How Trump Crushed The Left's Media Machine

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

Donald Trump is the master of memes — and of the media. No modern political figure understands better how to energize the long-humiliated conservative-patriotic soul that has been crushed for decades by a left-liberal media zeitgeist. His Gaza performance is the latest chapter in the ongoing media revolution of our time.

Peace in Gaza. The guns have fallen silent between Israel Defense Forces and Hamas. What was unthinkable for decades has happened: a historic breakthrough. Hostage and POW exchanges — all brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The achievement alone commands extraordinary respect. But with Trump now mediating in Armenia-Azerbaijan, between Israel and Iran, and pressing ahead with unfinished work in Ukraine, a Nobel Peace Prize would seem almost inevitable.

And Trump, ever the media virtuoso, translated this geopolitical power move into the perfect, iconic imagery.

Trump Plays the Media Like a Grand Piano

Whether delivering his address in the Knesset or receiving European leaders and global political elites, the spectacle was unmistakable: a parade of dignitaries bowing before the American president — a display directed not just at European audiences but at the power brokers of the Arab world as well.

The scene recalled the now-famous White House moment during the Ukraine debate: Ursula von der Leyen, Friedrich Merz, Keir Starmer, and Emmanuel Macron lined up like schoolboys at the teacher’s desk, listening to the president.

The moment culminated in Trump’s demonstrative handshake with Macron — a symbol of Europe’s complete submission to Washington’s dominant player.

Total Dominance

The world witnessed it in real time: Trump controls the iconography of power like no one else. He projects himself as the new ordering force in the Middle East, backed by allies like Saudi Arabia, now tied to Washington through billions in investment. Traveling aboard Air Force One between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Sharm el-Sheikh, he turned diplomacy into a livestream event.

Europe, once the colonial power in the region, was reduced to a spectator role. Even the congratulatory statements from European heads of state looked awkward against Trump’s monologue. His media strategy leaves no room for co-stars. This is a one-man show. And Trump plays the lead.

A Masterclass in Iconography

The list of Trump’s choreographed power moves is long. Remember the handshake with von der Leyen sealing the U.S.-EU trade deal? It was all about the image.

He hosted his European counterparts at his private golf resort in Scotland, flying them in via his personal helicopter — no military escort. Everything followed a scripted, perfectly timed playbook. The message: America is back on top.

Europe, dimmed to its real geopolitical size, played second fiddle. The era of European globalism sneaking through the American back door — via forums like World Economic Forum — is over. So is the age of U.S. presidents pushing the European climate agenda, from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama to Joe Biden. Trump is burying the CO₂ climate cult in America once and for all.

The Second Declaration of Independence

Repeatedly, the same image played out: in the Oval Office, Trump signs executive order after executive order, driving his cabinet to implement a deregulation blitz — a second Declaration of Independence from the Old Continent.

Another media bombshell followed on April 2: in the Rose Garden, Trump declared a global tariff war. Through a few bold, poster-sized charts, he ended an era: the era of free riding on the dollar system was over.

Two days after the last London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) contract expired, the pricing of dollar credit returned to Washington’s control via the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR).

Beyond Symbolism

Most Europeans still don’t grasp the signal: the U.S. will no longer let itself be hitched to Europe’s geopolitical cart — certainly not to die on European battlefields again. Not in a war with Russia that isn’t in America’s strategic interest.

The Trump-Putin media plot in Alaska made that message unmistakable.

Trump’s power lies in his ability to dominate narratives, shape symbolic language, and project an unapologetic American patriotism. Europe’s reaction is defensive: through Digital Services Act, Digital Markets Act, planned chat controls and digital IDs, Brussels tries to claw back control of the narrative by brute bureaucratic force. But against Washington’s renewed self-confidence and civic model, the Eurocrats look like yesterday’s men.

The Butler Moment

The turning point came in Butler, Pennsylvania: after the assassination attempt, Trump, bloodied and defiant, raised his fist and shouted “Fight! Fight! Fight!” in front of the American flag. That image burned itself into the national psyche. It was a declaration of war against cultural Marxism — the ideological core of Europe’s eco-socialist movement.

Trump had cracked the media code long before that. From flipping burgers at McDonald's to posing as a garbage truck driver — it wasn’t cheap campaign theater. It was strategic authenticity, in stark contrast to the aloof eco-socialist bureaucrats.

The result: attention shifted to him, away from choreographed smear campaigns and the concealed frailty of Biden. Trump didn’t fake being “the people.” He embodied it — and weaponized authenticity into power.

Dismantling the Machine

After his election, Trump moved fast to dismantle the left’s media machine. The breakup of United States Agency for International Development was a key moment. State-aligned broadcasters folded, funding pipelines to statist media, green ideology, and eco-socialist activism dried up.

Trump struck a chord with the times. He transformed media dominance and narrative instinct into electoral power. His biggest coup? Killing the CO₂ myth. In Trump’s America, CO₂ is no longer the demon gas upon which an eco-socialist nightmare could be built.

The question now is: How long before this media collapse of the Left reaches Europe? When it does, the rising conservative forces in Eastern Europe — led by Viktor Orbán — may find their historic hour has come.

In politics, good governance alone is never enough. You must project it — with the right imagery, in tune with the zeitgeist.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 16:20

Wishful Thinking? MSM Speculates Trump To Announce Tomahawks For Ukraine Friday

The Financial Times as well as some pro-NATO military analysts say that we should expect President Trump to greenlight a limited number of long-range Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine. "The US president is expected to discuss potential deliveries and how Ukraine would use the weapon with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday," FT writes.

But it's all still up in the air (and Trump remains notoriously hard to predict), given Presidents Trump and Putin just had a "lengthy" and "positive and productive" phone call on Thursday, wherein the two lined up a series of high-level summits, including the expectation that Trump and Putin will have an eventual bilateral summit in Budapest to bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end - as Trump put it in a Truth Social post.

US Navy image

Among many troubling aspects to this is that the systems would likely require American contractors to operate. Typically Tomahawks are launched by sea or air, but Ukraine will have to be given a ground-launched version.

Mainstream media has of late also confirmed Trump had already authorized US intelligence to help the Ukrainians with targeting energy sites deep inside Russia.

Whatever is handed over, which is unlikely to surpass several dozens, would have to be carefully used against "strategic targets":

It is unclear how many Tomahawks the US would be willing to sell to Nato allies for Ukraine, especially since the Pentagon has been expending them at a higher rate than it has been buying them. "That’s what they’re probably arguing over right now within the Pentagon," said Jim Townsend, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defence.

The US has bought only 202 Tomahawks since 2022, but has used at least 124 against the Houthis and Iran since 2024. It is also possible the US would use Tomahawks in any strike on Venezuelan soil. “If we do give Tomahawks, it won’t be a huge batch, and that means that Zelenskyy will have to be very careful in terms of how he uses these,” Townsend said, adding they would only be used on the most strategic targets with the greatest chance of success.

Already anticipating this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has newly warned that Ukraine is plotting to use the long-range missiles to carry out "terrorist attacks" on Russia.

Zakharova said to reporters Wednesday that "the Kiev regime is not hiding its preparation of new terrorist attacks against our country aimed at escalating the conflict" - further underscoring that it was "obvious" these plans are being drawn up in anticipation of getting Tomahawks.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Alex Christoforou of The Duran podcast, commenting on the implications of Tomahawk transfers, offers the following perspective:

1. Further normalizes US/NATO direct attacks into Russia. In three years the US has accomplished what was seen as taboo for 80 years...it is acceptable for US to directly strike Russia. This is a precedent that will be leveraged in the future.

2. Further normalizes western boots on the ground in Ukraine. The US is making no secret of the fact that they will be in Ukraine operating the missiles. US/NATO boots on the ground are no longer off limits.

FT: The missiles could be delivered relatively quickly with the involvement of American contractors to assist in their use. This would eliminate the need for extensive training of Ukrainian troops and would allow the US to maintain control over targets and other issues.

Russia will likely respond "with irresponsible rhetoric that includes some nuclear saber-rattling," as well as "a few larger strikes" on Ukraine.

At the very least, this will inject a new level of unpredictability into a conflict which is already spiraling toward direct NATO-Russia nuclear-armed confrontation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 15:45

Regional Banks Crash As More Credit "Cockroaches" Emerge

Just when the market was starting to finally freak out - with a one month delay - about the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcy following yesterday's fingerpointing session between JPM's Jamie Dimon and various private credit firms in which both accused each other of harboring more credit "cockroaches", this morning the credit freak out went to 11 as two regional US banks crashed after they both disclosed problems with loans involving allegations of fraud (completely unrelated to Tricolor or First Brands), adding to concern that more cockroaches are indeed emerging in borrowers’ creditworthiness.

While those hits can be easily absorbed by the biggest US banks, the totals are more worrisome for regional lenders.

“If JPMorgan has a loan problem with Tricolor, it’s puny,” Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co., said in an interview.

“But if smaller banks have problems with these loans, it takes more of a hit.”

Shares of Zions Bancorp plunged 12% after it disclosed a $50 million charge-off for a loan underwritten by its wholly-owned subsidiary, California Bank & Trust, in San Diego.

Bloomberg reports that Zions said in a lawsuit that California Bank & Trust is owed the money from two investment funds tied to Andrew Stupin and Gerald Marcil, among other parties.

California Bank & Trust provided two revolving credit facilities to the borrowers in 2016 and 2017 totaling more than $60 million, to finance their purchase of distressed commercial mortgage loans, according to the lawsuit.

The terms gave the bank “first-priority, perfected security interest” in all collateral, including each mortgage loan purchased by the investment funds.

But after an investigation, the lender found that many of the notes and underlying properties were transferred to other entities.

And those properties have already been foreclosed on or were about to be, according to the lawsuit.

But it gets worse as Bloomberg points out that Western Alliance also lent money to the same investor group, for them to originate or buy mortgage loans, according to the bank’s lawsuit in August. The outstanding balance of that loan is $98.6 million.

Western Alliance found that the collateral was supposed to be backed by a first-priority lien, but that wasn’t the case.

It alleged that the borrower created fake title policies by omitting the senior liens.

At the same time, the borrower drained funds from accounts that acted as additional collateral, according to the lawsuit.

As of Aug. 18, the borrower held a little over $1,000 in their bank account at Western Alliance, while the required monthly average was $2 million, according to the lawsuit.

If that wasn't enough, Western Alliance also said it also has exposure to the collapse of auto-parts supplier First Brands Group.

But, and clearly nobody believed this, it doesn’t expect the issue to change its 2025 outlook. Yeah right... 

Shares tumbled as much as 11% after the admission...

