Scientists Boost Battery, Fuel Cell Performance By Over 300%

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

Researchers in South Korea have developed a new catalyst design strategy that boosts the efficiency of reactions used in batteries and hydrogen fuel cells without changing the catalyst itself.

New catalyst approach could improve fuel cells and batteries  (Representational image)Shutterstock

The team, led by Professor Seung Jun Hwang of POSTECH and Professor Jaeyune Ryu of Seoul National University, found that adjusting the electrical environment around a catalyst can significantly improve its performance. The approach could help reduce energy losses in next-generation energy systems while improving efficiency and stability.

Catalysts are materials that speed up chemical reactions. They are essential components in technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells and metal-air batteries, where they help drive the reactions that generate electricity.

Traditionally, researchers improve catalysts by changing the central metal, such as iron, cobalt, or nickel, or by redesigning the surrounding molecular structure known as a ligand. The new study takes a different route by leaving the catalyst largely unchanged and instead modifying the electric field around it.

Electric Fields Drive Gains

The researchers demonstrated that placing positively charged ions, known as cations, near the catalyst creates a localized electric field that influences how reactions proceed.

The team focused on the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), a key electrochemical process that generates electricity in fuel cells and metal-air batteries. Improving this reaction has long been a goal because it directly affects device efficiency and energy consumption.

Experiments showed that the share of the desired reaction pathway increased from roughly 12 percent to as much as 52 percent when the electric field was introduced. This allowed the reaction to occur more efficiently while requiring less energy.

According to the researchers, the results suggest that catalyst performance can be tuned through environmental control rather than by redesigning catalyst materials from scratch. Such an approach could simplify future catalyst development and lower costs associated with creating new materials.

Beyond Batteries And Fuel

The implications may extend beyond energy storage and hydrogen technologies. The researchers believe the same principle could be applied to catalysts used for carbon dioxide conversion and environmentally friendly hydrogen production.

Many clean-energy technologies rely on catalysts to control complex chemical reactions. Being able to improve those reactions by adjusting local electrical conditions could provide a new tool for designing more efficient systems.

"This study demonstrates that reaction properties can be precisely controlled solely through the surrounding electrical environment, without changing the structure of the catalyst itself," said Hwang.

The researchers say the findings open a new direction for catalyst engineering by shifting attention from the catalyst's structure to its operating environment.

The oxygen reduction reaction examined in the study is a core process in hydrogen fuel cells, which generate electricity from hydrogen and oxygen, as well as metal-air batteries that use oxygen from the atmosphere as part of the energy storage process.

"We expect it to present a new direction for developing next-generation batteries, fuel cells, and eco-friendly energy catalyst technologies," Hwang added.

If the approach can be scaled and applied across different catalyst systems, it could help improve the performance of a wide range of clean-energy technologies without requiring entirely new catalyst materials.

The study was published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 19:15

Central Bank Gold Buying Rebounds In April From Dramatic March Selloff

First the good news: according to the latest World Gold Council update, central banks, a key pillar of the bullish case for gold, have returned to adding holdings in April after notable selling in March sent the price of the precious metal tumbling. The 17 ton purchase represents a turnaround from steep sales in March, which at nearly 30 tons were the largest monthly gold sales in years, driven almost entirely by Turkey. Poland remained the top buyer in the month, while China accelerated its pace of purchases. 

According to WGC, Poland remained be the top buyer in the month (14t), while China intensified its pace of purchases: its 8t net purchase was the highest since December 2024 and extends its current buying run to 18 consecutive months. The Czech Republic shows similar consistency in purchases, having bought 3t in April, its 38th consecutive monthly purchase. Meanwhile, Russia continues its sales streak this month (6t), with y-t-d sales of 22t.

Reported activity in April and y-t-d was concentrated in: 

• National Bank of Poland drove much of April’s buying activity, having bought 14t. This brings Poland’s y-t-d gold purchases to 45t with its gold reserves at595t or about 30% of its total reserves.
• People’s Bank of China added 8t to its gold reserves during the month, highest since December 2024. Official gold reserves now stand at 9% of total reserves or around 2,322t. China has been consistently purchasing gold over the past 18 consecutive months.
• Czech National Bank’s modest but consistent 2t net purchases in April brings its gold reserves to 79t or 6% of its total reserves.
• Meanwhile, Central Bank of Uzbekistan sold 1t this month, though on a y-t-d basis, it remains a net purchaser (24t) and is second only to Poland. Uzbekistan’s reserves make up 88% of its total reserves or around 414t.
• Central Bank of Russia continued it recent streak of net sales for the fourth month with reported April net sales of 6t.
• March’s top seller, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey reported virtually flat gold reserves in April, with weekly data showing that short-term gold/USD swaps matured in April, leaving only longer-term (1-3 month) gold/USD swaps outstanding. More on Turkey’s recent reserve management operations can be found in our recently published Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026.
• Eastern European and Asian central banks continue to dominate gold purchases with consistent purchases. Over the past 36 months, both regions have purchased 12t and 11t per month on average collectively. Global central banks activity shows average net purchases of 29t over the same period (Chart 2).

Now the bad news: according to Goldman, even as the rebound signals a return to sturdy central bank demand, it’s trending at a fraction of last year’s average pace. Meanwhile, the driver of last year's tremendous move higher which pushed gold above $5000, has yet to return: the furious ETF buying that characterized the meltup phase in gold, is not there; in fact, ETFs continue to sell as all momentum-chasing liquidity has landed in such areas as chip and memory stocks.

That underscores that the market is currently more focused on the near-term headwinds for the bullion rather than its structural tailwinds.

Meanwhile, with Treasury yields and the dollar grinding higher as the US economy proves surprisingly resilient in the face of elevated oil prices, and with positioning on the back foot, the path ahead for gold remains challenged.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:50

House Passes Dem Resolution to Block U.S. Military Action Against Iran In Narrow Vote

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution on June 3 directing the withdrawal of U.S. troops from armed hostilities with Iran, in a closely divided 215–208 vote.

Four Republicans joined Democrats in supporting the measure, which invokes the 1973 War Powers Resolution to require President Donald Trump to either end the operations or seek explicit congressional approval to continue them.

The resolution comes amid ongoing tensions in the region.

Although Washington and Tehran announced a ceasefire on April 7, U.S. forces have enforced an armed blockade of Iranian ports, leading to several exchanges of fire.

On June 2, U.S. forces struck an oil tanker, prompting Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. positions in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Mixed Reactions and Political Context

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) argued that the timing of the resolution was problematic, as it could interfere with President Trump’s ongoing efforts to negotiate a lasting peace agreement with Iran.

“The president is now in the process of concluding a peace agreement, and we have to allow him the latitude to do that,” Johnson said. “I think a war powers resolution right now is very untimely.”

In contrast, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said Congress should have acted sooner to pull back U.S. forces. She expressed hope that more Republicans would support the measure, stating, “I’m hoping that they will see the light.”

This marks the second attempt in recent weeks. A similar resolution failed on May 14 in a 212–212 tie. Republican leadership had previously postponed a scheduled May 21 vote.

The measure now moves to the Senate, where passage is uncertain, and it would likely face a veto from President Trump if approved.

The vote reflects deepening divisions in Congress over the scope and authorization of U.S. military involvement in the Iran conflict, which began escalating in late February.

Supporters of the resolution argue it upholds congressional authority under the War Powers Resolution, which generally requires presidents to withdraw forces from unauthorized hostilities within 60 days (with a possible 30-day extension for safe withdrawal).

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:25

Broadcom Crashes After AI Chip Revenue Forecast Misses

Broadcaom stock is plunging in after-hours trading, after the company reported Q2 results which delivered a disappointing forecast for AI chip revenue, signaling that the company is either progressing more slowly than anticipated in the burgeoning industry, or that unlike its peers, is actually truthful in predicting the potential of the AI bubble.

The historicals were ok: in the fiscal second quarter, which ended May 3, sales rose 48% to $22.2 billion, just barely beating the $22.1 estimate. AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion, also just barely above estimates of $10.7 billion. That category includes custom-built accelerators - the chips used to develop and run AI models - as well as networking semiconductors. Adjusted EPS climbed to $2.44 a share, also modestly beat the median estimate of $2.39.

But the forecast was a problem: AI semiconductor revenue will be $16 billion in the fiscal third quarter, missing analyst estimates of $17.2 billion. Total revenue will be about $29.4 billion, which while higher than the $28.6 billion median estimate was below some buyside bogeys which ranged billions of dollars higher. EBITDA guidance of 68.0%, also missed the street at 69.1%.

The forecast miss is concerning: Broadcom has signed and expanded long-term deals with companies like Google, Anthropic and Meta but questions remain as to how much revenue will be recognized in each quarter, as opposed to being accounted for in a multiyear backlog. 

Investors were also disappointed after the company kept its full year AI target at 10GW in 2027 and $100BN in chip sales for the full year, instead of boosting guidance as it had in prior quarters. The pressure was also margin related as GOOGL TPU growth generating lower margins than networking and software. 

CEO Hock Tan has tied the company’s fortunes to AI gear, betting on a rapid expansion of data centers and other infrastructure. While Nvidia remains the dominant maker of AI accelerators, Broadcom has positioned itself as a key alternative. 

In hopes of boosting its operational leverage, Broadcom has been taking a bigger role helping finance the purchase of chips. As Bloomberg reported over the weekend, Apollo and Blackstone are working on a roughly $36 billion debt financing deal to help Anthropic pay for its Google chips that Broadcom helped develop. Broadcom is backstopping payments on the largest portions of the transaction, Bloomberg reported. So we have yet another circular deal: Broadcom is funding the SPV that will allow Anthropic to pay Google for Broadcom chips. You can see why the entire AI industry is now so careful about even the smallest drawdown: if even the smallest cracks appear, questions will once again start swirling about risk and ROI, and now that there are over $600BN in private credit SPV backstopping future growth, the entire house of cards could come crashing down.

