Individual Economists

Trudeau Government Offers Free Access To National Parks For Migrants Only

Zero Hedge -

Trudeau Government Offers Free Access To National Parks For Migrants Only

Via The Post Millennial,

Parks Canada has decided to offer a real break in 2024 for people looking to enjoy some of Canada’s glorious outdoors and backwoods.

But only people who are newcomers and new Canadian citizens. In a Parks Canada post, the federal government agency announced that there will be “Free admission for newcomers to Canada and new Canadian citizens” in 2024. That applies to any park in Canada, from B.C. to Newfound and Labrador and there is no indication that free access is limited.

Other Canadians will continue to pay $151.25 for a season’s pass for up to seven family members or $75.25 for an individual season’s pass that is good for any federally owned park. A day pass for what is perhaps the best-known national park in Canada – in Banff, AB – is $11 a day.

Parks Canada lauds the deal on its site under the heading of “Explore spectacular Parks Canada places.”

“Using the Institute for Canadian Citizenship's Canoo mobile app, enjoy free admission to all places administered by Parks Canada across the country for one full year.

“Visit one of Canada's national historic sites, each telling a unique story to piece together the defining moments in the story of Canada.

Get back to nature and unwind amidst the spectacular scenery in Canada's national parks and marine conservation areas.

“Celebrate your arrival in Canada or your citizenship with great Canadian experiences. Check out some of the most awesome places in Canada. We look forward to welcoming you!”

However, Parks Canada does not define its terminology for those getting free access.

How “new” does a “new Canadian” need to be to be entitled to the deal? By definition, a new Canadian is a “recent immigrant” to Canada. But that is hardly specific.

And a newcomer to Canada can mean a “permanent resident” who is expecting someday to be a citizen; a refugee, who has been granted that status by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada or a “temporary resident,” who can include foreign students or temporary foreign workers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 21:40

Romney Cites Anti-Israel Posts As Latest Reason To Ban TikTok

Zero Hedge -

Romney Cites Anti-Israel Posts As Latest Reason To Ban TikTok

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

In a conversation with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) acknowledged that banning TikTok has such strong support in Congress because the social media platform has hurt Israel’s public relations battle.

"Some wonder why there was such overwhelming support for us to shut down, potentially, TikTok or other entities of that nature," Romney said at the McCain Institute this past Friday. "If you look at the postings on TikTok and the number of mentions of Palestinians relative to other social media sites, it’s overwhelmingly so among TikTok broadcasts."

The official justification for targeting TikTok is the thus far unfounded allegation that it’s a Chinese spy tool because its parent company, ByteDance, is based in China.

But Romney’s comments suggest the real purpose of the renewed push to ban the app after a similar effort failed years ago was to censor news coming out of Gaza and pro-Palestinian content.

Blinken blamed social media in general when asked by Romney why Israel was losing the global PR war. Palestinian journalists have been able to broadcast to the whole world the atrocities committed by Israel in Gaza using social media, including graphic videos of dead or wounded children being dug out of rubble following an Israeli airstrike.

"Now, of course, we’re on an intravenous feed of information with new impulses, inputs every millisecond," Blinken said.

"And, of course, the way this has played out on social media has dominated the narrative. You have a social media ecosystem, environment in which context, history, facts get lost and the emotion, the impact of images dominate. We can’t discount that, but I think it also has a very very challenging effect on the narrative."

A bill to ban TikTok was included in the $95 billion foreign military spending package President Biden signed into law last month. The legislation gives ByteDance nine months to sell TikTok, or else it will get banned. But ByteDance has vowed to fight the ban in court and said it would rather shutdown TikTok than sell.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 21:20

Bad-Loans Hit Record-High As Used-Car Prices Suffer Worst Bear-Market Ever

Zero Hedge -

Bad-Loans Hit Record-High As Used-Car Prices Suffer Worst Bear-Market Ever

A bear market in the used car market was confirmed in November and has since worsened through April. At the same time, negative equity values are hitting new record highs while auto insurance rates have soared the most since the mid-1970s. While gas prices at the pump are elevated, the environment to operate a vehicle is probably one of the worst ever. Just listen to Gen-Z and millennial users on X bitch and moan about $1,000 monthly car payments and other absurd costs associated with driving.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 198.4 in April, a 14% drop from one year ago. This is the index's lowest print since the first quarter of 2021. As for the bear market, the index is down 23% from the high and quickly falling - there could be air pockets given the rapid upward moves three years ago - and that demand has been suppressed given a high-interest rate environment. 

All vehicle segments of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down double digits year over year in April. Luxury was the only segment that was not hit the hardest, down just 12.9%. The worst-performing segment was compact cars, down 17.6% compared with last year, followed by midsize cars, down 16.8%, and pickups, down 15.2%. EVs were down 17.5%.

This is a significant worry for millions of Americans who bought cars during the pandemic mania, which basically involved spending free money provided by the Federal Reserve, only now discovering that their loans are plunging into underwater territory. 

According to a recent Edmunds note, 20% of new vehicle sales involving a trade-in had negative equity during the October-through-December period—the highest level since 2021. 

Negative equity values soared to a new record high of $6,064 during the period, a massive 46% increase from late 2021. 

We warned readers in 2023 about the worsening negative equity situation for heavily indebted drivers: 

Adding to the financial stress for drivers, there's also the concern that Joe Biden's sticky inflation continues to send auto insurance rates to the highest levels since the inflation shitstorm in the mid-1970s

We've pointed out that ridiculous repair bills for newer vehicles (cough, cough, EVs) are likely the main reason rates are higher. 

Right now, drivers are paralyzed as the average used car auto loans tracked by Bankrate surged again - now exceeding 8.5%.

The average new car loan has reached a record high of $40,000. 

In recent months, Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst for Edmunds, told Bloomberg: 

"We're in this situation where combined with the cost of the vehicles being so high and the interest rates being so historically high, you have a lot of people who are in bad car loans." 

To Yoon's point, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due in September topped 6.11%, the highest ever. 

Source: Bloomberg 

Out of all this gloom and doom for drivers. There's good news on the inflation front: falling Manheim used car prices will only result in a lower future print for the US CPI Used Car index. 

So the big question is when will the bear market in used car prices bottom? 

Car owners should certaily not be looking for any bailouts from The Fed anytime soon (or Biden, who is too busy paying off student loans). Higher rates and longer is the theme, no matter the jawboning, with less than two cuts now priced in for the whole of 2024 (down from over seven at the start of the year).

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 20:40

China's 2022 Military Spending Reaches $710 Billion, Over Triple What Beijing Announced

Zero Hedge -

China's 2022 Military Spending Reaches $710 Billion, Over Triple What Beijing Announced

By Frank Fang of Epoch Times

China’s communist regime spent $710.6 billion on its military in 2022, more than three times Beijing’s publicly stated totals, according to a report from the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

“Considering that the Pentagon has labeled China the ‘pacing challenge,’ this revelation should cause concern,” the April 29 report reads.

“When compared globally, China’s estimated $711 billion military budget illustrates that China is more of a ‘pacing threat’ than a ‘pacing challenge.’”

Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the AEI and the author of the report, explained that she came up with the figure based on her calculation after accounting for economic adjustments, including cheaper labor costs in China, and estimating “reasonable but uncounted expenditures.”

China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles are seen during a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019.

In 2022, the Chinese regime announced that its defense spending for the year would be $229 billion.

Beijing’s self-reported military spending should also include the money that it spent on its paramilitary organizations, Ms. Eaglen wrote, since these groups “are increasingly used in tandem with” the regime’s military, which is officially called the People’s Liberation Army.

She estimated that Beijing spent $45.2 billion on its People’s Armed Police Force and $2.1 billion on its China Coast Guard in 2022.

China doesn’t include other relevant expenditures related to its space forces, military satellites, or counter-space capabilities in its defense budget, according to the report.

“Given many satellites’ inherent dual-use capability and Beijing’s general adherence to a strategy of military-civil fusion in space policy, AEI’s model counted this entire budget as a military expenditure,” the report reads.

Ms. Eaglen estimated that China’s space budget in 2022 could have been $21 billion.

Other hidden expenditures included spending on military demobilization, retirement, and pensions, which the author estimated to total $46.1 billion. China likely spent more than $1.8 billion on continued construction of military facilities in the South China Sea and arms imports, according to the report.

