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MbS Begs Trump For Bigger Anti-Houthi Intervention, As Over 100 US Advisers On Ground

Zero Hedge -

MbS Begs Trump For Bigger Anti-Houthi Intervention, As Over 100 US Advisers On Ground

We've been documenting the Houthi rapid advance along Yemen's western coast, as the Iran-aligned rebel group closes in on owning more vital Red Sea chokepoint coastal real estate.

As of Friday, after having the day prior entered the strategic port of Mocha, it is being widely reported including in Al Jazeera that the Houthis have taken control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline. This gives the group, and by extension Tehran, immensely greater leverage over the Bab al-Mandab Strait and vital global energy chokepoint.

Earlier this week Ansar Allah attacked four Saudi cities, including Aramco sites across southern KSA.

The Saudis are said to be in a panic as the front lines of the Sanaa-based government they've long backed and weaponized collapse. In some cases Saudi coalition fighters are simply abandoning their armored vehicles and convoys.

Seeking more Washington support from the air and on the ground, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has already made two urgent phone calls to President Trump.

Axios is reporting that in the Thursday calls MbS urged his American counterpart to launch strikes against the Houthis before they solidify control of the vital Red Sea chokepoint.

The report indicates that "Trump declined, and US officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now."

But also, "Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, traveled to Saudi Arabia on Thursday for urgent coordination meetings, two sources with knowledge of the matter said." So the Iran war is has now officially gone regional.

Of course, Washington and Riyadh been through all of this before but to no effect, given the brutal air war and intermittent ground campaign of the Saudi-UAE-US coalition in Yemen from 2015 to 2022. In more recent years amid the Gaza conflict, major US Navy actions in the Red Sea did nothing to push back the Houthi threat. Repeat Israeli bombings have also done little.

But the Pentagon is still intervening in what can be called a long-running proxy war in southern Arabia, as CNN reported Thursday that over 100 US military advisers are on the ground in Saudi Arabia assisting Riyadh with intelligence and targeting support.

One unnamed official even put the number at more around 200, as part of a new Yemen-focused task force amid the ongoing escalation. A huge worry remains the safety of Hormuz crude transit 'bypass' routes.

New Houthi military announcement via Telegram:

Yemen’s armed forces say maritime navigation is safe for all companies except Saudi vessels, which are subject to a blockade, and vow to continue striking Saudi troop buildups and escalating until the aggression and blockade on Yemen end.

The big news overnight was a report that Ansar Allah claimed to have hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which feeds an export terminal on the Red Sea and effectively bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint. 

The Gulf crisis shows no signs of slowing as US forces took out several Iranian tankers this week and Tehran warns of further escalation. But Trump doesn't appear to be any closer to articulating, much less seriously contemplating, an offramp to this war of his own making - which is also becoming increasingly unpopular at home.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 09:35

UK Prime Minister Burnham Rejects Calls For National Data-Center Moratorium

Zero Hedge -

UK Prime Minister Burnham Rejects Calls For National Data-Center Moratorium

Authored by Matthew Gooding via Data Centre Dynamics,

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has ruled out a national moratorium on data centers.

Speaking in the UK parliament on Wednesday, Burnham said the government's AI Growth Zone scheme would help ensure communities hosting new data centers would feel the economic benefits of developments.

Responding to a question from Labour MP Ian Lavery, who said three "vast" AI data centers are currently under construction in his constituency, Blyth and Ashington in north-east England, Burnham said: "At this point, I won't go as far as a moratorium."

He added that data centers "can be the magnet that clusters in other investment over time," and said AI Growth Zones would help boost tax revenues for communities with data centers.

Burnham plans to devolve more power to local mayors, including allowing them to spend a greater proportion of tax raised in their areas on local projects.

Under Burnham's predecessor, Keir Starmer, the UK government championed data centers as a vehicle for economic growth.

It set up AI Growth Zones as a way to attract digital infrastructure projects to specific areas, touting tax incentives and priority access to power.

Blyth and Ashington, Lavery's constituency, is home to major projects including a £10 billion ($13bn) plan to convert a former power station into a 720MW AI data center, which is being developed by Blackstone-owned QTS.

A lot has changed in the past year and a half, with Starmer out and the Department for Science, Innovation, and Technology (DSIT), which oversaw the launch of AI Growth Zones, closed and merged into the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade when Burnham took office this summer.

After a period of uncertainty about the future of the growth zone program, government officials confirmed to DCD that the team now reports to UK AI minister Kanishka Narayan. However, the architect of the scheme, Matt Clifford, has left his role in government to join AI lab Anthropic.

Burnham's backing of data centers contrasts with the stance of UK Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who has called for a national moratorium citing concerns over power and water usage.

In Scotland, lawmakers in the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Green Party have also backed a ban north of the border.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 09:20

Futures Rise As Oil Prices Drop Ahead Of CPI Report

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rise As Oil Prices Drop Ahead Of CPI Report

Futures are higher thanks to an overnight retreat in oil prices (which is unlikely to hold now that Houthi rebels effectively control the entire Red Sea) and bond yields which track oil tick for tick, but the tone could quickly shift with the week’s biggest catalyst, August CPI data, due before the cash open. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures gain 0.6% with Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher, led by AMZN (+0.6%) and META (+0.7%). In premarket trading, ORCL rose 7% as its AI cloud backlog beat estimates. MSFT is planning to more than triple its data center capacity to ease computing shortages. WTI crude fell 3% overnight amid the report that Gulf states are weighing a meeting with Iranian officials to discuss the future of the Strait, the first gathering since the war began more than six months ago. Oil is on track for a 8% jump since Monday, and the International Energy Agency warned higher prices would hit consumption. Bond yields are 1-3bp lower although they remain sticky near 3 year highs: 2Y and 10Y yields are 3.2bp and 2.4bp lower, respectively. While the meeting itself was net positive for risk assets, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, particularly regarding renewed developments in Yemen, as Houthi rebels seize a key Yemeni port city and struck Saudi oil infrastructure. US retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time. Commodities are mostly lower except for precious metals. All eyes are on CPI at 8:30 am ET. We also get the September preliminary UMich sentiment (10 a.m.), 2Q household change in net worth (12 p.m.) and August federal budget balance (2 p.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mostly higher (Nvidia +0.7%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +1.1%, Alphabet +0.5%, Tesla -0.2%, Microsoft +0.3%, Apple -0.06%)

  • Adobe (ADBE) falls 4% after the company gave an outlook for sales that narrowly missed analysts’ estimates, adding fuel to concerns that artificial intelligence upstarts are hurting the software maker’s business.
  • Copart (CPRT) rises 4% as the vehicle auction firm is set to acquire all outstanding shares of ACV Auctions for $10.50 per share in cash. ACV (ACVA) surges 44%.
  • Kroger (KR) slips 2% after the company trimmed its annual sales guidance, a sign that fierce competition for grocery spending is weighing on the retailer.
  • NuScale Power (SMR) falls 4% after UBS cut its recommendation on the small modular reactor company to sell, citing sees increased competition.
  • Oracle (ORCL) gains 6% after the software company’s results featured better-than-expected cloud revenue amid strong AI demand.

In other corporate news, OpenAI is considering slowing down the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence, with CEO Sam Altman hoping other AI companies will do the same. activist investor Oasis Capital has nominated directors at Vail Resorts in preparation for a proxy fight, Semafor reports. Tesla China launched the new Model Y Performance All-Wheel Drive version, with a starting price of 369,000 yuan ($54,975). In deals, online vehicle auctioneer Copart is making its largest-ever acquisition in the shape of ACV Auctions, a digital marketplace to buy and sell cars, for $1.9 billion in an all-cash transaction. Billionaire financiers Mark Walter and Todd Boehly are nearing a deal to sell their stakes in Chelsea FC to majority owner Clearlake Capital.

After surging yields and a rally in crude left the S&P 500 facing its worst week since June, index futures rebounded 0.5% as WTI crude fell 3% overnight amid the report that Gulf states are weighing a meeting with Iranian officials to discuss the future of the Strait. Oracle Corp. jumped 6% in early trading as its data center bets showed signs of paying off. 

The AI trade got renewed optimism in the form of Oracle and Microsoft overnight. Oracle’s cloud infrastructure revenue jumped +121% to $7.4 billion, beating estimates. Microsoft’s announcement of plans to more than triple data center capacity to 38 gigawatts by 2032 will give AI infrastructure bulls fresh ammunition. Second derivative improvements in Oracle’s slowing rate of change of free cash flow losses (-$5 billion versus the Street at around double the burn) on healthy operating cash flow (+184% to $23 billion) provides some relief. Meanwhile, Oracle’s ability to charge more for aging GPUs challenges fears that rapid obsolescence will erode hyperscaler returns.

There are some cracks in the AI narrative. Ramp AI highlights that AI spend declined in August among the top 1% of businesses investing in the technology. Adobe’s guidance miss resurrects questions about AI monetization for software incumbents. Anthropic’s monthly report describing misuses of its AI model shows it blocked possible efforts to build biological weapons

Traders are bracing for Friday’s inflation print at a time when worries over oil-driven price pressures have pushed global bond yields to the highest in years. Money markets price a 67% chance of a Fed hike next week.  Economists expect the consumer price index to have risen 0.4% in August, an acceleration from a month earlier, due in part to higher gasoline costs (our full preview is here). Bloomberg Economics expects to see firmer core PCE forecasts after the CPI print, raising the odds of a Fed rate hike next week, after the PPI components feeding into the PCE deflator came in well above expectations yesterday.

“We had the Oracle numbers as a reminder that there’s a tech story that’s still very, very vibrant,” said Guy Miller at Zurich Insurance. “That’s what investors keep coming back to. We know for at least the next two quarters that earnings are going to be really robust.”

August’s CPI report is probably the most anticipated in years, with Fed policymakers — particularly Waller — signaling that the decision at next week’s FOMC meeting hinges on evidence that inflation is moderating. Bloomberg Economics leans “slightly toward the Fed holding rates steady at the September meeting. But it will be a very close call.” That said, as Goldman trader Brian Bingham lays out, Warsh is facing a bit of a dilemma

“The Fed is now in the most paradoxical of all positions, beholden to a single data print and potentially reactive to the rounding on the ECO screen… Warsh told the market in his first press conference that he didn’t want to focus on the number to the right of the decimal point, but now it’s the number to the right of that one that will be the determinant. Waller’s speech on Thursday was surprisingly and overtly dovish, confirming our view that the Board skews heavily if not unanimously dovish relative to the regional presidents, but offered little new information beyond implicitly confirming a 30bp core CPI will merit a hike.  The market appears to be penciling the over/under at 25, but we struggle to see a meaningful rally on an in-line 20bp core print following this week’s jobs report; in a world where the meeting goes in pricing greater than 50% chance of a hike, the risk of the bond market interpreting a hold as a policy error seem far greater than the harm of hiking into above-target inflation.”

Elsewhere, BofA strategists note there’s no sign of “panic anywhere” despite the spike in bond yields and commodities. The pace of flows into global equities is slowing, with US stock funds registering their biggest three-week outflows since January at $14.2 billion. For the current bull market in stocks, the fear is a full-fledged hiking cycle, not a single move.

The Stoxx 600 is gaining 0.6% to staunch three days of losses. Banks, insurers and telecoms stocks are leading the way.Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

  • Trainline shares climb as much as 8.8% after the train ticket retailer reported strong results in its first-half trading update. The group reiterated its revenue forecast for the full year and announced a new buyback
  • C&C shares rise as much as 8.9%, the most since 2022, after the alcoholic beverage maker delivered in-line interim results and said it is buying Asahi UK’s wholesale businesses. Analysts said the deal should provide scale
  • Everplay Group shares soar as much as 14%, hitting their highest level since February, after a strong launch of the video game company’s latest title, Wardogs, according to analysts
  • Omnia shares jump as much as 14%, hitting their highest level since 2017, after the fertilizer and chemicals maker said it’s in advanced discussions regarding a potential offer for all of its issued ordinary shares
  • GEA Group shares rise as much as 1.8% as the German machinery firm is upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Barclays, which touts it as a high quality business with a compelling valuation
  • Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 3.3%, hitting a three-month low, after the obesity drug giant was downgraded at Morgan Stanley. Analysts believe its valuation does not reflect “subdued” mid-term growth prospects
  • FlatexDEGIRO shares fall as much as 11% after the German online brokerage announced that the chairman of its supervisory board had resigned
  • Applied Nutrition shares drop as much as 5% after the protein-powder maker’s chief executive and chief operating officer offloaded shares at a discount to the last close. The shares remain above the offer price
  • Chemometec declines as much as 11%, the most in three weeks, after the Danish laboratory equipment firm reported its latest earnings and announced its latest guidance

Markets in Asia echoed Thursday’s US moves. Asian stocks slumped as US bond yields climbed to their highest levels since 2023 and rising oil prices weighed on risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.9%, led by South Korea and Taiwan. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest decliners after DeepSeek said it managed to reduce the amount of high-bandwidth memory needed for its latest model, stoking worries about the outlook for semiconductor demand. A gauge of Asian chip stocks is poised for its biggest drop in three weeks.  Investors are looking ahead to Friday’s US consumer-price report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path, with rising bond yields and oil prices adding to market concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 0.7% this week, on track for its biggest weekly drop in almost two months. Attention is also turning to upcoming central bank decisions in the region. The Bank of Japan is due to announce its monetary policy decision on Sept. 18, while Taiwan’s central bank is scheduled to decide on rates next week.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains muted, with the New Zealand dollar the outperformer among major currencies as the rise in oil prices firmed up bets on rate hikes.

