US Energy Sec. Wright Says Saudi's Critical East-West Oil Pipeline Will Restart "Very Soon"

Summary:

• AP News Says East-West Pipeline Fix 3-5 Weeks 
• US Energy Sec. Wright Tells BBG TV East-West Pipeline Will Be Online "Very Soon"
• Oil Surges As Saudi Pipeline Crisis Puts 4% Of Global Supply At Risk; Bernstein Warns Of $150 Crude

Wright Tries To Calm Energy Markets 

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright joined Bloomberg TV to calm energy markets after last week's drone attack hit a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, prompting its immediate shutdown. The pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and transports crude to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export terminal.

Wright said the pipeline could resume operations "very soon" and that he had been in close contact with his Saudi counterpart.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline will be back up and running “very soon.” pic.twitter.com/vengmvxLG7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 14, 2026

"I might have more of a timeframe tomorrow," Wright said, adding that further clarity would emerge in the days ahead.

Wright also said more than 12 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz last night, putting the seven-day average above 10 million barrels a day.

AP News reported that flows through the pipeline could resume in three to five weeks.

Oil Surges As Saudi Pipeline Crisis Puts 4% Of Global Supply At Risk; Bernstein Warns Of $150 Crude

Brent crude futures jumped overnight after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks last week, threatening a critical route for bypassing the highly contested Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and a loss of what could amount to 4% of global supply. 

The global oil benchmark rose as much as 3.7% to above $108 a barrel before trimming gains to $107.70 by 6:00 a.m. ET, while WTI futures traded around $103.

Riyadh described the shutdown as precautionary but gave no timetable for restarting the pipeline, which can transport upwards of 7 million barrels a day.

New geospatial intelligence shows what appears to be high-resolution satellite imagery of the aftermath of the drone attack that destroyed pumping infrastructure. Vantor produced this satellite imagery and shared it on X via The Hormuz Letter.

BREAKING: New high-resolution satellite imagery shows the pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline burned out end to end, with the entire process area blackened and crude oil that escaped the site pooled across the desert beyond the perimeter, per Vantor imagery. https://t.co/DFJAplGNcC pic.twitter.com/uQEdn2YVFe

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 14, 2026

UBS energy expert Dominic Ellis summarized the weekend and overnight events unfolding across the Gulf region:

Brent has risen over $107/b on reports planned talks between Iran and GCC leaders on establishing a safe route through the Strait of Hormuz have been postponed indefinitely, and following reports Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline following attacks late last week.

The pipeline, with capacity of 7mb/d, had played an important role in re-routing oil away from the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of the pipeline's closure on Red Sea exports (combined with recent Houthi efforts to disrupt Red Sea flows) will continue to support oil prices for the foreseeable future.

Near-term impact on energy equities is positive – the UBS team flagged 40% upside to consensus 3Q earnings earlier this month (with refining-leveraged names like Repsol, Galp and OMV having 80-90% upside), and while buy-side numbers have likely responded to rapidly-changing macro conditions more frequently than those on the sell-side, I still believe market-wide caution on the sector means there is upside to expectations. 

Saudi oil traders told Reuters on Sunday that if the East-West pipeline is not restarted promptly, then Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for Red Sea exports. 

More color per the outlet:

Sources that spoke to Reuters gave varying estimates, with ​one saying the damage could take as long as five to six weeks to repair, while another said it could be fixed sooner ​and could resume pumping partially while repairs are ongoing.

Saudi Arabia's government media office and energy ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.For the past six months, the pipeline running through the desert across the Arabian Peninsula has spared Saudi Arabia from the brunt of the impact of the ​wartime shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that has crippled exports from its neighbours.

The world's biggest exporter has used the pipeline to ​reroute around 4 million barrels per day — around 4% of global supply — to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.But with the pipeline out ‌of service, ⁠Yanbu now has stocks to maintain exports for just five to seven days, according to three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports.Saudi Arabia also has stocks to supply customers for several days from Egypt's ports of Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, a fourth source said.

Yanbu storage capacity stands at around 35 million barrels, according to industry estimates, with Ain Sukhna and ​Sidi Kerir able to store 18 ​million and 20 million barrels ⁠respectively.Stocks are not full and will ultimately run out without the east-west pipeline resuming operations, the four sources said.Saudi oil supply has already fallen to a more than three-decade low in August on reduced ​flows via Hormuz and the Red Sea, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.World oil supply ​will decline this year by ⁠5.7 million bpd, or about 6%, the IEA, which coordinates Western energy policies, said.In addition to the attack on the pipeline, Houthi fighters in Yemen who have threatened Saudi oil shipments seized an island on Friday in the mouth of the Red Sea

Gulf developments over the weekend prompted Bernstein analysts Neil Beveridge and Brian Ho to warn that Brent could rally to between $120 and $150 a barrel as East-West pipeline disruptions collide with ongoing troubles along the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea.

Beveridge described the market as "chronically undersupplied" and said their existing $90 Brent forecast for 2026 had been "overtaken by events."

Combined flows through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal remain below 7 million barrels a day, compared with roughly 20 million before the conflict, according to Bloomberg.

One of the biggest restraints on crude prices this summer has been the 5 million-barrel-a-day reduction in Chinese imports. But analysts said that decline partly reflects Beijing tapping its estimated 1.5 billion barrels of SPR. Imports are now recovering and bidding up oil prices around the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 09:36

"Politically, There's No Viable Way Out Of This": Schiff Warns Of "Dangerous Feedback Loop"

Authored by SchiffGold via SchiffGold,

On Thursday, Peter joined host Danny on CapitalCosm to unpack the deepening cracks in the US debt market and what they mean for the dollar, oil, and the political landscape heading into 2026. He walks through weak Treasury demand, the fragile yen carry trade, and why "growing our way out of debt" remains a fantasy, before turning to how inflation is set to reshape the midterms and why the next Fed chair will likely follow the same inflationary playbook as his predecessors.

Peter starts with a recent Treasury auction that barely registered a ripple in the bond market, even though it revealed just how little appetite exists for US government debt. He explains that today's yields simply don't compensate investors for inflation risk over the long haul:

But the bottom line is, I mean, $6 billion is nothing. There's so much debt out there that nobody wants because the yields are not high enough to offset what you're gonna lose to inflation over the course of the maturity of these 10 year to 30 year US Treasuries. I mean, I know that 4.85, maybe that sounds like a high rate based on what we've had since the 2008 financial crisis. But prior to that crisis, this was not a high rate. And rates should be much higher now than they were pre 2008 because back then we had a fraction of the debt that we have now.

From there, Peter turns to Japan, where the yen's volatility threatens to upend one of the world's most important funding trades. He describes a dangerous feedback loop where currency moves in either direction could trigger a wave of Treasury selling:

Because if the yen keeps falling, that puts more pressure on Japan to sell treasuries to buy yen. So, best it is hoping that the yen rises so that the Japanese don't have to sell those treasuries. But if the yen keeps rising, that blows up the yen carry trade. And then a lot of other owners of US Treasuries are gonna be selling. And owners of other US dollar assets that were purchased with the borrowed yen that they're gonna be repaying if they're getting hit by a stronger yen.

Zooming out from the mechanics of the bond market, Peter addresses the political fantasy that America can simply expand its way out of its debt burden. He notes that this promise has been recycled for decades without ever coming true, and that Washington's newest hope rests on artificial intelligence delivering an economic miracle:

Politically, there's no viable way out of this other than to grow our way out. And the problem is they've been talking about growing our way out of the debt for 40 or 50 years. This is not new and we haven't done it. The problem keeps getting bigger and bigger because the debt grows faster than the economy. Now, they're hoping for a miracle with AI - that maybe AI is a game changer and we may grow the economy faster than the debt.

Peter then shifts to the political fallout of rising prices, arguing that inflation will flip the script for the 2026 midterms. Where Democrats bore the blame for the cost of living crisis in 2024, he expects Republicans to take the hit this time around:

In 2024, it was Biden and the Democrats, so that was easy for the Republicans. But the Republicans now own the economy, and they own the prices, especially when the Democrats can point to the tariffs, can point to the Iran war, right, as other factors that are contributing to the cost of living crisis, and that would be accurate.

Turning to commodities, Peter predicts that a weakening dollar will send energy prices sharply higher in the years ahead. He points to past oil spikes as a benchmark for where prices could realistically head next:

I think oil prices are headed higher, especially when the dollar really starts to tank, which it will. And so I think oil got to $140 a barrel in 2011. It was $100 a barrel in 2008. We're still significantly below that. I think we're gonna hit $200 a barrel on the price of oil in the next few years.

Peter closes by addressing speculation over the next Federal Reserve chair, arguing that regardless of who takes the job, the incentives always point toward the same outcome. He explains why inflation isn't an accident but a deliberate policy choice that every Fed chair, present and future, keeps making:

He said inflation is a choice, absolutely. All the Fed, all the former Fed chairs from Greenspan have chosen inflation. And Warsh is gonna make the same choice for the exact same reasons. Because the alternative is political suicide. They won't do it. Because it means we have to bite the bullet and pay the piper.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 09:05

 

 

For the second time in as many years, RWM made the Barron’s Top 100 RIA List.

What makes this year’s list especially interesting is both its focus on private equity’s entry into the advisor space — and our decision to avoid that approach.

Follow our history from the original announcement of the firm’s launch, through today, and it’s obvious we were built differently from the start. Any finance shop that came about out of frustration with how Wall Street managed money was not going to take the usual path.

We began with a fierce commitment to the Fiduciary standard. It was genuinely shocking to me that this was not the default setting for brokers or other wealth managers. Making that commitment means we could never cede control of the firm to any part of an industry that is as hyper-focused on profits at any cost (as parts of PE has been).

Everybody in our space is familiar with PE-funded roll-ups that became Franken-firms; we’ve all heard way too many stories about PE-funded acquisitions leading to bad outcomes. It’s not just the fiduciary standard that suffers; there have been aggressive contracts, threats of and actual litigation, and structural changes that changed the vibe of the firm. On the investing side, we see too many pricey, underperforming Alts, annuities, house products, etc. jammed into accounts. But for the outside investor, none of this would occur.

We were unwilling to accept the terms and conditions that came along with a pile of PE capital. And, we didn’t need the capital. Other than our purchase of FutureAdvisor (now Good Advice) from BlackRock, we have grown organically in the mid-double digits.

I am thrilled to be on the Barron’s Top 100 RIA list for the second year in a row. We expect to keep moving up that list until we are in the top half, quartile, and decile over the next decade. And the plan is to do it organically, no strings attached…

 

 

Previously:
RWM Makes Barron’s Top 100 RIA Firms! (September 15, 2025)

Succession (January 30, 2026)

 

 

Barron’s:

Our 11th annual ranking of independent advisory companies is based on assets managed by the firms, growth, technology spending, succession planning, and other metrics. Barron’s is ranking the largest registered investment advisor firms separately from its broader RIA ranking. Our 2026 mega RIAs each manage over $120 billion in assets, a 33% increase from last year, and staff over 1,000 people. Collectively, the nine firms represent nearly half of the total assets of all ranked firms.

The post 2026 Barron’s Top 100 RIA List appeared first on The Big Picture.

Futures Slide As Tech Tumbles On Fears Of AI Slowdown, Oil Jumps

US futures are sliding, dragged by fears of a possible AI development slowdown as well as higher oil prices (Brent > 108), though bond yields are not reacting yet (10Y yield still under 5%). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.6%, and potentially facing their first down 1% day since late July; Nasdaq futures plunging 1.5% as AI-linked stocks like chipmakers and memory tumble in US premarket trading following a call to put the brakes on developing cutting-edge models. Semis are down 4.7% pre-mkt, driven by the AI pullback story though China is pushing back saying the statements are alarmist; expect additional pushback from Trump. Software is +1.5% but Mag7 are weaker with NVDA -3.2%, TSLA -2.1%, and META -1.2%. Staples / HC are bid with Discretionary / Fins mixed but slightly positive. Industrials are also getting hit with AI theme (less data center contruction). Brent is rising and sitting close to $108/barrel on the shutdown of a Saudi pipeline and as a meeting between Iran and Gulf nations was delayed. That’s weighing on European bonds, mostly at the short-end. UK two-year yields are up six basis points, German two-year yields by five basis points. Treasuries are little changed at the short-end, while 10-year yields are down a basis point.  The USD is seeing its strongest day in 3 wks, rallying with oil and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up by 0.4%, with the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen among the underperformers. Gold prices are sinking and now below $4,300/oz. Commodities are mostly lower ex-Energy with WTI approaching $104/bbl with fuel prices higher; moves are driven by Saudi closing east/est pipeline and a delay on Iran/Gulf countries meetings to discuss Strait of Hormuz navigation. Base metals are outperforming Precious, but both are lower. US economic data slate empty for the session. Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Nvidia (NVDA) falls 2.3% as AI leaders called for a slower pace of development of their most advanced and lucrative models (Alphabet +1.8%, Amazon -0.4%, Apple +0.5%, Meta +2.6%, Microsoft +0.3%, Tesla -1.5%)

• Chipmakers and other artificial intelligence-related firms slide. Decliners include Intel (INTC) -6%, Micron (MU) -5% and CoreWeave (CRWV) -7%.
• Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) gains 6% after the Financial Times reported that billionaire Michael Dell’s family office is nearing a deal to acquire the insurance brokerage firm.
• Corning (GLW) falls 9% after entering into a $2 billion equity distribution agreement with Goldman Sachs.
• Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) rises 16% after the company announced that its Phase 3 Panorama study met its primary and key secondary efficacy endpoints.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) falls 7% after Evercore ISI downgraded the company to inline from outperform, citing valuation in the wake of recent strength.
• Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) falls 9% after AstraZeneca’s Etcamah failed to meet the primary endpoint of progression-free survival in a late-stage trial in first-line advanced breast cancer.
• Rum Group (RUM) rallies 11% after the Information reported that Anthropic has struck a $13.7 billion compute pact with the firm.
• Scholar Rock (SRRK) rises 6% after the drug developer said the US FDA has approved its muscle-targeted therapy for spinal muscular atrophy. Analysts are positive about the approval, with many raising their price targets ahead of the drug launch.

