Key takeaways

• The 2025 Census data on earnings, income, and poverty may reflect how the Trump administration’s policy choices were beginning to impact the economic well-being of workers, families, and children last year.
• Last year’s economy was characterized by slowing job growth, rising wage inequality, and growing policy uncertainty. We expect to see little to no improvements in key economic indicators such as lower-end household income and supplemental poverty rates between 2024 and 2025.
• The 2026 story is still unfolding and is likely to be worse, given these factors: decelerating nominal wage growth, higher inflation, and the 2025 budget reconciliation law that will leave more families and children vulnerable to poverty.

Next week, the Census Bureau will release the latest data on earnings, income, and poverty for 2025. This data could show early signs of how the Trump administration’s policy choices impacted the economic well-being of workers, families, and children across the country. The initial strong recovery from the pandemic recession measurably slowed in 2025 as the labor market softened and the policy climate grew more uncertain. To help place the upcoming data release in context, we highlight key trends that have characterized the economic and policy landscape in 2025. Though the economy continued to soften as inflation worsened in 2026 and the safety net grew increasingly more difficult to access as a result of the Republican Budget Reconciliation Law, the data in the Census will only provide specific insights for living standards in 2025.

In summary, we find:

1. 1. The U.S. economy in 2025 grew more slowly than in 2024, adding fewer than half as many jobs—only 764,000 jobs compared with 1.825 million in 2024. The unemployment rate slowly rose over the course of 2025, and the hires rate was depressed, making it harder for young people in particular to break into the labor market. While the prime-age employment-to-population remained relatively resilient to labor market softening, prime-age Black workers experienced large declines in their employment rate.
   2. With more moderate inflation, strong nominal wage growth translated into decent average hourly wage gains between 2024 and 2025, but gains were not shared equally. Lower-end wage growth stalled in 2025, which could have implications for lower-end incomes and poverty rates.
   3. Because the Republican Budget Reconciliation Law is making basic needs programs like SNAP increasingly more difficult for families to access, we don’t expect to see any significant improvements in supplemental poverty between 2024 and 2025. We expect to the see the full impact of the Republican law in the years ahead.
   4. While the release will only provide data for 2025, our examination of the economic and policy landscape for 2026 suggests that a weaker job market, safety net cuts, and high inflation will worsen outcomes.

The labor market recovery softened in 2025

Because the vast majority of people in the United States rely on labor market income for their economic well-being, the labor market data we already have for 2025 should provide some insights into what the Census data may tell us. Overall, job growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has ticked up as employment rates softened, particularly for certain demographic groups.

After the tremendous rebound from the pandemic recession, the labor market cooled somewhat. Payroll employment growth went from 3.3 million in 2023 to 1.8 million in 2024 and then 764,000 in 2025. A slowdown would be expected after such a strong recovery, and the number of jobs needed to keep up with population growth declined with lower net immigration in the wake of Trump’s draconian mass deportation policies. Nearly 100,000 federal jobs (96,000) were lost in the massive DOGE cuts (when comparing annual averages, which obscure more massive downward trends later in the year), and even manufacturing employment faltered in Trump’s first year, falling by 156,000 jobs between 2024 and 2025. If not for job growth in health care and social assistance, overall payroll employment would have fallen outright.

This weakening led to a mild increase in the unemployment rate, from 4.0% to 4.3% between 2024 and 2025. Figure A displays the change in some key labor market indicators for certain demographic groups. While the overall unemployment rate rose modestly, the increase was far greater for young workers, ages 16 to 24. It’s likely that the depressed hires rate has made it harder for young workers to break into the labor market. Older workers experienced much milder increases in their respective unemployment rates.

The share of the population with a job—the employment-to-population ratio fell from 60.1% to 59.7%, a drop of 0.4 percentage points. Prime-age workers—those between 25 and 54 years old—were more resilient to the labor market softening. However, prime-age Black workers experienced a tremendous decline of 1.3 percentage points between 2024 and 2025. This weakness may show up in the income and poverty data released next week. At the same time, prime-age Hispanic workers experienced an increase in their employment-to-population ratio.

Figure A Wage inequality increased in 2025

Employment changes alone have important implications for family and household income, but wages are also an important part of the economic story. Figure B illustrates several key price and wage changes between 2024 and 2025. Though the economy was a bit weaker, the labor market delivered strong nominal wage growth for private-sector workers, measured by the Current Employment Statistics. Nominal average hourly wages increased 4.0% between 2024 and 2025. Inflation moderated—remember this is before the spike in 2026—and therefore, real hourly wages rose a modest 1.5%.

Unfortunately, the gains were not broad based. Unlike the faster wage growth among lower-wage workers through 2024, lower-end wage growth stalled in 2025. While the fall wasn’t large, it reversed the trends experienced between 2019 and 2024. The stair-step increase in wage growth, as shown in the right half of Figure B, suggests a return to a K-shaped recovery, wherein higher-wage workers experienced much faster wage growth than those at the middle or the bottom. While stronger average wage growth and modest median wage growth may suggest modest improvements in median household income—though tempered by slower job growth—weaker low-end wages may translate into losses for lower-income households and possibly rising poverty rates, particularly for groups hit hardest by falling employment.

