Elon Musk's Trillion-Dollar Pay-Package Faces Shareholder Vote Today; Here's What To Know

Elon Musk’s staggering $1 trillion pay package will dominate Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting today, setting up one of the most high-stakes corporate votes in years over the future of the world’s most visible CEO.

The board has made the choice explicit. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm warned that the decision is about whether shareholders still want to “retain Elon as Tesla’s CEO and motivate him” to make the company “the leading provider of autonomous solutions and the most valuable company” on Earth.

After a Delaware judge struck down his previous $56 billion award twice, Musk has gone without any official compensation — and Tesla is now asking investors to restore a deal even larger than before.

The plan ties Musk’s payout to wildly ambitious milestones.

The package is structured in 12 tranches, each worth 35.3 million shares, tied to both market capitalization milestones and operational objectives.

The first market cap target is $2 trillion, and the final milestone is $8.5 trillion.

Operational targets include:

• Delivering 20 million vehicles over 10 years, more than double Tesla’s production over the past dozen years.

• Securing 10 million full self-driving subscriptions.

• Producing 1 million humanoid robots through Tesla’s Optimus division.

• Operating 1 million robotaxis in commercial service.

• Meeting earnings milestones in eight consecutive quarters, each measured over four quarters.

While these goals are technically achievable, Tesla has struggled to meet some recent operational benchmarks.

As BI noted Musk himself framed the stakes differently on the latest earnings call: “I just don’t feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations.”

Proxy advisers ISS and Glass Lewis are urging a no vote, citing “excessive power” and weak oversight. Musk fired back in recent days, calling them “corporate terrorists.” But with his own roughly 13% stake and a large base of loyal retail shareholders who usually back him, supporters say the numbers are in his favor. As billionaire investor Ron Baron told CNBC, “Elon is the ultimate ‘key man’ of key man risk. Without his relentless drive and uncompromising standards, there would be no Tesla.”

Photo: Baron, CNBC

Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund said it would vote no because of “the total size of the award, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk.” Corporate governance expert Nell Minow said she’d only consider the package if Musk “shut up about politics” and focused fully on Tesla instead of juggling xAI, SpaceX, Neuralink, The Boring Company and his political campaigns.

Shareholders will also weigh Musk’s push for Tesla to invest in his AI startup xAI, which he says Tesla “would have invested in… long ago” if it were up to him. 

Meanwhile, broader concerns over governance are on the ballot — though Tesla’s board has recommended against all shareholder accountability measures, including annual director elections and reversing a Texas rule that limits which investors can sue the board. “These actions violate basic tenets of good corporate governance and must be reversed,” said New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

All of this comes during a volatile year for Tesla. The company appears at a jumping off point into AI and robotics, while research suggests the company could have sold dramatically more cars without Musk’s actions outside the company. Yet shares have rebounded — up 14% this year — boosted in part by Musk’s own $1 billion stock purchase.

The outcome of the vote is expected to be announced after today’s meeting in Austin. You can watch the full meeting below, beginning at 4PM EST:

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 11:20

Nancy Pelosi Finally Retiring From Congress At 85

After days of speculation, former House Speaker and legendary insider trader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has formally announced that she out.

In a Thursday morning video, Pelosi announced that she won't seek reelection after completing her current term.

"There has been no greater honor for me than to stand on the House floor and say, ‘I speak for the people of San Francisco.’ I have truly loved serving as your voice in Congress, and I've always honored the soul of Saint Francisco — ‘Lord, make me an instrument of thy peace.' The anthem of our city," Pelosi said in a voiceover. Which 'Lord' she was referring to is unclear. 

"That is why I want you, my fellow San Franciscans to be the first to know I will not be seeking re-election to Congress. With a grateful heart, I look forward to my final year of service as your proud representative as we go forward."

Pelosi, who has been in congress since 1987 after winning a special election to replace the late Rep. Sala Burton (D-CA), served as House speaker from 2007-2011, and then again from 2019 to 2023. 

Pelosi become one of President Trump's largest enemies over the past decade - dramatically tearing up his State of the Union speech in 2020, and refusing to allow the National Guard to deploy on Jan. 6. 

Trump cheered Pelosi's retirement announcement - telling Fox News: "The retirement of Nancy Pelosi is a great thing for America," adding that she's "evil," "corrupt," and "only focused on bad things for our country."

"She was rapidly losing control of her party and it was never coming back. I’m very honored she impeached me twice and failed miserably twice," Trump added. 

Of course, she hasn't been right for a while... this was five years ago:

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 11:00

CarMax Shares Crater As Board Ousts CEO Amid Deepening Used-Car Market Cracks

CarMax shares plunged in the early cash session after the struggling used-car retailer delivered weak preliminary third-quarter results that missed Wall Street expectations, and compounded the blow by announcing the abrupt termination of its chief executive officer.

"We make car buying and selling simple, transparent, and personalized," Chair of the Board Tom Folliard stated in a press release, adding, "However, our recent results do not reflect that potential and change is needed."