In other corporate news, Anthropic was said to pick Nasdaq for a potential listing. It also told investors it expects a second straight quarter of positive adjusted operating profit, according to the FT.  OpenAI will not go public in 2026, Sam Altman told Fortune Magazine in an interview, citing need for safety-related work. Kalshi is filing for regulatory approval to offer the first single-stock perpetual futures in the US and is looking to expand the contracts in commodities to include agriculture. In deals, Apollo is in discussions to acquire Johnson & Johnson’s orthopedics unit for $20 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Billionaire Michael Dell’s family office is nearing a deal to acquire The Baldwin Insurance Group, an insurance brokerage with a market value of $4.2 billion.

Stock futures slide, led by tech names after leaders of the biggest artificial-intelligence firms proposed slowing the technology’s development. An ETF tracking key chip stocks dropped 5% in early trading as traders fretted that efforts to rein in AI could weigh on the boom driving hundreds of billions of dollars in capital spending. OpenAI backer SoftBank slid the most in nearly three months, while South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 3.3%. S&P 500 contracts were down 0.6%. 

“There was a bit of irrational exuberance in the middle of the summer that’s been unwound,” said Chris Armstrong at Berenberg. “This is, I think, another leg bringing down expectations.”

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei sparked the rout after saying on Saturday that the company would introduce fresh safeguards as he urged the industry to slow the development of its most advanced models. OpenAI’s Sam Altman backed the proposal, while xAI’s Elon Musk said “Dario is right.”

Questions remain over how committed AI leaders will be to moderate the pace of development, given intense competition from China. President Donald Trump downplayed the concerns, while China dismissed them as “fearmongering.”

“Having guardrails would help steer the direction of AI development, but we do not think it is going to slow it down,” noted Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The direction of travel, in our view, would still remain forward.”

Nevertheless, tech - the biggest weighting in the S&P 500 - is facing pressure on both sides of the valuation equation: Tighter financial conditions are pushing up the discount rate, while Amodei’s intervention puts fresh scrutiny on the growth assumptions underpinning the AI trade.

Fresh disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East added to the dour mood. Brent jumped 3.7% to top $108 a barrel after Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline as a precaution following attacks. The dollar rose 0.3% while treasuries slipped as money markets saw a nearly 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday. Gold tumbled. 

“Two unwelcome headwinds collide,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst for KCM Trade. “Warnings that AI development needs to slow down, combined with another leg higher in oil prices after the Saudi East-West pipeline closure, are a difficult mix for risk assets.”

The selloff in tech stocks comes at the start of a week in which both the Fed and Bank of Japan face pressure to raise rates as policymakers meet Wednesday and Friday, respectively, against a backdrop of mounting inflation risks. Traders are pricing a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike this week. Most strategists aren’t too worried, with those at banks including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs saying any declines driven by expected tightening are likely to be short-lived given healthy earnings.

While a Bank of England hike on Thursday isn’t anticipated, the prospect of a shift toward an increase in November remains on the cards. “We will take each decision when it is needed, and we will not waver when the evidence calls for action,” Kazimir said Monday in an op-ed on the website of Slovakia’s central bank, which he heads.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 dipped 0.3%. The region’s bonds underperformed as higher oil and gas prices worsened the inflation outlook. Yields on two-year UK gilts rose eight basis points to 4.89%. The euro hit a one-month low against the dollar. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Campari shares rose as much as 4.5%, the most in six weeks, after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight, noting the beverage maker’s strategy is yielding results and that a cash-flow inflection is potentially on the horizon
• Axfood climbed as much as 4.3%, the most since January, as Handelsbanken upgrades the Swedish retailer to buy from hold
• European semiconductor stocks and those linked to data centers fell after leaders of some of the world’s largest AI companies called for a slower pace of development for safety
• Fallers include Soitec (-13%), Aixtron (-9.8%), Technoprobe (-8.0%), Infineon (-8.1%), ASM International (-9.2%), BE Semi (-7.1%) and ASML (-5.4%)
• GlobalData slumped as much as 26%, the most since Jan. 2009, as JPMorgan says the research and consulting solutions firm’s outlook reset is negative for sentiment
• Cerillion shares dropped as much as 21%, the most on record, after the billings software provider said full-year revenue will be below consensus expectations due to customer order delays

Asian stocks fell after leaders of the world’s biggest artificial intelligence platforms called for slower development of advanced models, citing growing risks from the technology. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 1.1% before paring some of the loss, though a subgauge of tech stocks was down 2.4% — the worst-performance among sector groups. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi slumped more than 3% to be the top loser in the region. Indian markets were shut for a holiday. In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto removed Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa in his latest cabinet shakeup, and appointed Deputy Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara as the new finance chief. The nation’s benchmark stock index rebounded from an intraday loss of 2.6% to finish the session little changed. A gauge of Asian semiconductor stocks was down 2.4%, heading for a third day of declines, which would mark its longest losing run since July 30.

“Risk assets really had no other direction to head other than down, given the comments about the pace of AI development from the US tech heavyweights, and the fresh move higher in oil,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “The medium and longer term sustainability of the AI bullish momentum trend is in tact, but questions over the speed of growth in the short term have resulted in traders hitting the sell button today.”

In FX, the dollar is rallying with oil and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up by 0.4%, with the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen among the underperformers.

In rates, the latest jump in commodity prices has not fully weighed on bonds yet: treasuries are steady with yields broadly within a basis point of Friday’s close across the curve, outperforming bunds and gilts where front-end yields are cheaper by 5bp and 6bp following a jump in energy prices. US 10-year yield is back around 4.97% after barely exceeding Friday’s multiyear high near 4.98%; European bonds lag, flattening yield curves, with WTI crude oil futures up 2.7% after the shutdown of a Saudi pipeline. European bonds are lower, mostly at the short-end. UK two-year yields are up six basis points, German two-year yields by five basis points. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings already; dealers expect around $55 billion this week, front-loaded ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Tuesday and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday.

In commodities, Brent is rising and sitting close to $108/barrel on the shutdown of a Saudi pipeline and as a meeting between Iran and Gulf nations was delayed.  WTI crude oil futures are up 2.7%. Gold prices are sinking and now below $4,300/oz.

US economic data slate empty for the session. Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump played down the idea of further guardrails in most advanced AI models, saying the US needs to keep its lead over China. BBG
• China’s spy agency has warned that AI could pose a risk to the country’s political and social security, signaling growing concern in Beijing that rapid advances in the technology could be exploited against the country. FT
• Oil rose as a meeting between Iran and several Gulf nations on a temporary shipping lane was postponed, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remained closed, following last week’s attacks by Iraqi militants. BBG
• U.S. President Donald ‌Trump on Sunday called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a shortage of the fuel that is "hurting the world". RTRS
• A wave of long-distance Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries in recent months ⁠has reduced that country's fuel production, triggering gasoline shortages across the country. RTRS
• Just as Ukraine was learning how to parry Russia’s drone attacks, Moscow has moved the goal posts with a new generation of innovative jet-powered weapons. WSJ
• The CMBS market is being reshaped by a surge in data-center deals, forcing investors to grapple with an entirely new set of risks. BBG
• A year after shifting production and sourcing out of China to avoid higher U.S. tariffs, some companies are learning that replicating the country's factory ecosystem is not so easy and are bringing manufacturing back. RTRS
• Eurozone governments are gearing up for one of the biggest leadership reshuffles in the European Central Bank’s 28-year history, with a “grand package” over its three top roles expected to be agreed by the end of December, according to people familiar with the matter. FT
• The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to nearly 5% this week, reaching its highest level since October 2023. Following an above-consensus CPI print, Goldman economists expect a 25 bp hike at the FOMC meeting next week. Their rates strategists believe that the combination of rising oil prices, a repricing of the Fed path, strong economic growth, and AI investment have lifted long-term interest rates
• House Speaker Johnson said US President Trump's proposed $5,000 dividend for every US adult would require congressional approval, contradicting Trump's claim that the payments can be made without authorization.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after gradually improving from the initial risk-off mood seen at the start of the session, which had been triggered by AI-related selling after key industry executives called for a slowdown in AI development. There were also headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West Pipeline following drone attacks last week, which threatens the loss of 4% of global supply, while Oman postponed the Persian Gulf meeting on Monday, where Iran had planned to formally unveil a temporary shipping lane agreement for the Strait of Hormuz. ASX 200 was kept afloat in range-bound trade amid resilience in defensives and the consumer sectors, while there were some comments from RBA Assistant Governor Hunter, who stated that Australian household spending is holding up okay and business investment is showing signs of strength, but also noted inflation remains above target. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open amid notable losses in Kioxia and with SoftBank dropping by double-digit percentages owing to its heavy AI exposure, although the index is well off today's worst levels amid mixed yields in Japan and with the TOPIX index in the green. KOSPI underperformed amid losses in semiconductor heavyweights, while today marks the start of the Korea Exchange extending trading hours to allow stock trading until 8pm local time. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp pared opening losses and moved into the green, but with upside capped ahead of tomorrow's activity data, while US President Trump said he is not worried about Chinese President Xi cancelling their planned summit after reports that Beijing informed Washington it will cancel the planned summit if any new arms sales to Taipei are approved.

Top Asian News

• PBoC plans to expand the yuan offshore market and will consider expanding the central bank's macroprudential and financial stability roles, adding that they will innovate macroprudential policy tools and support steady economic recovery and growth.

European bourses are broadly lower to start the week, with Italy's FTSE MIB the underperformer, while the SMI and FTSE 100 print decent gains, helped by updates in the Pharma space. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Health Care tops the sector pile, with Optimised Personal Care and Food, Beverages & Tobacco rounding out the leaders. Tech leads the downside, followed by Basic Resources and Industrials. The overnight downside was driven by Anthropic CEO Amodei, urging a slowdown in the development of the most advanced AI systems to prevent AI from slipping beyond human control. The effect this has on semiconductors may be slower capex investment; however, Amodei insists that pacing AI capabilities will not necessarily translate into reduced spending or growth. As a result, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics slumped overnight (-6.4% and -4.1%, respectively), while ASML is currently down by 5.2%, while US behemoth NVIDIA slides by 2.5% pre-market.

