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US Q4 GDP Growth Cut In Half To Just 0.7% After Revision

While it's useless most of the time, and especially so when the US has just entered war throwing a wrench into the entire economic calculus, moments ago the BEA reported that Q4 GDP in the US was slashed by half after the 1st revision of data: instead of 1.4%, the US grew just 0.7% in the last quarter of 2025 (0.660% to be precise), and far below estimates of a 1.4% print. It was also the lowest GDP print since Q1 2025. 

According to the BEA, GDP was revised down 0.7% point from the advance estimate, or exactly half, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Specifically, the revisions were as follows

• Personal consumption was slashed from 1.58% to 1.33% of the bottom line 0.7% print after the revision. 
• Fixed Investment was also revised lower from 0.4% to just 0.29%.
• The Change in private inventories was the only upward revision, from 0.21% to 0.28%
• Net trade (exports less imports) was also revised lower, from 0.08% to -0.21%.
• Government's contribution to GDP - which in Q4 was deeply negative due to the longest govt shutdown on record - was also lower than initially expected, subtracting -1.03% from the bottom line print, as opposed to -0.90%.

Final sales to private domestic purchases, which excludes government, trade and inventories, grew at ​a 1.9% pace. ​This measure ⁠of domestic demand, closely watched by policymakers, was initially estimated to have ​increased at a 2.4% rate. Domestic ​demand grew ⁠at a 2.9% pace in the July-September quarter.

While a pick up in growth is expected this ⁠quarter, ​the U.S.-Israeli war with ​Iran, which has driven up oil prices, is clouding the economic ​outlook, with many expecting a GDP hit should the oil price surge persist.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 09:19

JPMorgan Sued Over Alleged Role In $328M Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

JPMorgan is facing a lawsuit for allegedly enabling a $328 million crypto Ponzi scheme run by now-defunct Goliath Ventures.

Investors on Tuesday filed a proposed class action in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, accusing JPMorgan of ignoring suspicious transactions and allowing Goliath to use its infrastructure to collect investor funds.

A separate federal criminal complaint against Goliath CEO Christopher Delgado, however, says investor funds also flowed through a Bank of America account and directly into Coinbase wallets.

Together, the filings sketch a broader picture of how money moved through the alleged scheme while testing how far a major bank can be held civilly liable for servicing a crypto-related business later accused of fraud.

The California lawsuit states that despite JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s repeated criticism of Bitcoin, the bank allegedly failed to prevent crypto scammers from carrying out fraudulent wire transactions.

“Chase, by virtue of its Know Your Customer actually knew that Goliath was acting as a ‘private equity’ cryptocurrency pool operator investing money for investors, without being licensed at all to sell these investments,” the complaint reads.

Complaint focuses on JPMorgan account flows

The US Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Florida announced the arrest of Goliath CEO Christopher Delgado on Feb. 24. He faces a maximum penalty of 30 years in federal prison if convicted on all counts.

Prosecutors said Goliath Ventures, formerly known as Gen-Z Venture Firm, operated the scheme from January 2023 through January 2026.

The civil complaint says Chase was believed to be Goliath’s sole banking institution for a period from January 2023 to May or June 2025. But the separate federal criminal complaint says Goliath also held a Bank of America business account. “Goliath obtained at least $328 million from what are believed to be over 2,000 investors,” the complaint states.

Source: Law.com

The complaint also describes money moved from a JPMorgan account to Goliath wallets held at Coinbase.

The investor suit alleges that about $253 million was deposited into JPMorgan account 0305 between January 2023 and June 2025, with roughly $123 million later transferred to Goliath wallets at Coinbase.

The separate federal complaint paints a broader picture, saying investor funds were primarily deposited into the JPMorgan 0305 account, the Bank of America 9136 account or sent directly to Goliath wallets at Coinbase. Prosecutors said about $75 million went into the BOA account and about $62 million was received directly by Coinbase wallets.

“Delgado was a co-signatory on the BOA 9136 account in the name of Goliath,” the criminal complaint states, adding that Goliath directors told at least one investor that Delgado controlled the account.

Source: US Department of Justice

The government also said Delgado was the sole signatory on Goliath’s Coinbase wallets.

More complaints are coming as the team is still identifying victims

The class action suit was filed by a team of attorneys from Shaw Lewenz, Sonn Law Group and Schwartzbaum. The first named plaintiff, Robby Alan Steele, said he invested a total of $650,000, including retirement funds.

Shaw Lewenz’ Jordan Shaw said there would be more complaints to come, as the team is still identifying individuals and entities they believe to be complicit.

“We are being purposeful and precise in who we file against, to be complementary to the receiver and his efforts," Shaw said, adding: “The goal is not to duplicate efforts, but instead to maximize recovery.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 09:05

Savings Rate Highest In 6 Months As Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Rises Near 2-Year High

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - rose o.4% MoM in January (in line with expectations) with YoY rising by 3.1% (as expected), slightly higher than the 3.0% in December...

Source Bloomberg

That is the highest YoY Core PCE since March 2024.

The headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) driving prices up 2.8% YoY (down from December's +2.9% YoY)...

Source Bloomberg

Services continue to dominate the prices gains with Goods costs dropping very marginally in January...

Source Bloomberg

For those worried about the impact of crude oil's recent surge (since the start of the Iran war), it appears - somehow - that PCE's Energy component has already front-run a lot of the move...

Higher prices were met with higher incomes and higher spending (rising in line with one another for a change)...

On the income side, wage growth accelerated for both private and govt workers:

• Private worker salaries up 5.0% YoY in January, up from 4.8% in December

• Govt worker salaries up 2.3% YoY in Jan, up from 2.1% in Dec

Spending growth continues to outpace income growth

But, thanks to yet more revisions, the savings rate ticked up to its highest since July...

With rate-cut expectations already plummeting, this latest data will do nothing to support a dovish take going forward (unless oil crashes the global economy).

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 08:43

Futures At Session Highs After Oil Drops Below $100 On India Hormuz Transit Hopes

US stock futures rebounded from their overnight selloff, and were trading near session highs after three days of losses on Wall Street as Brent slipped below $100 a barrel and investors waited to see if the war in the Middle East would escalate further. The catalyst for the bounce was news that India asked Iran to allow its tanker armada through Hormuz, which would lead to a substantial easing of the global oil shipping blockade. And while it remains to be seen if this will pave the way for other flows through the strait, for now futures have rebounded with Emini S&P futures up 0.3% at 6700 and Nasdaq futures rising 0.4%; in premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are flattish except for the -1.4% decline in META after it delayed the rollout of its new frontier model “Avocado.” Bond yields reverse an earlier rise and were flat higher this morning while the USD is 0.4% higher, with DXY now reaching above 100. Oil prices drop overnight with WTI trading around $93 after India stated it has an oil tanker moving out of the Strait of Hormuz. Other commodities are mixed: Aluminum added 1.7%, Silver fell -1.0% this morning. US economic data slate includes January personal income/spending, PCE price index, durable goods orders, 4Q second GDP estimate (8:30am), March University of Michigan sentiment, January JOLTS job openings (10am).

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven are mixed (Tesla +0.9%, Alphabet +0.9%, Nvidia +0.8%, Apple +0.3%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.1%, Meta Platforms (META) -1%)

• Adobe (ADBE) falls 7% as Chief Executive Officer Shantanu Narayen will resign from his position amid deep skepticism about the company’s ability to thrive in the AI era.
• EverCommerce Inc. (EVCM) drops 21% after the management software firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• KinderCare Learning Cos. (KLC) declines 31% after the childhood education company provided a disappointing 2026 earnings outlook.
• Klarna Group (KLAR) rises 7% after the fintech’s chairman bought 3.47 million shares worth about $50 million between March 3 and March 11.
• ServiceTitan (TTAN) falls 5% as the software company reported fourth quarter results. Bloomberg Intelligence says the results ran up against high expectations.
• Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) drops 14% after the organic kids snacks maker forecast slowing sales growth in 2026 in its first earnings report as a public company.
• PagerDuty (PD) falls 12% after the software company gave a revenue forecast that’s weaker than expected.
• PAR Technology (PAR) falls 22% after pricing a private offering of $250 million aggregate principal amount of 4% convertible senior notes.
• SentinelOne (S) falls 4% after the software company’s outlook was seen as unimpressive.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) drops 7% after the cosmetics retailer offered guidance for the current year that was toward the low end of Wall Street’s expectations.

In corporate news, Adobe shares fell more than 8% in premarket trading after the maker of software for creative professionals delivered a lackluster forecast and announced its long-standing CEO Shantanu Narayen would step down amid deep skepticism about the company’s ability to thrive in the AI era. And Apple is lowering the fees it collects from app developers in China, a major concession in a hugely lucrative market where

Nearly two weeks into the war in the Middle East, investors are struggling to find havens as bonds fall alongside equities and hopes for further policy easing fade while stagflation risks mount. There were a few new articles on Iran, pointing to the oscillating narrative between US off-ramp and the closure of the Strait. A global equity index was set for a second week of losses, having fallen from record highs hit before the conflict. A key sentiment indicator compiled by Bank of America Corp. showed the recent selloff hasn’t yet created conditions for investors to buy beaten-down securities.

“Markets have sailed through the last quarter with an optimistic bias, sticking to a buy-the-dip mantra, but this spike in volatility is likely to put an end to this,” said Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management. He added that even if the conflict doesn’t last much longer, “it may already have a palpable negative impact on economic growth and inflation.”

Oil prices are now more than 60% higher than at the start of 2026, shrugging off coordinated moves by wealthy nations to release crude reserves and temporary US waivers allowing purchases of Russian oil. Crude could exceed the 2008 peak close to $150 a barrel, should flows via the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned.

As energy price pressures build, the risk of an inflation shock is trumping the traditional appeal of bonds as a haven. Treasuries volatility jumped to a nine-month high, yields are marching higher across the curve and markets are no longer fully pricing in even one quarter-point rate cut by the Fed this year. Higher yields are exacerbating already elevated concern about stress in the private credit market, hurting risk appetite generally and the banking sector specifically.  

Investors will turn their attention to US inflation figures due later Friday. The Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge is expected to show inflation remaining stubbornly high. Meanwhile a preliminary March survey will show how American consumers view the impact of the Iran conflict, given the rise in gasoline prices.

“Inflation is actually ramping up as a big risk,” Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “Duration of the conflict is key. We have been raising US dollar weighting a little bit just to increase our hedge.

