The post Are The Biden and Trump Economies the Same? appeared first on CEPR.

'Radical' Biden Judge Reverses RFK Jr. On Trans-Child Surgeries, Other Procedures

A federal judge deemed 'too radical' by GOP lawmakers during his confirmation hearings said on Thursday that he will grant a motion by blue states to vacate (reverse) a declaration by HHS Director Robert F. Kennedy Jr. blocking breast removal and other procedures for youths with gender dysphoria. 

Oregon US District Judge Mustafa Kasubhai, who was appointed by Biden in late 2024 and only confirmed after Senate Democrats invoked cloture on his nomination by a 51-43 vote, said during a hearing that he would soon issue a formal written opinion and an order denying the government's bid to dismiss the states' case, and granting the states' motion for summary judgement, according to court records. 

Kennedy issued a declaration in late 2025 that "ex-rejecting procedures for children and adolescents are neither safe nor effective as a treatment modality for gender dysphoria, gender incongruence, or other related disorders in minors, and therefore, fail to meet professional recognized standards of health care."

This was based on a report by the Department of Health and Human Services which looked at procedures and treatments available for gender dysphoria, and concluded that many of them risk infertility. The Trump administration said that health care providers who perform breast removal and other procedures would be out of compliance with updated standards, while officials also moved to bar hospitals that participate in Medicare or Medicaid from performing the procedures on children. 

New York and 18 other states immediately sued, claiming that the new rules were illegal, and "amounts to an end-run around the free choice of provider statute because it effectively bars Medicaid beneficiaries from choosing providers that are otherwise qualified, simply because they furnish gender-affirming care to children or adolescents," the states said in their motion for summary judgement. 

New York Attorney General Letitia James, one of the plaintiffs, said the forthcoming ruling siding with the states showed Kennedy “cannot unilaterally change medical standards by posting a document online, and no one should lose access to medically necessary health care because their federal government tried to interfere in decisions that belong in doctors’ offices.” -Epoch Times

At least 17 hospitals or health centers have been referred for possible punitive action for violating the HHS declaration, they said. 

Government lawyers argued in a brief that the declaration reflected Kennedy's "non-binding policy position on the safety and efficacy of certain pediatric and adolescent treatment modalities," and that the HHS report was one of many pieces of information officials considered in their decision. 

The admin also asked the court to dismiss the case over a lack of jurisdiction. 

* * * Top selling supplements (in stock)

Brain Rescue (on sale!)

Iodine Fortify (are you deficient?)

Resveratrol (potent antioxidant for healthy aging)

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 11:40

'Radical' Biden Judge Reverses RFK Jr. On Trans-Child Surgeries, Other Procedures

A federal judge deemed 'too radical' by GOP lawmakers during his confirmation hearings said on Thursday that he will grant a motion by blue states to vacate (reverse) a declaration by HHS Director Robert F. Kennedy Jr. blocking breast removal and other procedures for youths with gender dysphoria. 

Oregon US District Judge Mustafa Kasubhai, who was appointed by Biden in late 2024 and only confirmed after Senate Democrats invoked cloture on his nomination by a 51-43 vote, said during a hearing that he would soon issue a formal written opinion and an order denying the government's bid to dismiss the states' case, and granting the states' motion for summary judgement, according to court records. 

Kennedy issued a declaration in late 2025 that "ex-rejecting procedures for children and adolescents are neither safe nor effective as a treatment modality for gender dysphoria, gender incongruence, or other related disorders in minors, and therefore, fail to meet professional recognized standards of health care."

This was based on a report by the Department of Health and Human Services which looked at procedures and treatments available for gender dysphoria, and concluded that many of them risk infertility. The Trump administration said that health care providers who perform breast removal and other procedures would be out of compliance with updated standards, while officials also moved to bar hospitals that participate in Medicare or Medicaid from performing the procedures on children. 

New York and 18 other states immediately sued, claiming that the new rules were illegal, and "amounts to an end-run around the free choice of provider statute because it effectively bars Medicaid beneficiaries from choosing providers that are otherwise qualified, simply because they furnish gender-affirming care to children or adolescents," the states said in their motion for summary judgement. 

New York Attorney General Letitia James, one of the plaintiffs, said the forthcoming ruling siding with the states showed Kennedy “cannot unilaterally change medical standards by posting a document online, and no one should lose access to medically necessary health care because their federal government tried to interfere in decisions that belong in doctors’ offices.” -Epoch Times

At least 17 hospitals or health centers have been referred for possible punitive action for violating the HHS declaration, they said. 

Government lawyers argued in a brief that the declaration reflected Kennedy's "non-binding policy position on the safety and efficacy of certain pediatric and adolescent treatment modalities," and that the HHS report was one of many pieces of information officials considered in their decision. 

The admin also asked the court to dismiss the case over a lack of jurisdiction. 

* * * Top selling supplements (in stock)

Brain Rescue (on sale!)

Iodine Fortify (are you deficient?)

Resveratrol (potent antioxidant for healthy aging)

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 11:40

JPMorgan Activates BTC & ETH As Institutional Collateral

Via Sentora Research,

JPMorgan has officially bridged the gap between "Digital Gold" and "Wholesale Credit." 

The activation of direct BTC and ETH collateralization allows institutional giants to finally turn their dormant holdings into immediate USD liquidity without selling a single satoshi.

Operating through the Kinexys (formerly Onyx) digital financing platform, the bank now allows institutional clients like hedge funds and corporate treasuries to pledge BTC and ETH for USD-denominated liquidity.

Unlike previous years where only ETF-wrapped products were supported, this move enables borrowers to leverage their direct on-chain holdings without triggering the capital gains taxes associated with liquidation.

The quantitative framework for these loans is defined by a rigorous risk-weighted haircut model.

Under the current policy, JPMorgan applies a 30% to 50% haircut on BTC and ETH, effectively setting the maximum Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio at 50% to 70% depending on 90-day volatility metrics.

This structure is designed to buffer against the "cascade risk" inherent in crypto markets, where a 15% intraday drop could otherwise trigger systemic liquidations. By treating BTC and ETH as Tier-1 collateral, JPMorgan is effectively putting them on the same playing field as high-quality corporate bonds.

• Tri-Party Custody: Assets are not held on the bank’s balance sheet but are secured via qualified third-party custodians like Coinbase Custody and Anchorage Digital. This ensures that the bank facilitates the credit while the assets remain in high-security, audit-ready vaults.

• Atomic Settlement: By utilizing the Kinexys blockchain, JPMorgan has reduced the time to move collateral from T+2 days to under 120 seconds. This allows for real-time margin adjustments and prevents the "lag" that often causes over-collateralization in traditional banking.

• Tax-Efficiency: Because the institution is borrowing against the asset rather than selling it, they avoid triggering capital gains taxes. This makes crypto-backed credit the most tax-efficient way for "whales" to access their wealth.

The chart clearly shows that BTC collateralized borrowing rates are consistently trending below US high-yield corporate bond yields, even though BTC remains a more volatile asset.

Source: DeFiLlama

While there are occasional spikes during periods of market stress, reflecting short-term liquidity demand and volatility shocks, the overall cost of borrowing against BTC remains structurally lower. This suggests that the market is increasingly valuing BTC’s deep liquidity and global trading nature over its volatility, allowing it to function as efficient collateral. JPMorgan’s activation reinforces the trend by enabling institutions to unlock USD liquidity against BTC and ETH at lower rates, improving capital efficiency while accepting manageable volatility driven fluctuations.

The broader implication for DeFi is the emergence of a hybrid credit market. By recognizing BTC and ETH as “pristine collateral” alongside gold and Treasuries, JPMorgan is effectively lowering the cost of capital across the system.

This brings in significant liquidity, but it also concentrates risk, since these structures rely on a small set of regulated custodians to hold assets.

More broadly, this marks a shift in how balance sheets are used. Assets are no longer just held for exposure, they are actively used to generate liquidity and improve capital efficiency.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 11:25

Bond Markets Are Beginning To Panic Over Inflation

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Look To America

US equity indices closed lower yesterday but were comparative outperformers against European and Asian counterparts, which were roundly brutalized. The relative performance of equity markets reflects what is happening in oil markets, where the law of one price is being strained by a complete dearth of oil in Asia, a shortage of oil in Europe, and relative abundance in North America. The spread between West Texas crude and the more international Brent crude is now at its widest level since the Covid demand shock of 2020.

The oil market has fragmented: Oil is now trading for $150/bbl in Asia (except the occasional sanctioned Iranian tanker) where demand destruction has started. China and India most pressured.

Meanwhile it is still $100 in the US https://t.co/QweAyzEN0a pic.twitter.com/YyvgAMdMwl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2026

At the risk of stating the obvious, the oil market is experiencing unprecedented tightness; the Brent prompt spread is current 4.55 sigma from the long-run mean. Dramatic as this is, it probably understates the severity of the situation in Asian markets where the loss of Gulf cargoes is being felt most acutely. The Wall Street Journal is today reporting warnings from Saudi Arabia that oil prices could spike as high as $180/bbl if disruptions persist into late April, and Reuters reported yesterday that Australia – a net energy exporter, but not of oil – is buying record volumes of products from ExxonMobil, BP and Vitol shipped from the United States.

Usually, Australia buys most of its oil products from Asian countries - especially Singapore. There’s a neat historical parallel here because 75 years ago Australian PM Curtin announced that “Australia looks to America” after the fall of Singapore to the Japanese. This time Australia is looking to America after the fall of the Singapore refining industry and confirmation overnight that the US will not be imposing export bans on oil. This will suit Donald Trump’s trade agenda and his efforts to corral tremulous allies just fine.

Speaking of which, it seems we are once again seeing signs that US allies may soon be doing things that only days ago they were indicating they would not do. Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan have issued a joint statement condemning Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure and the de factor closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while also saying that they are ready to “contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait”.

It’s not immediately clear what this means. Presumably this is not declaring an intention to surrender and acquiesce to Iranian demands to pay a toll on commercial transits, so the most plausible interpretation seems to be that we are witnessing the formation of an international coalition backing American efforts re-open the Strait to shipping. This as news also emerged yesterday that a second US amphibious assault group is now headed to the Middle East, the Pentagon has asked Congress for $200m to fund the war, and as Benjamin Netanyahu said that “there has to be a ground component” to ensure the fall of the Islamic regime.

This all sounds like escalation, and bond markets are beginning to fret over the outlook for inflation as predictions over the duration and severity of the supply shock slide further towards the severe end. The Australian 10-year yield rose to its highest level since 2011 but the largest moves are happening at the short end of the curve where the two year yield is now up to 4.69%. Overnight index swaps currently imply a further 70bps worth of policy rate tightening in Australia this year, on top of the 50bps already delivered in February and March. UK 10-year gilt yields rose 11bps yesterday to 4.84% and 2-year gilt yields lifted by an astonishing 30bps.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both left policy rates unchanged yesterday, but were clearly hawkish in tone. The BoE said that it was “ready to act” if inflation pressures intensify, while also pointing out that existing slack in the economy means that the starting point for this energy shock is different to 2022. The ECB dropped references to being “in a good place” and reiterated its determination to ensure that inflation stabilises at 2% over the medium term, while making stagflationary updates to its economic projections. RaboResearch has now incorporated a rate hike as early as April in our BoE forecast, and a hike in April with the potential for a summer follow-up for the ECB.

In a meeting with Japanese PM Takaichi at the White House yesterday Donald Trump said that Japan had offered “tremendous support” in the war and reportedly indicated that he would be singing Japan’s praises when he meets with Xi Jinping in Beijing later this month. This is likely to be interpreted as a bolstering of the US-Japan partnership, coming as it does in the context of recent tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan.