A portion of the $711 billion spending also included military research and development expenditures, which Ms. Eaglen estimated to be $45.8 billion. However, she noted that the estimated military research and development spending could be much higher, considering the regime’s military-civil fusion (MCF) strategy, cyberespionage operations, and reliance on state-owned companies.

“If fully evaluated, Beijing’s expenditures via military-civil fusion and dual-use technology investments prove even the much larger $711 billion figure underestimates China’s military investments,” the report reads.

"Pacing Challenge"

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using the MCF strategy to acquire cutting-edge technologies, such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

According to the State Department, the regime is implementing the strategy through “licit and illicit means,” such as theft, to achieve military dominance. Private companies, joint research institutes, and academia are “being exploited” to help the CCP’s military advance, often “without their knowledge or consent,” the department warned.

“In just the past decade, however, China has managed to rapidly build sophisticated missile forces, surpass the United States by building the largest navy in the world, and catch up to and even exceed the United States in many other key national security areas,” the report reads.

“By calculating the true buying power behind the Chinese military budget, it’s easy to understand how Beijing can continue this unprecedented military buildup while, on paper, appearing to spend much less.”

In comparison, the United States spent $742.2 billion on its military in 2022, excluding supplemental spending, according to the report.

However, Ms. Eaglen noted that the approximately equal spending level between the two countries “plays to Beijing’s benefit.”

Continue reading at the Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 20:20

Russian Fuel Cargos Pile Up at Sea as South Korean Buyers Grow Cautious

Zero Hedge -

Russian Fuel Cargos Pile Up at Sea as South Korean Buyers Grow Cautious

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Russian oil product cargos are piling up at sea as their South Korean buyers grow reluctant to go through with their deals amid a government crackdown on sanction evasion, Bloomberg has reported, citing unnamed sources.

According to Kpler data, there are over 2 million barrels of Russian naphtha sitting off the coast of Oman, which is significantly higher than the weekly average for January and February, which came in at some 790,000 barrels.

The Bloomberg sources said that the buildup was caused by the South Korean government’s closer scrutiny of incoming fuel cargos, which has made local refiners and petrochemical producers wary of buying Russian naphtha.

The tightening sanctions on Russia's oil exports are raising freight costs for moving Russian crude. The estimated direct cost to deliver Russian cargoes now is around 6-8% of the price of a barrel of crude leaving the western ports in Russia for Asia, according to data from commodity price reporting agency Argus crunched by Bloomberg.

Argus estimated in March that shipping a barrel of Russian crude from a port in the Baltic Sea to China has cost around $14.50 since December, with more than half of this per-barrel cost attributable to the Western sanctions.

The likely directly related-to-sanction cost to hire tankers to transport Russian oil is estimated at about $773 million since the end of December 2023, based on shipments tracked by Bloomberg.

Before the war in the Ukraine Russia was the top supplier of naphtha for South Korean petrochemicals makers but the war has changed this, per the Bloomberg report. Now South Korean plastics producers are importing more naphtha from places such as the UAE, Malaysia, Singapore, and Tunisia. South Korean processors are also importing more naphtha from Kuwait and Oman.

Russia, for its part, is shipping more naphtha to China, according to Kpler, as well as Taiwan. Last month, Russian imports accounted for more than half of the total naphtha shipments that Taiwan took in.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 20:00

Rural Western North Carolina Community Protests 'Covert' Plans For EV Battery Plant

Zero Hedge -

Rural Western North Carolina Community Protests 'Covert' Plans For EV Battery Plant

Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A group of residents in western North Carolina are protesting their county board’s lack of transparency over furtive moves to welcome an electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing the residents believe would pollute their waters and ruin their scenic countryside.

A view of the southeast shore of Lake James in Morganton, NC, from the Fonta Flora Trail approximately three miles from the megasite where an EV battery plant could be constructed (Courtesy of Bill Connell).

In October 2023, the North Carolina state legislature allocated $35.8 million to Burke Development Inc. for the purchase of a 1,400-acre property on which to build an industrial megasite in Burke and McDowell counties.

Though the all-Republican board of Burke County Commissioners has made no official decision on approving an EV battery plant to be built within the megasite, Alan Wood, the CEO of Burke Development, alluded to the site’s potential for such a project, according to a local media report.

Mr. Wood listed several EV manufacturing plants sprouting up in the Southeast because of their proximity to a lithium mine in Kings Mountain, North Carolina, which a Charlotte-based chemical manufacturing Albemarle Corporation is set to reopen by 2026 with the help of a $90 million grant from the U.S. Department of Defence.

Since reports surfaced of the development, an organization called the Stop Burke-Lake James Megasite (Stop BLJM) was formed.

A petition with 2,859 signatures is circulating while Stop BLJM members speak out in county commissioner meetings.

In February, Burke County Manager Brian Epley held a Fireside Chat in response to the criticism in which he argued that there’s misinformation surrounding the project and that it’s a more minimal design than what’s been broadcast by those in opposition.

He pointed to country trends that highlight a need for economic development while addressing the dimensions of the project itself.

Economic development within the megasite will create jobs and increase the tax base in a county that will see challenges in the future with maintaining its workforce and population while facing current issues with “pockets of poverty,” he said.

Great Meadows, LLC., owns 1,400 acres of land comprising 14 parcels zoned for industrial, residential, and commercial use.

He said the largest parcel of land is 550 acres, 440 of which is zoned industrial, and the remaining 110 general business.

Out of the 550 acres, the commissioners decided that 165 acres could be developed for manufacturing, he said.

“From an economic development lens, that provides more than enough area to put the needed square footage there to make this a transformational economic development project to create the jobs that would be meaningful to Burke County and to create the tax base that would be meaningful to Burke County,” he said.

This future development would comprise 30 percent of the property, while 70 percent would remain undeveloped.

This undeveloped land would be used for the buffering of noise and light pollution, with room for setbacks for stream remediation and “innovative stormwater retention” that would keep the water source clean while maintaining a natural environment and wildlife habitat, he said.

‘Nature’s Playground’

However, Stop BLJM members aren’t convinced.

Lake James is where tourists come to recreate and residents live for a reason: its quiet rolling hills, panoramic clear skies, clean water, fresh mountain air, and rural community—unlike the more populated cities of Asheville and Charlotte. 

An EV battery plant would “devastate the area,” according to Stop BLJM members who spoke with The Epoch Times.

And the commissioners are making their decisions without any input from the residents, they said.

“It’s clear to me that it’s a boondoggle for personal gain of all of these local politicians, not for the benefit of those in the county or living nearby,” said Daniel Oberer, who owns a home in the area.

According to a report from the Foothills Conservancy of North Carolina, the Lake James Environmental Association, and the Catawba Riverkeepers, Lake James is already “a major economic driver” for the region and home to Lake James State Park in the city of Morganton, which takes in “over half a million visitors annually.”

Lake James is a 10.2 square mile reservoir with over 150 miles of shoreline that makes contact with the Pisgah National Forest.

It was engineered by Duke Power in the early 20th century to serve as a hydroelectric project and named for Duke University benefactor James Duke.

The lake is also fed by and drains into the Catawba River, classified by the State as ‘trout waters,’ and is a popular paddling and fishing destination,” the report stated. “The Catawba River and surrounding subwatershed areas are classified as a ‘water supply watershed for the City of Morganton.”

A tributary of the Catawba River near Lake James called the Muddy Creek borders some of the parcels of the Great Meadows property, the report said.

Having an EV battery plant on the watershed that could drain chemicals into a water supply for 26 counties downstream is just too risky, Stop BLJM members said.

We’re doing everything we can to stop it because once it goes in, the area will never be the same,” said Mr. Oberer.

From Lake James tourists can see the tallest peak of the Appalachian Mountains called Mount Mitchell, which reaches 6,684 feet above sea level and is ranked as the highest mountain east of the Mississippi River.

The area has come to be known as “Nature’s Playground” to locals and tourists alike.

The people fighting the development range from locals who fear their way of life will be irreparably destroyed to those who aren’t from the area but own properties there, Mr. Oberer said.

“We all have this common love for the area and common desire to protect God’s natural beauty, and to keep it for future generations to enjoy,” he said.

