South Korean President Announces No Military Support To US Hormuz Mission

South Korea has belatedly made a big decision after starting months ago it found itself among key Washington allies directly called upon by President Trump to provide urgent security help for Strait of Hormuz energy transit, amid the war with Iran.

President Lee Jae Myung has on Friday announced he will ⁠not deploy the military to the ⁠Middle East, though his statement also suggested troops could play a role on the peripheries of the conflict.

August 2025: President Trump meets with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the Oval Office, Reuters.

Resisting direct calls from Trump to support the campaign against Iran, Lee made clear to a news conference: "There won’t be deployment that would involve or enter war. I can tell you that very clearly. We won’t deploy military assets in any form to that end."

"It is also clear that we must do the minimum as other countries do to ​protect our commercial shipping and crude shipments, and also the safety of ‌our people," he said. At the moment, the South Korean Navy only conducts patrols off the coast of Somali as part of international anti-piracy efforts.

Lee's words did seem to leave open a potential greater future role in terms of South Korea safeguarding global shipping in the region, but it would obviously be significantly away from the potential reach of any Iranian missile or drones, or that of their proxies.

This is a long-awaited decision. While Europe and basically the whole rest of the world has rejected Trump calls to send military assets to assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz, South Korea is in a tougher spot given the many decades-long, large American troop presence on the peninsula, safeguarding the south from possible attack from North Korea. The country is also effectively under America's nuclear protection umbrella. 

Last week, Lee's press secretary stated the government had not yet finalized its policy but was "cautiously assessing it".

But then it got a warning from Tehran. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei warned on X on Sept.7. "The military presence or operational participation of other nations in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would inevitably be viewed as direct support for the party committing acts of aggression, and would lead to serious consequences."

And so Seoul has found itself diplomatically between a rock and a hard place:

Trump has criticized Seoul for what he called insufficient support for the Iran war and scaled back major joint military drills by the two countries’ armed forces this summer, a move that unsettled the U.S. ally.

Committing South Korean troops to the Gulf region has also seemed unpopular among the Korean populace. Rare anti-war protests have been going strong this month in front of the US Embassy in Seoul.

Locals have at times carried signs that read "Do Not Join a War of Aggression" and "No Military Deployment to Hormuz," while protesters have chanted, "We cannot send our young people into a sea of death," according to prior descriptions by the AFP.

Not going to appease Washington: "the minimum necessary activities"...

South Korea will not deploy troops or military assets to intervene in the Iran war, President Lee said Friday.

“There will be no involvement or intervention in the war,” Lee said, adding Seoul would carry out only “the minimum necessary activities” to protect South Korean… pic.twitter.com/1lseOq10W1

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 18, 2026

"Sending our troops to an illegal war waged by the United States is unacceptable," Choi Young-ok, a member of Korean Peace Solidarity for Sovereignty and Reunification, a group that is highly critical of the US military presence in South Korea, told AFP.

"There is no reason for us to send troops when no other country has done so or said it would," added Choi, who also warned that sending South Korean troops would "inevitably lead to casualties." Now, Seoul is nervously awaiting Trump's reaction and coming wrath.

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 11:20

AfD Preps Talks With Moscow To Reopen Cheap Gas Flows To Germany

It didn't take long for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party - fresh off its historic taking of 43.8% of the vote in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt election earlier this month which left Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shaken - to embark on ties which are a serious shot across the bow and slap in the face to both Berlin and Brussels.

Reuters is on Friday reporting that AfD leadership is preparing for possible talks with President Putin and his economic envoy and top negotiator Kirill Dmitriev focused on restoring Russian gas supplies to Germany.

via Reuters

The meeting could take place next year, as early as March 2027, and would be spearheaded by AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.

This is precisely what German voters supported in the regional election, and the AfD made no secret of its plans to seek turning the Russian energy tap back on. Weidel made clear in a June interview, "Cheap energy from Russia was the secret of the success of 'Made in Germany'. We need it back." 

"The loss of this energy has set us back years. Hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost," the AfD co-leader said at the time. "It has made us dependent on ​the United States, which sells us energy at far higher prices."

Russia had prior to the start of the Ukraine war supplied over half of Germany's natural gas, alongside more than a third of the country's crude oil imports.

Russian natgas to Germany was halted in stages, in tandem with the major Nord Stream bombings and investigation, as Berlin eventually found alternative suppliers like Norway, the Netherlands and increased its reliance on LNG imports.

Many Germans have been sick and tired of seeing daily living prices go up while resources and untold billions are siphoned off for the Zelensky government in the Ukraine war.

Getty Images

While nothing has yet to be officially announced or confirmed by the Russian side or through any AfD official statement, Reuters points to a key caveat based on its sources: "The meeting would only happen if a peace framework was agreed first between Russia and Ukraine, ​and the organisers hoped it would bring together the AfD, Russia and the United States, the person said. Possible locations for the summit included ⁠Israel, the United Arab Emirates or India, they added," the report says.

Earlier, we featured commentary by Andrew Korybko which seeks to summarize the mood in both Moscow and among the 'hard-rightward' turning German streets:

Finally, the economic errors concern the EU's sanctions on Russian energy, which led to the bloc replacing inexpensive long-term gas contracts with Russia with expensive market-priced imports from elsewhere. Prices are now nearly ten times higher than before and "may well rise even further." Putin also criticized the EU's gas storage policies for being "unconcerned with the technical condition of these storage facilities and the physical volumes involved." All of this adversely affects the EU's economy.

All in all, Putin is arguing that the AfD's rise is an electoral revolt against these policies, all of which center on Russia. This doesn't mean that the party or its supporters are "pro-Russian", let alone "Russian puppets", just that they understand the importance of pragmatic ties with Russia for their country's political interests, security, and economic development. Obsessive anti-Russian fearmongering, risking World War III over Ukraine, and dumping inexpensive Russian energy haven't helped Germany at all.

"Bests interests for Germany" being prioritized, where energy supplies "are cheapest, namely from Russia"...

German AfD Leader Alice Weidel on Russia:

We have to obtain fossil fuels from wherever natural gas and oil are cheapest — namely, from Russia.

It is in our own security interests as well as our economic interests to have good relations with Russia. pic.twitter.com/FkKKOpCDAo

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 14, 2026

As a reminder, there were already some deeply provocative diplomatic AfD moves back in June, with AfD foreign-policy spokesman Markus Frohnmaier having traveled to St. Petersburg to meet with Dmitriev and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, urging the reopening of the Nord Stream pipeline.

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 10:45

The Purge: Princeton Faculty Reach Perfect Zero Support For Republicans

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

We recently discussed how Yale faculty reached academic nirvana after years of purging departments of conservatives and Republicans. The university finally showed zero political donations to Republicans. Now Princeton can claim that it has succeeded in a similar cleansing, according to a new study by Princetonians for Free Speech (PFS). The study shows that 98% of political donations went to Democrats or Democrat-affiliated groups and 0% went to Republicans or affiliated groups.

Political contributions are one measure that helps gauge the degree of ideological orthodoxy and intolerance in higher education. While some academics simply do not make contributions and may still hold conservative views, the study still offers another insight into the political preferences of those who do make such contributions. The study does not mean that we can assume that the number of academics with conservative or libertarian values is zero. (There are obvious outliers such as Robby George). However, few would dispute that it reaffirms the extreme imbalance of ideological views at this and other universities.

Professors often express shock at the thought that there would be any political or ideological litmus test for hiring. I have also opposed such measures. However, the hypocrisy is crushing. Today's faculty are responsible for a near-complete ideological purging of their ranks. They have created a hostile environment for anyone with conservative or libertarian viewpoints, including students who rarely have the opportunity to hear from a professor from a center-right perspective at most schools.

Most recently, forty percent of college faculty admitted that they would vote against any Trump supporter seeking an academic position regardless of their scholarship or teaching ability. Keep in mind that this is only the professors willing to admit to such bias.

Some are more open than others.

I had dinner with a Harvard Law Professor, who expressed disbelief that I expected him to vote for any faculty applicants who held views he considered wrong. When I noted that I regularly vote for faculty candidates who hold opposing views, he just shrugged and said that, if he rejects their views, he cannot vote for those views to be taught to students.

There are few remaining conservatives or libertarians on law school faculties, which have been purged of dissenting voices through a biased hiring and promotion system. Despite years of complaints and declining public trust in higher education, faculty members continue to reinforce bias and orthodoxy in our schools.

I wrote about the rise of this new McCarthyism on the left seven years ago.

Recently, I discussed the example of Fordham University School of Law professor John Pfaff, who called for "repercussions" for professors who do not "recant" their view that the 14th Amendment does not protect birthright citizenship.

Not long ago, I debated Professor Randall Kennedy at Harvard Law School about the school's lack of ideological diversity. I respect Kennedy, and I do not view him as anti-free speech or intolerant. Yet when I noted the statistics on the vanishing number of conservative students and faculty in comparison to the nation, Kennedy responded that Harvard "is an elite university" and does not have to "look like America."

Of course, the problem is that Harvard does not even look like Massachusetts, which is nearly 30 percent Republican.

At schools like Yale and Princeton, they have achieved near 100% for Democrats (with only a couple of percent going for independent or socialist causes). Yet, if you ask faculty about the purging of their ranks, they will often shrug and say that they just cannot find a conservative or libertarian who is intellectually worthy of an appointment to their schools. It was the same absurd rationalization that was once used to justify not hiring minorities or women.

I just had a debate with a William & Mary law professor who admitted there is no other rational explanation for the virtual absence of conservatives and libertarians than systemic bias. Indeed, if a company were to go to court to say that there was nothing intentional in a virtual absence of minority employees, it would be laughed out of court.

Of course, nothing is laughable about the state of higher education. This generation of administrators and faculty are destroying our educational institutions because they cannot set aside their political bias and intolerance for the benefit of their schools. Higher education has reached record lows in public trust. Yet, these professors and deans are insulated from such public opinion. They are often financially insulated from the economic impact of such isolation. In higher education, the echo chamber works to their personal benefit, increasing their opportunities for writing and conferences. They also do not face opposing views of their scholarship or viewpoints.

Recently, I participated in a debate with the President of the American Association of University Professors (AAUP). He doubled down on his call for universities to pursue more political agendas and activism. AAUP later broke its long-standing apolitical tradition and endorsed Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

This is why I have advised university presidents who want to restore intellectual diversity that they cannot rely on faculty members. With enough donor and faculty pressure, deans may add a single conservative, but they have shown they are unwilling to make real changes to the academic echo chamber they have created.

In the same way, I have encouraged state legislatures to tie further public subsidies to real and substantial changes in creating intellectual diversity among faculty.

If we are to protect these bastions of free speech, legislatures will need to play a more active role in addressing the exclusion of both faculty candidates and speakers on public campuses. Too many faculty members still take the view that citizens are a captive audience expected to keep funding their departments, while excluding conservative or dissenting views held by many, if not most, citizens in a given state.

If faculty members want to maintain echo chambers for their own viewpoints, they should seek private donors to sustain such intolerance and orthodoxy.

Legislatures can demand evidence that schools maintain intellectually diverse faculty when determining the level of continued support from citizens. Otherwise, it is ridiculous to expect the public to subsidize their ideological echo chambers of faculty.

For schools like Princeton, donors clearly do not want or expect intellectual diversity. They keep donating to a school that has systematically purged its ranks and now runs from the left to the far left.

As these surveys confirm what we already know about the intellectual intolerance of today's faculty and administrators, they can at least spare us the performative denials. They should embrace their bias and dogmatism. Own it. This is what they have built through years of ideological agendas and intolerance.

