Oakland Mayor, Who Supported 'Defund The Police' Has Her Car Stolen

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

An alleged thief stole Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee’s city-owned vehicle after breaking into her office just two days earlier, according to the California edition of the New York Post. 

The Oakland Police Department recovered the vehicle within hours, two days after somebody tampered with her office’s door. 

“The Oakland Police Department is investigating the theft of a city-owned vehicle. On February 17, 2026, OPD was notified that the vehicle was stolen from Oakland City Hall,” the OPD said through a spokesperson.

“The vehicle was recovered within hours. OPD is following up on potential leads.” 

Lee took office in May 2025 after serving more than two decades in Congress.

She previously expressed support for efforts to “restructure” and “overhaul” policing during the 2020 protests, language widely associated with the “defund the police” movement. 

In 2020, she told Politico she was “really proud” of the Minneapolis City Council’s pledge to defund the local police. 

In December 2020, she also said, “We have to restructure our funding priorities in terms of how we make our communities safe.” 

“We have seen video after video over the last few weeks of peaceful protestors being met with extreme violence from police,” Lee said during the 2020 protest in favor of George Floyd.

“We can’t wait. It’s time to overhaul our policing system.”  

According to the New York Post, police already had an arrest warrant for the alleged suspect.  

In a statement, Lee claimed her administration takes crimes seriously:  

“As with criminal cases such as this, the Oakland Police Department is actively investigating, and we cannot comment further at this time. No one in Oakland should have to worry about their car being stolen, whether they’re a resident, a city worker, or the Mayor. Public safety is a priority across our entire city.” 

The theft comes amid a broader problem for Oakland as the city reported 9,914 motor vehicle thefts in 2024, one of the highest rates in the country. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 13:20

Oakland Mayor, Who Supported 'Defund The Police' Has Her Car Stolen

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

An alleged thief stole Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee’s city-owned vehicle after breaking into her office just two days earlier, according to the California edition of the New York Post. 

The Oakland Police Department recovered the vehicle within hours, two days after somebody tampered with her office’s door. 

“The Oakland Police Department is investigating the theft of a city-owned vehicle. On February 17, 2026, OPD was notified that the vehicle was stolen from Oakland City Hall,” the OPD said through a spokesperson.

“The vehicle was recovered within hours. OPD is following up on potential leads.” 

Lee took office in May 2025 after serving more than two decades in Congress.

She previously expressed support for efforts to “restructure” and “overhaul” policing during the 2020 protests, language widely associated with the “defund the police” movement. 

In 2020, she told Politico she was “really proud” of the Minneapolis City Council’s pledge to defund the local police. 

In December 2020, she also said, “We have to restructure our funding priorities in terms of how we make our communities safe.” 

“We have seen video after video over the last few weeks of peaceful protestors being met with extreme violence from police,” Lee said during the 2020 protest in favor of George Floyd.

“We can’t wait. It’s time to overhaul our policing system.”  

According to the New York Post, police already had an arrest warrant for the alleged suspect.  

In a statement, Lee claimed her administration takes crimes seriously:  

“As with criminal cases such as this, the Oakland Police Department is actively investigating, and we cannot comment further at this time. No one in Oakland should have to worry about their car being stolen, whether they’re a resident, a city worker, or the Mayor. Public safety is a priority across our entire city.” 

The theft comes amid a broader problem for Oakland as the city reported 9,914 motor vehicle thefts in 2024, one of the highest rates in the country. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 13:20

Goldman's Meeting With Top Memory Supplier Points To Higher Prices As Crunch Worsens

The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortage is already pressuring the margins of consumer electronics companies, disrupting product launches, and pushing up the prices of TVs and computers. The latest development is Valve's handheld gaming PC, which is reportedly out of stock in select regions as the memory crunch now filters into retail availability.

We have been leaning on institutional channel checks across the semis and hardware coverage universe to gain an insider's perspective on what's happening across the memory space and what to potentially expect in the quarters ahead.

The latest read comes from Goldman analysts led by Giuni Lee, following a discussion with SK Hynix, a critical supplier of HBM chips, on the implications of a very tight memory market.

Lee offered clients five key takeaways from her conversation with SK Hynix:

1. Memory pricing is likely to growth throughout this year driven by real demand and tight supply,

2. Healthy inventory levels and strengthening supplier leverage are leading to increased discussions around longer term contracts,

3. The current tight conventional DRAM S/D could lead to more favorable terms for HBM business in 2027,

4. The 1c nm ramp in 2026 mainly for conventional DRAM, while for HBM mainly starting from 2027, and

5. Capex guidance and focus on DRAM/HBM investments are largely inline with GSe. We reiterate our Buy rating on Hynix

On the memory market, Lee delivered clients a detailed readout on current conditions:

Memory pricing growth likely throughout this year driven by real demand and tight supply

Hynix thinks the current memory pricing uptrend could continue throughout this year driven by robust demand from AI customers. The company expects AI customers will continue to maintain sizable investment scale as they are making meaningful progress in their AI services. While the company acknowledged potential despeccing from PC/mobile customers could weigh on memory demand, it still expects upward pricing trajectory also led by limited supply growth. The company mentioned that the industry-wide limited clean room space is contributing to tight supply and favorable condition for memory pricing. The company sees low possibility of meaningful double-booking of memory orders, as customers are aware that memory capacity cannot be increased meaningfully in the short-term, hence they recognize double-booking will not lead to more allocation but rather drive up pricing further.

The rest of Lee's takeaways from her discussion with SK Hynix are available on the Marketdesk.ai portal for professional subscribers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 12:40

Goldman's Meeting With Top Memory Supplier Points To Higher Prices As Crunch Worsens

The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortage is already pressuring the margins of consumer electronics companies, disrupting product launches, and pushing up the prices of TVs and computers. The latest development is Valve's handheld gaming PC, which is reportedly out of stock in select regions as the memory crunch now filters into retail availability.

We have been leaning on institutional channel checks across the semis and hardware coverage universe to gain an insider's perspective on what's happening across the memory space and what to potentially expect in the quarters ahead.

The latest read comes from Goldman analysts led by Giuni Lee, following a discussion with SK Hynix, a critical supplier of HBM chips, on the implications of a very tight memory market.

Lee offered clients five key takeaways from her conversation with SK Hynix:

1. Memory pricing is likely to growth throughout this year driven by real demand and tight supply,

2. Healthy inventory levels and strengthening supplier leverage are leading to increased discussions around longer term contracts,

3. The current tight conventional DRAM S/D could lead to more favorable terms for HBM business in 2027,

4. The 1c nm ramp in 2026 mainly for conventional DRAM, while for HBM mainly starting from 2027, and

5. Capex guidance and focus on DRAM/HBM investments are largely inline with GSe. We reiterate our Buy rating on Hynix

On the memory market, Lee delivered clients a detailed readout on current conditions:

Memory pricing growth likely throughout this year driven by real demand and tight supply

Hynix thinks the current memory pricing uptrend could continue throughout this year driven by robust demand from AI customers. The company expects AI customers will continue to maintain sizable investment scale as they are making meaningful progress in their AI services. While the company acknowledged potential despeccing from PC/mobile customers could weigh on memory demand, it still expects upward pricing trajectory also led by limited supply growth. The company mentioned that the industry-wide limited clean room space is contributing to tight supply and favorable condition for memory pricing. The company sees low possibility of meaningful double-booking of memory orders, as customers are aware that memory capacity cannot be increased meaningfully in the short-term, hence they recognize double-booking will not lead to more allocation but rather drive up pricing further.

The rest of Lee's takeaways from her discussion with SK Hynix are available on the Marketdesk.ai portal for professional subscribers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 12:40

Meta's AI Would Like To Keep You Posting After You're Dead

Ever since social media became a fixture of daily life, an uncomfortable question has lingered: what should happen to someone’s account after they die? Leave it frozen in time? Hand it to family members as a memorial? Or quietly let it fade into the algorithm?

A few years ago, Meta Platforms explored a far more ambitious possibility, according to Futurism. In 2023, the company received a patent describing how a large language model could be trained on a user’s past posts to simulate their voice and behavior — keeping an account active if the person were “absent,” including in the event of death. The filing, led by CTO Andrew Bosworth, outlined how such a system could generate posts, comments, likes, and even private messages in the user’s style.

The idea was striking, and for many, unsettling. Meta has since said it has no plans to move forward with that example. But the patent offers a snapshot of a moment when tech companies were aggressively testing the limits of what generative AI might do — including extending a person’s digital presence beyond their lifetime.

The Futurism piece says that the concept isn’t entirely theoretical. A small but growing “grief tech” sector has promoted AI tools that recreate voices or personalities of the deceased using photos, recordings, and written messages. Proponents argue that such tools could offer comfort. Critics worry they could complicate the grieving process.

Even within Meta’s own public comments, there has been ambivalence. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has spoken about AI companions as a way to address loneliness and, in a 2023 interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, suggested that interacting with digital representations of loved ones might help some people cope with loss. He also acknowledged the psychological risks and the need for deeper study.

The business logic behind such experiments is difficult to ignore. Platforms like Facebook are filled with dormant accounts — profiles that remain but are rarely updated. More AI-generated activity could mean more engagement and more data. As University of Birmingham law professor Edina Harbinja observed, the commercial incentive is clear, even if the ethical path forward is not.

Others urge caution. University of Virginia sociologist Joseph Davis has argued that part of grieving involves confronting the reality of loss, not blurring it with simulations.

Meta has distanced itself from the patent’s more provocative scenario. Still, its existence underscores how far companies have been willing to push generative AI — and how complex the questions become when technology intersects with death, memory, and identity.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 12:00

Meta's AI Would Like To Keep You Posting After You're Dead

Ever since social media became a fixture of daily life, an uncomfortable question has lingered: what should happen to someone’s account after they die? Leave it frozen in time? Hand it to family members as a memorial? Or quietly let it fade into the algorithm?