European stocks are off well their worst levels, with the Stoxx 600 almost back to flat for the day having lost over 1% at the lows. A pullback in energy prices helped with European natural gas futures falling more than 1%.  BE Semiconductor is the day’s most significant outperformer, after reports about takeover interest. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• BE Semiconductor shares surge as much as 14% in early Friday trading after Reuters reported that the semiconductor equipment firm has been fielding takeover interest
• Zalando rises as much as 6.4%, building on yesterday’s result-driven gains and trading at a five-week high, after being upgraded at Bernstein. Analysts believe the risk-reward profile is more balanced
• Worldline shares gain as much as 46% after the payments company launched a capital increase. Heavily targeted by short sellers, the stock gets a boost when shareholders participating in the rights offering recall the shares back
• Siltronic shares rise as much as 3.3%, building on Thursday’s gains after the silicon wafer manufacturer reported results. Analysts at Oddo BHF raised their price target on the stock this morning as well
• Medacta climbs as much as 6.5%, the most since the end of July, after the Swiss medical-implant firm reported its full-year results and raised guidance
• Webuild drops as much as 6% after BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform, citing the Italian construction company’s outlook for flat sales in 2026 along with slower growth in the Middle East
• ID Logistics shares drop as much as 9.7%, extending yesterday’s result-driven losses and slumping to a fresh 11-month low. TP ICAP trimmed its target price on the stock this morning

Hours after Deutsche Bank flagged a €26 billion ($30 billion) exposure to private credit on Thursday, the head of structured credit at Dan Loeb’s Third Point said the hedge fund is readying to scoop up credit assets others are selling to raise liquidity. “This is probably one of the most exciting times to be a credit investor,” Shalini Sriram said on the latest Bloomberg Intelligence Credit Edge podcast. 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell on Friday, notching a second-consecutive weekly decline as the Iran war stokes concerns of elevated oil prices and the impact on inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.4% Friday, with chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix the biggest drags. India and South Korea led a broad regional decline, while Indonesia’s benchmark entered a bear market.
Investors remain concerned about tight energy supply, with oil trading above $100 a barrel. A prolonged war could hobble manufacturing and drive up costs, and faster inflation may drive more hawkish monetary policy.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.4% to a year-to-date high. The pound is among the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback after the UK economy unexpectedly failed to grow in January. The yen is flat having earlier dropped to its lowest since July 2024.

In rates, Treasury futures ticked higher as oil prices dipped in early US session after India said it had an oil tanker that has started moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Yields flipped to slightly richer on the day across front and belly of the curve, ahead of a day packed with US data including GDP, PCE and JOLTS job openings. US yields richer by around 1.5bp across front and belly of the curve, slightly cheaper across the long-end, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.5bp and 2bp on the day, unwinding a small portion of Thursday’s aggressive flattening move as Fed rate cut premium eroded from the front-end of the curve. European government bonds also recovered as traders trimmed bets on tightening by the European Central Bank and Bank of England this year. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs are flat. US 10-year yields rise 1 bp to 4.27%.

In commodities, WTI futures lower on the day by around 2%, dropping following the India headline, after rising as high as $98 a barrel on Friday after a 9.7% jump on Thursday as defiant tones from Trump and Iran’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei drained optimism about any swift resolution to the conflict. Betting on Polymarket puts the chance of a ceasefire by the end of the month at just 21%. Spot gold edges higher while silver drops over 1%. Bitcoin climbs 3%.

Today's US economic data slate includes January personal income/spending, PCE price index, durable goods orders, 4Q second GDP estimate (8:30am), March University of Michigan sentiment, January JOLTS job openings (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%,
• DAX -0.5%,
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield unch basis point at 4.26%
• VIX -0.3 points at 27.02
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1213.01,
• euro -0.5% at $1.1456
• WTI crude little changed at $95.76/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Arab diplomats trying to find a diplomatic path out of the war now being waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran say Tehran, emboldened by its ability to rattle the global economy by choking oil shipments, has laid out steep preconditions for any return to talks. WSJ 
• Iran has started laying mines in Hormuz and is utilizing thousands of small boats in the country’s navy to do so. NYT 
• Israeli officials now assess that Iran’s ruling regime is unlikely to fall in the immediate future, as Tehran’s battered rulers remain in control and conditions on the ground aren’t yet ripe for a popular uprising, people familiar with the matter said. WSJ 
• Donald Trump warned Iran to “watch what happens” today in a social media post, claiming the US is “totally destroying” Iran militarily and economically. Benjamin Netanyahu said regime change can’t happen without an internal uprising. BBG 
• The US expanded a short-term waiver allowing buyers to purchase Russian oil already in transit, potentially freeing up about 19 million barrels of crude and refined products in Asian waters. BBG 
• The framework for US President Donald Trump’s summit with China’s Xi Jinping is set to be mapped out this weekend as negotiators meet to discuss thorny issues such as tariffs, fentanyl and Taiwan. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will convene in Paris on Sunday and Monday to map out deliverables for the leaders’ summit slated for March 31 to April 2 in Beijing. BBG 
• US Secretary of State Rubio will join US President Trump during his trip to China later this month.
• TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, is assembling computing power with high-end Nvidia chips outside China to fuel its ambition of becoming a global artificial-intelligence leader. WSJ 
• India is delaying signing a deal with the US for several months after new investigations, Reuters reported. New Delhi had originally aimed to finalize an interim deal this month. BBG 
• Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is stepping down after 18 years amid concerns about the company’s ability to compete in AI. Shares are down -8% in the premkt. BBG 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region cautious amid headwinds from the recent double-digit surge in oil prices after Iran's new Supreme Leader dug in and called for a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as warned that other fronts will be opened if the war persists, while the US also initiated 60 Section 301 investigations related to failures to take action on forced labour. ASX 200 traded indecisively as strength in financials and energy offset the losses in mining and materials. Nikkei 225 underperformed as oil and inflationary-related pressures weighed on the large exporting industries, including tech and autos, with Honda among the worst hit after it cancelled three planned EV launches in North America and revised its FY25/26 outlook to a loss of as much as JPY 690bln from the previous guidance of JPY 300bln profit. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre in rangebound trade with a lack of conviction heading into talks between US Treasury Secretary Bessent, USTR Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris beginning on Sunday.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said prepared to take all necessary steps on FX and are in closer contact with US authorities on FX.
• South Korea could reportedly see KRW 20tln extra budget on chip boom, according to Chosun.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) continue to trade on the softer side as energy prices remain at elevated levels. Once again, the IBEX 35 (-0.2%) is the worst performer as Banks continue to weigh on the index. The FTSE 100 (-0.1%) is also under modest pressure, after the UK showed no growth M/M in January. European sectors are mixed, with Energy (+0.8%) outperforming as Brent holds above USD 100/bbl. Basic Resources (-1.2%) lags as the stronger dollar weighs on metals prices. Consumer Products and Services (-1.4%) and Banks (-0.7%) are also underperforming as higher inflation expectations and poor growth prospects weigh on the sectors. For the semiconductor space, BE Semiconductor has reportedly been fielding takeover interests and has refused to respond to the rumour.

Top European News

• UK GDP YoY (Jan) Y/Y 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 1.0%).
• UK GDP MoM (Jan) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.3%).
• UK Balance of Trade (Jan) 3.922B vs. Exp. -6.2B (Prev. -4.340B).
• UK Goods Trade Balance (Jan) -14.45B vs. Exp. -22.2B (Prev. -22.72B, Low. -23.3B, High. -21.2B).

FX

• DXY is stronger this morning and currently just off best levels, within a 99.58-100.29 range; upside today lacked a fresh fundamental driver, but came alongside the strength in crude prices, where Brent once again topped USD 100/bbl. Interestingly, the USD-Brent correlation is currently 0.91. On the oil situation, the US issued a new Russia-related general licence permitting the sale of Russian crude oil – this only applies to oil in transit. A waiver which did little to cull the upside in the oil complex, given this does not nearly replace the lost supply from the Gulf. ING writes that “we cannot see investors wanting to fight this dollar rally, given there is so little certainty as to when this crisis will end”. Focus now turns to Core PCE Price Index (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan), Personal Spending (Jan), JOLTS (Jan), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Mar) and Atlanta Fed GDP.
• EUR has now sunk below the 1.1500 mark, and made a trough at 1.1433 – levels not seen since early August, where the single currency made a low at 1.1391 (1 Aug). Ultimately, the region's status as a net-importer of oil continues to weigh on the single currency. In the meantime, focus will be on any hints of government intervention to ease the impact of higher energy costs, before focus then turns to the ECB next week, where the Bank is likely to raise concerns about the Middle East situation, with an outside chance that it signals possible policy adjustments.
• GBP also remains pressured alongside peers. Sterling opened lower, given the USD strength, but then reacted negatively to the region’s GDP metrics, which showed that the UK stagnated in January, even before the Iran war started. Cable fell from 1.3315 to 1.3306 within a couple of minutes, before trundling lower as the USD strength picked up. The impact on the BoE following this data will likely not be impactful on policy in the near term, given the Iran war.
• JPY remains the only G10 flat vs USD. Potentially a function of traders seeing the possibility of near-term intervention/rate checks as USD/JPY sits firmly in the intervention zone, beyond 158.00. Overnight, Finance Minister Katayama said that they are in closer contact with US authorities on FX, and separately commented that they are prepared to take all necessary steps on FX. As a reminder, the NY Fed conducted a rate check on USD/JPY back in January. As mentioned previously, intervention seems unlikely given a) it would prove to be ineffective given the current geopolitical environment, b) low volume short positions on the JPY, c) the move is fundamentally driven by higher energy prices, and d) the recent lack of verbal intervention suggests potentially a higher bar for USD/JPY to rise. Nonetheless, markets will be cognizant of any jawboning heading into the BoJ meeting and wage negotiations next week.

Trade/Tariffs

• USTR confirms to start 60 Section 301 investigations related to failures to take action on forced labour.
• China's MOFCOM said US 301 tariffs violate WTO rules, urges the US to correct wrong practices and return to dialogue. China is analysing and assessing the situation. Will take necessary measures to safeguard legitimate rights and interests.
• China's MOFCOM is to impose tariffs of up to 30.1% on imports of rubber from Japan and Canada, effective March 14th.
• US ambassador to India said they're moving to a critical stage of finalising critical minerals agreement, adds expect countries we have made deals with to honor those deals.

Fixed Income

• A choppy start to the day with benchmarks in narrower ranges than usual, though still posting a c. 50 ticks band for Bunds, for instance. Action this morning has largely been a function of energy and, by extension, the general risk tone. A grind higher in the first few hours in energy benchmarks to a USD 98.09/bbl peak for WTI sparked a bout of fixed downside, equity pressure and USD strength.
• However, the move in fixed income has pared with benchmarks marginally firmer as energy wanes from best. The main headline update amidst this was Axios reporting that US President Trump told the G7 on Wednesday that Iran was close to surrender; however, commentary from the new Supreme Leader on Thursday and Iran announcing a fresh wave of attacks today somewhat disputes that assessment.
• Specifically, USTs in a 111-12 to 111-20 band, currently firmer by a tick or two in that. Nonetheless, the benchmark is set to end the week lower by around a full point.
• For Bunds, they are yet to make a lasting move into the green, despite hitting a 126.18 peak with gains of two ticks briefly. Drivers much the same as above. Furthermore, the benchmark is also set to end the week lower by around a full point.
• Finally, Gilts opened lower by just under 20 ticks today before slipping to a 88.49 low and then rebounding to near-enough unchanged. Downside a function of the benchmark catching up to post-close action and the morning's initial energy move. However, this was somewhat offset by the morning's data showing the UK started the year with no growth. A series that may have otherwise cemented a March cut by the BoE. However, the recent Middle East related energy disruption and associated moves mean a near-term cut is entirely off the table, though the MPC will likely remain divided next week in another split decision.
• Japan sold JPY 300bln in 10yr Climate Transition Bonds b/c 3.42 (Prev. 3.56).

