Individual Economists

Undrain The Swamp: JOLTS Miss Despite Shocking Surge In Government Job Openings To Biden Admin Levels

Zero Hedge -

Undrain The Swamp: JOLTS Miss Despite Shocking Surge In Government Job Openings To Biden Admin Levels

After five straight months of JOLTS beats, including two blowout prints for April and May and zero misses since 2025...

... it was inevitable that the BLS would eventually pot out a disappointment, if only to preserve the myth of "accurate data." 

That's what happened today when in the latest JOLTS report, the US dept of labor reported that in June the US had 7.359 million job openings, down 178K from the (downward revised) May total of 7.537 million, and below the median estimate of 7.454 million.

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number of job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+97,000) and in federal government. Job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-74,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (-55,000), and mining and logging (-9,000). 

Of note, Federal government soared by 39K from 100K to 139K, the highest print not only of 2026 but the highest print going back all the way to October 2024 (i.e., when Biden was still president). 

The June drop in job openings was juxtaposed with an overall drop in June employment, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, we now have a third consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workers, and in June the surplus was 265K, the biggest surplus since the 566K in Jan 2025, and a concerning development for the broader labor market which according to most other measures continues to fire on all cylinders.

The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.

While the job openings number was weaker than expected for the first time this year, in June we saw continued strength in both hires and quits, In June the number of Quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator rose by almost 100K to 5.252MM from 5.348MM indicating a modest rise in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere, at the same time hires also rose by about 80K, from 3.153MM to 3.232MM, and followed a 110K increase in May.

It goes without saying that job openings sliding while hires are jumping, and more people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Friday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report jumped by 57K, even as the JOLTS implied number was far weaker than that. 

Overall, this was a weak mixed JOLTS report, with weakness in openings offset by strength in hires and quits, but most notably, the surge in government job openings as Trump appears to backtrack on even more of his promises, and shows that after some significant strength in the early part of of 2026, US labor market is now hitting an air pocket and this could translate into a notable miss in this Friday jobs report. Then again, it is common knowledge that JOLTS lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Friday's jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the July print will come well below expectations. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:45

CLARITY Act Failure Could Send Crypto Valuations Lower: Bernstein

Zero Hedge -

CLARITY Act Failure Could Send Crypto Valuations Lower: Bernstein

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s (CLARITY) passage are dwindling as the US Senate is scheduled to begin summer recess at the end of this week, threatening another leg down for cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein.

Bernstein said that the Senate’s failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” which may result in another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

“From a tactical standpoint, we expect the crypto market to bottom and start showing momentum towards late Q3 and early Q4 prior to the mid-terms,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph.

At the same time, however, the analysts said that Senate failure to pass the legislation may bring more proactive policy support from regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which may accelerate rulemaking initiatives under Project Crypto.

Project Crypto is a regulatory initiative first announced by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins in July 2025, which was later expanded into a joint staff initiative between the SEC and CFTC in September 2025. The initiative aims to create a workable regulatory framework for digital assets using existing agency authority while Congress finalizes crypto market legislation under the CLARITY Act.

Bernstein said that the two agencies could provide more interpretive releases tied to the taxonomy of tokens, clear rules around decentralized finance (DeFi) and accelerate the innovation exemption for issuing tokens that would be exempted from securities status during a finite period.

CLARITY Act odds decline to 31%

Bernstein’s skepticism is supported by prediction market traders who are betting against the passage of the CLARITY Act before the end of 2026.

Odds of the legislation’s passage before the end of the year are now at 27%, down 11ppt in the past week and down 13ppt in the past month, according to Polymarket, which shows about $3.7 million has been wagered on that prediction.

Meanwhile, White House officials are reportedly weighing a bipartisan ethics counterproposal received on Thursday, following weeks of negotiations between Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego.

The proposal would enable state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it fails to enforce ethics laws against federal officials, three sources familiar with the matter told crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett.  

The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has been met with pushback from the banking industry, which argued that the current draft would allow crypto firms to offer yields on stablecoins without facing the same requirements as traditional financial institutions. 

On June 26, Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the US Senate is running out of time to move the crypto market structure bill before its August recess. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:30

Waymo Robotaxi Crash Rate 68% Lower Than Human Drivers, Study Finds

Zero Hedge -

Waymo Robotaxi Crash Rate 68% Lower Than Human Drivers, Study Finds

Though they've have racked up quite a few troubling anecdotes on America's roads, Waymo robotaxis have achieved a crash rate that's far lower than what's observed when humans are driving, according to a recent study published by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. A private scientific organization funded by insurance companies, IIHS is regarded by many as a superior font of accurate scientific conclusions compared to the government-run and lobbyist-vulnerable National Highway Transportation Safety Administration. 

According to the July IIHS study, "Rise of the Machines: Crash Experiences of Highly Automated Vehicles and Human Drivers," Waymo vehicles in autonomous mode posted "police-reportable crash involvement rates" fully 68% lower than human-operated vehicles in the same areas and years. Researchers studied crash rates in Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco. Importantly, the IIHS studied data from 2021 to 2024; to the extent Waymo has improved its programming, the current relative performance may be even better. 

The Waymo edge was highest in Phoenix and Los Angeles (76% and 71% lower crash rates, respectively). San Francisco's Waymos posted a 35% lower crash rate. In a bit of a headscratcher in terms of the being a huge outlier, Waymo had a 4% higher crash rate in Austin. The study's authors note that the sample size in Austin was smaller for both Waymo and human drivers. 

Dozens of empty Waymos clogged a small street in an Atlanta neighborhood, preventing residents from leaving or returning to their homes 

Waymo vehicles really shine in regard to one type of accidents where human-driver inattention looms particularly large: The robotaxis' rate of rear-ending other cars and trucks was 91% lower than what's seen with human drivers. It's rate of being rear-ended was 40% lower; here, the result may spring from human inattention that leads to last-second hard braking that catches trailing vehicles by surprise. Waymos also sparkled in single-vehicle crashes, as the robotaxis experienced 85% fewer such crashes overall, and 81% fewer single-crash accidents with injuries. 

The encouraging IIHS report comes after Mountain View, California-headquartered Waymo has established a history of eyebrow-raising incidents that we've been all too happy to report on. In two of the more recent episodes... 

  • In June, Waymo recalled its entire fleet (then comprising 3,871 vehicles) after some of the robotaxis drove dangerously in construction zones. Incidents included speeding, driving past ramp-closure signs, and weaving between traffic cones. The company said it would tweak its 5th-generation Automated Driving System (ADS) software so it would recognize and act appropriately in construction zones. 
  • In May, 50 empty Waymo SUVs flooded a small residential street in northwest Atlanta in just an hour. Video captured a thicket of the vehicles facing both directions and simultaneously trying to figure out how to proceed.

So far, nothing as spectacular as how Douglas Quaid's wild robotaxi ride will end in 2084: 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:15

The Bond-Salesman-In-Chief Has Fired The First Shot Of The Capital Market War That Follows The Trade War

Zero Hedge -

The Bond-Salesman-In-Chief Has Fired The First Shot Of The Capital Market War That Follows The Trade War

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

US equity markets approached record highs yesterday as traders basked in the afterglow of Donald Trump’s decision to (again) call off Iran strikes in favor of diplomatic efforts. The S&P500 closed almost 1.5% higher and the NASDAQ 100 was up by almost 1.8%. Sovereign yields pushed lower across Europe and North America with Treasuries likely encouraged by comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama yesterday that Japan intended to tap the Fed’s FIMA facility to defend the Yen in the future, thereby avoiding the necessity to sell Treasuries to fund Yen purchases.

The front Brent crude future fell by more than 7%, despite the fact that there is no confirmation of material progress in loosening restrictions on global energy flows. ICE gasoil futures declined by more than 8.5% despite Russia’s ongoing diesel export ban, continued Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, the Houthis’ recent decision to spread the Iran conflict to Saudi oil infrastructure in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Rhine disrupting energy shipping and forcing freight rates higher. Similarly, Singapore gasoil spot prices were down by almost 11% yesterday. On those figures you would think all of the problems in product markets are solved. This again highlights the capriciousness of markets; it was only a few weeks ago that I was reading articles making straight-faced suggestions of an emerging oil glut.

While Hormuz certainly isn’t a Waterloo moment for Donald Trump just yet, he is obviously keen to find an offramp that satisfies key US strategic objectives of re-opening the strait without tolls, curtailing Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence, and – if at all possible – pushing Gulf states into the Abraham Accords and normalization of relations with Israel. Some progress has been made on the latter, but progress on the former two objectives continues to elude, giving this conflict more than a whiff of Middle-Eastern quagmires past.

While the Commander in Chief plays Battleship in the Gulf, the self-described bond salesman in chief, Scott Bessent, has possibly fired the first shot of the capital market war that we have long warned would follow the trade war and the now numerous proxy wars. All of these developments can be contextualized through the strategic competition between the United States and China, with Russia, the European Union, Iran, the GCC, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Israel, Australia and others playing the role of proxies, satellites, supplicants, vassals, junior partners and bit-players to the two great powers. In this respect, the US Treasury’s support of the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the BOJ in defending the Yen may have been a financial Fort Sumter moment.

In supporting Japan’s efforts to defend its currency to stave off imported inflation pressures the USA not only takes out insurance against rising borrowing costs for the US Treasury while buying up assets that Bessent considers to be undervalued relative to Japan’s improving fundamentals, it also relieves competitive pressure on US manufacturers (currently in rude health according to yesterday’s manufacturing ISM) and pulls Japan closer into the US’ strategic orbit.

This is important as the Trump administration views Japan as an important partner for countering China’s dominance in industrial production – particularly shipbuilding, steel manufacturing and rare earths processing – and both partners have an interest in preventing Japan’s reflating economy from becoming an outlet for China’s production surplus. Might we see further Japanese restrictions on Chinese imports? Could the US decision to sell EUR (even in relatively small amounts) rather than USD have been a subtle message to Europeans about US policy capabilities?

Coordinated intervention between the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury to manage the value of the Yen is perhaps the first concrete sign of the emergence of a new monetary order as foreshadowed by RaboResearch Global Strategist Michael Every several years ago in FX Wars. The post Bretton Woods system of mostly free-floating fiat with a constellation of international treaties intended to discourage state intervention and competitive devaluation has been on borrowed time due to the rise of neo-mercantilist China and the QE-driven currency devaluations of the 2010s.

Cooperation on managed exchange rates (and broader capital market dynamics) among allies may offer a path forward. However, intra-bloc accords only work if inter-bloc trade faces substantial barriers. Naturally, the US does not want to see a situation where the global role of the Dollar is undermined by developed market central banks holding larger and more diversified FX reserves, so watch as a system of “you scratch my back, I scratch yours” dollar swaplines emerges with common trade restrictions or other boons for US strategic interests as a kind of quid pro quo. Indeed, we have already seen this happen with the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ and coordinate with Israel on military matters following the extension of dollar swaplines.

So, once again we are witnessing momentous structural changes unfolding with geopolitical tensions forcing the pace. While it is certainly relevant and important, one shouldn’t be too captivated by the up/down moves of this week. What really matters is the signal for the medium to longer term.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 11:00

Bezos To Dump $4 Billion In Amazon Stock After Surge As Cramer Calls Sale A "Buzzkill"

Zero Hedge -

Bezos To Dump $4 Billion In Amazon Stock After Surge As Cramer Calls Sale A "Buzzkill"

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell 15 million shares worth roughly $4.07 billion under a prearranged trading plan, according to a Form 144 regulatory filing. The planned sale comes after Amazon shares surged about 25% over the last several trading sessions.

The shares, which Bezos acquired as founder's stock in 1994, will be sold through Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. The filing showed no stock sales by Bezos during the previous three months, although he donated 220,200 shares to nonprofits in May.

The stock's rally follows last Thursday's earnings report, which showed solid AWS growth and profitability despite an outlook that disappointed investors. Revenue reached $200.61 billion, beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate, while earnings of $5.75 per share exceeded the $1.82 consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, CNBC's Jim Cramer called the planned sale "a buzzkill."

Here are the latest Amazon insider transactions:

Bezos will still own 880.95 million Amazon shares after the sale, a stake currently valued at roughly $250 billion.

Perhaps Bezos needs another multibillion-dollar cash infusion for Blue Origin, his capital-intensive rocket company, which continues to trail Elon Musk's SpaceX.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:40

Five Killed In Latest Ukrainian Drone Strike On Moscow As Civilian Death Toll Climbs

Zero Hedge -

Five Killed In Latest Ukrainian Drone Strike On Moscow As Civilian Death Toll Climbs

Ukraine has continued to conduct long-range drone strikes focused on the Moscow region, deep inside Russian territory. Zelensky has touted that he is ramping up the military pressure on Russia, and will force it to the negotiating table to end the war "by winter".

The latest overnight strikes killed at least five people and injured ten when a drone hit an industrial zone near Moscow. Several fires erupted in the aftermath of the attack on the Novoselki industrial zone outside the Russian capital.

Damage in Moscow region, via Telegram

Moscow's regional governor Andrey Vorobyov announced on Telegram, "Sadly, there have been fatalities and injuries... I extend my sincere condolences to the families and loved ones of the deceased."

Air defenses were active in the region, and it comes amid a broader Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian industrial zones and manufacturing. According to details in Russian media:

One of the wounded remains in serious condition, with doctors describing the injuries of seven others as moderate, the governor said. Two more people declined hospitalization after being examined by doctors, he added.

The victims sustained shrapnel and blast injuries, fractures, and soft-tissue and chest wounds, Vorobyev wrote.

Fires broke out at several locations in the industrial zone, including at a warehouse, while a power substation and an administrative building were also damaged by drone debris, the governor added.

In the village of Solnyshkovo, a drone damaged a private home and a vehicle, the governor said. No one was injured, he added.

At this point, there are hundreds of drones sent on Russia each night, which Ukraine describes as retaliation for heavy Russian ballistic missile attacks on its cities.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced Tuesday morning that 320 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed inside Russia in the prior 12 hours across several regions. It has decried these as terror attacks against civilians, including a horrific drone strike on a crowded beach.

It happened Monday at the Black Sea holiday village of Arkhipo-Osipovka, Gelendzhik resort area:

The beach was packed, many vacationers lounging near the turquoise waters when the drone slammed into the white sand and burst into a fireball.

Russian officials said seven people, including three children, were killed and 58 others injured by the explosion in the Black Sea resort town of Gelendzhik on Monday. The explosion was captured on video and shared on social media, and verified by NBC News.

The civilian death toll has been mounting. Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said a total of 49 civilians have been killed and more than 340 others wounded in Ukrainian attacks inside Russia over just the past week.

Ukrainian civilians have also continued to suffer, with Russian attacks having killed three people in Sumy in the country's northeast, the head of the regional military administration said Tuesday.

"Two children and an elderly woman were killed in Russian (guided aerial bomb) strikes on Sumy tonight," Oleg Grygorov said on Telegram. "The girls were 5 and 10 years old. The children's bodies were recovered from under the rubble of their house," he described after six guided aerial bombs struck the city.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:20

US Core Factory Orders Unexpectedly Plunge Most In A Year

Zero Hedge -

US Core Factory Orders Unexpectedly Plunge Most In A Year

Despite the latest Manufacturing PMI surging to four year highs, US Factory Orders unexpectedly dropped in June (-0.3% MoM vs +0.2% MoM expected). This is the second monthly decline in the headline print in a row, but orders remain up 7.4% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Worse still, Core Factory Orders (excluding Transports), dropped 0.4% MoM (dramatically missing expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise). This is the first monthly drop since October and biggest MoM decline since April 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Orders Ex-Defense also tumbled 0.4% MoM, down for the second month in a row.

So while the soft survey data is positive, the hard data is deteriorating.

The reason for that is a familiar one in this bifurcated economy, as we showed from ISM's respondents...

  • Green ones from AI, semiconductor, electronics and machinery firms report strong demand from AI data centers, chips and defense.

  • Red ones from metals, transportation, chemicals and consumer-related sectors report weak demand, tariffs, higher costs, geopolitical risks and pricing chaos.

Simply put, the AI supply chain is booming, Defense is enthused; the rest is not.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 10:15

Bitdeer Lands $4.7B Norway Lease With a16z-, Nvidia- And Dell-Backed Volta

Zero Hedge -

Bitdeer Lands $4.7B Norway Lease With a16z-, Nvidia- And Dell-Backed Volta

Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) announced Aug. 4 that it has executed a 16-year colocation lease and services agreement for 121 IT megawatts at its Tydal, Norway campus, representing roughly $4.7 billion in contracted payments, with a renewal option that takes the potential total to $8.0 billion over 24 years. The announcement sent shares about 14% higher premarket.

The tenant is Volta Tydal AS, a subsidiary of Volta Infra Holdings, an AI infrastructure platform that emerged the same morning with $300 million in venture funding at a $2.4 billion valuation, co-led by Andreessen Horowitz and Altimeter Capital, with NVIDIA and Michael Dell participating. Dell Technologies is the technology provider at Tydal. Volta's end customer is an unnamed leading AI lab.

