Individual Economists

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

Welcome to June! Kick off your back-to-work with our expertly curated morning reads:

The Lowest Consumer Sentiment EVER: We are currently sitting at the lowest level of consumer sentiment in the past 75 years!. Lower than the Great Financial Crisis when the stock market crashed almost 60%, the financial system nearly imploded and the unemployment rate reached more than 10%. Lower than the aftermath of the dot-com bubble bursting which included a 50% stock market crash, a recession and 9/11. Ben Carlson on the new Michigan low — historically a contrarian buy signal, but the gap between sentiment and spending has gotten weird. The chart and the caveat in one post. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

The Chip Rally Is at $5.7 Trillion and Counting. How Much Further Can It Go?: WSJ on the semiconductor complex’s total market cap, the unit economics underneath, and the multiple expansion that has done most of the work. Sober the next time someone quotes “still early.” Surging demand for chip makers has lifted major indexes from their wartime malaise (Wall Street Journalsee also The Chip Rally Has Gone Parabolic. It’s Time to Separate the Pillars From the Pretenders. A furious rally has raised fears of a new bubble. If and when the party ends, five stocks will be left standing. They all remain undervalued. (Barron’s)

Ford’s Stock Is Surging — and It’s Got Nothing to Do With Its Car Business: WSJ on why Ford Credit is now driving the equity story. The legacy automaker has become a financial-services company that happens to ship sheet metal. (Wall Street Journal)

The 4% rule is now the 4.7% rule. That matters for your retirement. The 4% rule has drawn praise and pillory for years. Now, says its author, it’s time for a revisionto 4.7%. The revision illustrates both the strength and weakness of the original rule. (USA Today)

Independent bookstores are multiplying, although many people still think they’re dying out: The Inquirer on the indie-bookstore comeback — romantasy demand, third-place economics, and what Amazon and the chains can’t quite replicate. The vibe shift has numbers behind it. The latest numbers from the American Booksellers Association show independent stores expanding at a pace not seen this century. (The Philadelphia Inquirer)

You Won the Battle on Investment Fees. You’re Losing the War Against Taxes.: Jason Zweig on where the real frictions in long-horizon returns live now — not expense ratios, but capital-gains drag, turnover, and the bracket math no one models. Required reading. (Wall Street Journal)

A Famous Math Problem Stumped Humans for 80 Years. AI Just Cracked It. The math world is losing its mind over the new solution to an Erdős problem. This is what AI found, how we missed it—and why it matters. WSJ on an OpenAI model knocking out an Erdős problem that had been open for eighty years. The “calculator for proofs” framing is starting to look closer to reality than to hype. (Wall Street Journal)

This High Schooler Developed an A.I. Tool to Diagnose Autism and ADHD Using the Retina: Smithsonian on a high-school project that turned a fundus camera into a screening tool. The headline is cute; the underlying methodology is not. (Smithsonian Magazine)

Three Ways Trump Is Losing the War: At the moment, the United States is negotiating with a regime that President Trump claimed we had already changed, to open a strait that was supposed to be open last month, and to end a nuclear program that we said we had obliterated. NYT opinion on the three distinct fronts where the Iran campaign has gone sideways — operational, diplomatic, domestic. Cleaner taxonomy than most of the cable coverage. (New York Times) see also Why Trump Keeps Getting Rolled in Negotiations: The Atlantic on the pattern: Trump opens hot, the counterparty waits him out, and the climbdown gets framed as a deal. Iran is just the latest specimen. (The Atlantic)

When Fame Comes Very, Very Late: Bob Graboyes on the people who hit their stride after sixty — composers, novelists, scientists. A reasonable antidote to the 30-under-30 ecosystem. (Bastiat’s Window)

Video of the day: Why Aldi is destroying traditional grocery stores.

 

Grok is the most sycophantic AI model

Source: Center for AI Safety via Paul Kedrosky

 

Be sure to check out our special Masters in Business this week, Remembering Jonathan Clements with Bill Bernstein and Jason Zweig. The two recall Clements’ impact on the investor community; they discuss his posthumous book, “Money and Me.”

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Monolithic 3D Silicon Chips Achieve Near-Perfect Yields At Low Temperatures

Zero Hedge -

Monolithic 3D Silicon Chips Achieve Near-Perfect Yields At Low Temperatures

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

Researchers at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign have developed a way to stack high-performance silicon circuits directly on top of one another, a breakthrough that could help the semiconductor industry keep increasing computing power without shrinking transistors further.

The 200-mm wafer contains multiple silicon layers stacked for monolithic 3D chip integration.University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

The approach tackles one of the biggest challenges facing chipmakers as Moore's law begins to slow. For decades, the industry boosted performance by making transistors smaller and packing more of them onto a chip. But as devices approach fundamental physical limits, further miniaturization is becoming increasingly difficult.

Instead of shrinking components, the Illinois team is building upward. By stacking multiple layers of silicon circuits, engineers can increase transistor density, reduce communication distances inside chips, and improve energy efficiency.

The researchers say their process could accelerate the development of monolithic three-dimensional chips, a long-sought technology that many experts see as the next step in semiconductor scaling.

Building Chips Upward

"Take something as simple as static random-access memory, which is universal in CPUs and GPUs. Today it takes six microelectronic devices called transistors on a single plane to store one bit of information. With vertical integration, you can distribute them across multiple layers. It's like replacing a sprawling suburb with high-rises: you get the same functionality, but the spatial footprint is reduced while making communication between layers faster and more efficient," said Qing Cao, associate professor of materials science and engineering.

While three-dimensional chip technologies already exist commercially, most rely on bonding together separately manufactured wafers. That approach creates relatively large connections between layers and limits how densely components can be integrated.

Monolithic three-dimensional integration takes a different route by building each circuit layer directly on top of the previous one. The method allows much denser vertical connections and more precise alignment between layers, potentially leading to faster and more efficient chips.

The challenge has been temperature. Manufacturing high-performance silicon devices typically requires temperatures approaching 1,000 degrees Celsius. However, once the first layer of circuits and metal wiring is completed, additional layers must remain below about 400 degrees Celsius to avoid damaging existing structures.

To overcome this barrier, the researchers developed a process that transfers ultrathin single-crystalline silicon nanomembranes onto completed circuit layers. The bonding process requires temperatures no higher than 200 degrees Celsius, staying well within the industry's thermal budget.

Beyond Moore's Limits

"Vertical integration is already starting to make its way into commercial devices, particularly in specialized AI hardware, but monolithic integration is what unlocks the full promise of 3D chips. For the first time, we have met the thermal budget of monolithic 3D integration using standard single-crystalline silicon and delivered unprecedented performance," Cao said.

The team also redesigned transistor fabrication to avoid high-temperature processing steps. Instead of conventional transistor structures, they used junctionless transistors that can be prepared before the stacking process begins.

Using the technique, the researchers built three stacked silicon layers containing 625 transistors each. The devices achieved yields between 98% and 100% while delivering performance comparable to standard silicon transistors fabricated at much higher temperatures.

The researchers also demonstrated three-dimensional logic circuits and static random-access memory cells by connecting the layers with vertical metal links.

"But most importantly, we've shown that this process is scalable," Cao said. "You can keep stacking layers beyond the three we demonstrated."

The researchers are now working to transfer the technology into an industrial semiconductor foundry with support from industry partners including IBM, Intel, and TSMC.

The study was published in the journal Nature.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 19:50

Israel Seizes Crusader Beaufort Castle, Marking Deepest Plunge Into Lebanon In Decades

Zero Hedge -

Israel Seizes Crusader Beaufort Castle, Marking Deepest Plunge Into Lebanon In Decades

Fresh Sunday reports say that Israel's military has made its deepest plunge into Lebanon in nearly three decades, having captured a strategic crusader castle site and UNESCO World Heritage Landmark, Beaufort castle.

It was last captured in 1982, when the IDF later pushed all the way north to occupy portions of Beirut. The army posted photographic proof via its Arabic spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, who issued an image on X showing Israeli troops walking outside the castle. An Israeli flag has also been raised over the stone fortress complex.

via IDF

The castile overlooks the Litani River, which Israeli forces have been pushing north of, and has stood for nearly 1,000 years - and was at various times used by Crusader knights, Saladin’s Jerusalem army, the Mamlukes, and Ottomans. In the 1980s, fighters from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) even occupied it for a time. The name Beaufort is Old French for "beautiful fortress."

Soon the heels of the historic site's capture, the IDF repeated a warning to everyone south of the Zahrani, saying they must evacuate or else face the possibility of coming under attack and thus death or injury.

"Anyone present near Hezbollah elements, facilities or means of combat endangers their life," an IDF spokesman said. The castle appears to have been shelled by the IDF before the final ground assault.

According to more details via The Times of Israel:

Troops took over territory in the Beaufort Ridge and Wadi Saluki stream area and expanded strikes north of the Litani River after the Hezbollah terror group fired multiple rockets and drones at Israel on Saturday afternoon and evening, forcing schools near the border with Lebanon to close on Sunday.

Footage from Sunday morning showed Israeli and IDF flags flying over the citadel, a strategic medieval Crusader-built fortress with symbolic importance in the history of Israel’s military entanglements in Lebanon. Shelling was audible and smoke rose from the surrounding area.

The fortress, also known as Qalaat al-Shakif, commands sweeping views of the Galilee Panhandle in northern Israel, as well as the Nabatieh area in southern Lebanon, making it a position of considerable strategic value.

The day prior to the takeover, northern Israel had come under heavy Hezbollah rocket and drone attack. These rocket waves have been stepped up as it's become clear the Lebanon ceasefire has effectively collapsed.

The past week has seen hundreds of projectiles fired on southern Lebanon. Gong back to early March, over 3,180 Lebanese have been killed, with more than 9,000 wounded - according to Lebanese health officials. The figures do not distinguish between armed combatants or civilians.

Critics of Israel have warned that Netanyahu is trying to sabotage Trump's efforts to find a final peace deal with Iran. The Israelis have long worried that Washington could in the end settle for a 'bad deal' - or one that doesn't ensure the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium.

The US-mediated truce was really only something that was meant to prevent Israel from bombing Beirut and other government centers once again.

Washington has been trying to put the pressure on the Lebanese government and national army to finally disarm Hezbollah - but this has remained unrealistic as the army is weak and underfunded (ironically in part due to limitations imposed by the US).

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 19:15

The End Of Digital Trust: How Quantum Computing Could Upend Security, Business, & Global Stability

Zero Hedge -

The End Of Digital Trust: How Quantum Computing Could Upend Security, Business, & Global Stability

Authored by Julio Rivera via American Greatness,

The scariest technology threats are usually the boring ones. Not the giant killer robots. Not the science fiction stuff. Not the dramatic movie scenes where somebody in sunglasses launches cyberattacks from a glowing underground bunker while alarms blare in the background. The truly dangerous threats arrive quietly. Q-Day falls squarely into that category.

To most people, the phrase sounds like something Netflix would slap on a conspiracy thriller thumbnail. In reality, it refers to the moment quantum computers become powerful enough to break the encryption systems that protect modern digital life. And when cybersecurity experts talk about this possibility, they don’t sound excited. No, they sound exhausted—because they know how unprepared much of the world still is.

Encryption is the invisible architecture underneath almost everything people interact with daily. Online banking. Cloud storage. Corporate systems. Government communications. Military operations. Healthcare records. Financial transactions. Satellites. Power infrastructure. Nearly every digital system that matters relies on cryptographic protections developed for a pre-quantum world.

That world is running out of time. Experts increasingly warn that quantum computing breakthroughs are advancing faster than expected, while organizations remain painfully slow to adapt. And corporate leadership still doesn’t fully grasp the seriousness of what’s coming.

A lot of companies approach cybersecurity the way people approach oil changes. They know they’re supposed to deal with it eventually, but they’d rather postpone the expense until smoke starts coming out of something important. Meanwhile, cybercriminals and hostile governments are operating several moves ahead.

