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"Everyone Is Retarded And Nothing Works...": Kunstler's Theory Of Everything

Zero Hedge -

"Everyone Is Retarded And Nothing Works...": Kunstler's Theory Of Everything

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

A Theory Of Everything

"The Thing That Never Happens Keeps Happening."

- Kyle Becker on X

"Everyone is retarded and nothing Works."

Turns out that's the key to unlock the mystery of this particular Fourth Turning, the one here and now, of our own time. It's an excellent theory of everything happening these days, formulated by a close colleague of mine. And as far as I know, it's the only theory that makes sense. It explains, for example how and why consulting US attorney Joe DiGenova quit the grand jury investigation, as conducted by the DOJ in the Southern District of Florida (SDFL), of the treasonous conspiracy against the people of the USA running since 2016.

The most amazing part is that apparently no one in the country seems to give a shit about it. No politician has issued a statement. The blog-o-sphere, Twitter-sphere are mute. The President himself - the main target of the coup - was busy in Ireland this weekend. But let's face it: he has a duty to steer clear of interfering in juridical proceedings involving himself and his office.

The most diligent investigator of all, Dan Bongino, the podcaster who spent years documenting the serial turpitudes of RussiaGate, ImpeachmentGate, the 2020 election, the J-6 operation, and so on, who wrote several books about these crimes - and then became Deputy FBI director for a year, with access to the entire trove of evidence about all of it - says nothing now about the DiGenova affair. How is that possible? Instead, for months he's just played an insipid cheerleader on his daily podcast. Just imagine what Bongino really knows. Months ago, when he resigned from the FBI job, he stated publicly that what he saw in the J. Edgar Hoover building shocked him to his core.

I say all this because it looks like the case (or cases) in the SDFL will now go nowhere with diGenova out of the picture. Altogether, it was the gravest set of treasonous crimes against the Republic in our history, and nobody will be held accountable for it, a monumental insult following a possibly fatal injury to the country.

A certain amount of informed scuttlebutt comes my way, and the story I hear is that Joe DiGenova was of a mind to indict former president Barack Obama for his role in many phases of the ongoing coup, and that Todd Blanche blanched at that, in fear of provoking an even hotter civil war than the Red / Blue one currently raging from sea to shining sea (and especially in the three branches of government). Not just a civil war but, in effect, a civil race war, for fear of painting America's only black president a criminal.

Mr. Obama enjoys certain immunities against criminal prosecution for official actions he took as president - as determined in the SCOTUS decision Trump v. the United States, July, 2024 - but the parameters of what, exactly, official means remains squishy. The boundaries would have to be tested case-by-case in the lower courts. Which is what the grand juries sitting now in Florida might have done (or might yet somehow manage to do).

Was it an official act for Mr. Obama to turn Hillary Clinton's Russian Collusion campaign stunt into a seditious operation to run Mr. Trump out of office? Once Mr. Obama was out of office in 2017, did he direct continuing seditions through FBI director Wray and CIA directors Mike Pompeo and Gina Haspel? Does a record of correspondence exist, classified or otherwise? We know that the intel apparatus captures everything. Tulsi Gabbard might know what's in there. Perhaps the same things that shocked Dan Bongino to his core.

Once "Joe Biden" was installed in the Oval Office, did Barack Obama direct the cabal that actually ran the executive branch from Jan., 2021, to Jan., 2025 - did he act as a shadow president? What would the law say about that? And is he responsible for "Joe Biden's" ruinous policies such as the wide-open border and all it has entailed. One of Mr. Obama's closest insiders, John Podesta (also Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign chairman), became "senior advisor for climate policy" in the final months of "Joe Biden's" term. He was given $370-billion from the fraudulently-named "Inflation Reduction Act" to distribute as he saw fit, and an awful lot of it landed in Democratic Party adjacent NGOs. Was private citizen Obama involved in arranging any of that?

Is Barack Obama, the 44th President of the US, a true villain? He was a very slick performer during the eight years he was president. But now, the political faction he led - maybe still leads because, look around, who else is there? - has gone batshit crazy since his second term ended. His party beat a path straight into the overt advocacy of communism with a jihad cherry on top, and you don't hear him complaining about any of it.

What I hear is that Joe DiGenova intended to subpoena Barack Obama to give testimony to that Florida federal grand jury and that Todd Blanche nixed it, so Joe quit. The next day, diGenova told the media that if the Florida team is "allowed to do their jobs" they will "succeed supremely" and that the U.S. Attorney's office there was doing a "phenomenal job under the worst of circumstances." He later added, there was "plenty of evidence" but it "just takes time."

Whatever that means.

Yet everybody knows what went down in our country the past ten years, that a vicious blob called the Deep State has been running a continuous coup, just as everybody with half-a-brain knows exactly what Covid-19 was about.

The question that remains: does having half-a-brain mean you're retarded, and does that explain why nothing works in the USA, including the ability to manage the nation's justice apparatus?

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 16:20

Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine, IRGC Says, & Asserts 'Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed'

Zero Hedge -

Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine, IRGC Says, & Asserts 'Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed' Summary
  • IRGC says supertanker exploded after hitting mine in Hormuz, says strait remains closed.
  • 'Deal' headlines return: US seeks "Step-by-Step" agreement with Iran, reports state media.
  • Houthis seized more Red Sea territory, including Perim Island near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
  • Iran-Gulf diplomacy was postponed, delaying efforts to address the Strait of Hormuz crisis in what was to be a rare GCC-Iran meeting.
  • Saudi oil exports face ongoing disruption after a pipeline shutdown, pushing oil prices above $100/barrel.
//--> //--> //--> Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
Yes 5% · No 95%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine: IRGC

Iran's IRGC Navy has late Monday (local) announced that a foreign supertanker exploded when it struck naval mines after attempting to enter an unapproved zone of the southern Strait of Hormuz, Fars reports.

Bloomberg also picked up the reported tanker explosion, providing the following further details:

  • Efforts to contain the blaze have been unsuccessful, leaving the vessel engulfed in flames, Fars says
  • The statement identified the vessel as the supertanker EL GAIA, with IMO number 9325336
  • “Warnings had previously been issued regarding the dangers of this illegal passage”
  • “IRGC Navy decisively declares that the Strait of Hormuz is closed”

If the emerging reports are accurate, it contradicts President Trump's recent claims that the strait has been fully de-mined. Reuters in late August noted of a Truth Social post that the president proclaimed "all mines ‌had been detonated or removed from international waters of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran has been told that any ship ​or boat placing new mines will be ​destroyed."

Oil Drops on Return of 'US Seeks Deal' Headlines

Just as President Trump is appearing to show some desperation concerning soaring energy prices ahead of the midterm elections, and amid growing Republican angst, we witness a return to the 'a deal could return' style headlines which marked earlier phases of the war:

US seeks "Step-by-Step" agreement with Iran, reports ILNA citing Pakistani sources

  • As the war and US pressure against Iran continue, Washington's efforts to reach a "step-by-step" agreement with Tehran; a scenario that could be a prelude to the US entering the path of negotiations, without abandoning military and economic pressure.

And the all too familiar pattern that marked early summer...

OIL DROPS TO INTRADAY LOW, BRENT TRADES NEAR $106 A BARREL

Iranian state media is meanwhile suggesting that Washington interfered in what was a planned meeting between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That meeting, which was supposed to happen Monday, was postponed indefinitely - after reports said the Saudis sought to add something untenable to a draft agreement. Tehran is still rejecting that it is 'seeking' new talks with Washington.

Trump has issued several provocative Truth Social posts throughout the morning...

The next weeks could possibly see a return to Axios' 'negotiations imminent' WH leak tactics, to artificially keep energy prices under control...

Meanwhile and important indicator of where things actually stand...

Yemen's Houthis Attack Saudi Base, And Take Fire After Major Conquest

Yemen's Ansar Allah -- also known as the Houthis -- claimed it fired drones and missiles at King Khalid Air Base in southern Saudi Arabia. Dozens of ballistic missiles and drones targeted military infrastructure in the rare and major cross-border attack.

The Houthis say the base suffered direct hits and extensive damage in a "large-scale military operation", though this could not be immediately verified, after the operation which their military spokesman described as retaliation more than 300 Saudi airstrikes across Yemen over most of the past week. Early reports from open source analysts suggest serious damage sustained at the base.

The sprawling base in Khamis Mushait has historically been used at times by US and UK advanced fighter jets, and has hangars that are well-fortified, though it's unknown the degree to which Western assets continue to be stationed there. For example, it was heavily utilized by the Pentagon during the first Gulf War, from where stealth fighters were launched to attack high priority targets in Iraq.

A Houthi spokesman has declared that the ongoing mission's targeting includes "weapons depots and command and control centers that are managing the aggression against our nation and people."

On Sunday, the internationally recognized Yemeni government -- which controls neither the capital nor territory encompassing a majority of the population -- said its air force launched three strikes on Houthi positions in the Taiz region. There were also reports of artillery fire on a Houthi stronghold in Saada province, on the northern border with Saudi Arabia.

Via Institute for the Study of War

In a blitz that caught the world by surprise, the Houthis late last week achieved an enormous strategic victory by conquering the remainder of Yemen's western coastline it didn't already control -- positioning it to easily enforce its declared blockade against Saudi-related shipping entering or leaving the Red Sea via the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Houthi soldiers also took over Perim Island, which sits in the strait. 

As Associated Press noted, the seizure of the new territory puts the Houthis in much closer proximity to US forces: 

The Houthis’ advance puts them just 20 miles (32 kilometers) from the U.S. military base in Djibouti, on the other side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It’s the main U.S. base in Africa and one of several foreign military bases in Djibouti, including those of China, France and Japan.

