Individual Economists

Princeton Joins Move Back To Standardized Testing

Zero Hedge -

Princeton Joins Move Back To Standardized Testing

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Princeton University announced this week that it will be reinstating the requirement for undergraduate applicants to submit standardized test scores in the 2027–28 admissions cycle. It is only the latest reversal for an ill-conceived and poorly supported movement to achieve greater equity and diversity by eliminating standardized testing in higher education.

Years ago, I wrote columns on the move by many academics to eliminate standardized testing to achieve greater diversity in colleges and universities.

I have long been a critic of this movement given the overwhelming evidence that these tests allow an objective measure of academic merit and have great predictive value on the performance of students.

The University of California system was an early supporter of this ridiculous move.

Notably, academics in the California system came to the same conclusion as some of us who denounced the move. These tests not only have the most significant predictive value for performance but also play an important role in the advancement of minority students. University of California President Janet Napolitano, however, overrode those conclusions.

Napolitano responded to such criticism with a Standardized Testing Task Force in 2019. 

Many people expected the task force to recommend the cessation of standardized testing.

The task force did find that 59 percent of high school graduates were Latino, African-American or Native American but only 37 percent were admitted as UC freshman students.

The Task Force did not find standardized testing to be unreliable or call for its abandonment, however.

Instead, its final report concluded that “At UC, test scores are currently better predictors of first-year GPA than high school grade point average (HSGPA), and about as good at predicting first-year retention, [University] GPA, and graduation.”

Not only that, it found: “Further, the amount of variance in student outcomes explained by test scores has increased since 2007 … Test scores are predictive for all demographic groups and disciplines … In fact, test scores are better predictors of success for students who are Underrepresented Minority Students (URMs), who are first generation, or whose families are low-income.” In other words, test scores remain the best indicator for continued performance in college.

That clearly was not the result Napolitano or some others wanted. So, she simply announced a cessation of the use of such scores in admissions. The system would go to a “test-blind” system until it developed its own test.

Ending standardized testing had an obvious secondary purpose in frustrating new legal challenges on the use of race in college admissions.

Last November, Californians rejected a resolution to restore affirmative action in college admissions.

MIT, Penn, Yale, Dartmouth, Brown, and other schools ultimately reverted to standardized testing. The fact that these schools even joined this movement shows how faculties and administrators jettisoned educational standards for popular causes.

While originally rationalized due to COVID, the move was widely heralded as a victory for equity and diversity. Notably, the policy outlasted COVID as many academics rejected standardized testing as racist. There have even been calls for random selection of students to achieve greater racial diversity.

In the case of Princeton, the faculty took years to give itself sufficient cover to return to standardized testing by studying the obvious. The announcement comes after a five-year review of data, showing that students who submitted test scores generally performed better academically at Princeton than those who did not.

Just as with earlier studies, a new working paper published on the National Bureau of Economic Research website finds that standardized test scores are stronger predictors of college performance than high school GPA, even after controlling for race, gender, and socioeconomic status.

GPA scores are notoriously unreliable due to grade inflation and varying standards across different schools. In San Francisco, “grading for equity” is a goal in public schools.

The slipping standards recently became evident when Harvard had to create a course to teach basic high school math to its students.

Columbia remains the last Ivy League holdout in dispensing with mandatory standardized testing.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 15:45

JPMorgan Commits $1.5 Trillion To Strengthen America’s Industrial Base

Zero Hedge -

JPMorgan Commits $1.5 Trillion To Strengthen America’s Industrial Base

JPMorgan Chase announced a sweeping $1.5 trillion, decade-long initiative to finance and invest in industries central to U.S. economic and national security, committing up to $10 billion of its own capital to select American companies, according to reporting by Reuters on Monday.

The bank is the latest to "fall in line" behind President Trump's continued focus on national security while safeguarding trade and production domestically. 

The plan will channel funds into four core areas — supply chain and manufacturing, defense and aerospace, energy independence, and frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. JPMorgan will expand research through its Center for Geopolitics, hire additional bankers, and form an external advisory council to guide the effort.

“This is a JPMorgan initiative,” Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said, stressing that it is “100% commercial” and not driven by the Trump administration.

Sure Jamie. Wink, wink. 

It's probably just a coincidence then that the announcement follows rising trade tensions with China and renewed U.S. efforts to secure critical industries such as semiconductors, minerals, and clean energy.

“It has become painfully clear that the U.S. has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing – all of which are essential for our national security,” Dimon said. “Our security is predicated on the strength and resiliency of America’s economy. America needs more speed and investment.”

Reuters reported that Dimon called for policy changes to remove “excessive regulations, bureaucratic delay, partisan gridlock and an education system not aligned to the skills we need,” urging unity in facing the nation’s “immense challenges.” “We need to act now,” he said.

JPMorgan’s “security and resiliency initiative” will include direct equity and venture capital investments in companies building technologies for defense, AI-driven energy systems, semiconductors, and data centers. “Our support of clients in these industries remains unwavering,” Dimon added.

The announcement comes amid growing debate over artificial intelligence and its economic impact. Dimon told the BBC that while AI will “pay off,” much like the early car and television industries, “most people involved in them didn’t do well.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 15:25

Big Government, No Growth - The Implosion Of Statism

Zero Hedge -

Big Government, No Growth - The Implosion Of Statism

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Rising government spending and public debt create economic stagnation and declining living standards. Many citizens believe that the state will give them prosperity and equality. However, the state only makes paper promises by issuing debt, creating a constantly depreciated currency. Taxpayers are constantly expropriated, while the recipients of subsidies become a dependent subclass. Who wins? Bureaucrats.

Deficit spending is not a tool for growth. It erodes prosperity, creates persistent secular stagnation, real wage growth decline, and poor productivity growth.

High public spending and government debt falsely inflate GDP through government outlays while, in most cases, masking a private-sector recession underneath. GDP is easily manipulated by increasing government spending and changing the calculation of GDP deflators.

The state issues debt, a form of currency, and establishes a system that continuously suffocates the productive sector. In effect, GDP and CPI serve as measures of economic strength that obscure the imbalances created by the state; GDP overstates real growth by incorporating government spending financed by debt, while CPI, like the GDP deflator, underestimates the currency’s loss of purchasing power.

Major economies face a hidden real recession for households and small businesses using “robust” headline figures bloated by ever-rising government debt. Every new dollar of debt now generates less than sixty cents of nominal GDP in the U.S. However, when we look at countries like Japan, France, the UK or Germany, the multiplier effect of new government debt is either nonexistent or negative. The consequences are evident: true productive economic expansion is hurt by rising taxes, regulatory burdens, and inflation, which reduce incentives for private investment and innovation.

Statism creates enormous disincentives for productive investment and promotes malinvestment and the constant transfer of wealth from the productive sectors to the government. Governments finance their ever-expanding budgets in privileged conditions, creating a crowding out of the private sector that suffers the consequences of persistent inflation and raising taxes.

Remember that high taxes are not a tool to reduce debt but to justify it.

Despite political messages promoting growth and stability, statism results in low productivity growth, which in turn causes declining real wage growth and diminishing purchasing power as governments overheat economies by issuing more currency than the private sector demands while maintaining unsustainable public accounts. Persistent inflation is the systemic result of chronic government overspending and central bank easing to sustain sovereign debt bubbles.

Ironically, many citizens hail politicians and governments who promise to lower inflation by printing more currency through subsidies and government programmes. Governments promise to solve the problems they create, paving the road to serfdom.

Capitalism and social media do not cause inequality and discontent. Governments create inequality in its most severe form, which arises from political favouritism.

Artificial creation of currency is never neutral. It disproportionately benefits the first recipient of new money and governments and hurts the last recipients, wages, and deposit savings.

Workers and the middle class cannot protect themselves against the stealth expropriation of the economy. Those with financial means hedge against currency debasement through asset investments, while wage earners and deposit savers suffer the hidden tax of inflation and the erosion of purchasing power.

The hidden costs of public debt are more evident than ever: governments absorb available credit, banks become reluctant to lend to productive private enterprises, genuine investment suffers, and job creation and long-term productivity weaken. Instead of fuelling sustainable growth, government borrowing absorbs capital to bloat the administration machine and promote asset bubbles. Small and medium enterprises face constant penalties while malinvestment thrives.

Keynesian policies promise prosperity through endless spending, and when it does not work, they always say that they did not spend enough. However, the promises of eternal government expansion meet the reality of the economic, fiscal, and inflationary limits, which have already been surpassed in most developed economies. Tax hikes generate diminishing receipt improvements, while productive investment is penalised. Additionally, debt accumulation meets a loss of investor confidence and erosion of currency stability. Thus, with persistent inflation, the purchasing power of the currency deteriorates.

By manipulating interest rates and maintaining elevated public outlays, governments create a stealthy nationalisation of the economy and a slow-motion crisis. This leads to a gradual decline in both purchasing power and living standards.

The solution is to diminish the power of the state, promote sound money, strengthen the private sector, favour entrepreneurship, and make systematic cuts to government spending. Only by refocusing on genuine market-led investment and trimming bureaucratic overhead can economies escape stagnation, restore real wage growth, and revive productivity. Without decisive spending restraint, citizens remain trapped in a vicious cycle of dependency, currency devaluation, and impoverishment.

Rising government spending and public debt do not deliver productive growth. They create stagnation.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 15:05

Mark Cuban-Backed Startup Lets 'Low FICO' People Tap Used Car Equity - Even If Not Paid Off - For 30% APR

Zero Hedge -

Mark Cuban-Backed Startup Lets 'Low FICO' People Tap Used Car Equity - Even If Not Paid Off - For 30% APR

While Mark Cuban may be a 'benevolent pill merchant' - providing low-income Americans with cheap prescription drugs, the 'Shark Tank' billionaire just helped raise $50 million for a Series B round in a Dallas-based financial technology firm that lets people with terrible credit scores tap into the equity in their depreciating used cars at a 30% interest rate - even if it's not paid off - in which case the entire auto loan is transferred)

The startup, Yendo Inc., makes it even easier to squeeze blood from that stone. After signing up, the company issues the borrower a credit card - which incurs an additional 3% fee if used at an ATM to pull cash out. 

[Yendo] offers credit cards backed by vehicle equity to help customers get access to credit who may not be able to otherwise due to low FICO scores. The credit card functions like a normal card. Instead of a cash deposit, it's secured by the value of a person’s car. -Dallas Business Journal

In addition to Cuban - an early investor in the company, Yendo received funding from Spice Expeditions, Autotech Ventures, FPV Ventures, Pelion Venture Partners and Clocktower Technology Ventures. As Dallas Business Journal notesSpice Expeditions founder Nick Huber will join Yendo's board, along with Lyft co-founder Logan Green. 

Founded in 2021, the company will use the funding to build an AI-powered digital bank that will decrease onboarding and operating costs - allowing them to focus on "opening doors for underserved Americans." The company says that there's more than $4 trillion in "untapped assets held by nonprime Americans.

Last May, the company raised $165 million in new capital - much if it debt, to increase lending through its asset-backed credit cards. Read more about their history here.

Also - for some reason all of Yendo's advertising shows black people using their lending: 

Mela from Phoenix, AZ "hardly had to leave the couch" to tap into her car's equity. And apparently one of the highest interest rates on the planet "worked great" for her budget. 

So, basically targeting the people screwed over in the Tricolor collapse. 

h/t Capital.news

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Countertop RO Filter - been flying off the shelf, probably because we're undercutting everyone else on price (shh). Will have to raise that soon. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 14:45

Victor Hanson: The Pieces Of Trump's Peace

Zero Hedge -

Victor Hanson: The Pieces Of Trump's Peace

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

What did Donald Trump do differently to obtain at least temporary calm in the Middle East compared to the failed efforts of past administrations, foreign powers, and the United Nations?

Let us count ten different approaches.

