My TACO-Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

• The Melt-Up: The Nasdaq 100 now has a higher return over the past 10 years than: Japan in the 1980s, the Dow in the Roaring 20s, the S&P in the 1950s. Still trails the 1990s tech run but it’s close Is this it? Is the melt-up here? How much crazier could it get? (Wealth of Common Sense)

• The Home Office meets the housing crisis: On the UK Home Office’s role in deepening the housing squeeze. The administrative state as housing policy by accident. (Chaminda Jayanetti)

• How AI mania is disguising big companies’ hit from Iran war — in charts: Biggest groups have gained $5.4tn in value since conflict began — but semiconductor sector accounts for most of the gains. The FT shows how AI-driven megacap returns are papering over Iran-war damage in the rest of the market. The headline index is lying to you. (Financial Times)

• The Factory Town Known as China’s Furniture Capital Is Fighting to Survive: A WSJ portrait of one Chinese export town getting flattened by tariffs and weak demand. The supply-chain map is being redrawn in real time. The U.S. lost much of its furniture industry to China years ago. Now, American tariffs and overseas competition are punishing manufacturers. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Slopification of Lunch: The fast-casual bowl as cultural artifact: cheap, beige, and aggressively undifferentiated. Esquire pokes at why lunch got worse. R.I.P. to the golden age of fast-casual dining. What the hell happened? (Esquire)

• The Emergent Self Loop: Kevin Kelly on how recursive systems develop apparent agency. A useful framework for thinking about AI, organisms, and your own habits. (KK)

• The Culture Crutch: How lazy social scientists and commentators use “culture” as a catch-all explanation to avoid the harder analytical work. How lazy social scientists and commentators use the c-word to avoid doing their jobs (Laissez-Faire, Laissez-Passer)

• New Research: Cognitive dissonance helps explain why Trump supporters remain loyal: “The researchers found a positive association between feeling bothered by the news article and expressing disbelief in the allegations. Participants who experienced higher levels of mental discomfort were more likely to claim the accusations were fabricated. This suggests that the denial is not just a calm rejection of information, but rather a direct response to the psychological distress of cognitive dissonance.” (PsyPost) see also Hundreds of Fake Pro-Trump Avatars Emerge on Social Media: The artificial-intelligence-generated fake influencers have surged on TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and YouTube in an apparent bid to hook conservative voters. In the months leading up to the midterm elections, hundreds of A.I.-generated pro-Trump influencer accounts have emerged on social media, featuring avatars posting at a rapid pace about the “radical left” and “America First.” (New York Times)

• Science Has Found Even More Ways Coffee Is Good for You: More positive nutritional findings on the world’s most-consumed psychoactive beverage. Drink up — selectively. A new study shows the mechanisms of how coffee modifies the microbiome, reduces inflammation, and influences mood. Even decaf has its perks. (Wired)

• ‘Tony’ Gives Anthony Bourdain the Anti-Biopic Treatment: The new Bourdain film aims for something stranger than hagiography. Whether it lands is another question. Blackberry director Matt Johnson’s origin-story movie cuts down on the hero factor by showing us the future icon as a Provincetown line cook with a lot to learn. (GQ)

Video of the day: Psychology of “Generation Jones”

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business interview with Howard Lindzon, known as “The Larry David of Finance.” He is General Partner at the seed fund, Social Leverage, he was one of the first seed investors in Robinhood, which IPOd at $30B in 2021, eToro, Manscaped, and Beehiiv. Previously, he founded Wallstrip, a daily online video show acquired by CBS (2007). He also co-founded Stocktwits, which pioneered the “cashtag.” Recognized by Institutional Investor as a “Super Angel;” his podcast is Panic with Friends.

 

Trump disapproval reaches new high via WashPost-ABC-Ipsos poll

Source: Washington Post

 

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UK Summons Chinese Ambassador Over Spying Allegation

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times,

The British Foreign Ministry on May 9 stated that it had summoned the Chinese ambassador after a London court convicted two men, including a former British immigration officer, of spying for the Chinese communist regime.

Bill Yuen Chung Biu (L) and Peter Wai Chi Leung (R), both charged with assisting Hong Kong intelligence service, arrive separately ahead of their trial at the Old Bailey in central London, on March 2, 2026. Carlos Jasso/AFP via Getty Images

The Chinese ambassador, Zheng Zeguang, was called to the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office on May 8 for an official reprimand, according to a British government statement.

The UK Foreign Office stated that it had made clear that “any attempts by foreign states to intimidate, harass or harm individuals or communities” on British soil will not be tolerated and that such activities constitute “a serious breach of the UK’s sovereignty.”

“We will continue to use the full range of tools available to protect our security and hold China to account for actions which undermine our safety and democratic values,” it stated.

The British government’s move came just a day after a jury found Wai Chi-leung and Yuen Chung-biu guilty under the National Security Act 2023 of assisting a foreign intelligence service, following a weeks-long trial at the Central Criminal Court in London.

Wai was also convicted of misconduct in a public office in relation to misusing the UK Interior Ministry’s systems to track targets while working for the British Border Force at London Heathrow airport. Prosecutors said Wai used his access to the UK government’s databases to conduct unauthorized searches while off duty and improperly shared the personal information obtained.

Helen Flanagan, head of counterterrorism policing in London, which led the investigation into the high-profile case, called the pair’s activists “both sinister and chilling.”

“Our investigation found they were spying for the Hong Kong authorities, targeting UK-based pro-democracy campaigners,” Flanagan said in a May 7 statement following the conviction.

The pair—both dual Chinese and British nationals—were described by local media as the first in UK history to be convicted of spying for Beijing. They face up to 14 years in prison.

The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in London on July 21, 2020. Luke Dray/Getty Images

Investigators found that Yuen was in contact with individuals linked to the Hong Kong government while working at the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office (HKETO) in London. He then tasked Wai with conducting spying and surveillance of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists living in Britain.

Messages on Yuen’s phone indicated that their surveillance of Nathan Law, a former Hong Kong lawmaker and a prominent pro-democracy advocate, had begun as early as 2021, according to prosecutors.

The Chinese Embassy in the UK confirmed its ambassador met with a British Foreign Office official on May 8. According to a Chinese summary of the meeting, Zheng protested the London court’s ruling and called on the UK side to stop what he called “anti-China political manipulation.”

The case has cast a renewed spotlight on HKETO, a Hong Kong government overseas outpost that was designed to promote trade relations between the UK and the Asian financial hub. Critics have long argued that its resources and privileges were used for intelligence gathering and targeting overseas Hong Kong activists.

In response to the May 7 ruling, the London-based Hong Kong Labor Rights Monitor called on the UK government to urgently review the status and privileges granted to HKETO, including whether its current diplomatic privileges remain appropriate.

“We cannot allow the Hong Kong authorities to disguise political repression as trade promotion, nor permit authoritarian ‘long-arm repression’ to extend into free societies,” the group said in a May 7 statement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 05:00

Media Spreads Hantavirus Hysteria In Attempt To Save Disgraced WHO

The establishment media has been drumming up fear after a recent outbreak of Hantavirus on a cruise liner traveling from Argentina to West Africa.  The Guardian has used the opportunity to assert that the US is currently ill equipped to deal with future pandemic threats, largely because of Donald Trump (of course) and the dramatic US exit from the now disgraced World Health Organization. 

Is Hantavirus a serious danger to the world, or, is it another hyped up virus like Covid being used to trigger public hysteria?  And if it is being hyped, who (or WHO) stands to benefit? 

For decades the WHO constructed its image as a global angel of benevolence; the primary line of defense against what they said was the inevitable invasion of a population rending plague.  However, when the time finally came in the form of a mutated Coronavirus (Covid), they dropped the ball, and evidence suggests they may have done it deliberately.

During the initial outbreak in China, the WHO echoed CCP propaganda suggesting that human-to-human contact was unlikely and, knowingly or unknowingly, aided China in hiding details behind the outbreak.  Details surrounding the involvement of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the largest dangerous disease lab in Asia, were actively dismissed (or suppressed).  Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus even praised China's "transparency". 

The WHO then set up a joint task force to determine the origins of Covid, only to let the Chinese dominate the investigation and lead it away from the activities at the Level 4 lab in Wuhan.  The Chinese wanted to push the theory of animal-to-animal mutation instead of the gain of function research that was ongoing at the lab (partially funded by US interests in the Obama Administration). 

Today, evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Covid originated in the Wuhan Lab.  In January 2025, the CIA assessed that a lab-related origin is more likely than natural spillover.  This determination matched with similar FBI assessments. 

In 2025, German Intelligence also reported their findings, indicating a 90% likelihood that Covid was engineered and originated at the Wuhan Lab in China.   

Of course, anyone who made this claim online during the pandemic response was called a dangerous "conspiracy theorist" and was deplatformed (much like Zero Hedge).

The WHO would go on to exaggerate the death rate of the virus, claiming an initial Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 3.4%.  This data was based on studies which ignored mild cases as well as asymptomatic cases, thus artificially pumping up the death rate.    

Dozens of studies as early as May 2020 showed that the median Infection Fatality Rate (a more accurate number) was only 0.27% (later adjusted to 0.23%).  The WHO continued to spread disinformation and hysteria surrounding covid while ignoring the true IFR data.  That is to say, all the lockdowns, the mandates, the social media censorship, the arrests, the push for vaccine passports, etc. - all of it was over a virus that 99.8% of the population would easily survive. 

