Individual Economists

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture - 2 hours 27 min ago

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• How Bonds Ended the Civil War—and Led to the Rise of J.P. Morgan: The financial history of the Civil War reads like a thriller—government bonds, speculative fever, and the rise of the most powerful banker in American history. (Barron’s)

• Long-Term Money: Morgan Housel on the power of compounding and why most people can’t fathom how the world will look in 50 years. If you could show our ancestors a modern grocery store, they’d faint. (Collaborative Fund)

• My Quest to Solve Bitcoin’s Great Mystery: A reporter chases the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto and lands on Adam Back. The greatest pseudonymous act in financial history may finally have its face. Bitcoin’s creator has hidden behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto for 17 years. But a trail of clues buried deep in crypto lore led to a 55-year-old computer scientist named Adam Back. (New York Times)

• Long-Term Money If you could show any of these people a modern grocery store, they would faint from disbelief. They could not comprehend that the biggest challenge of grocery shopping is deciding which of the 19 brands of jelly to buy, or that in January you can buy papayas in Minnesota. But most shocking would be the pharmacy in the back, which they would find magical. And what would their response be? “You are so spoiled.” (Collaborative Fund).

• The creation of instant: coffee Instant coffee seems unremarkable. It’s just powder and hot water. But making it work took decades: Instant coffee seems unremarkable. It’s just powder and hot water. But making it work took decades. (Works In Progress)

• Finding the Cattle Queen: Steakhouse royalty, feminist icon, fungible tourism graphic—she deserves a proper title https://www.nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/finding-the-cattle-queen/

• Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal: The WSJ’s top tech columnist recounts how an AI system advised her to leave her job. A fascinating and unsettling window into how these tools are reshaping how people think about their careers. (Semafor)

• Snake Bros Keep Getting Bitten by Their Lethal Pets. Only Zoos Can Save Them Your venomous serpent bites you, and the clock is ticking. America’s zoo network is the last line of defense for social media’s deadliest hobby. Your venomous serpent bites you, and the clock is ticking. America’s zookeepers—and a cooler full of rare antivenom—are your best chance of survival. (Wired)

• The Hair-Loss Drug Rewriting the Rules of Masculinity: Finasteride isn’t just saving hairlines—it’s reshaping how men think about aging, vanity, and what they’re willing to swallow (literally) to hold onto youth. (New York Times)

• The World’s Best Destinations for Astrotourism in 2026: From nocturnal wildlife safaris to stargazing train rides, a dark sky expert shares her favorite astrotourism adventures around the world.. From nocturnal wildlife safaris to stargazing train rides, a dark sky expert shares her favorite astrotourism adventures around the world. (Outside)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group (PMG) and member of the Global Executive Committee. He helps oversee $5 trillion in client assets across systematic & discretionary strategies as well as directly overseeing PMG’s hedge funds platform. He also heads the BlackRock Investment Institute.

“Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern: 9 of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have had to do with relief over tariffs or Iran

Source: @CharlieBilello

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The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Mainstream Media Claims Roger Stone Persuaded Trump Not To Fire Tulsi Gabbard

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 5:40pm

Mainstream Media Claims Roger Stone Persuaded Trump Not To Fire Tulsi Gabbard

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

President Trump was reportedly on the verge of firing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard — until longtime adviser Roger Stone stepped in at the last minute.

According to an Axios report citing ‘advisors’, Trump had grown frustrated with Gabbard’s congressional testimony on threats to the U.S., in which she stopped short of a full-throated endorsement of the ongoing Iran conflict. The sources described the president polling other advisers on her performance and whether she should be replaced.

The drama unfolded after the high-profile resignation of Gabbard’s former adviser and counterterrorism director, Joe Kent, who publicly accused Israel of misleading the administration into war with Iran. Gabbard’s decision not to forcefully condemn Kent during her testimony only added fuel to the fire.

How Roger Stone persuaded Trump not to fire Tulsi Gabbard https://t.co/MObT2trC2d
— Axios (@axios) April 10, 2026

In a private meeting, Trump “scolded” Gabbard and questioned her loyalty, according to two sources. Others described the exchange as sarcastic but ultimately friendly.

Yet it was Roger Stone — Trump’s friend and political confidant since 1979 — who ultimately changed the president’s mind, according to the report.

“Roger sealed the deal. He saved Tulsi,” a source familiar with Trump’s thinking told Axios.

Stone laid out four key arguments for keeping her, according to people who spoke with him. Gabbard had remained loyal, delivered her testimony in a professional manner, and never publicly disputed the president. Unlike Kent, she showed no signs of resigning and did not deserve to be fired preemptively. Dismissing her would trigger a damaging news cycle and turn her into a martyr among segments of the base uneasy about the war. And firing her could give her credibility with MAGA skeptics, potentially positioning her as a future GOP presidential contender — one who might challenge Vice President JD Vance in key early primary states like New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Stone himself confirmed his intervention on X, writing: “Fortunately, I acted in time.”

Last Monday Loomer tried to convince the President that Tulsi Gabbard was about to resign- in an effort to get Trump to move preemptively to fire her. The whole thing was a hoax. Fortunately, I acted in time. When I called Loomer out on her lie is when she became unhinged pic.twitter.com/Qbg2GpI6C2
— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) April 9, 2026

Stone’s comments come against a backdrop of a verbal feud with Laura Loomer.

.@LauraLoomet You planted the idea that Tulsi was about to resign in an effort to stampede the president Into firing her but you got out maneuvered . Tulsi had no intention of resigning and has done nothing to merit her termination .