1. Trump curtailed a considerable amount of Iranian oil income and its dispersal. He stopped, for the near future, the Iranian effort to build a bomb. Trump also allowed Israel to destroy Tehran’s air defenses, humiliate it militarily, and eliminate many of its top military officers and nuclear physicists. Thus, Israel’s half-century-long worries about Iranian nukes were addressed. At the same time, its stature as a military power soared to an all-time high—even if it became more isolated politically. Israel became more confident but also more sensitive to past, current, and future American military and political support—or pressure.

2. Trump allowed Netanyahu to destroy Hamas, cripple Hezbollah, and retaliate at will against the Houthis. That liberation led to general dejection among Israel’s enemies and a resurgence in Netanyahu’s own political fortunes. And that rise of Israel and the collapse of the Iranian terrorist network—the “ring of fire”— explain the greater chances for a ceasefire and possibly a peace. Trump allowed no daylight between Israel and the U.S., which, under the Biden administration, may have sent the wrong signals to Hamas prior to October 7.

So there is now no terrorist Palestinian leader, such as a Yasser Arafat or an all-powerful Hamas killer, to sandbag negotiations. Instead, Trump involved a number of self-interested surrogate Arab officials who have the money and influence to rebuild Gaza and restore calm on their own terms. Trump and Israel are not just negotiating from positions of historic strength, but they have also empowered the reasonable Arab nations to have honor and clout in Middle East negotiations in an unprecedented fashion.

3. Trump also leveraged all his benefactions to Israel by pressuring it to agree to a ceasefire.

Even the optics of a strong Israeli leader conceding to Trump that there would be no annexation of the West Bank gave the U.S. credibility in the Arab world as an honest broker and yet paradoxically helped Israel’s global reputation—as well as Netanyahu’s—as a more flexible negotiator.

4. Trump used the Abraham Accords and his much-maligned tariffs, along with expanding or curtailing commercial access into U.S. markets, to pressure—or persuade—the Gulf and moderate Arab states to ensure funding for Gaza reconstruction and the continued political weakening of Hamas. There is a sense in the Middle East, as elsewhere, that when it comes to new technologies such as AI, robotics, genetic engineering, and cryptocurrencies, the U.S. will remain the global leader, and thus a nation to court and please.

5. Trump, in carrot-and-stick fashion, promised a defense protection pact with Qatar—the proverbial untrusted wild card of the Middle East.

But his new quid pro quo “protectorate” also implied reining in Qatar if it should resume its customary double-dealing that so infuriates its neighbors and increasingly enrages the West. The Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, and the signal Israel could strike again at will, terrified Qatar and drove it to seek protection in—new dependency on—the U.S.

6. Trump dealt with enemies, allies, and neutrals from a position of strength, comparative advantage, and national ascendance, unlike the appeasing and anemic Biden years or the apologetics of Obama. The successful complex bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities and the past elimination of terrorist Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and ISIS founder and thug Bakr al-Baghdadi ensured Trump was seen as more serious than either Obama or Biden ever were.

The Arab world and Israel also understood that there are no alternatives to Trump. Russia’s Syrian outpost is gone. Moscow is bogged down in a forever war in Ukraine and under sanctions. It is no longer a force in the Middle East.

Trump has confronted China and exposed its economic vulnerabilities, ensuring that the Arabs saw no outside power comparable to the U.S.

Chinese and Russian allies, like the Iranian theocracy and the former Assad dynasty in Syria, were also shown over the last year to be shrill, impotent, losing clients. At home, restoring the U.S. border, strengthening NATO, rebooting the U.S. military, fast-tracking energy development, and cracking down on crime fed the impression of an American renaissance rather than the continued Obama-Biden-managed decline.

7. Trump was entirely transactional. Unlike the Biden administration, he did not libel the Saudis, or demonize Netanyahu, or take seriously any of the past proverbial empty “peace plans” of a corrupt UN or of terrified Europeans. He had no sooner destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability than he allowed a ceremonial but innocuous “hit” on a U.S. base in Qatar and then declared he wanted to “make Iran great again.” For someone who is supposedly mercurial, holds grudges, and is reckless, Trump was careful to treat all the major parties with deference and a clean slate and offered them trade and military deals rather than diplomatese and platitudes.

8. Europe went from sandbagging Trump in 2017 to 2021 to calling him “daddy” once they realized that only Trump could save Ukraine and, by extension, Europe from Putin. The result was not an anti-American Europe trying to intrude into the Middle East negotiations or ankle-biting the U.S. To the degree that Europeans save face, it is by symbolically recognizing a Palestinian state, but not materially altering realities on the ground in Gaza.

For the most part, there is now a calmer Europe, relieved that Iran was denuclearized and the Palestinian terrorists in the Middle East might no longer trigger unrest among Europe’s own restive and unassimilated Muslim populations.

9. At this 11th hour, Hamas was reminded that it has no real alternatives—as the rubble of Gaza attests. Trump signaled to Israel that it could and can still go medieval on Hamas and its remnants should they resume terrorism.

Otherwise, Gaza remains a bombed-out wreck. Qatar will be pressured to kick out its conniving Hamas billionaires. The result is a stark choice: any Hamas attempt to rebuild its terrorist networks will ensure that it—and everything around it—will be moonscaped. Trump made it clear there are now no more sacred cows in the Middle East, no more safe spaces, and no more off-limits targets—juxtaposed to numerous win-win incentives that can lead to prosperity and security.

10. The Middle East was not seen as a one-off U.S. peace effort—as is usually the case. Instead, it was envisioned as a continuation of a series of prior successful Trump-led ceasefires between Rwanda and Congo, Armenia and Azerbaijan, India and Pakistan, Kosovo and Serbia, Cambodia and Thailand, and Egypt and Ethiopia. The Israelis and the Palestinians saw Trump’s success elsewhere and may have felt from such momentum that the same might be possible in Gaza.

And if the ceasefire holds, or at least reduces the violence, global attention will next turn to Ukraine.

Expectations in and outside the Middle East will rise that if there can be quiet in war-torn Gaza, then that momentum might lead to progress toward peace on the Ukrainian border as well.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 14:25

Beyond Meat Crashes On Debt-Swap Plan As Fake Food Trend Goes Bust 

Zero Hedge -

Beyond Meat Crashes On Debt-Swap Plan As Fake Food Trend Goes Bust 

Fake food company Beyond Meat (NASDAQ: BYND) crashed the most on record today after it announced that nearly all creditors agreed to a debt-swap deal that massively dilutes equity shareholders.

BYND wrote in a press release that 96.92% of holders of its 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 agreed to participate in the debt-equity swap offer, clearing the 85% threshold required for the deal to proceed. 

Under the terms, BYND will issue up to $202.5 million of new 7% Convertible Senior Secured Second Lien PIK Toggle Notes due 2030 and up to 326.2 million new shares of common stock. The exchange aims to reduce leverage and extend debt maturities. 

The transaction, while providing liquidity relief, will heavily dilute existing equity owners and underscores Beyond Meat's struggle to turn the sinking ship amid plunging sales and waning market share in the fake food space.  

In markets, BYND shares in New York crashed the most on record...

...down as much as 58%. Shares of the fake meat company began trading in a 2019 IPO. 

Fake meat has been an utter bust, even after years of globalist billionaires and their allies in the fake news media tried to persuade the world that real food is bad and fake food is good.

Related:

Eat real food.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 14:05

Bubble Creation - Friday's Crypto-Carnage As A Canary

Zero Hedge -

Bubble Creation - Friday's Crypto-Carnage As A Canary

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via gnseconomics.com,

On Friday, the largest market liquidation in crypto-market history occurred after President Trump posted on social media, threatening China with 100% tariffs.

Some investors lost their whole portfolio before Mr. President reversed course with a social media entry downplaying the risks.

Those who lost their life savings in yet another crypto-carnage could blame President Trump, and you would be correct, partially. Yet, this figure presents the primary reason we’re here.

Figure 1. The balance sheet of the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China as a share of gross domestic product of the world. Source: GnS Economics, BoJ, ECB, Fed, PBoC, IMF

I have not really cared to update the graph anymore, but due to the asset roll-off of the Federal Reserve, the share has most likely dropped a bit (see the share that includes all major central banks). That is also not the main point here, but what happened before 2021.

Figure 2. Total assets of the Federal Reserve. Source: St. Louis Fed.

For a very long time, the assets (securities) held by the central banks grew modestly. Unless there was a crisis, the assets usually were below 10% of GDP. Not anymore.

The monetary meddling of the central banks after the GFC led to a massive increase in the money in circulation. This is the most update data on M2 money (“broad money”) in circulation in the world.1 I’ve added a few key policy actions to clarify the message conveyed by the graph.

Figure 3. M2 money as a share of GDP in the world. Source: GnS Economics, IMF.

After the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system, where currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, which was pegged to gold, between 1971 and 1976, the amount of money has grown rapidly. The first “Fed easing” shown in the figure refers to the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates after the shock delivered by Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, which was enacted to curb the runaway inflation caused by the oil shocks of the 1980s. Interest rates in the U.S. reached their peak in the vicinity of 20% in June 1981, after which they were cut to under 10% in two years.

The Dot-com bubble, its implosion, and the lowering of the interest rates from 6.5% to less than 2% in just a year by Fed Chair Alan Greenspan delivered another impulse to the supply of money. However, the major turn came in the Great Financial Crisis and the quantitative easing (securities purchase programs) launched after. They transformed central banks into active participants not only in money creation, a traditionally exclusive role for commercial banks, but also in the markets. I have detailed the (detrimental) effects of these policies in two Epoch Times articles (this and this).

However, the most significant shock came in the spring of 2020. From my Epoch Times piece:

In March 2020, the coronavirus outbreak was freaking out the markets, and on March 16, 2020, they crashed. The volatility index reached 82.69, the highest on record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 2997 points, or 12.9 percent—the worst point drop on record.

On the 16th, the New York Fed announced that it will add $500 billion in the over-night loans to repo-market. On the 17th, the Fed announced that it would use $1 trillion to mob up corporate paper from issuers. On the 18th, the European Central Bank announced that it would buy 750 billion euros worth of bonds and securities. On the 19th, the Fed announced that it would create lending facility to money market mutual funds. On March 25, 2020, interest rates of short-term corporate debt surged to 2.43 percent above the federal-funds rate, the over-night lending rate of the Fed, which led the central bank to issue a program targeted at the corporate markets.

At the end of May 2020, the Fed backstopped “repo” and U.S. Treasury markets, intervened in corporate commercial-paper and municipal bond markets and short-term money-markets, and bought corporate bond ETFs, including some speculative-grade, or “junk,” corporate debt. It also launched its “Main Street Lending” program, where it provided loans to middle-market businesses. Alas, come June 2020, the Fed had become the financial markets of the United States. The bailout operations enacted by Greenspan had reached the point where the fears that the creation of the Fed would ‘socialize’ the economy had materialized.

So, yes, you lost your money, partly because of the reckless tweeting of President Trump, but mostly because central banks have become active players in the economy, printing massive amounts of money, destroying the risk-and-reward relationship.

This is how enormous bubbles form, and they will eventually burst.

The main takeaway from the above is that central banks will, most likely, uphold the bubble by any means necessary, because if they did not, their credibility would be shattered.

While many market commentators are currently (still) celebrating the rally, it would not take long for them to identify the true culprits behind the “exuberance,” that is, the central banks.

The outcome would, (again) most likely be the end of the modern central banks, and while I would welcome such a development, many are very afraid of what it would imply (more on that later).

GnS Economics Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 13:00

Heavily-Shorted Grindr Erupts On Take-Private Report 

Zero Hedge -

Heavily-Shorted Grindr Erupts On Take-Private Report 

Shares of the LGBTQ+ dating app Grindr surged around midday in New York after a Semafor report, citing company insiders, said they are "discussing taking the company private after a stock slide forced its owners into a precarious personal financial position."

The report says the two controlling shareholders, Raymond Zage and James Lu, are in talks to secure debt financing from Fortress Investment Group to buy out Grindr.