The WHO has been exposed as a perpetrator of pandemic disinformation and is no longer trusted by the public.  The US under the Trump Administration has exited the organization on these grounds, and as a result the WHO has lost at least 20% of its total funding.  It is now facing dire financial conditions.  In response, the UN and the establishment media have been running a spin campaign to present the WHO as indispensable.  

It is therefore not surprising that the WHO and the media are suddenly jumping on the cruise line Hantavirus story as if it is significant, while at the same time arguing that Trump is putting the public at risk by not participating in the WHO's antics.  They need the money badly, and so they've decided to remind the public why we should be afraid. 

For those who are unaware, Hantavirus is a common virus around the world and in the US.  Estimates show around 100,000 cases of the disease occur annually.  In 2023, there were 40 cases in the US.  The virus is most often contracted when humans are exposed to dried rodent feces and urine, floating as particulates in the air which are then inhaled into the lungs. 

The spread from human to human is rare and only occurs with the South American strain.  Contraction is difficult, with the virus passing from one person to another through "prolonged contact with bodily fluids".  It makes you wonder what kind of pleasure cruise these people were on when the most recent outbreak started?  The point is, the story is being inflated from a normal event into a crisis event.  

This is probably why the Spanish Government set up an elaborate bus transfer of supposedly highly infectious cruise passengers, only to drop off a psychiatrist with the Ministry of Health down the road without protective gear like he's going home after school. 

Las imágenes que está dejando toda la "Operación Hantavirus" son de película de Berlanga.

Contagiados quitándose la mascarilla, personal bajando de los autobuses con el EPI en la mano, otros que ni lo llevan puesto, etc.

Menudo cachondeo.pic.twitter.com/bYo01wA2RN pic.twitter.com/kiBnBAiBp0

— Elyon (@ElyonMan) May 10, 2026

The bottom line?  Hantavirus is all over the world and it's not a threat to the vast majority of people.  The artificial media panic and the opportunism of the WHO may be an effort to test the waters for another fraudulent pandemic scare, but the majority of the propaganda seems to be aimed at restoring the WHO's reputation and saving it from financial ruin.       

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 04:15

Ideological Insanity Has Gotten Way Way Worse In The UK...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A major exam board has now signed off on gender-neutral language in GCSE French, Spanish and German exams – despite the terms being completely alien to how those languages are actually spoken in their home countries.

The move, buried in new specifications for 2026 exams, hands students the green light to ditch standard masculine and feminine forms in favour of made-up “inclusive” pronouns, nouns and adjectives.

Yes, you read that right. They’re letting students make up their own parts of foreign languages in exams.

'Absurd!' British exam board allows GCSE French students to use gender-neutral language despite terms not being used in Francehttps://t.co/IjXsL9J8ZK

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 10, 2026

Staff at Pearson Edexcel have explicitly permitted teens to use “inclusive” pronouns, nouns and adjectives in both written and oral GCSEs. Yet as the article linked above makes clear, “the French do not pander to the same bid for inclusivity, with all their grammatical concepts being strictly categorised into gendered variants.”

Adjectives must match the noun in masculine or feminine endings. Gender-neutral terms simply do not exist in grammatically correct French or Spanish.

French, by its very nature, is a gendered language. Words are denoted as being "le" or "la," depending on whether they are masculine or feminine. This is silly and culturally ignorant. https://t.co/pj2TmzTdGQ

— Alex (@Admalez) May 9, 2026

Former French education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer blasted the move as “absurd”. He stated: “French grammar has not changed in this regard. And the use of ‘iel’ does not correspond to any widespread usage among the French population.”

Some French universities and socialist councils have tried pushing “iel” and “iels” as neutral replacements for “il” and “elle”, but Blanquer made it clear this is not mainstream French. The exam board’s decision flies in the face of actual language as used by native speakers.

The new specs include a dedicated section on “gendered language”, backed by the usual LGBT activists at Stonewall. Pearson claims gendered language “can present specific challenges for trans and non-binary students”. As a result, they’ve added vocabulary for “trans” and “non-binary” to the list and vowed to “recognise students’ use of non-binary or gender-neutral pronouns when describing themselves or others” in exams.

Absolute insanity. When these people go out into the real world, only then will they discover that no one has a clue what it is they’re saying.

Students can even deploy new adjectival endings “according to their preferred way of identifying”, along with special spellings using full stops, “x’s”, asterisks and underscores. This isn’t teaching French – it’s turning language exams into an identity politics playground.

The move comes just weeks after the government’s new trans guidance for schools, a framework that openly allows primary school children – some as young as four – to socially transition at school, complete with different pronouns, as long as teachers show “caution” and consult parents.

What started with pronoun policies in the classroom has now leaked into the actual curriculum and assessment system.

Director of Advocacy at Sex Matters, Helen Joyce, nailed the bigger picture, noting “It may seem baffling how quickly schools have been captured by gender ideology in recent years.” Joyce pointed to Stonewall-linked external providers pushing a “pro-trans agenda” and warned: “The next challenge for the Department for Education will be to tackle the pernicious creep of gender ideology throughout the curriculum, and the role of external providers in driving this.”

Pearson tried to walk it back in a statement, insisting: “Gender-neutral pronouns are not required as part of Pearson Edexcel GCSE French, German, or Spanish. The specifications require students to learn and be assessed only on the standard masculine and feminine forms used in these languages.” They added that the vocabulary list reflects “everyday life, including references to men and women, him and her, boys and girls, mothers and fathers,” and claimed their Stonewall membership ended over two years ago.

The Department for Education itself sounded a note of caution, stating: “Our expectations are clear: gender identity is an area of significant debate. Schools should not endorse any particular view or teach it as fact – including the idea that all people have a gender identity.”

Yet the guidance still permits the very practices critics say undermine real education. Allowing fantasy spellings and pronouns in a French GCSE doesn’t prepare kids for the real world – it prepares them for ideological conformity. French speakers in France won’t understand “iel” any more than they’ll understand a British teen demanding to be called “they” in Paris.

 

This is the inevitable next step after the trans guidance fiasco. Once you accept that feelings trump biology in the classroom, it was only a matter of time before the same logic infected subjects like languages, history and science. Stonewall’s influence may be officially over at Pearson, but the damage lingers in the specs they helped shape.

Parents and common-sense voices have every right to be furious. Education should teach facts, grammar and reality – not indulge every passing social trend. The UK already lags behind in basic skills; turning GCSEs into optional pronoun workshops only accelerates the decline.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 03:30

Merz Promises Fico A Spanking For Slovak Leader's Moscow V-Day Trip

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was once again this year the only EU leader to visit Moscow for Russia's Victory Day commemorative WW2 celebrations on Saturday, which has drawn a predictable and fierce rebuke from Germany and European officials.

This was the second time Fico attended V-Day celebrations, after a similar controversial visit last year. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in particular chastised Fico with scolding words, as if Fico was being called to the principal's office. "We will talk with him about this day in Moscow today," he said. "We are celebrating Europe Day here in Stockholm today. And this is something completely different."

picture alliance/Getty Images

One apt and hilariously sarcastic headline said that "Merz promised Fico a spanking for a trip to Moscow on May 9."

Merz also said he "deeply regretted" Fico's trip while asserting it did not reflect the EU's "common view". Fico has not only been intensely skeptical of European aid to Ukraine, but Slovakia has also remained heavily dependent on Russian energy.

As for President Putin, he received Fico and said: "I know there were some difficulties with your trip to Moscow. But the important thing is that you're here." These 'difficulties' included several European states having refused to let let the Slovak leader's plane use their airspace on his way to Moscow.

"We welcome the gradual resumption of bilateral cooperation, which had effectively been put on hold by the previous Slovak authorities," said Putin. "We will do everything we can to meet the Slovak Republic’s energy needs."

Still, Fico didn't attend the full array of V-Day events. He met with Putin, but skipped the main military parade events at Red Square, and instead solemnly laid flowers on Friday at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, which is Russia's central memorial to millions of Soviet soldiers who died fighting against Nazi Germany.

Fico deflected ongoing EU criticism, saying his visit was "a manifestation of respect for the victims of the Second World War" and that he and Putin must necessarily discuss "fundamental questions" of bilateral relations.

"I am opposed to creating any kind of new Iron Curtain between Europe, the European Union, and the Russian Federation," Fico said. "I support normal, standard, friendly, and mutually beneficial relations."

But one irony is that Slovakia has been a member of the NATO alliance since 2004, and in President Putin's keynote V-Day speech, he again blasted NATO expansion and its role in Ukraine.

Brussels Pressure Failed, Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico Arrives To Meet Putin pic.twitter.com/7yroI79VJr

— RT_India (@RT_India_news) May 9, 2026

"The great feat of the generation of victors inspires the soldiers carrying out the goals of the special military operation today," Putin had declared. "They are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And despite this, our heroes move forward," he said. "I firmly believe that our cause is just," he later emphasized.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 02:45

Europe Fails To React To Ukrainian Drone Incidents

Authored by Lucas Leiroz de Almeida via Global Research,

Recent drone incidents in European countries, especially in the Baltic states, are generating controversy among those who support the war with Russia. Some argue that Ukraine is merely defending itself against “Russian aggression,” with these “accidental” occurrences being an inevitable side effect of hostilities. Others believe that Kiev should act more cautiously to avoid harming partner countries. Meanwhile, drones continue to crash in Europe without a definitive solution being presented for this issue.

Recently, a kamikaze drone launched by Ukraine struck a fuel storage tank in Latvia. At the time of the incident, the tank was empty, which prevented a major tragedy. Had the drone hit a full tank, the result would have been a large explosion, followed by a massive fire, generating serious economic and environmental damage – as has happened in several recent cases in Russian border regions, with drones hitting energy facilities and causing serious fires.

