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Pentagon Urged No Resumption Of Strikes As Iran Grew More Effective Tracking US Air Ops: NYT

Zero Hedge -

Pentagon Urged No Resumption Of Strikes As Iran Grew More Effective Tracking US Air Ops: NYT

President Trump had on Monday announced he agreed to pause planned Iran strikes, which were supposedly going to resume Tuesday, because UAE & Saudi Arabia asked him to as they said the sides are getting close to a deal.

However, Pentagon officials have told The New York Times they urged halting of strikes because of intelligence shows Iran has grown more effective at tracking US air operations and strengthening its air defenses, making the potential for significant aerial losses by the US a greater likelihood in any new major campaign in Iran's skies.

via Tasnim

"Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump described that the Arab states requested the delay because "serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond."

But in a fresh report titled "Trump Threatens Iran and Then Pulls Back, All in the Same Day" - The NY Times pushed back with the following:

Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official. Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become "too predictable."

While kinetic operations have been paused since Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, Tehran was apparently treating the diplomatic timeout as a massive engineering and re-arming window. US officials have on several occasions hinted at this reality, as has Trump himself at times.

To complicate any future American target lists, the Iranian military has also reportedly dispersed a massive fleet of new mobile missile launchers across the entire country, completely overhauling their deployment tactics ahead of any potential resumption of US strikes.

In essence, despite the US touting total aerial superiority in the 38-days of initial bombing, Tehran has effectively neutralized the impact of the initial air campaign. If or when the ceasefire officially collapses, Washington could be looking at a heavily upgraded, highly adaptable adversary.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran's Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has this week declared that Iran was "prepared for all scenarios," as cited in state IRIB. 

"The Americans must either submit to diplomacy and our conditions or submit to the power of our missiles," he added.

When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change; however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma. President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight - he can appear 'weak' through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 08:45

Shooters And Motives Revealed In San Diego Mosque Shooting That Killed Three

Zero Hedge -

Shooters And Motives Revealed In San Diego Mosque Shooting That Killed Three

The two young alleged gunmen who descended upon a San Diego Islamic facility on Monday -- killing three men and themselves -- have been identified, along with early indications of their motives. Police sources have told multiple outlets that 17-year-old Cain Clark and 18-year-old Caleb Velasquez -- driven by hate -- scrawled racist themes on their weapons and carried a gas can emblazoned with a Nazi SS sticker. One of them left a suicide note emphasizing "racial pride." 

While school-wrestler Cain Clark's appearance has left some wondering, there's been no reporting of any non-standard gender identity

The attack was carried out on the Islamic Center of San Diego, which is roughly eight miles north of downtown and is home to the county's largest mosque, and Bright Horizon Academy, a K-12 Islamic school. While the shooting began around 11:40 am, one of the shooter's mothers contacted police at 9:42 am. She told them her son was missing, that he was suicidal, and that her firearms and her car were gone. She also reported that he was with a companion, both of them dressed in camouflage clothing. Police tried to track them down using license plate readers, at one point responding to a possible matching plate near a shopping mall. Other officers were dispatched to a high school that one of the alleged shooters attended. 

Police say that, after leaving the Islamic center, the alleged young murderers fired shots at a landscaper two blocks away, with one of the rounds grazing his helmet. He wasn't wounded. Soon after, the two were found dead inside a white BMW another block away from the Islamic center, having apparently died of self-inflicted gunshots. Inside the vehicle, investigators found some type of anti-Islamic writing. In addition, the BMW contained a gasoline can that had a Nazi SS sticker on it, and police say unspecified "hate speech" was written on their firearms. They haven't described the weapons yet.  

The body of one of the shooters lies to the left of the BMW, and a gas can adorned with a Nazi SS symbol sits nearby.  

Clark wrestled for Madison High School, which is only a mile from the Islamic center, but never attended there in person, instead enrolling in the San Diego Unified School District's iHigh Virtual Academy.  He was set to graduate this month. Outside their home, Clark's grandparents told CNN that he had been "a good kid," with the incident leaving them shocked. "We're trying to process this," they said, adding that they were "very sorry for what happened." No biographical details about Velasquez have emerged yet; nor have any photos of him been shared by reliable sources. 

Police have thus far refused to share specifics about the hate speech associated with the slogans on the weapons, the writing in the car and the suicide note. "There was definitely hate rhetoric that was involved," Wah said at a press conference, suggesting that more information may be revealed later. "There was generalized hate rhetoric and speech," but no specific threat to "any facility or any place." 

Police haven't identified the shooters' weapons, but maybe our ZeroHedge commenters can crowd-source a partial answer from this image (Anadolu via Getty Images)

One of three dead men was security guard Amin Abdullah, who's being credited with curtailing the carnage. "I think it’s fair to say his actions were heroic," San Diego Police Chief Scott Wahl told reporters. "Undoubtedly, he saved lives today." He was a father of eight children. An online fundraiser rapidly raised more than $1.2 million and counting. 

Security guard Amin Abdullah was killed, but police credited him with minimizing the casualties (via LaunchGood)

"My community is mourning," said Taha Hassane, the director an imam of the Islamic center. "The religious intolerance and the hate that unfortunately exists in our nation is unprecedented."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 08:15

Futures Fall As Momentum Cracks Grow With Yields And Oil Higher

Zero Hedge -

Futures Fall As Momentum Cracks Grow With Yields And Oil Higher

US equity futures are lower, set for a 3rd drop in a row, as traders waited for futile signs of progress toward a peace deal in the Middle East. and as tech and small cap stocks reacted adversely to higher bond yields around the globe, but nowhere more so than in Japan, where many tenors are trading at record lows, as the wheels have fully come off the clown bus, aka the Bank of Japan. As of 7:30am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.8% as a retreat in tech shares pulled stocks lower in the US and Asia; S&P futures were down 0.4%, putting the benchmark on course for its longest losing streak since March. In premarket trading, semis/memory names remain under pressure; GOOGL and MSFT outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk slipped again as the selloff in memory stocks continued. Financials and Staples are two of the bright spots despite Defensives generally leading Cyclicals. South Korea’s Kospi - ground zero of the global memory momentum bubble - led losses in Asia as  the momentum trade cracks (with foreign investors pulling money for a 9th straight day). Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as media and financial services outperformed: the continent's outperformance may be the market expressing the view that the next rotation is underway. The USD traded near session highs, reversing a modest drop earlier, which helped send 10Y yields to session highs around 4.62%. Oil reversed overnight losses to trade at session highs while. Commodities are mixed after Trump said he is delaying Iranian attacks due to GCC requests to find a deal. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP and Pending Home Sales. Given bond yields, the Goldilocks zone for ADP has narrowed: too high and inflation concerns flare and too low and the narrative shifts to stagflation.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower as Alphabet and Microsoft outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk Corp. slipped as the selloff in memory stocks continued. (Alphabet +0.5, Microsoft +1, Meta -0.3, Amazon -0.7%, Apple -0.6%, Nvidia -0.7%, Tesla -1%).

  • Agilysys (AGYS) is up 15% after the hospitality software company reported its fourth-quarter results.
  • Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
  • XP (XP) falls 5.9% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.
  • Agilysys (AGYS) rises 20% after the hospitality software company posted quarterly results that topped estimates.
  • Amer Sports (AS) rises 4% after it raised full-year guidance and first-quarter results beat estimates, buoyed by demand for Salomon shoes.
  • Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
  • Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) rises 14% after the drug developer gave initial clinical data from a mid-stage trial to treat vascular anomalies. TD Cowen calls the data “best case scenario.”
  • Stubhub (STUB) rises 4% as Guggenheim Securities upgrades to buy from neutral citing upside to 2026 numbers.
  • XP (XP) falls 4% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.

In other corporate news, Clear Street is cutting jobs and replacing its CEO, as the Wall Street brokerage firm pivots after abandoning a plan to go public earlier this year. Google agreed to create an AI cloud business with Blackstone, aiming to compete with companies like CoreWeave in a burgeoning market. A jury rejected Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI betrayed its mission to benefit the public by morphing into a for-profit business, finding that he waited too long to sue the company. Meanwhile, the “Muskonomy” imminently gets a second stock with the SpaceX IPO and that could create problems for Tesla, as explored in the latest Tech Watch column. 

The AI/momentum rally is faltering after powering global equities to record highs in the face of rising bond yields and elevated crude prices. As noted last night, the two-day drop in high beta momentum was the biggest since 2022.

The recent boom in pockets of the market such as semiconductors and non-profitable tech has traders wondering if the next move is buy the dip or sustained rotation into other places. At the same time, lagging sectors such as healthcare are catching up after underperforming over the past few weeks. 

Meanwhile, asset allocators increased their equity exposure to stocks by the most on record to a net 50% overweight from 13% last month, and are now most overweight stocks since January 2022, Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows. The most crowded trade, referenced by 73% of respondents, is long semiconductors, followed by long Mag-7 (14%) and long oil (6%). 

JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk expects any pullback to be short-lived, dips will likely be bought on the strength in macro and micro, the return of retail investors, the perceived restart of corporate buybacks, and a generally positive take on impending market catalysts.

“The performance of the semis has been parabolic, so it’s not surprising there’s some profit-taking,” said Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish. “Maybe there is also an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI.”

Hedging costs appear to be picking up, with normalized skews on the major indexes increasing from last week’s trough, which saw Nasdaq 100 sentiment the most bullish in more than a year.

Speaking of AI, so far the only tangible benefit is scapegoating it for mass layoffs: the recent trend of job cuts on the back of "AI efficiencies" continues to make headlines. Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new jobs related to AI, according to an internal memo, part of a broad corporate restructuring that includes planned staff reductions later this week. Standard Chartered said it would cut corporate functions roles by more than 15% by 2030 and scale practical uses of AI to streamline processes.

And then there is the war in iran. “Investors are desperate for the Middle East conflict to end as that should, in theory, help to bring down oil prices, dampen talk of rate hikes, and switch the conversation back to economic growth,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. “For now, the conflict rumbles on and investors remain slightly cautious.”

After oil-driven inflation drove bond yields steadily higher since the start of the war in the Middle East, traders are now zeroing in on 5.5% as the next key level for 30-year Treasuries, according to Citigroup Inc. strategist Jim McCormick.

