Cartels Are Going 'Broke' As US Fentanyl Supply Drops By Almost 60%: Homan

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration’s border crackdown is slowing the flow of deadly drugs into the country to the point that cartel profits have plummeted.

​Border czar Tom Homan said during an appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Thursday that President Donald Trump’s operation to go after the Mexican cartels has been successful, and that they are now focusing their drug operations on Europe and Asia.

​“Cartels are going broke,” Homan said. “They know it’s hard here.”​

Sara Carter, director of the National Drug Control Policy and a CPAC speaker, said that securing the U.S. border has meant fewer illegal immigrants and drugs, especially fentanyl.

​“We’ve seen a decrease in fentanyl coming into our country of around 56 percent to 57 percent, which is phenomenal,” she said.

“You’re holding China accountable and telling them we are watching the supply chain, and you will be responsible if we see more deaths in our country.”

​The cartels securing fentanyl precursor chemicals from China and India know what they are doing, she said, adding that cartels and America’s adversaries want “to break us and to create this massive casualty event.”

Discussing the impact of policy changes, Carter said that under the Biden administration, the cartels made hundreds of billions of dollars from human trafficking and the sale of narcotics.

She said adversarial countries pushing drugs onto American streets, such as China, amount to a “proxy war” against the United States.

​Homan and Carter applauded Operation Southern Spear, in which narcoterrorists carrying drugs on boats in the Caribbean were destroyed with U.S. military air strikes.

​Carter said stopping drug runners in the Western Hemisphere was part of the president’s America First strategy. Carter’s comments are supported by a recent study that also points to a sharp decrease in fentanyl deaths.

​The January study suggested that the decrease in deaths, which started in mid-2023, was due to a disruption in the supply chain of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China, creating a shortage of fentanyl on the streets.

​With less fentanyl, dealers and cartels stretched their supply, according to the study. Fentanyl and other street drugs are often cut with substances such as baby powder or sugar.

Opioid deaths that started to drop under the previous administration are continuing their downward trend. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) under the Trump administration intensified enforcement operations, putting pressure on the global fentanyl supply chain, forcing narco-terrorists such as the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG Cartel to alter their business model.

DEA lab testing showed 29 percent of fentanyl pills analyzed during fiscal year 2025 had a potentially lethal dose, a significant drop from just two years earlier, when 76 percent of pills had enough fentanyl to kill.

The purity of fentanyl powder has decreased to 10.3 percent in fiscal year 2025 from 19.5 percent in 2024, the DEA said. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 13:20

Will QatarEnergy's LNG Fiasco Derail Goldman's Prewar View Of A Mega LNG Wave

Global energy flows are being rewired across Eurasia as the Russia-Ukraine war and the latest U.S.-Iran conflict disrupt Gulf energy flows in what may be the worst energy shock on record.

One major new development is that roughly 20% of global LNG flows remain shut in the Gulf region because of the Hormuz chokepoint, with QatarEnergy warning last week that 17% of its LNG export capacity could be offline for three to five years.

That brings us to Goldman commodities expert Samantha Dart's warning to clients about five months ago, in which she said the "largest-ever LNG supply wave" was set to hit, pushing prices lower.

The question now is whether Dart's warning still holds, given that the Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas facility wiped out about 17% of the country's LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia. Repairs are expected to take three to five years.

Dart's pre-US-Iran war view was that natural gas prices would remain relatively stable through 2027 before peak glut materializes by the end of the decade, triggering U.S. LNG export cancellations. However, the Ras Laffan disruption may have derailed that oversupplied outlook, as LNG markets could remain tight for years.

Another key development, with Qatari LNG flows hampered, is a recent note from Criterion Research President James Bevan, who wrote: "What had been framed as a two-horse race for global LNG market share now looks considerably more one-sided. The beneficiary is clear: U.S. Gulf Coast LNG."

And just like that, with Qatari LNG flows hampered for years, the question now is whether Dart's bearish forecast of the "largest-ever LNG supply wave" will likely have to be revisited. We'll see what she says in the next update.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 12:50

Schiff: "Real Rates Are Going To Collapse"; Dollar Confidence Crisis

Gold or Bitcoin: which can anchor the next reserve system? 

Last night, in a ZH debate hosted by Real Vision's Ash Bennington, Peter Schiff argued for gold’s role as the future global reserve currency, while Mark Moss made the case for Bitcoin, arguing that it is gaining traction on sovereign balance sheets as of 2025.

They covered America's dwindling reserve status, fundamental monetary properties, and the nature of governments. Here were some highlights for those short on time:

Gold: Tried and True

Schiff argued that Bitcoin does not meet the definition of money and therefore cannot compete with gold, which he described as the foundational reserve asset backing currencies.

He also pointed to current market trends, arguing that “foreign central banks are already moving more of their US dollar reserves into gold because they are losing confidence,” particularly in the U.S. government’s ability to repay debt without massive debasement. While acknowledging recent volatility, he maintained that gold’s decline is temporary and that “real rates are going to collapse, and that’s bullish for gold.”

At a more fundamental level, money must have independent utility, according to Schiff. 

“It has to be a commodity… [with] its own use,” pointing to gold’s role in “industry… jewelry… aerospace… medicine… electronics” as what makes it “better money than other commodities,” and distinct from Bitcoin, which may be transferable but is solely a digital ledger. 

pic.twitter.com/vqdszTUvVQ

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 27, 2026

The Issue of Trust

Moss emphasized the importance of custody, arguing that gold ultimately depends on intermediaries (unless stored in one’s basement) even when ownership is legally binding. Governments are not trustworthy and if they or the institution holding possession of the physical gold decide to renege, well ultimately, “they have control over the asset.”

Shipping gold abroad is another matter, filled with counterparty risk and logistical burden. Money needs to be transferable and this is hindered “if [governments] won’t allow you to ship it… or receive it.”

At a more basic level, he argued the issue is unavoidable with physical assets: “you have to trust somebody… [and] trust that they’ll allow you to access it,” concluding that “as long as I don’t have possession of it, I have no control over it.”

pic.twitter.com/3oZ37kIuYu

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 27, 2026

Will Central Banks accumulate Bitcoin?

Moss opened by framing Bitcoin within a broader shift in the global monetary system, arguing that reserve assets are moving away from a single dominant anchor toward a mix of holdings. As he put it, “the world is breaking apart… instead of having one… reserve asset, I believe we’ll start to have different assets held in reserve,” with countries diversifying across currencies, commodities, and other stores of value. Within that transition, he argued Bitcoin is already entering the conversation at the sovereign level, projecting that “Bitcoin will have a meaningful allocation in central bank reserves… in the next 20 years.”

Moss argued that if politicians are responding to Bitcoin holders, it suggests scale: “the adoption of Bitcoin is so massive… politicians are forced to bow down to the most powerful voting bloc.”

But is this classic pandering by the political class?

Schiff said “the Bitcoin community has done a very good job of bribing politicians,” framing recent proposals as the result of lobbying and campaign influence rather than monetary necessity. In his view, politicians are responding to a narrow but motivated group of voters, where “when a politician promises to buy Bitcoin… you’re like, yeah, I’m voting for that guy,” effectively bribing voters by promising to use tax dollars to bid up the price of Bitcoin.

The trend, however, may not last. “if the price of Bitcoin collapses, all the political firepower is going to go away.”

pic.twitter.com/4hvUQsKIPk

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 27, 2026
 

Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify.

*  *  * 25-Year Shelf Life

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 12:35

Newspaper Apologizes For Accurately Describing Suspected Killer As 'Illegal Immigrant'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The student journalists at Loyola University Chicago’s Phoenix newspaper have issued a groveling apology for initially reporting the facts about the man charged with murdering 18-year-old Sheridan Gorman.

In an editor’s note, the paper stated: “Additionally, in the body of the original post, we described the man who was charged as an ‘illegal immigrant,’ using language provided by the Department of Homeland Security. That language does not align with Associated Press style, nor does it align with the values of this newspaper.”

It continued: “No human’s existence is illegal, and we quickly changed our wording to reflect that. We acknowledge the harm such language can cause and the power and importance of the words we choose to use. We deeply regret these errors, and we’re committed to continuing the high standards we hold for ourselves as journalists and members of the Loyola, Rogers Park and Chicago communities.”

Loyola University newspaper has issued an apology in the wake of the murder of freshman Sheridan Gorman...ostensibly to her accused murderer. The Phoenix was sorry for calling Jose Medina-Medina an "illegal immigrant" instead of a "Rogers Park Resident"...https://t.co/01UFG9ySL8

— Jonathan Turley (@JonathanTurley) March 25, 2026

The suspect, 25-year-old Jose Medina-Medina, a Venezuelan national living in the United States illegally, faces charges in the fatal shooting of Gorman on a pier at Chicago’s Tobey Prinz Beach. Gorman, a Loyola freshman, was walking with friends when she was chased and shot in the head.

The case fits the pattern of endless preventable violence perpetrated by criminal illegals.

Worse still, Governor JB Pritzker attempted to shift responsibility by blaming President Trump for the murder:

Medina-Medina was apprehended by Border Patrol in May 2023 and released into the U.S. interior. Weeks later, Chicago police arrested him for shoplifting, but he was released again under sanctuary policies that shield illegal immigrants from federal immigration authorities.

Chicago Alderwoman Maria Hadden (D–Rogers Park) downplayed the incident, claiming “it sounds like, this might have been a wrong place, wrong time, running into a person who had a gun, they might have startled this person at the end of the pier.”

Gorman’s distraught family pushed back hard against attempts to minimize what happened. Their statement read: “What happened to Sheridan cannot be reduced to a ‘senseless tragedy,’ nor can it be explained in general terms about public safety.”

They added: “Sheridan was our daughter. She was 18 years old. She was doing something entirely normal — walking near her campus with friends. She should be here.”

The family continued: “Calling this ‘senseless’ is not enough. There must be a clear and honest accounting of what went wrong. We will not allow Sheridan’s life to be reduced to a talking point or a generalization. We expect leadership that is willing to confront hard truths and ensure that what happened to her does not happen again.”

