Kamikaze Drone Slams Into Crowded Russian Black Sea Beach, Killing 3

The Russia-Ukraine war has dangerously spilled over into the Black Sea, with cargo ships, tankers, and oil and gas infrastructure being targeted by both sides. The sharp escalation in fighting across the region has also come at a cost to civilians.

Shocking video circulating on X Monday morning appears to show a Ukrainian suicide drone striking a crowded beach in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Gelendzhik.

Russian media outlet Interfax reports that three people were killed and more than a dozen injured "when a drone crashed in the village of Arkhipo-Osipovka near Gelendzhik."

The outlet continued:

"A tragedy has occurred in Gelendzhik. Three people were killed in the village of Arkhipo-Osipovka due to falling UAV debris, according to preliminary information. (...) Another 13 people, including children, were injured. They are receiving necessary medical care," Kondratyev wrote on his Max channel.

He noted that the attack targeted civilian infrastructure. Emergency and special services are working at the drone wreckage sites.

Footage:

In Gelendzhik, Russia, a drone crashed directly onto a beach with tourists.

At least 3 people were killed and 13 others injured. pic.twitter.com/UAhg7uSBPH

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 3, 2026

Audio from the footage appears to capture Russian air-defense forces firing on the incoming drone moments before it struck the crowded beach. It remains unclear whether civilians were deliberately targeted or whether the drone was damaged by automatic fire, causing it to deviate from its intended flight path.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:00

Futures Rise As Oil Plunge Helps Yields Ease From Nosebleed Highs; All Eyes On Yentervention

Futures are higher with both tech and small caps outperforming as Trump points to a deal/advanded discussions with Iran (which Iran is naturally denying), which is helping push energy prices and bond yields lower as the USD depreciates. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% led by Mag 7 stocks higher with Semis lagging. Energy is lower with the remaining sectors seeing a bid pre-mkt as the lower oil / bond yields are creating what JPM hopes will be an ‘Everything Rally’. Though the Kospi against tumbled overnight, EWY is +1% pre-market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged nearly 9% each, while TSMC fell more than 2%, following their record surge on Friday.  The yen rallied sharply before paring most of the gain amid speculation that authorities may have intervened to prop up the currency again after coordinated action between the US and Japan last week. Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar fell 0.1%. WTI is under $80/bbl dragging the Energy complex lower as we see this move boosting both Base and Precious Metals with Ags lower. Today’s macro data focus is opn the final July reading of S&P Global manufacturing PMI due at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by ISM manufacturing for July and construction spending for June at 10 a.m. Omdia total vehicle sales are due through the day.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher:  Amazon (AMZN) rises 1.6% as the e-commerce and cloud-computing company is set to extend gains after reporting cloud revenue acceleration for a fifth straight quarter (Alphabet +1.7%, Microsoft +1.8%, Meta +1.6%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple +0.6%, Nvidia -0.3%)

• Atkore (ATKR) jumps 27% after Prysmian agreed to buy the electrical-infrastructure products maker for $95 a share in cash, valuing the firm at $3.8 billion, including debt.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) gains 5% as AstraZeneca Plc has explored an acquisition of the company, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares fall 5.7% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation to underweight, citing lower expectations for the circulation of the company’s stablecoins in the future.
• CNH Industrial (CNH) rises 5% after the manufacturer of tractors and harvesters boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) rises 8% as the plumbing and HVAC supplies company is set to replace Electronic Arts in the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading Aug. 5.
• Marriott International (MAR) falls 3% after the hotel operator posted disappoingint second-quarter revenue.
• Krystal Biotech (KRYS) falls 7% after biopharmaceutical company reported net product revenues for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
• Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) and Indivior Pharmaceuticals (INDV) rise after the companies agreed to combine in a tax-free all-stock merger of equals. Supernus jumps 17% while Indivior is up 8%.
• Sportradar Group (SRAD) falls 14% after the sports data provider cut its revenue guidance for the full year.

In other AI news, Alibaba released its biggest ever AI model, Qwen3.8-Max, claiming performance on par with global leader Anthropic and ranking higher on several benchmarks than the headline-grabbing Kimi K3 from Moonshot. More than 90% of companies, meanwhile, are blowing through their AI budgets, according to a recent McKinsey survey.

Middle East hostilities, AI stock valuations and inflation fears continue to dominate markets, but traders are also looking ahead to the key US July jobs report on Friday for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. SpaceX’s first earnings release since its record-breaking IPO is on Tuesday, while European heavyweights including HSBC Holdings Plc and Novo Nordisk A/S are also reporting.

Currency markets are front and center in terms of drama today, with news that the US and Japan took joint action to help lift the yen from its four-decade low, and Bessent vowing that the US “will not hesitate” to do more if needed, although it appears that after $100BN or so in FX intervention in the past two days, the USDJPY is once again moving higher, as it should as no amount of one-time intervention can stop its inevitable collapse.

It’s a busy week for calendar events, with a slew of labor market data leading up to Friday’s payrolls report, and more big earnings including SpaceX’s inaugural report as a public company. In deals, the weekend brought news that AstraZeneca has explored an acquisition of Bristol Myers Squibb. That combination would create one of the world’s largest drugmakers, though it’s unclear if discussions are still ongoing.

Brent crude tumbled after Trump reversed his Friday (after the close of course) threat of massive attacks, instead saying fresh US-Iran talks would begin Monday, boosting optimism the two sides may reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iranian officials saying there were no ongoing talks with Washington. What really happened is that Trump called off a planned attack on Iran in response to pleas from allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. Adding to the positive sentiment, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks between his country and Oman were in the final stages of agreeing on a new route through Hormuz.

“Geopolitical news is helping out with oil prices going down and easing pressure on yields,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “There is, however, a real lingering issue on bond yields, on leverage, on Fed policy: until there’s clarity on these fronts, it’s hard to say that the stock market is all clear.”

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that the momentum selloff in AI stocks is likely over, and he expects US stock market leadership to rotate toward companies with stable earnings and strong margins. Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte, meanwhile, reckons the rotation back into tech stocks that started last week has further to run.

That said, volatility remains top of mind. The growing popularity of leveraged ETFs has led to a surge in demand for “crash puts” and other exotic derivatives, which allow banks to hedge against potential losses. The SOX Index had intraday swings of at least 2% every trading day last month, something that hasn’t happened since 2020.

The shakiness of the tech trade, and an underwhelming response to big tech earnings, means that the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since the start of the earnings season. That’s despite US firms being on track to post a 29% surge in quarterly EPS, among the highest on record outside of post-crisis recovery years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Earnings revisions have seen net upgrades for 15 weeks in a row, the longest streak since 2022, according to a Citigroup index.

In other assets, bond investors say the risk of a deeper Treasury rout is rising as Fed Chair Warsh keeps investors in the dark about how officials will respond to the evolving economy. One explanation for why rates went higher after the Fed presentation, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok, is that markets understand the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation, but with no forward guidance, don’t understand how it will get there. 

Marriott International, Loews and Tyson Foods are among companies scheduled to report before the market open. Worldwide RevPar at Marriott is expected to grow about 3% in constant-currency, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings from Palantir and Vertex Pharma are due later in the day.

European stocks advance, with travel and auto shares in the lead, as signs of progress between the US and Iran spurred a retreat in oil prices. Energy as well as food and beverage stocks are the biggest laggards. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.3% to 651.26. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• A UBS basket of European airline stocks rises as much as 3.5% on Monday as a slide in Brent crude futures soothed concerns of higher jet fuel prices
• Clarkson shares jump as much as 16% to an all-time high after the British shipping group reported first-half results way ahead of expectations and said it expected similar outturn for full-year
• PostNL gains as much as 10%, the most since September, after the Dutch mail firm delivers what KBC Securities describes as a “resilient set” of first-half results
• Corbion rallies as much as 5.9%, the most since mid-June, as Oddo BHF upgrades the Dutch food ingredients firm to outperform, saying Friday’s guidance reset de-risks the investment case
• Mersen rallies as much as 14% in Paris, after Berenberg upgraded to buy, noting a first-half earnings beat and upgraded guidance at the electronics manufacturer, driven by growth in its power division
• RWS shares rise as much as 15%, their steepest climb since April, after the AI solutions company said it had entered into a binding agreement to buy Acolad
• Ipsen shares fall as much as 3.8% after Jefferies downgraded its rating on the drugmaker to underperform from hold, saying investors are underestimating the long-term competitive threat to its key drug Somatuline from Camurus’ CAM2029
• AstraZeneca shares fall as much as 7.8% to the lowest intraday since October, as analysts questioned the strategic rationale of a possible deal between the British drugmaker and Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Sobi) falls as much as 5.1%, the most since December, after the company announced that CEO Guido Oelkers has decided to step down to take up another position outside the company

Asian stocks retreated at the start of a new month, with South Korea’s heavyweight chipmakers sliding again after a dizzying rally on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.7%, paring an earlier loss of 1.3%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged nearly 9% each, while TSMC fell more than 2%. The Kospi slumped 5.1% following an unprecedented 18% surge on Friday. Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed stock jumped the most since early July after releasing its latest flagship AI model, lending some support to the regional gauge. Stocks in Japan also declined as automakers and other exporters dropped amid concerns about a stronger yen, following joint currency intervention with the US. Traders remain on high alert for further moves by the authorities. Benchmarks in India and the Philippines were among gainers. 

In FX, the Japanese yen remains in focus after strengthening overnight following reports that around $34 billion was spent in Friday’s intervention to support the currency. Still, showing just how powerless such interventions are, the yen erased most of its earlier upside although is still outperforming G-10 peers, rising 0.2% against the greenback despite and nearly $100BN in joint US-Japan interventions on Thursday and Friday. The dollar fell as much as 1.4% to 155.23 yen in Monday trading, the fourth-straight day of lower USD/JPY, before paring losses at 156.92. The greenback gained against other G10 currencies.

“This intervention does not change the fundamentals of a Fed close to hiking and Tokyo running a loose set of monetary and fiscal policies, which are weighing on the yen,” said Chris Turner, head of markets at ING. “We struggle to see this bilateral action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155,” he says; but it limits investors “from chasing USD/JPY through 160 and buys time for Tokyo to introduce more yen-positive policies”

In rates, treasuries are extending gains into the early US session amid tumbling oil prices after President Donald Trump over the weekend called off a threatened major attack on Iran, while Tehran suggested that talks to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress. US 10-year yields fall 6 bps to 4.68% after rising to a year-to-date high on Friday. Gilts lead gains in European government bonds, with UK 10-year borrowing costs falling 9 bps and back below 5%. Treasury yields richer by 4bp to 6bp across the curve with long-end lagging slightly, steepening 5s30s and 10s30s spreads by more than 1bp; 10-year yields is around 4.68% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1bp and 3bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. This week’s dealer forecasts call for a sharp pickup vs last week, with about $50 billion of new US investment-grade transactions projected. Dealers forecast about $130 billion of new US investment-grade debt offerings in August vs $99.55 billion in August 2025

In commodities, Brent crude futures drop 4.8% to near $84 a barrel after Trump said new talks with Iran would begin on Monday after calling off a planned attack. Precious metals rise with spot silver up about 1%. Bitcoin falls 1.3%.

Today's US economic data calendar includes July final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), July ISM manufacturing and June construction spending (10am). Ahead this week are JOLTS job openings, ISM services and July jobs report. No Fed speakers are scheduled for Monday; appearances are scheduled later this week by Schmid, Cook, Daly, Musalem, Barkin and Bowman.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• A private gauge showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July, remaining in expansion territory and broadly echoing the official factory survey, which signaled a contraction. The RatingDog general manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.9 in last month, down from 51.7 in June, according to a statement released Monday. WSJ
• A version of Chinese startup DeepSeek's flagship AI model is by ‌far the least expensive to run on benchmark tests among well-known models globally and more than 100 times cheaper to run than Anthropic's Claude Fable 5, according to a research firm. RTRS
• The yen rallied on talk of fresh intervention after last week’s coordinated US-Japan campaign. The two governments said they would not hesitate to move again after their first joint yen action in 15 years. Japan likely spent around $34 billion on Friday’s FX intervention. BBG
• OPEC and its allies pressed ahead with another oil production increase, a move that would complete the group’s planned return of voluntarily withheld barrels to the market while setting the stage for potentially difficult talks over future quotas. WSJ
• The US Senate unveiled a bipartisan stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded through Dec. 11 and avert a shutdown this fall. BBG
• Oil slumped and futures rose as Donald Trump called off strikes on Iran and said talks on a deal would begin today. Iran denied it’s currently negotiating with the US but suggested an agreement with Oman on routes through the Strait of Hormuz may be close. BBG
• Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh this week floated to colleagues the prospect of meeting less often, which would mark a substantial shift in its operations, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
• AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb held merger talks, people familiar said. The megadeal would create one of the world’s biggest pharmaceutical groups, valued at almost $400 billion. FT
• California’s Democratic Party has endorsed the state’s proposed billionaire tax, marking a win for its advocates three months before Californians vote on the measure. WSJ

Top Iran News

• US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
• In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there's a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.
• US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.
• US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNN
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran's readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
• Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.
• Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.
• UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.
• Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
• Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
• Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief from Trump's cancellation of Iran strikes, with a mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets also digested weak Chinese PMI data and confirmation of joint US-Japan intervention on the yen. ASX 200 was ultimately flat, with underperformance in energy, real estate and financials offset by resilience in defensives. Nikkei 225 retreated amid increased rate hike bets following last week's hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference, while there were also headwinds from a firmer currency after the US and Japan confirmed they jointly intervened to support the yen on Friday. KOSPI underperformed amid weakness in its tech heavyweights and with participants digesting earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid divergences in the tech sector as hyperscalers advanced with Alibaba shares among today's best performers after launching its Qwen 3.8 Max AI model, while chipmakers were pressured. Meanwhile, the mainland was subdued following disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data and as US-China frictions lingered, with MOFCOM criticising the US addition of Chinese companies to its forced labour entities list.

