Key takeaways

• The 2025 Census data on earnings, income, and poverty may reflect how the Trump administration’s policy choices were beginning to impact the economic well-being of workers, families, and children last year.
• Last year’s economy was characterized by slowing job growth, rising wage inequality, and growing policy uncertainty. We expect to see little to no improvements in key economic indicators such as lower-end household income and supplemental poverty rates between 2024 and 2025.
• The 2026 story is still unfolding and is likely to be worse, given these factors: decelerating nominal wage growth, higher inflation, and the 2025 budget reconciliation law that will leave more families and children vulnerable to poverty.

Next week, the Census Bureau will release the latest data on earnings, income, and poverty for 2025. This data could show early signs of how the Trump administration’s policy choices impacted the economic well-being of workers, families, and children across the country. The initial strong recovery from the pandemic recession measurably slowed in 2025 as the labor market softened and the policy climate grew more uncertain. To help place the upcoming data release in context, we highlight key trends that have characterized the economic and policy landscape in 2025. Though the economy continued to soften as inflation worsened in 2026 and the safety net grew increasingly more difficult to access as a result of the Republican Budget Reconciliation Law, the data in the Census will only provide specific insights for living standards in 2025.

In summary, we find:

1. 1. The U.S. economy in 2025 grew more slowly than in 2024, adding fewer than half as many jobs—only 764,000 jobs compared with 1.825 million in 2024. The unemployment rate slowly rose over the course of 2025, and the hires rate was depressed, making it harder for young people in particular to break into the labor market. While the prime-age employment-to-population remained relatively resilient to labor market softening, prime-age Black workers experienced large declines in their employment rate.
   2. With more moderate inflation, strong nominal wage growth translated into decent average hourly wage gains between 2024 and 2025, but gains were not shared equally. Lower-end wage growth stalled in 2025, which could have implications for lower-end incomes and poverty rates.
   3. Because the Republican Budget Reconciliation Law is making basic needs programs like SNAP increasingly more difficult for families to access, we don’t expect to see any significant improvements in supplemental poverty between 2024 and 2025. We expect to the see the full impact of the Republican law in the years ahead.
   4. While the release will only provide data for 2025, our examination of the economic and policy landscape for 2026 suggests that a weaker job market, safety net cuts, and high inflation will worsen outcomes.

The labor market recovery softened in 2025

Because the vast majority of people in the United States rely on labor market income for their economic well-being, the labor market data we already have for 2025 should provide some insights into what the Census data may tell us. Overall, job growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has ticked up as employment rates softened, particularly for certain demographic groups.

After the tremendous rebound from the pandemic recession, the labor market cooled somewhat. Payroll employment growth went from 3.3 million in 2023 to 1.8 million in 2024 and then 764,000 in 2025. A slowdown would be expected after such a strong recovery, and the number of jobs needed to keep up with population growth declined with lower net immigration in the wake of Trump’s draconian mass deportation policies. Nearly 100,000 federal jobs (96,000) were lost in the massive DOGE cuts (when comparing annual averages, which obscure more massive downward trends later in the year), and even manufacturing employment faltered in Trump’s first year, falling by 156,000 jobs between 2024 and 2025. If not for job growth in health care and social assistance, overall payroll employment would have fallen outright.

This weakening led to a mild increase in the unemployment rate, from 4.0% to 4.3% between 2024 and 2025. Figure A displays the change in some key labor market indicators for certain demographic groups. While the overall unemployment rate rose modestly, the increase was far greater for young workers, ages 16 to 24. It’s likely that the depressed hires rate has made it harder for young workers to break into the labor market. Older workers experienced much milder increases in their respective unemployment rates.

The share of the population with a job—the employment-to-population ratio fell from 60.1% to 59.7%, a drop of 0.4 percentage points. Prime-age workers—those between 25 and 54 years old—were more resilient to the labor market softening. However, prime-age Black workers experienced a tremendous decline of 1.3 percentage points between 2024 and 2025. This weakness may show up in the income and poverty data released next week. At the same time, prime-age Hispanic workers experienced an increase in their employment-to-population ratio.

Figure A Wage inequality increased in 2025

Employment changes alone have important implications for family and household income, but wages are also an important part of the economic story. Figure B illustrates several key price and wage changes between 2024 and 2025. Though the economy was a bit weaker, the labor market delivered strong nominal wage growth for private-sector workers, measured by the Current Employment Statistics. Nominal average hourly wages increased 4.0% between 2024 and 2025. Inflation moderated—remember this is before the spike in 2026—and therefore, real hourly wages rose a modest 1.5%.