“I see markets underpricing the risk of a Fed rate hike starting this year,” he said. Swap traders are currently leaning toward a 25 basis point increase in December, with a move fully priced for March next year.

Nicolas Bickel, group head of investment for private banking at Edmond de Rothschild, told Bloomberg TV he wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year US yields at 5%. The rate rose three basis points to 4.62% on Tuesday. “If we have higher inflation and growth stays steady, it will not be an issue,” he said.

In political news, Trump announced his administration is adding more than 600 generic medications to its direct-to-consumer drug sales website TrumpRx alongside billionaire Mark Cuban. The SEC is poised to roll out a plan for trading digital versions of securities that could reshape the landscape of the American stock market as it continues to loosen the rules for free-wheeling crypto markets. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is thus far avoiding declines and is up by 0.7%, led by media, financial services and retail stocks. Most sectors advance, with the basic resources subindex the only significant decliner. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Evolution gains as much as 13%, the most since Oct. 2024, after the Swedish online gambling company approved a €2 billion share buyback program. Analysts say the size of the buyback program is a welcome signal of confidence
  • IG Group shares rise as much as 9.8% to a new high after first-quarter revenue beat analysts’ forecasts and the online trading company lifted its full-year guidance
  • Intrum gains as much as 18% after UBS upgraded the Swedish credit services group to buy from neutral, saying the announcement of a fully-underwritten capital increase is a “clear inflection point for the equity story”
  • Lagercrantz gains as much as 8.5% to a record high after the Swedish industrial group reported earnings ahead of estimates. DNB Carnegie describes the update as very solid, citing a high pace of acquisitions during the year
  • Currys shares gain as much as 12% after a trading update and are now in positive territory for the year. Analysts welcomed a third consecutive upgrade to pretax profit guidance
  • Hansa Biopharma gains as much as 30% after the company sold the exclusive development and commercialization rights to Idefirix in the EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland and the Middle East and North Africa regions
  • Vallourec falls as much as 11%, the most since July 2024, after ArcelorMittal sold shares in the French tubular solutions company at a discount. Morgan Stanley calls the news a surprise
  • Grieg Seafood falls as much as 8.1%, the most in a month, after the Norwegian fisheries firm posted weak results and trimmed full-year forecasts, which analysts expect will cause consensus estimates to be slashed
  • Boxer declined as much as 5.8% after Pick n Pay Stores raised 4.7 billion rand by selling 57.3 million ordinary shares of the retailer — representing 12.5% of Boxer’s total issued shares — through an accelerated bookbuild offering
  • Forterra shares slip as much as 7.9% to the lowest since November 2023 after the UK brickmaker reported soft trading and gave cautious commentary for FY26
  • Nanobiotix shares drop as much as 9.5%, falling for a third day after hitting a record last week. That trimmed the French biotechnology company’s rally since the FDA accepted a streamlined trial design in early May for its experimental cancer drug

Asian stocks dropped for a third session as a lack of clarity over an Iran peace deal and elevated global bond yields weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, heading for its longest losing streak since March. South Korea’s Kospi Index was one of the worst performers, tumbling more than 3% as rising bond yields dulled the appeal of growth stocks like chipmakers. Risk appetite remained muted even after President Donald Trump said he was holding off on fresh strikes on Iran, as investors focused on elevated oil prices that have fanned inflation concerns. Those worries are keeping bond yields higher for longer, offsetting optimism over the benefits of the artificial intelligence boom. “Global bond yields moving higher are sending a clear reality check: sustained high energy prices could bring tighter monetary conditions sooner rather than later,” according to Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. 

Over the past five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen in 16 of the 19 weeks when the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 20 basis points or more, losing an average 1.6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Last week fit that pattern. Indonesian shares were on track for a sixth session of declines as speculation mounted that the government will centralize commodity exports to control capital flows and shore up a plunging currency. Meanwhile, benchmarks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Australia rose. Chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge.  In Japan, the broader benchmark Topix index rebounded, led by banks after stronger-than-expected GDP data fueled speculation the central bank could raise interest rates again.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3%, while the Aussie is the underperformer after RBA minutes.

In rates, Treasuries are weaker with 10-year yields up two basis points following similar price action in bunds while gilts outperform after lower-than-forecast UK April jobs figures.  US 10-year yield near 4.61% (vs session high 4.62%) underperforms UK counterpart by almost 5bp; US 30-year near 5.15% is also about 1bp off day’s high. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across a slightly flatter curve; Fed-OIS contracts price in around 16 basis points of tightening by year-end and fully price in a hike by the March policy meeting. UK bonds are outperforming in Europe after soft labour market data. Ten-year gilt yields are down four basis points and bets on Bank of England rate hikes have been pulled back. G dollar issuance slate includes five deals already; Monday saw Merck’s $6 billion bond sale lead eight borrowers pricing a combined $12.2 billion of new debt. Kennametal, Mobility Global and Xylem are candidates for Tuesday after holding market exercises Monday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday). Focal points of US session include comments by Fed Governor Waller at 8am New York time and potential for another large corporate new-issue calendar. 

In commodities, oil prices have reversed overnight losses with Brent sitting a little above $110 after Trump said he’d called off a strike on Iran following an appeal by Persian Gulf allies

Economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and April pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (8am) and Paulson (7pm).

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.3%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.4%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
  • DAX +1.3%
  • CAC 40 +0.9%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.61%
  • VIX +0.3 points at 18.15
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1203.27
  • euro -0.3% at $1.1616
  • WTI crude -1.1% at $107.5/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • President Trump said he would hold off on a planned U.S. attack on Iran at the request of Gulf leaders to make room for negotiations with Tehran over a prospective deal to end the war. The White House didn’t provide additional details about the planned attack. Several Gulf officials from some of the countries Trump mentioned said they were not aware of the imminent plan to attack Iran he described. WSJ
  • Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days: Truth Social
  • US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
  • Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping as the Iran war offers Russia an opportunity to deepen energy links with China. Putin and Xi are due to meet tomorrow. BBG
  • Soaring borrowing costs could trigger a “correction” in the stock market, highlighting a growing disconnect between exuberant equities and bonds battered by worries over high inflation. FT
  • Financial market turbulence could force the Bank of Japan to go slow on the unwinding of its massive debt holdings, giving anxious bond investors some relief as surging yields lay bare worsening fiscal strains and inflation pressures. RTRS
  • Japan’s economy grew much faster than expected at the start of the year, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes, though the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the Middle East conflict. Japan's economy grew 2.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, exceeding economists' forecast for a 1.7% increase. BBG
  • Ukraine’s military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge. WSJ
  • The SEC is set to roll out a plan for trading tokenized versions of stocks on crypto platforms, people familiar said. The framework has raised concerns about market fragmentation and investor protection. BBG
  • Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new AI-related roles as part of a broader restructuring that includes planned staff cuts later this week. The company is also pursuing a $200 billion data center in rural Louisiana. BBG
  • Google and Blackstone will form an AI cloud JV, backed by an initial $5 billion equity commitment from the PE firm. BBG
  • US President Trump announced that the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times and that over 600 generics are to be added to TrumpRx.

Iran Headlines

  • US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
  • US President Trump said 'hopefully, maybe forever' regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
  • US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
  • US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
  • Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
  • US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
  • Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran's forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader's military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran's armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
  • Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon's warning that Iran is strengthening its air defences, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
  • Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of "unusual silence" from global maritime and insurance authorities.
  • Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict. Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo. New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year's wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict.
  • Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo.
  • New Zealand's Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.
  • Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.7%).
  • Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q1) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.3%, Low. 0.4%, High. 2.9%).
  • Japanese Industrial Production MoM Final (Mar) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -2.0%).
  • Japanese Industrial Production YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.4% (Prev. 0.4%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade on the front foot, seemingly benefiting from Trump’s de-escalatory post. Trump announced that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. However, he stated that they will be prepared to strike on a moment’s notice. The DAX 40 (+1.5%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE MIB (+0.2%) lags. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Media tops the sector pile, seemingly benefiting from continued upside in Publicis. Financial Services and Industrial Goods & Services round out the top 3 sectors. At the bottom of the pile lies Basic Resources (as precious metals pare Monday’s gains) and Chemicals. US equity futures print modest declines, ES -0.5%. Despite today's modest fixed bid, yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on the tech-heavy NQ (-0.8%). Despite the relative underperformance vs Europe, analysts see this as short-term due to Europe’s lack of IT sector, which has held the region back compared to South Korea and the US

Top European News

  • UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%, Low. 4.7%, High. 5.1%). ONS: "Latest figures suggest the labour market remains soft, with vacancies at their lowest level in five years and unemployment higher than a year ago. The number of payroll employees continued to fall in the three months to March, while regular wage growth slowed further."
  • UK Employment Change (Mar) 148K vs. Exp. 107K (Prev. 25K, Low. 40K, High. 240K).
  • UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%, Low. 3.4%, High. 3.7%).

