Living On Meds, Vitamin C, & Ibogaine: American Precarity

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Favoring capital over wage earners is the long-established policy of both political parties.

Cribbing a line from a Grateful Dead song ("ain't it a shame") seems appropriate when discussing the prospects of America's burgeoning Precariat Class who are increasingly depending on tips, side hustles, credit cards and buy now, pay later schemes to survive in a stupidly high-cost economy where all the media-hyped "GDP growth" benefits the few at the top, a fact well-documented here courtesy of FRED-Federal Reserve charts.

Living on Meds, Vitamin C and Ibogaine is not a high quality of life, and the only thing that has any real meaning is the quality of life of the majority of the citizenry, particularly the bottom 60% who own the fewest income-producing assets (i.e. capital).

If the quality of life of the majority is tanking, all the glowing economic statistics in the world are nothing but the self-serving bleating of financial toadies, apparatchiks and sycophants who are part of the problem, not the solution, as all the statistics they tout are misdirections.

My focus on the quality of life of America's Precariats is rooted in my own experiences as a Precariat. Construction is notoriously boom and bust, and when work dries up, precarity is the order of the day. In the brutal 1973-74 recession, work dried up and I emptied my boyhood piggy bank to buy a few gallons of gas.

In the brutal recession of 1980-82, I was down to around $100 cash, which in today's money is equivalent to about $25.

Small business owners face a particularly intense level of precarity due to their responsibilities for employees and high fixed costs. When work finally picked up in 1983, cash flow didn't, as banks only release construction loan payments after the work has been done, so my partner and I had to take cash advances on our own credit cards to make payroll for our crews. We couldn't afford to pay ourselves so we lived on fumes until the cash flow increased--often a couple of months.

This is common in the world of small businesses: after paying your crew, there's nothing left for you.

The reality is even outwardly successful small businesses are going broke and the owners are burning out. Expenses are increasing in leaps and bounds, but there's only so much you can charge customers. So small business owners sacrifice themselves to try to make it work--something that is increasingly impossible.

'Doesn't make financial sense': Michelin-starred SF restaurant calls it quits. "Even with the busiest the restaurant's ever been, it just doesn't make financial sense," Stowaway said. "We've done a lot of great things and we're proud, but the financial instability starts to affect everyone, and you have to make big changes."

Free-lance writing has always been poorly paid, and being paid $150 or $250 for an article was typical in the go-go 1990s. I was so far below "poverty level" (generally considered 80% of median income in one's region) in the high-cost, high-income San Francisco Bay Area that to me a "poverty level" income was like a king's ransom.

We hear that high-paying jobs are stressful. Yes, they are, but precarity is stressful without the reward of ample compensation. Most people working for a living are stressed out, and so anti-anxiety / anti-depression meds, pain-killers, etc., are part of the self-medication menu, along with supplements (Vitamin C, etc.). But no med or supplement can fix what's actually broken--our economy and society.

Ibogaine makes the list because it's being studied as a treatment for PTSD / traumatic experiences, addiction and severe depression. These have a high correlation with precarity, for those with these conditions have a difficult time escaping precarity, and precarity is itself a low-level trauma that few economic cheerleaders acknowledge.

Ibogaine Inspires New Treatments for Addiction and Depression: Targeted Molecules Are More Powerful Than SSRI Antidepressants and Avoid Dangerous Side Effects.

What to Know About Ibogaine: Some researchers hope the drug, still illegal in the United States, may be considered as a treatment for addiction, PTSD and brain injuries.

Beneath the endlessly hyped "growth" of the economy, precarity and immiseration are the order of the day for the bottom 60% as wages' share of the national income has continued its 50-year decline.

Where did the trillions of dollars of "growth" go? To those who own capital, not wage earners. That's the only possible outcome of the system in its current configuration. The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America.

The reality of the American economy is people earning $22/hour and $24/hour are living in their cars/vans because rents are unaffordable. In a Snow Paradise, They Live in This Parking Lot: People experiencing homelessness can sleep in their cars in this wealthy ski town in Colorado, but only if they have a job.

So much for trickle-down: the Federal Reserve gooses M3 money supply, and guess who gets the "free money": $1 Trillion of Wealth Was Created for the 19 Richest U.S. Households Last Year The richest of the rich in America control record slice of nation's wealth. (WSJ.com)

Here are the facts: the bottom 50% own a wafer-thin $4 trillion (2.5%) of the nation's $160 trillion in household net worth. The top 10% own $107 trillion and the top 1% own $49.4 trillion--more than ten times the net worth of half the households in America.

The bottom 50%'s share of income-producing assets is signal noise. The real money is made not by owning a depreciating vehicle or a family home, it's made by owning income-producing assets such as stocks, bonds, rental housing, etc., and 90% of income-producing assets are owned by the top 10%.

Since the bottom 60% earn such a modest share of the nation's income, they pay only a sliver of the total federal income tax. So cutting taxes doesn't boost the bottom 60% at all; it simply diverts more of the national income to the 10% who collect the lion's share of both income and capital gains.

Favoring capital over wage earners is the long-established policy of both political parties. This study found that $80 trillion in capital gains has been sheltered from taxation by policies that reward the already-rich. The distribution of capital gains in the United States.

The taboo that can't be acknowledged lest the status quo collapse is that the only way to reduce the precarity of the bottom 60% is to restore the balance between labor and capital by shifting the gains of the economy to wage earners at the expense of the owners of capital.

If we can't manage this restoration, then the status quo will collapse anyway. When people can no longer make enough to pay for essentials, history is rather definitive on the outcome: the status quo is overthrown, and nobody will care whether the nobility is Democrat or Republican.

*  *  *

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 07:20

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Consumers Prop Up the Economy. They’re Showing Signs of Strain. The U.S. consumer has seemed unstoppable in recent years, spending throughout soaring inflation and the highest borrowing costs in decades. That resilience helped to keep at bay a recession that many thought inevitable after the pandemic. (New York Times)

• Walmart Becomes Biggest Retailer Yet to Pass Through Tariff Price Increases: Company plans to raise prices this month and early this summer; other retailers likely will follow. (Wall Street Journal) see also Confused about Trump’s tariff policy? Join the club. So too are economists, trade experts, political prognosticators and Trump himself. Their bewilderment has only intensified with the White House’s recent announcement of trade “deals” with Britain and China. Those quote marks are proper, because it’s unclear how much of a bargain Trump has struck with those countries despite his triumphalist rhetoric. (Los Angeles Times)

• Shifting Product Priorities: What Firms Have Added in the Last Five Years: New polling data shows asset managers prioritizing alternatives, ETFs, and personalized investment solutions to meet evolving investor demands. (Institutional Investor)

• Why Are Muni Bond Funds Losing Money in 2025? Vanguard’s Malloy says that muni underperformance has these funds as ‘cheap as it gets.’ (Morningstar)

• Jimmy Kimmel Roasts His Employer and Boosts ‘60 Minutes’ at Disney Upfront: The late-night host also took his usual potshots at rival networks and streamers. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Two Million Meat Sticks a Day Isn’t Enough for Chomps’ CEO: Rashid Ali, head of one of the US’s fastest-growing food brands, can’t keep up with demand. (Bloomberg) see also The End of Chicken-Breast Dominance: The price of boneless chicken thighs is finally catching up with the price of white meat. (The Atlantic)

• How to Live a Miserable Life: Inversion is a mental model that flips the script on traditional problem-solving. Rather than look at a problem in a linear, forward, logical manner, you think about it in reverse. It forces you to think differently about the problem—to see it from a new angle, from a fresh perspective. It provides a unique lens to simplify the complex. Well, there is one complex, foundational problem that is truly universal: How do you live a good life? Let’s harness the power of inversion to address it: Here are 20 ways to live a miserable life… (The Curiosity Chronicle)

• The rise of the regretful Trump voter: Trump is squandering one of his biggest 2024 electoral accomplishments. (Vox)

• 25 Years of AudaciousSmoke-FreeMolecularBurger-CentricHipster한식#InfluencerOutdoorNostalgic Dining in New York City: A timeline of major food moments — restaurant openings, innovations, fads, pop culture cameos, blackouts and bans — that changed life in New York City in the first quarter of the 21st century. (New York Times)

• Nicolas Cage is NFL coach John Madden in upcoming film: Amazon MGM Studios released a first look at the film “Madden.” (NBC News)

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business with John Montgomery, founder and CEO of Bridgeway Capital.  The firm, which was founded in 1993, manages ~$5B in assets; they have become known for donating 50% of their annual company profits to non-profit organizations.

 

A Market Puke and Rally

Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Jaw-Dropping Lawsuit Accuses 'New Soros' Of Proposing 'Threesomes', Other Sexual Harassment

Swiss billionaire Hansjorg Wyss—dubbed the “New Soros” by conservatives for his funding of leftwing causes—has been accused of sexual harassment in what is being described as a “jaw-dropping” lawsuit. 

Craig Barritt—Getty Images for Oceana

The lawsuit, filed in California's San Luis Obispo County Superior Court last month, claims that Wyss exposed himself, “brazenly groped,” and made other unwanted sexual advances toward Madison Busby before forcing her to resign her job, according to a 'jaw-dropping' lawsuit filed in San Luis Obispo County Superior Court on April 25.

New York Post reports: 

Busby, 30, met her now-husband Bryce Mullins in 2019, when he was helping Wyss manage the 2,700-acre winery, Halter Ranch. The two later began dating and moved in together on the Paso Robles property. Mullins filed a separate suit April 1 alleging that Wyss fired him after Busby complained about the sexual misconduct in a private email to the billionaire — and reneged on providing him up to $30 million in equity interest in Halter Ranch after Mullins had operated the winery for six years, starting when he was just 26 years old.

