The post Quick Thoughts on the Labor Market: Don’t Buy the Job Openings Hype appeared first on CEPR.

My mid-week morning plane reads:

• Real-Estate Agents Are Quitting the Slow Housing Market: Four years into a struggling market, even agents who survived the initial shakeout are hitting their breaking point. Fewer sales, longer timelines, second jobs. (Wall Street Journal)

• No, Market Highs Are Not a Bad Sign: The old Ritholtz classic, still relevant—the data on what happens after all-time highs is the opposite of what most people assume. (The Big Picture) see also New All-Time Highs: Since 1950, roughly 7% of all trading days have been new all-time highs. The highest percentage of trading days hitting new highs in a decade is the 1990s at 12.3%. This decade is far from over but we’ve experienced new highs in the S&P 500 in 13% of trading days. (Wealth of Common Sense)

• The Great Wealth Transfer Includes $570 Billion in Classic Cars: Boomers are about to hand off a staggering collection of vintage automobiles. The question is whether anyone under 60 wants them—and what happens to prices when supply floods the market. (Bloomberg)

• Best ETFs 2026: The Morningstar Award for Investing Excellence Winners: Morningstar’s annual ETF honors—the funds that earned top marks for performance, cost efficiency, and risk-adjusted returns. (Morningstar)

• Grocery Shoppers Are In For a Summer of Pain: The Iran war is driving up food costs, and the tariff aftershocks aren’t helping. Expect higher prices at the register through the fall. (Bloomberg)

• America’s Favorite Comedian Wants to Be the Next Walt Disney—and He’s Not Joking: Nate Bargatze, the country’s top selling stand-up comic, has a grand ambition: a $350 million theme park in Nashville, Tenn. (Wall Street Journal)

• If You Take the Weasel Job Then You Must Be the Weasel: Hamilton Nolan on the moral clarity of job titles—if you accept a role that requires you to do terrible things, you don’t get to pretend you’re not the one doing them. (Hamilton Nolan)

• I Want It, But I Don’t Like It: A sharp essay on the gap between desire and enjoyment—why we keep pursuing things that don’t actually make us happy, and what that says about modern consumer psychology. (Panoptica)

• Jimmy Kimmel ‘Felt Defeated’ by Stephen Colbert’s Cancellation and Says Late-Night TV Is Not ‘Dying of Natural Causes’: ‘We’re Being Poisoned’ The “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” host opened up in a new interview with Vulture about the future of the genre following the cancellation of Stephen Colbert‘s “Late Show” on CBS and his own run-ins with Trump, including his suspension following comments made about the death of Charlie Kirk.  (Variety)

• Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals mega-preview: Game 1 tips off June 3 in San Antonio. The Athletic’s comprehensive breakdown—predictions, odds, matchups, and everything else you need before the series starts. (The Athletic)

Video of the day: How a Secretive Trading Empire Is Taking Over Wall Street

Be sure to check out our special Masters in Business this week, Remembering Jonathan Clements with Bill Bernstein and Jason Zweig. The two recall Clements’ impact on the investor community; they discuss his posthumous book, “Money and Me.”

The Deal That Keeps the Oil Flowing

Source: Epicenter

 

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The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Do We Really Believe In Freedom?

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

Do we really believe in freedom?

Or do we only believe in freedom when it applies to people who agree with us?

Do we trust people we fundamentally disagree with to remain free citizens?

Or do we believe they must be controlled through laws, censorship, surveillance, or social pressure because they are too dangerous to be trusted with liberty?

That question sits at the center of what I am most interested in during this moment in history, the 250th year of the American experiment.

Because when I look around, it increasingly feels like both sides are drifting in the same direction while packaging it differently.

Each side frames the other as dangerous, radical, and incapable of self-governance. People on the left often believe the right is racist, authoritarian, anti-science, and driven by extremism. Many people on the right believe the left is hostile to faith, hostile to biology, hostile to free speech, and willing to use institutions to socially engineer society.

If you genuinely believe those things about your political opponents, then freedom starts to feel dangerous.

And once freedom feels dangerous, control starts to feel justified.

For me, the COVID-19 pandemic broke the illusion.

I suddenly realized I could no longer clearly see what the political left still offered someone like me. I watched censorship expand rapidly. I watched speech become conditional. I watched people lose jobs and platforms for asking questions. I watched mandates imposed alongside liability protections and dissent treated as danger.

I watched mandates destroy livelihoods.

I watched small businesses close while major corporations consolidated wealth and power. I watched people who had spent decades building restaurants, gyms, farms, salons, and family businesses suddenly deemed “nonessential.”

I wasn’t reading about these policies. I was living under them.

At the same time, I was living in a state that increasingly felt hostile to the practical realities of my life. Everything started feeling harder. More permits. More taxes. More hoops. More social pressure. It felt harder to make a living, harder to farm, harder to build, harder to protect my family, and harder to simply live outside institutional approval.

Socially, it also became harder to honestly say what I believed without risking professional or personal consequences.

This week, I heard arguments celebrating the fact that Democrats overwhelmingly voted against liability protections for chemical companies accused of poisoning Americans. Many people presented that as evidence that one side cares about ordinary people while the other protects corporations from accountability.

But that moral high ground becomes more complicated when you remember that many of those same political voices supported mandating a vaccine under an emergency authorization, with liability protections already built into the system. At the same time, dissent around those policies was aggressively silenced.

And the reality is that we are still learning about the long-term effects, trade-offs, and consequences years later.

That is not a conspiracy theory.

That is simply how medicine and biology work. Scientific understanding evolves over time.

The George Floyd era accelerated another version of this same instinct.

Suddenly, institutions across America were pressured to publicly demonstrate ideological “purity” around race, gender, identity, and social justice. Diversity, equity, Indigenous representation, and LGBTQ+ inclusion became not just social values but institutional litmus tests in many professional environments.

In some cases, executives, journalists, professors, and employees lost their positions not because they had committed crimes or acts of hatred, but because they failed to meet ideological expectations during a moment of intense cultural pressure.

And once again, people became afraid to say the wrong thing out loud.

But now I watch similar instincts emerge from the political right under different circumstances.

There are increasingly subjects people feel afraid to discuss openly because they fear losing jobs, reputations, platforms, or financial access. Concerns about extremism, hate speech, anti-Semitism, immigration, terrorism, and national security are all increasingly used to justify expanded speech restrictions and surveillance powers.

And to be fair, some of those fears are real.

But history shows that societies rarely surrender freedom all at once. Usually, it happens piece by piece, each side justifying control because they believe the other side is simply too dangerous to remain fully free.

Many people argued I should have stayed and fought politically where I was. But I didn’t.

I moved to Central Texas. Honestly, I needed to breathe a little.

And yet, even now, as I watch the country continue to fracture, I try very hard not to become tribal myself. I try to zoom out and see the bigger picture.

At the core of it, I still believe in freedom.

But that realization leads me to an uncomfortable conclusion: If I truly believe in freedom, then I have to believe the people around me deserve freedom, too—even when I deeply disagree with them.

Otherwise, what I’m actually asking for is not freedom, but power for my side and restriction for theirs.

Maybe the real test of a free society is not whether we support freedom for people we agree with.

Maybe the real test is whether we still support it when we don’t agree with each other.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 21:45

Leftists Try To "Cancel" Giants Quarterback For His Appearance At Trump Rally

Leftists often claim that when someone of celebrity status appears with Donald Trump, it gives Trump "legitimacy."  This is the common rationale they use to justify their insane cult-like behavior - Their habit of using mobs of mindless activist zombies in order to frighten people with status away from openly identifying as conservative.  The truth is, the political left is a paper tiger, an astroturf movement with no power, blustering with false bravado.   

In reality, celebrities do not give Trump legitimacy.  His landslide election victory gives him legitimacy.  

The radical left is a one trick pony, constantly repeating the same lies and exaggerations in the belief that if they lie long enough those lies will eventually become part of the popular zeitgeist.  For example, a white sports star has a positive interaction with Trump and the progressive media conjures a narrative that he is alienating his minority team mates because shaking hands with Trump is the same as shaking hands with "racism."

This tiresome strategy is being used once again on New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart after he appeared on stage with Trump at a New York political rally.  Leftist journalists assert that Dart shaking hands with Trump is the same as shaking hands with Hitler.  The engineered controversy led to a couple of the QB's teammates expressing discomfort over the event. 

Thankfully, the opinions of Dart's teammates are meaningless and he has every right to stand on stage with whoever he pleases.  At present, it seems as though other Giants players understand that they don't have to align politically in order to play a football game. 

Linebacker Abdul Carter (a Muslim) initially voiced discomfort with the optics of the event, according to multiple reports. Dart said he discussed the issue directly with Carter and brushed off any rumors about beef between the two players.  For those who don't like Dart's promotional appearances, frankly they can shut up and stew in their salty snowflake juices about it.

