Individual Economists

Iran War Until 2029? Vance, Rubio Privately Warn Trump It Could Drag Through End Of His Term

Zero Hedge -

Iran War Until 2029? Vance, Rubio Privately Warn Trump It Could Drag Through End Of His Term

President Trump on Wednesday told reporters to expect more US attacks on Iranian tankers, as the war over the Hormuz Strait continues to escalate in piecemeal tit-for-tat fashion. 

"The attacks are made by us. We’ve knocked out nine of their ships. I would say that the attacks are caused by us, and you’re going to see a lot more," the president told reporters on Wednesday, adding that many of the Iranian tankers are "donezo" - as global oil prices continue to climb.

The region has now seen over six months of war since Trump launched an operation that he and White House officials at first suggested would just be 'days' - and then insisted (repeatedly) would be a 'four to six week' campaign

via The Associated Press

All along the White House has kept moving the goal posts, amid lack of overall strategic vision and failure to articulate what exactly enough of a 'victory' to establish a military exit would look like.

Speaking of drastically moving the goal post, the below was another key media exchange with Trump on Wednesday: 

Q: Do you expect negotiations with Iran to restart at some point?

Trump: Uhhhhhh... we're not looking for it to be honest with you. This war will end immediately after our election.

This as The Wall Street Journal has issued a report saying Trump's top advisors are now warning him that the Iran conflict could last through the rest of his term.

Trump has called it 'small potatoes' - but he may now have his very own forever war...

Top White House advisers have raised privately with President Trump the prospect that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, U.S. officials said, a message at odds with Trump’s public assurances of a swift victory.

In the Oval Office and Situation Room, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have discussed with the president that Tehran could continue to resist U.S. pressure under the blockade and other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029, the officials said.

...oh to have been a fly on the wall during that little meeting.

According to more snippets from the WSJ report:

The closed-door discussions come as Trump told reporters Wednesday that the war will end “immediately” after the midterm elections in November “because they can’t hold out any longer.”  

...Trump often speaks privately with aides of his desire for a quick resolution to the war, which is in its seventh month and has killed 18 servicemembers, the officials said. But Trump also supports a long-term economic siege, using a naval blockade and sanctions in a bid to force the regime to dismantle its nuclear program. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has portrayed the new strategy—dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”—as an alternative to major combat operations.

Iran has been touting that it is ready to endure and survive at any cost while this week vowing 'disproportionate' responses to any military aggression from the United States.

IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated Wednesday, "We have reached a point where if the enemy strikes at 2 or 3 of our targets, we will respond forcefully by striking at 20."

Back in mid-March, at a moment Trump officials were still claiming Operation Epic Fury would be swift and effective, US intelligence at the time assessed that Iran's leadership and government are largely in tact and the system does not risk collapse.

And now, half a year into the war, the exact same can be said. Even the establishment CFR's Foreign Affairs makes the case for a conservative realism contra Bessent's forecasts in Why America Can’t Strangle Iran:

But even as the country’s economic situation is getting worse, Iran’s leadership remains better able to resist the coercive effects of sanctions than it might appear. The state of the economy is not yet impinging on Iran’s ability to wage war. Stockpiles of various goods remain deep, thanks to years of sanctions experience. And the Iranian state, with its powerful repressive tools, has figured out how to offload much of the economic pain onto ordinary Iranians while making sure its own needs are met. Trump’s approach, in other words, can certainly immiserate most of the country’s people. But it cannot successfully strangle the Islamic Republic itself.

One pundit has accurately described the state of play which defines Iran's existential survival posture, pointing out"Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore.So 'winning' for Iran looks much different, compared to US objectives.

But at a moment that Iran's ballistic missile capability is still obviously very much intact - given that just this very week US bases in Jordan were targeted in a huge volley - White House official statements have a Baghdad Bob flavor to them...

"President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions," White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. "Only President Trump knows what he will do and when." Ok, sure.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:45

Wall Street Responds To Apple's Foldable iPhone As Margin Risks Cloud Launch

Zero Hedge -

Wall Street Responds To Apple's Foldable iPhone As Margin Risks Cloud Launch

Apple revealed its new foldable iPhone on Wednesday afternoon, and Wall Street analysts were largely positive about the specs and demand outlook. However, enthusiasm for the device diminished by mounting concerns that restrained price hikes across the iPhone lineup could pressure hardware margins.

Apple shares are up 1% in premarket trading in New York and about 1.6% higher since the unveiling of the new foldable iPhone and iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The new foldable iPhone starts around $2,000, with the premium model costing up to $3,199.

Did Apple learn anything from the failed launch of the $3,500 Vision Pro?

The question floating around multiple Wall Street desks overnight and into Thursday morning is how much of that foldable iPhone and new lineup demand translates into profit.

Jefferies analysts, who maintain an underperform rating and a $263.66 12-month price target, said Apple appears focused on boosting volumes at the expense of margins. Unchanged pricing for the iPhone 17 and Air could support demand while pressuring profitability.

TD Cowen, which rates Apple a "Buy" with a $400 price target, similarly warned that modest price increases could create hardware gross-margin headwinds. The analysts highlighted the new 2-nanometer chip's doubling of AI speed.

"Price increases were modest, which aids affordability, but hardware GM could face more headwinds in the coming year," TD Cowen analysts said.

Vital Knowledge analysts noted, "Duo is a very 'cool' device, with a competitive price point, but it remains to be seen whether Apple can manufacture enough of them to meet demand."

Here is Citi analyst Atif Malik's first take on iPhone Duo:

Apple launched a new foldable product cycle Duo under the new CEO John Ternus today. With a 7.6" inner display and a more iPad-like multi tasking experience, Duo is the biggest new hardware category since Apple Watch/Airpods. 

The launch of the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max (no standard iPhone 18) and the starting price of $1,999 on Duo shows Apple's iPhone line up is heavily skewed towards premium devices this fall.

Moreover, Apple repriced the IP16/IP17 portfolio by ~$100 with bigger ~$300 increase on higher 1TB storage tier we believe to offset higher memory component prices. Overall, IP18 specs, foldable ASP are in-line and IP18 ASPs below our ~$200 preview. Net-net, with price increase on the older iPhones, we maintain our model and gross margin assumptions. New Siri AI is the most important software announcement as Apple moves from AI features towards AI agent integrated into iOS27. Maintain Buy $365 TP.

Bernstein's Mark Newman asked clients, "What about gross margins?"

Newman explained:

Yesterday Apple held its Surprise and Shine product release, this note summarizes the products announced including specs and prices and potential impact to gross margins.

The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max deliver meaningful improvements with smaller price increase than expected at entry storage levels. Among the improvements, most interesting was the 2nm A20 processor and packaging enabling up to 40% higher sustained performance. The 48 MP main camera with variable aperture and significantly improved battery life (with faster charging) were the other notable improvements. Most interesting though was the price - up only $100 (or 7-8%) on entry 18 Pro and Pro Max models, which was less severe than feared and less than what we've seen from Android competitors. At higher storage tiers though the price increase was more substantial (with 18 Pro Max 2TB at $2,499 up $500 vs. comparable 17 Pro Max).

The well anticipated "Surprise" was the iPhone Duo - Apple's first foldable phone, which didn't disappoint. Unlike most competitor Android offerings, the Duo opens out to an aspect ratio similar to what we're used to with an iPad, which should make it more intuitive and useful for watching movies or have windows side by side. Starting price of $1,999 (for the 256GB option) was also lower than feared and considering this potentially replaces a high-end iPhone and an iPad (at $1000+ each), we believe this price is competitive, but ramps up to a whopping $3,199 for 2TB.

Apple is making steady progress on AI, with the potential to monetize. Apple Intelligence runs on-device whenever possible, with more computationally demanding requests are handled through Private Cloud Compute. Some capabilities that rely on the server models will have usage limits, with increased access available through iCloud+ plans - the first signs of AI monetization.

In addition to price increases on new models, Apple bucked its trend of discounting older models by $100 and actually increased prices of older models by $100 - effectively a $200 price move. This combined with the staggered launch should reduce gross margin impact from rising memory costs.

Our analysis shows that like for like 18 Pro / Pro Max models will have significantly worse gross margins than comparable 17 Pro / Pro Max models. Entry models will see over 1000bps of gross margin dilution, and on average 14% lower gross profit $/unit. However, the iPhone Duo, increased price of older models and staggered launch should reduce this gross margin impact.

While we like the new product releases and believe gross margin hit may not be as bad as feared, there continues to be much uncertainty on new level of gross margins with today's elevated memory prices. On the other-hand, these lower price increases on entry models should help Apple continue to gain market share over Android rivals. We rate Apple Outperform, PT $370, but worry that the stock may not work until December quarter guide is behind us (in late October).

Goldman analyst Michael Ng's first take:

During Apple's Special Event "Surprise and Shine" on September 9th, 2026, AAPL announced its new iPhone lineup (Foldable iPhone Duo, 18 Pro, and 18 Pro Max), updated Apple Watches (Series 12 and Ultra 4), and AirPods 5.

Overall, key product feature announcements (debut of a foldable form factor model, Touch ID to open on the iPhone Duo, new A20-series chips, and rear-camera systems) were largely as expected, and should drive continued strength in device demand.

Furthermore, AAPL's decision to bifurcate the iPhone 18 model launches with lower-end models expected (by us) in Spring 2027 should support continued iPhone ASP growth amidst ongoing device premiumization, further supported by explicit $100 price increases for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max and the addition of a new premium 2 TB storage option for the iPhone 18 Pro.

We view this favorable price/mix from premium products as supportive of upside to revenue, which should partially mitigate margin headwinds.

Importantly, Apple's new Apple Upgrade program & attractive carrier promotions (Free/$99 iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max with eligible trade-in and plan) should support affordability against +$100 price increases. Additionally, as expected, AAPL announced new Apple Watch products (Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4) and new AirPods 5. All iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models will be available for pre-order in over 63 countries and regions on Saturday, September 12th with availability beginning Friday, September 18th, while the iPhone Duo will be available for pre-order on Friday, October 16th with availability beginning Friday, October 23rd

Apple shares initially fell as Wednesday afternoon's launch event began around 1 p.m. ET, then reversed course and rallied 3% from the session low.

For new CEO John Ternus, the foldable iPhone's roughly $2,000 to $3,200 price tag sets up a major test of Apple's pricing power and ability to scale production. Strong demand could lift revenue and shift sales toward premium devices, but soaring memory costs coupled with modest price hikes could threaten margins, according to warnings on Wall Street desks

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:15

"Bulletproofing The Hemisphere": Rubio Kicks Off South America Tour As Continent Lurches Right

Zero Hedge -

"Bulletproofing The Hemisphere": Rubio Kicks Off South America Tour As Continent Lurches Right

Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off his three-nation tour of Latin America on Tuesday, first meeting with Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella. He will visit Ecuador and Peru later this week, supporting the Trump administration's increasing engagement with a growing bloc of right-leaning governments aligned with the US.

At their meeting in the coastal city of Barranquilla, de la Espriella said he and Rubio discussed security cooperation against drug trafficking, improved economic ties and an expanded role for Colombia in what he called "bulletproofing the hemisphere." He said Colombia would be an ally to the US on neighboring Venezuela.

"Colombia wants to newly consolidate itself as the principal hemispheric partner for the United States on security," said de la Espriella, who took office on August 7 after beating former socialist President Gustavo Petro.  

De la Espriella is among a new generation of right-wing leaders recently elected across South America, reflecting a once-in-a-generation political shift likely influenced by the Trump administration's effort to rid the West of socialist and Chinese influence.

Rubio said the White House hoped to restore cooperation and "perhaps to build upon it," adding, "And I think you have a president here now that is very interested in making that happen." 

Rubio's next stop on the tour is Ecuador and Peru, whose governments are also aligned with the Trump administration. 

Rubio's tour comes a little more than a week after President Trump secured the "biggest oil deal in history" with Venezuela, resulting in a major stake in more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves. 

The oil fields are "going to generate royalties and revenues for the Venezuelan people, eventually through a democratically elected government, hopefully sooner rather than later, and directly benefit the people of Venezuela as opposed to going into the pocket of some, you know, corrupt government official or in the hands of American and Venezuelan adversaries," Rubio said.

Brazil holds its first-round presidential election on October 4. If needed, a presidential runoff can be held on October 25. Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the latest polls, although those leads fall within the surveys' margins of error. Other polls show the two tied.

The election will determine the leadership and direction of the continent's largest economy. 

Traders are already positioning ahead of the Brazilian election, as we showed on Monday with an "explosive surge" in call open interest in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ).

Regional ETF outperformers include Peru, up 31%; Brazil, up 20.5%; and Latin America 40, up 19.9%.

These ETFs are beginning to attract buying interest heading into late summer.

Brazil's election is now a key focus for investors, with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) gauging market positioning ahead of the vote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 09:00

Watch: Prosecutor Claims It's 'Wrong, But Not Illegal' To Jerk-Off In Front Of Kids

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Prosecutor Claims It's 'Wrong, But Not Illegal' To Jerk-Off In Front Of Kids

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A Soros-backed Florida prosecutor told the public that a man pleasuring himself on a park bench in front of children was "wrong," then insisted it is not a crime.

Ninth Judicial Circuit State Attorney Monique Worrell used a press conference to defend her office's refusal to charge Kevin Chapman, 61, after his arrest at Kit Land Nelson Park in Apopka.

A father and his two-year-old were at the splash pad. Witnesses, park staff, photos and video put Chapman on a bench with his hand in his shorts, facing the children, for minutes. The park manager said his shorts dropped when he stood up.

"All things that are wrong are not illegal, and I'm not standing before you today telling you that what happened in that park was wrong," said the prosecutor, adding "But I am standing before you today telling you that I trust the word of the attorney who was assigned to this case when he said, although those actions were wrong, he could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they were illegal."

Florida law is not a riddle. Section 800.04(7) makes it a second-degree felony for an adult to intentionally masturbate, expose genitals in a lewd manner, or commit another sexual act without contact in the presence of a child under 16.

That is up to 15 years.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier put it in a formal letter: her office not only skipped pretrial detention, it declined to charge him at all and called the case "not suitable for prosecution."

"Central Florida deserves better than a state attorney who prioritizes the guilty over protecting the innocent," Uthmeier said. "She gave this guy a free walk in the park, and now other kids are in jeopardy of having a tragic incident happen to them."

Worrell's counter was that the toddler supposedly did not clock what was happening, and that no other adult saw the genitals clearly enough. In other words, a man can sit in a children's park and finish the job so long as the two-year-old is too young to give a courtroom speech about it.

She then turned the argument into a grievance about Gov. Ron DeSantis, who suspended her in 2023 for dereliction of duty. Voters put her back. The children at the splash pad did not get a vote.

"It is clear that the underlying intention here is to unjustly remove me from office, yet again," she said. Of Uthmeier: "He struts and shouts as if volume can mask ignorance, but all he's proven is that he's a punchline in a job that demands serious leadership."

In 2020, Our Vote Our Voice PAC poured about $1.5 million into ads for Worrell. A million of that came from Democracy PAC, created by George Soros. This is what that project produces: a prosecutor who can look at a man wanking on a park bench in front of a splash pad and reach for the phrase "not suitable for prosecution."

The same office also dropped local charges against Thomas Dolgos, 47, who possessed and shared videos of infants and toddlers being raped. Statewide prosecutors were already on the case. After the local charges vanished, Dolgos fled and was grabbed at the Canadian border. Uthmeier's description of that file was blunt: "videos of toddlers getting raped and abused."

Of course, the core issue here is scumbags masturbating in public.

As we've highlighted, women and children across Europe keep meeting foreign men who treat trains, beaches, bus stops, pools, metro cars and church doors as private booths. Nobody voted for it. Nobody should have to live with it.

The examples are bountiful.

In Forest Park Brussels last May, a man started masturbating in front of a group of women. One woman hit him with a water bottle and ran. He threw a shoe at her face. When he was confronted, a witness said he offered the philosophy in one sentence: "She's half-naked; I don't see why I shouldn't be able to masturbate."

