Individual Economists

Trade Thaw: US Lifts Curbs On Ethane & Chip Design Software Exports To China

Zero Hedge -

Trade Thaw: US Lifts Curbs On Ethane & Chip Design Software Exports To China

With just six days until President Trump's 'reciprocal' tariff pause ends worldwide, the Trump administration is accelerating efforts to secure trade deals with key countries. On Wednesday, Trump signed a new trade agreement with Vietnam, and emerging headlines in financial corporate media only suggest negotiations with China may also be gaining traction. 

The first encouraging sign comes from a Bloomberg report stating that the Trump administration rescinded license requirements for ethane exports to China, allowing companies like Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer LP to resume direct shipments without seeking additional approval.

The restrictions, introduced a few months ago, had disrupted US-China petrochemical trade, forcing tankers to reroute or idle. With the rollback, exports are expected to rebound to seasonal levels of 240,000 barrels per day in July. 

In a series of notes, we've outlined how American petrochemicals—particularly ethane—are critical to Chinese plastics manufacturers, and how the Trump administration's export restrictions, used as leverage in the trade war, risked triggering supply shocks (read here) and mass factory shutdowns across China's industrial base.

With ethane flows set to rebound, another encouraging sign materialized overnight, as reported by Bloomberg in a separate article, the Trump administration lifted export license requirements for U.S. chip design software sales to China. 

The Commerce Department notified top electronic design automation (EDA) software companies — Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens — that licenses are no longer needed to sell to Chinese clients. Siemens has resumed full service, while Synopsys and Cadence are restarting operations.

The rollback reverses May's crackdown, which came in response to China's curbs on rare earth exports. Under the new trade agreement, finalized in London, the U.S. agreed to ease restrictions on EDA software, ethane, and jet engines, contingent on China accelerating export approvals for critical rare earth minerals. 

All of this suggests that the U.S. and China are making progress in trade talks ahead of the July 9 deadline, when Trump's suspended "reciprocal" tariffs are set to take effect. Hopefully, the Chinese export channel of rare earths can finally reopen for U.S. companies plagued with shortages. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 07:20

10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning WFB (work from beach) reads:

US dollar suffers worst start to year since 1973: Donald Trump’s trade policies and rising debt levels have sparked decline of more than 10% in first half of 2025, US dollar suffers worst start to year since 1973 (Financial Times)

The Jobs Market Is Starting to Fall Apart: Even if Thursday’s jobs report comes in strong, a look behind the headline number tells a different story. (Wall Street Journal) see also They’re in the Top 10% of Earners. They Still Don’t Feel Rich. By many measures, the most affluent Americans are thriving. But $250,000 doesn’t mean what they thought it would. (Wall Street Journal)

Amazon Is on the Cusp of Using More Robots Than Humans in Its Warehouses: The e-commerce giant now counts more than one million of the machines at its facilities. (Wall Street Journal)

E.T.F.s Are Booming. Mutual Funds Want In on the Action. Asset managers are eagerly awaiting an S.E.C. decision that would allow mutual funds to also trade as E.T.F.s — potentially changing how trillions of dollars are invested. (New York Times)

Surveillance pricing lets corporations decide what your dollar is worth: What if you show up at the hotel at 9pm and the hotelier can ask a credit bureau how much you can afford to pay for the room? What if they can find out that you’re in chemotherapy, so you don’t have the stamina to shop around for a cheaper room? What if they can tell that you have a 5AM flight and need to get to bed right now? (Pluralistic)

Call Center Workers Are Tired of Being Mistaken for AI: As more workers are asked by strangers if they’re bots, surreal conversations are prompting introspection in the industry about what it means to be human. (Bloomberg) see also Disrupted or displaced? How AI is shaking up jobs: New technology is starting to have a profound effect on work and employment. (Financial Times)

How Trump’s Tariffs Could Upend the Auto Industry—and Raise the Price of Your Next Car: President Trump wants an all-American car. U.S. vehicle sales could plunge by as much as 20% if he uses massive levies to get one. (Barron’s)

Inside Operation Gold Rush, largest health care fraud bust in U.S. history: Officials say they were able to stop Medicare from paying out $10 billion, but perpetrators still collected about $1 billion from other insurers. (Washington Post)

The seven things that make ADHD much worse: Experts point to a range of lifestyle and environmental triggers that can worsen this neurodevelopmental disorder. Here’s how to fix them  (Telegraph)

LeBron James’ contract decision marks major Lakers shift — toward Luka Dončić: The Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Dončić era has officially begun; LeBron James’ decision to pick up his $52.6 million player option for next season. His leverage isn’t what it once was these days, and that has everything to do with Dončić. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Kate Moore, Chief Investment Officer of Citi Wealth; responsible for overseeing investments, portfolio strategy and asset allocation for the trillion dollars Citi Wealth manages. Previously, she was Head of Thematic Strategy and PM for the Global Allocation Fund at BlackRock.

