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Airline Stocks Soar On Iran Ceasefire As IATA Sees "Positive" Tailwinds, But Warns Jet Fuel Crisis Will Persist

Airline stocks are flying high in premarket trading in New York after the overnight ceasefire between the Trump administration and Tehran. The truce is a positive for the aviation industry, which has been locked in turbulence for six weeks, as surging jet fuel prices have crushed the margins of major carriers, forcing ticket and baggage price hikes and triggering travel chaos across the Gulf region.

"Even two weeks is a positive because we will see some flow of oil return," Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told Bloomberg Television in an interview.

Walsh pointed out that even with a ceasefire underway, jet fuel prices "will remain elevated for some time."

"If crude has come down 16%, you like to think jet will come down by a similar figure, but it's still going to be a high price. That will mean higher ticket prices. It is inevitable," he warned.

Walsh also cautioned that jet fuel supply shortage risks remain elevated, with Asia seen as the most exposed region, followed by Africa and Europe. JPMorgan outlined "demand destruction" and how the energy shock spreads in a note here.

Even though WTI and Brent crude prices collapsed overnight, Walsh said normalization across the airline industry and energy markets will take time.

Delta Air Lines warned earlier that it expects to incur more than $2 billion in fuel costs through June, but noted that it has yet to change its full-year profit forecast because the outlook remains too murky.

Last week...

• Third-Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees as Jet Fuel Prices Spike

Malaysia Airlines' Nasaruddin Bakar warned that "even if the war stops, it's going to take many, many more months for the price to stabilize."

Thai Airways CEO Chai Eamsiri pointed out, "This time is about the infrastructure that was destroyed. It will take some time to bring back all the supply, the facilities, the refineries, and the infrastructure."

"The Iran conflict has flipped the airline industry on its head, as fuel costs have more than doubled at a time when demand has improved," Melius analyst Conor Cunningham told clients.

Relief in airline stocks was evident in premarket trading in New York, with United Airlines up 11.5%, Delta Air Lines up 11%, and Southwest Airlines up 10%.

In mid-March, amid all the panic, UBS analyst Atul Maheswari asked: "Are we approaching a bottom for these airline stocks?" It appears so (well so far).

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 08:45

US Futures, Global Stocks And Bonds Soar On Ceasefire Relief, Oil Plummets

US futures, global stocks and bonds are sharply higher while oil prices plunge the most in years as a wave of optimism swept through global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz: JPMorgan's Market Intel desk, which moves from Neutral to Tactically Bullish this morning, says to look for a re-risking in the very near-term albeit it with higher energy prices. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 2.8% higher while emerging-market stocks rallied the most since 2022; Nasdaq gains 3.5% with Mag7 and Semis seeing significant bids as part of an ‘Everything Rally’ ex-Energy. Yet while the overwhelming mood in markets is relief, the same core challenges remain to find a resolution amenable to both countries and Goldman's Delta-One head says he is selling the rally. Brent plunged 16% to around $93 a barrel. Bonds surged, with 10Y tsy yields sliding 8bps to 4.23% while benchmark UK yields tumbled by 22 basis points. The dollar weakened to a one-month low. Gold and silver gain. The macro data focus today is on the Fed Minutes ahead of PCE and CPI releases later this week.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all sharply higher: Meta +5%, Tesla +4.5%, Alphabet +4%, Nvidia +3.5%, Amazon +4%, Microsoft +3.3%, Apple +2%

• Gainers also include precious-metal miners and financial firms, while chemical and fertilizer names fall.
• Energy stocks fall due to the ceasefire: Exxon (XOM) -5.3%, Chevron (CVX) -4.3% and Venture Global (VG) -11%
• Airlines rally: United (UAL) +11%, Delta (DAL) +10%
• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) climbs 8% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results. The earnings prompted Craig-Hallum to raise its rating to buy, citing “improving business momentum and significant growth opportunities over multiple business segments.”
• Levi Strauss (LEVI) gains 9% after the apparel company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue forecasts for the full year citing strong demand as the denim brand steers shoppers to its own stores and website.

In corporate news, Super Micro Computer launched an internal probe to investigate circumstances surrounding server sales to China. Elon Musk is seeking to have Sam Altman removed from his roles at OpenAI as part of his legal challenge to the company’s conversion to a for-profit company.

The ceasefire announcement came not long before a deadline Trump had set that threatened a major escalation of the war. “We have now stepped back off the edge of the precipice,” said Aviva’s Richard Saldanha. The rapid twists and turns of the war have led to a record intensity of stock trading, according to a measure of daily SPY ETF turnover.

Looking at overnight markets, the most dramatic moves were in oil markets. European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years, shedding as much as 20%. Prices of refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel — which had been the biggest threats to global inflation — also tumbled.

As part of the two-week truce, Iran said it will allow ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the chokehold on energy supplies that have threatened to cripple the global economy and accelerate inflation. A potential snag comes from the FT which reports that Iran demands fees for ships passing through the strait and will ask payment for tolls in crypto payment. While many investors cautioned that there is still a wide gap in the negotiation demands of Iran and the US, the widespread view was that stocks have fallen so sharply in recent weeks that any de-escalation path would be enough to trigger a rebound. 

“This is also showing promising signs that we’ve dodged the worst-case scenario,” said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “It’s a good result considering the alternatives, as it shows a willingness to get something done.”

The latest news has left the Trump Reversal Index — a gauge created by Bloomberg strategist Simon White that combines various macro indicators — back to not much higher than where it was before the war started.  Light positioning is also fueling Wednesday’s relief rally. Volatility-control funds’ allocations to US equities had recently fallen to 56%, the lowest since July, according to Barclays. 

What comes next will depend on five questions, according to Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. These include whether Iran fully reopens Hormuz and whether Israel sticks to the ceasefire. Hormuz will “never go back to the way it was before,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. “Iran’s ability to shut the waterway will embed a risk premium in the price of all commodities flowing through it for the foreseeable future.” More than 800 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf.

In politics, US regulators unveiled a plan to overhaul rules intended to prevent money laundering. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a US-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a similar group focused on bilateral investment.

Traders are now back to seeing a strong chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Swaps are signaling a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the year-end, compared with almost no chance seen at the start of this week. Before the war started, they had priced in more than two reductions. 

Some of the world’s largest investment firms are betting the market turbulence is past its peak and are buying bonds and artificial-intelligence stocks, while selling the dollar. Kellie Wood at Schroders Plc snapped up short-dated bonds including Treasuries on Wednesday morning. Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. is considering doing the same alongside plans to sell the greenback. Allspring Global Investments is buying tech and defense stocks that are seen as insulated from energy shocks.

European stocks are soaring: the Estoxx 50 up more than 5% and the Stoxx 600 is up 4% alongside a 14% decline in Brent crude as  markets cheer news of the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, even if the truce is a “fragile” one. European equity sectors are mostly higher with outperformance in travel, IT and consumer discretionary. Airline stocks, which have been pummeled by concerns of skyrocketing energy prices, lead gains in Europe. EasyJet Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG both jumped more than 10%. Energy stocks post material losses.Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• European oil stocks plunge on an otherwise broadly risk-on day, with airlines and technology shares particularly strong after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, sending the crude price tumbling and other asset classes soaring. Luxury-goods stocks, miners and chemicals stocks also rise strongly
• Close Brothers shares surge as much as 23%, the most since August, as the lender said the estimated cost of the FCA’s motor finance redress proposal is broadly similar to its existing provision
• Gamma Communications shares soar as much as 15%, their biggest intraday gain on record, after the telecom services company said it’s in preliminary talks with a number of potential bidders
• Redcare Pharmacy shares rise as much as 16% after the German firm’s preliminary first-quarter figures reassured analysts. Shares in Swiss peer DocMorris gain as much as 9.9%
• Polish coal miners Bogdanka and JSW slump after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The move is expected to ease the energy shock, denting bets on a broader return to coal-fired power in Europe
• Shares in Norway’s Yara fall as much as 13%, while Germany’s K+S drops as much as 13%, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Stocks in Dubai — a key target of Iranian attacks during the conflict — jumped 8.5%, the most since Dec. 2014. Pakistan equities were also among the top gainers, after the country emerged as a key mediator in the ceasefire.

Still, there were continued reports of hostilities, underscoring the fragility of the deal. The UAE said it responded to a missile threat as of early afternoon local time, while Kuwait’s army cited “intense” attacks from Iran throughout the morning. “Markets have been moving very quickly, setting us up for a relief rally,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “What will happen in the next few weeks — who knows? It’s hard to believe that this is a long-term resolution.”  

Asian stocks rose for a fourth straight day to a one-month high as oil prices tumbled after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, easing fears of supply disruptions and inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 4.9%, led by heavyweight chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. South Korea’s Kospi surged nearly 7%, leading gains in the region, while benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan advanced more than 3% each. Shares also advanced more than 3% in mainland China, Hong Kong and India. The Reserve Bank of India held key interest rates on Wednesday, striking a cautious tone as it monitors the impact of surging oil prices on the economy and pledges to curb any excessive currency moves.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.8% with the greenback lower versus all major peers. The kiwi is one of the better G-10 performers following the hawkish hold from the RBNZ.  

In rates, global bond yields are materially lower with German and UK 2-year borrowing costs down 22bps and 25bps respectively as traders scale back ECB and BOE hike bets. The US curve is in bull-steepening mode with traders pricing a circa 50% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end. Treasury futures trade near session highs reached following gap higher at the Asia open, with oil benchmarks down more than 10% and stocks surging after US and Iran set a two-week ceasefire and Tehran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are lower by 3bp-6bp across a steeper curve as long-end tenors lag front-end and belly; 10-year is lower by more than 6bp near 4.23%. Swap spreads leg higher as demand pours in for cash Treasuries, with long-end spreads wider by nearly 3bp. The US session includes 10-year note reopening; demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year new issue.  Treasury’s $39 billion 10-year note reopening has WI yield near 4.24%, about 2bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.7bp; auction cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year reopening

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down about 16% near session lows; their biggest drop since the covid crash; Brent crude fell as much as 16% and European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years despite uncertainty about how quickly transit through Hormuz can resume. Precious metals are gaining, with spot gold and silver up 1.7% and 5.3% respectively. Bitcoin has added 3.2%. 