FX

  • USD benefits from underperformance in peers, despite crude benchmarks being lower and the yield environment being more constructive. DXY is higher by three-tenths after bouncing off its 50DMA at 99.00. The session ahead is light, and sees remarks from Fed doves Waller and Paulson, alongside ADP weekly payrolls.
  • GBP is a little lower against the Buck and Euro as technical-driven outperformance on Monday is reversed. Focus recently has been on politics (Manchester Mayor Burnham said that changing the Fiscal rules was not an option), and on a downbeat UK jobs report. Cable currently resides at the bottom end of a 1.3387 to 1.3437 range.
  • USD/JPY topped Monday’s high (159.08), bringing intervention fears back in focus. USD/JPY has been edging higher throughout the last ten sessions amid reports of a supplementary budget and oil remaining high, with Japan a net importer.
  • AUD is the G10 laggard, seemingly looking to price in the weak Chinese data on Monday as Monday’s risk-induced rally pares. Alongside the fading of the risk environment, RBA minutes overnight indicated a wait-and-see approach among members that voted for a hike, reinforcing market pricing of just c. 5bps of tightening for June 16th’s meeting. AUD/USD resumes its slide from 0.7200 on Friday, looks now to 0.7100, around 10-15 pips below.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are firmer by around 6 ticks and currently trade at the mid-point of a 109-03 to 109-11+ range. Action ultimately dictated by Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iran, after several Gulf countries suggested that serious talks were taking place. Nonetheless, risks remain, as Trump suggested that the US is prepared to launch a full-scale assault on Iran at a moment’s notice if an acceptable deal is not reached. Geopolitics aside, focus will be on the weekly ADP Employment Change metrics and Pending Home Sales; Fed speak via Waller is also due.
  • From a yield perspective, US yields have eased a touch from the prior day’s peaks; the 10yr now holds around 4.60% (vs Monday’s peak at 4.63%). Nonetheless, the yield still resides beyond the key 4.50% mark, where some analysts have speculated a decisive breach above this point could see the yield begin to spiral.
  • Gilts are outperforming vs peers, and are currently firmer by c. 80 ticks, trading with an 86.14 to 86.40 range. A trifecta of factors driving the action today: a) lower energy prices, b) Manchester Mayor Burnham (touted to challenge for PM) saying that changing fiscal rules would not be an option and c) a downbeat UK jobs report.
  • Bunds are firmer by around 15 ticks, and hold within a 124.18 to 124.41 range. EU-specific newsflow has been light this morning, with the German benchmark ultimately moving alongside peers. Focus later will be on some ECB speak, but perhaps more pertinently, attention will be on the EU’s meeting related to US tariffs. The main sticking point is Trump. Officials are working on developing clauses to protect the EU, through “Trump Proofing”: a) expires once Trump’s presidential term ends, b) deal suspends if Greenland is threatened, c) allows the EU to restore tariffs if there are significant domestic market disruptions. Should officials reach an agreement, documents will be sent for a full vote in the European Parliament by June.
  • Citi strategists says 5.5% may be the next key level for 30yr US Treasury yields after they rose to the highest since 2007.
  • Germany sells EUR 3.844bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.32x (prev. 1.04x), average yield 2.85% (prev. 2.74%), retention 23.12% (prev. 20.9%).

Commodities

  • The main update was US President Trump delaying the planned Iran attack after requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, as serious talks are taking place. However, they remain ready to strike if an acceptable deal is not reached. Sources continue to outline that some form of military action remains likely, while explosions have been heard in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with transit halted overnight. See the 08:29BST update for more.
  • WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday amid the pullback seen after US President Trump called off an attack on Iran that was planned for Tuesday following the request by Gulf nations. WTI Jul resides in a USD 102.12-104/bbl range, and Brent Jul in a USD 109.01-110.77/bbl range – both off worst levels. Dutch TTF trimmed earlier downside and trades firmer by ~1% at the time of writing, north of EUR 50/MWh. Analysts at ING, on US-Iran, said “One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted.”
  • In terms of metals, spot gold and silver post losses as the DXY remains underpinned by inflation concerns emanating from elevated oil prices. Spot gold trades closer to the bottom of a USD 4,531-4,589.58/oz range after briefly topping yesterday’s USD 4,584.37/oz peak. Spot silver resides in a USD 75.72-78.89/bbl. Base metals are on a softer footing amid the inflationary concerns from elevated energy prices. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,485.98- 13,646.68/t range at the time of writing.
  • Australian PM Albanese said Australia secured over 600k barrels of jet fuel and that three cargoes of jet fuel from China are expected to arrive from early June.
  • Angola reportedly to cut July crude exports to 889k bpd.
  • The EU is set to unveil an action plan to bolster fertiliser supplies and mitigate food price inflation, the FT reported citing draft proposals.

Central Banks

  • RBA Minutes from the May meeting stated the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike and that a hike would provide space to see how the Gulf conflict develops, as well as the response of households and businesses. Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or to keep rates at 4.1%, while it was stated that for future decisions, the board agreed monetary policy could not alter the near-term trajectory of inflation, and also agreed Australian economic growth is likely to be below potential for some time. Furthermore, the board will do what is considered necessary to meet inflation and employment mandates, while the majority emphasised that core inflation was projected above target for an extended period.
  • RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said risk of inflation expectations drifting higher is elevated, and the Middle East conflict is a clear external shock, adding that the recent rise in oil prices is particularly challenging to navigate.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller in Moderated Discussion
  • 7:00 pm: United States Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My mini world tour continues, and it's another rare ocean view. This time in Lisbon where I'm passing through for a conference. It really is a beautiful city. Well the parts that I've seen on my travels.  

As I watch the early morning waves crash gently into the harbor, markets have had a mixed 24 hours, with Trump’s post that he called off planned new strikes against Iran helping the S&P 500 (-0.07%) erase most of its intra-day decline towards the end of the session, while 10yr Treasury yields stabilised after touching their highest level in over a year at 4.63%. Brent crude also retreated from two-week highs but is still trading close to $110/bbl this morning and little changed from the end of last week. And the broader market mood is on the cautious side this morning, with US equity futures and most Asian markets losing ground.

We are now exactly six weeks into the combined truce and ceasefire, following 5.5 weeks of strikes and attacks. While my base case is that the absence of kinetic activity would not have persisted this long without US intent to secure a deal, the lack of an agreement—despite several false dawns— remains a source of nervousness.

In terms of the latest from the Middle East, the last major swing came late in yesterday’s US session as Trump claimed that he had called off an attack against Iran that has been scheduled for today after an appeal by leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The news helped remove some of the risk premium that had built up over the course of yesterday, even though in the same post Trump also said that he ordered the US military to be ready for “a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”. Later on, Trump said that he was asked to put off new strikes “for two or three days” as Gulf allies thought “they are getting very close to making a deal”, while he also stressed the aim of “no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran”.

Following Trump’s comments, Brent crude is trading -2.03% lower this morning at $109.84/bbl as I type. Shortly before Trump’s post it had traded as high as $112.72, the highest intra-day level in almost two weeks. Oil prices whipsawed earlier yesterday alongside conflicting headlines around the prospects for further strikes. First, came a positive reaction after Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the US had proposed a temporary waiver on oil sanctions. So that led Brent to fall below $107/bbl as investors latched onto signs of progress in the US-Iran discussions. But more negative headlines then began to come through before Trump’s post. For instance, Tasnim also reported a source who said that Tehran felt the US had “excessive demands and unrealistic positions”. And on the US side, Axios cited a senior US official who said the White House didn’t think Iran’s updated proposal was sufficient for a deal.

In Asia this morning, markets are on the softer side, with tech stocks not helping the mood. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-4.12%) stands out as the largest underperformer, having fallen as much as -5.0% earlier in the session. Other moves are more more muted with the Nikkei (-0.42%) and the CSI (-0.49%) only slightly lower and with the Shanghai Composite flat. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.93%) is defying the regional trend, alongside the Hang Seng (+0.39%). S&P 500 (-0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) futures are giving back some of the late recovery from last night.

The S&P 500 (-0.07%) ended the day with a marginal decline, with Trump’s post helping it recover from -0.75% down an hour before the close. After its sharp decline last Friday, the S&P still posted its worst two-day performance since March, albeit only down -1.31% in that period from Thursday’s record high. Tech stocks took a larger hit, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.64%) and the NASDAQ (-0.51%) seeing a more material pullback. But the broader mood was more positive, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 rising by +0.58%.

US Treasuries also saw a varied performance, with 2yr (-2.6bps to 4.05%) and 10yr yields (-0.6bps to 4.59%) erasing their intra-day increases, but 30yr yields (+0.7bps) inching up to a new post-2007 high of 5.12%. Aside from oil, a rise in yields had been supported by positive data yesterday, which suggested the US economy had continued its resilience into May. Indeed, the NY Fed’s services business activity hit a 16-month high of -5.8, whilst the NAHB’s housing market index was up to 37 (vs. 34 expected). 10yr Treasury yields are around +1.4bps higher again overnight trading at 4.60%.

Over in Europe however, markets put in a relatively stronger performance, with bonds and equities both rebounding. So 10yr bund yields (-1.9bps) came down to 3.15%, after closing at a post-2011 high on Friday, whilst OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) fell back as well. On top of that, investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate hikes, with 73bps priced by the December meeting, down -2.1bps on the previous day. And in turn, the prospect of fewer rate cuts helped to support equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (+0.54%) paring back its slump on Friday.

Here in the UK, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, which came as a spokeperson for Greater Manchester Andy Burnham ruled out changing the government’s fiscal rules if he gained power. Moreover, the spokesperson also ruled out exempting defence spending from the rules, which is something Burnham had previously floated. So that reassured investors who’d been worried that Burnham might lead to higher gilt issuance, particularly after his comments last year about being “in hock” to the bond markets. In turn, that led to a clear rally, with 10yr gilt yields (-7.4bps) closing at 5.10%, down from their post-2008 high on Friday. Moreover, other UK assets outperformed, with the FTSE 100 (+1.26%) advancing, whilst the pound strengthened +0.81% against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, incumbent PM Starmer continued to reject suggestions he’d stand down if Burnham won the by-election, reiterating to broadcasters that “I’m not going to walk away”.

Early morning data has showed that Japan's economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 (compared to the +1.7% anticipated), driven by enhanced consumption and robust exports, thereby bolstering the argument for additional interest rate hikes by the BOJ. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The report indicates that the economy gained momentum during the January-March period, prior to the full effects of the war in Iran becoming apparent.

Despite the bullish growth figures, the Japanese yen has weakened slightly against the dollar following the announcement. Overnight BoJ swaps remain relatively stable, indicating around a 77% probability that the central bank will increase rates in June. Yields on 10-year JGBs have risen by +4.5bps, trading at 2.76%, marking a fresh multi-decade high as we go to print.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include UK unemployment for March, Canada’s CPI for April, and US pending home sales for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller and Paulson, the ECB’s Villeroy, Lane and Makhlouf, and the BoE’s Breeden.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:58

Standard Chartered To Replace "Lower-Value Human Capital" With AI As Meta Layoff D-Day Nears

Zero Hedge -

Standard Chartered To Replace "Lower-Value Human Capital" With AI As Meta Layoff D-Day Nears

The white-collar job-loss apocalypse, accelerated by AI, is increasingly concentrated in repetitive, data-intensive, and digitally native roles, with tech firms announcing layoffs one after another.

While 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is Wednesday morning, the London-headquartered international bank Standard Chartered announced on Tuesday plans to cut 15% of its corporate roles (or about 7800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

STAN also raised its profitability targets, aiming for a 15% return on tangible equity by 2028 and roughly 18% by 2030.

"Drive productivity improvements to raise income per employee by ~20 percent by 2028, aided by a reduction in corporate functions roles of >15 percent by 2030," STAN wrote in a press release.

