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Trump Launches America.Gov Website Simplifying Access To Government Services

Zero Hedge -

Trump Launches America.Gov Website Simplifying Access To Government Services

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Sept. 29 directing all federal agencies to integrate services with a new website designed to make it easier for users to find information and interact with the government.

He described the tool as "one of the most revolutionary product launches of all time."

America.gov will serve as a landing page consolidating nearly 30,000 federal government websites into one chatbot, powered by SpaceX's Grok and Google's Gemini. The site allows users to ask questions and receive guidance about procuring services.

"The federal government no longer stands in your way, and it stands only at your service," Trump said.

"We're simplifying it. We're glamorizing it. We're making it what it should be."

Plans for full integration with more than 10,000 forms across agencies will provide opportunities for full-service enrollment, where visitors can "apply, enroll, and track progress directly in the chat," according to a statement on the new site.

Users will find a "front door" to the government replacing the "endless maze" of websites and regulations, according to the president.

"It's not just simply a website. It's a restoration of America's founding promises, and it's a reinvention of your government for the 21st century and beyond," Trump said. "We're putting power and control back into the hands of the people, right where it belongs."

Once complete, Americans can request replacement Social Security cards, apply for passports and name changes, and access countless other government services.

"And with this, nobody can any longer complain about providing proof of citizenship or voter ID," Trump said, while calling for lawmakers to pass the SAVE America Act, which would mandate proof of citizenship to register and IDs to vote. "They're always saying it's too complicated. It's not complicated anymore."

Privacy is built into the system, no login is required, the site does not track visitors, and no personal information or conversations are recorded, according to administration officials.

Preventing data leaks and hacks is a priority, Trump said during his address, noting rapid advancement in technology and potential threats while touting security precautions against any attempts to infiltrate the system.

Visitors can type queries into the text box, mirroring modern AI interfaces. The chatbot can also translate three spoken languages - English, Spanish, and French - with more additions coming soon.

While the technology is built on artificial intelligence platforms, the president is proposing a universal name change for the innovation, suggesting that super intelligence, or SI, is superior to the "artificial" alternative.

Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia, the nation's first chief design officer, revealed the website to the public in a product-demo style presentation at the Andrew Mellon Auditorium in the nation's capital.

"There was a time when Americans entered great public buildings to meet our government, and when they did, the spaces achieved a user experience unlike anything else," Gebbia said, noting the impact of architectural design and grand rooms that communicated "dignity and respect" to all who entered.

"America.gov carries that idea into the age of super intelligence to reimagine a government built around you that respects your time, that works for you, that we can be proud of as Americans."

Approximately 39 million Americans visit federal government websites every day, collectively spending more than 10 billion hours annually on government-related paperwork, according to administration officials.

The website is live as of Sept. 29, with more features expected in the coming months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 15:45

Senate Passes 'Protect College Sports Act'

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Senate Passes 'Protect College Sports Act'

The Senate on Sept. 28 passed a bill that seeks to bring stability to the rapidly changing landscape of collegiate sports, sending it to the House of Representatives.

The Protect College Sports Act of 2026 passed on a 77-22 vote. The bill aims to address growing concerns surrounding athlete compensation, transfer rules, conference realignment, and long-term athlete protections. Since the House is out of session, it is unlikely to vote on the bill until after the November midterm elections.

In a Truth Social post, President Donald Trump called the Senate's passage of the bill "a really big deal."

"It will not only save college sports, it will save the colleges themselves," he said.

Under the legislation, the NCAA would be exempt from antitrust laws, and there would be a nationwide standard for name, image, and likeness (NIL) rules that would override the current patchwork of state laws.

As Jackson Richman reports further for The Epoch Times,The bill would allow student-athletes to use five seasons of eligibility within a five-year window and limit athletes to one transfer during their college careers. Division I schools would also be required to honor scholarships for up to 10 years after an athlete's final season.

Additionally, it would revise the Sports Broadcasting Act, allowing athletic conferences to pool television rights.

Another major component of the bill is player health and safety provisions.

Division I schools would be required to cover out-of-pocket medical costs for sports-related injuries both during participation and for five years after an athlete's final competition.

The legislation would mandate catastrophic injury coverage, access to second opinions, and post-career physical examinations, and establish a $60 million medical trust fund from the NCAA's coffers to assist smaller schools and athletes with long-term medical conditions.

The bill would also create an independent office within college athletics to provide confidential, free guidance to student-athletes and help resolve disputes involving schools, conferences, or athletic associations.

College football coaches would be prohibited from leaving midseason to take on another college football coaching job. This provision came after Lane Kiffin left his role as head coach of the University of Mississippi football team in November 2025 to take the same title at Louisiana State University.

Under the measure, at least one-third of governing boards or rulemaking committees within athletic associations would be required to consist of current or former student-athletes.

The bill also targets what lawmakers describe as abuses within the NIL system. It would ban compensation arrangements intended to bypass revenue-sharing limits or disguise pay-for-play incentives while preserving legitimate education- and athletics-related benefits established under the House settlement framework.

Under the House v. NCAA settlement, Division I athletes are eligible to receive a share of up to $20.5 million in school-generated revenue, with that cap expected to increase over time. The settlement also included nearly $2.8 billion in back pay for athletes who competed between 2016 and 2024.

The Protect College Sports Act would extend the revenue-sharing cap beyond the expiration of the House settlement after the 2034-35 academic year while allowing annual inflation adjustments.

The measure would create a bipartisan congressional commission to study the long-term future of college athletics, including athlete compensation, Olympic and women's sports, spending limits, health and safety standards, agent regulations, and the overall structure of college sports.

One unresolved issue in college athletics is whether student-athletes should be classified as employees of their schools.

The new legislation does not take a position. Congress has previously attempted to address the issue through measures such as the SCORE Act and SAFE Act. The House had planned to vote on the SCORE Act in May, but the vote was canceled amid concerns about insufficient support. That proposal would prevent student-athletes from being classified as employees.

Moreover, the legislation would prohibit certain large-revenue conferences, such as the Southeastern Conference and the Atlantic Coast Conference, from consolidating with or acquiring other conferences. It would limit the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC to 19 schools. Any school from these conferences that changes to another conference would need to operate independently for three years. This provision would sunset in six years.

The bill has the support of the major conferences such as the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference, and others.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who introduced the bill with Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), said the bill is necessary to bring sanity to college sports.

"The Protect College Sports Act is bipartisan legislation designed to bring order to the chaos, designed to put simple, common-sense rules in place so that college sports remain strong and vibrant for decades to come," Cruz said at a press conference on Sept. 14.

Cantwell said at the press conference, "This is about reining in the bad practices that are happening in college sports today, the runaway costs that are sending people to the state legislature, asking for bailout from taxpayers to pay for sports, asking people to take endowment funds that really should go to things like wheat research or AI, and instead have to be spent because of the runaway arms race in sports spending."

Most importantly, the bill has the support of President Donald Trump.

"The alternative just is no good. ... We have to get it voted on, and we're counting on the House - and I think the House will come through, too," the president told political commentator Clay Travis in an interview on Sept. 26.

Opposition to the bill has come from the NAACP and some Democrats.

"We recognize that the bill contains provisions concerning scholarships, healthcare, athlete agents, safety standards, and student-athlete representation," the NAACP's president and CEO, Derrick Johnson, wrote in an Aug. 4 letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

"College athletes deserve those protections. They should not, however, be used as political cover for provisions that insulate institutions and conferences from legal and economic accountability."

In a speech on the Senate floor on Sept. 16, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) disagreed with those who advocate for the bill.

"It's not about the safety, it's not about the well-being, it's not about the education of college athletes," he said. "This is a money play, plain and simple."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 15:25

Supreme Court Lets Trump's Third-Country Deportations Resume, Takes Case

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Supreme Court Lets Trump's Third-Country Deportations Resume, Takes Case

Update (1516ET): The Supreme Court on Tuesday allowed the Trump administration to resume third-country deportations and agreed to hear the underlying dispute this winter.

In a brief emergency-docket order in DHS v. D.V.D., the justices stayed U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy’s Feb. 25 judgment, which had blocked the Department of Homeland Security from sending people with final removal orders to countries not named in those orders unless they first received notice and a chance to raise persecution or torture claims.

The stay puts the First Circuit’s Sept. 18 ruling on hold and lets DHS restart removals under its March 2025 guidance while the case proceeds.

The Court also treated the government’s application as a petition for review and granted certiorari. Argument is set for the December 2026 sitting. The stay lasts until the Court issues its final judgment.

Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson would have denied the stay.

The order is the Court’s third intervention in the same litigation. It previously paused Murphy’s preliminary injunction on June 23, 2025, and clarified on July 3, 2025, that the pause applied in full - including a flight the administration sought to send to South Sudan after it was diverted to a U.S. base in Djibouti.

Solicitor General D. John Sauer told the Court last week that the First Circuit’s late-night dissolution of its own stay had thrown removal operations into chaos, including cancellation of a flight carrying about 70 deportees - some with criminal convictions - to three countries.