Top European News

• Exit polls showed that Sweden's centre-left opposition is on course for an election win in a blow to the far-right, while broadcaster SVT's revised projections suggest the opposition bloc is on course to win 175 seats and the incumbent right-wing bloc is on course to win 174 seats.
• Swedish election is reportedly too close to call as total count may take days.
• Fitch affirmed Italy at 'BBB+'; outlook stable.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are lower against the broadly stronger USD, as traders increase their bets on a rate hike this week. JPY is the clear underperformer this morning on widening yield differentials, followed closely by the Kiwi. The Loonie fares a touch better vs peers, thanks to higher energy prices and simmering down in US-Canada tensions; Trump recently downplayed leaving the USMCA, with both countries suggesting that a deal would be found “fairly soon”.
• DXY is stronger this morning and currently trades towards the upper end of a 99.07 to 99.60 range. Much of the upside comes as a number of sell-side banks bring forward their bets of a hike this week; Goldman Sachs the latest to do so. As it stands, money markets assign an 86% chance of a hike this week. There’s not a whole lot on the docket heading into the Wednesday meeting, so the index will likely remain within familiar ranges – though any updates on the geopolitical situation would spur a break in either direction.
• JPY is the clear underperformer this morning on higher expectations that the Fed will join the BoJ in hiking rates this week. Much of the strength in the JPY over the past couple of weeks has been attributed to narrowing yield differentials (hawkish BoJ), and joint intervention worries. Another bout of near-term strength in the JPY would likely require a hawkish BoJ on Friday, and particularly, board members explicitly guiding for a faster pace of rate hikes. Recent source reports have suggested that the Bank could do this. USD/JPY currently holds within a 153.37 to 154.61 range.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs (+3+ ticks) hold afloat, whilst Bunds (-4 ticks) and Gilts (-3 ticks) have been pressured by another bout of strength in the energy complex. For reference, energy benchmarks are moving higher on a) postponement of Iran-Gulf talks on the Strait and b) Saudi shutting a key pipeline.
• USTs remain firmer this morning, and currently hold within a 106-03 to 106-10+ range. Strength which comes despite sell-side banks boosting their bets of a hike this week, and higher energy prices. The environment is clouded by fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty. This is made evident by sustained elevated yields; the US 10-year (4.96%) trades just shy of the 5.00% mark, and a hawkish Fed mid-week will likely see it top that mark.
• Bunds and Gilts have been pressured throughout the European morning as energy benchmarks gradually picked up. Gilts are pressured given their high dependency on external energy, and as traders eye the BoE this week.
• BTPs have steadily fallen throughout the morning and are currently at the lower end of their 111.96-112.57 range. After-hours on Friday, Fitch affirmed Italy at 'BBB+'; outlook stable. The credit agency commented that the "continued increase in public debt/GDP over the medium term" is a risk that could result in a downgrade. Regarding the upcoming elections, Fitch observed that the "recent political stability has been a positive anchor for Italy's sovereign rating", and that the law to switch the proportional electoral system could favour a stable government.

Commodities

• Snapshot: Crude benchmarks are stronger this morning on a) the postponement of the Iran-Gulf nations meeting, and b) Saudi Arabia shutting the East-West pipeline. Spot gold is hampered by a stronger USD, whilst base metals have been dented by the risk-tone.
• To recap the geopolitical environment briefly, Oman postponed the Persian Gulf meeting on Monday, where Iran had planned to formally unveil a temporary shipping lane agreement for the Strait of Hormuz. Axios suggested that Saudi was concerned that the new Strait proposal would effectively establish a new status quo; however, the Iranian FM Spokesperson suggested that the meeting was postponed due to the Yemen-Saudi situation. On the supply front, Saudi shut the East-West pipeline, which reportedly threatens the loss of c. 4% of global supply. Marhelm sources pointed out that repairs could take over a month.
• Given the above, crude benchmarks gapped higher at the open and traded sideways for most of the APAC session. As the European session got underway, the oil complex caught another bid higher (on reports that the IRGC shot down a US drone, and following Iran FM comments). As it stands, Brent Nov’26 (+2.6%) holds at the top end of a USD 106.11/bbl to 108.65/bbl range; WTI Nov’26 (+2.6%) also holds at the upper end of a USD 101.59/bbl to 103.83/bbl range.
• Spot gold (-1.6%) has been hampered by a stronger USD (increased rate hike bets) and higher energy prices. As such, the yellow metal currently sits at the bottom end of a USD 4,279.28/oz to USD 4,355.40/oz range. This week, action for gold will be dictated by any geopolitical developments and the Fed mid-week. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the red, given the downbeat risk tone. 3M LME Copper currently trades at the lower end of a USD 14,100-14,236/t range.
• Saudi oil buyers and traders warned the kingdom could run out of oil stocks for exports if it doesn’t restart a major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, which could lead to a loss of up to 4% of global supply.
• Marhelm cited sources within Saudi Arabia that stated the damages to the East-West Pipeline will take over a month to repair due to a lack of spare parts and deeply impacted supply chains. Furthermore, it was stated that minor damages to the pipe have been repaired, but catastrophic damage to pumping infrastructure will take longer to fix.
• Exxon (XOM) executive said that they see US LNG supply growing to make c. 30% of global LNG supply by 2030.
• Shell (SHEL LN) executive said around 36mln tonnes of LNG from the Middle East have been lost to date.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he’s not worried about Chinese President Xi calling off their summit scheduled for this month, while Japanese media reported that Beijing informed Washington it will cancel the planned summit if any new arms sales to Taipei are approved.
• US President Trump suggested he may be willing to permit a Chinese car company to build EVs in the US if it did so with US workers. It was separately reported that President Trump said the US will lift tariffs on Irish whiskey.
• US President Trump expressed optimism regarding resolving the trade dispute with Canada soon and downplayed prospects of leaving the USMCA, while Trump took verbal jabs at Europe regarding trade and immigration during his Ireland visit.
• Canadian PM Carney is set to meet with UK PM Burnham as Canada deepens its relations with Europe, while Carney proposed that Canada should become the EU's first 'associate member', and the bloc is said to be open to the idea.

Central Banks

• ECB President Lagarde said the current inflation shock is longer-lasting, with the volatility and pressure on energy prices to continue amid the conflict in the Middle East.
• ECB's Kazaks said the case is building for more tightening and the ECB can afford to act stepwise without rushing.
• ECB's Simkus said he cannot exclude action at any meeting, adding that December is a natural time to assess the situation more.
• ECB’s Kazimir said all options will be considered for the next decision, but action will be taken if necessary.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump said Iran-backed Houthis asked the US not to target them, while Trump reiterated that he expects the Iran war to end this year, possibly after the Midterms, but also suggested that the US could stay in Iran and keep the oil, like the Venezuela deal.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that Saudi Arabia insisted that the meeting between Iran and Gulf nations in Oman not to take place and it will be postponed to another date due to the Yemen situation. The spokesperson added that the MoU between Iran and Oman is the result of weeks of intensive negotiations and was drafted with full respect for the sovereign rights of the two countries. On the situation in Iran, Baghaei said Iran has no interference in Yemen and denied any participation in the attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline. On the reports about nuclear activity in Pickaxe mountain, he called them "baseless".
• Oman postponed the Persian Gulf Foreign Ministers meeting for an indefinite period. This was later confirmed by Iran.
• Oman's Energy Minister said the Strait of Hormuz will be open and it's probably a short-term situation, while he is pleased Oman is still able to continue producing oil and gas. Furthermore, he stated that skyrocketing oil and LNG prices are not sustainable and the situation should stabilise in the medium-term.
• Iran's Akbari said "The Iranian route can be a sustainable alternative to the Red Sea route and ensure the connection of Asia, India, China and Singapore to Europe in times of crisis"
• Iran’s PGSA published an updated list of 77 vessels allegedly violating Iranian Strait of Hormuz protocols. The listed vessels could face future passage restrictions, including fines, detention or confiscation. Vessels cooperating with sanctioned ships will also be added to the list.
• Houthi Spokesperson claimed the attack on Saudi's King Khaliq Air base, stating "The Armed Forces will continue to carry out significant military operations towards Saudi territory as long as it continues its unjust aggression against our people".
• Saudi Crown Prince met the US CENTCOM chief to discuss the latest regional developments, according to Saudi state TV.
• Saudi civil defence issued emergency alerts for Khamis Mushait, Abha City, Jizan region and Najra province but said the danger has passed.
• Saudi Yanbu oil exports were halted after a pipeline attack, while weekend reports noted multiple explosions struck Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Industrial City on Sunday.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump said he could settle the UK-Argentina dispute regarding the Falklands, while he separately commented that he would love to see Ireland unified.
• North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles towards its east coast on Saturday.
• US President Trump said he warned Ukrainian President Zelensky to stop targeting Russian oil refineries as strikes have shut down diesel refining and helped lift prices of the fuel to record levels.

US Event Calendar

• No major events scheduled

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My new chartbook is on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site here, where it is open to all. Titled " The Home Straight ", it examines the key market themes as we enter the final stretch of the year. 

Welcome to a new week and one where I've started it with a severe case of manflu. My Whoop and Oura ring are flashing code red which was useful to show my wife as vague proof of my demise. While I coughed and spluttered, one of the more interesting developments over the weekend was a rare show of agreement amongst several of the most prominent AI leaders. The debate centred on whether frontier AI development is now moving so quickly that safety, oversight and our ability to fully understand the systems need more time to catch up. Whilst this falls a long way short of calling for a pause in development, it does represent one of the clearest acknowledgements yet from within the industry that there may be limits to how fast capabilities can responsibly advance. For markets, the key question is whether this is the first sign that the extraordinary AI investment cycle might eventually moderate. For now, that seems unlikely. The competitive race between companies and countries remains intense, and it's difficult to imagine firms voluntarily stepping back while rivals continue to push ahead. It is hard to see China standing still. Indeed, that's something President Trump said yesterday in response to the weekend news. He didn't seem in favour of any kind of pause.  

I suppose another way of looking at it is that if leading executives are openly discussing the risks of increasingly powerful systems, it could be them trying to get across how transformative they believe the technology may become and help advertise the power of their product. So rather than signalling less spending, it could simply be that a greater share of AI investment is directed towards safety, monitoring and governance alongside the continued build-out of compute infrastructure. The debate may therefore alter the composition of AI capex more than its overall scale.  

Markets in Asia have reacted negatively to the story with the KOSPI (-2.74%) emerging as the region's biggest underperformer. Chipmakers led the declines, with SK Hynix (-6.60%) and Samsung Electronics (-4.01%) weighing heavily on the index. The Nikkei 225 (-1.01%) is also under pressure amid broader weakness across the semiconductor sector. Major tech investor Softbank is -11.24% lower. Elsewhere, Chinese equities are mixed, with the CSI 300 (-0.32%) trading lower, while the Hang Seng (+0.35%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.16%) are bucking the regional trend and remain in positive territory. S&P 500 (-0.50%) and NASDAQ 100 (-1.25%) futures are being notably impacted by the AI story, more than for Stoxx futures (-0.33%). 10yr USTs are around +0.6bps higher at 4.97%. The AI story would have probably led to a rally, but Brent is back up +2.82% to $107.56/bbl.

This follows the precautionary shutdown of a major Saudi pipeline late on Friday following recent attacks, and the postponement of today's planned meeting between Iran and other Gulf states to discuss the creation of a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. Several countries seem to have reservations about the plan. Meanwhile focus remains on the advances by the Iranian backed Houthis along the Red Sea around the Yemen coast, another important chokepoint.  

Moving on, it's a bumper week for central bank decisions, with the Fed (Wednesday), BoE (Thursday) and BoJ (Friday) all meeting. Key data releases include US retail sales (Wednesday) and industrial production (Friday), UK inflation (Wednesday) and labour market data (Tuesday), economic activity in China (tomorrow), and inflation and trade in Japan (Friday and Wednesday respectively). Other events include the annual testimony of the US Treasury Secretary namely Bessent (tomorrow), and the State of the Union address in Europe (Wednesday).

Delving into more detail now and the main event for markets will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Our economists have long expected a 25bp rate hike with the market now at 87% this morning up from around 35% two Friday's ago just before Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Such a move would take the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Our economists believe the accompanying projections are likely to show a somewhat stronger growth outlook alongside still-elevated inflation. They have also added an extra hike in March to their forecast which now makes it 75bps of hikes over the next 7 months. A big focus will be Warsh's press conference and how he squares the circle between a dislike of forward guidance and calming markets which are baying for more info. See DB's preview note  here.
Friday’s inflation data strengthened the case for action this week. Core CPI rose by 0.29% in August, a touch above expectations and up from 0.22% in July. The details were also firm, with notable strength in wireless services, airfares and lodging-away-from-home prices. Meanwhile, last Thursday’s PPI report contained hawkish elements, including stronger hospital and international airfare prices. Combining the latest CPI and PPI data, our economists estimate August core PCE increased by 0.27%, a pace they do not view as consistent with sufficient progress back towards the Fed’s inflation target.

Attention will now turn to incoming US activity data. Tomorrow, markets will receive Treasury Secretary Bessent’s annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. On Wednesday, August US retail sales are released and our economists expect a rebound to +0.9% month-on-month, following July’s -0.6% decline. They also forecast ex-auto sales at +0.6% and retail control sales at +0.3%, arguing that July’s weakness looked more like a temporary pause in consumer spending than the start of a broader slowdown. On Friday, industrial production is due and our economists expect growth to edge up to +0.3% from +0.2% previously.

Looking beyond the US, the BoE announces its latest policy decision on Thursday. Our economists expect Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%, with a 6-3 voting split, and continue to see the MPC remaining relatively cautious compared with some other major central banks. However, the bond market and energy moves at the end of the week make it a closer call than it was, with futures pricing in a 23% probability of a move, up from under 10% early last Thursday. See our economists' preview here. Before that, UK labour market data are released tomorrow, while August CPI is due on Wednesday. Our economists expect headline inflation to rise to 3.04% YoY, while core CPI eases slightly to 2.53% YoY. UK retail sales, together with the GfK consumer confidence survey, follow on Friday.