Another woman described "not a shred of shame or remorse." Police only grabbed him two days later at Place de la Bourse.

That is the same shrug Worrell dressed up as legal reasoning. He said the quiet part. She put it on a podium.

In another incident, young Spanish girls filmed a migrant masturbating in front of them on the mainland.

A Spanish woman described a Moroccan doing it on a train while she sat with her boyfriend; they stayed quiet because they thought he might turn violent. When she named his origin, other women called her racist.

In Palma, a young Moroccan man was filmed masturbating in broad daylight on Calle Industria in the Molinos district, "in front of numerous minors who were going to Mass." Theo man stood at a doorway with his genitals out, porn playing on his phone, while families, children and elderly people moved toward church. People shouted at him. He kept going. Police were called. He left before officers found him.

In the same city, National Police arrested a Moroccan man after he filmed himself masturbating while watching two underage girls on Playa de Palma.

In February, a 22-year-old Moroccan was pulled off an EMT bus in Palma after masturbating in front of passengers, including children as young as five.

In Ceuta, a Moroccan man in his 40s or 50s masturbated in front of children at Fuente Caballos beach. Bathers were close to handling it themselves. Police had to fight him as they attempted to remove him. He admitted exhibitionism. The sentence was an eight-month fine of five euros a day.

Video from a packed Italian shore showed an African migrant masturbating among families and children while men nearby watched and did nothing.

Another clip showed the same act at an outdoor pool in front of children; when the man was confronted and lost the fight, a white woman threw herself in front of him to shield him.

Near Portofino, an African man did it on the sand in front of Langosteria di Paraggi, again with families and children present.

The Paris Metro produced the same spectacle in a packed carriage.

Hannover produced it in front of families and young girls. The locations change. The audience does not.

Britain is not exempt. A Scottish woman named Margaret called a BBC morning show and described a foreign man masturbating in front of her at a bus stop. She said she was disappointed in herself for lacking the courage to stop it.

In Newcastle, witnesses said a repeat offender rubbed himself in a packed city-centre fast food restaurant with children present, then did the same at the Burger King inside Newcastle Central Station during half-term.

A British woman filmed an illegal migrant touching himself at a bus stop; when he was spotted, he made a shooting gesture. He already had a record for the same thing.

Police in West Yorkshire later tried to "reassure the public" after a Leeds bus-stop exposure video resurfaced.

And on and on and on it goes...

And on...

Children are not a gray area. A park bench facing a splash pad is not an acceptable arena for solo sexual pleasure. A church door at Mass is not a safe space for a wrong un with a phone full of porn. If a justice system cannot say that out loud and then act, it has stopped being a justice system. It has become a protection racket for the worst scum of the Earth.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 08:45

Futures Slide As Yields, Oil Spike Ahead Of PPI

Zero Hedge -

Futures Slide As Yields, Oil Spike Ahead Of PPI

US stock futures slumped for a 3rd consecutive day, unable to find traction, and trading at session lows with tech underperforming as Treasury yields pushed higher keeping risk appetite firmly in check ahead of the latest print on US factory prices and earnings from Oracle. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, with Nasdaq futures lagging, and down 0.5%. Pre-market, MegaCap Tech stocks are mixed, led by AAPL and META +1.0%. Overnight, TSMC reported a 53% increase in monthly sales amid strong AI infrastructure demand. Incremental macro news flow were largely muted since yesterday’s close: Trump promised $5k division if GOP wins the midterm, which sparked fresh fiscal stability concerns and pushed yields to fresh 3 year highs, as the 10Y tops 4.88%. The USD reversed an earlier drop to trade at session highs as the Yen slumps. Commodities are mixed: Oil higher (WTI +1.7%), while precious metals are lower; base metals and Ags are higher. US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and August PPI (8:30 a.m.) and August existing home sales and July wholesale inventories (10 a.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed but fading fast: Meta rises 1.3% as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight, citing upside potential after the social media giant launched its AI assistant (Apple +1.1%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft little changed, Amazon -0.1%, Nvidia -0.5%, Tesla -0.7%

  • Copper stocks are falling after Reuters reported that the White House has not ​yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs as it weighs concerns of higher prices raising manufacturing costs against the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining, citing two people familiar with the matter.
  • AeroVironment (AVAV) rises 4% after the drone maker reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • American Eagle (AEO) falls 14% after the apparel firm’s second-quarter total comparable sales fell short of the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that strength at its aerie brand was more than offset by weakness at AE.
  • Cooper (COO) tumbles 16% after the healthcare supplies maker cut its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue guidance for the full year. Analysts note weakness in the firm’s CooperVision unit weighing on its sales forecast.
  • JetBlue (JBLU) falls 2% after the airline cut its available seat miles forecast for the third quarter.
  • Kinetik (KNTK) climbs 4% as the energy pipeline company partly owned by Blackstone is in the early stages of exploring options, including a sale, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Macy’s (M) slips 1% as investors weigh much better-than-expected comparable sales and adjusted EPS in the second quarter against a less robust third-quarter guidance.
  • Navan (NAVN) slumps 15% after the software company gave an outlook that analysts said pointed to weaker trends in the second half of the year, despite overall solid growth.
  • Rackspace Technology (RXT) climbs 13% after the company said it had joined the Nvidia Cloud Partner Program.

In other corporate news Citadel Securities told regulators that prediction market contracts linked to publicly-traded companies should be overseen by the SEC. Boring Co. secured $3 billion in fresh funding backed by the UAE, valuing Elon Musk’s tunneling startup at $23 billion.

Sentiment remains muted as inflationary signs grow: Brent is now trading above $103 (with Shanghai trading at $115!) as Iran vowed it was prepared for a more intense war, LME copper futures hit new records, and global tanker freight rates reached all-time highs.

Investors are also bracing for a busy calendar that could provide fresh catalysts for markets. The packed agenda comes after global yields climbed to the highest in years as the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, prompting traders to bet on tighter monetary policy across the globe.

First up is the latest European Central Bank interest rate decision, with a hike already priced in and the focus instead on guidance. Earnings from Oracle Corp. will offer a fresh read on the outlook for artificial intelligence.  

Meanwhile, the August producer price index could offer clues on the course of inflation for the rest of the year and what it means for US rates. Today’s PPI number, followed by CPI on Friday, are key for market direction. With PPI components feeding directly into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and Fed’s Waller saying that the August data will heavily influence his decision, a hot print could materially reprice September rate-hike odds, currently at 61%. Stocks currently have greater sensitivity to bond yields, with S&P 500 equity risk premium relative to Treasury yields at lowest since 2002.

“Today’s PPI report matters, but probably not enough on its own to change the Fed’s decision next week,” said Santiago Mateo Yanguas at CaixaBank AM. “That said, a significant upside or downside surprise could still move markets today by shifting expectations for the rate path beyond the next meeting, particularly in Treasury yields and interest rate-sensitive sectors.”

Oracle reports after the US close with its shares down 17% this year, sharply underperforming tech peers as traders punished the firm over concerns about heavy capital spending and leverage. While cloud unit sales are projected to have more than doubled in the first fiscal quarter, recent market moves show that strong earnings aren’t always enough to win investors over. Separate figures from Adobe Inc. will offer another window into how software giants are navigating the challenge from AI.

“While quarterly results may trigger short-term volatility, we see the underlying earnings trend as the more important driver of long-term equity performance,” said Francisco Simon at Santander Asset Management. “The structural growth story remains intact, and that is ultimately what matters.”

Meanwhile, markets largely shrugged off President Donald Trump’s promise to give adult US citizens a $5,000 dividend if Republicans retain control of both houses of Congress.

“Markets appear to assign a very low probability to the measure becoming law, given the significant fiscal cost and the political hurdles it would face in Congress,” said CaixaBank’s Yanguas. “Unless the proposal gains tangible legislative support, investors are likely to treat it more as campaign rhetoric.”

Still, while Trump's offer was met with skepticism by the market, it adds to concerns about erratic policymaking at a time when Bessent is striving to keep yields down. Yesterday’s buyback announcement disappointed many who had expected more than the up to $6 billion announced: The “Treasury brought a pea shooter to a tank battle,” said Elias Haddad, Global Head of Markets Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Still, the ‘Trump dividend’ would cover the cost of a shiny new iPhone. Part of the sticker shock had been well flagged, with memory prices for smartphones surging as the AI buildout sucks up supply. Hyperscaler spending will be back in the spotlight after the close when Oracle reports — it’ll be a big test of market tolerance for AI spending given the company’s massive debt load.

There’s no signs of a slowdown in the AI buildout yet. TSMC posted the second fastest year-on-year monthly sales print for 2026, with the company struggling to meet overwhelming demand. Microsoft’s CFO said at an investor conference that Azure was supply constrained, while AI chipmakers in China are reportedly raising processor prices.

The upside in oil has also weighed on equities with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2% after erasing an earlier gain. European shares slipped for a third day ahead of an ECB meeting that’s expected to deliver an interest-rate increase and could offer clues on further policy tightening. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

  • FirstRand shares gained as much as 4.5%, the most since May, after the South African lender reported full-year results, which JPMorgan analysts said reflect “robust” momentum
  • MP Evans Group gained as much as 6.5%, to the highest since May, after the Indonesian palm oil producer announced an acquisition of new land in Kota Bangun
  • Genfit shares climbed as much as 12%, the most in over two months, after the biopharmaceutical firm outlined the commercial prospects for its non-invasive diagnostic test for MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), sparking price-target upgrades
  • D’Ieteren shares rose as much as 6.4%, the most in more than four months, after adjusted pretax profits rose in the first half
  • Corbion advanced as much as 5.7%, to the highest since Feb. 2025, as Oddo BHF lifts its price target on the Dutch food ingredients firm to a joint Street-high
  • AB Foods shares fell as much as 11%, the most since January, after the Primark owner reduced its profit guidance for the Sugar and Grocery divisions
  • Genus shares fell as much as 9.8%, the most since February, after full-year revenue at the livestock breeding and genetics group missed analyst expectations
  • Hemnet fell as much as 9.6%, the most since April, after the Swedish property listings platform announced it will pause its share buyback program of up to SEK600m in ordinary shares
  • Fevertree Drinks fell as much as 6.5%, the most in more than a year, after the beverage company reported first-half earnings that came in shy of expectations

“We don’t think that the ECB would be more hawkish than current pricing,” noted Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “We expect Lagarde to keep the future path of monetary policy data-dependent and not lean into a series of rate hikes.”

Asian stocks fell, tracking losses on Wall Street, as oil prices surged past $102 a barrel and intensified concerns that inflationary pressures would keep interest rates elevated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3%, the most in a week, before paring some losses as chipmakers recovered from session lows. TSMC, Delta Electronics, Tencent and Alibaba were among the biggest drags on the gauge. South Korea’s Kospi closed down 0.3%, while most other benchmarks in Asia, including Taiwan and Hong Kong, traded lower. After being down much of the day, Japan’s Topix recovered and ended 0.2% higher, with Recruit Holdings contributing the most to the gains.  “Oil price fluctuations and the upside of some of the near-term escalations that we’ve seen have really been some of the key risks that market has to fathom as we head toward the the end of this year,” said Yuting Shao, senior director for global macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management. Earlier this week, MSCI’s Asia stock gauge approached near June’s record high as sectors beyond technology drove the rally. But renewed Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude holding gains after Iran said it was prepared for a more intense war with the US. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. The krone is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.

In rates, the downside in Treasuries has pushed US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.87%, the highest since October 2023. Advancing energy prices weigh on Treasuries and front-end gilts, which have underperformed during London morning. With Treasury front-end yields about 1-2bp higher on the day and 10-year about 4bp higher near 4.855%, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are about 2bp wider. Gilts lead the selloff in European government bonds with UK two-year borrowing costs rising to the highest since November 2023. US session highlights include August PPI data, 30-year bond auction and results of the 10- to 20-year buyback shortly after 2 p.m. New York time. 

WTI crude oil futures remain higher by about 1.7% after rising as much as 1.9%; Brent crude topped $102 a barrel amid signs US war on Iran will be protracted

Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening; Wednesday’s 10-year note auction drew strong demand as measured by its clearing yield 1.5bp lower than indicated by the WI level at the bidding deadline. WI 30-year yield near 5.31% is 9.4bp higher than last month’s new-issue auction result, a 0.4bp tail. IG dollar issuance slate includes Kommunalbanken 3-year offering; 16 borrowers priced $23 billion of US investment-grade bonds Wednesday, pushing two-day volume above $61 billion. Issuers paid about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.1 times covered.

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise over 2% and above $103 for the first time since July with Iran ready for a more intense war. Oil prices did fall earlier in the session, providing a modicum of support to bonds after Wednesday’s selloff but that proved short lived.Spot silver falls 1% while gold is little changed.

US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and August PPI (8:30 a.m.) and August existing home sales and July wholesale inventories (10 a.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • Trump on Wednesday suggested his Iran war might end after the mid-terms, but some of his top advisors warn it could last the duration of his presidency, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029. WSJ
  • Donald Trump promised $5,000 for every US adult if Republicans retain Congress, which must be spent in the US and will cost well over $1 trillion. The move signaled mounting concern over affordability and fiscal discipline as voters sour on the economy and Iran war. BBG
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent touted tax cuts, job increases, trade rebalance and Trump accounts during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention.
  • Within weeks of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, once Saudi Arabia’s primary export route for oil, the kingdom turned to Plan B: bypassing the strait by ramping up exports through pipelines to Red Sea. NYT
  • The South Korean government is nearing the announcement of a major energy investment project in the U.S. to support America’s artificial-intelligence build-out, a long-awaited development of the trade deal struck between Washington and Seoul last year. The deal, potentially worth more than $100 billion, envisions South Korea financing the construction of up to eight nuclear power plants and a natural-gas project. WSJ
  • The popularity of high-risk bets among investors looking to cash in on South Korea’s artificial-intelligence boom has caused concern at the central bank. A surge of investment in leveraged exchange-traded funds tied to tech titans such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix generated significant volatility in the domestic stock market, the Bank of Korea said, calling for stronger oversight and regulation of leveraged ETFs as they risk sowing instability. WSJ 
  • The ECB is widely expected to raise rates for the second time since the Iran war sent energy prices soaring. The focus will be on signals from Christine Lagarde as markets see at least two more hikes. BBG
  • The Bank of Japan may eventually be forced to raise interest rates rapidly if inflation accelerates given the country's loose financial conditions, board member Kazuyuki Masu said, warning of price risks ‌that solidify the chance of a September hike. In a closely watched speech ahead of next week's policy meeting, Masu warned of broadening price pressures that have pushed underlying inflation "very close" to its 2% target. Reuters
  • US PPI likely firmed in August after a renewed pickup in commodity prices. Consensus expects a 0.4% monthly increase. BBG
  • TSM reported record monthly revenue for August on Thursday, as demand for chips used in artificial intelligence applications remained strong. The world’s largest contract chipmaker posted revenue of $514.8 billion New Taiwan dollars ($16.35 billion) for last month, up 53.3% from a year earlier and 10.1% from July. CNBC
  • BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 5th Sept) +7.8% Y/Y (prev. +3.7% W/W). BofA said that the surge in spending growth was likely due to base effects from the shift in Labour Day timing and a rebound in gas prices.
  • A US AI safety bill could be introduced next week, Semafor reported citing sources.
  • A US Republican-led Senate subcommittee is investigating OpenAI's handling of the Hugging Face breach in July, Axios reported.
  • S&P500 EPS growth in Q2 2026 was ~30% year / year excluding the "other income" related to some private investment stakes. Earnings for the hyperscalers and the AI infrastructure companies benefiting from their capex spending increased by 54% year / year in Q2, accounting for about 50% of S&P 500 EPS growth during the quarter. However, earnings growth for the rest of the market has also been strong and accelerating. Excluding the Energy sector profits that were boosted by higher oil prices, the rest of the S&P 500 posted year/year EPS growth of 14%: GS FICC

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside, where all major indices declined as yields and oil prices climbed, with Brent crude topping USD 100/bbl for the first time since July. ASX 200 underperformed amid broad-based weakness across sectors and with the downside led by materials, mining, resources, and tech. Nikkei 225 was pressured alongside a higher yield environment and ongoing rate hike expectations, while BoJ board member Masu also stuck to the hawkish hymn sheet. KOSPI declined at the open but was off today's worst levels as SK Hynix rebounded from intraday lows. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood across the region in the absence of bullish drivers and after the PBoC conducted open market operations, but at a paltry amount of CNY 3bln.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC's Lu Lei said the Bank will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely.
  • Japanese MOF Official Sato said the government is not considering buying back JGBs at this point.

