Individual Economists

Boxing Promoter Don King Endorses Trump For President

Zero Hedge -

Boxing Promoter Don King Endorses Trump For President

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Boxing promoter Don King attends the Presidential Debate at Hofstra University, in Hempstead, N.Y., on Sept. 26, 2016. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Iconic boxing promoter Don King has endorsed former President Donald Trump for president in the 2024 election.

The 92-year-old made the remarks on May 8 on the sidelines of an event after being asked if he has a message for President Trump, who’s facing a bevy of court cases that threaten to derail his presidential campaign.

Get reelected,” Mr. King said. “And we must reelect him to save ourselves. You know, a vote for Trump is a vote for yourself. Because we’ve got to fight the system of lies and the creation of wrong being right and right being wrong. That’s got to be eliminated.”

He called President Trump “the only man who’s got the intestinal fortitude to be able to stand up and fight the system like it should be fought,”

Mr. King said the former president “underestimated the power of this strong system of corruption and hypocrisy.”

While Mr. King didn’t elaborate on the “system of corruption and hypocrisy” that he had in mind, it could be a reference to the numerous legal battles that the former president is fighting that he and his supporters argue are thinly veiled attempts to use lawfare to derail his comeback bid.

“I want to say to him, let’s [save] America, let’s save ourselves, and then we can help others to be safe,” Mr. King added.

President Trump shared the video on his social media platform, Truth Social, thanking Mr. King for his endorsement and message of encouragement.

‘He’d Be Muhammad Ali’

Mr. King’s sympathies for the former president are well-established, with the boxing promoter being one of few celebrities who endorsed then-candidate Trump in the 2016 election.

Introducing then-candidate Trump at a church event in Ohio in 2016, Mr. King called him “courageous and brave” and said he believed the future president would fix the “corrupt” and “rigged” system and bring the country “back to inclusiveness.”

In mid-2017, after President Trump had spent several months in office, Mr. King told Politico Magazine in an exclusive interview that he believed he was doing an “excellent job” while lamenting the fact that his presidency was being overshadowed by the so-called “Russian collusion” scandal, which later turned out to be a hoax.

At the time, Mr. King told Politico that he believed President Trump was constantly in the crosshairs of the Washington establishment, saying that they would try to “keep him down” at almost any cost—even saying that he warned the president to be on guard for assassination attempts.

“If Trump were a boxer, who would he be?” the interviewer asked the legendary boxing promoter.

“He'd be Muhammad Ali...because he’s going to win,” Mr. King replied. “He’s going to run his mouth, he’s going to talk a lot and he’s going to win.”

The then-U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, along with boxing promoter Don King, answers questions from the media after a day of meetings at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Dec. 28, 2016. (Don Emmert/AFP via Getty Images)

The former president has won the support of a number of prominent figures in the fight world, including Mr. King’s best-known protege, former heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson, and Dana White, CEO and president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC).

Mr. Tyson endorsed then-candidate Trump for the 2016 election, while Mr. White said recently he supports his 2024 comeback bid.

“He should be president of the United States,” Mr. Tyson told HuffPost in an exclusive interview in 2015. The former champion said he thought a business-minded leader like Trump was exactly what the country needed.

“Let’s try something new. Let’s run America like a business, where no colors matter. Whoever can do the job, gets the job,” Mr. Tyson said.

‘Unfazed’

Mr. White gave his endorsement in an appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast in April, calling President Trump “the most resilient human being I’ve ever met.”

“They’re trying to attack him. They’re trying to ruin him—unfazed,” the UFC president said. “He will walk through fire.”

Former President Donald Trump (R), alongside UFC CEO Dana White (L), attends the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) 299 mixed martial arts event at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., on March 9, 2024. (Giorgio Viera/AFP)

Asked if he thinks President Trump will win reelection, Mr. White said he’s unsure given the “dirty” and “ugly” nature of politics.

“Obviously, I’m rooting for him and I’m behind him and I hope he does.”

It comes as the former president has complained about being stuck in a New York courtroom for his so-called “hush money” trial while he could be out campaigning for reelection.

In a case officially known as The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump, the former president is accused of hiding so-called hush money payments to an adult performer by falsifying business records. If found guilty, he could face a prison sentence.

President Trump has repeatedly denied wrongdoing, and before he entered the courtroom on April 15, the first day of the trial, he reiterated his position that the case is politically motivated.

“This is really an attack on a political opponent. That’s all it is,” he told reporters outside the courtroom before going inside.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 08:40

Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased 0.8% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 4 May
U.S. hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 4 May. ...

28 April through 4 May 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

Occupancy: 64.4% (-0.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.97 (+1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$103.09 (+0.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.

US Futures, Global Markets Storm Higher, Eye All-Time Highs

Zero Hedge -

US Futures, Global Markets Storm Higher, Eye All-Time Highs

US equity futures pointed to even more gains on the last day of trading, leaving the S&P 500 set for a third weekly rise — the longest run since February. The rally was given fresh legs yesterday by more earnings optimism coupled with disappointing economic data - this time the highest initial jobless claims since last August - that supported the case for Fed rate cuts, but the real test will come with a key US inflation print next week (where we laid out a case for why as OER catches down to real-time rates, CPI may print a big miss).  As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures higher by 0.3% after the index closed less than 1% away from its all-time high, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.4%. European stocks are up 0.9% set for a new record high with Asian stocks also gaining. Treasuries and the dollar were flat; earlier on Friday, the yuan weakened on the news that Biden’s administration is poised to unveil a sweeping decision on new China tariffs as soon as next week, with the measures expected to focus on industries such as electric vehicles, batteries and solar cells, with existing levies largely being maintained. The macro slate includes May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and April monthly budget statement.

In premarket trading, 3M Co. rose 1.2% in premarket trading after HSBC raised its recommendation to buy from hold. The bank notes the company’s earnings showed nascent signs of an “inflection in growth and margin gains from restructuring” at the manufacturing giant. Akamai fell 10% after its forecast for adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter missed the average analyst estimate. Analysts note weakness in the infrastructure software company’s content-delivery network business. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Bumble rises 3.1% as BofA upgrades the online dating company to buy from neutral on both valuation and upside to growth.
  • CRH gains 4.3% after what the analysts see as a positive start with performance driven by pricing, early-season activity and favorable weather in important markets, despite lower volumes in Europe.
  • Dutch Bros gains 2.6% after Cowen raises the drive-thru coffee chain’s rating to buy from hold, expecting that 2024 will be a “beat & raise year.”
  • Ginkgo Bioworks slumps 11% after the genetic engineering company cut its revenue forecast for the full year, following first-quarter sales that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. The miss and outlook cut triggered a downgrade at William Blair.
  • JFrog drops 12% as the software development company’s earnings report failed to impress investors after this year’s rally. The results could prompt questions around the timing and potential contribution from AI-led workloads, which didn’t appear to have much effect this quarter, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sunil Rajgopal wrote in a research note.
  • MacroGenics sinks 68% after the drug developer reported five deaths in a mid-stage trial of its investigative therapy for prostate cancer. Analysts downgraded their ratings on the stock as confidence in the firm’s program takes a hit following the safety data.
  • Natera rises as much as 20% after boosting its revenue guidance for the full year.
  • Novavax surges as much as 217% after the vaccine maker signed a licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot.
  • Progyny drops 25% after it reported first quarter revenue below average analyst estimates and cut revenue guidance for the full year. KeyBanc analysts downgraded the fertility benefits management company to sector weight from overweight, writing that they “are becoming weary” as more questions arise on visibility into revenue and customer trends.
  • SoundHound AI rises 15% after the voice AI software company reported first-quarter revenue that beat expectations and gave a revenue outlook range for the full year that met the average analyst estimate.
  • Sweetgreen climbs 19% after the salad restaurant chain’s revenue topped estimates and it boosted its same-store sales forecast for the full year.
  • Unity Software falls as much as 4.2% after the video-game software development company reported an 8% drop in first-quarter revenue. Analysts say the shares will remain rangebound until the company’s new CEO crystallizes his own strategy.
  • Yelp drops 4.1% after it adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year and missed the average analyst estimate. Macro headwinds for restaurants and growing competition from delivery platforms could also pressure the online review company’s revenue, according to Jefferies analysts.

The rebound in stocks found fresh momentum from very poor US unemployment claims Thursday, which backed the case for rate cuts before next week’s key US inflation print. Meanwhile, so-called value and cyclical sectors are helping to broaden out a rally that had been fueled by tech giants. Traders will be watching for hints on the timing of policy easing from Fed officials including Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari before next week’s CPI data.

"A rally of the laggards is our key allocation call, and so far, we’re witnessing signs that it’s happening,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management. “For this to persist, the market needs to maintain a delicate balance — a sweet spot where the job market remains mildly soft and earnings growth continues.”

European stocks are set for their best week since the end of January on a slew of better-than-expected earnings reports and growing confidence that interest rate cuts are still possible this year. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.9% to a record high with mining, utility and construction shares leading gains. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Enel shares rise as much as 3.5% after 1Q earnings came in materially above expectations, de-risking the utility firm’s full-year outlook and suggesting it could deliver the top end of its guidance.
  • Munich Re shares rise as much as 2.6% after BofA lifts its rating on the company to buy from neutral in a note citing “underappreciated earnings strength.”
  • Legrand shares advance as much as 3.3% to highest since January 2022 after Citi double-upgrades to buy from sell.
  • EDP shares climb as much as 4.6% after the company said investment will decelerate in 2024-2026 as it focuses on “top projects.”
  • IAG shares climb as much as 1.8% after the airline group posted a operating profit beat for the first quarter, driven by ongoing recovery in leisure traffic and the timing of Easter.
  • Fluidra shares gains as much as 5.5% after JPMorgan upgrades the Spanish pool maker to overweight from neutral.
  • Iveco shares rise as much as 7.1% following its first-quarter results, which Morgan Stanley says represent a positive start to the year for the Italian commercial vehicle maker.
  • CCC shares jump as much as 19% after the Polish fashion retailer reported strong 1Q preliminary earnings with a 39% beat on Ebitda.
  • Dino Polska shares drop as much as 4.4% after it reported further erosion of Ebidta margin, reflecting an ongoing price war in the Polish food retail market.
  • Rightmove shares fall as much as 5.3%. The online property portal reiterated its revenue and margin guidance after tweaking other targets.
  • Getinge shares drop as much as 9.7%, the most in more than three months, following a US FDA letter to health care providers expressing safety and quality concerns about some of the Swedish medical technology firm’s cardiovascular devices.
  • BFF Bank shares plunge as much as 32%, the most on record, after Bank of Italy ordered a temporary halt on profit distribution and expansion abroad as a result of a probe into the Italian specialty finance company.