Looking at today's calendar, the US economic data calendar is blank; Fed speaker slate includes San Francisco’s Daly at 1:05pm, and FOMC releases minutes of March meeting at 2pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +2.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +3.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +3.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +3.8%
• DAX +4.7%
• CAC 40 +4.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -6 basis points at 4.23%
• VIX -5.5 points at 20.26
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.8% at 1200.59
• euro +0.8% at $1.1685
• WTI crude -15.9% at $95.04/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil headed for the biggest drop in six years and global equities surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump said the US will help relieve Hormuz traffic with more than 800 vessels still trapped in the Persian Gulf. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire but said it doesn’t include Hezbollah in Lebanon. BBG
• Kuwait said it’s dealing with “intense” Iranian attacks this morning and some Arab states reported continued attacks. BBG
• NATO chief Mark Rutte meets Trump today, hoping to temper the president’s anger that alliance members have refused to help. But Rutte’s own allies are questioning whether his deferential approach is appropriate, or even working, according to people familiar. BBG
• Chinese imports into the US haven’t dropped as much as the headline numbers might suggest as companies slash the value of their shipments “using tactics ranging from legal accounting tricks to outright fraud.” NYT
• The RBI held rates at 5.25% in its first policy decision since the Middle East crisis erupted. The RBNZ left its benchmark rate at 2.25%. BBG
• Japanese workers’ wages adjusted for inflation rose at the fastest pace since 2021, backing the case for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate hike as soon as this month. Real wages increased 1.9% from a year earlier in February, marking a second straight monthly gain, the labor ministry reported Wednesday. Economists had forecast a 1.3% increase. BBG
• The Treasury Department wants to talk to state insurance commissioners about the private loans piling up in insurers’ portfolios. Those state regulators have been keeping some of their thoughts to themselves.
• Moody's Ratings has cut its outlook on a $36-billion Blue Owl fund to "negative" from "stable" on Tuesday, citing redemption requests that were "significantly higher" than peers in the first quarter. RTRS
• In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the Democratic-backed candidate sailed to a nearly 20-point landslide victory Tuesday in a battleground Trump carried less than two years ago. Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump’s margin of victory by two thirds in the state’s reddest district despite losing the election — the most significant overperformance the party has seen across all seven House special elections so far this cycle. Politico

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rallied with markets euphoric and relieved after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran in the final hours before his Tuesday evening deadline. The ceasefire was proposed by Pakistan and is subject to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran was said to have agreed to, while the US and Iran are set to conduct talks on Friday in Islamabad. Furthermore, Israel and Lebanon were reported to be part of the ceasefire, although Israeli PM Netanyahu later denied that Lebanon was included. ASX 200 advanced with the gains led by outperformance in gold miners and tech, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum amid the slump in oil prices. Nikkei 225 rose above the 56,000 level with sentiment in Japan boosted by the lower oil prices, while participants also digested the firmer-than-expected wages data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the widespread risk-on mood amid the US-Iran ceasefire and as Hong Kong participants returned to the market following a five-day closure.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current (Mar) 42.2 vs. Exp. 47.9 (Prev. 48.9).
• Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (Mar) 38.7 (Prev. 50.0).
• Japanese Current Account (Feb) 3.933B vs. Exp. 3549B (Prev. 941.6B).
• Japanese Labour Cash Earnings (Feb) 3.3% vs Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 3.0%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +3.7%) have expressed relief from the announcement of a two-week Iran ceasefire, with all indices gaining by over 2%. European sectors are entirely in the green, ex. Energy and Utilities. Cyclicals benefit the most, with Travel and Leisure, Technology and Consumer Products and Services topping the pile.

Top European News

• German Factory Orders MoM (Feb) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. -11.1%).
• French Balance of Trade (Feb) -5.8B vs. Exp. -2.3B (Prev. -1.8B).
• French Imports (Feb) 57.8B (Prev. 55.3B).
• French Exports (Feb) 52.0B (Prev. 53.4B).
• EU Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
• EU Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 2%).

FX

• FX markets began the session firmly risk-on as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, clearing a path for the "re-open" of the Hormuz Strait. Unsurprisingly, the Buck has been knocked with DXY -0.7%, as it loses its favour as the preferred hedge against energy with Brent crude below the USD 100/bbl mark. In a note this morning, Jefferies set out three potential future scenarios: 1) a narrow diplomatic Off-Ramp, centred on reopening the Strait of Hormuz under a face-saving framework for Iran, 2) frozen conflict, where the ceasefire is extended or repeatedly renewed without a formal peace agreement, with oil trading below crisis peaks but above pre-war levels. 3) escalation resumes: triggering renewed disruption fears, pushing oil prices higher, and driving a sharp risk-off move in global markets.
• NZD is the clear outperformer against the USD, helped by both the positive Middle East development and remarks in RBNZ's post-meeting presser, where Governor Breman said the MPC discussed the possibility of raising rates in April and May meetings, and the "Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting" Despite the Kiwi's strength, AUD/USD has also been helped alongside risk sentiment and a rebound in precious metals.
• GBP is relieved by the slump in crude prices, with Cable +1% at the time of writing. Markets are still expecting c. 30bps of hiking for the BoE, a pullback of the same magnitude since Tuesday's close. The Cable rally stalled just above the 1.3440 mark; EUR/GBP has recently fallen just below its 200 DMA, and beneath the 0.87 mark – next up, 50 DMA at 0.8687.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are soaring this morning, with upside facilitated by the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has helped to pressure the crude complex. As a whole, bonds are stronger, and a clear curve steepening bias is seen across the complex.
• USTs are currently trading at session highs, holding at the top end of a 111-05+ to 111-21 range. US paper moved higher on the announcement itself, and then gradually strolled to peaks as the session progressed. European price action has been fairly muted, with the benchmark ultimately trading sideways. From a yield perspective, the 2yr yield now resides around 3.719% (vs Tuesday's close at 3.80%) and well below the peaks from the Iranian conflict at 4.027%. Geopols aside, focus today will turn to the FOMC Minutes of the March confab, where the Bank left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with no change to forward guidance, balance sheet plans or implementation guidance. A US 10yr auction is also due.
• Bunds and Gilts follow the above, and currently reside at highs. The former is higher by over 175 ticks and within a 125.74 to 126.45 range, whilst UK paper extends gains of over 230 ticks, in an 89.70 to 90.18 range. Europe and UK fixed income has been considerably pressured since the start of the Iranian war, given their high dependence on external energy. For now, some short term reprieve across assets – and this has been reflected in market pricing, with only 2bps worth of hikes priced in for the ECB’s April meeting (vs 12bps pre-ceasefire); however, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with markets still pricing in 45bps worth of hikes by year-end. From a yield perspective, the UK 2yr yield sank at the open, bottoming at 4.044% (vs post-Iran war peak at 4.712%); GE 2yr yield now hovers around the 2.50% mark.

Commodities

• The US and Iran have agreed in principle to a two-week ceasefire, brokered with support from Pakistan, under which the US will suspend bombing, and Iran will allow controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump described the move as a “double-sided ceasefire,” saying most major disputes have already been resolved and that a broader peace agreement is close. Iran has accepted the pause, with its leadership approving negotiations set to begin in Islamabad, where both sides aim to finalise terms based on a 10-point proposal submitted by Tehran.
• The ceasefire remains conditional and fragile. Iran stated it will halt military responses only if attacks stop, while warning it remains ready to retaliate if provoked. The arrangement includes limited safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination, a critical step given the severe disruption to global shipping and energy flows. Israel has signalled support for the temporary pause, though there is conflicting information over whether Lebanon is included.
• However, it is worth noting recent reporting suggests that explosions were heard at Iran's Lavan refinery, and other reports suggest that explosions were also heard at Iran's Siri Island - details are light at this stage. But some may begin to question whether the ceasefire has already been violated.
• Energy prices plummeted. Crude futures both tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level following the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire within a couple of hours prior to President Trump's deadline. WTI May'26 resides towards the bottom of a USD 91.70-96.27/bbl and Brent Jun'26 towards the foot of a USD 91.05-109.19/bbl range. Dutch TTF slipped to under EUR 45/MWh.
• Spot gold rose above USD 4,850/oz before paring gains slightly to trade around the middle of a USD 4,713-4,858/oz range. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 76.11/oz) and resides near the top of a USD 73.38-77.65/oz parameter.
• Copper climbed to a three-week high, and aluminium also advanced as easing concerns over global growth lifted sentiment. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 12,550.00-12,743.90/t range.
• China has reportedly given additional crude import quotas to independent refiners to maintain fuel production at the mandated 2025 levels.
• Abu Dhabi's media office announces that three people were injured after debris from air defence interception sparked fires at the Habshan gas complex, operations have been suspended temporarily.
• IATA chief said if Hormuz Strait were to reopen, it will still take a period of months to get where jet fuel supply needs to be.

Central Banks

• RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, while it stated in the near term inflation, is expected to increase and economic recovery to weaken, while committee is focused on ensuring that inflation returns at a 2% target midpoint over the medium-term.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said in online post-meeting press conference that the decision to hold rates was a consensus, adds discussed raising rates at today's meeting but were not close to hiking. We were not close to hiking rates today and there were no strong advocates for a hike today. If oil prices keep falling our inflation forecast would be on the high side. Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting, it depends.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said sees downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, while he is cautious on the economic outlook and noted uncertainty is elevated. Current policy rate is well-positioned to respond and rate is broadly in range of neutral. US labour market is roughly in balance and susceptible to adverse shocks. US inflation remains above the central bank's targets and warns that persistent elevated energy prices can weigh in consumer and business spending.
• ECB's Dolenc said that if the Iran war drags on, it will be very bad for inflation and growth.
• RBI keeps Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it maintains a neutral stance.
• ASB Bank now sees RBNZ raising rates in September and December of this year vs prev. forecast of a December hike.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. Trump said the reason for doing so is that they have already met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East. Furthermore, he confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran, although a two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalised and consummated.
• US President Trump posted "A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process...this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!"
• US President Trump tells AFP that Iran deal is complete and comprehensive victory for the US, also said Iran uranium will be perfectly taken care of and that he believes China got Iran to negotiate.
• Iranian Press SNN notes of a potential ceasefire violation, highlighting several explosions that occurred in Siri and Lavan islands. Furthermore, Iran’s National Security Council says within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel Aviv.
• Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details, with the aim of confirming Iran's battlefield achievements politically within maximum of 15 days, with talks to begin April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree. Talks with the US do not mean of the war, according to Iranian media. The safe passage through Hormuz is possible for two weeks and Foreign Minister Araghchi said their forces will halt operations if attacks on Iran cease.
• Pakistan's President invites US and Iran delegates to Islamabad on Friday, while reported also noted that EU envoys Witkoff, Kushner and VP Vance is expected to attend US-Iran talks.
• US official said ceasefire will begin this evening, but they believe it may take some time for orders to reach Revolutionary Guard units at the field level.
• Iran and Oman reportedly will be allowed to charge for passage in the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire.
• Israel's Ynet cites security sources stating that Iran ceasefire will also include Lebanon.
• Iran's Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to seek a truce, according to Axios.
• Iran's permanent ambassador to the UN said Iran categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire, while he stated that any solution to the end of the conflict must guarantee a definitive and irreversible anti-aggression and establish a just and lasting peace.
• The US will insist on removing nuclear materials from Iran, Al Hadath reported citing Israeli officials via Haaretz.
• White House official said Iran ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
• Senior White House official said Israel is part of the 2-week ceasefire, according to CNN. Israel agrees to suspend bombing while talks are ongoing.
• Omani Transport Minister said no fees can be imposed on the Strait of Hormuz according to the signed agreements.
• Iraq's Islamic Resistance suspends operations for two weeks.
• Hezbollah will announce formal position on ceasefire and response to Israeli PM's assertion that Lebanon is not included, according to sources.
• New wave of Iranian missiles fired towards Israel.
• Israeli military official said Israel is still striking Iran, according to CNN.
• Several explosions reported at Iran’s Sirri Island on Wednesday morning; source of explosions unknown, Mehr News reported.
• Explosions heard at the Lavan oil refinery (50k BPD) in Iran, Mehr reported; origin of the explosion is not known.
• Bahrain sounds missile alert hours after the US and Iran ceasefire agreement, according to AP.
• N12 noted reported of explosion in Kermanshah northwestern Iran.
• IDF said it identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel.
• Iran's Supreme Security Council said fingers are on the trigger and as soon as the enemy makes the slightest mistake, it will be answered with full force.
• Maritime Shipping Data shows traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited, Arab News reported.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Apr 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -10.4%
• 1:05 pm: United States Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks
• 2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are seeing a sharp rebound overnight following news that the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Trump posted that following a request by Pakistan, he agreed to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran agreeing to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”. He claimed that the US had already met its military objectives and called the 10-point proposal received from Iran a “workable basis on which to negotiate”. Tehran accepted the ceasefire proposal “if attacks against Iran are halted”. Foreign Minister Araghchi also announced that, in response to Trump’s “acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal”, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks “via coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration to technical limitations”. The AP has reported that the plan will allow Iran and Oman to charge fees for transits through the Strait. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif has invited US and Iran for talks in Islamabad on Friday (April 10) to negotiate a “conclusive agreement”.

Investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief that an offramp out of the war is being taken even as there’ll be various elements to watch to see whether this leads to sustained de-escalation. Will the ceasefire hold? We saw some strikes by Israel and Iran overnight though these may have been in the works before the conditional ceasefire. We’ve also seen conflicting commentary on whether the ceasefire will extend to Israel’s action in Lebanon. Can talks lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities? Trump’s comment last night that “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to” suggests a lower bar for agreement, but Iran’s reported 10-point plan includes elements such as the lifting of all sanctions and Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz that have previously been unacceptable to the US and allies. Those points also do not restrict Iran’s enriched uranium, which Trump suggested would be "perfectly taken care of" as he claimed a “total and complete victory" in an interview to AFP late last night. And in his latest post overnight, Trump appeared keen to lean into the prospects for full resolution, claiming “a big day for World Peace” and that the US “will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz”.

Indeed, the most important question for markets will be to what extent does shipping via Hormuz pick up in the coming days. For now, oil prices have plunged on the ceasefire news, with Brent crude down -13.51% to $94.51/bbl this morning as I type, its lowest intra-day level in four weeks. It had been at nearly $110/bbl before the news of Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal began to emerge but then fell as low as $91/bbl as the ceasefire was confirmed early in the Asian session before recovering slightly. WTI is similarly down -14.92% to $96.10/bbl.

In turn, risk assets are seeing a sharp rally. S&P 500 futures are up +2.48%, which leaves them less than 2% below the levels on February 27 before the Iran strikes began and +6.8% up from their closing low on Mach 30. NASDAQ futures are +3.15%, while those on Euro STOXX 50 are +5.42% higher after a weak session yesterday. Asian equities are also rallying strongly, with the KOSPI (+7.26%) and the Nikkei (+5.26%) at the forefront. The Hang Seng (+2.82%) is advancing after the holiday, while the CSI (+2.76%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.92%) are also seeing solid gains in mainland China, as is the S&P/ASX 200 (+2.71%) in Australia.

On the fixed income side, 2yr (-6.8bps to 3.72%) and 10yr (-5.2bps to 4.24%) Treasuries are seeing a sizeable rally, with 10yr JGBs (-4.9bps) posting a similar advance. Fed funds futures are now pricing 14bps of Fed cuts by December, up from zero when Europe went home yesterday. And in FX, the dollar index is down -0.92%, while gold is +2.00% higher.

Earlier yesterday, markets had traded cautiously amidst worsening headlines, including Trump’s social media post that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless “something revolutionarily” happens on Iran’s side, as well as news of increased strikes by the US, Israel and Iran across the Middle East. US markets then saw a recovery late in yesterday’s session as news broke that the US and Iran were considering Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal. That helped the S&P 500 recover to +0.08% by the close, having been -1.2% down earlier in the session, while 2yr (-6.1bps) and 10yr (-3.8bps) Treasury yields rallied late yesterday, having been a few basis points higher on the day at the European close.

European markets had closed near the session lows yesterday, with the STOXX 600 falling back -1.01%. The more externally-sensitive DAX (-1.06%) led the declines, while the FTSE 100 (-0.84%), CAC 40 (-0.67%) and FTSEMIB (-0.47%) were also all in the red. European bonds also saw a significant sell-off with yields on 10yr bunds rising +9.1bps to 3.08%, just 1bps below the post-2011 high they had reached on March 27. Yields on 10yr BTPs (+11.6bps) and OATs (+10.0bps) saw a larger sell-off amid the risk-off mood.

Over in the UK, 10yr gilts (+7.1bps to 4.90%) saw a slightly more modest sell-off as the final UK March services PMI was revised down from 51.2 to 50.5. That marked a sharper decline than seen in the euro area, where the final services PMI was revised a touch higher, from 50.1 to 50.2. Within the euro area data, there was a notable divergence between resilience in Spain (53.3 vs 51.9 previous, 50.6 expected) and a marked decline in Italy (48.8 vs 52.3 prev., 50.9 exp), which might reflect the fact that while both countries have adopted fiscal measures to reduce the costs of the energy shock, the scale of the Spanish response has been significantly larger.

When it comes to yesterday’s US data, the highlight was the latest weekly ADP employment numbers, which showed private job gains pick up to +26k on average for the four weeks ending on March 21. That marked the strongest print since ADP started publishing the weekly data last year and equates to over 100k in monthly job gains. So that added to the easing labour market concerns after the strong March payrolls reports on Friday. US February durable goods orders also looked solid, with ex-transport orders up +0.8% MoM (vs. +0.5% expected) and core shipments up +0.9% (vs. +0.4% exp.). Meanwhile, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations series jumped from +3.00% to +3.42% in March, though this was a touch below consensus (+3.50%) and below the levels it reached after the Liberation Day tariffs last spring (3.63%). We also got comments from NY Fed President Williams, who was relatively sanguine yesterday when he said that that the war might add a tenth or two to core inflation, and that the story around underlying inflation was not much changed.

Finally, in other overnight news the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its cash rate at 2.25% as expected. The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee noted a significant shift in the economic outlook amid higher energy prices, which are expected to push short-term inflation up while slowing economic activity. The yield on the 2yr government note is -4.2bps lower this morning, though this is mostly matching the move in Treasuries.

To the day ahead now, we’ll have UK March Construction PMI, Germany February factory orders, March construction PMI, France February trade balance, current account balance, Eurozone February PPI and retail sales. We’ll also get the March FOMC minutes

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 08:26

A Pause To Negotiate A Deal? Some Caveats...

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Basically we wound up at the better end of our “base case” in yesterday’s Spaghetti Western, and you could argue we made it all the way into our best case of “ceasefire” (I’m reluctant to label it that, as you will see, but it is touching on that end).

I do think we are far from a “real deal”.

In any case, markets are responding according as both sides send people to Pakistan to negotiate a deal.

Stocks are up strongly across the globe, with Europe and Asia leading the way (they were hit hardest by the conflict). 

Bonds too are having an incredibly strong day (once again led by Europe).

Crude oil is falling like a rock, as shipping is potentially set to resume.

One reason stocks didn’t seem to respond much last week to rising spot oil prices was because later month contracts hadn’t risen much.

For now, the August WTI contract is basically where we were on March 23rd, the Monday that began the “deal is on the way” theater, which will temper how much further the stock market can rally.

Any “Ceasefire” Should Benefit the U.S. the Most

While we don’t know the specific status of each country, it seems fair to argue that the U.S. can do more to bolster its position – politically and military, than Iran can during a pause. A win for the U.S. and markets.

It will be interesting to see what develops on the “coalition” side of the equation. There has been reporting/wild speculation (difficult to tell the difference sometimes) that China was involved in bringing Iran to the deal. That could be interesting if true, and if China really wants to play a role.

Some “Caveats”

I suspect that how markets and voters respond, will influence what comes next. Two things show up as “immediate” question marks around the negotiations:

• The U.S. acceptance is “subject to” Iran opening the Strait. Iran has agreed to control shipping through the Strait. Both sides are “vague” enough that this could be acceptable enough to keep the negotiations going. Though it is pretty clear, that the first “walk away” moment, is likely to come from either side regarding how open the Strait really is.

• Vance (who will be leading the U.S. team) has already brought up the need for Iran to “negotiate in good faith”. Since the conflict started while “technical negotiations” were ongoing, this is another signal that the U.S. needs progress.

• The “Supreme Leader” who until last night, allegedly sending slips of paper with instructions to runners to deal with the negotiations, had been largely MIA (with many reporting severe wounds and questions about his power).

• Israel reportedly has agreed to cease attacks as well. Israel is largely aligned with the U.S. and largely dependent on U.S. forces in the region, but largely is not the same as totally.

These are just some of the things that could cause some breakdown in talks.

Everyone’s a Winner…

Both Iran and the U.S. are claiming this to be a major victory.

While it is all evolving rapidly, the U.S. has a multipoint plan. Iran has a multipoint plan.

 Very few of the points align.

Clearly this is why they are sitting down at the table.

Both sides have clearly read the “Art of the Deal” and are approaching negotiations from a maximalist point of view.

How serious either side is on each of their points remains to be seen. Given where we were yesterday morning, it would seem that the U.S. is likely to be the first to use the threat of ending the ceasefire to get maximum leverage.

Just this morning, the President announced “working with Iran” to dig up the nuclear materials. That seems like progress as ensuring Iran cannot attain nuclear weapons should be a key goal of the administration (and the world).

Bottom Line

This played out at the “optimistic” end of our spectrum of outcomes. A very pleasant surprise.

From here the devil (almost literally) will be in the details. I don’t expect smooth sailing, but market reaction will be muted in either direction, but especially to the downside, now that both sides seem willing to play ball. Though who wouldn’t play ball when you think your demands might be met, for a one-sided victory?

I do think public reaction, domestically, will influence how tough the U.S. negotiates versus trying to declare victory and move on.

Hopefully we see significant transit through the Strait.

On the negative side of things (there always has to be a negative), it is unclear how much damage has already been done to the global economy and supply chain, and how quickly that can be rectified (especially if traffic is limited).

Now we can get back to affordability (which got better with the pause, but is still an issue), private credit, etc.

Lot of comparisons to the post Liberation Day, TACO, rally. That just doesn’t seem correct.

Stocks were never in freefall like they were then.

We have not moved too far from the highs on many major indices. So, yes, the rally overnight can continue, but the comparisons to post Liberation Day, tariff walkback, rally isn’t realistic.

Good luck and am glad we aren’t waking up to the smoking rubble of a society (which never seemed likely but was in the back of everyone’s mind).

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 08:25

Shares Of Infrastructure Developer Erupt On Gulf Energy Reconstruction Prospects

The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire looks more like a pause in the six-week conflict than a long-lasting agreement, with language so broad and vague that it remains unclear who conceded what. The one clear point is that Iran's reported willingness to allow vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz was enough to send crude prices tumbling from triple-digit territory and spark a global relief rally across equities and bonds.

Everyone is breathing a sigh of relief on Wednesday morning, and traders are already identifying the companies best positioned to reap massive rewards from rebuilding damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf.

Shares of Chiyoda Corporation in Tokyo jumped 15.5% as traders assessed that the developer and builder of large-scale industrial infrastructure might be one of the major players in rebuilding damaged Gulf energy assets.

Chiyoda is a project developer and builder of industrial infrastructure, including:

• LNG and natural gas processing plants, one of its flagship niches

• Oil refining and petrochemical facilities

• Energy infrastructure and environmental systems

"Fundamentally, if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the next step is reconstruction demand for petrochemical plants, desalination plants, and other facilities," Kazuhiro Sasaki, head of research at Phillip Securities, wrote in a note.