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures are off their best and worst levels at the time of writing, with traders gearing up for another week of geopolitical risks as the war shows no signs of abating. It was reported that the US issued a second short-term waiver allowing buyers to receive Russian oil already at sea, expanding a previous India-only authorisation without materially benefiting the Russian government. Modest downticks were seen in the complex following an Axios report that US President Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting Wednesday that Iran is "about to surrender," according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call, although the report caveats that 24 hours later after that call, Iran's new supreme leader issued his first public statement vowing to keep fighting. WTI resides in a USD 94.52-98.09/bbl range and Brent in a 99.51-102.75/bbl range. Nat Gas prices are flat at the time of writing, but remain above EUR 50/MWh amid the ongoing energy woes emerging from the Iranian crisis.
• Spot gold rose above USD 5,100/oz overnight and hovers on either side of the figure in recent trade, but still remains on track for a second weekly decline, as the Middle East conflict keeps oil near USD 100/bbl and in turn pushes up the USD (DXY north of 100) amid inflationary woes. Spot gold resides in a USD 5,061.32-5,128.47/oz. Spot silver resides closer to weekly lows after finding resistance at USD 90/oz on Tuesday.
• In terms of base metals, 3M LME copper is on a softer footing amid the firmer USD and with sentiment also dampened as the US opened a Section 301 probe into forced-labour practices across 60 economies, including the EU, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, India, Taiwan and the UK. Iron is set for its biggest weekly gain in more than a year after China state-backed buyers expanded restrictions on BHP Group (BHP AT) products.
• India asks Iran to allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the WSJ; India is in active talks to allow 23 tankers through the Strait, with first crossing expected this weekend
• Kremlin envoy Dmitriev said US sanctions waiver affects around 100mln barrels of Russian oil.
• US has issued a new Russia-related general license permitting the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12, according to the Treasury website. US license permits sale of such Russian crude oil and petroleum products until 12:01 AM EDT on April 11th.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified that new general licence applies only to Russian oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.
• EU Commission said gas storage filling levels in the EU remain stable and oil stocks are at a high level, via statement; gas storage should not be refilled at all costs.
• Japan's Defence Minister Koizumi said it would be possible to provide escort for Japanese ships through Hormuz, however PM Takaichi clarified that no decisions have been made.
• Saudi Aramco offers to sell 2 mln barrels of Arab Light crude for March loading at Yanbu port.
• Australia's energy minister announces lowering minimum stock obligations for diesel and fuel. said: To address fuel supply chain disruption by reducing up to 20% of the baseline minimum stockholding obligation for petrol and diesel, which would allow the release of up to 762mln litre of petrol and diesel from Australia's domestic reserves.
• Venezuela and Repsol (REP SM) signed strategic agreements, while Venezuela's interim president Rodriguez said that the deal can make Venezuela a gas exporter.
• Rio Tinto (RIO AT) suspends all mining operations at its Kennecott copper facility following a fatal incident.
• Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to average over USD 100/bbl in March and USD 85/bbl in April, while it sees Brent crude gradually easing back to the low USD 70s late in the year.

Geopolitics

• NATO intercepts an Iranian missile targeting Turkey, the 3rd occasion since the Middle East conflict began. Missile was launched from Iran and destroyed by defences in the eastern Mediterranean.
• US President Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting Wednesday that Iran is "about to surrender," according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call, Axios reported.
• US has burned through ‘years’ of munitions since the Iran war began, while the rapid depletion of stockpile including Tomahawk missiles raises pressure on US President Trump regarding the cost of the war, according to FT.
• US officials say Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz as of today, according to NYT.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said we know that Iran has not mined the Strait of Hormuz, noted a lower oil price regime over the medium-term after the conflict.
• US weapons package for Taiwan could be approved after US President Trump's China trip, according to sources.
• Israeli Security Official said that Iran has around 150 missile launch platforms, these will continue to be targeted.
• Israeli army said it has begun a wave of air strikes targeting government infrastructure in Iran’s capital, Tehran, Al Jazeera reported.
• Israeli air strikes are underway in Iran and explosions were reported in Tehran.
• Israel's army identified missiles launched from Iran and defence systems were activated to counter threat.
• Israel conducts a series of raids on southern suburbs of Beirut.
• Israeli army issues orders to evacuate areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Iran announces a fresh wave of attacks on US bases and Israel, ISNA reported.
• "Iranian state television reported a large explosion in a Tehran square where demonstrations are happening", via AP's Gambrell.
• Iranian missile successfully hits target after Israeli interceptors failed to stop it.
• Iran claims responsibility for shooting down US refueling plane, said US refueling plane was downed with all crew killed in Western Iraq, according to Tasnim.

US event calendar

• US economic data slate includes January personal income/spending, PCE price index, durable goods orders, 4Q second GDP estimate (8:30am), March University of Michigan sentiment, January JOLTS job openings (10am)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Without putting too much of a downer on things, today marks the first occurrence of successive monthly Friday the 13ths since 2015. Thanks to a client with an impressive archive, I was sent the EMR from the last time I commented on this—11 years ago today. I wouldn't have known otherwise.  The next back-to-back Friday the 13th doesn’t arrive until March 2037. I have mixed feelings about whether I’d like to still be writing about that particular statistic when it comes around again, especially as the EMR will be exactly 30 years old at that point.
Perhaps back-to-back Friday the 13ths will reverse the usual superstition and bring a bit of luck instead—something markets could certainly use when conditions are becoming ever more fraught. The challenge for investors is that a sharp turnaround could materialise at almost any point if both sides de escalated. There are obvious incentives to do so. However, there are currently no signs that such an outcome is imminent. Our house view, articulated by Helen Belopolsky in my team, is that events are likely to get worse before they get better, although de escalation remains plausible at some point over the next few weeks. 

Over the past 24 hours, we’ve seen another round of escalatory rhetoric from both sides, which pushed Brent crude (+9.22%) back up to $100.46/bbl, the first time it’s closed above $100/bbl since August 2022. We’re still hovering around those levels overnight, with Brent at $100.11/bbl this morning. While it remains feasible that the most intense phase of the conflict ends relatively quickly, concerns are clearly growing that this will turn into a much more prolonged confrontation. Indeed, that uncertainty reignited inflation fears yesterday, leading to the most hawkish central bank pricing of the year so far for both the ECB and the Fed. Sovereign bonds sold off again, with 10yr bund yields (+2.5bps) reaching a post 2023 high of 2.95%. And in turn, those geopolitical concerns and expectations of a more hawkish policy response triggered a fresh equity sell off, with the S&P 500 (-1.52%) falling to its lowest level since November. By contrast, the dollar index (+0.51%) reached its highest level since November.

In terms of the latest, the harsh rhetoric continued yesterday, alongside the first public comments from Iran’s new Supreme Leader Khamenei. He said the Strait of Hormuz should remain shut and warned that, if the war persisted, other fronts would be opened. Meanwhile, President Trump posted that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons was “of far greater interest and importance to me” than oil prices. And in the last couple of hours, Trump has posted that we should “watch what happens” to Iran today. There were also conflicting reports about mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with UK Defence Secretary Healey cautioning that “the Iranians may have started mining in the strait”. However, US Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed “we know that they have not mined the straits” as some tankers are coming through. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Wright suggested that the US could start escorting tankers through the strait by the end of March.
With no sign of an imminent resolution, oil prices posted significant gains yesterday. Brent crude (+9.22%) rose to $100.46/bbl, while WTI (+9.72%) climbed to $95.73/bbl. And even though this is still well below Brent’s intraday high of $119.50/bbl right after the weekend, the longer prices hover around $100/bbl, the greater the risk of serious inflationary consequences. That’s been reflected in expectations, as the 1yr Euro inflation swap jumped +19bps yesterday to 2.96%, its highest level since late 2023. Moreover, investors are also pricing a longer period of elevated energy prices, with the 12-month Brent future (+2.67%) rising to $76.15/bbl, with a further move up to $76.68/bbl overnight.

Those oil price gains came even as the US has looked to introduce additional measures in response to the energy shock. For instance, Bloomberg reported that the administration plans to waive the Jones Act, which requires shipping between US ports to be done by American ships. So that could reduce costs for shipping fuel within the US and helped a modest decline in US crack spreads yesterday (the difference between crude oil and wholesale petroleum). Then in the evening, the US Treasury announced an expansion of temporary sanction waivers for purchases of Russian oil.

Beyond commodities, sovereign bonds saw another broad sell off as inflation fears fed into renewed rate hike speculation. The move was especially clear in Europe, where 10yr bund yields (+2.5bps) rose to 2.95%, their highest level since October 2023. France’s 10yr OAT yield (+5.6bps) climbed to 3.62%, its highest since the peak of the Euro crisis in 2011. UK gilts fared even worse, as market pricing for a BoE rate hike this year hit an 82% probability by the close, with the 10yr gilt yield (+8.7bps) closing at a six-month high of 4.77%.

US Treasuries followed a similar pattern, with particularly pronounced increases at the front-end as doubts grew about the Fed’s ability to cut rates this year, even under a new Chair. So there are now just 20bps of cuts priced in by the December meeting, meaning that—for the first time this year—a 2026 rate cut is no longer fully priced. Instead, investors have to look as far out as the June 2027 meeting for the first fully priced cut. That backdrop drove another sell off, with the 2yr Treasury yield (+9.0bps) rising to a six-month high of 3.74%, while the 10yr yield (+3.1bps) moved up to 4.26%.

That combination of higher oil prices and more hawkish central bank pricing weighed further on risk assets, with equities declining on both sides of the Atlantic. The S&P 500 (-1.52%) fell for a third consecutive session, reaching its lowest level since November. Yet even so, the index is still only -4.4% off its record high and -3% below its pre strike level. So despite the volatility, it’s still not halfway to technical correction territory, let alone a bear market. Energy stocks (+0.98%) outperformed, with that segment of the S&P 500 reaching a record high. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.61%) fell for a second day, though it remains above Monday’s levels and is still -5.5% below its prestrike record high, again some distance from correction territory.

That said, the equity performance was increasingly challenging yesterday, with 391 decliners in the S&P 500, the most since January. The Mag-7 (-1.86%) snapped a three-day winning streak, moving to within half a percent of technical correction territory, while the small cap Russell 2000 (-2.12%) closed at a 2026 low. In addition to the oil spike, market sentiment was weighed on by renewed concerns over private credit, the S&P 500 Banks (-2.16%) underperforming the broader index, whilst US IG credit spreads widened +4bps to 90bps, their highest level since May.

Overnight in Asia, that slide has continued for the most part, with sizeable losses for the Nikkei (-1.37%) and the KOSPI (-1.76%). Chinese equities are faring relatively better however, with the CSI 300 (+0.36%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.02%) posting modest gains. In the meantime, the Japanese yen has weakened further in the last 24 hours, closing at 159.35 per US Dollar yesterday, the weakest since July 2024. Indeed, it’s getting closer to levels where the authorities have previously intervened to support the currency. Looking forward however, equity futures in the US and Europe are a bit more positive this morning as oil prices have been relatively stable in the last 24 hours. So those on the S&P 500 are up +0.17%, and those on the DAX are up +0.13%.

Looking ahead, today’s data releases include UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for January. In the US, we’ll also see January PCE inflation, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and preliminary durable goods orders for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Wunsch.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 08:34

US Tariff Investigations Put China, EU And Other Major Trading Partners In New Crosshairs

The Trump administration has opened a new round of tariff investigations that could lead to higher duties on at least 16 trading partners, as officials seek to rebuild a trade enforcement framework after the Supreme Court invalidated a number of the president’s second-term tariffs.