A few years ago, Meta Platforms explored a far more ambitious possibility, according to Futurism. In 2023, the company received a patent describing how a large language model could be trained on a user’s past posts to simulate their voice and behavior — keeping an account active if the person were “absent,” including in the event of death. The filing, led by CTO Andrew Bosworth, outlined how such a system could generate posts, comments, likes, and even private messages in the user’s style.

The idea was striking, and for many, unsettling. Meta has since said it has no plans to move forward with that example. But the patent offers a snapshot of a moment when tech companies were aggressively testing the limits of what generative AI might do — including extending a person’s digital presence beyond their lifetime.

The Futurism piece says that the concept isn’t entirely theoretical. A small but growing “grief tech” sector has promoted AI tools that recreate voices or personalities of the deceased using photos, recordings, and written messages. Proponents argue that such tools could offer comfort. Critics worry they could complicate the grieving process.

Even within Meta’s own public comments, there has been ambivalence. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has spoken about AI companions as a way to address loneliness and, in a 2023 interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, suggested that interacting with digital representations of loved ones might help some people cope with loss. He also acknowledged the psychological risks and the need for deeper study.

The business logic behind such experiments is difficult to ignore. Platforms like Facebook are filled with dormant accounts — profiles that remain but are rarely updated. More AI-generated activity could mean more engagement and more data. As University of Birmingham law professor Edina Harbinja observed, the commercial incentive is clear, even if the ethical path forward is not.

Others urge caution. University of Virginia sociologist Joseph Davis has argued that part of grieving involves confronting the reality of loss, not blurring it with simulations.

Meta has distanced itself from the patent’s more provocative scenario. Still, its existence underscores how far companies have been willing to push generative AI — and how complex the questions become when technology intersects with death, memory, and identity.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 12:00

Inflation Fears Plummet As UMich's Democratic Bias Is Exposed

After rebounding strongly in preliminary February data (as Democrats came to their senses over the fearmongered Trump tariff-flation), the final UMich sentiment survey print slipped lower with the headline lowered from 57.3 to 56.6. Both Current Conditions and Expectations were lower than the flash print with the latter falling to 2 month lows and the former holding at 4-month highs...

Does anyone else think its weird that all the numbers were exactly the same at 56.6

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats and Republicans led the decrease in inflation expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

UMich Survey Director Joanna Hsu noted that "all index components posted insignificant movements this month; overall, consumers do not perceive any material differences in the economy from last month."

Democrats confidence is at its highest since July 2025...

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.4% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025.

Hsu concludes that "A sizable month-to-month increase in sentiment for the largest stockholders was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings. Similar divergences were seen across income and education, where higher-income or college educated consumers exhibited increases in sentiment while lower-income or less-educated counterparts did not. With their much stronger income prospects and investment porfolios, wealthier and higher-income consumers feel better insulated from any possible risks to the economy."

Finally, why all this is nonsense (h/t @MikeZaccardi via FundStrat)

Why did UMich suddenly starting weighting their survey to Democrats when Trump was elected?

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 11:15

Inflation Fears Plummet As UMich's Democratic Bias Is Exposed

After rebounding strongly in preliminary February data (as Democrats came to their senses over the fearmongered Trump tariff-flation), the final UMich sentiment survey print slipped lower with the headline lowered from 57.3 to 56.6. Both Current Conditions and Expectations were lower than the flash print with the latter falling to 2 month lows and the former holding at 4-month highs...

Does anyone else think its weird that all the numbers were exactly the same at 56.6

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats and Republicans led the decrease in inflation expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

UMich Survey Director Joanna Hsu noted that "all index components posted insignificant movements this month; overall, consumers do not perceive any material differences in the economy from last month."

Democrats confidence is at its highest since July 2025...

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.4% this month, the lowest reading since January 2025.

Hsu concludes that "A sizable month-to-month increase in sentiment for the largest stockholders was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings. Similar divergences were seen across income and education, where higher-income or college educated consumers exhibited increases in sentiment while lower-income or less-educated counterparts did not. With their much stronger income prospects and investment porfolios, wealthier and higher-income consumers feel better insulated from any possible risks to the economy."

Finally, why all this is nonsense (h/t @MikeZaccardi via FundStrat)

Why did UMich suddenly starting weighting their survey to Democrats when Trump was elected?

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 11:15

Watch: School Kids Chant "F**k ICE" In Disturbing Classroom Presentation

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A disturbing video has surfaced showing middle school students delivering a classroom presentation that openly attacks U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and promotes unchecked immigration.

Dressed in black hoodies, the boys stand before their peers, chanting profanities and gesturing defiantly against the agents protecting America’s borders.

The footage captures the students declaring “F*ck ICE” while raising their middle fingers to federal immigration enforcement.

Students give a presentation to their class about being pro-immigration and against police officers and ICE

They say “F*ck ICE” and all give the middle finger to federal immigration enforcement

This is absolutely unacceptable. Our kids are being indoctrinated to support a… pic.twitter.com/ojhDF61pLR

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) February 19, 2026

The presentation pushes a pro-immigration stance while demonizing police and ICE, framing border security as oppression. Such displays reveal how leftist agendas have infiltrated classrooms, turning education into a breeding ground for open-borders extremism that undermines national sovereignty.

Details behind the TikTok clip have not emerged, but this incident aligns with a wave of anti-ICE activism sweeping schools nationwide.

Just weeks ago, students at North Central High School in Indianapolis staged a viral protest against ICE, with critics noting how such actions reflect disengagement from real immigration issues and instead fuel misguided opposition to law enforcement.

North Central High School in Indianapolis —which prides itself on being one of Indiana’s most diverse schools — staged an “ICE walkout” today and it looked exactly how you’d expect.

Zero federal funds should go to these institutions. pic.twitter.com/aPghhH17T3

— johnny maga (@johnnymaga) February 3, 2026

Parents and patriots are rightly outraged, seeing this as part of a broader assault on American values. When schools allow kids to spew vulgarity against those enforcing the law, it signals a dangerous shift toward anarchy.

This isn’t isolated. Recall our coverage of the Chicago high schooler assaulted for holding an “I Love ICE” sign during an anti-ICE protest. The student, Danny Spud, was punched after standing alone against the mob.

“Today, students at my high school in Chicago held an Anti-ICE protest. I was the only one that decided to hold a sign that said ‘I Love ICE’. Instead of allowing me to express my opinion, I was assaulted — Just for standing up for law enforcement,” Spud said.

Schools are also censoring conservative and religious figures. In Kansas, a guidance counselor at Marshall Elementary banned students from naming Charlie Kirk, Donald Trump, or Jesus as role models in a “Find Your Voice” assignment.

“The guidance counselor got very uncomfortable and refused to allow this name to be written on the board, yelling that he was ‘not a hero,’ and that he was not a role model,” a report noted.

Higher education fares no better. At the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, required courses shove immigration activism down students’ throats, teaching future educators to use terms like “undocumented” and resist ICE.

“No human being is illegal,” one slide proclaims. A whistleblower revealed: “I haven’t actually learned anything for education about, like, how to set up a classroom… just like basic curriculum that kids are going to be taught, like math and science.” Instead, it’s all about radical ideology.

In addition, teachers unions are funneling millions to Soros-linked groups and anti-border causes. Recent filings show the NEA sending cash to dark money outfits for protests and gerrymandering.

“This is absolutely frightening because I’ll bet you the amount of teachers that don’t know where that money is going,” Fox News commentator Emily Compagno commented. Public funds meant for learning are propping up division.

These examples paint a clear picture: America’s education system is under siege by forces intent on eroding borders, faith, and freedom.

Solutions exist. Oklahoma’s “America First Test” for certifying teachers weeds out far-left radicals, banning drag queen events and BLM propaganda. “Either evolve or dissolve,” one exposed teacher training urged—now turned against the indoctrinators. This ensures classrooms prioritize real education over activism.

Leftists panic at the idea of teaching kids to love America. When Stephen Miller announced plans to defund woke culture and promote patriotism, Jemele Hill declared, “This should frighten everyone.” But as Miller stated: “Children will be taught to love America. Children will be taught to be patriots.” Why fear pride in the greatest nation?

 

America’s future hinges on reclaiming schools from this toxic grip. Defund the radicals, empower parents, and restore education that builds patriots—not pawns for globalist schemes. The fight for our kids’ minds is the fight for the republic.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 10:30

2025 New Home Sales Highest Since 2021

US New Home Sales dipped 1.7% MoM in December (after a 15.5% MoM surge in November)...

...but ended the year at 745k - the highest SAAR since 2021...

"New" home sales have notably decoupled from "used" home sales in the last few years as homebuilders incentivize buyers (reducing margins) and lower prices (reducing revenues)...

Lower mortgage rates support modest further improvements in sales...

Will this be Trump's lead on housing affordability?

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 10:24

Matt Taibbi: Epstein Files Are "Uniquely Destructive" To Both Political Parties

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

This week I interviewed Matt Taibbi at a moment when, as he put it, “this is a pretty weird time.” He had just learned that his outlet, Racket News, had been investigated by the British government using what he described as “human intelligence sources and all kinds of crazy stuff.”

“It’s been pretty weird,” he told me. What struck him most was how normalized this kind of pressure has become. Governments, he said, now routinely “hire out private intelligence firms and private PR firms to devise strategies to undermine negative press.” If you’re doing adversarial reporting, he added, “you’ll get swept up in this. So you probably have been, you just don’t know it.”

From there, we moved into the Epstein story, which has become a political third rail. I asked him whether bipartisan silence around certain issues should worry people. Taibbi said most of what happens in Washington is already bipartisan; the public just doesn’t see it. “The thing that we call the news,” he said, is “a sliver of disagreement” between parties. The rest—“98% of the business that’s done there”—happens with quiet agreement.