Against that backdrop, the latest report failed to satisfy investors, with the stock crashing over 12% in late trading, erasing all the recent "gamma squeeze" gains orchestrated by market makers to set the stage for the coming mega IPOs. It was up 38% this year through the close; those gains have been cut in half after the results. 

 

While Broadcom has made progress in pivoting to artificial intelligence customers, it finds itself against increasingly cutthroat competition and higher expectations. Broadcom added roughly $270 billion in market value over the last five trading sessions before the earnings report, fueled by AI optimism. All of that has been wiped out. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:18

SPLC Employee Funneled $1.2 Million To Neo-Nazi Lover - And More: DOJ Superseding Indictment

The Southern Poverty Law Center built a massive empire - ballooning to over $787 million in assets - by promising donors it was the frontline defender against "hate" and white supremacy. But according to the Department of Justice's superseding indictment, the organization allegedly funneled millions in tax-exempt donor dollars to the very extremists it publicly condemned.

The Juiciest Revelation: The $1.2 Million Romantic Entanglement

One of the most shocking details involves "F-9" - a field source affiliated with the neo-Nazi National Alliance. The SPLC allegedly paid this individual over $1.2 million while F-9 was in a romantic relationship with an SPLC employee.

While on the SPLC payroll, F-9 reportedly continued raising funds for the National Alliance.

1⃣ NATIONAL ALLIANCE

SPLC paid over $1.2M to "F-9," who was in a romantic relationship with an SPLC employee

While receiving SPLC donors' money, F-9 also raised funds for the National Alliance.

5/20

- Tyler O'Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) June 3, 2026

Other Damning Allegations From The Superseding Indictment

• F-30 (Nazi/KKK/Aryan Nations leader): Paid more than $70K after asking to leave the movement. Instead, the SPLC allegedly kept them on salary to host rallies, recruit, and publish extremist material.
• F-31 & F-32 (KKK members): Wanted out in 2010 but were allegedly bribed to stay active. Funds reimbursed cross-burning materials, including wood and fuel, and helped them gain leadership roles.
• F-37 (Unite the Right): Paid over $300K. This individual was in the leadership chat for the 2017 Charlottesville rally, made racist posts under SPLC supervision, and arranged transportation for attendees.
• F-42 (Neo-Nazi National Alliance chairman): Received $155K+ while simultaneously listed on the SPLC's own "Extremist File" webpage.
• Additional payments: Approximately $350K to a National Socialist Movement officer and $19K to American Front's national president, a convicted cross-burning felon.

READ IT

The Justice Department just secured a superseding indictment against the Southern Poverty Law Center, and it reveals some new bombshells

1/20

- Tyler O'Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) June 3, 2026

The Bigger Picture: Alleged Hate-For-Profit Machine

The DOJ alleges the SPLC used fictitious entities and shell accounts, including fake "Rare Books" employment covers, to conceal payments totaling over $4 million. Donors were told the money would dismantle extremism - instead, it allegedly sustained rallies, recruitment, racist paraphernalia, and living expenses for extremists. The organization is accused of making payments amounting to over $1 million to a National Alliance affiliate, more than $300,000 to an Aryan Nations affiliate, $270,000 to a “Unite the Right” member, $140,000 to a former National Alliance chairman, $73,000 to former KKK members, and $19,000 to an American Front president and felon.

This ties into charges of wire fraud, false statements to banks, and conspiracy to commit concealment money laundering. Upon conviction, the SPLC could forfeit assets traceable to the alleged scheme.

The SPLC has denied wrongdoing, calling the program legitimate intelligence-gathering that has since been discontinued, and framing the case as political retaliation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:00

Federal Inspection Reportedly Finds Delaney Hall In Compliance On Virtually All Standards

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

Democratic Governor Mikie Sherrill has repeatedly claimed that conditions in the Delaney Hall ICE facility are abhorrent, inhuman, and intolerable. Democratic leaders claimed that the conditions were so horrific that there was a hunger strike going on.

As is often the case, there is a closed loop of information fueling such claims. The media ran allegations from advocacy groups, politicians repeated the media reports as fact, and then lawyers cited both as the basis for a lawsuit to shut down the site. The problem is an actual federal inspection that found the facility to be in compliance with virtually every standard.

The most recent investigative report conducted by the DHS Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR) found compliance with 17 out of 22 standards. The errors were comparatively minor to the sweeping claims made by Sherrill and others.

The investigation, performed by six OPR officers and four outside contractors, found only 5 areas of violation, including ice buildup in the freezers, fingerprinting omissions, and improper labeling of cleaning equipment.

Moreover, ICE has supplied records showing that state officials have been allowed into the facility for their own inspections, releasing proof from a May 28 visit. Despite such access, Democratic politicians and activists continued to spread the false claim that there have been no such inspections, rotting food, and disgusting conditions.

In support of the state lawsuit, Sherrill proclaimed

"If the GEO Group - with a $1 billion government contract - has nothing to hide and the conditions inside Delaney Hall are as safe and as sanitary as this private corporation and the Trump Administration claim, then there is no legitimate reason why my health inspectors are being kept from full access throughout the building. The people of New Jersey deserve transparency and accountability, and I will continue using all the power of this office to advocate for the detainees and their families."

The complaint generally refers to public reports as the basis for the action:

"Since then, public reporting has raised significant concerns about public health conditions in the facility, including overcrowding and lack of ventilation; lack of or inadequate medical care or hygiene practices; unsanitary food and drink preparation and storage; and the unchecked spread of communicable diseases like COVID-19 and Influenza."

That will make for an interesting hearing on the new lawsuit, where the court may question the good-faith accounts made in filings or public statements. The complaint is notably framed in vague terms about the underlying claims and the sources for those allegations.

It notably only asks for access, avoiding a direct demand for a finding of violations.

In the meantime, Sherrill continues to claim that local police are present to protect protesters from the ICE violence and repeats these claims about conditions at the facility.

DHS has continued to rebut claims made by politicians and pundits. However, few of those facts are penetrating the coverage of the protests or changing the sweeping claims being made by elected officials.

This lawsuit could allow for a full consideration of the claims and the facts surrounding the facility.

Here is the complaint: Washington v. The GEO Group

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 17:40

India Throws Open The Bond Gates: Modi Slashes Foreign Investor Taxes In Scramble To Halt Rupee Collapse

Having spent the better part of a decade assuring the world that the Indian growth miracle was self-sustaining, structurally sound, and impervious to the “fragile five” indignities of yesteryear, New Delhi has quietly arrived at the only conclusion that ever follows a currency in freefall: print incentives, slash taxes, and beg foreigners to please, please come back.

According to Bloomberg, India is poised to announce a suite of measures to lure foreign capital - reducing taxes and removing ownership caps on certain bonds - possibly as soon as this week. The cabinet is expected to consider a “significant cut” in the taxes global funds pay on Indian bonds, with officials reportedly weighing whether to eliminate the 20% levy on bond interest income entirely, or shave it down to what the people familiar described as “a bare minimum.” Translation: foreigners weren’t biting, and somebody in the Finance Ministry finally noticed.

Separately, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to designate some long-tenor sovereign notes as “fully accessible,” allowing overseas investors to load up without limits. Readers will recall that the last tweak to this so-called Fully Accessible Route (FAR) came in 2024, when the RBI removed 14- and 30-year bonds from the list. So to recap the master plan: pull the long bonds out in 2024, watch the currency crater, then shove them back in 2026 and call it reform. Smart. 

Meanwhile, the rupee printed an all-time low of 96.9650 on May 20, capping a year in which it became the second-worst-performing currency in Asia, down more than 6% against the dollar. This is the same currency that the consensus crowd spent 2024 lauding as “among the least volatile in emerging markets,” back when foreign funds were piling into FAR bonds ahead of the JPMorgan index inclusion to the tune of nearly $10 billion. As we noted at the time, that “stability” was the entire allure... but stability built on hot money flows has a nasty habit of evaporating precisely when you need it.

It evaporated. The official list of culprits reads like a greatest-hits compilation of things that were supposedly “priced in”: US trade tariffs, record foreign fund outflows, and an oil shock courtesy of the Iran war that detonated India’s import bill. Modi himself was reduced to publicly imploring citizens to conserve foreign exchange - a phrase that should send a chill down the spine of anyone who remembers 2013, when New Delhi slapped capital controls on its own residents and restricted gold imports as the rupee buckled. Back then, those measures “raised concerns of outright capital controls” that would further undermine the confidence of foreign investors. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme, in Hindi.

The rupee has since clawed back from the 96.97 abyss to close at 95.71 per dollar, helped by the central bank “stepping up support” (read: torching reserves) and oil easing on renewed US-Iran peace overtures (read: rapid strategic reserve drain). The 10-year yield ticked up a single basis point to 7.02%. Markets, naturally, are treating the prospect of tax-cut-fueled inflows as salvation - the same way they treated index inclusion as salvation, right before the biggest bond selloff in a year hit the moment the currency wobbled.

The government is also expected to notify a plan permitting “persons resident outside India” - PROIs, because just like in the West, every desperate measure needs a cheerful acronym - to buy shares in listed Indian companies via the portfolio investment scheme. More doors, more access, more pleading.

The deeper irony is the one nobody in New Delhi will say out loud: a country that genuinely believed in its own growth story wouldn’t need to bribe foreigners with tax exemptions to hold its paper. You cut taxes on bond interest when the organic bid has gone missing and the marginal buyer has to be paid to show up. 

We’ve seen this movie before: in 2013, in 2024, and now again in 2026. The rupee makes a record low, the foreigners head for the exits, the central bank empties the tank defending the line, and then the politburo “discovers” the virtues of liberalization at exactly the moment of maximum weakness. Reform by panic. As always, the gates open widest right when the people inside are most eager to leave.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 17:20

California's 'Wealth' Tax Is Coming For Everyone

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

If you own property in California, you're not safe. A new ballot measure will empower the state to confiscate a percentage of the assets of any resident, even though its initial provisions don't communicate that intent. California's "One-Time Wealth Tax for State-Funded Healthcare, Education, and Food Assistance Programs Initiative," which has already qualified for the November ballot, is even worse than it appears.

