My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Barron’s 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance: Our annual list honors women helping their companies, clients, and country through volatile markets and challenging times. Meet this year’s 28 new additions. (Barron’s)

• Why Private Market Funds Are Dangerous for Retail Investors.  Private market practices have developed without significant regulatory oversight, and the markets themselves have long been dominated by sophisticated players, potentially leaving inexperienced investors vulnerable. The push to democratize private equity access is really about expanding the fee pool. Retail investors should understand they’re buying illiquidity and opacity at premium prices. (ProMarket) see also The AltView’s take on industry propaganda: A summary feat. A skeptical look at the narratives the alternative investment industry sells to its investors. A summary. feat. *Altie* nominees Mercer, Pru, Goldman, Georgetown University, Willis Towers Watson, Blackrock, Neuberger Berman, Franklin Templeton, State Street, Empower and more! (TheAltView)

• For the Best Long-Term Bet in the AI Economy, Look to the Past: Morningstar makes the case that the real AI winners might be boring diversified funds, not the flashy thematic plays. History suggests they’re right. AI isn’t the first game-changing technology for the economy. Here’s what investors can learn from previous waves of innovation. (Morningstar)

• Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026: UBS’s annual compendium of long-term asset class returns across global markets. Essential reference material for any serious investor. The latest edition highlights what has driven real asset returns over time and what lessons we can draw to help navigate the future. (UBS)

• Should Hot IPOs Get Special Treatment? With offerings from SpaceX and OpenAI on the horizon, Nasdaq is considering a rules change that goes too far. The eternal debate about IPO allocation and whether retail investors deserve better access. Wall Street’s answer has always been ‘no,’ but the pressure is building. (Wall Street Journal)

• As AI Threatens Certain Jobs, How Will It Impact the Housing Market? If white-collar workers start earning less — or stop earning altogether — that has real consequences for housing demand.(Housing Notes)

• Prices for New Cars Have Soared. Here’s One Big Reason Why. Tariffs, supply chain friction, and regulatory costs keep pushing sticker prices higher.(Reuters)

• January’s EV Registrations Fell 41% As The Full Weight Of Trump’s Policy Changes Hit Home: Electric vehicle registrations fell off a cliff to begin the year, history says the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran will be disastrous for our auto industry, the Honda Prologue will soon join its newly canceled electric siblings in heaven and the Trump administration is suing California over its zero-emission vehicle and greenhouse gas rules. So much for states’ rights. Policy matters. Strip away the EV incentives and watch adoption collapse in real time. A masterclass in how government can kill a market transition. (Jalopnik)

• Marco Rubio’s Florida Bestie Is an Accused ‘Foreign Agent’ Set to Go on Trial — With Rubio on the Witness List. The Secretary of State’s close friend faces foreign agent charges, and Rubio himself may have to testify. David Rivera and Rubio bought a house in Tallahassee when they were coming up together in Florida politics. But he’s been a headache for the secretary of state ever since, and now he could be one for the Trump White House, too. (Vanity Fair)

• Britain is ejecting hereditary nobles from Parliament after 700 years: “Our parliament should always be a place where talents are recognized and merit counts,” he said. “It should never be a gallery of old boys’ networks, nor a place where titles, many of which were handed out centuries ago, hold power over the will of the people.” The House of Lords finally evicts members whose qualification for lawmaking is having the right great-great-great-grandfather. Better seven centuries late than never. (PBS)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

The real reason sunlight is increasing (it’s not daylight saving time).

Source: USA Today

 

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Bessent Leads Trade Talks With China In Paris Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

Ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, China and US have begun a fresh round of trade talks to set the stage for the main event. 

Trade negotiators led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks in Paris on Sunday to map out plans for a leaders’ summit later this month. The first day of the talks concluded around 6 pm local time, and the delegations will meet again on Monday, Bloomberg reported. The trade negotiators are expected to review the latest developments in a truce reached in November and discuss topics including the war in Iran as well as investment and purchases.

According to Bloomberg, Bessent, Greer and He have a history of bilateral negotiations. They met in Geneva last May to launch a series of talks that saw follow-on sessions in London, Stockholm, Madrid and Kuala Lumpur. That resulted in a truce under which Washington and Beijing lowered tariffs and export restrictions. Chinese Vice Finance Minister Liao Min and Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang are also at the talks. 

Bessent said on Thursday that his team will continue to deliver results that put America’s farmers, workers and businesses first. China’s commerce ministry said Friday the two sides are set to discuss “trade and economic issues of mutual concern.”

In January, Greer said the two sides could try to focus on reaching an agreement on trade in non-sensitive sectors in talks ahead of Trump’s visit to China.

The outcomes will set the stage for President Donald Trump’s trip to China from March 31 to April 2, the first visit by an American president to Beijing in nearly a decade.

The talks also marks the first time the two sides are meeting since the US Supreme Court ruled Trump didn’t have the authority to impose tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — a tool he used to threaten levies as high as 145% on China.

The Trump administration has since introduced an across-the-board tariff of 10% and vowed to recreate parts of its tariff wall using other authorities. Greer kicked off the process of imposing tariffs under his agency’s Section 301 authority by initiating an investigation into allegations of industrial overcapacity and forced labor practices for several economies, including China.

Trump’s visit to China will be the first for a U.S. president since he went in his first term in 2017. It will come five months after the two leaders met in the South Korean city of Busan and agreed to a one-year truce in a trade war that temporarily saw tit-for-tat tariffs soar to triple digits before the two sides climbed down. 

Still, trade remains a source of tensions. The commerce ministry on Friday hit back against the Trump administration’s new trade investigation into 16 trading partners, including China. The investigation - which came after a Supreme Court ruling struck down Trump’s sweeping global tariffs that were imposed last year - could pave the way for new tariffs.

Another issue that could be discussed is the Iran war, especially when global anxiety is soaring over oil prices and supplies. Trump said Saturdaythat he hopes China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and others will send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz “open and safe.”

Before Sunday’s talks, Gary Ng, a senior economist at French bank Natixis and a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, said the Paris meeting is likely the most important bilateral one before the Xi-Trump summit.

The key issue is “whether China and the U.S. can agree on what is agreed and manage disagreement. Iran is a new factor, but Beijing is more concerned about the flip-flopping of U.S. policies,” he said.

Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it would be a “big year” for China-U.S. relations. While he did not confirm the state visit, Wang said that “the agenda of high-level exchange is already on the table.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 16:35

Energy Secretary Directs Oil Company To Resume Operations In California, Citing National Security

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Energy Secretary Chris Wright on March 13 directed the Texas-based oil company Sable Offshore Corp. to restore operations in water off southern California.

Wright invoked the Defense Production Act to restore the company’s Santa Ynez Unit and Pipeline System near Santa Barbara to address supply disruption risks that “have left the region and U.S. military forces dependent on foreign oil,” according to a Department of Energy news release.

“The Trump Administration remains committed to putting all Americans and their energy security first,” Wright said in a statement.

“Unfortunately, some state leaders have not adhered to those same principles, with potentially disastrous consequences not just for their residents, but also our national security.

“Today’s order will strengthen America’s oil supply and restore a pipeline system vital to our national security and defense, ensuring that West Coast military installations have the reliable energy critical to military readiness.”

Officials said Sable Offshore Corp.’s facility can replace nearly 1.5 million barrels of foreign-sourced crude oil each month by producing roughly 50,000 barrels per day, resulting in a 15 percent increase to California’s oil production.

The Energy Department noted that the state used to supply nearly 40 percent of the nation’s oil production, with more than 60 percent of the oil refined in California now coming from overseas, including through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz.

This presents “serious national security threats,” the agency said.

Officials also said that restoring Sable Offshore’s operations will “create hundreds of additional American energy jobs while generating millions in local economic activity.”

The action follows President Donald Trump’s executive order from early last year, which reversed former President Joe Biden’s ban on offshore oil drilling on the West and East coasts.

Biden’s effort to shut down 625 million acres of federal waters from oil production was later struck down by a federal court.

Restoring oil production in Southern California comes weeks after the United States joined Israel in coordinated air strikes on Iran, igniting war in the Middle East. Iran has retaliated by striking oil fields and refineries in its Gulf state neighbors, and by shutting down the critical Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world’s oil travels.

Oil prices have skyrocketed to just over $98 per barrel by March 15, the highest level since oil climbed in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom criticized the Trump administration for ordering the restoration of oil drilling off the state’s coast, arguing the Sable Offshore pipeline would only increase total oil production by 0.05 percent and have “no impact on lowering global oil prices.”

“Donald Trump started a war, admitted it would spike gas prices nationwide, and told Americans it was a small price to pay. Now he’s using this crisis of his own making to attempt what he’s wanted to do for years: open California’s coast for his oil industry friends so they can poison our beaches. This wouldn’t lower prices by a cent,” Newsom said in a statement.

“This is an attempt to illegally restart a pipeline whose operators are facing criminal charges and prohibited by multiple court orders from restarting.”

The governor said California would fight the effort in court.

The pipeline was responsible for an oil spill in 2015 in which more than 100,000 gallons of crude oil spilled onshore near Refugio State Beach in Santa Barbara County.

Roughly 21,000 gallons of oil seeped into the Pacific Ocean, and thousands of birds and marine mammals died.

The incident resulted in a $23.3 million settlement and closed 138 square miles of fisheries for multiple weeks.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 16:10

Trump Administration Set To Receive $10 Billion Fee From TikTok U.S. Deal

The Trump administration is poised to receive roughly $10 billion in payments from investors involved in the recently completed transaction to take control of TikTok’s U.S. operations, delivering an unusual financial windfall tied to the government’s role in keeping the popular social-media platform active in the United States.

ByteDance is the Chinese parent of TikTok. John G Mabanglo/EPA/Shutterstock

The payments are part of the arrangement under which a consortium of admin-aligned investors took control of TikTok’s American business from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter. The payments are separate from the capital investors committed to establish a new entity that now operates the platform in the U.S.