Bitdeer has turned an idle bitcoin mining campus into long-dated contracted revenue backed by bank credit, and it issued no equity and no warrants to do it.

Who does what Layer Party Role End customer Unnamed AI lab Buys compute. Contracted ~$10B over six years with Volta. Operator / tenant Volta Buys the NVIDIA GPUs (Dell supplies the hardware), owns and operates the compute, sells capacity to the lab. Pays Bitdeer rent. Landlord Bitdeer Owns the land, building, grid connection, power and cooling. Delivers 121 IT MW fitted to NVIDIA spec. Collects rent and service fees. Credit J.P. Morgan + one other global bank Issue ~$1.3B of letters of credit standing behind Volta's rent obligations.

Bitdeer is the landlord, not the compute operator. It does not buy or own the GPUs, so it carries no chip-obsolescence risk and no refresh cycle. It does not have to find AI customers. Under the modified gross structure it does not carry the electricity cost either, which Volta reimburses on a pass-through basis.

Bitdeer Tydal campus The terms Item Detail Contracted IT load 121 IT MW (~133 gross MW) Base term 16 years, plus one 8-year renewal option Contracted payments ~$4.7B base term; ~$8.0B with renewal Rate ~$202/kW/month average, modified gross; power reimbursed Escalators Contracted rate rises 3% a year, compounding, on both lease and services Revenue per IT MW ~$2.4M/year NOI margin (est.) ~90% Credit support ~$1.3B in letters of credit (J.P. Morgan affiliates + one other bank) Remaining capex ~$500M (~$4.0M per IT MW) Equity or warrants issued None Campus ownership retained 100% Delivery Phase 1 by Dec. 31, 2026; Phase 2 by Mar. 31, 2027 Tenant termination right No-fee exit at year 10

One line in that table needs unpacking. The 3% escalator means the rent does not stay flat. The contracted rate rises 3% every year and compounds, on the services fees as well as the base rent. So the $202/kW/month Bitdeer discloses is an average across all 16 years: the opening rate sits below it and the final-year rate well above. That is standard in long-dated data center leases, and it is why the headline total is far larger than 16 times the first year's rent.

The rate is the best in the sector

At $202/kW/month, Tydal prices at the top of the disclosed range for miner-to-AI conversions:

Deal Term Capacity Contracted value $/kW/mo Bitdeer / Volta (Tydal) 16 yr 121 IT MW $4.7B ~$202 (disclosed) TeraWulf / Anthropic (Hawesville) 20 yr ~401 MW ~$19B ~$197 (calculated) Hut 8 (Texas) 15 yr 352 MW $9.8B ~$155 (calculated) Cipher / Fluidstack (Barber Lake) 10 yr 168 IT MW ~$3B ~$149 (calculated) Cipher / AWS (Black Pearl) 15 yr 216 IT MW ~$5.5B ~$142 (calculated)

Bitdeer's $202 is stated in its Aug. 4 release as a 16-year average rate. Peer figures are ZH calculations from disclosed contract totals, terms and capacity. 

So... 

Bitdeer is selling services, not just space. This is a lease and services agreement, meaning Bitdeer operates the facility rather than simply renting it out. That is higher-margin and harder to displace than pure triple-net landlording, and it earns a rate to match. It also means the 3% escalator compounds on two revenue lines instead of one.

Norway prices above West Texas. European colocation commands a structural premium, and Tydal offers things the Permian Basin cannot: dual grid connectivity, local hydropower, an estimated PUE of approximately 1.1, and a carbon profile that matters to European customers and to an AI lab facing scrutiny on emissions. 

"This project will incorporate leading-edge NVIDIA GPU technology and frontier models from a leading AI lab into a data center that is powered exclusively through highly reliable, carbon-free energy sources," said Bitdeer CFO Michael G. Potter. 

Never Gonna Give You Up

Every converting miner faces the same problem - the tenants writing multi-billion-dollar AI checks are frequently young, private and unrated. Until that is solved, a signed lease is not something a bank will lend against. Bitdeer's competitors have solved it by selling equity: 

Cipher's Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake carries a Google backstop covering $1.4 billion of obligations. Google took warrants for roughly 24 million shares, about 5.4% of Cipher pro forma. TeraWulf's arrangements gave Google a stake of roughly 14%. Both companies bought their credit support with permanent dilution, at share prices set before the stocks re-rated.

Bitdeer got $1.3 billion of institutional credit support and issued nothing at all.

Moreover, the letters of credit are bank obligations, not tenant obligations. If Volta defaults, Bitdeer draws on J.P. Morgan and a second global institution rather than pursuing a private holding company through Norwegian courts. That $1.3 billion covers roughly five and a half years of early-term rent, and Bitdeer can terminate outright if Volta misses the credit-backstop milestones, a walk-away option most of its peers did not negotiate.

Bitdeer affiliates also retain 100% ownership of the campus, with no JV, no partial sale and no promote to a capital partner. Cipher formed a JV for its 1 GW Colchis site. TeraWulf sold its 50.1% Abernathy stake. Bitdeer kept the whole thing.

Bitdeer also intends to raise additional debt against Tydal, and expects the project financing to generate significant excess capital for other AI and HPC projects. Morgan Stanley, Barclays and Northland advised on the transaction, and leading institutions have been engaged for the financing. This is where the credit package pays off a second time. Contracted cash flows plus a bank-issued backstop is what makes a project financeable well inside what Bitdeer's corporate credit would command. Cipher priced senior secured notes at 7.125% on the strength of its Google backstop. Against only $500 million of remaining capex on a campus already energized and consented from its mining life, an over-raise is plausible.

Bitdeer also retains 47 gross MW of additional Tydal capacity, targeted for the second half of 2027 and outside this lease. It now has a marquee proof point and a live NVIDIA-spec campus with which to market it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:55

Trump Admin Drafting Ban On Chinese Optical Transceivers To Protect Data Centers From Spying

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin Drafting Ban On Chinese Optical Transceivers To Protect Data Centers From Spying

The Trump administration is preparing to slap import bans on Chinese optical transceivers, targeting a critical component for US data centers as White House officials seek to protect infrastructure supporting the AI boom from Chinese espionage, Reuters reported.

These small, pluggable connectors convert electrical signals from servers, switches, and AI chip stacks into light for transmission over fiber-optic cables, then convert the light back into electrical data at the other end. Because these modules are critical to data centers, Chinese-made transceivers could potentially allow Chinese firms to steal data, install malware, or disrupt services at US facilities.

Sources told the outlet that the Federal Communications Commission is drafting import restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers, which could take effect this year.

"Transceivers definitely pose a risk," said Divyansh Kaushik, an AI policy expert at the Washington, D.C.-based advisory firm Beacon Global Strategies. "As the data center buildout scales up, you want to make sure the data center supply chain is secure from the outset," he added.

The restrictions would affect Zhongji Innolight, which controls about 27% of the global data center transceiver market and was recently added to a Pentagon list of companies allegedly linked to China's military.

Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturers Coherent and Lumentum could benefit significantly from the measure. Coherent shares are up 18% in premarket trading, while Lumentum shares are up 14%. Applied Optoelectronics is also up 18%. 

However, as Reuters noted, those U.S. companies "lack the scale to replace Chinese suppliers immediately."

Read Goldman’s trading desk take on optical networking and transceiver stocks

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:40

Transcript: Som Seif, Purpose Unlimited

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Som Seif, Purpose Unlimited, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

 

MASTERS IN BUSINESS Guest: Som Seif, Founder & CEO, Purpose Unlimited
Host: Barry Ritholtz  •  Bloomberg Radio

 

Transcript

ANNOUNCER (00:00:02): Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:00:08): This week on the podcast, yet another banger. Som Seif is founder and CEO of Purpose Unlimited. One of their holdings is Purpose Investments — about $40 billion Canadian. He is a serial entrepreneur and financial innovator. He created the world’s first Bitcoin ETF in Canada, long before the US came up with one. He built one of the larger ETF firms in Canada, sold it to BlackRock — on and on the conversation goes, about all these fascinating things. I thought the conversation was really, really intriguing, and I think you will also. With no further ado, my conversation with Purpose Investments’ Som Seif.

Som Seif, welcome to Bloomberg.

SOM SEIF (00:01:04): Oh, Barry, it’s great to be here. And thank you for that kind introduction.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:01:07): So I’m kind of fascinated by your background, your career, the whole multiple innovations, serial entrepreneurship. But let’s roll back to the early days. You wanted to be an architect, and then you went for a bachelor’s in industrial and systems engineering from the University of Toronto. What was the original career plan?

SOM SEIF (00:01:31): Yeah, I mean, since as long as I can remember, architecture was my key goal, and that fundamentally was something that just inspired me. I loved the mix of the creative side of my brain and the — call it systems and structural, mathematical — side of my brain, and bringing them together. Design was always something exciting. The interesting thing was, now you’re faced with this decision: you apply to school for architecture and for engineering. And I went and spoke to a couple of architects, and every single one of them said, “This is a stupid career choice. You won’t be doing anything that you think you’ll be doing. It’ll be grunt work. You won’t enjoy it, and there’s no money in it.” And I, of course, said, whoa, what am I signing up for? So I said, okay, I’m gonna go do engineering with the idea that maybe I’ll switch. And fundamentally, that was not gonna happen.

I was in first year of engineering and said, okay, what is my second choice? What else? And I really loved the concept of strategy and finance. I didn’t know anything about finance, and hadn’t been learning anything about it, but I got excited about investment banking and things like that. And so ultimately, I decided that was the path I was gonna pursue. And coming out of an engineering degree, I ended up — luckily, just the timing, really uniquely, at the end of 1998 — getting an opportunity to join the biggest bank in Canada, RBC, in their investment banking division. So engineering was a really interesting path towards it. At the time, the tech bubble was happening, and I guess someone in investment banking said, hey, we need more engineers in here to tell us how to think. And the learning curve was pretty amazing, in terms of starting with nothing and basically learning on the go.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:03:24): So you spent six years at RBC helping them build out their structured products group. Tell us about that experience. What did you learn?

SOM SEIF (00:03:32): So, investment banking is one of the amazing early learning experiences, and I’ve always been in pursuit of learning and, call it, pushing myself to certain limits. Investment banking today is very hard. Investment banking 25 years ago was even harder. As a young analyst, a young individual, you’re ultimately working on amazing things, but at the same time, you’re working like a dog — 80- to 100-hour weeks. That said, there is no better place as a 22-year-old, 23-year-old, 25-year-old to ultimately have immersive learning. So it was amazing for me when I went into it.

It’s funny — as a young individual, I was an immigrant to Canada. My family was a good middle-class family, but we didn’t have stuff. So I always dreamed about this idea of all the riches and gold and things like that. And one of the things that excited me about investment banking was this idea of, hey, you’re gonna make lots of money. And the interesting thing was, during the tenure, the first few years, you start making good money for a young individual, and then you kind of realize, wait a minute, this isn’t actually motivating me. I remember succinctly: I came home — I was 25 years old, it was three in the morning, or two in the morning — and I just sat down and kind of wept, because I said, I’m working like a dog, and I’m pursuing this goal, but I’m not happy. And I had to actually go through a deep-rooted perspective of, okay, what is the thing that actually drives me? What is the thing that actually motivates me to wake up on Monday morning and skip to work, because I’m still enjoying what I’m doing? And what I realized was that the thing I was actually in pursuit of was the idea of seeing my ideas progress — seeing the things that I was doing have real, tangible outcomes.

And I go back to that principle of, what was it that excited me about architecture or design? It was this very simple principle: when you build something or you design something, you can actually see it in front of you afterwards. So I actually correlate that really specifically to what was my intrinsic motivation. At that point, I just said, look, I’m still learning. I’m having an amazing time, but am I going to ultimately achieve what I want here? And I said, I won’t. So I kind of gave myself a put, I call it. I was 25 years old, and I said, okay, I am still here learning, I’m gonna build my networks, I’m gonna do all this stuff — but if I am in seat on my 30th birthday, I’m going to resign on that day. And that kind of woke up my mind to what else is out there. And over the next number of years, I started thinking about what was going to be the next thing for me. And that ultimately came when I was 28 and started Claymore.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:06:18): So let’s talk about Claymore. You launched this in 2005. Globally, ETFs were a thing, but not the giant thing they are today. They certainly were a tiny niche product in Canada back then. What did you see that all the other banks and all the other finance bros completely missed?

SOM SEIF (00:06:37): So you’re absolutely right. In Canada specifically, there were 14 ETFs listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, basically all by Barclays iUnits — at the time, iShares. And in the United States, of course, ETFs were starting to become popular, specifically in the institutional crowd and retail crowd — firms like WisdomTree had just entered the business, and players like that. So it was not an area that was logical or, call it, clear. That said, I had the benefit that I’d actually covered asset management firms globally during my time at RBC, and I’d gotten the opportunity to cover Barclays and got to know the leadership of the organization, helped them raise some capital — but more importantly, I supported and understood what they were doing on the indexing and ETF side. And it got me really excited. I started to see the trends.

But what I struggled with was the fundamental principle of passive indexing. I really did. I actually love the principles of what indexing did. And at the time, ETFs were deemed as indexing, right? That was the concept — anything you did outside of pure indexing was a no-no. The industry players would say, “Well, this isn’t an index.” So I got really excited about the idea of what an ETF does: it’s low cost, a great product in terms of wrapper and structure, a transparent discipline in its approach, using an index. However, I just hated the fundamental principle of what market-cap indexing did, which is basically buy high and sell low, right? So around the time that I left RBC to start Claymore, I had actually read a research paper — it just serendipitously came out around the same time, in 2004 — by Rob Arnott and Jason Hsu, and we’ll spend some time on Rob, who’s a really important person in my life. And they had published this article around non-market-cap-weighted indexes —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:37): Smart beta.

SOM SEIF (00:08:38): Yes. And I read this article — I’m an engineer, so I love these technical things — and I just got excited. Basically, a couple months later, I reached out, and we went down and spent time with Rob in Pasadena. I remember Rob was a pretty big deal, but he took the time — he spent half a day with me — and I walked out of that office just having clarity on the future of what I was going to build, and more importantly, the future of where the industry opportunity was. And that was the principal starting point of the vision for building Claymore, and the future of what I felt was going to be a really amazing thing around indexing. And of course, we launched the first public investment fund on fundamental indexing, the RAFI indexes.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:09:31): Huh, really interesting. So you grow this to 34 ETFs and a couple of closed-end funds, and about $8 billion Canadian, I think — or $6 billion US. What was the hardest part of building that sort of asset manager, considering all the other products were giant bank-owned?

SOM SEIF (00:09:53): Well, Canada, of course, has many structural — I mean, it’s an amazing region for opportunity in financial services. That said, it is also highly concentrated, with the big banks and the control that they have with their distribution. So it’s a very challenging market for independents, as you can imagine. That said, I go back to the period: we had a really amazing product — no one knew what it was. I remember we’d go out in 2005, 2006, 2007, and we’d sit down and talk to advisors across the country. I’d walk into a room, and I’d have a sign-in sheet with name and email. But then I’d ask the question, “How many of you use ETFs?” And back then, it was one out of 10 who would say yes. Most people were like, “What’s an ETF?” — “It’s what, EFTs?” This was the time, right?

But I fundamentally believed what we were doing was important. And we grew — in Canada, of course; remember, we’re about one-tenth the size of the American market, so $8 billion aggregate would be like $80 billion in that timeframe. We actually, in the first couple years, grew to about a billion dollars. At the beginning of ’08, we got to about $800 million, which is a great, great outcome early on, from nothing. And then the real thing happened in 2008, and it was a really great wake-up call and, call it, learning for me. We went through 2008, and every single month in ’08, we grew positive — we had net positive sales. I think we were, despite —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:11:22): The ongoing carnage —

SOM SEIF (00:11:23): Well, despite the market environment. And in September and October specifically, we had positive net sales, and I think we were the only firm in the country that had that. The principle was that disruption was critical for us at a time when we were trying to build a challenger idea and tell a really strong narrative. We needed the complacency of our investor base — the advisor community, the institutions — to wake up and say, “Hey, wait a minute, what should I be thinking about next?” And that was a really important point. So we ended up in 2008 growing from $800 million to $1.1 billion, despite the headwind of the markets. And then in 2009, we went from $1.1 billion to $4.4 billion.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:12:04): Wow.

SOM SEIF (00:12:04): So, just an accelerant coming out of the financial crisis. The next year, we went from $4.4 billion to $5.7 billion, and then to $6.8 billion. And then ultimately, two months later, when we closed the deal with BlackRock to sell it, it was $8 billion. And the momentum was just so unbelievably strong. And the reason was because when the financial crisis occurred, people left the market and they were going to cash. And then, when they were re-entering the market, they were asking themselves, “Now what? Where do I go? What are the best investment vehicles?” And all of a sudden, ETFs became something that they were learning about, understanding, and we were right there. And it was amazing.