After all, how many academic institutions can claim true perfection? Princeton is effectively a closed shop for Republicans. "Rah rah rah Tiger, tiger, tiger / Sis, sis, sis / Boom, boom, boom, ah! / Princeton! Princeton! Princeton!"

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of "Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 10:25

Note: This guest essay was written by someone who works for a regulated entity and is not authorized to speak publicly on corporate or market issues. They have been closely following the evolution of the mass surveillance situation since early 2025. 

 

Why Jessica Burbank’s Flock investigation deserved consideration for an Investigative Documentary Emmy

There are two ways for an investigative journalist to be first. One is to publish a story before another reporter does. The rarer kind is to recognize that something is an important story before everyone else sees its importance.

Jessica Burbank did the latter.

In August 2025, Burbank produced an hour-long documentary investigating Flock Safety, the rapidly expanding provider of automated license-plate readers and other surveillance technology. Her starting point was hardly the stuff of national headlines: a municipal contract in the affluent village of Scarsdale, New York.

What Burbank found there became a window into something much larger.

That matters because the National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences has an Emmy category almost tailor-made for this kind of work. NATAS describes Outstanding Investigative Documentary as films that expose “wrongdoing, corruption or hidden truths through deep reporting and original access.”

In other words, work that holds powerful institutions accountable and brings new evidence or revelations to light. Measured against that standard, Burbank deserved serious consideration for an Emmy.

On April 8, 2025, Scarsdale’s Village Board approved its Flock contract. The resolution had not appeared on the published agenda. After a presentation and executive session, the Board amended its agenda and approved the contract 6–1. The procedural portion took mere seconds.

Burbank’s documentary reconstructs what preceded that vote and what residents hadn’t been told.

Using records obtained under New York’s Freedom of Information Law, she established that Village officials had been communicating with Flock for months before the public presentation. The incoming police chief was invited to meet with the company the day after his selection and before formally taking office. On March 31, he emailed that “the map is approved,” referring to proposed camera locations—before the public presentation, contract approval, or funding.

That alone is solid accountability journalism.

But Burbank didn’t stop there.

A records request seeking market research and analysis of competing vendors produced only a sole-source justification signed by Flock’s CEO. Burbank searched elsewhere and found versions of similar Flock documents in government records around the country. She then identified communities where Flock contracts had followed strikingly similar low-visibility paths.

In Lucas County, Ohio, commissioners approved a $250,000 Flock agreement among a group of routine items, only to attempt to rescind it a week later after a commissioner reconsidered what they had authorized.

This is the machinery of investigative journalism: find an anomaly, obtain the records, test the official explanation, search for a pattern, and confront the subject with what you find.

Burbank did that last part, too. She interviewed Flock’s national communications director and questioned the company about its contracting practices and the similarities she had uncovered among municipalities. The film does not simply present critics of Flock; it puts Burbank’s findings directly to Flock and gives the company an opportunity to answer them.

Then the investigation makes its most important leap.

Scarsdale isn’t really the story. The network is.

The documentary explains that Flock’s distinguishing feature isn’t simply its cameras. It is the ability, where agencies participate in sharing, to connect searches across jurisdictions. Burbank examines a Texas sheriff’s investigation involving a woman who traveled across state lines for an abortion and gets Flock itself to acknowledge that searching cameras in other participating localities is a capability of its system.

From there emerges the film’s central insight: a national surveillance infrastructure doesn’t necessarily arise from an act of Congress or a presidential directive. It can emerge incrementally—one police department, one salesperson, one municipal contract and sometimes one barely noticed local vote at a time.

As Burbank puts it near the film’s conclusion, one might imagine that creation of a national camera network would require “high-profile debate on the nightly news” and congressional action. Instead, she observes, it can take little more than seconds at a town-board meeting and a police chief’s signature.

That observation looks considerably more important today than it did when Burbank made it.

There was also unusually immediate evidence of impact. Her written investigation was published August 2, 2025. On August 4, Scarsdale’s police chief sent the Village Board a memorandum concerning the Flock contract. On August 6, the Village canceled it. Burbank carefully stops short of claiming that her reporting caused the reversal, suggesting instead that journalism and sustained public participation “might” have mattered.

That restraint is important. Investigative journalism should establish what the evidence supports, not claim credit it cannot prove.

But the strongest argument for Burbank’s work may be one that only became fully visible afterward. She was early. The national controversy she identified in 2025 did not fade. It grew.

Flock and interconnected ALPR networks subsequently became subjects of far broader scrutiny over privacy, immigration enforcement, abortion investigations, police misuse and the extraordinary power created when thousands of local cameras become searchable beyond the communities that purchased them.

In other words, Burbank didn’t simply get to the Flock story early. She identified why it was going to become a national story. That distinction matters.

There are investigations that expose misconduct everyone already understands to be important. They can be extraordinary journalism. But there is another, rarer form of investigative reporting: finding something that appears small, recognizing the system concealed inside it and showing the audience why it will matter before conventional wisdom catches up.

Burbank began with a 37-second vote in a suburban village and found the architecture of a national controversy.

Her documentary ends with a sentence that now sounds remarkably prescient:

“The story of mass surveillance and Flock Safety is one I’m just beginning to tell.”

She was right.

None of this means Burbank was owed an Emmy. NATAS’s documentary categories encompass extraordinary work from some of the best-resourced documentary organizations in the world, and an independent production should be judged by the same standard of excellence.

But that is precisely why Burbank’s accomplishment deserves attention. NATAS says an Outstanding Investigative Documentary should uncover hidden truths through deep reporting and original access, hold powerful actors accountable, and bring new evidence or revelations to light.

Burbank did those things.

And she did one more: she recognized the significance of the story before much of the country did. That isn’t merely good timing. It’s one of the hallmarks of great investigative journalism.

 

 

Sources:
Video: You’re Being Watched: The Company Behind America’s Mass Surveillance Takeover

Millions in Public Funds, Zero Public Input: Flock’s Surveillance System Might Already Be Overseeing Your Community
The $7.5 billion surveillance company Flock Safety is operating in 49 states and over 5,000 communities, but the residents of Scarsdale, NY, are fighting back.
Jessica Burbank
Dropsite. Aug 02, 2025

 

 

The post She Saw the Flock Story Coming… appeared first on The Big Picture.

Treasury Sanctions Crypto Exchange Behind Iran's Bitcoin Tolls On Hormuz Ships

Via Decrypt.co,

The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned BitBank, naming the Iranian exchange it says carried the Bitcoin that shipping companies paid for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since June, the Office of Foreign Assets Control said, the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used BitBank to pass the payments it collects on to the Iranian regime. That authority was the body charging vessels in Bitcoin for transit rights, a scheme Treasury designated in July.

Today, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated key components of the Iranian regime's digital assets-based sanctions evasion infrastructure. Targets include BitBank, a priority digital assets...

— Treasury Department (@USTreasury) September 17, 2026

Between June and July, Treasury says, BitBank was used to move "hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin" to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

BitBank is controlled by Babak Zanjani, an Iranian financier OFAC designated in January. Sentenced to death in Iran in 2016 for embezzling from the National Iranian Oil Company, he had his sentence commuted in 2024 and resurfaced last year backing regime-linked ventures. Treasury says he has been advertising BitBank on his social media accounts since at least 2024.

Four more designations

The action also covers Pishtaz Simorgh Electronic Trade Company, which built BitBank's software and is a subsidiary of the already-designated Dot One Value Creation Group, along with three Dot One executives: Hossein Ali Zaker Hossein, Mohammad Mahdi Zaker Hossein and Seyed Adel Heidari.

Treasury describes the first as involved in most of Zanjani's sanctions evasion, including oil exports, and says he has brokered digital asset transactions that ended up with the IRGC.

All five were designated under Executive Order 13902, which the administration extended in August to cover anyone operating in Iran's digital asset sector. It is the authority Treasury has been using since to work through the network, including the crypto exchanges it designated for laundering Iranian funds.

"Efforts to finance the Iranian regime using cryptocurrencies are not beyond OFAC's reach," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

"If you support the Iranian regime, the Department of the Treasury will sanction you."

The designations fall under Operation Economic Outcast, the campaign Bessent announced on August 24 and dubbed Economic D-Day, which Treasury says is aimed at severing Iran's remaining economic lifelines with help from the EU, the UK and Gulf partners.

U.S. assets belonging to the five are blocked, as are any entities they own half or more of, and non-U.S. firms dealing with them risk secondary sanctions.

Traders do not expect the pressure to lift soon. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, the odds of Washington announcing an end to its naval blockade of Iranian shipping by September 30 have fallen to 10%, down 30 points. Even a December 31 deadline is only a 60% shot.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 09:40

Despite 'Soft' Survey Strength, US Manufacturing Unexpectedly Tumbled In August

US Industrial Production disappointed in August, unchanged MoM vs expectations of a 0.3% MoM rise.

Capacity Utilization was flat MoM (slight disappointment to expectations...

Worse still, manufacturing production seemingly hit an unexpected wall in August, falling 0.3% MoM versus an expectation of rising 0.3% MoM. That was the biggest monthl;y drop since Oct 2025 and dragged growth down to just 0.9% YoY...

This was 'odd' since ISM Manufacturing survey data has shown a sizable uptick this year...

...or maybe it's just another useless survey signal?

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 09:30

Defense Stocks Fall Out Of Favor. Polymarket Might Have The Answer As To Why

The S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index is little changed year to date, despite conflicts across Eurasia and expectations that a coming rearmament cycle will substantially boost missile and bomb production. The muted performance highlights a disconnect between investor appetite and the Trump administration's anticipated expansion of defense production.

Allyson Gordon, UBS head of Americas sector specialists, explained in a note to clients on Thursday that US aerospace and defense stocks were being weighed down by elevated bond yields and weakness in individual names.

ATI, Carpenter Technology, RTX and Lockheed Martin were among the names drawing attention, Gordon said. She said her trading desk attributed much of the weakness to broader sentiment and investor fatigue with the aerospace trade, rather than a clear deterioration in operating conditions.

"Some investors have pointed to Wednesday's weakness in Boeing as a possible contributor to today's pressure on original equipment names, although the desk has not heard anything from recent management meetings that would explain the magnitude of the move. In fact, recent feedback has generally been more constructive. On the aftermarket side, GE was said to have delivered a confident message on demand trends, with no signs of weakness emerging in 2026 or 2027," the analyst said. 

She continued: 

Defense shares also struggled, with LMT coming under pressure during management commentary on margins. However, the reaction appeared larger than any incremental change in the company's message versus Q2. More broadly, the sector has fallen back out of favor following the post-Q2 earnings squeeze, and investors remain reluctant to add exposure despite increasingly reasonable valuations. Feedback around Gavin's recent LMT upgrade has largely centered on a wait-and-see approach, with many investors preferring to stay on the sidelines until after the midterms.

The desk continues to field questions about whether defense could serve as a relative refuge amid broader market volatility. While that argument reflects a market increasingly driven by a process of elimination, investor interest has recently gravitated more toward select government IT names, where positive reactions to Q2 results have shown greater staying power.

A chart comparing the inverse 30-year Treasury yield with the UBS Aerospace basket highlights how a wide divergence that emerged earlier this summer has now largely closed, underscoring the extent to which aerospace equities have repriced alongside the rates backdrop.

The broader problem for defense bulls is a lack of willing buyers. Following a rally after second-quarter earnings, the sector has slipped out of favor again. Why is that?

One possible explanation is investor concern that a change in Senate control could complicate negotiations over the timing, size, and composition of defense funding. Congress determines appropriations, making congressional negotiations key to the funding process.

Our chart compares Polymarket pricing on Senate control after the midterms with the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index, with one series inverted. The comparison may suggest why investors are exiting the trade. 