Obviously, the expected attitude of any country hit by a foreign drone – even from an allied country – is at least to condemn the action and demand financial compensation for the damage caused. But apparently, this is not the Latvian stance regarding Ukrainian drones falling in the country. Recently, Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds stated that Kiev should not be held responsible for these incidents. According to him, these are merely accidental collateral damages, with the real blame for the occurrence lying with Russia – which he believes “started the war”.

Spruds stated that “Ukraine has every right to defend itself,” admitting that even incidents affecting Latvian territory should be tolerated, since Kiev is only acting in “legitimate self-defense.”

In practice, he prioritized the supposed Ukrainian “right” to attack Russia over the national security of Latvian territory and people.

Not only that, the Latvian government also summoned Russian diplomats and demanded explanations about the case.

Even though the drones are known to be of Ukrainian origin, the Latvian government maintains a firm stance of holding Russia responsible for any event related to the conflict.

Furthermore, Moscow has also presented reports to the Latvian side showing that drones have crashed in the country due to failed Ukrainian attempts to attack the St. Petersburg region, but the Latvian government ignores these circumstances and simply blames Moscow.

Unfortunately, this attitude is not unique to the defense sector. Tolerance towards incidents involving Ukrainian drones is also widely endorsed by the country’s government and parliament, with most local politicians and bureaucrats being mere representatives of European elites interested in spreading Russophobia and pro-war sentiments. Commenting on the case, Latvian PM Evika Silina herself stated that, regardless of the origin of the drones that hit the country, it is always necessary to blame Russia – which she considers the “actual culprit”.

“It doesn’t matter whose drones hit the oil depot in Latvia, the main thing is to remember Russia’s responsibility for it. Russia is the aggressor,” she said.

It is important to remember that the incident at the fuel depot was just one in a recent wave of frustrated Ukrainian attacks resulting in drone crashes in Europe. Previously, on March 23, Ukrainian drones exploded near Lake Lavysas in Lithuania; two days later, in Latvia itself, drones crashed in the Kraslava region, and on the same day a similar incident occurred at the Auvere Power Plant in Estonia. On March 29, the city of Kouvola in Finland was hit by Ukrainian drones. Furthermore, several other related incidents have been reported in different countries in recent months.

In none of these cases was there an effective European response to the crimes committed by Ukraine. Justifying these occurrences with the unfounded narrative of “self-defense,” European countries are tolerating threats to their own territories and abdicating their right to demand reparations from the Ukrainian regime.

In practice, this only strengthens Ukraine’s position and gives even more freedom to the local military to act irresponsibly, launching swarms of drones indiscriminately, aware that some of them will likely fall on civilian areas of allied countries – but simply not caring, since these countries will ultimately blame Russia.

At some point, these Ukrainian drones will begin to cause more serious damage than merely destroying empty depots. If the incidents do not cease, there will inevitably be deaths in Europe in the near future. And then it will not be enough for local governments to say “it’s Russia’s fault,” because the victims’ relatives, knowing that the drones are Ukrainian, will demand more concrete answers and harsh measures against those responsible. As a result, the support given by these countries to Ukraine will become even more unpopular, generating an internal legitimacy crisis.

To prevent the worst-case scenario, the best thing Europeans can do now is to openly condemn Kiev and demand financial reparations for the damage caused.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 02:00

What Decades Of Academic Literature, Military Doctrine Says About Effectiveness Of 'Decapitation Strikes'

Authored by José Niño via The Libertarian Institute

The United States has long operated under a seductive strategic fantasy. Remove the leader of an adversary organization, whether a drug cartel, a terrorist group, or a sovereign state, and that organization will collapse, enabling American interests to fill the resulting vacuum.

However, decades of academic literature, hard empirical data from Mexico’s drug war, and the lived consequences of America’s post 9/11 targeted killing campaigns all tell a damning story many in the DC ruling class refuse to acknowledge. Decapitation strategies are, at best, tactically satisfying and strategically hollow. At worst, they escalate violence, radicalize successors, and produce precisely the instability they were designed to prevent. The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran represents the most ambitious test of this doctrine in history. The results so far are deeply troubling.

US Navy/Reuters

The poor results should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the academic literature on leadership targeting. The scholarly consensus against decapitation has been building for decades. Jenna Jordan’s landmark research, first published in Security Studies in 2009 and later expanded into her book Leadership Decapitation, examined 298 incidents of leadership targeting from 1945 through 2004. She concluded that “decapitation is not an effective counterterrorism strategy” and that it tends to extend the life of terrorist organizations.

Jordan identifies three structural factors that make organizations resilient to leadership decapitation: bureaucratic depth, popular support, and ideological coherence. The more institutionalized and ideologically rooted an organization is, the more it absorbs the loss of leaders. Martyrdom replaces individuals with myth.

Through analysis of over 1,000 decapitation events against 180 terrorist groups, Jordan found that decapitation “does not increase the mortality rate of terrorist groups and, in some cases, even leads to more terrorist activity,” as War on the Rocks reported. The University of Pretoria’s Emmanuel Ofuasia confirmed that "the decapitation tactic has served as a basis for escalation and proliferation of terrorist groups rather than serving as deterrence against the possibility of recurrence."

The fixation with decapitation strategies is part and parcel of the DC mindset, which puts regime change on a pedestal—consequences be damned. Alexander Downes of George Washington University, whose book Catastrophic Success surveys roughly 90 instances of foreign-imposed regime change, finds that more than 40% of states that experience foreign-imposed regime change have a civil war within the next ten years. Ben Denison of the Cato Institute concurs that “even after high-profile failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, some in the policy community still call for ousting illiberal regimes,” and the empirical record “clearly reveals that a regime-change operation is more likely to fail than to succeed.”

The academic literature is damning enough, but the real-world laboratory of Mexico’s drug war offers even starker evidence of decapitation’s failure. By January 2011, Mexican authorities had captured or killed 20 of their 37 priority cartel targets. Violence did not recede. More than 66,000 drug-related deaths occurred in Mexico between 2007 and 2012.

The landmark 2015 study in the Journal of Conflict Resolution—by Calderón, Robles, Díaz-Cayeros, and Magaloni—found that “captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence, but also on homicides that affect the general population.”

The mechanisms are clear: “When drug capos are eliminated, other cartels possess incentives to fight turf wars…Moreover, as the elimination of drug capos weakens existing chains of command, criminal cells begin operating with less restraint.”

The lessons from Mexico have gone unheeded. Today, the same flawed logic drives American policy toward Iran, where prominent voices in the foreign policy establishment have begun sounding the alarm. Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has been the most prominent institutional voice of skepticism about the Iran campaign.

In March 2026, he wrote that “Killing Iran’s top leaders may feel like a decisive blow, but history shows that decapitation rarely produces the political outcomes the United States hopes for, and often exacerbates instability.” He points to Israel’s repeated targeting of Hamas leaders since 1987 as definitive refutation. Instead of changing political direction, Hamas simply “absorbed its martyrs and lives to fight another day.”

Iran is not a hollow dictatorship held together by one man’s terror. It is an institutionalized revolutionary state that has operated under sanctions, sabotage, covert operations, and assassination campaigns for decades. Its architecture was consciously engineered for continuity under stress.

As Al Jazeera’s analysis notes, “Iran is not a single pyramid with one man at the apex. It is a heterarchical, networked state: Overlapping hubs of power around the Supreme Leader’s office, the Revolutionary Guards, intelligence organs, clerical gatekeepers, and a patronage economy. In such a system, removing one node, even the most symbolic one, does not reliably collapse the structure; redundancy and substitute chains of command are a design feature.”

The evidence is overwhelming, yet Washington refuses to learn. Decapitation strategies represent a cartoon, video game style approach to foreign policy, rooted in the fantasy that eliminating a single leader will cause an entire regime to crumble. DC desperately needs a wakeup call.

The United States cannot kill its way to a more favorable world order. America must abandon the interventionist impulse and embrace strategic retrenchment and accept the harsh realities that not all countries want to be remade in Washington’s image. Restraint, not assassination nor quixotic regime change ventures, is the foundation of a sustainable grand strategy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 23:25

India Rejects Russian LNG Under Sanctions

India rejected Russia’s offer ​to sell it liquefied natural gas subject to US sanctions, despite a huge shortfall driven by Middle East tensions, leaving a tanker bound for India in limbo as talks continue on permitted cargoes, Reuters reports.

The stance highlights the fine balance the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer is seeking to strike between securing energy supplies and avoiding LNG cargoes on which the U.S. has ​placed sanctions, which are harder to disguise and carry greater compliance risk. It also underscores the limits of Moscow’s ability ​to pivot its LNG exports to new markets.

India's reluctance has left an LNG cargo from Russia's U.S.-sanctioned Portovaya ⁠plant in the Baltic Sea unable to discharge, despite indicating India as its destination in mid-April, one of the sources said. The ​vessel was tracked despite documentation suggesting the cargo was non-Russian, the source added.

Reuters had reported in mid-April, citing LSEG shipping data, that the ​138,200-cubic-metre tanker Kunpeng was heading to the Dahej LNG import terminal in western India. The vessel is now near Singaporean waters with no destination broadcast, according to LSEG.

India, the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, conveyed its decision not to buy LNG that was under sanction to Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Pavel ​Sorokin during his April 30 visit, when he met Indian officials including Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, one of ​the sources said. It was their second meeting in as many months, and Sorokin could return in June for further talks, said the source.

India’s purchases of Russian crude have meanwhile continued unabated, aided by a temporary waiver of U.S. sanctions introduced to help countries cope with an energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28.