 

Processing Cycles: Computing will soon consume more energy air conditioning globally

Source: Tedium

 

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Euro Stablecoin By DWS And Deutsche Bank Gets Regulatory Approval

Zero Hedge -

Euro Stablecoin By DWS And Deutsche Bank Gets Regulatory Approval

Authored by Adrian Zmudzinski via CoinTelegraph.com,

AllUnity, a joint stablecoin venture by asset manager DWS and banking giant Deutsche Bank, received a license from the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), according to a Wednesday announcement.

BaFin has granted an E-Money Institution (EMI) license to AllUnity. With the license, the company plans to issue a regulated and BaFin-licensed euro-pegged stablecoin, EURAU, in compliance with the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework.

AllUnity said EURAU will feature institutional-grade proof-of-reserves and financial reporting.

The initiative, which also involves US-based Galaxy Digital, aims to provide euro-denominated digital assets that integrate seamlessly into the workflows of regulated institutions, fintech platforms and enterprise treasuries. Amsterdam-based Flow Traders will serve as the project’s liquidity provider.

Source: AllUnity

The stablecoin battle for Europe

The announcement comes as Europe emerges as a key battleground in the global stablecoin race, following the full implementation of MiCA on Dec. 30, 2024.

The development is partially due to the fact that the worldwide stablecoin market leader Tether has so far declined to comply with the MiCA framework. This led to USDt being delisted from Binance, as well as competitors such as Kraken and Coinbase, for users in the European Economic Area.

Stablecoins race for MiCA compliance

Earlier this week, Paxos announced the launch of its MiCA-compliant Global Dollar (USDG) stablecoin in the EU.

Mid-April reports revealed that the market cap of Circle’s MiCA-compliant stablecoin Euro Coin was growing quickly.

Circle’s stablecoins likely benefited from the implementation of MiCA, with Euro Coin and USDC reaping the rewards of its regulatory-friendly approach. The company’s stablecoins are the top euro and US dollar-pegged stablecoins that comply with MiCA.

Still, CoinMarketCap data shows that USDt remains the undisputed market leader, with a market cap of under $158 billion. USDt has a significant lead over the second-largest stablecoin, USDC, with a market cap of less than $62 billion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 06:30

These Are The US Cities With The Most And Least Health Insurance

Zero Hedge -

These Are The US Cities With The Most And Least Health Insurance

In 2023, 92% or 305 million Americans had health insurance, either for some or all of the year.

Health insurance coverage varies widely across the country, shaped by differences in state policies, economic conditions, and local job markets.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu, shows the top and bottom U.S. metropolitan areas by share of residents with health insurance, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Data is for 2023 and shows the share of civilian noninstitutionalized population with health coverage, public or private.

Cities With the Highest Rates of Health Insurance Coverage

In this table, we show the top U.S. metro areas by share of residents with health insurance.

Amherst, Massachusetts was the most insured metro area in the U.S. in 2023, with 98.4% of its residents covered under some sort of health insurance.

The cities with the highest rates of health insurance coverage are mostly concentrated in Massachusetts—one of the top states by median income and average hourly wage—and the Midwest.

Massachusetts is also one of the most highly educated states, which has shown to have a correlation with health insurance coverage.

Cities With the Lowest Rates of Health Insurance Coverage

Below we show the bottom U.S. metro areas by share of residents with health insurance.

Laredo, a border city in Southern Texas was the metro area with the lowest share of residents with health insurance at 70.7%.

Texas dominates the bottom of the ranking, with 7 of the 10 lowest-coverage metro areas. Many border cities including Laredo, McAllen (74.7%), and Brownsville (76.5%) have some of the lowest rates of insured populations.

Texas is one of 10 states that did not expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.

It also has some of the highest health care insurance costs in the country, which contributes to its relatively lower share of insured residents.

To learn health care insurance in the U.S., check out this graphic that visualizes life expectancy and health spending per capita across developed nations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 05:45

This Is Where Millionaire Populations Are Growing

Zero Hedge -

This Is Where Millionaire Populations Are Growing

The number of millionaires rose fastest over the past 10 years in Montenegro, the United Arab Emirates and Maltaaccording to a new report by Henley & Partners. 

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, the growth by up to 124 percent was largely driven by millionaires immigrating to the locations, the researchers concluded.

Malta's and Montenegro's investment for citizenship schemes are playing a role here as well as the two countries' mild climate and natural beauty which is attracting the super-rich and has led to a boom in luxury real estate and other lux offerings.