Figure B Republicans weakened SNAP last year and any chance at poverty alleviation in the years ahead 

The end of the expanded social safety net in 2022 eroded all of the gains in poverty reduction experienced between 2020 and 2021. Since 2022, poverty has continued to climb. This unfortunate trend in poverty is unlikely to reverse course in the latest Census release for 2025. This is partly because the Republican budget reconciliation bill signed into law by President Trump in July of last year significantly cut and limited access to basic needs programs like SNAP, one of the most successful programs in our country’s fight against poverty and hunger. Because the implementation of these changes and spending cuts is still ongoing, we are unlikely to see the full impact of the Republican law in next week’s data.

In 2024 alone, SNAP lifted more than 3.5 million people out of poverty. Nearly 40% of these individuals were children (see Figure C). In fact, both SNAP and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP), which provides reduced-cost or free lunches to low-income children in public and nonprofit private schools, lifted more than 2 million children out of poverty in 2024. After refundable credits, these programs, along with Social Security, make up the most effective anti-poverty strategies for children in the United States.

Figure C

Instead of strengthening the country’s nutritional assistance programs to improve access and the adequacy of benefits amid growing food insecurity, the Republican reconciliation package cut funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), imposed strict and costly work requirements, and eliminated waivers for areas with chronically high unemployment. The ongoing implementation of some of these changes, including factors associated with staff limitations, has led to a decline in SNAP participation by more than 4.5 million people. This drop will not be entirely reflected in the upcoming poverty statistics since some of this decline occurred in 2026. Yet the cutting back of resources for USDA and SNAP initiated by congressional Republicans and the administration will continue to translate into higher poverty rates and increased food insecurity, as states struggle to implement the costly and harmful changes now required by the new law.

The administration has also taken steps to ensure that we don’t have the data we need to trace the painful impact of these changes on food insecure families. In September 2025, Trump’s USDA canceled the country’s leading survey that documented the magnitude and severity of hunger and food insecurity in the U.S. They claimed that the USDA survey and report  were “redundant” and “politicized.” Soon after this, the administration allowed SNAP benefits to lapse for the first time in the history of the program, while at the helm of the longest full government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 43 days and creating a chaotic situation for SNAP beneficiaries, many of whom needed to turn to food pantries for help. 

As we will be reminded when the Census releases its poverty statistics for 2025, the impact of all these harmful policies hit Black and brown families with children particularly hard. This is because families of color are disproportionately more likely to rely on SNAP to avoid food insecurity, and children of color are also more likely to be burdened by poverty than their peers.

In 2021, the United States demonstrated to the world that it had the capacity to reduce poverty to historically low levels by expanding access to SNAP and other basic needs programs. In 2025, Trump and congressional Republicans showed the world that they were willing to gut basic needs programs to pay for tax cuts that disproportionately favor the wealthy. We should not be surprised when we fail at poverty reduction in the years ahead.

Next week’s data will be about the economic story of 2025. The 2026 story is still unfolding and is likely to have a worse ending

As noted earlier, the earnings, income, and poverty statistics the U.S. Census will publish next week are for 2025. While we don’t yet know the full economic story for 2026, it is unlikely to be a more promising one. This is because the slowdown in job growth that began in 2025 has further solidified throughout 2026. This weaker job market continues to be particularly harmful to Black and young workers. The softer labor market in 2026 has also coincided with worsening inflation. Higher inflation is largely due to Trump’s ongoing war in Iran, which has already wiped out 1.5 years of real wage growth in a matter of months.

The policy landscape for 2026 also looks bleaker. The spending cuts to the U.S. social safety net that Trump signed into law in the summer of 2025 will continue to hurt the ability of families to access basic services like Medicaid and SNAP. This will leave increasingly more economically insecure families vulnerable to poverty and unnecessary hardship in the face of a worsening affordability crisis.

Steve Randall of Wealth Professional reports Canada leads global investor confidence, but scale gap remains: CPP report:

Global investors trust Canada. The harder task is giving them enough to buy. 

That is the central finding of two complementary reports published September 8, 2026 by the CPP Investments Insights Institute, the research arm of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) in Toronto.

The reports - Competing for Capital: How Global Investors Choose Markets and Trusted, But Untapped: Canada's Next Competitive Advantage Is Investibility - draw on interviews with 65 senior investment professionals across 20 countries, collectively overseeing approximately $65 trillion in assets under management, or roughly one-third of estimated global AUM.

The research was published in the lead-up to the Canada Investment Summit, scheduled for September 14 and 15, 2026 in Toronto, where global institutional investors, business leaders and public-sector representatives are set to advance commercial conversations around Canadian investment opportunities.

What global investors actually want

The research lays out a clear hierarchy of what drives capital allocation decisions.

Market opportunity tops the list, cited by 80 per cent of respondents, according to the CPP Investments Insights Institute. Regulatory efficiency and predictability ranked second at 72 per cent, followed by policy stability at 69 per cent. The leading barriers to investment include unattractive risk-adjusted returns, fear of policy reversal and regulatory uncertainty.

The findings reinforce that perception of political stability is as important as economic fundamentals when assessing cross-border exposure.

Thematically, digital and AI infrastructure has emerged as the dominant global investment category, cited by 65 per cent of respondents.

Energy followed at 43 per cent, technology and semiconductors at 42 per cent, and defence at 35 per cent. The report notes that investors are increasingly treating these sectors as interconnected - data centres need reliable electricity, electricity grids require critical minerals, and all of it depends on permitting and financing frameworks.