Backers of the deal include cloud-computing firm Oracle, private-equity company Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi investor MGX. Those investors and others have already paid the U.S. Treasury about $2.5 billion when the transaction closed in January and are expected to make additional payments until the total reaches about $10 billion, the people said.

President Trump had previously signaled the government expected compensation for facilitating the arrangement. When outlining the framework for the deal in September, he said the United States would receive a “tremendous fee-plus” for its role in allowing the transaction to proceed.

“It hasn’t been fully negotiated, but we’ll get something,” Trump said at the time, arguing that the government’s involvement in securing the agreement justified compensation.

The $10 billion payment would be nearly unprecedented for a government helping arrange a transaction, historians have said. Vice President JD Vance previously said the new TikTok entity running the U.S. operations is valued at about $14 billion in the deal, which some tech analysts have said dramatically undervalues the company. 

As part of the agreement, the U.S. entity has to share profits with ByteDance, which licensed its popular algorithm to the new venture so it could be fully trained on Americans and still owns nearly 20%. -WSJ

Under the terms of the arrangement, ByteDance licensed TikTok’s recommendation algorithm to the new American venture, allowing the platform to continue operating with its core technology. ByteDance retains nearly a 20% ownership stake and will receive a share of the new entity’s profits.

Administration officials have defended the fee, saying it reflects Trump’s role in preserving TikTok’s U.S. operations while negotiating with China and addressing national-security concerns raised by lawmakers.

The transaction stems from legislation requiring TikTok’s U.S. business to reduce ByteDance’s ownership or face a shutdown. Lawmakers from both parties had expressed concern that Chinese control of the platform could expose sensitive data on millions of American users.

The TikTok arrangement is part of a broader pattern in which the administration has sought financial stakes or compensation in dealings involving major corporations. The government has taken a nearly 10% stake in Intel and negotiated an agreement to receive a share of chip sales to China from Nvidia in exchange for export licenses.

The administration has also secured influence over the operations of U.S. Steel through a “golden share” agreement tied to its takeover by Japan’s Nippon Steel.

Together, the moves signal a more direct government role in major corporate transactions - one that, in the case of TikTok, could result in one of the largest payments ever associated with a government-facilitated deal.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 15:45

French Municipal Elections Provide Early Test For Le Pen's National Rally Ahead Of 2027 Presidential Race

Takeaways

• France held the first round of municipal elections on Sunday in nearly 35,000 municipalities, serving as an initial indicator of political momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

• Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is seeking to expand its limited local presence, with ambitions focused on southern cities such as Perpignan, Marseille, Nice and Toulon.

• Pre-vote polls suggested competitive races in key targets, but full first-round results and projections are emerging gradually after polls closed, with many larger cities expected to head to a March 22 runoff.

• Turnout at 17:00 CET was estimated at 48.9%, up from 2020 but below 2014 levels; final estimates around 56-58% at 20:00 CET.

French voters went to the polls Sunday in the first round of municipal elections, casting ballots for mayors and councilors in a vote widely viewed as an early gauge of support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and other parties ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

PHOTO: AFP

The two-round system means most small municipalities will see winners decided Sunday if they secure over 50% of the vote, while larger cities, where no candidate typically reaches an absolute majority - advance to a March 22 runoff. Parties have until Tuesday evening to negotiate alliances, withdrawals or pacts that will shape final outcomes.

The RN, which leads national polls for 2027 (with Le Pen or Jordan Bardella as potential candidates, pending Le Pen's ongoing EU funds embezzlement appeal), has historically struggled to secure mayoral seats despite strong national performances. The party currently holds only about a dozen cities, with Perpignan (population ~122,000) as its largest stronghold under incumbent Louis Aliot.

Pre-election polling and RN strategy highlighted southern France as a priority area for expansion:

• In Perpignan, Aliot was favored to secure re-election, potentially outright or with a strong first-round lead, based on surveys showing him well ahead of fragmented opposition.

• In Marseille (France's second-largest city), RN candidate Franck Allisio polled closely with incumbent Socialist Mayor Benoît Payan (around 32-35% range in surveys), setting up a potential multi-way runoff if the left fragments (e.g., with France Unbowed's Sébastien Delogu qualifying).

• In Nice (fifth-largest), RN ally Éric Ciotti (from his UDR group) held strong pre-vote polling positions against incumbent Christian Estrosi.

• In Toulon and surrounding areas, RN's Laure Lavalette was seen as competitive in a region where the party has parliamentary dominance.

These targets reflect RN's aim to build grassroots infrastructure - more councilors and mayors for voter mobilization - and test the fraying "Republican Front" (cross-party efforts to block the far right). A symbolic win in a major southern city would mark a breakthrough, though municipal dynamics (local issues like security, public services, drug trafficking and economy) differ from national ones.

On the left, divisions between Socialists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Unbowed persist, while centrists and the center-right face challenges in places like Paris (Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire frontrunning amid Rachida Dati and others) and Le Havre (Édouard Philippe defending his seat).

Turnout figures showed modest engagement: ~19% at midday in some reports, rising to 48.9% at 17:00 CET nationwide (higher than 2020's pandemic-affected 38.77% but down from 2014). Final estimates hovered around 56-58% at 20:00 CET.

No comprehensive first-round results or nationwide projections were available immediately after polls closed (between 18:00 and 20:00 CET depending on the area), as counting begins progressively. Early partial tallies from smaller communes may appear soon, but major-city suspense - and any RN progress - will likely clarify overnight or into Monday, with runoffs deciding many high-profile races.

Le Pen, meanwhile, has been courting old money - though there appears to be some friction. As the Straits Times reports: 

A new circle of advisers with elite pedigrees is asserting influence, adopting what some National Rally officials describe as a “know-it-all” style that grates on the old guard.

Courting high society risks alienating the base who fuelled the party’s rise and that has long been wary of financiers and high-powered networks, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The internal friction comes at a pivotal moment, with the party leading polls roughly a year before the next presidential election, and just as France heads into its two-round municipal vote on March 15 and March 22 – an early test of the party’s electability. 

As Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella navigate the treacherous path to 2027, the National Rally's calculated pivot toward France's corporate and old-money elite - through technocratic advisers and pro-business overtures - represents both its greatest opportunity and its most potent risk. While these bridges could deliver funding, credibility, and a veneer of governability that has long eluded the party, they threaten to erode the populist authenticity that propelled its rise among working-class and disaffected voters. With the municipal elections offering an early, localized litmus test of the RN's mainstreaming efforts, the coming days and weeks will reveal whether Le Pen's "de-demonization" strategy can reconcile these worlds - or whether the old guard's warnings prove prescient, leaving the party close to power yet still unable to seize it

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 14:35

Companies Are Starting To Enforce AI Use. Is That A Good Or Bad Thing?

Via the AIX Files,

Years ago, I was working on the editorial side for what was then a hot new media company, and found myself spending more and more time with Johan, the lead programmer, and his team, asking them a lot of annoying questions as it was all so new – certainly to me. I was standing over Johan’s left shoulder, mesmerized by whatever new video game he was obsessing over that week…when suddenly, out of nowhere, a spreadsheet and a pie chart appeared on his screen.

“Whatcha got there, Johan?” asked Jim, Johan’s boss, peering over a sheaf of print-outs as he sharked past the cubicle.

“Hey, just looking at some numbers,” Johan replied. Johan had hit the “game key” in the nick of time – in those days, every video game had a game key – ALT-G if memory serves - calling up a slight variation of the same spreadsheet and pie chart.

This would never happen today. First, you’re probably not working in a cubicle, and if you are, it’s not the game key you’d hit to give your boss the impression that you’re actually doing productive work…it would be the “AI key.”

“Tech Firms Aren’t Just Encouraging Their Workers to Use AI. They’re Enforcing It.”

This article appeared in the February 24 edition of the Wall Street Journal. It includes the subtitle: From startups to giants, including Meta and Google, companies are factoring AI use into performance reviews and trying to track productivity gains

Across industries, companies are now enforcing AI use through performance reviews, dashboards that track adoption, and explicit mandates that tie it to compensation and promotion. What began in Silicon Valley has rapidly spread to consulting firms, banks, manufacturers, hospitals, and even government agencies.

As you’d expect, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft were the first to move from encouragement to enforcement. Employees at these firms now see AI usage metrics appear in quarterly reviews. Non-adopters have reported stalled promotions or explicit warnings that “AI fluency” is a core competency (The Wall Street Journal, Feb 2026, reporting on internal policies).

The trend has jumped sectors. PwC requires every consultant to complete an “AI + Human Skillset” curriculum and incorporates usage into evaluations (Business Insider, Feb 5, 2026). Colgate-Palmolive’s “AI evangelist” tracks adoption across global teams. Major banks have begun tying bonuses to the number of AI-assisted analyses completed. Even some hospitals now require doctors and nurses to use AI-assisted diagnostic tools for certain procedures.

Why the shift to mandates?

Executives cite three main drivers: intense competitive pressure to keep pace with rivals, investor demands for visible returns on massive AI investments, and internal data showing that voluntary adoption plateaus at around 30–40% of employees. “We’ve made it clear: AI is no longer optional. Every employee is expected to use it, and it’s now part of how we evaluate performance,” said Accenture CEO Julie Sweet (Fortune, March 2026).

The claimed benefits are real…on paper. Early internal metrics at several companies show 10–25% gains in task speed for routine work. Cross-functional teams using AI report faster ideation and fewer silos. But the drawbacks and unintended consequences are mounting.

While mandatory AI adoption offers productivity benefits, recent research reveals significant drawbacks that undermine organizational health.

• Surveillance and autonomy erosion. By 2025, 70% of large companies monitor employee activity, with 68% of employees opposing AI-powered surveillance and 59% saying digital tracking damages workplace trust. AI monitoring systems now track keystroke patterns, mouse movements, email content, and even biometric data, including stress levels. Amazon employees report that surveillance creates “fear and anxiety, which creates a dangerous work environment”.

• Burnout and intensified demands. AI meant to reduce workload is paradoxically accelerating burnout. Research found that AI leads to fatigue, burnout, and a growing sense that work is harder to step away from as organizational expectations for speed rise. A South Korean study shows AI adoption significantly increases job stress and burnout, while 63% of workers report AI-related fatigue driven by stress and heavy workloads.

