Discussing La Caisse's 2026 Mid-Year Results With the Head of Liquid Markets
Mathieu Dion of Bloomberg reports La Caisse posts 5% first-half return as stocks rally, private equity slumps:Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, Canada’s second-largest pension manager, fell short of its benchmark in the first half of the year as losses on private equity holdings pulled down the overall return.
Net assets rose to $552 billion for the Montreal-based firm, which handles pension money and other capital on behalf of the Quebec government. Its average return was 5.1 per cent over the past six months, below the 7.5 per cent for its tracking index, in an environment marked by geopolitical tension in the Middle East and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence investments.
Over a 10-year period, La Caisse has returned 7.5 per cent a year, nearly matching its benchmark.
Chief executive Charles Emond said the conflict in Iran, its impact on inflation and interest rates, and the sustainability of the AI investment cycle are sources of uncertainty for the second half.
“The enthusiasm surrounding AI is based on expectations — which are already very high — regarding both demand and the profitability of investments that have already been made,” Emond said during a press conference. “So we’re in a situation where risks are multiplying, yet we’re also seeing record inflows from investors being deployed into risky assets.”
La Caisse’s stock portfolio recorded a 14.6 per cent return, its “best combination of returns and value-added for a half-year period in 20 years, thanks to favourable positioning in global technology sectors,” La Caisse said in a statement. It noted the market is being driven by an “exceptionally high” concentration of performance from a small group of AI-related stocks.
But private equity went in the opposite direction, down 4.3 per cent, as holdings in technology, insurance and financial services saw their valuations crunched because they’re seen as more vulnerable to AI adoption, the money manager said.
The fixed income portfolio increased by 1.7 per cent as rising United States long-term yields partly limited gains. Premiums on private credit were “favourable,” especially in real estate and infrastructure.
Real assets returned 5.5 per cent, with positive results from both infrastructure, such as energy transmission and highways, and real estate. Office properties and shopping centres are recovering from the damage done during the COVID pandemic.
La Caisse said its depositors need an average return of six per cent to meet their long-term obligations.
Today, la Caisse issued a press release stating it posted a mid-year 2026 return of 5.1% over six months, 6.4% over five years and 7.5% over ten years:
- The first half of the year was marked by the conflict in the Middle East and strong enthusiasm for artificial intelligence
- La Caisse’s equity markets and infrastructure activities stood out during this volatile period
- This performance translates into $26 billion in gains over six months
- The overall return remains above depositors’ long-term needs and their plans are in excellent financial health
- The negative value added mainly stems from stock markets continuing to outperform private assets, limiting gains for a diversified portfolio
La Caisse presented today an update to its results as at June 30. Over six months, the average return on depositors’ funds was 5.1%, below its index’s 7.5%. The weighted average annualized return stood at 6.4% over five years and 7.5% over ten years, compared with a benchmark portfolio that posted returns of 6.8% and 7.6%, respectively. The benchmark portfolio recorded higher returns partly due to the extended superior performance of stock indexes compared with private assets. It should be noted that depositors have determined that they need an average return of 6% to meet their obligations over the long term. Net assets now total $552 billion.
Return Highlights“The first half of the year was dominated by two major trends: excitement for AI and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In Equity Markets, our teams outperformed in the context of a strong rally driven by AI. Meanwhile, our Private Equity portfolio was affected by AI’s impact on certain industries, such as insurance and services. Despite inflationary pressures, our Infrastructure portfolio once again was distinguished by outstanding performance,” said Charles Emond, President and Chief Executive Officer of La Caisse. “Over the long term, our well-diversified overall portfolio continues to demonstrate an ability to navigate various market conditions, delivering less volatile returns and a well-managed risk level for our depositors.”