STAN CEO Bill Winters stated in the release, "We are investing in the capabilities that will compound our competitive advantages and drive sustainable growth and higher quality returns over time, with clear targets in place."

To achieve this, Winters explained: "We are scaling practical uses of automation, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence to streamline processes, improve decision-making and enhance both client service and internal efficiency."

During the earnings call, Winters provided more color on these plans, insisting, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."

Here is Goldman analyst Gaelle Jarrousse's first take on STAN's move to reduce headcount to improve higher income per employee and returns:

Let's start with STANDARD CHARTERED CMD where the key punch line is Bill Winters mentioning that 'I can tell you in 2030, if we're generating 18%, I'm not going to be doing high fives with the team. I don't think that that's the potential of this bank.

But I'm not allowed to say that because the slide says 18% by around 18% by 2030.' It highlights the level of conservatism baked in the targets esp in the 57% Cost Income ratio.

The >15% ROTE target for 2028 (assuming 5-7% top line growth vs consensus at 5% and high teens EPS growth vs consensus at 18%) won't lead to earnings upgrades given consensus is at 15%.

However the 18% ROTE target for 2030 gives enough sustained growth and validates the thesis of a lasting growth story. There are not many banks offering c.20% EPS growth until 2030 with a clear narrative (and there not many banks giving you access to the Asian wealth story) and the multiple of STAN does not reflect that – REMEMBER the chart of EPS growth vs PE of last Friday, STAN screened very well on that, ie more re-rating is needed given the growth offered and the right type of growth, ie wealth deserving a higher multiple. STAY LONG.

Beyond STAN, 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is tomorrow morning, and the Facebook and Instagram owner is expected to slash 10% of its global headcount, or about 8,000 employees, in the initial round as it swaps headcount for GPUs.

Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for "ChatGPT" and "layoffs" ...

Layoffs.fyi, a website tracking tech job cuts worldwide, reported that 73,212 employees have lost their jobs so far this year. For all of 2024, the figure was 153,000.

Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely alarming for white-collar America, where many are saddled with student and credit card debt.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:45

BBC's Former News Director Says Trans-Bias & 'Progressive Madness' Drove Her Out

Zero Hedge -

BBC's Former News Director Says Trans-Bias & 'Progressive Madness' Drove Her Out

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The BBC’s grip on impartiality continues to slip as one of its former top news executives publicly confirmed what critics have long argued: activist capture from within has turned the state broadcaster into a vehicle for narrow ideological agendas.

Fran Unsworth, director of BBC News from 2018 to 2022, has broken her silence, claiming she was effectively driven out by trans activists and the “progressive madness” dominating the corporation.

In a candid interview, she described an environment of bullying where editors avoided critical reporting on trans issues for fear of attacks from their own colleagues.

“Just dealing with the progressive editorial issues and the bullying around them all. It was incredibly difficult,” Unsworth said. She added that the atmosphere extended beyond trans topics, with staff no-platforming dissenting views and pushing “safe spaces” over open debate.

Unsworth’s remarks paint a picture of a newsroom where challenging the prevailing narrative on ‘culture war’ issues carried professional risks. Programme editors reportedly steered clear of stories that questioned aspects of the trans agenda, wary of backlash from activist-aligned staff.

This self-censorship contributed to what a leaked internal memo later described as “effective censorship” on the topic.

Her departure was hastened by the constant pressure. “I would actually say it drove me out,” she stated, highlighting how the bullying around “progressive editorial issues” made her position untenable.

This echoes earlier revelations about the BBC’s hiring practices. In 2024, the broadcaster made clear it would not hire candidates dismissive of diversity and inclusion policies, effectively screening out those skeptical of the dominant ideology.

Recruiters were instructed to reject anyone showing a lack of enthusiasm for these topics, ensuring ideological conformity from the outset.

Unsworth’s admission also lands amid ongoing scandals over the BBC’s handling of gender issues, including accusations of harming children through biased children’s programming.

In late 2025, over 650 families accused the BBC of harming children via a “constant drip-feed” of pro-trans material in shows and dramas. Parents detailed examples like Hey Duggee using “they/them” pronouns for a character aimed at five-year-olds, episodes of Doctors and Casualty promoting child transition narratives, and documentaries criticized for downplaying detransition regrets.

One parent group spokesman warned: “The constant stream of propaganda about gender and trans activism the BBC has transmitted has played a significant role in creating a dangerous culture for children.” They pointed to narratives linking gender questioning directly to suicide, which they said pressured families and ignored safeguarding concerns.

The BBC has defended its output by citing updates to style guides and efforts to reflect developments like court rulings on biological sex, but trust continues to erode.

The BBC’s obsession with identity politics has also produced content disconnected from everyday reality. A 2025 DEI training video on “microaggressions” went viral for its over-the-top portrayals of white colleagues as bumbling racists, complete with awkward accents and forced celebrations. Critics noted that no one in the real world behaves this way, highlighting the corporation’s bubble of performative wokeness.

Such materials reinforce the sense that the BBC operates in an alternate universe, more focused on enforcing sensitivity hierarchies than delivering impartial news or entertainment.

Unsworth’s exit and the surrounding controversies arrive as the BBC faces broader challenges, including declining audiences, falling trust, and questions over its future under new leadership. Leaked documents and parental complaints have repeatedly shown how activist influence skewed coverage, sidelining biological reality and dissenting voices in favor of Stonewall-aligned perspectives.

The pattern is clear: a public broadcaster funded by taxpayers has allowed internal cliques to dictate editorial direction, from hiring litmus tests to children’s shows pushing contested ideologies. This not only undermines impartiality but risks real-world harm by shaping public discourse—and young minds—around contested claims rather than evidence and balance.

It all underscores a pattern of institutional bias that prioritizes activist demands over journalistic balance and public trust.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 07:20

NY MTA, LIRR Unions Reach 'Fair Deal' To End Strike After Commuter Chaos Grips NYC

Zero Hedge -

NY MTA, LIRR Unions Reach 'Fair Deal' To End Strike After Commuter Chaos Grips NYC

New York's MTA reached a tentative labor deal with five Long Island Rail Road unions, ending the first LIRR strike in more than 30 years. Roughly 3,500 workers walked off the job Saturday, sparking commuter chaos for several hundred thousand people who heavily rely on the train service.

"Tonight, the @MTA reached a fair deal with the five LIRR unions that delivers raises for workers while protecting riders and taxpayers," Governor Kathy Hochul wrote on X late Monday.

The good news is that LIRR service will resume at noon today. However, for the 300,000 people who rely on the service to get to work this morning, the disruption still appears to be ongoing.

LIRR confirmed that service will remain disrupted this morning because there is not enough time to get crews into position to run trains.

The lefty union behind the commuter chaos is the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, which stated on X overnight, "The coalition of five labor unions, including BLET, today ended their 3-day strike at Long Island Rail Road after coming to terms on a tentative contract."

Related coverage:

Bloomberg noted, "The unions were seeking a 5% boost, or close to it, while the MTA offered close to 4.5% along with ways to find savings to help pay for the higher raise."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:55

10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My Taco Tuesday morning train strike Lyft reads:

• Words That Mattered: Fed Chair Jay Powell: A close reading of Powell’s most consequential lines, dated and re-contextualized. Excellent reference for the next FOMC parse. (Stay-at-Home Macro)

• How Trump plans to keep tariffs at the center of his economic policy despite stinging court losses: The legal setbacks haven’t shifted the strategy — only the legal authorities being invoked. Tariff policy as a will-to-power exercise. (The Conversation) see also Trump’s Accounts Investment Fund for Babies May Shortchange Them. Here’s a Better Approach.: Barron’s on the so-called MAGA baby accounts and why a $1,000 seed wrapped in fee-heavy mechanics will likely leave kids worse off than a boring old custodial Roth. (Barron’s)

• Under one roof: housing and inflation expectations. Using household surveys for the United States, we find that people tend to overweight their expectations about house prices when thinking about inflation with a coefficient of 25%–45%, significantly above the weight of house prices in the inflation index. Should central banks care about this? The short answer is yes. The Bank of England’s staff blog on how the price of the place you live shapes the inflation you expect. A nice empirical piece for anyone tired of the “inflation is dead” / “inflation is back” pendulum. (Bank Underground)

• A Personal Finance Star on What Millennials Need From Their Boomer Parents: Ramit Sethi in NYT Magazine on the great wealth transfer’s awkward middle act — kids don’t need another inheritance lecture, they need the actual numbers and a willingness to talk before the funeral. (New York Times)

• Kushner Disappoints Mideast Clients Who Spent Millions Seeking Sway: Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE backed Affinity Partners in hopes of gaining White House influence and investment returns. The US war with Iran that they opposed has shown the constraints of that approach. (Bloomberg free)

• CBS Cancels Itself, Not Just Colbert: What I didn’t anticipate was that the foundation of Mr. Colbert’s success was something new to late night: hard-core, point-of-view political comedy. He had developed it while contributing to “The Daily Show” on Comedy Central. A broadcast network, steeped in the traditional “both sides” style of Johnny Carson, was going to expect him to drop that as well as the character. The NYT opinion page on a network deciding it would rather not have an audience than have one with opinions. A useful case study in what happens when corporate parents start managing for the regulator, not the viewer. (New York Times)

• Your iPhone Gets Stolen. Then the Hacking Begins: Wired on the international crews who lift iPhones in the West and then phish the owners overseas to unlock iCloud. The hardware was never the real prize. (Wall Street Journal)

• The surprisingly strong case for feeling great about your coffee habit: Another week, another coffee-is-actually-fine review. The effect sizes are real, the mechanism is still hand-wavy. Drink up. (Vox)

• Attenborough at 100 — A Nature Documentary Archive: Sir David Attenborough just turned 100. In recognition of his brilliant career and life, here’s everything he’s ever worked on, in one place. Nearly 5,000 episodes across 90 series — from Zoo Quest in 1954 to Secret Garden in 2026. Search by animal, habitat, location, natural phenomenon, or theme to find exactly the episode you’re looking for.  A loving fan-built archive of David Attenborough’s seven decades of nature programming, organized for browsing. The closest thing to a centralized index of a body of work that quietly shaped how the world sees wildlife. David Attenborough’s life’s work, searchable. (Attenborough at 100)

• How Nicki Minaj Became Trump’s ‘No. 1 Fan’: The WSJ on the unlikely Minaj–Trump alliance and what it says about celebrity-political brand alignment in 2026. Less about the policy than about the audience each side thinks it’s buying. The rap superstar is throwing her weight behind the White House agenda after being courted by Trump’s 29-year-old celebrity whisperer (Wall Street Journal)

Video of the day: How Concerned Should Boeing and Airbus Be About the New Flying V?