Beyond the repricing of defense stocks due to rising bond yields that Gordon described, uncertainty surrounding post-election defense funding negotiations offers another reasonable explanation for investor caution.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 09:20

Adult Film Stars Join Left-Wing Voter Registration Push Ahead Of Midterms

Via American Greatness,

A progressive voter-registration group is turning to adult film performers and a $100,000 advertising campaign in an effort to reach Georgia voters ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Hot2Vote’s Atlanta campaign features about 100 adult performers urging residents to check their voter-registration status, according to reporting Thursday on the effort.

The campaign is expected to use digital advertising, videos, pin-up-style posters and appearances, with some ads geographically targeted around adult entertainment venues.

Adult performers Kimmy Kimm, Cherie DeVille and King Noire are among those participating in videos directing Georgians to verify their registration.

The effort follows significant maintenance of Georgia’s voter rolls. In 2025, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s office sent cancellation notices to 477,883 registrations that had remained inactive through the 2022 and 2024 general elections. State officials said the process was required under state and federal law and gave affected voters 40 days to respond before cancellation.

The cancellations have faced a legal challenge from voting-rights groups. Raffensperger’s office said in March that the lawsuit concerns nearly half a million inactive registrations canceled in 2025 and maintains the removals complied with state and federal requirements.

Georgia’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 3.

* * * Order by midnight Sunday

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 09:00

The post The Promise of Trump’s Trade Cutoffs: Shortages and Higher Prices appeared first on CEPR.

Futures Flat Ahead Of Massive $7 Trillion Quad-Witching As Yields Resume Rise

US stock futures are little changed on Friday, with big tech stocks rising while sentiment is supported by another modest decline in oil prices; a near-record $7 trillion quad-witching and index rebalances add to Friday's set-up. US tariff-delay hopes, a flattening US curve and softer diesel and WTI prices ease inflation concerns, while AI bulls are back in charge. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% to 7,713.25, erasing modest gains, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.3% as the market momentum after the risk-on rally yesterday holding well into today’s session with Tech continuing its leadership. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher led by GOOG/L (+2.0%); AMZN is flat after the 5% rally yesterday amid a long-term deal with Generac. Meanwhile, Brent crude traded near $104 a barrel. The dollar climbed 0.2%, while gold rose toward $4,400 an ounce. Treasuries resumed losses after a brief rebound, with the 10-year yield up three basis points to 4.97%. Overnight, the BOJ hiked by 25bps as expected, but the vote split skewed dovish as two Takaichi-appointed members dissented, which sent the yen sharply lower (USDJPY breaking above 157 for first time since early Sept) and Japanese stocks rallying (Tech > Banks). The USD is higher post BOJ decision. Oil is unchanged this morning; both precious and base metals are higher. Today’s macro data focus is on Industrial Production and Leading Index which are not expected to be market moving.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Alphabet is leading Magnificent 7 peers higher as technology and AI-related stocks boost the US stock futures. Meanwhile, Apple underperforms the cohort (Alphabet +2.4%, Nvidia +0.4%, Apple +0.1%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.5%, Microsoft -0.1%, Meta +0.7%).

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying in premarket trading, set to extend gains, after US SEC greenlit digital versions of securities to start trading in the US.
• European telecom stocks sold off on Friday, following US-listed peers lower, amid concerns over competition from satellite operators and disruptive impact from agentic AI tools.
• Fluence Energy Inc. received another downgrade on Friday, with Jefferies cutting the energy storage company to hold from buy, citing a recent cut to the company’s outlook.
• Intuit shares are little changed in premarket trading, after the tax-preparation software company hosted an investor day where it gave financial targets and discussed its strategy to deliver higher growth. Analysts say the stock remains a show-me story as the company navigates the AI era.
• Macom Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. shares are up 2.1% in premarket trading, after BMO Capital Markets upgraded the semiconductor device company to outperform from market perform, seeing an attractive valuation in the wake of recent weakness.
• Netflix shares drop 2.9% in premarket trading as Wells Fargo Securities downgrades to underweight from equal-weight, citing “worrying” engagement trends.
• Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang expects to sell twice as many chips in the coming year, fueled by the spread of artificial intelligence across different industries.
• Stubhub shares gain 3.5% in premarket trading as Citi upgrades to buy from neutral, citing “robust” third-quarter trends. .
• Tyson Foods shares are up 1.4% ahead of the bell as JPMorgan upgrades the meat producer to overweight from neutral.
• Xenon shares tumble 27% in premarket trading Friday after the bio-pharmaceutical firm voluntarily paused enrollment in clinical studies of major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar depression (BPD).

In other corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. founder Warren Buffett is stepping down as the company’s chairman to be replaced by his son Howard. SoftBank Group Corp. has increased its margin loan backed by shares of its chip unit Arm Holdings Plc by $5 billion to $25 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Russia seized control of the local assets of Swiss food giant Nestle SA and French supermarket chain Auchan, placing their stakes in Russian businesses under temporary administration. More than a quarter of Anthropic PBC’s research and development work for artificial intelligence is driven by its Claude chatbot, according to the company. Morgan Stanley and CIBC have won the mandate to advise the Canadian government on selling the operating rights to the country’s four largest airports. Malaysia Airlines’s parent is said to be closing in on an order for Boeing 787 Dreamliners as the carrier seeks to renew its long-haul fleet.

Today's quieter tone signals a notable shift for markets that started the week with Brent crude at a four-month high, 10-year Treasury yields at levels seen 19 years ago and chipmakers under pressure on concerns that AI poses an existential risk to humanity. Since then, a US interest-rate hike has helped shore up the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting credibility, worries over crude supplies from the Middle East have eased and a persistent supply-demand imbalance in chips continues to underpin robust profit outlooks for semiconductor companies.

Friday’s main event saw the Bank of Japan raise its benchmark rate as widely expected, though in a split decision. The yen weakened 1.2% against the dollar after two board members voted against the hike, suggesting the bank may not embark on a series of increases as quickly as initially anticipated.  

Developments in the Middle East and the outlook for global rates will be the main steer for traders in the coming weeks, said Roberto Scholtes at Singular Bank. The risk of further energy-supply disruptions from the Iran war came back into view Friday as Saudi Aramco told some refining customers in Europe they won’t be allocated crude next month.

“Energy prices and monetary policy expectations will remain the main market drivers until the third-quarter earnings season begins,” Scholtes said. “The US midterm elections will gradually move into the spotlight, especially if leading candidates put forward bold policy proposals.”

An easing of geopolitical tensions should help both bonds and equities, according to Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “The first couple of weeks of October could be a sweet spot to get some form of a deal between US and Iran, even if it’s a fudge,” Kumar wrote. “We are at a local peak in geopolitical tensions and see improvement in the coming weeks.”

Friday's quad-witching option expiration may remove positioning that has dampened realized moves, Citadel Securities says, with about $7 trillion of options notional value set to expire, one of the largest ever. Meanwhile Bloomberg notes that the equity dispersion trade’s golden age may be ending, with single stock volatility’s premium relative to the VIX plunging since July.

With the Fed’s communications blackout ending after Wednesday’s rate decision, focus on the policy outlook will shift back to the views of voting officials. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to deliver a speech in London on Friday.

US equity funds had the biggest weekly inflows in three months at $63.8 billion, according to BofA, citing EPFR data through Sept. 16. Index rebalances after the close tonight include Bloom Energy, Illumina and Everpure into the S&P 500 and SpaceX will get a weighting boost from a Nasdaq 100 rebalance.

In poltiics, the US is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs on China and other trading partners until after next week’s summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. AI is widely expected to be a central topic at the event, with access to advanced US chips and safety standards among key points of contention. 

And on the subject of AI, SoftBank increased its margin loan backed by shares of its chip unit Arm Holdings by $5 billion to $25 billion, as the conglomerate finds ways to fund its expanding investments in AI. Software’s recovery, having been left for dead earlier by in the year by perceived imminent AI threats, is the focus of today’s Tech Watch.

Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.4% to 640.2 with Nestlé in the red after a decree from Russia’s President about its operations in the country. The telecom and insurance sectors weigh the most, while technology and healthcare are among the few gainers. Still, the region is set for its first weekly advance in three as oil retreats on optimism about diplomacy between the US and Iran. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Infineon shares rise as much as 3.8% after being upgraded at Oddo BHF, which recommends investors return to the stock following a recent de-rating.
• Adecco rises as much as 2.1% as Bank of America says its underperform thesis on the company has played out, with the stock having derated ~40% between August 2023 and June 2026 due to two years of negative EPS revisions.
• Softcat shares fluctuate after the IT reseller raised guidance for FY26 operating profit growth, while announcing an acquisition that was partially funded by an equity raise.
• Nestlé shares drop as much as 1.9% after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree transferring stakes in the firm’s local unit into temporary administration.
• Orange shares fall as much as 4.5% after the carrier was downgraded to underweight by analysts at Morgan Stanley, who see multiple headwinds ahead for the carrier.

Asian stocks rose, driven by gains in chipmakers as tech sentiment got a lift from declines in oil prices and a bullish outlook from Nvidia. Japanese stocks advanced after the nation’s central bank raised rates, as expected. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1% before paring some of the gains, with SK Hynix, Samsung and TSMC among the biggest boosts. A Bloomberg gauge of Asian chipmakers rose 3.5%, though most sectors beyond tech declined. South Korea’s Kospi led advances among regional benchmarks, rising 2.7%, while Taiwan, China and Hong Kong also gained. The tech-driven gains underscore the resilience of the AI trade even as the broader backdrop for Asian equities has become more challenging. The Fed Reserve and BOJ have tightened policy, while still-elevated crude and global bond yields have added pressure on financial conditions. Investors are still optimistic that strong tech earnings will help broader equities markets withstand headwinds. Chinese optical technology stocks rose after Huawei said it’s set to ship its first near-packaged optics modules in the coming quarters. Shares of Chinese robotics component suppliers extended gains after a local media report said that Tesla has begun a new round of audits at local firms to support mass production of its Optimus humanoid robot. Elsewhere, Philippines’ benchmark index was the biggest decliner in Asia and dropped the most in three weeks on expectations of higher local energy cost after rising oil prices.

In FX, the yen tumbles to 158 as Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments following a split-vote hike by the central bank failed to meet traders’ hawkish expectations. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up by 0.1% and currency moves beyond the yen are relatively muted.

In rates, treasuries hold front-end-led losses in early US session, flattening key yield-curve spreads amid similar price action in bunds and gilts. US 2s10s is testing YTD lows reached in June, and 5s30s is lowest since March 2025, extending moves spurred by Wednesday’s Fed meeting.US front-end yields are 4bp-5bp cheaper on the day, flattening 2s10s by 2bp to 24bp, within 1bp of its June low; 5s30s is nearly 4bp flatter near 46bp; the 10-year is higher by 4bp near 4.97% with UK and German counterparts higher by 4.4bp and 2.5bp respectively. IG dollar issuance slate contains a couple of offerings so far; six were priced Thursday totaling $21 billion, with issuer paying about 3bp on deals that were 4.4 times oversubscribed. Dealer expectations for next week’s volume have been in the $35 billion area. Next week’s Treasury auctions include 2-, 5- and 7-year notes commencing Sept. 22.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are flat at $96, erasing an earlier drop. Gold is rising, nearing $4,400/oz.

US economic data slate includes August industrial production (9:15 a.m.) and August Leading Index (10 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes Governor Bowman (9:30 a.m.) and Kansas City’s Schmid (11:45 a.m.).