Top Asian News

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted "Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements.Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention."
• Japan's Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen buying intervention with the US on Friday and won't hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US, adding intervention was to address recent excessive and disorderly moves in the yen.
• Japan top currency diplomat Mimura said they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention, adding joint intervention could be seen as the culmination of US-Japan currency alliance, and will continue to work closely with the BoJ.
• US President Trump, when asked regarding US intervening in the yen, said the US is intervening because the US has a good relationship with Japan, and we're always there for Japan, adding the US is getting financial benefit out of the arrangement.
• BoJ data suggested Japan conducted around JPY 5.3tln of currency intervention on Friday; July's money market conditions account shows a shortfall of around 11.4tln.
• PBoC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy throughout H2 2026, with a focus on interest rate supervision, according to CCTV.

European bourses start the week broadly higher across the board, helped by the announcement by US President Trump over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy benchmarks have dropped as a result, with the broader Energy sector lower by 1.4%. Elsewhere, EZ and UK Manufacturing PMIs were ticked lower. Within the broader EZ release, S&P stated that new work inflows remain worryingly weak and that the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline figure (51.9) suggests. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Autos is the clear outperformer, followed by Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services. Outside of Energy, Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Health Care are the sector laggards. On a quiet day of European earnings, there have been a lot of M&A stories. Starting with the biggest story of the day, the FT reported that AstraZeneca have been in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a potential merger, which would be the biggest pharma deal of all time. Shares of Astra have slumped by over 7% at one point, with BMY shares up over 7% pre-market. However, the merger will come under tough antitrust scrutiny, according to analysts at BMO, due to the significant business overlap between the Co.'s cancer drug portfolios. In other M&A moves: Prysmian (-1.8%), acquires Atkore (+26% pre-market) for USD 3.8bln; BMPS (+0.2%), considering the acquisition of Banco BPM according to the FT; Ageas (+2.4%), sells its minority stake in Eqita for c. USD 1.2bln; Holcim (-1.7%), sells its Philippines business for at least USD 807mln.

Top European News

• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.5).
• EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 51.4).
• German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 50.3).
• French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 51.2).
• Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.3 vs Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.2).
• Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.2 vs Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 49.7).
• German Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%).
• German Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%).
• Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) Y/Y 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%).
• Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0%).

FX

• G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck bar EUR (-0.1%) and JPY (+0.3%). NOK (-0.9%) underperforms amid sharply lower oil prices.
• USD is firmer against most G10 peers except the Yen, whose gains are sufficient to keep DXY unchanged. A lot of moving parts, including geopolitics and Treasury action in FX markets. Geopolitics remain bearish for the USD, with Brent Oct'26 down ~7% after the US cancelled planned strikes on Iran and anticipates negotiations to resume today. Aside from this (and geopolitics) is incoming negotiations commentary and some US data, including the July ISM manufacturing release. DXY found buyers below 99.50 and the 100 DMA at 99.70. The next region to watch is around 100, which has proven sticky throughout the last few sessions.
• No real move seen in the EUR to the final EZ manufacturing PMI read, where revised metrics were broadly unchanged despite the revision period coinciding with energy upside related to the breakdown of the US-Iran MoU. Within the EZ-wide release, commentary downplayed the strong figure, noting "factories continue to reduce headcounts.... the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline numbers might suggest." EUR/USD gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 1.1520 base; the 50 DMA is likely to be supported at 1.1480. EUR/JPY gradually moved higher amid profit-taking around 180. Elsewhere, FT reported that the US Treasury intervened in the market by buying JPY for EUR.
• Several factors continue to buoy the JPY after roughly 5% gains against the Buck over the past three sessions. Remarks from top FX diplomat Mimura coincided with USD/JPY downside overnight. He noted "they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention" and "will respond to FX in coordination with monetary policy", implying the BoJ should continue policy normalisation in reflection of the currency; remarks which pushed the pair to a 155.26 base, a level not seen since May where the low was 155.03. JPMorgan sees little chance coordinated intervention would drive a sustained rally that pushes the pair below 150, while ING said it struggles to see the action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155.

Fixed Income

• The marked pullback in energy has weighed on yields, with fixed benchmarks firmer (ex-JGBs) across the board. No substantial move to Final PMIs or the morning’s other data points. Instead, we await details from the new round of US-Iran negotiations from this afternoon, and look back on themes from last week and the weekend; namely, JPY intervention & Fed reports/commentary.
• Bunds as high as 124.80, firmer by 40 ticks, but shy of the 124.94 peak from Friday and then a handful of levels from early last week between 125.04-25. Fleeting upside on a particularly poor German retail sales series this morning. Thereafter, Germany’s final Manufacturing PMI was unrevised, and showed an “impressive start” to Q3. However, caveats apply to this and were neatly surmised in the downwardly-revised EZ series, with new work inflows weak and as such headcounts continue to be reduced.
• Gilts, as is usually the case amid energy-driven moves, outperform. Firmer by over 60 ticks, but also shy of levels from early last week, with a double-top at 87.24 the first point vs today’s 87.12 high. Thereafter, 87.32 and 87.51 come into view. For the UK, specifics light, focus on energy as alluded to, no move to the Final Manufacturing PMI which saw a downward revision and somewhat mixed commentary. While the broader focus remains the global policy backdrop, after Bailey pushed back on edging toward a hike (keeping the extended hold narrative in play) vs commentary from and reporting around the Fed.
• USTs at a 108-16 peak, yet to test the 108-20+ to 108-30 highs from last week. Ahead, the space looks to its own Final Manufacturing PMI before the ISM print and then an AtlantaFed update, in addition to Treasury financing estimates. Looking back, the late-Friday & weekend focus was on geopolitics which has driven the bulk of action (see Commodities), alongside commentary from and reporting around the Fed. Musalem said the UST sell off sent a signal that credibility must be earned via communication and action. Additionally, the NYT reported that Chair Warsh is considering, and raised at the last meeting, reducing the number of policy meetings from the current eight. The latter points are potentially keeping US yields somewhat bid, and perhaps explain why USTs are yet to test the highs from last week, in contrast to peers.
• Finally, JGBs are under pressure. The benchmark opened higher and climbed to a 126.96 peak early on, before reversing and falling to 126.74 and since a 126.63 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks at most. A reversal that came as the US and Japan formally confirmed the joint JPY action last week, and kept open the possibility of further intervention. Amidst this, and driving JGBs lower, FX Chief Mimura added that there is a “shared understanding with the BoJ” on the topic. Following this, Japanese short-end yields have climbed and the odds of a hike in September have increased to c. 50%, while October is over 90% implied for a hike.

Commodities

• Over the weekend, President Trump said the US had been fully prepared to launch a major military strike against Iran but agreed to pause the operation after requests from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, claiming that the outline of a deal had been reached involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and progress toward ending Iran’s nuclear programme, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. Reports indicated that US CENTCOM had prepared a large-scale two-week bombing campaign if diplomacy failed. However, Iranian officials have since rejected the suggestion that direct US-Iran talks are underway.
• Since then, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is negotiating only with Oman, with no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days, while an Iranian lawmaker said there are no discussions with Washington or negotiations on the nuclear issue. Talks with Oman are reportedly progressing constructively on a new framework for safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the exchange of maps over the past seven to eight days and plans for a temporary security corridor. Iranian officials have also continued consultations with Saudi and Pakistani counterparts, while warning the US against military action and stressing that Iranian forces remain on full alert. Meanwhile, two explosions were reported near commercial vessels off Oman’s Khasab without causing damage or casualties.
• WTI and Brent futures slumped some 6% at the open following Trump’s conditional cancellation of strikes on Iran. Prices have remained weak, with WTI Sep'26 sliding from Friday’s near-USD 87/bbl to open at USD 80.10/bbl this morning and then to a current Monday trough at USD 78.78/bbl. Brent Oct'26 hit a peak of USD 91.36/bbl on Friday, before opening today at USD 82.80/bbl, whilst the intraday low print currently resides at USD 81.55/bbl.
• Metals are mostly firmer as the slump in oil prices provides some reprieve for the space, although the USD has since clambered off lows and risen back above its 100 DMA (99.72). As such, spot gold resides towards the bottom end of a USD 4,047.35-4,079.19/oz range but above Friday’s USD 4,045.17/oz close. Spot silver oscillates in a USD 57.59/oz to USD 58.63/oz range at the time of writing, above Friday’s USD 57.63/oz close.
• 3M LME copper trades within a narrow 13,800.60- 13,903.00/t range, with gains capped as participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
• BoK reportedly plans to purchase domestically refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years due to geopolitical risks, Korea Economic Daily reported.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• Russia struck three ships carrying military goods in the Black Sea.
• Russian Transport Ministry said it is taking measures to ensure the safety of navigation and to protect ships in the Azov-Black Sea basin due to drone attacks, RIA reported.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We start August with the biggest story in macro markets at the moment being the Yen. It started with the suspected FX intervention on Thursday, which helped the yen to a +4.09% weekly gain against the dollar, its biggest in almost two years. That intervention was coordinated with the US, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying the yen seemed “very undervalued”, while on Friday we saw reporting that the NY Fed carried out a rate check on the yen against the euro. This coordinated intervention has now been confirmed. The Yen is another +0.6% stronger this morning but was +1.4% stronger earlier in the session after a spike higher that could have been more intervention. Remember in our 2026 Mapping the World’s Prices (link here) published in mid-July we highlighted how astonishingly cheap Japan was on a global basis. While no guarantee of when this would change, it felt like one of the most obvious medium-term trades in markets and still does. We’ll see how this story develops.

Meanwhile the latest around Iran is that hopes have risen over the weekend of a diplomatic off-ramp. President Trump said he had cancelled a planned US strike on Iran—described as potentially the largest American attack since World War II—following appeals from key Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, and announced that fresh US-Iran talks would begin today. At the same time, Iranian officials indicated that negotiations with Oman over arrangements relating to the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages. Markets have reacted positively, with Brent crude falling -5.2% this morning to $83.38/bbl. US Treasury yields are 3-5bps lower across the curve. 

S&P (+0.61%), Nasdaq (+0.96%) and Stoxx (+0.93%) futures have also rallied this morning although the ongoing tech volatility is holding back the KOSPI (-4.92%) and the Nikkei (-0.93%). The Hang Seng is flat and mainland Chinese markets are down a few tenths of a percent.

The week ahead will be dominated by the US labour market, with the JOLTS report tomorrow, the ADP employment survey on Wednesday, and building up to Friday’s July employment report. Beyond the US, investors will be watching Swiss inflation today, Swedish inflation on Thursday, German activity data throughout the week (culminating in trade and industrial production figures on Friday), Chinese PMI releases on Wednesday ahead of trade data on Friday, and Japanese wage data and BoJ communications on Wednesday before household spending figures on Friday. Meanwhile, earnings season remains in full swing.

Looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will centre on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labour market remains resilient. Our economists expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labour force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours. If realised, those outcomes would leave our economists’ payroll proxy for nominal income growth unchanged at 4.4% year-on-year.

Before Friday’s report, several labour market indicators will help shape expectations. The JOLTS report (tomorrow) and the ADP employment survey (Wednesday) will be closely watched, with our economists expecting ADP employment growth of +60k after +98k previously. Activity indicators will also feature prominently. The ISM manufacturing index (today) is expected to improve to 54.1 from 53.3, while the ISM services index (Wednesday) is forecast at 54.3, little changed from June’s 54.0. Productivity data (Thursday) should provide another read on underlying economic momentum, with our economists forecasting Q2 nonfarm productivity growth of +3.0% and unit labour costs rising by +0.5%.

The policy backdrop remains important. The Fed left rates unchanged last week, but three officials dissented in favour of a hike, highlighting continuing concerns about inflation. Investors will therefore pay close attention to remarks from Governor Cook (Wednesday), as well as speeches from Schmid (Tuesday), Musalem (Thursday) and Barkin (Friday), for any indication of how officials are interpreting the latest data. Our economists continue to expect two further 25bp rate increases this year, in September and December.
Outside the US, Europe’s focus will be split between inflation and activity data. Switzerland releases July CPI today, while Sweden follows with its July inflation report on Thursday. Germany will publish a series of key June indicators throughout the week, including retail sales (today), factory orders (Thursday), and trade and industrial production figures (Friday). Elsewhere, France releases Q2 wage data on Thursday, while euro area producer prices (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday) are also upcoming.