On the Epstein files, he argued that both parties miscalculated. The Trump camp, he said, built expectations around full transparency and then stumbled. “Dumping tons of stuff out without any context tends to have a lot of unintended consequences,” he said. The result has been politically damaging across the board.

He also pushed back on some of the public narrative. The fascination with Epstein, he said, rests on three assumptions: that Epstein worked for intelligence, that he ran a vast trafficking ring, and that the two were connected through political blackmail. “There’s an abundance of evidence” of serious sexual crimes, he acknowledged. But on the intelligence-blackmail theory, “there’s nothing that puts it all together and says that’s what was happening. It could, but it’s just not there yet.”

What he does see is a slow-burn release strategy. “You’ll notice that they never fully release everything,” he told me. “It’s like Zeno’s paradox. We’re never going to get all the way to the wall with this.” Each new tranche fuels public demand and media frenzy, with the promise that the next batch might contain the “kill shot” that takes down someone powerful.

We then shifted to New York politics and the rise of Zohran Mamdani. Taibbi sees his early proposals—like raising property taxes—as predictable. If state-level backing doesn’t materialize, he suggested, the Democratic Party may distance itself. “The Democratic Party has decided not to back this horse,” he said. In his view, the party faces a structural dilemma: a base that is moving left out of economic frustration, and a national electoral map that may not tolerate that shift.

He connected that frustration to student debt and monetary policy. When I brought up inflation and deficit spending, he traced the arc back to post-2008 policies and the explosion of quantitative easing. “All you’re doing is accelerating inequality on the one hand,” he said, “and you’re raising the debt burden for everybody else.” The result, he argued, is a generation that feels locked out of homeownership and upward mobility.

On immigration and recent ICE enforcement actions, Taibbi resisted simple partisanship. He said he found neighborhood sweeps and masked agents “scary,” comparing aspects of the approach to “an enhanced federal version of stop and frisk.” At the same time, he criticized the ideological shift that made even basic border enforcement seem taboo. “It’s not like having borders is inherently xenophobic,” he said. “It’s just a part of governance. Part of being a nation.”

At the end of the conversation, Taibbi outlined changes at Racket News. He said he had “basically fired” himself as editor-in-chief and brought in new leadership to refocus on document-based investigations. The site, he told me, is doubling down on FOIA-driven reporting and digging into stories like expansive FBI investigations and the British controversy now touching his own outlet.

The through line of our discussion was less about left versus right than about institutions under strain—media, parties, law enforcement, and financial systems alike. Taibbi’s core warning was that much of what truly matters happens in the bipartisan shadows, while the public argues over the sliver that makes it onto cable news.

(WATCH THE FULL VIDEO INTERVIEW WITH MATT HERE). 

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 10:00

US & Chinese Fighter Jets In Rare Brief Face-Off Near Korea

US and Chinese fighter jets engaged in a brief aerial standoff over waters near the Korean Peninsula this week, according to South Korean media, in a rare and dangerous incident that underscores ongoing simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Yonhap, citing military sources, reported that China scrambled aircraft on Wednesday after roughly 10 US jets took off from an American airbase in South Korea for planned drills. The US had reportedly filed its flight plan in advance.

F-16 fighters assigned to US Forces Korea (USFK) launched from Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, about 60 kilometers south of Seoul, and flew near the overlapping air defense identification zones (ADIZ) of South Korea and China. The US aircraft did not enter China’s ADIZ, according to the report, but alarm bells still went off for the Chinese PLA military.

Chosun Daily: The South Korean and U.S. Air Forces conduct a joint formation flight, escorting a US Air Force B-1B 'Lancer' strategic bomber with fighter jets, following North Korea's ICBM provocation in February 2023. 

In response, "The Chinese People's Liberation Army organized naval and air forces to monitor and effectively respond to the activities throughout the process in accordance with laws and regulations," China's Global Times reported Friday.

The outlet described the episode as US warplanes operating in airspace facing China over the Yellow Sea - a move that prompted Beijing's rapid response.

"The F-16s reportedly flew to an area between the respective air defense identification zones of South Korea and China, prompting the Chinese military to dispatch its own fighter jets to the scene, but no clash occurred," Yonhap writes.

According to more unusual aspects to the incident:

The paper also noted an “unusual” number of US jets in the air, adding that it could suggest that the exercise had been “aimed at signaling deterrence toward China.”

Yonhap news agency said that Washington had informed Seoul of the planned mission, but did not elaborate.

China’s Global Times acknowledged the incident, saying that Beijing’s military “organized sea and air forces to conduct continuous monitoring… and effectively responded to and handled the situation.”

In the background, President Trump has continued to positively tout his highly anticipated trip to Beijing the first week of April. On China's red lines concerning handing over to Taiwan record-breaking arms packages, Trump has remained ambiguous...

Trump says he "wouldn't answer" a question on how the US would respond if Taiwan were attacked by China.

"I would have just said that it's none of your business right now ... When it comes to war, you don't talk about your strategy," he says.pic.twitter.com/kcih0jRPBI

— Rosie Birchard (@RosieBirchard) February 20, 2026

As for other tensions, Beijing is not happy that Washington is accusing it of conducting banned nuclear weapons detonation tests.

The CCP has responded to the accusation of an alleged 2020 test via state mouthpiece (@HuXijin_GT), saying there is an ulterior motive for the timing of this announcement: "Trump is eager to resume nuclear testing and needs a plausible reason, and accusing China of conducting nuclear tests is the perfect pretext."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 09:40

Agentic AI Isn't Eating Software – It's Feeding Market Volatility

Authored by David Parsons via BondVigilantes.com,

The sharp sell‑off across software names in recent weeks has prompted questions from investors, many centred on whether the rapid rise of agentic artificial intelligence marks the beginning of a deeper structural shift in enterprise technology.

The catalyst was the latest demonstration from Anthropic’s Claude platform, whose new “Cowork” and “Code” capabilities promise to automate tasks that were once firmly in human hands, from drafting documents and synthesising research to generating production‑ready code. Equity markets were quick to draw conclusions, punishing enterprise software companies without drawing any distinctions, based on the assumption that their software tools and embedded long term relationships were significantly devalued.

Discussions among technology specialists, both within M&G and across the broader industry, agree that the market move has been overdone. Rather than reflecting the pace or scale of disruption in the software environment, prices have been driven lower by perceived risk rather than evidence that software company valuations have been impaired by the AI revolution. The degree of weakness bears little resemblance to what is actually happening inside real enterprise businesses. Instead of a measured repricing based on a quantifiable change in credit quality, this has been a largely sentiment-driven reaction to a headline‑grabbing demonstration.

Source: M&G, Bloomberg Indices (Ref. S5SOFWTR, NDX, SPX, SISCSE, SXXP) as at 13 February 2026.

Most enterprise software vendors have already embraced the need to incorporate AI into their architecture. Many large vendors have spent years developing their products, integrating machine learning into their platforms and automating processes in compliance, risk management, customer analytics, IT operations and more. The emergence of tools like Claude sits within this longer term evolution rather than representing a sudden and existential shock. While impressive in isolation, few AI tools are ready for large scale integration into client processes. Corporate buyers, whilst keen to embrace the latest technologies, struggle to keep pace with the constant rollout of AI-led applications. In practice, procurement cycles, organisational constraints, audit trails and governance requirements will continue to slow adoption, particularly in regulated, core business processes or critical IT systems.

Existing enterprise software systems sit at the heart of major businesses, making software companies more resilient than current market pricing would suggest. Enterprise platforms anchor trading desks, risk management, regulatory reporting, client‑servicing infrastructure and internal control frameworks. They are embedded in workflows and integrated within legacy systems creating substantial financial, operational and regulatory switching costs that represent a significant ‘moat’ for software businesses. For most large organisations, reliability and continuity matter far more than theoretical productivity gains.

Despite the noise around AI agents, there is little evidence of customers abandoning incumbents. A more likely scenario is the opposite, that new AI tools reinforce the competitive position of established software vendors. Incumbents also hold decades of proprietary, structured, client specific data. This could materially improve AI model performance and suggests that partnerships between software vendors and AI agent developers such as Anthropic is a likely out-turn. Far from being disrupted, many Software companies could actually become strategic partners in the development of next‑generation AI tools and systems.

As with any period of rapid technological change, there will be winners and losers. Vendors offering more client-centric or commoditised applications with low switching barriers may potentially face challenges. Pricing structures will likely evolve and we may see linkages to cost savings or productivity introduced alongside more traditional licence based models may evolve too. Change is inevitable from the introduction of AI into almost every business over the next few years, but it is too early to assume AI is sounding the death-knell of large parts of the software sector, or as we have also seen recently, the wealth management sector.

M&G, Bloomberg Indices (Ref. LUACTRUU, I00394US, I40257US) as at 13 February 2026

For credit investors, the more important question is whether the equity‑led repricing signals underlying stresses in cashflows, leverage or financing risk. On this point, the picture remains reassuring. Credit spreads have widened and valuations have compressed, especially among lenders to private software companies where sentiment is fragile, but the underlying credit characteristics of most public issuers remain solid. Software revenues are sticky, renewal rates remain high, and long‑term contracts continue to anchor client relationships. What the sector is experiencing reflects sentiment rather than a permanent change in credit fundamentals.

Markets seems likely to continue trying to anticipate winners and losers across the sector, with software currently at the centre of concern. Current market price action feels overdone and without evidence to the contrary should correct. AI will embed itself into many (possibly most?) industries in the next few years, and market participants will have to inevitably become more pragmatic and discerning as to the likely winners and losers based on evidence rather than over-hyped expectation. Our view remains that AI will enhance rather than replace incumbent software, strengthening rather than weakening the sector’s long‑term foundations.