Arctic LNG 2 is Russia's other export plant subject to U.S. sanctions. Washington stepped ​up sanctions on the LNG ​plants in early 2025 over ⁠Russia's war on Ukraine.  

While crude oil cargoes can be hidden through ship-to-ship transfers at sea, LNG shipments are far harder to conceal from satellite tracking. 

While India is open to buying authorised ​Russian LNG, most of those volumes are committed to Europe, Reuters notes. Meanwhile, China remains ⁠a major buyer of both sanctioned and unsanctioned Russian LNG. Moscow is also seeking long-term deals to supply India with LNG and fertilizers such as potash, phosphorus and urea, the source added.

Before the Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, India was meeting half of its ⁠gas consumption ​through imports, about 60% of which had come through the waterway. More than ​half of its crude supplies came the same way.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday urged people to conserve fuel and foreign exchange by working from home, limiting foreign ​travel and reducing imports of gold and edible oil.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 21:45

Iran Executes Top Young Aerospace Scientist, Alleging CIA & Mossad Ties

Iran has executed 29-year-old aerospace engineer Erfan Shakourzadeh on Monday on espionage charges despite his protestations that authorities tortured him into giving a false confession, according to a prison note published before his execution, as recounted in Western press reports.

Iranian judiciary's Mizan Online website announced and confirmed the execution, describing that he was hanged after being convicted for allegedly collaborating with the CIA and Israel's Mossad intelligence service.

Various human rights organizations have rejected the validity of the charges, and have decried his execution, having for weeks raised the alarm that he was on death row.

Shakourzadeh studied electrical engineering at the University of Tabriz before graduating top of his class in the master's program in Aerospace Engineering and Satellite Technology at Iran University of Science and Technology.

He was a leading young specialist in the field and worked at a scientific organization focused on satellite technology before intelligence agents from the elite IRGC arrested him in February 2025. So the case predates the current war, but is highly significant amid the US pressure campaign.

State Mizan agency went on to allege that Shakourzadeh was "a joint CIA and Mossad spy," stating that he had been recruited "as a project and due to his expertise."

CBS has said he's the latest death in a growing list of espionage cases:

He is the fifth person to be executed on espionage charges since the beginning of the war in late February.

Authorities have also since then executed 13 men charged over January protests, one more over 2022 demonstrations and 10 accused of links to banned opposition groups, according to IHR.

President Trump had weeks ago personally highlighted that eight women protesters were also set to be executed, but that he intervened with Iranian officials and threatened more military action, effectively stopping it.

However, Trump's claims have been largely debunked. It has been confirmed that at least one among the eight is real and is likely in prison, but other details concerning the group of women have not been established or else outright disproven.

Iran executed Erfan Shakourzadeh, a 29-year-old aerospace engineering master's student at Iran University of Science and Technology who worked on satellite projects.

He was convicted of espionage for the CIA and Mossad, accused of sharing classified satellite data, employee… pic.twitter.com/q1C1kFHl0g

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

But it does remain clear that Iran has been busy hunting down alleged collaborators, also after Mossad and Israeli officials have time and again openly boasted that they are working with individuals and networks on the ground inside Iran.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:40

Iran Executes Top Young Aerospace Scientist, Alleging CIA & Mossad Ties

Iran has executed 29-year-old aerospace engineer Erfan Shakourzadeh on Monday on espionage charges despite his protestations that authorities tortured him into giving a false confession, according to a prison note published before his execution, as recounted in Western press reports.

Iranian judiciary's Mizan Online website announced and confirmed the execution, describing that he was hanged after being convicted for allegedly collaborating with the CIA and Israel's Mossad intelligence service.

Various human rights organizations have rejected the validity of the charges, and have decried his execution, having for weeks raised the alarm that he was on death row.

Shakourzadeh studied electrical engineering at the University of Tabriz before graduating top of his class in the master's program in Aerospace Engineering and Satellite Technology at Iran University of Science and Technology.

He was a leading young specialist in the field and worked at a scientific organization focused on satellite technology before intelligence agents from the elite IRGC arrested him in February 2025. So the case predates the current war, but is highly significant amid the US pressure campaign.

State Mizan agency went on to allege that Shakourzadeh was "a joint CIA and Mossad spy," stating that he had been recruited "as a project and due to his expertise."

CBS has said he's the latest death in a growing list of espionage cases:

He is the fifth person to be executed on espionage charges since the beginning of the war in late February.

Authorities have also since then executed 13 men charged over January protests, one more over 2022 demonstrations and 10 accused of links to banned opposition groups, according to IHR.

President Trump had weeks ago personally highlighted that eight women protesters were also set to be executed, but that he intervened with Iranian officials and threatened more military action, effectively stopping it.

However, Trump's claims have been largely debunked. It has been confirmed that at least one among the eight is real and is likely in prison, but other details concerning the group of women have not been established or else outright disproven.

Iran executed Erfan Shakourzadeh, a 29-year-old aerospace engineering master's student at Iran University of Science and Technology who worked on satellite projects.

He was convicted of espionage for the CIA and Mossad, accused of sharing classified satellite data, employee… pic.twitter.com/q1C1kFHl0g

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

But it does remain clear that Iran has been busy hunting down alleged collaborators, also after Mossad and Israeli officials have time and again openly boasted that they are working with individuals and networks on the ground inside Iran.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:40

China's Car Sales Slump As Gasoline Demand Craters

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Chinese car sales in China fell by 21.5% in April, driven by lower demand for gasoline-powered vehicles amid higher fuel prices. EV demand failed to offset the drop in internal combustion engine vehicle sales, as well.

According to Bloomberg data, total car sales in China last month hit 1.4 million. This was the lowest since 2022, when China was still in the grip of Covid lockdowns. Internal combustion engine car sales suffered a decline of over 30%, while EV and hybrid car sales fell by a more modest 6.8%. EV sales suffered as a result of a rollback of subsidies and the reintroduction of a tax on what China calls new energy vehicles.

As a result of the slump in gasoline car sales, new energy vehicles came to account for 60% of new car sales last month. This is the highest monthly portion of EVs and hybrids of total new car sales.

In addition to the fuel prices, subsidy removal, and the return of taxes on EVs, China’s car sales declined as a result of weaker purchasing power - another consequence of the war in the Middle East.

The energy crisis has slowed down China’s economic growth, prompting job cuts and lower wages, which have in turn affected consumers’ spending appetite, Bloomberg noted in its report.

China has the world’s largest crude oil stockpiles, estimated at between 1 billion barrels and up to 1.3 billion barrels. This provides the country with quite solid insulation against supply shocks - even though it has not prevented retail fuel prices from moving higher.

Thanks to this reserve cushion and its diversification policies, despite being the top crude importer in the world, China is less exposed to the Hormuz crisis than many other buyers in Asia, including India and the developed economies of Japan and South Korea. India relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its crude supply, while Japan’s dependence is a massive 90%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:15

China's Car Sales Slump As Gasoline Demand Craters

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Chinese car sales in China fell by 21.5% in April, driven by lower demand for gasoline-powered vehicles amid higher fuel prices. EV demand failed to offset the drop in internal combustion engine vehicle sales, as well.

According to Bloomberg data, total car sales in China last month hit 1.4 million. This was the lowest since 2022, when China was still in the grip of Covid lockdowns. Internal combustion engine car sales suffered a decline of over 30%, while EV and hybrid car sales fell by a more modest 6.8%. EV sales suffered as a result of a rollback of subsidies and the reintroduction of a tax on what China calls new energy vehicles.

As a result of the slump in gasoline car sales, new energy vehicles came to account for 60% of new car sales last month. This is the highest monthly portion of EVs and hybrids of total new car sales.

In addition to the fuel prices, subsidy removal, and the return of taxes on EVs, China’s car sales declined as a result of weaker purchasing power - another consequence of the war in the Middle East.

The energy crisis has slowed down China’s economic growth, prompting job cuts and lower wages, which have in turn affected consumers’ spending appetite, Bloomberg noted in its report.

China has the world’s largest crude oil stockpiles, estimated at between 1 billion barrels and up to 1.3 billion barrels. This provides the country with quite solid insulation against supply shocks - even though it has not prevented retail fuel prices from moving higher.

Thanks to this reserve cushion and its diversification policies, despite being the top crude importer in the world, China is less exposed to the Hormuz crisis than many other buyers in Asia, including India and the developed economies of Japan and South Korea. India relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its crude supply, while Japan’s dependence is a massive 90%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 19:15

Trump Floats Making Venezuela The 51st State

First Canada, then Greenland… and now Venezuela?

President Donald Trump said Monday he is seriously considering annexing the South American nation as the 51st U.S. state, citing the country’s vast oil reserves and what he described as strong local support for his leadership.

In a telephone interview with Fox News anchor John Roberts, Trump mused that he is weighing the move for a nation that holds an estimated $40 trillion in oil resources.

NEW: President Trump tells @FoxNews colleague @johnrobertsFox in a phone call just now that he is “seriously considering making Venezuela the 51st US state”, adding that there is $40 trillion in oil there and “Venezuela loves Trump”.

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) May 11, 2026

“Venezuela loves Trump,” the president told the reporter.

The suggestion comes months after U.S. forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela in January that resulted in the capture of longtime President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The couple was extradited to the U.S. to face narco-terrorism and weapons charges, effectively ending more than a decade of socialist rule that had transformed one of Latin America’s richest economies into an economic disaster marked by hyperinflation, mass emigration and the breakdown of public services.

