On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

From Goldman Sachs:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.1%.
emphasis added

From BofA:

Nonfarm payrolls are likely to increase by a robust 185k in March, higher than consensus expectations of 135k, due to payback in leisure & hospitality for cold weather in Jan and Feb. Government job growth is expected to come in at just 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE driven job cuts to be a sizable drag, although risks are to the downside. We expect the u rate to remain at 4.1%.

• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 155,000 private sector jobs were added in March.  This was above consensus forecasts and suggests job gains above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.

• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased to 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month.   This would suggest about 50,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 21,000 manufacturing jobs added in March.

The ISM® services employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. This would suggest 30,000 jobs lost in the service sector. Combined this suggests 80,000 jobs added, well below consensus expectations.  (Note: The ISM surveys have been way off recently)

• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 225,000 in March compared to 224,000 in February.  This suggests layoffs in March were about the same as in February.

• Conclusion: Over the last year, employment gains averaged 155 thousand per month - and that is probably the current trend.  It seems early for the government related layoffs to significantly impact employment.  Also, although the ISM employment indexes were weak this month, my guess is headline employment gains will be above consensus in March.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 March

On the positive side of the Easter calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported increases across the key performance metrics, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 March. ...

23-29 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.1% (+4.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.65 (+2.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.19 (+7.0%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

Brief excerpt:

House Price Growth Continues to Slow

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 2.7% year-over-year in February, down from 3.4% YoY in January.

• Home price growth is beginning to cool as modestly improved demand is running up against higher levels of inventory across most major markets

• The annual home price growth rate dipped to +2.7% in February from +3.4% the month prior, marking the sharpest single month of deceleration in the annual home price growth rate since early 2023, 2023, with an early look at March data via ICE's enhanced Home Price Index suggesting that price growth has cooled further to +2.2%

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, home prices rose by +0.11% in the month, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +1.3%, the softest such growth in five months

• In simple terms, that means that if the current rate of monthly growth we’ve seen in recent months were to persist, it would result in annual home price growth continuing to slow as we make our way through Q1 and into Q2 2025

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

There is much more in the newsletter.

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, down from 53.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.2%, from 53.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50.8% March 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the ninth consecutive month in March, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 55th time in 58 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In March, the Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the February figure of 53.5 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.9 percent in March, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 54.4 percent recorded in February. This is the index’s 58th consecutive month of expansion. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 50.4 percent in March, 1.8 percentage points lower than the February figure of 52.2 percent. The Employment Index dropped into contraction territory for its first time in six months; the reading of 46.2 percent is a 7.7-percentage point decrease compared to the 53.9 percent recorded in February.
emphasis added

This was below consensus expectations.

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $122.7 billion in February, down $8.0 billion from $130.7 billion in January, revised. .

February exports were $278.5 billion, $8.0 billion more than January exports. February imports were $401.1 billion, less than $0.1 billion less than January imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased and imports decreased in February.

Exports were up 4.8% year-over-year; imports were up 19.7% year-over-year.
Exports have generally increased recently, and imports increased sharply. 

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China increased to $21.1 billion from $19.9 billion a year ago.  
The surge in imports in January and February happened as some importers were avoiding the coming tariffs.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending March 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,000 to 224,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 223,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $110.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $131.4 billion in January.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for March.

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in nine states, and remained stable in six, for a one-month diffusion index of 52. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.6 percent over the past three months and 0.2 percent in January.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. 
This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In January, 36 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."
Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  
Heavy truck sales were at 403 thousand SAAR in March, down from 436 thousand in February, and down 12.1% from 459 thousand SAAR in February 2025.  
Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 10.1%.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Perhaps heavy truck sales will be revised up, but this was somewhat weak.
As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales "surged" in March to 17.77 million SAAR as some buyers rushed to beat the tariffs.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.  
Light vehicle sales were at 17.77 million SAAR in March, up 11.0% from February, and up 13.3% from March 2024.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

A brief excerpt:

From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis

The national multifamily market has been under supply-side pressure over the past two years. Steady demand finally paused the vacancy climb after a banner year with record-level inventory growth. Average vacancy stalled at 6.3%, the highest since 2010.

Moody’s Analytics reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 6.3% in Q1 2025, unchanged from an upwardly revised 6.3% in Q4, and up from 5.8% in Q1 2024. This is the highest vacancy rate since 2010.

This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities.

There is much more in the article.

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 155,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.6%

“Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 119,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 135,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. Most mortgage rates finished last week lower, with the 30-year fixed essentially unchanged at 6.70 percent. Last week’s level of purchase applications was its highest since the end of January, driven by a 3 percent increase in conventional purchases, while government purchase applications were down 2 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Overall purchase activity has shown year-over-year growth for more than two months as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to increase, a positive development for the housing market despite the uncertain near-term outlook. Refinance applications were down almost 6 percent last week and remain very sensitive to rate movements, as most borrowers have mortgages with lower rates.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.71 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 9% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up about 26% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 5% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index declined and remains very low.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February.