In Asia, the BoJ concludes its meeting on Friday. Our economists expect a 25bp rate hike (futures price in a 98% probability now), and argue that external considerations, including pressure for greater FX stability, are likely to be at least as important as domestic economic fundamentals in driving the decision. See their preview here. Japan also releases trade data and core machine orders on Wednesday, followed by national CPI on Friday, where our economists expect core inflation excluding fresh food to remain at 1.8% YoY.

China’s August activity indicators are released tomorrow. Our economists expect industrial production growth to accelerate to 5.0% YoY from 4.5%, while retail sales and fixed-asset investment should also improve. Elsewhere, Germany’s ZEW survey is due tomorrow, while the ECB publishes its consumer expectations survey on Friday.

On the political front, the European Commission President delivers the annual State of the Union address on Wednesday, setting out priorities for the year ahead. Finally, the NATO’s Military Committee Conference takes place in Copenhagen at the end of the week.
Recapping last week now, the main story was a huge selloff for sovereign bonds, which pushed yields up to multi-year highs around the world. The main catalyst for that was a fresh surge in energy prices, with Brent crude oil up +8.65% last week (-2.81% Friday) to $104.61/bbl. Moreover, it wasn’t just confined to oil, as European natural gas futures also jumped +10.52% (-3.08% Friday) to €79.50/MWh. So that led to mounting fears of stagflation, along with growing speculation that central banks would hike rates more aggressively.

The prospect of faster hikes was given further support by the latest data. In particular, the US CPI print showed core CPI running faster than expected at +0.3% in August (vs. +0.2% expected), even as headline inflation was in line with consensus at +0.4%. So that led to mounting expectations that the Fed would deliver a rate hike at the next meeting, with futures raising the chance from 62% to 88% over the course of the week. Meanwhile, last week also saw the ECB deliver a hawkish 25bp rate hike, as their statement said that “inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period”, and they upgraded their growth and inflation forecasts.

That backdrop meant that sovereign bonds sold off around the world. That was particularly clear at the front end, as the US 2yr Treasury yield saw its biggest weekly jump since the Liberation Day tariff turmoil in April 2025, up +25.9bps last week (+3.9bps Friday) to 4.63%. Moreover, it was also its highest closing level since July 2024. Otherwise, the 10yr Treasury yield saw its biggest weekly jump since May, up +18.5bps (+0.4bps Friday) to 4.97%. And over in Europe, the 10yr bund yield was up +16.5bps (+0.4bps Friday), ending the week at a post-2009 high of 3.50%.  

All that put mounting pressure on risk assets, with the S&P 500 down -0.80% last week (+0.86% Friday). Indeed, it would have been even worse were it not for the resilience of the Mag 7, which still rose +0.63% last week (+1.00% Friday). Then in Europe, there were even bigger falls given the continent’s greater exposure to higher energy prices, and the STOXX 600 fell -1.66% last week (+0.49% Friday). Elsewhere, credit spreads were more mixed. In the US, IG spreads (-2bps) and HY spreads (-2bps) saw a modest tightening. But it was the reverse picture for Euro IG spreads (+2bps) and HY spreads (+3bps).

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 08:31

EU NatGas Hits Highest Since 2022 As Low Storage Sets Stage For Winter Cold-Snap Price Shock

European natural gas futures hit their highest level since December 2022 (early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict) as domestic supplies remain well below the 15-year average. With the Northern Hemisphere winter approaching, the restocking phase may be jeopardized by maritime chokepoint madness across the Gulf and Red Sea, with the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Strait under threat.

Dutch benchmark futures jumped as much as 5.3% to 83.67 euros a megawatt-hour early Monday. Prices have tripled so far this year, and the latest surge comes after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was taken offline in recent days following a drone strike on pumping infrastructure.

Europe is heading toward the heating season with gas storage facilities just 68% full, well below the 15-year trend of about 85% for this time of year.

LNG arrivals into Western Europe retreated last week after an early-September recovery, while inventory replenishment slowed.

"The delay pushes any prospect of de-escalation even further out of reach," analysts at ING Groep NV wrote in a note earlier.

A Timera Energy analyst warned that one consequence of low gas storage "is a more fragile winter balance," adding, "That increases the potential for volatility if cold weather or another supply shock emerges faster than cargoes can respond."

Translation: one cold snap this coming winter could trigger sharp price swings and intensify pressure on European households, as the energy-stricken continent is more than ever held hostage to conflicts in the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 08:25

US Miner Almonty Strikes Major Deal With Africa's Largest Tungsten-Producing Country

Almonty Industries is positioning itself to "become the leading Western producer of tungsten," potentially as early as 2027, as Western buyers confront a severe supply shortage sparked by China and, more broadly, what we've described as "resource nationalism."

Bloomberg reports that Almonty has partnered with Rwanda's government, securing a foothold in Africa's largest tungsten-producing nation. The deal aims to accelerate access to existing production and develop a traceable, conflict-free supply chain for Western governments, reducing dependence on China's quasi-monopolistic market position on not just tungsten but rare earths.

Under a binding agreement disclosed early Monday, Rwanda will receive a 25% stake in Almonty's local subsidiary in exchange for an exploration concession and a processing license. The Dillon, Montana-based miner will retain a 75% stake. 

Almonty's strategy to partner with Rwanda, as described by Bloomberg's James Attwood, targets one of the West's most pressing problems in its race to secure critical materials: new mines take years to build, while supplies are desperately needed. 

Attwood explained: 

Rather than waiting years for a new mine to be developed, the partnership plans to begin acquiring ore, pre-concentrate and panning tailings from existing licensed Rwandan producers, including small-scale miners. That material can initially be sold, upgraded or exported while the partners work toward building a permanent collection and processing facility in Rwanda.

CEO Lewis Black told Attwood in an exclusive interview that the Rwanda deal is the quickest and most viable solution to boost tungsten supply for the West, as new mines take years to develop and partnering with existing producers can deliver supplies more quickly. 

"Traders can play with the pirates," Black said. "We're only interested in licensed domestic output."

Black said the US government helped structure the deal but is not funding the new venture. Tungsten will be shipped to customers in the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea, he added.

The US government's involvement in the deal only suggests the urgency by the Trump administration to identify leading tungsten companies, such as Almonty, to quickly come up with solutions as China chokes the world of this critical material that underpins defense production, semiconductor manufacturing, AI data center buildouts, power grid upgrades and industrial tooling. 

Black also noted that the new venture plans to deploy a mobile processing unit near existing tailings dams and explore the roughly 12-square-mile Shyorongi concession. The deal boosts near-term supplies for Almonty while simultaneously developing a larger domestic processing and production base. 

Back said the deal with Africa's largest tungsten producer and ranked seventh globally in 2025 serves as a blueprint for other countries where small-scale tungsten mining is practiced and it only seems like Almonty can take this blueprint and begin building out a rapid sourcing network of tungsten and become the early leader in deliverable tungsten on an ex-China basis. 

For Almonty, the deal expands its existing network, which includes a major mine ramping up in South Korea, operations in Portugal and projects in Spain and the US.

Almonty began processing ore at its crown jewel, the Sangdong mine in South Korea, in June, marking its transition to scalable tungsten ore production, with throughput potentially increasing to 1.2 million tons of tungsten ore in 2027.

In July, Almonty expanded its agreement with Pennsylvania-based Global Tungsten & Powders, extending the term to 21 years, increasing total contracted volumes by 40% and improving pricing by approximately 6.3%. This establishes a direct route into US industrial and defense supply chains.

Almonty's most recent presentation describes itself as becoming the leading Western tungsten producer following Sangdong's Phase II expansion and an extension at Portugal's operating Panasqueira mine.

Almonty is pursuing that higher-value processing opportunity through a planned South Korean tungsten oxide plant with an initial annual capacity of 4,000 tons, then expanding to 6,000 tons.

Companies that can bring supply online sooner could capture a crucial early market advantage, including Almonty as it ramps up tungsten production in South Korea.

And that's why Jefferies initiated coverage earlier this month. 

Jefferies initiates critical mineral companies Almonty, Materion, USA Rare Earth and Neo Performance with Buy; the firms are expected to benefit from increased demand for supply outside of China.

Almonty (buy, PT $26.25)

Sees Almonty offering public exposure to Western tungsten…

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2026

Across the tungsten industry over the last several weeks, there have been troubling developments of "resource nationalism": 

• US Locks Down Scrap, UK Funds Mine, Zimbabwe Bans Exports, Vietnam Weighs Curbs

Last week, at the Jefferies Industrials Conference, MSC Industrial executive Martina McIsaac warned of a tungsten supply shock rippling through the company's supply chain and continuing to drive up industrial tooling costs. 

China's near-total control of the tungsten market ...

... which Beijing's February 2025 export-licensing requirements intensified the global shortage, contributing to a 70% decline in Chinese exports of ammonium paratungstate, or APT, through the first 11 months of 2025, according to Katusa analysts. 

Rotterdam APT prices jumped from around $390 per metric ton unit at the beginning of 2025 to roughly $3,400 this spring, according to Katusa Research. 

The shortage has spooked Wall Street, as mentions of "tungsten" on earnings calls have soared. 

Black said, "Better lucky than smart. Only need to be right once." 

The advantage today belongs to producers that can turn deals into verified and conflict-free deliverable tungsten. In a market defined by scarcity, as former Goldman commodities head Jeff Currie has warned, early movers that deliver reliable supplies to the West will earn Wall Street's recognition. That recognition could grow in the months ahead as the decoupling between China and the West accelerates.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 08:05

Bank Of England Spends £85k Researching How Best To Erase Churchill

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The Bank of England has spent more than £85,000 of research money to justify wiping Winston Churchill, Jane Austen, J.M.W. Turner and Alan Turing off Britain's banknotes and swapping them for hedgehogs, foxes and puffins.

A Freedom of Information trail shows Savanta was paid £49,000 to run focus groups that told officials historical figures were "elitist and divisive."

Another £22,500 went on public consultations about which animals should replace them. The Bank called the result a "positive evolution," not censorship.

Bank of England spent £85,000 on research to justify dropping Winston Churchill and other British heroes from banknotes https://t.co/gtu6zPAEZ5

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) September 12, 2026

The October 2025 Savanta report, delivered months before the nature theme was announced, warned that portraits of notable Britons were "contentious and not representative of the UK's cultural and natural diversity."

Officials were told historical figures represented "a backward-looking vision of the UK that carries too great a risk of division and controversy."

Most of the 119 focus-group participants said featuring such people was "potentially divisive, elitist and disconnected from their own experiences."

Churchill sits on the current £5. Austen is on the £10, Turner on the £20, Turing on the £50. All are scheduled to go. King Charles stays on the front.

Governor Andrew Bailey is due to pick the animals by the end of 2026 from a shortlist that includes the European hedgehog, red fox, Atlantic puffin, barn owl, common frog and bottlenose dolphin.

What the fuck does a dolphin have to do with the history of Great Britain?

The Bank insists the driver was an earlier consultation of 44,000 responses in which nature came top, plus the need for new anti-counterfeit features. Chief cashier Victoria Cleland said: "The key driver for introducing a new banknote series is always to increase counterfeit resilience, but it also provides an opportunity to celebrate different aspects of the UK.

Nature is a great choice from a banknote-authentication perspective and means we can showcase the UK's rich and varied wildlife."

Critics were not buying the security alibi. Reform UK's Nigel Farage called the plan "absolutely crackers." Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said it was "erasing our history" and "a silly thing to do." Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said Churchill "deserves better than being replaced by a badger."

The same Whitehall that now treats Churchill as a liability was simultaneously lobbying for something even more ideological. Cabinet Office officials from the Office for Equality and Opportunity wrote to the Bank's chief cashier arguing that current figures gave an "incomplete picture" of British identity. They wanted "greater representation of women, disabled people, ethnic minority communities and LGBT+ individuals" to "send a strong signal of progress and recognition."

Imagine that set of banknotes.

Shadow minister Alex Burghart said government officials had been "caught red-handed conspiring with the Bank of England to remove them from our banknotes." Banknotes, he added, "should feature the greatest Britons - the historic figures that unite our country. They shouldn't be chosen on the basis of Labour's equality laws."

This is not an isolated design tweak. It sits inside a years-long campaign against British history and culture.

In June 2020, Churchill's Parliament Square statue, the Washington statue and the Cenotaph were boarded up as Black Lives Matter riots rolled through London. A petition demanded the box come off. It was treated as a victory for the mob that wanted the bronze gone.