The media, though, is never going to shut up about it because their job is to create controversy out of thin air.

  

Some outlets think Dart needs to be cancelled (as if the political left has any power to cancel anyone anymore).  Sports media site SB Nation claims that Dart's freedom to meet publicly with Trump does not mean he has the freedom to avoid "criticism" (persecution).  It's the same incessant woke argument of "cancel culture vs consequence culture." 

Their version of events displays an insufferable seething; something that might have been more familiar back in 2020.  One has to wonder, do these people ever grow out of their childish delusions of grandeur?  And the answer is no, no they do not.  But we still examine such left-wing crash-outs because they give us insight into the thought processes of progressive authoritarians.  As SB Nation asserts:

"Freedom is pretty great, isn’t it? Here in the United States we love to talk about freedom. The people who love to talk about it the most, who bathe in the idea of American exceptionalism, tend to be those who rarely (if ever) travel abroad. They love to speak about the world in platitudes, always through the lens that the God-loving USA is free, and nowhere else is.  It’s a refrain the majority of Western foreigners find hilarious. Folks in the U.K? They’re free. Europe? Free as well. Australia, Canada, New Zealand — yeah, they’re free.

There are 20 nations broadly recognized as having freedom of expression, with the USA ranking third behind Denmark and Norway. Sure, all those nations might not let you brandish a firearm in public or hurl hate speech at people — but denying that doesn’t make them “un-free.”"

Yes, it does make those countries unfree.  If any viewpoints including the truth can be labeled "hate speech", then the populace does not have free speech.  If the government can put people in prison over jokes and online memes, then those people are not free.  In the UK, around 12,000 people each year are arrested for using restricted speech online.  Most of these arrests are for basic and factual criticisms relating to mass immigration and migrant crime. 

This is not freedom.  

The US is the only country in the world with freedom of speech codified into constitutional law.  It is the only country in the world where the government is restricted from making laws referencing public speech.  SB Nation uses their false narrative of "speech vs hate speech" to launch into their attack on Jaxson Dart.  This is how these people rationalize their totalitarian behavior.  SB Nation continues:

"We’re having this discussion on a sports website because sports are, and always have been, inherently political. It’s impossible to divorce the two, as much as you might want them to be separate..."

For the political left, everything is political.  From movies to TV shows to commercials to video games to comic books to beauty pageants to sports.  Leftist activists believe they should control the platforms of famous people and exploit those platforms for propaganda.  When a celebrity steps out of line, the struggle session begins. 

During the Biden Administration normal people could not escape left-wing politics because they injected their woke ideology into everything.  Sports are not political in the slightest, but progressive movements have tried to force wokeness into them at every turn. 

"Dart made a choice by grinning on stage with the sitting president, one who happens to be historically unpopular, the most divisive in modern history, and largely reviled in both New York and New Jersey, the states the New York Giants represent.

Dart was absolutely free to introduce Trump, he’s free to support him - and personally, I don’t want to see him lose his job for exercising his freedom.  That crucially doesn’t mean Dart should be free of any criticism or allowed to dance away from his decision..."   

A classic woke deflection: "We don't want to see this man cancelled, but he should be cancelled..."  At no point do the people at SBN explain why it's a bad thing for a Giants QB to meet with Donald Trump, other than leftists in New York "don't like Trump" and they think Trump is vaguely racist, even though they can't come up with a single legitimate example of racism. 

"Dart has spoken as well, but limited his remarks on the appearance to a pre-written statement and has not taken any questions. Even in an instance where a white athlete started the drama, it’s become incumbent upon his black teammates to answer the lion’s share of questions about their teammate. Unfortunately, this is par for the course..."

Trump's policies have nothing to do with Jaxson Dart.  The man is not political and his views are not up for scrutiny simply because he likes a President that leftists hate.  Jaxson Dart does not answer to The View.  He does not answer to SB Nation.  He does not have to answer to his teammates, and his teammates don't have to answer to the media. 

As much as the activist mob might want to make Dart pay for escaping the liberal plantation, none of them has the power to do anything to him.  There comes a point when leftists need to accept that they are impotent.  Their cancel culture heyday is long gone and the culture of sane normality is leaving them far behind.      

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 21:20

High-Dose Vitamin D Lowers Diabetes Risk In Some People

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times,

A specific variation in the vitamin D receptor gene may determine whether high-dose supplementation lowers diabetes risk in prediabetic people.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Nearly 115 million Americans are on the road to diabetes. New research suggests an inexpensive, widely available supplement could slow that journey, but only for some of them.

A genetic quirk in roughly 70 percent of prediabetic adults may determine whether high-dose vitamin D can meaningfully lower their risk of developing Type 2 diabetes, according to a study published in JAMA Network Open.

The research builds on the D2d trial. More than 2,000 U.S. adults living with prediabetes were randomized to either take 4,000 units of vitamin D or a placebo for up to 3.5 years. Initially, the trial did not find any significant changes across the participants. The recommended daily allowance is 600 to 800 units for average adults.

However, when scientists analyzed participants' DNA, a more nuanced picture emerged: those carrying specific variations - known as AC or CC - in a gene called ApaI responded strongly to supplementation. Over the 3.5 years of the study, participants carrying the AC or CC variant had a 19 percent lower chance of developing diabetes. The roughly 30 percent with the AA variation saw no benefit at all.

"Diabetes has so many serious complications that develop slowly over years," study lead researcher Bess Dawson-Hughes said in a statement. "If we can delay the time a person spends living with diabetes, we can reduce some of those harmful side effects or lessen their severity."

The distinction matters because prediabetes - defined by higher-than-normal blood sugar that hasn't yet crossed into diabetes territory - affects more than two in five U.S. adults, and often progresses silently. Identifying who stands to benefit from vitamin D intervention could allow clinicians to target supplementation far more precisely than current blanket guidelines allow.

1 Gene Affects How Your Body Responds To Vitamin D

Vitamin D in the blood is converted into its active form in the body. Vitamin D receptors are highly prevalent and present in many cells throughout the body.

When vitamin D binds to cell receptors, it helps cells do what they are supposed to do. In pancreatic cells, vitamin D facilitates the release of insulin to regulate blood sugar.

People with the AC and CC variations were responsive to vitamin D and, therefore, derived more benefits from supplementation.

* * * 

[ZH: We sell high-dose Vitamin D + K2, which massively helps with calcium absorption. Pick some up here.]

* * *

The findings could help develop a personalized approach to preventing Type 2 diabetes, senior author Anastassios Pittas, a professor at Tufts University School of Medicine, said in the statement. "Part of what makes vitamin D appealing as a potential preventive tool is that it is inexpensive, widely available, and easy for people to take."

However, researchers emphasized that more research is needed to determine which individuals might benefit from higher doses of vitamin D, with Dawson-Hughes noting that future testing could involve a simple, affordable genetic test to identify those most likely to benefit from supplementation.

Recommendations For Vitamin D Levels

The first step is to have your 25-hydroxyvitamin D level tested, Diana Cusa, senior registered dietitian at Plainview Hospital in New York, and not involved in the study, told The Epoch Times.

"If your levels are found to be deficient, you may consider supplementation and review your dietary intake and sun exposure habits," she said.

Cusa recommended that those who choose supplements should take 600 to 800 international units (IU) daily of vitamin D3 for general health. "Higher doses may be needed if a deficiency is noted or for any targeted prevention trials," she added.

Current guidelines recommend 600 IU per day for people up to 70 years of age and 800 IU for those older than 70. Excessive vitamin D intake can be harmful and has been linked to increased risks of falls and fractures among older adults.

Sunlight, Cusa pointed out, is one of the most effective natural sources of vitamin D, and spending time outdoors can help boost your levels. "However, it's important to be cautious - not to spend too long in the sun without proper sunscreen, as excessive exposure increases the risk of skin cancer," she cautioned.

While you cannot overdose on vitamin D from sun exposure, she added, taking high-dose supplements can lead to toxicity, "so supplementation should be approached carefully and ideally under medical guidance."

Natural sources of vitamin D include fatty fish such as salmon, tuna, mackerel, sardines, and rainbow trout. Other good sources are beef liver, mushrooms, egg yolks, and cod liver oil. "These foods, which are rich in protein and healthy fats, can help support stable blood glucose levels when consumed in moderation," Cusa said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 20:55

US Treasury Sanctions Iran's Largest Crypto Exchange

Peace talks appear stalled, or even halted completely - despite President Trump's denials - and the US Department of Treasury is still swinging hard, as part of the ongoing effort to bring about economic collapse in Iran and 'solve' the Hormuz Strait shipping crisis.