Folliard was referring to preliminary third-quarter results: earnings per share forecasted between .18 cents and .36 cents, missed the Bloomberg Consensus of .69 cents

• Prelim EPS 18c to 36c, estimate 69c (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Prelim used unit sales in comparable stores -8% to -12%, estimate -3.7%

In addition to the weak preliminary earnings report, the company's board ousted CEO William D. Nash amid declining revenue...

... and stock collapse. 

The combination of today's news sent shares tumbling as much as 15%, pushing year-to-date losses to over 57%. Meanwhile, online used-car retailer Carvana has gained more than 50% so far this year.

Are CarMax's troubles a broader sign that used-car prices could tumble amid worsening consumer sentiment, with lower- and middle-income households increasingly cutting back on restaurant spending?

Let's not forget that the implosion of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings may have been an inflection point... 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 10:45

France's Plans To Deploy Troops To Ukraine Risk Sparking A Major Crisis

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported that France is plotting to deploy up to 2,000 soldiers, the core of which will be Latino assault troops from the Foreign Legion who are presently undergoing intensive training in Poland, to Central Ukraine in the near future.

This follows Chief of Staff of the French Army Pierre Schill declaring that his country will be ready to deploy troops to Ukraine next year as part of “security guarantees”.

Putin earlier warned that any foreign troops there would be legitimate targets.

Nevertheless, SVR reported in late September that “the first group of career military personnel from France and the United Kingdom has already arrived in Odessa”, yet no crisis followed. The reason might be that neither of them confirmed their forces’ presence there, perhaps for escalation-management purposes, so they and Russia aren’t (yet?) making a big deal about any potential casualties. Up to 2,000 conventional troops, however, would be impossible to hide and thus represent a major escalation.

French President Emmanuel Macron first flirted with deploying troops to Ukraine in February 2024, but nothing came of it likely due to reluctance among his NATO allies to risk World War III with Russia. One year later, new Secretary of Defense (now War) Pete Hegseth informed the bloc that the US won’t extend Article 5 security guarantees to allies’ troops in Ukraine. Since then, reports circulated that Trump might authorize US intelligence and logistics support for precisely such a post-war deployment.

These rumors followed his Anchorage Summit with Putin and preceded the US’ latest escalation against Russia by two months, the latter of which was assessed here as being driven in part by Trump believing that he can coerce Putin into the most realistic maximum concessions possible. About that, Russia is unlikely to ever cede the disputed territories under its control since the constitution prohibits that, but it’s hypothetically possible that it could accept the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine one day.

It’s unimportant if some consider this to be a political fantasy since that doesn’t detract from the argument that Trump is formulating US policy towards the Ukrainian Conflict with this scenario in mind. Whether this potentially French-led force would deploy during hostilities or only afterwards is a subject of debate, not to mention whether any such force would ever deploy there at all, but France remembers what Hegseth said in February and therefore probably wouldn’t do so unilaterally without US approval.

Accordingly, it should be assumed that Trump is aware of Schill’s declaration of intent about next year’s possible deployment to Ukraine and Macron’s potential plans to deploy assault troops even sooner but at the very least didn’t object, perhaps even encouraging this as leverage over Putin (as he might see it).

If so, then Putin must decide whether to reach a deal with Trump over this for escalation-management purposes or climb the escalation ladder by authorizing strikes against those troops if they deploy there.

It was predicted here in late September after SVR’s report about French and UK troops in Odessa that “Direct Western intervention in the conflict is now arguably turning into a fait accompli, it’s just a question of how Russia will respond and whether the US will then be pulled into mission creep.”

The two latest news items confirm the accuracy of that analysis, which lends credence to the overall assessment that Trump is “escalating to de-escalate” on better terms for the West and worse ones for Russia.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 10:25

Yields Plunge After Private Tracker Shows US Lost 9K Jobs In October, Driven By Government Collapse

One month ago, when the market was freaking out by the lack of official government data (it has since realized again, that whether the government is open or closed, or what the jobs number is - certainly not until it is revised 3 or 4 times, does not matter), everyone scrambled to find private sources of economic data. That's when the jobs data compiled by Revelio Labs quickly emerging as one of the favorites. It also showed that contrary to fears prompted by ADP that the US was now in a labor recession, in September the US actually added 60K jobs, the biggest monthly increase of 2025.

Fast forward one month when the news was far uglier: according to the latest Revelio Labs data, not only was Sept revised almost 50% lower from 60K to 33%, but October was ugly, plunging to -9,100, the second worst print of 2025, and the second worst on record (Revelio only goes back to 2021).

Looking below the surface revealed that the actual number is not quite as bad as the entire drop and then some was the result of 22,210 government job losses, but there also losses in manufacturing and trade. 

Coupled with the surge in government layoffs noted earlier as tracked by Challenger...

... and suddenly rate cut odds are spiking, with 0.69 rate cuts priced in for December, up from 0.62 yesterday.

