Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
The post Inflation Jumps in March: War-Related Jump in Energy Prices is the Story (Also Treatments for Rare Diseases) appeared first on CEPR.
Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, filed a lawsuit on April 9 over a Colorado law it claims makes AI developers endorse “Colorado’s views on diversity, equity, and inclusion or face significant compliance costs and civil fines.”
The chatbot Grok is the flagship product of xAI. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times
The company, whose flagship product is the chatbot Grok, named Colorado Attorney General Philip Weiser as the defendant. The lawsuit states that the law’s provisions “prohibit developers of AI systems from producing speech that the State of Colorado dislikes, while compelling them to conform their speech to a State-enforced orthodoxy on controversial topics of great public concern.” The lawsuit says the Colorado law violates the First Amendment.
Weiser didn’t respond to an email seeking comment.
The lawsuit questions the use of the term “algorithmic discrimination” in the law, calling it vague.
The text of the law defines it this way: “Algorithmic discrimination means any condition in which the use of an artificial intelligence system results in unlawful differential treatment or impact that disfavors an individual or group of individuals on the basis of their actual or perceived age, color, disability, ethnicity, genetic information, limited proficiency in the English language, national origin, race, religion, reproductive health, sex, veteran status, or other classification protected under the laws of this state or federal law.”
The bill, SB24-205, was introduced in April 2024, passed the next month, and will take effect on June 30, 2026.
Colorado Senate Democrats said during debate that “algorithmic discrimination has been shown to make biased determinations in cases involving hiring practices, housing applications, financial services, and health care coverage.”
“AI systems are evolving faster than we can write and pass policy on them—which is why we need to act now,” Sen. Robert Rodriguez, a Democrat whose district spans southern Denver, said in a statement. “Many systems’ algorithms have biases baked in and can easily result in discriminatory outcomes when it comes to housing applications, hiring practices, and more.”
xAI said in its lawsuit that Grok is not biased.
“xAI has designed and developed Grok to answer to only evidence and reason, without regard to political correctness, ideological biases, or anything that might distort objective truth,” the lawsuit said.
“This unwavering commitment ensures that Grok discharges its fundamental mission—assisting humanity in understanding the universe. But the State of Colorado now seeks to force xAI to abandon its disinterested pursuit of truth and instead promote the State’s ideological views on various matters, racial justice in particular.
“It is instead an effort to embed the State’s preferred views into the very fabric of AI systems. Its provisions prohibit developers of AI systems from producing speech that the State of Colorado dislikes, while compelling them to conform their speech to a State-enforced orthodoxy on controversial topics of great public concern.”
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 11:05U.S. software shares continued to slide on Friday, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) down 2.4%, as fears over AI-driven disruptions returned following a recent update from Anthropic.
In focus is software company Palantir, which has fallen from grace and is down 40% since peaking last November.
Palantir has been in the crosshairs of "Big Short" investor Michael Burry, who claimed that AI startup Anthropic is effectively "eating Palantir's lunch."
Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management, has since deleted the post, which was published on X on Thursday.
Short Interest has risen significantly in recent weeks..
Countering the Palantir bears this morning was none other than President Trump, who wrote in a Truth Social post:
"Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has proven to have great war fighting capabilities and equipment. Just ask our enemies!!! President DJT."
PLTR shares immediately surged after the president's comments, with the stock bottoming around $123 before moving higher to about $127. Shares are still down around 2% on the session...
Burry continued in the deleted post: "PLTR can have government, which is low margin and small," adding that while Anthropic is scaling at lightning speed, "it took $PLTR 20 years to get to $5 Billion."
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 11:00While PCE showed some signs of higher energy prices leaking into inflation prints, it was still February data. As we previewed, today's CPI data is for March and will bear the full brunt of the Iran War's impact on energy costs after Core CPI fell to its lowest in four years in February.
The headline CPI soared 0.9% MoM (as expected) and while it was a big MoM jump, Consumer Prices rose 3.3% YoY (up from +2.4% YoY in February), but below the 3.4% YoY exp...
Source: Bloomberg
This is the highest headline CPI YoY since April 2024 and biggest MoM jump since June 2022.
Obviously, Energy dominated the rise in headline CPI...
CPI Highlights:
CPI rose 0.9% MoM in March, up from 0.3% in February; it rose 3.3% YoY, up from 2.4% in February.
The index for energy rose 10.9% in March, led by a 21.2% increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase.
The shelter index also increased in March, rising 0.3%.
The index for food was unchanged over the month as the index for food away from home rose 0.2%, while the index for food at home fell 0.2%.
Core CPI rose 0.2% in March: Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, apparel, household furnishings and operations, education, and new vehicles. Conversely, the indexes for medical care, personal care, and used cars and trucks were among the major indexes that decreased in March.
Core CPI rose 3.3% YoY for the 12 months ending March, after rising 2.4% in February. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6% over the year, following a 2.5% increase over the 12 months ending February. The energy index increased 12.5% for the 12 months ending March. The food index increased 2.7% over the last year.
Food:
The index for food was unchanged in March after rising 0.4% in February.
The food at home index declined 0.2% over the month. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased in March.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.6% over the month as the index for eggs declined 3.4%.
The cereals and bakery products index also decreased 0.6% in March, as did the dairy and related products index.
The index for nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.3% over the month. In contrast, the fruits and vegetables index rose 1.0% in March.
The index for other food at home was unchanged over the month.
The food away from home index rose 0.2% in March. The index for full service meals rose 0.3% over the month and the index for limited service meals rose 0.2%.
Energy CPI highlights - a gas/electricity hammering thanks to Iran/Data centers:
The index for energy increased 10.9 percent in March, the largest monthly increase in the index since September 2005.
The gasoline index increased 21.2 percent over the month, the largest monthly increase since the series was first published in 1967. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 24.9% in March.)
The index for electricity rose 0.8% in March.
The fuel oil index increased 30.7% over the month, the largest monthly increase in the index since February 2000. Conversely, the index for natural gas decreased 0.9% over the month.
Gasoline's surge accounted for two-thirds of the rise in headline CPI...
Energy CPI is tracking WTI (and has room to rise further if oil remains disrupted)...
Core CPI (excluding Energy and Food prices) printed cooler than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp) with the Core YoY rising only modestly from February...
Source: Bloomberg
Core Services costs slowed modestly...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood of the Core print, things were much more mixed:
On the softer side, used car prices declined 0.4% month-over-month, recreation services prices declined 0.4% (likely partially reflecting residual seasonality in the sporting events subcomponent, which declined 10% month-over-month), prescription drugs prices declined 1.5%, medical care services prices were flat (reflecting a 1.9% decline in home healthcare and a 1.4% decline in health insurance), and legal services declined 4%.
On the stronger side, airfares rose 3%, apparel prices rose 1% (possibly reflecting tariff passthrough), owners’ equivalent rent accelerated to 0.28% (vs. 0.22% over the prior two months, reflecting payback from an unusually soft reading six months prior), and software prices rose 4% month-over-month (after rising 4.9% month-over-month on average over the previous three months).
Obviously, short-term (annualized) CPI is exploding higher...
SuperCore CPI (Services ex-Shelter) lifted very modestly on a YoY basis with Transportation Services the biggest driver...
Source: Bloomberg
The trend for slowing cost-of-housing inflation remains lower, but March did see notable MoM jumps...
Shelter inflation up 0.4% MoM, biggest monthly increase since Jan 2025. also up 3.02% YoY, first annual increase since Sept 2025
Rent inflation up 0.2% MoM, and up 2.56% YoY, slowest annual increase since Oct 2021
Nothing too surprising here for policymakers to fret over and rate-cut odds are modestly higher since the print.
The market seems willing right now to look through the spike - let's just hope the '70s analog is not about to play out.
Finally, based on the details in the CPI report, Goldman Sachs estimates that the core PCE price index rose 0.22% in March (vs. our expectation of 0.23% prior to today's CPI report), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.10%.
Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.60% in March, or increased 3.40% from a year earlier.
Goldman estimates that market-based core PCE rose 0.22% in March.
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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 10:55Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA,
President Donald Trump minced no words in a lengthy and fiery rebuke of podcast hosts Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens and Alex Jones amid their criticisms over the U.S.’s military operations in Iran.
President Donald Trump speaks before signing an executive order barring transgender female athletes from competing in women's or girls' sporting events, in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
“They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
His comments come as part of a 482-word takedown that directly accuses Carlson, Kelly, Owens and Jones of seemingly stirring controversy for views engagement.
“They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some ‘free’ and cheap publicity,” Trump added.
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 9, 2026
His comments follow some of these hosts taking issue with Trump’s warning to Iran that a “whole civilization will die tonight” over Easter weekend if the Islamic regime did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“Now it’s time to say no, absolutely not, and say it directly to the president, no,” Carlson said, for instance.
Trump targeted each individual with personalized criticism, saying that Carlson “couldn’t even finish college” and was a “broken man when he got fired from Fox.”
Trump also targeted Kelly, saying she “nastily asked me the now famous ‘Only Rosie O’Donnell,’” and then slammed Owens as “‘crazy.”
Trump also referenced the past controversy surrounding Owens’ dubious claims that French First Lady Brigitte Macron is transgender.
“Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close!” Trump continued.
Trump also criticized Jones, calling him “Bankrupt Alex Jones” and saying he “says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax.”
“These so-called ‘pundits’ are LOSERS, and they will always be!” Trump said.
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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 10:20While the March UMich sentiment survey was completed before and after the start of the Iran War (with only modest impacts on sentiment and inflation expectations), today's preliminary April data survey period was all in the war with expectations for a notable drop in sentiment and sizable jump in inflation expectations.
It turns out the expectations were right in direction but underestimated the scale as headline sentiment plunged from 53.3 to 47.6 (far worse than the 51.5 exp) with Current Conditions (50.1 vs 53.4 exp vs 55.8 prior) and Expectations (46.1 vs 50.2 exp vs 51.7 prior)...
Source: Bloomberg
That is a record low for the headline sentiment and Current Conditions and lowest print for Expectations since 1980.
Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall.
One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April.
Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025, but longer-term expectations rose only modestly...
Of course, it's Democrats that are 'panicans' once again at inflation (Dems +4.8%, Reps +1.0%)...
One thing of note in that chart - how is the overall inflation expectation screaming higher (to equal Democrats' view) with the actual breakdown by political cohort showing no huge rise?
Finally, on the potential bright side, UMich Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu notes that "98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated."
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 10:12
In a huge and very positive development, Russia's President Vladimir Putin has announced a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, or Pascha, which is this weekend. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has immediately confirmed that Ukraine will honor the holiday truce.
"We proceed on the basis that the Ukrainian side will follow the example of the Russian Federation," the Kremlin then further confirmed in a statement.
Pravoslavie.Ru
Based on regional media reporting of the rare ceasefire, the pause in fighting will begin at 4pm Moscow time (13:00GMT) on Saturday and run until midnight on Sunday.
This will cover the whole period of Pascha celebrations in both countries, which is done according to the Julian calendar and thus typically comes a weekend or two later that Western Easter (on the Gregorian calendar). The overwhelming majorities of both countries are adherents of the Eastern Orthodox Church.
Typically in orthodox churches there is a long Saturday morning service, and then the main liturgy comes at midnight - going into the early Sunday morning hours, followed by feasting and breaking the Lenten fast. And then late Sunday morning or early after noon there is another service, after which there is more celebratory feasting.
Russian media reports that Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has instructed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to halt Russian military operations during the period; however, just like in past short truces Russia says it will respond immediately to any 'violations' observed.
Zelensky meanwhile confirmed that "Ukraine has repeatedly stated that we are ready for reciprocal steps. We proposed a ceasefire during the Easter holiday this year and will act accordingly."
"People need an Easter without threats and a real move towards peace, and Russia has a chance not to return to attacks even after Easter," he added.
Such a holiday truce has been tried in the past, but is typically marred by frontline 'violations' and tit-for-tat accusations and denunciations.
But this year, after well over four years of brutal fighting which has taken likely hundreds of thousands of lives, there is a good chance the Easter truce will hold given the sheer exhaustion and war-weariness on each side.
Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill at the Christ the Savior Cathedral. Creative Commons photo, prior illustrative
What's more is that if there is success, it could provide the basis for something more lasting, as both sides say they are still interested in hammering out a permanent end to the war. But for Moscow, this will require that Ukraine cede much of the east and give political recognition too, including over Crimea.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 10:00Without providing any elaboration or context, President Trump just posted the following to his social media feed:
No idea what he is talking about?
Pressure on China (multiple chokepoints on energy supply)?
Chatter on Russia-Ukraine talks?
America First, maybe?
4-D Chess or another fantastical plan?
Any ideas?
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 09:46Apple is permanently closing three mall-based stores in the coming months: Apple North County in California, Apple Trumbull in Connecticut, and Apple Towson Town Center in Maryland, which is the company's first unionized store.
"Following the departure of several retailers and declining conditions at Trumbull Mall, the Shops at North County, and Towson Town Center, we've made the difficult decision to close our stores at these locations," Apple told computer blog AppleInsider in a statement.
Most workers will be transferred to nearby stores if they choose to remain with Apple, while unionized Towson employees will need to apply for open roles under the current bargaining agreement.
Apple wouldn't provide additional color on what exactly those "declining conditions" were, such as whether they involved a slowdown in foot traffic or thefts.
Focusing on the unionized Towson location, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers reacted furiously to Apple's decision. The move suggests that Tim Cook has little interest in bending the knee to lefty union pressure.
APPLE STORE CLOSURES | Apple announced its closing 3 locations, inside malls or shopping plazas across the country, on Thursday.
— Tori Yorgey WBAL (@toriyorgeytv) April 10, 2026
1/3 locations is Towson Town Center. The union representing the workers in Towson says they’re outraged. Doors set to close on June 11. @wbaltv11 pic.twitter.com/M9m3CZnqYQ
"The IAM Union is outraged by Apple's decision to close its Towson, Md., store — the first unionized Apple retail location in the United States — and abandon both its workers and a community that relies on it for critical services and its unique access to public transit," the union wrote in a statement to the outlet.
IAM continued:
Apple's claim that the collective bargaining agreement prevents relocation is simply false and raises serious concerns that this closure is a cynical attempt to bust the union.
We are exploring all legal options and will work with elected officials and allies to hold Apple accountable. We stand with our IAM Coalition of Organized Retail Employees (IAM CORE) members and the community that depends on this store for essential access and support."
Apple appears to be sending a very clear message to workers considering the union route: go down that path, and you may end up like the Towson store.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 09:45Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,
Humanity’s first mission around the Moon in more than 50 years is coming home the way of a meteor.
NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch—as well as Jeremy Hansen of the Canadian Space Agency—will reenter Earth’s atmosphere in their Orion spacecraft Integrity at approximately 7:53 p.m. on April 10.
Artemis II’s 10-day journey beyond the moon to the farthest point away from Earth that humans have traveled will end with the astronauts’ ride in a fireball through the sky and splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego at approximately 8:07 p.m.
This is the pinnacle of the adventure that Glover has been thinking about since he got assigned to the mission on April 3, 2023, and NASA officials have been thinking about it since even before that.
After Artemis I, the Orion spacecraft’s heat shield and reentry trajectory went through a drastic redesign.
NASA’s associate administrator, Amit Kshatriya, affirmed on April 9 that the crew and everyone involved were confident in Integrity’s systems.
Reentry TimelineNASA’s Rick Henfling will be the flight director at mission control during reentry and splashdown, and he outlined the course of events ahead of the mission’s dramatic conclusion.