DHS counsel James Percival has said more than 25,000 people have already been removed under the program. Rights groups put the figure at more than 25,000 people sent to about 29 countries, many of them to Mexico.

The justices directed briefing on whether the district court had jurisdiction, whether classwide declaratory relief and APA vacatur are allowed under 8 U.S.C. §1252(f)(1), and whether the third-country guidance is unlawful under the removal statute, the Due Process Clause, or CAT/FARRA.

Tuesday’s order does not decide those questions. It restores the policy for now and tees them up for a full hearing.

* * *

The Department of Justice (DOJ) asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Sept. 24 to revive its third-country deportation program that sends deportees to countries that were not named in their removal orders.

The Trump administration has said it removes individuals to third countries when it cannot quickly return them to their home countries.

However, critics say the policy is used to bypass legal restrictions and deter illegal immigration.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) policy, adopted in March 2025, allows immigration officials to deport foreign nationals in as little as six hours.

The Supreme Court has already ruled in favor of the program twice on its emergency docket.

As Matthew Vadum further reports via The Epoch Times, following Supreme Court rules, the application is addressed to Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson because she oversees emergency appeals from decisions of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit.

However, U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer took the unusual step of asking Jackson to refer the stay request to the full court instead of ruling on it herself if she will not freeze the lower court's order.

Jackson voted against the government both times when the litigation previously came before the high court.

Sauer said lower court decisions were throwing into chaos the delicate arrangements the government has negotiated with other nations to take in deportees who are not their citizens.

"Third-country removals require careful negotiation with foreign governments, which are rarely enthusiastic about accepting foreign citizens (especially criminals), and often requires obtaining travel documents and devoting significant manpower to the staging of flights to protect government officers and flight crews," he said.

Disrupting those plans "imposes massive costs on the government," and forces it to engage in new instances of diplomatic engagement with countries "who may be all the more skeptical of our removal efforts given the disruption."

The filing concerns a First Circuit ruling from Sept. 18 that struck down DHS guidance allowing removal based on diplomatic assurances that receiving countries will not persecute or torture people sent to them.

The three-judge panel raised concerns about "blanket assurances" from third countries that promise U.S. deportees won't be tortured or persecuted, saying this promise is not sufficient and does not properly allow foreign nationals to raise persecution or torture concerns.

The panel affirmed the final judgment U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy issued Feb. 25 vacating the DHS guidance. In its Sept. 18 decision, it affirmed the striking down of the policy.

Murphy previously certified the respondents, who are people with final removal orders, as a nationwide class.

The respondents argue that the government may deport a removable noncitizen to a willing third country, but not without inquiring about whether the person would be persecuted or tortured in that country.

The case is known as DHS v. D.V.D.

On Sept. 24, Jackson did not respond to Sauer's request. Instead, she directed the other side to file a response to the application by 4 p.m. on Sept. 28.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 15:16

Why Businesses Haven't Left California - Yet

Zero Hedge -

Why Businesses Haven't Left California - Yet

Authored by Tom Wilson via the Mises Institute,

California has a strange relationship with business. Its lawmakers seem determined to make doing business more expensive, yet companies continue to operate there. Taxes rise, regulations accumulate, and new compliance requirements are added, but California remains home to some of the most successful companies in the world. That raises a question more interesting than whether California is "business friendly." Why do businesses continue to stay - and how far can the state push them before they finally decide the benefits of California are no longer worth the cost?

Adam Smith understood part of the answer long before California became an economic powerhouse. In The Wealth of Nations, he explained that the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market. California offers businesses an enormous and highly-developed market. Its ports connect them to the world, its universities and industries provide specialized labor, and decades of accumulated capital and expertise create opportunities that aren't easily duplicated elsewhere. Silicon Valley wasn't built overnight, and neither were California's entertainment, agriculture, and international trade networks. Those advantages help explain why businesses tolerate costs in California that they might never accept in a smaller or less developed market. But California shouldn't mistake an advantage for immunity.

Some businesses have already decided those advantages are no longer enough. Tesla moved its headquarters to Texas. Chevron - a company with roots in California stretching back more than a century - moved its headquarters to Houston. Oracle moved its headquarters from California to Austin. These aren't struggling companies desperately searching for somewhere cheaper to survive. They are enormously successful businesses with the resources to operate almost anywhere. Their departures don't prove that California's economy is collapsing. They demonstrate something more important: even California's considerable economic advantages have a price.

A business doesn't have to leave California for California to lose. A company headquartered in Los Angeles can keep its offices there while building its next warehouse, factory, or distribution center in Arizona, Nevada, or Texas. No headline announces another company fleeing the state. The investment simply lands somewhere else. Multiply that decision across thousands of companies making thousands of quiet calls each year, and it may matter more than any single high-profile departure.

One bill now sitting on Gov. Gavin Newsom's desk offers a good example of the direction California continues to take. AB 2599 would require certain large companies with sufficiently old corporate roots to search historical records for connections to slavery and report what they find to the state. Whatever one thinks of the goal, those records won't search themselves. Someone has to locate them, attorneys have to determine what must be disclosed, and employees have to ensure the company complies. For a corporation with billions in revenue, that expense alone is unlikely to send it running for the Texas border. But that is precisely the point. If Newsom signs the bill, it becomes another requirement, another expense, and another reason for a business to consider making its next investment somewhere else.

California's strength can mask this. Silicon Valley doesn't vanish because of one more regulation, the ports don't relocate to Nevada, and Hollywood isn't rebuilt in Austin overnight. That durability can convince lawmakers businesses will tolerate almost anything. But Texas, Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee don't need to match everything California offers - they only need to close the gap enough that lower costs start to win. Workforces can be trained, capital can move, and networks can form elsewhere. California didn't earn a permanent lease on its advantages; it just got there first.

This helps explain why businesses haven't abandoned California. Its markets, access to trade, skilled labor, capital, and generations of accumulated economic activity still provide enormous advantages. But those advantages shouldn't be confused with permanence. Every new tax, mandate, and compliance requirement asks businesses to calculate once again whether California is worth the price. Some have already answered no. Others continue to stay. The question California's lawmakers should be asking isn't how much more businesses can afford to pay. It's how many times they can raise the price of staying before more businesses decide to build their future somewhere else.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 15:05

Trump Mulls Big Russia Sanctions Relief For Prisoners, Risking Wrath Of Allies & Hawks

Zero Hedge -

Trump Mulls Big Russia Sanctions Relief For Prisoners, Risking Wrath Of Allies & Hawks

Diplomacy is obviously stalemated and almost non-existent when it comes to the Iran conflict and Hormuz Strait crisis, and so the White House needs some level of a 'win'.

It seems President Trump continues to look for this in the years-long Ukraine crisis, as he's said to now be mulling a major deal which would see the Kremlin free some political prisoners in exchange for a significant easing of sanctions on the Russian economy.

The Atlantic on Tuesday in reporting the initiative characterized the potential deal as so sweeping that it "could outrage even his allies." Of course, the Zelensky government and Europe is actively trying to tighten the screws on Moscow.

via AFP

But the proposed plan would in many ways be a reversal of the prior policy of 'global isolation' of Putin. The report says:

Donald Trump’s envoy to Eastern Europe came to the president with a new idea for breaking the deadlock in U.S. relations with Moscow. The plan involved a quid pro quo reminiscent of the Cold War: The Kremlin would free some political prisoners, and the United States would reward their release by easing sanctions on the Russian economy. Trump signed on.

This new initiative, which is still in its early stages and has not been previously reported, promises to advance several of Trump’s goals at once. It would help reintegrate Russia into the global economy and broaden Trump’s talks with the Kremlin beyond the intractable war in Ukraine, which his envoys have failed to end after more than a year of diplomacy. It would create a path for the U.S. to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals, and other commodities. As a bonus, the release of prisoners on humanitarian grounds could bolster Trump’s case for his long-coveted Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump's envoy to Eastern Europe, John Coale, had reportedly first pitched the initiative "a few months ago," and "Trump signed on," the report notes.

However, it's said to still be early stages, but if it gets close to the finish line the plan "is likely to outrage the Ukrainians, Europeans, and even many of Trump's allies on Capitol Hill," The Atlantic underscores.

But such concerns have never stopped Trump before, and it could actually help jump-start the long dormant peace process, and possibly cool soaring tensions with NATO.

The report also comments that "any potential business deal between the US and Russia would risk funneling money to the Russian military even as it continues to terrorize Ukraine and threatens a wider war against US allies in Europe."

An important caveat which could hinder an ambitious prisoner release for sanctions relief is that fact that Trump just drastically upped the ante by earlier this month signing a bill co-authored by the late NeoCon senator Lindsey Graham which authorized the president to "impose severe sanctions on Russia and its trading partners."