Further: “Sheridan was a daughter, a sister, and a young woman whose life was taken in a way that should never have been possible. We are not interested in political arguments or in watching responsibility shift from one place to another. If there were failures—as the Governor himself has acknowledged—then every one of them must be identified, examined, and addressed directly. The location of those failures matters less than the willingness to confront them honestly.”

They concluded: “Our daughter is not a policy debate. She is a life that was taken, and that demands accountability.”

Governor JB Pritzker responded by acknowledging failures while pointing elsewhere: “This has been a terrible tragedy … there have been real failures. Those failures, of course, extend beyond the borders of Illinois. That’s their national failures, a failure to have comprehensive immigration reform, a failure of the president to follow his own edict to go after the worst of the worst.”

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson avoided taking ownership of the city’s long-standing sanctuary policies: “Let’s just be very clear, between the Safe-T Act and the welcoming city ordinance, the welcoming city ordinance was passed 40 years ago by the first Black mayor in the history of Chicago, and the Safety Act was passed under the governor at that time, who was a Republican.”

The family’s direct call for accountability stands in sharp contrast to the deflection and word games from officials and the student press. While the Loyola Phoenix regrets using accurate language from the Department of Homeland Security, the real harm remains the policies that allowed a twice-released illegal immigrant to cross paths with an innocent student.

Sheridan Gorman’s death was not inevitable. It resulted from repeated decisions that prioritized open-border practices and sanctuary protections over basic public safety. As long as leaders refuse to secure the border and enforce immigration law, more American lives will be lost to the same failures.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 12:05

UAE Pushes For Hormuz Security Force, While Turkey Argues Against Gulf Entry Into War

It's one of those things that sounds nice on paper, but when missiles and drones are inbound, no one is going to want to be on a military ship sitting in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz: the United Arab Emirates, which has been among the hardest-impacted Gulf states in Iran's ongoing retaliation, is pressing for a multinational maritime ​taskforce to reopen vital oil transit waterway, the Financial Times reports ‌Friday.

The UAE, with a navy that's not really going to strike fear into any enemy (much less the Iranians), says it is willing to participate in a "Hormuz Security Force" to defend the strait and escort shipping. Dozens of countries are being asked to join, sources cited in FT say.

Source: Abu Dhabi Ship Building Company

And yet for all the public posturing and signing of 'symbolic statements' - not a single country with a strong military has actually stepped up with a concrete offer to provide warships and military assets (other than Israel, which is a direct party to the war).

This is despite that for much of the past month of the war immense pressure has been exerted on allies by the Trump administration. But by and large they've shrugged and have said "this is not our war" - despite rising oil prices and global shipping disruption. 

At the same time, the Mideast/Asia regional country representing NATO's second largest military, Turkey, is reportedly behind the scenes telling the Gulf (GCC) not to join the war.

"Turkey is conducting intensive diplomatic efforts to try and prevent Gulf Arab countries from joining the US-Israeli war against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter," Reuters writes separately on Friday.

"Ankara has urged Gulf nations to act with restraint, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters," the report continues. "Turkey has stepped up diplomacy, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visiting Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and holding calls with other regional counterparts."

Turkey, which shares a far eastern border with Iran, does indeed have an interest in avoiding broader escalation in region - but it has also of late been a sworn enemy of Israel, especially during and in the wake of the Gaza War.

Reuters further reveals that there's lots more "talk" but no action as yet:

Several U.S. allies have ⁠said they have no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the ​Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a Trump request for military support to keep the ​vital waterway open.

France said on Thursday it had held talks with around 35 countries seeking partners and proposals for a mission to reopen the strait, but only once the U.S.-Israeli war ​on Iran ends.

It's a big open question whether the United States itself will actually send warships deeper into Gulf waters near the strait. Some military analysts have warned of the immense risk and exposure, given reports that Iran has mined the strait, but also given the IRGC would without doubt send missiles and drones against any military vessels seeking to pass.

Haaretz: After initial sprint, Iran missile attacks settling into marathon pace. Similar trend to strikes in the Gulf documented by @ka_grieco.

Bad news, but unsurprising -- Iran's missile capacity steady after a *full month* of US/Isr war.https://t.co/UwOu5JcUkF pic.twitter.com/580b5IFeee

— Rosemary Kelanic (@RKelanic) March 27, 2026

Currently the 'international community' seems to be sitting around saying 'you first' while looking for others to lead. And all the while the White House seems to lack a coherent big vision strategy, or at the very least has not clearly communicated one. Trump is not going to be happy to hear that America's wayward ally Turkey could be thwarting efforts to cobble together a Hormuz coalition.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 11:45

House Ethics Panel Finds Florida Democrat Congresswoman Committed 25 Violations

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

A bipartisan House Ethics Committee panel found on March 27 that Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) committed 25 ethics violations, a ruling that sets the stage for a sanctions hearing and a potential expulsion vote on the House floor.

The adjudicatory subcommittee, composed of four Republicans and four Democrats, deliberated until well past midnight before releasing its findings Friday morning.

The panel found 25 of 27 counts in the Statement of Alleged Violations proven by clear and convincing evidence.

The full committee will hold a sanctions hearing shortly after the House returns from the April recess.

The violations center on Cherfilus-McCormick’s alleged use of millions of dollars from her family’s health care company, Trinity Healthcare Services, to fund her 2022 congressional campaign through a network of family members and affiliated businesses.

Investigators also found violations related to her reelection campaign, financial disclosure failures, and use of her congressional office to benefit allies.

Thursday’s public hearing was the first open ethics proceeding against a sitting House member in nearly 15 years.

The ruling could fuel a Republican-led expulsion push and further divide a Democratic Caucus trying to retake the House majority in November.

Cherfilus-McCormick is running for a fourth term representing a southeastern Florida district.
 

Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds vote.

Republicans have signaled they intend to push for it.

“I look forward to proving my innocence,” the congresswoman’s office told The Epoch Times via email.

“Until then, my focus remains where it belongs: showing up for the great people of Florida’s 20th District who sent me to Washington to fight for them.”

The congresswoman has maintained her innocence.

“This is an unjust, baseless, sham indictment—and I am innocent,” she said at the time of her indictment.

“The timing alone is curious and clearly meant to distract from far more pressing national issues. From day one, I have fully cooperated with every lawful request, and I will continue to do so until this matter is resolved. I am deeply grateful for the support of my district, and I remain confident that the truth will prevail. I look forward to my day in court. Until then, I will continue fighting for my constituents.”

Cherfilus-McCormick also faces a federal indictment on charges of stealing approximately $5 million in COVID-19 disaster relief funds and using it for personal purchases, including a 3-carat yellow diamond ring.

Her brother, the former chief of staff, and the accountant were also charged in the alleged scheme.

She has pleaded not guilty.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 11:25

China Dismisses Report Of Top Chipmaker Aiding Iranian Forces As "Fake News"

Beijing moved into damage-control mode on Friday, with its foreign ministry dismissing a Reuters report that cited two senior Trump administration officials alleging that SMIC, China's largest chipmaker, had sent chipmaking tools to Iran, as "false information."

Asked about the report at a regular news conference in Beijing, foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said he was "not familiar with the situation" and added, "What I can tell you is that recently, some media have been keen on releasing news that seems correct but is actually wrong."

Jian added that, "after verification, all such reports were found to be false information," but he did not elaborate further.

The denial underscores just how sensitive Beijing is to headlines featuring Trump administration officials accusing SMIC of sending chipmaking tools to Iran.

"We have no reason to believe that any of this has stopped," one Trump official told Reuters.

Those allegations build on a separate report about a viral video circulating on X that appears to show a Chinese company mass-producing Shahed-type drones.

One Trump official told the outlet that the SMIC tools sent to Iran could be used in any electronics that require chips.

Reuters noted, "It was not immediately clear what, if any, role the chipmaking tools have played in Iran's response to the war, which was launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28."

What is clear, based on a separate report we first noted in early March, is that an Iranian drone that targeted the British Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri, Cyprus, contained a Russian-made "Kometa" satellite navigation chip using Western-made components.

Just so readers are on the same page, here is the current map of the two modern battlefields in Eurasia overlaid with natural gas pipelines.

Read: "Eurasia Energy War?"

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 11:05

Someone Tell Lloyd Blankfein The Fire In Private Credit Has Already Started

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

As I’ve been writing about, private credit has been under immense stress for months, with liquidity strains, redemption pressure, and growing questions around valuations all surfacing at once. And now with things on the verge of imminent collapse and literally all of f*cking Wall Street already on notice, one former major banking CEO has decided to offer up the King Solomon-like revelation that he believes things could get worse from here.

But, obviously, what he doesn’t realize is that the deterioration he’s warning about isn’t ahead of us. It’s already here.

“At some point there needs to be a forcing function or a reckoning that causes you to come to grips with what your balance sheet really is worth,” former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein told Bloomberg this week. He continued: “The analogy I like to give is you accumulate tinder on the floor of the forest and eventually a spark will come. But the longer between intervals where there’s a spark that sets it on fire, the more that accumulates.”

Blankfein’s metaphor of tinder piling up in a forest misses one crucial point: the smoke is already in the air. When Blankfein warns that a spark will eventually force a reckoning in private assets, he’s describing a future event. But the market isn’t waiting for ignition, it’s already reacting. The forcing function he anticipates is not some external shock still to come it’s already unfolding inside fund structures, redemption queues, and valuation disputes. As I’ve written, it’s psychology.

And the psychology has shifted. The bid is no longer blind.

Look at the sequence of events just in March. Apollo Global Management capped withdrawals after double digit redemption requests. Ares Management restricted redemptions as its income fund came under pressure. BlackRock began limiting withdrawals in a major private credit vehicle. And just yesterday, more headlines hit showing big losses for Ares funds. Tinder, meet spark.