The narrative that “AI will eat software” has run far ahead of reality. Agentic AI tools marks an important evolution, but it does not constitute an existential threat to the core of the enterprise software industry. For bond investors, this sentiment‑driven repricing may create pockets of value in fundamentally strong issuers whose long‑term strategic positioning remains intact. The foundational advantages enjoyed by enterprise software providers should prove far more durable than current market pricing suggests.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 09:25

Q4 GDP Unexpectedly Grows At 1.4%, Half Expected Pace, As Government Shutdown Slams Growth

There was a big surprise at 8:30am ET when the BEA reported the (delayed) GDP print for the last quarter of 2025: With consensus expecting a 2.8% print  (and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model even higher) which would already be a big drop from the 4.4% in Q3, the BEA instead reported that the US economy grew at just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, the slowest growth since the tariff shock of Q1 2025.

According to the BEA, the contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. 

Overall, the economy expanded 2.2% last year, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed.

Specifically, the Q4 breakdown was as follows:

• Personal consumption slowed notably, from 2.34% of the bottom line GDP to just 1.58% or more than 100% of the final 1.42% GDP print
• Fixed Investment contributed to 0.45% of bottom line GDP, up from 0.15% in Q3
• Change in private inventories added 0.21%, up from a decline of -0.12% in Q3
• Net exports (exports less imports) continued to normalize and in Q4 added just 0.08% to the GDP number, down dramatically from 1.62% in Q3
• Last and definitely worse, government was actually a major drawdown, reducing the Q4 GDP by 0.9%, a sharp reversal from the 0.38% addition in Q3.

And visually:

Of the above, the most notable variable was government spending, which due to the government shutdown in Q4 tumbled by 5.1% - the biggest drop since covid - and subtracted 0.9% from the final GDP number.

Knowing in advance how bad the number would be due to the shutdown, less than an hour before the data were released, Trump posted on social media that the shutdown would cost the US “at least two points in GDP.”

That may be an exageration, but it is modest: if one takes the average growth in recent quarters due to government which is about 0.5-0.6% and subtracts the 0.9% hit in Q4, the actual swing is about 1.5%. 

Of course, this is just a delayed reversal, and expect to see Q1 GDP offset by this much if not more, meaning Q1 GDP will likely print around 4%.

Government slowdown aside, perhaps an even more notable print is the continued explosion in spending on computers/peripheral equipment courtesy of AI, which has surged 70% in the past year and has more than doubled to $300BN at the end of 2025, more than double since the launch of chatGPT in 2022. 

Despite the year-end slowdown, the data capped a solid year for the US economy, which shrank in the first quarter amid a monumental pre-tariff surge in imports, only to round out 2025 with one of the strongest growth rates in years. The turnaround came after Trump backed off of his most punitive levies and the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, helping drive the stock market to record highs and enabling wealthier Americans to keep spending.

Separate monthly data out Friday showed the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — the core PCE index — rose 0.4% in December, the most in nearly a year. On an annual basis, the core PCE, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3%, compared to 2.8% at the start of 2025. All of these prints were hot...

... suggesting that all else equal, the US is once again flirting with stagflation, although as has so often been the case, the Q4 GDP print is an outlier, as is the December PCE, the first impacted by the government shutdown the second heated up by higher commodity prices which will reverse as soon as the geopolitical circus involving Iran quiets down. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 09:17

FBI Director Kash Patel Says Bureau Uncovered Antifa Funding Sources

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

FBI Director Kash Patel said on Feb. 18 that the law enforcement agency uncovered what he said are funding sources tied to antifa organizations, suggesting that more enforcement actions could come against the left-wing movement.

FBI Director Kash Patel speaks during a news conference at the Department of Justice in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. Daniel Heuer/AFP via Getty Images

“Whether it’s antifa or any other violent criminal organization—we know their operations don’t exist alone; they operate with heavy funding streams,” he wrote in a post on X, along with a clip from an interview with former deputy director Dan Bongino, on his show.

Patel said that the FBI is “finding them and those who fund their criminal activity.”

The FBI chief did not provide more information about the organizations, the source of the funding, or specific donors who may be involved. However, he said the FBI is looking into any financial backers linked to violence committed by alleged antifa operators.

Agents are looking at whether funding was sent through U.S.-based nonprofit groups and whether any of those nonprofits had tax-exempt status. They are also evaluating potential foreign funding streams, he said.

“Money doesn’t lie,” Patel told Bongino in the interview, saying that the FBI is right now “following the money” and that the law enforcement agency is “starting to arrest people who used their funds to incite violence in the guise of political peaceful protest.”

Last year, Patel told The Epoch Times’s Jan Jekielek in an interview that the FBI is mapping out the entire antifa network and indicated that funding streams are being traced, coming months after the Trump administration designated antifa as a domestic terrorist group.

The executive order, issued by President Donald Trump on Sept. 22, called antifa a “militarist, anarchist enterprise that explicitly calls for the overthrow of the United States Government, law enforcement authorities, and our system of law.” The administration also designated foreign antifa groups as foreign terrorist organizations in November 2025.

The State Department, in its designation, stated that “groups affiliated with this movement ascribe to revolutionary anarchist or Marxist ideologies, including anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Christianity, using these to incite and justify violent assaults domestically and overseas.”

In his first term, Trump signaled that he would designate antifa a terrorist group in the midst of anti-police riots, violence, and demonstrations in the summer of 2020. At one point during the 2020 unrest, Trump warned that he would invoke the Insurrection Act that was last used during the Los Angeles riots in 1992, and he again suggested invoking the law as National Guard deployments were sent to multiple cities last year.

Patel on Feb. 18 also dismissed longstanding claims that antifa is only an ideological framework and said that dozens of people in Texas have been arrested in connection with the left-wing organization.

Federal officials in October 2025 targeted antifa and filed terrorism charges against five people in Texas, citing the order issued by Trump. In November 2025, the five defendants pleaded guilty in response to charges that they were accused of supporting antifa in a July shooting that wounded a police officer outside a Texas immigration detention center.

Patel previously said the charges in Texas are the first time a material support to terrorism charge has targeted antifa.

Bongino, who was the FBI deputy director before leaving the government in January, returned to hosting his podcast this month.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:55

Savings Rate Tumbles To 4 Year Lows As Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Comes In Hot

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - rose 0.4% in December (the latest data released today), slightly hotter than expected (+0.3% MoM). That lifted YoY inflation up 3.0% (above the prior month and hotter than expected) - the highest since April 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline PCE rose 0.4% MoM (more than expected too) driving prices up 2.9% YoY (the highest since March 2024)

Source: Bloomberg

The much watched SuperCore PCE rose 0.3% MoM (the last MoM decline was April 2020). But the SuperCore PCE YoY printed +3.3% - very much unmoved in the last year...

Services prices continue to dominate the price gains but Goods costs also accelerated in December...

Many were fearful of the recent surge in oil prices impacting inflation, but as the chart below shows, the government's measure of energy costs has recently (oddly) decoupled from actual energy costs...

Higher prices were accompanied by higher incomes and higher spending...

But Spending continues to outpace incomes (even though the former is decelerating)...

Wage growth is slowing, especially for government workers...

But, putting it altogether, the savings rate is tumbling to afford all this...

We look forward to President Trump explaining how affordability is 'fixed' next week at the SOTU.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:47

ECB Quietly Prepares Global Liquidity Backstop As Euro Debt Wave Builds

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Starting in the third quarter of 2026, new rules will apply to the so-called euro repo facility. Central banks worldwide will be able to post up to €50 billion in euro-denominated collateral, such as government bonds, with the ECB in order to obtain euro liquidity from the central bank in cases of acute need. The goal is to guarantee the permanent availability of euro liquidity, replacing the previously time-limited repo lines.

Central banks typically resort to this monetary policy instrument during phases of acute liquidity stress — most recently during the COVID lockdowns. The repo facility counts among the central banks’ immediate crisis tools. The so-called EUREP (Eurosystem Repo Facility for Central Banks) was launched on June 25, 2020, as a short-term liquidity solution for associated central banks: the Central Bank of Kosovo drew €100 million, Montenegro €250 million in short-term liquidity assistance.

Repo auctions generally involve the exchange and short-term pledging of European government bonds for maturities of one to five days, which commercial banks deposit at the central bank in return for liquidity. The collateral is returned after a short period, and the so-called bank reserves are withdrawn again once the liquidity problem has been resolved and the interbank market is functioning properly.

The ECB’s announcement that it will now offer this instrument globally — and over periods of several weeks or even months — raises eyebrows. It suggests that the monetary guardians of the Eurosystem may be anticipating a liquidity crisis in the not-too-distant future.

Euro as a Reserve Currency

The drastic expansion of sovereign debt within the eurozone system may explain why concerns are deepening at the ECB tower. If the two pillars, Germany and France, are each calculating net new borrowing of five percent this year alone — thereby placing a steadily growing volume of bonds on the markets — this generates palpable upward pressure on interest rates. At the same time, investors are asking how strongly the creditworthiness of individual euro states ultimately depends on Germany’s ability to service the mounting debt — a pressure that is manifesting itself in markets.

Interest rates have already been rising for more than three years, particularly at the long end of the bond market. This suggests that confidence among large investors, who traditionally provide the bulk of liquidity in this market, is gradually eroding. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure internationally: euro-denominated reserves currently account for less than 20 percent of global bank reserves and show a slight downward trend. Similar developments can be observed in the settlement of international transactions, where the euro holds roughly a 24 percent share.

The dominant global actor remains the U.S. dollar, both as a reserve currency with a 59 percent share and in the settlement of international transactions at 47 percent. Against this backdrop, it becomes clear that Europe’s monetary authorities are facing an increasingly challenging combination of rising debt, growing interest rates, and a global environment that does not accord the euro the status of the U.S. dollar — factors that pose serious questions for the Eurosystem’s stability and liquidity.

