Individual Economists

ADP: Private Employment Increased 41,000 in December

Calculated Risk -

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%
“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs added. The BLS will report on Friday, and the consensus is for 55,000 jobs added.

MSCI Will Not Exclude Bitcoin Treasury Companies Like Michael Saylor's Strategy From Global Indexes

Zero Hedge -

MSCI Will Not Exclude Bitcoin Treasury Companies Like Michael Saylor's Strategy From Global Indexes

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

In a major development for Bitcoin-focused corporations and the broader digital asset ecosystem, global index provider MSCI has concluded its review of digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) and decided against excluding them from its flagship indexes.

MSCI said the current treatment of affected companies will remain unchanged for now, meaning DATCOs already included in MSCI indexes will stay included as long as they continue to meet existing eligibility requirements. 

The index provider acknowledged feedback from institutional investors expressing concern that some digital asset treasury companies resemble investment funds, which are typically excluded from its indexes. 

At the same time, MSCI said distinguishing between investment-oriented entities and operating companies that hold digital assets as part of their core business requires further research and market input. 

As a result, MSCI said it plans to launch a broader consultation on the treatment of non-operating companies, while deferring any exclusions, additions, or size-related changes for DATCOs in the interim, according to the company announcement. 

The move reverses fears that have swirled in financial and crypto markets for months that firms — like Strategy — holding a majority of their assets in Bitcoin and other digital assets could be stripped from widely tracked global equity benchmarks like the MSCI All Country World and Emerging Markets indexes.

The proposal, first announced by MSCI late last year, would have effectively classified DATCOs — public companies with greater than 50 % of assets in digital assets — as fund-like entities rather than operating companies, and thus ineligible for inclusion in its core indices. 

That framework had ignited fierce criticism from industry players and advocates.

Strategy and bitcoin industry pushback against MSCI

Strategy - the largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company - and other DATCOs had been at the center of the debate. 

Strategy formally urged MSCI to scrap the proposal, arguing that excluding firms based on asset composition alone would be “misguided,” “arbitrary,” and could destabilize index neutrality. 

In an open letter to the MSCI Equity Index Committee, Strategy stressed that DATCOs are operating companies, not passive funds, and should not be judged solely on balance sheet Bitcoin holdings.

Industry coalitions such as Bitcoin For Corporations also mobilized support, framing the move as discriminatory and warning that exclusion could trigger billions in passive outflows and broader market dislocations.

Analysts had projected potential capital flight of up to $2.8 billion from Strategy alone if MSCI followed through with exclusion, with broader estimates of forced selloffs across crypto treasuries ranging much higher. 

The decision ends that uncertainty. It preserves the status of DATCOs within MSCI’s suite of indexes and avoids triggering index-linked passive selling that had loomed as a structural market risk.

Market reaction was swift: shares of digital asset heavyweights including Strategy saw immediate relief buying.

Shares of MSTR jumped over 7% after the news broke in after hours trading. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 08:05

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period

Calculated Risk -

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an adjustment for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 28 percent compared with two weeks ago. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from two weeks ago and was 133 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 31 percent from two weeks ago and was 108 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from two weeks earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 23 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates started the New Year with a decline to 6.25 percent, the lowest level since September 2024. Refinance applications were up 7 percent for the week but were at a slower pace than in the weeks leading up to the holidays,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA refinance applications saw a 19 percent increase, although that was a partial rebound from a drop the week before. MBA continues to expect mortgage rates to stay around current levels, with spells of refinance opportunities in the weeks when rates move lower.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were 10 percent higher than the same week a year ago but were down over the week following decreases in conventional and FHA applications. The average loan size was $408,700, the smallest in a year, driven by lower average loan sizes across both conventional and government loan types.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.25 percent from 6.32 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

Mortgage Refinance IndexThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September as rates moved sideways.

Perhaps We Should Actually Be Focusing On Fixing America

Zero Hedge -

Perhaps We Should Actually Be Focusing On Fixing America

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

After years of heading in the wrong direction, nobody can deny that the United States is facing overwhelming problems. So why don’t we focus on fixing those problems first? The truth is that we can’t do everything because our resources are very limited. U.S. households are more than 18 trillion dollars in debt, and the federal government is more than 38 trillion dollars in debt.

Even though we have literally stolen trillions upon trillions of dollars from future generations, our major cities are rapidly decaying, our infrastructure is crumbling, corruption is rampant, the middle class is shrinking, most of the population is struggling to even afford the basics each month, mass layoffs are happening all over the nation, our streets are teeming with hordes of drug addicts and homeless people, large numbers of Americans are selling images of themselves online just to make ends meet, and millions of others are living in their vehicles.

So why don’t we use what limited resources we have to fix our own problems?

If you don’t understand the point that I am trying to make, just go take a stroll through downtown Seattle.

The new mayor has decided that it will be her policy to allow people to openly do drugs in the streets

Seattle’s new ultra-woke mayor has triggered chaos by ordering police not to arrest people doing drugs on the streets of the city plagued by crime and homelessness.

Democratic socialist Katie Wilson, 43, was sworn in as the city’s 58th mayor on Friday.

The progressive politician who co-founded the Transit Riders Union has already taken steps that concerned residents and law enforcement officials say will destroy Seattle.

The president of the Seattle Police Officers Guild, Mike Solan, is warning that this will make the lawlessness in the streets of Seattle even worse

‘We’ve all seen how our streets can be filled with death, decay, blight and crime when ideology like this infects our city, Solan continued in his statement.

‘Now with this resurrected insane direction, death, destruction and more human suffering will be supercharged.’

Lawmakers and residents have reacted to this news in horror, as the city already has a raging homelessness epidemic that they believe this lax drug policy will only amplify.

Once upon a time, Seattle was one of the most beautiful cities on the entire planet.

So what in the world happened?

Of course it isn’t just Seattle that has been transformed into a crime-ridden, drug-infested hellhole.

All over the nation, chaos reigns in the streets of major American cities.

In fact, last night a “hammer-wielding maniac” destroyed a bunch of windows at the Cincinnati home of Vice President J.D. Vance…

A hammer-wielding maniac who smashed four windows at JD Vance’s Cincinnati home has been arrested by the Secret Service after an overnight break-in.

William DeFoor, 26, was charged early Monday morning with one count each of obstructing official business, criminal damaging or endangering, criminal trespass and vandalism.

Secret Service agents heard a loud noise at the home around midnight and spotted DeFoor running from the home, which is the secondary residence for Vance, his wife Usha and their three young children, who were out of town at the time.

Meanwhile, lawlessness also continues to run rampant in high places all over the country.

So what is being done about it?

After all this time, how many corrupt members of past administrations have been arrested and put in prison?

After all this time, how many corrupt corporate executives have been arrested and put in prison?

After all this time, how many of Jeffrey Epstein’s associates that also sexually abused young girls have been arrested and put in prison?

How can we tell the rest of the world how they should be doing things when we can’t even get our own house in order?

We have been getting hit by crisis after crisis, and economic conditions are steadily deteriorating.

In fact, we just learned that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for a 10th consecutive month

US manufacturing activity contracted for a 10th straight month in December, a survey indicated Monday, pointing to a continued drag in sentiment from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 47.9 from November’s 48.2 reading, the lowest of 2025 despite modest improvements in employment and some other categories.

Our artificially-inflated stock market continues to hover near record highs, but at the same time the number of large corporations that are going bankrupt just continues to rise

Between January and November 2025, at least 717 companies filed for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to data from S&P reviewed by The Washington Post.

