Individual Economists

Iran War Leads To Fluoride Shortages For Some US Water Utilities

Zero Hedge -

Iran War Leads To Fluoride Shortages For Some US Water Utilities

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Multiple water providers have lowered the amount of fluoride they add to water for millions of Americans, amid shortages stemming from the U.S.–Iran war.

The Baltimore City Department of Public Works said on April 13 that it is reducing the level of fluoride from 0.7 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 0.4 mg/L.

The move, officials said, was driven by disruptions to the supply chain caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A key Israeli supplier, specifically, has been struggling to meet demand.

“This is an adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Matthew Garbark, director of the Baltimore City Department of Public Works, said in a statement.

“We remain committed to providing safe, high-quality drinking water.”

Some 1.8 million people in and around Baltimore, the most populous city in Maryland, are served water by the city of Baltimore utility.

Fluoride, a mineral, is put in water as a preventative for tooth decay and cavities. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends adding 0.7 mg/L.

WSSC Water, which serves 1.9 million people in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in Maryland, said earlier in April it would be adding only 0.4 mg/L because of “nationwide supply chain disruptions.”

Hydrofluorosilicic acid, an important compound for water fluoridation, has been hard to source amid the war, including from a supplier in Israel, the utility said. Israel is one of the world’s top exporters of fluorosilicic acid, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the United States is among the world’s top five importers of the product.

“This is a temporary adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Ben Thompson, WSSC Water’s director of production, said in a statement.

“We remain committed to maintaining safe, high-quality drinking water and will restore optimal fluoride levels as soon as supply conditions stabilize.”

In Pennsylvania, the borough of Lititz told its water customers in March that it had to halt fluoridation for a couple of weeks because of supply issues.

As the conflict continues, “there will likely be additional stressors placed on the supply chain, leading to shortages in additional communities,” said Dan Hartnett, chief policy officer for the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies.

A few months’ drop in fluoride levels is probably not a cause for concern for most people, said Dr. Scott Tomar, an American Dental Association community water fluoridation expert. Lower levels can have an impact over the span of years, he said.

Tomar said younger children would be the first to experience tooth decay, because the fluoride strengthens enamel as their teeth are developing and once they have grown in.

Some states and municipalities have in recent months completely stopped water fluoridation, as officials have pointed to emerging data such as a 2024 report from the National Institutes of Health that concluded with moderate confidence that higher levels of fluoride exposure were linked to decreases in children’s IQ scores.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said that fluoride from toothpaste is sufficient to keep teeth strong.

The Environmental Protection Agency said in January that it would assess the safety of adding fluoride to water.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 14:00

Iran Used Chinese Spy Satellite To Target US Bases During War, Outraged Beijing Denies

Zero Hedge -

Iran Used Chinese Spy Satellite To Target US Bases During War, Outraged Beijing Denies

Iran quietly secured a Chinese spy satellite in late 2024 and used it to track US military bases across the Middle East during the current war, the Financial Times has newly - an allegation Beijing has flatly and angrily denied.

The TEE-01B satellite, built and launched by Chinese firm Earth Eye Co, was allegedly taken over by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Aerospace Force after launch from China, according to the report, which cites leaked Iranian military documents. Of course, the usual caveats must apply when it comes to major Western MSM reporting on an emerging 'axis of evil' doing all things anti-America: Russia, China, Iran (and certainly South Korea could soon be thrown in the mix given its pro-Moscow role in the Ukraine war). 

"Recently, some forces have been keen on fabricating rumors and maliciously associating them to China," according to the official statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. In the meantime, Earth Eye Co has not commented.

Further, the Chinese embassy in Washington told the Financial Times: "We firmly oppose relevant parties spreading speculative and insinuative disinformation against China." But we should note that this wasn't exactly a full-on denial of the charge, and the embassy would likely not have a full picture of what the highest echelons of Chinese intelligence is up to at any given moment in Beijing.

Per the FT report, Iranian commanders tasked the satellite with monitoring key US military sites, using time-stamped coordinate lists, satellite imagery, and orbital analysis. The Financial Times said the images were captured in March, before and after drone and missile strikes on those locations. 

As part of the arrangement, the IRGC gained access to commercial ground stations run by Emposat, a Beijing-based satellite control and data provider with a network spanning Asia, Latin America, and beyond.

One surprising development within the first month of Trump's Operation Epic Fury was that Iran's ballistic missiles were able to reach very precise locations all the way over in Jordan, where US bases were pummeled, amid an alarming trend where billions of dollars in regional American air defenses were quickly taken out. Of course, sensitive Israeli military and energy sites were also hit, especially in Haifa and Tel Aviv. Reuters has also picked up on the FT report Wednesday, writing:

According to the report, the satellite also monitored Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and locations close to the US Fifth Fleet naval base in Manama, Bahrain, and Erbil airport, Iraq, around the time of IRGC-claimed attacks on facilities in those areas.

US outposts in northern Iraqi Kurdistan have also been repeatedly hit by Iranian drones, or at times drones and projectiles possibly sent by local Tehran-aligned paramilitary forces.

As for more specifics cited in the original FT report, the satellite was described has having captured images of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 13, 14, and 15.

There's some credibility to this, given that on March 14, Trump confirmed that very expensive US surveillance aircraft at the base had been hit. "Four of the five had ⁠virtually no damage, and ​are already back in service. One ​had slightly more damage, but will be in the air shortly," ​Trump had written at the time ​on Truth Social.

Still, Trump is trying to 'play nice' with Beijing - even amid such public and damning allegations - ahead of his planned mid-May visit, saying in a Wednesday Truth Social post he asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping not to supply weapons to Iran, and Xi replied he was not doing so. "I had heard that China’s giving weapons to, I mean - you’re seeing it all over the place - to Iran." This was in a newly published Fox Business interview.

FT produced the following graphic as part of its report:

"And I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that." Major media outlets previously reported that US intelligence indicated China was preparing to ship advanced weaponry to Iran. Beijing's public rejection of the "baseless smear" - as the Foreign Minister called it - has indeed been swift and vehement.

Trump has also newly explained on Truth Social that China is "very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz" - this even though in many cases it is China bound tankers being blocked and turned back by the US naval armada. "This situation will never happen again," Trump added. He is set to meet with Xi in Beijing on May 14-15. On this he wrote that "President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are going working together smartly, and very well!" But then Trump says "But remember, we are very good at fighting, if we have to."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 13:25

Watch: Vance Pledges Probe Into Epstein 'Pizza' And 'Grape Soda' References

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Vance Pledges Probe Into Epstein 'Pizza' And 'Grape Soda' References

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Vice President JD Vance has publicly committed to investigating references in the Jeffrey Epstein files that he says evoked the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, citing emails mentioning “pizzas or grape sodas” in odd contexts.

His remarks come as Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche doubled down on the Department of Justice’s position that every relevant document has already been released, leaving critics to question whether the full truth about Epstein’s network will ever see daylight.

In remarks at a Turning Point USA event, Vance described reviewing the files and encountering an email that stood out.

“One person sent an e-mail to Jeffrey Epstein saying oh they were some really nice like pizzas or grape sodas or something like that,” he recalled. “And I remember it sounding like the Pizzagate conspiracy theory.”

His reaction was direct: “We should absolutely investigate.”

Vance added that he plans to follow up “to see whether we’ve investigated that person because we should. We absolutely should when you see evidence of sexual assault sexual misconduct regardless of who the powerful not fact.”

The comments have reignited scrutiny over language in the Epstein files that some have long argued resembles coded references first highlighted in 2016. Those earlier claims, known as Pizzagate, originated from WikiLeaks releases of John Podesta’s emails that contained repeated, seemingly out-of-context mentions of pizza alongside other odd terms.

Recent Epstein document dumps have revived the debate, with analysts pointing to hundreds of “pizza” references that do not appear to describe food.

Mike Benz, in analysis of the newer files, noted: “In these new files, you’ll see a lot of people talking about PIZZA in a way that (seems like a code), it’s kind of impossible.”

A separate development underscores the tension. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche appeared on Fox News and doubled down on declaring the Epstein files exhausted.

“We have released everything. We reviewed six million pieces of paper!” Blanche stated, adding “We are not sitting on a single piece of paper to be released.”

He insisted that if anything new surfaces it would be made public, but emphasized the DOJ’s review covered millions of pages unrelated to Epstein and that Congress could access unredacted materials if lawmakers chose to examine them.

ernity.news/wp-includes/js/wp-embed.min.js

The Pizzagate theory first gained traction in late 2016 after WikiLeaks published thousands of emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta. Researchers flagged phrases like “pizza” and “hot dogs” appearing in contexts that seemed unrelated to meals—patterns that echoed an FBI intelligence bulletin on pedophile code words, where “pizza” was listed as slang for girl and “hot dog” for boy. Comet Ping Pong, a Washington, D.C. pizzeria, became the focal point after its owner’s Instagram posts and the restaurant’s alleged basement (which does not exist) fueled speculation of a child-sex ring operating out of the basement.

While mainstream outlets quickly labeled the theory a hoax, the Epstein files have now surfaced hundreds of similar “pizza” mentions. Multiple reports note exchanges involving Epstein’s urologist, Dr. Harry Fisch, that pair “pizza and grape soda” with references to erectile-dysfunction medication in ways that read as cryptic to outsiders. One 2018 message reads: “lets go for pizza and grape soda again. No one else can understand. Go kno.” Another simply states “Pizza and grape soda[.] Nough said.”

Debunkers argue these are innocent food references or jokes, yet many counter that the volume and context—especially when layered atop Epstein’s documented trafficking network—demand investigation rather than dismissal.

This latest flare-up fits a pattern of incremental disclosures followed by official assurances that the matter is closed. Vance’s willingness to revisit the “Pizzagate” framing, however tentatively, marks a rare high-level acknowledgment that some of the file language warrants a second look.

The Epstein saga has repeatedly exposed fractures between what officials claim has been fully disclosed and what the public believes remains concealed. Whether Vance’s pledged follow-up produces meaningful accountability—or joins the growing list of unfulfilled promises—will test whether transparency on elite networks is still possible. For now, the strange language in the files keeps the questions alive, and the public’s demand for answers shows no sign of fading.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

* * * Click. Plant. Don't trust your brother.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:50

Foggy, Foggy War

Zero Hedge -

Foggy, Foggy War

By Michael Every of Rabobank

With US stocks up, the Nasdaq with its longest winning streak since 2021, and screen oil down for a second day in a row, markets continue to price the starkly binary physical outcomes smack in front of us on the side that’s full of stardust.

The IMF just warned of a potential world recession ahead if Hormuz stays shut. Its latest three global growth scenarios are ‘weaker’, ‘worse’ and ‘severe’ - “because markets”, and politics, the Fund chose the most benign as its base case, even as “downside risks are clearly very elevated.” That’s as Spain, for example, just released 4 of their 90 days of strategic oil reserves, with another 8 to follow. While that leaves 78, even if Hormuz reopened tomorrow, it would take at least 60 and possibly as many as 150 days before normal oil flows could be restored, according to IEA. Imagine driving home in a convoy through a blazing desert in an air-conditioned car knowing you all have 50 miles of fuel in the tank, and the next station is 30 miles away… and then hearing on the radio that it could be shut, and the following one is at least 60 miles away. That’s where much of the world economy stands now – and markets are opting to pump up the radio and aircon and say, ‘The next station will be open and I want a slushy.’

Most governments are doing the kind of pumping oil wells aren’t: 

Provided the war ends soon, those kinds of policies could cushion the economy: but across all schools of economic thought, textbooks are clear about what demand-side boosts into structural supply-side shocks do – leave you stuffed.

So, to the war. CENTCOM says no ships passed the Iran blockade in the first 24 hours. Moreover, the US Treasury says is not renewing its temporary easing of Iran oil sanctions and has sent notices to China and Hong Kong asking for help in enforcement. The US is clearly escalating hard vs Iran despite messages pinging yesterday that a sanctioned Chinese vessel, Starry Rich, had transited Hormuz, ignoring IF an interception was to be made, it would be in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea; then clarified the vessel was carrying methanol from the UAE, not fuel from Iran, so wasn’t in scope; then the ship turned round anyway. Some press today claims the Saudis, who’ve been pushing the US to finish the job vs. Iran, are now pressuring it to ease the blockade in fear of a Red Sea counter-blockade that hasn’t taken place yet: more fog?