It will be ironic if WAL barely survived the 2023 banking crisis only to be destroyed because it failed to do due diligence on its clients a few years later.

“There have been a number of ‘one-off’ credit events that a number of banks have previewed going into the quarter,” Terry McEvoy, an analyst at Stephens Inc., said in an interview.

“They have not gone unnoticed by bank investors.”

The news slammed the broader regional index. 

As Bloomberg notes, even if each of the credit event are isolated, banks taking losses from bad loans are making headlines more often in the past two months. After the bankruptcy of sub-prime auto lender Tricolor Holdings last month, JPMorgan wrote down $170 million and Fifth Third Bancorp wrote down as much as $200 million. 

Meanwhile, the investment bank at the center of the entire First Brands saga, Jefferies, continues to get crushed, and at last check was down over 10%.

 

*  *  * NICE AND EASY

Astaxanthin // Peak Focus // Mushroom 10x

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 15:35

Sixth Circuit Rules In Favor Of School Ban On "Let's Go Brandon" Sweatshirts

Authored by Joanthan Turley,

We previously discussed the case of B.A. v. Tri County Area Schools, where two middle schoolers in Michigan were prevented from wearing “Let’s Go Brandon” sweatshirts. However, a divided panel on the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit has ruled that the school district was within its authority to ban the sweatshirts.  The decision, in my view, is wrong, and this could prove a viable case for Supreme Court review, assuming that the plaintiffs will not seek an en banc review.

“Let’s Go Brandon!” has become a similarly unintended political battle cry not just against Biden but also against the bias of the media. It derives from an Oct. 2 interview with race-car driver Brandon Brown after he won his first NASCAR Xfinity Series race. During the interview, NBC reporter Kelli Stavast’s questions were drowned out by loud and clear chants of “F*** Joe Biden.” Stavast quickly and inexplicably declared, “You can hear the chants from the crowd, ‘Let’s go, Brandon!’”

“Let’s Go Brandon!” instantly became a type of “Yankee Doodling” of the political and media establishment.

In this case, an assistant principal (Andrew Buikema) and a teacher (Wendy Bradford) “ordered the boys to remove the sweatshirts” for allegedly breaking the school dress code. However, other students were allowed to don political apparel with other political causes, including “gay-pride-themed hoodies.”

The district dress code states the following:

“Students and parents have the right to determine a student’s dress, except when the school administration determines a student’s dress is in conflict with state policy, is a danger to the students’ health and safety, is obscene, is disruptive to the teaching and/or learning environment by calling undue attention to oneself. The dress code may be enforced by any staff member.”

The district reserves the right to bar any clothing “with messages or illustrations that are lewd, indecent, vulgar, or profane, or that advertise any product or service not permitted by law to minors.”

The funny thing about this action is that the slogan is not profane.

To the contrary, it substitutes non-profane words for profane words. Nevertheless, “D.A.” was stopped in the hall by Buikema and told that his “Let’s Go Brandon” sweatshirt was equivalent to “the f–word.”

Sixth Circuit Judge John Nalbandian was joined by Judge Karen Nelson Moore in holding that, under the “vulgarity exception,” the action was constitutional:

“The Constitution doesn’t hamstring school administrators when they are trying to limit profanity and vulgarity in the classroom during school hours. Again, students do not “shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate.” But neither are school administrators powerless to prevent student speech that the administrators reasonably understand to be profane or vulgar. And so “the First Amendment gives a … student the classroom right to wear Tinker’s armband, but not Cohen’s jacket.” Schools are charged with teaching students the “fundamental values necessary to the maintenance of a democratic political system.” And avoiding “vulgar and offensive terms in public discourse” is one such value. After all, “[e]ven the most heated political discourse in a democratic society requires consideration for the personal sensibilities of the other participants and audiences.” …

[A] euphemism is not the same as the explicitly vulgar or profane word it replaces. “Heck” is not literally the same word as “Hell.” But the word’s communicative content is the same even if the speaker takes some steps to obscure the offensive word. The plaintiffs concede that a school could prohibit students from saying “Fuck Joe Biden” because “[k]ids can’t say ‘fuck’ at school.” And yet they insist that the euphemism “Let’s Go Brandon” is distinct—even though many people understand that slogan to mean “Fuck Joe Biden.” So it’s not clear that the school administrators acted unreasonably in determining that the euphemism still conveyed that vulgar message.

After all, Fraser—the first case that recognized the vulgarity exception—involved a school assembly speech that had a rather elaborate sexual metaphor instead of explicitly vulgar or obscene words. And yet the Supreme Court had no reservation in holding that the school was not required to tolerate “lewd, indecent, or offensive speech and conduct.” And it was up to the school to determine “what manner of speech in the classroom or in school assembly is inappropriate.” Because “[t]he pervasive sexual innuendo in Fraser’s speech was plainly offensive to both teachers and students—indeed to any mature person,” the school could discipline his speech despite the absence of explicitly obscene or vulgar words. And so Fraser demonstrates that a school may regulate speech that conveys an obscene or vulgar message even when the words used are not themselves obscene or vulgar.”

In fairness to the majority, courts have been highly deferential to school officials in these areas, particularly in the Sixth Circuit. In Tinker v. Des Moines, the Supreme Court famously declared that students do not “shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate.” That may be true, but apparently, they can shed their sweatshirts in Michigan.

Judge John Bush offered a spirited dissent, stating:

“[T]he speech here—”Let’s Go Brandon!”—is neither vulgar nor profane on its face, and therefore does not fall into [the Fraser] exception. To the contrary, the phrase is purely political speech. It criticizes a political official—the type of expression that sits “at the core of what the First Amendment is designed to protect.” No doubt, its euphemistic meaning was offensive to some, particularly those who supported President Biden. But offensive political speech is allowed in school, so long as it does not cause disruption under Tinker. As explained below, Tinker is the standard our circuit applied to cases involving Confederate flag T-shirts and a hat depicting an AR-15 rifle—depictions arguably more offensive than “Let’s Go Brandon!” …

The majority says the sweatshirts’ slogan is crude. But neither the phrase itself nor any word in it has ever been bleeped on television, radio, or other media. Not one of the “seven words you can never say on television” appears in it . Instead, the phrase has been used to advance political arguments, primarily in opposition to President Biden’s policies and secondarily to complain about the way liberal-biased media treats conservatives. It serves as a coded critique—a sarcastic catchphrase meant to express frustration, resentment, and discontent with political opponents. The phrase has been used by members of Congress during debate. And even President Biden himself, attempting to deflect criticism, “agreed” with the phrase.

We cannot lose sight of a key fact: the students’ sweatshirts do not say “F*ck Joe Biden.” Instead, they bear a sanitized phrase made famous by sports reporter Kelli Stavast while interviewing NASCAR race winner Brandon Brown at the Talladega Superspeedway. The reporter said the crowd behind them was yelling “Let’s go, Brandon!” She did not report the vulgar phrase that was actually being chanted. The Majority even concedes Stavast may have used the sanitized phrase to “put a fig leaf over the chant’s vulgarity.” That is telling….”

Judge Bush is correct. The opinion constitutes a significant infringement on the free speech rights of students. I readily admit that I am critical of some past cases, including Morse v. Frederick, 551 U.S. 393 (2007), where the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the Juneau-Douglas High School could suspend student Joseph Frederick after he displayed a banner reading “BONG HiTS 4 JESUS” across the street from the school during the 2002 Winter Olympics torch relay. In my view, the courts have honored Tinker largely in the breach in such cases.

This case, however, involves a sweatshirt without a single vulgar term and a clear political message. It reflects a difference in the default position of both sides. The default in close cases for the majority is with the school’s authority to curtail speech, while the default of Judge Bush is with free speech. As Judge Bush noted:

“Because even offensive political speech demands First Amendment protection, it is inappropriate to delegate unfettered discretion to school officials to characterize the phrase “Let’s Go Brandon!” as vulgar and then regulate it outside the bounds of Tinker. The majority essentially gives school administrators boundless discretion—akin to “I know it when I see it,” Jacobellis v. Ohio, 378 U.S. 184, 197 (1964) (Stewart, J., concurring)—to redefine facially non-vulgar speech as vulgarity in order to ban it.”

The plaintiffs should appeal this opinion. They have a strong dissent from Judge Bush and a strong free speech case to make either to the full court or the Supreme Court.

Here is the opinion: B.A. v. Tri County Area Schools

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 15:25

Foreign Espionage Arrests Up 50%: FBI

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

FBI Director Kash Patel said on Oct. 15 that the agency is cracking down on espionage by foreign adversaries, with an increase in arrests as high as 50 percent.

“We have gone after espionage activities against our main counterparts in China, Russia, and Iran,” he said at a press conference.

“In China alone, we’ve had over a 50 percent increase in espionage arrests alone, and prosecutions,” Patel said. “In Iran, we have had a 50 percent increase, again, in espionage cases. And in Russia, we had a 33 percent increase in espionage cases alone.”

State Department employee Ashley Tellis, arrested on Oct. 12, was accused of removing classified information and meeting with Chinese regime officials.

A former State Department employee, Michael Schena, was arrested in March and sentenced on Sept. 4 for conspiring to collect and transmit national defense information to Chinese authorities.

In August, two Chinese nationals were arrested and accused of smuggling sensitive AI chips, subject to export controls, to China.

In June, two Chinese nationals were arrested on charges of spying for Chinese intelligence operations.

In September, an Armenian national was charged with conspiring to export goods and information that would help with semiconductor manufacturing to Russia.

On Aug. 6, Taylor Adam Lee, an active duty soldier, was arrested on charges of attempted transmission of national defense information to a foreign adversary, Russia.

In March, two Iranian nationals were charged with conspiring to supply drones and launder money for the IRGC, a designated foreign terrorist organization.

Patel also said there have been 125 counterterrorism cases this year, compared to 100 last year. And he cited increased disruptions of cybercrime enterprises.

“This year, you already have 52 arrests. Fifty-two arrests of violent cyber criminals who are stealing from senior citizens, who are violating our children’s rights and freedoms, and who are violating everyday Americans,” he said.

U.S. law enforcement, cooperating with UK law enforcement, announced the seizure of $15 billion in bitcoin from a Cambodian cyberscam ring on Oct. 14. This represents the largest-ever digital currency seizure by U.S. law enforcement.

Chen Zhi and his Prince Group conglomerate allegedly engaged in a massive wire fraud and money laundering conspiracy via at least 10 slave labor scam compounds across Cambodia.

The scam ring also used networks around the world, according to the Justice Department, and one such branch in Brooklyn was responsible for laundering millions of dollars taken from more than 250 victims in the United States.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 14:45

WTF Is Going On...