The phrase “harvest now, decrypt later” has become one of the most alarming concepts in modern cybersecurity. Adversaries are already stealing encrypted information today with the expectation that future quantum systems will eventually crack the protections surrounding it.

That means the threat isn’t waiting for some future technological milestone. The threat has already started. And the scope of what’s potentially vulnerable is staggering. Intellectual property. Trade secrets. Proprietary AI systems. Pharmaceutical research. Defense communications. Infrastructure schematics. Diplomatic cables. Financial data. Internal corporate strategy. Decades of archived encrypted communications that organizations assumed would remain secure indefinitely.

A lot of executives still imagine cyberattacks as noisy smash-and-grab operations. Ransom notes. Locked systems. Flashing warnings. But some of the most effective compromises are almost embarrassingly subtle.

“Stealer” malware remains devastatingly efficient in the current cyber landscape, quietly extracting passwords, session cookies, authentication credentials, browser data, crypto wallets, and sensitive company access without triggering major alarms. Fake file deletion warnings and fraudulent system compromise messages still trick countless ordinary users into handing over access voluntarily. Some of the oldest scams in the book continue working because panic overrides common sense faster than any firewall can react.

Quantum computing doesn’t replace those existing threats; it magnifies them. And the implications extend far beyond corporate cybersecurity budgets.

If hostile governments achieve practical quantum decryption capabilities before widespread migration to post-quantum cryptography occurs, global security dynamics could shift dramatically overnight. Military communications, intelligence systems, satellite infrastructure, weapons logistics, and secure diplomatic channels all potentially become vulnerable in ways modern governments have never fully experienced before.

That kind of uncertainty changes how nations behave. Secure communications aren’t just a convenience for modern governments; they are foundational to deterrence, alliances, military coordination, intelligence operations, and geopolitical stability itself. Once nations begin doubting the integrity of those systems, mistrust escalates rapidly.

Which is why the recent diplomatic summit between China and the United States should have produced far more discussion about continuing to modernize the increasingly outdated 1979 science and technology agreement between the two countries. That framework belongs to an era before cyber warfare, before AI competition, before semiconductor dependency battles, and certainly before the looming quantum race currently shaping long-term national security strategy.

The technological relationship between global superpowers is no longer some side issue tucked away in academic policy circles. It is the policy circle.

And while governments maneuver strategically, private industry continues lagging dangerously behind. Many companies still rely on fragmented security practices, aging infrastructure, weak endpoint protection, and reactive cyber strategies designed for a threat environment that no longer exists. The time to improve cyber resilience started long ago.

The timeline problem makes everything worse. Migrating critical systems toward quantum-resistant cryptography takes years. Large enterprises often don’t even have complete inventories of where vulnerable encryption exists across their networks.

So, while the public still treats quantum computing like futuristic science fiction, cybersecurity professionals are staring at calendars.

Because unlike Y2K, there may not be one dramatic moment where everybody suddenly realizes the danger has arrived.

Instead, the erosion could happen gradually.

Silent infiltration. Invisible interception.

Archived communications quietly unlocked years later. Competitive advantages disappearing without obvious explanation. State actors obtaining access to sensitive information nobody ever imagined could be exposed.

That’s the nightmare scenario. Not chaos. Not collapse. Simply the slow realization that the digital locks humanity built around its most sensitive information no longer work the way everyone assumed they did.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 18:40

Berkshire Buys Taylor Morrison For $6.8 Billion In First Big Deal Under Greg Abel

Zero Hedge -

Berkshire Buys Taylor Morrison For $6.8 Billion In First Big Deal Under Greg Abel

Less than a month after we mused at Berkshire's most recent cash hoard which as of March 31 stood just shy of $400 billion, and wondered who Warren Buffett's replacement Greg Abel will acquire first...

... we got the answer on Sunday afternoon, when Berkshire announced it will acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home Corp. in an all-cash deal worth about $6.8 billion. Which means that after the deal, Berkshire still has $390 billion in T-bills collecting about 3.5%. 

The offer of $72.50 per common share represents a 24% premium to the home builder’s latest closing price on Friday. The deal is expected to close in the second half of this year.

Taylor Morrison is one of the largest community developers and homebuilders in the US and also offers financial services like home loans, titles, escrow and insurance to consumers, according to the statement. The firm has more than 350 communities across 12 states. The existing Taylor Morrison management team, including Chief Executive Officer Sheryl Palmer, will continue to lead the firm, according to the statement.

“We are excited to welcome Taylor Morrison into Berkshire’s portfolio,” Greg Abel, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway, said in a statement Sunday. “Over time, we expect to unify our site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform enabling us to deliver the dream of homeownership to more Americans.”

This is the first multibillion-dollar acquisition under Abel, who took over Berkshire Hathaway earlier this year after Warren Buffett retired last year.  While investors have been satisfied with Abel’s command over the sprawling conglomerate, some have been hoping that a deal could support Berkshire’s shares, which fell 5.6% so far this year, largely due to Berkshire's lack of exposure to the AI bubble. The S&P 500 index gained 10.7% in the same period.

It is unclear if the deal signals that Abel believes the bottom for the US housing market is coming, or if Berkshire is buying a homebuilder during a brutal housing labor shortage, giving companies like Taylor Morrison operating leverage despite sky high mortgage rates. In any case, while millions of Americans have been hoping and praying that 8% mortgage will crash the housing market - which has never been more unaffordable - and allow them to enter at lower price, the investor with the biggest cash pile in history just bought a builder outright with cash from under the rug, as a three million home supply deficit clearly overrides the soaring cost of capital. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 17:40

Oil's Peace Dividend Is Real, But Normalization Is Not A Light Switch

Zero Hedge -

Oil's Peace Dividend Is Real, But Normalization Is Not A Light Switch

Authored by Stephen Innes via The Dark Side Of The Boom,

  • Markets can remove geopolitical risk premium far faster than physical energy systems can recover.

  • The real post-war story may be strategic reserve rebuilding rather than simply falling oil prices.

  • Canada's emerging Pacific LNG corridor highlights how Asia is increasingly seeking supply routes that bypass Hormuz altogether.

  • The shift from efficiency to resilience could become one of the most important structural drivers of oil and LNG demand over the coming decade.

  • The U.S.-Iran war may eventually end, but the infrastructure and energy-security investments it triggers could shape global markets for years to come.

Normalization Is Not A Light Switch

The market is increasingly behaving as though the U.S.-Iran war is ending and the oil market is about to return to normal. I suspect that view is only half right. The war may indeed be moving toward its final chapters, but the physical energy system does not heal as quickly as financial markets.

Traders can reprice risk in minutes, while tankers, inventories, insurance markets, refinery supply chains, LNG terminals, pipelines, export infrastructure, and strategic reserves move on an entirely different clock. That distinction may ultimately become one of the defining energy trades of the next 12 months because while markets are already beginning to price the end of the conflict, they are nowhere close to pricing what comes next.

Financial markets are discounting machines. They do not wait for events to occur; they attempt to price conditions months into the future. Once traders become convinced that the probability of a prolonged disruption to the Hormuz disruption is fading, the risk premium embedded in crude prices begins to evaporate immediately. Long positions accumulated during the height of the conflict are reduced. Hedges are unwound. Volatility sellers return. Systematic funds reverse positioning.

The market begins trading the world it expects to exist rather than the one that exists today. That process is already underway, which is why crude can fall sharply long before the physical market has actually recovered. But reopening Hormuz and normalizing the oil market are two entirely different events, and I think investors are increasingly at risk of conflating them.

Think of the global energy system as a giant circulatory network. Hormuz is one of its major arteries. Reopening the artery is critical, but it does not instantly restore the patient's health. During the conflict, the world did not simply lose supply. It consumed inventories as a substitute for supply. According to the IEA, global oil inventories suffered extraordinary drawdowns as the crisis unfolded.

March alone saw roughly 129 million barrels disappear from storage, followed by another 117 million barrel draw in April. Combined, nearly a quarter billion barrels were removed from global stockpiles in just two months. At the same time, global supply losses reached an estimated 12.8 million barrels per day, while Gulf production remained roughly 14.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Those are not the statistics of a market that can simply flip a switch and return to equilibrium.

They are the statistics of a market that has been living off its emergency reserves.

That is why I believe many investors are focusing on the wrong milestone. The real question is not when Hormuz reopens. The real question is what happens after it reopens. Even if shipping resumes tomorrow, producers still need time to restore output. Tankers must be repositioned. Export schedules need rebuilding. Insurance markets require confidence that transit routes are secure. Refiners must recalibrate supply chains after months of operating under emergency conditions.

The entire logistical ecosystem needs time to regain rhythm. History consistently shows that restoring physical flows takes far longer than restoring access.

The tanker market itself offers an important clue. Many investors assume vessel traffic will immediately return to pre-war levels, but shipowners, insurers, cargo traders, and refiners are unlikely to behave with complete confidence simply because a ceasefire is announced. Months of elevated risk have changed behaviour. Insurance premiums remain elevated. Security assessments remain cautious. Commercial decisions tend to lag political headlines.

In fact, the first weeks following a reopening may actually produce temporary bottlenecks as vessels rush to move cargoes simultaneously. Freight rates could remain elevated even as crude prices fall, creating a market dynamic that appears contradictory on the surface but is entirely consistent with a system transitioning from crisis toward recovery. Markets may celebrate peace while the physical supply chain is still untangling months of disruption.

Yet even that may prove to be only the first chapter of the post-war story. The consensus view assumes that Asia will simply return to business as usual once the Hormuz reopens. I think that assumption misses the deeper lesson of this conflict. If there is one thing policymakers across Asia have learned over the past several months, it is that energy security can no longer be treated as a background issue.

Just as Europe never looked at Russian gas the same way after Ukraine, Asia may never look at its dependence on Middle Eastern energy the same way after Hormuz.

This is where I think the market is missing the next major theme entirely. Most investors are focused on falling oil prices, but the more important development may be what governments do after prices fall. The first phase of normalization is the removal of the geopolitical risk premium. The second phase is rebuilding commercial inventories. The third phase is strategic stockpiling.

The fourth phase is a multi-year energy-security buildout that could reshape energy demand and infrastructure investment across Asia for years to come. In other words, the market is pricing peace while potentially overlooking the structural consequences of the war itself.

For decades, governments optimized their energy systems for efficiency. Inventories were minimized. Storage costs were reduced. Supply chains were streamlined. The assumption was that global markets would always provide sufficient supply when needed. Hormuz shattered that assumption. Policymakers have now witnessed firsthand what happens when a single geopolitical chokepoint threatens the flow of energy to billions of people.

When governments experience a shock of that magnitude, they rarely conclude they need fewer reserves. They almost always conclude they need more.

China is perhaps the clearest example. Beijing was already expanding strategic petroleum reserves before the conflict, but the war has likely reinforced the urgency of that effort. Japan is expanding LNG storage capacity while reassessing its broader energy-security framework. South Korea is reviewing reserve policies and pursuing deeper regional energy cooperation. India continues expanding both crude storage and LNG import capacity.

Across Southeast Asia, governments are increasingly asking how many days of import protection they truly need in a world where energy security can disappear overnight.

But the story does not stop at inventories.

What makes this cycle different from previous oil shocks is that governments are increasingly responding not only by storing more energy but by redesigning how energy reaches them in the first place. The lesson many Asian policymakers appear to have taken from the U.S.-Iran war is that diversification is no longer simply an economic choice. It is becoming a national security requirement.

That realization is already beginning to reshape global energy infrastructure. For years, Canada possessed some of the world's largest natural gas reserves but lacked the infrastructure to export it efficiently to Asia. Western Canadian gas was largely trapped by geography, forced to flow south into North America rather than west across the Pacific. Today, that is changing.