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Sheila Bair, former Chairperson of FDIC from 2006-11. She helped steer the agency through worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Her new book is aimed at young adults and teenagers, titled “How Not to Lose a Million Dollars”

Stocks are cheaper, but their prices are higher

Source: Mike WIlson via Sam Ro

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

International Energy Agency Is Wrong To Forecast Coal's Demise

Zero Hedge -

International Energy Agency Is Wrong To Forecast Coal's Demise

Authored by Tom Harris via The Epoch Times,

Activists would have us believe that coal is a dying energy source. But, thankfully for American coal states such as West Virginia and the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia—all of which use millions of tonnes of coal every year to generate electricity—that is not even remotely true.

However, the world is burning more coal now than ever, reaching a record 8.85 billion metric tonnes annual consumption by the end of 2025. Since 2020, annual coal consumption has increased by 1.40 billion tonnes.

Most of this has come from China, of course, which makes up about 55 percent of global coal consumption (the United States makes up about 5 percent of global consumption). Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a decline in demand over the next five years, The Kobeissi Letter more realistically predicts that demand will continue to rise, and points out that “past forecasts of peak coal demand have repeatedly proven wrong.”

A graph on the IEA’s website that illustrates coal consumption (in metric tonnes, Mt) from 2000 to 2022, shows estimates for 2024 to 2026 that seem improbable.

Regardless, the IEA writes that increased demand for renewables is the primary cause for the estimated decline in coal consumption, and that “Global coal demand is expected to effectively plateau over the coming years, showing a very gradual decline through to 2030.” However, they also write that coal use is expected to increase in India by about 3 percent per year and in Southeast Asia by about 4 percent per year up to 2030.

In reality, we can’t expect China to slow its coal production anytime soon. Currently consuming about 3 billion tonnes annually, they will clearly dominate global trends in coal consumption in the years to come. Although the IEA also expects a slow decline in coal consumption in China over the next five years, with the gradual but marked decline of climate change alarmism worldwide and China’s ambition to expand its economy, this prediction doesn’t seem to hold much credibility either.

As The Kobeissi Letter states, coal remains in high demand, and the pipe dream of climate activists to kill coal doesn’t account for the security and convenience that this energy supply affords us. Like nuclear electricity—another power source that is vital to providing electricity for large portions of the world—the fuel for coal-fired power generation can be stored right on a power plant’s site for long periods of time, providing stable energy for society. We especially need coal during deep freezes because natural gas can falter in extreme cold due to “just-in-time” pipeline delivery. Gas flows can slow or freeze entirely, as seen in winter storms Uri (2021) and Elliott (2022), leaving grids vulnerable. And, not surprisingly, in each of these storms, wind and solar delivered very little, and sometimes no power at all, causing millions to lose electricity and causing hundreds of deaths from the cold.

CO2 Coalition energy expert Dick Storm says that “coal is indispensable” and that it is “the lowest cost proven source of primary energy for electricity generation ever in history.” The Canadian province of Ontario, where I live, proved this case well. In 2002, coal provided about 25 percent of the province’s power, and we enjoyed very low electricity rates. But in 2005, then-Premier Dalton McGuinty held a news conference and, pointing to the pile of coal beside him, said it was “old technology” and that, to save the climate and protect the air, Ontario would phase out all coal-fired electricity generation. This made no sense in light of the facts:

1. Coal is not a technology. It is a resource, and the degree to which it causes pollution when burned depends on the technology used to burn it. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from a coal plant is unquestionably costly, difficult, and of course, unnecessary. Reducing real pollution is often well worth the price and far easier to accomplish with a coal station by using the latest pollution control technology.

2. Seen in a global context, Ontario’s emissions are trivial—one-quarter of Canada’s 1.6 percent of global emissions. So, no matter what one believes about the causes of climate change, McGuinty’s announcement and the province’s painful reduction to 0 percent coal-fired power were merely virtue signalling and showmanship. It had no impact on climate whatsoever.

It did, however, have a huge impact on consumer electricity rates, which, depending on the year, doubled or even tripled as coal was replaced with more expensive power, including a massive expansion of industrial wind turbines. Of course, soaring power rates are politically problematic, so the government decided to hide the increase in the tax base, and today’s rates are merely 50 percent higher than those in 2002. But we all eventually pay for this massive increase, just not directly on our power bill.

Renewable energy has only been able to survive thus far because it is heavily subsidized by tax dollars. These subsidies have, unfortunately, caused coal-fired power stations to be less profitable to operate, by comparison, compounded by the fact that regulations have crippled the industry. It is important to increase our expansion of coal plants, Storm tells us. 800,000 megawatts of new power generation, the equivalent of 80 New York cities, will be needed in the United States in the next 25 years to keep up with demand. This is simply not possible with renewable energy, and although nuclear and other conventional power will be significant players in this, coal will remain a steady, reliable power source to provide us with these vast amounts of power.

Rather than phase out coal, Saskatchewan should build more plants. Since Alberta phased out this important energy source, it will soon come knocking again begging for more power from Saskatchewan’s black gold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 06:30

"Answering The Call": Ford Motor Eyes WWII-Style Production Push For Trump's War Economy

Zero Hedge -

"Answering The Call": Ford Motor Eyes WWII-Style Production Push For Trump's War Economy

One month after we reported that the Trump administration was in talks with U.S. manufacturers about converting idle civilian industrial capacity into weapons production, as conflicts across Eurasia deplete critical weapons stockpiles, Ford Motor signaled Monday morning that it is prepared to support a Western defense-industrial mobilization.

Much like during World War II, Ford said it is exploring how its commercial vehicles and related technologies could help governments in North America and Europe quickly build up their defense in the most cost-effective way. 

"Traditional, purpose-built military hardware takes years to develop and costs billions. By using commercial, off-the-shelf solutions from Ford, governments can access world-class technology at a fraction of the time and cost," Ford wrote in a press release.

Ford said its trucks, such as the F-Series and Ranger, along with technologies like Pro Power Onboard, could support military mobility, transport, and field operations.

"We have always partnered with government customers in times of peace, crisis, and conflict to serve society. During World War II, Ford's assembly lines produced hundreds of thousands of aircraft, trucks, and engines for the Allied effort," Ford pointed out.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that not only Ford, but also GM, Aerospace, and Oshkosh were in talks with the Trump administration to convert civilian industrial capacity into weapons production.

The effort to boost the war economy is part of what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described as putting the defense industrial base on a "wartime footing."

Evidence of converting underused civilian industrial capacity has already been seen with the German automaker Volkswagen, which will soon transform its Lower Saxony factory from producing T-Roc Cabriolets to manufacturing parts for the Iron Dome missile interceptor system.

One major vulnerability is labor disruption. Far-left unions could weaponize strikes and other work stoppages to slow or derail America's defense-industrial buildup at a moment when conflicts across Eurasia, from Ukraine to Iran, are already drawing down critical weapons stockpiles.

We suspect other major U.S. manufacturers will soon issue statements similar to Ford's amid Trump's push for a booming war economy.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 05:45

"The Political Shift Is Inevitable": AfD Leader Weidel Heralds New Polling High For Party

Zero Hedge -

"The Political Shift Is Inevitable": AfD Leader Weidel Heralds New Polling High For Party

Via Remix News,

The latest Insa Sunday poll has given the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party a new record high for voter support. At 29 percent, up 1 point, the AfD has an even greater lead over the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), which fell 1 point to 22 percent.

A YouGov poll just last week showed AfD at 28 percent and the CDU/CSU at 22 percent.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel took to X to celebrate the news, pointing out that Germany’s current ruling coalition stands now at just 34 percent.

“The political shift is inevitable—we will put the interests of our country and our citizens back at the forefront!” she wrote.

This continues the downward trend for the CDU/CSU alliance, currently governing Germany in coalition with the SPD. Back in February 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD together received almost 45 percent of the second-round votes. In mid-April, points out Junge Freiheit, they were still polling at 25 percent according to Insa, while the AfD reached 26 percent. Just a month earlier, the CDU and CSU were slightly ahead of the AfD.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats (SPD) continue to weaken, dropping one point to 12 percent, behind the Greens, who gained 1.5 points to reach 14 percent. The Left Party now stands at 10 percent, down 1 point, and the FDP and BSW, at 3 percent each, would not even enter parliament. 

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) has been under increasing pressure due to the ongoing economic stagnation, layoffs, bankruptcies, and energy crisis. There have even been calls for new elections, particularly from its coalition partner, the SPD.

As Remix News reported earlier this month, the SPD is upset over proposed cuts to social programs, backed by the CDU, to address Germany’s increasing budget deficit.

The SPD, however, is not Merz’s only problem, as a significant right-leaning faction of the CDU is increasingly unhappy with his performance and what they feel is the CDU’s inability to pass laws and reforms with the far-left SPD as its partner.

CDU MP Christian von Stetten, for example, reportedly told a business event recently that the coalition would “definitely not” last the full four years of its term.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 05:00

UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

Zero Hedge -

UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

One week after Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warned CNBC of a "new wake-up call" for global trade amid the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a deepening energy crisis that could intensify further in June, UBS analysts are out with a new note telling clients they have "reactivated" their Global Supply Chain Stress Index in response to increasingly alarming signals emerging across global logistics networks.

"Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic," UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade wrote in a note on Sunday.

Lafourcade explained that global supply chain stress is emerging quickly, with the index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.

"We are now reactivating it to assess disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict," he said, noting that the last time the index was published was in February 2023, or the period in which Covid snarled supply chains.

The Global Supply Chain Stress Index is surging again.

PMI delivery times are increasing again.

The full note can be read by Professional subscribers here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Related:

JPMorgan analysts warned that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked for another four weeks.

With that said, June is only a few weeks away, and early indications suggest that continued disruption of the maritime chokepoint could begin to materially affect global trade next month, with risks extending well beyond that if the chokepoint remains shuttered.

