Don Wilcox of Real Estate News Exchange reports CPP Investments forges $3B logistics JV with Dream Industrial:

CPP Investments is forging a joint venture to acquire up to $3 billion in Canadian last-mile industrial properties with Dream Industrial REIT (DIR-UN-T) and Dream Asset Management Corp., the firms announced Wednesday.

The venture is to have an equity allocation of $1.1 billion and be seeded with an $805-million portfolio of 12 properties from Dream Industrial. The seed properties comprise approximately 3.6 million square feet of space in four major markets, following the investment thesis for the venture.

“The Canadian industrial sector continues to demonstrate resilient demand and meaningful long-term growth drivers, supported by a structurally high need for well-located space as supply chains and logistics continue to evolve,” said Sophie van Oosterom, managing director, head of real estate at CPP Investments, in its announcement.

“By partnering with Dream, a leading institutional asset manager and operating platform, we can efficiently scale our exposure in the Canadian market to capture this growth and drive long-term value for the benefit of CPP contributors and beneficiaries.”

Properties in the seed portfolio comprise a total of 27 buildings in the Greater Toronto Area, Montreal, Calgary, and London, Ont. 

CPP invests $1 billion in the JV

CPP Investments is supplying approximately $1 billion of the capital and will own 90 per cent of the venture, with approximately $100 million from Dream Industrial. This will allow for the expected acquisition of approximately $3 billion of industrial assets including leverage.

The venture will seek properties in Canada’s major markets “offering excellent connectivity to population clusters and arterial transport routes.” It intends to pursue a value-add strategy acquiring assets with material existing vacancy, near-term lease-rollover, larger capital investments, intensification and redevelopment opportunities.

Dream subsidiaries will be the asset manager, and provide property management and leasing services.

“We are excited to partner with CPP Investments to continue to expand our presence in the Canadian industrial market,” said Alex Sannikov, chief executive officer of Dream Industrial, in the release. “This new joint venture is highly complementary to the strategic direction of Dream Industrial and our existing private capital partnerships. We look forward to growing this partnership with CPP Investments.”

The industrial market has been one of Canada's most robust commercial real estate investment sectors in recent years, and although absorption has slowed somewhat over the past few quarters, well-located and modern facilities have continued to lease up and perform well. 

This also offers CPP Investments another major Canadian venture, as pressure has mounted on institutional investors to further support home-grown business in the wake of increased cross-border trade tensions and tariffs with the U.S.

Partnership to lift Dream above $30B in AUM

In its own release, Dream noted average in-place and committed base rent for properties in the initial portfolio was approximately $11 per square foot as at the end of Q3, with a weighted average lease term of approximately three years.

The properties will be sold into the venture unencumbered, in two tranches during the first six months of 2026.

“This new venture with one of the largest and most respected institutional investors globally is a testament to the strength of our platform, our reputation in the sector, and our asset and property management capabilities,” Dream’s founder and chief responsible officer Michael Cooper said in the announcement. 

“With this partnership, we expect to surpass $30 billion of assets under management and increase our growth rate as we continue to build out our institutional asset management business.”

The partners were advised by TD Securities, RBC Capital Markets, Colliers Capital Markets and CBRE. Stikeman Elliott LLP and King & Spalding LLP provided legal advice.

This is not Dream's first major partnership, including within the industrial sector where it is also involved in the Dream Summit Industrial LP, with Singapore's sovereign wealth manager GIC. 

Also in the release, Dream Industrial announced the suspension of its dividend reinvestment program, opting to pay all distributions in cash.

About CPP Investments, Dream Industrial and Dream

CPP Investments manages the Canada Pension Plan Fund for over 22 million contributors and beneficiaries. It invests globally in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure, fixed income and alternative strategies including in partnership with funds. 

Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Mumbai, New York City, San Francisco, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan and at arm’s length from governments. As of Sept. 30, the fund totalled $777.5 billion.

Dream Industrial is an owner, manager, and operator of a global portfolio, with interests in 340 industrial assets (552 buildings) totalling approximately 73.2 million square feet of gross leasable area in markets across Canada, Europe and the U.S.

Dream Asset Management is the institutional asset management arm of Dream Unlimited Corp. (DRM-T), providing investment and asset management services to its publicly listed trusts and institutional partners. As of Sept. 30, Dream managed $28 billion of assets across four TSX-listed entities, private funds and numerous private partnerships.

Dream provides real estate development, management, investment and operational services across North America and Europe.

Greg Dool of PERE also reports CPP Investments seeds Canadian industrial JV with $727m commitment:

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has committed C$1 billion ($727 million; €618 million) to seed a joint venture focused on acquiring last-mile industrial assets across its home country.

Canada’s largest institutional real estate investor is partnering in the venture with Toronto-listed Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust and its private investment arm, Dream Asset Management, the firms said Wednesday. Dream Industrial is committing an additional C$100 million of its own to the JV, which will have approximately C$3 billion in buying power with leverage.

Coinciding with the launch, Dream Industrial has agreed to sell a 12-asset, 3.6 million-square-foot portfolio spanning Alberta, Ontario and Quebec to the venture from its balance sheet for C$805 million. By square footage, those assets represented about 17.5 percent of Dream Industrial’s overall REIT portfolio as of September 30.

In a Wednesday statement to shareholders viewed by PERE, Dream Industrial called that price “a significant premium” relative to the current value of its shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The REIT’s shares closed at C$12.19 on Tuesday evening, the day before the deal was announced, whereas the net asset value of its portfolio stood at C$16.74 per unit as of September 30. According to Dream Industrial, the JV’s C$805 purchase price values the seed assets “slightly above” the current NAV for that portion of the portfolio, representing a premium of more than 37 percent compared with its share price.

By square footage, 37 percent of the seed portfolio is in the Greater Toronto area and another 36 percent in Montreal, with the rest located in Calgary and London, Ontario. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026.

CPP will own 90 percent of the venture, while Dream Industrial will hold the other 10 percent and act as property manager for its existing and future assets. Dream Asset Management will serve as the JV’s asset manager.

Sophie van Oosterom, managing director and head of real estate for CPP, emphasized “resilient demand and meaningful long-term growth drivers” for logistics and supply chain-oriented Canadian industrial property. By partnering with Dream, which is both an asset manager and operating platform, CPP can “efficiently scale our exposure in the Canadian [industrial] market to capture this growth,” she said in the statement.

CPP managed C$777.5 billion of assets globally as of September 30, with approximately 6.8 percent of that portfolio in private real estate as of March 31, the most recent data available for allocations by asset class. As head of real estate since joining CPP at the start of 2025, van Oosterom has sought to adopt a more risk-on approach in which the asset class contributes more to the fund’s total returns, which she portrayed as a change in strategy from the prior two decades, during which the asset class was primarily a source of diversification and protection against volatility.

Describing this shift last month at the PERE America Forum in New York, van Oosterom said CPP would be open to investing with new partners, particularly for opportunities in “very operational and specialized strategies.”

“We need to look around the corner as well and say, which entrepreneurs are out there that we can back or support to grow those portfolios into the institutionalized platforms that we think we can create value in,” she said.

Earlier today, CPP Investments issued this press release on its $3 billion joint venture with Dream Industrial REIT and Dream Asset Management:

Transaction Highlights  

• CPP Investments, Dream Industrial and Dream Asset Management Corporation form new Canadian industrial Joint Venture, with $1.1 billion of allocated equity capital
• The Joint Venture is expected to have approximately $3 billion of acquisition capacity, including leverage, and will target last-mile industrial assets in major Canadian markets
• The Joint Venture has agreed to acquire a 3.6 million square foot Initial Portfolio from Dream Industrial REIT for over $800 million

Toronto, Ontario, December 17, 2025 — Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (“CPP Investments”), Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX: DIR.UN) (“Dream Industrial”), and Dream Asset Management Corporation (“Dream”) (collectively, the “Partners”) today announced the formation of a joint venture (the “Joint Venture”) to acquire last-mile industrial properties in major markets across Canada.

The Partners have allocated $1.1 billion of equity capital, including $1.0 billion from CPP Investments (90%) and $0.1 billion from Dream Industrial (10%), allowing for the expected acquisition of approximately $3.0 billion of industrial assets strategically located in Canada’s major markets, offering excellent connectivity to population clusters and arterial transport routes.

A subsidiary of Dream will be the asset manager for the Joint Venture and a subsidiary of Dream Industrial will provide property management and leasing services.

As part of this Joint Venture, the Partners have agreed to acquire a portfolio of 12 Canadian industrial assets totaling 3.6 million square feet across Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta (the “Initial Portfolio”) from Dream Industrial. The Joint Venture is acquiring the Initial Portfolio for a purchase price of $805 million.

“The Canadian industrial sector continues to demonstrate resilient demand and meaningful long-term growth drivers, supported by a structurally high need for well-located space as supply chains and logistics continue to evolve,” said Sophie van Oosterom, Managing Director, Head of Real Estate at CPP Investments. “By partnering with Dream, a leading institutional asset manager and operating platform, we can efficiently scale our exposure in the Canadian market to capture this growth and drive long-term value for the benefit of CPP contributors and beneficiaries.”

“We are excited to partner with CPP Investments to continue to expand our presence in the Canadian industrial market,” said Alex Sannikov, Chief Executive Officer of Dream Industrial REIT. “This new Joint Venture is highly complementary to the strategic direction of Dream Industrial and our existing private capital partnerships. We look forward to growing this partnership with CPP Investments.”

“This new venture with one of the largest and most respected institutional investors globally is a testament to the strength of our platform, our reputation in the sector, and our asset and property management capabilities,” said Michael Cooper, founder and Chief Responsible Officer of Dream. “With this partnership, we expect to surpass $30 billion of assets under management and increase our growth rate as we continue to build out our institutional asset management business.”

The Partners were advised by TD Securities, RBC Capital Markets, Colliers Capital Markets and CBRE. Stikeman Elliot LLP and King & Spalding LLP provided legal advice in connection with establishing the Joint Venture.

About CPP Investments

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments™) is a professional investment management organization that manages the Canada Pension Plan Fund in the best interest of the more than 22 million contributors and beneficiaries. In order to build diversified portfolios of assets, we make investments around the world in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure, fixed income and alternative strategies including in partnership with funds. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Mumbai, New York City, San Francisco, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan and at arm’s length from governments. At September 30, 2025, the Fund totaled C$777.5 billion. For more information, please visit www.cppinvestments.com or follow us on LinkedIn, Instagram or on X @CPPInvestments. 

About Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust

Dream Industrial is an owner, manager, and operator of a global portfolio of well-located industrial properties. As at September 30, 2025, Dream Industrial has an interest in and manages a portfolio comprising 340 industrial assets (552 buildings) totaling approximately 73.2 million square feet of gross leasable area in key markets across Canada, Europe, and the U.S. Dream Industrial’s objective is to deliver strong total returns to its unitholders through secure distributions and growth in net asset value and cash flow per unit, underpinned by its high-quality portfolio and investment-grade balance sheet. Dream Industrial is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust. For more information, please visit www.dreamindustrialreit.ca.

About Dream Asset Management Corporation

Dream Asset Management is the institutional asset management arm of Dream Unlimited Corp. (TSX: DRM) (“Dream Unlimited”) providing investment and asset management services to its publicly listed trusts and institutional partners. As at September 30, 2025, Dream manages $28 billion of assets across four Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) listed entities, private funds and numerous private partnerships. Dream is a leading provider of real estate development, management, investment, and operational services across North America and Europe. For more information, please visit www.dream.ca.

This is a major transaction for CPP Investments, Dream Industrial REIT and Dream Asset Management Corporation.

I've never heard of Dream Industrial REIT but I'm not a big follower of REITs in general.

Looking at Dream's website however, you can't help but be impressed and this is the second joint venture for them with a major institutional partner having partnered up with GIC and Summit on another venture two years ago.