Before the Semafor's report was published, the dating app company had a market capitalization of about $2.4 billion

Here's more about the potential buyout deal:

Zage and Lu have discussed a buyout price of around $15 a share, some of the people said, cautioning that number could change. A deal at that price would value the company at around $3 billion.

Before the report hit the wires, shares were down 30.5% year-to-date. Afterward, the stock jumped 16%.

It's important to note that the float is 32.5% short, equivalent to about 10.5 million shares, with 5.3 days to cover.

More from Semafor:

Any deal would likely carry national-security implications. Grindr was originally owned by a Chinese firm, which sold it in 2020 after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States raised concerns about sensitive personal data — which could be used in blackmail attempts — being accessed by Beijing. Zage, a US expat who is now a Singaporean national, surpassed 50% ownership of Grindr just last month through stock buybacks. Lu is a Chinese-born US citizen, according to the South China Morning Post.

Taking Grindr private could arrest a stock slide that appears to have little to do with the company's financial performance: Profits were up 25% in the second quarter from a year ago, but the stock has fallen more than 20% since late September. Grindr went public in 2022 through a blank-check company.

Corporate filings show that Zage and Lu, who together owned more than 60% of Grindr's shares as of June, had pledged nearly all of their stock for personal loans. That lender, the people said, is SeaTown Holdings, a unit of Temasek, which seized the shares last week after the loans became undercollateralized.

Short squeeze?

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 12:40

The Next Nuclear Story Stock: ASP Isotopes Shares Surge After Supply Contract For Silicon-28 And U.S. Radiopharmacy Acquisition

Zero Hedge -

The Next Nuclear Story Stock: ASP Isotopes Shares Surge After Supply Contract For Silicon-28 And U.S. Radiopharmacy Acquisition

ASP Isotopes, a name we pointed out to our subscribers about one week ago, is up more than 13% this morning after it issued a business update that highlights how well-positioned it is across both technology and medical applications.

ASP announced its largest-ever supply contract for enriched silicon-28 and a strategic acquisition of a U.S.-based radiopharmacy — two moves that deepen its exposure to the fast-growing quantum computing and nuclear medicine markets.

This morning the company said it “entered into a supply contract with a U.S.-based customer for enriched silicon-28, with deliveries expected during Q1 2026,” calling it “the Company’s largest silicon-28 contract to date.”

Enriched silicon-28 is a critical material for quantum computing and advanced semiconductor architectures. As the company explained, “By removing the nuclear spin noise present in natural silicon, enriched silicon-28 provides a pristine environment for qubits, dramatically improving coherence times and overall device performance.” This makes the material foundational for scalable, fault-tolerant quantum processors — the building blocks of the quantum computing revolution.

Chief Commercial Officer Viktor Petkov emphasized the growing demand: “This significant customer order for silicon-28 underscores how our Electronic Gases strategy is gaining real traction across multiple end markets. Enriched silicon is emerging as a cornerstone material not only for quantum computing but also for high-precision semiconductor and photonics applications. Our goal is to become the world’s most reliable supplier of enriched silane and other isotopically pure gases — a foundation for the technologies driving the next industrial revolution.”

In addition to its quantum-related progress, the company announced its first U.S. acquisition in nuclear medicine — the purchase of an independent radiopharmacy in Florida to complement and expand PET Labs, its South African radiopharmaceutical operation. The acquisition is “expected to be accretive to 2026 revenues, EBITDA and EPS,” and marks PET Labs’ first step beyond South Africa. The Florida facility currently offers SPECT services, with PET Labs planning to add PET services by 2027 to expand diagnostic capabilities and revenue.

ASP’s proprietary Aerodynamic Separation Process (ASP Technology) allows it to enrich both light and heavy isotopes, giving it reach across multiple critical trillion-dollar markets. The company is targeting demand “for isotopes such as Silicon-28, which will enable quantum computing, and Molybdenum-100, Molybdenum-98, Zinc-68, Ytterbium-176, and Nickel-64 for new, emerging healthcare applications, as well as Chlorine-37, Lithium-6, and Uranium-235 for green energy applications.”

As global supply chains for strategic materials tighten, ASP Isotopes’ position at the intersection of advanced computing, nuclear medicine, and clean energy could make it one of the most strategically valuable small-cap names in the sector.

ASPI remains one of our favorite names in the nuclear space — and a company we believe stands to benefit meaningfully from two of the most powerful macro themes ahead: the Trump administration’s stated interest in taking stakes in key U.S. commodity and energy suppliers, and the AI boom’s insatiable need for power, which we think will increasingly have to come from nuclear.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 12:20

MIT Says It Will Not Sign Trump Admin's Higher Education Compact

Zero Hedge -

MIT Says It Will Not Sign Trump Admin's Higher Education Compact

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has declined to sign onto the Trump administration’s proposed compact, which would mandate campus reforms in exchange for preferential access to federal funding.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) campus in Cambridge, Mass., on May 25, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

MIT President Sally Kornbluth announced the decision on Oct. 10 in a campus-wide letter attaching her formal response to Education Secretary Linda McMahon, who invited nine universities to sign the new agreement.

The proposed “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” would require participating universities to freeze tuition for five years, limit international student enrollment, and adopt the federal government’s biology-based definitions of sex and gender when it comes to sports or single-sex spaces.

Other provisions call for reinstating the SAT requirement for applicants, curbing grade inflation, prohibiting the use of race and sex as factors in admissions or employment, and reforming or dismantling departments that “purposefully punish, belittle, and even spark violence against conservative ideas.”

MIT ‘Cannot Support the Proposed Approach’

In her response, Kornbluth acknowledged that MIT shares some of the administration’s stated goals, such as focusing on merit, reducing costs for students, and upholding free expression.

“These values and other MIT practices meet or exceed many standards outlined in the document you sent. We freely choose these values because they’re right, and we live by them because they support our mission—work of immense value to the prosperity, competitiveness, health, and security of the United States. And of course, MIT abides by the law,” Kornbluth wrote.

She also noted that MIT disagreed with a number of the demands, saying that they “would restrict freedom of expression and our independence as an institution” and that the premise of the document is inconsistent with MIT’s core belief that “scientific funding should be based on scientific merit alone.”

“In our view, America’s leadership in science and innovation depends on independent thinking and open competition for excellence,” Kornbluth wrote.

“In that free marketplace of ideas, the people of MIT gladly compete with the very best, without preferences. Therefore, with respect, we cannot support the proposed approach to addressing the issues facing higher education.”

MIT is the first of the nine universities invited to join the compact to publicly reject it. The administration also invited Brown University, Dartmouth College, the University of Arizona, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Southern California, the University of Texas at Austin, the University of Virginia, and Vanderbilt University.

It’s unclear why those particular institutions were chosen or whether other schools will be offered the same terms.

The Department of Education did not respond to requests for comment from The Epoch Times by publication time.

Mixed Reactions Across Invited Schools

Dartmouth and UPenn have publicly addressed the compact, emphasizing their commitment to academic autonomy, but stopping short of outright rejecting it.

Dartmouth president Sian Leah Beilock, for example, wrote that she was “deeply committed to Dartmouth’s academic mission and values and will always defend our fierce independence,” adding that the university “will never compromise our academic freedom and our ability to govern ourselves.”

UPenn President J. Larry Jameson, meanwhile, said he would seek input from the campus community, including the Ivy League school’s trustees and faculty, before making any decision on the compact.

By contrast, University of Texas System Board of Regents Chairman Kevin Eltife, a former Republican state senator, said that the university was “honored” to be among those selected and that the board would “review the compact immediately.”

“We welcome the new opportunity presented to us, and we look forward to working with the Trump administration on it,” Eltife said in a statement to student newspaper The Daily Texan.

Democratic States Threaten Funding Cuts

Some Democratic state leaders have moved to discourage universities from signing the compact by threatening to withhold funding.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has warned that any institution in his state that signs the agreement would lose state funding, including access to Cal Grants, the state’s largest financial aid program.

In Virginia, Democrats in the state Senate issued a similar warning to the University of Virginia, threatening “significant consequences in future Virginia budget cycles” if the university joined the compact.

The UVA responded with a noncommittal statement, as reported by the student newspaper The Cavalier Daily, reiterating that its decisions would be guided by the university’s founding principles of integrity and academic freedom.

A pair of Pennsylvania lawmakers have also said they want to bar colleges that receive state funding from signing onto the compact.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 12:00

Broadcom Shares Soar On 10-Gigawatt Chip Deal With OpenAI 

Zero Hedge -

Broadcom Shares Soar On 10-Gigawatt Chip Deal With OpenAI 

Shares of Broadcom surged early in the U.S. cash session after the chip designer signed a multiyear agreement with Sam Altman's OpenAI to co-develop 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators and systems, marking a strategic move toward vertically integrated AI infrastructure such as data centers. This follows recent deals between the ChatGPT creator and both Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, and comes less than two weeks after we described the stunning math behind AI vendor financing, calling it an epic "circle jerk."

"Broadcom's collaboration with OpenAI signifies a pivotal moment in the pursuit of artificial general intelligence," Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stated in a press release, adding, "OpenAI has been in the forefront of the AI revolution since the ChatGPT moment, and we are thrilled to co-develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of next- generation accelerators and network systems to pave the way for the future of AI."

Here are the highlights of the Broadcom-OpenAI deal:

  • Partnership Overview: OpenAI and Broadcom announced a major collaboration to co-develop 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators, marking a strategic move toward vertically integrated AI infrastructure.

  • Custom Chip Design: OpenAI will design its own AI accelerators and system architecture, embedding insights from developing frontier models directly into hardware to boost performance and efficiency.

  • Broadcom Role: Broadcom will develop and deploy the systems using its Ethernet, PCIe, and optical connectivity solutions, scaling racks designed to meet the global surge in AI computing demand across OpenAI's facilities and partner data centers.

  • Strategic Importance: The initiative allows OpenAI to reduce dependence on third-party chips (e.g., Nvidia) and tailor hardware to its unique model workloads, while Broadcom cements its leadership in AI networking and semiconductor solutions.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman commented on the partnership, saying, "Partnering with Broadcom is a critical step in building the infrastructure needed to unlock AI's potential and deliver real benefits for people and businesses. Developing our own accelerators adds to the broader ecosystem of partners all building the capacity required to push the frontier of AI to provide benefits to all humanity."

In September, Nvidia announced plans to supply at least 10 gigawatts of its AI systems to power OpenAI's next-generation infrastructure for training and deploying future models. As part of the agreement, Nvidia committed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, with the funds disbursed incrementally as each gigawatt of capacity comes online.

Nvidia announced another partnership last week, this time with AMD, for six gigawatts' worth of chips, starting with the Instinct MI450 series. Unlike the deal with Nvidia, OpenAI has a warrant to purchase 160 million shares of AMD's stock that translates to just under 10% of AMD, based on the number of outstanding shares.

We made this circular scheme famous earlier this month:

In markets, Broadcom shares jumped nearly 10%. Year to date, shares are up 48%. 

Like clockwork, yet another AI deal rolls out, blowing the AI bubble even further.

Hm. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 11:40

For Many, This Recession Will Feel Like A Depression

Zero Hedge -

For Many, This Recession Will Feel Like A Depression

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The conventional means to drag the economy out of recession have all reached their limits and will no longer work as anticipated.

We’re often told this time it’s different, and this time, it’s true--but not in the way those issuing the claim expect.

I’m often dismissed as a doomer, and I interpret this as a reflection of the accusers’ intense commitment to The Fairy Tale version of the economy, in which a new technological or financial “innovation” enables us to consume more of everything forever and ever.

As you’ll see, what’s presented here are data--facts. How we interpret them is up to us, and this explains the profound need of apologists to distort or ignore the data to follow The Fairy Tale narrative.