On Tuesday, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol told French newspaper Le Figaro that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs.

Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, wrote in a note, "It is relatively straightforward to identify the countries where reconstruction will be needed, determine the types of projects required, and match these directly to relevant Japanese companies."

A Chiyoda spokesperson was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "Based on the situation so far, we are considering the resumption of on-site work for the LNG project in Qatar."

One of the most notably damaged energy assets in the Gulf region was Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility, where repairs could take up to five years and cost billions of dollars. Bloomberg noted that Chiyoda receives about 46% of its revenue from Qatar.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 07:20

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

• How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran: Maggie Haberman reconstructs the Situation Room deliberations that led to war. Trump overruled his vice president and ignored pessimistic intelligence assessments—a pattern that should surprise nobody. (New York Times) see also U.S. and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire. And on TACO Tuesday no less! (NPR)

• The American Gas Exporter That Pulls In Billions During Energy Shocks: Venture Global is set to benefit from the tightening global natural-gas market. (Wall Street Journal)

• Misreading the tea leaves: It is said that “the market” no longer expects rate cuts in 2026 and increasingly views Fed hikes as a possibility. That seems odd. For the past two years, the Fed has been unwilling to slow demand growth to levels necessary to hit its inflation target. But now that same institution will hike rates into an exogenous supply shock, exacerbating its drag on economic activity? That’d mark quite an inversion of the adage that one should control the things you can and accept those you cannot. (Carlyle)

• The Ridiculously Nerdy Intel Bet That Could Rake in Billions: Advanced chip packaging is suddenly at the center of the AI boom. Intel is going all in. (Wired)

• Private equity buyouts slump as AI fears and war dent dealmaking Groups agreed acquisitions worth $172bn in three months to March, a 36% fall from previous quarter. (Financial Times)

• Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream: The US Air Force has flown over 13,000 missions in Iran, striking over 12,000 targets. Iranian drone and missile strikes have declined by 90%-95% since the war began, and interception rates by Gulf countries is reported at 90%+. Retired Air Force Brigadier General Cantwell: “The fact that there have not been more fighter jets lost in Iran is a testament to the capabilities of US forces. That this hasn’t happened until now is an absolute miracle.” (Eye on the Market)

• In Parks and on Rooftops, Urban Beekeeping Takes Flight: Raising honeybees in the city has emerged as a popular sustainability practice — and a big business. But hives can also leave native pollinators in a sticky fix. (CityLab)

• ‘This Was the Real Thing’: Meet the Woman Who Alerts the World When an Asteroid Could Hit: A profile of the UN official responsible for warning humanity about asteroid impacts. The most important job nobody’s heard of. (The Guardian)

• ‘An Operational Success and a Huge Strategic Failure’ Perhaps the most apt description of Trump’s policy toward Iran is an “incoherent maze” — a phrase Pete Hegseth applied in 2016 to Barack Obama’s foreign policy. Lost in his own labyrinth, Trump granted sanctions relief to Iran even as he bombed it, and careened from threatening war crimes unless Iran opened the strait to suggesting that the strait wasn’t our concern. (New York Times) see also The Mythology of Pete Hegseth: Garrett Graff dismantles the mythology Hegseth has built around himself as the Iran War’s cheerleader-in-chief. The alternate history he’s selling is dangerous. (Doomsday Scenario)

• Maga stands by Trump on Iran — for now: On the streets of small-town Georgia, the president’s base is backing the war as swing voters waver.  (Financial Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Songyee Yoon, founder and managing partner of Principal Venture Partners, an AI-focused investment firm established in 2024, and since 2025 a member of the board of directors of HP.

These Cities and States Are Taking Aim at Data Centers

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Evidence Points To Ukraine Being Behind TurkStream Attempted Sabotage (To No One's Surprise)

Via Remix News,

Secret service documents allegedly prove that the Ukrainians planned to blow up the Turkish and Blue Stream pipelines years ago, permanently cutting Europe off from cheap Russian gas, reports Magyar Nemzet, citing a report out of Ellenpont.

However, Serbia’s intelligence chief is denying that Ukrainians were the perpetrators, instead claiming that they had reports of a possible attack planned by a certain migrant gang group of radical muslims but had not considered it legitimate intel.

However, this same chief also does not rule out that Ukraine was the contractor behind the scheme.

The Serbian section of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline was set on fire in a sabotage operation on Sunday.

Since this pipeline supplies Hungary with gas, blowing up the pipeline would have put the country’s gas supply at risk.

The portal also reported that, in response to the explosives found near the TurkStream pipeline in Serbia last weekend, a presenter on one of Zelensky’s propaganda TV stations stated: “If the Ukrainians want to blow up the Turkish Stream, they will blow it up.”

President Zelensky has been accused by Budapest of openly interfering in the Hungarian elections by creating an energy crisis to help opposition leader Péter Magyar. Kyiv wants to cut Hungary off from all Russian oil, and they are counting on Magyar’s Tisza Party to do this.

Since January, Kyiv has refused to reopen the Druzhba after a Russian attack, with Hungary and Slovakia claiming Zelensky is keeping the pipeline closed on purpose. Back in August last year, after a Ukrainian attack on part of the pipeline in Russia, the section was repaired quickly, and Hungary’s foreign minister made it clear that they expected no further attacks on such vital energy infrastructure.

In September 2022, when the Ukrainians destroyed Nord Stream, they were allegedly planning a double attack, writes Magyar Nemet, with the other target being the TurkStream.

“This pipeline is essential for Hungary’s natural gas supply, as 56 percent, or more than half, of the natural gas in our system comes through the Turkish Stream pipeline,” wrote Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó after the incident.

Calling the situation “extremely serious,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said, “We are currently under a Ukrainian gas blockade, but we can make up for the loss from the south. If this umbilical cord is cut, the Hungarian economy will come to a standstill.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 06:30

US, Iran, Israel Agree To 2-Week Ceasefire; Tehran Will Allow Safe Passage Via Hormuz For Two Weeks Summary: 

• President Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on them "agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz"

• Iran accepts Pakistan's two-week ceasefire proposal, with the deal approved by the New Supreme Leader; Iran also says safe passage via Hormuz "Possible" for two weeks

• Israel has reportedly agreed to suspend bombing while talks are ongoing.

*  *  *

President Trump, Iran Agree To 2-Week Ceasefire

Building on the conversations leaked all day, it appears President Trump has withdrawn his threat to end Iranian civilization as they know it...

Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.

This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!

The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Long-term PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.

We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.

Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.

On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Long-term problem close to resolution.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

President DONALD J. TRUMP

Additionally, CNN reports that Israel has agree to suspend bombing while talks are ongoing.

Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene)

Israel is a part of the two-week ceasefire Trump agreed to just an hour and a half before his deadline, a senior White House official tells CNN.

Israel has agreed to also suspend its bombing campaign while negotiations continue, the official said.

And the most important variable, Iran, is also on the same page, and accepts Pakistan's two-week ceasefire proposal with the deal approved by the New Supreme Leaders, according to Iran's Foreign Minster, Aragchi.

More importantly, Iran has said that safe passage via Hormuz "possible" for two weeks.

Talks between the US and Iran will start on Friday, although Iran was quick to note that it will engage in talks with complete distrust.  

* * * 

The reaction is as you would expect.

Oil plunged (WTI -16%)...

Stocks spiked (S&P Futs +2%)...

Gold ($4800) and Bitcoin ($72500) are soaring.

Treasury yields and the dollar are tumbling.

...well it wouldn't be Tuesday without TACOs.

Last Ditch Peace Effort by Pakistan Prime Minister

With just hours until Trump's self declared deadline wherein he said a "whole civilization will die tonight" - Pakistan's leader and host of mediation efforts, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has tried to introduce a last minute olive branch, hoping that the US will avoid its decimation campaign:

I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.

Will Trump latch on to this plea and last minute effort of good will? The sides are aware of the proposal:

TEHRAN IS POSITIVELY REVIEWING PAKISTAN’S REQUEST FOR A TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE: SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL

TRUMP IS AWARE OF PAKISTAN'S PROPOSAL: AXIOS CITING LEAVITT

Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend…

— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) April 7, 2026

In the meantime, some fresh statements via state Tasnim:

• "If Trump wants to fall into a hole with his madness, we have prepared a black hole for him from which it will be  impossible for him to get out", Tasnim reports citing an Iranian military source
• "Have prepared good surprises for Trump's possible madness; One of them is the addition of Aramco oil facilities, Yanba oil facilities and the Fujairah pipeline to Iran's goals, and in case of Trump's crime, Iran will not hesitate to impose heavy costs on America and its partners."
• “Trump thinks that with these threats the strait will be opened and the price of oil will go down! He doesn't know that if he carries out his threat, he will have to wait for the oil price of $200 in the coming days."

Axios Cites 'Glimmer' of Progress as Trump Deadline Looms

More from Axios' Barak Ravid, though we should note that it's increasingly difficult to know what has legitimacy:

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by President Trump's 8pm ET deadline still looks like a long shot, according to a U.S. official, an Israeli official and two other sources with knowledge of the talks.

• A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from "can we get there?" to "can we get there by 8 o'clock tonight?"

These wild headline swings (and in markets) concerning positive or negative signs on the status of indirect negotiations have been going for weeks at this point. 

WH Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt thinks it's assuring to inform the public that only Trump knows "where things stand and what he will do," adding: "The Iranian regime has until 8PM Eastern Time to meet the moment and make a deal with the United States."

Russia, China Veto Hormuz Strait Resolution at UNSC

On Tuesday a UN Security Council resolution on opening the Strait of Hormuz failed due to Russia and China vetoing it. It was drafted by Bahrain and authorized countries to use military force if necessary to open the strait for the free flow of shipping and commerce.

The resolution garnered 11 votes in favor, but permanent veto-wielding members China and Russia blocked it by registering no votes. This comes after days of pressure from Gulf countries to restore free passage in the strait, amid Trump's Operation Epic Fury. Russia complained that the UN res would damage "very fragile truce negotiations" by given broad allowance to use military force to reopen the waterway.

Tehran Times Reverses in Astounding Correction, Now Says Talks Are Not Closed

The NY Times had also said it only within the last hour, based on the initial headline out of Tehran, that all backchannel talks were suspended.

Tehran Times deleted this post from 2 hours ago saying all communication with US has closed.

Trump Hints at Possible Deadline Extension

In a call with FOX's Bret Baier, Trump says 8 PM deadline today "could change if negotiations move forward, but sticking to deadline for now." And yet Tehran has said it has suspended all back channel negotiations. TACO Tuesday? 

TRUMP TELLS FOX NEWS IF NEGOTIATIONS ADVANCE AND THERE IS SOMETHING TANGIBLE WE MIGHT EXTEND THE DEADLINE: AL ARABIYA

Meanwhile, per news wires and CNN:

The Israeli military is on standby and ready to launch strikes on Iran ahead of US President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an Israeli security source tells CNN. The Israeli security source said plans have been prepared for a combined US-lsraeli operation with full military coordination pending a green light from Trump.

Iran: All Diplomatic Channels With US Have Ceased

"Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the US," Tehran Times has reported. The publication says that "Any and all message exchanges have also been suspended."