Early on, Wyss “shared unwelcome stories about his sexual exploits and various affairs,” said “how much he enjoyed having a threesome, even with another man,” and suggested once “if Bryce is not behaving, you can join me in bed,” according to the Busby suit.The “abusive and predatory behavior” also included asking Mullins for “sexy” photos of Busby — and even groping her butt before she started working for him in September 2019, the suit alleges.

Wyss eventually floated a “foursome” with the couple and another friend of his named “Lori” and even subjected Busby to a live phone sex Facetime call between himself and the woman, the suit goes on. 

By summer 2024, Busby had expressed discontent with what what calls “unreasonable expectations” and “inappropriate behavior and misconduct” exhibited by Wyss, who, the lawsuit claims, allegedly conceded that if Busby "ever went after me for sexual harassment, you would win.” She later quit her job, citing “her own anxiety and distress,” per the lawsuit. 

A representative for the winery strongly denied the explosive claims laid out in the filing. 

“Through all these years, they never complained about the owner’s conduct, or simply declined to spend so much time with him, until after they voluntarily left their employment at the winery in 2024,” a statement from the winery’s press representative reads. “The allegations in the complaint are not true and we intend to vigorously advance the facts that surround their time at the winery and their departure.”

Wyss is no stranger to sexual harassment allegations - having previously settled out of court for $1.5 million with a Colorado woman who claimed she experienced sexual abuse while employed at his Wyss Foundation, according to the Daily Caller.

Wyss, a foreign national who sold his medical device company Synthes for nearly $20 billion to Johnson & Johnson, has poured millions of dollars into leftwing organizations focused on climate change through his own foundation and groups connected to the dark money network operated by the shadowy Arabella Advisors. He has also supported leftwing causes via his advocacy group the Berger Action Fund, which has reportedly donated $339 million to non-profits since 2016. 

"What was important for him was to find out that he could exert an influence through his foundation," Heidi Wyss, the billionaire's sister, once wrote. "At a single meeting, the board of trustees quite often allocated several million dollars. Thus behind the scenes a Swiss plays an important part in American politics." 

“The Wyss Foundation and Berger Action Fund have no involvement with this matter,” a spokesperson said in a statement obtained by the Post. “The organizations’ charitable activities are totally separate from those of the Halter Ranch.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 06:55

The Nuclear Missile Launch Sites Buried Under Greenland's Ice Revealed

Camp Century, part of a secret Pentagon plan called Project Iceworm, was designed in the late 1950s as a hidden network of nuclear missile launch sites beneath Greenland’s ice. Built in 1959 and abandoned by 1967 due to unstable ice, the facility was meant to store 600 medium-range ballistic missiles.

Today, it lies buried under at least 100 feet of ice, according to the Wall Street Journal, who wrote a lengthy piece on the sites this week.

Photos: WSJ

Although presented as a research station, its real military purpose remained classified until 1996. Nina Erofeeva explained: "The first [licenses] have been received for the creation of oil storage facilities, in the Krasnoyarsk territory. This was also an unusual case. Russia has never had oil storage facilities. Oil has always been pumped through pipelines. Given recent events and the lack of infrastructure in the Arctic zone, oil storage facilities are needed in several regions. Accordingly, oil will be placed in these oil storage facilities so as not to burn it during pilot development."

With 21 tunnels stretching nearly two miles under the ice, the base housed around 200 personnel and operated on nuclear power. Robert Weiss, a physician stationed there in the early 1960s, recalled: “We did realize that it was important; that the Russians could come over the top of the Pole.”

Life at Camp Century was harsh but bearable. “When I got there, it was blowing snow and minus 50 degrees,” Weiss said, remembering how he spent weeks underground. “It wasn’t very hard living from that standpoint.” Joking about the isolation, he added: “We used to say that there was a pretty girl behind every tree. Of course, there was one problem: There were no trees.”

Photos: WSJ

The Journal writes that the base’s full scale wasn’t revealed until April last year, when NASA’s cryospheric scientist, Greene, captured the first complete images using advanced ice-penetrating radar. “You see how the buildings and tunnels were connected, how people had to move about in their day-to-day life, and think what a wild experience it must have been to be stationed there,” Greene said.

The U.S. presence in Greenland has long been controversial. During the Cold War, the U.S. operated 17 bases there and stationed about 10,000 troops. Today, fewer than 200 remain at Pituffik Space Base.

Tensions rose again when President Trump openly criticized Denmark for not securing Greenland and even suggested taking the island by force for U.S. security. Denmark reminded Washington of the 1951 treaty that already allows U.S. bases there but firmly rejected any takeover.

Photos: WSJ

Denmark’s uneasy compromise with U.S. military interests goes back to World War II. In 1941, a Danish envoy in Washington handed control of Greenland’s defense to the U.S. without Copenhagen’s consent. After the war, the U.S. offered to buy Greenland for $100 million, but Denmark refused.

“In the 1940s Denmark learned that if you say no to the U.S., the U.S. will go ahead anyway,” said Ulrik Pram Gad of the Danish Institute for International Studies. “Denmark has been allowed to maintain sovereignty over Greenland by outsourcing some of it—security—to the U.S.”

The U.S.’s undisclosed storage of nuclear weapons in Greenland and a 1968 crash of a nuclear-armed B-52 near Thule Air Base caused long-lasting tensions. More recently, reports of increased U.S. espionage and Trump’s interest in buying Greenland have pushed Greenlanders closer to Denmark.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 04:15

Ukraine Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Reportedly In Final Stages

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ukraine is reportedly moving closer to adopting Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, a move that could bolster its financial resilience amid the ongoing war with Russia.

Lawmakers are reportedly working on a Bitcoin national reserve proposal, with a draft bill in its final stages, according to Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a member of parliament who confirmed the plan to local media outlet Incrypted.

The proposal was announced during the CRYPTO 2025 conference in Kyiv on Feb. 6. 

“We will soon submit a draft law from the industry allowing the creation of crypto reserves,” Zhelezniak said.

Cointelegraph reached out to Zhelezniak for comment on the bill’s status but had not received a response by publication.

Bitcoin has gained international attention as a national reserve asset since the election of US President Donald Trump in November 2024. On March 7, Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve seeded with BTC confiscated from criminal cases.

Source: Margo Martin

A month later, Swedish MP Rickard Nordin issued an open letter urging Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson to consider adopting Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, citing its growing recognition as a “hedge against inflation,” Cointelegraph reported on April 11.

Legal challenges may delay adoption

While Ukraine’s push for a national Bitcoin reserve marks a potentially historic shift in crypto policy, it may require “significant legal change,” according to Kyrylo Khomiakov, regional head of CEE, Central Asia and Africa, at crypto exchange Binance.

“We commend Ukraine’s ambition to establish a strategic crypto reserve,” he told Cointelegraph. 

“Implementing such a reserve would necessitate significant legal changes, indicating that this process will not be swift.”

He added, “Another positive aspect is that this initiative will likely lead to greater regulatory clarity in Ukraine, as the government will need to articulate its stance more clearly.”

Ukraine was reportedly planning to legalize cryptocurrencies in early 2025 with the finalization of a draft bill in coordination with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to Daniil Getmantsev, head of the tax committee of the Verkhovna Rada.

On April 8, Ukraine’s financial regulator proposed taxing certain crypto transactions as personal income with a rate of up to 23%, excluding crypto-to-crypto transactions and stablecoins.

Not all voices in Ukraine’s crypto industry are optimistic about the timing of the proposal.

”The country is broke. More than 50% of the budget is in grants and loans from the European Union,” said Michael Chobanian, the founder of Ukraine-based Kuna exchange.

“The population is decreasing at the fastest rate in the world. Men are kidnapped and sent to the army against their will. What kind of BTC reserves are we talking about here? This is done only to divert your attention,” Chobanian claimed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 03:30

Global Population Is Projected To Begin Declining In 2085

The global population is undergoing a major demographic shift.

As fertility rates fall and life expectancy rises, average ages are climbing in nearly every country, while population growth is steadily tapering off.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, visualizes global population growth and average age from 1980 to 2100, based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, April 2025 edition.

How the World Will Age as Population Growth Falls

As of 2025, the average person is 33.6 years old, up from 26.5 years in 1980. Over that same period, global population growth has slowed from 1.8% to 0.9% in 2025.

This trend is expected to continue through the end of the century, as shown in the table below, which breaks down the projected average age and population growth rate from 1980 to 2100:

Year Average population growth (%) Average population age (years) Lower range of expected population growth (%) Upper range of expected population growth (%) 1980 1.8% 26.5 0.9% 2.9% 1985 1.8% 26.9 0.8% 2.9% 1990 1.8% 27.3 0.8% 2.8% 1995 1.5% 28.0 0.5% 2.6% 2000 1.4% 28.9 0.6% 2.4% 2005 1.3% 29.8 0.5% 2.4% 2010 1.3% 30.7 0.4% 2.4% 2015 1.2% 31.6 0.3% 2.4% 2020 1.0% 32.5 0.2% 2.0% 2025 0.9% 33.6 0.1% 1.9% 2030 0.8% 34.7 0.0% 1.7% 2035 0.7% 35.7 -0.1% 1.6% 2040 0.6% 36.6 -0.2% 1.4% 2045 0.5% 37.4 -0.2% 1.3% 2050 0.4% 38.1 -0.3% 1.1% 2055 0.3% 38.8 -0.4% 1.0% 2060 0.3% 39.5 -0.4% 0.9% 2065 0.2% 40.1 -0.5% 0.8% 2070 0.2% 40.7 -0.5% 0.7% 2075 0.1% 41.2 -0.6% 0.6% 2080 0.0% 41.6 -0.6% 0.5% 2085 0.0% 42.0 -0.6% 0.4% 2090 -0.1% 42.5 -0.6% 0.3% 2095 -0.1% 42.9 -0.6% 0.2% 2100 -0.1% 43.2 -0.7% 0.2%

The global population is projected to begin declining in 2085, as the average age rises to 42 years. By the year 2100, the average person is expected to be 43 years old, with population growth at -0.1%.

