Individual Economists

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Zero Hedge -

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Recent announcements of large layoffs at a few prominent companies have raised concerns that the labor market could be weakening further, and today's new weekly ADP employment report confirms that fear.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023...

ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its long-running monthly report.

They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.

So far, Goldman does not find clear evidence that most of the increase in these layoff measures is directly motivated by AI, although tech industries saw meaningful increases in layoffs in October across both measures.

At the same time, initial jobless claims - which are less noisy and more representative but could lag layoff announcements and WARN notices - remain low.

Goldman complements these data with a new tool to track layoff discussions among publicly listed companies based on earnings call transcripts. 

Their tool suggests that layoff-focused discussions have increased recently, particularly in the ongoing 2025Q3 earnings calls. We find that layoff discussions increase after companies discuss AI in earnings calls at least a few times, although this pattern has only recently started to emerge for non-tech companies. 

We combine Challenger announcements, WARN notices, initial claims, and earnings call mentions into a layoff tracker.

Goldman's tracker has increased in October and is now higher than before the pandemic.

Our quantile regressions based on the level of our layoff tracker, the level of our job growth tracker net of the breakeven pace of job growth, and changes in our slack tracker indicate that the risk of labor market deterioration has increased recently, with the probability of a 0.5pp or higher increase in the unemployment rate over the next six months at 20-25% (vs. 10% six months ago).

Finally, sentiment among US small businesses eased in October to a six-month low on a deterioration in earnings and less optimism about the economy.

The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index declined 0.6 point to 98.2, according to figures released Tuesday. Five of the 10 components that make up the gauge decreased while four improved.

The net share of owners reporting stronger earnings in the last three months fell 9 percentage points, the most since the pandemic and restrained by weaker sales and higher materials costs.

While labor quality continued to rank as the top problem for small businesses, owners were relatively sanguine about hiring challenges. Just 32% reported they were unable to fill job openings, matching the lowest since the end of 2020. The share reporting few or no qualified applicants for vacancies was one of the smallest in that time frame.

However, there was a small decrease in hiring plans in the next three months, marking the first decline since May.

Somewhat surprisingly, given those numbers, new data shows a collapse in immigrant work applications...

So, is the labor market's difficulty a supply issue after all?

The result of all this is a rise in rate-cut odds and a drop in the dollar...

Cash bonds are closed for Veterans Day but futs signal a drop of about 4bps for the 10Y yield...

Stocks are largely unmoved.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:42

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Zero Hedge -

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Recent announcements of large layoffs at a few prominent companies have raised concerns that the labor market could be weakening further, and today's new weekly ADP employment report confirms that fear.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023...

ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its long-running monthly report.

They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.

So far, Goldman does not find clear evidence that most of the increase in these layoff measures is directly motivated by AI, although tech industries saw meaningful increases in layoffs in October across both measures.

At the same time, initial jobless claims - which are less noisy and more representative but could lag layoff announcements and WARN notices - remain low.

Goldman complements these data with a new tool to track layoff discussions among publicly listed companies based on earnings call transcripts. 

Their tool suggests that layoff-focused discussions have increased recently, particularly in the ongoing 2025Q3 earnings calls. We find that layoff discussions increase after companies discuss AI in earnings calls at least a few times, although this pattern has only recently started to emerge for non-tech companies. 

We combine Challenger announcements, WARN notices, initial claims, and earnings call mentions into a layoff tracker.

Goldman's tracker has increased in October and is now higher than before the pandemic.

Our quantile regressions based on the level of our layoff tracker, the level of our job growth tracker net of the breakeven pace of job growth, and changes in our slack tracker indicate that the risk of labor market deterioration has increased recently, with the probability of a 0.5pp or higher increase in the unemployment rate over the next six months at 20-25% (vs. 10% six months ago).

Finally, sentiment among US small businesses eased in October to a six-month low on a deterioration in earnings and less optimism about the economy.

The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index declined 0.6 point to 98.2, according to figures released Tuesday. Five of the 10 components that make up the gauge decreased while four improved.

The net share of owners reporting stronger earnings in the last three months fell 9 percentage points, the most since the pandemic and restrained by weaker sales and higher materials costs.

While labor quality continued to rank as the top problem for small businesses, owners were relatively sanguine about hiring challenges. Just 32% reported they were unable to fill job openings, matching the lowest since the end of 2020. The share reporting few or no qualified applicants for vacancies was one of the smallest in that time frame.

However, there was a small decrease in hiring plans in the next three months, marking the first decline since May.

Somewhat surprisingly, given those numbers, new data shows a collapse in immigrant work applications...

So, is the labor market's difficulty a supply issue after all?

The result of all this is a rise in rate-cut odds and a drop in the dollar...

Cash bonds are closed for Veterans Day but futs signal a drop of about 4bps for the 10Y yield...

Stocks are largely unmoved.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:42

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

Zero Hedge -

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

The lead up to a Turning Point USA event on Monday night at UC Berkeley was filled with violence and mayhem, as aggressive protesters banged against barriers, set off a smoke grenade, and screamed at attendees waiting in line as law enforcement worked to keep things from spiraling into uncontrolled chaos.

The event, featuring Christian apologist Frank Turek and conservative actor Rob Schneider, was able to take place despite the raucous Antifa-led protest, which included a fight that turned bloody.

“Aerial footage captured a violent confrontation in which a person dressed in dark clothing pummeled someone wearing a red T-shirt on the sidewalk outside the event. Dozens of people remained in line as tensions flared, creating what [was] described as a rowdy scene,” Fox News reported.

Savanah Hernandez, a TPUSA contributor, posted a series of videos on X depicting the chaos.

“UC Berkeley is currently a war zone and ANTIFA has tried to rush the barriers into tonight’s TPUSA event multiple times. The crowd is getting more and more rowdy,” she posted Monday evening.

Here are the two main agitators who continued to try to break down the event barriers tonight. One is covered in trans flag patches reading ‘fags against fascism’ and the other is an Asian protester who kept his face covered throughout the night,” she added.

Hernandez also noted protesters tried to storm the barriers, posting videos showing cops seeking to push back aggressive demonstrators.

“Protesters are trying to break through the barriers set up outside of the TPUSA event at UC Berkeley. A smoke grenade was lit off by an ANTIFA protester resulting in TPUSA attendees being rushed inside. Police are struggle to contain the protest,” she posted on X.

The event kicked off with TPUSA contributor Jobob Taeleifi, who congratulated the audience for making it into the auditorium.

“Despite all the craziness, despite all the liberal policies, we believe the Bay Area can be saved,” he said. “We need more spaces of courage — not more safe spaces — and all you showed great courage showing up here tonight.”

Schneider posted on X: “Thank YOU, Antifa for welcoming us tonight at UC Berkeley. We Look forward to our thoughtful, teargas free discussion and debate.”

During his speech, the actor decried UC Berkeley administrators, saying they set up stringent roadblocks that kept people from attending the event: “Shame on the assholes at this university for making it so difficult to get in … shame on you.”

According to a post by TPUSA, attendees were threatened by Antifa and called Nazis and fascists, and Charlie Kirk’s death was celebrated.

Protests began prior to the event, according to Fox News: “Prior to the protest, four students were arrested overnight for vandalism related to the event. Flyers opposing Turning Point USA’s visit were also posted around campus leading up to the tour stop.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:25

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

Zero Hedge -

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

The lead up to a Turning Point USA event on Monday night at UC Berkeley was filled with violence and mayhem, as aggressive protesters banged against barriers, set off a smoke grenade, and screamed at attendees waiting in line as law enforcement worked to keep things from spiraling into uncontrolled chaos.