The statue has been defaced again since, including with pro-Palestine slogans in 2026. The pattern is the same: protect the monument from the crowd by hiding it, then treat the hidden monument as proof that the figure himself is the problem.

Now the United Nations has joined the lecture. A UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination guidance tells former slaving states that "public spaces should honour the contributions of people of African descent."

It wants statues, memorials, rewritten schoolbooks and "reparatory justice." Historian Matt Goodwin's response was two words: "jog on." Professor Robert Tombs called the campaign "sinister" and "a huge financial and political scam."

While Churchill is priced off the currency, Sadiq Khan's Fourth Plinth in Trafalgar Square has been given over to Tschabalala Self's five-metre Lady in Blue: an overweight black woman in a tight dress and heels, billed as an "everywoman" and "a symbol of confidence and purpose."

Self said she is "not an idol to venerate or a historic figurehead to commemorate." City Hall called it an excellent addition. Large parts of the public called it an eyesore bolted onto the square that holds Nelson atop his column.

So let's recap. They boxed up the county's greatest leader. Commissioned consultants to declare him elitist and divisive. Lobbied for identity-group replacements. Installed a cartoon figure next to Nelson. Invited the UN to demand African statues as atonement. Then they spent £85,000 proving that a hedgehog is less "divisive" than the man who kept the country free from Nazi rule.

God help us.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 07:45

Fed Rate Hikes Will Increase US Interest Costs By $50 Billion

The biggest problem with the "short-terming" of the US Treasury stock, which under Bessent's extension of Yellen's Activist Treasury Issuance playbook, which pushed the percentage of T-Bills as a percentage of total debt to 23% - the highest since 2010 excluding the emergency surge during the covid crisis which relied entirely on Bills for government funding and briefly pushed the Bill percentage above 25% - even as total US debt rose above $40 trillion for the first time ever... 

... is that any rate hike will immediately increase the amount the country is spending on interest.

Which is especially concerning because, as we wrote on Friday when discussing the August budget deficit, gross US interest (for the LTM period) is now a record $1.4 trillion and is set to surpass Social Security as the largest US outlay within 2 years, likely hitting $2 trillion before 2030.  

The dramatic deterioration in the US fiscal picture prompted BofA's chief economist Aditya Bhave to pen a report ("In the interest of time", available to pro subs) in which he wrote that "the recent rise in interest rates, particularly at the long-end, coupled with US total debt crossing the $40tn threshold sparked a wave of commentary on the US fiscal picture."

According to Bhave, while elevated deficits since the pandemic have certainly contributed to the higher term premium, it’s unlikely that crossing the $40tn threshold contributed to the recent increase in long-term yields. That's because markets tend to respond to changes in the expected path of deficits and Treasury issuance rather than the level of debt alone. Importantly, there has been no policy announcement or fiscal development that meaningfully altered those expectations recently.

Instead, BofA notes, it appears that the recent rise in yields has been driven by higher inflation expectations owing to the rise in energy prices and questions over the Fed’s commitment to its price stability mandate, which were partially quieted by Warsh at Jackson Hole.

Regardless of what has driven the rise in yields, the BofA economist team cautions that higher interest rates across the curve do warrant a renewed focus on deficits. The deficit this year is on pace to once again eclipse 6% of GDP and a major reason for that is rising interest expense which has exceed spending on Defense and Medicare. The trend in interest costs is also notably worse than Medicare, Defense Spending and even Social Security, which have been more stable.

Source: BofA

And while the trend of US interest expense growth is already ruinous, here BofA repeats what we said above, namely that the current level of interest rates is likely to exacerbate these trends as Treasury refinances maturing debt at higher borrowing costs.

According to BofA calcs, the average interest rate on outstanding marketable Treasury debt remains well below prevailing market yields, at roughly 3.4%. Looking specifically at coupon-bearing securities, current market rates imply that debt rolled over in coming years will be refinanced at interest rates approximately 1.4 percentage points higher, on average, than those on the securities being retired.

Source: BofA

Most importantly, and this is what we started the post with, is that the Treasury's increased reliance on bills also leaves borrowing costs more sensitive to near-term monetary policy. As Bhave writes, nearly $7 trillion of Treasury bills are currently outstanding, the vast majority of which mature within one year. 

Source: BofA

Assuming the Fed hikes rates by 75bp this year as BofA expects (once this week, and two more times before the latest Fed Hiking cycle ends), BofA concludes that annual interest costs on outstanding T-bills could increase by roughly $50bn or ~15bps of GDP.

It gets worse.

As a reminder of the pernicious nature of compounding debt, in addition to higher refinancing costs on the horizon, BofA warns that a more fundamental concern is the feedback loop between interest rates and debt. Ultimately, debt sustainability depends not only on the level of interest rates, but also on how those rates compare with nominal GDP growth. When nominal growth exceed borrowing costs, debt-to-GDP ratios can stabilize over time. However, as the gap between interest rates and nominal growth narrows, higher debt levels become increasingly difficult to sustain.

The risk is that the self-reinforcing dynamic between interest costs and deficits can further narrow that gap over time.

Meanwhile, there is a feedback loop between higher interest costs and deficits that we must account for. Higher interest costs increase deficits and Treasury borrowing needs, which in turn result in even more interest expense. Increased Treasury issuance can put upward pressure on term premiums as investors demand greater compensation to absorb a larger supply of duration. Higher term premiums raise borrowing costs, which further increase interest expense and deficits, creating a self-reinforcing dynamic.

Obviously, the risk from this dynamic is not immediate, which only makes it worse as generations of politicians can sweep it under the rug (dealing with unsustainable spending and debt is not only unpleasant, it is a career killer for politicians), until it becomes to late to deal with it and the problem explodes. Sure enough, this dynamic emerges only gradually as a larger share of the debt stock is refinanced at higher rates and interest expense consumes an increasing share of federal spending. To illustrate this, BofA simulates debt-to-GDP trajectories under three scenarios for how interest rates respond to higher debt.

Source: BofA

In the low, central, and high scenarios, a 1 percentage point increase in the debt-to- GDP ratio raises interest rates by 1bp, 2bp, and 3bp, respectively. While the effects are modest initially, the trajectories diverge meaningfully over longer horizons as higher debt levels lead to higher borrowing costs, which further accelerate debt accumulation.

The composition of deficits matters

The growing share of deficits attributable to interest costs has important implications for both the economy and financial markets. That's because deficits driven by rising interest expense provide far less support to economic activity than deficits associated with tax relief or government spending, and are far less defensively politically. In addition, they may crowd out both public and private investment by placing sustained upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Over time, they constrain the government's ability to provide fiscal support during economic downturns, potentially slowing the pace of recovery and resulting in a full-blown fiscal crisis.

For markets, the changing composition of deficits matters because it can lead to greater Treasury issuance without a corresponding boost to economic growth. As a result, it may place additional upward pressure on Treasury supply, term premiums, and ultimately the long end of the yield curve.

To see this in practice, look no further than interest rates on the long-end of the Treasury curve... but not just in the US - anywhere else too. 

In conclusion, nobody wins from adding another $50 billion of interest cost to the country (except for America's short-term creditors of course). As Peter Tchir wrote earlier, with interest expense already an issue relative to defense or discretionary spending, a rate hike does not help on that front.

Putting it together, the Academy Securities trader wrote that he finds it "difficult to imagine President Trump liking the idea, even if it helps the longer end of the yield curve, or that stocks have priced it in."

Of course they haven't, but stocks remain hypnotized in an AI-bubble, which ironically is kept afloat only thanks to record debt issuance (now that capex is funded largely from new debt), which will come to a crashing halt once Treasury yields spike and the credit market slams shut once. And as always happens, all of these things will take place all at once triggering the next Fed bailout of, well, everything. 

More in the full BofA note available to pro subscribers

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 06:55

My back-to-work morning reads:

• What Years of Inflation Have Done to American Prices: Life has gotten a lot more expensive over the past few years. Across the economy, the cost of goods and services has soared. Consumer prices overall have risen more than 30 percent since the beginning of 2019. That’s two and a half times as much as they went up from 2012 to 2019.​ Edison Wu charts the damage — raw steak averaged about $6 a pound in 2012 and roughly $13 today. (New York Times)

• The Unrelenting Bond Selloff Puts the 10-Year Yield on the Cusp of 5%: Rising borrowing costs threaten to disrupt the stock market and slow the economy. The 10-year Treasury hits 4.943% — with rising borrowing costs threatening the stock market and the economy alike. (Wall Street Journal) see also How to Protect Your Nest Egg When Inflation Is Ballooning: Oil near $100, inflation above target for five-plus years, and the case for TIPS. When Inflation is a threat. TIPs can help get it under control. (Wall Street Journal)

• How much money is enough? A practical guide to deciding what your money is for, and when you’re allowed to stop moving the goalposts. Hanna Horvath follows up her financial-nihilism essay with its hardest reader question — okay, but what am I actually working toward? (Hanna Horvath)

• The SaaSpocalypse was more like a RenaiSaaS: Overall SaaS revenue growth actually accelerated through the SaaSpocalypse. Ernie Tedeschi on the early-2026 repricing that wiped out perhaps $2 trillion in enterprise software value — and why the episode looks less like an apocalypse in hindsight. (Stripe Economics)

​• Moonshot Capitalism: AI Rewrites the Venture Capital Playbook: Tim Bradshaw on the resurgence of outlandish bets — nuclear fusion, melding humans with machines — as SpaceX-sized returns and falling software valuations push VCs toward capital-intensive dealmaking. (Financial Times)

• We Are Living in the Fantasy World of 13-Year-Old Boys: Many of the tech billionaires who built our world have taken the wrong lessons from their favorite science fiction. Gal Beckerman on the tech billionaires who took the wrong lessons from their favorite science fiction. (The Atlantic) ​

• New York changed in dramatic and surprising ways in the 25 years since 9/11: Some of the most positive changes have come with downsides that are straining the city. Hannah Natanson on the panicked predictions historians made in September 2001 — and how few of them came true. (Washington Post) see also The architect of 9/11 built the world we inhabit today: The changes to our urban design, architecture and everyday life are so profound we can hardly see them. ​Philip Kennicott starts with Emerson’s 1840s prediction about the view from the Capitol’s west terrace — and traces what the attacks did to the American landscape. (Washington Post)

• I interviewed Apple CEO John Ternus on the making of the iPhone Duo — here’s what made him say ‘yes, that’s it’ This is the story behind Apple’s first foldable phone. Mark Spoonauer gets the story of Apple’s first foldable — famously late to the category, as usual.  (Tom’s Guide)

​• Contractor Blames Its Own Repairs, Not Vandals, for Reflecting Pool Failure: Maxine Joselow on the documents showing the Lincoln Memorial pool’s new blue liner peeled because of “human oversight” and two incompatible chemicals — not sabotage. (New York Times)

​• The Fantasy of ‘The Office,’ the Reality of ‘The Paper’: Monica Hesse on the viewers whose answer to “when did you finish watching The Office?” is never — and also all the time. The bingeable workplace comedy was about the glory of the mundane. Its successor is about finding serenity in chaos. (Washington Post)

Video of the day: How Larry Ellison Built His Empire

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Seth Bernstein, CEO of AllianceBernstein and Head of Asset Management of Equitable Holdings, the 69% owner AB. The firm manages $905.5B. Previously, he spent 32 years at JPMorgan Chase, where he eventually became the Global Head of Managed Solutions & Strategy at JPAM, responsible for all discretionary assets for Private Banking clients, and Global Head of Fixed Income & Currency. He eventually became CFO of JPM’s Investment Management & Private Banking division.

 

From 1984 to 2024, the Fed adjusted rates (up or down) within 60 days of an election (43%) as often as in any other 60-day period (45%).

Source: Claudia Sham

 

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Unfair Gains? Let's Talk About A European Windfall Tax

Authored by Mark Nayler via FEE,

After another summer of heatwaves and wildfires, Spain is petitioning the EU to create a climate adaptation fund. In a letter sent to the EU's climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, the Spanish minister for the ecological transition Sara Aagesen Muñoz said that Europe needs a blanket strategy to help its member states cope with climate change, and to mobilize the "resources needed to deliver the necessary investments." The mobilizing strategy favored by Muñoz is a permanent windfall tax on energy companies, many of which have cashed in on higher gas and oil prices resulting from the wars in Ukraine and Iran. She also recommends more mutual debt financing, similar to the (supposedly one-off) Next Generation EU scheme introduced to help member states recover from the pandemic - an unpopular idea that is unlikely to be a feature of the EU's next seven-year budget.

