The post The $40 Trillion Debt and Trump Corruption appeared first on CEPR.

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Why Does Everything Feel Like a Scam?: Hanna Horvath on the corrosive effect of price opacity. When you no longer know what anything is supposed to cost, every transaction starts to feel like a con. (Hanna Horvath)

• The bond market is signaling trouble ahead. This is why you should pay attention: Bond prices are falling these days because investors are mainly concerned about two things. First, that rising inflation is making the bonds they are holding worth less. And second, that the U.S. government, under successive presidents, has had a habit of spending more money than it collects in taxes. Imagine suffering a pay cut without trimming back your expenses. (NPR) see also The Treasury Market’s Coveted Status as a Safe Haven Is Fading: Two new studies find signs investors aren’t as willing to accept low yields because of Treasurys’ safety. Greg Ip on two new studies finding that investors are no longer as willing to accept low yields in exchange for the safety of Treasurys. Treasurys are used to price, hedge, and collateralize countless transactions in unrelated markets — which is why the erosion matters well beyond the bond desk.   (Wall Street Journal)

• The Index Fund Turns 50: How Jack Bogle Changed Investing Forever: Vanguard’s pioneering S&P 500 fund was once mocked as ‘Bogle’s folly.’Allan Roth marks the August 31 anniversary of the first publicly available S&P 500 index mutual fund, launched in 1976 by an upstart named Vanguard. All share classes of that fund now hold $1.67 trillion. (Morningstar)

• Read the Minutes, Fade the Presser: Warsh’s explanation of the July hold was not the Committee’s. Heading into September, the FOMC minutes have the reaction function that matters. Claudia Sahm on the gap between the July FOMC minutes and what was said in the press room three weeks ago. With the statement, the presser, and now the minutes, we have a fairly complete picture of Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Chair — and it is an unusual one. (Claudia Sahm)

• When “Serving the Seller” Means Serving Yourself Twice: Commission capture over seller preference, consumer be damned. Jonathan Miller on Compass’s “Three Phase Marketing Plan” and Robert Reffkin’s August 4 earnings-call remark about agents getting their own buyers. Compass’s own data reportedly shows dual agency happens 72% more often off-market. (Housing Notes)

• Silicon Valley Executives Are Tech Fans. Just Not for Their Own Kids. At home, moderation and restraint are the rule for tech parents. Boredom is exalted. Maybe they’re onto something. David Streitfeld on the blunt verdict from court cases in California, Kentucky, and New Mexico. One of the Valley’s signature products now carries all the allure — and the lawsuits — of cigarettes circa 1990. (New York Times)

• New Drone Unit to Be Phased Out as Hegseth’s Army Pick Makes His Mark: Gen. Christopher LaNeve takes aim at a cutting-edge drone unit, one of several moves he has made since taking over the Army. The Army is dismantling the drone assault battalion it stood up in Europe in January, one of several moves by Gen. Christopher LaNeve since taking over. (Wall Street Journal)

• ‘With All My Heart, Natalie.’ Trump’s Most Devoted Aide Emerges: Maggie Haberman on Natalie Harp, always at the president’s side, and the unanswered question of what exactly she does. (New York Times) see also How Trump’s Ever-Present Executive Assistant Became the Talk of Washington: The 35-year-old aide has become an object of fascination and a target of political debate on both the left and the right. (Wall Street Journal)

• Stolen Masterpieces Worth $10 Million Discovered in a Cardboard Box, Months After Thieves Snuck Into a Museum and Whisked Them Away Into the Night: The artworks by Cézanne, Renoir and Matisse disappeared in a three-minute heist earlier this year. Now, police have arrested five suspects in connection with the burglary in northern Italy  Ellen Wexler on the Cézanne, Renoir, and Matisse that vanished from a northern Italian museum in a three-minute heist earlier this year. Five suspects are now under arrest. (Smithsonian)

• A Monday With Brad Pitt: The dogs are shoving their noses through his knees and clawing at the glass door, and the entryway is all plate glass, so the whole scene is visible from outside. The 62-year-old has lived a singular life. He resides in the top 1 percent of the top 1 percent of all movie stars, not only today but ever, as measured by any metric you like, including intrigue. What does he have to say about all of it? (Esquire)

Video of the day: The Lexus LS 400 Happened When The Government Tried To Protect Detroit

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Alex Morris of TSOH Investment Research. He is the author of “Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meetings.” The book was named one of Amazon’s “Best Books of 2025.” To write it, he reviewed every Berkshire annual meeting from 1994 through 2024 — 100s of hours of video covering more than 1,700 shareholder questions over 31 years — after Berkshire released the meeting archives.

 

Stock-Picking Funds Are Performing as Poorly as Ever

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Ukraine Corruption Scandal Deepens: 'Operation Forrest Gump' Shocks Zelensky Government With More Searches

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,

Ukrainian anti-corruption services launched searches under codename "Operation Forrest Gump," targeting, among others, the deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. The move expands the ongoing anti-corruption investigation which has seen a number of top officials in Zelensky's cabinet flee to Israel shortly before police could raid their homes.

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) announced they were conducting a special operation involving a criminal organization led by a current and former member of parliament, with the participation of high-ranking officials from the Office of the President of Ukraine.

"NABU and SAPO are conducting a special operation aimed at exposing a criminal organization that operated under the leadership of a current and former member of the Ukrainian Parliament, with the participation of high-ranking officials of the Office of the President of Ukraine and other individuals. Details - coming soon," announced the anti-corruption services on Telegram.

The operation is codenamed "Forrest Gump," also referred to as Forest Gump. Ukrayinska Pravda sources and other media reported that NABU and SAPO are conducting searches as part of this special operation at premises belonging to MP Vadym Stolar, who was elected to parliament on behalf of the currently banned Opposition Platform - For Life party.

In addition, Iryna Mudra, deputy head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, is also targeted in the raids.

Stolar has confirmed the investigative actions at his home and stated he is fully cooperating without obstruction.

Additional figures linked by media and law-enforcement sources include former MP Maksym Mykytas, officials from the Ministry of Justice, and senior management of the state-owned Sense Bank including the chair of the board and supervisory board. Searches were also reported at the bank premises.

NABU has released excerpts of intercepted conversations.

Fragments reference "bags of money," discussions of registering assets or proceeds in the names of children, including high tuition costs, the "Forrest Gump" name itself in a context of concealing theft, and mentions of the Office of the President.

As EuroMaidan writes, "The operation carries a mocking name, Forest Gump, drawn from the suspects' own words. In a 47-second recording of intercepted conversations, one man ties the label to how the group allegedly hid money."

The suspect mocks that one of the co-conspirators used his children's own name to register the stolen money.

"We've got Saving Private Ryan, right? But only an idiot would register the theft of money - and their tuition on top of it - on their own children. That's why, Forest Gump," he said.

Ukrainian anti-corruption investigators reportedly chose the name "Forrest Gump" to mock these statements from their own criminal targets.

Other parts of the conversation reference cash and the presidential administration directly. "Well, there are four bags of money there," one voice says on the tape.

Another chimed in, saying: "If we do this, you can drive to the Office of the President yourselves. Believe me. I can see it."

Investigators allege the group gained effective control over Sense Bank around early June 2026.According to NABU/SAPO details released as part of the operation, the group organized money laundering of $3.5 million in cash (UAH 150 million).

The funds were introduced into legal circulation through accounts of shell companies and Sense Bank to post bail for one of the defendants in the earlier "Midas" case, which was linked to former Energy and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko.

