Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 15 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 15 November. ...

9-15 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 60.9% (-4.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.41 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$93.97 (-4.6%)

The Veteran’s Day calendar shift drove a double-digit decline in group demand, resulting in lower performance levels across the U.S.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 1.7% year-over-year compared to October 2024. The last 2 months of 2025 will have more difficult year-over-year comparisons.
...
Year-to-date, sales are essentially unchanged compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995! Sales this year will be close to last year.

Will this be the lowest level of sales in 30 years?

There is much more in the article.

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October

Month-over-month

• 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October

• 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.7% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (4.10 million SAAR) were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 1.7% compared to the October 2024 sales rate.  
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.52 million in October from 1.53 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 10.9% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.4 months in October from 4.5 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's average.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,250.
The graph includes all the missing weeks while the government was shutdown.

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 119 thousand in September.  Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 22 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 35 thousand).

Payrolls for July and August were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy lost jobs in both June and August.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 1.31 million jobs.  
Year-over-year employment growth is slowing sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% in September, from 62.3% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was increased to 59.7% from 59.6% in August (blue line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.

This was above consensus expectations, however, July and August payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined.  
Overall another weak report.
I'll have more later ...

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI October 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms

The ABI score of 47.6 for October indicates that fewer firms reported declining billings this month than in September, when the score was 43.3. In addition, inquiries into new projects increased significantly this month, with the largest share of firms in a year and a half reporting an increase. On the other hand, the value of newly signed design contracts decreased yet again, as projects remain smaller and clients remain hesitant to commit.

Billings softened at firms in all regions of the country in October, except for those in the Midwest, where they were essentially flat for the second consecutive month. Business conditions remained softest at firms located in the West, while the pace of the decline in billings held steady at firms located in the Northeast. Firms located in the South saw conditions weaken further this month, after approaching growth over the summer. The billings decline also accelerated this month at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year after approaching growth in the third quarter. And conditions remain soft overall at firms with institutional and multifamily residential specializations.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (45.1); Midwest (49.6); South (45.3); West (42.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.6); institutional (46.3); multifamily residential (46.8)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.6 in October, up from 43.3 in September.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 35 of the last 37 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in October, up 0.7% from September’s preliminary pace and up 1.5% last October’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report October existing home sales on Thursday. The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

There is also a discussion of R* in the article.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 28-29, 2025. Excerpt:

In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that inflation had moved up since earlier in the year and remained somewhat elevated. Participants further noted that available indicators suggested that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace. They observed that job gains had slowed this year and that the unemployment rate had edged up but remained low through August. Participants assessed that more recent indicators were consistent with these developments. In addition, they judged that downside risks to employment had risen in recent months. Against this backdrop, many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, some supported such a decision but could have also supported maintaining the level of the target range, and several were against lowering the target range. Those who favored or could have supported a lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting generally observed that such a decision was appropriate because downside risks to employment had increased in recent months and upside risks to inflation had diminished since earlier this year or were little changed. Those who preferred to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting expressed concern that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective had stalled this year, as inflation readings increased, or that more confidence was needed that inflation was on a course toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, while also noting that longer-term inflation expectations could rise should inflation not return to 2 percent in a timely manner. One participant agreed with the need to move toward a more neutral monetary policy stance but preferred a 1/2 percentage point reduction at this meeting. In light of their assessment that reserve balances had reached or were approaching ample levels, almost all participants noted that it was appropriate to conclude the reduction in the Committee's aggregate securities holdings on December 1 or that they could support such a decision.

In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive. Some participants assessed that the Committee's policy stance would be restrictive even after a potential 1/4 percentage point reduction in the policy rate at this meeting. By contrast, some participants pointed to the resilience of economic activity, supportive financial conditions, or estimates of short-term real interest rates as indicating that the stance of monetary policy was not clearly restrictive. In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee's December meeting. Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate as the Committee moved to a more neutral policy stance over time, although several of these participants indicated that they did not necessarily view another 25 basis point reduction as likely to be appropriate at the December meeting. Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period. Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year. All participants agreed that monetary policy was not on a preset course and would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year. Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data. br /> emphasis added

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $59.6 billion in August, down $18.6 billion from $78.2 billion in July, revised.

August exports were $280.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than July exports. August imports were $340.4 billion, $18.4 billion less than July imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased slightly and imports decreased in August. 

Exports were up 1.9% year-over-year; imports were down 1.9% year-over-year.
Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $18.9 billion from $27.8 billion a year ago.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 125 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level. The overall average loan size across both purchase and refinance applications dipped to its lowest level since August of this year, driven by another drop in the ARM share.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.37 percent from 6.34 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 28-29

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  
Imports were down 12.5% YoY in October, and exports were down 5.1% YoY.    
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.2% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   
Outbound traffic decreased 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.
This is the 11th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales hit highest level since February, C.A.R. reports

California home sales rose in October from both the prior month and a year ago to reach the highest level since February, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 282,590 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

October home sales edged up 1.9 percent from 277,410 in September to 282,590 in October. Home sales improved 4.1 percent from a revised 271,370 recorded a year earlier.

There is much more in the article.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, up from 37 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist

Market uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown along with economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and rising construction costs kept builder confidence firmly in negative territory in November.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 38 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.”

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 6% in November, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 65% in November, tying the share in September and October.
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 41, the index measuring future sales fell three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point gain to 26.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 48, the Midwest fell one point to 41, the South increased three points to 34 and the West gained two points to 30.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for nineteen consecutive months.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 8:30 AM ET,Housing Starts for October.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.

• At 10:00 AM, The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, down from 37. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

In October, sales in these markets were down 0.3% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 8.0% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending increased and public spending was unchanged:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,652.1 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,647.5 billion. ...

n August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $517.3 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised July estimate of $517.5 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 6.5% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is 6.8% below the peak in December 2023.

Public construction spending (orange) is close to the peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 2.0%. Private non-residential spending is down 4.0% year-over-year. Public spending is up 2.7% year-over-year.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.7%), and down 5.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.6%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 14th, inventory was at 840 thousand (7-day average), compared to 842 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 16, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 5.7, down from 10.7.

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.09 per barrel and Brent at $64.39 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $67, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are down about 11% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.06 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.03 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.03 year-over-year.