The event, featuring Christian apologist Frank Turek and conservative actor Rob Schneider, was able to take place despite the raucous Antifa-led protest, which included a fight that turned bloody.

“Aerial footage captured a violent confrontation in which a person dressed in dark clothing pummeled someone wearing a red T-shirt on the sidewalk outside the event. Dozens of people remained in line as tensions flared, creating what [was] described as a rowdy scene,” Fox News reported.

Savanah Hernandez, a TPUSA contributor, posted a series of videos on X depicting the chaos.

“UC Berkeley is currently a war zone and ANTIFA has tried to rush the barriers into tonight’s TPUSA event multiple times. The crowd is getting more and more rowdy,” she posted Monday evening.

Here are the two main agitators who continued to try to break down the event barriers tonight. One is covered in trans flag patches reading ‘fags against fascism’ and the other is an Asian protester who kept his face covered throughout the night,” she added.

Hernandez also noted protesters tried to storm the barriers, posting videos showing cops seeking to push back aggressive demonstrators.

“Protesters are trying to break through the barriers set up outside of the TPUSA event at UC Berkeley. A smoke grenade was lit off by an ANTIFA protester resulting in TPUSA attendees being rushed inside. Police are struggle to contain the protest,” she posted on X.

The event kicked off with TPUSA contributor Jobob Taeleifi, who congratulated the audience for making it into the auditorium.

“Despite all the craziness, despite all the liberal policies, we believe the Bay Area can be saved,” he said. “We need more spaces of courage — not more safe spaces — and all you showed great courage showing up here tonight.”

Schneider posted on X: “Thank YOU, Antifa for welcoming us tonight at UC Berkeley. We Look forward to our thoughtful, teargas free discussion and debate.”

During his speech, the actor decried UC Berkeley administrators, saying they set up stringent roadblocks that kept people from attending the event: “Shame on the assholes at this university for making it so difficult to get in … shame on you.”

According to a post by TPUSA, attendees were threatened by Antifa and called Nazis and fascists, and Charlie Kirk’s death was celebrated.

Protests began prior to the event, according to Fox News: “Prior to the protest, four students were arrested overnight for vandalism related to the event. Flyers opposing Turning Point USA’s visit were also posted around campus leading up to the tour stop.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:25

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:
Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

Closed Existing Home SalesIn October, sales in these early reporting markets were up 0.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several more early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!
There is much more in the article.

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

Zero Hedge -

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

In another warning sign for the AI bubble, one we've been tracking closely, from the accelerating AI-linked debt binge and widening Oracle CDS spreads to repeated cautions from BofA's Michael Hartnett and others - yet another red flag emerged Tuesday morning

Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group cashed out its $5.83 billion stake in Nvidia in October and is now raising capital for new AI investments across data centers, robotics, and chip manufacturing. The sale underscores Son's core strategy - buy low, sell high - while positioning SoftBank as a major funder across the global AI ecosystem.

CFO Yoshimitsu Goto told reporters earlier that the sale of its Nvidia stake was part of SoftBank's cycle of "divesting and reinvesting," describing it as the company's "fate" to continually reallocate capital. 

"Our investment in OpenAI is significant, so we plan to use some existing assets to help fund it," Goto said. He declined to comment on whether the timing of the sale had any significance.  

"I can't say if we're in an AI bubble or not," Goto continued, adding that the sale is for "capital can be utilized for our financing." 

Despite our concerns about an AI bubble, outlined in four must-read reports here:

... SoftBank's timing of the sale was very strategic: the Japanese conglomerate had exited Nvidia once before in 2019 but began rebuilding its position in 2020, about two years before the advent of ChatGPT sparked the AI investment boom. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kirk Boodry noted that SoftBank is on track to report its highest annual profit since 2020. "The sale of $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares highlights the company's access to liquidity as it continues its AI investment program." 

Increased liquidity access allows Son to pursue broader investment plans, including the "Stargate" data center network and a $1 trillion AI manufacturing hub in Arizona.

SoftBank has also lined up $20 billion in new loans backed by Arm Holdings and bridge loans to fund OpenAI and Ampere deals.

As a reminder, SoftBank bought a 2% stake in Intel for $2 billion to align with the Trump administration's semiconductor expansion efforts. Goto reminded investors and reporters earlier that the current industry view is healthy enthusiasm and that greater risk lies in underinvesting. 

Shares of SoftBank in Tokyo have tripled this year, peaking at 27,695 yen. 

Goldman analyst Francois Theis reminded clients of SoftBank's 11% stake in Sam Altman's OpenAI, along with its publicly listed holdings and pipeline of upcoming listings.

Softbank has traded as an OpenAI proxy over the summer (similarly to how it traded pre BABA listing) with a discount to NAV sharply shrinking (-14% using the company's assumption post close marking to market their Open AI stake at latest round of valuations at $500B vs the $260B they participated in at earlier this year – model available on request). Post its recapitalisation, Softbank via its SVF2 has now a 11% stake in OpenAI Group PBC ($34.7B investment). They have completed their first tranche and set to proceed with the second and large tranche ($22.5B in Dec. this year)

Impact on listed investments

Pipeline for listing (filed)

Besides selling Nvidia, SoftBank also sold $9.17 billion worth of T-Mobile shares between June and September. Its Vision Fund is also preparing to list more Asian portfolio companies. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:05

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

Zero Hedge -

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

In another warning sign for the AI bubble, one we've been tracking closely, from the accelerating AI-linked debt binge and widening Oracle CDS spreads to repeated cautions from BofA's Michael Hartnett and others - yet another red flag emerged Tuesday morning

Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group cashed out its $5.83 billion stake in Nvidia in October and is now raising capital for new AI investments across data centers, robotics, and chip manufacturing. The sale underscores Son's core strategy - buy low, sell high - while positioning SoftBank as a major funder across the global AI ecosystem.

CFO Yoshimitsu Goto told reporters earlier that the sale of its Nvidia stake was part of SoftBank's cycle of "divesting and reinvesting," describing it as the company's "fate" to continually reallocate capital. 

"Our investment in OpenAI is significant, so we plan to use some existing assets to help fund it," Goto said. He declined to comment on whether the timing of the sale had any significance.  

"I can't say if we're in an AI bubble or not," Goto continued, adding that the sale is for "capital can be utilized for our financing." 

Despite our concerns about an AI bubble, outlined in four must-read reports here:

... SoftBank's timing of the sale was very strategic: the Japanese conglomerate had exited Nvidia once before in 2019 but began rebuilding its position in 2020, about two years before the advent of ChatGPT sparked the AI investment boom. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kirk Boodry noted that SoftBank is on track to report its highest annual profit since 2020. "The sale of $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares highlights the company's access to liquidity as it continues its AI investment program." 

Increased liquidity access allows Son to pursue broader investment plans, including the "Stargate" data center network and a $1 trillion AI manufacturing hub in Arizona.

SoftBank has also lined up $20 billion in new loans backed by Arm Holdings and bridge loans to fund OpenAI and Ampere deals.

As a reminder, SoftBank bought a 2% stake in Intel for $2 billion to align with the Trump administration's semiconductor expansion efforts. Goto reminded investors and reporters earlier that the current industry view is healthy enthusiasm and that greater risk lies in underinvesting. 

Shares of SoftBank in Tokyo have tripled this year, peaking at 27,695 yen. 

Goldman analyst Francois Theis reminded clients of SoftBank's 11% stake in Sam Altman's OpenAI, along with its publicly listed holdings and pipeline of upcoming listings.