The Houthi blockade is positioned as retaliation for the Saudi coalition's siege and blockade of Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Though the Houthi blockade only targets Saudi shipping, global cargo lines are highly wary of transiting the waterway that's narrower than the Strait of Hormuz. Many are rerouting traffic all the way around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, which requires at least 20 extra days and a lot more money. “Freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb are safe and orderly,” a Houthi official told Al Jazeera. 

While it's too little, too late for Riyah's hopes of some kind of big Washington intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday met US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) has confirmed. Likely they reviewed the coalition's narrowing options going forward, but President Trump has thus far expressed reluctance to get directly involved militarily, at a moment he's still trying to figure out what's next with Iran.

Iran Diplomacy Postponed

Cold water has been thrown on flickering hopes for finding an exit from the latest and most dangerous chapter in America's "endless wars," as a highly-anticipated Monday summit of Iran and other Persian Gulf states was postponed.

That bad news follows an eventful several days that saw Yemen's Iran-allied Ansar Allah take control of a large swath of strategic coastside territory. Saudi Arabia's critical east-west pipeline, shut down after a drone attack that originated in Iraq, may be the center of a major hit to global oil supply. 

The Monday meeting was set to take place in the Omani coastal city of Salalah, with attendees including foreign ministers of Iran, Oman, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Taking a US-friendly line, Bahrain had declined to attend, saying stability "cannot be preserved through a policy of appeasement” and demanding the strait be re-opened without "discrimination, fees or permits." The tiny state that is was home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet also cited its ongoing suspension of diplomatic relations with Iran.   

The meeting was going to focus on a proposed arrangement by which Iran and Oman would jointly manage the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the vital waterway is at a near standstill, more than six months after the United States and Israel launched a war on Iran. Axios' Barak Ravid, seen by many as a conduit for US-Israeli narratives, reported that Saudi Arabia had submitted amendments to the proposal. 

“At the request of some regional countries and by a joint decision of Oman and Iran, the meeting of foreign ministers of Persian Gulf coastal states, which was planned for Monday, has been postponed to another date,” Iranian foreign ministry official Mohammad Ali Bak told Iran's IRNA. If the meeting comes to fruition, it would be the first one to convene top diplomats from Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council since the war started on Feb 28. 

Previously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said attendees would be presented with route maps and other details about how ships would enter and depart the strait. Importantly, he emphasized that the proposal was not sufficient to actually reopen the strait. 

Closure of Saudi Pipeline Set To Remove 4% of Global Supply

A different lifeline was completely closed over the weekend, with no end in sight: Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline was shut down after a devastating attack on a pumping station that seemingly originated with Shiite militias in Iraq. The pipeline was playing a vital role in offsetting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, by sending oil to Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on the Red Sea.  

Saudi oil traders told Reuters that, unless the pipeline is opened up within days, the kingdom will run out of export stock, removing as much as 4% of worldwide supply from the market. Even before the pipeline-pumping station attack, Saudi inventory had plummeted to its lowest level in 30 years.  

Though Saudi Arabia initially called the closure a mere "precautionary measure," some observers have very little optimism about a quick resumption of pipeline flow. One source told Reuters it could take five to six weeks to repair. If you'd imagined the pumping station some small facility, this image should give you a proper orientation to what must be restored "in a few days" to avert a major disruption of global supply:

Overnight, West Texas Intermediate futures leapt by 2.89% to $102.94 a barrel. Brent was up almost as much, trading at $107.56. 

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Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 15:59

"Dead Mall" Era Ends As Shoppers Return, Values Surge And Sector Leads CRE Revival

Zero Hedge -

"Dead Mall" Era Ends As Shoppers Return, Values Surge And Sector Leads CRE Revival

The "malls are dead" narrative gained traction in corporate media coverage in 2016 and 2017 and lasted until 2022.

Those headlines reflected the strain across the sector as excess retail space, department-store closures, and shifting consumer habits led to widespread low occupancy and cratering property values.

But now, new data suggest that the "dead mall" narrative has not just reversed: that part of the CRE market is thriving, with a Wall Street Journal report saying it's outperforming every other major CRE sector.

CRE research firm Green Street released a new report showing that mall values across the US rose 13% over the past year, leading all 10 sectors it tracks and more than doubling the increase in overall CRE prices. That recovery has attracted investors who are souring on weak performance across office and multifamily properties.

Simon Property Group, the largest US mall owner, saw its shares surpass their 2016 peak in July. That earlier peak came just as the "dead mall" narrative began to erupt in MSM headlines. The stock is up nearly 11% this year.

WSJ cited Vincent Rouget, CEO of Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, a Paris-based CRE company, who explained that US tenant sales and net operating income growth are exceeding the company's broader portfolio average, with rent growth at levels unseen since the early 2010s.

"We see the type of rent growth that we haven't seen since the beginning of the 2010s," Rouget told the outlet.

Morgan Stanley real estate research chief Ronald Kamdem said, "In terms of how we think about the malls today fundamentally, this is probably the best it's felt post-Covid."

The tailwinds extend beyond trophy malls. CBL Properties, which entered bankruptcy protection during the Covid pandemic, reports rising traffic and sales. Its shares have climbed 48% this year, and it has acquired five properties since July 2025 after shrinking its portfolio footprint for years. 

CBL's West County Center near St. Louis couldn't refinance its debt in 2022, and the property was in decline but has since seen tenant sales increase by 13% since 2023. 

Oversupply conditions have likely abated, as Green Street said about an estimated 200 malls have closed since 2008, leaving about 900 operating nationwide. 

Resilient consumer spending has put the remaining malls on some of their strongest footing in years, and many have shifted from a department-store-led business model toward destinations built around shopping, dining, and entertainment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 15:45

Here's What's Happening Inside Convenience Stores As Gas And Diesel Spike

Zero Hedge -

Here's What's Happening Inside Convenience Stores As Gas And Diesel Spike

We continue to track convenience store trends as an indicator of working-class sentiment, building on our coverage of the spending pullback that emerged early in the US-Iran conflict. That weakness persisted into late summer as August's fuel-price spike put further pressure on household budgets.

The Gulf conflict and a global refining squeeze pushed regular gasoline above $4.50 a gallon and diesel above $5.50 in August, leaving consumers with less room for discretionary purchases.

Jefferies food analyst Scott Marks published a note on Monday morning providing new insight into consumer trends at the convenience store level in August, as elevated fuel prices appeared to renew pressure on consumers.

Marks and his team found that visits fell 2% from a year earlier, a 1.25-percentage-point deterioration in the annual growth rate compared with July. The reversal largely erased July's improvement, he said, adding that higher fuel prices in late August and early September suggest traffic could remain under pressure.

The squeeze is showing up both at the pump and inside the store. Across tracked convenience store food categories, volumes declined roughly 9% from a year earlier during the three months ended Aug. 22, compared with a 7.5% decline over the six-month period. Dollar sales fell about 3%, even as pricing growth accelerated to approximately 6% from 5%.

Marks added more color:

What We C: Traffic Takes a Step Back in August

Convenience store traffic stepped back down in August, with rising fuel prices appearing to renew pressure on the consumer. A vast majority of top food categories saw sales worsen L3M vs. L6M, with volume trends similarly worsening in most. Performance nutrition shakes were the clear standout on strong DD% growth, underscoring consumer demand for protein, while chocolate inflected negative and energy continues to lead in beverages.

Convenience channel traffic steps back down. C-store foot traffic fell ~2% y/y in August, representing a 125 bps sequential decline vs. July. This decline follows a 150 bps sequential improvement in July, with rising fuel prices in the back half of the month that remained elevated through August likely driving the reversal in trends. Notably, with fuel prices rising further in late August and early September, c-store traffic is likely to remain under pressure. Nielsen data showed broad-based softening across top food categories, with a majority experiencing weaker sales trends in the L3M versus L6M period. Volumes also deteriorated across most categories, while pricing accelerated in the majority.

CASY results underscore trade-down, low-end more pressured. CASY FQ1 pointed to a consumer still spending on food/bevs while trading down elsewhere, with inside comps +3.2% and PFDB +4.8% driven by traffic and units. All income cohorts grew, though lower-income shoppers were more pressured, and higher fuel prices drove fewer gallons per trip but more trips. Grocery softness was category-led, as national brand pricing pushed snack buyers into private label and beer stayed weak, while nicotine alts and energy outperformed. With expectations elevated into the print, shares traded off on multiple compression rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

Performance nutrition shakes lead as chocolate inflects negative. U.S. tracked channel convenience store sales and volume trends deteriorated in the L3M vs. L6M ending Aug. 22, with total convenience volumes worsening to down ~9% from ~7.5% and sales worsening to down ~3% from ~2.7%. Performance nutrition shakes were the clear standout, with sales up ~13.5% L3M (vs. ~9% L6M) on ~13% volume growth and ~15% TDP growth, underscoring consumer demand for protein. Chocolate inflected negative on sales (down ~1% L3M vs. up ~1% L6M) as volumes worsened to down ~10% from ~8.5%. Multi serve (down ~17.5%), ice cream (down ~11.5%), meat snacks (down ~11%) and confection (down ~10.5%) led volume declines, with multi serve, frozen novelty, and sandwiches deteriorating most sharply L3M vs. L6M. On a sales basis, multi serve (down ~12.5%), confection (down ~6.5%), doughnuts (down ~6%) and meat snacks (down ~6%) were the steepest decliners. Price realization remained positive for most categories, led by chocolate (+8.5%), with total convenience food pricing accelerating to +6% L3M from +5% L6M.

Energy Remains a Standout in Beverages. Non-Alc Beverages declined 0.5% y/y over the L3M (-0.2% L6M) in the convenience channel, while Energy's outperformance continues, up 4.7%. Pricing is sticking, innovation is working, and new consumers are entering the category as consumers prioritize functional beverages. Meanwhile, soft drinks declined on both a dollar (down 3.4%) and a volume basis (units down 7.5%) over the L3M. Beer did, too, with sales down 5.0% L3M.