‘It’s Just a Bad Idea’

Bill Connell, who started the Stop BLJM petition on Change.org, said the commissioners have been “extremely covert.”

“They started this process well over two years ago and we knew nothing about it until last October, so we’re just defending ourselves at this point,” Mr. Connell said. “Now we’re looking into legal counsel and trying to get the public educated.”

Burke County residents have been kept in the dark, Roxanne Reep Fleetwood said.

“We go to meetings, we speak, and then the meetings are dismissed,” Ms. Fleetwood said, adding that the only ones who will benefit from the project are a few people in government and the landowner.

“The glaring problem with this is its location in the Catawba River basin for the Catawba River,” she said. “It’s what feeds our wells. It’s water that everyone drinks from. It goes 26 counties downstream. They can have every intention of keeping people safe but there’s no guarantee.”

In April, the U.S. Department of Labor issued a report finding the South Korean SK Battery Commerce plant in Commerce, Georgia—initially celebrated for its advancement in the Biden administration’s green energy initiative—had exposed employees to toxic chemical fumes even after they had suffered “potentially permanent respiratory damage” in an October 2023 fire.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration cited SK Battery for five violations.

Those violations included exposing workers to hydrofluoric acid, failing to train them on hazardous chemicals with respiratory hazards, and failing to train them on extinguishing lithium battery fires.

Ignited by the Biden administration’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, a battery belt is beginning to loop itself throughout the Southeast despite a lack of enthusiasm for EV cars.

According to the Pew Research Center, about half of consumers report they are unlikely to buy an EV vehicle, citing little confidence in the country’s infrastructure to support them.

Reports of charging issues in extreme weather, long waits at charging stations, and car malfunctions have slowed the EV industry’s progress since the Biden administration’s war on carbon emissions that scholars who question the narrative argue is erroneously blamed for what others believe to be climate change.

In addition to an EV battery plant, a Norfolk Southern rail line would need to be constructed to the plant that would pass near residents’ homes and wetlands, presumably carrying lithium and other chemical elements, Ms. Fleetwood said.

The railroad company has a poor safety record, which includes its 2022 derailment leading to a chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio, Ms. Fleetwood said.

According to a 2023 report, Norfolk Southern has seen an average of 163.6 derailments and 2.9 hazardous material releases annually.

“You can’t keep your water clean with a rail line that has a poor safety record that may be transporting lithium,” Ms. Fleetwood said. “And you can’t have tourism if the factory is at your gateway to this massive amount of unspoiled beautiful land which acts as a filter cleaning the water running into the Catawba River. It’s just a bad idea.”

Then there are the chemical elements—cadmium, lithium, magnesium, and cobalt—that must be expelled through the vent systems into the air and back into the ground, she said, which will ultimately find itself in the groundwater.

There are better ways for the commissioners to invest the taxpayers’ money, she said, such as spreading it throughout the county to facilitate the tourism industry that rivals what the EV plant would make without harming the environment or changing the character of the region.

“We are known for tourism and if this site is developed, all of that will go away,” Ms. Fleetwood said. 

‘Why All of This Deception?’

Joanna Kentch, another Stop BLJM member, has several questions related to the ethics of how the project has been handled, like who approved the funding for the megasite, where the money came from, why Commissioner Chairman Jeff Brittain and County Manager Brian Epley are on the Burke Development board that took the $35.6 million from the state, and why it seems the commissioners aren’t listening to the residents.

Why all of this deception, not telling us exactly what they plan to build on that site?” she asked. “They are using public funds and the taxpayers have every right to know what their money is being used for.”

Ms. Kentch said that since the October 2023 article alluding to the county’s ambitions for EV battery plant, the commissioners have been back-peddling and that the $35.6 million is just the beginning of what will cost taxpayers millions more to make the site “shovel-ready.”

They’ve been trying to take back these damning statements which was the primary reason the residents of Burke County got so upset,” Ms. Kentch said.

Ms. Kentch said the Fireside Chat was a mere “dog and pony show” in an attempt to frame the narrative around economic development.

“There are a lot of other ways to create jobs, and not at the expense of environmental disaster,” Ms. Kentch said.

In April, the commissioners rezoned the county to “conditional,” a proposal not recommended by the county planning board because “the language was too subjective,” according to Ms. Kentch.

The document states that a conditional zoning district “may be more or less restrictive” than general zoning.

“This means they can approve whatever they want, from residential to industrial, as with the case of the megasite,” Ms. Kentch said. “Now they can turn the remaining parcels to industrial without going through the steps of getting public comment before approving a rezoning application.”

According to Mr. Epley in his Fireside Chat, conditional rezoning means that the commissioners can regulate development standards such as uses, buffers, setbacks, and road access.

“However, Epley doesn’t mention that they can also approve dangerous access options such as railroad spurs, heavy industrial manufacturing uses, and other developments which would be considered hazardous and subject to public scrutiny under general zoning guidelines,” Ms. Kentch said.

For Ms. Kentch and other members of Stop BLJM, the rezoning was just another move by the county to pave the way for an EV battery factory while ignoring the opposition of Burke County residents.

Ms. Kentch said the issue over the megasite has led to two longtime commissioners getting voted out of office.

Stop BLJM-backed Republican candidates Brian Barrier and Mike Stroud won the primary election in March and now await the general election in November when the state will also choose between Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democrat state Attorney General Josh Stein for governor, bringing Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper’s two terms to a close.

‘They Think They Just Know Better’

Mr. Barrier was born and raised in Burke County. He served in the U.S. Army before later becoming the owner and publisher of Blue Ridge Christian News.

He told The Epoch Times that, as a conservative, he was fed up with big spending in government.

He ran a survey on social media to gauge residents’ view of the megasite project and found that out of 300 to 400 responses, “an overwhelming majority” were against it, he said.

He said a government board’s function is to provide essential services, adding that beyond that, government officials risk transgressing their roles as employees who work for the citizens who hired them.

“The commissioners have continued to build buildings, buy property, and overspend,” Mr. Barrier said. “I’m not saying everything they’ve done is terrible, but it’s not been fiscally conservative in providing essential services to the county.”

And like many local government projects, it’s done with “little transparency,” Mr. Barrier said.

He referenced South Carolina state Rep. Adam Morgan’s speech in the legislature highlighting what’s become a great divide between politicians and their constituents, who “want their tax money spent on core government functions” such as roads and schools instead of billion-dollar big corporation projects.

“They don’t want us in here trying to play this government planning thing where we in our bureaus can figure out where the jobs should be, who should be employed, how much money should be allocated where in the private sector,” he said. “It never works. It’s socialism. It’s never worked anywhere before, so what are we doing trying to do it here?”

Mr. Barrier said he couldn’t have said it better himself.

“These people get elected and then they think they just know better what’s best for the citizens regardless of what the citizens want,” Mr. Barrier said.  

If he had found that a majority of residents wanted an EV battery plant, he would have—despite his personal opinions—campaigned in favor of the development, he said.

But this isn’t the case, he added, and Stop BLJM may be putting the commissioners in a position where they will “be forced to listen.”

“I think they’ve brought up enough awareness and they may keep enough pressure on them that things will have to change,” Mr. Barrier said.

The Epoch Times contacted Burke County Manager Epley for comment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 19:00

Stan Druckenmiller Gives Bidenomics An "F"  

Zero Hedge -

Stan Druckenmiller Gives Bidenomics An "F"  

Billionaire investor and Duquesne Family Office Chairman & CEO Stan Druckenmiller slammed Bidenomics and warned the Federal Reserve and federal government "misdiagnosed Covid and thought it was -- we were going into a depression."

Druckenmiller has been irritated by the massive fiscal spending by the federal government, which we outlined last year as a "stealth stimulus" propelling Bidenomics. Meanwhile, Fed chair Jerome Powell has enabled the Bidenomics disaster as the government spends $1 trillion every 100 days. Now, with stagflationary threats emerging, the US economic situation is quickly deteriorating. 

CNBC Joe Kernen asked Druckenmiller: 

Let me ask you how this plays into to -- it's another I think issue of being, you know, things are going, well, and then we totally overspent in terms of fiscally as well in Bidenomics.