That marks a 14% jump compared to the same period in 2024, and the most filings seen since 2010, the tail end of the Great Recession.

According to the Daily Mail, we are also seeing a very alarming surge in bankruptcies among small businesses too…

A frightening recession indicator is flashing red — and Americans can see it all over Main Street.

Experts told the Daily Mail that a sudden surge in bankruptcies and store closures — hitting mom-and-pop shops, small restaurants, and local retailers — could be an early warning sign that the economy is starting to crack.

One expert that was interviewed by the Daily Mail is warning that this surge in bankruptcies is a clear indication that a recession is coming

‘The little guys are going to start falling first,’ Joe Barsalona, a Delaware-based bankruptcy lawyer at Pashman Stein Walder Hayden, said.

‘A recession is coming. I agree with economists that the increase in small business bankruptcies is a canary in a coal mine.’

Of course many would argue that a recession is already here.

In recent months, I have written a lot about the mass layoffs that have been occurring all over the country.

Well, now Newsweek is reporting that over 100 companies have filed WARN notices for mass layoffs that will be taking place in January…

More than 100 companies have filed WARN notices indicating plans to lay off workers in January 2026, according to WARNTracker.com. The following companies have filed a notice.

I tried to warn my readers that a tsunami of layoffs was coming.

Now it is here.

The following is the full list of 119 companies that have filed WARN notices for this month…

  • AARP
  • AbbVie
  • Adams County Public Hospital
  • AeroFarms1526 Cane Creek
  • Amazon
  • Amentum
  • American Signature, Inc.
  • Apogee Architectural Metals
  • Archer Daniels Midland Company
  • Atkore Plastics Southeast
  • Augusta Sportswear, Inc.
  • Bechtel National Inc.
  • Best Dressed Chicken, Inc.
  • Blue Plate Oysterette LLC
  • Blue Shield of California
  • Bond 45 National Harbor Restaurant
  • Braga Fresh Foods, LLC
  • Building Materials Manufacturing LLC
  • BWW Law Group, LLC
  • Catalent, Maryland, Inc.
  • Charles River Laboratories
  • Clari Inc.
  • CNO Financial Group
  • Colonial Savings, F.A.
  • ColWyo Coal Company LP
  • CommUnify
  • Consolidated Hospitality Supplies
  • Corteva
  • CoStar Group
  • Couchbase, Inc.
  • CRST Expedited, Inc.
  • Dental Benefit Management, Inc.
  • Dillard’s Inc.
  • Dometic Corporation
  • DRT, LLC
  • DSV Air & Sea Inc.
  • enDevelopment Logistics, LLC
  • FedEx
  • FreshRealm
  • Fresno Economic Opportunities Commission
  • Galleher LLC
  • General Motors
  • Giesecke + Devrient ePayments America Inc
  • Gilead Sciences
  • Grand Lux Café, LLC
  • Great Floors
  • H&M Fashion USA, Inc.
  • HD Supply
  • Heibar Installations Inc.
  • Henkel Corporation
  • HRL Laboratories
  • Hudson
  • Huntington National Bank
  • Illumina
  • ImmunityBio
  • Inline Plastics
  • Institute of International Education
  • International Paper
  • Invincible Boat Company
  • Kloeckner Meals
  • Lakeshore Learning Materials, LLC
  • Louis Vuitton USA Inc.
  • Lumileds
  • Maritime Applied Physics Corporation
  • Marshalls of CA, LLC
  • Mattel
  • McDonald’s
  • MDWise
  • Meteorcomm LLC
  • Mettler-Toledo Rainin, LLC
  • Michigan Sugar Company
  • Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
  • Nationstar Mortgage, LLC
  • NIKE Retail Services, Inc.
  • Nordstrom Portland Rack
  • Ojai Valley Inn
  • Palo Verde Hospital
  • Panasonic Well LLC
  • Peraton’s Environmental Integration Services III
  • Post Consumer Brands, LLC
  • Presbyterian Home for Central New York, Inc.
  • Providence Health & Services
  • Rad Power Bikes, Inc.
  • RATP Dev and Midtown Group
  • Raytheon Technologies
  • Rebel Restaurants, Inc.
  • Red Run Corporation T/A Food Depot
  • Regional Medical Center of Central Alabama
  • Retail Services WIS Corporation
  • Revity, Inc.
  • Roads Express, LLC
  • Saddle Creek Logistics Service
  • SC Industrial Holdings, LLC
  • SDH Education West, LLC
  • SDH Service East, LLC
  • Shell Recharge Solutions
  • SLO Brewing Co. LLC
  • Smokin Bear LLC
  • Smurfit Westrock
  • Sodexo
  • Spirit Airlines, LLC.
  • Synopsys, Inc.
  • Takeda Development Center Americas Inc.
  • Terzo Enterprises Incorporated
  • The Cheesecake Factory
  • The French Gourmet, Inc.
  • The Taubman Company
  • TJX Companies, Inc.
  • TransAlta
  • United Supermarkets
  • Van Law Food Products, Inc.
  • Verizon
  • Virginia Mason Franciscan
  • Warner Music Group
  • Wells Fargo
  • West Fraser, Inc.
  • White Coffee Corporation
  • WIS International
  • WWL Vehicle Services America, Inc.

That is quite a long list, isn’t it?

The American people are not stupid.

They can see what is happening, and one recent survey found that 52 percent of U.S. adults actually believe that a recession has already started…

According to the ARG data, 52% of Americans believe the economy is already in a recession, and 64% say it’s getting worse.

These numbers suggest that many Americans are feeling the squeeze, even if official metrics don’t yet reflect a recession.

Only 11% think the economy is improving. Just 22% rate it as excellent, very good, or good, while 73% call it bad, very bad, or terrible, showing a clear gap between public sentiment and political narratives about economic strength.

Looking ahead, 60% believe the national economy will be worse a year from now, and just 16% say it will be better.

Yes, things are certainly bad now.

But they are not even worth comparing to what is further down the road.

So why don’t we use our limited resources to address the historic challenges that we are facing in our own nation?

If we love this country, we should try to fix it.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 23:25

Chevron Contracts 11 Tankers For Venezuela Port Calls As Don-Roe Doctrine Begins

Zero Hedge -

Chevron Contracts 11 Tankers For Venezuela Port Calls As Don-Roe Doctrine Begins

Chevron stands out as the clear winner among U.S. oil majors, given its unique positioning already in Venezuela. The company already produces a quarter of the country's oil output under a U.S. sanctions waiver and exports crude, giving it an operational and regulatory moat no other oil major can match.

With the Monroe Doctrine effectively rebranded as the "Don-Roe Doctrine," reflecting the Trump administration's new approach to exerting control and influence across the Western Hemisphere and rooting out China and Russia, the developments this past weekend involving U.S. Delta Force operators capturing Maduro do not come as much of a surprise.

Consistent with the Don-Roe Doctrine, Chevron has contracted a fleet of tankers scheduled to arrive in Venezuela later this month, reinforcing its role as the dominant player, for now, a critical conduit for Venezuelan crude into US refineries along the Gulf of America.

Key highlights from the Bloomberg report that first pointed out Chevron's 11 tankers headed to Venezuela:

  • Number of Chevron-chartered ships is the highest since October and up from nine in December, with arrivals planned at the Jose and Bajo Grande ports.

  • Of the 11 Chevron vessels, one has already loaded crude and two are currently docked; the oil is bound for U.S. refiners including Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum.

  • Chevron operates under a U.S. Treasury license and remains the only Western firm permitted to produce and export Venezuelan crude under U.S. sanctions.