The probes, announced Wednesday by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, will be conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a statute that allows the U.S. to impose tariffs on countries whose policies are deemed to discriminate against American commerce. The investigations require consultations with foreign governments as well as public hearings and comment periods before any new tariffs can be imposed.

The effort is intended to replace temporary global tariffs of 10% that President Donald Trump imposed last month after the Supreme Court ruled many of his earlier duties unlawful. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said officials have not yet determined how high the replacement tariffs might be, declining to prejudge the outcome of the investigations. Administration economic officials have previously indicated they aim to generate tariff revenue comparable to levels collected before the court’s decision, the WSJ reports.

The Probes

One investigation launched Wednesday will examine what U.S. officials describe as industrial overcapacity in export-oriented economies. The administration argues that subsidies in some countries allow producers to flood global markets with underpriced goods, undermining American manufacturers. Nations likely to face scrutiny include major U.S. trading partners such as China, India, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the European Union.

“Our view is that key trading partners have developed production capacity that is really untethered from the market incentives of domestic and global demand,” Greer told reporters ahead of the investigation’s release.

A second probe, expected later this week, will examine foreign policies related to forced labor. The inquiry could result in tariffs on countries that do not prohibit the sale or importation of goods produced through coerced labor. Greer said the investigation would target roughly 60 nations.

Section 301 investigations typically take months or even years to complete. Greer said the administration intends to accelerate the process and aims to finish the probes by mid-July, when the temporary tariffs are scheduled to expire.

Additional investigations could follow in the coming weeks, Greer said, potentially targeting specific countries or policy areas. Some could focus on blocs such as the European Union, while others may address issues like digital trade policies that the U.S. considers discriminatory toward American companies.

Let's Make a Deal

Many of the countries likely to be affected have already negotiated trade agreements with the U.S. during Trump’s second term in an effort to limit tariff exposure. Greer said he expects those agreements to remain in force, noting that trading partners had already anticipated some level of U.S. tariffs.

"The United States will no longer sacrifice its industrial base to other countries that may be exporting their problems with excess capacity and production to us. Today’s investigations underscore President Trump’s commitment to reshore critical supply chains and create good-paying jobs for American workers across our manufacturing sectors," said Greer in a statement. 

Trump’s earlier global duties had exempted products already covered by national-security tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Greer said it is too early to determine whether the new Section 301 tariffs will include similar exemptions, though the administration wants to avoid creating additional compliance complexity for companies.

While Section 301 provides a stronger legal foundation than the emergency powers used for the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, the move is likely to face political scrutiny. Democrats have warned that new duties could raise costs for consumers during an election year.

“Section 301 tariffs are meant to address specific and legitimate unfair trade practices,” Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, said in a statement. “They should not be used to drag the United States back into a cost-raising, broad-based tariff regime now that the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s illegal Ieepa taxes on American consumers.”

Companies will have until mid-April to submit comments related to the industrial overcapacity probe, Greer said, with public hearings scheduled for early May.

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 07:45

Ten Maersk Ships 'Trapped' In Persian Gulf

Authored by Stuart Chirls va Freightwaves.com,

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has effectively trapped 10 Maersk ships in the Persian Gulf, its chief executive said.

In separate interviews with CNN and the Wall Street Journal, Vincent Clerc said the Danish carrier’s ships “cannot get out,” are “stuck in the Upper Gulf” and cannot leave the region.

As a safety measure, Clerc said the vessels have been grouped offshore and away from ports under attack. At least one ship is under contract to the U.S. government’s Military Sealift Command, according to data on maritime identification websites.

Even if a ceasefire allowed vessel traffic to begin moving, Clerc said it would take a week to 10 days for the world’s second-largest liner (MAERSK-B.CO) to resume normal operations.

Clerc’s comments underscore the frustrations of shipping lines who have requested and repeatedly been denied naval escorts by the Trump administration. Carriers have been told in briefings that the Strait is still too dangerous for transit. 

Iran on Wednesday used unmanned boats to attack two tankers, and also deployed missiles and drones to attack ports, airports and other landside targets in the Gulf region. A ONE container ship sustained damage from unidentified projectiles.

Maersk is prioritizing the safety of crews, ships, and customers’ cargo, said Clerc, and will only restart voyages if that safety is guaranteed.

Shipping executives gathered in Connecticut for an industry conference said that the Iran war has idled 10,000 merchant crew and hundreds of vessels in the Persian Gulf. Mariners have little choice but to stay with their ships, since most airlines have suspended flights into and out of the area.

Maersk, like others major carriers, has suspended or re-routed some services to and from Gulf states and is rerouting vessels via alternate hubs, to stage cargo until the strait is re-opened. It has also assessed shippers with a number of emergency surcharges.

The closure of Hormuz and related disruptions in the Red Sea have had “profound” effects on global shipping and supply chains, Clerc said, and that Maersk is in “uncharted territory.”

Bunkering terminals in Asia and the Middle East could risk running dry amid the disruption of fuel supply chains, and he warned added costs for diversions and delays will be passed on to customers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 07:20

Bessent Greenlights Sale Of Russian Oil At Sea To "Promote Stability In Global Energy Markets"

In a statement late Thursday on X, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. will allow countries to purchase Russian crude oil already at sea. The move aims to temporarily boost global supply availability, as the IEA warned earlier that the Middle East conflict has sparked one of the worst energy shocks on record.

"To increase the global reach of existing supply, @USTreasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea," Bessent said.

He continued, "This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction."

.@POTUS is taking decisive steps to promote stability in global energy markets and working to keep prices low as we address the threat and instability posed by the terrorist Iranian regime.

To increase the global reach of existing supply, @USTreasury is providing a temporary…

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) March 12, 2026

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu told clients earlier this morning that about 124 million barrels of Russian-origin oil were at sea across 30 locations worldwide.

More specifically, Bloomberg analysts said about 30 Russian tankers are in Asian waters and may be available for purchase. These tankers carry about 19 million barrels of Russian crude and 310,000 tons of refined products.

Bloomberg data show these Russian tankers are signaling "for orders" or, in other words, have no clear destination yet. They could be unloaded in Singapore or Malaysia.

Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "Of course, any supply helps, but this is a smaller help than it looks."

Rennie estimated that of the 125 million to 150 million barrels of Russian crude on the water, about a third is off China and is likely to end up in storage, while 30 million to 40 million barrels are in India and are likely to be consumed there.

Rennie said the rest is in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. "We are only really talking about replacing maybe four or five days of lost Gulf exports. Sure, it helps, but it is no panacea," he added.

Bessent's office also issued India a 30-day waiver at the beginning of the month so that New Delhi could buy Russian oil at sea to build reserves and cushion against an oil shock.

Brent crude futures are largely unchanged from when Bessent posted on X overnight. President Trump said the U.S. has "plenty of time" in the Iran war. Brent hovers around $100/bbl as of 0630 ET.

The Trump administration has taken several steps to combat triple-digit Brent and WTI prices, including the planned release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. SPR. The release is part of a much larger 400-million-barrel SPR dump worldwide, agreed upon by the 32-nation IEA. This comes as the IEA warned about the worst-ever energy shock to hit the world. Also, the Trump administration is waiving a century-old law that requires U.S. ships to transport goods between American ports, so that domestic supplies can be shifted around more quickly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• AI Isn’t Coming for Everyone’s Job: The Atlantic on the limits of artificial intelligence — the things AI does brilliantly and the vast terrain of human work it can’t touch. The rise and fall of the player piano indicates a robust demand for human labor that machines cannot replace. (The Atlantic)

• How Homeowners Are Turning to Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, in Charts: The prospect of short-term savings is pushing more buyers to adjustable-rate mortgages. (Wall Street Journal) see also How elevator rules are throwing a wrench into America’s housing market: The unintended consequences of a 1988 law are making housing less accessible and driving up prices. Disability-access elevator requirements are adding enormous cost to mid-rise construction, making affordable housing harder to build. (Washington Post)

• What the Push for Alts in Retail Channels Means for Institutional Investors: Limited partners have questions about their managers’ quest for new sources of capital. (Chief Investment Officer)

• The return-to-the-office trend backfires: Across practitioner reports and peer-reviewed research, organizations that commit to highly flexible models, including remote-first, report strong output, healthier engagement, and faster growth than mandate-driven peers. (The Hill)

• Why ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did: The classic automation parable gets a second act — and the real job killer wasn’t the machine you’d expect. There’s a lot more to replacing labor than just automating tasks. (David Oks) see also Silicon Valley’s New Obsession: Watching Bots Do Their Grunt Work:  Tech workers are mesmerized by watching AI agents click through spreadsheets and fill out forms on their behalf; they compare notes on how long their fleet of virtual interns can labor away without making a mistake (Wall Street Journal)

• Microsoft Takes a Stand Against the Trump Administration: The technology giant’s siding with Anthropic in its fight against the Pentagon stands out in an era when big companies have tended to keep quiet. As the tech giant pushes back on Pentagon demands, Anthropic is caught in the middle. (DealBook)

• How a Die-Hard Libertarian Is Negotiating Lower Health-Care Costs:  An Oklahoma anesthesiologist has spent decades posting transparent prices at his surgery center. Others are now following his lead. (Businessweek)

• The right way to be a scientific contrarian: Being a skeptic is important. Being a crank is not. Here’s how to tell the difference. Not everyone accepts the scientific consensus; some even make careers out of challenging it. But only a select few do it the right way. (Big Think)

• YouTube Just Ate TV. It’s Only Getting Started. YouTube has surpassed traditional television in viewership across sports, late night, and comedy — and the gap is widening fast.(Hollywood Reporter)

• What Brad Pitt in ‘F1’ and Michael B. Jordan in ‘Sinners’ Can Teach Men About Style: This year’s Oscar-nominated movies are a menswear feast. Stylists and costume designers offer five takeaways. Hollywood’s latest leading men are offering a masterclass in how to dress like a grown-up. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

We assume human cognitive labor is scarce and predictably compensated. AI, however, undoes this scarcity.

Source: Paul Kedrosky

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

'Societal Time Bomb' – Explosive German Police Study Finds Nearly Half All Muslims Under 40 Has 'Islamist' Attitudes

Via Remix News,

A newly released study by the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), nearly 50 percent of Muslims under the age of 40 in Germany hold “Islamist” views, with these Muslims expressing an attraction to Islamism, a preference for Sharia law over the German Basic Law, and harboring anti-Semitic prejudices.

The findings, described as “explosive in nature,” were featured in the latest edition of the “Motra Monitor.” The study reports that as of 2025, Muslims in Germany under the age of 40 (45.1 percent) hold “latent or manifestly Islamist attitudes.“

Some German politicians have already voiced their views on the study’s release. Wolfgang Kubicki, a prominent politician in the Free Democrats (FDP) and former MP, stated on X: “This study should set off all the alarm bells. It is a societal time bomb. We must not only talk about migration, but also about integration and religion. The policy of naively looking away has favored this development. The naivety must stop.”

He further stated that “anyone who demands a caliphate is an enemy of democracy. Enemies of democracy without German citizenship must leave the country. Neighborhoods where ghettoization provides fertile ground for radicalization must be restructured. Islamic associations without a clear demarcation from extremists must not be interlocutors for politics. Germany must act secular and self-confident.”