11:35 a.m. EDT—The crew will wake up and start their day. They will make final preparations and configure the cabin for reentry as Integrity gets closer to home and travels faster and faster.
Those preparations include donning the orange-and-blue pressure suits they wore for launch and stowing all remaining loose equipment for reentry. One final course correction burn is also scheduled.
7:33 p.m.—Integrity’s Orion crew module will separate from its European Service module—the deep-space workhorse that kept Artemis II on course, provided power and life support, and offered exterior vantage points from which photographs were taken and shared with the world.
Shortly after separation, the crew capsule will fire its own thrusters to optimize its reentry angle and distance itself from the service module, which is now doomed and will burn up in the atmosphere.
7:53 p.m.—Integrity starts its reentry at an altitude of 400,000 feet, nearly 2,000 miles southwest of its landing zone in the Pacific Ocean. The astronauts will be falling backward, so the capsule’s heat shield is facing forward, and upside down, so the crew can see the horizon line.
An infographic featuring the Artemis II Orion lofted entry sequence, presented by Artemis II Flight Director Rick Henfling during the mission status briefing to the media and public at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston on April 8, 2026. NASA
The spacecraft must hit the Earth’s atmosphere at the right angle to pass through safely.
Fight director Jeff Radigan told reporters on April 9 that Mission Control was continuing to review data and telemetry to ensure that Artemis II remains on course.
“We got less than a degree of angle that we need to hit,” Radigan said. “We’ve got a little bit of wiggle room. We don’t plan to use that.”
Artemis II is expected to reach a top speed of 34,965 feet per second, approximately 23,864 mph, just short of the mission’s overall top speed of approximately 24,500 mph.
This means they will fail to break Apollo 10’s record-setting speed of 36,397 feet per second, or 24,816 mph.
Radigan told The Epoch Times that Artmeis II’s return home would be very similar to the Apollo mission that came before it. They are essentially coming straight down and much faster compared with reentries from low-Earth orbit.
Integrity will essentially become a man-made meteor, engulfed in a ball of fire and plasma and facing temperatures of up to 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit as it rips through the atmosphere.
The crew inside is expected to experience g-forces of 3.9. That is 3.9 times the force of normal gravity on Earth.
However, Henfling said that type of g-force would be experienced during a nominal trajectory. If the crew had to take any of the contingency trajectories mapped out, they could experience g-forces of up to 7.5.
Their capsule will perform multiple roll reversal maneuvers to distribute heat evenly across the heat shield and help slow down.
However, they will not be piloting the capsule. Radigan confirmed that although the crew has been trained and is capable of taking control if necessary, Integrity’s computer will fly the crew home.
Mission Control expects to lose contact with Integrity 24 seconds after entry interface.
Henfling said that as plasma builds up around the spacecraft, it interferes with telemetry. That blackout is expected to last about six minutes.
7:59 p.m.—Integrity will reacquire signal with Mission Control and will be down to an altitude of about 150,000 feet and falling.
About nine minutes into reentry, Earth’s atmosphere will slow the Orion capsule to subsonic speeds.
8:03 p.m.—Integrity drops to about 22,000 feet, and drogue parachutes deploy.
At about 6,000 feet, the main parachutes will deploy.
8:07 p.m.—Artemis II splashes down in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego. In 13 minutes, Integrity will have slowed from approximately 25,000 mph to just 20 mph.
8:22 p.m.—Wiseman, Glover, Koch, and Hansen power down Integrity.
Recovery OperationsArtemis II will be recovered in a joint operation between NASA and the Department of War. The USS John P. Murtha, the recovery ship, left port in San Diego on April 7 to assume its position and await recovery.
The targeted time to extract the astronauts from the capsule is 9:06 p.m.
The USS John P. Murtha pictured with an Orion crew capsule during a recovery test in preparation for NASA’s Artemis I uncrewed test flight on March 14, 2020. NASA
Debbie Korth, Orion deputy program manager, said the goal is to have the crew out of the capsule and on the recovery ship within two hours after splashdown.
They will also have several aircraft circling the area to get eyes on the returning craft as soon as possible.
Divers will arrive on-scene first and open the hatch.
Medical personnel will then enter the capsule to assess the crew. Hansen will be reached first, followed by Wiseman, then Koch, and Glover.
Once everyone is cleared by the medics, Koch will be the first to leave the capsule, followed by Glover, then Hansen.
Wiseman, Artemis II’s commander, will be the last to step outside.
The crew will then be lifted into helicopters and transferred to the recovery ship in the same order they left Integrity.
Once aboard, they will be taken to a medical bay for further evaluation.
That whole process is expected to take at least 40 minutes.
Meanwhile, teams will remain on-site to secure Integrity, which will be towed aboard the recovery ship via its amphibious transport dock.
The crew is scheduled to fly back to Johnson Space Center in Houston between 12 and 24 hours after recovery, and their Orion capsule will be trucked across the country to Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
All of the remaining science the crew collected, including images yet to be downlinked and the biological experiments, such as the AVATAR project, which flew on board to learn how deep space affects human health, will be sent off to their respective teams for analysis.
“We have to get back,” Glover said during a call with the media on April 8. “There’s so much data that you’ve seen already, but all of the good stuff is coming back with us.”
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 09:30Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson, known for his dollar milkshake theory, had an ominous warning at last evening’s ZH debate: Even if the war is settled (and there’s no guarantee of that), baked in supply shocks could be very bad for agriculture. This comes as just yesterday, Mises Institute’s Connor O’Keefe warned of “a time bomb in global food markets”.
… and Brent is the dollar bull.
Johnson joined Marc “Dr. Doom” Faber and Thoughtful Money’s Adam Taggart to debate what comes after the tenuous ceasefire that Trump has brokered with Iran. Major win for the U.S. and the dollar or simply relative mitigation of a pointless blunder?
Below were key points by Dr. Doom and the Milkshake man, though we highly recommend the full discussion for those with time:
Inflation for thee but not for meMarc Faber’s argument centered on a disconnect between official inflation data and lived experience… something the war, even if concluded promptly, will only exacerbate. While the legendary “shadowstats” is no longer updated, it last had May ‘23 real inflation at 8% annually, double the government’s reported figure of 4%.
Faber rejects low headline figures:
“I don't believe that anywhere in the world the rate of inflation was like around 2% (pre-war). This is complete nonsense. Open the invoices of your insurance company! Insurance premiums are going up by something like 10%… everywhere the prices are up.”
Average households cannot sustain such strain for long. In Faber’s view, a large share of the population is financially stretched: “around 70% of Americans… live paycheck to paycheck.” Income barely covers expenses, leaving little margin for shocks. “This is sort of like a modern slavery… people are… anxiously waiting for the salaries to pay their debts.”
Faber’s slavery analogy extends to the K-shaped economy, where wealthy asset owners see massive booms in their on-paper wealth while Joe six-pack (with no assets) just sees his gas and groceries go up:
“My outlook for the economy was already, before the war in Iran, was not favorable… the financial markets have gone into the sky and the real economy of people is flat on its back.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) April 9, 2026Fertilizer > Oil
Brent Johnson framed the debate around power as opposed to market forces: “If the United States is going to lose dominance, somebody else has to take it.” He pointed to the U.S.-Israeli assassination of Iran’s head of state and the lack of global pushback as evidence that U.S. global influence remains intact for now.
“Nobody has done anything to stop it.”
He does not claim the month-long U.S. operation will be a success. “That could very well be a huge miscalculation… [but] it might work.” Outcomes are not predetermined, and states still use force to pursue objectives, “countries do use military force to get what they want… I understand why they did it… and how it could possibly work.”
Largely a dollar bull, Johnson still sees pain on the horizon for all fiat holders. ”We are going to get at least a short-term inflationary impulse… a pretty severe [one]... it may hit the United States the least… it’s going to hurt the rest of the world more.”