A severe blow to the euro’s international role was the European Union decision to permanently implement the Russia embargo and halt trade in Russian oil and gas. Russia had been among the few major energy market players willing to allow euro denomination and thus held substantial reserves. That era is over.

However, rumors are circulating that the United States, in the event of a peace settlement in Ukraine, could restore Russia’s access to the SWIFT system. Would the EU then follow suit? A return to the status quo ante might require a different political regime in Brussels and Berlin.

Growing Debt Volume

A fiscal policy U-turn within the EU is also under discussion. Should member states agree on a “two-speed Europe” and implement joint financing of new debt via so-called Eurobonds, this would place the European bond market on an entirely new footing in terms of both volume and structure.

European taxpayers — above all the still relatively less indebted Germans at the federal level — would then stand behind the credit guarantees. In Frankfurt, such a revolutionary step is expected to deliver a massive boost in global demand for euro-denominated bonds.

One unknown in the geopolitical power struggle remains the Federal Reserve. On several occasions last year, the ECB warned of a possible shortage of U.S. dollars within the European banking system. The United States holds a powerful lever here: it can drive up the political price of bridging potential illiquidity through rapid swap lines — short-term loans within the dollar system to European banks and the ECB.

Oversupply of Euro Bonds

The Eurosystem thus faces immense absorption problems. If global demand for EU debt — that is, euro bonds — cannot be generated, interest rates will continue to rise. In light of the massive issuance wave of new euro sovereign bonds, the ECB would be forced to take this debt onto its own balance sheet to keep debt servicing in member states under control.

The expansion of the repo facility into a permanent liquidity backstop therefore appears plausible. Global central banks would have an incentive to accumulate a growing share of euro bonds. Moreover, the volume would be available to gain direct access to the Eurosystem without assembling a portfolio of bonds from individual states. Germany’s relatively low debt level had in fact recently been a problem, as insufficient tranches of German federal bonds were available for larger capital allocations. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his finance minister are currently eliminating this issue with their present debt policy.

The ECB’s measures thus fit into a broader fiscal policy development that could culminate in a structural expansion of joint debt. By institutionally safeguarding international demand for euro bonds, the central bank is creating the infrastructural preconditions for a potential new debt regime within the European Union — while simultaneously shifting the boundary between monetary stabilization and fiscal support of state budgets.

The European repo facility, once conceived as a rescue umbrella for liquidity problems, is gradually evolving into a classic, expanding debt pool. With eurozone government debt likely to rise from the current 92 percent of GDP to around 100 percent over the next two years, pressure on the ECB to devise mechanisms for distributing this flood of debt across global bond markets will intensify.

Whether this succeeds appears highly doubtful given the euro economy’s chronic economic weakness.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:30

Futures Drop As Iran Tensions Rise, Data Deluge Looms

US equity futures are lower, sliding from session highs around the European open to session low just before 8am E as traders assessed the potential market impact of war with Iran, and awaited a firehose of US economic data including GDP and core PCE. As of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% having traded in the green for much of the overnight session. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly red with GOOGL bucking the trend and rising +1.2%. Blue Owl Capital’s shares were set to fall a further 3.5% after its decision to limit withdrawals from a private credit fund. Bond yields have also reversed and are now lower on the session while the USD is flat. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lower while precious metals are rallying, sending gold above $5000 again; Brent crude fell toward $71 a barrel, paring gains since Monday to about 5%.  Overnight, a WSJ article rehashed the now familiar story that Trump considers an initial limited strike to force negotiation. Today, key macro focus will be PCE, Flash PMIs and SCOTUS opinion day (markets are waiting for possible decision on IEEPA tariffs).

In premarket trading, magnificent Seven stocks are mixed early Friday (Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.2%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.1%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.02%, Meta (META) -0.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.1%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%)

• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) falls 11% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is weaker than expected for both the first quarter and the full year.
• Ardelyx (ARDX) drops 6% after the drugmaker gave sales forecast for its Ibsrela drug in the first quarter that Jefferies views as softer than expected
• Copart (CPRT) falls 8% after the online vehicle salvage auction company reported operating income for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Floor & Decor (FND) climbs 4% after the flooring and tile retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Grail (GRAL) tumbles 47% after the early cancer detection test maker said Galleri, its multi-cancer screener, failed to meet its primary endpoint of statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and IV cancer.
• Harmonic (HLIT) rises 9% after the communications equipment’s book-to-bill is seen as strong and reinforcing its growth potential.
• Hudbay Minerals (HBM) declines almost 5% after the miner reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate as production fell year-over-year.
• Newmont (NEM) drops 4% after the world’s biggest gold miner said it expects to produce less bullion this year, due to planned upgrades at some of its managed mines and lower output at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining.
• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) climbs 19% as the online marketplace for residential real estate reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• RingCentral (RNG) rises 10% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics and it gave a positive forecast for both the first quarter and the full year.
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) rises 4% after the restaurant chain said it expects positive comparable restaurant sales growth for the year as it plans to implement a menu price increase in early April.
• Workiva Inc. (WK) gains 12% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave revenue forecasts for both the first quarter and the full year that are seen as positive.

Friday morning brings long-delayed readings of core personal consumption expenditure — a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs. The data may prove important not only in deciphering the next move in interest rates, but also the outlook for the great rotation trade out of tech names into materials, energy and other cyclicals linked to a stronger economy. Bloomberg Economics expects core inflation to have accelerated into the year end. Prices of services including recreation, accommodation and video streaming are likely to have contributed to a month-on-month increase of 0.32% in the core PCE deflator for December and a tick-up in the annual rate to 2.9% from 2.8%. 

Wider inflation is set to be stoked by oil near a six-month high as Trump oversees the biggest US military buildup in the Middle East since 2003 and warns Iran that it has 10 to 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program — or else.

Speaking of "or else", the US military is deploying a vast array of forces in the Middle East as President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Tehran to strike a deal over its nuclear program. While the move in oil seeped into risk assets, traders note that recent geopolitical flare-ups have had only a limited impact on markets.

“Geopolitical stories are really notoriously difficult to price,” Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “Right now it’s almost impossible to assign probabilities to any outcome, given how quickly those narratives change.”

Elsewhere, as Trump looks to soothe concerns among rich and poor alike ahead of the midterms, he declared victory in the fight over cost-of-living concerns. It signals a new approach from the president that denies problems with his economic agenda while touting stock market gains to insist that his tariff plans have been a success. The White House is ratcheting up pressure on Congress to enact Trump’s proposed ban on investors buying homes, laying out for the first time what sort of investment firms he plans to target, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Turning to earnings, Of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, more than 74% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while nearly 21% have missed. No major companies are due to report today, but the earnings season picks up pace again next week, with companies representing a further 13% of the S&P’s market value on deck. 

European stocks rebound after a halt to their rally in the prior session. Stoxx 600 up by 0.5%, with consumer, construction and chemicals outperforming. Moncler leads luxury stocks to outperform, while the energy and utilities sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: 

• Moncler shares gain as much as 13%, the most since September 2024, after the maker of high-end puffer jackets reported results that Barclays said were significantly ahead of estimates.
• Air Liquide shares rise as much as 3.9%, trading at a three-month high, after the French industrial-gas producer posted second-half earnings that beat expectations and raised its dividend more than anticipated, according to a Jefferies analyst.
• Kingspan shares climb as much as 9.4%, touching their highest level since 2024, after the construction firm generated record revenue and said the part of its business that builds infrastructure for data centers has an “extraordinary pipeline.”
• Unipol shares rise as much as 6.6%, their biggest gain in over 10 months, after the Italian insurer topped expectations in the latest quarter, with Barclays noting a higher dividend, stronger capital returns and better margins.
• Dis-Chem shares rally as much as 4.6% in Johannesburg, touching its highest intraday level in over a year, after the pharmacy stores chain reported a loyalty program-driven increase in revenue.
• ALK-Abello shares rise as much as 4.7%, hitting their highest level in over a month, after the pharmaceutical company with a focus on allergies said it will pay its first dividend since 2017 and topped expectations in the final quarter, according to analysts at Jefferies.
• Siegfried shares fall as much as 6.7%, the most since August, after weaker-than-expected 2026 guidance from the the Swiss pharma firm.
• Umicore shares decline as much as 7.1% in Brussels, hitting its lowest intraday level since December after the specialty chemicals company reported net income for 2H 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Danone shares drop 2.1% after a like-for-like sales beat was offset by a miss in volumes and misses in certain units in China and the US, according to Jefferies.
• Aston Martin shares slip as much as 4.4% after the British carmaker posted another profit warning.
• Chemring shares slide as much as 5.5% after the defense firm said it has made a slower start to the year than anticipated.

Earlier, Asian stocks fell in the last session of a holiday-thinned trading week, as renewed fears of conflict between the US and Iran weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped as much as 0.4%. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags, with investors rotating into smaller tech names in Hong Kong as the market reopened following the Lunar New Year break. Benchmarks fell more than 1% in Japan and New Zealand. Stocks gained in South Korea and India. Investors turned cautious after US President Donald Trump warned that Iran had 10 to 15 days to come up with a deal over its nuclear program. While equities broadly fell, sectors related to energy and defense gained on the escalating tensions. Mainland China and Taiwan markets will reopen next week. Traders will also be focused on monetary policy decisions from South Korea and Thailand, as well as gross domestic product data from Hong Kong and India. Companies due to report results from the region include HSBC and Baidu, while Nvidia headlines overseas earnings.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1% and in a narrow range for the day. Sterling outperforming, yen and the kiwi falling.

In rates, treasuries are little changed.Gilt curve flattening after slew of data, including strong retail sales, a record budget surplus and solid PMIs. Euro-area business activity improved thanks to a boost from German factories. Bund yields edging lower,

In commodities, oil fluctuates with concerns about US-Iran tensions at the forefront. Brent now down for the session and getting closer to $71/barrel, having jumped the day before. Gold prices higher and holding above $5,000/oz.