The markets are a little wild today and there is no specific item driving it from what we can see.

Here are a few that we are hearing

• 16th day of the shutdown and no signs of a break (chatter that it may last til Thanksgiving)

• Geopolitical risk rising: Lengthy Putin call, China-US trade tensions escalating, India ignoring Trump demand to stop buying Russian oil

• Hawkish FedSpeak - Waller sounded less dovish than normal

• Huge OpEx - The notional open interest for this expiration is the largest recorded for any October.

• Regional bank angst - Zions and Western Alliance down big on loan losses.

• US funding market stress - surging SOFR rates signaling a liquidity shortage

WTF is going on...

Stocks are tanking...

Regional banks getting slammed...

Bonds are aggressively bid with 2Y yields are suddenly collapsing (10Y back below 4.00%)...

Gold is going vertical (up)...

And crypto is going vertical (down)...

If we had to guess, we would say this is mostly related to the funding stress finally being recognized by a broader set of market participants as it seems demand for 'good' collateral is on the rise (gold and short-dated bonds) and leveraged risky assets are dumped.

The most important indicator, as always, remains the SOFR rate: should the recent drift higher continue, the self-fulfilling cascade of a liquidity shortage will almost certainly be activated.

And today's SRF auction shows the stress continues to build...

In fact it's worsening...

Trade accordingly.

*  *  * And if that's not working out, try some lithium

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 14:40

15 Democratic Governors Announce Health Alliance To Counter RFK Jr.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Democratic governors of 14 states and the territory of Guam on Oct. 15 announced a new coalition they said will provide scientific information to counter Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The Governors Public Health Alliance is aiming to boost coordination between states on public health guidance, preparing for emergencies, and detecting health threats. It plans to issue recommendations to the public on vaccines and other health topics, as the governors say guidance from the federal government can no longer be trusted.  

“We can no longer rely on the information coming out of Washington, DC, but our states are coming together to unequivocally state that science still matters,” Washington state Gov. Bob Ferguson said in a statement.

“While Donald Trump and RFK Jr. turn their backs on public health, governors are stepping up to make sure our residents have the health care they need and deserve,” Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey added.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) criticized the development.

“Democrat-led states that imposed unscientific school closures, toddler mask mandates, and vaccine passports during the COVID era are the ones who destroyed public trust in public health. Now, the same governors who eroded that trust are trying to reinvent public health under the guise of ‘coordination,’” Andrew Nixon, the communications director for the department, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“The Trump Administration and Secretary Kennedy are rebuilding that trust by grounding every policy in rigorous evidence and Gold Standard Science—not the failed politics of the pandemic.”

Among other HHS divisions, Kennedy oversees the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. His moves, including the removal of all members of the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel over conflicts of interest, have drawn criticism from Democrats.

The panel, now comprising experts selected by Kennedy, has advised the CDC to change recommendations for vaccines for COVID-19 and measles. The CDC recently accepted the changes.

Some outside groups and coalitions have issued competing vaccination recommendations, including a western states alliance spearheaded by California. Multiple states have updated rules to let pharmacists prescribe vaccines not recommended by the CDC.

The governors’ coalition will build on those efforts by facilitating meetings with state officials, global health leaders, and other groups, according to GovAct, a nonprofit that describes itself as a nonpartisan initiative formed by governors. Other initiatives from the organization include the Reproductive Freedom Alliance, which is aimed at “protecting and expanding reproductive freedom,” including through expanded access to abortion.

All the governors that are part of the initiatives are Democrats, although GovAct’s advisory board features several former Republican governors, including former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot.

The governors in the public health alliance represent California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington state. Guam’s governor is also part of the group.

The alliance’s advisers include Dr. Mandy Cohen, who served as director of the CDC under President Joe Biden; Dr. Anne Zink, Alaska’s top medical officer from 2018 to 2024; and Dr. Raj Panjabi, a White House official during the Biden administration.

“With many health threats at our doorstep, collaboration and communication between governors is essential to protect the health of families and save lives,” Cohen, who has called on Kennedy to resign, said in a statement.

“This alliance creates the framework to support the national coordination needed to safeguard communities.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 14:10

13 Reasons Why Gold Has Outperformed Stocks Since 2000

Authored by Timothy Nash, Anthony Storer, Jim Hop, & Tom Rastin via RealClearMarkets.com,

The recent increase in gold prices in the United States and around the world has been driven by a confluence of economic, financial, and political factors. 

This environment, where gold has outperformed U.S. GDP and the four major U.S. stock markets, began in 2000 and has continued to date (see Exhibits 1, 2, 3). 

We outline 13 reasons why gold has outperformed most major investments and why it is likely to continue attracting individual and institutional investors. 

1. A haven during uncertain times.

Throughout history, people — from merchants to royalty — have held gold as a hedge against inflation, economic uncertainty, and war.  Having gold in your pocket allowed you to overcome political difficulties, especially when paper currencies collapsed.

2. Geopolitical disagreements.

Recent geopolitical uncertainty has been a major catalyst in the rise of global gold prices.  Instability in the Middle East, conflict in Ukraine, and the collapse of Hong Kong as a free state under the Sino-British Agreement have been constant sources of concern, driving up the price of gold. 

3. The Federal Reserve.

For more than half a century now, the price of gold has increased in part as a hedge against inflation and poor U.S. monetary policy. The U.S. dollar purchases 16.78% of what it did 50 years ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator.  Its purchasing power would be more than 100% if the dollar was still backed by gold.

4. Inflation and the U. S. Dollar.

For most of our history, the U.S. dollar was backed by gold and/or silver.  In the early 1900’s, it was believed 100 one-ounce gold coins should purchase an average-priced home.  In 1980, gold averaged roughly $615 an ounce, while the median home price in the United States was roughly $64,600.  According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median home price is $422,600, while gold traded at almost $4,203 an ounce on October 15th, according to Yahoo Finance.  In 1980, it took roughly 100 ounces of gold to buy a new home; the same is true today. Clearly, investment in gold has preserved and increased wealth. The same cannot be said about the U.S. dollar.

5. Central Banks.

Many Central Banks and governments are purchasing gold as a hedge against inflation and growing concern over the value of the U.S. dollar.  Consider the U.S. national debt, for instance, which has grown from just under $6 trillion in 2000 to almost $38 trillion today.

6. The national debt and its global emulation.

The U.S. national debt is more than $37.85 trillion and is 124.86% of GDP, dramatically higher than the 34.68% in 1980.  That is equivalent to $110,176 per citizen or $326,500 per taxpayer.  Notably, irresponsible government spending is not exclusive to the U. S., with many countries, such as Japan and China, having larger deficits per capita.

7. U.S. Political instability.

The annual U.S. federal budget deficit is running at roughly $1.9 trillion, with little chance of reduction given the lack of political cooperation. To reverse the trend of budget deficits, American voters must vote for both economic growth and financial stability.

8. The global public policy divide.

Conflicts over public policy, in areas such as trade and tax policy, food production regulation, and electric vehicle production have sparked much disagreement, helping to drive gold prices higher.

9. Philosophy and economic growth.

In recent decades, the United States and other countries whose economic wealth is largely based on free-market capitalism and the rule of law have experienced increased regulation, decreased entrepreneurship, and fewer profit opportunities. This has been negatively influencing economic growth and structures in the United States and the West, leading to increased investment in gold.

10. The stock market and U.S. GDP.

Gold has outperformed the four major U.S. stock indices from 2000 to the end of September 2025.  It has also outperformed silver and U.S. GDP in terms of economic growth and has dramatically outpaced inflation, proving once again that gold as a safe-haven investment continues to stand the test of time.

11. The true intention of BRICS.

Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and a growing number of smaller, less-friendly other countries have purchased large quantities of gold, aiming to replace the U.S. dollar’s status as the world reserve currency.  If the dollar is replaced, it will make international transactions more costly for U.S. producers and consumers, while rendering U. S. foreign policy less effective.

12. Technological advancements and the AI boom.

Gold use in technology increased from 2000 to peak usage in 2010. Moreover, as AI technology and power stations have advanced, demand for gold has recently surged again due to its superior conductivity and corrosion resistance. 

13. The supply of Gold continues to be outpaced by demand.

The global demand for gold in 2024 and so far in 2025 has reached new record highs, while new supply from sources has been unable to keep pace.  This seems to indicate that unless one or more of the above factors are mitigated, the price of gold in the years to come will increase. 

Conclusion

On October 9th, the price of gold closed at just above $3,946 an ounce, down almost $100 for the day and the stock markets rose after the announcement of a settlement between Gaza and Israel.  However, the next day, major stock markets dropped by more than 800 points as China announced restrictive policies on rare-earth mineral sales to the United States, driving gold again above $4,000 an ounce. 

The only way to bring gold prices down is to adopt rational political and economic policies that enhance economic and political freedom across the United States and around the world.  Policies that will provide an opportunity for ALL citizens to live in a freer, more competitive and prosperous United States and world, where freedom and hard work dictate success, not politicians and regulations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 13:35

Trump: "Great Progress Made" Towards Peace In Putin Call, Gaza Deal Paves Way For Ukraine Truce

President Trump has just concluded his "lengthy" phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after which he declared on Truth Social that "great progress was made" towards peace in the Ukraine conflict.

He further called it "a very productive" conversation wherein Putin congratulated him on the "Great Accomplishment of Peace in the Middle East" - in reference to the Gaza peace deal.

Importantly, Trump then emphasized, "I actually believe that the Success in the Middle East will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the War with Russia/Ukraine."

Trump signaled there will be a high level meeting between US and Russian officials, and eventually another direct Trump-Putin summit, which he said would eventually happen in Budapest Hungary.

According to more from Trump's statement:

We also spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over.

At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week. The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people, to be designated. A meeting location is to be determined.

President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.

President Zelenskyy and I will be meeting tomorrow, in the Oval Office, where we will discuss my conversation with President Putin, and much more.

I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation.

But the reality is Trump is still unwilling to pressure Kiev on making territorial concessions (at least publicly, and as far as we know), and there also needs to be more robust guarantees of never joining NATO. All the while Trump is said to be mulling Tomahawk missiles. The full note...

As for the Kremlin side, it issued a much vaguer initial statement, also agreeing that it was a "positive and productive" phone call.

But at least the two sides are talking, but let's hope it actually leads somewhere - and fast - before Europe leads to West further up the escalation ladder toward WW3-style nuclear confrontation with Moscow.

Tcitizen Thu, 10/16/2025 - 13:20

Rare Earth Miner Stocks Slammed After U.S. Defense Department Cancels Cobalt Purchase

Rare earth and battery metal stocks are tumbling today after the U.S. Defense Department abruptly canceled a high-profile tender to buy cobalt - at least for now - cutting short a torrid rally that had lifted the sector over the past several months.