Indeed, the China subtext behind recent U.S. policy actions is clear to anyone paying attention. Yesterday, the co‑founder of Supermicro and two other employees were indicted in New York for allegedly violating U.S. export controls by smuggling NVIDIA chip servers into China. On the same day, Trump and Takaichi announced a joint action plan on critical minerals aimed at reducing China’s dominance in global supply chains.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the United States may “un‑sanction” Iranian oil currently on the water that would have otherwise been destined for China, arguing that Beijing has been effectively funding a leading state sponsor of terrorism by purchasing discounted Iranian crude. According to Bessent, removing sanctions would lift Iranian oil prices to market levels and redirect flows away from China and toward other Asian countries who have been “good actors”. That’s as Netanyahu says that oil pipelines from the Arabian Peninsula to Israeli ports should be built in the future to prevent the world from being held hostage by a Hormuz blockade ever again. Needless to say, such a move would be an enormous re-alignment in favour of Washington and its allies. 

So, while markets understandably continue to trade based on the day’s headlines, the bigger picture is that the global order is shifting under our feet and ultimately determining the price action. Oil is scarce, alliances are hardening, and central banks are preparing for a world where supply shocks might be structural rather than temporary. Hard power is being used alongside economic statecraft to achieve strategic aims. As our Global Strategist Michael Every is fond of asking: “if lines on a map can move, how much more can lines on a Bloomberg screen move?”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 10:40

IEA Chief Warns Gulf Flows May Take Six Months To Restore After Biggest-Ever Energy Shock

The head of the International Energy Agency told the Financial Times on Friday that the world is severely underestimating the scale of the Gulf energy shock, and that it may take at least six months to restore disrupted oil and gas flows.

Fatih Birol described the conflict, now in its third week, as "the greatest global energy security threat in history", and said it would take time "to have oil and gas rehabilitated".

"It will be six months for some [sites] to be operational, others much longer," Birol warned.

Attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East continued this week, with Israel unleashing a firestorm by striking Iran's South Pars gas facility, which led Iranian forces to launch attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities that may take three to five years to return to full capacity.

Both attacks signaled that upstream energy assets were no longer off-limits, though Israel has since promised not to hit any more Iranian energy assets.

Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven said his oil team's near-term view remains as follows:

1) oil prices will likely continue to trend higher while Hormuz flows very remain low,

2) Brent is likely to exceed its 2008 all time high if depressed flows keep the market focused on the risk of lengthier disruptions, and

3) any rise in market perceived risks of US export restrictions is likely to widen the Brent-WTI price gap further. (denied today... for now)

5 of the 7 Largest Historical Oil Supply Shocks in the Past 50 Years Were Persistent

In a separate note, Goldman analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby estimates that total crude production shut-ins (primarily due to precautionary curtailments and storage management) have reached 9.2 mb/d.

Strait of Hormuz tanker crossings by the end of the week show muted activity.

Commodity chaos has already arrived:

• JPMorgan's New Hormuz Closure Math: Just 3 Days Until Commodity Chaos

• The Most Important Number For The Market: "25 Days"

• Iran's Attack On Qatar's LNG Plant Is Bad; The Math Behind The Global LNG Fleet Is Far Worse

• Brent Likely To Exceed 2008 All-Time-High, Goldman Sees 'Higher Oil Prices For Longer'

The hardest-hit regions from the energy shock are in Asia at the moment because of their heavy reliance on imported Gulf energy. Let's not forget that diesel prices in the US have jumped above $5/gallon.

"The countries that are exposed to that supply disruption are not so much in Europe, or in the Americas, they're actually really in the Asia region," Michael Williamson of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, told AP News.

And now we have three oil markets: Asia (Oman oil at $167), Brent ($113) and US (WTI $97) https://t.co/uHmMD24E9G pic.twitter.com/41a4BhKOIA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 19, 2026

Asia should prepare for "cascading impacts into all economic activities," according to Ramnath Iyer of the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Is it only a matter of time before the energy shock in Asia spreads to the region's financial markets? There are already signs of credit market cracks (read here).

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 10:20

California Moves To Rename Cesar Chavez Day Before March 31 Holiday

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

California state lawmakers took steps on March 19 to remove Cesar Chavez’s name from a state holiday this year and replace it with “Farmworkers Day” after accusations against the civil rights icon of sexual assault involving children and women surfaced the day before.

The state became the latest to take action to change or cancel plans to celebrate Chavez as fallout over the accusations continued.

Cesar Chavez Day has been celebrated each year on March 31 in California, where Chavez first founded the National Farm Workers Association in 1962, which later became the United Farm Workers of America (UFW).

California was the first state to designate the labor leader’s birthday a legal holiday, celebrating Cesar Chavez Day as an official state-paid holiday in 2000, after former Gov. Gray Davis signed related legislation into law.

State Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, son of a farmworker, introduced the name change in the state Capitol.

“As someone who grew up in the farmworker movement … I am shocked,” Rivas said. “The fact that many of these women were children when they were abused makes this even more heartbreaking.”

The New York Times published an article on March 18 stating that Chavez allegedly sexually abused and groomed minors as young as 13 who worked in the labor movement.

Labor leader and UFW co-founder Dolores Huerta came forward with her own allegations later in the day, claiming she secretly gave birth to two of Chavez’s children and gave them up after suffering sexual abuse.

Rivas said Huerta worked alongside his father to secure the first labor contract at Almaden Vineyards in the 1960s, and he respected her resilience.

“But let me be clear about something: The farmworker movement was never about one man,” Rivas said. “It was built by thousands—tens of thousands—of workers ... Their legacy is not defined by one individual. It is defined by a movement—a movement for dignity, a movement for justice, a movement that still lives on today.

“And now we have a responsibility not just to remember that movement, but to carry it forward with integrity,” Rivas said.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom echoed Rivas’s sentiments about the name change.

“The farmworkers’ movement was always bigger than just one man or one person,” Newsom posted on X.

“Given the horrendous allegations that were made public for the first time yesterday, this is a welcomed change.”

Seven states have recognized a day on or near Chavez’s birthday as an official state holiday, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Texas, Utah, and Washington state.

President Barack Obama also signed a national proclamation designating March 31 as Cesar Chavez Day, but the federal day isn’t a paid holiday.

Texas canceled the holiday this year, hours after the allegations were made public.

Gov. Greg Abbott announced he would work with state lawmakers to permanently remove the holiday from state law this year.

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has decided to decline to recognize March 31 as Cesar Chavez Day this year, according to her spokeswoman. The state recognizes the day but has not made it an official state holiday.

In Colorado, city leaders in Denver announced they would begin renaming and removing property, and would rename the city’s official holiday honoring Chavez.

The annual March 31 march will be renamed “Si Se Puede Day,” which is a Spanish term meaning “Yes, it can be done.” The term was coined by Huerta and popularized by Chavez in the 1970s and became a rallying cry for worker empowerment. The city passed legislation in 2001 making the day an official holiday and paid day off for city workers to replace Christopher Columbus Day.

National unions have also acted, withdrawing from celebrating Chavez this year.

The AFL-CIO said the allegations came as a shock and condemned the alleged actions.

The unions decided not to participate or endorse any activities for Cesar Chavez Day this year.

The UFW Foundation also announced it had canceled all Cesar Chavez Day activities.

In Washington, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said he was preparing a letter to ask the secretary of War to remove the name of Cesar Chavez from the USNS Cesar Chavez.

The vessel was launched on May 5, 2012, and named in honor of Chavez, who served in the Navy from 1946 to 1948.

Last year, Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.) and 22 other Democratic congressional members sent a letter to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth asking him to retain Chavez’s name on the ship when the secretary decided to “take politics out of ship naming.”

They said renaming the vessel would dishonor his legacy. Hegseth retained the vessel’s name.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 10:00

"Our Employees & Guests Were Uncomfortable": Arkansas Gov. Sanders Told To Leave Restaurant

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Republican Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders was kicked out of another restaurant this week. Years ago, I wrote about how Sanders, then the Trump White House spokesperson, was told to leave the Red Hen restaurant in Lexington, Virginia. Now, the Croissanterie Restaurant in Little Rock, Arkansas, has told the governor to leave because employees said they felt uncomfortable having her in the restaurant. One person yelled at her and flipped her off as she left with her friends and security.

Sanders went to the restaurant with three other moms for a quick meal. She recounted how she and the other moms were then told to leave:

“Last week I was having lunch with two other moms at a restaurant when the owner approached a member of the State Police Executive Protection Detail and said my presence made their employees feel threatened and told us to leave.”

She added: 

“Arkansans are known for their warm hospitality, and while that restaurant certainly doesn’t meet that standard, my administration will continue to focus on lifting Arkansans up, not tearing others down with discrimination and hate.”

Sanders had already started to eat when the restaurant’s owner approached a member of the security detail and requested that the governor leave.

The Croissanterie released a lengthy statement and admitted that they told the governor and her party to leave. While offering a hand-ringing explanation about being “surprised and uncertain how best to respond,” it admitted that it “ultimately made the decision” to “support our employees and guests who expressed they were uncomfortable.”

It added, “We regret being placed in this position and having to make a difficult decision. However, we stand by our choice to support our employees and guests.”

The restaurant is founded and owned by Jill McDonald, executive chef, and Wendy Schay, pastry chef.

We have seen various restaurants refusing to serve Trump supporters,  conservatives, and even those deemed allies. Democratic members of Congress have defended such actions and even encouraged liberals to disrupt meals of conservatives.

Liberals went to social media to celebrate the move by the restaurant. One posting from an employee declared:

“Good Morning! Sarah Huckabee Sanders no amount of evil you send our way can ever take our smiles away!!! I’m proud af to work here! I’m proud af to be gay and I’m proud af to be an Arkansan. My voice matters. Try again.”

There have been virtually no condemnations from leading Democrats, who either fear or support such mob actions.

In my book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” and my new book, Rage and the Republic, I discuss what I called this “age of rage.”

Rage is a curious emotion. It is the ultimate release. It allows you to do things and say things that you would not otherwise do or say. That is why it is addictive and contagious. What people will not admit is that they like it. It allows them to hate completely; to dispense with notions of decency or civility.

This restaurant yielded to hate and intolerance to appease not only its employees but the radical left.

This action occurs the same week as a poll showing that a majority of Americans now view those with opposing views as “morally bad.”

The rage addiction is obvious in these postings, as shown most recently by James Carville.

Democratic leaders believe that they can fuel this rage addiction and lead the mob to victory in the midterm elections. The cost is also to fuel the product of rage, including political violence.

The most recent targeting of Sanders presents a moral choice for the left. If you rationalize this action or continue to patronize restaurants like the Croissanterie Restaurant, you have made a choice. You have embraced the intolerance and hatred sweeping over this nation.

For all of their superficial expressions of reluctance, Jill McDonald and Wendy Schay chose hate over tolerance. While claiming to be “uncertain how best to respond,” the answer was obvious for anyone with a sense of decency: you serve everyone regardless of your political differences. Food like music allows people to come together; share common experiences and environments.

I truly believe that this age of rage will end as prior such ages ended. Eventually, the rage burns off and people recognize that their hatred had twisted them into grotesque figures. To reach that point, however, we must learn to again speak to each other and tolerate those who disagree with us. To put it simply, we have to break bread with one another and consider what we have in common.

Jill McDonald and Wendy Schay appear to want to cater to the rage and make their food exclusively available to those with whom they and their employees agree politically. We will have to see if that is a winning business strategy, but most of us have little appetite for their type of culinary-based hate.