Softbank has traded as an OpenAI proxy over the summer (similarly to how it traded pre BABA listing) with a discount to NAV sharply shrinking (-14% using the company's assumption post close marking to market their Open AI stake at latest round of valuations at $500B vs the $260B they participated in at earlier this year – model available on request). Post its recapitalisation, Softbank via its SVF2 has now a 11% stake in OpenAI Group PBC ($34.7B investment). They have completed their first tranche and set to proceed with the second and large tranche ($22.5B in Dec. this year)

Impact on listed investments

Pipeline for listing (filed)

Besides selling Nvidia, SoftBank also sold $9.17 billion worth of T-Mobile shares between June and September. Its Vision Fund is also preparing to list more Asian portfolio companies. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:05

U.S. Aluminum Prices Surge To Record Highs As Tariffs Squeeze Supply

Zero Hedge -

U.S. Aluminum Prices Surge To Record Highs As Tariffs Squeeze Supply

Aluminum prices in the U.S. climbed to new record highs on Monday as domestic inventories tightened sharply, driven by the Trump administration’s steel and aluminum tariffs designed to bolster and revitalize America’s industrial base.

According to Bloomberg, the all-in U.S. aluminum price, combining the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark and the U.S. Midwest delivery premium, hit a record high of $4,816 per ton, nearly double the level from the December 2023 lows.

The U.S. remains heavily dependent on foreign aluminum imports, lacking any robust domestic production capacity to satisfy domestic demand. Canada, its largest supplier, has seen shipments fall sharply since President Trump imposed aluminum tariffs in March and later doubled them to 50% in June.

From April to July, U.S. aluminum imports averaged 64,000 tons per month below the 2024 baseline, partially offset by an 18,000-ton increase in scrap imports, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Amy Gower.

Gower noted that the U.S. aluminum inventory has been shrinking by about 46,000 tons per month due to tariff uncertainty, particularly around the U.S.-Canada trade spat.

“However, the destocking likely cannot continue indefinitely, and the recent rise in the Midwest premium suggests that some buying is returning,” she said.

“The steel and aluminum tariffs shut down avenues for circumvention — supporting the continued revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries,” Jeffrey Kessler, the Commerce Department’s under secretary for industry and security, wrote in a statement shortly after the Trump administration unveiled 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 additional product types over the summer.

Meanwhile, aluminum moved higher by .3% to $2,878 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, extending gains after reaching a three-year high last week.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, open interest in aluminum contracts hit a new record of 745,000 lots. Futures are at their highest since last November, driven by supply constraints and elevated demand.

BofA Securities analyst Matty Zhao noted that Chinese aluminum shares are undervalued, as construction of data centers and artificial-intelligence power equipment has fueled demand for the industrial metal.

“We have seen some long-term funds diverted from Chinese stocks to aluminum futures,” Shuohe Asset Management Co. Domestic analyst Gao Yin said, adding that futures will likely move higher.

Rounding back to the U.S., one can only imagine that rising industrial metal prices will add more inflationary cost-push pressures. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 07:45

U.S. Aluminum Prices Surge To Record Highs As Tariffs Squeeze Supply

Zero Hedge -

U.S. Aluminum Prices Surge To Record Highs As Tariffs Squeeze Supply

Aluminum prices in the U.S. climbed to new record highs on Monday as domestic inventories tightened sharply, driven by the Trump administration’s steel and aluminum tariffs designed to bolster and revitalize America’s industrial base.

According to Bloomberg, the all-in U.S. aluminum price, combining the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark and the U.S. Midwest delivery premium, hit a record high of $4,816 per ton, nearly double the level from the December 2023 lows.

The U.S. remains heavily dependent on foreign aluminum imports, lacking any robust domestic production capacity to satisfy domestic demand. Canada, its largest supplier, has seen shipments fall sharply since President Trump imposed aluminum tariffs in March and later doubled them to 50% in June.

From April to July, U.S. aluminum imports averaged 64,000 tons per month below the 2024 baseline, partially offset by an 18,000-ton increase in scrap imports, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Amy Gower.

Gower noted that the U.S. aluminum inventory has been shrinking by about 46,000 tons per month due to tariff uncertainty, particularly around the U.S.-Canada trade spat.

“However, the destocking likely cannot continue indefinitely, and the recent rise in the Midwest premium suggests that some buying is returning,” she said.

“The steel and aluminum tariffs shut down avenues for circumvention — supporting the continued revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries,” Jeffrey Kessler, the Commerce Department’s under secretary for industry and security, wrote in a statement shortly after the Trump administration unveiled 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 additional product types over the summer.

Meanwhile, aluminum moved higher by .3% to $2,878 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, extending gains after reaching a three-year high last week.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, open interest in aluminum contracts hit a new record of 745,000 lots. Futures are at their highest since last November, driven by supply constraints and elevated demand.

BofA Securities analyst Matty Zhao noted that Chinese aluminum shares are undervalued, as construction of data centers and artificial-intelligence power equipment has fueled demand for the industrial metal.

“We have seen some long-term funds diverted from Chinese stocks to aluminum futures,” Shuohe Asset Management Co. Domestic analyst Gao Yin said, adding that futures will likely move higher.

Rounding back to the U.S., one can only imagine that rising industrial metal prices will add more inflationary cost-push pressures. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 07:45

Why Tether Is Acting More Like A Central Bank Than A Stablecoin

Zero Hedge -

Why Tether Is Acting More Like A Central Bank Than A Stablecoin

Authored by Bradley Peak via CoinTelegraph.com,

  • Tether operates a Treasury- and repo-heavy balance sheet, holding $181.2 billion in reserves against $174.5 billion in liabilities, leaving $6.8 billion in excess.

  • High interest rates have turned those reserves into profit, generating more than $10 billion in interest income so far in 2025, which is uncommon for a typical crypto issuer.

  • It exercises policy-style levers by freezing sanctioned wallets, shifting supported blockchains and allocating up to 15% of profits to Bitcoin.

  • The central bank comparison has limits. Tether has no public mandate or backstop, relies on attestations instead of full audits and depends on private counterparties.

Tether no longer looks like a simple stablecoin company. It runs a balance sheet packed with short-term US Treasurys, reverse repos, gold and even Bitcoin. It mints and redeems dollars at scale and can freeze addresses at the request of law enforcement.

Its latest attestation shows $181.2 billion in reserves against $174.5 billion in liabilities, leaving $6.8 billion in excess and more than $174 billion in USDt in circulation. With interest rates high, that Treasury-heavy portfolio has generated over $10 billion in profit so far in 2025, a figure more typical of a financial institution than a crypto startup.

That is why both critics and supporters say Tether is behaving like a private dollar-linked central bank for parts of the crypto economy, though without a sovereign mandate or safety net.

Acting like a central bank: What does that mean?

In practice, Tether does four things that resemble central bank behavior.

First, it issues and redeems money on demand. Verified customers mint new USDT by wiring in fiat and redeem it by sending USDT back for dollars. This primary market expands or contracts supply, while secondary-market trading occurs on exchanges. The actual balance sheet changes take place within that mint and redeem pipeline.

Second, it manages reserves like a fixed-income desk, parking most assets in short-duration US Treasurys and repos, with some gold and Bitcoin. A Treasury-heavy portfolio preserves liquidity and adds steady demand for T-bills, which bond desks now actively track when identifying major buyers of US debt.

Third, it earns what resembles seigniorage in a high-rate environment. Users hold a non-interest-bearing token, while Tether collects interest on T-bills, resulting in more than $10 billion in profit and $6.8 billion in excess reserves as of the third quarter of 2025. That income stream is why the “private central bank” comparison resonates.

Finally, it uses policy-style tools such as contract functions that can freeze addresses at the request of law enforcement or sanctions authorities. It also has the ability to add or remove blockchains, for example, winding down Omni, BCH-SLP, Kusama, EOS and Algorand, to manage operational risk.