Asian stocks tracked the gains in the US where a rise in initial jobless claims spurred a dovish reaction. Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp traded mixed with Hong Kong stocks surging on reports China is considering a proposal to exempt individual investors from paying dividend taxes on Hong Kong stocks bought via the Stock Connect, while the mainland faded its initial gains with the US reportedly set to impose tariffs on China EVs and key sectors after a review which could be announced as soon as next week. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but then slipped from intraday highs with participants reflecting on Household Spending data, US-China and tensions and amid a busy day of earnings releases for Japan. ASX 200 was led by energy, telecoms and financials but with gains capped amid mixed consumer stocks.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied and Treasury yields were little changed across the curve as traders awaited commentary from several Fed officals; Sterling rose after a much stronger than expected UK GDP print, which saw the country emerge from recession, provided a modicum of support to the pound which is up 0.1% against the dollar. The Norwegian krone tops the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.3% after CPI topped estimates.

  • USD/NOK dropped 0.3% to 10.8155 as the Norwegian krone led G-10 gains against the dollar; Norway’s underlying inflation rate fell less than analysts expected last month
  • AUD/USD fell as much as 0.3% to 0.6599, while NZD/USD dipped as much as 0.3% to 0.6014, on a report that the US is poised to unveil a sweeping decision on China tariffs
  • GBP/USD inched up as much as 0.1% to 1.2541, after data showed the UK economy bounced back from a shallow recession

In rates, treasuries are little changed with futures holding Thursday’s advance, underpinned by gains for gilts following UK data raft including GDP, manufacturing and industrial production. US yields are within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels, 10-year around 4.46%, with gilts and bunds outperforming by 2bp and 3bp in the sector; curve spreads likewise little changed, 2s10s holding Thursday’s flattening move. Gilts have rallied despite stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures, with UK 10-year yields falling 3bps to 4.11%.

In commodities, Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.6% to trade near $79.80 a barrel and near the week’s high. Spot gold climbs 1.1% to around $2,372/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, the US economic data slate includes May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am New York time) and April monthly budget statement (2pm). Fed officials’ scheduled speeches include Bowman (9am), Logan (10am), Kashkari (10am, 2:15pm), Goolsbee (12:45pm, 2:15pm) and Barr (1:30pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,254.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 520.47
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 177.68
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 554.50
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 38,229.11
  • Topix up 0.5% to 2,728.21
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 18,963.68
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,154.55
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 72,580.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,748.96
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,727.63
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.46%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0783
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $84.02/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.9% to $2,367.89
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 105.23

Top Overnight News

  • Stocks rallied on earnings optimism and US data that supported the case for interest-rate cuts. A raft of Federal Reserve speakers are slated for Friday as traders await a key US inflation print next week.
  • President Joe Biden’s administration is poised to unveil a sweeping decision on China tariffs as soon as next week, one that’s expected to target key strategic sectors while rejecting the across-the-board hikes sought by Donald Trump, people familiar with the matter said.
  • Britain bounced back strongly from a shallow recession, providing some relief for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who has so far struggled to deliver on his promise to grow the economy.
  • Money managers are piling into the European Union’s bonds in anticipation of a major shift in their status that would open up the bloc’s debt to a bigger pool of investors.
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. is on track to include India in its emerging market debt index from June with most of its clients ready to trade despite some “teething issues,” according to the firm’s global head of index research.
  • China CPCA said China sold 1.55mln passenger cars in April, -5.8% Y/Y; Tesla (TSLA) exported 30,746 China-made vehicles in Apr
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said inflation has come down substantially but is not where it needs to be, according to a Marketplace interview.
  • White House is poised to nominate Kristin Johnson to fill a top role at the Treasury overseeing banks, according to Bloomberg citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly tracked the gains in the US where a rise in initial jobless claims spurred a dovish reaction. ASX 200 was led by energy, telecoms and financials but with gains capped amid mixed consumer stocks. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but then slipped from intraday highs with participants reflecting on Household Spending data, US-China and tensions and amid a busy day of earnings releases for Japan. Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp traded mixed with Hong Kong stocks surging on reports China is considering a proposal to exempt individual investors from paying dividend taxes on Hong Kong stocks bought via the Stock Connect, while the mainland faded its initial gains with the US reportedly set to impose tariffs on China EVs and key sectors after a review which could be announced as soon as next week.

Top Asian News

  • US is set to impose tariffs on China EVs and key sectors after its Section 301 review as early as next week, according to Bloomberg.
  • China is unlikely to lift home purchase restrictions completely, according to CCTV.
  • Honda (7267 JT) FY (JPY): Pretax profit 1.64tln, +86.7% Y/Y, Op. Profit 1.38tln, +77% Y/Y; says it will buy back of up to 3.7% of own shares worth JPY 300bln.
  • Earthquake felt in Taiwan's capital Taipei; magnitude 5.7, via EMSC.
  • China Auto Industry CPCA says market sluggishness was worse than expected while some automakers still derived to produce and resulted in rising inventories at dealerships

European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.7%) are entirely in the green, taking the lead from a mostly positive APAC session. Both the FTSE 100 and the DAX 40 made fresh ATHs today. European sectors hold a strong positive tilt, with the exception of Autos and Media, with the former continuing the losses seen in the prior session. Utilities takes the top spot, lifted by post-earning strength in Enel (+3.6%) and EDP (+2.5%). US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3%, RTY +0.4%) are entirely in the green, albeit modestly so, attempting to build on yesterday’s advances.

Top European News

  • UBS expects the BoE to start cutting interest rates in June (prev. expected Aug)
  • Over one in two firms with Germany's residential construction sector reported a lack of orders in April, via Ifo; 55.2% (prev. 56.2%) reported this

FX

  • Steady trade for the USD after yesterday's data-induced losses dragged DXY to a low of 105.20. Uni. of Michigan is the main data highlight but is very much in the shadow of next week's CPI print. If DXY trundles lower once again, support ahead of the 105 mark comes via the 7th May low at 105.03.
  • EUR is steady vs. the USD with EZ drivers once again lacking in today's session. EUR/USD made an incremental high at 1.0786 but catalysts today for a push beyond 1.08 are not obvious. ECB Minutes due at 12:30 BST / 07:30 EDT.
  • GBP is the marginal best performer across the majors following hotter-than-expected UK GDP metrics which sent GBP/USD higher from 1.2519 to a 1.2540 peak before running into resistance at the 200DMA.
  • USD/JPY's ascent has once again continued after a brief blip yesterday in a week that has seen jawboning from officials fail to stop the rot. The next inflection point will likely be US CPI data.
  • Antipodeans are both marginally softer vs. the USD after benefitting yesterday from the dollar's post-data selling pressure. AUD/USD remains on a 0.66 handle in quiet newsflow with the monthly high at 0.6647.
  • NOK: A slightly hotter than expected CPI which has sparked some modest NOK strength, sending EUR/NOK lower from 11.6940 to 1.6820.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1011 vs exp. 7.2102 (prev. 7.1028).
  • CNB Minutes (May): Easing process could be paused/terminated at any point at still restrictive levels. Holub & Frait mentioned the possibility of 75bp of easing, ultimately went for 50bp

Fixed Income

  • USTs are flat with specifics light thus far though the docket ahead is packed with multiple Fed speakers. USTs are holding at 109-03+ matching yesterday's auction-driven high but still a handful of ticks shy of the WTD peak at 109-09.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 15 ticks despite hawkish direction from the strong UK GDP numbers earlier in the morning. Upside which has continued and extended to a 98.29 fresh WTD high as markets digest the BoE beginning to thread-the-needle to a first cut in the near term.
  • Bunds are bid but to a slightly lesser degree than Gilts with specifics light thus far. Upside which has paused at a 131.40 peak shy of 131.63-86 from earlier in the week.
  • Italy sells EUR 9.25bln vs exp. EUR 7.5-9.25bln 2.95% 2027, 1.10% 2027, 3.45% 2031, 5.00% 2040, 2.15% 2072 BTP.
  • Orders for Italy's BTP Valore reach EUR 11bln (circa. EUR 10bln on Thursday). Books close at 12:00BST

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks in the green but only modestly so as markets await an update to the Israel-Hamas situation after hostage negotiations ended and Israel pledged to continued with its operation in Rafah. Brent July off best levels and currently resides around USD 84.20/bbl.
  • Precious metals are supported and seemingly benefitting from the modestly bullish tone for fixed income thus far. XAU up to a USD 2370/oz peak thus far, eclipsing the 21-DMA of USD 2337/oz with ease and bringing USD 2400/oz and then USD 2431/oz into view.
  • Base metals are firmer, lifted by the broader risk tone and somewhat softer Dollar; though Aluminium is the standout laggard after a sizeable LME stock update of +424k (prev. -2.75k).
  • Saudi's crude oil supply to China to fall by 5.8mln/bbl in June vs May, via Reuters citing sources.
  • LME Stocks: Aluminium +424k (prev. -2.75k)

Geopolitics

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said they have destroyed 20 of Hamas's 24 battalions so far and hopes he and US President Biden can overcome disagreements, while he added that they have to defeat Hamas in Rafah.
  • Israel's army reportedly carried out bombing operations on buildings east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Al Jazeera.
  • US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken confirmed to his Egyptian counterpart US President Biden's "clear" position not to support the Rafah operation, according to Al Arabiya.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken is expected to submit Israel conduct report to Congress today and is expected to criticise Israel but say it isn't breaking weapons terms, according to Axios.
  • Group of 20 US Senators introduced a bill that would restrict funding to the UN or any organisation that gives the Palestinian Authority higher than observer status, according to Asharq News.

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 76.2, prior 77.2
  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 79.0, prior 79.0
  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 75.0, prior 76.0
  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.2%, prior 3.2%
  • 10:00: May U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
  • 14:00: April Monthly Budget Statement, est. $250b, prior $176.2b

Central Bank Speakers

  • 09:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Financial Stability Risks
  • 10:00: Fed’s Logan Participates in Moderated Q&A
  • 10:00: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Q&A
  • 12:45: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A
  • 13:30: Fed’s Barr Gives Commencement Speech
  • 14:15: Fed’s Kashkari, Goolsbee on CNBC

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets posted further gains yesterday, thanks to growing confidence that central banks would still cut rates this year. In part, that was because of the weekly initial jobless claims in the US, which hit an 8-month high and added to fears that the labour market was cooling further. But alongside that, the Bank of England announced their latest policy decision, where Governor Bailey said it was “ likely that we will need to cut bank rate over the coming quarters ”. So this all cemented the theme that global monetary policy was heading towards a less restrictive stance, not least after the Riksbank’s rate cut earlier in the week. The next hurdle will be the US inflation numbers for April next week, but so far this month at least, investors have moved to expect a more dovish stance of monetary policy than they thought would happen at the end of April.

