Wall Street's Credit Cockroaches Unnerve Investors

Wall Street is concerned about the health of the nation’s regional banks, after a few of them wrote off bad loans to commercial customers in the last two weeks and caused investors to wonder if there might be more bad news to come.
Zions Bank, Western Alliance Bank and the investment bank Jefferies surprised investors by disclosing various bad investments on their books, sending their stocks falling sharply this week. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon added to the unease when he warned there might be more problems to come for banks with potentially bad loans.
“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Dimon told investors and reporters on Tuesday, when JPMorgan reported its results.
The KBW Bank Index, a basket of banks tracked by investors, is down 7% this month.
There were other signs of distress. Data from the Federal Reserve shows that banks tapped the central bank’s overnight “repo” facilities for the second night in a row, an action banks have not needed to take since the Covid-19 pandemic. This facility allows banks to convert highly liquid securities like mortgage bonds and treasuries into cash to help fund their short-term cash shortfalls.
Zions Bancorp shares sank Thursday after the bank wrote off $50 million in commercial and industrial loans, while Western Alliance fell after the bank alleged it had been defrauded by an entity known as Cantor Group V LLC. This came on top of news from Jefferies, which told investors it was might experience millions of dollars in losses from its business with bankrupt auto parts company First Brands.
All three stocks recovered a bit Friday. Jefferies' CEO told investors that the company believes it was defrauded by First Brands and there were no broader concerns in the lending market.
The last banking flare up, in 2023, also involved mid-sized and regional banks that were overly exposed to low-interest loans and commercial real estate. The crisis caused Silicon Valley Bank to fail, followed by Signature Bank, and led to the eventual sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase in a fire sale. Other banks like Zions and Western Alliance ended up seeing their stocks plummet during that time period.
While banks do fail or get bought at fire sale prices, all bank deposits are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, up to $250,000 per account, in case a of a bank failure. In the nearly 100 years since the FDIC was created in 1933, not one depositor has lost their insured funds.
Still, even the larger banks aren't immune in this latest round of trouble. Several Wall Street banks disclosed losses this week in the bankruptcy of Tricolor, a subprime auto dealership company that collapsed last month. Fifth Third Bank, a larger regional bank, recorded a $178 million loss from Tricolor’s bankruptcy.
That said, the big banks believe that any losses will be manageable and do not reflect the broader economy.
“There is no deterioration, we’re very confident with our credit portfolio,” Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing said, in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Friday.
While the big Wall Street banks get most of the media and investor attention, regional banks are a major part of the economy, lending to small-to-medium sized businesses and acting as major lenders for commercial real estate developers. There are more than 120 banks with between $10 billion and $200 billion in assets, according to the FDIC.
While big, these banks can run into trouble because their businesses are not as diverse as the Wall Street money center banks. They’re often more exposed to real estate and industrial loans, and don’t have significant businesses in credit cards and payment processing that can be revenue generators when lending goes south.
Emma Ockerman of Yahoo Finance also reports auto loan delinquencies are soaring, with consumers hit by high car prices:
American consumers are struggling under the weight of soaring auto loan debt.
Auto delinquencies are up more than 50% since 2010 and have transitioned from the safest to riskiest consumer commercial credit product in that time frame, according to a Friday report from VantageScore.
Here’s why: record-breaking car prices, higher maintenance and insurance costs, and elevated interest rates. Longer term loans are also to blame.
“The bigger picture: the auto market is a bellwether for household financial health,” the report says. “A sustained climb in auto delinquencies signals deeper affordability challenges across the consumer economy.”
The country is seeing “the most precarious consumer credit health situation since the last financial crisis,” said VantageScore Chief Economist Rikard Bandebo.
“More and more people are struggling to make ends meet,” Bandebo added.
Delinquencies among other loan categories, like credit cards and first mortgages, have declined since the first quarter of 2010, making autos a bit of an outlier, VantageScore said.
High car prices are a big culprit. The average transaction price of a new vehicle floated above $50,000 in September for the first time, likely pushed higher by luxury models and pricey electric vehicles, according to estimates from Kelley Blue Book.
Meanwhile, data released this week from Edmunds, a car shopping website, showed drivers are increasingly underwater when trading in older models for new cars, meaning their original vehicles are worth less than the amount still owed. Drivers carried more than $10,000 worth of debt in almost a quarter of upside-down trade-ins during the third quarter, for example.