The Tehran Times is seen as tied to the hardline factions of the government, and calls itself the "voice of the Islamic Revolution" - but is not directly state-owned per se.

The NY Times also confirms "Iran has stopped negotiating with the US and it told Pakistan that it will not continue ceasefire talks."

Meanwhile President Masoud Pezeshkian has praised the willingness of "14 million" Iranian citizens to "sacrifice" by taking to the streets, seeking to protect power plants and other sensitive vital infrastructure, as the US-Israeli bombs rain down. US conservative MSM publications have decried this as a form of "human shields". 

'Human chains' seen on some bridges...

Iranians form human shield at Kazeroun power plant ahead of Trump’s threatened strikes. pic.twitter.com/Le2VcEpPQv

— Aditya Raj Kaul (@AdityaRajKaul) April 7, 2026

And apparently at nuclear sites...

JUST IN:

Iranians are gathering on bridges and around power plants, forming human chains after threats of US and Israeli strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/DrGFZlfP0E

— Current Report (@Currentreport1) April 7, 2026

WH Trying to Manufacture 'Mission Accomplished'? Vance Says Objectives Completed

Vice President JD Vance has said that "very shortly" this war will be "completed" in a Tuesday morning statement. He stated specifically that the military objectives have been accomplished, adding there are "two pathways" - and that optimistically this will involve "lots of negotiations" - but with a deadline of 8pm ET. The US is "confident it will get an Iran response."

The below is from Hala Jaber, a longtime Sunday Times journalist and veteran Middle East war correspondent:

Trump is scrambling behind the scenes for a ceasefire with Iran, according to claims emerging via Fars News Agency. Allegations point to urgent outreach through multiple governments & intelligence channels. Citing what it describes as an “informed source,” the report claims the U.S. has been pushing for a ceasefire via backchannels, using countries it believes have credibility with Tehran.

According to the same account, Iran received calls from five heads of government & eight intelligence agencies, all seeking to open a path toward a ceasefire. It further claims Washington is considering reshaping its negotiation team, including removing Witkoff due to his ties to Netanyahu’s circle & replacing him with Vance to lead a more serious track. The urgency, the source says, is driven by mounting military & economic pressure, including fears of surging fuel prices. If true, it would mark a stark contrast to the public posture.

"I hope they make the right response," says @VP on Iran.

"They've got to know, we've got tools in our toolkit that we so far haven't decided to use. @POTUS can decide to use them, and he will decide to use them if the Iranians don't change their course of conduct." pic.twitter.com/UUiQ5SdEO5

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 7, 2026

Trump: A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight

Trump seems to be openly announcing plans for genocide - saying he's going to annihilate an entire civilization. What else do you call this? "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will," he threatened in a Tuesday Truth Social Post. "However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?" - he continued.

Meanwhile, according to The Associated Press:

Airstrikes pounded Tehran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, hours before the expiration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for the Islamic Republic to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on its infrastructure.

Kharg Island Bombed (Again)

Kharg Island is being bombed again on Tuesday, with a senior US officials telling Fox's Jennifer Griffin that the "U.S. hit dozens of military targets on Kharg Island overnight." Per the fresh reporting the targets included bunkers, a radar station, and ammunition storage.

However, the same officials described that landing docks were not intentionally targeted - that they only would have been struck if Iranians fired something from next to them. This development has led to speculation that this could be another round of softening operations to prepare for some kind of US Marine or special forces seizure.

This send oil back to the highs...

This would without doubt be very high risk, with the potential for significant US casualties. More from Griffin:

The strikes on Kharg Island were carried out solely by the US, not  Israel, I am told. “This is a message to the Iranians,” a senior US official told me.

Axios cites a US official to say the strikes on Kharg island were not directed at oil infrastructure, but were "re-strikes" on military targets that were hit previously.

NOW: U.S. airstrikes targeting shelters and defensive facilities on Iran's Kharg Island. pic.twitter.com/k1pauNpb6A

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 7, 2026

Bridges, Power Plants, Tit-For-Tat Warning

President Trump has been warning of the "complete demolition" of Iran’s power plants and bridges in a matter of hours - so by Tuesday's end - if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened by his deadline. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, is urging some last minute diplomatic action, warning, "We are close to the point where the situation in the region could spiral out of control." There have meanwhile been reports of more Iranian attacks on Qatar. "There are no winners if this war continues," he said.

But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not backing down, having on Tuesday claimed responsibility for attacks on petrochemical facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail region, stating the strikes were retaliation for earlier Israeli attacks on its Shiraz petrochemical facility.

Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that any strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges would trigger reciprocal attacks on regional infrastructure. The IRGC stated it targeted American companies in Jubail with missiles and drones, including Sadra, ExxonMobil, and Dark Chemical.

Images posted online show damage to a highway bridge between the northwestern Iranian cities of Hashtroud and Tabriz, following apparent Israeli strikes.

It also stated that a petrochemical complex in Juaymah belonging to the US company Shourdan Phillips was struck with medium-range missiles and drones.

Israeli Attacks on Iran Rail, Infrastructure Have Already Begun

Iran's Mehr News Agency is reporting attacks on Iran's rail system, including an Israeli strike hit the Yahya Abad railway bridge in the city of Kashan, in central Iran. The Deputy Governor of Isfahan has said that the strike killed two people.

The attack came after the IDF issued a warning telling Iranians against using trains for their "safety" until 9pm local time (17:30 GMT).

The governor of Mashhad has already announced the immediate suspension of all rail services departing the city amid the Israeli threat. It's being reported as a precautionary measure that will remain in effect "until further notice". Apparently this rail operation is being done only by the Israeli side of the bombing campaign.

More on Iran's 10-Point Response to US Ceasefire Plan

Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes, according to a paraphrase:

1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again

2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire

3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon

4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran

5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies

6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz

7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship

8. Iran would split these fees with Oman

9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz

10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations

Importantly, Tehran has dropped its demand for full war reconstruction reparations to be paid directly by the United States, providing a potential window to reach actual compromise with Washington.

75 Gulf Energy Assets Damaged In U.S.-Iran War As Supply Shock Intensifies

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock "is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined" because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

The newspaper asked Birol, "How quickly can Gulf production recover?"

He responded:

"We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover."

Cherry-picking the most important parts of the interview:

Le Figaro asked: Who will suffer the most?

Birol responded: The global economy will suffer. Of course, European countries will struggle, as will Japan, Australia, and others. But developing countries will be the most affected due to high oil, gas, and food prices, and accelerating inflation. Their economic growth will be heavily impacted. I fear many developing countries will see their external debt rise significantly. That is why I am pessimistic—this crisis stems not from energy itself, but from geopolitics.

Le Figaro asked: Which countries are most exposed to shortages?

Birol responded: Import-dependent countries are most exposed: in Asia—South Korea, Japan, but especially Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. African countries will also be heavily affected, as developing nations have limited financial flexibility.

Le Figaro asked: How quickly can Gulf production recover?

Birol responded: We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.

Le Figaro asked: How significant is the drop in Gulf oil production?

Birol responded: Enormous. These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a "black April." In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.

Birol has painted a bleak outlook for energy markets and the global economy for weeks in various interviews. 

However, emerging through the fog of war, the U.S. appears poised to be a net beneficiary of the chaos across the Gulf, with energy flows expected to remain disrupted for some time.

• Qatar Dethroned As 'LNG King' As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

• Wyoming's Helium Empire Ascends As Qatar Gas Goes Flat

A reminder to readers of JPMorgan's note last week, mapping how the energy shock dominoes begin to fall. Read it here.

* * *

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 06:25

These Consumer Goods Could Be First To Vanish As "Supply Shock" Disrupts Asian Factories

Goldman analysts warned that the petrochemical supply shock sweeping across Asia is now morphing into a full-blown COGS shock, hitting a range of industries with factories across the region. The immediate consequence is that manufacturers - from sofa makers to apparel producers - are being forced to dial back production and, in some cases, idle plants altogether as soaring petrochemical-linked input costs drive up the price of plastics and other key materials.

In the note "Petrochemical Supply Shock Begins Idling Asian Factories", we laid out earlier on Tuesday how the shock is unfolding.

Now, we focus on industries where the COGS shock is already forcing "surging input costs," which are reducing manufacturing lines or idling plants and leading to possible shortages.

"With key raw materials and inputs such as PTA, Caprolactam, polyester, and polyamide up on average 29%, the implied COGS increase amounts to c. +17%," Goldman analyst Georgina Fraser wrote in a note.

Fraser warned, "For a textile manufacturer operating with margins of ~5–15%, it is reasonable to assume that a cost shock of this magnitude could render operations uneconomic, leading to production standstills."

Fraser outlined that the industries most affected by the COGS shock are:

• Furniture & bedding → costs up ~21%

• Consumer goods → 20%

• Healthcare equipment → ~19%

• Textiles/apparel → ~17%

"Even an imminent end to the conflict would not fully unwind the supply chain disruption already in motion," she warned.

The note cited new indications that India's textile production has "collectively moved to restrict operations to a single 12-hour shift per day."

Taken together, the message is clear: supply-chain snarls may soon erupt across Asia (first outlined here). Reducing production lines and idling plants increases the risk of shortages across a broad range of Asian-produced consumer goods, from T-shirts to furniture.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 05:45

Berlin Targets Entrepreneurs: Apprenticeships, Punishment, And Social Decay

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German capital is hardly a hospitable place for entrepreneurs or founders. Ambitious individuals who aim to build a career outside the state subsidy system and establish their own livelihoods encounter, in this strangest of European capitals, an atmosphere of contempt and hostility.

Berlin politics, regardless of who is currently in power, fosters a culture of societal division. Parties spare no effort in masking the jointly caused economic and social distortions in the city with an endless media spectacle.

Unemployment rises—naturally, the entrepreneurs are blamed. Rents are unaffordable—it has, of course, nothing to do with open borders or mass immigration. Responsibility lies with the greed of landlords, who have elevated exploitation to their fundamental operating principle. In Berlin, apprenticeship positions are now scarce. Naturally, entrepreneurs are also blamed in this case. It could never be because politics, with its green ideological zeal, may have let the economy derail years ago.

To underline once again that Berlin is by no means willing to take responsibility for the visible crisis and instead prefers to put entrepreneurs in the pillory, the Berlin Senate has passed a corresponding law. Companies that fail to provide sufficient apprenticeship positions will be financially squeezed in the future.

Under the quaint title “Apprenticeship Promotion Fund Act” (AusbFFG), the all-knowing Berlin bureaucracy—yes, the same people who take six months to issue a new passport—will determine how many apprenticeship slots each company must offer.

The law was passed on March 26 and is set to take effect on January 1, 2028. Until then, the top economists and social-state engineers of the Red City Hall plan to complete the detailed calculations still required to determine the exact apprenticeship quota. The measure is based on each company’s gross wage sum.

In the eyes of typical Berlin socialists—and that includes all parties except the AfD—the economy is a monocausal monolith animated only by greed and profiteering, allowing the rule to be applied indiscriminately across all companies and sectors.

Naive, childish, maximally hostile: politics seeks conflict with entrepreneurs and investors because it knows that resentment in society always leaves a smoldering ember somewhere, which can be quickly fanned into a larger fire by the media. Berlin also knows very well that the country is heading for mass unemployment and that, should criticism or social unrest arise, a suitable lightning rod must always be at hand. Media-savvy tactics: debates on inheritance tax, the housing crisis, and the apprenticeship market are already being used to plant the narrative of the greedy failing entrepreneur in people’s minds.

