Q1 GDP was revised upward to 1.1%. Originally GDP was estimated to be 0.5%, then revised up to 0.8% and now reported to be 1.1%. While consumer spending was revised somewhat lower again, exports came to the rescue and bumped up Q1 GDP. Private investment contraction was less than originally estimated as well. Now GDP is still weak but not anything to be concerned about. Seems revisions always change the economic growth story and Q1 is no exception.
The initial Q1 GDP estimate shows economic growth as a stagnant 0.5%. Consumer spending was all services consumption. Private investment just walloped the economy as both nonresidential fixed investment and the changes in private inventories contracted. Exports also receded. An ominous bright spot is residential investment grew by almost half a percentage point. Government spending added to GDP.
Q4 GDP was revised upward again to now be 1.4%. That's double the original advance report of 0.7% and the first revision was 1.0%. The primary cause of the upward revision was more consumer spending in services than previously estimated. The trade deficit Q4 GDP impact was significantly less. Residential housing was revised upward as well.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows another decline in manufactured durable goods new orders for February. New orders dropped by -2.8% and has been down three of the past for months. February shipments also were negative with a -0.9% drop. Core capital goods new orders by themselves declined by -1.8%. Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have decreased by -1.0%.
Q4 GDP was revised upward from 0.7% to 1.0%. The primary causes of the upward revision were inventories contracted much less than originally estimated and imports were much less.
The initial Q4 GDP estimate is an ominous 0.7%. Consumer spending was the only dimly lit bright spot,with changes in inventories removing 0.45 percentage points from GDP. The trade deficit didn't help either as exports were less than imports and the end result was a -0.47 percentage point drain on Q4 real GDP. Both government and fixed investment GDP contribution was next to nil.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders just jumped off of a cliff in December. New orders plunged -5.1% and even worse, November new orders was revised down to -0.5%. Not to be outdone, December shipments is also horrific with a -2.2% drop. Core capital goods new orders also plunged by -4.3%. Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have decreased by -1.2%.
Q3 GDP has been revised to 2.0%. This is a smidgen, a 0.1 percentage point lowering than the last estimate. Most factors which make up GDP did not change much from the primarily estimate. Changes in private inventories was where the revision occurred as they were revised from -0.59 to -0.71 percentage points of GDP. Consumer spending and domestic demand are still muddling along with moderate growth.
The initial Q3 GDP estimate is a not very enticing 1.5%. Consumer spending was still relatively healthy but the contraction in inventories change eradicated 1.44 points of economic growth. Imports and exports somewhat negated each other. Government contributed a small amount of growth to GDP.
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