However, the trend is divided across countries. Advanced economies like Japan, Germany, and Italy are aging rapidly and seeing population declines. Meanwhile, emerging economies like India still have growing populations, but the growth is slowing down.

The gradual decline is largely due to falling fertility rates globally, along with improvements in healthcare and life expectancy resulting in larger senior populations.

The Impacts of an Aging Population

Many economies are reaching their demographic turning points—when the share of the working-age population in their total population begins declining.

European countries like Germany, France, and Italy crossed this mark pre-2000, and are now among the world’s “super-aged societies”. The United States, the U.K., and China have followed in the last two decades.

But what does this mean for economic growth and the global economy?

Population aging carries several economic challenges. These include shrinking labor forces, slower productivity growth, and increased fiscal pressure on pension and healthcare systems.

However, there is a silver lining: the IMF notes that while people are living longer, they’re also aging more healthfully. This could result in longer working lives and enhance productivity among older workers, potentially easing the economic impacts of an aging population.

If you enjoyed this infographic, check out A Visual Breakdown of Where Economic Power Lies in 2025, on the Voronoi app.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 02:45

Why Is The Secret German Spy Report On The AfD Party Only Filled With Public Statements?

Via Remix News,

The German domestic spy service, the Office of the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), has released a 1,100-page report on the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which it used to label the party a “confirmed” right-wing extremist party. The report is huge and reads like it was written by Antifa, but that was to be expected. However, one interesting point is that it contains only public statements, including quotes made by AfD politicians and a lot of memes.

Why is that?

We already know that the BfV is secretly surveilling AfD members in certain German states, mostly in the east, where the party is “confirmed right-wing extremist” already. This designation allows for the BfV in those states to partake in extraordinary surveillance powers over AfD members, including reading their chats and emails. Presumably, they can also track their browsing history, and perhaps they are even listening in on their conversations at home.

What this means is that the BfV has plenty of statements, memes and content to use based on private statements, but it is purposefully choosing not to use them. After all, a certain number of those AfD members, in private moments, probably also express opinions, post memes, or share thoughts that the BfV would love to include in a secret report on the party, which many hope will eventually justify an outright ban.

Again, why is the BfV not using these private statements?

There are multiple reasons.

For one, a big part of the apparatus of spy agencies is to obtain information, but not release it to the public. The public may not be able to stomach such personal and private information and the means that were used to obtain it. Since the Edward Snowden revelations, and even before then, we have become acutely aware that we have accepted devices into our lives and homes that can be used to spy on us on a scale never seen before in history. However, even now — even after all this information has been revealed — I believe nearly all of us still cannot quite grasp what this means — nor do we want to.

Yes, we know that AfD members are being spied on across Germany. Their emails are read, their phone calls are recorded. AI is being used to sort out keywords of interest to the security services. However, nobody really knows how this information is being processed and what it is being used for, or even who is reading it. The spies who control this information have extraordinary power. As a significant portion of them are now far left, at least in Germany, they believe they are acting as a bulwark against the rise of Nazism, and the ends justify the means when it comes to the AfD. There are other psychological motives at work, of course, as spy agencies are on the whole very good at keeping their secrets, not even necessarily because of internal controls, but because the spies are dedicated to their mission. There is, also, the sense of power that comes with being the watcher, and for many spies, this is a powerful intoxicant. They know, while you are in the dark.

In practice, these spies know which AfD members are having affairs, their personal struggles, their health issues, their financial situation, and even their personal browsing history. In other words, they know their targets better in many cases than even their close friends and family. The spies of the world, not just in Germany, are now in many ways gods and mind readers, seeing through the walls people build up around themselves and accessing their darkest fears and secrets — all due to rapid advances in technology and the rise of smartphones.

Earlier this month, commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek, the famed Dutch activist reported that she was alerted that her phone was being breached with Pegasus-like spyware, mainly produced in Israel, which can unlock essentially every aspect of her personal life, including chats, location data, photos, contacts, and so on. With this software, they can even record her in real time, including personal conversations in her home, as well as turn on her camera to record her in her most personal moments.

After having been alerted that the deep state is spying on me through mercenary spyware, I've been feeling like there is someone standing in the room with me at all times.

Now, I'm not naive: exposing the wicked ways of the establishment is quite literally at the core of my… pic.twitter.com/16dXkeJMAq

— Eva Vlaardingerbroek (@EvaVlaar) May 7, 2025

This software, and software like it, has been used on thousands of people, including journalists, politicians, and activists, sometimes with deadly results. It is not just the right, but far-left activists have also been targeted, including human rights activists. It is also unclear how long Vlaardingerbroek may have been targeted in such a manner. Previous versions of Apple iOS may have not been able to detect this software on her phone. In short, much of her personal life may already be in a database somewhere waiting to be used by intelligence.

Vlaardingerbroek is not in the AfD or even German, but she has backed the party, and she and people like her are most certainly the target of intelligence operatives in countries across Europe.

The point is that this software and the means for surveilling people are very unsettling. In a privacy-minded country like Germany, revealing the scale of surveillance being used against the AfD may be a scandal within itself, and could taint the entire report, which at the end of the day, should be used to justify a ban of the AfD.

There may have been voices in the BfV who were calling to use secretly recorded data in the report as well, but the agency also knew this report would eventually be leaked and made public. The agency does not appear to want to divulge who they are surveilling, what information they have about them, and how they obtained this information.

Another important consideration is also to be taken into account. The BfV decided it did not need to include this secret information in the report because it is likely confident that it can get what it wants using public statements alone. It can still keep the scale of its surveillance secret and get the ban it desires — at least that is the gamble the agency is making.

Surveillance is everywhere, it is being practiced by the left, the right, and many foreign governments are also active in the West, collecting data on targets. So, this is not a uniquely German issue by any means. However, if the establishment in Germany becomes truly desperate, there is probably a secret report waiting that includes far more information and personal details than many Germans want to believe is possible.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/16/2025 - 02:00

It's Time To End Federal Control Of Education And Restore Parental Authority

Authored by Sam Sorbo via American Greatness,

For decades, Americans have watched as federal involvement in education expanded, ballooning into a behemoth bureaucracy that imposes top-down mandates while divorcing parents from their rightful role as the primary educators of their children, while failing to achieve academic success for students.

If we are serious about fixing our children’s education, we must restore parental authority and end federal control of education.

America’s Founding Fathers never intended for Washington, D.C., to dictate how children in Kansas or Kentucky learn to read, write, and think. Education was, and should be, a local and parental matter. President Donald Trump rightly stated in Executive Order 13985, Combating Race and Sex Stereotyping, “The experiment of controlling American education through federal programs and dollars…has plainly failed our children, our teachers, and our families.” That failure is clearly documented by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), often referred to as “The Nation’s Report Card.” Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, NAEP scores had stagnated or declined. Today, nearly 40% of fourth graders read below basic level, despite record federal funding. Billions of taxpayer dollars have produced declining literacy.

It’s not just ineffective—it’s indefensible.

Federal education initiatives have repeatedly promised results, especially for low-income students, but have failed to deliver. Programs like Title I and Head Start have cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the years with no consistent academic gains to show for them. Similarly, federal control over college grants and loans has inflated tuition and buried young Americans under a mountain of debt.

The evidence is clear: centralized, bureaucratic control undermines education.

As the founder of the “They’re YOUR Kids Foundation,” I work with parents every day who feel helpless. The system fails their children academically and often undermines their values. If we truly want to empower families, we must strip away the federal red tape and hand the reins back to those who know and love their children best: parents.

Representative Barry Moore of Alabama has proposed legislation (H.R. 2691, “Eliminate the Department of Education Act,” Congress.gov) to eliminate USED and redirect education funding based on what residents in each state pay in federal income taxes. But simply shifting USED’s functions to other agencies, as some proposals suggest, won’t solve the problem—it just moves the bureaucracy around.

That’s why I support the US Parents Involved in Education (USPIE) Blueprint: a five-step plan to close the U.S. Department of Education and return education governance to the states. The Blueprint is simple, sensible, and long overdue:

1. Return all program management and funding to the states.

2. Repeal laws like the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) that enable federal overreach.

3. Privatize college loan programs through local financial institutions for increased accountability.

4. Eliminate all divisions and spending within USED.

5. Reduce federal tax collection so states retain education funds directly.

We have a singular opportunity to implement meaningful change, including a federal tax credit system that empowers parents to direct their own children’s education. Under this proposal:

• Parents who homeschool or choose private education would receive a Child Tax Credit equal to the federal per-pupil expenditure.

• Federal taxpayers of households with children attending government schools would prompt their per-pupil allocation to be block-granted to their respective states.

This model respects choice while avoiding the pitfalls of government entanglement. Voucher programs, while well-intentioned, often bring government regulation with them. The 1980 Supreme Court ruling involving Hillsdale College affirmed that any institution accepting federal funds—even indirectly through student aid—is subject to federal control. [Grove City College v. Bell, 465 U.S. 555 (1984)] That’s the Trojan horse we must avoid.

We must stop pretending we can reform federal education mandates and instead recognize them for what they are: unconstitutional, ineffective, and dangerous to parental rights.

As a mother who homeschooled three children, I know firsthand the value of individualized learning guided by a parent who knows their child’s needs and aspirations. Education is not simply the memorization of facts or test preparation. It is the formation of character, virtue, curiosity, and conviction. That formation is best entrusted to families—not bureaucrats in Washington.