The data has resulted in a broad-based risk off move, with stocks sliding to session lows, and 10Y yields tumbling 5bps to session lows below 4.10%

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 10:10

"There's A Plan": Group Of Centrist Democrats Want Colleagues To End Shutdown

A group of eight centrist Democrats who want to end the government shutdown - now the longest in US history - have been approaching their colleagues about a deal to reopen the federal government this week or next week, however progressives within the party are pushing back hard, according to The Hill, citing people familiar with the discussions.

To refresh your memory, the crux of the shutdown is that Democrats want to extend pandemic-era Obamacare enhancements, which include coverage for illegals - and they're unwilling to kick the can down the road with a "clean" (free of new pork) continuing resolution while congress debates a larger package (again).

According to one senator, the centrist Democrats include Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Gary Peters (D-MI) - and apparently have the 'contours of a deal' and are "whipping" more of their colleagues to sign on. 

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) has reportedly signaled that she would likely support such a deal, which would include a plan to pass regular appropriations bills, as well as a vote on extending expiring health insurance subsidies (which were always meant to be temporary during the pandemic). 

The deal would also create a path for approving an appropriations package to fund part of the federal government through 2026, and would guarantee Democrats a vote in the Senate on extending the enhanced Obamacare provisions.

"There’s a plan, we’ve all kind of semiagreed to it and we’re now seeing not whether [Senate Democratic Leader Chuck] Schumer will support it but whether he will not blow it up," one senator told the outlet. 

Senate Democrats met for more than two hours at lunch Tuesday to discuss the parameters of the emerging deal.

One person familiar with Tuesday’s heated discussion within the caucus says there appears to be at least eight Democratic votes to reopen the government — even though progressive Democratic senators vented their frustration with the potential deal. -The Hill

"To me, it looked like there were eight votes, but it could change. There’s a lot to think about," one senator told the outlet. 

If Shaheen, Peters and Hassan do vote for a short-term spending deal, GOP leaders would only need two more votes to reopen the government. 

That said, since Rand Paul (R-KY) has repeatedly voted against a House-passed continuing resolution to fund the government through Nov. 21, and GOP leaders will need eight Democrats to cross the aisle. 

They've already got the support of Sens. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Angus King (I-ME), who have all repeatedly voted in favor of the bill.

Other Democrats who have been involved in talks with Shaheen and Peters are Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), who faces a competitive reelection next year, and Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).

Slotkin, however, signaled to reporters Tuesday that she wants to see a solution to rising healthc are costs as part of any agreement to fund the government.

“When there’s a deal and we get something on health care, I’ll be ready to reopen the government,” she said.  -The Hill

Yet, progressives want Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to 'use his personal influence' to dissuade the coalition of centrist Dems from reopening the government. 

Of note, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said that any proposal that would extend Obamacare subsidies would need 60 votes in the Senate - ruling out the possibility of passing such a provision with a simple-majority vote. 

Meanwhile, 47% of Polymarket bettors think we're in for another 10 days of this, minimum. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 09:55

Mamdani Announces All-Female Transition Team, Including Lina Khan

Authyored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani announced on Wednesday that his transition team would be all-female.

“Last night we made history, and today we begin the work of making a new administration,” Mamdani said in a video posted to X.

Following Mamdani’s substantial victory in the city’s mayoral election on Nov. 4, outgoing New York City Mayor Eric Adams will begin handing off power to the mayor-elect’s incoming administration.

Mamdani said that during the transition period, his team would work to “build a City Hall that delivers on the promises of our campaign: to make New York City affordable, and to make it accountable to the people it serves.”

Several of the women announced on Mamdani’s transition website as co-chairs of the transition team are Democratic Party insiders, particularly within New York City politics.

Mamdani said these figures were chosen on the basis of “excellence, integrity, and a hunger to solve old problems with new solutions.”

Members of the transition team include former Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, former first deputy mayor Maria Torres-Springer, United Way of New York City head Grace Bonilla, former deputy mayor for health and human services Melanie Hartzog, and political consultant Elana Leopold.

Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist candidate whose bid to lead America’s largest city drew national attention, has garnered over 50 percent of the vote in the race with 93 percent of the votes counted.

He defeated the leading rival for the post, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat who ran an Independent campaign, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.

Mamdani ran as a political outsider, drawing huge crowds and grassroots support while obtaining limited backing from establishment figures in the Democratic Party, which had nominated him for the job, for his progressive platform.

Left-wing figures such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) were outspoken in favor of Mamdani’s bid.

Meanwhile, top party figures in Washington were more hesitant.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) gave Mamdani his endorsement only near the end of the race, but he has stated that he doesn’t believe Mamdani is the future of the Democratic Party.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), meanwhile, never provided an endorsement in the race.

Mamdani’s election also sets the stage for a potentially adversarial relationship with the federal government.

The mayor-elect vowed during his campaign that he would attempt to “Trump-proof” New York, including through opposition to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity in the city.

During an interview with Fox News’s Brett Baier on Nov. 5, President Donald Trump said:

“I’m so torn, because I would like to see the new mayor do well, because I love New York. I really love New York.”

Trump repeated his position that Mamdani is a “communist” whose policies won’t work.

When asked whether he had reached out to the mayor-elect, Trump said Mamdani should reach out to him.