On Monday, shares of Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil jumped on news of regime change in Venezuela. However, Chevron shares had given up most of those gains by late trading on Tuesday.

Here's more color on the Venezuelan crude industry from UBS and Goldman:

UBS analyst Henri Patricot

US captures Venezuelan leader, references oil investments, higher exports The US government announced on Saturday the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro following a military operation in Caracas (link). US President Donald Trump said that the U.S. "will oversee Venezuela until a safe transition to a legitimate replacement" and oil was mentioned several times. He said in a press conference that US oil companies would "go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, oil infrastructure" and that it would be "selling oil, probably in much larger doses" (link).

Could drive faster production rebound near-term if sanctions are lifted We see this weekend's developments as slightly negative for the oil price in the near-term. While the US President said that the US embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in full effect, the events likely reduce risk of a further sustained drop in Venezuelan production and there is potential for a sharper rebound in our view. This could be partially offset by a higher geopolitical risk premium. Venezuela has been producing ~0.9Mb/d in 2025, <1% of global supply. Latest reports suggest that production dropped ~150kb/d m/m in December because of US sanctions (link), from ~850kb/d in November (IEA). It had reached 1Mb/d as recently as October 2025 (see Figure 1) and the US strikes reportedly did not impact oil infrastructure (link). Hence, we believe production could return to 1Mb/d fairly quickly, if US restrictions are lifted, a small upside of 150kb/d vs. our 850kb/d base case for 2026. There may be potential to push it slightly further to 1.2-1.3Mb/d. This would be an additional headwind for the oil market in 2026, but would not completely change the picture (1.9Mb/d surplus is our base case).

Greater long-term potential but that requires material investments, stability There would be a greater impact if production returns to the level of 2.5Mb/d from 10 years ago but this would take time and require many things to go right. Unlike for Iran, Venezuela's oil infrastructure has indeed been impacted by years of underinvestment. As we discussed in our expert call on Venezuela back in 2022, raising production by ~0.5Mb/d could be done relatively quickly but getting back to 2.5Mb/d could take as much as 10 years. It would require major investments and for companies to do so, this would require political stability, which remains uncertain at this stage. Precedents of US-led or US-supported regime changes in oil-producing countries show how challenging this can be (see Figure 2). Iraq managed to grow production but we note this was during a different period for oil demand growth, $60 Brent doesn’t support significant growth investment and the US producer landscape and business model are significantly different. Meanwhile Libya has yet to return to pre-2011 production levels...OPEC+ partners maintain policy at monthly meeting, as expected Separately, the eight OPEC+ countries carrying out the voluntary cuts confirmed on Sunday their plans to pause production increments in February and March 2026 due to seasonality (link). This was in line with OPEC+ delegates' comments (link) and expectations, and so neutral for oil in our view. The statement is similar to the previous one and made no reference to Venezuela. The eight countries will next meet on 1 February but we believe the next important meeting is more likely to be the one in early March, when the group should decide whether or not to raise production in April. Our base case is that they will return to production increases, so as to fully unwind the cuts by year-end, in time to agree on a new framework for the whole group. The alternative would be for the pause to go on, more likely if we see signs of Venezuelan production rebounding, Russia continuing to produce below target and/or prices moving lower.

Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven

  • Following the US deposing of President Maduro, we assess the risks to our unchanged oil price forecast (Brent/WTI 2026 averages of $56/52) from Venezuela.

  • We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short-run from Venezuela depending on how US sanctions policy evolves. We estimate 2026 Brent averages of $58/54 in scenarios where Venezuela crude production declines/rises by 0.4mb/d by end-2026 (vs. our $56 baseline which assumes flat production of 0.9mb/d).

  • Along with recent Russia and US production beats, potentially higher long-run Venezuela production further increases the downside risks to our oil price forecast for 2027 and beyond. Although Venezuela produced ~3mb/d at its peak in the mid-2000s and holds ~1/5 of global proven oil reserves, any recovery in production would likely be gradual and require substantial investment. We estimate $4/bbl of downside to 2030 oil prices in a scenario where Venezuela crude production rises to 2mb/d in 2030 (vs. our 0.9mb/d base case).

About 20% of all global oil tankers are used to smuggle crude oil from countries under international sanctions, with 10% of these ships carrying Venezuelan oil. With Maduro out and the U.S. taking control of the Western Hemisphere, we suspect the dark fleet tanker industry will be dramatically hit - bad news for China's "teapot" refineries.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 23:00

Israeli FM Travels To Somaliland In First, Unprecedented Visit Since Recognition

Zero Hedge -

Israeli FM Travels To Somaliland In First, Unprecedented Visit Since Recognition

Via The Cradle

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited the Republic of Somaliland on Tuesday and is meeting the breakaway state's president, according to multiple media reports. Reuters cited sources as saying that Saar is currently in Somaliland and will meet the president of the state, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, in the capital Hargeisa.

Somaliland media reports also confirmed the Israeli foreign minister’s visit. The Israeli Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. According to Somaliland’s Information Ministry, Saar was received by senior Somaliland officials at the airport.  Last month, Israel became the first state to formally recognize Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia in 1991 but had never been recognized by any UN member state.

Israeli Foreign Ministry/Anadolu Agency

Somali officials and several Arab, Islamic, and African states have condemned the Israeli move – which was rejected by most members of the UN Security Council at an emergency meeting in New York.

The Israeli government has been aiming for Somaliland to serve as a potential destination for Palestinians that Tel Aviv aims to forcibly displace from Gaza, according to multiple reports over the past year.

After US President Donald Trump announced plans to expel the strip's population and transform Gaza into a “Riviera,” talks to relocate large numbers of Palestinians reportedly began with several African states, including Somaliland and Morocco. Trump walked back his comments earlier this year, but efforts to expel Palestinians have continued.

Somalia’s president said in a recent interview that Israel has demanded from Somaliland, as part of its terms, that the breakaway state receive displaced Palestinians from Gaza and allow the establishment of Israeli military sites. He added that intelligence confirms Somaliland accepted these terms.

"The Government of the Republic of Somaliland firmly rejects false claims made by the president of Somalia alleging the resettlement of Palestinians or the establishment of military bases in Somaliland," Somaliland's Foreign Ministry said in a statement in response.

"Somaliland's engagement with the State of Israel is purely diplomatic, conducted in full respect of international law and the mutual sovereign interests of both countries," it added. 

Ummmm...

The Foreign Ministry went on to say that the "baseless allegations are intended to mislead the international community and undermine Somaliland’s diplomatic progress," adding that "Somaliland remains committed to regional stability, and peaceful international cooperation."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 22:35

At CES, A Chinese Two-Legged Vacuum Signals The Next Phase Of Home Robotics

Zero Hedge -

At CES, A Chinese Two-Legged Vacuum Signals The Next Phase Of Home Robotics

At CES in Las Vegas, where robotics is a dominant theme this year, Roborock introduced a striking new home robot meant to persuade consumers that household automation is ready for everyday life, according to Bloomberg.

The Chinese company — formally called Beijing Roborock Technology Co. — revealed the Saros Rover, a robotic vacuum concept equipped with two independent wheel-legs that allow it to climb stairs and traverse uneven terrain. According to the firm, it is “the first robot vacuum cleaner with two wheel-legs.” The device uses artificial intelligence, motion sensors, and 3D spatial mapping, and in a media demonstration it climbed stairs, descended a ramp, and performed a small jump, which a company spokesperson said could help it handle obstacles.