Today's econ calendar consists of readings of personal income and spending in December are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, alongside core PCE indexes for the same month and 4Q GDP data. They are followed at 9:45 a.m. by S&P Global’s provisional manufacturing, services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes for February. At 10 a.m., readings of new homes sales in December and the University of Michigan’s final index of consumer sentiment in February are due. Fed speaker slate includes Bostic (9:45am), Logan (12:45pm) and Musalem (3:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
• DAX +0.3%, CAC 40 +0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.07%
• VIX -0.1 points at 20.09
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1191.49
• euro -0.1% at $1.1759
• WTI crude -0.6% at $66.06/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump is weighing an initial limited military strike on Iran to force it to meet his demands for a nuclear deal, a first step that would be designed to pressure Tehran into an agreement but fall short of a full-scale attack that could inspire a major retaliation. WSJ 
• Trump said regarding affordability "we've solved it" and will talk about inflation in the State of the Union next week.
• The White House is ratcheting up pressure on Congress to enact President Trump’s proposed ban on investors buying homes, laying out for the first time what sort of investment firms he plans to target. In a memo sent Thursday to House and Senate committee leaders, the White House proposed banning investors with more than 100 single-family homes from purchasing additional homes. WSJ 
• The US is planning a Peace Corps initiative that would send thousands of science and math graduates abroad to boost foreign nations’ reliance on American tech over Chinese alternatives. BBG 
• Oil traded near a six-month high as tensions with Iran intensified, with the US amassing forces in the Middle East in its biggest deployment since 2003. Donald Trump said Iran has no more than two weeks to reach a deal over its nuclear program. BBG 
• Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion of private loans to three of North America’s biggest pension funds and its own insurer to help pay out investors, people familiar said. The move underscores the risks facing retail investors as they move into the fast-expanding private credit market. BBG 
• Nvidia is close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI that will replace the long-term $100 billion commitment agreed last year. FT 
• Japanese PM Takaichi told fellow lawmakers on Friday that a severe lack of domestic investment is holding back the country’s potential growth rate compared to other major advanced economies as she pledged to take “thorough and decisive measures” in the form of government backed, large scale and long term strategic investments. Nikkei 
• Japan’s consumer prices rose at a slower pace in the first month of 2026, giving the central bank more breathing room to consider its next step. Consumer inflation, excluding volatile fresh food prices, climbed 2.0% in January from a year earlier, compared with December’s 2.4% rise, government data showed Friday. WSJ 
• Britain recorded its biggest budget surplus on record in January, augmented by a surge in inflows of capital gains tax and lower debt payments. Separate data showed retail sales surged 1.8%, the fastest growth in 20 months. The pound erased losses. BBG 

Trade/Tariffs

• India's Trade Minister said they expect the US to issue a notice on lowering the import tariff to 18% during February.
• India's Trade Minister said they expect the trade deal with the UK to come into effect by April.
• Indonesian Government said they will get 19% tariffs on most goods, with 0% on coffee, chocolate and rubber in the US trade deal. Deal also will not involve any third country when asked about China trans-shipment concerns.
• Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa said not set the timing on the second set of US investment projects, adds want to make sure PM Takaichi's US trip in March is fruitful.
• White House releases fact sheet on Trump administration finalising the trade deal with Indonesia that will provide Americans with unprecedented market access and unlock major breakthroughs for America’s manufacturing, agriculture, and digital sectors.
• US President Trump accused China of flooding US market with subsidised goods.
• US President Trump said steel tariffs have been a game-changer.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks followed suit to the predominantly negative mood on Wall Street, where risk appetite was subdued amid private credit fund concerns and geopolitical risks related to the US and Iran following Trump's latest threat and 10-15 day ultimatum. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid underperformance in the tech, telecoms and consumer sectors, while participants continued to digest a slew of earnings, although downside was stemmed by resilience in utilities and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 stumbled back beneath the 57,000 level with the index pressured despite recent currency weakness and the softer inflation data, which essentially provides the BoJ with more policy space, while tech and autos were among the industries notably represented in the list of worst-performing stocks. Hang Seng retreated upon returning from the Lunar New Year holidays with the big tech names leading the declines in the index, while mainland markets and the Stock Connect remained shut and won't open until next Tuesday.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi said there is a dearth of domestic investment in Japan and will stop trend of austerity and lack of investment. She pledges to drive a significant investment via multi-year budgets and long-term funding strategies and affirms that essential expenditures will be maximised through the initial budget allocation. Affirms commitment to prudent fiscal policies to maintain market confidence. Aims for swift approval of crucial legislation, including tax reform, by the end of FY26/27. Government will unveil an investment roadmap for 17 strategic sectors beginning next month. Announced acceleration of nuclear reactor restarts.
• Japan PM Takaichi to promote measures to spur private spending and outline plans for increased strategic investment, active but responsible fiscal policy, and more assertive diplomacy in parliamentary address, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) have rebounded from Thursday's selloff, with the FTSE MIB (+1.0%) and CAC 40 (+0.7%) leading gains. The FTSE 100 (+0.7%) is also in the green, supported by strong January retail sales and a PSNB surplus figure, beating estimates by a large margin. European sectors hold a positive bias; Consumer Products and Services (+1.7%) lead the standings, closely followed by Chemicals (+1.4%). On the other hand, the pullback in oil prices is weighing on the Energy sector (-0.6%). Moncler (+11.9%) announced a positive set of FY earnings, comfortably beating revenue and net income estimates. This is lifting other luxury companies such as LVMH (+3.0%) and Kering (+1.2%).

Top European News

• UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Feb) 53.9 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 54.0, Low. 52.8, High. 54.2).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Feb) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.8, Low. 51, High. 52.5).
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Feb) 53.9 vs. Exp. 53.3 (Prev. 53.7, Low. 52.8, High. 53.9).
• UK Retail Sales MoM (Jan) M/M 1.8% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%, Low. -0.6%, High. 1.0%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Jan) M/M 2.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. -0.1%, High. 0.9%).
• UK Retail Sales YoY (Jan) Y/Y 4.5% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 1.9%, Rev. From 2.5%, Low. 2.4%, High. 3.6%).

FX

• DXY is incrementally firmer this morning and trades at the mid-point of a 97.84 to 98.07 range, with the peak of the day matching the WTD’s best; currently holding around its 50 DMA at 97.96. Focus remains firmly on the geopolitical situation between US and Iran. To recap, President Trump said 15 days is the maximum deadline to reach an agreement with Iran, other it will be “unfortunate” for them. Recent reports in the WSJ suggest that Trump is weighing a “limited” strike, to force Iran into a deal. Attention for the time being will be on US data, which includes US GDP and PCE.
• GBP is incrementally firmer/flat. Retail Sales was an exceptionally strong report, with the upside attributed to strong “artwork and antiques sales, alongside continued strong sales from online jewellers”. But other components suggest that the pick-up was also seen in more conventional figures such as household goods store sales, with clothing sales also rising. Elsewhere, the PSNB was in a surplus in January and topped expectations – though the figure is subject to the usual caveats for the period (tax filings). GBP moved higher in an initial reaction, but then pared that move; thereafter, a strong set of PMI metrics took Cable to a session high of 1.3478. Despite the strong metrics, the inner report suggested that “ongoing worrying labour market weakness will likely result in a growing call for further rate cuts”. Market pricing for the BoE meeting was little moved, with the chance of a March cut priced in at 88% whilst April is fully priced.
• JPY slightly weaker this morning, succumbing to the broader USD strength and following the region’s inflation report, which held a dovish skew. In brief, National CPI printed at 1.5% (exp. 1.6%), core was in-line whilst the supercore metric was a touch below the consensus. Elsewhere, PMIs printed better-than-expectations – benefiting from increased optimism following Takaichi’s landslide victory. Following the inflation data, Pantheon Macro wrote that the inflation report “justifies” the BoJ taking time on a rate hike. USD/JPY in a 154.87-155.64 range.
• Other G10s are broadly lower against the USD. Aussie manages to stay afloat, whilst the EUR moves a touch lower. More ECB-related newsflow, this time via the WSJ, which suggested that ECB's Lagarde said her baseline is finishing the ECB term, while she added that she has accomplished a lot but needs to make sure it is solid. On the data front, EZ PMIs continue to confirm the modest recovery picture in the EZ. The strong German report spurred fleeting EUR strength.

Central Banks

• Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said policy is in a good place and labour market is in a better position after 75bps of cuts, adds inflation continues to decline outside goods sector. said:We have more work to do to get inflation down, but don't want to get behind, or over our skis.
• ECB's Lagarde said her baseline is finishing the ECB term, according to WSJ.
• ECB President Lagarde called for cooperation to 'save global order' in award acceptance speech in New York.
• RBNZ Governor Breman noted that although central bank remains forward focus, monetary policy will adapt based on new information instead of following a predetermined path. The path back to 2% inflation has been bumpy, but expects inflation to be within the target range in Q1. Central bank is confident inflation will return to 2% midpoint over the next 12 months. NZD is not too far from fair value right now.