Druckenmiller responded:

If I was a professor, I'd give them an F. Basically, they misdiagnosed COVID and thought it was -- we were going into a depression. The Fed did, too. I worried about it, too, in early days. The Fed eventually pivoted, better late than never. Treasury -- Treasury is still acting like we're in a depression. It's interesting because I've studied the Great Depression and you had a private sector crippled with debt, with basically no new ideas. So interventionist policies were called for and were effective.

The private sector could not be more different today than it was in the Great Depression. Their balance sheets are fine. They're healthy. And have you ever seen more innovative ideas that the private sector could take advantage of? Now, you got Blockchain, you got AI, you've got the whole thing.

All government needed to do was get out of their way and let them innovate. Instead, they've spent and spent and spent, and my new fear now is that spending and the -- and the resulting interest rates on the -- on the debt that's been created are going to crowd out some of the innovation that otherwise would have -- would have taken place. 

We've got a 7 percent budget deficit at full employment. It's just -- it's unheard of...

Here's the clip of Druckenmiller speaking with Kernen about Bidenomics failures:

In macro, the consumer data just continues to worsen.

The latest consumer credit data published by the Federal Reserve shows credit growth just imploded as credit card APRs hit an all-time high. 

Meanwhile, total credit card debt jumped to a record high while the personal savings rate slid to a record low. 

Last week, one of the loudest stagflationary warnings printed when US GDP unexpectedly collapsed to just 1.6% in 1Q, down more than 50% from the Q4 print of 3.4%, the lowest print since Q2 2022. However, all-important core PCE for Q1 soared from 2.0% to 3.7%, suggesting the US was nearing a stagflationary recession.

The Biden team has understood this failure and dialed back "Bidenomics" propaganda in corporate media headlines. 

We suspect the Gen-Zers who voted for Biden in the first go around won't make that mistake again: "Bidenomics Failure Shows Up At Polls As Gen-Z Revolts Against Democrats." 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 18:40

Trojan Tomato: A New GMO Is Designed To Infiltrate America's Gardens

Zero Hedge -

Trojan Tomato: A New GMO Is Designed To Infiltrate America's Gardens

Authored by Sina McCullough via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As spring gardening approaches, a new contender has entered the fray—the genetically modified (GM) Purple Tomato. Unlike its GM predecessors, the GM Purple Tomato is not destined solely for the fields of commercial agriculture—it has made its debut in the backyards of home gardeners across the United States.

With claims of heightened antioxidant levels and potential health benefits, this novel creation has stirred both excitement and controversy among consumers and scientists alike. Biotech investors hope it can usher in a new era of public trust in genetically engineered foods while skeptics worry the tomatoes’ near-total lack of regulation or review may hide dangers to human health and/or the environment.

Development 

The GM Purple Tomato was engineered by scientists at Norfolk Plant Sciences in the UK. Led by biochemist Cathie Martin and her team, the project aimed to harness the natural properties of anthocyanins, compounds found in blueberries and blackberries, to enhance the nutritional profile of tomatoes.

In this 2008 handout photo illustration, genetically modified Purple Tomatoes are seen beside red tomatoes. (John Innes Centre UK via Getty Images)

Using genetic engineering techniques, Martin and her colleagues inserted two genes responsible for purple coloration in edible snapdragon flowers into tomato plants. This process enabled the tomatoes to express the genes from the snapdragon and, subsequently, produce high levels of anthocyanins, thereby imbuing the tomatoes with a distinct purple hue and potentially enhanced health benefits.

According to Norfolk Healthy Produce, the U.S. subsidiary of Norfolk Plant Sciences, the Purple Tomatoes are a “rich source of antioxidants due to the increased content of anthocyanins. Unlike domesticated tomatoes which contain anthocyanins in the skin, the Purple Tomato contains anthocyanins throughout the whole tomato.

The genesis of the GM Purple Tomato marks a significant milestone in agricultural biotechnology. Unlike previous GM crops primarily targeted at commercial producers, this tomato is the first GM food crop directly marketed to home gardeners in the United States, offering an opportunity for individuals to engage with biotechnology in their own backyard.

According to Norfolk Healthy Produce, more than 13,000 Purple Tomato seed orders have already shipped.

Regulatory Approval 

The GM Purple Tomato was deregulated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 2022. According to a statement from the USDA, the GM Purple Tomato is not subject to regulation by the USDA because it does not pose a plant pest risk:

With respect to Norfolk Plant Sciences’ purple tomato, we did not identify any plausible pathways to increased plant pest risk compared to other cultivated tomatoes and issued a response letter indicating the plant is not subject to regulation.

In 2023, the Purple Tomato received a “no questions” letter from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which means the Purple Tomato is considered “generally recognized as safe” (GRAS) and, therefore, does not require premarket review or approval by the FDA.

To qualify for GRAS status, Norfolk Plant Sciences submitted data from tests conducted internally.

Norfolk Plant Sciences created the Purple Tomato by splicing genes from a purple snapdragon into a tomato. (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock, Getty Images)

The lack of safety testing by the USDA and FDA, as well as reliance on data generated by the company that will profit from approval of its own product, has led to some experts calling for a more comprehensive safety assessment.

Safety Concerns and Health Claims 

Data provided to the FDA by Norfolk Plant Sciences demonstrates the company conducted various safety tests. However, critics argue the tests are insufficient to guarantee the safety of the Purple Tomato for human consumption.

According to an FDA memo dated June 13, 2023, tests conducted by Norfolk Plant Sciences mainly focused on six areas.  Of those, four were relatively straightforward while two have raised safety concerns among experts, according to GM Watch.

1. PCR and Southern blot analysis were conducted by Norfolk Plant Sciences to determine if the snapdragon foreign DNA was inserted into the tomato DNA.

  • The company (Norfolk Plant Sciences) stated that insertion of the foreign DNA was confirmed.

2. PCR and sequence comparison of DNA samples were conducted to confirm the stability of the inheritability of the insertion across generations. Plants were bred to determine if the purple phenotype was inherited in a Mendelian segregation fashion.

  • The company stated the purple phenotype was inheritable.

3. Compositional analysis was conducted to determine if the Purple Tomato contained similar nutrients at similar levels compared with non-GMO tomatoes, including protein, fat, carbohydrate, fiber, minerals, carotenoids, vitamins, and alpha-tomatine.

  • The company determined the levels of most of the nutritional components to be similar or with “minor differences.”
(The Epoch Times)

4. Norfolk Plant Sciences assessed dietary exposure levels assuming the complete replacement of red tomatoes in the human diet with the Purple Tomato for two days.

  • The company concluded the level of dietary exposure to anthocyanins is the same as consuming high-anthocyanin foods.  For example, 8 ounces of Purple Tomato juice is equivalent to consuming 1 cup of blueberries.
The Controversial Tests

1. Bioinformatic analyses were utilized to determine if any open reading frames were generated or disrupted by inserting the foreign DNA. Norfolk Plant Sciences searched the DNA sequences flanking the insertion sequence in the tomatoes.

  • The company reported no open reading frames flanking the insertion location.

Since Norfolk Plant Sciences did not assess possible damage to the entire genome using advanced laboratory techniques, geneticist Michael Antoniou expressed concern in a statement published by GM Watch.

“There’s no evidence that the developers of the GM purple tomato have carried out the kind of molecular analyses (proteomics and metabolomics) that could help establish whether they only got the change they want, with no unintended changes. As a result, we don’t know if these tomatoes are safe to eat,” said Mr. Antoniou.

“We must also bear in mind that the GM transformation process (plant tissue culture and plant cells transformation) will inevitably give rise to hundreds if not thousands of sites of unintended DNA damage (mutations). These wide scale mutations can change patterns of gene function and alter biochemistry and composition, with unknown downstream health consequences,” he said.

2. Assessment of new peptides of equal or greater than 30 amino acids at the insertion site of the foreign DNA was conducted to rule out toxicity or allergenicity concerns.

  • The company identified one “putative” peptide, however, they stated, “this peptide has no homology to any known allergen or protein and there was no evidence this sequence is transcribed in tomato.” They concluded the results “do not raise food safety concerns.”

Allergenicity is an ongoing concern regarding the genetic modification of food. For example, a study published in Nature in 1999 reported that bean plants were genetically modified to produce higher levels of methionine and cysteine but were discarded because the expressed protein of the transgene was highly allergenic.

