The Middle Corridor Emerges As A Strategic Lifeline For Global Trade

Via RFE/RL,

• Global trade is shifting away from vulnerable maritime chokepoints toward overland routes like the Middle Corridor amid rising geopolitical instability

• A $3.3 billion World Bank-backed investment push aims to address infrastructure gaps and unlock the corridor’s long-term potential

• While promising, the route still faces major capacity and coordination constraints before it can rival established northern trade flows

While diplomatic efforts struggle to stabilize access to the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions between the United States and Iran, Eurasian trade is increasingly being redirected toward overland alternatives, with the Trans-Caspian Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, emerging as a key diversification route in Eurasian logistics.

The World Bank described the Middle Corridor back in 2023 as a strategically important but structurally constrained route. While geopolitical fragmentation, driven in part by Russia's war in Ukraine, has increased the demand for alternative corridors, the World Bank emphasized that the corridor's long-term viability requires coordinated investment, the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks, and improved cross-border customs and transport procedures.

To address these roadblocks, the World Bank and its partners on April 14–15 committed $3.3 billion to strengthening key missing links along the corridor, including $1.9 billion for Turkey's Istanbul North Rail Crossing and a $1.4 billion investment in the reconstruction of Kazakhstan's Karagandy–Zhezkazgan highway.

On the same day that this was announced, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Y?lmaz underscored the importance of such investment at a meeting in Astana.

"The Northern Corridor [through Russia] has become unpredictable due to geopolitical tensions. The southern route is pushing the limits of its capacity," he said.

"This situation has made the Middle Corridor not an alternative but a mandatory choice."

Dosym Satpayev, director of the Risk Assessment Group in Almaty -- an independent think tank analyzing political risks, corruption, and foreign policy processes in the region -- says that Russia's war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions deepened global dependence on maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. but the current crisis has potentially long-term consequences for global trade.

"Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, I believe that the image of it as a stable transport and logistics route has been damaged for many years, if not permanently," Satpayev said.

"The same applies to the stereotype that the Persian Gulf and Middle Eastern countries can guarantee stable supplies of energy resources and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz."

Uncertainty is already reshaping global pricing and trade behavior, he added, saying that a "risk premium" will most likely be embedded in prices of oil and nitrogen fertilizers.

"About 25–35 percent of global fertilizer supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and this will inevitably be reflected in final prices. Therefore, many countries will seek to diversify routes regardless of how the situation develops. Most likely, instability will persist for a long time, which means risks will remain high. And this is bad for business, because business needs predictability."

A Region Surrounded By Geopolitical Chaos

A key factor behind the growing appeal of the Middle Corridor, Satpayev says, is the relative stability of the regions it passes through. Despite the conflicts raging nearby, Central Asia and the Caucasus have "demonstrated stability in the conditions of geopolitical chaos."

"This has increased interest in it as a platform for transport and logistics projects," he said. "As a result, the region's status at the global level has risen."

The Middle Corridor suits everyone, he added, except Russia.

"We see that major geopolitical players are seeking to strengthen their positions in the region, primarily in the economic and transport-logistics spheres. China and the European Union are particularly active," Satpayev said.

"The Samarkand summit last year demonstrated the EU's interest in developing the Middle Corridor, including investments in hubs around the Caspian Sea. The United States is also showing interest in the Middle Corridor, as it seeks access to critical materials and rare earth metals in Central Asia.”

However, some analysts caution that the Middle Corridor is not yet capable of fully replacing existing trade routes, especially the northern land route via Russia.

Central Asia analyst Temur Umarov of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that while geopolitical narratives increasingly favor diversification, the physical and logistical realities of trade still impose clear constraints.

"The Middle Corridor, however interesting and potentially ambitious it may appear, is not yet developed to a level where it can replace the northern flows through Russia," Umarov said. "The issue is not a lack of interest in the Middle Corridor, but the simple fact that it is technically impossible, for now, to reroute the entire flow of goods and energy resources through it instead of the existing northern routes."

He adds that this structural limitation is not only about infrastructure gaps, but about time and scale.

"From a practical perspective, it is still too early to expect the Middle Corridor to absorb full trade volumes. It will require sustained investment, coordination between multiple countries, and years of development before it can operate at the scale of established northern routes."

What Does The Middle Corridor Mean For Kazakhstan?

For Kazakhstan, the significance of the World Bank-backed highway project extends beyond infrastructure financing. It signals the country's growing role as a central transit hub in a rapidly evolving Eurasian logistics landscape, one increasingly defined not only by geography but by geopolitics, risk diversification, and the search for resilient trade routes.

If Central Asian governments manage the process effectively, investments in the Middle Corridor could also translate into tangible benefits for ordinary people in the region, Satpayev maintains.

"Infrastructure such as railways and roads, especially given the size of Kazakhstan, can revive certain regions that are economically depressed," he said. "From the perspective of building hotels, gas stations, services, and maintenance infrastructure, this can create a multiplier effect that gives such regions a second life."

He added that this potential is not automatic but depends on governance and implementation quality.

"There's hope that if this is implemented under the supervision of investors and international organizations financing these projects, it will also to some extent improve the well-being of citizens in our countries."

The Middle Corridor, formally the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, was established in 2014 by Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to connect China and Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus, with onward links through Turkey. For years, it remained secondary to the Russian-led northern route.

The corridor is supported by a mix of multilateral lenders such as the World Bank, EBRD, and ADB, alongside EU funding initiatives and major state-led investments from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, with China acting as a key trade driver through its Belt and Road connectivity.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 07:20

China "Aggressively" Selling Oil In Recent Weeks

We knew there was a reason why China had accumulated a cool 1.5 billion barrels in its strategic petroleum reserve: the reason, to become the world's strategist petroleum reserve when the time arises... for a price of course.

According to the chief executive officer of commodity trader Mercuria, Chinese oil companies have been aggressive sellers in recent weeks, selling barrels to several nations in tenders.

“What has been happening in the last two or three weeks is actually they have been aggressively selling crude oil,” Mercuria CEO Marco Dunand said at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne on Tuesday. “They’ve taken out a lot of demand from various countries and offered aggressively in tenders."

Dunand said there are a variety of possible explanations for the selling. They include the release of oil inventories within China, continued sales of Iranian oil in the weeks after the war started, and possible optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen quicker than it has so far. 

He also said that Mercuria sees Chinese gasoline demand falling by 1 million barrels a day this year as a result of electric-vehicle adoption, which also could have played a factor in the sales.

But the most important thing Dunand said, was his response to question how long this last: “How long can they do this for? I think the guess would be probably for about another three weeks and then I think at that point they would have to revise their position."

Well, three weeks is also how long Iran has before its oil sector is permanently shut in. The good news: the end of the Iran war is - one way or another - now in sight. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 06:55

What Does This Guy Have To Do To Get Deported?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Britain’s immigration system has hit a new low. A convicted Islamist terrorist who helped plot a bombing at the London Stock Exchange remains free to live in the UK, protected by human rights laws despite his asylum application being thrown out years ago.

The case of Shah Rahman exposes exactly how foreign terror offenders exploit loopholes that put British citizens at risk while officials tie themselves in knots over “rights.” As the migrant crisis spirals and taxpayers foot the bill for endless monitoring, this is not justice – it’s institutional surrender.

Rahman was jailed in 2012 alongside three other extremists inspired by Al-Qaeda over the plot to plant an improvised explosive device. He was released onto Britain’s streets just five years later in 2017, only to be recalled to prison in 2022 for breaches of his licence conditions.

This guy plotted to blow up the London Stock Exchange, went to prison twice and married a woman who was banned from Britain for life for having ISIS material, yet he gets to stay in the country because it would 'violate his rights' to deport him. https://t.co/MlKnUBupjs

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) April 21, 2026

After his initial release he lodged an asylum claim. It was rejected under Article 51 of the Refugee Convention, which bars refugee status for those convicted of “war crimes, crimes against humanity, terrorist acts or other serious criminal offences.”

Yet despite that rejection, an immigration judge ruled he could not be deported to Bangladesh. The judgement stated: “He was granted restricted leave to remain in the United Kingdom on the basis that he could not be removed to Bangladesh without breach of his rights under Article 3 of the Human Rights Convention.”

Article 3 guarantees the absolute right to be free from torture, inhuman or degrading treatment. In practice, it has become a get-out-of-deportation-free card for some of the most dangerous individuals on British soil.

Details of Rahman’s continued presence emerged during a separate legal battle involving his wife, Mauritian national Parveen Purbhoo. The pair married in an Islamic ceremony at East London Mosque in 2019 while he was on licence. Purbhoo was later barred from Britain for life by then-Home Secretary Suella Braverman after officers at Heathrow discovered Isis-related material on her phone.

A recent judgement in her case confirmed Rahman’s situation and delivered a damning assessment of her own conduct: “The applicant was complicit in Mr Rahman’s unlawful breach of notification requirements; and she has not provided either the police or SIAC with an explanation of how Islamist material came to be on her phone. Her willingness to place her own interests over and above legal or administrative processes is troubling and risky.” The court found she had been “reasonably assessed as a national security risk” and upheld the ban.

This is the same pattern of weakness we have highlighted before. In February we reported how the UK released another dangerous bomb-plot terrorist from prison early.

And back in January we covered the case of a convicted terrorist who plotted to bomb the British consulate now standing for election in the UK. Time after time, the system chooses leniency over public safety.