In rates, treasuries hold modest gains led by short tenors ahead of August CPI data at 8:30 am ET time as oil prices fall for the first day this week. Front-end yields are about 3bp lower on the day after tenors across the curve reached new YTD highs. US yields are at least 1bp richer across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 0.5bp and 1bp. 10-year is around 4.94%, less than 2bp richer on the day, trailing UK counterpart by 2bps. German yield curve leads global steepening move with front-end yields more than 5bp lower on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far and unlikely to grow because of risk posed by the CPI report; six offerings totaling $6.3 billion were priced Thursday, with borrowers paying about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.3 times oversubscribed

In commodities, oil prices are down more than 3% after the International Energy Agency warned about a deteriorating outlook for consumption. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.2% near session lows. Gold is rising, having come close to dipping below $4,300/oz. Diesel prices rose above $6 a gallon for the first time ever, raising the risk of further energy-driven inflation just ahead of peak demand season for the workhorse fuel of the global economy. Inflationary pressures showed up in corporate earnings with National Beverage saying results were hurt by higher packaging and ingredient costs.

The US economic data slate includes August CPI (8:30 a.m., September preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.), 2Q household change in net worth (12 p.m.) and August federal budget balance (2 p.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The lightning Houthi advance down Yemen's Red Sea coast this week came with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guards seeking to open a new front in Iran's war with the U.S., according to Yemeni government, Iranian and ‌regional sources. By seizing the southwestern port city of Mocha, the Houthis have strengthened their chokehold on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key waterway whose disruption further constricts global energy supplies after Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
  • Iran and GCC states are considering meeting next week for talks on the Strait of Hormuz, people familiar said. The Houthis advanced toward coastal areas near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Oil retreated. BBG
  • US average retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time, adding to price pressures ahead of peak demand season. BBG
  • Fund managers wading back into South Korean memory makers’ stocks got a fresh gut check after DeepSeek’s latest artificial intelligence model raised doubts on the strength of demand. SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. shares dipped 2.2% and 3.5% each in Asia, paring their nascent rebound from July’s steep selloff. DeepSeek’s comment that it has reduced the amount of high-bandwidth memory required in its AI models.
  • “Oracle’s GPU renewal pricing averaged 20% higher, highlighting the industry’s supply-demand imbalance and supporting Oracle’s and other cloud peers’ infrastructure outlook”. “The company’s commitment to keep fiscal 2027 funding needs unchanged also stands out despite a sequential $26 billion rise in remaining performance obligations to $664 billion”. BBG
  • Japan’s finance minister said Scott Bessent referring to himself as “the house” sounded “scary” when translated into Japanese. The US Treasury Secretary clarified his remark, saying he was trying to give the market “good framing so that they don’t panic.” BBG
  • Sanae Takaichi’s push for a more assertive military with US support will be tested as voters in Japan’s Okinawa pick a governor Sunday. Anger over US bases is overshadowed by worries about China. BBG
  • European Central Bank officials expect to raise interest rates further, with another increase possible as soon as next month. While policymakers’ views will continue to hinge on incoming economic data, tighter monetary policy may be required to contain inflation that’s stuck above 3%, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations. BBG
  •   Trump reiterated a pledge to provide a USD 5,000 Trump dividend to adults if Republicans win the Midterms and will make Trump tax cuts permanent, while he separately commented that the Trump dividend won't be a big problem at all and that he is doing it as a reward and not for the vote.
  • Trump said in a recorded interview with Fox News that they're going to take care of USD 40tln debt through growth, while he spoke with Johnson and Thune regarding USD 5,000 dividends.
  • Bessent said they have the best-performing bond market in the world and will get to the other side of the energy supply shock, while he added that the Treasury market is in very good shape and term premium is at the lowest differential in many years. Bessent stated regarding the Treasury buyback operation that they didn't buy back as many as he said, because they buy cheap.
  • Pentagon is in talks to get into AI infrastructure funding with a USD 5bln loan: WSJ.
  • Goldman expects a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.40% (vs. +2.4% consensus). GS expects a 0.39% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.4% consensus), reflecting higher energy prices. 
  • Net and gross hedge-fund leverage remains well below this year’s highs, according to our Prime Services desk, suggesting positioning remains relatively cautious. Goldman Prime Brokerage

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were pressured with global risk sentiment weighed by a further surge in oil prices and upside in yields, as the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East threatens shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while there were social media reports citing satellite images that suggested a potential strike by Houthis on Saudi's East-West pipeline. ASX 200 declined amid higher yields, with the Australian 3yr yield at its highest in over 15 years, while Citi revised its call and now sees two more rate hikes by the RBA this year. Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to higher oil prices and yields, while participants also brace for a widely expected BoJ rate hike next week. KOSPI was dragged lower amid tech-related pressure, with notable losses in the industry heavyweights. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad risk-off mood in the region, with underperformance seen in miners, while recent comments from PBoC Deputy Lu Lei that they will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely failed to provide inspiration, with today's OMO remaining at an inconsequential amount.

Top Asian News

  • The Japanese Trade delegation is reportedly preparing a China visit in September, according to Kyodo.
  • Fitch assigns Softbank (9984 JT) a "BB+" rating; outlook stable.

European bourses are modestly firmer this morning (STOXX 600 +0.4%), benefiting from falling energy prices and cooling yields. For the UK specifically, the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) is largely unreactive to a strong GDP reading for July. But ultimately it will have little impact on the BoE next week, which is expected to keep rates on hold. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks, Insurance and Telecoms form the top three; Tech, Basic Resources and Chemicals  underperform.

Top European News

  • The French Finance Minister said the government has lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), sees 2027 GDP at 1%, and that debt service costs are seen at EUR 65bln (EUR 4.5bln above original plans).
  • ECB’s Moulin said France is not in economic danger. The heatwaves cost the economy 0.1ppts of growth, and the economy will restart at a moderate pace.
  • BoE/Savanta Quarterly Attitude Survey (Aug): 1-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 4%), 2-year ahead 2.9% (prev. 3.5%), 5-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 3.9%).

FX

  • Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD this morning. NZD is the clear outperformer, as traders increased their bets of further hikes at the RBNZ, with markets now pricing in four hikes at the Bank. Elsewhere, the CHF lags a touch.
  • USD is steady and trades within a 99.00 to 99.17 range. Thursday saw the release of a mixed PPI report, which ultimately spurred little reaction in the USD. But the Dollar did strengthen in the prior session on account of higher yields. Focus today is solely on the CPI report, which will be a decisive factor into the Fed policy meeting next week. A benign report showing continued progress on underlying inflation would strengthen the case for the Fed to remain on hold, particularly given Waller's stated reaction function. Conversely, a hot report or evidence that disinflation is reversing would likely reinforce expectations for a 25bp hike.
  • EUR is flat this morning and holding within a 1.1595 to 1.1617 range, in the aftermath of the ECB policy decision on Thursday. Thereafter, ECB source reports suggested that officials expect more tightening this year, with the debate potentially as soon as October. As such, sell-side banks have broadly pulled forward their bets of another hike at the ECB; the likes of Citi, Barclays and UBS see another round of tightening in December. Interestingly, Danske Bank believes that the Bank will deliver two 25bps hikes, each in October and December.
  • JPY is slightly firmer this morning, with USD/JPY holding around 154.20, in a 153.96 to 154.61 range. Overnight, a Reuters source report reiterated that the BoJ will raise rates next week, and potentially signal its readiness to speed up hikes. The report, alongside some scaling back of the pressure seen in the prior session, has helped the Yen this morning. The next hurdle for the currency will be US CPI, where a hot report will likely see yield differentials widen once again.
  • GBP is currently flat, but did see some mild upside following a strong GDP report earlier. In July, the UK economy grew 0.4% (exp. 0.00%), largely thanks to a boost in AI. While the data signals economic resilience, it is unlikely to alter expectations for next Thursday’s BoE policy decision. It does, however, provide the MPC’s hawks with ammunition to argue for tighter policy.

Fixed Income

  • Global fixed income benchmarks have steadily climbed off earlier lows, as energy prices ease off best levels.
  • USTs (+1 tick) reside at the upper end of its 106-04+ to 106-14+ range, with the US CPI on the docket later today. Yields remain towards elevated levels (US 10yr 4.94%), and a hot inflation report today will likely give the 10-year enough of a reason to breach the 5.00% mark; a level not seen since Oct’23.
  • Bunds (-1 tick) pare some of Thursday's losses, with the 10yr yield holding around 3.50% in the aftermath of the ECB policy meeting and the surge in energy prices. To recap, the ECB meeting was largely as expected, with nothing to significantly shift market pricing as we await further data and energy developments. Thereafter, ECB source reports suggested that officials expect more tightening this year, with the debate potentially as soon as October.
  • Gilts (+28 ticks) opened slightly higher, in line with their peers. Strength which comes amidst cooler energy prices, though despite a strong UK GDP report. The UK economy continues to show resilience despite higher energy prices, with July GDP printing at 0.4% (exp. 0%) while the 3-month average also held steady at 0.4% (exp. 0.3%). Manufacturing and industrial production figures were also solid. This set of data is unlikely to change expectations for the BoE rate decision next Thursday.
  • Australia sells AUD 800mln 2.75% November 2029 bonds: b/c 4.47x, avg. yield 5.0396.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent futures pull back slightly following a week of hefty gains on the back of escalating geopolitics. The downside today comes amid reports that Iran and Gulf states are planning to meet, pushing to iron out a deal for the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, sources suggested Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Army Chief reportedly discussed ways to restore diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict on all fronts. Talks reportedly focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Modest downside was seen in crude prices after the IEA slashed its 2026 world oil demand forecast.
  • WTI Oct resides in a USD 99.50–104.46/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.37–104.04/bbl range) compared to Monday’s USD 90.87–94.73/bbl range. Brent Nov trades in a USD 103.85–109.97/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 100.19–109.68/bbl range) and compared to Monday’s USD 95.97–98.06/bbl band. Dutch TTF has also pulled back from EUR 83/MWh intraday extremes before finding support just under EUR 80/MWh, oscillating on either side of the level. It’s also worth noting that US diesel prices hit a record USD 6.06 per gallon, with California approaching USD 8 per gallon.
  • Metals are mixed, with precious metals cheering a slight pullback in oil prices, whilst base metals remain capped amid elevated energy levels. Spot gold trades on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 4,336/oz) in a current USD 4,300-4,361/oz range (vs USD 4,433/oz weekly high). 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,170.78- 14,356.00/t range at the time of writing.
  • IEA OMR: 2026 world oil demand to fall by 2.5mln BPD (vs prev. forecast of a 1.6mln BPD fall), citing impasse in US-Iran talks on resolving their conflict; sees total world oil supply 1.74mln BPD lower than demand in 2026 (vs prev. forecast of 1.27mln BPD lower); now sees full recovery in oil supplies from Gulf producers deferred until 2027; the need for progress in resolving Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts is greater than ever to avoid further oil market tightening.
  • US retail diesel price tops USD 6 per gallon, according to AAA.
  • US Interior Secretary Burgum said every idea is on the table when asked about diesel export controls.
  • China's NDRC raised gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 435/t and CNY 420/t respectively, effective September 11th.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Canadian PM Carney said the latest US trade measures against Canada are modest and he reiterated that Canada is always ready to sit down and negotiate with the US.
  • South Korea's PM Han said talks on strategic investment projects with the US are progressing, and that the government will ease regulations and improve conditions for foreign investment. Han added that South Korea does not discriminate against companies based on nationality, and that US strategic investment talks must deliver mutual benefits and commercial returns.

Central Banks

  • The French Finance Minister said the government has lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), sees 2027 GDP at 1%, and that debt service costs are seen at EUR 65bln (EUR 4.5bln above original plans).
  • ECB’s Moulin said France is not in economic danger. The heatwaves cost the economy 0.1ppts of growth, and the economy will restart at a moderate pace.
  • BoE/Savanta Quarterly Attitude Survey (Aug): 1-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 4%), 2-year ahead 2.9% (prev. 3.5%), 5-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 3.9%).

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Gulf Foreign Ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in an effort by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to FT.
  • US President Trump said Iran has some missiles, but most were knocked out, while he maybe won't go full into Iran because of the election. Trump also stated that the Iran war will end after the US midterm elections and that Iran is waiting for political change in America.
  • US VP Vance privately sought assessments from US military commanders who warned that the Iran war was draining critical stockpiles of Patriot interceptors and long-range missiles, and could weaken US deterrence against China, Russia and North Korea, NYT reported. It added that commanders told Vance that Iran was more resilient than expected and willing to absorb heavy damage without collapsing, prompting Vance to advise President Trump and become more involved in efforts to end the conflict.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are going to sanction a large bank on Monday.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Army Chief reportedly discussed ways to restore diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict on all fronts, according to sources. The talks were focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
  • Al Jazeera reported the entirety of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline is now under Houthi control. It was later reported that the Houthis captured Dhabab and that Yemeni government forces have reportedly withdrawn from Peim Island.
  • Iranian sources said that Tehran ordered the Houthis last week to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised to provide more funding, weapons and senior officers, according to Iran International. Furthermore, Yemen military sources said the IRGC directed a recent Houthi campaign along the Red Sea coast.
  • Iranian President Pezeshkian said that he does not support the continuation of the war, and Iran must withstand the coming circumstances so that negotiations with the "enemy" are not under other conditions, Al Jazeera reported.
  • Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined, and US officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now, according to Axios.
  • Houthis launched a missile attack on southern Saudi Arabia, according to IRNA.
  • UAE is reportedly revising plans for its 5GW AI campus following Iranian attacks, according to sources.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • The European Commission resumed work on options that could persuade governments in the bloc to approve the use of Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Aug CPI MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30 am: Aug Core CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: Aug CPI YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%
  • 8:30 am: Aug Core CPI YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.5%
  • 10:00 am Sep P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 51.7
  • 2:00 pm: Aug Federal Budget Balance, est. -211.1b, prior -344.79b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's hard to believe it but it's 25 years today since the attacks of 11 September 2001. I was on holiday in Spain at the time and watched the events unfold on a small television in disbelief. I remember the horrendous shock of seeing the towers that I had visited clients in only weeks before collapse. I also remember selfishly wondering how I would get home, whether people would ever work in high-rise buildings again, and feeling that the world was going to change forever.