It's not as if appearances aren't bad enough. The explicit intent of the initiative already chased at least six billionaires out of the state in 2025. Moved to Florida are Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, along with PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel. Nevada is now home to billionaire Don Hankey, and Texas has welcomed former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick. Famed director Steven Spielberg has moved to New York, apparently concluding even that deep blue state is a safer bet than California. Just the departure of these six men has lowered the potential take from the wealth tax by an estimated $27 billion.

A Hoover Institution study claims that another 20 California billionaires have already made departure plans and will leave immediately if the initiative is approved by voters. One of the initiative's many diabolical provisions is that it will apply retroactively to anyone living in the state after January 1, 2026, but unlike the six who got out in 2025, this next tranche of would-be exiles have been advised by their attorneys that the initiative's retroactivity will not survive a constitutional challenge.

Other details of this initiative are likely to survive court challenges, and they reveal a stunning level of aggression toward wealth. If you live in California, and this bill is approved by voters, you will have to pay a "one-time" tax of 5 percent of your "covered assets" valued over $1 billion. "Covered assets" include unrealized gains in the value of stock owned by employees of private companies. It is unlikely the framers of this initiative didn't understand the implications of this provision. Valuations of private companies are subjective, volatile, and illiquid. An employee with stock options valued at a few billion in the last private equity round could be assessed tens of millions of dollars in wealth tax on money they don't actually have access to, based on a value that could plummet at any moment.

It gets worse. The language of the wealth act provides for what amounts to unrestricted escalation of its reach, something that will surely become necessary when high earners are driven away, taking their taxable assets with them. Built into the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act is the right of the state legislature to amend its provisions with a two-thirds vote. That would include lowering the $1 billion threshold, replacing "one-time" with an annual assessment, and eliminating the exemptions currently present for real estate and retirement accounts. The wording of this initiative is purposely designed to give the state legislature the authority to override the property tax protections afforded by Proposition 13, passed by voters in 1978 and one of the only obstacles left that prevents the state from stripping the state's middle class of assets they've earned and stewarded over generations.

It is ridiculous to think California's state legislature cannot muster a two-thirds vote, anytime they wish, in order to extend the reach of the "Billionaire Tax Act" down to "millionaires," which, in California, is almost anyone who has owned their own home for more than a decade. In both houses of California's state legislature, 75 percent of the seats are held by Democrats. The overwhelming percentage of Democrats in California, and, for that matter, a sizable portion of the state's dwindling contingent of Republicans, are controlled by the state's powerful public sector unions. And more than anything else, these unions have one guiding principle: grow government, because bigger government means more membership, and more membership means more dues revenue. That's the reason that the top 10, if not the top 50, largest contributors to winning campaigns for seats in the state legislature are all public sector unions.

To grow support for more government, you must grow dependency on government, and to that end, California's state legislature has engineered a perfect storm. Every decade, more regulations buried small emerging competitive businesses, allowing the biggest and most politically compliant businesses to gain captive markets. And in complying with the state's overregulation, lacking competition, these politically favored businesses passed the increased costs of regulatory compliance on to their customers. Voila, California's energy, water, transportation, higher education, housing, and all government services became increasingly unaffordable. And as households, by the millions, could no longer afford to survive economically, government aid stepped in to fill the gap.

The numbers support this assessment. Between 2010 and 2025, when the state's total population only increased incrementally by about 1.5 million people, the number of participants in California's taxpayer-funded food aid benefits soared from 3.7 million to 5.5 million, and the state's Medi-Cal enrollment exploded from 7 million to 15 million, over one-third of the population.

Everything California's state government has done over the past 15 years has exploded commensurately. The state General Fund in 2010 was $87 billion. In 2025 it was $228 billion. Even adjusting for inflation, spending more than doubled when the total population barely budged. And what of this population?

Over the period from 2010 to 2025, nearly 10 million people moved from California to other states. The people moving into California and the people choosing to remain in California are increasingly characterized as either high-income residents who can withstand the high cost of living or low-income residents who depend on government assistance. California's Gini Coefficient, at 0.49, puts it in a virtual tie with New York and Connecticut as the states with the worst income inequality in the nation. To claim this is the fault of billionaires is a convenient lie, promulgated by the very politicians whose own policies were the true cause.

It ought to be clear to anyone who has spent any time in sunny California, a place blessed with literally every scenic amenity imaginable from alpine peaks to sandy beaches, the best wine on earth and spectacular coastal cities, that the only thing that could possibly induce them to not want to live here permanently would be an overtly hostile government. And that's exactly what has happened. Every major challenge California faces is the product of a government that has decided to serve itself instead of the people.

The model of "democracy" that California has perfected can be summed up in one sentence: overregulate an economy to make life unaffordable without government handouts, then win elections by promising more government handouts to people who can't live without them. It is unsustainable, because as the old cliche goes, pretty soon you run out of other people's money. The exodus of California's wealthiest residents is the latest iteration of this doom loop.

Far removed from idealistic fantasies sold to voters, this is the reality of progressive politics in California. Given half a chance, it will be exported to the rest of the nation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 17:00

Gold Dethrones The King: ECB Confirms Barbarous Relic Has Overtaken Treasuries As Top Global Reserve Asset

In what can only be described as the latest humiliating blow to the crumbling Pax Americana, gold has officially overtaken US government bonds as the world's top reserve asset.

The FT reports that, according to a fresh report from the European Central Bank released Tuesday, bullion now accounts for 27% of global central bank reserves at the end of 2025 - up sharply from 20% the prior year.

US Treasuries, once the untouchable king of the reserve world, have been knocked down to 22% from 25%. The euro's share remained flat at 15%.

This isn't some organic portfolio rebalancing. It's a full-scale de-dollarization revolt years in the making, turbocharged by Washington's own weaponization of the dollar.

“Geopolitical tensions continue to drive strong central bank demand for gold,” wrote ECB President Christine Lagarde in the report - in the driest possible bureaucrat speak while watching the system she helped build slowly circle the drain.

Central banks are now sitting on more than 36,000 tonnes of gold — nearly matching the peak hoarding levels seen during the final days of the Bretton Woods system (38,000 tonnes). You know, back when money was still somewhat tethered to reality.

The message from the periphery is crystal clear: trust in the US dollar as the ultimate reserve currency is eroding fast.

The catalyst? The same one we have been screaming about for years - the reckless weaponization of SWIFT and dollar reserves.

After Washington froze Russia's FX reserves following the 2022 Ukraine invasion, every finance minister from Brasília to Beijing got the memo: Never let them do this to us.

The numbers tell the story of quiet desperation.

China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been the most aggressive gold stackers since 2022.

Even Tether, the stablecoin giant, became the single largest buyer in 2025, slurping up over 100 tonnes.

Because nothing says "we believe in the system" like parking your balance sheet in physical gold while issuing dollar-pegged liabilities.

Of course, there are cracks in the narrative.

Turkey - after aggressively buying 220 tonnes post-2022 - executed one of the largest reserve drawdowns in recent memory in early 2026, selling or lending out 130 tonnes amid the fallout from the Iran war.

Even gold bugs sometimes need liquidity when things get spicy.

Still, the broader trend is unmistakable.

While dollar-denominated assets still make up 42% of reserves overall, the trajectory is brutally obvious to anyone not drinking the mainstream financial media Kool-Aid.

Gold's surge wasn't just about central bank buying (which slowed modestly to 850 tonnes in 2025 after multiple 1,000+ tonne years). It was supercharged by the metal's explosive rally, smashing through $5,500 per ounce earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the ECB couldn't resist patting itself on the back, noting the euro's "gradual but steady" gains in international usage, with euro-denominated debt issuance hitting record highs and massive capital inflows into euro assets.

Translation: At least someone still wants our funny money... for now.

The bond market's loss is gold's gain - and history suggests this kind of shift rarely ends with a whimper. When central banks themselves start treating Treasuries like a fading brand and gold like the ultimate insurance policy, the writing is on the wall for the dollar's exorbitant privilege.

The only question left is how much longer the music can keep playing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 16:40

Never Let Politicians Decide What Is True

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

We are living through an age that has abandoned the dedicated pursuit of truth. Our politicians and news personalities talk about "the narrative." Our academies teach young minds to accept "expert opinion." Our philosophers argue that truth is "subjective." Social theorists argue that truth is an "illusion" that powerful people use to control others.

Whenever I hear Democrat Senator Cory Booker all riled up on television, he's talking about "her truth," "his truth," or even "their truth" - as if a hundred conflicting descriptions of the same event could all be truthful.

During Justice Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings, Democrats called Dr. Christine Blasey Ford to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Ford claimed that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her in 1982 when both were in high school. Kavanaugh vehemently denied the allegation and argued that many parts of Ford's story didn't add up. When Kavanaugh told the senators that the whole thing was a political spectacle being used as a weapon to derail his confirmation, Senator Booker shouted, "Are you calling her some kind of political operative?" Kavanaugh calmly pointed out, "The witnesses who were there [the party at which Blasey Ford claimed the alleged assault occurred] say it didn't happen." Kavanaugh then stated that, although Blasey Ford's allegations were false and harmful, his "family has no ill will toward her."

This is how Booker responded to Justice Kavanaugh's total denial of the allegation against him: "She came forward. She sat here. She told her truth." Her truth. Not the truth. The "truth" that was most likely to help Democrats "Bork" Kavanaugh's nomination - just as then-Senator Joe Biden and fellow Democrats tried to do during Justice Clarence Thomas's confirmation hearings back in '91 when they brought in a witness who claimed that Thomas had made "unwelcome sexual comments" when the two worked together, a charge Thomas similarly and furiously denied.