I doubt that Tulsi will run in 2028 and I… https://t.co/XiHZABLA4y
— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) April 10, 2026

.@LauraLoomer persuaded the president that Tulsi Gabbard was about to resign and should be preemptively fired. It was another one of her lies. The dirty trick didn't workhttps://t.co/TKqTjx7ezX
— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) April 10, 2026

Loomer took to X to declare: “Tulsi is done. The White House wants zero drama so they gave her the option to resign, but … she will do a lot of damage if she is given the choice to resign because she will launch her 2028 presidential campaign.”

A Gabbard ally fired back, calling Loomer’s claim “absolutely false” and noting that Trump has repeatedly stood by his DNI.

The White House pushed back hard on any notion of discord. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated: “President Trump believes Tulsi Gabbard is doing an excellent job on behalf of the administration. She is a key member of his national security team.”

An ODNI spokesperson added that Gabbard “remains committed to fulfilling the responsibilities the President placed in her to protect the safety, security and freedom of the American people. She will continue to work tirelessly on behalf of President Trump’s agenda.”

The episode highlights the intense behind-the-scenes maneuvering inside the Trump administration as it navigates foreign policy challenges and internal loyalty tests. Gabbard, a combat veteran and longtime skeptic of endless Middle East entanglements, was brought on board for her outsider perspective and America First instincts. Yet her independent streak has created friction with hardliners who demand unwavering alignment on every national security issue.

Stone’s apparent intervention appears to have preserved stability — at least for now. In an administration that prizes loyalty above almost everything else, the veteran political operative reminded the president why keeping experienced voices who deliver results without grandstanding serves the country better than another round of public bloodletting.

This isn’t the first time Gabbard has faced scrutiny. Tensions surfaced last year over her decision to pull certain security clearances without full consultation and her public warnings about nuclear risks. She was also notably sidelined from some key pre-war discussions.

Still, the president’s ultimate decision to retain her — guided by Stone’s counsel — sends a clear signal: personnel moves will be deliberate, not reactive. In a high-stakes environment where every leak and resignation threatens to become a headline, avoiding unnecessary drama may prove the smarter long-term play.

The media’s breathless coverage of the near-firing only underscores how quickly internal deliberations become public fodder. Yet the outcome reinforces a core truth in this administration: seasoned advisers who understand Trump’s instincts can still shape decisions behind closed doors, protecting both the president’s agenda and the team executing it.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 17:40

Xi Hosts Taiwan Opposition Leader In Rare Meeting: 'We Will Not Become A Chessboard For External Intervention'

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 5:20pm

Xi Hosts Taiwan Opposition Leader In Rare Meeting: 'We Will Not Become A Chessboard For External Intervention'

All eyes remain fixated on the impending US-Iran talks in Islamabad, but big things are also happening Friday in Beijing, and they have direct impact on another potential global flashpoint: Taiwan.

While Washington potentially gets bogged down in another Middle East quagmire (if talks don't go well and there's no offramp), Chinese leader Xi Jinping has welcomed the leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party for a rare direct meeting in the Chinese capital.

The symbolism of the timing can't be missed, as Xi invited Nationalist Party Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun to China ahead of the planned big mid-May summit with President Trump in which the Chinese leader could continue a push to dilute Washington's support for Taiwan.

This is all about steering self-ruled Taiwan into China's orbit, and Beijing asserting political power to do so in the face of the Trump administration, after China has long stated its official policy of reunification to the mainland through political means.

By hosting Cheng, Xi is also presenting himself as a force for stability who can be entrusted with ensuring peace - the WSJ has commented - and we might add with the image of 'Taiwan's willing participation' - at a moment the Middle East is on fire largely as a result of American policy and quickness to result to force and surprise attacks.

Xi and Cheng expressed a desire for a "peaceful" resolution to the many decades-long Taiwan crisis, and posed for photos at the Great Hall of the People. They engaged in public remarks but also held a private, closed-door meeting.

Cheng emphasized in words to reporters that Chinese and Taiwanese officials should work to "transcend political confrontation and mutual hostility." She stated, "Instead, it should become a strait that connects family ties, civilization and hope – a symbol of peace jointly safeguarded by Chinese people on both sides."

Her rhetoric was tinged with familiar Chinese Communist Party talking points as she heralded China's supposed eradicating of absolute poverty while seeking to achieve the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".

Among the more notable points were related to 'external intervention' - a not so stealthy reference to American power projection in southeast Asia:

"It is hoped that through the tireless efforts of our two parties, the Taiwan Strait will no longer be a focus of potential conflict, nor will it become a chessboard for external intervention," she said.

Xi and Cheng both agreed that her Kuomintang party is ready to work with Beijing to achieve peace across the Taiwan Strait.

According to a backgrounder:

Cheng is the highest-ranking Taiwanese leader to meet Xi since President Ma Ying-jeou talked with the Chinese leader in Singapore in 2015. They met again in China two years ago when Ma was a private citizen.

Both Cheng and Ma are members of the Kuomintang, the conservative-leaning Taiwanese political party that advocates for greater engagement with China by Taiwan’s self-ruled democratic government.

As for Xi, he held up Taiwan and China's shared history and culture, stating that "people of all ethnic groups, including Taiwanese compatriots," had "jointly written the glorious history of China."

Cheng Li-wun, Leader of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping today:

This is a choice between peace and war. pic.twitter.com/i33R9UWx3l
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 10, 2026

Xi stressed, "All sons and daughters of China share the same Chinese roots and the same Chinese spirit. This originates from blood ties and is deeply embedded in our history – it cannot be forgotten and cannot be erased."

Taiwan's ruling government and officials have meanwhile complained of the Friday meeting, "It basically gives China a chance to bully Taiwan behind closed doors."

And Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi said Friday that China can send a clear message of peace but only if it "stops sending warplanes and ships around Taiwan now."