* * * Top selling supplements (in stock)

Brain Rescue (on sale!)

Iodine Fortify (are you deficient?)

Resveratrol (potent antioxidant for healthy aging)

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 09:25

Futures Slide Ahead Of Massive $5.7 Trillion OpEx As Iran War Shows No Signs Of Easing

Futures are weaker heading into the weekend after US equities finished lower yesterday despite Netanyahu headlines leading to a late day bounceback into EOD. Geopolitical headlines remain the focus overnight with Brent rising as much as 90bps before reversing, as Iran pressed ahead with hitting energy assets & headlines that the US is considering plans to occupy Iran’s Kharg Island to press for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% after finishing on Thursday under its 200-day moving average which could trigger even more forced selling; Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.6%. US stocks are on course for a fourth week of losses, the longest losing streak in a year.  Brent crude oil prices reversed earlier gains to decline 0.7% to around $108. The VIX rose to around 25.  Elsewhere, it was a relatively quiet overnight with upward pressure on yields still the focus (USGG10YR +4bps @ 4.29%) amid concerns about hawkish central bank reaction functions. Metals are mostly lower: Aluminum -4.4%, Silver -1.0%. The US Dollar is up 0.2% as markets price in less than 5bp of Fed rate cuts this year, down from 60bp last month. There is no macro on today's calendar. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -0.6%, Tesla -0.4%, Nvidia -0.5%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%, Apple -0.4%)

• FedEx (FDX) climbs 7% after raising its full-year profit forecast, signaling that the courier’s plan to restructure its delivery network is gaining traction despite geopolitical conflict and economic volatility.
• Figs Inc. (FIGS) rises 6% after Oppenheimer upgraded the seller of medical scrubs to outperform, saying a sustained recovery is underway.
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) gains 7% after the spacecraft maker reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Planet Labs (PL) gains 14% after the satellite imaging firm reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM) rises 6% after the drugmaker said it received expanded indication approval from the FDA for its drug Imcivree (setmelanotide) to treat patients four years and older with acquired hypothalamic obesity.
• Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) tumbles 26% after the US charged a co-founder with illegally diverting billions of dollars in Nvidia Corp.-powered servers to China.
• York Space Systems (YSS) rises 9% after the space and defense company gave revenue guidance in its first report as a public company that JPMorgan called “solid.” The firm also saw revenue grow and its losses narrow in the fourth quarter.

In other corporate news, at least a dozen large drugmakers are set to roll out copies of Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster weight-loss drugs in India, crashing prices as soon as the patent expires Friday. JPMorgan started a monitoring program to guard against overwork by its junior investment bankers, according to the Financial Times. Alibaba and Tencent lost $66 billion of market value in 24 hours after failing to lay out clear visions for how to profit off AI. Meanwhile, investors overwhelmed by Iran news are turning to AI tools - mining history for insights and context to assist work-flows and time management. 

“Investors are stuck in geopolitical pinball right now,” said Max Gokhman, deputy CIO at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, as “literally and figuratively explosive developments are bouncing global market sentiment.” Confidence is being tested, and different schools of thought on the length of conflict are emerging.

An ugly, rollercoaster week is set to end with the Iran war - about to enter its third week - showing no signs of easing as Tehran keeps up attacks on Arab states in the Persian Gulf even after Israel signaled it would spare the country’s energy infrastructure. Axios reported the US is considering plans to take over Iran’s key oil-export site Kharg Island to add pressure on Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard insists it’s still building missiles and vowed the war will continue. Oil is headed for another weekly surge. 

“I think that the market is right now coming to grips with the reality that higher energy prices are going to persist longer than expected,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial. “It is clear that the Iran regime turned to the last page in its playbook: MAD, mutually assured destruction.”

Meanwhile, traders braced for a historic amount of March options expiry. Roughly $5.7 trillion in notional options tied to individual US stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds are set to expire on Friday in the quarterly event that traders have dubbed the “triple-witching”, the largest March expiry in 30 years and one the 4th largest ever. That includes $4.1 trillion in index contracts, $772 billion in exchange-traded funds and $875 billion in single-stock options. The event has a reputation for triggering abrupt price swings as large pools of derivatives exposure suddenly vanish. It also tends to reset dealer gamma sharply lower, unleashing an "unclenching" that lead to higher volatility in subsequent days. The scale of this week’s expiration is also notable relative to the broader market. At 8.4% of Russell 3000 Index market capitalization, it’s well above historical norms, amplifying the potential for positioning-driven flows.

Trading activity in options markets has surged in recent weeks, particularly in index and ETF contracts, both of which hit record notional volumes in March, about 9% above their year-to-date averages, according to Citi's Vishal Vivek. In contrast, single-stock options volumes are roughly 3% below the level, a move partly attributed to waning retail participation and worries around geopolitical risks.

Stocks including Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., PDD Holdings Inc. and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. are among those seen as vulnerable to outsized moves during the session as they have large open interest in options that expire near the current prices, according to Citi.

“Given recent volatility, today could almost be described as unchanged but clearly the bias has been lower,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “I think the true test of today will be what investors decide to do at the close, before the weekend.”

Crude oil prices continued to be traders’ main concern as it affects inflation and consumer sentiment. The latest oil future curves showed “markets are beginning to price a more persistent ‘higher for longer’ oil backdrop,” Barclays strategists including Emmanuel Cau said in a note. “This dynamic is reinforcing stagflation concerns.”

On Wednesday, Jerome Powell said the Fed will not lower interest rates until inflation cools, as it was too early to determine the impact of rising oil prices on the US economy. The central bank left rates steady for a second straight meeting.   

“We think the Fed staying on hold remains the most appropriate positioning,” said Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer for global liquidity markets at Federated Hermes. “The current conflict with Iran is nowhere near the magnitude of the disruptions seen during COVID, nor the 2008 global financial crisis, so there is no justification for cutting rates by hundreds of basis points.”

Stocks have unwound earlier gains too, with the Stoxx 600 now flat. The construction sector outperforms while energy stocks lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: 

• CD Projekt’s share gain as much as 8.1%, the most since June, after it indicated it may release new gaming content to meet net income targets.
• Spire Healthcare shares jump as much as 11% after Sky News reported buyout firm Bridgepoint is drawing up proposals for a formal offer worth £1b for the UK operator of private hospitals.
• Elmos shares climb as much as 11% after Reuters reported the chip-equipment company is exploring a sale.
• Zabka shares rise as much as 2.7% after the convenience store chain said it saw a rebound in sales since mid-February.
• Inwit shares slide for a second day, as much as 9.7%, after the Italian tower company said Telecom Italia and Swisscom’s joint initiative to co-develop mobile towers will weigh on its growth.
• J D Wetherspoon shares drop as much as 11%, the most in a year, after the pub chain warned rising costs and pressure on consumer finances “may result in profits that are slightly below current market expectations” this year.
• Smiths Group shares fall as much as 5.5% to their lowest since July, after the UK manufacturing equipment group reported a somewhat light outlook.
• Fuchs shares fall as much as 4.7% to the lowest since November 2022 after the German manufacturer of automotive and industrial lubricants forecast profits for the year that missed the average analyst estimate.

Earlier, Asian stocks dropped as tech companies like Alibaba Group Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor retreated. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index swung between gains and losses before breaking lower as the session wore on, dropping as much as 0.6%. Markets in Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were closed for a holiday.  Tech giants Alibaba and Tencent lost $66 billion of market value in roughly 24 hours, after the market punished the twin leaders of China’s tech arena for failing to lay out clear visions for how to profit off artificial intelligence.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is rising though mixed against major currencies, with the yen lagging.

• USD/JPY rose 0.7% to 158.68, trimming weekly drop to 0.7%; Japanese markets were closed for a holiday on Friday. Tensions between the US and Japan over the Iran war remained evident as Trump hosted Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, even as he said Tokyo was answering his call for support in the effort
• EUR/USD slipped 0.3% to 1.1555; European government bonds edged lower as money markets continued to price in a high chance of three rate hikes through 2026. During a summit in Brussels on Thursday, EU leaders expressed anxiety at the economic situation and called for a “moratorium” on strikes against energy facilities
• GBP/USD fell 0.2% to ~$1.34, while gilts extended Thursday’s drop triggered by a hawkish Bank of England stance; traders are betting on three hikes this year

In rates, yields rising across the curve in the US and Europe are being led by the short-end, with the UK underperforming for a second day, as bond markets extend their selloff as an initial paring in central bank rate hike bets in Europe reverses, as Brent crude edges toward new multiyear high close and Iran struck Arab states in the Persian Gulf.  With US long-end yields only about 3bp higher, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads resume flattening, by 2bp and 3bp respectively. US 10-year is 4.5bp higher near 4.3% vs 9bp for UK counterpart, which reached 4.95%, highest level since 2008. A deeper selloff is gripping UK bonds as traders price in BOE rate hikes, while US short-term rate markets no longer see any chance of a Fed rate cut before next year. Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 4bp of tightening for the April policy meeting; ECB swaps price in almost three 25bp rate hikes this year, while BOE swaps price in a combined 85bp of tightening by the December policy meeting.

In commodities, Brent crude futures have pared a gain of 2.4% to less than 0.2%, while US benchmark WTI crude is up 0.3%.  Brent declined from its highest closing level since July 2022 to trade around $108 per barrel after Israel’s Prime Minister said the nation will no longer target energy infrastructure, and added that the war will end a lot faster than people think. Gold is fluctuating and now back below $4,700/oz. The precious metal is headed for the biggest weekly loss in six years, as war in the Middle East boosted energy and reduced expectations for rate cuts

There is no US economic data releases are scheduled, and Fed’s Bowman (8am) and Waller (8:30am) are slated to speak

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.29%
• VIX +0.5 points at 24.55
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1207.36
• euro -0.2% at $1.1567
• WTI crude little changed at $96.2/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The U.S. and its allies have intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending low-flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast Iranian naval vessels and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran’s deadly drones, American military officials said. WSJ
• Oil prices’ climb saw no letup as Iran pressed ahead with hitting energy assets. The country’s Revolutionary Guard insisted it is still building missiles and vowed the war will continue. Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery shut down some units after a drone attack caused a fire. BBG
• Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn’t end soon—and they don’t like what they are seeing. The base case, several oil officials in the Gulf’s biggest producer said, is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April. WSJ
• China is throttling exports of jet fuel, diesel and fertilisers, adding to fears in some of Asia’s biggest resource, manufacturing and agricultural nations that supplies could run short because of the war in the Middle East. FT
• Wall Street braced for $5.7 trillion in options set to expire in today’s triple-witching, which risks injecting yet more volatility into a market that’s seen weeks of turbulence. BBG
• In dollar terms, China’s GDP as a share of the global economy, peaked in 2021 at around 18.5%, when it grew to be around three quarters of the size of the U.S. economy. Many economists predicted China’s explosive growth would eventually make its economy bigger than that of the U.S. Instead China’s share of the pie has decreased, ending 2025 at around 16.5% of the global economy. It is now less than two-thirds the size of the U.S. economy, according to International Monetary Fund data. WSJ
• Australia’s 10-year bond yields rose to an almost 15-year high as mounting inflation concerns drove traders to ramp up bets on RBA rate hikes. BBG
• The ECB will need to consider hiking rates as soon as next month if price pressures build further due to the Iran war, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. Traders fully priced three rate hikes this year. BBG
• Trump is dialing back his mass deportation push, shifting focus toward targeting criminals on political and voter concerns. WSJ
• The Trump administration has delayed an executive order that could have required banks to collect and report more information on the immigration status of their customers, after Wall Street push-back: WaPo 
• US President Trump said at dinner with Japanese PM Takaichi that the US is encouraged to see Japan buying US defence equipment.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued but with downside limited as the region reacted to the recent oil swings, deluge of central bank meetings and mixed geopolitical headlines, while conditions were thinned - with the absence of Japanese participants due to the Vernal Equinox holiday. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the materials and commodity-related sectors, but with losses cushioned by strength in telecoms and defensives, while there were few fresh drivers overnight. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were following disappointing earnings results from the likes of Alibaba and CK Hutchison, with the former posting a 67% drop in Q3 net, which also weighed on other tech names. Furthermore, the PBoC's reiteration to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy and to use RRR and MLF to ensure sufficient stability did little to inspire, while China's Loan Prime Rate were unsurprisingly kept unchanged for the 10th consecutive month.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Commerce Ministry releases measures to boost travel services, CCTV reported; announces measures to expand inbound consumption.
• China's government is said to be urged to reform consumption tax in order to boost local income, according to China's Securities Journal.