President Trump’s 2025 executive order declared that closing the Department of Education would “restore the proper role of families and local governments in education.” But that can only happen if we also change the funding structure and remove all federal strings. If not, we risk replacing one failed model with another, abandoning the nation’s most precious resource, and ultimately forfeiting our very future.

It’s time to reject the lie that Washington knows best. Parents are not the problem. They are the solution. Local communities, not federal mandates, are best equipped to nurture the next generation of citizens. And education must once again become the deeply personal, values-rooted family journey it was meant to be.

We have a roadmap. We have legislation. And most importantly, we have an awakening of parents across this country who are saying, Enough is enough.

Let’s seize this moment to make education truly free—by making it family-led.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 23:00

The DoD Audit Conundrum: Accountability Over Accounting

Via RealClearPolitics,

The Department of Defense (DoD) has failed every audit since 2018, costing taxpayers over $1 billion each year, marked by "disclaimers of opinion," along with thousands of formal “notices of findings and recommendations” (NFRs) from the auditors. The DoD Inspector General’s FY 2024 Agency Financial Report documented 28 material weaknesses and more than $1 trillion in asset discrepancies, leading auditors to issue their seventh consecutive disclaimer.

Audits of the DoD’s financial statements, guided by Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board (FASAB) rules based on private-sector Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), assess the DoD’s $850 billion budget using the profit-driven reporting mechanisms of balance sheets and income statements. This approach is suitable for private-sector, profit-seeking businesses like Boeing, IBM, and General Motors, but not for the DoD, a public-sector, taxpayer-funded federal agency whose primary purpose is to defend the homeland, not generate profits. 

This mismatch stems from the 1990 Chief Financial Officers (CFO) Act, which, although well-intended, has unfortunately caused Congress and the public to prioritize financial health over military accountability. Rather than seeking auditor opinions, Congress and taxpayers should look for answers to questions like: Did $5 billion buy 55 F-35 jets? Did $18 billion deliver five ships? Did $330 billion in Operations and Maintenance obligations ensure wartime readiness?

The complete inability of GAAP-based financial accounting and reporting to address such questions or explain the causes of ongoing inefficiency and waste, such as the Navy’s $1.8 billion wasted on cruiser modernization (2024 GAO audit), highlights GAAP’s irrelevance for an agency that spends, not earns.

Instead, the DoD should implement a budgetary audit process focusing on the Statement of Budgetary Resources (SBR), incorporating managerial cost accounting as outlined in the Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards (SFFAS) 4, and utilizing AI-driven forensic analysis through the DoD’s Advana data analytics platform.

This transition would better synchronize audits with the DoD’s Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) process, ensuring that the $850 billion enhances security, not just balances the books.

The Problem: Scale and Systemic Flaws

The DoD’s complexity dwarfs private-sector firms. The FY 2023 DoD Agency Financial Report revealed that the DoD employed 2.1 million service members and 778,000 civilians across 4,600 global sites, managing $851.7 billion in discretionary funds—half of U.S. discretionary spending—and $3.8 trillion in assets, 70% of the government’s total.

Tracking these resources across 4,500 financial systems makes monitoring obligations and matching them to appropriations difficult; at least 232 are critical for internal controls over data entry, transaction processing, and reporting—an auditing nightmare.

For example, the 2022 GAO Audit found discrepancies in 61% of $3.5 trillion in assets, and the 2024 DoD Financial Agency report found 28 material weaknesses, showing weak internal accounting controls, like failing to reconcile Fund Balances with Treasury (FBwT)—akin to a checkbook not matching a bank statement.

Issues include outdated systems, manual data entry, and training gaps. A  2023 GAO report noted that 18 out of 22 financial systems faced workforce shortages, hindering modernization. Further, multi-year programs like aircraft development blur committed versus available funds, complicating audits. The result? Seven years of disclaimers, with headlines claiming the DoD “can’t pass an audit” and wastes taxpayer money.

But is the DoD truly failing its fiduciary responsibility, or is it trapped in a flawed GAAP-based process irrelevant to its purpose? Cultural and political pressures, like Congress’s demand for “clean audits” to signal fiscal responsibility, perpetuate this misalignment, distracting from the real question: Are funds delivering security?

Why GAAP and FASAB Fail the DoD

GAAP, and by extension FASAB, measures profitability and equity for revenue-generating businesses. Boeing’s $66 billion revenue and $13 billion loss fit this model, but the DoD’s $850 billion budget is all outflows—$5 billion for F-35s, $145 billion for R&D, $330 billion for operations and maintenance, with no income to tally.

FASAB’s directed balance sheets show $3.5 trillion in assets and a “net cost” of $821 billion spent in FY2022, mimicking GAAP’s business-focused standards. However, 37% of unverifiable assets, according to a GAO Independent Auditor report, aren’t a “loss” but record-keeping issues. In particular, material weaknesses contributing to $2.4 trillion or 61% in untracked assets and $14 billion in “missing” parts, flagging “ bookkeeping “control gaps, not “mission” gaps. 

Former Navy Comptroller Russ Rumbaugh made this point in a recent interview:  “DoD is very accountable, it’s just not auditable,” Rumbaugh told the conference. “We know where the things that go ‘boom’ are, we know where the dollars get spent, [but] to answer those questions [to the satisfaction of auditors], we have to go ask a bunch of stove-piped systems.”

The DoD’s 4,800 sites and 2,000+ budget line items for RDT&E and Procurement alone defy GAAP’s clean ledgers, asking “Is it financially healthy?” when the real question is, “What did the taxpayer get?”

A Better Approach: Managerial Cost Accounting

A budgetary review process using managerial cost accounting organizes financial data to help DoD leaders allocate resources efficiently—a cost-benefit approach, not a balance sheet. In a published paper, A Proposal to Emphasize Managerial Cost  Accounting in the Department of Defense, Dr. Christopher Hanks, a former RAND analyst, argues that the DoD has neglected this tool, which is “unappreciated and underused.”

He argues that the Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards 4 (SFFAS 4) mandated by Congress tracks costs to outputs and is a better approach to evaluating the DoD budget, ensuring funds align with goals. For example, $82 billion in aid for Ukraine can be traced to emergency laws and evaluated for outcomes.

Unlike GAAP, this approach monitors obligations (commitments), ensuring compliance with appropriations and justifying variances, not chasing asset-liability matches. Instead, it should assess how budget approvals are documented. Are controls preventing overspending? Are goods being produced efficiently and providing the intended capabilities? This shift better aligns with Congress’s mandate to spend effectively, not mimic private-sector accounting.

Aligning Managerial Cost Accounting to DoD’s Budget Process

The DoD uses a detailed, although cumbersome, process to develop its annual budget. It goes through several steps: aligning the president’s and defense secretary’s security strategy through planning, developing proposed funding for programs that support it, converting those programs into budget requests, and executing it, or what is referred to as the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) process.

This process was first introduced in the 1960s by Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who brought this business-like budgeting process from Ford Motor Company to the DoD. It has undergone several adjustments and improvements, creating an arduous but, for the most part, effective method. However, it routinely receives scrutiny and is the subject of recent reform and questionable overhaul requests.

For instance, the recent congressionally directed PPBE Reform Commission has called for stronger, more responsive connections between strategy and spending within the PPBE process. However, the commission's primary goal is to offer recommendations for the PPBE process that meet Congress’s demand for a “clean audit opinion.”

While the commission made several strong recommendations to enhance the PPBE process, it neglected to tackle the elephant in the room: the way the DoD conducts audits. Instead, it reinforced a business-oriented audit approach, focusing on better managing financial statements rather than recognizing that imitating them is the issue.

Integrating SFFAS 4 into PPBE is a better reform solution – tracking obligations to capabilities (e.g., $145 billion in R&D for 10 hypersonic missiles) and ensuring that funds deliver results. Changing the term “costs” to “obligations” (both measured in dollars) allows SFFAS 4 to more effectively support PPBE reform by addressing the question, “Does $850 billion of approved obligation authority in the DoD’s budget, executed as planned, fulfill the president’s security strategy?”

AI-Driven Forensic Approach for Execution

One of the primary challenges in achieving a clean audit is reconciling how the DoD distributes funds. Thousands of systems, hundreds of checkbooks, and various financial systems create an almost insurmountable bookkeeping task.

Until recently, manual efforts by thousands of auditors—costing $4 billion in audit remediation since 2018—were necessary to examine DoD finances as if the DoD were a business struggling to reconcile billions in obligations and payments due to chaotic financial systems, poor bookkeeping, and internal control challenges—essentially trying to fit a square peg (accounting) into a round hole (accountability).

With the advent of AI and a more forensic accounting approach to execution, it has become possible to scour the DoD’s 4,500 financial systems to trace obligations, detect fraud and waste, and confirm legal transactions. Using the Advana platform, AI-driven forensic accounting can trace questionable spending, such as the DoD Inspector General’s 2023 report that found “47 (or 80 percent) of the 59 contracts reviewed, DoD contracting officers did not obtain sufficient documentation to support their positive determination of financial responsibility…”

What needs to change

Is a traditional business audit suitable for the DoD, which does not generate revenue but relies on an annual influx of capital? Like most federal government agencies, the DoD depends on approved budgets from Congress to continue existing and operating. Like all businesses, it does not rely on sales to customers and profits for investors to assess its financial health.

What needs to change is a more practical approach to assessing the budget, one that seeks accountability in the utilization of capital rather than a strict audit of expenditures. Did the obligations effectively support the mission and achieve the intended outcomes? Were the obligations used efficiently, effectively, and correctly accounted for?