While Norfolk Plant Sciences did not identify a match with any known allergens, that does not guarantee the peptide formed through the process of gene modification is not an allergen. Given that nearly 11 percent of adults and 5.6 million children in the United States have food allergies, it may be prudent to apply the precautionary principle when modifying our food’s genetic makeup.

The Test That Everyone Talked About

Although not included in the 2023 FDA memo, Norfolk Plant Sciences, in conjunction with Cathie Martin, published a pilot feeding study in 2008 in Nature Biotechnology that examined the effects of Purple Tomato supplementation on the life span of cancer-susceptible mice.

According to the study, mice fed the GM tomato lived longer—by an average of 40 days than those fed non-GM red tomatoes.

Publication of the pilot study prompted the John Innes Centre to publish a press release titled, “Purple tomatoes may keep cancer at bay.” (Norfolk Plant Sciences is a spinoff company from the John Innes Centre.)

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 18:20

7 Numbers That Clearly Reveal The Direction That America Has Chosen

Zero Hedge -

7 Numbers That Clearly Reveal The Direction That America Has Chosen

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Over the past several decades, America’s culture has been transformed at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking.  When I was growing up, I was convinced that I believed in a shared set of national values that most other Americans also embraced.  But in our day and age those values have been discarded and now people that see the world the way that I do are clearly not in the majority any longer.  I know that a lot of people out there may not want to hear that our national values have been turned upside down, but it is the truth.  Those that sought to “fundamentally transform” this country have succeeded, and at this point “American values” are vastly different from the “American values” that I cherished as a young boy. 

The following are 7 numbers that clearly reveal the direction that America has chosen…

#1 There is more political chaos in our nation than there has ever been in my entire lifetime, and more than 40 percent of U.S. voters actually believe that a “second civil war” is likely within the next five years…

More than four-in-ten US voters say the country is likely to get ripped apart in a second civil war within five years, a shocking new survey reveals.

The Rasmussen Reports poll shows that 41 percent eye a civil conflict, compared to 49 percent who say it’s not likely. Another 10 percent said they were not sure.

That amounts to 106 million US adults saying civil war is on the horizon.

The survey comes against a backdrop of mounting violence on US college campuses, where pro-Palestine protestors clash with law enforcers, conservatives, some Jewish students and others.

#2 According to a recent Gallup survey, only 36 percent of Americans approve of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza…

After narrowly backing Israel’s military action in Gaza in November, Americans now oppose the campaign by a solid margin. Fifty-five percent currently disapprove of Israel’s actions, while 36% approve.

The latest results are from a March 1-20 survey. The Israel-Hamas war has continued for five months and has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians and over 1,000 Israelis. Major parts of Gaza have been destroyed, complicating efforts to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians still living there. The United Nations and international community, including the Biden administration, have called for a cease-fire, but the two warring sides have been unable to agree.

#3 65 percent of Americans do not approve of the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade…

About two-thirds (65%) oppose the 2022 Supreme Court decision, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, and 34% approve, numbers that have remained effectively unchanged in CNN’s polling across the nearly two years since the ruling. Those who strongly disapprove of the decision continue to outnumber those who strongly approve by a more than 2-to-1 margin.

A 69% majority who disapprove of overturning Roe, including 82% of those who strongly disapprove, say that federal politicians should work to pass laws ensuring national abortion access. Those who support the ruling largely say federal politicians shouldn’t take action on the issue: 59% say laws on abortion should be left up to the states, with 29% in favor of further restrictions to abortion access nationwide. New national restrictions are supported by just about one-quarter of Republicans, White Evangelical Christians and those who describe themselves as conservative.

#4 More than 20 percent of Generation Z adults (22.3 percent to be specific) now identify as LGBTQ+

Overall, each younger generation is about twice as likely as the generation that preceded it to identify as LGBTQ+. More than one in five Gen Z adults, ranging in age from 18 to 26 in 2023, identify as LGBTQ+, as do nearly one in 10 millennials (aged 27 to 42). The percentage drops to less than 5% of Generation X, 2% of baby boomers and 1% of the Silent Generation.

Bisexuality is the most common LGBTQ+ status among Generation Z, millennials and Generation X. Fifteen percent of all Generation Z adults — representing more than two-thirds of those with an LGBTQ+ identification — are bisexual.

#5 According to the Daily Mail, the number of transgender troops in the U.S. Army has doubled since 2020…

The Pentagon has spent more than $26million treating transgender troops since 2020, official records show.

The number of US army staff with gender dysphoria has doubled in that time — from around 1,800 to 3,700, according to DoD data seen by DailyMail.com.

In the past three years, $17.5m in taxpayer money was spent on psychotherapy for trans service people and $1.5m went towards hormone drugs.

A further $7.6m funded gender-affirming surgeries, including facial tweaks to make a recruit more masculine or feminine, and the removal or creation of breasts and genitals.

#6 By a vote of 692 to 51, the United Methodist Church has voted to approve LGBTQ clergy and same sex weddings in their churches

The United Methodist Church, one of the largest Protestant denominations in the U.S., has voted to repeal its ban on LGBTQ clergy as well as prohibitions on its ministers from officiating at same-sex weddings.

Delegates overwhelmingly approved the changes, 692 to 51, during the United Methodist Church’s General Conference.

The meeting is taking place this week in Charlotte, N.C. after the pandemic delayed the 2020 General Conference where these decisions had been slated to take place.

#7 Only 3.6 million babies were born in the U.S. last year, and the birth rate is now at the lowest level ever recorded…

The birth rate in the US has declined to a new low, according to data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The figures show that fewer than 3.6 million babies were born in the US last year, the lowest amount since 1979 and equating to the lowest fertility rate EVER recorded.

The CDC analysed the 2023 data and found that the birth rate is down 2 percent on the previous year.

If you go back to 1960, the average U.S. woman gave birth to 3.65 children during her lifetime.

Today, that number has fallen all the way down to 1.6.

But we need a birth rate of at least 2.1 just to keep replacing ourselves.

If we didn’t have so much immigration going on, our population would be steadily falling.

In my latest book entitled “Chaos”, I have an entire chapter about the population collapse that is happening in wealthy nations all over the industrialized world.

It is often said that children are the future of our society, but we have greatly devalued marriage and parenthood.

Meanwhile, birth rates are still very high in many nations in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Given enough time, those that are willing to multiply would become increasingly powerful and those that are not willing to multiply would become less powerful.

But the fact that we aren’t reproducing ourselves is just one of the existential problems that we are facing.

At this point we live in an upside down society that has rejected the values that this nation was founded upon.

If we stay on this path, there isn’t going to be a future for America, and that is the truth.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 17:00

WTI Dips After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Builds

Zero Hedge -

WTI Dips After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Builds

Oil prices ended the day flat today (after touching the lowest level in almost two months on news reports said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated OPEC+ could move to raise crude production).

Novak told Russia's Interfax news agency that the possibility of increasing oil production within the OPEC+ framework was still being analyzed.

"It always depends on the current situation; the balance of supply and demand. Everything is analyzed. Now there is no need to forecast anything. We need to look at how the market is feeling," he said, according to Interfax.

OPEC+ has largely been expected to roll over existing voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day beyond the second quarter.

But crude recovered, finding technical support ahead of tonight's API inventory data.

API

  • Crude +509k (-1.40mm exp)

  • Cushing +1.339mm

  • Gasoline +1.46mm

  • Distillates +1.713mm

Inventories rose across the whole complex according to API...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tested its 100DMA for the third day in a row, and rejected it (for the third day in a row)...

And dipped after the inventory builds...

Overall, "oil is lower because a renewed battle between Israel and Hamas, in isolation, does not really affect oil-producing nations," Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA Research, told MarketWatch.

If Iran is "subsequently encouraged to do more direct attacks on Israel, it may be different," he said, but the market is "discounting this possibility."

Finally, President Biden will use crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve should the need arise, energy adviser Amos Hochstein has said, noting there was enough oil in the reserve.

"We have been replenishing into the SPR for the last several months. I think we have sufficient supply in the SPR to address any kind of concern in the economy if we need it," Hochstein said, speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference, as quoted by Reuters.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 16:43

Withdrawing From The Rat-Race Is Going Global

Zero Hedge -

Withdrawing From The Rat-Race Is Going Global

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Mere mortals are left in a hopeless situation. In response, they're withdrawing from the competition en masse.