This trend was very helpful for equities, with several European indices up to new records yesterday, including the STOXX 600 (+0.19%), the FTSE 100 (+0.33%) and the DAX (+1.02%). Indeed, it marked a 5th consecutive advance for all three indices, and it leaves the DAX on track for its best weekly performance since November, having risen by +3.81% since the start of this week. Meanwhile in the US, the S&P 500 (+0.51%) was up to a 5-week high, and the index remains on track for a third consecutive weekly gain for the first time since February. On top of that, it’s also been the strongest performance for the S&P 500 over 6 sessions so far this year, having advanced by +3.90% since its recent low on May 1. The gains for the S&P 500 were broad-based with 10 of 11 industry groups higher on the day, and came even as the Magnificent 7 (-0.07%) was weighed down by losses for Nvidia (-1.84%) and Tesla (-1.57%).

That jobless claims data was the initial catalyst for the advance yesterday, and up until that point, S&P 500 futures had actually been in negative territory. The release showed that initial jobless claims were up to 231k (vs. 212k expected) in the week ending May 4, which was their highest level since late-August, and above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. But even though the data was weaker than expected, it meant investors grew more confident that the Fed would still cut rates this year, as it added to recent prints suggesting the labour market could be cooling. For instance, last week’s data showed job openings were down to a 3-year low in March, whilst the broader U6 measure of unemployment (which includes the underemployed and those marginally attached to the labour force) rose to its highest in over two years in April, at 7.4%.

But even with the uptick in jobless claims, this isn’t necessarily a leading indicator of a downturn. For instance, there was a previous spike last year, which pushed the 4-week average above 250k by late-June. But after that, the numbers came down again shortly afterwards, and there wasn’t a notable rise in the unemployment rate. And for the time being at least, the smoother 4-week average is still only at 215k, so it’s important to bear in mind that lots of other indicators are still looking more positive, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator is suggesting that Q2 growth will come in at an annualised +4.2% rate.

This belief in future rate cuts was supported by the Bank of England’s latest decision as well. The main headline was that they kept rates unchanged at 5.25%, in line with expectations. But unlike the March meeting, when the vote was 8-1 to keep rates on hold, there was now a 7-2 split after Deputy Governor Ramsden also voted for a cut. Moreover, there was an additional line in the statement, which said that the committee would “consider forthcoming data releases and how these inform the assessment that the risks from inflation persistence are receding.” Then in the press conference, Governor Bailey said that a cut at the next meeting in June was “neither ruled out nor a fait accompli ”, and he suggested that the reductions in bank rate could be “possibly more so than currently priced into market rates”. There are two more CPI prints coming out ahead of the BoE’s next decision, so those will be in focus ahead of that, and this morning we’ve also got the Q1 GDP release shortly after we go to press.

Overall, the decision and these comments led investors to price in a growing probability of a rate cut by the next BoE meeting in June, with overnight index swaps raising the chance from 55% the previous day to 60% by the close. Front-end gilts also rallied on the prospect of faster rate cuts, with the 2yr yield coming down by -5.7bps. 10yr gilts did lose a bit of ground, with yields up +0.2bps, but that was actually an outperformance relative to the rest of Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+4.3bps) and BTPs (+3.7bps) all saw larger moves higher.

Meanwhile in the US, Treasuries outperformed after the jobless claims data led futures to dial up the likelihood of rate cuts this year. For instance, 46bps of cuts were priced in by the December meeting at the close, up +1.9bps relative to the previous day. In turn, the 2yr yield was down -2.1bps to 4.82%. And 10yr yields were down -4.1bps to 4.45%, with long-dated Treasuries supported by a solid 30yr auction that saw the highest direct bidder share since July.

Overnight in Asia, this strength for risk assets has broadly continued, with the Hang Seng (+1.74%) rising to its highest level in almost nine months, whilst the Nikkei (+0.24%) and the KOSPI (+0.60%) have also advanced. The exception to this has been in mainland China, where the CSI 300 (-0.28%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.22%) have both lost ground, which comes as a Bloomberg report said that the US would announce new tariffs on China. The report cited people who said an announcement was scheduled for Tuesday, and there would be a focus on strategic sectors including electric vehicles. Elsewhere, US equity futures are also positive this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.09%.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK GDP reading for Q1, Italian industrial production for March, Canadian employment for April, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bowman, Logan, Kashkari, Goolsbee and Barr, the ECB’s Cipollone and Elderson, and the BoE’s Pill and Dhingra. We’ll also get the account from the ECB’s April meeting.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 08:15

United Airlines Boeing 737 Makes Emergency Return To Japanese Airport After Wing Flap "Irregularity" 

Zero Hedge -

United Airlines Boeing 737 Makes Emergency Return To Japanese Airport After Wing Flap "Irregularity" 

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Good morning, readers. There has been another Boeing incident overnight. This news is particularly alarming for anyone flying domestically or internationally on a Boeing jet, especially given the two Boeing mishaps earlier this week. 

Aviation news website Simply Flying reported a United Airlines Boeing 737-800 that departed from Fukuoka Airport in Japan earlier today experienced an "irregularity" with a wing flap(s). 

UA166, which was taking off from Fukuoka Airport to Guam Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport, climbed to an altitude of 10,000 feet after takeoff, then leveled off and held a holding pattern. Around this time, pilots detected a wing flap(s) issue. 

"Eventually, after holding for more than 30 minutes, the aircraft began its approach to FUK by descending and lining up on the airport's sole runway, runway 16/34, with the United Airlines aircraft landing at the aircraft on the former configuration," Simply Flying said. 

Simply Flying, local media outlets nor officials provided additional information about the flap 'issue.' 

What's important to understand here is that flaps are crucial for producing additional lift in takeoff and landing procedures. For the pilots out there, the flaps are critical for more lift on a 'normal' approach that provides reduced speed and controlled flight ahead of the round-out phase of landing. In other words, with full flaps deployed, a steep approach on landing means reduced speed and shorter runway distance is needed. A straight-line approach with no flaps deployed means higher speed and more runway distance required.

Given the brief aviation lesson about wing flaps, the 737-800 usually requires 6,500–7,000 feet for landing. Many calculations go into that, including weight and wind. Data shows the plane used the entire 9,186-foot runway, a possible indication of wing flap issues. 

The good news is that the plane landed without an issue, and all 49 souls onboard were safe. 

Another day, another issue with Boeing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 07:45

As The Dollar Falters, Gold Becomes Insurance, Not Speculation

Zero Hedge -

As The Dollar Falters, Gold Becomes Insurance, Not Speculation

Authored by Douglas French via The Mises Institute,

Economics trumps sentimentality, and gold’s elevated price has some people raiding the family jewelry box to pay bills. 

“Young people are not wearing grandma’s jewels. Most of the young people, they want an Apple watch. They don’t want a pocket watch,” Tobina Kahn, president of House of Kahn Estate Jewelers told Bloomberg.

“Sentimental is now out the door.”

When times are tough, treasures change hands, the late Burt Blumert, once a gold dealer and Mises Institute Board Chairman, used to say.

“Prices are high, and I need cash,” Branden Sabino, a thirty-year-old information technology worker said, adding that with the cost of rent, groceries, and car insurance rising, he doesn’t have any savings. He sold a gold necklace and a gold ring to King Gold and Pawn on Avenue 5 in Brooklyn.

“People are using gold as an ATM they never had,” said store owner Gene Furman.

At King Gold, fifty-five-year-old Mirsa Vijil pawned a bracelet to pay her gas bill.

“Gold is high,” she said, adding she’d never pawned her jewelry before but will do it again if she needs to.

Adrian Ash, director of research at online gold investment service BullionVault says there is twice as much selling as a year ago on BullionVault’s platform. “People are very happy to take this price.”

“It’s very busy and we are getting more calls than ever before about clients wanting to bring in their jewels,” Kahn said.

“I’m telling the clients to bring them in now, as we are at unprecedented levels.”

So while there is plenty of liquidating to pay the bills, demand at the United States Mint is tepid, with sales in March the worst since 2019 for its American Eagle gold coin.

It turns out more than a few of those well-publicized Costco gold bar buyers are having trouble selling them. The bars, not being American Eagles or other similar gold coins, are not as liquid, given that the seller, Costco, will not buy them back. The Wall Street Journal reports, thirty-three-year old Adam Xi called five different gold dealers to get a price he would accept for the gold bar he bought at Costco in October.

He was offered $200 less by one dealer than the $2,000 he had paid. But he found a Philadelphia coin dealer near his home willing to pay $1,960, or twenty dollars under market price.

Mr. Xi has learned, or should have learned, that buying gold to turn a quick profit is a fantasy. His plan was to rack up credit-card points buying the gold and then quickly resell it for a profit.

Buyers can expect their gold to immediately lose around 5 percent of its value, according to Tom Graff, chief investment officer at the wealth advising company Facet. One pays a premium to buy and pays fees to sell.

“You need a holding period that’s long enough to overwhelm that cost,” said Graff.

Luke Greib told the Wall Street Journal that he sold a one-ounce Credit Suisse bar on a Reddit page dedicated to trading precious metals to avoid taxes and fees.

Buying physical gold is purchasing insurance against monetary mischief by the Federal Reserve, not to earn a profit via a quick flip.

Perhaps it’s hard to imagine currency destruction so devastating that your gold would serve as not only a store of value but a medium of exchange. Peter C. Earle explains in a piece for the American Institute for Economic Research, “During the peak of its 2008 hyperinflation, [Zimbabwe] experienced a catastrophic economic downturn, characterized by the issuance of billion—and trillion-dollar banknotes that were, despite their nominal enormity, virtually worthless.”

Dr. Earle writes that twenty-eight years of inflation “topped a total 231 million percent” and “the ZWD was demonetized in 2009.” The government is making its sixth attempt at a new currency, Zimbabwe gold (ZiG). “ZiG is there to stay forever,” said Vice President Constantino Chiwenga. “This bold step symbolizes government’s unwavering commitment to the de-dollarization program premised on fiscal discipline, monetary prudence and economic revitalization.”

Reportedly, ZiG “is backed by a basket of precious metals including about 2.5 tons of gold along with $100 million of foreign currency reserves held by the central bank.” As always, the Zimbabwe authorities are already blaming speculators for price increases. “Speculators should cease,” Chiwenga said. “Behave, or you get shut down or we lock you up.”

Dr. Earle has his doubts about whether the Zimbabwean authorities will maintain the ZiG backing with the required rigor. While he hopes for success, “Without fundamental changes guaranteeing private property protection, pro-market reforms, and safeguards against corruption, though, the ZiG is likely to retrace the unfortunate steps of its predecessors.”

The reason to buy and hold gold is just in case the Federal Reserve goes the way of Zimbabwe.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 07:20

Six Reasons To Own Bitcoin In Retirement

Zero Hedge -

Six Reasons To Own Bitcoin In Retirement

Via BitcoinMagazine.com,

For newcomers, especially those in and around retirement age, the idea of investing in or owning bitcoin can evoke reactions from skepticism to disbelief. If you look beyond the popular narratives, however, you might find there is more to the story than first impressions suggest.

Here are six reasons to consider owning at least some bitcoin during retirement.