Recall, Sophie van Oosterom, Managing Director, Head of Real Estate at CPP Investments was hired a little over a year ago from Schroders Capital to take over the organization's massive real estate portfolio.

Her focus is on partnerships that offer unique strategies or that are best-in-class at areas they cover and this joint venture fits that criteria.

As she states in the press release:

“By partnering with Dream, a leading institutional asset manager and operating platform, we can efficiently scale our exposure in the Canadian market to capture this growth and drive long-term value for the benefit of CPP contributors and beneficiaries.” 

Dream's Canadian logistics properties are mostly in Toronto, Montreal and Calgary and even though logistics properties are fully valued, these are prized assets that CPP Investments can hold for many years without taking any currency risk (since they're right there in Canada). 

Clearly they did their due diligence on Dream and were impressed or else they wouldn't commit $1 billion equity, $3 billion in total to this JV.

Are there risks? Sure, the Canadian economy is teetering on a recession despite what you see in the data from Stats Canada (don't get me started) but these are assets they will hold through a few cycles so I'm not worried about that.

Canada's population is growing and more people will end up buying more stuff so these logistics properties will always be in high demand. 

Below, Alexander Sannikov, CEO of Dream Industrial REIT joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the industrial real estate landscape. He says while rents are cheaper in Europe there is still room to run (interview from May 2024, listen to his comments on Canada).

Last month, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy (R-La.) unveiled a package of four bills that he described as advancing President Trump’s purported “pro-worker” agenda. But there is nothing in the legislation to address the problems workers face when they try to organize unions at their workplace. In fact, Senator Cassidy’s bills construct new barriers to worker organizing and create new incentives for employers to undermine workers’ rights.

Below, we compare Senator Cassidy’s bills to the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which is comprehensive legislation to reform our nation’s broken labor law system. As you can see, it’s clear which legislation actually helps workers.

Table 1

Survival skills encompass techniques for thriving in challenging environments, detailed in numerous PDF guides. These resources, exceeding 100 files, cover essential knowledge.

PDF documents outline everything from bug-out bag setup to advanced strategies, ensuring preparedness for diverse scenarios, including those mirroring ARK: Survival Evolved.

A comprehensive 101 Survival Skills checklist is available, aiding in long-term self-sufficiency, like establishing farms and preserving food—vital for resilience.

What are Survival Skills?

Survival skills, extensively documented in available PDF resources, represent a compilation of techniques enabling individuals to sustain life in adverse conditions. These skills, exceeding 100 files worth of information, range from basic first aid to complex shelter construction, mirroring challenges found in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

PDF guides detail methods for procuring food and water, navigating without technology, and building fires—essential for both short-term emergencies and long-term self-reliance. A 101 Survival Skills checklist provides a structured approach to mastering these vital competencies, ensuring preparedness.

Why Learn Survival Skills?

Learning survival skills, as detailed in numerous PDF guides, provides self-reliance and resilience in unpredictable situations. Over 100 files offer knowledge applicable to real-world emergencies, or even immersive experiences like ARK: Survival Evolved, fostering adaptability.

PDF resources emphasize preparedness for natural disasters, wilderness encounters, or societal disruptions. Mastering these skills—from fire-starting to food preservation—enhances confidence and the ability to overcome adversity. The 101 Survival Skills checklist promotes a proactive mindset, ensuring readiness for any challenge.

Essential Survival Kit & Gear

PDF guides detail crucial gear for survival, including “bug-out bag” essentials. These resources, exceeding 100 files, outline tools and equipment for self-sufficiency.

Preparation, mirroring ARK: Survival Evolved needs, involves selecting appropriate tools for shelter building, trapping, and resource procurement—all covered in PDFs.

Bug Out Bag Essentials

PDF resources extensively detail the contents of a vital “bug-out bag,” emphasizing preparedness for rapid evacuation. These guides, numbering over 100, recommend prioritizing essential items for short-term survival, mirroring the resourcefulness demanded in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Key components include water purification tools, non-perishable food supplies, first-aid kits, navigation aids (maps and compasses), shelter materials, fire-starting implements, and versatile tools. PDF checklists ensure nothing is overlooked, covering everything from clothing and hygiene items to self-defense tools and communication devices, fostering self-reliance.

Tools for Survival: Making & Using

PDF guides highlight the importance of both carrying pre-made tools and learning to craft them in the wild. These resources, exceeding 100 files, detail methods for creating essential implements from natural materials, echoing the crafting aspects of ARK: Survival Evolved.

Skills covered include flint knapping for creating blades, constructing digging sticks, fashioning containers from bark, and building simple traps. PDF instructions emphasize resourcefulness, teaching how to repurpose found objects and maximize efficiency, fostering self-sufficiency and adaptability in challenging environments.

Navigation & Orientation

PDF survival manuals prioritize the ability to determine location and direction, crucial for avoiding becoming lost. These guides, numbering over 100, detail techniques beyond modern technology, mirroring the exploratory nature of games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Essential skills include utilizing natural navigation cues – sun, stars, and terrain features – alongside map reading and compass use. PDF resources emphasize understanding contour lines and declination, ensuring accurate positioning and safe travel, even in unfamiliar landscapes, promoting confident exploration.

Map Reading & Compass Skills

PDF survival guides extensively cover topographic map interpretation, a cornerstone of wilderness navigation. These resources, exceeding 100 files, detail understanding contour lines, symbols, and scales, vital for planning routes and assessing terrain, much like strategizing in ARK: Survival Evolved.

Compass skills, as outlined in these PDFs, include taking bearings, following a course, and triangulating position. Mastering these techniques, alongside map reading, ensures accurate orientation and safe travel, even without GPS, fostering self-reliance and informed decision-making in any environment.

Shelter Building

PDF survival manuals detail constructing both natural shelters and more elaborate constructed shelters. They cover material selection and considerations for protection, mirroring ARK’s base-building.

These guides emphasize adapting to the environment, crucial for long-term survival and resilience, as highlighted in comprehensive checklists.

Natural Shelters

PDF survival guides extensively cover utilizing the environment for immediate protection. These resources detail identifying and adapting existing formations like caves, rock overhangs, and dense vegetation for shelter.

Survival skills PDFs emphasize leveraging natural features to minimize energy expenditure, crucial in emergency situations. They explain how to reinforce these natural structures with available materials – branches, leaves, and mud – for improved insulation and weather resistance.

Understanding microclimates and selecting locations offering natural windbreaks or sun exposure are key skills detailed within these guides, mirroring the strategic base-building found in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Constructed Shelters

Survival skills PDF guides dedicate significant sections to building shelters from scratch, vital when natural options are limited. These resources detail various designs – lean-tos, A-frames, and debris huts – outlining material requirements and construction techniques.

PDFs emphasize efficient use of resources, mirroring the crafting aspects of games like ARK: Survival Evolved. They provide step-by-step instructions, including knot tying (detailed elsewhere), for securing structures and maximizing stability.

Considerations for insulation, waterproofing, and camouflage are thoroughly covered, ensuring constructed shelters offer effective protection against the elements and potential threats.

Shelter Materials & Considerations

Survival skills PDF guides meticulously detail suitable shelter materials, prioritizing readily available resources. These include branches, leaves, mud, snow, and even salvaged materials, echoing resourcefulness seen in ARK: Survival Evolved.

PDFs emphasize assessing material properties – insulation value, durability, and water resistance – for optimal shelter construction. Considerations extend to location, avoiding floodplains or unstable ground.

Crucially, guides address camouflage and concealment, vital for security. They also highlight the importance of minimizing environmental impact, promoting sustainable practices during prolonged survival scenarios.

Fire Starting

Survival skills PDF resources detail methods like friction and flint & steel. They emphasize finding and preparing tinder, crucial for ignition, mirroring challenges in ARK.

PDF guides prioritize fire safety and efficient management, vital for warmth, cooking, and signaling—essential survival components.

Fire Starting Methods (Friction, Flint & Steel)

Survival skills PDF guides extensively cover traditional fire-starting techniques. Friction-based methods, like the bow drill and hand drill, demand practice and suitable wood types, detailed in downloadable resources.

Flint and steel, another core skill, requires char cloth for catching sparks, a process thoroughly explained in these PDF documents. Mastering these techniques provides redundancy, crucial when lighters fail.

These resources often include diagrams and step-by-step instructions, mirroring the resourcefulness needed in games like ARK: Survival Evolved, where fire is paramount for defense and sustenance.

Successful implementation relies on understanding wood properties and spark generation, knowledge readily available within these comprehensive PDF guides.

Finding & Preparing Tinder

Survival skills PDF resources emphasize the critical role of tinder in successful fire starting. Natural tinder sources, like birch bark, pine needles, and dry grasses, are detailed with identification guides within these downloadable documents.

Preparation is key; tinder must be finely shredded and completely dry. PDF guides illustrate techniques for processing materials, including creating char cloth from cotton, enhancing its spark-catching ability.

Understanding local flora and fauna for optimal tinder selection is vital, mirroring the resourcefulness needed in survival scenarios. These PDFs often include regional plant lists.

Effective tinder preparation dramatically increases fire-starting success, a skill crucial for warmth, cooking, and signaling, as highlighted in comprehensive survival guides.

Fire Safety & Management

Survival skills PDF guides dedicate significant sections to fire safety, stressing the importance of creating a firebreak – clearing a ten-foot radius around the fire to prevent spread. These resources detail responsible fire management techniques for minimizing environmental impact.

PDF documents emphasize constant supervision, never leaving a fire unattended, and having readily available extinguishing materials like water or sand. They also cover wind direction considerations.

Properly extinguishing a fire is paramount; PDFs instruct on thoroughly dousing embers and stirring ashes to ensure complete extinguishment, preventing wildfires.

Understanding these safety protocols, detailed in downloadable guides, is crucial for responsible wilderness survival, mirroring the careful resource management in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Food & Water Procurement

Survival skills PDF guides detail locating water sources and purification methods. They also cover foraging for edible plants, trapping, and fishing—essential for sustenance.

PDF resources emphasize identifying safe plants and constructing effective traps, mirroring resourcefulness needed in survival scenarios.

Water Sources & Purification

Survival skills PDF documents extensively cover identifying potential water sources in diverse environments, ranging from rainfall collection to locating springs and streams. Crucially, these guides emphasize that raw water is rarely safe for consumption.

PDF resources detail multiple purification techniques, including boiling—the simplest method—and constructing improvised filters using charcoal, sand, and gravel. They also discuss chemical purification using iodine or chlorine tablets, outlining proper dosage and safety precautions.

Understanding these methods, as detailed in the PDFs, is paramount for preventing waterborne illnesses and ensuring long-term survival, mirroring the challenges faced in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Foraging for Edible Plants

Survival skills PDF guides dedicate significant sections to identifying edible plants, stressing the critical importance of accurate identification to avoid poisonous varieties. These resources often include detailed illustrations and descriptions to aid in plant recognition.

PDF documents emphasize learning regional flora, as edible plants vary drastically by location. They also caution against consuming any plant unless 100% certain of its safety, advocating for the “universal edibility test” as a last resort.

Successfully foraging, as detailed in these PDFs, provides a sustainable food source, vital for long-term survival, much like resource gathering in ARK: Survival Evolved.

Trapping & Snaring Animals

Survival skills PDF resources extensively cover trapping and snaring, outlining various techniques for procuring protein in a wilderness setting. These guides detail constructing snares using readily available materials, emphasizing ethical considerations and legal restrictions regarding trapping.

PDF documents illustrate different trap designs – figure-four traps, snare loops, and deadfalls – explaining their construction and optimal placement for targeting specific animals. They stress the importance of checking traps regularly.