"Global capital is looking for opportunity, but opportunity alone does not make a market investible," said Naomi Powell, Director of the Insights Institute at CPP Investments. "Trust and predictable rules build confidence, but capital ultimately moves to opportunities with sufficient scale, profitable structures and a credible path to execution."

Where Canada stands

Among eight major developed markets assessed in the companion Canada-focused report, Canada posted the strongest investor retention profile of any country surveyed.

Some 94 per cent of respondents said they expect to maintain or increase their Canadian exposure over the next three years. That figure placed Canada well ahead of Japan at 82 per cent and the United States at 77 per cent, according to the CPP Investments research.

Canada's advantages are well established: policy stability, openness to foreign capital and a regulatory environment that institutional investors regard as predictable.

The country also ranks second only to the United States for access to sophisticated local investment partners, a factor that carries significant weight for large pension funds and sovereign wealth funds structuring complex deals. Canada's natural resource base, energy sector and critical minerals supply chains further align with the themes drawing the most global capital right now.

That investor confidence is not purely theoretical. Foreign investors committed an unprecedented $100.6 billion to Canadian markets in the second quarter of 2026, according to Statistics Canada data, capping a record quarter driven largely by demand for federal government debt.

Canada has also overtaken both Germany and the United States to rank first in infrastructure investment attractiveness for the first time, according to the Global Infrastructure Investor Association's latest bi-annual Pulse Survey, conducted by Alvarez & Marsal.

The CPP Investments reports, however, make clear that strong sentiment has not yet translated into proportional capital deployment.

The gap between investor confidence and actual investment reflects a structural challenge around scale, bankability and execution capacity. Investors consistently flagged the absence of deal flow at institutional scale, revenue certainty and sufficient risk-sharing mechanisms as obstacles to converting interest into committed capital.

The investibility gap

The reports argue that Canada's competitive advantage lies in its ability to package existing strengths - energy, critical minerals and infrastructure - into investible opportunities that meet the requirements of large institutional mandates.

That means clear project pipelines, predictable regulatory timelines, attractive risk-adjusted structures and the kind of institutional-scale deal flow that major pension funds and sovereign wealth vehicles can absorb.

"Canada has already earned something increasingly valuable: the trust of global investors," Powell said. "The opportunity now is to turn that confidence into profitable investments. Connecting Canada's strengths in energy, critical minerals and infrastructure to AI and other emerging themes can position the country for the next wave of global capital."

Clients with allocations to infrastructure, private equity or global real assets are operating in a market where Canada's relative attractiveness is measurably improving, but where the depth and variety of available opportunities may not yet match the scale of institutional demand.

That demand-supply tension is visible across asset classes. Canadian venture capital funding fell 12 per cent in the first half of 2026 as global investors pulled back from private markets, even as early-stage companies absorbed 57 per cent of all capital deployed during the period, according to data reviewed by Wealth Professional.

The CPP Investments Insights Institute noted that investibility can be strengthened through a combination of policy and market structure improvements: clearer project pipelines, predictable regulation, revenue certainty, effective risk-sharing and investment structures built to institutional scale.

The fund itself, which totalled C$863.6 billion as at June 30, 2026, operates across more than 60 countries and deploys capital in public equities, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, fixed income and alternative strategies, giving its research arm a direct view of how competitive markets attract and retain large pools of long-term capital.

The Canada Investment Summit will test whether those conditions can be advanced through direct engagement between policymakers, business leaders and the global investor community. 

You can read the report, "Trusted but Untapped" on CPP Investments' Insights Institute website here.

I read the report; it is excellent. I provide you only with a high-level overview and key takeaways:

This report builds on original research conducted by CPP Investments Insights Institute examining how global capital allocators evaluate investibility and deploy capital across advanced economies. It explores how investors perceive Canada’s competitive position and unpacks the strategic advantage the country holds in an increasingly competitive market for global capital.  

Key Takeaways

Canada is the leading “stay-or-grow” market, period. Among the eight developed economies surveyed, Canada ranks first for investors’ intentions to maintain or increase their allocations.

Stability and trust are Canada’s superpowers.1 Canada is the market most associated with policy stability and regulatory predictability—top global capital allocation drivers.

Canada’s next opportunity is to connect its strengths. Canada’s energy, critical minerals and infrastructure advantages become more valuable when positioned not as standalone sectors but as the enabling platform for AI, advanced manufacturing and strategic infrastructure.

Partnership is a hidden asset. Sophisticated Canadian pension funds can be attractive partners for global investors evaluating the Canadian investment landscape. Canada is ranked second only to the U.S. for this attribute.

Scale is Canada’s next competitive advantage. Larger, repeatable, bankable platforms are what convert trust into institutional-scale deployment—and they can be designed.

The report was released before the big upcoming Canada Investment Summit next week.

The who's who of the global institutional investment world will be represented there but they're not coming here to play or listen to speeches:

The invitees come from at least 11 different countries, and include the heads of investment banks, managers of state-owned funds and large pension funds.

At a time when Trump officials are hurling more insults, Carney’s event has attracted 33 American investment firms - the biggest contingent among the countries.

The second largest group of investors is homegrown and includes Canada’s largest pension funds.