At the same time, we also saw the acceleration towards the trends that were happening in advice — the movement towards discretionary portfolio management. The historical mindset towards commission-oriented, new-issue-type business became challenged because of the market, and the banks and the broker-dealers wanted more stability. So advisors started to transition their practices towards more discretionary investment processes and model portfolios. And ETFs, of course, fit extremely well in this. We’ve of course seen the RIA movement coming out of that. And those were an amazing backdrop of trends that just drove the market and, in parallel, the ETF industry alongside of it. It’s been an unbelievable number of years for everyone.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:27): Really interesting. So the sale to BlackRock — what motivated the exit? What was the process like? And how hard was it to let go of this thing that you had built?

SOM SEIF (00:13:39): Very hard. So my financial partner in the, call it, latter years was a firm called Guggenheim Partners —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:50): Oh, sure.

SOM SEIF (00:13:51): An amazing partner, an organization I worked really well with, and I’m really proud of the relationship we built there. And the interesting thing was, of course, I had sort of approached them and said, “Let me buy you out.” They’d had a great outcome, and it was a wonderful outcome, but we just sort of couldn’t get to a price that made sense. So we decided to go through a process, and I, at the time, felt, okay, we’ll run a process, but I’m gonna also be a buyer in the process. And we agreed to that. At the end of the day, though, the process was very robust. BlackRock was a leading partner in that. And I remember pivoting multiple times, as the price kept going up, on who my partner was gonna be to finance my buyout. And then at the end — I remember, in December of 2011, it was my daughter’s birthday, and I was on the phone with one of my strategic partners around the purchase. We were having a conversation about strategy, execution plan. And I got off the phone, I walked down to my wife, and I said, “I’m holding on too much. The price has gotten well above what my target price was. I’m being too emotional. I think the right thing to do is to sell.” So I called the bankers, and I said, “I’ll put my name behind the BlackRock bid.” I flew down to New York on January 2nd. We spent a few days in a room negotiating the purchase and sale agreement. And we announced the deal, I think, on January 11th, and closed the deal on March 2nd.

And that was — it was a really difficult period for me. I had a chip on my shoulder. I built this thing — you used the words “serial entrepreneur” earlier, and I’ve actually never believed I’m a serial entrepreneur. I don’t build businesses to build businesses. I build businesses because I truly love what I do. I’m in pursuit of really building things that have endurance, have great value to our customers, that really think about changing the industry. And so this was a moment where I felt like something was being ripped out of me. And so I had a chip on my shoulder. We closed the transaction, and I said, I need to take the time. I actually ended up building the business plan for what I was gonna do next — which ultimately was Purpose — within 30 days. But I said to myself, if I start today, I’m going to fail, because I’m not doing it for the right motivation. I’m doing it for the wrong reasons — I wanna do it because I’m in pursuit of getting back in the business. So I ended up consulting for the regulator for a couple weeks, and then I ultimately went with my wife for three months overseas, to Southeast Asia. And I detached. Back then, we had BlackBerrys — I probably still have a BlackBerry; people famously know I love BlackBerrys — but I had a BlackBerry, and I turned it off, and no one could get ahold of me. We went throughout Southeast Asia, and it was the greatest thing. And I said to myself, if I come back and I have the energy and excitement around this business plan, then I’m gonna do it. And of course, we came back, and once we landed in North America, you get all the texts and all the news, and my energy just started to really powerfully go up. And I said, okay, let’s go. And I registered Purpose and started the business plan.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:16:50): So we’re gonna talk in a little bit about why I think you’re a serial entrepreneur. But you said something that I’m kind of fascinated by, and it requires a degree of self-awareness that many people in our industry sometimes don’t have — I don’t wanna say always don’t have; we all have blind spots. You said you became aware that you were too emotional, too self-involved — you were holding on too tightly. How did you come to that realization? Listeners are bored of hearing me talk about my early days on a trading desk, but I became very aware that, oh, this is just way too much fun — you’re trading for the dopamine hit, not for P&L. You either have to become more disciplined or shift your career. What was that insight that led you to say, oh, I’m gripping this way too tightly?

SOM SEIF (00:17:53): So I think self-reflection is one of the great virtues that we all should have. It’s one of the things I think often people don’t have enough of. And I actually think it’s something that requires anchoring, sort of early on, to the kind of goals and the things that matter to you, so you’re disciplined around what you’re self-reflecting around. And it’s hard — as humans, we’re not trained, our mental state is not trained this way. So it’s just something that I feel very confident in my ability to do — constantly be asking myself: Am I on the right track? Am I doing the right things? Am I pursuing the right goals? Am I going to achieve the things that I want to achieve on the path I’m on? I think it’s a critical learning, and the growth mindset that comes with that curiosity and willingness to be vulnerable is critical as a human. So this is, I think, a really important thing.

And I think our industry can always use that, because I love the financial services industry — one, because it starts with a really amazing mission. We are here in service of individuals, to help them ultimately achieve their outcomes, their goals. I mean, it is such an unbelievably high-mission industry, and we don’t do enough to talk about that. Instead, we talk too much about ourselves. We’re self-centered. We talk about, “Hey, let me tell you about me — and now that I’m done talking about me, let me talk to you more about me.” And you go to someone’s website — it’s always about me, me, me. It’s never about the customer. And so there’s this amazing opportunity as an industry to step back, reflect, and say: Why are we here? What’s the actual job that we are here to do? And it is ultimately in service of individuals and their outcomes, a hundred percent. And we complicate that so much. And so I think self-reflection on that, as an industry, is a big opportunity, and those who get it are those who stand out and differentiate more than anybody else.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:19:43): Huh, really, really fascinating. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Som Seif, founder and CEO of Purpose Investments, discussing financial innovation. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. I’m speaking with Som Seif. He is the founder and CEO of Purpose Investments. So we were talking earlier — you sold Claymore to BlackRock, and instead of taking a couple of years off, a month or two later, you essentially start Purpose, as well as co-founding Wealthsimple. So many people take a breather after an exit. Why go straight back in? And why two companies at once?

SOM SEIF (00:20:35): So, as I said earlier, I had a very clear eye on what I wanted to do next. I was really excited about where the industry was going, what we were doing, the momentum we were seeing. And it felt like now I had this amazing gift: I was blessed with a blank piece of paper. And when you have a blank piece of paper — oftentimes businesses wanna keep evolving, but you have to kind of deal with your legacy and technical debts and things like that. So I felt, blank piece of paper — I get to decide how I would start from scratch. And so I had this great energy, but I looked at both the continued evolution of the modernization of investment management, and I also saw a bigger-picture opportunity in wealth management. I said the opportunity is not just, “Let’s build asset management products.”

Because when I started Claymore, I came at it from a technical engineering perspective. And I said, when I look at all the billboards, and I look at all the advertising, all it says is, “Hey, we beat the market. We did this.” And I said, okay, well, the job to be done is to beat the markets — and I thought that’s what we were supposed to do. So I was in pursuit of building a product and a business that ultimately solved for helping people beat the markets. What I realized — and one of my great stories around this — was that the first product we launched was the Canadian RAFI Fundamental Index fund. And we launched that, and it was amazing. But it hit its five-year numbers in 2010, early 2011 — and of course, at five years, you start to see a real track record. And at the time, it was the number two Canadian equity fund. It beat every active fund and the main index — it outperformed by 200 basis points. And that’s a great accolade, of course, in our industry — that’s what you’re really excited about. And I felt, wait a minute, I actually don’t know if we actually did anything, because it went down in 2008 just like the main index — 35%, or whatever it was. And I also looked at the journey. I said, if someone had bought it on day one, when we launched it, and held it all through those five years, they would’ve received that return. But the reality of human nature was that they were buying it at different times. When they got fearful, they were selling it. And their return was very different than the fund’s return. And I asked myself, did we actually change the industry? Did we do anything? Yes, we did something great — technically, the product was excellent; we were moving the needle on how the industry operates — but we weren’t changing the way the client and the customer were experiencing what we did.

And so that informed me. And at the same time — I told you Guggenheim was our partner — they had been working on the wealth part of their business with Danny Kahneman. And I had this wonderful gift, again, of the opportunity to learn and understand how Danny was brought in to help them understand how to help billionaires and wealthy families — call it patriarchs and matriarchs — understand the transition from wealth creation to wealth management. And it was so powerful, and the principles of what Danny talked about really resonated with me. I became a student of behavioral science, and that became really paramount to my view of what a modern asset management firm needs to think about — which is not just beat the markets, but develop investment products that actually have outcomes and goal orientation towards them. How do you help advisors and investors ultimately communicate together and work collaboratively around the actual goal the customers are asking us to do — which is help them meet their goals? And so I just felt the asset management industry and the wealth industry both could ultimately optimize around that. And that was what Purpose’s mission was gonna be around: outcome-oriented, modern investment management, optimizing for all the inputs in how we manage money — not being active, not being passive. And then second is, how do we help restructure the way wealth management could ultimately be oriented towards the customer journey, as opposed to, “Hey, we’re just gonna give you a 60/40 portfolio”?

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:24:23): Huh, really, really fascinating. Tell us a little bit about Wealthsimple, which I described earlier as the default investing app for a young generation of Canadians. What did you see, before apps like Robinhood were big and successful, that was a thing that young people wanted?

SOM SEIF (00:24:44): Yeah. So the principal insight that I sort of had was, if you looked at the way that the industry was operating, one of the big negatives was that, because the industry made so much money — the margins were so good — we actually relied, in a lazy way, on what we call average economics. So what does that mean? Where do you see that? It comes out as: “On average, I like to run money for bigger customers. On average, my bigger customers make me more money. And on average, my smaller customers don’t make me money.” And how does that show up? Smaller customers get treated poorly, get high fees, get relegated to low-quality services, and larger investors ultimately get all the value — and people were gravitating towards, hey, minimums and big fees and big services for high net worth and ultra high net worth. And I just felt that was stupid.

The only economics class I took in engineering was something called ABC economics — and what that is, is actually activity-based cost economics. So, the idea of unit economics. And I said, what we need to understand in this industry is — I actually disagree that small accounts don’t make you money. I just think that the systems, the principles, the infrastructure of the industry are poorly designed to serve smaller clients. And so what I felt my whole wealth model was, was: How do we restructure the infrastructure of the industry? How do we think about it from a unit-economics perspective, using technology and structure and pipes that would ultimately allow for that? And then what you do is bifurcate the value for the different segments of customers — from early-stage customers, to mass affluent, all the way to ultra high net worth — based on a service-level offering. And the service-level offering would change and increase based on the needs of those customers. So that was the principle. And I said, at the earliest stage — if you’re 20 years old, 25 years old — this is the most amazing period to build for. But the industry was treating them awfully. So I said, let’s go build this.

And so we started with the technology, the infrastructure. And what Wealthsimple has done is really unbelievable. It has become, in Canada, the most competitive platform in financial services against the big six Canadian banks. Canada has never seen anything like this before. And it all is rooted in serving customers where they need us to serve them — right when they’re getting started, or along the earliest stage of their journey — and then helping them compound not only their wealth, but also the overall financial experience, as they grow from 25 to 30, 35, 40. It has been an amazing experience. And today, Wealthsimple — I think we run about $150 billion, but we are doing more in net deposits than the biggest bank in Canada, RBC. That is an unbelievable statistic, and I’m proud of what that team and what the organization are doing to challenge the industry and change the way Canadians are served.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:27:37): So let’s stay with Wealthsimple a minute, because initially, I assumed this was kind of a Robinhood-like app, with free trading and gamification, and, you know, up to but not quite sports betting — that sort of “Hey, this isn’t gonna get anybody to their goals; it’s fun, entertaining stuff during the lockdown of the pandemic.” Tell us about Wealthsimple in terms of the differences with an app like Robinhood.

SOM SEIF (00:28:07): Yeah. So the starting point, actually, is you start with the customer where they need you the most, right? When you’re 25 or 30, you’re either just getting started — you might have $5,000, $10,000, $20,000, $30,000 — and the principle of it is you want to help them ultimately get going, building a discipline, a structure. So we have the managed-money programs, where you open an account very simply and clearly, you basically build your portfolio, and your portfolio is basically a glide path on the markets. And then you surround that with the types of services and solutions — so direct trading accounts, cash management, credit cards, all the crypto, things like that, that are really important.

So my principle is, there’s always a view of tension around these things. I come at it from a different view, which is: these are things that people are going to be in pursuit of. And what you want as an organization is not to duck your head in the sand at any stage. If you’re an advisor saying, “Hey, I don’t do crypto,” it’s actually a wrong message, because your customers are going to be in pursuit of it. We know that 60, 70% of high-net-worth individuals have a direct account, and many of them are curious and engaged in buying interesting areas like that. So I think an advisor firm — or any firm, a financial services firm — has to find a way to balance the foundations of what is good long-term, call it disciplined, investing, along with satiating the needs and the desires of what an individual wants, so that they don’t turn their head to “I need something different.” And that actually comes from the mindset of: find a safe and secure way to do those types of things on behalf of the customers, and educate them, and size it effectively. So, for example, Wealthsimple recently got approval to do prediction markets, and this is a really high-tension area — people have a binary view of this. And my view is, if customers are going to be doing it, you want them to do it with you, in a safe and secure way, rather than to do it elsewhere. And that’s how you have to ultimately be building. But at the same time, the whole business is oriented around helping someone where they need it the most around their financial journey, so they can ultimately achieve their goals. That’s it.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:30:14): So, this discussion about whether or not you’re a serial entrepreneur — I have to click through a bunch of things that you’ve built that are fascinating, starting with the world’s first spot Bitcoin ETF, back in 2021, years before the US approved one. It crossed a billion dollars in the first month. How did you get the Canadian regulators to approve this? How’d you make them comfortable three years before the SEC was comfortable?

SOM SEIF (00:30:48): So first off, I have had a deep thesis on crypto for a long time, and that’s the starting point — I wasn’t doing it because, “Hey, cool idea du jour — let’s launch this and throw something against the wall.” In 2016, just like most people, I’d been asked about Bitcoin, and I was like, I don’t know, it looks like a sort of scammy thing. And then I sort of self-reflected and said, wait a minute, people are actually asking my opinion on this. I should go and do some research. So I spent the time learning and understanding the space. Actually, the best way to do that is make an investment. And over the next 12 months, I just became this student of what was happening. And what really excited me was, of course, Ethereum, which is this, call it, sister technology that was really around taking what Bitcoin had done and really expanding the capabilities of it around smart contracts and all the rest. And so I got very excited about that.

And so what I said was, we’re so early in this — the infrastructure’s not there; the fraud risks, all of it, for investors are gonna be so high. So I actually launched the first publicly traded vehicle on Ethereum, called Ether Capital. I partnered with a group of people, and I said, we’re gonna raise the money, we’re gonna buy Ether on the balance sheet, effectively — we’ve seen these now become more popular in the last number of years, but it was the first one, and we did this in 2018. And I’ll tell you, it was an amazing thing. And my message was, we’re gonna find a safe and secure way for people to co-invest alongside of us on this really great journey, because of the asymmetric opportunity of this bet. That informed me on so much. And we used to do self-custody in that corporation, all the rest of it. And then, at some point, we started to see the infrastructure change, and that’s when we went into the regulator and said, look, there’s an opportunity here. The infrastructure’s changing around how you can custody and fit this into a liquid ETF structure. We worked with them for nine months and ultimately got them comfortable.

And this is a really important principle that I believe: as a registrant, as a money manager, we have great ideas, great innovation, and as long as our ideas are aligned with where the regulator wants the future to go, it’s really important to engage with the regulator and have that dual relationship — that idea of helping them, educating them on where we need to get to. And so that was the kind of work we’ve done all throughout my career. And we did that on crypto, and frankly, we’re really excited that we got the opportunity to launch it. And that model, what we did, actually ultimately informed the series of products that launched in the US a couple years later, on how ultimately to structure ETFs in the crypto space. And of course, the industry has grown, and we’ve moved an asset from the fringe all the way to the core — which is what ultimately my thesis was, in a deep way.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:33:34): And Ether Capital today is in what structure?

SOM SEIF (00:33:37): We actually converted it from that corporation to an ETF, once that was available. And again, there, we built staking into it — and those things weren’t available in an ETF form, or, call it, doable, until they were. And when they were, we ultimately moved to the most efficient vehicle, which is the ETF structure.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:33:54): Let’s talk about the Longevity Pension Fund, launched in 2021 — the world’s first income-for-life mutual fund, which uses longevity risk pooling to pay lifetime income, like a defined-benefit pension. Investors include Allianz and OMERS. How is this different from what, in the US, we think of as traditional annuities?

SOM SEIF (00:34:20): So, first off, this was my original thesis on Purpose, which was: the industry was all solving for the accumulation phase — let’s build investment products to, call it, solve for how do we save money — but no one was really solving, within the asset management industry, around the challenges of decumulation. And it was kind of left to the insurers, with the annuities, and with defined-benefit pensions and such. And I just felt there was this gap there that was really critical, and you need to deeply understand the principles of how longevity and structure and all the rest of it were gonna be critical in there. And so I asked the team — I said, we need to solve for decumulation. And we were in pursuit of it; we were spending a lot of time working on it. Ultimately, we came across a structure, and I just got really excited. And on the principles, we had to go to the regulator again and say, there are some exemptions we need to make this work.