Rather than installing opposition figure María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, as the new leader, the Trump administration supported the installation of Delcy Rodríguez—Maduro’s former vice president—as interim president. Trump has described the arrangement as “spectacular” and predicted a rapid economic turnaround.

Rodríguez’s government has moved swiftly on economic reforms. Within weeks of taking power, it enacted legislation opening the oil sector to privatization, dismantling core elements of the Chavista model that had dominated for more than two decades.

Meanwhile, commercial activity has accelerated thanks to Chevron, which signed two agreements expanding its participation in a joint venture with state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA in the Orinoco Oil Belt, Reuters reported at the time.

Venezuelan oil output is already rising.

PDVSA reported production of 1.095 million barrels a day last month, up 75,000 barrels a day from February, with Oil Minister Paula Henao setting a target of 1.3 million barrels a day by year-end.
Trump administration officials have been candid about the financial stakes.

A White House spokesman called the first $500 million portion of an approximately $2 billion oil-supply agreement a “historic energy deal,” CBS News reported at the time. Trump has said the U.S. would rebuild Venezuela “in a very profitable way,” adding, “We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:50

Trump Floats Making Venezuela The 51st State

First Canada, then Greenland… and now Venezuela?

President Donald Trump said Monday he is seriously considering annexing the South American nation as the 51st U.S. state, citing the country’s vast oil reserves and what he described as strong local support for his leadership.

In a telephone interview with Fox News anchor John Roberts, Trump mused that he is weighing the move for a nation that holds an estimated $40 trillion in oil resources.

NEW: President Trump tells @FoxNews colleague @johnrobertsFox in a phone call just now that he is “seriously considering making Venezuela the 51st US state”, adding that there is $40 trillion in oil there and “Venezuela loves Trump”.

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) May 11, 2026

“Venezuela loves Trump,” the president told the reporter.

The suggestion comes months after U.S. forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela in January that resulted in the capture of longtime President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The couple was extradited to the U.S. to face narco-terrorism and weapons charges, effectively ending more than a decade of socialist rule that had transformed one of Latin America’s richest economies into an economic disaster marked by hyperinflation, mass emigration and the breakdown of public services.

Rather than installing opposition figure María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, as the new leader, the Trump administration supported the installation of Delcy Rodríguez—Maduro’s former vice president—as interim president. Trump has described the arrangement as “spectacular” and predicted a rapid economic turnaround.

Rodríguez’s government has moved swiftly on economic reforms. Within weeks of taking power, it enacted legislation opening the oil sector to privatization, dismantling core elements of the Chavista model that had dominated for more than two decades.

Meanwhile, commercial activity has accelerated thanks to Chevron, which signed two agreements expanding its participation in a joint venture with state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA in the Orinoco Oil Belt, Reuters reported at the time.

Venezuelan oil output is already rising.

PDVSA reported production of 1.095 million barrels a day last month, up 75,000 barrels a day from February, with Oil Minister Paula Henao setting a target of 1.3 million barrels a day by year-end.
Trump administration officials have been candid about the financial stakes.

A White House spokesman called the first $500 million portion of an approximately $2 billion oil-supply agreement a “historic energy deal,” CBS News reported at the time. Trump has said the U.S. would rebuild Venezuela “in a very profitable way,” adding, “We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:50

'Mediator' Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Aircraft To Insulate Them From US Attacks, Graham Fumes At Islamabad Summary

• CBS reports Pakistan sheltered Iranian military planes, Sen. Graham outraged, calls for 'reevaluation'.

• US President blasts 'piece of garbage' Iran response, says ceasefire on 'life support', reportedly mulls renewed military action; US Treasury imposes yet more sanctions.

• Trump mulls restarting Project Freedom in Hormuz and says forcibly retrieving 'nuclear dust' is still on the table, oil jumps on headline.

• Iran Foreign Ministry: "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials insist on their "unreasonable demands."

• Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.

• Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through - an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Planes To Insulate Them From US Attacks

There's been some outrage in D.C. and among the pundit class over a late in the day Monday CBS News report alleging that US-ally Pakistan allowed Iran to park military aircraft at its airfields, and thus outside the US-Israeli strike zone during Operation Epic Fury:

As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. 

Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan. It was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights, two of the officials told CBS News. 

President Trump and admin officials have repeatedly declared the utter and total destruction of Iran's air force and navy, but apparently some planes were missed. According to more from CBS: 

Together, the movements reflected an apparent effort to insulate some of Iran's remaining military and aviation assets from the expanding conflict, even as officials publicly served as brokers for de-escalation. 

The U.S. officials, who all spoke only under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues, told CBS News that days after President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran in early April, Tehran sent multiple aircraft to Pakistan Air Force Base Nur Khan, a strategically important military installation located just outside the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi. 

Among the first to very angrily vent outrage is you know who from South Carolina...

If this reporting is accurate, it would require a complete reevaluation of the role Pakistan is playing as mediator between Iran, the United States and other parties.

Given some of the prior statements by Pakistani defense officials towards Israel, I would not be shocked if… https://t.co/OqJ1cdVLFX

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 11, 2026

US Rolls Out Yet More Sanctions, & Connected to China

Per Reuters on Monday afternoon: "The U.S. government on Monday announced sanctions against three people and nine companies, including four based ​in Hong Kong and four in the ‌United Arab Emirates, for aiding Iran's shipment of oil to China. The ninth company is based in Oman."

"The Treasury move follows ​sanctions announced on Friday on individuals and companies aiding Iranian ​purchases of weapons and components used to make ⁠drones and ballistic missiles," the report adds. These new measures target some Iran-linked entities in Hong Kong/China.

As there's not a whole lot to still sanction inside Iran, it looks like the US Treasury is focused on taking aim on external entities, though this is sure to increase Washington tensions with Beijing...

As Iran’s military desperately tries to regroup, Economic Fury will continue to deprive the regime of funding for its weapons programs, terrorist proxies, and nuclear ambitions. Treasury will continue to cut the Iranian regime off from the financial networks it uses to carry out… https://t.co/nenSlWtW8T

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) May 11, 2026

Trump Mulls Military Action As Ceasefire On "Life Support"

President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked on Sunday, three U.S. officials told Axios.

U.S. officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program puts the military option back on the table.

This sent oil prices back to the highs of the day...

President Trump also told Fox, that he sees a 1% chance of an Iran deal materializing and succeeding, as even the ceasefire is one of "the weakest, on life support":

President Donald Trump called out the "piece of garbage" peace proposal from Iran on Monday from the Oval Office, saying only "stupid people" in Iran are questioning his resolve in guaranteeing Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

The latest Iranian proposal reneged on a past vow to give up enriched uranium.

None of this bodes well for the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz opening up anytime soon. Oil prices have reflected general pessimism at the start of this week.

Trump Might Fully Restart Project Freedom

Fox News is reporting that President Trump is considering renewing Project Freedom, pushing oil up. According to the developing story:

President Donald Trump has stated in an interview with Fox News that he is considering renewing Project Freedom, a military operation originally launched to secure the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This operation, involving significant U.S. naval assets, had been paused amid diplomatic efforts with Iran. The initial pause was influenced by diplomatic progress mediated by Pakistan, although recent developments suggest a potential escalation.

However, the reality is that the de facto US naval blockade has remained in place. The Iranians last week fired on US warships which were escorting foreign vessels through the strait. Since then there's been an uneasy calm amid stalled negotiations. There's really no movement on either side. Trump indicated in the fresh comments that all of this could be part of a larger operation, and strangely a bit of a contradictory stance: he said of Iran's "hardline leaders" that "they are going to fold" and that "I will deal with them until they make a deal". Of course, the very label of 'hardline' would suggest the opposite. 

The same Fox correspondent was told by Trump that forcibly retrieving Iran's 'nuclear dust' is still on the table:

.@realDonaldTrump Also told me that Iranian negotiators told him the US will have to retrieve the "nuclear dust" at Iran's destroyed facilities as Iran does not have the technology to do it. pic.twitter.com/2GgLVdQQoL

— John Roberts (@johnrobertsFox) May 11, 2026

'Unreasonable Demands'

It is clear there remains a huge gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran, after the past days saw proposal and counterproposal submitted via Pakistan, with the White House issuing its final response over the weekend, as President Trump called it 'unacceptable'.

According to new Monday words from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials continue to insist on their "unreasonable demands," Baghaei stressed. He described that Iran’s demands for the war to stop, for the US to lift its blockade, and the release Iran’s frozen assets, remain legitimate. Further, Tehran is demanding safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, along with establishing security in the region and in Lebanon.

Senior Iranian military official Mohsen Rezaee to Tasnim: There Is No Clear Prospect for a Political Agreement With the United States

"Unfortunately, the US continues to insist on its one-sided view," Baghaei added of the "reasonable, generous offer" built around Iran’s national interests. Iran has strongly suggested that the US is actually too influenced by driving Israeli interests, not American priorities. 

But per WSJ, Washington's focus remains on the nuclear issue, which Iran considers a non-starter in negotiations: "The president on Sunday said a multipage response that Iran sent to the U.S. proposal to end the war, which didn’t include commitments about Tehran’s nuclear program, was unacceptable," the publication writes.

Iran's FM Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei:

Iran has proven to be a responsible power in the region, and at the same time, we are not bullies — rather, we are anti-bullies. Just look at our conduct.