“We're just now going to be in the summer driving season here pretty soon and gasoline and energy prices are already up… that could dramatically negatively affect the US economy.”
Beyond energy, the underappreciated yet vital product that must flow through the Strait of Hormuz: fertilizers and chemicals.
“The bigger impact that I worry about is the fact that fertilizers and chemicals also get transited through the Strait of Hormuz. And the timing of this happening is impacting the planting season for both the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere and the winter planting season in the Southern Hemisphere. It's my expectation that even if the strait fully opens tomorrow, which it won't… There's going to be a four to six week period where most ships don't arrive…”
The result: civil unrest.
“That is going to have a material impact on food prices. Six to nine months down the road. Once you get food price rises and food shocks, then you get social shocks. Then you get people out in the streets chanting ‘death to everyone’ not just ‘death to America’.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) April 9, 2026
Listen to their full remarks and learn which cigarettes Dr. Doom smokes in the full debate below. Watch on the ZeroHedge X feed, Taggart’s Thoughtful Money YouTube channel, or listen on the ZH Spotify.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 9, 2026
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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 09:00US equity futures are flat, recovering from an earlier drop, and set to extend a seven-day rally, the longest since October, as investors looked to talks between the US and Iran for signs a fragile truce can hold while bracing for a big jump in today's CPI report (full preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.1%,on track for their biggest weekly advance in almost a year. Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%, its winning streak is the longest since September, led once again memory stocks while Mag 7 were mixed (NVDA -0.5% and MSFT +0.5%). Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% as Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia expressed optimism about peace talks. Overnight, headlines were mostly quiet as investors continue assessing the negotiation progress between the US and Iran. Hormuz and Lebanon remains the two key focuses. Meanwhile, a BBG headline this morning saying that Ukraine may be near a deal with Putin drove futs modestly higher; gold trades flat around $4,765. Bond yields are unchanged to 1-2bp lower, the 10Y TSY trading at 4.29%; oil is 1% higher to $98.6; base metals are mostly lower. Brent crude was steady at near $96 a barrel but on pace for its steepest weekly loss in nine months. On today's calendar, we have March CPI due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by factory orders for February and final readings for February durable/cap goods at 10 a.m. University of Michigan Sentiment also due at 10 a.m.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher (Microsoft +0.2%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.2%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia -0.1%)
In other corporate news, an earnings beat by CATL may set the stage for a short squeeze, after a surge in the battery maker’s shares on bets tied to soaring energy prices. Lumentum said demand from the biggest US tech companies for its optical components is accelerating and on track to fill its order books through 2028. AI is also on traders’ radars this Friday. TSMC reported a 35% increase in quarterly revenue, suggesting ongoing global chip demand remains intact. China AI firm Sharetronic procured hundreds of Super Micro systems containing banned high-end Nvidia chips. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell summoned Wall Street bank CEOs to discuss Anthropic’s new AI to discuss cyber risks.
Anticipation of weekend talks between the US and Iran following this week’s ceasefire agreement are keeping markets on edge. The longest winning run for the S&P 500 since October looks set to be tested as traders prepare for CPI data before attention turns to US-Iran discussions in Islamabad at the weekend. The truce announced on Tuesday remains shaky, with Kuwait reporting large-scale drone attacks on “vital” facilities overnight and accusing Iran and its proxy groups of violating the terms of the agreement.
Israel continued to target towns in south Lebanon, where its parallel campaign against Tehran-backed Hezbollah threatens to undermine negotiations. “I’m not trimming into the weekend,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA. “The direction of travel seems to be to talk rather than to fight.”
The latest tone in markets suggests some optimism negotiators from Washington and Tehran will make progress on longer term de-escalation, despite the remaining points of tension. Whatever the outcome, there are plenty of supply chain bottlenecks and delayed consequences still to work through. Daily commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to zero. The “Trillion Dollar War” is weighing on global economic outlooks, note Bloomberg Economists whose global growth tracker – which uses a machine-learning algorithm to extract signals from data for 18 advanced and EM economies – points to an abrupt reversal, after a build-up in momentum at the start of the year. “Investors are hoping for fruitful negotiations,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. Still, “a swift conclusion will be difficult to achieve, as economic interests prevail on all sides and no one wants to be disadvantaged,” he said.
Oil remains in focus. Saudi Arabia said its production capacity has been reduced by attacks on energy infrastructure. WTI could hold at $100 a barrel - or higher - for longer if disruptions to tanker traffic keep global crude flows constrained, Bloomberg notes pointing to a surge in net long crude futures amid oil’s widening risk premium.
“We believe this could be the beginning of the end, and is presenting an opportunity for investors to focus on pre-war trends and fundamentals,” Bernstein analysts Rupal Agarwal and Cheng Zhang wrote in a note.
Some investors are not convinced that the ceasefire marks the end of trouble for financial markets. Crude remains over $90 a barrel, a level that threatens to drive inflation and suppress economic growth. “I’m not very optimistic at all,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer of Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore. “Overall, our sense is that the sustained premium in crude is not reflected yet in profit margins, and that ought to contribute to a higher equity risk premium.”
The March CPI report is expected to show gasoline prices drove the fastest monthly increase in the headline gauge in almost four years, while core CPI will likely remain tame. The Cleveland Fed nowcast point to headline CPI of around 3.25% Y/Y in March (vs an actual 2.4% in February), though core inflation should be steadier at around 2.5% Y/Y, suggesting the March strength is likely to come from fuel and other energy-related components rather than a broad-based underlying inflation surge. Wall street upside estimates are even more aggressive, with median expectations for headline CPI surging from 0.3% MoM to 0.9%, and from 2.4% to 3.4% YoY. (Our full preview is here).
“Headline risk pertaining to the war remains far and away the biggest driver of volatility,” Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “However, inflation data also presents meaningful event risk.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% as Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia expressed optimism about peace talks, stocks are led by construction and media. Markets received an additional boost from news of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, though that dented defense stocks. Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli jumped after impressive results, while Sodexo’s disappointing guidance weighed on its stock. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
Asian stocks advanced, posting their biggest weekly gain since November 2022, as a ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a relief rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, taking its weekly increase to 6%. Chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix were among biggest boosts to the gauge Friday. Indonesia’s benchmark jumped 2%, leading gains around the region, followed by Taiwan, mainland China and South Korea. The week’s advance signals a return of risk appetite across Asian markets after steep losses in March on concerns over the war. Still, uncertainty remains over the chances for lasting peace and the trajectory for oil prices.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.1%, snapping a four-day decline. The gauge has still dropped 1.2% this week, headed for its worst performance since January. The yen edged lower against the dollar; Japanese bonds dropped amid expectations for a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says authorities are prepared to take action on all fronts in markets, considering the impact of currency moves on households and the economy.
In rates, US treasuries were on track to snap a four-day run of gains as investors await March US inflation data due later Friday to see the impact of higher oil prices from the Iran war. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, with yields off session highs in early US trading ahead of March CPI report expected to show the biggest monthly headline increase in almost four years, driven by gasoline prices. US yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, 10-year by 1.8bp near 4.29%; German and UK counterparts lag by 3bp and 4bp respectively. In Europe, bonds slide as traders add to rate-hike bets again, with European and UK 10-year yields rising between four and seven basis points and German 30-year yields hitting the highest since 2011. Ahead of CPI data, Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 6 basis points of easing by the end of the year and fully price in a quarter-point move by September 2027
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are little changed after erasing a 2.6% increase. Brent trades close to $97/barrel and WTI around $98. Gold prices drifting lower to around $4,750/oz.