While ordinary Brits face rising costs, crime and the constant threat of terror, the state bends over backwards to accommodate those who plotted mass murder on our streets. Rahman’s case is not an outlier – it is the direct result of open-borders policies, ECHR activism and a political class more worried about international lawyers than British security.

Successive governments have talked tough on migration. Yet here we are in 2026 with an Islamist terrorist who targeted the London Stock Exchange still here, his wife’s Isis links exposed, and human rights lawyers still calling the shots. The Home Office insists it takes national security seriously. The evidence suggests otherwise.

Britain does not owe protected status to those who plotted to kill its citizens. Deportation should not be optional when the threat is this clear.

File this latest farce alongside a growing litany of ridiculous reasons sex criminals and other offenders have dodged deportation under the same broken system.

Albanian migrant Klevis Disha, who entered the UK illegally in 2001 under a false name and was later convicted for possessing £250,000 in dirty money, successfully fought deportation by claiming it would be unduly harsh on his 11-year-old British son – who apparently dislikes “foreign” chicken nuggets because of texture issues. 

First-tier Tribunal Judge Linda Veloso accepted the Article 8 family-life argument. Reform UK’s Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf said: “A criminal migrant who entered Britain illegally under a false name and lied in a failed asylum claim has successfully fought his deportation by arguing his son disliked foreign chicken nuggets. This is the country the Tories and Labour have created.”

A Somali criminal, schizophrenic and alcohol-dependent for nearly 20 years, was allowed to stay because deportation would cause him excessive “stress” and breach Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights by worsening his mental health. Deputy Upper Tribunal Judge Ian Jarvis ruled: “I conclude that the weight of the evidence before the Tribunal indicates that the [man] will very quickly become noncompliant with his medication… without the 24/7 support and monitoring which he currently receives in the United Kingdom.”

An insane Pakistani paedophile who reoffended by assaulting a teenage girl after release from prison for sex offences escaped deportation because his “uncontrollable” alcoholism would allegedly lead to “inhuman or degrading treatment” in Pakistan without proper treatment. He remains in Britain.

A separate Pakistani migrant arrived on a spousal visa and was convicted of attempting to cause children under 16 to engage in sexual acts after grooming decoy “barely pubescent girls” online while his wife was hospitalised with Covid. He won his appeal because deportation would be “unduly harsh” on his British children and family life.

Migrant shambles as unnamed judge lets paedophile we cannot name (to protect HIS privacy) stay in UK because pervert's Pakistani family might disapprove of him lusting after 'barely pubescent girls' https://t.co/4by6HxEcZ6

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) February 7, 2025

The judge even factored in the wife’s lack of intimate relations during her illness. Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick called the case “disgraceful,” adding: “The public are right to think that our immigration system is rigged in the interests of people who mean us harm, illegal migrants, against the interests of the British public.”

And as the Daily Mail also revealed, another migrant won asylum by claiming he was gay and fleeing persecution – only to be exposed with a secret wife and child back in Cameroon. 

Revealed: Migrant granted asylum in Britain after claiming he was gay has a secret wife and child in Cameroon https://t.co/TMiC6wcoUI

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 22, 2026

Even being a convicted pedophile as well as an illegal migrant isn’t enough to warrant deportation:

The pattern is undeniable. Activist judges, human rights laws that handcuff the Home Office, and a political class addicted to open borders keep handing victories to those who should never have been here in the first place. 

Britain’s children and communities deserve better. The safety of the public must come first – not endless excuses for foreign criminals.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 06:30

Nearly 1 In 4 Americans Over 65 Are Still Working

For a growing share of Americans, retirement no longer starts at 65.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, shows where people aged 65 and older are still working across U.S. states, based on 2024 data from the U.S. Census Bureau via FinanceBuzz.

About 22% of Americans 65+ remain in the workforce, but the share climbs to nearly one-third in some states. The gap highlights how cost of living, job availability, and shifting retirement systems are reshaping when—and whether—Americans stop working.

The Workforces With The Most Seniors

The New England states of Vermont and New Hampshire (both 28.6%) lead the country in the number of seniors still working, followed by South Dakota at 27.6%.

A clear regional pattern emerges: Northeastern states dominate the top ranks, with many posting rates above 26%. Higher living costs and longer life expectancy likely contribute to more Americans 65+ staying in the workforce.

Most people are not working full-time, however. In fact, among its retirement-age workers, Vermont has the highest concentration of part-time employees nationwide, reflecting in part the social role work plays in many older Americans’ lives.

The Two Full-Time States

On the flip side, there’s Maryland, which has the highest share of full-time retirement-age workers in the country.

Maryland and Hawaii are actually the only two states in which a majority of working people aged 65 and up are employed full-time. Full-time work is generally essential for seniors who cannot rely on other retirement sources of income, such as Social Security, or who obtain needed benefits through their job.

The decline of traditional pensions is a key driver behind this shift. With retirement savings increasingly tied to 401(k) plans and market performance, many Americans are working longer to maintain financial security.

West Virginia and the Truly Retired

Among the 50 states in the country, West Virginia (16.7%) has the lowest share of retirement-age workers. It’s followed by Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, and Oregon, all of which sit around 19%.

In lower-ranking states like West Virginia and Arkansas, fewer Americans 65+ remain in the workforce—likely reflecting a mix of fewer job opportunities and lower living costs. In these areas, retirement may still be more attainable than continuing to work.

They may also have differing lifestyle preferences, electing to devote more time to family commitments than to the structure or social component of a job or so-called “side hustle.”

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mapping Unemployment Claims per 100,000 Workers on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 05:45

Study Shows Some Humans Are Evolving To Be 'Foxier'

Authored by David Randall via RealClearScience,

The latest report from David Reich’s genetics lab at Harvard is that “Ancient DNA reveals pervasive directional selection across West Eurasia.” In other words, humans have been continuing to evolve in Europe and the Middle East for the last 10,000 years, with significant effect. Reich’s paper broadly substantiates the thesis of Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending’s The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution. Civilization hasn’t ended biological evolution, but proceeds alongside it. 

Reich’s genome-wide association study (GWAS) indicates that West Eurasians have increased or reduced their vulnerability to a variety of ailments. Genetic changes have rendered them less susceptible to leprosy, rheumatoid arthritis, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia, and moreso to coeliac disease and gout. At the same time, there has been positive selection for fair skin, red hair, and intelligence, and negative selection for male-pattern baldness. In summary, West Eurasians have grown foxier, as the arc of their genetic history bends toward fluffy ginger genius. 

Reich’s conclusions are pretty likely to hold water. Too many scientific and social scientific fields have been affected by the irreproducibility crisis of modern science. The worst-hit disciplines use far too loose a definition of statistical significance, p < 0.05. Genome-wide association studies, by contrast, tend to use the extraordinarily tighter standard of p < 5 × 10^ −8. Reich lab’s research includes a variety of different standards of statistical significance, including some that are only of p < 8.9 × 10^ −5. That standard is orders of magnitude more reliable than most research. 

The data Reich’s lab can work with, after all, is remarkably bounteous. As the researchers wrote:

[W]e increased power through a 14-fold increase in sample size, driven by 10,016 ancient individuals for whom we report new data, which combined with previously reported data yields a dataset of 15,836 people spanning 18,000 years … The final dataset included 8,074,573 SNPs [single-nucleotide polymorphisms] and 1,665,051 insertions or deletions (indels) on chromosomes 1–22. 

Science only can advance on sure foundations when you’re reasonably likely the research will hold up. Sociology, psychology, any discipline where you cannot work with millions of pieces of data, cannot be expected to match GWAS levels of rigorous statistical significance. But, as many scientists have proposed, p < 0.01 or p < 0.005 are not impossible goals, even for disciplines less rich in data. Reich’s peers in other disciplines should look at his work and consider the benefits of reasonable certainty that a paper you publish actually says something true. 

Americans in general might also take Reich’s work as a prompt to reconsider our various moratoria on using American Indian biological data to provide gene samples. Reich’s report on West Eurasian genetic data presumably is only a beginning. We may expect reports to come on East Eurasians, Sub-Saharan Africans, Aboriginal Australians, Khoisan in South African, American Indians in Latin America—reports on people all over the world.

Except on the American Indians of the United States.

Our legal, regulatory, and cultural inhibitions mean that there will be an enduring blank spot in the knowledge we gain from the genetics revolution—knowledge which will aid not only paleogenetic research but also advances in medicine tailored to each individual’s DNA. American Indians might be the last people on Earth to benefit from such advances in genetically individuated medicine if we continue to veto researchers’ use of American Indian genetic and paleogenetic data. 

Science funders also should note that science proceeds by joint work in many disciplines and isn’t just a high-tech plaything. The Reich lab’s research depended not least upon “10,016 ancient individuals for whom we report new data.” Those individuals didn’t just show up in laboratories by magic. They came there by careful work by archaeologists, by intelligent observations from interested amateurs, by hard and careful work in caves, in ancient graves, and in sudden gullies opened by rainstorms. Brawn, physical finesse, and something of the Indiana Jones spirit of adventure were as important for making this research possible as microscopes and microchips. Dear Mr. and Mrs. Moneybags: no dig, no data. We all should remember that, too. 

David Randall is the Director of Research at the National Association of Scholars.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 05:00

US Throttles Intelligence-Sharing With South Korea After Nuclear Disclosure Row

The United States has reduced intelligence sharing with South Korea pertaining to eavesdropping on North Korea following an alleged leak tied to sensitive information, according to local media reports.

But it is a major allegation that the government has dismissed as 'absurd'. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung took to X at the start of this week to write, "Any claim or action based on the premise that Minister Chung ‘leaked classified information provided by the US’ is wrong."

