Strategy Adds $467 Million In Cash, No Bitcoin As StanChart Warns Saylor Needs Clarity In Pivot Message To Convince Investors

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, raised fresh capital by selling MSTR shares through its at-the-market (ATM) offering last week while leaving its BTC treasury unchanged.

As CoinTelegraph's Helen Partz reports, Strategy sold 4.8 million shares of its Class A common stock for $466.7 million between July 6 and July 12, according to a Monday 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 

The company did not buy or sell any Bitcoin during the period and reported holdings of 843,775 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,476 per BTC. 

The update comes as investors continue to watch how Strategy balances equity issuance, Bitcoin accumulation and its growing preferred stock offerings as it expands its BTC-focused corporate strategy.

Ahead of Monday's Nasdaq open, MSTR shares were trading down roughly 3%, to $91.80 apiece, according to Yahoo Finance. Bitcoin was trading at about $62,580, down more than 2% in the past 24 hours.

Cash buffer grows to $3 billion

Strategy increased its US dollar reserve to $3 billion as of July 12, up from $2.55 billion a week earlier. The reserve is used to fund dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest payments on its outstanding debt.

The reserve includes expected proceeds from MSTR shares sold through the company's ATM offering that had not yet settled as of the reporting date.

Source: SEC

Strategy has $23.8 billion of remaining capacity under its MSTR ATM offering, including capacity from a new $21 billion offering the company announced on March 23. The company said it may begin selling shares under the additional capacity once the existing offering is substantially depleted.

Last week, Strategy announced it sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million to replenish its US dollar reserve and fund preferred stock dividend payments.

The transactions included the sale of 1,363 BTC at an average price of $59,256 between June 29 and June 30, followed by another 2,225 BTC at an average price of $60,773 between July 1 and July 5.

In the same June 29 8-K filing, Strategy also reported no BTC purchases, while disclosing the sale of 12.7 million MSTR shares through its ATM offering, generating $1.15 billion in net proceeds.

STRC moves to twice-monthly dividend schedule

Strategy is boosting its USD reserve as it readies its first semi-monthly dividend payment to its STRC preferred stock holders on Wednesday.

Under a new schedule announced on June 8, STRC will use record dates on the 15th and the last day of each month, with payments made on the following record date.

The first semi-monthly record date was June 30, 2026, with the first payment date scheduled for July 15.

Saylor

Additionally, CoinTelegraph's Robert Lakin notes that Strategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor again took to social media on Sunday to offer his latest signal to investors, even as one analyst said Saylor’s messaging needed more clarity to help Bitcoin regain its momentum.

“Orange dots tell only part of the story,” was Saylor’s message in a post that accompanied a chart from Saylortracker.com, similar to previous social media messages that have preceded news of Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) purchases, typically announced the day after his posts.

Need clarity in BTC pivot message to convince investors: StanChart

Standard Charter’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said Strategy’s recent actions - and Saylor's manner of communicating them - “are muddying the waters for BTC near-term.”

“We think effective communication of MSTR’s new strategy (using BTC to back STRC) is key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely; this should in turn support BTC prices,” Kendrick wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

“Indeed, if this signalling proves effective, it should remove the need for MSTR to actually sell any BTC by supporting STRC’s price,” he said.

StanChart sees inconsistencies in “never sell” approach

Kendrick said that Strategy’s long-held “never sell” approach limited what the company could with its industry-biggest digital asset treasury.

“The problem with the ‘never sell’ approach is that it limits what MSTR’s BTC holdings can do — or, perhaps more importantly, what they are perceived to be doing,” the StanChart analyst said.

“MSTR has started to shift its communication strategy on this in recent months. It has sold BTC twice and recently announced a BTC monetization program.”

Source: Standard Chartered Bank

Still, he sees Strategy’s “market signaling” as potentially improving soon and bringing more clarity to the outlook for Bitcoin, on which StanChart maintains its $100,000 year-end forecast.

Shares struggle from year low ahead of earnings report

Investors who bought into the Strategy narrative have not had an easy time in the past 12 months. The STRC preferred shares were formulated to hold a price of $100 apiece. Shareholders saw that par value fall to the wayside last month, to the lowest value since the preferred stock was introduced a year ago.

The common shares, trading under the MSTR ticker, have lost more than 70% of their value since July 2025, closing at $94.64 per share on Friday, down from a 52-week high of $457.22.

The company is slated to report second-quarter earnings on July 30, with analysts consensus of $4.28 per share, according to Yahoo Finance data. Earnings have fallen short of analyst forecasts in six of the last eight quarters, according to Fintel.io data, including a 33.76% negative surprise in the first quarter of 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 11:20

Mamdani's Affordability Agenda Flops As NYC Rents Surge To Record Highs

New York City's socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, and his radical-left lieutenants in City Hall promised voters free bus rides, government-run grocery stores, cheap housing, and much more. Yet the dream of a left-wing utopia has not materialized. In fact, rents in the NYC metro area just hit a record high.

New data from The Corcoran Group, a major residential real estate brokerage founded in NYC, shows that rents in the metro area have climbed to a new record high.

Manhattan's median rent rose 8% from a year earlier to $5,295, while Brooklyn reached $4,350, also up 8%, according to the report. Manhattan's vacancy rate narrowed to 1.49%. In Queens, Rego Park posted particularly sharp increases, with one-bedroom rents up 12% and studio rents up more than 20%.

"Manhattan renters are chasing a shrinking pool of available apartments, and the result has become predictable — record rents. Available listings dropped 16% year-over-year in June, while the borough's median rent climbed to a new high of $5,295 . Leasing activity clocked in 7% below last year's pace due to the lack of inventory, causing competition to remain fierce. Additionally, June marked one year since implementation of the FARE Act, a milestone that may still be influencing pricing trends, particularly within the non-doorman market. Across the board, quality apartments are commanding a premium, and renters have little room to negotiate," Corcoran COO Gary Malin wrote in the report.

Malin continued, "Brooklyn's rental market is also rewriting the record books. Median rent jumped 8% year-over-year to an all-time high of $4,350 and apartments spent 30% fewer days on the market. This steep annual decline underscores how tight the market has become, with flat inventory and strong demand strong causing available units to rent far faster than a year ago. While lease signings were lower on an annual basis, activity picked up from May as renters moved quickly to secure apartments ahead of the busiest stretch of the summer season. Throughout the borough, competition."

City Comptroller Mark Levine commented on the new report, saying, "NYC's housing affordability crisis is at DEFCON 1. We need to push harder on every front to address our housing shortage."

"Update zoning, invest more City $ in affordable units, lower the time & cost City bureaucracy imposes on construction, get 1000s of vacant regulated units back on the market. We need bold action. This is a crisis," Levine added.

Rents in NYC have just hit an all-time high.

Median market rate in June…

Manhattan: $5,295/mo (+8.2% year-over-year)

Brooklyn: $4,350 (+8.1%)

NYC’s housing affordability crisis is at DefCon 1. We need to push harder on every front to address our housing shortage.

Update…

— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) July 12, 2026

Yet, as Libs of TikTok on X pointed out, "We don't have a housing shortage. We have an illegal alien invasion," adding, "Forty percent of NYC rentals are occupied by people born outside the US."

We don’t have a housing shortage. We have an illegal alien invasion https://t.co/4JW59k17Uu

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 13, 2026

Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published a new report showing that the "unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration" sparked a nationwide housing demand shock in the presence of a relatively fixed short-run housing supply, accounting for 30% of home price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average local market during the boom period.

Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America bloc at City Hall will never acknowledge the illegal alien invasion has played a major role in tightening NYC's housing market. Instead, the response from far-left clowns is blaming "racist capitalism" and arguing that the existing system must be dismantled for one that actually has never worked anywhere in the world - look at Cuba.  

That leaves a fundamental policy contradiction: Mamdani and his socialist allies claim they can solve the affordability crisis by building more housing, yet that will take years. The easiest solution would be to cooperate with ICE or support deportations, which could reduce pressure on housing, schools, and other public services almost immediately. Good luck reconciling those positions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 11:00

Obama Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin's Anti-DEI Grant Conditions

Via American Greatness,

A federal judge in California has blocked the Trump administration’s push to attach anti-DEI strings to federal grant money. The court ruled this week that the executive branch overstepped its constitutional authority by imposing the conditions on a group of West Coast cities and counties.

Obama-nominated U.S. District Judge William Orrick granted a preliminary injunction Thursday barring the Departments of Homeland Security, Justice and the Interior from enforcing the contested conditions against 11 local governments, concluding in a 68-page order that the restrictions likely run afoul of both the separation-of-powers doctrine and the Administrative Procedure Act.

“What defendants seek to do likely violates the Constitution (separation of powers and Spending Clause) and the Administrative Procedures Act,” Orrick wrote.

The suit was filed by the cities of Fresno, Santa Clara, Redwood City, Santa Cruz, Stockton, Beaverton, Corvallis and Hillsboro, along with Los Angeles, San Diego and Santa Barbara counties, all of which argued the administration attached ideological requirements to grants Congress had already approved for public safety, disaster preparedness, policing, fire protection, water conservation and crime victim services.

Orrick sided with the localities, finding the new certification requirements “have nothing to do with or contradict the Congressional purpose” behind the underlying grant programs, and affirming that spending authority ultimately rests with Congress rather than the White House.