He further called for an end to headscarves in schools and other state institutions “not to harass or suspect the wearers, but to make it clear that the only binding source of our values is the Basic Law.”

Bei dieser Studie müssen alle Alarmglocken angehen. Das ist eine gesellschaftliche Zeitbombe. Wir dürfen nicht nur über Migration reden, sondern auch über Integration und Religion. Die Politik des naiven Wegsehens hat diese Entwicklung begünstigt. Die Naivität muss aufhören.
Wer… pic.twitter.com/h7rvl4GjbQ

— Wolfgang Kubicki (@KubickiWo) March 12, 2026

Beyond rising crime rates, terrorism offenses, and demographic change, the soaring numbers of Muslims in Europe also raise fundamental questions about worldview and society.

The “Motra monitor,” a monitoring system tracking radicalization, spans 598 pages. It is published by the BKA and receives funding from several entities, including the Federal Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Family Affairs. While the report addresses various forms of extremism, including right-wing movements, it places a significant focus on Islamist extremism.

Evidence of these tensions surfaced in the summer of 2025 when “young Muslims and radical left-wing Germans occupied the Gutenberg Memorial in Frankfurt to demonstrate against Israel, some of them willing to use violence.“

The study’s researchers highlight a concerning core demographic, noting that “manifest Islamist attitudes are most prevalent among Muslims under 40, at 11.5 percent.“

In this context, “manifesto“ indicates that a person’s radicalization toward Islamism is already clearly evident and pronounced.

Further complicating the social landscape is a much larger group identified by the authors as having “latently Islamism-savvy attitudes.” This segment has seen a massive increase since 2021. The research group writes that “this amounts to 33.6 percent for those under 40 in 2025.“

While “latent” suggests these Islamist attitudes are present, the radicalization has not yet become openly visible. Combined, these two groups account for “45.1 percent“ of all under-40 Muslims in Germany.

Renowned Islamism researcher Prof. Susanne Schröter, who conducted most of her research into Islamism at the Institute of Ethnology at Goethe University Frankfurt and served as the director of the Frankfurt Research Center for Global Islam until 2025, said to Bild: “Islamism-savvy means that Muslims consider Islamist interpretations of Islam to be correct, are attracted to Islamist organizations close to the Muslim Brotherhood or Salafism, prefer Sharia to the Basic Law, and usually also have anti-Semitic prejudices.”

The BKA study suggests that the radicalization of young Muslims accelerated significantly following the Hamas terrorist attacks on Oct. 7, 2023.

Germany is far from the only country seeing the rise of Islamism within the populace. A sobering study from the prestigious polling service Ifop from last year shows that hardline views are growing amongst Muslims in France, including an emphasis on the laws of Islam being placed over those of the state, particularly among young Muslims. At the same time, Christianity is collapsing in France.

Among Muslims in general, 44 percent polled say they “respect the rules of Islam” as being more important “than respect for French laws.” For those aged 15-24, 57 percent believe the rules of Islam are more important than “respect for French laws.”

Some 38 percent of French Muslims approve of all or part of Islamist positions, doubling the figure of 19 percent in 1998, underlines Ifop.

Correspondingly, the share of Muslims who want Islam to modernize has fallen from 48 percent in 1998 to 21 percent today. When Ifop requested respondents to choose between the Civil Code and Sharia law on “an important subject in your family, such as ritual slaughter, marriage or inheritance,” 49 percent of Muslims chose to respect French laws, down from 62 percent in 1995. The consumption of alcohol among Muslim men has also fallen sharply, from 46 percent in 1989 to only 26 percent today.

Today, 33 percent of Muslims residing in France — French citizens or foreign nationals — feel sympathy for one of the Islamist movements, a figure that rises to 42 percent among young people. Within this population, 3 percent have sympathy for the most radical and bloody ideology, jihadism.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 06:30

Feminist Monster Film "The Bride" Is Biggest Box Office Bomb Of 2026

According to polls, around half of the US population identifies with feminism and feminist activism (though, this stat is in steep decline among Gen Z men).  But if this is truly the case and there is such a large population of feminist allies out there in the ether, why don't they ever show up to movie theaters to support films with blatant feminist messaging? 

The obvious conclusion is that the public has been lied to and there is no vast feminist movement.  It's a paper tiger, a fantasy, a mirage. 

We have seen this reality play out time and time again over the past few years as the American populace has now awakened to Hollywood's woke propaganda agenda.  Almost every instance of a new film or streaming series being exposed as far-left in its content results in financial failure.  There is no audience for these projects.   

The entertainment industry has resorted to masking feminist propaganda behind popular branding and false marketing in order to trick consumers into theater seats (the Barbie movie comes to mind), but these successes are few and far between.  Such projects might have a small, niche market on militant progressive streaming services like Netflix, but they still call for a bare bones budget and minimal marketing on dedicated woke media platforms. 

Around 20 years ago, feminist art house flicks, LGBT dramas and race based commentaries were made for around $10 million a pop and were relegated to festivals like Sundance and Cannes.  At these exclusive events they would garner ample and pompous applause from uppity New York and LA socialites and then fizzle into obscurity where they belong.

Today, major studios are spending upwards of $150 million in production and marketing costs to make and distribute the same kinds of film school garbage, and they are losing their shirts. 

A recent example is aging actress and amateur director Maggie Gyllenhaal's feminist monster film "The Bride", which latches onto the public domain story of Frankenstein (every movie must be a remake or a reboot to get greenlit these days). 

The project was given a production budget of $90 million and a marketing budget of $65 million - A total of $155 million spent to bring the dead plot to life.  In its opening week, The Bride has brought in around $14 million in global box office receipts, and keep in mind, half those revenues go to theaters.  

It's a unmitigated disaster; the biggest theatrical flop of the year and it probably won't be beat in 2026.  That said, anyone with any sense could have predicted this movie's downfall. 

The story follows a woman possessed by the spirit of Mary Shelley, who is back from the dead to tell the story of "the bride" she had always meant to tell.  She says she was "held back by the patriarchy" from writing the tale, but now you get to see it on the big screen for $20 per ticket and $50 for popcorn and soda.  Lucky you.

The woman is, of course, murdered by evil men and then brought back to life by a scientist who is seeking a companion for the Frankenstein Monster (played by Christian Bale), who is lonely after 100 years of being an angry "incel".

The story then devolves into a college girl's self indulgent fan fiction of the Bride of Frankenstein, mixing elements of Sid and Nancy with Bonnie and Clyde.  The main character and her male sidekick go on a killing spree, which inspires other women across the country to commit copycat crimes and murder the "men who wronged them".

Maggie Gylenhaal:

“Maybe I’ll get in trouble but…when I really became a director was actually… the morning that Trump was first elected.”

She explains it was in order to fight "sexism"...

Get ready for more of this retarded crap at the Oscars..pic.twitter.com/XZkCpfD1IB

— Aɴᴛ (@AntSpeaks) March 10, 2026

There is nothing new or groundbreaking about the concept.  From "Thelma and Louise" to the movie "I Shot Andy Warhol", there are hundreds of movies and TV shows affirming the feminist notion that women are immune to accountability. In other words, if a women does something evil, we must assume she has a good reason.  Or, women are allowed to do evil as long as they perceive themselves to be victims. 

The Bride is yet another tired version of this ongoing feminist trope of women being "empowered" by psychopathy.  Not only that, but it regurgitates the leftist extremist fantasy of becoming some kind of Marxist martyr and triggering a bloody mob frenzy.  The fundamental motivation of these stories is narcissistic in nature; a desperate desire to be so adored and worshiped that people would gleefully destroy or kill to honor your name.  

The theatrical apparatus is still being bombarded with woke content into 2026 despite dismal audience attendance because most of these movies were approved and started filming during the Biden Administration when studios thought the woke indoctrination machine was well protected.  The Bride received approval in January of 2024 and started filming that same year.  A lot has changed since then. 

For now, entertainment productions are plummeting (down 60%) and Hollywood is lost.  They centered their entire business model around the woke agenda and now they have no idea how to restructure and create real content again.  It is likely these companies will collapse in due course, making way for newcomers with better ideas, greater talent and less political zealotry.   

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 05:45

UK Govt Urges Schools To Snitch On 'Anti-Muslim Hostility' In Orwellian Crackdown

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The UK government is ramping up its assault on free expression, now urging schools, councils, and workplaces to monitor and report “anti-Muslim hostility” as part of a broader strategy that critics slam as a tool to silence legitimate debate.

Under Labour’s plans, institutions will be encouraged to track incidents of ‘prejudice’ against Muslims, with a new definition adopted to clarify unacceptable behavior. This comes amid a surge in hate crimes, but opponents warn it could muzzle criticism of Islamism or immigration policies.

Schools are at the forefront, with the government pushing for monitoring in education settings where antisemitism and anti-Muslim hate have reportedly normalized.

Schools, councils and workplaces will be encouraged to monitor incidents of anti-Muslim hostility under Labour 'Islamophobia' plans that critics warn risk having a "chilling effect" on free speech. https://t.co/URDChhiVht

— The Daily Sceptic (@LD_Sceptics) March 10, 2026

This escalating surveillance in schools reeks of authoritarian control, prioritizing thought policing over genuine security.

The strategy includes boosting security for mosques and Muslim schools through schemes upgrading CCTV, alarms, and fencing. A new “anti-Muslim hostility tsar” will oversee implementation, advising schools, universities, and public services on tackling hatred.

Communities Secretary Steve Reed defended the move in Parliament: “Today, we are adopting a non-statutory definition of anti-Muslim hostility. This gives a clear explanation of unacceptable prejudice, discrimination and hatred targeting Muslims, so we can take action to stop it.”

But Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, has blasted the vague wording, warning it could chill free speech and make people afraid to criticize Islam, migration, or Islamist extremism. He argued it might be used to silence debate rather than stop actual attacks.

Labour’s Islamophobia definition ‘will curb free speech’ and inhibit criticism of religion, says counter-terrorism tsar.

The Government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, Jonathan Hall KC, has said that the official definition could stop people freely criticising… pic.twitter.com/vhxKjwVodS

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) March 9, 2026

Tory MP Miriam Cates echoed concerns, noting the definition raises serious questions. A recommendation from Hall suggested including examples of free speech not deemed anti-Muslim hatred to safeguard open discussion.

Richard Holmes, from the Free Speech Union, added: “It risks hindering free speech under the law and legitimate criticism of Islamism.”

Labour insists the definition won’t halt legitimate criticism of religion, focusing instead on tackling anti-Muslim hatred without protecting Islam from scrutiny.

This push also ties into the leaked “social cohesion” strategy previously covered earlier, where the government branded the Union Jack and other national flags as potential “tools of hate” wielded by the “extreme right” to intimidate.

That draft allocated £800 million over 10 years to areas under “pressure,” highlighting how antisemitism has become “normalised” in society, from schools to the NHS.

It’s also part of the regime’s broader censorship drive, like plotting another X shutdown over Grok’s “offensive” roasts targeting religions. As users pointed out, the likely real motive behind the push is that Kier Starmer’s administration can’t handle a platform exposing their constant lies and spreading of misinformation.

