Individual Economists

"You're Deifying Scientists": Climate-Change Debate 'Heats Up' With Collum, Keen, Fleckenstein

Zero Hedge -

"You're Deifying Scientists": Climate-Change Debate 'Heats Up' With Collum, Keen, Fleckenstein

While most climate scientists like Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M think debate is a bad idea…

We disagree. And thankfully so do our guests.

Steve Keen, while primarily an economist, is well-versed in the research and a firm believer in the danger climate change poses. Dave Collum, chemistry professor at Cornell, believes much of the science to be bogus. Legendary short-seller Bill Fleckenstein was kind enough to shepard them along.

We hope you enjoy and that you give both Keen and Collum a fair shake:

For those short on time, here were the highlights:

Poking holes in the ‘narrative’

Things heated up when Collum unleashed a flurry of charts documenting trends that run counter to what we hear from most climate alarmists: Today, we actually see fewer hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, and forest fires than decades past.

Collum: “There's no obvious change in the frequency of global hurricanes back to 1980… Back to 1990, it actually has a distinct downward trend… Here's one that goes back to 1960. These are violent tornadoes. Again, downward trend.”

“Climate change could be roaring but the naked eye can't see it.”

“Potentially Suicidal”

Natural disasters aside, Keen brought his own charts showing the recent and rapid ascent of global temperature. If accurate, the rise in temperature in the last 150 years when viewed on an axis of millions of years is staggering.

Keen: “That's the real danger of climate change. We've built [civilization] in a stable period of the climate. We're destroying that stability and thinking we can still have the social system we've designed… I just don't think that's true.”

Keen's sources provided below:

Judd, E. J., J. E. Tierney, D. J. Lunt, I. P. Montañez, B. T. Huber, S. L. Wing and P. J. Valdes (2024). "A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature." Science 385(6715): eadk3705. https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adk3705

Scotese, C. R., H. Song, B. J. W. Mills and D. G. Van Der Meer (2021). "Phanerozoic paleotemperatures: The earth’s changing climate during the last 540 million years." Earth-Science Reviews 215: 103503. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103503

Green New Deal?

Assuming humanity put all its resources and minds together to avert the Earth’s heating… can it be done? Fleckenstein asked our distinguished guests whether they would support a “Green New Deal” (massive public spending effort to combat climate change): 

Collum: “My dad taught me this: Never ask the government to spend your money. They'll do a terrible job.”

“If we were serious about climate change…  They should never put guys like John Kerry in charge as Climate Czar.”

“Steve's enthusiastic about intervening as scientists. But here's the question I have is who is going to make these tough calls? Who has the right to sign off the informed consent to say we are going to cover the world with a blanket of particles to block the sun?”

Keen argued that — while governments are inefficient — we do not have a choice.

Keen: “I'll go on record on saying that if we continue down the trends we're doing right now… we're going to destroy civilization before 2050.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/16/2024 - 08:45

Schedule for Week of November 17, 2024

Calculated Risk -

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, the November Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.

----- Monday, November 18th -----
10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 42, down from 44. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, November 19th -----
Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.338 million SAAR, down from 1.354 million SAAR.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2024

----- Wednesday, November 20th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, November 21st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 222 thousand initial claims, up from 217 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0, down from 10.3.

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.88 million SAAR, up from 3.84 million in September.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

----- Friday, November 22nd -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for November).

French Court Orders Release Of Lebanese Man Convicted Of Killing US & Israeli Diplomats In 1980s

Zero Hedge -

French Court Orders Release Of Lebanese Man Convicted Of Killing US & Israeli Diplomats In 1980s

Via Middle East Eye

A French court on Friday ordered the release of Lebanese pro-Palestine activist Georges Ibrahim Abdallah, Europe's longest-held political prisoner, after 40 years in prison.

Abdallah, a former guerrilla with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), was sentenced to life in prison in 1987 for his alleged involvement in the 1982 murders of US military attache Charles Robert Ray and Israeli diplomat Yacov Barsimantov.

Lebanese political prisoner Georges Ibrahim Abdallah sits in court during his trial in Lyon, France, in July 1986, via AFP

The 73-year-old has appealed his conviction 11 times since becoming eligible for release in 1999. The court said the communist activist would be released on December 6 on the condition that he leaves France and does not return, French anti-terror prosecutors said in a statement to AFP.

The prosecutors said they would appeal the court's decision, leaving the timing of Abdallah’s release uncertain.

The Lebanese activist, born to a Christian family in the northern village of Koubayat, has long maintained that he was not a "criminal" but "a fighter" who battled for the rights of Palestinians. 

"The path I followed was dictated by the human rights violations perpetrated against Palestine," he told the judges during his latest appeal for release.

Wounded in 1978 during Israel's invasion of Lebanon, Abdallah, a secondary school teacher, joined the Marxist-Leninist PFLP, which carried out a series of plane hijackings during the 1960s and 1970s.

A year later, Abdallah, along with his brothers and cousins, founded his own pro-Palestine armed group, the Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Factions (LARF). The group had contact with other far-left armed outfits, including France's Action Directe, Italy's Red Brigades and the German Red Army Faction (RAF).

The Lebanese anti-Israeli Marxist group claimed responsibility for five attacks, including four in France in 1981 and 1982.

'Honor of being accused'

In 1986, Abdallah was sentenced in Lyon to four years in prison for criminal association and possession of weapons and explosives. He was tried the following year for complicity in the assassination of Ray and Barsimantov, as well as for the attempted assassination of a third American diplomat in 1984.