Yes, there will be more US-Iran talks in Pakistan, possibly tomorrow, which is the lodestar market bulls are guided by. As the Telegraph notes, this seems to be the one place that Iran’s battered leadership can physically meet without being killed: but what will they say that’s different from the last rejection of US demands on uranium, nuclear weapons, missiles, proxies, and Hormuz? Vice President Vance has reiterated Trump wants a “grand bargain” with Iran, not “a small deal,” and one that sees it abandon its nuclear ambitions. Trump has added that he wasn’t happy with the proposed 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment offered in Pakistan and wants a permanent end to the matter. Israel is also stating that the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium is a “threshold condition” for it ending its Iran campaign – though the head of Mossad chief has additionally declared, “Our mission isn’t over until regime falls.”

The question is perhaps if any grand bargain is only US-Iran, or will involve others, as top Russian and Chinese envoys meet in Beijing to discuss Iran, Ukraine, and Taiwan. Yet showing how complex this gets as our global crises conflate, Ukraine, now providing anti-drone tech to the GCC, which aids Israel, has asked Jerusalem to detain a Russian ship carrying stolen grain that just docked in Haifa, which will infuriate Moscow. The US is elsewhere suggesting Cuba is complicit in helping Russia fight Ukraine, both countries being flashpoints between DC and Moscow. Isolated, Europe is drawing up plans for keeping Hormuz open once the war is over, which, beyond any aid with minesweeping, logically won’t be needed: if the war is over, energy will flow. The EU proposal is notably modelled on its Red Sea Aspides force, which failed to reopen it to normal trade flows.

On a positive note, if assuming ‘escalate to deescalate’, Israeli and Lebanese envoys just held an historic summit in the US to discuss a peace deal. As the Israelis put it, “Lebanon wants to be liberated from (Iran-backed) Hezbollah… we discovered today that we’re on the same side of the equation.” By contrast, France, with its Sykes-Picot-logical focus on Lebanon, insists Hezbollah has to be included in these talks aimed at removing it, so has been deliberately excluded from them.

On exclusion, after attacking the Pope, Trump has now done the same to Italian PM Meloni for “lacking courage”: the EU will need that and more fiscal spending again given the Wall Street Journal report it’s accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case Trump pulls out – or waters his commitment down: “Article 5, Shmarticle 5.” Militarily, 5% of GDP would need to be spent on defense a lot sooner than the 2035 planned if so, and the Journal notes Europe would need to reinstitute a draft in order to get the necessary personnel. Yet in terms of providing muscle for any Rules-Based Order 2.0 without the US, Europe’s primary military power, France, just had to scale back its participation in key Balikatan naval exercises in the Philippines to a mere 15 participants.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times warns of a ‘China shock 2.0’, this time with a flood of high-tech goods “that will change the world” - or at least deindustrialize other parts of it. Bloomberg matches that with a report underlining that India’s plans to develop its own manufacturing base are hamstrung by China’s controls over the critical tech supply chain within that sector. The Nikkei Asia argues China is snapping up US chip tools via Southeast Asia sources (in the same way that many Chinese exports to the US are being transshipped via third parties), which from a neo-mercantilist perspective again makes the case for a global economy fragmented into geopolitical trade blocs.

That reality is one of the reasons I’ve argued lies behind this Iran war, both in terms of control of oil and the related IMEC trade corridor; and it’s why escalation will continue until the economic pain is so great that one side submits.

Yet will the unfolding slow-motion catastrophe in the background get key global players to cooperate before it’s too late? Only time will tell; and it’s a binary outcome; and while your car journey as you ponder this may be comfortable for now, the fuel tank is still the fuel tank, and the blazing desert is still the blazing desert. And as I type that, I just heard the following play on my radio:

“Now I understand; What you tried to say to me; And how you suffered for your sanity; And how you tried to set them free; They would not listen, they did not know how; Perhaps they'll listen now.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:15

Eos Energy Soars As Investors Focus On Zinc Batteries And AI-Driven Demand

Zero Hedge -

Eos Energy Soars As Investors Focus On Zinc Batteries And AI-Driven Demand

Eos Energy Enterprises’ stock jumped over 60% in the last few days as investor enthusiasm grew around its scaling production and role in powering AI-driven infrastructure demand, according to the International Business Times.

The company designs, develops, manufactures, and markets energy storage solutions for utility-scale, microgrid, and commercial and industrial applications in the United States. The stock surge builds on earlier momentum after the company reported strong preliminary Q1 2026 revenue of $56–$57 million. Growth was fueled by higher shipments, improved output, and better manufacturing efficiency at its Pennsylvania facility, signaling progress in ramping up its second production line.

This positive update helped ease concerns from earlier setbacks, including missed 2025 revenue guidance and ongoing class-action lawsuits tied to production projections. While legal risks remain, recent operational gains have renewed investor confidence.

IBT writes that Eos is positioning itself to meet rising electricity demand from AI and data centers, highlighted by a new partnership aimed at rapidly deploying large-scale power solutions. Its zinc-based batteries—seen as safer, cheaper, and more domestically sourced than lithium alternatives—are gaining attention as utilities and tech firms seek reliable energy storage.

Looking ahead, the company expects 2026 revenue between $300 million and $400 million, with improving margins as production scales. A $701 million backlog supports future growth, though profitability, cash needs, and execution risks remain concerns.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic and broader market optimism and policy support for U.S.-based energy solutions have also contributed to the stock’s recent strength.

Overall, Eos appears to be at a turning point. Continued manufacturing progress and successful contract wins could solidify its position in the energy storage sector—but uncertainty and risk remain part of the story.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:00

BofA Sees Customer Gas Spending Jump 16%, But Discretionary Spending Holds Up

Zero Hedge -

BofA Sees Customer Gas Spending Jump 16%, But Discretionary Spending Holds Up

The national average for 87-octane gasoline has remained above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for two straight weeks after the largest monthly jump in AAA data going back two decades. The fuel shock has Wall Street analysts focused on whether surging pump prices will begin crowding out discretionary spending.

Bank of America CFO Alastair Borthwick told analysts on a conference call earlier today that the fuel shock at the pump has not undermined overall consumer strength so far, though that could change if the Hormuz chokepoint is not resolved in the near term, according to Bloomberg. 

The BofA presentation Alastair cited showed that, for the first quarter, consumer spending at the pump was up 3%. For March, gas spending soared 16%. However, no meaningful spending pullbacks were visible elsewhere: Entertainment, travel, and retail spending all remained healthy, with entertainment spending rising 12% in the quarter.

BofA has joined a number of other firms, including Chime Financial, in disclosing gas-cost impacts on their customers. Chime's CFO warned earlier this month that clients spent 25% more on fuel in March compared with the prior month.

Ally Financial, Capital One Financial, and American Express are set to report this week and will likely provide more color on fuel-shock impacts on their customers.

AAA data showed that the national average for 87-octane gasoline has hovered above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for the last two weeks.

On the economy, Goldman analyst Jessica Rindels told clients on Sunday how the U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its seventh week, is set to produce a mild stagflation shock, though not on the scale of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In our latest U.S.-Iran conflict report (read here), President Trump stated the war is "very close to over," with another round of peace talks scheduled for this week. A Wall Street report cited U.S. officials overnight as saying that more than 20 vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 11:45

OpenAI's Stratospheric Valuation Draws Investor Scrutiny As It Scrambles To Capture Enterprise Market

Zero Hedge -

OpenAI's Stratospheric Valuation Draws Investor Scrutiny As It Scrambles To Capture Enterprise Market

OpenAI, fresh off the largest private fundraising round in history, is facing mounting questions from some of its own backers over its $852 billion valuation and a whiplash-inducing pivot in strategy that prioritizes the higher-margin enterprise market at the expense of its consumer crown jewel - all because Anthropic is starting to drink their milkshake with enterprise contracts. 

The company raised $122 billion last month from Silicon Valley and global capital - including SoftBank, Amazon, Nvidia, Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital and Thrive Capital. Yet even as Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar hailed the oversubscribed deal as proof of “strong conviction” in the company’s direction, early investors are voicing skepticism. One told the Financial Times the pivot feels unfocused: “You have ChatGPT, a 1 billion-user business growing 50-100% a year - what are you doing talking about enterprise and code?”

Friar disagrees. "The suggestion that investors are not supportive of our strategy defies the facts," she said. "Our . . . raise, the largest in history, was oversubscribed, completed in record time and backed by a broad set of global investors, reflecting strong conviction in both our direction, current business momentum and long-term value."

The repositioning has indeed been swift and, to critics, symptomatic of the kind of strategic whiplash that often precedes trouble in hype-driven sectors. In December Chief Executive Sam Altman issued a "code red" urging staff to refocus on core business. High-profile consumer experiments have been quietly euthanized: the video-generation service Sora was shuttered, killing a planned $1 billion investment from Disney; an “adult” chatbot was mothballed; parts of the ambitious Stargate data-center project were ditched; and a $100 billion Nvidia deal was substantially scaled back. Even a recent “low hundreds of millions” acquisition of the tech talk show TBPN drew internal eye-rolling from investors who called it a distraction.

"I don’t get it frankly, it doesn’t make any sense to me," one investor told FT. "It’s a distraction and it irks me."

The new gospel is enterprise. OpenAI is reallocating computing resources toward its Codex coding tool, which insiders say could eventually eclipse ChatGPT in priority as the company chases nontechnical business users. Headcount is set to nearly double to 8,000 by year-end. Roughly half of revenue is expected to come from corporate customers, up from about 40% today. A new permanent office in London is in the works to anchor the largest research hub outside the U.S. The message from the C-suite: the market for corporate AI tools is “ours to win.”

However, fresh data from Morgan Stanley’s 1Q26 CIO Survey (fielded February 3–March 10 among 100 US and European CIOs - available to pro subs here) offers some early empirical support for the enterprise pivot - while also highlighting just how steep the climb is. Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning has cemented its position as the clear #1 CIO priority (17.7% of respondents named it a top-three area, up from 16.3% in 4Q25), with 39% now calling it their single highest priority. Yet when CIOs were asked which vendors are poised to capture the largest incremental share of GenAI spending, Microsoft dominated both the one-year and three-year outlooks by a wide margin. OpenAI still ranked solidly inside the top tier - behind Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Salesforce and ServiceNow - and was also cited as a preferred vendor for building custom AI applications today and three years out.

The survey underscores the broader reality: overall 2026 IT budgets are growing only modestly at +3.7%, with Software the sole category expected to accelerate (+4.1%). Hyperscalers (led overwhelmingly by Microsoft via Azure OpenAI Service, Copilot, and its massive existing enterprise footprint) remain the dominant wallet-share winners in AI and cloud. AI labs and application vendors, including OpenAI, are making incremental gains on top of that foundation.

Anthropic's Ascent

Rival Anthropic is making that claim harder to swallow. Founded by ex-OpenAI talent and led by Dario Amodei, the Claude maker has seen annualized revenue surge to $30 billion by the end of March from $9 billion at the close of 2025, fueled by demand for its coding and cybersecurity offerings. Secondary markets are now pricing Anthropic ahead of OpenAI for the first time. The startup has fielded multiple offers that could value it at $800 billion or higher - more than double its February tender valuation - though it has so far resisted. One investor who backs both companies noted that underwriting OpenAI’s latest round required assuming an IPO valuation north of $1.2 trillion.

Meanwhile, Anthropic has shrugged off a major national-security black eye that appears to have served as great marketing, after the Pentagon formally designated the company a “supply chain risk” to U.S. national security - the first time such a label, historically reserved for foreign adversaries like Huawei or Kaspersky, has ever been applied to a major American AI firm. The unprecedented move followed a bitter contract standoff in which Anthropic refused to strip safety guardrails from Claude that blocked its use for mass domestic surveillance or lethal autonomous weapons. Anthropic sued immediately, calling the designation retaliatory; courts have issued temporary blocks in some venues while litigation continues. Yet, this government smackdown has had no effect on private-market enthusiasm.

The two firms remain locked in a brutal arms race, each hemorrhaging billions annually on compute. OpenAI boasts a formidable infrastructure edge - 8 gigawatts secured now, targeting 30 gigawatts by 2030 -and claims it can simply serve a slightly inferior model if needed. Anthropic, by contrast, has cited outages and power constraints while promising restraint on further expansion. OpenAI’s new chief revenue officer, Denise Dresser, has accused Anthropic of overstating revenue by roughly $8 billion via cloud-partner gross-ups, though both sides insist they follow standard accounting.

Of course, there's an underlying catch: the lofty valuations rest on the assumption that enterprises will eventually pay up for these tools in volume. Yet a telling data point from the political arena suggests institutional buyers remain skittish. Republican campaigns are leaning into AI for messaging and voter targeting ahead of the 2026 midterms. The Democratic National Committee, however, has explicitly banned staff from using either ChatGPT or Claude, citing data-privacy and security risks. 