“I think he should be very nice to me. You know, I’m the one that sort of has to approve a lot of things coming to him,” Trump said. “He has to be a little bit respectful of Washington, because if he’s not, he doesn’t have a chance of succeeding.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 09:35

October Layoffs Surge Most Since 2003 Amid Cost-Cutting, AI Adoption, Challenger Data Shows 

The U.S. labor market weakened considerably in October, with companies slashing 153,000 jobs, nearly triple last year's total and the highest for that month since 2003, according to a new report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Technology and warehousing jobs led the layoffs, mostly because companies are slashing folks who were hired during the pandemic-era overhiring period. Also, slowing consumer demand and rising costs are other contributing factors. Year-to-date job cuts have surpassed 1 million, the highest since 2020, while announced hiring plans are at their lowest level since 2011.

"October's pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month. Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes. Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market," said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Challenger continued, "This is the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008. Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape."

"Over the last decade, companies have shied away from announcing layoffs in the fourth quarter, so it's surprising to see so many in October. With the onset of social media, and the ability for workers to share their negative experiences with their employers, the trend of announcing layoffs before the holidays fell away, a practice that seemed particularly cruel," he said.

U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, a 175% increase from a year ago and 183% higher than September. This is the worst October since 2003 and the biggest fourth-quarter total since 2008. 

Source: Bloomberg 

Which industries cut the most in October? 

• Technology: 33,281 cuts in October (up from 5,639 in September); 141,159 YTD (+17% y/y).

• Warehousing: 47,878 cuts (up from 984); 90,418 YTD (+378% y/y) — signaling automation and excess capacity post-pandemic.

• Retail: 2,431 cuts (slightly down m/m); 88,664 YTD (+145% y/y).

• Consumer Products: 3,409 cuts; 41,033 YTD (+21% y/y).

• Nonprofits: 27,651 cuts YTD (+419% y/y) amid federal funding losses and cost pressures.

• Media: 16,680 cuts YTD (+26% y/y); News subset: 2,075 cuts YTD (down 41% y/y).

Reasons for the cuts:

• "DOGE Impact" remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 293,753 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors. An additional 20,976 cuts have been attributed to DOGE Downstream Impact, which reflects the loss of federal funding to private and non-profit entities.

• In October alone, Cost-Cutting was the top reason employers cited for job reductions, responsible for 50,437 announced layoffs. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was the second-most cited factor, leading to 31,039 job cuts as companies continue to restructure and automate. AI has been cited for 48,414 job cuts this year.

• Market and Economic Conditions accounted for another 21,104 cuts in October, bringing the year-to-date total for this reason to 229,331, while Closings of stores, units, and plants resulted in 16,739 cuts for the month and 161,391 for the year. Restructuring was cited in 7,588 October announcements, for a total of 108,038 so far in 2025.

• The Midwest logged 351 CEO exits year-to-date, up 6% from 332 in 2024. Illinois led the region with 72 CEO departures, compared to 57 last year. Indiana nearly doubled to 38 from 20, and Iowa rose to 23 from 11. Meanwhile, Ohio declined slightly to 61 from 71, and Michigan dropped to 29 from 41

Challenger data shows that the hiring outlook for the full year and in October darkened:

• Planned hires: 488,077 YTD (down 35% y/y) - the lowest since 2011.

• Seasonal hires: 372,520 through October - the weakest since 2012.

• Challenger expects no strong holiday hiring rebound, despite possible rate cuts.

The takeaway is that the labor market was already softening by late summer, as cost-cutting reshaped corporate labor structures amid the need to correct overhiring from the pandemic era in the era of increasing AI adoption. This is a clear sign of continued loosening in the labor market, in stark contrast to the Fed's "gradual cooling" narrative.

And if the Challenger data is correct, the labor market has shifted into a low-hiring, high-firing regime, an unsettling development that could spell bad news for the economy.

This data may only suggest stronger views for a December interest rate cut. Goldman thinks so (read the report).

JPMorgan analyst note, "The market is weighing a weaker labor market and potential spending vs. evidence on the efficacy (and ROI) of AI plus productivity gains." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 09:00

If Solar And Wind Are Now Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels, Why Don't We Have More?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via Mish Talk,

The answer is they aren’t cheaper...

Energy Talking Points

Substack writer Alex Epstein has a great post on The “Levelized Cost of Energy” Scam.

If you ever hear anyone favorably compare solar and wind to coal, gas, or nuclear by citing a low LCOE—“Levelized Cost of Energy”—you are being scammed.

You’ve heard it over and over: “Solar and wind are now cheaper than fossil fuels.”

You might suspect something is wrong here, because if solar and wind were so cheap their developers wouldn’t always be asking for subsidies, or claim the sky is falling when subsidies are taken away.

The suspicious claim that “Solar and wind are now cheaper than fossil fuels” is usually justified using an intimidating-sounding metric called LCOE: “Levelized Cost of Energy.”

In a 2020 report, the International Energy Agency used LCOE to claim that “renewable” energy costs are now “competitive” with fossil fuel costs, and that onshore wind is the cheapest source of electricity in most countries.