Fixed Income

• USTs are near enough flat in thin 112-29+ to 113-02 parameters. Specifics for the space are somewhat light thus far as we count down to a packed 13:30GMT data docket and await any further insight on US-Iran tensions before potential SCOTUS opinion(s) at 15:00GMT.
• Gilts had two leads to digest at the open. Stronger-than-expected retail sales, though with caveats, were a bearish driver as the data doesn't push BoE's Bailey (or any of the hawks, particularly focused on Mann) towards voting for a cut in March vs April; however, ultimately, the data will have little impact on that discussion. Separately, a larger-than-expected government PSNB surplus in January served as a bullish driver. Gilts came off best levels alongside EGBs into the morning's UK PMIs, a series that printed above consensus across the board. Within the series, S&P's Williamson wrote that "relatively modest price pressures being signalled and ongoing worrying labour market weakness will likely result in a growing call for further rate cuts".
• Bunds spent the morning firmer, with gains of 20 ticks at best, notching a 129.45 peak, strength that seemed to just be a continuation of recent gains. Thereafter, the benchmark fell from best and moved to near-enough unchanged on the session at a 129.28 trough following the morning's PMIs, which were generally strong and particularly so for manufacturing, which unexpectedly returned to expansionary territory for Germany for the first time in over 3.5 years.
• Australia sold AUD 800mln 3.25% April 2029 bonds, b/c 3.89, avg. yield 4.3014%.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are taking a breather, with both WTI and Brent trading subdued, though still near highs for the week, due to the heightening geopolitical tension between the US and Iran. US President Trump yesterday reiterated that Iran has 10-15 days to strike a deal, or else something bad will happen. However, during a report by the WSJ, which stated that Trump is reportedly weighing a limited strike to force Iran into a nuclear deal. WTI and Brent are trading at the lower end of USD 65.86-67.03/bbl and 71.10-72.34/bbl, respectively.
• In the precious metal space, spot gold was aided by the ongoing geopolitical tension, with the yellow metal crossing the USD 5,000/oz mark to the upside overnight. The dollar has waned from its best levels throughout the European session after finding resistance at Thursday's high, thus underpinning gold prices. XAU and XAG are trading at the upper range of USD 4,981.58-5,042.37/oz and USD 77.47-81.20/oz, respectively.
• Copper prices are also firmer, tracking broader risk sentiment in the European session. Otherwise, a fresh macro catalyst has been lacking for the red metal, especially with the Chinese market on holiday. 3M LME copper trades at the upper range of USD 12.781-12.895k/t.
• Iranian Oil Minister said cooperation with the US on oil is possible.
• Hungarian government to release 250k tonnes of crude oil from its strategic reserves after Druzhba oil flow stopped.
• US ambassador to India said active negotiations are underway with India's Energy Ministry on the import of Venezuelan oil.
• Goldman Sachs sees significant upside to gold price forecasts on further private sector diversification when expressed through call option structures.
• US President Trump said 50mln bbls of Venezuelan oil are on the way to Houston and US-Venezuela energy cooperation is going well.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin reiterates that there's no confirmed date set for a new round of talks with Ukraine.
• Ukraine's President Zelensky said he's ready to discuss with the US about compromises.
• Next round of Russia-Ukraine talks is reportedly possible next week, via TASS.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump reportedly weighs limited strike to force Iran into nuclear deal, according to WSJ; President considers a range of military options but said he still prefers diplomacy. Trump is considering an initial limited military strike on Iran to force it to meet his demands for a nuclear deal, in an attempt to pressure Tehran into an agreement but fall short of a full-scale attack that could see a major retaliation. Sources add, the opening fire, which if authorized, could come within days, would target a few military or government sites. If Iran still refused to comply with Trump’s directive to end its nuclear enrichment, the US would respond with a broad campaign against regime facilities.
• Semafor, on US President Trump reviewing his options regarding Iran, writes "He hasn’t made a decision yet, though people close to the president see an attack as growing more likely by the day."
• Iran said in letter to UN Secretary General and members of the Security Council that if they are attacked, all bases, facilities and assets of hostile force in the region will constitute legitimate targets within the framework of Iran's defensive response.
• Palestinian media reported Israeli warplanes launched a raid on the Al Tufar neighbourhood in Gaza City, according to Sky News Arabia.

Geopolitics: Others

• Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov discusses Iranian nuclear program with Iranian counterpart, TASS reported.
• China is monitoring US military aircraft movements over Yellow Sea, according to Global Times.
• NORAD said it detected and tracked two Tu-95s and two Su-35s and one A-50 operating Alaskan ADIZ on February 19th, while it launched several aircraft to intercept and positively identify, and escort the aircraft until they departed the Alaskan ADIZ.
• New Zealand provides a Russia sanctions update which includes a designation of 23 individuals, 13 entities, and 100 vessels, while it lowered the oil price cap on Russian oil from USD 47.60/bbl to USD 44.10/bbl.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Dec Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.77%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Dec Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.79%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.8%, prior 4.4%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A Personal Consumption, est. 2.42%, prior 3.5%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A GDP Price Index, est. 2.8%, prior 3.8%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.6%, prior 2.9%
• 9:45 am: United States Feb P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.35, prior 52.4
• 9:45 am: United States Feb P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53, prior 52.7
• 9:45 am: United States Feb P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.1, prior 53
• 9:45 am: United States Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Conversation
• 10:00 am: United States Dec New Home Sales, est. 730k
• 10:00 am: United States Feb F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 57.25, prior 57.3
• 12:45 pm: United States Fed’s Logan Speaks at Bank Regulation Conference
• 3:30 pm: United States Fed’s Musalem Appears on Fox Business

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I'm supposed to be on hols today playing golf off the junior tees, for the first time since early October, with three-quarter power swings accompanying my twins on the last day of half-term. However, as it's a holiday week I'm heroically holding the fort until this has been sent out. It's now just over 4 months since back fusion surgery and I'm starting to return to light golf. Sadly the nerve symptoms in the leg are no different but I'm told it could take a year to tell if the surgery has made a difference and the nerve repairs itself. I've done my rehab every day for well over 2 months now so this reflects my obsession with golf more than anything else. My wife shakes her head as I twist myself into all sorts of shapes most evenings in front of the TV.

As I leave to do my two hour warm-up to limber up muscles I haven't used for 4 months, markets on both sides of the Atlantic reversed their gains yesterday as geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US took center stage. The S&P 500 (-0.28%) and STOXX 600 (-0.53%) both fell, while the price of Brent crude registered its largest two-day jump since October 2025, back when the US announced sanctions against Russia’s two largest oil companies. It was up +2.20% yesterday to its highest level since July and this morning is +0.49% at $72.01/bbl, having traded as low as $66.85 just before Europe closed on Tuesday.

The latest developments saw President Trump seemingly issue an ultimatum to Iran, suggesting that 10 to 15 days was the maximum he would allow for talks to continue and that Iran must make a “meaningful deal” or else “bad things would happen”. Those comments came as the US has deployed aircraft and naval ships to the Middle East ahead of a possible strike on Iran. Later in the day, the Wall Street Journal reported that while President Trump had not yet decided on military action, he could authorise a limited strike within days, and this would then be followed by a broader US campaign against the regime if Iran failed to comply.

So that led to a sell-off in markets, with 60% of the S&P 500 down on the day, as investors pulled back over fears of geopolitical conflict. The Nasdaq (-0.31%) and Magnificent 7 (-0.21%) also declined. Bonds were caught between the inflationary consequences and the risk-off mood, with 2yr (-0.3bps) and 10yr (-1.6bps) Treasury yields moving slightly lower. Against this risk-off backdrop, gold (+0.37%) poked back up above $5k before closing at $4,999/oz while silver (+1.69%) also outperformed. The VIX volatility index (+0.61pts) crept back above 20 to close at 20.23. This morning, US and European equity futures are back up a couple of tenths and Gold and 10yr USTs are largely unchanged.

Adding to the cautious mood in markets were a couple of stories that rekindled lingering concerns over the US economy. One was a resurfacing of private credit worries that we saw last autumn, after Blue Owl Capital announced it wouldn’t re-open withdrawals from one of its retail-focused private credit funds. The company’s shares tumbled -5.93% after the news, also weighing on other listed private equity companies, such as Blackstone (-5.37%), Apollo (-5.21%) and KKR (-1.89%). Another was a cautious outlook from Walmart (-1.38%) as its full-year earnings forecast missed expectations, with the company’s CFO saying “it’s prudent to be somewhat measured with the outlook right now” amid the uneven US economy.

The ongoing worries over Iran meant that less attention was given to a handful of notable US data releases that trickled in. Initial jobless claims were better than expected in the week ending February 14, declining from 227k to only 206k (vs 225k expected). That meant claims more than reversed their spike two weeks earlier, which may have been affected by the extreme winter weather across the US. The release also corresponds to the survey week for payrolls so an encouraging sign for that print in a couple of weeks’ time. There was less comforting data released later in the day that showed January pending home sales at -0.8% vs +2.0% m/m expected (-1.2% vs +2.3% expected y/y).
Meanwhile, US goods trade data showed a larger-than-expected deficit for December (-$98.5bn vs -$86.0bn expected), as imports rose +3.6% m/m, while exports fell -1.7% m/m. This puts the latest monthly deficit largely in line with levels of around $100bn seen in the final few months before President Trump’s election in late 2024, after what had been a very volatile 2025 as initial import front-running was followed by a sharp fall after Liberation Day. However, while the aggregate trade position of the US has not changed much, we’ve seen some big redirection of trade. Notably, the latest data highlights the extent that US-China decoupling, with China now accounting for only 7% of US imports, down from 13% in 2024 and above 20% prior to President Trump’s first China tariffs in 2018.

Looking ahead to today, attention will focus on December core PCE and Q4 US GDP. For the former, DB is at +0.4% vs. +0.2% in November, with consensus a tenth lower. Although core CPI was better than expected last week, the read-through for January core PCE wasn't quite so benign. Our economists expect Q4 real GDP growth to slow to +2.5% annualized (+2.8% consensus), a step down after Q3’s +4.4% pace. A sizable portion of that deceleration—roughly 70bps—reflects the drag from the record long shutdown.