Furthermore, can the organization monitor every dollar of its commitments to ensure alignment with strategic objectives and compliance with legal requirements? Can internal controls effectively reduce fraud, waste, or abuse, and can this assessment inform next year's budget request by considering anticipated challenges and new initiatives?

This approach to the DoD audit situation is not merely a cultural shift; it signifies a new method for assessing how efficiently and effectively taxpayer funds are utilized by the DoD and how they support future funding needs.

How It Works

• SFFAS 4 for PPB tracks costs to capabilities: The $44 billion for F-35s allocates $30 billion to aircraft, $10 billion to spares, and $4 billion to training, aligning with national defense goals. It measures unit costs (e.g., cost per jet) and ensures funds are cost-effective and provide the intended capability.
• AI Forensics for Execution: AI using Advana analytics verifies obligations traced to laws, enhancing accountability—did $5 billion produce 55 F-35s? It flags waste, like $80 million in misallocated funds, by analyzing hundreds of DoD “checkbooks” across systems. A well-funded AI pilot could recover billions and trace them to obligations.
• Restoring Advana’s Role:  Advana, mandated by the 2018 NDAA, has drifted into logistics and readiness but should refocus on its initially intended “audit” role. Additional funding could integrate SFFAS 4 and AI, streamlining financial tracking and quickly paying for itself within a few years.

Recommendations

• Amend the 1990 CFO Act by limiting the requirement for financial-statement audits at the DoD to the Statement of Budgetary Resources (SBR) alone.  Clean auditor opinions on SBRs will reflect, among other things, solutions to reconciling DoD’s checkbook problems and ensure that intended deliverables (e.g., $4 billion = ships) are tied to appropriations.
• Revise the FASAB mandate to prioritize SFFAS 4 managerial obligation accounting to support budgeting and AI forensics for execution, replacing GAAP/FASAB’s financial focus with a more accountable approach to DoD’s budget.
• Mandate SFFAS 4 in PPBE: The FY2026 NDAA should lock SFFAS 4 into budgeting, splitting $145 billion R&D into traceable costs (e.g., 10 hypersonic missiles that produce intended capability), not vague assets.
• nbsp;       Fund AI Forensics: Launch a DoD Inspector General AI pilot, testing, for example, $50 billion in procurement. Scale it to $850 billion, flagging obligations like “F-35 spares and parts to meet future operations and maintenance requirements.”
• Reintegrate Advana: Refocus Advana on audit readiness with proper funding, incorporating SFFAS 4 and AI to trace funds. Train financial staff and associate managers to support implementation.

Conclusion

The DoD’s audit failures stem from applying GAAP’s profit lens to a spender’s mission. Seven disclaimers, over $1 trillion in asset discrepancies, and 28 weaknesses prove FASAB’s flaws. SFFAS 4 and AI forensics offer a fix: $18 billion = 5 ships, $5 billion = 55 F-35s, traceable to law, not ledgers.

Amending the CFO Act, mandating SFFAS 4, and funding AI and Advana will deliver accountability. Despite challenges like training and resistance, a phased approach ensures feasibility. Congress and taxpayers deserve answers to “What’d we get?” not “Where’s the receipt?” This shift makes $850 billion count.

Major General Don McGregor (USAF, ret.) is a combat veteran and an F-16 fighter pilot. While serving as a General Officer in the Pentagon, he was the National Guard Director of Strategy, Policy, Plans, and International Affairs, advising a four-star Joint Chiefs of Staff member. He is an expert in defense strategy, policy, planning, and global security and has been published in several defense news outlets. He holds a B.A. in Computer Science from the University of Minnesota and a master’s degree in Diplomacy and International Conflict Resolution from Norwich University.  General McGregor would like to acknowledge Dr. Christopher Hanks, a defense analyst and working capital funds expert, for his review and beneficial suggestions regarding the content. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 20:30

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for April. The consensus is for 1.360 million SAAR, up from 1.324 million SAAR in March.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May).

Buffett Liquidated Citigroup, Dumped Financial Stocks As US Entered Trade War : Full 13F Breakdown

Warren Buffett already stunned the Berkshire faithful with his "shocking" announcement last weekend that the 94 year old billionaire was, gasp, finally retiring as CEO of the $1 trillion+ conglomerate. Luckily, there were no surprises in Buffett's latest 13F filing published at the close today: while Buffett did not add any new positions in the quarter that preceded Trump’s trade war, he did liquidate two of his previous large holdings, and continued to trim positions in financial stocks while adding to a handful others.

Buffett started off the last year of his tenure as CEO of Berkshire by exiting his once-huge position in Citigroup, while also shrinking his holdings in Capital One Financial and continuing to trim his longtime stake in Bank of America.

While it is still a top 5 position valued at $26.4 billion at the end of Q1, Buffett started selling his BofA stake in July last year, without providing any explanation for the move. He now owns 8.3% of the US lender and is no longer its biggest shareholder, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Berkshire also fully liquidated its stake in Brazil’s Nubank, which has grown into one of the world’s biggest digital banks since its 2013 founding. Berkshire bought a $500 million stake before the bank went public in 2021. The stock has gained 46% since. 

On the plus side, Buffett added to his stake in Constellation Brands, which now totals 6.6%, or $2.2 billion; he opened the new position in the alcohol distributor in the last quarter of 2024. He also bought more Sirius XM Holdings and Occidental Petroleum, where he is by far the largest holder with 27% of the shares outstanding. In addition, the company requested confidentiality treatment from the Securities and Exchange Commission, meaning Berkshire was allowed to omit one of more holdings in its filing Thursday.

After aggressively selling down his stake in Apple for much of 2023 and 2024, his AAPL shares were untouched in Q1 and still represents the billionaire’s portfolio’s most valuable holding.

Here is a full breakdown of what Berkshire did in Q1. It added to position in:

• Occidental Petroleum, +763,017 million shares to 264.9 million shares, or $13.1 billion as of March 31
• Verisign, +18.423 shares to 13.3 million shares or $3.4 billion
• SiriusXM, +2.3 million shares to 119.8 million shares, or $2.7 billion
• Constellation Brands, +6.4 million shares to 12.009 million, or $2.2 billion
• Dominos Pizza, +238,613 shares to 2.6 million shares, or $1.2 billion
• Pool Corp, +865,311 shares to 1.5 million shares, or $466 million
• Heico Corp, +112,401 shares to 1.2 million shares, or $245.2 million

It reduced its positions in:

• Bank of America, by 48.7 million shares to 631.6 million shares, or $26.4 billion as of March 31
• Davita, by 953,091 shares to 35.1 million shares, or $5.4 billion
• Liberty Media, by 3.3 million shares to 19.4 million shares or $1.4 billion
• Capital One, by 300K shares to 7.150 million shares, or $1.3 billion
• T-Mobile, by 469K shares to 3.9 million shares, or $1.0 billion
• Charter Communications, by 7500 shares to 1.98 million shares, or $731 million

Buffett largely refrained from making large acquisitions in recent years, instead building a cash pile that reached nearly $350 billion by the end of March. At the conglomerate’s annual meeting this month, the billionaire said the recent market downturn was “really nothing,” pointing to times in Berkshire’s history when his company’s stock lost half of its value in short spans.

As we reported at the start of May, Buffett will step down as chairman at year-end. He built Berkshire into a business valued at more than $1.1 trillion, with individuals as well as professionals closely watching and sometimes imitating his investment moves.

Shares of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire have gained more than 11% so far this year. The S&P 500 Index has risen less than 1% during the same period.

A full breakdown of Berkshire's holdings is below.

Source: Edgar

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 20:05

 

Hey, just back after taking the redeye home from Futureproof Colorado, and getting my feet back under me. But I wanted to briefly discuss tomorrow’s release of the University of Michigan (UMich) long-term inflation expectations.

You probably know my thoughts on both Inflation Expectations and Sentiment Surveys.

ICYMI, Inflation Expectations are a backwards looking exercise in the Recency Effect. But even worse, they typically lag actual inflation by 6-12 months. As i explained in 2023:

“Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve spend a lot of time worrying about Inflation Expectations. They shouldn’t. Generally, Sentiment Surveys are useless — most of the time — the exception being on rare occasions at the extremes.

They aren’t merely lagging, backward-looking indicators, but instead, inform us as to what the public was experiencing about 3-6 months ago. Typically, it takes people a few weeks or months to subconsciously incorporate broad, subtle changes into their internal mental models, and longer to consciously recognize those nuanced shifts.”

The chart gives the entire story away:

Future inflation expectations were at their aboslute nadir just before the biggest inflation spike in decades occurred. And when future inflation expectations were at their highest levels? We were about to start a 12 month collapse in CPI/PCE inflation measures.

So, mostly useless — at least as a predictor of longer term inflation rates. But they are great at telling you what the inflation of the past 6 months was.

As to general sentiment surveys, well the chart at top showing political bias should make you realize how flimsy this is as a measure. Especially when consumers say one thing, but then do the exact opposite with their money.

The chart at top is from Bank of America; here is their take:

The UMich survey shows substantial divergence by political affiliation (Exhibit 1). Long-term inflation expectations have surged among Democrats and Independents, to 5.1% and 4.4%, respectively, in recent months. However, expectations have cratered to 1.5% among Republicans. This stark divergence has led some analysts to dismiss the UMich survey, arguing that the results are being driven by political preferences rather than an actual assessment of inflation dynamics.

All of the above is before we get to issues prevalent in both mainstream and algorthmic social media…

 

 

 

Previously:
What Else Might be Driving Sentiment? (October 19, 2023)

More Inflation Expectations Silliness (July 5, 2023)

Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment? (August 9, 2022)

More Sentiment Nonsense (July 28, 2023)

The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022)

Sentiment versus Spending (XXX)

Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment? (August 9, 2022)

The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022)

Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022)

Sentiment

The post The Trouble with Surveys appeared first on The Big Picture.