European bourses are mixed, with Italy's and Spain's main indices (IBEX 35/FTSE MIB +0.2%) outperforming while the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) is the slight laggard. Light in terms of newsflow this Thursday morning, with focus being on US data (PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday) and the ECB. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Autos top the sector pile, followed by Travel & Leisure and Insurance. To the downside is Tech, with Basic Resources and Construction rounding out the sector laggards.

Top European News

  • German HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
  • German HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%).
  • Norwegian Core CPI (Aug YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.7%).
  • Norwegian Core CPI (Aug MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.8%).
  • Swedish GDP (Jul MM) -0.8% (Prev. -0.2%).
  • Italian Industrial Production (Jul MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.1%).
  • Italian Industrial Production (Jul YY) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%).
  • Spanish Industrial Production (Jul YY) 2.3% (Prev. 1.1%); M/M 0.6% (exp. 0.2%).
  • UK RICS House Price Balance (Aug) -28 vs Exp. -30 (Prev. -30, Rev. -29).

FX

  • Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the flat USD. The Kiwi incrementally gains, whilst the JPY posts slight losses. Ultimately, price action has been sideways this morning, with focus on US PPI and the ECB later.
  • DXY trades sideways and holds within a 98.70 to 98.82 range. There has been a lack of pertinent newsflow for the USD this morning, and it ultimately awaits US PPI this afternoon. There may be added focus on today’s report, with traders looking for any clues heading into the CPI report on Friday. Jobless Claims are also on the docket. Yields continue to trudge higher, as energy benchmarks remain above USD 100/bbl. However, as mentioned in yesterday's piece, the USD has largely ignored the higher yield environment. Much of this is likely due to the recent JPY strength, and also some fiscal-related fears creeping into markets. Moreover, markets will likely avoid making firm bets on the USD ahead of CPI (tomorrow) and the Fed next week.
  • EUR trades within a 1.1629 to 1.1641 range, and holds near its 200-DMA at 1.1633. EUR action will be dictated by the ECB this afternoon, where the Bank is set to deliver a 25bps hike. Aside from the decision, focus will be on the updated staff projections (inflation to be upwardly revised), and any guidance for action later in the year. ING opines that President Lagarde could use her presser to push back on some of the markets’ hawkish bets, which currently price in another hike this year. However, the likelihood is that the President will reiterate her data-dependent and non-committal approach.
  • JPY has been in focus for the past couple of weeks, with USD/JPY falling c. 4.5% since the start of the month. The pair is a bit more contained this morning, despite hawkish commentary from BoJ’s Masu, who stated that he expects to continue raising rates given current accommodative conditions. USD/JPY currently holds at the mid-point of a 153.28 to 153.74 range.

Fixed Income

  • Despite a slightly firmer start for Bunds and USTs, as energy took a relative breather in late-APAC/early-European trade, fixed has reverted into the red and continues to falter as energy climbs once more with Brent above USD 102/bbl.
  • USTs are once again below the 107-00 mark, and to an incremental WTD base of 106-29, which is also a contract low. Amidst this, yields are marginally firmer across the curve, with the 2yr to a 4.41% peak and the 10yr to 4.86%. Aside from the energy move, upside is a function of participants digesting commentary from President Trump at the RNC where he pledged a USD 5k dividend following a strong mid-term performance; while unlikely to occur, as it would need Congressional approval, the payment would cost in excess of USD 1tln and add further pressure to already strained public finances.
  • Today, for the US, the docket is dominated by PPI and weekly claims. Note, the PPI release comes ahead of Friday’s CPI, which could well define the outcome of the September Fed. Thereafter, we look to supply and given, counterintuitively, the upside seen in yields on the Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday, the 30yr tap today may garner extra attention. For reference, the 10yr (after the buyback announcement) was very strong, with the mentioned yield move beforehand potentially providing some additional concession into it.
  • Bunds also lower, by just over 20 ticks at a 121.11 base, matching the low from Wednesday. Specifics for the region light, no move to final CPI earlier. Ahead, the docket is dominated by the ECB. A hike is widely expected, but the decision may not be a unanimous one. Additionally, we look for any deviation in the statement and/or Lagarde from the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, to a potential hawkish tilt given recent developments. On this, the 2027 & 2028 HICP forecasts will be key. However, recent moves in crude and TTF mean they are likely already somewhat stale and the expected upward revision to the forecasts is perhaps not sufficient. Something that may be elaborated on by Lagarde.
  • The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.625% 2030 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.24x, average yield 4.786%, tail 0.3bps.
  • Italy sells EUR 7.75bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 and 2.15% 2072 BTP.

Commodities

  • WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures eke out mild gains, with prices continuing to be underpinned by the Middle Eastern situation, which shows no signs of abating. The former resides in a current USD 95.37-97.84/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 93.76-96.93/bbl range) whilst the latter trades in a USD 100.19-102.72/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 98.80-101.87/bbl parameter). Upside is somewhat capped by the delayed Private Inventory report, which showed a smaller draw than expected, with the DoE slated for today on account of Monday’s US holiday. Dutch TTF front-month has mounted EUR 80/MWh after finding an earlier base just above EUR 78/MWh, with prices continuing to be underpinned by Middle East supply woes alongside heating demand heading out of summer.
  • Metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the complex capped from a growth perspective, although participants await fresh drivers. Ahead, the ECB is unlikely to sway metals much, although US PPI could have an impact, particularly on precious metals. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,388-4,435/oz range after finding support near yesterday’s USD 4,434/oz high. Note that yesterday, the bullion found support at its 100 DMA (today at 4,340/oz). 3M LME copper trades around record highs in a current USD 14,742.65- 14,870.78/t range.
  • In terms of geopolitics, US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and that they will win the war with Iran, while Iran said they are ready for a more intense war if required. Several explosions were heard yesterday in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, while an oil tanker was reportedly being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan warned Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthi militants after a rise in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Houthis attacked Saudi cities with ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted airstrikes in Yemen. Pakistan's Foreign Minister said that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement, but when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
  • US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -1.9mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +2.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
  • US Energy Secretary Wright said the current refining capacity is a bigger problem than crude oil supply.
  • IEA's Birol said their new report shows global coal demand is now set to rise by 1.2% in 2026.
  • Russia's Ryazan oil refinery (~350k BPD) has been idle since a September 6 drone attack, according to sources.
  • Oman OSP for November-loading crude set at USD 119.30/bbl (prev. USD 87.84/bbl in October).
  • Czech PM Babis said the EU should halt the ETS1 carbon allowances system and delay ETS2 due to the higher energy prices.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US trade official said China is ramping up their purchases and is on track to fulfil farm purchases ahead of Chinese President Xi's Washington visit, according to SCMP. It was separately reported that China bought 1mln tons of US soybeans ahead of Xi's visit to the US, according to sources.
  • The South Korean government is considering artificial intelligence investments as part of its trade agreement with the Trump administration, WSJ reported, with a deal that could potentially be worth in excess of USD 100bln.
  • China's MOFCOM said China and the US are in consultations on arrangement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut framework, Xinhua reported.
  • China is extending the anti-dumping probe into pecans from both Mexico and the US.

Central Banks

  • BoJ Board Member Masu said one‑ to two‑year real interest rates remain negative and that they need to keep the price trend from going above 2%, while he added that the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Masu said Japan is no longer in deflation, so real interest rates should be moved out of negative territory as soon as possible, and noted that the policy rate is approaching the estimated neutral-rate range, so prices, employment and financial conditions must be monitored carefully. Furthermore, he said with Japan’s financial conditions still accommodative, the BoJ could be forced to raise rates rapidly if inflation accelerates, and that the BoJ must raise rates further and move its policy rate within the estimated neutral-rate range so it can conduct policy flexibly.
  • In further comments, BoJ's Masu said underlying inflation is gradually approaching 2%, but currently does not expect it to rise substantially above that level. When asked about a 50bps hike, Masu said the bank should proceed cautiously with hikes. On the Yen, Masu stated that they will closely assess the yen’s appreciation and rising crude oil and global food prices at next week’s policy meeting. Masu added that they have emergency market operations as a tool, but that is only saved for exceptional moves in JGB markets.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US President Trump said they will win the war with Iran and that oil prices will go down as soon as they win, while he suggested calling the Hormuz Strait the Trump Strait. Trump said 'may have to give them a shot at Pickaxe Mountain' and advised Iran not to get cute as the US would have to hit them very hard.
  • Top White House advisers have raised privately with US President Trump the prospect that the Iran conflict could last through the remainder of his term, according to WSJ.
  • CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs noted that multiple US military aircraft suffered damage in strikes the prior night on the Salti Air Base in Jordan.
  • Several explosions were heard in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, with the sounds reportedly originating from the sea, according to Fars News Agency. Furthermore, IRNA cited official sources that stated areas in Sirik were hit by projectiles, although SNN reported that no points in Sirik have been targeted.
  • Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesperson said the Makkah defence agreement is a defensive alliance focused on deterrence, with expansion not currently planned until its foundations are solidified. The Ministry added that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement but that when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
  • An Iranian lawmaker said Iran can take "special measures" in response to the IAEA's resolution and may consider action.

Geopolitics: Russia

  • Russia's Defence Ministry said they struck Ukraine's Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and two ships near Odessa.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck eight infrastructure targets supporting Russian military operations over the past 24 hours, including an oil refinery in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets region and a seaport in Dagestan.
  • Ukraine's Air Force said attack drones targeted Zaporozhzhia and that drone groups were headed to Dnipro and Kamienske.
  • Poland’s Operational Command said military aviation remains active and ground-based air defense and radar systems are on alert due to potential threats to Polish airspace from Russian drone activity in western Ukraine.
  • NATO allies have reportedly caught Russian submarines training to debut a secret weapon which could disable critical undersea cables, without leaving evidence, Reuters reported.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Sep 5 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 206k
  • 8:30 am: Aug 29 Continuing Claims, est. 1780k, prior 1779k
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 4.7%
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.6%, prior 4.2%
  • 10:00 am: Aug Existing Home Sales, est. 3.98m, prior 4.06m
  • 10:00 am: Jul F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets had another eventful session yesterday, with stagflation fears mounting after Brent crude oil moved above $100/bbl for the first time since July. That was primarily driven by the latest strikes between the US and Iran, and the moves saw investors price in faster rate hikes and pushed bond yields to multi-year highs. On top of that, Treasuries saw further declines after the US Treasury Department confirmed they were buying back up to $6bn of longer-dated Treasuries, which fell short of some estimates. So by the close, that meant the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.2bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.84%, whilst the 10yr bund yield (+7.6bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.44%. And in turn, that pressured risk assets as well, with the STOXX 600 (-1.41%) posting its worst day in the last two months, whilst the S&P 500 (-0.48%) fell for a third day running. So even though we’re just over a week into September, it’s already living up to its reputation as one of the toughest months of the year for markets.  

As in recent days, the main catalyst for the oil move was the latest US-Iran strikes. So on Tuesday evening, we heard that the US had destroyed five Iranian tankers. And then as we went to press yesterday morning, Iran said they’d targeted 2 US vessels and 8 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in retaliation. For investors, that news raised fears about a further escalation, and Bloomberg also reported that a senior Iranian official said Iran was ready for a more intense war if the US continued its attacks. So that raised doubts that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon, and there was a separate WSJ report overnight that White House advisers had privately raised the prospect with President Trump that the war could continue for the remainder of his term. So Brent crude (+3.36%) jumped to $101.21/bbl by the close, its highest level since May. And investors also moved to price in a more protracted period of high oil prices, with the 6-month Brent future (+1.55%) rising to its highest since early June, at $86.09/bbl.  

Whilst Brent crude rising above $100/bbl took up the main headlines, the inflation concerns were exacerbated by the latest moves in natural gas prices. In particular, European natural gas futures (+4.49%) closed at their highest level since 2022, at €79.25/MWh, and they even traded above €80/MWh at one point. That was partly driven by the US-Iran news, but prices took a further leg higher after the Governor of Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets autonomous district reported that there was a fire at an industrial site. That region is a major hub for Russian gas, and Ukraine said later that its drones had struck two gas condensate plants there. So the reports added to concerns about global gas supplies in the months ahead, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

With oil and gas prices still rising, that led to mounting speculation about faster rate hikes from central banks. So in the US, futures raised the probability of a September hike next week from 61% on Tuesday to 63% this morning. In part, that’s down to the inflationary impulse from energy, but the extent of the moves has also led to concerns about second-round effects, whereby inflation could broaden out away from energy. Meanwhile in Europe, investors also priced in a more hawkish path for the ECB, with an additional +9.0bps of hikes priced in by the June 2027 meeting, meaning that 86bps of further hikes are now priced by then. So that feeds into the concern we wrote about on Monday (link here), where several asset classes are vulnerable to the impact of building inflationary pressures and a faster tightening cycle from central banks.  

Those commodity moves put upward pressure on bond yields, but the rise then accelerated after the US Treasury Department announced they’d be purchasing up to $6bn of longer-dated Treasuries in their initial buyback operation. As a reminder, the Treasury delivered a surprise announcement in mid-August that they’d “at least double” the size of these operations, having previously planned to buy back $2bn before. But we didn’t know exactly how big that would end up being, so there was some uncertainty about how the market would react. But ultimately, the $6bn announcement saw yields rise across the curve, having fallen short of some estimates beforehand. So the 2yr yield (+3.7bps) ended the session at 4.43%, its highest since July 2024, and the 10yr yield (+5.2bps) moved up to 4.84%, the highest since October 2023. Meanwhile, the 30yr yield (+4.3bps) was up to 5.29%, still slightly beneath its recent closing peak of 5.31% on August 17.  

Over in Europe, there were even bigger moves in yields, given the continent’s greater exposure to higher energy prices. As a result, yields hit new multi-year highs across countries and maturities. For instance, the 2yr German yield (+7.2bps) rose to 3.06%, its highest since June 2024, whilst the 10yr bund yield (+7.6bps) hit another post-2011 high of 3.44%. Indeed, it now isn’t far away from the 2011 Euro Crisis peak of 3.49%, and if that’s exceeded, it would take yields up to levels not seen since 2009. Meanwhile in France, the 10yr OAT yield (+10.9bps) surged to a post-2008 high of 4.34%, and Italy’s 10yr BTP yield (+11.0bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.29%. Here in the UK, there were fresh records too, with the 10yr yield (+8.9bps) at a post-2007 high of 5.26%, whilst the 30yr yield (+6.8bps) hit a post-1998 high of 5.87%.  

Looking forward, European rates will stay in the spotlight today, as we have the ECB’s latest policy decision at 13:15 London time. For the decision, they’re widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike today, taking their deposit rate up to 2.5%. So that would be the second rate hike of this cycle, following on from the initial hike back in June. But given that a rate hike is already priced in today, the focus will instead be on the path forward, including their latest economic forecasts. Our European economists think that there’ll be small upward revisions to the GDP projections for 2026 and 2027, along with higher headline inflation for 2027 and 2028. Otherwise, their view is that the ECB won’t give formal guidance today, and will instead repeat the “data dependent, meeting by meeting, no precommitment” mantra. For more details, see their full preview here.  