It wouldn't be the first time that the EU has taxed exceptional profits. In 2022, in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Brussels imposed a minimum levy of 33% on fossil fuel companies' surplus profits, defined as being 20% above their annual averages from 2018 (this in itself highlighted one problem with windfall taxes - namely, defining "surplus" profit). So far, however, the EU has resisted reintroducing what Meg O'Neill, the CEO of BP, calls a "highly flawed response to the situation", instead pointing out that individual countries can introduce their own windfall taxes. Last month, Portugal imposed a tax of 33% on oil companies benefiting from the Iran war, saying that it was "both fair and necessary to create a solidarity mechanism."

The fairness of windfall taxes, of course, is one of the most questionable things about them. As the Portuguese finance ministry said when introducing its windfall levy, the elevated profits of oil and gas providers this year have resulted "solely from external market conditions." So why punish them? Advocates of an EU-wide windfall tax base their argument on this fact; but precisely the same circumstance provides a compelling reason to oppose them.

On this view, such taxes penalize oil and gas companies for benefiting from the operation of neutral market forces. These companies are also, of course, susceptible to market downturns - so one might expect to see them compensated by the state in hard times as well as heavily taxed during booms. That they are never compensated in this way suggests that windfall levies aren't really about fairness. One suspects that many of their advocates want to punish energy companies, even when their extraordinary profits have been achieved without subterfuge, corruption, or creative bookkeeping. Proponents of windfall taxes also tend to assume that the resulting money would be better invested by governments than private entities. But as several controversies around the Next Gen EU scheme have reminded us, that is not a given.

Muñoz's letter to the EU's climate ministry comes less than a month after several EU member states put the idea of a EU-wide windfall tax to Ireland, which currently holds the six-month, rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and Austria are requesting that the presidency puts this idea on the agenda at the next meeting of EU finance ministers, due in Dublin on September 18 - 19. Echoing Muñoz's call, they said that the EU needs a "common approach, one that ensures that those who are profiting from the crisis do their part to ease the burden on the general public."

This is another questionable assumption - that an EU-wide tax on energy providers would transubstantiate into lower prices for consumers. But in some countries, it might have the opposite effect: as with Trumpian tariffs, higher operating costs could simply be passed on to customers. Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, has already warned that the company's price caps of €1.99 ($2.30) and €2.25 ($2.60) for petrol and diesel, respectively - introduced in March and so far estimated to have cost the company around €200 million ($233 million) - would be scrapped if the French government imposed a windfall tax on profits connected with the Iran war.

Windfall taxes also create an unstable regulatory environment, which in turn can dramatically reduce share values. In July 2022, when Spain's Socialist prime minister Pedro Sánchez announced a one-off "solidarity" tax on Spain's biggest banks, Spanish-listed banking groups slumped by €5 billion ($5.8 billion; along with fossil fuel companies, banks are the most common target of morally-motivated windfall taxes). This "temporary" tax, which now operates on a sliding scale, has been rolled over until at least next year, highlighting another problem - that windfall levies often stick around well past their stipulated deadlines. The longer they exist, the less attractive the affected companies become to investors.

This was the main reason why ExxonMobil sued the EU over its "solidarity" tax in 2022, a year in which the American energy giant's third quarter profits hit almost $20 billion, the largest it had ever posted and triple those of the previous year ("more money than God," as then-US President Joe Biden put it). Filed through its Dutch and German subsidiaries at Luxembourg's general court, ExxonMobil's complaint stated that Brussels's windfall tax would "undermine investor confidence, discourage investment, and increase reliance on imported energy and fuel products." The case has yet to be resolved - but European courts would surely see many more like it if Spain's recommendations are acted on.

The most devastating criticism of Spain's proposal of a permanent windfall tax to combat climate change, however, is that it would be utterly self-defeating. It will cost an estimated €27 trillion ($31 trillion) for the EU to reach its 2050 climate neutrality goals, with the majority of that capital expected to come from the private sector. According to the European Central Bank: "Public policies should aim to remove structural rigidities, improve regulatory and administrative efficiency and foster green innovation." The EU's recent deregulation drive has those aims in mind; but a windfall tax on energy companies - especially if it remained in place for years, as Muñoz recommends - would have the opposite effect, by restricting the private sector's ability to invest. Oil and gas companies are going to need more money than God to help facilitate the green transition.

In its focus on long-term prevention, rather than short-term reaction, the EU's new wildfire strategy shows the direction in which the bloc should be heading with its climate policies. Punishing companies that have profited from geopolitical turmoil might cater to public anger at their windfalls; but in the long run it won't benefit consumers, nor will it help Europe reach its climate goals. To realize those, the EU needs to work with its biggest energy companies, not against them.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 06:30

Gas Turbine Shortage Sends AI Developers Back To Boilers And Steam

Elon Musk recently warned that “turbines are sold out through 2030,” saying SpaceX and Tesla would probably need to make turbine blades and vanes internally.

ELON MUSK: “Turbines are sold out through 2030. In order to bring enough power online, SpaceX and Tesla will probably have to make the turbine blades and vanes internally. There are only three casting companies in the world that make these, and they’re massively backlogged.” pic.twitter.com/YlKHznBXhK

— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) August 29, 2026

SpaceX is preparing a factory in Bastrop, Texas, to tackle that casting bottleneck, and Musk says bringing production in-house could get gas turbines online up to 18 months sooner.

This is where it becomes important to be specific as to which type of turbines he is referring to…

POWER Magazine reports that data center operators are pairing industrial boilers with steam turbines to bypass the gas turbine backup. Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins stated gas turbines ordered today might not arrive until 2032.

Not all turbines are equal. Gas turbines are designed to handle high temperatures and loads, which require extremely unique alloys and manufacturing techniques. Steam turbines handle relatively lower temperatures and allow for a wide range of alloys to be used.

Don't be fooled by the names, though. Both the gas turbine and the steam turbine are ultimately running on natural gas piped directly to the site.

The gas turbines would take the fuel supplied directly and generate electricity from it. Steam turbines require an intermediate step where the gas supply will be burned on site to boil water, which will be used to spin the turbine for electricity production.

Steam turbines and boilers enjoy an older, more established supply chain capable of ramping production up and down quickly, which is why POWER quotes Rentech Boiler Systems as being able to manufacture and deliver a packaged boiler within a year.

Babcock & Wilcox is already seeing significant interest in the new approach with a $2.4 billion agreement with Base Electron to supply 1.2 GW of generation for Applied Digital's AI campuses. B&W is providing boilers for the on-site power plant with operations anticipated in 2028.

Existing nuclear and new natural gas remain the most prominent answers to the data center power question. As we covered recently, Google is securing nuclear supply in Finland with a 22-year agreement with Fortum.

The ultimate goal of most of the hyperscalers is to eventually find their facilities powered 100% by renewables and/or nuclear energy, with the fossil fuels serving as the bridge in the meantime.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 05:45

Commerce Department Finalizes Steep Duties On Solar Imports From India, Indonesia, Laos

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Commerce Department on Friday finalized steep duty rates on imports of solar cells and panels from India, Indonesia, and Laos, stating that it found that producers in those countries dumped cheap products in the United States and benefited from unfair government subsidies.

Anti-dumping margins were set at 123.04 percent for Indian producers, 94.36 percent for Indonesian producers, and 65.43 percent for producers from Laos.

Countervailing duty rates ran higher. Indian producers were assigned 126.09 percent. Indonesian producers face rates between 73.2 percent and 173.7 percent. Lao producers were given rates between 82.03 percent and 153.67 percent.

The trade case was brought by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade. Members include U.S. manufacturers First Solar, Hanwha Qcells, and Mission Solar Energy.

Friday's final determinations "are an essential step toward enforcing our trade laws and restoring fair competition for U.S. solar manufacturers and the workers they employ," Tim Brightbill, lead attorney for the Alliance, said in a statement.

"We will keep monitoring import data and holding bad actors accountable wherever they move next."

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is scheduled to make a final determination Oct. 14 on whether the imports materially injured or threatened to injure domestic manufacturers. If the commission votes in the affirmative, the Department of Commerce is expected to issue final duty orders in November.

The United States first imposed anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese solar products in 2012. Manufacturers there shifted production to other Asian countries.

In August 2023, the Department of Commerce found that certain Chinese solar producers shipped products through Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam for minor processing to circumvent tariffs that would apply to Chinese imports.

In April 2025, the Department of Commerce announced plans to impose duties of up to 3,521 percent on solar cell imports from those four countries.

The department said companies there were receiving subsidies from the Chinese regime, and that those countervailing duty investigations were among the first in which it made an affirmative finding that companies received transnational subsidies.

The ITC found in May 2025 that the U.S. solar industry was threatened with material injury by the subsidized Southeast Asian imports. New tariffs on products from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam followed in June 2025.

After those four countries were hit, Chinese solar companies expanded across Southeast Asia to places that, at the time, had not drawn comparable U.S. solar trade tariffs, including Laos and Indonesia.

William A. Reinsch, a former Clinton administration trade official and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described the pattern as "a huge cat and mouse game."

Washington has added other measures to the same supply chain. On Aug. 6, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation establishing a price floor and a 15 percent tariff on imports of polysilicon and related products, including wafers, solar cells, and solar modules. The measures take effect Dec. 4.

Minimum import prices in the proclamation are $21 per kilogram for polysilicon, $100 per kilogram for polysilicon ingots and wafers, 22 cents per watt for solar cells, and 38 cents per watt for solar modules.

"We're setting prices so that the Chinese can't dump anymore, and we're setting tariffs to say build it here," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said after the signing.

America's share of global polysilicon production capacity fell to less than 2 percent in 2024 from 50 percent in 2005, according to the proclamation. Global production has grown by more than 270 percent since 2020. Inventories reached a record 400,000 tons by the end of 2024.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 05:00

Turkey Arrests 162 In LGBTQ+ Raids

Turkish police arrested at least 162 people and searched the offices of six LGBTQ+ associations in weekend raids designed to support the country's campaign to protect family values. The Ankara-based LGBTQ+ rights group Kaos GL claimed that beyond arrests, the government had also cut access to dozens of websites and social media accounts belonging to associate groups and rights advocates.

Turkish Justice Minister Akin Gurlek said investigations, prompted by accusations of prostitution and obscenity, were coordinated by prosecutors in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Aydin and Mersin and involved judicial proceedings against 162 suspects, nine associations and 13 businesses across 15 provinces.

"As per the duty to protect families and children given to the state by the constitution, no criminal organization, abuse network or illegal activity which targets children, youths or families will be tolerated!" Gurlek added in a social media post.

Authorities say they seized drugs, digital equipment, smuggled alcohol and a gun in weekend police operations targeting gay bars and night clubs as well as a hammam that was said to be a place of prostitution.

The Istanbul prosecutor's office added that it had found evidence indicating that children and minors were being inappropriately swayed on issues tied to sexual orientation and gender identity.

Rights groups say the government is unfairly targeting the LGBTQ+ community, with Kaos GL saying that it had been accused of making "posts containing obscenities" accessible to children.

The weekend police operation was dubbed "My Family is Safe" by the government and was part of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's "Decade of Family and Population" scheme, which is designed to reverse plummeting birthrates in the aging country.

Authorities say it was intended to make sure that society does not see LGBTQ+ activity as "normal" and that raids were carried out to "protect children, the institution of the family, and our shared moral values."

Although same-sex relations are not illegal in the country, homophobia is rife, with President Erdogan blaming LGBTQ "perverts" for Turkey's rapidly declining birthrates.

That would seem a rhetorical diversion from the actual complexity of reasons for the decline, which Erdogan — who has ruled as the country's authoritarian president since 2014 as well as serving as its influential prime minister for 10 years before that — has called "a disaster."

Though Turkey's statistical agency, TurkStat, tracked a sharp decline in the total fertility rate between 2013 and 2023 (from 2.11 to 1.51), the shift brings birthrates in the country closer to those in other developed nations.

Observers say the real reasons for the drop are more likely of a structural and institutional nature rather than one chalked up to lifestyle.

Turkey's chronically worsening financial crisis, inflation, skyrocketing housing prices, family unfriendly workplace environments, limited access to affordable childcare, and higher educational and employment rates for women are all considered reasons for Turks to postpone having children, as well as for having fewer when they finally do.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 04:15

The UN Arms Embargo On Sudan Is Broken. America Has A Plan To Fix It

Authored by Hussain Abdul-Hussain via RealClearWorld,

The U.S. is rightly pushing the UN Security Council to expand the Sudan arms embargo before it expires this Saturday. Outlined by Ambassador Mike Waltz and Senior Advisor Massad Boulos, the proposal would expand restrictions nationwide to cover all territory and warring factions. A comprehensive countrywide ban eliminates regional geographic loopholes used by illicit traffickers and provides the legal teeth necessary to choke off foreign weapons, especially drones, fueling Sudan's devastating civil war, now in its fourth year.

To pass the resolution, America needs nine affirmative votes from the Council's 15 members. Alongside permanent members France and the UK, Washington's draft enjoys the support of Denmark, Greece, and Latvia. Panama and Bahrain could raise supporters to eight, one short of a majority.