The completion of Coastal GasLink and the launch of LNG Canada on British Columbia's Pacific Coast have created a direct energy corridor linking the Montney shale basin to Asian consumers. Additional projects such as Cedar LNG, Woodfibre LNG, and Ksi Lisims LNG could substantially expand Canada's export capacity over the coming decade.

The significance extends well beyond supply growth. A cargo leaving Kitimat reaches North Asia faster than many competing export routes and, more importantly, bypasses Hormuz entirely. For buyers in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, and Southeast Asia, that is becoming a strategic advantage rather than merely a logistical one. The market keeps asking when Middle Eastern supply returns. Policymakers are increasingly asking how to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern supply altogether.

Viewed through that lens, the post-war story is no longer simply about rebuilding inventories. It is about building redundancy. China is expanding storage. Japan is expanding LNG infrastructure. South Korea is strengthening energy-security partnerships. India is increasing import flexibility. Canada is building export capacity. Utilities across Asia are locking in longer-term supply agreements. The common thread is resilience.

In many respects, this resembles what happened after the 1973 oil embargo. The crisis itself eventually faded, but the infrastructure decisions it triggered lasted for decades. Strategic petroleum reserves were created. Pipelines were built. Storage facilities expanded. Import routes diversified. Energy policy changed permanently. The same process may now be unfolding across Asia.

The U.S.-Iran war may eventually fade from the headlines, but the infrastructure investments it has triggered could shape global energy flows for the next generation.

The result is that the next source of oil and gas demand may not come from consumers driving more or factories producing more. It may come from governments buying more. Every barrel that enters a strategic reserve is a barrel removed from the spot market. Every LNG cargo redirected to storage is unavailable for immediate consumption.

Viewed through that lens, reopening Hormuz may not immediately trigger the inventory rebuild many traders expect because governments themselves could become among the largest buyers in the market. The same countries that spent the war drawing down inventories may now spend years rebuilding and expanding them.

The LNG side of the equation may be even more significant. Unlike crude oil, LNG inventories are generally smaller and less flexible. Many Asian economies maintain relatively limited emergency gas reserves. The experience of both the European gas crisis and the disruption in Hormuz has accelerated discussions around strategic LNG storage, additional regasification terminals, expanded reserve facilities, diversified import infrastructure, and longer-term supply agreements.

The conversation is no longer simply about securing the cheapest molecule. It is increasingly about securing the most reliable one.

There is another layer that markets may be overlooking. The coming decade is expected to see enormous growth in electricity demand driven by AI infrastructure, data centres, semiconductor manufacturing, and digital industrialization. Across much of Asia, LNG is expected to remain a critical bridge fuel supporting that expansion. Governments are not merely trying to secure energy for today's economy. They are increasingly trying to secure energy for tomorrow's AI economy.

Strategic stockpiling, infrastructure expansion, and structural demand growth may soon be pointing in the same direction.

This is why I remain cautious about the simplistic view that oil will simply collapse back to pre-war levels and stay there. Yes, the geopolitical risk premium can disappear quickly. Yes, tanker traffic can improve. Yes, physical flows can recover.

But simultaneously, inventories must be rebuilt, strategic reserves expanded, LNG security frameworks strengthened, storage facilities constructed, pipelines developed, export routes diversified, and governments across Asia will seek redundancy where previously they sought efficiency. The irony is that the market is currently celebrating the potential end of the war while largely ignoring the structural demand it may have created.

Ultimately, I think the market is still looking at this through a trader's lens, when it should increasingly look at it through a policymaker's lens. Traders see peace and immediately calculate how much risk premium can be extracted from the barrel. Governments see the same peace and begin calculating how many additional barrels and LNG cargoes they need to secure before the next crisis arrives. Those are not the same calculations, and they point toward very different futures.

That is why I believe the oil market is entering a far more complicated phase than many investors appreciate. The peace dividend may arrive quickly. The normalization dividend may take months. But the energy-security dividend, driven by reserve rebuilding, strategic stockpiling, LNG infrastructure expansion, pipeline development, and a region-wide reassessment of supply vulnerability, may take years to fully unfold.

By the time markets recognize that distinction, the next great source of energy demand may already be underway. The U.S.-Iran war may be ending, but the race to secure energy for the next one may just be beginning.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 17:30

What Are Americans Most Worried About?

Zero Hedge -

What Are Americans Most Worried About?

Statista’s Consumer Insights survey has been tracking which issues adults in the United States consider to be the most important in the country right now, and how they have shifted over time.

The following chart, via Statista's Anna Fleck, provides just a snapshot of these, listing the eight most cited concerns out of a possible 20 options, in the most recent survey wave as well as in the survey wave at the start of the pandemic.

 What the U.S. Is Most Worried About | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Where health and social security came first in the earlier iteration, likely in reference to Covid-19, it had dropped by eight percentage points by 2025/26.

In the meantime, inflation and the cost of living has risen from third position to first position (+9 p.p).

Other notable changes include a drop in the share of people citing immigration in the latest wave and an increase in the share of people picking housing (previously in rank 14 at 22 percent).

Six of the eight most recent most pressing issues are social, with the sole environmental topic of climate change having dropped off the list, coming in 14th position with 23 percent of respondents picking it, following issues such as education (rank nine), corruption (rank 10) and food and water security (rank 11).

As this chart shows, poverty is now on the minds of more U.S. adults, at least more imminently, than before.

Where it had previously tied in 9th position with education in 2019/20 with a 32 percent share of respondents picking it as one the most important issues facing the country at that time, the share had risen to 33 percent in the latest survey wave.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 16:55

Fighting While Talking, Horses And Security

Zero Hedge -

Fighting While Talking, Horses And Security

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Fighting While Talking, Horses, and Security

Some quick updates on recent themes. The latest on Iran is front and center, and if you missed this week’s Around the World, it is worth a look. Not just an Iran update, but we also cover Cuba, Russia/Ukraine, the China Summit, and Nigeria (I certainly need to get more up to speed on Africa). We will examine Universal Basic Income and the Job Market in the section we have decided to label Horses. While it feels like we’ve been talking about ProSec in one shape or form for well over a year (because we have), rather than getting “long in the tooth” it is just starting to get traction.

Fighting While Talking

The definition of “ceasefire” is what both sides make of it. It is easy to think of a “ceasefire” as being as simple as both sides “cease firing” at each other, but that is not how it works in the real world.

The concept of continuing attacks (typically but not always limited in scope) while discussing agreements has gone on since people first started picking up rocks and throwing them at each other. From a U.S. perspective, it was an explicit policy of Nixon and Kissinger when dealing with North Vietnam. Negotiate in Paris. Bomb away in Vietnam.

As the much anticipated announcement after Friday’s “situation room” meeting failed to materialize, we are reading of reports of Iran attacking U.S. bases in Kuwait. This, of course, from an Iranian perspective, is in response to some U.S. attacks last week in Bandar Abbas and in the Strait of Hormuz.

We can only assume negotiations are ongoing, as neither side seems prepared to go back to a higher level of military activity, so this is merely both sides reminding the other that they could go that way, if they wanted to.

Also, from our GIG, it has become very clear that the U.S. blockade of the Strait surprised Iran and created leverage that the initial military attacks had not.

The only thing I can say about the negotiations is that I think most people have become, at best, tired of the endless stream of “we are close” announcements. We’ve lost track of how many times markets have rallied on such announcements (often, but not always in the form of social media posts). At worst, there is a cynicism growing that the announcements are merely political attention-seeking moments, coupled with an “opportunity” to trade. The number of people who immediately search the prediction market sites, or look for large trades in oil or stock futures to see if there is some sort of “confirmation” that the headline is new and real, is almost staggering.

While the front end of the crude oil futures market (which is not the same contract as when this war started) responds very well to peace deal announcements, the longer end of the curve is not as responsive. I’ve been picking the January 2027 WTI contract because it is WTI (so it benefits from U.S. energy independence and it is 2027). It is still $77. Below its high of $83, but not much below. It didn’t get above $77 for the first time until late March. This was below $60 prior to the war. I guess this is a long-winded way of saying Higher For Longer On Energy Prices.

The consensus is that we will not see serious re-escalation, but both the U.S. and Iran seem to be having difficulty in framing a deal as a victory (Iran, because it has been hit hard, and the U.S. because we seem to have moved a long way from “unconditional surrender”).

The one thing that I think is starting to sink in is that higher for longer on energy is real, even with a deal, and that is problematic for a world struggling with affordability.

Horses

What the heck are we talking about horses for? What do horses have to do with anything, let alone AI? We have seen commencement speeches where college graduates have booed the mention of AI. We had the rather unfortunate (in my opinion) term “lower value human capital” enter the lexicon. My editors cringe at some of the things I write and say, but wow!

Not surprisingly, we have seen many in the industry downplay the risks to jobs. Even some leaders who until recently had predicted job losses, especially for white-collar employees, reversed course and are now predicting hiring based on increased efficiencies.

I think the jury is still out on this. There are some examples that I’ve seen that seem to indicate the potential for employment growth.

  • One story I’ve seen, but didn’t track down for the report is “AI’s ability to analyze X-rays has led to more radiologists.” Seems plausible and certainly fits the efficiency story (though there may be other reasons we have more radiologists).
  • Another report that was circulated, and that I found on social media, discussed how the number of tellers in the U.S. rose even with the introduction of ATMs. You can find the post on Twitter by searching for AI ATM Tellers. This was passed around as an example of how people (tellers in this case) adapt to new technology and become more efficient. The reason I did not include a link to this idea is because I think it is quite flawed and did not feel like starting a fight. It did not normalize for a large growth in the number of people working in the U.S. during the phase that ATMs were rolled out, presumably creating greater need for banking. It didn’t discuss that during the first 20 years of the ATM, the GDP of the U.S. quintupled. It was also a period where suburbia grew. I would argue that if you controlled for the number of people who needed accounts, the increasing complexity of personal finances, and the shift in population, this probably more than accounts for why tellers didn’t fare as badly as initially feared with the introduction of ATMs. Anyway, I’ve ranted too much on this subject, but I think it is important that we think critically about what various technologies have or have not done for employment.

Buggy whip manufacturers. If you take an introductory business school class you will likely hear about the “plight” of buggy whip manufacturers.

A great business until the advent of the automobile. The automobile, over a relatively short period of time, destroyed this business. But the automobile was great! The automobile companies did spectacularly well! (Though many of the early, even well-known ones failed, but that is a concept for another day). The country did well as the automobile (and trucking) reshaped the economy for the better! Isn’t this the perfect example of how a new, efficient technology drives growth and jobs as a whole, even if some sectors lose?

  • But what about the horses? According to Grok, there were over 25 million horses and mules in the U.S. around 1920. The “horses” were “employed” on farms and for urban transport. Recent estimates put the horse population at under 7 million today. Now, the horses that are alive today are mostly for recreation, sport, and breeding, rather than working. Far fewer horses today, but those horses that are around live the life of Riley compared to what their ancestors lived.
    • If AI is like what automobiles were to humans, we are in for a great ride!
    • If AI is like what automobiles were to horses, we could be in some trouble, though those left working should be in great shape!
      • I’m probably more in the first camp, but this technology seems very different (or maybe it just seems very different as it is applied directly in areas I know and deal with?). I don’t want to think that we might be the first population that is “creating our own extinction event,” but I have read too much sci-fi to keep that thought completely at bay.

In any case, if anyone reading this can even entertain these thoughts, you know that politicians will try to find ways to capture that animosity. My assumption is that the “control group” of people reading the T-Report are all exploring AI. All trying to figure out how to use it. Many, including myself and Academy Securities, are benefiting from the growth of AI. Data centers, AI, and chips are a core part of ProSec but I can see the rising angst playing out in real time.

Politicians interfering with the industry may become a risk to growth and profitability. It isn’t there yet (this admin is extremely supportive of not just the AI growth, but also the electricity generation and transmission to power the industry). Which might be the perfect time to bring up this little section, that doesn’t quite fit into this theme directly, but seems relevant.