This is where Blankfein is late. The moment redemptions get gated, the psychology is already broken. Investors are no longer thinking about yield, they are thinking about access. They are no longer asking what return, they will earn they are asking whether they can get their money back. That shift is irreversible in the short term. Once liquidity becomes uncertain, every private mark becomes suspect. Every quarterly report becomes a negotiation with reality.

And once that realization sets in, the game changes completely. As Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater cap redemptions, and as funds across the space impose limits or gates, the narrative breaks. Investors do not wait for official markdowns…they front run them. They redeem preemptively. They assume the worst. That behavior is the spark Blankfein is looking for, except it is already happening.

As I wrote last week, even insiders have been saying the quiet part out loud. An executive at Apollo Global Management recently said that “all” marks in parts of private markets are wrong. Add in regulatory scrutiny with the SEC questioning private credit ratings and you have something more dangerous than a valuation problem: you have a credibility problem. And markets do not wait for numbers to adjust when credibility breaks. They reprice instantly in behavior.

For anyone who’s been paying attention, none of this is new. This has been building for months, and it has been called out for months. The gates, the redemption limits, the quiet markdowns, the uneasy investor calls…it’s all been there in plain sight. The only thing that’s changed now is that it’s too obvious to ignore. What was dismissed as isolated stress is now showing up everywhere at once.

What Blankfein is describing as a future reckoning is, in reality, a lagging recognition of something already in motion. So the question is no longer what will trigger the downturn. The question is how far it spreads now that it has started. Because once investors collectively realize that liquidity is conditional and marks are questionable, the unwind becomes self reinforcing. That is not tinder accumulating. That is combustion already underway.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 10:50

Logic, Logistics, And At Least Another 10 Days...

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Thursday was a rocky day in markets ahead of today’s deadline for the US to shift from bombing Iran’s nuclear, missile, drone, military-industrial, and regime sites to destroying its electricity grid, potentially taking out its power generation for a generation, and unleashing an Iranian response against the broader region’s power, water, and energy infrastructure.

Given that backdrop, some TACO the view it was logical Trump subsequently extended the deadline to 8PM EST on Monday 6 April, because “talks are ongoing, and despite erroneous statements to the contrary from the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well.” Is this true, is Trump pulling a head-fake ahead of an impending strike, or did he just ramp the markets looking for an off-ramp?

Supporting a ‘deal ahead’ view, Israel is shifting from hitting regime to military-industrial targets and is back to 24-hour attack runs despite the incredible strain it puts on its pilots and fighter jets. Yet there are other logics derived from logistics.

The official Iranian position is that the US proposal to end the war is “one-sided and unfair.” Indeed, Iran’s hardline new leaders are calling for a rapid move to gain a nuclear bomb, and it is already recruiting children as young as 12 to man checkpoints in Tehran, according to Al Arabiya, and is using civilian shields around regime targets. Iran also says Yemen's Houthis may cut off Saudi Oil flowing from its Red Sea back-up pipeline and target the key trade route between Asia and Europe.

The Pentagon is reportedly choosing ‘final blow’ options if talks fail. There are strong suggestions that if the US steps up its attacks, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will move from defence to offence alongside it, which would change the regional dynamic – they, like Israel, are not able to ‘go home’ afterwards if they fail. This morning also sees news the US may send an additional 10,000 ground troops - and most of those forces could only arrive by next weekend, just ahead of the new Monday deadline. (Also note in 1991’s Gulf War 1, the US sent 650,000 troops at its peak, and in 2003’s Gulf War 2, around 450,000.)

However, that decline is part of the logic arguing why the US is acting – both to deal with Iran’s nuclear threat and to keep control of key commodity supply chains while it still can. Indeed, it’s reported US plans may include seizing key Iranian oil assets, either strategic islands in Hormuz or the oil hub of Kharg. Trump floated the US controlling Iranian oil yesterday, as it de facto does Venezuelan. If the US were to take the mouth of the Strait it could lock Iranian oil in, throttling the regime, while letting others’ out, albeit under some fire.

In short, we have an extension of the war until at least April 6 as the financial press say ‘24 days to disaster: Trump’s new deadline won’t change oil shock maths’. Oil already at sea pre-war will have been used up by then, revealing the true supply shock. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks have taken 40% of Russian oil export capacity out, there was a strike against a Turkish tanker carrying Russian oil yesterday, and a major cyclone just forced Australian LNG shutdowns. Vietnam and the Philippines are asking Japan to help them from its own oil reserves. Expect more such pleas.

We also have conflating geopolitical shocks that will echo after the war is over. Trump scorched NATO for failing an Iran ‘loyalty test’ and seems to be flirting with dumping the alliance again, despite Secretary General Rutte saying, “NATO is safer under Trump.” Europe still insists, “This isn’t our war.” Trump literally replied, “Ukraine isn’t ours.” Yet that’s as Russia admits it is helping Iran militarily, as Iran helped Russia fight until now…. and as the German Armed Forces Association called to prepare for a war economy.

Potential geoeconomic shocks are also clear beyond those from energy. Though the EU parliament approved the US trade deal yesterday, avoiding the US threat to use LNG exports as an economic weapon, there were caveats. The updated agreement allows for its suspension if: (1) the US undermines the deal's objectives or discriminates against EU economic operators - which implies there cannot be higher tariffs for different sectors, which the US is going to insist on; (2) if the US threatens the territorial integrity of member states - which implies Greenland, which the US is likely to return to after the Diego Garcia debacle with the UK, Spain’s restriction on allowing the Pentagon to use its airbase there, and some EU countries not allowing US planes to overfly them; (3) if the US engages in economic coercion – which is always a risk with economic statecraft.

Notably, and logically, some note a ‘patriots' paradox’, where even Trump's far-right European allies refuse to support his EU trade deal. Indeed, as underlined before, historically this is why neo-mercantilists don’t unite: they all want to win in the zero-sum trade game. Indeed, all political sides are seeing some things the same way in Europe, it seems. Germany is planning how it can hurt the US in a trade war even though they have no escalation dominance as the net exporter; and Chancellor Merz just proposed a new trade deal with China, which is supporting Russia vs Ukraine, though Brussels knocked it back.

Moreover, Canada’s PM Carney is also trying to put together a ‘mega anti-Trump alliance’ to ‘save world trade’. As Politico puts, it “Nearly 40 nations are hatching a plan to save the WTO or, if it can’t be salvaged, to build a new order.” Without the US and China? The EU and UK are deeply reliant on the US (and China); Canada borders the US, and it, Peru, Chile, and Mexico are in Donroe Doctrine territory; Japan is a key, freshly-pledged US ally; Australia and New Zealand are totally reliant on US defence and access to Eurodollar borrowing; and Brunei, Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia are in China’s neighborhood. (As China just threatened Mexico with trade reprisals over its new 50% import duties.)

That’s already a lot for markets to try to (in)digest today. Yet it’s also necessary to include that the FT reports the US Treasury market is showing signs of strain as the Iran war sparks tumult – any problems there are problems almost everywhere; more FOMC members are worrying about the potential impact of the war on the US economy, as the OECD suggests inflation could reach as high as 4.2%; the Fed’s Miran argues the central bank could cut its balance sheet by up to $2tn ‘without any market turmoil’; and President Trump’s signature is going to appear on paper dollars, making him the first sitting president to see this happen.

Whether that latter news is good or bad for the dollar, like so much else around us, ultimately pivots around the outcome of this war vs Iran.

Let’s hope for a quiet weekend – we haven’t had one in quite some time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 10:15

Iran War Triggers Jump In Americans' Inflation Expectations, Slump In Sentiment

While the preliminary UMich survey was undertaken between February 17 and March 9, with about half completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran, today's final print includes the full month with all the conflict's escalations (and de-escalations).

Expectations were for the headline sentiment index to tumble with expectations projected to fall most and consensus was right with the expectations tumbling from 54.1 to  51.7 and current conditions down from 57.8 to 55.8 (worse than expected). Put together, the headline sentiment index fall from 55.5 to 53.3 (worse than expected) - the lowest reading of the year...

Source: Bloomberg

Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment. Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%, while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued.

As UMich Survey Director Joanna Hsu notes: "These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent negative developments to persist far into the future."

Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 23, with about two-thirds completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran.

Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from 3.4% in February to 3.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025. 

Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%.

Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date...

Only 28% of consumers expect interest rates to fall in the year ahead, down from 35% last month and nearly half of consumers 6 months ago.

Expectations for other elements of the economy, including personal finances, business conditions, labor markets, and stock markets, also deteriorated this month.

Decreases in expectations for personal finances and business conditions were much sharper for the short run than the long run.

However, Hsu concludes, "these views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 10:08

AI Disruption Returns: Cybersecurity Stocks Tumble On Report Of New Anthropic "Step Change" AI Model

Cybersecurity stocks are slumping in premarket trading on Friday as the AI disruption trade returns after a Fortune report said Anthropic is testing a new AI model that “poses significant cybersecurity risks.”

According to the report, Anthropic is "developing and has begun testing with early access customers a new AI model more capable than any it has released previously," the company said, following a data leak that revealed the model’s existence. 

An Anthropic spokesperson said the new model represented “a step change” in AI performance and was “the most capable we’ve built to date.” The company said the model is currently being trialed by “early access customers.”

Descriptions of the model were inadvertently stored in a publicly-accessible data cache and were reviewed by Fortune.

A draft blog post that was available in an unsecured and publicly-searchable data store prior to Thursday evening said the new model is called “Claude Mythos” and that the company believes it poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks.

Among notable movers this morning: CrowdStrike -6.0%, Palo Alto Networks -4.6%, Cloudflare -3.9%, Zscaler -4.7%, Fortinet -4.0%, Okta -4.26%. The broader Global X Cybersecurity ETF is down 2.7%

Security stocks — along with software names more broadly — have been pressured by concerns that tools from AI companies like Anthropic or OpenAI could reduce demand for products from legacy providers, weighing on their growth, margins, and pricing power.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 09:01

Senate Passes DHS Funding Bill To End 40-Day Shutdown, Airport Chaos

At 2:22 a.m. EST, the Senate unanimously passed a spending bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security after a 40-day shutdown that disrupted airport security and sparked travel chaos for millions of Americans.