So if Trump was wishing to soon strike a deal and cool tensions with Russia, why sign the Graham bill? A lot of contradictions in Washington policy remain. The Trump administration has also had a running 'love-hate' relationship with Zelensky. At times Zelensky is being berated, at others he's being praised. Like the Iran conflict, MAGA and conservatives in general have by and large been divided on the issue of Ukraine and what US policy should be.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 14:45

Education Department Scraps Biden-Era Title IX Gender Identity Protections

Zero Hedge -

Education Department Scraps Biden-Era Title IX Gender Identity Protections

Via American Greatness,

The Education Department announced Monday that it has formally rescinded the Biden administration's interpretation of Title IX that extended sex-discrimination protections to students based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

Schools will instead return to Title IX regulations adopted during President Donald Trump's first administration in 2020, a move the department says will protect women's sports and provide greater clarity for schools and families.

"Thanks to today's action, the published Title IX regulations faithfully reflect court orders and Congressional intent - reducing confusion for parents, students, and educational institutions," Education Secretary Linda McMahon said.

"We will continue to relentlessly champion equal opportunity for all Americans and hold accountable any school or college that violates the rights, privacy, or athletic opportunities of our women and girls," she added.

The Biden-era rule had already been struck down in federal court following legal challenges brought by Republican-led states.

Since Trump returned to office, his administration has pursued policies defining sex under Title IX in biological terms and has pressed schools to change policies allowing transgender athletes to participate in women's sports. The University of Pennsylvania, for example, reached a deal with the administration to remove transgender athletes from its women's athletic programs.

Critics claim the administration's approach will harm transgender students and could weaken protections for victims of sexual violence.

Shiwali Patel, senior director of education justice at the National Women's Law Center, accused the administration of "weaponizing Title IX to attack trans students."

"Sexual harassment and assault continue to be pervasive in schools and, to the fullest extent possible, we should be working to enforce the laws that protect student survivors of sexual violence," Patel said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 14:25

Group To Sue New York Over Union-Backed "Hit-Job" Law

Zero Hedge -

Group To Sue New York Over Union-Backed "Hit-Job" Law

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

A national worker-rights group plans to go to federal court Monday to block a New York law it says was written to silence outreach to public employees about their right to leave their unions. The group argues the new law is an unconstitutional violation of free speech because it allows state government officials to shut down speech before a single word is conveyed.

The Freedom Foundation is set to file its motion in U.S. District Court in the Northern District of New York asking for a preliminary injunction against the "Section 216" civil service law. Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the measure on Sept. 9. It took effect immediately.

The case sets up a high-stakes test of how far a state can go in policing speech aimed at its own workers. New York contends that the law simply targets fraud. The Freedom Foundation counters that it's a union-backed weapon targeting its highly successful education campaigns to show public sector workers how to cancel their union memberships.

Freedom Foundation CEO Aaron Withe has called the law a "hit job" aimed at ending the free-speech rights of his group. He said it "isn't about protecting anyone" except the unions.

Withe asserts that the law aims to stop the Freedom Foundation's education campaigns after the group's outreach has led to the largest decline in union membership in U.S. history. Some 300,000 people in the last six years have canceled their union membership, he said, and the anti-union messages are continuing to gain traction. If the cancellation trend continues, the Freedom Foundation expects 70,000 people to cancel their union membership this year alone.

"They're paying [an average of] $1,100 a year each, so you're talking about in one year $70 million being taken away from their annual revenues," he told RealClearPolitics. "And of course, most of that is happening in blue states because that's where the public employees are."

On the surface, the New York law purports to bar people and organizations from sending communications that falsely appear to be authorized by a union or union representative. It also gives Democratic Attorney General Letitia James the power to investigate, issue subpoenas, and ask a court to block communications deemed deceptive.

Courts can impose fines of up to $1,000 per violation, including against organizations based outside of New York. The Freedom Foundation says New York's version goes further than a similar Oregon law by giving unions a "private right of action" to sue out-of-state parties.

The Freedom Foundation's request for a preliminary injunction argues that the law gives state attorneys broad powers to investigate, intimidate and stifle speech before it occurs. The group has already halted its New York outreach while the fight plays out. The outcome could shape whether other Democratic-led states adopt similar measures.

Stopping speech before it occurs

At the heart of the challenge is what the Freedom Foundation calls an unconstitutional prior restraint on speech: government action that stops expression before it happens rather than punishing it afterward.

According to the Freedom Foundation's motion, the law "doesn't even afford the Foundation the privilege of being punished after it publishes something." The motion notes that Section 216 lets the attorney general take legal action if she believes someone is "about to engage" in speech that violates the law and seek a court order suppressing that speech before publication.

"The most egregious part of the whole thing is the fact that the new law is imposing prior restraint on our speech," Shella Alcabes, an attorney for the Freedom Foundation, told RCP.

Alcabes said the law lets James review the group's past work and issue investigative subpoenas "all so that she can gather information to determine whether we might somehow in the future violate this law - that's insane."

"That just means that before we've even spoken, our speech can be restricted," she said.

Alcabes also argued the group would be unlikely to lose if it were ever sued for impersonating a union, because its materials go out of their way to make clear who is speaking.

"Everything that we try to do is the opposite of what unions would want to do," she told RCP. "We want to tell everyone we're not a union and we're opposed to what they do."

The danger, she said, lies in the investigative powers the law hands the attorney general.

"In a lawsuit, we [would] never really lose," Alcabes said. "But with an investigation behind closed doors, who knows?"

That argument taps one of the oldest principles in American free-speech law. Since Near v. Minnesota in 1931, the U.S. Supreme Court has treated prior restraints as among the most serious threats to the First Amendment. In the 1971 Pentagon Papers case, New York Times Co. v. United States, the court said any such restraint carries a "heavy presumption" against its constitutionality.

The group also says the law's penalties are designed to intimidate. The motion argues that if the Freedom Foundation sent one educational mailer to every public employee in New York, it could face nearly $1.5 billion in sanctions.

The Freedom Foundation says the threat has already worked. It has shut down its outreach to public employees in New York in response to the law. Its motion says Section 216 has chilled the group's labor-rights advocacy.

"The First Amendment does not tolerate laws so clearly calculated to distort public discourse and punish disfavored speakers," the motion states. It asks the court to let the Freedom Foundation resume that advocacy.

A law that makes speech illegal

The Freedom Foundation says the law's real target is obvious: groups like itself that remind government workers of a right the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed eight years ago. In Janus v. AFSCME, the high court held in 2018 that public-sector employees, including public school teachers, cannot be forced to pay union fees. The ruling reasoned that union speech can involve political issues protected by the First Amendment.

The group has mailed and otherwise contacted New York public employees, including teachers, to tell them they can leave their unions and stop paying dues. According to the Freedom Foundation, nearly 7,500 New York public employees have used its materials to cancel their union memberships, including more than 1,400 so far this year.

"It exists because government unions in New York are terrified of an inconvenient fact: When public employees learn they don't have to pay union dues, a lot of them stop," Withe said. "So instead of making their case to their own members, union bosses ran to their friends in the legislature and got them to write a law that makes speech illegal."

"This is an anti-speech law aimed at one kind of speaker," Withe added. He noted that the law "lets Letitia James fine the Freedom Foundation for outreach the state decides 'impersonates' a union."

In his view, the group is simply telling public employees about their right to leave their union and stop paying dues. Withe also warns that the law sets a precedent that should worry people across the political spectrum.

"This is a special interest group that is limiting free speech that they disagree with," he said. "Where does that stop on the left and the right? Today it's targeting talking about union membership. Tomorrow, is it going to be talking about pro-life issues? I mean, where does this end?"

Round two after Oregon

Withe says New York's law was "copied" from an Oregon measure the Freedom Foundation is already fighting, and that the group will "make the same case here." That earlier fight has hit a procedural wall. A federal district court dismissed the Foundation's challenge to the Oregon statute on ripeness grounds, finding no union had yet filed suit, and the Foundation has appealed to the 9th Circuit.

The New York challenge may avoid that problem. By shutting down its New York outreach rather than risk penalties, the group can argue its speech is already being suppressed. It can also point to the law's "about to engage" provision as a threat to speech that has not happened yet.

State defends the law

Hochul's office says the law is about fraud, not free speech.

"Governor Hochul takes fraud of any kind seriously, which is why she signed the legislation prohibiting the false impersonation of union officials to protect workers from being misled by deceptive communications," Hochul spokeswoman Kristin Devoe said in a statement. "Employee organizations and unions play a crucial role in New York's infrastructure as a whole, and the Governor has always championed legislation that supports, protects and uplifts workers across the state."

The law's prime sponsor, Assemblymember Judy Griffin, a Democrat representing Nassau County, has said the bill closes a gap in the law and protects workers from people who knowingly impersonate unions to spread misinformation or interfere with lawful union activity.

Mario Cilento, president of the New York State AFL-CIO, praised the law for "holding individuals accountable for fraudulently claiming to be union representatives."

In court, the state is likely to press that framing and argue that the First Amendment has never protected fraud. States can generally bar people from impersonating others to deceive, and courts have upheld injunctions against speech already shown to be false or misleading.

New York will likely argue that Section 216 reaches only communications meant to trick workers into believing a union sent them. Under that reading, the Freedom Foundation's clearly branded mailers wouldn't be affected. The state may also argue that the law is neutral because it applies to anyone who impersonates a union, not to one group or one viewpoint.

