This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 367 thousand.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Click on graph for larger image.

Heavy truck sales were at 367 thousand SAAR in November, up from 339 thousand in October, and down 25.2% from 491 thousand SAAR in November 2024.
Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 13.2% in 2025 compared to 2024 through November.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.  

The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 15.6 million in November on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 2.0% from the sales rate in October, and down 5.6% from November 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through October (red from Omdia).
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".
Then sales were depressed in May and June. 
Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in November were slightly above the consensus forecast of 15.4 million SAAR.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -1.1% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent fell 1.0% in November, and now stands at $1,367. This was the fourth consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we will close out the year with an additional modest rent decline in December.

Realtor.com: 27th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

October 2025 marks the 27th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $29, or -1.7%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.6%, up from 52.4% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.9%, up from 48.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.6% November 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in November, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the sixth month in a row with a reading of 48.9 percent, a 0.7-percentage point improvement from the 48.2 percent recorded in October — the fourth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.1 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 50.8 percent recorded in October and 2.2 percentage points above its 12-month average of 51.9 percent. This is the 12th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 65.4 percent in November, its lowest reading since hitting 65.1 percent in April 2025. The November figure was a 4.6-percentage point drop from October’s reading of 70 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 12 straight months.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 6th consecutive month, and prices paid remained high.

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) increased 0.1 percent in September after moving down 0.3 percent in August; for the third quarter as a whole, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent. In September, the indexes for manufacturing and for mining were unchanged relative to August, and the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in September was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged relative to August at 75.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 75.9% is 3.6% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 101.4. This is below the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was below consensus expectations (with revisions).

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of 20,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 33 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 109 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved lower in line with Treasury yields, which declined on data showing a weaker labor market and declining consumer confidence. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.32 percent after steadily increasing over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “After adjusting for the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, refinance activity decreased across both conventional and government loans, as borrowers held out for lower rates. Purchase applications were up slightly, but we continue to see mixed results each week as the broader economic outlook remains cloudy, even as cooling home-price growth and increasing for-sale inventory bring some buyers back into the market.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.32 percent from 6.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 17% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 20,000 jobs added, down from 42,000 in October.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for November.  The consensus is for 52.1, down from 52.4.

It was almost thirteen years ago when I wrote "The Future's so Bright …" I noted that I was the most optimistic since the '90s, and that things would only get better.

I pointed out that housing starts would increase significantly over the next several years, that state and local governments would start hiring again, that the budget deficit would decline sharply, and that household deleveraging was nearing and an end.

As I noted in January 2013: "There are several tailwinds for the economy, and the headwinds (like household deleveraging) are mostly subsiding."

Now these tailwinds have subsided. The significant growth for housing starts, new home sales and vehicle sales, is behind us.

With the exception of data centers, commercial real estate is struggling, and some sectors - like hotels - are in recession.  The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has been in contraction for 35 of the last 37 months, suggesting a slowdown in CRE investment well into 2026.
And the Federal budget deficit is increasing sharply.

Fortunately the unemployment rate is still historically fairly low (but increasing), and household debt service and financial obligation ratios are low. 

I was also positive on demographics too, but unfortunately with less immigration and more prime age deaths, the demographic outlook isn't as favorable as a several years ago.

And we haven't addressed some of the longer term challenges I mentioned thirteen years ago:

There are a number of longer term challenges from rising health care expenditures, climate change, income and wealth inequality and more, but I remain very optimistic about the longer term too. There is a constant focus on the aging population, but by 2020, eight of the top ten largest cohorts (five year age groups) will be under 40, and by 2030 the top 11 cohorts are the youngest 11 cohorts. The renewing of America! And these young people are smart (less exposure to lead is a significant story), and well educated too.

Note: Here is an update on demographics through 2024.
Unfortunately recent policy choices have made the long term challenges more difficult.  But I'm still optimistic that those issues will be addressed.

I'm not currently predicting a recession (although I'm watching), and I expect further growth in 2026, but the near term future isn't as bright now.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in October.

There were several key stories for October:

• Sales NSA are essentially unchanged YoY through October, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! And the YoY comparisons for November and December will be more difficult.

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 3 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels.

• The median price is up 2.1% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).

