The Bipolar Economy

The past two weeks have shown shocking stock market moves of 500 points or more, both directions.

dow jones 5 day

Panic selling, panic buying, who knows just how much was lost in the volatility, changing of the rules daily and turmoil.

So, while all of the focus is about propping up a semi-insolvent financial system, what about the actual people?

Murder, Suicides and desperate acts are on the rise. (please people, it's only money).

After falling 3 1/2 years behind in payments, the Taunton, Mass., housewife had been intercepting letters from the mortgage company and shredding them before her husband saw them. She tried to refinance but was declined.

In July, on the day the house was to be auctioned, she faxed the note to the mortgage company. Then the 52-year-old walked outside, shot her three beloved cats and then herself with her husband's rifle

In some states they are running out of funds for unemployment benefits.

Economist Alan Blinder dares to say Don't Forget the People Blinder also endorses a HOLC, the plan to refinance distressed mortgages, presented by Clinton and now McCain:

Blinder proposes a plan that is somewhat similar to what both presidential candidates have endorsed: buying up mortgages from banks and refinancing them.

But he thinks the emphasis needs to be placed on helping borrowers, not protecting lenders.

He said that the government should buy the mortgages below face value - similar to the strategy of the the Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) that was set up during the Great Depression.

That makes it easier to work with borrowers in order to keep them in their homes.

"If you buy the mortgages at a loss, it would still not be as big of a loss to banks as there would be in foreclosure," he said.

Meanwhile as the U.S. Government and the multinational financial system become ever increasingly one and the same (with your money), the interbank lending rate, LIBOR and TED spreads are still very high.

TED

So, has the only thing to be accomplished is a temporary jolt of the stock market causing people to churn their accounts and the entire world mesmerized by the real time streaming quotes screen?

Where is the focus and the investment in the American people in the real world with the real economy?

A voice from Fort Wayne, Indiana says it best:

Debt in all forms—credit cards, mortgages, and exotic Wall Street derivatives—became one of the fastest growing businesses in the nation.

Aided and abetted by the government credit market debt grew from $11 trillion to $48 trillion over the two decades. By 2005, financial services represented 20-25 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product while manufacturing had slipped to just 12 percent.

The U.S. has swung from being the world’s largest creditor to the largest debtor nation. The U.S.’s current account deficit reached $850-to-875 billion in 2006. It now accounts for about seven percent of GDP, more than double the previous modern record of 3.4 percent in the middle 1980s. Our external deficit has risen by an average of $100 billion annually over the past four years. If corrective measures are not taken, the current account deficit will reach about eight percent of GDP by 2010, and net international liabilities will reach about 50 percent of GDP.

America’s debt to foreigners continues to grow because more money was needed to finance the oil and manufactured products the nation had to import because our factories and oil fields no longer produced enough. The debt, however, the nation has been accumulating over the last two decades has provided only 30-to-40 percent of the stimulus per dollar compared to previous debt. The previous debt was used for building factories or improving infrastructure and resulted in job growth and stimulus at the grass roots level. The new debt channeled to the financial service speculators for their own wealth creation does little for the grass roots economy

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Comments

It's only money

The problem is, in a capitalist system, we're told that profit=life itself. I'll agree that is an example of where we got screwed up- but EVERYBODY is screwed up on this, that's why we still have fractional reserve banking to begin with, because it's more profitable than full reserve banking.

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Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.

fractional reserve banking

Is simply not the problem causing this mess. It's derivatives. Now if you want to go off on a ponzi scheme, wrap your head around derivatives, which we have many good points about on EP. You must already realize that banks were leveraging 40:1, 50:1, not the traditional 10:1 that fractional reserve banking is based on.

Then, on real estate, brokers only paid attention to the buy being able to pay the first 3 to 6 months of the loan because they would keep their fee. That why one had teaser rates, interest only loans and adjustable ARMs, they sold houses to people who could not afford them and did very little background checks. They also sold loans that were plain predatory, also to make the fees.

Even 10:1 is too much

Here's why.

The derivatives, they're just a symptom of the real problem. The real problem is that the bankers and brokers are asking us to trust them again in the future- trust that their "little white lie" of traditional 10:1 fractional reserve banking won't grow again into the "big lie" of 40:1, 50:1, 200:1 (depending on whose numbers you believe) derivatives.

I see no reason why, given the utter lack of change of people in charge, to believe that the predatory loans won't come back in another form, and that fractional reserve banking isn't just a fancy form of counterfeiting.

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Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.

no that's not accurate

Derivatives, SIVs, CDOS and CDSes have nothing to do with the fractional reserve banking system. Look in the search, I've spent and others have spent hours and hours explaining derivatives. They are an unregulated "bet" against default separate from leveraging.

And the regulators didn't catch them why?

And why weren't they regulated? What's to stop them from just replacing the whole concept with yet another strange device nobody ever hears about until it blows up?

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Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.

read all about it

Phil Graham
and if you search here (see upper right hand corner)
on origins of subprime, derivatives you will find a very good blog post explaining the how they all got started.

Symptom of a larger problem

See, I see the anti-regulators as a symptom of a much, much larger problem. The problem can be called the problem of cooperation with evil in an attempt to do good. It never works out well in the long term.

Regulation could have indeed softened the blow. But time after time, the natural result of allowing big businesses and the economy to grow is consolidation of wealth. With consolidation of wealth, you get people who are able to afford lobbyists to change the regulatory environment to their satisfaction. Eventually some new idea all blows up in our faces, and we call for more regulation. But more regulation is only a partial solution- because the real problem is consolidation of wealth to begin with.

Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely, was the lesson supposedly given by WWII. But Power isn't the only thing that corrupts- Wealth corrupts as well. Once you give in to the idea that profit is it's own king, that it's a single-issue peak, all sorts of other nasty things get justified and justifiable.

I've said before that all of the bailouts in the world won't bring me back to trusting the bankers. We don't need more regulation, more cooperating with evil. We need destruction of the evil; permanent removal of the people and business plans that cause the problem from positions of power and wealth.

Only then can alternative methods based on other ideals have a chance to be tried.

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Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.

Are we having fun yet?

Monday's historic ramp is now pretty much gone, and its only Wednesday. What sort of bailout will the government do next? And when do our foreign creditors decide that our fiscally irresponsible ways must end?

$2 trillion for a rollercoaster?

I've lost count by just how much "bail out" per temporary Dow Jones thrill ride has it cost? I figure we have $1 billion per Dow Jones point increase that lasts a day or two.