OpenAI executives insist the repositioning towards enterprise is simply the necessary maturation of a company that has already reinvented itself multiple times. The massive war chest, they argue, provides “max flexibility” and “max optionality.” But with both startups still deeply unprofitable, compute burn rates that would make traditional tech CFOs blanch, and secondary-market momentum tilting toward the more focused rival, the narrative is shifting. What began as a consumer phenomenon is now a high-stakes bet that enterprise dollars will arrive fast enough—and in sufficient volume—to justify valuations that, to skeptics, increasingly look detached from today’s economics.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 11:20

Bank of America Jumps On Record Equity Trading Revenue, Net Interest Income Forecast Increase, Offset By FICC Miss

Zero Hedge -

Bank of America Jumps On Record Equity Trading Revenue, Net Interest Income Forecast Increase, Offset By FICC Miss

Following stellar equity trading results from Goldman and JPMorgan, this morning Bank of America reported that its traders also pulled in the business’s highest quarterly revenue in more than a decade, riding a wave of volatility that pushed the firm’s stock-trading desk to an all-time record. Bank of America said Q1 profit rose 17% from a year earlier, while net income came in at $8.58 billion. That amounted to $1.11 a share, above analyst estimates of $1.01. Revenue was 7% higher at $30.27 billion, driven by solid net interest income, sales and trading and investment banking fees. 

Revenue from equity trading climbed 30% to $2.8 billion in the first quarter, beating expectations, while fixed-income trading, which fell short of a consensus of analyst estimates, rose less than 1% to $3.5 billion, similar to Goldman's FICC miss. Bank have benetted from a volatile quarter, when the Iran war sent oil prices surging and concerns about artificial intelligence and private credit whipsawed stocks. Trading desks were already on a roll since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election, as his policy moves often spurred reactions across stocks, commodities and rates. The total trading haul helped push revenue to $30.3BN, above the $29.92BN consensus estimate, while adjusted EPS rose 25% to $1.11 a share, also beating the $1.01 analyst estimate. Overall, Bank of America’s net income was up 17.3% to $8.16 billion.

Here are the Q1 highlights

  • EPS $1.11, beating ests of $1.01
  • Revenue net of interest expense $30.27 billion, beating estimates of $28.63 billion
    • Trading revenue excluding DVA $6.32 billion, estimate $6.34 billion
      • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.83 billion, beating estimate $2.51 billion
      • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $3.50 billion, missing estimate $3.78 billion
  • Net interest income FTE $15.91 billion
  • Wealth & investment management total revenue $6.71 billion, beating estimate $6.59 billion

Last month, BofA Co-President Dean Athanasia said that he was feeling good about net interest income, expecting growth of at least 7%. Well, the final number was even stronger, and the bank reported NII of $15.7 billion, up 9% from the first quarter of 2025 (more below). Just as importantly, BofA raised its full-year NII forecast, now expecting it to grow 6%–8%, up from previous estimates of 5%–7%, driven by strong first-quarter performance, and suggesting the Fed's rate cuts won't negatively impact the bank.

Balance sheet metrics were also solid

  • Return on average equity 12%, estimate 10.8%
  • Return on average assets 0.99%, estimate 0.92%
  • Return on average tangible common equity 16%, estimate 14.5%
  • Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in, advanced approach 12.5%, estimate 12.7%
  • Standardized CET1 ratio 11.2%, estimate 11.4%

Turning to asset quality, aside from some concerns about Private Credit (see below), the results were solid with BofA's net charge-offs down 3% to $1.41 billion, below the estimate of $1.42 billion while the provision for credit losses also dropped to $1.34 billion, and also below estimates of $1.5 billion, and down $143MM YoY. As BBG notes, the number "came in way below estimates, offsetting larger-than-expected numbers for some of its peers. Overall, the combined tally is tracking lower than feared, helping soothe concerns about private-credit contagion into financials.” BofA also announced a net reserve release of $72MM in 1Q26 vs. net reserve build of $28MM in 1Q25 and $21MM in 4Q25. Meanwhile, the allowance for loan and lease losses of $13.1B represented 1.09% of total loans and leases. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) of $5.8B decreased $0.3B from 1Q25, and were flat to 4Q25, as higher consumer NPLs, driven by residential mortgage relief extended for borrowers impacted by 2025 California wildfires, were mostly offset by lower commercial NPLs. 

In its earnings presentation, BofA highlighted solid growth across most segments...

... and noted that every segment contributed to YoY growth.

Looking at the bank's high margin trading businesses, results here were stellar in equities, and subpar in credit. Total revenue ex net DVA of $7.1B increased 8% from 1Q25, driven by higher sales and trading revenue, partially offset by the absence of gains related to leveraged finance positions in 1Q25. Sales and trading revenue of $6.4B increased 13% from 1Q25; excluding net DVA, up 12%

  • Revenue net of interest expense $30.27 billion, beating estimates of $28.63 billion
    • Trading revenue excluding DVA $6.32 billion, estimate $6.34 billion
      • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA rose 20% to $2.83 billion, beating estimate $2.51 billion
      • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA rose 2% to  $3.50 billion, missing estimate $3.78 billion

As an aside, noninterest expense of $4.4B increased 15% vs. 1Q25, driven by higher revenue-related expenses and investments in the business, including people and technology. Lastly, average Q1 VaR tumbled to just $47MM in 1Q26 as even trading desks retrenched. 

Momentum in markets was coupled with a comeback in dealmaking: this boosted investment-banking revenue to $1.89 billion, above the  average estimate of $1.79 billion. Fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions rose to $553 million. The bank’s equity-capital markets business generated $353 million in revenue, while debt-underwriting revenue totaled $986 million, with both beating estimates. Analysts had expected revenue of $312 million and $963 million, respectively. 

The second-largest US bank said that net interest income, a key source of revenue for the company, rose 9% to $15.7 billion. Analysts had expected a 6.5% increase for NII, the revenue collected from loan payments minus what depositors are paid. Net Interest Yield dropped from 2.08% to 2.07% as a result of declining interest rates. 

The company’s loan balances rose 8.5% to $1.21 trillion at the end of the first quarter, above analysts’ estimates of $1.19 trillion. Lending has been a key focus for investors, with interest rates holding steady.

Bank of America’s noninterest expenses were up 4.3% to $18.5 billion from a year earlier. Charges and costs are another focal point for investors, with persistent inflation putting pressure on spending. Analysts had expected a 4% increase to $18.47 billion.

Earlier in the week, JPMorgan and Citigroup reported earnings that were boosted by record trading results. Wall Street banks have also been tallying and detailing their exposure to the private-credit industry, with many investors on edge over valuations and the growing impact of artificial intelligence.

Commenting on the state of the US consumer, CEO Brian Moynihan said consumer spending points to a “resilient American economy", while also warning of risks. Earlier, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said "the U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy." Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf: “While markets have been volatile, we still see continued resiliency in the underlying economy and the financial health of the consumers and businesses we serve remains strong, though the impact of higher oil prices will likely take some time to materialize."

Turning to the number one topic in banking these days, Bank of America disclosed $20 billion of private credit exposure, noting that typical advance rates on private credit and broadly syndicated loans are between 70% to 75%. The company said the underlying collateral of those loans are showing “strong” earnings and are often senior in the credit stack. BofA also noted that it has less than $2 billion in lending to BDC companies which have been the epicenter of the private credit meltdown. 

Bank of America’s results also offered a look at how US consumers fared during the first three months of the year with investors eager to hear details on the national economy from bank executives whose firms cater to America's consumers and businesses. The bank noted that total credit and debit-card spending was up 6% in the first quarter, while consumers are facing pressure from higher gas prices: spending on gas was up 16% in March from a year earlier.

“We remain watchful of evolving risks,” CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement. “However, we saw healthy client activity, including solid consumer spending and stable asset quality, indicating a resilient American economy.” Earlier this week, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo also said consumer spending was holding up despite surging gas prices.

Shares of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, rose about 4% to $55 in early trading Wednesday, a two month high. They’ve gained 45% in the 12 months through Tuesday, outpacing the 9.8% increase in the S&P 500 Financials Index.

The full BofA Q1 presentation is below (pdf link)

The Presentation Materials_1Q26 by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 10:24

US Prosecutors Make Surprise Visit To Fed HQ Renovation Project

Zero Hedge -

US Prosecutors Make Surprise Visit To Fed HQ Renovation Project

Federal prosecutors on Tuesday made a surprise visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters building that's undergoing a $2.5 billion renovation, as they continue to investigate whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell lied to Congress about the cost and scope of the project. Construction workers told the prosecutors they couldn't come on the site without prior authorization, the Wall Street Journal reported. Instead, they were referred to the Fed's lawyers to coordinate a return visit.  

A worker at a construction gate outside the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building in July 2025 (Jonathan Ernst, Reuters via USA Today)

The provocative move is the latest chapter in a months-long legal drama over the enormously expensive renovation of two Fed office buildings built in the 1930s, and whether Powell made false statements about the project in a congressional hearing last June. Specifically, Powell disputed media reports and accusations from administration officials and congressional Republicans that the project had extravagant design features, such as a VIP dining room, premium marble, water features and a rooftop terrace garden. 

Last year, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought reported that the $2.5 billion cost was $700 million over budget. President Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell for not pushing interest even lower than they are, was quick to condemn the Fed director for the steep price of the project. “When you spend $2.5 billion on, really, a renovation, I think it’s really disgraceful,” he said last year. More recently, he said the lead contractor "is probably one of the richest men in the country right now."

The ongoing drama had a moment of comic relief in July, when Trump joined Powell in touring the construction site with reporters tagging along: 

Last month, US District Judge James Boasberg threw out two subpoenas that federal prosecutors had issued to the Fed. “There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will,” wrote Boasberg, an Obama appointee. Tuesday's surprise visit to the construction zone signals the DOJ's dedication to chasing the case. 

An excavator claws the earth beneath the Fed's 1951 Constitution Ave building in July 2025 (Reuters via USA Today)

“Any construction project that has cost overruns of almost 80 percent over the original construction budget deserves some serious review,” US Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro told the Journal on Tuesday. “And these people are in charge of monetary policy in the United States?” Pirro, a long-time Trump ally, gave a green light to the investigation in November. 

Powell’s term as chair will expire on May 15, though his underlying seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors doesn’t end until 2028. In January, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace him, but his Senate confirmation is being held up by Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who said he won't vote to advance Warsh's nomination until the DOJ investigation of Powell and the Fed is complete. Powell has said he'll stay on as chair until his successor is confirmed. Fed chairs usually give up their Board of Governors seat after leaving the top job, but Powell has said he will make a decision on that "based on what I think is best for our institution and the people we serve.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 10:05

Shoe Brand Allbirds Pivots To AI, Changes Name To NewBird AI, Stock Rips More Than 360%

Zero Hedge -

Shoe Brand Allbirds Pivots To AI, Changes Name To NewBird AI, Stock Rips More Than 360%

Just when you thought you’d seen the last of the AI pivot idiocy…

Allbirds (yes, the wool sneaker people) is mooning—up as much as 360%—after announcing it’s ditching shoes and pivoting to, of course, AI. This comes just weeks after agreeing to sell off its brand and footwear business for $39 million, according to Sherwood News.

The plan? Rebrand as “NewBird AI,” raise $50 million, and reinvent itself as a GPU-as-a-Service / AI cloud company. Translation: buy a bunch of high-powered GPUs and rent them out to companies desperate for AI compute. The company's press release out Wednesday morning said: "Following its prior announcement that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell the Allbirds brand and footwear assets to American Exchange Group, which intends to continue to build on Allbirds’ legacy and deliver compelling products to Allbirds’ customers, Allbirds, Inc. today announced the execution of a definitive agreement with an institutional investor for a $50 million convertible financing facility."

It continues: "The Facility, which is expected to close during the second quarter of 2026, will enable the Company to pivot its business to AI compute infrastructure, with a long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider. In connection with this pivot, the Company anticipates changing its name to “NewBird AI.”"

"NewBird AI expects to use initial capital from the Facility to acquire high-performance GPU assets, which will be deployed to serve customers requiring dedicated access to AI compute capacity. NewBird AI’s long-term vision is to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider. Over time, the Company intends to grow its neocloud platform by expanding its compute and service offerings, deepening partnerships with operators and customers, and evaluating strategic M&A opportunities," the release continues.

It adds:

The rise of AI development and adoption has created unprecedented structural demand for specialized, high-performance compute that the market is struggling to meet. Global enterprise spending on AI services and data center investment are on the rise. At the same time, GPU procurement lead times are increasing for high-end hardware, North American data center vacancy rates have reached historic lows, and market-wide compute capacity coming online through mid-2026 is already fully committed. The result is a market where enterprises, AI developers, and research organizations are unable to secure the compute resources they need to build, train and run AI at scale.

