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New FAA Rule Allows Private Jet Owners To Hide Travel Information From Public

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is implementing a data privacy policy that allows people with private jets to hide travel information from the public.

Private jets are seen on the tarmac at Friedman Memorial Airport ahead of the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho on July 4, 2022. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

“Private aircraft owners and operators can now electronically request that the FAA withhold their aircraft registration information from public view,” the agency said in a March 28 statement.

“Starting today, they can submit a request through the Civil Aviation Registry Electronic Services (CARES) to withhold this information from public display on all FAA websites.”

In its statement, the FAA said the data protection decision was taken based on a privacy provision included in the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024.

The provision allows aircraft owners to request that certain personally identifiable information not be made publicly available via FAA websites.

“The FAA will publish a request for comment in the Federal Register to seek input on this measure, including whether removing the information would affect the ability of stakeholders to perform necessary functions, such as maintenance, safety checks, and regulatory compliance,” said the agency.

“The FAA is also evaluating whether to default to withholding the personally identifiable information of private aircraft owners and operators from the public aircraft registry.”

While some say that such trackers allow people to record carbon emission info, there have been concerns that monitoring aircraft movements puts at risk the people who use that mode of transportation, often high-profile individuals.

The new rule could negatively affect jet trackers that use FAA information as a key source to track and report flight details of famous personalities.

In December 2023, attorneys for Taylor Swift issued a cease-and-desist letter to a university student, blaming his automated tracking of her private jet travel for revealing the celebrity’s whereabouts to stalkers.

The letter accused the student of “willful and repeated harassment” as well as “intentional, offensive, and outrageous conduct and consistent violations” of Swift’s privacy.

Attorneys alleged that the student essentially offered “individuals intent on harming her, or with nefarious or violent intentions, a roadmap to carry out their plans.”

In 2022, social media platform X, then named Twitter, suspended several accounts that tracked private planes, including those of Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Elon Musk. The platform prohibited the sharing of real-time location data, citing a “risk of physical harm.”

Some cite the high carbon emissions to question the integrity of wealthy celebrities and politicians who advocate fighting climate change while flying around in private jets.

In 2023, Klara Maria Schenk, a transport campaigner for Greenpeace’s European mobility campaign, called the use of private jets at the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting a “distasteful masterclass of hypocrisy” since the WEF said it is committed to tackling the so-called human-induced or anthropogenic climate concerns.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 14:00

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Firing Federal Employees On Probation In 19 States

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge on April 1 indefinitely blocked President Donald Trump’s administration from quickly firing thousands of probationary federal workers in 19 states and Washington, narrowing a nationwide order issued last month.

Protesters hold signs at a rally in support of federal workers at the Office of Personnel Management in Washington, on March 4, 2025. Alex Wroblewski/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. District Judge James Bredar in Baltimore, Maryland, had already ruled on March 13 that the administration should have provided advance notice when it terminated at least 11,000 workers without notifying states and local governments in advance.

The judge had ordered the administration to reinstate the fired workers at 18 agencies by March 17.

Bredar’s latest decision replaces that order but also covers two additional agencies: the Defense Department and the Office of Personnel Management.

In handing down his decision, the judge said that the federal government may “terminate probationary employees en masse (i.e., dismiss them via a reduction in force, or ‘RIF’)” but that when it does, it “must follow certain laws and regulations.”

“Recently, government agencies executed a series of mass terminations, but when they did so, on the record before the Court, they failed to follow mandatory RIF procedures,” the judge wrote.

Bredar found the Trump administration “probably broke the laws that regulate en masse terminations of government employees, and this to the continuing and irreparable harm of the Plaintiff States.”

He noted, however, that his order only applies to employees who either live or work in the mostly Democratic-led states that, along with Washington, D.C., sued over the mass firings.

“Perhaps a broader injunction would be in order if this action were on behalf of the thousands of employees who were laid off, the circumstances of each likely being similar if not identical to those of the others, and there being little doubt that the harms visited on some were representative of those experienced by all, or almost all. But this is not that case,” Bredar wrote.

“Only states have sued here, and only to vindicate their interests as states. They are not proxies for the workers.”

Agencies Covered by Court Ruling

The judge noted that while “each state is entitled to decide for itself whether it will seek relief in the present circumstances,” it would “be inappropriate for the Court to fashion relief having the consequence that decisions properly reserved to the non-party states are effectively, and unnecessarily overruled by this Court.”

Bredar’s ruling covers workers at the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs.

Additionally, terminated probationary workers at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, General Services Administration, Small Business Administration, and the U.S. Agency for International Development are covered by the orders, along with those from the Defense Department and the Office of Personnel Management.

The employees covered by the order must work in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin, or Washington, D.C.

Bredar’s ruling is in response to a March 6 lawsuit filed by a coalition of mostly Democratic-led states who sued nearly two dozen federal agencies over the probationary worker firings.

In their lawsuit, the states, led by Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown, argued the move was illegal because the agencies had failed to comply with legal requirements for RIFs, including providing 60 days of advance notice to workers and states.

The Trump administration has appealed Bredar’s earlier decision, claiming the firings were lawful and that the judge lacked the power to require workers to be reinstated.

A U.S. appeals court panel earlier in March declined to put Bredar’s ruling on hold.

The Epoch Times has contacted the White House and the Maryland Attorney General’s Office for comment.

Zachary Stieber and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 13:20

Will Today's Trump Moves Force The Fed To Act?

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Apparently today at 4:00 pm we will learn the details of this wave of tariffs.

Treasury Secretary said yesterday that this will represent a “cap” on tariffs and basically the starting point of negotiations from here (we will see if that messaging sticks).

What I think we know:

• Relatively little “negotiating” has occurred, which I believe is not what the administration expected. Other countries are “playing” the President differently than they did during Trump 1.0. It also probably doesn’t help that this time around, there is no “divide and conquer”.

• Other countries are already having conversations about trade, bypassing the U.S.  Apparently, Japan, China and South Korea are talking. That makes sense as the U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unclear and that could dramatically impact South Korea and Japan. Canada and Mexico are apparently having discussions. I’m sure Europe (or some countries within Europe) are having a variety of trade dialogues (it is really, really, really important to notice that they do not want to spend their increased military spending on U.S. equipment – to the extent they can avoid it).

• Other countries are likely going through their tariffs, line by line, estimating which ones they can give in on, with minimal impact and which ones are important. Given that the U.S. is fighting with everyone and allegedly still hasn’t finalized its plan, we are likely to not fare well at the granular level.

• The Geopolitical actions so far – from NATO, to Russia/Ukraine, to 51st State, to “take” Greenland, etc., have only added to the questions about dealing with the U.S. that other countries have.

• The U.S. does not have a lot of excess capacity (it will take time to build) and so far no legislation on the deregulation front  

Deliberate/Thoughtful Tariffs :

• Risk Assets can and should rally. If these sort of tariffs had been the starting point, we could probably move on. But they weren’t and coupled with the issues listed above, I think the rally will stall. It will need indications that global tensions with trading partners have eased to reduce. It will be curious to see how his base responds? Will there be any erosion of the aura of “the art of the deal”?

Medium Level of Tariffs:

• Anything less than 15% to 20% across the board tariffs. I expect slight risk asset rally (market seem desperate to rally on certainty) but think that fades quickly and we drift lower, trading on headlines going forward. 

Aggressive Tariffs

• Immediate sell-off in risk assets. Stocks drop 3% or more quickly with ongoing selling pressure. 10-year treasury likely breaks 4%.

I hear a lot of chatter that the policies will force the Fed to act. 

Maybe but, I think the Fed will act late and it will be too small relative to the total revamp of global trade to stop the slide. 

There were a lot of easier ways to get the Fed to cut – like stick to “drill baby drill”, reduce regulations (ideally via legislation as opposed to executive orders), etc. 

The whole “this is all to get the Fed to cut” is incredibly risky (who knows what was set in motion) and only seems to have gotten traction because Wall Street doesn’t want to believe how much this administration believes in the benefits of tariffs.

Hopefully I will be disappointed and wrong and markets can rally and threats to the global economy can be greatly reduced, but I think once we get beyond debating the tariffs, we will be forced to digest the mess that global trade is in, and that cannot be good for corporate earnings or the economy.

For better or for worse, here is Academy on Bloomberg TV this morning, where, the jetlag worked in my favor as I was up at 3 am anyways 

Should be an interesting few days, to say the least!

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 12:40

Putin Envoy Visits Washington For Talks In First Since 2022 Ukraine Invasion

Earlier this week the Kremlin said it has given the Trump White House formal notification and evidence showing that Ukraine has continued attacking Russian energy sites, despite the US-backed agreement for each side to refrain from hitting this infrastructure.

On Wednesday Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that so far there's been no response from the Trump administration. "So far, there has been no reaction to such actions by the Kiev regime," Peskov said.

Previously Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described that a list of violations had been handed over to US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Russia’s representatives in the UN and the OSCE, "so that they in their work would present concrete facts demonstrating what the word of the Ukrainian authorities is worth," according to TASS.

Kirill Dmitriev (right) is in Washington this week. Getty Images

But Ukraine has said it has done the same thing, as both sides have lately accused the other of violating the partial ceasefire. "We have passed on all the necessary information about Russian violations in the energy sector," President Zelensky said in a Tuesday evening address.

He has called on Washington to strengthen sanctions on Russia, and as of Thursday the US Treasury has issued some further anti-Russia sanctions on its website.

"I believe we have come to the point of increasing the sanctions impact, because I believe that the Russians are violating what they have promised America. At least what America has told us, and publicly," Zelensky said.

This week for the first time a top Russian negotiator and Putin representative will meet with Trump official Steve Witkoff in Washington. The US has temporarily waved sanctions on the Russian official in order to grant him a visa for the visit.

"His visit will mark the first time a senior Russian official has visited Washington, DC, for talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and marks a further step in the marked warming in relations between the two countries since President Donald Trump returned to office in January," CNN writes.