Sales at 4.10 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were at the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.38 million SAAR for the month of October in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In October, sales in these markets were up 2.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were up 2.9% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local data coming in December for activity in November!

There is much more in the article.

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From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Erase Last Week's Gains

The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s. Last week saw that average drop to 6.20% and now today, we're right back up to 6.31%. [30 year fixed 6.31%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• All day: Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for 15.4 million SAAR in November, up from 15.3 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.4% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 0.9% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $447,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 3.0% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.2% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in August. The real National index has decreased for 9 consecutive months.

It has now been 40 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.2% in November, down from 48.7% in October. The employment index was at 44.0%, down from 46.9% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.4%, down from 49.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.2% November 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the ninth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.2 percent in November, a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.7 percent in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 67th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month in November following one month of growth; the figure of 47.4 percent is 2 percentage points lower than the 49.4 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than October’s figure of 48.2 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58.5 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the reading of 58 percent reported in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the 47.9 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 44 percent, down 2 percentage points from October’s figure of 46 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was very weak and prices very strong.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.6% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 15.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.5%), and down 4.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.7%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 28th, inventory was at 817 thousand (7-day average), compared to 830 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 30, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 48.6%, down from 48.7%.

• At 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. 

• At 8:00 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Brief Remarks and Panel Discussion with Michael Boskin and Condoleezza Rice on George Shultz and his Economic Policy Contributions At the Hoover Institution’s George P. Shultz Memorial Lecture Series: George Shultz and Economic Policy, Stanford, Calif.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $58.55 per barrel and Brent at $62.38 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $68, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 14% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.96 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.01 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.

Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On November 28, 2025, LBR was at $544.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September

• FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026

• Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October

• Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. The employment report for November will NOT be released this week.  Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week.
The key reports this week are the November ISM manufacturing index and November vehicle sales.

----- Monday, December 1st -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 48.6%, down from 48.7%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. 

8:00 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Brief Remarks and Panel Discussion with Michael Boskin and Condoleezza Rice on George Shultz and his Economic Policy Contributions At the Hoover Institution’s George P. Shultz Memorial Lecture Series: George Shultz and Economic Policy, Stanford, Calif.

----- Tuesday, December 2nd -----
TAll day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 15.4 million SAAR in November, up from 15.3 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. 
The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Wednesday, December 3rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 20,000 jobs added, down from 42,000 in October.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for November.  The consensus is for 52.1, down from 52.4.

----- Thursday, December 4th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 218,000, up from 216,000 last week.

----- Friday, December 5th -----
10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

From J.D. Power: November New-Vehicle Retail Sales Decline 4.8% as Effects of EV Pull-Ahead Persist Brief excerpt:

Total new-vehicle sales for November 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,255,900, a 5.2% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. November 2025 has 25 selling days, one fewer than November 2024.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million units, down 1.2 million units from November 2024.
...
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power:

"November’s results reflect another notable—yet anticipated—decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, driven largely by the pull-ahead of electric vehicle (EV) purchases prior to the expiration of federal EV tax credits on Sept. 30. That expiration prompted many shoppers to accelerate buying decisions, resulting in a surge in EV sales that temporarily inflated the overall industry sales pace. Now, two months after the credit expired, the industry continues to feel the effect of those accelerated purchases. In November, EVs are expected to account for just 6.0% of new-vehicle retail sales, consistent with October but well below the 12.9% recorded in September.
emphasis added

From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay site): US Light Vehicle Sales Declining Again in November; Falling Inventory Lowers Chance for a December Rebound

Tighter inventory, tanking deliveries of battery-electric vehicles, and an overall rise in prices for what is available are capping demand, with expectations the October-November slowdown continues in December.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power's forecast for November(Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 154 million SAAR would be up slightly from last month, and down 7.6% from a year ago.
All of Q4 will likely be difficult for vehicle sales.

The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled, and the 2nd release has not been scheduled.

From BofA:

On net, given the higher weighting of the months of Jul and Aug in quarterly consumer spending as compared to Sep, our 3Q PCE tracking is down a tenth to 3.1% q/q saar. This along with higher-than-expected Aug business inventories left our 3Q GDP tracking at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 26th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on November 26, down from 4.0 percent on November 25. After this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.4 percent to 3.5 percent. [November 26th estimate]