Individual Economists

"No Longer Negative": BLS Annual Benchmark Revision Will Revise Payrolls Higher For First Time Since 2022

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"No Longer Negative": BLS Annual Benchmark Revision Will Revise Payrolls Higher For First Time Since 2022

On Friday at 10am ET (at the same time as Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to the level of nonfarm payrolls for March 2026. The final benchmark revision will be issued and incorporated into nonfarm payrolls alongside the January 2027 employment report in February 2027.

The key source data for the benchmark revision comes from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is derived from state unemployment insurance records, and which is much more accurate than the BLS's own internal surveys. The March 2026 QCEW data will be released at the same time as the preliminary benchmark estimate, introducing uncertainty around the ultimate size of the revision. However, as Goldman writes in its revision preview note (available to pro subs), based on the nine months of data released since the last benchmarked period, March 2025, a modest upward revision appears likely, the first one since 2022  and follows the massive negative revisions of 2023 and 2024.

Indeed, Goldman expects a preliminary upward revision on the order of 50-450k which would translate to a 5-40k upward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026. A final revision of this magnitude would result in the average pace of payroll growth over April 2025-March 2026 being revised up from about 25k/month currently to 30-65k/month.

The preliminary estimate for the benchmark revision will likely understate the final revision: the chart above shows that the preliminary estimate has been below the final revision in each of the last six years, by roughly 100k on average. This reflects that the QCEW itself has been revised up in every quarter since 2019 with the exception of 2020H1 (chart below), potentially reflecting ongoing issues with initial submissions to the administrative records that inform the QCEW.

Revisions to the QCEW are one reason why the BLS only benchmarks payrolls to the QCEW annually and with a long lag.

An upward benchmark revision would mark the first since 2022. The last two benchmark revisions in particular have been quite negative, in our view likely reflecting difficulties accounting for unauthorized workers in the QCEW. (This potential undercounting is less of an issue for this year’s benchmark given the sharp slowdown in immigration, and should also be less of an issue going forward.) As we discussed first a few years ago when we correctly previewed the massive negative revisions to 2023 and 2024 data, since the QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records, it likely excludes most unauthorized workers, who contributed to employment growth in the periods covered by those benchmark revisions. In most cases unauthorized workers do not qualify for unemployment insurance, so employers might see little reason to pay unemployment insurance tax on their behalf and might even see it as a needless risk in the cases of any immigrants they are employing who do not yet have work permits.

The BLS provides a decomposition of the sources of benchmark revisions each year, split between revisions that arise from miscalibration of the birth-death model and revisions from other sources, such as sampling and reporting errors. Consistent with difficulties accounting for unauthorized workers, only a modest share of the last two benchmark revisions - and just 14% of last year’s very large revision - can be attributed to miscalibration of the birth-death model; the bulk instead falls into the residual category which would capture the reporting error arising from a systematic undercount of unauthorized workers.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 09:18

Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste

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Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Democratic Socialism promises affordability and fairness. The bill, from Caracas to Copenhagen, is something else entirely.

On January 1st, a self-described democratic socialist was sworn in as mayor of the largest city in America. Weeks before that, socialist candidates swept a wave of primaries, sending the largest bloc of socialist legislators in New York history to Albany and two more to Congress. Then a billionaire governor, JB Pritzker, went on CNN, was asked whether the socialist wins were a good thing, and answered that they are “the recipe for winning in 2026 and beyond.” Make no mistake, democratic socialism is no longer a fringe idea in America. It’s a live political program with real momentum. The only question that matters is what it delivers after you buy it.

I have been managing money for a very long time through many market cycles, from manias to crashes. Over that time, I have learned to separate what a policy promises from what it produces. So let’s do that honestly here, starting with a concession most defenders of markets won’t make: Capitalism has flaws.

Capitalism Has Flaws

Capitalism is not perfect, and pretending otherwise is how you lose the argument before it starts. The system distributes rewards unevenly, routinely runs in boom-and-bust cycles, and has produced a K-shaped economy where asset owners pulled away from wage earners after 2008 and again after 2020. Housing, healthcare, and childcare have all outrun paychecks, and younger workers look at home prices and tuition bills and conclude the game is rigged.

I get it, and most importantly, I agree.

However, here’s the part that should bother free-market defenders most. A lot of that anger is aimed at something real. As I’ve written before, the serial bailouts since 2008 have socialized losses for the powerful while everyone else has absorbed the cost. That’s not capitalism working. That’s capitalism being corrupted. So when a 28-year-old votes for Zohran Mamdani, the grievance underneath the vote is not stupid. It’s the diagnosis of the cure that fails, and it fails badly.

Let’s dig into something equally important.

Democratic Socialism Is Not Social Democracy

The biggest source of confusion in this whole debate is the word itself. People use “socialism” to describe two systems that could not be more different, and the sloppiness is doing real work.

Socialism, in the textbook sense, means the state or “the community” owns the means of production. The government runs the factories, the banks, and the farms. Central planners, not markets, set prices. Social democracy is a completely different animal. It keeps private ownership, market prices, and free trade fully intact, then layers a large, tax-funded welfare state on top. One replaces the market. The other feeds off it.

Why does the distinction matter so much? Because the countries that collapsed were the first kind. And the countries American progressives actually point to, Denmark and Sweden, are the second kind, which is “Democratic Socialism.” They aren’t socialist at all. We’ll get to why that gap sinks the whole pitch. First, the table.

The Purest Version: Collapse, Then A New Elite

Start at the far end of the spectrum, because that’s where the theory gets its cleanest test. Venezuela was the richest country in Latin America, sitting atop the world’s largest oil reserves. Then Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro nationalized hundreds of companies, imposed price controls, and expropriated private land in the name of the people.

The result was the deepest peacetime economic collapse in modern history outside of war. Output per person fell by roughly three-quarters. Food production dropped 75%. Inflation crossed a million percent. Nearly eight million people walked out of the country on foot.

One point critics will reach for is U.S. sanctions. That is true, but those sanctions arrived later and only deepened the existing wound. But the collapse was well underway before the 2017 sanctions, and other oil states rode out the same 2014 price crash with their economies intact. The wound was self-inflicted. During the boom years, many Western admirers held up Venezuela as proof that socialism works. It wasn’t.

Now, the part that the brochure never mentions, and what you have to be very careful of when voting for it. Socialism promises to abolish the elite. In reality, it only installs a new and more deeply entrenched one.

The Soviet Union had its nomenklatura, the party class with private stores and country dachas. North Korea is on its third generation of hereditary Kim rule, a monarchy with a red flag. China favors its “princelings,” the descendants of the original revolutionaries. Venezuela produced the boliburguesia, the connected insiders who grew rich while the country starved. So, the reality is that SOMEONE will always end up on top, it just won’t be you or the average worker.

Look at who leads the movement here at home. The new face is Mamdani, son of a Columbia University professor and a globally acclaimed filmmaker. The loudest establishment cheerleader is Pritzker, heir to the Hyatt fortune, worth close to $4 billion, assuring everyone that taxing the rich is only fair. These are not people who have missed a meal. That’s the pattern across a century of these movements, and it’s no accident. The bigger the state you build to deliver “equality,” the bigger the prize for whoever captures it.

Markets, Not Manifestos, End Poverty

Run the film in reverse, and the lesson is just as sharp. Under Mao’s fully planned economy, the Great Leap Forward produced the deadliest famine in human history, killing somewhere between 10 and 40 million people. Then Deng Xiaoping said four words that changed the world: “Poverty is not socialism.” He handed farmers their own plots, opened special economic zones, and let prices and trade do their work.

The result is the single largest reduction in human poverty ever recorded.

China’s extreme poverty rate fell from roughly 88% in 1981 to under 4% by 2016. Around 800 million people climbed out of destitution, accounting for about three-quarters of all global poverty reduction over that period. India tells the same story after it dismantled its socialist “License Raj” in 1991 and let markets breathe.

Here’s the point, and it’s the one that should stop a thoughtful young voter cold. China is not free. It’s an authoritarian state. Yet the moment it let private ownership and market prices operate, outcomes improved faster than any welfare program in history could dream of. That’s how much power sits in the market mechanism, and it’s exactly the machinery socialism proposes to switch off. We’ve laid out the deeper data on this in Capitalism: The Road To Wealth And Happiness.

“But Scandinavia Works”

This is the strongest argument the other side has for democratic socialism, so let’s take it seriously. The Nordic countries have universal healthcare, cheap college, low poverty, and citizens who report being among the happiest on earth. Bernie Sanders has spent a decade telling Americans to look to Denmark and Sweden. If that’s democratic socialism, why not copy it?

Because it isn’t socialism. Not remotely. Denmark’s own prime minister traveled to Harvard to correct the record, telling Americans plainly, “Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.” The Nordics rank among the freest economies in the world. On the Fraser Institute’s index, Denmark sits at #10, ahead of most of Europe. They have flexible labor markets, no legislated national minimum wage, strong property rights, aggressive free trade, corporate taxes lower than ours, and, in Sweden’s case, a nationwide school voucher system American progressives would call heresy.

When you compare Venezuela to Denmark, the word “socialism” gets stretched across right next to each other, and the argument ends itself.

Denmark also got rich first, back when it was a low-tax economy, and then reformed hard back toward markets in the 1990s after the welfare state had stalled its growth in the 1970s and 80s. And here’s the detail the pitch always leaves out. They pay for it by taxing the middle class, not just billionaires.

Think a 25% national sales tax and income tax rates that bite ordinary workers, not a magic levy that falls only on the yacht crowd. The Nordic model is capitalism with a big, broadly financed welfare state. Copy the capitalism if you like. The part U.S. socialists want to skip, the broad taxes and the market discipline, is the part that makes the whole thing stand up.

The Bill Comes Home: Taxes, Wealth, And Free Money

The American program for democratic socialism rests on two pillars: much higher taxes and some form of guaranteed income. Both have a track record, and neither is kind.

Start with “tax the rich,” which assumes the rich aren’t already carrying the load. They are. The top 1% of earners pay 38% of all federal income taxes while earning about 21% of the income. The top 10% pay more than 70%, and the top half pays 97% of the entire federal income tax take. The bottom half pays a little over 3%. We run the most progressive income tax in the developed world.

Now to the fairness point people raise, and it’s a fair one. Lower earners still pay payroll taxes. True. But once you count what comes back, the picture flips. The Congressional Budget Office finds that after transfers, Medicaid, food assistance, and refundable credits, the lowest fifth of households carries a net federal tax rate of roughly 0.5%.

In 2020, it went negative, meaning they received more than they paid. Over half of all means-tested transfers flow to the bottom fifth, three-quarters to the bottom two-fifths, while the top fifth pays more than two-thirds of all federal taxes. The reality is that the productive top is already funding the safety net. There’s no vast, untapped vein of “the rich” sitting there to bankroll a far larger state.

So how do the countries that actually run these programs pay for them? Not the way the slogans suggest. The math of democratic socialism forces the burden down onto the middle. Here is what the American tax base looks like today, next to what it would have to become if we adopted the Nordic model these candidates hold up as the goal.

Read that table again, because it’s the whole argument in one frame. In America, the top rate hits at roughly 9x the average wage. In Denmark, it is about 1.3x the average wage. The barista and the surgeon land in nearly the same bracket, and a 25% sales tax greets both of them at the register on almost everything they buy. That is not a tax on the rich. It’s a tax on working and middle-class life, and it has to be, because as the Tax Foundation flatly concludes, mirroring the Scandinavian model would raise taxes in the U.S. “especially on the middle class.”

What about a wealth tax, then? Europe already ran that experiment. In 1990, a dozen countries levied one. Today, four do. France lost an estimated 12,000 millionaires in a single year and raised less than 0.2% of GDP before scrapping its version. Capital and the people who own it don’t sit still and wait to be taxed. They move.

And the second pillar, universal basic income? A recent review of 122 guaranteed-income pilots found that the larger, more credible studies showed employment falling rather than rising. The deeper flaw is one of economic gravity. Production has to come before consumption. Send out checks without new output, and prices simply rise to swallow them, exactly what 2021 showed. We covered this at length in UBI: Tried, Tested, and Failed As Expected and in A Robot Economy. All of it lands on a country already carrying $39 trillion in debt, north of 120% of GDP, spending more than a trillion a year just on interest. There is no fiscal room for this. None.

Every Flaw, Made Worse

Here’s where it comes together. Go back to capitalism’s real flaws, the ones I named up top, and watch what social democracy actually does to each one.

Worried about inequality? Socialism produces the most extreme concentrations of power and wealth on record, and it hands them to a political class you can’t vote out and can’t compete with. Money inequality is at least contestable. Power inequality is not. On top of that, funding the program with a printing press delivers inflation, which is the single most regressive tax there is. It robs the poor first. The cure deepens the disease.

Angry about cronyism and bailouts for the connected? Then the last thing you want is a bigger state. Every dollar of economic activity you route through government becomes another dollar the well-connected fight to capture. The bigger the prize, the harder they fight, and they always win. You don’t end cronyism by enlarging the thing cronies feed on. You starve it.

Furious about the cost of housing, healthcare, and childcare? Those are already the three most government-distorted markets in America. Rent control shrinks the housing supply. Subsidies poured in without new supply getting absorbed into higher prices, which is why childcare grew less affordable even as the subsidies grew. More of the same intervention makes the scarcity WORSE, not better. And stagnant wages? Wages rise on productivity, productivity rises on investment, and investment flees higher taxes and capital controls. Ask the thousands who left France or the millions who left Venezuela.

