Like Tony Wikrent, I too found Yves Smith's article, Why so Little Self-recrimination Among Economists"" singularly enlightening, but for a couple of different reasons.
1. Smith says:
We have just witnessed [economists] make a massive failure in diagnosis. .... – the authorities took the "everything is for the best in this best of all possible worlds" posture until the wheels started coming off. And even when they did, the vast majority were constitutionally unable to call its trajectory.
Now of course, a lonely few did sound alarms. ...., but the bigger point is that these warnings were often ignored.
[Peter] Shiller has offered a not-very-convincing defense, claiming that economists were subject to "groupthink" and no one wanted to stick his neck out.....
In other words, economists themselves behaved exactly as social psychology -- but not neoclassical economics -- predicts!
2.
....[T]he AEA schedule ... did not [have] anything that questioned existing paradigms. And one paper that did was released recently, "The Crisis of 2008: Structural Lessons for and from Economics," fell so far short of asking tough questions that it proves Madrik's point. The analysis is shallow and profession serving. And that is not to say the author, Daron Acemoglu, is writing in bad faith, but to indicate how deeply inculcated economists are.
....
We also have this:
A deep and important contribution of the discipline of economics is the insight that greed is neither good nor bad in the abstract.....
, greed is the id without restraint. Psychiatrists, social workers, policemen, and parents all know that unchecked, conscienceless desire is not a good thing. Acemoglu calls for external checks ('the right incentive and reward structures"), when the record of the last 20 years is that a neutral to positive view of greed allows for ambitious actors to increasingly bend the rules and amass power.... Like it or not, there is a role for social values, as nineteenth century that may sound. The costs of providing a sufficiently elaborate superstructure of rules and restrictions is far more costly than having a solid baseline of social norms.....
Because of neoclassical economic theory's ridiculous assumptions about human behavior, they completely miss the cornucopia of human behavior that is not governed by external reinforcement, but instead is governed by the "internalization" of reinforcement. i.e., the person has learned to like doing the deed. Thus economists need to call for expensive and ungainly "incentive and reward structures" when internalized social norms are virtually free (viz: in Japan it would be unheard of for a corporate executive to earn anything like the ungodly sums habitually made by American financiers and senior management. The reason is, in Japan such uncooperative behavior is social anathema).
So long as neoclassical economics attempts to deduce "rational" behavior and refuses to adopt the rules long known by behavioral psychologists, it will continue to be as false a science as Ptolemaic physics -- calculating refinement upon refinement of nonexistent inaccurate epicycles.
Comments
Excellent observations
I am preparing to go on the road again, so I have not much time. If you would like to take my diary and combine it with yours for posting elsewhere (I'm thinking DailyKos and EuroTrib), I would be delighted. I have a slightly expanded version at http://discuss.epluribusmedia.net/node/3452.
as the resident naysayer
Behavioral psychology has a lot of wrongs and inability to predict behavior as well.
Take for example, trying to tie in credit scores to give insurance rate quotes. That is from 1 study only, has been seriously questioned as valid, yet this is now used.
Does a credit score really predict if someone is more accident prone? Mean they are not a bad driver?
Obviously the correlation is spurious and there is potential for some other behavior associated potentially, such as being an alcoholic and so on, but obviously the conclusion that good credit scores imply one is a good driver is false.
I think any theory going from statistical results in the past should automatically be incorporating human behavior simply because that behavior is implied in past economic data which would fit the model.
You are proving one of my points!
You: " That is from 1 study only, has been seriously questioned as valid"
That's the beauty of running experiments. There is data which can be tested, and hypotheses retested in further experiments. The study can be shown to be flawed. In other words, the hypothesis is falsifiable.
Economics as currently practiced in the mainstream has no falsifiable hypotheses.
It isn't an either/or chocie between "bad brains" and "bad math." Modern economics has both.
give an example
So far these conversations are generalities so I need an example. The ones I just gave are from pure mathematical modeling so that's "classical economics vs. classical economics".
I've seen this over and over again where some buried assumption or raw data that is completely biased is used to write some sort of philosophical political agenda disguised as an economics paper. Drives me nuts because I know even reporters just do not have the analytical skills and the mathematical skills to dig into these "studies" pinpoint these flaws.
I mean David Kay Johnston for example, he has spent the time to dig into the US corporate tax code and simply finds out the real facts and how much of a ripoff on the American people the corporate tax code is...
So I need an example, because behavioral psychology, at least to me, is a series of actuarial science type of models (at best) and a set of controlled experiments claiming to predict behavior. That said, their theories, have not proved to be correct in the real world either.
To me, behavioral psychology is really based on static modeling versus multivariate adaptive nonlinear modeling, which I believe is the real world.
i.e. let's take abused kid x and abused kid y. Behavioral psychology predicts both will end up with alcoholism, lower intelligence, trouble making correct decisions and a strong correlation for repeat behavior as the abuser in adulthood.
Well, in reality, those results are not written in stone, there is more, it's adaptive, it's cognitive.
Kid x becomes a serial killer, kid y becomes a successful neurosurgeon with a happy family.
Same behavior, same events, different outcomes.
People are not linear, time invariant systems.