In the latest installment of Washington's economic whac-a-mole, the US on Tuesday unveiled sanctions on Iran's biggest cryptocurrency exchange - and several others, for allegedly enabling the Iranian government and blacklisted state institutions to thwart US and EU sanctions.

The largest platform, identified as Nobitex, is believed to have assisted in allowing hundreds of millions of dollars to pour into Iran's central bank and the ⁠Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as a sanctions work-around and parallel financial system.

via Shutterstock 

"While Iran’s economy is in free ⁠fall, the regime has chosen to co-opt digital asset technologies for its own corrupt agenda, including evading sanctions and transferring wealth out of the country," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in announcing the new action.

"Following the commencement of U.S. combat operations in Iran, Nobitex played a role in protecting and moving assets and funds out of Iran to shield regime ‌wealth despite ​internet blackouts," the statement added.

Nobitex rejected that it has direct government connections and denied that it has been assisting state institutions. It also said it did nothing to conceal the identities of the owners.

As for ownership, Reuters has documented:

...Nobitex is controlled by two brothers from one of Iran’s most ​powerful families, with close ‌ties to the new supreme leader. The two are members of the Kharrazi family, one of the most influential dynasties ‌in the Islamic Republic. Corporate records show that when the exchange started, the brothers were listed under a surname rarely used by members of the family.

The brothers were named by the Treasury as Seyed Mohammad ‌Ali Aghamir Mohammad Ali ⁠and Seyed Mohammad Aghamir Mohammad Ali, who were also subject to individual sanctions, along with the exchange’s chief executive officer, Amir ⁠Hossein Rad.

Last Friday Bessent detailed how the US has seized a total of $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency assets to date as part of the economic component of President Trump's Operation Epic Fury.

During a speech before the Reagan National Economic Forum, Bessent stated:

"Just outright grabbed the wallets. Some of them may be typing in right now and might not realize their wallet had been grabbed."

Assets are held "on behalf of the Iranian people" - he described, while framing that the Iranian government had 'stolen' the money from the Iranian populace.

Did this action help fuel BTC's crashing well below $68K on Tuesday?

Today's sanctions against Nobitex, Wallex, Bitpin, and Ramzinex target the Iranian digital asset exchanges responsible for at least 72% of all Iranian digital asset inflows in 2025.

Remember that much of the crypto going into Iran has flowed through Binance over the years. With… https://t.co/5SiHwTTGVC

— Max Meizlish (@maxmeizlish) June 2, 2026

As we've featured before, for ordinary Iranians - roughly one in six of the population - crypto served as a vital lifeline. Facing relentless rial depreciation (down nearly 90 percent since 2018), chronic inflation of 40 to 50 percent, and frequent power blackouts or internet shutdowns during protests, citizens turned to Bitcoin and stablecoins like U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins (USDT) on the Tron network to hedge savings, facilitate remittances, and move value when traditional banking failed. Spikes in Bitcoin withdrawals to personal wallets often coincided with domestic unrest and regional conflicts.

Yet this parallel financial system has also become a powerful tool for the state. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) steadily tightened its grip on Iran’s crypto flows. IRGC-linked addresses received more than $3 billion in 2025—up from over $2 billion in 2024—with their share rising to more than 50 percent of total Iranian crypto inflows by the end of 2025. These figures represent conservative lower bounds based only on identified and sanctioned wallets.

Washington in the meantime is still entertaining dreams of sparking some kind of anti-regime uprising based on applying the economic squeeze to the Iranian system, but apart from unrest back in January, this has utterly failed to materialize. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 20:30

Trump Signs AI 'Cyber Defense' Executive Order

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

AI companies would be required to submit their frontier models on a voluntary review basis before public releases.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on June 2 intended to address cybersecurity threats posed by artificial intelligence (AI) technology and the new frontier models being released by major industry players.

Signed in private, the order allows some AI firms to submit their cutting-edge frontier models to a voluntary government review 30 days before a full public release.

That would entail "provid[ing] the Federal Government with access to covered frontier models, subject to appropriate confidentiality, cybersecurity, insider-risk, and intellectual-property protection, use, and nondisclosure requirements, for a period of up to 30 days before they plan to release such models to other trusted partners."

The order also gives the Pentagon, the Department of Homeland Security, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the Office of Management and Budget, and other related agencies 30 days to "expedite and prioritize the cyber defense of civilian Federal Government information systems" and establish or expand a federal program that would "enhance AI-enabled defensive tools."

Trump's order also creates an "AI cybersecurity clearinghouse" that would function in "voluntary collaboration" with the AI industry and other critical infrastructure operators. The goal would be to scan for software vulnerabilities in frontier AI models while prioritizing "remediation and distribution of vulnerability patches."

Trump had planned to sign a previous version of this executive order, but said on May 21 that he would delay the signing after becoming dissatisfied with "certain aspects of it."

Earlier that month, the Commerce Department's Center for AI Standards and Innovation announced partnerships with AI giants Google, Microsoft, and xAI to test their new frontier models for potential security risks ahead of full public releases.

Cybersecurity concerns over frontier AI models surged after Anthropic on April 7 announced its Claude Mythos Preview model, which is not yet publicly available due to the company's concerns that bad actors could use it to find critical software exploits.

The Trump administration had previously moved to ban Anthropic from doing business with the federal government after the company refused to grant the Pentagon unrestricted access to its Claude models, stating that it was concerned they would be used for mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons, which the Pentagon denies.

Despite the ban, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said in April that he had been in talks with the Trump administration over Claude Mythos Preview.

The Alliance for Secure AI, a nonprofit that "educates the public about the implications of advanced AI," on June 2 called for Congress to codify Trump's executive order to "create a legal framework that makes federal government review of advanced AI models mandatory."

Trump's executive order allows AI companies to submit their frontier models to government review on a voluntary basis.

"After the national security wake-up call from advanced AI models like Mythos, we are pleased to see that the Trump administration is taking the risks of these models seriously. However, we know that Big Tech will still try to cut corners on safety and security," Brendan Steinhauser, CEO of The Alliance for Secure AI, said in a statement.

"The next AI models will be even more powerful and will pose even bigger threats to our country than Mythos. These companies need oversight and cannot be trusted to do the right thing voluntarily."

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 20:05

US, China Militaries Hold 'Candid' Deconfliction Talks In Hawaii As Trump Goes Quiet On Taiwan

American and Chinese military officers have sat down for rare deconfliction talks in Hawaii, soon on the heels of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing last month. According to a late Monday statement from the Chinese Navy, the two superpowers held what they described as "candid and constructive" exchanges during a two-day closed-door meeting. It happened last week in Honolulu, reports have newly revealed.

The sides came away agreeing that improved communication could successfully reduce tactical miscalculations and enhance professionalism in the highly contested waters and skies of the Indo-Pacific.

Prior 2018 exchange, via Reuters

There's been a recent uptick in Chinese PLA military drills near Taiwan, with warplanes frequently buzzing the self-ruled island. But Washington has been fairly quiet in response to these developments which have put Taipei's armed forces frequently on high alert.

The sudden outbreak of US-China military-to-military dialogue is clearly designed to ease diplomatic anxieties especially after top Chinese military officials noticeably boycotted the high-profile Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore over the weekend.

President Trump in the meantime has been making clear that he will not have direct contact with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, in line with long-running status quote policy.

That a sitting US president is not speaking to Taiwan's elected leader is actually normal based on Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity, and official acknowledgement of 'One China'.

Trump is strongly signaling that this will not change for now:

No sitting U.S. president has spoken directly with a Taiwanese leader since 1979 due to diplomatic sensitivities in managing relations with China, although in December 2016, while Mr. Trump was president-elect, he received a congratulatory call from then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ying-wen.

"I think [Lai], if he has time, would love to tell him our side of the story, the Taiwan story, which is one that — of resiliency, of a state staying up against the Chinese aggression," Alexander Yui, Taiwan's Representative to the U.S., told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on May 17.

At last month's summit, Xi and Trump reportedly agreed to pursue a "constructive relationship of strategic stability." Geopolitical analysts are spinning this as an attempt to finally establish practical boundaries for how the two nuclear-armed titans interact on the global stage.

Wang Dong, an international studies professor at Peking University, summarized the shift in a statement to Reuters: "This shared strategic framing shifts the bilateral dynamic beyond reactive crisis management toward more deliberate, forward-looking stability-building."

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has lately made a surprising declaration which indicated relations between the US and China are actually better than they've been in many years. However, this might be news to Beijing. But if the White House keeps staying relatively quiet on the Taiwan issue, China will indeed see this as a win.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 19:40

US Bill Would Prevent Chinese Connected Cars In Canada From Entering United States

Authored by Olivia Gomm via The Epoch Times,

Two U.S. lawmakers are set to introduce a bill aimed at preventing Chinese-connected vehicles from entering the United States via Canada and Mexico, amid growing concerns over Chinese-made electric vehicles entering the Canadian market.