Cash was reportedly delivered in tranches, processed via controlled entities, and partially directed toward the High Anti-Corruption Court bail account. Allegations include that Mudra was expected to help arrange the raising of these funds and that unidentified individuals from the President's Office tasked her with efforts related to bringing Sense Bank under greater control.

Investigators also seized a document described as an anti-crisis communications playbook outlining steps and messaging to shape public opinion around a Verkhovna Rada temporary investigative commission, framing it as an "audit, not attack" while shielding President Zelensky and his cabinet.

The probe has also documented alleged attempts to place controlled individuals in NABU and other law-enforcement bodies.

Incredibly, NABU has already posted these documents directly to Telegram.

Who is involved in the broader corruption scandal in Ukraine?

One of the main suspects in the related investigation is businessman Tymur Mindich. He is the co-owner of the Kwartal 95 production studio, which was founded and headed in the past by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Fearing arrest in the Energoatom affair (Operation Midas), Mindich fled to Israel. The Midas case centers on alleged large-scale kickbacks, approximately 10-15 percent of contract values, at the state nuclear company Energoatom, involving roughly $100 million in illicit funds, with the group using code names and cash deliveries.

During searches of Mindich's premises in November 2025, investigators found large quantities of cash and a golden toilet, along with a golden bidet, in one of the bathrooms of his opulent Kyiv apartment - details that became a public symbol of excess and were widely referred to as the "golden toilet scandal," which Remix News reported extensively on.

Mindich was not the only key figure to flee to Israel. His close associate, Oleksandr Tsukerman, also fled. The country does not extradite its citizens but Ukraine later imposed sanctions and issued international arrest warrants.

Among the suspects in the Midas scandal was the former head of Volodymyr Zelensky's office, Andriy Yermak. The former head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office has been charged under the Criminal Code of Ukraine with laundering property obtained as a result of a crime. The alleged laundering of UAH 460 million, about $10.5 million, allegedly occurred during the construction of the Dynastia luxury housing complex in Kozyn near Kyiv.

According to investigators, some of the funds used for the construction may have come from corruption activities at Energoatom. The court then issued an arrest warrant for Yermak.

It stipulated that he would be able to be released if he paid bail of 140 million hryvnias. In mid-May, Andriy Yermak was released from custody after posting bail.

The Forrest Gump operation is now being presented as connected to the wider Midas network of allegations involving high-level influence over strategic state enterprises, money laundering, and related luxury projects. Developments remain ongoing, with NABU indicating further details would be released.

Polish state media outlet TVP reported: "The latest operation could further intensify scrutiny of the political establishment as President Volodymyr Zelensky's government faces pressure to demonstrate progress in tackling corruption while Ukraine continues its war with Russia. It also poses a fresh headache for Zelenskyy after ousted defense chief Mykhailo Fedorov called for wartime elections in a bombshell statement late on Tuesday."

The question now remains: Is the noose tightening around Zelensky himself, or will he emerge from this massive corruption scandal of close associates squeaky clean?

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 02:00

Pennsylvania Dangles Permitting Carrot For Data Centers That Bring Their Own Power

Submitted by Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

Pennsylvania will give data center projects preferential permitting treatment if they commit to a set of power supply, environmental and cost-responsibility requirements under an executive order issued Tuesday by Gov. Josh Shapiro, D.

The state Department of Environmental Protection will develop the new review process. To receive a faster state permitting review, data center projects in Pennsylvania must source their electricity from new power supplies, including from growing amounts of firm clean power, according to the order, which affects proposals for projects with a peak demand of more than 25 MW.

The order “should further close the door” to the idea that independent power producers like Talen Energy, Vistra and PSEG Power will be able to sell power from their existing generating assets under long-term contracts to data centers in Pennsylvania, Jefferies equity analysts said in a note on Wednesday. However, Talen’s legacy deal to sell power from its majority-owned Susquehanna nuclear power plant to an Amazon data center appears safe, according to the note.

Shapiro’s executive order comes amid a wave of action by state and local governments aimed at setting limits on data center development. At least 81 cities and counties have moratoria on data center development, according to a National League of Cities database unveiled Wednesday.

Under the permitting framework set by the executive order, data center developers that sign a consent order and agreement requiring them to abide by the state’s infrastructure development standards unveiled in February will receive preferential treatment compared to those that don’t.

Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission Chairman Steve DeFrank speaks Aug. 18, 2026, at a data center-related executive order signing ceremony. Courtesy of Pennsylvania governor’s office

For example, applicants that execute a consent order and agreement will have their projects reviewed by DEP on a rolling basis, whereas for developers that don’t sign, the state won’t consider their applications until they have all local permits in hand as well as any needed water withdrawal or wastewater discharge authorizations.

“We have so much speculation in Pennsylvania — like, gold rush speculation on these data centers,” Katie Blume, political and legislative director for Conservation Voters of Pennsylvania, told Utility Dive in an interview. “A lot of this [order] is going to be weeding out those bad actors because they’re not going to want to spend five years in the permitting process.”

But Dan Diorio, executive vice president for state policy and government affairs for the Data Center Coalition, sounded a note of caution in an emailed statement.

“It’s important that rules are not changed midstream impacting ongoing investment in verified and responsible data center projects,” Diorio said. “Data centers take compliance and accountability seriously, building only where they are authorized to do so under local, state, and federal rules and regulations.”

The infrastructure development standards include requiring data centers to pay for “all costs caused in whole or in part by the interconnection, service, or load of a [data center] project, including any costs associated with energy and ancillary services, transmission, distribution, network upgrades.”

Besides requiring data centers to be supplied by new generating resources from the same local PJM Interconnection zone where the facilities are built, they must be supplied from growing amounts of firm clean energy such as solar, advanced nuclear and battery storage, Shapiro said when he signed the executive order.

The firm clean energy requirements ramp up from 10% on Jan. 1 to 14.5% three years later and 32% by Jan. 1, 2035.

The executive order directs the Pennsylvania DEP to expedite permitting for clean energy and storage facilities on brownfield sites. The DEP must also facilitate the use of advanced reconductoring and other advanced transmission technologies on existing transmission rights-of-way.

In prepared remarks, Shapiro pointed to the speed of data center development in the state, which he said has “seen an unacceptable number of speculative proposals ... many of them led by developers who have no regard for local communities.”

PPL Electric has about 20.7 GW of potential data center load with electric service agreements in Pennsylvania, according to an Aug. 7 investor presentation. FirstEnergy utilities in Pennsylvania have data center contracts totaling nearly 1 GW, the company said in a July 28 presentation.

It is unclear how those data center projects will be affected by the executive order, but slowing data center development could affect utility transmission spending in the state, the Jefferies analysts noted.

Exelon, FirstEnergy and PPL are “materially increasing their transmission investment with data center demand a key driver,” the analysts said. “If the pace of data center growth slows, we see downside pressure to the pace of transmission investments.”

Currently, data center-driven transmission costs are being shared with residential and other utility customers, they noted.

Shapiro’s executive order directed the state Office of Transformation and Opportunity to remove any existing data center project from the PA Permit Fast Track Program, established in 2024, and rescinded their eligibility for the program. It also barred state agencies from entering into confidential agreements with data center developers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 23:25

"Let's Downsize": Antifa Uses Instagram To Put 'Luigi-Style' Hit On Flock Camera CEO

Karlyn Borysenko, who describes herself as an anti-communist analyst and observer of the far-left, posted a screenshot of an Instagram post from an account called "3chordpolitics." The post could be interpreted as a targeted, implicitly violent communication directed at Garrett Langley, founder and CEO of Flock Safety.