Ahead of all that, equities had a rough session yesterday, as the combination of geopolitical risk, higher energy prices and higher yields all weighed on the major indices. So in the US, that meant the S&P 500 (-0.48%) fell for a third day running. The breadth of the moves was even more negative, as the S&P saw 404 decliners, the most since June. Meanwhile, energy (+1.09%) was the only sector in the index to register an advance, up to a record high. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even bigger declines given the continent’s greater energy exposure, with the STOXX 600 (-1.41%) experiencing its worst session in two months, alongside bigger losses for the DAX (-1.66%) and the CAC 40 (-1.94%).  

Overnight, that weakness has continued in Asian markets, with further rises in bond yields. That includes Australia’s 10yr yield (+6.6bps), which is up to a post-2011 high of 5.27%, whilst Japan’s 10yr yield (+5.4bps) is up to 2.93%. Meanwhile for equities, the major indices have lost ground across the region, with the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.43%) and the Hang Seng (-1.29%) posting the biggest declines, alongside smaller falls for the Nikkei (-0.54%), the CSI 300 (-0.42%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.35%) and the KOSPI (-0.36%). Nevertheless, there have been signs of stabilisation overnight, with S&P 500 futures (+0.16%) pointing to a modest recovery after three consecutive declines for the index.  Finally, we also heard from the BoJ’s Masu overnight, who said that they’d “continue to raise the policy interest rate”, and that “What is most vital from now on is to ensure that the underlying inflation rate does not significantly exceed 2%.” So that cemented market expectations that the Bank of Japan would deliver another hike at their meeting next week.  

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include PPI inflation for August, the weekly initial jobless claims, and existing home sales for August.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 08:27

EUR Drops As ECB Hikes Rates (As Expected); Raises Inflation Outlook, Sees Downside Growth Risks

Zero Hedge -

EUR Drops As ECB Hikes Rates (As Expected); Raises Inflation Outlook, Sees Downside Growth Risks

The European Central Bank increased interest rates for the second time since the Iran war broke out in February, responding to signs inflation is set to stay well above 2%.

The deposit rate was lifted by a quarter-point to 2.5% on Thursday, as predicted by almost all economists in a Bloomberg survey.

“The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” it said in a statement.

“The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth.”

GUIDANCE:

As widely expected, the Governing Council left his language on the future rate path unchanged, repeating the mantra of being “well-positioned" and following a "data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach."

That actually leaves all options open for the coming months, and it seems likely that Lagarde will try to do the same later.

INFLATION

  • Inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.

The ECB raised its inflation outlook for the next two years...

  • *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION AT 2.5%%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.3%

  • *ECB SEES 2028 INFLATION AT 2.1%; PRIOR FORECAST 2%

  • *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION EX-FOOD/ENERGY AT 2.6%% VS 2.5%

Despite more encouraging signals, though, as underlying inflation and a closely watched gauge of services prices retreated. Wage pressures also eased.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

  • The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth.

Thursday’s move puts euro-area policymakers further ahead of their peers in reacting to the energy-price surge that’s produced the fastest inflation in almost three years.

Traders see the ECB doing more, pricing two further hikes by mid-2027.

That contrasts with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which are yet to tighten monetary policy over the fighting in the Middle East and may refrain again next week.

Interestingly, despite the relative hawkishness, the EUR is fading this news...

Patrick Ernst, a strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank:

“The ECB moved as anticipated, but what accompanied that rate decision matters more. In keeping the door open to further tightening, policymakers made clear that an energy-led inflation risk is still very much in play. One hike is not a ceiling. The odds of another before year-end have risen.”

President Christine Lagarde, who continues to be linked with an early departure from her role, will face journalists at 14:45 p.m. in Berlin.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 08:27

Hike Or Hold? Debating The Coming Fed Decision

Zero Hedge -

Hike Or Hold? Debating The Coming Fed Decision

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via Real Investment Advice,

Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, the debate over whether the Fed should raise rates or hold is heated. To help you appreciate the range of views, we present this article as a courtroom exercise. We will let the prosecution make its case for a rate hike, and the defense make its case for a hold. We will render our verdict after both sides present their cases.

To set the stage, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 60% chance of a September rate hike, with further hikes possible at subsequent meetings. The graph below shows the market is pricing in a 36% chance of two rate hikes by mid-March 2027, with roughly equal 25% chances of three hikes or only one.

The Prosecution's Case: Rate Hike

With the strong August BLS employment data, the case for a hike now has three legs.

The first is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address on August 28. His policy-related comments were direct: he wants to restore credibility to his pledge to get inflation back to 2% in short order. Below are comments we wrote in Warsh Makes A Hawkish Pivot:

Warsh was blunt in his assessment of inflation. He signaled the Fed may not be done fighting inflation, saying financial conditions didn't look restrictive enough to him and that recent benign inflation readings hadn't convinced him the trend was improving meaningfully. Per Warsh's speech:

"And while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved."

"Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job... our mandate... and our charge to keep."

In his words, Warsh says the Fed has "work to do."

The second leg is the most recent BLS jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls jumped 162,000 in August, more than triple the 50,000 number Wall Street expected. Furthermore, the prior negative 23,000 number was revised upward to a positive 21,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at a historical low of 4.1%.

For the prosecution, that exhibit fits well with New York Fed President John Williams's claim that rising bond yields simply "reflect the strength of the economy." Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a more dovish member, seems to be coming around to the idea of rate hikes, telling reporters, "I would support an increase if it becomes necessary to bring inflation down. It may not."

Beth Hammack- The Lead Prosector

Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed, has been the most consistently hawkish voice on the committee and presents the third leg- the persistence of high inflation. She dissented at the last FOMC meeting in favor of a hike, arguing that the Fed likely needs a sequence of rate increases rather than a single move, and has recently said that "now is the time to act."

Hammack doesn't seem concerned that higher interest rates will impede the economy. To wit,

One 25 basis point move probably doesn't do a whole lot for the economy

Her overarching reasoning is that current rates aren't restrictive; accordingly, they won't bring inflation back to 2%.

I just don't see it coming back on its own

Furthermore, she believes delaying rate hikes only makes the job harder later and that inflation is more broad-based than just oil.

Regarding the labor market, she has pushed back on weak-jobs narratives, saying she's "still not seeing a problem" and pointing to unemployment close to full employment.

The labor market is right around my level of maximum employment.

Her employment view helps explain why she's comfortable prioritizing fighting inflation over the health of the labor market. The most recent employment data will strengthen her opinion.

The Defense's Case: Hold Rates Steady

The defense will not put much faith in the recent employment report. Instead, it will focus on the recent string of weak employment data and, importantly, the large revisions that have turned good job reports into bad ones. That skepticism over jobs data is warranted, as shown in the chart below.

Twice a year, BLS benchmarks and revises the payroll survey against actual unemployment-insurance tax records. The preliminary 2025 benchmark knocked 911,000 jobs off the year ended March 2025, cutting average monthly growth in half from a reported 147,000 to 71,000. When it was finalized in January, calendar-year 2025 growth got cut again, from a reported 584,000 down to just 181,000. The year before that, the preliminary 2024 benchmark had already cut 818,000 jobs from the year ended March 2024.

More recently, April's initial 179,000 gain is now 148,000, and May's initial 172,000 gain is now just 63,000. July was reported as an outright loss of 23,000 jobs but has since been revised up to a positive 21,000. An economic data series that has been grossly overstated in two straight annual benchmarks and then turned a reported loss into a gain within a month is data that we must be dubious of. Last week's gain of 162,000 jobs has not yet been revised.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin's read on the underlying labor market is as follows: "It's not loose, it's not tight, it's sort of been a weak balance," he said, describing employers who are neither firing employees aggressively nor expanding their payrolls.

Inflation And Other Risks

On inflation, the defense will note that the July CPI report was benign. Headline CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, and core CPI rose 0.2%, but year-over-year rates of 3.4% headline and 2.5% core are above the Fed's 2% target. The recent trend, not the dated annual comparison, is what should matter most for a forward-looking rate decision, and the monthly trend is cooling.

It's worth adding that the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE, which ignores the most volatile components of PCE, sits at 2.28%, close to the Fed's 2% target. At his Senate confirmation, Warsh cited the trimmed mean as a valuable inflation gauge. Furthermore, five-year inflation expectations, another tool many Fed members rely on, sit at 2.4%, slightly below where they were before the Iranian conflict.

The defense's strongest proponent may be Governor Waller, who argues against rate hikes. He believes that the forces pushing yields higher are largely outside the Fed's price stability and full employment mandate. The forces include deficits, dollar concerns, AI-related capital needs, and the oil shock tied to shipping disruptions rather than domestic demand. Hiking to fight yield narratives risks a policy error.

The table below shows the fundamentals and narratives impacting the Fed's decision.

The Evidence

To assess both sides, let's review recent trends in the Fed's two mandates: employment and prices.

Labor Markets

While the most recent labor data from the BLS was strong, we are highly skeptical, as negative revisions have plagued BLS data. Furthermore, recent ADP and JOLTS data offer little confirmation of a sharp pickup in hiring. The graph below showing the 3-month moving average of BLS and ADP highlights that 60k to 70k jobs are being added monthly, which is well below the 150k to 250k range preceding the pandemic. The labor force has grown by 8 million people since 2018, making recent data even worse in comparison.

To better assess the labor market and its recent trend, we created a model using the following six factors:

  • BLS household employment - survey of individuals
  • BLS establishment employment - business survey and payroll records
  • BLS labor participation rate
  • ADP private payrolls
  • Real wage growth
  • JOLTS hires index

Our model expresses each of the six factors as a z-score against its own history since January 2022. This model doesn't provide a historical reading on employment but shows that the weakening trend of the last few years has worsened over the last six months.

Inflation

The graph below shows that year-over-year Core CPI sits near 2.5%, almost exactly where it stood before the Iranian conflict started. Moreover, the slow trend toward 2% still appears intact. That said, headline CPI remains elevated at 3.4%.

As we did with labor, we created an inflation trend model. This four-factor model compares the most recent three months of inflation data to the prior three months to detect trends.

Per the model shown below, inflation has been "anchored" since January 2023, albeit with a short spike coinciding with the Iranian conflict. Since then, the gauge has receded back toward 2025 levels and is now edging into the "cooling" zone. Like the employment gauge, all factors have a negative z-score, indicating the recent trend is softening.

Summary: Our Verdict

We are sympathetic to both sides. The prosecutor is 100% correct that we need to get inflation back to 2% as soon as possible. It has been above target for too long, and the Fed risks consumer and corporate spending behaviors changing in a pro-inflationary way. The debate at the Fed seems to come down to whether they let that occur naturally or force the issue.

The prosecuting side wants to raise rates to force inflation lower. The defense wants to wait, claiming the disinflationary trends that existed before the Iranian conflict are reasserting themselves and that higher rates could worsen an already weak labor market.

Some Fed members, including Warsh, claim that the recent spike in yields across the yield curve makes borrowing more restrictive for consumers and corporations, effectively doing the job for them.

We come down on the side of the defense, though the August employment number, assuming it holds up through revisions and similar strength persists, does weaken our case. Inflation should be hotly debated as it is. We are comfortable with recent trends and somewhat comfortable that, assuming oil prices don't spike, price trends continue lower.

The credibility argument supporting a rate hike concerns us most. The idea is that the Fed needs to raise rates to address rising bond yields and reassert "credibility," rather than respond to a confirmed breakdown in either of the Fed's dual mandates.

Yields have risen largely because of an oil-driven supply shock and concerns about swelling fiscal deficits. The Fed's short-term policy rate is poorly suited to address them.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 07:45

Brent Tops $102 As Mideast Conflict Intensifies, HSBC Hikes Oil Forecast

Zero Hedge -

Brent Tops $102 As Mideast Conflict Intensifies, HSBC Hikes Oil Forecast

Brent crude futures traded above $102 a barrel Thursday morning after Iran threatened to intensify attacks, renewing concerns over tanker flows through the Hormuz maritime chokepoint. The supply risk extends well beyond crude to mounting shortages of refined products, particularly diesel, as the US diesel crack spread trades around $102 a barrel.

President Trump's indication yesterday that the conflict could continue beyond November's midterm elections suggests limited near-term fuel pump relief for working-class folks, with the US national gasoline average above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold and diesel at a record high. Trump also announced overnight a proposal for a $5,000 "Trump dividend" check for every American adult if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress.

Following Goldman, HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing continued disruptions to shipping through the critical Gulf waterway that are expected to keep global oil balances tighter for longer.

With Hormuz flows running at roughly 30% of pre-conflict levels, HSBC analysts see the market adjusting to a prolonged period of depressed tanker transit through the chokepoint. That outlook suggests sustained supply constraints through year-end.

"The key indicator to watch is whether this will put an end to the heavy shuttling of oil through the Strait of Hormuz," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen. "It may not come to a complete halt, but combined with the more aggressive Houthis in the Red Sea and higher Chinese crude oil imports, the global oil market balance appears to be deteriorating again."

Earlier this week, Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy said about 10 million barrels a day have been crossing the waterway, roughly half of pre-war levels. He added that an exact figure is hard to quantify and that volumes aren't guaranteed daily.

Read:

Goldman commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby sharply revised tanker-flow estimates through the Hormuz chokepoint to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. That's mainly because the market is not counting ships that turn off their automatic identification systems to avoid detection by Iran.

Goldman's Daan Struyven also noted one upside scenario this week that could push Brent to $120 if the conflict persists...

"The fundamental picture for products remains bullish with global inventories and reserves deteriorating," said Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets. Before 'Operation Epic Furry', about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through Hormuz to global customers, mainly in Asia. The ongoing disruptions have sent NatGas prices in Europe above 81 euros on Thursday. 

Beyond energy, a broad-based commodity rally has pushed agricultural products and metals higher, sending the Bloomberg Commodity Index to levels last seen in 2012. HSBC analysts spot a commodities cycle developing into a "super squeeze," which suggests the move could be sustained.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 07:20

HSBC Sees "Upside Risks" From "Super Squeeze" In Commodities

Zero Hedge -

HSBC Sees "Upside Risks" From "Super Squeeze" In Commodities

London copper futures are trading north of $14,700 a ton, Brent crude futures have climbed above $101 a barrel, US diesel crack spreads are back in triple-digit territory, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is at a 14-year high. The energy shock has broadened into a rally across the commodity complex, from energy to agricultural products to metals and other critical materials, with a growing number of Wall Street research desks identifying tightening physical supplies as a key driver.

HSBC chief economist for global commodities Paul Bloxham is the latest to warn that a "super-squeeze" in commodity markets continues to produce outsized gains.

"The 'super-squeeze' has continued to support elevated commodity prices … as the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars and El Niño disrupt supplies … and AI and electrification drive demand," Bloxham wrote at the start of the note. "Prices are expected to remain elevated, and there are upside risks."

To illustrate the broad-based surge in commodity prices, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at levels last seen in 2012, marking a 14-year high...

... while the Quantix Commodity Index has hit a new record high.

Bloxham told clients to focus on these ten themes:

1) A'super-squeeze' continues …

Six months after the Middle East conflict began, it is still a key driver of commodity prices. Commodity prices are well above the pre-Iran war levels, despite being below the peaks reached early in the conflict. The worst-case possibilities have, so far, been avoided, largely because of rapid drawdown of inventories, but the global commodity price index is up 18% YTD and 24% y-o-y in August. The team's base case sees an average rise of 22% in 2026 (16% prior) and flat in 2027 (-7% prior), leaving our 2027 forecast 14% higher than previously expected. 

We see risks to these forecasts being to the upside as the 'super-squeeze' continues.

2) … with disruption from the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars …

The Middle East conflict remains the key risk. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with significant uncertainties about when it will open and on what terms. A cycle of escalation and de-escalation of the conflict has been repeated many times in recent months, driving volatility. The Middle East conflict has also broadened, with attacks by the Houthis on Saudi ships in the Red Sea disrupting traffic though the Bab el-Mandeb Strait too. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war, which is now in its fifth year, has been a more acutely disruptive force recently, including for supplies of grains and refined oil products, like diesel.