So yes, capitalism is flawed, but democratic socialism only makes it worse. But the honest fix is to remove the distortions, end the bailouts, stop debasing the money, break the regulatory capture, and clear the way for supply. That’s the argument I’ve made for years in pieces like our work on productivity and jobs. The fix is more competition and sounder money. It is not a system that takes every flaw you’re angry about and pours gasoline on it. As Howard Marks likes to say about cycles, the seeds of the next problem are planted in the solution to the last one. Social democracy is that seed.

What It Means For Your Money

So, what does this have to do with money and your portfolio? A durable shift of democratic socialism toward higher taxes on capital, wealth levies, and deficit-financed transfers changes the terrain on which investors stand. It raises the odds of higher structural inflation, pressures the currency, and invites the kind of capital flight that has followed these policies wherever they’ve been tried.

The practical takeaways are straightforward. Own productive assets, the businesses and hard assets that hold value when money is being debased. Watch policy risk at the state and municipal level, where these ideas arrive first and where capital and residents vote with their feet. And keep the long view. The market engine that compounds wealth over decades is precisely what’s on the ballot. Protecting your exposure to it is not a political act. It’s a risk-management one.

The appeal of democratic socialism is real because the pain it speaks to is real. I won’t pretend otherwise. But intentions are not outcomes, and history has handed us the outcomes in ink, from Caracas to the old Soviet bloc to the Nordic countries that quietly kept their capitalism. The promise is a beautiful cake. The aftertaste is shortages, capital flight, inflation, and a new elite standing where the old one used to be.

Capitalism’s flaws are worth fixing, and we should fix them. Replacing the system that produced the highest living standards in human history, in order to cure its imperfections, is how you end up with the imperfections and none of the living standards. That’s the trade on the table. Look closely before you take it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 09:00

Futures Flat, Bonds Drop Ahead Of Warsh Jackson Hole Speech

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Futures Flat, Bonds Drop Ahead Of Warsh Jackson Hole Speech

US stock futures are flat and rates rise ahead of today's main event: Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 10am ET (full preview here) as traders seek clarity on his economic outlook and his strategy for lowering inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are little changed and Nasdaq 100 futures are lower following the Nvidia-driven rally for the index in the prior session, when however only 30% of the S&P and 1 of 11 sectors closed green as the index continues to be carried by a handful of AI names while the median stock goes nowhere. Pre-market, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher led by TSLA (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.3%); NVDA is the laggard (-0.5%). PayPal slumped 16% in premarket trading after Advent and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of the firm. Overnight, headlines were largely quiet with WTI dropping further as the Iran conflict remains quiet. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher (10Y 4.69% and 3Y rates up two basis points to 5.21%) while the dollar and gold barely budged. Brent crude fluctuated. Copper headed for a ninth weekly gain, the longest run since 2020. USD is flat. Commodities are all modestly higher across base metals, precious metals (silver +1.5%) and ags. Today's US economic data calendar includes August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. New York time, several minutes earlier for subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed services activity (11 a.m.). 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: Tesla +0.4%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia -0.3%

  • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) climbs 13% after the financial technology company forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Also, the company and Shopify expanded their global partnership to launch Shop Pay Installments in Australia.
  • Autodesk (ADSK) falls 4% as the application software company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Citi notes that the company’s sales growth looks to be moderating in the second half of the year.
  • Elastic (ESTC) rises 18% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year and posted guidance that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Gap (GAP) gains 14% after the apparel retailer named Michael Francis as head of Old Navy and profit outpaced estimates, offsetting a sales decline at the value chain and lower sales guidance.
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported second-quarter results that modestly beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus. However, shares of the chipmaker are down 7%; the stock had soared more than 180% this year, as of its Thursday close.
  • PayPal (PYPL) falls 17% as people familiar with the matter say that a consortium of buyout firm Advent and payment processor Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of the fintech pioneer.
  • SentinelOne (S) falls 3% as the cybersecurity platform’s forecast for fiscal-year adjusted EPS trails the average estimate.
  • Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) rises 15% after the company and Element Solutions mutually agreed to terminate their merger pact.
  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA) falls about 1% as higher discounts and promotions weighed on the cosmetics retailer’s margins. Analysts said gross margins were underwhelming but noted guidance could be conservative.

In other corporate news Gap jumped in premarket trading after naming a retail industry veteran as head of Old Navy and reporting profit above estimates, offsetting a sales decline at the value chain and lower sales guidance. Tencent released a foundation model it says outperforms rivals Z.AI and Moonshot AI in internal tests. The UAE has given SpaceX’s Starlink a 10-year general satellite services license. Fox responded to a Reuters report that Rupert Murdoch and Lachlan Murdoch are considering a recombination of Fox and News Corp., saying there have been no discussions on the topic since consideration of a possible merger in 2022. Element Solutions and Solstice Advanced Materials mutually agreed to terminate their merger pact.

As described in our Jackson Hole preview (here) Warsh’s address, scheduled for 10 a.m. New York time, is shaping up as a crucial moment for markets as doubts about his commitment to taming inflation have helped push up long-term yields. A divided policy committee and the Treasury’s bond market intervention are further complicating the backdrop.

“Investors are reluctant to increase their exposure just hours before Kevin Warsh’s speech,” said Nabil Milali at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “His recent comments have been so vague that no one knows what to expect today, with some investors anticipating a very hawkish message and others expecting the exact opposite.” 

Warsh’s speech could flatten the US yield curve, bolster risk appetite and support the dollar, if he gets it right, according to Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. “What investors want to see is the framework that the Fed is using to think about the economy to allow markets to better assess incoming data,” said Hugh Gimber, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “That’s the piece that’s been missing at the moment.”

Goldman rates trader George Cole made the following notable remarks ahead of J-Hole:

Obviously the speech is very interesting in the context of the buyback announcement, the Druckenmiller op-ed, and the July meeting, which was a head-scratcher. He seemed to endorse the idea that higher long-end yields were a reflection of the market finally standing on its own feet and getting some vol back after years of central bank repression. I think that's a somewhat false narrative, but that was the story he gave us — only for Bessent to say the market doesn't understand the fundamentals, has the price wrong. Philosophically, you can't claim to want an unpolluted read of market pricing while bullying that same market. So we'd be surprised if he re-runs the July script and celebrates the move higher in long-end yields.

What we're looking for instead is something vol-reducing: marginally hawkish near term, but fundamentally calming. The market isn't worried about the Fed's stance — it's confused about what the Fed is actually doing.

Three things would help: 1) a clear statement that the policy rate, not long-end yields, is the main transmission mechanism; 2) an acknowledgement that recent data has been encouraging and reaffirms recent FOMC decisions — not forward guidance, but evidence the Fed is reading the data in a familiar, sensible way; and 3) a recommitment to price stability that sounds a bit more like June.

The speech will be more significant for foreign-exchange, gold and bond markets than for equities, said Ulrich Urbahn at Berenberg. History suggests a similar response, with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.4% on average in the week following the gathering, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “A firm message on inflation, fiscal credibility or the need to preserve restrictive policy would tend to lift real and nominal long-end yields, support the dollar and pressure duration-sensitive assets,” Urbahn said.

Bloomberg’s Editorial Board writes that investors demanding clear answers to their many questions from his speech are almost certain to come away disappointed.

“Warsh can and should try to dispel some of the doubts that have arisen since his appointment began in May. But it’ll be a while before he can provide a definitive account of his preferred approach to monetary policy. Having commissioned five task forces of eminent experts to offer advice, he has little choice but to wait until they’ve reported back and he and his colleagues have discussed the findings.” - Bloomberg Editorial

What can’t wait, though, is a commitment to investors that the Fed will freely explain the rationale for its actions going forward. To put it more bluntly, Warsh needs to say: “Message received.”

Elsewhere, Citadel Securities posted a record $7.3 billion of trading revenue for the second quarter, more than triple on a year earlier. A US judge ruled that the Trump administration must lift its ban on Anthropic’s AI technology for federal agencies.

The flood of debt financing for AI capex is causing “indigestion” in fixed-income markets and fueling yields, but that dynamic should result in decent longer-term returns for investors, according to Pimco. Meanwhile, BCA Research chief economist Peter Berezin highlights that hyperscaler depreciation expense is set to jump to over $500 billion by 2030, equal to the expected operating profits of all five companies in 2026.

In other assets, oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Copper edged closer to a record high, with three-month futures trading above $14,300 a ton in London, on track for a ninth weekly gain, the longest such run since 2020.

In geopolitics, the US is in talks with Venezuela to take a large stake in its oil fields, which would extend the Trump administration’s influence on the post-Maduro government and the nation’s vast energy reserves. Iran said putting US diplomacy back on track “isn’t impossible.”

The Stoxx 600 is up by 0.5% in a broad rally in European equities, and set for a fifth straight monthly advance ahead of speeches by central bankers at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Consumer, autos and chemicals sectors are the best performers. Media and real estate are among the few decliners. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

  • BMW rises as much as 2.4% and Forvia gains as much as 4.9% as Citi places the stocks on positive watches, saying there may be some room for relief from current low levels as the automotive sector continues to face structural challenges.
  • Ackermans shares rise as much as 8.5% as KBC Securities says the investment company had “closed a solid first half.”
  • Interparfums shares gain as much as 5.4% as Oddo BHF raises its recommendation on the French firm to outperform from neutral, saying new products should boost revenue.
  • Hays gains as much as 6.2% as Panmure Liberum upgrades to buy, boosts its price target to a Street-high and says “for the first time in a long time” there is asymmetric risk profile to the upside on estimates.
  • Strabag shares rise as much as 12% after the Austrian construction company boosted its Ebit margin forecast for the full year.
  • Recticel gains as much as 6.7% with KBC Securities saying the insulation product manufacturer exceeded first-half consensus adjusted Ebitda expectations by 9%.
  • Goodwin shares rally as much as 13% after the engineering company reported record profits in the last financial year and announced plans to return a “substantial part” of any proceeds from selling its Mechanical Engineering division to shareholders.
  • Sivers Semiconductors fall as much as 22% after the Swedish electrical component manufacturer reported second-quarter earnings which included a drop in net sales and accelerating operating losses. Shares are still up over 600% year to date.
  • Boozt falls as much as 8.5% after an offering of shares by holder Ferd prices at SEK145/share, a 7.05% discount to Thursday’s close.

Asian stocks edged higher, with cyclical sectors among the top gainers, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole later today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2% after rising as much as 0.6%. Financials, industrials and materials were among the best-performing sectors on the gauge. Meanwhile, a subgauge of tech shares gave up early gains spurred by optimism over Nvidia’s strong outlook. The MSCI Asia gauge was up 0.4% for the week, on track for a fifth weekly gain in six. The regional benchmark is up 3.1% so far in August, poised for its first monthly increase since May. Still, sentiment remains fragile amid continued concerns over Big Tech spending, geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.

“Despite the strong performance of US stock indices yesterday, we saw this morning that risk appetite remained limited in Asian markets, mainly because investors are reluctant to increase their exposure just hours before Warsh’s speech,” said Nabil Milali, a portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “His recent comments have been so vague that no one knows what to expect today, with some investors anticipating a very hawkish message and others expecting the exact opposite.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed; the yen led losses among major currencies, moving closer to 160 against the dollar and heading for its lowest level since the coordinated  US-Japan intervention at the end of July. Japan spent a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the currency, according to data released by the Finance Ministry on Friday.

In rates, treasuries are mostly muted as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole address, and hold small losses, lifting yields by about 1bp inside this week’s ranges, with Warsh holding the potential to alter market pricing for a single quarter-point interest-rate increase by year-end and high likelihood of a second by mid-2027. 10-year yield is about 2bps higher on the day near 4.69%, outperforming UK and German counterparts.Yield-curve flattening trend unleashed by last week’s Treasury Department decision to expand buybacks targeting 10- to 30-year sectors has stalled.5s30 spread, about 1bp wider near 80bp, fell below 79bp Thursday to the lowest level since July 29, most recent Federal Reserve decision date, while 2s10s, more than 1bp steeper near 45bp, breached 43bp, lowest since Aug. 7.  IG credit new-issue calendar is anticipated to be light through month-end; activity ground to a halt Thursday.

In commodities, oil prices lower with Brent hovering around $89/barrel and WTI around $83, while gold is holding close to $4,600/oz and silver is rallying. Bitcoin is trading below $80,000.