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Pakistan’s army chief has urged Iran to try to rein in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, referencing their mutual defense agreement with Riyadh. FT
• China has privately asked Tehran to help rein in Yemen's Houthis after an appeal to Beijing by Saudi Arabia following the Iran-backed group's military blitz in the past week. RTRS
• The Trump administration has approved visas for top Iranian officials, including the president and foreign minister, to attend next week’s U.N. General Assembly high-level meeting in New York even as the two countries are locked in a stalemated war. AP
• Amazon said AI models should be released only when “ready and safe,” calling for rigorous testing, safeguards and industry cooperation with government. BBG
• Cyber researchers broke into OpenAI using its key rival Anthropic’s software, highlighting vulnerabilities in the ChatGPT maker’s security as leading AI companies face mounting scrutiny over safety. FT
• The BoJ has raised interest rates to a 31-year high, accelerating monetary policy normalization under mounting pressure from Washington but failing to arrest an ongoing slide in the yen. The BoJ’s policy board on Friday voted for a 0.25 percentage point increase by a 7-2 margin, taking its target rate to about 1.25 percent. FT
• Turkey turned to two major banks to oversee the liquidation of 131 investment funds holding more than $18 billion. The move follows a week of turmoil in Turkey’s fund industry after funds at Tera and Pusula said they were unable to meet some investor redemption requests. BBG
• Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Michele Bullock warned Friday that the central bank’s concerns regarding stubborn inflation are materializing. Inflation remains “too high” and recent developments suggest that “some upside risks to inflation appear to be materializing,” Bullock said in a testimony before parliament. WSJ
• Strategists are the most bullish on European stocks for September since 2018, a Bloomberg survey showed, as strong earnings help cushion the impact of energy prices and rising bond yields. BBG
• OpenAI CEO Altman, NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang and Qualcomm (QCOM) CEO Amon plan to attend the Trump-Xi dinner next week, with AI expected to be a key focus in the summit on September 24th: Politico 
• The US administration is set to announce that all states will see MFN pricing for certain drugs in Medicaid programmes: Semafor
• US Department of Agriculture confirmed a case of New World screwworm in a horse in Grant County, New Mexico, marking the state's second case since the parasite entered from Mexico in June.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, where markets reversed the post-FOMC moves amid a Fed credibility boost and lower oil prices. ASX 200 lagged with the index range-bound trade as gains in tech and miners were counterbalanced by weakness in defensives, telecoms, energy and financials, while there were comments from RBA Governor Bullock that lowering inflation is essential and that the key question is whether the tightening in monetary policy to date will be sufficient to bring inflation back to the target in a reasonable time. Nikkei 225 rallied following the BoJ announcement to hike rates by 25bps, as widely expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote as Takaichi-appointed board members Asada and Sato dissented. The language from the central bank reaffirmed a hiking bias but didn't signal any major urgency, noting it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the inflation target, while the latest inflation data from Japan printed softer-than-expected on all key metrics of the report. KOSPI advanced with tech stocks buoyed following the outperformance in the Nasdaq stateside, while South Korean President Lee ruled out sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad positive mood, with reports noting that the US is expected to delay announcing excess manufacturing capacity tariffs till after the Trump-Xi summit, while MOFCOM said Chinese and US trade teams remain in close contact over negotiations on mutual tariff reductions covering USD 30bln. In addition, the PBoC conducted 7-day and 14-day reverse repo operations ahead of the National Day holidays in early October.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will work to maintain an orderly FX market and will not hesitate to conduct further coordinated forex intervention. She added that they maintain close communication with financial authorities of other nations on FX and that it is important to maintain order regarding exchange rates and interest rates.
• Japan Economy Minister Kiuchi expects the BoJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably and stably achieve its price target while working closely with the government, adding that details of monetary policy are for the BoJ to decide.

European bourses have started the final trading session of the week on the backfoot, despite the constructive risk tone in Asia-Pac equities and the downside seen in energy benchmarks. Optimism in Europe has risen and according to a Bloomberg poll, the STOXX 600 will finish 2026 at 670, implying gains of 5% from Wednesday's close. HSBC analysts highlight the improving macroeconomic data as a driver for the upbeat tone in Europe, while welcoming any downside in energy prices. Sectors point to a negative bias. Telecoms is the sector laggard, followed by Insurance and Retail. On the other hand, Tech is the sector outperformer, with Health Care and Industrials rounding out the sector gainers.

Top European News

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Aug): 1-year 3.0% (prev. 2.9%), 3-year 2.9% (prev. 2.7%), 5-year 2.5% (prev. 2.4%).
• UK Retail Sales (Aug MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.5%).
• UK Retail Sales (Aug YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.2%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel (Aug MM) 0.6% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.9%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel (Aug YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%).
• German PPI (Aug MM) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.1%).
• German PPI (Aug YY) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.0%).

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD; the Aussie slightly outperforms, whilst the JPY is the clear laggard following the BoJ’s policy announcement.
• DXY is mildly firmer this morning and currently holds within a fairly narrow 100.19-38 range. The index still remains towards post-FOMC highs, benefiting from higher energy prices and as markets pull forward their calls for further hikes this year.
• The JPY is the clear underperformer this morning, after the BoJ decided to lift rates by 25bps (as expected), with the decision made by a 7-2 vote split. The two dissenters were PM Takaichi “reflationist” members; Asada noted that the economy was not strong enough, whilst Sato believed that price developments had not substantially accelerated. The announcement itself spurred immediate pressure in the JPY, given the two surprise dissenters and after the BoJ avoided any guidance surrounding a faster pace of rate hikes. Governor Ueda’s presser thereafter saw Ueda also strike a dovish tone, where he highlighted that easy monetary conditions are expected to be maintained, adding that rates have tightened, but bank lending and asset markets remain accommodative. USD/JPY is stronger by c. 1.3% on the session so far, and currently holding at the upper end of a 155.87-158.06 range. No doubt, if the theme of widening differentials between the Fed and BoJ returns, USD/JPY will likely head back towards the 158-160 range.
• EUR is mildly firmer this morning, amidst a slew of ECB speak, where a number of members are currently in Ireland for an informal meeting of EU ministers. ECB’s Kaasik and Kazaks struck a hawkish tone, with the latter suggesting that a September hike is unlikely to be the last, “unless we find ourselves in a very different scenario than the baseline”. Elsewhere, President Lagarde reiterated that they are not seeing second-round effects. A recent Bloomberg survey showed that economists believe that the Bank will wait until December before delivering a final interest-rate increase to quell inflation triggered by conflict in the Middle East.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are lower this morning. USTs (-3 ticks) are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst Bunds (-30 ticks) and Gilts (-41 ticks) underperform. Pressure today for the latter two is likely an accumulation of factors: 1) BoJ rate hike, 2) elevated energy prices, 3) paring of recent BoE-related strength, 4) hawkish central bank speak from the ECB.
• JGBs are net firmer today, following the BoJ’s decision to hike rates by 25bps to 1.25%. However, the decision was subject to dovish dissent, which saw PM Takaichi's “reflationist” appointees vote to hold rates; Asada noted that the economy was not strong enough, whilst Sato believed that price developments had not substantially accelerated. The presser thereafter saw Ueda also strike a dovish tone, where he highlighted that easy monetary conditions are expected to be maintained, adding that rates have tightened, but bank lending and asset markets remain accommodative. The JGB curve is steepening this morning (in contrast to global peers which are flattening), with underperformance in the short end given the dovish tone from the meeting/Ueda.
• USTs are flat, trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Some strength was seen in early morning trade alongside the pressure in energy prices, but this ultimately reversed. Ultimately, USTs are subdued this morning, following global peers with worldwide central banks shifting hawkish – the BoJ the latest to do so. Markets will get clarity out of the Fed later today, with Schmid and Bowman on the docket.
• It is worth highlighting that yields are bear-flattening this morning; this indicates that elevated energy prices and hawkish repricing are the main themes in traders’ minds. The US 2s10s currently holds around 24bps vs 34bps earlier in the week.
• Bunds have had a number of hawkish ECB speeches today, namely Kaasik and Kazaks. This may, in part, be weighing on the benchmark this morning. A recent Bloomberg survey showed that economists believe that the Bank will wait until December before delivering a final interest-rate increase to quell inflation triggered by conflict in the Middle East. Bunds will eye the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, particularly in the context of the AfD’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt a few weeks ago.
• Australia sells AUD 1.0bln 1.00% November 2031 bonds: b/c 4.47x, average yield 4.9936%.

Commodites

• Crude benchmarks continue to pull back from its peak seen earlier in the week, with escalatory strikes in the Gulf seemingly slowing down. There were a couple of UKMTO reports, which failed to move markets as traders now focus on next steps over any potential end to the war. Overnight, US President Trump told Axios he is at a "critical juncture" regarding the war in Iran, weighing whether to launch massive new attacks or pursue a different path to end the conflict. Further, this morning, a source close to the Iranian negotiating team said Tehran has informed Washington, via intermediaries, of its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the minimum conditions based on the “Islamabad understanding”, according to Al-Akhbar. WTI Oct'26 rotates in a USD 99.39-101.57/bbl range while Brent Nov'26 trades either side of the USD 103/bbl mark (USD 101.92-104.27/bbl range).
• Precious metals continue to climb post-Fed, with spot gold currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4,334-4,400/oz range. The narrative behind the recent gold upside seems to come from lower yields and energy prices, tempering worries of inflation.
• 3M LME Copper regains the USD 14.5k/t handle and rose to levels just shy of USD 14.6k/t, as the red metal prepares for its 4th consecutive day of gains. Supporting copper gains are signs that Chinese demand is re-entering the market. The Yangshan premium, a gauge of copper demand, rose to its highest level since November 2022 while domestic copper production fell slightly in August.
• Saudi Arabia has sold about 60mln barrels of crude from its Ras Tanura port inside the Strait of Hormuz for loading in September and October, Reuters reported citing sources.
• Venezuela nears an agreement to move USD 4bln gold reserve to New York which would allow the interim government to access funding, according to FT.

