GDP revisions

2nd Quarter GDP Down a Record 32.9% After Revisions From 2015 to Present

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The 5 year annual growth rate of personal consumption was revised down from 2.8% to 2.7%, the 5 year annual growth rate of private investment was revised up from 2.2% to 2.5%, the annual growth rate of exports was revised from 1.1% to 1.3%, the annual growth rate of imports was revised from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the growth of government investment and consumption was revised to a 1.9% rate from the 1.8% rate that had been indicated by GDP reports prior to this revision...

Construction contribution to Q1 GDP under-reported by 47 basis points, despite 1.7% drop in March

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Construction spending fell 1.7% in March, after construction spending for both January and February were revised much higher.  The Census Bureau's report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month's seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,284.7 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 1.7 percent (±0.8%) below the revised annualized February estimate of $1,306.4 billion

Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP & Revisions From 2014 to Present

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The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included an annual revision to the past 3 years of GDP releases, revising previously published data from the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2017, which on net indicated that US economic growth over the period from 2014 to 2016 was at a 2.3% annual rate, revised from the 2.2% composite annual growth previously published for that period

January's Trade Off to a Bad Start; On Track to Knock a Half Point Off Q1 GDP

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Our trade deficit rose by 2.2% January, while the net value of both our exports and our imports decreased.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for January indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $1.0 billion to $45.7 billion in January from a December deficit which was revised from $43.4 billion to $44.7 billion

On the Revision of 3rd Quarter GDP from a 1.5% Growth Rate to a 2.1% Rate

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As was widely expected,  the Second Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 2.1% rate in the 2nd quarter, revised from the 1.5% growth rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as fixed investment and inventories were revised higher while exports were revised lower.

Impact of Sept Inventories and Oct Retail Sales and Import Prices on 3rd Qtr GDP

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There were four reports released last week with new data that will impact 3rd quarter growth in GDP when the 2nd estimate is released on November 24. Those are the September report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories (pdf), the composite Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report for September (pdf), the Advance Retail Sales Report for October (pdf) , and the Import and Export Price Indexes for October.

September Trade Revisions Will Add 11 Basis Points to 3rd quarter GDP

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Our trade deficit fell by 15.0% in September, virtually reversing the 15.6% jump in August, as the value of our exports rose and the value of our imports fell.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for September indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $7.2 billion to $41.8 billion in September from an August deficit which was revised from $48.3 billion to $48.0 billion.