However, it looks as though the cancellation may only be temporary, which if true the market is certainly overlooking…

Cobalt producers and related mining stocks had surged as prices more than doubled since February, fueled by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo — which supplies about three-quarters of global output — and renewed optimism over Western efforts to secure critical minerals.

The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) had sought bids since mid-August for up to 7,500 tons of cobalt over five years — a contract worth as much as $500 million — as part of Washington’s broader effort to rebuild domestic supplies of critical minerals, according to Bloomberg. After repeatedly extending the bid deadline from Aug. 29 to Oct. 15, the agency has now scrapped the tender altogether.

“There are outstanding issues with the Statement of Work that need resolution before offers may be solicited,” a notice on a U.S. government website said Wednesday. “Upon resolution, solicitation will be re-issued with a new opening and closing date.”

The cancellation marks a setback for U.S. plans to reduce reliance on China for key inputs in electric vehicles, batteries, and defense systems. Cobalt is used in rechargeable batteries, magnets, munitions, and jet engines, and Beijing dominates global processing while maintaining a significant state stockpile.

Bloomberg writes that the now-abandoned tender followed a sharp rebound in cobalt prices, which have doubled since February after the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed export restrictions.

The DLA had been courting suppliers including units of Vale SA in Canada, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. in Japan, and Glencore Plc’s Nikkelverk plant in Norway, seeking fixed prices for alloy-grade cobalt over five years. The U.S. had planned to spend between $2 million and $500 million under the program.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 12:15

WTI Hovers Near 5 Month Lows After India Confusion, Record US Production

Oil prices are flat this morning (holding near five-month low) amid mixed signals on President Trump’s push to stop India’s purchases of Russian crude, his lengthy ongoing talks with President Putin, and a surprisingly large crude inventory build reported by API last night.

India’s oil refiners said they expect to reduce - not stop - the purchase of Russian crude, a move that could squeeze global supply, following remarks by Trump that the South Asian nation would halt all buying.

Bloomberg reports that Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd Managing Director Mundkur Shyamprasad Kamath told an analyst conference call Thursday that he was “confident” his company would continue buying Russian oil.

“We are not trying to slow down or anything,” he said when asked how he sees US push to stop Russian oil buying.

“For us it is business as usual, with respect to sourcing. We are sourcing those Russian barrels that is available today.”

India has flip-flopped between defying the US and crimping Russian imports in response to pressure from Washington to cut back.

The decisions India ultimately takes are vital for Moscow, which needs petrodollars to help fund its war in Ukraine.

Still, the market is awaiting clarification on the situation from the government in New Delhi, which didn’t officially confirm or deny Trump’s remarks.

Trump didn’t set out a timeline for India to wind down purchases of Russian oil, or give any indication of how Washington might enforce or scrutinize the shift, but said that the buying wouldn’t stop immediately.

The development took some air out of the earlier rally, with traders newly assured that the halt to India’s imports of Moscow’s crude won’t be immediate.

We will see shortly whether the official data confirms API's notable build.

API

• Crude +7.36mm 

• Cushing: -978k

• Gasoline: +3.0mm

• Distillate: -4.8mm

DOE

• Crude +3.524mm (+300k exp, +2.3mm whisper)

• Cushing: -703k

• Gasoline: -267k

• Distillate: +4.529mm - biggest draw since Jan

he official crude build of 3.52mm barrels was modest (and well below the huge 7.4mm barrel build reported by API). That is the 3rd weekly build in crude stocks in a row (and 3rd weekly draw in stocks at Cushing). Distillates inventories plunged by 4.53mm barrels - the biggest draw since January - perhaps affected by  the El Segundo refinery fire

Source: Bloomberg

Including the 760k barrel addition to the SPR, last week saw one of the largest weekly builds in total US crude inventories of the year...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production rose once again, to a new reocrd high at 13.636mm b/d...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is testing back near 5-month lows...

"Inventory builds have now eclipsed 2024 build pace by +220 (million barrels), with pressure pushing on the seaborne market. Nearly all regions are seemingly under selling pressure," Brian Leisen, global oil strategist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 12:07

Trump Says India Agreed To Stop Buying Oil From Russia

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced on Oct. 15 that India has pledged to stop purchasing oil from Russia within a short period, a decision that would help cut off funding for Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

“Within a short period of time, they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a press conference.

Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave him the assurance on Oct. 15.

“That’s a big stop,” Trump said. “Now [I’ve] got to get China to do the same thing.”

Trump has repeatedly accused India and China of buying Russian crude oil and funding Moscow’s aggression in Eastern Europe.

“We were not happy with him buying oil from Russia, because that lets Russia continue on with this ridiculous war,” Trump said of Modi.

On Aug. 6, Trump issued an executive order raising the tariff rate on Indian goods entering the United States to 50 percent.

Trump pointed to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil as justification for the significant increase in levies on the nation’s exports.

In recent years, India has become one of Russia’s most important trading partners, with annual bilateral trade rising to nearly $69 billion.

The rapid increase in trade has been fueled primarily by energy purchases.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, India’s annual crude oil imports from Russia hovered at about $1 billion. But since the war began, imports have skyrocketed, reaching $25.5 billion in 2022, $48.6 billion in 2023, and $52.7 billion in 2024, according to the U.N. Comtrade database.

Experts at the Observer Research Foundation think tank estimate that India accounts for more than one-third of Russia’s crude exports, behind China’s 50 percent share.

“Indian refiners have temporarily ramped up Russian crude imports, without any visible signs of concern emerging from the political leadership,” the foundation wrote in a report.

The United States has accused India of reselling Russian oil on the open market, allegedly further benefiting Russia.

“India’s subsequent reselling of this oil on the open market, often at significant profit, further enables the Russian Federation’s economy to fund its aggression,” Trump’s executive order reads.

In December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Modi signed a flurry of trade and arms deals. Putin and Modi also signed nine agreements related to trade, research, and climate action in July 2024.

According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, the U.S. goods trade deficit with India was almost $46 billion in 2024, representing a 5.9 percent increase from 2023.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 11:45

Government Shutdown Enters 16th Day: These Are The Regions Most & Least Impacted

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

As the federal government shutdown drags on, some states are feeling the pinch a lot more than others—and the nation’s capital is the most affected region.

An Oct. 15 report from WalletHub indicates that some 900,000 federal employees have been furloughed, while another 700,000 continue to work without pay. Essential services such as air traffic control and military operations are continuing.

The data shows that Washington, DC is experiencing the brunt of the stalemate, given that 25 percent of all jobs there are related to the federal government. The District is also home to the highest number of federal contract dollars per capita, which translates to an impasse on many ongoing projects.

In addition, the capital has the second-highest number of residents enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which is still operating, but runs the risk of losing all funding if the deadlock continues much longer.

Hawaii is listed as the second most affected state, also because of its large number of federal workers. About 5.6 percent of all jobs in Hawaii are federal positions.

Real estate comprises nearly 23 percent of Hawaii’s gross state product—the fourth-highest share in the United States.

The report indicates the shutdown could have an adverse effect on mortgage processing due to staff shortages at the IRS, Federal Housing Administration, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

In addition, Hawaii has some of the country’s largest numbers of national parks.

“The latest government shutdown makes life stressful for people across the U.S., but places like DC and Hawaii, where a high percentage of residents work directly for the government or have government contracts, are getting hit the hardest,” WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo noted in the report.

“States with a lot of residents who receive SNAP benefits, such as New Mexico, also could be in a dire situation if money for this vital program runs out before the gridlock ends.”

New Mexico is listed as the third state most affected by the government shutdown, as it receives more than $6,000 per capita in federal contracts, and a fifth of its population is enrolled in the SNAP Program.

“That means an extended shutdown could lead to a big chunk of the state’s residents struggling to afford food if the government no longer has any funds available for benefits,” the report states.

New Mexico also has the seventh-highest percentage of federal jobs and the fifth-most national parks per capita.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown is estimated to cost the U.S. economy close to $400 million per day.

Other states hurt the most by the shutdown include Alaska, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Arizona.

Meanwhile, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, and New Hampshire represent the top five states that are least affected by the shutdown.

As negotiations over spending limits, foreign aid, and healthcare subsidies continue, the government shutdown has lasted 15 full days and entered its 16th day on Oct. 16.

The longest U.S. government shutdown on record lasted 35 days, from December 2018 to January 2019.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 11:05

Did Goldman Just Spot 'Peak Reddit'?

A team of Goldman analysts led by Eric Sheridan published an earnings preview note that covered the digital advertising sub-sector. What caught our attention wasn't the changes in stock recommendations, but a section further down that cited SensorTower data on growth and engagement trends across major social media platforms. 

Building on our earlier report that "ChatGPT massively reduced Reddit citations," with SimilarWeb data showing steep declines in U.S. web traffic on Reddit, Sheridan expanded on this emerging theme, citing new SensorTower data that showed both monthly active users and time spent on Reddit have peaked. 

The decline and fall of social media pic.twitter.com/woMZkCDlsN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 16, 2025

SensorTower shows Reddit's monthly user time spent in the app or website worldwide and the U.S. steadily increased since the early days of Covid, but likely peaked earlier this year, as shown in the data below... 

Data from SensorTower indicates that user growth & total time spent in app remains somewhat stable in the U.S. while seeing stronger growth in international markets and overall continuing to surprise to the upside (albeit seeing a slight deceleration towards the end of Q3). We call out four platforms that are seeing particularly strong engagement trends in Q3: Instagram (total time spent up +17% YoY and +16% YoY globally & in the U.S., respectively), Pinterest (+14% YoY / +21% YoY), YouTube (+1% YoY /+5% YoY), and Facebook ((1)% YoY / +3% YoY).

Reddit's global monthly active users have also plateaued over the past year. In the U.S., monthly active users peaked in the summer of 2024 and have since declined as users lose interest, likely hooked instead on short-form video platforms such as TikTok, YouTube Shorts, and Instagram or Facebook Reels.

The platforms that have seen the largest monthly average user growth since Jan 2021 levels are Reddit, Pinterest, and Instagram in the U.S. and Reddit, Snapchat and Instagram globally, according to SensorTower. In Q3, specifically, Pinterest, Instagram, and Snapchat are seeing the strongest global MAU growth amongst the comp set, with SensorTower data indicating average global MAUs grew +7% YoY, +5% YoY and +5% YoY in Q3 for each platform, respectively.

And where has the engagement shifted? Well, as the analysts point out, "short-form video remains a key driver of engagement growth for Instagram and YouTube." 