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 17:20

White House Warns Staff As Iran Bets Add To Growing Insider-Trading Concerns

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 5:00pm

White House Warns Staff As Iran Bets Add To Growing Insider-Trading Concerns

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

The White House warned staff against improperly using confidential information to place bets in futures markets after suspicious oil trades ahead of President Donald Trump’s March 23 Iran announcement drew scrutiny, according to Reuters.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the White House sent the internal email on March 24, a day after Trump ordered a five-day delay in attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

The warning followed a roughly $500 million bet on Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures placed in a one-minute burst shortly before Trump’s March 23 announcement, according to Reuters calculations based on exchange data. Oil prices fell about 15% after the policy shift.

The episode has intensified scrutiny of whether officials or politically connected traders could profit from nonpublic information tied to military or policy decisions. It has also added momentum to a broader push in Washington to tighten rules around prediction-market trading.

The STOCK Act amendment in the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) prohibits federal officials, congress members, executive staff and judicial officers from using non-public information derived from their positions to trade commodity, futures or options markets. The amendment was signed into law on April 4, 2012.

Cointelegraph has approached the White House for a copy of the internal email.

Lawmakers respond to prediction market insider trading concerns

Lawmakers have also stepped up scrutiny of prediction markets, where well-timed bets tied to military and political events have raised similar concerns about the misuse of privileged information.

Polymarket traders netted around $1 million by accurately betting when the US would strike Iran.

In response to the concerns, Congressman Adrian Smith and Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski introduced the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act) on March 25, a bipartisan bill seeking to ban members of Congress and federal officials from prediction market trading.

On March 26, US lawmakers Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis and Adam Schiff unveiled the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, a bill aimed at curbing prediction market insider trading by government officials.

End Prediction Market Corruption Act. Source: Merkley.senate.gov

The same day, Senator Jeff Merkley introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, seeking to ban event contract trading by government officials with “material non-public information,” including the president, vice president and members of Congress.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 17:00

Half-Way Into Fiscal 2026, US Budget Deficit Is 11% Lower Than 2025, But It's About To Get Much Worse

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 4:40pm

Half-Way Into Fiscal 2026, US Budget Deficit Is 11% Lower Than 2025, But It's About To Get Much Worse

While not as dire as previous years, the US budget deficit remains a ticking time bomb.

There was some good news and some not so good news, when the Treasury reported the monthly revenue and outlays for the month of March.

First the good news: The US federal government reported that the March budget deficit rose $4 billion or 2% to $164.1 billion from $160.5 billion a year ago, and higher than the $153.3BN median estimate, as ‌new individual and corporate tax breaks pushed refunds sharply higher, while relief payments to farmers also grew.

March tax receipts totaled $385 billion, up $17 billion or 4.7% from ⁠March 2025...

... which translated into $413 billion on a 6 month moving average basis, roughly where it has been for the past few years.

Outlays totaled $549 billion, up $21 billion, or 3.9% higher from a year earlier.

Unlike tax revenues, outlays were at the high end of the 6 month moving average, at just over $608 billion.

One can see how the moving averages between revenue and spending diverge in the chart below.

On a cumulative basis, six months into fiscal 2026 (which ends in September), the US budget deficit was $1.169 trillion, down about 11% from the $1.307 trillion accrued through this point in 2025. Aside from the crisis 2021 year, this was the third biggest cumulative budget deficit in US history half-way into the fiscal year.

Another way of visualizing the deficit, here it is broken down by main sources of revenue and outlays.

Customs duty collections softened in the month following the US Supreme ‌Court's ⁠annulment of President Donald Trump's broadest global tariffs imposed under an emergency law. Customs receipts totaled $22.2 billion in March, down from $26.6 billion in February and monthly totals in the low $30 ⁠billion range late last year, but up from $8.2 billion in March 2025.

The drop in tariff collections is seen clearly on the next chart.

Now that bad news: the March total was an accounting gimmick. After accounting for calendar-related ⁠adjustments of benefit payments, the March deficit would have been $250 billion, substantially higher than the year ago number.

Worse, the monthly budget data did not show a major increase in ⁠spending on the Iran war, with military and defense program outlays rising just $2 billion or 3% to $65 billion during the conflict's first month. That means that the April (and onward) deficits will be sharply higher on the billions in war spending that will now have to go through the US income (technically loss) statement.

Putting it all together, the big picture emerges, one where outlays on most categories continues to rise - certainly defense, social security and health - but as a result of the drop in rates in the past 1.5 years, the gross interest expense on US debt has been relatively flat in 2026, and in March it was $1.26 trillion, or where it started the year.

Still, at $1.3 trillion in gross interest expense, the amount of money the US spends on debt interest is now remains the 2nd highest spending category and will likely surpass Social Security spending, at just over $1.6 trillion, should either rates go up again or once total US debt surges as it certainly will in the next recession.

Finally, while total deficit may be lower than it was in the prior year, it is probably safe to say that gross interest will keep rising every year until the end: indeed, as shown below, at $623 billion for the first six months of fiscal 2025, cumulative gross interest was 7% higher than the $582 billion for the same period in 2025.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 16:40

"We're Really In Uncharted Territory..."

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 4:20pm

"We're Really In Uncharted Territory..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Games Nations Play

“I am sick of serving in Congress with immoral freaks who abuse their office and bring dishonor to the institution.”

- Rep Anna Paulina Luna

You have entered the season of chaos. Better get used to it. The center quit holding a long time ago, and now even the margins are quivering. Buckle up and batten down. It will probably get rougher and weirder. Struggle is everywhere.

Iran Declares Victory

Will Iran reopen Hormuz or not? They really only have days to stop playing games with the rest of the world. It will soon be clear whether they can negotiate in good faith. It doesn’t look good. Their theology of jihad contains a permission structure for lying to their enemies to accomplish their aim: which is, to annihilate the hated infidels (that’s us).