“Plaintiffs maintain that ‘[n]othing in the Constitution or federal statutes authorizes Defendants to impose the Challenged Conditions, or anything of the kind, on funds administered through congressional grant programs,'” Orrick wrote. “I agree.”

The conditions at issue required grant recipients to certify they were not running programs that promote diversity, equity and inclusion in violation of federal anti-discrimination law, along with separate provisions encouraging cooperation with federal immigration enforcement and compliance with related executive orders.

The administration has  said such conditions are a legitimate use of executive authority to ensure federal dollars aren’t used to fund discriminatory practices, and the Justice Department is expected to appeal Thursday’s ruling.

Orrick found that letting the conditions stand while the case proceeds would jeopardize funding for programs including anti-terrorism initiatives, disaster mitigation, flood protection, wildfire preparedness, law enforcement training, forensic science, and human trafficking and crime-victim services — writing that the disruption would “irreparably injure plaintiffs and their ability to provide critical services, as well as would threaten public safety.”

The preliminary injunction will remain in effect while the underlying lawsuit moves forward, leaving the administration’s broader anti-DEI funding strategy in legal limbo pending the expected appeal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 10:40

British MP Exposes Secret Society Behind UK's Lurch Toward Socialism

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

The stunning transformation of Great Britain in recent years - from a beacon of decorum and stiff upper lips to a cautionary tale of wokeness run amok - has been blamed on everything from socialism to satanism.

However, Rupert Lowe, a member of the British Parliament and founder of the organization Restore Britain, said the reality may be even more sinister.

In a recent appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, he said a shadowy group of elites known as the Fabian Society was deliberately trying to wreck the country.

“I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of the Fabian Society, but if you go and have a look at it, it was basically most of the Labour Party for many, many years,” Lowe said, referring to England’s leading left-wing party, the equivalent of U.S. Democrats.

The British people need to understand the powerful malign influence of the Fabian Society. pic.twitter.com/i3uY9sJfj8

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) July 11, 2026

America’s Left may be facing a similar identity crisis as it tries to shake off the subversive influence of the Justice Democrats, Democrat Socialists of America and other fringe elements that are pushing neo-Marxist ideas.

But the British version has been around for nearly 150 years. The club, founded in 1884, was a direct reaction to the philosophy of Karl Marx (who died a year earlier in London).

Rather than forcing a collectivist government as Marx suggested, through class struggle — which generally led to uncomfortable outcomes for aristocrats — the society advocated for a socialist society to take root slowly and incrementally.

It was the brainchild of intellectuals including the man who first created “My Fair Lady” heroine Eliza Doolittle — playwright George Bernard Shaw. Science-fiction visionary H.G. Wells also counted himself a member.

“It’s the most extraordinary organization,” Lowe told Rogan. “Their emblem is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, as if that doesn’t tell you what they’re doing.”

Among the beliefs it endorsed was eugenics, the idea of breeding out unwanted attributes through various means, scientific and otherwise.

While the Nazis would go on to run with the idea — and ultimately help to effect its demise — the Fabian Society also was rumored to have inspired author George Orwell, whose dystopian 1984 (written in the late 1940s) was set exactly 100 years after the society’s founding.

The Fabian Society was created in 1884, & why George Orwells book is called 1984, as he figured the Fabian Society would have completed their mission within 100 years.

He was a bit off with the timing, but not with their evil agenda & what they are trying to achieve. pic.twitter.com/70LA5kyaHW

— NWO Dissident 1776. (@An89390Anglo) July 10, 2026

According to Lowe, not all of the society’s ideas have vanished entirely. Rather, some of them simply evolved into a modern political framework.

“Everyone should look at the Fabian Society, because that runs deep through the veins of Labour,” he said.

Writing for The Telegraph, former Fabian research director Stephen Pollard sought to dismantle the claims by attacking Lowe as a conspiracy theorist. However, his argument may have only helped to make the case for some that “basically what it wants to do is destroy all good and create a dependency culture.”

After defending ideas like eugenics as having been widely accepted in their time, Pollard insisted that the current society was more concerned with selling magazine subscriptions than world domination.

Many of its policy papers now deal with addressing the nation’s housing crisis.

“To take that and conclude that they are in fact part of a secret cabal dedicated to destroying Britain is not so much misguided as a sign that someone is truly away with the fairies,” he claimed.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Warsh Testifies, China Data, And Earnings Galore

As well as two epic World Cup semi-finals before that, and the start of the Open golf it’s a packed week ahead in markets, writes DB's Jim Reid.

The headline events are tomorrow’s US CPI and Wednesday’s US PPI, alongside Fed Chair Warsh’s first Humphrey–Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (tomorrow) and the Senate Banking Committee (Wednesday). Elsewhere, key data includes China’s Q2 GDP and their monthly data dump (Wednesday) and the UK’s May monthly GDP (Thursday) as well as the announcement of a new leader of the ruling UK Labour Party as a special conference on Friday.

Let's run through the key details of the week ahead.

Front and centre is tomorrow’s US CPI report. DB economists expect lower gas prices to pull headline CPI down by -0.16% (vs. +0.47% in May), with core at +0.23% (vs. +0.21% previously). On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected to fall from 4.25% to 3.81%, while core eases only marginally by 2bps to 2.83%.

Wednesday’s PPI will help complete the picture for core PCE. DB economists’ forecast is for a +0.23% increase (vs. +0.32% last month), which would see the year-over-year rate decline by 3bps to 3.38%. Within the details, the price index for portfolio management and investment advice will be worth watching, particularly given the boost from May’s equity rally.

Turning to the rest of the data calendar, Thursday’s June US retail sales and Friday’s industrial production will feed into estimates for Q2 real GDP growth. The preliminary University of Michigan survey (52.0 expected at DB vs. 49.5) on Friday will also be in focus, particularly inflation expectations, which have started to moderate from a high level after recent energy-driven increases.

After a relatively quiet spell for Fed speakers, this week brings a wave of communication ahead of the blackout period starting at the end of the week. Governor Waller begins today with a speech at NYABE. Chair Warsh follows with his testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, while additional commentary comes after the CPI release (Governor Cook on Wednesday, and Vice Chair Jefferson, Dallas Fed’s Logan, and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid on Friday). This week effectively represents the final window for policymakers to signal their thinking ahead of the July FOMC meeting. Reid expects Warsh to broadly stick to recent messaging and avoid firm guidance on near-term policy moves. In contrast, Waller has historically been more explicit about their reaction function, so today’s speech will be closely scrutinised for clues on their preferred policy path—even though it arrives before the CPI data.

Staying with the global theme, central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday, no change expected) and the Bank of Korea (Thursday, DB forecast a +25bp hike) will also be in focus. In China, growth is expected to slow to 4.4% YoY in Q2 (from 5% in Q1), with June activity data released alongside. More detail is available in our Chinese economists’ full week-ahead note here. Finally, the UK reports May monthly GDP on Thursday, the day before Andy Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour Party leader, ahead of him officially taking the PM reins a week today and tapping into the England World Cup winning celebrations. Oh wait this must be another major hallucination.

And just to keep everyone busy, Q2 US earnings season kicks off tomorrow with results from five major US banks. Q1 marked the strongest non-recessionary rebound since the late 1990s, so the bar is high. ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday) should also provide an early read on global tech trends. On earnings, tomorrow features JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Wednesday brings Morgan Stanley alongside ASML, Johnson & Johnson and BlackRock, offering a useful cross-sector snapshot. Thursday is especially busy, with TSMC, Netflix, General Electric and UnitedHealth reporting across tech, industrials and healthcare. By Friday, attention shifts to European names including Volvo, Sandvik and Saab, rounding out the global picture.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 13

• Data: US June federal budget balance, Germany May current account balance
• Central banks: Fed's Bowman and Waller speak, ECB's Schnabel speaks, BoE's Pill speaks

Tuesday July 14

• Data: US June CPI, NFIB small business optimism, May total net TIC flows, China June trade balance, Japan May capacity utilisation, Germany June wholesale price index
• Central banks: Fed Chair Warsh testimony before House Financial Services Committee, Fed's Barr, Cook, Bowman and Goolsbee speak, BoE's Bailey speaks
• Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup

Wednesday July 15

• Data: US July Empire manufacturing index, June PPI, China Q2 GDP, June retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, Japan May core machine orders, Eurozone May industrial production, Italy May general government debt, Canada June existing home sales, May manufacturing sales
• Central banks: Bank of Canada decision, Fed Chair Warsh testimony before Senate Banking Committee, Fed’s Beige Book, Fed's Cook, Williams and Musalem speak, ECB's Nagel and Panetta speak
• Earnings: ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Progressive, Bank of New York Mellon

Thursday July 16

• Data: US July NAHB housing market index, New York Fed services business activity, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, June retail sales, pending home sales, May business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK May monthly GDP, Italy May trade balance, Eurozone May trade balance
• Central banks: Fed's Logan and Schmid speak, Bank of Korea decision
• Earnings: TSMC, UnitedHealth, General Electric, Netflix, ABB, Abbott, Intuitive Surgical, Prologis, Atlas Copco, State Street, Publicis Groupe, Alcoa

Friday July 17

• Data: US June industrial production, import price index, export price index, housing starts, building permits, capacity utilisation, July University of Michigan survey, Italy May current account balance, ECB May current account, Canada May international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed's Jefferson speaks, ECB's Cipollone speaks
• Earnings: Volvo, Sandvik, Saab

Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week including Chairman Warsh's semiannual Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday, July 13 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 
• 05:25 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks:  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at a Bank Policy Institute roundtable on modernizing financial regulation. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 12:30 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the New York Association of Business Economics. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 6, Waller said, "forward guidance can help speed up policy transmission, but if it is not flexible enough, it can hinder policy transmission." 