With high confidence, the 3chordpolitics post deliberately invokes violence against CEOs. As Borysenko wrote on X, "Antifa on Instagram is issuing death threats to CEOs, referencing bullets and Luigi Mangione, and essentially using the platform to call for more CEO assassinations."

Antifa on Instagram is issuing death threats to CEOs, reference bullets and Luigi Mangione and essentially using the platform to call for more CEO assassination.

This was posted 20 minutes ago. pic.twitter.com/hchqfmVG5i

— Karlyn Borysenko, anti-communist cult leader (@DrKarlynB) August 19, 2026

Here are the threat indicators present in the post:

• CEO Garrett Langley is individually named and pictured.
• A black bar obscures his eyes, creating a targeting effect.
• Three bullets appear alongside a Luigi character, likely a coded reference to Luigi Mangione and the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
• The slogan "No CEO Left Behind" appears to imply hostility toward Langley and CEOs as a class.
• The caption "Let's downsize" functions as a double entendre, suggesting the physical elimination of a CEO.

The account's prior posts suggest it is aligned with the far-left, given its apparent sympathy for Luigi Mangione, calls to dox ICE agents, advocacy for work stoppages, and encouragement of rioting. These positions broadly reflect elements of both reformist socialism and far-left revolution.

Borysenko recently published a five-tiered "rainbow cake" depicting her view of the American left, ranging from establishment Democrats who favor incremental reform within capitalism to revolutionary socialists who seek to abolish the existing system and destroy the nation from within.

As a reminder, the DSA cult sits on the far-left.  

As of Thursday morning, Instagram had yet to remove the post. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 23:00

The All-Seeing Eye

Authored by Todd Hayen via OffGuardian,

What was once the paranoid whisper of conspiracy has become the marketed convenience of 'life logging' - yet beneath the promise of perfect memory lies the total erasure of privacy, turning every shrew into a unwitting performer on the surveillance stage.

(If you haven't read enough of my work to know what a "shrew" is, read this: Sheep and Shrew)

During a recent three-hour ramble with my sister - one of those wide-ranging, idea-sparking talkathons we've shared for years - the little recording device I had just bought, attached to my phone, quietly drank it all in. Every tangent on culture, politics, family, and the state of the world was captured, summarized, and later served back as a tidy slideshow of "highlights." It auto-suggested calendar entries, pulled up past chats on demand, and generally made itself indispensable.

For a moment, I felt the rush: This is the future. No more forgotten details, no more scrambling for notes. Pure magic.

I will disclose immediately that I have purchased several of these odd devices mostly out of curiosity, but also out of an attempt to record various "having fun moments" of my life (like a recent dog adventure to a local pond, and our three-day trip to New York City to see Swan Lake). I won't go into my personal experience (with the intentions just stated) out of fear it will bore you; ask in the comments if you would like to know.

Here I will make my general comments on what I feel the impact such devices will have on our human culture. What masquerades as personal empowerment is a profound archetypal shift toward total surveillance, eroding privacy, authenticity, and human freedom - normalizing the sheeple's willing submission while shrews must stay vigilant.

Woo-hoo, what else is new?

During my conversation with my sister, the shrew in me stirred almost immediately. That ancient archetype of the All-Seeing Eye - once reserved for gods, tyrants, or paranoid fantasies - had slipped into the room wearing the friendly face of convenience. What felt like an innocent companion was, in truth, a silent recorder turning private exchange into permanent data. And I had invited it in.

This is how the trap springs. Not with jackboots and cameras in every corner (though those exist too), but with sleek little devices marketed as extensions of ourselves. Wearable AI pins, smart glasses, neck discs - they promise perfect memory while quietly building the most intimate profile imaginable: where we go, what we say, who we say it to, and how we feel about it all. Street cameras and smartphone sensors already blanket the public square; these wearables drag the surveillance indoors, into our conversations, our homes, our unguarded moments with loved ones. The panopticon goes portable.

We've seen this pattern before. Remember when "just a phone" became a pocket tracker? Or how contact-tracing apps during the scamdemic morphed from "temporary emergency tools" into permanent fixtures in the biosecurity state? The same sleight of hand is at work here. Tech companies dangle the carrot - Never forget a name! Relive every precious moment! Let AI organize your chaos! - and the sheeple flock to it, bleating about how "empowering" it all feels. The sheep, yes, and at least one sheep-like shrew. Me.

Meanwhile, the other shrews (you) feel the water getting warmer. You are more aware than me that every logged conversation is fodder for training models, targeted ads, behavioural predictions, or worse - subpoenas, hacks, or authoritarian overreach. Deepfakes already erode trust in video evidence; add always-on personal recording, and alibis become meaningless, private truths become contestable, and authentic human connection withers under the gaze of the machine.

My sister and I laughed about it at first. Then the unease settled in. What if one of those "helpful" summaries gets shared without consent? What if the data shapes how others (or algorithms) perceive us? The archetype of the all-seeing eye doesn't just watch - it consumes. It flattens the rich, contradictory mess of human life into clean, marketable data points.

From a Jungian perspective, this is no mere gadget problem. It is the externalization of the Self's shadow - the watcher within projected onto silicon. Privacy is not just a legal right; it is the sacred space where the psyche breathes, where shadow integrates, where anima and animus dance unseen. Strip that away, and we become performers, constantly curating our words for an invisible audience. The sheepsters may not notice - they've grown accustomed to the slowly boiling pot. But the shrew feels the contraction of soul.

This is the latest chapter in the long war on autonomy waged primarily by the advocates of transhumanism and technoculture. Digital passports, social credit systems, vaccine mandates - each promised safety or convenience while tightening the noose. AI wearables complete the circle: they don't just monitor the body or the public square; they ingest the mind itself, turning inner dialogue into training data for the next generation of control.

We are not far from the logical endpoint - stylish glasses with always-on cameras, or worse, neural implants that record thoughts before they become words. The marketers will call it "seamless augmentation." The shrew calls it the end of anything resembling private life. But here we go.

Woo-hoo again, what fun!

Obviously, we have known about all this techno-joy for quite some time: science fiction novels, 50's SciFi movies, superhero comic books, Star Trek, Outer Limits and Battlestar Galactica TV series, among many other media enticements. All techno gadgets presented in these resources have been emblazoned into our feeble brains (not you, of course!), always looking for the next exciting and fun thing to engage with.

Why do we have to move back into the techno-less past in our effort to survive? Why can't we take this fun ride into a more convenient, more joyous, more exciting future with interesting "things" to fiddle with? Primarily because there is likely an evil intention behind it all. We can never forget the agenda, and one of the prime tools of manipulation the agenda thrives on is private information.

So, what do we do? Do we stop participating in this new science-fiction-turned-reality world? Do we just get the hell off the grid, and live in some backward fourth-world country drinking milk out of a coconut? That's one way to do it; another is to simply become more aware and conscious.

Awareness itself is resistance. Turn the All-Seeing Eye inward. Use these tools sparingly, consciously, and never without remembering what they truly cost. Talk with your pack. Document the unease. Keep the conversations that matter offline when you can.

The water is heating, my dear shrew. But we still have legs to jump - and voices to warn the others before the lid clamps shut for good.

Todd Hayen PhD is a registered psychotherapist practicing in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. He holds a PhD in depth psychotherapy and an MA in Consciousness Studies. He specializes in Jungian, archetypal, psychology. Todd also writes for his own substack, which you can read here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 22:35

Cost Of Living Remains Biggest Challenge Facing Americans

The war in Iran marked a significant setback in Americans' year-long battle with high prices.

