Buffett Liquidated Citigroup, Dumped Financial Stocks As US Entered Trade War : Full 13F Breakdown

Warren Buffett already stunned the Berkshire faithful with his "shocking" announcement last weekend that the 94 year old billionaire was, gasp, finally retiring as CEO of the $1 trillion+ conglomerate. Luckily, there were no surprises in Buffett's latest 13F filing published at the close today: while Buffett did not add any new positions in the quarter that preceded Trump’s trade war, he did liquidate two of his previous large holdings, and continued to trim positions in financial stocks while adding to a handful others.

Buffett started off the last year of his tenure as CEO of Berkshire by exiting his once-huge position in Citigroup, while also shrinking his holdings in Capital One Financial and continuing to trim his longtime stake in Bank of America.

While it is still a top 5 position valued at $26.4 billion at the end of Q1, Buffett started selling his BofA stake in July last year, without providing any explanation for the move. He now owns 8.3% of the US lender and is no longer its biggest shareholder, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Berkshire also fully liquidated its stake in Brazil’s Nubank, which has grown into one of the world’s biggest digital banks since its 2013 founding. Berkshire bought a $500 million stake before the bank went public in 2021. The stock has gained 46% since. 

On the plus side, Buffett added to his stake in Constellation Brands, which now totals 6.6%, or $2.2 billion; he opened the new position in the alcohol distributor in the last quarter of 2024. He also bought more Sirius XM Holdings and Occidental Petroleum, where he is by far the largest holder with 27% of the shares outstanding. In addition, the company requested confidentiality treatment from the Securities and Exchange Commission, meaning Berkshire was allowed to omit one of more holdings in its filing Thursday.

After aggressively selling down his stake in Apple for much of 2023 and 2024, his AAPL shares were untouched in Q1 and still represents the billionaire’s portfolio’s most valuable holding.

Here is a full breakdown of what Berkshire did in Q1. It added to position in:

• Occidental Petroleum, +763,017 million shares to 264.9 million shares, or $13.1 billion as of March 31
• Verisign, +18.423 shares to 13.3 million shares or $3.4 billion
• SiriusXM, +2.3 million shares to 119.8 million shares, or $2.7 billion
• Constellation Brands, +6.4 million shares to 12.009 million, or $2.2 billion
• Dominos Pizza, +238,613 shares to 2.6 million shares, or $1.2 billion
• Pool Corp, +865,311 shares to 1.5 million shares, or $466 million
• Heico Corp, +112,401 shares to 1.2 million shares, or $245.2 million

It reduced its positions in:

• Bank of America, by 48.7 million shares to 631.6 million shares, or $26.4 billion as of March 31
• Davita, by 953,091 shares to 35.1 million shares, or $5.4 billion
• Liberty Media, by 3.3 million shares to 19.4 million shares or $1.4 billion
• Capital One, by 300K shares to 7.150 million shares, or $1.3 billion
• T-Mobile, by 469K shares to 3.9 million shares, or $1.0 billion
• Charter Communications, by 7500 shares to 1.98 million shares, or $731 million

Buffett largely refrained from making large acquisitions in recent years, instead building a cash pile that reached nearly $350 billion by the end of March. At the conglomerate’s annual meeting this month, the billionaire said the recent market downturn was “really nothing,” pointing to times in Berkshire’s history when his company’s stock lost half of its value in short spans.

As we reported at the start of May, Buffett will step down as chairman at year-end. He built Berkshire into a business valued at more than $1.1 trillion, with individuals as well as professionals closely watching and sometimes imitating his investment moves.

Shares of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire have gained more than 11% so far this year. The S&P 500 Index has risen less than 1% during the same period.

A full breakdown of Berkshire's holdings is below.

Source: Edgar

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 20:05

 

Hey, just back after taking the redeye home from Futureproof Colorado, and getting my feet back under me. But I wanted to briefly discuss tomorrow’s release of the University of Michigan (UMich) long-term inflation expectations.

You probably know my thoughts on both Inflation Expectations and Sentiment Surveys.

ICYMI, Inflation Expectations are a backwards looking exercise in the Recency Effect. But even worse, they typically lag actual inflation by 6-12 months. As i explained in 2023:

“Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve spend a lot of time worrying about Inflation Expectations. They shouldn’t. Generally, Sentiment Surveys are useless — most of the time — the exception being on rare occasions at the extremes.

They aren’t merely lagging, backward-looking indicators, but instead, inform us as to what the public was experiencing about 3-6 months ago. Typically, it takes people a few weeks or months to subconsciously incorporate broad, subtle changes into their internal mental models, and longer to consciously recognize those nuanced shifts.”

The chart gives the entire story away:

Future inflation expectations were at their aboslute nadir just before the biggest inflation spike in decades occurred. And when future inflation expectations were at their highest levels? We were about to start a 12 month collapse in CPI/PCE inflation measures.

So, mostly useless — at least as a predictor of longer term inflation rates. But they are great at telling you what the inflation of the past 6 months was.

As to general sentiment surveys, well the chart at top showing political bias should make you realize how flimsy this is as a measure. Especially when consumers say one thing, but then do the exact opposite with their money.

The chart at top is from Bank of America; here is their take:

The UMich survey shows substantial divergence by political affiliation (Exhibit 1). Long-term inflation expectations have surged among Democrats and Independents, to 5.1% and 4.4%, respectively, in recent months. However, expectations have cratered to 1.5% among Republicans. This stark divergence has led some analysts to dismiss the UMich survey, arguing that the results are being driven by political preferences rather than an actual assessment of inflation dynamics.

All of the above is before we get to issues prevalent in both mainstream and algorthmic social media…

 

 

 

Previously:
What Else Might be Driving Sentiment? (October 19, 2023)

More Inflation Expectations Silliness (July 5, 2023)

Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment? (August 9, 2022)

More Sentiment Nonsense (July 28, 2023)

The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022)

Sentiment versus Spending (XXX)

Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment? (August 9, 2022)

The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022)

Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022)

Sentiment

The post The Trouble with Surveys appeared first on The Big Picture.

Lethal Lidar: Volvo SUV's Infrared Beam Fries Smartphone Camera

High-powered lidar systems—commonly used in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles—emit infrared laser beams to map their environments. While invisible to the human eye, these beams can damage smartphone camera sensors, as one Reddit user recently discovered the hard way. 

Reddit user Jeguetelli recently shared a video on the r/Volvo subreddit showing a smartphone camera's image sensor being fried after filming the front-mounted lidar sensor on the Volvo EX90—a fully electric, seven-seat luxury SUV that serves as Volvo's flagship entry into the electric vehicle market.

"Never film the new Ex90 because you will break your cell camera.Lidar lasers burn your camera," Jeguetelli wrote. 

Auto blog The Drive pointed out, "It should be said that the risk here is inherent to lidar technology, and has nothing to do with Volvo's specific implementation on the EX90. In fact, earlier this year, the automaker even issued a warning against directing external cameras at the vehicle's lidar pod for the very reasons discussed."

Filming this car's lidar system breaks the phone camerapic.twitter.com/99rfffYS1l

— Interesting things (@awkwardgoogle) May 14, 2025

Volvo's website states:

Lidar light waves can damage external cameras: Do not point a camera directly at the lidar. The lidar, being a laser based system, uses infrared light waves that may cause damage to certain camera devices. This can include smartphones or phones equipped with a camera.

"Would this damage your car's backup camera, if a LIDAR equipped car tailgates you?" one Redditor asked. 

Another person said, "Thank god for Apple Care." 