Central Banks

• BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote as board members Asada and Sato dissented and voted to hold. BoJ said it will continue to raise rates in response to economic and price developments as well as financial conditions. BoJ said inflation expectations are heightening moderately, with underlying inflation approaching 2%, and it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the inflation target. Furthermore, it said the accommodative financial environment will be sustained after the policy rate change, thereby supporting economic activity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on financial and FX markets, the economy and prices. In terms of the dissenters, who are both known reflationists appointed by PM Takaichi, BoJ's Asada considered that with the rate of increase in the core CPI below 2% recently, it could not necessarily be said that the economic situation was strong and it was desirable for the Bank to maintain the guideline for money market operations, while Sato considered current economic and price developments did not appear to have substantially accelerated compared with before, and in this context, it was not appropriate for the Bank to raise the policy interest rate at this time.
• Overall, Ueda’s press conference did not signal any urgency to accelerate the pace of tightening. He mentioned that easy monetary conditions are expected to be maintained, adding that rates have tightened, but bank lending and asset markets remain accommodative. One hawkish aspect of the presser was that Ueda suggested that the BoJ believes the phase of policy has changed. However, he later clarified that this meant that the objective is now to stabilise underlying inflation at around 2%, essentially removing the initial hawkish remark. Ueda also did not mention anything related to increasing the pace of future rate hikes, which further added to the dovish tone.
• RBA's Governor Bullock said various indicators continue to suggest labour market conditions remain close to, but a little tighter than full employment, while she added that monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments. Bullock said lowering inflation is essential, and the key question is whether the tightening in monetary policy to date will be sufficient to bring inflation back to the target in a reasonable time. Furthermore, she stated they are in a world of higher-for-longer oil prices and that businesses are now more inclined to pass on cost increases.
• ECB President Lagarde, speaking on RTE Radio, said growth is a bit more promising than we thought and that they are not seeing second round effects yet. She also reiterated a meeting-by-meeting approach.
• ECB's Vujcic said market bets on further ECB rate hikes are being largely driven by higher energy prices and will look at a wider set of economic indicators when deciding the next policy move. Vujcic said higher inflation through Autumn will dampen GDP. On the current rate hike pace, he said it is worth keeping for the time being.
• ECB's Kazaks, speaking to Bloomberg, said the ECB must do everything to avoid second round effects and that all meetings are live meetings. On the neutral rate, he said they are near the upper end of neutral and that quite likely restrictive policy will be needed. Elsewhere, Kazaks told Econostream that the September hike will unlikely to be the last "unless we find ourselves in a very different scenario than the baseline". Kazaks highlighted that an October hike would still be consistent with the September projections. On considering the size of the moves, he said that if the move in inflation is very strong or core inflation is moving up, the ECB can take bigger steps.
• ECB's Kaasik said more tightening needed if inflation risks materialise but that the exact level of neutral rate is not a big concern now.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Source close to the Iranian negotiating team said Tehran has informed Washington, via intermediaries, of its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the minimum conditions based on the “Islamabad understanding”, according to Al-Akhbar.
• US State Department said the US will continue to bar Iranian UN mission officials, visiting officials and their dependents from purchasing wholesale club memberships or luxury goods, and urged New York area retailers to avoid complicity in violations.
• US is reportedly expected to send MQ-9 Reaper drones to South America, CNN reported citing sources. The report added that the plan is part of counternarcotics and counterterror operations and that there are still discussions on whether to send some drones to the Middle East.
• UKMTO received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz. The CSO of a vessel has reported a tanker being hit by an unknown projectile causing a fire, which was extinguished.
• IRGC said Togolese-flagged tanker 'Trend' was hit and stopped after a fire, while it stated the tanker violated Hormuz rules and that the US instigated the transit.
• Houthis are reportedly expanding its minefield in Bab al-Mandab and Dhubab, Al Araby reported.
• South Korea President Lee said several countries are deploying military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, and added that they won't deploy troops to join conflict but limited actions to safeguard South Korean economic interests and citizens are possible.

Geopolitics: Ukraine/Other

• Turkish President Erdogan and US President Trump may discuss initiatives for negotiations on Ukraine in New York, RIA reported citing sources.
• US President Trump is making plans for the first-ever meeting with Venezuela's interim President Rodriguez as early as next week, although a meeting is not finalised, according to Axios.
• North Korea leader Kim's sister said there is no change to the course of strengthening nuclear war deterrence and the US-led multinational drills are the main source of worsening tensions on the peninsula.

US Event Calendar

• 9:15 am: August Industrial Production MoM, est 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 9:15 am: August Manufacturing Production MoM, est 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 9:15 am: August Capacity Utilization, est 76.4%, prior 76.3%
• 10 am: August Leading Index, est 0.1%, prior 0.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the end of the week as I hit day 8 of manflu, a variant passed on by my 11-year-old daughter who was ill with it for precisely 18 hours. In other injury news, I've slightly sprained my wrist awkwardly cutting up a mango! I'll add that to the list of ailments my body is currently processing.  

Distracting me as I try to type through the slight pain, the main story overnight is that the Bank of Japan have delivered another 25bp rate hike, taking their policy rate up to its highest since 1995, at 1.25%. This is the second of the year and the 6th since they started hiking in March 2024. The move follows on from the Fed’s hike on Wednesday, and the ECB’s hike last week, which leaves us in little doubt we’re in a globally synchronised cycle of rate hikes again, with more likely ahead from all three.

Having said that, it was a more dovish hike than expected, with Ayano Sato and Toichiro Asada calling for a hold on the grounds that Japan’s economic outlook was uncertain. Both dissenters were appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the board. So there is some suggestion that this may infer less political support for the rate hike than has perhaps been indicated by US Treasury Secretary Bessent who has been quite firm on the fact that the US and Japan are aligned.

So although the central bank reiterated that it will continue raising rates if economic and inflation conditions evolve as projected, the market has reacted to the two high profile dissenters. The Yen is -0.72% lower at 157.10, having been at around 153.40 at the start of the week and the JGB curve has steepened, with 2yrs -2.2bps and 30yrs +3.2bps.  We'll see what the BOJ press conference brings at 7:30am London time.

The BOJ decision came just hours after the release of August inflation data, which showed price pressures remaining broadly stable and close to the central bank’s target. Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 1.7% year-over-year in August, slightly below market expectations of 1.8% and down marginally from the previous reading. Meanwhile, core-core CPI, a key measure of underlying inflation closely monitored by the BOJ, remained unchanged at 1.9%. Headline CPI also increased 1.9% year-over-year, matching the pace recorded in the previous month and reinforcing the view that inflation remains relatively stable.

The Nikkei (+1.67%) has moved higher on the back of the weaker Yen but Asia is stronger anyway following on from the global rally yesterday. The KOSPI (+2.59%) is leading regional gains, with semiconductor stocks extending yesterday’s rally. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese equities are posting solid advances, with the CSI 300 (+1.05%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.04%) both sharply higher, while the Hang Seng (+0.67%) is recording more modest gains. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.02%) is little changed and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both +0.14% higher.

The yuan has strengthened to its highest level in more than four years as the PBOC continue to guide the currency higher ahead of next week’s planned meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, where trade relations are expected to be a key focus. The offshore yuan is advancing +0.14% to 6.695 per dollar, marking its strongest level since July 2022. The PBOC also set a firmer daily fixing for the eighth consecutive session, the longest such streak since 2023.

Those overnight developments come after a very strong session yesterday, with markets rallying thanks to a clear drop in oil prices and a decent batch of US data. Indeed, the S&P 500 (+1.14%) posted its best day in over a month, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-9.2bps) saw its biggest daily decline since June as it ended a run of eight consecutive increases. So even though the first half of September was very weak, living up to the month’s bearish reputation, yesterday brought a clear shift in momentum and more positivity on the near-term outlook.

The reality is that although seasonals matter, the oil price probably matters more at the moment. And yesterday the oil price decline was the biggest catalyst, with Brent crude having now fallen by more than 3.5% in the last couple of sessions, closing yesterday at $104.82/bbl, and now another -1.35% lower in Asia. In part, the move was supported by the previous day’s news that Saudi Arabia was working to restore the damaged East-West pipeline. But oil then took a further slide after a Reuters report yesterday that China had privately asked Iran to help rein in the Houthis. So that added to hopes that the supply disruption might fade, and Brent crude came down -0.95% on the day.

With inflationary pressures coming down, that helped sovereign bonds to rally on both sides of the Atlantic. That was clearest for US Treasuries, as the Fed’s hike on Wednesday added to hopes that inflation would come down over the months ahead. So the 2yr yield (-7.3bps) was down to 4.66%, the 10yr yield (-9.2bps) fell back to 4.93%, and the 30yr yield (-7.7bps) fell to 5.28%. Interestingly, that now leaves the 2s30s yield curve at its flattest level since March 2025, at 62bps. Remember as well that the Fed’s blackout period around the meeting ends today, so we’ll start to hear from officials again and learn how they’re thinking about future rate hikes in the months ahead.

Whilst Treasuries were rallying, it was also a strong day for equities, which recovered from the previous day’s declines after the Fed. That was partly thanks to lower energy prices, but we also had a strong batch of US labour market data which cemented the view that the economy remained in good shape. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to 196k in the week ending September 12 (vs. 207k expected). Moreover, the continuing claims for the previous week fell to the lowest since January 2024, at just 1.730m (vs. 1.779m expected). So that kept up the optimism around US growth, and the S&P 500 (+1.14%) bounced back after a run of 3 consecutive declines. Chip stocks led the gains, with the Philly semiconductor index (+3.14%) posting one of the biggest outperformances yesterday, but there was strength across the tech space, with the NASDAQ up +1.69%.

Earlier in Europe, the main story came from the Bank of England, who kept rates on hold at 3.75%. The decision was in line with consensus, and the vote split of 6-3 to hold rather than hike was also expected, so there wasn’t a direct market reaction to that. However, there was a big rally in long-dated gilts after the BoE announced an adjustment in its QT plan, including an end to sales of longer maturity gilts. So they said that the gilts with redemption dates from 2049-2071 would be held to maturity by the Bank, with the purpose of indirectly backing current and future banknote issuance. Moreover, they said that QT sales would be paused until April 2027 as they worked through the operational details for the rest of the plan. So that meant the 30yr yield (-12.1bps) saw its biggest daily decline since May, coming down to 5.74%, whilst the 50yr yield (-17.9bps) saw its biggest decline since February 2023, coming down to 5.20%. Meanwhile, 10yr gilt yields (-7.4bps to 5.22%) extended their two-day move to -16.6bps, the sharpest such decline since last April.

On the rates decision, the BoE statement was clear that the Bank might be edging towards a hike, saying that the risk of second-round effects on inflation “is greater the longer higher energy prices persist or are more volatile.” Moreover, they said that “the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, and more so than at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report”. Nevertheless, the fact they held, and the vote split remained at 6-3, suggested there wasn’t immediate momentum for a hike, and market pricing slightly dialled back the chance of a hike by the next meeting in November. So on Wednesday, investors were pricing in a 93% chance of a hike by the time of the November meeting, but that was down to 83% by the close yesterday. In turn, that helped yields at shorter maturities to come down as well, with the 2yr yield (-2.2bps) falling to 4.73%.

Elsewhere in Europe, the picture was also one of solid gains, as the respite on energy prices lifted assets across the continent. So that meant equities rebounded, with the STOXX 600 (+0.86%) posting its best daily performance in over two months. And for bonds, we saw 10yr yields on bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-2.3bps) and BTPs (-2.4bps) all fall back as well.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilization for August, along with UK retail sales and German PPI for August. We’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde, the Fed’s Bowman and Schmid, and we’ll get the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 08:38

My back in NY morning reads:

​• Why Are Valuations Falling in a Bull Market?: Ben Carlson runs the year’s tape — mortgages from 6% to 7%, the 10-year from 4% to 5%, inflation from 2.4% to 3.4%, oil from under $60 to over $100. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

​​• Muni Bonds Are Yielding 5%. They Rival Stocks Now.: With yields comparable to long-term Treasuries and strong credit quality across the $4 trillion tax-exempt market, a tax-advantaged 5% could stack up well versus equities in the coming years. (Barron’s) see also T-Bills and Chill? Try Munis & Chill Instead. Land an A-round and a real salary? Great! Start putting some of your newfound cash flow aside as a good savings habit in an all-equity 401(k). It is a hedge against your start-up failing to beat the odds and eventually finding an exit. (The Big Picture)

• The Next Great AI Trade Is Everything That Isn’t AI: Market Sentiment on the hard half of investing — finding the trend early is easy compared to knowing when the thesis has become consensus. (Market Sentiment)

​• The iShares Graveyard: David Snowball’s archaeological dig through BlackRock’s full list of liquidated ETFs, prompted by eight more closures. “You think I went down a rabbit hole. I prefer to consider it an archaeological dig.” (Mutual Fund Observer)

• Trump Has Made More Trades Than All of Congress Combined: Bloomberg finds the president has traded more securities than every member of Congress combined since returning to office — while backing a lawmaker stock-trading ban that doesn’t apply to him.  Most Americans support a ban on lawmaker stock trading. Trump is in favor of a prohibition that doesn’t apply to him. (Bloomberg free)

​• The World Economy Is Becoming Wary of the U.S.: Global investors balking at Treasuries, louder talk of the dollar’s dwindling power, foreign governments hauling their gold out of American vaults. America’s position of global economic stability is starting to look shakier as the Trump administration piles on debt and doubles down on sanctions. (New York Times) see also The American Age Is Over: The Atlantic on the post-WWII order — bound to end eventually, shocking in how suddenly the moment arrived. A period of global dominance has ended in plain sight. (The Atlantic)

​• We Bought a $500 Counterfeit Luxury Watch. Nobody Could Spot the Difference: Alistair Charlton inside the Reddit QC-post subculture of superfake Rolexes — so good even Rolex didn’t spot it. The replica watch industry is in its “super clone” era. Following tips from murky internet forums, we bought three budget fakes that were good enough to pass as real—but ultimately disposable. (Wired)

• ‘Flock City PD:’ The Fake Flock-Owned ‘Police Department’ That Searched Real Cameras for Real People: Jason Koebler Jason Koebler · Sep 17, 2026 at 2:07 PM Flock ran searches for “coexist bumper sticker,” “white truck with a trump sticker,” and “Star of David,” apparently to demonstrate what cops shouldn’t search for. (404)

​• Can We Be Certain That Time Really Exists?: Ethan Siegel on what counts as real — the measurable, observable, and quantifiable — and the questions that hand back pathological nonsense, like dividing by zero. We experience time as real. But what if it’s only an illusion: an illusion that’s inherently relative? Does time fundamentally even exist? (Starts With A Bang)

• “Where Am I Going? And What’s Next?”: Nicole Kidman Is Keeping Her Heart Open: The long-awaited sequel to a fan-favourite movie; a newly single life to ponder; the Euro Summer to end them all: has Nicole Kidman ever been more spellbinding? Giles Hattersley meets the legend in London to talk power moves, mega fashion and the art of a fresh start. Photographs by Venetia Scott. Styling by Poppy Kain. (British Vogue)

Video of the day: The Greatest Scam of Our Childhood 8 CDs for a Penny!