Conversely, opponents include Somalia and Pakistan, two allies of Turkey and Saudi Arabia whose governments plan to continue arming the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Two other African Council members, Liberia and Congo, are leaning "no," joined likely by Colombia. Together with the permanent members Russia and China, the total no votes add up to seven, enough to block the resolution without forcing a Russian or Chinese veto.

Opponents of the full embargo argue that the SAF is the legitimate "state institutions" and should be allowed to arm itself while starving its rivals. This position aligns with SAF's chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who believes he can eliminate the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

However, America correctly argues that the war in Sudan is a stalemate. Neither faction is strong or well-resourced enough to overcome its rivals, prevail, and govern the enormous Sudanese territory, an area larger than Texas, California, Montana, and New York combined.

Sudan is the third-largest nation in Africa, and its population of 53 million comprises over 500 distinct groups speaking more than 400 languages. While Arabic-speaking Sunni Muslims form the largest heritage group, they are fragmented into distinct regional and tribal confederations.

Historically, the Arab Riverine tribes - the Ja'alin, Shaigya, and Danagla - dominated Khartoum politically and economically, forming the backbone of Omar al-Bashir's former regime and the mainstay of the SAF today. In contrast, the nomadic Baggara Arab tribes from Kordofan and Darfur serve as the demographic base for the RSF. Meanwhile, non-Arab, indigenous African communities include the pastoralist Beja of the Red Sea hills, the Nuba of the central mountains, and the sedentary Fur, who gave the Darfur region its name.

Since gaining independence in 1956, Sudan has been ruled by military autocrats and the Muslim Brotherhood. By the 1990s, severe droughts and desertification pushed nomadic Arab herders south into lands traditionally owned by sedentary, non-Arab African farmers.

In 2003, non-Arab Sudanese launched a rebellion. Khartoum organized Arab militias - the Janjaweed, predecessor of the RSF - to engage in widespread atrocities alongside SAF. These brutal, raid-based tribal tactics are being repeated in the current civil war.

Since independence, Sudan has experienced only four brief stints of democracy. The last began in 2019, when labor unions toppled the Islamist Bashir regime and began rebuilding a democracy underwritten by SAF's Burhan and RSF's Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).

By 2021, the two generals deemed the civilian government redundant and dissolved it to rule jointly. However, former regime elements of the Muslim Brotherhood engineered a comeback by driving a wedge between the two men, convincing Burhan he could become the country's undisputed ruler. Civil war erupted in April 2023. Burhan claimed the mantle of the legitimate government and declared the RSF an illegal militia. The RSF fought back, and the war continues to rage.

The U.S. State Department has already accused both sides of committing war crimes and has imposed targeted sanctions.

The Quad - comprising America, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE - drafted a plan to end the war, requiring both generals to step down and restore civilian rule. Burhan, however, rejected the settlement, insisting the war will only end with the SAF's total military victory.

As the conflict unfolded, the Quad clung to its toothless plan while the UN Security Council unanimously renewed an arms embargo every September that failed to stop foreign powers from supplying various factions. Now, America is coming to the UN with a plan that has teeth: a blanket arms embargo on all armed Sudanese factions.

The ongoing civil war has completely upended the alliances of Sudan's past conflicts. The SAF alliance is heavily dominated by Arab and Muslim Brotherhood factions, earning it the backing of Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Conversely, the RSF positions itself as anti-Islamist, receiving sponsorship from predominantly Christian and non-Arab Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, alongside Chad and the UAE.

Treating all warring factions inside Sudan as equal aggressors and starving them of weapons is the best course of action.

A total embargo will lower the tempo of death and destruction, shut down the backdoor war economy, and might finally convince all parties that a military victory is impossible, leaving a negotiated political settlement as the only way forward.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 03:30

Is Britain Abandoning Military Defense To Fund More Socialism?

It's a curious position for European governments; for the past few years they have been rattling their sabers over the Russian war in Ukraine, calling for boots on the ground.  It's the kind of intervention that would automatically trigger WWIII.  Yet, these same governments are completely unprepared in terms of military spending, armament and training.  

When the British government refused to join the US blockade against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, almost no one cared because the British have allowed their navy to decay into irrelevance.  Twenty years ago, they had nearly 50 active fighting vessels and today they are down to 22 vessels.  Britain's GDP per capita is currently lower than the state of Alabama.  And, they keep importing thousands upon thousands of third world migrants, with the vast majority relying on taxpayer funded subsidies. 

When given a choice between funding the British military or funding more immigrants, the government has chosen to fund more immigrants.  Britain has increased welfare spending by 16% in the past 5 years alone.    

A year ago the Brits, under pressure from the Trump Administration, took steps to expand their defense budget in order to better meet an increase in NATO obligations.  Multiple European countries have been avoiding these obligations for a long time, instead relying on the US to foot the bill while they enjoyed extra cash to spend on subsidized programs.  However, the British increase in their defense budget doesn't mean much if the military is not actually allowed to spend any money.

The British Army has been ordered to pause most “non-essential” collective training (large live-fire drills, tank/Apache exercises, etc.) for UK-based units that are on standby (only 4% of British units are actually deployed).  The immediate reason is a shortage of cash in the Ministry of Defence’s day-to-day resource budget (RDEL). Fuel and ammunition prices have risen faster than planned, meaning routine training budgets drawn up years earlier no longer cover the same activity.

Their defense budget expansion is not even keeping up with inflation.   Leftists in the UK, of course, blame Trump.  But inflation in Europe hit well before Trump returned to office and the lack of accountability on the part of British progressives is not going to save them from the fallout.

Military officials warned two years ago that British training standards were outdated by a decade.  In June of this year, Defense Secretary John Healey quit after government refusals to provide adequate funding for training.  

Healey is now the Chancellor, and he's due to present a budget in October that still has yet to find roughly £1.4 billion a year for the next three years to fund a plan stays within the government’s fiscal rules. The military is required to create a budget without diverting money from health or education programs. The training pause is a short-term cash-management measure - Longer-term funding questions remain unresolved.

An easy way to stockpile significant funding for British defense would be to stop all immigration and remigrate millions of third world residents who are feeding on government welfare.  But this is something the current leadership will never do.  Multiculturalism is their priority, for reasons that remain a mystery. 

On the bright side, less funding and less capability for Europe's armies means a lesser chance that they will be shipped off to Ukraine to start a world war.     

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 02:45

Foreigners Responsible For 87% Of Thefts, 61% Of Sexual Violence On Paris Public Transport

Via Remix News,

Foreigners account for a massive share of thefts, sexual violence, and robberies on Paris public transport in 2025, according to new government data.

According to compilations from the SSMSI data files, foreigners accounted in 2025 for 87 percent of simple thefts on Île-de-France public transport, 60 percent of robberies, and 38 percent of physical assault.

In addition, foreigners account for 61 percent of sexual violence cases on Paris public transport and its surrounding regions.

National figures for foreigners committing crimes on public transport are lower but still high, approximately 76 percent of simple-theft suspects are foreigners and 71 percent of all theft suspects are foreigners.

Some groups are highly overrepresented among foreigners.

Maghrebi nationals, for instance, account for about 40 percent of theft suspects in transport nationwide, while making up roughly 2 percent of the national population, according to data analyst Marc Vanguard.

? Des chiffres CHOC sur l'insécurité viennent de sortir.

? Dans les transports en commun, les étrangers représentent 87% des mis en cause pour vols simples en Île-de-France, et 76% sur la France entière.

Tous les chiffres dans ce fil ??? pic.twitter.com/WK38I3FlKL

— Marc Vanguard (@marc_vanguard) September 10, 2026

INSEE's latest estimate puts foreigners at 9.1 percent of France's population in 2025, or around 6.3 million people. Their share is higher in Île-de-France, especially in the multicultural Seine-Saint-Denis department, but the crime for foreigners is still disproportionately high. In total, police and gendarmerie recorded 104,880 victims of theft, violence, or payment fraud in public transport nationwide in 2025, down 2 percent from 2024 and 22 percent from 2016 - the lowest level in a decade, including the pandemic years.

???? A Brazilian tourist was subjected to a vicious sexual assault on a French train on Wednesday morning, and only escaped being raped thanks to the intervention of a brave woman who filmed the assailant to scare him off.

Jhordana, 26, had been visiting her brother in Paris.... pic.twitter.com/pxOTu4fZXf

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 19, 2025

Theft without violence still accounts for 77 percent of those victims. Thefts and payment frauds fell but recorded physical and sexual violence rose slightly, jumping 3 percent. Drug-use and trafficking suspects in transport rose another 5 percent after the sharp Olympic-year jump in 2024.

It should be noted that among the "French" perpetrators, their potential migration background is not recorded. There are approximately 10 million people in France with a foreign background, including second-generation citizens with a migration background. As a result, a French citizen who is an ethnic Algerian, for instance, would be recorded as a French perpetrator in all crime statistics. France does not keep data on the race of crime suspects, as required by national law.

More broadly speaking, there are estimates that foreigners and French citizens with a migration background account for two out of three crimes in France.

??? This public awareness campaign in France shows a White man as the harasser on a bus.

French interior ministry stats from recent years have shown that 69% of violent crimes, including sexual assaults and harassment, on public transport in the greater Paris region were... pic.twitter.com/H3fRwEWtK2

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) July 3, 2025

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 02:00

"Human Extinction By 2030"... Remember That Major AI Psy-Op We Talked About?

Authored by Kit Knightly via OffGuardian,

I've been documenting the increasingly hysterical coverage of 'rogue AI' for the last six weeks, predicting a major psy-op or false flag.

Well, kids it looks like the psy-op part is here. So far no false flag...but with the greatest level of hysteria since the early days of Covid circulating, maybe they won't need to DO anything.

Maybe insane claims about a phantom threat will be enough.

Oh yes, did you know Artificial Intelligence has a "10% chance of wiping out humanity before the end of the decade"?

That's the headline on every single mainstream paper, the trending topic on every social media platform, the talking point on every news channel.

Yes, from the producers of long-running hit show "CLIMATE CHANGE WILL KILL US ALL!" and the international sensation "COVID WILL KILL US ALL!" comes the latest experience in fear everyone is talking about.

And this latest wave is already being used to push new "regulation", which should alarm anyone.

It all started with a young man, apparently named Jacob Coxon, who is allegedly a former AI researcher for OpenAI and later Anthropic.

Yesterday he announced his resignation from the latter, citing ethical concerns about the danger of "unregulated" artificial intelligence.

And, as is usually the case when an obscure person resigns from his job for supposed ethical concerns, his resignation was the subject of an exclusive article in the Wall Street Journal,

Oh and a simultaneously published thread on Twitter/X - from what is allegedly Coxon's own account that had - so far as can be seen - never been used before.

AMAZINGLY, within hours Coxon's alarming claims had gone "viral".

Now some old cynics out there will be thinking at this stage "hmmm correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't this look suspiciously like a narrative roll-out"?

But I'm sure the terminally gullible will hasten to reassure you that this is the way real life definitely works.

It's just a coincidence that everyone across the entirety of the political punditry spectrum is engaged in amplifying one single message.

In another of those startling synchronicities which we don't need to think about too much, at exactly the same time that Coxon was hitting the mainstream headlines, Joe Rogan - king of the mainstream alternative media - had another AI researcher on his show, spouting his own dire warnings.

AI experts have been crawling out of the woodwork, all keen to endorse Coxon's position - or even call it an underestimate.

You must have seen Geoffrey "the godfather of AI" Hinton on the BBC, telling Victoria Derbyshire he agreed with Coxon's risk assessment:

"You just said that 10% doesn't seem an unreasonable estimate that AI could kill all humans" "Yes" "Wow... oh my God."@vicderbyshire speaks to Nobel Prize Winner and so-called 'Godfather of AI' Geoffrey Hinton about predictions by an Anthropic researcher that there's a more... pic.twitter.com/sGYQI57REF

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) September 9, 2026

A 10% chance of killing every single person on Earth in the next three and a half years.

No, really.

They're less clear how exactly that's going to happen - but that's not the important part. The important part is we need to DO something.

Everyone from Matt Walsh to Glenn Greenwald agrees on that.

And what do we need to DO?

Why, REGULATE of course. That's what Coxon said in one of his MANY media interviews in the last twenty-four hours (and as someone who has been aware of Coxon's existence since some time yesterday I can tell you I trust him absolutely):

The guy who helped train the models left Anthropic and said AI is more dangerous than a nuclear weapon. Jacob Coxon spent 3 years at OpenAI and Anthropic. He says the labs think this could kill everyone by the end of the decade and they are still racing each other. His answer...