• Collapsing trust. Recent research revealed that while AI usage jumped 13% in 2025, worker confidence plummeted 18%, creating a “toxic relationship” as employees receive tools without training or support. Deloitte’s TrustID Index showed trust in company-provided generative AI fell 31% between May and July 2025, with trust in agentic AI systems dropping 89%.

• Retention risks. Without adequate training, 56% of workers receive no recent skills development despite widespread AI adoption, and 85% say they would be more loyal to employers investing in continuing education - top performers become increasingly vulnerable to departure. Analysis warns of an impending “seniority cliff” as companies that stop hiring juniors eliminate the pipeline for developing senior talent with deep institutional knowledge.

Critics argue the enforcement model is shortsighted. 

“You can force usage, but you can’t force wisdom,” said Dr. Ethan Mollick, professor at the Wharton School and author of Co-Intelligence (interview, March 2026). “When AI becomes compulsory, people stop experimenting and start complying — and that’s when the real mistakes happen.” Yet the train has left the station. In boardrooms and earnings calls, executives are increasingly judged on how aggressively they have embedded AI into daily operations.

The message is clear: in 2026, using AI is part of your job. The question companies are only beginning to confront is whether forcing the technology will ultimately make their workforces more cohesive, smarter, and more efficient, or simply more exhausted, distrustful, and replaceable.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 14:00

Anduril Lands $20 Billion Pentagon Contract For "Modern Battlefield" Hardware

Nine days after Axios reported that Palmer Luckey's Anduril was raising around $4 billion at a $60 billion valuation led by a16z and Thrive Capital, Luckey landed a major enterprise contract with the US Army worth up to $20 billion over 10 years. 

Photo: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Announced on Friday, the deal features a five-year base period with an option to extend for another five years - and includes over 120 separate procurement actions into a single agreement which covers the full range of Anduril's commercial solutions - including hardware, software, infrastructure, data, computer systems, and technical support services.

"The modern battlefield is increasingly defined by software. To maintain our advantage, we must be able to acquire and deploy software capabilities with speed and efficiency," said Gabe Chiulli, chief technology officer at the Department of War’s Office of the Chief Information Officer.

The contract centers around Anduril's proprietary, open-architecture, AI-enabled Lattice platform, which serves as the core for integrating and unifying these capabilities into a mission-ready ecosystem. Recent reporting highlights its role in boosting counter-drone (counter-UAS) interoperability and other emerging needs.

Anduril, founded in 2017 by Luckey (the creator of Oculus VR), has grown rapidly as a defense tech company focused on autonomous systems and AI-driven solutions. Last year, it reportedly generated around $2 billion in revenue. The company has gained traction under the second Trump administration for its emphasis on autonomous military technologies, including drones, fighter jets, and submarines.

In January of last year, it was reported that Anduril will build a weapons megafactory, Arsenal-1, in Columbus, Ohio - which could 'go hot' as soon as July 2026. The five million-square-foot facility will be built near Rickenbacker International Airport.

* * *

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What Anduril Makes for the US Government and How It's Used

Anduril specializes in advanced autonomous systems, AI-powered software, and networked defense technologies designed for rapid deployment and scalability - often developed with private R&D funding before government contracts. Its flagship product is the Lattice platform: an open, AI-enabled software system that fuses data from sensors, drones, and other assets to provide real-time command and control (C2), situational awareness, and autonomous decision-making. Lattice integrates third-party and government systems, enabling a "software-defined" approach to warfare where updates happen quickly like commercial tech.

Key products Anduril supplies to the US government (primarily the Department of Defense, including the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, and Special Operations Command) include:

• Counter-UAS (counter-drone) systems — AI-powered tools to detect, track, and defeat small unmanned aerial threats, used for base protection, force protection, and battlefield defense amid rising drone proliferation (e.g., in contracts with SOCOM and the Marine Corps).
• Autonomous aerial systems — Such as the Ghost and Ghost-X small UAS for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), overwatch, and target identification at the squad level; larger systems like Fury for collaborative combat aircraft prototypes with the Air Force.

• Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) — Including Dive-LD (long-duration) and Dive-XL variants for persistent undersea missions like ISR, mine countermeasures, and anti-submarine warfare; related tech from the Ghost Shark program (developed for allies like Australia) has influenced US Navy selections.

• Surveillance and sensor networks — Semi-portable autonomous towers and ground-based systems for persistent monitoring of borders, infrastructure, or land regions (originally prominent in DHS/CBP border security "virtual wall" deployments).
• Other hardware and munitions — Precision strike systems like Bolt-M for the Marine Corps' Organic Precision Fires-Light program (man-packable loitering munitions for infantry squads); solid rocket motors for missiles; and contributions to programs like robotic combat vehicles or Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) support.
• Broader infrastructure — Networked command/control software, data processing, and edge computing to enable "connected warfare" across domains (air, land, sea).

These systems are used to modernize US forces by emphasizing attritable (low-cost, replaceable) autonomous assets, software agility, and countering peer threats (e.g., from China or Russia) through faster innovation cycles. Lattice often acts as the "brain," creating extensible networks where drones, sensors, and effectors operate together autonomously or semi-autonomously, reducing human risk and enhancing decision speed on the battlefield. This $20B Army contract builds on prior awards (e.g., counter-UAS deals worth hundreds of millions) and signals deeper integration of Anduril's tech across Army operations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 13:25

Waiting For Markets To Open

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

One thing that has become incredibly consistent during times of financial stress is all of the “green dots” on Bloomberg terminals on Sunday night. This Sunday night is likely to be no different.

There are plenty of questions being asked (at a presentation on Thursday at a conference in Vegas, I may have, for the first time, faced too many questions!). There will be time to figure out how we got here. What went right, what went according to plan, and what didn’t go so well. But now is not the time for that, at least not for investors and corporate decision makers. Now is the time to plan, adapt, and ensure the best possible outcome for what you are responsible for.

The U.S. attacked military installations on Kharg Island on Friday night after the markets closed. Kharg Island is crucial for Iranian oil exports. It has the deep seaports required to load cargo into tankers that then deliver it. However, no energy infrastructure was hit, only military targets (including mine and missile storage facilities). President Trump then threatened to “wipe out” oil infrastructure on Kharg Island if Iranian forces continued to block the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, on Friday, it was announced that the U.S. was sending more forces to the region. The Japan-based Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group includes the America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ships USS New Orleans and USS San Diego, and the embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. Sending these capabilities to the Persin Gulf will provide CENTCOM with additional options. These forces could be used in maritime interdiction, coastal raids, and help secure targets such as Kharg Island as well as islands in the Strait. This would put additional pressure on Iran. However, the decision to use troops for these missions has not been made just yet. It will also take a week or two for the forces to make it to the region. Please see below for some thoughts on these developments from our Geopolitical Intelligence Group:

“The strike on Kharg Island serves two purposes. First, there is military infrastructure on the island which may well have been involved somehow in enabling Iranian strike operations in the northern Persian Gulf. More importantly, however, it is a signal to the Iranian regime that we are willing, if necessary, to attack the oil infrastructure there. Iran exports around 90% of its oil through the Kharg Island terminal and its loss would be devastating for Iran's economy. The possible future damage or destruction of the facilities there also effectively removes Iranian oil from the global market for a long time and will certainly have an effect on the market. I'm only speculating here but threatening Kharg Island might also be aimed at pressuring China, which is the recipient of most of Iran's oil, to exert some positive influence on the regime.”– Neil Wiley, Former Principal Executive, Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“The deployment of the MEU provides the U.S. with more options and serves as a deterrent against further Iranian escalation. Last night's strikes and the deployment of the MEU signal to Iran that the U.S. is setting conditions to potentially take the island. However, the administration is clearly trying to prevent further rattling of the oil market by preserving Kharg's oil infrastructure. I think the preferred options all involve scenarios short of boots on the ground anywhere in the region but that may not be sufficient to secure the concessions/conciliation the U.S. wants from Iran. Unfortunately, the Iranian regime still seems committed to outlasting the U.S.'s tolerance for market worry.”– Admiral Kelly Aeschbach

There are ongoing operations (and presumably back-channel negotiations) occurring as you read this. They will not necessarily end on Sunday night, but by Sunday night/Monday morning, we will have a clearer understanding of where things stand.

Today’s quick note builds on Thursday’s SITREP – Iran Continues to Threaten the Strait of Hormuz.

A few things we do “know.”

• Markets are fixated on what is or isn’t transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

  • As far as we “know” the Strait is passable. There is no physical obstruction blocking ships from transiting it. This has been accomplished by some ships, presumably those laden with Iranian oil destined for their customers, such as China.

    • There are some questions about mines and unmanned/manned surface vessels.

    • There are a LOT of questions about potential drone and missile strikes.

    • The insurance backed by the DFC (The U.S. International Development Finance Corp.), has not encouraged ships to transit. I haven’t been able to access the policy itself, but insurance alone is not going to get ships and their crews moving.

• The story is moving beyond oil. Yes, oil gets the most attention, but it is only part of the story.

  • LNG is less fungible than oil and is likely the first product that causes major disruptions in economies. Diesel, jet fuel, and fertilizers aren’t far behind.

  • Downstream products like “plastics” may become a problem for supply chains. It is difficult to predict who or what will be hit (like we have seen in previous supply chain shocks), but with plastics in so many products, we may be in for some negative surprises.

  • Taiwan is dependent on imported LNG and helium (about 50% coming from Qatar), and this is becoming a topic of conversation. When one of the world’s most important countries in terms of making semiconductors enters the conversation, it makes sense to be a little more nervous.

  • Asia (ex-China) and Europe will be hit first. China has significant stockpiles, refining capacity, and has further restricted exports of refined products. “Force Majeure” seems to be the word of the week in Asia outside of China. Europe went from dependence on Russia to dependence on the Middle East. Maybe adopting ProSec™ and harnessing your own resources (even if not “carbon efficient”) isn’t a bad stop gap for the next decade or so.