Meanwhile, counter-terror police are warning teens that sharing “funny” content online could land them a criminal record, framing memes as potential terrorism gateways. In one ad, a white schoolboy faces device seizures for linking material later deemed extremist—all while real threats from Islamist ideology go under-prioritized.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 05:00

"Consumer Sentiment Going Down": EU Auto Heads Begin Blaming Iran Conflict For Industry Woes

The first-order effect of the U.S.-Iran conflict was widespread disruption across the Middle East. The second-order effect was an energy price shock that drove gasoline and diesel prices at the pump sharply higher. The third-order effect could be a deterioration in consumer sentiment amid higher energy costs, rising inflation fears, and broader economic/geopolitical uncertainty.

The transmission of the energy shock to consumers appears to have materialized just 12 days into Operation Epic Fury, according to executives at Volkswagen and Volvo Car, who report that consumer sentiment has already softened.

"We are already seeing customer sentiment decline in many markets," Volkswagen Head of Sales Martin Sander told an industry event in London earlier on Thursday. "Consumers were already facing a great deal of uncertainty, and this is now, of course, adding another layer of anxiety."

Volvo's UK managing director, Nicole Melillo Shaw, told the audience that economic uncertainty may soon weigh on consumer sentiment enough for households to begin pulling back on big-ticket purchases.

"If I don't need to and I've got other considerations around the cost of living going up, then maybe I won't buy another new car," Shaw said. Both EU car company heads were speaking at an industry event hosted by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.  

Earlier this week, UBS analyst Joseph Spak noted that investor concerns were mounting over a spike in crude prices and the threat it poses to auto demand. However, he noted that oil prices and auto demand in the U.S. show only a weak long-term linkage:

Investor concern around higher oil prices pressuring U.S. auto demand is understandable, especially considering affordability is already an issue. But historical data suggests the relationship is modest at best.

Looking back to 1970, U.S. light vehicle SAAR exhibits only a slight negative correlation with real oil prices (-0.15, Figure 1), and a similarly weak correlation with real gasoline prices since 1990 (-0.17, Figure 2).

While directionally intuitive, these correlations are small and insufficient to explain meaningful shifts in industry demand on their own.

The question now is whether European carmakers are merely scapegoating Trump's Operation Epic Fury, given that their sales were already sagging well before the conflict and Chinese brands were steadily taking market share.

Much more in the full note (available here to pro subscribers).

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 04:15

Germany's Industrial Collapse: Degrowth And Ideology At Work

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Even with some temporal distance and broader perspective, the election result in Baden-Württemberg makes no sense. That the two eco-socialist parties, fused into a kind of political twin planet—Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and the CDU—could claim almost two-thirds of the votes cast is staggering given the economic situation in the country. It raises a fundamental question: Can—or will—Germans no longer connect economic decline with political responsibility in any meaningful way?

Baden-Württemberg’s capital, Stuttgart, is notably at the epicenter of this decline. The city serves, in a way, as a blueprint for the future envisioned by green transformation advocates.

It makes no difference whether it is green ideologues and hardliners like Jürgen Trittin exploiting the cultivated German guilt complex for their degrowth fantasies, or CDU politicians of the Merkel-Merz line staging placebo reforms for public consumption. Both strategies ultimately point to the same goal: replacing traditional German industry with a state-controlled command economy.

That the Mittelstand and major industry are collapsing under mounting fiscal pressure and the energy transition catastrophe is undeniable. Added to this is a kind of vacuum effect in the capital markets.

Every subsidy, especially the state-guaranteed high returns in the green art economy, drains valuable resources from the free market. Startup funding, growth financing, and venture capital are systematically squeezed or driven abroad.

Entrepreneurs may even choose the simpler path of marching along, extracting subsidies on the way to the green paradise. The problem is that state-run economics, whether executed by private companies as government proxies or directly by the state, adds no value to the economy. It is a destructive mechanism, felt even by city treasurers in Stuttgart, the new capital of ideological escapists.

Last year, trade tax revenue collapsed by roughly fifty percent—a clear sign of massive economic damage. The city budget deficit surged to €800 million. Only a €2.4 billion emergency credit keeps the city afloat over the next three years.

In real life, those responsible for this disaster might face court for insolvency mismanagement. But for politics in Germany—and much of the European Union—different standards evidently apply.

Hardly anyone seems to notice that the technological and emotional flagships with which the region identified over generations are collapsing under the green regime. Daimler alone cut 7,000 jobs in the Stuttgart region, Bosch another 4,000.

The state risks becoming a gigantic social park, partially deforested for monstrous wind turbines, its landscapes overrun with solar farms.

It is interesting to observe how conservative work ethic, once a prominent regional virtue, has translated over time into militant green-socialist moralism.

That the system still functions at all owes today’s Southwest Germany precisely to nuclear power from France. Even this shows: this universal law is sometimes tinged with bitter cynicism.

No matter how high Württembergers and Badeners have built their walls of illusion, the waves of real economics will shatter this political illusion of reform denial. Rumors are already circulating that Porsche may have to lay off up to 5,000 employees in the region. Regional industrial production is no longer competitive.

It will be a painful learning process. But even South German green enthusiasts cannot indefinitely evade the axioms of economics.

Competitiveness is not created in the seminars of flourishing NGOs or the numerous ecological interest groups preaching through the media in zealot tones.

No, companies will learn it the hard way: their real wealth, now overgrown with the swamp plant of moralism, was the product of rigorous discipline, market order, and rational bourgeois ethics. Globally sought-after engineering achievements contributed significantly.

Still, about twelve percent of the region’s total economic output comes from mechanical engineering—the very sector weakened most under the green-socialist regime, second only to the region’s automotive industry, another pillar. VDMA report

Like Shakespeare, the Romeo and Juliet of the German economy are now taking their own lives. Since 2018, industrial production in Germany has fallen over twenty percent, with mechanical engineering alone losing five percent last year.

This is no longer a recession—it is a conscious economic decline in the name of the green god, worshiped in Baden-Württemberg more fervently than anywhere else in the republic. A shame for this beautiful region with its rich and remarkable history.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 03:30

Volkswagen Plans 50,000 Job Cuts Due To Plunging Profits; Board Members Grab €1.75MM Each In Bonuses

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

German automaker Volkswagen plans to cut around 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 as profits slump and the company struggles with rising costs, tariffs, and declining margins.

The job cuts were announced alongside the company’s 2025 financial results, which showed net profit falling 44 percent to €6.9 billion — the lowest level since the fallout from the Volkswagen emissions scandal.

At the same time, Volkswagen’s board has come under fire after securing additional bonus payments tied to the 2025 financial year.

According to reporting by Tichys Einblick, board members are set to receive bonuses of up to €1.75 million each after the company unexpectedly reported around €6 billion in net automotive cash flow for 2025, a figure that the news outlet claims was achieved by adopting “creative accounting practices.”

It pushed Volkswagen above the €5.6 billion threshold in its executive compensation scheme, activating the highest bonus tier for board members.

The cash-flow result was partly achieved through a factoring operation in which Volkswagen sold outstanding receivables from its operating business to generate immediate liquidity, according to the report.

In the same financial year, workers were forced to forgo bonuses of up to €5,000 due to the company’s weak performance.

In a letter to shareholders on Tuesday, CEO Oliver Blume confirmed the planned workforce reduction, saying the figure applies across the entire Volkswagen Group in Germany. The company had already announced plans to cut around 35,000 jobs at the core Volkswagen brand by the end of the decade.

The company said the drop in net profit was driven by billions of euros in charges linked to its sports car subsidiary Porsche AG, the impact of U.S. import tariffs, and the costs of restructuring across the group.

Revenue remained largely stable at just under €322 billion, down 0.8 percent compared with the previous year, while global vehicle deliveries slipped slightly to just under 9 million units.

Sales rose 5 percent in Europe and 10 percent in South America, but declined 12 percent in North America and 6 percent in China, where the Asian country’s domestic market continues to thrive.

Profitability was particularly affected by a sharp collapse in earnings at Porsche, where operating profit fell to just €90 million from more than €5 billion a year earlier.

CFO Arno Antlitz warned that the current level of profitability is not sustainable. “2025 was shaped by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and intense competitive pressure, but the operating margin of 4.6 percent adjusted for restructuring is not sufficient in the long run,” his statement from the company’s press release read.

Volkswagen said its transition toward electric vehicles is also weighing on margins. Fully electric models now account for 22 percent of the company’s order backlog, and electric vehicle sales rose 55 percent last year, but high development and production costs continue to reduce profitability.

Looking ahead to 2026, the group warned that “challenges are expected in particular from the macroeconomic environment, uncertainties regarding restrictions in international trade and geopolitical tensions.”

It also cited “increasing competitive intensity, volatile commodity, energy and foreign exchange markets, as well as high requirements resulting from emissions-related regulations.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/13/2026 - 02:00

Indian H1B Scammers Found Guilty In Multi-Million Dollar Fraud In Pennsylvania

A federal jury in Philadelphia has delivered a resounding guilty verdict against two Pennsylvania brothers and a longtime associate, convicting them of masterminding one of the most elaborate and prolonged racketeering operations uncovered in recent years. The scheme, which prosecutors say drained more than $32 million from Pennsylvania's Medicaid program while exploiting vulnerable foreign workers through the H-1B visa system, spanned over a decade and involved layers of deception across multiple states.

At the center of the criminal enterprise - self-dubbed the “Savani Group” - were brothers Bhaskar Savani, 60, a trained dentist from Ambler, Pennsylvania, and Arun Savani, 58, from Blue Bell, Pennsylvania. Bhaskar controlled the group's extensive network of dental practices, while Arun oversaw finances and real estate holdings. Together, they built what U.S. Attorney David Metcalf described as a “complex web” of sham entities and fraudulent operations, amassing tens of millions through outright fraud “at every turn.”

A third defendant, Aleksandra “Ola” Radomiak, 48, of Lansdale, Pennsylvania—a longtime associate—was also convicted for her role, primarily in the healthcare fraud components.

The multi-faceted conspiracy encompassed several interlocking schemes:

• Visa fraud and worker exploitation: The group filed numerous false H-1B visa petitions with the U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. These applications misrepresented job titles, duties, and other details to bring in foreign workers—most from India—who were dependent on the Savani Group for their legal status. Once employed, many were coerced into kicking back portions of their salaries and paying additional fees back to the enterprise, creating a captive, underpaid workforce.

• Healthcare fraud against Medicaid: After the Savani Group's legitimate dental practices lost their Medicaid contracts due to prior issues, the conspirators pivoted to using nominee-owned shell entities and sham dental practices. They fraudulently billed Pennsylvania Medicaid in the names of non-treating dentists for services that were either unnecessary, never performed, or grossly inflated. This alone resulted in over $32 million in improper payments, robbing taxpayers and depriving the healthcare system of vital resources.

• Money laundering and tax evasion: Proceeds from the fraud were funneled through a sophisticated network of financial transactions, including concealment and transactional money laundering. The group also conspired to defraud the U.S. Treasury via wire fraud tied to false tax returns.

• Obstruction of justice: When federal investigators closed in, the conspirators actively obstructed a grand jury probe.