1. BITCOIN HELPS BROADEN YOUR ASSET ALLOCATION BASE

Traditionally, investors use a strategy called asset allocation to distribute and shield funds from investment risk over time. A sound asset allocation strategy is the antidote to putting all of your eggs in one basket. There are several types of asset “classes” or categories over which to distribute risk. Customarily, advisors seek to establish a dynamic mix between debt instruments (i.e., bonds), equities (i.e., stocks), real estate, cash, and commodities.

The more categories you employ to distribute your assets and the less correlated those categories are, the better your chances of balancing your risk, at least theoretically. Recently, due to unintended consequences caused by the aggressive expansion of societal debt and the money supply, assets that were previously less correlated now tend to behave more in kind with one another. When one sector gets hammered today, several sectors often suffer together.

Regardless of these present-day conditions, asset allocation remains a well-conceived strategy for moderating risk. While still in its relative infancy, bitcoin represents an entirely new asset class. Because of this, owning at least some bitcoin, especially due to its distinct properties when compared to other “cryptocurrencies,” provides an opportunity to broaden your asset base and more effectively distribute your overall risk.

2. BITCOIN OFFERS A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION AND CURRENCY DEBASEMENT

As a retiree, protecting yourself from inflation is crucial to preserving your long-term purchasing power. In the asset allocation discussion above, we referenced the recent and aggressive money supply expansion. Everyone who has lived long enough to approach retirement age knows that a dollar no longer buys what it used to. When the government issues large amounts of new money, it debases the value of the dollars already in circulation. This generally pushes prices higher as newly created dollars begin to chase the existing limited supply of goods and services.

Our own Parker Lewis touched on this extensively in his Gradually, Then Suddenly series:

In summary, when trying to understand bitcoin as money, start with gold, the dollar, the Fed, quantitative easing and why bitcoin’s supply is fixed. Money is not simply a collective hallucination or a belief system; there is rhyme and reason. Bitcoin exists as a solution to the money problem that is global QE and if you believe the deterioration of local currencies in Turkey, Argentina or Venezuela could never happen to the U.S. dollar or to a developed economy, we are merely at a different point on the same curve.

In contrast to fiat currencies, no one can increase the supply and arbitrarily reduce bitcoin’s value. There are no centralized authorities that govern its monetary policy. Despite arguments to the contrary, bitcoin is similar to gold—but not exactly, because gold miners continue to inflate the supply of gold each year at a rate of 1-2%.

As bitcoin is slowly introduced to the circulating supply (i.e., mined), its inflation rate decreases and will eventually cease. This fact makes bitcoin uniquely scarce among global monetary assets. Ultimately, this scarcity, along with bitcoin’s other monetary properties, should safeguard its purchasing power. As such, owning bitcoin during retirement offers you a hedge against inflation.

3. BITCOIN OFFERS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ASYMMETRIC RETURNS

Bitcoin’s capacity to mitigate many of the challenges we discuss here rests on its ability to achieve asymmetric returns. Its supply is fixed (there will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoin), and demand for the asset is growing steadily. As this limited supply collides with increased store-of-value adoption from individuals, institutions, and governments, bitcoin has the potential to dwarf the returns of nearly every competing asset class.

It’s worth noting that people generally improve their returns with bitcoin when they hold it for the long term. In the modern era, retirements lasting decades or more are increasingly common. Over such time periods, even a limited allocation to bitcoin offers ample opportunity to benefit from its upside potential. You just need time to hold through the short-term volatility, which contrary to popular belief, is not evidence of it being a poor store of value.

Sequestering a portion of funds solely for appreciation during retirement runs somewhat counter to conventional wisdom. Modern retirement planning generally optimizes for the liquidation of portfolio funds to provide income. However, setting aside a small amount of bitcoin—kept steadfastly gated from funds earmarked for income—opens the door to benefit from the monetization of bitcoin’s limited supply.

4. BITCOIN OFFERS PROTECTION FROM THE RISK OF LONG-TERM BONDS

Conventionally, high-grade bonds—held directly or as fund shares—make up a significant part of most retirement portfolios due to their low risk levels and tendency toward capital preservation. However, things have changed.

Monetary expansion and increases in societal debt have forced bond yields—or the amount of interest paid (i.e., coupon)—to historically low levels. The yields on most bonds today fall well below the rate of inflation. This “negative real yield” means that owning a bond can cost you money. But the difficulty doesn’t end there.

Because retirees need funds from their portfolios to pay bills, they generally must sell assets at current market rates to derive income throughout retirement. In the case of bonds, at present, this can be very problematic. Consider the following equations.

  • How much money does it take for a bond paying a 2% rate to yield $20? Answer: $1,000. ($1,000 x 2% = $20)

  • How much money does it take for a bond paying a 4% rate to yield $20? Answer: $500. ($500 x 4% = $20)

These two equations reveal that to yield the same $20 return, the market value of the underlying bond changes based on the interest rate promised.

  • When interest rates go up, the market value of bonds goes down.

  • When interest rates go down, the market value of bonds goes up.

The market value of bonds has an inverse relationship to interest rates. Consider that interest rates today hover near historic lows. Over the next twenty to thirty years, what will happen to the market value of bonds held by retirees if interest rates increase substantially? The answer: the market value of their bonds will collapse.

This changes the entire risk paradigm for bonds in retirement portfolios and potentially makes them far less safe than typically imagined. Bitcoin exists in a separate asset class from bonds; it is a bearer instrument that is not exposed to the same money market risks. As such, owning bitcoin may help you offset at least some of the potential risk incurred from owning bonds in retirement.

5. BITCOIN OFFERS A POTENTIAL SOLUTION FOR LONG-TERM HEALTHCARE RISK

Another area of concern for retirees is the cost of healthcare. Here, I am not referring so much to ordinary medical bills but rather to the potential to incur long-term care expenses in later age. Insurance is available for long-term care, but it has some unique and increasingly difficult challenges to overcome.

Healthcare, in general, takes a double-hit when it comes to price inflation. Not only do healthcare costs rise due to monetary debasement, but healthcare faces additional headwinds from demand spurred by growth in the aging population.

Source: Administration for Community Living – 2020 Profile of Older Americans

States regulate insurance for long-term care. To keep policyowners safe, insurers face scrutiny over where and how they invest policy premiums. To preserve capital required for future claims, insurers generally rely on low-risk, intermediate and long-term bonds. However, as our discussion above on bonds reveals, low yields and the potential for rising rates complicate this practice. One immediate fallout is that premiums for long-term care insurance policies have risen substantially.

We noted earlier bitcoin’s usefulness as an inflation hedge and its potential for long-term price appreciation. As it relates to long-term healthcare, it may make sense to set aside some bitcoin explicitly dedicated as a hedge for this rapidly increasing expense.

6. BITCOIN OFFERS YOU INDIVIDUAL SOVEREIGNTY

The final reason we’ll consider for owning bitcoin in retirement is that it offers you increased individual sovereignty. Bitcoin provides you a level of ownership that is not achievable with other assets. It can easily be carried across borders with a hardware wallet or seed phrase, for example, or transferred peer-to-peer anywhere in the world at low cost.

If you hold bitcoin securely in a wallet you control, no central bank can steal the value of your bitcoin by printing it into oblivion. No CEO can dilute its value by issuing more of its “shares.” Nor can a bank arbitrarily block access to or confiscate your funds. Unlike centralized financial custodians, which can be ordered to freeze or withhold funds on the whims of government or other third-party authorities, bitcoin with keys properly held is resistant to these kinds of overreach.

Specifically for retirement purposes, you can also hold your own keys for bitcoin in an IRA. Products like the Unchained IRA are a robust tool for building and saving your wealth on a tax-advantaged basis. And holding your bitcoin keys in the form of a multisig collaborative custody vault allows you to eliminate all single points of failure while you do so.

SOUND FINANCIAL PRINCIPLES AND OWNING BITCOIN

Benefitting from bitcoin does not require committing to wild speculation or thoughtless abandonment of sound financial principles. In contrast, the more you look at bitcoin through sound financial principles and apply them to your thinking, the greater the opportunities it provides. One steadfast financial principle that coincides with bitcoin ownership is prudence.

Macro-economic investment strategist Lyn Alden often speaks of establishing a “non-zero position” in bitcoin (i.e., owning at least some). The risk of losing a few portfolio percentage points in a worst-case scenario is, in my estimation, worth the potential upside. But to be clear, each person’s situation is unique. You must do your own research and make the best decisions you can about what works in your particular scenario.

*  *  *

Visit Unchained.com for $100 off any Unchained financial services product with code “BTCMAG100

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 06:30

New York Flight Attendants Accused Of Smuggling Millions In Drug Money To Dominican Republic

Zero Hedge -

New York Flight Attendants Accused Of Smuggling Millions In Drug Money To Dominican Republic

Four flight attendants from the New York City area have been accused of participating in a multimillion-dollar drug money smuggling operation which saw $8 million make its way to the Dominican Republic, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.

The accused, identified as Jarol Fabio, 35, of New York City; Charlie Hernandez, 42, of West New York, New Jersey; Sarah Valerio Pujols, 42, of the Bronx; and Emmanuel Torres, 34, of Brooklyn, allegedly transported the funds over a span of several years, exploiting their positions as flight attendants to bypass the stringent security measures in place at JFK International Airport.

These flight attendants smuggled millions of dollars of drug money and law enforcement funds that they thought was drug money from the United States to the Dominican Republic over many years by abusing their privileges as airline employee[s]," stated U.S. Attorney Damien Williams. "Today’s charges should serve as a reminder to those who break the law by helping drug traffickers move their money that crime doesn’t pay."

According to prosecutors, the scheme involved using their status as "Known Crewmembers"—a designation that allows flight crew members to undergo less rigorous security screenings—to smuggle large sums of cash without detection. This privilege, intended to streamline operations for crew members, became their tool for illegal activities.

Delta Airlines, where two of the defendants were employed, has been cooperative with the authorities following the revelation that security protocols meant to protect the passengers were systematically abused.

According to court documents, the detailed operation was exposed with the help of two cooperating witnesses, themselves previously arrested on money laundering charges. These witnesses played a pivotal role in unveiling the transactions that tied some of the smuggled funds to fentanyl sales, adding a dire public health dimension to the criminal activities.

In one incident, prosecutors detailed how Hernandez and Pujols divided over $120,000 in drug money in December 2019, with each taking their share on subsequent trips to the Dominican Republic. Such episodes illustrate the methodical approach taken to avoid detection while exploiting their roles within the airline industry.

If convicted, the penalties are severe. Torres and Fabio face up to 15 years in prison, Hernandez could see 20 years, and Pujols, facing an additional smuggling charge, could be sentenced to up to 25 years. These stiff potential sentences reflect the serious nature of their alleged crimes, which compromised airport security systems and endangered public trust in the safety of air travel.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 05:45

New "Guide" Teaches UK MPs To Spot "Conspiracy Theories"

Zero Hedge -

New "Guide" Teaches UK MPs To Spot "Conspiracy Theories"

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

The British government has issued a new guidebook to all sitting MPs to help them spot “conspiracy theories”.

Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt  MP, who commissioned the guide, has warned that:

The proliferation of conspiracy theories across the UK is deeply disturbing. They are deliberate campaigns to spread disinformation and fear

[…]

If they go unchallenged we risk the public being conned and their wellbeing potentially damaged. These campaigns are also a threat to the health of our democracy.

It is essential that we give the public and their representatives the tools they need to combat this phenomenon.”

And claimed the aim of the new guide was to:

protect the public from the damaging effects of misinformation and safeguard the integrity of our democratic process,”

Which sounds just lovely, doesn’t it?

Oh, and just in case any of you are still caught up in the party politics illusion, the guide has full cross-party support, the Shadow Leader of the House called it “a must-read”.

The report was co-written by “experts” representing several non-governmental organisations, and fact-checkers including:

  • FullFact – funded by (among others) Google, Facebook and the Open Society Foundation.

  • The Institute for Strategic Dialogue  – funded by (among others) the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Google, Facebook, over a dozen national governments and the UN.

  • Global Network on Extremism and Technology  – The academic research arm of the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism, a thinktank “designed to prevent terrorists and violent extremists from exploiting digital platforms”…and which is funded by (among others) Facebook, Amazon, Youtube and Microsoft.

In short, it’s all a rather incestuous funding pool of the same handful of tech giants and billionaires paying “experts” to tell them what they want to hear.

But we probably shouldn’t judge until we’ve read the “guide” itself, which is tricky because it doesn’t seem to be publicly available (seriously I looked everywhere, if you’re aware of a copy online post it in the comments and we’ll add it the link here).

Fortunately, our old friends at the Guardian have given us a little taste, here’s three things they’re warning about.

The Great Reset, which the Graun describes as…

…a vague set of proposals from the World Economic Forum to encourage governments to move to adopt more equitable policies, the concept has been hijacked by conspiracy theorists claiming it is a bid by a small group to exert control.

…which is wonderful, because it’s essentially admitting it’s true and then pretending it’s not.

The Great Reset is, indeed, a WEF initiative. It was launched in June 2020 with the backing of world leaders and captains of industry, it aims to totally and completely rebuild the way our society works, including how we travel, what we eat and where we live.

You can read about it in Klaus Schwab’s own words here, or see their handy diagram:

How is that NOT “exerting control”?

How does one go about transforming the farming, travel, taxation and employment policies of every nation on Earth without “exerting control”?

Eating Insects is another “conspiracy theory”, apparently.

With the Guardian warning that:

 [conspiracy theories] have included claims – fuelled by attempts to reduce meat consumption – that the WEF wants to make people eat insects.

The only problem being that the WEF really does want people to eat insects:

Like, a lot:

You know what? The Guardian wants people to eat insects too. So does the BBC. And Time. The list is endless.

This is – to use an overused word – gaslighting of the highest degree.

They are at once saying “hey, we all need to eat insects to save the world”, and then claiming anyone who repeats it back at them is a conspiracy theorist.

To encompass how mad this is you have to picture it being done on an interpersonal level.

Imagine a double-glazing salesman comes to your door, wearing a double-glazing company logo and holding a double-glazing sales catalogue and says “I think you should buy some double-glazing”.

To which you reply, “No thanks I don’t need any double glazing.”

At this point the man screams “Double glazing? Who said anything about double glazing!? You lunatic!” storms off down the path, gets in his double-glazing van and drives away.

It’s just that insane.

Climate Lockdowns are the third “conspiracy theory” the Guardian warns us about, claiming:

The ISD identified “climate lockdown” as the catchphrase for the conspiracy that the climate crisis will be used as a pretext for depriving citizens of liberty.

But climate lockdowns are not a conspiracy theory either, they were first posited in a report in October 2020 published by Project Syndicate and the World Council for Sustainable Development. The proposed lockdown included banning private vehicles, the consumption of red meat and “extreme energy-saving measures”.

Since then we have been inundated with peer-review studies, claiming lockdown is good for the environment.

The Guardian itself headlined, in March 2021:

Global lockdown every two years needed to meet Paris CO2 goals – study

It was such an unpopular story that they sneakily changed the headline.

It’s fairly clear that “climate lockdowns” are far from a conspiracy theory, that they were planned and then abandoned (or delayed) due to public anger at the first lockdown.

*  *  *

So, it looks like at least three of these “conspiracy theories” MPs are being “warned against” are actually…true. At least partially.

Oh well.

Still, it’s reassuring to know that unnamed experts from billionaire-funded NGOs are writing “guides” teaching our elected officials about the dangers of wrongthink.

What a great way to “safeguard the integrity of our democratic process”.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 02:00

The TikTok Ban Is The Next Patriot Act

Zero Hedge -

The TikTok Ban Is The Next Patriot Act

Authored by Aaron Sobczak via The Mises Institute,

HR 7521, called the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, is a recent development in American politics. TikTok has been in the news for the past few years, after the public became aware of its connections to China. The popular social media mobile app is currently owned by ByteDance Ltd, a Chinese company. China and the United States currently have a rocky relationship, leading to fears that the Chinese government could potentially use this app to spy on American citizens. Several states and counties voted to restrict the usage of the app in some ways, mostly disallowing government employees from using it on government-owned phones. Earlier this month, the United States Congress passed a piece of legislation that would restrict the app’s availability if certain requirements are not met by ByteDance.

Putting aside the idea that politicians rarely have pure motives, this act has the potential to be just as dangerous as the Patriot Act. With a supposed goal of protecting American national security, the Patriot Act granted sweeping permissions to the federal government and the National Security Agency to spy on American citizens, with far less due process. In addition to having the potential to violate privacy rights and the Fourth Amendment, this new act is a blatant attack on property rights. Mobile device manufacturers and owners have every right to install whatever software they would like, as it is their property. Any illusion of a right to national security is immediately contradicted as collective rights are positive in nature and thus not rights at all.

When looking through this act, several parts stick out.

It begins by restricting any entity from distributing, maintaining, or updating any application that is controlled by a foreign adversary. As skeptics of the state would point out, this is already problematic. It should be obvious that one cannot adequately trust the American national security regime to determine which countries or entities are adversarial. A recent egregious example would be when the United States was determined to paint Iraq, and Saddam Hussein, as a uniquely evil power that assisted with the events of 9/11. Additionally, one can point to how the Trump and Biden administrations supported covid lockdowns, thus making Americans who understood the Constitution and property rights look like enemies in the eyes of many. The state has proven itself to be incapable of telling Americans who or what they should fear.

The act then goes on to even ban the hosting of internet services that enable the use of these apps, furthering the state’s control over the internet. In addition to these fears of further government censorship, Senator Rand Paul has pointed out that many Americans own a stake in ByteDance; this restriction would mean that the government is taking away American property without suspicion of a crime. The act does not just restrict companies that are directly controlled by a foreign government but even companies that are owned by private citizens of an adversarial state. When it comes to government censorship, the Chinese government is the gold standard. The American government is following in the steps of the Chinese Communist Party. The Constitution and the natural-law-based rights that the United States was founded upon conflict greatly with this level of state censorship.

Setting aside any pretense of national security, this act will restrict competition in the American marketplace, if not incidentally. Companies such as Alphabet and Meta will benefit greatly from a huge decrease of competition in the social media marketplace. Additionally, foreign cooperation in the global marketplace serves to spread the values of capitalism and free expression. It is understood that free trade greatly reduces the risk of traditional warfare between states, resulting in greater global competition.

Further alienating states that are considered adversarial is shown to diminish peace.

This is seen in how Iran reacted to the end of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, how North Korea positively reacted to President Donald Trump’s brief attempts to normalize diplomatic relations, and how Russia reacted to the expansion and aggression of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

While not quite as wide-ranging as the Patriot Act, this recent act is dangerous in multiple ways.

The natural rights to free expression, property, and privacy are at further risk with legislation such as this.

One can point to how this will greatly support very large companies such as Alphabet and Meta in the American marketplace, companies that have spied on American citizens on behalf of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Additionally, already-estranged nations are less likely to come to any sort of reasonable agreement as they are continually backed into a corner by the global community.

Skeptical Americans who are knowledgeable of history should not trust the American national security regime to properly determine who their enemies are, or the best way to keep Americans safe.

This legislation will only give increased power to the expansive state, power that the state has proven itself unable to use judiciously.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 23:40

Chinese Stock Rally Likely To Stall Without Robust Earnings

Zero Hedge -

Chinese Stock Rally Likely To Stall Without Robust Earnings

By Henry Ren, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Earnings for China Inc. are looking somewhat better, though likely not enough to keep fueling the recent stock market rally.

Strategists say the bounce spurred by low valuations needs a full-blown earnings recovery to continue. Remember the lesson from China’s Covid reopening trade, which began favorably in late 2022 and lasted only three months.

During that period when the MSCI China Index rallied 59% from trough to peak, analysts raised forward earnings expectations by about 10%. However, earnings revisions turned negative starting in February 2023, and Chinese stocks never managed to regain their strength.

This year, after a 25% rebound from the bottom in January, Chinese stocks are once again at a tipping point, with investors turning to earnings for potential catalysts. First-quarter reports so far are decidedly mixed.

Firms listed on the mainland have recorded a 4% decline in earnings as their gross profit margins lingered at low levels, according to UBS strategists. It’s a similar picture for MSCI China components.

Companies making up a third of the benchmark index posted a 5% drop in sales, JPMorgan cautioned in a May 1 note.

Next week’s reports from big-cap internet companies probably will determine how this earnings season registers on the index level. Weak retail sales growth in March and a decline in per-capita tourist spending during the May 1-5 national holiday are bad omens for the sector, which is highly affected by consumer sentiment.

Better earnings are critically important, especially at a time when tailwinds that lifted Chinese stock gauges into bull territory are tapering off. The MSCI China Index is now technically overbought for the first time since January 2023.

Meanwhile, Japanese equities have stabilized and US markets have digested the idea that fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts are coming, reducing the urgency for global funds to diversify away from developed markets.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. The number of mainland-listed firms missing estimates declined this reporting season, and large-cap stocks are undergoing more upward earnings revisions, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Laura Wang.

Some select industries still show signs of improvement, despite macro data being “weak and mixed,” said Vivian Lin Thurston, a fund manager at William Blair Investment Management in Chicago. Export-driven companies and appliance makers have stood out, she noted.

Still, more patience is required if the recovery is to broaden. “What we do have is some better news on some specific sectors because the expectations are very low,” said Societe Generale strategist Frank Benzimra. “But it’s just too early to say that this is a sustainable upturn.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 22:20

How People Get Around In America, Europe, And Asia

Zero Hedge -

How People Get Around In America, Europe, And Asia

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, highlights the popularity of different transportation types in the Americas, Europe, and Asia, calculated by modal share.

Data for this article and visualization is sourced from ‘The ABC of Mobility’, a research paper by Rafael Prieto-Curiel (Complexity Science Hub) and Juan P. Ospina (EAFIT University), accessed through ScienceDirect.