  • Shutdowns are occurring. When you “shut down” a refinery or chemical processing facility, it is not like flicking a light switch. There is a controlled (and time-consuming process) in both directions. It can take a week or more to resume production at full capacity once the decision to start back up is made. This means that the more facilities that are shutdown, the further we are from “normalizing” quickly.

• “Simple” solutions aren’t helping.

  • Government “messaging” has lost its ability to turn markets on a dime. Last Monday we recovered rapidly from Sunday’s overnight price pressures. Every announcement on the conflict, the steps to reduce oil prices, etc., were met with good responses (lower oil prices, higher stock prices). That “mojo” dried up by the end of the week – hence we need to see “solutions.”

  • If it was “just” about the price of oil, the release of the SPR, evidence that the Saudis are able to use a pipeline to redirect their shipping routes, etc., would all have worked out better than it did for markets coming into the weekend. I do not understand the “waffling” or what seems like “waffling” on suspending at least part of the Jones Act so that the U.S. can supply itself more easily. That sentence seems almost nonsensical, but yes, the Jones Act makes it more difficult for parts of the U.S. to support other parts of the U.S.

  • The longer it goes on, the worse it is for the global economy and markets.

What we don’t know:

• The risk to oil (and LNG, fertilizer, downstream products, and food) shipments. We will be able to make a better assessment on Sunday and again on Monday morning as markets re-open.

• It seems clear that the admin is pushing to “normalize” trade and transit as early as Monday, but we don’t yet know if they will be successful.

• What will the economic issues be? Very difficult to predict, though Asia (ex-China) and Europe will likely be hit harder and faster than the U.S. and China. However, many “American” goods are manufactured in Asia and certainly require components from Asia.

• The timing of “victory.” The definition of “victory” seems to be “evolving.” If a hostile regime that is responsible for over a thousand American deaths over the years can be brought down and the world has a few weeks of higher energy costs and some “manageable” supply chain issues as a result, then the price is probably “worth it.” Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group does not seem concerned about losing, but it is a matter of timing and the cost of that victory in terms of blood and treasure, and that is the question they are all trying to answer.

Bottom Line

Hopefully by Sunday night, or Monday morning, we are watching oil trade down hard and stocks (and bonds) rally. But at this point It remains a hope, not a fact. We will try to evaluate where we stand, how markets should respond, and what is “next” on the table for the U.S. (based on what happens between now and then).

Bonds are not acting as a good hedge – spending fears (globally) and inflation (globally) are pushing on that. I do not see stagflation as a “steady state,” or even that plausible in an energy independent America, but too early to fight that chatter.

We want to write about Private Credit and Software (the two other market-driving forces), but for today, we will stick to this “preparatory note” as we set the stage to provide color and context as we start next week (which is really at 6pm ET Sunday when futures open).

We continue to hope and offer our best wishes to all involved in this conflict, especially to those in service and their families, in these incredibly stressful times.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 12:50

Obama-Appointed Judge Temporarily Blocks DHS From Ending Protected Status For Somali Immigrants

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on March 13 temporarily blocked the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from ending temporary protected status (TPS) for Somali nationals in the United States.

U.S. District Judge Allison D. Burroughs in Massachusetts (appointed by Barack Obama in 2014) issued the order following a lawsuit filed by four Somali nationals and two nonprofits—African Communities Together and the Partnership for the Advancement of New Americans—arguing that Somalis would face harm if their legal status were revoked.

TPS is a designation that allows individuals from countries affected by armed conflict, natural disasters, or other extraordinary events to remain in the United States.

DHS announced earlier this year that TPS for Somalia would end on March 17, saying that the country’s current conditions have improved and no longer warrant protection under the program.

In her ruling on March 13, Burroughs said that Somalis could face substantial consequences if the TPS termination were able to proceed while the legal challenge is still ongoing.

“Plaintiffs aver that if Somalia’s TPS designation is allowed to terminate, over one thousand people will face ‘a myriad of grave risks,’ including detention and deportation, physical violence if removed to Somalia, and forced separation from family members,” the judge said.

“On the other hand, if the court postpones the effective date of a decision committed to the executive branch by Congress, it risks harmful interference with its coordinate branches of government.”

Burroughs granted the plaintiffs an administrative stay and deferred ruling on the TPS termination to give both sides time to file briefs on the plaintiffs’ emergency motion.

“While the stay is in effect, the termination shall be null, void, and of no legal effect,” the judge stated.

She said the DHS must ensure Somali nationals with TPS or those with pending applications retain their rights and protections, including eligibility for work authorization and protection from deportation.

The Legal Defense Fund, one of the organizations representing the plaintiffs, welcomed the judge’s order in a statement.

“Although today’s court order is temporary, and many battles lie ahead within this legal challenge, the plaintiffs and their legal team are heartened by the interim protection today’s order affords all Somali people in the U.S. who have TPS or pending TPS applications,” it stated.

A DHS spokesperson said in a statement to multiple news outlets that the court order is another example of “judicial ​activists trying to prevent President [Donald] Trump from restoring integrity to America’s legal immigration system.”

According to the plaintiffs’ court filing, about 1,082 Somali nationals currently stay in the United States under TPS, while another 1,383 have pending applications.

The Biden administration in 2024 extended TPS for Somali nationals until March 17, 2026, citing “ongoing armed conflict and extraordinary and temporary conditions” within the country.

The DHS said on Jan. 14 that its outgoing Secretary Kristi Noem determined that Somalia no longer meets the conditions required for TPS designation after reviewing the country’s situation.

“Temporary means temporary,” Noem said in a Jan. 13 statement. “Further, allowing Somali nationals to remain temporarily in the United States is contrary to our national interests. We are putting Americans first.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 11:40

"New Era" Begins In Venezuela As U.S. Flag Is Raised At Embassy For First Time In Years

The United States Embassy in Caracas announced on X early Saturday morning that the U.S. flag was raised for the first time in seven years, stating that "a new era has begun for relations between the United States and Venezuela."

"On the morning of March 14, 2019, the American flag was lowered for the last time at the United States Embassy in Caracas. This morning, March 14, 2026, at the same hour, my team and I raised the United States flag, exactly seven years after it was removed," the embassy said, adding, "A new era has begun for relations between the United States and Venezuela. We are staying with Venezuela. - LFD."

En la mañana del 14 de marzo de 2019, la bandera estadounidense fue arriada por última vez en la Embajada de los Estados Unidos en Caracas. Esta mañana, 14 de marzo de 2026, a la misma hora, mi equipo y yo izamos la bandera de los Estados Unidos—exactamente siete años después de… pic.twitter.com/kTrwnnECdb

— Embajada de los EE.UU., Venezuela (@usembassyve) March 14, 2026

The reopening of the American embassy in Caracas comes a little more than three months after former left-wing President Nicolás Maduro was forcibly removed from power by U.S. Delta Force operators in a daring midnight raid. Shortly afterward, President Trump backed Maduro’s successor, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez.

That "new era" the U.S. embassy describes is one in which American companies are investing billions of dollars in the South American country across the energy and mining sectors.

Reuters previously reported that Chevron and Shell were close to the first major new oil production deals in Venezuela.

Last week, Reuters reported that the U.S. expanded sanctions waivers to support investment in electricity infrastructure and the energy industry, including fertilizer, and to allow U.S. companies to negotiate contracts for future projects within the country.

Venezuela's economy has been financially crushed by sanctions as well as by profound economic mismanagement under former socialist leader Maduro. Economists estimate that inflation surged by 400% last year.

Across the Caribbean, on Friday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel was forced to admit that his administration is in talks with the Trump administration aimed at "finding solutions through dialogue" to longstanding bilateral differences between the two neighboring countries.

The Trump administration is in the process of ridding the Western Hemisphere of socialists and communists who have caused nothing but trouble and have squandered the inheritances of entire nations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 08:45

Singularity Update: You Have No Idea How Crazy Humanoid Robots Have Gotten

Authored by Peter H. Diamandis via Metatrends,

I just spent the afternoon at Figure headquarters in San Jose with Brett Adcock and David Blundin, and I’m still processing what I saw.

We’re not talking about concept robots. We’re talking about fully autonomous humanoid robots running neural networks end-to-end, doing kitchen work, unloading dishwashers, organizing packages – for hours at a time, with no human intervention.

Today? Figure’s robots are doing 67 consecutive hours of autonomous work. One error in 67 hours. That’s not a demo. That’s a product.

And here’s what most people don’t understand: the gap between “doing one task really well” and “doing every task a human can do” is collapsing at exponential speeds.

Let me explain why…

NOTE: Brett has been a past Faculty Member at my Abundance Summit, where leaders like him share insights years before the mainstream catches on. In-person seats for the 2026 Summit next month are nearly sold out. Learn more and apply.

The Death of C++ and the Rise of the Neural Net

When I first visited Figure, they had several hundred thousand lines of C++ code controlling the robots. Handwritten. Expensive. Brittle.

Every new behavior required engineers to anticipate edge cases, write more code, test it, debug it. It was the software equivalent of teaching a toddler to walk by writing an instruction manual.

In the last year, Figure deleted 109,000 lines of C++ code.

All of it. Gone.

What replaced it? A single neural network that controls the entire robot: hands, arms, torso, legs, feet. Full-body coordination. Real-time planning. Dynamic response to unexpected situations.

This is Helix 2, their latest AI model, and it’s a fundamentally different approach to robotics.

Here’s why this matters: neural nets learn from experience, not instructions.

You don’t code a robot to “grab a cup.” You show it thousands of examples of grasping objects—different shapes, weights, materials—and the neural net extracts the underlying patterns. It learns what “grasping” is at a representational level.

And once it understands grasping? It can generalize to objects it’s never seen before.

Brett put it simply: “If you can teleoperate the robot to do a task, you can train the neural net to learn it.”

That’s the unlock. If the hardware is capable—if the motors, sensors, and joints can physically perform the movement—then the AI can learn it from data.

Compare that to traditional robotics, where you’d need to write thousands of lines of code for every single new task. That approach doesn’t scale. Neural nets do.