Kirill Dmitriev is a "close adviser to Putin and traveled with top Russian officials to Riyadh in Saudi Arabia in February to start discussing a settlement for the end of the war in Ukraine," the report notes. "He also worked with Witkoff to free American teacher Marc Fogel from Russia, which the Trump administration hailed as a goodwill gesture."

As for where overall negotiations to end the war in Ukraine stand, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Tuesday that current US proposals on ending the war can't be accepted in their current form.

Assuming CNN is accurate, Putin is sending a Harvard-educated financier—not a general, politician or spymaster—to meet Trump’s team in DC. Dmitriev runs Russia’s sovereign wealth fund. Until a month ago, he wasn’t even a Kremlin official. It says a lot about Moscow’s game plan. https://t.co/s6sOwpjJW6

— Brian McDonald (@27khv) April 1, 2025

He complained they don't address the "root causes" and that Kiev doesn't appear ready to get serious about pursuing peace.

“What we have today is an effort to find a framework that would make it possible to ensure America’s vision for a ceasefire. The idea is to then move on to some other models and frameworks, which, as far as we can see, leave no room for Russia’s core demand, that is, the need to resolve the issues stemming from the root causes of this conflict,” he said, as quoted in TASS.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 12:00

How Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Are Set To Reshape Global Trade

Authored by Emel Akan and Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs for all nations starting April 2, the date he has dubbed “Liberation Day.”

Companies, markets, and governments are on edge, expecting the move to send shockwaves across the globe.

Liberation Day will impact all countries, Trump told reporters over the weekend aboard Air Force One. However, some countries will be more vulnerable due to their high trade imbalances with the United States and significant trade barriers against American goods, including China, India, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea.

The president will reveal details of his tariff plan at a White House Rose Garden event Wednesday afternoon after the stock markets close.

Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on March 31, Trump stated that his tariff rates will be lower—and in certain instances “substantially lower”—than what other countries have been charging the United States.

“We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were,” the president said. “We have a world obligation, perhaps, but we’re going to be very nice, relatively speaking. We’re going to be very kind.”

On Feb. 13, the president unveiled the concept, describing it as a “fair and reciprocal plan” for trade by raising U.S. levies to match duties that other nations impose on U.S. products.

He instructed his team to assess and recommend tariffs on countries that impose significant barriers to U.S. products, including tariffs, value-added taxes, and other non-tariff restrictions. The assessment will also consider the foreign exchange policies of America’s trading partners.

Trump’s tariff policies are anticipated to have a significantly broader impact on products, industries, and countries affected by tariffs compared to previous administrations. According to an estimate by consulting firm PwC, the measures could increase U.S. tariff revenues from $76 billion annually to almost $697 billion.

A key objective behind the administration’s tariff plans is to reverse America’s decades-long trade deficit.

The United States has recorded trade deficits every year since 1976. Last year, the U.S. goods and services trade gap surpassed $918 billion—a 17 percent increase from 2023.

Many factors have contributed to this decades-long trend. A low national savings rate, for example, has resulted in a higher dependence on foreign capital to fund investments. Foreign markets’ comparative advantage, mainly in the form of lower labor costs, has also led to cheaper imports, satisfying ferocious domestic consumption.

White House officials, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, believe tariffs could be a part of the solution to undo ongoing trade deficits.

“Part of the question is how large of a trade deficit do we want, because the trade deficit represents, in large part, manufacturing jobs that have [gone] overseas,” Greer told the Senate Finance Committee in February.

He also noted that worsening trade imbalances with particular countries were a “huge problem.”

In 2024, China ranked first, with the U.S. trade deficit reaching $295 billion. This was followed by the European Union ($236 billion), Mexico ($172 billion), Vietnam ($124 billion), Taiwan ($74 billion), and Japan ($69 billion).

Economists argue that the administration’s sweeping trade policy changes will have the greatest impact on industries that have traditionally benefited from low or no tariffs. As a result, these industries will be forced to evaluate the costs and benefits—such as logistics, tax rates, and tariffs—of relocating production to the United States.

Last year, the top U.S. importer jurisdictions were Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan.

Sectors Most Affected By New Tariffs

Higher tariff rates will impact a wide range of sectors and countries.

Automobile manufacturing in Canada, Germany, Japan, and Mexico could be the hardest hit. The auto industry will navigate potential disruptions from reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s higher import duties on steel, aluminum, foreign vehicles, and car parts.

Canada’s oil and gas sector is also expected to be hammered. The United States imports more than 4 million barrels of crude per day—up significantly from 15 years ago.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has already imposed tariffs on China over its failure to address its role in illicit fentanyl trafficking into the United States. Now, with the introduction of  reciprocal tariffs, China could face major disruptions in its exports of smartphone technology and lithium-ion batteries, the two items most heavily shipped to the United States.

Other industries facing significant impacts include critical medicines and health care equipment, which are primarily sourced from India, Ireland, and Switzerland.

The European Union and emerging markets could take a hit from reciprocal tariffs, says Mary Park Durham, a research analyst at JPMorgan Chase.

First, the E.U. accounts for approximately one-fifth of U.S. imports and registered a trade surplus.

“While the U.S. and EU have similar average tariff rates of 3.4% and 4.1% on each other’s imports, respectively, disparities arise at the product level,” she said in a note.

The U.S. government has highlighted the bloc’s value-added taxes (VATs), which it views as tariffs. VATs are consumption taxes absorbed by producers at each stage in the supply chain and consumers at the point of sale. The EU’s VAT rate averages 20 percent, higher than the average U.S. sales tax rate of 6.6 percent.

While the U.S. Trade Representative’s 2025 National Trade Estimate Report did not specify Europe’s VATs, White House officials have rebuked the policy, calling it a “double whammy.”

“No wonder Germany sells eight times as many cars to us as we do to them, and President Trump is no longer going to tolerate that,” an official told reporters in February.

Second, emerging markets such as Brazil and India maintain high average tariff rates on all imports. These countries generally impose higher import duties to shield vulnerable domestic industries from foreign competition.

“The difference in tariff rates between emerging markets and the U.S. in their bilateral trade tends to be wider than that for developed markets,” said Brian Coulton, the chief economist at Fitch Ratings, in a report.

Brazil and India were spotlighted as examples of unfair trade practices in a White House fact sheet.

Brazil charges U.S. ethanol exports an 18 percent levy, compared to the U.S. rate of 2.5 percent. “As a result, in 2024, the U.S. imported over $200 million in ethanol from Brazil while the U.S. exported only $52 million in ethanol to Brazil,” the document stated.

India, meanwhile, imposes a 100 percent tariff on U.S. motorcycles. Conversely, the United States adds a 2.4 percent levy on Indian motorcycles, the White House said.

Countries Offering Concessions

A Bank of America report showed that the United States has the lowest trade barrier of any Group of 20 (G20) nations; the world’s largest economies.

“We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on March 28.

However, he said many countries are willing to make concessions and he didn’t rule out making deals with those countries.

“It’s possible if we can get something for the deal,” Trump said. “I’m certainly open to that.”

Some countries have already begun offering concessions. On April 1, Israel announced that it will remove all remaining tariffs on American products.

Prior to his long-awaited reciprocal tariff roll out, Trump has threatened to impose levies on friends and foes alike.

During the campaign trail and shortly after winning the election, the president said he would impose 100 percent tariffs on countries that engage in anti-dollar activities.

He also threatened 25 percent tariffs on Colombian agricultural products over a short-lived spat involving President Gustavo Petro’s refusal to accept its nationals deported from the United States. Trump rescinded the levies once Petro caved and accepted his citizens.

After Ontario Premier Doug Ford vowed to cut off electricity flowing from the Canadian province to several U.S. states, Trump stated he would double tariffs on Canada. He reversed the decision after Ford confirmed he would not shut off the power or add taxes to electricity exports.

Trump recently revealed that he plans to announce tariffs on lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.

A car hauler truck makes its way to the Ambassador Bridge to cross into Detroit from Windsor, Canada, on April 1, 2025. President Donald Trump has been referring to April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when his administration will begin implementing sweeping new tariffs on goods imported into the United States from other countries. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Days after implementing a blanket 25 percent tariff on cars and light trucks manufactured outside the United States, the president stated that he doesn’t care if automakers raise car prices for Americans.

If prices on foreign automobiles increase, customers will shift their buying preferences to American-made vehicles, he said.

“I couldn’t care less. I hope they raise their prices because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty,” Trump said in an interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker.

He added that higher prices would bolster U.S.-based manufacturers.

“If you make your car in the United States, you’re going to make a lot of money,” the president said. “If you don’t, you’re going to have to probably come to the United States, because if you make your car in the United States, there is no tariff.”

Auto tariffs are scheduled to take effect on April 3 and will be permanent.

Various individuals have been integral in crafting the president’s tariff plans.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on March 31 that Vice President JD Vance has been “deeply involved” in trade discussions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, White House economist Kevin Hassett, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and senior counselor for trade and manufacturing Peter Navarro, have all contributed to shaping the tariff regime.

“All of these individuals have presented plans to the president on how to get this done, and it’s the president’s decision to make,” Leavitt said.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 1, 2025. Stocks opened up low as the market reacts to President Donald Trump's April 2 expected proposal for a round of new tariffs. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Tariffs Fuel Market Volatility

Financial markets have wiped out trillions of dollars in value over the last several weeks. Investors fear that tariffs will revive inflation and slow economic growth—surveys suggest the United States could slip into a recession.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped 5 percent in March. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1 percent last month. The broader S&P 500 has trimmed 3 percent to finish the first quarter.

Gold prices have extended their gains from last year, reaching a record high of $3,100 per ounce. The yellow metal gained 19 percent in the first quarter, fueled by strengthening safe-haven demand amid market turmoil.

U.S. Treasury yields have slumped since reaching a mid-January peak as traders concentrate on the economy’s long-term prospects.