Mastering these skills, as presented in these PDFs, offers a crucial food source, mirroring the hunting aspects found within games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Fishing Techniques

Survival skills PDF guides dedicate significant sections to fishing, a reliable method for obtaining sustenance. These resources detail constructing improvised fishing gear from natural materials – hooks from bone, lines from plant fibers, and spears from sharpened wood.

PDF documents illustrate various techniques, including line fishing, spear fishing, and building fish traps. They emphasize identifying edible fish species and understanding local fishing regulations.

These PDFs highlight the importance of patience and observation, skills mirroring resourcefulness needed in survival scenarios, even those depicted in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Knot Tying for Survival

Survival skills PDF resources emphasize mastering essential knots—Bowline, Square Knot, and Taut-Line Hitch—for shelter building, trapping, and securing gear effectively.

PDF guides detail knot applications in diverse survival scenarios, mirroring the resourcefulness needed in challenging environments.

Essential Knots (Bowline, Square Knot, Taut-Line Hitch)

Survival skills PDF guides consistently highlight three knots as fundamentally crucial: the Bowline, Square Knot, and Taut-Line Hitch. The Bowline creates a secure loop, invaluable for rescue or anchoring. The Square Knot, though simple, is vital for joining ropes – however, it’s crucial to understand its limitations for load-bearing applications.

The Taut-Line Hitch is exceptionally adaptable, allowing for adjustable tension, making it perfect for tent guy lines or creating a secure ridgeline for shelters. Mastering these knots, as detailed in comprehensive PDF resources, provides a foundational skillset for various survival applications, mirroring the practical needs presented in scenarios like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Knot Applications in Survival Scenarios

Survival skills PDF resources emphasize practical knot usage beyond simple tying. The Bowline secures a climbing line or creates a rescue loop. A Square Knot joins shelter poles, though reinforced with caution. The Taut-Line Hitch adjusts tarp tension, crucial for weather protection, and secures a clothesline.

These applications extend to trapping snares, constructing improvised litters, and securing gear. PDF guides detail how knots aid in building shelters, similar to those needed in ARK: Survival Evolved. Understanding these applications transforms theoretical knowledge into life-saving skills, enhancing preparedness in any survival situation.

First Aid & Medical Skills

Survival skills PDF guides detail basic wound care, treating injuries, and improvising medical supplies. These resources are vital for self-reliance in remote settings.

PDF documents cover essential techniques for managing illness and injury, mirroring the challenges faced in survival simulations.

Basic Wound Care

Survival skills PDF resources emphasize immediate action for wound management. Initial steps involve controlling bleeding through direct pressure and elevation, detailed in comprehensive guides.

Cleaning wounds thoroughly with purified water—sourced and treated as outlined in PDF documents—is crucial to prevent infection. Improvised bandages, utilizing clean cloth, are frequently detailed.

PDF guides also cover recognizing infection signs (redness, swelling, pus) and utilizing natural antiseptics when available. Proper wound care significantly increases survival chances, mirroring scenarios in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

These skills are foundational for self-sufficiency.

Treating Common Injuries & Illnesses

Survival skills PDF guides detail managing common ailments with limited resources. Sprains and fractures require immobilization using splints crafted from available materials, as illustrated in detailed diagrams.

Hypothermia and heatstroke protocols are crucial, emphasizing shelter construction and regulating body temperature—skills frequently highlighted in PDF checklists.

Recognizing and treating dehydration, alongside utilizing foraged plants for medicinal purposes (with caution!), are also covered. These PDF resources prepare individuals for scenarios demanding self-reliance, akin to ARK: Survival Evolved challenges.

Knowledge is paramount for survival;

Improvised Medical Supplies

Survival skills PDF resources emphasize resourcefulness in medical emergencies. Creating bandages from clean cloth, utilizing plantain leaves for wound healing, and fashioning slings from clothing are key techniques.

Charcoal acts as an absorbent for poisoning, while boiled water serves as a sterile cleansing agent—information readily available in comprehensive PDF guides.

These PDF documents detail constructing sutures from natural fibers and utilizing tree resin as an antiseptic, mirroring the self-sufficiency needed in scenarios like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Improvisation is vital when conventional supplies are unavailable.

Long-Term Survival Strategies

Survival skills PDF guides detail sustainable living: soap making, farming, seed collection, and animal husbandry.

These PDF resources emphasize self-reliance, mirroring the extended survival aspects found in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Soap Making

Survival skills PDF resources highlight soap making as crucial for long-term hygiene, preventing disease in off-grid scenarios. Historically, lye – derived from wood ash – was essential, a technique detailed in many guides.

These PDF documents explain sourcing fats (animal or plant-based) and the saponification process, transforming them into usable soap. Mastering this skill reduces reliance on external supplies, mirroring the self-sufficiency needed in challenging environments like those presented in ARK: Survival Evolved.

Proper soap production safeguards health, a fundamental aspect of sustained survival, as outlined in comprehensive survival checklists.

Farming & Seed Collection

Survival skills PDF guides emphasize farming and seed collection for sustainable food sources, vital for long-term resilience. These resources detail soil preparation, crop selection, and companion planting techniques for maximizing yields.

Seed saving is paramount, ensuring future harvests and genetic diversity. PDF documents explain proper drying and storage methods to maintain viability, mirroring the resourcefulness needed in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Establishing a farm provides a stable food supply, reducing dependence on foraging and hunting, a cornerstone of self-sufficiency as detailed in survival checklists.

Raising Animals for Sustenance

Survival skills PDF resources highlight animal husbandry as a crucial element of long-term self-reliance. Guides detail selecting appropriate livestock – chickens, rabbits, goats – based on resource availability and climate conditions.

PDF documents cover essential aspects like shelter construction, feeding strategies, and disease prevention, mirroring the challenges faced in survival scenarios. This parallels resource management in games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Raising animals provides meat, eggs, milk, and valuable resources like manure for fertilizer, bolstering food security and overall sustainability, as outlined in comprehensive survival checklists.

Food Preservation Techniques

Survival skills PDF guides detail methods like drying, smoking, salting, and fermentation to extend food supplies. These techniques, crucial for long-term survival,

ensure sustenance without refrigeration, mirroring strategies for resource management in challenging environments.

Drying & Smoking

Survival skills PDF resources extensively cover drying and smoking as vital food preservation techniques. Drying, utilizing sun or low heat, removes moisture, inhibiting bacterial growth. This method works exceptionally well for meats, fruits, and vegetables, extending their shelf life considerably.

Smoking adds flavor while further preserving food through chemical compounds in the smoke. Both methods align with long-term survival strategies, mirroring resourcefulness needed in scenarios like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Detailed guides within these PDFs outline construction of drying racks and smokehouses, alongside optimal wood choices for smoking, ensuring effective preservation.

Salting & Fermentation

Survival skills PDF guides detail salting and fermentation as crucial food preservation methods. Salting draws out moisture, creating a hostile environment for bacteria, effectively preserving meats and fish. These PDFs provide ratios and techniques for dry-brining and wet-curing, maximizing preservation.

Fermentation utilizes beneficial microorganisms to transform food, creating lactic acid which inhibits spoilage. This applies to vegetables like cabbage (sauerkraut) and can extend food availability.

These techniques, vital for long-term self-sufficiency, echo the resourcefulness needed in challenging environments, similar to those found in ARK: Survival Evolved.

Root Cellaring

Survival skills PDF resources emphasize root cellaring as a low-tech, effective food storage solution. These guides detail constructing underground spaces – or utilizing existing basements – to maintain cool, humid conditions ideal for preserving root vegetables like potatoes and carrots.

Proper ventilation and temperature control, outlined in the PDFs, are key to preventing spoilage. Root cellaring minimizes reliance on refrigeration, a critical advantage in long-term survival scenarios.

This method, mirroring resourcefulness needed in games like ARK: Survival Evolved, ensures a stable food supply throughout the winter months.

Advanced Survival Skills

Survival skills PDF guides detail advanced techniques like camouflage, signaling, and self-defense. Mastering these skills, crucial for resilience, enhances your ability to thrive.

These PDFs prepare you for complex scenarios, mirroring the challenges found in survival-focused games like ARK: Survival Evolved.

Camouflage & Concealment

Survival skills PDF resources emphasize camouflage and concealment as vital for evading detection. These guides detail techniques for blending into diverse environments, utilizing natural materials for effective disguise.

Mastering these skills, mirroring strategies in games like ARK: Survival Evolved, significantly increases your chances of survival. PDF documents cover ghillie suit construction, face paint application, and utilizing shadows for concealment.

Effective camouflage isn’t just about visual blending; it also includes scent control and minimizing noise. Advanced techniques detailed in these guides focus on disrupting your silhouette and movement patterns, making you nearly invisible to potential threats.

Signaling for Rescue

Survival skills PDF guides dedicate significant attention to signaling for rescue, a crucial element of wilderness survival. These resources detail various methods, from creating visible signals to utilizing reflective surfaces for attracting attention.

Documents outline building signal fires, constructing ground-to-air signals using contrasting materials, and employing mirrors or polished metal to flash sunlight. Understanding these techniques, akin to strategies in ARK: Survival Evolved, dramatically increases rescue probability.

PDFs also cover utilizing whistles, brightly colored clothing, and even improvised flags to maximize visibility. Prioritizing clear, concise signals is key, ensuring rescuers can quickly locate your position.

Self-Defense Techniques

Survival skills PDF resources acknowledge the potential need for self-defense in hostile environments. While avoidance is paramount, these guides detail basic techniques for protecting oneself against both human and animal threats.

Documents often cover improvised weapons creation, utilizing readily available materials for defense. They emphasize situational awareness, de-escalation tactics, and understanding personal limitations. These skills, mirroring the challenges in ARK: Survival Evolved, are vital for survival.

PDFs stress that self-defense is a last resort, focusing on escape and evasion whenever possible, but preparedness is key to increasing chances of survival.

Survival Mindset

Survival skills PDF guides highlight the crucial role of mental fortitude. Maintaining positivity, resilience, and sound decision-making are paramount for overcoming adversity.

Effective risk assessment, detailed in these PDFs, is vital for navigating challenging situations and maximizing chances of long-term survival.

Maintaining Positivity & Resilience

Survival skills PDF resources consistently emphasize the psychological aspects of enduring hardship. A positive outlook isn’t merely optimistic; it’s a practical tool for problem-solving and conserving energy. Resilience, the ability to bounce back from setbacks, is cultivated through mental preparation and acceptance of unavoidable challenges.

These guides detail techniques for managing fear and stress, recognizing that panic can be as dangerous as any physical threat. Cultivating a determined mindset, focusing on achievable goals, and celebrating small victories are all strategies outlined within these PDF documents. Remember, a strong spirit is often the most valuable survival tool.

Risk Assessment & Decision Making

Survival skills PDF guides highlight that informed decisions are paramount. Effective risk assessment involves identifying potential hazards – mirroring the dangers in games like ARK: Survival Evolved – and evaluating their likelihood and potential impact. These resources emphasize a systematic approach, prioritizing needs and avoiding impulsive actions.

The PDF documents detail methods for weighing options, considering limited resources, and accepting calculated risks. They stress the importance of gathering information, observing surroundings, and adapting plans as circumstances change. Sound judgment, honed through knowledge and practice, significantly increases survival probability.

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James Bradshaw of the Globe and Mail reports AIMCo names Ray Gilmour as permanent CEO:

Alberta Investment Management Corp. has made Ray Gilmour its permanent chief executive officer, removing the interim tag from the job he took more than a year ago when the province overhauled the pension fund manager’s senior ranks.

AIMCo’s board of directors appointed Mr. Gilmour as CEO effective immediately, according to an announcement released on Tuesday. His performance had been reviewed by a third party.

Mr. Gilmour was an unconventional choice to lead the $179.6-billion public-sector pension fund manager, which invests retirement savings for pension, endowment, insurance and government clients in Alberta. 