Here is a partial list of investor groups by country attending the Canada Investment Summit as told to CTV News:

• 28 from Canada
• 33 from the United States
• 9 United Kingdom
• 8 France
• 7 Australia
• 4 United Arab Emirates
• 3 China
• 2 Malaysia
• 1 Norway
• 1 Singapore
• 1 Saudi Arabia

One source tells CTV News that the right people are in the room, but they aren’t coming to “play.”

“They don’t want to hear speeches. What they’ve said, is ‘I’m coming – so tell me what I can buy,’” the source said. 

No kidding, these global allocators want to invest in large, scalable infrastructure and energy projects that have been derisked and where regulations are clear over the long run.

They will look at other investments like venture capital, private equity and real estate, but don't kid yourself, they're primarily coming to hear what Mark Carney plans on doing in terms of privatizing large infrastructure and energy projects.   

That is their focus and quite frankly, the same focus that our large domestic pension funds have, namely, to invest in large scalable, long-dated infrastructure assets. 

In my opinion, our politicians have a golden opportunity to sell Canada to these large global investors, and they better not blow it.

Our country has plenty of opportunities but the federal and provincial governments have to create winning conditions to attract foreign and domestic capital flows. 

We know what global investors want, pretty much the same as our large domestic pension funds.

Let's get to it already; the time for action is NOW!! 

So, as  Prime Minister Mark Carney warns of tough times ahead, let's seize this opportunity to sell our country to global investors. 

Below, Prime Minister Mark Carney will host Canada’s biggest investment summit with a goal of securing $1 trillion in capital over five years. Judy Trinh has more.

Also, the world's biggest investors and Canada’s Prime Minister are heading to Toronto for the Canada Investment Summit. C.D. Howe Insitute discusses why Canada is looking to attract $1 trillion in investment over the next five years and how it can do this. Read more here.

The Business Desk reports the UK’s largest private crematorium and cemetery firm sold in a private equity deal:

Westerleigh Group, the UK’s biggest private crematorium and cemetery operator, is being acquired by global alternative asset manager ICG for an undisclosed sum.

ICG’s European Infrastructure team will buy the business, based at Westerleigh, near Bristol, from Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and Universities Superannuation Scheme, which have jointly owned it since 2016.

The company operates 42 crematoria across England, Scotland and Wales and describes itself as the UK’s largest developer of new crematoria, having opened 21 sites since 2016.

Debbie Smith, chief executive of Westerleigh Group, said the firm’s priority had always been to provide exceptional care to the families and communities it served.

“ICG Infra shares our commitment to investing in our people, facilities and services, and brings a long-term perspective that aligns closely with our ambitions,” she added.

“We are grateful to Ontario Teachers’ and USS for their partnership and support since 2016, which has helped strengthen and grow the business.

“We look forward to working with ICG Infra as we continue investing in our network and developing new locations, in response to the resilient demand for our services across the UK.”

Under the outgoing owners, Westerleigh has invested in its SuperVenue concept, which the company says enables families to create more personalised funeral services, and developed a cremation funeral plan offering.

ICG Infra will partner with Westerleigh’s existing management team to support continued investment across the network and development of new locations.

Ludovic Laforge, managing director at ICG European Infrastructure, said: “Westerleigh provides an essential service to communities across the UK and has established a leading and highly reputable network of social infrastructure assets. We are very happy to partner with the Company and its management team.”

The transaction follows the €3.15bn close of ICG Infra’s second fund in 2025.

Completion remains subject to regulatory approvals and is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. 

Today, ICG Infra agreed to acquire Westerleigh Group from Ontario Teachers' and USS

ICG, the global alternative asset manager, today announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire the Westerleigh Group (“Westerleigh” or “the Company”), a leading independent developer and operator of crematoria and cemeteries in the UK.

ICG’s European Infrastructure team (“ICG Infra”) will acquire Westerleigh from Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (“Ontario Teachers’”) and Universities Superannuation Scheme (“USS”), which have jointly owned the business since 2016, supporting a period of significant growth for the Company. ICG Infra will partner closely with Westerleigh’s existing management team, led by Chief Executive Officer Debbie Smith, to support continued investment across the Company’s existing network, development of new locations, and enhancement of its service offering.

Founded over 30 years ago, Westerleigh is the UK's largest private operator of crematoria and cemeteries, providing services to communities across England, Scotland and Wales. The Company operates 42 crematoria and has built a strong reputation for high-quality care. Under Ontario Teachers’ and USS’s ownership, Westerleigh has expanded its network significantly in recent years and is the UK's largest developer of new crematoria, opening 21 since 2016, with additional sites under development. The Company has also continued to invest in its existing estate and service offering, including through the rollout of its SuperVenue concept, which enables families to create more personalised funeral services, and through the development of its cremation funeral plan offering.

For ICG Infra, the partnership aligns closely with its emphasis on key infrastructure, focusing on essential businesses with non-GDP-correlated characteristics and resilient demographic fundamentals. The transaction follows the €3.15bn close of ICG Infra’s second fund in 2025 and recent investments in Paulo Duarte Group and Comcreta.

Ludovic Laforge, Managing Director, ICG European Infrastructure, said:
“Westerleigh provides an essential service to communities across the UK and has established a leading and highly reputable network of social infrastructure assets. We are very happy to partner with the Company and its management team. Westerleigh is a strong fit with our strategy, and we look forward to supporting its next phase of growth.”