  • Keep an eye on South Korea. We are seeing a wave of “AI bonuses” being paid. This is being paid to employees of companies who are doing well because of the boom in AI and data centers (chips, memory etc.). That is the “norm” in the U.S. but sounds like it is unusual in South Korea. The stories probably wouldn’t have attracted my attention at all, since it is so logical from a U.S. perspective, but this is a country that just a couple of weeks ago had started to see political figures discuss paying the citizens from the profits/tax revenues generated by the AI success story – which seems like a potential “slippery slope” way of introducing Universal Basic Income (UBI). Or I guess if you are an advocate of UBI, the potential launching point for a much-needed wealth redistribution.

I recently spoke at a conference for risk management (primarily for large financial institutions). I discussed with the conference organizer the number of AI, cyber, and agentic AI presentations. It seemed like about half the conference was focused on those subjects. The organizer confirmed that was correct and was about the same as the prior year, when they really made a big effort to steer the conference in that direction. What was interesting though was that in 2025, the audience was enthusiastic to learn so much. That it was a relatively new area and the topic resonated. While they have yet to receive final feedback from this year’s conference, the initial feedback was that people wanted case studies and examples, not just high-level perspectives. Everyone knows and is trying to use these technologies (at work and at home). No one needs to be told how important they are. How rapidly they are growing. Just take one look at the stock market and you know that. What people wanted to know this year is how the heck are people using them and what is their experience! I found that interesting and it resonates with me, as I’m probably in that same camp. Some successes mixed with sometimes wondering why I bothered trying AI in the first place. I don’t know what this shift means, but it is interesting (and may explain why AI trainers are getting paid boatloads of money ).

If this seems a little more like thinking out loud than having a strong opinion, that’s because it probably is. But thinking out loud seems like a good way to get our hands around this amazing evolution.

Going Production for Security

We finished a great week of meetings in London this past week. I heard a little bit too much about “defense” bonds and a little too little about ProSec bonds for my tastes (Mike Rodriguez, Academy’s Head of Sustainable Finance, has a great deck on the concept). I’m just kidding about that (not the deck, which is great, but that I heard too much about defense bonds).

Europe is shifting towards security and resiliency rapidly

We could drone on and on about how much things have changed in Europe’s positioning on ESG and how quickly they are moving to something that aligns itself with ProSec but it is the end of a short, but tricky week in markets, so we won’t belabor you with details.
What we will do, instead, is present what Treasury Secretary Bessent (@SecScottBessent) put out in a tweet on Friday (the bold is my handiwork):

  • For too long, our political class treated efficiency as a substitute for resilience, and consumption as a measure of prosperity.
  • Trade policy, industrial capacity, and national security are inseparable. And to allow foreign dependencies to degrade any one of those domains is to allow them to define America’s future. Under @POTUS’ leadership, we are rebuilding domestic production to restore American sovereignty.

I admit there is a lot of politics in his statement, more than I would like, but it does highlight and encapsulate more of what we have been saying and writing about on ProSec.

I do think there is a LOT MORE ROOM to work with close allies and neighbors than this statement hints at, but that will evolve over time, even with the current administration.

In a fireside chat with the CEO of a player in the energy industry, I latched on to the concept that Canada of all places, might be given one of the rare opportunities for a “do over.” Say 15 years ago, both the U.S. and Canada were well positioned to grow their LNG business. The U.S. did so and is reaping the dividends from that! Canada got mired in regulation and has been pretty much left in the starting blocks. But now, with the world looking for alternatives to the Middle East, Canada has been given another chance to get out of the gate and try to take advantage of the shifting needs.

While I already chafe, a little, at the U.S. admin’s rhetoric that comes across as America Only, that is not how Europe sees it. In part Europe doesn’t have an abundance of all the natural resources they might need, so they will be forced to work with trusted partners. The U.S. can and will be a part of that, but semantics and talking points do matter over time. New alliances will be formed or solidified and there is a great opportunity, across the globe, to join in the ProSec theme (I almost said movement, because that is a bit political, but…)

  • Here is a link to ProSec 2026 if you haven’t seen it or want a refresh.
  • If you have interest in seeing our thoughts on the framework for a ProSec Bond, feel free to reach out to your coverage officer at Academy.

We are in the early stages of shifting from one stable order (rules-based with China flaunting the rules, to another, with more (but not total) independence). See Molotov Cocktails.

Bottom Line

This coming week we should:

  • Learn more about the status between the U.S. and Iran. In either case, I think the higher for longer theme for energy prices will sink in and start to price itself into markets even more than it already has.
  • Get some more clarity on the job market (within the kind of insanely large margins for error that we just somehow learn to deal with).

I’m sticking with the view that we have a tale of two economies: the AI, data center, and chip economy vs the Affordability economy. They are intertwined, with some degree of overlap.

  • The AI/Data Center/Chip economy is okay for jobs for now (the building of data centers and the infrastructure to support them creates a lot of jobs). It has been GREAT for stock market indices.
  • The affordability economy is a drag on some consumption and confidence. This part of the economy is sucking more households into it, here and abroad, and that is not good.

Bond yields have dropped in the past week, which has been good and in no small part has been helped by the ongoing barrage of “open the Strait” headlines.

I expect that to reverse course as we are near the bottom end of the range on 10s and I am now fully in the camp that 10s hit 5% before they hit 4%. Any effort to cut rates by the Fed, given the current state of economic data, would likely end up in higher long-end bond yields, because it is increasingly difficult to come up with a narrative to support a cut. That is a very different view than I had before the war started (and some big headline NFP job numbers were released).

It would be nice to get some resolution with Iran so we can move back to all the usual uncertainties like spending, jobs, AI, inflation, the Fed, etc.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 16:20

The New Yorker Thinks Patriotism Is "Problematic"

Zero Hedge -

The New Yorker Thinks Patriotism Is "Problematic"

In a meandering essay name dropping every dress-to-impress academic figure from Voltaire to Alexis de Tocqueville to Howard Zinn, The New Yorker has set out on a quest to explain how the progressive left can essentially despise the country they live in the name of social justice, while also adopting the perks of "patriotism" so they can own the Chuds.

The publication throws around some curious stats and asserts that patriotism is on the decline because, as they argue, patriotism today requires people to be blind to the injustices of the past.  They note:

"...We seem to be in a down moment. A Gallup poll found that, in the past dozen years, the percentage of people in the U.S. who say that they’re “extremely proud to be American” has plunged by sixteen points. A recent Harris poll noted that roughly four in ten Americans have considered relocating outside the country, with younger Americans even more inclined..."

"Last May, Newsweek published an article with the melancholy headline “Why Dual Citizenship Is the New American Dream.” Some commentators ascribe this to financial prudence, but the trend dates back at least to 2016 and the election of Donald Trump..."

Trump, the ever present and useful bogeyman, is obviously to blame.  The New Yorker, of course, glosses over the fact that the majority of the people who feel "less patriotic" in that Gallup poll are Democrats who are highly indoctrinated by establishment media to obsess over "historical injustices."  The outlet applauds the decline, in a way.  It's rooted in the same old DEI and 1619 Project talking points that the woke media has been peddling for over a decade. 

"Patriotism just isn’t cool anymore. Wokeness, having rightly called attention to racial and gender injustices long endemic to American life, helped chill the left’s admiration for the nation..."    

"Ours is a complicated history, made more tortuous by race. Some five hundred Indigenous nations lived here before the first enslaved Africans arrived, in 1619 - a year before the first Pilgrims. That, too, is American history, along with Reconstruction, Jim Crow, segregation, the Great Migration, Black anger, Black humor, and Black culture. This isn’t wokeness; it’s fact. 

Trump’s America has the virtue of simplicity: no initial divisions; no loyalists and patriots, or Native peoples and settlers, or Federalists and Anti-Federalists. He’s not bothered by labor unrest, unfair imprisonment, white-nationalist undercurrents..."

Yes, it is wokeness, and The New Yorker cites some "facts" but as usual they don't tell the whole truth.  It's an approximation of history (using cherry-picked facts) based on the political left's own convenient narratives.  For example, they make no mention of the fact that some of the very first slave owners in US history were black.  Nor do they mention that there were at least 3775 black slave owners in the American South in 1830 and up to 6000 black slave owners by the time the Civil War kicked off. 

They don't mention that the vast majority of the African slaves present in the American colonies were captured and sold by other Africans.  No, leftists can't handle that kind of truth, or they deny it, which is why they can never be patriots.

And why not talk about the uglier side of the indigenous tribes, many of which brutalized and enslaved each other long before the first white man ever set foot on the continent?  Why not mention the rape, genocide and cannibalism common among these groups?  Why not mention that when white settlers arrived, many American Indian tribes sought the protection of Europeans from other indians?

Well, The New Yorker doesn't talk about that because these facts undermine the entire foundation of far-left propaganda:  That the white man is the cause of all the world's problems. 

In reality, every group of people and every race around the globe has committed brutal acts of conquest and slavery.  No one is innocent.  Everyone is guilty.  White people were just the first group to put an end to it all.

But what is patriotism?  That is the question The New Yorker seems to ponder, though what they are really asking is:  "Who gets to define patriotism?"  This is the only thing leftists care about, because the power to define is the power to control.  And they want to control everything.  

For example, the publication harps on once again about the "horrors" of January 6th, and labels it a criminal attack masquerading as an act of patriotism.  Again, no mention of the numerous federal agents planted in the crowd to lead protesters into the building, and no mention of the Capitol Police using tear gas and rubber bullets to anger the crowd into violence. 

"What to my mind isn’t patriotism, though it was sometimes couched as such, was the behavior of the assembled throng that, on January 6, 2021, stormed the U.S. Capitol to prevent Congress from certifying the 2020 election. Awful as it was, it felt less like an insurrection than like an ugly mob bent on destruction and self-display..."

It's interesting that The New Yorker has such a distaste for the J6 "mob" while lavishing BLM with praise and defending the riots as a proud display of righteous rebellion.  Those mobs were far more destructive and killed numerous people.  All the J6 crowd did was break some windows, walk into the Capitol Building and leave an hour later.      

The New Yorker's examination is not nuanced or complex at all.  It pretends to be, but it is incredibly simplistic:  If you are a hardcore conservative, a traditionalist, a nationalist, an advocate for controlled immigration, an opponent of DEI, or a MAGA voter, you are "not a patriot."  Why?  Because the left says so.  Because they want to dictate the terms of patriotism and if they can't, then patriotism has to go.        

Traditionally in America it has always been the real patriots that get to define what patriotism is.  It's about the people who want to preserve America's founding principles, not rewrite them or erase them in the name of "modernity."  The people who understand that some values are eternal and remain relevant regardless of technological progress or the tides of political correctness. 

It's about loving one's country, not merely tolerating it until you can tear it down in the name of building something you think is better.     

Compared to America's overall accomplishments, the perceived historical "missteps" are meaningless.  They do not matter.  Slavery is irrelevant.  The wars against the native tribes and the "stolen land" are irrelevant.  Jim Crow is irrelevant. Leftists can stew in these past events all they like, but that's not going to win them any points in determining America's future path.    

And this is a reality that woke adherents will never accept, because they are not patriots, they are deconstructionists.  Their goal is to dismantle the western world, and America by extension.  Which means, they conveniently turn a microscope on the portions of US history that are considered oppressive by today's standards and harness those examples as a weapon to attack and dismantle the country as it exists now.  The US is a country increasingly looking to pull back from the brink of progressive revisionism, and they don't like that.

So, activist entities like The New Yorker turn to gaslighting.  For them, history is nothing more than a Molotov Cocktail.  They burn down the past in order to dictate the present.  They clamor to co-opt the American ideal, but they don't actually care about it.  They want to wear it as a skin suit while they dismantle it.  True patriotism is beyond their comprehension.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 15:45

America's LNG Boom Is Real - But China Is Planning Beyond It

Zero Hedge -

America's LNG Boom Is Real - But China Is Planning Beyond It

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

  • The Iran war and Hormuz disruption have turbocharged U.S. LNG exports, giving Washington a major short-term energy dominance boost as Asia and Europe scramble for alternative supply.