EQUITIES
Equity Markets: Portfolio Outperforms in a Bullish, Concentrated and Volatile Environment
The first half of the year was marked by strong global stock market performance, particularly in emerging markets, despite the volatility caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market rally was once again largely due to a small group of AI-related stocks, which are benefiting from an unprecedented investment cycle in data centres. This concentration of performance in major stock market indexes remains exceptionally high by historical standards. Over six months, the portfolio posted its best combination of returns and value added for a half-year period in 20 years, thanks to favourable positioning in global technology sectors. The return was 14.6% over six months, above the benchmark index’s 13.6% return.
Over five years, the portfolio’s annualized return was 13.0%, in line with its benchmark index. The portfolio’s transformation during the period, in particular to gain more exposure to growth stocks and incorporate systematic management strategies, generated a significant shift in performance.
Private Equity: Industry and Portfolio Still Under Pressure
The private equity industry continued to face challenging market conditions: a decline in transaction volume, a limited number of IPOs and interest rates that continue to rise. The portfolio also experienced a decline in valuation multiples for certain companies operating in industries seen as more vulnerable to the increasing adoption of AI, such as technology, insurance and financial services. In this environment, the portfolio posted a six-month return of ‑4.3%. In contrast, its benchmark index, half of which is made up of public stocks benefiting from the opposite reality amid the enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, posted a return of 8.0%.
The five-year annualized return was 7.9%, driven by growth in the profitability of portfolio companies, which are managed both directly and through external funds. This performance resulted in nearly $30 billion of gains, making the portfolio one of the main contributors to the overall results for the period. The benchmark index stood at 12.9%. A decline in performance by a handful of portfolio companies and the stronger showing by the stock market indexes, which make up half of the benchmark index, explain the difference in returns.
FIXED INCOMECurrent Yield Gains Partly Limited by Higher Long-Term U.S. Bond Yields
In the United States, in an environment where the economy has been resilient against geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices and inflationary pressures, long-term bond yields ended the first half of the year higher. In Canada, better-controlled inflation and a more modest growth outlook led to a slight easing of long-term bond yields over the same period. In this context, the Fixed Income asset class, primarily made up of the Credit and Rates portfolios, generated a 1.7% six-month return, above its benchmark index of 1.1%. It benefited from a stable current yield of 2.1% and positive execution, particularly in Government Debt, which stood out due to its strategic exposure to emerging markets. Premiums earned on private credit were also favourable, particularly in the Real Estate Finance and Infrastructure Financing segments.
Over five years, the asset class posted an annualized return of 0.4%, still recovering from 2022’s major bond market correction. However, it continues to outperform its benchmark, which stood at ‑0.5%, due to the strong performance of all public and private credit activities, including the quality of the selection in Government Debt and Corporate Credit.
REAL ASSETSInfrastructure: Continued Strong Performance
Over six months, the Infrastructure portfolio continued to be a performance driver for the overall portfolio, with a solid 7.2% return. Growth in profits from our assets in the energy transmission, highway, and public-private partnership sectors were among the major contributors. Its benchmark index, comprised solely of public stocks, sits at 12.7%, boosted mainly by growing stock market values rather than by rising profitability of the companies in the index.
Over five years, the portfolio demonstrated its resilience across varied market conditions, delivering an 11.5% annualized return. The sound geographical and sectoral diversification of the assets, including favourable exposure to the energy and transportation sectors, as well as an attractive current yield of 5.2%, explain the excellent performance. The portfolio outperformed its index, which stood at 10.2% for the period.
Real Estate: Portfolio Continues Positive Trajectory, Industry Under Strain
For the first six months of the year, the portfolio posted a 2.7% return, compared with 3.2% for its benchmark index. The portfolio transformation plan to shift from an operator to an investor model is progressing well. Following years of challenges, values are stabilizing and the majority of sectors in the portfolio are showing positive performance, reflecting a gradual market recovery, including in the office and shopping centre segments. The difference from the index is due in particular to the underperformance of life sciences funds over the period.
Over five years, the portfolio’s annualized return was 0.9%, despite favourable performance in the logistics sector. Headwinds in the office sector—to which the portfolio has historically been overexposed in the United States—continued to weigh on returns over the period. The benchmark index stood at 2.2%.