What was revealing about Booker's made-for-TV moment was his disregard for whether Kavanaugh had actually done anything untoward forty years earlier in his life. He didn't care. The lack of any evidence that could credibly support Blasey Ford's allegation didn't matter. Nor did it matter that Kavanaugh flatly denied the allegation. For Booker, the only "fact" that mattered was that Blasey Ford was willing to testify to something that might sink Kavanaugh's nomination. "Her truth," even if false, made it compelling.

Booker's flippant disregard for the truth was reminiscent of President Bill Clinton's rationalization to a grand jury that he never lied about his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky when he told his staff, "There's nothing going on between us," and Jim Lehrer of PBS, "There is no improper relationship." As everyone who recalls Lewinsky's stained blue dress knows, Clinton's statements were lies. But when Clinton testified before members of a grand jury, this was his truth:

"It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is. If the - if he - if 'is' means is and never has been, that is not - that is one thing. If it means there is none, that was a completely true statement.…Now, if someone had asked me on that day, are you having any kind of sexual relations with Ms. Lewinsky, that is, asked me a question in the present tense, I would have said 'no.' And it would have been completely true."

At that moment, President Clinton proved to Americans that he had no interest in truth. He did not care if he lied. He cared only whether the American people might catch him in a lie. Whether Clinton had "plausible deniability" mattered. Whether he could confuse enough jurors over the meaning of "is" mattered. But the truth? Well, the truth is for rubes and suckers. Clinton's dissembling and Booker's disregard for what actually happened in 1982 are symptoms of the same disease: our dishonest age's abandonment of - and even hostility toward - what is true.

Politicians lie. That's hardly breaking news. What is newsworthy, though, is that our society does not even pretend to pursue truth anymore.

During COVID, we were forced to follow government mandates that made absolutely no sense. Why was it safe for Walmart to remain open when small businesses were forced to close? How could paper masks, arrows painted on the floor, plexiglass walls, or six feet of space save us from microorganisms that don't care about such things? Why should schools be closed when the virus posed the least threat to young people? Why should healthy people who had already acquired natural immunity be forced to take an experimental injection? The public was right to ask so many valid questions. Yet our government-run health organizations responded with juvenile insouciance: We're working at the speed of science! That was the "scientific" equivalent of, "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is."

We're fifteen years into this gender-bender madness during which "experts" (including too many with M.D.s) claim that biological sex is not real and that what we perceive as male or female is nothing more than a self-imposed social construct. People who have refused to play this delusional game have been fired from jobs. People looking for jobs tell obvious lies.

During Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation hearings, Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn asked, "Can you provide a definition for the word 'woman'?" The newest member of the Supreme Court replied, "No, I can't." "You can't?" Blackburn asked incredulously. The jurist who holds one of the most powerful offices in the United States claimed, "Not in this context. I'm not a biologist." This is where we are now. A judge with two Harvard degrees can't tell the American people whether she is actually a woman.

A few days ago, reporter and columnist John Stossel noted that twenty years have passed since former Vice President Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth was released in theaters. Along with a short five-minute video that includes research scientists from the Heartland Institute debunking the pseudoscience behind "climate change" fearmongering, Stossel summed up Gore's lies thusly: "NONE of his scary predictions have come true. Mt. Kilimanjaro still has snow and Glacier National Park still has glaciers." Yet included in that short video is a litany of celebrity "experts" and Democrat politicians all parroting the same lie: We have only twelve years left to live.

The "global warming" liars spent the last twenty years scaring children all over the world by telling them that they would die before being old enough to drive. Now some of those scared kids have children of their own, and the "climate change" con is still going. Prominent Democrats such as Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Richard Blumenthal have even supported legislation that would prohibit funds to federal agencies that "challenge the scientific consensus on climate change." In other words, Democrat politicians wish to outlaw the Scientific Method.

Our society does not doggedly pursue truth. It pursues ideological compliance.

Truth does not require President Joe Biden's Disinformation Governance Board to arbitrate reality for the public. Science is never "settled," as President Barack Obama claimed in his 2014 State of the Union Address. People without PhDs are quite capable of defining a "woman" and deciding for themselves whether to wear paper masks. To pretend otherwise is just another lie.

Here's the real problem, though: When our politicians, scientists, educators, and philosophers spread the lie that there is no objective truth, they transform our existence into gooey meaninglessness. Because if everything is "true," then nothing is true. And if nothing is true, then politicians will decide what is "true" for us.

Pursuing truth does not mean that we ever obtain it. It is the vigilant pursuit of truth, though, that gives us sufficient wisdom to recognize the lies and liars among us. In an age when liars rule, question everything.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 16:20

Latest Fed Beige Book Underscores "K-Shaped" Split Of US Economy

Economic activity increased at a "slight to moderate" pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while one District reported a slight decline and one reported no change, according to the latest Fed Beige Book.

The just released Beige Book - prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based on information collected on or before May 27, 2026, and is the second one to capture the effect of the war on the US economy - found that consumer spending remained mixed across districts and increasingly bifurcated across income groups amid affordability pressures, the latest confirmation of the K-shaped economy.

In keeping with an increasingly fractured economy, the anecdotes highlighted moments of weakness that indicated far more weakness that the headline assessment indicated, to wit:

• higher-income households remained resilient and less sensitive to price increase, while middle-income households were described as “squeezing more life out of every dollar before deciding to spend it,” and low-income consumers showed greater financial strain. Said strain led to reports of increased credit card usage, fewer retail visits, and stronger demand for necessities.
• Auto dealers reported softer new vehicle demand tied to affordability and fuel costs, alongside substitution toward used and hybrid vehicles.
• By contrast, manufacturing activity increased at a modest to strong pace for nine of the Districts and only one noted a slight decline from the previous period.
• Banking conditions were stable across most Districts; however, residential mortgages, consumer, and agricultural loan delinquencies were noted as rising in several of the Districts.
• Agriculture conditions were unchanged or declined for most of the Districts, with cost pressures intensifying from fuel and fertilizer spikes.
• Energy activity increased in two of the markets, but Districts reported that the outlook remains highly uncertain leading producers to hold off on materially expanding activity.
• More broadly, business outlooks for the next six months were reported to have little change in anticipated growth, as elevated uncertainty and signs of weakening consumer spending weighed on sentiment.

In terms of labor markets, the Beige Book said the following: 

• Employment showed little to no change across eleven Districts, while one District experienced modest growth.
• Manufacturing hiring was the strongest sector in several Districts, supported by defense-related activity and rising data center demand.
• Wage growth generally remained modest to moderate and largely in line with inflation. That said, Districts reported more frequent wage adjustments and cost-of-living increases to manage increasing fuel and other household cost pressures.
• Most Districts described a low-hire, low-fire environment, with workers increasingly reluctant to change jobs because of economic uncertainty.
• Hiring remained selective and primarily focused on critical roles or attrition replacement.
• Professional services occupations had mixed demand conditions, partly reflecting shifts in technological and operational changes.

As for prices, they "increased at a moderate to strong pace" overall, with most Districts reporting higher inflation than the previous report.

• Districts noted that energy-related costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East were the primary driver of inflationary pressures, with spillovers into shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizer.
• Non-labor input costs continued to rise faster than selling prices, contributing to broader concerns about margin compression.
• The ability to pass on higher costs remained mixed across sectors, particularly among consumer-facing firms.
• Consumer uncertainty and concerns about fuel prices impacting households were noted by several Districts.
• Several regions highlighted inflation mitigation strategies of firms that ranged from supply-chain optimization, product adjustments, reduced offerings, and temporarily absorbing higher costs to preserve customer demand.

Finally, here are the main highlights by Fed districts

• Boston: Economic activity grew slightly overall. Employment was unchanged, but hiring activity picked up in places, and wages showed slight gains. Cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict remained elevated, although output prices rose only slightly overall. Consumer spending edged higher, despite the strain on household budgets from elevated gas prices. The outlook was mixed.
• New York: Regional economic activity increased slightly after a sustained period of weakness. Manufacturing activity grew strongly, consumer spending increased moderately, and housing activity picked up. Employment edged up, and wage growth eased somewhat but remained modest. Selling price increases rose to the high end of the moderate range, and input prices rose strongly, driven by rising energy costs. Businesses generally expected modest improvement.
• Philadelphia: Business activity declined slightly in the current period, down from a slight increase in the last period. Employment declined somewhat, as manufacturers and nonmanufacturers reported declines in jobs overall. Wage inflation held steady at a modest pace, and firm price inflation was moderate. Expectations for future growth rose at a strong pace for manufacturers but remained below the long-run average for nonmanufacturers.
• Cleveland: Fourth District business activity increased moderately, with similar growth anticipated in the months ahead. Manufacturing demand rose robustly, while retailers faced dampened demand from higher fuel prices. Home sales continued to improve, and data center buildouts drove commercial construction demand. Employment increased modestly. While wage pressures remained moderate, increases in nonlabor costs and selling prices were robust.
• Richmond: The regional economy continued to grow modestly this cycle. Modest growth was reported for consumer spending, financial services, and nonfinancial business services. Manufacturing activity increased moderately amid continued concerns about economic stability. Employment was unchanged, on balance, and wage growth was modest. Price growth remained in a moderate range despite many comments about increased input costs.
• Atlanta: Economic activity grew at a modest pace. Employment levels were flat and wages rose slowly. Prices and costs rose at a moderate pace. While retail sales grew modestly, travel activity slowed. Commercial and residential real estate were flat to down. Transportation and manufacturing activity expanded modestly. Energy demand rose moderately.
• Chicago: Economic activity in the Seventh District increased slightly over the reporting period. Manufacturing demand rose moderately; consumer spending, employment, and construction and real estate activity increased slightly; business spending was flat on balance; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in economic activity. Prices rose rapidly, wages were up modestly, and financial conditions tightened slightly. Farm income expectations for 2026 were unchanged.
• St. Louis: Economic activity has slightly increased. Employment was unchanged and wage growth remained moderate. Prices have risen at a robust pace due to widespread higher nonlabor and energy costs. The outlook has slightly deteriorated, with contacts citing ongoing uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and rising fuel costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
• Minneapolis: The District expanded modestly. Prices increased sharply and input pressures were especially high. Employment grew slightly and wage growth was modest to moderate. Services, manufacturing, and construction activity grew. Oil and gas contacts reported little change in activity or plans despite oil price shocks.
• Kansas City: Economic activity in the Tenth District increased slightly, though consumer-facing firms continued to report softer demand and margin compression. Restaurants noted middle-income households have become increasingly cautious with discretionary spending. Firms also reported rising input costs, with non-energy expenses exerting the greatest upward pressure.
• Dallas: Economic activity in the Eleventh District rose modestly. Growth resumed in the service sector and picked up pace in manufacturing and banking. Retail sales weakened, energy activity ticked up, and the real estate sector was mixed. Employment was largely flat. Outlooks were tepid amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict and sharply higher transportation costs.
• San Francisco: Economic activity was stable. Employment levels were unchanged on net. Prices rose moderately, and wages grew slightly. Retail sales were roughly flat. Manufacturing activity improved somewhat, while conditions in agriculture and residential real estate weakened slightly. Activity in consumer and business services, commercial real estate, and finance was steady.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 14:55