Bloomberg writes that the Rover replaces last year’s headline-grabbing Saros Z70, which featured a mechanical arm capable of picking up objects such as socks. While that model drew crowds at CES, it later disappointed reviewers when it launched for $2,599 in the U.S., partly because it recognized only a limited range of items. Learning from that experience, Roborock is now taking a more cautious approach: the Rover does not yet have a confirmed release date.

Like its predecessor, the new robot moves slowly when operating on its legs, and the company declined to disclose battery performance. During the presentation, it also remained unclear how well the Rover can recover from a fall, though the spokesperson said that in such cases the robot will attempt to right itself without human help.

Robotics’ growing presence at CES has become so prominent that the event’s organizer, the Consumer Technology Association, created a dedicated exhibition area for the category. Alongside home devices like Roborock’s, companies are showcasing humanoid robots that claim to handle complex tasks such as folding laundry. Still, widespread consumer adoption faces major hurdles, including high costs, limited battery life, and the need for more reliable mobility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 22:10

Your Cholesterol May Look Normal... But This Hidden Particle Could Still Be Raising Your Heart Risk

Zero Hedge -

Your Cholesterol May Look Normal... But This Hidden Particle Could Still Be Raising Your Heart Risk

Authored by Brendon Fallon & Lynn Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

For decades, cholesterol screening has focused on a familiar set of numbers—LDL (“bad” cholesterol), HDL (“good” cholesterol), and triglycerides. When these values fall within the “normal” range, many people are reassured that their heart risk is low.

An LDL particle with its apo-B protein (blue). Apo-B particle count may offer a more accurate indication of atherosclerotic risk.JUAN GAERTNER/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY/Getty Images

However, according to leading preventive cardiologist Dr. Seth J. Baum, that reassurance can sometimes be misleading.

In a recent episode of “Vital Signs,” Baum explained that a largely inherited cholesterol-related particle—lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a)—can quietly raise the risk of heart attack, stroke, and aortic valve disease, even in people whose standard cholesterol tests look perfectly fine.

“Lp(a) explains a lot of heart disease we used to call bad luck,” Baum said. “It’s not bad luck—it’s biology we weren’t measuring.”

What Is Lipoprotein(a)?

Lipoprotein(a) is structurally similar to LDL cholesterol, but with an added protein called apolipoprotein(a). This extra component makes the particle particularly harmful because it promotes plaque buildup, inflammation, and abnormal clot formation within blood vessels.

Unlike LDL cholesterol—which is strongly influenced by diet, exercise, and medications—Lp(a) levels are determined primarily by genetics. They remain relatively stable throughout life and are largely unaffected by lifestyle changes.

Because of this, Baum and other preventive cardiologists often refer to Lp(a) as “genetic cholesterol.” It is inherited, invisible on routine lipid panels, and easily overlooked—yet clinically powerful.

How Common Is High Lp(a)?

Elevated Lp(a) is not rare. Large population studies and expert consensus estimate that more than 20 percent of people worldwide—roughly one in five adults—have Lp(a) levels high enough to increase cardiovascular risk. In the United States, this translates to approximately 64 million adults.

That prevalence rivals or exceeds that of many conditions routinely screened for in primary care. Yet most Americans have never had their Lp(a) measured.

Baum said that this gap in testing helps explain why some people develop heart disease at young ages or despite healthy lifestyles.

I see patients who’ve been told for years their cholesterol is fine,” he said. “Then they have a heart attack at 45. When we finally check Lp(a), the story suddenly makes sense.”

Normal Cholesterol Doesn’t Always Mean Low Risk

One of Baum’s central messages is that cholesterol numbers must be interpreted in context, not in isolation.

Lp(a) acts as a risk amplifier. When it is elevated, other risk factors—such as mildly high LDL, borderline blood pressure, insulin resistance, or smoking—become more dangerous in combination. The artery is not only accumulating plaque faster, but plaque is also more inflamed and more prone to forming clots. Two people with identical LDL levels may have very different outcomes, depending on their Lp(a) levels.

This helps explain why traditional risk calculators sometimes fail, particularly in people with heart attacks or strokes at unusually young ages, strong family histories of cardiovascular disease, or heart disease that seems disproportionate to lifestyle.

In Baum’s view, overlooking Lp(a) in these situations represents a major blind spot in prevention.

The Test Most People Never Get–But Probably Should

Because Lp(a) rarely changes over time, testing is usually only needed once. The result can meaningfully alter how clinicians assess risk and guide prevention—even before Lp(a)-specific drugs become widely available.

Lp(a) results may be reported in different units, but many experts consider levels greater than or equal to 50 mg/dL (or approximately 100 to 125 nmol/L, depending on the assay) to be clinically significant.

Importantly, high Lp(a) is not a diagnosis. It does not mean a heart attack is inevitable. Rather, it signals that cardiovascular prevention should be more proactive and individualized. “Lp(a) doesn’t act alone—it stacks on top of everything else,” Baum said.

He describes Lp(a) as a “triple threat” because it promotes plaque formation, enhances blood clotting, and intensifies vascular inflammation. “Inflammation is clearly involved in plaque progression and heart attacks,” he noted, explaining why Lp(a) carries risk beyond LDL alone.

Despite this, Baum estimates that only about 1 percent of the population has ever been tested for Lp(a). “The reason most doctors cite for not testing is that we don’t yet have an approved therapy to lower it,” he said. “But that’s not a good reason not to know the risk.”

Plaque builds silently over decades. “In the vast majority of patients with high cholesterol or Lp(a), you don’t see anything on physical exam,” he said. “You usually don’t see anything until there’s a heart attack or stroke.”

A Practical Prevention Plan

A common misconception is that high Lp(a) leaves patients powerless. Baum strongly disagrees. “You can’t change your genes, but you can absolutely change how aggressively you manage everything else.”

Lower LDL More Than Average

When Lp(a) is elevated, Baum often targets lower LDL or apoB levels than standard recommendations. Even modest LDL elevations can be more harmful in the presence of high Lp(a), so tolerance for “borderline” values is reduced.

Treat Risk Factors as Additive

Rather than viewing blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, and lifestyle habits separately, Baum said that they compound one another.

With high Lp(a):

  • Mild hypertension matters more
  • Smoking carries greater danger
  • Poor sleep, inactivity, and metabolic dysfunction become more consequential

This cumulative perspective explains why clinicians may recommend earlier or more intensive intervention—even when no single risk factor appears extreme.

Use Imaging to Clarify Risk

Baum highlighted the value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring, a specialized CT scan that detects and measures calcified plaque in the coronary arteries—the arteries that supply blood to the heart muscle.

Unlike blood tests, which estimate risk indirectly, CAC scoring provides direct visual evidence of atherosclerosis. A higher calcium score reflects a greater plaque burden and a higher likelihood of future cardiovascular events.

In people with elevated Lp(a) but otherwise uncertain risk, CAC can help determine whether genetic risk has already translated into physical disease. A positive CAC score suggests that plaque has begun to form, strengthening the case for earlier and more aggressive prevention. A CAC score of zero indicates no detectable calcified plaque at the time of testing and may allow for a more individualized approach, particularly in younger patients.

CAC does not replace blood testing, Baum said, but adds clarity when lab results and clinical history leave risk uncertain—helping tailor prevention to the person, not just the numbers.

Screen Your Family

Because Lp(a) is inherited, Baum strongly encourages cascade screening—testing close relatives once an elevated level is identified. “The youngest person in the family is often the one who shows up first with an event.”

Family-wide screening—including siblings, parents, and children—can improve early detection and prevention.

Advanced Options and Emerging Therapies

For patients with prior cardiovascular events and very high Lp(a), lipoprotein apheresis may be an option in specialized centers.