In a 2023 article titled “The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think,” the New York Times used LCOE to claim that solar and wind are somehow cheap while coal, gas, and nuclear are somehow expensive.

LCOE absurdly equates the value of reliable electricity and unreliable electricity

• Imagine there were a metric called LCOB—Levelized Cost of Babysitters—that compared the cost of different babysitters in your neighborhood.
  
  But there was a catch that made it useless: the organization collecting the metric allowed totally unreliable babysitters to qualify.
• Imagine that unreliable babysitters sold themselves by saying: We have the cheapest LCOB—we only charge $15/hour, while reliable ones charge $20.
  
  Obviously that would be a scam because in practice if you pay for an unreliable babysitter you also need to pay for a reliable one.
• Whether you’re comparing babysitters or sources of electricity, reliability is table stakes.

And yet LCOE—Levelized Cost of Electricity—popularized by the firm Lazard, explicitly excludes “reliability-related considerations”

• By allowing unreliable electricity to qualify as “electricity” or “energy,” LCOE wildly understates the cost of solar and wind. In reality, solar and wind need life support from reliable sources.
  
  The cost of using them is the full system cost, including life support cost.
• The full life-support cost of solar and wind includes the dispatchable power plants that accommodate solar and wind’s unreliability—and the high-density long-distance transmission wires needed to connect faraway solar and wind to nearby grids—and various grid-stabilizing expenses.
• Solar and wind’s life-support costs are large and increase with the percentage of solar and wind use.

References

New York Times – The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think

Guardian – Wind power is cheapest energy, EU analysis finds

IEA – Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020

Lazard – LCOE Report 2021

If Wishes Were Fishes

All of the above are scams.

If wind and solar were cheaper they would not need subsidies and we would have more wind and solar power.

Q: But isn’t China expanding solar?

A: Yes, but China does not care about costs, has a perfect high altitude location, and is not subject to ridiculous US tariffs on solar panels.

Hydropower may be cheaper. And China is again a perfect example.

Hydropower Electricity

On July 23, 2025, SCMP reported China is building the world’s biggest hydropower dam.

On the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau, China envisions a future powered by the roaring waters of the Yarlung Tsangpo, also known as the Brahmaputra. The river will be the site of a mega dam – the world’s most ambitious to date – that promises to bring clean energy, jobs, infrastructure and prosperity to the region.

How big is the mega dam?

The dam will be situated in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo, where a section drops 2,000 metres (6,562 feet) over a 50km (31 miles) stretch, creating immense hydropower potential. The dam is reportedly located in Medog, a remote county in the city of Nyingchi in the Tibet autonomous region.

When completed, the project will overtake the Three Gorges Dam as the world’s largest hydropower dam. It could generate three times more energy with five cascade hydropower stations – an estimated annual capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, more than Britain’s total annual power output.

It is estimated to cost around 1.2 trillion yuan (US$167 billion), dwarfing many of the biggest infrastructure undertakings in modern history at around five times the cost of the Three Gorges Dam and even more expensive than the International Space Station.

But not all hydropower is unproblematic. Lake Powell and Lake Mead in the US are problem examples.

Dams silt up, US water rights are an issue, and water replenishment is an issue. The Brahmaputra damn has none of those issues.

I discussed hydropower on October 27 in Why China Is On a Pace to Win the AI Race

China has three big advantages over the US: cheap electricity, an open source model, and fewer capital needs.

Electricity Costs Are Soaring and AI Will Make Matters Worse

Please note Electricity Costs Are Soaring and AI Will Make Matters Worse

Electricity demand for AI data centers is soaring. The result won’t be pretty.

We should take advantage of cheap hydropower in Canada and be grateful for Canada’s ability to produce steel and aluminum cheaper than we can.

Instead, Trump proposes to make aluminum, copper, and steel manufacturing great again with 50 percent tariffs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:45

Stocks Rebound To Session Highs After Soaring Corporate Layoffs Raise Rate Cut Odds

