Angry Bear

Slower Job Growth Path

This is one of the issues, I am not an expert on. I know the numbers. If I track them, I can arrive to a conclusion. It is people like New Deal democrat and Dean Baker who can explain them to the degree you may wish to know. They give the reasons why and how […]

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AI: Manhattan Project or Jurassic Park?

Let’s hand the microphone to Garrett Graff: “Most people think of Jurassic Park as a cautionary tale for science, when really it’s a cautionary tale for corporate trust and safety teams, board oversight, and regulatory compliance. The dinosaurs’ entirely predictable rampage should really be seen as a failure of the security teams and the fence […]

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A “quick and dirty” look at anticipated consumer inflation in July

– by New Deal democrat Tomorrow we’ll get the CPI report for July. At first, I thought this might resume the upward spike of April and May — but maybe not. My “quick and dirty” way to create a back of the envelope estimate of consumer inflation is to divide the change in gas prices (conservatively) […]

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Quote of the day

The Citizenship Clause was indeed written to repudiate Dred Scott, the 1857 Supreme Court decision holding that Black people could never be citizens. But the Reconstruction Congress did not swap one caste rule for a narrower one; it extended the promise to “every free-born person in this land.” The idea wasn’t just to retroactively protect […]

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One State Does It Right – Colorado State legislature extends supplemental state ACA subsides thru 2027

Quite a few people are dropping healthcare insurance because they can not afford it. If they are above the limits for subsidies, they are risking themselves and family to a financial catastrophe. I have done this myself when the children were gone and I was without a position. One state has chosen to support people […]

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Scenes, both positive and negative, from the July employment report

– by New Deal democrat As per usual, there’s no economic news today, the first Monday after the employment report. So let’s dig into some detail about what was naughty and what was nice from Friday’s anemic report. Let me start with the naughty, and in particular the -50,000 job losses (seasonally adjusted) in local education. […]

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Trump publicizes the vaccine-ASD fable

From Medpage Today: “Speaking about the order at the Oval Office on Monday, Trump repeatedly suggested the number or timing of vaccines could play a role in rising rates of autism spectrum disorder . . .” Uh, no. What’s been rising is the rate of ASD *diagnoses,” due to changes in classification criteria and increased […]

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Resisting Trump and the Green Lantern theory of Congress

According to the political data site fifty plus one, Trump currently has a net disapproval of 24 points.  At the same time, the Democrats remain unpopular.  The net disapproval of the Democrats has hovered around 15 points, about the same as the Republicans.  The Democrats lead in the generic ballot, but only by 6 points […]

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Surge in the Uninsured Patients at Hospitals, etc

Brief review as to what is happening in healthcare since Trump whacked ACA insurance for roughly 3 million citizens initially. More to come for the uninsured as this plays out. Costs did increase at hospitals and other healthcare sites (doctors, clinics, etc.). For the millions voting for Tr__p, I hope this is what you wanted. […]

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Oil . . .

Just Information on supply and what is happening in the short term. I suspect if Trump keeps fooling around with the Middle East, we could experience some types of short-term shortages as reported via news. It will then grow bigger than the reality. Conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran keep oil markets on edge as […]

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Quote of the day

And in the age of cheap drones, you can’t really defend against it. As we are seeing, it doesn’t take long to deplete any missile defenses you have, and no one has missile defenses covering everything anyway. Maybe most of these attacks won’t amount to much, but sometimes… We are ruled by people who have […]

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CMS finalizes higher Medicare Advantage rates

CMS finalizes higher Medicare Advantage rates for 2027 in gift to insurers, Healthcare Dive Trump administration finalized significantly higher Medicare Advantage rates for 2027 than it had proposed after a full-court lobbying press from the insurance industry — and despite dogged concerns about overpayments in the privatized Medicare program. On Monday, the CMS locked in an […]

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New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for August 3-7

Weekly Indicators for August 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha The choice of what to highlight this week was very easy, because it was practically screamed from this following graph: Corporate profits were through the roof in Q2, driven not just by AI-related companies but even more by the tidal wave of windfall profits by […]

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The Communist Manifesto

I’m currently auditing an online lecture series by historian Timothy Snyder on Hitler and Stalin. The most recent lecture was on Communism. Snyder recommends that his students read The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. It’s mercifully short and the Kindle version cost 99 cents, so I read it. As I say, it’s short and […]

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The People v USPS

Bit of an Introduction: Steve Hutkins writes “Save the Post Office.” The website was created in 2011, when Steve’s local post office in New York’s Hudson Valley was in danger of closing. Steve’s “day job” was as an English professor (now retired) who taught place studies and travel literature at the Gallatin School of New […]

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Quote of the day

Real threats do not require social influencers, since they are obvious to all. No one had to convince Americans after Pearl Harbor that the danger was great and sacrifice imperative. They saw it clearly and acted. When a modern cable news anchor reports with a smirk that the opposition is destroying this once great republic, […]

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My updated “consumer nowcast” is up, plus more confirmation in the June JOLTS report

– by New Deal democrat Yesterday I posted the update of my “consumer nowcast” over at Seeking Alpha.   As a refresher, this system looks at the various sources that can power increased consumer spending, which is 70% of the economy. When all of those sources are shut down, a recession almost invariably occurs. Unsurprisingly, the only […]

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Small Update: Statement on the FRA’s Phase I Report on Penn Station, NY

There is a need in the United States for alternative ways of travel other than by airplane or private vehicles. Trains do offer such a way of longer distance travel. Taking a train often times can be less costly than driving a car and cheaper than flying to your destination. This is considering a day […]

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Why I take pictures

Most days I go on walks of 4-6 miles in the nearby woods. I bring my camera. I tell people that it gives me something to do with my hands. But it’s more than that. I learned the basics of photography in high school. I used many of those skills as a postdoc and well […]

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