While inflation has come down a long way from its 2021/2022 highs, when it peaked at 9 percent, it remains elevated at 3.4 percent.

More importantly though, as Statista's Felix Richter reports, people are still struggling to cope with the lasting effects of the inflation crisis.

According to a Statista Consumer Insights survey conducted between January and July 2026, 53 percent of U.S. adults said that the high cost of living was one of the biggest challenges they currently face – making it by far the most common answer ahead of mental and physical health at 26 percent each.

You will find more infographics at Statista

It is a common misconception that prices come down when inflation cools, when in reality a period of high inflation leaves a legacy of high prices.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. consumer prices have increased 26.7 percent since January 2021, with some categories seeing even steeper price increases than that.

Food prices are up 27.2 percent, rents have increased more than 30 percent and transportation prices are up 35 percent.

And yet, nominal wages have only grown 25.7 percent since January 2021, leaving many people worse off than they were five years ago.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 22:10

Hawaii Could Face Another Hurricane This Weekend

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Hawaii could face its second tropical storm or hurricane in a week as a low-pressure system was reported on Aug. 19 to be developing near the islands.

Another tropical storm is expected to develop in the Central Pacific as Hurricane Lala moves away from Hawaii on Aug. 19, 2026. National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center warned that the system was developing thunderstorms that had a 90 percent chance of organizing into a cyclone in the next 48 hours.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and crosses into the Central Pacific,” the center advised.

“Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.”

As of 4:30 p.m. ET on Aug. 19, forecast models generally estimated the storm to remain offshore and pass well south of the archipelago, with the closest pass being on the southern point of the Big Island around Aug. 23.

Some models indicate that a pocket of high pressure will remain over the Big Island during this time.

If this storm develops into a tropical storm—that is, it organizes into a proper cyclone with sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph—it will become Tropical Storm Moke.

Meanwhile, residents across multiple islands continue to reel from the close pass of Hurricane Lala just one week ago.

The Big Island was hit with more than three feet of rain in some places, triggering catastrophic flooding and landslides that rendered highways impassable and washed away entire homes, particularly in the communities of Naalehu and Waiohinu.

Power outages, downed trees, rock slides, and severe winds also impacted the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Oahu, and Kauai over the previous weekend.

Major airports on Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island remained accessible and operational at some capacity on Aug. 16.

The governor closed all state and county offices as well as all schools and judiciary offices on Aug. 17 due to the damage the hurricane left behind.

Hawaiian Electric estimated that some customers in the southeast end of the Big Island could be without power through Labor Day weekend, with 95 percent expected to have power restored by Sept. 8, if the new storm development does not disrupt their work.

“We understand that it is frustrating and challenging to be without power,” the company said on X.

“Due to significant storm damage, customers in certain remote or severely damaged areas should prepare to be without power for much longer periods of time.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 17:00

The Harp Defense: Jennings Jockeys For SPOX After Leavitt Leaves

CNN political contributor and nationally syndicated radio host Scott Jennings just dropped a full-throated defense of Natalie Harp after reports surfaced that the conservative commentator is angling to replace outgoing White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, according to Politico's Playbook.

"I just don't think that's what you sign up for when you're someone like Natalie Harp, who never put her name on a ballot. She's not the White House press secretary. She's not a household name, and I just find it to be appalling," Jennings told Playbook. "Somebody needs to defend her honor."

Harp, the 35-year-old special assistant to President Donald Trump, has spent years flying under the radar as one of the president's most constant aides. Insiders call her the "human printer" because she packs a portable printer everywhere, churning out hard copies of news articles, social-media posts and anything else Trump wants to see on paper, according to the anti-Trump publication The Bulwark.

That low profile shattered this week when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) name-dropped her at a Georgia campaign rally, accusing the Trump of preferring to "build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar" rather than fully attend to his official duties.

Harp first caught Trump's eye in 2019 when she publicly credited his Right to Try legislation with opening the door to experimental treatment for bone cancer, the New York Times reports.

Meanwhile, no decision was made and no offer extended an offer to Jennings to take the podium. A report from NOTUS on Wednesday paraphrased Trump as saying he is "not quite sold" on Jennings for the role. The report did note, though, that the president would prefer a man to succeed the outgoing Leavitt.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 15:00

Tonight: Trump To Appear On Turncoat Michael Cohen's Radio Show

Michael Cohen - Donald Trump's former 'fixer' who once vowed to take a bullet for him, only to flip after he was raided by the FBI in 2018 in the Stormy Daniels hush-money probe - says that Trump has agreed to appear on his New York City-area radio show this week.

Cohen wrote on X on Wednesday to confirm that Trump would appear on “the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday” show on 770 WABC Radio.

It’s not for the podcast…it’s the radio show I’m hosting tomorrow night at 6pm and the rest on my Sunday 5pm est radio show on 77WABC radio called “When You Know…You Know”. https://t.co/ap68IAlrcJ

— Michael Cohen (@MichaelCohen212) August 19, 2026

Cohen told CBS that this will be "the first public conversation between the president and myself in eight years," adding "You know, there have been private conversations that have, of course, been reported. But this is the first public conversation."

As the Epoch Times notes further, Cohen also linked to a Substack article that served as a recollection of the public feud the two had, which included Cohen testifying against Trump in his New York City criminal trial in 2024. Cohen served as one of the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office’s star witnesses, alleging the president was intensely involved in a plan to pay off a former adult film actress during his 2016 campaign.

“Eight years of silence. Hundreds of thousands of headlines. Fifteen years of history fractured in an instant, and somehow, against almost every expectation, here we are. Since yesterday’s announcement broke, my inbox has once again become a digital battlefield. It has been flooded with hatred, anger, disbelief, and some of the most spectacularly vicious things imaginable,” Cohen wrote.

He later wrote that “apparently, quite a few are ready to personally escort me to the gates of hell for daring to share a microphone with Donald Trump again.”

Speaking to Politico on Wednesday, Cohen answered a question about whether he would seek a presidential pardon.

Cohen in 2018 was sentenced to three years in federal prison after pleading guilty to campaign finance violations, tax evasion, bank fraud, and lying to Congress. He completed his sentence and supervision requirements in November 2021.

“We’ll see,” he said in response. “Will I make that request down the road? I don’t know. Maybe maybe not.”

Referring to the upcoming interview, Cohen told the outlet that listeners will be “interested to hear two individuals that were friends for a decade and a half who have not publicly spoken in eight years” talk about their past.

Trump, who was convicted in a jury trial on 34 counts of falsifying business records, denied the charges against him and pleaded not guilty. He has long said that the Manhattan district attorney’s case and cases that were brought against him in Georgia, Washington, and Florida were a “political witch hunt.”

The judge who oversaw the case, Juan Merchan, sentenced Trump to an unconditional discharge in January 2025, coming about two months after Trump won reelection.

In his first term, Trump often criticized Cohen in response to claims his former lawyer made about him, writing on X in 2018: “If anyone is looking for a good lawyer, I would strongly suggest that you don’t retain the services of Michael Cohen!” Cohen would often appear on then-MSNBC and CNN to criticize the first Trump term.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:40

Has Iranian Crude Become Irrelevant To Global Oil Supply?

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova Of OilPrice.com

The reinstated U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports is effectively preventing Tehran from exporting oil, making Iran’s oil volumes irrelevant for global oil market balances, Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC on Thursday.

The U.S. brought back the blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at preventing Iran from exporting its oil after the ‘deal to make a deal’ collapsed in July and hostilities in the Middle East returned.