The primary means of distorting data is to lump all 135 million US households / 340 million residents into one bucket. In doing so, we magically make unprecedented wealth and income inequality disappear: look at the vast pool of cash sitting in money market funds, look at the trillions of home equity, 401K accounts, and so on: we’re rich, so what’s the worry?

But this is artifice: the vast majority of this wealth (68%, $113 trillion) is in the hands of 13.5 million households, the top 10%. The bottom 50%--170 million people--own 2.5% of the wealth--$4 trillion, a wafer-thin 3.5% of the wealth held by the top 10%.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal (April, 2025, WSJ.com, $1 Trillion of Wealth Was Created for the 19 Richest U.S. Households Last Year), 19 households own $2.6 trillion in net worth, the same as 110 million Americans.

The top 1% (3.4 million people) own 31% of all net worth ($52 trillion), more than the net worth of all those in the 50% to 90% segment (136 million people).

The top 10% collect the lion’s share of all income and account for 50% of all spending.

It’s been reported that 41.7 million American workers (31% of the workforce) earn under $12 an hour. A brookings.edu report (2020) found that the median hourly wage of 53 million American workers (ages 18-64, 44% of the workforce) is $10.22, and their full-time annual incomes are about $24,000.

Many of the lowest-paid workers have received a significant bump up in wages, but even a 10% to 20% increase barely moves the needle when we consider that the median full-time wage earnings in the US are $62,000.

I presented all this data in The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America.

The real story of the US economy over the past 50 years is not The Fairy Tale narrative. The real story is easily visible in the data: wages’ share of the economy have plummeted, reducing the standard of living of wage earners, and the official response has been to rely on financial gimmicks to keep expanding consumption/GDP with borrowed money.

Money supply has expanded faster than the economy, as has debt, as reducing interest rates encourages more borrowing which then inflates assets, generating “the wealth effect” when then boosts more borrowing and spending, a so-called virtuous cycle of expanding debt based on assets expanding in value, enabling even more debt.

But this reliance on asset bubbles to generate wealth and consumption has exacerbated wealth and income inequality, as the system is designed to benefit those who already own assets and who have access to low-cost credit, i.e. the already-wealthy.

The vast majority of unearned income flowing from capital (rental properties, stocks, bonds, business ownership) flow to the top of the wealth pyramid.

According to economist Branko Milanovic, who studies wealth and income inequality, the median annual per capita income from financial assets in the U.S. is $21.89. Yes, $22, enough for a few Happy Meals.

This chart tells the real story: a relative handful of households (the top 0.1%) collect the vast majority of unearned investment income, while the vast majority of households collect a few dollars.

The strategy of replacing rising purchasing power of wages with asset bubbles has not just widened wealth and income inequality to levels that make social disorder increasingly inevitable, it also has left the entire economy increasingly precarious, as substituting debt and asset bubbles for earned income has left most households exposed to extraordinary risks they don’t control, i.e. the stock and housing bubbles bursting and the financial fallout as “the wealth effect” reverses. This will push the economy into a self-reinforcing feedback loop. a.k.a. doom loop.

The substitution of debt for income is self-liquidating, as at some point--what we call debt saturation--the borrower’s income is devoted solely to essential expenses and servicing existing debt: there is no more discretionary income left to fund more borrowing.

In other words, as debt expands, so too does the interest and principal due every month, and eventually this debt service plus non-discretionary spending consumes all income.

The conventional means to drag the economy out of recession--cut taxes, lower interest rates and increase federal spending to juice consumption--have all reached their limits and will no longer work as anticipated.

Federal taxes are already paid primarily by the top 10%, so “tax cuts” only benefit the already-wealthy. The “married filing jointly” tax brackets for 2026 are 10% up to $24,800 and 12% up to $100,800. If a two-income household only takes the standard deduction of $32,200, that means that a household income of $133,000 is only taxed at a maximum rate of 12%--not much above the lowest rate.

According to the US Census Bureau, the median household income in 2024 was $83,730.

So tax cuts won’t help the bottom 90% in any measurable degree.

As for lowering interest rates, as I’ve noted previously, the world has changed and the Great Moderation of 2000-2020 is no longer with us. What enabled rates to drop to near-zero was the deflationary impulse of China’s expansion as the world’s workshop: as China tapped its low-cost coal reserves and (at the time) low-wage workforce, that generated a global wave of deflation that offset the other forces pushing inflation higher.

With that deflationary wave gone, there are no replacement sources of deflation: with global trade wars and risks rising, the risk premium to borrow capital has risen globally and cannot be manipulated back down to zero.

Many expect the Federal Reserve to reach deep into its bag of tricks and push rates back to zero to “save the economy from recession,” but the Fed has seen what happens when you make this artifice your go-to policy: as Japan as shown, the result is stagnation, for the only way to clear the economy for a legitimate return to expansion is to let the asset bubbles deflate and absorb the resulting losses of bankruptcies, defaults and writedowns of debts that can never be paid back.

Since such a clearing of bad debt would hurt banks and the wealthy who own the debt as assets, this is anathema to the Fed and the political leadership.

Even if the headline interest rates drop, this won’t reduce credit card rates or student loan rates for the bottom 90%--they will remain at nosebleed levels. Those with less than excellent credit ratings will also find rates don’t drop because the Fed waved its magic wand.

In an economy that has reached debt saturation, lowering rates will accomplish nothing. The top 10% don’t need to borrow as they own 68% of the wealth and the bottom 90% will find their ability to borrow limited--and unwise.

As for the mortgage-refinance boom that fueled consumption in the Great Moderation, that’s also a non-starter, as relatively few homeowners have 7+% mortgages. The majority are sitting on mortgages at rates that may never be revisited.

And as for the federal government boosting its spending to extricate the economy from recession--the federal government is already borrowing and spending as if we’re already mired in a Depression.

The asset-bubble wealth is largely phantom wealth, an artifact of goosing money supply, debt and stocks with corporate buybacks, which by some reports account for 80% of the entire stock market gains since 2009.

If net worth had tracked inflation, total net worth would be $76 trillion, not $167 trillion. This suggests net worth could fall by half and still have registered gains from 2001.

Back to the self-reinforcing feedback loop. It’s been 45 years since the US experienced a real recession, one that couldn’t be reversed with the gimmicks of goosing money supply and debt and lowering interest rates.

In a real recession, job losses trigger further job losses, as enterprises, households and local governments (that can’t borrow to fund their general-fund expenses) reduce spending. As I noted in Crunch Time for Cities, Counties and States, local governments have few ways to trim expenses other than firing employees.

If AI follows even part of the script promoted by its boosters--that AI will replace millions of human workers--this will only accelerate the self-reinforcing feedback of job losses, reduced hours, slashed benefits, business closures, etc.

The problem is the artifices of depending on asset bubbles and soaring debt to generate “growth” have hollowed out the economy at the most basic level, leaving many households, local governments and small businesses in an extraordinarily precarious position: all credit-asset bubbles pop, and the more gimmicks that are applied, the greater the destruction.

A great many households are not prepared for the loss of a job. Many others are not prepared for a historically “average” 40% drop in their stock portfolios and home equity. Local governments are not prepared for severe declines in income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes and business-related fees.

Many small businesses are barely hanging on due to soaring costs and proprietor burnout.

The official policies of replacing increases in the purchasing power of wages with the artifices of expanding debt and credit-asset bubbles have reached their limits, and rather than solutions they are now the problem--a problem whose only resolution is the destruction of the phantom wealth via bankruptcy, default and writedowns of debt that will never be paid back.

This is not what the wealthy who own the debt want to hear, so their lackeys and apologists spin Fairy Tales about AI, modular nuclear reactors, fusion, and so on, as if the problems were somehow technological rather than the extremes of inequality created by extremes of financial artifice.

Those with the thinnest buffers may well experience the recession as a Depression. In maintaining the illusion of “growth” and “wealth,” we’ve thinned the system’s buffers to the point where any shock will collapse structures that looked solid because maintaining the appearance of stability was the entire point.

This extraordinary exposure to risks and precarity is not new. This report is from 2017: We Tracked Every Dollar 235 U.S. Households Spent for a Year, and Found Widespread Financial Vulnerability.

In many ways, the official response to the fraud-speculation driven Global Financial Meltdown--save the banks and goose “growth” by expanding debt and inflating asset bubbles--generated this massive increase in exposure to risk and precarity.

Those with the thickest buffers--those with zero debt, extremely frugal lifestyles and low fixed costs (i.e. owning a home free and clear in a low-property tax region, etc.) and recession-proof incomes may well wonder what all the fuss is about--they’ll do fine.

Build a fake structure fabricated of artifice, debt and gimmicks, and it should not be a surprise that it comes apart when the wind rises. (Charts below)

Total debt:

Money supply:

Wages share of the economy:

Housing bubble #2:

Net personal wealth:

Financial wealth held by the bottom 50%:

As I have noted, it’s free to prepare a Plan B and a Plan C, with Plan B being a response to the loss of a job or a decline in home valuations, and Plan C being our response to losses from which there is no plausible road to recovery.

CHS NOTE: I understand few readers can afford to support my work, and I appreciate you few who can and choose to subscribe in recognition that something here may change your life in a practical, useful way. Thank you for supporting my work.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 11:20

The Myth Of Falling Crime: Why Americans Don't Trust The Numbers

Zero Hedge -

The Myth Of Falling Crime: Why Americans Don't Trust The Numbers

Authored by Armstring Williams via The Epoch Times,

Every election season, mayors and governors step before cameras to boast that crime is down.

Charts are waved, statistics cited, and carefully crafted talking points deployed to assure anxious citizens that their streets are safer than ever.

Yet when you leave the press conference and walk the sidewalks of Baltimore, Chicago, or Los Angeles, the reality feels far different.

The gap between official numbers and lived experience is wide enough to swallow public trust whole.

The reason for this disconnect is simple: Most crime never gets reported in the first place.

The Baltimore Sun recently highlighted what criminologists have known for decades—about half of all crime in America isn’t captured in police data. Burglaries are only reported 45 percent of the time. Simple assaults, 37 percent. Sexual assaults, a shameful 21 percent. Think about that for a moment: Nearly four out of five sexual assaults never reach the official record. Yet politicians still spin a story that safety is improving.

Why aren’t Americans calling the cops? For many, it’s because they believe the system won’t deliver justice. Victims of property crimes often assume police won’t recover stolen items. Domestic violence survivors fear financial ruin if their abuser is arrested. Immigrants worry that calling 911 might lead to a knock on the door from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In cities like Baltimore, there is a deeply rooted stigma against “snitching” that makes reporting crimes socially dangerous. And for those who simply distrust the police, staying silent feels safer than engaging.

Here’s the political problem: Declining reported crime becomes the official narrative, but citizens’ fear of crime continues to climb. Gallup recently noted Americans are near record highs in expressing concern about violent crime. This is not paranoia—it’s the rational conclusion of people who judge their safety not by government reports but by what they see in their neighborhoods, what they hear from friends, and what they experience personally.

The anecdote of Julian and Kristen Mack, attacked in Baltimore by a group of teenagers, is telling. They never called police because they feared the children might be shot. Another former Homeland Security Department official recounted being assaulted in a D.C. coffee shop but choosing not to report it because he believed nothing meaningful would happen to the mentally ill attacker. When even former law enforcement officers don’t bother reporting crime, the legitimacy of the system is in question.

So what happens next? Officials trumpet lower homicides or robberies as proof of progress. They cut ribbons on new community initiatives and point to “data-driven policing” as evidence of reform. But residents quietly arm themselves, avoid walking alone at night, and lose faith in institutions meant to protect them. A society where people stop trusting the guardians of order is a society drifting toward vigilantism.

This is not just a policing issue—it’s a governance issue. A political class eager to tout success selectively leans on crime statistics that do not represent reality. Meanwhile, communities drowning in fear feel gaslit. That disconnect breeds cynicism, disengagement, and eventually rage. It is one reason why “law and order” rhetoric resonates so powerfully in American politics. People know something is wrong, even if official numbers deny it.