Time tends to push life back towards normality more quickly than you expect. Yet it's also fair to say that many of the geopolitical forces shaping the world today can be traced back to those attacks. And with no obvious end to the US-Iran conflict in sight, markets continued to slump yesterday as fears about stagflation cascaded across multiple asset classes.

Yet again, the main driver was a big jump in energy prices, with Brent crude surging above $107/bbl, whilst European natural gas (+3.53%) hit its highest level since 2022. So that led to mounting speculation about faster rate hikes, while a hawkish ECB decision and a smaller-than-signaled Treasury buyback then gave the selloff even more momentum. As a result, the relentless rise in yields showed no sign of easing, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+16.6bps) posting its biggest daily jump since the debt brake reform announcement 18 months ago, while 10yr Treasury yields (+12.2bps) neared the 5% level. So it was another terrible day for bonds, and that put further pressure on risk assets too, with the S&P 500 (-0.58%) posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since June. The cross-asset sell off has continued into Asian markets this morning, with the Nikkei (-2.24%) and KOSPI (-1.85%) sharply lower and 10yr JGB yields +6.7bps higher even as 10yr US yields, US equity futures and oil are fairly stable as we await today's important US CPI.  

Once again, it is geopolitical fears driving everything. In terms of the latest Middle East headlines, yesterday saw growing concerns over the safety of Red Sea shipping, and the potential knock-on effects for Saudi oil exports, as Houthi rebels captured Yemen’s port city of Mokha, which is located close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the southern end of the Red Sea. The mood also wasn’t helped by news that Saudi Arabia’s oil output has fallen to its lowest since 1990. Beyond that, investors continued to digest the newsflow over recent days which has suggested that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen anytime soon. For instance, President Trump’s own remarks on Wednesday night suggested he thought the war was going to end after the midterm elections in November. Meanwhile, a WSJ report we mentioned yesterday said that White House advisers had privately raised the prospect with Trump that the war could continue for the rest of his term.

With no signs of de-escalation, investors faced up to a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices saw a relentless surge higher. For instance, Brent crude (+6.34%) ended the session at $107.63/bbl, its highest level since May, whilst WTI (+6.69%) was also up to $102.48/bbl. Moreover, the entire oil futures curve moved higher, with the 6-month Brent future (+3.21%) also at its highest since May, at $88.85/bbl. So it was clear investors are pricing a more protracted period of high energy prices. And the tightness has been even more pronounced in refined product markets, with US wholesale diesel prices trading within 1% of their 2022 peak this morning.  

That backdrop was cemented by the ECB’s latest decision, which had several hawkish elements. They delivered a 25bp rate hike as expected, taking their deposit rate up to 2.50%. But the statement had a new line that “inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period”, and ECB President Lagarde called the hike “a no brainer”. In addition, their latest forecasts also moved hawkishly, with both inflation and growth upgraded for the years ahead. Most notably, the 2028 core inflation forecast was revised up two-tenths to +2.3%, so price pressures are seen staying visibly above the 2% target throughout the forecast horizon. The statement language on growth and the labour market was also more upbeat.

To be fair, ECB President Lagarde’s Q&A didn’t really reinforce the hawkishness, as she said that the Governing Council was not taking a view on the direction of policy going forward and avoided endorsing market pricing. However, this did little to stem the hawkish market repricing which then extended further after a Bloomberg sources story reported that another ECB hike was possible as soon as October, even if December may prove more appropriate. This left money markets fully pricing another three hikes from the ECB over the next year. Still, our European economists’ maintain their call for only one more hike in December to 2.75%, as further hikes may be difficult to justify when there is no evidence of second round effects. 

The combination of higher energy prices and a hawkish ECB put fresh pressure on sovereign bonds across the board. In Europe, that was particularly clear at the front end, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+16.6bps) up to 3.23%, marking its biggest daily jump since March 2025 when the debt brake reforms were announced. That was clear further out the curve too, with the 10yr bund yield (+5.6bps) finally exceeding its Euro crisis high in 2011 to close at 3.50%, a level last seen in 2009. And there were even bigger selloffs in other European countries, with France’s 10yr OAT yield (+9.8bps) reaching a post-2008 high of 4.44%, whilst the UK’s 10yr gilt yield (+11.2bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.37%.

For the US it was much the same story, amidst mounting speculation that the Fed would hike rates next week. Indeed, futures raised the probability of a September hike from 60% on Wednesday to 72% by last night’s close. And looking further out, 85bps of hikes are now priced in by the July 2027 meeting, so that means at least 3 hikes are fully priced in over the next year. In turn, Treasury yields surged higher, with the 2yr yield (+15.5bps) rising to 4.59%, its highest since July 2024, whilst the 10yr yield (+12.2bps) rose to 4.96%, the highest since October 2023. And notably, the 30yr yield (+7.6bps) reached its highest since 2007, at 5.36%. Later in the session, the performance of Treasuries wasn’t helped by news that the US Treasury bought back $5.19bn of long-dated debt, falling short of the $6bn maximum it had announced on Wednesday.   

As all that was happening, we did get the latest US PPI inflation print for August. That showed headline PPI up +0.4% on the month, with the July print revised up a tenth to +0.1%. So that pushed the year-on-year reading up to +5.4% (vs. +5.3% expected). But significantly, the components that feed into PCE came in on the stronger side, which cemented the view that the Fed would end up hiking next week. Meanwhile today, we’re set to get the CPI print at 13:30 London time, which is the last big release ahead of the Fed’s decision. Our US economists expect higher gas prices to boost the headline number, with monthly CPI at +0.38% in August, which would keep the year-on-year rate at +3.4%. Meanwhile for core, they expect a relatively softer +0.21% monthly print, which would see the year-on-year number fall a tenth to +2.4%.  

All this took a toll on equities, as fears of stagflation and more rate hikes led to fresh declines. In the US, that meant the S&P 500 (-0.58%) fell for a 4th consecutive session, taking the index to a fresh one-month low. Matters weren’t helped by a sharp slump for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index (-2.66%) falling back after 5 consecutive gains. But the decline was still broad-based, with two-thirds of the S&P 500’s constituents moving lower on the day. Then in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.69%) fell to a two-month low, with further declines for the DAX (-0.84%) and the CAC 40 (-0.49%) as well.  

Coming back to Asia, and as mentioned at the top the Nikkei (-2.24%) and the KOSPI (-1.85%) are leading the declines. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite (-1.82%), the CSI 300 (-1.59%), the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.00%) and the Hang Seng (-0.85%) are also sharply lower. S&P 500 futures (+0.20%) are edging back up with the Nasdaq equivalent and European futures fairly flat.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s business sentiment index for large corporations across all industries has turned positive for the first time in two quarters (at 5.3). Manufacturers posted +7.6, driven by strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and other production machinery amid expanding AI and data center investment. Separately, the PPI slowed slightly in August but remained close to its highest level in over 3-½ years as high energy costs and a weak yen factored into rising business costs. The PPI grew +7.6% year-on-year in August, higher than expectations of +7.4% but cooled slightly from the +7.7% print seen in July, which was revised up from +7.2%.

Looking at the day ahead, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for August. Otherwise, we’ll get the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September, and the UK’s monthly GDP reading for July. Meanwhile, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Lane.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 08:28

Meanwhile In London's Trafalgar Square...

Zero Hedge -

Meanwhile In London's Trafalgar Square...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

They put it up...

On Thursday morning, a five-metre tall overweight black woman in a tight blue dress and matching heels was unveiled on Trafalgar Square's Fourth Plinth and described to the public as a contemporary "everywoman."

City Hall has called Lady in Blue a symbol of 'confidence and purpose'. CNN framed the same object as a victory because it is "not another White man." Ordinary Londoners looking at the thing itself reached a simpler verdict: identity politics on a plinth.

The 16th Fourth Plinth commission is the work of New York artist Tschabalala Self. The figure is bejewelled and mid-stride, with a giant behind.

The Mayor's Press Office posted the official line within hours of the unveiling. "London's Fourth Plinth is one of the most exciting public art commissions in the world," it wrote. "Today we welcome 'Lady in Blue' by Tschabalala Self - a symbol of confidence and purpose and an excellent addition to Trafalgar Square."

BBC London went with the house style: "'Everywoman' statue unveiled in Trafalgar Square." The replies under both posts filled up with the same words: eyesore, insult, not representative, politics not art.

Author Laura Dodsworth quoted the official announcement and kept it short.

Self has been consistent about the brief. "My work Lady In Blue will bring to Trafalgar Square a woman that many can relate to," she said. "She is not an idol to venerate or a historic figurehead to commemorate. She is a woman walking forward into our collective future with ambition and purpose. She is a Londoner, who represents the city's spirit."

Self also said she wanted to "direct everyone's attention to the future" because "I don't think there are enough monuments that are about our shared future to come."

To The Art Newspaper she added: "This is a contemporary representation of personhood. Women need to be understood as being persons. Black people need to be understood as being persons. Despite someone's identity politics, they should be able to be understood as a representation of all human beings."

Ok, but it doesn't look very good, does it.

Deputy mayor for culture Justine Simons called it "not a remote historic figurehead but a tribute to everyday women."

That is of course, only if you're an obese black woman.

Commissioning group chair Ekow Eshun said the work "transforms the everyday into the monumental."

Hmmmmm.

The surrounding square contains Nelson's Column, Landseer lions, Admiralty Arch and the National Gallery. The plinth itself was built in 1841 for an equestrian statue of William IV that never arrived.

Since 1999 it has been reserved for rotating contemporary commissions funded by the Mayor of London, with support from Arts Council England and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

A Greater London Authority decision in 2024 approved more than £1 million of programme spending across 2024-27, covering the 2026 and 2028 commissions, schools awards and engagement. The artist's fee on these commissions has previously been put at £30,000, with a larger production budget on top.

Sunday Times critic Waldemar Januszczak looked at the maquette in 2024 and said "what you see is what it says on the tin," adding that it "lacked originality." Two years later the tin is five metres high and bolted into the ceremonial centre of the capital.

None of this is a surprise. The winner was announced in March 2024. The official language then was already the same: a "young, metropolitan woman of colour," a "quotidian figure," a figure designed to "embrace and confound collective fantasies and assumptions surrounding the Black female body."

The Fourth Plinth is not a neutral empty shelf. It is the most watched public art slot in Britain, and City Hall has used it, commission after commission, to wag a 'progressive' finger at the square that used to commemorate a naval victory.

It is ugly on purpose. The bulk, the cartoon stride, the department-store jewellery - all of it is there to occupy the square in a brazen attempt to make Nelson look like an embarrassment. It's a humiliation ritual.

The public was invited to "have its say" on the 2024 shortlist. More than 10,000 votes were recorded. The decision still sat with the Fourth Plinth Commissioning Group. The Mayor approves the winner.

They didn't install a sculpture. They installed a cheap catalogue figure in glamour heels, bolted onto the ceremonial heart of the capital, then force-fed to the public as "everywoman" by people who would call an actual English person on that plinth a hate crime.

The latest atrocity replaces Teresa Margolles's Mil Veces un Instante, the transgender-faces installation that occupied the same stone for two years.

Of course it did.

In 2024 Sadiq Khan unveiled Margolles's casts of 850 faces, sold as a monument to "marginalised" trans sex workers, after a YouGov poll found 23 percent of Londoners approved and 43 percent disliked it.

A statue of the late Queen Elizabeth II was pushed aside in favour of that.

Taxpayers covered a £170,000 bill. Khan said the work would "encourage discussion about the fight for freedom and equality."

It didn't.

Lady in Blue is not the end of the sequence. It is the middle. And if you think this one is bad, In 2028 It comes down and Andra Ursu?a's Untitled goes up. The official description is a hollow, life-sized person on a horse, covered in a shroud, cast in translucent pale-green resin.

It's a green blob.

City Hall says the rider and horse "will remain anonymous, their distinguishing features concealed under the folds that drape over them." The work "hovers at the edge of visibility." It is, the programme text continues, "a yet-to-be-uncovered or an already cancelled public monument. A ghost of history and a parody of itself."

No, it's a green blob.

That emptiness is the point they want you to swallow. The Fourth Plinth was built for an equestrian statue of William IV. The money ran out. Ursu?a's ghost horse now arrives as a piss take of the monument that was supposed to stand there.

The programme calls it "an artifact of a hyperfragmented, paranoid time when public space, consensus, and community continue to dissolve." It "aims to contain irreconcilable narratives without attempting to rewrite them." It is, the text says, "an object that embodies radical acceptance of our deeply flawed present."