The benchmark 10-year yield has fallen about 65 basis points to below 4.16 percent.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a metric of the greenback against a basket of currencies, has declined 4 percent this year. Tariffs and structural changes have fueled the recent weakness.

Uncertainty has been a sizable force behind the enormous volatility but April 2 should resolve some of the anxieties plaguing investors, says Jeffrey Buchbinder, the chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.

“April 2 is a big day for the stock market,” Buchbinder said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. “There will still be trade policy uncertainty after that date but the Trump administration is expected to clear up some of the biggest questions investors have right now.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 11:40

China Restricts Local Firms From Investing In US As Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs D-Day Arrives

Hours before President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs—threatening to unleash a global trade war on what he has called "Liberation Day"—the Chinese Communist Party is already preparing a financial counteroffensive. 

Bloomberg cites people familiar with the matter who say Beijing plans to restrict local companies from investing in the United States. This move would give the world's second-largest economy more economic leverage in trade negotiations as Sino-U.S. tensions deteriorate.

Here's more from the report:

Several branches of China's top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for firms that are looking to invest in the U.S., the people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.

. . .

There's no sign that existing commitments by Chinese companies in the U.S. and elsewhere, or China's purchases and holdings of financial products including U.S. Treasuries, would be affected, the people said. It's unclear what prompted the NDRC to halt the processing of applications or how long this suspension might last.

The economic decoupling between the U.S. and China continues to accelerate, driven by trade wars and President Trump, who believes, as he said over the weekend to NBC: "The world has been ripping off the United States for the last 40 years and more ... and all we're doing is being fair."

Source Bloomberg

Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs and China's reported move to restrict outbound investment from local companies into the U.S. signals a new phase of superpower decoupling. This decoupling has been happening across multiple areas:

• Technology 

• Capital Flows

• Trade  

Goldman analyst Chloe Garber commented on the BBG report, noting:

BBG reported this morning that China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the U.S. ahead of new tariffs, people familiar said. Several branches of China's top economic planning agency have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for such firms. Simply put – there are a lot of unknowns here still and mkts hate the uncertainty.

With just hours to go before Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement—expected around 4 p.m.—here's everything you need to know to stay on top of the tariff news cycle (read: here).

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 11:20

WTI 'Steady' Near 5-Week Highs As 'Drill Baby Drill' Lifts US Crude Production

Crude prices continue to tread water above $70 (WTI) this morning (holding Monday's gains on potential sanctions on Russian oil), drifting modestly lower aftr API reported a large crude build overnight ahead of new supply coming this month as OPEC+ begins to unwind 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts.

However the new supply is being offset with tightened U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, while Trump this week threatened to impose secondary tariffs on U.S. imports from countries buying Russian oil.

"Crude prices paused last month's rally, with Brent finding some resistance above USD 75, with the focus-for now-turning from a sanctions-led reduction in supply to Trump's tariff announcement and its potential negative impact on growth and demand," Saxo Bank noted.

DOE

• Crude +6.165mm

• Cushing +2.373mm - biggest build since Jan 2023

• Gasoline -1.551mm

• Distillates +264k

The official data confirmed API's report that Crude inventories saw a large build last week. Stocks at the Cushing hub also soared (most since Jan 2023) as Gasoline stocks fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Including a 285k barrel addition to the SPR, last week saw the largest total crude inventory build since the last week of January...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production was steady at record highs as Trump's 'drill baby drill' plan appears to be working with the rig count rising notably...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding above $71 for now (near 5-week highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the tariffs add to a deluge of conflicting drivers from energy markets since Trump came into office. Sanctions threaten to curb supply from Russia and Iran, even as a production boost by OPEC and its allies starting this month exacerbates concerns a glut is looming later this year.

“We expect a wait-and-see stance in the oil market today until more clarity emerges on Trump’s tariff plans,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “That said, there is a risk that the oil price may decline today, driven by concerns that tariffs will significantly hinder growth.”

Oil prices continue to hover near five-wek highs after the Trump administration threatened to impose steep tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian crude, Rystad Energy reported in an analysis piece.. The move, aimed at pressuring Moscow into a ceasefire with Ukraine, added a new layer of geopolitical uncertainty to the market.

'The market is still digesting what these newly proposed tariffs mean for peace negotiations,' said Janiv Shah, Rystad’s vice president of oil.

Shah noted that if the tariff strategy proves effective in encouraging a Russia-Ukraine truce, the measures could be short-lived. However, he warned the tariffs could have diverging effects: “bullish for crude oil and bearish for products.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 10:45

Why The Global Recession Will Be Deeper And Longer Than Pundits Anticipate

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate.

While everyone focuses on conflicts between nations, few look at the problems shared by nations. Richard Bonugli and I discuss both sets of problems in our latest podcast.

The conflict sphere is dominated by the trade wars that are bubbling up here in the first inning of the global rebalancing of national interests and global trade/financial frameworks. Supporting these frameworks benefits participating nations until they don't, at which point they're jettisoned.

The conviction that these frameworks, linch-pinned by the U.S. since the end of World War II in 1945, no longer serve America's core national security interests, is reaching a rough consensus, and as a result some describe the U.S. as a "rogue superpower." In other words, now that the U.S. is no longer the dumping ground for global surpluses of production, it's seen as "going rogue."

There's a certain naivete in the notion that any nation acts selflessly for the good of all. All nation-states act in their own interests, just as global corporations act to optimize shareholder value and profits while proclaiming the wonderfulness of their products and services. Nations support cooperative arrangements when it benefits them, and exit those arrangements when they morph from benefit to burden.

This rebalancing of cooperation and self-interest is taking place in the larger context of non-trade problems shared by all developed nations. Developing nations share many of these same problems as well: soaring debt loads, resource scarcities, corruption, mal-investment, high inflation, stagnating economies, aging populations, shrinking workforces, rising social costs and massive public health issues, many of which have been expanding rapidly behind the focus on trade and conflicting interests.

The ubiquity of these issues is striking. In some ways, developed nations share more problems than they seem to realize. Consider the global rise of lifestyle diseases generated by dramatic shifts in diets and fitness. These manifest as metabolic disorders (prediabetes, diabetes) and a broad range of other chronic diseases such as heart disease and cancers.

Metabolic disorders generated by changing lifestyles are now weighing heavily on nations around the world, from the U.S. and Mexico to China, India, the Mideast and beyond.

The problems generated by aging populations and declining birthrates are also shared by many nations. The same is true of rising debt levels, both public and private, which threaten to destabilize economies via either ruinously high inflation or fiscal frugality, i.e. austerity. Here is total credit in the U.S., a sobering chart that mirrors the debt loads of many other nations--debt that is outstripping GDP and income as interest rates rise in the new era of global inflationary forces.

The world's nations have awakened to the risks of becoming dependent on other nations for essential commodities, manufactured goods and markets. Tariffs may well be merely the at-bat players in the first innings. If history is any guide, outright bans on imports from selected nations will eventually be viewed as the only available option to rebalance national security priorities.

The degrees of national dependence will become increasingly consequential as mercantilist nations that have relied on exports for growth will find markets for their exports shutting down, crippling domestic growth. Nations that attempt to become self-sufficient will find the demands for capital investment will pressure consumer spending, even as the decline of cheap imports institutionalizes inflation and price increases that outstrip wage increases.

Stagflation will hinder both investment and consumer spending. Austerity will crimp fiscal borrowing and spending, and capital sloshing around the world seeking low-risk returns will face unprecedented challenges as capital controls proliferate and nations change the rules overnight.

I often focus on scale because this is a limiting factor. While there may well be growth opportunities for investing in developing nations, the scale of capital sloshing around global markets will find the investment pipelines the equivalent of a straw: there is no way to deploy $100 billion in small markets and economies, never mind $1 trillion or $10 trillion.

As Immanuel Wallerstein observed, Capitalism may no longer be attractive to capitalists as all these dynamics play out in a vast, inter-connected, unpredictable rebalancing of global interests and increasingly destabilizing attempts to solve complex, intractable problems with cobbled-together expediencies or doing more of what's already failed.

There won't be any "saves" in this rebalancing, and so the global recession will be deeper and longer than those relying on models based on the past two decades of hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization anticipate.

New podcast: The Coming Global Recession will be Longer and Deeper than Most Analysts Anticipate (42 min)

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 10:20

US Factory Orders Surge Near Record Highs In Feb (Ignoring 'Soft' Data Slump)

Despite all the 'soft' data slumping and legacy media narrative creation that a recession is imminent, US Factory Orders (hard data) surged for the second month in a row (beating expectations). Headline factory orders rose 0.6% MoM (+0.5% MoM exp) in March and February's 1.7% MoM jump was revised up to +1.8% MoM. This left Factory Orders up 2.5% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Factory Orders (excluding the more volatile Transportation sector) rose 0.4% MoM - accelerating on a MoM basis for the sixth straight month...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, February's rise lifted US Factory Orders very close to record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

So much for the 'soft' data-driven recession talk?

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 10:11

Meta To Expand Ray-Ban Smart Glasses Lineup With Display-Enabled Model

Since late summer or fall of 2024, Ray-Ban Meta Glasses have surged in popularity with US consumers, a trend we previously highlighted citing several Goldman reports. The data was primarily based on app downloads worldwide. 

Source: Goldman's Jack McFerran

Building on this momentum, Mark Zuckerberg's Meta's Reality Labs division is preparing to capture further market share in the smart glasses segment by releasing a new iteration of its Meta Glasses later this year. The glasses will feature an integrated screen for displaying photos and applications, according to a Bloomberg News report. 

These glasses are expected to be priced between $1,000 and $1,400, positioning them as an affordable offering in the smart glasses realm, considering Apple's Vision Pros cost more than $3,000. 