BYD electric cars waiting to be loaded on a ship are stacked at the international container terminal of Taicang Port at Suzhou Port, in China's eastern Jiangsu Province on Sept. 11, 2023. AFP via Getty Images

U.S. Representative Haley Stevens and Senator Elissa Slotkin, both Democrats, announced the Protecting America from Chinese Cars Act last week at a conference in Michigan.

The bill would prohibit connected vehicles from China and other "adversarial nations" from entering the United States, including vehicles made or designed in China, as well as vehicles made by a Chinese company or an entity more than 15 percent owned by Chinese companies, according to a May 28 press release from Stevens's office.

It would also establish a process for vehicle manufacturers to apply for specific authorization to allow otherwise prohibited vehicles to enter the United States. Authorization would only be granted under "strict conditions, with both transparency and congressional oversight."

Federal authorities in Canada have also raised concerns that connected vehicles could pose security and privacy risks if the data they collect falls into the wrong hands.

In a memo, Public Safety Canada said Canada must expand its economy in response to a changing geopolitical environment, but warned that opening its markets to "new players" could also "amplify the presence of high-risk vendors."

The department said unauthorized access to data and connected vehicle systems "could be used to establish patterns of life or conduct surveillance on sensitive sites." It also said national security laws in countries such as China can compel manufacturers and suppliers to share data with their home governments or police, increasing the risk that Canadian data could be exploited.

A one-page readout on the U.S. bill says connected vehicles would threaten U.S. national security if the information collected "were to fall into the hands of our adversaries."

"Vehicles today can collect and transmit massive amounts of data - geolocation of drivers, mapping of critical infrastructure, full-motion video, and more," the readout says.

Connected vehicles could also be "remotely accessed and tampered with," presenting a "tremendous" risk to U.S. safety and security, the readout says, noting the Chinese auto industry is heavily subsidized, allowing Beijing to "undercut competitors and quickly flood new markets."

"The Chinese Communist Party should never have access to sensitive information about American drivers, roads, or critical infrastructure," Stevens said in a statement, adding that the bill would "close dangerous loopholes" that currently allow Chinese connected vehicles to enter the United States through Canada and Mexico.

Canada's Auto Sector

Recent data from Global Affairs Canada indicates 2,910 Chinese EVs were allowed into Canada for the first time in May, after Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed in January to allow up to 49,000 Chinese EVs into Canada at a reduced tariff rate of 6.1 percent, from the previous 100 percent rate.

Ottawa has said 49,000 EVs represent less than 3 percent of Canada's auto market, but the quota represents nearly half of Canada's battery electric sales in 2025.

According to data tabled in the House of Commons on May 29 by International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu in response to a question by Conservative MP Rhonda Kirkland, the initial 49,000-unit quota will grow 6.5 percent, exceeding 63,000 units by February 2031.

Sidhu said at least 10 percent of the quota volume must be reserved for lower-cost EVs by the second quota year, increasing on an annual basis to reach 50 percent of the total quota volume by year five.

The minister also said the arrangement is expected to catalyze new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada to create new automotive manufacturing jobs for Canadians.

Chinese electric vehicle company BYD said last week that it plans to enter the Canadian market at the end of this year, and open more than 20 dealerships, including in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal.

Canadian automotive representatives have voiced concern about Chinese EVs potentially undermining Canada's auto sector and presenting risks to the future of Canada's integrated North American automotive supply chain.

Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association CEO Brian Kingston has said the future of Canada's auto sector depends on the country's trade relations with the United States - the destination of 90 percent of Canadian-made autos.

Industry Minister Mélanie Joly told MPs at a parliamentary committee meeting last month that her government's approach to Chinese EVs is "very holistic" in protecting auto workers and supply chains "while bringing in really good technologies."

Forced Labour

Human rights groups, China experts, and opposition MPs have also raised concerns that goods made with forced labour are being used to manufacture cars and parts assembled in China.

While the Canada Border Services Agency has blocked some shipments of Chinese car parts over forced labour concerns in recent years, there have been far fewer enforcement cases in Canada than in the United States.

Forced labour was raised as a concern in the United States Trade Representative's annual report on foreign trade barriers released March 31, which said Canada's enforcement measures remain limited in some areas.

Sidhu said in his May 29 response that all Chinese automotive manufacturers that intend to sell EVs in Canada must comply with Canadian laws and regulations, including those related to data governance, labour standards, and environmental requirements.

Paul Rowan Brian and The Canadian Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 19:15

"The Value Didn't Arrive": Bain Finds Cost-Savings From AI Are Falling Far Short Of Projections

Now that attention within the AI revolution has one again firmly turned toward the cost-benefit equation (i..e., ROI) of tokens (see "From Singularity To Tokenomics: The AI Narrative Just Hit A Serious Snag") in particular, and the trillions behind the AI spending rollout in general, and we say once again because every few months we get some iteration of the following report from Goldman published almost two years ago today...

... we have more bad news: according to a global survey by Bain, cost savings from automation are broadly falling short of projections. Which means that those expecting big savings from their investments in artificial intelligence, which is most companies, will be disappointed. 

The missed targets “should be making executives uncomfortable,” since many of them are approving increased spending for artificial intelligence on the basis of expected savings, the consulting firm said in a report shared exclusively with Bloomberg News. The problem is there are little actual savings to speak of. 

The survey, completed in April, was based on responses from executives at 951 companies with more than $100 million in revenue, across nine sectors: retail, technology, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, consumer products, energy, financial services, telecom/media/entertainment and insurance.

It found that among companies measuring their AI cost savings, the largest share (40%) realized reductions of 10% or less. Predictably, most had been expecting to see far more meaningful improvement, especially since they spent far more than that on the new technology. 

Here’s the part that Bain found the most troubling: 44% of large companies that are funding their next wave of AI spending are basing those investments on the last round of savings - savings that haven’t yet materialized. 

“The prior wave underdelivered. The savings pool is smaller than assumed,” Bain warned. “And the investment case for the current wave was sized against projections rather than actuals.” Kinda like the bubble in AI forward earnings: based on projections - which as any intern can tell you can flip on a dime - rather than actuals. 

“Self-funding the next wave from past returns sounds like discipline. In reality, it is a circular bet with a structural leak,” the firm cautioned, and concluded that "The technology worked. The value didn’t arrive."

Whether driven by hope or FOMO or a blend of both, the AI boom is exposing divides between promise and reality. An MIT research report last year showed that 95% of corporate AI pilots fall flat and concluded that the “primary factor keeping organizations on the wrong side of the GenAI Divide is the learning gap, tools that don't learn, integrate poorly, or match workflows.” 

So Bain’s latest survey wasn’t the first evidence of AI underdelivering so far on expectations. And it’s not likely the last either.

But the Bain report isolated a different problem: “Despite a decade of investments in data modernization running well into hundreds of billions of dollars globally, the No. 1 reason AI programs underperform is that companies cannot reliably get access to their own data,” Bain said.

“Companies that don’t validate their reinvestment math against what automation actually returned, rather than what it was supposed to return, are compounding risk rather than managing it” the Bain report concluded, confirming what many have already sensed: virtually nobody has done effective ROI analysis amid a technological rollout that has already soaked up more than $1 trillion in capital, the return on which appears to be modest at best. 

Bain's prescription: Instead of waiting to structure all of their data to make it ingestible by AI, companies should start with what’s available to feed into the models, and then use AI to help sort out how to structure the rest.

Meanwhile, companies that were meeting their savings targets reported running into barriers with data structure and accessibility at even higher rates than those missing their targets, but they were less likely to report organizational challenges such as insufficient budgets or competing priorities.

Adding fuel to the fire, a comparable report from Gartner found that over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027, due to escalating costs, unclear business value or inadequate risk controls. 

“Most agentic AI projects right now are early stage experiments or proof of concepts that are mostly driven by hype and are often misapplied,” said Anushree Verma, Senior Director Analyst, Gartner. “This can blind organizations to the real cost and complexity of deploying AI agents at scale, stalling projects from moving into production. They need to cut through the hype to make careful, strategic decisions about where and how they apply this emerging technology.”

As such, Gartner recommends agentic AI only be pursued where it delivers clear value or ROI, noting that "Integrating agents into legacy systems can be technically complex, often disrupting workflows and requiring costly modifications. In many cases, rethinking workflows with agentic AI from the ground up is the ideal path to successful implementation."

“To get real value from agentic AI, organizations must focus on enterprise productivity, rather than just individual task augmentation,” said Verma. “They can start by using AI agents when decisions are needed, automation for routine workflows and assistants for simple retrieval. It’s about driving business value through cost, quality, speed and scale.” 

The problem, it now appears, is that virtually nobody has done an actual ROI analysis. But with token costs now soaring...