The US economic data calendar includes March CPI (8:30am), February factory orders, April preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and March federal budget balance (2pm)
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
President Trump on Thursday demanded Iran stop charging tolls for tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran's supreme leader promised the country would control the crucial waterway. Axios
The truce remained shaky, as Kuwait reported overnight drone attacks. Israel is preparing for talks with Lebanon but said it’ll continue strikes on Hezbollah, with Trump’s push for an exit straining relations. BBG
President Donald Trump told NBC News on Thursday that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal with Iran was within reach as a diplomatic delegation led by Vice President JD Vance prepared to head to Pakistan for high-stakes talks aimed at ending the nearly six-week conflict. NBC
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s top negotiator with Russia said he sees Ukraine nearing a peace deal with Vladimir Putin. “They all understand the war needs to end,” Kyrylo Budanov said in an April 4 interview with Bloomberg. BBG
While every administration crafts its own defense strategy, Trump’s second is making the unusual move of discarding a policy that was formulated by his first. That bipartisan approach sanctioned by Trump 1.0 characterized China as the most consequential U.S. adversary. The Trump 2.0 framework is instead a seismic shift in U.S. policy, trade practices and rhetoric toward Beijing driven by a new mantra: Don’t rock the boat. WSJ
China made a rare diplomatic foray in the Iran war, nudging Tehran to agree to sit down for talks with the U.S. Beijing’s role wasn’t decisive, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping now has something valuable: diplomatic capital with President Trump. WSJ
China's factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years in March, in an early sign that the war in Iran is feeding cost pressures into the world’s second-largest economy. China’s PPI came in a bit firmer than anticipated at +0.5% Y/Y (vs. the Street +0.4% and up from -0.9% in Feb) while the CPI ran a touch cooler at +1% (vs. the Street +1.1% and down from +1.3% in Feb). RTRS
Trump administration reportedly considering a new crackdown on Chinese telecom Carriers' US operations, according to the agency.
Artificial intelligence lab Anthropic is exploring the possibility of designing its own chips, three sources said, as the company and its rivals respond to a shortage of AI chips needed to power and develop more advanced AI systems. Also, Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street CEOs to warn of potential cyber risks from Anthropic’s new AI model and others. RTRS, BBG
CPI Preview: We expect a 0.28% increase in March core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.69% (vs. +2.7% consensus). We expect a 0.87% increase in headline CPI (vs. +1.0% consensus), reflecting sharply higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.23% increase in core PCE in March. Goldman
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall Street, where markets extended on the ceasefire-driven momentum, although strikes continued in the region and Israel declared it will keep striking Lebanon ahead of talks next week. Furthermore, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill, and US President Trump criticised Iran on the Strait of Hormuz and warned it to stop charging tolls in the strait. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and energy, while nearly all sectors were lacklustre, aside from the mild resilience seen in real estate and financials. Nikkei 225 rallied with index heavyweight Fast Retailing among the top gainers after its shares surged to fresh record highs following strong earnings results, while participants also reflected on PPI data, which ultimately printed mixed, but showed an acceleration for both the M/M and Y/Y figures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid some strength in tech, property and auto stocks, while the latest inflation data for China was mixed as CPI printed softer-than-expected, but PPI slightly topped forecasts and showed a return to growth in factory gate prices for the first time in more than three years.
Top Asian News
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are gaining heading into the US-Iran talks at the weekend. If indices can hold onto their gains, it would be the first Friday since the Iran war began that stocks would end in the green. The complex has been fairly choppy this morning, with some pressure seen alongside a slight bid in the crude complex, but then reversed those losses after reports suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin. European sectors are broadly in the green. Media, Health Care and Technology tops the sector pile while Basic Resources and Travel and Leisure lags. The tech sector has been given a boost after TSMC reported YTD sales that beat estimates, supporting the likes of ASML and STMicroelectronics. On the other hand, Travel and Leisure is under pressure following earnings by Sodexo, in which the Co. cut its 2026 organic revenue growth forecast, citing ongoing execution challenges. US equity futures (ES/NQ U/C, RTY -0.1%) are posting modest losses ahead of the US CPI later, in which headline inflation is expected at 3.3% Y/Y, rising from 2.4% while core inflation also expected to rise to 2.7% Y/Y from 2.5%.
Top European News
FX
Fixed Income
Commodities
Central Banks
Geopolitics: Iran
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Geopolitics: Other
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The market tone has remained positive this morning, with oil prices steady and fresh gains for global equities ahead of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad tomorrow. Indeed, the S&P 500 (+0.62%) has now risen for 7 consecutive sessions, with futures on the index (+0.01%) just about pointing towards an 8th gain today. Moreover, oil prices have been steady overnight too, with Brent at $96.23/bbl currently, slightly beneath its levels 24 hours ago. And notably, the VIX index (-1.55pts) closed at just 19.49pts yesterday, falling beneath its pre-strike level of 19.86pts on February 27. So for markets at least, the financial stress has continued to ease before the weekend talks.
The main catalyst for that risk-on move was the announcement yesterday that Israel would start direct talks with Lebanon "as soon as possible", and President Trump said shortly after that Israel was “scaling back” its operations in Lebanon. That’s significant because Lebanon has been a potential key stumbling block around the ceasefire, with Israel issuing evacuation orders in eight neighbourhoods of Beirut yesterday, whilst Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the attacks were a “clear violation” of the ceasefire agreement. So those hopes for a de-escalation in Lebanon helped ease concerns that the broader ceasefire could fall apart ahead of this weekend’s talks.
In general, the tone around the US-Iran talks has remained positive, with Trump telling NBC news yesterday that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal was within reach. He also added that Iran’s leaders “talk much differently when you’re at a meeting than they do to the press. They’re much more reasonable”. That said, he made a couple of more negative posts about Iran yesterday evening, warning that Iran “better not be” charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that “if they are, they better stop now!” And just over an hour later, he then posted that “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”
Nevertheless, markets in Asia have posted further gains overnight, with all the major indices advancing. That includes the Nikkei (+1.77%), the KOSPI (+1.81%), the CSI 300 (+1.18%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.63%) and the Hang Seng (+0.60%). There’ve also been a few stories from the region, with China’s PPI inflation moving back into positive territory in March for the first time since September 2022. The latest release showed PPI at +0.5% (vs. +0.4% expected), although CPI fell back slightly to +1.0% (vs. +1.1% expected). Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea held rates at 2.5% as expected, although their statement said that CPI this year “is expected to exceed considerably the February forecast of 2.2%”.
Against that backdrop, oil prices have been pretty steady, with Brent crude currently up +0.23% overnight at $96.23/bbl. That builds on a modest gain yesterday, when Brent had risen +1.23% ot $95.92/bbl. Even at the intraday high yesterday, shortly before the news on the Israel-Lebanon talks broke, Brent only got up to $99.50/bbl, remaining beneath the $100/bbl mark throughout. So there’s been a clear shift in sentiment since the two-week ceasefire announcement, when oil prices were back at $110/bbl, with the overall market tone still a lot more confident than it was at the start of the week. In addition, 12-month Brent futures have continued to fall, with a -0.17% decline yesterday to $76.74/bbl, and a further -0.30% decline overnight to $76.51/bbl.
Although oil prices have come down since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns are still pretty high right now, meaning that all eyes will be on today’s US CPI print for March. That’s an important one, because it’s the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on February 28, and we know from the Euro Area flash CPI print that the energy price spike is now clearly visible in the data. For today, our US economists are expecting a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March. If realised, that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022, and it would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, which we haven’t seen since early 2024. Then for core CPI, they expect a smaller uptick given it excludes energy and food prices, with the monthly core print up to +0.33%, and the year-on-year measure at +2.7%.
Ahead of that release, US markets had a volatile session yesterday as the geopolitical headlines came through. Ultimately however, the prospect of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon led to a recovery through the session, with the S&P 500 (+0.62%) closing at a one-month high. In fact, it was the index’s 7th consecutive gain, which left it less than 2.5% beneath its record high from late-January. The Magnificent 7 (+1.58%) led that advance yesterday, but there were gains across the board, while software & services (-2.18%) and energy (-1.19%) being the only industry groups in the S&P 500 to post major declines. Moreover, the geopolitical news meant investors grew more confident that the Fed might still cut rates this year, with markets pricing in a 33% likelihood of a cut by the December meeting by yesterday’s close. That’s the highest probability of a 2026 cut in the last three weeks, which helped 10yr Treasury yields (-1.7bps) to come down to 4.28%.