Overall, Americans are carrying more than $1.66 trillion in auto debt, with borrowers tumbling into “delinquencies and defaults at a pace that exceeds pre-pandemic levels and rivals the years immediately preceding the 2008 economic crisis,” a report from the Consumer Federation of America said last month.
“We have people that are financing their car loan over eight years, which is something that we hadn’t seen since the Great Recession,” Erin Witte, the director of consumer protection for the Consumer Federation of America, told Yahoo Finance. “Of course, when you’re extending that financing out, you’re paying more and more. And if you trade that car in before the loan term is over, you’re probably going to owe money on it, which is another cascading problem: You’re paying interest twice — it makes the next car more expensive.”
Car repossessions are also up, and the stock market is on edge after the bankruptcies of the subprime auto lender Tricolor and auto parts maker First Brands, with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon saying that "when you see one cockroach, there's probably more."
Michael Brisson, auto economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the rise in delinquencies can also be traced back to auto lenders loosening their credit standards at a time when credit scores were already broadly increasing — thanks to pandemic-era stimulus and relief programs — while car prices were ticking higher. Some consumers looked healthier than they were.
Add to this Goldman Sachs Group President John Waldron said there’s been an explosion in the growth of credit over the past decade — and that the fallout if things go south won’t be pretty.
Waldron (featured above) was quoted on CNBC as saying there isn't a private credit and public credit market, they're all related and interconnected.
Well, DUH! If the private credit market which isn't regulated suffers a massive crisis, high yield credit spreads in public markets will blow up. Guaranteed.
In another "DUH!" moment, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated when it comes to credit woes, "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more."
Many eons ago, I worked with a great guy called Matthew Pugsley at BCA who told me back then: "A bad earnings report is like a cockroach, if you see one, others will follow."
More often than not, that is definitely the case.
As far as this week's credit woes, well, some of it is old news and some of it just confirms the US economy is slowing.
For example, auto loan delinquencies. People are losing their job and can't make payments on their car or insurance. Cars are most expensive, for sure, because of new chips that are needed to run them and that doesn't help.
America is still a tale of two economies -- the ultra rich partying in Miami, and the restless masses trying to make ends meet.
Private credit is just like any other credit, when the economy stalls, defaults go up and if your underwriting is shoddy, guess what, you're exposed to massive losses.
As I stated recently, there are cracks in the AI and private credit bubbles.
It doesn't mean a crisis lies straight ahead, it means there will be more negative surprises as the economy slows and markets adjust to a potential inflation boomerang.
But with the Fed cutting rates and massive fiscal stimulus coming, it feels more like 1998 than 2008.
No wonder gold futures eased on Friday but were still on pace to notch their biggest weekly gain since 2020 in a stunning rally.
I don't get spooked by big headlines, most of which are manufactured headlines from Wall Street that wants to control the narrative.
Late Friday afternoon, the markets have all recovered nicely with exception of the Russell 2000 which remains negative.
In two weeks, President Trump will meet with his Chinese counterpart in South Korea, expect a big announcement (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in Malaysia next week to prepare).
We are just beginning earnings season and so far things look great with the big US banks reporting stellar numbers.
Also, if there is a big credit crisis looming, high yield bonds would be selling off hard and they keep on rising higher:

All this to say this week there were a lot of headlines scaring algos and investors alike but there's no real tangible evidence of a looming credit crisis, at least not yet.
Yes, we will undoubtedly hear of more private credit blowups as the US economy slows but it's still way too early to call this a systemic problem like we saw in 2008.
Anyway, here are this week's top performing and worst performing US large cap stocks (full list available here):


Below, Bryn Talkington, Managing Partner of Requisite Capital Management, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why she's buying two private credit names amidst concerns in the space. The Investment Committee debate how to the risks in private credit stocks.
Next, Adam Parker, Trivariate Research founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Parker's thoughts on the credit environment, what could go wrong with capital expenditures and much more.
Third, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his take on the latest news affecting markets and why he thinks private credit woes will not change tailwinds.
Lastly, Tudor Investment Corporation's Paul Tudor Jones tells Bloomberg's Matthew Miller that if AI is a bubble, it's a historically small one. He sees concentration risk everywhere and expects to find the NASDAQ substantially higher by the end of the year.
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