Try to roll your eyes back into place.

They've approved a toxic-green Halloween prop on the plinth reserved for a king and wrote a nonsense thesis in the hope nobody will call it junk.

The order is locked in. Trans faces, then the fat black woman, then some ectoplasm.

Zoom out from the blue dress and the rest of Khan's London clicks into place.

In 2021 the mayor appointed a Commission for Diversity in the Public Realm - a hand-picked panel of campaigners and cultural operators - to review statues, street names and memorials so the city's monuments might be made to "reflect" a preferred history. Khan said the body was not there to pull statues down. He had already said "there are some slavers that should come down, and the commission will advise on that." One appointee had previously vandalised a statue with red paint. Another had backed the toppling of Edward Colston.

This week the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination told Britain to fill public space with statues honouring "people of African descent," rewrite schoolbooks around "reparatory justice," and treat historic slavery as a live brief for speech and migration policy. Historians pointed out the obvious: Britain banned the trade, paid to dismantle it, and ran the West Africa Squadron that seized slaving ships. The UN document is not interested in that ledger. It wants the square.

While the new figure was being craned onto the plinth, the approaches to the same square were already lined with steel and concrete vehicle barriers. City Hall will not name the threat those blocks are built for. The public does. They went up because "vehicle as a weapon" attacks are now treated as a standing condition of British civic life. Nelson looks down on crash-rated steel. Diversity, we are told, is a strength. The furniture of the square says otherwise.

The same culture machine is now pushing Fabric, the nightclub brand chaired by the man who also chairs Khan's Nightlife Taskforce, into St Paul's Cathedral on a four-year "contemporary music" deal. Peregrine Hood of the Nelson Society asked the only question that matters: "Is nothing sacred any more?" Nelson is buried in that cathedral. His column stands a few hundred yards from the new plinth piece. The mayor's culture team called the Fabric deal "an extraordinary and unexpected coming together of two very different parts of London."

Even the stations have been enlisted. Transport for London dropped a pitched-roof "calm space" onto the concourse at Ealing Broadway this week and called it equity. Commuters called it a kennel. The network still cannot keep trains clean, cooled and on time. Fare evasion still bleeds nine figures a year. The pod got the press release.

Trafalgar Square was built to mark a country that won a famous battle for British values. The Fourth Plinth is now used to lecture that country and rub in our faces that our history is being erased and replaced one plinth at a time.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 08:20

US Agencies Accuse China-Based AI Firms Of 'Malicious' Copying Of American Models

Zero Hedge -

US Agencies Accuse China-Based AI Firms Of 'Malicious' Copying Of American Models

Federal cybersecurity and intelligence agencies on Tuesday accused six China-based artificial intelligence companies of running industrial-scale campaigns to extract proprietary features from leading U.S. models.

DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun, and Z.AI were all named in the joint advisory.

Officials alleged the companies, "likely with Chinese government awareness," pulled billions of tokens across millions of requests from U.S. AI systems. The list included variants of Claude, GPT, Gemini, and Grok. The activity dates back to at least late 2024.

Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Acting Director Nick Andersen said that CISA is committed to promoting the secure use of AI.

"We strongly urge AI companies to take immediate steps to safeguard their platforms against knowledge distillation campaigns that threaten to close the gap in advancements made by American companies," Andersen said.

As Kimberly Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, knowledge distillation is a standard research method where a smaller model learns from the outputs of a larger one.

The three agencies - CISA, the National Security Agency, and the FBI - differentiated legitimate research from "aggressive, malicious, and targeted distillation activities at an industrial scale."

The advisory said the firms routed traffic through native application programming interfaces (API), remote cloud providers, and third-party aggregators that strip user metadata. A gray market of proxies, referred to as "transfer stations," helped them dodge geographic blocks, break terms of use, and muddy the trail. Bulk premium subscriptions, shared across developer teams, kept the bills down.

DeepSeek, formally Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co. Ltd., has run an organized campaign since at least late 2024, according to the agency, to feed synthetic training data into its R1 and V3 models.

Targets included Claude 3.7, Claude Sonnet 4 and 4.5, Claude Opus 4.1, Gemini 2.5 Pro and Flash previews, GPT-4, GPT-4o, GPT-5, and Grok 4.

Officials called DeepSeek's widely cited $5.6 million training figure misleading, saying it leaves out the cost of data taken through distillation.

Moonshot AI, or Beijing Moonshot Technology Co. Ltd., was accused of a broad campaign since at least mid-2025. The advisory said the firm pulled substantial Claude Fable 5 data for its Kimi-K3 model and GPT-4o data for Kimi-K2.

The new advisory recommends three steps for U.S. model providers, including hunting anomalous prompts, accounts, and usage spikes; quietly degrading answers when a distillation campaign is suspected; and sharing intelligence across companies, clouds, and API aggregators.

In July, Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios said his office had reason to believe Moonshot AI "distilled Anthropic's Fable for the development of its K3 model."

"Large-scale, covert industrial distillation aimed at stealing proprietary U.S. technology and undermining American research is unacceptable," Kratsios said.

Alibaba, the agencies contended, distilled Claude-4, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, and GPT-5 in late 2025 to hasten software engineering, customer-service dialogue, and image creation for its Qwen family of models. MiniMax, or Shanghai MiniMax Co. Ltd., used Claude Code, Claude Sonnet 4, Claude Opus, and several Gemini versions to improve its M2 model. Officials said MiniMax even attempted prompt injections to convince Claude Code it was actually a MiniMax product.

StepFun distilled a string of Claude and GPT-5 variants between late 2025 and early 2026 for its Step 4 model. By mid-2026, Z.AI had taken billions of tokens of GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.8 data for chain-of-thought reasoning, the advisory said.

On April 23, a White House memo warned of "industrial-scale campaigns" employing "tens of thousands of proxy accounts" and jailbreaking tricks.

"There is nothing innovative about systematically extracting and copying the innovations of American industry," Kratsios wrote at the time. "And there is nothing open about supposedly open models that are derived from acts of malicious exploitation."

The memo also said the campaigns "allow those actors to deliberately strip away security protocols from the resulting models and undo mechanisms that ensure those AI models are ideologically neutral and truth-seeking."

Anthropic, the maker of Claude, said in February that DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, and MiniMax created about 24,000 fraudulent accounts and sent more than 16 million prompts to Claude. MiniMax accounted for more than 13 million, Moonshot AI more than 3.4 million, and DeepSeek about 150,000, according to the company.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is open to sanctioning Chinese AI developers over alleged model theft.

"This administration supports open-source models, but what we do not support is IP theft," Bessent said in July. "If we see, especially, that overseas models are stealing from our great companies, we have the ability to sanction them because of this theft."

"There's a very technical AI word for it called distillation, but you and I would call it theft."

CISA, the National Security Agency, and the FBI said the effort sits at the center of those firms' development plans.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 06:55

10 September 11th Reads

The Big Picture -

Has it really been 25 Years since 9/11? My end-of-week morning reads:

​• 25 Years After the Sept. 11 Attacks, Lower Manhattan Is Thriving: The neighborhood’s population has roughly tripled, dozens of office buildings became apartments, and financial services no longer dominates downtown employment. (Wall Street Journal) see also How a Restaurant at the Top of the World Trade Center Changed New York: Windows on the World, over 100 stories up the North Tower, was a culinary juggernaut. (Wall Street Journal)

• What is driving the global rise in long-term interest rates? Rising bond yields are likely down to stronger investment demand, more supply of long-duration debt and less absorption by yield-insensitive investors. ​Gene Frieda’s Bruegel analysis — stronger investment demand, more supply of long-duration debt, and less absorption by yield-insensitive investors. (Bruegel)

​• The Dramatic Story of the Pentagon on 9/11: From the co-author of Firefight, the definitive account of what happened at America’s military headquarters. The momentous terror attacks 25 years ago almost put the Pentagon out of commission. These are the people who kept the military’s nerve center open for business.  (The Pinpoint Press) see also After 9/11, Documents Suggest, New Yorkers Were Misled About Air Quality: The Mamdani administration releases more than 170,000 pages on the air around the World Trade Center site — the mayor says city leaders “lied” about it being safe. (New York Times)

​• Franklin Templeton Turns the Tide as Western Asset Crisis Recedes: Asset manager moves past painful chapter to extend franchise in public and private markets and reach $1.8tn in assets. Harriet Clarfelt on the abrupt denouement — Ken Leech pleaded guilty to obstructing the cherry-picking investigation, after well over $150 billion in redemptions from Western Asset. (Financial Times).

• A Personal Recollection From a Day of Horror: A first person accont of that dreadful day. (The Big Picture) see also Postscript: The follow up, a few weeks later. (The Big Picture)

​• 14 Reasons Robotics Is Hard: AI progress is racing along, but nearly all of it lives inside a computer — a skeptical tour of the parallel race to build broadly capable humanoid robots. (Second Thoughts)

• The Staggering Financial Cost of 9/11: Quantifying in dollar terms the toll taken by a horrific event and its many consequences. (City Journal) see also Trump’s 9/11 Fantasies: Trump has made similar claims in interviews for decades, claiming to have sent 100 or more construction workers to Ground Zero. Trump has claimed he “helped“ clear rubble and “spent a lot of time down there.” There is no evidence any of this is true. Judd Legum on the president marking the anniversary by describing his own role in heroic terms. (Popular Information)

​• The Metta of Mister Rogers: Twenty-five years after his last episode aired, Gayathri Narayanan on Fred Rogers’ enduring practice of loving-kindness and seeing the good in others. (Lion’s Roar)

​• A Long War Will Permanently Damage Oil Demand: Tim McDonnell on the structural shift underway as the conflict grinds on. In other words, rather than being Big Oil’s biggest booster, Trump could be dragging forward the moment of peak consumption. (Semafor) see also Trump Is Preparing for a Long War: The military is doing long-term planning for its force in the Persian Gulf, risking further strain on the Navy. Nancy A. Youssef on the military’s long-term plansand the further strain on the Navy. (The Atlantic).

​• Jimmy Kimmel’s Interview With James Talarico Heading to YouTube to Avoid FCC Hassle: The Texas Senate candidate’s sit-down gets pulled from the ABC broadcast and streamed instead. (Hollywood Reporter)

Video of the day: NFTs Are Still a Thing, Apparently

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Seth Bernstein, CEO of AllianceBernstein and Head of Asset Management of Equitable Holdings, the 69% owner AB. The firm manages $905.5B. Previously, he spent 32 years at JPMorgan Chase, where he eventually became the Global Head of Managed Solutions & Strategy at JPAM, responsible for all discretionary assets for Private Banking clients, and Global Head of Fixed Income & Currency. He eventually became CFO of JPM’s Investment Management & Private Banking division.

 

How much of August’s payroll strength was seasonal?

Source: US Economist BofA

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 September 11th Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Ukraine Wants To Tax Sex To Fund The War

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine Wants To Tax Sex To Fund The War

Authored by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics,

How desperate must a government become before it considers taxing pornography to purchase drones for a war it cannot win?

Ukraine is now reportedly considering legalizing parts of its adult entertainment industry to generate additional tax revenue for the war against Russia. Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak estimates legalization could bring around $25 million annually into the government's coffers, enough, he claims, to purchase up to 30,000 drones. The legislation has already passed its first reading in parliament and awaits further consideration.

Zelensky has agreed that parliament should consider the proposal after a petition supporting reform attracted more than 25,000 signatures.

You cannot make this stuff up.

Ukraine requires around $120 billion annually for defense, according to reporting on the proposal, and the government is scrambling everywhere it can for money. Its budget deficit exceeds $32 billion as Kyiv simultaneously negotiates with the IMF over additional financial assistance and new taxes. Europe and the United States have poured hundreds of billions into keeping this war machine operating, yet five years into the conflict Kyiv remains financially dependent upon outsiders.

The situation is even more outrageous because the government created this absurdity itself. Producing and distributing pornography remains illegal in Ukraine and can carry years in prison, yet tax authorities began demanding money from Ukrainians earning income through adult platforms. Pay the taxes and you effectively provide the government with evidence that you participated in an activity it criminalized. Refuse to pay and they can prosecute you for tax evasion. Zhelezniak himself described it as a "tragicomic situation."

You cannot legislate human nature out of existence.

Prostitution has survived emperors, kings, dictators, democracies, communism, religious prohibitions, and every law politicians have invented. The Romans tried regulating how prostitutes could be paid and people simply devised ways around the restrictions. Make an activity illegal and government frequently creates an underground market with multiple exploiters.

That is government in its purest form.

First it declares something immoral and sends the police after you. Then it discovers you are making money, demands its percentage, and eventually considers changing the law because it desperately needs the revenue. Ukraine has simply added the insanity of war to the equation.

There is only desperation in reaching the point where politicians are calculating how many battlefield drones can be purchased from taxes on sex work. Every additional scheme to extract another dollar, euro, or hryvnia demonstrates the same underlying reality: this war has consumed Ukraine economically, financially, demographically, and socially. At some point, someone has to admit that destroying what remains of the country to finance an unwinnable war is not defending Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 06:30

US Home Delistings Decline As Sellers Become More Willing To Make Deals

Zero Hedge -

US Home Delistings Decline As Sellers Become More Willing To Make Deals

Property delistings nationwide recorded a year-over-year decline toward the end of this summer, as sellers showed more patience than they did a year ago and a larger share were willing to cut prices, according to Realtor.com.