The state may also try to get the case thrown out before a judge reaches the constitutional questions. That is how Oregon won the first round there. New York has not yet brought any enforcement action against the Freedom Foundation. Its lawyers could argue that the group's fears are speculative and that its decision to halt New York outreach was voluntary rather than compelled.

The Freedom Foundation counters that the law's "about to engage" provision and the threat of massive fines are exactly what make its challenge imperative now. It will argue that a speaker shouldn't have to risk financial ruin to find out whether its speech is legal.

Alcabes says the law was clearly written to target the Freedom Foundation even though it hasn't done anything to impersonate unions. In fact, the group's emails and other material it publishes repeatedly use phrases, such as "opt out today," so it's clear they are anti-union.

"At the end of the day, it's the prior restraint that's so scary because we would probably win every lawsuit showing that we don't impersonate unions," she argued.

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 13:55

Tesla Patents "Electric Fan Car" Weeks Before Roadster Reveal

Zero Hedge -

Tesla Patents "Electric Fan Car" Weeks Before Roadster Reveal

The United States Patent and Trademark Office awarded Tesla an "Electric Fan Car" patent less than three weeks before the Tesla Roadster 2.0 reveal.

The USPTO filing illustrates four electric ducted fans positioned side by side in the rear diffuser and states that the system is designed to "increase downforce and reduce drag."

"The achievable speed around corners, and stability during braking, of a road vehicle can often be limited by a measure of downforce, or vertical downward force, available on the vehicle. Downforce can help improve grip around corners and stability during braking. Therefore, a vehicle can achieve increased speed through corners and better stability during deceleration with an improved means of creating downforce," the filing continued.

The filing also describes the new system as driver-activated or, in some configurations, automatically controlled.

Last month, a report said the redesigned Roadster would have limited "flying" capabilities.

EV blog Electrek pointed out, "Somebody at Tesla was clearly working on a track-focused Model S in 2023. That car is dead, and the idea has nowhere to go but the Roadster. Between this, last year's skirt

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 13:35

5 Takeaways From The New US-China Tariff-Relief Product Lists

Zero Hedge -

5 Takeaways From The New US-China Tariff-Relief Product Lists

Authored by Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times,

The United States and China have released product lists covering about $30 billion in imports in each direction that could receive lower tariffs under an agreement reached after Chinese leader Xi Jinping's visit to Washington.

The lists cover 77 categories of Chinese goods entering the United States and 1,619 categories of U.S. goods entering China.

Here are five takeaways from the agreement.

Limited Category of Trade Covered

The arrangement covers goods the two countries have designated as "non-sensitive," totaling about $60 billion in two-way trade based on 2024 values.

The U.S. list includes toys, fireworks, blankets, tableware, artificial flowers, child safety seats, and holiday decorations. China's list includes agricultural products, seafood, timber, personal-care products, medical equipment, and coal.

Products outside the two approved lists are not covered by this tariff-reduction arrangement.

A Work in Progress

Publication of the lists does not itself lower tariffs.

The two sides have approved the product lists, but future tariff reductions must still go through each country's domestic legal procedures.

China's Commerce Ministry said on Sept. 28 that the two governments would implement the reductions simultaneously after completing those procedures.

No effective date has been announced.

US Commercial Soybeans Excluded

China's list includes a wide range of U.S. agricultural products, including wheat, corn, sorghum, meat, seafood, and dairy products.

Ordinary commercial soybeans are not on the list.

It does include soybeans specifically for cultivation, as well as soybean oil, soybean meal, and some other soybean-derived products.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sept. 23 that Beijing had met its soybean-purchase commitment for this year but was behind schedule on purchases of other U.S. agricultural products.

'Most-Favored-Nation' Rate for Most Covered Goods

China's Commerce Ministry said more than 90 percent of the products covered by the arrangement would have the additional tariffs imposed by the two sides removed.

Those goods would instead face each country's standard tariff rate, known in international trade as the "most-favored-nation" rate.

Trade Truce Extended by 2 Months

The product-list arrangement does not settle the broader U.S.-China trade dispute.

The two countries separately extended their existing trade truce by two months, moving its expiration from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10.

Bessent said on Sept. 23 that he was unsure whether the two sides could reach a broader agreement. He said Chinese negotiators had proposed a larger deal and that Washington was open either to continuing the existing arrangement or examining a broader one.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 13:20

IEA's Birol Says "Ready To Act" If Energy Shock Worsens As US Offers 40 Million-Barrel SPR Lifeline

Zero Hedge -

IEA's Birol Says "Ready To Act" If Energy Shock Worsens As US Offers 40 Million-Barrel SPR Lifeline

Summary: 

  • US DoE Offers 40 Million Barrels From SPR 
  • IEA Head Says SPR On Standby If Energy Crisis Deepens 
  • EU Eyes Methane Rule Retreat As Energy Crisis Deepens; IEA Floats Another Emergency Oil Dump
IEA Head "Ready To Act"; US DoE Offers 40 Million Barrels From SPR

Brent crude futures moved lower to $103.90 a barrel, supported by continued diplomatic efforts and the resumption of flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Kpler data from the weekend showed that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached 13 million barrels a day, about two-thirds of the prewar level.

 Courtesy of Commodity Context ... 

Speaking to reporters at a meeting of EU energy ministers in Dublin, IEA head Fatih Birol said another emergency SPR dump remains on standby should the energy crisis become "much bigger" and more prolonged.

Birol said one-third of the 400 million-barrel release announced in March, shortly after the US-Iran conflict erupted, has yet to hit the market. He said around 80% of overall stocks remain available.

"If there is a need, and if our member countries do agree with it, we are ready to act in order to address current and future market challenges," he said.

A separate Bloomberg News report said the US Energy Department requested an exchange of up to 40 million barrels of oil from the SPR. The release is part of a much larger plan to dump 172 million barrels of oil from the SPR onto the market to tame crude prices amid supply disruptions at the Hormuz chokepoint.

Such a drawdown would put the SPR at levels not seen since the early 1980s. The current level stands at around 285 million barrels.

Goldman Energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari warned last week that an ongoing global refining crisis could strain the fuel market well into 2027 (read the report). 

EU Eyes Methane Rule Retreat As Energy Crisis Deepens; IEA Floats Another Emergency Oil Dump

The European Union is considering postponing methane emissions requirements for imported oil and gas to help boost energy supplies, with the Northern Hemisphere winter just months away. Energy prices in the bloc are already soaring, and uncomfortably low supplies of diesel and natural gas could push them even higher. The energy-stricken continent faces a difficult balancing act as it fights for its energy security.

Reuters quoted EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen as saying the bloc could delay the methane emissions provisions by a year, which are scheduled to take effect at the start of next year. The rules require foreign producers supplying Europe to monitor and report methane emissions. 

The big concern is that compliance risks and potential penalties could discourage suppliers from sending fuel to Europe just as governments panic-search to secure winter supplies. Disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine and Iran have disrupted supplies of avaiable crude and crude products. 

"I have instructed my services... to look into possibilities of postponing the part that has to do with imports," Jorgensen told reporters at a meeting of EU energy ministers in Dublin.

The potential withdrawal of the new methane emissions rule comes as the International Energy Agency weighs another strategic oil reserves dump to cap crude oil prices from rising further - just as China re-enters. 

"We are following the markets very closely, especially the product markets, diesel and others. If there is a need, of course, we will discuss with our member governments to take the necessary steps," IEA head Fatih Birol told reporters in Dublin ahead of a meeting of EU energy ministers.

Fatih Birol

UBS markets analyst Nana Antiedu commented earlier today on the ongoing disruption to the global refining market: 

Since the July update, UBS Evidence Lab's refining project tracker shows disruptions across global refining have intensified, driven by the Strait of Hormuz situation and further attacks on Russian refineries. 

Around 11% of global refining capacity was offline during August, typically the lightest month of the year for maintenance. European refining margins set a new all-time high at $50/bbl. As the industry enters the autumn maintenance season, energy analyst Anna Kishmariya estimates offline capacity should remain above 11Mb/d through at least October, absent a recovery in Middle Eastern product flows. 

She raises the estimate of capacity requiring repairs exceeding two months to about 2.3Mb/d. The key focus remains the potential US product export ban. Given US exports account for over 20% of the global diesel export market, Anna does not believe the market could absorb another major supply disruption. While not her base case, this remains the key upside risk to margins.

Brent prices reversed earlier amid conflicting messaging on US-Iran negotiations, continued flows through the Hormuz chokepoint and renewed flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Recall last week that Goldman warned a global refining nightmare could extend well into 2027 (read report). 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:50

Trump Asks Supreme Court To Restore Restrictions On Transgender Inmate Treatments

Zero Hedge -

Trump Asks Supreme Court To Restore Restrictions On Transgender Inmate Treatments

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court on Monday to allow the Bureau of Prisons to enforce restrictions on medical interventions and social accommodations for transgender federal inmates while a legal challenge continues.

The Justice Department's emergency request follows a lower court order blocking the policy for inmates diagnosed with gender dysphoria.

Under the Bureau of Prisons policy, inmates would continue to have access to mental health services, but the government would not provide hormone therapy, surgeries or accommodations such as chest binders, wigs and breast padding.