Bloomberg, citing Yonhap and others, wrote that "South Korean media reported that the US is limiting intelligence sharing on North Korea with Seoul after Unification Minister Chung Dong-young publicly identified North Korea’s uranium enrichment facility in Kusong last month."

AFP/Getty Images

Washington reportedly began limiting access earlier this month to certain intelligence linked to North Korea’s technological capabilities, widely believed to involve aspects of its nuclear program, according to Yonhap News.

"It's true that the US side has been restricting sharing parts of North Korean intelligence collected through satellites from early this month," a senior military official said. "(The restricted sharing of intelligence) is related to information regarding parts of North Korea's technology."

Some 28,500 US troops are permanently stationed in South Korea, and the US is a longtime military partner going back to the Korean War of the mid-20th century. US intel-sharing has always heavily assisted Seoul with missile warning data and satellite surveillance.

The whole rare episode stems from remarks by South Korea's Unification Minister Chung Dong-young during a March 6 parliamentary session, when he openly identified Kusong as a third North Korean uranium enrichment site alongside facilities at Yongbyon and Kangson.

The speech marked a first official acknowledgment by Seoul of the Kusong site, which then triggered backlash from Washington, featuring complaints from US officials through diplomatic and military channels who viewed it as a potential exposure of sensitive, possibly shared intelligence.

Chung in turn rejected the accusations, framing his remarks as all based in open source and public data which can be found through research reports.

Pyongyang is probably enjoying the spectacle, having long vehemently denounced the US presence on the Korean peninsula, also given the sporadic docking of a US nuclear submarine. This is a very rare moment of tensions among allies on the Korean peninsula. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 04:15

Coinbase Now Lets UK Users Borrow Against Their Bitcoin And Ethereum

Via Decrypt.co,

• Coinbase launched crypto-backed USDC lending for U.K. users on Monday.

• Bitcoin holders can borrow up to $5 million in USDC, with Ethereum-backed loans capped at $1 million.

• The service uses Morpho, an open-source lending protocol on Ethereum layer-2 network, Base.

Crypto exchange Coinbase has expanded its lending service, now allowing U.K. customers to borrow USDC stablecoins using their Bitcoin or Ethereum holdings as collateral.

The service operates through Morpho, an open-source lending protocol on Base—the Coinbase-backed Ethereum layer-2 network—that powers Coinbase's crypto-backed loans.

U.K. users can pledge cryptocurrency as collateral to access USDC liquidity without liquidating their digital assets.

Borrowing limits vary by collateral type.

Bitcoin holders can access up to $5 million in USDC, while Ethereum-backed loans top out at $1 million, depending on the amount pledged.

Coinbase first launched the crypto-backed loan service in the United States in January 2025, and said it has facilitated $2.17 billion USDC in loan originations as of April 14.

The lending product adds to Coinbase's growing U.K. service portfolio.

The exchange introduced decentralized exchange trading for U.K. users just last week, and previously launched savings accounts in November 2025.

These offerings followed Coinbase's February 2025 FCA registration, which enabled the firm to expand regulated services in the market.

“Crypto-backed loans are part of Coinbase’s efforts to build the number one financial app in the U.K.,” said Coinbase U.K. CEO, in a statement.

“We want to be the best place for U.K. consumers to invest, manage and grow their money.”

Coinbase (COIN) shares on the Nasdaq are down about 1% on the day at a current price above $204, though they’re up nearly 17% over the last week amid broader crypto and stock market recoveries.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 03:30

China Loads Up On US Chip Tools Via Southeast Asia Amid Supply Chain Shift

China's imports of chipmaking equipment from Malaysia and Singapore rose sharply in 2025 to surpass those from the US, which sank to an eight-year low, an analysis by Nikkei Asia has found - even as American companies remain a vital source of advanced tools for the country.

While the Netherlands and Japan remain China's primary foreign sources of critical semiconductor manufacturing machines by shipment origin, imports from the two Southeast Asian countries reached record levels: $5.7 billion for Singapore, up more than 17% year over year, and $3.4 billion for Malaysia, more than double the 2024 figure.

Direct imports from the US, meanwhile, declined more than 34% to about $2 billion, the lowest level since 2017, according to Chinese customs data. The decline was to be expected following President Trump's return to the White House, as he sharply limited access of US semiconductors to China, although tensions began earlier. Since Trump's first term and during the subsequent Biden administration, the US has raised tariffs and imposed fresh export controls aimed at slowing China's advances in chipmaking technologies for defense, space and artificial intelligence applications.

Despite the decline, the Chinese market remained a critical revenue source for leading US chip equipment makers last year. Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA all earned more than 30% of their total sales from China in fiscal 2025.

Charles Shi, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Needham & Co., told Nikkei Asia that the uptick in China's imports from Southeast Asia is mainly due to the large number of U.S. chip equipment makers expanding manufacturing capacity in the region to better serve non-U.S. clients.

"Lam Research is building significant manufacturing capacity in Malaysia as they work to meet growing equipment demand beyond what their U.S. manufacturing capacity can serve," Shi said. "Singapore has been a popular destination for [the] U.S. equipment industry to go overseas. For example, both Applied Materials and KLA have been manufacturing in Singapore."

The three top U.S. chip tool makers generated nearly $19 billion in combined revenue from China in fiscal 2025, significantly exceeding figures implied by customs data based on where shipments originated from and underscoring the effectiveness of American vendors' production diversification strategies. Nikkei Asia first reported their production shift toward Southeast Asia in early 2023.

For ASML of the Netherlands, China's share of revenue came to 29.1% in 2025, while the figure for top Japanese chip tool maker Tokyo Electron was more than 40% for fiscal 2025.

Anticipating major chip wars, over the course of 2020 to 2025, China's accumulated chip tool imports from Japan reached more than $42 billion, followed by the Netherlands' $35 billion . Japan is home to many top chip equipment makers such as Tokyo Electron, Screen Semiconductor Solutions and Ebara, while the Netherlands has the world's largest chip equipment maker, ASML, as well as key suppliers such as ASM, an atomic-level deposition tool specialist, and Besi, a maker of advanced chip packaging tools.

Meanwhile, China's domestic chipmaking equipment makers are experiencing a once-in-a-generation surge in growth, driven by Beijing's push to foster homegrown tools and reduce reliance on foreign technologies. Top suppliers all reported record revenue and profits for 2025, led by Naura, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (AMEC), ACM Research and Piotech.

Naura, China's answer to Applied Materials, has seen its revenue balloon from 6.05 billion yuan ($887 million) in 2020 to 27.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue for AMEC skyrocketed more than 400% from 2020 to 2025. Piotech, a thin-film deposition chip tool specialist, has seen its revenue grow 13 times between 2020 and 2025.

Shi of Needham said China has made good progress in fostering local chip tool makers, but internal competition is intensifying. "While leading domestic equipment companies are still posting strong revenue growth, there are indications that their margin performance is deteriorating," Shi said of Chinese chipmaking companies. "We believe intensifying domestic competition might have forced domestic equipment companies to 'race to the bottom' by undercutting each other's prices."

With China's equipment suppliers becoming more competitive in recent years, US policymakers are seeking to further close loopholes in export rules. In April, bipartisan lawmakers introduced the MATCH Act, which calls on "multilateral allies" to coordinate more closely in aligning and tightening export restrictions across key segments of the chipmaking equipment industry. These measures would further target critical "chokepoint" components and machinery, as well as shipments to leading Chinese memory and logic chipmakers, including CXMT, YMTC, SMIC and Hua Hong.

"Chinese tool companies on the Entity List are unable to get access to U.S. parts, but there are many parts that Europe and Japan can backfill, and that's the conundrum that we find ourselves in today," Kevin Kurland, a former official at the U.S. Department of Commerce and current senior advisor at Beacon Global Strategies, told Nikkei Asia. "If controls don't get aligned multilaterally with allies, U.S. controls can undercut American companies' competitiveness while allowing Chinese companies to continue to function and operate - a lose-lose outcome.

Alex Rubin, a former CIA China analyst and visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, told Nikkei Asia that "component export controls definitely make sense."

"It's very similar to what we are seeing in commercial aviation: China is assembling the finished C919 aircraft, but is sourcing parts from U.S. and European suppliers. Chinese companies are trying to compete with Boeing and Airbus, while sourcing from a similar supply chain," Rubin said.

While China is still massively sourcing foreign chip tools, its ultimate goal is self sufficiency, industry sources say.

While durability, reliability and performance may not be at the same level, "for every foreign chipmaking tool, material and component you can think of, you could find Chinese versions," said an executive with a Taiwanese chipmaking tool who participated in the Semicon China industry event in late March. "Chinese chipmakers will continue to buy foreign solutions while they can, but there's no doubt about the country's will to increase the use of homegrown suppliers."

"China is adopting a two-way approach: developing homegrown tools while continuing to purchase foreign equipment whenever possible. Since imported tools often offer better performance, they are still buying aggressively -- and even repurposing consumable parts from one piece of equipment to repair other chipmaking machines," another chip industry executive with knowledge of the matter told Nikkei Asia.

A third executive with a Chinese chipmaking tool supplier told Nikkei Asia that the aggressive expansion plans by Chinese logic and memory chipmakers have given local vendors more opportunities to break into and secure a position in the domestic supply chain.