Dispersion And Correlation Are Screaming Overbought, Downside Hedging Is Cheap

Submitted by SpotGamma

CBOE’s Dispersion Index (DSPX) is at levels only seen during Covid and the April ’25 tariff crash, while Correlation (COR1M) is near all-time lows. This divergence signals extreme positioning risk driven by the AI stock chase, and makes SPY downside hedges historically cheap.

Traders have been chasing AI related names in such heavy-handed fashion that it has now created positioning risk for the stock market.

Encapsulating this view are two popular CBOE options indexes: Dispersion (DSPX) and Correlation (COR1M).

What Are Dispersion DSPX & Correlation COR1M?

DSPX compares the options prices (IV) of the top US stocks vs SPX IV, and measures how different they are from each other. High dispersion means traders are assigning vastly different options prices to individual names. Today, we have traders frothing to chase upside in MU, SNDK, and the like, while scorning other sectors.

COR1M measures the direction of options prices for top US stocks vs the SPX. During periods of calm we generally see traders bit up call options, and sell SPX options, which creates low correlation. Conversely, when there is a lot of fear in the stock market, correlation spikes as traders sell all stocks and buy SPX options – typically puts.

Currently DSPX (blue) is at highs only seen since the Covid crash after just passing highs from the April 2025 Tariff drama. Meanwhile, COR1M (red), is nearing it’s lowest reading ever.

This gives us a massive never-before-seen divergence (black arrows) between spiking options prices (high dispersion) and only certain stocks surging higher (low correlation).

The previous highs in DSPX came during massive risk-off periods! Why? Because in both 2020 and in 2025 traders were pricing in vastly different risk due to traumatic events: in Covid cruise lines were crashing massively, whereas healthcare stocks were bid. During April ’25 it was about parsing tariff winners and losers. These heavy “winners and losers” environment created a lot of dispersion in options prices.

Today the massive dispersion is driven by the chase in AI stocks, which is now at extremes.

Notice, too, how correlation (red) spiked during those previous events as traders sold stocks sharply lower. In other words: all stocks crashed in Covid/Tariffs (i.e. high correlation), just some stocks crashed harder (high dispersion).

However correlation is at lows not seen since July of 2024, with July ’24 being the all-time low. This comes as traders are very complacent about downside risk – despite the Iran war situation.

How Do Options Prices Differ Across Stocks?

An under the hood view of this dynamic is shown with SpotGamma’s Compass tool. If a stocks call options are much more expensive than their calls, the plot lands toward the right of this chart (X axis). As traders anticipate more stock movement (IV), the plot lands higher on this chart (Y axis).

Compare SMH (yellow arrow), which is at the top right of this chart. Traders are betting that this stock is essentially going to contine crashing higher.

The tech-heavy QQQ is also in a showing a heavily bullish positioning, which traders betting that upside hot streaks continue. The big single stock constituents have effectively “infected” the Nasdaq Index with uber-bullish views.

The SPY, however, has been shifting away from call leaning positions, to put positions. However, the overall IV remains low, showing traders have simply been backing off from call positions vs strongly betting on downside.

SPX QQQ SMH Skew

The extreme readings here suggest options positioning could drive a stock volatility event, as extreme call positioning unwinds. 

This difference (or dispersion) in options prices here creates many different trade setups, with different risk-rewards for traders:

SPY put options may be relatively much cheaper that puts in SMH, or QQQ. We view these as low risk, with potentially high reward.

More dramatically, selling calls in SMH or QQQ could offer fantastic rewards, but also bring major risks if the hot upside continues.

Parsing what type of downside position that may be right for you involves mapping out:

1. How likely are the odds of a market correction
2. The potential risk vs reward of various downside trade structures

Knowing these two elements sets up how you might select and position for a potential downside move.

Join our upcoming event on June 9th: Trade Like the House, where we will be combing positional analysis with probabilities, to gain structural edge with your trading.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 14:20

New York Democrats Move To Redraw Congressional Maps

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

New York Democrats are moving to give state lawmakers the power to redraw the state’s congressional maps, entering the national fight over control of the U.S. House.

The proposed constitutional amendment would allow lawmakers to draw district lines themselves and redraw them mid-decade. It had not been formally filed as of Tuesday morning, but The Epoch Times has reviewed a memo describing the proposed changes.

The proposed amendment would change New York’s redistricting system in several ways.

According to the memo, state lawmakers could draw the maps themselves if the state’s independent redistricting commission fails to agree on a plan, and could approve maps with a simple majority vote rather than the larger vote the constitution now requires.

Court fights over the maps would go back to the Legislature, rather than to a court-appointed expert known as a special master.

And lawmakers could redraw congressional districts between the once-a-decade census counts.

The memo also lists new rules for how maps must be drawn. They would still bar maps that weaken the voting power of racial or language minorities and would still require districts to be equal in population and connected. The list does not include the constitution’s current ban on drawing districts “for the purpose of favoring or disfavoring incumbents or other particular candidates or political parties.”

New York voters created the independent commission in 2014, approving a constitutional amendment meant to take map-drawing out of politicians’ hands. The system encountered issues the last time it was used.

After the commission deadlocked, Democrats in the Legislature drew their own maps. In 2022, the state’s highest court threw them out, ruling they were an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander, and a special master drew the lines instead.

Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins defended the plan in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times on Tuesday, June 2.

“New York cannot afford to stand still,” she said. “We cannot ignore the reality that Republicans have repeatedly sought to undermine democracy through various attempts to gain political advantage. At a time when democracy is under attack across the country, we have a responsibility to protect all voters including the minority communities and ensure that every New Yorker continues to have a voice. This legislation remains firmly rooted in the democratic process, giving New Yorkers themselves the final say at the ballot box.”

New York Sen. Andrea Stewart-Cousins speaks during an event at the Rockefeller Foundation on in New York City on Feb. 20, 2018. Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images

She added, “We believe these changes will ensure that our state has the tools necessary to preserve a level playing field in the face of Republican-led efforts to tilt maps and weaken democratic participation—without compromising the integrity of the Independent Redistricting Commission.”

The push follows a wave of mid-decade redistricting that began in Texas last summer, when Republicans moved to redraw their congressional map at President Donald Trump’s urging. California Democrats responded with their own redraw. Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and Tennessee have since taken up mid-decade efforts, with other states discussing the matter as well.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has made the state’s congressional lines part of his strategy to win back the House. He tapped Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) to coordinate with state officials, and Morelle met with Gov. Kathy Hochul and legislative leaders in Albany on May 5.

The change would not happen quickly. A constitutional amendment in New York must pass the Legislature twice, this year and again after the 2026 elections, and then win approval from voters. The earliest it could affect any maps is the 2028 election. The legislative session ends June 4.

Republicans oppose the plan. In a May 31 statement to The Epoch Times, Assembly Minority Leader Ed Ra, a Republican, called any plan to redraw maps mid-decade or change the commission “a shameful attempt to nullify the will of the voters.”

At a June 1 news conference as those reports continued to surface, Ra said Democrats started the fight in New York well ahead of Texas’s move last year.

“It was started by New York State Democrats,” he said, referring to previous maps drawn by New York Democrats. He noted that voters rejected a similar measure in 2021.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) speaks to reporters at Rockland Community at Rockland Community College in Suffern, N.Y., on May 22, 2026. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said New York Democrats drew their own maps in 2022 to protect their House majority.

“They just went and drew their own maps and totally disregarded the Constitution,” he said at the press conference.

Assemblyman Matt Slater, the top Republican on the Assembly Elections Committee, said the current system is functioning correctly.

“The system is working,” he said on June 1, adding New York now has “some of the most competitive congressional districts anywhere in the country.”

Sen. Mark Walczyk, the top Republican on the Senate Elections Committee, said voters were clear in 2014.

“We want an independent redistricting commission,” he said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 14:05

Iran Issues 4-Stage Proposal For Deal With US, After Most Intense Overnight Clashes Since April Summary

• State media issues four-stage proposal for deal with US, says indirect talks are 'ongoing'.
• GCC blasts 'cowardly attacks' after Kuwait International Airport rocked by Iranian missiles: one dead, 63 injured.
• Overnight saw US-Iran exchange fire in Strait of Hormuz - as US attacked Qeshm Island - and Iran unleashed more projectiles on Gulf states. Most intense fighting since April.
• IRGC via state media: Tehran has frozen all back-channel communication with Washington over Israeli operations in Lebanon, calls Trump narrative a fantasy.
• Trump says Iran has agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon, while saying talks are still ongoing. Tells NYP he believes the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz will "resolve itself fairly quickly."