The implication: Every robot in the fleet learns from every other robot’s experience. When one Figure robot masters folding laundry, every Figure robot on the planet instantly knows how to fold laundry.

Humans don’t work like this. Robots do.

Hardware Built Around the Brain

Most people think you design the robot first, then figure out the AI.

Figure did the opposite.

Brett’s team looked at the neural network architecture they wanted to run and asked: “What hardware do we need to make this work?”

That’s why Figure 3 exists. It’s not an incremental upgrade. It’s a complete redesign built around Helix.

Here’s what changed from Figure 2 to Figure 3:

• 90% cost reduction in manufacturing

• ~20 pounds lighter (135 lbs total)

• Palm cameras for occluded grasping

• Tactile sensors in every fingertip

• Passive toe joint for better range of motion

• Soft-wrapped body to eliminate pinch points

• Onboard inference compute (no cloud dependency)

And critically: designed for data collection at scale.

Because here’s the thing — if you’re betting on neural nets, you’re betting on data. The more diverse, high-quality data you collect, the better the robot generalizes.

Figure built their robot to be a data-gathering machine. Every sensor, every camera, every interaction feeds back into the training loop.

And they’re not using off-the-shelf parts. They manufacture their own actuators, hands, battery systems, embedded compute—everything.

Why? Because the technology readiness of existing robotics components is too low. If a vendor’s motor fails in the field, you’re stuck waiting for them to fix it. If you built it yourself, you iterate overnight.

This is vertical integration at its finest. And it’s the only way to move fast enough to win.

The Manufacturing Ramp: From Thousands to Millions

Walking through Figure’s Baku (manufacturing facility) was surreal.

Four production lines. Capacity for 50,000 robots per year when fully ramped.

But Brett’s not stopping there. He’s already planning the next facility. Tens of thousands. Then hundreds of thousands. Then millions.

And here’s the kicker: Figure will use its own robots to build more robots.

They’re putting humanoids on the production lines this year. Robots assembling robots. Robots testing robots. Robots packaging robots.

Why? Because if you’re trying to scale to a billion units, you can’t rely on human labor. You need an exponential manufacturing curve, and the only way to get there is recursive self-improvement.

Think about it: every improvement Figure makes to the robot’s dexterity, speed, and reliability makes it better at building the next generation of robots.

It’s a flywheel. And once it starts spinning, it’s nearly impossible to stop.

Brett estimates they could ship a billion robots today if the AI were fully general-purpose. The demand is there. The capital markets (via leasing models) can finance it. The constraint is solving general robotics.

And that’s exactly what they’re working on.

General Robotics: The Only Milestone That Matters

 

Here’s the thing about humanoid robots that most people—and most companies—don’t get:

Teleoperation is not impressive. Open-loop behaviors are not impressive. One-minute demos are not impressive.

What’s impressive is closed-loop, autonomous work in unseen environments over long time horizons.

Let me break that down.

Closed-loop means the robot is continuously sensing its environment and adjusting in real-time. It’s not replaying a pre-programmed sequence. It’s thinking.

Autonomous means no human in the loop. No remote operator in Tennessee. The robot is making decisions on its own.

Unseen environments means you can drop the robot into a random Airbnb or factory floor it’s never visited, and it figures out how to navigate and work there.

Long time horizons means hours, days, weeks of continuous operation. Not 30-second clips stitched together in post-production.

This is what Brett calls “general robotics,” and it’s the only milestone that matters.

If you can’t do this, you don’t have a product. You have a very expensive remote-controlled toy.

Figure’s current benchmark: four to five hours of continuous neural network operation in logistics, kitchen work, and manufacturing tasks.

Their 2026 goal: Drop a robot into an unseen home and have it do useful work for days with minimal human intervention.

Once they hit that, the game is over. Because if the robot can generalize to any home, it can generalize to any environment. Factories. Warehouses. Hospitals. Senior care facilities. Mining operations. Space stations.

The hard part isn’t building a robot that can do one thing well. The hard part is building a robot that can do everything a human can do.

And Figure is closer than anyone else on the planet.

The Timeline: When Will You Have One?

Everyone wants to know: when can I buy a Figure robot for my home?

Brett’s answer: Not yet. And I’m not going to ship slop.

Here’s his roadmap:

2026: Alpha testing in homes. A small number of robots doing long-horizon work (cleaning, organizing, laundry, dishes) in real households. The goal is to measure human interventions – how often does someone need to step in and help?

Right now, industrial deployments see occasional errors. The target for home deployment is orders of magnitude better.

2027-2028: Scaled home pilots. Tens, then hundreds, then thousands of units. Iterative design based on real-world feedback. Safety validation. Privacy validation. Reliability validation.

2028-2029: Mass production and broad availability.

Why so cautious?

Because Brett learned this lesson at Archer (his eVTOL company): you don’t ship safety-critical systems until they’re ready.

A humanoid robot in your home is around your kids, your pets, your elderly parents. If it drops a pot of boiling water, that’s catastrophic. If it steps on your cat, that’s catastrophic. If it gets hacked and streams your private conversations to the internet, that’s catastrophic.

So Figure is taking the time to get it right.

And honestly? I respect the hell out of that.

Because when Figure does ship, they’ll have a decade head start on everyone else in terms of safety track record, reliability data, and customer trust.

That’s a brand moat you can’t buy.

The Business Model: Leasing Humanoids Like Humans

Here’s the beautiful part of Figure’s go-to-market strategy:

They’re leasing robots the same way you lease humans — by the hour.

Think about it. You don’t “buy” an employee. You pay them a salary. You lease their time and capability.

Figure is doing the same thing. You don’t buy a $20,000 robot. You pay ~$300/month to lease one. That’s $10/day. Forty cents an hour.

Compare that to minimum wage ($15-20/hour in most US states). A Figure robot is 50x cheaper and works 24/7 with no breaks, no benefits, no turnover.

And because it’s a lease, Figure retains ownership. They can remotely update the software. They can recall and upgrade units. They can monitor performance and safety in real-time.

It’s the Apple model applied to robotics. And it’s going to print money.

Brett estimates the market for humanoid robots is half of global GDP: roughly $50 trillion annually. Because half of all economic activity is human labor.

And here’s the thing: the demand is already there.

Figure has signed multiple commercial clients. They’re deploying robots into factories, warehouses, and logistics operations this year. These aren’t pilots. These are revenue-generating contracts.

The bottleneck isn’t demand. It’s supply. It’s solving general robotics and scaling manufacturing fast enough to meet the orders.

When that happens? This becomes the largest economy in the world.

What Comes Next: The Age of Abundance

Let me paint the picture of where this is going.

2030: Every household in the developed world has access to a humanoid robot. You lease it for $300/month. It does your laundry, cleans your house, organizes your kitchen, runs errands.

You come home from work and your robot has already meal-prepped dinner based on your biometric data from your wearable. It knows you’re low on magnesium, so it adjusted the recipe.

2035: There are 10 billion humanoid robots on the planet. Five billion in homes. Five billion in commercial and industrial settings.

The cost of goods and services collapses. Why? Because labor is no longer a constraint. Robots mine the materials, manufacture the products, transport them, and deliver them to your door.

You want a custom piece of furniture? A robot designs it, fabricates it, and assembles it in your garage overnight. Cost: materials + energy. Labor: free.

2040: Robots are building robots. Robots are designing robots. Robots are optimizing supply chains, managing logistics, exploring asteroids, constructing orbital habitats.

Humans are freed from drudgery. We do what we’re best at: creating, exploring, connecting, imagining.

This is the age of Abundance.

And it starts in 2026.

Brett Adcock and his team at Figure are building it. Right now. In San Jose.

I’ve seen it. I’ve walked the floors. I’ve watched the robots work.

And I’m telling you: this is real.

The future doesn’t care if you believe in it. It’s coming anyway.

The only question is: are you ready?

To an Abundant future,

Peter

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 08:10

US Navy Surveillance Plane Made Provocative Flight Over Taiwan Strait, Weeks Before Trump-Xi Summit

With the world's attention hyper-focused on fast-paced events in Iran and the effectively shuttered vital oil transit hub, the Hormuz Strait, some significant things were also happening around Taiwan this past week.

The US military confirmed that a P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, a move that predictably drew Beijing's attention.

US Navy

China said it monitored the US Navy aircraft as it passed through the narrow waterway separating Taiwan from mainland China.

"By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations," the US 7th Fleet said in a statement, adding the transit "demonstrates the United States' commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific."

The latest fly-through comes just weeks before President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at hammering out a new trade agreement.

But the diplomatic backdrop is already showing strain, with regional media including The Japan Times saying that Beijing has grown irritated with Washington for failing to engage in serious advance planning ahead of the summit.

China is also without doubt angered as its Iranian oil imports are in extreme jeopardy due to Trump's Iran war, and recent bombing of Kharg Island export depot.

Against that backdrop, the Taiwan Strait patrol looks like a familiar piece of strategic signaling - a reminder to East Asian allies that even as Washington pours military resources into the Middle East, it still intends to project power in the Indo-Pacific.

Iranian oil shipments to China continue for a reason. With a Xi-Trump summit approaching, Washington has incentives to avoid steps that would directly pressure Chinese energy imports. Strategic stability with Beijing is clearly a priority right now. https://t.co/703UEnOmIR

— Craig Singleton (@CraigMSingleton) March 14, 2026

And yet if China were to invade Taiwan tomorrow, there's likely not much Washington could do about it at a moment it is concentrating its firepower and resources on regime change in Iran, alongside its Israeli ally.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 07:35

Unhappy Ending: Chinese National Pleads Guilty To Money Laundering Over Prostitution Scheme

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese national has pleaded guilty to laundering more than $2 million from a prostitution enterprise run through spa businesses in New York’s capital region, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of New York announced on March 11.

The U.S. Department of Justice in Washington on Aug. 7, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Xia Ming, 41, of Flushing, New York, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering on March 3. According to his plea agreement, Xia operated a prostitution enterprise from 2019 to 2025.