3) … and a strong El Niño weather event

Extreme weather is another upside risk to prices. A strong El Niño has arrived, with the Southern Oscillation Index already at extremes not reached in over two decades. This is a particular risk for agricultural supply, where the Middle East conflict has already disrupted fertiliser and diesel supplies and the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted shipping. A recent Northern Hemisphere heatwave has also shifted patterns in energy consumption with implications for stocks of key energy commodities. El Niño is also affecting manufacturing supply chains, and thereby impacting commodity markets. 

4) Inventory rundown in focus, particularly for oil and gas

High inventories and rapid drawdown of these inventories - particularly of oil and gas - has been a key factor helping to, so far, balance markets in the face of the 'super-squeeze'. In the oil market, the US has been exporting more - as it runs down its strategic reserves - and China has been importing much less - as it too runs down reserves. However, the longer the disruptions continue, the greater the upside risk to prices, as stocks fall to levels that start to approach 'tank bottom'. For gas, European inventories are well below target, reflecting a very hot summer, with lower stocks increasing the risk of high prices in the coming winter.

5) More than just oil - sulphur, diesel and jet fuel disrupted too

The supply disruptions, particularly due to the Middle East conflict, extend well beyond oil and gas. In particular, there have been significant disruptions to supplies of sulphur, fertiliser, aluminium and helium -- as well as a range of refined oil byproducts, such as jet fuel, naphtha and diesel. The Russia-Ukraine war has more acutely affected supplies of products such as diesel, as the conflict has led to recent significant damage to refining capacity.

6) Metals and energy prices supported by AI and electrification

Most base metal prices have risen recently, as the boom in AI infrastructure investment and the energy transition have supported electrification demand. Copper prices have increased to all-time highs, partly reflecting strong demand, but also limited investment in new mines constraining supply and supply disruptions. For aluminium, although the Middle East conflict has been disruptive, China dominates global supply and some cargoes have cleared the Strait of Hormuz, containing the upside to prices. Lithium prices have also risen strongly over the past year, up 130%, but as with previous cycles, this has triggered more supply, particularly from Zimbabwe and Australia, which could curb the price upside.

7) China's slowdown weighs on bulk commodities

Despite good support for base metals from the AI and electrification booms, falling fixed asset investment in China, particularly the ongoing property correction, which is now in its fifth year, has weighed on demand for iron ore, coking coal and steel. That being said, this year China's authorities announced more infrastructure investment plans, worth around RMB7 trillion, as part of the 'Six Networks' initiative, which should support demand for bulk commodities and their prices. For iron ore, on the supply side, there have been large changes to pricing as the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) centralised Chinese buying and the ramp-up in production from the Simandou mine in Guinea adds in more supply.

8) Grains and 'finer foods' prices rise, as supply squeezed

Agricultural markets have been heavily affected by the disruptive impacts of the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, particularly to supplies of fertilisers and diesel. The El Niño event, Northern hemisphere heatwave and record high ocean temperatures (a positive Indian dipole) are all risks to the outlook for supplies. An El Niño event creates more volatility in agricultural prices, by disrupting supply. Winners are typically North and South America, with much of Asia typically worse off, with higher drought risk in Australia and Indonesia, a weaker monsoon in India and hotter and drier conditions in South-East Asia. Grains prices have been rising recently, led by wheat, and 'finer foods' prices are rising too - particularly cocoa and coffee.

9) Precious metal prices are high and we see more upside

After a significant rise in precious metals prices through 2025 - gold prices more than doubled to their peak in January 2026 - prices have edged lower across the precious metals complex year-to-date in 2026. A key driver has been a rise in interest rates - particularly at the long-end of yield curves - which has encouraged investors to seek yield and thus move away from precious metals. That being said, with geopolitical risk still high, central bank demand still positive, and more uncertainty in bond markets, precious metals prices are well supported. Platinum and palladium prices may also be supported by constrained mine supply.

10) COCCLES suggests a 'super-bull' phase underway

Finally, HSBC's purely statistical model, COCCLES, which looks for patterns in commodity prices, shows that the market is convincingly in a 'super-bull' phase of the cycle.

This model is not structural, but it does tend to be the case that once a super-bull phase begins, it tends to persist much longer than the other phases do. 

This model result lends statistical support to the view that commodity prices will remain elevated. 

With HSBC's commodity-cycle model firmly signaling a "super-bull" phase, the big question for traders now is how long physical scarcity themes and other supply constraints can collide with demand to sustain the rally. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 06:55

10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning reads:

​• Something Is Shifting in the Inflation Picture: Claudia Sahm on why she moved from hold to hike ahead of next week’s Fed meeting — a division no single CPI print will resolve. (Stay-At-Home Macro)

​• Netanyahu Got an Explicit Warning Before Oct. 7. He Didn’t Brief Security Chiefs: In September ’23, UAE President bin Zayed called Netanyahu directly in September 2023 to deliver a harsh warning — something big was coming from Hamas — and Netanyahu did nothing. An extensive investigation, conducted for a new book, reveals the PM’s failures surrounding Oct. 7.  (Haaretzsee also Making Sense of That Big Story Saying Netanyahu Was Warned About Oct 7: Josh Marshall on the 45-minute call, with Israeli elections set for October 27. (Talking Points Memo)

​• Dead Malls Dot America. Why Not Get Rid of Them?: M. Nolan Gray on the decades-old agreements with former anchor tenants that keep dead malls locked up. (Washington Post)

The American Dream Is Alive. And It’s Minting Millionaires. Meet the ‘Everywhere Millionaires’ proving that elite degrees aren’t a prerequisite for building massive wealth. Dick Portillo opened a hot-dog stand in 1963 without knowing how to cook a hot dog; half a century later he sold the company for $1 billion and moored a 130-foot yacht named Top Dog. (Wall Street Journal)

​• An A.I. Giant Made an Enemy of Record Labels. Can It Play Nice?: Ben Sisario on Suno, sued by the majors over copyright, now releasing a version of its music generator trained in partnership with Warner Music. (New York Times)

The complicated implications of the spectacular ‘Apollo premium’ And when you isolate Apollo? The firm, according to Buccola and Nini, pays a staggering 100 basis point premium merely for being Apollo, despite their deals boasting below-average leverage and credit contracts that are not particularly loose by modern standards. ​ New research finds Apollo pays a staggering 100-basis-point premium merely for being Apollo — despite below-average leverage and credit contracts that aren’t particularly loose.  (Financial Times)

How Williamsburg Lost Its Swag: A new generation of gentrifiers is gentrifying the old gentrifiers. (Slate)

​• This Tiny E-Reader Is the Single Best Piece of Technology in Years: The Power Broker weighs as much as a brick at 1,344 pages — some readers cut it apart at the spine. The Atlantic tries something else. The $70 Xteink X3 puts Silicon Valley to shame. (The Atlantic)

​• The Human-Origin Story Is Being Radically Revised: Ross Andersen on the modern humans who wandered into Ice Age Europe 50,000 years ago — and the Neanderthals who’d been living among the glaciers all along. New secrets from our past have been coming out in droves. (The Atlantic) see also Scientists Find More Than 1,000 Genetic Variants Linked to Personality: More than one million genomes helped identify DNA variants linked to extroversion, agreeableness, neuroticism and more. Researchers measured how those traits influenced how people lived. Emily Baumgaertner Nunn on the study of more than a million genomes tying DNA variants to extroversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, and more. (New York Times)

She Also Found It at the Movies: The Hedgehog Review on Pauline Kael, whose film reviews were truly something else. I don’t read Pauline Kael to track my sensibility with hers on an aesthetic oscilloscope. I read her because I think she—more than any writer I know, including Agee—brings the whole of herself to writing about movies. And so the best way to think about Kael’s writing is not as movie film criticism; that would be a category error. She wrote in a known genre, but not that genre, whether she knew it or not. (Hedgehog Review)

Video of the day: The Economics of Music Labels

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Seth Bernstein, CEO of AllianceBernstein and Head of Asset Management of Equitable Holdings, the 69% owner AB. The firm manages $905.5B. Previously, he spent 32 years at JPMorgan Chase, where he eventually became the Global Head of Managed Solutions & Strategy at JPAM, responsible for all discretionary assets for Private Banking clients, and Global Head of Fixed Income & Currency. He eventually became CFO of JPM’s Investment Management & Private Banking division.

Oil hits $100 for the first time since July

Source: Financial Times

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Clears Vienna Hurdle As Congress Review Continues

Zero Hedge -

US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Clears Vienna Hurdle As Congress Review Continues

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

  • IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says Saudi Arabia won't sign the Additional Protocol but will accept oversight powers over enrichment, conversion and reprocessing that closely mirror it.

  • The underlying US-Saudi 123 agreement, signed July 22, opens a path to domestic uranium enrichment after a two-year study, a break from the UAE's enrichment-free 'gold standard.'

  • Congress is 90 days into reviewing the deal, with Democrats and nonproliferation groups pushing back and two side letters still classified.

A planned nuclear cooperation deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia won't include the toughest inspection regime the U.N.'s atomic watchdog has to offer, but it's going to come close on the activities that matter most.

That's the picture International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi laid out Monday in Vienna, speaking to reporters during the agency's September Board of Governors meeting. Riyadh isn't signing the IAEA's Additional Protocol, the tool that lets inspectors show up unannounced at sites a country hasn't even declared. But Grossi said Saudi Arabia is preparing to grant the agency verification and monitoring authority over its most sensitive nuclear activities, uranium enrichment, the conversion step that precedes it, and reprocessing, that functions almost the same way.

"These are sensitive activities, as we all know," Grossi told reporters. The new powers being built into the bilateral safeguards agreement, he said, will be "very, very similar" to what the Additional Protocol provides, though he declined to spell out specifics. Once finished, that safeguards agreement still has to go before the IAEA's own 35-member Board of Governors for sign-off.

A Deal Years In The Making

The framework goes back to a 123 agreement that Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed on July 22, capping more than a decade of on-and-off talks that repeatedly stalled over Riyadh's refusal to give up enrichment as a condition of U.S. cooperation. The pact, named for the section of the Atomic Energy Act that governs U.S. nuclear exports, opens the door for American firms to build reactors in the kingdom and hands Riyadh something it has wanted for years: a real shot at enriching its own uranium.

Under the terms reported at signing, Washington and Riyadh have two years to study whether domestic enrichment makes commercial sense. Any enrichment plant built afterward would go up under a "black box" model, run by U.S. companies inside Saudi Arabia so the underlying technology never actually changes hands. It's a sharp departure from Washington's 2009 pact with the United Arab Emirates, the deal nonproliferation advocates still call the gold standard, under which Abu Dhabi permanently gave up enrichment and reprocessing altogether.

Congress Gets Its Say

The administration sent the agreement to Congress in late August, starting a 90-day review clock under the Atomic Energy Act. Lawmakers can let it take effect by doing nothing, or pass a joint resolution of disapproval to kill it, though that would need to survive a presidential veto. Two side letters attached to the deal remain classified, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which also notes that of the 51 countries with active 123 agreements, only Argentina and Brazil currently lack the Additional Protocol. Saudi Arabia would be the third.

Congressional Democrats have pushed back hard, joined by some Republicans, arguing the deal opens the door to a wider enrichment race across the Middle East. The White House, meanwhile, has tied the agreement to Saudi Arabia eventually joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel, a step Riyadh has so far declined to take without progress toward Palestinian statehood.

The Backdrop

For Riyadh, the deal is also part of a broader push under Vision 2030 to build out nuclear power alongside renewables and diversify an economy still tied to oil exports, with U.S. firms like Westinghouse positioned to compete for reactor contracts worth billions. The talks are unfolding against last year's war between Israel and Iran, which has hardened Gulf calculations around nuclear deterrence. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said publicly the kingdom would pursue a weapon of its own if Iran ever built one. Iran, for its part, operated under the Additional Protocol from 2016 to 2021 under the nuclear deal that collapsed after the U.S. withdrew in 2018, a history nonproliferation groups keep pointing to as they push for tougher terms on Riyadh.

For now, the deal sits in a kind of holding pattern. Congress's review runs deep into the fall. The bilateral safeguards text is still being finalized in Vienna. And whether the arrangement Grossi described Monday ends up satisfying skeptics on Capitol Hill, or just gives them a new set of details to pick apart, is still an open question.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 06:30

Migrants Responsible For 47% Of All Violent Crime In German State Of Bavaria

Zero Hedge -

Migrants Responsible For 47% Of All Violent Crime In German State Of Bavaria

Via Remix News,

Non-German suspects account for nearly half of all violent crime in the German state of Bavaria, with the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party now calling for remigration for all criminal migrant suspects. The Interior Ministry data was released in response to a request from AfD state parliament member Martin Böhm. It revealed that police recorded 20,367 suspects in violent offenses in 2025 and about 47 percent did not have German citizenship.

Remarkably, foreigners are responsible for this massive amount of serious crime despite making up only 15.5 percent of Bavaria's population.

Syrians were the largest group of non-German suspects, at 1,284, followed by Turks with 799, Ukrainians with 797, Afghans with 784, Romanians with 687, Iraqis with 428, Bulgarians with 350, Poles with 328, Kosovars with 319, and Italians with 250.

A different ranking appears when the figures are adjusted for population. The suspect burden figure, or TVBZ, measures how many suspects police identified per 100,000 people in a group over one year.

Ukrainians had the highest TVBZ, at 555. Turks followed at 445 and Romanians at 435. The figure for German citizens was 106. That means Ukrainians, for instance, are more than five times more likely to commit a violent crime than Germans.

The government did not calculate a TVBZ for other nationalities because each had fewer than 100,000 residents.

"For smaller population groups, the crime rate would have to be mathematically extrapolated to 100,000 people," the state government wrote.

"However, since the relationship between population size and crime burden is not strictly linear, an error would occur in the TVBZ calculation, which is greater the smaller the population group. For this reason, the TVBZ are only calculated for non-German citizens who have a population share of over 100,000 people."

When it comes to murder and manslaughter, there were 411 suspects in Bavaria and 177 were non-Germans, equaling 43.1 percent of all murder and manslaughter suspects. The TVBZ for Germans was 87, while Turks had a TVBZ of 478 and Ukrainians with a TVBZ of 499.

In cases of rape, sexual assault and sexual assault in particularly serious cases, including those resulting in death, police registered 1,288 suspects in Bavaria. Of those, 551 were foreigners, equaling 42.8 percent.

It must also be noted that for all German suspects counted in this data, the Interior Ministry does not release if they have a foreign background.

Böhm said the figures show that violent crime in Bavaria is an imported problem to a "far too high" extent.

"No amount of sugarcoating or trivialization will help. The numbers speak for themselves," he told Junge Freiheit, which exclusively received the figures.

"The AfD therefore demands: decisive action by the judiciary, an end to mass naturalizations and rigorous remigration of foreign violent criminals," Böhm said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 05:00

America's Next Military Contractors Could Be Hackers

Zero Hedge -

America's Next Military Contractors Could Be Hackers

Washington may soon outsource part of its cyberwarfare operations to private companies, according to a new report from Bloomberg

Language tucked into the Senate’s 2027 defense bill would create a pilot program allowing the Pentagon to hire outside cybersecurity firms to penetrate computer networks chosen by the US military. Contractors would operate under US Cyber Command and Pentagon supervision.

Bloomberg writes that the authority would initially be relatively narrow. Private operators could establish access to targeted networks, but the Senate language stops short of authorizing them to damage, disable or destroy those systems.

Still, it would represent a significant expansion of private industry’s role in US offensive cyber operations. The administration has already moved in this direction, launching a separate initiative that permits American companies to pursue certain foreign cybercriminal groups under federal oversight.

Advocates say outsourcing some of the work could provide badly needed manpower and expertise as Cyber Command faces growing demands and staffing pressures. Opponents argue that introducing profit-driven companies into cyberwarfare could create new problems, including retaliation, accidental escalation and murky accountability.

If enacted, the experiment would start in 2027 and continue through 2030, with the Pentagon required to regularly disclose information about contractors, missions and targets to Congress.