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 24% · No 77%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Claims Iran 'Close' To Signing Paper 'In Theory'

The two sides don't actually appear to be any closer to a deal or so much as a MOU to get back to the table, but President Trump is still signaling optimism:

Trump on Iran:

In theory, they are pretty close to signing the paper.

On what you saw for the last few nights: it takes two to tango. pic.twitter.com/j6z0PjP8ve

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 3, 2026

Fars: Outline of Iran's 4-Stage Proposal For Deal With US

Fars Politics on Telegram has issued the following outline on Wednesday (machine translated). Also, somewhat contradicting reports from other state media outlets, Fars has stated that indirect talks with Washington are still ongoing, but that no final decision on a MOU has yet been made.

Phase 1: Ending war and halting military actions.

Phase 2: Tangible measures, including: The issue of the strait and the mechanisms related to it,
Lifting the blockade, Removing restrictions and oil sanctions, Releasing part of Iran's frozen assets and blocked financial resources.

Phase 3: Dedicated to discussions on sanctions and the nuclear file.

Phase 4: Involves establishing a supervisory committee to oversee implementation of the understanding and monitor the commitments of all parties.

Saeed Ajorlou, a member of the media team of the negotiating delegation provided the following commentary via Fars:

Phase One is ending the war and achieving a complete halt to military actions. This must encompass all parties and all fronts—whether Iran and the United States or the so-called Resistance Axis.

After Phase One is stabilized, the focus shifts to practical and tangible measures. In this phase, four key issues must be addressed:

• The issue of the strait and the mechanisms related to it
• Lifting the blockade,
• Removing restrictions and oil sanctions,
• Releasing part of Iran's frozen assets and blocked financial resources.

Phase Three is dedicated to discussions on sanctions and the nuclear file. At this stage, after concrete and verifiable measures have been implemented, negotiations will begin on broader sanctions relief as well as issues related to the nuclear program.

Phase Four involves establishing a supervisory committee to oversee implementation of the understanding and monitor the commitments of all parties. The members of this committee have not yet been finalized, but Iran is seeking to include friendly and aligned countries in the mechanism so that the implementation process has sufficient backing and support.

By the looks of the above proposal, the warring sides seem very much still at square one.

State Media Still Insists Talks Are Frozen, Amid Most Intense Fighting Since April

State media statement on Wednesday:

IRGC-linked Tasnim claims Tehran has frozen all back-channel communication with Washington over Israeli operations in Lebanon, directly contradicting Trump's assertion that messages are arriving daily from Iran. Tasnim: "Trump's claim that Iran is confirming the issue is completely different from reality."

Iran's Foreign Minister is meanwhile articulating that Iran will lay down some new red lines via military strikes, which he has dubbed 'self-defense' in nature...

Our Armed Forces are conducting self-defense strikes on sites the U.S. is permitted to use to attack civilian shipping and violate the ceasefire.

Any hostile act will be met with an immediate, decisive response. What sanctions and war failed to achieve won't be won with more war pic.twitter.com/CwjULJ6PeI

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 3, 2026

President Donald Trump is still trying to present some bright spots, telling NY Post he believes the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will "resolve itself fairly quickly" and went so far to say he expects to meet with Iran's supreme leader "at some point."

Major Attack on Kuwait International Airport: One Dead, 63 Injured

Kuwait International Airport has come under Iranian missile and drone attack on Wednesday, in a significant strike that killed one person and left 63 people injured - according to the country's health ministry, with several of the victims being seriously wounded.

A passenger terminal was directly struck, damaging facilities including diplomatic missions at the airport, Kuwaiti authorities have said. Area hospitals conducted seven major emergency surgeries following the incident, underscoring that it was a mass casualty event.

via The Telegraph

Kuwaiti defense ministry spokesperson Brig Gen Saud Abdulaziz Al-Atwan described the attack as "criminal Iranian aggression which resulted in significant material damage to the building and injuries." It confirmed engaging 13 missiles and 17 drones total which were fired from Iran. 

Civil aviation authorities immediately suspended traffic and transferred arriving flights to separate unaffected airports after "terminal one came under Iranian attacks causing casualties and damage." The cross-border airport attack came after violent exchanges of fire between the US and Iran, which at first looked like limited one-off incidents, but then became an extended tit-for-tat.

The Overnight Catalyst: US-Iran Exchange Fire in Hormuz

Overnight, the US military deployed a Hellfire missile to disable a tanker attempting to bypass the American blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the intercept, American forces engaged in a wider kinetic exchange, stating they repelled subsequent Iranian reprisal strikes across the region and launched retaliatory attacks against military sites on Iran’s Qeshm Island.

In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed it launched a missile and drone barrage targeting the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain - an assertion that Central Command (CENTCOM) has explicitly denied. The IRGC had also sent several missiles on two US bases in Kuwait, which were said to have been intercepted.

Serous damage and chaos at Kuwait International Airport:

⚡️#UPDATE Iran bombs Kuwait International Airport pic.twitter.com/beTFw6Lyuv

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 3, 2026

GCC Blasts 'Cowardly Attacks'

The Gulf Cooperation Council has in response slammed Iran for their "ongoing aggression" against member states Bahrain and Kuwait, denouncing the "cowardly attacks on civilian objects" which mark a "dangerous and unprecedented escalation."

But Tehran is not backing down and is instead issuing further hardline warnings and threats, per Al Jazeera citing state media:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says retaliatory strikes "should serve as a lesson" for the United States after it fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain.

While Iran's foreign ministry is warning that the overnight US assault on Qeshm Island continues a severe breach of the ceasefire, President Trump is saying that "conversations between us have been going on continuously" - in reference to the Iranians.

Kuwait's civil aviation authority confirmed Iranian drones and missiles hit the T1 terminal at Kuwait International Airport. Several people were injured and the building sustained severe damage. Commercial flights have been halted. https://t.co/fbFhjSofIY pic.twitter.com/zOz83Ba6cy

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 3, 2026

Overnight Headlines

More latest developments via Newsquawk...

• Explosions were heard near Qeshm Island in Iran on Wednesday morning.
• Kuwait's Army announced its air defences were intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks, while reports noted that two US bases were targeted in Kuwait, with explosions in the Ali al-Salem and Arifjan bases where US soldiers are stationed. Furthermore, air raid sirens sounded in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with explosions also reported in Saudi Arabia, while explosions were heard in Qamishli, Syria, and earlier reports noted multiple explosions in the centre of Iraqi Kurdistan with the headquarters of anti-Iranian separatist groups targeted.
• IRGC said the US attacked Qeshm Island, and in response, Iran carried out precise and intensive missile strikes on US bases in Kuwait, while it warned further US aggression will be met with a seismic, crushing and decisive response.
• IRGC said the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet in Bahrain was attacked by missiles and drones from the IRGC Aerospace Force, while it targeted a US-affiliated vessel named Panaya with missiles and clarified the recent attack was in retaliation for the US targeting an IRGC communications tower in the south of Qeshm Island.
• US CENTCOM said Iran launched several ballistic missiles towards neighbours and that forces successfully defeated multiple Iranian missiles, while US forces had conducted strikes on Qeshm Island in response to attempted attacks by Iran. CENTCOM stated that forces shot down three one-way attack drones launched by Iran toward civilian mariners that were rightfully transiting regional waters, and US forces also conducted self-defence strikes on an Iranian military ground control station on Qeshm Island. Furthermore, it denied IRGC claims that Iran struck the 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain and a US airbase in the region, and stated that all Iranian attacks on US forces failed.
• US CENTCOM says forces disabled a Botswana-flagged unladen oil tanker that was attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on the Arabian Gulf on June 2nd. Says: US aircraft disabled the vessel by firing a Hellfire missile into the ship’s engine room, preventing the tanker from reaching Iran.
• US President Trump is pushing Iran to make firmer nuclear commitments and wants nuclear concessions in writing from Iran, according to ABC News.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said that Iran has mined large segments of the Hormuz Strait. Rubio stated that nuclear negotiations with Iran were highly complicated and technical, which would therefore take time, while he added that the war with Iran had made interactions with Tehran more complicated, but also commented that the "war in Iran is over".
• Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the US attacks on Iranian tanker and Qeshm island. The Foreign Ministry "notes the direct and clear responsibility of the rulers of Kuwait and Bahrain for last night’s aggressive acts."
• Hardline Iranian lawmaker called for stronger military response to US strikes, Al Jazeera reported.
• Kuwait’s General Civil Aviation Authority said an emergency plan at Kuwait International Airport was activated after Terminal 1 was targeted by Iranian drones and missiles.
• Hezbollah attacked an Israeli command post in southern Lebanon with a drone strike, which wounded eight Israeli soldiers, according to SNN.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 13:50

SDNY Prosecutors Looking At Valuation Discrepancies In Private Credit Market

In a move that is long overdue, Jay Clayton, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, said his office is looking at possible valuation discrepancies in the private credit marketplace. 

Wall Street’s top prosecutor addressed the issue Wednesday while speaking at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in New York.

Clayton said the difference between the price at which assets are marked on one balance sheet versus others was at the heart of blowups at First Brands Group, Tricolor Holdings and 777 Partners.

“Where you look is when you have a market where there’s a bunch of participants and a large portion of them have it marked at say 75 and one or two have it marked at 95,” Clayton said.

“That’s a place where you say, okay, I need to ask some questions about the folks who are marking it at 95, particularly if they’re making fees off it,” he added. “To be clear, I’m asking my people to look at that question across the marketplace.”

An example of how furiously marks can move - lower - in private credit, back in March, we reported that Blackrock slashed the value of one of its private loans from par to 0 in just months, Infinite Commerce Holdings, sparking a selloff in the shares as the market was stunned by how quickly a loan from the world's most iconic asset manager can go from par to 0 in just days.