Today's US economic data calendar includes August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. New York time, several minutes earlier for subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.) and August Kansas City Fed services activity (11 a.m.). Fed speaker slate also includes Cleveland Fed’s Hammack at 9 a.m. and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee at 12:40 p.m.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The top US commander for the Middle East said that American forces have cleared Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, after Washington’s allies expressed doubts about similar claims by President Donald Trump.
  • Qatar's prime minister visited Tehran on Thursday in an effort to revive stalled diplomacy six months into the war, as U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was not currently talking to Iran. RTRS
  • Venezuela is considering whether it should quit OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially delivering a fresh blow to the oil cartel it helped create more than six decades ago. BBG
  • Jackson Hole Preview: Warsh to speak at 10am & GS econ expects him to reiterate his commitment to the 2% inflation target, expand on the rationale behind his approach to Fed communication and offer thoughts on some bigger picture topics such as productivity growth or shocks to the global economy that he alluded to at his last press conference. He's likely to acknowledge the better recent inflation news but is unlikely to provide any policy guidance. Full Preview here
  • Howard Lutnick accused Canada of scuttling trade talks by adding last-minute demands, saying PM Mark Carney had political incentives to kill an emerging deal. BBG
  • A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order that prevents the Postal Service from inserting itself into the election process while litigation continues: NBC
  • Nippon Life Insurance Co., Japan’s largest life insurer, said it is open to becoming a net buyer of government bonds next fiscal year as it finds current interest rates attractive. BBG
  • Japan spent a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the yen, underscoring the authorities’ willingness to deploy increasingly aggressive tactics to put a floor under the currency. BBG
  • Tokyo’s key inflation gauge accelerated for a third month even as the government took steps to reduce energy costs, bolstering the case for another Bank of Japan interest-rate increase as market expectations mount for a move in September. RTRS
  • Spanish inflation surged to 4.5% in August, more than double the ECB’s target, while France’s 2.7% reading exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for a rate increase next month. BBG
  • US President Trump's administration is mulling a 500mln gallon boost to 2027 biofuel quotas to offset exemptions

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside, where all indices rose and the Nasdaq outperformed post-NVIDIA earnings, but almost all sectors were in the red aside from tech, while the attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Warsh's keynote speech. ASX 200 was higher with notable outperformance in tech, although consumer stocks and real estate lagged amid the recent increased bets for the RBA to resume its hiking cycle next month. Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the latest data releases, including a surprise decline in the Unemployment Rate, while Tokyo CPI matched estimates, with the Core reading remaining beneath the 2% goal. KOSPI bucked the trend amid weakness in South Korean tech giants despite the sector doing much of the heavy lifting across global markets, while there was a report that SK Hynix lagged rivals in NAND process-node transitions, with slower upgrades and reduced NAND capex eroding its cost competitiveness and market share. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat but with the upside limited amid a slew of earnings releases and with participants also bracing for results from Chinese big banks.

Top Asian News

  • S&P affirmed China at A+; Outlook Stable. Said a stable outlook on long term rating reflects the view that China will provide larger fiscal support to keep the economy growing at around 4% over the next two years.
  • China’s Ministry of Finance said the country will implement proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year; long term positive fundamentals remain unchanged.

European bourses are entirely in the green, with the CAC 40 the clear outperformer as it rebounds from yesterday's downside. The main driver of Thursday's losses was the presidential debate that took place between candidates. The key focus was on how the candidates would approach France's debt problem; no consensus was agreed on the stage on how to solve the problem, but suggestions ranged from waiving interest payments on ECB-owned debt to cutting welfare spending. Overall, Politico says no candidate pulled off a clear winner and that the presidential race remains open. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Consumer Products & Services top the sector pile, with Autos and Chemicals rounding out the top 3 performers. To the downside is Media, followed by Real Estate and Retail. Key movers include: UK defence names, FT reported that Chancellor Healey will shelve its defence spending target at October's budget; EssilorLuxottica (+3.3%), announces share buybacks of up to 5mln shares; Strabag (+10.7%), H1 revenue beat and raises its FY26 guidance; Siemens (+1.5%), upgraded to buy at Erste.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Healey will reportedly shelve defence spending target when presenting October budget, the FT reported.

FX

  • G10s lack a bias ahead of the Warsh Jackson Hole speech with **most currencies flat vs the USD. **
  • DXY ekes modest gains after surpassing the 200DMA of 99.16 ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech. Performance across majors is lacklustre with most currencies weaker, albeit small in magnitude.
  • Into the speech, some analysts have suggested that the market could again be left disappointed; Saxo Bank says the title of the forum suggests that Warsh will deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing rather than the Fed’s thoughts on interest rates - Previous Fed chairs have used the forum to signal upcoming policy actions. However, Warsh has begun his term with a bias against issuing any forward guidance, and has made the case that such guidance can shackle officials to their earlier forecasts, and his approach of little guidance will allow markets to interpret the data themselves.
  • MUFG says the closest historical comparisons to today’s speech are “probably 2008 or 2016” given the level of uncertainty, which both garnered 0.7% move in EUR/USD - FX options price a 46pip move in EUR/USD today, lower than the historicals that MUFG refers to.
  • While OATs saw some weakness at the open, EUR was steady throughout the French Presidential debate. Focus now shifts to Fitch’s rating on France this evening, seen unchanged, and the Socialist party which are set to unveil demands for France’s 2027 budget over the weekend. EUR/USD likely at the whim of the Buck into the highly anticipated Warsh speech, 200DMA c. 10 pips below will likely support the pair for the moment.
  • GBP/USD is flat but off worst levels after finding support at 1.3580. A couple updates on the domestic political front. The FT reported UK Chancellor Healey will shelve defence spending targets when presenting the October budget, a move which could save as much as GBP 10bln/year, based on OBR forecasts. It was separately reported that there could be potential modifications to council taxes, though no GBP move was seen on this report.

Fixed Income

  • Fixed benchmarks are under very mild pressure this morning, but with price action ultimately muted ahead of the day’s key risk events. USTs (-2 ticks) trade within a narrow 108-16 to 108-20 range, whilst Bunds (-21 ticks) and Gilts (-29 ticks) are hampered by elevated gas prices.
  • USTs are trading in an exceptionally thin range this morning as attention remains on two key risk events. Firstly, Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak at 15:00 BST (10:00 EDT). Whether he touches on monetary policy remains to be seen, but even if he doesn’t, there is a risk markets will begin to price in credibility woes once again. At the same time as Warsh, the BLS will release the annual NFP benchmark revision; consensus sees a revision of +200k.
  • Over in Europe, EGBs and Gilts have been subject to a few days in the red, as gas prices remain elevated. A lot of that pressure is attributed to fears surrounding low gas storage, and recent punchy rhetoric out of Russia has also not helped the mood.
  • For France specifically, OATs have had the first Presidential debate to digest. Ultimately, there was no clear victor, but the confab made evident the stark contrast in views held between parties. This can be evidenced in the 10yr OAT/Bund spread, which remains near recent highs at 85bps, but ultimately fairly stable today.
  • OATs (-15 ticks) are faring a touch better vs peers this morning, potentially as leading candidate Le Pen provided further colour on how she would solve France’s debt problem. She noted that spending needed to be cut, arguing that France should not commit more than EUR 5bln to the EU (vs ~EUR 29bln in 2026). She said she would present a EUR 125bln cost-cutting plan before the next budget debate, which will only happen once PM Lecornu submits the 2027 budget bill (end-Sept).
  • Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.75-6.5bln 3.15% 2031, 4.00% 2036 BTP and EUR 2bln vs. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.773% 2034, 1.645% 2035 CCTeu.
  • Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGBs: b/c 2.97x (prev. 3.63x), average yield 1.708% (prev. 1.483%), Tail in price 0.034 (prev. 0.007).
  • Australia sells AUD 800mln 4.25% December 2035 Bonds: b/c 3.88x, avg. yield 5.0539%.

Commodities

  • Geopolitical updates have lacked anything tangible, even though rhetoric has been hawkish. US President Trump dismissed immediate negotiations and suggested sanctions and the Hormuz blockade are putting Tehran under severe strain. Washington says the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines and shipping lanes reopened, while Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing G20 countries to cut Iranian and IRGC revenue flows. Iran, meanwhile, says it is preparing conditions for reopening the Strait, has agreed on a potential corridor with Oman, and warns it could strike US military and economic interests if pressure continues. Despite mediation efforts by Oman and Qatar, the US says no negotiations are currently planned and does not recognise the reported Iran-Oman arrangement.
  • Nonetheless, amid the lack of a notable escalation, WTI and Brent futures are subdued intraday, with the former in a USD 82.54-83.78/bbl range and the latter in a USD 87.60-88.61/bbl range. Participants, as usual, are eyeing any tangible updates on escalations/de-escalations. Dutch TTF, conversely, is firmer by around 2.2% at EUR 69.79/MWh, continuing to be buoyed by supply concerns as Europe replenishes winter stock. Note that the contract briefly notched the EUR 70/MWh mark.
  • Precious metals are firmer despite a resilient USD against the backdrop of softer oil prices, but following two sessions of weakness. Spot gold resides towards the top of a narrow USD 4,571-4,614/oz range within yesterday’s band between USD 4,564-4,643/oz. Spot silver gains after finding a comfortable footing above its 100 DMA (USD 68.19/oz), with the precious metal back on a USD 70/oz handle in a USD 68.44-70.95/oz range.
  • Base metals mostly eke mild gains despite DXY remaining resilient, and with downside capped amid expectations for near-term Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 14,277.65-14,345.00/t range at the time of writing.
  • Venezuela is reportedly mulling leaving OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Saudi Aramco reportedly sold around 4mln barrels of Arab Medium and Heavy crudes to Chinese refiners for loading in September at locations just outside Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.
  • Chinese State Planner is to raise domestic gasoline prices by CNY 375/t and diesel by CNY 360/t.
  • Kazakhstan has restored oil production to normal levels, which were previously reduced due to the attacks on the CPC, according to Interfax.
  • Qatar Energy extended the LNG force majeure to Edison (EDNR IM) until November 4th.
  • Global Aluminium producer is seeking a premium of USD 310/t for October-December 2026 in talks with Japan (-22% Q/Q), according to source reports.
  • Ukraine’s agriculture minister said the country’s winter wheat planting area is expected to decline in 2027.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Canada's ambassador to Washington said Canada cannot accept a US trade deal unless it ensures survival of robust Canadian auto assembly and parts industry, while he stated that Canada's removal of tariffs on US seafood was done more for technical reasons than as a sign of a quick resumption of negotiations.

Central Banks

  • ECB's Kazaks said that inflation must not be allowed to take root.
  • Poll shows 27 out of 31 economists expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps to 2.75% at next week's meeting, while more than two thirds of economists at least one more rate hike after September to lift the OCR to 3.00% or above by year-end

Geopolitics: Iran

  • Two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations, Axios reported.
  • US President Trump posted that "Iran Is a Failing Nation!", while he separately commented "I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal".
  • US Central Command Commander Cooper said the US military successfully cleared sea mines laid in Strait of Hormuz and international shipping lanes are open.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said discussions with Qatar’s PM and foreign minister showed diplomacy could be restored, but argued that the US must abandon pressure, build trust, respect Iran’s rights, and honour its commitments.
  • Iran's Parliament Member Kawsari said "Any agreement with Oman is subject to the lifting of the naval blockade." US messages have reached through Qatar, Oman and Pakistan, but Iran will only enter the operational phase after implementing several paragraphs.
  • Yemeni sources reported that Saudi artillery targeted residential villages in the Al-Thabit area of Qatabar, Saada Province, Yemen, Nour News reported.

Geopolitics: Ukraine/China

  • Ukraine's Military said it struck an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, Russia.
  • Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will respond calmly and appropriately to relations with China and will keep dialogue open.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45 am: United States Aug MNI Chicago PMI, est. 57.9, prior 57.6
  • 10:00 am: United States Aug F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 51

Central Banks

  • 9:00 am: Fed’s Hammack on BTV
  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium
  • 12:40 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a very mixed performance yesterday, as investors grappled with several competing trends. On the upside, Nvidia’s results led to renewed optimism around AI, and the resulting bounce in tech stocks pushed the S&P 500 (+0.72%) to its best day in three weeks. But apart from the tech rally there were consistent losses, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.69%) had its worst day in a month thanks to a fresh rise in energy prices, alongside a notable underperformance for French banks. So the mood was more downbeat than the headline numbers suggested, with over two-thirds of the S&P 500 still lower on the day, and long-end bond yields creeping higher.

Before we get on to that however, the market focus today will be on the Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Warsh is speaking at 3pm London time. This is a significant one, as the speech is often used by Fed Chairs to make big announcements or send policy signals. Indeed, last year saw former Chair Powell acknowledge “the shifting balance of risks”, which set the stage for rate cuts to resume the following month. And with market pricing for the September Fed meeting still in the balance (35% chance of a hike), today's speech is particularly important.

This year, we don’t know what Warsh is going to talk about, but he said in July that he was undecided “whether it’s going to be a big-picture speech or whether it’s going to be a more traditional set up for all the action we’re going to have between September and December”. So that leaves him a few options for today. According to our US economists, they think that a “big-picture” speech could include a discussion of the Fed’s taskforces, or potentially on AI’s economic impact. Alternatively, the “more traditional” speech might see Warsh do a “cleanup” of the July press conference, and he may wish to counter one market narrative that Fed policy actions could be delayed until the task forces have completed their work. See their full preview (link here) for more details.

With all that to look forward to, we actually heard from several Fed speakers yesterday, which demonstrated the current divide on policy. Some suggested that more restrictive policy was required, including Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who voted for a hike last time. She reiterated that “I think it’s appropriate for us to put some restraint there to help bring inflation back down to target”. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a non-voter this year) said “I would probably put myself in that camp” of colleagues who dissented. But Boston Fed President Collins said that “I continue to see rates as mildly restrictive”. And Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he wanted “evidence that this inflation shock is not going to be persistent”, but he also said “I’m OK with waiting as we’re getting that.”

Against that backdrop, bond yields crept up a bit yesterday, although that had more to do with the rise in oil and gas prices than the Fed commentary. So Treasury yields saw moderate increases across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+2.2bps) up to 4.23%, the 10yr yield (+2.9bps) up to 4.68%, and the 30yr yield (+2.6bps) up to 5.19%. And similarly in Europe, the 10yr bund yield (+1.9bps) closed at 3.25%, less than a basis point beneath its post-2011 high from last week, with 10yr OAT yields (+1.5bps) and BTP yields (+2.0bps) also higher.

Yet even as the bond story was fairly consistent yesterday, equities saw an incredible divergence on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the primary driver was Nvidia’s earnings the previous day, with their share price up +8.74% in response. Indeed, it was Nvidia’s best daily performance after an earnings release since May 2024, and it makes a change from the previous 4 quarterly results, when Nvidia fell the following day. Meanwhile, the optimism around AI helped other tech stocks more broadly, with the NASDAQ up +1.57%, whilst the S&P 500 (+0.72%) closed back within 1% of its record high.