The authors gathered their modal share data through travel surveys, which focused on the primary mode of transportation a person employs for each weekday trip. Information from 800 cities across 61 countries was collected for this study.

North American Car Culture Contrasts with the Rest of the World

In the U.S. and Canada, people heavily rely on cars to get around, no matter the size of the city. There are a few exceptions of course, such as New York, Toronto, and smaller college towns across the United States.

Note: *Excluding Mexico. Percentages are rounded.

As a result, North America’s share of public transport and active mobility (walking and biking) is the lowest amongst all surveyed regions by a significant amount.

On the other hand, public transport reigns supreme in South and Central America as well as Southern and Eastern Asia. It ties with cars in Southeastern Asia, and is eclipsed by cars in Western Asia.

As outlined in the paper, Europe sees more city-level differences in transport popularity.

For example, Utrecht, Netherlands prefers walking and biking. People in Paris and London like using their extensive transit systems. And in Manchester and Rome, roughly two out of three journeys are by car.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 22:00

Democrats Attack Judge For Delaying Trump Florida Trial

Zero Hedge -

Democrats Attack Judge For Delaying Trump Florida Trial

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

While pundits, politicians and the press have long expressed outrage over attacks on judges by former President Donald Trump, many are now attacking any judge who delays any trial of Trump before the election. Democrats have accused Judge Aileen Cannon of being politically compromised, if not conspiratorial, in her delay of the Florida trial over the mishandling of classified documents. Yet, there is ample reason for the delay that many of us anticipated in this type of case when it was filed.

For months, many of us have said that we doubt that this type of trial could be held on the rapid schedule demanded by Special Counsel Jake Smith. Smith has repeatedly sought to curtail trial review and even appellate rights of Trump to advance his schedule.

His office has made convicting Trump before the election the overriding objective of its motion — a sharp departure from past Justice Department efforts to avoid trials to influence elections.

As a criminal defense counsel, I have handled classified material cases and they are notoriously slow. Smith could have prosecuted this case in the shorter time frame if he simply charge obstruction. That would have also eliminated the glaring contrast with the handling of the Biden investigation into the current president’s retention and mishandling of classified material.

Smith decided to charge an array of document charges related to classified material. The defense must have access, review, and can appeal issue related to the classified procedures. Yet, Smith wanted both the array of document charges and a fast track to trial. The Supreme Court has agreed with Cannon that Smith desire to secure a conviction before the election is not the overriding consideration.

Judge Cannon is faced with recent admissions that the government mixed up files in the boxes and staged the famous photos of document strewn over a floor with classified jackets.

Most importantly, disputes over the relevant documents continues as expected in the case.

Nevertheless, leading democrats are denouncing Cannon as a partisan hack.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s subcommittee on federal courts and oversight subcommittee, said accused Cannon of “deliberately slow-walking the case.” Ignoring the fact that similar cases have taken much longer to go to trial, Whitehouse simply declared “it is hard for me not to reach the conclusion that this [judge] is deliberately slow-walking the case to put it into a position where should [Trump] be elected, he can order that the investigation and prosecution be terminated.”

His colleague Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) insisted that Cannon was “managing this case in a way that is making it highly unlikely that it will be resolved in a timely fashion.”

Coons added “Justice deferred is often justice denied.” It is a bizarre statement. Classified documents cases routinely take longer to go to trial. The alternative is to cut off the ability of the defense to fully review the documents and review objections for resolution before trial. Yet, because the defendant is Trump and these Democrats want the trial to influence the election, such defense protections are now evidence of judicial bias.

They, of course, ignore that Cannon has ruled repeatedly against major Trump motions in the case.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), a member of the Judiciary Committee, said Cannon’s “at it again, doing everything she can to delay.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), offered the most telling line. He said “I question whether this judge understands the magnitude or the legal import of this trial.”

Indeed, it is the timing as much as the charges that makes this so important to the Justice Department and the Democrats. Smith has crafted this case to impact the election and the failure of the court to support that effort is apparently grounds for recusal.

Blumenthal called for such a motion before the window is lost before the election: “It’s a classic dilemma for justice that a particular judicial officer may be conducting a trial that could be better done by somebody else.”

Despite the statement of his colleague Coons, this is a case where justice delayed is justice.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 21:40

Manhattan Apartment Rents Gain Momentum, Signal Potential Record Highs This Summer

Zero Hedge -

Manhattan Apartment Rents Gain Momentum, Signal Potential Record Highs This Summer

While the rent component of the consumer price index has shown a strong disinflationary trend since peaking in the summer of 2023, high-frequency data reveals rent prices in key metro areas are moving higher. 

Several high-frequency rental data points show that the cost of signing a new lease on a house or apartment is rising again despite decelerating rent component print in the March Consumer Price Index

Let's begin with Manhattan apartment rents, hitting a new record for April, Bloomberg reported, citing a new report from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

New leases signed in April topped an average of $4,250, up $9 from last April. Overall, prices peaked at $4,440 last August, sliding marginally in the fall months, and have since moved higher at the start of the year. 

Source: Bloomberg

"The question is whether we're going to beat last summer's all-time highs," said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. 

Miller pointed out that rents are likely to "beat last summer's all-time highs" given their current trajectory and momentum.  

Looking at CoreLogic data, its latest Single-Family Rent Index, which examines single-family rent price changes nationally and across major cities, "regained strength in February, posting the highest annual appreciation since April 2023," according to Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. 

CPI rents will be deflationary as they catch up to lagged real-time indicators. However, if high-frequency data continues moving upward, there's a risk CPI rents could turn back up later this year. 

If this is the case, then potentially more bad news for Bidenomics and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is enabling this fiscal trainwreck as inflation continues to crush working poor households. 

Recall, earlier this week, Stan Druckenmiller told CNBC's Joe Kernen that he rates Bidenomics an "F."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 21:20

Virtual Home Invasions: We're Not Safe From Government Peeping Toms

Zero Hedge -

Virtual Home Invasions: We're Not Safe From Government Peeping Toms

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“The privacy and dignity of our citizens is being whittled away by sometimes imperceptible steps. Taken individually, each step may be of little consequence. But when viewed as a whole, there begins to emerge a society quite unlike any we have seen—a society in which government may intrude into the secret regions of man’s life at will.”

- Justice William O. Douglas

The spirit of the Constitution, drafted by men who chafed against the heavy-handed tyranny of an imperial ruler, would suggest that one’s home is a fortress, safe from almost every kind of intrusion.

Unfortunately, a collective assault by the government’s cabal of legislators, litigators, judges and militarized police has all but succeeded in reducing that fortress—and the Fourth Amendment alongside it—to a crumbling pile of rubble.

We are no longer safe in our homes, not from the menace of a government and its army of Peeping Toms who are waging war on the last stronghold of privacy left to us as a free people.

The weapons of this particular war on the privacy and sanctity of our homes are being wielded by the government and its army of bureaucratized, corporatized, militarized mercenaries.

Government agents—with or without a warrant, with or without probable cause that criminal activity is afoot, and with or without the consent of the homeowner—are now justified in mounting virtual home invasions using surveillance technology—with or without the blessing of the courts—to invade one’s home with wiretaps, thermal imaging, surveillance cameras, aerial drones, and other monitoring devices.

Just recently, in fact, the Michigan Supreme Court gave the government the green light to use warrantless aerial drone surveillance to snoop on citizens at home and spy on their private property.

While the courts have given police significant leeway at times when it comes to physical intrusions into the privacy of one’s home (the toehold entry, the battering ram, the SWAT raid, the knock-and-talk conversation, etc.), the menace of such virtual intrusions on our Fourth Amendment rights has barely begun to be litigated, legislated and debated.

Consequently, we now find ourselves in the unenviable position of being monitored, managed, corralled and controlled by technologies that answer to government and corporate rulers.

Indeed, almost anything goes when it comes to all the ways in which the government can now invade your home and lay siege to your property.

Consider that on any given day, the average American going about his daily business will be monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways, by both government and corporate eyes and ears.

A byproduct of this surveillance age in which we live, whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency is listening in and tracking your behavior.

This doesn’t even begin to touch on the corporate trackers that monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere.

Stingray devices mounted on police cars to warrantlessly track cell phones, Doppler radar devices that can detect human breathing and movement within in a home, license plate readers that can record up to 1800 license plates per minutesidewalk and “public space” cameras coupled with facial recognition and behavior-sensing technology that lay the groundwork for police “pre-crime” programspolice body cameras that turn police officers into roving surveillance cameras, the internet of things: all of these technologies (and more) add up to a society in which there’s little room for indiscretions, imperfections, or acts of independence—especially not when the government can listen in on your phone calls, read your emails, monitor your driving habits, track your movements, scrutinize your purchases and peer through the walls of your home.

Without our realizing it, the American Police State passed the baton off to a fully-fledged Surveillance State that gives the illusion of freedom while functioning all the while like an electronic prison: controlled, watchful, inflexible, punitive, deadly and inescapable.

Nowhere to run and nowhere to hide: this is the mantra of the architects of the Surveillance State and their corporate collaborators.

Government eyes see your every move: what you read, how much you spend, where you go, with whom you interact, when you wake up in the morning, what you’re watching on television and reading on the internet.

Every move you make is being monitored, mined for data, crunched, and tabulated in order to amass a profile of who you are, what makes you tick, and how best to control you when and if it becomes necessary to bring you in line.

Cue the dawning of the Age of the Internet of Things (IoT), in which internet-connected “things” monitor your home, your health and your habits in order to keep your pantry stocked, your utilities regulated and your life under control and relatively worry-free.

The key word here, however, is control.

In the not-too-distant future, “just about every device you have—and even products like chairs, that you don’t normally expect to see technology in—will be connected and talking to each other.”

By the end of 2018, “there were an estimated 22 billion internet of things connected devices in use around the world… Forecasts suggest that by 2030 around 50 billion of these IoT devices will be in use around the world, creating a massive web of interconnected devices spanning everything from smartphones to kitchen appliances.”

As the technologies powering these devices have become increasingly sophisticated, they have also become increasingly widespread, encompassing everything from toothbrushes and lightbulbs to cars, smart meters and medical equipment.

It is estimated that 127 new IoT devices are connected to the web every second.

These Internet-connected techno gadgets include smart light bulbs that discourage burglars by making your house look occupied, smart thermostats that regulate the temperature of your home based on your activities, and smart doorbells that let you see who is at your front door without leaving the comfort of your couch.

Nest, Google’s suite of smart home products, has been at the forefront of the “connected” industry, with such technologically savvy conveniences as a smart lock that tells your thermostat who is home, what temperatures they like, and when your home is unoccupied; a home phone service system that interacts with your connected devices to “learn when you come and go” and alert you if your kids don’t come home; and a sleep system that will monitor when you fall asleep, when you wake up, and keep the house noises and temperature in a sleep-conducive state.