European bourses kicked off cash trade on the front foot, rebounding from Thursday's losses. The IBEX 35 is currently bouncing the most, closely followed by the DAX 40. The FTSE 100 lags, weighed on by losses in oil majors and Smiths Group, as the Co. cuts its 2026 organic revenue growth to between 3-4% from 4-6%. Futures however dipped following reports the Trump Administration is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios citing sources. Sectors point to a cyclical bias, with Construction and Materials and Banks sitting at the top of the pile. Energy and Media are the only sectors in the red.

Top European News

• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (Feb) 14.3B vs. Exp. 8.5B (Prev. -30.4B).
• German PPI MoM (Feb) M/M -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.6%, Low. -0.1%, High. 0.7%).
• German PPI YoY (Feb) Y/Y -3.3% vs. Exp. -2.7% (Prev. -3%, Low. -3.1%, High. -2.1%).

FX

• DXY initial traded in a narrow range for most of the European morning before edging higher alongside crude following reports the Trump Administration is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported citing sources. The index edged higher to a 99.60 peak from a 99.25 low, still a way off yesterday’s 100.23 peak.
• EUR/USD mildly pulled back overnight but trades relatively steady in a narrow range during the European morning. There have been several ECB speakers on the wires this morning, with Nagel suggesting that the ECB would need to hike in April if the price outlook sours, and will act with necessary resolve. The broad message by speakers suggested a meeting-by-meeting approach, echoing President Lagarde from her post-policy press conference. Pressure seen in recent trade on the aforementioned USD strength.
• GBP/USD trickled lower overnight after strengthening in the aftermath of the BoE decision. GBP clambered off its worst levels briefly at the start of the European session but is now trading at session lows as energy prices grind higher. Pressure seen in recent trade on the aforementioned USD strength.
• USD/JPY partially rebounds after slumping briefly below the 158.00 handle, while the mild recovery was facilitated by improved risk appetite, but with further momentum contained amid the absence of Japanese participants. JPY pressure was seen in recent trade on the aforementioned USD strength.
• Antipodeans initially tilted higher on a positive risk mood but has turned lower since as tone begins to sour, with added pressure following the Axios report on the Kharg islands.

FX

• ECB's Nagel said the ECB would need a hike in April if the price outlook sours, will act with necessary resolve.
• ECB's Makhlouf says the ECB is currently managing extreme uncertainty, adds that action will be taken if facts point to action. Every meeting is a live meeting.
• ECB's Rehn said no decision has been locked in ahead of time.
• ECB's Villeroy said rate hikes will be decided meeting by meeting and are totally determined to bring inflation back to 2%.
• ECB's Villeroy said ECB will remain vigilant and has the ability to act as needed.
• ECB's Muller said duration of high energy prices is key for ECB.
• ECB's Kazak said we know that inflation will go up and economy will slow, and will take stock in April.
• European Council appoints ECB's Vujcic as the central bank's Vice President to replace de Guindos as of June 1st.
• Barclays now forecasts ECB will raise rates by 25bps each in April and June vs. previous hold outlook.
• JP Morgan now expects ECB to hike interest rates in April and July, versus a previous forecast of holding rates unchanged throughout the year.
• Goldman Sachs now expects BoE to remain on hold throughout 2026 vs. prior forecast of quarterly cuts from July.

Fixed Income

• UST futures were initially on a firmer footing but are down some 3 ticks, largely moving in tandem with oil prices, with pressure seen across fixed income following reports that the Trump Administration is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier gains were limited after the recent choppy performance and curve flattening on hawkish central bank expectations in response to the Iran war.
• Bund futures trade lower amid the recent rise in crude prices. Upside has been contained following hawkish ECB reports yesterday, which noted officials see the need for possible rate hike talk to start in April, while ECB’s Nagel stated earlier the ECB would need to hike in April if the price outlook sours.
• Gilts underperform, with price action has been driven by the rebound in energy prices following the aforementioned Axios report, while markets are now fully pricing in 3 rate hikes by the BoE in 2026. As a reminder, the Bank kept rates unchanged with all 9 policymakers voting for a hold.
• China MOF sold 3-year bonds at 1.29% yield and 10-year bonds at 1.80% yield.

Trade/Tariffs

• Chinese media, SCMP, writes that the White Houses' Section 301 investigations may be less dramatic than war, but they risk retaliation and trade breakdowns.
• White House posted Fact Sheet on US-Japan alliance and stated it welcomes a second tranche of Japanese investments and that US and Japan reached a critical minerals action plan.

Commodities

• Crude futures initially traded with modest losses as the European session got underway but has steadily reversed higher following an Axios report stating that the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI regains the USD 96/bbl handle following the report, while Brent extends beyond USD 110/bbl. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent late in Thursday’s session stated that the US could pursue another SPR release to keep prices down and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil but that has since been put in the rear view.
• Spot gold stabilises after its recent slide, although remaining on course for its worst weekly loss in six years following a deluge of hawkish-leaning central bank updates amid inflationary pressures driven by the war-related surge in oil prices. Spot gold resides in a USD 4,634-4,736/oz range.
• Copper futures have followed on from Thursday’s selloff as the dollar gains following the rebound in energy prices.
• SinoChem (600500 CH) reportedly cut throughput at its 300k BPD Quanzhou refinery to ~60%, sources say; also reduces operations at steam cracker to ~60%; seeking prompt delivery crude oil, including Russian oil under waver, to cover the supply gap.
• Russia is to limit major foreign container shipping companies from routes involving Russian ports unless they meet strict domestic control requirements.
• Spain is to reduce VAT on fuel from 21% to 10% to mitigate the impact of the Iran war, Ser Radio reported.
• Saudi officials see the base case for oil to rise to USD 180/bbl if the disruptions persist until late April, according to WSJ.
• EU member states to request EU Commission design national temporary and targeted measures to mitigate impacts on energy costs, according to a draft document.
• South32 (S32 AT) pauses production at the world's biggest manganese mine due to cyclone threat.

Geopolitics

• The Trump Administration is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports citing sources.
• Iran announces the death of IRGC spokesperson Narini.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said officials must compensate for the loss of the Iranian Minister of Security, Al Hadath reported.
• Iranian President said "the flames of war against us will affect many if the international community does not stand up to the aggression", Al Jazeera reported.
• Iran's Foreign Minister told his UK counterpart that providing military bases for the US will be considered as participation in aggression.
• Iran's IRGC spokesman, responding to Israeli PM, insists Tehran is still building missiles, AP reported.
• Iran's Revolutionary Guards report that missile manufacturing remains active amid conflict and stockpiles are sufficient.
• Iran is said to allow more Indian vessels to pass the Strait of Hormuz.
• IDF launches a wave of strikes on infrastructure targets across Iran.
• Explosion heard in Iranian city of Isfahan, according to Iran International.
• Saudi Arabia's eastern region saw further drone interceptions, with several threats destroyed.
• EU leaders call for de-escalation, civilian protection and full respect of international law by all parties, while they call for moratorium on strikes targeting energy and water infrastructure, also strongly condemned Iran's indiscriminate strikes.
• German Chancellor Merz said EU leaders have asked the European Commission to examine other possible ways of paying out loans to Ukraine.

US Event Calendar

• 8:00 am: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Fox Business
• 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Waller Speaks on CNBC

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today will be the 15th trading day of the conflict so far and as I showed in yesterday's CoTD (link here), that is on average when we bottom out in US equities after a geopolitical shock. However it would be hard to trade on the back of averages at the moment with so much uncertainty so headlines will be more important than history here but if you're looking for optimism the normal geopolitical playbook would at least give you hope. So far we haven't deviated from it.

The news flow hasn't slowed down though, and there's been so much going on over the last 24 hours, even more over the last 36, that it's hard to know where to start. The main saving grace after another challenging session was that the price of Brent was well off the $119.13/barrel highs (+10.9% at that point) we reached around 9:30am London time yesterday, a couple hours after European gas futures opened up nearly +35%. They eventually closed +1.18% higher at $108.65/bbl and +13.15% at €61.85/MWh respectively, in turn their highest levels since July 2022 and January 2023.  As I type this morning, Brent is at $107.31/bbl, coming off the highs as Israel and the US signaled a desire to avoid further strikes against energy infrastructure that had stoked the market turmoil late on Wednesday and early yesterday. That helped the S&P 500 (-0.27%) recover most of its initial losses, even as the STOXX 600 (-2.39%) earlier posted its worst close of 2026 so far.

Elsewhere, markets also had plenty of other events to react to, with the ECB, BoE, and other central banks across Europe holding policy rates steady in reaction to the ongoing conflict. However, some hawkish interpretations of those on hold decisions, especially that of the BoE, coupled with the energy concerns led to a big global bond sell-off at the front-end. This was most pronounced in Europe, with 2yr gilt yields registering their largest rise (+31bps) since 2022, with about half coming after the BoE meeting. 2yr bund yields rose by +14.5bps to 2.59%, their highest since July 2024. And in the US, 2yr Treasury yields spiked by as much as 15bps though they largely reversed this rise by the close (+1.6bps to 3.79%).  At this point, the Fed is the only G10 central bank that is still (albeit very marginally) pricing easing later this year and at one point yesterday, markets no longer priced in cuts for the next few quarters for the first time in the Fed’s post-2024 easing cycle.

Before we delve into yesterday’s central bank decisions, the most recent developments on the Middle East has been an easing of fears that Wednesday's energy infrastructure attacks would spiral into something worse. That comes as Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said yesterday evening that Israel would no longer target Iran’s energy infrastructure, with Donald Trump also saying that he had told Netanyahu not to attack Iran’s energy fields. Earlier yesterday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that Iran would show “ZERO restraint if our infrastructure are struck again”, while mentioning the phrase “requested de-escalation”. All that left a sense that we could see a truce when it comes to strikes against energy facilities, even as there’s still little visibility on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the overall war. Indeed, with the Pentagon reportedly asking the White House for a $200bn funding request to Congress, it may be readying for a more protracted conflict.

Some of the peak energy stress earlier yesterday had come as Qatar’s energy officials said that Iran’s attack damaged 2 out of its 14 LNG trains, which represent ~17% of Qatar’s LNG exports and that the damage will take “between three to five years to repair”. While this is likely to lead to lingering stress in the gas market, the easing of the oil market stress through the course of yesterday has brought Brent back to $107.31/bbl this morning. And WTI is down to $94.16/bbl, with the relatively more protected energy position of the US becoming more visible in market pricing.