If I step back for a moment: the greatest financial product ever created in our business — in the financial industry — is the defined-benefit pension plan. And frankly, if you go back to what that represented, it was such an amazing bargain. You join a company; the company says, we will, in an institutional way, organize to have a savings program alongside of your career. And it will not only solve for your savings needs while you’re working, but once you retire, it will also solve for your income longevity for as long as you live — and in some cases, your spouse’s. If you think about the journey of a customer, it is the most unbelievably comforting and principled thing that we’ve done. And the industry has done everything over the last 40 years to break that down —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:36:03): Kill it, yeah.

SOM SEIF (00:36:04): — with the concept of, “Hey, we’re giving you choice.” And that has been so bad for people. So I always believed that we needed to bring the system back. If every Canadian or every American had access to a defined-benefit pension fund, 95% of them would be unbelievably better off. The reality is, it’s not good for the industry — the fragmentation allows for agency to increase. And so what I’ve always said is, how do we bring this back into the structure? And so the Longevity Pension Fund was designed around: How do we build a pension plan for all? How do we do that in a mutual fund structure, which is accessible? The annuity structure — of course, it works similarly. The problem is it has this structure where you have to go off-book for an advisor, so advisors don’t really like them. Investors have to ultimately go through an insurance structure, and it’s individualized. Whereas the defined-benefit pension plan is a pool. And so, when you get longevity risk pooling like that, which is done in a defined-benefit pension plan — why couldn’t you do that in a mutual fund? And that was our principle. And so we designed that. It’s the first fund to really incorporate longevity risk pooling — so, putting lives together with a mutual goal of: I’m putting money to work to ultimately solve for my lifetime comfort, that I’m gonna have income for life, and if I die early, I’m ultimately supporting the cohort, but I’m getting what I needed from it.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:37:26): So I want to click through four other innovative products, but I don’t wanna spend all week on it. Let’s click through these four quickly, starting with cash-management ETFs.

SOM SEIF (00:37:38): Yeah. So cash is something that, of course, everybody needs access to. So we had launched the first money-market ETF when I was running Claymore. When I came back with Purpose, we saw the movement — deposit rates were much higher than money markets. So we actually went in — the unique thing we did there was we went and built an ETF that linked to a deposit account, not to a security. So it’s actually one of the first of its kind. And that was a hugely important thing back in 2014, and of course, the cash-management industry has grown dramatically. We haven’t seen this in the United States yet — so we haven’t seen deposit-based cash ETFs. We’ve seen money-market-based ETFs, but we haven’t seen deposit-based. So it’s based on the buck — the value doesn’t fluctuate, it increases — and it goes right into the bank deposits of several banks, and you get, therefore, a higher rate. So we were really, really proud of that innovation. And it goes to show the kind of first-principles mindset that our organization always thinks about, which is solving problems. Because many advisors moving to discretionary were saying, “I wanna bulk-trade cash, but my organization isn’t making it easy.”

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:38:46): You have to sweep it in from the custodian at night. It really should be capable of being automated and maximizing yield without increasing risk. But there are just a million impediments in the way.

SOM SEIF (00:39:00): “I sell QQQs, and I want to go into cash in my rebalance of my model — my administrative assistant has to go and do it basically account by account.” Now, with the ETF, you’re able to go from QQQs to cash, and then back to QQQs, or whatever you were doing, in just a simple, single trade.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:39:18): Let’s talk about option-based income products. I’ve never been a fan of this as a brokerage product. It just felt like there was so much cost, so much commission built into it. When you’re dealing with relatively tight margins, it’s a challenge as a retail investor to derive any value out of it — real value. It’s certainly great for generating fees. How do you manage an option-based income product that works for the retail investor?

SOM SEIF (00:39:50): So let’s start with the principle of why, right? I believe that options and derivatives actually play a really important role in the management of portfolios and return streams. So it goes back to that principle of: Can you design outcomes, and the trade-offs that come with options? Because that’s ultimately what you’re doing, whether it’s call options or put options. And so, for an investment return stream that you’re designing, options can be really powerful. That said — to your point — they’re high-friction for an advisor, very hard to execute across your business; and two, for individuals, it’s very hard and very expensive: the spreads and the costs and the sizing. But what option structures are really designed for is ETFs and institutional money management, in a great way, because you can do really amazing programs at scale.

So we’ve been doing these for 25 years — back when I was at RBC, we used to help firms build them; at Claymore, I built them; and then at Purpose, we’ve done it. And I find that they are so perfectly designed for the structural outcome that you want to ultimately create and manipulate in your return stream. But they do come with trade-offs. I’ll give you a great example. One of the first things, starting in my career, in talking to advisors — the thing that the old-school advisor would say is, “Oh, I write put options or call options for a couple of my clients on their large names, but I can’t do it for all my clients.” And I’d say, “Why do you do that?” “Well, because I’m owning this stock, and if I’m gonna own it for the next 10 years, why not generate some income along the way?” And that was a really important mindset that people had — but they couldn’t do it across their business. And I said, well, if I own a name like a JPMorgan, and I’m gonna own it — I love JPMorgan — the actual optimal way to own JPMorgan is to have 80% long JPMorgan and a 20% covered-call overlay on JPMorgan, so that you’re generating the long-term beta of JPMorgan, plus you’re generating some ongoing return from the option income as volatility is there, and you’re taking advantage of the volatility to generate return stream. And that’s the best way, optimally, from a risk-adjusted basis, to generally own most stocks. So how do you do that? And so you design something called Yield Shares, which was designed specifically around the single-name stocks that people most love, and then you write options against them to generate the option income, so that it complements a long-only position in the stock.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:42:07): How do you avoid getting called away when the stock has a sudden surge? And the problem isn’t merely, hey, you can always go out and re-buy it — but now you have a giant capital gains hit you have to pay when the stock gets called.

SOM SEIF (00:42:21): So, one thing in Canada is we don’t actually have the difference between short- and long-term capital gains. So it’s a really nice thing — you can buy and sell something in a day and ultimately get capital gains treatment at the lowest rate. Our rate is a little higher, but still —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:42:35): We’re 23% short-term, 30% long-term.

SOM SEIF (00:42:37): So our long-term is 25, 27%. The principal mindset, though, is this is what institutional programs are really great at. You don’t write one option on one strike price on one position — you stack them. So you might have —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:42:52): It’s a whole matrix — different strikes, different dates.

SOM SEIF (00:42:55): Exactly. And then, with technology today, you can optimize all the structural elements of: Do you roll it for tax efficiency? Do you ultimately buy it back? Where along the curve and option do you basically roll the capital into at any point? So you’re constantly in this, call it, aging of your portfolio overlay, which is really important. That’s what institutional money management needs to do. If you’re just singularly buying one option on one strike, that’s actually a very low-quality execution.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:43:21): Yeah, we used to see a lot of that on the brokerage side. So the single-stock Yield Shares — how many different versions of this are there? Or are they all tossed into one ETF?

SOM SEIF (00:43:30): No, we have single names. So I think we might be at like 20-something — 25? I don’t know the exact number, but it’s north of 20 Canadian and US names, and they’ve been very popular — they’ve been very popular with both advisors and direct investors.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:43:46): Huh, really interesting. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Som Seif, CEO and founder of Purpose Investments, discussing why he built Purpose Unlimited. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra-special guest this week is Som Seif. He is the founder and CEO of Purpose Unlimited, which also owns Purpose Investments. He has founded and sold a variety of different companies over the past — let’s call it 20, almost 25 years. So Purpose is now about $31, $32 billion Canadian — or about $22 billion US — across ETFs, cash, alternatives, private assets, et cetera. Tell us the problem that Purpose is trying to solve for your clients.

SOM SEIF (00:44:45): Sure. So, in total, Purpose actually runs around $40 billion now.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:44:48): $40 billion?

SOM SEIF (00:44:50): Yeah, on the platform. So, on the asset management side, just over $30 billion, and on the wealth side, now just around $10 billion, and growing quite fast. And the principal mindset has always been — so, on the asset management side — let’s build a modernization of investment management, and products and services to meet clients where they need to be. How do we help advisors and investors build more resilient portfolios? Not just long-only equities and long-only bonds, but how do you optimize for the types of return streams that support a world where potentially bonds aren’t your protective asset? How do you optimize for the types of return streams that ultimately are designed around an outcome, as opposed to just a return of a beta? And so those are the first start. And we have the inputs of — we care about not only the quality of the investment products that we manufacture, but also the, call it, artisan quality of our investment input: the team, the capabilities, the process for investment strategy, using both quantitative methods and active methods in each of the different categories.

I think the second component was, then, we have this big picture that goes back to this system. I use the reference to the defined-benefit pension plan as a phenomenal product — how do we redesign the way advice and investment management work together on ultimately achieving a client’s goal? And so we’ve designed this whole infrastructure around wealth management to support, one, the movement towards independent wealth management. So, as you know, in the United States, you’ve seen the US RIA segment; Canada has a nascent segment there, and we saw this really important movement towards — and a need for — that. So we built the infrastructure to support a movement towards independent wealth management, but then also the services and the tools and the capabilities over and above that, to support advisors in basically driving their businesses towards more planning-based, portfolio-outcome-oriented investment management and wealth management and experiences — as opposed to, “I pick better stocks than the next guy; I’m better at delivering better returns” — more around, how do we help customers ultimately achieve their goals? And so we’ve built all of this technology and systems around that outcome.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:46:54): So I like the idea of emphasizing outcomes over benchmarks, but we have half a century, maybe longer, of organizing portfolios around those benchmarks and trying to beat the index. Explain what’s wrong with that approach.

SOM SEIF (00:47:13): Well, it goes back to the behavioral science part — that’s first. And second was, it’s also a structural thing. If you go back to the last 10 years or so, when I looked at the space, I felt that the industry had become a little bit complacent towards this idea that the, call it, best and optimal portfolio was a 60/40 portfolio. And the reason was, if you actually panned yourself out and looked at the returns of the 60/40 portfolio going back 100, 110 years — which we did the research on — it actually only met its long-term goal of 7% in five of, call it, 11 or so decades. And this was a couple years ago that we did that research. And of those five, three of them were in the period of 1980 to 2020. And so I felt that that had created this bias — an anchoring bias — in, call it, the industry.

You know, Barry, the one thing you realize about our industry is that very few people have a historical experience beyond 1980. Most people’s career spans are from 1980 onwards. And so you get biased towards what you know, what you see. What do you see when interest rates go up? They pretty rapidly go back down. When you look at any three- or four-year cycle, the 60/40 portfolio generally was giving you positive returns. And so that meant, hey, that’s an optimal way to invest. I looked at it and said, wait a minute — if you actually look at periods where interest rates not just go up a little bit and then come back down, but actually go up and stay up, how does that affect bond portfolios? How does that affect the overall balanced portfolio? And so I said that we needed to be prepared for that. And that was the starting point.

The second note was this behavioral component. And I just said, look, at the end of the day, we’ve kind of lost touch with what the customer is actually asking us to do. And the customer wakes up and says, “Look, what I care about is, I want to know that when I wake up, I’m going to be okay — and you need to be in the business of serving me on helping me solve that question: Am I going to be okay?” And like a pension plan, you should have a liability — a goal — and you should have an input, which is your portfolio: your savings program and your portfolio, all designed around, are you going to be okay? And I felt that the idea that we should wake up and say, “Hey, we’re here to beat the S&P 500,” or “We’re here to beat some benchmark,” was a silly concept. All that matters to a customer is: Am I going to be okay? And everything we do every day should be in service of that. And so that’s how I always looked at it. And the principle of the design of an investment firm should be around the kinds of programs and asset strategies that help an advisor build better portfolios to answer the question of “Am I going to be okay?” with their customers.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:49:56): So I have so many different ways to go with this that I’m very enthusiastic about. Maybe we’ll put a pin in the whole idea of out-of-sample testing, because everybody is so framed by — it’s not just their own hindsight bias, but the recency bias of what they just experienced. It has such a big issue. But let’s stick with the concept of behavioral finance and the 60/40. I have gotten a lot of pushback for saying, if you’re in your twenties, thirties, forties, do you really need bonds? If you are not gonna retire for — well, a 20-something-year-old may not retire for 50 years. Yeah, there’s some emotional salve from some ballast that’s uncorrelated and doesn’t have the volatility of equities. But if I go back in time — forget what the market did — if I was 20 today, I wouldn’t own a single bond. And if I was 75 today, I would own a whole lot more tax-free munis. So it raises the question: 60/40 — does that make sense for — forget the 20-year-old — for anybody under 50?

SOM SEIF (00:51:10): It’s actually a really important question. And in many cases, the answer is no, we don’t need bonds. And the reality of it is that, if you look at the last five, six years, bonds wouldn’t have done you any good. And so, especially if you’re in an environment like we’re in right now — where the greatest risk right now to a portfolio oftentimes is the volatility, the uncertainty, and interest rates and inflation. Well, this was logical in 2018, 2019, when interest rates —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:51:37): Went to zero, right?

SOM SEIF (00:51:38): Right.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:51:38): You go from 1980 to 2020 — 40 years of bond appreciation.

SOM SEIF (00:51:42): Phenomenal. Yeah. I mean, that was the —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:51:43): That’s a unique era.

SOM SEIF (00:51:45): But the thing that was the big driving force was the movement between the seventies to the eighties, when interest rates spiked into the teens. That was the thing that set up, of course, the next 40 years of declining interest rates. And so you have to step back and have that context. It’s just like timing the market. The reality is that, if you had bought in the mid-seventies, you would’ve had a horrible experience with that portfolio structure.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:52:08): There’s pre- and post-Paul Volcker. And that’s the defining element.

SOM SEIF (00:52:12): It’s actually pre and post the economic situation that was happening, that led to an inflationary spike that we ultimately had to address. And that was what you were dealing with. But, to your point, recency bias drove people to believe that this was the optimal way to invest. I think, for an individual, again, it goes back to — okay, yes, equity is a hope-based strategy. Investing is a hope-based strategy. And when you’re in your twenties and thirties and forties — and even potentially, you know, fifties — because I’d say, call it 20 years before retirement, like a pension plan, T-minus-20 years: anything T-minus-20-years-plus, you have a lot of room for hope. Hope is a wonderful thing that you should take advantage of, because ultimately, you want strength and momentum, and you have the time to get it right. But once you get into that T-minus-20 period, that’s the period where you’d better have some structure and discipline in what you’re ultimately achieving to get to T. Because the one good thing is, T can move — that’s the time of retirement. That can move. You could say it’s 65, but if you really need to, and your advisor says, “Hey, it’s a bad time — you need to move to 67,” you can move to 67. And if it’s going really well, we can move it to 63. But T-minus-20 is a really important window where structure and discipline in your portfolio have to be designed. Everything before that — absolutely, you can take as much hope as you want, you can take as much risk as you want, because you haven’t entered that window. That’s how I look at it.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:53:31): Huh, really interesting. As someone who’s partial to the math and science half of my brain, I’m curious how you reconcile the rigorous, structured environment of being an engineer — like, there is an internal logic and a set of hard mathematical principles that govern that — how do you reconcile that with the squishy, emotional side of all of Danny Kahneman’s teachings? Which is: hey, this is just how we are built; we weren’t made for this sort of decision-making.

SOM SEIF (00:54:13): Yeah. I think the beauty of when you marry the first-principles — call it linear — kind of thinking around what engineering can do, and then you apply that with the non-linearity of human behaviors, is that it’s actually a phenomenal, call it, mixture of thinking. And that’s what you want. You want those multiple inputs to basically change your mental model of how to design and think. What I love about engineering in general is it is a reverse-engineering mindset. It is going back to the hypothesis, the scientific method, right? Which is: I have an idea of what the answer will be, but I’m going to do everything I can to prove that. So if you apply that to any problem — which is, hey, I’d like to solve for this problem, I have an idea of how to solve it — then you reverse-engineer how to ultimately get there, or you build around the scientific method of it. It’s a wonderful way to approach problem-solving in general.

And then you bring in the inputs. So one of the things we did at Purpose is we’ve actually brought on behavioral scientists to actually support the organization in the way we think about product design, the way we think about marketing, and all those things that we do — because it actually helps influence the mental models and the way that we make decisions. Those are really powerful. So I just believe it goes back to that original comment around the creative mind and the, call it, structured, disciplined mind. I think if you bring those two together, it’s a very powerful mixture to build with.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:55:30): Really, really interesting. So we’ve been speaking for an hour, and artificial intelligence has not come up — which I think is a first this year. How do you think about AI from a managerial perspective? How do you think about it from an investment perspective? What do you see as the impact of this going forward? I appreciate the opportunity to ask someone who’s an engineer about this, because essentially, this is software engineering at the highest level.