... the time has finally arrived, and as enterprises pull back in horror from the "great promise" of the agentic black hole, one can easily understand why both OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which are extrapolating their burst in agentic revenue in perpetuity, are rushing to go public before the market once again does the ROI math.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 18:50

Dems Have A Voter Problem. Gerrymandering Was Never Going To Fix It

Authored by Ryan Young via RealClearPolitics,

In November 2024, 47% of Virginia voters cast ballots for Republican congressional candidates. Under the map Virginia Democrats tried to push through, those voters would have ended up with exactly one Republican district out of 11. Going from a 6-5 to a 10-1 split was what Democrats called "restoring fairness."

To get it done, Democrats bypassed a bipartisan redistricting commission that Virginia voters had specifically created in 2020 to end partisan map-drawing. They drafted the new map behind closed doors. They passed a constitutional amendment on Oct. 31, 2025, even though early voting for the general election had been underway since Sept. 19 - violating the state constitution's requirement that an intervening election occur between the two legislative votes. They missed the requirement that amendments be posted publicly 90 days before a vote. And they put a ballot question before voters asking whether they wanted to "restore fairness" - language a circuit court judge called "flagrantly misleading."

Every step of this process required ignoring a rule or deceiving a voter.

That is not a party making a policy argument. That is a party that has decided winning at any cost is more important than following the rules.

When the Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that the effort was unconstitutional, Democrats did not stop and reflect. Instead, they doubled down. Rather than accept the Virginia Supreme Court's decision, House Speaker Don Scott and Attorney General Jay Jones filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, riddled with spelling errors and mistakes. U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the ruling "unprecedented and undemocratic." U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said four unelected judges had "cast aside the will of the voters." Most revealingly, the New York Times reported that, on a call with Jeffries, Virginia Democratic members of Congress discussed lowering the mandatory retirement age for Virginia Supreme Court justices from 73 to 54 - the exact age of the youngest justice in the majority. This would force the entire court to retire and create an opportunity to replace them with justices who would reinstate the map. Today's Democratic politicians are showing their true colors: These are radicals in moderates' clothing. Republicans should respond accordingly.

Republicans should not mistake what happened in Virginia for a one-off procedural accident. Democrats' willingness to bypass a voter-approved bipartisan commission, ignore constitutional rules, mislead voters on the ballot, and then float court-packing to overcome their illegality is a window into how the modern Democratic Party operates.

But Democrats' bizarre map was never going to solve their underlying problem.

People are voting with their feet by moving to well-run red states. The 2030 census is projected to shift eight to 10 electoral votes from blue states to red ones - a 16- to 20-point shift that will dramatically tighten the path to the White House for a Democrat candidate.

If Democrats want to compete in the years ahead, they will need to move to the middle to meet voters where they are. Instead of seeking to rig the game, Democrats should persuade voters on the issues the voters actually care about. They should support mainstream, commonsense ideas that they have too long resisted. School choice polls at roughly 74% nationally. Voter ID polls at 84%. Cracking down on welfare fraud polls at 71%, including 62% of Democrats. These are easy wins just waiting for politicians of both parties. It doesn't take a political genius to realize that Democrats should stop their sprint to the left and side with the majority of voters instead.

Virginia's brief attempt at gerrymandering was a disgrace and a national embarrassment. Democrats' unhinged reaction to its defeat was even worse. But the aftermath should be a moment of reflection and readjustment for both parties. Voters are looking for leaders who listen to their concerns, make government work for them, and improve their lives. Democrats should seek to win, fair and square, by pursuing commonsense policies the people want. This is how our system is supposed to work. Otherwise, Democrats - and voters - will continue to see red.

Ryan Young is the Legal Fellow at the Foundation for Government Accountability.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 18:25

Woman Fatally Stabbed "Two Dozen Times" In Brazen Daytime Attack On Atlanta's MARTA Train

A woman riding a MARTA train in Atlanta was killed in a brutal daytime attack Saturday, suffering nearly 20 stab wounds in what investigators say was a seemingly random act of violence, according to the NY Post.

Police allege that 25-year-old John Elijah Matthews approached 66-year-old Margaret Swan after boarding the train Saturday morning. Surveillance video reportedly shows him lingering near Swan before pulling out a knife and attacking her. According to court documents, Swan cried out and attempted to get away, but the suspect allegedly restrained her and repeatedly stabbed her.

Investigators say the assault continued as the train neared Oakland City Station. Matthews allegedly forced Swan to the floor and remained over her while she lay gravely injured.

The NY Post writes that after the attack, authorities say the suspect exited the train carrying the knife, leaving Swan motionless inside the rail car. Responding officers and emergency personnel tried to save her, but she was pronounced dead. The knife believed to have been used in the attack was later recovered.

Witness descriptions helped MARTA police quickly locate and arrest Matthews on the station platform shortly after the incident.

In a statement, MARTA officials described the killing as a senseless tragedy and extended condolences to Swan’s family, as well as those who witnessed the violence firsthand.

The fatal stabbing came just days after another passenger was attacked at Georgia State Station, raising fresh concerns about safety across the transit system. Some riders argued that recent changes to fare collection have made it easier for unauthorized individuals to access trains and stations, though officials have not linked the policy to either incident.

Matthews, who reportedly has no fixed address, remains in custody at the Fulton County Jail. He has been charged with felony murder and was scheduled to appear in court Monday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 18:00

A Mass-Graves Myth Is Media Malpractice

Authored by Daniel McCarthy via PJ Media,

A hoax costs taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars and appears to incite arson attacks against dozens of churches.

No, this isn't the latest headline out of Minnesota - look a little further north.

Dietmar Rabich / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0

In 2021, at a time when media throughout the Western world were still in a state of agitation after the killing of George Floyd, Canadian outlets picked up a story too sensational not to be true:

Hundreds of indigenous First Nations children had been buried in unmarked graves at residential schools run by the Catholic Church in British Columbia.

The Kamloops Indian Band sent around a press release that "confirmed" it.

The statement claimed the remains of 215 children had been found with the help of an expert using ground-penetrating radar.

"We had a knowing in our community that we were able to verify," said the band's chief, Rosanne Casimir.

"Some were as young as three years old," she continued, asserting "the final resting place of these children" was in the Kamloops Indian Residential School.

Only it wasn't. No human remains have been found at Kamloops, as media that fanned the flames of the story now admit.

Even now, Canada's biggest daily paper, The Globe and Mail, phrases its retraction in cagey terms.

"There has been no public confirmation of the discovery of any human remains," the paper conceded on May 30.

That funny phrasing leaves one wondering, is there private confirmation of human remains - another "knowing," perhaps?

The Globe and Mail editorial, titled "There is no reconciliation without truth," is a masterpiece of embarrassed equivocation, lamenting conditions for First Nations children at Canada's residential schools and even insisting the absence of bodies "does not mean children did not die there" before finally, eight paragraphs into the story, taking a smidgen of responsibility:

"The media, including The Globe and Mail, did not initially scrutinize, much less challenge" the story, the editorial board concedes.

"The initial headlines and stories in the media simply stated as fact that the remains of 215 children had been found. Many of those early stories, including in this newspaper, made references to 'mass graves'," a phrase that went beyond even Chief Casimir's claims.

Yet right after admitting its failures, the paper speculates, "Perhaps it will be proven, some day, that there are hundreds of unmarked graves at Kamloops" - as if the error here was being a little too hasty to declare what will sooner or later turn out to be true.

After all, that would be the "truth" that fits the narrative The Globe and Mail lays out in the first seven paragraphs of its story, a tale of wicked residential schools and countless First Nations children doomed to a miserable death.

The narrative comes first - the facts must follow.

This time they didn't, but next time?

The narrative isn't going away just because its showcase story has been debunked.

The consequences of the media hype aren't going away, either:

Canadian taxpayers footed the bill to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars - real money in U.S. dollars, too - for First Nations groups to investigate "soil anomalies."

The government simply doesn't know where the money went.

As enormous as the fraud here appears to be, worse is the destruction unleashed by arsonists and vandals against Catholic Churches in the story's wake.

Canada's state broadcaster, the CBC, cataloged 33 churches "burned to the ground" between 2021 and 2024, with 24 of those incidents "confirmed arsons."

"A researcher and some community leaders suggest Canada's colonial history and recent discoveries of potential burial sites at former residential schools may have lit the fuse" for these incendiary attacks, the CBC reported.

Yet the media lit the fuse - not only by hyping an outrageous story that was never backed up by evidence but also by laying down a grand narrative that stoked anger at churches.

(And, in typical fashion, although the residential schools were Catholic-run, other churches also suffered from indiscriminate attacks apparently inspired by the story.)

We see this kind of thing too often in America, too.