The United Arab Emirates has long been known as a luxury destination for expats and holiday-makers and like the two former countries also features a tax regime favorable to millionaires.

Poland, China and India meanwhile feature among the top 8 of the countries with the fastest-growing millionaire population in relative terms mostly independent of immigration.

 Where Millionaire Populations Are Growing | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

All countries have experienced strong economic growth and modernization over the course of the past decades.

Their large workforces have attracted foreign and domestic investments as the nations are moving toward middle and high income status. China and India, however, also feature among the countries with the largest net emigration of millionaires, surpassed in 2024 only by the United Kingdom.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 04:15

This Is Where Millionaire Populations Are Growing

Zero Hedge -

This Is Where Millionaire Populations Are Growing

The number of millionaires rose fastest over the past 10 years in Montenegro, the United Arab Emirates and Maltaaccording to a new report by Henley & Partners. 

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, the growth by up to 124 percent was largely driven by millionaires immigrating to the locations, the researchers concluded.

Malta's and Montenegro's investment for citizenship schemes are playing a role here as well as the two countries' mild climate and natural beauty which is attracting the super-rich and has led to a boom in luxury real estate and other lux offerings.

The United Arab Emirates has long been known as a luxury destination for expats and holiday-makers and like the two former countries also features a tax regime favorable to millionaires.

Poland, China and India meanwhile feature among the top 8 of the countries with the fastest-growing millionaire population in relative terms mostly independent of immigration.

 Where Millionaire Populations Are Growing | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

All countries have experienced strong economic growth and modernization over the course of the past decades.

Their large workforces have attracted foreign and domestic investments as the nations are moving toward middle and high income status. China and India, however, also feature among the countries with the largest net emigration of millionaires, surpassed in 2024 only by the United Kingdom.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 04:15

The Latest Trouble In Russian-Azerbaijani Relations Might Be Part Of A Turkish-US Powerplay

Zero Hedge -

The Latest Trouble In Russian-Azerbaijani Relations Might Be Part Of A Turkish-US Powerplay

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Turkiye sees an opportunity to turbocharge its rise as a Eurasian Great Power along Russia’s entire southern periphery in ways that autonomously align with American grand strategic interests...

Russian-Azerbaijani relations are in trouble as a result of two scandals. The first concerns the recent police raid against suspected ethnic Azeri criminals in Yekaterinburg, during which time two of them died in circumstances that are now being investigated. That prompted Baku to officially complain to Moscow, after which a vicious infowar campaign was launched on social media and even among some publicly financed outlets as well alleging that Russia is “Islamophobic”, “imperialist”, and “persecuting Azeris”.

This was shortly thereafter followed by a police raid on Sputnik’s office in Baku, which had been operating in a legal gray zone after the authorities moved to effectively shut it down in February, thus resulting in the detainment of several Russians. That earlier decision was suspected to be connected to Azerbaijan’s displeasure with Russia’s response to late December’s airline tragedy in the North Caucasus that was caused by a Ukrainian drone attack at the time. Readers can learn more about it here and here.

Before determining who’s responsible for the latest trouble in bilateral ties, it’s important to recall the larger context within which all of this is unfolding. Prior to late December’s incident, Russian-Azerbaijani relations were proceeding along a very positive trajectory in accordance with the strategic partnership pact that President Ilham Aliyev agreed to with Putin on the eve of the special operation in late February 2022. That built upon Russia’s role in mediating an end to the Second Karabakh War in November 2020.

More recently, Putin visited Baku last August, the significance of which was analyzed here and here. This was followed by Aliyev visiting Moscow in October in connection with the CIS Heads of State Summit. Shortly before late December’s airline tragedy, Aliyev then gave an extended interview to Rossiya Segodnya head Dmitry Kiselyov in Baku, where he elaborated on Azerbaijan’s multi-aligned foreign policy and newfound suspicions of the West’s regional intentions towards the South Caucasus.

On that topic, the Biden Administration sought to exploit Armenia’s loss in the Second Karabakh War to more radically turn it against Russia and thus transform the country into a joint French-US protectorate for dividing-and-ruling the region, which worsened relations with Azerbaijan. The Trump Administration appears to be reconsidering that, however, and might have even agreed to let Armenia become a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate instead. It’s this perception that’s driving the latest unrest in Armenia.

From Russia’s perspective, the French-US protectorate scenario could spark another regional war that might spiral out of control with unpredictable consequences for Moscow if they weaponize the revival of Armenian revanchism. Similarly, the Azeri-Turkish protectorate scenario could turbocharge Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power if it leads to an expansion of its influence (especially military) in Central Asia. The ideal scenario is therefore for Armenia to return to its traditional status as a Russian ally.