In Asia, after China’s private PMI surveys began with manufacturing data today, this continues with services on Wednesday, before attention turns to July trade figures and foreign reserves on Friday. In Japan, investors will monitor labour cash earnings (Wednesday) and household spending (Friday) for evidence on domestic demand and wage momentum. The Bank of Japan will also publish the minutes of its June meeting on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain another major theme. In the US, reports are due from Palantir (today), SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Toyota (tomorrow), before attention shifts to Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber (Wednesday). European highlights include Novo Nordisk and Siemens Energy (Wednesday), followed by Siemens and Rheinmetall (Thursday), while Japan’s reporting calendar includes SoftBank and Nintendo (Thursday).

Recapping last week now, and rates saw a sharp steepening in the aftermath of the latest central bank decisions, with long-dated yields reaching multi-year highs. The main trigger was the FOMC meeting as Chair Warsh offered little detail on the Fed’s reaction function to accompany the on hold decision. The 2yr Treasury yield fell -4.1bps (+4.5bps Friday) to 4.29% as fed funds futures dialed back pricing of rate hikes by year-end to 37bps (from 44bps the week before).  However, the 10yr yield rose +5.8bps (+6.2bps Friday) to 4.74%, while the 30yr yield rose +11.5bps (+5.9bps Friday) to a post-2007 high of 5.27%. This marked the sharpest weekly steepening of the 2s10s slope since the post-Liberation Day sell off last April.

In Europe, the rates moves were more modest as the ECB held rates steady but signalled that a September hike was probable. 2yr bund yields inched down -0.8bps (+5.7bps Friday) but 10yr bund yields rose +3.4bps following a +5.1bps sell-off on Friday to reach a post-2011 high of 3.20%. Meanwhile, 10yr gilts saw a milder weekly sell off (+1.8bps) as the steady BoE decision was accompanied by rhetoric that the bank wasn’t “edging towards a hike”. A September BoE hike is now 30% priced (down from 61% the week before), while ECB September hike pricing was little changed at near 90%.

Equities saw a solid gain in aggregate, with the S&P 500 advancing +1.05% (+0.70% Friday). But the standout theme was continued volatility around the AI trade, with the Philly semiconductor index ending the week -4.30% lower despite a +8.19% spike on Thursday. The Mag-7 (+4.16%) had a strong but varied week, with Microsoft (+21.75%) and Amazon (+17.00%) surging after their earnings, but Apple (-7.24%) and Meta (-6.47%) losing ground after theirs.

Internationally, the volatility was most extreme for Korea’s KOSPI index, with a +17.91% surge on Friday still leaving the index -1.42% lower on the week after it plunged across Tuesday-Wednesday. European equities outperformed as Brent crude fell by -6.88% to $90.12/bbl in the absence of new material escalation between the US and Iran. A solid Eurozone Q2 real GDP print (+0.4% qoq) also helped, sending the DAX (+2.11%), CAC (+1.64%) and FTSE 100 (+1.23%) to strong advances, though the STOXX 600 (+0.73%) was weighed down by a -8.24% decline for ASML.

Amid the stronger yen (+4.09%) and an on hold BoJ decision, the Nikkei climbed by +4.03% on Friday (-0.39% on the week), while 10yr JGBs (-1.1bps on the week to 2.81%) outperformed global peers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 08:02

$400 Billion Pharma Megadeal? Jefferies Calls Potential AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers Merger A "Head Scratcher"

The Financial Times reported overnight that AstraZeneca has explored acquiring Bristol Myers Squibb in a potential megadeal that would create one of the world's largest drugmakers, with a combined market capitalization of nearly $400 billion.

The report cited people familiar with the matter, while both pharmaceutical giants declined to comment. Some Wall Street desks, however, are struggling to see the strategic rationale behind such a combination.

FT reported:

The companies have held discussions about a tie-up in recent months, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks could yield a deal in the near future but may be delayed or fall apart, the people said.

Bristol, valued at about $133 billion, would expand AstraZeneca's US presence but faces looming patent expirations for Eliquis and Opdivo, which together generate roughly half its sales. AstraZeneca, worth about $264 billion, has increasingly shifted its focus toward the US while retaining its London headquarters and primary listing.

The tie-up of the two could create one of the world's biggest pharmaceutical groups, valued at nearly $400 billion, and comes after AstraZeneca completed a direct listing in New York in June.

Jefferies analysts called the potential deal a "head scratcher," while analysts at HSBC said there would be meaningful headwinds in tying up both pharma giants.

Michael Leuchten at Jefferies provided clients earlier today with a first take on the media report:

AZN for BMS - would be more than a head scratcher

The FT reported overnight that AZN and BMY have been in talks about a potential combination. No details beyond talks have been provided by the FT. Given the strength of AZ's growth and innovation profile, we are a bit perplexed by the news. Of course, financial accretion can look good, and maybe more cash generation would allow for more R&D. But if there is one company that doesn't need financial engineering, it's AZ, in our view.

Sources report potential merger discussions with BMY: The FT reported that AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb have held discussions in recent months about a potential merger that would create a combined company worth approximately $400 billion, making it one of the largest pharmaceutical companies ever and among the largest mergers in corporate history. Sources indicated discussions have taken place, but a deal is far from certain and could still be delayed or abandoned. Neither company has commented on the article.

"Why" is perhaps not yet clear to us: We suspect that most people will focus on the potential to establish an even bigger oncology powerhouse, with the resulting portfolio likely the broadest in the industry. However, beyond the regulatory hurdles, we would argue that pipeline assets could be sourced elsewhere, as AZN has been doing, particularly in China. In addition, Bristol's cardiovascular portfolio is likely to be seen as incremental to AZN's, though the reason to pursue it is not clear to us. One consideration could be a strategic desire to move closer to the US market, given AZ recently changed its US listing. Perhaps more is more, with additional cash to spend on R&D, as when AZ bought Alexion, but using what would be a lot of premium equity to acquire a low-P/E business would seem drastic to us.

Portfolio overlap could attract regulatory scrutiny: Antitrust is likely the biggest hurdle, in our view. Both companies have sizable oncology businesses, and any transaction would likely attract scrutiny from US regulators and potentially require divestitures. There is perhaps also a political dimension: AstraZeneca would effectively be a UK-based acquirer of one of America's large pharmaceutical companies at a time when US policymakers are focused on domestic manufacturing and strategic industries. While this could be a way for AZN to continue expanding its US footprint, it would likely need to be carefully navigated to reduce friction.

Accretion is easy enough to achieve, but that is rarely a good way to judge major strategic moves: It is worth noting that Bristol's earnings multiple, approximately 11 times 2027 earnings, is lower than AZN's multiple of about 15 times. Bristol faces several key losses of exclusivity for products such as Eliquis and Opdivo, resulting in revenue and profit forecasts showing little or no growth in the coming years.

Combining with AstraZeneca would provide Bristol with access to a faster-growing portfolio and pipeline, particularly in oncology and rare diseases, while AZN could benefit from the interim cash generation of Bristol's legacy assets. However, we do not quite understand how this would clearly benefit AZ shareholders, who would see their growth diluted. The biggest issue, in our view, is that the BMY portfolio would add approximately $30 billion in losses of exclusivity before AZN's patent expirations occur after 2030.

Based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, near-term earnings accretion could be in the double digits, subject to synergies and transaction structure. However, that accretion would diminish as BMY's earnings decline through 2031.

HSBC analyst Rajesh Kuma also provided clients with color:

The news: An FT article (2 August 2026) states that Astrazeneca is in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb "to combine…according to people familiar with the matter". The article further adds "The talks could yield a deal in the near future but may be delayed or fall apart, the people said". Neither company has commented on the report.

HSBC view – key issues: We are unclear on the basis of this news article. The reported "strategic rationale" for a deal is that it would improve AstraZeneca's US footprint in a material manner. Further, there could be synergies in combining the oncology and cardiovascular portfolios. The first challenge is likely to be around the antitrust issues, in oncology and, to a lesser extent, in cardiology. Both BMS and AstraZeneca are leading companies in the immuno-oncology space with competing assets and pipelines in the space. The combined scale, rebate wall and pipeline (which seems to be aligned with different next-generation mechanisms of action) could in theory be very compelling. Although the argument that Opdivo's patent cliff is imminent, and that AstraZeneca does not have a Vegf-bispecific in pipeline could be offered, the scrutiny would likely be intense.

Second, BMS faces meaningful LOE headwinds, while AstraZeneca has an attractive pipeline, which the market views as best-in-class in the space. Further, the company has a well established US presence with its manufacturing, sales force and commercial footprint. The arguments around AstraZeneca expanding its US presence via a deal seem to be an unlikely basis for a combination.

Third, AstraZeneca has been focused largely on bolt-on deals, which investors value as they typically come with manageable risk profiles. Large-platform acquisitions in the sector have rarely worked, tend to increase financial gearing and can be dilutive for equity holders. Investors are unlikely to be excited about any such deal.

In conclusion, we think that the basis for such deal a seems to be flimsy, both strategically and commercially. We rate AstraZeneca and BMS Hold, with unchanged TPs of 13,750p and USD60, respectively.

Bank of America analyst Jason Gerberry also provided initial thoughts on the merger report:

FT merger report light on details; initial thoughts

We provide our initial thoughts on tonight's Financial Times (FT) report that AstraZeneca (AZN; covered by Sachin Jain) has reportedly held talks exploring a potential combination with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), if correct, this could create a pharma duo with $400 billion combined market cap. The report is light on deal specifics but indicates talks have been ongoing for months and that an agreement could materialize soon, but delay or deal collapse remain explicitly cited scenarios.

The timing is notable given BMY's approaching several large patent losses of exclusivities and multiple important Phase 3 readouts expected over the next six to nine months; with BMY the smaller party, these pending pipeline events could influence valuation and raise questions around any risk-sharing mechanism.

The FT report does not provide a definitive deal structure or premium, but report notes any transaction would likely involve both cash and shares. Strategically, the most direct commercial overlap appears to be in marketed PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors, but Opdivo's late-2028 LOE limits the duration of that issue.

From a deal synergy (or FTC/regulatory approval) perspective, both companies have meaningful pipeline and/or marketed drugs across solid tumors, including ADCs, hematology, cardiovascular/renal disease, but we do not see major overlap in specific drug categories within those areas. Pharma merger deals involving bids above $100 billion are rare, with only a few attempted in the prior decade that failed to be consummated - highlighting various risks involved in deals of this size/cross-border.

The merger report reads highly uncertain and neither party has commented on the potential transaction. Thus we await more details. Our Buy on BMY remains around pipeline risk/reward.

Shares of AstraZeneca in London trading are down around 5%, while Bristol Myers Squibb in US premarket trading is up around 6%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 07:45

GameStop Shares Plunge As $1.4 Billion Debt-For-Equity Swap Threatens Dilution

GameStop shares fell in premarket trading after the company announced it had agreed to exchange about $1.4 billion of zero-coupon convertible notes for Class A shares, allowing the video game retailer to reduce long-term debt without using cash.

The press release stated that the transactions were privately negotiated and cover $400 million of notes due in 2030 and $1 billion due in 2032. After the cancellation, CEO Ryan Cohen's GameStop will have about $2.8 billion of convertible debt remaining, including $1.1 billion due in 2030 and $1.7 billion due in 2032.

The number of shares issued will be based on GameStop's average volume-weighted share price during a 35-session period beginning today, subject to a price floor. The exchange is expected to close around September 23.

GameStop warned:

The Company expects that some or all of the Existing Noteholders that participate in the Exchange may purchase or sell shares of Common Stock in open market transactions or enter into or unwind various derivative transactions with respect to Common Stock to hedge or unwind their investments in the Notes.

These activities could increase or decrease the market price of the Common Stock or the Notes, the effect of which may be material.

Shares fell 7.5% in premarket trading because the convertible note-for-equity swap will flood new shares into the market, with retail traders bearing the brunt of the dilution. As of Friday's close, the stock was up 8% year to date, with about 13.6% of the float sold short.

Meanwhile, CEO Ryan Cohen is still pursuing a takeover of eBay. The latest regulatory filing shows that GameStop owns 43.4 million shares of the e-commerce platform, representing a stake of about 9.8%. Cohen has told eBay's board chairman that he wants to acquire the company for $56 billion.

However ... 

Instead of eBay, GameStop ended up buying its own debt.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2026

. . .

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 07:30

Pentagon Plans AI Data Centers At Military Bases Across Multiple Branches

By Adam Gramegna of Military.com

At Dugway Proving Ground in Utah, on ground the Army's own contracting documents describe as previously used for grazing, a company owned by two of the largest investment firms in the world is preparing to build a data center.