Unlike the unmarked graves at Kamloops, George Floyd's death was a reality.

But the grand narrative spun by the media for years leading up to the riots perpetrated in Floyd's memory was every bit as irresponsible as the narrative that sold the Kamloops hoax.

Black Americans were not being casually killed by white police officers, and high-profile cases like Floyd's almost always involved individuals who were violently resisting arrest.

American media outlets, like Canada's, have let progressive politics shape the stories they tell - and how they tell stories - and this often leads to violence.

The Globe and Mail has a long way to go before it makes amends, and the same can be said about a shameful number of America's largest news sources, too.

Daniel McCarthy is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 17:40

Permadrought: 75% Of Global Population Lives In A Country Affected By 'The Great Drying'

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Our planet is drying out at a pace that is unlike anything we have ever seen before. Once massive lakes are rapidly shrinking, once mighty rivers are steadily dwindling, and colossal underground aquifers are being pumped dry all over the world. This is an absolutely enormous problem, because very soon we simply will not have enough fresh water to support 8 billion people. In fact, drought conditions are severely affecting global crop production in 2026. If current trends continue, it will become increasingly difficult to grow food. In other words, if the land on our planet doesn’t stop drying out there is no way that we will be able to avoid an era of widespread global famines.

This isn’t something that just started happening recently.

Over the last several decades, the world has been losing fresh water “at an unprecedented rate”…

The world is losing fresh water at an unprecedented rate, two decades’ worth of satellite data has revealed.

Measurements from NASA’s twin GRACE satellites and GRACE follow-on missions have shown that since 2002, the amount of land suffering from water loss has been increasing year on year by twice the area of the state of California. That includes the loss of water from surface reservoirs such as lakes and rivers and underground aquifers, which are an important source of drinking water around the globe.

Mega-drying regions have emerged across the Northern Hemisphere with the worst-hit areas extending across the western coast of North America, Southwestern North America and Central America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Just look at what has been happening to the Great Salt Lake.

Once upon a time it was absolutely gigantic.

But now it has lost approximately 73 percent of its water and approximately 60 percent of its surface area.

Of course this isn’t just happening in the United States.

One study found that 75 percent of the population of the world currently lives in a country that is being affected by “continental drying”…

Much of the Earth is suffering a pandemic of “continental drying,” affecting the countries containing 75% of the world’s population, the new research shows.

The study, published in the journal Science Advances, examined changes to Earth’s total supply of fresh water and found that nearly 6 billion people live in the 101 countries facing a net decline in water supply, posing a “critical, emerging threat to humanity.”

I was stunned when I first read that.

If 6 billion people live in nations that are steadily drying out, what does that mean for the future of humanity?

We aren’t just talking about a few isolated deserts.

The United Nations is telling us that excluding Antarctica, drylands now account for more than 40 percent of all the land on this planet.

And more than three-quarters of all the land on this planet has been getting drier over the past 30 years…

As Earth continues to warm, more and more of the planet is becoming dry. A 2024 UN report found that in the last three decades, over three-fourths of all the world’s land became drier than it had been in the previous 30 years.

Drylands now comprise 40.6% of all global land (excluding Antarctica). In addition, the number of people living in drylands doubled over the last 30 years to 2.3 billion, which represents over 25% of the global population. In a worst-case climate change scenario, this number could climb to 5 billion by 2100.

Many of us have just come to accept that drought is a normal part of life.

If you look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, it is a nightmare.

Right now, more than 60 percent of the continental United States is experiencing at least some level of drought…

As of May 26, 2026, 50.77% of the United States and Puerto Rico and 60.77% of the Lower 48 states are in drought.

Some of the areas that are being hit the hardest are where we grow our food.

In particular, wheat farmers in the U.S. are having a very challenging time this year…

It’s a perfect storm of terrible conditions for wheat farmers this year. Drought, dramatic swings in temperature, the skyrocketing price of fertilizer and diesel, plus multiple viruses affecting wheat have all led to one of the most challenging years for farmers in decades.

There are different classes of winter wheat, but they’re all down when compared to last year’s crop, explained Todd Hubbs, a crop marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University Extension.

What are they supposed to do?

If it doesn’t rain, it doesn’t rain.

Unfortunately, it is being projected that the winter wheat harvest in the U.S. will be down by 21 percent compared to last year…

The most widely produced class of wheat in the U.S., Hard Red Winter wheat, has a current production forecast of 515 million bushels. That may sound like a lot, but it would end up being the lowest since 1957, Hubbs said.

Soft red winter and white wheat varieties are also having tough years, with the lowest production volume in 6 to 10 years.

In all, growers will see their smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1.56 billion bushels this year, down 21% from 2025.

Are you going to eat 21 percent less wheat this year?

I don’t think that anyone is planning to make that kind of sacrifice.

But there simply won’t be as much wheat as normal in 2026.

Kansas is a key wheat producing state, and a lack of rain has created nightmare conditions in much of the state…

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) data, published May 28, shows 57% of Kansas suffering from drought, Sittel said.

“For the 26-year history of the USDM, the median coverage of drought in Kansas is 22%, which is another way to look at our current conditions against a historical time series,” Sittel said.

Typically, the winter wheat crop receives a few inches of rainfall in the spring, but that didn’t happen this year.

“The majority of the crop didn’t get that extra rainfall, and where we didn’t get any of that rainfall, a lot of times the crop already got terminated and insurance was called upon,” Lollato said. “Or we’re looking at very, very limited yield potentials, like 15–20 bushels per acre.”

We just experienced the driest first three months of a year ever recorded in the United States.

That is really saying something.

In addition to a seemingly endless drought, U.S. farmers are also facing much higher prices for diesel fuel and fertilizer.

On top of everything else, now a “Super El Niño” is coming, and that means that drought conditions will greatly intensify in many parts of the world.

This may be a good time to remind my readers that the “Super El Niño” of 1877-1878 caused horrifying droughts that killed more than 50 million people all over the globe.

Unfortunately, scientists are warning that the “Super El Niño” that will start later this year could be even more powerful.

Yes, we really are facing a catastrophic scenario.

But for now most of the population is still pretending that everything is going to be just fine, and so they continue to party as things rapidly get worse all around them.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 17:00

DOGE Alumni Launch AI Startup To Target Waste On Main Street - And Already Have Their First Target

Two alumni of the Department of Government Efficiency are bringing their cost-cutting experience from Washington to the private sector, launching Special, a startup that aims to harness artificial intelligence to wring inefficiencies out of what it describes as America's $10 trillion Main Street services economy.

Nate Cavanaugh and Justin Fox spent much of 2025 at DOGE, where they spearheaded the Small Agencies team. Their government stint, under the high-profile effort led by SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, contributed to approximately $215 billion in estimated savings. The pair departed in September 2025.

In the spirit of DOGE, Figure Health plans to open source all of its billing claims, allowing the public to have full visibility into our Medicare and Medicaid...

- Nate Cavanaugh (@natecavanaugh) June 2, 2026

"Similar to the government, Main Street is massive, highly unoptimized, and provides essential services to Americans. One needs to look no further than childcare learning centers in Minnesota or hospice businesses in California to find immense waste at the state level from businesses that benefit from taxpayer dollars," the founders wrote in their announcement. "AI provides a generational opportunity to transform the efficiency of these businesses, root out waste, and deliver a great customer experience for American taxpayers. Through this process, we believe we can set a new standard for how these businesses should operate."

Special is reportedly building what it calls SpecialOS, an operating system that integrates frontier AI models with proprietary tools to automate manual tasks like billing, scheduling, and insurance processing. Instead of licensing the technology broadly, the company plans to vertically integrate by acquiring and operating businesses in targeted industries, allowing it to control deployment and outcomes.

The first product, Figure Health, focuses on senior care and has already secured its first acquisition in Texas, a provider serving more than 1,400 patients and employing hundreds of nurses, according to the company. The plan is to use AI efficiencies to raise nurse pay, easing labor shortages while improving care quality. Figure Health intends to open-source its Medicare and Medicaid billing claims.

Special has attracted notable backing in a financing round led by Andreessen Horowitz, with participation from DOGE alumni and allies including Steve Davis, as well as Coinbase's Brian Armstrong and Palantir's Shyam Sankar.

"The name Special pays tribute to those we believe are the greatest movers of society: the builders, the creators, the people who put it all on the line and just go for it. Special pledges allegiance not only to the United States, but to those in the arena - the ones courageous enough to move the world forward," Cavanaugh and Fox said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 16:40

Bamboozled Once Again...