The legal fight began after President Donald Trump issued an executive order directing the Bureau of Prisons to revise its policies and prohibit federal funds from being spent on medical procedures, treatments or drugs intended to make an inmate's appearance conform to the opposite sex.

U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth blocked the new Bureau of Prisons policy in June, finding in part that it had been "reverse engineered" to carry out Trump's executive order. Lamberth ordered the government to continue providing previously available treatments to affected inmates.

The Justice Department appealed, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit declined earlier this month to let the administration enforce the policy while the case proceeds.

The administration is now asking the Supreme Court to intervene.

In its emergency filing, the Justice Department accused the district court of "substituting its own policy judgment for that of the agency."

Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued that prison officials determined the restrictions were "necessary to maintain institutional security" and said the lower court's ruling prevents the executive branch from carrying out its chosen policy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:45

Jefferies Beats On Record Stock Trading, But Asset Management Revenue Plunges 50% On First Brands, Radiant "Cockroaches"

Zero Hedge -

Jefferies Beats On Record Stock Trading, But Asset Management Revenue Plunges 50% On First Brands, Radiant "Cockroaches"

Jefferies is once again the first major Wall Street firm to report its quarter, and once again the story is of two very different banks under one roof: a trading and banking franchise running near record highs, and an asset-management arm that keeps finding new ways to lose money on receivables that may or may not exist.

The good news first. In the fiscal third quarter ended August 31, Jefferies reported EPS of $1.08, beating the $1.00 consensus (core EPS of $1.08 also beat Goldman's $1.03 and the Street's $1.01). Core pre-tax income came in 9% ahead of the Street, driven by:

  • Equities trading: $626 million, up 29% YoY and a record, helped by cash, electronic trading and prime services (i.e., hedge funds levering up into the AI melt-up).
  • Investment banking: $1.3 billion, up 17%, with advisory up 25% (also a record) and equity underwriting up 69%.
  • Fixed income trading: the laggard, with net revenue down 26% in what the bank called a sluggish market.

And then there's the asset-management unit, where net revenue fell to $85.6 million from almost $177 million a year earlier. That's a 52% drop, and it comes from the same two names that have been following Jefferies around for a year: First Brands and Radiant World, both held through Leucadia Asset Management's Point Bonita trade-finance fund.

The stock fell 1.1% in early trading, taking the YTD decline past 25%. That is a strange reaction to a record quarter, unless you remember how the last twelve months have gone.

Goldman: Buy... with a 15% lower price target

Goldman's James Yaro headlined his overnight note "Equities trading and expense beat, outlook and momentum remain largely the same." That is sell-side for "fine, nothing to see here," and Goldman does expect "a slightly constructive response to results." Look closer, though, and the note is a good deal less relaxed than the title.

First, the good parts, per Goldman:

  • Equities: A second consecutive record at $626MM, 10%/14% ahead of GSe/Street, "with strength across all products, especially in prime."
  • Advisory: Record quarterly revenue, "in part driven by a sponsor recovery, as well as broad-based share gains across sectors."
  • Margins: A core pre-tax margin of 15.8%, about 150bps above consensus, thanks to a non-comp ratio about 145bps below the Street.
  • Buybacks: 1.3MM shares repurchased in the quarter.

Now the less good parts, starting with the quality of the beat:

  • The banking beat is the volatile kind. It "was primarily driven by other investment banking ($31mn vs. GSe/consensus at $5mn/11mn), the most volatile of JEF's IBanking business." Underwriting actually missed by 3%. ECM came in 4% short of the Street, even while growing 69% YoY, so expectations were running even hotter than the deal flow.
  • Some of the expense discipline is really just shrinkage. A portion "likely relates to merchant banking wind-downs, which appear to have been larger than anticipated in terms of both revenue and expenses." Jefferies is spending less partly because there is less business left to spend on.
  • FICC missed badly: 18% below the Street and 15% below Goldman.

And then there is asset management, where the headline number actually understates the damage. Strip out merchant banking and Jefferies' core asset-management revenue was just $13 million, against Goldman's $38MM estimate and the Street's $36MM. That's a 66%/64% miss, "primarily driven by lower investment returns." In response, Goldman cut its 2026E/27E/28E asset management revenue by 22%/11%/6%.

Goldman's rating is still Buy, but look at what it did to valuation. The bank (full report here) cut its target multiple by 2.5x to 11.0x and its 12-month price target by ~15%, from $67 to $57, even as its 2026 EPS estimate rose 2%. It also offered a telling explanation for the stock's persistent discount: "we believe that the market discounts the multiples assigned to these businesses, given their volatility." Put simply, even when Jefferies beats, investors won't pay up for the kinds of earnings it produces.

The chart in the Goldman note shows the result: JEF is down 29.4% over twelve months, and 39.4% behind the S&P 500. The stock peaked just as First Brands was about to blow up and has spent the year since trailing the market.

Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli gave the quarter a fitting grade: "Not amazing, not horrible." He also questioned how long the equities boom can last, which is a reasonable question when the entire Street is printing record equities revenue on the same trade.

The wider read-across is positive for the rest of the Street's equity desks. BofA's Brian Moynihan said earlier this month that equity trading was up in the quarter through mid-September, and Goldman's David Solomon said equities remained "very strong." In FICC, BofA warned that revenue was down and "bouncing around," and Jefferies' -26% suggests that was an understatement.

The cockroach problem

Management kept the upbeat tone. CEO Rich Handler and President Brian Friedman said they "remain confident in the long-term outlook" for asset management as they "reposition the platform by reducing capital allocated to certain existing funds." In other words, Point Bonita is being wound down. The plan is to put the capital into Hildene, the credit manager Jefferies agreed in December 2025 to buy 50% of, alongside Hildene's $550 million purchase of annuity writer SILAC. Replacing a trade-finance fund that blew up on receivables with a credit shop that owns an insurer is one way to diversify, at least.

As a reminder of how we got here:

  • First Brands. When the auto-parts roll-up collapsed into bankruptcy in the fall of 2025, it turned out that Point Bonita, which once managed roughly $3 billion, had about a quarter of its assets tied to First Brands receivables (around $715 million, per Jefferies' own October 2025 update). The DOJ then opened a probe into what we called First Brands' "shocking bankruptcy" (Oct 2025). A week later, Jamie Dimon's "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more" line became the market's official slogan, and JEF crashed more than 10% in a single session as regional banks crashed as more credit "cockroaches" emerged (Oct 16, 2025).
     
  • Market Financial Solutions. Then, in February, Jefferies was again scrambling to recover what it could (Feb 27, 2026) after the collapse of UK bridging lender MFS, where we noted that "Banco Santander and Jefferies – both of which sank in the First Brands swamp" were once more in the line of fire.
  • Radiant World. This is the latest one, and it is the ugliest. Radiant is a Singapore iron-ore trader that bought receivables from counterparties like Glencore and Vitol and financed them through banks and funds, including - drumroll - Point Bonita. In August, Hedgeweek reported that payments to the fund had "slowed," and several commodity houses stopped trading with Radiant over questions about its invoices. Jefferies was said to believe the underlying trades "remain legitimate."

That view lasted about a month. Since then:

  • Sep 5: Jefferies' LAM Trade Finance fund won a UK freezing order against Radiant, founder Pinkesh Nahar, and affiliate Sapphire Minmetals. Parallel orders followed in Hong Kong and Singapore.
  • Sep 8-9: The fund formally accused Radiant of fraud in a $500 million claim, alleging the iron-ore receivables "either did not exist or were not validly assigned."
  • Sep 17: Radiant disclosed that it had about $10,000 in cash, compared with audited financials showing more than $200 million. Somewhere, an auditor is updating their LinkedIn.
  • Sep 19: Radiant sued Glencore for $2 billion in Singapore, which is an interesting move for a company with $10K in the bank. Glencore has reportedly already taken a $480 million provision and told Mizuho that Radiant sent it a fake Glencore email about repaying a $95.5 million loan.
  • Sep 24-25: KPMG was appointed interim judicial manager, a Singapore judge questioned Radiant's claimed $1 billion of receivables, and Bloomberg reported that Singapore police had received a fraud report months before the crisis, with Intesa Sanpaolo apparently suspicious of the invoices before anyone else.

Then there is the question of how much Jefferies actually has at risk. Bloomberg has put Jefferies' exposure at "less than $300 million." But according to a creditor schedule the founder submitted to the court, Jefferies is Radiant's largest creditor at $353 million, well ahead of Intesa ($238MM), Deutsche Bank ($103MM) and Mizuho ($97MM), out of $870 million total. The fraud claim filed by the fund is for $500 million. Pick a number.

Bottom line

For the rest of the Street, the Jefferies print is good news: equities are booming, the ECM window is wide open, advisory is at records, and backlogs are "broad and strong" ("very optimistic about the balance of 2026 and our momentum heading into 2027," per Handler and Friedman). JPM's Market Intel desk, which this morning went back to "Tactically Bullish," said that outside of AI plays it favors banks, given "the growth reboot, potentially steeper yield curve, and favorable capital markets outlook."