That is the reason for this conflict, by the way. They have promised over and over again to destroy us. Why not believe them? The thousand pounds of enriched uranium is still stashed somewhere in the country. It has only one purpose, to be made into bombs, and they’re not allowed to keep it. The message is pretty simple, but they don’t seem to get it. There are probably big fissures between the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), the secular government of President Masoud Pezeshkian, and the regular army (the Artesh). Are they even able to communicate with each other? You and I don’t know, though Mr. Trump and his people might know.

I doubt that Mr. Trump wanted to drop the hammer on Iran last Tuesday, as he vowed to do. But it might eventually be necessary to turn the lights off there if they don’t stop screwing around.

Does Iran have an inexhaustible supply of missiles and drones, as some observers seem to believe? I doubt it. We blew up their factories. We have the option and the ability to track down whatever they’ve got left in storage and destroy it. One way or another, we are going to end Iran’s ability to be a problem for the rest of the world.

The American Left (the Democratic Party) would like nothing better than for Iran to thumb its nose at the rest of the world (at us especially), because the American Left has launched its own sort of Jihad.

It has been waging war on the rest of us in America for ten years, and you can be sure that, as springtime blossoms over the land, they intend to ramp up the action.

Expect Act One on May Day.

That is the day that the Left customarily celebrates socialism. It started off decades ago as a holiday for industrial workers. There are few enough of those left in the USA these days that they constitute less than a critical mass of all American workers. They have been replaced by grifters, fraudsters, and other parasites looking to get money-for-nothing from the rest of us without working at all. That is the Democratic Party’s raison d’être. They are now strictly a racketeering operation.

The Left will stage widespread demonstrations around the country on May Day. The several No Kings demos in cold weather were rehearsals for the spring and summer fun. You can expect the May Day action to turn into riots. Antifa is still very much at the Party’s beck and call for sparking that sort of thing. The idea behind it is to provoke the president into reacting forcefully to the Left’s riots so they can brand him “a tyrant.” If May Day is insufficient to accomplish that, wait until the extravaganzas around the Fourth of July when the USA ostensibly gets to celebrate our 250th birthday as a republic.

Considering that the Republican majority in Congress was unwilling to pass an election reform bill, it is also a fairly sure thing that sometime between May Day and July Fourth the president will have to issue an executive order setting out requirements for a free and fair election: voter ID, citizens only, highly restricted and tightly regulated mail-in voting, no electronic ballot-counting machines, etc.

That alone will inflame the Left, who cannot win elections without ballot fraud.

Of course, Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, Mary McCord, and the lawfare ninjas will file lawsuits to negate any executive order on election procedures, and their select federal judges will issue injunctions against it. Which will provoke Mr. Trump, in turn, to go full Abe Lincoln on them and declare an insurgency requiring extraordinary executive powers to overcome the Left’s ploys — just as Mr. Lincoln had to overcome the traitorous Confederates of his time. That will get Mr. Trump branded “a super-tyrant.”

From that point, we’re really in uncharted territory. But, it being the nation’s 250th birthday and all, a great majority of US citizens may be in no mood by then for any further pranking and punking by the Left. They will be more than eager for trials, perhaps by military tribunals if the corrupt federal judiciary proves intractable.

This is the kind of thing we have to look forward to as 2026 keeps rolling out. But meanwhile, events might get even hotter over in Euroland. The joint is primed to blow. They’ve had enough jihad, too, and enough of the retarded political leadership that allowed it to be inflicted on the people of Europe. It’s already started. Ireland is about to go up in flames, a case of the government’s utter betrayal of the people. After Ireland, cue the United Kingdom. They’ve had enough of hostile Islam and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. It’s going to be a long, hot summer.

They don’t call this the Fourth Turning for nothing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 16:20

Hunter Biden Challenges Trump Brothers To Cage Match

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 3:40pm

Hunter Biden Challenges Trump Brothers To Cage Match

As everyone knows by now, the first rule of fight club is... you don't talk about fight club...

But it appears Hunter Biden could not help himself as the son of former President Joe Biden, on April 9 publicly challenged Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump - the eldest sons of President Donald Trump - to a cage match.

View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Channel Five (@channel5)

The challenge emerged in a video posted to the Instagram page of conservative social media commentator Andrew Callaghan’s Channel 5 account.

“I just got a call from Andrew Callaghan,” Biden said in the video.

“He asked me to come out on the Channel 5 Carnival Tour at the end of the month. I think we start in Phoenix, then we go to San Diego, and we end in Albuquerque. I think he’s trying to organize a cage match. Me versus Eric and Don Jr. I told him I'd do it—100 percent in if he can pull it off. And if he can’t, I’m still coming.”

As Kimberley Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, the challenge lands against the backdrop of the nation’s 250th independence celebrations, which already include an actual professional fight match at the White House.

The White House is set to host a UFC match on June 14, a White House official confirmed to The Epoch Times. Hunter Biden is not expected to participate in that event.

Trump first floated the idea of a White House UFC fight in July 2025, announcing plans at a “Salute to America” event in Des Moines, Iowa, that the administration intended to mark the country’s 250th anniversary with a year’s worth of events.

UFC CEO Dana White, a close friend of Trump, is overseeing the June event, which is headlined by professional fighters, though the competitors have yet to be announced.

The cage match proposal arrives roughly 16 months after former President Joe Biden issued his son a full and unconditional pardon on Dec. 1, 2024, covering any federal offenses between Jan. 1, 2014, and Dec. 1, 2024.

Hunter Biden had been convicted on federal gun charges and pleaded guilty to nine counts of federal tax evasion. He was facing up to 17 years in prison and $1.3 million in fines.

The elder Biden, who had previously said he would not pardon his son if convicted, argued that “raw politics” had corrupted the judicial process. Then-President-elect Donald Trump called the pardon a “miscarriage of justice.”