Unfortunately, the gains were not broad based. Unlike the faster wage growth among lower-wage workers through 2024, lower-end wage growth stalled in 2025. While the fall wasn’t large, it reversed the trends experienced between 2019 and 2024. The stair-step increase in wage growth, as shown in the right half of Figure B, suggests a return to a K-shaped recovery, wherein higher-wage workers experienced much faster wage growth than those at the middle or the bottom. While stronger average wage growth and modest median wage growth may suggest modest improvements in median household income—though tempered by slower job growth—weaker low-end wages may translate into losses for lower-income households and possibly rising poverty rates, particularly for groups hit hardest by falling employment.

Figure B Republicans weakened SNAP last year and any chance at poverty alleviation in the years ahead 

The end of the expanded social safety net in 2022 eroded all of the gains in poverty reduction experienced between 2020 and 2021. Since 2022, poverty has continued to climb. This unfortunate trend in poverty is unlikely to reverse course in the latest Census release for 2025. This is partly because the Republican budget reconciliation bill signed into law by President Trump in July of last year significantly cut and limited access to basic needs programs like SNAP, one of the most successful programs in our country’s fight against poverty and hunger. Because the implementation of these changes and spending cuts is still ongoing, we are unlikely to see the full impact of the Republican law in next week’s data.

In 2024 alone, SNAP lifted more than 3.5 million people out of poverty. Nearly 40% of these individuals were children (see Figure C). In fact, both SNAP and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP), which provides reduced-cost or free lunches to low-income children in public and nonprofit private schools, lifted more than 2 million children out of poverty in 2024. After refundable credits, these programs, along with Social Security, make up the most effective anti-poverty strategies for children in the United States.

Figure C

Instead of strengthening the country’s nutritional assistance programs to improve access and the adequacy of benefits amid growing food insecurity, the Republican reconciliation package cut funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), imposed strict and costly work requirements, and eliminated waivers for areas with chronically high unemployment. The ongoing implementation of some of these changes, including factors associated with staff limitations, has led to a decline in SNAP participation by more than 4.5 million people. This drop will not be entirely reflected in the upcoming poverty statistics since some of this decline occurred in 2026. Yet the cutting back of resources for USDA and SNAP initiated by congressional Republicans and the administration will continue to translate into higher poverty rates and increased food insecurity, as states struggle to implement the costly and harmful changes now required by the new law.

The administration has also taken steps to ensure that we don’t have the data we need to trace the painful impact of these changes on food insecure families. In September 2025, Trump’s USDA canceled the country’s leading survey that documented the magnitude and severity of hunger and food insecurity in the U.S. They claimed that the USDA survey and report  were “redundant” and “politicized.” Soon after this, the administration allowed SNAP benefits to lapse for the first time in the history of the program, while at the helm of the longest full government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 43 days and creating a chaotic situation for SNAP beneficiaries, many of whom needed to turn to food pantries for help. 

As we will be reminded when the Census releases its poverty statistics for 2025, the impact of all these harmful policies hit Black and brown families with children particularly hard. This is because families of color are disproportionately more likely to rely on SNAP to avoid food insecurity, and children of color are also more likely to be burdened by poverty than their peers.

In 2021, the United States demonstrated to the world that it had the capacity to reduce poverty to historically low levels by expanding access to SNAP and other basic needs programs. In 2025, Trump and congressional Republicans showed the world that they were willing to gut basic needs programs to pay for tax cuts that disproportionately favor the wealthy. We should not be surprised when we fail at poverty reduction in the years ahead.

Next week’s data will be about the economic story of 2025. The 2026 story is still unfolding and is likely to have a worse ending

As noted earlier, the earnings, income, and poverty statistics the U.S. Census will publish next week are for 2025. While we don’t yet know the full economic story for 2026, it is unlikely to be a more promising one. This is because the slowdown in job growth that began in 2025 has further solidified throughout 2026. This weaker job market continues to be particularly harmful to Black and young workers. The softer labor market in 2026 has also coincided with worsening inflation. Higher inflation is largely due to Trump’s ongoing war in Iran, which has already wiped out 1.5 years of real wage growth in a matter of months.