SOM SEIF (00:56:04): So I’ve never been more excited in my career. I feel a sense of energy in the last nine months, specifically coming into 2026, that I’ve just been excited about, because of what this new technology is enabling us to do. And, more importantly, it’s not just how do we build features, or solve some problems, or create a little bit of incremental productivity. It is about the grassroots — go to first principles — of how should we ultimately design the way we work, the way we optimize our business, in and around a technology re-platforming. It would be no different than in 2000, if you were going through this period when the internet was now becoming real and scalable, and you were sitting there as a retailer or any other business: if you just thought about the historical way to run a business, and I’ve got this new thing — I think you lost. Whereas if you actually said, no, no, I need to redesign the way I work for this new platform — the mobile era, which was a different one: same thing, you need to redesign the way you work. And AI is the same thing.

So we at Purpose have been really deeply embedding it in the way we operate the company. The first thing is, we are effectively driving forward-deployed engineering, data science, and product across the whole organization. We are driving into smaller teams and squads. We are rolling that out across everything. And we are driving the company with this mindset that what a modern organization needs to design around is vulnerability — the ability to have innovation and intelligence moving through the organization constantly, and data flowing, and communication. And this is on top of, of course, leadership strength. In the past, the organization was all driven by leadership strength — how good was the leadership? And my view is, vulnerability and communication are gonna be the things that really drive, and AI enables that in a really amazing way. What that is, is a system of the way you work. So we are doing that in a great way.

At the same time, though, when I look at the industry, we are still stuck in this idea of AI as a feature set. So, “I’m gonna design features” — “Something I used to do that took me an hour, I can do it now in five minutes.” Those are really cool, but that’s no different than what Excel did for us. You know, the accounting industry, you can imagine, was a little nervous when Excel came, but then actually adopted it, and it created great value. But what this actually allows for is a way to change the way we operate. And that’s what I hope the industry really leans into more deeply.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:58:34): Huh, really, really fascinating. All right, I only have you for a couple of more minutes. Let’s jump into our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests, starting with: Who are your early mentors who helped shape your career?

SOM SEIF (00:58:48): So I talked about Rob Arnott, and Rob is someone that I care so deeply about. He not only introduced me to his own way of thinking — Rob has a special thing when you spend time with him. Rob is unbelievably intelligent — he can go toe to toe with any Nobel Prize laureate from an academic perspective — but at the same time, he’s actually an excellent communicator and marketer. That’s a very unique, rare combination. And he taught me that in such a deep way. So much of who I am was formed during those years of working alongside and seeing him in motion. So he’s been an amazing person in my life. He also introduced me to his advisory group, which were people like Harry Markowitz, Peter Bernstein, Richard Roll, Keith Ambachtsheer — some of the most amazing deep thinkers, who I got this immersive opportunity to spend time with. That informed so much of my principal thinking at a time when I was very raw and really open to that curiosity. It was exciting.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:59:50): Huh, really, really interesting. I have some hilarious Rob Arnott stories that I will share with you off-air. Let’s talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading right now?

SOM SEIF (01:00:01): So I love books, and autobiographies are one of the things — people always say, learn from failure. I love to talk about learning from success. So, how do you learn from people’s careers and lifetime successes? So some of my favorite books: The Education of an American Dreamer, by Peter G. Peterson — I don’t know if you’ve read that one — a phenomenal, great story about an individual who, of course, ended up co-founding Blackstone later in life, but just an unbelievable journey about an immigrant family — he just did unbelievable things — and the evolution of a career that’s so fascinating. Creativity, Inc. — we were just talking about that.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:00:40): I literally just got it delivered two days ago.

SOM SEIF (01:00:44): I love that, because when I finished that book, I said to myself, if I was to ever write a biography about my career, I hope it would sound like this. It was the creativity of what Ed Catmull did — but, more importantly, the relationship, how he explained his partnership with Steve Jobs, and the love he had for Steve, and the way he was so intricate about that. It was just so inspiring for me. I loved it. And then, some of the recent books that have just really inspired me: Unreasonable Hospitality — I think one of the greatest business books —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:01:13): Fabulous.

SOM SEIF (01:01:14): One of the best business books that has been written in the last couple years. If you haven’t read it, it’s a critical book. And then I recently finished, a couple years ago, Never Split the Difference, by Chris Voss, and it is unbelievably strong. And in fact, yesterday, we had the team from Chris Voss’s group come in and train our people on how to apply that type of negotiation skill into the daily way we work. It’s an unbelievable way to think about the concept of being comfortable with the word “no.” We are so afraid to hear no in life and in business, but actually allowing no to become something that lets you get to yes is really important. And it’s so counter to all the things that people have learned through the Harvard programs around getting to yes. It’s actually an unbelievable way to think about negotiation and marketing.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:02:00): One of the people I work with just recommended that book, Never Split the Difference, and it’s sitting on a pile — I’m holding my hand up this high — and I was like, all right, yeah, I’ll get around to it one day. I’m gonna have to move that up a little higher in the pile. Let’s talk about streaming. What are you either watching or listening to — either Netflix or podcasts or whatever?

SOM SEIF (01:02:23): We have four kids at home, so my wife and I are always trying to find that hour to stream. The one show that has really touched me is the show Shrinking, of course, on Apple TV.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:02:34): Delightful.

SOM SEIF (01:02:35): Yeah. And the way that the writer, Brett Goldstein, talks about emotions and communication — it’s just such a touching show. I finish every episode, and I think I’m teary-eyed every single time. That’s been an amazing thing. But my wife and I, we love lots of different shows — we just don’t get to them. We have like seven different series that we are in the middle of watching right now. But we try to find that time, and it’s an important time for both of us.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:03:02): You mentioned Unreasonable Hospitality — we just finished the final season of The Bear.

SOM SEIF (01:03:10): Oh, yeah.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:03:11): And throughout that show, you can see some of the ideas right from that book on film.

SOM SEIF (01:03:14): You see it in season two — you really see it very much. That’s when it really becomes prevalent. And of course —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:03:19): The little hot dogs, and all the stuff they do to go over and above the call of duty. It’s impressive, it really is. So, our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in either investing or financial innovation?

SOM SEIF (01:03:40): So I’d say there’s two answers to this that are important, because you’ve got the tension of what’s happening with AI around this industry. I’ll start with the foundations. This is a wonderful industry to be in, and if you look at the trajectory, financial services as an industry will continue to grow meaningfully. If you’re in the wealth industry, it will double, and the asset management industry is doubling, just in the next 10 years, by virtue of savings and market appreciation. So, as an industry participant, the size of the pie is growing, and continuously — so that’s a really good thing. Two, you’ve got an aging demographic of individuals in this space — advisors are constantly aging — and so there’s a huge opportunity for younger talent to come in. And so that’s an awesome setup to be in the business. The principle I go back to is, it’s an amazing place that has high mission, but I want young people, if I was to come into it, to really focus on: How do I approach this to help the customer truly win? As opposed to the historical mindset of, I’m here to basically manage money and do all these things. And I think there’s a really amazing opportunity to do that in a great way.

If I take the tension of AI — there’s always this question of, what’s it gonna do to the advisor industry or the investment industry? And I look at it as only enabling. If you think about the opportunity for a young person today, this is going to be an unbelievable period. The way I would approach this, though, is to recognize, as a young person, that a career in any financial service — or any career — is not a sort of set of stairs. It actually looks more like a J-curve, and you’re gonna have to go through very difficult periods that look very uncomfortable — where you look like you’re not doing great — to ultimately see this great outcome. And that comes from curiosity, learning, and immersing yourself, to ultimately take risks and do really important things. It’s an unbelievable time right now, I think, for an individual and a young person coming into this space.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:05:33): Good answer. And let’s jump to our final question. What do you know about the world of investing, of ETFs, of — again — financial innovation today that might’ve been useful 25 years ago, when you were really ramping up?

SOM SEIF (01:05:47): Well, I think I go back to the constant learning of how behaviors and emotions really drive outcomes. And I wish I’d learned that earlier. I wish I’d kind of been exposed to it. I think the most important thing, though, is this idea of: How do we help truly solve problems along the journey of a customer? How do we put the customer and their moment of need at any point — whether they’re 25, 45, 65 or 85 — and ultimately help them with the types of services and solutions that drive that? If I had had that principle mindset 20-plus years ago, I think I would’ve built even more powerful businesses back then. It’s really fun to do what we’re doing, but I wish we had done this even earlier.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:06:33): Som, I am so glad we finally got to do this. We’ve tried to set this up a couple of times, and the dates just kept getting crossed. I’m thrilled you came in to do this. We have been speaking with Som Seif, founder and CEO of Purpose Investments.

If you enjoy this conversation, well, be sure to check out any of the 650 discussions we’ve had over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube — wherever you get your favorite podcasts. And I would be remiss if I didn’t thank the crack team that helps put these conversations together each week: Alexis Noriega is my video producer; Sean Russo is my researcher; Anna Luke is my podcast producer. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

