Earlier this year, I gave an informal briefing on the macroeconomic effect of AI-related spending. It focused largely on claims that AI spending was the only thing standing between the U.S. economy and a recession, as well as concerns that AI spending was supported by fragile financing structures that could collapse and threaten near-term growth.

AI-related spending is providing much of the growth in the U.S. economy today. Business investments in structures and equipment (capex) that are driven by AI firms have accelerated noticeably in the past year. How much of this investment consists of imports rather than U.S.-based production is an open and important question. Even more important is the wealth effect on consumption from the AI stock boom, which seems to have firmly entered bubble territory. Combined, the capex spending and the consumption spending spurred by the stock market bubble are adding over a percentage point to GDP growth.

Worse, both types of spending seem fragile as medium-term sources of growth. The stock market bubble could deflate at any time, and when it does, it will almost certainly pull down much of the capex spending as well. After all, the entire reason for the frenzied capex build-out is the expectation of future profits. If these expectations radically change, the capex spending will evaporate.

If AI spending growth slows and the economy falls into a recession, policymakers should follow the typical recession-fighting playbook and use monetary and fiscal policy to boost the demand that was erased. The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates, and Congress and the president should direct fiscal aid to struggling families.

I then point to a couple of long-run observations about AI and its effect on labor markets, mostly echoing our arguments made in this report. One key finding: Despite widespread concern that AI will be strongly capital-biased, the profit share in the non-financial corporate sector has actually declined markedly since 2022.

For those interested, the PowerPoint and notes from the briefing are below.

PowerPoint presentation

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Briefing notes

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