For now, however, it remains only a Senate proposal. The House defense bill contains no equivalent measure, meaning the provision could still be changed or removed before reaching the president.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 04:15

"Really Bright Future": Wall Street's Big Bet on Booming Red America Escalates

Zero Hedge -

"Really Bright Future": Wall Street's Big Bet on Booming Red America Escalates

Goldman Sachs is nearing a major milestone on its new Dallas campus, where the exterior of an 800,000-square-foot building is nearly complete and the Wall Street firm is preparing to begin work on the interior ahead of a planned January 2028 opening.

The new Goldman Sachs campus in downtown Dallas is under construction, with a projected opening in January 2028. (Shelby Tauber via Getty Images, yoinked from Fox News)

The project will consolidate two existing Goldman offices into a single campus and give the firm more room to expand in a city that is already its second-largest U.S. base after New York, with roughly 4,500 employees across North Texas. The roughly $500 million campus is designed for more than 5,000 workers and will be the largest office by square footage in Goldman's portfolio when it opens - larger than anything the firm occupies in Manhattan. Ericka Leslie, Goldman's chief administrative officer, recently inspected the site and said Dallas has so far lived up to the firm's expectations.

"I can't say it enough, I think Dallas is a great place to do business, it really is. The building is beautiful," Leslie told Fox Business.

"We're in two buildings now, we're going to be able to combine everybody into this state-of-the-art space, and it's right next to the Perot museum, and the city itself is very vibrant. So we're looking forward to it, and we're going to grow there," the Wall Street executive continued. "It's a growth opportunity for us inside of the United States, and it's a really vibrant place to do business."

"The outside of the building is mostly complete, and they have to do that in order to start fitting out the inside of the building and air conditioning it, so that will begin fairly shortly. We're looking for a launch around January 2028," she added.

The new campus will offer views overlooking downtown Dallas and the Perot Museum, including from outdoor areas. (Goldman Sachs)

However, January 2028 is running a little late versus Goldman's original plan. Dallas is so busy building that even Goldman has to wait in line for contractors.

"The project is mostly on time. It's slightly delayed, there's quite a bit of development going on in Dallas right now, and so we're seeing small delays," she said.

The math behind the move is straightforward. CEO David Solomon has noted that Goldman's headcount in New York has not grown in 20 years, while Dallas and Salt Lake City are where the firm is adding people.

Goldman is hardly alone in putting more people and money into Texas. Some of the biggest names in finance are expanding their presence in the state, adding offices and employees as Texas seeks to establish itself as a larger rival to traditional financial centers on the East Coast.

For example, Morgan Stanley is planning a permanent Dallas hub by 2031. Under a July 2026 resolution filed with the Dallas City Council, the firm plans to spend just over $587 million on a 708,000-square-foot building expected to house about 3,800 employees by the end of 2035. At least 25% of relocated or newly created positions are required to go to Dallas residents. That works out to roughly $829 per square foot, against about $625 for Goldman's campus.

The new Goldman Sachs campus in Dallas will allow the firm to consolidate and grow its presence in the region. (Goldman Sachs)

Texas is also making a push into the infrastructure of financial markets themselves. The Texas Stock Exchange, backed by BlackRock, Citadel Securities, Charles Schwab and Goldman itself, raised $161 million, making it the most well-capitalized exchange applicant in U.S. history. The exchange went fully live in late July.

Meanwhile, Apollo Global Management is expanding farther south in Austin, which the firm selected for a new hub focused on innovation, emerging technology and its next phase of growth.

"At Apollo and Athene, we help meet the capital needs of companies and economies, while enabling people to retire with confidence. That mission has driven our innovation for more than three decades, and this new presence is a continuation of that DNA. Change is the only constant, and we'd rather lead it than react to it," Apollo CEO Marc Rowan said. "Austin lets us build the next generation of Apollo and Athene, including challenger models for parts of our own business, with the talent, technology and business environment already in place. That's why we chose Austin and Texas."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 20:30

University Of Washington Settles Case Against Professor Disciplined For Mocking Land Acknowledgment

Zero Hedge -

University Of Washington Settles Case Against Professor Disciplined For Mocking Land Acknowledgment

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

Land acknowledgments have become standard at academic and political events, including the opening of the Obama Presidential Library and a recent Michigan Democratic event. While supporters insist it merely shows respect for original inhabitants, critics argue it is the ultimate virtue signaling and is increasingly being forced on both speakers and audiences. One critic is Professor Stuart Reges, who teaches at the computer science and engineering school of the University of Washington. He has now received a settlement from the University of Washington, which spent a significant amount of time and resources in response to his mocking of the school's land acknowledgment.

University of Washington

We previously discussed the case of Professor Reges, who was disciplined because he refused to post the school's "land acknowledgment" and instead posted an alternative statement. Professor Reges sued the university and various officials in 2022. Professor Reges has declared "Land acknowledgments are performative acts of conformity that should be resisted, even if it lands you in court."

The defendants included Nancy Allbritton, the Dean of the College of Engineering at the University of Washington, Magdalena Balazinska, Director of the Allen School, UW President Ana Mari Cauce, and the Allen School's Vice Director Dan Grossman.

After the university encouraged faculty to add a prewritten "Indigenous land acknowledgment" statement to their syllabi, Reges decided to write his own statement. He has now been told that, while the university statement is optional, his statement is unacceptable because it questions the indigenous land claim of the Coast Salish people.

The school provided a recommended statement for all faculty to post and/or read to their students at the first of every course:

"The University of Washington acknowledges the Coast Salish peoples of this land, the land which touches the shared waters of all tribes and bands within the Suquamish, Tulalip and Muckleshoot nations."

Professor Reges disagreed with that statement and expressed his doubts to the faculty while also noting that "Magda" did not want the faculty to discuss such reservations on the email system. That may refer to the Director of the Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering, Magdalena Balazinska.

Reges' alternative statement read:

"I acknowledge that by the labor theory of property the Coast Salish people can claim historical ownership of almost none of the land currently occupied by the University of Washington."

The labor theory (which I teach) generally refers to John Locke's theory. In his Second Treatise, Locke laid the foundation for property as a divine gift of God that began in the state of nature, where all was created in common by God. Reges declared that these tribes, indigenous people, "can claim historical ownership of almost none of the land and that the claim of the university land was not sufficiently used or developed to bestow a claim upon the Coast Salish people. That acknowledged group is a broad collection of different groups with ethnic or linguistic associations."

In his lawsuit, Professor Reges says that, after he stated his own views, the university moved against him.

"On January 4, 2022, the day after Professor Reges's Computer Science and Engineering 143 class met for the first time, Defendant [Magdalena] Balazinska, Director of the Allen School, sent Professor Reges an email ordering him to remove the statement from his syllabus because it was 'offensive' and created a 'toxic environment.'"

Reges noted that the university allowed other professors "to include modified statements in their syllabi that were more consistent with the University's recommended statement." The operative point is that "other faculty at the Allen School continue to include land acknowledgment statements in their syllabi that differ from the University's own statement, so long as they express a viewpoint consistent with the University's recommended version."

According to the complaint, Balazinska then allegedly removed his dissenting statement, and the university emailed his students to apologize for their professor's "offensive" land acknowledgment opinion and advised them on "three ways students could file complaints against" him. The students were later allegedly told by Balazinska that, according to the complaint, "all students in Professor Reges's Computer Science and Engineering 143 class section [can] switch into a new 'shadow' class section, which would meet at the same time as Professor Reges's class section."

Reges notes that the alternative class was a series of recorded lectures, but viewed as a reasonable alternative to being in a class with a professor with a dissenting view on land acknowledgments. Some 170 out of his 500 students took the alternative course.

I previously wrote how universities can use course assignments and other collateral means to isolate dissenting professors in an effort to get them to resign. This is especially true of tenured faculty.

I wrote that:

The Reges case could prove a major challenge to that orthodoxy. All university faculty should have condemned the university's actions as an attack on academic freedom and freedom of speech, regardless of how they feel about land acknowledgment. The silence, however, is a reflection of how much has changed in higher education."

It has now resulted in a $600,000 settlement after the university spent massive amounts of public money over four years to fight this lawsuit over the abusive treatment of Professor Reges.

The university settled only after the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled in December that administrators were "liable under the First Amendment for retaliation and viewpoint discrimination."

Unfortunately, there is no indication that the university officials who created this fiasco will be held accountable in any way. Millions were spent, and years of litigation were triggered by the orthodoxy of the university. However, these officials will likely be heralded by their colleagues, and nothing is likely to change in the University of Washington's intellectual echo chamber.

However, according to FIRE, the settlement "stipulates that the university cannot take any further action against Reges."

Congratulations to Professor Reges and FIRE for a well-fought case with potentially lasting implications in protecting free speech and academic freedom.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 20:05

Appeals Court Blocks IRS From Sharing Data With Immigration Authorities

Zero Hedge -

Appeals Court Blocks IRS From Sharing Data With Immigration Authorities

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The IRS may not disclose the addresses of illegal immigrants to immigration officials, a U.S. appeals court said on Sept. 8.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit upheld a February ruling from a district court that deemed an IRS policy to share the addresses of tens of thousands of people with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) illegal in part because the policy failed to meet requirements in the law.

The unanimous panel agreed, rejecting arguments from the government to the contrary.

The policy "indisputably contravenes the requirements of section 6103," a law that governs when the IRS can share taxpayer information, Circuit Judge Cornelia Pillard wrote for the panel.

The law allows the IRS to disclose certain tax return information to other federal agencies for use in criminal investigations. To make a request, the head of the agency needs to identify the taxpayer by name and address, specify the relevant tax period, and explain why the information may be relevant to the probe.

Under a memorandum of understanding signed in April 2025 between the IRS and ICE, the latter asked for the last known address for more than 1 million people believed to be illegally present in the United States. ICE did not provide an address for some of the people on the list. Under the agreement, IRS workers sent 47,289 records to ICE before the district court stayed the process.

IRS officials requested the appeals court overturn the ruling. Government lawyers said that the groups that sued did not have standing, that the IRS did not have to follow procedures in the Administrative Procedure Act because the agreement was not a final agency action, and that the practice did not violate federal law.

Pillard wrote that at least one of the plaintiff organizations was sufficiently injured by the policy that it could bring suit, that the IRS did have to follow the procedures because the policy was a final action, and that the action violated federal law because ICE in some cases did not supply an address, as required by the law.

The law provides that the IRS can disclose information about a taxpayer to officials "personally and directly engaged" in criminal proceedings or investigations concerning that taxpayer, allowing disclosure as long as the field for the ICE point of contact is filled in, even if it said "unknown" or "to be determined."

ICE ended up putting the same person as the point of contact for each of the 1.28 million listed taxpayers for whom it requested information.

The judicial panel found that the government's practice "entirely fails to ensure that ICE lists a federal employee, let alone one 'personally and directly engaged' in a qualifying investigation of a particular taxpayer."

"Today's order is a resounding victory for the protection of all taxpayers' right to the confidentiality of their tax information in the hands of the IRS," Nina Olson, executive director of the Center for Taxpayer Rights, one of the groups that sued over the policy, said in a statement.

A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security, ICE's parent agency, told The Epoch Times in an email that the agency disagreed with the ruling.

"We will continue using every lawful tool available to locate and remove illegal aliens with final orders of removal, and this ruling in no way prevents us from doing so," the spokesperson said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 19:15

At The Money: Becoming a “FinFluencer”

The Big Picture -



 

 

At The Money: Considering a Career Change? How About FINFLUENCER? With Tyler Gardner (September 9, 2026)

Ever think of a career change? Have you thought about becoming a “finfluencer” on TikTok, Insta, or YouTube? It could be both interesting AND lucrative.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Tyler Gardner is a former financial adviser and portfolio manager who pivoted to a financial-media business, reaching more than six million followers.  His book “Real Wealth: Make Money Work for You” arrives Dec 1, 2026

For more info, see:

Professional/Personal website

YouTube

LinkedIn

Newsletter

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT: At the Money Becoming a Financial Influencer, with Tyler Gardner
Host: Barry Ritholtz  |  Bloomberg Audio Studios

 

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Ever think of becoming an influencer, shifting your career to TikTok, Instagram, or YouTube? It could be both interesting and lucrative. To help us unpack this and what it might mean for your career, let’s bring in Tyler Gardner. He taught economics, eventually becoming a financial advisor and portfolio manager, but then he pivoted to a financial media business, eventually reaching more than 6 million followers. His book, Real Wealth: Make Money Work For You, arrives December 1st, 2026.

So, Tyler, let’s start in the beginning of your career. What pulled you out of education and into finance?

TYLER GARDNER: Oh, I think the easiest way to sum it up is I’ve never been pulled out of education. There was a point — I remember the meeting specifically — it was with our faculty at a school in Connecticut where we had a representative from TIAA-CREF who came to talk about retirement funds. And not one colleague of mine could understand what this person was talking about when they were saying expense ratios or target date funds. And I left saying, there’s a big problem if 110 truly educated adults in this world cannot understand a basic concept of expense ratio.

And so I wanted to add education to the financial component. And I realized at some point along the educational career in high school, I liked talking to my colleagues a little more about money than I liked talking about semicolons in class to 15-year-olds. I didn’t try to eliminate it. I just started to have this vision that becoming a financial advisor or portfolio manager would be education for finance. And I’d get to go teach these things and learn these things. So that was the initial inspiration for the pivot.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: You know, some people would say the complexity and impenetrable jargon is a feature, not a bug, because hey, if you don’t understand what financial people are saying — or for that matter, contractors or doctors or lawyers, what have you — well then you have to pay them for their expertise. But let’s leave that cynicism aside. You eventually become both a financial advisor and a portfolio manager. What surprised you about how wealth management actually operated as an industry?

TYLER GARDNER: Phenomenal question, because that’s all it was. It was a big surprise. I worked with great people, I’ll start with this. It was a small RIA in Vermont. And the reason I was drawn to that specific RIA is that unlike some of the bigger corporate wealth management firms, they really struck me as valuing education. So again, I got brought into this world thinking — I had this real ideal vision that I’d move back to Vermont, I’d get to educate people in my own hometown when I came back. And the biggest surprise was that the majority of people who wanted us to manage their wealth didn’t want to be educated on managing their wealth. They wanted us to manage their wealth.

And there was a great irony in the fact that so many people, particularly high net worth individuals, wanted to give the assets and say, “Don’t call me. I’ll call you. We’re all set. I’m paying for the convenience.” Right. And that surprised me. I was really looking forward to a scenario in which I had a daily class with people or a daily coffee where people would flock to wanting to learn more about index funds and low-cost investing. It didn’t quite work like that.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: So how did the social media experiment begin? You’re a natural teacher. What led you to say, well, if my clients aren’t asking me to educate them, I’m just gonna educate everybody else? How did that really start?

TYLER GARDNER: Yeah, well, I think, again, to give credit to the initial RIA for which I worked, they noticed very quickly just what you just said — they noticed and were drawn to the fact that I loved to educate. And so they brought their marketing team in and we started doing some short-form videos. They, as a firm, said, look, this is a really powerful way to reach an abundance of people beyond a very small state in New England, and we want to get the message out. So we started doing videos, we just weren’t positioning them correctly.

And when I say correctly, I mean, I think we were putting the majority of them on our firm’s website and maybe every now and then putting some on LinkedIn. And they just weren’t going anywhere. There was no real reach or power. And so when I first really saw the power of TikTok and Instagram and Facebook, I go, this is the disconnect. But they knew early on that education combined with the considerable reach of these platforms was very powerful. We just never could hone it as well as I know we all wanted to.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: There are lots and lots of stories of people putting stuff on LinkedIn and Facebook and TikTok and YouTube, and, you know, it doesn’t really generate a response. Doesn’t get a whole lot of follows, a whole lot of likes. At what point was there a specific video or a post that persuaded you, hey, there might be a real audience here?