The blockade, which the U.S. had lifted for about three weeks while negotiations were being held in June and early July, is now back and effectively blockading Iran’s oil exports.

“Kharg Island is not exporting anymore,” McNally told CNBC, referring to Iran’s key oil export terminal that handles more than 90% of all shipments.

“Iran has stopped being a factor for the oil market in terms of its exports because of the blockade,” McNally said.

Iran may have been removed from the real barrels count, but the crude oil futures market is underpricing geopolitical risk, the energy expert told CNBC.

“The refined products are telling the story” of how crude futures may be underpricing the tightness in the global oil market, according to McNally.

In addition, “the market has become a little less optimistic about near-term and sustainable reopening of Hormuz,” he said, adding that the longer the disruption goes on, “the risk is that crude will follow products higher.”

Brent Crude prices topped $91 per barrel this week amid heightened security concerns for shipping in the Middle East and fading hopes that the U.S. and Iran could return to negotiations.

The refined product market, however, is already flashing severe tightness, with the diesel crack spread hitting record highs in both the United States and Europe this week.

The diesel crack spread in the United States hit triple digits this week, for the first time ever. The premium over crude prices jumped to as high as $102 per barrel on Monday, before easing slightly to about $100 a barrel on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:00

"Significant" Tornado Threat Incoming For DC To Baltimore To Philadelphia

Senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci of private weather forecaster MyRadarWX is monitoring the potential for isolated tornadoes along the Interstate 95 corridor, from areas north of Washington, D.C., through Baltimore and Wilmington, Delaware, and into the Philadelphia metro area.

Tornadoes are not unheard of in the Mid-Atlantic, but a potential setup later this afternoon capable of producing multiple tornadoes across a large swath of Maryland, Delaware, and southeastern Pennsylvania would be unusual.

"Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line. There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly," Cappucci wrote on X earlier this morning. 

Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line.

There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly. pic.twitter.com/9grxM09gXd

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX posted for the Mid-Atlantic region: 

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95. While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two. Subtle influences, like the bay breeze, may provide an additional source of low-level spin. The main wildcard is how quickly a southward-advancing cold front moves. Too quick, and it could undercut storms/sweep them into a non-tornadic line. A bit slower, however, and easterly surface winds ahead of it could bolster low-level spin, increasing tornado risk.

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95.

While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two.

Subtle… pic.twitter.com/lQPRr2pQxt

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX's timing of the incoming storm for the region, with a possible "isolated EF2+ 'significant' tornado," is for Thursday afternoon. 

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado. That would be predicated on the formation of a supercell or two (rotating thunderstorms) ahead of an eventual squall line. The greatest chance is in northeastern Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey or the northern Delmarva. Low probability, but high impact if it happens.

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado.

That would be predicated on… pic.twitter.com/Cm591DsvDu

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

The National Weather Service tornado scale states that an EF2 tornado can tear roofs off homes, destroy mobile homes, snap large trees, and turn debris into dangerous projectiles. MyRadarWX's risk forecast is not an official warning from the National Weather Service.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 13:40

Board Won't Add Trump's Name To Kennedy Center Before Sept. 8, Filing Says

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Kennedy Center’s board told federal court that it will not try to put President Donald Trump’s name back on the building’s facade before at least Sept. 8, giving both sides time to discuss a new resolution opponents say flouts a prior court order.

In a joint status report filed late on Aug. 18, attorneys for the center and the U.S. Department of Justice said the board would delay enforcing the so-called recognition resolution the board approved on Aug. 13.

The measure stated that the board would add an inscription reading, “Restored and Renovated by President Donald J. Trump,” and rename the plaza in front of the building after the president.

Another resolution approved the same day provided that the center be closed for two years for renovations.

This means that some of the institution’s high-profile programming, such as the Kennedy Center Honors and the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor, would have to be presented off-site.

The National Symphony Orchestra said days ago that it would divide its upcoming season among six venues in and around the nation’s capital.

Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), an ex officio member of the center’s board of trustees, filed the lawsuit challenging the center’s first renaming—as “The Donald J. Trump and The John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts”—in December 2025.

Attorneys for Beatty said in the new filing that the latest name change resolution was a “breathtaking act of defiance.”

The statute that created the center “provides no lawful basis” to ignore the federal district court’s prior ruling and “impose Donald Trump’s name on a memorial dedicated by the Congress exclusively to a different President,” they said.

“Defendants are, once again, trying to memorialize Donald Trump—something the statute expressly prohibits,” her lawyers added.

U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper ordered Trump’s name taken off the center’s marble facade on May 29, setting a removal deadline of June 12. Construction crews used scaffolding to begin physically prying the words “Donald Trump” off the facade in the early morning hours of June 13.

In the status report, the center said the scaffolding and a protective cover known as a tarp are needed for water testing and structural repairs to the roof overhang and its underside, and that the scaffolding was also used to remove the president’s name.

Beatty’s attorneys disputed that explanation, arguing the structure is in place to keep the Kennedy name obscured and prevent a return to the pre-litigation status quo.

They asked Cooper to rule before Sept. 8 on the lawfulness of the recognition resolution, arguing that the board seemed ready to act as soon as the center’s voluntary pause of free public tours ended.

The lawmaker’s attorneys also asked the court to direct the center to show cause why the covering should not be removed within 30 days, and to order the parties to begin discovery, an evidence-gathering process, into the shutdown decision.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 13:00

The Great Reversal: Decades-Long Bond Bull Lacy Hunt On His Bearish Pivot, Tonight

For nearly four decades, Dr. Lacy Hunt has been one of Wall Street's most steadfast bond bulls.

As chief economist of Hoisington Investment Management, Hunt built his reputation around a simple but powerful thesis: globalization, excessive debt and slowing growth would keep inflation and interest rates suppressed. He maintained that view through the aftermath of the financial crisis, a decade of ultra-easy monetary policy, and even the COVID explosion in money supply and inflation.

Now, the bond legend is making a major pivot.

Hoisington has slashed the duration of its bond portfolio and moved the proceeds into short-dated Treasury bills. With that, the wealth management firm also declared: the disinflationary regime that dominated the global economy from roughly 1990 through 2020 may be coming to an end.

Tonight at 7PM ET, Hunt will join ZeroHedge to explain why.

Hunt’s pivot preceded yesterday’s bond market scare followed by the Bessent Buyback we covered yesterday… evidently the bull turned bearish just in time.

At the heart of Hunt's new thesis are three structural changes: globalization is reversing (tariffs, onshoring), the global labor glut is disappearing (birthrate, aging boomers), and capital is becoming scarce (government deficits).  

Indeed it is https://t.co/b12Aqslmd5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 19, 2026

On the other hand, long-term inflation expectations remain relatively subdued. Foreign capital continues flowing into Treasuries. Global trade recently hit record levels relative to world GDP. And Hunt's thesis gives relatively little weight to the possibility that AI eventually produces a productivity boom powerful enough to become a major disinflationary force.

That is where tonight's discussion begins.

Hunt will be joined by Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money and Brent Johnson, who popularized the "Dollar Milkshake Theory."

Taggart and Johnson will probe Hunt's new framework and pressure-test the assumptions behind one of the most consequential macro pivots in recent memory.

We'll ask the man himself. Watch tonight at 7PM ET here on the ZeroHedge homepage, X feed, and YouTube channel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 12:40

Mass Casualties In Large Russian Assault On Ukraine's Capital, Air Defenses Dwindle

Ukraine started the week with near record-setting drone attacks on Moscow, with over 600 UAVs sent against the Russian capital Monday night into Tuesday.