The ongoing debate in the tech world centers on LiDAR vs. cameras—a big divide in the race toward fully autonomous vehicles, especially when comparing Tesla's camera-only approach to rivals embracing LiDAR.

Elon Musk famously called LiDAR a "crutch," arguing that camera vision powered by advanced AI is sufficient for FSD.

"In my view, it's a crutch that will drive companies to a local maximum that they will find very hard to get out of." Musk said several years ago, adding, "Perhaps I am wrong, and I will look like a fool. But I am quite certain that I am not."

The Counterargument: Tesla's competitors argue that LiDAR provides critical redundancy and reliability, especially for safety-critical applications like robotaxis.

The proliferation of LiDAR sensors on vehicles should come with a public service warning: avoid pointing smartphone cameras at these devices emitting infrared laser beams—they can permanently damage image sensors.

Also, will LiDAR risk burning camera sensors on Tesla vehicles? 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 17:35

Dem Lawmaker Facing Calls For Expulsion And Arrest After Allegedly Assaulting ICE Agents Outside Detention Center In NJ

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Tuesday said the three Democrat lawmakers who scuffled with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in New Jersey last Friday committed felonies.

New Jersey Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman, Robert Menendez and LaMonica McIver were part of a mob that protested at the Delaney Hall detention center, a privately run facility under contract with ICE that houses non-citizens awaiting immigration proceedings or deportation.

The lefty protesters were demanding that the center be shut down, the New York Post reported.

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (D) was arrested Friday afternoon and charged with trespassing after entering the facility and refusing to leave.

An ugly scuffle ensued as the lawmakers surrounded Baraka in an apparent attempt to shield the mayor from the ICE agents making the arrest.

“Don’t touch us!” McIver (in red) screamed over and over as officers tried to break through their blockade.

An online video shows the hefty McIver (in red), a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, throwing punches and shoving law enforcement officers as they tried to regain control.

Watson Coleman said the group of lawmakers had already visited the facility and come out to talk to the mayor when they were the ones allegedly assaulted by ICE agents.

“Since DHS has been lying about this, allow me to correct the record. This scuffle, during which an ICE agent physically shoved me, occurred AFTER we had entered the Delaney Hall premises,” she posted on  X, Friday.

“We entered the facility, came BACK OUT to speak to the Mayor, and then ICE agents began shoving us. This is not how we entered the facility. We were escorted in by guards, because we have lawful oversight authority to be there,” she said.

”Tricia McLaughlin, the Department of Homeland Security’s assistant secretary for public affairs, said on CNN Friday that DHS has damning body-cam video of the scuffle that has not yet been released to the public.

“We actually have body camera footage of some of these members of Congress assaulting our ICE enforcement officers, including body slamming a female ICE officer,” McLaughlin said.

“These members of Congress, this mayor and these protesters are not above the law,” McLaughlin noted on “Fox & Friends,” Monday.

Noem hinted that more arrests are being considered during an appearance on Fox News, Tuesday night.

“This wasn’t oversight, this was committing felonies. This was going out and attacking people who stand up for the rule of law. And it was absolutely horrible,” Noem told the host Jesse Waters, noting that the acts of violence were committed in defense of violent criminals— rapists, murderers, and members of foreign terrorist organizations victimizing American communities.

“What are they trying to do? Get these people released back into the country so there can be more Laken Rileys?” she asked. “I just don’t understand what their point is. They’ve completely lost their minds.”

Noem said it was up to the Department of Justice to decide whether to press charges against the Democrat lawmakers.

Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) introduced a resolution Tuesday to strip the House members of all their committee assignments.

Rep. Marjory Taylor Greene went further Wednesday, saying McIver needs to be expelled.

Greene posted a photo on X showing McIver “couldn’t even look up as video played of her assaulting ICE officers” during a Homeland Security hearing Wednesday.

“She has zero respect for law enforcement or the rule of law, which is especially disgraceful as we honor law enforcement during Police Week,” the congresswoman added. “This isn’t just grounds for censure or removal from committees. LaMonica McIver should be EXPELLED from Congress.”

During the hearing Wednesday, Noem again argued that the Democrat lawmakers were not conducting oversight when they fought with ICE agents.

“What happened on May 9 at Delaney Hall was not oversight. It was a political stunt that put the safety of our law enforcement agents, our staff, and our detainees at risk,” she testified.  “This behavior was lawless, and it was beneath this body. Members of Congress are not above the law and cannot illegally break into detention facilities.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), meanwhile,  criticized the Trump administration over their handling of the incident, the Hill reported.

“If anyone’s breaking the law in this situation, it’s not members of Congress, it’s the Department of Homeland Security,” she said in an Instagram video posted Sunday.

“It’s people like Tom Homan and Secretary Kristi Noem,” she added.

“You lay a finger on someone, on Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman … or any of the representatives that were there, you lay a finger on them, we are going to have a problem,” Ocasio-Cortez added. “Because the people who are breaking the law are the people not abiding by it.”

Via Getty, the peaceful January 6 protester known as “the Lectern Guy,” shared his own thoughts on the fracas over the weekend.

“United States Representative LaMonica McIver has still not been arrested after assaulting multiple federal officers on video,” Getty posted on X Sunday. “Within 48 hours of smiling and waving in the Capitol on J6, I was in county jail isolation under 24-hour supervision, charged with 3 crimes, 2 were lies, the other debatable,” he continued.

“They put me in an ankle monitor and told me I was I was a danger to my community. Meanwhile, this animal is still collecting a paycheck from our tax dollars,” Getty added bitterly.

Fox News reported Wednesday that House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is opening an investigation into threats facing ICE facilities in the wake of the attack on Delaney Hall Detention Center.

Fox News Digital was told that Jordan is expected to schedule a hearing for next Tuesday, with former ICE and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials expected among the witness panel.

Republicans leaders, according to Fox, are still discussing what, if any, consequences could be in store for Reps. Watson Coleman, Menendez and  McIver.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 17:10

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 10 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 10 May. ...

4-10 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 64.6% (-2.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.57 (-0.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.08 (-3.0%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Putin Removes Commander Of Russia's Ground Forces In Another Defense Shake-Up

The longtime commander of Russia's ground forces, Army General Oleg Salyukov, has been relieved of his command by order of President Vladimir Putin on Thursday. 

Salyukov has led the Ground Forces as 'commander-in-chief' since 2014, making his removal a major decision amid what appears an ongoing shake-up of military leadership.

Chief of the Russian Land Forces Oleg Salyukov (far left) attends prior year's Victory Day, in Moscow, on May 9, 2024. Reuters

He just literally oversaw Moscow's Victory Day parade on May 9, and so his removal was likely a highly unexpected development.

As of yet, the Kremlin has offered no specific reason for the top commander's removal. Russia has continued making gains on the battlefield, particularly near Pokrovsk. But the advance has become a very slow grind.

Some the latest gains this week in Donetsk are as follows:

Russian forces captured the settlement of Kotlyarivka, southwest of the embattled area of Pokrovsk, on Monday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said.

The seizure brought Russian forces to within 3.7km (2.3 miles) of the regional border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk in Ukraine. Russian forces also forced their way into the village of Myrolyubivka, east of Pokrovsk, and claimed to have taken the entire settlement.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its forces took the community of Mykhailovka, also in Donetsk.