TYLER GARDNER: Yeah, the number one reason. So I came home after doing — we had probably done 10 videos as a firm. And I came home and my wife was actually scrolling TikTok and she said, you gotta look at this person. They’re talking about a Roth IRA and it’s really funny. And I looked at the video and it was funny, it was engaging, and the person didn’t know what a Roth IRA was. So I look at this, I said, hon, this isn’t actually how a Roth IRA works. And so I started going down the rabbit hole, because there had been 2 million views on this video, and it was complete misinformation. So when I delved a little bit more into the rabbit hole, I found there were a lot of people on these platforms who were very engaging and could speak very confidently and articulately, and they were just flat out wrong.

And then the people who were really accurate and data-driven and who had done all the work, or who had actually been PMs or financial advisors for 20 years, some of them didn’t quite know how to engage. So I looked at it and said, just from a business standpoint, there’s a real gap in social media of someone who actually can educate in a simple way. Somebody who’s used to taking very complex ideas and trying to make them digestible in 30 seconds or less, and is able to also actually bring data points in. And so I almost took it as a big challenge initially of, how can we do this? And I look at it as an art form of how can you package something that most of the world doesn’t want to think about on a daily basis — finance, investing — and make it something fun. So was there a specific video early? No, it was more the gap in the marketplace that made me want to pursue it.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: You know, everybody I’ve dealt with over the years who is both at a regulated shop — be it SEC or FINRA or state regs — and is a creator, blogger, videographer, podcaster, whatever, runs into some issues with their firm. Way back when, some of the big wirehouses, when Twitter first came out, would give their advisors a list of approved tweets, like, here, choose from this menu. You know, that’s gonna get no pickup at all.

I got really lucky. My general counsel back in ’02, ’03 — before that, nobody knew. Nobody understood, nobody cared. I was on GeoCities and then TypePad, and nobody said a word, ’cause what the hell is social media? What the hell is blogging? But I was lucky to have a general counsel who said, listen, about all these posts you’re doing, you could talk about the market, the economy, sectors, whatever you want. You cannot say buy Microsoft. You cannot say sell Dell. No buys or sells and you’re good. I learned that was really lucky. What was your experience like with legal and compliance?

TYLER GARDNER: I won’t say it was quite as loose, and I envy what you just said, because man, do I want to come work for that firm. And I might’ve stuck around a lot longer had we appreciated — or had counsel appreciated — the flexibility of what we might be able to do. But even before I answer that question, just to be fair, I remember when I was studying for both the Series 65 and the CFA, they would always have a section — and this was probably six years back, seven years back — on social media, and exactly what you’re saying: what is the regulation behind social media right now? The punchline every time was, we don’t know yet. We don’t know what this is. We don’t know what to regulate. We’re gonna have to come up with these rules on the fly. Is this person a registered advisor? Is this person a representative? Are they a solicitor? And so the initial draw to produce it obviously was the power that it had. The initial challenge was both on a state level and on a federal level.

We as a small RIA wanted to be very, very careful about what we said and how we said it. And even though, yes, at the end of the day it was probably just a, hey, don’t recommend buying or selling individual securities, we took it so far on the prudent level of just saying, look, let’s make this very, very educational. Don’t ever name specific funds. Don’t ever name specific drawdown rates, because you never wanted to conflate any of this with potential advice. And so I think that the real future for anybody in this space — and again, this is wide open; I mean, there’s only a handful of us who have actually made it to a big platform here — the future is basically anyone who is able to say, I know what to say within limits, I know this is not against regulations, and I’m gonna market myself and how I think. There’s still so much room there to grow.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: No doubt about it. So you began your career as a teacher. I’m curious, what did you learn in the classroom that ultimately made you a better communicator of complex finance ideas?

TYLER GARDNER: Sure. Nobody wanted to be in the classroom. Inherently, I’ll start with that. Other than a handful of students, the beauty of starting, I think, any career as a teacher is that you’re fighting — I won’t say a losing battle — but you’re fighting against a group of people who collectively want their attention to be elsewhere. Which is actually very different, obviously, from social media, because people self-select to go onto social media and to be in a place. And if they’re watching, they want to.

But initially the challenge was, how can I get a room of 18-year-old students who would literally rather be doing anything other than sitting in this chair on this May day in gorgeous rural Connecticut — how can I get them to engage with an essay by Virginia Woolf? And again, it always was a game to me, it always was a challenge and an art of, what can I say and how can I say it? Not just to capture their attention, but to get them to feel like they have some sort of stake in what this is. And that was where it was: once you were implicated — if I could communicate to someone, you are implicated in this class, you have a stake here — then I would find obviously more ownership going forward. But as far as communication goes, it was again just a matter of we had a very scarce resource, which was time, and how do I get as much into this time as possible?

BARRY RITHOLTZ: At what point did you find posting financial content morphed from a side hustle to, hey, this could actually be a real career?

TYLER GARDNER: Yeah, I mean, I’d say the easiest way to say it is when I started making enough money for it to be a real career and when I could actually pay the bills. But when I first pivoted, I left my W-2 job and I took a leap of faith two years ago. And the reason I took a leap of faith is that at that point I had opened up an educational one-on-one coaching option. You could come talk to me for an hour about how to invest, types of investments — never advice, all obviously education, always as general as possible.

What stuck out to me is I couldn’t open up enough slots to fill the immediate demand, and I couldn’t raise my prices high enough, quickly enough to kill that initial demand or to temper it, if you will. So instantly you see, oh my gosh, there is a massive amount of people here who want this type of information and they’re willing to pay a lot of money for it. They’re willing to be present with it. I got out of the consulting part very quickly because, again, back to the regulatory component, I didn’t love it — it seemed like way too much of a gray area. And no matter how many contracts somebody signed saying this isn’t advice, I’m not your advisor, I did not feel comfortable having someone ever leave a conversation thinking that they might be getting advice from somebody. But that was exactly the time when I said, look, this platform — wherever we go and whatever we sell — this platform has so much power now that I’m comfortable leaving the hundred-thousand-dollar-a-year W-2 to really see what we can do with this.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: So you left not one but two very stable, relatively safe, pretty comfortable jobs to sort of jump into something that is risky, and there was no guarantee that it was gonna work. What did your friends, family, colleagues think, and what was your own biggest fear?

TYLER GARDNER: I think now — now that I’ve allowed myself to believe that the endeavor is quasi-successful — now I’ve actually gotten the truth from people about how they felt two years ago when I first made this pivot. And almost everybody thought it wasn’t gonna work, that this was a fad, that the attention economy is so cyclical that you might be the Internet’s favorite person for a week and then fail miserably. And that was obviously the challenge, was trying to think about sustainability and consistency.

But early on they made fun of it. And I think every single person who either considers themself an influencer, or somebody else considers them an influencer, you have to go through what we all call the cringe phase, where you are producing terrible content because you’re just not good yet. Just like anything else, you’ve gotta learn how to do it through trial by error. And most people don’t want to go through that phase. Your friends all make fun of you and they laugh, and it’s very easy in that moment to say, I want to quit. And then all of a sudden things start to shift when you start getting some of the deals. But those don’t come for six months to a year of daily torture and ridicule from the friends, the family. And it’s not that they doubt you as a person, they just kind of doubt that this is a thing that a lot of people are capable of — that if you really just sit down and say, look, we can make this happen — because it doesn’t happen to everybody, you know?

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Yeah, it’s fascinating. Doug DeMuro of Cars and Bids and his own YouTube channel — I think his YouTube channel is six or 7 million subscribers. He’s talked about the first few years of doing video, he had very little pickup, and he was also writing a column and occasionally doing a video review on a column. And one day a reader wrote in and said, Doug, the video reviews are the most interesting part. I don’t wanna read the column. Why don’t you do more of that? And an entire business was born.

Did you have a moment like that where it became clear, oh, if I emphasize this, this will work out? Or was it really just a grind to build those numbers up to a quarter million, half million? At what point is it clear this is a viable, sustainable business? Is it a million subscribers, a half a million subscribers? Where do you hit that number?

TYLER GARDNER: Yeah, I mean, well, just like money — and I think you and anyone listening will understand this as well as anyone — your follower count very quickly becomes identical to your bank account. It’s never enough, Barry. You think you want to hit a million and that will somehow give you that little endorphin hit and you’ll be satisfied. That’s not enough. Once you’re at one, you wanna be at 10. Once you’re at 10, you wanna be better than that competitor who you have always been going after. So as far as, is it enough, what was the moment? There’s never a moment.

And the algorithms now too, just to get a little technical about it — ultimately, on most of these channels, it doesn’t actually matter how many followers you have anymore as far as the reach potential. This is where I’d like to inspire anyone to try it. You can create a TikTok account tomorrow. Your video has an equal chance to go viral as mine. And as you mentioned, I have millions of followers across these platforms, but it’s the best immediate feedback system in the entire world. It beats every type of job I’ve ever had. If you produce crap, you don’t get reach. It’s not a matter of millions of followers. It’s if you don’t make something entertaining and of value and engaging for those 60 seconds — if you don’t earn someone’s 30 to 60 seconds — it doesn’t go anywhere. So it’s kind of a self-selecting process, again, of you’re either good or you’re not. But the people with millions of followers obviously have in some way honed the skill. You don’t get to that level without honing the skill to begin with.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that algorithm for a moment. What attracted me to your videos was you weren’t doing anything clickbaity or sexy or outrageous to garner clicks. In fact, you’re very much a salmon swimming upstream against the tide of that sort of stuff. How do you preserve accuracy and nuance when all of these platforms reward speed, oversimplification, outrage? Hey, if you could make somebody furious and angry by manipulating their emotions, you’re much more likely to go viral than by saying, and here’s how you do a Roth IRA conversion correctly. Correct?

TYLER GARDNER: I mean, first of all, you just summed it up flawlessly, absolutely flawlessly. And anyone who’s been doing this for a little while who claims they don’t know that is lying. If I go on and I make a video that just pokes at people a little bit, or nudges people or alienates something, you’re gonna get more attention. Or if you say something that you know is a little bit less than nuanced and is lacking a little information, you know what you’re doing. How I look at it — and I would say how I justify some of the videos in which I know dang well I don’t do due diligence and go down as far as I could on the complexity of this — A, again, it’s a limited resource of 30 to 60 seconds. B, my goal at this point is all social media — from TikTok, Facebook, YouTube Shorts — that’s all top of funnel for me. So even if someone thinks I’m a complete ding-dong who doesn’t do due diligence on TikTok, my goal is to get them to read my newsletter. On the newsletter, I don’t cut corners, because now I’ve got someone who has self-selected into a system where they’re willing to read that nuance and they want that.

So you invite that. That to me is where I try to build more credibility. Same with the podcast, right? So both of those longer form — I just want to get the attention on the short form to get them to a place where I say, look, now can you trust that I didn’t really think that Social Security was something you should decide in 30 seconds after listening to me talk about it and poke you, like everyone should take it at 62. I do want to go through this. But again, if you try to provide nuance in the short form, you’re not going anywhere. So it’s almost like a line I heard in Yellowstone the other day, where they’re talking about politics, and the game of politics before you get the position is you kind of have to poke and alienate and unfortunately be — maybe, I won’t say a lesser version of your moral self than you want to be, but there are corners you have to cut to get the attention that the video will attract, to get where people want to go. Once they’re there, then I think you have the responsibility to say, look, now that I earned a little bit of your attention, trust me, I’ll reward you with real information and not clickbait nonsense.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: What I’m hearing is that you have to adapt your message to each format and make it fit into that in order to work your way down the funnel. So let’s talk about that funnel. You start with short-form videos, eventually a newsletter, a podcast, and now a forthcoming book. Was that a very purposeful, conscious set of decisions to keep the focus on the in-depth education? Or did it just evolve organically?

TYLER GARDNER: It evolves. I’d be creating a narrative where none exists if I pretended that any of this was according to some grand master plan. I heard a great line years back: your choices are half chance, so are everybody else’s. And where this has gone — if you had asked me two years ago, I was creating monthly reflections on where I wanted the business to go. And for one year I would look at my notes and it said, don’t ever do a newsletter, because a newsletter is stupid and it’s a joke. And then I remember reading something from Tim Ferriss where he said, you’re a joke if you don’t do a newsletter, because it’s the only place where you gather the asset of the email address and they can’t take it away from you.

And so when TikTok went through its little temporary 24-hour ban — it actually really shut down in the US for one day, there was no TikTok — instantaneously I went from having built two years of this slightly credible platform that had good reach to nothing, and I had no control. They just shut down the system. And I said, look, if I don’t diversify these digital assets, I’m being just as much of an idiot as I say people are with money when they don’t diversify their assets in an account, in an IRA or a 401(k).

BARRY RITHOLTZ: You have to own your own content. You have to own your own platform. You have to use these other platforms to drive the traffic to something that can’t be taken away. I mean, years ago I was on Six Apart’s platform, Movable Type, and eventually, years after I moved to WordPress, they shut it down. We’ve seen GeoCities shut down. We’ve seen all sorts of changes to different algorithms. If you’re ultimately not driving people to something that you own, that’s it. You are at the mercy of these giant technology corporations, and they could care less about you.

You know, I saw a video of yours recently where you discuss the concept of using your time, and wealth is really about how much time you have to yourself, but you make the case that it’s really knowing what to do with your time that is the big value. And I want to add something to the concept of building your own business, which is agency: the ability to control what you do, how you do it, who you do it with, and how you spend your time and when you do different things. Talk a little bit about how this pivot to social media and content creation has really given you much more agency over your time and your work.

TYLER GARDNER: Sure. I think just building on exactly what you just said, I don’t believe that humans hate work. I don’t buy it. I don’t think I ever will. I think humans don’t like being told what to do and working with people they don’t respect. The second you can get out of that and have your own agency or your own authorship or autonomy — call it whatever you will — instantaneously you now have the capacity to go work with other people that you say, ooh, I really do respect this person, or I’m really drawn to this person’s energy. And then your energy goes up. And again, this is entrepreneurship 101: once you have control over your time, you say, wait a minute, I do wanna be engaged in these projects. And you hear over and over again the people that exit businesses at, let’s say, 35 or 40, and they come into the windfall of a couple tens of million bucks. They don’t go sit on a beach for the next 40 years. Within one year they’re looking for another project. Everybody I know goes through a nice honeymoon where they think they made it, and then they’re looking for another project.

So for me, when I switched to this, the heaven on earth that I created was, again, just being able to wake up and say, if I wanna work on a great podcast script today, I can do that for 10 hours. If I wanna go film 20 videos today, I can do that. And our minds, as we all know — some days we’re on and some days we’re not on. And so when we have our own agency, when I think I’m really on and the energy’s good and I’ve had good positive interactions, I can go out — and I do go out into the woods, and that’s when I film my videos. But just like everybody else, I have very crappy days. And if you’re the W-2 employee, unfortunately, you have a crappy day, you’re still showing up for that same type of work. If you have your own agency, I can say this is a down day. I’m not putting myself out there today. I’m gonna write some more today or think about a chapter today. So really, it’s the greatest gift I’ve ever had — the agency to choose when I work and with what energy.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Huh, really fascinating. Last question. So someone who’s considering a career change — they wanna become a creator, an influencer, they wanna move from something safe to something risky. What sort of advice do you have for those people?

TYLER GARDNER: Sure. And I think — I know you know this because I’ve read a piece where you talk about this — but a lot of people don’t, in my mind, think about risk in the way that they say they think about risk. So you just set up the polar concept that if I go to a job like this, it’s more risky than if I don’t. Whereas I always try to push people just a little bit to say, look, the biggest risk is you sit in the current job you have for 20 years as a safe W-2 employee. And that’s fine, I get it. You got the bills to pay, but your upside is so capped, you have no idea. And I would just say that the two things I value most in life at this point — obviously the clichéd one is owning my time. But because I own my time, I have the ability to focus on a daily basis on anything I want to focus on. And so the risk to me is that you get your one life taken away for 20 to 30 years and you are not focusing on a daily basis on the things you want to focus on.