The S&P 500 erased most of its -1% opening decline but still closed -0.27% lower. However, S&P 500 futures trading are edging +0.10% higher this morning, with those on the STOXX 50 up by a larger +0.64% after yesterday’s slump. Meanwhile, the combination of moderating geopolitical fears and relatively lower US yields saw the dollar index (-0.85%) post its worst day since August yesterday, while gold (-3.50% to $4,650/oz) fell to its lowest level in two months amid the global repricing in front-end rates.

Turning to those central bank meetings, the ECB left their deposit rate on hold at 2%, with President Lagarde exuding calmness in the press conference as she argued that the bank is “well positioned and well equipped” to deal with the energy shock. Lagarde’s comments suggested that the ECB would rather wait for evidence on second-round effects before deciding on any policy change. However, her comment that “we are starting from a good base” pointed to risks now being tilted towards hikes and she did not rule out more imminent action. Our European economists now expect 50bps of risk management hikes to 2.50% in the coming months, penciling June and September as the most likely timing. See their full reaction here. Following the meeting, Bloomberg reported that the ECB would be ready to raise rates as early as April if the Iran war pushed inflation too far above target, though a later hike could be more likely. With this backdrop, market pricing of an April hike rose from 36% to 63% on the day, with about 66bps of ECB hikes priced by year-end.

But it was the BoE that delivered the clearest hawkish surprise versus expectations, even as it held the Bank Rate steady at 3.75%. For the first time since September 2021 the decision was a 9-0 vote, confounding expectations that a couple members would still favour a cut. And the MPC stated that it would “stand ready to act” to contain inflation at the 2% target, removing the earlier easing bias. So while Governor Bailey cautioned later in the day against jumping to “strong conclusions”, investors dialled up expectations of BoE rate hikes in 2026 to +70bps (+49bps on the day), with a 53% chance of a hike priced in for April. Our UK economist has changed his call to no longer expect any rate cuts this year, with the prospect of rate hikes also possible should limited fiscal support to curb inflation materialise, and if the Iran conflict lasts into April and beyond. You can see his full take here.

The hawkish BoE decision, the timing of which coincided with the bond market open in the US, triggered a sharp front-end selloff as discussed at the top. The moves were more modest further out the curve, though 10yr bonds also sold off across the continent, with gilt (+10.8bps), bund (+1.7bps), BTP (+5.0bps) and OAT (+3.6bps) yields all moving higher. The underperformance in BTPs came after Italy announced yesterday that it would make a temporary 20-day tax cut on fuel, becoming the first large European country to use fiscal measures to alleviate surging energy costs. Meanwhile, the energy fears saw many European equity indices fall by more than 2% yesterday, including the STOXX 600 (-2.39%), FTSE 100 (-2.35%), DAX (-2.82%) and CAC 40 (-2.03%), although part of that was due to Europe catching up to Wednesday’s overnight news of Iran’s attack against Qatar’s LNG facility.

In terms of the other central bank decisions, the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75%, with the governor saying that it is expected to remain at this level for some time, though alternative scenarios showed a wide range of uncertainty on the rate path ahead. Finally, the SNB left policy rates at zero while incorporating their new, higher willingness to lean against Swiss Franc strength into their policy statement. See more from our FX strategists here.

Asian equity markets are fairly quiet this morning which can only be a positive thing at the moment. Japan is closed for a holiday with the Hang Seng (-0.63%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.82%) lower but with the KOSPI (+0.52%) higher again on the back of tech stocks, and is now up over 5% this week.

In monetary policy action, China’s central bank kept its loan prime rates unchanged for a tenth straight month, with the one-year LPR held at 3.00% and the five-year rate, which influences mortgage pricing, at 3.50%, in line with market expectations.

To the day ahead now, we’ll get the UK’s February public finances, Germany Feb PPI, Italy January trade balance, current account balance, ECB January current account, Eurozone January trade balance, Canada January retail sales. The ECB’s Nagel will also speak today.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 08:37

"Lot Of Questions On Structure:" Goldman Reacts To Old Bay Maker's Bid For Unilever Food Unit

Bloomberg reported earlier this week that Unilever Plc was in early talks to sell its food business - a move that would end its competition with major packaged-food rivals, including Nestlé, PepsiCo, and Kraft Heinz.

By Friday morning, Unilever stated in a press release that, despite "media speculation regarding a potential transaction involving its Foods business," it had, in fact, received an "inbound offer" for the unit from Hunt Valley, Maryland-based McCormick & Company.

"Unilever confirms that it has received an inbound offer for its Foods business and is in discussions with McCormick & Company, Inc. There can be no certainty that any transaction will be agreed," the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods company said.

Bloomberg reported earlier this week that Unilever was in the early stages of offloading all or part of its food business.

Unilever CEO Fernando Fernandez is making a strategic shift to secure at least higher-growth revenue from personal care, wellness, and beauty products, pivoting away from lower-margin food items. Fernandez is now a year into the turnaround plan.

Unilever shares rose nearly 2% in London trading on the news. The stock is down 5% year to date and has traded sideways since 2019. McCormick shares in premarket trading in New York were flat. This year, shares are down 20% and have halved from their 2022 peak above $100.

Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense offered her first take on a potential deal in which McCormick could acquire Unilever's food unit.

Has confirmed that it is in talks with McCormick regarding an offer for its Food business. In the context of investor feedback earlier this week revealing limited appetite for a long, messy spin-off, it is encouraging we've had two reports of trade buyer interest for this asset (one of which is now confirmed).

Note that there would likely be less of an anti-trust concern for Unilever Food combining with McCormick (than Kraft Heinz). Lots of questions on structure with investors noting Unilever Foods is larger, more profitable and should trade on a higher premium.

WSJ and Reuters mention a 100% equity deal but people view that as an unlikely outcome given aforementioned points. Most investors we spoke with are considering a merged entity in which Unilever retains a majority stake but also receives some cash.

This would enable deconsolidation of Food but participation for Unilever in upside associated with merger synergies (which could potentially offset dissynergies for Unilever group). As mentioned earlier this week, investors see merit in an exit of Food from a long term growth and multiple perspective although are wary of cash/profit dilution.

For McCormick, the deal would accelerate its push beyond spices into condiments and branded foods.

Known for Old Bay seasoning, the company would be building on prior acquisitions such as French's and Frank's RedHot.

*  *  * Want some amazing spice made with American ingredients?

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 08:25

My first day of Spring (yay!) reads:

• Finance Bros to Tech Bros: Don’t Mess With My Bloomberg Terminal: Professional investors spend more time with the computer system than they do with their spouses. So when AI evangelists declared it ‘cooked,’ it was war. A battle of insults and threats has broken out between the tech world and Wall Street. (WSJ)

• Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026: Bond traders are no longer pricing in any chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year after the Bank of England stoked concern that global central banks may need to act soon against inflation. Yields in Europe and the US climbed across maturities, with those on two-year US Treasuries — which are especially sensitive to expectations for Fed policy — higher by 11 basis points to 3.89%. (Bloomberg) see also Demand destruction has begun: The ominous headline comes from JPMorgan’s team of oil analysts, who have been churning out good stuff over the past few weeks. By mid-March, multiple sectors in Asia had shifted into a defensive footing as energy prices spiked and supplies tightened. The retreat in refined product flows is already visible: shipments from the region’s major exporters are down about 30% over the past 10 days versus the five‑month baseline, with preliminary data for the last week pointing to an even steeper 35% drop. The pullback is sharpest in jet fuel (down more than 40%), followed by gasoline (down more than 30%) and diesel (down more than 20%). (Financial Times)

• Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In. Fed chair Jerome Powell says he will stay on the board until DOJ probe ends—and maybe longer. (Wall Street Journal)

• Concierge Nation: Welcome to White-Glove America: The growing bifurcation of the American experience—pay enough and you can skip every line, access every service, while everyone else waits. Two-tier citizenship with a smile. (Financial Times)

• Safe until crisis: What 300 years of wars reveal about government debt safety: Government bonds are widely viewed as safe assets, especially in times of recession and financial crisis. This column presents evidence from three centuries of US and UK history showing that wars and pandemic-scale emergencies have in fact consistently produced large real losses for bondholders, challenging the conventional notion that government bonds are safe assets. Public debt sustainability has returned to the centre of policy debates.  (CEPR)

• Cuba Is Going Dark: Cuba is facing what may be its worst electricity crisis since Fidel Castro’s revolutionaries swept to power 67 years ago. Following weeks of frequent blackouts, the national grid suffered a “complete disconnection” on Monday, according to the energy ministry. Blackouts are getting worse, and on some days the entire island is plunged into near total darkness. (New York Times)

• Meet the Lobbyist Next Door: What do a Real Housewife, an Olympic athlete, and a doula have in common? They’re all being paid by an ad-tech startup as influencers—peddling not products but ideologies. Grassroots lobbying has gone professional, and your neighbor might be a paid advocate without you knowing it. The line between activism and astroturfing keeps blurring. (Wired)

• Anti-Semitism Is Becoming Mainstream: The Michigan synagogue attack is a grim data point in a trend that should alarm everyone—anti-Jewish violence is escalating and moving from the fringes to the mainstream.  (The Atlantic)

• Trump is bombing the global economy: An inflationary downturn looms. Donald Trump just TACO’d again, did he? Mere days after insisting he would accept nothing less than “unconditional surrender” from Iran, on Monday he decided “we’ve already won” and that his war would end “very soon.”The geopolitical whiplash is wreaking havoc on oil prices, markets, and whatever’s left of policy credibility. (UnHerd) see also I’m Sick And Tired of All The Winning: A blistering assessment of how Gulf War Three is going—spoiler: not well—and the gap between triumphalist rhetoric and ground reality. Gulf War Three is not going well for the United States. (Drezner’s World)

• How Did Flea Make a Jazz Album? Practice, Practice, Practice. The Red Hot Chili Peppers bassist returned to the trumpet, for a new record featuring Nick Cave, Thom Yorke and a core cast of contemporary jazz luminaries. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Fund. Previously, he was at Legg Mason Capital Management covering specialty finance + consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Miller competed in the Poker World Series Main Event. He began his career working for his father, famed investor Bill Miller III.

 

The rising prices of oil and gasoline after the start of Iran war

Source: Reddit

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

How To Transport Next-Gen Nuclear Fuel Safely? NANO Nuclear Hits Key Milestone

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

A New York-based company has taken a significant step to develop a proprietary, optimized transportation solution for High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel.

NANO Nuclear Energy achieved the conceptual design milestone for an advanced, proprietary HALEU transport package supporting next-generation nuclear reactors.

World-class nuclear transportation expertise

“HALEU fuel logistics will be one of the foundational pillars of the advanced nuclear industry,” said Jay Yu, founder and chairman of NANO Nuclear.

“Our collaboration with Gesellschaft für Nuklear-Service mbH (GNS) has brought together world-class nuclear transportation expertise with NANO Nuclear’s proprietary fuel basket technology. Achieving this early design milestone represents an important step toward building the infrastructure needed to support the deployment of advanced reactors across the United States and globally.”

The project leverages NANO Nuclear’s exclusively licensed nuclear fuel transportation basket design, developed with the technical support of GNS Gesellschaft für Nuklear-Service mbH (GNS), one of the world’s foremost specialists in the treatment, packaging, and transportation of radioactive materials. GNS is globally recognized for its expertise in transport and storage cask design, licensing, and manufacturing, as well as advanced technologies for nuclear waste processing and facility decommissioning, according to a press release.

Nuclear fuel transportation package

The company highlighted that the HALEU transportation package currently under development is designed to support the transport of multiple advanced nuclear fuel types. It includes transportation of uranium oxide fuels, TRISO particle fuels, uranium-zirconium hydride fuels, uranium mononitride fuels, and molten salt reactor fuels.

