To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare July's real PCE to the real PCE of the 3 months of the second quarter. When we compare July's inflation adjusted PCE of 12,778.2 billion to the 2nd quarter’s real PCE of 11,819.6 billion, we find that July’s real PCE has grown at a 36.605% annual rate from the 2nd quarter.
The May report Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.
The November report on Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis includes the month's data for our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 69% of the month's GDP, and with it the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.
The May report on Personal Income and Outlays, released on Friday, gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 69% of GDP, and the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.
In addition to the Employment Situation Summary for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, last week also saw the release of four July reports that give us the lion's share of that month's contribution to 3rd quarter GDP, and in some cases suggest revisions to 2nd quarter GDP. This post reviews those four reports, with an eye to assessing their impact on GDP growth.
The June personal income and outlays report shows a 0.4% increase in consumer spending. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.3%. Personal income increased 0.2% while real disposable income increased 0.1% for the month. This is decent growth in PCE. From a year ago, real consumer spending has increased 2.8% while real disposable income has increased 2.2%.
The May report Personal Income and Outlays from theBEA gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 2/3rds of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.
With the first Friday of the month, the Employment Situation Summary for May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was obviously the most widely watched release of last week. But the week also saw the release of four reports for April that give us the lion's share of that month's contribution to 2nd quarter GDP, and in some cases suggest revisions to 1st quarter GDP.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is usually the key metric for determining the ultimate trajectory of GDP each quarter. This key monthly release is detailed in the report on Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis.
Other than the employment report and the GDP report itself, the monthly report on Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis is probably the most important economic release we see monthly.
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