The aim of these internet-connected devices, as Nest proclaims, is to make “your house a more thoughtful and conscious home.” For example, your car can signal ahead that you’re on your way home, while Hue lights can flash on and off to get your attention if Nest Protect senses something’s wrong. Your coffeemaker, relying on data from fitness and sleep sensors, will brew a stronger pot of coffee for you if you’ve had a restless night.

Yet given the speed and trajectory at which these technologies are developing, it won’t be long before these devices become government informants, reporting independently on anything you might do that runs afoul of the Nanny State.

Moreover, it’s not just our homes and personal devices that are being reordered and reimagined in this connected age: it’s our workplaces, our health systems, our government, our bodies and our innermost thoughts that are being plugged into a matrix over which we have no real control.

It is expected that by 2030, we will all experience The Internet of Senses (IoS), enabled by Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), 5G, and automation. The Internet of Senses relies on connected technology interacting with our senses of sight, sound, taste, smell, and touch by way of the brain as the user interface. As journalist Susan Fourtane explains:

Many predict that by 2030, the lines between thinking and doing will blur. Fifty-nine percent of consumers believe that we will be able to see map routes on VR glasses by simply thinking of a destination… By 2030, technology is set to respond to our thoughts, and even share them with others… Using the brain as an interface could mean the end of keyboards, mice, game controllers, and ultimately user interfaces for any digital device. The user needs to only think about the commands, and they will just happen. Smartphones could even function without touch screens.

Once technology is able to access and act on your thoughts, not even your innermost thoughts will be safe from the Thought Police.

Thus far, the public response to concerns about government surveillance has amounted to a collective shrug. Yet when the government sees all and knows all and has an abundance of laws to render even the most seemingly upstanding citizen a criminal and lawbreaker, then the old adage that you’ve got nothing to worry about if you’ve got nothing to hide no longer applies.

To our detriment, we are fast approaching a world without the Fourth Amendment, where the lines between private and public property are so blurred that private property is reduced to little more than something the government can use to control, manipulate and harass you to suit its own purposes, and you the homeowner and citizen have been reduced to little more than a tenant or serf in bondage to an inflexible landlord.

When people talk about privacy, they mistakenly assume it protects only that which is hidden behind a wall or under one’s clothing. The courts have fostered this misunderstanding with their constantly shifting delineation of what constitutes an “expectation of privacy.” And technology has furthered muddied the waters.

However, privacy is so much more than what you do or say behind locked doors. It is a way of living one’s life firm in the belief that you are the master of your life, and barring any immediate danger to another person (which is far different from the carefully crafted threats to national security the government uses to justify its actions), it’s no one’s business what you read, what you say, where you go, whom you spend your time with, and how you spend your money.

As Glenn Greenwald notes:

The way things are supposed to work is that we’re supposed to know virtually everything about what [government officials] do: that’s why they’re called public servants. They’re supposed to know virtually nothing about what we do: that’s why we’re called private individuals. This dynamic—the hallmark of a healthy and free society—has been radically reversed. Now, they know everything about what we do, and are constantly building systems to know more. Meanwhile, we know less and less about what they do, as they build walls of secrecy behind which they function. That’s the imbalance that needs to come to an end. No democracy can be healthy and functional if the most consequential acts of those who wield political power are completely unknown to those to whom they are supposed to be accountable.”

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, none of this will change, no matter which party controls Congress or the White House, because despite all of the work being done to help us buy into the fantasy that things will change if we just elect the right candidate, we’ll still be prisoners of the electronic concentration camp.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 21:00

Visualizing The Copper Investment Opportunity In One Chart

Zero Hedge -

Visualizing The Copper Investment Opportunity In One Chart

Copper is essential for clean energy applications such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles (EVs), as well as for expanding electrical grids.

The surge in demand for the metal, driven by the growing adoption of these technologies, presents a unique investment opportunity for early investors in copper mining companies.

Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti introduces this chart by Sprott exploring the growing gap between copper supply and demand until 2050, based on projections from BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2023.

Projected Copper Supply vs. Demand

Copper is naturally abundant on Earth, but extracting the metal at the pace necessary for an electrified economy could be a challenge. The timeline for bringing a copper mine from discovery to production is lengthy, averaging over 16 years.

Top producers like Chile and Peru are facing strikes and protests, along with declining ore grades. Russia, ranked seventh in copper production, faces an expected decline in production due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the increasing adoption of carbon-free technology only highlights copper’s significance. 

High Demand for Transport and Electricity Grid

The demand for copper in the transport sector is projected to increase by 11.1 times by 2050, from 2022. EVs, for example, can contain more than a mile of copper wiring.

Additionally, the demand for copper needed to expand the global electricity grid is projected to increase by 4.8 times by 2050, from 2022.

By 2030, the copper supply gap is projected to approach 10 million metric tons, with both copper prices and copper mining stocks potentially set to benefit.

As the world embraces clean technologies, the search for and expansion of copper mines will be essential. Early investors who gain exposure to copper miners may benefit from the rapidly increasing demand.

Sprott offers convenient exchange-traded alternatives for investors seeking exposure to copper miners. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 20:40

Republican Introduces Bill Requiring Proof Of Citizenship To Vote

Zero Hedge -

Republican Introduces Bill Requiring Proof Of Citizenship To Vote

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) has introduced a bill in the lower chamber of Congress that would ensure that illegal immigrants do not vote in federal elections.

The U.S. Capitol building during a rainy day in Washington on April 2, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

The Epoch Times first obtained a copy of the bill, dubbed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act.

The bill is being introduced with the support of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who vowed to bring up such a bill during an appearance with former President Donald Trump weeks ago.

Although noncitizen voting in federal elections is already unlawful, past Supreme Court decisions limit states’ power to ensure that voters are citizens.

Mr. Roy’s bill seeks to strengthen safeguards around voter registration to ensure compliance with existing law against noncitizens voting.

To this end, it demands that a state “shall not accept and process an application to register to vote in an election for Federal office unless the applicant presents documentary proof of United States citizenship with the application.”

Speaking at a May 8 press conference in support of the legislation, Mr. Johnson tied it to ongoing protests at campuses across the United States.

“In recent days, we’ve seen a growing number of folks on student visas show their willingness to break the law and utterly disrupt our way of life and threaten law-abiding students who are actually American citizens,” Mr. Johnson said. “If they’re willing to take over buildings and physically terrorize their fellow students, why would they not be willing to lie on a voter registration form?”

Stephen Miller, a former senior adviser to President Trump, also commented during the press conference.

If Hakeem Jeffries and his Democrat members try to kill this bill, they will be declaring to the whole country that they want Joe Biden’s illegals to vote in this election,” Mr. Miller said.

‘Sacred Right and Responsibility’

The bill lists several acceptable documents to verify the citizenship of a would-be voter, including a REAL ID compliant identification, a U.S. passport, a military ID card, or any valid state, federal or tribal identification, such as a birth certificate, hospital record, or adoption certificate, showing that the individual was born in, or is a naturalized citizen of, the United States.

The bill also provides for accommodations for mail-in voting registration or those unable to produce documentary proof of citizenship, who can undergo a separate process to have their citizenship verified.

States would also be required to “take affirmative steps on an ongoing basis to ensure that only United States citizens are registered to vote,” including clearing the voter rolls of those who are ineligible to vote due to their status as noncitizens. To that end, the bill also clarifies the conditions under which a state may seek to remove an individual from voter rolls.

Additionally, the bill would require the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security to investigate noncitizens who are illegally registered to vote, up to and including the possibility of removal proceedings.

The same bill will be introduced to the Democrat-controlled Senate by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who encouraged that it be taken up and passed in a statement to The Epoch Times.

Thousands of illegal immigrants are being given voter registration forms and driver’s licenses, allowing them to cast illegitimate ballots on election day,” Mr. Lee said. “At a time when trust in voting is more important than ever, we must stop foreign election interference and pass the SAVE Act.

“Voting is both a sacred right and responsibility of American citizenship, and allowing the people of other nations access to our elections is a grave blow to our security and self-governance. I’m proud to stand with Chip Roy to save our democratic process and representative government.”

Mr. Lee also spoke during the press conference.

“There is not a good, legitimate reason to oppose this bill,” he said. “In fact, there are all kinds of things that would be wrong with this institution if it failed immediately to pass this bill and send it to the President for his signature.”

Speaking with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Johnson explained why the conference is pursuing this legislation now.

During his remarks, he noted that as many as 16 million new illegal immigrants could have entered the country under President Joe Biden’s term in office. Estimates of the exact number vary widely.

Among the problems that flows from this open border catastrophe is directly related to this threat to election integrity,” Mr. Johnson said.

Current Law

Mr. Johnson tied his concerns primarily to the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (NVRA), otherwise dubbed the “Motor Voter” law, which allows people to register to vote at the same time that they pick up a driver’s license from their state’s Department of Motor Vehicles or other state agencies.

However, the law does not allow states to seek documentary proof of citizenship, instead requiring that they take an individual’s word that they are a citizen unless the individual’s eligibility is called into question.

A 2013 Supreme Court decision in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona expanded on the law, finding that the federal law supersedes existing state laws requiring documentary proof to vote—effectively banning states from imposing such requirements for federal voter registration.

Speaking about this law, Mr. Johnson said, “we think that’s a serious problem”—one that he said Republicans will seek to amend.

As so many illegal immigrants are already in the country, current law raises red flags that could potentially affect the outcome of the election, Mr. Johnson said.

“There’s so many millions of illegals in the country, that if only one out of one hundred voted, they would cast potentially hundreds of thousands of votes,” Mr. Johnson said. “That could turn an election.”

Critics of the bill have retorted that federal law already prohibits illegal immigrants from voting—a fact which they say makes the bill redundant.

However, due to the Supreme Court’s expansion of the NVRA in 2013, existing laws include no solid mechanism for states to ensure that their voters are citizens.

It’s unclear when the bill will be taken up in the lower chamber. But with Mr. Johnson’s blessing, it’s all but certain to come to the floor—forcing Democrats onto the record on the issue as immigration becomes a top concern for voters.

With Republicans’ slim majority, the bill has good odds of passing the lower chamber; it faces longer odds in the Democrat-controlled Senate, where Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) decides what comes to the floor.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 20:20

Meet The Company Helping Restart The Nuclear Revolution In The U.S.

Zero Hedge -

Meet The Company Helping Restart The Nuclear Revolution In The U.S.

A company called Holtec has become the voice for restarting the nuclear power revolution in the U.S.

As it becomes clear that the nation's needs for power are far underserved, and will certainly be in the future with the adoption of AI, one company, currently the "top US manufacturer of storage equipment for nuclear waste", is advocating for restarting cold reactors across the country. 

Lately, the company's ambitions have soared. Since 2019, it's acquired four retired nuclear plants originally intending to decommission them: Indian Point (NY), Oyster Creek (NJ), Pilgrim (MA), and Palisades (MI), according to Bloomberg.

Tearing down old reactors promised good returns due to the hefty trust funds tied to cleanup costs. Holtec quickly became the nation's leading nuclear decommissioner.