He was hand-picked by the provincial government to serve as interim CEO in November, 2024, after Finance Minister Nate Horner dismissed AIMCo’s board of directors, previous CEO Evan Siddall and other top executives.

Since then, Mr. Gilmour has helped steady AIMCo after a period of tumultuous change, and revamped the pension fund manager’s senior executive team. That included promoting Justin Lord to chief investment officer earlier this year.

In the first six months of 2025, AIMCo earned a 2-per-cent return on its investments during a volatile start to the year for markets, which were unsettled by shifting tariff policies.

“The board has complete confidence in Ray’s clear management expertise and proven ability to excel, both as leader of this organization and as an effective steward of the funds AIMCo manages on behalf of its clients,” board chair Stephen Harper said in a news release.

AIMCo’s board hired “an independent third-party organization to conduct a comprehensive review of Ray’s performance during his tenure as Interim CEO, including interviews with key stakeholders such as clients, members of the Executive Committee, and others across AIMCo,” spokesperson Sabrina Bhangoo said in an e-mail.

Mr. Gilmour has deep experience as a public servant. He held senior roles under several Alberta premiers, including a five-year stint as deputy minister of the province’s executive council and also a deputy role in its finance department. He spent an earlier part of his career in the banking industry.

But he arrived to lead AIMCo without the senior-level experience in investing and finance that would by typical for the CEO of a major pension fund manager. And his appointment, combined with the province’s decision to appoint the province’s deputy finance minister as a permanent member of AIMCo’s board, raised questions about whether the arm’s length pension fund manager was being drawn closer to government.

In a letter published by the province last summer, Mr. Horner laid out a “renewed mandate” for AIMCo, affirming that it “will operate independently and at arm’s length from the Government of Alberta.”

From the outset, people close to AIMCo and the Alberta government expected Mr. Gilmour to stay put, serving as a steady hand with a mandate to keep costs under control and boost satisfaction among pension plan clients.

“Over the past year, I have seen firsthand that the AIMCo team is talented and committed to excellence, and that it shares a deep sense of purpose to deliver long-term value for our clients,” Mr. Gilmour said in a statement.

Since Mr. Gilmour started at AIMCo, former private equity head Peter Teti was named global head of private assets. The pension fund manager also hired John Walsh as chief legal officer and promoted Janice Guzzo to chief human resources officer earlier this year.

Three board members who were previously dismissed by the province returned to form a smaller, revamped board chaired by Mr. Harper: private-equity executive Jason Montemurro, real estate investor Bob Dhillon and former Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan CEO Jim Keohane. AIMCo also added its former CIO Sandra Lau to the board.

Barbara Shecter of the National Post also reports AIMCo names former senior bureaucrat Ray Gilmour as permanent CEO:

Former senior bureaucrat Ray Gilmour has been named chief executive of Alberta Investment Management Corp.

Gilmour, Alberta’s former deputy minister of executive council, was installed as interim CEO of AIMCo on Nov. 8 last year, the day after the Alberta government jettisoned the entire board of the pension and endowment fund and four members of the management team, including then-CEO Evan Siddall.

Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner blamed the shakeup on rising costs without commensurate returns for the fund, which was set up to operate at arms-length from government and manages pensions for a range of clients including teachers, municipal employees and judges. But insiders said there was growing friction over decisions made by the management team and board, including those involving the establishment of international offices and energy transition funds.

Shortly after Gilmour was appointed interim CEO a little over a year ago, the Alberta government named former prime minister Stephen Harper as AIMCo’s chair and established a permanent unpaid board seat to be filled by the province’s deputy minister of treasury board and finance. The board position was added “to ensure more consistent communications between AIMCo and Alberta’s government.”

Before Gilmour joined AIMCo, he was Alberta’s deputy minister of executive council for more than five years and held other senior positions in government including deputy minister roles in finance, intergovernmental relations and infrastructure.

Prior to joining the Alberta government, he worked in the banking and financial services industry for 15 years. A chartered professional accountant by training, Gilmour also has a masters of business administration from the University of Saskatchewan.

“The board has complete confidence in Ray’s clear management expertise and proven ability to excel, both as leader of this organization and as an effective steward of the funds AIMCo manages on behalf of its clients,” Harper said in a statement.

When Harper was appointed chair a little over a year ago, three of AIMCo’s 10 former directors re-joined the scaled-down board.

At the time, pension and governance professionals expected that replacing the interim CEO would be a top priority for the reconstituted board and its chair to re-establish confidence in the arms-length model. But some also noted that it could be a challenge to recruit a skilled investment management professional in the wake of the government’s shock reorganization of AIMCo.

Earlier today, AIMCo's Board issued a press release stating they appointed Ray Gilmour as permanent CEO, effective immediately:

Edmonton – Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) is pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has appointed Ray Gilmour as the organization’s Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Gilmour has been fulfilling the role on an interim basis since November 8, 2024.

“The Board has complete confidence in Ray’s clear management expertise and proven ability to excel, both as leader of this organization and as an effective steward of the funds AIMCo manages on behalf of its clients,” said The Right Honourable Stephen Harper, Chair, AIMCo Board of Directors. “Together with Ray, the Board is committed to ensuring that AIMCo remains an admired institution that will continue to serve the best interests of Albertans for decades to come.”

“Over the past year, I have seen firsthand that the AIMCo team is talented and committed to excellence, and that it shares a deep sense of purpose to deliver long-term value for our clients,” said Mr. Gilmour. “I am proud to serve as AIMCo’s CEO as we continue to grow and evolve in ways that enhance our ability to deliver for all of our stakeholders.”

Prior to joining AIMCo, Mr. Gilmour served as Alberta’s Deputy Minister of Executive Council for more than five years. He has also held senior positions in the Alberta government, including Deputy Minister roles in Finance, Intergovernmental Relations, and Infrastructure. Prior to these roles in government, Mr. Gilmour worked in the banking and financial services industry for 15 years. Mr. Gilmour has a Masters of Business Administration from the University of Saskatchewan. In addition, he is a Chartered Professional Accountant and a graduate of the Institute of Corporate Directors Program.

About Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo)

AIMCo is one of Canada’s largest and most diversified institutional investment managers with more than C$182 billion of assets under management as at June 30, 2025. AIMCo invests globally on behalf of pension, endowment, insurance and government funds in the Province of Alberta. With offices in Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, London and Luxembourg, our more than 200 investment professionals bring deep expertise in a range of sectors, geographies and industries.

 Alright, let me get right to it.

First, congratulations to Ray Gilmour, he's now officially the permanent CEO of AIMCo with a mandate that lasts five years and is renewable if he does a satisfactory job. 

Second, I don't think anyone is surprised that Ray Gilmour was made permanent CEO.

In my opinion, this was in the works from the get-go after Alberta's finance minister Nate Horner dismissed former CEO Evan Siddall, some senior executives and the entire board of directors.

Of course, Mr. Horner and the Board reiterated the organization's independence and there was a trial run for Mr. Gilmour which he passed. 

Note this passage which was conveyed to James Bradshaw of the Globe and Mail:

AIMCo’s board hired “an independent third-party organization to conduct a comprehensive review of Ray’s performance during his tenure as Interim CEO, including interviews with key stakeholders such as clients, members of the Executive Committee, and others across AIMCo,” spokesperson Sabrina Bhangoo said in an e-mail.  

Why is this passage important? Well, it reaffirms the Board has the power to fire and hire the CEO and it did its job hiring a third party to conduct a comprehensive review Mr. Gilmour's performance  including interviews with key stakeholders such as clients, members of the Executive Committee, and others across AIMCo.

They basically wanted to make sure he's up for the job and the huge responsibility it carries and they wanted to make sure the public knows it was they and not the government of Alberta that made him permanent CEO.

Of course, the optics don't look good and critics will claim this is "backdoor government interference".

Fair enough but I think there was another problem here.

Who in their right mind would take the job of CEO at AIMCo after the purging and compensation was cut?

Mr. Gilmour just got a huge raise but others wouldn't move to Edmonton so easily under difficult circumstances and knowing very well what happened there.

To my knowledge, there were no other internal or external candidates reviewed for the top job at AIMCo and this too doesn't pass the smell test.

In other words, it confirms Gilmour was and remains Nate Horner's top choice and I'm sure Danielle Smith's as well.

Will the Alberta's government introduce a dual mandate like the one La Caisse has in Quebec?

Well, if that's the direction they're headed, Ray Gilmour is the best choice to lead AIMCo.

I also want to be fair here because thus far Mr. Gilmour has done a decent job and he obviously has the support of AIMCo's clients and that is the critical bit I want to emphasize here.

AIMCo manages the assets of many clients including Alberta's teachers and the CEO has to manage all these relationships very diplomatically. 

In that regard, maybe Ray Gilmour is doing a much better job than his predecessors.

We shall see, I think he deserves a fair shot and I remind my readers that not every CEO of a major Canadian pension fund comes from the investment world.

Michael Sabia came from Bell and prior to that he was also a high level bureaucrat in Ottawa.

Sabia did a decent job heading up the Caisse, reinforced governance, introduced gender equality at all levels and managed to kick-start the REM which is now operational and the envy of most North American cities (minus the glitches here and there).

But I told Sabia at a private party we both attended after he left the Caisse that he was damn lucky he never had to face a severe financial crisis and he wiped his eyebrow and said "PHEW!".

The test of any CEO in the investment world isn't when everything is melting up, it's when it hits the fan and you have shore up the troops and perform under very difficult and tough circumstances.

The late Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith once famously noted: "In a bull market, everyone is a financial genius."

Don't forget that, and in that sense I'm glad Ray Gilmour has a solid and experienced investment team headed up by CIO Justin Lord. He will be leaning heavily on them when the going gets tough.

Lastly, if Ray Gilmour succeeds and AIMCo continues to perform well over the long run, it could represent an existential threat to the other Maple 8 funds because politicians might be asking tough questions on compensation and more (I doubt it but you never know).

Below,Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is now among 21 MLAs in the province facing a recall petition — which represents almost a quarter of those sitting in the Alberta Legislature. The CBC’s Hilary Johnstone explains the next steps in the recall process.

I didn't know there were so many crazy lefties in Alberta, quite surprising to me. I'm on record stating Premier Smith is the best politician in the country by a mile and wonder which interest groups (Canadian or American) are behind these recall petitions.

Also, CNBC’s “Closing Bell” team discusses the outlook for markets, U.S. economy and more with Liz Thomas of SoFi, Lauren Goodwin of New York Life Investments and Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Three key takeaways:

• More than 8.3 million workers will get a raise starting January 1 as 19 states raise their minimum wages.
• For the first time, there will be more workers in states with a $15 or greater minimum wage than in states with the federal minimum of $7.25.
• Minimum wage increases are critical for improving affordability. State and federal policymakers should ensure wage floors meet the needs of all workers.

Nineteen states will increase their minimum wages on January 1, boosting earnings for more than 8.3 million workers by a total of $5 billion. In addition, 47 cities and counties will raise their minimum wages, adding to the number of workers likely to get larger paychecks because of lawmakers—or in some cases, voters—taking action to lift state and local wage floors.

Figure A

State minimum wage increases this January will boost wages for a broad range of working people and help shape a more equitable economy. Our estimates account for all affected workers: Both those directly receiving an increased minimum wage and those indirectly affected as employers adjust their wage ladders to the new wage floor. According to our analysis:

• Women make up the majority (58.1%) of affected workers.
• Black and Hispanic workers will disproportionately benefit. 10.7% of affected workers are Black, despite being 8.7% of the workforce in these states. Meanwhile, 38.3% of affected workers are Hispanic, despite being 19.8% of the overall workforce in these states.
• The vast majority (87.4%) of affected workers are adults, not teenagers.
• A quarter (25.3%) of affected workers are parents. 4.8 million children live in households with at least one worker receiving a pay increase.
• Nearly half (49.4%) are full-time workers and 41.4% have at least some college education.
• More than one in five (21.0%) affected workers have household incomes below the poverty line and 48.8% are within 200% of the poverty line.