~ END ~

 

~~~

 

 

 

The post Transcript: Som Seif, Purpose Unlimited appeared first on The Big Picture.

Shit Out Of Luck: 2 Dead In Outbreak Of Diarrhea-Causing Parasite: Officials

Zero Hedge -

Shit Out Of Luck: 2 Dead In Outbreak Of Diarrhea-Causing Parasite: Officials

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Michigan authorities on Aug. 3 said two deaths are linked to the cyclosporiasis outbreak in the state, the first time cyclosporiasis-associated deaths have been reported since outbreaks began in the spring.

A farmer washes lettuce in a backyard urban farm in Los Angeles, on March 25, 2020. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

"Two deaths have been identified as part of the cyclosporiasis outbreak affecting Michigan," the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement.

"According to medical records, both individuals had significant underlying health conditions that may have been impacted by cyclosporiasis and dehydration. No additional information will be provided on these two cases."

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In its latest update on cyclosporiasis, the CDC said on July 28 that it had received no reports of deaths from states.

The CDC said that 45 states have reported 6,707 laboratory-confirmed cases since May 1 that were acquired domestically, that patients ranged in age from 1 to 98, and that the median illness onset date was July 2.

More than 11,000 other cases are pending lab testing or further investigation. The CDC is not counting cases related to international travel.

The outbreak affecting Michigan has also impacted eight other states, federal officials said in July. Iceberg lettuce from Mexico is believed to be a cause of the outbreak.

The other states are Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

Michigan has recorded 11,234 cases in recent months, including 193 hospitalizations.

Indiana has recorded 1,285 cases. Kansas has reported 461 cases and 20 hospitalizations. Ohio has recorded about 20,000 cases. Oklahoma has reported 298 cases and 18 hospitalizations, and West Virginia has reported 268 cases and 19 hospitalizations.

Cyclosporiasis is caused by a parasite called Cyclospora that is present in produce contaminated with feces. Past outbreaks have been caused by produce such as salad greens, raspberries, and cilantro.

The disease's main symptom is diarrhea. Other symptoms can include abdominal pain and vomiting.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 09:00

Futures Hit Record High As Oil Tumbles After Bessent Says Hormuz May "Reopen Tomorrow"

Zero Hedge -

Futures Hit Record High As Oil Tumbles After Bessent Says Hormuz May "Reopen Tomorrow"

S&P futures are trading at all time high with the latest push higher triggered by comments from Scott Bessent on CNBC who echoed Trump in saying that "we may have Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz" (or we may not). The Nasdaq also looks set to extend Monday’s gains: As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% to an all time high of 7655 and Nasdaq futures rise 1.1%, as Palantir soared 16% pre-market after upping its forecasts, while Caterpillar rose 9% on an earnings beat. Semis are leading the Tech tape with Mag7 (DRAM, EWY, SMH, SOXX all higher by at least 1.6%) while Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives with healthcare/staples lower pre-market. Bond yields are slide 2-3 bps on the drop in oil prices, and the USD is stronger as is USDJPY following a catastrophic 10Y JGB auction while intervention is not expected to have a lasting impact and the market is likely signaling the need for BOJ to hike. In commodities, WTI tumbles on Bessent's comments that we may have a deal to reopen Hormuz tomorrow (we won't) with WTI sliding as low as $76. Base metals are higher with Precious metals spiking and Ags bid. It’s a busy day, with earnings this morning from McDonald’s and Caterpillar, and the AI trade front and center this afternoon as AMD and SpaceX report. Today’s macro data focus is on JOLTS and trade balance. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed: Amazon (AMZN) falls 2% after founder Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4.07 billion of stock (Nvidia +1.3%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Microsoft -2%). 

  • Ameresco (AMRC) rallies 30% after the energy company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
  • BioNTech SE (BNTX) falls 3% after the company lowered its revenue outlook as demand for its Covid-19 vaccine shrank more than expected.
  • Caterpillar (CAT) posted second-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street expectations as the company’s power-generation business continued to post strong growth off the back of data center spending. Shares are up 8%.
  • DuPont de Nemours (DD) falls 3% after the chemicals company reported second-quarter results and gave a full-year forecast.
  • McDonald’s (MCD) climbs about 2% after the fast-food restaurant owner and operator posted second quarter results.
  • Nike (NKE) falls 3% after JPMorgan cut its recommendation on the sportswear and sneaker company to underweight, noting financial impacts from the company’s “Win Now” business strategy.
  • Onsemi (ON) rises 7% after the chipmaker’s second-quarter revenue and earnings beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that AI data-center demand is boosting results.
  • Palantir (PLTR) jumps 15% after the company boosted full-year revenue and income forecasts and described commercial demand for its data analytics tools as “otherworldly.”
  • Powell Industries (POWL) drops 11% after the maker of circuit breakers and other electrical equipment posted fiscal third-quarter EPS and revenue that missed expectations.
  • Rockwell Automation (ROK) falls 5% after the maker of industrial automation products posted third quarter results and provided a year forecast.
  • Snap (SNAP) gains 5% after the the social media platform posted higher-than-projected quarterly sales and gave an upbeat forecast for the current period. The results signal optimism ahead of the September commercial debut of its first pair of augmented reality glasses.
  • Spotify (SPOT) falls 4% after the music streaming service’s third-quarter monthly active users and operating income forecasts missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Voyager Technologies (VOYG) rises 15% after the defense company raised its revenue outlook for the full year.
  • Wayfair (W) falls 3% after the online furniture and home goods retailer posted second quarter results.

Corporate news is also busy, with Prologis set to buy UK REIT Segro for about £14 billion ($18.8 billion) and Williams reaching an agreement to buy Momentum Midstream through a deal valued up to $5.5 billion. HSBC’s CEO said the bank will consider boosting its bonus pool for bankers if strong performance continues. In AI news, the White House plans to host leading companies today to discuss a safety framework. Competition is heating up, especially from Chinese AI models, creating what’s been described as a death zone for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. And AI is also shaking up the VC market, with money flowing disproportionately to top-tier investors that backed the technology early.

The rebound in US tech followed a volatile month as investors questioned whether billions of dollars of spending on artificial intelligence will translate into stronger growth and profits (they will... for Chinese AI models). The positive earnings season so far has eased some of those concerns, although the reality is masked under hundreds of billions in new debt. S&P 500 companies are beating expectations at a rate of 86%, the highest in five years, while year-on-year growth in earnings per share is running at 29%. Specifically, of the 322 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this season, 86% have beaten analysts’ EPS forecasts, while 10% have missed. 68% of companies have positively surprised on sales, while 16% have missed.

“The combination of resilient economic growth, strong corporate earnings and AI-driven investment continues to provide a favorable backdrop for equities,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “While investors are right to scrutinize elevated capital spending by hyperscalers and monitor developments in the Middle East, we believe these risks will be offset by the powerful earnings tailwind.”

However, as Bloomberg cautions, one potential pitfall for markets comes when SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company later Tuesday. It also sets the stage for one of the largest share unlocks in capital markets history, with as much as $116 billion of stock becoming eligible for sale for the first time next month. SpaceX stock is about 15% lower than its closing price on June 11, when the shares started trading.

“The bigger issue for SpaceX remains the looming share overhang,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “There is a sense that many investors remain interested in owning the stock but are waiting for the selling pressure associated with these lock-up expiries to begin fading.”

Elon’s rocket company isn’t profitable and has a very speculative model, so the results may end up raising more questions than they answer according to Bloomberg. Volatility could also be increased by technical factors: With a low free float, 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, according to S3 Research data, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float.

Total assets in US-listed leveraged ETFs have retreated from highs, reducing the market impact from daily rebalancing. Still, rotation trades are creating pain points for hedge fund consensus long versus short trades. And while US equities look fairly resilient on the surface, positioning data point to limited investor conviction, particularly within small caps, according to Citigroup strategists. 

In hedge funds, Coatue Management’s fund plunged 8.3% last month, marking the latest technology-focused money manager to be whipsawed after the AI rout. Today’s Big Take looks at how a tax strategy for the rich built the world’s largest hedge fund. 

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% as mining and technology shares lead gains, while retail and consumer products stocks are the biggest laggards.Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • The Stoxx 600 basic resources index is the best-performing sector in the European stocks benchmark after copper advanced to the highest in two months
  • BP Plc shares are up as much as 1.7% after the British oil major reported adjusted Ebit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
  • Johnson Matthey rallied as much as 5.2% in London after Jefferies reinstated the chemicals company buy, noting full-year earnings that beat the banks expectations and the Cormetech acquisition
  • Travis Perkins shares surge as much as 19%, the most since April 2020, following first-half results that analysts say showed encouraging signs against a tough macro backdrop
  • Zalando falls as much as 18%, the most since 2018, after the German online retailer narrowed its FY guidance alongside its second-quarter numbers
  • Lufthansa shares drop as much as 11%, the most since March. The carrier reported a miss on second-quarter Ebit driven mostly by higher fuel costs
  • Acciona SA shares fell as much as 10% to €208.20, the lowest level since March, after shareholder Tussen de Grachten BV sold about 1.65 million ordinary shares at €217.90 per share
  • Fresenius Medical Care shares drop as much as 9.6%, the most in roughly three months, after the German company reported weaker-than-expected US dialysis volume in the second quarter
  • Smith & Nephew shares drop as much as 7.9%, the most since November, after the medical-device maker reported weaker-than-expected revenue and cut its revenue growth outlook for the full year
  • Adidas drops as much as 3.1%, underperforming the Stoxx 600’s consumer products and services subgroup, after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, citing “no clear catalysts to support a further re-rating”
  • Metro Bank shares fall as much as 12%, the most in more than a year, as weaker fee income overshadowed improved profitability and prompted RBC to trim its earnings estimates and price target

Earlier, Asiam stocks edged lower for a second straight session, as declines in Taiwan’s TSMC and Japanese bank shares overshadowed an afternoon rebound of South Korean chipmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% after earlier gains, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, SoftBank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial also among the biggest decliners. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Hong Kong and India retreated. South Korea and Japan staged an afternoon comeback as key chip stocks, including SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Kioxia, rebounded. Chip stocks moved up after a Counterpoint Research report said rising DRAM prices are boosting the outlook for memory-chip makers. “We expect pent-up demand driven by Agentic AI and AI server CPU growth to lift prices further for conventional DRAM,” according to the report. China’s ChiNext, meanwhile, rose 5.6%, led by optical transceiver makers tracking US peers, as investors grew more optimistic about the impact of Nvidia’s rollout of its co-packaged optics platform.

In FX, yen gains are being reversed with USD/JPY approaching 158 as intervention efforts are being used as an opportunity to reload on yen shorts rather than turn the tide for the currency.

In commodities, Brent oil tumbles 3% on Bessent's comments during a CNBC interview that a Hormuz deal may come as soon as tomorrow (he is now used to emphasize Trump commentary which the market no longer believes). Lower energy prices are also boosting fixed income markets with gilts leading the declines. US yields are down 2-3bps across the curve. Also of note for bonds was the extremely poor 10-year JGB auction overnight.Precious metals have pared upside with spot gold now down 0.1%. Bitcoin sheds 0.4%. 

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve as US day begins with futures off session lows. Price action was broadly steady overnight as oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude up around 0.4% after President Donald Trump threatened Iran with renewed air strikes. IG credit issuance is expected to remain busy this week. Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, following similar losses for gilts during London session with oil prices edging higher. US 10-year is around 4.695% with bunds outperforming by around 3bp in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Six borrowers priced almost $8 billion on Monday, with at least one borrower standing down. Issuers paid about 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.3 times covered. This week’s dealer forecasts call for a sharp pickup vs last week, with about $50 billion of new US investment-grade transactions projected

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes June trade balance (8:30am), June factory orders with durable goods revision and June JOLTS job openings (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Schmid at 8:15pm.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The Trump administration is drafting a ban on U.S. imports of new models of Chinese data center components, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters, as it seeks to protect the infrastructure that undergirds the AI boom. RTRS
  • Chinese officials are growing concerned about the potential for Anthropic’s Mythos and other US AI models to be used as an offensive weapon, people familiar said. BBG
  • The yen continued to unwind its intervention gains and Treasuries fell. Oil rose after Donald Trump pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today, or face devastating air strikes. BBG
  • Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the US holds the country’s economic policies in high regard, sidestepping questions on whether Washington helped strengthen the yen. BBG
  • Oil prices look too low as disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to persist, MLIV said. Prediction markets also show little optimism that shipments will resume anytime soon. BBG
  • Michigan Democrats vote today in a high-profile Senate primary between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive Abdul El-Sayed. The winner will face Donald Trump-backed Mike Rogers. Virginia, Kansas, Missouri and Washington also hold primaries. BBG
  • Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general seems set to advance in the Senate Judiciary Committee today after he agreed to rescind an order creating a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, winning over holdout Republican senators. BBG
  • China’s AI blitz is rapidly narrowing the gap with Silicon Valley — creating what’s been described as a “death zone” for anyone without frontier-pushing technology or market-breaking pricing. BBG
  • China’s below-normal crude imports may persist if Middle East supply disruptions continue. BBG
  • US Senate voted 89-4 to advance stopgap funding bill which would fund the US government through to December 11th.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall Street, where all major indices rallied, and the Dow notched a record close amid lower oil prices and yields, following Trump's strike cancellation and touted US-Iran talks, while he even suggested they are discussing opening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today. ASX 200 outperformed with the advances led by strength in tech and the top-weighted financial industry. Nikkei 225 wiped out early gains and dipped into negative territory with a lack of bullish catalysts overnight. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid the choppy performances in its tech giants. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid very few fresh catalysts and with China said to be growing anxious that Anthropic’s Mythos could be wielded against its economy, while better-than-expected HSBC earnings failed to inspire its shares in Hong Kong.x

Top Asian News

  • Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said the pass-through of rising costs on goods prices has been limited so far and June overall CPI shows price rises remain moderate Y/Y. The minister added that the Government shares with BoJ the forecast that consumer inflation will accelerate in the latter half of this year and slow thereafter. Hopes the BoJ conducts monetary policy appropriately to stably and sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target and that the BoJ closely communicates with the government in guiding policy.

European bourses continue to climb, with the FTSE MIB the outperformer. Not much in terms of a broader driver; plenty of corporate earnings were on the docket this morning, while another day of no strikes between the US and Iran brightens hopes of a sustained end to the conflict. Sectors are mixed. Basic Resources top the sector pile, followed by Tech and Industrial Goods & Services. Retail is the sector laggard, with Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services rounding out the underperformers. Weighing on Retail is the earnings from Zalando (-15.5%), in which Q2 revenue missed estimates and narrowed its FY26 adj. EBIT guidance. 

Top European News

  • Bayer (+3.4%), Q2 revenue and Adj. EBITDA beat estimates and confirms FY26 view; 
  • Continental (-1.5%), FY26 revenue guidance missed estimates and highlighted that raw material costs are set to substantially increase; 
  • Lufthansa (-9.5%), cuts FY26 adj. EBIT guidance and notes heightened levels of forecasting uncertainty; 
  • HSBC (-1.0%), Q2 PBT and Net beat estimates and announces a USD 1bln share buyback programme; 
  • BP (+1.0%), Q2 revenue beat and announces its intention to sell Archaea.

FX

  • DXY sees relatively quiet trade thus far, trading on either side of the 100 mark in a narrow 99.93-100.06 range at the time of writing, deriving little support from the firmer oil prices, albeit WTI sees shallower gains than Brent (see Commodities update). Analysts at ING meanwhile posit “Unless ADP tomorrow and, more importantly, payrolls on Friday point to a clearly weakening jobs market … we do not expect the dollar to fall much further in the near term. Uncertainty over the next stage of US-Iran negotiations may also help limit downside pressure on oil prices.” DXY has topped yesterday’s 100.02 high but remains well within Friday’s 100.46 high and above the 100 DMA (99.73).
  • EUR and GBP are also uneventful amid a lack of macro and domestic drivers this morning. EUR/USD found support at 1.1500 on Monday after slipping from a 1.1559 high, shy of its 100 DMA, which today resides at 1.1563 (vs 1.1568 yesterday). GBP/USD is tucked in a 1.3419-1.3439 range, well within yesterday’s 1,3418-1.3506 band but still above a small cluster of DMAs, with the 100 DMA at 1.3399 and 200 DMA at 1.3396, providing some reinforcement around the 1.3400 round figure.
  • JPY is once again interesting, with USD/JPY continuing its mild recovery from post-intervention lows, but remains beneath the 158.00 level, with very few fresh catalysts and a lack of tier-1 data overnight and in the European morning. USD/JPY resides in a current 157.14-157.80 range at the time of writing, just shy of yesterday’s 157.93 high and the 200 DMA at 157.95.
  • Antipodeans are mixed, with AUD gaining and standing out across G10 peers, with strength seen overnight following stronger-than-expected Household Spending data, whilst gains in gold and copper could also be lending support. AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain within yesterday’s ranges, whilst AUD/NZD has gained and resides closer to the top end of a 1.1918-1..1969 range, above yesterday’s 1.1961 high.
  • BoJ data showed an expected shortfall of JPY 3.38tln in money market conditions (exp. shortfall between JPY 2.32-2.6tln). Data suggest that Japan may not have intervened in the FX market on Monday.

Fixed Income

  • A mostly contained European morning for fixed income, after pressure seen in APAC trade in JGBs and to extent other peers after a particularly poor 10yr Japanese auction.
  • As mentioned, the main point thus far was the dismal Japanese 10yr auction, featuring a lower b/c but pertinently a sizable price tail. Results sparked pressure in JGBs of near 70 ticks, to a 126.36 low. Since, the benchmark has recovered for the most part, but remains lower by just over 10 ticks and as such underperforms.
  • For reference, no move to a BoJ research paper on the JGB market, where the headline points echoed commentary from Ueda in last week’s press conference.
  • Bunds firmer by a handful of ticks, saw some modest pressure overnight alongside the JGB move (as did USTs), but only fleeting with the fundamentals and dynamics a very different story. The day ahead for Europe is light, and thus the benchmark will likely conform to the lead from USTs around US events, and geopolitical updates more generally. At the midpoint of a relatively narrow 124.68-92 band.
  • USTs look to a few data points, alongside commentary from Fed’s Paulson. But, action is more likely to be dictated by any geopolitical developments, after President Trump’s relatively constructive commentary on the conversations with the US; however, CBS reported that only the ongoing mediator-led talks are planned. As with Bunds, flat in a c. five tick range, holding just above the 108-10+ low.
  • Gilts conform, opened with gains of a few ticks, and has since slipped to a 87.04 base, lower by around 25 ticks. Pressure is a function of the modest strength seen in energy (despite it coming off highs in the early morning). No reaction was seen following the 2032 tap.
  • The UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.34x, average yield 4.613%, tail 0.2bps.
  • Japan sells JPY 1.98tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 2.56x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 2.840% (prev. 2.729%), Tail in price 0.46 vs prev. 0.20.

Commodities

  • In geopolitics, President Trump said talks with Iran were ongoing and suggested the Strait of Hormuz could reopen by Tuesday, although US officials clarified that no new negotiations were planned beyond existing mediator-led discussions. Tensions remain high, with reports of Iranian drone attacks on a US base in Kuwait and vessels near the Strait, including a cargo ship struck off Oman. Iran warned that continued efforts to break the blockade could put US forces and vessels at serious risk, while Iranian leaders reportedly believe they can withstand US pressure and raise costs through regional proxies and threats to shipping. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister is expected to visit Islamabad.