For Jefferies itself, the market is saying something different. The stock is down more than 25% YTD and nearly 30% over twelve months despite record trading and advisory. Goldman's Buy rating now sits on a price target 15% lower and on a multiple that assumes investors will keep charging a volatility discount. Goldman even lists "a much longer timeframe to wind down the merchant bank" among its downside risks.

After First Brands, MFS, and now an iron-ore trader with $10,000 in its account and a fake Glencore email, the market isn't asking whether there are more cockroaches. It's asking where the next one is.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:30

Democrats Split On Whether To Impeach Trump Again If They Win The House

Zero Hedge -

Democrats Split On Whether To Impeach Trump Again If They Win The House

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said on Sept. 28 that Democrats would put lowering costs first if they win the House in November.

But he did not rule out impeaching President Donald Trump, as members of his party are split publicly on whether to try for that a third time.

Asked on CNBC's "Squawk Box" how much of a Democratic majority's next two years would be spent on hearings about Trump, his family, and his administration, Jeffries said the party is focused on affordability but also has an oversight role.

"We're committed to an affordability agenda," he said.

"As I travel the country, speak to people, whether that's in urban America, rural parts of America, the heartland of America, small-town America, or black and brown communities throughout America. The one thing that is clear is that people are struggling.

"They are drowning in this failed Republican economy. They're working hard, they're playing by the rules, but they cannot thrive and can barely survive. It's an unacceptable situation. And so, when we say we're focused on affordability, we mean it."

Jeffries said he believed that there has been "unprecedented corruption unleashed on the American people" and that if Democrats win the House, they would "have a responsibility to visit the type of accountability that is consistent with the House as a separate and co-equal branch of government."

Pressed on the balance between accountability and affordability, he said the next Democratic caucus would include progressives, moderates, and more socially conservative members united around the cost of living.

Jeffries said when it came to cleaning up what he called the "rampant corruption" that exists in Washington, Democrats would "follow the facts, apply the law, be guided by the Constitution, and then let the chips fall where they may on behalf of the American people."

"We have a responsibility, of course, as a Congress, to serve as a check and balance on an out-of-control executive branch. That's not partisan, that's patriotic," he said.

Jeffries's comments came a day after Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that impeaching Trump a third time would not be a mistake for Democrats.

"No, it's not. Because it's not about Donald Trump," Khanna said.

"He's going to be a lame duck, and in my view, increasingly irrelevant.

"The point is to stand up for the Constitution.

"Impeachment says that you can't get into an illegal war in Iran without constitutional approval. Impeachment says that you can't just start firing federal employees in defiance of what Congress says. Impeachment says you can't do deals with foreign governments to allegedly enrich your own family.

"It's about setting a standard."

He said Democrats could pursue impeachment while also moving on child care, the minimum wage, paid family leave, and taxes on billionaires in their first 100 days.

"We can do both," he said.

Khanna was responding to a clip of Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), who told an audience at the Center for American Progress on Sept. 22 that Democrats should not pursue impeachment if they win control of Congress.

"What I will encourage my colleagues to not do, especially those who have more fire in their belly in this area, is don't be impeaching anybody. Let's just get back to work," Duckworth said.

"I'm not interested in being in a confrontation with Donald Trump. I can be. I have been. It's not going to stop me. But I would rather move the ball forward through the benefit of the American people.

"And if we can do it in a way that allows him to save face and he doesn't stop us, then that's better for everybody all around."

Duckworth, speaking at an event on U.S. - China relations ahead of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's White House visit, said her priority was resolving tariffs that she said threaten Illinois soybean, corn, and pork farmers.

Trump was impeached by the House in 2019 and 2021 and acquitted by the Senate both times.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said on John Catsimatidis's "Cats Roundtable" radio show on Sept. 27 that a Democratic majority would turn oversight into a campaign against Republicans.

"You will see the Democrats take that oversight function and turn it into a weaponization of government. They will go after everybody. They say they're not going to, but we know they will," Jordan said.

"They'll do a third impeachment of President Trump.

"But that's just part of it. They're going to investigate the first family. They're going to investigate Cabinet secretaries, anyone.

"Jamie Raskin is going to go after Todd Blanche and Kash Patel. They're going to have people in other committees go after Secretary Hegseth and on and on; it's going to be."

Jordan said potential targets he believed that Democrats would go after include businesses that helped fund Trump's inauguration and potential 2028 Republican presidential candidates, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

"It'll be nonstop weaponized investigations, not for legitimate oversight, but to just go after your political opponents," he said.

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) is the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee and would be in line to lead it under a Democratic majority. The midterm elections are on Nov. 3.

The White House stated that the threats amount to "decades" of recycled "investigations against President Trump, his family, and his administration," in an emailed response to The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:15

Oklo Loses PJM Queue Fight As FERC Points To Flawed Application

Zero Hedge -

Oklo Loses PJM Queue Fight As FERC Points To Flawed Application

Data centers have become the favorite explanation for the price-of-power squeeze. But, years of inadequate transmission planning and clogged interconnection queues have left the system struggling to accommodate new generation, too.

As we previously highlighted with Three Mile Island’s restart, even a load that used to be connected to the grid can be told to wait several years before seeing a reconnection become possible.

Now, advanced reactor developer Oklo has provided another reminder of how expensive a place in that queue can become. Although, in this case, Oklo dug its own hole.

On September 24th, FERC rejected Oklo’s bid to reverse its removal from PJM’s current interconnection study cycle. The proposed Virginia project combines 150 MW of nuclear generation, 300 MW of fuel cells and 300 MW of gas generation.

PJM booted Oklo from the study cycle back in August. Oklo warned that losing its place would push development back by more than a year and increase costs, neither of which reflects positively on a nuclear industry recovering from decades of delays and cost overruns.

The dispute began after Oklo submitted its application in April. PJM identified multiple deficiencies in the application the next month, all of which Oklo claimed were fixed in the days immediately after being notified.

Then came a communications breakdown. In its emergency complaint filed in August, Oklo accused PJM of posting additional objections in its application portal without emailing a formal deficiency notice or allowing another repair round.

According to FERC’s order, PJM needed a workable computer model of the entire 750 MW facility. Oklo’s submission demonstrated stability only for the 300 MW fuel-cell portion. PJM said the nuclear and gas units became unstable when included.

After all the back-and-forth, Oklo was unable to save the application, and FERC ruled in PJM's favor. 

The worst part about the deal is arguably how painfully similar the entire situation is to Oklo's first attempt at licensing their reactor. After almost two years of back-and-forth with the NRC, the regulator rejected Oklo's submission, citing missing information regarding potential accidents and safety systems and components.

While Oklo did score a win recently with obtaining initial criticality on their isotope production reactor in Texas, this is another painful loss which shows the company may not have learned its lesson yet.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 12:00

Russia's Drones Zero In On Ukraine's Data Centers, Mobile Providers

Zero Hedge -

Russia's Drones Zero In On Ukraine's Data Centers, Mobile Providers

The Russian defense ministry on Tuesday indicated that it attacked and struck two military cargo vessels in the Black Sea as well as two data centers in the Ukrainian capital overnight.

The vessels, which were sailing foreign flags, were struck off Odessa, President Zelensky also confirmed in a Tuesday statement.

DSNS Ukraine

The Kyiv region along with ten other areas came under attack overnight, Zelensky acknowledged. But it is the capital which has been getting pounded, also following many weeks and months of Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian territory.

On Monday at least two people were killed when a drone hit National Academy of Sciences in the central part of the capital. The academy in a statement blasted the attack as "Russian terror" and "barbarity" aimed at "peaceful people who were simply at their workplaces."

A couple of new 'themes' have emerged in what have long been a nightly reality of devastating air raids. First, high flying jet-powered drones have been increasingly deployed by Russia.

The new Geran-5 is said to have anti-jamming capabilities and can travel up to an estimated 370mph, reports say. All of this makes them extremely hard to intercept.

Another theme is the war on data centers and mobile infrastructure. One regional source cited the Russian Defense Ministry as calling the campaign a 'mandatory digital detox' with grim sarcasm.

The same source documents the following recent attacks on data centers in Ukraine:

Russian forces continue to strike Ukrainian data centers. On September 25, they attacked an office building in Kyiv that houses a Datagroup data center. The center was damaged, but the company said all its services continued to run from backup sites.

On September 26, a Cosmonova data center in another Kyiv office building was hit. It had to shut down, interrupting broadcasts by several television channels. The strikes on data centers also left some Kyiv residents without internet access.

On September 28, a Russian drone struck an office building in Dnipro. The regional administration reported damage and casualties but did not say which companies occupied the building...

On September 26, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it was striking data centers because they “process and transmit intelligence data for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.” The next day, the ministry posted an image of a drone on social media with the caption “Digital detox” and the comment “Mandatory!”

At the start of this week Russia hit the headquarters of Kyivstar, Ukraine's largest mobile service provider, according to a statement by the company.