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” ― Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World 

“Narcissists are unstable and go through repeated cycles of self-destruction, with other people usually paying the heft of the price. They are aware of what they are doing to others — but they do not care. Narcissists tend to be divisive, vindictive, confrontational, aggressive, hate-filled, raging, incoherent, judgment-impaired, and irrational.” – Sam Vaknin, Malignant Self-Love

Carl Sagan‘s words from 30 years ago, about the American public no longer caring about the truth and unwilling to acknowledge they have been bamboozled by the men controlling the levers of power over our civilization, has never been more prescient than during our current period of delusion, degradation and decay. As the crumbling American empire of debt and denial approaches its disastrous rendezvous with destiny, the populace remains gloriously and willfully ignorant of reality, mathematical certainty of collapse, and the treachery of those constituting the Deep State ruling class. We are truly living in a demon haunted world, run by child rapists and satanists.

It’s interesting Sagan had the foresight to make this brilliant observation in 1995, well before it became readily provable here in this century of the bamboozle, where the banality of evil, inflicted upon the masses by faceless apparatchiks, at the behest of soulless billionaire psychopaths in suits, has turned a once vibrant republic into a dying totalitarian hollowed out husk of a nation. I was bamboozled for about the first forty years of my life, but the weapons of mass destruction bamboozle in 2003 was the final straw. My eyes were opened to the utter corruption and lies of those hand selected by the real ruling class to lead our nation.

I’m convinced this century will see the end of the American Empire, likely to last less than 100 years (1946 – 2033?). As we approach the final blood letting that always marks the final years of a Fourth Turning, the malevolent, degenerate billionaires who currently control our world and pull the levers manipulating the willfully ignorant masses, are maximizing multiple bamboozles in an attempt to expand their wealth, optimize their power, and exploit the system to control the masses in an AI based technocratic gulag. We are nothing but expendable pieces in their demented game of Risk.

These Deep State fiends are the ruling social order doing everything in their power to avoid being swept away by the forces of this Fourth Turning, including mass murder (Covid jabs), global war, assassinations, planned starvation, imprisonment of truth tellers, and unrelenting propaganda designed to bamboozle the public into believing these totalitarian charlatans are actually doing these things (AI data centers, Iran War for Israel, kidnapping world leaders, waging a proxy war against Russia, threatening to invade multiple sovereign nations) for their own good. These bamboozles did not happen by happenstance.

As Edward Bernays explained in his 1928 book – Propaganda – there has always been a ruling elite who knew they could manipulate the minds of the masses in order to control the world. Back then they only had newspapers and radio. Bernays would be flabbergasted at the propaganda tools currently in the hands of the bamboozlers. Convincing a massively dumbed down populace of anything today is like taking candy from a baby.

“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society.  In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.”  – Propaganda

The bamboozles went into overdrive at the start of this century. Those who profit from chaos, war and debt were down in the dumps, as there were no major conflicts in the world, deficits and government spending were under control, the internet was going to make our lives easier, and the optimism of a new century was lifting the spirits of America. The Deep State bad actors needed to rectify the situation and the 9/11 bamboozle was just what the doctor ordered. This inside job, probably in cooperation with Israel, ignited two decades of war, tens of trillions in government debt creation, implementation of the surveillance state through the pre-written Patriot Act, 100% increase in inflation (using the fake CPI number),  and multiple bubbles/crashes used to lure the masses into consumer debt servitude to the Wall Street banking cabal.

Sagan feared the dumbing down of America through government indoctrination centers, known as public schools, would lead to a celebration of ignorance (have you seen the high school graduation videos floating around on-line?). With a populace unable or unwilling to think critically, the mouthpieces for the ruling elite in the media were easily able to manipulate the emotions, fears and greed of the average person and convince them to act in a way that would benefit the agenda of our overlord class. The slow decay of our culture turned into an avalanche of degeneracy and deceit.

Our world is supposedly driven by science and technology, but our schools matriculate mostly morons into society. The elitists who declare themselves scientific and medical experts (Fauci, Birx, Gates), technological geniuses (Musk, Karp, Altman, Theil) and social philanthropists (Soros, Adelson, Hoffman) are either mass murders, chaos coordinators, grifters, war mongers, and/or totalitarian minded pretentious traitors to mankind.

These people have far too much power and dominion over the narratives spun to sway the public. Truth is of no interest to these demons. The current combustible amalgam of public ignorance and elitist wealth and power is destined to ignite and create a conflagration which could burn our nation to the ground.

I certainly have a foreboding we have entered an age of darkness, where the “invisible government” (aka Deep State), who have relied on Huxley’s soft totalitarianism, where the masses have learned to love their servitude,  have begun to lose control of the narrative, as financial collapse looms, and are now turning to Orwell’s “boot stamping on your face forever” totalitarianism, with AI data (Surveillance) centers providing the backbone and enforcement mechanism for this authoritarian dystopian future.

“There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Winston— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever. ” ― George Orwell, 1984

The Covid bamboozle perfectly captures the willful ignorance of the vast majority of Americans, who refuse to accept the unequivocal fact they were bamboozled by Fauci, Gates, Trump, Biden, and hundreds of other so called bought off “experts”. As a key element of their de-population agenda, a fake pandemic with a billion dollar marketing campaign; 24/7 media fear propaganda; never ending lies about cases, deaths, and treatments; killing patients with remdesivir and vents while paying hospitals per death; suppressing ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine because they worked; and forcing a toxic gene therapy (not a vaccine) to be injected into billions of guinea pigs across the world. Despite real scientific proof the shots killed people and will continue to kill people into the future, most of the jabbed prefer to remain bamboozled because the truth of their acquiescence to authority is too painful to confront. Willfully ignorant they prefer to remain.

Sagan foresaw the gutting of American jobs, the rise of technology in the hands of a few, and a populace so bamboozled by those in control of the narrative, they were incapable of resistance and unable to discern truth from falsehood. The unpayable national debt exceeding $39 trillion and the unfunded social welfare liabilities exceeding $200 trillion are guaranteed to create a governmental financial collapse. Credit card debt, mortgage debt, auto loan debt and student loan debt are at all-time highs, with defaults accelerating. We are losing a war, AI is taking our jobs, inflation is soaring, and the average schmuck is buying stocks at all-time highs, when a crash is inevitable. It seems Americans love being bamboozled, until the consequences land on their heads like a ton of bricks. Sagan warned us.

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness… ― Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World

We are currently experiencing the biggest bamboozle of them all – Trump’s presidency. His Make America Great shtick convinced millions to vote for him, but a huge chunk voted for him because his 75 IQ cackling hyena whore of an opponent was an absolutely unacceptable alternative. Virtually everything he promised to do turned out to be a lie. His extreme narcissism was perfectly described by Sam Vaknin in the quote above. Trump stated how little he cares about the financial plight of average Americans when questioned recently.

“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation, I don’t think about anybody” – Donald Trump

Trump was going to end the Ukraine war in a week. He was going to keep us out of Middle East wars. He was going to reduce the deficit. DOGE was going to reduce government waste and save trillions. Gas was going to be $2.00 a gallon. Tariffs were going to restore manufacturing to America. He was going to release ALL the Epstein files. He was going to deport all the illegal invaders. He was going to prosecute all his enemies who stole the 2020 election and persecuted him and the J6ers. He was going to make future elections safe and fraud free. Everyone was going to get DOGE checks. Everyone was going to get tariff checks.

It is crystal clear to anyone with two brain cells Trump has failed to deliver on any of these campaign promises. The country was clearly bamboozled, but the MAGA NPCs reject all evidence of the bamboozle. They are captured and unwilling to recognize they were lied to and misled. It is too painful for those who saw Trump as some sort of savior to admit they have been bamboozled. The older I get, the less sure I am about what is happening in this world and who is responsible for the insanity. When every conspiracy theory comes true, I am now inclined to believe the worst scenario in every staged situation presented to the public by our overlords. Was Trump in on the bamboozle from the get go, or did something or someone “convince” him it was in his best interest to follow orders and set in motion the downfall of an empire?

In my estimation, the dystopian nightmare ignited by Trump at the start of 2026 is entirely related to the Epstein files and Israel blackmailing Trump, politicians in both parties, and billionaires who liked to rape children. Trump kidnapping foreign presidents; threatening to invade Greenland, Cuba and numerous other sovereign nations; turning on the America First patriots who got him elected (Massie, MTG, Carlson); embracing the traitorous Israel Firsters (Levin, Loomer, Huckabee); ramping up the Ukraine proxy war against Putin; and ultimately being Netanyahu’s bitch by insanely going to war with Iran under the false pretense of them being 2 weeks away from a nuclear bomb they would use on Israel, has set in motion a series of financial, political, and societal events which will have disastrous consequences for Americans and the world.

And still, the vast majority of Americans are either oblivious to the gathering storm, or openly cheering on their own downfall, because they refuse to believe they have been bamboozled once again. This tweet from X poster MW4Liberty succinctly and brutally captures this moment in time:

We live in an open air prison called America.
Debt slaves to central bankers who counterfeit our money.
Ruled by Baal worshiping pedos who traffic kids and souls.