Nikkei Asia was the first to report that Chinese top chipmakers led by SMIC, Hua Hong and Huawei-linked chipmakers are aiming to aggressively expand advanced chip production capacity, including on the performance level of 7-nanometer or even 5-nm technologies, to support the rise of domestic AI chip developers. Meanwhile, top Chinese memory chip producers CXMT and YMTC are launching their largest expansions in response to the unprecedented global memory crunch amid the AI boom, Nikkei revealed in early February.

American allies such as the Netherlands and Japan have already introduced rules to align with U.S. export controls, but policymakers in Washington feel those restrictions are still much too loose. The U.S. has imposed multiple rounds of regulation on exports to China and has added many leading Chinese chip equipment suppliers and chipmakers to its Entity List.

The MATCH Act, if passed, could further limit global vendors' ability to supply critical tech to China. The bill targets some older - though still critical - generations of chipmaking machines as well as components, both of which can be chokepoints for China's efforts to build up its domestic chip industry. Introduced in early April, the bill still needs to go through the legislative process, and it remains unclear how the Netherlands, Japan and other countries would respond to any diplomatic pressure to comply. For example, only ASML in the Netherlands and Canon and Nikon in Japan can produce commercially viable lithography machines -- an area where China continues to face significant challenges.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 02:45

Spain's Services Crumble; Military-Aged Male Migrants Overwhelm Registry Offices

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Huge queues of migrants continue to snake through Spanish cities this week as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s socialist government opened the floodgates on its controversial mass regularization program. Applications for legal status and work permits kicked off last Thursday following cabinet approval, and the scenes unfolding in Barcelona, Zaragoza, Sevilla and beyond confirm the worst fears of those who warned this amnesty would break the system.

It is the direct result of the chaos already documented after Sánchez rammed through his plan to legalize half a million undocumented migrants already inside the country. As thousands swarmed consulates and offices demanding paperwork, the very public services Spaniards rely on are now buckling under the pressure.

In Barcelona, Pakistani migrants rushed the consulate for criminal record certificates required under the scheme.

SPAIN: Pakistani migrants are rushing to the consulate in Barcelona for their paperwork, as the government plans to regularize 500,000 illegals.

Notice they are all military-aged men, no women or children. They will soon be able to move freely across Europe. This won’t end well. pic.twitter.com/tSepsIqY55

— Dr. Maalouf ‏ (@realMaalouf) April 19, 2026

Miles de pakistaníes después de ser regularizados por Pedro Sánchez se van a la oficina de servicios sociales del Ayuntamiento de Barcelona?? para coger el certificado de vulnerabilidad y tener derecho a casa gratis y el IMV

Todo esto pagado por ti por supuesto. pic.twitter.com/EWtILqPBcE

— Anonymous Tabarnia ? (@Anonymous_TA) April 18, 2026

Footage from Zaragoza showed similar crowds overwhelming local offices:

???Footage from Spain's Zaragoza as thousands of migrants rush to be legalized.

The VOX party: "Total collapse of the City Council in the face of the avalanche of illegal immigrants who want to take advantage of Sánchez's regularization."pic.twitter.com/OISJ1gsyXs

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) April 20, 2026

In Valencia the lines were massive:

?? Así son las kilométricas que colapsan el centro de Valencia por la regularización masiva de Sánchez. pic.twitter.com/SjyUctmL0I

— okdiario.com (@okdiario) April 20, 2026

In Sevilla, VOX candidate Manuel Gavira posted video of long lines outside city hall and delivered a stark warning: “These are the lines in Seville to manage mass regularization. What you see here today… tomorrow you’ll see it in the clinics, in social assistance, in housing, and in all public services. It’s called collapse. And it has already begun.”

Estas son las colas en Sevilla para gestionar la regularización masiva.

Lo que hoy ves aquí… mañana lo verás en los ambulatorios, en las ayudas sociales, en la vivienda y en todos los servicios públicos.

Se llama colapso. Y ya ha empezado. pic.twitter.com/4rrHZUVDGs

— Manuel Gavira ?? (@GaviraVox) April 20, 2026

The Daily Mail reports that migrants are camping overnight outside registry offices and shopping-mall centers in Catalunya, Andalucia and Asturias. One Colombian in Barcelona told reporters he arrived at 10 or 11pm and waited 15 hours. A Honduran migrant who slept on the floor said, “A very large group of people almost trampled me… We risked our lives, but it will be worth it.”

Spain throws open its doors to undocumented migrants: Huge queues continue to form after socialist government granted citizenship to 500,000 people https://t.co/2kaUvoPqlr

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 20, 2026

Sánchez himself defended the move in a public letter, claiming it was both moral and economic: “Spain is ageing… Without more people working and contributing to the economy, our prosperity slows, and our public services suffer.”

In every city in Spain there are lines of invaders to whom Pedro Sanchez has promised identity documents to regulate them. Pedro Sanchez, public enemy number one of Europeans. pic.twitter.com/k1Mo3Kpa2u

— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) April 17, 2026

Yet critics point out the obvious: Spain already has roughly 840,000 undocumented migrants and a foreign-born population nearing 10 million out of 50 million total. Ninety percent of new jobs have gone to immigrants while native Spaniards face housing shortages and strained services. Legalizing another half-million without fixing those problems only accelerates the breakdown.

The nationalist VOX Party has labeled the policy an “invasion” that “attacks our identity” and has vowed to challenge it in the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, immigration officers are threatening to strike over lack of resources. Local councils are already talking about early closures because the system cannot cope.

Just days before the avalanche of applications began, legal challengers warned that Sánchez’s mass amnesty could still be stopped. A conservative group, Hazte Oír, successfully petitioned the Spanish Supreme Court to review the controversial Royal Decree used to bypass parliament. The court has given the government a non-extendable 20-day deadline to hand over all files, raising the real possibility of a precautionary suspension that would freeze the entire legalization process.

Hazte Oír argued the decree creates “irreparable damage” by granting residence, work permits, Social Security registration, access to benefits and the suspension of expulsion orders to hundreds of thousands of people — changes that would be almost impossible to reverse even if the court later rules the shortcut illegal.

The group stressed that the measure “structurally alters the State’s immigration policy, with direct and lasting effects” on the labour market, public benefits system, municipal registry, “and, in the medium term, the electoral roll.”

Lawyer Javier María Pérez-Roldán warned: “Massive regularization without planning directly impacts the saturation of essential public services (educational and social), affecting the collective interests that this association defends.”

VOX leader Santiago Abascal had already sounded the alarm as the first queues formed: “These are the lines to manage mass regularization in each municipality of Spain. Tomorrow this chaos will move to the centres of health, to the social services, to the real estate agencies… It’s called thirdworldization. It’s already happening. Our priority is to reverse it, radically.”

The scenes unfolding this week prove Abascal correct: the chaos has already begun. If the Supreme Court does not intervene quickly, Spain will have crossed a point of no return — handing EU-wide freedom of movement to half a million undocumented migrants while its own public services buckle.

The pattern is unmistakable. Sánchez’s progressive coalition ignores the strain on housing, healthcare, schools and welfare while fast-tracking residency permits that will let recipients work legally and eventually travel freely throughout Europe in Schengen. Once again, Spanish citizens are told to accept lower wages, longer waits and cultural transformation in the name of “diversity” and GDP growth that never seems to reach the native population.

Spain is not alone in Europe, but it stands out for doubling down while neighbors tighten borders. The queues in Barcelona, Zaragoza and Sevilla are not a one-off photo opportunity. They are the visible symptom of a policy that prioritizes outsiders over citizens and votes over sovereignty. As VOX has warned, the collapse has already begun. Spaniards who value their country, their culture and their children’s future have been put on notice.

The rest of the West should watch closely. When governments treat borders as suggestions and citizens as afterthoughts, the consequences arrive faster than any press release can spin them.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 02:00

Ukraine Billionaire Spends $554 Million For World's Most Expensive Apartment In Monte Carlo

It makes sense that a nation which has consistently ranked at the top in all global corruption rankings, produces some of the most extravagant demonstrations of stolen wealth. 

Take billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, among many other assets owner of the Azovstal steel complex in Mariupol which became one of the defining clashes in the Ukraine war, and Ukraine’s richest man, who bought a vast, five-floor luxury apartment in Monaco’s most prestigious new development for an eye-popping €471 million ($554 million), making it the biggest single home transactions in history according to Bloomberg.

The 21-room waterfront property, acquired by the businessman’s holding company, is located in the principality’s Mareterra district. The new area, built on reclaimed land, was inaugurated by Prince Albert II in 2024 and has drawn ultra-rich investors from around the world.

Le Renzo in Mareterra, Monte Carlo

Situated in the flagship “Le Renzo” building, the apartment stretches over about 2,500 square meters (27,000 square feet), not counting balconies and terraces looking out over the Mediterranean Sea. It also has a private swimming pool, jacuzzi and comes with at least eight parking spots.

Details of the sale, which was finalized in 2024, or about two years after Akhmetov's country was deep in a brutal war with thousands of his countrymen dying on the front every day, come from the principality’s property records, as well as a stash of emails and preliminary deeds reviewed by Bloomberg Businessweek from Distributed Denial of Secrets, a nonprofit that preserves hacked and leaked materials believed to be in the public interest.

Akhmetov’s holding company, System Capital Management, or SCM, confirmed it it had made an acquisition in the development, though declined to provide details about the property or price. 

“SCM’s international investment portfolio has included a standalone premium real estate portfolio for over ten years, as has been publicly stated on multiple occasions,” it said in a statement. “Among its assets is the ‘Le Renzo’ project, in which we made an investment on the primary market in 2021.”

