• Grievance Poisoning in the First Degree: Nolan on the political economy of resentment — who cultivates it, who profits, and who pays. Is “I am so great” an actual philosophy? (How Things Work)

America the Undammed: More miles of the country’s rivers were reconnected last year thanks to dam removals than at any other time in history. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/climate/america-the-undammed.html

US science after a year of Trump: A series of graphics reveals how the Trump administration has sought historic cuts to science and the research workforce. https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-026-00088-9/index.html

Organic Intellectuals and Toilet-Paper Fire: “All you had to do was pay us enough to fucking live.” https://www.un-diplomatic.com/p/organic-intellectuals-and-toilet?hide_intro_popup=true

• New panels produce hydrogen fuel using only water, sunlight and no electricity: This grid-independent system eliminates the need for traditional electrolyzers in green hydrogen production.   https://interestingengineering.com/energy/panels-produce-hydrogen-fuel-water-sunlight

 

 

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

•

•

• Half of US Home Prices Are at All-Time Highs. Half Are Underwater Since 2022: Half of the country had a real housing recession that the national index hid. One variable explains why. The K Strikes again!   https://blog.epbresearch.com/p/half-of-us-home-prices-are-at-all

• AI isn’t coming for your job. It’s coming for your mind: AI isn’t just changing what we do, it’s rewiring our brains as we use it, just like literacy did. We’re trading deep thinking for quick answers without realising the cost to memory and judgment. The people who thrive won’t be those who use AI most, but those who can still think without it. Baillie Gifford on the cognitive offloading already happening at scale and what it might cost us. The investment angle is interesting; the bigger point is worth sitting with. (Baillie Gifford)

• How a Job at OpenAI Became the Greatest Lottery Ticket of the AI Boom: Employees waited two years to sell their shares. Then, the company let them unload $30 million. https://www.wsj.com/tech/openai-employee-stock-sales-71ed10bd

• America’s biggest career hurdle: being a daughter: On the unpaid caregiving tax — disproportionately borne by daughters — and what it costs in retirement savings. A real number, finally being measured. Millennial daughters are depleting their savings to care for aging boomer parents (Business Insider)

• At Gawker, They Battled a Billionaire. 10 Years Later, the Scars Are Still Healing: Ten years after Thiel sued Gawker into oblivion, a reckoning with what the case did to media — and to the people inside it. Their weaponized wit made enemies, minted stars and helped define the internet as we know it. A decade after Peter Thiel engineered the site’s spectacular collapse, Nick Denton’s diaspora is still shaping media — and haunted by what happened. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Stephen Miller in Retreat: On Miller’s diminishing influence inside the administration. Ideologues rarely survive contact with operations. The once-powerful aide’s influence has quietly diminished. (The Atlantic)

• What Ethiopian running says about the limits of human ability: A lovely essay on why one Ethiopian region keeps producing world-class distance runners. Genes, altitude, and culture in one stride. One school of training is highly personalised, technical and data-driven. The other is the one that wins marathons (Aeon)

• ‘Being offended isn’t the worst thing. Being poor is’: how Robby Hoffman became a controversial comedy sensation: Profile of Robby Hoffman, the working-class comic who’s becoming impossible to ignore. Genuinely funny, which still counts. She became a controversial comedy sensation, and one of the world’s most successful comedians, with a hit Netflix special, an Emmy-nominated role in Hacks and another opposite Steve Carell. But many of her jokes raise hackles. Is she a genius – or an edgelord? (The Guardian)

Video of the day: Why Oil Will Never Hit $200

 

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Joe McLean, Managing Partner at MAI Capital Management, where he leads firm’s Sports & Entertainment division, serving 100s of pro athletes/entertainers across NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA + NASCAR. His path to finance runs directly through the locker room as a 4-year NCAA Division 1 player at U of Arizona. Dubbed the athlete’s “Money Whisperer” by the New York Times, he is known for his non-negotiable 60% savings mandate for clients.

 

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Chinese National Indicted In Florida For Allegedly Importing Deadly New Synthetic Opioid

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese national has been indicted by the federal authorities in Florida for his alleged role in a plot to import and distribute large quantities of a new synthetic opioid, protonitazene, which is “significantly more potent than fentanyl,” the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida said in a May 11 statement.

An undated image of nitazene tablets in the hand of a police officer in Australia. (Australian Federal Police).

Jia Guo and Seven Schmidt, an associate from Las Vegas, Nevada, are charged with conspiracy to import protonitazene into the United States from China and conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute protonitazene. “If convicted, each defendant faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison for each of the two counts,” the attorney’s office said.

The pair allegedly began operating a drug trafficking operation in September 2024. In the statement, the attorney’s office said the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service (USPIS) had investigated the pair, with assistance from China’s Ministry of Public Security.

“The indictment alleges that a China-based supplier and a domestic distributor worked together to bring a deadly synthetic opioid into the United States and turn it into counterfeit pills for distribution across the country,” U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Jason A. Reding Quiñones said.

Guo allegedly procured the protonitazene in China and shipped it to co-conspirators, including an associate in Miami-Dade County, who used special presses to manufacture counterfeit pills, which were then distributed to drug dealers throughout the country.

Schmidt allegedly used the alias “Vegas” to order large amounts of the pills and had them delivered from Florida to Nevada by the U.S. Postal Service.

It was not immediately clear whether Schmidt or Guo had legal representatives who could comment on their behalf.

‘One Pill Can Kill’

In September, Frank Tarentino, who heads the New York Division of the DEA, warned about the growing threat from new synthetic opioids called nitazenes, which are being imported from China. He said they are increasingly prevalent on the illicit drug scene.

Nitazenes are delivered in the form of counterfeit pills mimicking drugs such as Xanax or Percocet, according to the DEA. They are more resistant than fentanyl to naloxone, a medication that can reverse opioid overdoses.

“Here in the United States, we have found it in heroin, methamphetamine, in some cases fentanyl, and more alarmingly, we have now seen it pressed into pills,” Tarentino said in a Sept. 10, 2025, interview with NTD, a sister outlet of The Epoch Times.

“These pills are made to look familiar, but one pill can kill,” Reding Quiñones said on May 11. “If you use South Florida as a gateway to import synthetic opioids, make counterfeit pills, or profit from addiction, you will face federal prosecution.”

In October 2025, the FBI and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) introduced the new task forces to target transnational organized crime operating in the United States.

The attorney’s office said the prosecution is part of the Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) initiative established by Executive Order 14159, “Protecting the American People Against Invasion.”

Reding Quiñones said the charges showed why Homeland Security task forces were needed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 21:45

SpaceX, Google Eye Orbital Data Centers As Small-Town Resistance Grows

With roughly half of planned U.S. data center buildouts this year expected to be delayed or canceled amid mounting power constraints and local opposition, tech bros are increasingly looking beyond Earth and toward space for the next phase of compute expansion.

This dovetails with one of our most investable themes, "Data Centers In Space Are Coming: Here's How To Profit," in which we outlined how SpaceX, leveraging Starship's affordable launch costs and the Starlink network, could make it commercially viable to deploy spacecraft packed with chip stacks and build out a massive mesh network of orbital compute satellites.

Moments ago, The Wall Street Journal reported that Google is in discussions with Elon Musk's SpaceX as a key launch provider for orbital data center deployments.

WSJ: Google is in talks with SpaceX for a rocket launch deal as the search giant expands its own efforts to put orbital data centers in space.

The speculative technology has been at the center of SpaceX’s pitch to investors ahead of its planned public listing this summer

A… https://t.co/eg9yE3J1Uz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 12, 2026

The discussions center on potential Starship launches for Google's Project Suncatcher, which aims to test satellite-based computing hardware by 2027, the outlet reported, citing sources.

"We'll send tiny racks of machines and have them in satellites, test them out, and then start scaling from there," Google CEO Sundar Pichai told Fox News in a recent interview.

Pichai noted, "There's no doubt to me that a decade or so away, we'll be viewing it as a more normal way to build data centers."

With the SpaceX IPO scheduled for June and commanding a valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.75 trillion, we recently outlined for readers exactly how to profit from the commercialization of space. Read more here.

The urgency for orbital data center deployments comes as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas warned in mid-April that "the American data center boom is hitting a formidable wall of logistical friction."

Gianarikas is referring to the latest outlook by Sightline Climate, which is also reinforced by recent articles from Bloomberg and others, and reveals a sobering reality for 2026: nearly half of the nation's planned 16-gigawatt capacity faces cancellation or delay, with only 5 gigawatts currently under construction.

This inertia stems from a volatile mix of local permitting hurdles, community resistance, and a desperate reliance on overextended global supply chains for critical components like transformers and helium.

Mounting localized resistance against data centers has caused growing alarm among the tech bro world, such as Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital and co-host of the All-In Podcast, who recently warned that data center sentiment among the American people is actually polling worse than ICE agents.

Hyperscalers are planning to spend a staggering $700 billion in capex on data center buildouts and other AI infrastructure this year.

We expect capex commitments toward orbital data centers to accelerate over the next several years, especially as Starship shifts from years of flight testing into full commercialization.

Starcloud...