As we've discussed in prior research, short-form video remains a dominant theme within digital advertising and continues to be a key driver of engagement growth (time spent, sessions per day, etc.) for several of the major US platforms. To track this theme, we analyze data from SensorTower on user growth & engagement for what we consider to be the three primary short-form video platforms: TikTok, Instagram and YouTube. The data indicates that average time spent per user per day continues to increase for both Instagram (~52 mins daily in the U.S. and ~71 mins globally in Q3, vs. ~37 mins and ~54 mins in Q3'21, respectively) and YouTube (~79 mins daily in the U.S. and ~83 mins globally in Q3, vs. ~62 mins and ~71 mins in Q3'21, respectively). For TikTok, average U.S. time spent per user per day was ~78 mins/day, down from ~85 mins/day in Q3'21 and a peak of ~92 mins/day in mid 2023.

Let's take a step back with a focus on Reddit. At the start of the month, we cited Reddit's U.S. daily active users data via SimilarWeb from X user Bert Tian, who stated:

$RDDT US Website DAU (source @Similarweb ) has dropped sharply after ChatGPT massively reduced Reddit citations — traffic is not even close to early-year levels.

Multiple data vendors are all picking up the shift in ChatGPT citation patterns. Reasons still unclear, but one guess is that ChatGPT may be limiting web search for free accounts as a cost-cutting move to push monetization.

Source: X user Bert Tian

As we noted at the time, who in the AI chatbot world, including OpenAI, thought it was a great idea to pull citations from Reddit, a platform plagued with opinions rather than truth, which skews chatbot answers from end-users? Also, Reddit has a far-left hate epidemic. Even citing Wikipedia is a disaster for the pursuit of truth (hence Musk's move to launch Grokipedia).

Source: TryProfound

Why are Reddit monthly users and engagements sliding? Could users just be burnt out with endless streams of Trump headlines, or perhaps they're developing 'TikTok Brain Rot' with an addiction to short-form videos? Or are ChatGPT citation patterns helping to accelerate lower web traffic? There are many questions. 

One thing we do know: Shares have yet to recover since the Oct. 1 report about new traffic data.

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the entire report in the usual place. Chartpack is extensive, with a lot more in the report. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 10:45

Fool Me Once...

By Bas van Geffen, Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist

The US-China trade war is flaring up again, and the US government is still shutdown. But it’s also earnings season and we have AI deals, so stocks are going higher. How long will that last? And if the S&P 500 suddenly does become sensitive to the unravelling of international relations and global trade, who caves first?

According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, it won’t be the US government. They will not negotiate with China, just because the stock market is going down. That’s easy to say when markets are still going up, but will they stick to it? In any case, such statements do not exude confidence.

Bessent and US Trade Representative Greer noted that the Chinese restrictions on rare earths show that China cannot be trusted with the global supply chain: “It’s an exercise in economic coercion on every country across the world.” The Treasury Secretary concluded that if China cannot be a reliable partner, then the world must decouple.

Considering that the Chinese restrictions on rare earths will give that decoupling an extra nudge, why is the US so unhappy? At the same time, Bessent floated the possibility of a longer deferral of US tariffs on Chinese goods, in return for a delay to Beijing’s new restrictions on rare earths. If China’s supply of rare earths and magnets has been so unreliable despite an earlier agreement between the two countries, then why is Bessent willing to try again?

In the eyes of the Trump administration, things are perhaps moving in the right direction. Even if they are, things are certainly moving too fast for the US and the global economy. But remember, the stock market will not affect the US’ position in the negotiations with China. Neither will potential supply chain disruptions, or economic damage.

Nonetheless, Bessent did offer China another offramp: he suggested that, perhaps, the vice minister of Commerce had “gone rogue.” The US Treasury Secretary added that he “believes China is open to discussion,” and said he was “optimistic that this can be de-escalated” thanks to the strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi.

Trump, however, declared that the US and China are now in a sustained trade war. So, will Bessent’s suggestion of new trade truce get Trump’s approval? And are Chinese officials willing to entertain negotiations, while the US lambasts them at the same time? Will Beijing drop its own vice minister to restart the talks? China did not take the offramp provided by Trump last weekend either.

As the tensions between the US and China re-escalate, the Trump administration’s tactics are becoming less and less covert. The Dutch minister of Finance denied that there had been any US involvement in the unprecedented move to take control of Nexperia, but court documents indicate that the US had in fact warned the Netherlands months earlier that the company could be put on the entity list, subjecting it to US trade restrictions.

Add outright election interference to that. Yesterday, Bessent said that the US would arrange another $20 billion support for Argentina, as the country tries to overcome a liquidity crisis. But will that support be conditional on Milei winning the mid-term elections later this month, just like the $20 billion swap line might be? Trump has certainly suggested that: “I’m with this man because his philosophy is correct [...] And if he wins, we’re staying with him. And if he doesn’t win, we’re gone.”

But we’ll undoubtedly have another AI-deal somewhere, soon.

Equities may continually post gains, gold is too. The metal has surpassed $4,200 per troy ounce, in what has been coined the “debasement trade.” The IMF warned that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP by the end of the decade, which would be the highest since the aftermath of World War II.

The IMF suggests that governments “spend smarter,” as debt servicing costs are rising: “Redirecting public spending toward infrastructure, education, health, and research and development, without increasing overall spending, can deliver significant long-term gains in output,” which would in turn improve debt sustainability.

Yet, many countries have now realised that there are a couple more items to add to that list, including defence, critical resources, and industry.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 10:25

Trump Says He's Mulling Land Strikes On Venezuela, Confirms CIA Covert Ops

President Trump later in the day Wednesday verbalized that he's mulling a land operation or strikes in Venezuela following a New York Times report that same day which said he had authorized CIA covert operations targeting the Maduro government. 

"We are certainly looking at land now because we’ve got the sea under control. We’ve had a couple of days now where there isn’t a boat to be found," Trump told reporters inside the Oval Office when asked about the issue. Below is direct confirmation from the Commander-in-Chief:

President Trump confirms reports that he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela, marking a sharp escalation in US efforts to pressure President Nicolas Maduro’s regime https://t.co/oRfumD3eFu pic.twitter.com/iZeME55qG7

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 16, 2025

"I authorized for two reasons, really. No. 1, they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America, they came in through the border," Trump said. "A lot of drugs coming in from Venezuela, and a lot of drugs come in through the sea."

"But we’re going to stop them by land also," he added. The NYT report had made clear that the end goal would be overthrowing socialist strongman Nicolas Maduro.

We should note that by this logic, the United States would be justified in invading Mexico and waging war against other regional countries as well.

Congress has been missing in action and US Presidents have long pursued regime change in countries the US deems 'enemies' with or without the consent of the American people or its representatives.

Trump was also asked point blank if his goal is the end of President Nicolas Maduro. Trump dodged this one, responding:

"Wouldn’t it be a ridiculous question for me to answer?" Trump said. "But I think Venezuela is feeling heat."

"We’re not going to let our country be ruined because other people want to drop, as you say, their worst ... we’re not going to take them."

So far 27 people of unknown identities (or nationalities) have died in five rounds of attacks on boats which were believed to be smuggling drugs. The Pentagon has publicized these drone strikes by releasing video in each case.

It's become something that both Trump and Hegseth, as well as Vice President J.D. Vance have openly boasted about, despite Venezuela having a third world army and not much in the way of aerial defenses to speak of.

Where's DNI Tulsi Gabbard in all of this? Any pushback?

https://t.co/FFg6ty8rUc pic.twitter.com/RhoZXTKQPc

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) October 15, 2025

Washington typically picks such fights with weak or Third World countries - it wouldn't dare take such brazen action against countries like China or North Korea, which are nuclear armed and have serious militaries.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 10:05

Ill. Gov. JB Pritzker's Tax Docs Show $10.3M Income, $1.4M In "Gambling" Gains

Nothing says 'in touch with working class Americans' more than casually throwing around millions at casinos...just ask Gov. JB Pritzker...

Five months before Democratic primary voters hit the polls, Gov. JB Pritzker — Illinois’ billionaire governor and Hyatt heir — dropped partial tax records showing he and his wife pulled in over $10.3 million in taxable income last year, including a tidy $1.4 million from gambling, according to the Chicago Tribune. 

As usual, the release came with big numbers and small transparency: Pritzker’s campaign shared only the top pages of his returns, leaving the juicy details of his fortune (and those famously murky trusts) safely out of view.

The $10.3 million haul was his biggest in years, up from $3.2 million in 2023 and $2.3 million in 2022 — though still shy of the $18.5 million in 2021. Asked about the jump, a campaign spokesperson offered the usual shrug: “Certain trusts make distributions each year…”

Those same trusts paid $4.5 million to the state and $30.2 million to the feds. The Pritzkers personally kicked in another $1.6 million in federal taxes and $512,000 to Illinois.

As for that gambling income, the campaign clarified that “The Governor had winnings and losses from a casino during the year.” 

Thanks for that incredible clarification. Meanwhile, his 2026 running mate, Christian Mitchell, made a modest-by-comparison $583,600. Forbes pegs Pritzker’s net worth at $3.9 billion, up a casual $200 million from last year.

As for Zero Hedge readers, they appear to be skeptical. One responded to our Tweet pointing out this story by saying: "Kalshi prediction markets - he took the over on chicago crime."

"The gambling income is definitely not bribe money laundering. Definitely not," another responded. Said another follower: "Pritzker is gambling every time he bends over to tie his shoes."

Pritzker likes to say he’s in a “blind trust,” though experts note it’s not that blind — he still gets enough info to fill out required disclosures. He’s promised to donate any profits from companies with state contracts after leaving office.

The governor and his wife also gave $3.3 million to charity last year, doubling their 2023 donations.