The report draws on Placer.AI foot-traffic data and NielsenIQ data from major convenience store chains and fuel retailers, including 7-Eleven, Casey's, Circle K, QuikTrip, Royal Farms and Wawa, providing a broad view of spending behavior across the channel.

Marks' findings suggest consumers are becoming more defensive with their spending, trading down and reducing purchase volumes as fuel and food costs squeeze household budgets. Strength in select categories shows that consumers remain willing to spend. This consumer pressure story at the convenience store level doesn't bode well for the Trump administration ahead of the midterm elections, as folks usually vote with their pocketbooks. 

Professional subscribers can read more about consumer trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 15:27

NATO Vows More Ukraine Support After Boris Johnson & David Petraeus Train Attack Near-Miss

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NATO Vows More Ukraine Support After Boris Johnson & David Petraeus Train Attack Near-Miss

More escalation, NATO says. The Western military alliance's Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Monday that Russian drone strikes near the Ukraine-Poland border hit "close to NATO territory".

He said the Sunday attack, which occurred merely hundreds of meters from Poland's border, smacked of Putin's "desperation and also his desire to sow fear and terror." Western media outlets reported early Sunday that a Russian attack drone struck a civilian locomotive on the Kiev-to-Warsaw route with just two kilometers from the border.

Rutte pledged even more support for Ukraine in the wake of the attack. "He thinks that he can stop us from supporting Ukraine and that he can undermine our unity. He is wrong," the NATO chief said of the Russian leader.

via Epoch Times

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has indicated greatly stepped-up border security, and has newly stated: "These coming weeks and months will be a time of very intensified actions on the Russian side, and unfortunately we cannot rule out that this escalation will also affect our territory."

European media reports suggested that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other top officials may have been targeted. A train full of NATO security officials had reportedly just departed the station before the rare daytime strike.

And the former CIA director was on board, and commented:

Former CIA Director David Petraeus was at a Ukrainian train station Sunday when a Russian drone struck a Poland-bound train there.

Petraeus, a retired U.S. Army general, was aboard a separate passenger train at Yahodyn station near the Polish border when a jet-powered Russian drone struck the locomotive of a nearby train, according to multiple reports.

Petraeus said passengers on his train heard drones overhead and were evacuated after passing through Ukrainian customs. A large explosion followed.

According to the NY Times: "David Petraeus, the former C.I.A. director, could hear the Russian drones above his train, which had just passed through Ukrainian customs on its way to Poland on Sunday morning. He and other passengers were quickly evacuated. Not long after, he heard a huge explosion."

Petraeus told the outlet, "For those who have not been under fire, this was terrifying."

As for former UK PM Johnson, he condemned the attack but did not indicate that he thought he was being targeted. "What we can say for sure is that this is the kind of random and senseless attack Ukrainians are enduring every day – even on civilian railways," Johnson wrote on X. The particular train that he and other Western security officials were on was issued an evacuation order, but then soon after was allowed to proceed on its destination. 

Some pundits are pointing to a possible false flag scenario. It also could just be a strong 'warning' for from Moscow, after moving forward with strikes on 'decision-making centers' in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 14:25

Jeffries Refuses To Rule Out Trump Impeachment If Democrats Win House

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Jeffries Refuses To Rule Out Trump Impeachment If Democrats Win House

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday that Democrats have not ruled out another impeachment of President Donald Trump if they capture control of the House in November's midterm elections.

During an appearance on ABC's "This Week," host George Stephanopoulos asked the New York Democrat whether his party would pursue impeachment immediately after taking control of the chamber.

"No, we haven't ruled anything in and we haven't ruled anything out in terms of impeachment," Jeffries said.

Jeffries said Democrats would instead begin by investigating allegations of wrongdoing and allow the evidence to determine what action Congress should take.

"We've got to follow the facts, apply the law, be guided by the Constitution, and then let the chips fall where they may, in the best interests of the American people," he said.

Jeffries pointed to Reps. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., and Robert Garcia, D-Calif., who would be positioned to lead the powerful House Judiciary and Oversight committees if Democrats win the majority.

Trump has already predicted that Democrats would attempt to impeach him again if they take control of the House.

The House impeached Trump twice during his first term. The first impeachment came in 2019 over his dealings with Ukraine. The second followed the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The Senate acquitted Trump in both cases.

Democrats would gain significantly expanded investigative authority if they capture the House, including control of committee hearings and subpoenas.

Jeffries also outlined several legislative priorities Democrats would pursue if they take control, including efforts to reverse Trump's tariffs, end U.S. involvement in the war with Iran and restore enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.

"These are some of the things that I think we can begin to do," Jeffries said, adding that Democrats would pursue an aggressive legislative agenda throughout the next Congress.

Control of the House will be decided in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Republicans currently hold the majority, while Democrats are seeking the net gain of seats necessary to take control in January.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 14:10

Trump Says Meeting With Chinese Leader Will Cover 'Almost Everything'

Zero Hedge -

Trump Says Meeting With Chinese Leader Will Cover 'Almost Everything'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sept. 13 that he would discuss almost everything with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a planned meeting at the White House later this month.

Trump did not provide specifics but said his tariffs had kept Chinese vehicles out of the U.S. market.

"The tariff kept them out. I have a 100 percent tariff. From 100 to 150 percent," he told reporters aboard Air Force One, comparing the U.S. move with Europe, which he said was being decimated by Chinese cars.

Trump last week dismissed the possibility of allowing Chinese cars to be imported into the United States but indicated that he may be open to Chinese automakers building cars in the country, provided they hire American workers.

Earlier this month, a group representing most of the major automakers urged Congress to quickly pass legislation permanently barring Chinese vehicles from the U.S. market.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Honda, Stellantis, and others, called for passage of the bill by the end of December.

"Right now, Chinese automakers are dumping subsidized vehicles with connected software and hardware around the world," the group's CEO, John Bozzella, said in a letter to congressional leaders. "China is capturing market share in Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia, Mexico and South America with vehicles capable of collecting, processing and transmitting sensitive vehicle and consumer data to the Chinese Communist Party."

Trump also told reporters on Sept. 13 that he expects to reach an agreement for China to purchase Boeing aircraft during Xi's visit. China has previously agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes after the two leaders met in Beijing in May, but the deal has yet to be finalized.

"I get every deal," the president said.

When asked about reports alleging that Chinese entities may have supplied Iran with satellite imagery of U.S. airbases in Jordan, Trump said, "They basically do what we do."

It is unclear whether he plans to raise the issue during his meeting with Xi, but Trump said the Chinese leader has "behaved reasonably well."

"You know when they say that China spies on us, I say, you're right, and we spy on them, too," he said.

Xi was scheduled to visit the United States on Sept. 24. Trump formally invited Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, to the White House during his May visit to Beijing. The president said in July that he plans to discuss artificial intelligence with the Chinese leader.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on July 22 that he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Manila, the Philippines, to lay the groundwork for Xi's upcoming visit to the United States.

Rubio acknowledged the major differences between Washington and Beijing and emphasized that it is their job to manage them to ensure "they never get out of control."

"We're, obviously, always going to defend our national interest," he said at the time. "And I expect they'll do the same, as they define it. But I think there are some areas of potential cooperation."

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 13:35

Trump Says US Could Remain In Iran And Keep Oil, Similar To Deal With Venezuela

Zero Hedge -

Trump Says US Could Remain In Iran And Keep Oil, Similar To Deal With Venezuela

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Sept. 13 said the United States could ultimately remain in Iran and "keep the oil" in a similar manner to his administration's move to control some of Venezuela's oil reserves.

"We'll ultimately get out [of Iran], unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela," Trump said at the Trump International Golf Course in Ireland, adding that the U.S. revenue from Venezuela has "paid for the war many times."

The president did not elaborate on a possible oil agreement with Iran or whether he would be willing to deploy troops in the country. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sept. 13.

Just over six months ago, the United States began strikes against Iran in a bid to end the country's nuclear aspirations as Trump has repeatedly said Tehran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Iran has launched strikes on commercial oil vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which a significant portion of the world's traded oil passes, leading to spikes in gasoline and energy prices worldwide and in the United States.

On Sept. 12, the British military's UK Maritime Trade Organization said it received a report of an "incident" in the Hormuz Strait as a "vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile while transiting" the waterway. A fire broke out on the ship and local officials are moving to evacuate crew members, it said.

Speaking at the Irish Open golf championship, Trump also said that the price of gas would "drop like a rock" once the Iran war ended. He added that he believes the Iran war will end this year.

Trump said that he would only make the "right deal" and wouldn't do one that he believes wouldn't be good for U.S. interests while asserting that Iran was "calling constantly" for peace talks.

Earlier this year, the U.S. military launched an operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before extraditing him to the United States. He faces felony drug charges and pleaded not guilty in January.

The White House in August announced a deal with Venezuela under which the United States takes control of 65 billion barrels from the South American country's vast oil reserves.

"This deal is a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people," Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote in a post on X in late August. "It demonstrates how President Trump's bold foreign policy is driving America First wins: securing stable reserves and low-cost oil in our Hemisphere and lowering gas prices here at home."

Oil prices have remained relatively elevated in recent days amid strikes in Saudi Arabia. The price for both Brent crude and West Texas International barrels remained above $100 as of Sept. 13.

According to the American Automobile Association, the average gasoline price in the United States increased roughly 17 cents to $4.31 per gallon in the past seven days.