At the same time, however, Clayton warned against “pearl-clutching” about private credit and suggested that it had been a boon to the US economy. He said he didn’t currently see a “transmission mechanism” by which issues in the private credit sector could affect the broader economy.

Clayton had previously expressed concern about how Wall Street firms value private assets. The Justice Department’s Manhattan outpost in recent months has been seeking information about BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. - most likely in relation to the abovementioned loan - Bloomberg reported in May.

Clayton, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission during Trump’s first presidency, took over the Manhattan US attorney’s office after his re-election. In between those roles, he was chairman of private-markets powerhouse Apollo, which has recently been touting its push to price some $830 billion of credit assets daily in a bid to boost transparency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 13:25

'The Pricking Is Coming': Dalio Warns AI Bubble Will Burst Like Dot-Com, But Tech Will Endure

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio appeared on Bloomberg TV today and delivered a measured yet cautionary assessment of the artificial intelligence investment frenzy. He highlighted classic bubble dynamics - sky-high valuations, rampant speculation, and "paper wealth" vastly outpacing actual cash flows - while drawing direct parallels to the 2000 dot-com era.

"All great technology changes produce bubbles," Dalio said in the Wednesday Bloomberg Television interview. "Nobody can get it exactly right. You have to either spend a ton of money to capture your market share and don't worry about whether it's too much or not, or you don't spend enough money and you lose your market share."

Dalio explained the mechanism of how such a bubble eventually bursts: "The pricking is the converting of wealth into money." He noted that today's AI-driven market is "following that kind of path, even though it is a wonderful technology."

⚠️ Ray Dalio on timing the top of an AI bubble:

The pricking is converting wealth into money because I need money, so I have to sell some of the wealth in order to get the money. pic.twitter.com/lWtT8eOHou

— LuxAlgo (@LuxAlgo) June 3, 2026

AI Will Survive - Many Companies May Not

Dalio also hit on the law of the jungle; a lot of companies simply disappear during massive technological upheaval - as competition sorts out the winners and losers - which is separate of the technology's lasting impact. In short, the underlying innovations in AI will continue transforming economies and societies, much as the internet did after its own bubble deflated.

Meanwhile, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just touted "insane" returns for investors willing to bet on the AI boom - with chipmakers notably having been the hottest stocks on Wall Street of late - driven by demand for high-bandwidth chips used in AI data centers and taking the market to record heights.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 12:45

Rabo On Regime-Change At The Fed: What Warsh Can (And Should) Do First

The honeymoon period for Warsh is over.

The FOMC could have given him the professional courtesy of allowing him to settle in, but in recent weeks several Committee participants have staked out their position.

They want to drop the FOMC’s easing bias and instead take a more neutral stance.

This means it will be more difficult for Warsh to convince the Committee of cutting rates anytime soon.

Against that internal pressure, WSJ's Fed whisperer, Nick Timaraos reports that Warsh has tapped two outside associates to advise him while he settles into the job, one of whom previously helped write a conservative blueprint that recommended a radical restructuring of the central bank.

The manifesto drew attention for floating ideas well outside the mainstream of monetary policy, including a menu of overhauls whose top-ranked option was “free banking” - effectively abolishing the Fed in favor of privately issued, commodity-backed currency.

The report included a disclaimer that said the ideas shouldn’t be attributed to any individual and instead synthesized the views of a panel of contributors.

Winfree later distanced himself from the chapter’s more provocative proposals.

“I do think the Fed should be reformed,” he told Roll Call in 2024. “But I would not subscribe to the idea of nuking the Fed.”

As Rabobank details below, the shifting dynamics in the FOMC cannot be seen separately from the developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

As the conflict drags on, energy prices will remain elevated and high inflation sustained for longer.

We flagged repeatedly that given the developments in the Middle East, we were more likely to drop a rate cut from our forecast for 2026 than add one.

Because of the shifting FOMC dynamics and their changed house view of the conflict and its resolution, Rabobank is now adjusting our Fed view.

Shifting FOMC dynamics

As we noted last week, in just a few months, the situation into which Warsh is parachuted has changed dramatically.

At the start of the year, we still expected that the new Chair could convince the FOMC of making three rate cuts before the year had ended.

After the outbreak of the war with Iran, we dropped one rate cut from our forecast.

However, the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted today and gasoline prices and inflation have continued to rise.

Therefore, we repeatedly flagged that because of the developments in the Middle East, we were more likely to drop a rate cut from our forecast for 2026 than add one. Meanwhile, nonfarm payroll growth has been solid and the unemployment rate has remained at 4.3%.

As a result, the center of the FOMC has moved away from rate cuts.

What’s more, in recent weeks several Committee participants staked out their position.

Governor Waller’s conversion was the most notable. Last summer, he positioned himself as a Trump-loyalist, leading the charge to cut rates, because of increased downside risks to the labor market. After losing out to Warsh in the race for Fed Chair, he is shapeshifting again. Coincidentally, Waller jumped ship on the same day that Warsh was sworn in, making Warsh’s mission even more difficult than it already was.

Moreover, by staying on as Governor, Powell is effectively blocking the addition of another Trump-loyal Governor.

To the new Fed Chair it may feel as if he has been dropped behind enemy lines.

More inflation and less room to cut

Not completely unrelated, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has dragged on.

RaboResearch has changed its view of the conflict and its resolution and now thinks that the Strait will be closed until September.

This has led to an upward adjustment of our energy price forecasts, which also means that we will adjust our forecasts for US inflation. More details will be provided in our Monthly Outlook next week. With our outlook for inflation higher and more persistent and the FOMC taking defensive positions against the new Chair, we now change our Fed view as well.

Instead of a rate cut in September 2026 and another in December 2026, we now forecast the first cut in October 2026 and the second in January 2027.

So we shift our expected rate cuts one meeting into the future. This means that we now forecast only one rate cut in 2026, instead of two.

At the same time, we add a rate cut to 2027 (previously none). The reason why we still expect the Fed to cut before the end of the year is that the conclusion by many Fed speakers that the labor market has stabilized may be a bit premature. After all, we have only just seen the first back-to-back positive nonfarm payroll growth figures in almost a year. What’s more, the fallout from the war with Iran could have negative repercussions on the real economy, even in the US. It is still a long way to the end of the year and we could easily see a return of downside risk to the labor market before we are there. In this case, the FOMC may reintroduce its easing bias.

For example, in his May 22 speech, Governor Waller said: “With regard to future rate cuts, I am going to need to see improvement on inflation or a significant deterioration in the labor market before I would consider reducing the policy rate.”

Note that he uses “or” instead of “and”, which implies that even without improvement on inflation, the labor market could be a reason to cut.

The Fed may be talking tough now, but they have a history of getting wobbly knees when the economy starts to falter. The reason why we do not shift the previous September cut beyond October, is the midterm election.

If downside risks to the labor market rise in Q3, Warsh will have a strong incentive to push for a rate cut prior to Election Day.

Therefore, the October meeting is his last chance to help boost the chances of the Republican candidates for the Senate and the House of Representatives by cutting rates and giving the stock market a lift.

Conclusion

Instead of delivering the rate cut that President Trump would have preferred, Warsh will likely have to remove the easing bias from the Fed statement at his first FOMC meeting as chair.

A sensible approach for Warsh would be to refrain from pushing for rate cuts in June and July, but instead introduce the analytical framework that will allow the FOMC to resume its prewar path of rate cutting later in the year.

If the current surge in inflation is purely a supply shock, the Fed should be able to look through the high headline inflation figures and focus on core inflation and inflation expectations.

If core inflation picks up substantially and inflation expectations become unanchored, then inflation pressures could become persistent.

However, if we see only a modest rise in core inflation and long-run inflation expectations remain stable, the Fed could resume its pre-war interest rate path, which was sloping downward.

Our forecast is now that the Fed will cut in October 2026 and January 2027, instead of September 2026 and December 2026.

So we move the rate cuts one meeting into the future.

This will still get the federal funds rate to what the median FOMC participant sees as the neutral level, only a little later.

The direction of Warsh’s mission is clear, but he may get there later than the administration might like.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 11:55

Goldman Sits Down With Anduril As 'War Unicorns' Reshape Defense Tech

Palmer Luckey’s defense startup, Anduril, is emerging as the Department of War’s answer to the urgent need for affordable, scalable advanced weaponry produced at lightning speed, rather than through the slow, over-budget procurement cycles that have long defined the legacy primes.

The twin conflicts raging across Eurasia and the Middle East, from the Russia-Ukraine war to the U.S.-Iran war, have forever altered modern warfare, with drones, seaborne drones, ground robots, and AI kill chains now reshaping the battlefield.

The quick rise of Anduril, something we call a “war unicorn,” has attracted the attention of Goldman analysts, who recently felt compelled to sit down with Anduril executives to better understand the story and how it will play a major role in the next phase of rebuilding America’s defense-industrial base.

Analyst Noah Poponak recently hosted Anduril co-founder and CEO Brian Schimpf and head of investor relations Allison Lazarus in New York to gain more color on how the defense company is solving the defense industry’s biggest bottleneck, speed.

Oculus headset creator Palmer Luckey, who founded the company in 2017, has focused on building lower-cost, scalable systems in categories such as drones, counter-UAS, and missiles, positioning itself against a legacy defense-industrial base that includes Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and many others.

Here are Poponak's top takeaways after speaking with Anduril executives:

What is Anduril solving for? The U.S. defense industrial base is currently geared towards producing low numbers of expensive, bespoke assets. While these assets are very capable - they have extremely high specifications and performance requirements - they have historically been used in limited quantities, often utilize sole-source specialty materials and components, and have complex manufacturing processes, all of which makes scaled production ramp-ups difficult. More recently, the rate at which these assets have been used in modern conflicts relative to their respective manufacturing footprints and stockpile levels has proven to be high. This has prompted the United States to 1) increase the production rate of these assets, but 2) develop and procure lower-cost alternatives that can be mass-manufactured. This is where Anduril steps in. The company designs its products with affordability and scalability in mind ("affordable mass").