Tuesday, July 14 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), June (GS -0.11%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.5%); Core CPI (MoM), June (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), June (GS +3.87%, consensus +3.8%, last +4.2%); Core CPI (YoY), June (GS +2.76%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%): We estimate a 0.17% increase in June core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.8% on a rounded basis. We expect soft autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% decline in used car prices, a 0.1% decline in new car prices, and a 0.1% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.23% increase in the OER category and a 0.17% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We expect more moderate increases in the travel services categories (airfares: +1.5%; hotels: +0.3%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. We expect downward pressure from potential residual seasonality on the communication and new cars categories. We estimate a 0.11% decline in headline CPI—reflecting lower energy prices (-4.4%)—which would lower the year-over-year rate to +3.87% from +4.25%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.24% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in June. We expect another large increase in the financial services component—reflecting the increase in equity prices in May, which flow through to the component with a lag—to contribute to the larger increase in core PCE prices than the core CPI.
• 10:00 AM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. In a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh said that “inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down,” and that if AI causes the supply side to expand, “that has huge implications for monetary policy.”
• 12:40 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on artificial intelligence at Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat at the Kenosha Area Business Alliance. Q&A is expected. On June 25, Goolsbee said, “You have seen now a little bit of improvement on this services inflation, and I’ve been identifying that as something that we would want to see. But right now, between the two sides of the Fed’s mandate, the inflation side and the job market side, clearly the problem’s on the inflation side.”
• 01:30 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will moderate a discussion on consumers, artificial intelligence, and financial inclusion at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 02:55 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on responsible innovation and financial inclusion via a pre-recorded video at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. 

Wednesday, July 15 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, July (consensus 9.3, last 5.7)
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, June (GS +0.2%, consensus flat, last +1.1%); PPI ex-food and energy, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%)
• 08:45 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at an event organized by Partnership for New York City. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 9, Williams said, "The markets still expect oil prices to come down over the next six to 12 months. I think that's a pretty reasonable baseline. I still feel the fundamentals are that energy prices are likely to be around their peak and then to come down over time."
• 10:00 AM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on the Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on the economic outlook at the Exchequer Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 
• 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige Book, July meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the June FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts and that there were reports of increased credit card usage, fewer retail visits, and stronger demand for necessities. In this month’s Beige Book, we will mainly look for anecdotes related to how consumers and firms are responding to the increase in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East.
• 06:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver welcoming remarks in the 2026 Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the St. Louis Fed. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Thursday, July 16 

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, July (GS 15.0, consensus 13.0, last 10.3)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 10 (GS 220k, consensus 217k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 3 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,814k)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, June (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); Retail sales ex-auto, June (GS -0.1%, consensus flat, last +0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Core retail sales, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.4% in June (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a continued solid signal from alternative data. We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.1%, reflecting lower gasoline prices.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, June (GS -0.5%, consensus flat, last +3.8%)
• 12:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak in a conversation at the Houston branch of the Dallas Fed. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 6, Logan said, "I am increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability and appropriately balance both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. However, these decisions call for thorough analysis and debate."
• 01:25 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Forum. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On June 4, Schmid said, "The big question now is do we stay patient? Our inflation numbers have probably crept up into the three and a half percent range, which nobody likes. Is it temporary...or do we act? Do we say, okay, now it’s time to raise rates a quarter or two and see if we can’t tamp this thing down?"
• 07:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Speech text and Q&A are expected. 

Friday, July 17 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, June (consensus -0.6%, last +1.9%); Export price index, June (consensus -0.4%, last +1.3%)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, June (GS +12.5%, consensus +11.5%, last -15.4%)' Building permits, June (consensus -0.7%, last -0.9%) 
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); Manufacturing production, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last flat);Capacity utilization, June (GS 76.2%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.2%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.2% in June, reflecting strong auto and electricity production but weak natural gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.2%.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July preliminary (GS 51.5, consensus 51.0, last 49.5); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July preliminary (GS 3.3%, consensus 3.3%, last 3.3%)

Source: DB; Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 09:47

With Graham Dead, Races Are On For Both Temporary And Permanent Senate Successors

While plenty of jaws are still agape following Saturday night's shockingly sudden death of Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, scheming over his vacant seat is already well underway. With Graham having been a chief champion of the West's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, and a zealous collaborator with Israel in promoting American warfare against Iran, it's not just South Carolinians who are concerned about their representation in Washington.  

There are two separate tracks in this succession drama. First, under South Carolina law, Republican South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster must appoint someone to represent the state for the balance of Graham's fifth term, which runs through January 3.

As you watch the scramble for U.S. Senate in South Carolina...

Lindsey Graham was sworn on January 3, 2003, succeeding Strom Thurmond.

Thurmond took that seat on November 7, 1956.

That's only two Senators in nearly 70 years.

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) July 13, 2026

Separately, South Carolina Republicans must choose a new nominee for November's general election. Candidates can officially file starting July 21, with the window shutting on July 28. Then, a special primary election will be held on Tuesday, Aug. 11. If no candidate scores not just a plurality but a majority of the votes, the top two vote-getters would advance to a runoff election on Aug. 25. Before Graham's death, the Cook Political Report rated the Palmetto State "safe" for continued GOP control. It's doubtful that status will change no matter whom Republicans pick to go up against Democrat pediatrician Annie Andrews in November. In his 2020 re-election, Graham coasted to a 10-point win over his Democratic opponent.   

McMaster doesn't have a firm deadline for naming a temporary replacement, but choosing someone quickly gives him a potent opportunity to give someone a leg up in the primary race for the term that starts in January. As an alternative, he could go in the opposite direction and appoint a "caretaker" who has no ambition to hold the seat after the end of the year. McMaster, who is term-limited and will stop being governor in January, could conceivably appoint himself the interim senator, which would have Lt Gov Pamela Evette ascend to the governor's desk.  

With Graham's body still cooling, the man he trounced in the June primary -- businessman Mark Lynch -- wasted no time in announcing he will be a candidate in the special primary. On Sunday evening, Lynch committed $5 million to "finish the race we started." Amusingly, earlier in the day, Lynch had said, "today is not a day for politics." 

President Trump, whose endorsement is still powerful within the GOP despite his own crumbling popularity, declined on Sunday to tell NBC News whom he prefers for the seat. “I have somebody that I think would be great, but I don’t want to say it now because it’s just, you know, it’s too soon with Lindsey," Trump said. "I don’t want to even talk about anybody, but I do have somebody that I think is really good.”

“Just when I thought I was out… they pull me back in…” pic.twitter.com/1AzRMPAEuc

— Nancy Mace (@NancyMace) July 12, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky are certainly among those most sorry to learn that Graham suddenly died. Graham was easily one of the most hawkish figures in Washington, and was constantly working with both foreign leaders to help keep US money and weapons flowing in their direction. In that light, they may have hoped that former South Carolina governor and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley would pursue the seat. However, a spokesman told Politico's Alec Hernandez that Haley "has no plans to run for office at this time."

Other potential opponents for Lynch include: 

• Rep. Nancy Mace. She's poised to hand over her House seat in January, having foregone reelection for a failed bid for governor this year. She is actively considering a run for Graham's seat, according to Politico and The New York Times. Their reporting is reinforced by Mace's posting of a clip from Godfather III, in which Michael Corleone says the classic line, "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in."

• Rep. Russell Fry. The 41-year-old Trump ally currently represents South Carolina's solidly-Republican 7th Congressional District. In un-Lindsey Graham fashion, Fry was one of a few dozen Republicans who voted in 2023 to direct President Biden to pull troops out of Syria within 180 days.  

• Rep. Ralph Norman. At 73 years old, the hard-right Norman is two years older than the dead Graham and would test America's growing fatigue with Congress being a gerontocracy. Norman reportedly called Trump on Sunday to discuss a potential endorsement. Trump was said to have replied, "Give me a week." Norman's expected to make some kind of announcement about his intentions on Tuesday, and South Carolina outlet FITS News says he's running. 

• Rep. Joe Wilson. Famed for yelling "you lie!" at President Obama during an address to Congress in 2009, Wilson's name has been circulating. However, on Sunday night he signaled that he wouldn't be running. "I was grateful to speak with President Trump today reminiscing about our mutual friend, Senator Lindsey Graham," Wilson tweeted. "I assured him my goal is to remain in the House to keep his two-vote majority for the American people!!!" 

• Lt Gov Pamela Evette. She tried for the governor nomination this year, but lost to Alan Wilson, son of firebrand Rep. Joe Wilson. In an odd move, Trump endorsed both of them for the GOP nomination. 

There could be a crowded field, which would elevate the chances that a runoff would be needed. Within about 30 hours of each other, America saw two Grahams exit their Senate races in a bad way -- Lindsey Graham via heart failure, and Maine Democratic hopeful Graham Platner via being on the wrong end of a sex-assault accusation. Between the South Carolina special primary election and Maine Democrats picking a new candidate at a rushed convention this month, the entertainment is stacking up for political junkies in the dog days of summer 2026. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 09:35

Saudi Jets Bomb Sanaa International Airport To Stop Iranian Passenger Plane From Landing

Renewed conflict continues to be potentially breaking out over Yemen, as on Monday Saudi Arabia struck the runway of the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport, amid growing allegations that Iranian flights have increasingly made use of Yemen's airspace.