Saudi Arabia's energy ministry last week announced it was shutting down its East-West oil pipeline after it was attacked and as the Yemeni-based Houthi terrorist organization moved to capture cities closer to the Red Sea in recent days. The Houthis in the past week also launched strikes inside Saudi Arabia.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 12:40

Ukraine Pummels Black Sea Resort Near Putin's Villa With Air & Sea Drones

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine Pummels Black Sea Resort Near Putin's Villa With Air & Sea Drones

Ukraine sent some 400 drones across various parts of Russia and Crimea overnight, with UAV attacks having long been a nightly thing.

In this latest instance, the Black Sea resort city of Sochi suffered the most casualties, with five people - including a child - wounded in a drone attack. Several homes were also damaged in the assault.

The injuries in Sochi were due to "falling UAV debris" - local officials indicated Monday on Telegram. Sochi Mayor Andrei Proshunin later confirmed firefighters extinguished fires that resulted, with citizens being warned not to approach drone debris left from the attack.

Sochi has long been where President Putin has a sprawling vacation resort. He also used to frequently host foreign heads of state at the house.

The Telegraph reports that Putin's vacation residence may have been targeted in the overnight drone attack:

Ukraine launched strikes near Vladimir Putin’s seaside villa in the Black Sea resort of Sochi overnight, injuring five people. Footage posted online purported to show Ukrainian drones descending on the city, with large explosions and the thud of local air defence audible.

...Local Telegram channels reported strikes on an S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, many of which have come under fire in recent weeks after military intelligence found that the defensive systems were being repurposed to strike ground targets in Ukraine.

One channel claimed that drones had targeted Putin’s Bocharov Ruchey summer dacha, a coastal compound in a busy area of the city. The Russian president is believed to have largely stopped visiting the residence since it came within range of Kyiv’s drones.

The city mayor has ordered a temporary beach closure, also after last week sea drones unleashed even greater casualties and mayhem.

"Proshunin later announced the closure of Sochis beache’s due to the ongoing risk of drone strikes," Moscow Times writes.

The prior incident saw seaside resorts and nightlife venues specifically targeted. One regional outlet details:

Ukrainian sea drones — which Russia’s Defense Ministry calls “uncrewed boats” — struck the waterfront in Sochi on the evening of September 9. Twenty-eight people were injured, including two children, Krasnodar Krai’s operational headquarters reported. All those injured have received medical treatment; three adults and one child remain hospitalized.

The attack began around 9 p.m., just as singer Tatiana Bulanova was performing a concert at the Festivalny House of Culture on the waterfront. The concert was halted and the audience evacuated.

One local resident recounted what happened: “My wife was at the concert. During the evacuation, people were falling, running in panic. Explosions could be heard all around. She fell while running to the car. She was knocked down by the blast wave. You could really feel the shock wave after each explosion. They were very close.”

Ukraine has been seeking to impose a steep cost on the Russian population of late, hoping that it puts enough pressure on President Putin to come to the negotiating table while willing to compromise.

However, Russia's own ballistic missile and drone attacks have only intensified in response, with the southern port city of Odessa getting severely hit of late. Recently, a shopping center in Ukraine came under attack, resulting in a mass casualty event.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 12:20

Willy Wonka And The Compute Factories

Zero Hedge -

Willy Wonka And The Compute Factories

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Oil prices are rising again on news of the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline following drone strikes, and the Houthis’ seizure of strategic locations on the Red Sea coast.

Bond yields surged late last week on rising oil and inflation (and debt) concerns, while Asian equity indices and US equity futures are broadly in the red today. Geopolitical friction remains at the forefront of investor concerns as the Middle East and Eastern Europe simmer away, leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland plot the dissolution of the United Kingdom, and Canada hatches a cunning plan to avoid becoming the 51st US state by (in effect) becoming the 28th EU member state.

So, another quiet week ahead.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei caused a sensation over the weekend by publishing an essay arguing “we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models”. Amodei’s call quickly found support from Elon Musk and Sam Altman, erstwhile Arthur Slugworths to Amodei’s Willy Wonka. Strange bedfellows indeed.

Amodei opens his essay by extoling the transformational potential of AI to create a Utopian world of superabundance where most major diseases are a thing of the past, economic growth is greatly accelerated, and a new renaissance of democracy and freedom is forthcoming. Come with me and you’ll be in a world of pure imagination.

The vision then turns darker with Amodei arguing that AI capabilities are advancing too quickly for society to appropriately manage the risks. That’s a sentiment that his fellow tech leaders apparently share, with Musk in particular previously arguing that AI could prove more dangerous than nuclear weapons. Curiously, this places founders in the unusual position of not only agreeing with each other but also favoring tighter regulation for their own businesses with future growth throttled.

Amodei points particularly to the recent emergence of ‘recursive self-improvement’ –AI building AI – as a source of potential risk, particularly following the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident whereby swarms of AI agents went rogue and began conducting cybersecurity attacks on targets that no human had asked them to attack. For anyone that has seen the Terminator or Matrix films, or read Frankenstein, or the Bible, the idea of Creation rebelling against Creator with disastrous consequences is a well-worn fear.

Fear is a great motivator, but any good markets person knows that greed is too. It didn’t take long for the cynics to emerge with alternative theories as to why founders might like to see tighter regulation, international coordination, and a slower pace of development. One commentator translated Amodei’s call as an admission that open source models are competing AI margins to zero while CAPEX burn rates threaten viability. The solution: regulatory intervention to limit competition and maintain margins.

Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, David Sacks, said that “if the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down. I support your decision to be responsible.” However, he then went on to suggest that the founders’ motivations were less than altruistic, that China was unlikely to join any agreement to slow the pace of AI development, and that founders were effectively lobbying for regulatory capture. His message: if you want to slow the pace of development, just do it yourselves.

The point about China is an important one. In a world of geopolitical competition, games that require coordination for humanity to come out a winner are hard and suboptimal outcomes can be Nash equilibriums (just look at Javier Blas’s recent tweet about soaring coal demand).

AI is national security, and China’s regular provision of Sputnik moments like the release of DeepSeek’s R1 model in January 2025 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model in July this year have raised concerns that China is closing the gap in terms of the capabilities of frontier AI, at lower cost, and with open source models. Effectively, another Arthur Slugworth’s almost-as-good recipes (the model) have been made public, and that is a big problem for Willy Wonka (and also for Arthur Slugworth).

While calls from CEOs for regulation might be viewed as self-serving, the imperative for national governments to control AI should be sufficiently underscored by recent revelations from Anthropic that users in northern Yemen – home to the Houthis – tried to use Claude AI to develop advanced missiles, and that Iran had tried to use Claude to target American warships. There is a sense that a Pandora’s Box has been opened and that both the United States and China have an interest in forcing the lid back down to control access to such a potentially dangerous technology.

Izabella Kaminska argues that AI safety concerns are being proffered as a “credible off ramp from the hyper scaling narrative”, which she views as defunct since the release of Kimi K3. Emphasis shifts from the models themselves to the compute, power and chips used to run them. If AI models are Wonka and Slugworth’s increasingly commoditised recipes, the datacentres, energy sources and semiconductors are the factories used to convert recipe into product – and are the real strategic assets. Turns out real production can matter more than IP, who knew?

Kaminska argues that hyper scaling was never driven by expected demand, but by an arms race of sorts. The financial firepower to fund AI investments was determinative, but if the raison d’etre for hyperscaling disappeared in July, so did the need for immense private capital flows. Could we be approaching a scenario where US AI capabilities are brought under a kind of Manhattan Project where freed-up liquidity flows constitute the asymmetric information that Scott ‘I am the House’ Bessent has been warning markets about?

This week might provide some clues in that respect as the FOMC meets to set the Fed Funds rate. Following last week’s firmer than expected core CPI reading and two weeks of rising oil prices the markets are 87% priced for a hike. RaboResearch’s Fed watcher Philip Marey has recently updated our forecast to also predict a hike at this week’s meeting. Meanwhile, the FT reports that hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller (mentor to both Bessent and Fed Chair Warsh) recently told a closed audience that “given what’s going on in the economy and the capital spending boom and the war for capital, if anything, [bond yields seem] a little low”. Any indication that the war for capital might de-escalate would be a signal to pay close attention to!

Druckenmiller says that his fund has cut its AI investments to around 20% of previous levels, saying that “it has been an incredible ride on the whole AI thing... I think we’re getting late enough in the build-out that one has to start to worry a little”.

For his part, President Trump says that the pace of AI development should not slow down. Equity investors may be relieved to hear that, but given the geopolitical and bond market imperatives, and the increased prevalence of economic statecraft, perhaps they should pay some heed to other orange men with unusual hairstyles:

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-da
If you're not greedy, you will go far
You will live in happiness too
Like the Oompa, Loompa, doompa-dee-do

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 12:00

Costco Begins Rationing Kirkland Signature Motor Oil As Refined Crisis Spreads

Zero Hedge -

Costco Begins Rationing Kirkland Signature Motor Oil As Refined Crisis Spreads

Costco's Kirkland Signature motor oil has doubled in price, and customers now reportedly face a purchase limit as the Gulf energy conflict, combined with the Russia-Ukraine war, has sent the global refining market into a tailspin.

Auto news website The Auto Wire reports that a 10-quart package of Kirkland full-synthetic oil now costs about $58, up from around $30, with a new purchase limit of two packages per week.

Costco's online sales platform confirms an order limit: when attempting to order three packs, an alert message reads, "Item 997930 has a maximum order quantity of 2."

Another auto blog, MotorBiscuit, provided more detail on the refining crisis and its impact on the global liquids market:

The ongoing military entanglement with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have effectively choked off these crucial exports. To compound the supply chain disaster, the massive Pearl GTL facility in Qatar sustained heavy damage from Iranian airstrikes in March 2026, instantly crippling a major portion of global production for at least a year.