.@Starcloud_ plans to build a 5GW orbital data center, lower energy costs by 10x, and reduce the need for energy consumption on Earth, including deployment of the Starcloud-1 satellite powered by an NVIDIA H100 GPU. pic.twitter.com/yPEddTWnh7

— NVIDIA Robotics (@NVIDIARobotics) May 11, 2026

For hyperscalers facing mounting constraints on land, power, permitting, and local opposition, space offers no zoning battles, no community resistance, and full access to solar energy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 21:20

Ukraine To Israel: We Are Fighting The Same Axis Of Evil

Via The Libertarian Institute

A Ukrainian diplomat said to the Israeli press that Tel Aviv is missing an opportunity to save the lives of its soldiers by working with Kiev on anti-drone technology. 

Speaking with Ynet about Kiev’s anti-drone capabilities, Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, said, "We are fighting from a different angle against the same axis of evil."

via YNet

"Unfortunately, we do not see much interest or appetite from the Israeli leadership in this field. I do not want to speculate about the reasons for that. I am very sorry to hear reports about soldiers who were hit by drones, because we suffer from exactly the same thing."

He added, "When meeting people from different parts of Israeli society, I often hear frustration over the fact that Israel is missing an opportunity to save more of its soldiers’ lives. Most Israelis support Ukraine and do not understand why Ukrainians are able to deal with drones and Israel is not."

Israel has faced thousands of drone attacks by Iran and Hezbollah. Over the past month, Hezbollah has released dozens of videos of its drones targeting Israeli soldiers occupying southern Lebanon. 

Ukraine has sent about 200 drone experts to the Middle East to help the US and Arab states take down Iranian drones. Russia has used a variant of an Iranian drone during the war in Ukraine. 

Komiychuk lamented that while some Arab countries were willing to accept Ukraine’s assistance, Israel was not.

"As you know, President Zelensky recently made several regional visits in the Middle East, mainly to discuss security cooperation and advancing peace," he said. "I worked hard to create direct political contact for our leadership. However, you cannot come to someone’s home without an invitation."

While both Ukraine and Israel have been top recipients of American military aid and support, the relationship between Tel Aviv and Kyiv is strained. The most recent point of friction was a Russian grain shipment that Israel received. Kiev demanded that Tel Aviv refuse the grain, claiming it was stolen by Russia from Ukraine. 

Kormiychuck said that while tension existed between Israel and Ukraine, "My duty as ambassador is to find common ground for mutual benefit and development, and I truly believe our conversations could have been much better."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 20:55

"Chicom Among Us": Maryland GOP Lawmakers Sound Alarm Over Chinese-Born Delegate's AI Disclosure Bill

Rooting out Chinese communist spies appears to be moving higher on the agenda at the U.S. Justice Department, with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche now at the helm.

On Monday, the DoJ indicted Arcadia, California, Mayor Eileen Wang for working with the Chinese government. The larger concern is that Chinese communists have penetrated deeply into many levels of the U.S. government, as well as corporate America.

Spies are like cockroaches: if there's one, there are likely many more.

You are not gonna believe what I just found

The California Mayor who admitted to being a Chinese spy donated to the Democrat Senate Campaign Committee

Democrat Senators are being funded by Chinese spies

If it was the other way around, it would be front page news for weeks pic.twitter.com/wlHyLYzdub

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) May 12, 2026

That brings us to a recent podcast appearance by Mark Fisher and Brian Chisholm, Republican members of the Maryland House of Delegates, who raised alarm bells about one of their Democratic colleagues in Annapolis: Delegate Chao Wu, who was born in China and has pushed a state-level bill that would require AI companies to disclose sensitive trade data on their models.

"Welcome back to the Dumbest Bill in America. We have, of course, with us Delegate Brian Chisholm," Fisher said.

Fisher continued, "Because we believe that we have a communist Chicom among us. Well, and let me tell you why..." 

He said, "First of all, the bill is House Bill 823 from 2025. It was introduced by Delegate Wu — spelled W-U. And the bill basically says that if you're going to engage in AI training — artificial intelligence training — you have to disclose your training models and your training data every time you change it. Well, that would of course be a trade secret, wouldn't it?" 

Chisholm chimed in, saying, "So what their goal also in China… Look, China knows they can't take us down with tanks and bullets and all that. They have to kind of backdoor it. So they send in spies — people like Chao Wu — and try to gain intelligence, correct?" 

He continued, "That's the goal. The fight right now is who can get the intelligence faster. Why they sent us… it says something about Maryland. Maybe we're like the JV team that they sent Chao Wu to, because he's not the greatest of spies. I mean, his trail… and I'm sure you're going to bring up the article. We know he was working for the CCP when he was in college. You can't just reject it at one time…"

Chicom of the Year Award — HB 823 from 2025 requires the disclosure of AI training data. What is the purpose of this bill? Join @chisholmstrong & me for the Dumbest Bill in America! pic.twitter.com/RkWT4c7JGK

— Mark Fisher (@fisher4maryland) April 30, 2026

The article Chisholm was referring to...

Of course, Maryland Democrats call anything optically displeasing "racist" ...

Meanwhile, Dems in the state are "busy sending private letters policing podcasts and using CCP-style speech tactics." 

Maryland families are still reeling from the $1.5+ billion in new taxes & fees rammed through by @mddems.
Instead of fixing our broken budget, skyrocketing costs, or crime — the Speaker is busy sending private letters policing podcasts and using CCP-style speech tactics against… pic.twitter.com/2RMaquCqhu

— Maryland Freedom Caucus (@MDFreedomCaucus) May 11, 2026

To sum up, HB 823 could compel AI developers in the state to publicly disclose commercially sensitive details about their training model pipelines, creating an opportunity for foreign competitors, such as China, to collect open-source data. 

Now, why would a Chinese-born Maryland lawmaker, right down the street from Data Center Alley, want to push such a bill?

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 20:30

Four Signs That Bitcoin Has Recovered To 'Full' Bullish Momentum

Authored by Nancy Lubale via CoinTelegraph.com,

Market analysts said Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside remained intact despite the 2.5% correction from its multi-month high of $82,800 reached on May 6.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin has successfully re-entered expansion territory as the Bull Market Support Band turned to support.

• Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio has recovered from historic lows, indicating fresh liquidity is returning.

• Bitcoin’s spot taker CVD flips positive, suggesting real spot demand is back

Bitcoin’s price momentum is expanding

Private wealth manager Swissblock stated that Bitcoin is “still at full momentum,” despite the slight correction from recent highs.

Swissblock said that the latest rally saw the Bitcoin price momentum “successfully reignited and pushed back into full expansion territory.”

Bitcoin is now consolidating inside the cost-basis battlefield, with the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis around $80,000 acting as support and the active realized price at $85,000 as resistance. 

Meanwhile, “momentum remains structurally strong,” the wealth manager said, adding:

“As long as momentum stays above the transition area, bulls retain control.”

Bitcoin price momentum. Swissblock

Echoing this observation, analyst The Great Mattsby pointed out that Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band has now turned into support, while the 21-week exponential moving average has crossed back above the 20-week simple moving average.

“The trend has officially flipped back to bullish.” 

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/The Great Mattsby

Bitcoin liquidity signals “strong recovery”

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has recovered from its lower historical range below 10, the same zone that marked market bottoms in mid-2021, 2022 and mid-2023. 

Each time the SSR recovered from these lows, Bitcoin broke out of range and staged a strong rebound, as shown in the chart below.

Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio: Source: CryptoQuant

The recovering SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity is returning to exchanges again, potentially setting the stage for another bull run for BTC price.

The Binance Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator tells the same story. The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s 90D Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator has moved back into positive territory, reaching 12-month highs at 2.8.

“This reflects a strong recovery from the negative zone, with stablecoin purchasing demand becoming more active during the current rebound,” CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto said in a Tuesday QuickTake note, adding:

“For context, the oscillator previously reached 2.43 in May 2025 and 4.00 in November 2024 — both during stronger market phases.”

Stablecoin supply ratio oscillator. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s transaction activity is at 20-month highs

The strength in BTC price is reflected in Bitcoin's network activity, with daily transaction count rising by 116% in May to 831,450 on May 9.

This metric was last at similar levels in September 2024, before Bitcoin later rallied above $100,000 during the broader market surge following the US presidential election.

Bitcoin’s network activity is “more active than when it was at $100K,” analyst CW8900 said in an X post on Saturday, adding:

“The network is already showing signals of a bull market.”

Bitcoin daily transaction count. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s daily active address count has also climbed, increasing by 7.1% over the last week to 707,719, while total fee volume surged 37% to $279,300 over the same period, according to Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report.

“Such a significant increase suggests heightened onchain activity, potentially signaling bullish market conditions.”

Bitcoin daily active address count. Source: Glassnode

Increasing transaction count, daily active addresses and fees means more users are interacting with the network. It suggests high network activity, often correlating with increased interest and market confidence.

Bitcoin's “real demand” is back

Bitcoin’s 90-day spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD), a measure of the difference between buy and sell volume over three months, shows a “significant shift in capital flow structure,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Rei Researcher. 

The metric flipped positive (green bars in the chart below) in early May as the price broke above the $78,000 resistance and has remained positive since. 