Earlier in Europe, markets had seen a relative underperformance, with bonds and equities paring back their very strong gains from the Wednesday session. In part, that was driven by more concerns about the European inflation outlook, given its relative exposure to higher oil prices, and the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+12.2bps) moved back up to 3.23% by the close. So that led to a pickup in yields across the board, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.4bps), OATs (+3.3bps) and BTPs (+3.1bps) all moving higher. And there was a decent pullback for equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (-0.15%) and the DAX (-1.14%) both losing ground.
Finally, we did get a fresh batch of US data yesterday, although much of it was backward looking for the period before the Iran conflict began. The main highlight was the PCE inflation for February, which is the Fed’s target measure. That came in as expected, with headline and core PCE both at +0.4% on the month, in line with consensus. So for headline PCE, that kept the year-on-year measure at +2.8%, whilst core PCE fell back a tenth to +3.0%. Or in other words, inflation was still lingering above the Fed’s 2% target even before the latest energy shock. Otherwise, we also had the weekly initial jobless claims, which rose by more than expected to 219k in the week ending April 4 (vs. 210k expected). And looking even further back, Q4 GDP growth was revised down again in the third estimate, with the latest reading showing an annualised rate of just +0.5% (vs. +0.7% in the second estimate).
Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the March CPI print, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April, and factory orders for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 08:25Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,
Blockstream CEO Adam Back pushed back on concerns that quantum computing poses an imminent threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, arguing that current progress in the field remains far from the level required to break real-world encryption.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Back noted that much of today’s quantum research is still in its early experimental phase. He pointed to the limited capabilities of existing quantum hardware, which often lacks full error correction and has only demonstrated trivial computations.
“The biggest calculation it’s performed is factoring 21 into 7 times 3,” he said, emphasizing that today’s machines remain closer to laboratory prototypes than practical computing systems.
While recent academic work has highlighted potential algorithmic improvements, Back argued that these advances do not yet translate into meaningful hardware capability.
As a result, he said, the prospect of quantum computers capable of threatening Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography remains “decades off,” though he acknowledged uncertainty around exact timelines.
Earlier today, Adam Back was named by the New York Times as the most credible candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto based on stylometric analysis of early cypherpunk writings, but Back and other experts strongly denied the claim, noting there is no hard evidence linking him to Bitcoin’s creation.
Bitcoin should prepare for quantum computing risksDespite that long horizon, Back stressed that the Bitcoin ecosystem should begin preparing now. He advocated for a gradual migration path toward quantum-resistant signature schemes, giving users and custodians ample time to update keys and infrastructure without disruption.
He noted that Blockstream’s research team has been actively working on post-quantum approaches and has already contributed implementations to Liquid, a Bitcoin layer-two network that has historically served as a testing ground for new features.
Back also referenced recent progress in standardization efforts, pointing to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s approval of post-quantum cryptography standards in late 2024 as a key milestone that could accelerate industry adoption.
Beyond quantum computing, Back dismissed concerns that artificial intelligence or artificial general intelligence pose structural risks to Bitcoin, characterizing AI instead as a productivity tool that can assist researchers and engineers rather than compromise cryptographic systems.
Shifting to Bitcoin’s global role, Back described the asset as best understood as “digital gold,” coexisting alongside national monetary systems rather than replacing them. He pointed to ongoing sovereign interest in Bitcoin, including debates around national reserves and monetary frameworks in countries such as El Salvador, as evidence of gradual institutional adoption. He also referenced discussions in Switzerland about monetary reform and the historical appeal of gold-backed standards.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 07:20E. & J. Gallo Winery, the largest wine producer in the United States and the world by volume, has completed a major pivot into hard liquor. The family-owned giant finalized its acquisition of iconic Kentucky bourbon brand Four Roses from Japan’s Kirin Holdings in a deal valued at up to $775 million. The move comes as the U.S. wine industry grapples with steep declines in sales and a generational shift away from traditional wine - especially among younger Americans.
The transaction, which closed on April 2, 2026, returns Four Roses - which was founded in 1888 and long regarded as one of the most respected premium bourbons - to American ownership for the first time in 83 years. Gallo’s chief commercial officer, Britt West, called the brand “one of the most respected bourbons in the world defined by heritage and craftsmanship," adding "We are committed to upholding Four Roses’ quality and building the brand as a cornerstone of our portfolio through increased consumer and trade engagement, innovation, and global expansion."
The existing Four Roses team, including master distiller Brent Elliott, will remain in place. The brand’s first release under new ownership - a boutique 100-proof bourbon - is expected to hit shelves by May.
The timing is no coincidence. Just two months before the deal closed, Gallo laid off approximately 93–100 workers and permanently shuttered its large Ranch Winery production facility in Napa Valley’s St. Helena.
Louis M. Martini Winery in St. Helena, pictured in 2022, is one of the locations impacted by Gallo's layoffs. Jessica Christian/The Chronicle
The cuts also hit other premium labels, including the Louis M. Martini Winery and Orin Swift Tasting Room. Earlier, the company closed its Courtside Cellars facility in San Luis Obispo County, letting go of 47 workers.
Gallo’s struggles mirror a broader crisis in American wine. Overall alcohol consumption in the U.S. has hit a historic low: just 54% of adults reported drinking in 2025, down from 62% in 2023 - the lowest level in Gallup’s nearly 90-year tracking.
Younger drinkers are leading the exodus. Only about 50% of Americans aged 18 to 34 said they drink alcohol in the latest Gallup poll, a sharp acceleration of a decade-long trend. Health-conscious Baby Boomers are also cutting back on wine. In their place, many consumers - particularly younger ones - are choosing spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails, and lower-alcohol or non-alcoholic alternatives.
Gallo, which already sells popular spirits such as New Amsterdam vodka, E&J brandy, and the blockbuster canned cocktail brand High Noon, is betting big that premium bourbon can help offset the wine slump. Four Roses, the eighth-largest bourbon producer globally and a consistent award winner, gives Gallo a strong foothold in the faster-growing spirits category and international markets.
Kirin, meanwhile, is exiting the spirits business to focus on other growth areas. For Gallo, the purchase is a clear signal: when wine demand shrinks, the world’s biggest winemaker isn’t doubling down on grapes - it’s turning to barrels.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 06:55My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:
• The AI Jobs Scare Meets 250 Years of Data: What does history show? The economic stories of transformative technologies often display two important elements. 1) A rough patch at some point; 2) Business productivity (eventually) surged, living standards climbed, and the prophets of permanent technological unemployment turned out to be wrong. Two and a half centuries of technological disruption tell the same story: expect a rough patch, then expect more jobs than before. The AI doomers might want to crack a history book. (AEI)
• A New Geopolitical Reality Is Here: The Iran conflict has crystallized a new world order. The old assumptions about American hegemony, alliance structures, and deterrence are being rewritten in real time. (The Atlantic) see also How Trump went from threatening Iran’s annihilation to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire in a day: From genocidal rhetoric to ceasefire in 24 hours—the whiplash foreign policy of a president who governs by impulse. The world is supposed to take this seriously. (PBS NewsHour)
• The Investment Excitement Ratio: A new framework combining valuation, concentration and capex; and why today looks like past manias. (Behind the Balance Sheet)
• Ozempic just got cheap enough to change the world: India’s generic semaglutide is about to blow open the global obesity market. When the world’s most transformative drug gets cheap, the public health implications are staggering. (Vox)
• Welcome to the Longevity Tourism Boom: $25,000 gene-therapy injections are in. Regular doctors are out. And it could take us all to a dark place. (Slate)
• Some Contemporary Heresies: I define a heresy as: something you believe that the people you most admire and respect don’t believe and reject out of hand. (Kevin Kelly)
• Risks for Europe of US dominance of global asset management: US firms’ rise in EU asset management may weaken sustainable finance, making tougher stewardship, ESMA supervision and autonomy urgent. (Bruegel)
• The Secret to Stronger Friendships: Ask Better Questions.If you want to feel closer to your friends, you don’t need to overhaul your social life. Instead, experts suggest a small, manageable shift: Ask one deeper-than-usual question the next time you talk. Over time, that habit can change the tone of your conversations—and your relationships. (Time)
• The twilight of America’s sky knights: The mightiest military force in Christendom rode to war in 1420. The parallels to American air power’s current trajectory are uncomfortable and illuminating. Fighter jets are an anachronism. (UnHerd)
• How “Project Hail Mary” turns hardcore science into page-turning drama Andy Weir’s novel blends humor, scientific rigor, and human ingenuity to make science fiction feel genuinely believable. (Big Think)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group (PMG) and member of the Global Executive Committee. He helps oversee $5 trillion in client assets across systematic & discretionary strategies as well as directly overseeing PMG’s hedge funds platform. He also heads the BlackRock Investment Institute.