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Glen Kacher, founder and CIO of Light Street Capital. He launched the firm in Palo Alto after stints working with Julian Roberts at Tiger and Roger McNamee at Integral. His Mercury funds returned 45.7% in 2023, 59.4% in 2024, and 37.3% in 2025 — the best three-year stretch of any of the “Tiger Cubs.” He describes the firm as “the Silicon Valley Home Team, 100% focused on tech opportunities.”

 

Home price growth has already begun to cool again

Source: Calculated Risk

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Great Diesel Crisis - How Policy Choices Made The West Vulnerable

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

How taxes, regulation, refinery closures, sanctions and declining domestic production turned a geopolitical shock into a diesel-price crisis

Do not blame diesel prices on the Iran war or the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical risk premium attached to oil prices is relevant, but the market was already weakened by policy choices.

Europe has taxed motor fuels heavily, imposed escalating regulatory and carbon costs across the supply chain, closed refining capacity, sanctioned major sources of refined-product supply, and discouraged investment in domestic oil and gas production. Today's refined product system is smaller, less flexible and more import-dependent, and, as such, every geopolitical disruption produces a larger price shock.

Diesel prices rise faster than crude because diesel suffers its own supply constraints, and these are politically imposed, not due to a war.

In the United States, retail diesel reached an all-time high of $5.85 per gallon on 4 September 2026. At the same time, the U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread, the benchmark measure of diesel relative to crude, surged to multi-year highs. Therefore, the problem was more the availability of middle distillates rather than crude alone. U.S. refineries were operating at about 98% utilisation, leaving little spare capacity to offset another outage.

Globally, the impact is significant. Current supply losses include refinery disruption in the Middle East linked to the Iran war and reduced Russian diesel availability following Ukrainian attacks on refining infrastructure and export restrictions. All these elements add to the geopolitical risk premium, but they are magnified by the absence of spare refining capacity and the limits to regional supply.

Middle Eastern refinery disruptions have risen to almost 3.0 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's Jizan refinery, with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, was one of the facilities where exports slumped. Additionally, Russian exports have plummeted. Russia was one of the world's largest diesel exporters, but its seaborne diesel exports in June 2026 fell to 426,000 barrels per day from 827,000 barrels per day a year earlier. Refinery damage, domestic-supply priorities and export restrictions all affected the stability of an already fragile market.

However, these disruptions explain the timing of the latest surge, but they do not explain why importing economies entered the shock with so little capacity to absorb it. That is where interventionist policies have created the biggest damage.

European motorists do not pay diesel prices driven by crude, refining and logistics costs. The biggest driver is a tax-and-regulation-heavy final price. Direct taxes alone represented an average of 52.1% of the final price of Euro-super 95 petrol in the European Union, with several countries above 55%. Consumers pay more in fuel taxation than for the crude oil, refining and logistical components combined.

Diesel taxation varies by country, but the same structural tax burden remains. When we add excise duties and VAT, governments have created a large, rigid fiscal floor to fuel prices. When crude rises, the tax-inclusive base increases the final bill. However, when crude falls, large fixed tax components mean that the price paid by households and businesses does not fall proportionately.

The real policy burden is wider than the excise duty displayed at the service station. Costs are accumulated throughout the chain. From royalties and taxes on production; environmental compliance; energy costs and carbon charges at refineries; corporate and local taxes; regulated fees for storage and infrastructure; labour levies; financing costs created by regulatory uncertainty; and compliance costs for distribution and retail, the energy chain is a massive cash machine for governments. Many of these costs are not always shown as "fuel tax," but they are passed through to the final price. Furthermore, the effect is cumulative.

Europe has not merely taxed fuels at the point of sale, it has piled fiscal and quasi-fiscal costs from exploration and importation through refining, storage, transport and retail distribution. That makes the retail price structurally less responsive to lower crude prices and more vulnerable to supply shocks.

The second structural problem is the loss of refining capacity.

The United States did not lose refining flexibility because of one executive order or one EPA rule. It was a cumulative policy tsunami. Obama's air-quality regulations and renewable-fuel mandates added compliance and capital costs, while Biden retained and expanded renewable-fuel obligations, restricted small-refinery relief and reinforced a policy environment in which long-lived petroleum investments faced greater regulatory risk and higher costs. The clearest consequence has appeared in California, where stringent state regulation, expensive compliance and mandated energy-transition policies have coincided with the closure of major refineries. The result is not lower dependence on fuels in the short term, but less domestic capacity to produce them, and greater vulnerability when global diesel supply is disrupted. Fortunately, the United States is not suffering an enormous diesel shortage problem as Europe's, because total U.S. crude-oil refining capacity did not fall between 2008 and 2026, standing at 18.16 million barrels per day.

In Europe, on comparable tax-inclusive retail prices, the EU average is about $8.90 per U.S. gallon, versus $5.97 per gallon in the United States, or 49% higher. Several European markets were close to $10.70-$10.90 per gallon as of September 11th, 2026.

Between 2020 and 2024, European refining capacity fell from about 15.3 million barrels per day to 14.7 million barrels per day, a reduction of nearly 600,000 barrels per day. Europe has lost more than 20% of its refining capacity since 2009. Refineries have been shut, converted to import terminals or biorefineries, reducing conventional crude-processing capacity just when global diesel supply has become more problematic.

A refinery may appear unnecessary during periods of large imports and open trade routes. However, it becomes strategic when imported diesel is disrupted. Closing a refinery does not eliminate domestic demand for diesel. It converts domestic production capacity into an additional need for imported product and foreign refining capacity.

The EU's decision to restrict Russian petroleum products did not eliminate Europe's demand for transport, agricultural and industrial fuel. Now diesel must be delivered from more distant suppliers, with longer routes, high freight costs and more exposure to congestion in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions may have created an indirect boomerang effect, making Europe more dependent. In January 2026, the EU also banned imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude in third countries, closing the so-called refining loophole. That restricted available supply even more.

Sanctions are justified as a geopolitical tool. But they became very expensive, especially when the EU's policy framework disincentivizes refining investment at home. Restricting a key supplier while shrinking local refining capacity is a dangerous combination, and governments cannot expect consumers and businesses to be shielded from a global refined-products shock. Thus, the EU has created a suicidal combination instead of a security of supply strategy.

Another important aspect is the limits to North Sea production. The North Sea is a mature basin, and its production decline is a reality. UK North Sea oil and gas production fell by 72% between 1999 and 2025. However, natural decline does not make policy irrelevant. High windfall taxation, uncertainty over fiscal terms, restrictions on new licensing and the broader political message that hydrocarbon investment is not desirable reduce incentives to maintain infrastructure, pursue incremental projects, explore and develop viable resources. Such policies may not change next month's global diesel price by themselves, but they have an important impact on supply, investment and infrastructure available.

UK government policy confirmed a ban on new licences for new North Sea oil and gas fields, while allowing some exceptions linked to existing fields and infrastructure. The strategic impact is still clear. A country facing declining production and shrinking refining capacity becomes more dependent on imported oil and refined products at the time when global trade routes are closing.

Domestic crude is not the same as domestic diesel. However, domestic output is essential, as it reduces import needs, supports regional infrastructure and refining optionality, improves the balance of supply during disruption and limits exposure to external suppliers. Thus, abandoning this capacity without a truly scalable substitute is a policy decision with massive security-of-supply consequences.

Europe's policy framework adds more restrictions. Refining is capital-intensive, energy-intensive and emissions-intensive. Carbon taxes, environmental mandates, compliance obligations, high electricity and gas costs, and regulatory risk make investment unviable and closures more likely.

Can it get worse? The next step of the EU framework could add another direct challenge. The ETS2 emissions-trading system is scheduled to apply to fuels used in buildings and road transport from 2027, subject to its implementation rules and safeguards. It is designed to place a carbon price on suppliers of those fuels. This makes a market already burdened by high excise duties, VAT and supply constraints will face another structural cost layer.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism does not directly tax diesel at the forecourt, but it will raise costs for carbon-intensive inputs such as steel, cement, aluminium, fertilisers, hydrogen and imported electricity. Those costs are essential for refinery maintenance, tanks, pipelines, and transport infrastructure. All these political decisions raise the cost of keeping Europe's energy system functioning.

Diesel is not a discretionary consumer good. It is the engine of the real economy. Without affordable diesel, freight transport, farming equipment, construction machinery, industrial logistics, emergency services, parts of mining and maritime activity, and parts of distribution are going to add more inflationary pressures.

The diesel shock does not end at the service station. Higher diesel costs will raise the cost of moving food from farms to warehouses and supermarkets; carrying inputs to factories; delivering medicines and manufactured goods; and operating machinery at construction sites. Businesses already suffering weak margins will pass those costs into final prices. Policy-created diesel inflation creates an economically disastrous second-round effect. This will hit transport, food, goods and services even after the war ends.

A logical energy policy should be focused on affordability, availability, and security of supply. Dismantling the physical capacity that keeps the economy supplied during an energy transition just demolishes the economy and achieves the opposite of what politicians want. The West becomes more dependent and poorer.

Europe cannot tax, regulate and limit the energy system across every stage of the value chain, close the industrial assets needed to process fuels, limit investment in production and then act surprised when diesel becomes scarce and expensive. Developed economies should preserve and modernize strategic refining capacity rather than treating it as a disposable legacy asset, eliminate the cumulative tax, carbon and regulatory burdens that destroy energy competitiveness, and support domestic energy production.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 06:30

GM Delivers Patriot Missile Parts To Lockheed As Rearmament Supercycle Nears

A congressional report recently found that the US has "probably used" one-half to two-thirds of its missile-defense interceptors during its Iran conflict so far, intensifying new concerns about readiness for another major conflict.

The US industrial response is already taking shape to ramp up missile and bomb production to replenish depleted stockpiles as the West enters the early innings of a massive rearmament supercycle.

A Wall Street Journal report said Thursday that General Motors has begun supplying components for Lockheed Martin's Patriot interceptors. This suggests that unused civilian production lines can be retooled for wartime, as they were during World War II, and shows why preserving the auto industrial base is critical in times like these.