Reports of at least seven total killed and over 50 injured in the capital on Monday amid the major attack:

Additionally the Russian military had on Sunday announced hitting a data center belonging to Vodafone Ukraine, which is Ukraine's second-largest cell network provider - all of which strongly points to the campaign on comms infrastructure set to continue.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 11:30

Newly Released Fauci Files Reveal Dangerous NIAID-Funded Aerosolized Ebola Research

Zero Hedge -

Newly Released Fauci Files Reveal Dangerous NIAID-Funded Aerosolized Ebola Research

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) released documents from Dr. Fauci's diary and emails Monday detailing his dangerous NIAID-funded research during the Obama Administration, including a 2015 experiment that exposed vaccinated monkeys to aerosolized Ebola.

The risky research was conducted at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) at Fort Detrick under a NIAID task order. The NIAID study compared four vaccines in groups of four monkeys exposed to aerosolized Ebola. The exposure was engineered to drive the virus deep into the lungs in a way natural infection would not, the records show.

The vaccinated primates reportedly developed necrosis, inflammation, and fibrin in the lungs, while the unvaccinated controls did not, indicating that the vaccine itself was making the disease worse. The experiments left 80 percent of vaccinated monkeys dead.

"What idiots those guys at USAMRIID are," Fauci wrote on March 7, 2016. The work "should have been a classified experiment that never should have been done in the first place," he added. Two days later, however, then-NIAID director wrote that the experiments were "important for bio defense."

Fauci was outraged that the failed vaccine research was shared with U.S. embassy officials in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

"This should have been a classified experiment," he wrote in his diary. "The foolish DOD people send the data to the FDA and then circulated as FYI to various embassies including those in West Africa where we are about to engage on a much larger DSD vaccine trial for Ebola."

According to Fauci, the embassy officials "went bonkers" because it looked like the U.S. wanted to vaccinate people with a dangerous vaccine.

He also said such experiments should have been classified because they "could indicate a vulnerability."

However, NIAID's own report states that at no time had clearances been requested, nor was classification ever mentioned. Moreover, the data had already gone to vaccine manufacturers, and some of it had already been published.

Nonetheless, Fauci was dismayed when a Department of Defense official mentioned the experiments were funded by NIAID during a White House briefing. "No one followed up on that, but I almost fell off my chair!!!!" he wrote in an email to his colleagues at NIAID.

Following this disclosure, NIAID officials discussed "damage control" in an email chain. "We may need to a bit of damage control here," NIAID's biodefense director wrote.

The problem for Fauci wasn't the dangerous experiments, but the possibility the public could find out about the dangerous experiments. So he took immediate steps to have the research classified.

"The DoD folks said that they wanted to publish the data. I said that I thought that it should be classified and the NSC people blew them out of the water and said that they agreed with me," he said.

Deputy Director Cliff Lane told two NIAID scientists not to move forward on Ebola experiments until the dust settled, warning that "one might consider this dual use research." He instructed his colleagues not to discuss the matter with anyone until he had a chance to talk to them.

Four days later, NIAID researcher Peter Jahrling warned that if aerosol challenge studies were treated as dual use research of concern, "the entire MCM development paradigm is gutted," and wrote "I will keep the rest off Email."

In the same message, Jahrling ominously noted that with the Ebola work paused, NIAID would "continue to make plans to initiate the CoV [COVID-19] study as soon as the lights turn green."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 11:10

FICO Crashes Most Since 2004 As Pulte's Mortgage Score Shakeup Threatens Its Moat

Zero Hedge -

FICO Crashes Most Since 2004 As Pulte's Mortgage Score Shakeup Threatens Its Moat

Fair Isaac, the company that produces FICO scores, saw its shares crash the most in 22 years early Tuesday in cash trading after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte announced on X that a mortgage-pricing change that Wall Street analysts say could accelerate adoption of rival VantageScore and undermine FICO's moat. 

"We are Simplifying Mortgage Pricing following feedback from lenders and consumers. Instead of two separate pricing grids, which makes zero sense, Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid," Pulte posted on X Monday. 

Pulte cited a press release from Rocket Mortgage that stated: "Rocket Mortgage did an extensive study that helped the company determine VantageScore 4.0 opens access to some clients who wouldn't be served otherwise, and many are able to secure a mortgage on better pricing terms. For those who saved money with VantageScore 4.0, the savings was an average of $1,600 at closing. FHFA and Director Pulte are encouraging competition and innovation in pilot programs."

The change gives lenders a stronger incentive to adopt VantageScore, potentially lowering costs for homebuyers while threatening FICO's market share and pricing power. Traders responded by sending FICO shares tumbling 22% earlier this morning - the largest intraday decline since July 13, 2004.

Here's what Wall Street analysts had to say (courtsey of Bloomberg): 

FT Partners

  • With pricing now in line, VantageScore could see increased adoption, with a lower hurdle for more favorable LLPA pricing, says analyst Craig Maurer
  • The move will allow more borrowers to qualify for lower rates, adding to VantageScore's existing cost advantage
  • Under a common LLPA grid, borrowers whose VantageScore 4.0 exceeds their classic FICO scores could qualify for a more favorable pricing bucket when selected

TD Cowen

  • The news presents a risk to FICO because it's not about which model is more predictive of defaults; it's about the regulators shifting LLPA pricing to get lenders to use VantageScore over FICO, says housing policy analyst Jaret Seiberg
  • One long-term worry is that it creates an incentive for FICO and VantageScore to compete on producing scores that result in lowest LLPAs rather than on the risk of default

RBC (rates FICO as outperform)

  • The news meaningfully raises the risk of score shopping, where lenders select whichever model produces the more favorable credit score and a lower mortgage interest rate, says analyst Ashish Sabadra
  • With unified pricing, VantageScore's market share gains could accelerate
  • Another risk is FICO may need to hasten its shift away from traditional per-pull origination fees toward other pricing structures to defend its economics

Deutsche Bank analyst Faiza Alwy asked clients, "Where is the moat?" 

Alwy provided clients with her first take on the developments:

Single pricing grid plus Rocket to use VS4 as preferred credit scoring model

There were two important and negative developments that happened post-close yesterday. The first one was FHFA Director Pulte indicating on X that based on lender feedback, the GSEs will operate on one LLPA grid and VantageScore 4.0 (VS4) will now join the existing FICO Classic grid. This means that the VS4 20 point discount to FICO has been removed by the FHFA and both scores will now be treated the same by the GSEs. This would likely in and of itself result in higher number of mortgages that will see favorable pricing with VS4 vs. FICO Classic. We would have expected continuing gaming and for lenders to optimize pricing with this change. However, the announcement from Rocket this evening following this change is meaningfully negative and consequential for FICO.

Rocket Mortgage announced that it will become the first mortgage lender to use VS4 as its preferred credit scoring model for all eligible loans. Specifically, during 4Q26, the company will default to VS4 for mortgages that will be delivered to GSEs, VA home loans and any other eligible mortgages. The company noted that after four months of testing, it found that VS4 helped more clients qualify and move forward in the mortgage process, while also reducing credit scoring costs. Rocket is a top mortgage originator with ~5-6% share (possibly higher following the acquisition of Mr Cooper in 4Q25).

We're not entirely sure what the words "preferred" and "default" exactly mean at the moment but the worst case interpretation for FICO would be that Rocket Mortgage will not be pulling FICO scores at all when eligible. Important to note that the above excludes mortgages for investment properties and second homes, HELOCs, FHA loans, jumbo loans and some other products. Rocket Pro, the division that provides home loans through mortgage broker partners, will continue to provide both VantageScore and FICO to mortgage brokers. Rocket Pro comprised about 30% of the company's origination volume in 2025. We estimate that in aggregate about both scores would be pulled 50% of the time (at origination). Encouragingly for FICO, Rocket did indicate that they will continue to evaluate new options as they become available (a likely reference to FICO 10T).

Could other lenders follow suit? It would make sense to assume that UWM would follow suit but we note that UWM operates exclusively as a wholesale lender and competes directly with RocketPro. Other lenders were not particularly active in the pilot program, so we expected limited movement near-term.

What does this mean for FICO's mortgage strategy? FICO's management continues to believe that notwithstanding significant price increases in the last few years, the score remains under-priced relative to the value it is providing. We expect FICO's 2027 approach to pricing to be variable by lender with the company offering and implementing the performance model for some lenders. Ultimately this makes us much less confident with respect to FICO's mortgage revenue algorithm at least in the near-term. That said, we believe the non-GSE securitization market will require FICO Classic for an extended period of time; recall that the FHFA has indicated it will provide both VS4 and FICO on all GSE loans that are securitized to investors. We suspect FICO will attempt to monetize the securitization channel or GSEs.

We will revisit our model as we gather additional information and the mechanics of these new late developments. In the interim, we expect FICO stock to understandably react negatively.