Québec: Strategic Investments in Core Sectors Making a Difference for Building the Economy of TomorrowIn the first half of the year, La Caisse continued to support the growth of Québec companies in sectors that are strategic to Québec’s economy, such as artificial intelligence and disruptive technologies, in addition to renewable energy, while advancing several major infrastructure projects that are redefining communities and mobility in Québec.
Supporting companies’ growth
- Boralex: Announcement of the joint acquisition of the company, bringing its enterprise value to approximately $9 billion, to support its growth as an independent private entity, thereby doubling La Caisse’s stake to 30%
- Cologix: $240 million in senior financing for the MTL8 data centre, located in Montréal’s Technoparc and designed to meet AI-related needs
- nesto: Participation, alongside partners, in a $302-million Series E funding round to support the growth of this tech unicorn in the mortgage sector
- Innovair Solutions: $150 million to support the growth of this leader in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning solutions, while maintaining its roots and ownership in Québec
- Novisto: Equity investment in the company and a partnership to equip organizations in their sustainability transition
Structuring projects for communities and mobility
Financial Reporting
- A25 Concession: $280 million to acquire Transurban’s remaining stake, bringing La Caisse’s ownership to 100%
- REM: Commissioning the Anse-à-l’Orme branch of the network, which now operates across 23 stations and 64 km of track; announcement of two additional stations in the Sud‑Ouest Borough; and issuance of a $1.85-billion green bond, one of the largest ever issued on the Canadian market
- TramCité: Announcement of the preferred consortia (Tram Alliance and Québec Connexion Capitale) for the awarding of the civil engineering and systems contracts
- Québec City–Toronto Alto high-speed train: The Cadence team, led by CDPQ Infra, issued a pre-bid notice for the Canadian high-speed rail network
The credit rating agencies reaffirmed La Caisse’s investment-grade ratings with a stable outlook, namely AAA (DBRS), AAA (S&P), Aaa (Moody’s) and AAA (Fitch Ratings). Information on internal and external investment management costs as at December 31 will be presented in the annual disclosure.
About La CaisseLa Caisse has invested for over 60 years with a dual mandate: generate optimal long-term returns for its 48 depositors, who represent over 6 million Quebecers, and contribute to Québec’s economic development.
As a global investment group, La Caisse is active in the major financial markets, private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private credit. As at June 30, 2026, it held CAD 552 billion in net assets. For more information, visit LaCaisse.com, LinkedIn or Instagram.
La Caisse is a registered trademark of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec that is protected in Canada and other jurisdictions and licensed for use by its subsidiaries.
Alright, time to cover La Caisse's mid-year results and let me begin by stating the results are solid.
Any time you're delivering 5% in the first six months at a massive pension fund with an actuarial target of 6%, you're doing very well.
Of course, you wouldn't know it reading the media here in Quebec, another catastrophe for La Caisse, failing to keep with its benchmark:
I'm being facetious, but I find many reporters here in Quebec love to paint a negative story on La Caisse's results.I got on this morning conference call a bit late and the last question from a reporter was literally: "Why did you underperform Teachers' in the first half of the year?"
CEO Charles Emond explained that SpaceX added 4% to their mid-year results and that since stocks took off in 2023, La Caisse has outperformed Teachers'.
Of course, to an expert like me, this is all meaningless because La Caisse has more public market exposure than Ontario Teachers and if you want to understand performance of any large Canadian pension fund over the last three years, see who has higher public market exposure and you will see who has outperformed.
But SpaceX is a gem for Teachers, no doubt as it added significantly to its mid-year results and if Anthropic goes public this year, that too will add to their return.
I'm not here to compare pension funds. From my vantage point, they're all delivering well above their actuarial targets, and that is ultimately what matters most, not beating a benchmark.
