With estimates of the relative change in real PCE goods between the months of the 3rd and the months of the 4th quarter, we are also able to estimate the change in real PCE goods between those two quarters.
Now that we have estimates of the percentage change in real PCE goods for all three months of the first quarter, we can also estimate the contribution that real PCE goods will make to 1st quarter GDP
December 2016 retail sales increased by 0.6% and are up a whopping 4.1% from a year ago. November's retail sales were revised to a 0.2% monthly increase. The reason for December's gain were automobile sales, online sales and gas. Auto sales blew through the roof at a 2.4% monthly increase and gas did also on rising prices. Without autos & parts sales, retail sales would have increased only 0.2% for the month.
July 2016 retail sales were a real Wall Street let down as there was no change from June. Gasoline sales plunged by -2.7%, yet most retailers had declining sales. Auto sales and Amazon prime day were not enough to salvage overall retail sales. Without autos & parts sales, retail sales would have dropped by -0.3% for the month.
Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.5% in May after retail sales for March and April were revised slightly higher.. The Advance Retail Sales Report for May (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $455.6 billion for the month, which was an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from April's revised sales of $453.6 billion and 2.5 percent (±0.7%) above the adjusted sales of May of last year.
April 2016 retail sales really popped up as auto sales roared. Retail sales increased 1.3% for the month and auto dealers sales surged by 3.5%. Without autos & parts sales, retail sales still had a great showing with a monthly 0.8% gain. Gasoline station sales have also shot up as prices rose, a 2.2% increase for the month.
The February 2016 Retail Sales report shows retail sales decreased -0.1% for the month as gasoline sales plunged by -4.4%. Without autos & parts sales, retail sales still decreased by -0.1%. Gasoline sales have dropped -15.6% from a year ago. Declining gasoline sales are once again responsible for the disappointing figures, as without gas stations considered, retail sales increased by a modest 0.2%.
The consumer price index was flat in November as lower prices for food, energy and core goods offset higher prices for services. The Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that seasonally adjusted prices were unchanged in November after rising 0.2% in October and falling 0.2% in September.
The November 2015 Retail Sales report shows retail sales increased 0.2% for the month as auto sales slid by -0.6% and gasoline sales declined -0.8%. Without autos & parts sales, retail sales increased 0.4%.
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