  • China, however, enters the crisis from a position of greater energy resilience after years of investment in domestic production.

  • The U.S. still has a major long-term opportunity, but sustaining dominance will require turning crisis-driven demand into lasting partnerships.

The Iran war has handed the United States a rare opportunity: a new dawn of energy dominance in an increasingly fractured world. With coordinated US-Israeli strikes disrupting the Strait of Hormuz from late February, roughly 20% of global LNG supply has been stripped from the market since early March. Prices have surged across Asia and Europe. And into that vacuum, American gas has flowed.

The numbers speak for themselves. US LNG exports to Asia jumped sharply in April, with nearly a quarter of all American cargoes heading to a region that simply cannot afford to go dark. Deals are being signed, pipelines planned, and $100 billion in private investment is pouring into liquefaction plants and terminals, putting the US on a trajectory toward 220 MTPA of export capacity within five years. The administration's energy dominance agenda, backed by promises to streamline permitting, has given producers a powerful political tailwind and reassured global buyers seeking reliability. Washington's case for American LNG has never been easier to make.

But dominance built on a crisis is not the same as dominance built on trust. And there is a competitor watching this moment very carefully.

China entered this crisis in a structurally different position. Two decades of sustained investment in domestic energy production, spanning generation, storage, and distribution, have left Beijing considerably less exposed to the supply shocks rattling Western and Asian markets alike. Its economy has not been immune, but it has been buffered. That resilience has not gone unnoticed by governments scrambling to explain surging energy bills to their populations. While the US capitalises on the immediate demand surge, China is quietly accumulating something more durable: the perception of strategic foresight.

Yet beneath the boom lies a fault line. The conflict has been a short-term windfall for American producers; cash is flowing and the geopolitical case for US LNG writes itself. But the longer the crisis persists, the more urgently governments around the world will prioritise the same fundamental objective: never being held hostage to a single chokepoint again. The Hormuz disruption has concentrated minds in a way that years of energy dialogues have never quite managed. Countries across Asia and Europe are now accelerating plans to diversify supply sources, build strategic reserves, and develop domestic generation capacity across every available technology. The goal is insulation from the kind of shock this war has delivered, and that shift in priorities will outlast the conflict itself, because the memory of this vulnerability will not fade quickly.

This does not mean the window for American gas has closed. The transition to more resilient, independent energy systems will take decades, and reliable LNG from a powerful economy is precisely what energy-hungry Asian economies need throughout that journey. The US has the reserves, the infrastructure, the financial markets, and the geopolitical credibility that no other supplier can currently match. But Washington cannot afford to mistake a crisis-driven demand surge for a permanent structural advantage, because what buyers are ultimately building toward is a system in which no single disruption, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or anywhere else, can send their economies into shock again. The US needs to be architected into that system as an indispensable partner, not treated as an emergency option.

That requires more than competitive pricing and export capacity. It requires the kind of long-term supply relationships, infrastructure partnerships, and government-to-government commitments that turn a transaction into a dependency, the good kind, built on reliability rather than vulnerability. It requires Washington to show up as a strategic partner invested in the energy security of its buyers. And it requires the Iran conflict to reach a resolution that restores stability to global flows, because sustained disruption ultimately accelerates the very diversification strategies that could reduce the world's reliance on any single fuel source.

That is why forums like Gastech matter far beyond the conference floor. At Gastech 2025 in Milan, a high-profile US delegation led by Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum used the event to demonstrate Washington's commitment to the global market and deepen long-term partnerships with European buyers. This September, the same strategic imperative shifts to Asia, as Gastech convenes ministers, industry CEOs, and technology leaders in Bangkok around the urgent supply security and resilience priorities now defining the global energy agenda. Bangkok demands the same level of engagement, but with even greater stakes. Positioned at the heart of the world's fastest-growing demand region, it is where the contracts signed today will shape the architecture of energy relationships for the next decade. It is where the US can arrive not only as the world's largest LNG exporter, but as the partner that helped Asia build the resilient, diversified, and secure energy systems its economies need, with American technology, American capital, and American gas at the centre of that architecture.

The use of energy as a diplomatic instrument, as a foundation for alliances and a signal of long-term intent, has already demonstrated its capacity to stabilise relationships and strengthen the position of reliable partners. But leverage only holds if buyers believe the relationship will endure beyond the current emergency. And that is ultimately what is being decided right now: whether the world organises its energy future around American reliability, or looks elsewhere for the security guarantees it needs.

American energy dominance is real, and the Iran war has made that case powerfully. But dominance has to be earned continuously, through the infrastructure being built, the contracts being signed, and the diplomatic relationships being deepened, conference room by conference room, deal by deal. The window is open. What matters now is how Washington chooses to use it.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 14:00

Did Iran Get Its Hands On A US Stealth Missile? JASSM-ER Wreckage Sparks Reverse-Engineering Fears

Zero Hedge -

Did Iran Get Its Hands On A US Stealth Missile? JASSM-ER Wreckage Sparks Reverse-Engineering Fears

The U.S. committed nearly its entire stockpile of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles to the military campaign against Iran and has fired at least 1,000 of these long-range, stealthy, precision cruise missiles to hit high-value IRGC targets.

One of the unavoidable risks of deploying advanced weapons, such as the JASSM-ER, is that unexploded or partially intact systems can fall into enemy hands, allowing adversaries to study U.S. technology, refine countermeasures, and accelerate the development of copycat versions.

A new report from Army Recognition, citing defense journalist Babak Taghvaee, claims Iran has recovered wreckage from a JASSM-ER near Arak, potentially giving Tehran access to fragments of the missile.

"The recovered debris reportedly includes composite airframe sections, structural components, propulsion fragments, and possible avionics elements that could reveal insights into stealth construction, fuel-efficient propulsion, and survivability design," according to the military blog.

Army Recognition cited images posted on X by Taghvaee showing what is described as badly damaged JASSM-ER wreckage recovered in Iran. The missile appears largely intact and possibly unexploded, which, if confirmed, would give Tehran higher-value intelligence on the advanced missile.

This incident is reminiscent of a similar one in 2011, when Iran captured a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel stealth spy drone and claimed to have reverse-engineered the aircraft. Tehran later displayed and tested drones modeled on the RQ-170, including the Shahed-171/Simorgh and Shahed-191/Saegheh families.

Reuters reported in 2014 that Iran claimed a domestically built copy of the RQ-170 had flown.

Today, Iran is one of the leading manufacturers of suicide Shahed drones (besides Russia and Ukraine), which have wreaked havoc on U.S. military bases and allied countries. The U.S. is also ramping up its version of these drones called "Lucas."

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 13:25

"It's All So Tiresome": UK's Social Media Ban Trudges Ever Onward

Zero Hedge -

"It's All So Tiresome": UK's Social Media Ban Trudges Ever Onward

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

The UK government’s “consultation” on social media harm is over, and – brace yourselves – it turns out they’re going to have to do something about it.

I know, I was shocked too.

The main talking point is that “social media is like cigarettes”. Everyone is saying that, it’s the meme of the day.

It’s a sentiment originally taken from a new report submitted to the consultation by the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges.

Titled “Growing up in an online world”, it contains this hilarious line in the foreword:

…there is, I think, an overwhelming consensus that excessive screen time can harm children and young people and we need to call this out unflinchingly rather than passively wait for someone else to prove causation”.

Which is a pretty neat summary of how our political system works in general, and certainly in this case: We don’t know if there’s even a problem yet, but by God we’re gonna do something about it.

That the something they end up doing makes them rich and powerful is just one of the curious coincidences tyrants can always rely on.

{Sidenote: This morning the BBC had “Overwhelimg consensus” in their headline on this story, but at some point the absurdity of that quote was realised, and the headline changed. Now there’s this disclaimer near the end: “There is no consensus among the wider scientific community that screen time overall is harmful to children.” Funny stuff.}

Elsewhere, the report wails about “a wave of radicalized children” who pose “a real risk to society”, and calls social media “an incredibly powerful and uncontrolled commercial detriment to health”.

In a similar vein, The Guardian is warning of a “tsunami of harm”, and has assembled an all-star cast of interested parties to talk up the scariness of social media meanness.

After meeting with “bereaved parents” earlier today, Keir Starmer has “vowed to take action”.

His potential rival for the leadership has been even more vocal. Political eunuch and leadership hopeful Wes Streeting is all over this, campaigning hard to be the next disposable suit full of bugger all to “lead the country”:

He thinks a ban should be “just the start”:

Social media should be treated like tobacco – it’s extremely addictive, bad for our health, and big tech is borrowing the big tobacco playbook to avoid regulation. We’ve got to give our children their childhood back […] A ban for under-16s must be the start, not the end […]We have given the pen to tech moguls to write our future for us. It’s time to take the pen back.”

Streeting is an idiot whose ambition outweighs his intellect by a factor of ten, and who clearly doesn’t understand the rules of the game he’s playing.

Some political handler behind the scenes probably told him to go hard on this issue because it will make him look tough and assertive, but the likely truth is he’s being wheeled out as the extreme option so a “sensible middle ground” option – probably Andy Burnham – can enforce “common sense policies”.

What will those policies be? It doesn’t really matter, but we’ll get to that.

Technology Secretary Liz Kendall, notable only for garnering less than 5% of the vote in the 2015 leadership election, is out there promising “action”:

…they haven’t decided what “action” yet, exactly but it’s definitely going to happen.

The Guardian has a handy list to choose from, including but not limited to:

– social media bans
– “digital curfews”
– “function limitations”
– age gating “addictive features”
– protecting children from personalised algorithms
– enforcing screen time limits.

Which one will it be?

Well let me answer that question with another question – Who cares?

The powers that be certainly don’t.

This is very much an “any colour you want so long as it’s black” situation.

Choose an outright ban – “Great, please submit your ID to prove you’re over 16 and exempt from the social media ban.”

Choose screen time limits – “Great, please submit your ID to prove you’re over 16 and exempt from screen time limitations.”

Choose digital curfews – “Great, please submit your ID to prove you’re over 16 and exempt from the digital curfew.”

Since all the proposed measures rely on age verification for enforcement, they all achieve the end goal: No more online anonymity, for kids or adults alike.

Debating the list is pointless, and making a choice counterproductive. It’s like choosing the colour of your electric chair: It makes no difference to the end result, but your entirely cosmetic choice lends tacit approval of the whole process.

We all know where this is going: Age gating everything, everywhere and then – eventually – digital ID.

It’s just…

…and you’re left wondering, who is this even for?

What is the point of this worn-out, unenthusiastic propaganda?

We know what they’re going to do, they have said they’re going to do it, and still they feel the need to play out this performative umming and erring.

Just get on with it.

All the people who don’t believe them will NEVER believe them, and all the poor fools who do believe them will always believe them.

So why carry on this absurd pretense?

It’s like when you’re watching a really dull movie – one that has telegraphed its “clever twist” in the first ten minutes – but is still insisting on dragging out the run time for two more hours of what the writers evidently consider skillful foreshadowing.

Or when you get a call from an unknown number, and some eager breathless voice announces “this is not a sales call”, before launching into a fifteen minute speech about double glazing or solar panels, and you’re just waiting for a pause long enough to say “no thanks”, and hang up.

It is a sales call, and you’ve known that from the beginning, and they know you know, but they can’t stop talking because then you’ll leave. They have to keep talking because they know you’re not listening.

So maybe that’s the answer. Maybe they can’t take a breath because people will hang up.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 08:10

More Mystery Drone Incidents In EU Skies As Putin Mocks: "The Russians Are Coming!"

Zero Hedge -

More Mystery Drone Incidents In EU Skies As Putin Mocks: "The Russians Are Coming!"