Lipoprotein apheresis is a blood-filtering procedure that removes atherogenic lipoproteins—particles that promote artery-clogging plaque. These include LDL cholesterol and Lp(a), the structural protein found on particles most responsible for atherosclerosis. It is currently available at about 50 centers in the United States.

“We can literally remove these particles from the blood every two weeks, and hopefully reduce the risk of another event.”

Several Lp(a)-lowering drugs are now in late-stage clinical trials, some showing 80 percent to 90 percent reductions in Lp(a) levels. Baum expects FDA-approved therapies in the coming years, though he cautions that outcome data—not just lab results—will determine their ultimate value.

Baum’s Top 3 Recommendations

After decades of treating patients with both typical and unexplained heart disease, Baum said that effective prevention begins not with fear, but with awareness, engagement, and early action. His top recommendations are practical steps anyone can take to better understand—and reduce—their cardiovascular risk.

1. Be Your Own Advocate

“The most important aspect of cardiovascular prevention is taking it seriously and advocating for yourself.”

That starts with asking questions, understanding your family history, and requesting appropriate testing—especially when something doesn’t add up. Knowing whether Lp(a) or apoB is elevated can reveal risks that routine cholesterol panels miss.

2. Work With a Knowledgeable Physician

Even with a trusted doctor, it’s reasonable to have a proactive conversation about cardiovascular risk. Baum encourages patients to ask about Lp(a) and apoB testing, particularly if there is a family history of early heart disease or unexplained events.

Patients with similar LDL levels may require very different treatment intensity depending on their genetic risk, imaging results, and overall clinical picture.

3. Talk to Your Family

When genetic risk is involved, one test result can help protect an entire family. Because Lp(a) is inherited, identifying it in one person often leads to early detection—and prevention—in siblings, parents, or children.

Lp(a) helps explain why heart disease sometimes strikes people who seem to be doing everything right. It is common, inherited, and invisible on standard tests—but no longer ignorable.

A single blood test can uncover hidden risk and reshape prevention for decades.

“You can’t manage what you don’t measure,” Baum said. “Lp(a) is one of the most important things we’ve been missing.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 21:45

Mapping US Interventions In Latin America

Zero Hedge -

Mapping US Interventions In Latin America

A lot has changed over the past 72 hours.

For Venezuelans, the events will have been particularly momentous. In a rapid attack, U.S. special forces entered the compound of now-deposed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and abducted both him and his wife, before flying them to the United States. The operation was accompanied by U.S. airstrikes targeting multiple sites in the capital of Caracas, with at least 80 people reportedly killed. Maduro is now in New York and is set to face trial today on drugs and weapons charges.

The capture has prompted a wide range of international reactions, from condemnation in Moscow to support from Argentina, where President Javier Milei is an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Among Venezuelans, both inside the country and within the diaspora, responses have been mixed, combining relief and celebration at the fall of Maduro with deep uncertainty over what will follow.

Although the abduction of Maduro was unexpected, the United States’ intervention in Venezuela is hardly the first in the region’s history.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced direct U.S. involvement, though to varying degrees.

 U.S. Interventions in Latin America | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Among these are Mexico, which was invaded in 1846 during the Mexican-American war following the U.S. annexation of Texas. Panama was invaded in 1989, when Washington sought to depose the country's de facto ruler, General Manuel Noriega. Cuba was invaded and occupied by U.S. forces in 1898, during the Spanish-American War and later became the site of the failed U.S.-backed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.

Elsewhere, U.S. involvement took different forms.

In Guatemala, the CIA orchestrated Operation PBSuccess in 1954, a covert coup that overthrew the democratically elected President Jacobo Árbenz. In Chile, the United States supported the military coup that deposed President Salvador Allende in 1973.

Other countries experienced more indirect forms of involvement.

During the 1970s, the U.S. supported Operation Condor, a regional campaign of coordinated political repression carried out across Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay with Brazil, Peru and Ecuador joining later.

Many of the areas shown in blue on this map are not sovereign states, but rather territories and dependencies of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and France.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 21:20

Morgan Stanley Lifts Gold Forecast To $4,800, Citing Fed Cuts And Global Risk

Zero Hedge -

Morgan Stanley Lifts Gold Forecast To $4,800, Citing Fed Cuts And Global Risk

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Gold prices are poised to climb to fresh record highs by the end of the year, with Morgan Stanley forecasting the bullion at $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, as falling interest rates, central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical risk continue to drive demand for the traditional safe-haven asset.

In a research note on Jan. 5, the bank said the precious metal’s rally is being underpinned by a combination of macroeconomic and policy shifts, including an expected easing cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, and sustained purchases by central banks and investment funds.

Bullion has already delivered a historic run. Spot gold touched an all-time high of $4,549.71 per ounce on Dec. 26, 2025, and finished the year up 64 percent, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979.

Safe-Haven Demand Reignited

Gold prices jumped again this week after the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. military forces heightened geopolitical uncertainty across energy and financial markets. Analysts say such flashpoints have revived safe-haven buying at a time when many investors were already positioned defensively.

“The situation around Venezuela has clearly reactivated safe-haven demand, but it comes on top of existing concerns about geopolitics, energy supply, and monetary policy,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany.

Investors typically seek gold during periods of economic and political stress, as the yellow metal tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments, when the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset declines.

Morgan Stanley said in its note that recent events in Venezuela were likely to reinforce gold’s appeal as a store of value, though it did not cite the developments as a formal input into its $4,800 forecast.

JPMorgan Chase also recently raised its gold price outlook, forecasting the metal at $5,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 and $6,000 in the longer term.

“While this rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear, we believe the trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted,” Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, said in a Dec. 18 note, citing continued diversification into gold by central banks and investors, as trade uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risk fuel safe-haven demand.

Analysts at ING also see more upside for gold. In a Jan. 6 note, the bank said gold purchases by central banks and expectations for further Fed rate cuts are underpinning the precious metal.

Fed Policy, Dollar Outlook Key Drivers

Morgan Stanley’s latest projection represents a sharp upgrade from its prior outlook. In October 2025, the bank lifted its 2026 gold forecast to $4,400 per ounce, citing expectations of U.S. rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong institutional inflows.

“Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk,” Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley’s metals and mining commodity strategist, said in the October note.

“We see further upside in gold, driven by a falling U.S. dollar, strong ETF buying, continued central bank purchases, and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset.”

Gold also recently overtook U.S. Treasuries as a share of global central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, with Morgan Stanley characterizing this development as a “powerful signal” that investors are confident in the yellow metal’s long-term value.

Exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold have posted record inflows, signaling interest from both institutional and retail investors.

“Even non-professional buyers, or retail investors, are joining the rush for gold,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the October note, adding that the demand for gold is further underpinned by expectations for a weaker dollar and a broader shift away from dollar-denominated assets.

The U.S. dollar ended 2025 down around 9 percent, marking its worst performance since 2017.

Silver, Copper Also in Focus

While gold remains Morgan Stanley’s top commodity pick, the bank also highlighted strength across other metals markets.

For silver, analysts said 2025 marked the peak of a structural supply deficit, with China’s new export licence requirements adding to upside risks. Silver surged 147 percent last year, its strongest annual gain on record, driven by a combination of industrial demand, investment inflows, and tight supply.

“Investor appetite remains strong, as silver-backed ETFs continue to attract inflows,” ING analysts said in a recent note, describing the 2026 outlook as “constructive,” underpinned by firm industrial demand from solar panels and battery technologies alongside sustained investment flows.