That site sits about an hour's drive from the nearest community, on the installation where the U.S. military conducts its primary chemical and biological weapons testing. Three parcels there total roughly 3,466 acres. One of them, about 1,201 acres, is already spoken for.

A worker prepares a plot of land for an AI data center a retired power plant being refurbished to provide electricity for the facility rises in the distance Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in Independence, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

It is one of at least a dozen military installations the Army and the Department of the Air Force have opened to commercial data center developers over the past year and a half. Two of those deals are real; the rest are still proposals.

Land-for-Computing

In late March, the Army conditionally selected two companies to enter exclusive negotiations to build and operate commercial hyperscale data centers on Army land.

Carlyle, the global investment firm, was picked for roughly 1,384 acres at Fort Bliss, Texas. CyrusOne, a data center operator jointly held by funds managed by KKR and BlackRock, was picked for the parcel at Dugway. Each project is estimated to cost about $2 billion, according to the Financial Times.

The companies will be responsible for financing, building, operating, maintaining and eventually decommissioning the facilities, the Army said, on what it called "underutilized but non-excess Army land at no upfront cost to taxpayers." In exchange for the land, the service gets access to computing power.

It all runs through the Army's Enhanced Use Lease program, driven by a Trump executive order directing agencies to open non-excess federal land to data center development. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is handling lease negotiations and environmental review.

"AI is a strategic asset for the Army," Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said in the March announcement. "It is a force multiplier, supports future transformation and requirements, keeps the Army ahead of our adversaries, and generates resiliency across the force." Driscoll told the Wall Street Journal that the Fort Bliss facility would be "the first hyper-scale data center that the Pentagon has ever done."

United States Army Corps of Engineers headquarters in Norfolk, Virginia in 2016 (Wikimedia). Which Bases and How Close to Housing?

Only Fort Bliss and Dugway have been awarded so far, and even those remain conditional, pending negotiation. Beyond them, federal contracting documents show the Army considering data centers at Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Bragg, N.C.

The Department of the Air Force put out its own call in 2025 for private AI data center projects on unused land at Arnold Air Force Base, Tenn., Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, N.J., Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., and Robins Air Force Base, Ga.

More recently, it sought bidders for facilities at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Eielson Air Force Base and Clear Space Force Station in Alaska. Acreage varies enormously; for example, Fort Hood has 207 acres on offer. Fort Bliss has nearly seven times that.

Dugway is remote by design, although not every site is. Contracting documents show the Army weighing a parcel at Fort Hood within a half-mile of residential and commercial property, and several potential locations at Fort Bragg within one mile of civilian areas and a half-mile of civilian housing.

Proximity to the population is what has made data centers a heated topic in the civilian world. Nearly $156 billion in projects nationwide have been delayed or canceled after local opposition, according to Data Center Watch.

In Virginia, which holds the world's highest concentration of the facilities, a state-funded study found residents' monthly energy bills could rise by $14 to $37 by 2040.

Army Officials Say They're Ready

"So I think the difference between us, the Army, doing a data center, and say Meta or Google, is we're part of the communities that are there, and we are going to engage with them on a routine and regular basis to look for solutions that work for everyone, right?" Col. John Oliver, executive officer for Deputy Army Under Secretary Dave Fitzgerald, told Defense One. "Because, yes, we understand that there's been consternation with data centers."

Two requirements attached to these projects do not apply to commercial builds off base. Proposals must include net-zero water usage and a power plan that does not draw on the local electrical grid. Bidders were also required to describe plans for "local outreach and engagement" and to assess "any risks or opposition" to the project.

The Defense Department's own procurement documents, obtained by the trade publication Data Center Dynamics, rate the water risk for the El Paso area as "Extremely High." Data centers consume water to cool their servers. Fort Bliss is where the Army wants its flagship.

Army officials want the project to be a net contributor rather than a net drain. In the spring, Fitzgerald traveled to Fort Bliss for a listening session with the commander of the 1st Armored Division, community members, El Paso Water, El Paso Electric and Carlyle. One idea on the table is having the developer drill a new well to feed the city's desalination plant, offsetting what the data center uses.

"We are encouraging Carlyle to do that, so actually make it net-positive," Oliver told Defense One. "We don't know if that's an engineering solution that we can actually get to yet, but we're actively working toward that as a part of the process."

Darrell M. West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies data center development, said the approach is sound, and that communities which have accepted the facilities tend to be the ones told the full details in advance.

"People want to know up-front, you know, where the energy is coming from, how much water is being used, how much the overall cost is going to be, and what the noise levels are," West said.

Congress Not Settled

Rep. Cory Mills, a Florida Republican, secured a provision in the House version of the fiscal 2027 defense authorization bill. This bill bars the Defense Department from leasing land for data centers unless developers agree not to install equipment containing components made in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. The restriction covers certain printed circuit boards, advanced semiconductors and chipsets the department considers a security risk.

"Honored to pass this amendment to protect our military installations from Chinese components being used in data centers on our installations," Mills wrote on X.

The Army objected. The measure would create a "federal land penalty," a service official told Federal News Network, imposing rules on companies building on installations that would not apply to identical projects built anywhere else. "We want Congress to incentivize companies to build on secure federal land, rather than creating barriers that drive them away," the official said.

Rep. John Garamendi, a California Democrat, proposed requiring the Pentagon to evaluate a data center's energy and water consumption, noise and light pollution, and effects on security and supply chains before finalizing any deal. House Armed Services Republicans rejected it.

"We're not opposed to data centers," Garamendi said. "We just want to make sure that if we're going to put a data center on a federal facility, that federal facility is not going to be degraded by the data center."

His questions were installation questions. "Is there encroachment on training and operations and the physical and supply chain of security?" he asked.

Senate Armed Services Republicans defeated a separate Democratic amendment that would have blocked leasing until the Pentagon finalizes a data center strategy. House appropriators, meanwhile, adopted language acknowledging that data centers "place significant strain on energy and water resources and communities have resisted such projects."

Available Information

For anyone stationed at or living near one of these installations, several things are known for sure. Only two projects have been awarded, and both remain conditional. Fort Hood, Fort Bragg and the Air Force sites are solicitations, not commitments.

Initial operating capability at Fort Bliss is projected for fiscal 2027 and at Dugway for fiscal 2029. That is when the first capability comes online, not when a finished campus exists. Oliver has described the long-term vision as a campus with a commercial side, a classified military data side, and onsite power generation.

The Army Corps of Engineers is conducting the environmental review at both awarded sites. Developers must build independent power that does not tap the local grid and meet net-zero water usage. Excess power generated on base could potentially be sold back to civilian grids.

The Association of Defense Communities has scheduled further discussion of military data center development at its Installation Innovation Forum in October 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 07:20

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Too darn f*****g hot: Hybrid Economics on the economics of extreme heat — the productivity losses, infrastructure strain, and adaptation costs that are becoming a permanent line item in the global economy. Unusually hot weather is bad for you, your temper, your economy and your business. Climate change means you’re going to get lots more of it. (Half Macro Half Climate)

• Warsh: “We’re Sticking With It” … Until January: Stay-At-Home Macro decodes the Fed chair’s latest — the commitment language has an expiration date, and the January pivot is already being priced. (Stay-At-Home Macro) see also Bond markets flinch at Fed’s non-guidance: Semafor on the market reaction — the refusal to guide is itself a signal, and the bond market doesn’t like what it’s hearing. (Semafor) see also Trying to make sense of Warsh: Abdicating responsibility or fortifying the markets with anti-fragility serum? (Financial Times free)

• When and How Asset Location Matters: New Vanguard research finds that strategically placing assets across account types can add up to about 0.3% annually in after-tax returns — meaningful, though still secondary to allocation itself. (Vanguard)

• Almost nobody wants this SEC change: Individual investors overwhelmingly oppose the Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposal to ease the requirement that companies release quarterly financial reports.. (Axios)

• Here Comes the Next Wave of GLP-1s. They’ll Treat a Lot More Than Obesity. This blockbuster class of drugs is shattering all sales records. Which stock will do better—Eli Lilly or Novo Nordisk? (Barron’s)

• Could the Most Radical Plane Design Since the Concorde Take On Boeing? JetZero’s blended-wing aircraft just got a major boost from Washington: a $3 billion preliminary deal to help start production. The blended-wing body is finally getting a serious commercial shot. The Wall Street Journal on the startup betting it can break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly with physics. Since the Concorde Take On Boeing? (Wall Street Journal)

• Character Study: The burgeoning field of fiction character biographies. The Los Angeles Review of Books on the strange genre of fictional character biographies — the books that treat Shakespeare’s creations, Hannibal Lecter, and Juliet as subjects with lives beyond their texts. Lee Konstantinou on the burgeoning field of fiction character biographies — full-dress lives written for Juliet, Hannibal Lecter, and Bigger Thomas. (Los Angeles Review of Books).

• A Small Band of Socialists Is Sowing Panic in the Democratic Party: Once a fringe wing, the movement is wielding surprising political power, capitalizing on popular discontent. Mainstream Democrats see a ‘fundamental threat.’ The Wall Street Journal on the DSA wing’s midterm leverage — Mamdani’s coalition is small, but it’s terrifying the party establishment out of proportion to its size. (Wall Street Journal)

• Donald Trump Holds The White House Press Corps Hostage: As an AI Thomas Jefferson delivered a lecture on the freedom of the press, Trump warned journalists “When I’m gone, you’re all gonna be broke.” Vanity Fair on the Correspondents’ Dinner aftermath — the press corps’ impossible position between access journalism and complicity. (Vanity Fair)

• Breakfast is Included: On the hotel breakfast buffet: This is why the breakfast room is the most honest place in any hotel.  (Scott Monaco)

Video of the day: The Key CEO Traits Investors Are Missing | Kara Swisher

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Som Seif, founder/CEO of Purpose Unlimited, a Toronto-based asset manager launched in 2012. He grew his first firm, Claymore Investments to $8B in assets by creating 34  ETFs in Canada over 6 years, including the creation of the first bitcoin ETF, establishing it as Canada’s leader in low-cost exchange-traded funds. Claymore was sold to BlackRock in 2012. He co-founded Wealthsimple that year, which became the default investing app for a generation of Canadians. His current wealth management firm, Purpose, was founded at the end of 2012, and manages $31 billion in ETFs, mutual funds, alternatives, private assets, and digital assets. Som was named to Canada’s Top 40 Under 40 in 2011.

 

The Dollar’s Hidden Dependence on the AI Trade

Source: Apollo

 

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Exelon "High Probability" Data Center Load Falls 40%

By Ethan Howland, senior reporter at UtilityDive

Exelon’s “high probability” data center load fell nearly 40%, to about 11 GW, in the second quarter from 18 GW at the end of last year, the Chicago-based utility company said Thursday.

The decline comes as Exelon utilities have been entering into “transmission security agreements” with potential data center customers, it said. The TSAs include provisions designed to protect existing ratepayers from data center-related costs such as credit obligations, committed revenue contributions and shortfall payments.

“What this update reflects is [that] we now weed out speculative projects, and it gives us proactive insight into what is real,” Jeanne Jones, Exelon CFO, said during an earnings conference call with equity analysts.

Meta’s data center in DeKalb, Ill. Exelon’s “high probability” data center load, mainly in Illinois, fell nearly 40%, to 11 GW, the Chicago-based utility company said July 30, 2026. Courtesy of Meta

As part of the weedout of data center projects, Exelon’s Commonwealth Edison subsidiary on July 24 told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission it had canceled a previously approved TSA with PowerHouse Hillwood Holding. Key information about the project related to the TSA was redacted in ComEd’s original application at FERC. However, Hillwood and PowerHouse Data Centers have been planning a 1.8-GW, $20 billion data center in Joliet, Illinois.

The current high-probability projects — about 9 GW in ComEd’s territory in northern Illinois and 2 GW in Mid-Atlantic states — include about 4 GW of data center load with signed TSAs that have posted $1 billion in collateral, according to Jones.

Exelon’s data center interconnection pipeline — potential projects that utilities are studying or are about to study — fell to about 25 GW in the second quarter from about 43 GW disclosed during a May earnings conference call.

By the numbers: Exelon Q2

• 17.6 GWh: PECO Energy electric sales for the first half of 2026, down 0.7% — and down 2.1% on a weather-adjusted basis — from a year ago.
• 500 MW: The size of a battery storage project Exelon’s Atlantic City Electric plans to build and own in New Jersey.
• $12B to $17B: The amount of potential transmission projects not included in Exelon’s nearly $42 billion, four-year capital expenditure plan.
• $396M: Second-quarter income, up about 1% from the year-ago period.

Exelon is continuing to push for utility-owned generation as part of an “all-of-the-above” approach to address capacity needs in the PJM Interconnection market, which includes 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern states and the District of Columbia.

PJM’s capacity auction held this summer cleared at a price cap for the third time in a row, missed a reliability target by 6.8 GW and attracted only 525 MW in new generation.

“Even at the highest allowed price, the market is not attracting the level of new supply the system needs,” Calvin Butler, Exelon president and CEO, said during the earnings call.

