December 2013 Retail Sales increased 0.2% for the month on groceries, booze, gas and clothing. Retail sales have now increased 4.1% from a year ago. Electronics & Appliances tanked with their sales down -2.5% for December. Auto sales plunged -1.9% from the previous month, but that's OK, they are still up 6.2% for the year. Holiday sales increased 3.8%, a fine showing of more consumerism in America.
The November personal income and outlays report shows a 0.5% change in consumer spending, even when adjusted for inflation. This is the highest monthly percentage change in consumer spending adjusted for inflation since February 2012 and is good news for Q4 GDP. October consumer spending was revised up to 0.4% for the month.
September 2013 Retail Sales decreased by -0.1% on auto sales, which plunged -2.4% from the previous month. Motor vehicle dealers sales have still increased 5.8% from a year ago. Without all motor vehicles & parts sales, September retail sales would have shown a 0.4% increase.
August 2013 Retail Sales increased by 0.2% on auto sales, which increased 0.9% from last month. Motor vehicle dealers are having a good year. Their sales have increased 12.3% from a year ago. Without motor vehicles & parts sales, August retail sales would have been a 0.1% increase from last month. Building materials and clothing dragged retail sales down as they declined -0.9% and -0.8% respectively.
The July personal income and outlays report shows no change in real consumer spending, which is really bad news for GDP. Not adjusted for inflation consumer spending rose a scant 0.1%. Real personal income isn't any better with no change for the month. Personal income not adjusted for inflation rose 0.1%.
Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier. The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change. Unfortunately this is a fluke.
June 2013 Retail Sales increased by 0.4% on auto sales, which increased 2.1% from last month. Motor vehicle dealers are having a good year. Their sales have increased 12.9% from a year ago. Without motor vehicles & parts sales, June retail sales would have shown no change from last month. Furniture had a surprise showing with a 2.4% increase in sales. If one removes gasoline sales from retail sales, overall the increase would have been 0.3%.
The April personal income and outlays report shows personal income has no change from last month, mainly due to less inflation. Disposable income decreased -0.1%, but adjusted for inflation, shows a monthly increase of 0.1%. Consumer spending decreased -0.2%, but when adjusted for inflation grew by 0.1% for the month, which is meager.
The February personal income and outlays report shows personal income bounced back by 1.1% from last month's nose dive that was due to the payroll tax holiday expiration and fiscal cliff deal. Disposable income increased 1.1% but after adjusted for inflation, shows a monthly increase of 0.7%. Consumer spending increased 0.7%, but when adjsted for inflation grew by 0.3% for the month.
The January personal income and outlays report is horrific. Personal Income nose dived -3.6% from December and hasn't seen this big of a monthly drop since January 1993. That's 20 years ago. The blame is being laid on the payroll tax holiday expiration and December did see a rise in personal income also not seen since December 2004. Disposable income is worse. DPI dropped -4.0%, even when adjusted for inflation. Ouch!
Recent comments