While this is not sovereign monetary policy, it still represents active intervention in a dollar-like asset used by hundreds of millions of people.

Did you know? Tether was originally launched as Realcoin in July 2014 and rebranded to Tether in November of the same year. It remains one of the oldest stablecoins still in active use today.

Expanding on policy levers that resemble central bank tools

Tether now intervenes in its own dollar system in ways that resemble policy tools.

On the compliance side, it can freeze addresses linked to sanctions or law enforcement actions. It first introduced a proactive wallet-freezing policy in December 2023 and has since used it in specific cases, such as wallets tied to the sanctioned Russian exchange Garantex. These are issuer-level interventions that immediately affect who can move dollar liquidity onchain.

On the market operations side, Tether’s reserves are managed like a short-term fixed-income portfolio, heavily weighted toward US Treasurys and reverse repos. This structure allows mint and redemption activity to align with highly liquid assets that earn interest while maintaining flexibility.

In Tether’s latest attestation, that mix helped generate multibillion-dollar profits and a sizable excess reserves buffer. These mechanics resemble open-market-style management, even though Tether remains a private issuer rather than a central bank.

Tether also defines its own operating perimeter. It has added and retired blockchains to focus activity where usage and infrastructure are strongest, ceasing minting and later support on legacy networks such as Omni, BCH-SLP, Kusama, EOS and Algorand, while continuing redemptions during a transition period.

Separately, it diversifies reserves by allocating up to 15% of realized operating profits to Bitcoin, a policy introduced in 2023 that represents another issuer-level decision with system-wide effects.

From stablecoin issuer to infrastructure player

Over the past 18 months, Tether has transformed from a single-token company into a broader financial infrastructure group.

In April 2024, it reorganized into four operating divisions: Tether Finance, Tether Data, Tether Power and Tether Edu. These divisions manage Tether’s digital asset services, data and AI ventures (such as Holepunch and Northern Data), energy initiatives and educational programs. The restructuring formalized a strategy that extends well beyond issuing USDT.

On the Power side, Tether has committed capital and expertise to Volcano Energy in El Salvador, a 241-megawatt wind and solar park designed to power one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mining operations. The project directly supports payment and settlement uptime. The company has also ended support for several legacy blockchains to concentrate liquidity where tooling and demand are strongest, a network operations decision with ecosystem-wide effects.

To address the US market directly, Tether announced USAT (USAT), a planned US-regulated dollar token to be issued by Anchorage Digital Bank under domestic rules, alongside its existing offshore USDT. If launched as described, USAT would provide Tether with a compliant onshore platform, while USDT would continue to serve global markets.

Why the analogy breaks

Importantly, Tether is not a sovereign monetary authority.

It does not set interest rates, act as a lender of last resort or operate under a public mandate. Its transparency still relies on quarterly attestations rather than a full financial audit, even though the company says it has been in discussions with a Big Four firm about auditing its reserves.

That gap between attestation and audit is one reason critics reject the “central bank” label.

There are also balance sheet concerns. Tether has at times maintained a secured loan portfolio after previously stating it would reduce such exposure. This asset category attracts scrutiny because terms and counterparties matter. More broadly, the company depends on private banking, custodial and repo counterparties rather than a sovereign backstop, meaning confidence and market infrastructure remain outside its direct control.

Finally, some of Tether’s most policy-like actions are primarily compliance measures, such as proactively freezing addresses listed by sanctions authorities.

Did you know? In December 2023, Tether said it had assisted more than 140 law enforcement agencies across 45 jurisdictions in freezing $835 million connected to scams and illicit activities.

Where Tether fits in the bigger picture

Ultimately, Tether looks less like a typical stablecoin issuer and more like a private, dollar-denominated central bank for crypto. It expands and contracts supply through large-scale minting and redemptions, holds short-dated Treasurys and repos, earns multibillion-dollar interest income and can step in with compliance actions when required.

However, the analogy only goes so far. There is no public mandate or backstop, transparency still depends on attestations, and its policy-like actions are largely focused on compliance rather than macro management.

Keep an eye on reserve composition, profits, redemptions, audit progress and, in the US, how the USAT plan with Anchorage unfolds because that is where the story will either continue to resemble central banking or begin to diverge.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 07:20

Why Tether Is Acting More Like A Central Bank Than A Stablecoin

Zero Hedge -

Why Tether Is Acting More Like A Central Bank Than A Stablecoin

Authored by Bradley Peak via CoinTelegraph.com,

  • Tether operates a Treasury- and repo-heavy balance sheet, holding $181.2 billion in reserves against $174.5 billion in liabilities, leaving $6.8 billion in excess.

  • High interest rates have turned those reserves into profit, generating more than $10 billion in interest income so far in 2025, which is uncommon for a typical crypto issuer.

  • It exercises policy-style levers by freezing sanctioned wallets, shifting supported blockchains and allocating up to 15% of profits to Bitcoin.

  • The central bank comparison has limits. Tether has no public mandate or backstop, relies on attestations instead of full audits and depends on private counterparties.

Tether no longer looks like a simple stablecoin company. It runs a balance sheet packed with short-term US Treasurys, reverse repos, gold and even Bitcoin. It mints and redeems dollars at scale and can freeze addresses at the request of law enforcement.

Its latest attestation shows $181.2 billion in reserves against $174.5 billion in liabilities, leaving $6.8 billion in excess and more than $174 billion in USDt in circulation. With interest rates high, that Treasury-heavy portfolio has generated over $10 billion in profit so far in 2025, a figure more typical of a financial institution than a crypto startup.

That is why both critics and supporters say Tether is behaving like a private dollar-linked central bank for parts of the crypto economy, though without a sovereign mandate or safety net.

Acting like a central bank: What does that mean?

In practice, Tether does four things that resemble central bank behavior.

First, it issues and redeems money on demand. Verified customers mint new USDT by wiring in fiat and redeem it by sending USDT back for dollars. This primary market expands or contracts supply, while secondary-market trading occurs on exchanges. The actual balance sheet changes take place within that mint and redeem pipeline.

Second, it manages reserves like a fixed-income desk, parking most assets in short-duration US Treasurys and repos, with some gold and Bitcoin. A Treasury-heavy portfolio preserves liquidity and adds steady demand for T-bills, which bond desks now actively track when identifying major buyers of US debt.

Third, it earns what resembles seigniorage in a high-rate environment. Users hold a non-interest-bearing token, while Tether collects interest on T-bills, resulting in more than $10 billion in profit and $6.8 billion in excess reserves as of the third quarter of 2025. That income stream is why the “private central bank” comparison resonates.

Finally, it uses policy-style tools such as contract functions that can freeze addresses at the request of law enforcement or sanctions authorities. It also has the ability to add or remove blockchains, for example, winding down Omni, BCH-SLP, Kusama, EOS and Algorand, to manage operational risk.

While this is not sovereign monetary policy, it still represents active intervention in a dollar-like asset used by hundreds of millions of people.

Did you know? Tether was originally launched as Realcoin in July 2014 and rebranded to Tether in November of the same year. It remains one of the oldest stablecoins still in active use today.

Expanding on policy levers that resemble central bank tools

Tether now intervenes in its own dollar system in ways that resemble policy tools.

On the compliance side, it can freeze addresses linked to sanctions or law enforcement actions. It first introduced a proactive wallet-freezing policy in December 2023 and has since used it in specific cases, such as wallets tied to the sanctioned Russian exchange Garantex. These are issuer-level interventions that immediately affect who can move dollar liquidity onchain.

On the market operations side, Tether’s reserves are managed like a short-term fixed-income portfolio, heavily weighted toward US Treasurys and reverse repos. This structure allows mint and redemption activity to align with highly liquid assets that earn interest while maintaining flexibility.