But it could be that Putin is growing impatient, and wants even greater breakthroughs at a moment peace negotiations mediated by the US are gaining steam. This huge figure points to this:

RUSSIA DEPLOYS 640,000 TROOPS IN WAR AGAINST UKRAINE: MILITARY

Meanwhile Salyukov's removal comes after a series of major defense ministry shake-ups which stretch well into 2023, which had also seen Sergei Shoigu removal as Defense Minister (and 'promoted' into a top security council role).

The commander of Russia's Ground Forces Army General Oleg Salyukov has left his post and has been appointed deputy secretary of the security council under former defense ministry Sergei Shoigu. Salyukov had been the commander of Russia's Ground Forces since 2014.… pic.twitter.com/KiE3CFtQEf

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 15, 2025

According to prior analysis:

Putin typically prioritizes loyalty over competence, which makes the command structure incapable of addressing sudden shifts in the combat environment. The recent profound shake-up of and purges in the Defense Ministry have resulted in a serious bureaucratic disorganization of this structure that is crucial for sustaining the war effort.

The lack of any changes in the General Staff weakens the ability to learn from experience and compromises the authority of the high command. Angst and anger among the fighting generals caused by the ineptness of the high command is a major source of political risk, which Putin can neither ignore nor properly address.

Indeed this analysis remains true, and it's hard to imagine someone with more experience than Salyukov - given that he has commanded the country's ground forces for a decade, including through well over three years of a complex Ukraine battlefield.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 16:45

VDH: The Real First 100 Days

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Pundits are confused about what to make of the first 100 days of the second Trump administration.

Supporters talk of “flooding the zone,” believing Trump is making so many changes so quickly that his opposition is reduced to deer-in-the-headlights infancy.

They must be right when the nation suffers daily Democratic pottymouth videos, vandalism of Teslas, infantile meltdowns at congressional witnesses, rioting against federal agents to protect illegal alien felons, protesting on behalf of women beaters, M-13 gangbangers, human traffickers, and assaulters, and visa-holding violent students praising Hamas terrorists.

In contrast, opponents either claim that Trump’s first three months are either directionless chaos or a Hitlerian nightmare or both.

But what is really happening?

One, Trump is finally addressing the problems that proverbially “cannot go on forever, and so they won’t go on.”

When, if ever, would the left have closed the southern border? After 10, 30, 50 million illegal aliens?

How many more criminal illegal entrants was the Biden administration willing to allow into American neighborhoods—500,000? 1 million? 3 million?

How long was the world simply going to ignore the human destruction on the doorstep of Europe?

Would Biden or Harris have sought a ceasefire? Or would it have taken another 1.5, 3, or even 5 million more dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainians and Russians?

Nor did past administrations ever seek a solution to the massive national debt, much less the uncontrollable budget and trade deficits.

All prior presidents passed the day of judgment on to some vague future presidency, assured that their money printing would at least not blow up on their watch.

All moaned that China was piling up huge trade surpluses while denying its own population the usual modern safety net. They knew Beijing’s aim was to use the trillions of dollars in trade surpluses to build a new massive military, a greater arsenal of nuclear bombs, and a new imperial Belt and Road overseas empire.

Yet no administration did anything but greenlight American outsourcing and offshoring while ignoring Chinese trade cheating and technology theft.

Indeed, prior presidencies appeased and enriched China on the foolish belief that such indulgence would lead to Chinese prosperity, and with such Western-style affluence, soon a globalized, democratic, and supposedly friendly China.

In sum, we just witnessed all at once a 100-day, 360-degree effort to address all the existential challenges that we knew were unsustainable but were either afraid or incompetent to address.

Second, the administration apparently wants to confront the source of these crises and believes it is the progressive project.

The left maintains real political power not by grass-roots popularity, but rather by unelected institutional clout. The party of democracy uses anti-democratic means to achieve its ends of perpetual control.

It wages lawfare through the weaponization of the state, local, and federal courts.

It exercises executive power through cherry-picked federal district and circuit judges and their state and local counterparts.

The permanent bureaucracies and huge federal workforce are mostly left-wing, unionized, and weaponized by a progressive apparat. Their supreme directive is to amalgamate legislative, judicial, and executive power into the hands of the unelected Anthony Faucis, Jim Comeys, and Lois Lerners of the world—and thus to override or ignore both popular plebiscites and the work of the elected Congress.

Over ninety percent of the media—legacy, network, social, and state—are left-wing. Their mission is not objectivity but, admittedly, indoctrination.

Academia is the font of the progressive project. Ninety percent of the professoriate are left-wing and activist—explaining why campuses believe they are above the rules and laws of the Constitution, the Supreme Court, and the U.S. Congress.

Add into the mix the blue-chip Accela corridor law firms and the globalized corporate and revolving-door political elite.

The net result is clear: almost everything the vast majority of Americans and their elected representatives did not want—far-left higher education, a Pravda media, biological men destroying women’s sports, an open border, 30 million illegal aliens, massive debt, a weaponized legal system, and a politicized Pentagon—became the new culture of America.

So, Trump is not just confronting unaddressed existential crises but also the root causes of why, when, and how they become inevitable and nearly unsolvable.

His answer is a messy, knock-down-drag-out counterrevolution to reboot the country back to the middle where it once was and where the Founders believed it should remain.

His right and left opponents call such pushback chaotic, disruptive, and out of control.

But the counterrevolution appears disorderly and upsetting, mostly to those who originally birthed the chaos; it certainly does not to the majority of Americans who finally wanted an end to the madness.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 16:20

Trump Touts 1.4 Trillion Investment In AI, Tech From UAE In Final Mideast Stop

After the several massive announcements and deals to come out of Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, developments during the last leg of the US President's Gulf tour in United Arab Emirates actually seem a bit humdrum by comparison. 

But the visuals and spare no expenses official welcome and ceremonial events have certainly been interesting...

⚡️Trump arrives in the UAE

(Don’t ask me what’s happening)pic.twitter.com/dtUsPwF25W

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 15, 2025

Among the more notable statements has been Trump's touting a 1.4 trillion... yes that's trillion... investment in AI and other tech sectors from the Emirates.

The White House had previewed this longtime in the works deal as related to artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, energy and manufacturing.

Further, Emirates Global Aluminum will "invest in the first new aluminium smelter in the United States in 35 years, which would nearly double US domestic aluminium production."

Getty Images

According to more developments out of the UAE:

• The White House said that Trump and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani signed agreements that would “generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion”.
• The agreements are said to include a $96bn deal with Qatar Airways to buy up to 210 Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777X aeroplanes, and a statement of intent for $38bn in investments at Qatar’s Al Udeid Airbase and other air defence capabilities.
• A meeting is scheduled for later today of US, Turkish and Syrian officials to discuss details of Trump’s announced dropping of sanctions against Syria.
• Trump’s three-country tour of the Gulf state region will conclude in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday.

Amid lots of awards ceremonies, accolades, and a state dinner...

The President of the United Arab Emirates just gave President Trump a special award.

The respect they have for him is unmatched. pic.twitter.com/7r9aKfcKKX

— George (@BehizyTweets) May 15, 2025

Trump has also been filling in more details of fresh arms deals inked with Qatar. "Yesterday we signed an agreement for Qatar to purchase $42bn-worth of the finest American military hardware including THAAD missile batteries," he said Thursday while speaking to US troops at Al Udeid airbase.

The commander-in-chief further detailed that the deal includes "Pegasus refueling aircraft, Desert Vipers, light armored vehicles, amphibious combat vehicles, the MQ-9B and the Sky Guardian drones."

A rare trip to the country's Grand Mosque...