Left vs. Right (US)
Source: Information is Beautiful
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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
In a jaw-dropping display of reality inversion, Sweden’s state-owned public transport company SL has rolled out a new advert that casts loud, obnoxious white women as the problem on buses while depicting black men as the silent, long-suffering victims politely minding their own business.
The short video, now going viral, shows a smiling blonde woman named “Anita” glued to her phone watching TikTok at full blast with no headphones, laughing and disrupting everyone around her.
It then cuts to a young black man named “Samir” quietly using his phone with headphones, looking visibly annoyed as he adjusts them and glances her way. On-screen text reads: “Anita älskar Tiktok” (“Anita loves TikTok”) and “Samir också. Med hörlurar” (“Samir too. With headphones”).
In Sweden they have released an advert where White Women are loud and annoying on public transport and Black men are the one's being quiet and upset about this
— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) April 8, 2026
The anti-white propaganda is unbelievable pic.twitter.com/3onCm1xk2a
Yeah, because this always happens like this on buses and trains doesn’t it.
The official campaign is designed to push “good manners” on public transport. Yet instead of reflecting the well-known cultural differences in public behavior, it flips the script entirely to hammer home the approved narrative: native Swedes (especially white women) are the rude ones, while migrants, or those with migrant backgrounds, are the model citizens.
This latest stunt comes just weeks after we covered a near-identical case of woke hypocrisy in the UK. In February, Transport for London’s “Act Like a Friend” campaign produced multiple ads showing harassment on public transport. One featured a black teenage boy verbally harassing a white girl on a bus.
The Advertising Standards Authority banned that specific clip after just one complaint, ruling it “perpetuated a negative racial stereotype about black men as perpetrators of threatening behaviour” and was “irresponsible” and “likely to cause serious offence.”
Ads in the same campaign that showed white men as the harassers sailed through without issue.
Several other recent transport ads have also depicted white men as sexual aggressors, with their victims almost always being ‘diverse’.
The pattern is now crystal clear across Europe. European authorities will censor any depiction that dares show minority crime or bad behavior – even when it is part of a broader public safety message – but they happily fund propaganda that paints native Europeans as the villains. White people must be the problem. Always. No exceptions.
The SL ad arrives at a time when Sweden’s generous immigration policies have already transformed once-peaceful cities. Public transport in Stockholm and Malmö has seen rising tensions, fights, and harassment – issues frequently tied to imported cultural norms around volume, respect for personal space, and women. Yet instead of addressing root causes, the state chooses to gaslight its own citizens with cartoonish role reversals.
Europe’s elite are not interested in integration or honest conversation. They are committed to a top-down cultural replacement project that requires constant propaganda to paper over the cracks. When the public sees the truth every day on the bus or train, the state simply rewrites the script.
The game is wearing thin. People are fed up with being told to ignore their own eyes and lived experience in favour of state-approved fiction.
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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 06:30Israel is lifting its state of emergency given that the Iran ceasefire appears to be holding, and with that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial will resume in the coming days, according to Reuters.
"With the lifting of the state of emergency and the return of the judicial system to work, hearings will resume as usual," a statement from the Israeli courts confirms.
via AFP
Hearings are scheduled to take place from Sunday through Wednesday. Of course, the fragile truce could collapse at any moment - after Netanyahu, along with Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, have pushed to extend Israel's wars. But normalcy is returning to Israel, and sirens are no longer constantly blaring out. Even Ben Gurion international airport is fully reopened.
Netanyahu has long been accused, even within Israel, of seeking to prolong Israel's 'multi-front' wars in order to permanently delay the corruption trial and ensure his time in power is extended.
The trial focuses on three corruption cases - including charges of fraud and breach of trust, as well as charges of bribery.
The allegations range from illegally receiving expensive gifts based on political favors, to quid pro quo agreements with some Israeli media sources for more favorable coverage, to authorizing telecom-related regulatory decisions to benefit friends and allies.
Israeli Shekel Closes at Highest Level Since November 1995 on Iran Ceasefire:
Netanyahu was first indicted in 2019 following years of investigation. The trial began in 2020 and faced repeated delays, including interruptions tied to the Gaza war that began in October 2023.
President Trump has on several occasions called the whole legal saga "politically motivated" and asserted that the prime minister been through a "Horror Show". He's asked for Netanyahu to be pardoned, calling it a "witch hunt".
Iran's Foreign Minister meanwhile used this development on the resumption of the trial to troll both Israel and the US...
Netanyahu's criminal trial resumes on Sun. A region-wide ceasefire, incl in Lebanon, would hasten his jailing.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 9, 2026
If the U S. wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice. We think that would be dumb but are prepared for it.
Israel's President Isaac Herzog does have the power to grant a pardon, but has so far resisted pressures from Washington.
His office has only indicated justice ministry’s pardons department will be busy collecting opinions and will submit them to the president’s legal adviser, who will eventually issue a recommendation, in a non-committal response.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 05:45Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
The UK Labour government’s new definition of “anti-Muslim hostility” – rebranded from “Islamophobia” – is being shaped by a working group where every single member has links to Islamist organisations.
The details are exposed in the Free Speech Union’s latest investigative briefing which highlights ties between the group members and the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) and Muslim Engagement and Development (MEND), groups that governments since 2009 have refused to engage with due to their extreme views.
One member, Baroness Gohir, tweeted in support of Hamas in 2014. Another stood for the far-left, Islamist-supporting Respect Party.
The Free Speech Union’s latest investigative briefing reveals that ALL FIVE members of the Government’s working group tasked with defining “Islamophobia” — now rebranded as “anti-Muslim hostility” — have troubling links to Islamist organisations.
— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) April 8, 2026
These include the Muslim Council… https://t.co/MZsgc4amKF
As the Free Speech Union states: “In a free society, no religion should enjoy greater protection than others — nor be shielded from legitimate criticism and challenge.”
The FSU adds: “This group was stacked with members already sympathetic to such a definition.” And with the government yet to appoint a new Islamophobia tsar, “there is deep cause for concern.”
Conservative MP Katie Lam put it bluntly in her video response: “The Government’s new ‘anti-Muslim hostility’ definition will make it harder to talk about Islamist extremism, FGM, and the grooming gangs. They’d rather restrict our right to criticise than deal with these problems head-on. It’s putting us all in danger.”
Parliament abolished blasphemy laws in 2008. Yet as the FSU warns: “This Government risks reviving them for Islam alone, via the back door.”
The wider context is the government’s “Protecting What Matters” report from March 2026, which rolled out the non-statutory definition alongside plans for a special representative on Muslim hostility. Officials insist it protects free speech – but the panel’s composition tells a different story.