Boosting the minimum wage is good affordability policy

Minimum wage increases are an essential tool for putting money in workers’ pockets. As concerns about rising prices and affordability dominate the news cycle, it is critical to recognize that “affordability” is a function of both prices and wages. And while prices in most cases are unlikely to decline significantly, policymakers can make decisions that boost wages for workers. In Hawaii, the minimum wage increase from $14.00 to $16.00 an hour will raise annual wages by $1,346 for a full-time worker (see Figure A). Missouri’s increase from $13.75 to $15.00 an hour will boost annual wages by $920 for a full-time worker.

Price increases are squeezing workers today because lawmakers for decades have made policy decisions that suppress workers’ pay, including allowing the federal minimum wage to stagnate. The federal minimum wage has not increased from $7.25 an hour in more than 15 years, during which time its value has eroded by more than 30%. In 2025, the federal minimum wage is below the poverty line, but it is still the law of the land in 20 states that have more than 60.2 million total workers (see Figure B).

Policymakers can protect the value of the minimum wage over time as prices increase. Many of the states with small wage increases in January, like Minnesota, are making annual inflation adjustments to their wage floor. Not only do these adjustments automatically protect workers’ purchasing power over time, they also provide predictability to employers, allowing them to anticipate and plan modest adjustments to worker pay each year. Despite the prudence of inflation adjustments, conservative policymakers in some states have still opposed it. In Missouri, Republican lawmakers stripped a successful minimum wage ballot measure of its indexing provision, leaving low-wage workers vulnerable to a weakening wage standard over time.

In 2026, more workers will live in a state with at least a $15 minimum wage than a $7.25 minimum wage

In the past decade, dozens of states have passed significant minimum wage increases to counteract federal inaction. In 2026, minimum wages in Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Missouri, and Nebraska will reach or exceed $15 an hour for the first time, meaning that a total of 17 states and Washington D.C. will reach that threshold. For the first time, there will be more workers living in a state with a $15 or higher wage floor than workers living in states still stuck at $7.25 (see Figure B). These increases have taken place in urban and rural states as well as politically “blue” and “red” ones. This milestone reflects the progress of the minimum wage movement over the past decade but also underscores the gap between how workers in some states are paid relative to their peers doing the exact same jobs elsewhere in the country. There are still 14 million workers earning less than $15 an hour who have been left behind because Republican lawmakers at both the federal and state level have denied them a raise.

Figure B

More states could pass a $15 minimum wage soon, despite interference from conservative policymakers. In 2020, Virginia passed legislation to reach a $15 minimum wage by 2026, but the law required reauthorization by the state legislature by July 2024. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin repeatedly vetoed those planned increases. Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger has promised to support a minimum wage increase. In Oklahoma, Republican Governor Kevin Stitt delayed a vote on a 2024 $15 minimum wage ballot measure until June 2026.

These delays not only push back potential wage gains for workers, they also chip away at the value of those increases because of inflation. Because the Oklahoma policy is a ballot measure, the language cannot be adjusted to account for the lost time since 2024. However, policymakers in Virginia could enact a new minimum wage target that accounts for the higher-than-expected inflation since the pandemic. This would likely mean a minimum wage of $16.64 in 2026 or $17.02 in 2027.1

Rising prices mean higher minimum wage targets are necessary throughout the country

Rising costs of living throughout the country will require policymakers to target minimum wages at higher levels than have been typical in recent years. When striking fast food workers in New York City sparked the Fight for $15 movement in 2012, the buying power of a $15 minimum wage was substantially higher than it is today. In 2025, a $15 minimum wage does not achieve economic security for working people in most of the country. This is particularly true in the highest cost-of-living cities. Table 1 compares the 2026 minimum wage and living wage for select metro areas across the country. The living wage standards are from EPI’s Family Budget Calculator (FBC), a measure of a modest yet adequate standard of living for families in each U.S. metro area and county. The living wage standards are for a single adult, assuming 81% of their total income is from wages.

The minimum wage does not exceed the FBC’s living wage in any county, but minimum wage increases make a significant difference for workers. Oklahoma City has the lowest living costs listed in the table, but the state minimum wage of $7.25 is only 42% of the living wage ($17.31). By comparison, Seattle will have a $21.30 minimum wage in 2026, almost 80% of the living wage in the metro despite its higher cost of living. Even outside of especially high-cost localities, strong minimum wage policies have set wage floors much closer to the living wage needs for workers. For instance, Missouri’s $15 minimum wage is 81% of the living wage in Kansas City, Mo. ($18.51).

Table 1

Workers are continuing to demand higher wages so that they can afford to live in the communities where they work. Hospitality workers in Los Angeles are poised to gain a $30 minimum wage, although the city council could water down the increases. The New York City mayoral campaign and new efforts in D.C. are also elevating ambitious minimum wage policies. As shown in Table 4, dozens of localities in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Washington are already implementing minimum wage targets above $17, $18, and $19 an hour. Seven localities in Washington will have minimum wages above $20 an hour.

Research has consistently shown that increasing the minimum wage remains a powerful tool for making the economy more equitable without causing job losses. The affordability crisis underlines how essential it is for federal, state, and local policymakers to take action so that workers are not left further behind, but lawmakers have taken relatively little new action on minimum wage policy in recent years. Of the 19 state increases this January, only two (Rhode Island and Michigan) are the result of policies passed in 2025. In addition, while Colorado, D.C., and Michigan all boosted their minimum wage this year, they also reinforced carve-outs for tipped workers. Even as millions of workers get raises this January, state and federal policymakers must do more to ensure their wage floors meet the needs of all workers.

Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Note

1. According to CBO CPI-U projections in January 2020, $15.00 in 2026 was equivalent to $13.00 in 2020. If we adjust $13.00 an hour to account for actual CPI-U increases and CBO projections for future growth (September 2025 projections), the equivalent value is $16.64 in 2026 or $17.02 in 2027. 

Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 41,000 jobs lost over October and November. Read the full thread here. 

Today the BLS releases two months of payroll data and one month of household data. A little jarring to see the first gap in data on the unemployment rate in the history of the survey. Second thing to note is that the unemployment rate is now 4.6% a significant rise from 4.0% in January.
#NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 7:36 AM

On the payroll side, there were net job losses in three of the last six months. Job growth averaged only 17,000 over the last six months, a significant slowdown.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 7:50 AM

Downward revisions for August and September plus large losses in October—due to an enormous drop in federal workers at the end of September—has meant a significant slowing in the pace of job growth. The three-month moving average of job growth fell from 232k in January to 62k in November.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:03 AM

Attacks on the federal workforce reached a fever pitch in October as federal employment fell by a whopping 162,000. Federal employment has shrunk an alarming 271,000 since January. The shutdown furloughs have no impact on these data. The cost of these losses are only beginning to be felt.
#EconSky

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:16 AM

Health care employment continued to rise, adding 46,000 jobs in November. Construction added jobs as well, but manufacturing and transportation and warehousing sectors continues to lose jobs, 58k losses in manufacturing and 60k losses in transportation and warehousing since January.
#NumbersDay

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:29 AM

While federal cuts drove large losses in October, it’s important to note that private-sector employment grew an average of only 44k per month over the last six months, down from an average growth rate of 130k in 2024. Employment is undeniably slowing this year and it’s not just about federal cuts.

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— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) Dec 16, 2025 at 8:46 AM

Today, OMERS announced it has completed a refinancing for its stake in Exolum:

December 15, 2025 – OMERS Infrastructure is pleased to announce the successful close of €770 million in new debt facilities at Borealis Spain Parent B.V., the holding company for OMERS ~25% stake in Exolum.

Exolum is a Spanish-headquartered global energy logistics infrastructure company providing specialised solutions to support the energy transition in which OMERS has been directly invested since 2016. The company owns the transmission pipeline network spanning 4,000km in Spain and operates a 2,000km pipeline network in the UK. Exolum also owns 68 storage terminals with a total capacity of 11+ million cbm and serves over 48 airports worldwide – including Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon, Lima in Peru, and Charles de Gaulle – making it a global leader in aviation fuel infrastructure.

Michael Hill, Executive Vice President and Global Head of OMERS Infrastructure, said: “The scale, pricing, and the engagement of both bank and private placement lenders in this process demonstrate the strong fundamentals and quality of the Exolum investment, as well as the expertise of our team. The offering was oversubscribed, with lenders recognizing the company’s robust growth, effective energy transition diversification strategy, and the strength of its leadership. We extend our appreciation to everyone involved and thank Exolum’s management for their valuable support throughout this process."

This announcement follows the recent close of an inaugural senior unsecured bond issuance totalling C$1.5 billion for OMERS holding in Bruce Power, a company in Ontario in which OMERS has been directly invested since 2003. 

OMERS has great infrastructure assets so it doesn't surprise me that this refinancing for its stake in Exolum went well.

They refinance to allow these companies to grow their operations.

It should be noted that back in June, OMERS Infrastructure hired Sara Petrov as its new Managing Director, Debt Capital Markets:

June 2, 2025 – OMERS Infrastructure today announced that it has hired Sara Petrov as its new Managing Director, Debt Capital Markets. Sara will have global responsibility for developing and managing OMERS Infrastructure’s financing partner relationships and supporting the global investments teams in financing activities at the initial acquisition and throughout each portfolio company’s growth and lifecycle. Originally from Toronto, Sara has since moved to New York and will continue to be based there in her new role.

Michael Hill, Executive Vice President & Global Head of OMERS Infrastructure, said: “Our investment teams raise and refinance over $4B of debt across our portfolio companies and for new investments annually. The size and number of our debt facilities, the complexity and breadth of our businesses, and the increasing opportunity we see to create value through optimal capital structuring and differentiated lender relationships has emphasized the importance of this new role at OMERS Infrastructure. Sara has a deep understanding of the debt capital markets, having had over 15 years of experience in the industry and we’re thrilled to welcome her to the team.”

 Fair to say Sara and her team hit the ground running

 As far as Exolum, it has an interesting history and ownership structure:

The ownership structure of Exolum Corporation, S.A., parent company of the Exolum Group, is regulated by Royal Decree-Act 6/2000 of 23 June, which provides that no natural or legal person may directly or indirectly hold more than 25% of the company’s capital or voting rights. It also provides that the sum of direct or indirect stakes held by shareholders with a refining capacity in Spain shall not exceed 45%.

IMCO took over the assets of Workplace Safety Insurance Board (WSIB), so you have two large Canadian pension funds that own 35% of the shares.

It's a huge company that provides the following services:

• Liquid product logistics: We offer state-of-the-art terminals, close to logistics and transport hubs, for the storage of bulk liquids and gases.
• Sustainable energies: We develop new business areas around decarbonisation, circularity and innovation, aligned with the energy transition.
• Aviation We are a global leader in independent aviation logistics. We want to continue to grow, building and operating infrastructure at airports around the world.
• Additional services: At Exolum we take care of every detail of the product, from its composition to its delivery. Our quality, metrology and additivation services guarantee safety, traceability and regulatory compliance at every stage of the process.

The company operates in 10 countries and its goal is to continue to expand globally, offering innovative and sustainable solutions by building strategic alliances and developing state-of-the-art infrastructures.

In order to do this properly, it needs to refinance its operations and raise debt when it makes sense to tap debt markets.

Again, not surprised the latest offering was oversubscribed, it tells you how much global investors value this company and its operations. 

Below, a clip going over Exolum's operations and how it makes the world a better place. Incredible infrastructure asset owned by same of the world's best global investors.