The expected major Russian retaliation has come overnight, with a huge missile and drone barrage on the Ukrainian capital. Many dozens were sent, killing over 16 people and injuring more than 40, local authorities report.

Ukrainian media

The casualty rate was high despite that Ukraine says it managed to intercept nearly 90% of inbound projectiles, which it did not give a total figure for.

Local media reports indicate the capital city's Solomianskyi district district was the worst hit:

In the Sviatoshynskyi district, a Russian attack damaged buildings on non-residential property. In addition, a fire broke out in the warehouse facilities there.

In the Solomianskyi district, debris damaged the upper floors of a 9-story residential building, after which a fire broke out there. Rescue workers have already extinguished it. Windows were also shattered in four nearby residential buildings.

At another location, debris caused a fire on the upper floors of a 4-story building.

In addition, a school and a children's hospital were damaged in the Solomianskyi district. Windows were shattered at the hospital, and cars caught fire on its grounds. The fire has been extinguished. Garages were also damaged.

President Zelensky used the devastation to once again call on the West to urgently provide more Patriot systems, amid dwindling anti-air supplies.

"The interceptors for Patriot systems have not yet been replaced, and they are needed every day," Zelensky wrote in a Telegram post on Thursday. "Each additional missile saves the lives of our people."

The Russian defense ministry said in familiar messaging that it was targeting military-industrial sites connected to the Ukrainian armed forces.

A Russian ballistic missile attack struck Ukrainian capital Kyiv overnight on Wednesday, killing at least nine people and wounding 60 others, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. #WorldNow pic.twitter.com/W1LFPApSO1

— CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) August 20, 2026

In the meantime, an example of Ukraine's own latest aerial assaults deep into Russian territory is seen in the following: "One regional publication notes that among the latest include: "in Russia, authorities in the republic of Tatarstan said several people were injured and homes were damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 12:00

Bessent: Aim Is To 'Collapse' Iran Regime Through Economic Warfare, But US Unlikely To Restart Major Combat Summary

• US shifts toward economic warfare, away from military strikes: Bessent says maximum sanctions likely mean no major new military campaign for now.
• Regime change rhetoric persists: Bessent says Washington intends to "collapse" Iran's regime.
• USS George Washington arrives: A new US carrier is now operating in the Middle East, relieving the over-extended USS Lincoln.
• Iran rejects US threats as a Trump "diversion": Tehran calls the campaign "economic terrorism" and says Washington is seeking an exit.
• Axios claim of 'stealth corridor' where oil is moving steadily through Hormuz results in skepticism & some pushback.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Yes 6% · No 95%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Bessent: Going to 'Collapse this Regime'

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a CNBC appearance seemed to give additional confirmation that further Pentagon operations targeting Iran are unlikely to happen down the line. He also furthered Trump's 'Economic D-Day' plan and threat.

"If we are doing the maximum economic pressure, then that means that likely there will not be a large-scale kinetic restart," Bessent said in a "Squawk on the Street" interview. 

He previewed a press conference which the administration plans to give Monday to "talk about exactly what we're going to do." Apparently the White House is keen on resurrecting Bush-Cheney era talking points in the effort to push global countries to comply with a full economic siege and strangulation of the Islamic Republic. According to CNBC:

In a preview of the plan, he said that the U.S. will be telling all of its allies, “You are either with us or against us.”

“If you insist on doing business with [Iran], either transferring money, buying their oil or doing seaborne ship transfers, then the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. government ... will put its full might and force toward enforcing against you,” Bessent said.

“This is going to be the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world,” he said.

He also said in the interview at one point that "we are going to collapse this regime." Of course, none of this is necessarily new in terms of talking points'...

Bessent: "I'm not sure why oil has popped up on this, because for now -- and it's at the president's discretion -- if we're doing the maximum economic pressure, then that means that likely there will not be a large scale kinetic restart. But I would emphasize that is for now ...… pic.twitter.com/IYsWhsomgN

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 20, 2026

USS Washington Carrier now in Region

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has on Thursday confirmed the USS George Washington is now deployed in the Middle East, following the lengthy, over-extended deployment of personnel onboard the USS Lincoln, which has sparked crisis and media frenzy over poor conditions, lack of supplies, and worsening morale.

"The George Washington Carrier Strike Group is operating in Middle East during a scheduled deployment after arriving in the CENTCOM theater yesterday," the command said in a statement posted on X.

CENTCOM image of the USS George Washington flight deck

The USS Washington will now be the military's frontline carrier leading the mission in regional waters, which has featured an ongoing blockade of Iranian ports.

Iran Responds to Trump's 'Economic D-Day'

President Trump had the evening prior issued a Truth Social post describing a new "ECONOMIC D-DAY" against Iran, declaring that his total economic war against Tehran will be the "MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY."

Trump said that with Tehran's military and military-industrial base reduced to "now rubble" and its "currency worthless," he will unleash severe economic consequences against "ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran."

On Thursday Iranian leaders responded to the D-Day threat, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating on X that Trump’s announcement is designed to distract from Washington’s "unprecedented debt & surging interest costs". He said the new economic measures will "bring further defeat" to the US. He added that "US economic terrorism threatens [the] global economy and sovereignty worldwide.

US Desperately Seeks Exit, Says Iranian Official

Another top Iranian official elsewhere asserted the US seeks exit from the region:

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf visited Iraq on Wednesday and said that the US was seeking to exit the region, comments that come following a report from The Washington Post that said the Pentagon is considering pulling back from the Persian Gulf after many of its bases in the area were heavily damaged by Iranian strikes.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also weighed in with another message, saying Washington is headed towards its next defeat. "They claim Iran is on the verge of defeat, hanging by a thread, yet they are begging all their allies to help them," he posted on X.

Meanwhile Qatar is still seeking mediation and de-escalation, with Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani having said Thursday that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must go back to what it was before. He urged that no party go back to "blackmailing" the other.

"The consequences of this war were grave, not only on the Gulf region but elsewhere in the world," Sheikh Mohammed told reporters at a press briefing following high-level discussions in El Alamein, Egypt.

"We need the situation to go back to what it used to be before" he said. "We condemn any threats in this regard in any obstacles."

Axios Report on 'Stealth' Hormuz Corridor

On the question of global shipping flows through the strait, much remains to be seen following a controversial Axios report issued Wednesday which said the Pentagon has successfully established a stealth corridor in and out of the strait. Here are the key untested claims, which await verification:

• Under the operation, which has been underway for the last several weeks, 15–20 tankers have entered and exited the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman.
• About 10 million barrels of oil a day — roughly half the pre-war volume — are being transported out of the strait and injected into the global energy market, the officials said.

If this is the case, then it's likely to lead to further rounds of war, given Iran is unlikely to sit back and allow the corridor to run smoothly...

I fully agree: "Iran is unlikely to accept a situation in which it cannot export oil while other Gulf producers continue to do so. Paradoxically, therefore, America’s relative operational success could become a driver of further Iranian escalation." https://t.co/I2IuU0deyU

— Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz) August 20, 2026

'Stealth' Corridor Story True?

Of course, many analysts have pointed out that Axios has not been reliable on oil and Iran related reports, which tend to come out at sensitive moments timeline-wise, perhaps for maximum impact on markets.

Regional watcher and Atlantic Council author Danny Citrinowicz writes, "There is a fundamental paradox at the heart of the current U.S. approach to Iran: Washington wants to avoid another major military campaign, yet the very strategy it is pursuing to achieve that goal may make renewed military escalation increasingly difficult to avoid."