Read the full Free Speech Union briefing here.
This comes just weeks after we reported on the government’s leaked social cohesion strategy that branded the Union Flag a “tool of hate” and told schools children’s drawings could be blasphemous under Islamic law.
It builds directly on the Orwellian push we exposed where UK schools are urged to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility.”
The pattern is clear: criticism of Islam is being reframed as hostility, while real problems like grooming gangs, FGM and Islamist extremism are sidelined.
Challenging Islamist extremism or mass migration’s consequences is now being treated as the real threat. Legitimate debate on integration failures, cultural clashes, or grooming scandals gets reclassified as “hostility” while the actual problems fester.
Britain’s free speech tradition is under sustained assault – not from the public, but from a government more interested in shielding one ideology than defending open society.
The Free Speech Union is right to sound the alarm. Without pushback, this backdoor blasphemy regime will silence the very conversations the country desperately needs.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 05:00OpenAI's broader Stargate push to build next-generation AI infrastructure in the UK has been put on hold, with the company citing regulatory conditions and high energy costs as major obstacles to long-term investment. That outcome is hardly surprising: Britain, like much of dying Europe, has layered on regulatory burdens, while years of backfiring 'green' energy policies have left power costs structurally elevated. It's a toxic mix for power-hungry AI data center buildouts.
"We see huge potential for the UK's AI future," OpenAI told Bloomberg in an emailed statement earlier today. "AI compute is foundational to that goal — we continue to explore Stargate UK and will move forward when the right conditions, such as regulation and the cost of energy, enable long-term infrastructure investment."
Stargate UK is just one piece of OpenAI's much larger global expansion plan, which involves spending hundreds of billions (up to $500bln) on AI infrastructure to localize and scale AI capabilities.
The pause in Stargate UK signals that growth in AI data center buildouts is colliding with power constraints and regulations in the Western world, as left-wing leaders prioritize de-growth economies with extremist climate policies, while on the other side of the world, China did the complete opposite and boosted baseload capacity on the grid with some of the dirtiest mix of power generation.
Similar OpenAI projects are underway in Norway and the United Arab Emirates. The core buildout has been in the US, specifically the flagship data center in Abilene, Texas. However, the company abandoned a planned expansion of that data center.
OpenAI's global compute buildout takeaway:
US = scale + policy support
Middle East = capital + energy
Nordics = cheap power + cooling
UK/Europe = constrained by cost + regulation
Last week, Bloomberg reported that nearly half of the US data centers planned for this year were delayed or canceled - not because of memory chip shortages - but instead shortages of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear, and batteries.
Related:
It certainly appears that data center buildouts are running into real-world constraints that could be a negative for AI momentum trades.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 04:15Authored by Ryan McMaken via the Mises Institute,
Late last year, German lawmakers passed new legislation paving the way for military conscription. As the Guardian reports, “The change will include the obligatory screening of all 18-year-old men to gauge their suitability to serve in the military from 1 January..” This is not (yet) full-blown conscription, but clearly moves in that direction, providing the German state with a plan to measure and assess the availability of young men who can be used as a resource in coming military conflicts.
Now, the legislation faces additional opposition because it turns out the law “requires men aged up to 45 to get permission from the armed forces before any significant stay abroad, even in peacetime.” In other words, the law restricts the emigration of young men who might be of some use to the state as cannon fodder. According to The Guardian:
The fine print, which went largely under the radar until a media report called attention to it this week, says men aged 17 to 45 would have to apply for authorisation to leave Germany for more than three months. ... The clause could potentially affect millions of German citizens embarking on anything from a gap year or study abroad to a new job or sabbatical.
It touched off agitated media coverage in a country where the changes to the military service policy have already led to street protests by school pupils subject to the law’s new requirements.
From restrictions on free speech to attempts to shut down entire political parties, the German state has increasingly showed its affinity for despotism in recent years. Now, by introducing emigration controls, Germany is reverting to an old tactic used by militarist, socialistic European regimes of the past.
As I showed in a 2018 article on how restriction on emigration are a hallmark of despotic states, mandatory military service has long been used as a justification for regulating those who seek to leave the country:
According to Stanley Johnson, in Emigration from the United Kingdom to North America, 1763-1912, “In Germany, an enactment of 1897 forbade the departure of any citizen who had not completed his military training; it appointed also, a special staff of officials to regulate the emigration agencies.” Also: “The movement in Italy is practically in the hands of the Government, and no one can lawfully depart from trans-Atlantic ports without special permission.” In Italy, as in Hungary, there were only certain government approved “routes by which all migrants are to travel.” In Russia, “permits for crossing the frontier are only granted when all military obligations are at an end.”
Military service was not the only reason for restricting emigration, of course. European states restricted emigration whenever it was thought potential migrants might be fleeced for tax revenue or other riches before being allowed to leave. In Alan Kulikoff’s book From British Peasants to Colonial American Farmers, he states
Dissatisfied German peasants, like those in Britain, could emigrate, but German states, worried about losing population and taxes, put roadblocks in their way. Emigrants had to settle all debts and taxes. Free emigrants had to pay large fees for permission to depart and to take property with them, and serfs - a substantial part of the populace - had to pay manumission fees amounting to 12-25 percent of their property.”
Many emigrated anyway, often illegally. Indeed, military conscription proved to be a motivation for countless men across many regions from Spain to Germany to the Ottoman Empire, and to Japan. As I note in this article from 2022:
Some immigrant groups in America, such as the Volga Germans, are practically defined by their avoidance of conscription. Specifically, the Volga Germans in America are descended from Germans who emigrated to Russia in the eighteenth century on the condition that they would not be subject to conscription into the czar’s army. When these exemptions were revoked in the nineteenth century, many Volga Germans emigrated to the United States, where they today constitute a sizable portion of the ethnic German populations of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oregon, and Washington. Anabaptist subgroups of the Volga Germans also fled to America to avoid conscription. Groups such as the Hutterites and the Mennonites were explicitly opposed to military service. ...
Before the Volga Germans, many other Germans had fled the German kingdoms. A large percentage of Germans arrived in Chicago “during the 1830s … to avoid conscription in the army.”
In Spain during the 1860s, unknown numbers of young men fled to avoid military service to the crown, even in spite of the watchful eyes of government agents seeking to prevent emigration. Wayne H. Bowen writes:
Given the poor conditions for troops, conscription was always a challenge for the central government. Many potential soldiers did their best to avoid service, even through leaving Spain. Emigration was a serious problem, as the families of young boys tried to send them to the colonies or encouraged them to emigrate to Latin America or the United States in order to avoid conscription. The Guardia Civil, Spain’s national paramilitary police, had orders to watch the coast and port cities for young men trying to leave, and colonial governors were prohibited from issuing passports to boys who could not prove service or exemption.
Membership in an ethnic minority in Spain likely provided an added impetus to exit, and “evasion of military service was … widespread among Spanish Basques.”
Meanwhile, in Japan, “militarization [in the early twentieth century] and the initiation of the so-called blood tax or national conscription also encouraged many young Japanese males to emigrate to avoid the draft.” Many went to Peru and Brazil.
Although the German state has not yet adopted full conscription, Berlin is clearly up to its old tricks. Of course, the fact that the German state has to take these steps at all shows just unpopular German foreign policy is. After all, if the public were supportive of the state, conscription—or “pre-conscription,” so to speak—would not be necessary. The “need” to impose forced military service on the population is always an illustration of a state lacking legitimacy. Moreover, if a state has to intervene to prevent people from leaving, what does that tell us about that state’s so-called “social contract.” After all, how many times have we heard the political myth that sounds something like this “by choosing to live in this country, you are saying that you will abide by all the state’s demands and rules. Thus, everything the state does to you is voluntary.” But now, it seems, young men will need to get permission to leave. That’s a truly strange social “contract” indeed.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 03:30
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