It is shabby, socially destabilizing, but hardly surprising: socialist rot, indeed. This unreflective hatred, the agitation against the middle class and high achievers, forms socialism’s typical power source—resentment, cheap envy of others’ success. When this behavior is institutionalized in politics, it is a clear indicator of advanced societal and economic decay.

Berlin is long bankrupt. The neglect manifest across much of the city has become a visible hallmark of the unteachable nature of German socialists. Beyond Germany’s borders, one can study the societal decay of the country through its capital. A victim of Europe’s postmodern cultural rift, visible wherever open-border policies erode traditional cultural ferment, and where state bureaucracy thrives as the last line of defense for an impotent state apparatus that fears those whose social standing allows them to offer justified criticism of the visible rot in the community.

Certainly: the entrepreneurs, the self-employed, and investors are needed, only to have their financial resources extracted and the socialist experiment carried forward. That apprentices were chosen as vehicles for this plunder and media leverage comes as no surprise.

The political assault on entrepreneurs is now carried out on every possible level. The tighter the fiscal situation, the more aggressively politics lashes out. The logic is simple: those who do not follow the prescribed recipes and rules of politics—whether in training or emissions—are sanctioned. The complexity of the economy, differences in sectors, location, or individual businesses are ignored.

The gross wage sum becomes a moral metric, and the entrepreneur a prisoner of a political formula meticulously crafted in one of the countless party-state working groups.

Nowhere is this decay of German society more visible than in its parasitic capital, which hangs off the hinterland. The so-called Berlin political elite no longer claims to represent a societal engine of modernization and inspiration. Were it bold enough to present itself as a stabilizer of meritocratic values of performance and seriousness, it would be met only with biting mockery. Berlin remains Berlin, and its fundamental principle of rule is, quite Caesar-like: divida et impera—divide and rule, seek enemies that can be politically and media-wise exploited to distract from one’s own failures.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 05:00

Kraken Robotics Demos Next-Gen Tech For Maritime And Defense Operations

At a time when waterways like the Strait of Hormuz have occupied almost every headline and have been the impetus behind a good portion of the ongoing conflict in Iran, Kraken Robotics has successfully completed a new demonstration of its autonomous mine countermeasure technology, highlighting the growing role of unmanned systems in maritime security.

The company announced that its KATFISH towed synthetic aperture sonar system, along with its autonomous launch and recovery system (LARS), was fully integrated and tested aboard SEFINE’s RD-22 unmanned surface vessel. The demonstration was carried out in partnership with SEFINE SISAM, the company’s Strategic Unmanned Systems Research Center, during the first quarter of 2026 off the coast of İstanbul, Türkiye.

The trial showcased how autonomous platforms can be used to detect and classify underwater threats more efficiently. According to Kraken Robotics, the exercise focused on identifying mine-like objects and monitoring critical subsea infrastructure—capabilities that are becoming increasingly important as global attention turns to protecting maritime routes and underwater assets.

Bernard Mills, Kraken’s Executive Vice President of Defence, said the demonstration reflects the urgent need for advanced tools to secure key waterways. He noted that combining SEFINE’s multi-role unmanned surface vessel with Kraken’s sonar and launch system allows navies to deploy high-performance mine countermeasure technologies more quickly and with greater flexibility.

During the test, the KATFISH system delivered high-resolution sonar imagery with precision down to 3 by 3 centimeters, scanning areas up to 200 meters on each side. The data was transmitted live to an onshore command center, where operators used SEFINE SISAM’s mission planning software to analyze and classify potential threats in real time.

The event drew representatives from multiple navies and government organizations, underscoring international interest in next-generation autonomous defence systems.

This latest demonstration builds on earlier trials conducted in November 2025, when the same KATFISH and LARS setup was deployed from a Royal Navy ARCIMS unmanned surface vessel. Together, these successful integrations mark a significant step toward more agile, modular, and cost-effective solutions for modern mine countermeasure operations.

Kraken Robotics develops advanced subsea technologies, including 3D imaging sensors, robotic systems, and power solutions designed to operate safely and efficiently in challenging ocean environments. Its portfolio—featuring synthetic aperture sonar, sub-bottom imaging, LiDAR, and high-density pressure-tolerant batteries—supports applications in ocean safety, infrastructure inspection, and subsea energy storage.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 04:15

UK Schools Rake In Record £572 Million For Non-English Speaking Pupils

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Mass immigration is once again exposing the true cost to British taxpayers, with UK schools now receiving a record £572 million to support pupils who do not speak English as their first language.

The bill has soared by £157 million since modern records began in 2020, according to Department for Education figures. This comes as the number of such pupils has climbed to 1.8 million – one in five children nationwide – up from 1.2 million a decade ago.

As revealed in a Daily Mail report, two schools alone – one in Manchester and one in Northampton – each collected at least £500,000 this year for translators, bilingual teaching assistants and support materials. Manchester Academy topped the list with over £670,000.

Schools are pocketing up to £700,000 each to teach pupils who don't speak English as their first language as bill hits all-time high of £572million https://t.co/4CqpGL8bOG

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 4, 2026

The funding is not ring-fenced and councils admit it can be spent on “almost anything” within a school’s overall budget. Nationwide, the average payout sits at around £27,418 per school, or roughly £320 per eligible pupil.

This latest education bombshell ties directly into the wider crisis of unchecked migration straining every corner of British life.

As we’ve highlighted, migrants are set to swallow 40% of all new UK homes by 2030, based on Conservative analysis of Office for Budget Responsibility projections. 

With net migration forecast at 1.2 million between 2026 and 2030, around 500,000 extra homes will be needed just to house new arrivals – equating to nearly four in ten of all projected builds.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to taxpayer exploitation.

A whopping 1.3 million migrants are on Universal Credit, with over half unemployed – directly contradicting years of claims that immigration delivers a net economic boost.

Benefits costs have doubled in just five years, prompting Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to slam the prioritisation of migrant payouts over British pensioners.

A massive 1.158 million foreign claimants are draining public funds on an industrial scale

As we’ve further documented, small UK towns are finding themselves suddenly inundated with hundreds of illegal migrants and the social fallout is evident with foreigners accounting for 79 per cent of theft arrests and 40 per cent of violent suspects on UK trains, and migrants being 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sex crimes than native Brits.

Back in the classroom, the education funding surge has sparked sharp criticism. Chris McGovern of the Campaign for Real Education told the Daily Mail: “Stop pitying them, we obsess about it far too much and we don’t need to fret about them – we need to worry about the white working-class kids.”

He added: “Of course children who don’t have the requisite English language skills need to be assimilated and have time and money spent but that should come before they enter the school system.”

McGovern continued: “We have consistent and obvious annual evidence that it is the white working-class children who perform worse and need numeracy and literacy support, if there is money to be going around. A lack of imagination is the big problem with the educational world but however we tackle it we need to focus on the right group – don’t pity the immigrant, they are the education system’s biggest success story.”

Just one in five white working-class pupils achieve a good pass in English and maths, compared to 45.4 per cent across all demographics. Yet the system continues to pour resources into English as an Additional Language (EAL) provision, which now features in Ofsted inspections.

A Department for Education spokesman responded: “Every child deserves a high-quality education, including children who speak English as an additional language. We trust schools, who know their pupils best, to make decisions about how to invest their funding to support every child while getting the best value for money from overall resources.”

Critics argue the real priority should be British children whose communities are being transformed beyond recognition. The same open-borders policies driving the housing crunch, welfare explosion and crime spikes are now turning classrooms into translation hubs at massive public expense.

Britain cannot keep subsidising mass immigration while its own working-class children and struggling towns are pushed to the back of the queue. The numbers don’t lie – and neither do the consequences.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 03:30

Russia Ferries 175 Russian Nuclear Scientists Out Of Iran Via Land Border With Armenia

Russia has announced that it has successfully evacuated a last main group of Russian workers from Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which has been hit several times by US-Israeli strikes throughout the over one-month long war.

A group of 175 Russian employees of Rosatom Atomic Energy Corporation were evacuated via land route through northern Iran, before taking a flight out of the Armenian capital of Yerevan to Moscow.

Anadolu Agency

According to TASS, "Earlier, Alexey Likhachev, director general of Russia’s Rosatom Atomic Energy Corporation, said that evacuation buses left the Bushehr facility about 20 minutes after a US strike hit the area on Saturday, and headed for the Iran-Armenia border."

Moscow had requested that the US impose a ceasefire for the site while the Russian staff were evacuated. They were then driven to the Norduz-Agarak border crossing (a very long overland route). Already several rounds of Russians at Iran's nuclear facilities were taken out of the country.

Russia's foreign ministry thanked Armenian authorities "for their kind attitude and quick handling of exit procedures" for Rosatom personnel.

Apparently some key Russian personnel have agreed to stay at the facility. "Some of Rosatom’s personnel expressed readiness to continue working in Iran, Rosatom's Likhachev had said on Sunday. The first power unit of the Bushehr NPP remains operational, Rosatom has also said.

As for the requested local ceasefire for the site, it's unclear whether or not that was ever enacted. Israel has shown more of a penchant for hitting nuclear facilities in Iran of late.

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has also urged "maximum restraint" during the conflict in order to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident. 

Just like war in Ukraine has threatened nuclear power sites, so has the Iran conflict raised concerns over nuclear fallout and radiation - in the instance of a strike leading to major accident.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 02:45

Germany's 67-Point Climate Plan: Fatal Yet Highly Effective

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Travel is said to broaden the mind. At least, this wisdom applies to those willing to leave their routines behind and not stubbornly defend their claimed spot by the pool. In the case of Economics Minister Katharina Reiche, the “aha” moment arrived at breathtaking speed. She is currently traveling in North America, specifically in Ontario, Canada.

This week, the CDU politician toured the site of a so-called SMR, a small modular reactor. Apparently deeply impressed by the technology and the high efficiency of energy generation—which occurs almost emission-free and without waste—she came out on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference as a converted nuclear energy supporter.

As noted: travel broadens the mind. Little is known about the travel habits of her cabinet colleagues, yet it appears they prefer monotonous package trips over stimulating cultural journeys.

The contrast could hardly be greater:

Almost simultaneously, Environment Minister Carsten Schneider of the SPD presented a comprehensive set of measures to deepen the climate strategy. Schneider thereby proves that one can settle comfortably into a simulated pseudo-reality. Berlin mobilizes all resources to perpetuate the long-failed energy transition into the future. The return to nuclear power is not part of the plan.

German politics has become dysfunctional, having constructed an ideologically dystopian pseudo-world whose stimulus-response patterns are no longer causally connected to the surrounding environment.

The devastating signals from the German economy—the ongoing insolvencies and job cuts, clearly linked to the energy crisis and disastrous climate policies—are shielded from public scrutiny by political protective membranes.

It almost seems as if the Berlin Degrowth Club is actively wishing for deindustrialization to free up capacity for its own clientelist networks. The climate plan complements this green control ideology precisely.

An astounding 67 points make up this expanded action framework, designed to help Germany reach its target and cut CO2 emissions by 80% by 2030.

By then, Schneider must cut an additional 25 million tons of CO2 to meet the ambitious deindustrialization goals. Environmental groups find the plan far from sufficient, and their criticism was immediate.