NewBird AI is being built to help close that gap. The Company will initially seek to acquire high-performance, low-latency AI compute hardware and provide access under long-term lease arrangements, meeting customer demand that spot markets and hyperscalers are unable to reliably service.

In the process, we're guessing they’ll also scrub references to their environmental mission—because nothing says sustainability like a rack of energy-hungry GPUs.

The pitch is that insatiable AI demand will carry them back toward their former $4 billion valuation.

At this rate, we'll be back to Chamath SPACs and gamma squeezes just like the good ole' days of Covid in just weeks. Who knew that apparently, selling compute to tech execs is the new, more durable version of selling them “eco-friendly” sneakers?

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 09:45

Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?

Zero Hedge -

Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?

Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar.”

She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar.

Instead, RealInvestmentAdvice.com points out that she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in the oil trade.

The 75-year-old petrodollar system rests on oil being priced and traded in dollars, which keeps the dollar prominent in all global trade.

China has been undermining the petrodollar through yuan settlement systems and by deepening its ties with some Arab nations.

Rather than Iran being a “perfect storm” weakening the petrodollar, as some argue, Choyleva sees American military engagement in Iran as supportive of the dollar. 

Simply, control the flow of oil, and you control the currency it’s traded in.

Most Arab nations back the US campaign against Iran. Importantly, “the security commitment was tested; it held.”

This reinforced the security-for-oil-pricing bargain that underpins the petrodollar system.

The removal of Venezuelan President Maduro and influence over Venezuelan oil accomplishes similar goals.

If the US controls Western Hemisphere oil reserves, it would command more oil than OPEC combined, thus providing enormous leverage for keeping oil priced in dollars.

The author sees two scenarios for how the war ends.

First, an agreement that gives the U.S. influence over Iranian oil flows.

Second, US forces seize Kharg Island and police the Strait of Hormuz.

In her words, controlling “the choke point through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows.”

Either way, both events lead to more dollar-based oil trades, not less.

She concludes that "those who conclude that the petrodollar is already in its death throes are reading the map upside down. The storm is real. The dollar is fighting back."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 09:10

Yet Another Historic Church Torched In Canada

Zero Hedge -

Yet Another Historic Church Torched In Canada

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Another historic church lies in ashes after a major fire tore through Saint-Romain, Quebec, last night. The building, whose construction began in 1893, is the latest casualty in a relentless campaign against Canada’s Christian institutions that has seen arsons more than double since 2021.

The post, which included video of the blaze, has ignited widespread outrage across X, with people quick to assume who the likely culprits are.

That CBC News investigation documented the surge in detail. A subsequent Macdonald-Laurier Institute report confirmed arson attacks on religious institutions more than doubled from pre-2021 baselines, with fewer than 4% of cases resulting in charges—leaving over 96% unsolved.

Western nations are watching the same erosion. In the UK, churches face more than 10 crimes every single day.

Prime Minister Kier Starmer’s selective outrage—furious over a mosque incident yet silent as churches literally burn to the ground has added to the outrage.

The same thing is happening all over Europe.

Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic rush to condemn “hate” when it suits their narrative, yet the destruction of Christian landmarks draws shrugs or excuses despite most cases remaining unsolved.

Mass immigration continues unchecked, with critics muzzled by speech laws while churches, the backbone of Western communities, are erased.

Responses on X captured the frustration. One user noted: “Churches are burning around the world And yet they keep telling us there’s nothing to see. Funny how the arsonists are never caught.” Another warned: “This is what muslims do as they conquer new areas. They destroy the religions sites of the conquered people. This has always been their way.”

Historic buildings that stood for over a century or more are torched while authorities prioritize everything except protecting the heritage that built their nations.

Canada—and the broader West—cannot afford more “coincidences.” Without border security, law enforcement that actually prosecutes, and leaders who value their own civilization over imported grievances, the fires will keep coming.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:50

Futures Unchanged Just Shy Of All Time High On Peace Hopes, Solid Earnings

Zero Hedge -

Futures Unchanged Just Shy Of All Time High On Peace Hopes, Solid Earnings

US equity futures are flat following yesterday’s rally as market awaits news on the Iran war resolution and as we traverse earnings season. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures are little changed after the benchmark closed within a whisker of a record. Risk sentiment took a small knock in recent trade after Iran cautioned that it will not allow shipments to or from the Gulf if the US blockade remain.Nasdaq futures are fractionally in the green, and set for an 11th consecutive gain as the massive short squeeze/CTA forced buying continues: in premarket trading, Mag7 / Semis are mixed, Discretionary and Staples are both stronger, Fins / Indu are leading Cyclicals with weakness in Materials.  Bank of America and Morgan Stanley rose in premarket trading as their equity traders posted strong revenue beats. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded flat, while China’s mainland blue-chip index became the latest in Asia to recoup losses since the Iranian war began. Brent erased early losses to rise 1% toward $96 a barrel as the US pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Treasuries edged lower, with the two-year yield rising one basis point to 3.76% and the 10Y rising 2bps to 4.27%. The dollar is slightly stronger which would break a 7 session losing streak if gains hold while gold fell toward $4,800 an ounce. Other commodities are mixed with Ags, Base metals, and the Energy complex ex-natgas bid. Today’s macro data focus is on Beige Book, TIC data (keep an eye on buys/sells of Trsys), Housing prices, Empire Mfg, and Import/Export prices.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.5%, Meta +0.1%, Apple -0.04%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.08%, Nvidia -0.1%)

  • Quantum computing stocks rise, on track to extend gains, after Nvidia unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum computing.
  • Solar stocks are rising after Reuters reported that China held initial talks with providers of equipment to make solar panels as it considers limiting exports of the most advanced technology to the US, citing five people familiar with the matter. Gainers include First Solar (FSLR) +4%.
  • Broadcom (AVGO) rises 3% after the technology company expanded its partnership with Meta to deploy AI infrastructure.
  • BRP Inc. (DOO) slumps 22% after the Canadian recreational manufacturer withdrew its financial outlook for the 2027 fiscal year, saying it faces a $363 million hit from recent changes by the Trump administration to its tariffs.
  • Cloudflare (NET) gains 3% as Piper Sandler upgrades to overweight, calling it an “AI-winner to own.”
  • Gitlab (GTLB) gains 6% after the company announced a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.
  • Robinhood (HOOD) rises 7% and Webull (BULL) gains 8% after the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors.
  • Snap Inc. (SNAP) climbs 8% after saying it is laying off roughly 1,000 full-time employees, or 16% of its global workforce, part of an effort by Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel to reduce costs and achieve profitability.
  • SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) slips 3% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company to sell, saying expectations are too high.
  • TeraWulf (WULF) falls over 7% after the Bitcoin mining company’s preliminary first-quarter revenue came in below Wall Street’s expectations. The company also said it is offering $800 million of shares via Morgan Stanley and Cantor Fitzgerald.

In corporate news, Anthropic has received offers from investors for a new round of funding that could value the company at about $800 billion or higher. Meta anounced an expanded multibillion-dollar partnership with Broadcom to design and build custom chips for AI. Stellantis’s global shipments jumped 12% in the first quarter, led by a surge in demand in North America for its refreshed Jeep and Ram models.

In the latest Middle East developments, as US/Iran move towards a second official negotiation, another aircraft carrier (USS George HW Bush) is set to arrive with additional soldiers and war ships around Apr 21, with the ceasefire set to expire on Apr 22; this carrier group’s route appears to be avoiding the Suez Canal / Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The USS Abraham Lincoln has completed repairs in Crete though it is unknown if it will resume activities in the ME Conflict, which would be the third aircraft carrier. Bessent says ME Conflict is worth having some short-term economic pain for long-term gain. Iran’s state TV cited Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s joint military headquarters, who warned that if the US continues to impose a naval blockade in the region and creates insecurity for Iran’s ships, “this action by the US will constitute a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire.” If the blockade continues, Iran’s armed forces “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea.”

Meanwhile, bank earnings point to a generally healthy consumer and corporate sector, both able to withstand the supply chain shock emanating from the Middle East without experiencing stagflation / recession.

President Trump told the New York Post that talks could resume “over the next two days” and said in a Fox Business interview the war is “close to over.” Mediators moved closer to extending the ceasefire between the two parties, the Associated Press reported.

Investors have been piling back into stocks even with no clear end in sight to the war, which has choked off around a fifth of global crude supplies and risked a surge in inflation that could still prompt central banks to tighten policy. 

“Amid all the uncertainty, I consider it warranted to re-focus on the outlook beyond the war,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. “A key driver of markets is that the war-related dash for liquidity is over and partly reversing. That helps the more risky assets.”

Technology shares in particular have been snapped up after lagging the market for much of the year, with the Nasdaq 100 notching its longest stretch of daily wins since 2021. In just the past two sessions, a popular exchange-traded fund that tracks the software industry is up 6.4%. Oracle Corp. has soared 18% and Microsoft Corp. and Palantir Technologies Inc. have gained 6%. 

“The US tech sector, including the Magnificent Seven, is much cheaper today than six months ago,” said Lilian Chovin, head of asset allocation at Coutts & Co. “Concerns around the Middle East won’t disappear all of a sudden, but the ability of those companies to generate earnings in a difficult macro environment remains very attractive.”

With the earnings season now in full swing, investors will watch for signs of whether the conflict is denting the outlook for earnings and whether corporates and consumers are cutting back on spending amid the uncertainty. In Europe, ASML Holding NV shares fell 0.5% as a weaker-than-expected sales outlook for the second quarter tempered a raised full-year forecast for the maker of advanced chipmaking machines. Luxury firms Hermes International SCA and Kering SA slumped after disappointing sales updates.

It’s still early in the earnings season, but Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said he’s “impressed by the resiliency of Corporate America” so far. Management teams at the likes of Citigroup, Delta Airlines and JPMorgan have pointed to relatively stable trends in terms of customer spending and activity, he said. That’s helping the narrative of US strength over the rest of the world. In Europe, luxury giants Hermès and Kering both reported poor results as the war crimped sales.

Financials dominate the first week of earnings season, but remain bottom of the pile in sector returns for the year. Morgan Stanley is expected to post record equity-trading revenue, while BofA’s top-line gains and cost control in 1Q should usher in positive operating leverage, according to BI. 

Elsewhere, chip equipment maker ASML’s CEO expects chip demand to outpace supply “for the foreseeable future,” creating “a strong constraint” in various markets from AI to mobile and PC. These supply/demand dynamics are showing up in the global smartphone market, which suffered its first decline since 2023 in 1Q, according to market tracker IDC. The memory crunch and war in Iran are likely to elevate costs and constrain growth further in 2026.

“Earnings will be key for fundamental investors to step in and chase or fade,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc. With “stocks near year-to-date highs, it feels like easy gains are behind us and fundamentals should prevail again.”

In geopolitics, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the BBC that the Iran war is worth a “small bit of economic pain,” ahead of what is likely to be a tense meeting with his UK counterpart Rachel Reeves. Trump described the relationship with the UK as “sad,” adding that the trade deal between the countries “can always be changed.” Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged deeper bilateral coordination with Russia.

European indices mostly tilt lower with the broad Stoxx 600 down 0.1% with technology and health care shares leading gains, while consumer products and energy stocks are the biggest laggards. The CAC 40 lags with losses of 0.6% following disappointing earnings from Hermes and Kering, with the former posting its largest decline on record. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

  • Aixtron gains as much as 15%, to the highest since June 2001, after pre-announcing its first-quarter results and lifting guidance for the full year
  • ASML shares advance as much as 1.8% after the Dutch firm raised full-year sales guidance, a signal of strong demand from chipmakers
  • Basic-Fit shares jump as much as 8.3%, to the highest intraday since Jan. 27, after KBC Securities upgraded the Dutch health club chain to buy from hold
  • DFDS shares rise as much as 16%, their biggest gain in over a year, after the shipping and logistics company raised its Ebit guidance
  • Intertek Group shares rise as much as 14% after analysts welcomed the group’s initiation of a strategic review to evaluate if Intertek Testing & Assurance and Intertek Energy & Infrastructure would be better positioned as separate businesses
  • Saga shares jump as much as 12% to the highest in six years after the travel and insurance company reported full-year results, with Peel Hunt noting encouraging current trading and strong ocean cruise bookings
  • Hermès shares fall as much as 14%, the most on record, after the luxury-goods firm reports first-quarter sales that missed analyst estimates, dragged down by a weak performance in Asia Pacific and France
  • Kering shares fall 10% after the French luxury group’s key fashion & leather goods unit fell short of expectations, dragged down by worse-than-expected Gucci sales
  • Imperial Brands drops as much as 3.2% after being downgraded by analysts at UBS on a lack of near-term catalysts and concerns around more intense competition
  • Colruyt declines as much as 6%, the most in almost four months, as JPMorgan places the retail company on a negative catalyst watch into its full-year results in June and lowers its price target to a new Street low

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia gained after the US and Iran stepped up efforts to arrange a second round of peace talks, reviving hopes for an end to six weeks of hostilities in the Middle East that fueled an energy crisis. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, led by gains in TSMC and Samsung Electronics. A gauge of the region’s technology stocks jumped as much as 2.9% to an all-time high, tracking an overnight rally on Wall Street. South Korea’s Kospi outperformed major markets. Thailand was closed for a holiday.
Renewed optimism over Middle East stability has shifted investor focus back toward technology earnings and the outlook for further AI-driven capital expenditure. While geopolitics risks linger, fatigue is tempering reactions to incremental developments. Stocks advanced in Hong Kong, Japan and the Philippines. Shares also traded higher in India as trading resumed after a holiday. 