“Taker Buy Dominance in the spot market indicates buying pressure from ‘major players’ (Whales/Institutions) looking to hold $BTC rather than just speculating via derivatives,” the Rei Researcher said in a recent Quicktake note, adding: 

“Real demand has prevailed. When bulls are willing to pay higher prices to own $BTC, a sustainable uptrend usually follows.”

Bitcoin spot taker CVD. Source: CryptoQuant

If the CVD remains green, it could set the stage for another rally as seen in the past. A similar occurrence in May 2025 accompanied 65% BTC price gains. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s spot demand is also accelerating, with spot CVD rising 47% to $62 million from $42 million a week ago, additional data from Glassnode shows.

“This increase indicates a significant uptick in buying aggression among market participants,” the onchain data provider said, adding:

“This behavior implies heightened conviction, with aggressive traders actively setting higher market prices, potentially signaling continued bullish momentum.”

Bitcoin: Spot CVD. Source: Glassnode

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio suggests BTC's market structure is strengthening, which may be an early sign of a new bull market.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 20:05

As Hegseth Spars With Congress Over Iran War, Trump Decries Criticism As 'Virtual Treason'

There was a bit of a narrative shift on display in Congress as back-to-back hearings on Capitol Hill with top defense and Trump admin officials played out Tuesday, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth repeatedly on the defensive as he and the administration face intensified scrutiny over the Iran war.

And the growing frustration vented in Congress is not just being sounded by Democrats. As Washington Post's Tuesday headline aptly described: Hegseth, Caine encounter intense bipartisan frustration with Iran war. It seems President Trump has been made keenly aware of potential growing rebellion among GOP ranks, and biting criticisms over how the conflict and Strait of Hormuz standoff is going, given he decided to level the word "treason" in an afternoon Truth Social Post. It seemed also aimed at a series of apparent recent sensitive or classified info leaks within the administration and Pentagon to the media, related to the conflict...

Trump stated while en route to China: "When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it's virtual TREASON" - and he went on to charge that "they are aiding and abetting the enemy!"

"Only Losers, Ingrates, and Fools are able to make a case against America!" he also wrote.

This moment might remind the American public of another key turning point in US history when past president cast all criticisms of wars of choice in the Middle East: When President George W. Bush was gearing up to launch new forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11 attacks, he declared, "Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists."

This week also saw arch-neoconservative Robert Kagan break from Trump's Iran War in the the pages of the generally pro-war Atlantic:

It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored.

Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure.

Kagan doesn't hold back:

Even if Trump were to carry out his threat to destroy Iran’s “civilization” through more bombing, Iran would still be able to launch many missiles and drones before its regime went down—assuming it did go down. Just a few successful strikes could cripple the region’s oil and gas infrastructure for years if not decades, throwing the world, and the United States, into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of an exit strategy—looking tough as a way of masking his retreat—he can’t do that without risking this catastrophe.

If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close.

But what might Trump also be responding to in his fresh Truth Social Post? Along with some media leaks, he also may have caught a glimpse of his top Pentagon officials and general in the hot seat all day.

Below are some highlights at a moment of growing bipartisan anger related to Iran operations. Most of the fireworks below involved Democrats' line of questioning. As a reminder, Wednesday will mark day 75 of a conflict that the White House initially said would take a matter of 'days' or weeks at most.

*  *  *

Pentagon Struggles to Articulate Strategic Vision & End-Game

Sen. Coons: "What is your plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz?"

Hegseth: "I would just note that the majority of your question was highly disingenuous and loaded with suggestions that I very much don't agree with." pic.twitter.com/Mh9Q8Yu2N8

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) May 12, 2026

When Will the Strait Reopen? The Most Powerful Military in the World 'Held Hostage'

DURBIN: Could you explain to the American people why with the vast investment we've made in national defense and military, how Iran after they are attacked by us is still capable of stopping the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?

CAINE: It's a complex situation

DURBIN: As we… pic.twitter.com/tzncZCEYKj

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 12, 2026

Mounting Iran War Costs to the Taxpayer

Reed's line of questioning exposes how Pentagon officials have been full of it when talking about how much Trump's Iran war has actually cost pic.twitter.com/Cu2gQR9dQo

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 12, 2026

Trump Was 'Forced' To Lift Sanctions on Russian/Iranian Oil At Sea

HEGSETH: We know Russia is a nefarious actor and account for tha--

SHAHEEN: All evidence to the contrary. We're not accounting for that if we're giving Russia the opportunity to earn $4 billion a month by leaving sanctions lifted pic.twitter.com/Z0OoSUpOLn

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 12, 2026

"At the Request of the Pakistanis it was Paused..."

Massive humiliation for Trump. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms Donald Trump was forced to halt a major naval operation Project Freedom.

He accidentally exposes absolute weakness, admitting the administration abruptly suspended it merely because Pakistan demanded it. pic.twitter.com/SCv0B69x3e

— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) May 12, 2026

Plan To Escalate if Necessary 

Pete Hegseth on Iran:

We have a plan to escalate, if necessary. We have a plan to retrograde, if necessary. pic.twitter.com/qOuCjU5bm6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 12, 2026

*  *  *

President Trump before leaving to China issued a message which is definitely not going to sit well with much of the American public. The midterms will get here fast, after all...

Trump on Iran War:

Reporter: What extent are Americans’ financial situation motivating you to make a deal?

Trump: Not even a little bit. I don't think about Americans’ financial situation pic.twitter.com/TJ94pGpqD8

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 12, 2026

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 19:40

Former CIA Director Brennan Says There Are Still "Legions" Of Anti-Trump, Deep State Operatives, At DOJ, FBI, & CIA

Authored by Sundance via The Conservative Treehouse,

Appearing on MSNBC to talk to Lawfare ally Nicole Wallace, wife of New York Times narrative engineer Michael Schmidt – the guy who received leaks from FBI Director James Comey via Daniel Richman, former CIA Director John Brennan notes there are “legions” of operatives still embedded within the DOJ, FBI and CIA who are working against President Donald Trump.

This is not a surprise as we have noted the Trump administration continues to take apart the tentacles of Lawfare and Intelligence operatives in Main Justice, various U.S. Attorney offices, FBI Headquarters, FBI field offices and various Intelligence Community silos.

Marco Rubio has been working to clean up the National Security Council as well as the State Department operations, including USAID.  Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe have been working on the NSA and CIA collaboratively, and Todd Blanche has been working through the Dept of Justice.  FBI Director Kash Patel has removed about ten percent of the problem in his agency.

Unbelievable. Former CIA Director John Brennan just said the quiet part out LOUD, that there are still a "legion" of bureaucrats within the intel and justice communities who are actively sabotaging the executive authority of President Trump:

"There's still a legion of… pic.twitter.com/XhBLzhy7s2

— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) May 11, 2026

The core problem goes back to what we outlined on these pages {GO DEEP} and is not limited to those operatives who remain from the Obama/Biden era.  Some of the problems surface as a result of ‘republican’ voices recommending “sleeper cell” staff and sketchy personnel for positions in the administration. [I’ll put an example below]

One way to tell if the agency head or leader understands the challenge is by paying attention to how they talk about the agency’s mission objective.

Leaders like Marco Rubio and Tulsi Gabbard have openly acknowledged the problem and are actively tackling corruption within their ranks. Even John Ratcliffe has admitted his agency was politically weaponized and has taken steps to address it. There’s still a lot of work ahead, but their actions show visible progress.

People like Pam Bondi and Kash Patel have praised the institutional embeds without drawing attention to the corruption beneath them. Thankfully, Acting AG Todd Blanche seems to be taking a more confrontational approach internally, so maybe Kash Patel will follow suit. This isn’t about style—it’s about results, and there’s an urgent need for action.

To give an example of “sketchy” recommendations and predictable outcomes, I would draw attention to the lesser visible appointment of Morgan Ortagus.  Do you remember this very weirdly worded announcement, two weeks prior to the inauguration?

Via Truth Social

I have no idea who “them” is referencing in the announcement.

[…] “I’m not doing this for me, I doing it for them”

There were always three options for “them”: (1) the strong republican support people; or (2) people in the Middle East who would be dealing with her; or (3) Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner.  Regardless, of who “them” was, it was obvious President Trump was not thrilled by “their” request.

Mrs. Morgan Ortagus is a long time Deep State operative with roots in the U.S. intelligence community and USAID {citation}.  It was very predictable that she would undermine the goals of President Trump and she only lasted six months in the job.  Ortagus was quietly dispatched from her position in June 2025.

CTH predicted {SEE HERE} Mrs. Ortagus would be a big mistake because she was, quite frankly, one of the “legion” insiders referenced by former CIA Director John Brennan.  Ortagus’s entire career profile was/is textbook intelligence operative, likely legacy CIA.

Not coincidentally, former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz was removed from his position only a month before Ortagus lost hers.

On the day he was announced CTH said National Security Advisor Mike Waltz would be the first administration member to get the boot, because in the non-pretending world Waltz was a horrible choice just like Ortagus.  Mike Waltz was removed as National Security Advisor in May 2025, {citation} Ortagus was removed as Middle East envoy in June {citation}.

If the goal was to eliminate the Deep State, President Trump couldn’t take on a deeply corrupt Intelligence Community while also appointing its allies. Their close ties to the Intelligence Community made the failures of both Waltz and Ortagus predictable.