If PJM’s current $325/MW-day capacity auction price cap is lifted as planned after its next auction, set to be held in December, the average residential customer of Exelon’s Atlantic City Electric subsidiary in New Jersey could see monthly bill increases ranging from $14.70 to $23.64, the utility told the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities last week.

In an effort to address some of those challenges in PJM, ACE, working with Invenergy, on July 23 proposed building and owning a 500-MW, four-hour battery storage system in Pittsgrove, New Jersey.

ACE plans to offer the battery into PJM’s markets starting in late 2030, when the project is expected to be online, according to the utility’s application at the BPU. It could help ACE meet growing peak demand and wouldn’t affect customer bills until 2035 at the soonest, according to the utility.

ACE contends that owning the storage project wouldn’t violate New Jersey’s restructuring laws for utilities, which bar them from owning generation.

The project is expected to cost about $1 billion, according to Jones. ACE is seeking a 9.6% ROE for the project, with the potential for a higher return if the project meets performance benchmarks, according to its application. The utility said its customers will receive $1.36 in benefits for every $1 spent on the project. If the BPU follows ACE’s proposed schedule, a decision could be reached in February.

Baltimore Gas and Electric and Potomac Electric Power Co., both Exelon subsidiaries, are pursuing battery storage projects in Maryland, Jones noted. The projects under review by the Maryland Public Service Commission total 150 MW, according to Exelon.

Exelon utilities are also advancing energy efficiency projects and virtual power plants, according to Butler. BGE and Pepco have nearly 175 MW of approved VPP capacity in Maryland and Commonwealth Edison has a program expected to take effect in March.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 06:30

Armor, Ammunition And Battlefield Adaptation

Goldman Sachs analyst Sam Burgess, who covers European defense companies including Airbus, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Renk, Rolls-Royce, Safran, Leonardo, Thales, and Dassault Aviation, held a call with retired German Lieutenant General Andreas Marlow to provide clients with greater color on the rapidly evolving modern battlefield and its implications for defense-sector investment decisions.

Marlow said the war in Ukraine has exposed a slew of weaknesses in conventional armies rather than rendering them obsolete. He said future combat will depend on integrated forces combining armor, infantry, artillery, all categories of drones, air defense, electronic warfare, and long-range strike capabilities.

Marlow described how drones and low-cost warfare have created a heavily contested zone stretching 40 to 50 kilometers across the modern battlefield, increasing demand for unmanned systems and counter-drone protection.

We have previously described these kill zones as part of the "world's AI weapons laboratory," where suicide drones and experimental unmanned systems, some equipped with fully automated kill chains, are the leading causes of death on the front lines.

Here is Burgess breaking down the conversation for clients:

Land Forces

Have drones reduced the importance of conventional land forces?

• No. General Marlow was unequivocal that conventional land forces remain essential. He said he did not know anyone in uniform who seriously believed that armed forces should dispense with tanks, artillery, infantry or other armoured capabilities.
• The widespread adoption of drones and other unmanned systems is changing warfare, in his view, but it has not eliminated the requirement for conventional military capabilities. Instead, it has exposed areas in which existing forces were insufficiently protected or integrated. The implication is that conventional platforms need to evolve, rather than simply be abandoned.
• He also cautioned against assuming that the current effectiveness of drones will remain unchanged. Their impact has partly reflected the absence of sufficiently mature countermeasures. As counter-UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) systems, electronic warfare and other defensive technologies improve, the balance between drones and traditional platforms is also likely to evolve.

What is combined-arms warfare and why is it necessary?

• No single system can deliver battlefield success independently in our expert's view. Infantry, armour, artillery, drones, electronic warfare, air defence and long-range strike must operate as part of an integrated force.
• In this context, he believes the experience of Ukraine does not demonstrate that conventional platforms are fundamentally obsolete. Rather, it shows that conventional forces can be vulnerable when operating without adequate air defence, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection or situational awareness.
• General Marlow therefore sees emerging technologies as enhancing conventional forces rather than replacing them. UAVs, unmanned ground vehicles, AI, electronic warfare and digitalisation can improve reconnaissance, targeting, protection and the speed of decision-making, but they still need to be integrated into a broader force structure.

How is the battlefield changing?

• Battlefield transparency has increased significantly. Persistent UAV surveillance makes it more difficult for formations to move without being detected, while electronic warfare has become critical to the operation and defence of drones and unmanned ground systems.
• General Marlow described a highly exposed or contested zone that may extend approximately 40 to 50 kilometres. Moving personnel and equipment through this area can be extremely hazardous.
• Unmanned systems are consequently becoming increasingly important in these exposed areas. UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and UGVs (unmanned ground vehicles) can conduct reconnaissance, transport, targeting and other tasks while reducing the direct risk to soldiers. This does not remove the need for manned forces, but it may change where and how personnel are employed.
• Electronic warfare is also becoming important at multiple levels of command. This includes protecting friendly systems, disrupting enemy sensors and communications, and maintaining the ability to operate drones in a heavily contested electromagnetic environment.

What role will AI play?

• General Marlow characterised AI, when integrated into conventional military structures, as the potentially more profound long-term battlefield revolution.
• The importance of AI is not necessarily as a standalone capability. Rather, he believes it lies in its potential to connect sensors, improve targeting, accelerate decision-making and support the deployment of both conventional and unmanned systems. This reinforces the broader theme that emerging technologies are most valuable when incorporated into an integrated force, rather than considered as substitutes for existing capabilities.

German Army force structure

• General Marlow expects the German Army to retain both light and heavy forces while developing a distinct medium-force category.
• Light forces include airborne and other rapidly deployable formations. Their principal advantage is speed and deployability, although they have less protection and firepower than heavier units.
• Heavy forces will continue to centre on tracked, mechanised formations equipped with main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, supported by artillery, engineers and other enabling capabilities required for high-intensity combat. Leopard 2 and Puma form the core of this heavy-force structure.
• Medium forces are being developed as a distinct category between light and heavy formations. Built around protected wheeled vehicles, particularly the Boxer family, these brigades are intended to combine greater deployability than heavy tracked forces with more protection and firepower than light forces. Their wheeled mobility should enable rapid deployment over long distances with less reliance on rail, sea transport and specialised heavy-equipment transporters, allowing them to provide meaningful combat power while heavier formations are still deploying.
• Modernisation will therefore take place across all three categories. General Marlow believes existing force structures will largely be retained, but with additional unmanned systems, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection and digital capabilities integrated at progressively lower tactical levels. He noted, for example, that UAV support could increasingly be available to platoon-level formations.

Where do Leopard, Puma and Boxer fit?

• Leopard tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles are expected to remain at the core of Germany's heavy forces.
• Boxer is particularly important to the medium-force concept because it combines protection, road mobility and a highly modular design. It can support a range of configurations, including wheeled infantry fighting vehicle, command-and-control, medical, recovery and counter-UAV roles.
• General Marlow expects Boxer to become the standard platform for Germany's medium forces, while also being used for selected applications within the heavy-force structure. Its modularity should allow new technologies and mission systems to be incorporated without requiring a wholly new vehicle for every role.
• This suggests that the evolution of Germany's land forces will not be based on a simple choice between traditional armour and new technology. Instead, he believes platforms such as Leopard, Puma and Boxer are likely to provide the protected structure into which unmanned systems, missiles, active protection and digital capabilities are integrated.

What capability gaps remain?

• Germany has an immediate need to improve the equipment, readiness and depth of its land forces following an extended period of underinvestment, according to our expert.
• General Marlow highlighted ammunition stocks, reserves, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection and unmanned systems as important requirements. Germany also needs sufficient operational depth to sustain a prolonged conflict, rather than structuring the force only for short-duration deployments.
• Personnel and infrastructure are part of the same challenge. In his assessment, the supporting infrastructure is not yet sufficient for the force Germany aspires to build, implying that expansion will require investment beyond frontline equipment alone.

Why must Europe strengthen its land capabilities?

• General Marlow believes that even if the United States remains willing to reinforce Europe, personnel and heavy equipment cannot all cross the Atlantic immediately. Some US capabilities can deploy rapidly, but heavy formations and equipment require more time.
• European NATO members therefore need sufficient combat capability to operate before US reinforcements arrive. In General Marlow's view, larger European countries will continue to require substantial conventional military forces, with Germany, Poland and France potentially playing particularly important roles in Europe's immediate land defence.

Artillery and ammunition

Will drones replace 155 mm artillery?

• General Marlow sees drones and artillery as complementary rather than interchangeable.
• Drones can identify and engage individual targets with precision, but tube artillery remains important for sustained fire, volume and operations across a wider range of battlefield conditions. Adverse weather can reduce the effectiveness of drones, whereas artillery may remain operational in those environments.
• Germany is therefore continuing to rebuild its artillery capabilities and establish additional artillery formations. Future forces are likely to require a combination of tube artillery, UAVs, missiles and other long-range strike systems.
• The changing battlefield may alter the balance between these systems and the way in which they are used. However, it does not remove the need for conventional artillery or sustained volumes of fire.

Will demand for 155 mm ammunition remain high?

• Yes. In General Marlow's view, NATO countries need to rebuild and maintain credible ammunition stockpiles following the depletion and underinvestment of previous years. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of shell availability during a prolonged, high-intensity conflict.
• Although wartime consumption patterns may evolve as drones and other technologies become more prevalent, General Marlow expects demand for 155 mm ammunition to remain significant beyond the current conflict.
• This is not simply a question of reaching a particular inventory level. NATO countries also require the ability to replenish stocks and increase output if another conflict occurs.

Should underutilised production capacity be maintained?

• Yes. General Marlow argued that ammunition capacity should not be assessed solely by reference to peacetime utilisation rates.
• Once inventories have been replenished, some production facilities may appear underutilised. However, maintaining industrial resilience and the ability to scale output rapidly is strategically important. Several companies have already expanded production, but the ability to increase output further needs to be preserved.

Modernising existing platforms

How should existing land platforms evolve?

• Existing platforms should be modernised rather than automatically replaced. The principal requirements include counter-UAV systems, active protection, organic drones, electronic warfare and better situational awareness.
• Protection against drones may also need to extend below the platform level. Individual soldiers and small units could require their own detection, electronic warfare or defensive capabilities as UAVs become more pervasive.
• General Marlow did not identify a generational divide within the German Ministry of Defence or procurement community over traditional vs emerging technologies.
• In his view, UAVs, UGVs, AI and electronic warfare will be incorporated into existing force structures because they improve the effectiveness and survivability of conventional platforms.

Procurement and spending

What has constrained the speed of German defence procurement?

• The current procurement system developed during approximately three decades of military downsizing after 1990. It is now being asked to deliver much larger quantities of equipment within significantly shorter timeframes.
• After many years in which budgets and procurement volumes were declining, the challenge has changed. Funding is becoming more available, but time, personnel and implementation capacity have been constrained.
• German and EU regulatory requirements can also slow the process. The key challenge is to shorten the period between identifying a military requirement, placing an order and delivering usable equipment.
• General Marlow stressed that the system is evolving rather than remaining static. The Ministry of Defence is working to improve procurement, and he expects the process to continue improving.
• He also cautioned against applying every lesson from Ukraine directly to Germany without adaptation. The conflict provides extensive operational evidence, including insights gained through training Ukrainian forces and analysing battlefield developments, but capabilities still need to reflect Germany's own military requirements and force structure.

Should too much be read into a single year's defence budget?

• No. Annual budget movements may not accurately represent the longer-term direction of defence spending in General Marlow's view.
• In some areas, particularly ammunition, industry may simply be unable to absorb the full amount of potential expenditure in a single year. Spending can therefore be constrained by industrial capacity, procurement timelines and the ability to deploy funding, rather than by an absence of political demand.
• Governments may also be reluctant to commit excessive resources in one budget year or to allocate too much funding from a multi year allocation in one year. Preserving some flexibility allows future administrations to respond to changing military requirements and technological developments.

Professional subscribers can read a lot more on military trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 05:45

US Raises Travel Advisory For Spanish Area Amid Illegal Immigrant Influx

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of State on Saturday increased a travel advisory for Ceuta, Spain, to a higher level due to unrest caused by a recent mass influx of illegal immigrants.

The agency said it updated its travel advisory for Americans to Ceuta to Level 3, or “reconsider travel,” due to “massive and uncontrolled arrival of migrants from Morocco to Ceuta” that could lead to an “unpredictable and dangerous security situation.”

“Spain has deployed the Spanish military, Spanish National Police, and Guardia Civil as a result of this serious situation,” it said. “Americans should reconsider travel to the area given the risks posed to their safety and security.”

Spanish authorities on Saturday installed a 1,600-foot barrier along the sea border between Ceuta, located in North Africa, and Morocco following the surge.

At least 67 of the border crossers died, including some who drowned and others who were killed in a stampede to cross a breakwater barrier, the Spanish government said Saturday.