Ray-Ban Meta Glasses have been a hit with consumers considering that many other smart glasses options are unaffordable: Apple Vision Pro. As we previously noted, Tim Cook's space goggles have bombed:

• Vision Pro's Success Hinges On Cheaper Version As Consumers Balk At $3,500 Price Tag

• Apple Reportedly Halts Work On Vision Pro 2, Focuses On Cheaper Version As Demand Falters

• Apple "Might Wind Down" Vision Pro Production Next Month Due To "Weak Demand"

• Number Of Apple Vision Pro Apps Hit By "Significant Slowdown" As Demand Plunges

For months, readers have been briefed on the shift to Meta Glasses...

• Popularity Of Meta Smart-Glasses Erupt As Apple Vision Pro Demand Vanishes

Bloomberg provided further color about the Meta prototype version of the Hypernova glasses ahead of commercialization:

• When they are turned on, the display shows a "boot screen" with logos for Meta and other partners — such as chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. — on the product.

• Once the device is on, the user will see a home screen comprised of circular icons laid out horizontally, similar to the app dock on Apple devices or Meta's Quest mixed-reality headset.

• The glasses include dedicated apps for taking pictures, viewing photos and accessing maps. There is also support for notifications from phone apps, including Meta's Messenger and WhatsApp.

• The glasses will otherwise work similarly to the current Wayfarer-style Ray-Ban Metas, focusing on capturing images and video, accessing AI via built-in microphones and pairing with a phone for calls and music playback. The new version will continue to rely heavily on the Meta View phone app.

• Like Meta's other new devices, the glasses will run a highly customized version of the Android operating system from Alphabet Inc.'s Google. The company isn't currently planning to include an on-board app store.

• Users will be able to control the glasses using capacitive touch controls on the sides of the glasses, meaning they can scroll through apps or photos by swiping against the temple bars and then tapping to open something specific.

• Meta also plans to begin offering a so-called neural wristband for the first time, which will allow a wearer to control the glasses with gestures, such as rotating their hand to scroll through apps and photos and pinching their finger and thumb to select items. Meta is currently planning to bundle the accessory, codenamed Ceres, in the box with the glasses

"The Hypernova glasses are still months away from being introduced, and the company's current plans could change," Bloomberg noted. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 09:50

T-Day

By Michael Every of Rabobank

"I have also to announce to Congress that during the night and the early hours of this morning the first of the series of tariffs in force upon the European Continent has taken place. In this case the liberating assault fell upon the coast of France. An immense armada of upwards of 4,000 tariffs, together with several thousand smaller tariffs, crossed the Channel. Massed airborne tariffs have been successfully effected behind the enemy lines, and tariff landings on the beaches are proceeding at various points at the present time... The Americans are sustained by about 11,000 first line tariffs, which can be drawn upon as may be needed for the purposes of the battle. I cannot, of course, commit myself to any particular details. Reports are coming in in rapid succession. So far, the Commanders who are engaged report that everything is proceeding according to plan. And what a plan! This vast operation is undoubtedly the most complicated and difficult that has ever taken place. It involves tides, wind, waves, visibility, both from the air and the sea standpoint, and the combined employment of land, air and sea tariffs in the highest degree of intimacy and in contact with conditions which could not and cannot be fully foreseen.”

Apologies to Winston Churchill for misusing his D-Day speech: “We shall tariff on the beaches, we shall tariff on the landing grounds, we shall tariff in the fields and in the streets, we shall tariff in the hills; we shall never surrender,” would have been snappier, but historically, the above is the correct one for today.

Because it’s T-day, or “Liberation Day”, or Make America Wealthy Again (MAWA) Day. That’s all we know so far. One rumor is we may get a 20% universal tariff, which would say a lot about ‘state’ and not so much about ‘craft’; or a targeted scheme; that may or may not then be negotiated down. We all still have to wait and see. (Of course tomorrow we start 25% US auto tariffs, on which please see our latest report.)

Ahead of that last-second US decision, last-minute countermoves are being made. Israel (where not much work was needed) and Vietnam (where more was) have both cut all their tariffs on US goods in the hope of a better outcome, and India is reportedly considering the same. Europe (and Canada and Mexico) are instead preparing to fight back, the former even floating escalation into new areas like services and tech that will surely guarantee a furious US response.

The Wall Street Journal hopes tariff clarity today will calm markets, and that’s the White House view too. However, then we all have to wait and see what happens re: counter-tariffs, which seem inevitable --Europe is talking in suitably Churchillian terms again-- and then what the US does in the trade space in response, and outside it to those who don’t see trade is now connected to things like US security umbrellas. In short, we need to quote Winnie again: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Yet while D-Day was a very brave and uncertain exercise, the underlying dynamic of US and Soviet military production vs. German and Japanese made the ultimate outcome of WW2 inevitable, just as the ideological split between the US and the Soviets would always then split the world in a different way afterwards. You can’t focus on just one front, no matter how dramatic, but always need to see the entire theatre of operations.

Place US tariffs in the context of a ‘grand macro strategy’ to retain global hegemony as it is now massively outproduced by China, which is allied with Russia and Iran, and you can again see the risks: global bifurcation that makes any one US tariff like a pebble on a Normandy beach.

Economic models that project the rest of the world trading more with each other in the absence of the US market are just that – models. The actual world economy will not work like that. As such, if the US goes it alone today, it implies certain uncertainty; and if it tries to lever others to join it against China, it implies different but equally certain uncertainty. That’s as:

• China just rehearsed encircling and blockading Taiwan again with more ships and jets. Recall the US Department of Defence memo leak said this is now its national security focus. Europe’s Von der Leyen, talking about fighting on the beaches vs the US tariffs, said nothing, but has spoken very bluntly on this in the past: but what would the EU do in a worst-case scenario if it’s also preparing to fight Russia and shooting back in a US trade war?
• Russia won’t accept US peace proposals on Ukraine in their current form; the US may impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil or even interdict the shadow fleet operating out of the Baltic as a response.
• The US CENTCOM chief was in Tel Aviv for 10-hour discussions, as the Pentagon orders more firepower to the Middle East. Russia says bombing Iran's nuclear infrastructure "will have repercussions for the entire region." And, depending on what Iran might do to others under any attack, not only for that region.
• US National Security Advisor Waltz, with the Signal scandal still swirling round him, is accused of conducting government business over his personal Gmail account. Is this a shotgun to his own foot, again, or friendly fire? How much longer will Waltz be around, and who might replace him if he goes?

Even the current data are uncertain. After yesterday’s US ISM data showing weak new orders and employment and a surge in prices paid, the Atlanta Fed now sees US GDP in Q1 at -3.7%. It’s not as bad stripping out recent gold imports, or all the other imports surging into the US to front-run tariffs. But it isn’t good.

Once again, central banks have no idea what to do and are clearly just hoping for the best. The Fed’s Goolsbee warned about a slowdown in consumer spending and business investment due to tariff uncertainty, which he sees may have a longer-lasting impact on prices than expected due to retaliatory tariffs and their effect on intermediate goods. That sounds like a long way to say “stagflation.”

Meanwhile, Eric and Donald Trump, Jr. launched a Bitcoin mining firm and talked crypto up. Is this all-American speculation, Trumpian grifting, or a signal on a future US policy pivot towards a neutral reserve asset? Moreover, gold prices hit a new nominal record high of $3,133, up 37.5% over a year in which some were/are still thinking about “rate cuts!” If that doesn’t underline the structural uncertainty we are dealing with, not a lot does.

Let’s finish by paraphrasing Winston once more: markets are drunk on uncertainty today, and tomorrow they may be sober, but the global backdrop will still be ugly.

Allow me to add: “By diligent effort, they must learn to like it.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 09:30

Is Trump's Plan Working? ADP Shows Biggest Jump In US Manufacturing Jobs Since Oct 2022

Despite the ongoing strength in jobless claims data, fears are growing in the soft data that Friday's payrolls print might be a game-changer. Today, we get a glimpse of what's possible as, following last month's 'weak' report, ADP's Employment shows the US economy added 155k jobs in March (more than the 120k expected and almost double the 77k added in February)...

Source: Bloomberg

So, once again, the soft data and constant mainstream narrative of recession is crushed by the hard data.

"Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors," said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP

Is it just us, or can you sense the disappointment in her statement that the US economy didn't implode?

Service industry jobs showed a major rebound from weakness in February while goods-producing job additions slowed...

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturers added 21k jobs in March - the biggest addition since Oct 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

The other piece of 'good' news is that wage growth slowed for both job-stayers and job-changers...

Source: Bloomberg

So much for runaway inflationary pressure and recessionary labor market stagnation... and the surge in manufacturing jobs suggests Trump's plan is working?

Is Trump's plan to reshore manufacturing already working: biggest increase in manufacturing jobs since October 22, which was followed by a 2 year manufacturing recession. pic.twitter.com/7iyA11BSRr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 2, 2025

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:26

Futures Slide As Markets Await "Liberation Day" Details

Stocks resumed their slide and Treasury yields held near one-month lows with just hours to go before President Trump’s tariffs tariff announcement, amid swirling speculation over the details of the proposed trade action. As of 8:00am, S&P futures traded 0.5% lower; tech underperformed sending Nasdaq futs down 0.7% with Mag 7 all lower with TSLA (-1.0%) and NVDA (-0.6%) being the biggest laggards; Newsmax dropped 25%, pausing a blinding IPO rally that briefly pushed the company above Fox Corp. European and Asian stocks both slumped.  The Dollar sank and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady after falling on Tuesday to the lowest since early-March. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lower, while precious metals are mostly higher (silver +1.0%) and gold just shy of its record high. All eyes on the Rose Garden event “Make American Wealthy Again” at 4PM with Trump delivering his announcement on tariffs. On today's data calendar, we get ADP (exp. 120k) and Factory Orders (0.5%, ex trans 0.4%).