The enterprise consisted of “illicit massage businesses” disguised as “legitimate spas,” with employees providing “commercial sex services,” according to the court document. The establishment included Central Spa, Body and Skin Spa, Zen Body Works, Sisters Body Works, Relaxation Spa, and Physical Wellness Spa.

“Mr. Xia did not merely run an illegal business, he built a multimillion-dollar enterprise on the commodification of women, treating them as instruments for financial gain while laundering the proceeds to enrich himself through cash and real estate,” John A. Sarcone III, first assistant U.S. attorney for the Northern District of New York, said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Let this guilty plea serve as a clear warning: those who exploit others for personal profit and attempt to hide their gains will be identified, prosecuted, and stripped of their ill-gotten assets.”

Xia advertised his businesses online, transported his employees between locations, and traveled to each spa to collect money, according to the court document.

The spas brought in more than $2 million in proceeds, prosecutors said, which Xia admitted laundering through third parties before using the money to purchase properties.

The court documents list three properties in Albany, New York, two in Flushing, Queens, and one in Endwell, New York.

As part of his plea, Xi agreed to forfeit $198,000 in cash that was seized by law enforcement, along with the six properties—two commercial properties and four residences.

“By turning neighborhood spas into brothels and washing millions in criminal proceeds through our communities, Ming Xia treated the Capital Region as his personal cash register,” Erin Keegan, special agent in charge of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), said in a statement on Wednesday.

“His scheme exploited vulnerable workers, poisoned legitimate commerce, and robbed residents of the basic expectation that local businesses are safe and lawful.

“This guilty plea sends a clear message: HSI and our invaluable Homeland Security Task Force partners will strip criminals of their profits, seize their assets, and shut down any operation that tries to hide behind a respectable storefront.”

Xia, who was indicted in February 2025, is scheduled to be sentenced on July 1, according to the Attorney’s office. Xia faces up to 20 years in prison, up to three years of supervised release, and a $500,000 maximum fine.

The Epoch Times contacted Xia’s lawyer for comments, but didn’t receive a response by publication time.

In a separate case, four Chinese nationals living in Flushing were indicted in late January for allegedly running brothels disguised as massage spas located in Erie, Pennsylvania. The defendants were indicted on charges of conspiracy, human trafficking, immigration violations, and money laundering.

*  *  * TAKE MATTERS INTO YOUR OWN HANDS

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2026 - 07:00

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• Nasdaq’s Shame. How to rig an index to appease a billionaire. A look at how the exchange has lost its way. (Keubiko’s Musings)

• U.S. Plan to Unblock Strait of Hormuz Collides With Realities of Global Insurance: This U.S.-centric insurance idea runs counter to the realities of an international market, according to industry executives. You can clear the mines, but if no insurer will underwrite the tankers, the strait stays effectively closed.(Wall Street Journal) see also Pentagon Tells Congress First Week of Iran War Cost More Than $11.3 Billion. One week, $11.3 billion. And that’s before the real costs start compounding. In a Capitol Hill briefing, officials gave their most comprehensive assessment of the cost of the first six days of the war, but the number omitted several aspects of the operation. (New York Times)

• The insurance catastrophe: Whole regions of the world are now uninsurable, bringing radical uncertainty to the economy. How do we fix the problem? (Aeon)

• Inside the Dirty, Dystopian World of AI Data Centers: The race to power AI is already remaking the physical world. (The Atlantic)

• Indexing Capital Gains to Inflation by Executive Order Is Still Illegal and Still a Bad Idea. Bruce Bartlett explains why this perennial conservative wish list item remains both unlawful and economically dubious. The Usual Suspects Have Been Trying Since 1992 (Bartlett’s Notations)

• Trump Just Pardoned Ticketmaster When No One Was Looking. The DOJ’s settlement with Live Nation amounts to a get-out-of-jail-free card for the concert monopoly. The Trump DOJ settled with Ticketmaster, while state enforcers said they’ll continue. The judge is mad, the parties showed “absolute disrespect for the court, for the jury, for this entire process.” (BIG by Matt Stoller)

• Foreign Hacker Reportedly Breached FBI Servers Holding Epstein Files in 2023. Cybercriminal reportedly accessed a server at the FBI’s New York field office, according to a source and DoJ documents. The foreign hacker got into the FBI’s Epstein files three years ago. What did they get — and what happens next? (The Guardian)

• The US Is Counting Traffic Deaths Wrong. How you measure road fatalities changes whether the picture looks like progress or catastrophe.By emphasizing the number of people killed per mile rather than deaths per capita, traffic safety groups risk normalizing the factors that make American roads so deadly. (CityLab)

• President Trump’s Head-Spinning Pivot on an Emergency Oil Release: In a matter of hours, the White House changed its position and pushed allies to move forward with a massive oil market intervention. (Wall Street Journal) see also Oil Prices Could Easily Go Much Higher: If the Strait stays closed, look out above: If one looks at the state of global oil supply, it’s extremely dire. Around 20 percent of the world’s normal flow of oil is bottled up inside the Strait of Hormuz — and as we’ve seen in the past day, even tankers and oil facilities inside the Strait are vulnerable to attack. If this blockade persists, it will be a much worse shock to world oil supplies than the 1973 embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution, or the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Paul Krugman)

• Preliminary Inquiry: U.S. at Fault in Strike on School in Iran: Outdated targeting data may have resulted in a mistaken missile strike, according to the ongoing military investigation, which undercuts President Trump’s assertion that Iran could be to blame.  (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

Per capita income for the bottom 95% of the population, as measured by the World Inequality Database’s pre-tax national income series

Source: Informer

 

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

War, Oil And Debt: Which Threats To The US Economy Are Legit?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

It’s the magic number, the line that’s not supposed to be crossed; when a nation’s public debt finally exceeds its GDP. Historically speaking, it’s not a sign of doom like many economists suggest. Numerous countries have sustained for decades with a ratio of well over 100% and many other factors have to be considered before it’s officially time to panic. Of course, there are some cautionary tales.

Greece and Argentina are two examples. A number of developing countries shave been hit with precipitous decline after they hit the 100% mark. In the case of the US, having access to the world reserve currency changes the dynamic dramatically. Debt does not act like debt in an environment where global trade and investment is mostly is priced in dollars and you control the ability to print those dollars at will.

That said, the recent historic milestone has many people suddenly worried about the state of the US system and the precarious nature of the geopolitical landscape going into the future.

Gross national debt for the US crossed the 100% mark back in 2012. The official public debt touched 101% last month. This factor combined with the inflation of the Biden era and the geopolitical uncertainty of the Trump era has the media talking out loud about the kind of crisis we alternative economists have been warning about for quite some time.

It’s certainly an startling change; alternative economists are no longer the voice in the wilderness. But let’s consider for a moment WHY the mainstream has decided to adopt a crisis posture after so many years of ignoring the obvious.

It’s Okay To Talk About A Crash If It Can Be Blamed On Trump

The corporate media has a clear economic bias; optics must be good for establishment endorsed leaders and optics must remain bad for any political leaders on the naughty list. Regardless of what a person might think of Trump’s presidency so far, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the media spins his every move into a negative, even when he succeeds beyond expectations.

The tariffs are a perfect example – After Trump announced his aggressive strategy to counter outsourcing, the media and Democrats asserted that an unprecedented inflationary disaster was inevitable. This never happened.

They claimed consumers would have to eat the cost of the trade taxes on international corporations. This didn’t happen either. In reality, the CPI barely budged in response to tariffs. Why? Because companies are absorbing the higher costs (as I and some other economists predicted).

The retail markups on goods made overseas are substantial. International conglomerates have plenty of room to take the hit while avoiding raising prices on the shelf. Trump knows this, and anyone who has studied export markets knows this. Yet, the demonization campaign against tariffs was absolutely frantic.

This is just one example of a false threat; an imagined crisis fabricated for the sake of political interests rather than the for sake of protecting the American people. It’s important to be able to discern between very real economic dangers and false narratives designed to target and scapegoat.

Suddenly The Mainstream Is Noticing US Debt

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a Washington-based fiscal watchdog, released a sweeping new report this week warning that policymakers are “woefully underprepared” to handle the next recession or financial shock.

They assert that the national debt crossing the 100% benchmark is one signal among many that the US cannot handle a surprise destabilization event, though they note that interest payments on that debt are the greater concern. By 2036, according to Congressional Budget Office projections, debt is on track to reach 120% of GDP with interest swallowing $0.26 of every dollar the government takes in.

The report also warned about rising inflation dangers associated with monetary policy. This falls in line with reports of tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, but corporate news sources are painting the Fed as a kind of “wayward institution” stuck in the middle of a bad situation they have nothing to do with. In reality, the Fed is the cause of most of our nation’s debt and inflation problems; they enable the money printing bonanza and they are unaccountable to the American public.

Fortune Magazine has tied threats of inflation and debt accumulation to the Iran war, and Bloomberg has published articles lamenting an inevitable “wave of global inflation” due to the conflict. I find this fascinating given the media’s refusal to accept that inflation existed after the 2020 election. Bloomberg even asserted that rising inflation was a “mirage” and Fortune reprinted those claims.

The question is not what Trump will do in the face of a crisis event; rather, we must ask what the Fed will do? Will they raise rates again to mitigate inflationary pressure, or will they turn the money printers back on to stave off any potential deflationary consequences. Given their track record, it is likely the Fed will inflate, but high interest rates at this time could also be devastating.

With the GOP ostensibly in control of the government the bankers might be able to divert all blame onto conservatives policies, and to me this is the real concern. Will the Fed pull the plug on the economy simply because they have a convenient scapegoat?

Geopolitical Black Swan Or Minor Blip On The Radar?

Over the past couple years I have warned extensively about war with Iran, specifically in relation to the Strait of Hormuz and the 20% of global oil shipments that travel through it every year. The war itself is superfluous; I have little doubt that the US can and will destroy the majority of Iranian military infrastructure within a couple months. The greater danger is how easy it will be for insurgent elements to keep the strait closed using simple guerrilla tactics.