In Tether’s latest attestation, that mix helped generate multibillion-dollar profits and a sizable excess reserves buffer. These mechanics resemble open-market-style management, even though Tether remains a private issuer rather than a central bank.

Tether also defines its own operating perimeter. It has added and retired blockchains to focus activity where usage and infrastructure are strongest, ceasing minting and later support on legacy networks such as Omni, BCH-SLP, Kusama, EOS and Algorand, while continuing redemptions during a transition period.

Separately, it diversifies reserves by allocating up to 15% of realized operating profits to Bitcoin, a policy introduced in 2023 that represents another issuer-level decision with system-wide effects.

From stablecoin issuer to infrastructure player

Over the past 18 months, Tether has transformed from a single-token company into a broader financial infrastructure group.

In April 2024, it reorganized into four operating divisions: Tether Finance, Tether Data, Tether Power and Tether Edu. These divisions manage Tether’s digital asset services, data and AI ventures (such as Holepunch and Northern Data), energy initiatives and educational programs. The restructuring formalized a strategy that extends well beyond issuing USDT.

On the Power side, Tether has committed capital and expertise to Volcano Energy in El Salvador, a 241-megawatt wind and solar park designed to power one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mining operations. The project directly supports payment and settlement uptime. The company has also ended support for several legacy blockchains to concentrate liquidity where tooling and demand are strongest, a network operations decision with ecosystem-wide effects.

To address the US market directly, Tether announced USAT (USAT), a planned US-regulated dollar token to be issued by Anchorage Digital Bank under domestic rules, alongside its existing offshore USDT. If launched as described, USAT would provide Tether with a compliant onshore platform, while USDT would continue to serve global markets.

Why the analogy breaks

Importantly, Tether is not a sovereign monetary authority.

It does not set interest rates, act as a lender of last resort or operate under a public mandate. Its transparency still relies on quarterly attestations rather than a full financial audit, even though the company says it has been in discussions with a Big Four firm about auditing its reserves.

That gap between attestation and audit is one reason critics reject the “central bank” label.

There are also balance sheet concerns. Tether has at times maintained a secured loan portfolio after previously stating it would reduce such exposure. This asset category attracts scrutiny because terms and counterparties matter. More broadly, the company depends on private banking, custodial and repo counterparties rather than a sovereign backstop, meaning confidence and market infrastructure remain outside its direct control.

Finally, some of Tether’s most policy-like actions are primarily compliance measures, such as proactively freezing addresses listed by sanctions authorities.

Did you know? In December 2023, Tether said it had assisted more than 140 law enforcement agencies across 45 jurisdictions in freezing $835 million connected to scams and illicit activities.

Where Tether fits in the bigger picture

Ultimately, Tether looks less like a typical stablecoin issuer and more like a private, dollar-denominated central bank for crypto. It expands and contracts supply through large-scale minting and redemptions, holds short-dated Treasurys and repos, earns multibillion-dollar interest income and can step in with compliance actions when required.

However, the analogy only goes so far. There is no public mandate or backstop, transparency still depends on attestations, and its policy-like actions are largely focused on compliance rather than macro management.

Keep an eye on reserve composition, profits, redemptions, audit progress and, in the US, how the USAT plan with Anchorage unfolds because that is where the story will either continue to resemble central banking or begin to diverge.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 07:20

Infighting Boils Over After Handful Of Democrats Vote To Reopen Government

Zero Hedge -

Infighting Boils Over After Handful Of Democrats Vote To Reopen Government

How quickly the tone of the Democratic Party has changed in the past week.  Only a few days ago they were boasting about a "blue wave" after winning a small number of elections that they were guaranteed to win regardless.  Some even cited the ongoing government shutdown as a catalyst for their victories in NYC, New Jersey and Virginia.  This might have emboldened a number of leftists to carry the shutdown further.

The Democrat strategy has been rather rudimentary:  Create chaos, foment instability and mob violence, demand Republicans cave to their demands, rinse, repeat.  It has worked many times in the past, so why wouldn't it work now.  Except, Republicans didn't fold this time. 

Ten Senate Dems have realized the folly of their party's methodology and have decided to work with conservatives to reopen the federal government with, essentially, the same agreement that Republicans put on the table at the very beginning of the shutdown fight. 

A clean bill with funding through September 2026.  Federal workers fired during the shutdown will be reinstated.  Retroactive pay for furloughed workers.  No extension of ACA tax credits until a "possible" floor vote in December.

The vote in the Senate has sparked an angry fervor within the Democratic Party with many members realizing that they walked away empty handed.  They thought (incorrectly) that they had Donald Trump at their mercy with their election wins, suggesting that Trump would be forced to capitulate before the Thanksgiving holiday.  Other Democrats disagreed and set out to strike a deal.

Oddly, shutdown Democrats argue that constituents angry over the lack of a standoff victory should "blame Trump" and not party leaders for the embarrassing outcome.  Dem leaders blame Trump for their failures even when Trump isn't around to cause them to fail.

Party members are calling for a changing of the guard in leadership, with some demanding that Chuck Schumer step down as Senate minority leader.  Leftists are raging across social media after the ten breakaway senators agreed to a deal.  Party members admit that the far-left progressive (woke) wing is running the Democrats at this time; one does not simply ignore the leftist hive mind and act individually.  

Bernie Sanders described the event as "a very bad night" and said the promised December ACA vote was a "meaningless gesture." He claimed that abandoning demands made a "horrific situation even worse."

Gavin Newsom called the deal a "Capitulation and betrayal of working Americans", stating that "The American people need more from their leaders."

Numerous progressive groups called for Chuck Schumer's resignation.

It's true that Republicans got what they wanted, but Democrats are acting like this is a bad thing. 

Cuts to ACA for illegal migrants (asylum seekers and non-citizens) start in 2026, which was what the fight was about all along.  The point?  Loss of government subsidies adds pressure for illegals to leave the US voluntarily as the system becomes increasingly more difficult for them to feed on.  Approximately 1.1 million stand to lose ACA subsidies by January of 2027, which is necessary if you want to dissuade future migrants from falsely using asylum claims to get access to US tax dollars.

Again, a majority of Democrats were willing to shut down SNAP and other federally run programs going into the holiday season just to maintain ACA benefits for non-citizens.  They also wanted to force Trump to reverse a number of cuts to federal programs implemented a the beginning of his term.

The more general debate over rising health insurance costs can't really be addressed without bringing the entirety of Obamacare into question.  Dems want to blame Trump, but the average worker's yearly insurance premiums have increased by 40% for individuals and 64% for families since Obamacare was passed.  Wasn't the program supposed to reduce medical care costs for everyone?  

By every metric the ACA has made healthcare worse, not better.  Yet another Democrat failure that they refuse to acknowledge.

Beyond this issue, the progressive game plan functions very similar to how it did in 2020 - Keeping the nation constantly on edge until elections roll in, and then blaming the tensions on Trump and conservatives.  The majority of the populace and the Electoral College voted for Trump's policies in 2024, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the incessant obstructions by Democrats over the last eleven months. 

The shutdown process is not over yet and a number of hurdles remain, but the fact that at least 10 Dems broke from the party in order to end the madness exposes divisions within the progressive guard.  Perhaps they are not as hive-minded as they used to be.   

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 06:55

Infighting Boils Over After Handful Of Democrats Vote To Reopen Government

Zero Hedge -

Infighting Boils Over After Handful Of Democrats Vote To Reopen Government

How quickly the tone of the Democratic Party has changed in the past week.  Only a few days ago they were boasting about a "blue wave" after winning a small number of elections that they were guaranteed to win regardless.  Some even cited the ongoing government shutdown as a catalyst for their victories in NYC, New Jersey and Virginia.  This might have emboldened a number of leftists to carry the shutdown further.