By the way, this is the first time the UAE's Grand Mosque has been closed to the public. They did it to show respect for President Trump.pic.twitter.com/gdxNdMOU49

— George (@BehizyTweets) May 15, 2025

As for Qatar, the president says he's still ready to accept a donated jet from the tiny oil and gas rich country, a flying palace of a future Air Force One, which Dems have been warning would be a violation of the US Constitution's prohibition on foreign gifts. Certainly he'll come back to Washington awaiting immense controversy and backlash from the corporate media and his political enemies.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 15:05

Ukraine Will Never Recognize Occupied Territories As Russia, Zelensky Says From Turkey

Update(1105ET): "We don’t yet know the official level of Russians, but from what we see, it looks phony," Zelensky told reporters in Ankara. So despite the Ukrainian leader earlier declaring "I am here" upon landing in Turkey, he is not in fact at the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul.

This 'I am here' yet not actually 'there' charade generated some contradictory headlines earlier on Thursday. Zelensky continues his performative gestures aimed at impressing one man: Trump. He even explained that he is sending Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to head the Ukrainian delegation for the Istanbul meeting, now likely underway, out of respect for Trump and the peace process he initiated. 

The Kremlin side meanwhile says it's ready to make compromises:

The head of the Russian delegation in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, told Russian state media RIA that Moscow was “ready for discussions.”

“We are ready for discussions, for resuming the Istanbul negotiations; we are prepared for possible compromises and their discussion,” Medinsky said, referring to the last known direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place in Istanbul in the spring of 2022.

But apparently not on the table is the only thing which could actually end this tragic war - territorial concessions: 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv will never recognize parts of Ukraine that are currently occupied as parts of Russia, as he confirmed peace talks are set to go ahead.

“In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land,” Zelensky told journalists.

Still, the fact the two sides are even at the same table in Istanbul is a huge development and start.

⚡️ Russia delegation has been empowered to negotiate with Ukrainian side — Vladimir Medinsky reacts to the lull in Istanbul talks

'We view these talks as a continuation of negotiations BROKEN by Ukraine 3 years ago pic.twitter.com/Kacw5hhDRM

— RT (@RT_com) May 15, 2025

And again, everything Zelensky is doing appears designed to signal Trump - in order to keep America as Kiev's top weapons backer. "Despite the relatively low level of the Russian delegation, out of respect for President Trump, out of respect for the high level of the Turkish delegation and for President Erdogan, we still want to try to take at least the first steps towards a ceasefire, so I have decided to send our delegation to Istanbul now," Zelensky said further.

Zelensky says he is sending defense minister Umerov for direct talks with the Russians in Istanbul, so that nobody (he means Trump) could accuse Ukraine of not trying to reach peace.

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 15, 2025

* * *

Russian President Vladimir Putin's investment envoy and close aide, Kirill Dmitriev, has praised US President Donald Trump for putting together Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, the first such direct dialogue between the warring countries since early 2022.

Trump and his team have "made the impossible possible" by bringing Moscow and Kiev to the table. Dmitriev further wrote on X that the Istanbul meeting is happening "against all odds/fierce resistance" and that if "not derailed last-minute, this could be a historic step to peace."

Dmitriev also specifically named Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio - the latter two who are present in Istanbul - as major contributors to the mediation effort. The Kremlin had spent the opening years of the conflict blasting the Biden administration for constantly stoking the war and thwarting dialogue, taking Washington-Moscow relations to new historic lows.

Via Anadolu Agency

As we noted earlier, Ukraine's President Zelensky is actually in Turkey, where he's set to meet with President Erdogan - but separately in the capital of Ankara, and has boasted that "I am here" and that Putin is not. Zelensky has even called the Russian delegation, largely composed of junior officials, "phony". 

President Trump meanwhile, while attending meetings in Qatar, was asked by a reporter why the American leader is not himself present in Turkey for the talks:

"Why would he go if I’m not going?"

"I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t."

"But we have people there. Marco's doing a fantastic job, Marco's there..."

It remains that Putin has little reason or incentive to go, with war analysts widely recognizing that he remains in the driver's seat militarily, and with Ukrainian forces against the ropes.

‘Why would he go if I’m not going?’: Trump reacts to Putin sitting out Istanbul talks

“I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t.” pic.twitter.com/4YvqvO8gWh

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) May 15, 2025

Zelensky has until now offered no major concessions, and issues like permanent control over Crimea and the four eastern territories remain sticking points for Moscow. Thus there are unlikely to be any major breakthroughs in Istanbul, but the fact that the two sides are even at the table is a big accomplishment.

Below is an important rundown of what's expected in Istanbul and what's at stake for both sides, excerpted from fresh Responsible Statecraft analysis, Istanbul 2.0: know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em:

* * *

What has changed since then?

Ukraine will enter the Istanbul talks in a weaker position that it held in 2022.

Western support for Ukraine financially and economically is not as sound as it was then. No big ticket economic aid and assistance has been made available since the G7 agreement of a $50 billion package of loans, in June 2024. While European states scratched together new economic aid to Ukraine in April, this cannot make up for the reduction in US support.

In territorial terms, Russia withdrew from Kyiv as a concession to the first Istanbul talks and lost ground in Kharkiv and in Kherson in late 2022. However, Russia has gone on steadily to gain further territory in the Donbas since the end of 2023. So while both sides have scores on the board, Russia now maintains the military upper hand on the battlefield and that seems unlikely to change. These two factors in particular were behind President Trump’s February assertion that Ukraine has no cards to play.

What has stayed the same?

NATO membership is still off the table

The verified documents shared by the New York Times last June confirmed that Ukraine’s neutrality and non-membership of NATO was the central issue agreed upon in 2022. Ukraine was ready to become a “permanently neutral state” that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil.

There seems no route for Ukraine to resile from that given its currently weakened negotiating position and President Trump’s stated view that NATO membership for Ukraine is not practical. Although Germany’s new foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul recently repeated the line that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible, most have agreed, privately and publicly, that Ukraine’s path to NATO is a fraught if not impossible one.

Right now, just having the talks is a huge breakthrough

The Istanbul talks would not be happening had the Trump administration not pushed for it so hard. We don’t need to rehash the “did they or didn’t they” debate around why Ukraine abandoned the Istanbul agreement in April 2022. What is clear, is that Ukraine became entrenched, not only in not negotiating with Russia, but in excluding Russia from all discussions on peace in Ukraine from then onward.

Having agreed in principle for Ukraine to accept neutral status Zelensky was pushing his own ten point peace plan. This included, among other things, Russia withdrawing its troops to the pre-2014 border, i.e. giving up Crimea and the Donbass and creating a Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture, by which he meant Ukraine joining NATO. Peace summits were organized in various countries that explicitly excluded Russia, culminating in the Switzerland event on June 15, 2024.

At this event, President Zelensky was dug in deeper on resisting any engagement with Russia until a full withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine, which was a completely unrealistic proposal. “Russia can start negotiations with us even tomorrow without waiting for anything – if they leave our legal territories,” he said.

Even after President Trump was elected, European leaders clung to the line that “only Ukraine can decide what peace means.”’ I see no circumstances in which a Kamala Harris presidency would have cajoled President Zelensky to enter into negotiations. Tomorrow’s talks wouldn’t be happening unless the Trump administration broke a whole load of Ukrainian and European eggshells to get to this point.