That said, behind the veneer of John Brennan’s statement on MSNBC is a guy who realizes the Trump administration has changed the dynamic and the agency systems Brennan is talking about no longer exist; at least they no longer have the same capabilities.

The need for control is a reaction to fear, and Brennan’s fear is both visible and very well founded.

The DOJ and FBI operate under the influence of the Intelligence Community, which ultimately holds the reins. The key figures leading the IC have made changes to the institutions that have significantly reduced the impact of bad actors within the DOJ and FBI.

The key positions are the National Security Advisor, the Secretary of State, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Marco Rubio, Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe are the people to watch, and we can tell by the counsel(s) they have put into place that each of them has clear eyes and a steady hand on those critical institutions.

Since mid-year 2025, around the same time Waltz and Ortagus were dispatched, you will note significant changes began surfacing in the National Security Council, the State Dept, the DNI and importantly the CIA.  Some of the changes make headlines, many do not; however, each is important and builds on a larger goal of dismantling a highly weaponized and political intelligence apparatus.

Internationally, what we see in the reaction of allied -or oppositional- governments and their intelligence agencies, is in large part a geopolitical reaction to the consequential changes being made by Rubio, Gabbard and Ratcliffe.  Each building upon a system that fundamentally changes U.S. policy to be in alignment with President Trump.  Each of them should be commended.

Domestically, the accountability developments involving James Comey, John Brennan, John Bolton, Michael Atkinson, Eric Ciaramella and others yet to emerge, stem from the transparency brought by the same trio working upstream from Main Justice and the FBI. The combined intelligence apparatus of the U.S. can cut through the chaff and countermeasures of Lawfare operatives, and I feel optimistic watching them in action.

Again, it’s not just the silo heads that are making a positive impact, it is the personnel decisions they are surrounding themselves with.  The amount of sunlight now coming over the horizon is toxic to the interests of those who organized shadow operations.

As long as Rubio, Ratcliffe and especially Gabbard, keep pushing the truth to the surface; as long as they keep exposing all the corruption that was used to manipulate and weaponize our government; as long as they keep strategizing on ways to declassify evidence former officials buried under false pretenses; then the DOJ, FBI and more importantly We The People, will have information we can use to make decisions.

Ultimately, it is the truth which makes evil enterprise retreat.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 19:15

China's Teapot Refiners Slash Output As Hormuz Crisis Crushes Margins

Confirming our report from last Friday, Reuters reports that some independent refiners in China (also known as "teapots") are slashing their production rates as margins plummet to unprecedented negative levels, and demand weakens amid the continued paralysis of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

China refiner margins (when Beijing tells you you can't raise prices, you don't raise prices). pic.twitter.com/DzZQoXqs5a

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 8, 2026

Citing unnamed trade and industry sources, Reuters reported today that the average operating rates at so-called teapots in Shandong had fallen to 50%, from 55% in April. What’s more, the operating rates of independent refiners are likely to fall further as the war drags on, and refiners swing into losses that the Reuters sources estimate at between $74 and $88 per ton of processed crude oil.

As a reminder, on Friday we reported that Chinese authorities ordered private refiners to maintain high levels of gasoline and diesel supply, even at a loss, or risk their crude import quotas being slashed if they reduce run rates. If the private refiners move to cut processing rates to preserve margins amid soaring crude prices, they would see their import quotas – handed out by the government in quarterly or semi-annual installments – reduced in the coming years, the officials warned. Instead, they appear to have aggressively reduced their import demands, leading to a big drop in Chinese oil imports.

Reuters confirms that it now appears teapots have run out of options and are risking lower quotas to manage their losses. “Without cutting output, the losses are unbearable,” one of the Reuters sources said.

Asia, the biggest oil demand center globally, is facing the greatest pain from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, the war could force up to 6 million bpd cuts to crude runs across Asia in April, as refineries face severe supply disruption with 65% dependency on Middle East crude.

China is better insulated than its neighbous thanks to a stockpile of an estimated 1.4 billion barrels that has been accumulated over the past couple of years. Yet as OilPrice notes, this supply cushion is limited, so China is doing a fine balancing act of keeping the domestic market well supplied to avoid sharp price spikes, especially since China's economy is increasingly dependent on the well-being of its Pacific rim neighbors (and trading partners) who are far less insulated from surging oil prices. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 18:50

Saudi Arabia Secretly Launched Attacks On Iran At Height Of Epic Fury

First it was revealed this week that UAE had directly attacked Iran in retaliatory strikes earlier in Operation Epic Fury, and now it has come to light that the Saudis did the same, and in multiple strike operations.

Reuters reports Tuesday that "Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war, two Western officials briefed on the matter, and two Iranian officials said."

KSA military file image

"The Saudi attacks, not previously reported, mark the first time that the kingdom is known to have directly carried out military action on Iranian soil and show it is becoming much bolder in defending itself against its main regional rival," the report continues.

"The attacks, launched by the Saudi Air Force, were assessed to have been carried out in late March, the two Western officials said," Reuters notes further. One of the sources described this military actions as "tit-for-tat strikes in retaliation for when Saudi [Arabia] was hit."

The revelation suggests that even as the Trump White House tried to present this is a very limited war, or even a mere US "excursion" - as Trump previously said, it was on the brink of spiraling into an all-out regional war involving Gulf allies hitting back directly at the Islamic Republic.

By and large the Gulf allies relied solely on the US and Israel to pummel Iran during the prior 38 days of heavy bombing which marked the peak of Operation Epic Fury.

This as the Gulf absorbed the bulk of Iran's retaliation. Iran sent hundreds if not thousands of ballistic missiles and drones on Gulf energy, infrastructure, and even central areas of cities.

It had remained at the time an open question of whether countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait would actually then go on the offensive. It seems that to some degree they did, and the public didn't know about it.

Neither the Saudis nor Emirates have publicly acknowledged direct attacks on Iran, and per the new Reuters reporting Tuesday:

Saudi Arabia has meanwhile sought to prevent the conflict from escalating and has stayed in regular contact with Iran, including via Tehran's ambassador in Riyadh. He did not respond to a request for comment.

The senior Saudi foreign ministry official did not directly address whether a de-escalation agreement had been struck with Iran, but said: "We reaffirm Saudi Arabia's consistent position advocating de-escalation, self-restraint and the reduction of tensions in pursuit of the stability, security and prosperity of the region and its people."

Iranian officials declared they were primarily targeting US assets and military bases, and further vowed to 'punish' these countries for ever hosting American bases in the first place.

But this new info showing that the Saudis and UAE in had already in effect joined the US military campaign marks yet more evidence of escalation. The ceasefire meanwhile seems effectively dead at this stage. NBC is now reporting the Pentagon actually considering re-naming Iran war ‘Sledgehammer’ if ceasefire collapses.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 18:00

The Slide From 'Minnesota Nice' To Assaulting Journalists

Authored by Matt Cookson via RealClearPolitics,

Minnesota wasn’t always a fixture in the national news cycle. Now, it seems every month there is a new headline about Minnesota. This time, it involves a mob of protestors assaulting a conservative journalist. If Minnesotans want to end the trend of political violence plaguing their state, they must take a stand against incidents like these.

Last month, Savanah Hernandez, a journalist with TPUSA, was mobbed and assaulted while filming an anti-ICE protest in Minneapolis. Hernandez makes a living covering controversial events, so documenting this protest is nothing new for her. Things took a turn, however, when protestors assaulted Hernandez, shoving her several times, driving her to the ground.

By all accounts, it was merely Hernandez’s presence and reputation that drew the ire of the protestors. Nothing reported as of yet indicates she was the instigator of any violence. I won’t go into Ms. Hernandez’s views, because they couldn’t be less relevant to the issue at hand: There is no justification for what happened to her at that protest. Free speech and freedom of the press are foundational rights of our republic. Ms. Hernandez should not fear violence for coverage of an event that any journalist would cover. Her assailants should be held accountable to the fullest extent possible.

Unfortunately, political violence in the Land of 10,000 Lakes is nothing new. Beyond the violence of the past weekend, Minnesota has become a hotbed for this type of thing. Renee Good was tragically killed after physically obstructing ICE operations. She should still be alive today, yet this type of confrontation goes beyond typical First Amendment protests and heightens the risk of violent confrontation. The people of Minnesota have every right to voice anti-ICE opinions, but physical obstruction crosses a line. One that leads to unnecessary confrontations with law enforcement.

Yet Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey only make things worse through their frequent comparisons of ICE agents to Nazis and their threat to use the National Guard to interfere with federal agents.

Another example of this contempt for First Amendment freedoms came after a group of anti-ICE protestors stormed a church service they believed was led by an ICE agent. Not only did this group not tolerate disagreement, but they actively sought out people to intimidate. It’s one thing to be violent towards an attendee of a protest; it’s another to go into a church full of people who have nothing to do with the issue and impose your beliefs on them.

While the heat of this episode died down and ICE reduced its presence in the state, the assault on Ms. Hernandez suggests Minnesota’s political culture has markedly changed. Once known for its friendly “Minnesota Nice” culture, things have changed, especially in the past decade. The turning point for this change happened in the summer of 2020, when the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis sparked nationwide protests, rioting, and looting.