Alright, what else do I like about La Caisse's results? They give a press conference in the morning where it's mostly CEO Charles Emond who goes over many items and they provide an attached presentation with slides going over their results:











I've said this before and I will say it again, when it comes to communicating their results, La Caisse sets the standard and follows NBIM's model in Norway with a conference call and presentation.
Are there minor tweaks I would do to improve it? Yes, I would make the press conference public like NBIM does (posted on YouTube) and maybe add a few things to their presentation (for example, post results, benchmark and add actuarial target rate too like BCI does).
But all in all, I give La Caisse an A+ on communicating its results, CPP Investments an A, and the rest a B or B+.
I know, it's a lot of work, these are mid-year results, but effective communication is paramount to effective pension governance.
Now, in terms of results, obviously the weak performance in Private Equity caught my eye, that portfolio continues to struggle both on an absolute and relative return basis, and quite honestly, it is a major drag on overall returns.
Over a longer period, the performance remains strong, and I discussed this with Vincent Delisle below.
Discussion With Vincent Delisle, EVP and Head of Liquid Markets
Earlier today, I had a chance to catch up with Vincent Delisle, Executive Vice President and Head of Liquid Markets to go over 2026 mid-year results.
I want to begin by thanking him for taking some time to share his insights and also thank Conrad Harrington and Jean-Charles Del Duchetto for setting up the Teams meeting and sending me material.
I also want to thank Jean-Charles for recording our interview on his end and sending it to me after because, for some reason, I had noise suppression on my Sound Recorder and Vincent's replies didn't come through on my end (technical glitch; see here for details on turning off noise suppression).
Anyway, right off the bat, I told Vincent the mid-year results are solid but the only thing that caught my attention was Private Equity's -4.3% for the first six months. I found that on the low end, not just on an absolute or relative basis to public market benchmark, but also relative to peers, so I inquired what went wrong there.
Vincent replied:
Private equity. Well, first of all, the asset class -- private equity -- is having a tough time everywhere. Interest rates moving higher. No exits. In our private equity portfolio, we have a few sizable public equity positions that are lodged in the private equity portfolio because of governance reasons. Some of them where we sit on the board, so they're not included in the public equity portfolio, but they sit within Private Equity. Charles alluded to WSP during the press conference. WSP engineering and construction is one of those areas that was hit by AI fears, you know, you had a hit in software (Sas-Pocalypse), engineering and construction. So the decline in stocks such as WSP, and Alstom as well, which is lodged in that portfolio, would explain the lower number that you're referring to.
I was relieved to hear this because I said, "so this is more of a cyclical rather than a structural issue".
He confirmed this:
This is more of a cyclical issue. The strategy in private equity pivoted towards more GP/ co-invest three or four years ago when Martin Longchamps joined us. These vintages are doing well. A few public stocks in there, such as WSP and Alstom, had a tough first semester. So that would explain the drag on the on the performance.
I pressed him on this and asked: "why not get rid of them from the PE portfolio?" (to put into public equity portfolio).
He explained:
95% of these large relationship stocks are in the public equity portfolio. WSP and especially Alstom. Alstom, we have a board seat, so there's a there's a governance difference that justifies why they're in the relationship portion, which is in private equity.
I moved on to Infrastructure, where La Caisse delivered solid returns again, but the portfolio underperformed its public equity benchmark which had a big beta effect.
Vincent replied:
Infrastructure for us has been the steadiest of all portfolios on the private side. You know, 7% to 10% returns almost regularly every year, delivering again this year. The benchmark on which we compare it is made up of 100% public equity, so the value, the relative here, is being hit, but it's still a solid foundation of the global portfolio, staying the course. It's a six-month number, so we're not concerned about that, but we're really happy with the steady performance of that portfolio, and most of that return comes from the dividends, from the revenue. So this is a very nice asset class for us within the privates.
Next, Real Estate, where I noted Rana's (Ghorayeb) strategy moving from an operator to an investor is taking hold nicely, and it seems to be finally turning the corner even if life sciences took a hit there.