The Thunberg faction of Fridays for Future appeared visibly dissatisfied with the minister’s presentation. The German Environmental Aid (DUH), always present when it comes to taxing German taxpayers and pushing entire industries over the cliff with an army of lawyers, voiced even sharper criticism.

It threatened to take the government to court if the 2030 climate target is not met.

The situation highlights the precarious position of the Federal Republic. By enshrining the Net-Zero target in the constitution, the party cartel has embedded a suicidal time bomb deep within the state’s foundations. DUH careerists now hold the fuse, using it as leverage to maximize Germany’s decline.

A battlefield, then, for the eco-socialist NGO complex, whose parliamentary arm, Green faction leader Katharina Dröge, called Schneider’s climate program a brazen deception. Apparently, more is never enough; Schneider nevertheless offered a lifeline for companies thriving on the endless subsidies of the green machinery.

The highly subsidized wind sector alone is set to expand by 2,000 additional large turbines by 2030. These are unmistakable signs of the green triumph, disfiguring the landscape with potentially enormous aesthetic losses.

In addition, the existing infrastructure of over 200,000 electric vehicle charging stations is set to be massively expanded with public funds. Nine million private parking spaces, Schneider notes, could be integrated into the EV network. Naturally, all funded by taxpayers.

The federal government is providing an additional €8 billion on top of existing subsidies, including purchase incentives for 800,000 EVs. Still not enough for the green subsidy hunters? The answer is likely a firm no.

The enormous green complex is accustomed to billions in subsidies. Criticism from environmental groups is therefore almost understandable—they crave ever higher doses.

That public budgets are rapidly deteriorating in the recession is irrelevant to these circles. In the heart of the saturated NGO complex and climate industry, there is plenty of excess—funded by the anonymous army of taxpayers, the very people met with maximum contempt.

Ignoring criticism from his own ranks, Schneider defends his program. It will supposedly deliver a boost to climate protection and reduce dependence on expensive and unreliable oil and gas imports. The plan is projected to save seven billion cubic meters of natural gas and roughly four billion liters of gasoline annually.

If policymakers stick to Agenda 2030, no additional measures will be needed. Fuel, heating, and vacations will become luxury goods in an increasingly pauperized society, with consumption naturally declining. One can rightly say: the climate agenda works. It is fatal, yet highly effective.

Geopolitical strategy, ecological ambition, and energy efficiency merge in Berlin’s fantasy world into yet another guillotine descending on the German middle class.

According to the Environment Ministry, the plan serves multiple purposes. It is meant to pacify the militant NGO complex, pushing for faster industrial destruction, while Berlin naively assumes the majority of Germans still do not see through the political camouflage behind the CO2 narrative. Thus, officials are convinced that by preaching a fusion of ecology and economy, they can deliver a small economic miracle.

Finally, it should be noted: The CO2 saved in Germany will immediately contribute to dirtier industrial production elsewhere, yet the Berlin climate clan does not care. In the land of unlimited green subsidies, the extraction machine runs at full speed, and the chancellor was wrong to claim the lemon had been fully squeezed. Germany is only at the beginning.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 02:00

War Unicorn Hermeus Raises $350 Million For Unmanned Supersonic Fighter Jets

Atlanta-based aerospace startup Hermeus Corp. has secured $350 million in a funding round that values the builder of uncrewed supersonic and hypersonic fighters at north of $1 billion, according to a Bloomberg report.

Today we’re announcing a $350 million Series C financing led by @khoslaventures, bringing us to a $1B valuation.

Our mission is straightforward: build today’s fastest aircraft for the American Warfighter. The concept is simple but the task is monumental.

We still have so much… pic.twitter.com/60YSZ3Qpxh

— Hermeus (@hermeuscorp) April 7, 2026

Bloomberg reports that the company will use the proceeds from the latest funding round to build two more supersonic jets, called "Quarterhorse," and to expand manufacturing as it works on an uncrewed aircraft designed to fly at Mach 3 or faster.

Meet Quarterhorse Mk 2.1: an F-16-sized jet built to break the sound barrier.

It’s the first of three jets in the Mk 2 lineup. Instead of waiting years between tests, we build and fly them in rapid succession. Real data from one flight feeds directly into the next, letting us… pic.twitter.com/g6qA07QbrS

— Hermeus (@hermeuscorp) February 24, 2026

The company is also working on a hypersonic uncrewed jet called "Darkhorse."

DARKHORSE: Radically Accelerate Air Power

Hypersonic aircraft represent a major step change in defense capabilities, bringing unprecedented responsiveness and survivability to the United States and our allied partners.

[ Video: Artist’s Conception ] pic.twitter.com/dpY5KSBbC7

— Hermeus (@hermeuscorp) January 18, 2024

The round was led by Khosla Ventures and included investors such as Founders Fund, Canaan Partners, RTX Ventures, and In-Q-Tel. The company says it has now raised more than $500 million in total and is valued at $1 billion.

Hermeus says the aircraft is designed to deliver fighter-jet-level payload capacity in a cheaper, unmanned platform for defense use.

Founded in 2018, Hermeus is part of the rising class of startups in the defense space that we have called "war unicorns," as the Department of War resets the procurement process and focuses on funding a new era of defense startups rather than bloated legacy defense primes that are highly skilled at squandering taxpayer funds.

Vinod Khosla, the founder of Khosla Ventures, told the outlet, "The US is very far behind anything in Russia or China on hypersonic flight and weapons. So it becomes imperative that we have a strategy, and that's what Hermeus is doing."

Hermeus is trying to close the gap in hypersonic aviation as the US remains behind Russia and China. The US is still in the testing phase of hypersonic weapons, while Russia and China have already fielded such weapons.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 23:00

US Scientists Crack Superconductor Code - Zero Energy Loss Moves Closer To Reality

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

Researchers in the United States have unlocked secrets of high-temperature superconductors.

Small differences in how atoms are arranged in a crystalline lattice can strongly affect superconductivity. (Representational image) Wildpixel/Charles

Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory have discovered how tiny changes in superhydride structure enable superconductivity at near room temperatures but extreme pressure - offering clues for designing more practical superconductors.

“These experiments show what the upgraded APS can do. We can now study atomic-level structures with unprecedented detail in materials under extreme pressure,” said Maddury Somayazulu, Argonne physicist.

Superconductors allow electricity to flow without resistance

Researchers revealed that superconductors allow electricity to flow without resistance, meaning no energy is lost as heat. This property makes them useful for technologies such as MRI scanners, particle accelerators, magnetic-levitation trains and some power-transmission systems.

They also highlighted that most superconductors, however, only work at extremely low temperatures - often hundreds of degrees below zero Fahrenheit. Keeping materials that cold requires complex and costly cooling systems, which limits where the superconductors can be used.

Now, researchers in the U.S. have helped take a step toward easing that limitation. They have gained new insight into a class of materials called superhydrides that can become superconducting at much higher temperatures - around 10 degrees Fahrenheit.

In the new study, Hemley and his fellow researchers explored whether changing the material’s chemistry could lower the pressure needed for superconductivity. They added a small amount of yttrium to the lanthanum superhydride to make it more stable and reduce the pressure required.

“To reach these extreme pressures, we squeezed a tiny sample between two diamonds,” said Maddury Somayazulu, a physicist at the APS. The team’s diamond-anvil device can generate pressures as high as five million atmospheres.

Forming superconducting material at high pressure and temperature

After forming the superconducting material at high pressure and temperature, the team used high-energy X-rays from the APS to study its structure (at beamlines 16-ID-B and 13-ID-D).

​”We focused an intense X-ray beam onto a sample only a few micrometers thick and about ten to twenty micrometers across,” said Vitali Prakapenka, a beamline scientist and research professor at the University of Chicago. One micrometer is about 1/70th the width of a human hair.

The recent APS upgrade made these measurements possible. Its brighter, more tightly focused X-ray beam allowed researchers to study extremely small samples while changing the pressure, according to a press release. ​

“That beam allowed us to separate signals coming from the tiny sample itself as opposed to those coming from the surrounding materials and diamond anvils,” Prakapenka said.

The team found that small differences in how atoms are arranged in a crystalline lattice can strongly affect superconductivity. They identified two different crystal structures, each becoming superconducting at a slightly different temperature, as per the release.

“These experiments show what the upgraded APS can do,” Somayazulu said. ​”We can now study atomic-level structures with unprecedented detail in materials under extreme pressure.”

Researchers also highlighted that although the pressures used in the experiments are still very high — about 1.4 million times atmospheric pressure — the researchers see this as part of a longer path forward. They are adding more elements to lower the pressure further with the goal of making these materials practical.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 22:35

As Los Angeles Hits "Breaking Point" Population Exodus, Houston's GDP Rockets Higher

California - which spends nearly 40% of taxpayer revenue ($95.5 billion, not including federal funds) on social services that's rife with  fraud - and which spends roughly 25% of its $95.5 billion Medi-Cal budget (free healthcare) on illegal immigrants, is in the midst of a massive population exodus due to housing affordability, crime, taxes, wildfires, parental rights, and homelessness. 

And while San Francisco and Los Angeles compete for the biggest cesspool in the country, LA county just took the crown when it comes to population loss.

According to the latest US Census data, Los Angeles county lost over 53,000 residents - marking the largest decline in any US city between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 - while the overall population loss from 2020 to today is roughly 300,000 people.

"There is a real sense of burnout. They are paying insane taxes and getting absolutely nothing in return," according to real estate developer Robert Rivani in a comment to Fox Business. "People feel like they’re living in a place that’s draining them financially and in exchange they’re dealing with rising crime, shrinking services, and a sense that everyone around them is trying to leave too." 

"It isn’t just one factor, it’s the breaking point phenomenon. The taxes, the lack of safety, the red tape," Compass Real Estate agent Chad Carroll told the outlet. "I have a client from California whose home was broken into twice in the past six months. The whole political landscape there is destroying the state."

"These are individuals who have spent their lives building businesses and wealth," he added, "and they feel that California has become a place that takes everything and gives back very little in terms of safety, infrastructure and opportunity."

Houston We Have The Opposite Of A Problem

Meanwhile, Houston is undergoing a transformation. Not only can you actually get homeowner's insurance (13% of realtors said they've had at least one home fall out of escrow because a buyer couldn't find insurance), 

Let's compare to Los Angeles: 

• Housing Affordability & High Cost of Living: LA housing is 2.5–3× more expensive than Houston (median ~$900k+ vs ~$340k).
• High Taxes: Houston has no state income tax. Los Angeles has a top rate of 13.3%.
• Crime, Homelessness & Public Safety: Houston has far lower homelessness (~14× lower rate) and better recent crime trends.
• Parental Rights & Education Policies: Houston/Texas has stronger parental notification and consent laws.
• Wildfires, Natural Disasters & Insurance Crisis: Los Angeles faces severe wildfire insurance non-renewals and premium spikes. Houston does not.
• Jobs, Wages & Economic Opportunity: Houston has stronger job growth and better cost-of-living-adjusted wages.
• Traffic, Congestion & Infrastructure: Los Angeles has significantly worse traffic (83 vs 56 hours lost per year).
• Broader Quality-of-Life: Houston has lighter regulations, faster permitting, and lower energy costs.

About that job growth: Houston real estate experts @Houstonomics just revealed that Houston became the 6th largest metro economy in 2024 (most recent data), and became the second fastest growing city out of the country's 20 largest metro economies. 