However, the strength in tech masked plenty of equity weakness elsewhere. In fact, over two-thirds of the S&P 500’s constituents fell yesterday, with every major sector group falling except information technology (+3.40%), and the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell -0.29%. Meanwhile in Europe, the story was also pretty weak thanks to the latest rise in energy prices, which raised concerns about faster inflation. So the STOXX 600 (-0.69%) saw its worst performance in a month, and there was a particular underperformance for France’s CAC 40 (-1.68%). That came as multiple French banks fell back, with BNP Paribas (-4.79%), Crédit Agricole (-3.97%) and Société Générale (-4.99%) all lower. Those declines came ahead of a French presidential debate yesterday evening that was dominated by the country’s rising public debt. 

Otherwise, the generally downbeat mood yesterday wasn’t helped by the latest rise in oil and gas prices, which added to fears about inflationary pressures. For instance, Brent crude was up +2.12% to close at $89.70/bbl, ending a run of 3 consecutive declines. That came as there were still few signs of progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a Fox News interview that “No negotiations are happening right now, and this will continue until the president feels that maybe they come to the table in a meaningful way”. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that the Trump administration told mediators it has no interest in returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding agreed in June.

Overnight in Asia, bond yields have continued to move higher, which follows weaker demand for a 2yr auction in Japan. So this morning we’ve seen Japan’s 2yr yield (+2.0bps) rise to 1.70%, its highest since 1995. That also follows the latest Tokyo CPI print for August, but that was as expected, with headline CPI rising a tenth to +1.9%. Nevertheless, yields have also risen elsewhere, with Australia’s 10yr yield (+2.6bps) up to a post-2011 high of 5.12%, whilst the 10yr US Treasury yield is up another +0.6bps this morning to 4.68%.

Meanwhile for equities, we’ve also seen a mixed performance overnight. That includes a decent decline for the KOSPI (-1.24%), and the CSI 300 (-0.10%) has also lost ground. However, several other indices have made decent gains, including the Nikkei (+0.75%) and the Hang Seng (+0.47%), alongside a modest advance for the Shanghai Comp (+0.08%). Looking forward, US equity futures are little changed however, with those on the S&P 500 down just -0.04%.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but the US weekly initial jobless claims were better than expected, falling to just 203k in the week ending August 22 (vs. 208k expected). Otherwise, the US merchandise trade deficit widened to $118.8bn in July (vs. $100.5bn expected), which is the biggest it’s been since March 2025.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Hammack and the ECB’s Schnabel. Then on the data side, we’ll get the flash CPI prints for August from France and Spain, German unemployment for August and Canada’s Q2 GDP. And in the US, we’ll also get the MNI Chicago PMI for August, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for August.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:52

Federal Judge Again Blocks Trump Mail-In Voting Rules Ahead Of Midterms

Zero Hedge -

Federal Judge Again Blocks Trump Mail-In Voting Rules Ahead Of Midterms

Via American Greatness,

A federal judge on Thursday temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s new mail-in voting requirements, setting up another potential Supreme Court fight just days before states are expected to begin sending ballots for the November midterm elections.

U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani issued a 14-day temporary restraining order preventing enforcement of a new U.S. Postal Service rule implementing President Donald Trump’s executive order on election procedures.

The ruling comes days after the Supreme Court allowed the administration to move forward in a procedural decision. The justices did not rule on the legality of Trump’s order, instead finding that Talwani had acted before the dispute was ready for judicial review.

Democratic-led states and voting rights groups subsequently refiled their challenges after USPS finalized its rule.

Under the Postal Service requirements, states must provide certain recipient information through a USPS portal and comply with envelope and barcode standards before outbound mail ballots will be accepted.

Talwani said states would face significant logistical problems implementing the requirements with the midterms approaching.

“Plaintiff states have neither time nor funds to design new mail ballots, seek approval of the new designs, order production of mail ballots, update their own election management systems, train election officials to use the USPS portal and upload citizen data to the portal, all before the midterms,” Talwani wrote.

Nearly one-third of Americans vote by mail, making the legal dispute potentially consequential for November’s elections.

Democratic attorneys general argue that Trump and the Postal Service are improperly interfering with authority the Constitution grants primarily to states and Congress over election procedures.

USPS disputes that characterization, saying its rule does not determine voter eligibility or compare submitted information against state voter rolls. States would retain authority over who qualifies to vote by mail.

Trump’s executive order also sought additional proof of citizenship for voter registration, including documents such as a U.S. passport, certain military identification or government-issued photo identification accompanied by citizenship documentation.

The administration has argued that tighter election procedures are necessary to protect election integrity, while opponents contend the president lacks authority to impose the requirements.

Thursday’s order blocks enforcement for two weeks. A hearing is scheduled for Sept. 3, and another appeal is expected.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:35

Uprising In Ceuta: Locals Have Had Enough Of Migrant Invasion

Zero Hedge -

Uprising In Ceuta: Locals Have Had Enough Of Migrant Invasion

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

In the complete absence of any meaningful government action, the people of Ceuta have taken matters into their own hands.

On Wednesday night, Spanish flags filled the streets of the North African enclave. Crowds chanted for deportations. Then a column of residents pushed toward El Trampolín beach, the open-air settlement that has occupied a family shoreline for nearly a month. Tents came down. Belongings went into the sea.

Police formed a line between Spaniards and the camps - and opened fire with rubber bullets on the locals.

That is the picture now coming out of a city of roughly 84,000 people that was flooded at the end of July by a crossing Spanish officials have put above 70,000 and, in some tallies, near 80,000.

The government spent weeks talking about "coexistence," "diversity," and "normality." Ceuta spent those same weeks living with feces in children's parks, hospital wards under strain, and a rising stack of sexual-assault files. On Wednesday, the patience snapped.

The protest began in the late afternoon in O'Donnell, outside the old Military Hospital - one of the sites residents feared the central government wanted to turn into migrant housing.

El Mundo put more than 2,000 people at the Government Delegation. Other Spanish outlets described a larger march through the centre, Spanish and Ceuta flags everywhere, slogans hammered out for hours: "Ceuta no se vende, Ceuta se defiende." "Un caballa nunca se rinde." "Invasores expulsión." "Ceuta no es un CETI."

They demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and of the government delegate in the city, Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano.

When night fell, a few hundred broke toward El Trampolín. El Español reported residents ripping down tents, throwing camp gear into the water, and trying to drive the remaining occupants off "our beach."

Police blocked the main part of the beach. Deterrent rounds followed. Yes, really. They fired rubber bullets at Spaniards protesting illegal settlement; but there was no such volley when tens of thousands illegally stormed the border in July.

Spanish journalist Vito Quiles remarked on Ceutíes bursting the illegal beach settlements while the Spanish state stood still. "Honor al pueblo de Ceuta," he wrote - honour to a city doing the job the ministries would not.

Further footage captured groups of local men moving through the dark after the official march had broken up, describing armed residents hunting those they call invaders. After four weeks of official paralysis in the city, locals took matters into their own hands.

One chant captured on the sand, reported by El Mundo, summarised the feeling among residents; "Si no se quieren ir, los echaremos nosotros." If they will not leave, we will throw them out.

They also chanted "Aquí hay más policía que el día del salto," there are more police than on the day of the mass jump.

Officers who had been unable or unwilling to keep the shoreline clear of shacks suddenly had the numbers to stop Spaniards from finishing the clearance themselves.

A left-wing government that spent a month insisting the situation was under control found the will to fire on its own citizens the moment those citizens tried to recover a public beach.

By Thursday morning the temperature had risen again. AFP reported that a military vehicle with four soldiers was ambushed in the early hours by a crowd of around 70 migrants throwing stones and other objects.

The soldiers fled and called for police. Twelve Moroccan men were detained. One soldier was slightly injured. Kissy Chandiramani, Ceuta's finance councillor, stated: "The tension in the city of Ceuta is very high" because there is "no response" from the government and "we feel abandoned."

Remaining migrant shanty camps on the beach were set alight and destroyed.

City hall, aid groups counting food rations, and anyone with eyes on Trampolín, Benítez, the hills and the warehouse district nite that thousands of migrants remain.

We've seen Mother weeping on live television. One said her 16-year-old "has to go everywhere with her father or with me because the migrants devour her. I can't take it anymore. I want them all gone," Adding that "What's stayed here is the worst of it; there are murderers, rapists, thieves."

Sisters Yoli and María José pulled their daughters out of the city. "We feel humiliated, trampled," Yoli told Cuatro. "I have had to take my daughters out of their house because the Government does nothing, because Mr. Pedro Sánchez is on vacation in La Mareta. Nobody cares about us."

Beaches that used to hold families became camps of reed huts, plastic, rotting food, urine and human waste. Children's parks were left smeared in shit.

Hospitals opened emergency capacity. Doctors speak of scabies, tuberculosis, impetigo and a "health catastrophe."

A BBVA branch closed after a security guard was beaten trying to stop a robbery of an elderly woman. Women described needing escorts to their own front doors.

This was the "example of coexistence" Inclusion Minister Elma Saiz chose to praise from a distance. "Ceuta is a true example of coexistence," she said. "A city in which different cultures, traditions, and faiths coexist. And which has demonstrated over decades that it is one of its greatest strengths." Diversity, she added, is "our greatest strength." The parks full of excrement did not make the speech.

Police unions have described girls and women glued to police vans near the CETI because the moment they step away they are raped. There are accounts of daily assaults, of victims too frightened to report, of attacks moving into the hills where patrols cannot easily follow.

Reports also describe "many dead cats, cut," some missing half a body or pierced, plus half-eaten pigeons and seagulls in the areas where migrants are camping.

Theo latest footage confirms that so called progressive NGO workers are still operating in the city, even handing pepper spray to illegal migrants during Wednesday's clashes - kit for use against the local Spaniards coming down to the beach.

Another clip shows Gaza Barbie, a leftist agitator, joining migrant groups to chant "Free Palestine".

This woman has spent the entirety of August filming herself fleetingly appearing near migrant groups, insisting the streets are safe and dismissing frightened neighbours as xenophobes.

Meanwhile, Spanish television new captured a Moroccan invader explaining that Spanish girls being raped should surprise no one, because they walk alone, and that the fault lies with parents who do not keep them at home.

On Thursday, residents blocked a Red Cross food convoy headed for the beach camps, forcing them to eventually leave.

Locals want the illegal camps gone. They want deportations of those with no asylum claim. They want their daughters able to walk without a male escort. They want parks that are not toilets.

They want a government that treats a Spanish city as Spanish territory rather than a holding pen for rapists, murderers and other criminals.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:15

Gap Soars On Old Navy CEO Shake-Up As Jefferies Sees "New Catalyst" For Stock

Zero Hedge -

Gap Soars On Old Navy CEO Shake-Up As Jefferies Sees "New Catalyst" For Stock

Shares of major U.S. clothing retailer Gap, whose brands include Old Navy, Banana Republic and others, jumped the most in 16 months in premarket trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected profit and upgraded its earnings outlook. The company also named retail veteran Michael Francis as Old Navy's next CEO.

Francis spent 26 years at Target, where he helped engineer the retailer's "cheap chic" strategy, before advising Walmart on its marketing operations. He joined Old Navy in March as chief customer officer.

The leadership shake-up comes after Old Navy's comparable sales fell 4% last quarter, twice the 2% decline expected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg. Gap CEO Richard Dickson blamed mispriced and poorly curated assortments of dresses, shorts and swimwear, along with marketing that failed to generate store traffic.

"What we did not anticipate was the degree to which our marketing would fall short in driving traffic," Dickson told analysts. "We are not satisfied with this result."

Gap lowered the upper end of its 2026 net-sales outlook and reduced its forecast for Old Navy's comparable sales. However, the retailer raised its full-year earnings-per-share guidance after higher prices at Gap and Banana Republic, along with improved operating efficiency, supported margins.

Shares jumped as much as 15% in premarket trading following the earnings and leadership announcements. If the gains hold through today's cash session, it would mark the stock's biggest intraday advance since April 2, 2025.

Shares have traded within a tight range since the end of 2023, bouncing between support near $20 and resistance near $30. Since the Dot-Com era of 2000, the stock has largely traded sideways.

Short interest in the stock stands at around 12.6%, equivalent to roughly 29.9 million shares sold short. Days to cover stands at around 5.7.

Bloomberg data show eight "Buy" ratings, 12 "Neutral" ratings, and zero "Sell" ratings. The average 12-month Wall Street price target is around $27.

Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe offered his initial take on the earnings:

Gap Brand Keeps Winning; Old Navy Missed But Improvements Underway

GAP delivered a mixed Q2, with profit ahead of cons despite weaker-than-expected sales. Gap brand continued to significantly outperform (+10% comp), while Old Navy's -4% comp reflected assortment and marketing missteps that mgmt believes are largely behind it. Encouraging August trends, raised FY26 EPS guidance ($2.35-$2.45), incremental tariff relief, and an upcoming Old Navy leadership transition could support a stronger 2H outlook. Raising PT to $24.

What We DID LIKE in the Quarter

1) Gap Brand Momentum Remains Exceptional. Gap delivered comp growth of +10%, marking its 11th consecutive quarter of positive comps. Strength remained broad-based across departments, while customer acquisition, market share gains, and lower discounting highlight the durability of the reinvigoration strategy.

2) Profitability Outperformed. Despite top-line pressure from ON, adj. GM expanded 20bps to 41.4%, while merch margin increased 80bps on stronger pricing, lower discounting, and tariff mitigation efforts. Adj. OM of 7.1% exceeded expectations, demonstrating continued cost discipline.