The convictions, handed down on March 9, 2026, after a lengthy trial, covered a sweeping array of charges under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act and related statutes. Both brothers were found guilty of: Conspiracy to conduct a racketeering enterprise, Conspiracy to commit visa fraud and visa fraud, Conspiracy to obstruct justice, Conspiracy to commit healthcare fraud and multiple counts of healthcare fraud, Money laundering conspiracy, concealment money laundering, and transactional money laundering, Conspiracy to defraud the U.S. Treasury, Wire fraud.

Bhaskar Savani faced additional conviction for conspiracy to distribute an adulterated and misbranded medical device in interstate commerce.

After emigrating from India, Bhaskar Savani, known as “Dr. B,” earned his dental degree from Temple University in 1995 and quickly set about building his practice into an empire.

Aside from his dental practices, he became an evangelist for the importation of Indian mangoes, persuading the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2007 to lift a 18-year ban, and expanded into real estate, becoming one of the financial backers of a proposed indoor velodrome in Valley Forge in 2006.

Meanwhile, he brought on brothers Arun, to oversee financial affairs for the businesses, and Niranjan, a fellow dentist, to help him expand his core dental businesses into an empire. -Philadelphia Inquirer

U.S. Attorney Metcalf emphasized the collaborative effort behind the case: “This sprawling investigation and prosecution meant untangling a complex web of fraudulent billing practices and sham medical entities. Our office worked with numerous state and federal partner agencies to unravel and prove the multiple healthcare fraud schemes at the heart of this operation. It’s gratifying to dismantle this crooked enterprise and hold those responsible to account. Fraud and abuse cost U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars each year and rob the healthcare system of vital resources.”

The brothers now face severe penalties: Bhaskar Savani up to 420 years in federal prison, and Arun Savani up to 415 years. Sentencing is scheduled for July 2026.

This case underscores the high stakes involved in combating sophisticated fraud rings that target public programs and exploit immigration pathways. The Savani Group's downfall highlights the determination of federal authorities to pursue even deeply entrenched operations, no matter how layered or long-running.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 23:05

FDA Unveils New Platform For Tracking Side Effects

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration on March 11 made public a new, consolidated platform for tracking side effects experienced by people following receipt of vaccines and drugs.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Officials are folding a number of existing platforms into the Adverse Event Monitoring System, which they are describing as a unified system that will be easier to search on.

“The FDA’s previous adverse event reporting systems were outdated and fragmented and made important data difficult to access. These clunky systems also wasted millions of taxpayer dollars and created blind spots in our postmarket surveillance of products ranging from drugs and vaccines to cosmetics,” Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA’s commissioner, said in a statement.

“We’re fixing the problem through a major modernization initiative. Starting today, the FDA will have a single, intuitive adverse event platform that will better serve agency scientists, researchers, and the public.”

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has previously criticized health agencies’ reporting of adverse events following vaccination and has said that fixes were coming.

The new FDA system is already providing data previously accessible in separate places, including the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System. Other systems, such as the Center for Tobacco Products Adverse Event Reporting System, are slated to be added in May.

The FDA receives more than two million reports of adverse events and medication errors each year. Regulators use those reports to monitor the safety of approved products, including vaccines.

Utilizing seven databases for the reports was expensive and made for a poor user experience, FDA officials said. They pegged the cost of running those databases at $37 million a year.

The new system is estimated to save the agency about $120 million over the next five years.

The Adverse Event Monitoring System can be accessed here.

Users of the new system are told that the reports provide valuable information but may contain inaccurate information, and cannot provide the prevalence of events or conclusively link products with problems. Consumers also should not stop or change medications without consulting a health care professional, the FDA says in the new system’s disclaimer.

The platform is designed to provide better data through changes such as standardized reporting protocols. Artificial intelligence is being used for some of the data digitization and other work.

“Consolidating the FDA’s adverse event systems and converting to real-time publication was challenging, but made possible by a highly aggressive schedule,” Jeremy Walsh, the FDA’s chief artificial intelligence officer, said in a statement. “The team executed with perfection and delivered the biggest technical transformation in agency history. This is the new FDA.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 22:40

Iran's Hormuz Naval Mines: A Powerful Asymmetric Weapon Paralyzing Tanker Traffic

Iran's asymmetric warfare in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from kamikaze drone strikes on tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships to littering the world's most important maritime chokepoint with naval mines.

Even though much of Iran's conventional naval capability has  been severely degraded in the 12 or so days of the Operation Epic Fury campaign, IRGC forces retain asymmetric leverage in Hormuz and the Gulf region through sea mines, drones, small vessels, and missile threats.

"It's a good tool of asymmetric warfare," Jahangir E. Arasli, a senior research fellow at Baku-based Institute for Development and Diplomacy who specializes in maritime threats, told the Wall Street Journal.

"The conventional capability is wiped out, but they have this asymmetrical capability," Arasli said, noting that he was speaking in a personal capacity.

BREAKING:

Iran is planting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, turning the vital waterway into a battlefield with daily clashes.

The U.S. Navy is rejecting requests from oil and shipping companies for escorts through the Strait of Hormuz due to the high risk of Iranian attacks,… pic.twitter.com/XPN6zhQk6B

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 11, 2026

The U.S. military said earlier this week that it had severely degraded IRGC naval forces, prompting Iran to shift away from sea denial operations in the maritime chokepoint and toward creating havoc in the waterway by laying naval mines.

Congressional Research Service, a nonpartisan public policy research arm of the U.S. Congress, released a 2020 report titled "Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies" that assessed Iran has roughly 3,000 to 6,000 naval mines, with some more recent estimates putting the stockpile toward the upper end of that range.

On Thursday, President Trump told reporters that U.S. forces have struck 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels. This move to disrupt naval mine operations comes as such activity would be a nightmare for commercial ship traffic in the narrow waterway.

Tehran deployed naval mines during its conflict with Iraq in the 1980s, during the so-called "tanker war," forcing the U.S. to escort tankers and other commercial ships.

"Mines are the weapon of the poor," a former senior officer with the French navy and specialist on the subject told AFP News on condition of anonymity.

Earlier, CNN reported that Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a new message that said the Hormuz chokepoint will remain closed as a "tool of pressure."

Naval mines in the waterway, along with the growing number of ships awaiting safe passage, suggest that U.S. and allied naval escorts may soon be required if Washington wants to unclog the chokepoint. Even so, Tehran appears to retain enough asymmetric capability to keep tensions high for weeks to come.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 22:15

Will Johnny Ever Learn To Read? Pushback Against Science Of Reading Mandates

Authored by Vince Bielski via RealClearInvestigations,

Half a century after the book “Why Johnny Can’t Read” sounded an alarm about the rise of illiteracy in the U.S., it has only gotten worse: A quarter of all young adults, many of them high school graduates, are now functionally illiterate. Unable to read more than basic, short sentences, their prospects in today’s information economy are bleak. 

This crisis gave rise to a movement that embraced the science of reading and produced a surprising success story in the Deep South, a region dogged by the highest rates of childhood illiteracy in the nation. State leaders and education reformers in Mississippi and Louisiana led a remarkable improvement in elementary reading scores that now rank among the highest in the nation. 

The turnaround was a long slog, requiring a heavy hand from the state to win buy-in for a wholesale transformation of curricula, teaching methods, accountability, and more. Former state education chief Carey Wright called it the “Mississippi Marathon.” One of the biggest questions in public education now is whether the southern surge can spread nationwide, turning millions of struggling students into proficient readers with a brighter future. 

But such a top-down approach is running into resistance, particularly in blue states like New York and Illinois, where strong teachers’ unions have fought to preserve local control over schools. And nowhere is the political battle over who runs the classroom more pronounced than in Massachusetts, which has long boasted the nation’s best public schools. 

Massachusetts’ governor is expected to sign a literacy bill in the coming months, making it one of about a dozen states to mandate adoption of curricula based on the science of reading in elementary grades. Laws in another 30 states merely encourage its use. Although these laws suggest a big step forward for the nation, Massachusetts illustrates the challenges ahead in some states – many of the educators responsible for implementing the mandated reforms see them as an affront to local control of classrooms.

The influential Massachusetts Teachers Association (MTA) led the campaign against the legislation, suffering a rare defeat at the statehouse. At least 300 superintendents, principals, and teachers in about 40 Massachusetts districts also signed a letter opposing the mandate, arguing that local educators know what’s best for students. 

The pushback in Massachusetts raises concerns among advocates about whether the reforms, especially the evidence-based curriculum and teacher training, will be fully implemented across the state. ExcelinEd, an advocacy group chaired by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, has identified many science of reading policies, big and small, that have helped states boost literacy rates. The group’s research found that the difference between states with the biggest reading gains and those that floundered boils down to how thoroughly they implemented most of the reforms.

“We know what works, and we have state exemplars like Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida that have actually done it,” said ExcelinEd Senior Policy Fellow Christy Hovanetz. “So unless more states are willing to do the hard work, we’re not going to see improved outcomes for our kids. And that severely impacts our economic prosperity and future. So yes, I’m concerned.”

State Versus Local Control

In the U.S., most school districts call the shots regarding the curriculum – the crucial teaching materials that determine how kids are taught. Although research shows that the quality of curricula makes a big difference in whether Johnny and Jill learn to read, this area of public education remains largely unregulated by most states, leaving 13,000 districts to pick instructional materials based on convenience, corporate marketing, or price if not quality. And nobody knows what curricula most districts use since only six states require such disclosure, according to Karen Vaites of the Curriculum Insight Project. 

Science of reading advocates say local control over curricula isn’t working. Consider fourth graders, about the age when a child’s reading skills strongly predict their future academic success or failure. In 2024, 40% of fourth graders across the nation scored below the Basic level, up from 34% in 2019 and nearly matching levels in 1992, according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the gold standard in testing. These students have trouble reading aloud, recognizing and decoding many grade-level words, and thus comprehending the meaning of text. They will struggle in all their classes through high school if they aren’t reading well in elementary school. 

States like Massachusetts are responding with mandates that require districts to pick from a menu of approved curricula backed by research showing their effectiveness. The Massachusetts Teachers Association doesn’t dispute that there’s a literacy crisis. But the union opposed the mandate, casting it as a form of government overreach in complex curricular matters best left to trained educators. 

“Our members have opposed legislated curriculum mandates for literacy education because they know losing flexibility to do their jobs and restricting their professional judgement inevitably means some students will continue to struggle with learning to read and write,” MTA President Max Page and Vice President Deb McCarthy said in a statement to RealClearInvestigations. “The law in Massachusetts will cost hundreds of millions of dollars to implement, and that money would be better spent on hiring staff and increasing professional development opportunities for educators.”

The union says it supports the voluntary adoption of evidence-based curricula by districts, which has been spurred on by grants from programs like Literacy Launch. Advocates estimate that about half of the state’s districts are experimenting with or rolling out higher-quality curricula. The other half is still using less-effective instructional materials, including Lucy Calkin’s popular Units of Study, which is based on the principles of a teaching strategy called Balanced Literacy. 

Failed Reform Efforts

Balanced Literacy emerged during the “reading wars” of the 1990s in an attempt to address the nation’s literacy decline. At the time, the prominent approach to instruction, called Whole Language, required students to learn words and sentences by looking at simple picture books as they were read aloud, and if needed, guess at pronunciation and meaning by the story’s context and images. Experts hoped that this loosely structured method would inspire a love of reading. 