Refineries Chase 40-Year Profit Highs

Typically, when Middle Eastern supply lines fracture, South Korean refiners step in to pick up the slack. Unfortunately, those refiners are currently struggling to secure raw crude oil themselves.

Furthermore, the petroleum industry is aggressively shifting its manufacturing priorities. Right now, global profit margins for diesel and jet fuel have hit staggering 40-year highs. Motor oil, diesel, and aviation fuel all originate from the same barrels of raw crude. Given the choice between producing essential base oils for passenger cars or cashing in on incredibly lucrative aviation and commercial diesel markets, refiners are overwhelmingly choosing the latter.

This geopolitical squeeze is hitting at the exact worst time for everyday drivers. Today's highly stressed, turbocharged, small-displacement engines require incredibly sophisticated oil chemistries to prevent catastrophic failure and comply with strict environmental standards.

Because modern engines are so sensitive, automakers demand rigorous chemical testing and licensing. General Motors, for example, requires vendors to pay double licensing fees (both per product and per unit sold) just to print the "Dexos-approved" badge on their packaging. This certification appears directly on Costco's Kirkland brand.

Combine a fractured Middle Eastern supply chain, international refiners chasing diesel profits, and the expensive licensing fees required for modern engines, and you have the perfect storm for empty shelves.

It's not just motor oil. Households relying on heating oil face the risk of sharply higher bills as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. With the national average retail diesel at a record $6.23 a gallon Monday morning, the squeeze on distillate fuels and other refined fuels is causing a shock. However, electric vehicle owners are just sitting back, watching this all unfold. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 11:45

Trump Declares Ukraine, Russia Have Agreed To Halt All Attacks On Energy Targets

Zero Hedge -

Trump Declares Ukraine, Russia Have Agreed To Halt All Attacks On Energy Targets

Update(11:19)ET: Amid soaring national diesel products and painfully high prices at the pump, President Trump on Monday announced the Zelensky government has acceded to the US president's prior call to abstain from attacking diesel infrastructure in Russia. He has unveiled what he's presenting as a new Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.

Trump says "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/ Ukraine War, not Iran." Clearly high fuel prices are creating immense pressure within the GOP, and Trump is trying to essentially tweet his way out of this war-related mess...

DIESEL FUTURES PARE GAINS, TRADE NEAR $5.04/GAL

Diesel responded immediately...

And also crude...

*  *  *

The Kremlin has welcomed President Trump's weekend call for Ukraine to stop attacking Russian diesel supply and infrastructure sites. The somewhat surprise remarks which will only serve to further pressure the Zelensky government came when pressed by a reporter on Sunday. Trump responded by saying Zelensky "has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia."

The US president said at the sidelines of the Irish Open on Sunday, "There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel, because that’s hurting, that’s hurting the world" - adding that he indeed had spoken to the Ukrainian president about it.

"I've asked Zelensky not to hit the Russian refineries. Diesel is being driven up by the fact that it’s having a hard time coming out of Russia," Trump additionally stated. "That’s a case that hurts the world, and we’ve got to stop it."

On Monday, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked about Trump's words. "Of course, one can only welcome any call on the Kiev regime to stop strikes on civilian economic infrastructure," Peskov told a press briefing.

via Associated Press

The Kremlin official had been questioned on whether Putin views the US call to refrain from strikes on Russia's diesel-producing infrastructure a positive step toward a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.

"Any countries can contribute to a settlement in Ukraine by influencing Kiev and pushing it toward flexibility," Peskov said, leaving things somewhat vague. He said that disabling of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, which has reportedly knocked more than 4% of global supplies off the market, is cause of serious concern.

"The deterioration of the situation in oil markets cannot but cause concern among global economies," he emphasized. On that front, the Associated Press newly reports Monday:

A crucial Saudi oil pipeline hit in strikes will be mostly out of service for several weeks for repairs, reports AP citing officials

Specifically concerning the status of the 'special military operation' in Ukraine, the Putin spokesman described, "It is becoming increasingly clear to professionals, based on the dynamics at the front lines, that Russia is consistently moving toward achieving its goals in the special military operation."

He vowed: "The dynamics of advances at the front lines of the special military operation will continue; no one should have any doubts about that."

And he explained of the weekend New Delhi-hosted major BRICS summit, "Putin reacted positively to the readiness of the leaders of China and India to contribute to the Ukrainian settlement."

As for Ukraine, President Zelensky over the weekend pointed out that the country's own energy infrastructure has also subject of frequent attack by Russia.

"The Russians are burning warehouses with food and gas stations, pharmaceutical facilities and ordinary passenger trains, residential buildings and civilian businesses," Zelensky stated in a Sept.12 X post.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 11:19

Beijing Rejects Pause, Slams Dario's 'Fearmongering, Cold War Playbook'

Zero Hedge -

Beijing Rejects Pause, Slams Dario's 'Fearmongering, Cold War Playbook'

China's Foreign Ministry and state press had rejected the China provisions of Dario Amodei's essay calling for a 'pause' in AI development, while state security minister and President Xi Jinping laid out what Beijing wants instead.

On Saturday morning, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published We Must Pace the Frontier, an essay arguing that the industry must slow the rate at which it improves frontier models and asking Washington to help it do so. By Monday afternoon in Beijing, China's Foreign Ministry responded. 

The essay's three steps, are third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access inside the labs, which Anthropic committed to unilaterally; coordination among labs in democratic countries on safety standards and the pace of progress, which Amodei concedes needs a narrow antitrust waiver from the U.S. government; and, eventually, agreements with various governments, including China. It also asks Washington to keep the ban on advanced chips and chipmaking equipment, enforce it against smuggling and remote access to overseas data centers, crack down on distillation, prevent model-weight theft, and use the resulting three-to-five-year window to widen America's lead before any bargain is struck. Sam Altman said OpenAI would match the evaluator commitment. Elon Musk's reaction was three words: "Dario is right."

Amodei himself acknowledged the problem. On CBS on Sunday he called the possibility that China and other adversaries would not slow down the "toughest dilemma" in his proposal.

According to Xinhua, Beijing's Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Monday that the development of AI bears on the well-being of all humanity and that all parties should jointly promote its open and inclusive development for good and for all. He added: "Fearmongering, confrontation and vicious competition will only disrupt the process of global AI governance which serves no one's interest."

On Sunday evening Beijing time, a Global Times editorial admitted that sure - on the surface the essay appears to be a "rational statement" about global AI security. A closer reading, the paper said, showed it "packed with containment provisions targeting China" and, in essence, a "Cold War playbook" for the AI sector - and that excluding China from the global innovation system would increase, rather than reduce, the "trial-and-error costs and risks of loss of control" in global AI development. China's AI capabilities "have long ceased to be a variable that can be excluded," reads the editorial. 

Other Chinese notables chimed in as well. Xiang Ligang, a telecom and technology policy commentator, called Amodei's rhetoric inappropriate, groundless and hostile. After all, the 'pacing' would ultimately require China's cooperation while advocating restrictions on chips, computing power and models to slow China down. Xiao Qian, vice dean of Tsinghua's Institute for AI International Governance, attributed the China provisions to commercial pressure: Anthropic's closed-model approach is competing with Chinese open-source models on cost, performance and the developer ecosystem, and restrictions would protect its position. Liu Shaoshan of the Shenzhen Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics for Society, who the paper says previously worked with Amodei, added that framing AI as decisive for national security turns an AI company into "strategic infrastructure," which raises barriers to entry and valuations at the same time.

On Wednesday, Beijing's commerce ministry rejected a joint FBI, NSA and CISA advisory that accused Chinese developers of "aggressive, malicious" efforts to distill capabilities from Claude and GPT, calling the accusation "groundless in fact and without basis in law," distillation a normal technical and commercial practice, and the advisory further proof that Washington is "seeking to monopolize computing power."

Amodei's essay, published three days later, asks the U.S. government to crack down on the same practice in the same document that asks the industry to slow down for the sake of humanity. 

Trump Responds

Asked on Thursday in Dallas whether he had any concern about existential risk from AI, Trump said, "No, I don't have any." On Sunday, speaking to reporters at his Doonbeg resort during the Irish Open, he said the United States is "leading China in AI" and intends to stay there because "whoever wins AI, wins." Guardrails were possible, he said; the dire warnings came from "negative forces" raising things he insists will not happen. And on Monday, Trump slammed "perfect little angel" Dario over his screed.

House Speaker Mike Johnson made the same argument in institutional form: an emergency session to regulate AI would cost the United States the race with China.

The American Split

The domestic disagreement was already on the record. Barack Obama, at a Manhattan fundraiser on Thursday whose transcript his office released to the New York Times on Sunday, told House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to make AI a governing issue if Democrats take the House. The technology, he said, is "moving very fast in private hands," and he positioned himself as neither an accelerationist nor a doomer.

David Sacks, the former White House AI czar, told Amodei and Altman in a Saturday-night post to go ahead and slow down if their unreleased models warrant it, but without the antitrust waiver, the regulatory approval process or METR, which he called intertwined with Anthropic's investors and staff. Demanding a preferred framework as the price of restraint, he wrote, "will look like blackmail of the public and the political system." China, he added, was "very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know." Beijing confirmed the point two days later.

Beijing's Own Concerns

The most revealing document out of China this weekend wasn't the response to Dario. State Security Minister Chen Yixin's article, published Sunday in China Cyberspace, the Cyberspace Administration's journal, lists six categories of AI risk and, per Bloomberg, makes no mention of the Anthropic and OpenAI calls to slow down.

The first risk is regime security: "hostile forces" using deepfakes and bot networks to wage "cognitive warfare." The second is cyber offense, and here Chen named Anthropic's Claude Mythos and OpenAI's GPT-5.5-Cyber as systems that sharply raise the efficiency of vulnerability discovery and malware development and threaten China's critical information infrastructure.