The Saud-backed Yemeni government which has long been locked in a civil war for the country's future has singled out the Houthi rebels for hosting Iranian flights, warning that its "patience has run out" and that it will respond to any airspace violations.

Illustrative prior image of an Iranian passenger plane operating at Sanaa airport, after over the years direct flights from Tehran have taken place over Saudi objections. via AP

"The Yemeni legitimate government, in cooperation with the regional and international community, and by all diplomatic and legal means, has tried to convince the Iranian regime and the Houthi coup militias in Sana'a to return to the armed forces and not to penetrate the Yemeni airspace with the Iranian planes," an official statement said.

Residents of the Houthi-controlled capital of Sanaa have reported seeing warplanes flying overhead, after Houthi-affiliated Al-Masirah channel indicated the strikes targeted the airport’s landing and takeoff runways.

"In an unjust aggression, the Saudi enemy carried out several airstrikes against Sanaa International Airport," Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree responded. "The Saudi aggression against Sanaa airport has ended the phase of de-escalation, and it must bear the consequences of its aggression," he added.

Another senior Houthi official, Hazem al-Assad, also threatened in follow-up remarks: "The Saudi regime will discover that it has dug its own grave."

The Iranian plane in question reportedly hasn't been hit or damaged, and was safely diverted to Yemen's Hodeidah International Airport.

The "internationally recognized" Yemeni government has long been propped up by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, after a lengthy half-decade long UAE/Saudi/US coalition air war failed to dislodge Houthi power. The pro-Saudi government operates out of Aden in southern Yemen, after the country's president fled there a decade ago.

Earlier this month there was another attempted Saudi warplane intercept of an Iranian civilian airliner, which was reportedly carrying Yemenis who had been stranded in Iran back to their home country.

The Houthis at the time of the prior incident said it was "breaking the Saudi-American siege on our people and expelling the occupiers."

As we featured previously, since 2015 Saudi Arabia has imposed a blockade on Yemen's land, sea, and air ports, severely restricting vital commercial and humanitarian imports, including fuel and food.

An Iranian Mahan Air plane landed in Houthi-controlled Hodeidah, marking a further escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis.

Iran and its allies hailed the landing as a symbolic victory over the Saudi-led blockade. pic.twitter.com/YSjcGMd4s2

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 13, 2026

The blockade triggered what the UN called one of the most severe humanitarian crises globally, leading millions towards famine and drastically damaging healthcare and water systems.

The Houthis continue to be an important side-player related to the US-Iran war, given they've continually threatened to block the key Bab el Mandab Strait and return the war to the Red Sea region.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 08:55

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• War Leaves Economy With More Stubborn Inflation, In latest Journal survey, economists have lowered the probability of recession but see inflation staying higher longer. The Iran conflict is embedding higher costs into the economy in ways that won’t reverse when the fighting stops. Economists are raising their inflation forecasts for 2027 and beyond. (Wall Street Journal)

• Oh, the Stories the Dow Can Tell. Lessons From the Index’s Past 50 Years. Only two names from the Dow Jones Industrial Average of July 1976 remain today. Many of today’s tech Blue Chips didn’t even exist then. (Barron’s)

• All you never wanted to know about corporate bond market issuance: How the debt capital markets sausage gets made. FT Alphaville’s deep dive into the plumbing of corporate bond markets—the mechanics, the distortions, and the risks hiding in plain sight. (FT)

• The Economics of Friendship: Why does loneliness seem to be on the rise? In part because we’ve made life frictionless and efficient. The Wall Street Journal opinion page goes long on something economists rarely study — the measurable economic value of having close friends. Social capital isn’t a metaphor; it shows up in earnings, health outcomes, and longevity data. (Wall Street Journal)

• Publishers Are Preparing to Opt Out of Google Search: After years of giving away content for free traffic, major publishers are seriously considering pulling the plug on Google indexing entirely. The economics of search have finally broken. (Adweek)

• The first American autonomous ground vehicles are fighting in Ukraine: Forterra, a U.S. builder of autonomous vehicles, revealed today that more than 100 of its self-driving ATVs have been deployed in conflict zones in Ukraine for the past nine months, in what the company believes is the largest deployment of autonomous ground vehicles in combat by any U.S. defense tech company. (Techcrunch) see also Ukraine’s Killer Robots Show How War Is Changing: Autonomous weapons are no longer theoretical. Ukraine’s battlefield is the live proving ground for AI-driven combat systems that will define the next generation of warfare. (The Conversation)

• China, Russia and Others Seek to Inflame Debate Over A.I. Data Centers: State actors in China, Russia and Iran have sought to exploit the U.S. public debate over the effects of the technology.  We have seen bad overseas actors use social media to influence elections, debate of Israel, Ukraine, and now AI. America needs to wake up and recognize this credible security threat to our sovereignty and democracy. Foreign adversaries are exploiting local opposition to AI data center construction — amplifying environmental and energy concerns to slow down America’s AI infrastructure buildout. (New York Times)

• How Physicists Track and Trap the Elusive Neutrino: The hunt for these ghostly particles has required some of the most audacious experimental setups ever built. In the 1960s, Raymond Davis Jr. and colleagues at Brookhaven National Laboratory placed a tank 1.5 kilometers underground in the Homestake mine in South Dakota and filled it with nearly 400,000 liters of a chlorine-based cleaning fluid called perchloroethylene. On the rare occasion that a passing neutrino struck a chlorine nucleus, it would be transformed into a radioactive form of argon that could be detected and counted. The experiment, which would run for 25 years, found just one-third the number of neutrinos coming from the sun that had been predicted in theoretical models. (Quanta Magazine)

• The U.S. men played ‘scared.’ Fox’s Carli Lloyd was fearless in her candor.: The USMNT’s World Cup performance was underwhelming: “I felt like they lost the game before they even stepped out on the pitch,” said Lloyd, the Fox Sports analyst on the post-match show. “And I’m not sure why, and I don’t know the reasons. But just from the beginning: chasing. Tentative. Scared. Just not confident on the ball.”   (The Athletic)

• Robert De Niro Only Wants to Shoot in New York: The actor and his partners recently opened Wildflower Studios, a 775,000-square-foot production facility in Queens. The NYT real estate section catches up with De Niro’s long love affair with the city and his insistence on keeping production local. A profile that’s half cinema, half urbanism. (New York Times)

Video of the day: How America Turned The Dollar Into A Weapon

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty. We discuss how he transformed the family boat insurance business into a “sexy” driver-forward business. We also discuss our love of collectable cars and his love of his first car, a Porsche, that he bought at the age of 13.

 

America’s missing middle: The shrinking 45-64 population

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Nuclear Fuel Leader Centrus 'At A Discount' As Structural Uranium Enrichment Deficit Looms; Needham

Needham analyst Carter Goman published a report on Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU), reaffirming a Buy rating while cutting the price target to $264 from $314. 

Recently trading around $171, the shares have lagged the broader markets year-to-date, presenting what Goman views as an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to the domestic enrichment leader.

Goman attributes the underperformance primarily to a “focus on capital expenditures for the planned Piketon capacity and normalized economics relative to established enrichment competitors Urenco and Orano, in addition to skepticism around timelines for new nuclear
build”. 

He leaves the core financial estimates largely unchanged but adjusts the target to reflect a mark-to-market on the cost of capital for the first-of-a-kind (FOAK) Piketon project.

The bullish investment thesis is underscored by Centrus' strategic positioning. As the only US-domiciled enricher, and the sole Western producer with demonstrated high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) capability, Centrus is poised to anchor the rebuilding of America's nuclear fuel cycle. 

Russian supply is phasing out under the 2024 Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, LEU markets are tightening, and HALEU demand from small modular and advanced reactors is set to ramp. With a credible path to at least 3.5 million separative work units (SWU) of capacity, the company is transitioning from a trading-exposed LEU broker into a vertically integrated, high-margin strategic asset.

Goman emphasizes a $3.9 billion backlog as of 1Q26, extending out to 2040 and offering long-dated visibility. The LEU segment accounts for the bulk ($3.1 billion), including $2.4 billion in previously contingent commercial commitments from South Korea tied to future Piketon production that are now 100% under definitive agreements. 

The Technical Solutions segment backlog contributes another $800 million. 

Federal support provides a critical foundation. Earlier this year, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced a $900 million task order to American Centrifuge Operating (a Centrus wholly-owned subsidiary) under the HALEU Production Contract. The company finally signed the contract earlier this month, with the award value surpassing $1 billion.

Goman notes that Centrus likely has access to “access to multiple potential sources of no / low-cost capital”, including possible National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) involvement, foreign direct investment, and third-party funding.

On the cost side, FOAK economics at Piketon will inevitably exceed Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) benchmarks at mature foreign facilities. However, Goman points out initiatives like the Palantir partnership announced in 1Q26 have already identified approximately $300 million in potential savings through AI-driven optimization of project controls, manufacturing, and supply chain.