Lethal Lidar: Volvo SUV's Infrared Beam Fries Smartphone Camera

High-powered lidar systems—commonly used in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles—emit infrared laser beams to map their environments. While invisible to the human eye, these beams can damage smartphone camera sensors, as one Reddit user recently discovered the hard way. 

Reddit user Jeguetelli recently shared a video on the r/Volvo subreddit showing a smartphone camera's image sensor being fried after filming the front-mounted lidar sensor on the Volvo EX90—a fully electric, seven-seat luxury SUV that serves as Volvo's flagship entry into the electric vehicle market.

"Never film the new Ex90 because you will break your cell camera.Lidar lasers burn your camera," Jeguetelli wrote. 

Auto blog The Drive pointed out, "It should be said that the risk here is inherent to lidar technology, and has nothing to do with Volvo's specific implementation on the EX90. In fact, earlier this year, the automaker even issued a warning against directing external cameras at the vehicle's lidar pod for the very reasons discussed."

Filming this car's lidar system breaks the phone camerapic.twitter.com/99rfffYS1l

— Interesting things (@awkwardgoogle) May 14, 2025

Volvo's website states:

Lidar light waves can damage external cameras: Do not point a camera directly at the lidar. The lidar, being a laser based system, uses infrared light waves that may cause damage to certain camera devices. This can include smartphones or phones equipped with a camera.

"Would this damage your car's backup camera, if a LIDAR equipped car tailgates you?" one Redditor asked. 

Another person said, "Thank god for Apple Care." 

The ongoing debate in the tech world centers on LiDAR vs. cameras—a big divide in the race toward fully autonomous vehicles, especially when comparing Tesla's camera-only approach to rivals embracing LiDAR.

Elon Musk famously called LiDAR a "crutch," arguing that camera vision powered by advanced AI is sufficient for FSD.

"In my view, it's a crutch that will drive companies to a local maximum that they will find very hard to get out of." Musk said several years ago, adding, "Perhaps I am wrong, and I will look like a fool. But I am quite certain that I am not."

The Counterargument: Tesla's competitors argue that LiDAR provides critical redundancy and reliability, especially for safety-critical applications like robotaxis.

The proliferation of LiDAR sensors on vehicles should come with a public service warning: avoid pointing smartphone cameras at these devices emitting infrared laser beams—they can permanently damage image sensors.

Also, will LiDAR risk burning camera sensors on Tesla vehicles? 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 17:35

Dem Lawmaker Facing Calls For Expulsion And Arrest After Allegedly Assaulting ICE Agents Outside Detention Center In NJ

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Tuesday said the three Democrat lawmakers who scuffled with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in New Jersey last Friday committed felonies.

New Jersey Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman, Robert Menendez and LaMonica McIver were part of a mob that protested at the Delaney Hall detention center, a privately run facility under contract with ICE that houses non-citizens awaiting immigration proceedings or deportation.

The lefty protesters were demanding that the center be shut down, the New York Post reported.

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (D) was arrested Friday afternoon and charged with trespassing after entering the facility and refusing to leave.

An ugly scuffle ensued as the lawmakers surrounded Baraka in an apparent attempt to shield the mayor from the ICE agents making the arrest.

“Don’t touch us!” McIver (in red) screamed over and over as officers tried to break through their blockade.

An online video shows the hefty McIver (in red), a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, throwing punches and shoving law enforcement officers as they tried to regain control.

Watson Coleman said the group of lawmakers had already visited the facility and come out to talk to the mayor when they were the ones allegedly assaulted by ICE agents.

“Since DHS has been lying about this, allow me to correct the record. This scuffle, during which an ICE agent physically shoved me, occurred AFTER we had entered the Delaney Hall premises,” she posted on  X, Friday.

“We entered the facility, came BACK OUT to speak to the Mayor, and then ICE agents began shoving us. This is not how we entered the facility. We were escorted in by guards, because we have lawful oversight authority to be there,” she said.

”Tricia McLaughlin, the Department of Homeland Security’s assistant secretary for public affairs, said on CNN Friday that DHS has damning body-cam video of the scuffle that has not yet been released to the public.

“We actually have body camera footage of some of these members of Congress assaulting our ICE enforcement officers, including body slamming a female ICE officer,” McLaughlin said.

“These members of Congress, this mayor and these protesters are not above the law,” McLaughlin noted on “Fox & Friends,” Monday.

Noem hinted that more arrests are being considered during an appearance on Fox News, Tuesday night.

“This wasn’t oversight, this was committing felonies. This was going out and attacking people who stand up for the rule of law. And it was absolutely horrible,” Noem told the host Jesse Waters, noting that the acts of violence were committed in defense of violent criminals— rapists, murderers, and members of foreign terrorist organizations victimizing American communities.

“What are they trying to do? Get these people released back into the country so there can be more Laken Rileys?” she asked. “I just don’t understand what their point is. They’ve completely lost their minds.”

Noem said it was up to the Department of Justice to decide whether to press charges against the Democrat lawmakers.

Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) introduced a resolution Tuesday to strip the House members of all their committee assignments.

Rep. Marjory Taylor Greene went further Wednesday, saying McIver needs to be expelled.

Greene posted a photo on X showing McIver “couldn’t even look up as video played of her assaulting ICE officers” during a Homeland Security hearing Wednesday.

“She has zero respect for law enforcement or the rule of law, which is especially disgraceful as we honor law enforcement during Police Week,” the congresswoman added. “This isn’t just grounds for censure or removal from committees. LaMonica McIver should be EXPELLED from Congress.”

During the hearing Wednesday, Noem again argued that the Democrat lawmakers were not conducting oversight when they fought with ICE agents.

“What happened on May 9 at Delaney Hall was not oversight. It was a political stunt that put the safety of our law enforcement agents, our staff, and our detainees at risk,” she testified.  “This behavior was lawless, and it was beneath this body. Members of Congress are not above the law and cannot illegally break into detention facilities.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), meanwhile,  criticized the Trump administration over their handling of the incident, the Hill reported.

“If anyone’s breaking the law in this situation, it’s not members of Congress, it’s the Department of Homeland Security,” she said in an Instagram video posted Sunday.

“It’s people like Tom Homan and Secretary Kristi Noem,” she added.

“You lay a finger on someone, on Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman … or any of the representatives that were there, you lay a finger on them, we are going to have a problem,” Ocasio-Cortez added. “Because the people who are breaking the law are the people not abiding by it.”

Via Getty, the peaceful January 6 protester known as “the Lectern Guy,” shared his own thoughts on the fracas over the weekend.

“United States Representative LaMonica McIver has still not been arrested after assaulting multiple federal officers on video,” Getty posted on X Sunday. “Within 48 hours of smiling and waving in the Capitol on J6, I was in county jail isolation under 24-hour supervision, charged with 3 crimes, 2 were lies, the other debatable,” he continued.

“They put me in an ankle monitor and told me I was I was a danger to my community. Meanwhile, this animal is still collecting a paycheck from our tax dollars,” Getty added bitterly.

Fox News reported Wednesday that House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is opening an investigation into threats facing ICE facilities in the wake of the attack on Delaney Hall Detention Center.

Fox News Digital was told that Jordan is expected to schedule a hearing for next Tuesday, with former ICE and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials expected among the witness panel.

Republicans leaders, according to Fox, are still discussing what, if any, consequences could be in store for Reps. Watson Coleman, Menendez and  McIver.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 17:10

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 10 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 10 May. ...

4-10 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 64.6% (-2.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.57 (-0.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.08 (-3.0%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Putin Removes Commander Of Russia's Ground Forces In Another Defense Shake-Up

The longtime commander of Russia's ground forces, Army General Oleg Salyukov, has been relieved of his command by order of President Vladimir Putin on Thursday. 

Salyukov has led the Ground Forces as 'commander-in-chief' since 2014, making his removal a major decision amid what appears an ongoing shake-up of military leadership.

Chief of the Russian Land Forces Oleg Salyukov (far left) attends prior year's Victory Day, in Moscow, on May 9, 2024. Reuters

He just literally oversaw Moscow's Victory Day parade on May 9, and so his removal was likely a highly unexpected development.

As of yet, the Kremlin has offered no specific reason for the top commander's removal. Russia has continued making gains on the battlefield, particularly near Pokrovsk. But the advance has become a very slow grind.

Some the latest gains this week in Donetsk are as follows:

Russian forces captured the settlement of Kotlyarivka, southwest of the embattled area of Pokrovsk, on Monday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said.

The seizure brought Russian forces to within 3.7km (2.3 miles) of the regional border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk in Ukraine. Russian forces also forced their way into the village of Myrolyubivka, east of Pokrovsk, and claimed to have taken the entire settlement.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its forces took the community of Mykhailovka, also in Donetsk.

But it could be that Putin is growing impatient, and wants even greater breakthroughs at a moment peace negotiations mediated by the US are gaining steam. This huge figure points to this:

RUSSIA DEPLOYS 640,000 TROOPS IN WAR AGAINST UKRAINE: MILITARY

Meanwhile Salyukov's removal comes after a series of major defense ministry shake-ups which stretch well into 2023, which had also seen Sergei Shoigu removal as Defense Minister (and 'promoted' into a top security council role).

The commander of Russia's Ground Forces Army General Oleg Salyukov has left his post and has been appointed deputy secretary of the security council under former defense ministry Sergei Shoigu. Salyukov had been the commander of Russia's Ground Forces since 2014.… pic.twitter.com/KiE3CFtQEf

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 15, 2025

According to prior analysis:

Putin typically prioritizes loyalty over competence, which makes the command structure incapable of addressing sudden shifts in the combat environment. The recent profound shake-up of and purges in the Defense Ministry have resulted in a serious bureaucratic disorganization of this structure that is crucial for sustaining the war effort.