In the murder trial, one of the French secret services' sources was Abdallah's lawyer, Jean-Paul Mazurier, who later revealed that he was an intelligence agent.

In court, Abdallah denied the accusation but declared: "If the people did not entrust me with the honor of participating in these anti-imperialist actions that you attribute to me, at least I have the honor of being accused of them."

Abdallah was then sentenced to life in prison, a far more severe punishment than the 10-year sentence sought by the attorney general. His lawyer, Jacques Verges, who previously defended clients such as Venezuelan militant Carlos the Jackal, saw the verdict as "a declaration of war".

A support committee was immediately formed, demanding Abdallah's "immediate release". The longest-serving prisoner in France has never expressed regret for his actions.

"He is doing well intellectually. He is an activist. He sticks to his guns, reads a lot and keeps himself very informed about what is happening in the Middle East. People write to him from all over the world," his lawyer, Jean-Louis Chalanset, told AFP in 2022.

'A political victory'

"I am the victim of a political decision," Abdallah said shortly before the verdict on Friday.

Washington has consistently opposed Abdallah's release, while Lebanese authorities have repeatedly called for his freedom.

A more recent photo of Georges Ibrahim Abdallah

Since 1999, the year he became eligible for release, all his parole requests have been rejected except one in 2013, when he was granted release on the condition that he be expelled from France.

When his request was granted that year, then-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton contacted French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, saying in diplomatic cables revealed by WikiLeaks: "Although the French government has no legal authority to overturn the Court of Appeal's decision, we hope French officials might find another basis to challenge the decision's legality."

French Interior Minister Manuel Valls then refused to proceed with the order and Abdallah remained in jail. 

Chalanset told AFP that the court's decision on Friday is not contingent on the government issuing such an order, calling it "a legal and a political victory". However, under French law, an appeal can suspend the court's decision, effectively deferring its execution.

Over the years, Abdallah's fate has mobilized activists close to the French Communist Party and the far left, who have accused successive governments of employing relentless tactics regarding the political prisoner's release.

Several communist municipalities have even made him an honorary citizen, and protests have frequently been held outside his prison in Lannemezan, in southwestern France. "Georges Ibrahim Abdallah is the victim of a state justice that shames France," Nobel Prize-winning author Annie Ernaux said in a piece in the communist daily L'Humanite last month.

The Human Rights League, a leading French human rights NGO, has long maintained that Abdallah’s continued imprisonment violates human rights.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/16/2024 - 07:35

Germany: Police Raid Pensioner's House, Drag Him To Court After He Retweets Meme Calling Green Minister "Idiot"

Zero Hedge -

Germany: Police Raid Pensioner's House, Drag Him To Court After He Retweets Meme Calling Green Minister "Idiot"

By Remix News

After a 64-year-old pensioner retweeted a meme of Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck, in which Habeck was described as an “idiot,” Bavarian police raided the man’s house and arrested him. The crime has even been recorded as a “politically motivated right-wing crime.”

The man is accused of distributing a photo of Habeck via retweet, where Habeck is described as an “idiot.” The Bamberg prosecutor’s office indicates that this constitutes a federal criminal offense of “hatred.”

“At a time that cannot currently be specified in more detail in the days or weeks before June 20, 2024, the accused published an image file using the account that shows a portrait of Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck with the title ‘Schwachkopf PROFESSIONAL’, based on the advertising campaign of the Schwarzkopf company, in order to generally defame Robert Habeck and to make it more difficult for him to work as a member of the federal government,” read the prosecutor’s statement.

Schwachkopf generally means “idiot,” in German.

The rival Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has reposted the meme on X, writing in a statement:

“While Habeck presents himself as a ‘people-friendly’ candidate for chancellor, his critics are being relentlessly pursued. They do not shy away from conducting house searches on sleeping families just because the father of the family shared this Schwachkopf graphic. This is what would happen to Germany under a Chancellor Habeck: the complete restriction of freedom of expression by a children’s book author who displayed maximum incompetence for three and a half years, but still feels called to greater things,” wrote the AfD.

The person who was arrested told the NIUS news outlet that he could never have imagined “that it would come to this.” This has “definitely GDR flavor,” he said, referring to communist East Germany and its Stasi police force.

Nius also reports that “criminal police officers were deployed across Germany on Tuesday for the day of action against hate postings, warning social media users their homes would be searched and electronic devices confiscated. In over 90 investigations, more than 50 homes were searched, and there were 127 police actions in total.”

“When the police are at the door, every perpetrator realizes that hate crimes have consequences,” Interior Minister Faeser wrote on X.

Those who criticize the Green party in Bavaria have faced prosecution before. A businessman, Michael Much, put up posters mocking members of the federal government, including Habeck and then Green party leader Ricarda Lang. He also had his house searched and the posters confiscated. The prosecutor was defeated in court, which determined the posters were a legitimate form of freedom of expression.

Notably, last week, X owner Elon Musk called German Chancellor Olaf Scholz a “fool,” on his platform. In response, the federal government reacted that “on X, you have Narrenfreiheit.” The term refers to freedom to mock the king, typically reserved for a jester.

Scholz himself responded that it was “not very friendly,” saying that web companies are “not organs of state, so I did not even pay it any attention.”

Apparently, for those lower on the food chain, such insults result in a massive police raid. The man’s phones were seized and all his rooms were searched.

Users have been acting with incredulity on social media, with one writing: “First election campaign posters leaked,” which showed police breaking down a door.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/16/2024 - 07:00

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