Goman's report also provides some context for the global enrichment market. Global SWU demand hovers around 54 million annually, with supply highly concentrated among a handful of state-influenced players: 

• TENEX (Russia) 43% share
• Urenco (Germany, UK, Netherlands) 29%
• Orano (France) 12%
• CNEIC (China) 15%

In the US, annual consumption is roughly 15 million SWU, but domestic production has been limited with only 4.3 million SWU from Urenco's New Mexico plant. The remainder relied on imports, with Russia previously supplying a sizable chunk before the import ban.

Goman outlines a structural deficit emerging as Russian volumes exit and demand grows. The Nuclear Energy Institute has flagged ~8.1 GW of potential incremental generation from uprates, restarts, and extensions. Government-backed plans for 10 new Westinghouse reactors could add substantial initial and ongoing SWU needs.

When combined with the Russian ban, this creates a meaningful "call" on domestic capacity exceeding 6.5 million SWU annually before advanced reactor and national-security demand. Spot SWU prices have surged above $200, reflecting limited uncommitted global supply and long lead times (5-10 years) for new capacity. Goman expects pricing to remain structurally elevated, supporting both legacy trading margins and future enrichment returns.

Urenco is expanding its U.S. footprint (targeting over 7 million SWU eventually), and Orano has their NRC review underway for a new facility. Centrus' AC100 centrifuge technology, NRC license through 2037, and existing Piketon site advantages provide a meaningful moat, especially for national-security applications where US-origin tech is mandated. HALEU represents additional upside as the majority of the reactors under the various DOE programs require it.

Goman's valuation framework assumes: 

• 3.5 million SWU initial facility (with ~25% HALEU mix over time)
• ~$7 billion cumulative CapEx
• $250/SWU long-term pricing
• 50% enrichment margins
• 10% discount rate
• 15x terminal multiple on FY35 EBITDA

Upside could come from accelerated federal support, manufacturing efficiencies at the Oak Ridge center, higher SWU prices, or faster HALEU commercialization. Downside risks include FOAK execution/cost overruns, funding delays, TENEX supply volatility through 2027, and potential equity dilution.
 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:45

Britain Bets On Hydropower To Boost Energy Security

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Britain has provisionally approved three major pumped storage hydropower projects in Scotland, the first of their kind in more than 40 years.

• Pumped storage facilities will act as large-scale energy storage systems, helping balance intermittent wind and solar generation.

• The projects are expected to improve energy security, reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and support the U.K.'s decarbonisation strategy.

After years of neglect, the United Kingdom has big plans for hydropower as part of broader plans for a green transition. The government is supporting the development of three large-scale hydro-storage projects as part of its plans to diversify the U.K. energy mix, support a green transition, and boost energy security.

Hydropower is one of the oldest and largest sources of renewable energy. It works by converting the energy of running water into electricity. Many hydropower projects rely on reservoirs created by dams to store large quantities of water and produce electricity as needed. Meanwhile, hydropower plants without reservoirs are typically called run-of-river power plants. In these types of facilities, production is controlled by the amount of water flowing past at any given time. Just four countries – China, Brazil, Canada, and the United States – produce roughly half of the world’s hydroelectricity.

The U.K. has been producing electricity from hydropower projects since the 1800s, and the energy source now contributes around 2 per cent of the country’s electricity generation. Two-thirds of hydropower-generated electricity is produced during the winter months. There are almost 1,700 hydropower schemes across the U.K. with an installed capacity of around 2 GW.

As part of plans for a green transition, the U.K. is expected to invest heavily in hydropower in the coming years. In October 2024, the U.K. government announced a new policy to promote investment in Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) as part of the country’s decarbonisation plans.

The global demand for energy storage has risen dramatically in recent years, as many countries shift to less stable renewable energy sources to produce low-carbon power. LDES, also known as pumped hydropower storage (PHS), is a type of hydroelectric energy storage. It works by using two reservoirs at different heights to generate power by moving water from one to the other (discharging) as it passes through a turbine. The water can also be pumped back up to the higher reservoir (recharging) during off-peak electricity hours for reuse during peak demand. The system effectively functions as a massive battery, storing power for release as required.

The U.K. government aims to diversify the country’s energy mix to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and help strengthen energy security. Having invested heavily in intermittent clean energy sources, such as wind and solar power generation, it is looking to other energy sources, including hydro and geothermal power, to fill the gap.

There are currently four PSH schemes in the U.K., all of which were funded publicly from the 1960s to the 1980s to store overnight nuclear generation. By 2025, 11 PSH were under development across the U.K., with an expected combined power storage capacity of more than 10 GW and 200 GWh, or 25 per cent of the country’s power demand, once completed. A study from Imperial College London suggests that just 4.5 GW of new PHS with 90 GWh of storage could save up to £690 million a year in energy system costs by 2050. 

Last month, the U.K. energy regulator provisionally greenlit the first major new hydropower projects in over four decades, as part of plans to reduce the U.K.’s dependence on energy imports, in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and severe disruptions to energy supply chains. Three new PHS power stations will be developed in Northern Scotland, using the region’s famous lochs to supply hydropower, pending final approval.

Statera Energy’s Loch Kemp project will use water from Loch Ness, while SSE’s Coire Glas project will rely on water from Loch Lochy, which is situated between Fort William and Inverness. Meanwhile, Gilkes Energy’s Earba project, expected to be the U.K.’s largest pumped storage hydro facility, will pump water from both Loch Leamhain and Loch Earba.

The three projects are expected to be completed by the early 2030s and will be the first PHS power projects since the Dinorwig hydropower plant was completed in north Wales in 1984. Dinorwig, also known colloquially as the “electric mountain”, can generate enough electricity to power nearly 2 million homes in a matter of seconds.

The U.K. Energy Minister, Michael Shanks, stated, “Forty years after the country’s last pumped storage facility, this government is getting Britain building again. The lesson from the conflict in Iran is clear: Britain cannot afford to remain at the mercy of volatile fossil fuel markets and leave families exposed to the next price shock.”

The new hydropower projects are expected to enhance the reliability of Britain’s renewable energy and help the country reduce dependence on fossil fuels once and for all. They will help reduce reliance on energy imports, support the government’s goals for a green transition, and enhance energy security through diversification. PHS projects also provide an alternative to lithium-ion battery storage, helping reduce imports of raw materials and batteries from China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 05:00

Ukraine Prime Minister's Shock Resignation Marks Start Of Broader Zelensky Cabinet Reshuffle

Ukrainian President Zelensky is undertaking a dramatic cabinet reshuffle, at a moment Kiev sees itself as having military momentum against Russia with its non-stop drone assaults on Russian energy sites.

The country's Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has confirmed Sunday her shock resignation, which has come as a major surprise to many lawmakers and unleashed speculation about what's behind it. She has held the office since July 2025, and helped spearhead major reconstruction funding deals with the United States and Europe.

US Treasury image

Svyrydenko announced on social media she was "proud to have had the honor of leading the government during one of the most difficult periods in Ukraine’s modern history."

She further described that she discussed "next steps" with Zelensky but without providing any details. "I remain ready to serve the Ukrainian state and carry out every task aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s position, defending our national interests and bringing a just peace closer," she said.

According to a backgrounder on Svyrydenko:

Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s former economy minister, was named prime minister in July 2025 at the age of 39 after playing a lead role in securing a mineral agreement between Ukraine and the U.S., seen as an important way of tying U.S. interests to Ukraine’s security.

...He also said he had offered Svyrydenko the opportunity to lead “a new, important area” in Ukraine’s relations with a key international partner.

One unnamed Ukrainian lawmaker conceded to national media that "It's a strange situation" given that "Cabinet resignations are generally a last resort."

The official continued, "They're usually something you would expect in the fall, when the political season begins, and people expect some political changes, since there are no elections."

"Maybe there are some extraordinary reasons for the reshuffle... It looks like a preemptive move," the person added, while expressing that lawmakers sees no obvious reason behind the prime minister's removal.

Zelensky in a statement suggested a broader government overhaul is underway. "Ukraine is changing its political strategy."

Refusing to have an election but has announced more shake ups than the election he has had.

— бенедикт//Benedikt (@BenediktSuarez) July 12, 2026

"The Cabinet of Ministers needs to be renewed," Zelensky said. "Each priority area of foreign policy will be assigned to a specific person with substantial experience who is capable of implementing what we agree on at the leaders’ level and what the Ukrainian people expect," he described further of an impending reshuffle. Who is next on the chopping block?

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 04:15

The Big Lie: France Urged To Embrace Robotics Over Immigration

Via Remix News,

French political figure Éric Zemmour is arguing that robotics represents the true economic future of France, offering a technological solution to labor shortages in factories and farms rather than relying on mass immigration.

“Robotics is the economic future of France. Robots will provide our factories and our farmers with the arms they are missing. France can choose technology rather than migratory submersion through work. For an eternal, powerful, and sovereign France in modernity: more robots, fewer immigrants,” wrote Zemmour on X.

Zemmour’s post directly references an interview conducted by French outlet Le Journal du Dimanche with Éric Marchiol, Renault’s director of industrial metaverse and quality.

In the interview, Marchiol detailed Renault’s development of Calvin, a new humanoid robot created in partnership with French company Wandercraft. Designed for industrial environments, Calvin is compact, capable of handling heavy loads of up to 40 kilograms (88 pounds), and adaptable to real factory conditions — such as navigating uneven packaging or small steps on assembly lines.