With FICO's competitive moat under pressure, this new development raises the risk of "score shopping," as lenders select the credit-scoring model that secures the most favorable mortgage pricing for prospective homebuyers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:55

Record Plunge In Real-Estate Job Opening Sends JOLTS Sharply Lower, Hints At Ugly Jobs Report

Zero Hedge -

Record Plunge In Real-Estate Job Opening Sends JOLTS Sharply Lower, Hints At Ugly Jobs Report

After five straight months of JOLTS beats earlier in the year, including two blowout prints for April and May and zero misses since 2025, the June JOLTS report was a surprising miss (despite the previously discussed surge in government job openings). One month later, the July JOLTS report made it two misses for two, when the US reportedly had 7.271 million job openings, modestly below the consensus estimate. Fast forward to today when moments ago the BLS reported that in August the number of job openings dropped from an upward revised 7.335 million (which ironically would have been a beat to last month's estimate), to 7.079 million...

.... missing the consensus estimate of 7.228 million for the third month in a row.

Notably, this was the first upward revision to the data after three months. Of course, nobody can possibly forget the three straight years of negative revisions between 2023 and 2025...  

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.1 million and 4.3 percent, respectively. As shown in the table below, there were gains in trade, information, leisure and hospitality job openings, offset by declines in construction, manufacturing, professional/business services, and private education job openings.

The most notable category, however, was real estate and rental and leasing job openings, which plunged by almost half, dropping to just 50K in August, the lowest since Feb 2014.

The August rise in job openings was juxtaposed with an overall drop in July employment, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, and after 4 months of modest improvements in the number of excess job openings, we are back to being on the verge of having fewer job openings than unemployed workers, as the August surplus tumbled to just 48K from 419K the month before, and a concerning development for the broader labor market which according to most other measures continues to fire on all cylinders.

The latest JOLTS data also means that after rising as high as 1.1x in July, the ratio of job openings to unemployed dropped back down to 1.0x.

While the job openings number was far weaker than expected for the third time this year, in July we also saw continued weakness in quits offset by a small bounce in hires. In August the number of Quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - dropped by another 23K to 3.066MM from 3.089MM indicating a drop in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere; at the same time hires rose modestly by 46K, from 5.146MM to 5.192MM.

It goes without saying that disappointing job openings (which tumbled after an upward revision) while quits slump and hires barely rise, leads one to scratch their head how weak the labor market truly is. 

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the August payrolls report surged by 162K (at a time when the hires less separations print was 122K). And since the JOLTS implied number is far weaker than that, having printed negative for a third month in a row, we expect the August payrolls report this Friday to be yet another catch down, and will likely be much lower than the 162K increase reported last month. 

Overall, this was a weak JOLTS report, with weakness in both openings and quits, and shows that after some significant strength in the early part of of 2026, US labor market is now hitting an air pocket and this could translate into another notable miss in this Friday jobs report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:45

AI Is Repricing Capital Before It Reprices The Economy

Zero Hedge -

AI Is Repricing Capital Before It Reprices The Economy

Authored by Cory Frank via RealClearMarkets,

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75 to 4 percent. Inflation remains elevated even as economic activity continues to expand, productivity is strong and capital investment remains robust.

At Jackson Hole a few weeks earlier, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh highlighted another unusual feature of the economy. Business capital spending is rising rapidly, and he estimated that more than half of its growth this year can likely be attributed to the artificial intelligence buildout.

AI did not cause the Fed's latest rate increase. Inflation, energy prices, and broader economic demand all matter. But the confluence raises a question that receives far less attention than whether AI will eliminate jobs or justify technology valuations:

What is the AI investment boom doing to the price of capital before the productivity gains arrive?

The answer matters even to businesses that never build a data center, buy a GPU or train an AI model.

The Investment Comes First

Artificial intelligence is usually discussed in terms of what it will eventually do. It can automate work, analyze enormous amounts of data, accelerate research, write software and improve decision-making. If those capabilities diffuse throughout the economy, companies should eventually be able to produce more with the same or fewer resources. That could restrain production costs and reduce inflationary pressure.

But before AI can make much of the economy more productive, someone has to build the infrastructure that makes it possible.

McKinsey estimates that data centers could require roughly $6.7 trillion in worldwide capital investment through 2030, including about $5.2 trillion for AI workloads. That means enormous spending on computing hardware, power, cooling, land and the infrastructure connecting it all.

The Federal Reserve is already seeing the effect. Business fixed investment rose at an 11 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, and the Fed concluded that most of that strength appeared connected to infrastructure supporting AI services. At the same time, investment outside AI-related categories, particularly offices and manufacturing structures, remained relatively weak.

That sequencing matters.

The investment comes first. The productivity comes later.

A Repricing of Capital

Capital does not have to become scarce for its price to change. Investors only need better alternatives.

For much of the period following the financial crisis, capital was plentiful and interest rates were low. Investors searched for yield. Businesses borrowed cheaply. Real estate benefited from low required returns. Companies could leave excess cash sitting in operating accounts because the opportunity cost was minimal.

The environment today is different.

Data centers need capital. So do power plants, transmission systems, semiconductor facilities and the businesses supporting them. Governments continue to borrow heavily. Traditional infrastructure needs financing. Companies throughout the economy still need money to expand. This can contribute to a broader repricing of capital.

AI is creating potentially productive places to deploy enormous amounts of money. If those opportunities offer compelling returns, every other potential investment has to compete with them.

The economy does not have to run out of money. The opportunity cost of money only has to rise.

Consider an apartment building. Its tenants, rents and operating costs might not change materially. But if an investor can earn more attractive risk-adjusted returns financing data centers, power infrastructure, semiconductor capacity or other investments, that building now competes against a different opportunity set.

An apartment building does not need an AI strategy for AI to affect its valuation.

The Hurdle Rate Moves Inside the Company

Higher required returns do more than move bond yields and asset prices. They change which projects actually get funded.

A corporate investment that cleared the hurdle rate when capital cost 5 percent may not clear it at 8 percent. A plant expansion gets delayed. An acquisition no longer pencils. Paying down debt becomes more attractive. Management becomes more selective about capital expenditures, inventory and working capital.

Higher capital costs do not live only in financial markets. They move inside the company.

Cash changes character as well.

When interest rates were close to zero, excess operating cash earned almost nothing. The financial penalty for managing liquidity inefficiently was relatively small. When safe assets offer meaningful returns and borrowing remains expensive, every dollar sitting on a balance sheet carries a measurable opportunity cost.

A company can invest that dollar in its business, reduce debt, return it to shareholders, preserve it for liquidity or earn a market return until it is needed. Treasury management therefore becomes part of capital allocation, not merely an administrative function.

It is also important to distinguish among different prices of money.

The Federal Reserve sets an overnight policy rate. Financial markets determine longer-term yields. Businesses and investors establish hurdle rates based on those benchmarks, risk and the returns available elsewhere. Those rates do not have to move together.

The Fed can eventually reduce short-term rates as inflation moderates while investors continue to require relatively high returns to commit capital for five, ten or thirty years. Conversely, a weakening economy could pull both policy rates and required returns lower.

That is why the central question is not simply whether AI causes the Fed to raise or lower interest rates. It is whether AI raises the marginal cost of capital across the economy before its full productivity benefits arrive.

Don't Confuse the Buildout With the Equilibrium

None of this tells us where AI ultimately takes interest rates.

Rapid labor displacement could increase unemployment, weaken demand and eventually push rates lower. The infrastructure boom could overshoot, leaving excess data-center, semiconductor and power capacity and ending in an investment bust. Or AI could work extraordinarily well, expanding productive capacity, making some forms of U.S. manufacturing more competitive and driving down the cost of goods and services.

Several of those things could happen at the same time.

Those are questions about the mature AI economy.

We should examine them, but they are inherently more difficult to forecast than the capital cycle unfolding in front of us.

Today, the investment demand is observable.

Trillions of dollars are being committed to physical and digital infrastructure. Labor, energy, equipment and capital are being deployed now. Much of the eventual productivity payoff remains ahead of us. That difference matters because the economics of the buildout may look very different from the economics of the mature AI economy.

The first broad economic impact of AI may not be that it makes everything cheaper. It may be that it raises the value of capital.

We are not yet living in the mature AI economy. We are financing its construction.

AI may eventually lower the price of goods. It is already changing the price of capital.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:25

'Worse Than COVID': Consumer Confidence Crashes In September

Zero Hedge -

'Worse Than COVID': Consumer Confidence Crashes In September

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged in September (-6.7pt to 81.9) - the lowest headline print since April 2014.

The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory.

This was the fourth straight monthly miss for confidence and the biggest miss since Dec 2024...

"Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

"Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”

Perceptions of current employment conditions also softened, with the labor market differential - the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” - retreating tumbling to its lowest since Feb 2021...

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence across all age groups and nearly all income groups trended downward.

While higher-income groups remained generally more optimistic, those with a household income of $125,000-$149,000 reported the greatest decline in confidence over the last six months.

By generation, confidence for Gen Z, followed by Millennials, remained the highest on a six-month moving average basis.

Confidence continued to weaken among the three oldest generations - Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation.

Confidence fell in September across all political affiliations - Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations also jumped in September to 6.1% and 5.1% respectively.

The share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped by 5.2 ppts to 68.4%. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise in the next 12 months, but optimism moderated in September.

Finally, consumers’ write-in responses regarding factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September: 

"References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs.

Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent."

Not pretty... especially into the Midterms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/29/2026 - 10:17

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