Source: Anadolu Agency 

And Responsible Statecraft continues:

The biggest issue now is territory

Even though he was wrongly derided at the time by mainstream media, Steve Witkoff correctly pointed out in his March interview with Tucker Carlson that the territorial issues in Ukraine will be most intractable. Russia’s decision in October 2022 to formally annex the four oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk changed the calculus. However, Russia does not have full territorial control of any of those oblasts, which are cut through the middle by a hotly contested front line.

Resolving the line of control when the war ends is, by some margin, the most problematic challenge. This will be a hugely sensitive topic, and European allies will shoot down any major concessions to Russia, as they did when the idea surfaced that the U.S.might de jure recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea.

The most obvious settlement is a de facto recognition of occupation, a Cyprus-style scenario, that does not stand in the way of Ukraine’s future membership of the European Union. Even that will require detailed agreement on issues around demilitarization of the line of control and enforcing any ceasefire.

Sanctions are probably tricky, but also tractable

As I have said before, there is enormous scope to a plan that allows for the immediate lifting of the bulk of zero-impact measures, phasing out the remainder at points agreed to by both sides. The toughest issue remains the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Belgium. Russia has shown a willingness to concede this funding to support reconstruction in Ukraine, including those parts that Russia occupies.

But there is texture here. Freeing up those funds for reconstruction would immediately remove the source of interest payments that are meeting Ukraine’s obligations on its $50 billion in debt to the G7, agreed to in June 2024. But the more general policy question arises, how much of the freed up funding would be spent in Ukraine itself and how much in Russian-occupied Ukraine, where most of the war damage has occurred? The U.S. must keep the pressure on to ensure the talks stay on track.

A U.S. presence in Istanbul will be vital, to prevent, in particular, Ukraine from bailing on the talks. That’s why sending Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg makes sense. The former is trusted by the Russian side while the latter has built relationships in Ukraine. Their presence serves to keep the process moving forward until a deal can be pushed over the line and the fighting can stop.

Bear in mind that the 2022 talks ran for a month and a half and the circumstances have materially changed as I have indicated above. While there has been speculation that President Trump might drop into Istanbul, I am not sure that this is necessary if President Putin doesn’t himself attend. Knowing the Russians, I assess that Putin will want his own “‘meeting moment” with the U.S. President on terms that the Russian side can better choreograph. Indeed, that may be a prize for Russia’s engagement in the process, given its desire for a more comprehensive reset of relations with the U.S.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 14:20

Trump Admin Urges Supreme Court To Permit DOGE Access To Social Security Records

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Justice urged the Supreme Court on May 13 to let the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have access to Social Security data after lower courts blocked that access.

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on April 3, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump issued Executive Order 14158 on Jan. 20, implementing DOGE, an advisory body that recommends cost-cutting measures. The order directed the entity to “implement the President’s DOGE Agenda, by modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.”

Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued in the new filing that the lower courts have overreached and are attempting to turn themselves into “the human resources department for the Executive Branch.”

The filing came after Ellen Lipton Hollander, a Maryland-based federal district court judge, issued an order on March 20 preventing DOGE from viewing Social Security Administration (SSA) records because such access “violates” the federal Privacy Act.

The lawsuit was brought in February by labor unions and retirees represented by the Democracy Forward Foundation.

“The DOGE Team is essentially engaged in a fishing expedition at SSA, in search of a fraud epidemic, based on little more than suspicion. It has launched a search for the proverbial needle in the haystack, without any concrete knowledge that the needle is actually in the haystack,” the judge wrote in granting a temporary restraining order against the federal government.

DOGE’s team at the Social Security Administration has had “unbridled access to the personal and private data of millions of Americans, including but not limited to Social Security numbers, medical records, mental health records, hospitalization records, drivers’ license numbers, bank and credit card information, tax information, income history, work history, birth and marriage certificates, and home and work addresses,” Hollander wrote.

Hollander directed DOGE to delete any personally identifiable data in its possession. On April 17, Hollander upgraded the temporary restraining order to a preliminary injunction.

On April 30, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit voted 9–6 to maintain Hollander’s order while the appeal process continues.

On May 2, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court, asking the justices to pause the preliminary injunction.

In the May 13 filing, Sauer argued that the district court erred in preventing “the 11 members of the Social Security Administration (SSA) DOGE team—from accessing data ... for purposes that are unquestionably lawful.”

The district court “dictated to the Executive Branch which government employees can access which data and even prescribed necessary training, background checks, and paperwork for data access,” Sauer wrote.

“When district courts attempt to transform themselves into the human resources department for the Executive Branch, the irreparable harm to the government is clear,” he wrote.

When the courts “stymie the government’s initiatives to modernize badly outdated systems and combat rampant fraud—leaving those initiatives on a litigation track that may halt them for months or years—the irreparable harm is even clearer.”

Reviewing Social Security Administration data is important because the agency has “one of the largest documented histories of improper payments,” Sauer stated.

In a brief in opposition filed on May 12, the lead respondent, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, said that after years of honoring “its data security obligations,” the Social Security Administration “now seeks to throw open its data systems to unauthorized (and often unvetted) personnel who have no demonstrated need for the personally identifiable information ... they seek.”

The April 17 preliminary injunction should be left in place because it is “narrow and, contrary to the government’s assertions, permits SSA to disclose both anonymized and non-anonymized data to DOGE Team members,” the brief said.

The Supreme Court could rule on the government’s emergency application at any time.

Jack Phillips contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 14:05

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April

A brief excerpt:

This data suggests sales will be down year-over-year for the 3rd consecutive month in April, and that sales-to-date in 2025 are trailing sales in 2024 - and 2024 was the lowest sales year since 1995! Also, it seems sales in April might have a 3 handle (be under 4 million).
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase into the Summer.

Months in red are areas that are seeing 5 months of supply now and might see price pressures later this summer.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

Democratic Senators Remove Trump-Targeting Provisions In Push To Pass Stablecoin Bill

The US Senate could pass a key bipartisan stablecoin bill as soon as next week after removing language targeting President Donald Trump and his family’s sprawling crypto interests.

As Jesse Coghlan reports below for CoinTelegraph, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis said onstage at an event by Coinbase’s lobbying arm, Stand With Crypto, that she thinks it's a “fair target” to have the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act, passed by May 26 — Memorial Day in the US.

Joining her onstage was Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who hinted that the bill’s language was changed to scrap provisions that targeted Trump’s various crypto projects, which include memecoins, a crypto platform, a stablecoin and a crypto mining company that plans to go public, among others.

“When this language comes out, people will see really good refinement, a lot of progress, on things like consumer protection, and bankruptcy protection, and ethics,” Gillibrand said.

“Things beyond just ‘what’s the structure?’ and ‘what’s required for an issuer?’”

Senate Democrats pulled support for the bill on May 8 and stalled its momentum, airing concerns that it wouldn’t help address multiple crypto-tied deals that will personally enrich Trump.

“A lot of what President Trump is engaged in is already illegal,” Gillibrand said. 

“I also think his issuance of a memecoin is illegal based on current law.”

“It’s literally offering anyone who wants to curry favor with the administration to just send him money — that’s about as illegal as it gets.”

“I’m not so worried about this bill having to deal with all President Trump’s ethics problems. What this bill is really intended to do is regulate the entire space of stablecoins,” she added.

Source: Brian Armstrong

Gillibrand said the revised bill includes “some ethics requirements,” but it was “not an ethics bill.”

“If we were dealing with all President Trump’s ethics problems, it would be a very long and detailed bill,” she added.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, also on stage, was hopeful the Senate would vote on the stablecoin bill “early next week.”

Armstrong, whose company cozied up to Trump by donating $1 million to his inauguration fund, declined to comment when asked if the President’s memecoin could impact the passage of bipartisan crypto bills.