This broad compatibility ensures that the transportation system can serve the diverse fuel requirements of emerging microreactor, small modular reactor (SMR), and advanced reactor technologies, according to NANO Nuclear.

The company also pointed out that working in close collaboration with GNS, NANO Nuclear has completed several major early-stage engineering milestones for the project. It includes the development of conceptual designs for two optimized fuel payload baskets capable of transporting HALEU materials in multiple fuel forms and completing a preliminary design for the transport package overpack, which will house the payload baskets during shipment.

Importantly, this work was performed under a formal Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Quality Assurance program, ensuring that all engineering and design processes align with the rigorous safety and documentation standards required for nuclear transportation systems, according to NANO Nuclear.

With these foundational design milestones completed, NANO Nuclear intends to continue advancing the fuel transport package through the next phases of development, including further engineering validation and regulatory engagement. The company plans to formally engage with the NRC to pursue certification of the transport package, an essential step toward enabling reliable commercial transportation of HALEU fuels across the United States.

The company also underlined that reliable transportation infrastructure for HALEU fuel is widely recognized as one of the most critical enablers of the next generation of nuclear energy technologies. As microreactors and advanced reactors move toward regulatory licensing and ultimate commercialization, the ability to safely transport advanced fuels will be essential to establishing a fully operational nuclear fuel supply chain.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 06:30

'Explosives And Extra Blood': Denmark Planned To Blow Up Greenland's Runways If US Invaded

In January 2026, amid escalating tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump over his renewed push to acquire control of Greenland, Denmark's military deployed explosives and blood supplies to the Arctic island as part of contingency plans to counter a potential American attack.

The preparations were revealed in a report by Denmark's public broadcaster DR, which cited multiple high-level sources from the Danish government, military, and intelligence services, as well as officials in France and Germany.

Danish troops sent to Greenland early in the year carried sufficient explosives to demolish key runways - near the capital Nuuk and at the former air base in Kangerlussuaq - to prevent U.S. aircraft from landing in the event of an invasion. Blood supplies from Danish hospitals were also transported to treat potential casualties in combat scenarios.

Two European officials confirmed the DR reporting on Thursday, noting that Denmark aimed to dramatically increase the costs and risks of any forceful U.S. takeover. France and Germany supported Copenhagen's strategy, with one official highlighting France's immediate and significant assistance in developing defensive plans.

One European official expressed deep concern at the time, stating they feared "this was going to go really wrong" given Trump's repeated threats during January.

These measures reflected the grave view taken across Europe of Trump's rhetoric toward a fellow NATO ally. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the situation as "the worst foreign policy crisis since the Second World War," crediting improved conditions to strong European cooperation.

The crisis eased after NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, leveraging his experience as a seasoned European leader, persuaded Trump during a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos to accept the framework of a potential "future deal" with Denmark regarding Greenland.

Frederiksen indicated that senior-level talks with the U.S. continue, seeking a compromise that upholds Denmark's and Greenland's sovereignty red lines. She expressed hope for an agreement but cautioned that Trump's interest in controlling Greenland persists.

In January, Denmark - along with allies including France, Germany, and other Nordic countries - deployed troops to Greenland under the guise of a scheduled military exercise, which Copenhagen had formally notified to the U.S. Department of Defense. However, DR reported the true purpose was to ready defenses against a possible U.S. assault and to guarantee any takeover would require overt hostility.

"The French were incredibly helpful," one European official told DR. "They understood straight away that we needed a plan."

Fresh from the U.S. intervention in Venezuela that ousted President Nicolás Maduro, Trump reacted sharply to the European deployments, threatening additional tariffs on Denmark and the involved nations.

One European official remarked that after Venezuela, some in Washington seemed to believe they could act with impunity. While the immediate fear has lessened, it has not vanished entirely.

DR interviewed 12 senior officials from Denmark, France, and Germany about the heightened preparations following the Venezuela operation. 

A former Danish minister summed it up: "Greenland has not gone away. It’s only sleeping."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 05:45

UK Teacher Banned For Saying Migrants Should 'Respect Our Laws Or Leave'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A British Physical Education teacher has been indefinitely banned from the classroom after daring to state that migrants should respect Britain’s laws, culture, and way of life — or leave.

Sam Everett taught at Haughton Academy in Darlington for two years. Someone identified his X account, reported him to the school, and triggered an investigation into his political views. 

The independent Teaching Regulation Agency panel that heard the case cleared him of racism and sexism, praised his unblemished teaching record, noted colleague endorsements, and recommended he keep his job. Publication of the findings alone would suffice as punishment, they ruled.

PE teacher who told migrants to 'respect our laws or leave' banned from classroom despite being cleared of racism and it being recommended that he keep his job https://t.co/hkIEUzB91Q

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 18, 2026

However, the Department for Education stepped in anyway and overruled the panel, claiming it had “failed to give sufficient weight” to the seriousness of his conduct. 

Everett is now banned from teaching for life — or at least two years before he can even apply to be reinstated, with no guarantee of success. He lost his job at the academy in June 2024.

The posts that sparked the witch hunt were hardly fringe. In one, Everett wrote: “Completely agree, if you don’t respect our laws, culture and way of life you should leave, nobody is forcing you to stay. We don’t go to other peoples countries and tell them they’re wrong for how they go about things.”

Responding to a claim that “The law of Allah is superior to your laws,” he replied: “Sick of hearing rubbish being spouted by these idiots. They can live in societies where their values are accepted, it isn’t here. Leave. You won’t be missed.”

On a Britain First post about “illegal migrant invaders” in small boats approaching British shores, Everett simply wrote: “Deploy the navy.”

He added: “There’s not an Islamist problem in our country according to some. How many times do we get called racists for being English? These people come from the most intolerable and barbaric places you can imagine and think they have more rights than us. Bore off.”

Other comments included the observation that anyone who uses the word “comrade” deserves to be shipped to Russia, and “Feel like ordering 20 nuggets every time I see these idiots” about pro-Palestine protesters picketing McDonald’s. When asked whether transgender comedian Eddie Izzard should be allowed in women-only toilets and changing rooms, he replied simply: “No.”

The panel found several posts ‘offensive’ and concluded Everett had shown a lack of tolerance. Yet it explicitly rejected any finding of racism or sexism. 

Colleagues spoke highly of him. A subsequent employer who knew the full details said he would rehire him without hesitation. Everett had shown “insight and remorse,” deleted the posts, and closed his accounts. The panel ruled there was “no significant ongoing risk of repetition.”

The panel report itself noted: “Mr Everett had, by his own admission, failed to successfully apply the necessary privacy controls and he was identifiable as a teacher on his profile. Although the school was not referred to, there was plainly enough information available to enable someone to email the school to express concerns about Mr Everett’s posts.”

None of that mattered to the Secretary of State’s decision-maker, who decided a mere published finding would not “satisfy the public interest requirement concerning public confidence in the profession.”

This thought crime machinery is regularly being deployed within education in the UK. As we previously reported, a veteran teacher was branded a terrorist threat and referred to the government anti-terror body Prevent for showing basic Trump campaign and inauguration videos in a U.S. politics class. 

Students claimed they were “emotionally disturbed” and the Local Authority Designated Officer warned the views “could constitute a hate crime” and amount to “radicalisation.”

The UK government itself funded a video game called Pathways through the Home Office’s Prevent program that warns 11- to 18-year-olds they risk being flagged as terrorists for researching immigration statistics, blaming migrants for job competition, or protesting the erosion of British values.

And counter-terror police released an ad showing a white teenager having his devices seized and facing a criminal record simply for sharing a link he thought was “funny” but was later deemed “terrorist content.”

The pattern is unmistakable: express mainstream concern about unchecked migration, cultural erosion, or basic law and order, and the state labels you a threat. Meanwhile the small boats keep coming, integration failures mount, and the public is told to stay silent or face professional destruction.

Everett’s case proves the open-borders lobby cannot tolerate even polite pushback. The very existence of these views threatens the narrative that mass migration is an unqualified success requiring zero assimilation.

Britain’s educators are now expected to parrot the approved line or be purged. Free speech and common sense have fallen — and the public’s confidence in the profession is the last thing the Department for Education seems concerned about.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 03:30

Orban Announces Will Block All EU Measures For Ukraine Until Oil Transit Restored

Hungary remains one of the lone Ukraine-skeptic EU/NATO members which actually has a lot of leverage, resulting in bolder and bolder pronouncements being issued by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of late.

He has newly made clear this week that Hungary will block all EU summit decisions in Ukraine's favor until oil Russian flows resume. There's ongoing controversy centered on the contested Druzhba pipeline and the central European nation's vital flows from Russia.

"We would like to get the oil, which is ours, from the Ukrainians, which is now blocked by the Ukrainians, I did not support any kind of decision here, which is in favor of Ukraine ... [as long as] the Hungarians are not able to get the oil which belong to us," Orbán stated.

Obran has already blocked a proposed €90 billion ($103 billion) loan for Ukraine as well as efforts to slap new sanctions on Moscow, despite the pleadings, pressure, and interventions from other EU leaders.

"I will never support any kind of decision here which is in favor of Ukraine," Orbán made clear at an EU meeting Thursday. "The Hungarian position is very simple. We are ready to support Ukraine when we get our oil, which is blocked by them," Orbán underscored further.

Budapest has accused Ukraine of intentionally leaving the pipeline in a state of disrepair after Kiev alleged that Russia struck it. Ukraine has been charged with seeking to indirectly punish Hungary and squeeze its energy supplies.

But Orbán has accused the Zelensky government of playing 'games':

According to EU officials, Ukraine has recently accepted technical and financial assistance from the EU to repair the pipeline. Kiev however said that the necessary repairs would take another month and a half.

"Without getting that oil, all the households and Hungarian companies will go [into] bankruptcy," Orbán said. "It's not a joke. It's not a political game."

Russian oil shipments to Hungary and Slovakia via Druzhba were first halted after the Jan. 27 airstrike in question on equipment and infrastructure in western Ukraine. But in the wake of this, Ukrainian media and officials have positively boasted of recent actions which harm the two EU members Hungary and Slovakia.

For example, one Ukrainian official in late February described on a drone attack on Russian energy infrastructure, "long-range SBU drones caused a 'bavovna' (explosion) at the main oil pumping station 'Kaleykino' near Almetyevsk in Tatarstan. It receives oil from Western Siberia and the Volga region and mixes it before sending it for export. The station is a key hub for supplying raw materials to the 'Druzhba' oil pipeline."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 02:45

Russia Benefiting From US-Iran War While Impacts On China Are 'Complicated': Analysts

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

Operation Epic Fury presents Russia and China with a “mixed bag” of potential opportunities, but neither appear poised to take advantage of the United States’ “distraction” with Iran, according to analysts with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

That, however, could change if the United States cannot quickly degrade the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz to allow commercial shipping to resume, and secure with Israel a convincing victory in decimating Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons, they concurred.

“Ultimately, this comes back to ... the duration of the war being key,” CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department Chief of Staff Will Todman said during a March 16 “State of Play” presentation in Washington, summarizing views from Russia expert Maria Snegovaya and China Power Project Director Bonny Lin.

Snegovaya said while Russia has accrued short-term benefits from the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, a battlefield advantage against Ukraine is not among them.

“Ukraine has passed through the worst, hopefully,  this winter,” she said. “It’s spring now, so it’s a little bit easier for them to survive Russian attacks. Also, Russian attacks have similarly slowed down somewhat in the recent weeks, although it doesn’t mean that they will not resume at high intensity quickly.”