Debbie Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Westerleigh Group, added:
“At Westerleigh, our priority has always been to provide exceptional care to the families and communities we serve. ICG Infra shares our commitment to investing in our people, facilities and services, and brings a long-term perspective that aligns closely with our ambitions. We are grateful to Ontario Teachers’ and USS for their partnership and support since 2016, which has helped strengthen and grow the business. We look forward to working with ICG Infra as we continue investing in our network and developing new locations, in response to the resilient demand for our services across the UK.”

James Adam, Senior Managing Director, Infrastructure and Natural Resources at Ontario Teachers’, added:
“Over the last decade, we have been proud to support and partner with Westerleigh’s management team as it has strengthened its position as a leader in the sector, expanded its network, and continued to invest in providing the highest quality of care and services to families. We wish ICG Infra and the Westerleigh team continued success in their next stage of growth.”

Rob Horsnall, Head of Direct Equity, Private Markets Group, Universities Superannuation Scheme, added:
“We are proud of what has been achieved throughout our investment in Westerleigh and have enjoyed a close working relationship with the management team and our partners at Ontario Teachers’. During our involvement, Westerleigh has doubled its number of sites while maintaining a focus on delivering high-quality crematoria facilities and, most importantly, continues to deliver an exceptional service rooted in compassion. We would like to thank the management team for their dedication and have every confidence that the business will continue to thrive in its new partnership with ICG Infra.”

Completion of the transaction remains subject to customary regulatory conditions and approvals and is expected to complete in Q4 2026.

About ICG
ICG (LSE: ICG) is a global alternative asset manager with $126bn* in AUM and more than three decades of experience generating attractive returns. We operate from over 20 locations globally and invest our clients’ capital across Structured Capital; Private Equity Secondaries; Private Debt; Credit; and Real Assets. Our exceptional people originate differentiated opportunities, invest responsibly, and deliver long-term value. We partner with management teams, founders, and business owners in a creative and solutions-focused approach, supporting them with our expertise and flexible capital. For more information visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn.

*As at 30 June 2026.

About Ontario Teachers’
Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers') is a global investor with net assets of $279.4 billion as of December 31, 2025. Ontario Teachers’ is a fully funded defined benefit pension plan, and it invests in a broad array of asset classes to deliver retirement security for 346,000 working members and pensioners. For more information, visit otpp.com and follow us on LinkedIn.

About Universities Superannuation Scheme
Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) was established in 1974 as the principal pension scheme for universities and Higher Education institutions in the UK. We work with around 320 employers to help build a secure financial future for almost 599,000 members and their families. We are one of the largest pension schemes in the UK, with total assets of around £84bn (at 31 March 2026). For more information, please visit our website.

Before I give you my thoughts, it's also worth looking at the November 2016 press release when OTPP and USS acquired Westerleigh Group from Antin Infrastructure Partners:

LONDON – Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan ("Ontario Teachers'") and Universities Superannuation Scheme ("USS") today announced the acquisition of Westerleigh Group ("Westerleigh"), the UK crematoria developer and operator, from Antin Infrastructure Partners ("Antin").  The transaction is expected to close by year end.

Founded in 1991, Westerleigh Group has grown to become the leading developer and operator of crematoria and cemeteries in the UK, caring for over 30,000 funerals per year across its 22 sites.  It has a significant and successful track record of developing new crematoria, with 13 built since 1991.  Crematoria form an essential piece of social infrastructure in the UK, with over 75% of deaths cremated each year.

Richard Evans, Managing Director of Westerleigh, said: "We are grateful for Antin's backing over the past three years and are delighted to have new long-term, pension fund investors to support the Group through our next phase of growth."

Andrew Claerhout, Ontario Teachers' Senior Vice-President Infrastructure and Natural Resources, commented:  "We are very pleased to partner with USS, an institution with which we have tremendous alignment, and with Richard Evans and his outstanding management team to continue to drive Westerleigh's growth. This is a unique business that has established a strong position in the UK market. Their stable revenues and resilient operating model align well with our long-term investment requirements."

Gavin Merchant, Head of Real Assets at USS Investment Management, said: "We are delighted to be investing in Westerleigh which plays such a critical societal role in the UK.  We look forward to working with Richard, his team and our partners Ontario Teachers', to continue to grow Westerleigh as an essential social infrastructure provider and to maintain its reputation for a high quality of care."

About Ontario Teachers'

Ontario Teachers' is the largest single-profession pension plan in Canada. An independent organization since 1990, Ontario Teachers' invests and administers the pensions of more than 316,000 active and retired teachers in the Province of Ontario. As of December 31, 2015, Ontario Teachers' had net assets of C$171.4 billion (£104 billion), invested across a mix of equities (public and private), bonds, commodities, real assets (real estate and infrastructure) and absolute return strategies. Ontario Teachers' infrastructure portfolio was valued at approximately C$15.7 billion (£9.5 billion) as of December 31, 2015 and includes airports, high-speed rail, water and wastewater utilities, electricity and gas distribution, thermal and renewable power generation, toll roads and container terminals.

For more information on OTPP please go to www.otpp.com

About Universities Superannuation Scheme

Universities Superannuation Scheme was established in 1975 as the principal defined benefit pension scheme for universities and other higher education institutions in the UK.  It has around 375,000 scheme members across more than 360 institutions and is one of the largest pension schemes in the UK, with total fund assets of approximately £53 billion (as at 30 June 2016).