Premium real estate; half a billion dollars for an apartment is a different galaxy, especially sine most of the money was likely sourced from US taxpayers. The reported price would make it the biggest known home sale in history, outstripping the recent sale of developer Nick Candy’s Chelsea mansion for more than $350 million or the sale of a New York penthouse apartment to hedge fund manager Ken Griffin for about $240 million.

Perched on a rocky outcrop between France and Italy, Monaco has long been the priciest real-estate market in the world because of its small size and tax haven status. The Mareterra development was built up over a decade on land reclaimed from the sea and includes 114 luxury villas, townhouses and apartments set around gardens, a harbor and public promenade.

Akhmetov’s purchase agreement in the principality came just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The war subsequently created upheaval within his business empire including attacks on energy assets in his home country.

Akhmetov was pivotal in arranging a lasting relationship between his employee and close friend Paul Manafort and former Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovich, whose US-mediated ouster was the trigger for the eventual war between Ukraine and Russia.

The tycoon has a net worth of more than $7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. His fortune is rooted in SCM, Ukraine’s largest industrial conglomerate with investments in metallurgy, mining and energy, in addition to property. 

Akhmetov has also been associated with a string of other ultra high-end property acquisitions in the past, including the 2019 purchase for €200 million of the historic Villa Les Cèdres on the French Riviera. The sprawling estate in the exclusive Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat was once owned by King Leopold II of Belgium.  In 2011, Akhmetov also reportedly bought a penthouse in London’s prestigious One Hyde Park development opposite the Harrods department store in Knightsbridge.

Mareterra properties have sold for prices surpassing the symbolic €100,000 a square meter, according to local property agents, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. One three-bedroom property is currently on the market for about €76 million. There are also rental listings for four and five-room apartments for €150,000 a month.

Official statistics show that the Larvotto district where Mareterra is located has become the principality’s most expensive in terms of estimated selling prices per square meter. The data doesn’t break out prices for properties in the development and these aren’t generally listed on broker websites.

“Monaco remains one of the world’s most exclusive and resilient residential markets,” Savills said in a report published in March, noting that it’s “shaped by structural scarcity and sustained high international demand.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/22/2026 - 00:05

Nobel Physicist Predicts 'End-Date' For Modern Civilization

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross has provided a sobering timeline for the potential end of modern civilisation, citing the escalating risks of nuclear war.

The 2004 Nobel laureate estimates that humanity may have roughly 35 years remaining before facing existential catastrophe from nuclear conflict.

In an interview, Gross detailed his assessment based on probability calculations similar to radioactive half-life models. He noted that after the Cold War, estimates put the annual chance of nuclear war at one percent. However, he believes the figure is now closer to two percent.

Chilling warning from Nobel physicist as date is set for humanity's final destruction https://t.co/WKhFHWcIs3

— Daily Mail US (@Daily_MailUS) April 20, 2026

“Even after the Cold War ended, when we had strategic arms control treaties, all of which have disappeared, there were estimates that there was a one percent chance of nuclear war every year,” Gross said.

He continued, “I feel it’s not a rigorous estimate that the chances are more likely two percent. So that’s a one-in-50 chance every year. The expected lifetime, in the case of two percent per year, is about 35 years.”

Gross pointed to deteriorating global conditions as justification for his higher estimate. “Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper,” he stated.

He highlighted ongoing conflicts and nuclear proliferation. There are now nine nuclear powers, complicating arms control significantly. “Even three is infinitely more complicated than two,” Gross observed.

Recent developments include the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, with no major nuclear arms-control agreements signed in the past decade.

Gross also raised concerns about advancing technology, particularly automation and artificial intelligence in weapons systems.

“The agreements, the norms between countries, are all falling apart,” he said. “Weapons are getting crazier. Automation, and perhaps even AI, will be in control of those instruments pretty soon.”

“It’s going to be very hard to resist making AI make decisions because it acts so fast,” Gross warned, noting that AI can sometimes “hallucinate” or produce inaccurate outputs.

He expressed deep concern for humanity’s future beyond scientific progress: “You asked me to think about the future, and I am obsessed the last few years, thinking about that, not the future of ideas and understanding nature, but of the survival of humanity.”

Despite the grim outlook, Gross expressed some optimism, stating of nuclear weapons: “We made them; we can stop them.”

The post quickly drew responses on X reflecting a range of views.

One took a philosophical stance: “There no end date.. people have been guessing.. for a long time.. when it our time it’s our time… an Asteroid can hit Tomorrow and wipe out the planet and we probably wouldn’t be able to process it… a renegade Volcano can explode setting off the next extinction event and we wouldn’t know what to do.. live your life.. it’s all you can do..”

Several users ironcially turned to AI for answers, with one writing: “Tell us the date and time @grok.” and another echoing: “@grok what’s the date and time?”

A different commenter expressed skepticism about the role of global elites: “If his thinks rich billionaires are going to allow nuclear war.. then take away his Nobel prize cause that not happening any time soon.”

Gross, who won the Nobel Prize for his work on asymptotic freedom in quantum chromodynamics, has shifted much of his recent focus to humanity’s long-term survival. His remarks connect the probability model directly to current events, including tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia.

By framing the risk in concrete yearly percentages and an expected timeframe, the physicist aims to translate abstract geopolitical dangers into something more immediate and calculable. Whether the two-percent annual figure holds or shifts with future developments remains to be seen, but the underlying message is clear: the window for preventive action is narrowing.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 23:25

From Tank Rides To Overseeing Missile Tests: Kim Jong Un's Teenage Daughter Prepped As Likely Successor

Longtime North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a test launch of missiles equipped with multiple reentry vehicles, a move that drew limited international attention despite its escalation risk.

"The purpose of the test-fire is to verify the characteristics and power of cluster bomb warhead and fragmentation mine warhead applied to the tactical ballistic missile," North Korean state media reported Sunday. "Five tactical ballistic missiles, launched towards the target area around an island about 136 km away, struck the area of 12.5~13 hectares with the very high density, fully displaying their combat might."

Kim's daughter, Kim Ju Ae, attended the launch - the latest in a series of recent public appearances alongside her father - a trend which has only intensified speculation about his succession planning.

Just several weeks ago, his daughter was filmed and photographed enjoying a battle tank ride alongside her father. Per prior reporting in the NY Times:

It seems like a familiar rite of passage: a dad teaching his daughter to drive. Except in this case, the girl is at the helm of a hulking battle tank, her head sticking out from the driver’s hatch, while the father — the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un — reclines on the hull behind her.

The video and photographs of the girl, Kim Ju-ae, who is believed to be around 13, apparently driving the heavily armed vehicle during a military exercise, were published last month by North Korean state media. It was the latest in a series of public appearances that have fueled speculation that she is being groomed to succeed her father.

That theory has gained added credence from South Korea’s spy agency, which now believes Ju-ae has officially been chosen to succeed her father, South Korean lawmakers briefed on the matter said on Monday. They added that the agency’s analysis was based on “credible intelligence” rather than circumstantial context.

In the tank video, Mr. Kim is shown riding on the hull, smiling and occasionally leaning down to speak to his daughter, who is looking straight ahead.

A South Korean lawmaker subsequently saw in the whole scene "an intent to highlight Ju-ae's military exceptionality" and "dilute skepticism of a female heir."

Trump and Kim met three times between 2018 and 2020, but talks collapsed without an agreement - and this was followed by a period marked by rising tensions under Biden.

WATCH: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un rides in new tank with daughter pic.twitter.com/Pq78MSNjKt

— Rapid Report (@RapidReport2025) March 20, 2026

North Korea's freshly conducted the test reportedly utilized fragmentation-style munitions after Iran deployed similar systems against Israel. Missiles carrying cluster or fragmenting warheads can overwhelm and evade advanced air defense systems.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 22:10

US, Philippines Launch Their 'Biggest Ever' Balikatan Drills With Large Japanese Contingent

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The US and the Philippines on Monday launched what’s being billed as the "biggest ever" Balikatan Exercise, an annual military drill that, for the first time, includes a significant contingent of Japanese troops as Tokyo increases its military activity in the region, ramping up tensions with China.

The drills are scheduled to take place from April 20 to May 8 and will involve more than 17,000 troops, including about 1,400 Japanese military personnel.

US Army photo

Importantly, exercises will include live-fire drills in the northern Philippines, facing Taiwan, and in Palawan, an island province facing the disputed South China Sea.

The start of the drills comes amid a very fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is due to expire on Wednesday if it’s not extended.

While the US has committed more than 60,000 troops to the Middle East, the Trump administration continues to focus on building alliances in the Asia-Pacific as part of its strategy against China, including a new security deal with Indonesia.

In response to the start of the Balikitan drills, the Chinese Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the US activity in the region.

"The world has seen enough damage done by unilateralism and abuse of military might. What the Asia-Pacific needs most is peace and tranquility, and the last thing the region needs is division and confrontation as a result of the introduction of external forces," said spokesman Guo Jiakun.

The location of the same drills last year, via AEI's Critical Threats Project

"No military and security cooperation should be conducted at the expense of mutual understanding and trust as well as peace and stability in the region. Such cooperation should not target any third party or harm the interests of any third party. For countries that tie their own security to others, it is important to bear in mind that this may very well backfire," Guo added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 21:45

Halliburton Sees First Signs Of Life In America's Oil Patch: "We Are In Early Innings"

An emerging theme we are focusing on is the early stage of a major capex upcycle in America's oil patch, with even Goldman now moving in that direction and forecasting a boom that could echo the industry's expansion cycle of the early 2000s.

Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler was the first of the major oil patch players to mention in early April that "Continental is increasing our capital budget, which will increase production."

Now, another giant of the oil patch, Halliburton, a major supplier of the gear, crews, and services that keep drilling and fracking going, reports new signs of life in oilfield activity across North America. 

"While these calls are not for committed crews, they do suggest incremental demand is building in spot markets with smaller operators. This is the leading edge of capacity tightening. While we are in the early innings, in my view the setup for North America is constructive. Premium equipment is already tightening," Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller told investors in the company's first-quarter earnings statement earlier today. 

Halliburton reported strong international performance, especially in Latin America, where revenue jumped 22% year over year, helping to offset disruptions in the Gulf area. The company still beat Bloomberg Consensus expectations on adjusted earnings, though the conflict in the Middle East reduced profit in its drilling and evaluation units by about 2 to 3 cents per share. 

Melius Research analyst James West noted that Halliburton "posted a solid beat across the board" that was "driven by international strength that more than offset continued North America softness." 

Miller's comments about signs of life returning to the oil patch add to remarks made by Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler earlier this month. 

This leaves us asking whether a broader shale response is still to come...

Answering that question is a team of Goldman analysts led by Michele Della Vigna, who now expects "the sector is poised for a major oil capex upcycle, similar to that of the early 2000s."

We must point out that the oil patch has yet to respond to WTI futures topping $110 a barrel, before sliding to $83 a barrel. WTI tradnig around $89 on Tuesday morning. 

Della Vigna outlined, "The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East since February 28 may have accelerated the timing of a structural capex upcycle, which we now expect to start in 2027."

She also laid out a list of companies that clients should be long as this emerging theme begins to revive life in the oil patch. Read the report here.

In short, Halliburton has been a leading oilfield services player in North America for decades, and its commentary may be one of the first real signals that the investment cycle is turning up. After a long stretch of under investment, the trend now appears to be shifting back toward renewed capital spending and reserve expansion.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 21:20

US Treasury Sanctions 14 Targets For Helping Iran Obtain Weapons

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Treasury Department on April 21 announced that it is imposing sanctions on 14 targets “for their involvement in helping the Iranian regime obtain weapons,” in contravention of international sanctions.

“As the regime attempts to reconstitute its production capacity, the United States will continue to deplete Iran’s ballistic missile inventories,” the Treasury wrote in a post on X.

According to a press release from the Treasury, the targets include 14 “individuals, entities, and aircraft” based in Iran, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, “for their involvement in procuring or transporting weapons or weapons components on behalf of the Iranian regime.”

During the military operations in the region, the United States and Israel have sought to deplete Iran’s weapons reserves, particularly targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites.

Amid these operations, the Treasury said, Iran “is seeking to reconstitute its production capacity.”

The Treasury noted that increasingly, the Persian state is relying on one-way, unmanned drones to target U.S. and allied locations in the Middle East, and indicated that the Treasury would continue to work to prevent Iran from obtaining weapons.

“The Iranian regime must be held accountable for its extortion of global energy markets and indiscriminate targeting of civilians with missiles and drones,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

“Under President [Donald] Trump’s leadership, as part of Economic Fury, Treasury will continue to follow the money and target the Iranian regime’s recklessness and those who enable it,” Bessent added.

Currently, the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding. On Tuesday, Trump agreed to extend the ceasefire, but tensions with Iran remain high.

“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Simultaneously, Trump said the U.S. military will extend the more-than-week-long naval blockade of Iranian ports, saying that it will, “in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic.

Iran briefly opened the all-important shipping route on April 17 after the initial ceasefire agreement, but again closed the area to commercial shipping the next day, citing the ongoing U.S. blockade of its ports.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 20:55

NewMexit: Secession In The Southwest?

Authored by Stephen Anderson via The Mises Institute,

Lea and Roosevelt counties in the US state of New Mexico (NM) in 2026 are seeking to secede and join the state of Texas.

“There was a state representative or two from New Mexico who were expressing frustration with the government in Santa Fe,” Texas State Representative Carl Tepper said.

“They have expressed an interest in being annexed by Texas, . . .”

Their action is referred to as “NewMexit.”

Ludwig von Mises wrote many times that a group of people in a sovereign nation or province should have the freedom to secede from that place to join another like-minded province or nation or become an independent nation.

These two counties are part of a growing US movement where people in counties tire of their state’s policies and taxation that inhibit economic growth, lessen individual freedom, issue cumbersome regulations interfering with operation of a privately-owned business and family decision-making.

Here is a March 2025 Mises Power and Market article on this topic.

“Republican New Mexico lawmakers have floated the idea of allowing counties to secede from the state to either join another state or create a new state in the United States.”

Former New Mexico Republican state Sen. Cliff R. Pirtle of Chaves, Eddy, and Otero counties introduced Senate Joint Resolution 15 in 2021 to amend the state constitution. The resolution died in committee.

According to one source, “On Jan. 26, 2026, New Mexico Republican state Reps. Randall Pettigrew of Lea County and Jimmy Mason of Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties tried to revive the secession path for the state’s counties. The representatives introduced House Joint Resolution 10.”

But “. . .the resolution died as it was ‘postponed indefinitely’ in the state’s legislature, which gaveled out of session in mid-February.”

The US Census estimated 2025 population for Lea County is about 75,000 and the Roosevelt County estimated 2025 population is about 19,000. The estimated NM state population is about 2.1 million so losing both counties is 4.5 percent of the state’s population.

The NM county map above shows Lea and Roosevelt counties’ location on the Texas border.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 20:05

'Eliminating Energy Blockade Top Priority' As Cuba Confirms Direct Talks With US

Cuba confirmed on April 20 that it recently held direct talks with U.S. officials in Havana, marking a rare diplomatic engagement as tensions persist over Washington’s long-standing economic restrictions on the communist nation.

Alejandro Garcia del Toro, deputy director general for U.S. affairs at Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in remarks published on April 20 by Cuban Communist Party newspaper Granma that discussions were underway.

“This is a delicate matter which, as we have already said, we are handling discreetly,” Garcia del Toro said.

He confirmed that “a meeting between Cuban and U.S. delegations recently took place here in Cuba,” adding that U.S. participants included undersecretaries of state, while Cuba’s delegation was led at the deputy minister level.

“During the meeting, neither party set deadlines or made coercive statements, as reported by the US press. All information exchange was conducted with respect and professionalism,” he said.

As Evgenia Filimianova reports for The Epoch Times, Cuba framed the discussions as heavily focused on easing U.S. economic pressure, particularly restrictions affecting energy supplies.

“Eliminating the energy blockade against the country was a matter of top priority for our delegation,” Garcia del Toro said.

He described the policy as “an unjustified punishment for the entire Cuban population” and called it “a form of global blackmail against sovereign states.”

The dispute reflects broader economic strains on the island, where rolling blackouts and fuel shortages have intensified public hardship in recent months.

Cuba’s energy crisis has become a central issue in its relations with Washington, as the government seeks relief from sanctions that limit access to fuel imports. A main supplier, Venezuela, has curtailed oil shipments to Cuba since the United States captured dictator Nicolás Maduro in January.

The talks come as the Trump administration has increased pressure on Cuba, both rhetorically and through policy measures.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during an April 8 briefing that the Cuban government is in a weakened state.

Clarifying Trump’s recent remark that “Cuba is next,” she told reporters that he meant “the Cuban regime is bound to fall.”

“The country is very weak. They’re in a very weak position economically, obviously, and financially,” Leavitt said on April 8.

The administration has framed its approach as economic and diplomatic pressure rather than military action. Speaking on March 27 in Miami, Trump said his strategy of “peace through strength” relies on a “great military” combined with economic leverage and negotiation.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated a hardline stance on Cuba’s political system during remarks to reporters on March 27.

“The only thing worse than a communist is an incompetent communist,” Rubio said, arguing that Cuba’s system “has to change” for the country to achieve economic development.

He added that Cuba’s economic model is “a nonsensical system,” and said the Cuban people are suffering due to leadership decisions and lack of reform.

U.S.–Cuba relations have been strained for decades, dating back to the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro, which overthrew the U.S.-backed government of Fulgencio Batista.

The situation in Cuba has drawn attention from other global leaders. In a joint statement on April 18, the governments of Mexico, Spain, and Brazil expressed “deep concern regarding the serious humanitarian crisis the Cuban people face” and called for measures to alleviate suffering while respecting international law.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on April 20 that he sees no justification for U.S. intervention in Cuba, stating the country poses no “discernible threat” to others.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 19:40

Democratic Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick Resigns Ahead of Ethics Committee Sanctions Hearing

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) resigned from Congress on Tuesday, stepping down hours before the House Ethics Committee was set to recommend a punishment for the 25 violations of campaign finance law and House rules it found her guilty of last month.

The third-term Florida Democrat announced her resignation in a written statement, calling the ethics process a “witch hunt” and saying the committee had denied her new attorney’s request for time to prepare a defense while a federal criminal case against her remains pending.

“I will not stand by and pretend that this has been anything other than a witch hunt,” Cherfilus-McCormick said.

“I simply cannot stand by and allow my due process rights to be trampled on, and my good name to be tarnished.”

“I hereby resign from the 119th Congress, effective immediately,” she said.

In a brief hearing Tuesday afternoon, Ethics Committee Chairman Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.) confirmed the panel had lost jurisdiction following the resignation and would not recommend a sanction.