Flights at Germany's Munich Airport were once again temporarily suspended on Saturday after a drone sighting was reported, eliciting a response from a large number of police and security services personnel.

Euronews reviews in the wake of the incident, which ended with the key European hub resuming regular operations after no UAV was found or identified, "Munich Airport closed twice within 24 hours in October following suspected drone sightings."

This is the latest in a months-long spate of similar air traffic disruptions due to mysterious reported drone incursions, with European officials frequently voicing suspicions of a Russian sabotage and disruption campaign of EU airspace.

Getty Images/Bloomberg

But the biggest incident this week happened in Romania, where local officials described that during the Russian military's assault on Ukraine Thursday night, a Russian drone slammed into the residential building in the southeastern city of Galati - resulting in an explosion and a fire that injured two people.

The Romanian Foreign Affairs Ministry condemned the "grave and irresponsible escalation from Russia" while further declaring it has issued formal request for more anti-drone defense measures from NATO.

"Romania has informed allies and NATO's secretary-general about the circumstances and requested measures to accelerate the transfer of anti-drone capabilities to Romania," the ministry said.

While Romania and other countries which border Ukraine have witnessed 'errant' drones and missiles come across the border before, this was the first time Romania in particular has suffered casualties as a result of a projectile hitting a densely populated city or area.

President Putin himself has weighed in, demanding that forensic proof that this was indeed a Russian drone - and not a Ukrainian one - be handed over to the Kremlin for an investigation.

He also used the opportunity in Friday remarks to highlight that Russia is always blamed for any and all drone incursions into European airspace due to Russiaphobia. Putin said according to TASS:

Ukrainian drones have previously entered the airspace of various countries, and initial reports consistently claimed it was "a Russian attack," President Vladimir Putin said in response to a TASS question about the drone incident in Romania.

"We know that Ukrainian drones have flown into Finland, Poland, and several Baltic states. The initial reaction was exactly the same as it is now in Romania. 'Oh no, the Russians are coming, it’s a Russian attack!'" Putin recalled.

While the Russian leader was being deeply ironic with his 'the Russians are coming' comment, it is true that just earlier this month NATO jets were scrambled over Estonia and shot down an errant Ukrainian-origin drone which had drifted into Baltic/EU airspace.

"We apologize to Estonia and all our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents," a Ukrainian government statement had acknowledged. "We have been and remain in close cooperation through our specialized institutions to get to the heart of the matter in each case and seek ways to prevent them, including through the direct engagement of our expert groups."

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry then deflected, calling attention to Russian actions: "Moscow does this on purpose, together with intensified propaganda," it said.

As for the spate of mystery UAV sightings over Northern and Western Europe, it's anyone's guess as to the origins. Some pundits have suggested these are merely irresponsible hobbyists, or else pranksters. However, the reality of projectiles entering neighboring countries as a result of the Ukraine war is much more serious, and a significant threat to these populations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/31/2026 - 07:35

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Let There Be Luce: The Electric Ferrari Is Finally Here: Wired’s first look at the Ferrari Luce — the EV the marque kept delaying. Performance numbers, sound design, and the open question of whether Ferrari resale survives a powertrain swap. (Wired)

“Seriously the best boss ever”: inside the world of Jeffrey Epstein’s assistant: A Guardian long-read on Lesley Groff, the assistant who scheduled Epstein’s life for two decades. The “I had no idea” defense rendered, in detail, completely impossible. No one’s name appears in the Epstein files more than that of Lesley Groff, his assistant. Reading through the thousands of emails, a troubling question arises: what did she know? (The Guardian)

Tomatoes become latest symbol of America’s affordability squeeze: Tomatoes, ubiquitous in everything from fast-food burgers to haute cuisine, are taking on a new role beyond the plate: A nagging reminder of rising costs. Prices for those red orbs have soared more than any other food product over the past year to cement a spot as one of the consumer headaches du jour. AP on how Mexico tariffs landed straight on the supermarket tomato bin. The first-order story everyone said wouldn’t happen, happening on schedule. (Associated Press)

Stablecoins Are Private Money. That’s Why They’re a Risk to the Economy. Financial innovations often lead to upheaval and instability. Despite new regulations, those risks persist with stablecoins. Financial innovations often lead to upheaval and instability. Despite new regulations, those risks persist with stablecoins. (Wall Street Journal)

When “survival of the fittest” justified monopolies and the slow death of democracy: Big Think excerpts a new book on how Gilded Age robber barons used Spencerian Darwinism to justify their consolidation — and how the present rhymes more than it should. (Big Think)

The High-Seas Black Market That Keeps Iran’s Illicit Oil Flowing: WSJ on the shadow tanker fleet — flag-of-convenience swaps, AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers — that keeps Iranian crude moving despite sanctions. The sanctions-versus-physics scoreboard. Despite U.S. sanctions, the regime has managed to sell billions of dollars in crude to China using a clandestine network of aging tankers. Our reporters paid a visit. (Wall Street Journal)

The Wrong Stalker: He was an addict. She was his counselor. Who was preying on whom?: A SF Chronicle investigative project that resists every easy frame. The kind of long-form local-paper journalism people keep saying is dead while a few outlets quietly keep doing it. (San Francisco Chronicle)

• This is what happens when you defund Ebola prevention: Shortly after brandishing his infamous chainsaw on a conservative conference stage last February, Elon Musk attended a Cabinet meeting where, giggling slyly, he admitted to having “accidentally canceled” Ebola prevention in his haste to obliterate the US Agency for International Development (USAID). “We restored the Ebola prevention immediately,” he added coolly at the time, “and there was no interruption.” That claim has since proven to be disastrously, profoundly untrue. (Yahoo News)

MAGA Hogs at the Government Trough: The American Prospect cataloging the federal contracts now flowing to MAGA-aligned firms. The grift isn’t hidden anymore; it’s the line-item. (The American Prospect) see also The year Trump broke the federal government: A long, interactive Post piece on what DOGE-era cuts have done to federal capacity. The bill comes due gradually, then all at once. (Washington Post)

Oily Sludge Is Flooding Their Dream Home. Oklahoma Regulators Say They Can’t Help: ProPublica on a family whose Oklahoma property is being slowly destroyed by neighboring oil-and-gas waste — and the state agency that exists to address exactly this declining to act. Regulatory capture in one specific human story. The Merediths were forced to abandon their house after it filled with black goo, reaching gas concentrations at explosive levels. Despite evidence of oil and gas pollution, the state “wanted to act like it would go away,” the family says. (ProPublica)

Video of the day: The 911 Is the New Rolex: Porsche’s Dangerous Scarcity Play

Be sure to check out our special Masters in Business this week, Remembering Jonathan Clements with Bill Bernstein and Jason Zweig. The two recall Clements’ impact on the investor community; they discuss his posthumous book, “Money and Me.”

 

The 2026 Races That Could Determine Senate Control

Source: Wall Street Journal

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Nocebo Effect: The Real PsyOp Behind Fake Pandemics

Zero Hedge -

The Nocebo Effect: The Real PsyOp Behind Fake Pandemics

Authored by Mike Adams via Natural News.com,

The Nocebo Effect Is the Hidden Engine of Modern Pandemic Narratives

When authorities tell you to be afraid of a virus, your mind can make symptoms real, even when no pathogen exists. This is not conspiracy theory; it's documented science, and it has been weaponized against the public for decades. The nocebo effect -- the evil twin of the placebo -- is the key to understanding how pandemics are manufactured as psychological operations. The word "nocebo" means "I will harm" in Latin, and that's exactly what this phenomenon does: it turns negative expectations into real physical harm.

The idea that a suggestion can make you sick is as old as medicine itself, yet it has been deliberately ignored by the scientific establishment because it threatens the entire foundation of the infectious disease model. Research on the nocebo effect in the context of COVID-19 shows that the pandemic produced a "nocebodemic effect" characterized by mass negative interpretation of health services and medical treatments. When combined with the fear narrative pumped out by governments and media, this creates a perfect storm of psychogenic illness that requires no actual virus to produce symptoms. The institutions that profit from sickness have learned to weaponize this effect on a scale never seen before.

How the Nocebo Effect Works: Mind Over Matter, the Dark Side

The placebo effect demonstrates that belief can heal, but its dark twin shows that belief can also harm. In the book "Awaken the Power Within," hypnotist Del Hunter Morrill explains that suggestions create our belief systems and cultural mores, and they affect how we think, respond, and act. When suggestion is carefully engineered by those in power, it can produce real physiological effects. Consider the documented case of a patient who convinced himself he was dying after a mistaken last rites -- and actually died. That's the power of the nocebo response.

Modern research confirms that negative expectations about treatments can cause patients to experience side effects that have no biological basis. A 2017 study in The Lancet concluded that some patients experiencing adverse events while taking statins were actually suffering from a nocebo effect: when patients and doctors were aware of the statin use, reporting of adverse events was much higher than when they were unaware. The mechanism is well understood: the brain's expectation of harm triggers the release of neurotransmitters and hormones that can produce real pain, fatigue, and inflammation. The pharmaceutical industry and governments have weaponized this by flooding the public with constant warnings about symptoms, deaths, and "variants" that prime the population for mass nocebo responses.

COVID-19: The Greatest Nocebo Operation in History

The COVID-19 pandemic stands as the most extravagant mass nocebo operation ever conducted. The docuseries "The End of COVID" argues that the Wuhan coronavirus was not a real viral pandemic but a manufactured crisis, challenging the idea that diseases spread via viral transmission. My own reporting has exposed that PCR tests are fraudulent -- they cannot diagnose infection and were used as theater to convince people they were sick. The CDC's germ theory of disease collapses under scrutiny, as no pure virus has ever been isolated and shown to cause contagious illness. What we experienced was social contagion of fear, not viral contagion.

Yet there was a real toxic element: as I have repeatedly stated, chemical agents released by the Department of Defense caused genuine symptoms in some populations, but the narrative blamed a fictional virus. Then came the lethal experiments in hospitals -- using ventilators and remdesivir -- that killed patients for profit while calling it COVID. Finally, the mRNA injection was promoted as a "vaccine" but functioned as a biological weapon, with injuries later rebranded as "long COVID." The interview with Alec Zeck and Mike Winner makes clear that everything about the supposed viral evidence -- genome sequences, PCR tests, electron micrograph images -- is built upon circular reasoning and logical fallacies.

The real pandemic was not COVID; it was a pandemic of manufactured fear designed to trigger nocebo sickness on a global scale.

The Obedience Test and What It Reveals About Society

The lockdowns, mask mandates on children, social distancing decals on floors, and forced isolation were never about health. They were irrational theater designed to test how far people will go to obey authority. As I noted in an interview with Samantha Bailey, the narrative surrounding infectious diseases and pandemics provides governments and organizations like the CDC with significant control over people's lives through measures such as lockdowns, social distancing, and mandatory vaccinations. The fear generated by these narratives is a powerful tool that justifies extensive actions even when not supported by robust scientific evidence.

Throughout the COVID nocebo psyop, the world proved itself unbelievably gullible. In the span of a few months, billions of people accepted the mass suspension of civil liberties, economic destruction, and the injection of experimental gene therapies into their arms. The trauma of lockdowns and mask-wearing in schools is likely to haunt those who lived through it for many years to come. Yet the controllers are already planning the next rollout. As I warned in an interview with Thomas Renz, they are working on the next pandemic -- likely to appear around the time the WHO treaty is fully implemented. The names will change -- "Smurf virus," "Hantavirus," or something else -- but the pattern will remain the same: manufacture fear, trigger the nocebo response, demand compliance, and use the chaos to push depopulation and digital surveillance agendas.

Breaking the Spell: How to Say No to Nocebo and Protect Your Health

Your best defense against this weaponized mind-control system is simple: reject authority and embrace skepticism. Do not let fear dictate your choices. The nocebo effect is powered by negative expectations, so starve it by refusing to consume the fear porn of the corporate media. As noted in psychological research, the nocebo effect occurs when the treatment context generates negative expectancies that lead to worse health outcomes [13]. If you refuse to participate in the narrative, you refuse to give it power over your body.