Vincent confirmed this:
Some external funds in life sciences had an impact on the portfolio. So the story for Real Estate is it's a new strategy pivoting away from the historical operational aspect to being investors. That's working out well. We're doing this while Real Estate as an asset class is going through some very, very tough times because of yields. You know, there's a common denominator there between what's impacting private assets, but we're very encouraged by what we're seeing in recent months, almost 3% returns in the first half. So it's gone from being a drag on the global portfolio to a positive contributor and we're optimistic.
Great, I shifted my attention to public markets which is Vincent's area of expertise and noted they outperformed in the first six months there in what was a volatile environment.
He replied:
It is a very complicated environment to manage equities, there's no denying it. Listen, our numbers Are solid, you know. 75% of Public Equities is managed internally, and we've talked about this in recent conversations. Most of that is through quantitative, systematic strategies. They've had a significant contribution year-to-date, contributing to a very strong first half.
They had a very strong July as well and before you ask, that was a surprise to me. Our external managers also had a strong first half of the year.
What makes things complicated is that we keep moving from one theme to the other; you know, it's been AI over the last few years. But AI meant NVIDIA three years ago. Then it meant hyperscalers. This year there was South Korea and memory chip stocks. That's a challenge because you want to be agile, but you don't want to overly move the portfolio. So yeah, very happy with how we've we delivered some value added in the first half.
The last few weeks have been nuts as well. You've seen July and the last few weeks. So it's a market.
I interjected, stating I've been trading and watching the deleveraging of Situational Awareness, how hedge funds shorted their positions, Citadel scooped up the portfolio and stocks like Sandisk and CoreWeave have surged since then.
I said everything seems to be related to the momentum factor and if you watch the Momentum ETF (MTUM) closely, you realize where all the action has been lately.
I asked Vincent if his quant team trades these positions and he replied:
We don't, in terms of positioning When people ask me questions about our quant strategies, I tell them the turnover and positioning is actually quite low. We don't trade often, we stay the course. The portfolio is very well diversified.
That's what makes it complicated because you get these momentum swings, then you get the momentum crash in July. The momentum comes back. We're very happy with the numbers, but what remains a challenge is when you want to be diversified and you want to be (diversified).
Whether it's the global portfolio or within public equities, it is very tough to keep your head above water when only 25 to 30 percent of the benchmark is outperforming, and then you get these big shifts.
But our positioning was the right one: first half long semis/ underweight Mag Seven so that was a positive contributor. We had increased our beta exposure to Asian technology. That was Japan, that was Taiwan, that was Korea. We did this two years ago. Right now we're scaling back exposure there, but we were at the right spot at the right time to benefit from it.
I asked him what he thinks of the "rotational trade" where the rest of the market (ex-growth stocks) starts benefiting and whether that will take more precedence for the rest of the year and next year.
He replied:
I think it has to. The rotation, basically, the rotational trade means that eventually the market performs on more than only one thing. The rotational trade was alive and kicking in June and July, but the last three weeks, actually the last 14 days, rotation has gone away.
So we do believe in the rotational trade, S&P equal weight versus S&P market cap-weighted index. Our bias is to be long the rotation.
It's been a good few months in the second quarter, but the last few weeks the rotation has gone away.
But you have to believe that a rotation eventually happens because of everything that's going on in the AI space, the amount of money that's being invested in data centers that's benefiting the picks and shovels, the semiconductors, everybody building and selling you AI. For these investments to be profitable, you know you're going to have to see some results pretty quick, and the results have to mean that AI doesn't only benefit 10% of the benchmark; that it benefits the other 90% that's not moving that much.
I agreed and told him I saw the presentation at the end where they noted developments in the Middle East and the sustainability of the AI investment cycle as two key elements they're paying attention to.
I told them there are a lot of macro themes out there as well and asked him his thoughts. He shared this:
Yes, the macro landscape right now is basically a tug-of-war between inflation, which is higher than expected but hasn't moved that much post-Iran, and employment numbers in the US and Canada that are quite soft. So I don't see any inclination for the Fed to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle, and as long as rates don't go up that much, this cycle can continue. It's one of the few periods in my career where I look at the macro, but I spend much more time on the micro.