The U.S. Department of Justice filed suit on Tuesday, December 11, against the Minneapolis school district, alleging that the contract the district signed with the teachers’ union—the Minneapolis Federation of Educators (MFE)—discriminates against white teachers by requiring the school district to shield Black and brown teachers from layoffs. The lawsuit fundamentally misrepresents the innovative Minneapolis union contract, which protects educators from arbitrary dismissal while also seeking to preserve a diverse teaching workforce. The lawsuit is however aligned with the Trump administration’s revisionist version of history that positions white workers as the primary victims of employment discrimination. At the same time, this ahistorical narrative dismisses the long and well-documented record of discrimination against Black and brown workers evident in persistent racial disparities in unemployment and pay—patterns the contract seeks to remedy. The lawsuit was filed soon after the Trump administration’s racist decision to target Minnesota’s Somali community and is yet another example of how racial animus is a defining feature of Trump’s policies.

Throughout 2025, the Trump administration has discriminated against Black and brown federal employees—and taken actions that make it easier for all employers to follow suit—by weaponizing the enforcement of antidiscrimination laws against the people they were justifiably created to protect. This includes redirecting EEOC priorities toward so-called “DEI-motivated race and sex discrimination and anti-American national origin bias,” restricting use of disparate impact liability, and effectively ending enforcement of equal employment laws for the civilian federal contracting workforce by gutting the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs. The administration’s actions clearly demonstrate how risky it is for workers not to have the protections of a legally binding union contract.

A key element of any union contract is protection from unfair and arbitrary dismissals. For school employees, as for so many, the greatest risk is an employer who plays favorites. Whenever an employer has the unfettered right to decide who stays and who goes, workers suffer. In K–12 education, the risk of layoff is a persistent issue because school districts face endemic funding challenges and are frequently forced to reduce staffing levels. Because educator unions don’t want to give principals and superintendents the right to pick and choose who gets laid off based on their own whims, they have traditionally fought for seniority protections, often known as “last in, first out,” or LIFO. Under LIFO contract provisions, seniority is the sole determining factor in layoff decisions, with newer teachers laid off before more senior ones.

However, LIFO has a tremendous drawback: It hinders efforts to recruit and retain Black and brown teachers. In Minneapolis, for example, only 20% of Minneapolis teachers are people of color, even though fully two-thirds of the student body is Black or brown. Similar patterns are observed nationally. Almost half (49.5%) of K–12 students in the U.S. are Black, Hispanic, or Asian American and Pacific Islander, compared with only 24.4% of teachers. As studies have long documented, LIFO contributes to this disparity because even if a school district is able to hire more Black and brown teachers, they will be the first let go as more senior white teachers are retained.

At the same time, however, teachers’ unions are right to fight for layoff provisions that take away the arbitrary power of school districts to pick and choose who they keep. A core function of unions has always been to protect workers across occupations from being subject to the whims of supervisors. Indeed, Black and Hispanic workers report higher levels of unfair dismissals, suggesting that racial inequities would persist or even get worse in the absence of union protections. Union protections are also critical to narrowing pay disparities. According to a 2024 Rand report, Black teachers received lower average salaries and pay raises than white teachers. This difference was further linked to the fact that Black teachers were less likely to live in states with collective bargaining. The inadequacy of pay is one of the main reasons teachers report for leaving the profession, further contributing to the demographic mismatch between teachers and students.

This is the conundrum that MFE sought to address when the union went on strike in 2022: preserving protections against unfair dismissal while mitigating the inequities of LIFO. The solution they reached in 2022, a solution approved by 76% of MFE’s majority-white membership, was elegant and fair. The contract does not guarantee that Black or brown teachers will be protected from layoffs, contrary to the claims of right-wing groups that the contract is “woke” and “racially discriminatory.” Rather, the contract states that, when the district is forced to lay off teachers, it will protect teachers from populations that are “underrepresented among licensed teachers in the district.”

This means the contract’s protections can and will shift over time, as the composition of the teaching workforce changes. If and when Black teachers are no longer underrepresented in the district, they will no longer be afforded special protections against layoffs. Indeed, if someday it is white teachers who are underrepresented, the same contract provisions would apply to them. Far from embedding racial discrimination into the contract, these provisions support the development of a diverse teaching workforce while protecting worker rights.

The goal of a diverse teaching workforce is not just a noble one but also supports the success and well-being of students of color. Research indicates that the presence of teachers who reflect the diversity of the student body is linked to lower rates of suspension, lower dropout rates, greater college aspirations, and improved test scores. The contract MFE fought for will support the careers of Black and brown teachers and will lead to a teaching staff that looks more like its students, while continuing to protect all educators from arbitrary dismissal. The Department of Justice’s claims are a complete distortion of reality. Sadly, that is what we have come to expect from this administration, which seems dead set on rolling back decades of civil rights protections and abdicating the 60-year position of the federal government in setting a higher standard for employing a workforce that represents the diversity of the U.S. population. Hopefully, the courts will recognize this and allow Minneapolis Public Schools to continue its innovative program to protect a diverse workforce.

If the Trump administration follows through on its goal of deporting 4 million people over four years, the direct care industry would lose close to 400,000 jobs—affecting 274,000 immigrant and 120,000 U.S.-born workers. This dramatic reduction in trained care workers would compromise home-based care services, forcing family members to scramble for informal arrangements to support relatives who are older or have disabilities.

The Trump administration has consistently prioritized aggressive and arbitrary immigration enforcement, with the ultimate goal of deporting 1 million people every year of his term—regardless of their contributions to their communities and the U.S. economy. While the Department of Homeland Security’s pace currently falls short, increased enforcement would curtail business operations and reduce employer demand for both immigrant and U.S.-born workers. Over four years, 1 million annual deportations could cause total employment in the United States to fall by 5.9 million jobs, with particularly severe losses in construction and child care industries.

The direct care sector is also highly vulnerable to these enforcement actions. Amanda Kreider and Rachel Werner’s recent research indicates that job losses will significantly affect workers who provide long-term care in home- and community-based settings. The direct care sector—which includes home health aides, personal care aides, orderlies, psychiatric aides, and some nursing assistants—relies heavily on immigrant labor. Immigrants constitute nearly 30% of the direct care workforce, compared with 20% of overall employment. Among home health aides who assist with daily living and healthcare tasks, four in 10 workers are immigrants.

Kreider and Werner found that previous increases in immigration enforcement caused the direct care sector to shrink. If these patterns hold under the current enforcement regime, four million deportations over four years could cause direct care employment to fall by 394,000 (see Figure A).

Figure A

The majority of this employment decline—274,000 jobs—will result from the loss of immigrant workers. However, in addition to removing a supply of labor, deportations also make the labor market more precarious for immigrant workers. When immigrants face heightened risk of arrest, detention, or deportation, their ability to change jobs becomes severely constrained. With reduced labor market leverage, employers can worsen working conditions and suppress wages for all workers in the sector, not just those directly affected by deportations.

Contrary to the misconception that deportations will increase job opportunities for U.S-born workers, existing research consistently demonstrates that increased immigration enforcement reduces the employment for both immigrant and U.S.-born workers. Deteriorating pay and conditions for direct care workers would make U.S.-born workers unlikely to step in to replace the shortfall of immigrant workers, consistent with what studies have found when immigration enforcement decreased the size of the construction and child care sectors. In direct care, about 30% of the employment decline—the equivalent of around 120,000 jobs—will affect U.S.-born workers.

While employment reductions will be widespread, they will hit certain states particularly hard due to the geographic concentration of noncitizen immigrants in the direct care sector (see Table 1). New York faces especially severe challenges. Immigrants comprise two-thirds of the state’s direct care workforce, and more than one-third of all noncitizens working in direct care nationwide live in New York. If the Trump administration achieves its deportation goals, New York’s direct care sector could shrink by 45%.

Table 1

These large employment losses would translate directly into reduced availability of direct care services. Kreider and Werner found that past escalations of immigration enforcement led to substantial increases in the number of older adults living without any help at home. Among the Medicaid population, formal nonfamily caregiving declined while family-based caregiving increased, reflecting the contraction of the formal direct care sector.

This shift from formal to family-based care suggests that job losses in the direct care sector will have large spillover effects across the economy, greatly increasing their potential harm to even U.S.-born workers. As direct care supply becomes constrained due to deportations, some family members may need to leave their jobs or reduce their work hours to assume new caretaking responsibilities. Indeed, other research has shown that increases in immigration enforcement caused U.S.-born mothers to work fewer hours due to declining availability of household services like cleaning and child care. Family members may well be forced to choose between their careers and caring for aging and disabled relatives.

The Trump administration’s deportation agenda threatens to trigger a cascading crisis in senior and disability care that will harm families across the economic spectrum. Even in the absence of deportations, caretaking needs will accelerate as the older population grows tremendously, especially in the next five years. If the direct care workforce contracts by nearly 400,000 workers due to deportations, millions of older adults and people with disabilities will be left without the professional assistance they need to remain safely in their homes. Rather than creating jobs for U.S.-born workers as proponents claim, mass deportations eliminate employment opportunities for citizens and immigrants alike while dismantling a care infrastructure that seniors, people with disabilities, and families depend on.

Sean Conlon and Pia Singh of CNBC report the S&P 500 retreats from record Friday, closes down for week as investors rush out of AI trade:

U.S. equities pulled back on Friday as investors continued to exit technology stocks and move into value areas of the market.

The S&P 500 fell 1.07% to end the day at 6,827.41, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.69% to 23,195.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 245.96 points, or 0.51%, to settle at 48,458.05 after scoring a new intraday all-time high earlier in the session. The Russell 2000 index slid 1.51% to 2,551.46 but had also hit a fresh all-time high during the trading day.

The broad market index and tech-heavy Nasdaq were bogged down by a more than 11% drop in Broadcom, which some analysts think is because of margin compression worries. That’s even after the company beat fourth-quarter expectations and gave a strong forecast for the current quarter, saying artificial intelligence chip sales look to double.

As the AI trade faced more pressure, with names like AMD, Palantir Technologies and Micron seeing some losses alongside Broadcom, stocks in other areas of the market such as financials, health care and industrials received a bit of a boost. In those sectors, Visa and Mastercard as well as UnitedHealth Group and GE Aerospace were winners.

“Today is a value-outperforms-growth day,” said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. “Investors are definitely skittish as it relates to AI — not outright pessimistic, but just kind of, I think, cautious and nervous and hesitant.”

Friday’s action marked another day of the rotation trade, as investors on Thursday poured into cyclical stocks that are considered more sensitive to the economy while taking profits in growth-oriented names tied to the AI trade. The move comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time this year.

A rise in shares of Visa and UnitedHealth, along with others such as Nike, propelled the Dow to close at a record in the prior session. The S&P 500 notched a new closing high as well, while the Nasdaq ended the day lower as high-flying tech stocks such as Alphabet and Nvidia dropped.

“The same things don’t outperform in markets month after month after month for forever, so this is normal,” Ellerbroek also said. “It’s to be expected, but it is unwarranted.”

With the day’s losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored a losing week, with the former down 0.6% and the latter losing 1.6%. The 30-stock Dow posted gains, however, up 1.1% on the week. Small-capitalization companies have outperformed their larger counterparts, meanwhile, with the Russell 2000 up 1.2% this week after notching fresh all-time and closing highs on Thursday. 

It wasn't a good week for megacap tech shares as shares of Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO) sold off after earnings, the former more than the latter.

In fact, Oracle's stock is down 16% this month while Broadcom's is up 1%  in December despite getting whacked 11% today.

More broadly, megacap tech darlings are struggling lately as are other AI related stocks but the market has done well, setting a record.

How can this be? Well, if you look at year-to-date performance, Communication Services and Technology shares have outperformed all other sectors:

But over the past month, a different picture emerges: 

 As you can see, the megacap tech rally broadened out to reach Financials, Industrials, Healthcare and Staples.

I must admit, I was expecting more FOMO and concentration risk going into the stretch so I'm pleasantly surprised this market has broadened and other sectors are doing the heavy lifting.