Were we the ones who launched a military campaign against America thousands of miles… pic.twitter.com/q6fz3fi75A

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

KSA Condemns Sunday Drone Attacks

Saudi Arabia has condemned and blasted Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday, according to a new Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE had intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar said a drone attack hit a cargo ‌ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait in turn also said its air defenses had engaged hostile drones that entered its airspace. Kuwait, which borders Iran, has become a kind of front line for Iranian attacks and drone activity.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated its support and backing of all measures taken by Gulf states to protect their security and stability, saying, "The Kingdom demands an immediate halt to the blatant attacks on the territories and territorial waters of Gulf states, and to any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt international waterways."

"It emphasizes the importance of adhering to the protection of international maritime routes in accordance with relevant international laws," the ministry added.

Qatari LNG Tanker Abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz Chokepoint After Weekend Transit Breakthrough

Sunday's response by Trump to Iran's counterproposal pushed WTI crude futures nearly 3% higher to $98 a barrel as traders raised the war-risk premium tied to a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s counterproposal dominated attention over the weekend, but shipping activity in the region also drew focus after Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski cited vessel-tracking data showing that an LNG tanker successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.

The shipment marked the first time Qatar exported LNG through the strait since the war began ten weeks earlier. The tanker later docked in Pakistan. By Monday morning, Stapczynski reported that another fully loaded LNG tanker, “Mihzem,” was approaching the waterway. "Another Qatar LNG shipment is nearing the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan," Stapczynski wrote on X. He added, "Pakistan is dealing with a gas shortage, and has negotiated with Iran for several LNG shipments. If successful, this would be the second LNG cargo to transit Hormuz for Pakistan in a few days." 

Stapczynski's X post and report about the second Qatar LNG tanker attempting to transit the maritime chokepoint came early Monday. By 0700 ET, new ship-tracking data showed that the Mihzem abruptly reversed course roughly 20 miles before reaching Hormuz Island.

Tanker Leaking

There is a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz spotted leaking a trail of oil, after a potential hostile strike. The incident, picked up by satellite monitoring, comes also amid reports of a large oil slick near Kharg Island; however, the Iranians have denied that the Kharg incident is a large-scale leak or oil slick.

Here's what Tanker Trackers has commented on the below open sources satellite data and imagery (first struck on May 4):

The VLCC supertanker you see in the video below is BARAKAH (9902615). She is owned by UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC); the country’s state-owned oil & gas producer. BARAKAH was struck by Iranian drones on 2026-05-04, which is when we found her in this state on satellite imagery for clients. She’s empty of oil cargo following a secret transfer she had to conduct east of UAE to another tanker. She was struck once heading back west to fetch more oil. ADNOC condemned the attacks.

Satellite imagery appears to show a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz leaking a trail of oil following a possible strike. Intense small speedboat activity can also be seen nearby.

Explore and Compare: https://t.co/BFXDgfBrjK#StraitofHormuz #Iran #MiddleEast pic.twitter.com/UDizD4Lejn

— Soar (@SoarAtlas) May 11, 2026

Netanyahu Holds Security Meeting, Amid Lebanon Escalation

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening a high level security meeting in his office in Jerusalem on Monday, according to The Times of Israel. The meeting comes after President Trump rejected Iran’s response to his ceasefire proposal, and ahead of direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington later this week. The Lebanon front has intensified, and IDF warplanes have heavily bombed not only southern Lebanon but the Beirut suburbs over the last days. Hezbollah drone attacks have become increasingly deadly in the meantime, with many serious injuries but also this latest:

An IDF reservist was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack in northern Israel, the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday. The slain soldier was named as Warrant Officer (res.) Alexander Glovanyov, 47, a driver in the Transport Center’s 6924th Battalion, from Petah Tikva.

The attack took place around 4 p.m. on Sunday, when several explosive-laden drones launched by Hezbollah struck in Israeli territory near Manara, close to the border with Lebanon. One of the drones killed Glovanyov, according to an IDF probe.

Iran Still Wants Comprehensive Deal to Include Lebanon

Responsible Statecraft writes, "No new developments on the Lebanese front give reason for optimism that this round will yield an agreement that two prior rounds did not. The Trump administration, however, has an incentive to push for an agreement because of President Trump’s need to extract himself and the United States from the impasse involving the Strait of Hormuz."

"The fighting on the Lebanese front since then has been as one-sided in the resulting death and destruction as Israeli combat with Palestinians," the publication observes. "The Israeli assault has killed 2,700 people in Lebanon, while Israeli fatalities have been 18 military personnel and two civilians. At the height of the offensive, more than a million people — about a fifth of Lebanon’s population — were displaced, and most remain so. Israeli forces have destroyed entire villages in southern Lebanon."

⚡️Hezbollah drone strike on Israel soldiers near southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/OD8dZndMry

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 10, 2026

Iran continues to insist that any broader Iran war truce must encompass Lebanon as the conflict there flows out of the one in the Persian Gulf region. Al Jazeera meanwhile reports of the latest Monday: "Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon continues as Hezbollah claims more attacks on Israeli troops. The Lebanese Health Ministry says Israeli attacks in the past 24 hours have killed 51 people, including two medical workers."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:45

'Mediator' Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Aircraft To Insulate Them From US Attacks, Graham Fumes At Islamabad Summary

• CBS reports Pakistan sheltered Iranian military planes, Sen. Graham outraged, calls for 'reevaluation'.

• US President blasts 'piece of garbage' Iran response, says ceasefire on 'life support', reportedly mulls renewed military action; US Treasury imposes yet more sanctions.

• Trump mulls restarting Project Freedom in Hormuz and says forcibly retrieving 'nuclear dust' is still on the table, oil jumps on headline.

• Iran Foreign Ministry: "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials insist on their "unreasonable demands."

• Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.

• Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through - an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 40% · No 61%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Planes To Insulate Them From US Attacks

There's been some outrage in D.C. and among the pundit class over a late in the day Monday CBS News report alleging that US-ally Pakistan allowed Iran to park military aircraft at its airfields, and thus outside the US-Israeli strike zone during Operation Epic Fury:

As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. 

Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan. It was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights, two of the officials told CBS News. 

President Trump and admin officials have repeatedly declared the utter and total destruction of Iran's air force and navy, but apparently some planes were missed. According to more from CBS: 

Together, the movements reflected an apparent effort to insulate some of Iran's remaining military and aviation assets from the expanding conflict, even as officials publicly served as brokers for de-escalation. 

The U.S. officials, who all spoke only under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues, told CBS News that days after President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran in early April, Tehran sent multiple aircraft to Pakistan Air Force Base Nur Khan, a strategically important military installation located just outside the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi. 

Among the first to very angrily vent outrage is you know who from South Carolina...

If this reporting is accurate, it would require a complete reevaluation of the role Pakistan is playing as mediator between Iran, the United States and other parties.

Given some of the prior statements by Pakistani defense officials towards Israel, I would not be shocked if… https://t.co/OqJ1cdVLFX

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 11, 2026

US Rolls Out Yet More Sanctions, & Connected to China

Per Reuters on Monday afternoon: "The U.S. government on Monday announced sanctions against three people and nine companies, including four based ​in Hong Kong and four in the ‌United Arab Emirates, for aiding Iran's shipment of oil to China. The ninth company is based in Oman."

"The Treasury move follows ​sanctions announced on Friday on individuals and companies aiding Iranian ​purchases of weapons and components used to make ⁠drones and ballistic missiles," the report adds. These new measures target some Iran-linked entities in Hong Kong/China.

As there's not a whole lot to still sanction inside Iran, it looks like the US Treasury is focused on taking aim on external entities, though this is sure to increase Washington tensions with Beijing...

As Iran’s military desperately tries to regroup, Economic Fury will continue to deprive the regime of funding for its weapons programs, terrorist proxies, and nuclear ambitions. Treasury will continue to cut the Iranian regime off from the financial networks it uses to carry out… https://t.co/nenSlWtW8T

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) May 11, 2026

Trump Mulls Military Action As Ceasefire On "Life Support"

President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked on Sunday, three U.S. officials told Axios.

U.S. officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program puts the military option back on the table.

This sent oil prices back to the highs of the day...

President Trump also told Fox, that he sees a 1% chance of an Iran deal materializing and succeeding, as even the ceasefire is one of "the weakest, on life support":

President Donald Trump called out the "piece of garbage" peace proposal from Iran on Monday from the Oval Office, saying only "stupid people" in Iran are questioning his resolve in guaranteeing Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

The latest Iranian proposal reneged on a past vow to give up enriched uranium.

None of this bodes well for the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz opening up anytime soon. Oil prices have reflected general pessimism at the start of this week.

Trump Might Fully Restart Project Freedom

Fox News is reporting that President Trump is considering renewing Project Freedom, pushing oil up. According to the developing story:

President Donald Trump has stated in an interview with Fox News that he is considering renewing Project Freedom, a military operation originally launched to secure the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This operation, involving significant U.S. naval assets, had been paused amid diplomatic efforts with Iran. The initial pause was influenced by diplomatic progress mediated by Pakistan, although recent developments suggest a potential escalation.

However, the reality is that the de facto US naval blockade has remained in place. The Iranians last week fired on US warships which were escorting foreign vessels through the strait. Since then there's been an uneasy calm amid stalled negotiations. There's really no movement on either side. Trump indicated in the fresh comments that all of this could be part of a larger operation, and strangely a bit of a contradictory stance: he said of Iran's "hardline leaders" that "they are going to fold" and that "I will deal with them until they make a deal". Of course, the very label of 'hardline' would suggest the opposite. 