All told, Pritzker’s political spending remains as massive as his fortune — about half a billion dollars so far, including over $130 million to clobber Darren Bailey in 2022. Not bad for a guy who technically doesn’t take a paycheck from the state.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 09:25

Futures Rise As Strong TSMC Results Reboot AI Optimism

Stock futures rose as an olive branch from Treasury Secretary Bessent calmed trade-war fears, while a guidance hike from chipmaker TSMC (which saw profit rise 39%) rejuvenated the AI narrative. Mood was boosted as earnings beats continue to roll in and some traders are ramping up bets for a half-point Fed rate cut by year-end. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4%, with support from technology sector earnings, driving slight outperformance by Nasdaq 100 futures which are up 0.6%. Pre-market Mag7 names are all higher with Semis seeing a bid (AVGO +1.6%, NVDA +1.2%) with Cyclicals and Defensives indicated higher but Cyclicals outperforming. Europe's Stoxx 600 also rose, with Nestlé SA jumping more than 8% after reporting a rebound in sales and unveiling plans to cut 16,000 jobs. Bessent floated a longer-term US / China truce with the current agreement set to expire on Nov 10; the rare earth restrictions are receiving pushback from G7. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp and the USD is indicated lower for the third consecutive day. Commodities are mixed with Energy leading, Metals lagging, and Ags mixed. Today we get the October Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and October NAHB housing market index (10am); Fed speaker slate includes Waller, Barr and Miran (9am), Bowman (10am), Miran (4:15pm) and Kashkari (6pm).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia +1.2%, Alphabet +1%, Apple +0.3%, Microsoft +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta +0.4%)

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) falls 9% after the computer hardware and storage company issued a full-year forecast for profit and cash flow that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
• Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) rises 2% after entering into an agreement to sell Del Taco Holdings Inc. to Yadav Enterprises Inc. for $115 million in cash, subject to certain adjustments.
• JB Hunt (JBHT) gains 12% after the transportation and logistics company reported third-quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate helped by better cost control measures.
• Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) soars 54% as two studies in its Phase 3 Essential3 program of ulixacaltamide in essential tremor met their primary endpoints.
• Salesforce (CRM) rises 5.5% after the software company forecast that revenue growth will accelerate to double digits in the coming years.
• Sea Ltd. ADRs (SE) rises 4% after an upgrade from BofA Global Research to buy from neutral, with the analyst noting that there is “strong momentum” across businesses.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rises 2% after it hiked its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year, reinforcing hopes in the longevity of a global boom in AI spending.
• Travelers (TRV) falls 4% after the insurance company reported net premiums written that came in below the average analyst estimates.
• United Airlines (UAL) slips about 1% as analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence note that the airline’s results show signs of saturation, even for its premium seats.

Futures resumed their meltup after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hiked its revenue-growth target and raised its forecast for capital spending. TSMC’s results reinforced hopes on the AI megatrend, after the chipmaker increased its revenue outlook for the second time this year, and underscored how leading chipmakers stand to be among the biggest winners from an AI investment boom that’s expected to top $1 trillion in the coming years. The market’s response showed investors remain optimistic about the corporate outlook, even as renewed trade tensions cast a shadow.

“We’re seeing that companies continue to spend, AI technology has been adopted and keeps being adopted,” said Anthi Tsouvali, a multi-asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Equities should continue to move upwards. But having said that, I don’t think that it’s going to be a straight line.”

After several months of relative calm, friction between Washington and Beijing has flared up again, with stocks seeing sharp swings as dip buyers step in following selloffs. The latest development saw Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent float the possibility of extending a pause on import duties if China halts its planned controls on rare earths.

Despite the tensions, corporate earnings have reminded investors that the fundamentals for stocks remain strong at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. Among S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings through Wednesday, 78% have beaten estimates, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Investors are getting so used to “political ups and downs, that they are now realizing that unless they hurt the earnings of companies, which are the real drivers of risk markets, then they really cannot affect equity markets,” Fabiana Fedeli, chief investment officer for equities, multi-asset and sustainability at M&G Investments, told Bloomberg TV.

The debasement trade continued with gold soared as high as $4,247 an ounce, taking gains this year to more than 60% as trade frictions and expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts lured buyers. The dollar slipped for a third day and Treasuries were little changed. French bonds underperformed European peers as premier Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index also rose, with food beverage and automobile shares leading gains, while travel and insurance stocks lagged; Swiss equities outperformed thanks to a jump for food giant Nestle which soared more than 8% after reporting a rebound in sales and unveiling plans to cut 16,000 jobs. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Nestlé shares surged as much 8.2% after the foodmaker posted a stronger-than-expected increase in quarterly sales and announced plans to slash 16,000 jobs, just weeks after replacing its chief executive officer
• Nordea Bank shares rose as much as 4.1% in Helsinki, reaching a record high, after the lender reported earnings that analysts said were solid, highlighting a beat for net interest income
• CCC fell as much a 9.4%, the most in two weeks, after Ningi Research issued a short report suggesting the Polish footwear retailer’s turnaround is a falsely engineered “illusion”
• Whitbread shares slid as much as 10%, the steepest drop since May 2020, after first-half results. Analysts pointed to higher-than-expected UK cost inflation and a cut in profit guidance for the Premier Inn owner’s German business

Asian stocks advanced, led by South Korea, as investors bet on improved prospects for a tariff deal with the US.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, poised for its biggest two-day gain since April. Korean chipmakers including Samsung and SK Hynix were among the biggest contributors to the gain. TSMC also jumped before the company announced third-quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates. Key equity gauges traded higher in Taiwan and Japan while those in Hong Kong shares fell as investors turned cautious on the tech sector’s outlook. Korea’s Kospi surged 2.5% to a fresh record as hopes for a trade pact drove exporters higher. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects some outcome from negotiations “in the next 10 days,” according to Yonhap News. Meanwhile, executives from Samsung, Hyundai and other Korean firms may meet with President Donald Trump later this week, according to Korea Economic Daily. For the broader region, while the return of US-China trade tensions threatens to derail the breakneck stock rally since April, many investors are still betting that Trump will eventually back down from his tariff threats. In other specific markets, Japanese stocks rose amid eased political uncertainty over next week’s parliamentary vote to decide the prime minister. Australian stocks climbed to a record after unemployment jumped more than expected, strengthening the case for a rate cut.

In FX, dollar-yen rises as Japanese parties hash out policy talks toward possible coalition agreements. French politicians are debating ahead of no-confidence motions, which Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is expected to survive.

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across a flatter yield curve, with 5s30s spread edging back toward 100bp with bunds and gilts seening similarly steady price action during London morning. Long-end yields are richer by about 1bp, with curve spreads broadly flatter by less than 1bp, 10-year is near 4.02%. Minimal moves in European bond markets, slight outperformance in gilts at the short-end after the UK’s economy ekes out modest growth. Focal points of US session include several Fed speakers and potential for more corporate bond offerings by big banks.  

In commodities, gold touches another record high, now up $40 to $4,240/oz. Oil choppy but higher, with Brent trading above $62.

Looking at today's US economic calendar we get the October Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and October NAHB housing market index (10am); October retail sales and PPI reports and weekly jobless claims data will be delayed due to government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Waller, Barr and Miran (9am), Bowman (10am), Miran (4:15pm) and Kashkari (6pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.03%
• VIX -0.3 points at 20.31
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1209.79
• euro little changed at $1.1654
• WTI crude +0.4% at $58.53/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Bessent said the US investment boom is sustainable and just getting started, while he stated there is pent-up demand and America is open for business, according to CNBC. Bessent said the only thing slowing the US and President Trump down is the government shutdown, and he has seen numbers that the shutdown is hurting the economy by up to USD 15bln a day.
• US Treasury official said the government shutdown could cost the US economy USD 15bln per week, correcting Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent comments that estimated USD 15bln of costs per day. 
• US bipartisan group of senators reportedly discussing several different potential off-ramps involving the enhanced Obamacare subsidies, discussing the possibility of two side-by-side votes intended to end the shutdown: Punchbowl.
• US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown: Politico 
• Supreme Court on Wed sounded like it will rule against large chunks of the Voting Rights Act, potentially opening the door to a ~12 seat GOP boost in the House depending on how districts are redrawn. NYT
• Hamas said it’s handed over all the bodies of hostages that it can find without special machinery in the devastated Gaza Strip, but Israel countered it’s not trying hard enough and owes at least another dozen under the ceasefire terms. BBG
• China’s new rare-earth export curbs prompted a backlash from G-7 finance chiefs, with Scott Bessent signaling an emerging united front. Germany and Japan also said a joint response is being considered. BBG
• China Thurs morning clarified that its recent rare earth restrictions don’t amount to an outright ban and that exports will continue. "As long as the rare earths are used for civil purposes, [the exports] will be approved," a spokeswoman for the commerce ministry said at a press briefing on Thursday. Newsweek
• TSMC posted a better-than-anticipated 39% jump in profit, the latest sign of robust AI spending. It also lifted its 2025 revenue growth outlook and said conviction in the AI megatrend is “strengthening.” BBG
• India will no longer purchase Russian oil, according to President Donald Trump, a major victory in his effort to pressure Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Politico
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday warned the U.S. will “impose costs on Russia” if it does not seek to end the Ukraine war, his strongest criticism yet of Moscow and a signal of the administration’s increasing support for Kyiv. Politico
• Big investors are cutting back their exposure to riskier corporate debt, in a bet that a huge rally in recent years has left the market vulnerable to a sell-off if the global economy falters. FT
• President Donald Trump said he might go to the Supreme Court to personally watch oral arguments on whether the bulk of his tariffs pass legal muster. The Supreme Court will hear arguments Nov. 5 over whether import taxes imposed by Trump are legal, with Trump saying the tariffs are authorized under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. BBG
• Seasonal job searches jumped 27% from last year and 50% from 2023, far outpacing postings and signaling a cooling US job market, according to Indeed. Retailers plan the fewest holiday hires since 2009. BBG
• BofA total card spending (w/e 11th Oct) +3.7% Y/Y (prev. 2.2%); surge driven either by higher prices during Amazon's Prime Day amid tariffs, or strong demand.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.
• US President Trump claimed that South Korea signed a deal to make an "upfront" payment of USD 350bln to invest in the US, while it was also reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent said that South Korea and the US can resolve their differences over how to implement Seoul's USD 350bln investment pledge, and that he expects "something" to come "in the next 10 days", according to Yonhap.
• South Korean Presidential Policy Chief noted optimism when asked about tariff talks with the US, while South Korea's Finance Minister said the US may accept South Korea's proposal in tariff talks, according to Yonhap
• Mexican Economy Minister Ebrard said Mexico is in talks with the US to discount tariffs on heavy truck parts.
• Federal officials said they have found no evidence of widespread undervaluing of imported appliances after Whirlpool (WHR) last month accused its rivals of possible tariff evasion, according to WSJ.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak responds to US President Trump's remarks on India: says Russia continues to collaborate with partners, and Novak is confident partners will continue to work with them.
• China's Commerce Ministry said it took a constructive stance during recent US-China trade talks. Says rare earth export controls are different to an export ban. All licence applications for civilian use will be approved.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained despite a choppy performance as US-China frictions remained in focus. ASX 200 printed a record high with most sectors in the green amid a softer yield environment, which was facilitated by a rise in unemployment. Nikkei 225 climbed higher and was unfazed by disappointing Machinery Orders and comments from BoJ hawk Tamura. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged behind regional peers amid US-China frictions, and with the Hong Kong benchmark
underperforming amid weakness in Chinese tech stocks, while it was also reported that the FCC is to expel Hong Kong Telecom from US networks.