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site).

March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis surged to 17.8 million units, highest for any month in nearly four years, and far above January-February’s combined total of 15.8 million. Buyers flocking to dealer lots to beat potential price increases, combined with some pre-tariff push by automakers raising deliveries to fleet customers lifted raw volume to over a 4-year high, not to mention a rare double-digit year-over-year gain. Regardless of any coming impacts from tariffs, March's booming results will cause lower volume in the second quarter due to the additional drain to dealer inventory that, based on industry norms, was already lean prior to the month.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for February (red).
Sales in March (17.77 million SAAR) were up 11.1% from February, and up 13.3% from March 2024.

Sales in March were well above the consensus forecast.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

This was the best March since 2021.

After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign. See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full. 
I was pretty optimistic on the economic outlook!

By early 2019, I was becoming more concerned: "So far Mr. Trump has had a limited negative impact on the economy. ... Fortunately the cupboard was full when Trump took office, and luckily there hasn't been a significant crisis" (emphasis added).  
Unfortunately, the COVID crisis struck in early 2020 and Trump performed poorly.
Once again, the economy was in good shape at the start of Mr. Trump's 2nd term in 2025.  Just after the election, Fed Chair Powell said, "The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world."  And in December, Powell said the US economy is the "envy of other large economies around the world".
In his 2nd term, Mr. Trump is being more aggressive with his economic plans.  At the same time, he is not benefiting from the tailwinds I described in 2016.
For example, in 2016, I was positive on housing starts and new home sales.  

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.
The black arrows point to the start of Mr. Trump's terms in 2017 and 2025.  In early 2017 I was projecting further increases in housing starts.  Now I think housing starts will be down year-over-year and move more sideways over the next few years.
Also, in 2016, demographics were improving, and the largest cohort in US history was moving into their peak earning years.  Now, demographics are more neutral, and possibly even negative if legal immigration is limited.
The key tailwinds at the start of Mr. Trump's 1st term and now more neutral and even negative.
And there are additional self-induced headwinds.  The tariffs are clearly negative for economic growth.  Goldman Sachs economists recently noted:

Reflecting both the tariff news and a decline in our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to just 0.2%, we have also lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pp to 1.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis (and by 0.4pp to 1.5% on an annual average basis).

And - because of the rhetoric of the Trump administration (suggesting Canada should be the 51st state and the VP saying Denmark isn't a good ally (completely false and offensive) - there will be less international tourism to the US, and there is a growing international boycott of US goods.

Of course, I don't expect any progress over the next four years on key long-term economic issues like climate change and income / wealth inequality (that will likely get worse).
The US economy is resistant to policy mistakes, and I'm still not currently on recession watch.  However, I'm not sanguine.

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure is 2.9 percent above the February 2024 estimate of $2,133.8 billion.
emphasis added

Both private and public spending increased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,686.4 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised January estimate of $1,671.8 billion. ...

In February, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $509.3 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised January estimate of $508.1 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 5.3% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak.

Public construction spending (orange) is at a new peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 1.6%. Private non-residential spending is up 2.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 6.0% year-over-year.

This was above consensus expectations; however, spending for the previous two months was revised down.

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 49.0% in March, down from 50.3% in February. The employment index was at 44.7%, down from 47.6% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.2%, down from 48.6%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% March 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March after two consecutive months of expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in March, 1.3 percentage points lower compared to the 50.3 percent recorded in February. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 59th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 45.2 percent is 3.4 percentage points lower than the 48.6 percent recorded in February. The March reading of the Production Index (48.3 percent) is 2.4 percentage points lower than February’s figure of 50.7 percent. The index dropped back into contraction after two months of expansion, with eight months of contraction before that. The Prices Index surged further into expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 69.4 percent, up 7 percentage points compared to the reading of 62.4 percent in February. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.5 percent, down 2.3 percentage points compared to the 46.8 percent recorded in February. The Employment Index registered 44.7 percent, down 2.9 percentage points from February’s figure of 47.6 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in March.  This was below the consensus forecast, new orders and employment were especially weak and prices very strong.

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for February; the employment report this Friday will be for March.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in February to 7.57 million from 7.76 million in January.
The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways

Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week. We haven't been outside of that range since then.

Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range. [30 year fixed 6.74%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS.

• Also at 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February.  

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending.

• All Day: Light vehicle sales for March.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

A brief excerpt:

Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q4 2024 (just released).
...
Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2024.

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 54.1%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 72.1%). These low existing mortgage rates makes it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply. This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low.

Time is slowly eroding this lock-in effect.

There is much more in the article.