What We DIDN'T LIKE in the Quarter

1) Old Navy Stumbled and Athleta Remains a Drag. Old Navy (ON) comps declined 4%, driven by weakness in women's seasonal categories and softer traffic. Mgmt acknowledged issues around assortment, pricing, and marketing execution, prompting a reduction in FY26 comp expectations to flat to down 1%. Athleta comps fell 12% as management maintained a cautious inventory posture while continuing its turnaround efforts. While profitability and inventory productivity improved, meaningful sales recovery remains elusive.

What We See Ahead

1) Old Navy Recovery Is the Key Debate. Mgmt cited improving August trends as seasonal product headwinds faded and new fall marketing gained traction. Strength in denim, active, sweaters, and knits, alongside initiatives such as Sport, Beauty, and Fanatics, should support sequential improvement in 2H. The announcement of Michael Francis as Old Navy's next president and CEO also introduces a new catalyst to help accelerate improvements at the company's largest brand.

2) Raising the Earnings Outlook. Mgmt raised FY26 adj. OM guidance to 7.4%-7.6% and EPS guidance to $2.35-$2.45. Incremental tariff relief, continued AUR growth, cost savings, and buybacks should support earnings growth through year-end.

3) New Growth Vehicles Emerging. Mgmt continues to invest in beauty and accessories, including the nationwide launch of Old Navy Beauty, Gap's fragrance relaunch, and a new accessories platform. While the near-term financial contribution should be limited, these initiatives could provide incremental opportunities for traffic, engagement, and margin over time.

Details From the Call and Callback

Mgmt repeatedly emphasized ON improvement and stronger August trends as key underpinnings of its outlook and confidence.

CNBC quoted incoming Old Navy CEO Francis as saying the brand would "continue to sharpen our customer focus, strengthen the brand's cultural relevance, enhance the customer experience across every touchpoint and build on the momentum already underway."

Now it is Francis' turn to prove he can bring cash-strapped shoppers back to Gap's largest brand.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 08:05

PayPal Crashes After Advent, Stripe Abandon $50 Billion Takeover Bid

Zero Hedge -

PayPal Crashes After Advent, Stripe Abandon $50 Billion Takeover Bid

PayPal shares plunged as much as 16% in premarket trading Friday, the most in months if the losses hold through the cash session, after a consortium led by private-equity firm Advent International and payments giant Stripe abandoned its takeover bid for the struggling payment processor.

Bloomberg reports that the consortium offered more than $50 billion for PayPal in what would have been one of the largest leveraged buyouts in history.

As per the report:

The group is no longer pursuing a deal for PayPal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. It had previously offered more than $50 billion for the company, people with knowledge of the matter have said.

PayPal reportedly rejected the $50 billion offer, betting that Advent and Stripe would return to the negotiating table with a higher price. Instead, the consortium walked away. 

Takeover interest in PayPal first came to light in a February Bloomberg article, which reported that Stripe was considering acquiring all or part of PayPal. Reuters then reported on July 15 that an offer had been made, helping to catapult the stock up roughly 30% (as of Thursday's close). 

News this morning that the consortium has walked away sent shares crashing as much as 16%, threatening to wipe out much of the stock's gains over the past month and a half.

Meanwhile, PayPal is in the middle of a turnaround strategy and has brought in the former CEO of HP. The stock is trading at 2018 levels.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 07:45

Britain's Biggest Council Pushes Two-Year Jail Term For Flying National Flags

Zero Hedge -

Britain's Biggest Council Pushes Two-Year Jail Term For Flying National Flags

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain's largest local authority has gone to the High Court to stop people hanging the Union Flag and the St George's Cross from lampposts, with campaigners warning that a breach could mean up to two years behind bars.

Birmingham City Council filed the application this week as the latest move in a year-long war on "unauthorised attachments." The attachments in question are the flags of the country. The penalties being threatened include prison, unlimited fines, and seized assets.

Protesters who fly the Union Jack from lampposts could criminal proceedings if the injunction is granted.

Former Metropolitan Police detective Peter Bleksley called it what it is. "It's absolutely scandalous!"

The Free Speech Union described the move as "truly mental."

A year ago the same city was already ripping the colours down and calling it safety. Residents put them back up. The council has now decided a High Court order is the way to finish the job.

On 26 August the council announced it had submitted an injunction application "as part of our ongoing work to prohibit unauthorised attachments on the highway, including flags and banners."

Green councillor Jane Baston, cabinet member for equalities, communities and social justice, said: "The Council is taking a lawful, proportionate and evidence-led approach to unauthorised attachments on the highway. This includes pursuing injunctive action based on the evidence gathered to date."

She added: "Our priority is to protect public safety, staff and contractor welfare, community cohesion and the responsible use of public funds. We ask residents and community groups to support this approach and to ensure any displays are placed only where permission exists."

The authority insists the action "is not directed at any particular community, belief or viewpoint." It says the installation and reinstallation of flags has had an impact on the public, and that officers have "witnessed incidents that have involved harassment, intimidation or obstruction during removal activity."

The named targets give the game away. The application lists Raise the Colours co-founder Ryan Bridge, plus others associated with the campaign. Raise the Colours said it had not received or reviewed the papers and could not comment on the application. The group rejected "any suggestion that we are seeking to divide communities," and describes itself as a "grassroots movement for unity and patriotism."

The nationwide campaign by the group to put the England flag back on the street is widely reported to have started in Birmingham last summer. The council spent the following year treating that campaign as a highways nuisance. Now it wants a judge to make the nuisance a city-wide prohibition.

Anti-flag campaigners in the city have been lobbying for exactly this. Brummies United Against Racism and Hate Crime applauded the legal bid, spoke of "thuggish behaviour," and framed the flags as an attempt to "harass and intimidate residents of our proudly multicultural city."

So the national flag is an attachment. Opposition to it is cohesion. And a bankrupt council that spent more than a year failing to collect the bins has found the money and the energy to take patriotism to the Royal Courts of Justice.

Birmingham is taking a page from the book of Liberal Democrat-run Oxfordshire County Council, who won the first injunction of its kind, barring unidentified people from attaching England or Union flags to highway structures or painting flag imagery on roads.

Council leader Tim Bearder celebrated. "This is a welcome judgement. We're very pleased with the result," he said, adding: "This sets a legal precedent and will hopefully deter people in not just Oxfordshire but around the country from partaking in this criminal activity."

He described those putting the flags up as "very challenging people, not patriots."

Oxfordshire spent about £80,000 taking flags down and another £40,000 on lawyers, costs it said it intended to recover. Staff removing flags were said to have faced hostility so serious that some were told to wear face coverings and check vehicles for tracking devices after a worker's home address was published.

The judge said maintenance teams had been "working in fear," that people directed by the council had been obstructed "to the extent that at times they have simply given up on the removal," and that there was "little prospect absent an injunction that it will stop."

The order does not stop flags on private property. Oxfordshire still flies the Union Flag and the St George's Cross at County Hall. Bearder has repeated that the case "is not, and never has been, about the flag," and that Raise the Colours' conduct was "nothing to do with national pride or with support for the England team during the World Cup."

If it was never about the flag, the council would not have needed a High Court order aimed at the flag. If it was never about patriotism, Bearder would not have needed to announce that the people doing it were "not patriots."

Long before any judge got involved, town halls were already spending public money to erase the colours from the street.

Freedom of Information requests to hundreds of local authorities showed councils had spent at least £70,000 removing Union Jacks and St George's Crosses from lampposts and street fixtures. The true figure was higher. Many authorities folded the work into existing budgets and reported nothing.

Medway Council alone spent close to £11,600 taking down more than 700 flags. Labour councillor Alex Paterson, who oversaw community safety there, called it "money well spent" to combat "far-right agitators" and to "make the community feel safe again."

He told the BBC: "I think at this stage the world is divided into people who know exactly why these flags were put up and those who are still pretending they don't know why they were put up."

Left-wing activist Pablo O'Hana, who sent some of the FoI requests, was filmed pulling flags off a Manchester bridge. He told the man who had put them up that he took them down because "that's not what our country is."

That is the official mind in a sentence. The country is not allowed to look like the country.

The same pattern produced a small masterpiece of modern administration in Essex. Staff were offered emotional support if they felt "discomforted" by the national flag on road signs, bridges and trees.

An internal note said: "While these symbols may hold different meanings for different people, we recognise that for many - particularly our colleagues of colour - they can evoke feelings of discomfort and be associated with anti-immigration rhetoric."

Senior leaders invited anyone "feeling unsettled or affected by what you're seeing" to speak to managers, "Global Majority Leads," an assistant director or the director. The Union Flag and the St George's Cross still flew outside headquarters. The problem was not the flag on the civic pole. The problem was the flag in the community.

Nigel Farage, as an Essex MP, called the council "totally out of touch with the county." Lord Maurice Glasman put the priority list in one line: "You get mugged and your bag nicked and that's nothing to do with them, but you put a flag up and it's suddenly an issue." Former Attorney General Sir Michael Ellis said: "This is two-tier. The council won't fix a pothole but worry about this."

Local jobsworths did not invent the idea that the Union Flag is a social hazard. A leaked draft of the government's "social cohesion" strategy did the theological work for them.

The document claimed national symbols were sometimes used to "exclude or intimidate," and that the "extreme right has tried to turn symbols of pride into tools of hate." Flying the English, Scottish and Union flags was folded into a story of hate rather than belonging.

The 47-page draft, Protecting What Matters, leaked to The Spectator, sketched hundreds of millions of pounds for areas where cohesion was "under pressure," a special representative to tackle hostility directed at Muslims, and a new definition of Islamophobia.

Reform UK's Richard Tice's verdict on the flag passage was blunt: "Absurdly, this says our national flag is a tool of hate used to intimidate. The whole paper is a divisive nonsense that should be consigned to the bin."

A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said only: "We do not comment on leaks."

There is a word for the official twitch. Vexillophobia: fear of the flag. Not a clinical diagnosis. A political allergy. A country that treats the St George's Cross or the Union flag as an act of aggression while other political colours are treated as inclusion.

The same institutions had no comparable panic when other flags owned the street. Palestinian colours hung from Birmingham lampposts for months. A leaked 2025 email from cabinet member Majid Mahmood, reported by the Mail, said of those Palestine flags: "We are taking these down, but we need the support of the police due to issues that have cropped (up) when we first tried to take them down."

Conservative opposition leader Cllr Robert Alden called the contrast "completely disgraceful," adding "Frankly, for the last two years, the council has made little effort to remove Palestine flags and now, suddenly, residents are putting up the Union Jack and St George's Cross and they're saying it's a health and safety risk - it's madness."

Robert Jenrick called it "blatant two-tier bias against the British people."

The World Cup made the double standard impossible to miss. Councils warned that English flags might upset "community cohesion." Bristol talked about remaining "welcoming, respectful and safe for everyone during the tournament." English people, in England, were told to mute their own colours in case someone else took offence.

Other authorities joined the queue. Portsmouth, Cheshire, Bristol, Oxford: flags painted off roundabouts, taken off street furniture, treated as a fire risk or an inclusivity problem, while other political symbols stayed put.

Raise the Colours did not come out of a vacuum. It followed years of mass immigration, grooming scandals, and taxpayer-funded hotels for people who arrived illegally. The official response was not to fix the conditions that produced the flags. It was to pathologise the flags.

Section 132 of the Highways Act already lets a council cut an unauthorised sign off a lamp column. What Oxfordshire wanted, and what Birmingham now wants, is something sharper: a civil injunction against the entire country, enforced by contempt of court.

An authority that needs a High Court order to keep the national flag off a lamppost is one whose officials are more frightened of displays of national pride than of the declining conditions that produced the trend in the first place.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 07:20

New Jersey Has America's Highest Lifetime Taxes: $1.36 Million

Zero Hedge -

New Jersey Has America's Highest Lifetime Taxes: $1.36 Million

How much money do you have to pay in taxes over a lifetime?

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, maps the estimated lifetime tax bill for a single filer in every U.S. state, including federal and state income taxes, as well as sales, property, and vehicle taxes.

The data for this visualization comes from Self Financial, with estimates as of June 2026.

The analysis assumes a 45-year working life with constant earnings and tax rates, a life expectancy of 79.6 years, homeownership beginning at age 40, and ownership of five vehicles over a lifetime.

New Jersey Tops the Ranking

New Jersey has the highest estimated lifetime tax bill in the country at $1.36 million.

Rank State Lifetime taxes per person 1 New Jersey $1,359,406 2 Massachusetts $1,297,130 3 Connecticut $1,249,749 4 New Hampshire $1,125,478 5 New York $1,084,561 6 California $1,075,061 7 Maryland $1,060,255 8 Illinois $1,033,447 9 Minnesota $1,018,872 10 Rhode Island $999,704 11 Vermont $953,322 12 Virginia $911,706 13 Wisconsin $851,139 14 Colorado $839,899 15 Pennsylvania $835,067 16 Washington $816,217 17 Oregon $775,976 18 Nebraska $761,072 19 Maine $758,818 20 Michigan $753,076 21 Delaware $731,824 22 Iowa $730,349 23 Kansas $711,966 24 Utah $709,803 25 Alaska $702,376 26 Arizona $698,824 27 Hawaii $684,028 28 Montana $669,934 29 Missouri $665,381 30 Georgia $655,532 31 Indiana $643,299 32 Tennessee $632,562 33 South Carolina $626,485 34 North Dakota $626,340 35 Idaho $621,705 36 Texas $615,932 37 New Mexico $605,411 38 West Virginia $593,639 39 North Carolina $591,911 40 Alabama $591,168 41 Kentucky $588,953 42 Louisiana $575,122 43 Ohio $569,376 44 Mississippi $560,448 45 Wyoming $546,617 46 Nevada $535,652 47 Oklahoma $526,333 48 Arkansas $517,942 49 South Dakota $515,732 50 Florida $508,980

Massachusetts follows at nearly $1.30 million, while Connecticut ranks third at $1.25 million. New Hampshire and New York round out the top five, highlighting the Northeast’s strong presence near the top of the ranking.