He read the resignation letter to the committee into the record, in which Cherfilus-McCormick called it “the honor of my lifetime to serve the people of my district.”

“After careful reflection and prayer, I have concluded that it is in my best interest and the interest of my constituents and the institution that I set aside at this time,” she wrote, making her resignation effective at 1:30 p.m. Tuesday.

Guest defended the 2 1/2-year investigation against what he called claims it had been “a rush to judgment.”

“This was a very deliberate process to gather information into allegations that were extremely serious and extremely complicated,” he said, noting the committee interviewed multiple witnesses over two years and reviewed tens of thousands of subpoenaed documents.

He said Cherfilus-McCormick had been given “multiple ample opportunities to present exculpatory evidence” and to comply with the committee’s subpoena.

Ranking Member Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.) echoed the chairman’s remarks.

“Nobody’s happy. I don’t think any of us are happy at what we’ve gone through,” he said.

“But I am extremely proud of being associated with all of you, and I’m grateful for the hard work and the diligence of the staff.”

Ethics Investigation

Cherfilus-McCormick’s resignation ends a two-year ethics investigation before the committee could formally recommend a sanction. The panel had been scheduled to meet at 2 p.m. Tuesday to decide whether to recommend expulsion, censure, reprimand, a fine, or other penalties.

Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) had said he would file a motion on the House floor to expel Cherfilus-McCormick once the committee issued its recommendation. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters last week that “the facts are indisputable at this point” and predicted the full chamber would have moved to expel her.

Expelling a member requires a two-thirds vote of members present, meaning Republicans would have needed roughly 70 Democrats to join them, assuming full attendance. Only six House members have been expelled in U.S. history: three for disloyalty during the Civil War, two after criminal convictions, and former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in 2023.

The third-term Florida Democrat was accused of routing more than $3.6 million from Trinity Health Care Services, her family’s company, into her 2022 special election campaign through family members, allied political action committees, and shell entities. Investigators have said much of that money stemmed from a roughly $5 million overpayment Florida mistakenly sent Trinity for COVID-19 vaccination work in 2021.

The committee’s adjudicatory subcommittee announced on March 27 that it had found 25 of 27 counts against her proven by clear and convincing evidence. The counts include accepting improper campaign contributions, filing false reports with the Federal Election Commission, failing to file required House financial disclosure reports on time, and providing special favors in connection with Community Project Funding requests.

In a memorandum filed ahead of Tuesday’s hearing, committee counsel wrote that the 25 violations were “very serious standing on their own,” citing the scope and continuous nature of her conduct and her refusal to accept responsibility as aggravating factors.

Counsel compared her case to Santos, who was expelled following a committee report detailing hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign finance violations. Cherfilus-McCormick’s case, counsel wrote, stands apart because the funds involved total in the millions.

During a hearing last month, Cherfilus-McCormick declined to testify, citing her Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. Her federal trial is currently scheduled for February 2027.

Her attorney, William Barzee, has argued the committee should have held a full evidentiary trial at which he could have called witnesses and presented evidence.

Ahead of Tuesday’s hearing, Cherfilus-McCormick submitted letters of support from faith leaders, union officials, and community organizations in Florida’s 20th Congressional District.

The Palm Beach County Democratic Black Caucus and the nonprofit Women of Veteran Affairs both urged the committee to reject expulsion, arguing it would leave hundreds of thousands of Floridians without representation during an upcoming redistricting fight in the state.

“Our district is currently navigating a high-stakes redistricting period, during which continued representation is essential,” the Palm Beach group wrote.

“The loss of a sitting Member would weaken the district’s ability to advocate for itself and protect its interests when those interests are most vulnerable.”

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis had called a special session in Florida for late April to redraw maps in the Republican-dominated legislature.

Before Tuesday, a small number of Democrats had publicly called on her to resign, including Reps. Jim Himes of Connecticut, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Becca Balint of Vermont.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 18:25

A Reckoning Is Underway At The FDA

Authored by Maryanne Demasi via The Brownstone Institute,

For months, a quiet battle has been unfolding inside the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

It began with an analysis of child deaths after Covid vaccination, followed by strategic leaks to major media outlets, and has now erupted into the open with a memo from the regulator’s own vaccine chief.

In September, it was reported that FDA officials had privately investigated 25 paediatric deaths following Covid vaccination — the first systematic review of such cases since the rollout began.

The findings were meant to be presented to the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). But the presentation never came. The meeting passed without a word. Something had happened behind closed doors.

Now we know what.

On 13 November 2025, STAT published an extraordinary insider account describing a tense internal meeting in which FDA scientist Dr Tracy Beth Høeg presented evidence of young people who had died after Covid vaccination.

According to STAT, her findings triggered pushback from career FDA regulators who feared the implications of acknowledging fatal cases.

Now, comes the explosive memo from FDA vaccine chief Dr Vinay Prasad, confirming — for the first time — that US regulators have formally attributed at least 10 of these children’s deaths to Covid vaccination.

Prasad called it “a profound revelation” with far-reaching implications for American vaccine policy, adding that the true number is “certainly an underestimate.”

Here, I’ll take you through the memo, the leaks, the internal rebellion at FDA, and what this means — not just for Covid vaccines, but for all vaccine approvals going forward.

This story marks a turning point in US vaccine regulation.

The Story That Divided the Regulator

In early September, insiders at the FDA and CDC quietly told the New York Times and the Washington Post that the agency had begun investigating child deaths reported to VAERS.

My reporting confirmed that Dr Tracy Beth Høeg, a senior adviser within the FDA’s vaccine division, had led the review — contacting families, gathering medical records, and obtaining autopsy findings.

click image for story

It was the first case-by-case evaluation of paediatric deaths conducted since the vaccines were authorised.

The review identified twenty-five children whose deaths occurred following vaccination. Those findings were expected to be presented to ACIP on 18–19 September. Instead, without explanation, the discussion disappeared from the agenda.

Even FDA Commissioner Dr Marty Makary had hinted at the findings on CNN, saying, “We’ve been looking into the VAERS database self-reports, [and] there have been children that have died from the Covid vaccine.”

He described an “intense” investigation involving doctors, autopsies, and family interviews. Yet ACIP heard nothing.

Had the FDA reversed course — or had internal forces blocked disclosure?

STAT’s reporting offered the first real clues.

Inside the FDA: The Meeting That Changed Everything

STAT described a confidential gathering of FDA vaccine scientists in which Høeg presented slides listing roughly two dozen deaths of young people following vaccination.

One slide reportedly read: “Timing fits. Diagnosis fits. No better explanation found. Sufficient information provided.”

According to STAT, some career regulators reacted with “quiet horror” — not at the deaths themselves, but at the policy implications of acknowledging them.

The article portrayed Høeg as pushing to bring the findings to ACIP and to amend vaccine labels for younger males, while longtime staff resisted, describing the evidence as “thin” and worrying about restricting vaccine access.

STAT reported that “no career regulator would stand by the decision,” and Høeg backed away from presenting the cases to ACIP.

It was a rare glimpse of a regulator divided against itself: career staff trying to contain the findings, and FDA leadership apparently trying to surface them.

Nothing more was said publicly — until Prasad’s memo detonated inside the agency.

Prasad’s Explosive Memo

The memo from Dr Vinay Prasad, Director of the FDA’s Centre for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), is unlike anything ever issued by a senior US vaccine regulator.

Addressed to all CBER staff, it confirmed what STAT only implied: FDA scientists had determined that “at least 10 children have died after and because of receiving Covid-19 vaccination.”

Prasad wrote that the true number is “certainly an underestimate” and that “the real number is higher.”

He wrote that “deaths were reported between 2021 and 2024, and ignored for years,” calling it a systemic failure that “requires humility and introspection.”

“It is horrifying to consider that the US vaccine regulation, including our actions, may have harmed more children than we saved,” he wrote.

Prasad defended Høeg’s analysis, saying “Dr Hoeg was correct in her assessment,” and that disagreements reflected subjective coding — not differing facts.

He also noted that healthy children at extremely low risk from Covid had been “coerced” into vaccination under Biden-era mandates, some of which he said “were harmful.”

He added that it was “difficult to read cases where kids aged 7 to 16 may be dead as a result of covid vaccines.”

Prasad also challenged one of the most repeated claims in pandemic messaging — that Covid infection causes more myocarditis than vaccination.

He argued that these comparisons rely on faulty denominators, because they count only people sick enough to seek hospital care while ignoring the far larger number of infections that never present to clinics.

He underscored that vaccination does not prevent eventual infection, so the comparison cannot be framed as “virus versus vaccine.”

A vaccinated child still encounters the virus over their lifetime — but now carries the additional myocarditis risk from the vaccine itself.

The Leaks

Prasad’s memo contained another revelation — confirmation of internal sabotage inside the FDA.

He wrote that “slides she presented, emails she sent, and distorted firsthand reports” from Høeg’s meeting had been leaked to media outlets by staff who believed they were acting appropriately.

He condemned the behaviour as “unethical, illegal, and…factually incorrect,” a blunt repudiation of how the STAT narrative had framed events.

In Prasad’s telling, Høeg had not exaggerated the evidence at all. She had uncovered what the FDA had failed to recognise for nearly three years — that Covid vaccines had killed children.

Far from being the rogue figure depicted in selective leaks, she was doing precisely what the public assumes a regulator does: investigating deaths, contacting families, gathering records, and treating each case as a potential signal that demands scrutiny.

For Prasad, the leaks weren’t merely improper — they betrayed the core obligation of a scientific agency.