The bill, which excludes funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, still needs House approval and President Trump's signature. The overnight breakthrough came as airport TSA lines worsened nationwide this week, with TSA agents calling out sick or quitting due to missed paychecks.

BREAKING.

The Senate just passed funding for most of DHS for the rest of the fiscal year.

The bill funds all but ICE and *Border Patrol*

This was by unanimous voice vote. It now goes to the House, which is still in town and can vote later today.

The bill contains no…

— Lisa Desjardins (@LisaDNews) March 27, 2026

Unpaid TSA agents have been calling out by the hundreds at major airports so far, including Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, and New York, sparking long checkpoint lines. The funding lapse has led to 480 TSA workers resigning.

The breakthrough also came after President Trump added pressure on Thursday (read here), saying he would sign an order to fund TSA officers' paychecks. 

"I am going to sign an Order instructing the Secretary of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin, to immediately pay our TSA Agents in order to address this Emergency Situation, and to quickly stop the Democrat Chaos at the Airports," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Thursday. 

President Trump pins blame on Democrats for DHS shutdown at cabinet meeting: "They need to end this shutdown immediately, or we'll have to take some very drastic measures." pic.twitter.com/Pt4pFK2wB0

— CSPAN (@cspan) March 26, 2026

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said, "Hopefully they'll be around, and we can get at least a lot of the government opened up again, and then we'll go from there."

Thune blamed unhinged Democrats for the airport chaos: "President Trump should never have had to step in to rescue TSA workers and U.S. air travel. We are here because, thanks to Democrats' determined refusal to reach an agreement, there will be no Homeland Security funding bill this year." 

Democrats have widely objected to passing a DHS spending bill that includes funding for ICE and CBP. This is mostly because the president has used those federal agencies to deport illegal aliens, the very ones that Democrats let in through disastrous open borders to build a new voting bloc in their aspirations of a one-party rule nation, just like the insanity in California, Maryland, and other deeply blue states. 

Punchbowl News explained there were "no winners" in this six-week standoff.

"Who won the Senate standoff? No one, in truth. Nothing really changed. Both sides wanted to have this fight, so it happened. It was another example of how little moderation is left in the Trump era, where the first instinct is to go to war," the outlet wrote in a morning note.

*  *  * Sale on Top Supplements

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Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 08:40

Trump Fails To Jawbone Market As Futures, Bitcoin Tumble; Oil And Yields Soar

Futures are sharply lower, erasing modest overnight gains and trading near session lows as Brent crude futures are back above $110 a barrel after erasing an earlier fall and knocking broader risk sentiment off course in the process. There didn’t appear to be a single catalyst for the oil turnaround, although a steady stream of drone and missile attacks in the Middle East will have played a role and erased what little optimism Trump's 10 day delay to an Iranian energy plant strike may have prompted, a move which is now widely seen as a smokescreen to get more US troops - and potentially Gulf allies - behind a ground invasion of one or more Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures down 0.3% despite the initial spike in equities after Trump announced another delay in the ceasefire deal; with March coming to a close, the Iran war has driven WTI oil toward its best month since 2020 and stocks to their worst since 2022. Nasdaq futures slide 0.6% as equities, rates and commodities all reverse the immediately reactions. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all red  Bond yields added another 3-5bp led by the long-end: 10y yields +4.8bp rising to 4.47%. Oil went up again with WTI now over $96 (+2.2% since yesterday’s close). Base metals are mostly lower (Copper -1.4%), while precious metals also reverse earlier gains. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all red following a sharp drop in the Nasdaq 100 Thursday, as concerns over a prolonged Middle East conflict weigh on sentiment (Apple -0.1%, Nvidia -0.1%, Amazon -0.5%, Meta -0.8%, Tesla -0.5%, Microsoft -0.4%, Alphabet -1%)

• Argan Inc. (AGX) rises 10% after the power plant-builder reported earnings per share and revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. JPMorgan raises its rating on the stock to overweight, saying the results were strong with EPS “well ahead” of expectations.
• Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT) rises 12% after the FDA approved the drug developer’s Kresladi for the treatment of severe Leukocyte Adhesion Deficiency Type I — a rare white blood cell disorder — in pediatric patients.
• Two Harbors Investment (TWO) slips 2% after agreeing to be acquired by CrossCountry.
• Unity Software (U) jumps 11% after the company reported preliminary first-quarter earnings. The results showed significant strength in Vector, the company’s AI-driven advertising unit, according to analysts.

In corporate news, Anthropic won a court order blocking a Trump administration ban on government use of its AI tech, arguing the move could cost it billions in lost revenue. The company behind the Claude chatbot is considering an IPO as soon as October, as it races rival OpenAI to market. And Brown-Forman, the owner of Jack Daniel’s, and France’s Pernod Ricard are discussing a merger as the alcoholic drinks industry looks at ways to weather a downturn.

“After several glimmers of hope, fueled by comments from President Trump, which were quickly dashed, the market is becoming more demanding in terms of rhetoric,” said Amélie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. “The TACO trade is more difficult to do because a return to square one is not possible from here.”

Optimism about the latest deadline extension for Tehran to reach a deal quickly faded as Trump no longer can jawbone market, and as a result S&P 500 futures gave back early gains to trade at session lows as US traders walk in, after Thursday saw the most bruising session for US stocks since the conflict began.  Messages about the war remain mixed. Trump again delayed his deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire deal or face more attacks, saying talks with Tehran were going “very well”. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that the Pentagon is looking at sending as many as 10,000 more ground troops to the Middle East. At the same time, Israel said it would escalate and expand its attacks on the Islamic Republic. The conflict has inflicted damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf and effectively shut a vital artery for oil and gas shipments. Traders fear a broadening impact on energy supplies and oil prices, stoking fears of an inflationary spiral that could force central banks to tighten monetary policy. 

“Trump is unpredictable, so one doesn’t know whether he’s gaining time to send troops to invade the Strait of Hormuz or to negotiate further,” said Nicolas Domont, a fund manager at Optigestion in Paris. “The war could stop anytime and things could return to normal within a few months but one could also end up with oil at $200 in six months.”

Turning back to markets, Bloomberg notes that tech’s pullback leaves the Nasdaq’s forward price to earnings valuation premium over the S&P 500 at just 4.4%, the smallest since January 2019. As recently as October, the premium stood at 35.7%.

Also weighing on sentiment was China’s move to open a trade probe into the US ahead of an expected summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping. China’s investigations into US trade practices signaled the country’s retaliation against similar probes by the Trump administration. The move is a direct mirror of steps Trump took to revive his tariff agenda after the Supreme Court last month struck down some of his duties.

“China has learnt that a confrontational approach on trade produces the most favorable outcome in negotiations,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “The reciprocal action China has launched should be seen as a move to stake out its territory ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.”

Trump is set to address a Saudi sovereign wealth fund-backed investment conference in Miami, as the Iran war drives WTI oil toward its best month since 2020 and stocks to their worst since 2022.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.9% with media, industrial and energy shares leading declines. Chemicals and health care outperform.  Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• AstraZeneca shares rise as much as 3.8% after the drugmaker said its experimental drug for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease — a deadly lung condition also known as COPD — helped reduce the worsening of symptoms in two late-stage trials
• Enagas shares rise as much as 15%, the most in six years, after Spanish regulator CNMC unveiled a draft proposal for gas companies that JPMorgan says is surprisingly positive
• JM gains as much as 5.2% after SEB Equities upgraded the Swedish construction and real estate development group to buy from hold and said stock prices in zero valuation creation from the land bank
• SOL shares gained as much as 11% in Milan trading, the most since March 2020, as some analysts increased their price targets on the industrial and medical gases manufacturer, citing solid full-year financial results
• Netcompany gains as much as 11% after upgrading its adjusted Ebitda margin guidance, with the Danish IT services provider citing “delivery excellence and implementation, supported by the ongoing embedding of AI capabilities”
• Dino Polska plummets by as much as 18% after Polish food supermarket chain posted its thinnest quarterly Ebitda margin as cut-throat cost competition continued among the industry
• CTS Eventim slumps as much as 17%, with JPMorgan saying that while full-year results met expectations, the set-up for the ticker seller is more mixed for 2026
• Harbour Energy shares drop as much as 9% after German chemical giant BASF sold shares at a discount to Thursday’s closing price
• Future Plc shares fall as much as 14% on Friday after the publisher was downgraded to hold from buy by Jefferies, which said the company faces dual headwinds from both AI and social media content

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell on Friday, staying on course for a fourth-straight weekly loss, as concerns over the wide-ranging economic impact of the Middle East war deterred risk-taking. Down 1.8% so far this week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is heading for its longest stretch of weekly declines since November 2024. The region’s tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan led Friday’s selloff, while the sector was also the biggest drag on the benchmark gauge. That’s after Meta Platforms and Alphabet drove a selloff in the US on Thursday. “The situation is becoming more and more complex and problematic,” Jasmine Duan, senior investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management Asia, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The firm has reduced its positioning in Asian equities since the onset of the war as “Asian economies in general will be affected more by the energy crisis,” she added.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. The pound falls a few pips despite stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data.

In commodities, Brent crude futures are back above $110 a barrel after erasing an earlier fall and knocking broader risk sentiment off course in the process. There didn’t appear to be a single catalyst for the oil turnaround, although a steady stream of drone and missile attacks in the Middle East will have played a role. Stocks and bonds fell as a result, with China’s move to open a trade probe into the US also likely weighing on sentiment. Precious metals advance. Bitcoin loses 2.9%. 

