GDI

Q1 2016 GDP Revised Upward to 1.1%

Q1 GDP was revised upward to 1.1%.  Originally GDP was estimated to be 0.5%, then revised up to 0.8% and now reported to be 1.1%.  While consumer spending was revised somewhat lower again, exports came to the rescue and bumped up Q1 GDP.  Private investment contraction was less than originally estimated as well.  Now GDP is still weak but not anything to be concerned about.  Seems revisions always change the economic growth story and Q1 is no exception.

It's Official, We're Negative, GDP -0.7% for First Quarter

If is official.  It happened.  First quarter 2015 real GDP just went negative with a -0.7% contraction.  Remember folks, two consecutive quarters of negative growth can make up an official recession.  In reality the revision is a one percentage point slide.  Psychologically speaking, contraction isn't too swift as it often pricks bubble minds that blow hot air all over as they deflate.  The reason for the negative revision is imports.

Q4 2014 GDP Revised Down to 2.2%

Fourth quarter 2014 real GDP was revised 0.4 percentage points lower to 2.2%.  That's quite disappointing, although still mediocre growth.  The reason for the revision reduction was inventories did not grow nearly as much as originally estimated and imports increased.  Real consumer spending was barely revised.  Overall Q4 GDP cutting isn't that surprising, more Q3 GDP's lack of trade deficit impact was.

 

Q3 2014 GDP Revised Up to a Whopping 5.0%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised up even further to a whopping 5.0%.  Merry Christmas Wall Street as the Dow closed above 18,000, a record high.  This is the highest quarterly GDP since Q3 2003, a full eleven years ago.  The reason for the revision blow out was consumer spending and investment.  Real consumer spending was revised up almost 3/4th of a percentage point more than the first revision previously reported.

Q3 GDP Surprisingly Revised Upward by Half a Percentage Point to 3.9%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised upward to 3.9% from the original 3.5%.  The reason was investment, as changes in private inventories were revised sharply upward.  Consumer spending was also stronger by over a quarter of a percentage point and also bumped up the revision.  Imports were revised upward and exports downward which subtracted from economic growth.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly strong in this Turkey surprise.

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.

GDP Revised Down to 1.8% for Q1 2013

Q1 2013 real GDP was revised downward to 1.8% from 2.4%.   This is fairly bad news, as fourth quarter 0.4% GDP already showed a stagnant economy.   The revisions were so extensive it is like reading a different report.  Consumer spending was the biggest downward revision followed by significantly less exports than originally reported.

GDP Revised Down Slightly to 2.4% for Q1 2013

Q1 2013 real GDP was revised downward slightly to 2.4% from 2.5%.   This is still an improvement, from the fourth quarter 0.4% GDP showing a stagnant economy.   Consumer spending was the biggest improvement while increased imports posed a major economic drag.  Government spending declines continue to be an economic damper.  The revision shows more consumer spending than originally reported, less investment, less imports, less exports and government expenditures were less than previously estimated.  Generally speaking a 2.4% GDP implies moderate economic growth, yet overall real demand in the economy is still fairly weak.