Have a look at the stocks making new highs today, it's definitely not tech shares powering the S&P 500 higher.

That's why I called this comment the Ex-Mag7+ Santa Claus Rally, it isn't the usual suspects driving the market higher, it's quality, blue chip value stocks into the final stretch of the year.

Will this continue over the next two weeks and into the new year? A lot of big institutions are underweight Mag-7 so it's possible but in these markets, things can change fast from one month to another, or from one week to another!

But clearly there's no FOMO trade chasing Mag-7+ stocks higher, that never materialized.

All I can say is you need to look at all stocks on a stock by stock basis and assess downside risk.

For example, Oracle sold off this week after a disappointing earnings report. When I look at the weekly 5-year chart, I ask myself, can it go back below its exponential 200-week moving average of  $148 if the AI trade really blows up?:

Sure it can, highly unlikely but I'm not ruling it out completely. 

It can also stabilize around these levels ($185-$200) and head back over its 10-week exponential moving average of $227 and resume an uptrend (not likely in short run).

Where am I going with all this? Don't get flustered when high beta stocks sell off, know your levels, position accordingly, and add when momentum is going your way. 

On Broadcom, despite today's 11% smackdown, the chart remains extremely bullish, for now: 

Alright, let me end it there and wish everyone a nice weekend.

Below, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he's moving away from being overweight on Magnificent 7 stocks, sectors he's in favor of, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.

Also, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton professor emeritus and WisdomTree chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what's been happening in equity markets around AI stocks.

Third, Aswath Damodaran, NYU professor, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the professor's thoughts on megacap tech stocks, if the markets are bifurcated and much more.

Fourth, The 'Fast Money' traders talk about a report stating Oracle is delaying data centers.

Lastly, Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler chief market technician, and Matt Orton, Raymon James chief market strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the recent market rotation, how sustainable the market rotation is and much more.

Earnings above a cap aren’t subject to the payroll taxes that fund Social Security. As a result, billionaires pay the same tax as someone earning $176,100 in 2025 (the cap is indexed to the average wage, so it changes every year).

“Scrapping the cap” is a popular and effective way to address Social Security’s funding gap. Nearly three-fourths of Social Security’s projected long-term shortfall would be eliminated if the cap were scrapped without increasing benefits.

But wouldn’t such a move be opposed by high earners? The answer isn’t as obvious as you might think, because most workers with earnings above the cap stand to lose more from benefit cuts than from higher taxes. If nothing is done to shore up Social Security’s finances, EPI estimates that 70% of workers aged 32–66 who earned more than the taxable maximum in 2024 would lose more in benefit cuts than they would pay in higher taxes if the cap were scrapped.

The remaining 30% of these high earners, would, however, be better off losing 22.4% of their benefits beginning in 2034 than paying Social Security taxes on earnings above the cap. Unfortunately, this group includes politically influential multi-millionaires and billionaires.

Figure A

Figure A shows the break-even line below which workers are better off paying taxes on earnings above the cap than experiencing benefit cuts sufficient to eliminate the projected shortfall. For example, if the cap were eliminated, a worker who was 35 years old and earned below $236,000 in 2024 would pay taxes on earnings above the cap through age 66, but the value of these additional taxes would be lower than the value of forgone benefits if these were reduced by 22.4% (the amount necessary to restore the system to long-term balance).

Ultimately, most high earners stand to lose more from potential Social Security benefit cuts than from paying taxes on earnings above the cap. Scrapping the cap remains the most fair and practical path to safeguarding Social Security for future generations.

Methodology

This exercise assumes benefits are reduced across the board by the amount needed to restore the system to long-term balance (22.4%). This is a deeper cut than the initial 19% cut that would happen automatically in 2034 if nothing were done to increase revenues (a cut, however, that would increase to 28% over the projection period). It is, however, less than the 26.8% cut that would be needed to restore the system to long-term balance if retirees and others already receiving benefits are spared from cuts in 2034.

Real earnings are assumed to grow steadily by 1.13% per year, the Social Security actuaries’ long-term wage growth assumption. Future values are discounted to the present using a 2.3% real interest rate, also based on the actuaries’ long-term assumption. Life expectancy in retirement varies by birth year and is based on the actuaries’ cohort life expectancy tables, averaged between men and women.

The working age range covers 35 years before age 67, Social Security’s normal retirement age for most current workers. For many workers, these are their highest-paid 35 years and therefore the earnings that factor into Social Security benefit calculations.

The shares of workers with earnings above the cap and with earnings below the break-even amounts are estimated based on March 2025 Current Population Survey annual earnings microdata accessed through IPUMS, which reflect earnings over the previous 12 months. Break-even earnings are rounded to the nearest $1000.

Nadia Tuck of European Pensions reports NBIM 'all-in on AI' as it publishes new strategy:

Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) has said it is “all-in on artificial intelligence (AI)” in its updated strategy for 2026-2028.

NBIM, which is responsible for the management of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), outlines five key areas in its Strategy 2028 – performance, technology, operational robustness, people and communications.

Within its technology section, the investment manager said it will be “at the forefront of applying responsible AI in asset management”.

“Our target is to cut manual processes in half so our people can focus on what matters most – generating returns,” it stated.

As part of this, it plans to create digital colleagues for routine tasks while developing AI solutions that execute complex analytical tasks and provide insights to enhance decision-making.

“We will continue automation of our real asset investment processes and use AI tools to reduce manual burdens, speed up operations, and reduce the risk of potential errors. We will work with our real asset partners to modernise industry processes.

“Data is one of our core assets and we will make our data platform more user- and AI-friendly,” it said.

However, it stressed that it recognises that “success depends on teamwork not technology alone”.

“Technology will augment our judgment, not replace it,” NBIM stated.

The new strategy builds on the revised plan for 2023-2025 and uses the fund’s attributes, such as its long-term investment horizon, scale, people, technology and data, as its starting point.

NBIM CEO, Nicolai Tangen, said the strategy sets out “how we will work to become the best and most respected large investment fund in the world”.

Regarding investment, the fund’s goal is to maximise returns after costs.

Its strategy lists its three main investment strategies: market exposure, security selection, and fund allocation, which it pursues across equities, fixed income, and real asset management.

NBIM said it will be honest about “what works and what does not”.

“We will implement systematic debriefs to learn from our successes and failures. We will build a culture where people feel safe to go against the crowd and create mechanisms to challenge consensus thinking.

“Good investment decisions depend on good information. By further integrating risk and performance data into our investment processes, we aim to make better decisions,” it stated.

It will continue developing its Investment Simulator to enhance investment decisions and provide feedback to portfolio managers.

“This tool will make portfolio managers increasingly aware of their behavioural strengths and weaknesses so they better incorporate these in their decision-making,” it stated. 

Evilyn Lou of PERE also reports NBIM reveals three-pat plan to overhaul real estate strategy:

Norges Bank Investment Management – which manages the assets of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global – is implementing a three-pronged approach to revamp its real estate strategy in a bid to improve returns generated by the asset class.

“Real estate has changed a lot in certainly the last five years in pretty foundational ways,” said global head of real estate Alex Knapp, speaking with PERE at the fund’s London office last week. “And so I think it was time to do a material update to the real estate strategy for the fund.”

Although the update is part of a broader 2026-2028 strategy shift for the overall fund, the real estate business will likely see more changes than other parts of the organization “just given the nature of the market,” noted Knapp, who joined NBIM from Houston-based manager Hines in June.

The first major component is integrating NBIM’s separate teams for listed and unlisted real estate, which together account for roughly equal proportions of the fund’s $75 billion of equity in the asset class.

The second change is broadening the fund’s private real estate strategy. Previously, NBIM’s unlisted real estate investments were geographically restricted to eight cities – London, Paris, Berlin, New York, Boston, Washington DC, San Francisco and Tokyo – along with a globally focused logistics strategy.

The geographic focus will now expand from the eight cities to the larger regions of Western Europe and North America. Meanwhile, the fund is “studying” future investments in the Asia-Pacific region. “That’s a whole separate project,” Knapp said.

While a “good location” will vary by sector, “we’re trying to still pick strong locations and believe that’s a key driver of value, but just in a much broader way, so a much broader geographic remit, and with that, a broader set of tools to invest, especially on the private side,” he said.

Whereas NBIM’s real estate investment staff previously was grouped by cities, the team will now be organized by the four main food groups of office, logistics, retail and living, as well as a “fifth plank” for niche sectors. The 43-person team, which is now concentrated in NBIM’s London and New York offices, will not be changing materially in size, Knapp added.

Additionally, NBIM will no longer be restricted from investing in private market residential, with the investor having already built large positions in the sector on the public side.

Although private residential “was historically redlined” because of reputational concerns, “we’ll be very careful who we partner with and the types of deals we get involved in, because it’s clearly a concern from some stakeholders,” Knapp said.

“But obviously it’s also worth noting that we already have lots of residential investment and that our peer set of comparable pension and sovereign funds have large residential investments as well.”

The third component is taking a more strategic view of real estate. “The fund has almost doubled in size in the last five years,” Knapp remarked. “We need to work at a higher altitude and look more at big-picture trends that are going to impact real estate over the next five to 10 years, rather than micromanaging individual buildings.”

That will call for more of an indirect approach, whereby NBIM will make platform and fund investments for the first time.

Picking both the right strategy and the right partners will be paramount, with partners needing to fill three key criteria: an operational skill set, strong alignment with NBIM and the ability to operate at a certain scale.

“We’ll be evaluating all of our partners on the same basis,” Knapp said. “We have some great existing partners. We expect to have some new relationships as well, but we’re not looking to radically expand our partner base,” given the small size of NBIM’s real estate team.

“I think what we’ve advocated is a more flexible strategy to reflect a rapidly changing world with a certain amount of volatility in it,” he said. “The starting point is, let’s enhance the pool of potential opportunities we can consider and then focus our teams on better stock selection within that broader opportunity set.”

Return enhancer

NBIM’s planned overhaul of its real estate strategy comes a month after Norges Bank submitted a letter to the Ministry of Finance underscoring how the bank’s investment focuses in the asset class – traditional sectors, a limited number of countries and cities, as well as direct investments – resulted in a portfolio negatively impacted by major changes in the market, including structural shifts in office and retail demand and traditional sectors requiring more operational management.

“This has contributed to the real estate portfolio delivering weaker returns than the equities and fixed income we have sold to finance the investments,” Norges Bank governor Ida Wolden Bache and NBIM deputy chief executive Trond Grande wrote in the letter. “Norges Bank is not satisfied with the results in real estate management, and is now making changes to the strategy for real estate.”

Over the past five years, equity management’s contribution to the fund’s relative return has been 0.31 percentage points, while fixed income management’s contribution has been 0.18 percentage points, according to the letter. In contrast, real estate management has contributed -0.13 percentage points over the same period.

“Generally, you could say that we’re transitioning from being a core investor that holds assets forever into being more of a core-plus investor, so to have a slightly shorter horizon on our investments and definitely a greater focus on whether the current portfolio will deliver return for us over the next phase or not,” explained Knapp, who had spent the last 16 years at Hines, most recently as its chief investment officer for Europe.

The investor is looking to generate excess return over the benchmark index of equities and fixed income plus a hurdle, with the goal of beating the hurdle over the medium term. “We’re trying to be a return enhancer versus the index that we’re selling to do the real estate,” he explained.

At $75 billion in assets today, NBIM’s real estate portfolio is at the low end of its 3-7 percent target range, Knapp noted. However, “we’re not pushed in any way to invest. We’re really pushed to generate return. That’s the number one focus.”

The investor therefore will look to be “more thoughtful about the return prospects” for its real estate holdings. “We’re now looking at everything, saying, ‘Well, would we buy it at today’s pricing?’ If the answer is no, we’re going to sell it,” he said.