The Democrat strategy has been rather rudimentary:  Create chaos, foment instability and mob violence, demand Republicans cave to their demands, rinse, repeat.  It has worked many times in the past, so why wouldn't it work now.  Except, Republicans didn't fold this time. 

Ten Senate Dems have realized the folly of their party's methodology and have decided to work with conservatives to reopen the federal government with, essentially, the same agreement that Republicans put on the table at the very beginning of the shutdown fight. 

A clean bill with funding through September 2026.  Federal workers fired during the shutdown will be reinstated.  Retroactive pay for furloughed workers.  No extension of ACA tax credits until a "possible" floor vote in December.

The vote in the Senate has sparked an angry fervor within the Democratic Party with many members realizing that they walked away empty handed.  They thought (incorrectly) that they had Donald Trump at their mercy with their election wins, suggesting that Trump would be forced to capitulate before the Thanksgiving holiday.  Other Democrats disagreed and set out to strike a deal.

Oddly, shutdown Democrats argue that constituents angry over the lack of a standoff victory should "blame Trump" and not party leaders for the embarrassing outcome.  Dem leaders blame Trump for their failures even when Trump isn't around to cause them to fail.

Party members are calling for a changing of the guard in leadership, with some demanding that Chuck Schumer step down as Senate minority leader.  Leftists are raging across social media after the ten breakaway senators agreed to a deal.  Party members admit that the far-left progressive (woke) wing is running the Democrats at this time; one does not simply ignore the leftist hive mind and act individually.  

Bernie Sanders described the event as "a very bad night" and said the promised December ACA vote was a "meaningless gesture." He claimed that abandoning demands made a "horrific situation even worse."

Gavin Newsom called the deal a "Capitulation and betrayal of working Americans", stating that "The American people need more from their leaders."

Numerous progressive groups called for Chuck Schumer's resignation.

It's true that Republicans got what they wanted, but Democrats are acting like this is a bad thing. 

Cuts to ACA for illegal migrants (asylum seekers and non-citizens) start in 2026, which was what the fight was about all along.  The point?  Loss of government subsidies adds pressure for illegals to leave the US voluntarily as the system becomes increasingly more difficult for them to feed on.  Approximately 1.1 million stand to lose ACA subsidies by January of 2027, which is necessary if you want to dissuade future migrants from falsely using asylum claims to get access to US tax dollars.

Again, a majority of Democrats were willing to shut down SNAP and other federally run programs going into the holiday season just to maintain ACA benefits for non-citizens.  They also wanted to force Trump to reverse a number of cuts to federal programs implemented a the beginning of his term.

The more general debate over rising health insurance costs can't really be addressed without bringing the entirety of Obamacare into question.  Dems want to blame Trump, but the average worker's yearly insurance premiums have increased by 40% for individuals and 64% for families since Obamacare was passed.  Wasn't the program supposed to reduce medical care costs for everyone?  

By every metric the ACA has made healthcare worse, not better.  Yet another Democrat failure that they refuse to acknowledge.

Beyond this issue, the progressive game plan functions very similar to how it did in 2020 - Keeping the nation constantly on edge until elections roll in, and then blaming the tensions on Trump and conservatives.  The majority of the populace and the Electoral College voted for Trump's policies in 2024, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the incessant obstructions by Democrats over the last eleven months. 

The shutdown process is not over yet and a number of hurdles remain, but the fact that at least 10 Dems broke from the party in order to end the madness exposes divisions within the progressive guard.  Perhaps they are not as hive-minded as they used to be.   

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 06:55

Has China Become The New Risk-Free Rate?

Zero Hedge -

Has China Become The New Risk-Free Rate?

Authored by Charles de Quinsonas via BondVigilantes.com,

On 5th November China issued $4 billion worth of US dollar (USD)-denominated bonds split across two equal tranches.

The orderbook was $161 billion at one point, but ended near $118 billion when final pricing was announced. The 3-year $2 billion tranche priced at US Treasury + 0bp (aka flat to UST) and the 5-year $2 billion tranche priced at US Treasury +2bp.

The following morning, bonds traded up significantly and were quoted more than 30bp inside UST (specifically: China 28s -33.5bp  | China 30s -37.5bp).

This is unusual.

Looking at other high-credit quality sovereign issuers in US Dollar, South Korea 30s (AA-rated) trade at T+5bp, Abu Dhabi 30s (AA-rated) trade at T+10bp, or Qatar 30s (AA-rated) trade T+18bp. China is A+ rated so, on paper, its creditworthiness is assessed as weaker than South Korea or Qatar, and in this case AA-rated USA.

So, what’s so special about China?

“Has it become the new risk-free rate” asked one of my colleagues?

A natural tendency would be to think that China’s stability has become a new safe haven considering the year-to-date deterioration of the US institutions and creditworthiness.

The new US administration, the weaker US dollar, the threat to Fed independence, the ongoing government shut-down and the constant tariff noise may be an easy cocktail of answers as to why China trades inside the US.

However, the argument does not stand.

In November 2024, China issued $750 million of 5-year USD denominated bonds at T+3bp and they have been trading 30bp or more inside the Treasuries since then. Therefore, the perceived weakening US exceptionalism is hardly an explanation because mid-November last year very few investors would have anticipated the events that unfolded since the US Presidential election.

Source: Bloomberg (10 November 2025).

As often with bond trading, when the fundamental picture is failing to explain bond trends or moves, the technical picture may bring some colour.

Firstly, China has little external debt in USD so there is scarcity of bonds on offer.

In contrast, Chinese banks are flush with US dollar deposits, so there is demand for USD assets.

The alternatives to USD-denominated Chinese government bonds are not attractive because state-owned enterprise US dollar debt in China is rather expensive, and credit spreads in other IG names are close to their all-time tights.

Secondly, there’s a (complex) tax rebate system that some onshore bank clients benefit from on bond income.

The orderbook statistics showed that Asia accounted for 53% of last week’s book by geography type and banks for 33% by investor type.

The supply/demand imbalance, coupled with the tax rebate means you get strong technicals for the newly issued dollar bonds.

In addition, central banks, sovereign wealth funds and institutions – which tend to closely hold bonds – accounted for 26% of the orderbook.

This should have helped secondary market trading.

All of which led to robust performance and trading well inside the UST curve.

China recently unveiled plans to sell up to €4 billion of euro-denominated bonds later this month, but the above technical picture does not seem to apply to China’s Euro-denominated curve. China euro 5-year bonds, using CHINA 0 ¼ 11/25/30, have been trading between +20 and +40bps over the equivalent German Bund. China has not made it yet to the new risk-free rate.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 06:30

Has China Become The New Risk-Free Rate?

Zero Hedge -

Has China Become The New Risk-Free Rate?

Authored by Charles de Quinsonas via BondVigilantes.com,

On 5th November China issued $4 billion worth of US dollar (USD)-denominated bonds split across two equal tranches.

The orderbook was $161 billion at one point, but ended near $118 billion when final pricing was announced. The 3-year $2 billion tranche priced at US Treasury + 0bp (aka flat to UST) and the 5-year $2 billion tranche priced at US Treasury +2bp.

The following morning, bonds traded up significantly and were quoted more than 30bp inside UST (specifically: China 28s -33.5bp  | China 30s -37.5bp).

This is unusual.

Looking at other high-credit quality sovereign issuers in US Dollar, South Korea 30s (AA-rated) trade at T+5bp, Abu Dhabi 30s (AA-rated) trade at T+10bp, or Qatar 30s (AA-rated) trade T+18bp. China is A+ rated so, on paper, its creditworthiness is assessed as weaker than South Korea or Qatar, and in this case AA-rated USA.