Separately, with Brent back in triple-digit territory, UBS analyst Dimitrios Laloudakis pointed to surging yields worldwide:

US yields join G10 peers in estimating rate hikes for 2026. 2y yields comfortably above moving averages. Cross asset implications should drag equities lower, vol higher, and duration to selloff.

It appears something has to give if Hormuz remains choked by the end of the month.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 04:15

Pakistan Deploys Thousands Of Troops, Jet Fighter Squadron To Saudi Arabia

Zero Hedge -

Pakistan Deploys Thousands Of Troops, Jet Fighter Squadron To Saudi Arabia

Via The Cradle

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a ​squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact, Reuters reported on Monday, citing security and government officials.

The officials described the Pakistani deployment as a "substantial, combat-capable force intended to support Saudi Arabia's military if the kingdom comes under further attack," Reuters wrote.

Illustrative via Pakistan air force

Pakistan's military cooperation with ‌the Saudi kingdom is expanding amid threats by the US and Israel to renew military operations against Iran, which ceased following the announcement of a ceasefire on April 8.

During the war, Iran carried out attacks against US military bases and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia in response to the kingdom's support for the US and Israeli aggression.

Saudi Arabia responded by launching numerous unpublicized strikes on Iran. However, Riyadh has sought in recent weeks to de-escalate the conflict, while Islamabad has served as a mediator in talks between Washington and Tehran.

The defense agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan reportedly requires both Islamic countries ⁠to come to each other's defense in the event of an attack.

Reuters noted that Saudi Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has previously suggested the agreement offers Saudi Arabia protection ​under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella.

According to the sources speaking with the news agency, Pakistan has deployed a full squadron of around 16 warplanes, including JF-17 fighters made jointly with China, two squadrons of drones, and around 8,000 troops. Pakistan has pledged to send additional troops if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defense system.

Both countries benefit from the alliance, as Pakistan has a large military due to its decades-long conflict with India, while Saudi Arabia provides badly needed foreign currency to Pakistan's heavily indebted government.

Talks are reportedly underway to bring both Turkiye and Qatar into the Saudi–Pakistani alliance. 

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif revealed during an interview with Hum News on 11 May that a deal to bring Turkiye and Qatar into the mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia is being “finalized.”

“If Qatar and Turkiye also join the existing agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it would create significant cooperation in both the economic and defense spheres in our region and reduce external dependence,” Asif told Pakistan-based Hum News, adding that their inclusion would be “a welcome development.”

Last week, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Saudi Arabia has “floated” the possibility of reaching a “non-aggression pact” between Iran and neighboring states modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which eased tensions during the Cold War in Europe.

The Saudi-proposed pact for the day after the US-Israeli war on Iran ends reportedly has support from several European capitals, which view it as “the best way to avoid future conflict” and have urged Arab states to support it.

The British daily cites an unnamed Arab diplomat who says that such a pact would be welcomed “by most Arab and Muslim states, as well as by Iran,” although concerns remain about Israel's continued threats to reignite the war regardless of any deal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 03:30

Escobar On Xi's "Constructive Strategic Stability"

Zero Hedge -

Escobar On Xi's "Constructive Strategic Stability"

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

If all of us are magnanimous enough, we might infer that Xi and Trump agreed on a three-year stability framework.

The headline on the front page of China Daily this past Thursday was a thunder and lightning “Red-carpet welcome for Trump in Beijing”.

Well, complete with electric jumpin’ children waving flowers and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, built in 1420, symbolizing the connection between heaven and humanity.

Youth meet tradition. The generation that will lead fully modernized China meets deep History. A dazed and confused POTUS could barely absorb a running masterclass in civilization.

Xi Dada was proverbially sharp: “We should be partners, not rivals.” The Exceptionals were stunned. All that after the non-stop litany of trade wars, tech sanctions, non-stop Taiwan hysteria, military encirclement, geoconomic confrontation, anti-China rhetoric.

Cool down. Be cool.

Oh, the twists and turns of the most important bilateral relation on the planet. Even as both economies are quite intertwined, bilateral trade in goods reached 4.01 trillion yuan ($590 million) in 2025. In global terms, that’s not exactly groundbreaking: only 8.8% of China’s total foreign trade.

At the state banquet, Xi’s sharp rhetorical dagger performed the feat of uniting MAGA and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation:

“The people of China and the United States are both great peoples, achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and making America great again, can go hand in hand.”

The barbarians were puzzled. Again.

Then Xi explained where we are, concisely. It took only one sentence:

“The transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent.”

Compare it to when he first referred to the “transformation”, in public, for a global audience: right after the meeting with Putin in the Kremlin in the Spring of 2023.

And then Xi immediately asked: “Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?”

As much as the Thucydides Trap is yet another feeble US ThinkTank-land concoction – the best analysts of Thucydides are Greeks and Italians, not the Beltway gang – Xi’s metaphor was actually stressing that China, now, is the leader of the new emerging order.

And it got here without firing a shot.

That “constructive strategic stability”

Xi then deployed his new vision for US-China relations – at least for the next 3 years – via a quite startling slogan: “constructive strategic stability” (italics mine).

Yet that presents three serious problems.

  • The Empire of Chaos is not constructive: it’s destructive.

  • It’s not strategic: at best it’s crudely tactical, tactics changing all the time.

  • And it’s not about stability: it’s about instilling and deploying chaos, alongside lies, plunder and, as we see in Venezuela and especially Iran, piracy.

So Xi, rationally, cannot possibly expect “cooperation” from the Empire as “the mainstay” of the relationship, much less “healthy stability with competition within proper limits.”

If all of us are magnanimous enough, we might infer that Xi and Trump agreed on a three-year stability framework which should be interpreted as a structural reset – featuring cooperation first, then managed competition, and predictable peace as the end result.

Well, never forget we are dealing, in the immortal definition of Grandmaster Lavrov, with a “non-agreement capable” US.

And of course there’s the “Taiwan question”. Xi at his sharpest: “’Taiwan independence’ and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water”. The Americans must exercise “extra caution” in “handling the Taiwan question”.

Xi called it “the most important issue in China-US relations”. For Beijing, this is the ultimate red line. Team Trump may still not understand the stakes. Taiwan is the variable with the potential to reset the whole, optimistic three-year “peaceful” equation to zero.

And incidentally, American MSM spin that Xi traded non-interference by the US in Taiwan for “helping” the US in Iran is absolutely ridiculous. China and Iran have an all-evolving strategic partnership.

While all that was proceeding in Beijing, I had the pleasure of spending a long geopolitical lunch in Shanghai with the remarkable Li Bo, the general director of Guancha, the number one independent media in China, with at least 120 million daily followers.

Among other nuggets, Li Bo explained that Taiwan is not a problem for Beijing: it’s an internal matter that will be solved peacefully. The real problem is the rearming of Japan, especially now when under the frankly militaristic Sanae Takaichi administration.

Now for the real VIPs in the Trump-Xi show. After all the “evil empire” craze, the decoupling hysteria, the de-risking paranoia, the sanctions tsunami, the tariff tsunami, the war rhetoric, we have an oligarchic bunch with a collective market capitalization of over $10 trillion flying to Beijing to literally beg Xi Jinping, in person, for…deals.

Trump was estatic:

“I wanted the number one from each empire! Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and the other titans… the best in the world are here, right in front of you.”

Then, the clincher:

“They’re here today to pay respect to you and to China. They come hungry to do business, invest, and create. From our side, it’ll be 100% reciprocal.”

The “indispensable” nation paying tribute to the real 21st century geoeconomic empire. History will have a ball with it.

The keys to the new Temple of Heaven

Tesla, Apple, Boeing, GE Aerospace, everyone may desperately need China’s rare earths: China controls nearly 99% of the global processing capacity for rare-earth minerals. Yet China, structurally, and increasingly, does not need these American behemoths.

The combined revenue exposure to China across the top 12 companies represented by their CEOs on this trip is over $300 billion a year.

Musk needs to keep building Teslas – the Gigafactory, his primary export hub, is outside of Shanghai – without a 100% tariff. Jensen Huang needs chip export licenses so Nvidia may sell into this immense AI market (but China doesn’t need Nvidia anymore). Tim Cook needs Apple’s $70 billion China supply chain to remain steady.

The real problem is BlackRock’s Larry Fink avid for Chinese financial markets to “open up” for extra Wall Street profits (Li Bo told me at best the Chinese will let them open a little office in Hainan island…) Fink, moreover, is the actual new leader of the Davos gang, directly responsible for the funding of AI surveillance data centers all over the US.

The White House readout was beaming on “expanding market access for US businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment into US industries”; “increasing Chinese purchases of US agricultural products”; and Xi expressing “interest in purchasing more US oil”.

Yet there’s not a single word about any “trade discussions” coming from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

So in theory we had this trillionaire CEO party eager to “open up” China for American business/trade. Business in Shanghai was definitely not impressed. After all China is actively building its own independence – it’s all enshrined in the targets of the new Five-Year Plan – while the US, via these trillionaire CEOs, essentially demonstrated the formalization of its own dependence.

While all this sound and fury was going on in Beijing, the Foreign Ministers of Russia, China (not Wang Yi, he remained in Beijing side by side with Xi), India and, crucially, Iran, and others, were in New Delhi for a very important BRICS summit focused on what Moscow defined as reforming the system of “global governance” with a predominant role for the Global South.

BRICS may be in a coma. But if there’s anyone capable of resurrecting it, it’s Grandmaster Lavrov and Russia, side by side with China and emerging global power Iran. Once again: it’s the new Primakov triangle, RIC (Russia-India-China) which will find the real keys to open a new Temple of Heaven.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 23:25

Software CEO Convicted In Massive $1 Billion Medicare Fraud Scheme Targeting Seniors

Zero Hedge -

Software CEO Convicted In Massive $1 Billion Medicare Fraud Scheme Targeting Seniors

In a verdict hailed by federal officials as a major blow against one of the most egregious health care fraud operations in Florida history, a jury in the Southern District of Florida convicted Brett Blackman, 42, of Johnson County, Kansas, on multiple conspiracy charges related to a sprawling scheme that bilked Medicare and other federal programs out of more than $1 billion.