In rates, the fall in Treasuries has pushed US 10-year yields up 5 bps to a year-to-date high at 4.46%. Treasuries hold losses in early US session amid steeper declines for European bonds, particularly UK gilts, where long-end yields are 12bp higher on the day. US yields resumed rising with oil prices, erasing the late-Thursday drop that followed US President Trump pushing back a deadline for striking Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days.  US yields are 2bp-5bp higher across a steeper curve, with 2- to 10-year tenors having reached fresh yearly highs and 30-year approaching 5%, last seen in July; 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are ~3bp and ~1bp wider respectively. Gilts lead a selloff in European government bonds with UK 10-year borrowing costs rising 11 bps. In UK curve-steepening selloff, 30-year yields peaked at 5.69%, highest since September. Fed-dated OI contracts price in around 20bp of rate hikes by the end of the year, the most hawkish point in the current cycle; about 3bp of tightening is priced in for the April meeting.  

US economic data calendar includes March final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and March Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (11am), Paulson (11:30am) and Daly (11:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini 0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.9%
• DAX -1.1%
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.46%
• VIX +1.2 points at 28.63
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1216.36
• euro little changed at $1.1522
• WTI crude +1.7% at $96.05/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said that Iran asked him to extend the pause and in a certain sense, we've already won, while he added that Iran made a request to him through his people and had asked for seven days, but he gave 10 days because of Hormuz 'gift'. Iran was very thankful.
• Mediators said Iran hasn’t requested a 10-day pause on strikes on its energy plants and is yet to deliver a final response to a 15-point plan to end the war: WSJ.
• US is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East: WSJ.
• Iran and Israel Keep Up Attacks After Trump Extends Deadline: BBG
• Iranian officials are interested in negotiations despite the announcement of their rejection of the US proposal, while mediators are pressuring Tehran to agree to a meeting with Washington in the coming days: Axios.
• "Things are progressing very slowly" in terms of negotiations between the US and Iran, as it stands, no meeting has been scheduled between senior officials: i24's Stein reports;
• Iran's IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any traffic in this strait will be severely dealt with; traffic of any ship "to and from" the ports of origin of the allies of the enemies is prohibited from any corridor.
• Iran Blocks Two Chinese Ships From Hormuz in Rare Move: WSJ
• U.S. and Israel Have Pounded—but Not Eliminated—Iran’s Missile Threat: WSJ
• US deploys uncrewed drone boats in conflict with Iran: Reuters
• Trump is weighing several options for dramatically escalating the war against Iran should his latest push for diplomacy fail: CNN.
• Senate Passes Homeland Security Deal After Airport Delays; the vote comes hours after Trump said that he signed an Emergency Order directing the homeland security secretary to pay Transportation Security Administration agents: Reuters.
• China Starts Trade Probes Against US Before Xi-Trump Summit: BBG
• Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at Future Investment Initiative at 17:30EST on Friday and will participate in MAGA Inc meeting at 18:30EST on Saturday, while he will deliver remarks to farmers at 12:30EST on Sunday.
• Oaktree to Meet 8.5% Private Credit Fund Redemptions in Full: BBG
• Wall Street Says Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore Despite War: BBG
• BofA's weekly flow report noted USD 2.7bln into bonds, USD 35bln out of cash, USD 29bln out of stocks, USD 6.3bln out of gold, USD 0.5bln out of crypto.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were cautious but off worst levels with headwinds seen following the tech and comms-led selling stateside, and despite US President Trump's 10-day extension to the Strait of Hormuz deadline. The delay extends the pause on strikes against Iran's energy facilities through to April 6th, which Trump said was due to a request by Iran, which had wanted a 7-day extension, but he gave them 10 due to Iran's Hormuz 'gift'. Nonetheless, mixed signals persisted as mediators stated that Iran had not made a request for a 10-day extension, while it was also reported that the US is considering sending up to an additional 10k ground troops to the region and that Trump is weighing several options for dramatically escalating the war if his latest diplomacy efforts fail. ASX 200 marginally declined with underperformance seen in tech, real estate and gold miners, while a lack of fresh catalysts outside of geopolitics and the absence of data kept price action subdued. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open and briefly dipped below the 53,000 level following the recent upside in oil and yields, but has since clawed back nearly all of the losses. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp shrugged off the initial indecision as participants digested a slew of earnings releases, while it was also reported that China's Commerce Minister Wang met with USTR Greer and said that China is willing to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with the US.

Top Asian News

• Japan's government approves a five-year science and tech plan and is to invest JPY 60tln in science and tech over five years, while it set JPY 180tln public-private investment target.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama announces measures to ensure stable business funding and will hold a meeting on financial aid amid the Middle East crisis. Will hold G7 Finance Ministers' online meeting and will take decisive steps on Forex.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.0%) start Friday's session entirely in the red, reversing the modest pre-cash gains. This comes following China's MOFCOM launching new US probes and recent geopolitical flare ups. European sectors are mainly in the red. Media and Retail sit at the bottom of the pile, while Health Care posts modest gains as AstraZeneca supports the sector.

Top European News

• UK Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 1.8%, Low. -1.0%, High. 1.1%).
• UK Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 4.5%, Low. 1.8%, High. 4.4%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY (Feb) Y/Y 3.4% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 5.5%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Feb) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 2%).
• UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (Mar) -21 vs. Exp. -24 (Prev. -19).

FX

• DXY is incrementally firmer, and is currently trading within a 99.90-100.04 range. Focus remains on the geopolitical situation after US President Trump announced a 10-day pause in planned strikes on energy plants, adding that talks with Iran are going very well. Though WSJ reported that the Iranians are demanding that the US dial back on demands made in the 15-point ceasefire plan. Earlier today, there was a barrage of Iranian attacks on several Gulf countries, and interestingly, the IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz is shut, having turned away three ships of different nationalities.
• G10s are mixed against the USD, with some mild strength seen in the Antipodeans, whilst the CHF lags a touch. The former appears to be a slight rebound following the hefty losses seen in the prior session. EUR and GBP are both incrementally lower against the USD this morning. Price action is in stasis as traders await any definitive developments heading into the weekend. There was some data for both pairs to digest this morning, but ultimately had little impact. Spanish inflation (Mar) rose at its fastest pace since 2024, amidst the Iranian war (but did miss expectations), whilst the UK’s Retail Sales topped expectations – though the survey period was before the Iranian war had begun.
• Elsewhere, the JPY is essentially flat against the USD, though price action has been volatile this morning for a number of factors. Overnight, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama provided some jawboning, which helped to strengthen the JPY. She suggested that she will take decisive steps on forex, including bold actions. USD/JPY troughed at 159.45 as markets digested her comments, though the pair rebounded off lows in the APAC session. The pair then took a leg higher as the European session got underway to make a peak at 159.97, approaching the touted “line in the sand” at 160.00. Some traders may see physical intervention as ineffective at this stage given the turbulent geopolitical environment, which could push the pair beyond the 160.00 mark. Moreover, ING opines that recent pressure in USTs may lead to less support from the US Treasury to conduct rate checks/intervention, given large-scale FX intervention could extend the Treasury sell-off.

Fixed Income

• A bearish session for fixed income as tensions remain high and rhetoric/reporting/activity around the Middle East ramps up into the weekend. As it stands, the main thing we are attentive to is any sign of a 'last strike' or ground incursion by the US.
• Initially, benchmarks were only modestly lower as crude was only USD 0.30-40/bbl into the green. However, throughout the morning, on reports of attacks at US military bases, Hormuz remaining closed, and continued reporting around a possible ground incursion, energy has lifted to the detriment of fixed income.
• USTs at a 109-27+ base, lower by c. 10 ticks, notching a fresh WTD and contract low. Similarly, Bunds are at a 124.28 base with downside of 70 ticks at most, also marking a WTD and contract low. Finally, Gilts are directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes larger, as has been the case in recent days. As above, the benchmark is at a WTD and contract low of 85.91, with losses of over a full point at most.
• Finally, Spanish preliminary CPI wasn't as hot as expected this morning for March, though the figure did come in markedly above the prior rate, with the headline a full point higher vs the prior; no move to the data. Within the series, INE wrote that the evolution of prices was "mainly due to the rise in prices of fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles."; i.e. signs that the Middle East situation is filtering through. Ahead, participants, as is the ECB, are particularly attentive to any signs of second-round inflationary effects.
• Italy sells EUR 5bln vs exp. EUR 4.0-5.0bln 2.85% 2031 and 3.45% 2036 BTP & EUR 3.5bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.5bln 1.468% 2035 CCTeu.

Commodities

• Crude initially fell after Trump paused attacks on Iran’s energy sector and signalled ongoing talks, but prices later turned higher, with Brent briefly topping USD 104/bbl (USD 99.01-104.18/bbl range) and WTI near USD 97/bbl (USD 92.08-96.75/bbl range). Dutch TTF prices trade flat intraday but remain at elevated levels north of EUR 55/MWh.
• Gold rose after Trump extended the Iran deadline, with bullion rebounding to around USD 4,450/oz after Thursday’s near 3% decline. The yellow metal came off its best levels as the USD strengthened amid the tilt to risk aversion in the early European morning.
• Copper is on track for its first weekly gain this month, supported by hopes that US efforts to end the Middle East war may avert a broader hit to global growth, though uncertainty over negotiations and potential troop deployments remains, whilst Iran continues attacks on US bases across the region. Further, China opened two probes against the US: 1) regarding trade practices, and 2) regarding green products. The probes are to conclude within six months but can be extended, MOFCOM said. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,138.00- 12,333.95/t range.
• India has reportedly sought a US waiver to purchase Russian LNG.
• India's Oil Minister said government has taken a huge hit on tax revenues to ensure very high losses of oil companies at the time of sky-high international prices are reduced.
• Japanese PM Takaichi says some respite will be given to LNG via the permit of additional coal use
• Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said firms are mulling oil supply sources such as Central Asia, and not ruling out any options for all supply sources.
• Australia PM Albanese said the country's fuel supply looks safe in the coming months.
• New Zealand Finance Minister said no current need for fuel restrictions and government updates national fuel plan with a four-phase response framework, said New Zealand is well-positioned for global shocks.
• Outage said to have occurred at Chevron (CVX)-operated Wheatstone platform, causing suspension of LNG and gas production.
• Shanghai International Energy Exchange is to diversify deliverable crude stream for crude oil futures; Buzios crude oil and Djeno crude oil will be added as deliverable crude stream.