Rebuilding trust requires a cultural and institutional shift. First, public safety leaders must stop treating crime statistics as political props. Transparency demands acknowledging the limits of reported data and the reasons victims stay silent. Second, cities must address why people don’t report crime—fear of retaliation, distrust of police, and inefficiencies in prosecution. This means deeper community policing, stronger witness protections, and reforms in how cases are handled.

Politicians must stop assuming that fear of crime is just an irrational voter quirk. Fear is a rational response to disorder. If a mother refuses to let her children play outside because drug dealers loiter on the corner, it does not matter if homicides are technically down 12 percent. Her world is not safe, and no statistic will convince her otherwise.

The lesson here is timeless: Statistics do not govern...trust does. Crime numbers can be massaged, but fear cannot. If Americans no longer believe in the story their leaders are telling them, they will write their own—and it will not be a story kind to those in charge.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:40

India Funds Halt Silver ETF Investment Amid Unprecedented Global Shortage

Zero Hedge -

India Funds Halt Silver ETF Investment Amid Unprecedented Global Shortage

Amid the unprecedented shortage in the physical silver market (that we detailed here), a number of Indian asset managers have halted all new investments into Silver ETFs.

In India, the world's biggest silver consumer, silver premium over official domestic prices jumped as much as 10% on Thursday because of strong investment demand ahead of a key festival and limited supplies, bullion dealers said.

Kotak Mutual Fund on Thursday temporarily halted new purchases in a plan linked to its Indian silver exchange-traded fund, citing a domestic shortage that has driven prices above global levels.

"Kotak Silver ETF is an open-ended Exchange Traded Fund replicating/tracking price of Silver, which reflects the domestic price of silver. Therefore, the premium in domestic silver prices directly impacts the valuation of the Scheme," the company said.

Kotak Silver ETF Fund of Fund invests in units of Kotak Silver ETF, which tracks the local price of the precious metal. The fund had assets of 2.25 billion rupees ($25 million) in August, and has risen over 80% this year.

"Investors are requested to note that in recent weeks, silver has witnessed a sharp surge in demand, driven by global macroeconomic factors and increased investor interest in commodities.

However, the current limited availability of physical silver has constrained the creation of new units by ETFs at the indicative NAV (iNAV)."

Following Kotak's decision, EconomicTimes.com reports that UTI Mutual Fund and SBI Mutual Fund have also now suspended fresh subscriptions to their Silver ETF Fund of Funds, effective immediately.

Since silver-linked funds must purchase the physical metal to back up new investments, the asset managers chose to pause fresh inflows until supply conditions stabilize.

“Whenever the spot premium aligns with the import parity price, the fund-of-fund will open for subscription,” Chief Executive Nilesh Shah said in a post on X.

Redemptions will continue as before, he said.

Bloomberg reports that Nippon India Silver ETF has surged 86% this year, pushing its historical premium to net asset value to a two-year high, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The fund has 152 billion rupees in assets.

“This is a global phenomenon, not limited to India, and festive and seasonal demand has provided an additional boost,” said Vikram Dhawan, fund manager and head of commodities at Nippon India.

As we previously detailed, Goldman believes this squeeze will be temporary expecting that within 1-2 weeks we’ll see significant physical inflows from China and the US into LBMA and the curve ultimately eases, but the path will be bumpy, euphemistically speaking.

A quick glimpse at the annualized 1 month silver lease rate...

...tells you the unwind of the physical shortage is far from over.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:25

Trump Urges Pardon For Netanyahu At Knesset: "Cigars & Champagne, Who The Hell Cares?"

Zero Hedge -

Trump Urges Pardon For Netanyahu At Knesset: "Cigars & Champagne, Who The Hell Cares?"

"Hey, I have an idea Mr President: Why don't you give him a pardon? Give him a pardon, come on," Trump said, pointing at Netanyahu during his big Monday speech before the Knesset in Jerusalem, upon the historic release of all remaining Israeli hostages by Hamas.

Trump stated: "By the way, that was not in the speech, you probably know." He said this as pro-Netanyahu lawmakers gave Trump a long standing ovation, which actually happened more than once during and after the somewhat lengthy address. When Trump talked about the idea of a pardon, Knesset members shouted: "Bibi! Bibi!"

Image: Pool/TOI

Pointing at Herzog, President Trump said: "But I happen to like this gentleman over here, and it just seems to make so much sense."

That's when he called Netanyahu "one of the greatest" wartime leaders, adding: "And cigars and Champagne, who the hell cares?"

The Netanyahu trial goes back to 2019, and over the years Trump has at times called the whole saga "politically motivated" and asserted that the prime minister been through a "Horror Show".

The trial focuses on three corruption cases - including charges of fraud and breach of trust, as well as charges of bribery. The allegations range from illegally receiving expensive gifts based on political favors, to quid pro quo agreements with some Israeli media sources for more favorable coverage, to authorizing telecom-related regulatory decisions to benefit friends and allies.

The opposition in Israel has long accused Netanyahu of seeking prolong the war in Gaza for the sake of his own political survival - all while living a lavish lifestyle. 

As for Trump's reference to "cigars and Champagne" during his Monday speech, Newsweek reviews of the pending case that--

Evidence submitted includes recordings, text messages, and police documents. Notably, testimony from key figures including Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan has brought to light extravagant gifts allegedly given to Netanyahu and his wife, including Champagne and cigars.

Trump was thanked by Netanyahu during the Knesset proceedings for his "pivotal leadership in putting forward a proposal that got the backing of almost the entire world."

He said of Trump's ceasefire plan that it "brings all our hostages home" and "ends the war by achieving all our objectives" and it also "opens the door to an historic expansion of peace in our region and beyond our region."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:20

Columbus Day Celebrates Western Civilization

Zero Hedge -

Columbus Day Celebrates Western Civilization

Authored by Daniel McCarthy via RealClearPolitics.com,

Battles over Columbus Day aren't really about Christopher Columbus at all -- they're about whether America should exist.

"Columbus's journey carried thousands of years of wisdom, philosophy, reason, and culture across the Atlantic into the Americas -- paving the way for the ultimate triumph of Western civilization less than three centuries later on July 4, 1776," President Donald Trump says in his Columbus Day proclamation.

Yet that's why the holiday has so many enemies.

Unlike progressive movements of decades past, today's ideological left doesn't particularly want to lay claim to America's heritage.

Even the Communist Party USA once made an effort to brand its radical creed as 20th-century "Americanism."

Karl Marx himself saw the spread of bourgeois civilization as inevitable and even necessary for creating the conditions of worldwide class revolution.

That civilization is what opponents of Columbus Day reject.

Columbus extended the horizons of Western civilization, which is what the holiday in his name recognizes.

Yes, Italian Americans are especially proud of Columbus, a son of Italy and the seafaring republic of Genoa in particular.

But this isn't just an ethnic holiday -- everyone whose ancestors weren't already in this hemisphere when Columbus arrived owes the heroic explorer a debt of gratitude.

By forging permanent ties between the Americas and the wider world, Columbus made our lives and way of life possible.

He opened the way not only for Europeans and Christians like himself but ultimately for people of every land and religion to seek freedom, safety and opportunity in a New World without the class constraints and ancient hatreds of the Old World.

In 1492, the same year Columbus sailed into the uncharted Atlantic, his Spanish royal patrons banished Jews from their land -- yet because of Columbus's discoveries, Jews would one day find a haven half a world away from the persecutions they long endured elsewhere.

Columbus didn't introduce slavery to the Americas -- the natives already had that evil institution before Europeans came.

He did, however, set in motion the end of the New World's own characteristic horrors, such as the Aztecs' human sacrifices and the cannibalism practiced by the Caribs.

Columbus deserves no blame for the diseases that devastated native populations: Sooner or later, these peoples with no immunity to infections which most of the human race had contended with for generations would have suffered the same tragic fate from contact with the outside world.

The Black Death that ravaged medieval Europe came from abroad, too, from contact with Asia -- only in the modern world, as a result of Western science and medicine, is humanity free to travel and trade with little fear pestilence will follow.

And when new diseases like COVID do spread around the globe, the resources of civilization that Columbus helped spread are able to meet the threat.

Columbus Day is not meant to be a saint's day.

Like our nation's Founding Fathers, Columbus was flawed, and his reputation bears the stains of his age's evils, including slavery.

But like them, Columbus was an exemplar of much that is best in our character.

He was the first and, in many ways, an archetypal American, an enterprising immigrant who risked everything for a new hope, who not only set out to improve his family's lot in life but understood his work as service to God.

He was our first pioneer, and he's been honored in the United States since the late 18th century, when New York City's Society of Tammany -- also known as the Columbian Order -- began celebrating his October birthday.

The federal holiday is more recent, with Congress first asking Franklin Roosevelt to proclaim a day for Columbus in the 1930s, and the statutory holiday established in 1971.

But it's the pitched opposition to Columbus that's really novel.

Mayor Eric Adams has had to urge New York's Landmarks Preservation Commission to grant protected status to the admiral's statues, so Zohran Mamdani can't tear them down if he becomes mayor.

On college campuses and in state capitals across the country, left-wing activists call for replacing Columbus Day with an "Indigenous Peoples Day."

It's an ironic demand since the very notion of indigenous peoples only makes sense from a Eurocentric point of view.

Because every "indigenous" group at some point migrated from someplace else -- usually displacing older, more indigenous populations in the process -- the term doesn't refer to the original inhabitants of any land.

Instead, it means populations predating the arrival of Europeans or other ideologically disfavored groups: Jews certainly aren't indigenous enough to the Holy Land for the "anti-colonialist" left.

Columbus Day celebrates the birthday of Western civilization as something not confined only to Europe.

Yet in our country, all too many of this civilization's spoiled heirs regret the very achievements that have made their existence possible, including the supreme achievements of Christopher Columbus.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 10:00

Rare Earth Stocks Go Vertical After Report Pentagon To Go On $1 Billion Critical Mineral "Buying Spree"

Zero Hedge -

Rare Earth Stocks Go Vertical After Report Pentagon To Go On $1 Billion Critical Mineral "Buying Spree"

We’ve been bullish on rare earth miners for over three months— long before the mainstream press caught on. While the media is just catching up, Zerohedge have hopefully been enjoying locking in multiples of gains in popular rare earth stocks like USA Rare Earths (USAR) and MP Materials (MP) as the Pentagon is quietly ramping up its billion-dollar mineral stockpiling spree, now being highlighted by the Financial Times over the weekend

Recall, all the way back on July 11th we wrote "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit" for our premium subscribers.USAR was trading at about $11 at the time is is bid at $38 this morning. MP Materials was trading at about $45 at the time and this morning is bid at about $86.

According to filings from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), the U.S. Department of Defense has moved to secure up to $1 billion in critical minerals — from cobalt and antimony to scandium and tantalum — as part of a global race to reduce dependence on China, according to Financial Times

One former defense official summed it up: “They’re definitely looking for more, and they’re doing it in a deliberate and expansive way.”

The acceleration follows China’s sweeping new export controls on rare earths, which prompted Donald Trump to cancel a planned meeting with Xi Jinping, warning: “There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the world ‘captive’ but that seems to have been their plan.”

The Pentagon’s urgency is clear. “China’s ability to turn off the supply of these critical minerals would have a direct, palpable and adverse effect on US ability to field the kind of high-tech capabilities that we’re going to need for any kind of strategic competition or conflict,” said Stephanie Barna of Covington & Burling in Washington.

FT writes that recent DLA filings show proposed purchases including $500 million in cobalt, $245 million in antimony from U.S. Antimony Corp (USAC), $100 million in tantalum, and $45 million in scandium from Rio Tinto and APL Engineered Materials.

Analysts at Jefferies said the Rio Tinto scandium deal was priced “higher than market expectations.” The DLA itself noted that Chinese export controls had “constrained the supply chain.”