The world has changed over the past two generations in ways that don't fit the heavily promoted narratives of "growth" and "progress." The "growth" and "progress" narratives hold that everything is getting better in every way and every day--next stop, Mars!--but if we consider everyday life, a much different picture emerges.

1. Globalization shifted high-pay work overseas to the benefit of capital, who reaped the profits from global wage arbitrage and to the detriment of workers in developed-nation economies.

The conventional-economic apologists glorified this as a net positive: everyone who lost their jobs to globalization would move up the food chain and get jobs as currency traders, highly paid tech workers, etc.

2. In reality, most were left with lower pay, precarious jobs as developed economies were producing ever larger cohorts of elites--college graduates and increasingly, those with advanced degrees--competing for those highly paid jobs.

Laid-off production-service workers could not compete with the growing army of credentialed elites for the remaining secure, highly paid jobs.

3. At the same time, the lower levels of the university-educated elites could no longer compete due to the overproduction of elites described by historian-author Peter Turchin as a key destabilizing dynamic in eras of social disorder. Two generations ago, a PhD was scarce enough to guarantee a secure job in academia, government or industry. Today, even a PhD from an elite university is little more than a ticket to enter the next round of cut-throat competition for the few tenure-track positions available.

4. This competition for the remaining secure, highly paid jobs was intensified by another change: the mass entry of women into the labor force in the 1970s led to the rise of households in which both spouses had well-compensated jobs in the upper reaches of the economy. These households had far more resources to pour into the advancement of their children, and a heightened awareness of the winner-take-all nature of elite competition.

5. As this chart from a Financial Times article depicts, the net result is the Millennial generation is highly unequal in wealth and prospects. Two generations ago, about 20% of the workforce had a college diploma; that percentage has roughly doubled, even as the number of jobs that actually require a university education to do the job has declined. Those with the support of two professional parents entered the competition as early as kindergarten and continued apace into their mid-20s, leaving their less-prepared competitors in the dust.

Meanwhile, labor's share of the economy's income has been declining for 50 years, leaving less income, fewer benefits and less security to divide among the workforce.

6. Concurrent with hyper-globalization, the hyper-financialization of the economy generated competition for productive assets and real-world assets such as housing. Workers in the low-pay, insecure reaches of the economy cannot compete with the wealthy elites (the top 10% own 90% of financial assets) for housing or other assets, while this credit-driven bubble has pushed prices higher, further reducing the purchasing power of wages.

Where one secure income was once enough to support a middle class household that owned the family home and sent the children to college, it now takes two secure incomes to support even the lowest rung of middle class expectations.

7. At the same time, society lost respect for essential work in favor of digital visibility. Validation, respect and being recognized for one's work are no longer available for those doing the work that keeps civilization functioning; recognition and admiration--and envy--are reserved for those with high visibility on social media or mass media.

8. This competition for visibility is not only cut-throat, it is artificial. Reserving recognition and respect for the few with high visibility in the world of screens has generated a great many perverse outcomes. Since mere mortals cannot possibly compete, every competitor must present an artificial self that is a pastiche of what's considered essential to gain media visibility: not just being attractive, but super-attractive, not just wealthy but super-wealthy, not just talented but super-talented, and so on.

Mere mortals are left in a hopeless situation. In response, they're withdrawing from the competition en masse. This abandonment of the competition is largely beneath the surface, as the apologists' happy-story narrative collapses once we recognize the hopelessness and the solution--withdrawal from the economy and society.

I'll have more to say on this in my next post.

*  *  *

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 16:20

'Clothes Off, Bra On, Missionary Position': Stormy Goes Into Specifics During Trump Trial Testimony

Zero Hedge -

'Clothes Off, Bra On, Missionary Position': Stormy Goes Into Specifics During Trump Trial Testimony

Update (1400ET): Daniels went into further detail about her alleged encounter with Trump, testifying that at one point she went to the bathroom in a hotel room and emerged to find Trump waiting for her in his underwear.

"He was just up on the bed like this," she said, pulling her leg up to her waist on the witness stand. She described the experience as feeling "like a fun house," and felt things moving in slow motion despite not being drunk or on drugs.

"I had my clothes and my shoes off. I believe my bra was still on. We were in missionary position," Stormy said of the alleged sexual encounter, to which Trump's attorneys objected, and Judge Merchant sustained. According to Politico, "one female juror looks uncomfortable with the comments and is looking away while holding her forehead."

When asked about how she ended up having sex with Trump, Daniels testified that she was baffled, but "I felt to myself, 'great, I put myself in this bad situation," adding "I just think I blacked out."

*  *  *

Update (1140ET): As expected, Stormy Daniels (real name Stephanie Clifford) was the second witness called during Tuesday's Trump hush-money trial in Manhattan - telling the jury that she met Trump at a 2006 celebrity golf tournament.

"Every person who was at the golf course came through ... It was a very brief encounter on the course," she said, adding that Trump took a liking to her after she was introduced to him as not just a porn actress, but also a porn director.

"You must be the smart one," Trump allegedly told her.

Daniels said that at the golf event, Trump's bodyguard asked her if she'd like to have dinner with Trump that night, to which she says she replied: "Fuck no."

She then appeared to compliment Trump somewhat, testifying that he showed interest in the details beyond the adult film industry beyond the sex.

"He was very interested in a lot of the business aspects of it, which I thought was very cool," she said - alleging that she told Trump that pornos have real scripts and are real movies.

"It’s not just, ‘Oh, sorry Mr. Pizza Boy,’" she said.

During her testimony, Trump became visibly upset - shaking his head when Daniels says Trump told her that he and Melania Trump don't sleep in the same bed anymore.

When Daniels told jurors that she "swatted" Trump's ass with a magazine during an encounter in Lake Tahoe, Trump appeared to mouth "Bullshit," Politico reports.

*  *  *

Stormy Daniels is "likely" to testify on Tuesday in Trump's hush money trial, his attorney Clark Brewster told the Associated Press.

In response, Trump posted to Truth Social - then deleted - an angry response, saying "I have just recently been told who the witness is today. This is unprecedented, no time for lawyers to prepare. No judge has ever run a trial in such a biased and partisan way."

According to Politico, "Trump lawyer Susan Necheles said prosecutors told Trump’s defense that Stormy Daniels will be the second witness today. The lawyers, outside the presence of the jury, are now re-arguing about whether Daniels will be permitted to testify in detail about her alleged sexual encounter with Trump."

Daniels was paid $130,000 by former Trump attorney and personal fixer, Michael Cohen, in the closing weeks of Trump's 2016 Republican presidential campaign, over what she says was a sexual encounter in July 2006.

Daniels’ testimony, even if sanitized for a courtroom setting and stripped of tell-all details, is by far the most-awaited spectacle in a trial that has toggled back and forth between tabloidesque elements and dry recordkeeping details. Her turn on the witness stand will represent a remarkable moment legally and politically, with courtroom testimony from an adult film performer about an intimidate encounter she says had with Trump adding to the long line of historic firsts in this case. -AP

Cohen paid Daniels after her previous attorney, Keith Davidson, threatened to have her make on-the-record statements to the National Enquirer or on television about the alleged sexual encounter. National Enquirer editor Dylan Howard alerted boss David Pecker - who told Cohen that Daniels was threatening to go public, after she had previously sought to sell her story to another celebrity gossip magazine in 2011, Life & Style, AP continues.

Trump's deleted post came one day after the judge in the case, Juan Merchan, threatened to throw Trump in jail if he continued to violate a gag order in the case.

"Your continued violations of this court's lawful order threaten to interfere with the administration of justice in constant attacks, which constitute a direct attack on the rule of law. I cannot allow that to continue," Merchan said on Monday.

Trump appeared to call his bluff, telling the press outside the courtroom that "Frankly, you know what, our Constitution is much more important than jail. It’s not even close. I’ll do that sacrifice any day."

On Monday, the jury heard from two witnesses; former Trump Organization controller Jeffrey McConney, who explained the process that the company used to reimburse payments that were allegedly meant to suppress embarrassing stories from surfacing, which were then logged as legal expenses in a way that Manhattan prosecutors said broke the law.

That said, McConney also said that Trump did not personally ask him to log them as legal expenses. What's more, Keith Davidson, Stormy's former lawyer, testified that the payments weren't "hush-money," but was instead a "consideration."