As a resident of the state during that time, I remember sitting in my parents’ living room, watching the city of Minneapolis in flames. How did Gov. Walz respond? Despite pleas from Mayor Frey, Walz waited to deploy the National Guard, allowing unnecessary destruction to take place. Frey asked Walz for National Guard help on Tuesday, June 2, but Walz didn’t deploy the guard until the following Friday; even then, it was only partially activated. The violence Walz permitted led to more than half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in what was the second most destructive riot in U.S. history.

This episode set the precedent that the Minnesota government would take a soft position on political violence, incentivizing people like those who attacked Hernandez to respond violently when faced with opposing views.

Thankfully, the rule of law is not dead in Minnesota. The family who assaulted Hernandez will be charged for their actions that day. To deter future incidents, the alleged assailants should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

More needs to be done to prevent future incidents like this. Although not responsible for the violence, Gov. Walz bears some of the blame for allowing this culture to fester. His term as governor is soon ending, and his successor must make clear that violence against political opponents will not be tolerated. Otherwise, incidents like this will happen more often.

Minnesota is well known for its natural beauty and friendly people. The attack on journalist Savanah Hernandez has called the latter into doubt. If Minnesotans don’t reject these incidents as antithetical to their values, violence will only increase. Minnesota must reject political violence and learn how to disagree respectfully.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 17:40

US Unleashes Another Wave Of Crude From Strategic Reserve As Gas Prices Soar

The U.S. government will loan 53 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to petroleum companies in a bid to relieve elevated gas and oil prices amid the conflict with Iran.

In a news release on Monday, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced it would release the crude oil from its sites in Louisiana and Texas to contribute to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) move to stabilize the price of oil, which has often risen above $100 per barrel since the conflict started on Feb. 28.

As of Tuesday morning, the price for a barrel of Brent crude oil rose slightly to $108.

“Deliveries will begin immediately as the Department continues to move swiftly to address short-term supply disruptions and strengthen U.S. energy security,” the agency said in a statement, adding that petroleum companies “may begin scheduling deliveries immediately.”

The DOE, according to the news release, will “evaluate market conditions and operational capacity as it advances additional steps to meet the full United States commitment under the coordinated international release.”

Trafigura is taking the largest haul of nearly 13 million barrels, followed by Marathon and Exxon Mobil Corp, the US Energy Department said Monday.

Near-record volumes of government oil are flowing to market in a bid to rein in prices at the pump ahead of the busy summer driving season.

As Jack Phillips reports for The Epoch Times, participating petroleum companies can also use President Donald Trump’s usage of the Jones Act waiver, a federal statute that requires all goods transported by water between U.S. ports to be carried on American ships with American crews, to help “accelerate critical near-term oil flows into the market,” the DOE release said.

The DOE has already loaned around 80 million barrels from the reserve in recent weeks, bringing the total to 172 million barrels.

The U.S. government had agreed to that larger amount in March in a ​pact with more than 30 countries in the IEA to release about 400 million barrels.

The oil will be released between June and August, when refiners crank up as gasoline demand peaks.

The decision is an attempt to mitigate the price increases caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes on a normal day. Iran has launched strikes and threatened commercial vessels in the strait, while it has also said it would create a legal framework to oversee the transportation of ships in the area.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s director, has said the Iran war has created the biggest-ever energy ‌crisis.

If ⁠supply disruptions from the war persist, the agency is ready to release additional oil from strategic reserves, Birol said on May 7.

So far, member countries have released 20 percent of available reserves, Birol said.

“This is indeed the biggest crisis ​in history,” Birol told France Inter ​radio in an interview broadcast on April 21.

“The ⁠crisis is already huge, if you combine ​the effects of the petrol crisis and the ​gas crisis with Russia.”

The SPR, held in caverns at four sites ​on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, currently holds about 393 million barrels.

The Trump administration committed to release 172 million barrels in a so-called exchange program, where oil is loaned to companies and must be returned in kind at a later date.

So far the US has agreed to release 133.1 million barrels.

It’s unclear if the energy department will hold another offer until it meets the 172 million-barrel target.

Not all the oil remains in the US. Part of it is being exported to Europe and South America.

The announcement from the DOE comes as Trump said on Monday at the White House that he rejected the latest peace proposal from the Iranian regime and signaled that a already-tenuous ceasefire between the United States and Iran is on “life support.”

Also on Monday, Trump said he would move to suspend the federal tax on gasoline in a bid to lower prices at the pump.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 17:20

Unearthed DOJ Files Implicate Hunter Biden In Potential Sex Trafficking Violations

Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA,

Newly released internal DOJ files appear to implicate President Joe Biden’s disgraced son, Hunter Biden, in alleged prostitution-related activity, corroborating accusations raised years earlier by Senate Republicans.

Hunter Biden / PHOTO: AP

The files, obtained Monday by the Senate Judiciary Committee and the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, showed Hunter exchanging text messages with several women discussing payments, travel arrangements and extended meetings.

Some of the exchanges appeared to raise potential issues under the Mann Act. This federal law prohibits interstate prostitution and other sex trafficking-related offenses, according to Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.

Notably, Grassley was among the Senate Republicans who previously warned in a September 2020 report that Hunter may have paid Eastern European women for prostitution or interacted with individuals potentially tied to a human trafficking ring.

The messages reviewed by Headline USA also referenced payment methods including Zelle, Venmo, Cash App and wire transfers.

In November 2018, Hunter appeared to have booked a flight for an unidentified woman from Los Angeles to an undisclosed location.

On March 22, 2019, a presumed woman told Hunter that a ticket cost $560. Hunter replied: “I’m going to send you money and you buy ok.”

Another message later stated: “Sent you 750 by cash app,” while a separate exchange read: “And I will have another 3K for you in cashmere [sic].”

Additional messages appeared to discuss payments tied to extended periods. In one exchange, Hunter appeared to ask how much an individual would charge for “an extra eight hours,” prompting the recipient to reply: “5000.”

Hunter also appeared to reference discounts for “anything over 4,” seemingly referring to hours.

In another exchange, after Hunter offered $9,000, the recipient replied: “9500 ok.” Hunter then responded he would “wire money at 2 pm all of it thanks love.”

Separate January 2019 messages showed a recipient repeatedly complaining that money had not arrived. Hunter replied that he had sent two certified checks to a New York P.O. Box address.

Other exchanges appeared to reference the availability of individuals in different parts of the country.

According to Grassley, the DOJ possessed the files but declined to pursue prostitution- or sex-related charges against Hunter.

Prosecutors instead focused on tax violations and false statements Hunter made on a federal firearm purchase form regarding his drug addiction.

Before leaving office, Joe Biden issued Hunter a sweeping blanket pardon covering any federal offenses potentially committed between January 1, 2014, and Dec. 1, 2024. This was the first time in U.S. history a sitting president issuing such a broad pardon to his own child.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 17:00

Iran Specifies 5 Demands To Restart Peace Talks With US

Iran on Tuesday revealed its demands in a counteroffer to the United States that President Trump shot down on Sunday, which has put the whole conflict and Pakistan-mediated talks in a holding pattern and stalemate, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked.

The demands hinge on war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to US sanctions - things which the White House balked at, with war reparations especially being focus of rejection by the US side, and the lack of taking up the nuclear issue, which Iran has insisted is a non-starter and would only be dealt with after the war is settled.

via AFP

Trump had previously made clear on Truth Social that "I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!"

Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem has listed the following five conditions that it sees as the basis for reentering talks:

1. Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon

2. Lifting all sanctions

3. Releasing frozen Iranian assets

4. Compensation for war damages and losses

5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

Again, all this according to Tehran must be agreed to while at the same time Iran is pushing back against nuclear negotiations.

In a Monday press briefing Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei had publicly alluded to several of these, including in his words, "Demanding an end to the war, lifting the blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to U.S. pressure."

Also, there was mention of "Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region and Lebanon were other demands of Iran, which are considered a generous and responsible offer for regional security" - before talks could begin in good faith.

Tehran apparently feels it can weather the tightening economic noose its under, given Tanker Trackers on Tuesday said Iran has not successfully exported any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days.

To our best knowledge, Iran hasn't successfully exported* any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days. Some refined products managed to escape because US OFAC did not slap sanctions on those tankers.

In addition, Kharg Island hasn't loaded any tankers since 2026-05-06 as a result…

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) May 12, 2026

Trump, just before his departure to China, remarked to Axios: "Iran will either do the right thing or we will finish the job... we are either gonna make a deal or they will be decimated."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 16:40

Kevin Warsh Cleared By Senate For 14‑Year Fed Board Seat

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Kevin Warsh will be returning to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

The U.S. Senate voted 51–45 to approve Warsh’s nomination to a 14-year term on the central bank’s board on May 12, joining six other members. Four senators did not file a vote.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) crossed party lines to support President Donald Trump’s nominee.

Warsh’s tenure as Fed governor will run until 2040.

He previously served on the board from 2006 to 2011, when he resigned over differences regarding the leadership’s post-crisis quantitative easing program.

Governors serve 14-year terms to prevent political pressure.