"The administration appears to believe that it can dramatically intensify economic pressure, including through aggressive enforcement of secondary sanctions, while keeping the confrontation largely within the economic domain," he continues. "But that assumption misunderstands both Iran’s position and the incentives facing its current leadership." Indeed Washington has seemed to miscalculate and underestimate Tehran at every turn of this nearly 6-month long conflict.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 11:39

EU NatGas Hits 2023 Energy Crisis Levels As Trump's "Economic D-Day" Clouds Hormuz Reopening

European natural gas prices surged to levels last seen during the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when severe supply disruptions sent global markets into turmoil.

The catalyst was an overnight Truth Social post from President Trump declaring "ECONOMIC D-DAY" against Iran. The announcement raises the probability of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime transit corridor for Gulf energy exports.

For Europe, continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would constrain access to Gulf LNG, intensify competition for seaborne cargoes, and deepen the continent's reliance on US supplies. With European storage inventories already well below seasonal norms and the winter replenishment window narrowing, traders are slapping a premium on natural gas prices on Thursday.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe's gas benchmark, rose as much as 2.5% today and soared above 65 euros per megawatt-hour, a level last seen in 1Q23.

Trump stated in an overnight Truth Social post that, with Tehran's military and military-industrial base reduced to "now rubble" and its "currency worthless," he will unleash severe economic consequences against "ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran."

Earlier this week, Simon Penn, a London-based UBS macro strategist, focused on Germany's NatGas storage, which is only 50% full, compared with 57% a year ago and well below the 2009-25 average of 77%.

Europe, more broadly, is well below the 2009-25 average of 74%, with storage currently at around 61%.

It's not just low NatGas storage levels that Europeans have to worry about at this time of year, but also a diesel shortage. Combining these two problems, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, recently warned that this energy crunch is "what keeps her up at night."

Must-Reads:

• "Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night
• Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch
• "Generates A Number Of Risks": UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms

Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats wrote earlier that "the window to normalize before winter is rapidly closing." Translation: Lower NatGas stockpiles will put a bid under prices and fuel inflation across the EU.

At this point, Europeans had better hope that a strong El Niño would produce relatively mild weather. Otherwise, the continent could face a cold and extremely expensive winter.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 11:20

Of Anchovies And Blueberries – Why El Niño Matters

Authored by Nick Smallwood via BondVigilantes.com,

Why aren’t we talking more about El Niño?

After an exceptionally hot, dry summer in Western Europe and elsewhere, climate discussions proliferate. But neither mainstream media nor markets seem to be seriously discussing the risks and opportunities presented by what scientists appear to agree will be a “super El Niño”.  

In a world where food supplies have already been curtailed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (especially wheat and sunflower oil), and where next year’s crop yields could be hit by the high price and/or scarcity of fertiliser due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – through which 30% of global nitrogen and 50% of sulphur traditionally flow – a particularly strong El Niño seems bound to have a substantial impact on the economies of various South Pacific nations, and food-price inflation globally.  

It will also increase the price of logistics. As quoted in the FT on 11th August, raising the cost and decreasing the frequency of transits of the Panama Canal (whose water levels have already dropped dangerously low) will also be inflationary. As food-price inflation has a significant effect on emerging markets, these circumstances should lead to rising rates and currency volatility. We would anticipate plenty of investment opportunities for fixed-income, currency and (agricultural) commodity investors. 

The first point to make is that we are facing – yet again – a climate event of historic proportions. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an 81% likelihood of a “very strong El Niño” (see graph), defined as one where the Pacific warms more than 2°C above the seasonal average and the highest classification they use. This event, however, seems set to be particularly dramatic. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predicts temperatures rising to 3.5°C above average. Considering that the previous peak in November 2015 came in at +2.6°C, we seem set for a profound climate event that smashes all previous records. 

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) July 2026

One of the countries most heavily affected by El Niño is Peru, whose GDP growth can be reduced by over one percentage point by its impact. Extreme weather causes disruption, whether by flooding roads, impacting supply chains or affecting crop yields. Knowing El Niño is coming often deters economic activity and investment as people hunker down for a tough year. 

But it is quite amazing how the effect of El Niño on even a relatively small country like Peru can have a global impact in certain areas.

For instance, Peru is the world’s largest exporter of blueberries (over $2.5bn in 2025), so a substantial reduction in blueberry production will affect the availability and price of this fruit globally.

Next, consider the humble anchovy, which is fished for in great numbers off Peru’s shores. In fact, Peru’s anchovy fishery is considered the largest in the world by volume. During El Niño, the warm waters stress the fish and render them infertile, driving them deeper down to find cooler currents. Peru therefore seems likely to miss out on at least one of its two fishing seasons, with obvious implications for the local fishing industry.

What is less well known is that Peruvian anchovies are used to produce 20% of the world’s fishmeal, which is fed to farmed fish, other aquaculture and livestock. 

It therefore seems likely that people across the globe will notice the cost of fish rising in supermarkets next year. 

Those are just a couple of examples of local effects rippling across the world. But of course the warming of the Pacific Ocean will have a tremendous impact on crop production everywhere. The table below shows the scale of what may well hit us next year. To highlight a few stark examples, Australian wheat yields could collapse by up to 60%, global cocoa and coffee output could fall by 15% and we could see 10% declines in Brazilian corn. The weather will become more extreme, especially in South America, with typhoons, flooding and droughts expected to be more prevalent than usual. This is why we feel that the outlook for food production should have a higher profile than it does because the ramifications could be huge.

Parts of east Africa face serious shortages of staple grains and the prospect of food price inflation more generally is very real – some might say inevitable. 

Source: Band of America ML USDA paper July 2026

We therefore feel strongly that, while the eyes of the world have so far been on the oil price and energy costs, a lot more consideration should be given to the effects of global food supply constraints and prices, especially in Emerging Markets. 

Food prices are a much larger component of inflation baskets than energy in many emerging economies, particularly in Asia (see chart below). 

So while it should surprise nobody that Colombia, Peru and Brazil tend to suffer during periods of El Niño, it may come as more of a shock to realise that the inflationary impact is of similar magnitude on the other side of the world in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Nor does Africa escape its effects, with Egypt and South Africa traditionally the most vulnerable, while in the developed world the UK also takes a hit due to its high proportion of imported food. As we enter the southern hemisphere’s planting season and El Niño begins to take hold, these effects will become more apparent.  

All things considered, the risks of a significant inflationary shock in 2027 driven by food prices – and the real possibility of actual shortages in some parts of the world – have a significant effect on emerging markets.  The risks are rising, and markets are just not pricing it in. 

Source: National statistics, J.P. Morgan, June 2026. Latest data available.
Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.

However, as always, there is a silver lining, which is that disruption brings opportunities as well as risks. 

Investors in agricultural commodities have a fascinating year ahead. Rising inflation should mean a concomitant rise in rates, which will have a significant impact on currencies and local-currency bond markets. There will also be idiosyncratic stories driven by extreme weather. For instance, the last El Niño caused very heavy flooding in southern Brazil in May 2024, destroying crops and local businesses. In turn, this caused fears of a major deterioration in asset quality for the local bank, Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (BRSRBZ), whose outstanding bond price dropped to 89. 

Source: M&G Bloomberg Brazil Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul  5.375% 2031. January 2026

The relatively few investors who followed the name saw how swiftly the government reacted with a support package for the state and bought the bond near its lows.