The August 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, released on Sept. 2, indicated that delistings declined 12.6 percent in August from a year earlier, following decreases of 8.3 percent in June and 4.7 percent in July compared with the respective months in 2025.

By contrast, the December 2025 Realtor.com report showed that delistings in June and July 2025 jumped by 48 percent and 57 percent, respectively, from the same months in 2024.

Authored by As Mary Prenon reports for The Epoch Times, the report attributed the sharp rise in delistings last summer to elevated home prices, higher mortgage interest rates, and economic uncertainty.

The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was around 6.6 percent to 6.8 percent during summer 2025, according to Freddie Mac.

"With buyers and sellers far apart, the sellers' solution is to pull that trump card and delist, rather than cut prices," Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel said at the time.

While the group's September 2026 data showed a year-over-year drop in delistings this summer, it also noted there were 10 consecutive months of annual list-price drops.

In August, 20.4 percent of active listings had price reductions, a 0.4 percentage-point increase from July and unchanged from August 2025.

Listings in pending status declined 0.2 percent from a year earlier, following eight months of gains, which peaked at 4.1 percent in May, according to the report. Contract signings also decreased 3.7 percent compared with August 2025.

Nationally, the median list price stood at $424,500 in August, a 1.0 percent decline from July and a 1.3 percent decline from August 2025.

"August brings a mixed reading: buyer demand softened and price cuts rose modestly above last year's pace, but sellers are still showing more patience than they did during last year's late-summer delisting wave," Krimmel said in a Sept. 3 statement.

"Price cuts, pending sales and delistings together can tell you whether sellers are satisfied, panicking, or somewhere in between."

Regionally, the West and South recorded the largest share of active listings with price reductions in August, at 22 percent and 21.4 percent, respectively. The Northeast had the lowest share, at 14.1 percent, while the share in the Midwest was 19.6 percent.

Meanwhile, 1.14 million active listings across the country were reported in August, including 401,760 new listings - a 5.2 percent dip from July. The report indicates that inventory grew across all four regions, with the Midwest leading by 10.5 percent.

"August's data shows a housing market entering its seasonal cool-down with less momentum than it had earlier this year," Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale added in the report.

"Higher mortgage rates are meeting a point in the calendar when activity typically slows, and buyers appear to be responding more selectively."

As of Sept. 3, Freddie Mac reported an average 6.71 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage, and 5.98 percent for a 15-year fixed loan.

Only the years 2000 and 2023 had higher rates at this time of year in the last 26 years...

Looking ahead to the fall, Realtor.com said the gap in delistings compared with last year could either persist or reverse, depending on market conditions and whether sellers will continue to rely on price reductions.

"Sellers may start to get more desperate in September and subsequent months when mortgage rates are likely to remain higher than they were at this time in 2025," the report noted.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 05:45

Migrants Placed In Tiny British Village Will Out Number Locals By 10 To 1

Zero Hedge -

Migrants Placed In Tiny British Village Will Out Number Locals By 10 To 1

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The official line is that 1,256 single adult males will be placed at the old MoD depot on the edge of the Oxfordshire hamlet. Yet the document villagers pulled out of the consultation pack talks about "accommodation for 3,510 service users."

That is not a rounding error. In a place of 350 people and 46 children, it is a demographic wrecking ball.

The Home Office calls the figure an "outdated estimate" and "categorically untrue." But the document has not been withdrawn.

The village has no pub, no shop, no pavement on the approach road and no street lighting worth the name. Men of fighting age would be free to come and go from a site that backs onto the children's playing field. That is the plan they are being told to accept as "fairness."

This is the same village that first exploded in July when the 1,250 figure landed with almost no consultation.

Children from the parish wrote to the Prime Minister asking him not to take the only home they had known. Seven-year-old Rex Perkin, whose family has lived there more than a century, worried he would no longer be able to walk to his sister's grave. On 4 July - American Independence Day - 96 percent of those who voted backed a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom. The second vote is now days away.

The new row began when residents working through the planning papers found an Unexploded Ordnance risk assessment for Bicester Site A. It states that "the proposed scheme" relates to "accommodation for 3,510 service users." The assessment is dated March this year. It is still online. It has not been amended.

The official planning application seeks a ten-year "temporary" change of use for "non-detained asylum accommodation," open 24 hours, for up to 1,256 single males aged 18 to 65. Consultation closes on 17 September. The village's symbolic independence referendum is two days earlier, on 15 September - Battle of Britain Day.

Parish council chairman Tim McNally put the contradiction in plain English.

"Although the proposal states 1,256 single males between the ages of 18 and 65, the service users focuses on 3,510," he said. "That is ten times the size of the village of Piddington. Now if that is an error, correct it. This is more than alarming. It is either deception at the greatest level or incompetence at the highest."

Resident campaigner Ian Darby told GB News the same suspicion is now general.

"Clearly we're concerned and it's slightly beggars belief that if there was some original thinking at sort of 3,500 people, that they'd still be daft enough to include an old report that is no longer relevant in this consultation," he said.

He added, "Some of us are a little bit more suspicious and worry that that is potentially their ultimate plan, which for this village, just to remind everybody, would be ten times the size of this village. It's a takeover. It's a complete destruction of a beautiful little village."

A Home Office spokesman replied: "It is categorically untrue to suggest we are seeking to house 3,510 people at the MOD Bicester. As our planning application clearly states, we are considering the site to accommodate up to 1,256 asylum seekers."

They added that community concerns are "central to our immigration reforms" and that hotels are being emptied in favour of former military sites.

Villagers note the 3,510 figure was never pulled from the file. They also note the application arrived after a 56-day wait with 11 sections redacted, including material on suicide and self-harm, health and safety, and handling a death on site.

Piddington is a single-lane hamlet of thatched and brick cottages, a 13th-century Grade II-listed church, and a parish playing field. The nearest amenities are miles away down an unlit B-road with no pavement. Gardens sit close to the depot fence. The site is about 750 metres from family homes.

Resident Melise Witkin, 59, told the Mail the argument is not class and never was.

"This is not about being rich or poor, this is about safety," she said. "We are 356 people in the village with 46 children and 1,250 men turning up is a recipe for disaster. People walk their dogs, children play, I just think it is madness. This is about safety, nothing more. Even for them [the asylum seekers], along that road there is no pavement, there are no street lights. We don't have a pub, we don't have a shop, what are the asylum seekers going to do here."

Karen Joy said the fear is already in the houses.

"We feel we have been ignored," she said. "We are a very small village and there is nothing for the people in the asylum camp to do. Our worry is that they will wander into our village and the security is nil. We feel scared. That is all I feel, to be honest."

Victoria Hubbocks described what the change does to ordinary life. She runs at 5am. Her 11-year-old walks the dog alone. The village currently switches street lights off overnight because everyone knows everyone.

"I go for runs at 5 o'clock in the morning and I don't feel scared. I will have to change that," she said. "I think it effectively takes away my children's childhood." On the Prime Minister's demand that every area "step up," she added: "Step up? Fair enough, but ten men to each woman in Piddington isn't a fair proportion in any way, shape or form."

Joe Marshall, on the parish council, said police who visited the site left a phrase behind that nobody in Whitehall wants to repeat.

"We're sitting ducks," he said. "The police have come and had a look and said that we're sitting ducks, and we've not been given any reassurances." He also said the application is "full of inconsistencies," littered with typos, and missing "really crucial documents."

Mario Terzino has an 18-year-old daughter who walks the dog alone. That stops if the camp opens. "We've got no public transport. There is nothing here," he said. "It's not about who's going to the base. It's about the scale. We're talking about 1,250 people, or males, going into a site which is literally adjacent to our playing field. It's just bonkers."

Piddington is being sold as an isolated planning row. It is not. It is the same template stamped across rural Britain: take a high-trust village with no night-time economy, no spare police, and a children's play area, then drop in a barracks-worth of single adult males and call it "equity."

At RAF Linton-on-Ouse in North Yorkshire, a village of about 600 faces around 1,200 single adult males beside a primary school and nursery - six migrant men to every local woman.

 

In Gronant, North Wales, residents woke to find a former village hall, freshly turned into new-build homes, handed to asylum seekers with blacked-out vehicles and no warning. Locals called it an "absolute betrayal."

Crowborough in East Sussex watched hundreds of single adult males arrive at a former army camp. Women reported feeling unsafe. Volunteer patrols followed. Barnham in Suffolk sits on the same list. Together the three English MoD sites were framed as housing about 3,750 people while hotels are emptied.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham's answer to Piddington was not a pause. It was a doctrine. "All parts of the country need to play their part." Middle-class and leafy places, he said, can no longer sit outside the map. Borders minister Anna Turley called it a "more fair and equitable system" and insisted the men would be "contained" on site - while also confirming they "will be allowed out."

The cheerleaders for this policy tend to live nowhere near it. They praise "sharing the burden" until the burden is a lane with no pavement and 46 children. Then the enthusiasm thins out.

Reform UK's Zia Yusuf, who visited the village, blasted the 3,510 assessment.

"It's now been revealed the lying Labour Government had assessments carried out based on housing 3,510 migrants in the English village of Piddington, more than double the official figure of 1,256," he said. "That would have been 10 illegal migrants for every one resident. Villagers' lives will be ruined overnight. Ministers continue to conceal the true scale of what is coming, and the numbers keep rising before a single migrant has even arrived."

Samantha Phillips, 61, a 26-year resident now helping organise self-defence classes for women and children, said: "If this was to happen, if we were to get 3,510 male migrants, then the entire population of Piddington represents less than one tenth of the size of the local male migrants."

Andrea Owen, who grew up in the military community around Bicester, put the cultural point without a think-tank filter. "The British traditions and the British way of life are just being ripped away."

Look at the map and the pattern stops looking like incompetence. Channel crossings continue. Hotels become a political embarrassment. The solution chosen is not detention and removal. It is dispersal into the least densely populated, least policed, most culturally intact corners of the country.

They could not have picked places more alien to a cohort of fighting-age men from the other side of the world if they had tried. No mosque. No late-night high street. No anonymity. A medieval church, a playing field, dog walkers, and children who still treat the lane as their own. Then the same officials express surprise when women book self-defence classes and a parish council talks about independence.

Darby's warning is the one that matters if the 1,256 cap is even real. Once the site is open, it is the easy tap. "If I were sitting in their shoes and this was open even initially at sort of 1,200, and you did have a rush of new asylum seekers arriving, you're going to come here first, aren't you? Because you've already won the battle."

McNally asked the question Whitehall will not answer. "How can a government do this to us? Our children - our children's lives - are the ones that are being undermined."

The consultation ends on 17 September. The village votes on the 15th. Legal options are being prepared. A petition against using MoD sites without proper local consultation has already passed the threshold that forces a government response. Activity on the ground has already been reported. Ecological, electrical, sewage and water documents, residents say, are still not properly in place.

A government that wanted the least disruption would not park thousands of unvetted men against a playground in a hamlet of 350. A government that wanted maximum cultural shock would do exactly that - then lecture the people living there about "playing their part."

Piddington is not refusing to exist in modern Britain. It is refusing to be used as the demonstration site for a policy that treats English village life as surplus.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 05:00

What More Evidence Does The Blob Need That Michael Gove Was Right?

Zero Hedge -

What More Evidence Does The Blob Need That Michael Gove Was Right?

Authored by Toby Young via The Daily Sceptic,

When I think of Michael Gove perusing the latest PISA league tables, proving yet again that his education reforms have transformed the life chances of English schoolchildren, a line from Broadcast News, the 1987 romcom, comes to mind.

"It must be nice to always believe you know better, to always think you're the smartest person in the room," says a veteran television news man to a young female producer.

"No," she replies. "It's awful."

When it comes to teaching and learning, the man who ran the Department for Education from 2010 - 14 really does know better. As he has pointed out, a natural experiment has taken place in Great Britain over the last 16 years - longer, if you date the beginning of the reform programme to the Labour and Skills Act 2000 - with England implementing a raft of educational reforms and Scotland and Wales stubbornly sticking to the same old failed formula. The results in the just-published 2025 PISA data are there for all to see.

English 15 year-olds scored 492 in maths, 497 in reading and 516 in science - 29, 36 and 34 points respectively above the OECD average. England now sits comfortably in the upper reaches of the developed world, having climbed into the top 10 in all three subjects.

Wales, by contrast, has fallen below the OECD average, its maths score declining a full 10 points since 2022. Scotland, though still nominally above the international average, has flatlined since its own dismal 2022 showing and now trails England by roughly a year's worth of learning. Just think about that: in Scotland, the average child is a year behind his English counterparts. (In Wales, they are two years behind.)

So Lord Gove has been vindicated. But knowing he was right won't be much comfort, given the resistance to his reforms in the devolved nations. No free schools, no academies, no 'comprehensive grammars'. No phonics, no spelling and grammar tests, no maths mastery, no EBacc, no Progress 8. Just the same old romantic dross - 'problem solving', 'transferable skills', 'child-centred learning' - that has failed Scottish and Welsh schoolchildren for decades.

Instead of replicating Westminster's knowledge-rich curriculum, Edinburgh and Cardiff rolled out a skills-based "curriculum for excellence". Even today, in spite of the overwhelming evidence of its failure, the SNP Education Secretary, Màiri McAllan, is still defending this rag-bag of progressive clichés.