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) adds fuel — $7.5 billion earmarked for critical minerals, including $2 billion to fortify the national stockpile and another $5 billion to expand U.S. supply chains. As one former official put it, offices handling mineral security are now “flush with cash.”

Some in the industry were stunned by the scale. “Market participants have been taken aback by the volumes requested by the DLA,” said Cristina Belda of Argus Media. “In most cases, the requested tonnages exceed the US’s annual production and import levels.”

Demand shocks are already visible. Germanium prices have spiked on reduced Chinese exports, antimony trioxide prices have nearly doubled, and the Pentagon is even evaluating acquisitions of rare earths, tungsten, bismuth, and indium. Fastmarkets’ Solomon Cefai warned that “non-China supply would not be pressured by the volumes the DLA is looking at.”

Bottom line: Washington is now openly doing what Zerohedge readers positioned for months ago — securing physical exposure to the minerals that will define the next geopolitical cycle.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 09:45

Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker

Zero Hedge -

Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker

As Trump cranks up (and then walks back) rhetoric towards China, the Dutch government just turned up the Beijing-baiting amplifier to '11'.

In a sudden and quite chocking move, The FT reports that the Dutch government has taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia, warning of risks to Europe’s economic security after alleging “serious governance shortcomings” at the company.

Nexperia, the European semiconductor unit of China’s Wingtech Technology Co. is a key supplier to the automotive and consumer electronics industries. The Sept. 30 court order invoked the Goods Availability Act for the first time, a piece of legislation enacted more than 70 years ago to ensure access to critical products in emergencies.

“The decision aims to prevent a situation in which the goods produced by Nexperia would become unavailable in an emergency,” the government said in a statement late on Sunday, against a backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the US and its allies.

The move escalates frictions between western countries and China over access to high-end technology such as advanced semiconductors and critical raw materials.

The Netherlands should “truly adhere to market principles and refrain from politicising economic and trade issues”, said spokesperson Lin Jian.

On Thursday, China placed sweeping restrictions on the exports of rare earths used in products from cars to wind turbines.

The Dutch ministry said it invoked the country’s Goods Availability Act because of “recent and acute serious governance shortcomings and actions” at Nexperia, which is based in the Netherlands and has been majority-owned by Chinese technology group Wingtech since 2019.

As one would imagine, this move was not received well by Wingtech, which called the Dutch move excessive and based on geopolitical bias.

“We strongly protest against the discriminatory treatment targeting Chinese firms,” the company said in a statement on Monday posted on Chinese social media platform WeChat, urging the Dutch government to revoke the directives.

We have initiated all legal and diplomatic channels, it said.

As Bloomberg reports, the move was actually instigated as a management coup:

Nexperia’s own executives called for a probe into the company, headquartered in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Its Dutch chief legal officer, supported by German chief operating officer and chief financial officer filed a petition to an Amsterdam court on Oct. 1 seeking an investigation into the firm, Wingtech said.

The demands of the European executives closely aligned with directives from the Dutch government, Wingtech said, framing the move as an effort to use political pressure to deprive shareholders of their rights and overturn the company’s legitimate governance structure.

The Dutch government said Nexperia showed “recent and acute signals of serious governance shortcomings,” without elaborating. “These signals posed a threat to the continuity and safeguarding on Dutch and European soil of crucial technological knowledge and capabilities,” it said in the statement.

While Nexperia can continue regular production, the government can now block or reverse its decisions. The Hague is demanding that Wingtech suspend changes to Nexperia’s assets, business or personnel for as much as a year, a requirement that extends to its subsidiaries, the Chinese firm said in an exchange filing on Sunday.

Its shares plunged by its daily limit of 10% in Shanghai on Monday.

The court also ordered that all shares in Nexperia - except one - should be placed under custodial management by a designated individual, not yet named, for management purposes, Wingtech said.

“China always opposes overstretching the concept of national security and discriminatory moves that target companies from certain countries,” China Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Monday.

“China is firmly resolved in defending its own legitimate and lawful rights and interests.”

Washington last year added Wingtech to its “entity list”, accusing the company of helping China acquire sensitive semiconductor manufacturing technology.

The designation requires US companies to seek a license to sell to them. Those license requests are often denied.

The US commerce department last month introduced new rules that extend the sales restrictions to subsidiaries of companies on the entity list, meaning that Nexperia would be subject to restrictions because of its Wingtech ownership.

We can only imagine the reaction in Washington or Brussels were this kind of action undertaken by Beijing on a US tech firm within China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 09:15

Futures Jump After Trump Softens China Rhetoric; Gold, Silver Soar

Zero Hedge -

Futures Jump After Trump Softens China Rhetoric; Gold, Silver Soar

US markets closed last week with the largest one-day loss in six months, with Asian overnight futures pointed to a sharp downdraft on Monday. HSCEI and Hang Seng futures closed down 5% (limit down) on Friday night. 
However, on Sunday Trump walked back some of his Friday comments, stating that “November 1 is an eternity” and expressing optimism that “they will be fine with China.” As a result, amid some fringe expectations of a "Black Monday" futures are solidly in the green as Trump strikes a reconciliatory tone in social media posts yesterday with futures pointing to a 50% retracement of Friday’s losses with Tech leading an ‘Everything Rally’ as the bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday and there are no expected data releases. As of 8:00am ET. S&P futures are 1.2% higher while Nasdaq futures gain 1.7% with Mag7 and Semis among the largest gainers pre-market. Cyclicals are seeing material outperformance to Defensives with rare earth plays seeing double-digit gains. In commodities, all 3 complexes are recovering with crude and precious metals the standouts as gold hits a new record high around $4080 and silver trades above $51.50 its highest level in decades amid a historic short squeeze in London. Cryptocurrencies bounced following the weekend’s selloff. French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis. The dollar steadied and oil rose for the first time in three days. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are all green after Friday's rout (Nvidia +2.7%, Apple +1.4%, Microsoft +1.1%, Meta +1.4%, Tesla +1.7%, Amazon +1.3%, Alphabet +1.2%).

  • US-listed rare earth and critical mineral stocks rise following strong gains among Asian peers, as fresh tensions between Beijing and Washington over China’s exports of the critical minerals fueled bets on alternative suppliers
  • Critical Metals (CRML) advances 18%; MP Materials (MP) +8%, Energy Fuels (UUUU) +12%
  • Blackstone Inc. (BX) rises 2% after agreeing to sell a portfolio of UK warehouses valued at $1.3 billion to Tritax Big Box REIT Plc in a deal that will hand the alternative asset manager a stake in the landlord.
  • Estee Lauder (EL) climbs 4.8% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the beauty company to buy from neutral.
  • Fastenal (FAST) falls 4% after the maker of sheet metal screws posted 3Q profit that slightly missed estimates.
  • StubHub (STUB) gains 4% after the company received several bullish initiations following its initial public offering, with analysts expecting the company to further leverage its dominant position as it enters the lucrative primary ticketing market.
  • Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rises 4% as the media company rejected Paramount Skydance Corp.’s initial takeover approach for being too low, according to reports that cited people familiar with the matter.

In corporate news, Morgan Stanley’s asset-management business is said to have asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies fund with large exposure to the trade debt of First Brands. State Street and Marex Group are expanding their outsourced trading businesses.

Stock futures are bouncing back from Friday’s dramatic selloff after Trump signaled openness to a deal with China. Treasury futures slipped, with cash trading in US bonds suspended for Columbus Day. The dash for gold persisted as the metal neared $4,080 an ounce. In Europe, French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis. Silver surged to its highest level in decades amid a historic short squeeze in London. Cryptocurrencies bounced following the weekend’s selloff. The dollar steadied and oil rose for the first time in three days.

“There is a belief emerging that this is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. “The market will begin to price in a reasonable probability of a deal once the initial shock fades.”

Still, there’s plenty to keep traders tense, with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said that a bear-case scenario could see the S&P 500 sink as much as 11% if trade tensions between the US and China aren’t resolved before a November deadline. Deutsche Bank strategists said overall equity positioning is moderately overweight but not stretched, and markets could follow a scenario from 2021 when stocks suffered a modest pull back before resuming a strong, steady rally. 

With the VIX remaining above the key 20 level, the next few days will be a test of whether investors continue the systematic dip buying seen in recent months. The current three-year bull market has seen the S&P 500 add about $28 trillion in market value, but history suggests gains need to broaden out to be maintained.

As well as US-China developments, investors will focus on earnings season this week which kicks off with the banks tomorrow. US financials kick things off tomorrow, while AI-related updates including TSMC and Samsung in Asia and ASML in Europe will be closely watched. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence expect profit growth of 7.4% for US stocks in the third quarter.

A Citigroup index tracking US earnings revisions - the number of analysts upgrading versus downgrading estimates - turned flat for the first time since August, while RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions has been fading. If last season’s strong sentiment around earnings can’t be maintained, stocks may face “a period of digestion,” Calvasina said. High valuations also leave little patience for companies that don’t meet the bar. The S&P 500 trades at 22 times P/E, a big premium to the rest of the world.

As JPMorgan, Goldman and Citigroup prepare to report third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, options on S&P 500 members imply an average 4.7% swing after results, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s near July’s level, when the expected move was the largest for an earnings-season kickoff since 2022, using JPMorgan’s release as the starting point.

“For earnings, the focus will remain on the richly-valued areas of the market,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “We’ve seen a more defensive posture take hold and it’s a time for validation and confirmation.”

Outside of earnings, global policymakers and finance ministers gather this week in Washington for the IMF/World Bank fall meetings after a chorus of warnings that a stock bubble focused on AI might burst before long. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.4%, trimming part of Friday’s steep decline after President Donald Trump backpedaled on his tariff threats against China, signaling a willingness to negotiate. Mining, real estate and technology shares lead gains.

In FX, the Japanese yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback while the Swiss franc is not far behind. The Aussie dollar outperforms, rising 0.8%.

In rates, treasury futures came under early pressure from the reopen, partially unwinding a late bid seen in Friday’s session, after President Donald Trump’s administration signaled openness to a deal with China to quell the fresh trade tensions. Cash trading in Treasuries is closed for Columbus Day. In Europe, gilts lead a modest advance in European government bonds. French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis

In commodities, spot gold rises over $50 to another record. WTI crude futures gain 2% to $60 a barrel. 