US equity futures are higher, rebounding from session lows for the second day in a row, amid headlines that layoffs are surging due to AI which in turn is raising odds of a Dec rate cut, with JPM saying that "the market is weighing a weaker labor market and potential spending vs. evidence on the efficacy (and ROI) of AI plus productivity gains." Challenger job cuts jumped to over 150K in October, nearly triple the year-earlier period and the most in more than two decades. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher ahead of the last major earnings day of a season that’s delivered stellar results; Nasdaq futures are also up 0.2%, with Semis catching a bid driven by MRVL (+11%, takeover chatter) and NVDA (up +1.4% after yesterday’s roll on the OpenAI govt backstop headlines). TSLA rose 0.5% ahead of a vote on granting Elon Musk a potential $1 trillion pay package. In the premarket, cyclicals look flat to Defensives, while commodity-related plays are bid. The commodity complex is higher led by Energy and Metals. Asia closed higher (Shanghai +97bps/Hang Seng +2.12%/Nikkei +1.34%) driven by strength in growth/tech/ai names, while Europe is down small (FTSE -25bps/DAX -10bps/CAC -45bps). US 10 year yield down small at 4.13% on quiet macro news as the curve bull steepens, and the USD is weaker. The macro data focus is on Challenger Job Cuts which soared to 153,074K, the highest for October since 20023, and state-level initial jobless claims. Today also brings another heavy dose of earnings (pre-open we get APD, BDX, CMI, COP, H, PENN, PH, RL, ROK, TPR...post-close we get AKAM, CE, EXPE, MCHP, SNDK, TTWO, WYNN), a handful of Fed speakers, the BOE rate decision and TSLA’s annual meeting (which includes voting on Musk’s pay package). Markets also digest the likelihood of the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs after oral arguments yesterday (Goldman expects a ruling in Dec of Jan ’26 // GIR full take).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Tesla (TSLA) +0.6% after the deadline for investors to vote on Elon Musk gargantuan compensation plan expired at midnight (Nvidia +1.4%, Meta +0.8%, Alphabet +0.7%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.03%, Microsoft -0.1%).

• CarMax (KMX) falls 11% after the used car retailer’s board terminated the employment of CEO Bill Nash.
• Coherent (COHR) soars 18% after the semiconductor device company’s results and forecast underlined AI tailwinds.
• DoorDash (DASH) falls 11% after its forecast for fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda fell short of the average analyst estimate at the midpoint.
• Duolingo (DUOL) is down 23% after the language-learning software company gave a weak fourth-quarter bookings forecast. Analysts note that the management’s focus on user growth weighs on the bookings outlook.
• Elf Beauty (ELF) sinks 21% after the cosmetics company’s full-year outlooks for adjusted earnings per share and net sales both missed analysts’ estimates.
• Fastly (FSLY) jumps 19% after the software company’s results and raised full-year revenue forecast showed a strong growth recovery.
• HubSpot (HUBS) falls 10% after the software company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• LegalZoom.com (LZ) rises 27% after the legal services company gave an outlook that is seen as reinforcing positive growth trends, prompting William Blair to upgrade the stock.
• Marvell (MRVL) is up 8% as people familiar say that SoftBank Group Corp. explored a potential takeover of the US chipmaker earlier this year.
• Papa John’s (PZZA) falls 7% after the pizza company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) falls 1.8%, becoming the latest chipmaker to deliver an upbeat forecast and still leave investors underwhelmed.
• Snap (SNAP) surges 19% after the company announced a $400 million partnership with Perplexity AI Inc. to incorporate its AI-powered search engine into Snapchat.
• Stagwell Inc. (STGW) soars 80% after announcing a partnership with Palantir.

Trading this week has been marked by a pullback in the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial-intelligence race, which have powered much of this year’s rally, before dip-buyers stepped in to offer support. Corporate America has continued to deliver robust results, with 82% of the 413 S&P 500 companies reporting this quarter beating earnings expectations, 14% have missed. 

“You stay sane by trying to stay long-term,” Carmignac fund manager Obe Ejikeme told Bloomberg TV. AI “is a megatrend and will pay off over the next five to ten years, no doubt about that. But staying sane is not putting all your eggs in that basket.”

Price action divergence to results continues, even within AI-related momentum sectors. Qualcomm became the latest semiconductor firm to deliver an upbeat forecast that failed to impress investors, while ARM rose on a bullish outlook pointing to an AI chip demand surge.  Meanwhile, semiconductors remain top of mind: Softbank had explored acquiring Marvell earlier in the year to combine it with ARM, in what would have represented the largest semiconductor deal in history. Open AI’s CFO suggested the market should have more ‘exuberance’ for AI’s potential, while hinting the US government could backstop AI financing. 

Caution over lofty tech valuations that weighed on markets earlier in the week continued to linger. Qualcomm, the biggest maker of smartphone chips, became the latest semiconductor firm to issue an upbeat forecast that failed to impress investors, sending its shares 1.8% lower. 

Treasuries rebounded after the latest Challenger job cuts jumped to over 150K in October, nearly triple the year-earlier period and the most for the month in more than two decades. YTD job cuts have exceeded 1M, the most since the pandemic. The yield on 10-year notes fell two basis points to 4.14%, while the dollar headed for its biggest drop in three weeks.

Traders will also weigh the implications of the US Supreme Court hinting it is ready to put significant limits on Trump’s far-reaching agenda, adding to uncertain sentiment. US layoffs remain a focus too, with October seeing the most job cuts in more than two decades. US shutdown impact is spreading to aviation with plans to cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers. 

Following days of mixed signals from Fed officials and scant economic data during the longest US government shutdown in history, investors will also closely watch a slate of policymaker speeches Thursday for clues on the interest-rate outlook. The Bank of England held interest rates at 4% in a five-to-four vote that laid the groundwork for a December cut. The pound pared gains of as much as 0.4% against the dollar. Gilts rose across the curve, with the two-year yield down three basis points to 3.76%.