Lockheed told the outlet that GM delivered its first batch of missile-housing components for PAC-3 MSE interceptors in August. The automaker produced the parts in three weeks, compared with the months major defense firms would have taken.

At the start of this year, the Department of War directed Lockheed to triple annual Patriot production to over 2,000 missiles by the end of 2030. Meeting that target requires additional output, including, as in this case, tapping automakers like GM.

For GM, retooling production lines for weapons offers another revenue stream during a difficult period for the global auto industry. The CEO told Wall Street analysts earlier this summer that she expected the company's defense unit to generate $700 million in revenue this year with double-digit margins.

Meanwhile, the rearmament supercyclerearmament supercycle is colliding with a critical materials squeeze supercharged by Chinese export supply restrictions and resource nationalism. Missiles, data centers, and broader reindustrialization depend on many of the same constrained metals. Securing conflict-free and reliable supplies will be paramount for the West.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 05:45

Putin Explains The Rise Of The AfD As The Consequence Of The EU's Systemic Errors

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Putin was asked about the AfD's recent landslide victory in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt on the sidelines of this year's BRICS Summit in Delhi. While politely declining to address the topic directly, he nevertheless said that "all that is now happening across Europe as a whole is the consequence of systemic errors committed by the so-called West, or, to be more precise, by the globalist circles of the West, in the political, security and economic spheres." The rest of his answer elaborated on this.

He described the political errors as a combination of anti-Russian fearmongering and the current German authorities dishonestly invoking the legacy of Helmut Kohl to justify their policies. Putin reminded everyone that Kohl was one of his close friends with whom he often spoke about bilateral ties. According to him, Kohl envisaged the exact opposite of what today's Germany is doing, namely allying with Russia due to their complementarities in order to preserve Europe's civilization and sovereignty.

As for the security errors, these concern the continued eastward expansion of NATO, prior backing for terrorism and separatism in the Caucasus, and current support for Neo-Nazis in Ukraine. Putin also warned that the European elites' plan to deploy troops to Ukraine "would mean war with Russia. And I presume that European citizens understand what is unfolding." The subtext is that this aggressive, reckless, and possibly apocalyptic policy isn't supported by average European voters.

Finally, the economic errors concern the EU's sanctions on Russian energy, which led to the bloc replacing inexpensive long-term gas contracts with Russia with expensive market-priced imports from elsewhere. Prices are now nearly ten times higher than before and "may well rise even further." Putin also criticized the EU's gas storage policies for being "unconcerned with the technical condition of these storage facilities and the physical volumes involved." All of this adversely affects the EU's economy.

All in all, Putin is arguing that the AfD's rise is an electoral revolt against these policies, all of which center on Russia. This doesn't mean that the party or its supporters are "pro-Russian", let alone "Russian puppets", just that they understand the importance of pragmatic ties with Russia for their country's political interests, security, and economic development. Obsessive anti-Russian fearmongering, risking World War III over Ukraine, and dumping inexpensive Russian energy haven't helped Germany at all.

To the contrary, they respectively serve as a false excuse for why the authorities haven't prioritized adequately addressing the problems posed by mass migration, could once again lead to Germany's total destruction, and are raising costs across the board to the detriment of everyone but the economic elite. Simply put, these policies are incredibly unpopular, and the AfD is the largest political force in Germany that's advocating to change them in line with their sincere understanding of German national interests.

A growing number of Germans agree with them as proven by the party's rising popularity, which is the direct result of their authorities' systemic errors over the 4.5 years since the Ukrainian Conflict entered its large-scale phase, but it can also be said that such errors were already being made even before then. Had former Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successors remained true to Kohl's vision, then the AfD might never have become Germany's most popular party, so its astronomical rise is entirely their fault.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 05:00

Village Votes To Separate From UK To Fight Government Planned Migrant Invasion

Is the tide finally turning against the mass immigration agenda in Europe?  Events surrounding the tiny village of Piddington have spread like wildfire concerning UK government plans to relocate and house over 1200 third world migrants.  The golden horde will be dropped in the middle of the county of Oxfordshire at an old military base less than a mile from Piddington.  The total native population of Piddington is only 350 people.

The immigration action would completely overwhelm the community with foreigners, and, as in most cases where large numbers of migrants are transplanted, the risk of crime will skyrocket. In particular, women fear the constant threat of sexual assault if migrant men greatly outnumber the locals.   

Far-left politicians (and fake conservative politicians) in the UK have been pursuing an rapid program of cultural replacement over the past decade.  Leftists have consistently complained about the overt "whiteness" of rural communities and have sought to remedy this "problem" by erecting migrant hotels and other facilities right in the middle of quiet villages across the country. 

Once these migrant camps are finished, there's no getting rid of them.  In most cases migrants roam freely away from their primary housing and often terrorize the surrounding communities.  One need only look at what's happening in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta to see what happens when smaller towns are overwhelmed by third world groups.       

The people of Piddington say no more.  Out of the 312 resident voters, 285 (91%) have voted in favor of separating from the UK and becoming a principality.  Their goal is to block the establishment of any migrant facilities.  The vote, while mostly symbolic, signals a dramatic change in the often passive nature of common citizens. 

Not all the residents in Piddington are happy about the vote and the decision to fight back against the migrant invasion.  Liberals within these communities complain about "rising racism" while ignoring the numerous examples of crime that commonly follow third worlders as they flood into western countries.  UK officials and the media often work to undermine efforts to prevent migrant housing. 

In the past, left-wing NGOs have bused in mobs of activists from outside these villages to intimidate them into submission.  Public opinion, however, seems to be shifting substantially against the multicultural agenda.  England is for the English.  Ireland is for the Irish.  Scotland is for the Scottish.  No foreigner is entitled to access these lands and none of the native people are responsible for taking in the dregs of the third world.  

It is clear, though, that UK officials plan to ignore the wishes of these communities and charge forward with their plans.  The question is, how far are the people of the UK willing to go to stop this from happening?  

Villager Herbert Owen, 76, said after voting this week that the independence referendum “isn’t just about Piddington,” adding: “It means everything our grandparents, our parents fought for. Today is the Battle of Britain.”

Earlier this month, masked demonstrators blocked the port of Dover, in southeast England, and tried to stop a boatload of migrants being taken ashore in Portsmouth on the country’s south coast.

In the UK, as opposed to the US, the vast majority of immigration is "legal" and coordinated by the government.  It is an invasion, but an invasion being aided from within.  The assumption by leftists is that once the migrants are rooted in the UK there is nothing anyone can do.  Efforts of groups like the Restore Party aim to change this by promoting a remigration platform; the position is currently exploding in popularity. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 04:15

Iconic British Children's Character Used To Push Net Zero Propaganda

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Bob the Builder, the stop-motion tradesman who once built houses, has been hauled out of retirement to install solar panels, home batteries and "low carbon heating" for German-owned energy giant E.ON. The catchphrase is the same. The product is Net Zero.

The much loved kids' character is back on screen for the first time in 15 years in a 90-second stop-motion advert for E.ON Next. He no longer spends the day on a construction yard. He enrols at a "Net Zero Training Academy," swaps his yellow hard hat for an E.ON-branded one, and learns to fit the kit the government says Britain needs for a decarbonised electricity system by 2030.

In the film he explains the gap in his CV. "I downed tools for a while. I got into yoga. Took up bird-watching. Then I packed my bags and went to Australia, where I saw some amazing sights." Holding a newspaper headlined "UK needs more green skills for clean energy future," he adds: "When I arrived back home, I saw this in the news and thought: 'Can we fix it?'"

Then comes the sales pitch. "Now I'm helping with the switch to clean power by using my great new skills so people can take control of their energy and save money too." A fellow trainee asks the inevitable question. "So, Bob, can we fix it?" He replies: "Yes we can."

Toby Young flagged the campaign as Net Zero propaganda dressed up as nostalgia.

Bob the Builder has been accused of spreading "Net Zero propaganda" after ditching his construction yard for installing solar panels and "low carbon heating" in a woke new advert. https://t.co/dsrO04g4DJ

— Toby Young (@toadmeister) September 16, 2026

Reform UK chairman Lee Anderson told The Telegraph the character had been conscripted. "Bob the Builder has been turned into a woke commissar of climate, flogging the same net zero propaganda that's sent energy bills through the roof in the homes he used to build. This country doesn't need another army of Net Zero specialists. It needs builders, plumbers and sparkies who can actually keep the lights on. Send Bob back to his proper trade."

Deputy leader Richard Tice piled on: "Go woke, go broke: Bob the Builder has been missing for years. Did his firm go bust, or has he abandoned Britain by going to China and buying their solar panels?"

Shadow transport minister Greg Smith asked: "Whatever happened to innocent children's TV, telling fun stories rather than cramming in eco-zealotry and political messaging? Hey, Bob, leave our kids alone."

E.ON insists the campaign is about skills. Helen Bradbury, the firm's chief people officer, said: "Bob the Builder has always inspired people to solve problems and build things that matter. Today, those same qualities are needed to help deliver the UK's transition to clean power."

A company spokesman added that "simply combining a home battery and time-of-use tariff can save the average household £255 a year."

Britain already has some of the highest domestic electricity prices in Europe. Net Zero taxes, subsidies and system costs have been estimated at around £22 billion a year. The 2030 clean-power target is the political backdrop. The advert is the soft sell.

This is the same method, applied to a different franchise. Netflix is developing a live-action reboot of Captain Planet, the 1990s cartoon created by Ted Turner that preached environmental panic, multicultural planeteers and population control to children. Leonardo DiCaprio is among the executive producers.

The original treated humanity as the problem requiring global management. The Club of Rome put the strategy in writing in The First Global Revolution: "In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like, would fit the bill... The real enemy then is humanity itself."

Adults are not spared from the propaganda. BBC naturalist Chris Packham has lobbied for a cameo on soap EastEnders so a flood can hit the fictional Albert Square and he can march through with a placard. He told Radio Times the role "would give me the capacity to communicate to an audience which I don't talk to in my sphere of work."

He wants the message "integrated into broader output, so properly into news obviously, properly into weather... but also into dramas." He said it was "really scary" that some people still "deny" the "gravity of that crisis."

The emotional payload of this alarmism has been measured. The Times reported the largest study then available of 16- to 25-year-olds: four in ten were so anxious about climate change they hesitated about having children, and 45 percent said it was affecting daily life.

Four in ten young people are so anxious about climate change that they are hesitant about having children

The largest scientific study to date of climate anxiety in 16 to 25-year-olds found that it was affecting the daily lives of 45% of them https://t.co/Q2Xyee2UHM

— The Times and Sunday Times (@thetimes) September 14, 2021

Naomi Oreskes circulated the underlying Lancet Planetary Health survey under the heading that children and young people are "sad, worried, anxious and angry."

Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey.
Plain language summary: children and young people are sad, worried, anxious and angry. https://t.co/AmSP1H8YRs @ProtectWinters

— NaomiOreskes (@NaomiOreskes) December 10, 2021

RTÉ put teenagers in front of a camera to discuss "climate anxiety" for a programme titled The End of the World With Beanz.

.@martinbeanz meets a group of teenagers to discuss climate anxiety.#TheEndOfTheWorldWithBeanz | Tonight at 7pm | @rteplayer pic.twitter.com/l2Rgk3ZunE

— RTÉ One (@RTEOne) March 26, 2024

Why are major media outlets encouraging parents to make their children anxious about climate change?@tilakdoshi examines the rise of climate activism in journalism and its impact on young people. ?https://t.co/fnG8tsJGLe

— CLINTEL FOUNDATION (@ClintelOrg) June 15, 2026

The Financial Times has urged parents to cultivate anxiety in their children in the name of "moral clarity," while skipping scientists who reject the catastrophe script.