In rates, treasuries are marginally cheaper across the curve in early US trading, having erased small gains spurred by AP report that the US and Iran agreed in principle to extend a truce. US 2- to 10-year yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper with long-end little changed, flattening 5s30s spread by less than 1bp; 10-year near 4.26% slightly underperforms German and UK counterparts. US session has few scheduled events beyond Fed Beige Book release. Corporate new-issue calendar has begun to build, with a busy day expected after several borrowers stood down Tuesday. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has just veered into positive territory, up 0.1% after a run of seven consecutive losses.

In commodities, oil is higher following sharp drop from Monday’s high that helped drive gains for US stocks. WTI crude oil futures remain about 1.5% higher with the latest update from Iran sending prices to session highs. Spot gold and silver have ebbed lower throughout the session, showing respective losses of 1% and 1.3%. Bitcoin loses 0.3%.  

The US economic data calendar includes April Empire manufacturing and March import/export price index (8:30am), April NAHB housing market index (10am) and February TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate includes Governor Barr and Cleveland’s Hammack (8:30am) and Governor Bowman (1:45pm); Beige Book released 2pm.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini little changed
  • Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX little changed
  • CAC 40 -0.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.26%
  • VIX little changed at 18.32
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1193.5
  • euro little changed at $1.1786
  • WTI crude +1.2% at $92.36/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of renewed fighting in the war with Iran, saying the war is "close to over" and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary. Talks between the US and Iran might restart "over the next two days", according to Trump, after an initial round of peace talks ended in Pakistan on Sunday without a deal. BBG
  • The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration attempts to pressure Iran into a deal that could end the weeks long conflict there while considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if a fragile ceasefire deal does not hold. WaPo
  • A fallback plan to ensure Europe can defend itself using NATO’s existing military structures if the U.S. departs is gaining traction after getting buy-in from Germany, a long-term opponent of a go-it-alone approach. The officials working on the plans, which some officials are referring to as “European NATO,” are seeking to get more Europeans into the alliance’s command-and-control roles and supplement U.S. military assets with their own. WSJ
  • Xi Jinping met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Beijing. BBG
  • The US-UK trade deal “can always be changed,” Trump told Sky News, describing the relationship between the two countries as “sad.” BBG
  • ASML raised its sales forecast as the surge in AI spending continued to boost demand, as optimism about the tech returned to the spotlight. BBG
  • President Donald Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court struck down many of his levies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. BBG
  • Maine lawmakers have passed a bill that could make it the first U.S. state to put a moratorium on new data centers as ‌opposition to the electricity-hungry facilities grows across the country over their impact on household energy bills and the environment. The bill would freeze approvals for data centers requiring more than 20 megawatts of power until October 2027, while a state-appointed council analyzes ⁠their impact on the local grid, electricity bills, air and water. RTRS
  • Anthropic received several offers for a new round of funding that would more than double its pre-money valuation to about $800 billion or higher, people familiar said. BBG
  • US Treasury has begun quietly asking private credit firms to submit information detailing their business models and ties to the regulated financial system: Punchbowl.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said underlying economy remains strong and still thinks growth could exceed 3% to 3.5% this year.
  • White House Economic Advisor Hassett said real income growth is very high and he is confident the economy will be strong this year.

Iran War

  • Effort to extend US-Iran ceasefire has made progress, AP reports citing official; mediators aim to extend the ceasefire for at least another two weeks; both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.
  • Discussions are underway regarding possible extension of temporary ceasefire between Iran and US, according to Arab diplomatic sources cited by Russia on Wednesday and being reported by Chinese press CCTV. However, US President Trump said it could end either way, but thinks a deal is preferable because then Iran can rebuild, also said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reported citing ABC reporter on X.
  • The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reports citing US officials; in a bid to pressure Iran while mulling the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
  • US President Trump said it's "very possible" a deal with Iran will be reached by the time the King visits the US later this month (27-29th April), Sky News reported.
  • US President Trump said he views the war being very close to over, according to Fox News.
  • US VP Vance said we are negotiating with Iran and ceasefire is holding, adds Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal. Feel good about where we are. Lot of mistrust between the US and Iran, can't be solved overnight.
  • US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face meeting before the ceasefire expires next week, according to sources familiar cited by CNN.
  • Pakistan leadership’s overseas tour until April 18th dims prospects of US-Iran talks in Islamabad before April 18th, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported.
  • Iran is to use alternative ports to those in southern Iran to bypass the US blockade in the Strait, Mehr News reported.
  • An Iranian VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier), which was on the US sanctions list, entered the waters of Iran past the US blockade, Fars reported.
  • Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to an FT investigation.
  • US Central Command said blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.
  • US has intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade, according to WSJ.
  • New satellite images show Iran digging for missile launchers trapped underground amid a ceasefire, according to CNN.
  • More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, WSJ reported, citing US officials.
  • US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that attempted to leave Iran on Tuesday, according to an official cited by Reuters.
  • US President Trump reiterates on Truth Social "NATO wasn’t there for us, and they won’t be there for us in the future!".
  • Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case US President Trump pulls US out of the treaty, according to WSJ.
  • US Pentagon is likely to trim its Iran wall funding request, according to WSJ citing Senator Coons who is the top democrat on the Senate appropriations defence committee.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took its cue from the rally on Wall St amid continued hopes regarding US-Iran talks, while President Trump suggested talks could occur during the next two days. ASX 200 eked mild gains, but with upside capped as strength in tech, gold miners and health care was offset by losses in energy and some defensives, while trade was also restricted by a lack of data and drivers. Nikkei 225 rallied above the 58,000 level, with the positive risk sentiment facilitated by the recent decline in oil prices and the much stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with the gains in Hong Kong led by tech strength, while oil majors lagged after the recent oil decline. Furthermore, the PBoC continued its meagre daily liquidity efforts through 7-day reverse repo operations, but had announced yesterday to conduct CNY 500bln of 183-day outright reverse repos for today.

Top Asian News

  • China’s State Council says temporary measures, including suspending approvals or filings, may be used to address industries facing severe disorderly competition.
  • Chinese President Xi said in meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that China is to enhance communications with Russia and the stability of ties with Russia is valuable.
  • Russian President Putin's visit to China is being prepared and the timing of the visit will be announced by the Kremlin in due course, according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskov.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) point to a mixed picture, primarily driven by diverging earnings. The CAC 40 (-0.6%) is the big underperformer following losses in luxury names (Hermes -9%, Kering -9.1%), while the AEX (+0.1%) slightly outperforms as ASML (+0.1%) gains. As mentioned above, Q1 earnings reports by ASML, Kering and Hermes have been of focus this morning. Starting with Europe’s most valuable company, ASML reported sales that beat estimates while also raising its FY26 revenue guidance. The CEO highlighted that demand for chips is outpacing supply and that order intake continues to be very strong. Despite the strong report, shares initially fell slightly at the open, possibly on the softer Q2 sales guidance, but has reversed course since.

Top European News

  • French Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 0.9%); HICP Y/Y 2.0% vs. prelim. 1.9%.
  • French Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.6%).
  • EU Industrial Production MoM (Feb) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.5%, Low. -0.5%, High. 1.0%)
  • EU Industrial Production YoY (Feb) Y/Y -0.6% vs. Exp. -1.4% (Prev. -1.2%, Low. -1.9%, High. -1.0%)
  • Polish Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.1% vs. Exp. 1% (Prev. 0.3%).
  • Polish Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.4%).

Trade/Tariffs

  • China is reportedly considering curbs on solar manufacturing equipment exports to the US, Reuters reported citing sources.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said tariffs could be back in place to previous levels by July, and doesn't think there's a big risk from Trump's China trip; US wants to de-risk, not decouple from China and China's global trade surplus is getting excessive.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to visit Japan in mid-May, Kyodo reported.
  • An Indian trade official said a trade delegation will visit the US from April 20–22nd for trade deal talks.
  • Australia and Brunei committed to maintaining open trade flows, while both sides reaffirmed commitment to strengthen energy and food security.

FX

  • G10s are mostly lower against the USD, with the AUD marginally outperforming whilst the CHF lags incrementally. Overall, it is a cautious mood in the FX space as markets await details on when/if the second round of US-Iran talks will begin.
  • DXY trades above the 98.00 handle, which it dipped under on Tuesday. The narrative remains an optimistic one with MUFG saying it looks like "the period when investors begin throwing in the towel on the long dollar trade." and ING writing this morning that these USD levels "seem to embed a fair amount of premature optimism". The greenback sees a busy calendar ahead with comments from the US President to be aired at 11:00 BST via Fox News and several Fed speakers, including Barr (voter; no text expected) to speak on consumer compliance supervision and regulation, Hammack on CNBC (2026 voter; no text expected) and Bowman (voter, dove; no text expected) to speak at the IIF.
  • It is worth noting that the USD saw some mild strength following a piece in the Washington Post, which suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” - the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
  • Several updates for the UK this morning, with Times and Sky News scoops lacking good news for the Chancellor. On the domestic front, The Times hears that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking to back down on plans to increase fuel duty by 5p a litre from September; the suggestion is that the move would cost about GBP 2.6bln. On defence, Chancellor Reeves is said to have proposed only increasing defence spending by less than GBP 10bln over the next four years, fearing a bigger increase would be unaffordable. On the docket ahead, the Chancellor is planning to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the US today. It should not be a game-changer. She is expected to touch on the Strait of Hormuz, the need to stabilise markets, and potentially to confirm the UK's participation in the EU’s EUR 90bln loan to Ukraine, POLITICO reported. BoE's Greene and Bailey to speak later in the day. As sterling digests these updates, EUR/GBP trades unchanged below the key 0.87 mark, while Cable is also unchanged as it pulled back from Tuesday's 1.3589 high.

Central Banks

  • ECB President Lagarde said ECB is in a good position to respond to the Iran situation, adds would be a mistake to say we need to look through the shock, and it's just too soon to make such a conclusion.
  • ECB's Rehn said tightening is not guaranteed, the policy path depends a lot on how the Middle East conflict evolves.
  • BoK Governor nominee Shin said South Korea inflation is to accelerate and external risks pose uncertainty. Sees upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on the economy. Risks may expand further and economic growth may weaken. To seek to stabilise prices and financial stability, and will work to internationalise the won. Monetary policy needs to act if there are prolonged inflationary pressures stemming from Iran war.
  • SNB, ahead of the end-2027 introduction of the PSFF, has decided to lower the special-rate surcharge from 50bps to 25bps as of July 1st.
  • The PBoC raises the leverage ratios for bank's overseas loans.