Renault already operates around 11,000 traditional industrial robots and 8,000 autonomous guided vehicles. The Calvin robot represents the next generation: more flexible, intelligent, and space-efficient than older fixed-arm systems. The company is testing it for repetitive, physically demanding tasks like tire handling on fast-moving production lines.

Marchiol emphasized that robotization is essential for competitiveness: “Without automation and without robotization, there is no more competitive industry.” He noted France currently has about 190 robots per 10,000 workers — significantly behind China at 380 and Germany.

The goal, he said, is to deploy these humanoid robots widely across Renault and its suppliers within the next four to five years, targeting difficult-to-fill, physically strenuous jobs.

Robots over mass immigration

As Remix News has extensively reported over the last years, automation, robotics, and now artificial intelligence are increasingly seen as the primary solution to labor shortages, and mass immigration may even hinder the development of these technologies. Western employers, instead of developing this groundbreaking technology to work in factories and agriculture, are often still relying on human labor promised to them by Western liberal leaders. Often, this human labor comes with enormous welfare and cultural assimilation costs.

Zemmour, like many others, is pointing to this automation drive as the real solution to labor shortages. He wrote that Renault’s initiative as proof that France can solve its industrial labor gaps through innovation instead of large-scale immigration.

Remix News has run a series entitled “the big immigration lie” detailing the shift in thinking on immigration, with the Asian countries serving as the main counter example to Europe’s present course of open borders. Instead of embracing cheap labor and millions of culturally alien immigrants, Asian countries like Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan have focused on their native populations and implementing harsh immigration restrictions.

These Asians countries now lead in many areas over Europe, including AI, robotics, renewable energies, electric cars, and automation technology in factories.

Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock and arguably one of the most powerful men on the planet, openly said last year that the countries with xenophobic immigration policies are going to have a higher standard of living, faster productivity growth, and will be better able to accommodate the social impact of artificial intelligence advances over the coming years.

“You know, we always used to think shrinking population is a cause for negative growth. But in my conversations with the leadership of these large developed countries that have xenophobic immigration policies, they don’t allow anybody to come in, shrinking unemployment, excuse me, shrinking demographics. These countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology. And if the promise, I didn’t say it’s going to happen, but as a promise of all that transforms productivity, which most of us think it will, we’ll be able to elevate the standard of living of countries and the standard of living of individuals even with shrinking populations,” said Fink.

“And so the paradigm of negative population growth is going to be changing. And the social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines is going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations,” he said.

When Fink talks about xenophobic countries, he is talking about countries like South Korea, China, and Japan, where robotics and AI are being used to deal with the demographic situation instead of mass immigration. 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 03:30

How Global Population Growth Is Slowing

According to UN calculations, the world's population will cross the 10-billion mark in 2061.

However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, by the end of the century, this number will have started to decline slightly, having reached a high around 10.3 billion in 2084. Leading up to this reversal, the growth of the global populace has actually been slowing down for decades, as seen in numbers by the UN Population Division. The organization celebrated World Population Day on Saturday.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While the above figures are according to the UN's medium scenario of moderate fertility, a case where global birth rates sink even more drastically would result in a reversal of population growth already around the early 2060s, at a high of just under 10 billion people on Earth.

This would result in a world population around 9 billion again by the end of the century.

Some academics believe that a global population decline at an even faster rate is possible. According to an widely cited article in medical journal The Lancet published in 2020, the world population is expected at 8.8 billion in 2100, comparable to the UN's low-fertility scenario. In case of rapid global development, the reseachers believe it could be as low as 6.3 billion by that time.

The number of people in the world exceeded 8 billion for the first time on November 15, 2022, according to UN calculations.

This was more than three times as many as in 1950. The rapid growth of the past was due to the gradual increase in life expectancy as a result of improvements in healthcare, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine. It was also the result of high and consistent birth rates in some countries, for example China and India.

At present, the country adding most people to the world population is still India, while African countries like the Central African Republic, Chad and Somalia have the highest birth rates.

By contrast, the list of countries with the fastest population decline is dominated by eastern and southeastern European states, which have to contend with high emigration figures due to the wage and development gap with western Europe as well as falling birth rates.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:45

NATO's Last Stand?

Authored by Matthew Andersson via AmericanThinker.com,

Critics may be misreading the recent NATO summit.  

It looks to them as if the U.S. is unilaterally siding with Europe against Russia.  

President Trump is smarter: he knows who has the winning hand, and his direct communications with his peers, Xi and Putin, are not always public. 

President Trump's earliest critical instincts toward the EU and NATO still hold. While the U.S. is currently extending them some diplomatic courtesy and limited support, Europe is ultimately surrounded on all sides by powers that make it irrelevant in global influence terms.  Europe has put itself into this predicament, due to its own domestic economic decline from bad policy choices.  It is using war as a way to revive its fortunes.  Its odds are long. 

The EU is surrounded economically by the U.S. to the west; by Russia and China to the east, by a vast Arctic territory to the north that it cannot control, and by India and a rising Middle East power, Israel, to the south. Europe has no strategic maneuvering room. It has limited prospects to reemerge as a serious power, and NATO is long past relevancy, and solvency.  

Since his first term, President Trump has been right about Russia, and NATO.  

Being “right” means understanding Russia’s long-term economic and trade importance, and appreciating its military prowess. Along with China and the U.S., it makes up the superpower triad. Being right also means he understands that the days are numbered for the EU and NATO, and that the world has changed without them.

After the Anchorage meeting with President Trump, President Putin invited his counterpart to Moscow: Trump's guarded reply was a reminder that productive relations may be welcome by both leaders, but each is also operating in and surrounded by a complex defense and foreign affairs tradition that doesn’t trust the other side.  Some have called this the “crucible of belief,” and past experience is hard to overcome. Change will happen slowly. 

Europe is part of that shared Eurasian landmass, and its security, but “Europe” is not a unified, single country.  Even within its own limited Western sphere, it has been a region constantly engaged in rivalry and war.  There was a period after Napoleon — roughly a hundred years — where relative peace was enjoyed.  But the 20th century has been just the opposite: a nearly unbroken chain of war — regional, revolutionary, world, and cold — and now, a new 21st century war is increasingly seen as inevitable.

There are many political, social, and institutional explanations, but economic decline is at the heart of why the EU is determined to provoke Russia (and why it is pleading before the U.S.).

If Germany, France and the U.K. were strongly led, however, with robust domestic industrial growth, controlled borders via immigration, and with less external energy dependence, if not facing domestic energy bankruptcy, such a conflict would not be necessary, or given any serious consideration. 

In recent history, one only has to review Angela Merkel’s disastrous “green energy” policy, deindustrialization, open borders, and the idling of German nuclear power, as a strong explanation.  She fell completely for naive progressive ideology which asserts that oil no longer matters.  

But for President Trump, the U.S. was going down the same path.

France and the U.K. are just as bad in their string of weak leaders, uncontrolled borders, domestic violence from cultures foreign to their own, and deindustrialization and outsourcing. It is little wonder that Europe’s “leaders” are now economically trapped, and are turning to war as a desperate form of economic recovery.

NATO’s putative head, Mark Rutte, was recently in the White House, pitching for war and U.S. financial backing, with slides and charts that looked more like a failed business recovery plan.  The old saying “be careful what you ask for” may be relevant, as NATO is functioning as a proxy for Western Europe, and looking to the U.S. as its pre-bankruptcy sponsor.  President Trump has seen this before.

There are obviously many other interests and players driving this strategy, but German-French-British decline may be the largest factor. Scandinavia is somewhat immune, especially Norway with its natural resources and capital, but it is susceptible to European political and policy contamination. 

Economic historian Walt Rostow, a White House national security advisor to U.S. presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, provided a powerful economic model that goes a long way to partly explain why Eurasia, and Europe, have always been unstable and in conflict.  His “The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto,” maps how countries grow in relative stages of maturity.

But it also predicts how countries will turn to war when those stages are challenged, interrupted, or allowed through poor leadership, or state interference, to stagnate or backslide. Europe has slid backwards from an advanced industrial and colonial power, to an effective open border welfare state, led by a weak political class with no plans, ideas, commitment, or national loyalties.

Russia’s Kremlin has recently announced that its Special Military Operation in Ukraine has been converted to formal war.  While predicting its development is problematic, Russia's power advantage is so overwhelming that NATO can only been seen as engaging in effective suicide.  Given Europe’s cultural tendency to existentialist gloom, perhaps it is understandable.

When war finally stops, as it must, it usually results in new borders, relationships, alliances, and deals being formed.  NATO and Europe seem to be counting on the chaos of war as a path out of their own weakness.

The U.S. may lend some technical military support to them as a simple matter of arms sales, but this may be their own self-inflicted, poisoned chalice. 

And in the end, the U.S., Russia, and China will simply resume their global dominance and power alliance. The EU will likely collapse or shrink; NATO will finally be decommissioned, and the old Atlantic Alliance will bypass Europe and align economically with Eurasia’s east and south — because that is where the power is.  

That is what the stages of growth predict.

The EU is also going to be further eclipsed commercially and militarily and by a rising Israel-dominated Middle East, because they know what they want, they have a plan, and they know how to fight.  European bureaucrats like Rutte, Macron, Merz, and von der Leyen do not, and face an interesting fate when they finally realize that this battle is likely their last political stand.

The citizens of Europe may be relieved. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/13/2026 - 02:00

Obamacare Premiums Likely To Rise In 2027, Analysts Say

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Affordable Care Act premiums rose sharply in 2026 and are likely to continue to do so in 2027, based on early rate change filings by some insurers.