“It’s not my place to really comment on President Trump’s activity,” he said. 

“What I do think is important is that this bill remains focused on stablecoins.”

Crypto bills “absolutely critical” to pass before midterms

The crypto industry is pushing for Congress to pass the GENIUS Act and a Republican-drafted crypto market structure bill before the midterm elections on Nov. 3, 2026, where all 435 House seats and a third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election.

“We have a very narrow window to get legislation through between now and the midterms,” Marta Belcher, the president of the crypto lobby group the Blockchain Association, told Cointelegraph at the Consensus conference in Toronto.

“I strongly suspect that window is going to close very quickly. I don't know if we're going to get another window like this to get legislation through,” she added.

“It's absolutely critical that we get it through now, especially because there really is a real possibility that in the future we end up with an administration that is hostile to crypto.”

The association’s communications director, Chris Jonas, added that it’s critical the bills pass before Congress takes a recess for the month of August.

“Once you get into the calendar year of the midterms, historically not a lot of legislation moves, so that's why it’s so critical,” he explained.

Trump should be on track to sign both crypto bills before the August break, according to Bo Hines, the executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets.

Hines noted on stage at Consensus on May 13 that negotiations on both bills are still ongoing, but it was “the President's desire” to sign both “stablecoin legislation and market structure legislation before the August recess."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 12:05

"Patience To See, Not To Guess"

By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist

Patience To See

Tech names drove the NASDAQ and S&P500 to further gains yesterday, while the Dow Jones fell for a second-straight session. Semiconductors performed especially well as fund managers caught underweight high-beta US megacaps continued a buying spree that was sparked by a 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China announced on Monday. Nvidia posted a 4.16% gain and AMD was up 4.68% as both companies inked deals with Saudi Arabia to sell more chips for AI applications. European stocks underperformed with most major indexes closing lower, and the Nikkei fell as funds flowed back into Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and China’s CSI300.

While stocks were rising, US 10-year bond yields poked back above the psychological 4.50% level to close the day up 6bps at 4.54%. 30-year Treasury yields closed half a bip below the intraday highs at 4.98%, which means that yields on both the 10-year and the 30-year are now trading above the levels that were in effect on April 9th when the Trump administration apparently cried “uncle!” in response to bond market pressure and kicked the implementation of reciprocal tariffs into the long grass for 90 days.

Perhaps we are about to find out whether it really was rising bond yields that forced the about face on those reciprocal tariffs, or if Scott Bessent has some other rabbit to pull out of his hat to force long yields lower. Rising bond yields is a problem for America’s chief bond salesman who has trillions of Dollars’ worth of debt to refinance in the months ahead. With the Fed still engaged in quantitative tightening, and enormous budget deficits still being run (despite DOGE), Bessent is going to have to work hard to sniff out other bids, and US homebuyers better hope that he can convince offshore investors that Treasuries yielding 4.5-5% are just too juicy to last. One wonders how durable the rally in long-duration tech can be while yields on long bonds are making new highs.

Fed Speakers yesterday offered no help to the Treasury Secretary by giving the impression that there is no rush to cut the Fed Funds rate any further. Mary Daly said that the Fed had to have “patience to see, not to guess”, which seems to discount the possibility of any kind of pre-emptive policy action. Daly also said that if you take a step back from all the tariff uncertainty the underlying economy is experiencing solid growth, with a strong labor market and declining inflation. That assessment might be a little bit like saying that the Dinosaurs were in really good shape if you ignore the uncertain effects of the approaching meteor. 

In the land of hard data, the US economy shrank in Q1 because of a surge in imports that could be replicated in Q2 as the 90-day reprieve on China tariffs encourages importers and retailers to “reload the gun” on goods inventories. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is the definition of a recession, but get ready for plenty of commentators to suggest that this one doesn’t really count (it wouldn’t be the first time!).

Meanwhile, President Trump continues his dealmaking tour of the Middle East where Qatar has now reportedly agreed to purchase as many as 210 new jets from Boeing. This comes off the back of the semiconductor, energy and military hardware deals signed in Saudi Arabia, Trump’s announcement that sanctions on Syria will be lifted and his meeting with the new Syrian President, who he urged to normalize relations with Israel.

It’s worth pointing out that while the markets were mostly focused on deals to sell more US chips and US energy, there were also announcements of new sanctions on companies facilitating the sale of Iranian oil to China and a new guidance issued by the Commerce Department that the use of Huawei’s Ascend AI chips “anywhere in the world” constituted a violation of US export controls. 

As this Daily noted yesterday, 90-day tariff reduction notwithstanding, what is happening in the Middle East and with trade more broadly should serve as a signal that geopolitical competition between the United States and China isn’t going away.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 11:50

Trump Very Displeased With Tim Cook's 'Made-In-India' iPhone Blitz, Wants Production In US 

Apple is turbocharging its "friend-shoring" strategy by shifting more iPhone production from China to India—a move that could soon result in American consumers purchasing iPhones made in India. However, during President Trump's Gulf tour, he expressed new concern over the supply chain shift (at least for the first time publicly), urging Apple CEO Tim Cook to re-shore some of that iPhone production to the United States. 

"I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday," Trump told reporters in Qatar on Thursday, on his latest leg of his Middle East tour. The president said his problem centers around Indian factories producing a "majority" of iPhones for the U.S.

Trump criticized Cook's plan: "I said to him,' My friend, I treated you very well. You're coming here with $500 billion, but now I hear you're building all over India.' I don't want you building in India."

As a result of their meeting, Trump said Apple will be "upping their production in the United States."

"I told Tim Cook we're not interested in you building (Apple) in India, they can take care of themselves, you up your production here (US)," claimed Trump. He added that India was one of the highest tariff-imposing countries & has now made an offer to reduce tariffs significantly… pic.twitter.com/11p9okfjTg

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18News) May 15, 2025

Earlier in the week, in the first leg of his tour, Trump praised Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, saying: "Tim Cook isn't here, but you are."

Trump's comments follow a recent Financial Times report indicating that Apple's friend-shoring strategy could result in as many as 60 million iPhones being produced in India by 2026—or the amount required to satisfy the U.S. market.

• Apple Races To Boost iPhone Production In India, Vietnam As Trump Pauses Tariffs

• Apple Turbocharges Friendshoring: Your Next iPhone Could Be Made In India

Apple does not produce smartphones in North America but has pledged to invest $500 billion in the U.S. market over the next four years.

Wall Street analysts have estimated that U.S. iPhone production would take years and cost tens of billions of dollars.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently spoke with Cook about ramping up iPhone production in the U.S. Cook told Lutnick that "robotic arms" would be needed for production lines. 

Lutnick said, "He's going to build it here," adding, "And Americans are going to be the technicians who drive those factories. They're not going to be the ones screwing it in."

Wedbush Securities recently estimated that a fully American-made iPhone could cost as much as $3,500, compared to the current average price of around $1,000. There are reports the next model could see the first price hike since the 2017 debut of the iPhone X.

Next lineup of iPhone...

Tarun Pathak, research director at tech analytics firm Counterpoint, said Trump's comments are a "familiar tactic from the president. He wants to push Apple to localize more and build a supply chain in the U.S., which is not going to happen overnight," adding, "Making in the US will also be much more expensive than assembling iPhones in India." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 11:30

Is 'Soft' Survey Data About To Explode Higher?