The lack of any changes in the General Staff weakens the ability to learn from experience and compromises the authority of the high command. Angst and anger among the fighting generals caused by the ineptness of the high command is a major source of political risk, which Putin can neither ignore nor properly address.

Indeed this analysis remains true, and it's hard to imagine someone with more experience than Salyukov - given that he has commanded the country's ground forces for a decade, including through well over three years of a complex Ukraine battlefield.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 16:45

VDH: The Real First 100 Days

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Pundits are confused about what to make of the first 100 days of the second Trump administration.

Supporters talk of “flooding the zone,” believing Trump is making so many changes so quickly that his opposition is reduced to deer-in-the-headlights infancy.

They must be right when the nation suffers daily Democratic pottymouth videos, vandalism of Teslas, infantile meltdowns at congressional witnesses, rioting against federal agents to protect illegal alien felons, protesting on behalf of women beaters, M-13 gangbangers, human traffickers, and assaulters, and visa-holding violent students praising Hamas terrorists.

In contrast, opponents either claim that Trump’s first three months are either directionless chaos or a Hitlerian nightmare or both.

But what is really happening?

One, Trump is finally addressing the problems that proverbially “cannot go on forever, and so they won’t go on.”

When, if ever, would the left have closed the southern border? After 10, 30, 50 million illegal aliens?

How many more criminal illegal entrants was the Biden administration willing to allow into American neighborhoods—500,000? 1 million? 3 million?

How long was the world simply going to ignore the human destruction on the doorstep of Europe?

Would Biden or Harris have sought a ceasefire? Or would it have taken another 1.5, 3, or even 5 million more dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainians and Russians?

Nor did past administrations ever seek a solution to the massive national debt, much less the uncontrollable budget and trade deficits.

All prior presidents passed the day of judgment on to some vague future presidency, assured that their money printing would at least not blow up on their watch.

All moaned that China was piling up huge trade surpluses while denying its own population the usual modern safety net. They knew Beijing’s aim was to use the trillions of dollars in trade surpluses to build a new massive military, a greater arsenal of nuclear bombs, and a new imperial Belt and Road overseas empire.

Yet no administration did anything but greenlight American outsourcing and offshoring while ignoring Chinese trade cheating and technology theft.

Indeed, prior presidencies appeased and enriched China on the foolish belief that such indulgence would lead to Chinese prosperity, and with such Western-style affluence, soon a globalized, democratic, and supposedly friendly China.

In sum, we just witnessed all at once a 100-day, 360-degree effort to address all the existential challenges that we knew were unsustainable but were either afraid or incompetent to address.

Second, the administration apparently wants to confront the source of these crises and believes it is the progressive project.

The left maintains real political power not by grass-roots popularity, but rather by unelected institutional clout. The party of democracy uses anti-democratic means to achieve its ends of perpetual control.

It wages lawfare through the weaponization of the state, local, and federal courts.

It exercises executive power through cherry-picked federal district and circuit judges and their state and local counterparts.

The permanent bureaucracies and huge federal workforce are mostly left-wing, unionized, and weaponized by a progressive apparat. Their supreme directive is to amalgamate legislative, judicial, and executive power into the hands of the unelected Anthony Faucis, Jim Comeys, and Lois Lerners of the world—and thus to override or ignore both popular plebiscites and the work of the elected Congress.

Over ninety percent of the media—legacy, network, social, and state—are left-wing. Their mission is not objectivity but, admittedly, indoctrination.

Academia is the font of the progressive project. Ninety percent of the professoriate are left-wing and activist—explaining why campuses believe they are above the rules and laws of the Constitution, the Supreme Court, and the U.S. Congress.

Add into the mix the blue-chip Accela corridor law firms and the globalized corporate and revolving-door political elite.

The net result is clear: almost everything the vast majority of Americans and their elected representatives did not want—far-left higher education, a Pravda media, biological men destroying women’s sports, an open border, 30 million illegal aliens, massive debt, a weaponized legal system, and a politicized Pentagon—became the new culture of America.

So, Trump is not just confronting unaddressed existential crises but also the root causes of why, when, and how they become inevitable and nearly unsolvable.

His answer is a messy, knock-down-drag-out counterrevolution to reboot the country back to the middle where it once was and where the Founders believed it should remain.

His right and left opponents call such pushback chaotic, disruptive, and out of control.

But the counterrevolution appears disorderly and upsetting, mostly to those who originally birthed the chaos; it certainly does not to the majority of Americans who finally wanted an end to the madness.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 16:20

Trump Touts 1.4 Trillion Investment In AI, Tech From UAE In Final Mideast Stop

After the several massive announcements and deals to come out of Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, developments during the last leg of the US President's Gulf tour in United Arab Emirates actually seem a bit humdrum by comparison. 

But the visuals and spare no expenses official welcome and ceremonial events have certainly been interesting...

⚡️Trump arrives in the UAE

(Don’t ask me what’s happening)pic.twitter.com/dtUsPwF25W

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 15, 2025

Among the more notable statements has been Trump's touting a 1.4 trillion... yes that's trillion... investment in AI and other tech sectors from the Emirates.

The White House had previewed this longtime in the works deal as related to artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, energy and manufacturing.

Further, Emirates Global Aluminum will "invest in the first new aluminium smelter in the United States in 35 years, which would nearly double US domestic aluminium production."

Getty Images

According to more developments out of the UAE:

• The White House said that Trump and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani signed agreements that would “generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion”.
• The agreements are said to include a $96bn deal with Qatar Airways to buy up to 210 Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777X aeroplanes, and a statement of intent for $38bn in investments at Qatar’s Al Udeid Airbase and other air defence capabilities.
• A meeting is scheduled for later today of US, Turkish and Syrian officials to discuss details of Trump’s announced dropping of sanctions against Syria.
• Trump’s three-country tour of the Gulf state region will conclude in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday.

Amid lots of awards ceremonies, accolades, and a state dinner...

The President of the United Arab Emirates just gave President Trump a special award.

The respect they have for him is unmatched. pic.twitter.com/7r9aKfcKKX

— George (@BehizyTweets) May 15, 2025

Trump has also been filling in more details of fresh arms deals inked with Qatar. "Yesterday we signed an agreement for Qatar to purchase $42bn-worth of the finest American military hardware including THAAD missile batteries," he said Thursday while speaking to US troops at Al Udeid airbase.

The commander-in-chief further detailed that the deal includes "Pegasus refueling aircraft, Desert Vipers, light armored vehicles, amphibious combat vehicles, the MQ-9B and the Sky Guardian drones."

A rare trip to the country's Grand Mosque...

By the way, this is the first time the UAE's Grand Mosque has been closed to the public. They did it to show respect for President Trump.pic.twitter.com/gdxNdMOU49

— George (@BehizyTweets) May 15, 2025

As for Qatar, the president says he's still ready to accept a donated jet from the tiny oil and gas rich country, a flying palace of a future Air Force One, which Dems have been warning would be a violation of the US Constitution's prohibition on foreign gifts. Certainly he'll come back to Washington awaiting immense controversy and backlash from the corporate media and his political enemies.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 15:05

Ukraine Will Never Recognize Occupied Territories As Russia, Zelensky Says From Turkey

Update(1105ET): "We don’t yet know the official level of Russians, but from what we see, it looks phony," Zelensky told reporters in Ankara. So despite the Ukrainian leader earlier declaring "I am here" upon landing in Turkey, he is not in fact at the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul.

This 'I am here' yet not actually 'there' charade generated some contradictory headlines earlier on Thursday. Zelensky continues his performative gestures aimed at impressing one man: Trump. He even explained that he is sending Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to head the Ukrainian delegation for the Istanbul meeting, now likely underway, out of respect for Trump and the peace process he initiated. 

The Kremlin side meanwhile says it's ready to make compromises:

The head of the Russian delegation in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, told Russian state media RIA that Moscow was “ready for discussions.”

“We are ready for discussions, for resuming the Istanbul negotiations; we are prepared for possible compromises and their discussion,” Medinsky said, referring to the last known direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place in Istanbul in the spring of 2022.

But apparently not on the table is the only thing which could actually end this tragic war - territorial concessions: 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv will never recognize parts of Ukraine that are currently occupied as parts of Russia, as he confirmed peace talks are set to go ahead.

“In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land,” Zelensky told journalists.

Still, the fact the two sides are even at the same table in Istanbul is a huge development and start.

⚡️ Russia delegation has been empowered to negotiate with Ukrainian side — Vladimir Medinsky reacts to the lull in Istanbul talks

'We view these talks as a continuation of negotiations BROKEN by Ukraine 3 years ago pic.twitter.com/Kacw5hhDRM

— RT (@RT_com) May 15, 2025

And again, everything Zelensky is doing appears designed to signal Trump - in order to keep America as Kiev's top weapons backer. "Despite the relatively low level of the Russian delegation, out of respect for President Trump, out of respect for the high level of the Turkish delegation and for President Erdogan, we still want to try to take at least the first steps towards a ceasefire, so I have decided to send our delegation to Istanbul now," Zelensky said further.

Zelensky says he is sending defense minister Umerov for direct talks with the Russians in Istanbul, so that nobody (he means Trump) could accuse Ukraine of not trying to reach peace.

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 15, 2025

* * *

Russian President Vladimir Putin's investment envoy and close aide, Kirill Dmitriev, has praised US President Donald Trump for putting together Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, the first such direct dialogue between the warring countries since early 2022.

Trump and his team have "made the impossible possible" by bringing Moscow and Kiev to the table. Dmitriev further wrote on X that the Istanbul meeting is happening "against all odds/fierce resistance" and that if "not derailed last-minute, this could be a historic step to peace."