The proposed fight also echoes a 2023 cage match challenge between tech giants Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, though it ultimately never happened.

Neither the Trump Organization nor the White House immediately responded to requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 15:40

Oil Price Shock Drives 140% Surge In China's EV Exports To Record High

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 3:20pm

Oil Price Shock Drives 140% Surge In China's EV Exports To Record High

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,

Chinese electric vehicle exports soared by 140% to a record high in March as the fuel price shock drove consumers back to EVs.

BYD electric vehicles bound for export in China.Source: AFP/Getty Images

China exported as many as 349,000 electric vehicles last month, a record high number of any month ever, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association cited by Bloomberg.

Drivers in Asia Pacific, Europe, and the United States started searching for EVs and hybrid options amid soaring fuel prices, following the war in the Middle East. The conflict has trapped more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude supply at the Strait of Hormuz and hiked international oil prices to $100 per barrel and above, up from $70 before the conflict began.

As a result of the rapidly rising fuel prices, consumers are increasingly exploring EV options.

Showrooms across Asia, where the fuel crisis was first felt, are bustling with interest from consumers willing to buy EVs.

In Australia, the wait times for EVs have soared to by several months, the Australian Financial Review reports.

BYD, China's biggest EV manufacturer and top exporter, has said that the average wait time for its top-selling Sealion 7 and Atto 2 models has blown out to between two and three months, up from two to three weeks.

Autotrader, the UK's largest automotive marketplace, reported a surge in EV interest since the first bombing on Iran on February 28.

“Our data shows a sharp rise in both new and used EV leads since the war began at the end of February, with used EV enquiries hitting record levels on the Autotrader marketplace,” Ian Plummer, Chief Customer Officer at Autotrader, said at the end of March.

“When people feel that traditional fuel is vulnerable to global events, the appeal of electric becomes far stronger so the conflict is acting as a significant catalyst for EV interest across the UK market.”

Interest in EVs in the United States is also rising, as gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon nationwide. Yet, Morgan Stanley expects that an actual increased demand for EVs and hybrids in the U.S. could take place after about six consecutive months of high gasoline prices.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 15:20

Kamala Harris Teases 2028 Presidential Run: "I'm Thinking About It"

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 3:00pm

Kamala Harris Teases 2028 Presidential Run: "I'm Thinking About It"

Former Vice President Kamala Harris has openly teased the possibility of running for president again in 2028 - telling an audience at the National Action Network’s annual convention in New York City alongside Rev. Al Sharpton: "Listen, I might, I might. I’m thinking about it. I’m thinking about it."

The crowd erupted into chants of "Run again!" as Harris spoke. "I served for four years being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States," she told the audience. "I spent countless hours in my West Wing office, footsteps away from the Oval Office. I spent countless hours in the Oval Office, in the Situation Room. I know what the job is. And I know what it requires.” She added that recent travels across the country, especially in the South, had reinforced her view that “the status quo is not working, and hasn’t been working for a lot of people for a long time."

This isn't her first hint...

October 2025 (BBC Interview): In her first UK interview after the election, Harris gave her strongest early signal yet. Asked if she could envision herself as president one day—and whether America would soon elect a female president—she replied “possibly.” She declared, “I am not done. I have lived my entire career as a life of service and it’s in my bones.”
October 2025 (Kara Swisher Interview): On stage with journalist Kara Swisher, Harris shrugged off a question about 2028 with “Maybe. Maybe not,” drawing cheers from the crowd.
February 2026 (Sharon McMahon Interview): While promoting her memoir 107 Days—which chronicles the intense final stretch of her 2024 campaign—Harris told author Sharon McMahon she “hasn’t decided” on another run but admitted, “I might,” when pressed on whether she was still thinking about it. McMahon noted the book left the impression that Harris “wants” to run again.

Odds of another run currently sit at 11%... watch this one:

//--> //--> Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
Yes 11% · No 89%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Harris’s 2024 bid as the Democratic nominee came after President Joe Biden stepped aside. She lost decisively to Trump but has remained an active voice in Democratic politics, criticizing the current administration’s foreign policy—particularly the war with Iran, which she has called a “choice” that “keeps me up at night.”

She is already scheduled to appear at Democratic events in multiple Southern states this month, keeping her profile high as the party looks ahead. While she leads many early 2028 primary polls among Democrats, the field is expected to be crowded, and some party insiders have expressed private concerns about a repeat candidacy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 15:00

D.C. Economy "Under Strain," Faces Biggest Spending Cuts Since Great Recession

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 2:40pm

D.C. Economy "Under Strain," Faces Biggest Spending Cuts Since Great Recession

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its state-level real gross domestic product data on Thursday, revealing a sharply uneven economic landscape in the fourth quarter of 2025, with boom times in North Dakota contrasting with a sharp slowdown spreading across the Mid-Atlantic, especially in Washington, D.C.

"From a regional perspective, real GDP increased in 35 states in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the percent change at an annual rate ranging from 3.8 percent in North Dakota to –8.3 percent in the District of Columbia and remaining unchanged in Indiana and Maine," BEA wrote in the report.

The fourth quarter coincided with a 43-day government shutdown from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, a disruption that likely had an outsized effect on the Washington, D.C. economy given the metro area's heavy reliance on federal workers, procurement, contracting activity, and the broader consumer spending tied to government.

But let's not forget that the D.C. economy is already dealing with a spending slowdown linked to the Trump administration's move to clean up waste, fraud, and abuse. To this day, DOGE units are still operating in agencies and trimming the DEI fat.

Yesim Sayin, executive director of the think tank D.C. Policy Center, was quoted by the Washington Post late in 2025 as warning about recession risks in the D.C. economy.