Many of you out there?
Perfectly content in your recliner.
TV on. Phone in hand. Brain off. Worshiping a politician.

Mention any of this? Question the war?
You EXPLODE. You rush to defend your chains. That’s the conditioning talking.
The fear. The manufactured consent.
The illusion of choice they programmed into you.

Your “agency” is a f***ing joke.
They own your thoughts, your outrage, your vote. You’re a good little order taker.

History will not remember you well.

We have passed the point of no return. It is impossible to wake a vast majority of bamboozled boobs from their self-induced stupor. They will need to experience a banquet of consequences, on par with the Red Wedding scene from Game of Thrones, before reality will set in. There are a tireless, irate minority of men and women who still adhere to Samuel Adams‘ belief in prevailing over the forces of evil by setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men. I consider myself a member of this small club.

This irate minority who form the resistance to the Deep State and their malicious machinations are why those pulling the levers of our society are accelerating their diabolical plans. They are scared of us because they are actually the minority, pretending to be the majority. They have abruptly abandoned their climate hoax bamboozle because it does not jive with their new AI surveillance center bamboozle that requires more electricity and water than exists on the planet today.

At the outset of 2026 you barely heard a peep about data centers. Now, there is a frenzy of planned data (surveillance) centers because they are the key cog for pedo-billionaires to technologically control the global population through permanent surveillance, dominion over your financial assets, social credit scores based on your obedience to their commands, and ability to ruin your life with the push of a button. Believing their bamboozles has given you the illusion of freedom. But your controllers have decided the illusion has become to expensive to maintain, so these data (surveillance) centers are the brick wall at the back of the theater, described many years ago by Frank Zappa.

.“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.” ― Frank Zappa

Our choice is sedately accept our techno-imprisonment or fight using any means necessary. This is how Fourth Turnings roll. Good luck and Godspeed.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 16:20

Venezuela Oil Exports Hit 7-Year High

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Venezuela’s oil exports inched up from April to hit a fresh seven-year high in May as shipments to the United States and India continued to rise.

Venezuela exported an estimated 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in May, up by 0.7% compared to April’s 1.23 million bpd exports and a massive 61% jump compared to May 2025, according to ship-tracking and vessel-loading data reviewed by Reuters.

Venezuela has been steadily increasing its oil exports since the U.S. took control over its oil sales following the capture of Nicolas Maduro early this year.

The U.S. has eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and its state oil firm PDVSA, allowed Western firms to return to Venezuelan operations, and has encouraged American companies to sign production and export deals.

The U.S. and India have become major buyers of Venezuela’s oil after the sanctions were dropped and the top international oil traders Vitol and Trafigura were tasked to sell most of the crude to buyers.

As a result, the Venezuelan exports rose for a third consecutive month in May, with shipments to India accounting for the slight increase compared to April.

Exports in April jumped by 14% from March levels, with 66 cargoes leaving Venezuelan ports during the month, and volumes at their highest since 2019 when the first Trump Administration imposed sanctions on PDVSA and Venezuela’s oil exports.

In May, a total of 67 cargoes carrying Venezuelan crude were exported, according to the data Reuters has reviewed.

The United States remained the top buyer of Venezuela’s crude, taking in about 558,000 bpd in May, followed by India with 427,000 bpd and Europe with 169,000 bpd. Shipments to all three regions rose in May from April levels.

India’s top private refiner, Reliance Industries, has become one of the three biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude as it imported cargoes sold by Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura, according to the data.

India is importing the highest volumes of Venezuelan crude in six years as it turns to the South American producer amid the Middle East supply crisis.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 15:40

Shake Shack Gets Smoked After Cutting Guidance

Shake Shack plunged on Tuesday, hitting its lowest levels since November 2023, after the burger chain slashed second-quarter guidance only about a month after issuing it.

Baird analyst David Tarantino said the new outlook is viewed as "incrementally negative" for Shake Shack.

Tarantino noted that management had set an "unusually high bar" for 2Q comparable performance with its previous outlook, implying mid- to high-single-digit comps in May and June after -.6%.

He added that the updated guidance ranges may be attributed to new CFO Michelle Hook, who started May 11, and said "desire to set a more achievable bar going forward."

The burger chain, which has 445 stores in the U.S., now expects second-quarter revenue of $415 million to $420 million, down from its prior forecast of $424 million to $428 million.

Same-Shack sales growth is now expected to be 2.5% to 3%, down from the earlier 3% to 5% range. Shares sank 11% in the late-morning cash session, extending a nearly yearlong bear-market slide.

Here's a snapshot of the 2Q Forecast:

• Sees total revenue $415 million to $420 million, saw $424 million to $428 million, estimate $421.9 million

• Sees licensing revenue $13.5 million to $13.7 million

• Sees same-Shack sales 2.5% to 3%, saw 3% to 5%

• Sees restaurant level operating margin 22% to 23%, estimate 24.2%

• Sees Company-operating openings about 16, estimate 18

"These results are particularly encouraging in the face of a challenging macro environment and inclement weather," Shake Shack wrote in a corporate presentation.

The downgrade adds to concerns that higher beef prices and other input prices are compressing margins. There are also concerns that cash-strapped consumers are dialing back purchases on higher-priced menu items.

Related:

• Shake Shack Shares Crash Most On Record; McDonald's CEO Warns Of Faltering Consumer

Last month, Shake Shack reported a small multi-million-dollar loss in the first quarter despite a 14% revenue increase, reflecting the costs of investments to boost foot traffic.

Shares are now roughly 60% off their peak, a drawdown that has historically coincided with the stock's bottom. That said, downside pressure could still extend toward the $40 to $50 range, which has served as support during previous selloffs.

Shake Shack's guidance cut suggests the premium growth story is over for at least now, and the fast-casual restaurant chain may need a clearer turnaround plan to reignite Wall Street optimism. Perhaps that's what CFO Hook is about to engineer in the quarters ahead. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 15:20

Pentagon Restricts Press Office Access Over Privacy Concerns

Via American Greatness,

The Pentagon announced Monday that reporters will no longer have open access to the War Department’s public affairs office after the space was redesignated as a classified facility to accommodate staff handling sensitive material.

The announcement marks the latest effort by the Pete Hegseth-led War Department to tighten operational security and reshape longstanding media access practices inside the Pentagon.

Under the new policy, the Pentagon’s public affairs office has been converted into a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility, commonly known as a SCIF.

The office had previously allowed journalists to enter without escorts and directly approach military public affairs officials with questions.

Pentagon spokesman Joel Valdez said the change was necessary because speechwriters working in the office routinely handle classified material and require access to secure government systems.

“This is the most transparent War Department in history. No amount of spin from the Fake News media will change that,” Valdez wrote in a post on X.

This is the most transparent War Department in history. No amount of spin from the Fake News media will change that.

The Pentagon Press Office has been redesignated as a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility due to speechwriters from the Office of the Secretary of War… https://t.co/tlWb1XIeOk

— Acting Press Sec Joel Valdez (@JoelValdezDOW) June 1, 2026

“These speechwriters routinely handle classified material and require SIPRNet access. As a result, journalists will no longer be permitted to enter the office space. There’s nothing controversial about that,” he added.

Valdez said reporters will still have access to the Pentagon press secretary and the Assistant to the Secretary of War for Public Affairs through scheduled appointments.

The policy change comes months after War Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed additional restrictions on media operations at the Pentagon.

Last October, the department introduced new rules allowing officials to revoke press credentials from reporters designated as security risks.

The New York Times subsequently filed two lawsuits against the Pentagon, arguing the restrictions violate First Amendment protections. Both cases remain pending in court.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 15:05

HSBC Warns Of Commodity "Super-Squeeze" As Goldman Hikes Copper Forecasts

Copper is inching closer to its mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, trading around $13,832 on Tuesday morning, as Goldman raised its year-end price targets and HSBC warned that commodities face a "super-squeeze" with the Hormuz maritime chokepoint still largely shuttered in early June.

Let's begin with HSBC analysts, who wrote in a note to clients that "metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand."

They warned that commodities were facing a "super-squeeze" with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

HSBC's note comes after Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham told clients Monday that the core issue with copper markets right now is supply:

• Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.

At the same time, she said stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-US market:

• Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.

The combination of soft mine supply, US stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:

• We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).

She mapped out three price scenarios for copper:

1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend.

2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed.

3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027.

Mapped out here:

Professional subscribers can read the full copper note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

With Hormuz still all but shuttered and only a 22% chance that the critical waterway reopens by the end of June, according to a Polymarket bet, it would take many months, if not quarters, to normalize shipping flows. This indicates that the commodities cycle will likely remain bullish into early summer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/02/2026 - 14:45