A pedestrian walks past an insurance agency that offers Affordable Care Act plans, in Miami on Jan. 28, 2021. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Of the 77 insurers whose proposed rates are now publicly available, the median proposed premium increase is 14 percent, according to a July 8 report by health information group Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker.

The primary reason given for the proposed rate hikes is that the insured population under the Affordable Care Act - former President Barack Obama's health care law, known as Obamacare - is likely to be smaller and sicker than this year's.

Enrollment in the program dropped by about 3 million this year, and the report estimates that healthier people were more likely to withdraw from the program.

Some experts say that the fall-off in participation was driven by the fall-off of fraudulent enrollments or of participants who had been enrolled unknowingly.

This would be the fifth consecutive year of premium increases in the program. Last year's median proposed change was 18 percent. The final median change was 20 percent, according to the report.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Initial premium rates for 2027 were filed in mid-June and will be finalized by Aug. 12, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Peterson-KFF analysis was based on 77 plans across 17 jurisdictions.

Those were Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, and Washington. However, only partial data were available for Hawaii, Illinois, and Texas.

For 2026, 183 health plan issuers are participating in Obamacare, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Despite the expiration of the enhanced subsidies, the vast majority (87 percent) of 2026 Obamacare enrollees receive an advance premium tax credit, according to the Healthcare Financial Management Association.

The average enrollee who gets a federal subsidy receives a $650 credit, leaving a $96 monthly premium, according to data provided by KFF.

Subsidies are available to Americans with a household income of between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That equates to about $15,600 to $62,600 for an individual or about $32,200 to $128,600 for a family of four.

Current Obamacare enrollment is about 19.2 million - the highest for any year except 2025.

Georgetown University's Center on Health Insurance Reforms published a similar preliminary analysis of 2027 rates on June 18. That report forecasted an enrollment decline of 17 percent to 26 percent in the individual market.

The Georgetown report estimates rate hikes ranging from about 7 percent in Vermont to about 22 percent in Washington.

Final rates for Obamacare plans will be posted in October. Open enrollment begins on Nov. 1.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 22:10

Hedge Fund CIO: "We Haven't Yet Diffused AI Across The Economy To The Degree That It Can Be Useful"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“President Putin said, ‘I would love to meet Zelensky in Moscow.’ And I said, ‘I don't think...you know, I have to put myself in his position. I don’t know that he’d go to Moscow,” said Trump, seated next to Zelensky in the Oval Office, the two of them discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Maybe he would. Would you go to Moscow?” Trump asked Zelensky, putting him on the spot, cameras snapping away. “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” answered Zelensky, unable to suppress a smile. “That’s right,” said Trump. “It’s dangerous,” laughed Zelensky.

Human beings really are the best. We can adapt to the sickest crap. And if we really can’t stop ourselves from killing one another, may as well start joking about it. Iran’s Larijani joked that the IRGC could take Trump out with a micro-drone while sunbathing at Mar-a-Lago. Trump told Fox News that it’s been a long time since he’s been sunbathing, “Maybe I was around 7 or so. I’m not too big into it.”

It wasn’t long ago that the Iran war seemed like a big deal. It used to be that killing heads of state was taboo. And I can remember when people thought closing Hormuz would spark a global depression. Russia’s biggest industrialist, Andrey Melnichenko, warned of the potential for a horrifying outcome if Russia continues down its self-destructive path. I’m pretty sure he was hinting that Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon if backed into a corner.

I first saw a philosophical justification for a preemptive tactical nuke strike 2mths ago [here]. Apparently, now that humans have adapted to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, our thermonuclear nukes have become a bit of a joke, because no one would dare ever use one. The VIX index naturally declined to 15. Which mechanically forces volatility-controlled investment strategies to take more risk. Lifting equity prices. Lowering volatility. Inviting volatility sellers. Just like every other late market cycle. After a while it honestly gets kind of funny. 

Artificial Intelligence+

To break dependence on Western technology and drive a new era of growth, in 2024 Beijing explicitly categorized its industrial focus into:

1. Six Future Industries (long-term, frontier technologies) and
2. Six Emerging Pillar Industries (near-term economic drivers).

Then in Aug 2025, Beijing formalized an “Artificial Intelligence+” initiative, which treats AI as foundational, cross-cutting tech - like electricity or infrastructure - rather than a standalone sector. The initiative emphasizes deep AI integration across The Sixes. 

The Six Future Industries are frontier technologies that Beijing seeks to establish first-mover advantage and dictate global standards over 10yrs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established six broad overarching categories (Future Manufacturing, Information, Materials, Energy, Space, Health). These translate into six specific priorities: Embodied Artificial Intelligence, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Quantum Technology, Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion Energy, Biomanufacturing, and 6G Mobile Communications. 

The Six Emerging Pillar Industries are to drive immediate, massive economic output.

• Integrated Circuits: domestic semiconductor manufacturing to bypass US export controls.
• Low-Altitude Economy: drones, flying cars, and infrastructure to manage low-altitude airspace.
• Intelligent Robots: automation hardware for factories/logistics.
• Aviation and Aerospace: commercial spaceflight, satellite networks, domestic commercial aircraft.
• Energy Storage: advanced battery tech to support the grid.
• Biomedicine: advanced pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

Ten Basis Points:

“It’s going to be China or the US,” said the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech names, macro themes. “A European sovereign AI is a pipe dream – they think Mistral will be their LLM and they’ll build data centers? Really? How exactly?” he asked. “They need Nvidia. They need a tech stack that has emerged from American and Asian IP that combines to form these magical machines that you throw a model into.” To create intelligence. “And what happens to these nations that can’t afford tokens in the next few years? How do India and Brazil and all these second-tier companies even compete?”

“We’ve entered an era where the biggest of the big - Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Tesla, even JP Morgan - will be accessing tokens in ways that is going to catapult their businesses ahead of everybody else,” continued the CIO. “This sort of faux debate over cheap open-source AI versus expensive Anthropic is nonsense. There’s a shortage of intelligence - pure and simple – we’re below ten basis points of market penetration in this stuff across the global economy, why are people even having a debate over this?”

“Given all the component shortages and constraints, and the anti-AI populist backlash, we could see a horrific market crash along the way, but we haven’t yet diffused this technology across the economy to the degree that it can be useful,” he continued. My Tesla drives me everywhere. I’m a super user, virtually alone. But in 10 years, no one will drive. “We have zero AI in  regulated processes within banks, healthcare companies and insurance companies because the errors and hallucination are being ironed out.” But they will be. “This could be the last great bull market in technology. What could eclipse superintelligence?” 

Anecdote:

“As we know the two principal players and their mentor, I take their words and actions as a serious roadmap,” said the CIO. We were discussing Bessent’s speech at the Economic Club of New York [here] and Warsh’s press conference following his first FOMC meeting [here]. “Much like the Chinese Communist Party 5-year plans, we’re glimpsing the future for American economic policy. Having watched the Chinese game the global trading system to the point that it broke leads me to believe it should be reassembled in Scott’s vision for something more equitable,” continued the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech, macro themes.

“AI competition with China is also central to this strategy. It’s possible that like Reagan spending Gorbachev into the ground, we could cause the Chinese system to hit the wall.” Interesting.

“Beijing’s national data center strategy is to build massive scale in token factories.” CXMT is their national DRAM champion and is about to IPO. Its disclosures reveal deep inefficiencies. Beijing will inevitably subsidize its losses. “Chinese open-source models are all the rage on Twitter. They’re not as good for complex thinking but very good at specific tasks and sub agent work. Therefore, as these models sit on US tech stacks, no Chinese innovator is making money - AWS makes the money for producing the token,” he said.

“Having already sunk massive amounts into EV, Solar, and other areas, one day the Chinese may well hit a wall, especially given they have yet to tackle their property sector.” The chronic decline in Chinese property prices has caused a depression in domestic consumption.

“If Scott’s strategy works and allied nations realize it’s better to play along then not, the Chinese export markets could become smaller precisely when they need them most. At the same time Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Hong Kong do stuff we need so we could work more diplomatically with them as they are no longer the Asian Tigers of our youth,” he said.

“Let’s see how it plays out but it’s fascinating and why guys like us stay in the game.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:41

United States Retains Spot As World's Top Oil Producer

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The United States was the largest crude oil producer in the world in 2025, outputting a “record-high” 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a July 9 statement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

America’s output was far ahead of second-placed Russia, which produced 9.9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia came in third with 9.6 million bpd, with Canada in the fourth spot at 5 million bpd. The difference in oil output between the United States and other top producers widened last year, with Russian supplies mostly remaining unchanged year-over-year while Saudi Arabia saw a modest increase.

The 13.6 million bpd output breaks the previous U.S. and global production record of 13.2 million bpd set in 2024. The United States first overtook Russia as the top global oil producer in 2018 and has since retained the number one spot.

EIA attributed the consistently high oil production in the United States to “continued gains in drilling productivity and operational efficiency across key shale basins, which allow operators to extract more oil per well.”

Powered by shale development, the United States has become not only the top crude oil producer “but the largest producer of crude oil ever,” the agency said.

In addition to record-high production last year, exports have been climbing. In April, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit a record, with crude oil exports averaging 5.6 million bpd, 21 percent higher than the previous record from December 2023, the EIA said in a July 8 statement.