The same Fox correspondent was told by Trump that forcibly retrieving Iran's 'nuclear dust' is still on the table:

.@realDonaldTrump Also told me that Iranian negotiators told him the US will have to retrieve the "nuclear dust" at Iran's destroyed facilities as Iran does not have the technology to do it. pic.twitter.com/2GgLVdQQoL

— John Roberts (@johnrobertsFox) May 11, 2026

'Unreasonable Demands'

It is clear there remains a huge gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran, after the past days saw proposal and counterproposal submitted via Pakistan, with the White House issuing its final response over the weekend, as President Trump called it 'unacceptable'.

According to new Monday words from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials continue to insist on their "unreasonable demands," Baghaei stressed. He described that Iran’s demands for the war to stop, for the US to lift its blockade, and the release Iran’s frozen assets, remain legitimate. Further, Tehran is demanding safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, along with establishing security in the region and in Lebanon.

Senior Iranian military official Mohsen Rezaee to Tasnim: There Is No Clear Prospect for a Political Agreement With the United States

"Unfortunately, the US continues to insist on its one-sided view," Baghaei added of the "reasonable, generous offer" built around Iran’s national interests. Iran has strongly suggested that the US is actually too influenced by driving Israeli interests, not American priorities. 

But per WSJ, Washington's focus remains on the nuclear issue, which Iran considers a non-starter in negotiations: "The president on Sunday said a multipage response that Iran sent to the U.S. proposal to end the war, which didn’t include commitments about Tehran’s nuclear program, was unacceptable," the publication writes.

Iran's FM Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei:

Iran has proven to be a responsible power in the region, and at the same time, we are not bullies — rather, we are anti-bullies. Just look at our conduct.

Were we the ones who launched a military campaign against America thousands of miles… pic.twitter.com/q6fz3fi75A

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 11, 2026

KSA Condemns Sunday Drone Attacks

Saudi Arabia has condemned and blasted Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday, according to a new Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE had intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar said a drone attack hit a cargo ‌ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait in turn also said its air defenses had engaged hostile drones that entered its airspace. Kuwait, which borders Iran, has become a kind of front line for Iranian attacks and drone activity.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated its support and backing of all measures taken by Gulf states to protect their security and stability, saying, "The Kingdom demands an immediate halt to the blatant attacks on the territories and territorial waters of Gulf states, and to any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt international waterways."

"It emphasizes the importance of adhering to the protection of international maritime routes in accordance with relevant international laws," the ministry added.

Qatari LNG Tanker Abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz Chokepoint After Weekend Transit Breakthrough

Sunday's response by Trump to Iran's counterproposal pushed WTI crude futures nearly 3% higher to $98 a barrel as traders raised the war-risk premium tied to a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s counterproposal dominated attention over the weekend, but shipping activity in the region also drew focus after Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski cited vessel-tracking data showing that an LNG tanker successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.

The shipment marked the first time Qatar exported LNG through the strait since the war began ten weeks earlier. The tanker later docked in Pakistan. By Monday morning, Stapczynski reported that another fully loaded LNG tanker, “Mihzem,” was approaching the waterway. "Another Qatar LNG shipment is nearing the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan," Stapczynski wrote on X. He added, "Pakistan is dealing with a gas shortage, and has negotiated with Iran for several LNG shipments. If successful, this would be the second LNG cargo to transit Hormuz for Pakistan in a few days." 

Stapczynski's X post and report about the second Qatar LNG tanker attempting to transit the maritime chokepoint came early Monday. By 0700 ET, new ship-tracking data showed that the Mihzem abruptly reversed course roughly 20 miles before reaching Hormuz Island.

Tanker Leaking

There is a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz spotted leaking a trail of oil, after a potential hostile strike. The incident, picked up by satellite monitoring, comes also amid reports of a large oil slick near Kharg Island; however, the Iranians have denied that the Kharg incident is a large-scale leak or oil slick.

Here's what Tanker Trackers has commented on the below open sources satellite data and imagery (first struck on May 4):

The VLCC supertanker you see in the video below is BARAKAH (9902615). She is owned by UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC); the country’s state-owned oil & gas producer. BARAKAH was struck by Iranian drones on 2026-05-04, which is when we found her in this state on satellite imagery for clients. She’s empty of oil cargo following a secret transfer she had to conduct east of UAE to another tanker. She was struck once heading back west to fetch more oil. ADNOC condemned the attacks.

Satellite imagery appears to show a large oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz leaking a trail of oil following a possible strike. Intense small speedboat activity can also be seen nearby.

Explore and Compare: https://t.co/BFXDgfBrjK#StraitofHormuz #Iran #MiddleEast pic.twitter.com/UDizD4Lejn

— Soar (@SoarAtlas) May 11, 2026

Netanyahu Holds Security Meeting, Amid Lebanon Escalation

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening a high level security meeting in his office in Jerusalem on Monday, according to The Times of Israel. The meeting comes after President Trump rejected Iran’s response to his ceasefire proposal, and ahead of direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington later this week. The Lebanon front has intensified, and IDF warplanes have heavily bombed not only southern Lebanon but the Beirut suburbs over the last days. Hezbollah drone attacks have become increasingly deadly in the meantime, with many serious injuries but also this latest:

An IDF reservist was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack in northern Israel, the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday. The slain soldier was named as Warrant Officer (res.) Alexander Glovanyov, 47, a driver in the Transport Center’s 6924th Battalion, from Petah Tikva.

The attack took place around 4 p.m. on Sunday, when several explosive-laden drones launched by Hezbollah struck in Israeli territory near Manara, close to the border with Lebanon. One of the drones killed Glovanyov, according to an IDF probe.

Iran Still Wants Comprehensive Deal to Include Lebanon

Responsible Statecraft writes, "No new developments on the Lebanese front give reason for optimism that this round will yield an agreement that two prior rounds did not. The Trump administration, however, has an incentive to push for an agreement because of President Trump’s need to extract himself and the United States from the impasse involving the Strait of Hormuz."

"The fighting on the Lebanese front since then has been as one-sided in the resulting death and destruction as Israeli combat with Palestinians," the publication observes. "The Israeli assault has killed 2,700 people in Lebanon, while Israeli fatalities have been 18 military personnel and two civilians. At the height of the offensive, more than a million people — about a fifth of Lebanon’s population — were displaced, and most remain so. Israeli forces have destroyed entire villages in southern Lebanon."

⚡️Hezbollah drone strike on Israel soldiers near southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/OD8dZndMry

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 10, 2026

Iran continues to insist that any broader Iran war truce must encompass Lebanon as the conflict there flows out of the one in the Persian Gulf region. Al Jazeera meanwhile reports of the latest Monday: "Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon continues as Hezbollah claims more attacks on Israeli troops. The Lebanese Health Ministry says Israeli attacks in the past 24 hours have killed 51 people, including two medical workers."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:45

US To Develop Small Modular Nuclear Reactors For Commercial Shipping

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The United States is seeking to develop small modular nuclear reactors (SMR) for commercial vessels that would potentially bring down shipping costs, the Department of Transportation (DOT) said in a May 7 statement.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy speaks at a press conference at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on Oct. 28, 2025. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

The initiative, launched by DOT Secretary Sean P. Duffy and the Maritime Administration (MARAD), has issued a Request for Information (RFI) for this purpose. An RFI is a formal document to gather preliminary information regarding a good or service from suppliers. In this specific case, the purpose of the RFI is to investigate whether the advancements in SMR technology and other developments are “usable, scalable, and can be made commercially viable,” according to the RFI published in the Federal Register on May 7.

SMRs have a power generation capacity of up to 300 megawatts, which is roughly a third of the traditionally larger nuclear power reactors. While the big reactors are typically custom-designed for a specific location, SMRs can be manufactured as pre-fabricated units and then transported and installed at any location.

MARAD is calling on industry stakeholders and innovators to help in the development of an SMR model that would revitalize the U.S. shipping industry, cut down transportation costs, and secure energy dominance, the DOT statement said.

“To successfully introduce SMRs, we must view this through a system-transition lens rather than just as a technology demonstration,” MARAD Administrator Stephen M. Carmel said.

“We are seeking critical insights on how the government can help reduce systemic uncertainty, align regulatory structures, and enable the market conditions necessary for private capital and operators to scale these groundbreaking technologies.”

The federal government is seeking inputs from the industry to advance the development of SMRs that would mostly eliminate fuel costs and minimize maintenance requirements, identify streamlined methods to deploy nuclear power across the nation’s fleets and logistical networks, integrate SMR production into American shipyards, and set up liability, inspection, and insurance frameworks on this matter.

MARAD is collaborating with the DOT, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the U.S. Coast Guard to support the development of SMRs.

According to the DOT, the SMR initiative advances two of President Donald Trump’s executive orders—Unleashing American Energy issued on Jan. 20, 2025, and Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance issued on April 9, 2025.

The Jan. 20 order instructed the heads of all agencies to review regulations, policies, and orders that impose “undue burden” on the identification, development, or use of domestic energy resources, including nuclear power.

The April 9 order said it is the policy of the United States to rebuild and revitalize America’s maritime industries and workforce to ensure economic prosperity and safeguard national security.

Commenting on the SMR initiative, Duffy said that “under President Trump’s leadership, the U.S. is reclaiming its rightful place as a global sea power.”

“To secure this future for America’s shipbuilding industry, we need to innovate. By partnering with industry experts and outside-the-box thinkers to develop a strong SMR model, we will deliver a state-of-the-art energy source that cuts costs and bolsters national security—all at the Speed of Trump,” the DOT secretary said.

SMR Concerns

Despite the potential of SMRs, there are concerns about deploying the technology.

A December 2025 study published in the Energy Research and Social Science journal highlighted that the high upfront costs of deploying SMRs could require injecting public subsidies into such programs.