Chen describes AI as "a new arena for strategic rivalry among major powers," warns that countries with an AI advantage may invoke national security to impose technology controls and build closed ecosystems, and calls for powers to "resolutely resist hegemonism, technological barriers, and exclusive blocs." None of this means Beijing dismisses loss-of-control risk: its cyberspace regulator has carried an explicit loss-of-control scenario in its safety framework since 2024, and Xi said at the World AI Conference in July that AI should "always remain under human control."

Chen's focus is on who controls the systems, who can weaponize them, and who is denied the hardware to build them, not about whether the frontier should move more slowly.

Then There's Xi

Xi's own contribution came at the BRICS summit in New Delhi on Sunday. China will take the lead in establishing a BRICS AI Open Source Zone to promote cooperation on large language models, AI training and an open AI ecosystem, he said. The logic is to build with the Global South and resist a ruleset written in San Francisco and enforced through American export licenses.

Trump and Xi are due to meet in Washington on September 24, with AI governance expected on the agenda.

Reuters reported that officials were preparing a separate mid-September AI-safety dialogue led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, covering AI-directed cyberattacks, distillation and the prospect of a Chinese model with Mythos-level cyber capabilities; a White House official said "there is currently no planned AI-related meeting in mid-September." Lizzi Lee of the Asia Society Policy Institute framed Beijing's question: if Washington wants cooperation on frontier safety while restricting China's access to frontier compute, "what exactly does that cooperation look like?"

As we laid out Saturday: Chinese open-weight models from DeepSeek, Alibaba's Qwen, Moonshot's Kimi, MiniMax and Zhipu are downloadable, forkable and far cheaper to run, with cumulative downloads the Global Times puts above 10 billion. Export controls and evaluator regimes govern American labs and American hardware. They do not retrieve weights that have already been distributed. Amodei's essay does not pretend otherwise; it is why the proposal climbs to a negotiation with Beijing, and why he ranks a treaty-style limit on recursive self-improvement as "difficult but just on the edge of being possible." That third step requires a partner. As of Monday, the partner has said what it thinks of the first two.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 11:15

Another Judge Blocks USPS From Implementing New Mail-In Ballot Rule

Zero Hedge -

Another Judge Blocks USPS From Implementing New Mail-In Ballot Rule

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on Sept. 13 that blocks the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) from enforcing its requirements to tighten mail-in voting rules.

Under the rule, states must supply the agency with lists of mail ballot recipients, and all outbound and return ballot envelopes must bear unique barcodes. It also allows the Postal Service to refuse to deliver ballots that do not comply with the new standards.

In a 24-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said the Postal Service had likely exceeded the authority granted by Congress when issuing the rule. He said that the government had failed to provide any evidence that halting the USPS mail-in voting rule would result in significant fraud in the upcoming elections.

"The key portions of the rule exceed any conception of the outer bounds of these authorities," Nichols said in the ruling.

"Nothing in the Postal Reorganization Act authorizes the Postal Service to impose new election procedures on state election officials, to create a data collection system for mail-in and absentee voters, or to refuse the transmission of lawful mail because it fails to meet these data collection requirements."

The Postal Service issued the final rule on Aug. 21 to implement an executive order President Donald Trump signed in March. In the order, Trump wrote that the federal government had a duty to maintain public confidence in election outcomes and that additional measures were needed to enhance election integrity through U.S. mail.

The Trump administration previously said the executive order would help to keep federal elections honest.

The Department of Justice argued on Aug. 31 that the USPS rule is "a regulation of the U.S. mail, and a modest one at that - not a federal takeover of election administration by the Postal Service."

The judge on Sunday also found that the rule would increase the risk that a significant number of otherwise appropriate absentee or mail-in ballots would not be counted in the upcoming elections.

"The harm of untransmitted ballots - both to voters and candidates - is irreversible, because 'once the election occurs, there can be no do-over and no redress,'" Nichols said.

The Epoch Times reached out to USPS for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

A federal appeals court on Sept. 10 declined to pause an injunction issued Sept. 4 by Judge Indira Talwani of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, which extended a temporary restraining order issued on Aug. 27 that halted key parts of the Postal Service's final rule.

The Supreme Court is currently considering the government's appeal of the order.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 11:00

$6 Diesel Flashes 2008 Warning As Energy Shock, AI Slowdown Fears Fuel Perfect Storm

Zero Hedge -

$6 Diesel Flashes 2008 Warning As Energy Shock, AI Slowdown Fears Fuel Perfect Storm

As of Monday morning, AAA's national average retail diesel price topped $6.23 a gallon as a global refining crisis sparked by the Russia-Ukraine war and compounded by the Gulf conflict sent the price of the most critical fuel powering the industrial world skyrocketing.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned Monday that "$6 diesel echoes 2008 gasoline shock."

"Commodity spikes tend to sow the seeds of their own reversal, and diesel's first-ever surge above $6 a gallon may echo gasoline's 2008 experience. The US daily average gasoline price, at roughly $4.30 on Sept. 11, is only about 4% above its 2008 peak, which helped fuel the Great Recession," McGlone wrote in a note.

He added, "Elevated stock market valuations could add to the vulnerability."

On top of a fuel price shock, tech is sliding Monday morning amid fears of an AI slowdown (read the morning note). 

McGlone's warning comes as Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, pointed out at the end of last week that some gas pumps across California hit a record $9.99 per gallon for the industrial fuel.

Any sustained diesel price shock can push inflation higher while slowing economic growth, creating a stagflationary squeeze. Higher energy costs raise production expenses and reduce households' purchasing power, also denting consumer sentiment. 

The global refining crisis has drawn the White House's attention. President Trump on Sunday called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt strikes on Russian diesel infrastructure.

"Zelenskyy has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia," Trump told reporters at the Irish Open yesterday.

"We spoke to Mr. Zelenskyy about it. There are plenty of other targets. Don't hit diesel fuel, because that's hurting, that's hurting the world," the president said.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is considering how to use the Defense Production Act to expand US oil refining capacity as the Iran conflict drives up fuel prices.

Brent crude traded around $109 a barrel this morning. Last week, the IEA published a report warning of potential demand destruction for industrial fuels. US diesel crack spread remains above $110 a barrel. 

S&P Global Energy warned Thursday that it does not forecast Middle East crude production to return to prewar levels by the end of 2027.

Citi analysts warned Friday that soaring commodity costs and diesel prices will weigh on many of the companies in their coverage universe through the first half of next year:

In 2025, commodity costs were mildly inflationary except for select inputs such as coffee, gas, and tallow which up meaningful +DD%. However, in 2026, commodity inflation has reaccelerated with acute pressure on direct and indirect energy-based products driven by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East including oil, resins, and diesel/freight costs. Additionally, prices for commodities impacted by tariffs and the global trade dynamics have also increased in 2026 including in aluminum and steel. Many of our companies have highlighted these input cost headwinds, which are pressuring margins this year and which we suspect will remain headwinds into at least 1H'27.

In March, JPMorgan's head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva, outlined six policy levers the Trump administration could pull to contain oil prices. Some, including Jones Act waivers and Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, have already been used. Other options include export restrictions and waiving federal fuel taxes.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 10:40

Trump Says He Might Release More 9/11 Records

Zero Hedge -

Trump Says He Might Release More 9/11 Records

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Sept. 13 he might release records related to the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

"I'm going to look at it when I get back," he told reporters in Ireland, after being asked about recent requests from families of people who perished in the attacks.

A nephew of Lisa Marie Terry, who was in the North Tower at the World Trade Center when it was struck by one of the planes hijacked by Islamic terrorists, was among those who recently called on Trump to declassify records related to the attacks on the center and the Pentagon.

"For 25 years, the deep state has hidden the truth about what happened that day 25 years ago," he said during a reading of the names of the victims in New York City on Sept. 11.

"President Trump, you are our last hope. Release the unredacted files that implicate Saudi Arabia while what's left of the victims' families are still alive to see it."

Terry Strada, whose husband, Tom Strada, died in the attacks, said during the same event that past administrations have chosen "to protect the Saudis instead of standing with the 9/11 families" and urged Trump to take action.

Fifteen of the 19 hijackers came from Saudi Arabia, according to the FBI. Some of the families have sued Saudi Arabia, alleging it is liable because officials supported Al Qaeda in the time leading up to the attacks.

A federal judge in 2025 rejected Saudi Arabia's motion to dismiss the case, concluding there was evidence at that stage that two Saudi Arabian officials assisted the hijackers and that the employees were acting within the scope of their employment.

Lawyers for Saudi Arabia argued that the nation was partnered with the United States against terrorism, Al Qaeda, and its founder, Osama bin Laden, in the 1990s. They disputed allegations that the two Saudi officials knowingly assisted the hijackers as part of a government effort.

President Joe Biden, while in office, ordered the declassification of some records related to 9/11, including a summary of an FBI report from 2016 that listed some Saudi nationals as having connections to 9/11 hijackers.

The Trump administration on Sept. 11 released declassified records showing multiple presidents were warned that Bin Laden was plotting to hijack aircraft and carry out an attack inside the United States, as well as interviews conducted by the 9/11 Commission with top officials, including former President Bill Clinton.

New York City officials also recently made public thousands of documents related to 9/11, including memoranda from city officials discussing their worries about air quality in lower Manhattan in the wake of the attacks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 10:25

Key Events This Week: Fed, BOJ And BOE; Also Retail Sales, Import Prices And Bessent

Zero Hedge -

Key Events This Week: Fed, BOJ And BOE; Also Retail Sales, Import Prices And Bessent

It's a bumper week for central bank decisions, with the Fed (Wednesday), BoE (Thursday) and BoJ (Friday) all meeting. Central banks aside, key data releases include US retail sales (Wednesday) and industrial production (Friday), UK inflation (Wednesday) and labor market data (Tuesday), economic activity in China (tomorrow), and inflation and trade in Japan (Friday and Wednesday respectively). Other events include the annual testimony of the US Treasury Secretary namely Bessent (tomorrow), and the State of the Union address in Europe (Wednesday).