It doesn’t take much to block up the narrow strait and threaten global oil prices. Securing it would have to be a top priority of the Trump Administration, which seems to be the case given Trump’s latest statements. Troops on the ground are unavoidable to ensure the Hormuz remains clear, and this is going to ruffle a lot of feathers.

The strait is the only legitimate geopolitical leverage Iran has against the US, but not in the way many people assume. It is true that IF the Hormuz remains contested for more than a couple months, the economic effects could cascade into the markets and cause serious instability. However, this instability will initially affect the East, not the West.

Only 7% of US oil imports and 6% of European oil imports pass through the Hormuz. In comparison around 50% of China’s oil imports and 40% of India’s imports rely on the strait. The hardest hit, however, will be Japan, with over 70% of their oil imports relying on ships passing through the Hormuz. And, as most economists know, Japan’s markets are deeply intertwined with US markets through the Yen carry trade.

In Japan, ongoing oil-driven inflation could pressure the Bank of Japan to tighten policy through rate hikes or reduced bond buying. This narrows the carry trade differential, eroding carry profits and potentially triggering an unwind. In other words, it will no longer be cheap for investors to borrow Yen at near zero rates and then buy assets in the US.

Prices would have to rise considerably in order to trigger such a cascade, though. It’s important to note that the panic over an impending energy crisis is currently based on speculation and not legitimate shortages.

When an actual crisis occurs, we’ll know it. When shale oil drillers in the US ramp up production because they KNOW the high prices can sustain them, then it’s time to worry. When we see sustained weekly gas price spikes of 10%-20%, then it’s time to worry. If foreign countries initiate a large scale dump of the dollar as the petro currency, then it’s time to worry.

The war itself would have to carry on for many months to create these conditions and I’m not convinced yet that this will be the case. The expectation among many on the political left (and among libertarians) is that the war in Iran will carry on for years because that’s what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I have to ask this question, though: Has anyone considered the possibility that those wars lasted for decades because they were DESIGNED to go on for decades? Who decided the objectives? Who decided the parameters for success? Who decided that occupation was necessary? It was establishment Neo-cons and Democrats that created the necessity of occupation out of thin air. “Defeating the enemy” became a secondary concern.

The length of the Iran war will not be decided by the current Iranian regime, it will be decided by Trump. If the only objective is to destroy Iran’s ability to project military power and to secure the Hormuz (and avoid occupation of the greater territory), then the war will be short and there will be no energy crisis.

This is not my endorsement of the war in general, just the facts. There are much bigger threats to the US economy and the global economy than Iran right now.

The Real Danger

Iran has the potential to become a “linchpin” disaster, but the conditions are not right for one yet.  For now, I continue to believe that the most significant danger to the global economy and the US economy is still the European oligarchy and their push for war with Russia over Ukraine. Any move by the Europeans to deploy troops to the region could result in a large scale war that would dwarf the events in Iran and completely derail already fragile economic structures.

If you’re worried about global Armageddon, look to Ukraine, not Iran.

The largest secondary hazard is domestic. NGO funded leftist riots, terror attacks and movements to burn the country to the ground in the name of Marxist “deconstruction” are more perilous to the US than most of the populace understands. Add to this the increasing number of Islamic terror attacks and we’ve got a recipe for civil breakdown. Internal insurgencies would have to be handled by the armed citizenry rather than sitting around and relying on the government to do everything.

Then you have the Federal Reserve and the Catch-22 policy conundrum. The central bankers could, theoretically, collapse the US economy at any given moment using the sudden whiplash of a large rate hike or a large stimulus program. The financial system would not be able to adapt this time. With Trump in office I would argue that the bank is MORE likely to do this.

There is a fine line between vigilance and hysteria. We have to be careful not to blackpill ourselves into oblivion over events like tariffs or the war in Iran. That said, there are indeed very real catalysts brewing within geopolitics and on the home front. At bottom, there are people out there that desperately WANT the US to collapse.

For them, every crisis is an opportunity to push their agenda forward whether those crises are engineered or not. By extension, some threats are fabricated and exaggerated to conjure up a public frenzy, manipulate popular opinion and destroy the US from within. Knowing what is real and what is illusion is essential to our nation’s survival.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 23:10

Over 3 Million Iranians Forcibly Displaced Under US-Israeli Bombardment

More than 3 million Iranians have been displaced by the ongoing US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic, according to the main UN refugee agency. Ayaki Ito, director of the Division of Emergency and Program Support at the UN refugee agency, has described that the US-Israeli attack has already triggered mass internal displacement across Iran.

"Between 600,000 and 1 million Iranian households are now temporarily displaced inside Iran as a result of the ongoing conflict, according to preliminary assessments, representing up to 3.2 million people," Ito said.

Afghan refugees inside Iran, via AFP. Supposedly America wants to 'liberate' people through bombing them.

The dark and twisted irony in all of this is that Washington and Tel Aviv have claimed they want to "help" the Iranian people go "free"... by bombing them and destroying their civic infrastructure, apparently.

Most of those fleeing are leaving Tehran and other major cities as the air war intensifies and the crisis accelerates.

Though there were Friday scenes of large crowds of Iranian in Tehran streets and city squares defiantly protesting the US attacks - even as bombs fell around them - most Iranians are likely trying a way to flee to the countryside, or stay away from big cities in the homes of relatives.

The number of forcibly displaced people "is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs," the UN official added.

Iran also currently plays host to the largest population of refugees from Afghanistan (with Pakistan also hosting a huge number), in the millions of people. The war in Iran is said to be hitting Afghans hard, as resources must be rushed elsewhere as the bombs fall.

Meanwhile, the death toll from the US-Israeli bombing campaign continues to climb. The official death count is approaching 1500 people, including 165 children killed in a reportedly US double-tap strike on a girls' school.

The conflict is also fueling a parallel refugee crisis across the region, which could also potentially impact some Gulf regions. For example, Bahrain is experiencing some degree of destabilization as its huge Shia population rises up against the Sunni monarchy, and clashes with police have ensued.

In Lebanon, relentless Israeli strikes have displaced almost 15% of the country’s population, more than 800,000 people, monitors have said.

Mass evacuation orders issued by Israel now cover all of southern Lebanon and large sections of the capital, Beirut, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee as the war spreads across the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 22:25

Jet Fuel Prices Soar As War In Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Airlines, including Qantas, SAS, and Air New Zealand, have already announced airfare increases.
• Surging jet fuel prices and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are squeezing airline operations.
• Prolonged conflict could weaken travel demand and deepen pressure on global airline stocks.

As the war in Iran spills over into other parts of the Middle East, energy experts expect the price of several oil and gas products to soar over the coming months, driven by shortages. This will likely affect flight prices, with several airlines warning of anticipated price hikes. It could lead to a travel slump, as consumers wait for prices to fall again.

Australia’s Qantas Airways, Scandinavia’s SAS, and Air New Zealand are three of the airlines to have already announced airfare hikes in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The airlines cited the abrupt spike in the cost of fuel driven by the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran as the reason for the move.

Jet fuel prices rose from between $85 to $90 a barrel before the attack on Iran to as much as $150 to $200 a barrel this week. This has led several airlines to reconsider their financial outlooks for 2026, as the uncertainty makes it impossible to predict where the price of fossil fuels will go in the coming months.

The war in Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The strait is considered a chokepoint, as there are few alternative options for energy transportation, beyond some limited pipeline networks in the region. The dramatic reduction in the transport of fossil fuels through the strait, which is said to have created the biggest oil supply disruption in history, has driven oil and gas prices up sharply in recent weeks.

An SAS spokesperson told Reuters, “Increases of this magnitude make it necessary to react in order to maintain stable and reliable operations,” adding that the airline has implemented a “temporary price adjustment.”

Some airlines will be more affected than others by the increase in jet fuel prices. For example, several Asian and European airlines, such as Lufthansa and Ryanair, have oil hedging in place, meaning that a part of their fuel supplies is maintained at a fixed rate. However, some companies are concerned that even the hedged fuel reserves may be at risk.

Finnair hedged more than 80 percent of its first-quarter fuel purchases and now worries that the fuel may no longer be available if the conflict continues. Some major jet fuel producers, such as Kuwait, have already been forced to reduce production and export quantities in recent weeks.

Another challenge that is driving airfares up is the closure of several airspaces because of the ongoing conflict, which has affected several Asia-Europe routes. Some airlines have been forced to open alternative flight routes for passengers to reach their destinations. Pilots have also been forced to reroute to avoid the Middle East conflict, while capacity on popular routes has rapidly increased.

“Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” Deutsche analysts were reported to have said in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, some companies, such as British Airways, are confident that they can maintain their current ticket prices in the near-term until more is known about the mid- to long-term impact of the conflict.  However, British Airways has cut certain routes due to continuing uncertainty, such as its seasonal flights to Abu Dhabi.

The uncertainty means that several airlines, across Asia, Europe, and North America, are seeing their shares plummet. Lorraine Tan, the director of equity research, Asia at Morningstar, stated, “The issue for the airlines now is that travel demand may be curtailed as costs become prohibitive for leisure travellers and as some companies start to limit business travel due to the uncertain outlook."

On Monday, during a party conference in Florida, U.S. President Trump announced, “We have already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” in reference to the war in Iran.  Trump says. The president added, “We go forward more determined to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.” Trump’s speech, as well as mixed messages from the president to several media outlets, have caused greater uncertainty, as there is no clear timeline for the conflict or an idea about when it might end.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already caused significant energy supply chain disruptions, which have driven oil and gas prices up. Meanwhile, uncertainties about when the U.S.-Israeli intervention in Iran will come to an end have led stocks across a range of industries to fall sharply. While many airlines attempt to weather the storm, it is likely that we will see significant price increases in airfares in the coming months.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 21:40

North Korea Fires 10 Ballistic Missiles, Flexing During US Regional Drills

It's obvious that 'wars of choice' never get launched against nuclear-armed powers, and countries like North Korea want to keep it that way, given it is already treated like a 'rogue' state by the West.