For all the terrified FUD being spread that 'soft' sentiment surveys are the real deal and 'hard' data is simply not reflecting the terrible Trump-tariff-driven economic chaos... yet... it appears the establishment economists may have to rethink their ideas as - just like in Q2 2023 - 'soft' survey data is starting to reverse higher as 'hard' data refuses to bend the knee to the terror...

Source: Bloomberg

The jump this morning was driven by a shocking (to some) surge in the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey which surged from -26.4 to -4.0 (considerably better than the -11.0 expected). Even more notably, the 6 months-ahead business conditions index rose by 40.3pt to +47.2.

The composition of the report was mixed, as the employment (+16.3pt to +16.5) and new orders (+41.7pt to +7.5) components both increased while the shipments component declined (-3.9pt to -13.0). 

The prices paid (+8.8pt to +59.8) and prices received (+12.9pt to +43.6) measures both increased...

And looking our six months, Prices Paid are expected to decline modestly while New Orders and Employment expectations surged...

Did we just pass peak pessimism? 

As Bloomberg reports, aggregating survey components using a method similar to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, both indexes rose and pointed toward expansion in May. 

The New York index rose to 51.1 from 49.3, and the Philadelphia index rose to 51.2 from 45.3. That suggests the ISM manufacturing PMI will likely rise in May, from April’s low base.

Will the whining establishment elites fall back to the old "just wait and see" argument... or some "transitory" argument for why suddenly optimism appears to peeking out from behind the dark cloud?

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 11:01

US Homebuilder Sentiment Slumps To Lowest Since 2023

Confidence among US homebuilders slumped in May to the lowest level since late 2023 as the NAHB sentiment index tumbled 6 points to 34 (well below the 40 expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

All three components that make up the index fell, with a measure of expected sales in the next six months sliding to an 18-month low. 

A gauge of present sales dropped to the lowest since late 2022, while traffic of prospective buyers was the weakest in 1 1/2 years.

“The spring home buying season has gotten off to a slow start as persistent elevated interest rates, policy uncertainty and building material cost factors hurt builder sentiment in May,” NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a builder and developer from Lexington, North Carolina, said in a statement.

Of course, we all know who is to blame for this...

“Policy uncertainty stemming in large part from the stop-and-start tariff issues has hurt builder confidence but the initial trade arrangements with the United Kingdom and China are a welcome development,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. 

“Still, the overall actions on tariffs in recent weeks have had a negative impact on builders, as 78% reported difficulties pricing their homes recently due to uncertainty around material prices.”

Let's not forget that new mortgage rates are still sky-high relative to 'average' existing mortgage rates and homebuilders can't afford to subsidize that difference forever...

In May, 34% of builders reported cutting prices, the largest share since December 2023, NAHB said. The share of builders reporting using sales incentives was unchanged at 61%.

The only thing is, homeBUYER sentiment has been in the shitter for months because of high rates and lack of affordability...

Maybe, homeBUILDERS are finally waking up to reality as Upton Sinclair said: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 10:45

US Factory Production Tumbled In April, But...

Headline industrial production held steady in April, driven by utilities production, while manufacturing production declined 0.4% due to decreased production of vehicles and nondurable goods.

Source: Bloomberg

The 0.4% decrease in manufacturing production (followed an upwardly revised 0.4% gain a month earlier) was the first decline since October 2024 and worse than the expected 0.3% decline...

Source: Bloomberg

However, as the chart above shows, despite the decline, upward revisions raised production by 1.2% YoY - the biggest rise since Oct 2022 (tariff-front-running?).

Output at utilities increased, while mining and energy extraction dropped.

The decrease in April factory output reflected declining production of motor vehicles, computers and apparel.

The Fed’s report showed capacity utilization at factories, a measure of potential output being used, fell to 76.8%.

Does April's decline mean we reached peak tariff-front-running? And will that drag down 'hard' data?

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 10:10

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 34, down from 40 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence

Builder confidence fell sharply in May on growing uncertainties stemming from elevated interest rates, tariff concerns, building material cost uncertainty and the cloudy economic outlook. However, 90% of the responses received in May were tabulated prior to the May 12 announcement that the United States and China agreed to slash tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks to continue.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 34 in May, down six points from April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This ties the November 2023 reading, and is the lowest since the index hit 31 in December 2022.

“The spring home buying season has gotten off to a slow start as persistent elevated interest rates, policy uncertainty and building material cost factors hurt builder sentiment in May,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “However, the overwhelming majority of survey responses came before the tariff reduction announcement with China. Builders expect future trade negotiations and progress on tax policy will help stabilize the economic outlook and strengthen housing demand.”

“Policy uncertainty stemming in large part from the stop-and-start tariff issues has hurt builder confidence but the initial trade arrangements with the United Kingdom and China are a welcome development,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Still, the overall actions on tariffs in recent weeks have had a negative impact on builders, as 78% reported difficulties pricing their homes recently due to uncertainty around material prices.”

The latest HMI survey also revealed that 34% of builders cut home prices in May, up from 29% in April and the highest level since December 2023 (36%). Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in May, unchanged from the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 61% in May, the same rate as the previous month.
...
All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in May. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell eight points in May to a level of 37, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months edged one-point lower to 42 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped two points to 23.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points to 44, the Midwest moved one point lower to 40, the South dropped two points to 37 and the West posted a two-point decline to 33.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was well below the consensus forecast.

"A Modest Request": The Supreme Court Hears Challenge To National Or Universal Injunctions

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Today, the United States Supreme Court will hear three consolidated cases in Trump v. CASA on the growing use of national or universal injunctions. This is a matter submitted on the “shadow docket” and the underlying cases concern the controversy over “birthright citizenship.” However, the merits of those claims are not at issue. Instead, the Trump Administration has made a “modest request” for the Court to limit the scope of lower-court injunctions to their immediate districts and parties, challenging the right of such courts to bind an Administration across the nation.

The case is the consolidation of three matters: Trump v. CASA out of  Maryland; Trump v. Washington out of Washington State, and Trump v. New Jersey, out of Massachusetts. These cases also present standing issues since the Administration challenges the argument that there is a cognizable “injury” to individuals who may travel to the states bringing the actions.

However, the main question is the scope of injunctions.

As I have previously written, district court judges have issued a record number of injunctions in the first 100 days of the Trump Administration. 

Under President George W. Bush, there were only six such injunctions, which increased to 12 under Obama. 

However, when Trump came to office, he faced 64 such orders in his first term.

When Biden and the Democrats returned to office, it fell back to 14. 

That was not due to more modest measures. 

Biden did precisely what Trump did in seeking to negate virtually all of his predecessors’ orders and then seek sweeping new legal reforms. He was repeatedly found to have violated the Constitution, but there was no torrent of preliminary injunctions at the start of his term.

Yet, when Trump returned to office, the number of national injunctions soared again in the first 100 days and surpassed the number for the entirety of Biden’s term.

This is a rare argument. 

First, it is a shadow docket filing that usually results in summary decisions without oral argument. Moreover, this matter came after what is commonly viewed as the final day for oral arguments. The Court granted a rare late oral argument, reflecting that multiple justices view this matter sufficiently serious to warrant a break from standard operating procedures.

Rather than arguing a “question presented” on birthright citizenship, the Administration is solely looking for limits on the district courts as appeals continue on the “important constitutional questions” raised by birthright citizenship.

The Administration argues that the Constitution does not give judges the power to issue universal injunctions and that courts are limited to addressing the cases before them in a given district. The Administration acknowledges that class actions can create the basis for universal injunctions, offering a moderate resolution to the Court. In such cases, if the parties can meet the standard for a national class, they can seek a national or universal injunction.