Top Asian News

• BoJ, PBoC and BoK governors held a tripartite meeting on October 15th in Washington, which BoJ Governor Ueda chaired, while they exchanged views on recent economic and financial developments.
• BoJ's Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral and the growth rate of Japan's economy is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path. Tamura said don't need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks, but stated that there is a strong possibility that the slowdown in overseas economies will not be as significant as initially expected. Furthermore, he said given upside price risks, the BoJ should push up rates closer toward neutral to avoid being forced to hike rates sharply in the future. BoJ's Tamura declined to comment when asked whether to propose a rate hike at the October meeting, while he stated he believes it is necessary to adjust the degree of monetary easing to make rate closer to neutral rate. He added a weak JPY could accelerate upward price pressures.
• RBA Assistant Governor Kent noted signs that financial conditions are less restrictive after past rate cuts and said the cash rate is within the range of neutral estimates, but the range is very wide and uncertain, while he added that neutral rates are not a suitable guide to the near-term path of monetary policy.
• Japan's Innovations Party, Fujita says another round of discussion with the LDP will take place this Friday . Both parties have found a lot of common ground. Not certain that a deal will be ultimately reached

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened broadly modestly firmer, and have traded sideways throughout the morning. A brief slip seen in the earlier part of the morning, with no clear driver. Thereafter, indices picked up off worst levels amidst constructive trade-related commentary from the Chinese Commerce Ministry; it noted that "All licence applications for civilian use will be approved". European sectors are mixed . Consumer Staples has been boosted by post-earning strength after it reported decent Q3 metrics and announced job cuts. Elsewhere, Consumer Discretionary has been hampered by some downside in Luxury names; LVMH and Kering both received downgrades, with downside also likely some profit-taking after Wednesday's considerable upside.

Top European News

• French PM Lecornu suvives 1st round of no confidence motion; with 271 lawnmakers voting against the government (vs 289 thresold to oust government).
• IFS writes that Chancellor Reeves would need to raise the fiscal buffer to around GBP 50bln vs the GBP 9.9bln she had in March, in order to have a better than 50-50 chance of avoiding additional tax increases and/or spending cuts, according to Bloomberg.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to launch an initiative next week with 20 of the UKʼs largest pension funds, which will try to make it more seamless for pension funds to back British infrastructure and growth projects, according to FT.
• ECB's Dolenc says rates should hold steady unless new shock hits, inflation risks are balanced, growth on a solid path.
• Swiss Government forecasts: Higher US tariffs have further clouded the outlook for the Swiss economy; forecast reflects expectations of a weak second half of 2025 and is based on the assumption that international tariffs will remain at current levels.

FX

• DXY is a touch lower with the USD overall showing a mixed performance vs. peers. The US macro narrative remains fixated on the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China with the latest salvo from Trump being that, if the US doesn't have tariffs, they don't have national security. For now, the focus for the market is whether this is merely a negotiating tactic by Trump or a genuine intention to squeeze the Chinese economy. The US government remains shutdown and as such, tier 1 data points are lacking. For today's agenda, the Philly Fed Business Index is due following yesterday's solid NY Fed Manufacturing print. Elsewhere, the speaker slate includes Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari. DXY hit a WTD low overnight at 98.41 before trimming losses.
• EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD in the run-up to the no-confidence votes in French PM Lecornu. The first motion put forward by the far-right National Rally (RN) will likely fail, as RN and the Union for Democratic Change (UDR) are the only major parties that are backing it. The second motion, put forward by the far-left, La France Insoumise (LFI), has a greater potential to pass given that it could see support from both the Left and the Right. If Lecornu survives, there will likely be some additional reprieve for the EUR and a narrowing of the GE/FR spread. If he falls, odds of fresh legislative elections will rise. Elsewhere, ECBʼs Lane, Lagarde, Wunsch and Kocher are due to give remarks later. EUR/USD has been as high as 1.1675.
• JPY is fractionally firmer vs. the USD with the pair extending above the 151 mark. The focus for Japan remains on domestic politics with LDP leader Takaichi scrambling to secure her position as PM. Her path to power appears to be reliant on forming an alliance with the Japanese Innovation Party (JIP) with the parties having met today and expected to continue discussions tomorrow. Overnight, BoJ's Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral. However, his comments had little follow-through to JPY, given he is the most hawkish member on the board. USD/JPY is still some way off yesterday's peak at 151.87.
• GBP is firmer vs. the USD and extending on Wednesday's upside. August's M/M UK GDP printed in-line with expectations at 0.1% with the prior revised lower to -0.1% from 0%. On the budget, the latest trial balloon from the Treasury is that taxes on the wealthy "will be part of the story". For today's agenda, BoE's Mann and Greene are due to give remarks. Cable has ventured as high as 1.3442 with the next upside target coming via the 50DMA at 1.3473.
• AUD is flat vs. the USD after shrugging off overnight losses that were triggered by the latest Australian labour market report .The release saw an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate and a smaller-than-forecast increase in employment change. Subsequently, AUD/USD slipped onto a 0.64 handle, delving as low as 0.6480 with odds of an RBA rate cut standing at circa 71%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0968 vs exp. 7.1186 (Prev. 7.0995).

Fixed Income

• USTs are slightly firmer thus far, in contrast to EGBs and Gilts . However, magnitudes are slim with gains of just 6+ ticks at most in a 113-08 to 113-13+ band. A parameter that is entirely within Wednesdayʼs 113-06+ to 113-17+ range. Thus far, the main points of focus are US President Trump saying they are in a trade war with China. Though, commentary this morning from Chinaʼs Commerce Ministry has perhaps been a little more conciliatory than we have seen in recent sessions. Ahead, Fed speakers in focus with six officials appearing a total of nine times across the day. Additionally, we await the Philly Fed manufacturing report, which follows this week's upside surprise seen in the Empire manufacturing survey, and ahead of PMI data due next week.
• OATs marginally bid as the French PM survives the 1st no confidence motion; now awaiting 2nd vote . Into the second vote, OATs trade slightly heavier than Bunds with the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread wider today and as high as 78.5bps. Of the two motions, the one filed by La France Insoumise (LFI) has a chance of passing; full Newsquawk primer available on the feed. For the motion to pass, a majority in the Assembly of 289 votes is needed. Elsewhere, no move to the morningʼs French tap which, while taken down well enough and without reaction, was a little softer than the last very strong outing.
• A slightly softer start to the day. Bunds have at most posted losses of 21 ticks at a 129.93 trough . However, this has since moderated a touch to losses of just under 10 ticks in a 129.93 to 130.14 band. Specifics for the benchmark were a little light, no supply from Germany though the Spanish tap was received well enough and spurred no discernable reaction. Elsewhere, the final Italian inflation print for September was unrevised
• Gilts opened unchanged at Wednesdayʼs 92.43 close . External leads prior to the open were a little mixed, with USTs firmer while Bunds were softer but both within reach of the unchanged mark. The morningʼs main update for the UK was August growth data. Overall, the series came in broadly as expected though the return to growth for the headline was offset by a downward revision to negative territory for Julyʼs M/M figure. The data doesn't change the narrative for the BoE of a hold in November and a cut being possible in December. With a move dependent on how the next data points print (particularly CPI) and the November Budget. On that, the Guardian adds to recent reports around taxes for the wealthiest members of society while the FT previews the launch of a pension funds initiative next week.
• Spain sells EUR 4.442bln vs exp. EUR 4.0-5.0bln 1.25% 2030, 2.55% 2032 and 3.20% 2035 Bono.
• France sells EUR 11.499bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.50% 2030, 2.70% 2031, and 0.00% 2031 OAT.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain rangebound throughout the APAC session despite increased Russian oil restrictions and rising trade tensions. WTI and Brent oscillate in a USD 58.55-59.11/bbl and USD 62.18-62.75/bbl band respectively, as markets wait for further confirmation of Russian oil export restrictions. Most recently, crude futures have dipped down to fresh lows, but lacks a clear driver.
• Spot XAU continues to climb to record levels, peaking at USD 4242/oz during the APAC session and currently trading just shy of best levels at USD 4230/oz. This comes as US-China tensions, ongoing US government shutdown and further expectations of rate cuts in the US drive the precious metal higher.
• Base metals currently trading relatively muted as trade tensions weigh on the metal space while structural challenges support the metal space. 3M LME Copper is currently oscillating in a c. USD 130/t range as the market waits for more news.
• Vice President of Transneft says companies have not reduced oil supplies to the pipeline system; have enough capacity as Russia's OPEC+ oil output quota increases.
• "Russian Energy Minister: Oil refineries will postpone maintenance work to meet market needs", according to Al Arabiya.
• UBS sees the decline in real rates, potentially into negative territory, further boosting the portfolio appeal of gold, which could rise towards UBS' upside case of USD 4,700/oz.
• Equinor (EQNR NO) says production has started at its Bacalhau field (220k BPD)
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Distillate -4.8mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline +3.0mln (exp. - 0.1mln).
• US President Trump said Indian PM Modi assured him that they won't buy Russian oil, while he added that they now need to get China to stop buying Russian oil. It was later reported that some Indian oil refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, with refiners expecting a gradual reduction in imports, according to Reuters sources.
• Saudi Aramco CEO warned of a global oil shortage if the industry fails to invest, according to FT. 
• Ukraine's military says it struck Russia's Saratov oil refinery (140k BPD) overnight

Geopolitics

• IDF says "Sirens sounding in Eilat following a hostile aircraft infiltration", via X; Eilat alarms in Israel were a false alarm, according to Al-Hadath correspondent.
• Israel reportedly gave the US new intelligence that shows Hamas has access to more of the bodies than it claims, according to Axios' Ravid, while it was separately reported that the Red Cross received the remains of two new hostages, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US senior advisor said there were very positive conversations involving the US on making sure aid reaches Gaza, while the advisor stated that stabilisation forces are starting to be constructed and that many countries have raised their hand to be part of a Gaza stabilisation force.
• "Senior Egyptian official to Saudi Al-Hadath TV: The issue of the return of the dead hostages may lead to the postponement of the next stages of the Trump plan", according to Kann News.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• US President Trump said Ukraine would like to go on the offensive in the war with Russia, while he also suggested that Russian President Putin could make a settlement.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump confirmed that he authorised the CIA to operate in Venezuela.
• Venezuela's government said it rejects the statement by US President Trump in which he publicly admitted to having authorised operations to act against the peace and stability of Venezuela, while it stated the US statement constitutes a violation of international law and the UN Charter. Furthermore, it stated that US manoeuvres seek to legitimise an  operation of "regime change" with the ultimate aim of appropriating Venezuelan oil resources.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Oct Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10, prior 23.2
• 10:00 am: Aug Business Inventories, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 33, prior 32

Central Bank Speakers 

• 9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks at Council on Foreign Relations
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Stablecoins
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Stress Testing Research Conference
• 4:15 pm: Fed Governor Stephen Miran in Moderated Conversation
• 6:00 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Town Hall in South Dakota

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets recovered some ground yesterday as strong earnings and more positive signals on the US-China relationship helped to boost investor optimism. So that meant the S&P 500 (+0.40%) closed at its highest level since Trump’s tariff announcement on Friday, whilst US HY spreads also tightened a further -16bps. Similarly in Europe, France’s CAC 40 (+1.99%) posted its best performance since May amidst a surge for LVMH (+12.22%) after its earnings release, and the STOXX 600 (+0.57%) also hit its highest level since the Friday tariff news. So there’s been some more positivity returning to markets, with investors hoping that an escalation in the trade war can still be avoided.