President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian oil when he issued a 30-day waiver on March 12. Moscow has pocketed more than $7 billion in increased oil sales since, Snegovaya said.

But that’s hardly “a game-changer” for Russia considering it has a $50 billion deficit in its 2026 budget and is still moving forward with plans to cut at least $25 billion from its annual spending plan, she said, an indication that “Russian officials do not really anticipate this to radically alter its economic situation” unless the strait remains hazardous for an extended time.

Snegovaya said it would take weeks, if not months, for Russia to boost oil production to truly profit from sanctions being lifted and noted banks in India, for instance, are hesitant to “make payments” for Russian oil that may not be delivered once the 30-day waiver expires.

Iran’s value to Russia, she said, is serving as a disruptive force against U.S. interests in the Middle East and, while it is providing intelligence to Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin could threaten to send sophisticated weapons to Tehran as leverage in dealing with the Trump administration in extending the sanctions waiver or in sustaining support for Ukraine.

Snegovaya noted Russia, along with China, abstained from voting in the March 11 U.N. Security Council condemning Iran for attacking its Gulf state neighbors, adopted in a 13–0 vote.

But unlike China, Russia opted to participate in planned naval exercises earlier this year, she said, noting there are reports that newly minted Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, named to succeed his father—killed in the Feb. 28 decapitation strike that kicked off Operation Epic Fury—as Iran’s “supreme leader,” is convalescing from wounds in Moscow.

“I think it was a Kuwaiti paper that said that, and—maybe I shouldn’t say this—but they’re not always extremely driven by facts,” Todman said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi with Djibouti's Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Mahamoud Ali Youssouf upon his arrival at the diplomatic institute in Djibouti on Jan. 9, 2020. -/AFP via Getty Images

China: It’s ‘Complicated’

Lin, who heads the CSIS China Power Project, said how the war affects China is “complicated” since it receives 25 percent of its crude oil imports from Iran, but she dismissed fears it will seize the moment to invade Taiwan while the United States remains in conflict with Iran.

“I think, usually, pundits are too quick to link whatever the United States does to Taiwan,” she said. “There is a link, but it’s important to remember China has its own set of calculations for Taiwan that isn’t just based off whether the United States can defend Taiwan or not.”

Lin said the planned late-March meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is far more important to China than Iran. Trump said on March 16 that he’s requested the meeting be delayed “a month or so.”

“So I think the reason why China has not directly engaged with the United States on Iran is, I think, they want to keep these issues separate,” she said.

China has more at stake in the region than oil imports, Lin said, noting that “since 2019, it has invested nearly $90 billion in LNG facilities, ports, various different projects, power grids, petrochemical projects” across the region. Its exports to the Middle East grew nearly twice as fast as its exports to the rest of the world in 2025, according to the Institute for Energy Research.

“So as Iran is retaliating” in attacking Gulf state energy infrastructure, “it’s also impacting China’s overall investment in the region,” she said.

But it’s unlikely to send warships to aid a U.S.-led effort to shield commercial ships from attack in the strait, Lin said. Even though it has two destroyers stationed in Djibouti on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and is building a “dual-use” port in Gwadar on Pakistan’s Arabian Sea coast.

There are several reasons for this, she said, noting China has avoided formal defense commitments to Iran, has been “distancing itself” from the regime in Tehran, and continues to purchase 90 percent of the discounted, sanctioned oil Iran produces with Chinese flagged or contracted tankers still moving up to 12 million barrels of crude through the strait a day.

She said in analyzing internal Chinese commentary on the war, contrary to being pleased to see the United States expending expensive air-defense munitions such as THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems and Patriot air-defense systems to knock down Iranian drones, many are “suspicious” that the Trump administration is sending Beijing a message.

“For example,” Lin said, “I’m seeing Chinese experts write, ‘Well, why did the United States and Israel have to [use] so many advanced capabilities against a medium-sized power like Iran? Well, maybe because the United States wants to exercise the capability so they can ... demonstrate a real world exercise of it, so they can use it later against China.’”

Lin said other analysts in China are “saying, ‘This is the second major operation the United States has conducted this year, first against Venezuela, second against Iran. And for both of these countries, they are critical suppliers of oil to China.’ So, yes, it is not directly against China right now, but it could be used to indirectly contain China.”

From China’s perspective, “I don’t think they’re seeing these conflicts as completely separate. And as a result, I don’t think the first thing that comes to China’s mind, or leading Chinese experts’ minds, is, ‘How do we take advantage of the situation?’ It’s more of, ‘To what extent is this situation going to negatively impact China?’”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 02:00

Out Of The BDC, Into The CLO: World's Largest Private Credit Fund Repacking Loans As Bonds Hoping To Find New Investors

When a motley crew of private credit loans (mostly to software companies) are all mixed in and thrown together into a messy melange known as a Business Development Company, then quietly all go sour and spark a redemption run, what's the frazzled investor to do? Why take them out of the melange, put them into a different wrapper, changing nothing except the name and pretending everything is now somehow different. 

That's what Blackstone is about to do. According to Bloomberg, the firm's flagship private credit fund is planning to sell bonds backed by a broad swathe of its $82.5 billion of assets. 

BCRED, the world’s largest business development company, is looking to finalize the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) deal early next week, the Bloomberg sources said. Proceeds will be used to repay some existing debt, they added which the company desperately needs at it was recently flooded with redemption requests which amounted to a whopping 7.9% of its flagship private credit fund, more than the statutory limit of 7%.

Regular readers are of course familiar with BCRED: the Blackstone fund earlier this month took the unusual step of asking some of its senior leaders to pitch in $150 million to help fund elevated redemption requests rather than cap investor withdrawals like some of its private credit peers. Still, BCRED is a regular CLO issuer, and the latest sale was planned months ago, one of the people said.

The transaction highlights an increasingly popular option for BDCs to raise debt from Wall Street investors. Last year, at least three BDCs issued private credit CLOs for the first time, including Apollo Debt Solutions BDC, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund and Kohlberg & Co LLC. 

CLOs package up corporate loans into bonds of varying size and risk. The biggest bond in the BCRED deal, rated AAA, is expected to price at an interest rate premium of 1.3 percentage points, the people said. That’s a similar level to deals BCRED issued last year.

Of course, whether one calls it a BDC or a CLO, the assets are identical - in both cases private loans, many of which have been mismarked and/or gone source - and the only different is what are the liabilities wrapping them.

And since the appears to be lots of confusion, we will write a detailed primer on the topic this weekend. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/20/2026 - 00:55

The Ultimate Race Hoax

Authored by Scott Greer via American Greatness,

It was a case that captured the nation’s attention 20 years ago. In March of 2006, a black stripper accused three members of Duke University’s nearly all-white lacrosse team of rape. The only evidence for the crime was her own testimony, which changed repeatedly. It didn’t matter that every other eyewitness disputed the rape claim. An opportunistic district attorney, a vengeful cop, a feminist nurse, and a ravenous media were all ready to believe the Duke lacrosse rape, and that was enough to make it “truth” in the public eye for much of 2006.

The Duke lacrosse hoax offered a preview of America’s coming social conflicts in the age of woke. Imagined racial grievance, feminism, and belief in “white privilege” all fueled this story. The media was all too eager to buy it. Journalists wanted to believe it was true to show that white men are the real menace to society. It was a story too “good” to pass up. It was also a story too “good” to be true.

No lessons were learned from the Duke lacrosse case. We would see similar lies play out with Trayvon Martin, Michael Brown, and Rolling Stone’s infamous “A Rape on Campus” story. While District Attorney Mike Nifong paid a high price for his reckless pursuit of the case, the media and activists who aided him suffered no real consequences. Hate hoaxes would flourish as a result.

The story is best explained by the 2007 book, Until Proven Innocent: Political Correctness and the Shameful Injustices of the Duke Lacrosse Rape Case by Stuart Taylor Jr. and K. C. Johnson.

The tale begins with a bored group of youth looking to entertain themselves while stuck on campus during spring break. The lacrosse team, unlike other Duke students, couldn’t vacation with the time off. They had games and practice during the holiday, leaving them in Durham. To blow off steam, the team decided to hire strippers for a party. Too many of their teammates were underage and couldn’t go to a strip club, so they decided to bring the entertainment to a house where a bunch of lacrosse players lived. They requested two strippers, one of whom was Crystal Mangum.

Mangum was a disturbed woman with a rap sheet and a history of mental illness and substance abuse. She had even made up a gang rape allegation in the past. On the night of March 13, 2006, she showed up severely inebriated after a weekend of having sex with multiple men. She and the other stripper didn’t perform their duties well. The lacrosse men quickly became disgusted with their antics and regretted the $800 they had spent on the night’s entertainment. The guys argued with the other stripper, Kim Roberts, over what was happening. Tempers flared, and Roberts decided to leave with Mangum, who could barely stand on her own. Roberts called the lacrosse guys “short-dicked white boys,” which prompted one of them to call her the n-word. That action would be used to establish the entire lacrosse team as deranged racists.

Roberts would call the police on the lacrosse team over the slur, claiming she was just passing by the house when they began calling her names. She drove away with Mangum, who was too intoxicated to communicate properly. Roberts took her passenger to a local grocery store and got security to call 911 on the disturbed Mangum. When taken to the hospital, Mangum faced the possibility of being involuntarily committed. But she found her opportunity to avoid that fate when she was asked by a nurse if she had been raped. She replied yes, which gave her a ticket out of involuntary commitment.

Thus began the rape hoax. The examining nurse was a feminist activist who fully believed Mangum’s story and found enough evidence to support the theory due to evidence of sexual activity. However, there was no evidence of physical harm done to her. Her word, supported by the feminist nurse, was enough to get police involved. The case was taken up by Durham police sergeant Mark Gottlieb, an officer with a notorious reputation for going hard on Duke students. Administrators had even requested that Gottlieb be reassigned due to his harsh crusade against students.

But this would be the man who investigated the case, and he was committed to proving these privileged lacrosse players had committed an unspeakable crime. Gottlieb was even willing to rig the evidence to fit the picture he wanted to paint. He would later write “supplemental case notes” months after the event took place to make them seem like they were taken right at the beginning of the investigation. This is just one example of his dubious practices that would be used to crucify the lacrosse players.

Gottlieb’s behavior, however, looks like that of an Eagle Scout compared to DA Mike Nifong. Nifong is the true villain in this story. He was the interim Durham County DA in 2006, filling out the rest of the term of the previous officeholder who had been appointed to the North Carolina Supreme Court. He was given that appointment under the assumption he would not run for a full term. He instead decided to run for a full term anyway. Things did not look good for Nifong’s chances to keep the job in early March 2006. The Duke lacrosse case offered him a lifeline. The racially charged case allowed the white lawyer to win over black voters in the diverse district. He tied his political survival to Mangum’s tall tale. It would help him win the election, but at the price of his disbarment and removal from office in the following year.

Nifong immediately condemned the Duke lacrosse team in public, calling them a “bunch of hooligans” and saying it was his mission to prevent Durham from being known as a place where “a bunch of lacrosse players from Duke rap[ed] a black girl.” His over-the-top comments were taken as scripture by the press, which incited a frenzy to declare these young men guilty of rape. Nancy Grace was one of the worst offenders. Night after night, Grace and other cable news hosts would insist these lacrosse players committed an evil, racist act against an innocent black girl. Mangum went from a mentally ill, drug-addled criminal to a hardworking mom and model college student in the media.

There was a strong desire to believe that preppy white boys were out raping innocent black women. It’s a case one would find depicted regularly on Law & Order and other popular movies and TV shows. The myth mattered more than reality.