Their roles consist of voting on monetary policy, supervising and regulating the financial system, and overseeing the Fed’s 12 regional banks.

The vote also marked the end of Stephen Miran’s brief tenure on the board.

Miran, who previously served as head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, was nominated by the president last summer to fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler. It is unclear if he plans to return to the Trump administration.

Senators will next vote on Warsh’s confirmation as head of the Federal Reserve, which could happen as early as May 13.

Walking a Minefield

Warsh’s return to the Fed could be marred by challenges, mainly due to the 11-week-old Iranian conflict reviving price pressures across the U.S. economy.

April’s annual consumer inflation rate accelerated to 3.8 percent, the highest level since May 2023 and above consensus forecasts.

The war has lifted global energy prices, forcing drivers to pay more at the pump.

The national average for a gallon of gasoline—as of May 12—is parked at $4.50.

Structural inflation could also be under threat.

Twelve-month core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, edged higher to 2.8 percent, topping estimates.

Warsh has been a frequent critic of the Fed’s policy decisions.

He has argued that the central bank can lower interest rates as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom would be disinflationary and reduce business and consumer prices.

At the same time, Warsh has stated that the Fed should scale back its balance sheet use.

A point of contention is whether Warsh will maintain Fed independence.

He has reaffirmed his support for monetary autonomy. But it does not mean it is under threat if elected officials weigh in on policy, he said.

Kevin Warsh (L), U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve during his Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs confirmation hearing in Washington on April 21, 2026.  Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates,” Warsh said in his opening remarks in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

Despite his clarification on Fed independence, there are still questions surrounding how he would navigate policy, says Rebecca Homkes, an economist and former fellow at the London School of Economics Center for Economic Performance.

“Warsh’s over-bullishness on AI’s impact on productivity should be more of a discussion, as we need the next Fed Chair to be working to steer a policy approach of better, robust data and research to understand this technology,” she told The Epoch Times.

“What’s raising more eyebrows is his insistence on his reform agenda, including changes to responsibilities, press briefings, and what topic areas they cover.”

Warsh has teased a series of changes he could bring to the Fed: updating long-standing economic models, reforming how the central bank communicates with the public, and potentially how the Fed targets inflation.

Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed-income strategist at LPL Financial, says Warsh’s approach to monetary policy would likely be far more traditional than the approach practiced over the past 20 years.

“Rather than leaving heavily on intervention and detailed promises about the future path of rates, Warsh has consistently argued for restraint, humility, and a greater reliance on incoming data,” Gillum said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

If confirmed, Warsh would head the June 16 to June 17 Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.

Investors have priced in the expectation that the Fed will not lower interest rates at all this year. A growing chorus of traders has started forecasting a rate hike sometime in 2027.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 16:20

Millions Of Student Borrowers Are Defaulting: They Are 40 Years Old On Average

The NY Federal published its latest report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter: the report showed total household debt increased by $18 billion, just a 0.1% increase, in Q1 2026, to $18.8 trillion. 

Some details:

• Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports grew slightly by $21 billion during the first quarter of 2026 and totaled $13.19 trillion at the end of March.
• Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $12 billion, marking the 16th consecutive quarterly increase. Outstanding HELOC balances now total $446 billion, $129 billion above the low reached in 2022Q1.
• Non-housing debt balances declined by $15 billion, or 0.3%, from 2025Q4. This decline was driven primarily by a seasonal decrease in credit card balances, which fell by $25 billion and now stand at $1.25 trillion.
• Student loan balances were essentially flat, decreasing by $6 billion and standing at $1.66 trillion.
• Auto loan balances grew by $18 billion, to $1.69 trillion.
• Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, edged down by $2 billion to $562 billion.

The volume of newly originated credit held steady in the first quarter of 2026 for both mortgages and auto loans.  Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, were largely steady with $530 billion newly originated in 2026Q1.

About 59,000 individuals had new foreclosures on their credit reports, a slight increase from the previous quarter.

There were $182 billion in new auto loans appearing on credit reports during the first quarter.

Aggregate limits on credit cards continued to rise, with a $60 billion (1.1%) uptick in the first quarter, to ~$5.5 trillion.  Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose, albeit at a slightly slower pace, by $14 billion (1.4%), continuing an expansion in HELOCs that began in 2022.

The total balance of loans delinquent at least 30 days remained unchanged at 4.8% from the prior quarter after six quarters of steady increase. Still, the overall delinquency rate matched the highest level reported since 2017. Transition into early delinquency held steady for auto loans, but ticked down for credit cards, from 8.7% annually to 8.6%, and for mortgages from 3.9% to 3.8%. 

“Aggregate household debt levels rose slightly, with modest increases in most debt types offsetting a seasonal decline in credit card balances,” said Daniel Mangrum, Research Economist at the New York Fed. “Delinquency transition rates were mostly steady, while student loan delinquencies are returning to pre-pandemic levels.”

More concerning is that the percentage of loan balances that are seriously delinquent and set to transition to default/discharge continues rising - student loan delinquency rate increased to 10.3% of balances 90+ days delinquent, up from the 9.6% observed in 2025Q4 - and while it hit a new post-covid high for student loans after the Biden moratorium ended last year, the credit card picture is most dire, with the percentage there on pace to surpass the financial crisis record in the next few quarters. As shown below, transition rates into serious delinquency were mostly unchanged for auto loans and credit cards, but increased slightly for mortgages from 1.4 % annually to 1.5%. The student loan delinquency rate increased to 10.3% of balances 90+ days delinquent, up from the 9.6% observed in Q4 2025.

Some more details: 

• The student loan transition rate into serious delinquency, measured as a four-quarter moving sum, declined from 16.2% in Q4 2025 to 10.9% this quarter, reflecting a slower pace of new student loan delinquencies in the first quarter relative to the previous year.
• 2.6 million student loan borrowers who were more than 120 days past due had their loans transferred to the U.S Department of Education’s Default Resolution Group.

About 124,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2026Q1, a pace unchanged from the previous quarter. The percentage of consumers with a third-party collection account on their credit report worsened slightly to 5.0 percent

Taking a closer look at the army of defaulting "students", the WSJ writes that millions of borrowers are defaulting on their student loans, and they are nearly 40 years old on average. That is nearly 2½ years older than the profile of a student-loan defaulter before the pandemic. Borrowers 50 and older are now at higher risk of default than younger borrowers. 

Since a pandemic-era pause on student-loan repayments ended in 2023, the federal government has been pushing people to start repaying their loans. In the fourth quarter of last year, those who failed to restart payments began defaulting, meaning they hit 270 days past due on their payments. The New York Fed estimated that more than 3.5 million people defaulted between October and March.

The Fed report offers a look at who is defaulting:

• Most recently, the share of student-loan balances past due increased to just over 10%, nearing prepandemic levels.
• The average borrower in default is more likely to live in the South, though borrowers are defaulting across the country.
• Most of the newly defaulted borrowers weren’t past due on their student loans before the pandemic.
• Borrowers who have defaulted on their student loans are struggling to make other debt payments, too. Nearly 40% of those with auto loans are past due, 56% with at least one credit card are past due and 20% with a mortgage are past due. Loan delinquencies have been broadly trending higher.
• Some of these borrowers are likely parents who borrowed on behalf of their children, New York Fed researchers said.

The report found that Gen X borrowers, including those age 50 to 61, have the highest average student-loan balance of any age group. Many of them either reached college age as the modern federal student-loan system was forming or borrowed later, likely on behalf of their children.  

Just as concerning is that in late 2024, borrowers who missed their student-loan payments saw steep drops in their credit scores for the first time in years. 

The Trump administration has been revamping the federal student-loan system, emphasizing repayment. It is a reversal from the Biden administration, which pushed policies to reduce monthly payments for borrowers and get them closer to student-loan forgiveness. 

The biggest consequence for defaulted borrowers is that they could have their wages, tax returns and Social Security garnished. But the Education Department has delayed its garnishment plans. 

Finally, the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, or SAVE, one of the more affordable student-loan repayment plans introduced by the Biden administration, is ending, forcing millions of borrowers to transition to new plans. The new Repayment Assistance Plan, or RAP, is being introduced in July. As millions of borrowers transition out of SAVE, they will see their monthly payments increase under other income-based repayment plans. Many of them could also default on their student loans in the coming months, according to the Fed.

Source: NY Fed

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 15:40

Illinois Sued Over Allegedly Using Race As A Factor In Congressional Map

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A public interest law firm announced Monday it was suing Illinois over its use of race in drawing congressional maps.

The lawsuit accuses the state of violating the 15th Amendment, which prohibits government from denying a citizen the right to vote based on race, and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in light of a recent Supreme Court ruling, which found district boundaries drawn primarily with racial considerations are unconstitutional.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation filed the lawsuit May 8 in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of Illinois after the high court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29.

“States may not use race to allocate power,” the group’s president and general counsel, John Christian Adams, said.

The suit specifically named Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, the Illinois State Board of Elections, and its executive director Bernadette Matthews as defendants.

None immediately responded to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Pritzker signed a new congressional map for his state in 2021, and he said at the time that the “Illinois Voting Rights Act of 2011 ensures redistricting plans are crafted in a way that preserves clusters of minority voters if they are of size or cohesion to exert collective electoral power. The maps signed into law today meet those requirements to adequately preserve minority representation and reflect the diversity of our state.”