I have lived this approach for decades. I take no vaccines, no prescription medications, and I avoid hospitals like the plague. Instead, I rely on natural medicine -- vitamin D, zinc, ivermectin, medicinal herbs, and real food. I eat organic, avoid processed toxins, and spend time in sunlight. My health has never been better, while those who trusted the system -- who lined up for every booster, who wore masks religiously, who cowered in fear -- have suffered and died in alarming numbers.

The principles of self-reliance, natural healing, and critical thinking are not just lifestyle choices; they are survival mechanisms in a world that is actively trying to make you sick through suggestion. Say no to nocebo. Refuse to participate in the sorcery of mass suggestion. Break the spell, and you will live longer, freer, and healthier than you ever imagined possible.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 23:20

Seattle To Declare "State Of Emergency" To Protect Transgender Refugees?

Zero Hedge -

Seattle To Declare "State Of Emergency" To Protect Transgender Refugees?

The ultimate claim to victimhood is the claim that a group of people are "refugees" from mass persecution or "genocide."  The political left covets this victim status more than anything else because, within first world liberal societies, refugees have immediate political capital and access to easy money.  Within every leftist narrative there is an agenda for power and a life without adult responsibility.

It is perhaps ironic that thousands of progressive activists and LGBT advocates are leaving red states over imaginary oppression after they spent years attacking conservatives for escaping blue states over very real medical tyranny.  At least conservatives never called themselves "refugees." 

Leftists specifically believe their rights are being violated in red states because conservative governments won't allow them to mutilate their children with hormone therapy and sex change surgeries.  This nightmare trend, which is increasingly proven by science to have a detrimental effect on the minds and health of the people who undergo gender therapies, is still heavily protected in leftist havens like Seattle.

For reasonable and sane people still living in the Emerald City, relocation should be a top priority because the golden hordes are making the great northwest their home base.  Seattle's new "democratic socialist" (communist) mayor Katie Wilson is more than happy to oblige the mentally ill mob clamoring for access.  The problem is, as the crazies move in, all the businesses are moving out.

This conundrum leaves Wilson's poorly managed city in a financial bind.  New transgender resident are calling themselves "refugees" and demanding access to tax based subsidies in order to survive.  One would think they could simply get jobs like everyone else.  But, much like third world migrants, everywhere these people go they are always jobless and in dire need of handouts. 

The Seattle LGBTQ Commission has requested that Mayor Katie Wilson declare a civil state of emergency due to an influx of transgender and queer individuals relocating from conservative states, which is straining local housing, food, and mental health resources.

National data shows that 84% of transgender and nonbinary people have made major life decisions, such as relocating, since November 2025 due to state policies.  This mass influx is means some Seattle support organizations will face a depletion of resources by the end of the summer.

In response, the mayor is launching an interdepartmental team to assess community needs by August.  Under Seattle Municipal Code and state law, the mayor can proclaim a civil emergency which grants temporary powers.  These include entering contracts and spending without standard bidding, budgeting, or permitting delays. Accessing or reallocating city contingency/emergency funds. And, directing personnel and resources more flexibly.

However, the most likely agenda behind an emergency declaration would be to push for federal funds, which, of course, Seattle will not get. 

The city is facing a massive budget shortfall of half a billion dollars for 2026 and 2027, which means numerous programs and employees will have to be cut.  Katie Wilson has driven away a number of corporate taxpayers and more are getting ready to leave.  This has recently forced the mayor (who initially said good riddance to big business) to change her communist tune and take more diplomatic approach to corporations in the region.

Unfortunately for her, she has made her bed with a gaggle of mentally disturbed fanatics; they want their handouts and they want to destroy major companies paying for those handouts.  As this trend continues it is likely that Seattle faces severe economic crisis, or even collapse. 

On the bright side, the relocation of hundreds of thousands of trans activists means less problem children for red states.  Given that these people seem to cause chaos wherever they go, it's better that they congregate in a place like Seattle and drive each other insane rather than spread out and plague the daily lives of normal people.    

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 22:45

Shortages And Rationing Loom As Global Oil Reserves Fall At Fastest Rate In History

Zero Hedge -

Shortages And Rationing Loom As Global Oil Reserves Fall At Fastest Rate In History

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

No matter what happens now, the world is facing a very painful energy crisis. Let’s be as wildly optimistic as we possibly can and assume that Iran agrees to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz with absolutely no tolls or restrictions starting tomorrow. Before normal traffic through the Strait could resume, Iran would first have to remove all of the mines that they have laid in the Strait, and that could take months. Once all of the mines have been removed, it will take the tankers that are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf weeks to arrive at their destinations. Moving forward, Persian Gulf countries will be exporting much less oil and natural gas for the foreseeable future because of all the oil and natural gas infrastructure that was damaged or destroyed during the war. It will take years before all of that infrastructure is fully repaired and rebuilt. Meanwhile, global supplies of oil and natural gas will be very tight for an extended period of time..

What I have just laid out for you is the best case scenario.

Ultimately, what we end up facing could be so much worse.

Over the past couple of months, global oil reserves have been falling at the fastest rate ever recorded

Record inventory draw: Global oil stocks have fallen by 246 million barrels in March-April, with draws in May hitting a record 8.7 million barrels per day.

Hormuz closure impact: The Strait of Hormuz shutdown has cut off 25% of the world’s seaborne oil, compounding already low reserves and boosting prices.

US price outlook: Analysts expect U.S. gasoline prices could reach $5 this summer unless flows resume, with relief unlikely before autumn.

Needless to say, this is not sustainable.

Here in the United States, the strategic petroleum reserve has been dropping at a record-breaking pace

The SPR’s most recent drawdown, covering the week ended May 22, shows a drop of 9.1 million barrels, leaving the reserves at 365 million barrels. The previous weekly drawdown, covering the week of May 15, was its steepest on record — the U.S. withdrew 9.92 million barrels from the SPR then.

Before that record-breaking decline, the largest weekly drop in the SPR’s history occurred in the week ended Oct. 7, 2022, when the reserves dropped by 7.41 million barrels, and was connected to the war in Ukraine.

Commercial oil inventories are being rapidly depleted as well.

At some point the tanks are going to hit minimum operating levels and we are going to have an enormous crisis on our hands.

The chief economist at Capital Economics is projecting that commercial oil inventories “could reach critically low levels by the end of June”

“At the current pace of drawdown, commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June,” Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on May 18.

If supply conditions don’t improve soon, “prices could rise sharply,” Shearing warned.

Jeff Currie is warning that Asia is already very close to minimum operating levels, and he is projecting that the U.S. could potentially be dealing with shortages in July

Oil markets are nearing minimum operating levels in Asia, with Europe likely next and the U.S. potentially facing shortages by July, said veteran market strategist Jeff Currie on Monday, underscoring the global energy shock due to the Iran war.

Headline global inventory figures can be misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately, said Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways and co-chairman of Abaxx Markets.

A large portion of that oil is needed to keep pipelines and storage systems running safely, leaving only a smaller share available for the market. Asia is already close to these so-called “minimum operating levels,” Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore.

This is really happening.

The Australian government is so concerned about what is ahead that they have already prepared a plan to limit the amount of fuel each vehicle can purchase per day when that becomes necessary…

Contained in documents obtained by Guardian Australian under freedom of information, one option the government had at its disposal to arrest a local fuel supply shortage would be to impose a “maximum transaction value per vehicle per day” – a rationing rule which would limit how much fuel a single vehicle can buy at a service station over a 24-hour period.

If the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened, we could eventually see similar measures get implemented all over the world.

Of course rationing of motor oil has already started

Nissan is rationing 5W-30 and 0W-20 Nissan Genuine Motor Oils. Starting this week, Nissan’s stock of these oils has dropped by 30% year-on-year. With only 70% left in the tank, the brand is already taking precautions, sending memos to dealers to manage its stock during the shortage.

The brand will prioritize certain owners, such as those claiming “warranty, extended warranty, recall repairs, goodwill, and prepaid maintenance,” according to Kim Less, the vice president of aftersales at Nissan Americas, in the bulletin addressed to Nissan dealers.

“Given these constraints, it is critical to prioritize the use of Nissan Genuine 0W-20 (and 5W-30, where applicable) for warranty, extended warranty, recall repairs, goodwill, and prepaid maintenance,” Kim Less, vice president of aftersales, Nissan Americas, said in the May 15 bulletin to Nissan dealers.

I would encourage my readers to stock up on motor oil while they still can.

Supplies are only going to get tighter from this point forward.

The pharmaceutical industry is also very dependent on raw materials from the Middle East, and one pharmacist is claiming that the current drug shortage is the “worst I’ve ever known”

Some people living with heart conditions, stroke risks, eye infections and bipolar disorder are among those unable to get the medications they rely on, a pharmacist has said.

Graham Jones, who owns Shrivenham Pharmacy in Oxfordshire, said vital medication like aspirin was harder to obtain because of surging global prices and government funding which was not keeping up with costs.

Jones said the current medication shortage was the “worst I’ve ever known”.

Personally, I am even more concerned about the global fertilizer shortage.

The UN is telling us that we could be facing a worldwide food crisis that could last for “years”

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks a global food crisis that could extend for years, the UN warned.

Global fertilizer companies have slashed production over shortfalls of sulphur, required to make many farming inputs; about half of the global supply passed through the strait before the Iran war.

As a result, farmers are likely to produce lower yields in coming harvests. Richer economies like those in Europe are mulling building fertilizer stockpiles, reducing duties on imports, and onshoring production, but poorer ones have limited room to adapt.

I want to be very clear about what lies in front of us.

No matter what happens now, there will be shortages and rationing.

It is just a matter of how intense they will be and how long they will last.

Needless to say, the outlook for the global economy in the months ahead is not promising at all.

We really do have a major crisis on our hands, and it will become a historic nightmare if the Strait of Hormuz does not get reopened soon.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 22:10

Three Debates Americans Have Had For 250 Years

Zero Hedge -

Three Debates Americans Have Had For 250 Years

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

George Washington rode west from Philadelphia in command of 13,000 troops on a mission that would test his leadership unlike any previous campaign.

These men were not soldiers in the Continental Army. They were citizen militiamen—forerunners of the National Guard—called up from Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey. And Washington was no longer simply a general. He was president of the United States.

The year was 1794, and Washington had made one of the most fateful decisions of his presidency: to use armed force against fellow Americans.

Congress, desperate for revenue to pay war debts, had enacted a tax on whiskey. Grain farmers in Western Pennsylvania saw the tax as immoral and unjust.

Protestors attacked revenue agents, destroyed the property of tax-paying farmers, and fired shots that killed a local militiaman.

Growing bolder, they fashioned banners on “liberty poles” with slogans like “Equal Taxation and no Excise” and “Liberty or Death.”

For two years, Washington searched for a peaceful resolution. But when 5,000 rebels gathered outside Pittsburgh, vowing to take the city, he knew the time for action had come.

In the end, the Whiskey Rebellion was anticlimactic, resulting in no further violence.

Yet more than 200 years later, Americans still strenuously disagree on basic questions of government.

When is a president justified in mobilizing the National Guard? At what point does a protest become an insurrection? What counts as free speech?

Some fundamental issues were settled at the nation’s founding, a panel of scholars told The Epoch Times. But more were left unsettled. And Americans continue to debate those same issues today.

Unanswered Questions

America will be governed by the people. The Declaration of Independence established that, and the Constitution ratified it.

Abraham Lincoln later distilled the American creed to just 10 words in his Gettysburg Address: “government of the people, by the people, for the people.”

But what does that mean?

“The question is: Who are the people?” David A. Bateman, an associate professor of government at Cornell University, said.