Fixed Income

  • Global fixed benchmarks are currently mixed, with USTs a little lower whilst Bunds and Gilts continue to build on recent strength. The geopolitical environment appears to be easing, with traders now digesting President Trump’s latest comments, where he stated that he views the war as being very close to over, adding that he does not think it will be necessary to extend a ceasefire. Given the generally positive mood music, crude prices remain at recent lows, reducing inflationary implications on the economy for the time being. Markets await further commentary from POTUS at 11:00 BST.
  • It is worth noting that USTs dipped into the red in recent trade after a piece in the Washington Post suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” - the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks. US paper currently trades at the lower end of a 111-14 to 111-21 range. Geopols aside, import/export prices, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Fed’s Beige Book, TIC/foreign bond investment data are due. On the speaker slate, Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Hammack are all on the docket.
  • Bunds are firmer by c. 10 ticks, and towards the lower end of a 125.35 to 125.40 range. Further pressure in German paper could see a breach below Tuesday’s close at 125.32, and then 125.21 (50% fib of Tuesday’s move). No move to the 2048, 2052 and 2056 Bund auctions. From a yield perspective, the GE 2yr oscillates around near-term troughs at 2.53%, but well off the levels seen pre-war. UniCredit analysts highlight that following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, the German 10/30yr spread has bull-steeped and is currently trading at 56bps, 14bps higher than the recent trough. Despite the recent hopes of an end of the conflict, the analysts do not see the spread returning to the pre-conflict 67bps anytime soon.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 30 ticks, briefly extended to a peak of 89.31, before scaling back off those levels as the morning progressed to make a trough of 88.88. As above, Gilts moved higher on the geopolitical optimism, before moving off best levels alongside peers. In terms of the BoE, money markets currently assign no chance of a hike in April, and fully price in a 25bps hike in September – ultimately, markets remain cautious about the inflationary implications of the Iran conflict, despite signs of easing tensions. Focus today will be on BoE speak from Greene (15:15 BST), and Bailey, the latter slated to speak twice; in recent commentary, the Governor believed markets were “getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes”.

Commodities

  • In geopolitics, US President Trump told Fox that he sees the Iran war as “very close to being over” and said talks could resume “over the next two days”; the full interview is due to air at 11:00BST/06:00EDT. Elsewhere, it was also reported that discussions are underway regarding a possible extension of the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US. That being said, it’s worth noting that Pakistan’s leadership will be away until April 18th, which dims the prospects of a US-Iran meeting before that date, according to local journalists.
  • Crude prices were hit on Tuesday as traders weighed prospects for a second round of US-Iran talks against the near-total double blockade of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Early morning action saw both Brent Jun and WTI Jun trade on either side of the unchanged mark, and near recent lows. However, the complex gradually lifted off lows as the morning progressed, and then took a leg higher to session peaks following a WaPo piece which suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” - the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks. Brent Jun currently holds at the upper end of a USD 93.93-96.25/bbl range; WTI Jun also firmer today, within a USD 84.70-89.75/bbl range.
  • Gold eased into the European session and currently resides in a USD 4,792-4,871/oz range at the time of writing. Some desks view the recent move as technical, with prices bouncing off the 200 DMA in late March. Base metal prices are mostly but modestly firmer. London copper has now erased all losses triggered by the conflict, moving above its 27th February close as traders focused on possible peace talks. 3M LME copper resides in a tight USD 13,251.45- 13,391.60/t range.
  • Codelco is in talks with India’s Hindustan Copper over a joint venture for Chilean copper.
  • Japan plans to extend private sector oil release by one month, according to TV Asahi.
  • Venezuela's Interim President Rodriguez called for a long-term energy partnership with the US.
  • White House said more than 100 empty oil tankers are on their way to U.S. ports to load American crude, CBS reported. Of the 103 empty vessels, 54 are Very Large Crude Carriers capable of transporting approximately two million barrels. Among them were "20 empty tankers under European flags and 20 under Asian flags" that had "recently unloaded elsewhere".
  • US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +6.1mln (exp -1.3mln), Distillate -3.4mln (exp. -2.5mln), Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing -1.7mln.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:00 am: United States Apr 10 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.8%
  • 8:30 am: United States Apr Empire Manufacturing, est. 0, prior -0.2
  • 8:30 am: United States Mar Import Price Index MoM, est. 2.3%, prior 1.3%
  • 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Barr in Moderated Discussion
  • 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Hammack Appears on CNBC
  • 1:45 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks at IIF Forum
  • 2:00 pm: United States Fed Releases Beige Book
  • 4:00 pm: United States Feb Total Net TIC Flows, prior -25.02b
  • 4:00 pm: United States Feb Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 15.51b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Hopes for a de-escalation between the US and Iran have continued to propel markets higher this morning, with Trump saying overnight that “I think it’s close to over.” So oil prices have remained steady, with Brent crude at $95.26/bbl, and the surge for risk assets has continued. Indeed, yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+1.18%) close just shy of its record high, meaning that the index is now up +9.8% over the last 10 sessions. For reference, that’s now even faster than the bounceback after Liberation Day last year, and we haven’t seen a run of gains that quick over 10 sessions since the post-Covid bounceback in April 2020. That optimism has continued overnight, with futures on the S&P 500 up +0.08%, and we’ve seen gains across Asian equities as well. For instance, the Nikkei (+0.82%), the KOSPI (+2.92%), the Hang Seng (+0.76%) and the CSI 300 (+0.17%) are all on track for a one-month high.

All that follows more positive headlines over the last 24 hours, which have led to mounting hopes that the US and Iran will be back at the negotiating table soon. Among others, Trump himself said yesterday to the New York Post that talks “could be happening over the next two days” in Pakistan. And that echoed a report from Reuters earlier in the day, which said that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Islamabad this week, according to four sources. So there was a general sense that there was still a pathway towards de-escalation, and overnight, ABC’s Jonathan Karl also said that Trump told him “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead”. Over on the Iranian side, there were also headlines suggesting they wanted a deal, with Bloomberg reporting that Iran was considering a short-term pause to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, to avoid testing the US blockade and derailing any further peace talks.3

Nevertheless, that US blockade does remain in place, and US Central Command announced that 6 merchant ships were turned around and forced to re-enter an Iranian port during the first day of the US blockade. Overnight, the CENTCOM Commander also said that the blockade of Iran’s ports “has been fully implemented”, and that “U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea”. But even with the Strait of Hormuz, investors were still hopeful about some kind of reopening, with the WSJ reporting last night that European countries were putting together plans for a coalition of countries to free up the Strait of Hormuz, which would include sending mine-clearing vessels.

Collectively, this newsflow has continued to support markets, as it’s eased investor fears about a stagflationary shock. Indeed, Brent crude oil has now closed beneath $100/bbl for over a week now, and yesterday it fell another -4.60% to $94.79/bbl. Moreover, investors continue to believe the conflict will be a temporary one, with the oil futures curve still having a sharp negative slope. For example, the 6-month Brent future was down -2.18% yesterday to $82.48/bbl, and the 12-month future was down -1.66% to $77.75/bbl.

Given all that, US markets put in a strong performance, as growing hopes for a ceasefire and lower oil prices helped to support bonds and equities. So the S&P 500 (+1.18%) closed just shy of its record high from late-January, having now risen for 9 of the last 10 sessions. That was powered by the Magnificent 7 (+5.49%), which saw its strongest performance in the last two weeks, although the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.32%) also advanced. The hope of lower energy prices helped consumer cyclicals such as Media (+3.5%), Autos (+3.4%), and Consumer Discretionary Retail (+2.8%) to outperform, while Energy (-2.2%) and Banks (-0.9%) lagged. Meanwhile, there were further signs that the financial stress was easing more broadly, with the VIX index (-0.8pts) falling to just 18.36pts, its lowest since late-February, before the strikes began. In addition, US HY spreads (-11bps) fell to their tightest level in two months, at 268bps.

Over on the rates side, US Treasuries also rallied yesterday, with a further boost after the PPI inflation reading was softer than expected. It showed headline PPI was only up +0.5% in March (vs. +1.1% expected), meaning that the year-on-year measure only rose to +4.0% (vs. +4.6% expected). So that helped to ease fears about a larger wave of inflation, particularly after Friday’s CPI. And in turn, yields fell back across the curve yesterday, with the 2yr yield (-2.7bps) falling to 3.74%, whilst the 10yr yield (-4.5bps) fell to 4.25%. That was the lowest level on the 10yr yield since mid-March, and it’s down another -0.2bps overnight.

There was also some news on the Fed yesterday, as it was confirmed that Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing to become Fed Chair would be held on Tuesday. So that’ll be a crucial moment for markets, as we’ll start to get a better understanding of Warsh’s policy views and where things might head over the years ahead. To date, the barrier to Warsh’s confirmation has been that Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring Republican senator on the Committee, has said he won’t support any Fed nominees until the Department of Justice probe into Chair Powell is resolved. But the committee chair Tim Scott said yesterday that “I believe that the DOJ will finish and wrap this up in the next several weeks”. The other outstanding question is whether Powell would stay on the Board of Governors once his term as Chair concludes, as his Board seat goes up until January 2028. So far, Powell hasn’t confirmed either way, only saying that he will remain on the Board while the investigation is ongoing. But in a scenario where the investigation has concluded, he hasn’t confirmed his intentions.

Staying with the US administration, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the tariffs which were struck down by the Supreme Court could be restored to previous levels by mid-Summer. In remarks during a Wall Street Journal event, Bessent said “we will be implementing or conducting Section 301 studies, so the tariffs could be back in place at the previous level by beginning of July.” As a reminder, since the IEEPA tariffs were struck down, the administration have implemented a 10% global tariff, but that will expire on July 24 without congressional authorisation.

Earlier in Europe, markets also put in a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.99%) up to a one-month high. The main driver was the decline in oil prices, and we also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said that the ECB didn’t have a tightening bias. So that combination helped to ease investor concerns about an imminent ECB rate hike, with market pricing for an April hike down to 28% by the close, having been at 42% the previous day. So that helped bonds to rally as well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-6.8bps), OATs (-9.1bps) and BTPs (-10.7bps) all moving lower.

Finally, the IMF published their latest World Economic Outlook yesterday, where they downgraded their global growth forecasts and upgraded inflation. So global growth is now seen at +3.1% this year, down two-tenths from January. The downgrades were biggest in the areas directly affected by the conflict, with the Middle East and Central Asia slashed by two points to +1.9%. Meanwhile on inflation, they now see global consumer prices up +4.4% this year, six-tenths above the January forecast.

Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Cipollone, Escriva, Villeroy and Schnabel, the Fed’s Barr and Bowman, and BoE Governor Bailey. Data releases include Euro Area industrial production for February. Finally, earnings releases include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:38

Nvidia Unveils New AI Open Model, Sparking Rally In Quantum Stocks

Zero Hedge -

Nvidia Unveils New AI Open Model, Sparking Rally In Quantum Stocks

Nvidia unveiled the world's first open-source AI models to accelerate the development of quantum computing. The news sent shares of several Asian software and cybersecurity firms soaring and sparked a rally in U.S.-listed quantum stocks in premarket trading.

Nvidia's Ising open-model family is designed to improve two critical areas: quantum processor calibration and quantum error correction. Nvidia claims the models deliver calibration capabilities it describes as industry-leading, while its decoding tools operate 2.5 times faster and achieve up to 3x greater accuracy than traditional open-source approaches.

"AI is essential to making quantum computing practical," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated.

Jensen continued, "With Ising, AI becomes the control plane, the operating system of quantum machines, transforming fragile qubits into scalable and reliable quantum-GPU systems."

In South Korea, shares of software and cybersecurity firms, including Axgate Co. and ICTK Co., jumped to the 30% daily trading limit. China's GuoChuang Software Co. and QuantumCTek Co., along with Japan's Fixstars Corp., rose at least 8%.

In the U.S., D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) rose 10%, while IonQ Inc. (IONQ) and Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) climbed 5.9% following the Nvidia news.

Amid the hype in quantum stocks, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Robert Lea reminded traders, "While these tools can potentially help accelerate developments, the deployment of practical, large-scale quantum computing remains a long way off."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:20

Tether Launches Self-Custodial Wallet Supporting USDT, Bitcoin, & Tokenized Gold

Zero Hedge -

Tether Launches Self-Custodial Wallet Supporting USDT, Bitcoin, & Tokenized Gold

Authored by Naga Avan-Nomayo via TheBlock.co,

Tether, issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, is stepping further out from behind the rails with the launch of its self-custodial wallet, which it says is designed to put its payments infrastructure directly in the hands of users, rather than operating solely as a backend layer for crypto markets.

The application, dubbed tether.wallet, targets "billions of users left behind by the traditional financial system," the firm said in a Tuesday announcement.

Tether stated that it also builds on a network that already reaches more than 570 million people globally.

Until now, that infrastructure has largely powered liquidity, settlement, and payments across crypto rather than serving as a direct consumer product.

The wallet focuses on a narrow set of assets. It supports digital dollars via USDT and USAT, tokenized gold through XAUT, and bitcoin -  a mix Tether says reflects "the only assets that truly matter for most of the people."

Moreover, the product also strips out several long-standing friction points in crypto.

Users can send funds using human-readable identifiers, instead of wallet addresses. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the aim is to make digital asset transfers "as easily as sending a message," without intermediaries or loss of custody.

Transaction fees can be paid directly in the asset being transferred, removing the need for separate gas tokens.

Private keys remain fully user-controlled, with all transactions signed locally on-device, per the company’s statement.