The Public Interest Legal Foundation argued in the lawsuit that this statement from the governor is a direct admission to violating federal law in using race to draw districts.

Furthermore, the Illinois Voting Rights Act of 2011 illegally mandated a racial map, ordering districts to be created as crossover, coalition, or influence districts, the group said.

According to the state’s legislation, a crossover district is where majority voters vote with the racial or language minority to elect their preferred candidate.

A coalition district is where more than one group of racial or language minorities can form a coalition to elect a candidate of all of their choice. An influence district is where a racial or language minority can impact the outcome of an election even if its preferred candidate cannot be elected.

All three types of districts in Illinois require “drawing district lines to preserve deliberate racial percentages, racial majorities, and the deliberate preservation of racial influence districts,” the lawsuit read.

The public interest law firm is representing Jeanne Ives, an Illinois resident, voter, and former state legislator. Attorneys for Ives said she has seen the state’s redistricting up close and how it violates the U.S. Constitution.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation is also currently challenging California’s congressional map, using the Louisiana v. Callais decision to try to invalidate it.

Since that Supreme Court ruling, Republican-led states have leapt at the opportunity to redraw their congressional districts ahead of the midterm elections this year with the GOP’s House majority on the line.

The coast-to-coast redistricting battle has shifted further in favor of Republicans following the high court’s ruling.

On May 8, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed a bill that would authorize a new primary election if a court ruled favorably on the state’s redistricting litigation. Alabama also filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court to rule in its case, which was granted Monday.

Tennessee already passed redistricting legislation to carve up the state’s only blue district.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the Sunshine State’s new map into law on May 4.

A South Carolina plan for redistricting is also advancing through the state’s legislature.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down an attempt at a new map favoring Democrats. The state has now appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation’s lawsuit against Illinois and California’s maps, if successful, could tip the scales toward Republicans and set an example for other Democratic-run states.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 15:25

Trump Ready To Raise "Core Of China's Core Interests" In Xi Summit: Daily Schedule & What To Expect

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to raise the issue of increasingly costly US arms transfers to Taiwan during their bilateral summit at the end of this week, spanning Thursday through Friday. Taiwan of course remains the "core of China's core interests" - as Beijing has in the recent past characterized the issue. While Trump officials have previewed that it will be focused on trade and investment, the White House too is reportedly placing Taiwan and regional geopolitical hot button issues on the agenda.

"I'm going to have that discussion with President Xi," Trump told reporters at the White House, specifically on the question of weapons sales. "President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion. That's one of the many things I’ll be talking about."

via Reuters

Also there's the looming question of the future of the Iran war and blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Currently there's a stalemated situation and supposed ceasefire which is barely holding. By many accounts, Trump was hopeful that the Iran 'excursion' would be wrapped up by now, but it now seems to be sliding into protracted quagmire - critics point out.

The WSJ says that Beijing is feeling confident as it prepares to receive Trump and what's looking to be a rather large entourage:

But behind the scenes, Beijing feels more emboldened, and more insistent on defending areas it regards as vital to its long-term strategic interests.

These include resisting U.S. pressure to relax its grip over global supply chains and fundamentally rebalance trade between the two countries. They also include urging Washington to look the other way as it pressures Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own, and as it projects military power across Asia.

“They feel very well about how last year played out,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution and a former U.S. intelligence officer focused on China. “They showed they could weather the storm and the administration had to climb down from the tariffs and spend most of the past year trying to mollify China.”

As for more implications of the Iran war dragging on as Trump goes to Beijing, CNBC writes:

Iran’s ambassador to China Reza Rahmani Fazli in a Tuesday post on X pressed Tehran's case with Beijing, saying that the relationship between the two is too strong for the U.S. to overcome.

The bottom line is that higher energy prices are baked in for the foreseeable future. The price of crude oil makes up about half of the cost of a gallon of gas, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

And U.S. elections are less than six months away. The 2026 midterm elections will be a crucial referendum on Trump and the Republican Party as they seek to retain a lock on both chambers in Congress.

Trump early Tuesday put out the following message on Truth Social, teasing that the next regime change operations could be unleashed on China's small island-nation ally in America's immediate backyard...

For some further big picture analysis on how the Iran gambit has raised the stakes, and made the Beijing summit more unpredictable, the below is some fresh Rabobank commentary outlining related developments to watch:

In a case of curious timing, the US just imposed fresh sanctions on individuals and firms involved in facilitating Iranian oil sales to China, and Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao yesterday released a new 30-year shipbuilding plan. That plan anticipates the acquisition of 11 nuclear-powered Trump class battleships, new underwater drones, and an ongoing review to the Ford class aircraft carrier design to increase lethality and reliability while reducing unit costs and production lead times. The planned expansion of the US fleet and shipbuilding industrial base is undoubtedly a reaction to China’s growing naval strength and substantial advantage in production capacity. The message to Xi is an unsubtle one.

The FT’s Gideon Rachman characterises Trump as arriving at Xi’s court in a state of supplication, having effectively lost the trade war vs China and the shooting war vs Iran. This perhaps overstates the weakness of Trump’s position by ignoring the fact that the US has tightened its grip on global energy supply chains and has shown that is has the power to put its foot on the hosepipe of Chinese energy imports whenever it likes. In the flurry of commentary over China’s bumper trade surplus in April, it seems to have been missed that import volumes for crude oil were down sharply, but values were higher. Yesterday’s April PPI figures for China also underscored the uncomfortable effects that the Iran war is having on the Chinese industrial economy.

Xi will be acutely aware of this, and he will also be aware that the US holds similar power to disrupt Chinese food imports if it was of a mind to do so. Seapower IS power, as the shipbuilding plan should remind us all. In this respect, Trump holds better cards than the FT is giving him credit for. Perhaps it is no coincidence that China bought more soybeans in April than it had done for months.

Some more of Trump's latest commentary amid his hope for a 'good' Xi meeting:

Trump: If you have the right president, I don't think Taiwan invasion will happen. I have a very good relationship with President Xi.

We're 9,500 miles away. He's 67 miles away. But there’s a lot of support for Taiwan from Japan and countries in that area. 2X pic.twitter.com/8ipHIKy4pM

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) May 12, 2026

Below is a preview of the day-by-day schedule and what to expect, via Newsquawk.

*  *  *

PREVIEW: Trump-Xi Summit to take place in Beijing on May 14th-15th

• US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are set to meet in Beijing for the first time since October 2025. The public tone is expected to be warm and friendly, while the substance of the meeting will cover a range of topics.
• No breakthrough is expected in US-China relations, with attention instead focused on implications for Iran and Taiwan.The situation in Iran will likely be one of the core topics, with some fearing an Iran-for-Taiwan bargain.

SCHEDULE

• Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on the evening of Wednesday, 13th May.
• The main Trump-Xi talks are expected across Thursday, 14th May and Friday, 15th May.

THURSDAY

• The White House said Trump will meet Xi on Thursday at 10:15 Beijing time / 03:15BST / 22:15EDT.
• Thursday is expected to be the main ceremonial and diplomatic day, including a welcome ceremony, Temple of Heaven visit, formal bilateral meeting and state banquet.
• The banquet is scheduled for Thursday at 18:00 Beijing time / 11:00BST / 06:00EDT.

FRIDAY

• Discussions are expected to continue on Friday, including extended talks and a working lunch before Trump’s departure later in the day.

AGENDA

• Iran: A primary focus will be the war in Iran, with the US pressing China to use its influence over Tehran to support de-escalation, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and curb oil-funded escalation.
• Taiwan: Taiwan is expected to be one of the most sensitive issues, with concern focused on whether Xi pushes Trump for softer US language on Taiwan independence or restraint on arms sales.
• Russia: The US is expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including revenue flows, dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons-related support.
• Strategic guardrails: The leaders are expected to discuss a possible formal AI communication channel to manage military and cyber risks, alongside nuclear arms-control issues, although Beijing remains cautious on nuclear arsenal transparency.
• Commercial: The summit could produce major “big win” announcements, including Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, agricultural products such as soybeans and beef, and energy.
• Board of Trade/Investment: Proposals are on the table for a bilateral Board of Trade and Board of Investment, designed to manage trade and investment flows through formal channels rather than relying mainly on tariff escalation.

DETAILS

Iran/Strait of Hormuz

• Primary summit focus: The war in Iran, which began after US and Israeli strikes on 28th February, is expected to be one of the dominant geopolitical issues at the meeting.
• US pressure on Beijing: Washington is said to be pressing China to use its influence over Tehran, given China’s role as a major buyer of Iranian oil, to push Iran towards a deal and support efforts to end the conflict.
• Strait of Hormuz: The US is expected to press China to help secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China’s position: Beijing has so far avoided joining a US-led pressure campaign against Tehran, while continuing to call for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution.
• China’s exposure: China’s dependence on Gulf energy flows gives it a direct interest in ending the Hormuz disruption.
• Sanctions: Days before the summit, on May 11th, the US issued new sanctions against three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.