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 10, 2026

He floats an AI non-proliferation treaty "like we have for nuclear weapons" - as if it's a wildly coincidental brand new idea, and not a paraphrase of the same talking point dozens of people - including Bill Gates - have been suggesting for months.

But what would a global AI treaty actually look like? And what would it achieve? And who will be in control of implementing it?

Well, for a potential taste here's what US Congressman Bill Foster tweeted:

A "hardened" internet? Is that what we can expect?

No more "untraceable access" to AI facilities? Restrictions on "anonymous payments"? What exactly does that mean?

Perhaps "proof of humanity" or "proof of personhood" should be required to use the internet? Or maybe the internet should have "borders"?

Then there's the kill switches of course, both the US and UK are close to implementing those:

We need to pass the AI Kill Switch Act NOW. https://t.co/bZYEb8GWIR

— Rep. Ted Lieu (@RepTedLieu) September 10, 2026

Last week, coincidentally, a group of Lords from the UK's upper house was calling for "kill switches", not just for AI programs, but for data centres in general [emphasis added]:

A group of peers is calling for the British government to be able to deactivate powerful AI systems and switch off the country's data centres in the event of the tech posing a threat to national security

And who will have control of these kill switches and other control mechanisms? You? Or the usual suspects?

Of course if you've already allowed yourself to be manipulated into believing data centers are the Spawn of Satan, you'll probably think a kill switch is a great idea - and happily overlook that it's just putting yet more control into the hands of institutions that already brought you the 'covid' scam and 9/11.

If any such people are reading this - does it occur to you yet that THIS was always the end point of those panic memes you hoovered up so uncritically?

Be careful what you wish for.

In this looming world of "regulated" AI, governments could be empowered to shut down access to sites, networks or even the internet as a whole in the event of alleged "rogue AIs" becoming a "threat to national security".

And if YOU or your output or you interactions get labelled as potential AI, or you have your access restricted purely based on your location or IP address?

Well, good luck telling anyone as you scream inside your soundproof bubble.

This can go further - and we'd be fools to just assume it won't.

In the name of preventing the spread of "rogue AI" (or "rouge AI" according to half the hysterics on social media), the internet can have information bulkheads which can be used to quarantine sections, nations, networks or individual sites "infected" with digital these digital "invasive species".

You may have to prove your humanity with face scans or similar, and there may be strict limitations on what regions and/or databases you can reach, how much of your money you can spend without additional checks, etc.

Even the restricted internet of today might look like freedom compared to the' post-AI-Regulation' revised world wide web.

And today's security state might be something to look back on with nostalgia when the 'post-AI-Regulation' revised worldwide surveillance and supply line controls kick in.

But don't think about any of that - that nice guy Jacob you never heard of a week ago is warning you.

Listen to him on the mainstream media platform they gave him.

Demand your government saves you.

I'm sure this time it really will.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/13/2026 - 23:30

Truckers Hauled Hundreds Of Kilos Of Cartel Cocaine On US-Canada Freight Lanes

By Phil Brink of FreightWaves.com,

Federal prosecutors charged a California restaurant operator after agents seized more than 40 pounds of methamphetamine. Investigators found the drugs inside his residence and Hyundai Sonata, according to a federal affidavit. Searches also uncovered three firearms, a digital scale and $11,800 in cash. The operation grew from a wider organized crime investigation involving long-haul truck drivers.

A federal grand jury indicted Kawal Preet Singh, 50, on Sept. 3. The indictment contains five counts, including two methamphetamine distribution charges from May 12 and July 13. Two additional counts accuse Singh of possession with intent to distribute on Aug. 18. Each drug count involves at least 500 grams of methamphetamine. A fifth count alleges he possessed an Accu-Tek handgun to further a trafficking offense. Singh operated a Round Table Pizza restaurant in Dinuba, California. Authorities claim he distributed wholesale quantities from that business while armed with illegal firearms.

Trucking network moved cocaine across borders

The FBI’s Fresno Resident Agency opened its organized crime investigation during February 2025. Intelligence connected suspected participants with drug trafficking, extortion, human trafficking and cargo theft. Agents received information about a Fresno-area narcotics trafficker called “Camy” during May 2026. An informant described Camy as a Sikh Indian man involved in long-haul trucking.

The source claimed Camy worked with other Sikh Indian drivers who transported narcotics. Investigators later developed evidence concerning hundreds of kilograms of cocaine entering from Mexico. The affidavit attributes those shipments to an unspecified Mexican cartel. Some loads reportedly continued through the United States before reaching Canada.

Court records identify Singh as a subject within that broader inquiry. However, the affidavit never explicitly identifies Singh as Camy. It also does not accuse him of personally hauling cocaine aboard commercial vehicles. Authorities disclosed no carriers, drivers, USDOT numbers, routes or border crossings.

Searches uncover methamphetamine and firearms

A federal magistrate authorized searches involving Singh, his home and restaurant on Aug. 13. Agents watched him drive from his residence to the Dinuba business five days later. They approached after he unlocked the entrance and entered alone. Investigators then executed warrants at both locations around 11 a.m.

Agents seized Singh’s iPhone before interviewing him inside the restaurant. The affidavit states he acknowledged storing methamphetamine for a friend “because of friendship.” He also claimed he had not sold that drug for approximately two months. Investigators later found a photograph showing a white crystalline substance on his device.

The residence contained approximately 13.8 kilograms of suspected methamphetamine, court records show. His Hyundai held another 4.9 kilograms that produced a positive presumptive result. Combined weight reached approximately 18.7 kilograms, or more than 41 pounds. Agents found similarly packaged substances across the searched locations.

Investigators recovered two concealed handguns from the restaurant, including one unserialized weapon. The residence contained an Accu-Tek semiautomatic pistol, digital scale and $11,800 in assorted denominations. Authorities found cash plus that firearm hidden inside clothing within a closet near three methamphetamine bags. An HSI agent called those circumstances consistent with bulk narcotics distribution. Prosecutors also seek forfeiture of proceeds, facilitating property, firearms and ammunition following any conviction.

Major questions remain unanswered

The government has not identified Camy or explained Singh’s possible connection with that person. Officials also withheld the suspected cartel’s name, participating carrier details and shipment routes. Court filings do not disclose whether agents searched or seized any commercial trucks. Records provide no identified cargo theft victims, trafficking survivors or related charges.

Singh faces at least 10 years and potentially life imprisonment following any drug conviction. The firearm count carries another consecutive term between five years and life. A judge released him under home detention, location monitoring and other conditions on Aug. 24. Federal law presumes Singh innocent unless prosecutors prove every charge beyond a reasonable doubt. Following a FreightWaves inquiry, the U.S. Attorney’s Office provided the complaint and indictment. Those records did not answer questions about Camy, participating carriers or Singh’s connection to the trucking network. Singh’s attorney had not responded before publication. This story will be updated if additional responses arrive.

Why it matters

Criminal organizations can exploit legitimate trucking activity to move drugs, stolen cargo and trafficking victims across borders. Freight professionals need accurate information about how authorities identify networks operating within commercial transportation.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/13/2026 - 19:30

Shareholder Ownership Gives Way To Corporate Control

Authored by Iain O'Brien via RealClearMarkets,

Today's business ownership landscape is increasingly complicated by financial, voting, contractual and capital arrangements. A direct relationship between ownership and control can no longer be assumed, particularly for strategically important companies.

Sika, a Swiss chemicals company, entered a four-year corporate battle in 2014, when building-material firm Saint-Gobain announced it would buy a controlling majority. Although the Burkard family owned 16% of shares, a dual-class structure granted them over 52% of voting rights. Sika showed why economic ownership does not necessarily equal voting power.

A relevant example took place between American firms Endeavor Group Holdings, now WME Group, and Silver Lake, in 2024. Endeavor agreed to be taken private by Silver Lake, which already controlled over 70% of Endeavor's voting rights. Silver Lake could therefore approve the merger, effectively controlling the company's future before owning it. Mubadala, Goldman Sachs and other investors also took part, making a true "owner" difficult to define.

The stakes change when a company is deeply involved in a country's industrial capacity. Energy infrastructure, semiconductors, and critical-mineral producers introduce geopolitical considerations.

Korea Zinc, among the world's most prominent refined zinc producers, has seen a dispute with Young Poong putting the history of the two firms and their controlling families in the spotlight. Korea Zinc emerged from a partnership between the Choi and Jang families, who control Korea Zinc and Young Poong respectively. The Choi family has maintained management control despite Young Poong being the largest shareholder, with a stake of 33-37%. In 2024, Young Poong partnered with South Korean MBK Partners, launching a tender offer resulting in joint ownership of over 46% of voting shares.

The transaction created several layers of control. Young Poong agreed to a cooperation agreement to jointly exercise voting rights with MBK Partners. While Young Poong continued to hold shares, MBK acquired a stronger role in deciding how they would be used. On a newly formed board at Korea Zinc, directors nominated by MBK would later outnumber those selected by Young Poong, essentially determining the board's composition. A call option on Young Poong's Korea Zinc shares was also granted to MBK Partners. The option has drawn controversy because Young Poong is alleged to have granted MBK highly favorable terms at below market costs, exposing it to significant financial losses.

MBK's business ties highlight how assigning a single national identity to a modern company may prove difficult. China's sovereign wealth fund represents roughly 5% of one of MBK Partners' investment funds. Such ties raised concerns among Korea Zinc management that their firm would eventually come under Chinese control. Concerns about Chinese influence have also been highlighted in relation to Project Crucible, a joint Korea Zinc led venture, which Young Poong and MBK Partners initially opposed because it placed too much control in the hands of the US government, posing a national security risk to Korea. More recently, however, Young Poong and MBK Partners have changed their approach, taking a more supportive public position towards the project. This included hosting a promotional reception in Tennessee during which they sought to give the impression of ownership over the project.

Separate questions have also been raised about Young Poong's environmental, financial and managerial issues related to a smelting plant project. These concerns gained renewed attention following Korean police's decision to reopen an investigation into alleged environmental law violations by Young Poong Counsel Hyung-jin Jang.

The cases above illustrate why regulators and investors need to look beyond the registry of shareholders. In Sika's case, a minority stake could carry majority voting power, while Endeavor controlled votes before owning a majority of economic interests. In Korea Zinc's case, the battle involves shareholder alliances, control rights and internationally sourced capital with vast potential geopolitical implications.

Traditional concepts of ownership no longer capture where control in companies resides. This matters for governments screening transactions with economic sovereignty, national security and competitiveness in mind. The era of the shareholder may be giving way to an era where control matters more than ownership.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/13/2026 - 18:30

Johnson Says $5,000 Trump Payments Require Congress To Act

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said on Sunday that President Trump's plan to send $5,000 dividend checks to American adults if Republicans keep both the House and Senate would require an act of Congress. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) speaks during the second day of the 2026 Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas on Sept. 10, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

"I would assume, yes, he'd need Congress to act, and that’s a creative idea," Johnson told CNN in a "State of the Union" interview.

Tapper: Where would the money come from for Trump's $5,000 checks?

Speaker Johnson: "It's a new, creative idea…We applaud the president for thinking outside the box." pic.twitter.com/bCXZ3w8izp

— Bulwark Clips (@BulwarkClips) September 13, 2026

"We have to figure all that out. But I think what he was articulating … is that he’s saying that, if you want more money in your pocket, you have to keep Republicans in charge," Johnson continued. 

Then in a separate interview with NBC's "Meet the Press," Johnson said when asked whether payments would be sent, that he would "commit that Congress will work through it and find consensus on that, like they have to do everything else," adding that "it takes some time." 

"I never go out and give big commitments on the front end because I’ve got to work through it, and that’s what we do every single day," he added. 

Johnson also told CNN that “pro-growth policies” backed by the Trump administration have led to tax cuts.

“They also have in additional take-home pay an average of $8,000 per filer. By the way, 97 percent of tax filers got a tax cut this year. We cut taxes on tips and overtime, Social Security, all those things,” he said.

Several Republicans publicly embraced the idea of sending the checks, including Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who wrote on X last week that he would prepare legislation for the payments. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) also said that “it was the first I heard of it last night” but called it good economic policy, according to the Epoch Times. 

During a speech Wednesday night at the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, Trump proposed sending every adult American citizen a $5,000 "Trump dividend" if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November.

"If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them," Trump said, "I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000."

NEW: President Trump makes a major promise at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas: $5,000 for every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans win both the House and Senate in the midterms.

“I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for… pic.twitter.com/XqiphY7y8a

— Fox News (@FoxNews) September 10, 2026

Trump told the audience at the American Airlines Center: "Your vote will decide whether our country stumbles at the starting gate of our next 250 years or surges forward and never looks back."

A $5,000 payout to 270 million adults would cost the US government approximately $1.35 trillion. The proposal comes as US public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in recent weeks.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/13/2026 - 18:00