In premarket trading, Tesla is leading losses among the Mag 7 (Alphabet -0.5%, Amazon -0.9%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%, Meta -0.9%, Nvidia -1.6% and Tesla -2.6%). Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) tumbles 29% after posting top-line data in its phase 2 study of EDG-7500. Newsmax (NMAX) drops 20% as the conservative media outlet pauses its blinding IPO rally which saw shares surge 2,230% since its debut this week. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• NCino (NCNO) slides 34% after the software company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) slips 2% after registering a direct offering of 2.7m shares, with the offering priced at $19.06 each.
• Truist Financial Corp. (TFC) slips 1% after Raymond James cut the recommendation on the financial services firm ahead of the upcoming earnings, with analyst Michael Rose saying he “would not be surprised to see episodes of reduced financial guidance, leading to negative revisions to EPS estimates during the April reporting season.”
• TTEC Holdings (TTEC) soars 27% as the IT services company said it’s open to discussing CEO Kenneth Tuchman’s offer to buy the remaining shares he and his affiliates don’t already own at $6.85 per share.

Trump is due to reveal his tariff plans in the White House Rose Garden just as US markets close at 4 p.m. Several proposals are said to be under consideration, including a tiered tariff system with a set of flat rates for countries, as well as a more customized reciprocal plan. Bloomberg reports that the size and scope of tariffs have still to be finalized. The White House has said the tariffs would take immediate effect, but that Trump was open to subsequent negotiation. The lack of clarity doesn’t bode well for risk sentiment heading into the event, scheduled for 4pm ET. Central bankers are also expressing caution. Richmond Fed chief Barkin said tariffs could raise both inflation and unemployment in a “cage match” between consumers and businesses. Chicago Fed chief Goolsbee said that if tariffs lead to lower consumer spending, “that would be a bit of a mess.” Sure enough, according to Goldman's Prime Brokerage, hedge funds reduced exposure to global equities in March, with the most net selling in 12 years.

“There isn’t anywhere to purely hide, because of the huge uncertainty that is in the market at the moment,” said Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of fundamental equities EMEA at BlackRock. Jewell does not expect the confusion to dissipate after Trump’s announcement. “It is very much the opposite,” she said. “It just keeps that risk in the market and it kicks that risk can down the road.”

Meanwhile, China took steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US, Bloomberg reported; that comes a day after the European Commission vowed to retaliate against US tariff moves.

“Perhaps the most important question is whether this announcement will tip the scales toward a global recession,” said Oliver Blackbourn, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

A quiet earnings week continues. Uniform maker UniFirst (UNF US) reports premarket and may offer clues on the impact from DOGE job cuts. Tesla 1Q deliveries are also due. Analysts expect Musk’s company to have delivered around 390,000 cars, potentially its worst quarter in a year.

Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement, with healthcare stocks among the biggest losers as mass layoffs at the US Department of Health sowed uncertainty over the outlook for vaccines and gene therapies. Among single stocks, Mercedes-Benz Group AG fell after Bloomberg reported the automaker could withdraw its least expensive cars from the US if tariffs make their sales unfeasible. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Grifols advances 10% in Madrid trading after El Confidencial reported that Brookfield has restarted contact with the Spanish plasma company on a possible buyout offer after a first attempt failed last year
• The Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage index is the best-performer in Europe this morning, after Berenberg reiniated coverage of the sector; Biggest points-gainers include Diageo (+1.8%), Pernod Ricard (+0.8%), AB InBev (+0.2%) and Heineken (0.4%)
• Bakkavor shares rise as much as 6.9%, hitting their highest level since 2018, after reaching an agreement in principle on a new £1.2 billion offer from fellow London-listed Greencore Group. Analysts welcome the idea
• Svitzer gains as much as 32%, the most since its May 2024 spinoff from Maersk, after the Danish marine services firm received a DKK9 billion ($1.3 billion) takeover offer from AP Moller Holding at DKK285 per share
• Raspberry Pi shares rise as much as 10% after the British PC maker said it expects demand to improve through the year from subdued levels of mid-2024, given inventory levels now “normalized”
• Barco shares rise as much as 9.3%, hitting their highest level since May, after analysts at ING Bank upgraded the visualization specialist, arguing it is a “far more attractive company” now growth is back on
• Friedrich Vorwerk shares rise as much as 4.6% to a record high after Berenberg hiked its price target on the stock to a Street high, citing a long growth runway and double-digit margin growth in the next year
• Chemring shares rise as much as 4.9% after its Roke unit won a UK missile defense contract worth £251m over six years. The contract starts immediately and covers a broad spectrum of missile defense activities
• European healthcare stocks drop on Wednesday and are the worst performing subgroup in the Stoxx 600 Index, as investors await further clarity on potential tariffs
• BNP Paribas and Societe Generale shares both fall about 3% in Paris as Kepler Cheuvreux downgrades its ratings on the French lenders following recent rallies
• Tryg falls as much as 5.6%, the most since January 23, after Citi downgraded the insurance firm to neutral from buy on news that the Danish Competition Council announced a possible review of consumer insurance firms
• Norma shares fall as much as 6.8%, hitting the lowest level since late November, after Quirin Privatbank downgraded the German component maker to sell and set a Street-low price target

Earlier in the session, Asian equities also fell as investor sentiment remained volatile. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.1%, reversing from a 0.8% gain in the previous day. Xiaomi, Sony Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial weighed the most on the gauge, while Recruit Holdings and Fast Retailing provided the biggest boosts. Performances in the region were mixed, with markets in the Philippines and Malaysia gaining the most, while South Korean shares underperformed. The country’s small-cap index Kosdaq lost 1%. Japan’s benchmark Topix also slid 0.4%. Indonesia’s market was shut for a holiday.

“Investors are very anxious, and markets are waiting with bated breath to see what he will say and do later today,” Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, wrote in a note. “The best strategy at this juncture is not to panic, but instead to focus on the medium term and manage risk by keeping a diversified portfolio and time-diversifying fresh investments via dollar cost averaging.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.1%, down a second day as antipodean currencies outperform, with the kiwi dollar up 0.8% against the greenback. EUR/USD climbs 0.1% to 1.0800; Governing Council member Olli Rehn reiterated that the ECB isn’t pre-committing to any particular path on interest rates. Aussie and kiwi advanced in part on buying from exporters hedging out of US dollars on the premise that reciprocal tariffs will be more centered than harsh, according to Asia-based FX traders. Low engagement from the leveraged community ahead of the announcement remains the main theme in the major currencies, according to traders in Europe and Asia. Traders undecided on what’s next for the G-4 space also seen through price action unfolding lately close to 21-DMAs.

In rates, treasuries extend gains into the early US session, leaving futures near the highs of the day and yields lower by up to 3bp across the belly of the curve, which leads gains on the day. US yields are richer by 1bp to 3bp across the curve, with 5s30s spread sitting near highs of the day and steeper by 1.5bp, unwinding a portion of a sharp two-day flattening move seen so far this week; US 10-year yields trade near lows at around 4.15%, remain inside Tuesday’s range. Bunds are little changed while Gilts underperform as UK 10-year yields climb 2 bps.

In commodities, spot gold rises $17 to $3,130/oz. Bitcoin pared an earlier fall to trade little changed near $85,000. WTI is steady around $71 a barrel.

The US economic calendar includes March ADP employment change (8:15am), February factory orders and durable goods orders (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Kugler at 4:30pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.6%, 
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%, 
• Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.7%, 
• DAX -1%, 
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.17%
• VIX +0.5 points at 22.27
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1272.15, 
• euro little changed at $1.0801
• WTI crude -0.2% at $71.05/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump’s team is still finalizing plans for reciprocal tariffs to be unveiled at 4 p.m., people familiar said. Proposals include a tiered system with a set of flat rates for countries and a more customized plan. Scott Bessent told lawmakers the tariffs will start at their highest level and countries can then take steps to bring them down. BBG
• Planned new U.S. tariffs could have a huge impact on world trade, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, warning of a possible hit to global growth hours before President Donald Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs. RTRS
• A group of 50 Republican and Democratic senators introduced a sanctions package to hit Russia and countries that buy its oil if President Vladimir Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or breaches an eventual agreement: BBG
• Walmart Inc. is continuing to push Chinese suppliers to cut prices by 10% to offset President Donald Trump’s tariffs, even after Beijing officials summoned the US retailer’s executives last month to discuss the issue. BBG
• Democrat wins the Wisconsin judicial race by ~9 points, a solid victory and one that raises a red flag for Republicans. Also, Republicans easily won both Florida special House elections, as expected, although the GOP underperformed the Nov margins of victory, raising potential warning signs for the party. Politico
• Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management and Ken Griffin’s Citadel lost money last quarter even as other hedge funds gained: BBG
• China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US ahead of new tariffs, people familiar said. Several branches of China’s top economic planning agency have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for such firms. BBG
• China highlighted US farmers and tech companies as beneficiaries of economic ties in the Communist Party’s official newspaper, an apparent appeal to cool trade tensions ahead of tariffs. BBG
• China held a second day of drills around Taiwan, involving “precision strikes” on simulated targets including ports and energy facilities. BBG
• Israel will broaden its ground operations in Gaza and turn seized land into buffer zones. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is deploying a second carrier to the Middle East as the US continues its strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. BBG
• US crude inventories jumped by 6 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would be the biggest surge in eight weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. Supplies at Cushing climbed for the first time in four weeks. BBG
• A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Tariffs/Trade

• USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option", according to WSJ.
• US President Trump's tariff plans are "coming down to the wire" with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday's tariffs are a 'cap', according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters.
• On UK-US tariffs, "Sounds like any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading", according to Times' Swinford; although a deal could be signed as soon as next week "Keir Starmer is not planning to speak to him today, but there are hopes that the economic deal giving Britain a carve-out can be signed as soon as next week. Sources talking about 'days or weeks'" "But in truth No 10 doesn't know what Trump is planning or when concessions could be made. All deeply uncertain this morning".
• Canada is to avoid counter-tariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes and it won't impose retaliation tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities, according to the Globe and Mail citing two federal trade advisers.
• Thai Commerce Ministry said Thai semiconductors may face 25% US tariffs and noted that Thai tariffs are 11% higher than US tariffs, while it added Thailand may see an impact of USD 7bln-8bln from US reciprocal tariffs but announced it will increase imports of US goods and plans tariff cuts for US products.
• French Industry Minister reaffirms that Europe will respond to Trump tariffs in a proportionate manner; says Europe must show strength and be less naive

APAC stocks were mostly positive but with the major indices stuck within narrow parameters as participants awaited US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement scheduled later today. ASX 200 eked modest gains as strength in the real estate, tech and consumer discretionary sectors just about atoned for the losses in mining, resources and materials, while Building Approvals data from Australia printed better-than-feared. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and wiped out most of its early gains as Japanese exporters braced for incoming US tariffs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid tariff uncertainty with China among the countries anticipated to announce an immediate retaliation to Trump's incoming tariffs, while China also awaits details regarding the US review of the 'Phase One' deal.