The first states couldn’t agree on the polarizing issue of slavery, so they omitted a definition of citizenship from the Constitution, Bateman told The Epoch Times. Citizenship wasn’t defined until 1868, when the 14th Amendment was ratified after rigorous debate.

“The Framers wrote a very brief, cogent, succinct document, and left a lot unsaid,” J. Edwin Benton, a professor of political science and public administration at South Florida University, said.

“They intended that future generations could take these basic precepts and expand on them,” Benton told The Epoch Times.

Here are three things Americans still argue about.

How Much Power Do Presidents Have?

President Donald Trump mobilized the Illinois National Guard in October 2025, saying federal facilities there had come under coordinated assault by violent groups intent on obstructing immigration law enforcement.

Trump cited a federal law authorizing the president to deploy the National Guard to suppress an invasion or revolt, or to enforce the law when regular authorities can’t.

Two days later, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and others filed a federal lawsuit, arguing Trump’s order infringed on the sovereignty of Illinois.

The Supreme Court agreed, saying the administration failed to identify a source of authority that would allow the military to execute the laws in Illinois.

Trump is not the first U.S. president to be accused of abusing his power.

Debates about the limits of presidential authority go back to the very beginnings of the presidency, Matthew Wilson, an associate professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told The Epoch Times.

“Hamilton and Jefferson had very different ideas about the centrality and desirability of executive power in our political system, and that continues to be a flash point,” Wilson said.

Hamilton favored a stronger executive. Jefferson preferred a weaker role. A hundred years later, Theodore Roosevelt and William Howard Taft continued debating the same issue.

Roosevelt thought all the white space in the Constitution should be filled by the president.

“It was not only [a president’s] right but his duty to do anything that the needs of the Nation demanded unless such action was forbidden by the Constitution or by the laws,” Roosevelt wrote in his autobiography.

Taft held the opposite view. He read the Constitution like a pharmacist reads a prescription.

“The President can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant,” Taft wrote. Each right had to be spelled out in the Constitution or in an act of Congress.

Most presidents have sided with Roosevelt. Many have been checked by Congress or the Court, and widely criticized by their opponents.

Presidents Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, Truman, Nixon, Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, and Biden all also joined Trump in having their executive actions blocked by the Supreme Court.

When Jefferson pushed the boundaries of the office by making the Louisiana purchase without first getting congressional approval, John Adams said Jefferson had become the most federalist of the Federalists. That was meant as an insult, implying that Jefferson had abandoned his own principles and switched sides.

Andrew Jackson was censured by Congress for manipulating fiscal policy after moving funds from the national bank to state banks.

Critics called the 16th president “King Lincoln” for his expansive use of power during the Civil War, including suspending habeas corpus and issuing the Emancipation Proclamation.

Opponents of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal called it a “Fascist regimentation.”

“This is not just a story about Donald Trump,” Wilson told The Epoch Times. “This is a much longer-running pattern in American history.”

What’s the Role of the Supreme Court?

The Supreme Court ruled on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in June 2022, overturning what had been seen as a right to abortion in the United States.

Protesters gathered in the sweltering heat to voice their displeasure.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) later called for the Court to be expanded to 15 members “in the wake of recent rulings upending decades of precedent.” Others have called the current panel a “post-legitimacy court.”

Yet 50 years earlier, Roe v. Wade had sparked an outcry by overturning longstanding state laws prohibiting abortion.

Then-Chief Justice William Rehnquist said the decision smacked of “judicial legislation.” Others labeled it judicial activism.

Justice Byron White said the Court had simply fashioned “a new constitutional right for pregnant mothers.”

Americans have disagreed with Supreme Court decisions for centuries.

The Constitution devotes only 378 words to the Supreme Court, a fraction of that given to the other branches. Over the years, the Court has filled out that job description for itself.

For example, Marbury v. Madison established the principle of judicial review, which gives the Court the right to determine whether laws or presidential actions violate the Constitution.

Andrew Jackson refused to enforce Worcester v. Georgia in 1832. Lincoln did the same with the Ex parte Merryman decision in 1861.

Franklin Roosevelt proposed adding six justices to the Court in 1937—a move widely seen as an attempt to change its ideological balance.

More recently, Joe Biden, as president, called for Congress to impose term limits on Supreme Court Justices.

The Supreme Court was supposed to be the quiet branch of government, according to David Schultz, a professor of political science and legal studies at Hamline University.

“To quote Alexander Hamilton in The Federalist Papers, the Supreme Court would be the ‘least dangerous branch,’” Schultz told The Epoch Times.

But the Court often has to deal with the white space in the Constitution, and that’s nearly always controversial, he said.

How ‘Free’ Is Free Speech?

Riley Gaines, a former collegiate athlete and advocate for reserving women’s sports to biological females, was invited to speak at San Francisco State University in April 2023. Protestors disrupted the event and then accosted Gaines as she tried to leave campus.

A month earlier, a conservative federal judge’s talk at Stanford Law School was interrupted and cut short by student protestors. Judge Kyle Duncan had been invited to speak by the campus Federalist Society. Turning Point USA and Heritage Foundation decried those incidents as attacks on free speech.

In April 2024, Asna Tabassum, valedictorian of the graduating class at the University of Southern California, was not permitted to speak at commencement due to safety concerns. The cancellation came after pro-Israel groups alleged that Tabassum had promoted anti-Semitic views and advocated for abolishing the state of Israel.

In 2025, New York University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology disciplined student speakers who made unauthorized remarks at commencement speeches. Both students characterized action of war in the Gaza Strip as genocide. The Council on American-Islamic Relations and human rights group PEN criticized the universities’ actions as threats to free speech.

The very concept of free speech was sparked by an event similar to our contemporary clashes over free expression.

“The idea carries over from the trial of John Peter Zenger,” Schultz said.

Zenger was tried for libel in 1733—more than 40 years before the Declaration of Indepencence—after printing a newspaper critical of the New York governor. The jury acquitted Zenger.

That established the freedoms of speech and the press that were later included in the Constitution.

But there are some limits, said Ken Kollman, a professor of politics at the University of Notre Dame.

“Courts have long drawn lines between speech that is constitutionally protected and speech that is not,” Kollman told The Epoch Times.

Drawing those lines has often sparked controversy.

In 1798, with America on the brink of war with France, Congress passed the Alien and Sedition Acts.

These laws authorized the president to deport non-citizens or to imprison them during wartime. Another law made it a crime to “print, utter, or publish ... any false, scandalous, and malicious writing” about the government.

Bateman sees echoes of this today in the deportation of activists with unpopular views.

“Everybody supports free speech in principle,” Wilson said. “The question is: who is willing to support it in practice when it becomes difficult or inconvenient or offensive?”

Signs of Good Health

Is free speech working well today? No, says Kollman. “We are living in a moment when the once-shared notion of protecting open and free debate is being eroded by our partisan [and] other social divisions.”

But we need robust debate, the scholars agreed. The future of the country depends on it.

“Encouraging, fostering, and protecting institutions and processes that encourage open and free debate are all vital for the survival of a liberal democracy,” Kollman said.

“Embrace conflict. Embrace heated, unconstrained argument. And stop trying to impose an etiquette about what it should look like—whose primary function is to constrain it,” Bateman said.

Said Wilson, “Americans ought to think about their responsibility as citizens.

“One of the Founders’ clear beliefs was that the Republic could survive and be healthy only if it had a virtuous, informed, and engaged citizenry.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 21:00

Green Retreat: California Eases Carbon-Market Costs For Oil Refiners

Zero Hedge -

Green Retreat: California Eases Carbon-Market Costs For Oil Refiners

California's green-energy regime has hollowed out the state's refining and oil industry, leaving motorists paying the highest gasoline prices in the country. AAA data show the state gasoline average now north of $6 per gallon, compared with a national average of roughly $4.36 as of Saturday morning.

The result of political blowback in California over unaffordable gasoline and diesel prices at the pump is a retreat from left-wing climate policies that could offer relief to motorists, Bloomberg News reports.

On Friday, the California Air Resources Board voted to create up to $4 billion in free carbon allowances for oil refiners and other industrial polluters. This will help them more easily comply with the state's greenhouse gas limits under the Cap-and-Invest program.

Earlier this year, CARB proposed further tightening emission limits by removing 118 million allowances from the market to keep the state on track to meet its 2030 climate targets. For refiners, that would mean further reducing emissions or paying more for allowances, with mounting costs already pushing them out of the state

The move will help contain gasoline prices at the pump and prevent refiners from leaving the state, especially after energy disruptions in the Gulf region pushed California gasoline prices above $6.

Take US oil giant Chevron, which recently warned that California is careening toward an energy crisis because of the Iran war, and that the company may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations.

California is highly exposed to the disruption rippling through commodity markets, as it imports about 20% of its refined fuels from Asia. But as extensively discussed here, oil product shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore, and elsewhere have been disrupted, leaving Asian nations struggling to meet domestic demand, let alone export to California.

Chevron’s oil refining head Andy Walz recently warned that the potential for fuel shortages in California is his worst fear: We have refineries in Asia that are having to cut crude, and so they’re going to make fewer products,” Walz said in an interview in late March. “What if San Francisco doesn’t have the jet fuel it needs? Or Los Angeles? Or maybe gasoline?”

Since California is disconnected from the U.S. fuel-making centers of Texas and Louisiana, it is essentially an energy island.

Walz noted in March, days after the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out, that tightening California's cap-and-invest program "made no sense when you look at global tensions right now."

California's green regime has produced nothing but disastrous consequences for households, making fuel prices the highest in the nation:

There are national security implications stemming from the green regime, especially for the state with the nation's largest concentration of military personnel and national security activity.

The retreat on climate targets by state regulators is a win for consumers and the nation, as green is nothing more than inflationary and degrowth, hitting working-poor households the hardest with unaffordable gasoline and diesel prices at the pump.

Elsewhere, the US-Iran conflict has forced left-wing states such as New York, Massachusetts, and others to dial back unrealistic climate ambitions.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 18:05

Caught On Tape: Washington Nationals Official Admits To Discriminating Against Religious Player

Zero Hedge -

Caught On Tape: Washington Nationals Official Admits To Discriminating Against Religious Player

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Washington Nationals Director of Community Relations Sean Hudson has been caught on camera admitting that he discriminates against starting pitcher Trevor Williams because of his Catholic faith.

The Daily Caller reports that O’Keefe Media Group has released a new undercover report where Hudson admits that the team avoids featuring starting pitcher Trevor Williams on social media because of his 2023 criticism of the Dodgers’ Pride Night.

That particular event honored a drag group dressed as nuns and performing on a crucifix that Williams called a mockery of Catholicism.

According to Fox News, in a 2025 interview with Bishop Robert Barron, Williams explained why he spoke out, saying, “Baseball stadiums should be a place where everyone feels welcomed, like 100%. We should all feel welcomed there. But that was clearly against one certain religion. If you don’t draw the line in the sand, who’s gonna do it?

Hudson described Williams as “super Christian-Catholic” with religious tattoos, and confessed that even lighthearted social media posts—for example, ones asking “Is a hot dog a sandwich?”—avoid including Williams because he spoke out.

Hudson also admitted on hidden camera to digitally surveilling fans who attend Nationals Park, saying, “If you ever come to a Nats game, there is someone on our team who’s responsible for figuring out everything about you, given your purchasing habits, what teams you come to when the Nats play, like what teams you come, and assigning you into a bucket of people and then catering content to you.”

The Daily Caller reports that Hudson told the undercover reporter that if a team supporter accepts online cookies “we’re getting your, a plethora of your Google history.”

In the video, the Nationals executive also described himself as “very far-left leaning” and admitted that he has a “Join the Communist Party” poster in his kitchen.

After the video came to light, Hudson deleted his X account, changed his Instagram, and denied the comments when confronted.

Hudson has since been removed from the team’s front office page amid online calls for boycotts and claims of religious discrimination.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/30/2026 - 17:30

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