Delving into more detail now, DB's Jim Reid writes that the main event for markets will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Deutsche economists have long expected a 25bp rate hike with the market now at 87% this morning up from around 35% two Friday's ago just before Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Such a move would take the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. DB economists believe the accompanying projections are likely to show a somewhat stronger growth outlook alongside still-elevated inflation. They have also added an extra hike in March to their forecast which now makes it 75bps of hikes over the next 7 months. A big focus will be Warsh's press conference and how he squares the circle between a dislike of forward guidance and calming markets which are baying for more info.  

Friday’s inflation data strengthened the case for action this week. Core CPI rose by 0.29% in August, a touch above expectations and up from 0.22% in July. The details were also firm, with notable strength in wireless services, airfares and lodging-away-from-home prices. Meanwhile, last Thursday’s PPI report contained hawkish elements, including stronger hospital and international airfare prices. Combining the latest CPI and PPI data, DB economists estimate August core PCE increased by 0.27%, a pace they do not view as consistent with sufficient progress back towards the Fed’s inflation target.

Attention will now turn to incoming US activity data. Tomorrow, markets will receive Treasury Secretary Bessent’s annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. On Wednesday, August US retail sales are released and economists expect a rebound to +0.8% month-on-month, following July’s -0.6% decline. They also forecast ex-auto sales at +0.5% and retail control sales at +0.4%, arguing that July’s weakness looked more like a temporary pause in consumer spending than the start of a broader slowdown. On Friday, industrial production is due and economists expect growth to edge up to +0.3% from +0.2% previously.

Looking beyond the US, the BoE announces its latest policy decision on Thursday. DB economists expect Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%, with a 6-3 voting split, and continue to see the MPC remaining relatively cautious compared with some other major central banks. However, the bond market and energy moves at the end of the week make it a closer call than it was, with futures pricing in a 23% probability of a move, up from under 10% early last Thursday. Before that, UK labor market data are released tomorrow, while August CPI is due on Wednesday. Economists expect headline inflation to rise to 3.04% YoY, while core CPI eases slightly to 2.53% YoY. UK retail sales, together with the GfK consumer confidence survey, follow on Friday.

In Asia, the BoJ concludes its meeting on Friday. DB's economists expect a 25bp rate hike (futures price in a 98% probability now), and argue that external considerations, including pressure for greater FX stability, are likely to be at least as important as domestic economic fundamentals in driving the decision. Japan also releases trade data and core machine orders on Wednesday, followed by national CPI on Friday, where DB economists expect core inflation excluding fresh food to remain at 1.8% YoY.

China’s August activity indicators are released tomorrow. DB economists expect industrial production growth to accelerate to 5.0% YoY from 4.5%, while retail sales and fixed-asset investment should also improve. Elsewhere, Germany’s ZEW survey is due tomorrow, while the ECB publishes its consumer expectations survey on Friday.

On the political front, the European Commission President delivers the annual State of the Union address on Wednesday, setting out priorities for the year ahead. Finally, the NATO’s Military Committee Conference takes place in Copenhagen at the end of the week.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day recap of the week's main events:

Monday September 14

  • Data: Japan July capacity utilisation, Canada August CPI, July manufacturing sales
  • Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel and Cipollone speak

Tuesday September 15

  • Data: US September Empire manufacturing index, China August retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, UK July average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, August jobless claims change, Germany August wholesale price index, September Zew survey, Italy July trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone September Zew survey, July trade balance, Canada August existing home sales, July wholesale sales ex petroleum
  • Central banks: ECB’s Cipollone and Reinesch speak
  • Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)
  • Other: Annual testimony of the Secretary of the Treasury on the state of the international financial system before the House Financial Services Committee

Wednesday September 16

  • Data: US September NAHB housing market index, New York Fed services business activity, August retail sales, import price index, export price index, July business inventories, total net TIC flows, UK August CPI, RPI, PPI, July house price index, Japan August trade balance, July core machine orders, Eurozone July industrial production, Canada August housing starts, July building permits
  • Central banks: Fed’s decision, ECB’s Vujcic speaks, BoC’s summary of deliberations
  • Other: European Commission President von der Leyen President delivers the State of the Union address to the European Parliament

Thursday September 17

  • Data: US September Philadelphia Fed business outlook, August housing starts, building permits, pending home sales, initial jobless, Canada August industrial product price index, raw materials price index, July international securities transactions, New Zealand Q2 GDP
  • Central banks: BoE’s decision, ECB’s Lane and Rehn speak
  • Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $19bn)

Friday September 18

  • Data: US August industrial production, capacity utilisation, leading index, UK September GfK consumer confidence, August retail sales, Japan August national CPI, Germany August PPI, Italy July current account balance, Eurozone July ECB current account, construction output
  • Central banks: BoJ’s decision, ECB’s consumer expectations survey
  • Other: NATO’s Military Committee Conference (Sep. 18-19)

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the import prices report — because of its potential implications for core PCE — and the retail sales report on Wednesday. The September FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM.

 Monday, September 14 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, September 15 

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, September (consensus 15.0, last 20.6)

Wednesday, September 16 

  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, August (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last -0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, August (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.3%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, August (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.2%); Core retail sales, August (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.4%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.6% in August (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA). Our forecast in part reflects a 0.4pp boost from a rebound in the nonstore retailers category, which was depressed in July by an earlier-than-usual Amazon Prime Day. (Amazon Prime Day is normally conducted in July—and the seasonal factors expect high July sales as a result—but was held in June this year). We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.6%, reflecting higher gasoline prices and auto sales but limited growth in food services and building materials sales.
  • 08:30 AM Import price index, August (consensus +0.5%, last -0.4%): The import prices report contains the remaining source data relevant to estimating August core PCE: the import price index for air passenger fares. Based on the details of last week’s CPI and PPI reports, we currently estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.26% in August, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.16% after accounting for our forecast of the revisions that will result from the methodological changes that will be implemented with the August PCE report.
  • 10:00 AM Business inventories, July (consensus +0.8%, last flat)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, September (consensus 34, last 35)
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, September 15-16 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, the FOMC is likely to raise the funds rate to 3.75-4.00%. Although the August CPI report had little impact on our inflation view, it pushed market pricing of a hike to nearly 90%, high enough that the FOMC will likely want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold. We continue to expect two cuts in 2027 but now expect them in September and December (vs. June and December previously) and have raised our forecast for the terminal rate to 3.25-3.5% (vs. 3-3.25% previously). We suspect that the FOMC will want to nudge the market away from pricing an October hike too confidently but will not do it in the statement. Instead, Chairman Warsh would likely hint in his press conference at waiting a bit longer to collect more information before deciding on further steps. The key question for the meeting is whether the median dot will show one hike or two in 2026. We expect a 10-8 majority to show one hike because some participants might be ambivalent about the first hike and some might want to avoid pushing market expectations any higher. 

Thursday, September 17 

  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, September (GS 30.0, consensus 32.1, last 47.4)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 12 (GS 195k, consensus 208k, last 206k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 5 (consensus 1,780k, last 1,774k): We estimate that initial claims declined by 11k to 195k in the week ended September 12, reflecting difficulties seasonally adjusting around the Labor Day holiday, which occurred relatively late this year.
  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, August (GS +8.9%, consensus +6.9%, last -12.4%); Building permits, August (consensus -1.5%, last +4.3%):  We forecast that housing starts increased by 8.9%, primarily reflecting significant increases in building permits last month. 
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, August (GS -2.0%, consensus flat, last -2.3%)

Friday, September 18 

  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Manufacturing production, August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Capacity utilization, August (GS 76.4%, consensus 76.4%, last 76.3%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.4% in August, largely reflecting strong auto and electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization edged up to 76.4%.
  • 09:30 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will deliver a speech on stress testing in London. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
  • 11:45 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on payments and banking at the Independent Community Bankers of Colorado Annual Convention. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On August 4, Schmid said that “inflation has been too high across a broad-based and growing cross-section of goods and services.” He further explained on August 27 that he believes interest rates “might be accommodative on the short end” and that he likely would have dissented at the July FOMC meeting.

Source: DB, Goldman, BOfA

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 10:15

US Energy Sec. Wright Says Saudi's Critical East-West Oil Pipeline Will Restart "Very Soon"

Zero Hedge -

US Energy Sec. Wright Says Saudi's Critical East-West Oil Pipeline Will Restart "Very Soon"

Summary:

  • AP News Says East-West Pipeline Fix 3-5 Weeks 
  • US Energy Sec. Wright Tells BBG TV East-West Pipeline Will Be Online "Very Soon"
  • Oil Surges As Saudi Pipeline Crisis Puts 4% Of Global Supply At Risk; Bernstein Warns Of $150 Crude
Wright Tries To Calm Energy Markets 

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright joined Bloomberg TV to calm energy markets after last week's drone attack hit a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, prompting its immediate shutdown. The pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and transports crude to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export terminal.

Wright said the pipeline could resume operations "very soon" and that he had been in close contact with his Saudi counterpart.

"I might have more of a timeframe tomorrow," Wright said, adding that further clarity would emerge in the days ahead.

Wright also said more than 12 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz last night, putting the seven-day average above 10 million barrels a day.

AP News reported that flows through the pipeline could resume in three to five weeks.

Oil Surges As Saudi Pipeline Crisis Puts 4% Of Global Supply At Risk; Bernstein Warns Of $150 Crude

Brent crude futures jumped overnight after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks last week, threatening a critical route for bypassing the highly contested Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and a loss of what could amount to 4% of global supply. 