There is nothing on the calendar due to the Columbus Day holiday. 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +1.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +1.6%
  • Russell 2000 mini +1.7%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
  • DAX +0.5%
  • CAC 40 +0.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.03%
  • VIX -2.2 points at 19.48
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1214.31
  • euro -0.2% at $1.1593
  • WTI crude +1.9% at $60/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • All remaining Israeli hostages were released by Hamas. Israel is in the process of releasing almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Donald Trump arrived in Israel and is to address the Knesset before traveling to Egypt for a deal-signing ceremony. The Israeli PM’s office said Benjamin Netanyahu won’t go to the Egypt summit. BBG
  • The Trump administration signaled openness to a deal with China while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talks. BBG
  • Trump said on Friday that layoffs will be Democrat-oriented and it will be a lot of people. Trump separately commented that he is using his authority to direct the defence secretary to use all available funds to get troops paid on October 15th, while he added they identified funds to do this and Secretary Hegseth will use them to pay troops.
  • JD Vance told Fox News that the longer the shutdown goes on, the more significant permanent layoffs will be. Trump said he’s directing the Defense Department to use funds the administration has identified to deliver paychecks to US troops on Oct. 15. Vance responded that the ‘President is looking at all his options’ when asked if Trump is considering invoking the Insurrection Act. Furthermore, he said that the Justice Department is not acting on orders by President Trump to prosecute his political opponents. BBG 
  • The Pentagon is looking to buy as much as $1 billion of critical minerals to stockpile, the FT reported. China’s latest curbs on the export of batteries may have major impact on US companies, analysts say. BBG
  • China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, beating market expectations and underscoring the sector’s continued role as a key growth driver for the world’s second-largest economy. China exports +8.3% (vs. the Street +6.6%) and imports +7.4% (vs. the Street +1.8%). WSJ
  • China’s auto sales growth accelerated in Sept vs. Aug (+6.6% Y/Y vs. +4.9% in Aug). RTRS
  • Trump said he’d consider arming Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, but may first talk to Vladimir Putin in a bid to end the war. BBG
  • Canada believes it is closing in on sectoral trade deals with the US, counting on Trump’s need for wins ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Melanie Joly, Canada’s minister of industry, said there was progress on landing trade deals, in particular for steel, which has been significantly hit by US tariffs. FT
  • JPMorgan vowed to funnel $1.5 trillion into industries that bolster US economic security and resiliency over the next 10 years — an initiative that will invest billions of dollars in companies and hire bankers and other professionals. BBG
  • Friday’s trade and tariff headlines fueled worries around a replay of April. The moves triggered heavy index-level hedging and record option volumes, even as cash equity trading remained relatively muted. S&P share volumes were only up +9% versus the 20-day moving average, while total U.S. options volume hit a new all-time high, eclipsing 100mm contracts for just the second time (April 4th was the other — when the market fell -5.97%). Friday’s felt more like a rush to protect than a rush to exit positions per Goldman
  • New research suggested that the upcoming easing of capital rules could unlock USD 2.6tln in lending capacity for US banks and increase pressure on regulators elsewhere to follow suit, according to FT.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump posted on Sunday “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
  • US VP Vance called on Beijing to "choose the path of reason" amid escalating trade tensions with China and said President Trump has "far more cards" if an aggressive response is required.
  • China’s Commerce Ministry said the October 9th rare earth export control measures are legitimate and designed to better safeguard world peace and regional stability, while it added that rare earth export control measures do not constitute a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be granted licences. MOFCOM said the US announcement of 100% tariffs on China represents a classic case of double standards, and since the US-China talks in Madrid, the US has continuously introduced a series of new restrictions against China. It also stated that China’s position on tariff wars has been consistent, whereby they do not want to fight but are not afraid to fight. Furthermore, China urged the US to promptly correct its erroneous practices and warned that should the US persist in its course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, as well as noted that the US decision to impose port fees on relevant Chinese vessels meant China “had no choice but to take countermeasures”, and that China’s decision to impose a special port fee on US-related vessels are necessary defensive actions.
  • China's Foreign Ministry urges US to promptly correct its "wrong practices" in regards to the new US tariffs.
  • China Customs spokesperson said US measures on shipping fees are a typical show of unilateralism and protectionism, while the spokesperson added that China’s countermeasures are necessary and are defensive actions. Furthermore, it was stated that China’s measures aim to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese industries and firms, while they hope the US can face up to its own 'mistakes' and that the US gets back to the correct track of communication and negotiations.
  • USTR Greer said the US reached out for a call with China after the export controls announcement, but Beijing deferred. It was also reported that Greer said significant progress was made in trade talks with Cambodia that will allow more export opportunities for US farmers.
  • US said it is taking action to defend America from the UN’s first global carbon tax and that the administration unequivocally rejects this proposal, while the US is considering actions against nations that support this global carbon tax on American consumers. Furthermore, the US said possible actions include probes, visa restrictions, commercial penalties, additional port fees and sanctions on officials.
  • Canadian Industry Minister Joly said the government is working on a new industrial strategy that seeks to open new markets for exporters and prioritise domestic procurement in the face of US tariffs, which have hurt steel, aluminium, forestry and automotive companies. It was also reported that Canadian Trade Minister Sidhu spoke with India’s Commerce Minister Goyal.
  • Switzerland and China will accelerate trade discussions on upgrading their free-trade agreement, following a meeting between Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis and Chinese counterpart Wang on Friday.
  • Indian Trade Delegation is to visit to US this week, via Reuters citing sources; good progress has reportedly been made. India and US are sticking to a fall deadline for an early part of the deal. India looking to buy more energy and gas from the US.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week in the red as the region reacted to last Friday's Trump tariff threats and the subsequent Wall St sell-off, although US equity futures rebounded due to the softer tone from Trump over the weekend, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech, energy, telecoms and defensives, while gold miners are at the other end of the spectrum after prices rebounded back above the USD 4,000/oz level to touch fresh record highs. KOSPI retreated amid tech weakness, and with index heavyweight Samsung Electronics pressured after it was hit by a USD 445.5mln jury verdict for infringing wireless communication patents. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the flare-up of US-China trade frictions on Friday after US President Trump threatened massive tariffs on China and announced to impose a 100% additional tariff on China from November 1st, before softening his tone over the weekend, while participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed both exports and imports topped forecasts.

Top Asian News

  • China Customs Vice Minister said great efforts are needed to stabilise foreign trade in Q4 and that China's foreign trade showed resilience with improving structure in Q1-Q3, but the current external environment is still complex and grim with rising uncertainties.
  • US FCC chair said on Friday that US ecommerce websites were removing millions of prohibited Chinese electronic items from companies like Huawei.
  • Dutch government said it is intervening in Dutch chipmaker Nexperia and stated that there are serious administrative shortcomings at Nexperia, while it added that intervention means it may block or reverse company decisions and that the Co. is a subsidiary of Chinese electronics manufacturer Wingtech (600745 CH).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened firmer across the board to varying degrees and have traded sideways throughout the morning. Markets are currently cheering US President Trump's softer tone on China, after Friday's threat of 100% tariffs on the region. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. The cyclical sectors are all towards the top of the pile, with Tech and Consumer Products leading whilst Telecoms lag a touch.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Reeves is bumping up her plans for tax increases and spending cuts in the November Budget in order to create billions of pounds of additional fiscal “headroom” for the Treasury against future economic shocks, according to FT. It was separately reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions in a desperate bid to plug a black hole in the Budget, with experts warning that Reeves could push up taxes both on pension contributions paid by working people, and on withdrawals by retirees, according to the Express. Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Chancellor Reeves has signalled that wealthier households will be asked to “contribute more” in her Budget next month.
  • ECB’s Vujcic suggested he’s comfortable with the current policy settings as he noted that “Markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are,” and stated that “We are at a good place.”
  • French Presidency announced a new government on Sunday with Laurent Nunez named as Interior Minister, Roland Lescure renamed as Finance Minister and Jean-Noel Barrot renamed as Foreign Minister.
  • Several people were injured in the German town of Giessen after someone fired shots in a marketplace, according to DPA citing a police spokesperson.

FX

  • Overall, a firmer day for the Dollar following Friday's hefty fall from grace after US President Trump said there is no reason to meet Chinese President Xi, and threatened China with 100% tariffs. Over the weekend, US President Trump softened his tone and suggested the Xi meeting is not cancelled and “might” still happen, and added the US wants to help, not hurt China, although Trump did not withdraw his tariff threat. The Columbus Day holiday in the US means that cash bond markets are closed, although equity markets are open today. DXY resides in a current 98.83-99.21 band, and within Friday's 98.81-99.43 range.
  • EUR is subdued but within relatively tight parameters with ECB’s Vujcic suggesting he’s comfortable with current policy settings as he noted that “markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are” and stated, "they are at a good place". Attention also remained on the political situation in France, where Lecornu returned as French PM and a new government was unveiled ahead of the budget deadline, with Lecornu asked to present a revised budget to parliament. ING suggests "That seems likely to fail and result in a no-confidence vote later this week, which will leave France without a government. A rise in German WPI this morning did little to move the charts.
  • JPY stands as the clear laggard, closely followed by the CHF, as the haven FX unwind some of the recent haven flows from Friday and amid the Japanese holiday closure overnight. USD/JPY gapped higher overnight after ending Friday's session towards the bottom of a 151.10-153.27 range, with today between 151.72-152.37 parameters.
  • Cable sees mild losses despite a lack of pertinent catalysts this morning, but as the DXY clambers off worst levels, while press reports over the weekend noted that UK Chancellor Reeves is eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions to plug a black hole in the Budget. The pair trades in a 1.3329-1.3366 range at the time of writing.
  • Antipodeans are the clear outperformers this morning amid the partial unwind of Friday's fall, with the AUD surpassing peers and being aided by a boost in base metals and gold also holding firm despite a recovery in the dollar and in spite of the unwind of risk premium across other havens, albeit amid the ongoing US government shutdown.

Fixed Income

  • A softer start to the week for USTs after the Trump-induced jump on Friday. To recap, USTs got to a 113-09 peak on Friday after escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Since, the US President has been a little softer in his language over the weekend and while China has commented, it has not announced a tit-for-tat or escalatory response just yet. Points that have taken some of the tension out of the situation allowing the risk tone to recover to a degree. As such, USTs are down to a 112-30 trough with losses of 6+ ticks at most, though markedly clear of the 112-16+ base from Friday. For the US today is a quieter than usual day owing to Columbus Day, while it is not a formal market holiday cash trade remains closed and was also shut overnight due to the absence of Japan. Nonetheless, Fed’s Paulson (2026) is scheduled and expected to provide a text and partake in a Q&A; we haven’t really heard from Paulson since she replaced Harker at the Philadelphia Fed at end-June.
  • OATs underperform vs peers. In focus as re-appointed PM Lecornu addresses his newly formed cabinet before speaking to parliament at some point today. As a reminder, the current schedule means that a draft 2026 budget of some form needs to be presented today in order to allow discussion/negotiation and passage before year end.
  • Bunds were initially lower, tracking USTs, but are now a touch firmer. Specifics for Germany are primarily on the fiscal front. Handelsblatt reports that the Finance Ministry is considering exempting from the debt brake the interest payments on loans for defence spending. An exemption that would provide a “double-digit billion amount” of leeway in the coming years. No discernible move in Bunds to the release. Bunds in a 129.13 to 129.34 band which is entirely within Friday’s 128.70 to 129.41 parameter.
  • Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks, directionally in-fitting with peers but with magnitudes a little more contained. Since, the benchmark has been as low as 91.01, posting losses of 15 ticks at most. However, Gilts have reverted back towards opening levels of 91.12 in a 91.01-26 band. Multiple outlets report that the Chancellor is looking at giving herself more than the GBP 9.9bln of headroom she had from her first budget. To do this, she is said to be considering a pension raid, among other measures to target wealthier households, according to the Express/Telegraph.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks climb as markets digest the softening tone from US President Trump following increased trade tensions between China and US, where Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China. After the largest selloff on Friday since late June, WTI and Brent have bounced and peaked shy of USD 60/bbl and USD 64/bbl respectively. Benchmarks currently oscillating in a tight c. USD 0.40/bbl range.
  • Precious metals continue to break ATHs, with spot XAU peaking at USD 4078/oz during the APAC session and currently trading near its peak. Shrinking stockpiles of silver in London, in addition to the rising debt concerns and debasement from the dollar, have helped reinforce the rally in XAG. It has been calculated that “free float” silver has dropped to just 200mln ounces, down 75% from a high of over 850mln ounces in mid-2019. Further upside is still the theme in precious metals, with BofA lifting XAU and XAG forecasts to USD 5k/oz and USD 65/oz respectively.
  • Base metals rebound as US President Trump plays down tariff scare. 3M LME Copper gapped higher and peaked at USD 10.67k/t, before finding support at USD 10.5k/t and currently oscillating between parameters formed early this session.
  • Iraq set November Basrah medium crude Official Selling Price to Asia at plus USD 0.85/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and set the OSP to Europe at minus USD 2.80/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.40/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
  • Ahead of LME Week (Oct 13th), Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain in a USD 10,000-11,000/t price range in 2026/2027, but sees downside to aluminium prices, while nickel is likely to remain in oversupply. Elsewhere, the desk sees the most likely medium-term path for silver prices as one of further gains, as Fed cuts attract inflows.
  • BofA lifts gold price forecasts after spot gold hit their USD 4,000/oz forecast; says a 14% increase of investment demand – similar to what was seen this year – could lift gold to USD 5,000/oz, a 28% demand increase could see a rally to USD 6,000/oz. Still expect further upside in 2026: Gold potentially rising to USD 5,000/oz (USD 4,400 average). Silver potentially rising to USD 65/oz (USD 56.25/oz average). Downside risks to watch: US mid-term election outcomes impacting policy implementation. Possible Fed hawkish pivot if data improves. Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs.
  • Saudi Aramco CEO says oil demand is resilient and there is large growth potential. Maximum sustained production capacity is 12mln BPD, can be done at no additional cost for one year Sees oil demand growing by 1.1-1.3mln BPD in 2025, and then 1.2-1.4mln BPD in 2026.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Egypt will host an international summit on Monday regarding the agreement to end the war in Gaza which will be attended by more than 20 leaders, including US President Trump. It was also reported that UK PM Starmer will travel to Egypt to attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace plan, while French President Macron and European Council President Costa will also attend the peace summit in Egypt on Monday.
  • Israeli government spokesperson said the release of hostages will begin early Monday morning and it expects all 20 living hostages to be released together at one time, while Palestinian prisoners will be released once all hostages set to be released on Monday are received.
  • Israeli army radio announced that the first 6 hostages are to be released in Gaza City, while it was reported that Hamas published the names of the 20 hostages to be released.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the possibility of Iran joining the Abraham Accords is US President Trump’s wishful thinking and Iran will never recognise an ‘occupier regime, which has committed genocide and killed children’, while he added that Tehran sees no reason for nuclear talks with European powers. Furthermore, he noted that Tehran and Washington are exchanging messages through mediators and that Tehran welcomes a potential ‘fair and balanced’ US nuclear proposal, but stated they have not received any request for nuclear negotiations from any country so far.
  • All living hostages have now been released by Hamas, according to reports citing Kann News.
  • US President Trump says Hamas will comply with plans to disarm; the war is over.