"Death by a thousand cuts," Sayin told WaPo. She said the significance of 2025 lies less in any single data point and more in the earthquake it has delivered to the very bedrock of the city's long-term outlook.

"This isn't just a blip," Sayin said. "What this year has done is change the trajectory of the District's economy."

According to the Cato Institute, the 2025 federal workforce reduction was the largest peacetime reduction ever. That drop was 9% of the total workforce.

D.C. Policy Center's latest report warns that D.C. has entered a slower-growth era and can no longer rely on population gains, employment growth, and rising revenues to offset inefficiencies and soaring costs.

The think tank warned:

The city’s current fiscal framework was built during a period of steady growth, when rising population, expanding employment, and increasing property values supported reliable revenue gains. That environment has weakened but spending commitments have not adjusted at the same pace. Recent budgets reflect this tension clearly. In this fiscal year (FY 2026), roughly 10 percent of approved general fund spending—about $1.4 billion—is being financed with past savings rather than with recurring revenues. At the same time, the adopted financial plan assumes a reduction of $839 million in FY 2027 spending, a cut of more than six percent. [4] The District has not faced adjustments of this scale since the Great Recession.

This is a system under strain. Growth has not returned, as hoped, to ease these pressures, and as revenues flatten in real terms, the city faces increasingly constrained choices.

For years, the Mid-Atlantic economy rode a wave of federal spending that poured into local economies from Northern Virginia to Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, Maryland, and into Delaware, helping sustain an unbalanced economy heavily tilted toward government.

Now, as growth slows and residents and businesses leave, the region's political elites - ruled by Democratic Party queens and kings in their 'DEI Kingdoms' - are facing hard realities: higher taxes will only trigger a greater exodus and spark even more backlash from both sides of the political aisle.

The road to political change in the Mid-Atlantic was accelerated by the Trump administration's DOGE, which sought to eliminate fraud, waste, and abuse across many agencies, including USAID.

We'll leave you with a message from Dean Woodley Ball, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation, a Policy Fellow at Fathom, and Visiting Fellow at Heritage Foundation...

My plan is to leave DC for Virginia before the next mayor is sworn in, or shortly after at the very least.

DC is incredibly vulnerable. It has the following major defects:

1. An incompetent and corrupt government that does not provide basic services effectively

2. A… https://t.co/n3gXenwrZX
— Dean W. Ball (@deanwball) April 10, 2026

"My plan is to leave DC for Virginia before the next mayor is sworn in, or shortly after at the very least."

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 14:40

CIA To Integrate AI 'Co-Workers' To Process Intelligence, Catch Spies

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 2:20pm

CIA To Integrate AI 'Co-Workers' To Process Intelligence, Catch Spies

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

The US Central Intelligence Agency said it will embed “AI co-workers” directly into its analytics platforms to assist analysts with detecting spies and anticipating hostile moves by foreign adversaries.

“Within the next couple of years, we will have AI co-workers built into all of the agency’s analytic platforms — a kind of classified version of generative AI that will help our analysts with basic tasks,” CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis reportedly said on Thursday during an event hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project in Washington, DC.

According to Politico, Ellis said the AI co-workers would assist intelligence officers with drafting key judgments, testing analytical conclusions and identifying trends in intelligence that the agency gathers from abroad.

However, he said humans would continue to make the “key decisions.”

Michael Ellis (right) speaking with Anthony Pompliano (left) about Bitcoin and AI’s role in US national security in May: Source: Anthony Pompliano

The CIA’s AI plans come amid a feud between the US Department of Defense and AI firm Anthropic. Despite having a $200 million contract with the Department of Defense, Anthropic prevented the use of its flagship AI product, Claude, for mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons.

US President Donald Trump ordered all federal agencies to immediately cease using Anthropic's technology in March, while the Department of Defense declared Anthropic a supply chain risk.

The parties remain locked in a legal dispute over the designation, with a US appeals court on Wednesday denying Anthropic’s emergency request to temporarily pause the label.

While Ellis didn’t point out Anthropic, he said the CIA “cannot allow the whims of a single company” to constrain its capabilities.

The CIA has already adopted AI for other intelligence tasks, having tested about 300 AI projects last year to “bring new capabilities to our mission,” such as processing large data sets and language translation, Ellis said.

Ellis also noted that the CIA recently created its first intelligence report with AI while predicting that AI’s role in the agency’s work would continue to grow.

A major motivation for the CIA is to stay ahead of China, Ellis said, noting that the once-large gap between the US and China has narrowed significantly.

“Five to ten years ago, China was nowhere near America, in terms of technological innovation,” Ellis said. “That’s just not true today.”

Ellis likes the transparency of Bitcoin, crypto

In May, Ellis said Bitcoin and crypto were matters of national security, adding that the agency reviews blockchain data to support its counterintelligence operations.

“It’s another area of technological competition where we need to make sure the United States is well-positioned against China and other adversaries.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 14:20

Contempt Of Court: Justice Sotomayor Suggests Justice Kavanaugh Is An Uninformed Elitist

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 1:40pm

Contempt Of Court: Justice Sotomayor Suggests Justice Kavanaugh Is An Uninformed Elitist

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Justice Brett Kavanaugh is accustomed to unrelenting personal attacks from the left that began with his nomination to the Court. This week, however, the ad hominem insults came not from cable programs but a colleague.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor used an appearance at the University of Kansas School of Law to level a personal dig at Kavanaugh as an out-of-touch elitist.

I have long criticized the growing number of public statements by justices on controversial subjects and cases, including Justice Sotomayor. However, this appearance represented a new low in lashing out at a colleague as effectively blinded by his own privilege.