Having explained the context within which the latest trouble is unfolding, it’s now time to determine who’s responsible. Objectively speaking, the Azerbaijani authorities overreacted to the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg, which signaled to civil society that it’s acceptable (at least for now) to wage a vicious infowar campaign against Russia. Some officials with an unclear connection to Aliyev then authorized the raid on Sputnik’s office as an escalation under the implied pretext of an asymmetrical response.

Given the ambiguity about Aliyev’s role in Azerbaijan’s overreactions, it’s premature to conclude that he decided to jeopardize the strategic ties with Russia that he himself cultivated, though he must still take responsibility even if mid-level officials did this on their own. That’s because Baku’s official complaint to Moscow and its raid on Sputnik’s office are state actions, unlike the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg, which is a local action. He’ll thus likely have to talk to Putin sometime soon to resolve everything.

The abovementioned observation doesn’t explain why mid-level officials might have overreacted to the Yekaterinburg police raid, which can be attributed to the deep-seated resentment that some have against Russia and speculative foreign influence. Regarding the first, some Azerbaijanis (but importantly not all and seemingly not the majority) harbor such sentiments, while the second might be linked to the scenario of the US letting Armenia becoming a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate.

To elaborate, the US and France would struggle to turn Armenia into their own joint protectorate due to Georgia successfully repelling several rounds of Biden-era Color Revolution unrest, which aimed to pressure the government into opening up a “second front” against Russia and toppling it if it refused.

The military logistics required for turning Armenia into a bastion from which they could then divide-and-rule the region therefore are no longer reliable since they could only realistically run through Georgia.

Accordingly, the Trump Administration might have decided to cut their predecessor’s strategic losses by “giving” Armenia to Turkiye and Azerbaijan, which would repair the troubled ties that he inherited with both. In exchange, the US might have requested that they take a harder line towards Russia if the opportunity emerges, knowing that neither will sanction it since that would harm their own economies but hoping that a future situation would develop to serve as the pretext for escalating political tensions.

Mid-level officials wouldn’t be privy to such talks, but the aforesaid speculative request could have trickled down to them from their superiors, some of whom might have implied state approval for overreacting to any forthcoming “opportunity”. This sequence of events could bestow Aliyev with the ability to “plausibly deny” his role in events as part of a de-escalation deal with Putin. The whole purpose of this charade might be to signal to Russia that a new order is forming in the broader region.

As was earlier explained, that order could be a Turkish-led one upon Ankara and Baku subordinating Armenia as their joint protectorate, after which they’d streamline military logistics across its territory to turn the “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS) into a major force along Russia’s entire southern periphery. To be clear, the OTS isn’t controlled by the West, but its Turkish leader and increasingly equal Azerbaijani partner could still autonomously advance the West’s strategic agenda vis-à-vis Russia in that scenario.

Just like the US and France have unreliable military logistics to Armenia, so too does Russia, so it could struggle to deter an Azerbaijani(-Turkish?) invasion of its nominal but wayward CSTO ally if Baku (and Ankara?) exploits its latest unrest (such as if Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan falls). Moreover, the most optimal branch of the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) runs through Azerbaijan, which could block it if Russia takes decisive action in defense of Armenia (however limited due to the special operation).

To be clear, Russia has no intention to fight Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan’s overreaction to the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg might be a ploy to preemptively craft the perception that Russia “backed down” as a result if Moscow doesn’t take decisive action to deter Baku if regional tensions over Armenia worsen. Had it not been for that raid, then perhaps some other pretext would have been exploited or concocted, but the point is that Russia and Azerbaijan have polar opposite visions of Armenia’s geopolitical future.

That same future is pivotal for the future of the broader region as was written, but Russia has limited means for shaping the course of events due to its complex strategic interdependence with Azerbaijan vis-à-vis the NSTC and its understandable military prioritization of the special operation. The preceding constraints are self-evident, and Aliyev (and Erdogan?) might be preparing to take advantage of them, emboldened as he(/they?) might be by Russia’s perceived setback in Syria after Assad’s downfall.

Azerbaijan is aware of its irreplaceable role in turbocharging allied Turkiye’s rise as Eurasian Great Power, which is dependent on subordinating Armenia in order to then streamline the OTS’ military logistics between Asia Minor and Central Asia via the South Caucasus. If Aliyev came to believe that his country has a brighter future as part of a Turkish-led regional order instead of a Russian-led one, especially if the US signaled approval of this as speculated, then Baku’s overreaction to recent events makes more sense.

The Moscow-mediated Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire of November 2020 calls for the creation of a Russian-controlled corridor across Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which Baku calls the “Zangezur Corridor”, for connecting both parts of Azerbaijan. Pashinyan hitherto refused to implement this due to pressure from the West and the Armenian diaspora therein, but if Trump decided to “give” Armenia to Azerbaijan and Turkiye instead, then he might do it but only after squeezing Russia out of this route.