Geopoltics: Ukraine

  • US President Trump said he may tell Russian President Putin that he may send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if the war is not settled.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a good, productive conversation with US President Trump and discussed strengthening air defence, while he is grateful for US readiness to support. Zelensky separately commented that they would only use Tomahawk missiles to pursue military goals, not to attack civilians in Russia, although he also noted that Trump has not yet made a decision on supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine and that he is waiting for Trump’s decision.
  • Ukrainian drone struck Russia’s Bashneft oil refinery in Ufa.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said Russian troops hit fuel and energy infrastructure facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, while it reported on Sunday morning that Russia shot down 72 Ukrainian drones over the previous day.
  • UK Ministry of Defence said two Royal Air Force aircraft flew a 12-hour mission on Thursday with the US and NATO as they patrolled the border of Russia.

Geopoltics: Other

  • Pakistan’s military said 22 Pakistani soldiers were killed and more than 200 died on the Afghan side in border clashes. Furthermore, Pakistan Foreign Minister said they expect the Taliban government to take concrete measures against terrorist elements and perpetrators that wish to derail Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, while Pakistan will take all possible measures to defend its own territory, sovereignty and people.
  • Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister said Qatar and Saudi Arabia intervened for mediation after Saturday night firing between Afghanistan and Pakistan, while the official added that they have other ways to handle the situation if Pakistan does not want to engage in dialogue.
  • Philippines said a government vessel was rammed by a Chinese ship at sea, while China’s Coast Guard said two Philippine government vessels ‘illegally entered’ waters near Sandy Cay without authorisation, which resulted in a collision, for which the Philippine side bears full responsibility. Furthermore, the Chinese Coast Guard stated that it lawfully took control measures against Philippine vessels and resolutely expelled them.
  • North Korean Leader Kim held talks with Russia’s Medvedev and said the military must evolve to destroy all threats, while Kim said the nation’s military heroism will not only be seen in the defence of North Korea but also in outposts of socialist construction. Furthermore, Kim told Medvedev that he hopes to continue to strengthen cooperation between the two countries and closely engage in diverse exchanges and contacts to achieve common goals, according to KCNA.
  • China and North Korea pledged to develop strategic communication and will strengthen strategic cooperation.

US Event Calendar

  • 12:55 pm: Fed’s Paulson Speaks at NABE

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's hard to know where to start this morning with a continued US shutdown seemingly the least of our concerns these days. The plates currently spinning in markets are 1) the sudden resumption of trade hostilities between the US and China on Friday; 2) the reappointment of Lecornu as French Prime Minister late on Friday but with no obvious signs that he'll find life any easier than what promoted him to resign a week before; 3) the collapse of the governing coalition in Japan on Friday just a week after Takaichi was elected as LDP leader which will make radical policymaking more challenging and even threaten her nomination as PM; 4) The US intervening to prop up the Argentinian Peso ahead of domestic mid-term elections (President Milei is an ally of Trump) in less than 2 weeks; 5) the London Silver market seeing one of the biggest short squeezes in history; 6) a peace deal with Hamas and Israel which should see the remaining hostages released today after two years of captivity; 7) signs of weakness in US credit, after the First Brands collapse a couple of weeks back, and bubbling private credit fears, post a long period of being bullet proof; and 8) a large fall in Crypto late on Friday, including a $10,000 fall in bitcoin in just a few hours. There’s probably more but these are the main themes in global markets.

After Friday’s sell-off where the S&P 500 (-2.71%) fell the most since April 10th, just as US Treasuries were under their peak post Liberation Day stress, Asian markets are also seeing a weak session this morning. US futures are bouncing though on hopes that US and China can negotiate through their disagreements. Throughout the region, the Hang Seng Tech index (-4.54%) is at the forefront of losses, while the Hang Seng index is also sinking (-3.49%), primarily influenced by substantial declines in major Chinese internet and technology companies. In addition, the CSI (-1.76%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.30%) are also lower. Elsewhere Japan is shut for a public holiday, while the KOSPI (-1.62%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.99%) are also weak. S&P 500 (+1.22%) and NASDAQ (+1.65%) futures are rebounding strongly as the US leadership rhetoric over the weekend showed willingness to negotiate.

When Trump returned to power, I was convinced it would mark the beginning of a much weaker US-China relationship, with a real risk of significant decoupling. Yet, over the past few months, US trade tensions have often seemed more focused on traditional allies, while the relationship with China appeared to be improving, albeit after some aggressive tariff threats. But Friday’s developments were a reminder of the underlying tension that still exists.

I suspect the recent improvement was driven more by US fears of empty shelves if the punitive tariffs threatened post-Liberation Day were actually implemented. Perhaps the US needed time to adjust. Since then, the mood music has been notably more positive, and it’s still very possible, maybe even likely, that both sides are simply trying to strengthen their near-term negotiating positions. However, these tensions will probably be a recurring theme in the years ahead as both sides compete on the global stage for dominance.

China currently holds considerable leverage in the rare earths market and seems keen to use it to secure a better deal—particularly in the chip sector, where the US has imposed export controls. So, this battle is shaping up as rare earths versus AI chips.

Interestingly this morning's data show that China is diversifying their exports. While exports to the US decreased by -27.0% year-on-year in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of double-digit declines, growth in its global exports reached a six-month high of +8.3% (compared to +6.6% expected), significantly surpassing the +4.4% year-on-year increase recorded in August. Imports rose by +7.4% in September, exceeding the forecast of +1.8%, resulting in a surplus of $90.5 billion.

It’s worth remembering that Trump and Xi were expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC 2025 summit in South Korea on October 31st–November 1st. Also note that the suspension of higher US tariffs on Chinese goods expires on November 10th. There’s still plenty of time for negotiations, and I suspect the market will begin to price in a reasonable probability of a deal once the initial shock fades. For what its worth, Polymarket has the probabilities of the two Presidents meeting by October 31st at 62% this morning, down from a peak of 88% last week but up from around 35% at the lows on Friday night. So there is a belief emerging that this is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides. Trump posted on social media yesterday “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”. Meanwhile JD Vance also opened the door to negotiations yesterday. We will see.  

Onto France, where the motto seems to be “if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.” Whether this time will be any different is a moot point, but with Lecornu reappointed as PM late last week, they will be having another go at passing a budget and forming a government early this week. Polymarket currently shows a 30% probability that fresh elections will be called before the end of October, and a 63% chance by year-end. There’s also a 20% chance of elections being announced by this Friday.  

In terms of key events this week, the US CPI won't happen as expected on Wednesday, but we now know it will be released on the 24th October. The special treatment during a shutdown is due to the fact that September’s CPI is a crucial input into the government’s calculation of the “cost of living adjustment” (COLA) that is applied each year to several categories of federal outlays. So it’s likely that this is a one-off data wise. The main highlights elsewhere start today with Columbus Day in the US, with bond markets closed but equity markets open. The Annual World Bank and IMF meetings also start today and run through into Saturday. They’ll be plenty to discuss. Tomorrow sees UK employment numbers, the German ZEW, Fed Chair Powell speaking, and the start of US earnings season (more below). Wednesday sees Chinese inflation, Eurozone Industrial Production, and the Fed Beige book and Thursday sees the US NAHB index. There are lots of Central Bankers speakers which you can see in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

As briefly touched upon above, US banks will kick off the Q3 earnings season tomorrow with notable companies reporting including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will follow on Wednesday. In tech, the spotlight will be on semiconductor firms ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday). Other earnings highlights this week include Samsung, Johnson & Johnson and Blackrock.

Recapping last week now and all was relatively quiet until the US/China trade tensions flared up late on Friday. The S&P 500 ended the week down -2.43% (-2.71% Friday) with Tech stocks underperforming significantly on Friday, as the NASDAQ was down -3.56% (-2.53% on the week), and the Magnificent 7 down -3.68% (-2.69% on the week). This was despite news that OpenAI had agreed to purchase tens of billions of dollars of chips from AMD, which sent its shares up +30.5% last week (-7.7% Friday). It was the worst week for the NASDAQ since mid-April, and the worst since mid-May for the S&P 500. The VIX index of volatility rose to 21.7pts (+5.2pts Friday, +5.0pts on the week), which was the highest level since late-June.

European indices were closed before the final leg of Friday’s sell-off, so they did out-perform. France led losses though with a weekly decline of -2.05% (-1.54% Friday). Franco-German 10-year spreads closed the week +2.4bp wider (+1.3bps Friday) at 83.4bps. The Stoxx 600 was down -1.10% (-1.25% Friday), the FTSE 100 -0.67% (-0.86% Friday), and the DAX -0.56% (-1.50% Friday).

In fixed income, US treasury yields saw a significant rally on Friday with 2yr yields ending the week -7.4bps lower (-9.1bps Friday) at 3.50%, 10yr yields were down -8.7bps ( -10.6bps Friday) to 4.03%, and 30yr Treasuries were down -9.3bps (-10.3bps Friday) to 4.62%. 10yr bund yields rallied -5.4bps (-5.9bps Friday) on the week and BTPs were down -5.0bps (-4.7bps Friday). 

Credit markets also saw their biggest wobble since Liberation Day. USD IG spreads were 6bps wider on the week (+4bps Friday), while USD HY spreads were +36bps wider on the week (+22bps Friday). That is the largest weekly backup for both markets since the first week of April, when the initial tariffs were announced. This also comes as there have been growing fears of stress in private credit markets and Business Development Companies, whose stock prices fell sharply even prior to Friday’s selloff. EUR credit markets were not immune to this stress as EUR IG spreads were +4bps wider on the week (+3bps Friday) and EUR HY spreads gapped +37bps wider (+15bps Friday).

In commodities, gold continued its climb to break through $4,000/oz last week and finished the week up +3.38% (+1.03% Friday) at $4,018/oz. Brent crude declined -2.79% (-3.82% Friday) to $62.73/bbl, as the first phase of the Israel-Hamas truce began on Friday day, with thousands of Palestinians already moving back north and the Israeli army leaving the enclave.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 08:41

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