  • WTI Sep'26 and Brent Oct'26 are firmer amid geopolitics but to varying magnitudes, with the former currently +2.2% intraday and the latter +3%. The difference in gains could potentially be a function of President Trump yesterday criticising major oil companies, saying they were making excessive profits and urging them to lower retail fuel prices. The mechanism being: if US refiners are forced to lower fuel prices while crude costs remain elevated, refining margins shrink, prompting them to reduce crude processing to balance books and, in turn, lowering demand for WTI crude. Nonetheless, WTI trades around the top of a USD 79.62-82.28/bbl range vs yesterday’s USD 78.43-81.30/bbl range. Brent resides within a USD 83.80-86.33/bbl range vs Monday’s 81.55-84.66/bbl range. Dutch TTF is back above EUR 59/MWh, having traded under EUR 58/MWh
  • Metals are firmer across the board as DXY remains contained despite the gains across crude, with precious and base metals benefiting from the current stability in oil prices under July highs as President Trump continues to tout diplomacy with Iran, and with no further escalations seen thus far this European morning. Spot gold remains under yesterday’s USD 4,019-4,079/oz range within a current USD 4,043-4,073/oz range. Base metals also benefit across the board, with 3M LME copper back above USD 14k/t in the current 13,871.88- 14,049.30/t range at the time of writing.
  • Saudi Aramco - Q2 adj. net income +33% Y/Y to USD 33.4bln (exp. 31.1bln). Benchmark Brent crude averaged approximately USD 97/bbl during the quarter as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driven by the US-Iran conflict, caused the largest oil supply disruption on record, with Aramco redirecting the bulk of its exports via the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea. Elevated refined-product prices provided an additional margin tailwind, sustaining returns even as Brent temporarily retreated below USD 75/bbl following an interim ceasefire agreement. It flagged mounting risk to Red Sea export volumes as Houthi militants threaten attacks on tankers using that route.
  • Saudi Aramco CEO said global oil inventories could take about 18 months to recover following supply disruptions.
  • Oman crude for October delivery priced at USD 83.51/bbl, according to state news.
  • Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade within an USD 80–90/bbl range until a new US-Iran agreement is confirmed or attacks escalate significantly.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Japan and Mexico agreed to strengthen energy cooperation, with Japan and Mexico aiming to hold first high-level economic dialogue this fiscal year, according to Kyodo

Central Banks

  • BoK Minutes stated that one member said timing and pace of any further rate hikes should be determined with primary emphasis on inflation.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iranian President said Tehran would defend its borders but does not seek to expand the war, according to state media.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said if the blockade continues, US vessels and forces will face serious risks and casualties.
  • Arab media reported explosions and fires occurred at US bases in Kuwait, according to Fars News Agency. This was later confirmed by i24, in which the IRGC attacked a US base in Kuwait using 3 drones, according to a source.
  • UKMTO received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Al Khasab, in which a cargo vessel broadcasted that they had been hit by an unknown projectile. More recently, a dry bulk vessel was reportedly hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, according to a maritime security source.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Ukraine, on August 4th, struck a major Russian oil refinery 800km from the border, attacking the Syzran oil refinery (170k BPD). A major fire broke out on the premises, RBC Ukraine reported.

Geopolitics: Other

  • North Korea slammed US-led naval exercise and vowed to respond with deterrence of a new level, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Jun Trade Balance, est. -73b, prior -77.6b
  • 10:00 am: Jun Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior -1.3%
  • 10:00 am: Jun JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7453.5k, prior 7594k
  • 10:00 am: Jun F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 10:00 am: Jun F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After several weeks of military exchanges and fears of a renewed energy shock, markets have started August welcoming the late weekend comments from President Trump that fresh talks with Iran would begin after he cancelled plans for what he described as a major attack. That optimism was reinforced by suggestions from Iranian officials that negotiations between Iran and Oman over “temporary” shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, offering a potential path towards improved oil flows. Even Trump’s post as Europe went home that “Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous”, which came following Iranian comments that they were not currently negotiating with the US, didn’t spoil things. Trump also said that his latest offer of talks was a “last chance” for Iran but that didn’t derail improved market optimism on Hormuz shipping amid the renewed focus on diplomacy.  

So for one day at least markets enjoyed something they haven't had much of this summer: falling oil prices, lower inflation expectations, stronger growth data, declining bond yields, and rising equities all at the same time. A nice way to start August even if you feel it could go either way very quickly.

The biggest move was in energy yesterday. Brent crude fell -4.73% to $83.77/bbl (adjusting for the benchmark month change), whilst WTI dropped -5.11% to $80.34/bbl. This morning, they are edging back +1.42% and +1.12% higher respectively. European natural gas futures also declined -1.80% yesterday. 

The reaction in inflation markets was also strong. The US 1yr inflation swap fell -5.5bps to 1.86%, its lowest since September 2024, whilst the Eurozone 1yr inflation swap declined -3.3bps to 2.36%. So markets are dismantling a chunk of the near-term inflation premium that had built up through July as the conflict intensified. Real yields moved lower too, with the US 30yr falling -3.6bps to 3.00%. 
Government bonds were immediate beneficiaries. The 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.8bps to 4.68%, whilst 10yr bund yields (-5.5bps) declined to 3.15%. Gilts outperformed both, with the UK 10yr yield down -9.6bps to 4.95%, making them one of the strongest-performing major developed market assets on the day and their best day since May 20. 10yr BTP yields (-8.6bps) weren’t far behind, also registering their largest daily decline since late May. 

However, unlike several of the recent oil-driven rallies, yesterday's move wasn't occurring against a backdrop of weakening growth. In fact the opposite was true. The US ISM manufacturing survey rose to 55.6 in July, its highest reading since May 2022 and comfortably above the 53.9 expectation. The employment component (52.8 vs 50.0 expected) moved into expansion territory for the first time since September 2023, whilst new orders was strong (56.7 and in-line). Not even prices paid remaining at an elevated 71.1 (roughly in line with expectations, but easing back from 73.0) dampened the mood. The associated commentary suggested the booming activity was linked to semiconductors, AI, defence, and high-performance computing. In other data, the Fed’s latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey painted a picture of buoyant lending to corporates, even if there were some pockets of softness on the household side. 

That combination of lower oil and stronger growth proved a very supportive backdrop for equities. The S&P 500 rose +1.48% to close just -0.12% below its record high from June 2. The Nasdaq Composite gained +2.13% and the Dow added +1.32%. The standout performer was the Magnificent Seven, which rallied +3.56%, posting its largest daily gain since March 31, with all bar Apple (-1.78%) up around +3% or more. Moreover, coupled with the tech rebound late last week, the Mag-7 recorded its best 3-day run (+8.98%) since May 2025, when the US and China agreed on their trade truce. Interestingly that enthusiasm didn't extend as much into the semiconductor space, with the Philly Semi Index (+1.05%) underperforming the broader market after losing -20.6% in July. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose +0.45%, the DAX gained +1.45% and the CAC 40 advanced +1.22%. 

This morning, focus continues to be on the yen story, which stabilised after its early Monday spike that we wrote about yesterday. The yen ended yesterday’s session up +0.19% to 157.10 against the USD, having traded below 155.50 early on Monday. And this morning it is -0.27% lower trading at 157.63 against the dollar, still far from the 163 level before the intervention last Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower overnight with the KOSPI (-0.96%) again the weakest performer, despite recovering some of its early losses, while the Nikkei (-0.33%) and Hang Seng (-0.49%) are also on the softer side. In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming their regional counterparts, supported by a rebound in technology stocks following yesterday’s selloff. At the time of writing, both the CSI 300 (+0.94%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) are trading higher. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+1.29%) is posting strong gains, driven by a rally in lithium miners and strength in commodity-linked shares, which is more than offsetting weakness in other sectors. S&P 500 (+0.22%) and Nasdaq (+0.38%) futures are up along with the Stoxx (+0.34%) equivalent. 

Early morning data showed that South Korea's consumer inflation eased to a three-month low, with prices rising 2.8% year-over-year in July, down from 3.2% in June and 3.0% expected. Core was a tenth higher than expected at 2.6% YoY. 

Away from the macro picture, one of the more eye-catching corporate stories came from healthcare after reports that AstraZeneca (-8.96% yesterday) has explored a potential acquisition of Bristol-Myers Squibb (+0.24%), which would rank as the largest pharmaceutical deal ever completed. Defence stocks also remained in focus after Northrop Grumman secured agreements worth up to $3bn related to missile interceptor production, a reminder that even if diplomacy is making a comeback, the geopolitical backdrop remains anything but normal. 

To the day ahead now, the main US data will be the JOLTS report, followed by June trade balance and factory orders. We’ll also get France’s June budget balance YTD, Italy June retail sales. Earnings include SpaceX, AMD, HSBC, Booking, Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 08:30

Caterpillar Erupts As Quarterly Sales Top $20 Billion For First Time Amid AI Data Center Boom

Zero Hedge -

Caterpillar Erupts As Quarterly Sales Top $20 Billion For First Time Amid AI Data Center Boom

Caterpillar shares jumped in pre-market trading after reporting a second-quarter beat, driven by strong growth in its heavy machinery, power and energy business amid the data center buildout, reshoring, and other activities reindustrializing the nation under the Trump administration.

Revenue soared 24% from one year ago to $20.54 billion, exceeding the $19.01 billion Bloomberg consensus estimate. Machinery, power and energy revenue climbed 25% to $19.58 billion, while operating income surged 51% to $4.21 billion, well above the $3.5 billion estimate.

Financial Products operating income rose 24% to $263 million, beating Wall Street expectations, though the segment's $962 million in revenue missed forecasts. Research and development spending increased 12% to $616 million.

Here's a snapshot of Caterpillar's second-quarter results, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Revenue $20.54 billion, +24% y/y, estimate $19.01 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Financial segment revenue $962 million, +7.5% y/y, estimate $982.8 million
  • Machinery, Power & Energy revenue $19.58 billion, +25% y/y, estimate $18.13 billion
  • Machinery, Power & Energy operating income $4.21 billion, +51% y/y, estimate $3.5 billion
  • Financial Products operating income $263 million, +24% y/y, estimate $248.1 million

R&D expenses $616 million, +12% y/y, estimate $602.5 million

"This is the first time in company history that we have generated over $20 billion in sales and revenues in a single quarter," Caterpillar CEO Joe Creed wrote in a statement.

Creed continued, "This milestone underscores both the essential work our customers do every day and the dedication of Caterpillar employees worldwide to solving our customers' toughest challenges. Strong order rates and a growing backlog reflect broadening momentum across all three of our primary segments."

Caterpillar shares surged nearly 8% in premarket trading, suggesting the company cleared the high bar set by investors. This morning's surge follows a 23% decline last month, the stock's worst performance since 2009, as concerns about data-center spending fueled a broader selloff across power-equipment companies.

Last week, Michael Burry announced we shorted Caterpillar for the first time ...

Read the note where Morgan Stanley expects $1 trillion hyperscaler capex this year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:45

Saudi Aramco Profit Soars As CEO Warns Hormuz Closure Removes 100 Million Barrels A Week

Zero Hedge -

Saudi Aramco Profit Soars As CEO Warns Hormuz Closure Removes 100 Million Barrels A Week

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil producer by volume, reported a 33% jump in second-quarter profits on Tuesday as the war-driven surge in Brent crude, which averaged $97 a barrel, boosted earnings. The company maintained export flows by redirecting crude around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea.

Adjusted net income for the quarter surged to $33.4 billion from $25.2 billion a year earlier, beating the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $31.1 billion. Aramco sold oil at an average of $108.10 a barrel, up from $66.70, while Brent averaged nearly $97 during the quarter.

Aramco heavily relied on its East-West Pipeline, storage facilities, and Red Sea energy terminals to maintain export flows as the Hormuz chokepoint came to a standstill for the quarter. Nevertheless, liquids production plunged 28% to 7.57 million barrels a day, while natural gas output tumbled 16%.

The East-West Pipeline shows how critical an alternative route to transport energy products has become for U.S.-allied countries in the Gulf, as a once-in-a-generation infrastructure buildout, whether a new pipeline or expanded capacity of legacy ones to new ports, is set to be underway. This, in itself, will erode Tehran's leverage on the Hormuz in the years ahead.

Aramco maintained its $21.9 billion base dividend despite generating just $12.3 billion in free cash flow. Gearing, a measure of the company's indebtedness, increased to 6.2% from 4.8% at the end of March, highlighting the financial strain of sustaining a payout critical to Saudi government finances.

Separately, Aramco's President and CEO, Amin H. Nasser, told Al Arabiya Business that the closure of the Hormuz chokepoint sparked the "largest oil shock in history," resulting in the global market losing more than 2.6 billion barrels of supply since the start of the Gulf crisis in late February.

Nasser said the closure of the Hormuz removes about 100 million barrels of oil from the market every week and has placed the global refining system under severe strain.

From the earnings call: 

Goldman Sachs' top commodities experts, Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven, have both warned about the refinery shock and pointed out that "diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze."

Read the report:

Even after the chokepoint reopens, Nasser warned that it could take up to 18 months to replenish global inventories.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:20

Global Bond Market On Edge As Japanese Yields Soar After "Horrible" 10Y JGB Auction

Zero Hedge -

Global Bond Market On Edge As Japanese Yields Soar After "Horrible" 10Y JGB Auction

While much of the market focus has fallen on the US long-end, which saw substantial pressure in the past week, sending 30Y yields to 5.27%, the highest level since 2007, it was Japan again which stole the show overnight. But first, recall that the primary tradeoff for the BOJ preventing it from raising rates and comfortably pushing up the yen without needing to spending tens of billions in massive interventions (whether individual or joint with the US), is that raising rates risks collapsing the world's biggest house of cards, which is the Japanese bond market, the world's, second biggest of which half is now owned by the Bank of Japan. 

Well, early on Tuesday morning Japan had its first major coupon auction since the latest intervention and it went... catastrophically. 

The auction, which saw a huge tail, the second highest since the start of the century...

... and dismal demand in the form of a collapsing 2.56 bid to cover, far below the 3.3 average, the lowest since May 2025...

... and the third lowest going back all the way to 2015.

... sent the yield on 10Y paper as spiking as much as 5bps higher to 2.87% with JGB futures tumbling as much as 34 ticks to 126.37. 

The lowest price was also a long way off from pre-sale estimates. In a nutshell, as Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield put it, it was a "horrible auction" and ominously adds that "this is such a bad bond sale it could spill over negatively to Treasuries and other G-10 bonds." The Bloomberg strategist also notges that "investors appear to be giving the BOJ pay back for not be clearer in their intentions to get ahead of inflationary forces and raise interest rates more quickly."

The auction was so bad, even domestic Japanese investors seem to have been surprised at the poor metrics.  As a result, 10-year yields fast approached the peak seen in July around 2.90%, with Cranfield warning that "should Japanese bonds go beyond that threshold seen last month, it is likely to send a deeply negative read across to G-10 peers, which will reverberate through global fixed-income trading."

Elsewhere, Bloomberg strategist Ven Ram points out the obvious noting that "the lukewarm reception to Japan’s latest bond auction shows that the latest round of currency intervention has failed to turn around sentiment toward the nation’s assets.... While the Japan-US joint currency intervention shored up the yen, the follow-through needs to come not from the US Treasury or Japan’s finance ministry, but rather from the Bank of Japan."

The bottom line: unless the BOJ follows through on the intervention either by raising rates outside its normal policy review cycle or by signaling an urgent intent to follow through with successive hikes, bonds will continue to falter. That, in turn, bodes poorly for the yen’s outlook — regardless of what the authorities do in the short term.

Sure enough, after dropping as low as 155.20 yesterday, the USDJPY is now almost 300 pips higher and has already erased a third of the full intervention impact which cost Japan just shy of $100 billion.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 07:10

"Creepy" Smart Glasses Are Creating A Privacy Problem

Zero Hedge -

"Creepy" Smart Glasses Are Creating A Privacy Problem

Smart glasses are quickly becoming the next major consumer tech battleground, with Meta leading the market and rivals including Google, Samsung, and Apple preparing their own AI-powered eyewear. But as the devices become more capable, they're also fueling a growing debate over whether convenience is coming at the expense of privacy, according to a new report from Wired

Unlike smartphones, which require users to visibly point a camera, smart glasses can quietly capture photos, video, and audio from the wearer's point of view. Critics argue that makes them far easier to misuse. Meta has attempted to address concerns with recording lights and anti-tamper protections, but questions remain over how effective those safeguards really are. The company also briefly experimented with facial-recognition capabilities before abandoning the feature after it drew scrutiny.

Even so, consumers continue to buy them. Fans point to hands-free photography, AI assistants, live translation, accessibility features, and other practical uses that make the glasses more than just another gadget. Some smaller manufacturers are trying to distinguish themselves with camera-free designs or physical lens covers aimed at privacy-conscious buyers.

Wired writes that privacy groups say the technology may ultimately require regulation rather than voluntary safeguards, calling for mandatory recording indicators that users cannot disable. Their argument is that as AI wearables become commonplace, legal protections need to evolve just as quickly.

Then again, if people are already posting every meal, workout, vacation, and awkward first date online, maybe the only thing smart glasses are really doing is saving everyone the trouble of pulling a phone out of their pocket.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 06:55

10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads:

The Worries That Drove Uncle Sam to Buy Yen: The U.S. and Japan launched their first joint currency intervention in a generation after the yen fell to a 40-year low — a decline that threatened to push U.S. interest rates higher. The weakness of the Japanese currency was a problem not just for Tokyo but also Washington. (Wall Street Journal)

AI Has Entered The ‘Loss Of Control’ Transition: Waiting for a disaster to save us. What the experts didn’t expect to see for decades or longer, if ever, has already happened. Earlier this month, OpenAI’s latest frontier model went rogue by its own reasoning and hacked into Hugging Face, an open-source AI model-hosting platform. The vast sums of money and compute power pouring into AI are accelerating its advance at a pace beyond even the ambitious imagination of its own innovators. Nathan Gardels on OpenAI’s latest frontier model going rogue by its own reasoning and hacking into Hugging Face — something experts didn’t expect for decades, if ever. (Noema) see also Is AI Reasoning Right for the Wrong Reasons? The idea that artificial intelligence can “reason” is more intuitive than ever. But intuitions can be wrong, and the science is far from settled. John Pavlus on large reasoning models, now that a general-purpose reasoning model from OpenAI has solved a famous open mathematical research problem. (Quanta Magazine)

Silicon Valley loves young founders. Until it doesn’t. While Silicon Valley VCs have always famously loved backing young college dropout founders, they preferred to see them paired with technical founders, or at least to have some experience — ideally with a FAANG company (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google) — on their résumés. In many ways, that is still very true. But AI tools have democratized the opportunity to build, shortening the timelines of success and enabling more young people to start successful companies without stepping foot inside a Big Tech company. Dominic-Madori Davis profiles Arlan Rakhmetzhanov, 19, who started coding at 15 in Kazakhstan and cold-DM’ed every Y Combinator founder he could find until one wrote him an angel check at 17. (TechCrunch)

Data centers have a politics problem — and industry knows it: As opposition to the AI projects gains momentum, industry supporters say they have ceded the narrative to their critics. Fears that server-packed data hubs will drive up electricity prices, deplete water supplies and gobble farmland have put the companies that build them on the losing end of a populist backlash. (Politico)

You Won the Battle on Investment Fees. You’re Losing the War Against Taxes. You can own the entire stock market for 0.03% a year — $3 on $10,000 — a number that would have sounded absurd 20 years ago. New research finds federal taxes eat more than a third of investor wealth over time. New research shows that federal taxes eat up more than a third of investors’ wealth over time (Wall Street Journal)

The last day of a factory in Trump country, as its work moves to China: For generations, this Ohio factory was a way of life. Then came the final shift. Peter Jamison in Eastlake, Ohio, where Joe Klima spent 40 years — six days a week, through seven presidents and four recessions — making some of the world’s finest tubas, French horns and sousaphones. (Washington Post)

How to Use AI to Talk to Whales—and Save Life on Earth: With ecosystems in crisis, engineers and scientists are teaming up to decipher what animals are saying. Their hope: By truly listening to nature, humans will decide to protect it. Camille Bromley on the engineers and scientists teaming up to decipher what animals are saying, betting that truly listening to nature will persuade humans to protect it. (Wired)