Trump has been found in contempt twice for a total of 10 violations of the gag order.

Trump has denied having sex with Daniels, and previously referred to her as "horseface."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 16:07

Kashkari & Consumer Credit Curtail Stock & Bond Gains

Zero Hedge -

Kashkari & Consumer Credit Curtail Stock & Bond Gains

Another quiet macro day (although an ugly picture was painted late on by the unexpectedly weak revolving credit increase - potentially signaling a US consumer who really has hit their limit).

Some FedSpeak wiped a little lipstick off the early pig's squeeze higher as Kashkari seemed to offer both sides some hope (but it spoiled the fun with the 'we could hike' line):

“It’s a little too soon to declare that we’re definitely stalled out [on disininflation],” Kashkari says on Bloomberg Television.

“The most likely scenario is we sit here for an extended period of time,” he added later at the Milken Institute Global Conference.

“If inflation starts to tick back down or we saw some marked weakening in the labor market then that might cause us to cut back on interest rates.”

“Or if we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at 3% and that we need to go higher [in rates], we would do that if we needed to,” he added.

Stocks reversed their gains (leaving only squeezable Small Caps higher). Selling pressure in the last few minutes really took the shine off...

Goldman's trading desk highlighted the fact that their buyback desk was running at 1.4x ytd daily avg notional executed (Equating to $5.5b of US equities purchased street wide on daily basis). They also added that ETF and Swaps desks are much more active than cash and dominated by HF activity (short hedges getting scaled back).

The post-Powell resurgence of Mag7 stocks stalled today...

Source: Bloomberg

...and 'most shorted' stocks flatlined as algos could not ignite any momentum...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury bonds also reversed on Kashkari's comments (yields reversing higher to almost erase earlier declines)...

Source: Bloomberg

While stocks and bonds reversed on that, rate-cut expectations were stoic...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the first time in 5 days (but only modestly)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and the dollar's gains were gold's losses...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was quiet... too quiet.. today, hovering just above $63,000...

Source: Bloomberg

...after a second day in a row of net inflows...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were flat on the day, recovering from losses during the EU session...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, with copper top of mind for many, we brushed off a oldie-but-a-goodie chart - comparing copper/gold to 10Y yields...

Source: Bloomberg

Either copper is very cheap (relative to gold) or 10Y yields are too high (i.e. growth/flation under-priced in copper and/or over-priced in bonds).

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 16:00

Pfizer Stock Hit After Boy Dies Of Cardiac Arrest During Gene Therapy Trial

Zero Hedge -

Pfizer Stock Hit After Boy Dies Of Cardiac Arrest During Gene Therapy Trial

Stock in Pfizer dropped on Tuesday after a young boy receiving experimental gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy died during the trial.

According to STAT News, Pfizer has yet to determine exactly what happened or how the boy died Pfizer has confirmed that the boy suffered cardiac arrest, and is pausing crossing over patients in its randomized phase 3 trial of the treatment in older boys, according to the report. The company will, for now, stop dosing patients who initially received a placebo with the gene therapy after a year.

Pfizer is expected to announce data from the study in the upcoming weeks.

Of note, in 1999 Jesse Gelsinger was the first person publicly identified as having died during a clinical trial for gene therapy - which caused the FDA to shutter human genetic research at Penn's Institute for Gene Therapy.

Shares in the pharmaceutical giant took an immediate hit on the news.

Developing...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 15:41

Shocking Collapse In Credit Card Debt Growth Just As Card APRs Hit All Time High

Zero Hedge -

Shocking Collapse In Credit Card Debt Growth Just As Card APRs Hit All Time High

After several months of wild swings in US consumer debt, culminating with last month's jump in credit card debt to a new all time high despite record high credit card rates, in March households finally hit a brick wall because according to the latest consumer credit data published by the Federal Reserve moments ago, in the last month of Q1, total consumer debt rose by a paltry $6.274 billion, which was not only nearly a more than 60% miss to consensus estimates of $15.0 billion...

... but also a dramatic slowdown from February, tumbling by almost $9BN, the biggest monthly drop in the rate of change in 2024.

But it was when looking into the details of the report, we find something remarkable: while non-revolving credit rose a modest $6.1BN, up a bit from February's $4.3BN, and exactly half the $12.2BN average monthly increase in nonrevolving credit over the past decade...

... which is to be expected in a time when student debt continues to shrink due to illegal debt discharges by the Biden admin (which is defying SCOTUS and continues to forgive billions in student loans) while auto loans are barely rising due to record interest rates...

... what was the biggest shock in today's data was the absolute collapse in revolving credit growth, i.e., credit card debt, which plunged from a $10.7BN increase in February - one of the biggest monthly prints on record - to barely positive, or $152 million, the smallest monthly increase since the covid crash!

Of course with the Fed refusing to cut rates - for good reason - the brutal slowdown in new credit card debt is hardly a surprise since as the Fed also reported that in Q1, the average rate across all commercial banks on all credit card amounts just hit a new record high of 21.59%, which is a vivid reminders that while banks are happy to hike credit card rates, they rarely if ever cut them, and it's also one of the main reasons why Goldman's trading desk just went bearish on US consumers.

Yet with consumers ever more strapped for actual cash and equity, as the personal savings rate in the US has collapsed from over 5% to 3.2% - the lowest since 2022 - in just a few months...

... there is only so much more credit card maxing out that can take place before reality finally sets in, as can be seen in the next and perhaps most striking chart yet: total credit card debt is record high while the personal savings rate is record low!

Then again, with an election on the horizon - one which ensures that any credit-card fueled spending must be encouraged - don't be surprised if the White House instructs banks to just ignore soaring delinquency and charge-off rates...

... as discussed previously in "These Are The 5 Charts The FDIC Does Not Want You Paying Attention To", only for the hammer to fall on the first day of Trump's new presidency.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 15:40

One Third Of Stanford Students OK With Violence To Shut Down Speech; Report

Zero Hedge -

One Third Of Stanford Students OK With Violence To Shut Down Speech; Report

Authored by Samantha Swenson via The College Fix,

More than one third of Stanford University students say using physical violence to stop a speech is acceptable in at least some circumstances, according to a new report.

The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression conducted the survey after federal Judge Kyle Duncan’s speech on campus was shouted down last year.  The report evaluated students’ perspectives about free speech on campus and protests in the aftermath of the event.

FIRE Chief Research Advisor Sean Stevens told The College Fix the research found “considerably higher” support for canceling a speaker among Stanford students when compared to their peers nationwide.

The survey found 54 percent of Stanford students believed Duncan’s speech to the law school’s Federalist Society chapter should have been canceled by the administration. Additionally, 75 percent said shouting down a speaker to prevent them from speaking was acceptable in some circumstances.

Meanwhile, 36 percent said the same about using physical violence to stop a speech, the report found.

Since the incident last year, “the percentage of conservative students who expressed comfort expressing their views on a controversial political topic in the classroom or on social media dropped precipitously, so did the percentage of conservative students who expressed comfort disagreeing with their professor on a controversial political topic both publicly and privately,” Stevens said.

An earlier survey found 45 percent of conservative students were comfortable publicly disagreeing with a professor, but this dropped to 6 percent following the disruption of Duncan’s speech, according to FIRE’s report.

“This indicates that the shout down has made it clear to a portion of students that certain viewpoints are not welcome at Stanford,” Stevens told The Fix.

Stevens said FIRE has been “encouraged by how Stanford has responded to the Judge Duncan shout down.”

“But, we also think recent trends nationwide in campus deplatforming attempts are very concerning, and do not think Stanford — even with their new found respect for the First Amendment — will be immune to further attempts to deplatform speakers,” he said.

Further, Stevens said, “It doesn’t matter if the speaker is on the left or the right, a freshman or a federal judge. Incidents like the Judge Duncan shout down aren’t isolated affairs, but symptoms of a larger problem with campus free speech culture.”

The Fix emailed Stanford University twice in the past two weeks, asking about the survey, its safety precautions for speakers, and its outlook on free speech on campus. It did not respond.

Stanford Law School’s Federalist Society, which hosted the event with Duncan, also did not respond to two email requests for comment in the past two weeks asking about the survey and the free speech atmosphere on campus.