Scotland's education system, she said in response to the latest PISA figures, looks at "artistic expression, problem solving and moral education" so it produces "well-rounded individuals who are ready and capable to be resilient in this world". Not so ready and capable, Màiri, if they can't read, write or add up. As Gove rightly concluded, there's no evidence schools can teach artistic expression, problem solving or character traits like resilience, so it's better to focus on what they can teach.

The unions have a lot to answer for. In England, it was a standing joke among education reformers in the early 2010s that the 'n' in the NUT stood for 'no' because England's largest teaching union had blocked every reform for the last 50 years. Gove and his trusted lieutenants like Nick Gibb faced down the NUT and drove through his reforms in the teeth of ferocious opposition. But his Scottish and Welsh counterparts weren't so robust, quickly abandoning any effort to overhaul their failing schools when the unions objected.

Some of this can be explained by not wanting to copy what the hated Tories were doing down south. But even when the OECD recommended Scotland reproduce some of the measures that were clearly succeeding in England - a pared-down academic core, greater headteacher autonomy, stricter behaviour management policies, more rigorous assessment - the EIS, Scotland's largest teaching union, threw up its arms in horror. Each time Scottish education ministers have so much as gestured towards reform, the union has treated it as an act of war.

All of which must be profoundly depressing for Lord Gove. What more do you need? he must be thinking. Worse, the current Labour Government is in the process of dismantling the Gove reforms. Incredibly, Bridget Phillipson and now Lucy Powell have looked at the PISA data and concluded that England's education system should be more like that of Scotland and Wales - less school autonomy, no more free schools, continuous assessment instead of rigorous exams, toothless behaviour policies, and a neutered Ofsted. At the heart of Labour's new national curriculum, we're told, will be 'sustainability' and 'decolonisation'.

The blob is back and the smartest man in the room must be reluctantly concluding that no amount of evidence will convince his opponents he was right.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 03:30

Mideast Chaos Sends Supertanker Rates Soaring To $800,000 A Day

Zero Hedge -

Mideast Chaos Sends Supertanker Rates Soaring To $800,000 A Day

Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange's benchmark Middle East-to-China shipping route have surged to a staggering $800,000 a day. With US forces having destroyed five Iranian-linked tankers and Tehran threatening further escalation in recent days, prospects for near-term stabilization remain limited.

The freight surge signals that crude oil and refined products continue to flow but are becoming increasingly costly to transport out of the Gulf region to global markets.

According to Bloomberg, US Gulf-to-Asia shipments on very large crude carriers average about $29.5 million per voyage, equivalent to $15 a barrel before any additional war-risk charges or unexpected delays.

Kpler expects VLCC earnings to remain above $100,000 a day into early next year, compared with historical levels that exceeded $45,000. Morgan Stanley analysts point out that two-year leasing rates could surge another 20% to 30%.

Manu Sehgal, vice president of strategy and feedstock supply at Indian refiner HPCL-Mittal Energy, told Bloomberg that "crude volume is there. What's hampering it is the transit; what's hampering it is the shipping."

A fleet of tankers conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman is helping keep barrels flowing through the Hormuz chokepoint. Vitol's CEO estimated earlier this week that roughly 10 million barrels a day were crossing the waterway, while Goldman analysts put that figure at around 15 million.

The Baltic Exchange's new Gulf of Oman-to-East Asia benchmark has surged 85% since inception, reaching almost $386,000 a day this week.

This means surging tanker rates add another layer of inflation pressure for global central banks. Those costs can filter through to gasoline, diesel, freight, and ultimately consumer goods on store shelves. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 02:45

Austria's Headscarf Ban For Under-14 Schoolgirls Comes Into Force

Zero Hedge -

Austria's Headscarf Ban For Under-14 Schoolgirls Comes Into Force

Via Remix News,

Austria's new nationwide ban on "traditional Muslim" head coverings, including hijabs and burqas, for girls under 14 in both public and private schools, has now taken effect as of Sept. 7, 2026. in Vienna, Lower Austria, and Burgenland.

The start date coincided with the start of the new school year.

Austria's remaining states will follow with a ban next week as well.

The measure, framed by the government as a child-protection and gender-equality policy, immediately faced visible resistance from Muslims and the first formal legal challenge.

At an Islamic primary school in Vienna, reporters from Austrian news outlet Heute observed young girls arriving to school still wearing headscarves accompanied by their mothers. One child wore a pink hijab coordinated with her dress; two slightly older students entered in simple hijabs without parents. School officials did not immediately clarify how they would apply the ban on private Islamic institutions.

The law requires schools to start with conversations involving the student and her legal guardians. Repeated violations trigger involvement of child-protection services, with fines of €150 to €800 possible for parents as a last resort. Teachers, already under strain, must initiate these talks. There are now fears of real conflict arising in the coming months.

Integration Minister Claudia Bauer of the conservative ÖVP described the headscarf as "a sign of oppression and a means of controlling girls from the earliest childhood." Chancellor Christian Stocker has separately called for a constitutional ban on political Islam, saying he does not "want to live in an Islamic state."

The right-wing Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), the most popular party in the country is known for its even harsher stance toward migrants and Islam in the country. FPÖ politician Ricarda Berger stated there is "no place for political Islam in Austria, and certainly not in our schools."

The party wants a general ban on all headscarves and face coverings in schools for both students and teachers alike, which would cover all ages.

Education Minister Christoph Wiederkehr of the liberal NEOS acknowledged uncertainty about the law's fate at the Constitutional Court, stating: "You can never be completely certain."

He added that the government and education ministry "carried out very intensive consultations" to draft a constitutionally compliant text.

Only the Greens opposed the bill in parliament. Green politician Sigi Maurer accused Wiederkehr of "creating new conflicts and offloading them onto the teachers," saying the minister wanted to "foist the role of police officers onto them."

Teachers' union chairman Paul Kimberger noted that some communities had already announced they would resist and that certain conversations with parents "will probably have limited success."

The Islamic Religious Community in Austria (IGGÖ), the largest Islamic organization in the country, condemned the ban as discriminatory. Spokesperson Carla Amina Baghajati said, "We believe it unjustifiably restricts the fundamental right to freedom of religion and disproportionately affects Muslim girls. Rather than protecting children, it singles out a specific religious practice and risks excluding the very children it claims to support."

The IGGÖ has pledged to support families challenging the law at the Constitutional Court. A request for annulment was filed on the first day of school.

A 2020 Constitutional Court ruling had struck down an earlier ban limited to children under 10, finding it violated Austria's duty of religious neutrality. The court dismissed premature challenges to the new law in July because it had not yet entered force, but that procedural barrier is now gone. Left-wing student groups have called for protests. An 11-year-old girl demonstrated against the ban in February carrying a banner that, translated into English, read, "My headscarf, my decision."

The Constitutional Court is likely to have the final word on the issue.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 02:00

We Are In World War Xi

Zero Hedge -

We Are In World War Xi

Authored by Karen Siegemund and Bradley A. Thayer via American Greatness,

As the Russo-Ukrainian war continues, Americans may blame Russian leader Vladimir Putin for starting "World War III." It is correct that World War III has started, but its cause is the People's Republic of China (PRC), not Russia.

The war did not start with Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or with the appeasement of Russia in the years before Putin's foolish aggression. It started with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The

CCP has been at war with the U.S. since coming to power in 1949 and has employed many fronts in this war to undermine America and the West. The CCP's May 2019 declaration of "People's War" against the U.S. was CCP leader Xi Jinping's call for a maximal effort against America. Not coincidentally, the COVID-19 outbreak soon followed. The CCP lied about COVID's origins, refused to share information with the world, and used Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), as its willing accomplice. Another front is CCP election interference. President Trump has revealed the CCP's interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential election in an effort to secure President Joe Biden's victory. Biden's open borders allowed many hundreds of thousands of military-age Chinese men into the United States - prepositioning a force to strike against the American people in their homeland. The sustained chemical warfare attack that is fentanyl is another avenue of attack, destroying American lives and families. The CCP's success at buying American and European politicians and journalists to serve as its agents of influence is yet another, as is TikTok.

Putin is not the source of World War III. Putin is, in the scheme of World War III, a secondary player. It is Xi who is driving World War III. It seems that the common denominator for every manifestation of this global crisis, whether overt or covert, foreign or domestic, is that Xi Jinping and his CCP have either inspired or enabled them - or at least, stand to be the principal beneficiaries. Consequently, while some call this World War III, one might consider a more apt name to be "World War Xi."

It was Xi who gave the green light to Putin to invade Ukraine when they met in early February 2022. Xi and Putin have met over 11 times since then, most recently in Bishkek, and on each occasion, Xi has evinced strong, public support for Putin's war. While the Russo-Ukrainian war is not yet resolved - it has lasted longer than World War I - it already has a clear winner: the PRC. The PRC provides great assistance to Russia - diplomatic, economic, and "dual-use" military aid - all of which is important to sustain Russia's war. Beijing is receiving a prodigious return that is helping Xi win World War III.

First, by sustaining the war, the PRC occupies the U.S. and so diverts attention from its aggressive acts and preparations for war over Taiwan, which might include attacks against the U.S. itself. The U.S. intelligence community and military have only so much bandwidth, and the conflicts in Iran, Ukraine, and elsewhere in the Middle East are filling it. In addition, U.S. stockpiles are drained by the conflict in Iran and aid to Ukraine, including Patriot, ATACMS, and other missiles, and 155mm artillery rounds, all of which reduce the ability of the U.S. military to fight a high-intensity war with the PRC. In turn, a reduced U.S. arsenal hurts U.S. conventional deterrence in key theaters, like the western Pacific and Taiwan.

Second, the war cements Putin's dependence on the PRC. Putin is Xi's myrmidon, the supplicant in the relationship. Truly, Putin is Xi's useful idiot. Xi drafted Putin to serve in his anti-Western alliance, which costs Putin his autonomy. Xi's ultimate ambition is to overthrow U.S. power and position in the world and shackle the world to the PRC's tyrannical ambitions. Putin's interest would have been better served by emerging as the tertius gaudens of the conflict between the U.S. and the PRC. Now that he has tied Russia's interests to the PRC, he will walk the path Xi requires of him. That requires Russia to accept diminished influence when Russia's interests conflict with the PRC, such as in Central Asia, and to serve as an instrument of distraction for the U.S. and its NATO allies while China expands its military power and strategic ambitions. Putin must fear that once he has served his usefulness, Xi may overthrow him.

Third, Putin also serves as a lightning rod, attracting the world's animus and attention for his acts while Xi's genocide in Xinjiang remains too often unremarked and in the background. The PRC's preparations for war against Taiwan and its increasingly coercive measures against the Philippines also do not receive the attention they deserve.

Fourth, as a result of the Ukraine war, Xi has secured his northern flank. Russian conventional and nuclear military power is now a tool to be employed in conjunction with or apart from the PRC's military - but to serve Beijing's interests. The U.S. has a "multiple front" war problem with which it must contend.

Moreover, Xi has secured his western flank in Central Asia. The Central Asian states perceive Russia as a threat due to the invasion of Ukraine and see Moscow as the junior partner in the Sino-Russian relationship. For Xi, this is a remarkable occurrence at the same time that China is committing genocide against Kazakh, Kyrgyz, and Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang or East Turkistan. The PRC's western flank is as secure as it has been in recent years. With two flanks secure and Xi's ability to project power expanding, it is no surprise that Xi is aggressing on the PRC's southern and eastern flanks.

The bottom line is that the Russo-Ukrainian war greatly benefits the PRC. As the PRC gains in military might, this hurts the ability of the U.S. to defend its national security interests elsewhere, including in the western Pacific. In turn, this weakens the ability of the U.S. to deter aggression against Taiwan, the Philippines, and other states, as well as the ability to fight a war with the PRC, should deterrence fail.

The costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war are high in every respect. While Moscow may eke out a Pyrrhic victory, the true winner of the war is Beijing. The war continues because Xi wants it to, and his aid allows Putin to pursue his folly.

With its strategic position strengthened and its power projection capabilities expanding, the PRC is putting in place the conditions necessary for aggression. The U.S. and its allies should expect China to center its belligerency on its southern and eastern flanks. This aggression might be kinetic - indeed, at some point it will be so - against India on Beijing's southern flank, against Taiwan on the eastern, and possibly even against Japan and the U.S. But the PRC will continue to employ all the tools of statecraft to bring its might to bear to cause the change it wants. Thus, the world should expect diplomatic, ideological, and economic pressure to be employed by the PRC against them, while Beijing also seeks to undermine the governments of India, Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. We should also anticipate the continued expansion of the PRC's domestic influence in those countries through the use of the PRC's United Front Work Department to subvert them and other overt and covert efforts.

It is a new world. Soviet dominance over the PRC during the Cold War is now reversed. In World War III, the PRC calls the shots because of Putin's strategic idiocy. Having the PRC's northern and western flanks secured is a key step toward Xi's greater belligerence. The CCP is employing many tools in this war, and the American people need to recognize the avenues of attack.

The U.S., its allies, and its partners must move beyond anticipating aggression to recognizing its certainty and the reality of World War Xi.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 23:25

25 Years Later, Air Travel Still Bears The Imprint Of 9/11

Zero Hedge -

25 Years Later, Air Travel Still Bears The Imprint Of 9/11

Authored by Jeremy Lott via The Epoch Times,

The terror attacks 25 years ago this week had enduring costs for America's commercial aviation sector.

Today's domestic fliers are on balance worse off for it, with higher costs, fewer choices, and more delays.