Starting with that trade news, there were a few positive signals from Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday which raised hopes that the 100% additional tariffs on China wouldn’t end up being implemented. Bessent said that as far he knows, President Trump “is a go” for meeting with President Xi this month. And he also suggested that the US could extend the trade truce for a longer period if China didn’t pursue its plan to put export controls on rare earths. That said, there was little sign of backing down by Trump, and shortly after the US equity close, he suggested that the US was in a trade war with China and again signalled 100% tariffs.

This backdrop led to a topsy-turvy session, with a positive mood dominating overall as the S&P 500 closed +0.40% higher, though it had been up as much as +1.20% shortly after Bessent’s comments. The trade-exposed areas saw a clear outperformance, seemingly reflecting investors’ growing confidence that the full 100% tariffs will ultimately be avoided. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+1.70%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (+2.99%) posted strong gains, with latter also helped by positive commentary from ASML (+3.12%). So that meant the NASDAQ (+0.66%) and the Mag-7 (+0.79%) also outperformed. And there was a further boost from solid bank earnings, with Morgan Stanley (+4.71%) and Bank of America (+4.37%) both rising after their latest results.

In others news, Bessent also confirmed that he had narrowed the number of Fed chair candidates from 11 to 5, who CNBC have reported are Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. And Bessent also said that the next round of interviews would begin later in November, after which he imagines sending 3-4 names for Trump’s consideration. Bear in mind that incumbent Fed Chair Powell’s four-year term as Chair comes to an end in May, and as it stands on Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is considered the most likely to be nominated as Chair, with a 34% chance, with Kevin Warsh in second on 19%.

Against that backdrop, front-end Treasury yields moved slightly higher yesterday, as the more positive sentiment led investors to dial back their expectations for rapid rate cuts. So the 2yr yield (+1.6bps) ended the day at 3.50%, though the 10yr yield was down -0.4bps to 4.03%, its lowest in four weeks. Matters were also helped by some decent economic data, with the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey rising to 10.7 (vs. -1.8 expected). But of course, we didn’t get the previously-scheduled CPI release because of the government shutdown, which is coming out on October 24 instead. And concern about a prolonged shutdown has continued to mount, with no signs yet of a compromise emerging between Republicans and Democrats. Indeed, Polymarket odds of the shutdown lasting beyond November 16 are up to 32% after a federal judge ordered the administration to pause plans to fire federal workers during the shutdown. And we’re already on day 16 now, making this shutdown the joint-third longest with 2013. Only two others have gone on for longer, which are the 21-day shutdown in 1995-96, and the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a stronger performance, in part because of lower oil prices, which is helping to ease concerns about inflation. Indeed yesterday, Brent crude oil prices (-0.77%) closed at a 5-month low of $61.91/bbl, though they are back up to $62.45 overnight after Trump suggested that India would halt purchases of Russian oil. So yields fell across the continent yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.0bps), OATs (-5.4bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all moving lower.

Meanwhile, the Franco-German 10yr spread tightened to a one-month low of 77bps, as investor expectations grew that PM Lecornu’s government would survive two no-confidence votes today. As a reminder, Lecornu proposed suspending the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election, meaning no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028. So that led the Socialist Party to say they wouldn’t vote to topple the government, which has increased Lecornu’s chances of winning. But the National Assembly remains fractured between different political groups, and all eyes will be on the result, particularly given two former PMs (Barnier and Bayrou) have lost confidence votes in the last 12 months. 

Otherwise, European equities were also relatively upbeat, with the STOXX 600 (+0.57%) advancing thanks to strong company earnings. Most of its gains were supported by the CAC 40 (+1.99%), which posted its biggest jump since May after LVMH (+12.22%) reported strong earnings. However, it was a different across the rest of Europe, with the FTSE 100 (-0.30%) and the DAX (-0.23%) both losing ground.

Overnight, the equity rally has stalled out following Trump’s comments, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.04%) basically flat. But we have seen a decent performance from several indices in Asia, including the KOSPI (+2.11%), which is on track for another record, alongside a strong advance for the Nikkei (+1.08%). Chinese equities have seen more muted gains however, with the CSI 300 (+0.33%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.10%) only posting modest gains. And over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.81%) has risen after the latest employment data for September was weaker than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% (vs. 4.3% expected). In turn, that’s led investors to price in a growing chance of a rate cut at the next RBA meeting, with futures now suggesting a 63% probability of a cut in November, up from 36% yesterday. So that’s led to a rally for government bonds too, with the 10yr yield (-4.8bps) down to 4.16%, and the Australian dollar has weakened -0.35% against the US dollar.

To the day ahead now, and we’ll get UK August monthly GDP, Italy’s August trade balance, Eurozone August trade balance, Canada September existing home sales, housing starts. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Waller, Barr, Bowman and Miran, and the ECB’s Lagarde, Kocher, Wunsch and Lane. Notable earnings for today include Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 08:37

"World Is Changing": Nestlé Shares Surge Most Since 2008 After Announcing Plans To Cut 16,000 Jobs

Shares of Swiss food giant Nestlé SA jumped more than 8% in Switzerland today, marking the largest intraday gain in 17 years. This followed the company's announcement of an acceleration in its turnaround efforts, including aggressive restructuring measures such as slashing 16,000 jobs, or about 6% of its global workforce, over the next two years.

"The world is changing, and Nestlé needs to change faster. This will include making hard but necessary decisions to reduce headcount over the next two years, Nestlé CEO Philipp Navratil wrote in a statement.

The restructuring is part of a broadened cost-savings plan targeting $3.7 billion by 2027, paired with an earnings release that showed stronger-than-expected Q3 sales growth of 4.3%.

The news sent Nestlé shares surging 8.25%, the largest intraday surge in October 2008.

On the year, shares are up 10% after being nearly halved since peaking in late 2021. Shares recently bounced off late 2016 lows.

Wall Street analysts welcomed new signs of improvement in Nestlé's Real Internal Growth. Nestlé also reiterated its guidance.

Here's what Wall Street is saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

RBC (sector perform)

• Analyst James Edwardes Jones says this update could be the one that shows Nestlé is on the path to "rehabilitation" in RIG, noting a strong 120bps beat on this metric

• Nespresso saw the strongest beat in 3Q, while Nestlé Health Science growth was also a meaningful beat

• Maintaining of guidance is as expected

Morgan Stanley (underweight)

• Results are a "step in the right direction," with RIG +1.5% vs consensus at 0.3%, analyst Sarah Simon writes

• However, still some drag effects from China, and notes that 4Q will face some tougher comparisons

• Welcomes the higher cost savings ambitions and says this "suggests a greater sense of urgency to resolve underperforming areas"

Vontobel (buy)

• 3Q faced relatively easy comps, but Nestlé definitely delivered on RIG, which has been a key focus, analyst Jean- Philippe Bertschy says

• Beyond the numbers, CEO comments help put Nestlé on the "offensive" and seemingly heading in the right direction

Jefferies (hold)

• Step up and transparency on cost savings is welcome, alongside better-than-expected results, according to analyst David Hayes
• Remains some concern that 4Q growth will step down, showing still plenty more to do, but this is a good start

Analysts hold 11 "Buys", 12 "Holds" and 1 "Sell" on Nestlé with an average 12-month price target of 85 CHF.

. . .

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 08:25

DC Judge Lets 'Big Balls' Attackers Walk Free

A Washington DC judge, Kendra Biggs, has let two teens who attacked former DOGE staffer 'big balls' walk free on probation, avoiding jail time because the judge feels her job is to 'rehabilitate' and not punish. 

Edward 'Big Balls' Coristine

The decision drew sharp criticism from President Trump, who said Wednesday afternoon; "That's terrible," adding "the judge should be ashamed." 

The defendants, both 15-years-old, pleaded guilty to various charges related to the attack on the 19-year-old Musk protégé, Edward Coristine. 

BREAKING - DC Judge Kendra Briggs has allowed the two “teens” who jumped Edward ‘Big Balls’ Coristine to avoid jail and sentenced them to simple probation, stating her job is to “rehabilitate,” not punish. pic.twitter.com/7LRv7fVbQP

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) October 15, 2025

The male pleaded guilty to attempted robbery and simple assault - and felony assault and a robbery at a nearby gas station in a separate incident. The female attacker pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of simple assault for pepper-spraying someone in the separate gas station incident - for which prosecutors agreed to drop the assault charge from the 'big balls' incident. 

Via WaPo

US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro said the decision to sentence the pair to probation was "shocking."

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt lamented on "The Charlie Kirk Show," "One of the big issues in D.C. is these juveniles, they just get a slap on the wrist," adding "This administration has a completely different philosophy. We need law and order."

The two teens were part of a group wreaking havoc along a busy nightlife corridor in D.C. about a mile from the White House in the early hours of Aug. 3. No other juveniles have been charged. -WaPo

"The two of you were together with a larger group of younger people who decided to basically terrorize U Street," Biggs told the teens during a hearing at DC Superior Court Tuesday afternoon. 

The night of the incident, the two teens approached Big Balls and another person on Swann Street in Northwest Washington in the predawn darkness. 

"Let me get your car! Let me get your car," said the teens. While Coristine's friend was able to jump in the car and lock the doors, the teens beat the shit out of Big Balls. 

In a Wednesday night post on X, Coristine posted "This senseless crime must be stopped," adding that many of the people involved in the attack remain on the streets, unprosecuted. 

"That night could’ve gone far differently. Think of your daughters and mothers," he wrote. "The same group attacked people before and after us, breaking ribs and stomping heads."

The teens must perform 90 hours of community service, stay away from each other, and stay out of cars unless they have the owner's permission. 

Lol. LMAO even. 

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Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 06:45