Shouting down speakers has become a problem at universities in recent years. A similar incident took place at Yale Law School in 2022 when protesters disrupted a Federalist Society event with Alliance Defending Freedom attorney Kristen Waggoner, who students alleged put queer students “at risk of harm.”

This spring, protesters also disrupted Republican Rep. Mike Collins’ speech at the University of Georgia and Democrat Rep. Jamie Raskin’s talk at the University of Maryland, with some criticizing the lawmakers’ actions on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 14:40

Title IX Rule Change On Gender Triggers Lawsuits From 15 States

Zero Hedge -

Title IX Rule Change On Gender Triggers Lawsuits From 15 States

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Republican-led states are suing the Biden administration and advising schools to ignore the new federal Title IX changes that expand sex discrimination protection to students who identify as the opposite sex, or transgender.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock, Alejandro Heredia/The Epoch Times, Courtesy of Lynn Fitch, Terri Wu/The Epoch Times, Darren Abate/AP Photo, Matthew Pearson/Cpi Studios For The Epoch Times)

The rule change, published on April 19, formalizes the Department of Education’s redefinition of the meaning of sex to include gender identity.

The changes, which go into effect Aug. 1, give males identifying as female the right to use female restrooms, locker rooms, and join female-only organizations. Under the new rule, “harassment” can include the use of biologically accurate pronouns.

Title IX is a landmark 1972 civil rights law meant to protect females from discrimination based on sex in federally funded educational programs and provide them equal opportunities.

Schools and colleges that fail to comply with Title IX stand to lose federal dollars.

This week, 15 states have filed lawsuits accusing the federal government of overreach and changing the nature of the original law.

“I’m going to be really clear. President Biden deciding to rewrite Title IX is one of the most radical and illegal moves we’ve ever seen from the federal government,” Oklahoma State Superintendent Ryan Walters said at a state board meeting in April.

“It’s an attack on our states. It’s an attack on our families. And it’s an attack on our young women and girls,” he said.

Governors and education chiefs in Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Louisiana, Montana, and South Carolina have also told their school districts to ignore the new definition.

In a letter to President Biden, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott rebuked the president’s “abuse of authority.”

“I am instructing the Texas Education Agency to ignore your illegal dictate,” Mr. Abbott, a Republican, wrote. 

“Your rewrite of Title IX not only exceeds your constitutional authority, but it also tramples laws that I signed to protect the integrity of women’s sports by prohibiting men from competing against female athletes.”

Federal vs. State

The Biden administration heralded the rule change as inclusive and a matter of fairness for all students.

“For more than 50 years, Title IX has promised an equal opportunity to learn and thrive in our nation’s schools free from sex discrimination,” Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in an April statement.

High school students line up for their graduation ceremony in Uvalde, Texas, on June 24, 2022. (Jordan Vonderhaar/Getty Images)

“These final regulations build on the legacy of Title IX by clarifying that all our nation’s students can access schools that are safe, welcoming, and respect their rights,” he said.

The American Civil Liberties Union’s deputy legal director Louise Melling applauded the definition change to include young people who identify as transgender.

“At a critical time, when trans youth are being used by politicians as a punching bag, the final rule issues an important reminder that schools cannot discriminate based on gender identity, transgender status, or sexual orientation,” he said.

On the other hand, the rule changes clash with laws in at least 11 conservative states that prohibit gender-confused males from using female facilities.

Laws requiring students to use the restroom corresponding to their sex are on the books in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Utah’s new bathroom law will go into effect July 1. Idaho’s law was placed on hold by a judge.

Some Republican-led states also require schools to notify parents if their student identifies as transgender and some have banned schools from forcing staff to use pronouns preferred by transgender students.

The federal rule revision appears to allow parental notification, stating that “nothing in these final regulations prevents a recipient from disclosing information about a minor child to their parent who has the legal right to receive disclosures on behalf of their child.”

Florida, Kentucky, Montana, and North Dakota have laws protecting teachers and students from disciplinary action if they don’t use the pronouns preferred by those identifying as transgender.

‘Nowhere Near Legal’

Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Indiana, sued the Biden administration April 30, making them the latest to fight back.

“The U.S. Department of Education has no authority to let boys into girls’ locker rooms,” Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti, a Republican, said in a statement on the lawsuit.

“In the decades since its adoption, Title IX has been universally understood to protect the privacy and safety of women in private spaces like locker rooms and bathrooms,” he said.

Demonstrators supporting female-only althetics and sports in schools gather at the Texas State Capitol in Austin on Sept. 20, 2021. (Tamir Kalifa/Getty Images)

A day earlier, on April 29, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, and Idaho, along with the Defense of Freedom Institute for Policy Studies, sued the administration, accusing it of overreach.

The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana, accused Biden’s Education Department of illegally forcing an ideology onto America’s youth.

It called the rule change “a naked attempt to strongarm our schools into molding our children into the current federal government’s preferred image of how a child should think, act, and speak.”

“The final rule is an affront to the dignity of families and school administrators everywhere, and it is nowhere near legal,” the lawsuit stated.

Texas, which passed laws against transgender athletes participating in female sports, filed a joint lawsuit with America First Legal Foundation.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 14:00

Biden Ready To Use SPR Again If Oil Prices Rise

Zero Hedge -

Biden Ready To Use SPR Again If Oil Prices Rise

Several weeks after we reported that - very unsurprisingly - the Biden admin had halted its laughable attempts to refill the SPR as oil prices soared (having missed its entire window to do so when WTI was trading in the low $70s), we speculated that it may be only a matter of time before the senile president decides to start draining the strategic reserve all over again to keep gas prices low ahead of the election.

Now we get confirmation of just that: as OilPrice reports, President Biden will use crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve should the need arise, energy adviser Amos Hochstein has said, noting there was enough oil in the reserve, which of course is true but what it misses is that under Biden the SPR has already been drained by half.

"We have been replenishing into the SPR for the last several months. I think we have sufficient supply in the SPR to address any kind of concern in the economy if we need it," Hochstein said, speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference, as quoted by Reuters. And by "replenishing" he meant refilling 15 million barrels after draining almost 300 million for purely political purposes.

The U.S. saw the stockpiles of crude oil in the SPR fall from 638 million barrels at President Joe Biden’s inauguration to just 347 million barrels by the summer of 2023 as the administration tried to bring down gasoline prices for consumers by releasing over 180 million barrels from the SPR.

Recently, talk has restarted about the possibility of using the SPR to bring down retail fuel prices in case the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalates, leading to higher oil prices and, consequently, higher gasoline and diesel prices for U.S. drivers.

Since rising fuel prices are the last thing a president running for a second term wants to experience in an election year, SPR releases were seen by many as the most likely course of action. This, in turn, prompted questions about whether there is enough oil in the SPR since the federal government’s replenishment efforts have been quite sporadic due to prices. Several offers for the purchase of 3 million barrels have been canceled already because prices got too high for the Department of Energy, which had set itself a ceiling of $79 per barrel.

As of January, the DoE had bought back some 32.3 million barrels out of the more than 180 million barrels that were released in 2022. In addition to those volumes, the Department of Energy is getting back some 4 million barrels that were lent to energy companies. The volume in the SPR as of January was about 364 million barrels.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 13:40

Stellar 3Y Auction Stops-Through Thanks To Jump In Foreign Demand

Zero Hedge -

Stellar 3Y Auction Stops-Through Thanks To Jump In Foreign Demand

The first refunding auction of the quarter just concluded when the Treasury sold $58BN in 3 Year paper, unchanged from last month's size and matching the previous record high hit during the covid crisis.

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.605%, up from 4.548% in April, but while that auction tailed by 2bps, today's auction stopped through the When Issued 4.608% by 0.3bps, the 4th stopping through auction in the past five as shown below.

The Bid to Cover rose to 2.632 from 2.497 last month, this was the highest since January and well above the five-auction average of 2.573.

The internals were also solid: indirects jumped to 65.5%, up from 60.3% and above the recent average of 63.0%; and with Directs awarded 19.6%, the second highest since December (only April's 20.4% was higher), Dealers were left with 14.9% of the final auction, below the recent average of 18.3%.

Overall, this was a very solid auction, with impressive demand and internals. Curiously, in response to the auction the 10Y yield - which was trading near session lows of 4.43% ahead of the auction - moved higher by about 1 basis point.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 13:25

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