While it worked for some students, critics said the lack of any explicit instruction in methods to decode words left many students struggling. Balanced Literacy came about as a compromise, adding a dash of phonics to help these students sound out words while keeping the fundamentals of the Whole Language strategy. 

De’Shawn Washington, winner of the 2024 Teacher of the Year award in Massachusetts, saw the damage done to his elementary students from Balanced Literacy’s Units of Study. In his Boston and Lexington classrooms, students who were already proficient readers advanced at a fast clip. But most students, who were one or two grade levels behind because they didn’t have exposure to reading at home or suffered from a disability, learned at a much slower pace, if at all. A few of his third graders were unable to read books for kindergarteners or write their names. Washington did his best to supplement Units of Study with more phonics, but it wasn’t much help.

“The struggling readers tended to get left behind, and the disparity between them and the proficient readers widened,” said Washington, whose experience turned him into an advocate of Massachusetts’s mandate. 

Calkins, a professor at Columbia, has publicly acknowledged her curriculum’s shortcomings. Yet Units of Study remains entrenched in more than two dozen districts in Massachusetts, which are part of the “widespread” resistance to literacy reforms, including in Boston Public Schools, says Darci Burns, executive director of HILL for Literacy, which trains Massachusetts teachers in evidence-based literacy practices. 

Burns says many of the gatekeepers of instructional materials, such as assistant superintendents and directors of curriculum, were trained to use Balanced Literacy and remain wedded to it like a religion. Teachers like its unscripted approach, giving them more freedom. Burns predicts they will try to skirt the mandate rather than support it. 

“These districts might adopt a reading program that’s the most aligned with Balanced Literacy,” Burns told RCI. “And then they’ll go through the motions, but they won’t really do it.”

The Science of Reading

In 2000, a National Reading Panel of top experts was set up to distill what several hundred gold-standard studies revealed about literacy instruction. Although the panel didn’t explicitly reject Balance Literacy, it found that a more structured approach to instruction in five areas was the most effective: phonemic awareness (learning word sounds), phonics (matching sounds to letters), fluency (reading aloud), vocabulary (learning word meanings), and comprehension (gleaning the meaning of text). 

The science of reading movement was built on these five pillars, with Massachusetts and other states incorporating them into legislation. Although more recent research has brought new insights – leading scholar Louisa Moats says language skills need much more emphasis in the five pillars – they remain the best approach to improved literacy. 

Yet two decades after the panel’s findings, most universities still haven’t read the memo. Signaling the challenges of wholesale reform, only a quarter of teacher preparation programs cover all five pillars, denying most instructors the training they need to be effective. 

This leaves educators in an unusual position – unlike most professionals, they are not trained in, and sometimes reject, the best practices of their trade. It’s another knock on the relevancy of higher education that Massachusetts and other states are now addressing by requiring teacher preparation to include the five pillars. 

“Most teachers don’t know the science of reading – that the point of phonemic awareness is to facilitate word recognition with an alphabetic writing system, or that the primary comprehension enabler is vocabulary,” said Moats. “I don’t want my grandkids in a classroom where the teacher has the autonomy to do whatever the hell she wants because I have seen the results of that.”

The five pillars may be on solid footing, but the curricula based on them are a work in progress. Some are comprehensive, others are too narrowly focused on the foundational skills like phonics and don’t include enough book reading and writing; some don’t focus enough on building students’ knowledge about subjects like history and science, which is key to reading comprehension; some haven’t been around long enough to have a proven track record. 

States with new literacy laws are not all doing a good job of vetting curricula to ensure they give districts the strongest options, says Vaites of the Curriculum Insight Project. The varying quality of the curricula has given ammunition to critics of mandates, like Superintendent Julie Hackett, whose affluent Lexington district in Massachusetts uses Units of Study. “We’ve done some looking into results around districts that have adopted new curricula and we are not seeing the results that would necessarily justify” spending up to $1 million to buy new instructional materials, Hackett said at an MTA event.

Vaites wrote that Hackett’s concerns are overblown. Although Massachusetts’ current list isn’t perfect, it does offer comprehensive programs covering the five pillars with an emphasis on reading books and building knowledge.

“Most of the curricula on Massachusetts’s list is pretty good, and now with the mandate, most people think that state leaders are savvy enough to make it even better,” Vaites told RCI.

Arduous Training

Southern states found that a new curriculum isn’t worth much unless teachers are trained to master it. Washington, the former teacher, says adopting a new curriculum is a lot of work, and classes and coaching gives teachers more confidence about handling such a big transition, convincing them that the science of reading is not just another education fad. 

“The training shifts the conversation away from resistance because teachers realize they are not going into this new situation blind and that there’s a big investment being made to improve the profession,” Washington said. 

The bills in Massachusetts offer training to all teachers rather than requiring it, as 18 other states, including Louisiana, have done, according to ExcelinEd’s literacy policy tracker. If that’s a concession to opponents, so is the decision by Massachusetts lawmakers not to adopt another reform that has proven effective in Louisiana, Mississippi, and other states: retaining third graders who can’t read at or near grade level from promotion. It’s a highly controversial policy that parents almost always oppose despite the long-term literacy benefits, according to a study of Mississippi that found retention “led to substantially higher ELA scores in sixth grade.”

In all, ExcelinEd has identified 18 reforms, including dyslexia screening and parental notification of reading problems, that the most successful states have implemented. Given the heavy lift, it’s not surprising that some states have stumbled. 

Of the 15 states that adopted most of the 18 policies by 2019, 10 of them outpaced the national average in fourth-grade NAEP reading scores by 2024, with Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina far out in front, according to Hovanetz, the policy fellow. These 10 states illustrate the effectiveness of the reforms.

But test scores in four of the 15 states declined more than the nation’s did, and Michigan tied, showing the difficulty of implementing the reforms. Among the backsliding states, Hovanetz says, New Mexico didn’t train and deploy all of its reading coaches, and Oklahoma and North Carolina ended their third-grade retention policy. 

“States get a whole bunch of constituent calls saying, ‘It’s not fair you’re retaining my kid.’ Then they back off of the policy and lose any momentum that they had gained,” says Hovanetz, a former Florida education official. 

Minnesota illustrates how things can go wrong when districts are encouraged, rather than mandated, to adopt evidence-based curricula and teacher training. “Some teachers took the training, not everyone did, and when they went back to their schools, teachers didn’t have the instructional materials to support what they learned in training, and they might not have had a leader at the school to support them," Hovanetz said. “So Minnesota probably wasted a whole lot of money.”

A number of other states haven’t bothered to pass meaningful science-of-reading laws. They include both liberal states like Washington and Illinois and conservative states like Montana and Maine.

In Massachusetts, a conference committee is reconciling the two bills, with the rollout of reforms set for 2027. The Senate bill requires districts to regularly assess K-3 students’ reading abilities and create improvement plans for those who score significantly below grade level. It’s a measure of accountability that advocates hope will produce positive results in a state that’s moving backwards in literacy on the NAEP test. 

In another concession to opponents of the mandate, lawmakers gave districts a narrow escape hatch. They can apply for a waiver from the mandate if their alternative curriculum is backed by research evidence. While the waiver could open the door to the adoption of Calkin’s revised Units of Study, it will have to pass muster with the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education.

Mary Tamer, who convened the Mass Reads coalition of 40 education groups to support the legislation that she helped write, is bullish about the adoption of reforms. Despite the opposition, she says the political momentum, underscored by the unanimous votes for the literacy bills in both the House and Senate, is strong enough to compel most districts to buy in.

“Our expectation is that districts will move toward evidence-based instruction as quickly as they can because it’s proven to teach children how to read,” she said. “And that is our goal here.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:50

Eric Swalwell Rents Room Linked To Former Staffer To Claim California Residency

Rep. Eric Swalwell has primarily been living in Washington, D.C. for years, and now that he’s running for governor of California, he’s hit a snag over residency. 

According to reports, Swalwell is renting a single room in a home in the eastern Bay Area that’s occupied by a family of three to claim residency in the state. Public records show it’s a three-bedroom, 1,350-square-foot home owned by Nicolas and Kristina Mrzywka. It is unlikely that Swalwell has ever truly lived there. And now, one of his Democratic primary rivals is calling him out on it.

“The alleged discovery of Swalwell’s Livermore rental came from the congressman’s top Democratic opponent, billionaire Tom Steyer,” reports the New York Post. “Steyer says Swalwell appears to ‘live in California on paper only’ as the governor race heats up, ‘making him unlikely to meet the basic residency requirements to run for Governor.’”

Ryan Hughes, Steyer’s attorney, is now calling on Secretary of State Shirley Weber to “enforce a dormant residency requirement in the governor’s race.” Hughes also encouraged Weber to “allow for robust legal proceedings as to whether Swalwell is eligible to serve as Governor,” which could be problematic when dealing with the Trump administration.

“If elected, questions of legitimacy would hang over Swalwell, allowing the Trump Administration to sow doubt, exploit the ambiguity, and advance its perverse agendas,” Hughes wrote. “The Trump Administration could question Swalwell’s legitimacy as Governor and, therefore, imperil California’s receipt of federal funds, the state’s ability to deploy the California National Guard, and act in emergencies.”

Why is Swalwell renting that particular room? Kristina Mrzywka is the sister of Stephanie Sbranti, the wife of Tim Sbranti, Swalwell's ex-deputy chief of staff and district director from 2015 to 2018, whom Hughes described as Swalwell’s “longtime mentor who helped introduce him to politics.”

Deed searches turn up no trace of ownership for Swalwell in Livermore. Meanwhile, a 2022 deed of trust lists him as the buyer of a house in Washington, D.C., which he claimed as his primary residence.

In an interview, Sbranti said he suggested Swalwell rent a room in the Livermore home “as a way to maintain an affordable base in an expensive district, ” the Sacramento Bee reported.

In the letter, Hughes stated that at least since 2018 the Secretary of State’s office “has taken the legal position that the five-year residency requirement is unconstitutional under the U.S. Constitution.”

In response, a declaration was filed on March 6 by Swalwell’s attorneys from his landlord Mrzywka.

In it she states that “under penalty of perjury” that “I entered a lease agreement with Eric and Brittany Swalwell in June 2017 for a property that I own in Livermore, California. Mr. and Mrs. Swalwell has leased the property from me since June 2017.”

Democrat Members of Congress from California are also sticking up for Swalwell.

“Like all members of the California congressional delegation, we work and live both in this great state and in Washington, DC, representing our constituents in Congress,” their joint statement reads. “Tom Steyer's insinuation that there is something wrong with that undermines us all. Steyer is pushing a bogus residency conspiracy that originated in MAGA circles at Donald Trump's bidding.”

The statement continued, “Eric Swalwell has spent his entire career fighting for California families - both in his district, and in our nation's Capitol. We have endorsed our colleague so he can continue this important work of protecting Californians from Trump and making the Golden State more affordable.”

The statement was signed by Reps. Jimmy Gomez, Adam Gray, Zoe Lofgren, Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui, Raul Ruiz, Ted Lieu, Lou Correa, Nanette Barragán, Jimmy Panetta, and Kevin Mullin

Steyer's campaign isn’t buying it.

 "With so much at stake in this election and this administration making anti-democratic moves all across the country, we hope that the Congressman can resolve this issue to avoid Donald Trump or Republican extremists exploiting it down the line or creating confusion for voters later in the process." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/12/2026 - 21:25