Florida Has the Lowest Lifetime Tax Bill

At the other end of the ranking, Florida has the lowest estimated lifetime tax bill at $508,980.

Florida’s lower total is helped by the absence of a state individual income tax, reducing the tax burden that residents pay on their earnings over time.

South Dakota is next at $515,732, followed by Arkansas at $517,942 and Oklahoma at $526,333. Together, the four lowest-ranked states have estimated lifetime tax bills ranging from about $509,000 to $526,000.

States in the Middle of the Pack

Several large states fall closer to the middle of the ranking. Texas has an estimated lifetime tax bill of $615,932, while Georgia comes in at $655,532 and Arizona at $698,824. Pennsylvania ranks higher at $835,067, putting it well above these states but still below the million-dollar mark.

Having no state individual income tax does not necessarily translate into a low overall lifetime tax bill. Washington, for example, ranks 16th at $816,217, above many states that levy an individual income tax. The estimates also account for federal income, property, sales, and vehicle taxes.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: U.S. States With the Widest Wage Gaps on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 06:55

WHO's High-Price Pandemic Plan

Zero Hedge -

WHO's High-Price Pandemic Plan

Authored by David Bell and Ramesh Thakur via Brownstone Institute,

The recent release of Anthony Fauci's diaries, followed by his refusal to answer questions in an appearance before a US Senate committee by invoking the Fifth Amendment protection against self-incrimination 111 times, highlighted a stark divide in how the Covid pandemic was handled by public health authorities. This is as true of Australia as of the US.

Repeatedly, against certainty expressed in public to justify official statements on the origins of the virus and on lockdown, mask, and vaccine policies, their private contemporaneous conversations confirm that even the top scientists were making decisions based on scientific uncertainty.

Consequently, one of the key legacies of the public-private gap is growing distrust of official claims. That scepticism should extend to the future pandemic agenda. We rely on the World Health Organisation to coordinate among countries to prevent scourges such as pandemics reaching our shores, or at least mitigate their effects. In doing so, we must defer to an army of international bureaucrats who work in such institutions. A deference that relies on trust.

Their salaries and careers depend on convincing us to part with more of our money to support their work. Yet, according to a new article on international pandemic financing in the Cambridge journal Health Economics, Policy and Law, the WHO and World Bank rely on dubious assumptions to calculate the return on investment case on which all major international efforts to mitigate future pandemics rely.

This should alarm governments. Mitigation is worth investing in, as pandemics will occur from time to time. But the article shows that current investments will have an overall detrimental effect on global health. Most starkly, it suggests a deep rot in the quality of institutions we rely on as stewards of this commonly accepted global good.

The WHO and World Bank report, produced at the request of the G20 in 2022, proposes an annual $31.1 billion budget for pandemic preparedness and prevention, about $10.5 billion of which would come through foreign aid (including Australia). About $26 billion would come from low and middle-income countries already struggling with economic issues including burgeoning Covid debt. For context, the entire WHO budget for 2024-25 was just $3.8 billion a year.

The point of the WHO and World Bank's argument is that if we spend such resources on preparing for pandemics, we will reap orders of magnitude greater return on investment down the road, more than a thousandfold in some wealthy countries - a bargain difficult to refuse if true.

The article from Leeds University shows that the financial arguments are based on smoke and mirrors. They rely on assumptions on the quality-adjusted life years lost to pandemics as against the big three global infectious diseases of HIV-AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria; on the share of global funds to be devoted to pandemics in comparison to the other three per life saved in each case; and on the benefits to be gained from investments in vaccines and other pharmaceutical products instead of in the more basic determinants of health resilience in the population such as nutrition, sanitation, water, and hygiene. These are the factors, along with antibiotics and gains in medical advances, that have reduced the mortality toll from pandemics since the Spanish flu of 1918.

Furthermore, the WHO and World Bank also discount the adjustments made to human behaviour to mitigate health risks as they become obvious, collateral costs of the pandemic response measures, and the likely benefits of investing in those measures.

This matters because our government has signed on to the amended International Health Regulations, is expecting to sign the proposed WHO Pandemic Agreement, and looks set to sign a UN political agreement this September advocating for yet more money for the authors and beneficiaries of the growing pandemic industry. They are promising a lot of money based on the WHO's costings.

It matters because most Australians assumed that we could trust international institutions and that they valued rigour rather than engage in false accounting and subterfuge.

Unfortunately, incentives without accountability are a poor basis for health governance. It matters because funds to finance the pharmaceutical corporations, research institutions, and bureaucrats who stand to benefit from the pandemic agenda will have to be diverted from programs that work. International funding for the big endemic diseases and basic priorities such as nutrition is already falling, while the pandemic agenda expands. The Leeds authors call for simple transparency and honesty in assessing global health priorities, and in paying for them. Not a big ask. The Australian government has a choice to be constructive on behalf of its taxpayers and require better, or through blind acquiescence remain part of the problem.

Republished from The Australian

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 06:30

Turkey Recruits Trump Insiders For New Washington Lobbying Push

Zero Hedge -

Turkey Recruits Trump Insiders For New Washington Lobbying Push

Via Middle East Eye

The Turkish government hired a lobbying firm with close ties to US President Donald Trump earlier this month under a year-long contract worth $2.4m, according to US Justice Department filings reviewed by Middle East Eye.

Ballard Partners, led by Brian Ballard, a prominent Florida Republican fundraiser who also worked on Trump’s presidential campaign, signed the agreement with Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense on August 8. The firm will receive $200,000 per month.

via AFP

Under the contract, Ballard Partners pledged to provide “government relations services, strategic consulting and advocacy services” before the federal government, and keep its client informed about developments in Congress and US policy.

This is not the first time Ballard Partners has worked for Turkey.

In 2017, during Trump’s first term, Turkey hired the firm under a $1.5m contract. It was one of Ballard Partners’ first major deals in Washington after opening an office there.

At the time, the firm reportedly focused on the sanctions-evasion case against Turkish state-owned lender Halkbank. The Trump administration’s Justice Department dropped the charges against the bank earlier this year.

The new contract differs from the previous agreement because Turkey’s defense ministry is the principal client. Ankara is seeking to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program after being removed in 2019 over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system.

Middle East Eye reported last month that Ankara was considering selling the S-400 system to a third country, potentially the United Arab Emirates, in an effort to persuade Washington to lift sanctions against Turkey.

Ankara also hopes to take delivery of six F-35s that were manufactured for Turkey but have remained in storage in the US for years.

According to the Justice Department filings, the Ballard Partners team working for Turkey includes former Democratic congressman Robert Wexler of Florida, a prominent pro-Turkish voice who co-founded the Congressional Caucus on US-Turkey Relations and Turkish Americans in 2001.

Wexler is also president of the S Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace in Washington and is known for his connections to pro-Israel circles.

Another member of the team is Thomas Boodry, who served as a special assistant to Trump and senior director for legislative affairs at the National Security Council until April 2025. Boodry was dismissed amid the removal of former US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.

Reports at the time suggested that Trump fired Boodry and five other officials shortly after meeting far-right activist Laura Loomer, who presented opposition research on several staff members and argued that they were disloyal to the president.

The team also includes Syl Lukis, a senior partner at Ballard Partners and one of Ballard’s closest associates.

Bloomberg reported earlier this year that Ballard Partners’ alums include White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and former Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The firm generated more than $30m in federal lobbying revenue during the first quarter of 2026, more than any other firm on Washington’s K Street.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 03:30

Well This Is Very Awkward...

Zero Hedge -

Well This Is Very Awkward...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A street interview doing the rounds this week encapsulates the entire European open-borders agenda in under two minutes.

Older Spaniards nod along when asked if they would welcome a migrant into their home, saying it would make for a much better system if everyone did so.

Solidarity, humanity, of course. Then the interviewer produces a real migrant looking for a home and suddenly everything changes.

The interviewer presents the couple with a Nigerian man named Sony who plays guitar on the pavement for small change - and their previous answers collapse into excuses, holidays, "not right now," and finally "no, no, no, no, no."

The clip, shared by Casey Krol and filmed in the Rescue You style, is the kind of unscripted moment the official narrative cannot survive. Abstract empathy and virtue signalling is easy, but when the reality of the situation is presented, everything is turned on its head.

The couple in the video are not monsters. They are ordinary people who have absorbed years of hectoring lecturing and know the approved answer. They just refuse to live it.

The same pattern repeats at every level in Europe: politicians, NGOs, and detached citizens demand that someone else absorb the costs of mass low-skilled inflows while they keep their own postcodes intact.

Spain's socialist government has spent years selling the opposite message. Prime Minister Sánchez has called migration "one of the great engines of national development" and an "act of justice and a necessity."

He has framed legalization as recognition that hundreds of thousands already "form part of our everyday lives." Globalist Alex Soros praised him for it, saying Sánchez showed "what real leadership looks like" and "We need more elected leaders like him."

The public has not bought it wholesale. A Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo found 70 percent of Spaniards support mass deportation of illegal immigrants - including 57 percent of PSOE voters. Only the far-left Sumar base rejects the idea.

The latest explosion for Spain came at the end of July when more than 70,000 people poured into the tiny North African enclave of Ceuta from Morocco in two days. Beaches, schools, and parks filled with tents, waste, and disease. Scabies, measles, and tuberculosis appeared among police and residents. Locals described playgrounds and sand turned into shit covered slums.

The chaos did not stay in Ceuta. Boats began hitting mainland tourist coves. In Cartagena, dozens of military-age men leapt onto a packed beach in full view of families. Mayor Noelia Arroyo said: "This cannot be normalised. We cannot accept that human trafficking mafias have such an easy time reaching our shores." Former mayor Francisco Bernabe asked how a boat that size evaded radar: "Are they broken? Do they have them turned off?"

This week the tension in Ceuta boiled over again. Residents marched on the migrant camp at El Trampolín beach, tore down tents, and threw belongings into the sea. Police fired warning shots to keep the two groups apart. The city of 84,000 has been told to absorb what Madrid will not remove.

Sánchez oversaw a royal-decree regularization - no parliamentary vote - sold as covering 500,000 people. Applications blew past one million. Successful applicants get residence, work permits, benefits, and a path to citizenship that opens the entire Schengen zone.

The paperwork tsunami was immediate. Thousands of military-age men queued at consulates and registry offices in Madrid, Barcelona, Seville, Valencia, and Almería. Some camped overnight.

Others climbed embassy walls when appointments ran out. Union officials warned of collapse.

One municipal delegate said daily social-service requests in Madrid jumped from 1,500 to 5,500. Vox's Santiago Abascal called it an accelerating "invasion." Polish MEP Anna Bry?ka said left-wing governments were "bringing about the collapse of the Schengen Area and mocking the safety of Europeans."

When patriots protested the amnesty, they were met by socialist counter-mobs.

The labor market tells the same story. Foreign-born workers now hold 52.6 percent of unskilled construction jobs and outnumber Spaniards in those roles. Since 2019 the sector has lost more than 22,000 Spanish workers and gained 238,000 foreign ones. Bricklayers, plumbers, and electricians show the same slide. Spain's youth are not replacing the retiring generation; imported labor is.

Meanwhile, foreigners commit five times more rapes and four times more murders per capita than Spaniards. In Catalonia, 91 percent of convicted rapists are migrants, who make up 17 percent of the population. Reported rapes in Spain rose 322 percent in a decade. Penetrative rape cases more than doubled between 2019 and 2024.

The streets have turned into blood baths. Recently, a North African migrant shouted "Allah" while stabbing a young woman to death in Esplugues de Llobregat; a 58-year-old man who tried to intervene was also attacked.

The same weekend produced more stabbings and a shooting.

A man employed to evict migrant squatters was lynched and stabbed by a mob.

A Gambian migrant stabbed a police officer while shouting "Allahu Akbar."

A repeat offender stomped a local man's head.

Citizens rioted after an elderly man was beaten.

And on and on and on.

Many of the "unaccompanied minors" driving the migrant numbers are not minors at all. In Madrid, 70 percent of those tested by bone-age X-ray were adults. The same fraud appears across Europe.

Seventy percent of the country already knows the solution is removal, not more lectures about housing the next arrival.

The people who designed this system will keep calling it compassion. They will keep living somewhere the consequences do not reach. Ordinary Spaniards are the ones facing the dire fallout.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 02:00

The Economic Tsar Who Built Modern China-And Whose Reforms The CCP Is Dismantling

Zero Hedge -

The Economic Tsar Who Built Modern China-And Whose Reforms The CCP Is Dismantling

Authored by Heng He via The Epoch Times,

Former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, the hard-edged reformer who engineered China's rise from planned-economy backwater to global manufacturing giant, died this month at the age of 97.

Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji poses during a working session at the Europe-Asia summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Sept. 22, 2002. Gerard Cerles/AFP via Getty Images

His legacy-tax centralization, mass layoffs, China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and a brief, forgotten moment of tolerance toward Falun Gong-now stands as both the foundation of modern China's wealth and a stark reminder of how easily that progress can be reversed.