Taiwan

• Arms sales: Trump said he will discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, alongside other sensitive issues, including Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai. The Trump admin announced a more than USD 11bln weapons package for Taiwan in December, the largest-ever US weapons package for Taiwan.
• No policy change: US officials have said the Trump-Xi summit signals no change in longstanding US policy toward Taiwan.
• China’s position: China said its stance against US arms sales to Taiwan is “consistent and clear.” Beijing continues to frame Taiwan as a core issue and a red line in US-China relations.
• Semiconductor angle: Taiwan’s strategic importance is also tied to the US technology supply chain, particularly semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.
• South China Sea: Regional security is likely to come up alongside Taiwan, military communication and wider US-China strategic competition. The South China Sea remains a persistent flashpoint, with US concerns around Chinese military activity and Chinese objections to US regional deployments and alliances in the region, such as the AUKUS security pact.

Iran-for-Taiwan Risk

• Linkage: There has been reporting and speculation that Beijing could seek to trade help on Iran or the Strait of Hormuz for US restraint on Taiwan, including softer language on Taiwan independence or reduced pressure around arms sales.
• Concerns: The concern is that Beijing may offer help on Iran or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in return for softer US language on Taiwan or restraint on arms sales. Politico reported that diplomats from Asian and European countries are worried Trump could make an off-script statement that appears to shift US policy on Taiwan. Taiwanese officials have expressed concern about being “on the menu” during the Trump-Xi talks.
• Shift in Language: The key wording risk is a shift from the current US formulation of “we do not support Taiwan independence” to Beijing’s preferred wording of “we oppose Taiwan independence.” Desks suggest that a shift would be significant as Beijing could use it to challenge routine US-Taiwan engagement, including arms sales, lawmaker visits and other political contacts.
• US Position: Despite the speculation, US officials have publicly stated that US policy toward Taiwan will not change at the summit.

China's Backing of Iran and Russia

• Direct confrontation: Trump is expected to press Xi over China’s economic and material support for Iran and Russia.
• Iranian oil: China remains a major buyer of Iranian oil, and Washington views those flows as helping Tehran withstand US pressure and finance military activity.
• Russia links: The US is also expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including whether Chinese trade is helping Moscow sustain its war effort.
• Dual-use goods: Officials cited concerns around Chinese dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons exports to Iran and Russia.
• Iran weapons sanctions: On 8th May, the US imposed sanctions on individuals and companies, including China- and Hong Kong-based entities, accused of helping Iran obtain materials for Shahed drones and ballistic missiles.
• Iran oil sanctions: On 11 May, the US imposed separate sanctions on three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.
• 50% tariff threat: Trump previously threatened 50% tariffs on imports from countries supplying military weapons to Iran, with no exemptions.

Trade

• Trump tariff stance: Trump commented that the US needs more tariffs, keeping tariff risk firmly on the table.
• Trade-truce extension: The two sides are expected to discuss whether to extend the existing trade-war truce.
• Unclear timing: A US official said it is not yet clear whether the agreement will be extended this week, but expressed confidence that it will eventually be extended.
• October meeting: Trump and Xi's last meeting in October in South Korea resulted in a pause to a trade war that had seen the US impose triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threaten rare earth restrictions.
• Tariff Legality: Trump has vowed to reimpose some tariffs through alternative legal avenues after the Supreme Court said in February.
• Investments
• Trade and investment forums: Reports suggested that the US and China are expected to agree on forums to facilitate mutual trade and investment.
• Board of Trade / Board of Investment: A Board of Trade and Board of Investment may be formally announced, although officials said these mechanisms may require further work before implementation.
• Chinese purchase announcements: China is expected to announce purchases related to Boeing (BA) aircraft, US agriculture and energy.
• Sectors to watch: The main areas to watch are aircraft, agriculture, energy, trade flows, investment access, market-opening commitments, payments access, technology restrictions and regulatory approvals.
• Delegation: Executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) are part of, or linked to, the US business delegation. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending due to earnings, while NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is not attending.

AI

• AI channel: Trump and Xi are expected to discuss creating a formal US-China communication channel on AI-related security risks.
• US concern: US officials are increasingly concerned about advanced Chinese AI models and their potential military, cyber and intelligence uses.
• Military risk: Talks are expected to cover AI risks in autonomous weapons, cyber operations and military decision-making.
• Nuclear guardrails: AI may also be discussed alongside nuclear stability, including keeping AI out of nuclear launch decisions.
• Export controls: Any AI dialogue will sit against the backdrop of US chip controls and wider tech restrictions on China.
• Nuclear arms-control
• US stance: Washington has long sought nuclear arms-control talks with Beijing.
• China's stance: China has privately told the US it has no current interest in sitting down for nuclear arms-control discussions.
• No breakthrough: Expectations for a breakthrough on nuclear arms control remain low, but even agreement to continue dialogue would be net constructive.

Fentanyl

• US stance: The US is expected to press China on precursor chemicals and enforcement against supply chains linked to the opioid crisis.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 15:00

CME Launching Futures Market For AI Compute

US derivatives exchange CME Group and index provider Silicon Data have teamed up to create a futures market for computing power, a key source driving the AI boom. Bloomberg reports that the futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings. Indexes from market-intelligence firm Silicon Data will help underpin the products. The project is still pending regulatory review.

“As the backbone of the digital economy, compute is the new oil of the 21st century,” CME CEO Terry Duffy said in the statement. “Every AI model trained, every transaction cleared and every byte of data processed runs on compute, which is becoming a fast-emerging asset class in its own right.”

CME’s addition of compute futures signals a broader shift to make the asset tradable like other commodities. Creating a futures market can help make the costs more transparent and raise overall market efficiency. 

Computing power, better known as "compute", has seen soaring demand as AI companies use it to power their systems. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said last week that a new asset class will likely be buying futures of compute given the shortage and high demand.

Futures contracts, which give investors the ability to bet on the future value of a commodity such as oil or metals at a certain date, are traded on exchanges such as Chicago-based CME’s, and require a brokerage account that’s approved to trade futures.

The need for compute power has been growing as AI technologies have scaled. But until now, it’s been difficult to hedge against price swings and other costs.

The index from Silicon Data, which is backed by trading firm DRW Holdings, provides a benchmark for traders and others to follow, giving insight into the cost of goods for those building AI products or in need of graphics processing unit computing power.

Silicon Data, founded by former DRW trader Carmen Li, created daily GPU benchmarks for on-demand rental rates, giving customers insight into the cost of goods for those building AI products or in need of GPU computing power.

The company’s Silicon Data H100 Rental Index tracks the hourly cost of renting a GPU, which is the workhorse for training AI models.

A data center typically uses hundreds or even thousands of processors, which can cost thousands of dollars.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 14:55

Labor Unions Join Banking Industry In Opposition To Senate Crypto Bill, The Clarity Act

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

Five of the nation’s largest labor organizations are urging the Senate to vote against a pending cryptocurrency market structure bill, warning that the legislation would expose retirement accounts to digital asset volatility ahead of a key committee vote Thursday.

The AFL-CIO, Service Employees International Union, American Federation of Teachers, National Education Association, and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees sent letters and emails to Senate Banking Committee members, according to CNBC, which obtained the correspondence first.

The crypto industry takes ‘risks’

The groups wrote that the bill “jeopardizes the stability of workers’ retirement plans, including public pensions, and introduces significant volatility to retirement savings accounts.”

“This legislation invites the cryptocurrency industry to take outsized risks, knowing that if those risky bets do not pay off, it is working people and retirees, not crypto billionaires, who will pay the price,” the unions wrote in a joint letter to all senators.

The AFL-CIO, in a separate email to Banking Committee members, warned that “absent sufficient regulation, embedding cryptocurrencies and other digital assets into the real economy will have a destabilizing effect, while benefiting issuers and platforms at the expense of working people.”

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark up and vote on the bill Thursday. Despite months of bipartisan talks, it remains unclear whether any Democrats on the committee will vote in favor of the measure. Several lawmakers say the bill needs more work on ethics, conflict-of-interest, and security provisions.

Labor groups are not the sole source of opposition. The American Bankers Association has also pushed back on updated language in the bill concerning stablecoin holdings. ABA CEO Rob Nichols wrote to bank executives on May 10 that a provision barring cryptocurrency firms from paying yield on payment stablecoins remains a threat to traditional bank deposits, arguing it would “unnecessarily incentivize the flight of bank deposits.” 

The crypto industry, in contrast, has backed the revised language, with Coinbase voicing support for the restriction.

Michael Saylor chimes in

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor took a position in favor of the legislation. In a post on X, Saylor wrote that the bill “would unlock the next wave of Digital Capital, Digital Credit, and Digital Equity in the U.S. and globally,” calling it a framework for “STRC-powered digital yield markets” and a signal of “institutional validation for BTC.”

The key language: the bill recognizes activity-based rewards tied to payment stablecoins and distributed ledger participation as “critical to enabling innovation, competition, and consumer adoption.” That is the path to responsible digital yield markets. https://t.co/PTpjmmkqO1

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) May 12, 2026

The crypto industry has identified the bill as its top legislative priority this session. Whether that momentum carries through committee — and into a full Senate vote — now depends on resolving opposition from organized labor, traditional banks, and a block of Senate Democrats who have yet to commit their support.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 14:40