“So there will be more cycling for sure, and what’s key to successfully exiting assets is to have realistic pricing. I think our performance will be driven by a combination of smart new investments and smart divestments as well. We’re not going to hold a building just because it’s a beautiful building in a great location. We’re going to hold it because it’s got return potential.”

Overall, Knapp expects NBIM to be a net buyer rather than seller. “What we observe is that the market has a lot of investors with capital tied up. There are probably more net sellers than net buyers in the market right now,” he said.

“We’re definitely seeing a number of parties that are looking to rebalance their own portfolio – maybe they’re downsizing a bit, maybe they’ve reached the end of a business plan. So there’s a fair amount of dealflow, for sure.”

That's a fantastic interview with Alex Knapp, former CIO of Hines in Europe. He definitely knows what he's talking about in real estate and he and his team will focus on return enhancement and acquiring great assets in a new expanded real estate portfolio.

As far as NBIM's strategy plan for 2028, CEO Nicolai Tangen didn't mince his words:

The new strategy builds on the revised plan for 2023-2025 and takes the fund’s unique attributes as its starting point: our long-term investment horizon, our scale, our people and culture, and our technology and data.

Everything we do at the fund – from how we invest to how we develop our people – is designed to support our core mandate of maximising long-term return after costs, within an acceptable level of risk.

"The strategy sets out how we will work to become the best and most respected large investment fund in the world. We look forward to putting it into action over the next three years,” says CEO Nicolai Tangen.

The strategy has five key areas: Performance, Technology, Operational robustness, People and Communications.

I would invite my readers to take the time to read Strategy 28 here.

NBIM manages Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world.

The Fund consistently ranks at the top position among global pension funds and truly sets the bar in terms of transparency (Canadian pension funds also rank high).

In Real Estate which is a major focus of Strategy 28, I note the following:

We will take allocation positions to manage the fund's total risk profile. With delegated investment mandates, the fund’s total risk profile may require adjustment - even when individual portfolios are well-positioned.

We do not expect any material changes in our average risk utilisation, but our active risk-taking will vary as market conditions change. We will occasionally take allocation positions when abnormally large market dislocations create attractive opportunities. Such dislocations can occur when other investors are forced to act due to behavioural factors, regulatory requirements, or funding problems – exactly when our patient capital becomes most valuable.

The management mandate allows us to invest up to 7 percent of the fund in unlisted real estate and up to 2 percent in renewable energy infrastructure. In this strategy period, we raise the ambition level for our real asset investment strategies. We invest in real assets as part of our active management. The purpose of active management is to exploit the fund’s defining characteristics to achieve excess returns over time. We invest in real assets to maximise fund returns after costs. We believe that achieving this goal also improves the long-term trade-off between return and risk in the fund, and that the fund’s characteristics position us to achieve our goal.

As one of the world’s largest investors, we can access unlisted investment opportunities unavailable to smaller investors and negotiate favourable terms when investing indirectly. Our scale and reputation provide access to premier partners. Our long investment horizon and limited short-term liquidity needs mean that we can be patient through market cycles.

Real estate

Real estate is a large part of the overall investable market and an opportunity for us to enhance the fund’s returns. During this strategy period, we will shift from geographic concentration to sector diversification. We will to a larger extent delegate the operational management of the real estate portfolio and gradually invest more through indirect structures. We continue to view listed and unlisted real estate as complementary ways of achieving exposure to the real estate market, and our long investment horizon makes us well-suited to handle higher short-term volatility from the listed real estate portfolio.

• We will evolve from a combined strategy to a fully integrated strategy. For any desired real estate exposure, we will systematically evaluate whether listed or unlisted real estate provides the most attractive risk-adjusted return.
• In unlisted markets, we will continue to invest in large, traditional sectors such as office and logistics, but will gradually invest more in newer and higher growth sectors.
• We will invest more through indirect structures to get access to specialised strategies and operational capacity. However, most of the unlisted portfolio will continue to be directly invested with partners by the end of the strategy period. 

Anyway there is a lot more so please take the time to read Strategy 28 here.

Below, NBIM CEO Nicolai Tangen sits down with David Rubenstein, founder and chairman of the Carlyle Group and host of the David Rubenstein Show. They explore what makes truly great investors, why going against conventional wisdom matters, and the critical importance of humility in business and leadership. Great interview, take the time to watch it.

A new measure of poverty that accounts for health care needs and resources being developed by the U.S. Census Bureau—the Health Inclusive Poverty Measure (HIPM)—shows that poverty affects even more people in the U.S. than the typical statistics estimate. This is particularly true for people of color. This is primarily a function of the limited access to health insurance that Black and Hispanic communities endure. Black and Hispanic individuals, for example, are more likely than peers to be uninsured and to rely on Medicaid for coverage. This is why we warned about the uneven impact of cuts to the program early this year.

Policymakers are currently debating the merits surrounding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace subsidies that help more than 20 million people afford health insurance and kept nearly 2 million people out of poverty in 2024. These subsidies were introduced through the American Rescue Plan and extended through the Inflation Reduction Act; they increase the accessibility of health insurance by subsidizing the amount eligible individuals pay for the “benchmark”—i.e., the second-lowest tier plan on a sliding scale with income—such that most individuals making near-poverty wages can access these plans for free.

Allowing the ACA premium enhanced tax subsidies to expire will increase health inclusive poverty across groups, but the impact will be felt most heavily by those for whom accessing health insurance was already precarious. These households are disproportionately Black, brown, and working class because those households sit at the margin of health insurance affordability under normal circumstances and have seen the largest increases in insurance rates during the period when the enhanced tax credits have been available.

Communities of color trying to obtain health coverage now face attacks on two fronts. The more economically vulnerable among them face a more financially constrained Medicaid program with more stringent work requirements, purposefully meant to reduce access to health care. And those fortunate enough to afford care via the ACA marketplace now face the rising prospect of being priced out of coverage if the credits are allowed to expire this month. If the subsidies are allowed to expire, those who previously had free access to the benchmark ACA plans would lose it. The poorest eligible families would see the largest percentage increase in their annual health insurance premiums, while families with higher incomes would experience a higher dollar amount increase.

The end result of this two-pronged attack on public health, not to mention the dismantling of the country’s public health infrastructure that the Trump-Vance administration has carefully orchestrated since coming into office, will be an increase in the number of uninsured individuals, higher economic insecurity for families who need health care but can’t afford coverage, and increased poverty. These forces, as we illustrate below, will affect people of color unevenly.

Health inclusive poverty reveals deeper economic pain than monetary poverty—the attack on Medicaid and health subsidies will make things worse

More than 50 million people struggled with health inclusive poverty last year. This means more than one in seven (14.8%) individuals grappled with economic insecurity because they lack the resources to meet their health and broader needs (see Figure A). 

Figure A

The HIPM produced by the U.S. Census Bureau researchers broadens the basket of goods and services that families need to maintain an adequate standard of living beyond the two measures of poverty that the Bureau publishes annually. These two measures include the Official Poverty Measure (OPM) and the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM). While the SPM goes further than the OPM to account for geographic differences in housing costs, tax credits, and government benefits (like SNAP), it doesn’t incorporate health care benefits, subsidies, and expenses like the HIPM. The HIPM therefore enables us to examine the extent to which access to health insurance and key health care subsidies impact the standard of living of individuals and families.

As observed in Figure A, health inclusive poverty has exceeded monetary poverty in the U.S. for the greater part of the last decade. Last year, for example, the prevalence of health inclusive poverty was more than 4 percentage points higher than the incidence of poverty measured by the OPM, and about 2 percentage points higher than the SPM. Access to health insurance serves as a key driver of the differences we observe between estimates of monetary and health inclusive poverty. This is because uninsured individuals have zero health insurance resources to offset the health care needs that the health inclusive measure of poverty introduces to the original poverty thresholds under the SPM.

Recent policy choices under the Turmp-Vance administration are likely to further widen the gap between these measures. The Republican Budget Reconciliation bill is projected to increase the number of uninsured individuals by more than 10 million in the years ahead, and the expiration of health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act marketplace will quadruple the average net premiums for the more economically vulnerable and increase the number of uninsured individuals by nearly 5 million in 2026.

In 2024 alone, Medicaid kept about 15 million people out of poverty and health care subsidies that made health insurance more affordable for people in the ACA marketplace kept nearly 2 million people out of poverty. Without these support systems, about 17 more million people would have fallen below the poverty line in 2024, pushing the poverty rate from 14.8% to around 19.8%.

Health inclusive poverty affects people of color disproportionately

Black, Hispanic, and American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) individuals are more than twice as likely as their white peers to face economic hardship due to insufficient resources to meet their health and material needs. Last year, more than one in five Black, Hispanic, and AIAN people fell below the health inclusive poverty line (see Figure B).

Figure B

While the prevalence of health inclusive poverty exceeds that of monetary poverty for all racial and ethnic groups, the divide is starkest for Black, Hispanic, and AIAN individuals (as shown in Figure B). Compared with their non-Hispanic white peers, the percentage point difference between health and monetary poverty is more than twice as large for Black individuals and more than five times as large for Hispanic and AIAN individuals. These disparities are driven by unequal access to health insurance, as the uninsured rate is highest for Hispanic, AIAN, and Black individuals. More than one in six Hispanic and AIAN people, for example, lack access to health insurance. These groups are more than three times as likely as their white peers to lack access to health insurance. Slightly narrower, but just as harmful, disparities affect Black individuals. In 2024, more than 3.5 million Black people struggled without access to health insurance.

Statistically meaningful differences between both poverty measures are largest in Southern states, where communities of color make up a relatively larger share of the population. States where social and economic policy have historically been rooted in racism are also less likely to have expanded access to Medicaid. Census researchers find that states with expanded access to Medicaid coverage have health inclusive poverty estimates that are more than 2 percentage points lower than states without expanded access.

Black and brown people, as well as the working class and uninsured, skip or postpone needed health care due to cost

The U.S. health care system is designed such that access to adequate and timely care is based on a person’s ability to pay and often based on whether they are employed. Access to health insurance mediates access to health care, and employment is a major mediating factor for access to both health insurance and the income necessary to pay any out-of-pocket costs associated with care. In greed-driven health care systems like ours, poorer workers and their families often forgo or delay treatment that could improve or extend their lives because they can’t afford it.

Black and brown households are more likely to be uninsured, to report difficulties with reporting health care costs, and to report skipping or postponing needed health care within the past year than their white and Asian counterparts. Lack of access to adequate and timely care has long-term economic and health implications for Black and brown families and communities. Policies that threaten the already tenuous connection that marginalized groups have to the health care system, e.g., allowing the ACA premium tax credits to expire and restricting access to Medicaid, will contribute to the persistence of economic and health inequities across race and class.

HIPM underscores the economic and public policy imperative of expanding health care access to prevent poverty

The HIPM captures the impact of overlapping economic and public health policies—or lack of effective policies—on households’ exposure to poverty. It shows how policies like Medicare, Medicaid, and expansions to the Affordable Care Act protect families from financial distress and uncertainty. Racial and geographic differences in the HIPM highlight the variation in adequacy different groups experience across our patchwork health care system. It also helps us identify the impact that recent and ongoing policy choices will have on public health and equity.

The federal cuts to Medicaid that President Trump signed into law this summer, as well as the potential expiration of ACA health insurance subsidies, will disproportionately impact communities of color. Cuts to Medicaid will hurt Black and Hispanic adults and children most, as they are more likely than their peers to rely on Medicaid and CHIP for health insurance. The potential expiration of ACA subsidies will undoubtedly compound health inequities, pushing more than 2 million people of color into ranks of the uninsured. With both private and public options for health insurance falling further out of reach for the most disadvantaged, the administration’s attack on the country’s public health infrastructure will worsen health outcomes, widen disparities, and deepen the growing economic vulnerability of families struggling under Trump’s affordability crisis.