That's because, on Sept. 11, 2001, men who were part of the al Qaeda Islamist terror network bought tickets and boarded four passenger planes out of Boston, northern Virginia, and Newark, New Jersey.

Once airborne, the 19 terrorists hijacked those planes and managed to fly two of them into the World Trade Center towers and one into the Pentagon.

The remaining plane, United Airlines Flight 93 from Newark to San Francisco, was brought down by a revolt of passengers and crew who had pieced together what was happening with the other planes.

The Boeing 757 crashed into a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, instead of its intended target, which the National Park Service identified as the U.S. Capitol.

At the World Trade Center, more than 2,700 people died that day.

When Flight 93 went down in Pennsylvania, all 44 people, including seven crew members and 33 passengers, including the four hijackers, died on impact.

At the Pentagon, where American Airlines Flight 77 from Washington Dulles Airport to Los Angeles crashed, 189 people died, including 125 people in the building, six airline crew members, 53 passengers, plus the five hijackers.

Airlines in the Red

For the airlines, the financial impact was awful and bordered on existential.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) grounded all flights for several days. Once the planes were cleared for takeoff, many would-be passengers were jittery about being airborne. After all, they had just watched domestic planes slam into skyscrapers on their television sets, over and over.

These planes had long been seen as mechanical marvels that shortened long trips and brought the world closer together. The al Qaeda hijackings turned them instead into visible instruments of previously unimaginable destruction on U.S. soil.

Looking back at that day, the International Air Transport Association did not sugarcoat it.

"On September 11, 2001, the world changed forever," Willie Walsh, former director general of the air travel trade group, said in a fact sheet for the 20th anniversary of the day.

"Those of us old enough to understand what was happening at the time still remember where we were when we heard the horrific news. Indeed, for many, it probably still feels like yesterday."

The attacks were not only "assaults on the United States of America," as far as the world of aviation was concerned. Those weaponized planes were also aimed straight at the "global air transportation system - a facilitator of peace and freedom," he said.

Financial fallout from the attacks was swift and severe. Revenues and profits nosedived.

U.S. passenger airlines had posted profits of $2.2 billion in 2000. They lost $8 billion in 2001, and revenues did not climb back to 2000 levels until 2004.

Those losses contributed to the bankruptcies of several air carriers, most notably US Airways and United Airlines in 2002. United stayed aloft, but US Airways eventually was absorbed by American Airlines.

Airport Security Costs

An act of Congress created the Transportation Security Administration, popularly known as the TSA, in November 2001 to help address security concerns. The TSA took over screening at most airports.

The Aviation and Transportation Security Act also greatly expanded a previously existing air marshals program to put many more armed, hidden officers on flights to thwart future would-be hijackers.

Costs for U.S. fliers grew higher, in part to pay for the new, slower airport security. U.S. taxpayers are paying for it as well. The amount spent on the TSA has varied from year to year. At present, the yearly price tag is in the $11 billion range.

Gary Leff, proprietor of the popular View from the Wing website, is not happy about that.

"It's not clear what we've gotten spending over $10 billion annually," he told The Epoch Times.

TSA oversaw the formalization of what some critics have called security theater, with belts and shoes off, liquids limited in size, passengers subjected to various scanning devices, and lots and lots of plastic tubs.

Bill McGee, a senior fellow for aviation at the American Economic Liberties Project, says he still believes that TSA security beats the alternative.

"It's really easy to beat up on the TSA, and I've done it quite often myself. In fact, there's an entire chapter on TSA criticism in my book 'Attention All Passengers,'" he told The Epoch Times.

At the same time, he said, it's important to remember "what airline and airport security was like prior to 9/11," when "security was the responsibility of the airlines, and it was often non-existent."

"I think we can all agree that the airlines' efforts in outsourcing airport security on 9/11 was a spectacular failure," McGee said, adding that TSA's existence indicates "that aviation security is taken seriously enough that it's the responsibility of the federal government."

He said he would not want to have such a "vital function that is so intrinsic to national security be outsourced to the lowest bidders again."

Where TSA Can Improve

Yet there are downsides to having the TSA as it is currently organized. Instead of scrapping the agency, however, McGee suggested, "Let's think instead about how Congress can fix the TSA for all of us."

The federal government funds the TSA. When government shutdowns happen, as they do periodically, this creates problems for airport screening. TSA still functions during government shutdowns but not well.

Agents go unpaid, sometimes for long stretches. They have a statutory guarantee of back pay once the government is funded again. Yet overtime is discouraged, and absenteeism rises. This leads to longer screening times and missed flights.

That is what happened during the 76-day partial government shutdown of agencies under the Department of Homeland Security earlier this year.

Ha Nguyen McNeill, acting TSA administrator, testified in late March that the "cost of coming to work [was] becoming more untenable for the workforce." The agency's daily call-out rates had increased from 4 percent to 11 percent and at some airports were greater than 50 percent.

This reduced screening capacity was hiking wait times to "over four and a half hours at certain airports, raising major security risks and missed flights for passengers," McNeill said in prepared remarks.

In contrast, a handful of airports participate in the Screening Partnership Program. This allows private contractors to do the screening, under TSA regulations and nominal supervision, with a different line of funding.

The largest airport in the program is San Francisco International Airport (SFO). At roughly the same time that McNeill was sounding the alarm before Congress, the airport was reassuring fliers that they could enjoy their spring break travels.

"While we've seen and heard about the long security checkpoint lines over the last few weeks at major airports around the country, SFO is NOT experiencing this issue," the airport announced on social media.

During the partial government shutdown, the airport's screener-contractors were "being paid without interruption," and screening was "operating as usual."

The San Francisco airport regularly posts its security checkpoint wait times. For Sept. 6, waits ran between one and nine minutes for general boarding and between zero and four minutes for fliers with TSA PreCheck authorization.

The San Francisco example illustrates the gap between what TSA might be and what it actually is, Leff said. "Instead of regulating security provided by others," he said, the screening agency "largely regulates itself, which has led to a lack of accountability."

For instance, border agencies frequently operate what are called red teams, whose job it is to try to get contraband through a checkpoint.

TSA ran red teams for years. They found that TSA screeners are very bad at catching items that have been flagged as dangerous.

"After a series of embarrassing disclosures about their failure rates detecting dangerous items at checkpoints [with] failure rates over 90 percent a decade ago, they simply stopped releasing information on their effectiveness publicly," Leff said.

As the 25th anniversary of Sept. 11 approaches, Leff said that the response to the attacks has had bad effects for both fliers and would-be fliers.

"For travel, it's meant that trips take longer. That means fewer trips by air than there'd otherwise be. It likely means more car trips, which are far less safe, and more loss of life as a result. But we never examine second- and third-order effects," he said.

Last year, 64 people on commercial airlines died in the United States. All of the deaths came when an Army Black Hawk helicopter collided with a small commuter plane over the Potomac River near Reagan National Airport on Jan. 29. Three people in the helicopter also died.

Over that same period, 36,640 traffic fatalities were reported on American roads.

Progress and Innovation

Former International Air Transport Association boss Walsh saw one bright spot at American airports in the first 20 years following Sept. 11.

He thought that TSA PreCheck, where frequent fliers trade more information about themselves and a small fee for expedited screening, was worth celebrating.

Walsh acknowledged that "extraordinary measures" were probably necessary to get things flying again, post Sept. 11, but he made the case that the need for many of these measures had long-since passed.

Future American airport security could "move beyond the one-size-fits-all, rules-based model that still ... governs passenger security screening" and establish "firm deadlines" to sunset unnecessarily stringent rules, he said. These changes would make sure that "what we are doing is relevant."

James Fallows is a journalist, a small craft pilot and the author of several books, including a few on aviation.

"Free Flight: From Airline Hell to a New Age of Travel," was the original title of one of those books, published only months before Sept. 11, 2001.

Fallows saw the beginnings of something new taking shape. He observed smaller craft playing a bigger role in transportation and thought that would grow into a somewhat decentralized air-taxi system in the future.

The Epoch Times asked him about how the terror attacks had affected that development, and how he sized up its prospects today.

"So much has changed in the 25 years since the 9/11 attacks," Fallows said. For several years, "dramatically tightened security rules limited private air travel of all sorts."

However, that was not the whole story.

"The increasing congestion of airlines, and the ongoing progress in aircraft and engine design, has led to steady growth in private jet travel - for those who can afford it."

The next step is to bring that experience to more people. Many companies are working to create an "air taxi model" that people of modest means can afford to hail, Fallows said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 22:35

Diesel Crunch Set To Worsen As Refining Capacity Falls Short, Industry Warns

Zero Hedge -

Diesel Crunch Set To Worsen As Refining Capacity Falls Short, Industry Warns

The global diesel market - already trading at record prices - is set to further tighten in the coming months and keep fuel prices high, raising the prices of all goods and threatening the inflation targets of the central banks.

Industry officials, who gathered at the APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore this week, warned that the market has not seen the worst of the diesel crisis yet. Analysts say the real stress in oil markets is in the diesel market right now, OilPrice reported.

Global fuel markets are very tight and inflexible, despite the higher crude oil flows out of the Persian Gulf in recent weeks, Russell Hardy, chief executive of the world's biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, said on Tuesday.

“We're still not running enough refining capacity to prevent those draws, and we keep eating into the surplus that exists around the world,” Hardy said at the event, as carried by Bloomberg.

Despite the uptick in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, only 1 million barrels per day (bpd) out of an estimated 10 million bpd outbound flows are refined products, the rest is crude.

Refinery capacity is constrained in the Middle East, due to Iranian strikes on refineries and the trickle of fuel flows through Hormuz.

Moreover, refinery capacity in Russia is also severely restricted by nearly-daily Ukrainian drone strikes at Russian refineries, while Russia has banned diesel exports until at least the end of September.

Refineries in the United States and elsewhere have been running at maximum capacity this summer, having delayed maintenance. But they are unlikely to continue operating at these elevated utilization rates for much longer.

If the global refining system can sustain these processing rates until the end of this year, “it is going to be an achievement,” Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al Sabah, managing director for international marketing at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), told Bloomberg.

“I think we’re going to see a very difficult winter coming in Northwest Europe,” the executive said. “This is only the beginning.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 22:10

Oil Tanker Rates Hit Record Highs as Middle East Shipping Risks Soar

Zero Hedge -

Oil Tanker Rates Hit Record Highs as Middle East Shipping Risks Soar

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Oil tanker rates have jumped to record highs as escalating risks to shipping in and out of the Middle East are prompting traders and tanker operators to undertake inefficient and more expensive trade routes.

While the crude oil supply is actually there, shipping it through the Strait of Hormuz remains a very risky endeavor, especially in light of the escalating U.S.-Iran tanker war in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, while Saudi Arabia has started to move crude cargoes out of the region through the north of the Red Sea and from Egypt’s Mediterranean ports.

The much longer workarounds are tying tankers and supertankers for longer with the shippers, tightening the market of available vessels so much that rates are skyrocketing to all-time highs. 

For example, the benchmark daily rate for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to ship oil from the Middle East to China has hit a record high of almost $800,000, per data compiled by Bloomberg.

The price of chartering a supertanker to ship crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia has now hit a lump-sum fee of $29.5 million per run, and that’s not even factoring in fees for additional war risks or unexpected delays. 

“The VLCC positions list is now so tight that no one would be too surprised if we see the WS 400 mark breached for a Fujairah/East run off a prompt-ish position before long, crazy as it may sound,” shipbroker Fearnleys said in its latest weekly report for the week ended September 9.

“The oil still needs to get out through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranians have increased efforts to stop that from happening. It’s a fragile state of affairs,” the shipbroker added.

“There’s quite a few bottlenecks all at the same time,” Alex Grant, Equinor’s global head of crude, products and liquids trading, told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore.

“The market is quite stressed with all of that, and that’s showing up in the shipping rates.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 21:40

Why Family-Run Grocers Are Suing New York Over City-Run Stores

Zero Hedge -

Why Family-Run Grocers Are Suing New York Over City-Run Stores

Authored by Russ Jones via The Epoch Times,

Josefina Aguirre grew up among the piñatas hanging from the ceiling of Little Mexico Meat Market, the store her parents opened in New York City's El Barrio in 1997, three years after her father crossed the border from Mexico at 17.

She has a bachelor's degree in business management, a qualification her parents, Oscar and Guadalupe Aguirre, insisted on. But she came back to work at the store anyway - to the same three coolers of fresh cheese and cilantro, the same shelves of jalapeños and tomatillos, and the same customers who still bring in their mail so she can read it to them in English.

The store has survived the opening of a Costco nearby. It survived COVID-19, barely. Her father caught the virus and died before he ever got to enjoy the retirement he had worked 28 years for.

Now, Aguirre and her sisters, who run the shop together, are bracing for what they see as the biggest threat yet: a city-subsidized grocery store that can sell a $10 steak for $7, because, unlike them, it doesn't have to turn a profit.

"We're not scared of competition," Aguirre told The Epoch Times on Aug. 29 from behind the counter in Spanish Harlem. "We just want fair competition."

A dozen blocks south, Yessica Lezama hears the same fear from her parents. Benito and Carmen emigrated from Mexico and became U.S. citizens before opening El Pueblo Mexicano Grocery on Third Avenue 25 years ago. They were drawn to the stretch of neighborhood known for its Mexican community.

Lezama, 38, has worked with her parents for three years, serving the same customers and stocking the same shelves of fruits, vegetables, and Mexican products that have kept the store going for a generation.