It was called at par on time early this year. It would be a major surprise if we don’t see further such opportunities emerge this time around.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 11:00

Bitcoin Tops $72k After Largest Single-Day Crypto Short Liquidation In History

Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 for the first time in over two months, propelled by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 'Operation Twist'-like move pushing US bond yields (and the dollar) lower followed by a high-stakes meeting President Trump held with crypto industry leaders.

“When yields drop and the dollar weakens, risk assets tend to rally, and we’ve already seen Bitcoin move higher on the news,” said Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE.

This morning, bitcoin has extended those gains, tagging $72,000...

And Ethereum has surged back up to $2300...

Which lifted ETH/BTC to its strongest level since the start of the year...

Bitcoin ETFs saw major inflows this week, especially yesterday, "as further proof of how institutional demand for crypto-assets is steadily growing,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, co-founder of decentralized-finance firm Algebra.

But, probably the most notable feature of the price action of the last 24 hours (aside from its scale) was the unprecedented liquidation of short crypto positions...

Data from CoinGlass shows ongoing crypto short liquidations at $3.1 billion for Aug. 19-20.

Thursday’s tally was largest single-day wipeout of shorts ever recorded.

As CoinTelegraph reports, CoinGlass shows Bitcoin accounting for just over half of the total short liquidations at $1.65 billion.

The numbers do not represent the largest crypto liquidation event if long positions are included. It is dwarfed by the $20 billion long liquidation cascade that followed Bitcoin’s reversal from the most recent all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.

In US dollar terms, data from CoinMarketCap puts Thursday’s total liquidations in seventh place historically, calculating the day’s long and short liquidations as $3.25 billion.

Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Assets, said yield-curve control “was the second-biggest market catalyst on our bucket list that could potentially supercharge a durable Bitcoin rally.”

The biggest catalyst would be a government mandate to buy Bitcoin for a national reserve, he said.

Bitfire Research notes that this rally was not driven by a single headline, but by a convergence of multiple catalysts: an overcrowded short structure meeting regulatory tailwinds, falling long-end yields, and cross-sector capital rotation.

The most direct trigger came from overcrowded short positions accumulated over six months of consolidation. Bitcoin's prolonged sideways trading around $60,000 allowed leveraged shorts to pile up. When prices broke through key liquidation clusters, forced buybacks triggered a chain reaction of covering, creating a positive feedback loop that amplified the squeeze.

Importantly, the spot market had already been signaling institutional accumulation before the derivatives squeeze erupted. On-chain data monitored by Bitfire Research reveals that institutional capital — including entities with listed company affiliations and vintage whale labels — had been actively accumulating at the $60,000 level. Confirming this picture, Bitfire Group's OTC desk posted a record-breaking July, with total trading volume surging 257% month-over-month. These two data streams — on-chain and OTC — point to the same conclusion: institutional spot buying had already picked up significantly before the price breakout, laying the groundwork for the rally.

On the policy front, the SEC unveiled a new digital asset regulatory framework with a safe harbor mechanism: up to $5 million in the launch phase and up to $75 million annually thereafter, with issuers able to exit securities classification upon completing compliance milestones. This sharply reduces compliance uncertainty for early-stage crypto projects, attracting incremental capital to reassess crypto risk pricing.

Macro liquidity also improved. After the 30-year US Treasury yield hit a near two-decade high, the Treasury announced plans to at least double its long-term bond buyback program, pushing the 30Y yield from 5.337% to 5.189%. Gold surged 4.33% in tandem. The decline in long-end yields opened room for Fed policy adjustments, providing liquidity support for high-beta risk assets.
 
On capital rotation, funds that had piled into AI narratives earlier in the year showed signs of returning. With Anthropic's Q2 revenue growth showing a second-order slowdown, the market began reassessing return expectations across asset classes, and crypto's relative appeal regained attention.

Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the return of positive sentiment to the crypto market was supported by Trump's meeting with crypto executives from firms including Coinbase, Payward, and Blockchain.com. The move helped revive optimism around the Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill that failed to make it to a vote before the Senate’s August recess.

Trump called on Congress to pass a “fair version” of the Clarity Act, telling the crypto and finance executive attendees at the White House that market structure legislation is the next step in his administration’s digital asset agenda.

“Now we need Congress to take the next step by passing the Clarity Act, a fair version of the Clarity Act,” Trump said.

“It’s a very, very powerful structure legislation which will keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else. We’ll open the door to the next wave of innovations and innovators.”

The legislation has stalled over a fight regarding ethics provisions. Trump urged the Senate to pass the bill, and the chamber is expected to take it up again when it returns in mid-September.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 10:40

FBI Seizes Eric Swalwell's Electronic Devices At San Francisco Airport Amid Sexual Misconduct Investigation

The FBI executed a search warrant against former congressman Eric Swalwell on Saturday after he landed at San Francisco Airport - seizing his electronic devices, including his cell phone, as part of a federal investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct, the Daily Mail reports.

According to the report:

The agents, armed with additional court-approved search warrants, then entered his house in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, seizing additional undisclosed potential evidence,  well-placed sources tell the Daily Mail.

Sources say Swalwell started his day Saturday in Washington, where he still maintains a residence with his wife and three children.

He headed to the airport later in the day and flew to his home state of California. The feds were waiting for him when he stepped off the plane.

According to sources, Swalwell was cooperative.

The following day, neither he nor his wife Brittany Watts were home when the feds rolled up to their property in Northeast DC.

The DOJ launched a criminal investigation into multiple sexual assault and misconduct allegations lodged against the California democrat. Meanwhile, the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office is investigating an alleged 2024 sexual assault in a New York City hotel room involving a former staffer, while the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department and District Attorney’s Office have opened inquiries into a separate 2018 claim. Prosecutors have been assigned to review evidence in the LA case.

Agents, armed with additional court-approved search warrants, also entered his house in Washington, DC on Sunday

Swalwell stepped down from congress in April amid bipartisan pressure and a House Ethics Committee probe into the claims, after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported claims from a former staffer and three other women. The former aide accused Swalwell of sexually assaulting her on two occasions: once in 2019 while she was employed by him, and again in April 2024 after a gala event in New York, where she said she was too intoxicated to consent and attempted to refuse. Three additional women described unwanted explicit messages, unsolicited nude photos, and harassment, some occurring during his gubernatorial campaign.

Then a fifth woman, Lonna Drewes - a Beverly Hills-based former model and fashion software entrepreneur - held a news conference to detail her accusations. Drewes alleged that in July 2018, after meeting Swalwell socially and believing they were developing a friendship, he invited her to his West Hollywood hotel room under the pretense of picking up papers. She claimed he drugged her drink, raped her, and choked her until she lost consciousness. Drewes said she had only one glass of wine that evening and provided authorities with journal entries, texts, and photos as evidence. She has since reported the incident to law enforcement and stands with the other accusers.

Swalwell has denied all allegations. 

The incident comes on the heels of new evidence that Swalwell admitted to having sex with a suspected Chinese spy, who the FBI assessed was likely operating on behalf of China's Ministry of State Security.

Memos describe Christine Fang, known as Fang Fang (FBI codename 'Rusty Thumbs') cultivating Swalwell through sexual encounters, intern referrals into his congressional offices, and campaign contributions routed through American conduits to conceal her status as a prohibited foreign national. Investigators cleared Swalwell of criminal wrongdoing in 2017. Fang was never charged. 

During FBI interviews in 2015 and 2016, Swalwell acknowledged meeting Fang during his initial 2012 congressional campaign and admitted to multiple sexual encounters with her. He confirmed that Fang referred several interns to his campaign and congressional offices, explaining that he treated her referrals as coming from the Asian Pacific Islander American Public Affairs (APAPA) organization.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 10:25