The sudden arrival of 50,000 to 60,000 people in the territory on July 30 and July 31 sparked a humanitarian crisis and reignited the immigration debate in Europe and beyond, although at least 80 percent of the illegal immigrants had returned to Morocco by Saturday, according to government estimates.

Other European Union countries called for urgent talks and a coordinated response to the situation in Ceuta.

“We cannot allow uncontrolled mass crossings, the instrumentalization of migration or other hybrid threats to create the perception that illegal entry into the European Union is possible. That a migrant’s illegal entry can turn into legal stay,” a letter to top EU officials, released on Saturday by the Italian government’s office, said in a statement.

“Such a perception would encourage further attempts, undermine confidence in our common migration policy and have repercussions for all Member States,” it added.

Moroccan illegal immigrants walk along Avenida Martínez Catena in Ceuta toward the border area on July 31, 2026, at 9:34 p.m. local time. Etienne Fauchaire/The Epoch Times

Leaders of Italy, Denmark, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Sweden signed the letter asking the EU’s current Irish presidency to convene a video conference of interior ministers.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez criticized the reaction to the events in Ceuta, saying calls for Spain to be suspended from the EU’s borderless Schengen zone were “driven by prejudice, fake news, ignorance, or political interest.”

According to the State Department, Spain—other than Cueta—is currently under a “Level 2” travel advisory, meaning to “exercise increased caution.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 05:00

Trump's Venezuela Oil Push Hits A Roadblock

Venezuela's long-awaited oil revival has been slower than many in Washington anticipated., according to the Wall Street Journal.

Seven months after Nicolás Maduro's removal, negotiations between the interim government and major U.S. energy companies remain bogged down, with no landmark investment deals despite the country's vast crude reserves.

Rather than rushing back into the country, firms such as ExxonMobil and Chevron are taking a cautious approach. Executives remain wary of Venezuela's history of nationalizing foreign assets, unresolved compensation disputes dating back to the Chávez era, and lingering political uncertainty. As Francisco Monaldi of Rice University's Baker Institute put it, "They have been burned twice," making boards reluctant to approve multibillion-dollar projects unless the opportunity is exceptionally attractive.

Photo: WSJ

WSJ writes that competition has also complicated negotiations. Several companies are pursuing the same high-quality assets in the Orinoco Belt and Monagas state while pressing for more favorable tax, regulatory, and ownership terms. According to José Ignacio Hernández of Aurora Macro Strategies, enthusiasm has yet to translate into commitments: "You have a very successful open house with 100 people attending, but then nobody calls."

Chevron has continued expanding production through operational improvements, lifting output to nearly 300,000 barrels per day, but it has stopped short of committing fresh billions to new developments. Exxon has reportedly scaled back some of its interest after failing to secure enough of the assets it wanted and facing enormous costs to rehabilitate previously nationalized infrastructure.

Venezuela's oil production has climbed to roughly 1.07 million barrels per day, up from about 937,000 last year, but it remains a fraction of the country's late-1990s peak. With the majors proceeding cautiously, the Trump administration has increasingly looked to smaller independent producers that can move faster and provide immediate capital. Several privately held firms have already signed preliminary agreements, though analysts caution that fully developing Venezuela's heavy-oil resources will ultimately require the deep pockets, long investment horizons, and technical expertise that only the largest international oil companies can provide.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 04:15

Trump Says "Perimeters Of A Deal Reached" With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince

The past few days have been tense. Although no US strikes were launched from Friday night into Saturday morning and the Gulf region remained quiet early Sunday, anticipation surrounding President Trump's next move is keeping energy traders and Gulf governments on edge. The big concern is that another round of strikes could trigger a wider regional conflict, particularly as the Iranian-backed Houthis have reactivated offensive operations in the southern Red Sea in recent weeks.

The Trump administration and Department of War may pursue de-escalation from here after Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday night: "We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to."

"Tonight from 9:36 PM to 9:37 PM the S&P 500 price on Hyperliquid spiked bigly, and I couldn't figure out why... ...then Trump posted his TACO @ 10:05 PM. THEN I understood why," X user Stanphyl Capital wrote.

That de-esclation pathway was followed by a new signal early Sudnay from Saudi Press Agency, Saudi Arabia's official state news agency, stating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with President Trump, discussing the "necessity of prioritizing dialogue to de-escalate tensions and the importance of exerting all possible efforts to achieve a truce that paves the way for diplomatic solutions that yield positive results for preserving the security and stability of the region and prevent it from being drawn into a wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability."

The MbS-Trump call was first reported by Axios, which got the scoop on Saturday evening:

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran, according to two U.S. officials and a third source with knowledge of the call.

. . .

Such an attack could lead to an unprecedented escalation in the five-month war, which has repeatedly paused as Trump opened the door to negotiations — only to resume when those diplomatic efforts failed.

Iran has threatened to retaliate by launching attacks against energy and infrastructure facilities in Israel and the Gulf countries

• The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action," one U.S. official told Axios.
• A second source with knowledge of the call said MBS urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes.

Why the MBS-Trump conversation matters is that Saudi Arabia remains one of Washington's top Gulf region allies. Riyadh has heavily influenced Trump's Iran policy at previous inflection points and appears to have exerted similar influence in delaying or narrowing the next phase of US military action.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 04:15

Operation Blackout Takes Down 4 Of The 'Largest Scam Compounds On Earth': FBI

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The FBI announced on July 31 that it dismantled four of the “largest scam compounds on Earth” under Operation Blackout, seizing $15.2 billion in assets and freeing thousands of forced laborers.

Scam compounds provide the infrastructure to carry out large-scale online fraud operations and typically employ hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom are captives.

Operation Blackout freed thousands of trafficked workers, the FBI said in a post on X. In addition, roughly 10,000 Americans were reportedly saved from losing their life savings.

The agency did not specify a timeline for the event.

The FBI also built new international partnerships to fight off fraud and trafficking activities, the agency said.

Workers gather with their luggage after leaving a suspected scam center compound in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images

In a July 21 post on X, FBI director Kash Patel said that the seizure of $15.2 billion under Operation Blackout was made over a 16-month period. Dozens of scam centers were dismantled and hundreds of criminals arrested, with multiple human trafficking compounds eliminated. Patel listed four operations carried out as part of dismantling scam operations.

Operation Zephyr Exodus involved the takedown of Cambodia’s Prince Group, a transnational criminal organization.

This led to the seizure of a record 127,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $15 billion at the time.

Operation Sand Dollar, conducted in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, dismantled nine scam compounds, arrested more than 300 individuals, seized around $300 million, confiscated thousands of electronic devices, and freed thousands of trafficked workers. It was conducted through a joint operation with China’s Ministry of Public Security and the Dubai Police, Patel said.

In Operation Compound Fracture, authorities seized domains and malicious apps linked to scam activities.

And under the Shunda Compound Takedown, the FBI and Thai law enforcement carried out a joint operation that disrupted a network responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses to victims.

Last month, the Treasury Department sanctioned 35 individuals and entities linked to the Prince Group, including a Cambodia-based conglomerate that allegedly provided laundering services for scam proceeds.

U.S. authorities estimate Americans to have lost at least $10 billion to scam operations running from Southeast Asia in 2024, a 66 percent jump from the previous year, the department said.

According to the FBI’s Internet Crime Report 2025, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received more than a million complaints last year. Total losses from these complaints amounted to over $20.87 billion, a 26 percent increase from the previous year.

Scam Compound Trafficking

In a July 28 statement, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) highlighted the issue of trafficking victims being forced to work in scam centers.

Victims are initially lured through fake job advertisements that promise legitimate work abroad. Once they arrive, they are stripped of documents, locked inside compounds, and forced to carry out online scam operations under threat of violence and other measures. Many survivors report being subjected to sexual abuse, solitary confinement, starvation, and torture, IOM said.

“People trapped in scam compounds are victims of trafficking, forced to commit crimes through violence, threats and coercion. They deserve protection, not punishment,” IOM Director General Amy Pope said in the statement.

“We must work together to support survivors, stop traffickers and close the gaps these criminal networks exploit. No country can tackle this alone,” Pope said.

During 2022–2025, the IOM assisted over 3,500 trafficked victims of forced criminality in Southeast Asia. These people were from 39 nations, mostly from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Kenya, and Ethiopia.

On Sept. 30 last year, a group of lawmakers introduced the Scam Compound Accountability and Mobilization (SCAM) Act that aims to counter foreign scam operations, according to an Oct. 1, 2025, statement from the office of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

The bill also seeks to hold transnational criminal organizations that engage in human trafficking, forced criminality, and cyber scams targeting Americans accountable for their actions.

The legislation was passed by the Senate in December and sent to the House of Representatives the same month. However, no significant action has been taken on the bill since then.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 03:30

Logistical Nightmare Unfolds As Rhine Plunges Toward Record Low

The Rhine, one of Europe's most vital arteries for transporting industrial goods, has fallen to one of its owest level since the drought-stricken summer of 2018. The resulting loss of shipping capacity is driving up freight costs and raising the risk of supply disruptions for iron ore, coal, chemicals, petroleum products and other commodities moving through Europe's industrial heartland.

The Rhine water level gauge at Kaub, a key chokepoint on the Rhine for shipments heading to southern Germany and Switzerland, has fallen to just 25 centimeters, the lowest reading since the drought-stricken summer of 2018.

Zwei eindrucksvolle Bilder bei Rüdesheim bzw. Bingen (Nahemündung) mit dem Rekordniedrigwasser am Rhein und auffällig großen Sandbänken. Danke an Christian. /LD pic.twitter.com/9GC4c3zv6y

— Kachelmannwetter (@Kachelmannwettr) August 2, 2026

At levels of 40 to 50 centimeters, vessels can carry only about 20% of their normal cargo, according to Germany's Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. The resulting loss of transport capacity is driving up freight costs and increasing the risk of supply disruptions of critical commodities.

Some Rhine Freight Rates Rose 400% in Two Months as Water Levels Fell

The benchmark freight rate per tonne for oil and liquid-bulk barges from Rotterdam to German cities south of the Kaub chokepoint rose about 400% in two months, reaching a record on the chart. Cargo demand did… pic.twitter.com/Yht6yiSWXQ

— LearnInvest (@LearnInvest2026) August 2, 2026

German federal data compiled by ETH Zurich shows that a drop below 24 centimeters, which is in the forecast for this week, would mark the lowest level since records began in 1880.

JPMorgan analyst Chetan Udeshi told clients that with Rhine water levels dropping to 2018 levels, this may spark a drag across Germany's chemicals industry:

BASF/K+S/Sector read: Rhine water levels dropped to multi-year lows in August and are now comparable to 2H18 levels, when Germany-exposed chemicals saw material operational/logistics headwinds (see our previous report here). It remains to be seen whether low water levels will persist for as long as they did in 2H18; if they do, this would represent an additional downside risk to 2H26 expectations, albeit likely smaller given post-2018 mitigation. As illustrated in Figure 1Rhine watrlve Kaubmsring potand Figure 2Probailty-weghd 14-ayforecst forRhine watrlve Kaubsof 31July, at the Kaub gauge, Rhine levels have fallen to multi-year lows and are now similar to Oct–Nov 2018, when disruptions to barge logistics and wider supply chains hit German/European chemicals; the two most impacted names then were BASF and K+S. Evonik and to a lesser extent Brenntag had also flagged earnings headwinds in 2H18.

BASF saw the most adverse impact of ~€250m in 3Q-4Q18 (~2.5% of 2018 adj EBITDA) due to its reliance on the Rhine for transportation infrastructure and plant cooling. Since then, BASF has implemented a number of mitigation measures, including diversifying its logistics network to be able to switch to alternative transport modes (e.g. rail), if needed, as well as expanding its fleet to include vessels that can still operate in the Rhine at low water levels. On the last week's 2Q26 conference call, BASF's CEO commented that thanks to the mitigation measures, this time the company does not expect to see a negative impact of the magnitude seen in 2H26.

K+S relied on the Rhine for saline water disposal, which became impossible due to reduced water levels; as a result, K+S had to halt production at parts of its largest site in Germany, Werra, for almost two months. This translated into a ~€95m adverse impact (~15% of 2018 EBITDA). Since 2018, K+S has invested in improving the resiliency and sustainability of its wastewater disposal at the Werra site, including as part of the ongoing Werra 2060 project capex, which should help to more than halve the amount of process water for the Werra site. In its 2025 annual report, K+S commented that through the system of wastewater storage basins at the company's disposal, as well as other measures, it had "significantly increased the flexibility of wastewater management at the Werra plant in recent years, to fully maintain production at the Werra plant even in a hydrologically dry year”. The company also noted, however, that in the case of an extreme drought comparable to that seen in the summer of 2022 and lasting over a long period of time, resulting in low levels in the Werra river, there could still be a risk of a temporary production interruption. Hence, subject to the duration of dry conditions, the impact on production at K+S cannot be ruled out, although we would expect it to be much reduced compared to the 2018 situation reflecting the improved wastewater management infrastructure.

Rhine Level At Kaub

Kaub Level Forecast

Barclays analyst Katie Richards recently told clients to have Rhine water levels "on their radars."