Traders have gradually trimmed bets on a quarter-point rate cut next month to around 50% over the past week, before the job-cuts report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. bumped those odds back up to 60%. Still, “the overall nudge pressure is up for yields,” wrote Padhraic Garvey and Michiel Tukker at ING. “This, of course, partly reflects the ‘driving in the fog’ metaphor for the government shutdown, but also with a dose of inflation concern and a pinch of risk-on ebullience.”

Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% with construction underperforming and miners rising. Legrand shares sank as demand for data center infrastructure started to ebb. The construction and insurance sectors are among the biggest laggards, while mining and telecom shares outperform. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Novo shares rise as much as 3.9% after a judge denied Pfizer’s request to temporarily block the Danish drugmaker’s $10 billion bid to acquire the obesity startup Metsera, saying the US pharmaceutical company’s objections to the deal don’t warrant a delay.
• Rheinmetall shares rise as much as 3.1% after the German defense firm maintained its guidance for the full year in a move Bernstein said could reassure investors who had expected a softer quarter.
• Sainsbury shares rise as much as 1.7% as the British retailer increased its full-year profit guidance to exceed the £1 billion set out in previous updates.
• Deutsche Post shares gain as much as 6.7% after the logistics company reported earnings well ahead of expectations, a performance analysts say was aided by its tight cost control.
• Novonesis shares jump as much as 8.2% after the Danish maker of industrial enzymes reported better-than-expected organic sales growth for the third quarter and lifted the bottom of its forecast range for the full year.
• Adecco climbs as much as 11% after third-quarter results which analysts view as “strong across the board.”
• DiaSorin falls as much as 16% after the Italian medical-diagnostics company lowered its guidance for the year and delivered third-quarter results below expectations.
• Legrand drops as much as 13% after its third-quarter missed expectations and full-year guidance was left unchanged.
• Air France-KLM shares slide as much as 14%, the steepest drop in three years. The airline group reported a miss on Ebit in the third quarter, driven by lower-than-expected unit revenue.
• HelloFresh shares fall as much as 15% after Grizzly Research published a report on the meal-kit company.
• Wise shares drop as much as 9.9%, slumping to a seven-month low, after the payments company reported a sharp drop in underlying pretax profit in the first half.
• Teleperformance drops as much as 8.6% after lowering its guidance for the full year, citing “an increasingly volatile business environment.”
• Worldline shares lost as much as 12%, erasing an earlier advance, after the digital payment company announced a share sale and provided a weak outlook for 2026.
• Maersk shares fall as much as 7.5% after the Danish shipping giant reported its latest earnings.

Earlier, Asian stocks climbed the most in over a week, as dip buyers lifted technology shares after a two-day selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.2%, its biggest advance since Oct. 27, with TSMC, Tencent and SK hynix among the key boosts to the gauge’s gain. Shares advanced in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. Indian stocks were steady.  The rebound underscores investors’ continued confidence in the long-term potential of artificial intelligence, even as concerns over stretched valuations and market concentration linger. The risk-on sentiment was also helped by the positive mood from Wall Street as dip-buyers emerge. 

In FX, the dollar is weaker following the surprise release of Challenger job data, showing the worst October for cuts since 2003. Krone is the strongest G-10 currency after Norges Bank kept rates on hold and reiterated the pace of reductions will be slow. Sterling higher, gilts slightly underperforming ahead of the Bank of England decision, also expected to be a hold.

In rates, yields are 2bp-3bp lower across the curve led by intermediates, with 5s30s spread steeper by around 1bp supported by soft job cuts data and gains for gilts after Bank of England’s 5-4 decision to hold rates at 4%, with dissenters preferring a cut. US 10-year yields near 4.12% is about 4bp lower on the day; UK counterpart had a steep 3bp drop after Bank of England rate announcement.

In commodities, gold prices rising and back above $4,000/oz. Oil prices jumping too, with Brent futures up 0.7% and about $64/barrel.