In a Saturday post on X (via Capital.news), they note: The numbers are in, and they demand attention.

Metro Houston's GDP hit $758.3 billion in 2024, crossing three-quarters of a trillion dollars in real, inflation-adjusted terms for the first time on record. That makes Houston the 6th largest metro economy in the United States, ahead of Washington D.C. and closing in fast on the cities above it.

But the size of the number is not the real story. The velocity is.

Houston grew at 4.1% in 2024, nearly double the national rate of 2.8%. Over the prior two years, only Seattle grew faster among the 20 largest metro economies. In absolute dollar terms, Houston added $72.6 billion in output, second only to New York City. That is not an oil town riding a commodity cycle. That is a diversified industrial powerhouse firing on all cylinders.

The conventional wisdom about Houston has always centered on energy. And yes, energy is still woven into the fabric of this city. But oil and gas extraction has fallen from 7.7% of GDP in 2014 to just 3.8% today, even as total output has grown. The city has not abandoned energy. It has grown everything else around it faster.

Manufacturing tells that story best. Houston produced $126.9 billion in manufactured goods in 2024, leading every metro in the country for the third straight year. More than Los Angeles. More than Chicago. More than double Detroit. Recent project announcements from Foxconn, Eli Lilly, and Tesla signal that this base is expanding well beyond its petrochemical roots.

Worker productivity reinforces the picture. The average Houston worker generates $221,000 in economic output per year, nearly 19% above the national average. That figure has risen 11.1% since 2019, outpacing the 7.9% national gain. Houston achieves this not through a narrow concentration of tech billionaires, but through the rare combination of skilled blue-collar workers and world-class industrial capital operating at scale.

Then there is trade. Nearly one in four dollars produced in Houston gets exported to global markets. No other major metro comes close. Dallas and Chicago export roughly 6% of their output. Houston exports 24%. The Port of Houston connects this industrial base to the world, and the world keeps buying.

The investment community is paying attention. In 2025, the Greater Houston Partnership recorded 683 new business announcements, a 26.5% increase over the prior year. Of the 683 announcements tracked in ’25:

• 35 disclosed employment figures totaling 14,834 new jobs.

• 42 reported $10.5B in capital investment.

• 665 disclosed 602.8M SF in space occupancy.

Of those, 117 came from foreign-owned firms, the highest volume on record. Companies from around the world are choosing Houston not as a backup plan, but as a primary destination.

The Purchasing Managers Index has shown continuous expansion for 68 consecutive months. Vehicle sales hit an all-time regional record. Sales tax revenues rose 5.9% in 2025, even after adjusting for inflation. The macro data and the street-level data are telling the same story.

Houston is not having a moment. It is building a permanent position at the top tier of American economic geography. The city that the coastal consensus once dismissed as a boom-bust energy town has quietly become one of the most productive, most export-oriented, most globally connected industrial economies on the planet.

The data is out. The question is whether the rest of the country is paying attention.

Data sourced from the Greater Houston Partnership, "Houston:The Economy at a Glance," March 2026.

It is in population growth. Wait until Elon Musk gets that Chip plant up and running. https://t.co/Fnt8u9v7aW

— Houstonomics (@Houstonomics) April 4, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 22:10

Why Military Bases Should Never Have Been Gun-Free Zones

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

It may sound hard to believe, but except for a very limited group of personnel, the military has treated its bases as gun-free zones. Until Thursday, only designated security forces – such as military police – could carry firearms while on duty. Commanders punished any other soldier caught carrying a weapon severely, with penalties ranging from rank reduction and forfeiture of pay to court-martial, dishonorable discharge, criminal conviction, and even imprisonment.

That changed with a statement from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

“Before today, it was virtually impossible. Most people probably don’t know this. It is virtually impossible for War Department personnel to get permission to carry and store their own personal weapons aligned with state laws where we operate our installations. I mean effectively our bases are gun-free zones unless you’re training or unless you are a military policeman.”

Consider the attacks at Holloman Air Force Base (2026), Fort Stewart (2025), Naval Air Station Pensacola (2019), the Chattanooga recruiting station (2015), both Fort Hood shootings (2014 and 2009), and Navy Yard (2013). Across these attacks, 24 people were murdered and 38 wounded. In each case, unarmed personnel – including JAG officers, Marines, and soldiers – had to hide while the attacker continued firing.

Yet when the military deployed U.S. troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, it required them to carry their weapons at all times – even on base. Those soldiers needed to defend themselves against real threats, and there are no known cases of them turning those weapons on each other. The policy worked. Soldiers carried firearms without creating internal violence.

So why make it easier for attackers to target troops at home? Why force soldiers – like those at Fort Stewart – to confront armed attackers with their bare hands?

It wasn’t always this way. In 1992, the George H.W. Bush administration started reshaping the military into a more “professional, business-like environment.” That shift led to tighter restrictions on firearms. In 1993, President Clinton rewrote and implemented those restrictions, effectively banning soldiers from carrying personal firearms on base.

If civilians can be trusted to carry firearms, military personnel certainly can. As Hegseth noted, “Uniformed service members are trained at the highest and unwavering standards.”

Why would a soldier risk such severe penalties? Because those penalties do not deter attackers. Someone planning to murder fellow soldiers will not stop because of gun laws. Most mass attackers expect to die during the assault, so the threat of additional punishment carries no weight. Even if they survive, they already face multiple life sentences or the death penalty.

But those same rules weigh heavily on law-abiding soldiers. A soldier who carries a firearm for self-defense risks becoming a felon and destroying his or her future. These policies disarm the innocent while signaling to a determined attacker that no one else will be armed.

Military police guard base entrances, but like civilian police, they cannot be everywhere. Military bases function like cities, and MPs face the same limitations as police responding to mass shootings off base.

Uniformed officers are easy to identify, and that gives attackers a real tactical advantage. Attackers can wait for an officer to leave the area or move on to another target – either choice reduces the chance that an officer will be present to stop the attack. And if the attacker strikes anyway, whom do you think they target first?

Research shows that civilians with concealed handgun permits are more likely to stop active shooting attacks. By contrast, although police stop fewer attacks, attackers kill them at much higher rates – police are twelve times more likely to be killed.

After the second Fort Hood terrorist attack, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley – then commander of Thirds Corps at that base – testified to Congress: “We have adequate law enforcement on those bases to respond … those police responded within eight minutes and that guy was dead.” But those eight minutes proved far too long for the three soldiers who were murdered and the 12 others who were wounded.

Time after time, murderers exploit regulations that guarantee they’ll face no armed resistance. Diaries and manifestos of mass public shooters show a chilling trend: They deliberately choose gun-free zones, knowing their victims can’t fight back. While we don’t yet know if the Fort Stewart shooter made that same calculation, his actions fit a pattern seen in dozens of other cases. It’s no coincidence that 93% of mass public shootings happen in places where guns are banned.

Ironically, soldiers with a concealed handgun permit can carry a concealed handgun whenever they are off base so that they can protect themselves and others. But on the base, they and their fellow soldiers had been defenseless. Fortunately, that has all now changed.

Allowing trained service members to carry on base restores a basic ability to defend themselves and others when seconds matter most. Policies that disarm the very people we trust in combat do not enhance safety – they leave our troops unnecessarily vulnerable where they should be most secure.

John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 21:45

Living In Any New York Borough Now Requires A Six Figure Income

Living in New York City without financial assistance now requires a six-figure income in every borough, according to Bloomberg.

The Fund for the City of New York’s latest “self-sufficiency standard” shows that in 2026, a family of four with two school-age children needs about $133,000 a year to cover basic expenses without outside help. Still, 46% of households fall short of that level.

A separate report from Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s office found that economic strain is even more widespread. In 2022, more than 5 million residents—62% of the population—were unable to both meet essential costs and save for emergencies. For families with children, the median income required rises to $159,197.

Together, the findings point to a deepening affordability crisis. Mamdani has proposed measures such as free universal childcare, fare-free buses, and rent freezes to ease the burden. He also noted that Black and Latino communities are disproportionately affected.

Costs have surged dramatically over time. In the Bronx, a two-parent household with two children now needs about $125,814 annually—up 162% from 2000. In Northwest Brooklyn, that figure reaches roughly $154,000, more than triple the borough’s earlier benchmark. Every borough has seen similar triple-digit increases.

Having children significantly raises expenses. Nearly half of married couples with kids earn below what they need, while households with two adults and no children were the only group consistently meeting costs in 2022.

Bloomberg writes that the impact is especially severe for younger residents. About 1.2 million children—73% of those under 18—live in families below the true cost-of-living threshold. Rising expenses have also driven families out: the number of children under five dropped 18% between 2020 and 2024.

Single parents face the greatest financial pressure. In 2022, 84% of those with one child fell short of the income needed to get by, rising to 94% for two children and 99% for three.

Recall, Zero Hedge contributor Quoth the Raven recently wrote about exactly how Mamdani's "tax fantasy" has already failed elsewhere in the United States. Now it looks like it's failing in New York. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 21:20

Education Department Ditches Title IX Agreements That Pushed 'Transgender Agenda' In Multiple Schools

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Education announced April 6 that it rescinded agreements between previous administrations and multiple school districts that aimed to enforce civil rights laws with regard to students who identify as transgender.

The Department of Education building in Washington on Nov. 18, 2024. Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo

Previous administrations had distorted the law to police discrimination based on gender identity, instead of sex, for which it was intended, saddling schools with potential violations of Title IX for not using students’ preferred pronouns or questioning a student’s preferred gender, the department said in a news release.

“Today, the Trump Administration is removing the unnecessary and unlawful burdens that prior Administrations imposed on schools in [their] relentless pursuit of a radical transgender agenda,” Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights Kimberly Richey said in the news release.

Resolution agreements are used by the Education Department’s Office of Civil Rights to require schools to enforce compliance with federal civil rights laws such as Title IX, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in any school, program, or activity that receives federal funding.

With the termination of the agreements—made with the Cape Henlopen School District in Delaware; Delaware Valley School District in Pennsylvania; Fife School District in Washington state; and La Mesa-Spring Valley School District, Sacramento City Unified, and Taft College in California—the Education Department will no longer play a role in policing discrimination on gender identity.

The resolutions with those schools were based on ideologically driven, illegal, and heavy-handed manipulations of Title IX under previous administrations, the news release stated.

“While prior Admins distorted Title IX to pander to political ideology and police ‘misgendering,' we’re investigating allegations of girls injured by men on their sports team or feeling violated by men in their intimate spaces,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon wrote in a post on X.

Monday’s decision to terminate the agreements is another step in protecting students and restoring common sense, Richey added in the news release.

In 2024, the Biden administration expanded the scope of Title IX to enforce discrimination based on gender identity. A federal court in January 2025 found that change to be illegal.

Once President Donald Trump took office for his second term in January 2025, he returned to enforcing his first administration’s enforcement of Title IX on the basis of sex.

The Trump administration has filed lawsuits against California, Oregon, and Minnesota over the states’ policies on transgender students, including those allowing transgender-identifying male students to participate in women’s sports and to access women’s locker rooms.

Investigations were also opened against other states, such as New Jersey, over concerns that boys are being allowed to use girls’ restrooms and locker rooms.

“Young women should not have to sacrifice their rights to compete for scholarships, opportunities, and awards on the altar of woke gender ideology,” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon previously said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 20:55