Russian control would prevent Turkiye from streamlining its military logistics to Central Asia through this corridor for the purpose of replacing Russia’s influence there with its own as part of a grand strategic powerplay that autonomously aligns with the Western agenda in the pivotal Eurasian Heartland. Azerbaijan (and Turkiye?) might therefore invade Syunik if their envisaged client Pashinyan either flip-flops on squeezing Russia out or before Russia is invited into there by a new government if he falls.

The consequences of Turkiye obtaining unhindered military access to Central Asia through either sequence of events could be disastrous for Russia since its influence there is already being challenged by Turkiye, the EU, and even the UK, which just signed a two-year military agreement with Kazakhstan. That country, with whom Russia shares the longest land border in the world, has been pivoting towards the West as was assessed here in summer 2023 and this troubling trend could easily accelerate in that event.

Reflecting on all this insight, the latest trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations might therefore be part of a Turkish-US powerplay, one which Trump could have agreed to with Erdogan and Aliyev later jumped on board but might still have his doubts. That would account for his “plausibly deniable” role in Azerbaijan’s overreaction to recent events. If taken to its conclusion, this powerplay could risk Azerbaijan becoming Turkiye’s junior partner with time, which he’s thus far sought to avoid through his multi-alignment policy.

If that’s the case, then it might not be too late for Putin to avert this scenario so long as he can convince Aliyev that Azerbaijan has a brighter future as part of a different regional order, one that would center on Azerbaijan continuing its Russo-Turkish balancing act instead of turbocharging Turkiye’s rise. The NSTC could figure prominently in this paradigm, but the problem is that Azerbaijan’s ties with Iran and India are very strained right now, so he’d have to prospectively mediate a rapprochement for this to happen.

Anyhow, the point is that it’s premature to assume that the latest trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations is the new normal or that it might even precede a seemingly inevitable crisis, though both possibilities are nonetheless credible and should be taken seriously by the Kremlin just in case. The best-case scenario is that Aliyev and Putin soon hold a call to amicably resolve the issues that have abruptly toxified their ties otherwise the worst might be yet to come and it could be disadvantageous for both.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 03:30

The Latest Trouble In Russian-Azerbaijani Relations Might Be Part Of A Turkish-US Powerplay

Zero Hedge -

The Latest Trouble In Russian-Azerbaijani Relations Might Be Part Of A Turkish-US Powerplay

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Turkiye sees an opportunity to turbocharge its rise as a Eurasian Great Power along Russia’s entire southern periphery in ways that autonomously align with American grand strategic interests...

Russian-Azerbaijani relations are in trouble as a result of two scandals. The first concerns the recent police raid against suspected ethnic Azeri criminals in Yekaterinburg, during which time two of them died in circumstances that are now being investigated. That prompted Baku to officially complain to Moscow, after which a vicious infowar campaign was launched on social media and even among some publicly financed outlets as well alleging that Russia is “Islamophobic”, “imperialist”, and “persecuting Azeris”.

This was shortly thereafter followed by a police raid on Sputnik’s office in Baku, which had been operating in a legal gray zone after the authorities moved to effectively shut it down in February, thus resulting in the detainment of several Russians. That earlier decision was suspected to be connected to Azerbaijan’s displeasure with Russia’s response to late December’s airline tragedy in the North Caucasus that was caused by a Ukrainian drone attack at the time. Readers can learn more about it here and here.

Before determining who’s responsible for the latest trouble in bilateral ties, it’s important to recall the larger context within which all of this is unfolding. Prior to late December’s incident, Russian-Azerbaijani relations were proceeding along a very positive trajectory in accordance with the strategic partnership pact that President Ilham Aliyev agreed to with Putin on the eve of the special operation in late February 2022. That built upon Russia’s role in mediating an end to the Second Karabakh War in November 2020.

More recently, Putin visited Baku last August, the significance of which was analyzed here and here. This was followed by Aliyev visiting Moscow in October in connection with the CIS Heads of State Summit. Shortly before late December’s airline tragedy, Aliyev then gave an extended interview to Rossiya Segodnya head Dmitry Kiselyov in Baku, where he elaborated on Azerbaijan’s multi-aligned foreign policy and newfound suspicions of the West’s regional intentions towards the South Caucasus.

On that topic, the Biden Administration sought to exploit Armenia’s loss in the Second Karabakh War to more radically turn it against Russia and thus transform the country into a joint French-US protectorate for dividing-and-ruling the region, which worsened relations with Azerbaijan. The Trump Administration appears to be reconsidering that, however, and might have even agreed to let Armenia become a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate instead. It’s this perception that’s driving the latest unrest in Armenia.