In the long-run, Anduril believes its capability set can be a differentiator, but right now it is prioritizing scalability and speed by focusing on these principles:

1. Vertical integration. When it makes sense to do so, Anduril brings component and module production in-house, decreasing its reliance on external vendors to meet production targets. When the company does rely on external vendors (e.g. Anduril owns the design for a component, but does not produce it in-house), it seeks strategic relationships with commoditized component manufacturers, aiming to avoid the supply chain risks sometimes posed by sole-source suppliers (although this is hard to avoid with modules). Importantly, Anduril is not looking to completely vertically integrate. When the industry has many suppliers of a common item (such as small turbo jets or bolts), Anduril will source that item externally.

2. Component and process commonality across product lines. By utilizing the same components (bearings, bushings, washers, electronic components, materials) across product lines, Anduril simplifies its supply chain and can flex a common inventory pool across products. Having similar production processes allows for an easier manufacturing switch between products.

3. Product simplification and production automation. By designing simpler products, Anduril creates more opportunities for automation, lowers cost, and enables higher production output. A simpler product often times comes with a lower capability set, but there are increasing use cases for these products, as best-in-class assets are not always needed to achieve mission outcomes.

4. Flexible manufacturing facilities. By designing production lines and facilities to rapidly switch between different products, Anduril is able to more quickly meet demand when and where it occurs. This also lowers the risk of idle, dedicated manufacturing space for products not currently in a procurement cycle.

Internal investments create product adoption and margin upside. In our meeting, Anduril stated a near 25% total company operating margin over time is possible. The company derives a high percentage of its revenue from fixed-price work (we estimate that to be between 70-80%), and invests substantially in internal R&D, which, per the company, could allow it to command much higher margins than traditional defense primes over time. Investing ahead of customer demand does entail risk, but the company believes it is advantageous to compete with actual in-production assets versus hypothetical assets or designs when industry RFPs are released, combined with an ability to deliver to schedule. The DoW is increasingly requesting that industry participants invest their own capital into R&D and production, as it fosters faster product iteration and more competition.

DoW acquisition reform - showing early signs of progress. While acquisition processes at the DoW are still complex and can be difficult to navigate, Anduril stated it is seeing improvement at the customer, noting an increased willingness to try new testing, prototyping, and procurement strategies across the services. At an industry-wide level, the DoW is implementing acquisition reform (see our notes here and here), negotiating multi-year framework agreements, prioritizing fixed-price contract terms, investing in companies via equity stakes, and establishing more open test and procurement strategies like the Drone Dominance Program.

What products in the portfolio are seeing momentum?

• Anduril's Fury (YFQ-44A) continues to progress through the USAF's Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program as it performs aerial testing and enters the production phase at Arsenal-1.
• The company's Dive-XL product is being manufactured for the Royal Australian Navy's Ghost Shark XL-AUV program.
• Anduril recently entered into a framework agreement to produce thousands of Barracuda low-cost cruise missiles in the coming years.
• Anduril's CUAS products continue to gain momentum domestically (USMC) and internationally (to protect critical infrastructure abroad).
• Lattice is critically integrated into Anduril's hardware, but is also used for enterprise-wide / system-wide applications in the military (U.S. Army, U.S. Space Surveillance Network).

Anduril portfolio

Anduril notable awards and programs of record

Anduril fundraising rounds and implied valuation

Anduril M&A timeline

Professional subscribers can read the full Anduril note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 11:35

 

 

I keep hearing comments and concerns about these markets in the media. Since my wife is tired of me yelling at the television (“No! That’s wrong!”) you are the lucky recipients of my ire.

Here are five things I have been thinking about regarding markets, the economy, and investments – from the most bullish to the least – that are too easily misunderstood:

1) Profits: If I can only look at one data point to gauge the overall direction of equity markets, it would be profits. And, corporate profits have been on a tear the past few years.

To be sure, the hyperscalers’ artificial intelligence buildout and massive CapEx are significant factors. But we have also seen good profits in sectors ranging from Communication Services, Health Care, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials — all are having strong quarters; (unsurprisingly, Consumer Discretionary is the least consistent).

And these are not just one-time blips; we have enjoyed the rare combination of record profits and record profit growth rates. If you want to understand what has been driving equity prices, look no further than this powerful one-two punch.

At the same time, high(ish) valuations have become a little cheaper, as multiples have compressed. This is very powerful…

2) All-Time Highs: The data is unequivocal. Investing at all-time highs yields better returns than at all other dates. I have been saying this for years, so rather than repeat myself, I will let Sam Ro give you the details:

“Just because major market drawdowns are often preceded by record highs doesn’t mean all-time highs are often followed by major market drawdowns. Hopefully, this is obvious. The stock market would not have trended higher for decades if this were not true. Eyeball any long-term chart of the stock market, and you’ll see all-time highs followed by new all-time highs.”

There were over 493 new all-time highs from 1983 to 2000. Except for the very last one, every single one of these was bullish.

If you want to make a bet against 500 to 1 odds, well, that’s your call. I am on the other side of that trade.

3) Sentiment: Another intriguing issue that keeps coming up is record lows in U Mich Sentiment. Many find this deeply concerning.

But here is the thing: Your individual sentiment is based on what you experience personally – in BeFi terms, the “Availability Heuristic” of what is in your personal economy. But that is not what drives markets. We discussed this in terms of the pandemic and, more recently, how we can have all-time highs in equities with all-time lows in consumer sentiment.

Most of the time, Sentiment measures do not provide a very clear signal. The contrarian in me looks at record low sentiment measures as a potentially bullish indicator…

4) K-Shaped Economy: Here is the disappointing, grim reality: Throughout most of human history, it has been a very “Winner takes all (or most)” kind of economic system.

The challenge is in having the top 10% of the economic strata driving half of the economic activity. This may not be a sustainable situation — economically or politically.

There were hopes that the industrial revolution, unionization, and the general rise in entrepreneurship might push back against that reality. But it is looking more and more like the Roaring 1920s, the 1980s bull market, the post-GFC bailouts were the norm, not the exception.

I grew up in the post-war era, and I took it for granted that it was the norm. I am starting to suspect exactly how aberrational that period was. It is looking more and more like the entire post-war period – the rise of the middle class, the build-out in the USA of suburbia, interstate highways, the electronics industry, semiconductors, manufacturing, civilian aviation, etc. – was a historical aberration.

I hope this is incorrect, but fear it is not…

Iran War / Oil / Inflation: Venezuela was fast and easy; Cuba is likely a bit more difficult. But Iran has its own strategic, tactical, and military assets; it is its own player in the Middle East. Oh, and they have been supplying drones to Russia (!) for its war against Ukraine.

I have no idea how the Dunning-Kruger War will ultimately play out in terms of energy prices and/or inflation, but it appears not to have been well thought out in advance.

The good news is regional wars generally don’t impact stock prices much; the bad news is this is the one with the potential for causing exactly that kind of mischief…

~~~

Generally speaking, I am bullish on US equities and even more bullish on overseas bourses. There are signs of froth and foolishness, none of which rise to systematic problems.

Am I happy about the excesses surrounding the SpaceX IPO? Absolutely not. The index gaming from Nasdaq and S&P is deeply problematic and disappointing. But it does not read to me as a market killer.

If you have learned anything from this market over the past 15 years, it is that it deserves the benefit of the doubt. The economy has been cooling, but not outright decelerating. Housing is a mess, still working off the excesses of the GFC. College grads seem to be having a hard time finding jobs.

It’s not perfect out there. But until we see deeper signs of deterioration and further economic weakening, I remain constructive…

 

 

 

Previously:
All Time Highs (SP500) versus All Time Lows (Consumer Sentiment) (April 24, 2026)

Maybe Mr. Market Is Rational After All… (August 7, 2020)

The K-Shaped Recovery (September 4, 2020)

No, Market Highs Are Not a Bad Sign (March 5, 2014)

The Bifurcated Recovery in Jobs (November 12, 2013)

 

The post 5 Things I Am Thinking About appeared first on The Big Picture.

Oil Prices Hold Gains As Gasoline Stocks Hit 12 Year Lows, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom

Brent crude prices are rising back toward $100 per barrel this morning following the latest flare-up in fighting to threaten the U.S.-Iran ceasefire

Prices rose after the U.S. military said Iran fired missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain, which failed to hit their targets.

The United States said it then struck an Iranian military ground control station on an island in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

API:

• Crude: -6.8MM

• Cushing: -279k

• Gasoline: +3.5M

• Distillate: -214k

DOE:

• Crude: -7.97mm - biggest draw since Feb

• Cushing: -583k

• Gasoline: +3.36mm - biggest build since Jan

• Distillate: +1.50mm

US crude stocks fell for the sixth straight week with Cushing inventories testing tank bottoms once again. The week saw an unexpected jump in product inventories with Gasoline's biggest build since January...

Source: Bloomberg

Today's rise in gasoline stocks lifts them off their lowest level for this time of year since 2014...

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing 'tank bottoms' are in sight once again...

Source: Bloomberg

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw another huge drawdown this week (down 58mm barrels since the start of the war)...

Source: Bloomberg

Rig counts are on the rise as US crude production drifts back towards record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude and product exports jumped back towards record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $95 ahead of the official data...

Finally, economists at Macquarie wrote in a note this morning that crude oil’s muted reaction to the closure of Hormuz has mainly been a function of the oversupply seen before the war, .

The analysts suggested that “the market will be ok for another month or two, especially given commercial crude stocks have been cushioned by SPR/product draws."

However, if the Strait remains closed at the end of the northern summer (Labor Day is Sept. 7), physical availability will tighten materially.

“If the Strait reopens soon, we expect prices to fall sharply. However, with stocks drawing rapidly, if the Strait remains closed, at some point prices will need to move much higher.”

'Tank Bottoms' are in sight around the world.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 10:39