Brett Blackman / Credit: Department of Justice

Blackman, the founder, owner, and CEO of HealthSplash, was found guilty of conspiracy to commit health care fraud and wire fraud, conspiracy to pay and receive health care kickbacks, and conspiracy to defraud the United States and make false statements in connection with health care matters. He faces a maximum of 20 years in prison on the primary fraud counts, plus additional time on the others. Sentencing is scheduled for August 26, 2026, according to the DOJ. 

From "Healthcare Innovator" to Fraud Mastermind

Prior to his legal troubles, Blackman positioned himself as a serial entrepreneur and healthcare technology disruptor. He described HealthSplash as a visionary platform built on blockchain and smart contracts to connect patients, providers, servicers, and payers with transparent, friction-free care. The company aimed to eliminate suffering by delivering healthcare data instantly and shifting the system from reactive to proactive.

Blackman had expanded a medical compliance documentation firm called PMDRx into DMERx (Power Mobility Doctor Rx, LLC) to broaden its offerings. HealthSplash acquired DMERx in September 2017. Court documents portray a starkly different reality: the platform became a tool for generating false and fraudulent doctors’ orders for durable medical equipment (DME), primarily orthotic braces, and other prescriptions.

How the Scheme Worked

Prosecutors said Blackman and co-conspirators aggressively targeted hundreds of thousands of Medicare beneficiaries - often vulnerable seniors - through foreign call centers, spam mailers, and telemarketing. The goal: pressure recipients into accepting medically unnecessary equipment.

Once beneficiaries agreed, the DMERx platform routed orders to telemedicine doctors who signed them—frequently with little or no patient interaction, and sometimes while falsely claiming in-person tests had occurred. Suppliers and pharmacies paid illegal kickbacks for these orders, then billed Medicare and other federal programs (including those serving veterans and military families) more than $1 billion. Federal programs paid out over $450 million on the fraudulent claims.

Evidence at trial included testimony from an undercover agent who posed as a beneficiary. A foreign call center pushed multiple braces on the agent, and a doctor signed orders claiming tests that could only be done in person - despite no real interaction. Blackman’s team allegedly used sham contracts and order manipulation to evade audits.

“This was not health care. It was a billion-dollar fraud machine,” said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Jason A. Reding Quiñones. Officials emphasized the scheme’s industrial scale and its exploitation of the sick and elderly.

Co-defendant Gary Cox, former CEO of DMERx, was convicted in a prior trial in June 2025 and sentenced to 15 years in prison.

Flashy Lifestyle Amid Alleged Fraud

Federal releases highlighted Blackman’s lavish displays of wealth, including a music video featuring a waterfront mansion and photos of him adorned in gold accessories, including a large dollar-sign necklace.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche called it “cold, calculated, industrial-scale theft.” FBI and HHS-OIG officials stressed that no web of sham companies would protect fraudsters from accountability.

A photo of the mansion shown in Blackman's music video. / Credit: Department of Justice

The case aligns with broader DOJ efforts, including the recent launch of a dedicated Fraud Division and support for President Trump’s Task Force to Eliminate Fraud.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 23:00

The Politicization Of Everything

Zero Hedge -

The Politicization Of Everything

Authored by David Solway via The Epoch Times,

There was a time when politics occupied only a compartment of life.

A citizen might vote, follow public affairs, argue over taxes or foreign policy and then return to the ordinary business of living: work, worship, family, literature, music, sport, conviviality.

This older balance has been upended.

Politics no longer confines itself to government or elections; it increasingly permeates entertainment, education, business, sport, language—even private conscience. As I noted in my recent column about the “apolitical man,” today we inhabit a culture in which nearly every institution demands ideological participation, and where even silence or indifference may be interpreted as a political act.

The issue runs deeper than ordinary political disagreement. We are living through the gradual disappearance of non-political life itself. Today virtually everything arrives freighted with ideological significance. Everything must justify itself politically before it can simply exist.

As the great American political philosopher Harvey Mansfield observed in “The Rise and Fall of Rational Control,” modern society is crowded with instruments of state control “from the most trivial to the most coercive,” apparently to save us the inconvenience of thinking for ourselves. Yet these are also intrusions into privacy, exerting supervision and pressure over life and conduct. The modern political state no longer merely governs society; it increasingly seeks to furnish society’s entire meaning.

Polish philosopher Ryszard Legutko, having lived under both communism and liberal democracy, recognized the unsettling similarities between these ostensibly opposed systems. In “The Demon in Democracy,” Legutko argued that both systems tend toward ideological conformity and both believe themselves liberated from the obligations of history. The civilized past survives largely as maquillage—a decorative paste applied to glamorize a grubby political machine.

The result is what early 19th-century French political philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville foresaw in “Democracy in America”: a “network of small complicated rules, minute and uniform,” through which individuality is gradually softened, bent and guided into conformity.

De Tocqueville understood that democratic societies might drift not toward overt tyranny but toward a condition of permanent tutelage, in which citizens become increasingly dependent upon administrative systems regulating everyday life.

This tendency now permeates nearly every aspect of Western civilization. The quality of feeling itself has become political. Comedy is judged according to ideological criteria before anyone asks whether it is funny. Art becomes activism. Sport becomes moral theatre. Education concerns political formation rather than learning. Even the patent absurdities of wokism often fail to provoke laughter because they arrive stamped with a political brand.

The modern state increasingly treats culture not as an independent civilizational inheritance deserving protection but as raw material to be supervised, corrected, and ideologically aligned. The old pastoral ideal of the fulfilled and self-reliant individual citizen gradually gives way to the therapeutic subject: managed, supervised, controlled, yet perpetually assured of her freedom in “our democracy.”

One recalls the now-scrubbed World Economic Forum slogan: “You will own nothing and you will be happy.” This is the figment of the old apolitical man falsely wedded to the state. Dependency is rebranded as liberation. Administrative management becomes therapeutic care. The happiness of the classical apolitical man has been transformed into the imposed satisfaction of the political man.

The Russian theological philosopher Nikolai Berdyaev warned of this tendency in “The Destiny of Man” when he described the modern state’s willingness to sacrifice freedom—with its innate acceptance of risk and the possibility of failure—for the illusion of perfection. Once politics assumes responsibility for constructing moral meaning itself, there can be no genuine limit to state control. Every sphere of life becomes potentially political because every sphere may contribute either to ideological conformity or ideological dissent.

Meanwhile, the civilized inheritance sustaining the West steadily weakens. Our governing classes inhabit the architectural husk of antiquity while possessing little connection to the civilization that produced it. They have never read Plato or Cicero, scarcely know Virgil exists, and treat history largely as an embarrassment or political inconvenience. The shimmer of potentiality embodied in the classical world has been damped; the larger vista of human achievement increasingly redacted.

Yet not all is lost.

Churches, local associations, independent journals, small enterprises, and serious works of culture still preserve fragments of the civilization that politics alone cannot sustain. These “apolitical forces” remind us that human beings cannot live entirely within ideological systems without becoming spiritually diminished.

A civilization survives only when there remain spheres of life politics cannot wholly absorb. Once politics becomes everything, civilization itself begins to disappear.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 22:35

Japanese Bonds Crater After PM Takaichi Prepares To Issue Much More Debt To Pay For Gasoline Subsidies

Zero Hedge -

Japanese Bonds Crater After PM Takaichi Prepares To Issue Much More Debt To Pay For Gasoline Subsidies

While it may seem like every government these days - not just Emerging but certainly all Developing countries too - has become a banana republic in light of the increasingly more idiotic fiscal and monetary policies adopted to kick the can at least until the next election, nobody is quite as cartoonish as Japan, the place where all modern-day central bank experiments started in the late 1980s.

While on one hand the Japanese finance ministry and Bank of Japan have, in recent days and over the years, engaged in aggressive currency day trading, where they try to avoid a collapse in the yen by purchasing the currency in exchange for reserves such as US dollars, on the other hand, the same authorities have been, for the past 3 decades, been engaging in unlimited yen printing through perpetual QE (which despite the country's soaring inflation and collapsing currency, goes on to this day even though Japan's Yield Curve Control is taking a short break). End result: between the selling and buying of yen, the only thing Japanese officials have achieved is becoming the laughing stock of the world. Meanwhile, Japanese bond yields have exploded to multi-decade, if not record highs, as we showed last night.

One reason, besides all the other "usual suspects" such as soaring energy import costs, an grotesque inability to hike rates and contain inflation, not to mention relentless capital flight, is that as Reuters reported overnight, Japan's government is likely to issue even more debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion ​the economic blow from the Middle East war.

Of course, any additional debt issuance would further strain Japan's ‌already worsening finances and may accelerate rises in long-term interest rates. Actually, better make that "will" accelerate: the report pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) to 2.8% on Monday, its highest since October 1996, and the 30-year yield to a record top.

On Monday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she had told Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama last week to start work on compiling a supplementary budget, a rather dramatic shift from previous remarks ruling out the chance of an extra budget.

The extra budget will focus on ​funding government subsidies to curb gasoline and utility bills, as surging oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict cloud the outlook for an economy heavily reliant on fuel imports ​from the region.

While the size of spending has yet to be worked out, the decision could cast doubt on the administration's laughable pledge to pursue a "responsible, proactive" ⁠fiscal policy. Spoiler alert: there is no "responsible" fiscal policy when your debt/GDP is over 200%. You can only hope for a peaceful death.

And the market was quick to react. 

"The about-face by Takaichi, who had been ruling out an extra budget all along, is making markets jittery and triggering a JGB selloff across the curve," said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at ​Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management.

In a proposal to the finance ministry, opposition party leader Yuichiro Tamaki called on Friday for an extra budget of about 3 trillion yen ($18.9 billion), which may serve as a benchmark ​for future debates on the size of spending.

"There's a host of reason to sell JGBs but very few to buy," Inadome said, adding that markets are starting to price in the chance of an extra budget to the scale of 5 trillion-to-10 trillion yen.

Finance minister Katayama, who is in Paris to attend the Group of Seven finance leaders' gathering, said on Monday she was instructed by the prime minister to "minimise various risks," when asked about the rise in long-term ​interest rates. 

"That's something I'm contemplating," Katayama said when asked how the government would fund the extra budget. She did not elaborate.