From Russia’s perspective, the French-US protectorate scenario could spark another regional war that might spiral out of control with unpredictable consequences for Moscow if they weaponize the revival of Armenian revanchism. Similarly, the Azeri-Turkish protectorate scenario could turbocharge Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power if it leads to an expansion of its influence (especially military) in Central Asia. The ideal scenario is therefore for Armenia to return to its traditional status as a Russian ally.

Having explained the context within which the latest trouble is unfolding, it’s now time to determine who’s responsible. Objectively speaking, the Azerbaijani authorities overreacted to the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg, which signaled to civil society that it’s acceptable (at least for now) to wage a vicious infowar campaign against Russia. Some officials with an unclear connection to Aliyev then authorized the raid on Sputnik’s office as an escalation under the implied pretext of an asymmetrical response.

Given the ambiguity about Aliyev’s role in Azerbaijan’s overreactions, it’s premature to conclude that he decided to jeopardize the strategic ties with Russia that he himself cultivated, though he must still take responsibility even if mid-level officials did this on their own. That’s because Baku’s official complaint to Moscow and its raid on Sputnik’s office are state actions, unlike the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg, which is a local action. He’ll thus likely have to talk to Putin sometime soon to resolve everything.

The abovementioned observation doesn’t explain why mid-level officials might have overreacted to the Yekaterinburg police raid, which can be attributed to the deep-seated resentment that some have against Russia and speculative foreign influence. Regarding the first, some Azerbaijanis (but importantly not all and seemingly not the majority) harbor such sentiments, while the second might be linked to the scenario of the US letting Armenia becoming a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate.

To elaborate, the US and France would struggle to turn Armenia into their own joint protectorate due to Georgia successfully repelling several rounds of Biden-era Color Revolution unrest, which aimed to pressure the government into opening up a “second front” against Russia and toppling it if it refused.

The military logistics required for turning Armenia into a bastion from which they could then divide-and-rule the region therefore are no longer reliable since they could only realistically run through Georgia.

Accordingly, the Trump Administration might have decided to cut their predecessor’s strategic losses by “giving” Armenia to Turkiye and Azerbaijan, which would repair the troubled ties that he inherited with both. In exchange, the US might have requested that they take a harder line towards Russia if the opportunity emerges, knowing that neither will sanction it since that would harm their own economies but hoping that a future situation would develop to serve as the pretext for escalating political tensions.

Mid-level officials wouldn’t be privy to such talks, but the aforesaid speculative request could have trickled down to them from their superiors, some of whom might have implied state approval for overreacting to any forthcoming “opportunity”. This sequence of events could bestow Aliyev with the ability to “plausibly deny” his role in events as part of a de-escalation deal with Putin. The whole purpose of this charade might be to signal to Russia that a new order is forming in the broader region.

As was earlier explained, that order could be a Turkish-led one upon Ankara and Baku subordinating Armenia as their joint protectorate, after which they’d streamline military logistics across its territory to turn the “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS) into a major force along Russia’s entire southern periphery. To be clear, the OTS isn’t controlled by the West, but its Turkish leader and increasingly equal Azerbaijani partner could still autonomously advance the West’s strategic agenda vis-à-vis Russia in that scenario.

Just like the US and France have unreliable military logistics to Armenia, so too does Russia, so it could struggle to deter an Azerbaijani(-Turkish?) invasion of its nominal but wayward CSTO ally if Baku (and Ankara?) exploits its latest unrest (such as if Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan falls). Moreover, the most optimal branch of the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) runs through Azerbaijan, which could block it if Russia takes decisive action in defense of Armenia (however limited due to the special operation).

To be clear, Russia has no intention to fight Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan’s overreaction to the recent police raid in Yekaterinburg might be a ploy to preemptively craft the perception that Russia “backed down” as a result if Moscow doesn’t take decisive action to deter Baku if regional tensions over Armenia worsen. Had it not been for that raid, then perhaps some other pretext would have been exploited or concocted, but the point is that Russia and Azerbaijan have polar opposite visions of Armenia’s geopolitical future.

That same future is pivotal for the future of the broader region as was written, but Russia has limited means for shaping the course of events due to its complex strategic interdependence with Azerbaijan vis-à-vis the NSTC and its understandable military prioritization of the special operation. The preceding constraints are self-evident, and Aliyev (and Erdogan?) might be preparing to take advantage of them, emboldened as he(/they?) might be by Russia’s perceived setback in Syria after Assad’s downfall.

Azerbaijan is aware of its irreplaceable role in turbocharging allied Turkiye’s rise as Eurasian Great Power, which is dependent on subordinating Armenia in order to then streamline the OTS’ military logistics between Asia Minor and Central Asia via the South Caucasus. If Aliyev came to believe that his country has a brighter future as part of a Turkish-led regional order instead of a Russian-led one, especially if the US signaled approval of this as speculated, then Baku’s overreaction to recent events makes more sense.