In her comments, Sotomayor raised Kavanaugh’s concurrence in Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo:

“I had a colleague in that case who wrote, you know, these are only temporary stops. This is from a man whose parents were professionals. And probably doesn’t really know any person who works by the hour… Those hours that they took you away, nobody’s paying that person. And that makes a difference between a meal for him and his kids that night and maybe just cold supper…”

She then referred to her own background as giving her experience and knowledge that is apparently missing in colleagues such as Kavanaugh:

“Life experiences teach you to think more broadly and to see things others may not. And when I have a moment where I can express that on behalf of people who have no other voice, then I’m being given a very rare privilege.”

It was reminiscent of Sotomayor’s reference to being a “wise Latina” on the bench. While on the Second Circuit, then-judge Sotomayor explained that her life experiences offered a “difference” not shared by other colleagues. In a 2001 lecture at Berkeley law school titled “A Latina Judge’s Voice,” she heralded the difference that “our gender and national origins may and will make … in our judging.”

In her latest comments, she is suggesting that her interaction with hourly wage earners allows her to see things that Kavanaugh does not in these cases. The claim that she “sees things that others may not” suggests that the privileged, insulated existence of Kavanaugh blinds him to the true merits of cases before him.

Notably, Justice Sotomayor also told the students and faculty that she has a friendship with most, but apparently not all, of her colleagues:

“I dare say that with virtually all of them, I certainly have a civil relationship. And with many of them, I think I dare say that I have a friendship,”

After this speech, I would not expect a social media friend invite from Kavanaugh.

It is true that Kavanaugh went to elite schools, but so did Sotomayor, who graduated from Princeton and Yale.

Both of Kavanaugh’s parents were indeed lawyers, but it is odd that Sotomayor would miss the compelling story of his mother, Martha. She was a history professor who went to law school while raising a family and eventually became one of the minority of women on the state bench. That would also seem to be “gender origins” that Sotomayor previously cited as key in her view of impactful judging.

However, what was most striking was Sotomayor’s backhanded suggestion that Kavanaugh “doesn’t really know any person who works by the hour.” The suggestion is that he has avoided — and continues to avoid — interactions with people who get paid on an hourly basis — while she is more inclusive in her circle of friends. It is obviously false, but more importantly, petty and unfair.

The attack suggests that, while she is a “wise Latina,” Kavanaugh is a privileged prig on the Court. The fact is that many blue-collar (if not most) workers identify more with aspects of Kavanaugh’s jurisprudence. At a minimum, over half of the country is more likely to embrace his approach than that of Justice Sotomayor, who has been criticized for her comments in oral argument on issues ranging from abortion to puberty blockers to COVID restrictions.

Justice Kavanaugh has distinguished himself in public service, including work with the homeless.

Justice Sotomayor has repeatedly raised eyebrows with her comments off the bench, including seemingly calling on lawyers and students to join in a political campaign to change abortion laws.

In her favor, Justice Sotomayor has also defended colleagues like Justice Clarence Thomas, explained the reasonable disagreements among the justices, and opposed rationales on the left for packing the court. She is not someone who I view as gratuitously rude or cruel. I believe that she values collegiality and the Court as an institution. However, this was another injudicious moment during public events.

There is a wide chasm between the jurisprudence of these two justices. However, that difference is due to fundamental and principled differences in how courts should approach constitutional and statutory interpretation.

Yet, these comments were a disturbing departure from the tradition of collegiality and civility on the court. It was unfair and unwarranted. Hopefully, Justice Sotomayor will take an upcoming occasion during her speaking tour to withdraw the comment.

That would be the “wise” thing to do.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 13:40

Pull-Forward Demand Boosts PC Shipments Amid Memory Crunch Woes

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 1:20pm

Pull-Forward Demand Boosts PC Shipments Amid Memory Crunch Woes

The latest snapshot of the global PC market, from International Data Corporation's first-quarter shipment tracker, shows units rising 2.5% year over year to 65.6 million.

"Despite deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and memory shortage issues, the PC market recorded another quarter of positive growth," IDC wrote in the report published on Thursday morning.

IDC said last quarter's growth was "mostly fueled by the anticipation of rising component prices, Windows 10 migration, and new product introductions."

Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice president at IDC, noted, "The strength of every PC vendor's supply chain and ability to access core components, such as memory, will be tested," adding, "IDC believes that demand will be met by PC vendors who have best secured access to memory and have a device portfolio capable of addressing all price tiers of the market."

Here are the key 1Q26 numbers on global PC shipments:

1Q26 Regional Shipments:

IDC estimates industry PC shipments of 65.6 mn grew +2.5% year over year. Global growth was driven by EMEA (+7.4% year over year) and Asia/Pacific (+4.3% year over year), while Americas was down (-3.3% year over year v. +4% in C4Q25). IDC PC unit shipments also include workstations.

1Q26 Vendor Market Share:

IDC estimates that Lenovo, Dell, Apple, and ASUS grew ahead of the market, while HP lagged. Specifically, Lenovo shipments grew 8.6% (25% share), Dell shipments grew +7.7% (16% share), Apple shipments grew +9% (9.5% share), and ASUS shipments grew 17% (7% share), while HP units declined -4.9% (18.5% share).

IDC estimates 1Q26 PC shipments (via Goldman):

Goldman analyst Katherine Murphy commented on IDC's report and agreed that much of the PC growth in the first quarter was attributed to "a pull-forward ahead of anticipated price increases."

The pull-forward in PC shipments comes as little surprise, given that industry insiders warned consumers in late January to buy devices heavily dependent on memory before the shortage worsened. However, in recent weeks, "Google's DeepSeek moment" appears to have forced memory stick hoarders to dump supply onto the market, pushing prices lower.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 13:20

Only Iran "Friendly" Ships Allowed Transit Through Strait, As Tankers Pile Up Near Hormuz, Waiting To Cross

Zero Hedge - April 10, 2026 - 12:00pm

Only Iran "Friendly" Ships Allowed Transit Through Strait, As Tankers Pile Up Near Hormuz, Waiting To Cross

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely limited, with transits over the past 24 hours consisting almost exclusively of ships "friendly" to Iran, including Chinese and Russian vessels. Meanwhile, those expecting the ceasefire to unblock Hormuz have actually seen the opposite: traffic through the strait, which ticked up at the weekend, has since slowed further.