And just with the entrepreneurial spirit, I would tell anyone who wants it, the concept of risk is way more applicable in my mind to losing out on what you could have done than if you go try something. And if it doesn’t work out after a year, after two years, after a real effort — what I don’t think enough people understand — you can go back. I trust that you can go back to whatever you were currently hired for. Maybe not at that company, but I trust that you can find another stable type of position where you say, I’m back in W-2 land. But you’d never know unless you went out there. And now the upside is insane. As you know, once you start your own business, I’m blown away with where the upside goes — not just on a monetary level, but also just with time and decisions, and the fact that I get to make these decisions now.

So I’d tell everybody, you gotta try it for at least six months. You gotta get through that initial phase where everybody wants to quit and everybody does quit. Everybody I know who wants to start social media and says, ooh, I could do this too — it’s just like the New Year’s resolution of going to the gym in January. You quit within two weeks because you didn’t immediately get a million followers. And I’ll just say this has been a trek for four years now to get to this point. So none of this is easy, none of this is overnight. Any story about viral sensations and someone just blows up — that’s not how it works. You grind and you grind every day and you learn and you get there, but it has been worth every second. And I would tell anybody, with the power of these platforms and the fact that it’s free — it’s a hundred percent free to market yourself and your brand however you want — if you’re not trying this with your business, you’re missing out on an incredible opportunity that might not be there in 10 years.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Really fascinating. So to wrap up: if you are in a job where perhaps you’re not being challenged, or you are a little bored, or lack the sort of agency and enthusiasm that you’d like to have, and you are creative and a good communicator and have the ability to educate or inform or entertain people, consider adding social media influencer to part of your repertoire. Who knows, it might become a new career.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. This is Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: Becoming a “FinFluencer” appeared first on The Big Picture.

Japan Is Telling You To Run To Gold

Zero Hedge -

Japan Is Telling You To Run To Gold

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via Von Greyerz,

Below, we look at lessons from Japan and its latest signals to prepare for a market sell-off, a debasement acceleration and a golden endgame.

Pattern Recognition

My father taught me long ago that the years teach things the days do not always notice.

In all areas of our lives, we slowly acquire perspectives earned by experience over theory and by time rather than guesses.

This is equally true of lives spent investing in markets and cycles. A certain pattern recognition is acquired that not even a Bloomberg terminal or AI robot can teach.

As one, for example, who traded through a dot.com bubble led by the undeniably transformative technology of the internet of all things, I remember well how everyone from Wall Street experts to Hollywood movies made it clear that names like Cisco, Yahoo and AOL were kings who would never be dethroned.

That felt very exciting.

At least until the NASDAQ lost 78% and two of those "kings" were carried off the market on their shields, while Cisco, which at least survived the carnage, would never be the same again.

Those days and years are now teaching us yet another lesson, one whose pattern few wish to see, for the simple reason that many are not, or never were, paying attention.

And as for such patterns or lessons, what very few are seeing today is that Japan's JGB, yen and Nikkei have just given us a familiar road map for what lies ahead for America's Fed, dollar and S&P.

I Think We're Turning Japanese (Yes, I Really Think So)

What is happening this year in Japan goes well beyond the otherwise significant conversations on the Japanese "Carry Trade."

As bond jocks constantly remind us of boring things like sovereign debt yields, it can often be too boring (or too scary) to confront.

Like the sun, topics like death and bond markets are often hard to look at directly.

The fact, for example, that the yield on the Japanese 30Y JGB just hit over 4.18% for the first time in its history may seem like a yawn to many otherwise doom-scrolling through the latest war, AI meme or DC scandal de jour.

But this historical yield spike out of Tokyo is far more than just another bond signal - it's a harbinger of things to come in your own backyard (and wallet).

The Canary in a Coal Mine

Much like the USA, today's Japan (which is the world's 3rd largest economy) is a paper tiger built on extraordinary debt (greater than 200% of its total economy) and a bond and hence stock market entirely supported by (and correlated to) a central bank fatally addicted to printing (debasing) trillions worth of its currency to keep its illusion of economic survival going.

If this profile looks a lot like America's and Europe's, that's because Japan is just a canary in the Western coal mine. Where it goes, we shall follow.

In fact, Japan's sins are in many ways our own, especially America's.

Blame It on the Experts

Just after the Nikkei literally died in 1989, a then-ambitious and much younger Ben Bernanke gave Tokyo a handbook to print their way out of collapse.

Bernanke would use a similar handbook when U.S. markets tanked years later in 2008. As we are now discovering, his expertise was anything but expert.

But during this period of mass MMT delusion and massive currency debasement, Wall Street was betting for years (decades) that Japan's debt levels would eventually implode under inevitably rising bond yields (and hence debt costs).

For literally decades, Wall Street mavericks were betting big on a yield spike that would re-crush the Nikkei and JGB in one big headline.

But this headline never came, and the foregoing bet against Japan became known on the Street as the "widow maker."

Buying Time, Postponing Pain

Instead, the BoJ bought itself decades of time and a market recovery by printing just unthinkable levels of yen to keep JGBs (Japanese bonds) bought and the Nikkei higher.

For the near entirety of my career, this kept Japanese yields at zero to negative, buying time while crushing those who bet against Tokyo.

Which brings me back to that boring 4.18% record yield on the 30Y JGB.

This figure confirms that the dam has finally broken on the broken Japanese "plan."

Or to use the analogy above, the canary in its coal mine just died.

For those paying attention, these rising yields just caused the Nikkei 225 to lose 200B in a single day, and this sell-off was led by the so-called "Immortal" tech kings, you know, the kind which were never supposed to fall - like AOL, Yahoo or Cisco of old.

The Sickness is Global and Currency-Killing

But what happens in Tokyo doesn't stay in Tokyo.

Yields across the "developed" world have been rising to decade highs because the bond markets are now showing more honesty than central bankers, from Tokyo to DC.

As the yield on the Bloomberg Global Sovereign Bond Index shoots past 3.72%, yields from Australia and the UK to Germany and the USA are skyrocketing to untenable levels.

The bond market is essentially asking for more risk premium (yield) on government IOUs that are no longer trusted.

Given this global debt fiasco, is it therefore any surprise that the global broad money supply of printed paper currencies, which hit $150 TRILLION in June, has increased by a staggering 50% since 2020?

Such open currency debasement now hiding in plain sight not only explains why currencies like the USD have lost 87% in absolute purchasing power since decoupling from gold in 1971, it further explains why the world's central banks are stacking gold at an unprecedented pace in 2026.

Physical gold is no longer an allocation or dollar "debate"; it is the open and now obvious puck direction of global collateral and the de facto international reserve asset above tanking currencies and unloved sovereign IOUs.

This is not fable but fact.

Stocks vs. Gold

But equally worth noting from the Japanese tech sell-off of late is what it reminds as to the dot.com era of yesterday and what it portends for the AI era/market of tomorrow.

Unlike the aforementioned bloodbath during the internet bubble, today's U.S. stock market is literally being kept alive by an equally game-changing technology meme with an even greater profile of over-investment ($400B this year alone by the leading tech names), which always moves from over-bought to over-sold.

With U.S. public debt crossing 40T as rates rise to levels costing Uncle Sam (i.e. you) over $3B/day to service the interest expense, the convergence of a credit crisis is about to slam into a dying PE market, an already dead private credit market and an over-valued and over-hyped AI sector.

This suggests that what we just got a glimpse of in Japan (as to both its markets and currency) is an undeniable warning of what is to come to the U.S. NASDAQ and dollar.

Be Prepared

Timing this convergence is a mug's game. Preparing for it is not.

Even if central banks like the Fed or BoJ "save" the markets with mouse-clicked trillions, the currency destruction necessary to support those "resilient" markets is robbing you in plain sight.

The Nikkei, for example, has seen an impressive 145% gain in the last five years, yet when measured in gold terms, the result was a net loss of -31%.

During that same period, the NASDAQ 100 has shown an impressive nominal return of 95%, yet when measured in gold, the net result has been a loss of -23%.

And if any of you were being told by your advisors over the last 12 years that USTs were the key to your safe retirement, the "risk-free returns" of Uncle Sam's IOU, when measured against gold, have lost you 90%.

See the theft? See the real measure of wealth?

Given the foregoing interplay of rising rates, tanking bonds, debased currencies and hyper-risk in the tech sector, an allocation to physical rather than paper gold is the only asset separating the informed from the uninformed, and the wealth-protected from the wealth-destroyed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 17:00

Elon Musk's PAC Bets Trans Issue Push Will Drive GOP Voters To The Polls

Zero Hedge -

Elon Musk's PAC Bets Trans Issue Push Will Drive GOP Voters To The Polls

Elon Musk's America PAC has opened its 2026 midterm ad campaign with a barrage of ads centered on trans issues. Musk has reportedly authorized the PAC to spend more than $100 million this cycle and is targeting four Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races: Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska. They are running online and across streaming platforms, marking the first coordinated trans-focused push of the cycle from a major Republican-aligned outside group.

Photograph: Michael Swensen/Getty Images

According to AdImpact, the firm that tracks political ad spending, trans issues have been a minor theme in GOP Senate advertising so far this cycle. America PAC's opening salvo changes that calculus, and it arrives as Republicans navigate a difficult midterm environment, with voters across party lines angry over the Iran war and the high gas prices that have followed it. Economic concerns dominate what voters tell pollsters they want candidates to address. Trans and LGBT issues barely register on those same surveys.

So, why try this now? The answer traces back to the final weeks of the 2024 presidential campaign, when a similar ad devastated Kamala Harris's presidential campaign. Trump's closing spots successfully cast Kamala Harris as out of touch because of her support for taxpayer-funded gender transitions for prison inmates and illegal immigrants, culminating in the line "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you."

Democrats have not disputed the ad's effectiveness, even in hindsight. Quentin Fulks, Harris's principal deputy campaign manager, said after the election that even though trans issues sat "at the bottom for voters," trailing the economy, immigration, crime and inflation in what people actually cared about, the "Kamala is for they/them" line effectively branded Harris as "out of touch."

According to a report from Semafor after the election, Democratic Party allies had expected it to "flop or backfire," but instead, "it inspired more than $215 million of follow-up ads, by multiple campaigns, dividing Democrats and fulfilling the Trump campaign's goal of branding Harris as an out-of-touch progressive."

That explains why America PAC is reaching for the same playbook now, and public opinion data suggests this still can be an effective strategy.

Gallup found in 2025 that 66 percent of Americans want a person's birth sex listed on documents such as passports and driver's licenses, versus 31 percent who favor listing current gender identity. Sixty-nine percent told Gallup they favor requiring transgender athletes to compete on teams matching their biological sex. Pew Research Center found nearly identical numbers on athletics, 66 percent in favor and just 15 percent opposed, with support up 8 points since 2022. A separate Pew survey published Aug. 11, 2026, found 73 percent of respondents uncomfortable, to varying degrees, with transgender athletes competing on teams that do not match their biological sex. On gender transitions for minors, Pew found 56 percent favor making it illegal for health-care professionals to provide gender-transition treatment to people under 18, up 10 points since 2022.

Whether pivoting midterm messaging to the culture war pays off depends on a variable the 2024 campaign did not have to contend with: an electorate frustrated with Republicans over the Iran war and the prices that have followed it. Trans messaging worked in 2024 as an addition to an economic argument that heavily favored Trump. America PAC is banking on it working again in this cycle as a substitute for one.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 16:40

"You Better Get Ready For... War": Socialists Call For "War In The Streets" & The End Of Capitalism

Zero Hedge -

"You Better Get Ready For... War": Socialists Call For "War In The Streets" & The End Of Capitalism

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

"You better get ready for ... war."

Across the country, radicals are openly planning for the next stage of their movement, and notably, the Democratic establishment is not part of their plans.

Despite the talk of a "Big Tent Party," socialists are riding high on a surge of support and talking purges and revolution.

In Chicago, radicals gathered for a conference on Marxism during what many view as the heyday of socialism in the United States. The Democratic Socialists of America is now larger and more powerful than at any time in our history. Socialist candidates are winning elections across the country as Democratic establishment figures from Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) to Gov. Gavin Newsom pander to the movement.

Speakers in Chicago used the conference to push supporters to the next stage in the movement, including some openly calling for violence and the end to capitalism.

University of California Santa Barbara History Professor Butch Ware said Democrats "must be destroyed" and urged attendees to be ready for "war in the streets." Notably, in postings on X, Ware has said that candidates such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed are too restrained and are being pushed by the establishment "to contain radicalism."

The professor "of Africa and Islam" whose faculty page is appropriately found under "bware" is the latest radical to dismiss the "Big Tent Party" rhetoric of establishment figures like Schumer. He declared, "The Democrats cannot be reasoned with. They must be destroyed." There is little subtlety in the message, Ware has explained: "You cannot call yourself a revolutionary and not be talking about training with weapons."

It is another example of the delusion that establishment Democrats have that they will be able to use these radicals to destroy their political enemies but not themselves.

After one election victory, socialists chanted "You're Next!" when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries's image came on big-screen televisions.

Hasan Piker has called for a purging of moderates from the Democratic Party.

Just last week, Darializa Avila Chevalier declared, "A big tent doesn't pay your rent, lower your grocery bill, or take on the corporations bleeding our country dry. Democratic socialism does."

In a video posted to X, Professor Ware called for violence, warning followers that "some of these clickety-clack revolutionaries have never been in a f*cking gunfight." He menacingly added, "Y'all ain't nowhere near ready for a war in the streets. You better get ready for both kinds of war if you stay ready, you ain't got to get ready."

This is just the latest example of the type of hate-spewing radical that university departments want to teach in higher education. While purging virtually all Republicans, conservatives, and libertarians from departments, faculty candidates cannot be too radical enough to secure positions on colleges and universities. UCSB pays Professor Ware over $211k to spread this type of lunacy.

Notably, this is the same university that saw a professor lead her students in physically assaulting pro-life advocates on campus years ago. Despite pleading guilty to criminal assault, she was not fired and later honored by the University of Oregon for her inspiring leadership.

In other events around the country such as "Socialism 2026 Conference," City University of New York Professor Ruth Gilmore said in a video, "It's capitalism we're after,...There isn't a capitalism that is somehow not racial. There isn't a capitalism that does not produce and reproduce all kinds of sexual and gender boundaries."

At my alma mater, University of Chicago professor Eman Abdelhadi, the half-sister of Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, has denounced the university and explained that she is only teaching there to bring down the system.

One year after the massacre, Professor Abdelhadi offered an "October 7th blessing" over an attack that murdered, raped, and tortured innocent men, women, and children. She was previously arrested for spitting on officers.

She added "I hope you know that we have a lot of work ahead of us and that we need each other to do that work. We have an imperative to not just imagine a better future, but to build one together. I'll see you on the streets."

What is so striking is that these radicals are not hiding their agenda or their hostility toward the Democratic Establishment. William Lawrence, who is running for Michigan's 7th Congressional District, previously called for the end of borders, the nation-state, capitalism, and told a leading moderate Democrat to "hurry up and die."

In the meantime, some Democrats are admitting that, after using the socialists to retake power, they will marginalize them in actual governing decisions. Rep. Laura Gillen (D-NY) just explained that they will have to block the "crazy" DSA stuff from actually getting to the floor for a vote.

In Rage and the Republic, I discuss how these Democratic leaders are following the same self-destructive delusions of other establishment figures in history who thought that they could use mobs against their opponents while hoping that they could survive.

Figures like Newsom have even campaigned on denouncing capitalism as "not working" as candidates like Texas Democratic Senatorial candidate James Talarico have called to "dismantle" capitalism. Figures like former Vice President Kamala Harris have dismissed loyalty to our core institutions such as the Supreme Court as mere "nostalgia."

It will not work. These figures are nothing more than "clickety-clack revolutionaries" who convince no one inside or outside the movement. By putting their elections above every other consideration, Democratic leaders are willing to endanger core institutions, values, and even capitalism itself to reacquire power. In so doing, they are embracing the very "mobocracy" that the Founders warned us against in laying the foundations of our constitutional system.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 16:20

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