The policy landscape for 2026 also looks bleaker. The spending cuts to the U.S. social safety net that Trump signed into law in the summer of 2025 will continue to hurt the ability of families to access basic services like Medicaid and SNAP. This will leave increasingly more economically insecure families vulnerable to poverty and unnecessary hardship in the face of a worsening affordability crisis.

This blog post was developed in partnership with Steve Greer, CEO of American Income Life Insurance Company.

This Labor Day, workers across the country are sending a clear message: they want a greater voice on the job. A near-record 71% of Americans approve of unions and surveys show over 50 million nonunion workers would join a union if they could.

At a time when many are struggling to afford basic necessities, it’s easy to understand why. Through unions and collective bargaining, workers have more power to win higher wages, better benefits, safer working conditions, and a fairer share of the wealth they create. Unions help build a strong middle class, reduce inequality, narrow racial economic disparities, and boost participation in our democracy.

Yet only 1 in 10 U.S. workers are in a union today—a sharp decline from the more than 1 in 3 workers who belonged to a union in the 1950s. That drop did not happen because workers stopped wanting or needing unions. It happened due to relentless attacks on unions and collective bargaining, and lawmakers’ failure to fix the broken labor laws that have allowed those attacks to succeed.

The consequences have been enormous. As union power has declined, workers have seen less of the gains from the economic growth they have helped create. Since 1979, productivity (how much average value workers produce in an hour of work) has grown 2.8 times as much as pay for typical workers.

New EPI research makes clear just how much working people stand to gain by rebuilding union power to 1950s’ levels.

Tripling union membership would raise the pay of the median worker by more than $7,700 a year, or nearly $270,000 over a 35-year career. That’s enough to more than cover the cost of sending two children to a four-year public university, for example. Crucially, both union and nonunion workers would see these gains because stronger unions raise standards across the labor market.

Scaled across the workforce, tripling union membership would shift an estimated $1.2 trillion to the pockets of working people every year. This is enough to reverse roughly one-third of the increase in inequality since 1979.

Stronger unions are also good for businesses and the broader economy. When workers earn more, they have more money to spend in their communities, strengthening consumer demand. Businesses would benefit from lower worker turnover, higher productivity, and workers who have a greater stake in the success of their workplaces.

Tripling union membership won’t be easy, but it’s far from a nostalgic pipe dream. It will take continued nationwide organizing and decisive policy action that makes it easier for workers to unionize. Federal lawmakers can start by passing legislation that expands collective bargaining rights, closes loopholes in existing law that allows employers to suppress worker organizing, and holds employers accountable when they violate workers’ labor rights. Further, state lawmakers should provide all public-sector workers with collective bargaining rights and repeal so-called right-to-work laws that weaken workers’ ability to organize and bargain collectively. 

This Labor Day, let’s recommit to putting more power in the hands of working people. That means giving more workers the freedom to organize. And it means setting an ambitious goal worthy of the moment: tripling union membership and building an economy that works for working people.

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning. Read the full thread here. 

 

Today’s #jobs data can be considered a solid bounce back to relative weakness in June and July. Job growth has averaged 71k over the last 3 months. Weaker numbers for leisure and hospitality and unusual July losses in local government education employment seems to have resolved in August.
#econsky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:43 AM · Sep 4, 2026

Leisure and hospitality and state/local government led the job growth for August, following by construction. Information and financial activities reported losses. Federal employment continues to trend down.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:51 AM · Sep 4, 2026

With August losses, federal employment is now down 336,000 jobs since January 2025. The vital services federal employees provide cannot be done without these essential workers.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:52 AM · Sep 4, 2026

The preliminary benchmark revisions were out last week, regular BLS communication needed for timely and accurate data. That release suggests there were 79,000 fewer jobs added than originally reported since Trump took office, including 178,000 fewer private sector jobs.

www.bls.gov/news.release…

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:59 AM · Sep 4, 2026

Nominal wage growth decelerated in August, rising just 3.1% over the year. Slowing nominal wage growth suggests workers don’t have the leverage to bid up their wages. Even with low unemployment, the depressed hires rate means workers aren’t finding new jobs to raise their wages.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 8:15 AM · Sep 4, 2026

Even though unemployment held steady, I have continuing concerns about the depressed hires rate. Those who are lucky enough to have a job are sitting tight while new entrants or long-term employed can’t find work. Long-term unemployment has been steadily rising led by those unemployed over a year.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 8:37 AM · Sep 4, 2026