??? ?? ??? ????????? ????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ???????? ??????? ????? ??????? ???????
The Financial Times is telling parents to make their kids anxious about climate change for... pic.twitter.com/WRqCgt3Dxu

— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) June 14, 2026

Richard Dawkins has long said that teaching kids they'll burn in hell is a form of psychological child abuse, that the mental terror can do more lasting damage than some physical abuse.
He calls it indoctrination.

Yet a lot of the same people who nod along to that have zero... pic.twitter.com/mkI0hKCscs

— Rothmus ? (@Rothmus) June 21, 2026

Is it any wonder young people are acting like this?

This endless parade of madness and meltdown behaviour is what unfolds when you indoctrinate kids from kindergarten age and convince them that the world is about to end at any second.??? pic.twitter.com/6rOdbGNpvb

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) December 9, 2023

The policy Bob the Builder is now hired to normalise still rests on a tight causal story: CO2 up, temperature up, therefore Net Zero. Research recently published in Nature found atmospheric CO2 and methane broadly stable over three million years of Antarctic ice-core data, while temperatures swung through long cooling and interglacial spikes without a matching greenhouse-gas plot.

One reading of the wider geological record is that no obvious continuous link between CO2 and temperature runs back across hundreds of millions of years.

Establishment voices rushed to save the narrative. Study lead Julia Marks-Peterson said her team was "a bit surprised" and that if the findings hold, "even small changes in greenhouse gas levels could trigger major shifts."

Carrie Lear of Cardiff University said the work does not "rewrite the role of CO2" and that "today's rapid CO2 rise is so alarming." Tim Naish called it "way too early to throw the baby out with the bathwater." The activism did not pause for the ice.

A generation already primed to treat climate as original sin now watches the builder of their childhood recast as a recruitment officer for the 2030 target.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 03:30

UK Proposes New Laws Giving Unmarried Women Access To Men's Assets

Men born in the 21st Century have an incredibly difficult uphill battle in front of them in face of a liberal establishment that has declared outright war.  One of the key components of this war is the use of feminism as a tool to steal hard earned assets away from men so they can be redistributed to women (and to the government).  This has been an ongoing scheme for decades under divorce law, which has led to a steep and dangerous decline in marriages and nuclear families.

In the past five years, men's movements have quietly but effectively begun opting out of the current paradigm.  What some groups call the "red pill" or the "manosphere" is really just an effort to rebalance the scales to counter a system designed to neuter them.  The rise of feminist narcissism among modern women has created a cancer within western society, and every aspect of social and political reform has been adjusted to cater to these radical women.

Yet another example of this trend is brewing in the UK, where lawmakers are proposing the most dramatic reforms to family law in decades.  Liberal Democrats want the enforcement of "cohabitation laws" which would essentially treat any couple living together for more than three years as if they are married.  

At present, unmarried people who live together don't have many specific rights around finances, property or their children if their relationship breaks down. This could soon change.  In England and Wales, there are around 3.5 million couples who are not married or in a civil partnership but live together long-term, known as cohabiting. 

These couples could soon fall under similar laws as those who are married as part of a government consultation that has divided opinions.  Under the new plans, unmarried couples could gain rights to bring financial claims if they separate.

The problem is, the UK has a 42% divorce rate and 65% of those separations are initiated by women.  Furthermore, in 89% of all divorces, men are required to pay alimony, child support and give up a large portion of their pre-existing assets.  There is little doubt that the same rules will apply to unmarried couples who break up.  

Critics argue that the laws are yet another weapon to squeeze men, stealing their livelihood and labor.  And, another tool for giving women more political power and dominance in relationships.  If women have all the financial leverage, then men can never truly fulfill their role as head of the household.  Instead, they become pay-pigs and slave labor, ever fearful that their homes, their children and their savings will be taken away from them.

Long term live-in relationships have acted as a viable alternative for many men seeking to avoid marriage contracts and the risk of divorce.  However, if cohabitation laws are put in place, men will have to avoid allowing women to live with them at all.  It is as if leftists are attempting to close one of the few remaining loopholes benefiting men.  

Women used to rely on their husbands to protect and provide, but feminism has replaced husbands with governments and corporations.  Through DEI hiring practices, divorce law, unfair college admissions and scholarships, etc., these entities take from men to artificially elevate women, making marriage increasingly obsolete. 

Men have responded with brutal efficiency.  In the span of only a few years, women are discovering the well of available suitors has gone dry.  Ladies looking for "high value" partners willing to get married are hitting a brick wall. Surveys now project that 45% of all women ages 25 - 44 in the US will be single and childless by 2030.  The female loneliness epidemic has already started.    

The reason?  Political divides are one cause, but the behavior of feminists in general has led to their downfall.  That is to say, for men the juice is no longer worth the squeeze. Over 50 years ago, getting married had benefits; women used to be homemakers and nurturers of family.  Today, many women believe that they don't need to bring anything to the table; simply allowing men to toil in their presence is treated as a privilege.  

This attitude has ripped a hole in modern relationships and men are walking away en masse. 

With 50% of marriages ending in divorce, marriage has become a get rich quick scheme rather than a lifelong partnership built on mutual respect.  Cohabitation would expand this poisonous habit to the extreme.  Men will be targeted relentlessly.  More and more of them are pushing for prenup agreements, and it is unlikely that many will accept the idea of paying out of pocket every time a woman wants to cut ties.   

The laws would also, ostensibly, apply to same sex couples and in some cases women may have to pay, but these cases will be rare.  As usual, the goal is to stifle and control men through their bank accounts.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 02:45

Germany Weighs Market Incentives To Boost Record Low Gas Storage Level

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Germany is considering expanding a key market incentive to encourage traders to raise gas storage levels ahead of the winter, a government source told Reuters on Wednesday as German gas sites are barely half full at present.

Europe's biggest economy has the world's fourth-largest natural gas storage capacity, but this capacity has been only 56% full as of the middle of September, according to data by Gas Infrastructure Europe.

That's a historically low level, the lowest in at least a decade and a half, as soaring natural gas prices amid the Middle East crisis have deepened the backwardation structure and discouraged holding supply for later deliveries. Backwardation is the market structure in which prompt contracts trade higher than those further out in time, signaling concerns about immediate supply.

As a result of the low storage levels, Germany is risking gas shortages this winter if it turns out to be colder than previous years, the country's gas storage association, INES, warned last week.

Therefore, the German government is looking to use the existing market tool, the autumn tender for Long Term Options, or LTOs, on a larger scale.

The tender is set to be increased by a yet-to-be-determined volume of gas, according to Reuters' source.

Germany would rather avoid direct state purchases of gas as it did in 2022, but has agreed with state-held energy firms Uniper and SEFE they would inject more gas into their storage facilities.

Last week, industry association INES warned that refilling has "fallen significantly short of the required pace so far this year" and that "the window for sufficient refill is closing."

"While it is still technically possible to reach a storage level of around 77%, simply having storage capacities booked is not enough," INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann said.

"Filling storage facilities must be economically viable if market participants are to actually carry it out."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/18/2026 - 02:00

Netanyahu Calls To Strip Citizenship Of Those Who 'Defame' Israeli Army

Via Middle East Eye

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for the stripping of citizenship from those who "defame" the Israeli army.

His comments reflect anger from the Israeli government over the documentary NAZA, which featured soldiers testifying to the commission of war crimes in Gaza. Netanyahu said he would introduce two bills to Israel's parliament in a video posted on social media.

"NAZA" Directors Rachel Szor, left, and Yuval Abraham, via Associated Press

"The first would revoke the citizenship of anyone who defames [Israeli army] soldiers, and the second would hit them in the pocket by increasing twentyfold the amount in damages for which they can be sued for defamation," Netanyahu said.

"We will hit them both in the pocket and in citizenship, because they have no place among us."

Israeli ministers have already called for NAZA directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor to lose their citizenship over the film.

On Monday, Culture Minister Miki Zohar called the film “despicable” and said its winning of the Special Jury Prize at the 83rd Venice International Film Festival on Saturday was “shocking”.

“The creators’ burning self-hatred, and their willingness to harm their homeland in order to receive applause from antisemites around the world, is beyond comprehension and constitutes a betrayal of the state,” Zohar said on X.

“I will act immediately to revoke the Israeli citizenship of these despicable creators on the grounds of treason against the state."

Segment from the film:

“There was once approval to kill 500 people for one human target,” an ex-Israeli soldier says in the Gaza documentary NAZA, which features testimony alleging AI-assisted targeting and “mass killing on an industrial scale”. pic.twitter.com/ZcbwGkWjiz

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) September 11, 2026

The film features interviews with 24 anonymized Israeli military and intelligence insiders who describe using AI-powered systems to identify targets and carry out remote bombings, often knowing that large numbers of civilians would be killed.

One military insider interviewed for the film said that, in one incident, the killing of up to 500 civilians was approved to kill a single high-value Hamas member.

The Israeli army rejected the allegations made in the film. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 23:25

China's "Dogfighting" Satellites Come Into Focus As US Confirms Space Weapons

The United States has publicly acknowledged that it already has weapons in orbit, adding a new dimension to a military competition increasingly defined by highly maneuverable satellites - and what they could be used for. Air Force Secretary Troy Meink revealed the space weapons in a Monday disclosure at the Air & Space Forces Association's annual conference. 

Among other threats, China's 'dogfighting' satellites have caught the attention of US officials. 

In March of last year, Gen. Michael Guetlein, then the Space Force's vice chief of space operations, described five Chinese objects conducting coordinated maneuvers in low Earth orbit. The service subsequently identified three Shiyan-24C satellites and two Shijian-6 05A/B objects. He said they were "Dogfighting" (not that they had exchanged fire). 

More recent activity includes a Chinese spaceplane releasing a small satellite in June. The object looped around another Chinese satellite before moving back toward the spaceplane, according to LeoLabs tracking data reported by Reuters on September 2. That investigation also examined Chinese research into spacecraft pursuit and capture, while noting that the United States operates its own secretive uncrewed spaceplane. 

What changed this week was Washington's willingness to explicitly acknowledge an orbital arsenal. According to Meink, the United States possesses "on-orbit space control weapons capable of defending the joint force against hostile adversary action." He declined to identify the weapons or describe their technical characteristics, testing or employment.

In a subsequent statement to The War Zone, a Space Force spokesperson said the broader space-control mission includes kinetic and non-kinetic methods of disrupting, degrading or, when necessary, destroying an adversary's capabilities. The spokesperson said those capabilities can serve offensive or defensive purposes, but would not specify which particular systems are currently deployed.

What we don't know is whether the deployed weapons are physical interceptors, electronic warfare systems or something else. Nor does a description of the service's overall mission prove that every type of capability mentioned is already operational in orbit.

This goes way beyond satellites too. Space infrastructure supports communications, intelligence collection, missile warning and weapons guidance, while disruption can also affect civilian and commercial activity. The War Zone's reporting highlighted those dependencies alongside the service's acknowledgment.

China has opposed the U.S. announcement, reiterating its position against the weaponization of space. American officials describe their capabilities as necessary to deter attacks and protect forces. Experts interviewed by Reuters warned that secrecy and uncertainty can encourage competing governments to make worst-case assumptions about one another's intentions.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty is not a blanket prohibition on conventional weapons in Earth orbit. Its central orbital weapons restriction concerns nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. Separate provisions prohibit military installations, weapons testing and military maneuvers on the moon and other celestial bodies. An acknowledgment of conventional orbital weapons therefore does not, on its own, establish a treaty violation.

Now for a 'complicator' - how do governments distinguish routine operations, surveillance, deterrent signaling and preparations for an attack when much of the relevant hardware and doctrine remains classified?

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/17/2026 - 23:00