The scheme's trustee is Universities Superannuation Scheme Limited, a corporate trustee which provides scheme management and trusteeship from its offices based in Liverpool and London.  The trustee company delegates implementation of its investment strategy to a wholly-owned investment management subsidiary company - USS Investment Management Limited - which provides in-house investment management and advisory services.

For more information on Universities Superannuation Scheme please go to www.uss.co.uk

While financial details of the deal were not disclosed, we see another example of how OTPP and USS worked together to help the Westerleigh Group grow its operations over the last ten years. 

The company is the UK’s largest independent owners and operators of crematoria and cemeteries, with over 40 sites in England, Scotland, and Wales, and is trusted by more families than any other provider to deliver funerals for their loved ones:

All of Westerleigh's locations are set within beautifully landscaped gardens of remembrance which provide peaceful places for people to visit and reflect, while benefitting from exceptional care and support from its teams.

Our core objective is to deliver the highest possible standards of care. Westerleigh Group truly appreciates the social, environmental and financial benefits of providing professionally managed facilities in this highly specialist field.

We have unrivalled experience in the planning, development, operation and management of successful crematoria and cemeteries. We hope this website helps to shine a light on our extensive range of services and expertise and we would welcome the opportunity to hear how we may be able to help you deliver an improved experience to the bereaved.

Westerleigh Group prides itself on providing exceptional care to the bereaved, the standards of which are regularly inspected by the Federation of Burial and Cremation Authorities (FBCA) and the Scottish Government.

It is also an associate member of the National Society of Allied and Independent Funeral Directors (SAIF), a supplier member of the National Association of Funeral Directors (NAFD) and a member of the Funeral Suppliers’ Association (FSA). 

Instead of labelling it as a private equity asset, OTPP and USS labelled it as "social infrastructure," but the end result is the same: they exited the asset at an attractive sale price. 

As discussed above, they sold the asset to ICG, which is a global alternative asset manager with $126bn in AUM and more than three decades of experience generating attractive returns. 

The transaction follows the €3.15bn close of ICG Infra’s second fund in 2025. 

Now it is up to ICG to help the company grow during its next phase of growth. 

James Adam, Senior Managing Director, Infrastructure and Natural Resources at Ontario Teachers’ summed it up well:

“Over the last decade, we have been proud to support and partner with Westerleigh’s management team as it has strengthened its position as a leader in the sector, expanded its network, and continued to invest in providing the highest quality of care and services to families. We wish ICG Infra and the Westerleigh team continued success in their next stage of growth.” 

I also note what Debbie Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Westerleigh Group (featured at the top of this post) states:

“At Westerleigh, our priority has always been to provide exceptional care to the families and communities we serve. ICG Infra shares our commitment to investing in our people, facilities and services, and brings a long-term perspective that aligns closely with our ambitions. We are grateful to Ontario Teachers’ and USS for their partnership and support since 2016, which has helped strengthen and grow the business. We look forward to working with ICG Infra as we continue investing in our network and developing new locations, in response to the resilient demand for our services across the UK.”

So why did OTPP and USS sell this asset?

I can only speak for the former. Keep in mind, OTPP has a Portfolio Solutions group headed up by Kevin Kerr whose sole purpose is to look at all their private market holdings and see how they can add value to make them ready for an exit.

No doubt in my mind, when ICG Infra came knocking, they were ready to sell this asset at a price and they did so, exiting their investment.

It's part of managing a portfolio of private market assets; you don't collect them. When the time is right, you sell them. Read my discussion covering their mid-year results here and see what CIO Gillian Brown shared with me on why they sell assets when the price is right.

Why doesn't OTPP disclose financial details? It's their prerogative, at the end of the day what matters are portfolio returns (but yes, I wish every pension fund disclosed details of these transactions).

Alright, let me wrap it up there.  

Below, a clip from Westerleigh Group, they believe every life is unique, and every funeral should reflect the individual being remembered. "We support families in creating deeply personal farewells, combining compassion and respect for tradition with a commitment to innovation."

Also, in this Daci episode, Debbie Smith, the CEO of Westerleigh Group, sits down to discuss her trajectory, from her beginnings in pharmacy to her leadership roles at Boots and the Post Office. She shares her intriguing career journey that led her to Westerleigh (August 2023).

Sean Conlon, Lee Ying Shan, Ananya Chetia and Chloe Taylor of CNBC report the Dow tumbles more than 260 points after strong jobs report reignites rate hike fears:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on Friday as August’s hotter-than-expected payrolls reading increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its next meeting.

The 30-stock Dow was down 271.86 points, or 0.51%, closing at 53,414.25. The S&P 500 slid 0.38% to end at 7,718.60, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.29% to 26,506.99.

Nonfarm payrolls grew 162,000 last month, much more than the 53,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, as expected. On top of last month’s gain, figures for both June and July saw upward revisions.

Treasury yields rose following the report, with the 2-year yield hitting its highest level since January 2025. Expectations that the Fed could raise rates in a couple weeks increased, as fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 58% chance of a hike, per the CME FedWatch tool. Odds were at 49.4% a day ago.

“A monster jobs report for August reminds us that this labor statistic has become highly volatile while nudging up the probability of a September hike slightly,” said Bradford Smith, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

Now, the debate surrounding the Fed “will sit handily on the incoming inflation data,” he added. “After a hawkish appearance from Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole last week, there is a clear bias at the Fed to take action if the incoming data does not show further progress on disinflation.”