Zhu's Legacy of Economic Reform

After the decade-long Cultural Revolution pushed the regime to the brink, then-Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Deng Xiaoping pivoted China toward market reforms. He relied on pragmatic trial and error rather than a rigid master plan, describing his step-by-step approach as "crossing the river by feeling the stones."

Zhu executed that vision. As vice premier and premier from 1991 to 2003, China's "economic tsar" used iron-fisted reforms to engineer the country's rise, including restructuring fiscal policy, dismantling inefficient state-owned enterprises, and securing China's entry into the WTO.

Zhu was officially credited with advancing China's landmark tax-sharing reform in the 1990s, which centralized much of the country's tax revenue in Beijing. That reform undeniably strengthened the central government.

However, it stripped local governments of steady tax income, forcing them to rely on selling land to fund local budgets. Paired with state ownership of land, this shift created a "land-finance" model that drove housing prices sky-high and triggered today's ongoing property crisis.

It isn't the tax reform alone that is to blame. China's system of state and collective land ownership is what enabled large-scale land sales in the first place.

Former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji at a meeting in Beijing in July 2011. Feng Li/Getty Images

The obituary also praises Zhu for safeguarding Hong Kong's status as a global financial center. Ironically, Hong Kong's diminished standing today stems largely from policies adopted under CCP leader Xi Jinping-making praise for Zhu an implicit rebuke of China's current leadership.

WTO Entry-and Its Costs

One of Zhu's most consequential achievements was leading China to join the WTO in 2001.

To prepare the country for global trade, Zhu aggressively restructured inefficient state-owned enterprises. While this boosted efficiency, it triggered mass layoffs, displacing tens of millions of workers.

Unlike post-Cold War America, China's nascent private sector was too weak to absorb the surge of unemployed labor.

U.S. President Bill Clinton (R) responds to a question as Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji looks on during a joint news conference in the Old Executive Office Building in Washington, on April 8, 1999. Tim Sloan/AFP via Getty Images

The aggressive restructuring stripped millions of workers of their livelihoods, leaving them with virtually no safety net. While the reforms eventually sparked massive economic growth, the workers who bore the cost were largely left behind without fair compensation.

The Premier Who Called Out Shoddy Construction

When the Yangtze River dikes failed during the 1998 summer floods, Zhu inspected the breach in Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province, and discovered that the construction had cut corners and used shoddy materials. Furious, he publicly denounced the dam as a "bastard project" and dubbed it a "tofu-dregs project"-comparing the crumbling concrete to the brittle, worthless pulp residue left over from making soy curd.

As long as corruption remains a recurring public concern in China, the term "tofu-dreg project" will likely remain part of the country's political vocabulary and a defining mark of Zhu's legacy.

The Premier Who Listened-Meeting With Falun Gong

One episode stands apart from Zhu's economic legacy. In the late 1990s, Zhu and the entire Politburo Standing Committee opposed then-CCP leader Jiang Zemin's decision to suppress Falun Gong, according to insider accounts.

More than 10,000 Falun Gong practitioners gather on Fuyou Street in Beijing on April 25, 1999. Courtesy of Minghui.org

On April 25, 1999, roughly 10,000 Falun Gong practitioners gathered peacefully near Zhongnanhai, the CCP's headquarters, in Beijing to petition the authorities for freedom of belief. Earlier in the month, dozens of practitioners in Tianjin had been detained by local police for their faith.

In a bold move for an official, Zhu met directly with representatives, listened to their grievances, and ordered the release of the detained practitioners, along with an assurance that practitioners would have a lawful environment in which to pursue their practice.

The spiritual discipline was introduced to the Chinese public in 1992 and gained widespread popularity, attracting at least 70 million practitioners by the late 1990s.

At an internal leadership meeting the following day, according to insider accounts, Zhu suggested that suppression would harm the country's image and that the regime should leave Falun Gong practitioners alone. Jiang, afraid of the practice's growing popularity, responded that doing so would bring down the Party.

Months later, Jiang launched a sweeping, nationwide campaign against Falun Gong-initiating a persecution that continues today.

Reform Can Be Reversed Overnight

Zhu's death cast an unexpected shadow over Xi's plans to commemorate Jiang with unusually high political honors, an effort intended to elevate Jiang alongside the CCP's founding generation. Instead of highlighting Jiang's legacy, Zhu's passing reminded the public that the reforms of China's most prosperous era owed far more to Zhu.

It was Zhu who was behind Deng and the CCP in launching the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 1990-now a global financial powerhouse that hosts major state-owned enterprise listings.

Although Zhu was the official most responsible for driving China's reform era, Xi's policies have now largely dismantled that work. That contrast reveals the ultimate lesson of Zhu's legacy: under totalitarian rule, no amount of reform is secure-it can all be undone overnight.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 23:25

FDA Clears Blood Test To Detect Signs Of Alzheimer's Disease

Zero Hedge -

FDA Clears Blood Test To Detect Signs Of Alzheimer's Disease

Federal regulators have cleared a blood test aimed at detecting signs of Alzheimer's disease.

The Food and Drug Administration cleared a blood test known as Elecsys pTau-217 for people aged at least 55 who have shown signs of, or have been complaining of, cognitive decline, Roche announced on Aug. 24.

The test, which can be used by primary care doctors and specialists, detects a biomarker called plasma phosphorylated tau 217. In a study that ran from 2004 to 2025 and was published in JAMA, researchers found that higher levels of the biomarker were associated with an increased risk of progression to cognitive impairment.

As Zachary Stieber reports via The Epoch Times, the FDA has previously approved several other tests for Alzheimer's, beginning in 2025 with a test from Fujirebio Diagnostics that measures both pTau217 and another protein. Roche said its test is the first to measure a single biomarker.

"Elecsys pTau217 has the potential to transform how Alzheimer's is assessed across primary and specialty care," Dan Malarek, president and CEO of Roche Diagnostics North America, said in a statement.

"This kind of innovation can help bring diagnostic evaluation closer to patients and give clinicians greater confidence in determining the right step in their care."

Alzheimer's is a brain disorder that destroys a person's memory and thinking skills over time. People with the disease gradually become unable to perform tasks such as eating and walking. Many people begin experiencing symptoms such as memory difficulties between the ages of 60 and 70.

The Alzheimer's Association and other groups have welcomed the tests as a less invasive option than other methods, such as testing of cerebrospinal fluid.

"Each FDA clearance gives clinicians another validated option to work with when evaluating patients showing signs of cognitive impairment," Maria C. Carrillo, the association's chief science officer and medical affairs lead, said in a statement.

"That's real progress for a field that, for decades, had far too few tools to offer."

Dr. Carole Ho, executive vice president and president of Lilly Neuroscience, which helped develop the test, said in a statement that "for millions of families navigating the uncertainty of Alzheimer's disease, a timely diagnosis is the first and most critical step toward meaningful care."

Labcorp and Quest Diagnostics said they will carry the new test.

Once ordered by a doctor, patients can have their blood drawn for the test in a doctor's office, a Labcorp service center, or a Quest center.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 23:00

Brasília Makes Friends With Beijing

Zero Hedge -

Brasília Makes Friends With Beijing

Authored by Jake Scott via FEE,

On a Sunday night in late July, Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and China's Xi Jinping spoke for more than an hour. It was cordial and faintly triumphant, with the two governments announcing their intention to accelerate a long-stalled China-Mercosur trade agreement. Alongside this, there are plans to deepen cooperation on satellites and critical-minerals processing, and waive short-stay visa requirements.

Image Credit: Custom image by FEE

This marks a serious change for Brazil. For years, it was Brasília that had spearheaded all resistance to exactly this sort of deal within the Mercosur bloc. The reversal was as sudden as it was shocking, taking only a fortnight to emerge, following a new American tariff taking effect and the Brazilian president deciding that the cost of alignment with the United States had, at last, exceeded its benefits.

Confronted with a United States that has moved from partner to antagonist, Brazil sees itself as neither retaliating in kind nor capitulating; it is hedging, deliberately, on several fronts at once. For many observers, this is a rational reaction to the emergence of an increasingly multipolar world. But just under a century ago, this practice had a name: "pragmatic equidistance." It was the way Brazil described its international strategy of balancing relationships with competing powers without committing to either.

The ongoing and escalating international trade war fueled by retaliatory tariffs has been the main catalyst here. In late July, a 25% tariff covering a broad range of Brazilian goods came into effect; per the Brazilian National Confederation of Industry's reckoning, nearly half of all Brazilian exports to the United States are now subject to some form of additional duty. Alongside the general tariffs, a "forced-labor" levy of 12.5% was introduced by the US to enforce bans on importing goods made with forced labor abroad, which in many ways represents a globalization of America's existing ban on Chinese goods using forced labor.

It is estimated that the hardest-hit goods carry a combined tariff of 37.5%.

President Lula's response has been to reframe the introduction of these tariffs as Washington's error rather than Brazil's, calling the tariffs a "strategic mistake" in the Washington Post, and warning that the tariffs will drive Brazilian firms to replace their American suppliers with partners elsewhere.

The rhetoric is only part of it, though: Brazil has filed for consultations with the World Trade Organization to challenge both the broad tariffs and the forced-labor levy as breaches of the 1994 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The effectiveness of these consultations is up for debate given the WTO's general paralysis, but what matters more is what this reveals for Brazil's international-relations strategy: it is pragmatic equidistance on display. Brazil has filed the complaint with the WTO, while continuing negotiations with the US.

Meanwhile, Brazil is attempting to hedge its bets by engaging with the wider global economy. This month, ApexBrasil (the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency) has launched a R$105 million ($20.5 million) program to support just shy of 2,500 exporters across 57 industries in their search for new markets, including the EU, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia.

Simultaneously, the Mercosur bloc is actively pursuing parallel deals with India, Japan, and Canada, with Brazil at the heart of this strategy. Lula has enacted the Mercosur-Singapore agreement, the bloc's first with a Southeast Asian economy, under which Brazilian exports will progressively enter duty-free.

What is also interesting is what the imposition of these tariffs has meant for Lula at home. Many Brazilians read the tariff regime as a direct attempt to influence the Brazilian elections that are due to take place in October 2026, which in turn has allowed Lula to cast himself as a defender of Brazil's sovereignty against foreign interference. This strategy has borne fruit: Lula's polling has remained steady in the mid-40s, while Flávio Bolsonaro-the only other major contender-has seen his popularity steadily decline since April 2026, meaning Lula's lead has slowly widened.

It may not have helped Bolsonaro that his presidential bid launch saw him flanked by Javier Milei and Benjamin Netenyahu, with few Brazilian politicians in the room. International campaigning is increasingly common, but in a climate skeptical of foreign interference, that move may have been more than a little tone-deaf, especially given the increasingly strained relations between Argentina and Brazil.

Not only this, but when the US sent election officials to verify the integrity of Brazil's electoral system, their visas were simply denied. For a public that is heavily resistant to the sense of being managed from abroad, this was a message that landed exactly in the way it was needed to.

Most notable, however, is Brazil's attempt to sidestep all of this via improved trade relations between the Mercosur bloc and China. Of course, Mercosur is a customs union, and so all members must negotiate jointly-which is why a proposed China agreement has been formally proposed and "under study" since around 2017. In this, Brazil had been the brake, while Uruguay had spent years advocating for the trade agreement, and pursuing its own China talks whilst the other Mercosur members stalled.

In January 2023, Lula traveled to Montevideo to argue that Mercosur should secure an EU deal first, and only then negotiate with China. With this deal signed in Asunción in January 2026-after 26 years of negotiations-and coming into effect in Brazil in April, the roadblock had been cleared. At least, on Brasília's end: Argentina's President Javier Milei is ideologically opposed to China, and will likely veto any deal pursued by Mercosur. China is already Brazil's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at $188 billion, and a deal could meet Brazil's other strategic interests, such as widening agricultural access.

Regardless, Brazil has been hedging its international trade relations with careful maneuvering, and in the long run, this may be the smart move.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 22:35

Jury Weighs Whether "Darn Good Mother" Lindsay Clancy Is Criminally Liable For Murdering Her 3 Kids

Zero Hedge -

Jury Weighs Whether "Darn Good Mother" Lindsay Clancy Is Criminally Liable For Murdering Her 3 Kids

Jury deliberations in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial started on Aug. 27 after five weeks of testimony.

Clancy, a former labor and delivery nurse, is accused of killing her three young children while her now-ex-husband was running errands in January 2023.

The 36-year-old mother faces three counts of first-degree murder, one for each child: Cora, 5, Dawson, 3, and 8-month-old Callan.

Judge William Sullivan gave the jury the option to instead consider second-degree murder or manslaughter.

Only a few hours of deliberations happened before Sullivan ordered a recess until 9 a.m. on Friday at the Plymouth Superior Court in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

No verdict was reached on Thursday.

In his closing argument on Aug. 27, Jacki Thrapp reports for The Epoch Times, that defense attorney Kevin Reddington urged jurors to find Clancy not guilty by reason of insanity, alleging that “her mind was gone” during the killings and said she was in the throes of postpartum psychosis.

“This young lady is not guilty of the killing of her children because she was suffering from a disease and defect, as his honor instructed you,” Reddington told jurors in closing arguments.

“And they’re not going to be able to prove otherwise.”

Additionally, Reddington describved the accused murderer by saying: "This young lady did nothing wrong in her life. She was… a darn good mother."

Clancy admitted to strangling her kids with exercise bands in the basement of their home in a coastal Boston suburb, slicing her wrists and neck with a knife, and jumping out of a window in a failed suicide attempt, which left her paralyzed.

Her now-ex-husband, Patrick, said that months before the incident, the mother told him she was having thoughts of suicide and harming their kids.