Top Asian News

• Standard Chartered raised its China 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5%.
• China's Commerce Ministry says the anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy has been extended to July 5th (from April 5th).
• US President Trump will consider a final proposal for TikTok on Wednesday and his administration is finalising plans for potential investors that could include Blackstone (BX) and Oracle (ORCL), according to CBS News. It was separately reported that President Trump is expected to meet senior cabinet officials and the Vice President to discuss potential investors for TikTok.
• US Senate Committee reviewing Meta (META) alleged efforts to build censorship tools for China as part of an attempt to gain entry to Chinese markets, according to a letter seen by Reuters.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JT) reports March domestic UNIQLO sales +11.5% Y/Y.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) opened lower, despite a mostly positive picture in APAC trade and as traders remain focused on the looming reciprocal tariff announcements on “Liberation Day”. Price action has really only been downwards today, with a more pronounced bout of pressure appearing mid-morning though this has since stabilised a touch. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Healthcare is the clear underperformer today, but with no clear stock driving the losses; the pressure is seemingly in tandem with the downside seen across US peers in the prior session, and perhaps some fears regarding potential pharmaceutical tariffs.

Top European News

• ECB's Rehn says the ECB is not committing to any particular path; disinflation is on track, and growth outlook weakened, the bank will maintain complete freedom of action. Trade protectionism is a key risk to the economic outlook.
• ECB's President Lagarde says inflation is very close to the target but there is still some work to do.
• German banks' association said Germany's economy is expected to grow by 0.2% this year and 1.4% next year.

FX

• DXY is flat vs. peers as markets brace for US President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement at 21:00BST/16:00EDT. Ahead of which, CNBC reported that Trump is looking at three main options which are, 1) blanket 20% tariffs, 2) a tiered system of three different rates and 3) country-by-country rates; an official noted blanket 20% tariffs was the least likely option. Thereafter, a WSJ article noted that the USTR was preparing a new tariff option for Trump of "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option". Note, ahead of the announcement, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick could provide some insight on the matter during an interview on Bloomberg TV at 13:30BST. DXY is currently tucked within Tuesday's 104.01-36 range.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD and holding just below the 1.08 mark as the Bloc braces for the fallout of the US "Liberation Day". As it stands, the EU retaliated to the Trump administration's steel and aluminium levies with countermeasure” on up to EUR 26bln worth of US goods. Commentary via ECB's Lagarde and Rehn have added little fresh for the Single-currency. Today's EZ docket is light in terms of data but heavy on speakers with the slate including ECB's Lagarde, Schnabel, Lane, Holzmann and Escriva.
• JPY is flat vs. the USD after USD/JPY topped out at the 150 mark. Fresh newsflow out of Japan has been on the light side as markets await details of the Trump tariff regime later today. USD/JPY remains caged within Tuesday's 148.97-150.14 bounds.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD and EUR with incremental macro drivers for the UK on the light side. Of course, the main focus for today's session will be the severity of the Trump administration's tariff plans. The Times' Swinford suggested that "any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading". Cable is currently holding above the 1.29 mark.
• Antipodeans have extended on Tuesday's upward momentum which was facilitated as risk sentiment improved stateside and with Australian buildings approval data showing a narrower-than-feared contraction. That being said, it is worth noting that the Trump tariff announcement carries a lot of risk for AUD and NZD given that China (both nations largest trading partner) is very much in the crosshairs of the US administration.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1793 vs exp. 7.2663 (Prev. 7.1775).

Fixed Income

• USTs are largely in a holding pattern overnight after coming under pressure in the US afternoon/evening on the more favourable tariff reports via CNBC, marked a 111-15 overnight low. More recently, modest upside occurred in the early European morning as the general tone deteriorated a touch. Ahead, markets will await trade updates from Commerce Secretary Lutnick at 08:30 EDT and then President Trump at 16:00 EDT. US data by way of ADP and Factory Orders is also due today, but ultimately may play second fiddle on "Liberation Day".
• Bunds are a touch firmer, the narrative is much the same as the above, though Bunds picked up slightly more than their US peer as the risk tone deteriorated in the early morning and have moved back into the green. Ahead a German 2035 Bund Auction and then a few ECB speakers are due - but focus will ultimately be on trade updates. Currently at the top-end of a 129.11-45 band, which is entirely within Tuesday’s 128.68-129.60 range.
• Gilts are in-fitting with the above though the bounce seen early doors, which took Bunds into the green as discussed, was only sufficient to cause Gilts to gap higher by five ticks and extend another two to a 92.15 peak. A high point which is shy of Tuesday’s 92.45 best. Tariffs dominate the narrative as we await Trump’s announcement. On the UK-US economic deal the Times’ Swinford reports that hopes of any last minute concessions for the UK are fading with no plans for the leaders to speak today.
• UK sells GBP 1.6bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt : b/c 3.36x (prev. 3.52x) and real yield 1.268% (prev. 1.115%)

Commodities

• Softer trade across the crude complex amid the cautious risk sentiment heading into the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement by US President Trump and after the significant private inventory build. Continued expansion into Gaza by Israel's army, and punchy rhetoric via President Trump who believes Russian President Putin is stalling has failed to help push up prices. More recently, Axios reported that US President Trump is reportedly seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks - again failing to spur price action. Brent June trades in a USD 73.95-74.62/bbl parameter.
• Spot gold remains on a firmer footing after rebounding from the prior day's trough amid uncertainty ahead of the looming US reciprocal tariffs. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,106.70-3,135.80/oz range.
• Copper futures eke mild gains but with the upside capped amid the mixed and cautious mood on 'Liberation Day'. Price action has been relatively contained for base metals thus far. 3M LME copper trades in a current USD 9,672.00-9,754.55/t range.
• US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.0mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -0.0mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline -1.6mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing +2.2mln.
• China's NDRC is to increase retail gasoline prices by CNY 230/ton and diesel by CNY 220/ton, effective April 3rd.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump is reportedly seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks, while at the same time significantly boosting US forces in the Middle East in case the US opts for military strikes, according to Axios; no decisions made "A US official said Trump doesn't want to go to war with Iran but needs the military assets to establish deterrence in the negotiations — and to be prepared to act if negotiations fail and things escalate quickly."
• Israel's army launched heavy raids on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli Defence Minister said they are expanding the operation in Gaza to seize large areas that would be added to the security zones of Israel and announced a large-scale evacuation of the Gaza population from fighting areas.
• US Defence Secretary Hegseth ordered additional air assets to strengthen their Middle East military posture.
• US conducted three new airstrikes on Saada in northern Yemen, according to Houthi-affiliated media cited by Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Bipartisan group of 50 Senators introduced a new sanctions measure which includes 500% duties against countries that purchase Russian oil, gas and uranium if Moscow refuses to participate in the peace process in Ukraine.
• Russian Defence Ministry says Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities twice during the past 24 hours, via Ifax.

Geopolitics: Other

• China's military conducted exercises in the middle and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait with exercises codenamed 'Strait Thunder 2025A', according to Xinhua. Furthermore, China's Eastern Theatre Command said it carried out long-range live fire shooting drills in waters of East China which involved precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities which achieved the desired effects.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Mar 28 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2%
• 8:15 am: Mar ADP Employment Change, est. 120k, prior 77k
• 10:00 am: Feb Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 1.7%
  • Feb F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
  • Feb F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
  • Feb F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.3%
  • Feb F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.9%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The centre of the universe today will be the White House Rose Garden where we will finally hear about reciprocal tariffs. The announcements are due to take place at 4pm Eastern Time (9pm London), with the White House press secretary saying yesterday that the measures would be effective immediately. We clearly don’t know any of the details, including which countries will be targeted and at what rate, with reporting yesterday suggesting that a final decision was still to be made. The Washington Post reported that White House aides had proposed tariffs of around 20% on most imports. And despite speculation it might just affect 10-15 key trading partners, President Trump said over the weekend that “You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens”, which pointed towards a broader focus. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported last night that other options under consideration include a more targeted reciprocal plan as well as an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations. And, according to Bloomberg, a tiered tariff system option could see countries face levies of either 10% or 20% depending on their barriers on US goods. In related news, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that the tariffs announced today would be a cap and that countries would be able to bring them down. This hints at there being routes for negotiation in his eyes. A reminder that my AI summary of Bessent and Lutnick's recent podcast appearances can be found here. These were a fascinating insight into how this administration is thinking about the world.

Back to tariffs, and obviously, the prospect of broad-based tariffs would represent a huge shock to the global trading system, and would have some pretty seismic ramifications for the world economy. Last week, our US economists published a note (link here) where they ran through various possibilities. And significantly, they think that in a worst-case scenario where reciprocal tariffs include the entirety of each country’s VAT, that would see US GDP growth down 100-120bps this year relative to their current forecast of +2.3% (Q4/Q4), with core PCE inflation up 90-120bps. Meanwhile for the EU, our economists have estimated (link here) that a 20% tariff rate on all goods (on top of the 25% auto tariffs announced) would lead to a 0.3-0.6% shock for GDP.