The exports of finished petroleum products, including jet fuel and motor gasoline, hit the highest level since December 2024.

The record-high exports in April 2026 came amid disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.–Iran war, a development that ended up boosting global demand for American energy. Brent crude oil futures had hit a peak of over $126 per barrel in April. Prices have since come down and ended Friday at around $76.

In its latest statement, EIA said the jump in oil production last year happened despite oil prices being lower, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price dropping from an average of $77 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025. WTI is a benchmark for crude oil produced in the United States.

Moreover, EIA predicts America’s crude oil production to be close to 13.7 million bpd this year and to rise to 14.2 million bpd in 2027.

Boosting Oil Production

The higher oil output follows multiple actions taken by the Trump administration aimed at boosting production.

In November 2025, the administration announced the approval of new oil drilling leases off the coasts of Alaska, Florida, and California.

In January this year, the administration initiated the first step to offering oil and gas drilling leases in California, with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management seeking information on potential lease areas to auction as early as next year.

In March, the Department of the Interior conducted an oil lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, the first since 2019.

This action came under criticism from the environmental group Sierra Club. Mike Scott, Sierra Club’s oil and gas campaign manager, in a March 18 statement, accused President Donald Trump of making oil corporation CEOs richer at the cost of the environment.

“The Western Arctic is not just any landscape—it’s one of the last true wild places in the country, home to rare and threatened wildlife and cultures that have subsisted on the land for thousands of years,” Scott said.

“Drilling in the Arctic won’t solve our energy crisis, but it will cause irreversible damage to these pristine landscapes. Big Oil has been champing at the bit to get its hands on these lands, and Trump is making their wishes come true.”

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum had said, post the lease sale in Alaska, that the sale underscored the reserve’s vital role in strengthening America’s energy security.

The reserve “was created to support our nation’s energy needs, and this successful sale demonstrates what’s possible when we align responsible development with that original purpose,” Burgum said. “Revenues from these leases will help bolster local communities, create good‑paying jobs, and ensure that Alaska continues to be a cornerstone of America’s domestic energy production.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice has decided to ditch the oil and gas leasing restrictions imposed by the prior administration in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Alaska and its industrial development and export authority had filed lawsuits challenging the restrictions.

On July 7, the department said that these restrictions violated federal law and asked the court to dismiss the lawsuits.

U.S. acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that the prior administration’s actions “improperly limited” Alaska’s energy potential through “unreasonable” regulations. “This settlement supports the Trump administration’s commitment to secure American energy independence and our national security for generations to come.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 21:00

These Are The States Driving America's Economic Growth

The U.S. economy grew 2.1% in real terms in 2025, but that national figure tells only part of the story. While every state economy expanded, some grew nearly ten times faster than others.

Using the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this map, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, compares real GDP growth across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

The Sun Belt Ascendant

No states grew more in 2025 than Florida and South Carolina, which both expanded by 3.1%. Their strong growth rates reflect the continued economic momentum of the American South and the broader Sun Belt.

Arkansas (2.2%), North Carolina (2.7%), and Texas (2.5%) also performed better than the national average.

This data table ranks U.S. states based on their 2025 real GDP growth, measuring the change in overall economic output after adjusting for inflation.

 

Both the Southeast and Southwest regions grew by an average of 2.3% in 2025. Increasingly, these Sun Belt regions have benefited from favorable corporate tax regimes and lower costs of living relative to more traditional growth hubs such as the Northeast and Far West.

 

Population growth has also become an important driver of the region’s economic expansion. Lower housing costs in many markets, business-friendly tax policies, and continued migration from other parts of the country have supported stronger demand, investment, and job creation across much of the Sun Belt. Two-thirds of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are southern Sun Belt cities, often in Florida or Texas.

The Continued Strength of California and New York

However, strong growth was not limited to the South. California, the nation’s largest state economy, saw growth of 2.5%.

Despite record domestic migration outflows, the Golden State remains a major economic force with sustained, above-average growth. Similarly, New York registered 2.9% growth in real GDP in 2025, third-highest in the country.

Growth within these traditional heavyweights was powered by robust private investment and strong years for sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, and professional services.

The Slowest Growth in the Nation

Nationwide, the slowest growth was registered in North Dakota (0.3%), followed by West Virginia and Wyoming at 0.5% each. No state’s GDP contracted in 2025, while Washington, D.C. saw just 0.4% annual growth.

At the regional level, the Plains (1.4%) and Great Lakes (1.7%) regions lagged the rest of the country. These regions were particularly hurt by downturns in agriculture and a manufacturing slump, both of which were impacted by trade disruptions.

Meanwhile, a record-long government shutdown in late 2025 also affected many local communities dependent on federal agricultural financing.

Wondering how these state-level growth patterns fit into the national picture? Check out OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast Over Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:25

Oil Jumps, Futures Drop On Fresh Iran Strikes, Hormuz Confusion

Oil jumped and US equity futures fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, while conflicting claims over the status of the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty.

S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% in early trading Monday after the cash index closed 0.4% higher on Friday.

WTI crude climbed 3% at the open, trading around $74, while the dollar rose against most major peers. 

Risk crept in after the US military launched several rounds of strikes in recent days, culminating with the latest barrage around 5pmET on Sunday aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said. The latest action followed Iranian drone and missile attacks on US allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar in response to earlier US strikes. 

At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 12, 2026

Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz only added to the uncertainty, after Iran said it had closed the waterway while the US military and maritime authorities said shipping continued through its southern route. According to Axios, a US official said "around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination."

“The latest developments over the weekend suggest markets may face a volatile start to trading which could test the glass half full mentality we have seen recently,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

Besides a return to hostilities, investors are also bracing for a pivotal earnings season, with results from JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman and Wells all due Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% jump in second-quarter profits, though the benchmark’s rally has become increasingly reliant on gains outside the technology megacaps that have driven markets in recent years.

In Europe, Deutsche Bank expects Stoxx 600 firms to report a 12% jump in second-quarter earnings, following a 7% rise in the first quarter. Profits for MSCI Asia Pacific constituents are estimated to rise 39%, up from 6.9% in the previous three months, largely driven by chip-exporting powerhouses such as Korea and Japan. 

The outlook is being tested by persistent inflation, higher energy prices and growing expectations the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates, threatening corporate margins. Just last week, several Fed officials warned that surging memory prices are rising core inflation, with Goldman calculating that the impact on core PCE by year-end will be +0.5% due to surging chip costs.

With US and global equities trading near record highs and valuations elevated, investors see little room for disappointing results.

Investors will also keep a close eye on this week's US CPI data, after oil’s biggest weekly gain since mid-May revived concerns that higher energy costs could further complicate the disinflation story. Consumer and producer price reports - the last inflation readings before the Fed meets later this month - will offer fresh clues on the path of interest rates.

Traders have ramped up bets on further tightening, with swaps pricing almost 40 basis points of Fed hikes by December, up from about 15 basis points in early June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both headline and core inflation to have eased slightly in June, though both are forecast to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.  

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also make his first congressional appearance since taking the helm after pledging to scale back forward guidance on the rate outlook.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 20:20

US Men's World Cup Team Required To Split $12.8M Payout With Women's Team

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

America’s fleeting interest in soccer may once again have abated following a humiliating World Cup defeat to Belgium last Monday, in a game that saw President Donald Trump become personally involved over a red-card dispute.

But the high-profile flop in the first elimination round was not the only indignity that the U.S. athletes must endure.

A collective bargaining agreement means that the team will have to share its $16 million prize pot (minus a 20% cut for the U.S. Men’s Soccer organization) with the U.S. women’s team.

“The remaining 80 percent is split evenly between the men’s and women’s player pools, meaning each team is set to receive $6.4 million from the USMNT’s run,” the New York Post reported.

That puts the estimated takeaway for each player on the two teams’ 26-man -person rosters at $246,153. However, since there is no finalized roster for the women’s team, which will vie for its fifth World Cup championship next year in Brazil, those payouts will remain in escrow for now.

The women’s success in the quadrennial tournament gave them extra leverage to demand the pay gap be closed after their 2019 championship title. By contrast, the men’s team has never won the tournament and last made it to the round of 16 in 2002.

But the men’s matches historically have drawn greater viewership. The loss to Belgium saw a U.S. television audience exceeding 45 million viewers, while the highest-rated women’s game, the 2015 World Cup final, saw the audience peak at just 26.7 million.

For winning the entire tournament in 2019, the women’s team received a total of $4 million from the $30 million overall that the league took in.

Despite the attempt at pay parity, critics such as The Spectator’s Melissa Chen noted that the agreement flies in the face of one of capitalism’s central tenets — the importance of market value.

The US men's national soccer team is being subjected to the same kind of legalized plunder that defines too many divorce proceedings in this country.

After grinding through qualifiers, earning their spot in the World Cup, and generating the massive FIFA payout that only the… https://t.co/ZnSJjDHcbD

— Melissa Chen (@MsMelChen) July 9, 2026

“It disincentivizes excellence on the men’s side (why push harder if your windfall gets redistributed?) and removes pressure on the women’s side to grow their own commercial appeal,” Chen wrote. “Like divorce settlements that trap high-earners in perpetual support roles, this policy treats men’s soccer as a piggy bank for ‘fairness,’ not a business rewarding what fans and sponsors actually value."

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/12/2026 - 19:50