In base metals, Morgan Stanley said it favors aluminum and copper, both of which face ongoing supply constraints amid rising demand. Aluminum supply remains tight outside Indonesia, while signs of renewed U.S. buying have pushed prices higher.

Copper prices have also surged on the London Metal Exchange, with three-month copper hitting a record $13,387.50 per tonne this week. Morgan Stanley said U.S. import demand and persistent mine disruptions are keeping global markets tight heading into 2026.

Nickel was another standout, gaining 5.8 percent to $17,980 a tonne, its highest level since October 2024. Morgan Stanley said supply disruption risks in Indonesia are supporting prices, though it cautioned that much of the risk may already be priced in.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 20:55

Kim Jong Un Just Oversaw Hypersonic 'Nuclear-Ready' Missile Test, Blasts US As 'Rogue' State 

Zero Hedge -

Kim Jong Un Just Oversaw Hypersonic 'Nuclear-Ready' Missile Test, Blasts US As 'Rogue' State 

North Korea announced that it had successfully carried out a test of a hypersonic missile on Sunday - coming within 24 hours following the Trump-ordered US military raid on Caracas to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

According to a statement released by North Korean state media, "A sub-unit under a major firing strike group of the Korean People’s Army conducted a missile launching drill on January 4." The timing is unmistakably meant as a signal and warning to Washington, and to America's staunchest allies in the region.

The statement continued, "The drill was conducted as part of the operational evaluation of the sustainability, effectiveness, and operation of the DPRK’s war deterrent while evaluating the readiness of the hypersonic weapon system, verifying and confirming its capability for fulfilling mission and developing the missile soldiers’ firing capability."

Pyongyang framed it as a nuclear preparedness test, though thankfully there was no actual live test of a nuclear warhead, which hasn't happened in some time.

The missile test was overseen by Kim Jong-un, who said, "To be honest, our such activity is clearly aimed at gradually putting the nuclear war deterrent on a highly developed basis."

Importantly, Kim - who has long headed up a country Washington has dubbed a 'rogue state' - indirectly referenced the fresh US overthrow of Venezuela's Maduro. He stressed: "The reason why it is necessary is exemplified by the recent geopolitical crisis and complicated international events."

Internationally, most countries allied with the US and Europe see Kim as even 'worse' than Maduro - though of course the huge difference in the situation is Kim's possession of nukes. The United States doesn't dare try and start 'invasions' of nuclear-armed powers.

Kim has often reflected in speeches on the lessons of Iraq and Libya - where the US and West overthrew Saddam and Gaddafi. Had they possessed a nuclear capability, he argues, they would have never been removed and killed. Of course, he's right from a strategic point of view - and the leadership of Iran is no doubt nervously taking all this in too.

As for the fresh Venezuela case, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry did make clear the country's stance on the issue, in its statement saying:

"The incident is another example that clearly confirms once again the rogue and brutal nature of the US which the international community has so frequently witnessed for a long time."

"The Foreign Ministry of the DPRK strongly denounces the U.S. hegemony-seeking act committed in Venezuela as the most serious form of encroachment of sovereignty and as a wanton violation of the UN Charter and international laws with respect for sovereignty, non-interference and territorial integrity as their main purpose."

While the pace of North Korean missile tests has slowed of late, this latest follows a series of tests which marked an uptick late last year, including the launch of a long-range strategic cruise missile and testing of a newly developed anti-aircraft system.

Some past war-mongering from the Left, a longtime bipartisan orientation:

During the first Trump administration, Kim met the US president on a series of occasions. While historic, it didn't lead to the kind of breakthrough on 'de-nuclearization' that Washington and Seoul were hoping for, and Pyongyang has gone back to being on the extreme defensive.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 20:30

The Death Row Priest

Zero Hedge -

The Death Row Priest

Authored by Randy Tatano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

“Bless me, Father, for I have sinned.”

It’s what Catholics say at the beginning of confession.

But few priests have listened to the kind of sins like those Father Pat Madden has heard.

That’s because his “parish” (if you want to call it that), consists of the men on Alabama’s death row.

Father Pat, as he’s known in the area, recently retired after 42 years from St. Maurice Church in Brewton, Alabama. But he continues to preach the gospel, celebrate Mass, and minister to those facing execution at Holman Correctional Facility in Atmore, Alabama.

Father Pat Madden. Randy Tatano

He’s been visiting the Catholics in prison as a volunteer at Holman and nearby Fountain Correctional since 2002, but in September he had a new experience. “I’ve been doing the regular ministry for a long time, but it’s only been about a year now that I’ve really dealt with a prisoner who had an execution date and wanted me to be there in the execution chamber.”

In this case, Geoffrey Todd West was the inmate who wanted spiritual guidance. He was convicted in the 1997 capital murder of Margaret Parrish Berry, a store clerk who was the mother of two sons. At the time, prosecutors called this an execution-style killing as Berry was shot in the back of the head while lying on the floor. West was 21 at the time.

And, at the age of 50, he turned to God.

Though it is common for prisoners to claim they’ve found religion in an effort to get parole or a reduced sentence, Father Pat says this wasn’t the case for West. “There were no appeals left. He had no incentive, legally, to develop a deeper spiritual life. This was personal, a way in which to be reconciled with the family that he had committed that murder to and also to his family and himself.”

West started coming to Father Pat’s services about a year ago.

“He was interested in getting more deeply spiritual in his life and helping him to survive the experience of death row life. Later on, after I met him, that’s when he received his date to be executed. During that time, he had become Catholic, studied about the church, and joined the church.” While the specifics of confessions are sealed by the Catholic Church, Father Pat says West showed remorse for his actions. He baptized West this spring.

In Alabama, the condemned prisoner has a choice as to the method of execution: electrocution, lethal injection, or nitrogen hypoxia. West chose the latter. He would breathe pure nitrogen which would deprive his body of oxygen.

And, on Sept. 25, 2025, Father Pat Madden would be with him until the end.

11 a.m.: Father Pat arrives at the prison and meets with West and family members. They talk and pray until lunch arrives. The prisoner’s last meal request: quesadillas from Taco Bell. They all have lunch and continue their visit.

3:30 p.m.: West says goodbye to his parents and family members who leave. Father Pat and West’s lawyers remain.

4:20 p.m.: West is taken to his death row cell.

4:30 p.m.: Father Pat is taken to West’s cell. They spend the next hour talking and praying. “And that was a good time together of prayer, and he was able to really be in a better place.” He administers the Last Rites to West.

Approximately 6 p.m.: Father Pat is taken to a place few members of the clergy have been. “I was brought into the execution chamber. And we had talked earlier about the process of how the gas works and how this is his choice to be gassed and to die.” The priest and prison guards are the only ones in the chamber along with West. “We had eye contact during that time. And I often made a motion of pointing to heaven. He’s all strapped in, with each arm out, his legs together and wrapped with a sheet. He was very secure, and they had the gas mask on when I was brought in.”

While family members and media are allowed to witness the execution from an adjoining room, West could not see them through the one-way glass in the chamber. So he locked eyes with Father Pat. “He could see me through the whole thing. And I think that, for me, that’s what my job was. To be a prayer partner and somebody who was in the chamber that he could look at and know I represented his family. I think that gave him some peace and some comfort.”

The execution took about 20 minutes. Father Pat says West remained calm through it all. He didn’t cry, didn’t look scared. “There was no fighting or thrashing. He allowed it to happen, and he just went to sleep. So he would be taking some breaths, as he was unconscious, and that would slow down and slow down, and eventually, nothing.”