Trade/Tariffs

• China's Commerce Ministry said it has launched a probe regarding US trade measures and measures that hinder trade in green products; China to investigate US trade practices starting March 27th; probe to conclude within six months but can be extended.
• China's MOFCOM spokesperson, on the US probes, said will take relevant measures based on the probe's findings.
• China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said China and the US should properly handle the relationship between competition and cooperation. China and the US should maintain close communication, look forward together, and promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations. China is willing to strengthen multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation with the US. China expressed serious concern regarding US Section 301 investigations against multiple economies, including China.
• China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao is said to have met with US Trade Representative Greer to discuss China-US trade relations.
• China's Commerce Minister said they are willing to expand imports from the EU and hopes the EU relaxes curbs on high-tech products. China is concerned about some EU members abusing industrial policies and violating subsidy discipline.
• China and EU auto industry bodies sign an MoU to promote cross-border data flow, state media reported.

Central Banks

• Fed's Barr (voter) said he has particular concern for long-run inflation expectations, adds the longer inflation remains above 2%, the greater the risk that it becomes entrenched. In a good place to hold rates and assess incoming data. The economy has remained resilient through a series of shocks, but these have complicated the Fed reaching its 2% inflation goal. It makes sense for the Fed to take time to assess economic developments before further policy changes. Extended war could have broad impact on prices and the economy. If the Middle East conflict ends soon, the economic impact could be limited, but broader implications remain if it persists.
• Fed's Jefferson (vice chair) said sustained high energy prices could worsen inflation and spending outlook, also noted trade policy and geopolitical tensions pose inflation risks. Current policy is appropriately positioned.
• Fed's Cook (voter) said uncertainty is elevated and balance of risks are largely on net in balance, adds sees inflation risk greater now as a result of the war in Iran and that it could have a substantial effect on inflation.
• Fed's Miran (voter) said Fed could cut balance sheet by USD 2tln without market turmoil, adds easing liquidity regulations could aid balance sheet cuts and Fed balance sheet reduction could take several years.
• BoJ said using the latest data, Japan's estimated neutral rate was in the range of around -0.9% to +0.5%; BoJ is presently adjusting degree of monetary accommodation towards a sustainable and stable 2% target. Given uncertainty surrounding estimates of the natural rate of interest, it is necessary to assess the degree of monetary accommodation in comprehensive manner, carefully examining economic activity, prices, and financial developments.
• EU ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (Feb) 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%). 97% of the responses were recorded before the onset of the war in the Middle East on 28 February; Median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months remained unchanged.
• ECB's Muller says ECB may not need full visibility of second round effects to act.
• ECB's Patsalides said there is not sufficient information now to make a decision on whether to look through inflation surge or to raise rates, but will not hesitate to hike. Longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored. Economy still developing along the baseline.
• BoE announces a simplification and reduction in the Discount Window Facility (DWF) pricing, as part of its previously announced review of the DWF. This Market Notice confirms lower and fixed pricing for DWF drawings against each collateral set, which will be set at 15bps for Level A collateral, 25bps for Level B collateral and 50bps for Level C collateral.
• UBS now sees the RBA hiking rates twice more to lift the Cash Rate to 4.60%.
• UBS expects the ECB to deliver two 25bp hikes in June and September this year (vs prev. forecast of unchanged).

Geopolitics

• Iran's IRGC Navy announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any traffic in this strait will be severely dealt with; traffic of any ship "to and from" the ports of origin of the allies of the enemies is prohibited from any corridor.
• US President Trump is weighing several options for dramatically escalating the war against Iran should his latest push for diplomacy fail, according to CNN.
• US President Trump said that Iran asked him to extend the pause and in a certain sense, we've already won, while he added that Iran made a request to him through his people and had asked for seven days, but he gave 10 days because of Hormuz 'gift'. Iran was very thankful.
• US is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, according to WSJ.
• "Things are progressing very slowly" in terms of negotiations between the US and Iran, i24's Stein reports; as it stands, no meeting has been scheduled between senior officials.
• Iranian officials are interested in negotiations despite the announcement of their rejection of the US proposal, while mediators are pressuring Tehran to agree to a meeting with Washington in the coming days, according to Axios.
• Mediators said Iran hasn’t requested a 10-day pause on strikes on its energy plants and is yet to deliver a final response to a 15-point plan to end the war, according to WSJ.
• "Iran, in order to reach a decision to end the war, basically does not receive the right signals from the US", IRNA reported.
• US VP Vance reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a phone call a few days ago that his assessments of the development of the war in Iran and the prospect of toppling the regime were too optimistic, Israeli N12 reports.
• US VP Vance is expected to be the main US negotiator in any potential peace discussions with Iran, Axios reports.
• The US has fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks of war with Iran, raising concern among some Pentagon officials about limited supplies, WaPo reports
• Iran's IRGC called on people in West Asia to urgently leave areas where American forces are stationed.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iranian defence shall persist as long as needed.
• UN Security Council has scheduled a closed consultation on Iran for Friday morning at the request of Russia, according to Times of Israel.
• Semafor writes "Why Trump’s latest Iran moves may signal ground troops". “The [administration] has played this same move three times in just one year,” said Jonathan Hackett, a former Marine Corps interrogator and special operations capabilities specialist. “Trump has also not ordered large-footprint military assets in either of his presidencies without actually using those forces.”.
• Explosions were heard at a site behind Mount Safah in Isfahan, central Iran, according to Al Hadath citing Iranian media; "Bombing a site near the Abadan refinery, southwest of Ahvaz".
• Sources report explosions caused by an attack on American bases in Saudi Arabia, Tasnim reported.
• Explosions reported today at American bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Iran's ISNA reported.
• Explosions heard in Tehran, while a report also noted the bombing of a Revolutionary Guard headquarters in the city of Kashan, central Iran.
• Explosions sound in Iran's capital Tehran, according to Al Jazeera.
• "Kuwait Ports Corporation: Shuwaikh Port was attacked by drones, which caused material damage without human injuries", via Sky News Arabia.
• Reports of a drone attack on the headquarters of the US military in Kuwait, IRIB News reported.
• Arab sources report missile attacks against American bases in the UAE, according to SNN.
• Iranian Revolutionary Guard said they targeted oil tanks and depots and an Israeli army site in Ashdod, according to Al Jazeera.
• Informed military source announced the new strategic plan of Iran's armed forces in accordance with the developments in the field and, referring to the role of the UAE and Bahrain in supporting the recent US threat of a ground attack on Iranian islands.
• UAE pushes for international force to reopen Hormuz, according to FT. 
• Russia's President Putin asks oligarchs to contribute to budget amid soaring costs of Ukraine war, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: United States Mar F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 54, prior 55.5
• 11:00 am: United States Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 11:30 am: United States Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
• 11:30 am: United States Fed’s Daly Speaks at Monetary Policy Conference

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This time last year I went on a two week holiday just as Liberation Day hit and today is my last day before this year’s equivalent. Last year’s wasn’t really a holiday with all the commotion, and given the pressing deadlines in the Iranian conflict I’m not sure this one will be either. Henry and Peter will be keeping you up to date in my absence. If you don’t hear from me for two weeks consider that as very good news for markets and vice-versa. 

Markets were approaching the end of the week in a nervous mood as they have tended to do as we near the weekends in this conflict with risk premium being added. A bit of that premium has been taken out overnight though after Trump posted that he would extend by 10 days his pledge not to attack Iran’s power plants, with his earlier 5-day deadline having been due to expire today. This came after the S&P 500 had posted its worst day (-1.74%) since the Iran war began. S&P futures are up +0.56% as I type this morning. Similarly, Brent crude is trading -0.55% at $107.42/bbl, reversing a small portion of yesterday’s +5.66% rise. So we’ve seen only a mini easing of the market tension that drove 10yr bund yields to post-2011 highs yesterday. Similar bond market stress is also being felt in Asia this morning, where Japanese 10yr JGB yields are +7.7bps higher as I type. The USD/JPY has also retreated over the last 24 hours to come within touching levels of 160 for the first time since 2024. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said overnight that some of the moves are “speculative”, driven by oil-related trading. Given the use of the “speculative move” label is often used to justify intervention, the market is understandably putting some stock in these comments with the sell-off slightly easing.

Asian equities are more in wait and see mode with the Hang Seng (+0.83%) and CSI 300 (+0.70%) higher but with the KOSPI (-0.55%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.10%) weaker. Part of the KOSPI’s weakness is also due to the ongoing sell-off in South Korean chipmaker stocks from Google’s memory chip announcement.

Recapping that Trump post just after the US equity close, the President said he was “pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6”. He claimed that this was done “as per Iranian Government request” and that “talks are ongoing and… they are going very well”. While a kneejerk reaction saw Brent fall by as much as $4.50/bbl in response, most of this move proved fleeting, and Brent crude is currently trading within touching distance of the level it was at before Trump’s post. While the delay might reduce some of the immediate escalation risk, it offers no new visibility on the path towards resolution, given Iran’s denials over talks, and while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

More concrete signs of talks would surely be taken positively by investors, but they also have to grapple with the potential for further escalation, with the Wall Street Journal reporting last night that the US was considering sending as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East. Indeed, growing fears of escalation drove a more negative market mood yesterday, not least as Trump had earlier sounded more doubtful on the prospects of a deal, saying that he didn’t know “if we’re willing to work on a deal with Iran”, and that he “didn’t care” when asked by reporters if he wanted to end the war. Admittedly, we did hear from Iran’s Tasnim news agency that they’d responded to the US 15-point ceasefire proposal and were waiting for the US to respond.