Several Duke professors and left-wing students embraced the story. In an ad in the student newspaper, 88 professors endorsed a message that claimed the elite university was a hotbed of racial and sexual violence. Many of these professors would go on to punish lacrosse players in their classes with bad grades and insulting comments. Faculty were at the forefront of decrying the “white privilege” and “systemic racism” that allegedly emboldened these white men to rape a black woman. Virtually none of these professors would apologize for their rush to judgment after the case fell apart.

Mangum’s story was fishy from the beginning. Roberts, her fellow stripper, called the story a “crock” when initially questioned by police. Mangum showed no signs of bruising and was only alone by herself in the house for a few minutes. Her description of her attackers didn’t match anyone on the lacrosse team. She claimed three short, chubby men assaulted her. The three who were eventually charged did not match her descriptions. Her story imagined the event was a bachelor party, complete with her assailants referencing a wedding the next day. None of that was true. She also kept changing the story, adding more participants, alleging more physical force on her, and other new details each time she retold the story. It was obvious she couldn’t keep her story straight. But Nifong, Durham’s black community, and the national media chose to believe her anyway.

Mangum could not even consistently identify the three suspects in photo lineups. The three charged players—David Evans, Collin Finnerty, and Reade Seligmann—were basically chosen at random. Seligmann and Finnerty had alibis putting them outside of the house when the alleged rape could have occurred. That didn’t matter. They were still charged with the bogus crime.

Durham’s black community was incensed by the rape allegation. Numerous threats of violence were issued against Duke students, with even a few assaults occurring against white students by local blacks. One of the accused, Reade Seligmann, had to drive away from a local car wash after attendees recognized him and began violent gestures at him. Some local activists didn’t even care whether the players were innocent or not. They felt they should go to prison anyway as payback for all the allegedly innocent black men who went to jail. The NAACP was heavily involved in the case and pressured the judges to issue gag orders to prevent the truth from coming out about the players’ innocence.

But the truth finally did come out, slowly but surely. 60 Minutes, in contrast to much of the media, conducted a thorough investigation of the case in the fall of 2006, including interviewing the accused. The CBS show discovered that the case was filled with holes, and it was likely a hoax. But it still took months for the accused to be absolved. North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper eventually dismissed the case and declared the lacrosse players innocent in April of 2007.

While the players were accused of stonewalling investigators, they in fact did the opposite. Ever since the criminal investigation was launched, players fully cooperated, provided DNA, and even were willing to subject themselves to polygraph tests. Their story remained consistent and clear throughout the ordeal, unlike Crystal Mangum’s. But due to the motivations of others, it still took over a year to definitively rule that the players were innocent.

Fortunately, Nifong’s career was ruined by the case, and he even spent a short time in jail for his behavior. Mangum avoided charges of filing a false police report due to her mental illness, but would later serve a lengthy jail sentence for murdering a boyfriend. She was released from prison earlier this month. In 2024, she finally admitted she made up the whole thing.

The damage was already done when three innocent men were falsely accused and charged with a crime. The truth coming out only prevented further injustice. It didn’t wipe away what had already been done.

The worst part is how this story kept being repeated over the coming years. America bought the lie about Trayvon Martin and how he was an innocent black boy shot in the back. We experienced riots over the Michael Brown lie, with millions falsely believing he had his hands up when he was shot. Countless numbers of young men had their lives ruined during the 2010s campus rape hysteria, most notably culminating in Rolling Stone’s libelous “A Rape on Campus.” Our whole country was torn apart by the mythology surrounding George Floyd’s death.

Sometimes the truth emerged in these cases, just like it did with the Duke lacrosse hoax. But many still chose to believe the lies over the truth. The former supported their prejudices about our society, while the latter undermined them. It’s why hate hoaxes kept being perpetuated and believed. The Left and the media wanted to believe that evil white racists are doing terrible things to minorities on a regular basis. The demand for these cases far outstripped the supply of actual occurrences.

Thanks to social media and the decline of the establishment media, it’s harder for such a hoax to go unchallenged. But the desire to believe such nonsense is still present within our society. Belief in white privilege and systemic racism is much more mainstream than it was in 2006. We will still see hoaxes promoted to demonize middle America and support calls for change.

It’s up to conservatives to ensure these hoaxes are quickly debunked. We can’t trust the mainstream media to do the job.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 23:30

Pakistan Outraged At Being Called An Emerging Missile Threat To US By DNI Gabbard

The US declared Pakistan a major non-NATO ally all the way back in 2004, but relations have soured at various points since then. But given Pakistan does indeed remain a close regional ally, which is also nuclear-armed, the country is outraged at Wednesday's Senate Intelligence hearing wherein Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard raised some eyebrows over a new 'missile threat'.

She for the first named the South Asian country along with Russia and others in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment Report, citing that Pakistan's missile program could be a future threat to the Untied States.

"Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that put our homeland within range," Gabbard told the intelligence committee.

She then specified: "Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the homeland."

Pakistan ballistic missile, file image/Arab News

While other countries listed - especially Iran and North Korea have long been named by US officials as 'rogue' actors or else part of an 'axis of evil' (going back to the Bush era) - this appears to be the first time Pakistan was openly named in such a high-level annual briefing before Congress. Perhaps Washington is thinking that the conservative Islamic country is just 'one coup away' from becoming highly dangerous.

Gabbard also described more broadly the South Asian region as a place of "enduring security challenges" - warning that India-Pakistan relations "remain a risk for nuclear conflict." At the moment, Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan under the Taliban are in a state of active hot war, though there have been reports of a shaky ceasefire.

Pakistan is angry at being singled out, and has communicated its objections to Washington:

On Thursday, Tahir Andrabi, spokesman for Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said: "Pakistan categorically rejects the recent assertion by a United States official alleging a potential threat from Pakistan’s missile capabilities."

Pakistan's strategic capabilities are "exclusively defensive" in nature, he said, and are "aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty and maintaining peace and stability in South Asia."

The foreign ministry official further explained, "Pakistan’s missile program, which remains well below intercontinental range, is firmly rooted in the doctrine of credible minimum deterrence vis-a-vis India. In contrast, India’s development of missile capabilities exceeding 12,000 kilometres [7,460 miles] reflects a trajectory that extends beyond regional security considerations and is certainly a cause of concern for the neighborhood and beyond."

At times in the last couple decades, the US has accused Pakistan of cooperating with terrorists, and for failing to reign in ISIS-type operatives in its restive northwest province - a region which has long proven a headache for the whole region.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 23:05

Why Is Australia Not Already Rationing Fuel?

Authored by 'Fast Eddy' via 'The World according to Fast Eddy' substack,

I’m an Australian Wholesale Fuel Trader

An insider's explanation of what is going on...

The commentary below was lifted from a Reddit post.

Other than the issues I have already raised in previous articles How Is Iran Blocking and Mining Hormuz? And so it begins.... the question I am asking after reading this analysis is:

Why is Australia Not Already Rationing Fuel?

I’m the pricing, sales and trading guy at one of Australia’s fuel importers. It’s been an insane two weeks on the trading and supply front, but now it’s the weekend and my brain is still wired running at 150%.

My partner asked me last night in detail to explain the overall situation. I thought I’d share my knowledge here and happy to answer questions. I’ll respond when I can throughout this weekend!

Note we don’t have any retail sites so I can’t really speak for retail fuel. I also obviously can’t share anything proprietary.

1. Australian fuel is 90% imported these days, mainly from Asia.

The Asia refiners are more competitive and have economies of scale that compete Australian refineries, that’s why most of our have closed. Australia for over a decade has not met the internationally agreed 90-day buffer of fuel reserves in the country, we sit a roughly 32 days of stock. This is the fault of both Labor and Liberal governments in the past. Note: it’s easy to store crude oil but much more difficult to store refined products like diesel and petrol, they are flammable and go off after a few months of sitting in a tank. It is very expensive to build brand new storage tanks, which is why no commercial personal is doing it - this is why we import so much oil throughput.

2. Not all crude oils are the same.

The Asian refineries are set up to refine medium sour crude (far more experienced chemical engineers, or Google, can give you more info of the API and Gravity ranges of crude oil types). This is mainly produced by the Middle East. It is very hard to replace this crude oil into the refineries at short notice. So it doesn’t matter how many barrels the US releases from its crude stock piles as that is a “light sweet crude” (and is prohibitively expensive on the ocean freight component). Asian refiners have been cancelling contracts and governments like Thailand and China are banning diesel and petrol exports to keep these critical fuels in their own countries. Therefore, it has gotten very expensive to source alternative cargos to supply Australia (something called the MOPS Premia has skyrocketed. So has backwardation).

The best analysis I am reading is a soon as the Middle East waterway (Strait of Hormuz) opens up, it will still be 1.5 to 2 months before the Asian refiners are running at full capacity again.

Ed: Australia - and I am sure most countries - do not have stored fuel that will last this long even with rationing.

The critical mining industry in Australia runs on diesel...

If this situation does not urgently get resolved, we will soon be dead men walking.

Meanwhile, the world sits on it’s hands watching and refusing to act. 

Am I alone in thinking there is something wrong with this picture?

Note you can’t just shut down a refinery, these things are designed to run 24/7. Shutting down completely puts equipment at serious risk of damage, therefore refiners are choosing to run at say 50% capacity to delay to running out of crude oil feedstock and not damage refinery equipment.

3. While Brent crude has gone from say 70 to 100 USD/barrel (ie roughly 40%), refined products like diesel, petrol and jet fuel, have spiked far higher relatively speaking.

This mainly comes down to the regional supply and demand issues being experienced in Asia. Note Australian fuel is roughly priced as Singapore fuel + ocean freight + local costs. Therefore you can’t just take the increase in Brent crude (main type of crude oil) and assume that’s the increase in cost to the fuel that you buy. Diesel seems to be facing far worse supply constraints compared to petrol aka gasoline (and jet fuel even worse than that). I’ll link a great article at the end on why jet fuel is spiking so much more (it’s a free article on substack)

4. Regional Australia wholesale diesel All the oil majors (Mobil, BP, Ampol etc) are understandably holding onto their own product to keep supplying their own retail stations (this was the case last week at least).

They stopped selling in the wholesale market. The oil majors years ago largely exited regional Australia and delivery services to farms etc. Independent wholesale business filled in this gap. They do not import their own fuel, but rather buy on the wholesale spot market (where I sell to them), and therefore usually have no term supply guarantees from BP, Ampol etc. Given regional Australia still runs on diesel fuel for all farming, food transportation etc, this is why you hear regional Australia having a fuel crisis more than the cities. This is why I believe that the electrification of key transportation supply chains is critical for Australia’s future. So for Chris Bowen, our Energy Minister, saying he is working with the majors to secure more diesel that is dedicated/prioritised for regional communities, I have no idea how the government are practically going to pull that off (price caps? Allocated volume with some sort of government mandated fixed price? Who knows how it’ll work, but it sounds nice in a speech).

5. Conclusion/generic thoughts

This situation isn’t resolving itself anytime soon unfortunately. There is a saying commodity trading - “high prices cure high prices and low prices cure low prices”. When the price sky rockets, demand drops off where possible or supply is increased. When there’s super low prices, supply reduces as said suppliers can’t stay in business selling at those low prices. In this current high prices situation, supply can’t increase right now, so the only lever is to reduce demand. If the price is kept low by governments, demand would stay around, you would have no more supply coming into Australia, and you would eventually run out of fuel.

Neither is a good situation, but running out of fuel entirely is probably worse than having some fuel at a high price, which theoretically destroys some flexible demand.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 22:40