In today’s arguments (which I will be covering for Fox and on X), we can expect to hear from justices who have previously been critical of universal injunctions, including Justice Clarence Thomas, who, in his concurring opinion in Trump v. Hawaii, called them “legally and historically dubious.”

Likewise, Justices Gorsuch and Alito have criticized such injunctions. In a prior dissent to an emergency filing in Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition, Alito was joined by Thomas, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh in stating that the government “has a strong argument that the District Court’s order violates the principle that a federal court may not issue an equitable remedy that is ‘more burdensome than necessary to’ redress the plaintiff’s injuries.”

Many of us will be watching three members the most closely: Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Elena Kagan and Amy Coney Barrett. Roberts is the ultimate institutionalist, and we should see in his argument how he views the impact of such injunctions on the court system as a whole. He is very protective of the courts’ inherent authority but may also have misgivings about the scope of these orders.

During the Biden Administration, Justice Kagan has previously criticized universal injunctions. In an interview at Northwestern University Law School, Kagan flagged the “forum shopping” by litigants in filing cases before favorable courts:

“You look at something like that and you think, that can’t be right. In the Trump years, people used to go to the Northern District of California, and in the Biden years, they go to Texas. It just can’t be right that one district judge can stop a nationwide policy in its tracks and leave it stopped for the years that it takes to go through the normal process.”

Justice Barrett previously joined with Kavanaugh in stating that the power of district courts to enter a universal injunction “is an important question that could warrant our review in the future.”

The argument today will start at 10 am and I will be doing a running review of the arguments on X.

U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer will argue the government’s case.

Jeremy Feigenbaum, New Jersey’s solicitor general, will argue for the state and local governments and  Kelsi Corkran, the Supreme Court director at Georgetown’s Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection, will argue for the private individuals and groups.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University where he teaches a course on the Supreme Court and the Constitution.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 09:40

White House Has Presented Iran With Written Nuke Deal Proposal In Huge First

Update(10:30ET): With President Trump and his envoy having arrived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the last leg of the president's Gulf tour, new details of behind the scenes US-Iran negotiations have come to light on Thursday.

In a huge first, the Trump White House has sent Iran a written proposal toward forging a new nuclear deal. White House envoy Steve Witkoff has led several rounds of talks, and Axios has revealed that the communication was issued to Tehran last Sunday.

"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took the proposal back to Tehran for consultations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other top officials," writes Axios.

Via Associated Press

It was the Iranian side which initiated the swap of written proposals first, as the talks which have been on since April went from 'indirect' to more 'direct':

• During the third round of talks in late April, Araghchi gave Witkoff an updated document with Iranian ideas for a nuclear deal. This time, Witkoff took the document.
• A U.S. team of experts studied it and sent the Iranians a list of questions and requests for clarification. The Iranians replied and added questions of their own, two sources said.
• Meanwhile, Witkoff and his team prepared a U.S. proposal laying out the Trump administration's parameters for an Iranian civilian nuclear program and requirements for monitoring and verification, the sources said.

It appears that thus far both sides have received the other's written proposals positively, and that's what was driving President Trump's "olive branch" comments on Tuesday. He had stressed while speaking in Saudi Arabia that "this is not an offer that will last forever. The time is right now for them to choose."

President Trump followed up on Thursday by saying from Qatar,  "We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," according to AFP.

He said, "We're getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this... there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don't want to do it the second."

Trump's comments followed an NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said Tehran is prepared to sign a nuclear deal—provided key conditions are met—in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions. 

Trump reposted the NBC article indicating Iran is ready to reach a deal (though the details of that deal suggest it would look essentially identical to the JCPOA). pic.twitter.com/LPDLzqu0nd

— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) May 15, 2025

NBC News pointed out that Shamkhani's comments "appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran's expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader's inner circle." 

And the fact that written proposals have already been exchanged is yet further confirmation of this positive trend towards peace. Trump has emphasized that Iran can never have a nuclear bomb, but Tehran itself has long said it's not pursuing a nuke, and that its program is only for peaceful domestic energy purposes.

* * *

Brent crude prices fell on Thursday as geopolitical risk premiums eased following President Trump's comments during his Gulf tour, where he signaled that the U.S. is nearing a nuclear deal with Iran. Unlike earlier headlines on AI, defense, and aviation deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Trump's comments suggested a potential breakthrough in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

"We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," Trump told reporters in a press pool that AFP News first reported. 

Speaking in Doha, Qatar, during his Middle East trip, the president said, "We're getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this... there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don't want to do it the second way."

An Iranian source told Reuters that negotiations with Trump administration officials still needed to bridge some gaps before a final deal could be reached. 

Trump's comments followed an NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said Tehran is prepared to sign a nuclear deal—provided key conditions are met—in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions. 

With Trump Touring Gulf, Iran Offers Huge Nuclear Concession https://t.co/NQ4259UIsE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 14, 2025

Trump confirms reports that Iran have “sort of agreed to the terms” that they cannot have nuclear capabilities!

Trump confirms he is currently in “very serious negotiations with Iran, for long-term peace”!

Trump also highlights how “many people” want war with Iran, but that he… pic.twitter.com/rVSkScNRIN

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) May 15, 2025

NBC News pointed out that Shamkhani's comments "appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran's expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader's inner circle." 

Trump has offered "an olive branch" to Tehran after a multi-month maximum-pressure campaign, including economic sanctions and deploying long-range stealth bombers to America's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" - located in the Indian Ocean - ready to be deployed at a moment's notice.

However, last week, ahead of Trump's Gulf tour, we spotted at least one of these stealth bombers returning to the U.S. We suggested this may have been an act of goodwill ahead of talks by the U.S. or possibly just a routine flight.  

On Thursday, Brent crude futures fell 3% to $60 a barrel on expectations that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal would ease sanctions and increase crude oil on international markets.

"The overnight development of a possible nuclear deal is the sole reason for the morning's weakness. If an agreement is reached, Iran agrees to halt enriching weapon grade uranium and the deal is effectively enforced, which is hard to believe, then the Persian Gulf country's crude oil exports can rise by as much as 1 [million barrels per day]," PVM analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC in an emailed statement. 

"It sounds price negative, but its impact will possibly be mitigated by OPEC+ rolling back on its plan to release barrels back to the market faster than originally planned," he added.

Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky commented on the development: 

Staying with geopolitics there are some rather positive stories emanating out of Iran. "Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions, a top adviser to Iran's supreme leader told NBC News on Wednesday." Unclear if the U.S. will agree to the terms but they seem fairly broad: "He said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium which can be weaponized, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran." (NBC news) If confirmed I think oil could eventually end up heading back to the recent lows and I would continue to express any cyclical concerns in this space.

Here's the latest commentary from UBS traders:

Oil Equity Resilience Amid Oil Price Drop Oil prices are down, mainly because of a potential deal with Iran. That could mean up to 500kb/d increased supply coming to market very quickly. Oil equities, however, are already underweight for generalists and specialists have already de-grossed, following the OPEC+ surprises so far this year - hence oil equities are proving to be relatively resilient even though the oil price is down.

If Trump secures a nuclear deal with Tehran, it would cap off a week of landmark agreements with Gulf nations—collectively worth trillions—and add to an already bullish news cycle for the president. Also, this would mean continued easing of geopolitical risk premiums in the region, in other words, lower energy prices for Trump to pursue his 'America First' agenda.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 09:19