Back in Europe, equities reversed course amidst fears of a US attack on Iran, with a few countries potentially taking a stance or action. For instance, the Times reported yesterday that the UK has blocked the Trump administration from using its joint bases for strikes on Iran, whilst Poland’s Prime Minister urged its citizens in the country to leave Iran, saying that the possibility of a conflict is “very real”, according to Politico. Against this backdrop, the STOXX 600 (-0.53%), CAC 40 (-0.36%), DAX (-0.93%), and FTSE 100 (-0.55%) all fell. Industrials were amongst the worst hit, largely due to a steep fall in Airbus (-6.75%) shares after the company missed expectations in its forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in 2026. In fixed income, yields on 10yr bunds (+0.4bps), OAT (+0.4bps), and BTP (+0.4bps) all moved marginally higher.

In Asia, Mainland China is still closed for the holidays but the Hang Seng (-0.60%) has reopened for the first time this week. The Nikkei (-1.17%) is following the global risk off move from yesterday but the Kospi is continuing its tag as one of the best markets in 2026 with a +2.21% increase. It's now up over +37% in the 7 weeks of 2026 so far.

Overnight we have also received Japan’s CPI for January, which came in a touch below consensus for the headline (+1.5% vs +1.6% est) and core-core (+2.6% vs +2.7%) measures, although the latter still comfortably sits above 2%. Core CPI came in as expected (+2.0% y/y). The easing in core measures over the last few months will validate the BoJ and PM Takaichi’s views from last year that a good portion of the early 2025 price pressures was temporary, with the question now being where those underlying price pressures will settle, especially with a stimulus package from the incoming new administration high on the agenda. Separately, Japan Feb PMIs rose, most notably in manufacturing (52.8 vs 51.5 prior). So that was an encouraging sign, given capital investment is a big priority of Takaichi’s.

To the day ahead now, we’ll get the US, UK, Germany, France and the Eurozone February PMIs, US December PCE, personal income, personal spending, Q4 GDP, December new home sales, UK January public finances, retail sales, Germany January PPI, Eurozone Q4 negotiated wages, Canada December retail sales, January industrial product price index, raw materials price index, Denmark Q4 GDP. Central bank events include Fed’s Logan and Bostic speak.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:29

EssilorLuxottica Logs Worst Week In Nearly Four Years As Apple Eyes AI Smart Glasses

Shares of EssilorLuxottica SA are on track for their worst weekly decline in nearly four years, as competition in the smart-glasses market intensified this week following reports that Apple plans to launch AI-powered smart glasses in 2027.

EssilorLuxottica manufactures the smart glasses that Meta sells under the Ray-Ban partnership. These glasses are in the sub-$500 category, which proves that affordability wins. Meta nailed that sweet spot in pricing, while Tim Cook's $3,500 Vision Pro has been an epic bust and failed to achieve mass adoption.

It's not just Apple. Citigroup analyst Veronika Dubajova noted this week that her team "expects a number of competitive launches in the smart eyewear market over the next 12 to 24 months."

Bloomberg-tracked Wall Street analyst ratings show no meaningful wave of downgrades following this week's Apple news, with roughly 93% of covering analysts maintaining a "Buy" recommendation.

Stifel analyst Cedric Rossi said that the entry of Apple and Google into the smart-glasses market represents more of a catalyst than a threat. "Their presence should accelerate consumer awareness and expand the total addressable market," he told clients earlier this week, adding that EssilorLuxottica "retains several key competitive advantages."

Shares of EssilorLuxottica in Paris are down about 10% this week, marking their largest weekly decline since the first week of March 2022.

From the 2025 peak, shares are down 26%.

Goldman analyst Jerry Shen recently published a detailed view of the AI and AR glasses supply chain, breaking it down by the companies that supply the critical components behind these devices (see report).

Tim Cook blew it with Vision Pro ... Meta takes the win.

Apple has to focus on affordability ...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:20

Europe's Civilizational War Will Be Bloody

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

It seems as if every month a new story comes out of Britain warning about the likelihood of future civil war.  Retired colonel Richard Kemp recently gave a television interview during which he warned that the “Islamification” of the United Kingdom would lead to “inevitable conflict.”  

Several British academics specializing in the preconditions for civil conflict, including professors David Betz and Michael Rainsborough, have argued the same point.

Kemp’s point of view carries the added weight of someone who has witnessed insurgent fighting firsthand.  A former commander who carried out counter-insurgency operations in Northern Ireland, led British forces in Afghanistan, and held intelligence roles in Westminster, Kemp says Islamic immigrants’ refusal to integrate into British society means that things in the U.K. are “getting bad” and about to “get worse.”  Among other provocative comments that will no doubt ruffle the feathers of Britain’s “ruling class,” Kemp notes, “There were more British Muslims with the Taliban than in the British Army.”

The combat veteran argues that Britain’s political class has failed citizens by putting them in harm’s way and is simultaneously incapable of mitigating its failures due to suffocating concerns for what can be said out loud.  “No government,” Kemp argues, “has the guts to stop…the Islamification of the U.K.”  Consequently, ordinary Brits now need to prepare for the likelihood of “civil war in Europe.”  Describing the looming conflict in the U.K. as a far more serious and deadly situation than what gripped Northern Ireland for decades, Kemp predicts that the coming civil war will involve “indigenous British and some of the immigrant population and the British government all on three different sides fighting against each other.”

Drawing on his experience with insurgent forces, the retired colonel blames disenfranchisement in Britain for the future violence: “The big problem that British people have is they don’t have political choice.  We don’t really live in a democracy….Whatever party you vote for, you get the same policies.  That applies also to immigration and to the way in which the Islamic population is allowed to grow in numbers and dominance.”  As academics Betz and Rainsborough have also argued, Kemp sees the unwillingness of the U.K.’s political class to respect the will of voters with regards to immigration, Brexit, and the preservation of traditional culture as the proximate cause of the civil war to come.

Democratic institutions provide citizen-voters with a “release valve” through which they can express pent-up frustration without resorting to violence.  The problem is that a political “uniparty” operates in the U.K., as it does throughout most of the West.  It doesn’t matter whether Brits hand power to a Labour or Tory prime minister; they get non-stop Islamic immigration regardless.  When native Brits publicly protest the “Islamification” of the U.K., both Labour and Tory members of parliament call them “racist” and prosecute them for “hate.”  When native Brits march through downtown cities to condemn Islamic rape gangs and Islamic terrorism, both Labour and Tory members of parliament call them “racist” and prosecute them for “hate.”  When native Brits rally to prevent the construction of super-mosques in rural parts of Britain, both Labour and Tory members of parliament call them “racist” and prosecute them for “hate.”  Therefore, citizens in the U.K. have learned that voting accomplishes nothing and that their so-called political “leaders” are incapable of defending British lives or British ways of life.

The British pot is boiling, and Kemp adds his voice to a growing chorus of professionals with expertise in violent civil conflicts who predict a war-ravaged kingdom in the near future. 

 “I think the people will feel they have no option than to take action into their own hand rather than rely on political leaders who are doing nothing,” Kemp stated in another interview.  “I think there is every likelihood” of  “civil war in the U.K. in the coming years.”

What Kemp describes in the U.K. is occurring all over Europe.  While members of the continent’s “elite” political ruling class have spent the last several decades obsessing about the weather and how to make the world “green,” technological innovation, entrepreneurial spirit, and industrial self-sufficiency have diminished.  Although most nations of Europe have replaced historic monarchies with forms of representative democracy, a class of aristocratic nobles has managed to insinuate itself into the powerful positions of “representative” government.  Perhaps because of this feudal mentality, European politicos cannot resist the appeal of centralized, top-down, government-controlled economies.  While “elites” micro-manage European industry and commerce and choose “winners” and “losers” as lords do vassals, free markets malfunction.  The end result is that Europeans get poorer, have fewer babies, and perpetuate a century of decline.

Europe’s aristocratic ruling class has responded to this demographic decline by inviting third-world migrants from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East to become citizens of Europe.  Rather than successfully addressing the continent’s generational crisis by replacing local babies with foreign ones, European “elites” have engineered a certain “clash” between Western and Islamic civilizations.  In the U.K. alone, ten major cities — including Birmingham, Bradford, Manchester, and parts of London — are on their way to having majority-Muslim populations over the next decade or two.  These are historically blue-collar areas where native Brits have gotten only poorer as foreign nationals take over neighborhoods that locals once called home.  Mosques are rising everywhere.  Islamic groceries, restaurants, festivals, and religious celebrations replace the food and customs of local families whose presence goes back centuries.  There is no social integration of any kind.

As economic conditions continue to decline and cultural flashpoints become more frequent, globalist politicians who praise “multiculturalism” as if it were a virtue and repeat, “Diversity is our strength,” as if it were a divine truth are about to discover how dangerous it is to mix many incompatible cultures together.  Like a carbonated beverage shaken without any concern for the mess, the cultural pressure within these Islamified European cities is ready to explode.

As retired colonel Richard Kemp argues, this cultural explosion will be much worse because Europe’s political “ruling class” has prevented voters from making course corrections that are popular with the public but unpopular with European “elites.”  In France, the Netherlands, Germany, Romania, and elsewhere, ruling “elites” use institutional gamesmanship to block “populist” political parties from coming to (or exercising) power.  Anti-immigration political candidates are prosecuted for “hate crimes,” “Russian collusion,” or other made-up crimes.  Unelected aristocrats on the European Council secretly fund pro-immigration candidates in national elections and censor European citizens who express outrage on social media platforms over mass migration from foreign cultures.  In national parliaments and the European Union, members continue to pass laws that effectively criminalize public dissent to official government policies.

Europe’s political “ruling class” has angered a growing share of the European public, and rather than address the reasons for the public’s anger, that same “ruling class” has chosen to silence ordinary Europeans and threaten them with prosecution and imprisonment.  

When all of the “release valves” for a civil society have been welded shut, society stops being “civil.”  

Europe’s “elites” have created the conditions for a bloody civil war — because entire civilizations will be warring against each other.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:05