The Moscow-mediated Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire of November 2020 calls for the creation of a Russian-controlled corridor across Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which Baku calls the “Zangezur Corridor”, for connecting both parts of Azerbaijan. Pashinyan hitherto refused to implement this due to pressure from the West and the Armenian diaspora therein, but if Trump decided to “give” Armenia to Azerbaijan and Turkiye instead, then he might do it but only after squeezing Russia out of this route.

Russian control would prevent Turkiye from streamlining its military logistics to Central Asia through this corridor for the purpose of replacing Russia’s influence there with its own as part of a grand strategic powerplay that autonomously aligns with the Western agenda in the pivotal Eurasian Heartland. Azerbaijan (and Turkiye?) might therefore invade Syunik if their envisaged client Pashinyan either flip-flops on squeezing Russia out or before Russia is invited into there by a new government if he falls.

The consequences of Turkiye obtaining unhindered military access to Central Asia through either sequence of events could be disastrous for Russia since its influence there is already being challenged by Turkiye, the EU, and even the UK, which just signed a two-year military agreement with Kazakhstan. That country, with whom Russia shares the longest land border in the world, has been pivoting towards the West as was assessed here in summer 2023 and this troubling trend could easily accelerate in that event.

Reflecting on all this insight, the latest trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations might therefore be part of a Turkish-US powerplay, one which Trump could have agreed to with Erdogan and Aliyev later jumped on board but might still have his doubts. That would account for his “plausibly deniable” role in Azerbaijan’s overreaction to recent events. If taken to its conclusion, this powerplay could risk Azerbaijan becoming Turkiye’s junior partner with time, which he’s thus far sought to avoid through his multi-alignment policy.

If that’s the case, then it might not be too late for Putin to avert this scenario so long as he can convince Aliyev that Azerbaijan has a brighter future as part of a different regional order, one that would center on Azerbaijan continuing its Russo-Turkish balancing act instead of turbocharging Turkiye’s rise. The NSTC could figure prominently in this paradigm, but the problem is that Azerbaijan’s ties with Iran and India are very strained right now, so he’d have to prospectively mediate a rapprochement for this to happen.

Anyhow, the point is that it’s premature to assume that the latest trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations is the new normal or that it might even precede a seemingly inevitable crisis, though both possibilities are nonetheless credible and should be taken seriously by the Kremlin just in case. The best-case scenario is that Aliyev and Putin soon hold a call to amicably resolve the issues that have abruptly toxified their ties otherwise the worst might be yet to come and it could be disadvantageous for both.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 03:30

Tobacco-Free Future - Moving Forward Or Backwards?

Zero Hedge -

Tobacco-Free Future - Moving Forward Or Backwards?

In France, a new ban limiting smoking in several public outdoor places went into effect on July 1, marking a major step for the country once known as a nation of smokers.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, tobacco use is falling around the world and control measures have reached a critical mass of people, expanding public smoking bans and even a total phase-out of commercial tobacco use has been on the table in some countries. However, some of the most high-profile measures of this kind have already failed, raising the question whether a tobacco-free future is in the making, further away that it seems or even wholly unattainable.

Bhutan, the Himalayan nation, was the world’s first officially smoke-free country when it outlawed the import and sale of tobacco in 2004. Bhutan has become famous for its different approach to governance, which has been admired in the West, for example calculating gross national happiness or mandating that 60% of the country remain forested. But even the remote nation that cited Buddhist teachings as a reason for its tobacco ban has not been immune to outside influence and axed the majority of its ban in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic to stop smugglers which were spreading the disease. Since then, the country’s government has decided not to reinstate and instead focus on education and cessasion programs, as the ban did not actually lower smoking rates and instead created an environment free of warnings around the tobacco which was still available illegally.

More recently, New Zealand attempted to raise a smoke-free generation from 2027 onwards by not allowing anyone born in 2009 or later to legally purchase cigarettes once they turned 18, alongside many other anti-tobacco measures. The country’s approach was that of a more gradual phase-out rather than a sudden ban but its merits won’t be tested as a change in government prompted the law enacted in 2022 to be scrapped despite reportedly having widespread public support. A new conservative coalition government decided to change course after coming to power in 2023, reportedly at the request of the populist New Zealand First party. Tobacco revenue was consecutively tied to new tax cuts. This highlights another area of concern with tobacco bans and phase-outs: the cost of prevention and tax revenue losses in the short term, even though these are expected to be offset by lower public healthcare costs. However, the United Kingdom is currently mulling a similar ban that is yet to be enacted but enjoys government and public support as of now.