What Ukraine’s drone makers know that the Pentagon doesn’t: Modern war rewards speed and redundancy, not perfect weapons from a single supplier. Denys Shtilerman, founder of Ukrainian defense company FirePoint, on Freyja — the ten-country European interceptor coalition — and why depending on a single manufacturer in a single country is the real vulnerability. (Washington Post)

RFK Jr tells US families to vaccinate children against measles amid outbreak: Health secretary, longtime vaccination skeptic, spent years boosting misinformation about vaccines including MMR. Ed Pilkington on the health secretary — a longtime vaccine skeptic — urging MMR shots as infections hit levels not seen in 35 years. (The Guardian) but see The Assault On Science Funding Continues: The Trump administration hates academic science funding, full stop. They hate where that money goes, and they hate who it goes to. They want to keep all that money for themselves, to hand out to favored cronies who can help them get elected and to steer yet more money and more power back into their hands. (Science)

Inside the week that shook Gianni Infantino, FIFA and the football world: The World Cup may have been mired in the scandals of rejected visas, Trump interference and numerous statewide investigations into FIFA’s ticketing practices, but it yielded $15billion (£11bn) in revenues, which had a muzzling effect on those who were uneasy with Infantino’s leadership. He was so confident in his position that he ended the tournament without the customary closing press conference. Then, last Sunday, he went onto Instagram and lashed out against scrutiny and criticism of his leadership, accusing critics of “spreading hate” and telling them to “meditate, pray or watch a football match” instead of spending their energy worrying about FIFA. The FIFA president planned to unveil a stake sale to private investors — including Joshua Kushner, brother of Jared — at the Waldorf Astoria on the eve of the World Cup final. It did not go as planned. (New York Times)

Video of the day: Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing | Official Trailer | Netflix

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Som Seif, founder/CEO of Purpose Unlimited, a Toronto-based asset manager launched in 2012. He grew his first firm, Claymore Investments to $8B in assets by creating 34  ETFs in Canada over 6 years, including the creation of the first bitcoin ETF, establishing it as Canada’s leader in low-cost exchange-traded funds. Claymore was sold to BlackRock in 2012. He co-founded Wealthsimple that year, which became the default investing app for a generation of Canadians. His current wealth management firm, Purpose, was founded at the end of 2012, and manages $31 billion in ETFs, mutual funds, alternatives, private assets, and digital assets. Som was named to Canada’s Top 40 Under 40 in 2011.

 

America’s biggest companies report ‘rock solid’ profits as consumers face higher costs

Source: Financial Times

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UK Police Force Invites Non-Muslim Staff To Fast During Ramadan As Act Of Solidarity

Zero Hedge -

UK Police Force Invites Non-Muslim Staff To Fast During Ramadan As Act Of Solidarity

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

West Midlands Police force is actively inviting non-Muslim officers and staff to go without food and water during Ramadan as a deliberate "act of solidarity" with Muslim colleagues.

The force presents this as a way for officers to grasp the "significance of Ramadan" for Muslim residents in one of Britain's most diverse regions. Critics see it as yet another example of public institutions bending their culture around one faith while the foundational principle of policing without fear or favour collapses under diversity dogma.

The invitation comes from the West Midlands Association of Muslim Police. Colleagues of all backgrounds are encouraged to fast for a day during the month-long festival, with the money they would normally spend on lunch donated to charity.

A force spokesman confirmed the practice has run for a number of years: "The West Midlands Association of Muslim Police has, for a number of years, invited colleagues from all faiths and backgrounds to fast for a day to raise money for charity during Ramadan. It is entirely a matter for officers and staff if they wish to take part."

"This is an initiative which is undertaken at a number of organisations around the country. The West Midlands has a large and diverse population, including many Muslim residents, and it is important for officers and staff to understand the significance of Ramadan to those communities," the spokesman added.

Documents obtained by the Telegraph through freedom of information requests show the force is held up as a model of inclusivity. A New Forest council diversity training memo praises West Midlands Police for supporting fasting colleagues with flexi-working so they can spend time with families.

It notes: "What's more, increasing numbers of non-Muslim staff have taken up fasting each year as an act of solidarity with their Muslim colleagues, adding to the family feel of WMP culture." Councillors were urged to brainstorm their own versions of such inclusivity.

Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy did not share the enthusiasm. He called the encouragement of non-Muslim staff to observe Ramadan "wholly inappropriate."

"The police should be a national force for all of us, observing the same standards regardless of creed," Timothy said, adding "There should be no special measures in place for any faith."

"We should not be changing police culture to comply with the practices of one religion," he continued, adding "Expectations should be uniform, and non-Muslim police being encouraged to fast in Ramadan is wholly inappropriate. We need to abolish the Public Sector Equality Duty, which provides the legal framework for much of this, and ensure there is one rule for all of us - not special treatment for certain groups."

Major Andrew Fox, senior associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, went further. He linked the initiative to the force's recent controversies, including the exclusion of Israeli football supporters based on intelligence later shown to be false or exaggerated.

"West Midlands Police's judgment is increasingly open to question," Fox stated, adding "Supporting officers of every faith is entirely appropriate. Encouraging staff to participate in a religious observance is not. The police exist to enforce the law impartially, not to promote or facilitate religious practices."

Concerns have also been raised about operational readiness. Front-line officers abstaining from food and water for extended periods during demanding shifts raises obvious questions about concentration, physical performance and public safety. Yet the force frames the voluntary fast as cultural enrichment rather than a potential operational risk.

This episode does not stand alone. It fits a pattern of ideological capture that a Policy Exchange analysis has shown is systematically undermining British policing. Forces across England and Wales have poured hundreds of millions into DEI measures and the Police Race Action Plan since 2020.

The think-tank's head of crime and justice, David Spencer, warned that police chiefs have "sought to entrench the radical ideology of 'anti-racism' into British policing." In doing so, he argued, "some police chiefs have set policing against its own foundational principle - to act 'without fear or favour'."

Spencer concluded: "It is a modern-day tragedy that many of our Chief Constables simply cannot be trusted to resolve this alone. It's time to restore the principle of 'equality before the law' in policing. Nothing less than the fundamental legitimacy of British policing is at stake."

The human cost of this ideology has already been measured in real lives. In Southampton in December 2025, 18-year-old university student Henry Nowak was stabbed multiple times. His attacker, Vickrum Digwa, claimed he was the victim of a racist assault.

Bodycam footage shows officers treating the bleeding Nowak as the aggressor, handcuffing him while he pleaded that he could not breathe. He lost consciousness shortly after and died. An inquest has been ordered to examine whether the handcuffing and delays in medical treatment contributed to his death under Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights.

Serving and former Hampshire officers later told former Home Secretary Suella Braverman that mandatory DEI sessions had "drummed into us about our white privilege and unconscious bias."

The external trainer was described as "deeply hateful of white people and our culture." Officers reported feeling controlled and pressured to adopt specific views on race. Hampshire's chief constable denied the existence of two-tier policing, but the bodycam evidence and the subsequent admissions tell a different story.

Similar patterns appear elsewhere. Footage from Birmingham earlier this year captured officers intervening in a street attack by shielding three black males who had been punching a white teenager, then arresting and manhandling the bloodied victim while the attackers walked free.

Officers were heard ordering the restrained teenager into a police car with language that left little doubt about the direction of their aggression. West Midlands Police, the same force asked to participate in fasting, asked the public to stop sharing the clips rather than account for the conduct.

The same ideological framework has been institutionalised through training that forces officers to accept the concept of "white privilege." Thames Valley Police has mandated equity sessions focusing on white privilege, micro-aggressions and the shift from non-racist to anti-racist practice.

An independent review found the material could be seen as demonising white officers, creating barriers to learning and generating resentment among white male officers who felt disadvantaged.

Former government adviser and ex-police officer Rory Geoghegan observed that officers "deserve far better from their leaders than to be crudely categorised by skin colour and subjected to reductive, divisive ideologies."

When non-Muslim officers are invited to participate in Islamic religious observance under the banner of solidarity, while the same institutions have spent years instructing white officers on their supposed privilege and have been caught prioritising racial narratives over the immediate medical needs of a dying white teenager, the pattern is clear.

The Public Sector Equality Duty and the DEI apparatus that flows from it have produced a policing culture more interested in managed optics and protected group sensitivities than in equal application of the law.

Nick Timothy's call to abolish that duty is not abstract. It is a recognition that one rule for all has been replaced by a hierarchy of protected identities. West Midlands Police's Ramadan invitation is simply the latest public expression of that hierarchy.

British policing was built on the principle that the uniform represents the same standards for every citizen. That principle is being hollowed out, one diversity initiative at a time. The public is noticing. Trust is eroding. And the consequences are no longer theoretical.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 05:00

Iron Ore Below $100 As UBS Warns "Fundamentals Are Deteriorating"

Zero Hedge -

Iron Ore Below $100 As UBS Warns "Fundamentals Are Deteriorating"

Iron ore futures in Singapore fell to their lowest intraday level in one year as deteriorating fundamentals continued to weigh on the market.

Steel demand in China remains soft amid an ongoing construction slump and weakening mill margins, while supply continues to increase, reinforcing expectations of a growing surplus.

Bloomberg noted earlier that the latest concerns surrounding major physical trader Radiant World added another layer of uncertainty, but the bigger bearish narrative remains centered on lackluster demand failing to absorb rising supply.

The outlet adds more color:

Vitol Group and Cargill Inc. have stopped doing business with Radiant World, a privately held company, amid concerns over fake invoices, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

In addition, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s Point Bonita fund were reviewing exposures to the company.

Radiant World — which has grown in recent years to become one of the market's main players — said the developments are "categorically untrue".

Separately, Myles Allsop, a London-based mining and metals research analyst at UBS, recently pointed out, "Iron ore fundamentals remain cautious; prices are starting to test the low end of the range."

Allsop questioned whether iron ore will trade above $100/t in 2027. He answered, "Probably not," and added:

Iron ore fundamentals are deteriorating with supply lifting while demand is soft; this has resulted in inventories lifting materially over the last 12 months.

We note cost support levels have lifted with higher diesel/ freight rates but these are set to moderate over the next 12 months if the ceasefire holds & oil/ gas prices normalise.

We expect iron ore prices to average ~$100/t in 2026 and moderate to ~US$95/t in 2027 with the market in a larger surplus and prices stepping down to trade just above the ~90th percentile of the value-in-use curve or ~$90/t (note).

We expect steel scrap to start to displace iron ore demand from 2027 when China's ETS gets tighter (although the scale and pace is opaque and dependent on highly fragmented collection and processing, as well as policy support).

Overnight, Iron ore futures extended their selloff, with benchmark Singapore contracts falling as much as 2.3% to $93.65 a ton, the lowest intraday level since July 2025, while the most-active Dalian contract dropped nearly 3%.

The price action suggests bearish sentiment toward the steelmaking raw material, as weakening Chinese demand, softer steel margins, and increasing supply are pressuring the market.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 04:15

The EU & The Iron Law Of Oligarchy

Zero Hedge -

The EU & The Iron Law Of Oligarchy

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

Along, long time ago—27 years, to be exact—my boss (the inimitable Mark Melcher) and I predicted that the European Monetary Union would be the death of the EU. The Euro, we wrote for our clients at a now-defunct big brokerage house, would be a disaster and would destroy everything that the post-war Europeans had spent the previous several decades working to build. Specifically, we wrote:

Psst! You wanna know a secret? The Euro, and the mess it represents, is going to be a social, economic and political catastrophe. Indeed, we think it is probable that the adoption of the Euro will be to 21st century Europe, what the killing of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand was to 20th century Europe; i.e., that point in time when history will record that the unraveling began in earnest.

Exaggeration? Hyperbole? Well, maybe. But maybe not. You see, the problem isn’t, as most critics claim, simply that the “policy makers” from the various “regions,” will fight over economic and monetary policy, and that the economic ignoramuses might win. The problem is that economic ignoramuses are likely to be the only ones at the table.  . . .

Starting in about 2010 and running for the next decade or so, every January, in my annual foreign-policy forecast piece, I would lead with a reiteration of that prediction. The collapse of the Euro, I would write, was inevitable. It didn’t matter if it actually happened this year or next year or a decade down the road. It would all eventually crumble, largely because the ignoramuses simply couldn’t help themselves and couldn’t stop doing economically foolish things.

Sometime over the last few years, I quit making that prediction every year for a couple of reasons. First, I quit writing annual forecast pieces as my business model and focus changed. Second, and more to the point, it became unnecessary. The EU had already made itself economically irrelevant. Between its jealously fueled outrage at American tech companies, its obsession with carbon emissions, and its conscious decision to strangle its capital markets through the imposition of overtly political investing mandates, the EU guaranteed that it would become the first modern civilization in history to regress developmentally. It knowingly chose to deindustrialize and to build an economic future that was far bleaker than even its remote economic past. The Euro, I concluded, was pointless.

That’s not to say that I gave up believing that the EU would inevitably collapse. I just gave up wasting my readers’ time by prattling on about it.

Looking back at all of this now, it’s possible I may have been mistaken. No, I wasn’t wrong about the economic stuff. Not only are the ignoramuses in charge, but no one else is even in the discussion. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is the only Eurozone leader who questions the Union’s climate policies, for example, rightly warning that they will lead to “industrial desertification.” Still, even she officially supports the EU’s position on climate change and carbon emissions more generally, as well as its agreement to the Paris Climate Accords. It’s ignoramuses all the way down.

Nevertheless, it’s probably the case that I was wrong that the economic ignoramuses would be the ones who would precipitate the official end of the EU. Or, more accurately, I suppose, I was wrong that their economically illiterate policies would be the proximate cause of the EU’s collapse. It’s the same ignoramuses, just different policies.

As you likely know, this past week, tens of thousands of “migrants” from Morocco invaded the Spanish city of Ceuta, which is along the coast in North Africa. The images from the enclave were grim: hordes of people, mostly young men, pushing, racing, and fighting to get out of Africa and into Europe (geographical technicalities, be damned). The conditions on the ground were grimmer still: as of yesterday, some 70-plus deaths had been confirmed, while more than a thousand people required medical attention. The whole thing was shocking—or at least it would have been if it hadn’t also been utterly predictable.

For most of the last forty years, Spain has been a hub of primarily North African and Middle Eastern immigration to Europe.

Since the 1980s, Spain has had six major extraordinary regularizations for its migrant populations. Although different in name and details, these “extraordinary regularizations” are essentially broad general amnesties, grants of legal immigration status to those who entered the country illegally. In 2005, under the former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (a socialist), Spain granted amnesty to more than half a million illegal immigrants. Earlier this year, under current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (also a socialist . . . or worse), the country began the process of yet another regularization, the total size of which is unknown at present but is estimated to be between 500,000 and over 800,000.

Additionally, earlier this summer, the Spanish Supreme Court issued a ruling limiting the ability of the government to return immigrants who arrived in Ceuta and its sister city, Melilla, by sea rather than by land (over a technical “border”).

All things considered, Spain has done everything in its power to encourage as much immigration as possible, and its government has openly conceded this fact, arguing that demographic and workforce realities make mass immigration an absolute necessity. Unsurprisingly, given all of this, the country’s foreign-born population jumped significantly in less than two years, from approximately 18.2% of the total population in 2024 to 20.3% today.

In light of Spain’s immigration policies and in the wake of the Ceuta disaster, over the weekend, several EU nations called for a suspension of Spain’s privileges under the Schengen Agreement, which allows borderless travel within the Schengen region: no passport control, a unified set of regulations, etc. Predictably, Meloni’s Italy was the first to speak up. Deputy PMs Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini announced a formal one-month suspension of Italy’s Schengen relations with Spain, closing Italy’s maritime and air entry points to Spain and introducing “targeted and selective” checks on non-EU travelers arriving from that country. France followed suit, reintroducing checks at its land border crossings with Spain. Finland began preparing to reimpose border controls along its own Schengen borders, and its interior minister, Mari Rantanen, offered the sharpest public statement by a government official to date: “Spain’s outer border is also our outer border, and. . . they have failed in their efforts to prevent this incursion, this invasion.” Denmark and Czechia both demanded Spain’s suspension from Schengen, but neither has taken unilateral action on its own.

In response, Pedro Sánchez complained that everyone, everywhere, was overreacting, stating that the rest of Europe was being “selfish, polarising, and unlawful.”

Taken as a whole, this entire episode—starting with Spain’s admitted desire to import as many immigrants as possible and continuing through this weekend’s demands for Spain’s suspension from Schengen—helps clarify some of the broader issues facing the EU.

First, in the age of mass immigration, Schengen shows clearly that the EU itself was a half-baked idea. Interestingly, Schengen did not start as an EU enterprise. It started as a side agreement between a handful of member states: Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. It was only in 1999, via the Amsterdam Treaty’s Schengen Protocol, that the “Schengen acquis” (the whole body of Schengen rules and agreements) was formally absorbed into EU law. In 2004, the EU—as opposed to its member states, a key distinction—tried to push a European constitution on its members, including provisions formally mandating Schengen compliance, making the EU “an area without internal frontiers, in which the free movement of persons is ensured. . . .”  The following year, French and Dutch voters explicitly rejected the constitution via referenda, which should, by all rights, have been the end of it. The EU being the EU, it decided that it wouldn’t take no for an answer and scaled the constitution back marginally and re-presented it as the Lisbon Treaty, which, among many foolish things, formalized and mandated participation in the Schengen migration policies.

Second, the Euro, the immigration mess, and the EU’s unwillingness to accept the will of the people as definitive confirm Robert Michels’ Iron Law of Oligarchy and show that the EU’s pretensions to “democracy” are rather laughable. Michels was a student of Max Weber, the founder of modern sociology, who sought to deepen his appreciation of socialism by studying the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), the most avowedly democratic, mass-participatory political organization in Europe at the time. He presumed that he would find a functional, egalitarian organization that confirmed all his fantastical priors. Instead, what he discovered was the opposite. He concluded, based on his study, that even organizations explicitly founded on democratic principles—universal participation, elected leadership, accountability to the membership—invariably develop into oligarchies, ruled by a small, self-perpetuating leadership class. It is simply the nature of large organizations. This, then, is Michels’ Iron Law of Oligarchy: “It is organisation that gives birth to the domination of the elected over the electors, of the mandataries over the mandators, of the delegates over the delegators. Who says organisation, says oligarchy.”

The EU is an oligarchy in Michelsian terms. It is governed by a small self-perpetuating ruling class that sees “the people” as impediments to its technocratic program and will do whatever is necessary to advance its agenda, regardless of the will of those people.

Finally, the EU will crumble. All Utopian enterprises eventually do. They must. They can’t help but do so. And while it may not be the monetary union that brings it down, something will. Maybe it will be Schengen and immigration. Maybe it will be something else. Who knows? Whatever the case, it will, eventually, collapse. The real, painful part of Michels’ Iron Law is the inability of oligarchies to reform themselves. They are incapable. What this suggests is that the EU’s response to the Ceuta incident and to Spain’s immigration unilateralism more generally will be to add more layers of centralizing regulation to the already oligarchical system, thereby making a bad problem even worse.

The EU won’t reform because it can’t reform. And so, it will collapse instead.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 03:30

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