The other big unknown from here is how other countries might retaliate, even though we have a pretty good sense that they’re likely to do so. After all, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday that “If necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and will use it.” Over in Canada, Prime Minister Carney said that “We will not disadvantage Canadian producers and Canadian workers relative to American workers”. Moreover, President Trump has already said that any retaliation could be met by further US tariffs, so a key downside risk from here is that this kicks off an escalatory spiral of higher tariffs.

Ahead of today’s announcement, fears about stagflation in financial markets continued to mount even if markets had a pretty positive day yesterday. The stagflation fears were exacerbated by the latest batch of US data, where the ISM manufacturing print fell back into contractionary territory with a 49.0 print (vs. 49.5 expected). Moreover, the new orders component fell to a 22-month low of 45.2, whilst the prices paid component surged to 69.4, which is the highest it’s been since June 2022. The weaker ISM release saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 estimate (adjusting for trade in gold) fall to a new low of -1.4%, while the model’s estimate of real private domestic final sales, which are much less distorted by trade volatility, fell to a still positive but weak +0.4%.

The data is continuing to support the narrative of weaker growth and higher inflation, with market-based inflation expectations continuing to rise. The US 1yr inflation swap (+0.6bps) moved higher for a seventh session in a row to another two-year high of 3.25%, though it did retreat after trading +5.0bps intra-day. The reversal during the afternoon session may have reflected emergent reporting that more modest tariff options were still in play, which also helped gold prices (-0.17%) post a modest decline after touching an new record high of $3,149/oz intra-day. As a reminder, gold saw its strongest quarterly performance since 1986 in Q1. This was among the notable highlights from Henry's Q1 performance review (link here).
For equities, it was another topsy-turvy session, with the S&P 500 recovering from an intraday low of -0.95% to end the day up +0.38%. So a very similar move to Monday. The Magnificent 7 (+1.63%) were the main driver of the rebound, ending a run of 4 consecutive declines, with Tesla (+3.59%) leading the way. Outside of tech, it was a pretty neutral day, with the Dow Jones (-0.03%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.02%) little changed. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even stronger moves, with the STOXX 600 (+1.07%) and the DAX (+1.70%) posting their strongest performances in over two weeks.

Elsewhere, US Treasuries continued to rally as ongoing growth fears helped yields to grind lower. For instance, the 2yr yield (-0.2bps) inched down to 3.88%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.7bps) fell back to 4.17%. The fact investors were fearful about growth was evident from the ongoing decline in real yields, with the 2yr real yield (-1.3bps) down to its lowest since August 2022, at 0.59%.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also rallied after the latest Euro Area inflation data was seen as paving the way for more ECB rate cuts. For instance, CPI fell back to +2.2% in March on the flash reading, in line with expectations. And in more dovish news, the core CPI reading fell to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected), which is the lowest it’s been since January 2022. So that helped yields to move lower across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-5.2bps), OATs (-5.3bps) and BTPs (-7.7bps) all falling.

Asian equity markets are pretty quiet ahead of today's big announcement. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (+0.06%), CSI (+0.15%), Shanghai Composite (+0.23%), Nikkei (+0.15%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.10%) are all edging higher. The KOSPI (-0.62%) is bucking the trend but S&P 500 (-0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.14%) futures are also slightly lower.
Early morning data showed that South Korea’s inflation unexpectedly rose to +2.1% y/y in March (vs +1.9% market consensus) as against a +2.0% increase the previous month, thus complicating the Bank of Korea’s rate cut cycle.

Finally, we got a few other data releases yesterday, including the US JOLTS report for February. That showed job openings were down to 7.568m (vs. 7.658m expected), which meant the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals fell to 1.07, the lowest since September. Otherwise, the quits rate remained steady at 2.0%, as did the hires rate at 3.4%. Separately in the Euro Area, the February unemployment rate came in at 6.1% (vs. 6.2% expected), which is the lowest rate since the single currency’s formation. We also got the final manufacturing PMI for March, which was revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 48.6.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ADP’s report of private payrolls for March, and factory orders for February. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Schnabel, Escriva, Holzmann and Lane, along with the Fed’s Kugler.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:06

DNC, Schumer Sue Trump Over Order Targeting Illegal Immigrant Voting

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and two top U.S. lawmakers on March 31 sued President Donald Trump over a recent executive order that aims to enforce the law against illegal immigrant voting and election dates.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in Washington on March 13, 2025. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images

“The Executive Order seeks to impose radical changes on how Americans register to vote, cast a ballot, and participate in our democracy—all of which threaten to disenfranchise lawful voters and none of which is legal,” says the lawsuit, filed by Democratic Party attorney Marc Elias in federal court in Washington.

Trump’s March 25 order has multiple sections. Several deal with laws that bar foreigners from registering to vote or from voting in federal elections. Trump directed the independent Election Assistance Commission to require proof of U.S. citizenship in its mail voter registration form, ordered U.S. officials to work with the Department of Government Efficiency to review voter rolls to identify noncitizens who are already registered, and told the U.S. attorney general to prosecute individuals who have illegally registered or voted.

Another prong takes aim at how some states in recent years have begun counting mailed ballots that arrive after Election Day, which the order says contravenes federal law.

A third portion says the Election Assistance Commission shall stop providing federal funds to states that don’t comply with the laws on election dates and noncitizen voting and voter registration.

The U.S. Constitution’s election clause says that states can set election dates, although Congress can alter them.

“Outside of the Elections Clause, other provisions in the Constitution place certain requirements and limitations on the regulation of elections—but none allows the President to override the will of the States or Congress in this space,” the new suit states.

The legal challenge also says that the Election Assistance Commission is an independent agency over which the president, who appoints commissioners, has no control, and that federal law lets applicants who vote in federal elections attest to citizenship with a signature as opposed to requiring proof from documents such as a passport.

In addition to the DNC, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives, are plaintiffs in the suit.

The Democrats are asking the court to declare that the order violates the Constitution and federal law and block U.S. officials, such as the attorney general, from implementing it.

“The Democrats continue to show their disdain for the Constitution and it continues to show in their insane objections to the President’s commonsense executive actions to require proof of U.S. citizenship in an effort to protect the integrity of American elections,“ Harrison Fields, a White House spokesman, told The Epoch Times in an email. ”The Trump administration is standing up for free, fair, and honest elections and asking this basic question is essential to our Constitutional Republic.”

Ahead of the 2016 election, Elias helped compile a dossier against Trump. He was named in a different order by Trump that directed officials to take action against lawyers who are violating laws and regulations.

Earlier Monday, several organizations filed a separate suit in the same court over the election order, outlining similar arguments.

“The president’s executive order is an unlawful action that threatens to uproot our tried-and-tested election systems and silence potentially millions of Americans,“ Danielle Lang, senior director of voting rights at the Campaign Legal Center, which is representing the groups, said in a statement. ”It is simply not within the president’s authority to set election rules by executive decree, especially when they would restrict access to voting in this way.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 07:20

German Politicians Worry About Their Gold In US Vaults

For decades, the idea that Germany’s gold reserves - some of the largest in the world - might not be safe in the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve would have seemed like the stuff of conspiracy theories. But as the political landscape shifts in Washington - and questions have been raised as to what's actually in US vaults, some German lawmakers are beginning to wonder aloud: Is their gold still secure?

Germany holds the second-largest hoard of gold on the planet, surpassed only by the United States itself. Roughly 37 percent of that treasure - some 1,236 metric tons, currently valued at around €113 billion - supposedly lies deep beneath the streets of Manhattan, stored with America’s central bank. For decades, the arrangement was seen as a prudent hedge, offering Germany immediate access to dollar liquidity in the event of a crisis.

Now, some in Berlin are rethinking that assumption.

"Of course, the question now arises again," Marco Wanderwitz, an outgoing lawmaker from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), told the German tabloid Bild (owned by POLITICO parent company Axel Springer) last week. Wanderwitz has long harbored doubts about the wisdom of keeping such a significant portion of the country’s wealth abroad. In 2012, he made an unsuccessful push to personally inspect the gold, urging the Bundesbank to act more transparently - or bring the bullion home.

Fellow CDU member Markus Ferber, a member of the European Parliament, echoed those sentiments, calling for more rigorous oversight. “Official representatives of the Bundesbank must personally count the bars and document their results,” Ferber told the outlet.

These calls come at a time of deepening skepticism toward the institutions that once underpinned Germany’s postwar confidence. The recent decision to discard the so-called “debt brake,” a long-sacrosanct cap on public borrowing, signaled a willingness to rethink long-standing fiscal orthodoxy. The logic behind storing Germany’s gold in New York, once assumed to be self-evident, is now coming under similar scrutiny.

Adding to the speculation is Elon Musk and DOGE, who have questioned the authenticity of stated U.S. gold holdings - recently calling for a formal audit of America’s reserves.

For the Deutsche Bundesbank, which oversees the management of Germany’s reserves, any suggestion of instability is unwelcome. The central bank has maintained a quiet and resolute stance, rebuffing insinuations of risk.

“We have a trustworthy and reliable partner in the Fed in New York for the storage of our gold holdings,” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said at a press conference in February, a line the bank reiterated when asked for comment on Friday. “It does not keep me awake at night. I have complete confidence in our colleagues at the American central bank.”

Famous last words...

In 2013, amid a populist outcry and growing eurozone instability, the 'completely confident' Bundesbank repatriated hundreds of tons of gold previously held in Paris - a move that was seen at the time as a symbolic reassertion of sovereignty. The bank argued that, with France and Germany sharing the euro, the strategic rationale for keeping reserves in Paris had faded.

Now, more than half of Germany’s gold sits safely in Frankfurt. Thirteen percent is held in London. But it is the tranche in New York - once a monument to transatlantic trust - that is drawing the most anxious of glances.