So, what’s so special about China?

“Has it become the new risk-free rate” asked one of my colleagues?

A natural tendency would be to think that China’s stability has become a new safe haven considering the year-to-date deterioration of the US institutions and creditworthiness.

The new US administration, the weaker US dollar, the threat to Fed independence, the ongoing government shut-down and the constant tariff noise may be an easy cocktail of answers as to why China trades inside the US.

However, the argument does not stand.

In November 2024, China issued $750 million of 5-year USD denominated bonds at T+3bp and they have been trading 30bp or more inside the Treasuries since then. Therefore, the perceived weakening US exceptionalism is hardly an explanation because mid-November last year very few investors would have anticipated the events that unfolded since the US Presidential election.

Source: Bloomberg (10 November 2025).

As often with bond trading, when the fundamental picture is failing to explain bond trends or moves, the technical picture may bring some colour.

Firstly, China has little external debt in USD so there is scarcity of bonds on offer.

In contrast, Chinese banks are flush with US dollar deposits, so there is demand for USD assets.

The alternatives to USD-denominated Chinese government bonds are not attractive because state-owned enterprise US dollar debt in China is rather expensive, and credit spreads in other IG names are close to their all-time tights.

Secondly, there’s a (complex) tax rebate system that some onshore bank clients benefit from on bond income.

The orderbook statistics showed that Asia accounted for 53% of last week’s book by geography type and banks for 33% by investor type.

The supply/demand imbalance, coupled with the tax rebate means you get strong technicals for the newly issued dollar bonds.

In addition, central banks, sovereign wealth funds and institutions – which tend to closely hold bonds – accounted for 26% of the orderbook.

This should have helped secondary market trading.

All of which led to robust performance and trading well inside the UST curve.

China recently unveiled plans to sell up to €4 billion of euro-denominated bonds later this month, but the above technical picture does not seem to apply to China’s Euro-denominated curve. China euro 5-year bonds, using CHINA 0 ¼ 11/25/30, have been trading between +20 and +40bps over the equivalent German Bund. China has not made it yet to the new risk-free rate.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 06:30

India Races To Replace Russian Oil With US, Iraqi, & UAE Crude

Zero Hedge -

India Races To Replace Russian Oil With US, Iraqi, & UAE Crude

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Two Indian refiners bought a total of 5 million barrels of crude oil from the United States, Iraq, and the UAE on the spot market as they seek alternatives to Russian crude.

Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources, that Hindustan Petroleum Corp. had bought 2 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate and 2 million barrels of Murban crude for delivery in January.

The other refiner, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium, also to be delivered in January, the Reuters sources said.

The search for alternative oil supplies follows the Trump administration’s decision last month to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for half of Russia’s oil exports and a significant portion of Indian imports from the country.

The sanctions ignited a rush to secure supplies ahead of the entry into effect of the sanctions, on November 21, while oil buyers look for loopholes to keep their access to discounted Russian crude.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported an unusual move by two tankers, both sanctioned by the European Union and the UK, which performed a ship-to-ship transfer off the Indian coast last week.

One of the tankers, the Ailana, had been idling for a couple of weeks prior to the transfer, Bloomberg wrote, noting that after the transfer, the receiving tanker, Fortis, continued to the Indian port of Kochi, while the Ailana set off for Russia.

In separate but related news, India’s president, Droupadi Murmu, said Indian oil and gas companies were seeking long-term relationships with Angolan energy entities, interested in investing both in energy commodities and in critical minerals.

“Angola's role in India's energy security is very important. India is a major buyer of Angola's oil and gas. Our oil and gas companies are desirous of entering into a long-term purchase contract with Angola,” Murmu said during a state visit to the West African country.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 05:00

India Races To Replace Russian Oil With US, Iraqi, & UAE Crude

Zero Hedge -

India Races To Replace Russian Oil With US, Iraqi, & UAE Crude

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Two Indian refiners bought a total of 5 million barrels of crude oil from the United States, Iraq, and the UAE on the spot market as they seek alternatives to Russian crude.

Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources, that Hindustan Petroleum Corp. had bought 2 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate and 2 million barrels of Murban crude for delivery in January.

The other refiner, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium, also to be delivered in January, the Reuters sources said.

The search for alternative oil supplies follows the Trump administration’s decision last month to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for half of Russia’s oil exports and a significant portion of Indian imports from the country.

The sanctions ignited a rush to secure supplies ahead of the entry into effect of the sanctions, on November 21, while oil buyers look for loopholes to keep their access to discounted Russian crude.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported an unusual move by two tankers, both sanctioned by the European Union and the UK, which performed a ship-to-ship transfer off the Indian coast last week.

One of the tankers, the Ailana, had been idling for a couple of weeks prior to the transfer, Bloomberg wrote, noting that after the transfer, the receiving tanker, Fortis, continued to the Indian port of Kochi, while the Ailana set off for Russia.

In separate but related news, India’s president, Droupadi Murmu, said Indian oil and gas companies were seeking long-term relationships with Angolan energy entities, interested in investing both in energy commodities and in critical minerals.

“Angola's role in India's energy security is very important. India is a major buyer of Angola's oil and gas. Our oil and gas companies are desirous of entering into a long-term purchase contract with Angola,” Murmu said during a state visit to the West African country.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 05:00

"We May Have To Evacuate Tehran": Iranian President's Remarks Stun Amid Water Crisis

Zero Hedge -

"We May Have To Evacuate Tehran": Iranian President's Remarks Stun Amid Water Crisis

Coming off a very 'hot' geopolitical summer which saw Israel and the US attack Tehran and the Islamic Republic's nuclear energy facilities, Iran is now facing yet another immensely threatening crisis amid historic drought: lack of water for the population of 90+ million.

Rainfall has been at record lows, causing reservoirs to be nearly empty, in an already arid Middle East climate. The situation has grown so acute that President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that if the drought persists for another month, Tehran's water would have to be rationed. But this appears to be happening currently, as no rain is expected for at least the next ten days.

Via Iran News Update

Already Iranians are being urged to conserve water and only use what's available for the most pressing needs. Pezeshkian has actually said something stunning and unprecedented on Monday, though some are describing it as obvious hyperbole: 

"If rationing doesn't work," Pezeshkian said, "we may have to evacuate Tehran."

The alarming statement resulted in an avalanche of criticism in Iranian media, also with former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi dismissing the idea as "a joke" and saying that "evacuating Tehran makes no sense at all".

Some regional analysts and officials report an over 90% decrease in rainfall compared with last year. The NY Times summarizes of how dire the situation is:

Iran’s officials have begun rationing water in the capital, Tehran, amid a drought so severe that the president has warned the capital may need to be evacuated.

The country is facing the worst drought in six decades, and major dams are at critically low levels. Water authorities this week said the main dams feeding Tehran, on which more than 10 million people depend, were at 5 percent capacity.

On Sunday, the spokesman for Iran’s water industry, Isa Bozorgzadeh, told reporters that water pressure would be lowered from midnight until the morning “so that we can both reduce urban leakage and create an opportunity for city reservoirs to refill.”

People have in some cases taken to TikTok and other social media to show that faucets in their homes have stopped producing water for hours at a time.

Iranian officials are mulling extreme measures and outside-the-box approaches:

This fall, the Ministry of Energy announced the practice of “cloud seeding,” a weather modification technique that involves dispersing particles like silver iodide into existing clouds to encourage rainfall. However, for it to work, clouds need to contain at least 50 percent moisture, which experts say is not currently the case in Iran.