After the execution, Father Pat went home and watched a little TV to take his mind off what he had just seen. But the memory of what he experienced will linger. “I’ve got that image of him there, laying dead on the gurney with his arms out, and that'll stay with me. But having that other experience of providing comfort to him, that’s where I’m going to put all my energy.”

So, is West in paradise or condemned to eternal damnation after breaking the commandment “Thou shalt not kill”? Father Pat has some thoughts on that. “I'd say that there’s two kinds of experiences when somebody commits murder. There’s a person who is caught up in drugs or whatever, some addiction. And then there’s those that really have evil and selfish intent to harm others and to kill others. That’s a whole different thing. But everything lays in God’s heart and hand. At one point, Geoffrey was talking about how he looked forward going to heaven and just sitting in the lap of God, being alone with God and letting God take care of his sins, his crimes, and all the things he’s regretting over through his life. And, you know, that healed him, and he was looking forward to that.”

Opinions on capital punishment have always been strong and divided. As it turns out, the son of the victim did not want to see West executed. Depending on your point of view, this story has elements of justice or compassion, remorse or closure, confession or forgiveness. But from Father Pat’s perspective, he’s simply fulfilling his duty as a priest, and leaving the final judgment up to God.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 20:05

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Job Openings, ISM Services

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for December.

Appeals Court Agrees To Fast-Track Challenge To $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee

Zero Hedge -

Appeals Court Agrees To Fast-Track Challenge To $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal appeals court on Jan. 5 agreed to expedite a business group’s appeal of a court ruling that upheld the Trump administration’s decision to increase the fee for H-1B visas for employees in specialty occupations to $100,000.

A U.S. flag and a U.S. H-1B Visa application form, in this illustration taken Sept. 26, 2025. Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters

Washington-based U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell issued a ruling on Dec. 23, 2025, declining to block the fee increase. Howell also granted summary judgment in favor of the Trump administration.

The H-1B program allows U.S. employers to temporarily hire foreign workers in occupations that require “the theoretical and practical application of a body of highly specialized knowledge and a bachelor’s degree or higher in a directly related specific specialty (or its equivalent) as a minimum for entry into the occupation in the United States,” according to a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) web page.

Specialty occupations covered under the program include engineering, mathematics, architecture, medicine and health, education, law, and accounting.

Before the policy change, the fee ranged from $2,000 to $5,000, depending on the employer’s size.

Plaintiffs filed an appeal of Howell’s decision with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on Dec. 29, 2025. They included the Chamber of Commerce—a business federation with about 300,000 direct members—and the Association of American Universities, which represents 69 U.S.-based research universities, both of which had sued to block the policy.

The plaintiffs said in a motion to expedite the case filed with the appeals court on Jan. 2 that a ‍speedy review was necessary to preserve employers’ rights ahead of the annual H-1B visa lottery scheduled to begin in March. The Trump administration did not oppose the quicker timeline.

On Jan. 5, the D.C. Circuit granted the plaintiffs’ motion to expedite the case.

The court agreed to ‌a schedule that would allow oral arguments in the case to move forward in February. The first round of briefs is due from the plaintiffs by Jan. 9.

President Donald Trump signed Proclamation 10973 on Sept. 19, requiring that the $100,000 fee be paid before employers’ petitions for new H-1B visas are processed.

“The large-scale replacement of American workers through systemic abuse of the program has undermined both our economic and national security,” the proclamation states.

“Some employers, using practices now widely adopted by entire sectors, have abused the H-1B statute and its regulations to artificially suppress wages, resulting in a disadvantageous labor market for American citizens, while at the same time making it more difficult to attract and retain the highest skilled subset of temporary workers, with the largest impact seen in critical science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields.”

The number of H-1B visas issued annually is capped at 65,000, with an additional 20,000 for advanced U.S. degree holders.

California and 19 other states—including New York, New Jersey, and Illinois—are also suing the Trump administration over the higher H-1B visa fee.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta said in a Dec. 12 statement that the $100,000 visa fee “creates unnecessary—and illegal—financial burdens on California public employers and other providers of vital services, exacerbating labor shortages in key sectors.”

The Department of Homeland Security announced further changes to the H-1B visa process last month.

As of Feb. 27, 2026, the department will be implementing a “weighted selection process” intended to rein in the current random lottery system and prioritize higher-skilled and higher-paid foreign nationals.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said in a Dec. 23 statement that the current random selection process allowed U.S. employers to exploit the system by “flooding the selection pool with lower-skilled foreign workers paid at low wages, to the detriment of the American workforce.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 17:40

Two Caribbean Nations Agree To Accept Asylum Seekers From US

Zero Hedge -

Two Caribbean Nations Agree To Accept Asylum Seekers From US

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Caribbean nations of Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda announced on Jan. 5 that they agreed to take in third-country nationals who entered the United States illegally.

An undated photograph of Rendezvous Bay, Antigua. Antigua and Barbuda Tourism Authority

Dominican Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said the island nation has entered into an “internal agreement” with the United States that would allow illegal immigrants to be deported to Dominica in cases where the individuals cannot be returned to their home countries due to safety concerns.

Dominica has been in talks with the United States following U.S. President Donald Trump’s Dec. 16, 2025, proclamation that imposed “partial restrictions and entry limitations” on its citizens.

Dominica has been engaged in ongoing dialogue with the United States on matters of mutual interest, and an agreement has been reached on one of the primary areas of collaboration,” Skerrit said during a news conference.

Skerrit stated that during talks, the U.S. State Department acknowledged that no “violent individuals” or illegal immigrants who pose national security threats should be sent to Dominica.

The Dominican leader did not provide details on when the discussion with the State Department occurred and when transfers could occur.

Skerrit said the move would help to protect Dominican citizens’ access to “lawful travel, education, employment, and family connections” in the United States while also strengthening his nation’s cooperation with the U.S. government.

“I believe this will further deepen our longstanding relationship and signal clearly that Dominica remains a willing and reliable partner of the United States in our region,” he said.

Antigua and Barbuda officials said the country has signed a nonbinding memorandum of understanding proposed by the United States on the possible acceptance of “a very limited number” of third-country nationals, including refugees.

The United States has sought cooperation in transferring illegal immigrants who cannot be returned to their home countries due to safety reasons, according to Antigua and Barbuda’s Prime Minister’s Office.

The government said under the memorandum of understanding that the island nation would not take in anyone with a criminal record and would only accept third-country nationals who are “already present in the United States” and have passed the necessary intelligence vetting and national security assessments.

The Caribbean nation, also listed in Trump’s Dec. 16, 2025, proclamation, said it has been in talks with U.S. officials to restore normal visa issuance and renewals for its citizens.

The U.S. State Department has not released a statement regarding the agreements and did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

The White House said in a fact sheet that Trump imposed visa restrictions on nationals from Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, and several other countries, citing “severe deficiencies in screening, vetting, and information-sharing” needed to protect national security and public safety.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 17:00

Chris Wright Takes Venezuela Pitch To Oil Executives In Miami

Zero Hedge -

Chris Wright Takes Venezuela Pitch To Oil Executives In Miami

The Trump administration is accelerating efforts to draw US oil companies into Venezuela, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright expected to hold discussions with industry leaders this week as Washington maps out plans to revive the country’s collapsed energy sector, according to Bloomberg.

Wright will be in Miami for the Goldman Sachs Energy, Clean Tech & Utilities Conference, a major industry gathering that will bring together executives from Chevron, ConocoPhillips and other producers. Chevron remains the only global oil supermajor maintaining operations inside Venezuela .