The New Zealand government meanwhile said that it remained committed to creating a smoke-free nation nevertheless. Several countries, including Portugal, Canada and Australia, have set similar goals, typically aiming to reduce the number of smokers to 5 percent or less in the next five to 15 years. The EU, for example, has set this date to 2040. One popular rule to inch closer to this goal has been to further limit smoking in public outdoor areas like restaurant and bar patios, beaches, parks, natural areas or even inner city streets. The aforementioned countries, sometimes on a state level, have introduced bans like these, as have several other nations around the world. Cities have also followed suit and a well-reported ban went into effect in Milan at the beginning of the year, outlawing smoking anywhere near other people, similar to the law in place in Costa Rica.

The World Health Organization last week released its tenth report on the global tobacco epidemic, a status update on its anti-smoking campaigns.

 Tobacco-Free Future - Moving Forward or Backwards? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The WHO concludes that more than 6 billion people, or around 75 percent of the world population, are now covered by some kind of tobacco control measure, including graphic warnings on cigarette packages, increases in taxation, advertising bans and programs that help people quit smoking. According to the organization, less than 20 percent of the world population currently smokes, down from more than 32 percent in the year 2000. 80 percent of these people are located in middle or low income countries and are more likely males as smoking continues to be the biggest cause of preventable death globally.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 02:45

Tobacco-Free Future - Moving Forward Or Backwards?

Zero Hedge -

Tobacco-Free Future - Moving Forward Or Backwards?

In France, a new ban limiting smoking in several public outdoor places went into effect on July 1, marking a major step for the country once known as a nation of smokers.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, tobacco use is falling around the world and control measures have reached a critical mass of people, expanding public smoking bans and even a total phase-out of commercial tobacco use has been on the table in some countries. However, some of the most high-profile measures of this kind have already failed, raising the question whether a tobacco-free future is in the making, further away that it seems or even wholly unattainable.

Bhutan, the Himalayan nation, was the world’s first officially smoke-free country when it outlawed the import and sale of tobacco in 2004. Bhutan has become famous for its different approach to governance, which has been admired in the West, for example calculating gross national happiness or mandating that 60% of the country remain forested. But even the remote nation that cited Buddhist teachings as a reason for its tobacco ban has not been immune to outside influence and axed the majority of its ban in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic to stop smugglers which were spreading the disease. Since then, the country’s government has decided not to reinstate and instead focus on education and cessasion programs, as the ban did not actually lower smoking rates and instead created an environment free of warnings around the tobacco which was still available illegally.

More recently, New Zealand attempted to raise a smoke-free generation from 2027 onwards by not allowing anyone born in 2009 or later to legally purchase cigarettes once they turned 18, alongside many other anti-tobacco measures. The country’s approach was that of a more gradual phase-out rather than a sudden ban but its merits won’t be tested as a change in government prompted the law enacted in 2022 to be scrapped despite reportedly having widespread public support. A new conservative coalition government decided to change course after coming to power in 2023, reportedly at the request of the populist New Zealand First party. Tobacco revenue was consecutively tied to new tax cuts. This highlights another area of concern with tobacco bans and phase-outs: the cost of prevention and tax revenue losses in the short term, even though these are expected to be offset by lower public healthcare costs. However, the United Kingdom is currently mulling a similar ban that is yet to be enacted but enjoys government and public support as of now.

The New Zealand government meanwhile said that it remained committed to creating a smoke-free nation nevertheless. Several countries, including Portugal, Canada and Australia, have set similar goals, typically aiming to reduce the number of smokers to 5 percent or less in the next five to 15 years. The EU, for example, has set this date to 2040. One popular rule to inch closer to this goal has been to further limit smoking in public outdoor areas like restaurant and bar patios, beaches, parks, natural areas or even inner city streets. The aforementioned countries, sometimes on a state level, have introduced bans like these, as have several other nations around the world. Cities have also followed suit and a well-reported ban went into effect in Milan at the beginning of the year, outlawing smoking anywhere near other people, similar to the law in place in Costa Rica.

The World Health Organization last week released its tenth report on the global tobacco epidemic, a status update on its anti-smoking campaigns.

 Tobacco-Free Future - Moving Forward or Backwards? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The WHO concludes that more than 6 billion people, or around 75 percent of the world population, are now covered by some kind of tobacco control measure, including graphic warnings on cigarette packages, increases in taxation, advertising bans and programs that help people quit smoking. According to the organization, less than 20 percent of the world population currently smokes, down from more than 32 percent in the year 2000. 80 percent of these people are located in middle or low income countries and are more likely males as smoking continues to be the biggest cause of preventable death globally.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/03/2025 - 02:45

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