The three major averages rose on Thursday, catching a tailwind as Treasury yields pulled back after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be “inclined to support” keeping rates at their current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the central bank’s Sept. 15-16 meeting.

However, the Dow dropped 0.3% during the week. The S&P 500 added 0.1% week to date, while the Nasdaq notched a 0.4% gain. 

Stephen Culp and Niket Nishant of Reuters also report Wall Street ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets:

NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Wall Street dipped on Friday as a robust jobs report raised the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase its key interest ‌rate at this month's monetary policy meeting.

All three major U.S. indexes closed lower amid a broad selloff ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.

For the week, the indexes were essentially unchanged.

The Labor Department's August employment report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month, nearly three times the 56,000 consensus, while the department revised June and July payrolls ​upward by a total of 55,000 jobs. Labor market participation increased while the unemployment rate held firm at 4.1%.

While a stronger-than-expected jobs report would generally be good economic news, markets are interpreting it as a sign the data-dependent Fed will ⁠implement a rate hike at the conclusion of this month's policy meeting to curb war-related energy price pressures from morphing into broader, more systemic inflation.

"The labor market had a nice snapback last month, and it's hard not to think an improving labor market is not a positive development for the economy," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, Nebraska. "On the flip side, the odds of a Fed hike increased a little bit as the economy continues to run a little on the hot side."

"We'll get a lot more clarity on inflation next week at the consumer and producer levels," Detrick added, referring to the Labor Department's consumer and producer price indexes.

Financial markets are pricing in a 58.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed's September meeting, up from 49.4% on Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 272.51 points, or ‌0.51%, to ⁠53,413.60, the S&P 500 lost 29.30 points, or 0.38%, to 7,718.41 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 77.07 points, or 0.29%, to 26,506.99.

Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks were down the most, while industrials and tech showed modest gains.

Semiconductors (SOX) were clear outperformers, gaining 3.4%, but remain down 17.8% this quarter. Software and services having gained 24% over the same period, were clear laggards on the day, dropping 2.1%.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) tumbled 17.4% after the activewear brand cut its full-year profit and revenue forecasts.

Adobe (ADBE) dropped 6.7% following its announcement that longtime CEO ⁠Shantanu Narayen will be succeeded by insider Anil Chakravarthy.

U.S. credit reporting agencies lost ground after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte said on Thursday he directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by the U.S. Congress to support the housing market, to approve all lenders to use the credit scoring system VantageScore.

Fair Isaac (FICO) lost 16.7%, TransUnion (TRU) dropped 5.9%, while ⁠Equifax (EFX) slid 6.4%.

U.S. markets will close on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.04-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 151 new highs and 167 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 2,478 stocks rose and 2,256 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a ⁠1.1-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and six new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 99 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.14 billion shares, compared with the 14.89 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

This morning all eyes were on the solid US August jobs report, fuelling speculation the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on September 15-16.

While the jobs report was much better than expected and previous months revised up, I still maintain the Fed will likely not raise rates this month.

Of course, a hot inflation report next week might seal the deal for a rate hike but as I stated last week, this is much ado about nothing.

Importantly, even if the Fed raises by 25 basis points, it's a one-and-done deal, so this will not have a major impact on markets.

In other news today, President Trump demanded that the Federal Reserve slash interest rates or else he will cut off trade with countries with which the U.S. maintains trade deficits. He doubled down in the Oval Office later Friday, saying, “we should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world.” 

These demands and threats are baseless and only make the Fed's job more difficult. Moreover, higher tariffs will fuel more inflation, which will put upward pressure on yields, so he should be careful making these statements.

On another interesting note, Norway’s mammoth sovereign wealth fund wants to cut its holdings of government bonds, chiefly affecting US Treasurys, as it seeks greater returns elsewhere: 

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting the allocation of government bonds in its $2.3 trillion investment portfolio, chiefly affecting its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, as it seeks to diversify its risk exposure and boost returns.

The heads of Norges Bank Investment Management wrote in a letter to the country’s Finance Ministry, made public Friday, that it recommended reducing the government subindex of its bond holdings from 70% to 50% — a level it said would provide sufficient liquidity during market turbulence while allowing it to seek greater returns elsewhere.

The proposed reallocation would gradually cut NBIM’s Treasury holdings from 34.1% to 21.9%, reduce its euro area holdings from 16.8% to 14.1%, and increase its share of Japanese government bonds to 7.4% from 4.6%.

NBIM also wants to begin weighting its government bond holdings by market value instead of gross domestic product because of the high debt loads of almost all developed economies. 

Makes perfect sense to me, and this has nothing to do with politics.

Alright, some stock market news to end this comment.

First,  this week's top-performing US large-cap stocks (full list here; I circled the ones that caught my attention):

Next, the worst-performing US large-cap stocks this week (full list here; I circled the ones that caught my attention): 

There were other stocks that caught my attention this week, like Snowflake which surged 22% on Thursday after cloud-based software company posted a blowout second quarter with revenue surging 35% to $1.55 billion:

 This stock hit a 52-week low of $118 when the Saascopalypse hysteria hit markets back in March- April, and only Brad Gerstner was pounding the table to buy (software stocks are up nearly 40% since the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ bottom).

That was a great buying opportunity.