BBC writes of one vital reservoir, "The manager of the Latian Dam, one of Tehran's main water sources, says it now holds less than 10% of its capacity. The nearby Karaj Dam — which supplies water to both Tehran and Alborz provinces — is in a similarly dire condition."

"I have never seen this dam so empty since I was born," one area resident told Iranian state TV.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 04:15

"We May Have To Evacuate Tehran": Iranian President's Remarks Stun Amid Water Crisis

Zero Hedge -

"We May Have To Evacuate Tehran": Iranian President's Remarks Stun Amid Water Crisis

Coming off a very 'hot' geopolitical summer which saw Israel and the US attack Tehran and the Islamic Republic's nuclear energy facilities, Iran is now facing yet another immensely threatening crisis amid historic drought: lack of water for the population of 90+ million.

Rainfall has been at record lows, causing reservoirs to be nearly empty, in an already arid Middle East climate. The situation has grown so acute that President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that if the drought persists for another month, Tehran's water would have to be rationed. But this appears to be happening currently, as no rain is expected for at least the next ten days.

Via Iran News Update

Already Iranians are being urged to conserve water and only use what's available for the most pressing needs. Pezeshkian has actually said something stunning and unprecedented on Monday, though some are describing it as obvious hyperbole: 

"If rationing doesn't work," Pezeshkian said, "we may have to evacuate Tehran."

The alarming statement resulted in an avalanche of criticism in Iranian media, also with former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi dismissing the idea as "a joke" and saying that "evacuating Tehran makes no sense at all".

Some regional analysts and officials report an over 90% decrease in rainfall compared with last year. The NY Times summarizes of how dire the situation is:

Iran’s officials have begun rationing water in the capital, Tehran, amid a drought so severe that the president has warned the capital may need to be evacuated.

The country is facing the worst drought in six decades, and major dams are at critically low levels. Water authorities this week said the main dams feeding Tehran, on which more than 10 million people depend, were at 5 percent capacity.

On Sunday, the spokesman for Iran’s water industry, Isa Bozorgzadeh, told reporters that water pressure would be lowered from midnight until the morning “so that we can both reduce urban leakage and create an opportunity for city reservoirs to refill.”

People have in some cases taken to TikTok and other social media to show that faucets in their homes have stopped producing water for hours at a time.

Iranian officials are mulling extreme measures and outside-the-box approaches:

This fall, the Ministry of Energy announced the practice of “cloud seeding,” a weather modification technique that involves dispersing particles like silver iodide into existing clouds to encourage rainfall. However, for it to work, clouds need to contain at least 50 percent moisture, which experts say is not currently the case in Iran.

BBC writes of one vital reservoir, "The manager of the Latian Dam, one of Tehran's main water sources, says it now holds less than 10% of its capacity. The nearby Karaj Dam — which supplies water to both Tehran and Alborz provinces — is in a similarly dire condition."

"I have never seen this dam so empty since I was born," one area resident told Iranian state TV.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 04:15

Epoch Of Change

Zero Hedge -

Epoch Of Change

Authored by T.L.Davis via Substack,

I hope people are recognizing that they live in a very volatile world.

Growing up in the 60s-70s it was pretty tame. There was the Vietnam war and war protesters, there was the free-love movement, feminism and other cultural changes taking place, but the whole world was not aflame as it is now. This could only be brought about by a worldwide effort to throw it into chaos.

Chaos is the enemy of the capitalist and friend of the communist. It’s during chaos that communism can provide answers to the problems they’ve caused. But back in the 70s and 80s a lot could go on without notice. A person just working their job might not know it was happening. Today, every shiver and shrug of culture is noted, recorded and broadcast over the internet. To be ignorant of the issues today takes an intentional willingness, a refusal to be shoved out of their bliss. There is something to be said for that, even.

One of the things we advocated in the documentary Deconstruction is taking place right before our eyes. Anti-immigration countries are banding together into a solid block within the EU and the stronger they get, the more will want to join.

It’s a civil war that’s taking place, but not with weapons, with common sense and rational thinking challenging the tyrannical rule of a small group of communist bureaucrats in the EU.

I’m proud of our documentary for raising the important issues at such a crucial time. But this isn’t the end. There are only 4 or 5 of the 27 EU nations signing on to this, so there’s plenty of work to do.

Why is it important to me, or you, that this is taking place a world away? It has to do with national security, cultural restoration and the survival of civilization. The great works of art, of progress and a sense of building something for the future rests on the nations from whence we all came at some time or another.

What’s happening in the EU is the product of the globalists and the stronger they get, the weaker we are as a nation. The US is already suffering from the effects of a declining power. Its ability to produce a functional weapons system has been destroyed by the weapons bureaucracy. One might even think, through the woke military of so many years, even decades, that it’s actually sabotage that’s taken place.

The economy is a whisp of smoke and the arrangement of mirrors, the climbing GDP and such merely an inverted down-stepping chart. During Biden’s years government spending topped the GDP, trillions of printed dollars, suggesting that the GDP was keeping pace with debt, but one was fueling the other.

The point is, the focus of America was lost sometime back in the 1970s, when Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard. It may not seem connected, but from that point onward, wages have declined while the amount paid in fiat dollars might rise, the standard of living decreases. How it’s connected, at least in my own thoughts, is that once the dollar was taken off of the gold standard, the nation became, especially in the upper echelons, focused on wealth retention rather than wealth building. Crypto is nothing less than a means to achieve that, though its dependence on electricity to make it work bothers me.

Inventions almost literally stopped about the same time and wringing more dollars out of the same technology became the intent of manufacturing. Cell phones are just radios, computers are now smaller and faster, but still work off of the original concept in the 1950s. Aircraft are still aircraft, drones are still aircraft, missiles, even the hypersonic ones, are not new technology. Automobiles, no matter how advanced or cool are no different, not even the self-driving ones. In fact, a lot of the things we find in our cars are not there for any other reason than to track the vehicle and bug it for meanspeak that will be important later after the social credit score kicks in. I prefer my 1996 F-150 to any of them and my 1985 diesel to it.

Is it any wonder that it seems like a reckoning must take place?

That allowing industries and government to control our lives is a bad idea?

That is fascism, by definition, unless they’ve changed the definition to mean anything “right,” which I think they have.

This is an epoch of change, some very drastic changes.

It’s a moment of revolution against the system on a global scale; a system that has taken whole populations and subjected them to cruel and malevolent punishment for being white, or European, or Christian. And that’s where this finally boils down to a civilizational battle.

In a world flooded by Islamists, who naturally reject the host nations and establish islands of Islam in seas of Christianity, it has to come down to a religious battle.

Right now, it’s a battle of driving more troops into Europe, or driving them out of the UK, France and Germany, in Sweden and Denmark. Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and the Czech Republic are pushing back against the experiment that has gone awry in Western Europe and attempting to keep the migrants out to start with, not because they hate migrants, but because, unlike Western Europe, they value their culture and religion.

America can draw strength from the Central and Eastern European bloc that has rejected illegal immigration rather than build a complete apparatus to deport those already there. One can understand it either as a religious battle, or a battle against communists, it works either way, because the Islamists are communists in drag. They are the communist shock troops and once the worldwide caliphate is established communism will simply slip away into the darkness of history, morphed into a religious, patriarchal tyranny.

It is the duty, in my mind, to stop it; to stop communism, Islam and anything that threatens the freedoms we’ve had in the past. I thought that would have been done by technology, that the advance of technology would create a world of individualists and it has that power to do so, but it has been coopted to become a weapon against the individual, promising security.

Anything is possible in this world, anything. All it takes is a concerted effort to achieve it. Focusing that intent is the hard part, but the lines are being drawn more definitively every day. This is the time to do it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 03:30

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