And, as the report notes, despite initially purchasing Palisades to dismantle it, Holtec is now planning to restart the reactor with a $1.5 billion loan from the DOE, marking the first time a cold reactor would be revived in the U.S. However, Holtec lacks experience in running nuclear plants.

While concerns have been raised due to Holtec's safety violations in the past four years of decommissioning, others consider such infractions normal in this tightly regulated industry. Nevertheless, nuclear power is increasingly seen as key to curbing greenhouse gas emissions, and Holtec aims to have Palisades online again soon and launch its own small modular reactors (SMRs) by the end of the decade. 

SMRs, factory-built reactors that can be assembled onsite, represent a highly complex and largely unproven endeavor for Holtec and the industry - yet one we have written about extensively as the obvious next step for the industry. Just yesterday we highlighted Sam Altman's now-greenlighted nuclear SPAC, trading under ALCC before switching to OKLO at the end of this week. 

Holtec, meanwhile, is headquartered in Jupiter, Florida, but its business hub is the Camden, New Jersey campus and factory. Founder and CEO Krishna Singh's office overlooks the Delaware River, facing Philadelphia, where he earned a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from the University of Pennsylvania in 1972 after emigrating from India.

He specialized in heat-exchange systems, crucial training for reactor design, which involves managing the high temperatures generated by fission reactions to produce power.

Bloomberg writes that Holtec made its mark with a storage system for spent uranium fuel rods, addressing the mid-1980s problem of overcrowded indoor cooling pools. Singh's innovation was a durable rack that minimized fuel rod movement during earthquakes, allowing plants to store more rods in the pools. With this patented design, he founded Holtec, and within a few years, his racks dominated the market.

Traditionally, decommissioning involved shutting down reactors and letting them sit for decades. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) gives operators up to 60 years to complete the process, funded by a trust built from utility ratepayer contributions. For instance, Palisades had $552 million in its trust fund when it closed. The long timeline allows funds to grow and radioactivity to decay.

However, Holtec, NorthStar Group Services Inc., and EnergySolutions Inc. have adopted a different approach, starting decommissioning much earlier. Leveraging their expertise with radioactive materials, they complete the job in years instead of decades, keeping a share of any leftover trust fund money.

"Not only does Holtec intend to bring Palisades back online, it also plans by the end of the decade to have its own small modular reactors up and running," Bloomberg writes.

Back in April we had previously written that a lot of the U.S.'s reactors could wind up coming back online. "There are a couple of nuclear power plants that we probably should, and can, turn back on," Jigar Shah, director of the US Energy Department's Loan Programs Office, told Bloomberg in an interview.

In March, Shah's office approved a loan to Holtec International Corp. to reopen the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan. This was a historical shift, and it was the first nuclear power plant to be reopened in the US, setting a precedent for atomic energy to make a triumphal comeback. The plant could begin producing power as early as the second half of 2025.

Nuclear power is the largest single source of carbon-free electricity. Given onshoring trends, electrification of transportation and buildings, and, of course, as we've noted in "The Next AI Trade," the proliferation of AI data centers will overload power grids nationwide unless a significant upgrade is seen.

We again highlighted the enormous investment opportunity last month titled "Everyone Is Piling Into The "Next AI Trade"", which lists companies powering up America for the digital age.

Nearly 3.5 years ago, we provided readers with a straightforward investment thesis: "Buy Uranium: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze" Back then, it became apparent to us that the resurrection of the nuclear power industry was imminent. 

And the trend is only gaining steam as the revival of nuclear power plants will continue benefiting some of the largest uranium producers, such as Cameco. We told readers to buy uranium stocks, such as Cameco around the $10 handle - now it's at $50 a share. 

You can read Bloomberg's full feature on Holtec here

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 20:00

Decline Of Senior Officer Integrity And Civilian Control Of The Military

Zero Hedge -

Decline Of Senior Officer Integrity And Civilian Control Of The Military

Authored by Keith T. Holcomb via RealClearDefense,

Public confidence in the military has slipped. One major reason is the politicization of senior military officers, who show an increasing propensity to compromise their integrity to gain influence and achieve both budgetary and policy goals. Their willingness to spin carefully parsed and knowingly misleading testimony and advice compromises civilian control of the military. Simply stated, these generals and admirals are not providing full and complete representations of plans, concepts, and assessments to senior civilians in the executive and legislative branches, thereby depriving them of the unbiased information they require to make decisions required by the Constitution.

In an era of increasing complexity, cleverly constructed narratives that present simplified, politicized positions to the general population have taken on out-sized importance. Senior officers increasingly are attempting to manipulate policy making by intentionally reducing complex reality to simple narratives designed to appeal to partisan audiences. 

Integrity has two meanings pertinent to this issue: the common understanding of integrity as honesty and the less common and more formal understanding of integrity as the quality of being whole and complete. 

Preparation for and experience in combat develops strong wills. Senior officers motivated by the desire to get the biggest possible piece of the pie for their services are tempted to dissemble to win the internecine budget and policy fights that are the lifeblood of official Washington. When these wills are not properly constrained by higher commitments to integrity and respect for the decision-making province of civilian authorities, generals and admirals can succumb to the temptation to deceive. 

These deceptions can take many forms. A senior officer can choose to highlight some information. Conversely, they can obfuscate, discredit, or ignore other information. They can allude to expert knowledge or classified information to undercut or deflect questions that challenge their assertions. They can use the age-old technique of making strawmen of opposing views. Worse, they can engage in or encourage subordinates or cultivated commentators to engage in ad hominem attacks on the messengers of alternate views. 

While the hyper-political environment sees daily evidence of such behaviors, some senior officers have exercised considerable self-discipline and have not let advocacy for a position override respect for the prerogatives of senior civilians. In short, just because they have the leadership persona, verbal skills, and communication staffs to construct one-sided positions and perhaps even succeed in the manipulation of some people, they have worked to develop full and balanced representations of the issues at hand. Theirs has been a triumph of professional ethics over the abuse of information to achieve their ends.

Regrettably, that admirable conduct is in decline and that decline is a contributing factor for decreasing public trust in the military. The American public may not know the specific capabilities of various weapons or the operational implications of various policies. But constant exposure to spun narratives has trained them to recognize manipulation when they see and hear it. Many resent being manipulated, and their sense that such techniques are being used by the Nation’s most senior officers undermines their trust and confidence in the military. The military was once recognized as a profession culturally apart from the rest of society, but no longer. America’s military, and its senior officers especially, are increasingly viewed as no less cynically self-interested than the rest of the elite class.

The decline of senior officer integrity increasingly impacts civilian decision makers. Not long ago, overbooked national leaders could confidently “repose special trust and confidence” in the senior officers providing assessments and recommendations to them. The disciplined and honorable behaviors of past generations of generals and admirals certainly validated this special trust and confidence. But, with a rise in manipulative narratives, civilian leaders and their staffs are more likely to feel compelled to dig into the details of complex military matters to gain the full and complete picture they need to discharge their responsibilities.

In short, it is past time for senior officers to forego their increasing addiction to the power opiate of clever narratives and work to present full and balanced representations of the issues at hand.

Absent immediate internal reform by the Department of Defense, civilian leaders will increasingly have to turn, just as they have with other federal agencies, to independent investigations to gain a more complete understanding of national security issues.

Brigadier General Keith T. Holcomb, (U.S. Marine Corps, ret.), is a former USMC Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His last assignment was as Director of the Training and Education Division, U.S. Marine Corps Combat Development Command.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 19:40

Huawei's New 'Made-In-China' Smartphone Sources More Chips Locally Amid US Tech War 

Zero Hedge -

Huawei's New 'Made-In-China' Smartphone Sources More Chips Locally Amid US Tech War 

With draconian export controls and blacklisting by Washington elites, Chinese tech giant Huawei is still operating and, in fact, producing new high-tech smartphones with components increasingly sourced from domestic suppliers. 

A new teardown analysis by tech repair company iFixit and consultancy TechSearch International, first reported by Reuters, shows Huawei's Pura 70 Pro has a NAND memory chip sourced domestically from the Chinese telecom equipment maker's in-house chip unit, HiSilicon. 

iFixit and TechSearch found the Pura 70 handset was operating on a Huawei-made advanced processing chipset called the Kirin 9010. They said the new chip is likely an "improved version" of the advanced chip used by Huawei's Mate 60 series, which was launched last year to compete with Apple's iPhone 15 lineup. 

"While we cannot provide an exact percentage, we'd say the domestic component usage is high, and definitely higher than in the Mate 60," Shahram Mokhtari, iFixit's lead teardown technician, said. 

Mokhtari continued, "This is about self-sufficiency, all of this, everything you see when you open up a smartphone and see whatever are made by Chinese manufacturers, this is all about self-sufficiency," Mokhtari said.

The central theme is that a worsening tech war between Beijing and Washington pushes Huawei to source more handset components in domestic markets. This is an alarming development for Washington politicians, who have spent several years sanctioning China to prevent them from acquiring high-tech Western chips and chip-making tools, as well as the hope of imploding China's tech-creating abilities. However, the restrictions are backfiring, as Huawei now manufactures smartphones with more domestically sourced chips than ever.  

Just wait for the day when Chinese state media, such as the Global Times, boasts that Huawei's phones are made entirely with domestic parts. Given the current trajectory, we believe that day is approaching.

Reuters cited analysts who believe Huawei's phones are denting iPhone market share in the world's largest handset market. 

However, since the Pura 70's components are not entirely sourced domestically, IFixit and TechSearch's analysis shows South Korean company SK Hynix makes the DRAM chip. 

Given the chip restrictions, SK Hynix told Reuters it had been "strictly complying with the relevant policies since the restrictions against Huawei were announced and has also suspended any transactions with the company since then."

The analysis showed that the processor used by the Pura 70 Pro was 7 nanometers (nm), similar to the chip used to power the Mate 60. 

"This is significant because news of the 9000S on a 7nm node caused a bit of a panic last year when US lawmakers were confronted with the possibility that the sanctions imposed on Chinese chipmakers might not slow their technological progress after all," iFixit said.

iFixit continued, "The fact that the 9010 is still a 7nm process chip, and that it's so close to the 9000S, might seem to suggest that Chinese chip manufacturing has indeed been slowed."

The re-emergence of Huawei, taking on Apple, has infuriated Washington. There was a report from Bloomberg earlier this week that the US revoked licenses that allowed Huawei to buy semiconductors from Qualcomm and Intel. 

The biggest takeaway: Huawei is on a mission to entirely source components from local suppliers as the tech war between China and the US heats up. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/09/2024 - 19:20

"Mortgage Rates Technically at Lowest Levels in a Month"

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Technically at Lowest Levels in a Month
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" ... the above has played out in a very narrow range in the bigger picture. The big spike on April 10th was in a completely different league and it was exclusively a response to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). With that in mind, the next CPI will be released next Wednesday. It has just as much power to cause just as big of a move as it did last time, for better or worse. [30 year fixed 7.18%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May).

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