Yesterday’s fears about fresh escalation prompted global equities to sharply reverse their gains from recent days. Both the S&P 500 (-1.74%) and the Nasdaq (-2.38%) saw the biggest declines since the start of the war and fell back to their lowest levels since September, while the VIX index (+2.11pts) rose to 27.44pts, its highest since March 6. Part of that selloff was also driven by the ongoing rout from Tuesday’s announcement that Google had found a new algorithm that could reduce the memory chip amount needed in AI models. The news caused the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to fall -4.79%, while the Mag 7 also fell -3.17%, bringing its YTD decline to -13.3%. Nvidia (remember them?) fell -4.16%. Meanwhile in Europe the STOXX 600 (-1.13%), DAX (-1.50%), FTSE 100 (-1.33%) and CAC 40 (-0.98%) were also all weak.

Growing fears of a stagflationary shock also weighed on bond markets, with some huge moves for European sovereigns in particular. In fact, yesterday saw 10yr bund yields (+11.5bps) post their biggest daily jump in a year, back when the government announced the historic reforms to the debt brake last March. Moreover, that pushed the 10yr bund yield up to 3.07%, its highest closing level since mid-2011, back when the Euro crisis was in full swing. And it was a similar story elsewhere, with 10yr OATs (+14.9bps) seeing their biggest daily jump in over a year, reaching a post-2009 high of 3.80%.

Those moves came as investors dialled up the chance of faster central bank rate hikes once again. So for the ECB, the probability of an April rate was back up to 73%. And over at the Fed, a hike is now more than 50% priced as soon as the October meeting. That came as we also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said in an interview with The Economist that markets may be too optimistic on the Iran situation, with the fallout from the damage potentially taking years to undo. In the meantime, US Treasuries also witnessed aggressive moves, with the 10yr Treasury (+8.1bps) picking up to 4.41%, its highest close since July, whilst the 2yr yield (+9.9bps) hit its highest since June, at 3.99%.
Looking forward, today we’ll get the first of the Euro Area’s flash inflation figures for March with the Spanish release, which will be the first to reflect the conflict’s impact on energy prices, so stay tuned for that. That comes ahead of Germany’s release on Monday, before the Euro Area-wide release on Tuesday. In light of the ongoing conflict, our European economists have updated their inflation forecasts, seeing headline HICP rising to +2.58% y/y in March (vs +1.89% previously). 

Otherwise yesterday, Norway’s central bank held their deposit rate at 4% as expected, but markets took the decision in a hawkish light after they signalled a rate hike was likely at an upcoming meeting. So markets are now pricing in 43bps of hikes by the August meeting, up from 28bps the previous day, and the Norwegian Krone was the second-best performing G10 currency on the day after the US dollar.

Finally, in a parallel universe the markets were closely watching the latest US data, with initial jobless claims inching up a touch to 210k, in line with consensus, while continuing claims came in at 1.819m (vs. 1.849m expected).

To the day ahead now, we’ll get the US March Kansas City Fed services activity, UK February retail sales. Central bank events include the ECB consumer expectations survey, and the Fed’s Daly and Paulson will speak.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 08:29

First Qatar Supply Shock, Now Cyclone Chaos Slams Major Australian LNG Plants

In a troubling overnight development that could further deepen the Gulf energy shock, especially in global LNG markets, a tropical cyclone has disrupted operations at three major Australian LNG facilities, which together account for roughly 8.4% of global supply. The timing is alarming: Iranian strikes have already knocked out about 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, with repairs potentially taking years. The Australian outages now add near-term supply risks for buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe, who are already panicking and scrambling for new supplies.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is bearing down on Western Australia's coastline and has sparked major disruptions across three of Australia's top LNG facilities, including Gorgon, Wheatstone, and North West Shelf (as per Bloomberg): 

• Woodside Energy Group Ltd.'s North West Shelf export plant in Western Australia had a production interruption due to severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, according to a company spokesperson.

• Meanwhile, Chevron Corp. said one of the three production units at its Gorgon plant was shut, as well as a platform that feeds its Wheatstone facility and domestic gas production.

• Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian strikes damaging the world's largest liquefaction plant in Qatar, Australia has become the second-largest LNG exporter, with the US in the top spot.

"Temporary shut-ins at Australian LNG plants come at the worst time for LNG buyers looking to replace supply from Qatar," said Josh Runciman, lead analyst for Australian gas at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. "LNG spot prices are likely to increase on the back of the shut-ins, leading to further pain for buyers."

MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic warned the cyclone "will exacerbate gas market tightness in Asia and Europe, especially if it takes more than a matter of days to normalize Australian production levels again."

Asian LNG prices have soared by 90% since the conflict in the Middle East erupted in late February, and the conflict is set to enter its first month. In Europe, natural gas prices have doubled since the start of the conflict.

The big question now is whether Australia's Gorgon, Wheatstone, and North West Shelf facilities, which together accounted for roughly half of the country's LNG exports last month and about 8.4% of global trade, can resume operations quickly once the cyclone passes. Any meaningful storm damage would risk extending outages, further tightening the global LNG market in crisis, and compounding supply woes for buyers in Asia and Europe. 

Amid the chaos, one country stands to benefit (read here).

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 08:20

Did Melania Trump's White House Walk With Humanoid Robot Signal Admin's Push Into Physical AI

The White House on Wednesday hosted an education summit featuring first lady Melania Trump walking side by side with an American-made humanoid robot. 

"Figure 03" AI-powered robot accompanies first lady Melania Trump to a White House summit on empowering children with educational technology. pic.twitter.com/RShdfvEG38

— CSPAN (@cspan) March 25, 2026

The robot's placement at a White House event suggests the technology wing of the Trump administration is pivoting toward physical AI, with the next chapter increasingly centered on American-made humanoid robotics.

A Politico report in December revealed that the administration was preparing to go "all in" on accelerating humanoid robotics, with sources saying White House officials were considering an executive order sometime this year.

Melania's appearance alongside the Figure 03 robot may be the clearest signal yet that the administration is preparing to embrace robotics as the next natural progression of physical AI.

Also on Wednesday, Jefferies analysts published an insightful note titled, "Humanoid Robots Begin to Clock In"...

"Given recent advancements in materials science, battery technology and, most importantly, AI/processing, the dream of larger-scale deployments is edging closer to reality," the analysts wrote.

With humanoid robots now entering factory floors, and, as we have also pointed out, soon the battlefield, deployment of these autonomous machines in real-world commercial applications is set to ramp up this year and next. 

How to profit 

The analysts provided clients with a company breakdown of the most critical companies supplying components to humanoid robots, outlining where clients may be positioned to get the most exposure as the industry gears up for increased deployments 

Deployment Begins

The deployment timeline for these robots on factory floors is set to ramp this year and next, then accelerate sharply into the end of the decade before taking a quantum leap in the early 2030s.

Why

The analysts pointed to three structural forces set to accelerate mass adoption: 

• Aging populations, particularly in China and other developed markets, are increasing demand for labor supplementation and assistance.

• Declining interest in manufacturing jobs among younger generations is creating labor mismatches across global supply chains.

• Breakthroughs in semiconductors and AI are sharply improving robot intelligence and functionality while reducing costs.

The other major breakthrough is labor cost: With workers demanding $20 to $25 per hour and much higher rates for skilled jobs, companies could operate these robots on a fully loaded basis for between $2 and $3 per hour after accounting for operating costs.

Mass adoption of these robots, with price points around $25,000 by 2030, would make them very appealing for companies looking to automate low-skilled tasks and drive down labor costs. 

The analysts noted that robots are already beginning to invade factory floors. As they wrote, "In late '24, California-based Figure AI achieved a milestone by delivering its Figure 02 humanoid robot to a paying client. Around the same time in China, UBTech Robotics began the world's first large-scale deployment of full-sized humanoid robots."

Melania walking with a humanoid robot this week may mark an early signal that the Trump administration is preparing to accelerate the American-made humanoid robotics, assuming policy support has already been drafted, which could spark an investment cycle into companies in the same field, both public and private.

Professional subscribers can read the full "From Asimov to the Assembly Line: Humanoid Robots Begin to Clock In" at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 07:45

K-Shaped Economy Bites Back: Retail CRE Transactions For Shops, Malls Plunge

February U.S. commercial real estate transaction activity appeared soft on the surface, but Goldman analysts believe the weak initial print will likely be revised meaningfully higher. The most notable area of weakness in last month’s transaction data was across the retail space, which is not especially surprising as the K-shaped economy continues to pressure lower-income consumers.

Goldman real estate analyst Julien Blouin wrote Wednesday that the initial February reading on CRE transaction volumes showed a 13% year-over-year decline. He noted that transaction data from MSCI Real Assets is typically "revised materially higher" and said the early print is not a major cause for concern.

Blouin added that prior months were revised higher by roughly 24% to 25% on average, suggesting the final February reading will likely show transaction growth in the high single-digit territory once the data is finalized.

February Transaction Volumes

Volumes are muted and well below Covid surge. Need rates lower. 

Deal activity is improving in some areas, especially office and industrial. Multifamily faced a much tougher comparison versus the same period last year, so the decline looks a lot worse than the underlying trend. The sharpest drop in CRE transactions was in retail, which includes shops, strip malls, convenience stores, restaurants, and malls.

CRE bucket breakdown for February:

• Multifamily/apartments: down 24% year over year

• Office: up 9%

• Industrial: up 15%

• Retail: down 61%

Retail CRE volumes plunged 

Blouin did not get into the details of the slump in retail deal activity, but it does appear buyers may still be selective in retail, due in part to the K-shaped economy, which is pressuring lower-income consumers’ ability to go out and spend at restaurants and shops.

Related:

• AI Takeover Complete: Data Center Construction Surpasses Office Construction For The First Time

The takeaway is that the sharp drop in retail CRE transactions likely reflects buyer caution around consumer-exposed properties, given everything we know about the K-shaped economy.