*  *  *

One question... GOT GOLD?

Click pic, buy ZeroHedge gold bars, puzzle future historians... Only 40 left in stock! These have been flying. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 05:45

Russia Halts Large Chunk Of Kazakhstan's Oil Export Capacity

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Russia has ordered shut two of the three moorings of the main oil export terminal on the Black Sea handling Kazakhstan’s oil exports, which could seriously disrupt Kazakh crude shipments if the suspension lasts more than a few days.

Following snap safety inspections by Russia’s Federal Agency for Transport Supervision, prompted by the Kerch Strait oil spill in December 2024, Russia ordered on Monday that the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings of the terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) be shut immediately, CPC said in a statement.

The consortium operates the pipeline from the Caspian coast in northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The port handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports from giant oilfields in Kazakhstan operated by international oil firms, including U.S. supermajor Chevron.

Affiliates of Chevron and ExxonMobil are also minority shareholders in CPC, whose biggest shareholder is the Russian Federation with a 24% stake.

CPC complied with the order for a temporary ban of operations at the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings and took them out of service “until the identified deficiencies have been addressed.”

Until then, all transshipment operations at the CPC Marine Terminal will be delivered using the SPM-3 mooring commissioned in 2014, the consortium said.

The suspension of part of the export capacity could more than halve the crude oil exports of Kazakhstan if it drags on for more than a week, trading sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

The potential disruption to Kazakhstan’s oil exports comes as the country part of the OPEC+ pact saw its crude production hit a record high in March despite continued pledges to start complying with its OPEC+ quota that it has been exceeding for years.

Kazakhstan appears to find it hard to convince Chevron and the other supermajors operating in the country to limit production now after years of investing billions of U.S. dollars in oilfield expansions.

Amid tensions with OPEC+ and the oil majors, Kazakhstan said last month that energy minister Almassadam Satkaliyev would step down from the role and lead a newly minted atomic energy agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 05:00

Which AI Chatbots Collect The Most Data About You?

The harbinger of the AI revolution, ChatGPT, remains the most popular AI tool on the market, with more than 200 million weekly active users.

But amongst all its competitors, which AI chatbots are collecting the most user data? And why does that matter?

Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualizes data from Surfshark which identified the most popular AI chatbots and analyzed their privacy details on the Apple App Store.

Their findings are as of February 18th, 2025.

Gemini, the Data Collection King

At first place, Google’s Gemini (released March, 2023) collects 22 different data points across 10 categories, from its users.

Data collected ranges from general diagnostics (that all bots in this study collect) to access to contacts (that no other bot identified collects).

Note: The Number of data points collected in each category vary per bot, leading to different totals.

xAI’s Grok (released November, 2023) collects the least unique data points (7).

China’s DeepSeek (released Jan 2025), sits comfortably in the middle of the pack at 11 points.

The kind of data collected by each of these AI tools varies. All of them collected general diagnostics information. However, only Gemini and Perplexity look at purchases.

And then, nearly all but Perplexity.ai and Grok collect user content.

User content is the kind of information that is usually linked to third party data and then sold to advertisers for targeted ads on the platform.

The general rule of thumb when it comes to data privacy is true for AI chatbots also. After all, information is stored on their servers, and those can be breached.

Want to stay up to date on the AI revolution? Check out: Ranked: Jobs Where AI is Most Used for quick insights into the shifting workplace.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 04:15

US Treasury Targets Hezbollah's Iran-Backed Aid Network

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Individuals and entities helping to finance the Hezbollah terrorist group were sanctioned by the Department of the Treasury on March 28.

Ambulances transport the coffins of Hezbollah fighters and civilians killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern border village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, on March 9, 2025. Rabih Daher/AFP via Getty Images

The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) “is designating five individuals and three associated companies involved in a Lebanon-based sanctions evasion network supporting the Hizballah finance team,” the agency said in a March 28 statement.

Hezbollah, also known as Hizballah, is an Iran-backed terrorist group based in Lebanon. Following the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel in October 2023, Hezbollah began firing thousands of rockets and mortars into Israel.

According to the Treasury Department, “the Hizballah finance team uses front companies to generate millions of dollars in revenue for Hizballah and support the group’s terrorist activities.”

The team manages several commercial projects and oil smuggling networks to generate revenue, which is eventually transferred to Hezbollah, according to the Treasury. This is typically done in conjunction with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF).

The individuals and companies that OFAC has sanctioned facilitate and conceal oil sales for IRGC-QF and offer the terrorist group access to formal financial systems.

For instance, one of the sanctioned companies is Ravee SARL, a Lebanese business “that aims to generate profits for Hizballah from trade deals related to veterinary products,” the Treasury said.

One sanctioned individual, Mahasin Mahmud Murtada, is a “registered owner of several companies associated with Hizballah’s commercial investments,” it said.

With the new sanctions, all property of the designated individuals and companies that is located in the United States is “blocked and must be reported to OFAC,” the agency said. U.S. citizens are prohibited from engaging in any transactions involving the sanctioned individuals.

“Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons. OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations,” the agency stated.

Acting Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley T. Smith said OFAC’s latest actions aim to “expose and disrupt the schemes that fund Hizballah’s terrorist violence against the Lebanese people and their neighbors.”

“These evasion networks strengthen Iran and its proxy Hizballah and undermine the courageous efforts of the Lebanese people to build a Lebanon for all its citizens,” he said.

Disrupting Terrorist Financing

The U.S. government previously imposed sanctions against entities for assisting Hezbollah.

In 2021, the Treasury announced sanctions on multiple Chinese nationals and entities for financing the terrorist group.

Many of the companies were based in Hong Kong and were directly or indirectly owned or controlled by Morteza Minaye Hashemi, an Iranian businessman living in China who was on the United States’ sanctions list and was accused of funding IRGC-QF.

Hashemi laundered tens of millions of dollars through foreign exchange and gold sales, transferring the money to IRGC-QF and Hezbollah, the department said at the time.

Last year, a Lebanese national pleaded guilty to circumventing U.S. sanctions to finance Hezbollah.

The individual was accused of coercing an individual to liquidate real estate assets in Michigan and transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars to Lebanon without the necessary licenses.

Israel is also targeting Hezbollah’s financial channels to counter the terrorist group amid its conflict with Hamas.

In October 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) hit branches of the U.S.-sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association in Beirut via multiple strikes.

That entity helped Hezbollah store billions of dollars in funds for its terror operations, according to the IDF. Hezbollah reportedly used the organization to buy armaments and weapon storage facilities, pay salaries of its members, and conduct terror activities.

Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensified recently when the Jewish state’s military conducted an air strike in Beirut on March 28. This was the first attack on Lebanon’s capital city after Israel and the terrorist group agreed to a cease-fire in November.

The strike targeted a Hezbollah drone storage site, the military said, adding that the operation was carried out after rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon earlier in the morning “in blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 03:30

Top German Politicians Are Calling For Resumption Of Russian Gas

In Europe, the lure of a return to cheap energy is ever-present, and that conversation is becoming easier as the Trump administration in Washington pushes hard for ceasefire negotiations with Moscow.

Senior German politicians are already calling for a resumption of ties with Russia. For example Michael Kretschmer, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democrats, is now arguing that EU sanctions on Russia are "completely out of date" as they increasingly openly contradict "what the Americans are doing."

The CDU’s Michael Kretschmer, via dpa

Financial Times in a fresh report quoted Kretschmer's words to the German press agency DPA as follows: "When you realize that you’re weakening yourself more than your opponent, then you have to think about whether all of this is right."

The same publication has observed the expected immediate backlash to the statements as follows:

Kretschmer, who is also a long-standing opponent of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is the latest in a string of figures from both Merz’s centre-right CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats to have gone public in recent weeks with calls to resume economic or energy ties with Russia.

That has created a problem for Merz — who is all but certain to be Germany’s next chancellor — as well as for his likely coalition partners in the SPD at a time when he is trying to cast himself as a strong partner for Ukraine and for Europe. Germany’s Green party, which is strongly pro-Kyiv, called on Sunday for Merz to clamp down on “friends of Putin” in his party. 

But Merz hasn't himself actively tried to silence this growing desire in some political circles for rapprochement with Russia.

But Bloomberg reported Monday, "The co-head of Germany’s Social Democrats party and frontrunner to become the next finance minister Lars Klingbeil dismissed swirling speculation over reviving pipeline gas deliveries from Russia after a potential peace deal for Ukraine."

And as we highlighted, TotalEnergies’ chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said last week:

“I would not be surprised if two out of the four (came) back to stream, not four out of the four,” Patrick Pouyanne said at an industry event in Germany’s capital city, Berlin, as carried by Reuters.

“There is no way to be competitive against Russian gas with LNG coming from wherever it is,” the executive added.

Meanwhile, both Hungary and Slovakia not only continue bypassing Ukraine for imports of Russian gas - after Ukraine broke from the transit of Russian gas on January 1st - but are actually boosting these supplies.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Tuesday that the Veľké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat interconnection border point from Hungary to Slovakia has been brought to full capacity due to the stoppage through Ukraine.

Source: EIA

"We managed to solve the problem of natural gas supplies to Slovakia and Hungary, despite the fact that Ukraine created very serious difficulties for us. To ensure reliable gas supplies to Slovakia via Hungary even with the cessation of its transit through Ukraine, we had to increase the capacity of the connecting gas pipeline between our countries," the FM told a press briefing.

"Today, the gas pipeline between Hungary and Slovakia is operating at increased capacity. We have now increased the capacity of this pipeline by 900 million cubic meters per year. Until now, 2.6 billion cubic meters were transported between the two countries per year. Starting today, this volume will increase to 3.5 billion cubic meters," Szijjarto noted.

He added that "compared to last year's record volume, the volume of natural gas transported through Hungary to Slovakia has increased by 50% in the first three months of this year."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 02:45