What else? Shares of Ciena continue to struggle after a huge run-up into June. The stock tumbled on Thursday despite beating on earnings this morning:

But generally speaking, momentum stocks (MTUM) caught a bid this week led by semis (SMH):

Still, looking at those charts, it's unclear to me that momentum is turning the corner here in any convincing way. I would need to see what lies ahead in the coming weeks.

Over in Biotech Land, shares of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) are down 40% this week after the company announced its rare-disease drug candidate failed to meet its main goal in a late-stage trial:

Still, some analysts believe the drugmaker has plenty of life left in its pipeline and I do note one of the top biotech funds, RTW Investments, is the second-biggest holder of shares after BlackRock. 

Lastly, the stock of the week, a micro-cap called bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. (BIAF):

 

The stock is up 213% this week, 2,676% over the past month, was literally trading at 41 cents on August 17th. It looks like it's tumbling back down to earth in after-hours trading (another pump-and-dump scam).

Alright, enjoy your long Labour Day weekend, I'll be back next week.

Below, Investment Committee debates the return of the Mag 7 and share their top strategies with those names.

Also, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School Professor of finance, joins 'Closing Bell' to talk what the August jobs report means for the FOMC's next rate hike decision.

Lastly, Rick Bensignor, Bensignor Investment Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the technical trade around markets, bond yields, and commodities.

This blog post was developed in partnership with Steve Greer, CEO of American Income Life Insurance Company.

This Labor Day, workers across the country are sending a clear message: they want a greater voice on the job. A near-record 71% of Americans approve of unions and surveys show over 50 million nonunion workers would join a union if they could.

At a time when many are struggling to afford basic necessities, it’s easy to understand why. Through unions and collective bargaining, workers have more power to win higher wages, better benefits, safer working conditions, and a fairer share of the wealth they create. Unions help build a strong middle class, reduce inequality, narrow racial economic disparities, and boost participation in our democracy.

Yet only 1 in 10 U.S. workers are in a union today—a sharp decline from the more than 1 in 3 workers who belonged to a union in the 1950s. That drop did not happen because workers stopped wanting or needing unions. It happened due to relentless attacks on unions and collective bargaining, and lawmakers’ failure to fix the broken labor laws that have allowed those attacks to succeed.

The consequences have been enormous. As union power has declined, workers have seen less of the gains from the economic growth they have helped create. Since 1979, productivity (how much average value workers produce in an hour of work) has grown 2.8 times as much as pay for typical workers.

New EPI research makes clear just how much working people stand to gain by rebuilding union power to 1950s’ levels.

Tripling union membership would raise the pay of the median worker by more than $7,700 a year, or nearly $270,000 over a 35-year career. That’s enough to more than cover the cost of sending two children to a four-year public university, for example. Crucially, both union and nonunion workers would see these gains because stronger unions raise standards across the labor market.

Scaled across the workforce, tripling union membership would shift an estimated $1.2 trillion to the pockets of working people every year. This is enough to reverse roughly one-third of the increase in inequality since 1979.

Stronger unions are also good for businesses and the broader economy. When workers earn more, they have more money to spend in their communities, strengthening consumer demand. Businesses would benefit from lower worker turnover, higher productivity, and workers who have a greater stake in the success of their workplaces.

Tripling union membership won’t be easy, but it’s far from a nostalgic pipe dream. It will take continued nationwide organizing and decisive policy action that makes it easier for workers to unionize. Federal lawmakers can start by passing legislation that expands collective bargaining rights, closes loopholes in existing law that allows employers to suppress worker organizing, and holds employers accountable when they violate workers’ labor rights. Further, state lawmakers should provide all public-sector workers with collective bargaining rights and repeal so-called right-to-work laws that weaken workers’ ability to organize and bargain collectively. 

This Labor Day, let’s recommit to putting more power in the hands of working people. That means giving more workers the freedom to organize. And it means setting an ambitious goal worthy of the moment: tripling union membership and building an economy that works for working people.

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning. Read the full thread here. 

 

Today’s #jobs data can be considered a solid bounce back to relative weakness in June and July. Job growth has averaged 71k over the last 3 months. Weaker numbers for leisure and hospitality and unusual July losses in local government education employment seems to have resolved in August.
#econsky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:43 AM · Sep 4, 2026

Leisure and hospitality and state/local government led the job growth for August, following by construction. Information and financial activities reported losses. Federal employment continues to trend down.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:51 AM · Sep 4, 2026

With August losses, federal employment is now down 336,000 jobs since January 2025. The vital services federal employees provide cannot be done without these essential workers.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:52 AM · Sep 4, 2026

The preliminary benchmark revisions were out last week, regular BLS communication needed for timely and accurate data. That release suggests there were 79,000 fewer jobs added than originally reported since Trump took office, including 178,000 fewer private sector jobs.

www.bls.gov/news.release…

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 7:59 AM · Sep 4, 2026

Nominal wage growth decelerated in August, rising just 3.1% over the year. Slowing nominal wage growth suggests workers don’t have the leverage to bid up their wages. Even with low unemployment, the depressed hires rate means workers aren’t finding new jobs to raise their wages.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 8:15 AM · Sep 4, 2026

Even though unemployment held steady, I have continuing concerns about the depressed hires rate. Those who are lucky enough to have a job are sitting tight while new entrants or long-term employed can’t find work. Long-term unemployment has been steadily rising led by those unemployed over a year.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 8:37 AM · Sep 4, 2026