Professional subscribers can read the full Goldman note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• I Did Not Predict What Is Going on in Privates: They are not low-volatility, low-correlated (to equities) investments. Not marking something doesn’t make it low risk. I’m not going to rehash it here, but please consult prior work for why the ostrich isn’t truly safe from the lion. The same, of course, applies to private credit. The lion doesn’t care if the ostrich is first loss or higher up in the capital structure. (AQR)

• Fundrise’s venture fund, which owns private tech giants like Anthropic and SpaceX, surges as retail investors pile in: The fund’s blockbuster public debut underscores how hungry retail investors are to get a piece of private companies. (Sherwood)

• The Golden Paradox: If gold is a safe haven and inflation hedge, why is it falling hard amid war and inflation fears? (Fisher Investments)

• The economic consequences of the Iran war: The U.S. is likely to get off easy, while others will bear the brunt. (Noahpinion)

• Tesla’s Secret Weapon Is a Giant Metal Box: Elon Musk’s car company is quietly poised to power the AI boom. (The Atlantic)

• They’re Rich but Not Famous—and They’re Suddenly Everywhere: The number of Americans worth eight or even nine figures is up markedly. It’s transforming the U.S. economy. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Humiliation of Tulsi Gabbard: Trump’s director of national intelligence has spent her career arguing against a war with Iran. Now, she’s the public face for one, and her former allies are furious. (Vanity Fair)

• American Aviation Is Near Collapse: Fatal crashes, overstressed controllers, and endless security lines reveal a system teetering on the brink of failure. (The Atlantic) see also This Is Why Flying Is So Awful: If you remember the days of ample leg room, metal silverware and complimentary drinks, you know flying hasn’t always been like this. That’s largely because of deregulation. After the Wall Street crash of 1929 nearly caused the airline industry to collapse, the government stepped in with a comprehensive regulatory system. (New York Times)

• These animals can cause big trouble. Why are states unleashing them by the millions? Introduced species can wreak havoc on native ecosystems. Many states are flooding their waterways with them. (Vox)

• The Obscure Maestro Who Shocked the Tournament’s Defending Champions: Ben McCollum, a coaching guru from Division II, just guided the Iowa Hawkeyes over No. 1 Florida. The result stunned everyone except the coach himself. (Wall Street Journal)

 

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Judd Kessler, the Howard Marks Endowed Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The winner of the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize,he is the author of is Lucky by Design The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want.

 

US Mortgage Rates Jump Further to Five-Month High of 6.43%

Source: Bloomberg

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

UK Pushes Ahead With Temporary Ban On Political Crypto Donations

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

The UK government is advancing plans for a moratorium on political donations made through cryptocurrencies, following an independent review and pressure from multiple high-ranking politicians.

Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday that the Rycroft Review, an independent inquiry into foreign financial interference in the UK’s political and electoral systems, recommended a moratorium on crypto donations to political parties.

New statements from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday have confirmed that the government will pursue the temporary ban.

“I can tell the House we will act decisively to protect our democracy. That will include a moratorium on all political donations made through cryptocurrencies,” said Starmer during Prime Minister's Question Time on Wednesday.

Several members of parliament, including the chair of the security committee, have been pushing for a full ban this year, warning that foreign states could exploit crypto payments to influence UK politics.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged a moratorium on all crypto political donations. Source: YouTube 

Under the new measure, crypto will be prohibited for political donations until robust regulations are in place to prevent untraceable funds and foreign interference in UK elections, according to a separate government statement on Wednesday.

Bill still has to pass and become law

The ban would require amending the Representation of the People Bill, and the government said the changes would take “retrospective effect” from March 25.

The legislation is at the committee stage in the House of Commons. It needs to pass through both the House of Commons and the House of Lords, then receive royal assent from King Charles III to become law.

The legislation is still at the committee stage in the House of Commons. Source: UK Parliament 

“Once the legislation comes into force, political parties and regulated entities like candidates and MPs will then have 30 days to return any unlawful donations they may have received in the interim, after which enforcement action can be taken,” the government said.

Reform UK was the first political party in the country to accept crypto donations in May last year, with leader Nigel Farage announcing at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas that the group would accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from eligible donors.

Ban will not be lifted until sign-off from government

Once the ban comes into force, it won’t lift until “Parliament and the Electoral Commission are satisfied that the regulatory environment is robust enough to ensure confidence and transparency in donations being made in this way.”

The next general election in the UK must be held by Aug. 15, 2029.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 06:30

EU Accuses Hungary Of 'Pro-Russian Espionage'

Authored by Lucas Leiroz de Almeida via InfoBrics,

The rhetorical escalation between Budapest and Brussels continues to grow. Now, the EU accuses Hungary of actively sabotaging Europe by passing strategic information about the bloc to the Russian side. This type of serious accusation could never be made without proof, yet it has become common practice for the Western liberal regimes to accuse its rival countries of “collaborating with Russia” even without any evidence.

In a recent statement, the Hungarian Foreign Minister responded to recent European accusations of pro-Russian "espionage" by Hungarian authorities. According to the Hungarian minister, the EU is spreading lies and fake news about Hungary to try to influence the anti-Orban opposition, hoping to obtain a pro-EU result in the upcoming Hungarian elections.

Szijjarto's words were especially directed at Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who had previously repeated rumors that Hungarian officials had informed Russia about sensitive details of the European bloc's meetings. Tusk acted extremely irresponsibly by spreading unconfirmed rumors on his social media – and even calling on the EU to take action against Hungary.

"The news that Orbán’s people inform Moscow about EU Council meetings in every detail shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. We’ve had our suspicions about that for a long time. That’s one reason why I take the floor only when strictly necessary and say just as much as necessary," Tusk said.

Szijjarto made it clear that Tusk's words are an attempt to provoke dissent in Hungary and mobilize the opposition against the government during the election period. However, he expressed optimism about the Hungarian government's ability to overcome these challenges, recalling that recent attempts by Brussels to defeat the pro-Orban coalition had failed due to strong popular support for the government.

“Instead of spreading lies and fake news, come to Budapest to support the opposition! Last time it worked… for us (...) You [Tusk] should come to Budapest before April 12 as well! Four years ago, you were the star speaker at the opposition rally, after which we won the elections by 20 percent. Think about it, Budapest is a great place to be,” he said.

Not only did Tusk spread such rumors about Hungary, but even major Western newspapers decided to spread these allegations, despite lacking any concrete evidence to support them. Politico, for example, published an article on the subject, citing various sources among European parliamentarians and officials, mentioning that the EU will take appropriate measures to prevent the leak of its data – including limiting the presence of Hungarian officials in secret meetings.

The sources told Politico that the case is not surprising, as Hungary and Russia have supposedly been "working together" for a long time to harm the EU. Szijjarto was described by the sources as a personal friend of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and as a "traitor" to his homeland.

“The fact that the Hungarian foreign minister, a close friend of [Russian Foreign Minister] Sergey Lavrov, has been reporting to the Russians practically minute by minute from every EU meeting is outright treason (...) This man has not only betrayed his own country, but Europe as well,” one of the sources told Politico.

It is absolutely reprehensible that this type of content is shared by the mainstream media. Respected newspapers should only share fact-based and verified content, not politically motivated and provocative rumors. Similarly, comments from sources whose sole purpose is to attack other European officials, without providing concrete evidence, should be removed by editors.

However, the mainstream Western media has a clear objective in the Hungarian elections: to help the opposition and create a political atmosphere hostile to Orban's team. Brussels and its allies, like Tusk, want to reverse the sovereign foreign policy established by the Orban government and induce Hungary to shift towards pro-Ukraine and anti-Russian tendencies. To this end, methods such as spreading lies to provoke the Hungarian electorate are being used.

It would be no surprise if Hungary suffered even harsher measures, such as a total ban from EU meetings or even sanctions. Despite the lack of evidence, Brussels has already made it clear that it opposes Orban and will do everything possible to overthrow him. There have already been direct threats of sanctions against Hungary on previous occasions, and it is possible that this will be repeated.

However, what will happen is the opposite of what European bureaucrats expect: the more threatened Hungary is, the more Eurosceptic and critical of Brussels' agendas it will become.

 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 05:00

Iran Conflict Drives Surge In China EV Demand

A sharp rise in oil prices tied to the US-Israel confrontation with Iran is likely to speed up the global transition to electric vehicles, strengthening a shift that has already helped China overtake Japan as the world’s top car seller, according to South China Morning Post.

Crude prices have surged past $100 a barrel amid fears of disruption to energy supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump escalated tensions by warning he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if shipping through the strait was not restored within 48 hours.

Analysts say such risks could have a direct impact on consumer behavior. “The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could be a game-changer for EVs,” said David Brown of Wood Mackenzie. He noted that the recent “eye-watering” 50 per cent spike in oil prices would make electric vehicles more financially attractive. “In those countries with access to low-cost Chinese EVs, the competitive advantage over gasoline-engined cars will come even sooner.”

HSBC economist Justin Feng echoed that view, arguing that prolonged volatility in fuel markets would reinforce EVs as a clear “cost-savings proposition,” particularly across Asia where price sensitivity is high.

SCMP writes that the broader shift is already underway. The number of countries where EVs make up more than 10 per cent of car sales has risen dramatically in recent years, reaching 39 compared with just four in 2019. Adoption has been especially rapid in developing economies, in some cases outpacing wealthier nations.

China stands to benefit significantly from this trend. Its automakers became the world’s largest sellers of vehicles in 2025, ending Japan’s long-held dominance. Companies such as BYD and Geely have also moved ahead of Japanese rivals including Nissan and Honda, while Chinese brands now make up a growing share of the global top 20 by sales.

Exports have played a major role in that rise. China shipped 8.32 million vehicles overseas last year, a 30 per cent increase, with electric vehicles accounting for 2.32 million units, up 38 per cent. Europe remains the biggest market, followed by Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.

At the same time, higher energy costs could create complications for EV production in the near term. Manufacturing remains energy-intensive, leaving some countries exposed to rising fuel costs. Thailand, which relies heavily on energy imports from the Gulf, is particularly vulnerable.

China, however, is expected to be better positioned to absorb such shocks thanks to its more integrated supply chains and greater flexibility in energy sourcing, allowing its EV sector to continue expanding even amid global uncertainty.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/27/2026 - 04:15