He said internal debates must remain inside the FDA until ready for public release, and that he would not “endorse selective reporting of our meetings and documents.” Anyone unwilling to follow that principle, he said, should resign.

It was an extraordinary directive — and a clear sign that the internal battle over whether to acknowledge children’s deaths had reached a breaking point.

A Reaction from Inside ACIP

When the memo surfaced, ACIP vice-chair Dr Robert Malone issued his own statement.

He wrote that he had been aware of the review through ACIP’s internal working group, and that the child deaths “have been known since this summer but not released to the public due to the need to validate the initial findings independently.”

Bound by confidentiality, he could only say, “I have seen the data and findings, and they are even more stunning than this strongly worded letter indicates.”

He said he was “stunned, gobsmacked,” adding: “The significance and importance of this letter in the context of US and global vaccine policy cannot be overestimated. This is a revolution, the likes of which I never expected to see in my lifetime.”

Malone then took aim at the Covid-19 mRNA products: “These products do not work. They do not prevent disease and death. And as Secretary Kennedy testified in the Senate, objective analysis cannot even demonstrate that, on balance, they saved lives.”

MIT professor Retsef Levi — who leads ACIP’s Covid-19 Vaccines Workgroup — issued a similarly forceful response.

He wrote, “the acknowledgement that at least 10 children died from COVID vaccination must be followed with disclosure to the parents,” and said regulators and media “have gaslighted the vaccine injured, including the parents who lost their precious child.”

He described disclosure as “a moral imperative” and essential for any hope of trustworthy vaccine programs.

Inside ACIP, the memo is being understood not only as a scientific shift — but an ethical reckoning.

Critics Rise Up

Predictably, the memo triggered pushback from establishment figures who have spent years defending the Covid vaccines from scrutiny.

Dr Paul Offit — a long-time industry-aligned vaccine promoter and a familiar voice deployed whenever safety concerns arise — dismissed the memo as “science by press-release.”

He argued that the memo lacked context and should not be treated as evidence, calling the memo “irresponsible” and “dangerous.”

But Prasad’s communication was never presented as a scientific publication. It was an internal memo to staff. Offit’s attempt to judge it by academic-paper standards is a tactic to avoid addressing what the memo actually says — that children died and regulators overlooked it.

Former CBER director Dr Peter Marks — whose tenure is explicitly criticised in the memo for failing to identify child deaths for years — said he was “taken aback by the clearly political tone of the communication.”

But Prasad’s memo details precisely why Marks’s era is under scrutiny, including his 2021 decision to push out senior FDA officials Marion Gruber and Philip Krause after they objected to the Biden administration’s rush toward booster approval.

If anything was political, it was that episode.

For years, figures like Offit and Marks insisted that VAERS was a robust early-warning system — and that anyone citing it without follow-up investigation “didn’t understand pharmacovigilance.”

Now that FDA investigators have actually done the follow-up — contacting families, obtaining medical records, and reviewing autopsies — these same voices suddenly claim VAERS can’t establish causality at all.

This is the core hypocrisy. You cannot praise VAERS as the backbone of vaccine safety, then declare its signals meaningless once they are properly investigated.

Critics also warned that stricter evidence requirements — such as randomised trials and rejection of surrogate endpoints — would “slow innovation” or “harm vaccine confidence.”

But vaccine confidence is already shattered. Fewer than 10% of American healthcare workers took last season’s Covid booster.

Trust collapsed not because regulators asked too many questions — but because they asked too few, dismissed safety concerns that later proved real, and insisted on messaging long after the data had shifted.

The problem for these critics is not that children have died after vaccination. The problem is that the regulators have finally acknowledged it.

The Future of Vaccine Regulation in the United States

Prasad’s memo goes far beyond confirming child deaths. It announces a structural overhaul of vaccine oversight.

He wrote that future vaccine approvals would require randomised trials for most new products; that immunogenicity studies would no longer be accepted as proof of effectiveness in new populations; and that vaccines for pregnant women would not be authorised on unproven surrogate markers.

He committed to rewriting the US influenza vaccine framework and overhauling assessments of concomitant vaccination.

Most strikingly, he declared that vaccines would be treated as “no better or worse” than any other medical product — ending decades of special regulatory leniency.

“Never again,” he wrote, “will the US FDA commissioner have to himself find deaths in children for staff to identify it.”

A Global Shift Begins

The ACIP meeting on 4–5 December will be the first held under these new realities — with the knowledge that the FDA has attributed paediatric deaths to Covid vaccination, that senior leadership has repudiated the previous regulatory approach, and that a revolution in evidentiary standards is underway.

Because many international regulators track the FDA, the acknowledgment that children died from the Covid-19 vaccine — and that the agency failed to detect it — marks a seismic moment in global vaccine policy.

For bereaved families, the acknowledgment is devastating but necessary. For the public, it signals that the institutional silence of the pandemic era is beginning to fracture.

The reckoning has begun.

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 17:40

Whistleblower Says CIA Hid 2020 Election Threats To Help Biden

For years, Democrats and the mainstream media treated 2020 as settled history: the system worked, the election was secure, and accusations of fraud were conspiracy theories.

However, a newly declassified intelligence memo, paired with fresh whistleblower allegations, points in a less convenient direction. 

Behind the scenes, U.S. intelligence warned well before the 2020 election that core election systems were more exposed than the public was told, especially the vast digital repositories that hold voter registration data. Making matters worse, according to former senior cyber official Christopher Porter, intelligence leaders then kept those warnings from public view because airing them could have benefited President Donald Trump and complicated the push to portray Joe Biden’s eventual victory as unquestionable.

On January 15, 2020, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) produced an assessment warning that foreign adversaries could compromise U.S. election infrastructure in the coming presidential election, which has just been declassified. The memo specifically called out Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and other non-state actors. Analysts did not claim they had evidence of a specific plot to alter votes nationwide, but they did say the threat was real, technically plausible, and serious enough that senior intelligence officials personally briefed President Trump at the White House in February 2020. 

What worried analysts most was not some Hollywood-style rewrite of every ballot cast in America. “We assess that centralized election-related data repositories, such as voter registration databases, pollbooks, and official election websites, are most vulnerable to exploitation, and adversaries could use access to these systems to disrupt election processes,” the NIC assessment warned. 

Intelligence analysts believed vote tabulators and reporting systems had weaknesses, especially machines without paper backups. Despite this, they judged it would be hard for foreign adversaries to change the certified national outcome through direct machine compromise alone. That was never the same as saying the systems were secure in any ordinary sense. It meant large-scale outcome manipulation looked difficult, while localized disruption and perception management looked much easier. 

Despite the warnings of threats, after the election, senior officials pushed the opposite narrative, assuring Americans that 2020 had been a model of resilience.

In mid-November 2020, the Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council’s executive committee issued the now-famous statement declaring that “the November 3rd election was the most secure in American history.” Chris Krebs, then running the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), later testified that he approved the statement and regarded it as the consensus view of the election-security community. That tidy line proved politically useful. It also sat awkwardly beside an internal intelligence record showing that multiple foreign actors had the capacity to exploit the very systems officials were publicly celebrating.

Porter, who prepared the January 2020 memo in his role overseeing cyber intelligence, says the contradiction was not an accident. “What is shocking is how uncontroversial some of these findings are to professionals—it is no secret that China and Iran compromise election equipment for a variety of intelligence purposes, nor was it controversial at the time that these systems had technical vulnerabilities,” he said. He goes further, alleging that bureaucratic and political considerations shaped what the public was allowed to know. “Every agency concurred on these findings, but because it was seen as potentially aiding the President’s reelection campaign, there was an active effort to damage him politically by refusing to share the declassified report with the public.”

Another way to put it was that the truth would have undermined faith in Joe Biden’s eventual victory. That is the heart of the whistleblower claim. 

According to Porter, Trump personally ordered the information declassified because he believed election integrity demanded it. But Porter said that CIA leadership refused to release it.

“The President of the United States personally ordered this information declassified and shared with the public because he thought election integrity was so important to our country. Despite this, CIA leaders at the time refused to release the declassified report,” he said. He also alleges the resistance did not end there. “Years later, when he was reelected, CIA went so far as to claim that the report had never been declassified. Even the record of its declassification had been removed from the system,” he said. Porter describes that as an extraordinary breach of normal intelligence practice, adding, “It is important for people to recognize that this is not normal behavior by the Intelligence Community—most officers would never do something like this.”

 Intelligence reports later concluded that China gained access to voter registration databases in multiple states before the election. A confidential FBI counterintelligence source also reported in summer 2020 that Beijing was attempting to interfere to aid Biden, including through a scheme involving fake U.S. driver’s licenses shipped into the country. Those reports did not become part of the public understanding in real time. Iranian hackers were not indicted until November 2021. Chinese penetration of voter data emerged publicly only after documents surfaced in March 2026. By then, the “most secure in history” line had already hardened into civic catechism.

The intelligence community’s inspector general, Christopher Fox, has opened a full investigation into whether Porter’s warnings were buried and whether he faced retaliation for pressing agencies to follow Trump’s declassification order. That review arrives alongside earlier findings from the intelligence community’s analytic ombudsman, who concluded in January 2021 that some analysts downplayed China’s role because of their disdain for Trump and reluctance to bolster his China policy.

None of this proves that foreign actors changed the 2020 outcome through hacked machines. But it tells us that senior officials knew election systems had meaningful vulnerabilities, but went out of their way to sell to the public a more politically convenient story.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/21/2026 - 17:20