President Donald Trump is betting that American energy firms will ultimately anchor Venezuela’s recovery, but companies are signaling they won’t rush in without firm political and legal assurances. Years of corruption and neglect have severely damaged production, leaving infrastructure in need of massive long-term reinvestment.

Bloomberg writes that despite Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven crude reserves, experts estimate restoring its oil system would require approximately $10 billion in investment every year for the next decade.

Industry participants say interest in the country is real, but the recent removal of President Nicolás Maduro alone is not enough to unlock capital. Companies want clarity on whether a durable government will emerge, whether contracts and the rule of law will be respected, and whether US political support for their presence in Venezuela will extend beyond Trump’s term in office.

The White House has already engaged multiple energy companies in early-stage talks, according to a US official. Administration officials say the private sector is prepared to move when conditions stabilize.

“All of our oil companies are ready and willing to make big investments in Venezuela that will rebuild their oil infrastructure,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 16:40

Neither A Hyperpower Nor A Fortress

Zero Hedge -

Neither A Hyperpower Nor A Fortress

Authored by R. Jordan Prescott via RealClearDefense,

In January 2017, Donald Trump stated America First would be the foundation of his administration's agenda.

America First defies easy explanation, primarily because its invocation is a declaration of opposition, a rebuttal to proponents of globalization or overseas intervention.

The first Trump National Security Strategy (NSS), issued in 2017, framed America First as a realist construct for responding to the growing political, economic, and military competition presented by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

The new 2025 NSS refines this construct by declaring the administration's commitment to the "continued survival and safety of the United States as an independent, sovereign republic."

Whereas administrations have been issuing such strategy documents since Congress established the mandate in 1986, the latest Trump Administration NSS is unique in its arrival eight years after its first term version in 2017. Given the rarity of presidents succeeding their successor, the likelihood another administration will have such an opportunity is low.

The question of what changed is easily answered by reviewing the history of the intervening Biden Administration's crises and failures. Nevertheless, China, Ukraine, and Israel were flashpoints in preceding administrations. Accordingly, what catalyzed the revision of America First from the focus on great power competition to the emphasis on sovereignty?

As the unipolar moment faded, the neoliberal and neoconservative duopoly comprising the foreign policy elite announced the advent of a multipolar system demarcated by antagonism between capitalist democracies—the United States and the European Union—and mercantilist autocracies—Russia and the People's Republic of China.

The perspective was persuasive because it was consistent with the history of the West in conflict with hostile ideologies and regimes—World War II against fascism, the Cold War against communism, and the global war on terrorism.

The elite proceeded by coordinating with European allies to expand regional institutions and isolate Russia while pivoting to East Asia to counter the PRC.

Nevertheless, the fact of a highly integrated global economy hindered these efforts. The Russian economy may have been one-dimensional but global demand for its oil and natural gas ensured its viability even when sanctioned. Finally, the PRC was the world economy's dominant manufacturing power and integral to global supply chains.

Trump pierced this framework during his first term by demanding European allies increase their contributions to NATO, pursuing rapprochement with Russia, and identifying the PRC as the country's main adversary. Notably, however, Trump sought not to contain the PRC but to decouple it from the American economy. In the aftermath of the "forever wars" he denounced on the campaign trail and the socioeconomic "carnage" he lamented in his inaugural address, the great power competition was to be an economic contest, not a military showdown.

By the end of his first term, Trump succeeded in reshaping the country's understanding of the challenge posed by the PRC. However, European allies generally resisted Trump's demands, domestic opposition hindered his attempt at détente with Russia, and the onset of the pandemic foreclosed any reconfiguration of the global economy.

The subsequent Biden Administration retained the adversarial posture vis-à-vis China but reinstituted its military component. Furthermore, the Biden Administration reverted to supporting Europe unconditionally and isolating Russia.

The subsequent crisis in Europe, however, revealed the defect in the false dichotomy of a world divided between capitalist democracies and mercantilist autocracies.

The elite's worldview overlooked another attribute differentiating the four poles—the readiness to interfere and intervene in other countries' affairs.

Europe possesses minimal capacity and is reliant on American military power; the PRC possesses an extensive military but espouses non-interference.

In stark contrast, the US and Russia have repeatedly intervened politically, economically, and militarily in other countries. The former possesses the world's most powerful military and intervenes globally given its myriad commitments abroad; the latter possesses Europe's most powerful military and intervenes locally given security concerns in its near abroad.

Before Trump, Russia had long warned expanding the alliance to include Ukraine would be a red line that would prompt a military response. Under Trump, the decades-long eastward expansion of NATO paused. After Trump, NATO again signaled its readiness to admit Ukraine.

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent its accession to NATO. Even though the invasion revealed significant shortcomings in Russia's military and Ukraine was not an ally, the Biden Administration and NATO allies mobilized as if it were.

Thus, the two states most prone to intervention faced off in Europe—America by virtue of its membership in an obsolete alliance and Russia over a nation it considered integral to its security. In the space of two years, the elite's flawed worldview led to the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II and a potential confrontation between the United States and Russia.

Ending the conflict and preventing a far more catastrophic one in East Asia, would require a transformation of foreign policy premised on sovereignty and autonomy, not interdependence and obligations.

Upon Trump’s return to office, an America First predicated on sovereignty became manifest.

Trump immediately reiterated demands that the European allies not only increase their NATO contributions but enhance their military capabilities as well. Similarly, the administration actively re-engaged Russia on how to end the war in Ukraine. Lastly, Trump augmented his bid to decouple from China, and global supply chains by extension, by imposing tariffs extensively.

The new NSS ratifies this continuity and outlines the application of the sovereignty prism around the world. Discarding worldviews predicated on regime types and economic systems and civilizational clashes, America First exorcises the impetus to intervention. Americans need no longer worry their government will send their blood or treasure overseas for some think tank fever dream.

If the NSS is kinder to America's enemies more than its friends, it is because sovereignty as a criterion reveals how relative it is in the modern world.

Post-Westphalian Europe has been brought low by its dependence on America. The purported threat from Russia has not stirred Europeans from their debellicized state. Furthermore, the great nations of Europe are no longer bearing children nor willing to work longer. Indeed, underappreciated is how much both the US and Russia desire the revitalization of Europe.

Pre-Westphalian territories dotting the continents are beset by anarchy, tribalism, violence, criminality, militancy, jihadism, and nihilism – and their inhabitants are relentlessly breaching the borders of other sovereign states.

Westphalian peers like the PRC, Russia, the Gulf monarchies, and rebounding Latin American countries all practice "flexible realism," seeking good relations and peaceful commercial relations without imposing change that differs widely from their traditions and histories. And now, with a strategy focused solely on core vital national interests, America will no longer undertake regime change.

In 2017, the terms security and sovereignty appear in the strategy 117 and 13 times, respectively; in 2025, the count is 34 and 21. The 2025 National Security Strategy is neither a suicide note nor a blueprint for autarky. The elite's version of security severely compromised America's sovereignty. The elite will lament the passing of a hyperpower and allege the erection of a fortress, but the American people will find peace and prosperity in reasserted sovereignty.

As one commentator concluded, the elite worldview secures an order, America First secures a people.

At the inception of American sovereignty, the Founding Fathers warned against entangling alliances and a military evolving into another branch of government; in the modern day, America First will ensure the Republic is a safe and durable platform from which Americans can scan the horizon and confidently tackle the challenges of a new century.

R. Jordan Prescott is a private contractor working in defense and national security since 2002. He has been published in The American Conservative, The National Interest, Small Wars Journal, Modern War Institute, 19fortyfive, Responsible Statecraft, and RealClearDefense.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/06/2026 - 16:20

Pages