Tether’s expansion

The launch extends a broader push by Tether to move up the stack from issuer and infrastructure provider toward consumer-facing products.

In recent months, the company has open-sourced its Wallet Development Kit to enable self-custodial wallets for both humans and AI agents, backed crypto wallet integrations in platforms like Rumble, and supported stablecoin payout systems through investments such as Whop.

That direction ties into Ardoino’s longer-term view that future financial activity will not be limited to humans.

He has previously argued that AI agents will require native, self-custodial wallets and will rely on bitcoin and stablecoins for machine-to-machine payments.

It appears tether.wallet is built on that same foundation.

The app runs on Tether’s open-source Wallet Development Kit, supporting transactions across humans, machines and AI systems, with support for networks including Ethereum, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Bitcoin’s Lightning Network.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 08:05

Kering And Hermès Sink As War Batters Earnings; Goldman Warns Luxury Dip-Buying Is "Premature"

Zero Hedge -

Kering And Hermès Sink As War Batters Earnings; Goldman Warns Luxury Dip-Buying Is "Premature"

Goldman's Natasha de la Grense summed it up well this morning: "Money was waiting on the sidelines to buy luxury for a de-escalation play – that feels premature with three misses in three days." 

Disappointments from Kering and Hermès, both of which fell short of analyst estimates, reinforced the view that the industry of fine wine, overpriced shirts, shoes, belts, and designer bags, is not yet out of the woods and sent the Goldman Sachs EU Luxury Goods Index (GSXELUXG) down more than 4%. 

Gucci's turnaround appears to be faltering, with first-quarter revenue plunging 8% - nearly double the expected decline as the US-Iran conflict hit Middle East demand and tourism. 

The conflict started late in the first quarter, resulting in an 11% sales drop in the Middle East (about 5% of revenue) and shaving roughly 1 percentage point off Kering's overall sales. 

Shares of Kering in Paris trade down as much as 10%, leaving them down about 16.5% on the year. 

Also in the luxury space, Hermès missed expectations in the first quarter, with sales up 5.6% at constant exchange rates versus the Bloomberg Consensus estimates of 7.44%. This miss sent shares in Paris spiraling down by 10%, leaving them down 23% on the year.

Hermès' weakness was similar to Kering's, largely due to the Middle East Conflict. Sales in the region fell 5.9%, while France declined 2.8%, as lower tourism spending weighed on results, particularly due to fewer Middle Eastern shoppers visiting stores across France, Switzerland, and the UK. Italy was also affected, but not as much.

Both earnings results add to mounting evidence that the war is hitting luxury demand more broadly.

Natasha at Goldman outlined six points of what her team learned today about luxury stock earnings: 

  1. Taking a step back from this morning's large share price moves in Luxury, what have we actually learnt from Q1 prints? Most companies are talking to a -100-150bps headwind in the quarter from events in the Middle East which is not too surprising but implies that underlying growth is still unexciting, particularly when you consider easier comps vs Q4. Areas of prior strength are still very solid (US, jewellery) and, on the positive side, the consumer is responding to leather newness in certain pockets. However, there is no real step change in the overall demand backdrop (aspirational remains weak) and so no reason to own this sector at large. Money was waiting on the sidelines to buy luxury for a de-escalation play – that feels premature with three misses in three days.

  2. Hermes was the biggest surprise for me today. It seems this group's exposure to tourism is higher than many of us had realised (>50% of sales in France), while wholesale was impacted by not just Travel Retail but also lower deliveries to concessions in the Middle East. On the positive side, space contribution will pick up through the year - Hermes didn't say inventory had been held back ahead of store openings but did remind us Leather production can be lumpy, guiding for improved performance sequentially and reiterating FY guidance.

  3. I still think the structural bear case on Hermes is overstated while waiting lists still exist and second hand bags are priced at a premium. And, with no change to outlook, consensus likely stays at 9% for FY26 - bang in line with the pre-covid average meaning this company is still "doing what it says on the tin". That said, I appreciate there was nothing in the print to disprove the bears today. China is where we have heard most concern on the brand – largely due to second hand market headwinds (where there is more authentication, high supply and price premia have come down). To be fair, Hermes' slight growth in China isn't bad vs peers (Kering cluster down mid-teens, LVMH cluster flat) particularly considering the tougher comp. Bears also point to the non-Leather slowdown today as a sign of softer global brand momo – again this is hard to disprove, although they did flag on the call that RTW and shoes are quite geared to ME and tourism.

  4. Meanwhile, I am less surprised by the move at Kering today. Unlike at Hermes, positioning was not short, and arguably the print raises more questions on FY delivery. Speaking with investors this morning, the main questions being raised are: 1) is the US improvement really a sign that the Gucci turnaround is working, or simply a function of macro (local wealth effects). Kering said that all brands improved in the US, with strength driven by higher end cohorts rather than this being broad based. In addition Gucci brand was down double digits in all other regions, suggesting global brand momo is still poor; 2) is FY26 guidance of top line growth across all brands achievable considering Gucci retail -9% in Q1, current trading for the group flat (consensus Q2 group +2%), ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a large store closure program; 3) was there a soft warning on margins in here? On the call, the CFO reiterated an "ambition" to grow margins but introduced the idea of stable margins even without growth.

  5. Previously, investors told us they didn't want to be short Kering ahead of the CMD but there is a growing view today that management will have to concede the top line recovery will be back-end loaded and, without top line, any margin story is hard to back. I'd still prefer to wait post CMD before putting on the short as I expect Mr de Meo will come across well once again and the headline on MT margins could sound good. Middle East would have been a credible reason to step away from top line guidance last night – the fact they didn't arguably speaks to confidence in brand strategy presentations to come.

  6. Bottom line: More earnings cuts for Luxury. It is still too early to go back to this sector with both limited visibility on how long conflict lasts and also likely knock-on impacts even after a ceasefire (rising inflation impacting aspirational demand recovery). Our flow has been better to sell in Luxury all year, driven by LOs. We think that investor base needs line of sight on a return to mid-single-digit growth before considering stepping back into this space.

GSXELUXG is down 4% this morning on dismal earnings from Kering and Hermès, and the index has been in an overall bear market since its 2025 peak. The index has traded sideways over the last five years.

Luxury was already under pressure before the conflict because of a tough economic backdrop, but the conflict in the Middle East made things a whole lot worse. The good news is that the US and Iran are agreeing to extend a truce, according to AP News, as talks of a peace deal appear promising.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 07:45

Goldman Highlights Global Nuclear Progress Across SMRs And The Fuel Chain

Zero Hedge -

Goldman Highlights Global Nuclear Progress Across SMRs And The Fuel Chain

March saw the submission of multiple construction permits for new reactors, while new designs like India's thorium reactor, obtained their first criticality. Microreactors in the US also progressed through DOE regulatory pathways as they approach a criticality deadline in July. 

Last month also saw multiple headlines in the US across the nuclear fuel chain. Uranium pricing in the spot market was relatively flat after the significant pullback in February. GS updated their uranium supply demand model to account for some of the latest updates resulting in a continued gross mismatch over the next couple decades. 

These nuclear industry updates come in a time of great power competition in the form of an AI race between China and the US. Constellation Energy's CEO Joseph Dominguez recently stated the US is "very behind" China in the race to build up energy to feed AI data centers.

Taking into account the fact that China has built the entirety of the US electric system since just 2010, Dominguez said "we're in some trouble" if building as fast as China is what it takes to win. He additionally argues a restructuring of national grid operations to better manage peak energy demands could more appropriately balance use of the grid and potentially lead to lower energy prices.  

Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee reviews headlines across the nuclear industry for March.  

New reactor progress and announcements

North America

3/16/26 - Canada - Darlington Unit 4 has returned to service at 100% power, completing Ontario Power Generation’s four‑unit Darlington Refurbishment Project, which extends the plant’s operating life by around 30 years; the CAD 12.8 billion programme was finished four months ahead of schedule and CAD 150 million under budget, marking the full return of all four Candu units to operation.

3/26/2026 - United States - NASA plans to launch Space Reactor‑1 Freedom, the first nuclear‑powered interplanetary spacecraft, to Mars before the end of 2028, using nuclear electric propulsion to enable efficient deep‑space travel; the mission is intended to demonstrate flight‑ready nuclear technology and deploy Ingenuity‑class helicopters at Mars while establishing a foundation for future nuclear‑powered exploration beyond the Moon.

3/27/2026 - United States - Microsoft and Nvidia have announced an “AI for nuclear” collaboration to deploy AI‑driven tools that streamline permitting, accelerate plant design, and optimise construction and operations across the nuclear lifecycle, aiming to reduce regulatory bottlenecks and development timelines without compromising safety; the partnership brings Nvidia‑backed nuclear AI capabilities, including digital twins and simulation, onto Microsoft’s Azure platform, with Everstar contributing domain‑specific nuclear AI.

4/1/2026 - United States - Constellation Energy says it still expects to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center (formerly Three Mile Island Unit 1) in 2027, and plans to seek FERC approval to transfer grid‑capacity rights from its Eddystone plant to overcome potential PJM interconnection delays that could otherwise push grid upgrades into the 2030s.

4/1/2026 - United States - Holtec International has completed passivation of the Palisades plant’s primary system, bringing it to operating temperature and pressure for the first time since the reactor shut down in 2022; the system will now be cooled for further testing, equipment upgrades, and preparations for fuel loading.

Europe

3/31/26 - Poland - Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe has submitted a construction‑permit application to Poland’s National Atomic Energy Agency for the country’s first nuclear power plant, including a comprehensive Preliminary Safety Analysis Report, marking a major regulatory milestone as Poland advances its nuclear build programme.

4/2/2026 - UK - The Hunterston B nuclear power station in Scotland has transferred from EDF Energy to UK government ownership, with responsibility moving to the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and its subsidiary Nuclear Restoration Services, marking the first Advanced Gas‑Cooled Reactor plant to enter government ownership as it begins decommissioning. 

Asia and other

3/13/2026 - China - Unit 1 of the San’ao nuclear power plant in Zhejiang, China, successfully connected to the grid on March 12, 2026. This HPR1000 reactor is the first of six planned for the site and is expected to enter full commercial operation in the first half of 2026.

3/16/2026 - Russia - The first VVER-TOI unit at Russia’s Kursk II plant has reached 100% power during commissioning. The 1,250 MWe reactor is undergoing final safety tests and is expected to enter commercial operation later in 2026. This new fleet will replace the site’s aging RBMK reactors, with all four units planned to be operational by 2034.

3/23/2026 - Vietnam - Vietnam and Russia have signed an intergovernmental agreement to build the Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant, planned to use two VVER‑1200 reactors based on the Leningrad NPP‑2 design; the deal establishes the legal framework for the project and marks Vietnam’s restart of its nuclear programme following government approval in 2024.

3/27/2026 - Taiwan - Taipower has applied to Taiwan’s Nuclear Safety Council to restart the two‑unit Maanshan nuclear power plant after their 40‑year operating licenses expired, following a legal change allowing 20‑year license extensions; the submission initiates a procedural and technical review process, with additional safety inspections expected to take roughly 18–24 months before any potential return to service.

3/31/2026 - Bangladesh - Rooppur Unit 1 has successfully completed boron flushing of its primary circuit systems, a key pre‑commissioning milestone ahead of first criticality, clearing the way for nuclear fuel loading, which is scheduled to take place in April as Bangladesh’s first nuclear power reactor moves toward initial start‑up.

3/31/2026 - South Korea - South Korea’s Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has approved the restart of Kori Unit 2, allowing the 685 MWe PWR—offline since April 2023 after its original 40‑year license expired—to resume operations following completion of inspections and safety upgrades under its extended operating permit through 2033.

4/7/2026 - India - India’s 500 MWe PFBR at Kalpakkam reached first criticality on 6 April, marking a key milestone in the country’s second stage of its three‑stage nuclear programme and advancing plans for a closed fuel cycle centred on thorium.

SMR announcement tracker

3/5/2026 - United States - The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a construction permit for TerraPower’s first Natrium plant in Kemmerer, Wyoming. Per the NRC, this is the first approval in more than 40 years for a commercial non‑light‑water reactor; the 345 MWe sodium‑cooled fast reactor, which includes molten‑salt energy storage, can now begin nuclear construction, with a separate operating license still required before generation.

3/18/2026 - United States - Oklo has received US Department of Energy approval for Nuclear Safety Design Agreements covering both its Aurora powerhouse pilot reactor at Idaho National Laboratory and Atomic Alchemy’s Groves Isotopes Test Reactor in Texas, allowing both projects to move into the next phase of licensing under the DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, with NRC licensing to follow for commercial operations.