The global oil benchmark rose as much as 3.7% to above $108 a barrel before trimming gains to $107.70 by 6:00 a.m. ET, while WTI futures traded around $103.

Riyadh described the shutdown as precautionary but gave no timetable for restarting the pipeline, which can transport upwards of 7 million barrels a day.

New geospatial intelligence shows what appears to be high-resolution satellite imagery of the aftermath of the drone attack that destroyed pumping infrastructure. Vantor produced this satellite imagery and shared it on X via The Hormuz Letter.

UBS energy expert Dominic Ellis summarized the weekend and overnight events unfolding across the Gulf region:

Brent has risen over $107/b on reports planned talks between Iran and GCC leaders on establishing a safe route through the Strait of Hormuz have been postponed indefinitely, and following reports Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline following attacks late last week.

The pipeline, with capacity of 7mb/d, had played an important role in re-routing oil away from the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of the pipeline's closure on Red Sea exports (combined with recent Houthi efforts to disrupt Red Sea flows) will continue to support oil prices for the foreseeable future.

Near-term impact on energy equities is positive – the UBS team flagged 40% upside to consensus 3Q earnings earlier this month (with refining-leveraged names like Repsol, Galp and OMV having 80-90% upside), and while buy-side numbers have likely responded to rapidly-changing macro conditions more frequently than those on the sell-side, I still believe market-wide caution on the sector means there is upside to expectations. 

Saudi oil traders told Reuters on Sunday that if the East-West pipeline is not restarted promptly, then Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for Red Sea exports. 

More color per the outlet:

Sources that spoke to Reuters gave varying estimates, with ​one saying the damage could take as long as five to six weeks to repair, while another said it could be fixed sooner ​and could resume pumping partially while repairs are ongoing.

Saudi Arabia's government media office and energy ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.For the past six months, the pipeline running through the desert across the Arabian Peninsula has spared Saudi Arabia from the brunt of the impact of the ​wartime shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that has crippled exports from its neighbours.

The world's biggest exporter has used the pipeline to ​reroute around 4 million barrels per day — around 4% of global supply — to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.But with the pipeline out ‌of service, ⁠Yanbu now has stocks to maintain exports for just five to seven days, according to three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports.Saudi Arabia also has stocks to supply customers for several days from Egypt's ports of Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, a fourth source said.

Yanbu storage capacity stands at around 35 million barrels, according to industry estimates, with Ain Sukhna and ​Sidi Kerir able to store 18 ​million and 20 million barrels ⁠respectively.Stocks are not full and will ultimately run out without the east-west pipeline resuming operations, the four sources said.Saudi oil supply has already fallen to a more than three-decade low in August on reduced ​flows via Hormuz and the Red Sea, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.World oil supply ​will decline this year by ⁠5.7 million bpd, or about 6%, the IEA, which coordinates Western energy policies, said.In addition to the attack on the pipeline, Houthi fighters in Yemen who have threatened Saudi oil shipments seized an island on Friday in the mouth of the Red Sea

Gulf developments over the weekend prompted Bernstein analysts Neil Beveridge and Brian Ho to warn that Brent could rally to between $120 and $150 a barrel as East-West pipeline disruptions collide with ongoing troubles along the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea.

Beveridge described the market as "chronically undersupplied" and said their existing $90 Brent forecast for 2026 had been "overtaken by events."

Combined flows through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal remain below 7 million barrels a day, compared with roughly 20 million before the conflict, according to Bloomberg.

One of the biggest restraints on crude prices this summer has been the 5 million-barrel-a-day reduction in Chinese imports. But analysts said that decline partly reflects Beijing tapping its estimated 1.5 billion barrels of SPR. Imports are now recovering and bidding up oil prices around the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 09:36

"Politically, There's No Viable Way Out Of This": Schiff Warns Of "Dangerous Feedback Loop"

Zero Hedge -

"Politically, There's No Viable Way Out Of This": Schiff Warns Of "Dangerous Feedback Loop"

Authored by SchiffGold via SchiffGold,

On Thursday, Peter joined host Danny on CapitalCosm to unpack the deepening cracks in the US debt market and what they mean for the dollar, oil, and the political landscape heading into 2026. He walks through weak Treasury demand, the fragile yen carry trade, and why "growing our way out of debt" remains a fantasy, before turning to how inflation is set to reshape the midterms and why the next Fed chair will likely follow the same inflationary playbook as his predecessors.

Peter starts with a recent Treasury auction that barely registered a ripple in the bond market, even though it revealed just how little appetite exists for US government debt. He explains that today's yields simply don't compensate investors for inflation risk over the long haul:

But the bottom line is, I mean, $6 billion is nothing. There's so much debt out there that nobody wants because the yields are not high enough to offset what you're gonna lose to inflation over the course of the maturity of these 10 year to 30 year US Treasuries. I mean, I know that 4.85, maybe that sounds like a high rate based on what we've had since the 2008 financial crisis. But prior to that crisis, this was not a high rate. And rates should be much higher now than they were pre 2008 because back then we had a fraction of the debt that we have now.

From there, Peter turns to Japan, where the yen's volatility threatens to upend one of the world's most important funding trades. He describes a dangerous feedback loop where currency moves in either direction could trigger a wave of Treasury selling:

Because if the yen keeps falling, that puts more pressure on Japan to sell treasuries to buy yen. So, best it is hoping that the yen rises so that the Japanese don't have to sell those treasuries. But if the yen keeps rising, that blows up the yen carry trade. And then a lot of other owners of US Treasuries are gonna be selling. And owners of other US dollar assets that were purchased with the borrowed yen that they're gonna be repaying if they're getting hit by a stronger yen.

Zooming out from the mechanics of the bond market, Peter addresses the political fantasy that America can simply expand its way out of its debt burden. He notes that this promise has been recycled for decades without ever coming true, and that Washington's newest hope rests on artificial intelligence delivering an economic miracle:

Politically, there's no viable way out of this other than to grow our way out. And the problem is they've been talking about growing our way out of the debt for 40 or 50 years. This is not new and we haven't done it. The problem keeps getting bigger and bigger because the debt grows faster than the economy. Now, they're hoping for a miracle with AI - that maybe AI is a game changer and we may grow the economy faster than the debt.

Peter then shifts to the political fallout of rising prices, arguing that inflation will flip the script for the 2026 midterms. Where Democrats bore the blame for the cost of living crisis in 2024, he expects Republicans to take the hit this time around:

In 2024, it was Biden and the Democrats, so that was easy for the Republicans. But the Republicans now own the economy, and they own the prices, especially when the Democrats can point to the tariffs, can point to the Iran war, right, as other factors that are contributing to the cost of living crisis, and that would be accurate.

Turning to commodities, Peter predicts that a weakening dollar will send energy prices sharply higher in the years ahead. He points to past oil spikes as a benchmark for where prices could realistically head next:

I think oil prices are headed higher, especially when the dollar really starts to tank, which it will. And so I think oil got to $140 a barrel in 2011. It was $100 a barrel in 2008. We're still significantly below that. I think we're gonna hit $200 a barrel on the price of oil in the next few years.

Peter closes by addressing speculation over the next Federal Reserve chair, arguing that regardless of who takes the job, the incentives always point toward the same outcome. He explains why inflation isn't an accident but a deliberate policy choice that every Fed chair, present and future, keeps making:

He said inflation is a choice, absolutely. All the Fed, all the former Fed chairs from Greenspan have chosen inflation. And Warsh is gonna make the same choice for the exact same reasons. Because the alternative is political suicide. They won't do it. Because it means we have to bite the bullet and pay the piper.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 09:05

2026 Barron’s Top 100 RIA List

The Big Picture -

 

 

For the second time in as many years, RWM made the Barron’s Top 100 RIA List.

What makes this year’s list especially interesting is both its focus on private equity’s entry into the advisor space — and our decision to avoid that approach.

Follow our history from the original announcement of the firm’s launch, through today, and it’s obvious we were built differently from the start. Any finance shop that came about out of frustration with how Wall Street managed money was not going to take the usual path.

We began with a fierce commitment to the Fiduciary standard. It was genuinely shocking to me that this was not the default setting for brokers or other wealth managers. Making that commitment means we could never cede control of the firm to any part of an industry that is as hyper-focused on profits at any cost (as parts of PE has been).

Everybody in our space is familiar with PE-funded roll-ups that became Franken-firms; we’ve all heard way too many stories about PE-funded acquisitions leading to bad outcomes. It’s not just the fiduciary standard that suffers; there have been aggressive contracts, threats of and actual litigation, and structural changes that changed the vibe of the firm. On the investing side, we see too many pricey, underperforming Alts, annuities, house products, etc. jammed into accounts. But for the outside investor, none of this would occur.

We were unwilling to accept the terms and conditions that came along with a pile of PE capital. And, we didn’t need the capital. Other than our purchase of FutureAdvisor (now Good Advice) from BlackRock, we have grown organically in the mid-double digits.

I am thrilled to be on the Barron’s Top 100 RIA list for the second year in a row. We expect to keep moving up that list until we are in the top half, quartile, and decile over the next decade. And the plan is to do it organically, no strings attached…

 

 

Previously:
RWM Makes Barron’s Top 100 RIA Firms! (September 15, 2025)

Succession (January 30, 2026)

 

 

Barron’s:

Our 11th annual ranking of independent advisory companies is based on assets managed by the firms, growth, technology spending, succession planning, and other metrics. Barron’s is ranking the largest registered investment advisor firms separately from its broader RIA ranking. Our 2026 mega RIAs each manage over $120 billion in assets, a 33% increase from last year, and staff over 1,000 people. Collectively, the nine firms represent nearly half of the total assets of all ranked firms.

The post 2026 Barron’s Top 100 RIA List appeared first on The Big Picture.

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