Clancy was also prescribed medications and checked into a psychiatric hospital ahead of the incident.

Her then-husband testified that Clancy had a “normal” demeanor when he left to run errands that day.

When he returned, he found his injured wife, who informed him that the kids were in the basement.

Clancy detailed what happened in a call with him a week after the incident, he said.

“She heard a man’s voice telling her that if she didn’t do ​it now, she would lose her chance or something like that,” he testified.

Prosecutors acknowledged that Clancy suffered from mental health issues but said she carried out the killings while knowing it was wrong.

“This case is not about our mental health system or how it treats women,” Assistant ​District Attorney Jennifer Sprague told jurors.

“That’s a distraction to get you angry and passionate about an important issue, but an issue that’s not on trial here.”

Clancy faces life in prison with no possibility of parole if she is convicted on any of the first-degree murder charges she faces.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 22:10

States Race To Cut Food Stamp Errors Before Penalties Kick In

Zero Hedge -

States Race To Cut Food Stamp Errors Before Penalties Kick In

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,

States are racing to reduce faulty payments to food stamp recipients, in a bid to avoid penalties included in the signature budget bill passed by Republicans last year.

Starting in October 2027, states with payment error rates of 6 percent or higher must cover 5, 10, or 15 percent of SNAP benefit costs, depending on the payment error rate.

Even though the deadline is more than a year out, enrollment in the program has dropped by more than 5 million recipients as a result of the stricter rules, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

Forty-one states and the District of Columbia made improper payments of more than 6 percent in 2025, according to the Department of Agriculture. Nearly half of states will have to pay more than $100 million in penalties, according to publicly available federal data.

Just nine states fell below the 6 percent error threshold in the 2025 fiscal year: Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Four states are considering dropping the food stamp program entirely as a result of the new rules, according to a survey by the American Public Human Services Association.

California, New York, and Florida would be responsible for more than $1 billion in SNAP costs if they failed to reduce their rates of erroneous payments. Texas would owe around $750 million.

For several states, however, a provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill delays the cost-sharing requirement for an additional two years. Nicknamed "the Alaska Carveout," the provision allows states with improper payment rates of 13.34 percent or higher in fiscal 2025 to put off the cost-sharing requirement until fiscal 2029.

Similarly, states exceeding that threshold in fiscal 2026 can put off cost-sharing until fiscal 2030.

In addition to next year's deadline, beginning this October, states will bear 75 percent of the costs to administer the food stamp program.That's up from the 50 percent share paid by states since the program was started in 1964.

The tighter rules address a "financing mismatch" in the food stamp program, according to the Cato Institute, a policy research organization. For decades, states have processed SNAP applications and distributed benefits, while financial consequences have fallen overwhelmingly on federal taxpayers. That gives states little incentive to control waste and prevent fraud.

SNAP payment errors totaled more than $10 billion in 2025. More than 87 percent of that amount was due to overpayments.

A sign indicates that a store accepts SNAP benefits in Miami on April 21, 2026. Joe Raedle/Getty Images 'Significant Waste'

SNAP is a federally funded program, administered by the states, that provides food benefits to low-income families. In 2025, federal taxpayers spent about $103 billion on SNAP benefits and nearly $7 billion in administrative fees.

With an overall error rate of 10.6 percent, nearly one in nine food stamp allotments went to an ineligible recipient or was paid in the wrong amount.

State agencies made improper payments mainly because they did not verify recipients' eligibility criteria, such as citizenship, employment, finances, identity, residency, and household size, before making a payment, according to the Government Accountability Office.

Although the 2025 error rate decreased slightly from previous years, it still showed "significant waste" at the state level, according to a June statement from the Department of Agriculture.

Errors can stem from either state agencies or recipients. While state agencies can make mistakes when updating recipient information or processing payments, recipients may also forget to report income changes or additional family members.

Those are "honest mistakes" rather than intentional fraud, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said in a July report. Even so, the errors prove that "state accountability is severely lacking in SNAP," Rollins said in a June statement.

People line up to receive free food during a Thanksgiving food giveaway at Shiloh Mercy House in Oakland, Calif., on Nov. 24, 2025. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act took effect in July 2025, participation in the food stamp program dropped 12 percent-more than 5 million-to 37 million this April, according to Department of Agriculture data released in July.

Rollins attributed the decline to the administration's crackdown on fraud and ineligible recipients.

The downward trend may continue, as 11 states reported that they may narrow eligibility policies when costs change.

State Response

Error rates might not reflect the true picture of how a state distributes money, historical reports suggest.

A 2015 audit by the Office of Inspector General found that states hired outside consultants and error review committees to mitigate individual errors identified by quality control, rather than addressing the root causes of eligibility inaccuracies.

And in 2014, the Department of Agriculture could not validate state-reported error rates in 42 of 53 state agencies because of date-quality issues.

Nonetheless, a July survey of 39 states from the American Public Human Services Association found that agencies across the country are "working incredibly hard" to reduce error rates by addressing root causes.

States reported that they will invest in workforce training, root-cause analysis, and technology upgrades to improve payment accuracy.

Virginia, which would face 15 percent cost-sharing based on its 2025 errors, has stopped self-attestation of eligibility since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed.

It previously allowed applicants to self-report expenses and incomes.

President Donald Trump shows his signature on the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” at the White House on July 4, 2025. Since the bill took effect, participation in the food stamp program dropped 12 percent, according to Department of Agriculture data released in July. Brendan Smialowski/Pool/ AFP via Getty Images

Louisiana is offering a $1,500 bonus to staff who maintain an error rate of 4 percent or lower.

The agency is also automating checks on household income to reduce unintentional errors, which account for 62 percent of the state's inaccuracies, according to the think tank Invest in Louisiana.

Mississippi is updating its 35-year-old eligibility systems to ensure program integrity, according to the Mississippi Department of Human Services.

Minnesota is investing millions of dollars to modernize decades-old technology used to administer state programs, according to the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Each change suggests that new financial accountability rules are making a difference, according to the American Enterprise Institute.

Workers and volunteers help distribute food boxes at a drive-through food distribution facility, in response to a federal government shutdown and SNAP/CalFresh food benefits delays, in City of Industry, Calif., on Nov. 5, 2025. Mario Tama/Getty Images

The American Public Human Services Association survey reported trade-offs for increased accuracy, including timeliness of benefit payments and a delay in EBT chip card implementation.

And four states indicated that they may drop out of SNAP altogether or pause participation in the program as a result of the cost-sharing provisions. The survey report did not disclose which states are considering dropping out of the program.

The American Public Human Services Association did not respond to a request for comment.

The 'Alaska Carveout'

Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, states with error rates at 13.34 percent or higher will secure a two-year delay in cost sharing. The "Alaska Carveout" provision was negotiated and secured by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) prior to voting on the budget bill.

In a July 2025 letter to Alaskans, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said the state had worked hard to include delayed cost-sharing in the act because it had the highest payment error rate in the country.

The provision currently affects six states and the District of Columbia. Those include Alaska, New Mexico, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, and Oregon.

But the exemption may precipitate a reverse effect by rewarding the worst-performing states while penalizing those working to reduce their error rates, according to a July report from the Cato Institute.

To delay penalties, states could slow efforts in correcting errors and keep improper payment rates elevated, according to the think tank.

Data Sharing

In an effort to overhaul fraud, waste, and abuse in government programs, the Trump administration is pushing to codify data sharing between states and the federal government.

"We need to know where your tax dollars are going, and if the state of California and the state of New York aren't going to tell us, we need Congress to force them to tell us," Vice President JD Vance told a fraud task force roundtable on Aug. 5.

Technological verification and data-sharing measures can solve the majority of integrity problems in government programs, said Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff for policy.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 21:45

Mayor Of Indiana City Claims Race Discrimination After Delayed Utility Repairs

Zero Hedge -

Mayor Of Indiana City Claims Race Discrimination After Delayed Utility Repairs

If a group's entire world view is built on the notion that they are perpetual victims because of their race, every time something bad happens to them they are going to go looking for racism as the scapegoat.  In other words, they are going to see "racism" under every rock and behind every tree.  They will even see racism in a power outage. 

When it come to the black community in the US, though, most of the bad things that happen in their neighborhoods are directly caused by their own behavior. 

In mid-August a powerful windstorm hit northwest Indiana. Gusts reached around 99 mph in Gary, comparable to a Category 2 hurricane.  The violent weather toppled trees onto lines, snapped hundreds of poles, and damaged transmission structures and substations.

The repairs have been difficult and slow moving.  This week NIPSCO (the Northern Indiana Public Service Company) reported that 99% of customers in the region had their power back, however, Gary Mayor Eddie Melton (Democrat and mayor since 2024) took to the left-wing media to make political hay out of the incident.

In an interview with far-left activist "journalist" Don Lemon, the mayor answered in the affirmative when asked if he thought the large black population of Gary was the reason the utility companies were slow to finish repairs, suggesting that there was a racial element to the city's longer wait time.    

Other media outlets also asserted that Gary was being singled out for slower repairs because of the community's 75% - 80% black population; comparing the event to the disastrous FEMA response to Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans.  Indiana Governor Mike Braun (a Republican) has called for an investigation into the two week power outages in some areas of the state, though he has not supported any arguments of racial discrimination.  

The delays in Gary can be easily explained by simply asking NIPSCO and checking with local police:  The company had to hold off on repairs and find extra security for their line workers after scouts identifying damages were shot at in a predominantly black neighborhood. At least one NIPSCO vehicle was hit multiple times by gunfire and the workers pulled out of the area. 

Police were called to the scene but never found the shooters. This news was widely reported, yet the Gary Mayor and the left-wing media have apparently ignored it.

As a result of the attack, the city had to coordinate with city police, Indiana State Police, and state officials to ensure crews were protected during the restoration process. The city added that ISP sent additional troopers to assist local forces.  This takes time and adds extensive delays.

In other words, the violence inherent in black neighborhoods led to their own suffering.  The inability to behave, even during a grid-down crisis, made it impossible for work crews to do their jobs. 

The opportunism of activist politicians looking for racial victim-points is a dying business.  Americans have had enough of race hysteria, BLM and the eternal quest for minority handouts and pity.  Mayor Eddie Melton and agitators like Don Lemon will likely be dragged by the public for their behavior here. 

That said, the crisis represents yet another example of leftist activists deliberately jumping to conclusions.  They are so desperate to make the public believe "systemic racism" is real that they are willing to agitate and exaggerate for the sake of narrative.  Eventually, they will end up creating the very anti-minority sentiment that they claim to be fighting against.  Keep accusing people of racism after they tried to help you, and they will stop helping you.            

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 21:20

Trump's Energy Policy Could Cost US 540 GW Of Renewables, Says NRDC

Zero Hedge -

Trump's Energy Policy Could Cost US 540 GW Of Renewables, Says NRDC

By Diana DiGangi of UtilityDive

Aspects of the Trump administration’s energy policy - such as the rollback of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, the introduction of new tariffs and offshore wind lease buybacks - could cause the U.S to lose between 390 GW and 540 GW of new wind, solar and energy storage capacity over the next decade, according to projections from the Natural Resources Defense Council.

“Crucially, these lost projects are not actually replaced with other sources of new power,” the NRDC said in a Wednesday report. “At most, only 9 GW of additional gas capacity is added with Trump’s policies in place.”

The report cited near-term supply chain bottlenecks for gas turbines, volatile fuel prices, “and the general cost-competitiveness of new renewables relative to gas” as reasons for the NRDC’s low estimate for new additional gas investment. 

An August report from Global Energy Monitor counts 189 GW of gas-fired capacity currently in the announced, pre-construction, and construction phases in the U.S., a number which “nearly doubled” in the first half of the year, “but uncertainty persists about how and when this capacity gets built.”

“Two-thirds of gas-fired capacity in development globally, and more than half of projects tied to data centers, do not have a named turbine/engine manufacturer,” Global Energy Monitor said. “Nearly one-quarter of projects earmarked for data centers do not have a named start year. Turbine supply constraints, financing uncertainty, local data center moratoriums, and mounting public opposition leave the true scale of the gas power buildout uncertain.”

Amanda Levin, NRDC’s director of policy analysis, said during a Tuesday press call that the group’s modeling still anticipates “significant growth in renewables under this administration. But we don’t go nearly as far, and we lose more than half of everything that we expected to be able to build with the combination of market forces and proactive policy.”

Both Levin and the Global Energy Monitor report noted that due to order backlogs for gas turbines for combined-cycle plants, developers who need to bring firm power online quickly are turning to alternatives like simple-cycle or reciprocating engine plants, which “are less efficient than combined-cycle plants and carry higher emissions per unit of electricity generated,” Global Energy Monitor said.

Levin said this trend supports the NRDC’s position that the Environmental Protection Agency’s gas power plant emissions rule should not be repealed, though the Trump administration has announced its intention to do so.

The trend “highlights actually the value of these types of standards … which is that the market is not acting in a perfectly rational economic way,” she said. “These types of regulations could prevent this type of highly polluting type of power generation by requiring us to think about how we are building out this gas that we’re trying to build over the next few years to meet this growing load.”

The NRDC’s report also forecast an increase in power costs due to a need to “rely more heavily on the existing, higher-cost legacy fossil fuel system” in absence of new renewables generation. The power sector will spend $5 billion to $15 billion more on fossil fuels, the NRDC said, while claiming $45 billion less in IRA tax incentives, relative to the group’s January 2025 Snapshot case.

“By 2035, average household electricity rates are projected to increase by an additional 4.2% to 5.5% nationwide, relative to the January 2025 Snapshot case,” the NRDC’s report said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/27/2026 - 20:55

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