He added: "The Fed, the nonfarm payrolls don't move markets as much in an environment where it's all about GPUs, compute, data center spending, which is going to have a huge impact on leadership."
I told him that means this year can be a repeat of last few years and pension funds will continue to underperform their benchmark (except OTPP, which has SpaceX).
I asked him to share his thoughts on benchmark underperformance and he did:
It's a tough period for diversification as it's penalizing a lot of people right now. It's penalizing investors that look at risk and how they build their portfolios for Canadian pension funds, which have diversification through private markets.
It is a challenge when public equities perform so well. The last few years have been off the charts as far as I'm concerned, because public equities are performing double the historical rates, while bond yields are going up, which is really impacting negatively on the private side.
Our number for the first half, 5.1%, is a very solid number. It's a very solid number. In this context, with public equity outperforming, it's impossible to beat a benchmark for private portfolios.
The way I look at it, you know, these market cycles tend to last four to five years, 48 to 60 months. I like to study the ISM cycles, and that's how they work. So 23 bottom ISM rebound. We're probably close to a peak in the PMIs in the ISM.
Eventually, the drag on sentiment has to come from higher yields, whether it's the Fed or the long end, which has moved, you know, 50, 70-odd basis points this year.
So our sense is it is a struggle to have a diversified portfolio compared to the average ETF on the TSX or S&P 500, but still a big belief on our part that longer term you want that diversification.
We're targeting 6% return. That's what our depositors are asking. We adjust the risk accordingly. But I understand how people would look at the numbers and compare their own ETFs, and they have questions. We are living in an environment. This is a cycle where there's a lot of enthusiasm for the stock market.
I said Charles (Emond) alluded to this in the press conference earlier stating there is "recency bias" where investors extrapolate recent gains into the future.
I told him some parts of the market definitely remind me of 1999, maybe even worse and he responded:
One thing has changed versus 1999-2000: Retail participation is much higher. ETF flows are dominating sentiment. That's why you get these buy-the-dips almost on every dip; it comes back very quickly.
We believe in a well diversified portfolio, balancing risk and return, which can be boring if you're looking at the S&P going up 20-25 percent, almost on a yearly basis for the last three to four years, but you want to have these this structure, this construction for for days where it's more it's more challenging, and you could have a scenario where you get the rotation.
I know 2000-2001 was a rotational market, even though the Nasdaq declined. It was a rotational market in other parts of the economy, other sectors. That's my base case scenario. I don't think the market is going to go down significantly, but the rotation, you know, is something that needs to happen, especially for those who are pitching us the AI story.
Lastly, I asked him about Fixed Income and Private Credit where he shared this:
It's my most boring portfolio and my preferred portfolio. Our fixed income, our credit portfolio has added 150 basis points of value over the last five years. It's up 80 ish in the first half. Fixed income is obviously getting challenged by rising yields. We have more Canadian exposure in our Canadian government are playing with a little liquidity fixed income portfolio, whereas credit we are sensitive to US duration. So that was a little bit drag out there, but you know, borrowing can be good sometimes, and that's what fixed income is giving us.
We ended it there. I once again thank Vincent for another stimulating discussion; he knows his markets well and it's always fun talking shop with him.
And again, I thank Jean-Charles Del Duchetto for sharing his recording with me; he saved me (literally).
Below, CTV news reports Quebec pension fund La Caisse says the return on its fund for the first half of the year was 5.1 per cent, below its benchmark index’s 7.5 per cent.
You can watch the Zone Economie interview with Charles Emond in French here.
The Caisse critics in Quebec are tough, they're truly clueless about what counts in terms of sustainable returns over the long run.
Lastly, Mike Pyle, BlackRock, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

EQUITIES

Diversified by asset class and geography
Asset diversification
Geographic diversification
















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