“Diverting public investment into new small-scale nuclear projects may deprive communities of funding for other urgent priorities such as healthcare, education, and renewable energy alternatives,” the study said.

As for employment opportunities, “although construction and initial operation phases generate employment, these opportunities diminish over time as SMR plants typically require fewer personnel for ongoing maintenance and operation. This raises questions about whether the socio-economic benefits such projects are purported to bring are equitably distributed,” it said.

Meanwhile, big tech companies, such as Amazon and Google, have announced plans regarding the construction of SMRs or buying nuclear power from such facilities.

The U.S. military is looking at deploying microreactors, a subset of SMRs that can typically generate 20 megawatts or less of electricity, according to an April 27 statement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

For instance, the Army launched the Janus Program in October 2025, aimed at building microreactors, and has already selected nine potential bases to house them.

The Air Force is planning to set up its first microreactor at Alaska’s Eielson Air Force Base, while the Navy is soliciting offers to power its installations with SMRs and microreactors, the EIA said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:25

Modi Urges Indians To Conserve Fuel As Oil Shock Spreads

India’s Prime Minister called on the nation to work from home, travel less, and conserve fuel to help the government save foreign exchange, OilPrice reported.

“In the current situation, we must place great emphasis on saving foreign exchange,” Narendra Modi said, as quoted by Reuters. The prime minister also urged Indians to stop buying gold, again to conserve foreign exchange. Modi also called on farmers to reduce their fertilizer use by as much as 50%.

CNBC recalls that India spent $174.9 billion on crude oil and refined product imports in the financial year that ended on March 31, as its import bill swelled amid the oil price jump prompted by the war in the Middle East. Another $72 billion was spent on gold imports over the period.

Since then, oil prices have risen further, with Brent crude topping $105 per barrel again earlier today, after President Donal Trump rejected Iran’s response to a peace plan he proposed last week. Trump called Iran’s version of the peace deal “totally unacceptable”, dampening hopes of a swift resolution of the war. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $100 per barrel at the time of writing.

More than 40 India-bound vessels, nearly half of which carry energy products, are still trapped in the Persian Gulf, unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, officials told India last week. The ships are laden with crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and LNG, as well as fertilizer and other products. A total of 13 ships flagged to India are still stuck west of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Indian government.

India relies on the Middle East for as much as 50% of its crude oil imports and 60% of its liquefied natural gas imports.

Dependence is the heaviest in liquefied petroleum gas, however, which Indians use for cooking. In LPG, India is almost entirely dependent on the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:00

No, AI Won't Make Money Obsolete

Authored by Peter Earle via the American Institute for Economic Research,

The notion that artificial intelligence (AI) at full bloom might eliminate the need for money reflects a deep confusion about what money is and does. Money is not merely a barter-avoiding convenience layered onto an otherwise frictionless world. It is a solution to fundamental problems of exchange, profound difficulties in coordination, and comparison of alternatives under scarcity. Even in a hypothetical future defined by extraordinary productivity gains and broadly collapsing prices, those underlying problems do not disappear. Instead, they change form, and for as long as scarcity, tradeoffs, and uncertainty persist in any domain, so too will the need for money.

To begin with, the most basic point: Scarcity is not abolished by abundance. It is displaced. AI may dramatically reduce the cost of producing many goods and services, particularly those that are digital or easily replicable. But large swaths of economic life remain governed by constraints vastly beyond the power of computation. Land is fixed. Location is inherently scarce. Prime real estate in places like New York City or Tokyo will not become abundant simply because construction costs fall precipitously. The same holds for proximity to infrastructure, culture, or social networks. These are rival, excludable goods, and in such conditions, exchange requires a mechanism for allocating access. Money remains the most efficient one yet developed.

Time is another irreducible constraint. Human attention, especially in its highest-value forms, cannot and will not scale infinitely. The time of a skilled surgeon, an experienced trial lawyer, or a sought-after performer remains finite, tentative, and rivalrous. Even if AI were to augment a person’s capabilities, it does not eliminate the fact that the person’s attention must be allocated among competing uses. The same applies to live experiences: concerts, events, one-on-one advisory relationships, and so on, where presence itself is scarce. In such contexts, prices are not a relic—they are a reflection of incontrovertible limitations.

In fact, abundance often amplifies the importance of scarcity. As mass-produced goods become ever cheaper, a premium will shift toward what cannot be easily replicated. Consider status goods, fixed positional assets, and signals of taste. Luxury brands, rare collectibles, and authenticated works derive value precisely from their limited supply and provenance. If AI floods the world with high-quality substitutes, the value of the original or source item may increase, not decrease. Money, in this sense, becomes a way of expressing relative preference over increasingly differentiated manifestations of scarcity.

Physical systems themselves impose limits. Energy, for example, may become cheaper on average, but it inexorably faces capacity constraints, especially during peak demand periods. The same is true of certain materials, bandwidth, and computational resources in periods of congestion. Even highly advanced systems must allocate finite capacity across competing uses, and money prices remain an extraordinarily efficient, indeed elegant way of doing so. Without them, the hallmarks of rationing—queues, quotas, and administrative fiat—appear, none of which eliminate, but rather contend with and obscure, scarcity.

The unavoidable force of uncertainty is perhaps the most decisive argument against the obsolescence of money. Risk does not vanish amid colossal gains in productivity and output; if anything, complex, tightly coupled systems generate new forms of it. An explosion of goods and services will tax resources, time, and human capital, which will in turn generate new forms of insurance, hedging, and credit to transfer and price risk. Those functions require not just a medium of exchange but a unit of account to operate effectively. The idea that AI could eliminate uncertainty is as implausible as the idea that it could eliminate time.

Institutional realities reinforce the former point. Anywhere one finds government or governance, excludability inevitably follows. Property rights, regulatory approvals, access to bespoke networks, and enforcement mechanisms all create domains in which access is controlled. Money is readily suited to become (or, in fact, continue to be) the means by which access is negotiated, transferred, or prioritized. In a world inundated by output, trust and verification become more valuable. Certification, auditing, and reputation systems all rely on mechanisms of exchange that presuppose some form of monetary unit.

Money also plays a central role in coordinating urgency and priority. When resources are scarce in time versus in quantity (faster service, guaranteed delivery, and dedicated capacity), money allows individuals to signal how much they value immediacy relative to others. Absent money, such decisions do not disappear; they are made through other, often less transparent means.

An AI-driven deflationary boom would likely compress the prices of many goods and services. Perhaps dramatically so. But that would not—and could not—eliminate the need for money. It would shift the domain in which prices and calculations operate toward the nonreplicable, capacity-limited, and institutionally governed.

Money does not disappear in the face of abundance; it instead follows scarcity wherever it emerges.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 17:40

Billionaire Bucks Co-Owner Alleges $1 Billion Blackmail Plot After Affair With China-Born Entrepreneur

Wesley Edens, billionaire investor and co-owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, replied to a 2022 LinkedIn message from Changli Sophia Luo, a China-born founder of a small Manhattan nonprofit that produced interview videos. Their exchanges turned personal; by June 2023 they met at her apartment and had sex, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing prosectuors.  

What followed, authorities say, became an extortion case. Luo was indicted for allegedly trying to extract over $1 billion by threatening to release explicit images and videos. Prosecutors claim she repeatedly contacted Edens’s relatives, warned she would approach investors, and vowed to ruin him. She faces four charges, including blackmail and evidence destruction, and has pleaded not guilty. Released on $500,000 bond, she awaits trial.

Edens was not initially named, but a spokesman confirmed he is “Victim-1.” He reported the matter over safety concerns and is expected to testify. His side declined further comment: “Mr. Edens will be making no comment on the case as the indictment speaks for itself with respect to the charges against the defendant.”

The WSJ writes that Luo’s attorneys argue she sought accountability for what they describe as “an inappropriate and aggressive sexual encounter,” asking the court to dismiss the case. Federal prosecutors have not commented.

The dispute highlights reputational risks when personal relationships involving high-profile figures unravel. Victims often hesitate to involve authorities, partly because cases can expose private details.

“Extortion victims usually don’t want to cooperate, and don’t want to go to the government—for the very reasons that extortion or blackmail work,” said defense lawyer Scott R. Wilson.

Investigators began looking into Luo in early 2025 after Edens’s lawyer contacted the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office. After their encounter, Luo sent Edens a message: “I never told you I love you, and tonight I want to tell you that, I have been restraining my feeling for you, as I do love you from the bottom of my heart!” He didn’t reply.

Months later, prosecutors say her tone shifted. She allegedly contacted Edens’s then-girlfriend (now wife), his ex-wife, and claimed the encounter was nonconsensual due to mental incapacity. She warned him: “I am sure your family and business partners will learn about you and your misdeeds from these interviews and will provide exposure that will taint your record forever.”

Seeking to stop further contact and avoid publicity, Edens agreed to mediation. Luo negotiated with his lawyers and, according to her side, a $6.5 million settlement was reached, with $1 million upfront. Later, she said she had contracted HPV-16 and sought far more money—prosecutors say up to $1.215 billion.

After hiring attorney Tyrone Blackburn, she allegedly escalated threats, including releasing images and “destroying” Edens. Defense lawyer Arthur Aidala argued those statements were aggressive negotiation, not extortion, and said prior counsel should have warned her.

Blackburn denied encouraging any threats: “To ever say that I in any way encouraged her to engage in acts of extortion…that is a baldfaced lie.”

In May, the FBI searched Luo’s apartment and found hidden phones, including one containing manipulated explicit material featuring Edens, prosecutors said. She was arrested June 14 at JFK Airport while attempting to fly to China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 17:20