Here's more from Richards:

Our view: Investors should have the Rhine on their radar. Rhine-exposed chemical stocks historically underperformed during the 2018 and 2022 low-water episodes. What makes 2026 noteworthy is that the Rhine is entering the summer from an unusually weak position, with water levels already near multi-year lows for this point in the year and further risk from El Niño. However, unlike 2018, producers have invested heavily in mitigation measures, and these appeared to have proven effective during the 2022 drought when disruption was limited despite challenging conditions. As a result, we see the risk today as more skewed towards higher logistics costs and supply-chain inefficiencies than a repeat of the severe operational disruption experienced in 2018.Our concern would increase if Kaub water levels were to spend a prolonged period around 40cm or below, a level broadly consistent with or more severe than the 2022 drought, when financial impacts across the sector were largely negligible (versus ~100cm today).

The fallout of summer heat across the continent has spread beyond freight markets. Heat waves have forced France to curb output from its nuclear fleet because rising river temperatures could fuel wildfires.

In Hungary, the government has urged households and businesses to conserve electricity and water after demand overwhelmed supplies in Szentendre, leaving thousands without drinking water. Meanwhile, Italy's Po River has fallen below historic lows.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 02:45

Saudi Arabia Has Five Points Of Leverage Over The US

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

It probably won’t ever muster up the political will to use them, however, but the possibility always remains.

Trump recently surprised the Saudis by demanding that they recognize Israel as the precondition for the US implementing their newly signed nuclear energy deal, which wasn’t part of the agreement. This follows him humiliating Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman earlier in the spring by claiming that he’d been “kissing my ass” for rejuvenating the US economy. His mistreatment of the Kingdom and its de facto leader is unexpected since the US relies on them in the following five ways:

1. Indirectly Projecting US Influence Across The Ummah

Saudi Arabia wields tremendous influence across the international Muslim community, or Ummah, due to its role as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. It’s also been a rock-solid American ally since the end of World War II. By almost always aligning with the US’ foreign policy goals, Saudi Arabia indirectly projects its influence across the Ummah, in some cases even more effectively than the US itself since it’s a fellow Muslim country that many Muslim governments and societies alike look to for guidance.

2. Investing Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars Into The US

Saudi Arabia is globally known for its wealth, which it once again reminded everyone of when it pledged to invest a whopping $600 billion into the US during Trump’s trip to the Kingdom in May 2025. Few countries are capable of doing that. Even more importantly, the previously hyperlinked readout from the White House notes that at least $100 billion will go into the American tech industry, thus helping it to compete with China. The strategic significance of such Saudi investments into the US can’t be overstated.

3. Purchasing Billions Of Dollars Of American Arms

Building upon the above, nearly $142 billion of the $600 billion that Saudi Arabia agreed to invest into the US will go to the military-industrial complex, which is an astronomical amount. To put Saudi Arabia’s purchase of American arms into perspective, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s latest report noted that Saudi Arabia was the US’ largest client and the third-largest importer in the world from 2021-2025. This immensely benefits the American military-industrial complex.

4. Serving As The Core Of The “Islamic NATO”

One of this year’s trends that began to materialize late last year is the gradual formation of what’s been called the “Islamic NATO”, which is comprised of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkiye. They’re all either NATO members like Turkiye or “Major Non-NATO Allies” like the rest. Whether the “Islamic NATO” is ever formalized or just remains a consultative platform, it’s still expected to serve as the means of advancing American military-security interests across the Ummah as the US “Leads From Behind”.

5. Preventing The Rise Of The “Petroyuan”

One of the pillars of American hegemony is the petrodollar, which Saudi Arabia helped the US institutionalize, and its continued participation in this system prevents the rise of the hypothetical “petroyuan” that many members of the Alt-Media Community have speculated about for years. So long as Saudi Arabia remains committed to the petrodollar, the “petroyuan” will remain a thought exercise, thus indefinitely preserving what’s arguably one of the most important pillars of American hegemony.

These five ways in which the US relies on Saudi Arabia provide the Kingdom with leverage if it ever musters up the political will to wield these advantages. For example, it could stop indirectly projecting US influence across the Ummah, radically reduce its investments in the US economy and its purchase of US arms, refuse to allow the “Islamic NATO” to become the US’ proxy, and/or replace the petrodollar with the “petroyuan”. It probably won’t do any of this, however, but the possibility always remains.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 02:00

J.R.R. Tolkien, The Atomic Bomb, & The Perils Of Power

Authored by Jonathan Miltimore via The Epoch Times,

On Aug. 6, 1945, the Enola Gay dropped “Little Boy” on Hiroshima, instantly killing tens of thousands and marking the first use of a nuclear weapon in warfare.

Three days later, a second bomb, “Fat Man,” was dropped on Nagasaki.

Within days, Japan surrendered, bringing World War II to an end.

For most Americans, the bombings were greeted with celebration. Polls at the time revealed that nearly 70 percent of Americans said the bombing was a “good thing,” while just 17 percent said it was a “bad thing.”

In some respects, this is no surprise.

Thanks to the bomb, the war was over.

Japan, the nation that had blindsided the United States at Pearl Harbor nearly four years earlier, had finally been brought to its knees, forced to surrender unconditionally.

Watching these events unfold from England, a professor of Anglo-Saxon literature saw something very different.

‘Utter Folly’

In 1945, J.R.R. Tolkien was a professor of Old English at Oxford and author of “The Hobbit” (1937), a book that would eventually become one of the most influential works of fantasy literature ever written.

Having served as a British Army officer in the trenches of World War I, Tolkien understood firsthand the horrors of modern warfare. Perhaps because of this, he recoiled upon learning of a new weapon that could destroy entire cities.

“The news today about ‘Atomic bombs’ is so horrifying one is stunned,” he wrote to his son Christopher. “The utter folly of these lunatic physicists to consent to do such work for war-purposes: calmly plotting the destruction of the world!”

Tolkien was no pacifist, and he recognized that U.S. President Harry Truman’s decision to drop this new superweapon might have a silver lining.

“Japan ought to cave in,” he admitted.

But even as he acknowledged the bomb’s immediate military value, Tolkien feared its long-term consequences. Humanity had crossed a threshold from which there would be no return.

“Such explosives in men’s hands,” he wrote, “while their moral and intellectual status is declining, is about as useful as giving out firearms to all inmates of a gaol and then saying that you hope ’this will ensure peace.'”

On ‘Babel-Builders’

Today, discussions over the atomic bomb usually involve whether it was morally justified to drop it on Japan. Unlike in 1945, Americans are very much split on the matter. Recent polling shows 35 percent say the bombings were justified, while 31 percent say they were not.

The fact that a full one-third of Americans say they’re not sure if the bombing was the right thing shows how morally complicated the matter is. (If you doubt this, consider that General Dwight Eisenhower and Fleet Admiral William D. Leahy opposed dropping the bomb on moral grounds and because they doubted its military necessity.)

What is less often asked is whether the bomb should have been developed at all. The question is easy to dismiss. After all, Nazi Germany launched its own nuclear research program in April 1939. Had the Allies declined to pursue the bomb, they might have handed history’s most destructive weapon to Adolf Hitler.

There is also a philosophical hurdle. Science has long been celebrated as the engine of human progress. To oppose a scientific breakthrough on ethical grounds has a whiff of Luddism—a kind of rejection of progress itself.

Tolkien, once again, saw things differently. Though admitting “we’re all in God’s hands” now, he offered a word of caution about humanity’s growing faith in its own power. “He does not look kindly on Babel-builders,” he told Christopher.

By invoking the famous Old Testament story of the Tower of Babel, in which God confused and scattered the nations for attempting to reach the heavens, Tolkien was warning against a perennial temptation: placing human ingenuity and knowledge above moral wisdom.

The theme of man’s lust for knowledge and power would be developed in his next literary masterpiece.

‘An Allegory of Our Own Time’

In 1942, as the Manhattan Project was beginning in the United States, Tolkien was developing the core narrative of what would become “The Fellowship of the Ring,” the first volume of his “The Lord of the Rings” epic.

Though the book would not be published until 1954, Tolkien spent much of the 1940s writing and revising the manuscript. The story follows a fellowship of nine companions who embark on a perilous quest to destroy the One Ring, a weapon of immense power that threatens to destroy all of Middle-earth.

The Ring is so powerful that no one—not even the heroes of the story—should possess it.

Indeed, Tolkien’s wisest and bravest characters all reject it. The wizard Gandalf refuses the Ring when it is offered to him. The elf queen Galadriel does the same. Aragorn, whose ancestor was killed after being corrupted by the Ring, is wary of its power and never seeks it.

Meanwhile, those who desire the Ring or attempt to wield its power—Boromir, Sauron, and Gollum—are ultimately destroyed by it.

The One Ring has rightly been interpreted as a metaphor for power; after all, Tolkien himself called it the “Ring of Power.” But in a 1947 letter to his publisher, he put a finer point on the idea.

“You can make the Ring an allegory of our own time, if you like,” he wrote, “an allegory of the inevitable fate that awaits all attempts to defeat evil power by power.”

These words help explain why Tolkien viewed the atomic bomb with such horror. It was a weapon created to “defeat evil power” through overwhelming force. In Tolkien’s view, the danger was not simply the weapon itself, but the modern faith in power and the belief that it could be controlled by those who possessed it.

Tolkien’s line about “Babel-builders” and “lunatic physicists” could give the impression that he rejected science. He did not. He was simply recognizing the limits of science. The fantasy writer, a devout Catholic, understood that even though scientists could unlock the power of the atom, they could not fix humanity.

By 1945, it had become apparent that moral wisdom and scientific progress do not necessarily advance at the same pace. If the Great War and the horrors of the Soviet Union in the 1930s had not made this clear, the military destruction of the 1940s and the liberation of Auschwitz in January 1945 did.

Humanity had acquired unprecedented power without acquiring the corresponding wisdom to restrain it. For Tolkien, this was the great danger of the modern age. Man was learning to harness the forces of nature even as he slid comfortably toward its oldest sins: pride, envy, and the lust for power.

None of this is to say the Ring of Power is an allegory for nuclear weapons. It is not. Tolkien himself made that quite clear in a BBC interview in the 1960s.

Yet a central lesson of his literary masterpiece is that some forms of power are simply too great for humans to possess.

Perhaps, then, the greatest virtue is not seeking out people who can wield great power wisely, but in possessing the humility to recognize that some power should never be wielded at all.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/02/2026 - 23:20

How China Is Using Its Coast Guard To Assert Control At Sea

Over the past decade, China's Coast Guard (CCG) has evolved from a conventional maritime law enforcement agency into a central instrument of Beijing's strategy to reinforce its territorial claims, according to Bloomberg.

Now operating a fleet of roughly 680 vessels, it continues to conduct routine missions such as search and rescue, anti-smuggling operations, and fisheries enforcement, but increasingly serves broader strategic objectives.

Bloomberg reports that rather than relying solely on the navy, Beijing deploys the CCG to project control over contested waters in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and around Taiwan. Coast guard vessels regularly patrol disputed areas, escort Chinese fishing fleets, inspect foreign vessels, and employ coercive measures—including water cannons, lasers, blocking maneuvers, and collisions—to challenge rival claimants. They also operate alongside the People's Liberation Army Navy during military exercises, particularly those focused on Taiwan.

CCG operations have become both more frequent and more assertive. In mid-July, Chinese coast guard ships confronted Philippine vessels on three occasions, using water cannons despite the incidents occurring within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. Taiwan has likewise reported a marked increase in CCG patrols, including sustained operations east of the island, fueling concerns that the force would play a prominent role in any future blockade or military campaign.

Analysts view the CCG as a key component of China's "gray-zone" strategy. Because its ships are presented as civilian law enforcement rather than naval assets, Beijing can press its maritime claims while making it more difficult for other countries to respond without risking military escalation. Maintaining a persistent coast guard presence also strengthens China's claim that it exercises effective control over disputed waters.

The agency's strategic importance has grown alongside institutional reforms. Created in 2013 through the merger of several maritime agencies, the CCG was placed under the People's Armed Police in 2018, bringing it under the authority of the Central Military Commission. A 2021 Coast Guard Law further broadened its powers, authorizing the use of force to defend China's claimed maritime rights. At the same time, the fleet has expanded to include some of the world's largest coast guard ships, several of which rival naval warships in size and capability.

China's increasing reliance on the CCG has prompted neighboring states to strengthen maritime cooperation, expand their own coast guard fleets, and step up patrols in disputed waters, contributing to a more contested and potentially volatile maritime environment.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/02/2026 - 22:45

'You're Like A Parrot': RFK Jr. Destroys Dana Bash Over Fauci's COVID Lies

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. obliterated CNN's Dana Bash during a fiery interview Sunday morning on State of the Union, and it was brutal.

The segment aired as measles outbreaks tore through several states, with public health officials warning that unvaccinated communities were fueling the spread of the disease to levels not seen in decades. Those outbreaks trace back to Joe Biden's presidency, when his administration allowed millions of illegal immigrants to pour across the southern border and bring diseases like measles back into communities that had all but wiped them out.