Dmitriev also specifically named Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio - the latter two who are present in Istanbul - as major contributors to the mediation effort. The Kremlin had spent the opening years of the conflict blasting the Biden administration for constantly stoking the war and thwarting dialogue, taking Washington-Moscow relations to new historic lows.

Via Anadolu Agency

As we noted earlier, Ukraine's President Zelensky is actually in Turkey, where he's set to meet with President Erdogan - but separately in the capital of Ankara, and has boasted that "I am here" and that Putin is not. Zelensky has even called the Russian delegation, largely composed of junior officials, "phony". 

President Trump meanwhile, while attending meetings in Qatar, was asked by a reporter why the American leader is not himself present in Turkey for the talks:

"Why would he go if I’m not going?"

"I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t."

"But we have people there. Marco's doing a fantastic job, Marco's there..."

It remains that Putin has little reason or incentive to go, with war analysts widely recognizing that he remains in the driver's seat militarily, and with Ukrainian forces against the ropes.

‘Why would he go if I’m not going?’: Trump reacts to Putin sitting out Istanbul talks

“I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t.” pic.twitter.com/4YvqvO8gWh

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) May 15, 2025

Zelensky has until now offered no major concessions, and issues like permanent control over Crimea and the four eastern territories remain sticking points for Moscow. Thus there are unlikely to be any major breakthroughs in Istanbul, but the fact that the two sides are even at the table is a big accomplishment.

Below is an important rundown of what's expected in Istanbul and what's at stake for both sides, excerpted from fresh Responsible Statecraft analysis, Istanbul 2.0: know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em:

* * *

What has changed since then?

Ukraine will enter the Istanbul talks in a weaker position that it held in 2022.

Western support for Ukraine financially and economically is not as sound as it was then. No big ticket economic aid and assistance has been made available since the G7 agreement of a $50 billion package of loans, in June 2024. While European states scratched together new economic aid to Ukraine in April, this cannot make up for the reduction in US support.

In territorial terms, Russia withdrew from Kyiv as a concession to the first Istanbul talks and lost ground in Kharkiv and in Kherson in late 2022. However, Russia has gone on steadily to gain further territory in the Donbas since the end of 2023. So while both sides have scores on the board, Russia now maintains the military upper hand on the battlefield and that seems unlikely to change. These two factors in particular were behind President Trump’s February assertion that Ukraine has no cards to play.

What has stayed the same?

NATO membership is still off the table

The verified documents shared by the New York Times last June confirmed that Ukraine’s neutrality and non-membership of NATO was the central issue agreed upon in 2022. Ukraine was ready to become a “permanently neutral state” that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil.

There seems no route for Ukraine to resile from that given its currently weakened negotiating position and President Trump’s stated view that NATO membership for Ukraine is not practical. Although Germany’s new foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul recently repeated the line that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible, most have agreed, privately and publicly, that Ukraine’s path to NATO is a fraught if not impossible one.

Right now, just having the talks is a huge breakthrough

The Istanbul talks would not be happening had the Trump administration not pushed for it so hard. We don’t need to rehash the “did they or didn’t they” debate around why Ukraine abandoned the Istanbul agreement in April 2022. What is clear, is that Ukraine became entrenched, not only in not negotiating with Russia, but in excluding Russia from all discussions on peace in Ukraine from then onward.

Having agreed in principle for Ukraine to accept neutral status Zelensky was pushing his own ten point peace plan. This included, among other things, Russia withdrawing its troops to the pre-2014 border, i.e. giving up Crimea and the Donbass and creating a Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture, by which he meant Ukraine joining NATO. Peace summits were organized in various countries that explicitly excluded Russia, culminating in the Switzerland event on June 15, 2024.

At this event, President Zelensky was dug in deeper on resisting any engagement with Russia until a full withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine, which was a completely unrealistic proposal. “Russia can start negotiations with us even tomorrow without waiting for anything – if they leave our legal territories,” he said.

Even after President Trump was elected, European leaders clung to the line that “only Ukraine can decide what peace means.”’ I see no circumstances in which a Kamala Harris presidency would have cajoled President Zelensky to enter into negotiations. Tomorrow’s talks wouldn’t be happening unless the Trump administration broke a whole load of Ukrainian and European eggshells to get to this point.

Source: Anadolu Agency 

And Responsible Statecraft continues:

The biggest issue now is territory

Even though he was wrongly derided at the time by mainstream media, Steve Witkoff correctly pointed out in his March interview with Tucker Carlson that the territorial issues in Ukraine will be most intractable. Russia’s decision in October 2022 to formally annex the four oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk changed the calculus. However, Russia does not have full territorial control of any of those oblasts, which are cut through the middle by a hotly contested front line.

Resolving the line of control when the war ends is, by some margin, the most problematic challenge. This will be a hugely sensitive topic, and European allies will shoot down any major concessions to Russia, as they did when the idea surfaced that the U.S.might de jure recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea.

The most obvious settlement is a de facto recognition of occupation, a Cyprus-style scenario, that does not stand in the way of Ukraine’s future membership of the European Union. Even that will require detailed agreement on issues around demilitarization of the line of control and enforcing any ceasefire.

Sanctions are probably tricky, but also tractable

As I have said before, there is enormous scope to a plan that allows for the immediate lifting of the bulk of zero-impact measures, phasing out the remainder at points agreed to by both sides. The toughest issue remains the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Belgium. Russia has shown a willingness to concede this funding to support reconstruction in Ukraine, including those parts that Russia occupies.

But there is texture here. Freeing up those funds for reconstruction would immediately remove the source of interest payments that are meeting Ukraine’s obligations on its $50 billion in debt to the G7, agreed to in June 2024. But the more general policy question arises, how much of the freed up funding would be spent in Ukraine itself and how much in Russian-occupied Ukraine, where most of the war damage has occurred? The U.S. must keep the pressure on to ensure the talks stay on track.

A U.S. presence in Istanbul will be vital, to prevent, in particular, Ukraine from bailing on the talks. That’s why sending Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg makes sense. The former is trusted by the Russian side while the latter has built relationships in Ukraine. Their presence serves to keep the process moving forward until a deal can be pushed over the line and the fighting can stop.

Bear in mind that the 2022 talks ran for a month and a half and the circumstances have materially changed as I have indicated above. While there has been speculation that President Trump might drop into Istanbul, I am not sure that this is necessary if President Putin doesn’t himself attend. Knowing the Russians, I assess that Putin will want his own “‘meeting moment” with the U.S. President on terms that the Russian side can better choreograph. Indeed, that may be a prize for Russia’s engagement in the process, given its desire for a more comprehensive reset of relations with the U.S.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 14:20

Trump Admin Urges Supreme Court To Permit DOGE Access To Social Security Records

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Justice urged the Supreme Court on May 13 to let the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have access to Social Security data after lower courts blocked that access.

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on April 3, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump issued Executive Order 14158 on Jan. 20, implementing DOGE, an advisory body that recommends cost-cutting measures. The order directed the entity to “implement the President’s DOGE Agenda, by modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.”

Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued in the new filing that the lower courts have overreached and are attempting to turn themselves into “the human resources department for the Executive Branch.”

The filing came after Ellen Lipton Hollander, a Maryland-based federal district court judge, issued an order on March 20 preventing DOGE from viewing Social Security Administration (SSA) records because such access “violates” the federal Privacy Act.

The lawsuit was brought in February by labor unions and retirees represented by the Democracy Forward Foundation.

“The DOGE Team is essentially engaged in a fishing expedition at SSA, in search of a fraud epidemic, based on little more than suspicion. It has launched a search for the proverbial needle in the haystack, without any concrete knowledge that the needle is actually in the haystack,” the judge wrote in granting a temporary restraining order against the federal government.

DOGE’s team at the Social Security Administration has had “unbridled access to the personal and private data of millions of Americans, including but not limited to Social Security numbers, medical records, mental health records, hospitalization records, drivers’ license numbers, bank and credit card information, tax information, income history, work history, birth and marriage certificates, and home and work addresses,” Hollander wrote.

Hollander directed DOGE to delete any personally identifiable data in its possession. On April 17, Hollander upgraded the temporary restraining order to a preliminary injunction.

On April 30, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit voted 9–6 to maintain Hollander’s order while the appeal process continues.

On May 2, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court, asking the justices to pause the preliminary injunction.

In the May 13 filing, Sauer argued that the district court erred in preventing “the 11 members of the Social Security Administration (SSA) DOGE team—from accessing data ... for purposes that are unquestionably lawful.”

The district court “dictated to the Executive Branch which government employees can access which data and even prescribed necessary training, background checks, and paperwork for data access,” Sauer wrote.

“When district courts attempt to transform themselves into the human resources department for the Executive Branch, the irreparable harm to the government is clear,” he wrote.

When the courts “stymie the government’s initiatives to modernize badly outdated systems and combat rampant fraud—leaving those initiatives on a litigation track that may halt them for months or years—the irreparable harm is even clearer.”

Reviewing Social Security Administration data is important because the agency has “one of the largest documented histories of improper payments,” Sauer stated.

In a brief in opposition filed on May 12, the lead respondent, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, said that after years of honoring “its data security obligations,” the Social Security Administration “now seeks to throw open its data systems to unauthorized (and often unvetted) personnel who have no demonstrated need for the personally identifiable information ... they seek.”

The April 17 preliminary injunction should be left in place because it is “narrow and, contrary to the government’s assertions, permits SSA to disclose both anonymized and non-anonymized data to DOGE Team members,” the brief said.

The Supreme Court could rule on the government’s emergency application at any time.

Jack Phillips contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/15/2025 - 14:05