"I think it will have a bad impact on sales," Lezama said of the mayor's grocery store plan. "Since we're a Mexican store, the city-run store won't sell the same products, but it will still hurt us."

Lezama said nearby business owners have formed an informal network to share information and support one another as the plan moves forward, meeting regularly to talk through their options.

"We help each other," she said. "It is hard enough already. We don't get a lot of help, and we're worried about going out of business."

Her parents are hoping to do more than just survive, Lezama said. They are working with a small-business association to modernize the store.

"My parents need help to make it more beautiful," she said.

2 Lawsuits, 1 Target

Aguirre is one of hundreds of small-business owners now represented in two lawsuits filed against New York City by the Multicultural Business Coalition, a group representing roughly 1,000 minority-owned bodegas, delis, and supermarkets. The group argues that Mayor Zohran Mamdani's plan to open city-run grocery stores will drive them out of business rather than help their neighborhoods.

The coalition filed a class-action complaint in the New York County Supreme Court on Aug. 24, alleging antitrust violations and predatory pricing, and a second suit the same day alleging that the city retaliated against members after they began organizing against the mayor's plan.

Together, the suits mark one of the most direct legal challenges yet to a marquee policy of Mamdani's first year in office.

The first complaint states, "The Defendants' municipal grocery stores deny the Class Members, hundreds of grocers, many small grocers equal protection, as they are not able to offer discounts that markedly depart from globalized commerce, thereby violating New York's Civil Rights Law."

The second suit states that the "opening of the underlying municipal grocery stores ... is diametrically opposed to the City's longstanding reasons for refusing to allow Walmart to operate grocery stores in the City: that the fallout from allowing Walmart to operate deep discount business, while bringing 'affordability,' further enriching a multibillion-dollar business, would eliminate an untold amount of opportunity for minority businesses, and small business at large."

Mamdani responded to the suits the same day they were filed.

"I'm confident in both the legality of this - that it will stand up in court - and the importance of delivering it," he said at an Aug. 24 news conference.

Frank Garcia, the coalition's chairman and head of the New York State Coalition of Hispanic Chambers of Commerce, said the mayor's confidence misses what's actually at stake for the coalition's members.

"My grandfather opened up one of the first bodegas in the late 1960s, when East Harlem was burning," he told The Epoch Times.

"I am proud to be following in his tradition, because what Mayor Mamdani is doing is disgracing his memory."

Inside the $70 Million Plan

Under the plan, first unveiled last year, the city will spend $70 million to open five publicly owned grocery stores, one in each borough, offering staples at prices roughly 30 percent below market rate.

The stores won't sell beer, cigarettes, or lottery tickets and will be designed to keep prices low rather than turn a profit. The goal, Mamdani has said, is to make food more affordable in neighborhoods with high poverty rates and limited access to full-service supermarkets.

The Bronx location, in an affordable housing complex in Hunts Point, is expected to open in 2027. The East Harlem store will be located at the 9,000-square-foot marketplace La Marqueta and is projected to open in 2029, according to city officials.

Mamdani has repeatedly defended the initiative.

"I continue to be fully confident in both the legality and the importance of our initiative to deliver five city-run grocery stores, one in each borough, to the people of our city," he said in a statement in July, noting that grocery prices in the city have climbed by roughly 30 percent in recent years and that City Hall could also ease regulations to help existing store owners in the meantime.

Garcia said the coalition tried repeatedly to meet with Mamdani before filing suit, without success, and that the city moved ahead without ever conducting an economic impact study.

"Why are they going against immigrant business owners who can't speak English and defend themselves?" Garcia said. "I don't see that the mayor is being fair."

Mark Jaffe, general counsel for the Multicultural Business Coalition and president of the Greater New York Chamber of Commerce, told The Epoch Times that the city's plan goes further than officials have admitted.

"Their plan is to eventually put every independent store owner out of business," Jaffe said. "And if you're lucky, maybe they'll give you a job."

When he pressed city officials for details on how the stores would actually be run, he said, he got no real answer.

"We asked what the business plan was," Jaffe said. "They told us, 'We don't need a plan, because the people we select will be responsible for coming up with the plan.'"

Jaffe also questioned whether a single store per borough would even reach the people Mamdani says he wants to help.

"Who is this really going to serve?" he said. "By the time you get on the train and spend two hours traveling, you're paying more" than you would have shopping at a neighborhood store.

An Economist's Warning

Economists are divided on what the lawsuits and the underlying policy mean for the city's food supply chain.

Christian Briggs, a political and economic analyst who has advised members of Congress, argued that the plan fits a broader pattern of government expansion into private markets.

"This is a manmade takeover of the food supply system," Briggs told The Epoch Times, comparing the initiative to nationalization efforts he attributed to past presidential administrations.

He noted that grocery stores typically run on net margins of just 4 percent to 5 percent, making a government-subsidized competitor selling goods 30 percent below market what he called "the beginning of the nationalization of our food chain supply system."

Briggs also predicted that despite the coalition's legal argument, consumer behavior would ultimately favor the city-run stores.

"'Free' is the most powerful word in the English language," he said, likening the grocery plan to the long-term trajectory of entitlement programs.

"The lawsuits are valid. They're justified. But in the end, you will not win over the word 'free,' because voters love free."

'Using Taxpayer Money'

Back at Little Mexico Meat Market, Aguirre said the math is simple and unforgiving. Her margin on a $10 steak helps cover her mortgage, her children's tuition, her rent, and utilities.

A city-run competitor selling the same steak for $7, funded by taxpayers rather than sales, doesn't have to make that math work.

"He can afford it because he's using taxpayer money," Aguirre said. "We don't have any help. Loans have been made difficult to get."

She and her sisters have quietly begun discussing plan B, such as teaching or other careers, or anything that doesn't mean losing more of what their father built before he died. That loss follows her behind the register every day - behind the same counter where her father used to stand.

"Is it fair for me to leave and start a new career?" Aguirre asked.

It's not a question she wants to answer. Not yet, anyway.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 20:05

Citi Says LatAm "Poised For Take-Off" As Powerful Tailwinds Align. Here's Why

Zero Hedge -

Citi Says LatAm "Poised For Take-Off" As Powerful Tailwinds Align. Here's Why

Our focus on South America's improving investment outlook, underpinned by a generational shift from left-wing governments to more business-friendly governments, gained support Thursday from Citi's report, "LatAm Poised for Take-Off: The Macro Cycle Turns Latin America's Way."

Citi chief Latin America economist Ernesto Revilla wrote in a note earlier today that a right-wing political shift is serving as a tailwind alongside a weaker dollar, firm commodity prices, and global supply-chain realignment, while stressing that lasting gains depend on reforms and execution. 

Here is Revilla's take on improving LatAM markets: 

Latin America is entering one of its most favorable environments in years, with external and domestic conditions supporting a potential acceleration in growth. The global economy has remained resilient despite recent shocks, while a weaker U.S. dollar and firm commodity prices provide important tailwinds for the region. Latin America is also benefiting from shifting trade patterns, standing out as one of the few regions gaining import market share from both the U.S. and China. At the same time, stronger macroeconomic management, improving policy frameworks, and a more business-friendly political backdrop in several countries are strengthening the investment case. In this report, we examine whether these forces can translate into sustained growth and market outperformance. Our conclusion is clear: the opportunity is significant, but lasting success will depend on reforms, execution, and policy consistency.

Latin America is poised for take-off. Or to be more precise: the conditions for Latin America to achieve a higher rate of growth are the best they have been in decades, and it is time to capitalize on the opportunity.

The last time the region achieved a sustained acceleration in growth was from 2003-2008. Back then, a weak dollar (USD) and strong commodity prices combined to form the backdrop for growth. Those conditions, and more, are present again today.

Still, the development misfortune of Latin America is how little (or no) convergence it has achieved toward higher income levels. Convergence is the expectation that an emerging market will achieve higher growth rates to catch up to developed markets. As a region, Latin America has achieved little sustained convergence over the past 120 years. Consider that in 1990, LatAm's GDP per capita as a share of the U.S. was 28%; in 2024, it was 26.4%. Other regions, particularly Emerging Asia, have achieved significant rates of growth and convergence.

When looking at different eras of growth and development for Latin America, it is not easy to extract common characteristics of high growth episodes. Generally, one would expect that strong commodity prices, domestic political stability or at least policy continuity, and pragmatic governments are minimum conditions. Latin America has those again today. However, history shows that there were periods of strong growth without particularly strong commodity prices (1950 to 1973), or strong investment (the commodities boom of the 2000s).

However, the common denominator across eras when Latin America has achieved high growth and convergence (an increase in its GDP per capita as a share of the U.S. GDP per capita) is when the USD has been weak. This is because a weak USD implies easier financial conditions for emerging markets: Capital flows increase searching for stronger currencies and returns, debt repayment is cheaper, and commodity prices move higher. Right now, the global economy is facing a weak(er) USD regime that has benefited Latin America, and that for various reasons might be expected to continue in the medium term.

The region is enjoying many other tailwinds as well. Commodity prices, and hence terms of trade for the region, are the highest they have been since the supercycle of the 2000s. Latin America has benefited from the global trade reconfiguration as it has been one of the few places in the world that has gained market share both in China and in the U.S. since 2016 when trade tensions started. This is due in part to the extraordinary geographic advantage that Latin America enjoys, being far away from geopolitical conflict, and its possession of large reserves of the minerals and commodities that a world in flux demands. The nearshoring of manufacturing finds the region ideally positioned. Macro management in the region has matured as the successful fight against post-pandemic inflation demonstrates, even ahead of other developed and emerging markets.

The political cycle is a tailwind as well with a turn towards governments that are more explicitly business-friendly and reform-oriented. The right-wing turn, additionally, better aligns the region with a U.S. that is more active in the region at a time when increased foreign investment and attention is being focused on the region.

Despite the many tailwinds that are aligning in favor of the region, growth is not yet accelerating. Growth remains resilient but low, stuck around the 2% trend, below potential and what is needed to escape the non-convergence trap. That is why we see the current period as one of opportunity but not one of a guaranteed era of success. The bull case does not rest on current growth, but on valuation, level of currencies, carry, terms of trade, policy credibility, and the serendipitous combination of favorable factors not seen in more than a decade. Opportunity is there but needs to be captured through action and reforms.

There are challenges of course. We discuss in depth the fiscal one, which in a number of countries requires forceful action amid political constraints and institutional rigidities. We do not discuss others, such as the complex security situation, which has been on top of mind for voters in the region.

Not all favorable circumstances will be in place forever, and some of them are beyond LatAm's control. That is, some of the tailwinds are cyclical, not structural, and some depend on external circumstances, not internal ones. However, across modern Latin American history it is hard to find episodes when a set of positive factors combine serendipitously to set the stage for a higher level of growth and convergence. The stakes for 660 million people living in the region, for investors leveraged to the region's future, and for future generations are high. It also underpins the political stability of the western hemisphere.

This Citi Research report digs deep into the current set of positive factors surrounding Latin America, discusses macro, trade, fiscal and productivity dimensions, and discusses investment implications across asset classes. We are proud to welcome the perspectives of the region's heads of Banking and Wealth as well to add to our view.

Latin America is in the right place, at the right time.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index is testing a breakout above a price ceiling that has capped several rallies since roughly 2014. The red dashed line marks resistance near 3,000, where advances stalled around 2017-19. The circled area shows the latest rally pushing back above that level.

The key question is whether 3,000 becomes a new support level, given the political tailwinds from recent elections that have shifted much of the continent to the right after years of failed progressive experiments.

The next big election to watch is Brazil (read the latest report).

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 19:40

Sinopec Sees China Oil Demand Falling 8.9% in 2026

Zero Hedge -

Sinopec Sees China Oil Demand Falling 8.9% in 2026

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

China’s Sinopec, the world’s top refiner by capacity, expects Chinese oil demand to drop by 8.9% in 2026 from a year earlier amid demand destruction from higher oil prices and the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption.

Oil demand in the world’s biggest crude oil importer is expected to drop by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average this year compared to last year, according to estimates by Sinopec’s research arm quoted by Reuters.

Gasoline demand is set for an 8.7% decline, while diesel consumption is expected to crash by 11.4%, Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute says.

The only petroleum product used in transportation that would see an increase is jet fuel, whose demand is expected to increase by 1.3% this year compared to 2025.

The high oil and fuel prices amid the Iran war accelerated the structural shift toward EVs this year, eating into the road transportation fuel demand.

China has managed the Strait of Hormuz crisis better than most expectations as it slashed its imports of crude oil and temporarily banned fuel exports in the spring and early summer.

The high oil prices destroyed some demand and sped up the adoption of EVs, which has been growing anyway in recent years, suppressing total oil demand even without blocked crude supplies in the Middle East.

Amid falling road fuel demand, Sinopec, or China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation as it is officially known, is looking to transform its business.

Sinopec will be allocating more capital to new energy and chemicals by the end of the decade to grow revenues and profits amid the lowest domestic fuel sales in China in nearly a decade.

In its first-half earnings release, Sinopec flagged falling domestic fuel sales, which have been weighing on the company’s earnings for two years now.

“Due to the dampening effect of high oil prices on demand and accelerated substitution by new energy, domestic refined oil products consumption declined by 8.6% year on year, among which gasoline decreased by 7.9%, diesel decreased by 11.5%, while jet fuel (kerosene) rose by 1.3% driven by holiday travel and the recovery of international routes,” Sinopec said in its press release.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/10/2026 - 19:15

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