Japan already curbs gasoline prices with subsidies and eyes tapping existing funds to revive ​subsidies for utility bills (which of course means no demand destruction due to artificially low prices, but instead the massive new debt needed to subsidize said spending, will instead translate into state and sovereign destruction). An extra budget would come on top of a record 122-trillion-yen budget for the fiscal year that began in April, which makes up the core of the dovish premier's expansionary fiscal policy.

Critics warn that ‌more spending plans, ⁠coupled with slow interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, could fan inflationary pressure in an economy already seeing rising energy costs from the Middle East war and higher import prices from a weak yen.

Japan's Nikkei stock average fell on Monday and the yen hit 158.97 per dollar, the weakest level since April 29, and it's about to explode even higher once the marker realizes the sheer idiocy of selling dollars to buy yen on one hand, and then turning around and doing QE - i.e., printing yen - to absorb all the new massive debt issuance about to hit a bond market where the BOJ has long since become a 50% holder of all JGBs and the marginal price setter. 

"When countries like Japan and Britain contemplate fiscal stimulus, there's a tendency for that to trigger a triple selling of shares, currencies, and bonds because their economic growth is weak and inflationary risks are high," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking.

The extra budget will be compiled around June ​or July, when the administration will lay out ​plans to boost investment and details for a ⁠two-year freeze on an 8% levy on food.

Reuters tongue-in-cheekly adds that "the bond selloff would also complicate the BOJ's decision on whether to raise its short-term policy rate to 1% from 0.75% at its next meeting in June." Uhm, no, it wouldn't complicate it - it would make it an absolute farce as the last thing Japan needs if it is to sell even more debt, is higher rates. But then Tokyo better brace for a yen at 200 vs the dollar, unless the MOF is prepared to liquidate all of its USD-denominated reserves in an absolutely idiotic attempt to keep the yen from collapsing. 

At the June meeting, the BOJ will also review its existing bond tapering programme ​and unveil a new plan for fiscal 2027 onward.

The war-induced spike in energy prices, coupled with rising import costs from the collapsing yen, pushed Japan's wholesale ​inflation to a three-year high ⁠of 4.9% in April, bolstering the case for the central bank to raise rates as soon as next month.

While the BOJ tends to avoid shifting policy when markets are volatile, delaying rate hikes further could stoke already mounting fears it is behind the curve in addressing the risk of too-high inflation, analysts say. On the other hand, raising rates could spark an even more aggressive selloff across the curve, resulting in both a bond and FX market failure. Oops. 

Markets have priced in roughly a 70% chance of a June rate hike after a slew of recent hawkish signals from ⁠the BOJ ​and a split vote to the BOJ's decision to keep rates steady in April. Nearly two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters expect the ​BOJ to raise rates in June.

"If inflationary risks heighten, there's a chance the BOJ could raise short-term rates to 1.5% by the March end of the current fiscal year," said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities. The 10-year yield could ​head towards 3%, she added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 22:10

Hundreds Of Subpoenas Are Targeting The Russian Collusion Hoax

Zero Hedge -

Hundreds Of Subpoenas Are Targeting The Russian Collusion Hoax

According to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, the Justice Department is hunting the architects of the Russia hoax, and they’re leaving no stone unturned.

Blanche sat down with Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures to discuss what he says is a sweeping criminal investigation into the origins of one of the most destructive political operations in history. 

The Southern District of Florida has an open criminal probe. Hundreds of subpoenas. Hundreds of witnesses. Blanche insists the DOJ is working hard and working efficiently. Bartiromo, who has been covering this story for nearly 10 years, wanted answers on why the process has taken so long.

“What have you done about it?” she asked point-blank.

"Well, look, that's exactly what we're investigating right now. And by the way, what is not in dispute is that the whole Russia hoax, there was absolutely nothing to it," Blanche told Bartiromo.

"And so the question that the American people have to ask is, well, then why did they do it? Why did Comey say what he said? Why did the outgoing Obama administration do what they did?”

Blanche continued.

“And that's what we're studying right now, because it did great damage to this country. It did great damage to President Trump's first term. And we want to understand why that happened, why there are continued to be an effort by operatives in the government to go after President Trump while he was in office, and then, of course, over the past several years as well.”

 But Bartiromo wasn’t accepting his statements at face value.

 "I'd like to know why it's taking so long," Bartiromo pressed.

"Has the statute of limitations run up? Do you have no more wiggle room in terms of zeroing in on things like the Mueller report, the Nunes report, and all the evidence that was clear — that they knew there was no Russia collusion?"

Blanche pushed back on the statute-of-limitations concern, arguing that the conspiracy arguably continued well past its origins (through the Mar-a-Lago raid in 2023), which could extend the legal exposure considerably. He framed the entire thing as potentially one continuous criminal conspiracy, stretching from 2015 through 2023 as part of a singular effort to destroy President Trump. "Whether that's one conspiracy that continued from 2015, 2016, all the way up to 2023 is what we're looking at right now," Blanche said. "We're finding out some incredibly troubling things. And at some point at the right time, that will be made public."

 "When is the time right?” Bartiromo asked. “When should we expect these charges of conspiracy?" 

“Well, I mean, look, as has been publicly reported, the Southern District of Florida has an open criminal investigation,” Blanche explained. “That involves hundreds of subpoenas. It involves hundreds of witnesses. And so, as far as timing and when we can expect it, we are working hard, and we are working efficiently, but we are going to do it right. We are not going to rush something, rush something that shouldn't, that isn't ready. We're not going to reach a conclusion before our investigation is over. But I assure you and I assure the American people that we are completely focused on it.” 

With hundreds of subpoenas and hundreds of witnesses, this is clearly no small investigation. And considering the media and Democrats will scrutinize every move, the DOJ knows it can’t afford to cut corners. In a case this explosive, being thorough matters a lot more than moving fast.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 21:20

Trump Demands DOJ Probe Of Maryland's 500,000 "Illegal" Mail-In Ballots

Zero Hedge -

Trump Demands DOJ Probe Of Maryland's 500,000 "Illegal" Mail-In Ballots

Submitted by Maryland Freedom Caucus,

President Donald Trump is demanding immediate action from the Department of Justice over Maryland's exploding mail-in ballot scandal, and he's not mincing words.

In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump slammed the fiasco:

 "In Maryland, they sent out 500,000 Illegal Mail In Ballots, and they got caught! So now, they're going to send out 500,000 more Mail In Ballots, but nobody knows what's happening with the first 500,000 they sent. … I'm going to ask the Attorney General of the United States, and the DOJ, to bring an immediate investigation into this situation."

The Maryland State Board of Elections admitted late last week that a third-party vendor printed and mailed roughly 400,000 ballots for the June 23 gubernatorial primary, with an undetermined number of voters receiving the wrong party's candidates. Because officials cannot tell exactly who received the flawed ballots, they are re-mailing replacements to every voter who requested one before May 14. However, the original ballots remain in circulation.

The Maryland Freedom Caucus was first out of the gate. On May 16, we issued a press release exposing the crisis, demanding that Jared DeMarinis release Maryland's voter rolls for a federal audit, and warning that "400,000 double ballots in circulation" threaten the fundamental principle of one vote, one person.

This is not an isolated glitch. Last fall, the Maryland Freedom Caucus and our partners at Secure the Vote MD blew the lid off the Ian Roberts case — an illegal alien from Guyana who was registered to vote in Maryland for years, requested absentee ballots, and remained on the active rolls even after his arrest. That single case proved what we've warned for years: Maryland's voter rolls are bloated with non-citizens, deceased voters, and people who no longer live here.

Worse, when the DOJ requested Maryland's full voter registration data last year, the State Board of Elections stonewalled. Administrator DeMarinis specifically asked whether the list would be used for immigration enforcement before providing anything meaningful - a clear admission that transparency threatens their continued subterfuge.

President Trump's call for a DOJ investigation is the national spotlight this scandal desperately needs. Permanent, no-excuse mail-in voting was sold as "convenient and secure." In reality, it has become a black box that erodes public trust and invites chaos, exactly as the Maryland Freedom Caucus has warned.

But calls for investigation without an immediate remedy will not restore Marylanders' confidence in their elections. Governor Wes Moore must immediately issue an executive order to restore strict chain-of-custody controls: end the use of unmonitored drop boxes, suspend the use of USPS for local delivery, require that all marked ballots be returned directly to a local Board of Elections office, and implement real-time logging so every ballot can be tracked from voter to canvass.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 20:55

Wayfair CFO's Muted Home-Goods Demand Outlook Offers More Bad News For Realtors

Zero Hedge -

Wayfair CFO's Muted Home-Goods Demand Outlook Offers More Bad News For Realtors

Wayfair CFO Kate Gulliver appeared at JPMorgan's conference Monday morning in a discussion with the bank's retail analyst, Christopher Horvers.

What caught our attention in the 35-minute conversation, which ranged from the online home-goods retailer's financial position to broader consumer trends, was Gulliver's outlook on home goods and housing markets.

A more active housing market typically drives demand for big-ticket home purchases such as sofas, tables, and other furnishings sold on Wayfair's online platform.

However, her forecast for the remainder of the year was decidedly muted, a gloomy outlook that may leave realtors and mortgage brokers uneasy.

Horvers asked Gulliver about the home goods and housing markets, including whether she was worried about soaring energy prices, the post-stimulus era, and how those factors could affect consumer demand for home goods over the rest of the year.

Her outlook for the rest of the year was not great. She noted that the home goods category "has not been a tailwind for us."

"At some point, this cyclical category will recover, but our expectations for 2026 and our guidance for the second quarter do not assume any category recovery. Our operating assumption for 2026 is that the category stays where it is," Gulliver explained.

Gulliver's dismal view of the home goods and housing markets for the rest of the year offers valuable insight because Wayfair is one of the largest online home-furnishings platforms in the U.S.

Much of Wayfair's consumer base consists of millennials and Gen Xers in the household-formation cycle, including raising a family, buying a home, or moving into a larger residence, all of which drive demand for furniture and such.

This muted activity she observes and forecasts also comes as the 30-year mortgage rate is back around 6.5%, up roughly 35 basis points from when the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February.

Related:

Gulliver's view serves as a proxy for the housing market. Her comments this morning offer no relief for the struggling realtors and mortgage brokers over the last several years.

Also to note, rate markets are pricing in hikes next year as energy inflation from the Hormuz chokepoint disruption pushes up inflation expectations and TSY yields soar.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/18/2026 - 20:30

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