Bash spent much of the interview pushing Kennedy to look "into the camera" and tell parents to vaccinate their kids against measles. Kennedy did it.

He said exactly what she wanted him to say.

Then Bash kept going, and the interview went off the rails.

The conversation curdled into a fight over how the media treated skeptics and anyone who dared question the Biden administration's COVID-era public health guidance during the pandemic.

"You tweeted back in 2024 that [President Trump] let bureaucrats like Anthony Fauci shut down the entire country. Again, the president was in charge," Bash said to Kennedy.

“Trump, as you recall, wanted to end the lockdowns. I think the thing that did the most damage to our country was the lockdowns,” he said.

"Anthony Fauci was mismanaging the COID pandemic and he was doing it under the Biden Administration. President Trump wanted to end the lockdowns. And in fact, in Anthony Fauci's diaries, he talks about how President Trump was calling him every day, trying to get him to reopen the country," he added.

Bash continued with another accusation.

"You are the HHS secretary, and you are talking about things that lead to vaccine hesitancy in this country," she said.

"And it's something that causes problems for people when there is not anything."

Kennedy wasn't having it.

"Let me ask you something," he said.

"Do you see your job as ending vaccine hesitancy or do you see your job as telling the truth to the American people?"

Bash insisted her job was telling the truth.

"There is study after study after study," she said. "It's one of the most studied things out there in science." 

Kennedy pounced.

"You're repeating it like a parrot," he said, twice for emphasis.

Bash shot back, "So are you."

Kennedy wasn't buying it.

"I've actually read the science," he said. "You don't want to come back here and debate the science."

From there, Kennedy dismantled the premise CNN built its entire segment on: that trusting government "experts" is the same thing as trusting the truth.

"All you know how to do is repeat things that people told you and say, trust the experts," he said.

"That's what you did during COVID. Now we know that Anthony Fauci, who was the ‘expert,’ was lying about everything, about masks, about social distancing, about natural immunity, about the transmission from the vaccine, about the source of COVID. He was lying, and you were punishing people for not trusting the experts. And now you're rolling out the ‘experts’ again to talk about something that you have no personal knowledge of."

Bash tried to defend herself. "That is my job, to talk to people," she said. Kennedy wasn't finished. "Your job is to tell the truth to the American people," he replied.

.@SecKennedy NUKES @DanaBashCNN:

"I'm not debating this with you."

"Of course you won't. All you know how to do is repeat things that people told you and say, 'Trust the experts!' That's what you did during Covid. Now we know that Anthony Fauci, who was the 'expert,' was… pic.twitter.com/IVRLJfDSZ6

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) August 2, 2026

If Bash thought she could lob a bunch of accusations against Kennedy and he would take it quietly, she was sorely mistaken. Kennedy didn't dodge a single question. He turned every one of them into an indictment of a press corps that spent years demanding blind obedience and calling it science.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/02/2026 - 22:10

Jay Clayton To Become Top US Intel Official On Monday

Jay Clayton will take over as director of national intelligence (DNI) on Monday, according to a social media post by acting director Bill Pulte.

“I am eternally grateful to President Trump for the opportunity to serve as Director of National Intelligence, while he completed historic declassifications and we right sized the ODNI. I have no doubt that Jay will do a tremendous job,” Pulte wrote on Aug. 1 in a post on X.

“I have offered Jay my complete and total support as he transitions to take over this incredible agency!”

As Tom Gantert reports for The Epoch Times, the Senate confirmed Clayton as the next director of national intelligence in a 51–47 vote on July 28 after advancing his nomination in a series of largely party-line votes.

Pulte was appointed as acting director after Tulsi Gabbard resigned from the position to support her husband following his cancer diagnosis.

Pulte faced criticism from top Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who described him as “unqualified” and lacking intelligence experience.

During his confirmation hearing, Clayton pledged to strengthen trust in the intelligence community and improve coordination among intelligence agencies.

Democrats opposed his nomination, citing concerns over his testimony and ties to Trump, while Republicans described him as well qualified for the position.

Democrats criticized Clayton after his confirmation hearing for saying that Joe Biden was “certified as the president of the United States.”

“It has been clear for months that, under this administration, the main qualification to be DNI is the willingness to use the position to spread conspiracy theories about elections and to help Donald Trump make it harder for Americans to vote,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), said in a July 28 press release.

Trump praised Clayton following the confirmation, calling him “outstanding in every way.”

Clayton is a former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, where he took on cases involving terrorists, cartels, and major national security threats, and is the former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to the White House.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence was created by Congress in 2004 following recommendations from the 9/11 Commission to improve coordination among U.S. intelligence agencies after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

The DNI serves as the head of the U.S. Intelligence Community, overseeing and coordinating the work of 18 intelligence agencies and organizations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/02/2026 - 21:35

India To Climate Cartel: Count Us Out

Authored by Vijay Jayaraj via American Greatness,

Sometimes a story gets buried not because editors conspire against it, but because the news cycle has room for only one crisis at a time.

This year the big news has been the Iran war. But even accounting for competing headlines, the silence around a genuinely consequential development is telling.

And that is the story of India’s explicit rejection of the global net zero movement. India has walked away from its bid to host the COP33 UN climate conference, and the world’s climate press has treated it as a footnote rather than the signal it is.

India had spent years projecting a rising voice in the development of climate policy, and hosting a COP33 is the closest thing the bureaucracy has to a coronation.

Then, quietly, without public explanation, India withdrew its offer. No press conference. No elaboration. Just a government stepping back from a role for which it auditioned for years.

The truth is India has run the numbers on the cost of a net-zero energy transition for a population of 1.4 billion climbing out of poverty, and it does not like what it sees.

The notion that India should shackle its economy by adhering to restrictive climate policies, while its people still grapple with energy deficits, is illogical and morally indefensible.

Data India Doesn’t Need a Summit to See

Furthermore, the narrative of a rapidly degrading Indian environment due to energy consumption is demonstrably false.

India’s own environmental indicators do not support the apocalyptic framing of the climate-obsessed.

For years, hydrologists and climate modelers have relied on estimates of Himalayan snowfall to forecast water availability for hundreds of millions of people across South Asia’s most fertile Ganges plains.

Their projections of a seriously drier India, it turns out, were wrong.

A team of researchers, including scientists from the British Antarctic Survey, the U.K. Met Office, and the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, used frozen high-altitude lakes as natural pressure sensors rather than relying on undersized conventional rain gauges. What they found was startling: In a single winter, the best available snowfall models had underestimated seasonal snow over the Lake Hampta area of Himachal Pradesh by 37 percent. The peer-reviewed study makes clear that conventional instruments have been missing large volumes of snow for decades.

Then there is the vegetation story, which cuts even harder against the doom narrative. Researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology modeled how India’s landscape would respond to a high-emissions future using the same family of computer models climate activists cite when warning of catastrophe.

The result was not desertification. It was the opposite. Gross primary production, a measure of how much carbon dioxide India’s forests, croplands, and other vegetation are absorbing, rose from roughly 729 grams of carbon per square meter annually in 1985 to about 830 by 2014 and is projected to nearly double to around 1,305 by the year 2100.

Layered onto that are the steady expansion of India’s forest cover over the past two decades and the recovering populations of endangered species such as tigers and Asiatic lions, successes resulting from conservation and habitat management rather than from decarbonization mandates.

All this means India has stopped outsourcing its environmental judgment to a U.N. process that treats every barrel of oil and every ton of coal as a moral affront, regardless of its benefit in lighting a clinic for children or powering a steel plant that employs thousands. A country that still has hundreds of millions of citizens without reliable access to electricity does not have the luxury of treating energy poverty as an acceptable trade-off for leadership in the climate industrial complex.

That is why India has expanded coal production and struck oil and gas deals with the United States and Persian Gulf producers. It has resisted binding emissions targets that would cap its own industrial growth, unwilling to commit to far-off targets for emission reductions. India’s relinquishment of COP33 hosting rights is perhaps the most visible expression of a strategic direction that has been building for years.

A country that the entire architecture of climate financing is supposedly built to help just declined to host the party. If climate summits worked as advertised, that would be unthinkable. But it is no longer, and pretending otherwise will not make the next withdrawal any less predictable.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/02/2026 - 21:00

Is Anybody Ever Going To Say, "I'm Sorry"?

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

This week, Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared before Congress and, on the advice of his attorney, repeatedly invoked the Fifth Amendment rather than answering many of the senators’ questions.

Everyone is talking about what he did or didn’t know, whether he misled Congress, whether he should have answered the questions, and whether he should be held accountable.

But that wasn’t the moment from this week that I can’t stop thinking about.

My husband called me as he was driving home from picking up grain for the hogs. He had stopped at Restaurant Depot to grab pizza boxes and a few supplies for the ranch. Rarely does he pay attention to American politics. Rarely is he interested in the stories that consume me.

He simply asked, “What’s going on with Fauci?”

I explained that he had spent much of the hearing invoking the Fifth Amendment rather than answering senators’ questions.

There was a long pause.

Then he asked me something that caught me completely off guard.

“Is anybody ever going to say, ‘I’m sorry. I was wrong. It cost you and your family everything?”

I had to choke back tears because no—nobody has ever said that to us.

My husband and I worked hard. We built businesses. We lived what most people would call the American dream. We weren’t looking for a bailout. We weren’t failing. In fact, when COVID-19 hit, we were just weeks away from selling our restaurant company under a $31 million contract.

Then came “two weeks to slow the spread.”

Two weeks became months. Months became years.

Government policies, not the virus itself, destroyed everything we had spent decades building.

This hearing didn’t make me feel any better. If anything, it ripped open wounds that had finally started to scar over.

Americans are still carrying losses that will never appear on a government balance sheet. They exist instead as tears in the fabric of lives that once felt secure. Businesses built over decades disappeared. Retirement accounts were drained. Marriages came under tremendous financial pressure. Ours was one of them. Homes were lost. Careers ended. Dreams were abandoned. Six years later, many of those wounds have not healed.

It would be easy to make this article about Fauci, but the truth is he is just one bureaucrat.

He may be the most recognizable face of the pandemic response and one of its highest-paid officials, but he was never acting alone. Governors issued orders. County health departments enforced them. School boards complied. Corporate executives complied. Church leaders complied. Republicans complied. Democrats complied.

And so did we, the people.

That may be the hardest part for me to admit. Yes, I am angry at Fauci, but, to be honest, I am just as angry at us.

When I say “us,” I don’t mean that I personally embraced those policies. I questioned them from the beginning.

I have never been vaccinated. That wasn’t a decision I made because of COVID-19. It was how I had lived my entire life. My mother raised me to question pharmaceuticals and to be cautious about trusting the government. That foundation shaped how I viewed the pandemic from the very beginning.

I don’t think that made me special. I think it made me less susceptible to what I believe was the greatest psychological operation of my lifetime.

But we, the people, largely complied.

We accepted the closure of our churches.

We accepted the destruction of small businesses.

We accepted keeping children out of school.

We accepted that bureaucrats knew better than families, business owners, pastors, physicians, and neighbors.

I believe we knew remarkably early that COVID-19 posed overwhelmingly different levels of risk depending on age and overall health. I believe we knew that respiratory viruses are ultimately resolved through herd immunity. We knew children and healthy adults were at extraordinarily low risk compared with the elderly and those with serious underlying health conditions.

Yet instead of allowing the conversation to evolve as the evidence accumulated, fear became the dominant force. Questioning the policies often became more unacceptable than questioning whether the policies were actually working.

This wasn’t simply one man’s failure.

It was a national failure.

Bureaucrats at every level implemented policies that devastated ordinary Americans. Republicans and Democrats alike largely fell in line. Many citizens did as well, whether out of fear, trust, social pressure, or the belief that someone else surely knew better.

Those of us who resisted often paid dearly. My family certainly did.

I thought that chapter of my life was over. I thought I had graduated from wondering how I was going to pay the bills. I had lived that life in my 20s and early 30s. I had spent decades working eighty-hour weeks to build something that finally gave my family financial stability.

Then pandemic policies tore it all down, forcing me to start over.

Today, at 48, I find myself greeting every customer who walks through the door, hoping they’ll come back and tell a friend. I write every day, hoping my words ripple outward and bring people who believe in what we’re building.

I am grateful to still have the opportunity to build.

But this is not where I imagined I would be after decades of working to finally get ahead.

A virus did not destroy everything I built.

Government policies did.

That doesn’t mean every decision was made with bad intentions.

It does mean that good intentions can still produce devastating consequences, and when those consequences permanently alter millions of lives, accountability matters. Humility matters. The willingness to simply say, “We were wrong,” matters.

This week, my husband asked me a question I still don’t know how to answer.

“Is anybody ever going to say, ‘I’m sorry. I was wrong. It cost you and your family everything?”

I don’t know if that day will ever come.

But I do know this.

This week, in that congressional hearing, was not that day.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/02/2026 - 19:50