Several fully-laden supertankers have moved toward the waterway in the past two days, but haven’t made the crossing out of the Persian Gulf, despite a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect this week.

Unless anything changes, this weekend's ceasefire negotiations will be very short: the US has said the truce is conditional on Iran unblocking Hormuz. Yet since Thursday morning, just nine ships out of the roughly 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, have been observed passing through the strait, with five heading out of the gulf and four going in the opposite direction.

Among the most important was the Suezmax oil tanker Tour 2, hauling about 1 million barrels of Iranian crude out of the waterway. The Russian flagged supertanker Arhimeda moved in the opposite direction toward Iran’s export terminal at Kharg Island.

In a sign of some modest optimism, several oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf are anchoring near the approach to the strait, likely in order to be among the first to get underway as soon as the waterway opens up. Yet even as the ceasefire has pushed shipowners to begin considering options, most say conditions are still too unclear to attempt an exit.

Two Japanese oil tankers - itching with anticipation to get the hell out - left the waters off Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura on Thursday to move closer to the strait. The Mayasan and Yakumosan, both very-large carriers each hauling around 2 million barrels of crude, began sailing east late Thursday from waters off Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, where they have been since mid-March. The Sea Condor, a Greek-flagged products tanker that loaded in Kuwait, was also moving east in the direction of Hormuz.

Mayasan sailed into the gulf a few days before war broke out on Feb. 28, ship-tracking data show. It picked up crude from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in late February. It is indicating Tomakomai, a port in northern Japan, as its destination. Yakumosan entered the gulf in late February, and picked up a cargo of Qatari crude from a floating storage vessel in early March. It then soon took another load from Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah, before idling for a few weeks off Ras Tanura. It is signaling a mustering point off Das Island in the United Arab Emirates as its destination.

The Japanese ships sailing east on Friday have links to Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., a major Japanese shipowner and key energy player. While the company extracted at least one vessel from the gulf before this week’s truce, President Jotaro Tamura said on Thursday the group would now need to scrutinize details and the implementation of the ceasefire before allowing its tankers to test the Strait of Hormuz.

Mitsui owns Mayasan, while Yakumosan’s owner Phoenix Ocean Corp. shares MOL’s address. MOL said it could not comment on “the navigation status or operational measures of individual vessels,” adding its priority was the safety of seafarers, cargo, and vessels.

The Japanese tankers follow a similar move by three fully-laden Chinese ships. On Thursday, the three Chinese VLCCs clustered at a spot approaching Iran’s Qeshm, the island that now serves as a gateway for Hormuz transits. Two of the ships are linked to China’s Cosco Shipping Corp., a giant and prudent state-owned player.

The Cospearl Lake, a very-large crude carrier linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping Corp., and He Rong Hai, owned by a smaller entity, appeared to be traveling east early on Thursday morning at near-top speeds, according to ship-tracking data, before coming to a virtual halt. Another Cosco-linked VLCC, the Yuan Hua Hu, began its eastward journey a few hours later. All three are signaling Chinese ownership on their tracking systems, a move typically done for safety during Iran-approved transits (and in this case they aren't lying).

The Chinese ships are already notable for their cargoes. Two are carrying Iraqi crude, and the other Saudi. While Iran has referred to “brotherly” Iraq, most other transits have been granted to friendly nations. Iraq has told traders and refiners that vessels carrying the country’s oil are now able to transit the Strait of Hormuz thanks to an Iranian exemption.

Cospearl Lake’s and Yuan Hua Hu’s passages would also mark the first such attempt by a Cosco oil tanker in the six-week war. The company, like other large shipping firms, tends to be conservative, and its crude carriers have been trapped since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, prompting Iran to all but close Hormuz in retaliation

Sea Condor, the Greek-flagged ship, also moved into the gulf at around the same time and picked up Kuwaiti fuels in early March. Its owner is Turandot Marine Co. which shares the same contact details as its manager, Pantheon Tankers Management, in Athens.

The tankers are part of a growing armada amassing at the entrance to the strait, off the United Arab Emirates. A Saudi Arabian-flagged VLCC, the Jaham, has moved east toward a nearby holding area off Dubai. They join other ships including two Indian-flagged, fully-laden supertankers that have been in the area since late March - the Desh Vibhor, which is off Ras Al Khaimah, and the Desh Vaibhav, which is near Dubai.

Shipowners are not only concerned about the safety of crew and cargo, but also about the need to manage Iranian demands to secure safe passage, including payments which could expose companies to sanctions risks. Trump, who announced a complete opening of Hormuz along with the ceasefire earlier this week, said on Thursday he was optimistic, only to then chastise Iran for doing a “very poor” job of allowing oil through.

Meanwhile, all transits observed in the past day passed through a narrow northern corridor of the Strait between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, which is the only passage permitted by Iran's military.

Observed Transits

According to Bloomberg, since Thursday morning, two Iran-linked oil tankers, two bulkers and a single container ship have been observed leaving the Persian Gulf. The Greek oil tanker Serengeti, which appeared on automated tracking systems off Sri Lanka on Thursday, is estimated to have made the outbound crossing on April 1.

From the other side, two tankers sanctioned by the US for their involvement in the Iranian oil trade - one of which was the Arhimeda - were observed entering the Gulf on Thursday. A small bulk carrier also made the inbound transit. On Friday morning, the only vessel seen heading into the Persian Gulf was a Chinese-linked bulk carrier.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 12:00