3/19/2026 - Sweden - Blykalla is advancing plans for a lead‑cooled SMR plant in Norrsundet, Sweden, after studies confirmed the site’s suitability; the project would deploy six SEALER reactors totaling about 300 MW to supply fossil‑free power, with permitting expected to start later this year and potential operation in the early 2030s, subject to approvals.

3/20/2026 - United States - Aalo Atomics has completed assembly of its Critical Test Reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory, unveiling the experimental Aalo‑X reactor and targeting criticality well before the 4 July deadline under the US DOE’s Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program; the reactor serves as a precursor to Aalo’s planned 50 MWe extra‑modular reactors for data centres, with final startup pending fuel delivery and DOE approval.

3/20/2026 - United States - X‑energy has signed a letter of intent with Talen Energy to assess deploying multiple XE‑100 SMR plants in Pennsylvania and across the PJM market, potentially developing three or more four‑unit plants to add clean baseload capacity; the companies will carry out early‑stage feasibility studies and site evaluations, including opportunities to repower existing fossil‑fuel sites using established infrastructure, transmission, and workforce resources.

3/23/2026 - Sweden - Kärnfull Next has submitted Sweden’s first application under the new Act on Government Approval of Nuclear Facilities to build an SMR campus in Valdemarsvik, southeastern Sweden, covering a planned four‑to‑six‑unit light‑water reactor site; the project is part of its ReFirm South programme and represents a step from concept to formal permitting aimed at delivering new dispatchable, fossil‑free power, with additional SMR applications expected later this year.

3/24/2026 - Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan and Russia have marked progress on the country’s first SMR project by signing a nuclear cooperation roadmap and beginning initial concrete works for a RITM‑200N reactor at the Jizzakh site; the project now combines two large VVER‑1000 units with two 55 MWe SMRs, establishing the framework for construction, training, and long‑term nuclear development.

3/30/2026 - United States - New Hampshire has launched a formal review of advanced nuclear reactor deployment after Governor Kelly Ayotte issued an executive order directing the state’s Department of Energy to assess regulatory, financial, and market conditions and develop a statewide nuclear energy roadmap to guide potential next‑generation nuclear development.

3/31/2026 - South Africa - South Africa’s Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa) has launched an Expression of Interest to identify technology partners for the development and demonstration of a small modular reactor, aiming to assess mature SMR designs and financing models as part of its strategy to position the country in the global SMR supply chain and support future deployment.

3/31/2026 - UK - Holtec International’s SMR‑300 small modular reactor design has completed Step 2 of the UK Generic Design Assessment, with regulators concluding there are no fundamental safety, security, safeguards, or environmental protection issues that would prevent its deployment in Great Britain.

4/2/2026 - Canada - OPG has applied to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission for a 20‑year operating license for the first BWRX‑300 SMR at the Darlington New Nuclear Project, a step required to complete commissioning and begin operation once construction is finished; the application will be decided following a public hearing.

Global reactor critical updates

In the month of March, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.

Global reactor construction tracker

Global reactors under construction

China only

Fuel announcements

3/9/2026 - United States - Oklo and Centrus Energy are exploring a joint venture focused on HALEU deconversion services and advanced nuclear fuel‑cycle technologies, with proposed activities co‑located at Centrus’s Piketon, Ohio site to integrate enrichment and deconversion, improve efficiency, and expand domestic advanced nuclear fuel capacity to support Oklo’s reactors and broader US deployment.

3/11/2026 - United States - Framatome and NuScale Power have expanded their long‑standing fuel partnership to include Framatome’s European fabrication facilities, establishing a global supply chain to support NuScale’s SMR deployments in both the US and Europe; the agreement also advances qualification of Framatome’s Richland, Washington plant to produce NuScale’s NuFUEL‑HTP2 fuel, with deliveries for the first US customer targeted from around 2030.

3/12/2026 - UK - Urenco reported its order book has reached a record €21.3 billion, up about 14% year‑on‑year, with enrichment contracts now extending into the 2040s, reflecting strong demand for nuclear fuel services amid rising political and utility support for nuclear power in Europe and North America.

3/20/2026 - Belgium - Framatome has signed a contract with Belgium’s SCK CEN to supply high‑density silicide low‑enriched uranium fuel for the BR2 research reactor as it transitions away from high‑enriched uranium, following successful irradiation of lead test assemblies delivered in 2025.

3/23/2026 - United States - Uranium Energy Corp has expanded uranium production at its Christensen Ranch ISR mine in Wyoming by bringing new header houses into operation, while its subsidiary United States Uranium Refining & Conversion Corp has passed the first licensing milestone for a planned US uranium conversion facility; the developments support higher domestic uranium output and advance UEC’s strategy to rebuild a vertically integrated US nuclear fuel supply chain.

3/30/2026 - United States - FluxPoint Energy, plans to develop what it expects will be the first new uranium conversion facility in the US in about 70 years, aiming to convert uranium oxide U3O8 into UF6 to strengthen domestic nuclear fuel supply security, with first production targeted for 2030–2031.

4/1/2026 - Ukraine - Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has approved a plan to build a domestic nuclear fuel assembly production facility, giving Energoatom the go‑ahead to design and construct a plant using Westinghouse technology in the Mykolaiv region, a move aimed at strengthening fuel security and advancing Ukraine toward a self‑sufficient nuclear fuel cycle.

Uranium pricing and volume trackers

Spot pricing starting to stabilize. Spot pricing continued its downward trend through much of March following February’s pullback, easing from the high‑$86/lb level at the start of the month to the low‑to‑mid $80s by the second half. Prices declined steadily through mid‑ and late‑March, briefly dipping below ~$84/lb, before stabilizing toward month‑end around ~$84/lb. Spot market activity picked up modestly relative to February but remained well below January levels, with flows largely driven by traders rather than utilities. Financial participation remained intermittent, with SPUT activity episodic rather than sustained. Despite softer pricing through March, year‑to‑date spot volumes in 2026 remain meaningfully ahead of last year, reflecting a stronger start to the year overall.

Term pricing holds strong. Term uranium pricing remained firm through March, holding at ~$90/lb following February’s step‑up, reinforcing the view that pricing has reset to a higher plateau. While reported term contracting activity was limited during the month, engagement remained active, with utilities continuing to evaluate both mid‑ and long‑term offers across uranium (U₃O₈), conversion, and EUP. Market color pointed to continued upward pressure on offer structures, with floor prices largely holding in the mid‑$70s and ceiling prices stretching into the low‑$130s and beyond for longer‑dated deliveries. Overall, March was characterized by constructive sentiment in term markets but limited execution, as buyers remained selective amid elevated price levels.

KAP earnings update. On 3/20/26, KAP held its 4Q25 earnings call where management reiterated its production guidance of 27,500-29,000 tU (71.5-75.4mn lbs), with the midpoint ~5% below its subsoil use contract annual production of 29,697 tU.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 06:55

Roblox Rolls Out Restricted Accounts For Under-16 Users Amid Lawsuit, Social Media Ban

Zero Hedge -

Roblox Rolls Out Restricted Accounts For Under-16 Users Amid Lawsuit, Social Media Ban

Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

While managing to avoid Australia’s under-16 social media ban, the global game creation platform Roblox has moved to introduce restricted accounts for children and teenagers.

A 7-year-old teenage boy looks at a photo screen with Roblox, a social media networking app that will not be age-restricted in Sydney, Australia on Dec. 7, 2025. George Chan/Getty Images

The move also comes in the wake of a lawsuit from Los Angeles County alleging it does not carry out adequate moderation and that its age-verification systems are not fit for purpose.

The suit claims that, as a result, young people were exposed to sexual content, exploitation, and online predators while playing the game.

It joined more than 60 other actions brought by players or their parents, the majority from families in the United States.

Roblox founder and CEO, David Baszucki, announced the changes online, saying an update to the platform will bring age checks, account-level defaults, content ratings, ongoing moderation, and expanded parental controls together into a “unified framework for younger users.”

“Based on our selection criteria, we believe age-checked users under 16 will have access to the vast majority of their favourite games at launch. Age-checked users 16 and older will not see any change to their Roblox experience,” Baszucki said.

With over 151 million active players every day, Roblox has become one of the most popular online platforms ever.

Users will now be sorted into one of three groups: Kids’ accounts (ages 5 to 8), Select accounts (ages 9 to 15) and those aged 16 and above, who will have access to the standard Roblox account.

Users between the ages of five and eight will be assigned to a Kid’s account by the platform’s systems, either based on a verified parent or its worldwide age-check technology, which includes facial recognition. They will be limited to games with a “minimal” or “mild” content maturity label, and communication will be disabled by default.

A screenshot of the different Roblox editions available depending on age group. Screenshot/Roblox website

Roblox Select accounts will be able to access games with content maturity labels up to and including “moderate” and chat room functions will be gradually introduced with safeguards, allowing them to chat with family and friends or those that are a similar age.

Each of the two new levels will have a distinct background colour across the app to indicate the account type.

Roblox Chief Safety Officer Matt Kaufman told GamesBeat that there should be coordination between platforms.

“There has to be some coordination, some minimum bar we expect all companies to clear when you involve kids and teens. The reality is, they’re just jumping from platform to platform. That’s normal. I have two kids who have grown up online. It’s just what they do.”

Despite the action against it in the United States, Roblox was not among the platforms Australia’s eSafety Commissioner said she would be investigating for potential non-compliance with Australia’s social media ban.

Those were Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok and YouTube, all of which are currently restricted platforms under the law, which has now been in place for 4 months.

Government Welcomes Changes

Meanwhile, Australian Communications Minister Anika Wells welcomed the Roblox announcement. She has previously met with representatives of the platform and expressed concerns over graphic content and reports of grooming.

“We made it clear to Roblox that something had to be done,” she told journalists, “and I welcome these steps towards stronger safety measures on their platform for under-16s, not just in Australia, but globally. Kids should be able to play their favourite games without being exposed to harmful content.

“We will closely watch the rollout of Roblox’s changes to make sure they create a meaningful difference to the experience of young Australians on their platforms.”

She dismissed concerns that young people have continued to circumvent the restrictions—including by reportedly drawing on facial hair—saying it’s no surprise.

“There isn’t 100 percent effectiveness for the law against murdering people in this country; people still murder [yet] no one is making an argument that we shouldn’t have a law against murdering people in this country,” she said.

“We’ve always said cultural change takes time, and we will not get a 100 percent strike rate, or anything like it, for any amount of time shortly after the ban comes in.

“The law is important because it sets a cultural standard.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 06:30

Europe Drafts Pie In The Sky Plan To Free Up Hormuz Without 'Belligerent' Parties

Zero Hedge -

Europe Drafts Pie In The Sky Plan To Free Up Hormuz Without 'Belligerent' Parties

This is quite the ambitious headline revealing the latest 'plan' for Hormuz to come out of Europe, as it sits on the sidelines watching the US get potentially bogged down in the region following a month of heavy airstrikes on Iran: Europe drafts postwar plan to free up Strait of Hormuz without US, WSJ reports.

This is apparently a plan for after the main crisis is over, amid the strait still being blockaded (with the each warring side insisting it is they in control of the strategic chokepoint waterway). It seems the main idea is to eventually take the United States out of the equation, allowing only for the 'neutral' countries to free up and clean the Hormuz Strait.

Both the Iranians & Americans still step aside & tiny French warships will move in?

But the whole thing is very strange - on the one hand, it purports to keep one of the key belligerents, namely the United States, at bay - while on the other envisioning European/NATO military ships engaged in freedom navigation operations, including some mine-clearing.

For example, there is this line from the Journal report: "French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn't include the 'belligerent' parties, meaning the US, Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn't be under American command."

According to a Newsquawk summary of the WSJ main highlights: 

—European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude the US.

—Some differences must still be worked: French diplomats think that any US involvement in the operation would make it less palatable to Tehran, while British officials worry that not including the Americans will anger Trump and limit the operation's scope.

—The plan has three broad aims:

1) put logistics in place to ensure the hundreds of ships currently stuck in the strait can leave.

2) Employ a major demining operation to clear the way for a far larger number of ships to use a broader part of the strait.

3) Removing Iranian mines in Hormuz is crucial to getting ships going again.

The reality is that this supposed plan brings things back full circle to problem #1... as it's not as if either Iran, or the United States, will simply shrug and cede control so that a European military coalition can step in and take over.

Which side will ever actually agree to this? The obvious answer, at least for the time being and foreseeable future is... nobody.

And then there's the question of what leverage or force will Europe employ to assert its military presence in the strait in order to keep all parties in line... some mere harsh language and strong words?

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/15/2026 - 05:45

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