Saturday saw Pyongyang engage in more muscle-flexing, as its military fired about 10 ballistic missiles toward the eastern sea, according to South Korea's military said, staging its own show of force as the rival South conducts a joint military exercise with the United States.

Japan's Defense Ministry indicated the warheads landed in waters outside the country's exclusive economic zone, which is somewhat typical anytime the north conducts missile tests.

Regional media further says "The Japanese government has convened an emergency response team consisting of officials from relevant ministries and agencies at the crisis management center in the prime minister's office. The team is collecting information and confirming if there is any damage."

South Korea is meanwhile on high alert and says it has stepped up surveillance and military readiness in light of the new drills.

Pyongyang's actions aren't completely unprovoked, as the muscle-flexing comes as there's the same south of the border, per NBC:

The launches came as the U.S. and South Korean militaries conduct their annual springtime exercises involving thousands of troops while the Trump administration also wages an escalating war in the Middle East.

The war has raised concerns about potential security lapses in South Korea, as local media — citing security camera footage and other images — have speculated that the U.S. is relocating some missile defense assets stationed in the country to support operations against Iran.

To be sure, while the Kim regime traditionally rages over the drills on its border, claiming they are rehearsals for invasion, although it may well be right: US forces have been flooding into the Pacific over recent years with warships, warplanes, missiles and the army all on standby.

However, some of these regional assets - especially anti-air defense systems - are now being transferred over to the Middle East region amid the now over two-week-long Iran war.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 20:55

Iran War Exposes America's Unfixed Supply Chains

Authored by David Dayen via The American Prospect,

One of the more fascinating sidelights of our war of choice in Iran is how it has reinforced the devastating consequences of our hollowed-out industrial base, consolidated commercial sector, and overreliance on long intermediated supply chains.

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG 121) fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile during operations in support of Operation Epic Fury, February 28, 2026. Credit: U.S. Central Command Public Affairs/Cover Images via AP Images

For example, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz carries implications for not only oil but also fertilizer, right at the height of the spring planting season. About one-third of the world’s fertilizer ships through the strait, and without access, prices have jumped and farmers are anxious. Yet there are enough natural resources in the United States—nitrogen, phosphate, potash—to serve all our fertilizer needs; in fact, in the 1930s and ’40s one of the largest fertilizer producers in the world was the Tennessee Valley Authority. This production was wound down in the 1970s; today the industry is dominated by two to four firms, and that may end up having existential implications for hungry people the world over.

A more comically shortsighted example concerns our depleted stock of munitions, one of the few industrial capacities America has retained but which still is imperiled by concentration and outsourcing. These are of course the basic materials necessary to prosecute a war, and you’d think it would be the one item countries would retain the ability to produce themselves. But our trillion-dollar military operates more like a welfare program to help underprivileged Northern Virginia contractors buy second homes and luxury yachts, not as a force that has what it needs when it needs it. Pacifists should rejoice; stupidity in military supply chains puts a binding limit on how many brown-skinned people we can kill.

In the 1990s, dozens of military contractors were reduced to five prime integrators, something demanded by Clinton Defense Secretary Les Aspin and his deputy (and future defense secretary) William Perry at a meeting known as the “Last Supper.” Nearly all weapons and delivery systems now flow through Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics. Executives at these companies were called into the White House last Friday—less than a week after the war began—to discuss how to accelerate offensive and especially defensive weapons production amid a shortage that already was weighing on the military. This was after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the war was saved by shifting to smaller bombs rather than “exquisite” munitions for the campaign. If that was the case, why have the meeting?

Specifically, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile systems are so complex that only 96 get built per year; about one-quarter of the U.S. stockpile was used last year in Israel’s brief war with Iran, with many more flying every day as this war continues. Patriot interceptor systems are cheaper and easier to build, but inventories were a quarter full before the war started. Offensive Tomahawk missiles can be produced with greater frequency as well, but as of October last year the stockpile of that weapon was far short of its target. Something like $5.6 billion in weaponry was burned off in just the first two days of the Iran campaign. Trump’s lying aside, analysts who know something are clear on this point: The nation has a few weeks of bombing left before running out of the precision munitions typically used in modern warfare.

To be sure, the shortage has much to do with the U.S. selling off weapons to Ukraine and Israel to prosecute their wars. (Ukraine is trying to pull off a trade of Patriot missiles for instruction in intercepting drones.) But it seems impossible that a military that spends more than the next nine militaries combined would reach a point of shortage so rapidly. But that’s what happens when military contractors are really financial market optimization machines.

As The Lever has reported, leading military contractors have spent $110 billion on stock buybacks over the last five years, something so repugnant that even Trump has issued an executive order trying to ban it. Meanwhile, contractual overrun-by-design has become the industry standard. As I wrote last year, Lockheed has an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter that has cost $2 trillion over its lifespan and can’t travel long distances or be used in close-range combat, with hundreds of continuing defects that have not derailed its production. All this cash eventually ends up in the pockets of executives and shareholders.

This is why we have to race to take out opposing defenses quickly before we run out of the products that can do that. If we have a trillion-dollar military, but a week after you start to use it everyone screams that they’ve run out of everything and that more money is needed, then you don’t have a trillion-dollar military; you just have a contractor enrichment factory.

The White House has been rumbling about a $50 billion supplemental funding request, something they obviously find so critical that Republicans might burn up their last reconciliation bill of the year on approving it. Lockheed came out of the White House meeting saying they would “quadruple” Tomahawk production, though they didn’t give a timeline. It’s important to note that current production lines are generally too small for an extreme ramp-up, a fact magnified by the lack of competition. This isn’t about “underperforming” contractors, it’s simply about too few of them.

But there’s a far bigger problem here, as Mark Bowden has written about: America lacks the components for these weapons as much as it lacks the capacity to build them. And the biggest missing components are the rare earth minerals used in missile guidance and other essential systems.

According to the South China Morning Post, the U.S. has just two months of rare earth supply left for its military needs. Now, a Chinese-owned paper may be intentionally saying that, because China has a near-monopoly on the processing of rare earths, the raw materials of which are not that rare. But it certainly wouldn’t be surprising, since rare earths have been used as a tool for leverage in the endless U.S.-China trade wars. China has been turning export controls off and on over the past year, though they were up in January and February by about 20 percent relative to 2025. A high-level meeting will be held on rare earth exports next month.

The Trump administration has been buying stakes in domestic rare earth companies and mining operations, and they are generally aware of the need for resiliency and self-reliance, as the Biden administration was. But destroying the electric-vehicle sector in America, as the Trump administration did, eliminated an additional market for rare earths that might have sustained domestic producers. And the cronyism at work in these financing deals—the recent stake in USA Rare Earth is marred by the fact that Howard Lutnick’s former bank Cantor Fitzgerald is the company’s chief placement agent—suggests that the main goal is less restoring domestic supply chains and more nest-feathering.

Even if they were legitimate deals, rare earth mining and processing can take years to set up, with bombs dropping every day. This means the duration and intensity of our war effort is in some very real way at the discretion of China. That will almost certainly become a subject in upcoming trade negotiations, as the SCMP report indicates.

The U.S. invented rare earth magnets used in all these technologies. We gave away the industry and closed the last processing plant over 20 years ago. The business mantra of moving production to where it is cheapest has bitten us in the ass in countless industries over the years. Bombs are probably the least sympathetic one, but since they’ve become Trump’s go-to means of geopolitics—he’s bombed enough countries in his second term to fill more than two World Cup brackets—it’s worth noting how monopolization, financialization, globalization, and weakened industrial capacity are ruining that imperative, just as they have destroyed our self-sufficiency and pillars of our economy. And if we ever have a national-security threat to the country, it’s been made far more perilous by these forces, which have created unacceptable dependencies on foreign nations.

This was a choice, and like any other choice it can be reversed. But that would require dislodging our lords of capital.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 20:10

Meta Plans 20% Layoffs To Divert Capital To Data Centers

On Friday we noted that Meta has delayed the rollout of its latest AI model because it sucks - and may temporarily license superior models like Gemini to power the company's AI products. 

Now, Meta is reportedly mulling a massive new round of layoffs that could affect more than 20% of its workforce as it accelerates spending on AI data center buildouts. The move comes as other hyperscalers consider similar workforce restructurings to redirect capital flows toward AI infrastructure.

Reuters cited people familiar with the plans and said no final decision or timeline has been set for the restructuring. The report added that senior leaders have already been told to begin planning cuts.

Top executives have recently signaled the plans to other senior leaders at Meta and told them to begin planning how to pare back, two of the people said. The sources spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to disclose the cuts. -RTRS

The latest Bloomberg data show Meta's total workforce at the end of 2025 was about 79,000, meaning a 20% reduction would amount to nearly 16,000 workers. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has already been downsizing the workforce since the 2022-23 "year of efficiency" layoffs.

"This is speculative reporting about theoretical approaches," Meta spokesperson Andy Stone told the outlet.

Meta's labor restructuring suggests the insane Covid-era hiring binge is being aggressively unwound. The company cut 11,000 workers in November 2022, or about 13% of its workforce, and it would not be surprising if more cuts are still to come.

Meta plans to spend $600 billion on data centers by 2028 and recently announced it had acquired Moltbook, a social networking platform built for AI agents. Meta is also acquiring Chinese AI startup Manus for $2 billion.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that Oracle was planning to lay off thousands of workers as it spends aggressively on AI data center buildouts. Amazon confirmed in January that it would cut 16,000 jobs, while Block slashed its workforce by half last month.

Let's not forget this 2023 Goldman note...

so yeah, time to reread this from March 2023:
AI Will Lead To 300 Million Layoffs In The US And Europe https://t.co/iav1uCy07u pic.twitter.com/y5WjW2sPao

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 23, 2026

Last week, Palantir CEO Alex Karp delivered an apocalyptic warning to progressives, particularly "highly educated, often female voters, who vote mostly Democrat," stating that their influence over the economy and broader society will erode as technologies such as AI transfer power to working-class, right-leaning men.

We expect that, in the era of AI, much of the Covid hiring across big tech will be unwound. Those coders will be back to bartending.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2026 - 19:25