Looking to the day ahead, the main highlight will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision. There’s also plenty of speakers, including ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kocher, Schnabel, Villeroy, Nagel and Lane, along with the Fed’s Williams, Barr, Hammack, Waller and Musalem. On the data side, we’ll get German industrial production and Euro Area retail sales for September. The US economic calendar — including 3Q preliminary productivity and unit labor costs, weekly jobless claims and September wholesale trade — will be empty again as US government data continue to be postponed by the govt shutdown. ConocoPhillips, DataDog, Ralph Lauren and Warner Bros Discovery are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Conoco is expected to post its worst third-quarter profit in four years amid lower crude prices brought on by higher output globally. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini 0.2%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed,
• DAX little changed,
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.14%
• VIX little changed at 17.97
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1223.31,
• euro +0.2% at $1.1515
• WTI crude +0.7% at $60.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates. Companies last month announced 153,074 job cuts, nearly triple the number during the same month last year. BBG
• 8 centrist Democrats in the Senate could be prepared to vote in favor of reopening the government, but they are receiving pushback from more progressive corners of the party. The Hill
• Senate Democrats ended their workday Tuesday agonizing over what to do about the record-setting government shutdown. Many of those same lawmakers woke up Wednesday morning ready to fight on following Tuesday’s party success. The sweeping democratic gains in this week’s election has bolstered party senators insisting democrats dig in and force Republicans to accede to their demand for an extension of key health insurance subsidies. Politico
• Trump and Hill Republicans are now in completely different places on the political impacts of this seemingly endless shutdown: Punchbowl
• Trump said regarding the US shutdown, that it was a big factor in elections, while he does not think Democrats will act soon on the shutdown, and does not think it will be sorted soon. Trump reiterated the call to kill the filibuster and reopen the government immediately.
• The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers, with some justices suggesting he’d overstepped his authority. Yet even if the duties are struck down, the president has other legal options, leaving companies and countries in limbo. BBG
• President Trump has recently expressed reservations to top aides about launching military action to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, fearing that strikes might not compel the autocrat to step down. WSJ
• U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Wednesday that he would order a 10% cut in flights at 40 major U.S. airports, citing air traffic control safety concerns as a government shutdown hit a record 36th day. RTRS
• China has issued dollar bonds at rates equivalent to US Treasury yields, in what bankers on the deal said was the first time Beijing’s borrowing costs has matched Washington’s. the bond offering is the latest example of countries taking advantage of being able to issue international debt cheaply, as their borrowing costs in relation to US Treasuries fall to some of the lowest levels on record. FT
• Japan’s underlying wage growth remained steady in September, keeping the BOJ on track for policy tightening. One of Japan’s largest labor union groups said it plans to push for a 6% pay bump next year. BBG
• The Bank of England held interest rates at 4% in a five-to-four vote that laid the groundwork for a December cut. The pound pared gains of as much as 0.4% against the dollar. Gilts rose across the curve, with the two-year yield down three basis points to 3.76%: BBG
• The Fed finalized new standards for grading large banks and said that the new large bank supervisory standards are substantially similar to changes proposed in July.

Trade/Tariffs

• China bought two cargoes of around 120,000 tons of US wheat for December shipment, according to traders cited by Reuters. It was also reported that the US Grains and Bioproducts Council Chairman said a US sorghum shipment was sent to China last week.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan will consider specific ways for Japan and the US to advance cooperation in the development of rare earth mining in waters around Minamitori Island.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry, on semiconductor flows, says China is committed to stability and security of global chip industry; will approve relevant export license applications of qualified Chinese exporters.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks were higher as the region took impetus from the rebound on Wall St, where all major indices gained amid dip buying and following stronger-than-expected ADP and ISM Services data releases. ASX 200 eked mild gains amid strength in miners, but with the upside limited as the top-weighted financials sector lagged after Big Four bank NAB reported a decline in full-year profit. Nikkei 225 rebounded from the prior day's selling and briefly reclaimed the 51,000 level before paring some of its gains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp benefitted from the improving US-China trade ties after China’s Commerce Ministry suspended the unreliable entity list announced in April and adjusted its export control lists, while there were comments from US President Trump who reiterated that Chinese President Xi is a good friend.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi looks to finalise an economic stimulus package to address inflation by late November and pass a supplementary budget to fund it, with some in the government eyeing a cost of over JPY 10tln, according to Nikkei.
• Japan Innovation Party co-leader Fujita said an early BoJ rate hike may give a mixed signal to businesses, while he added it is not a time for BoJ moves that have a big impact and they will not raise taxes to fund an earlier defence budget jump.
• One of Japan's largest labour unions, UA Zensen, is reportedly planning to push for a 6% wage hike for regular workers in next year's talks, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened modestly lower and have traded with a negative bias throughout the European morning. Nothing really behind the sentiment today, but with traders mindful of looming US data and the BoE policy decision. European sectors are mixed; Banks take the top spot, joined closely by Retail and then Real Estate. To the downside, Construction & Materials lags, followed by Insurance. In terms of key movers; AstraZeneca (U/C, strong headline metrics), Maersk (-5.2%, strong Q3 metrics but faces "challenging" 2026), Commerzbank (-2.5%, boosts outlook but Net Income not so strong).

Top European News

• ECB's Schnabel says quantitative normalisation is proceeding smoothly, with strong liquidity positions of banks and abundant excess liquidity; on new structural portfolio, says factors suggest tilting the structure towards shorter-dated assets. "policy stance neutrality, the need to maintain policy space and considerations related to financial soundness are important factors that will guide the maturity of assets the ECB will buy under a new structural securities portfolio. These factors suggest tilting the structure towards shorter-dated assets."
• ECB's de Guindos states slight optimism on growth; adds that inflation news is positive. More optimistic on services inflation. Evolution of wages are fully aligned with projections. The level of uncertainty is huge. Comfortable with the current level of rates. Undershooting of inflation will be temporary. No discussion on modifying QT.
• Norges Bank keeps rates unchanged at 4.00%, as expected; Governor Bache says, "The job of overcoming inflation is not complete, and we are in no hurry to lower interest rates".

FX

• DXY is softer following rangebound trade, with a surprise early release of the US Challenger job cuts data prompted a cleaner breach back under 100.00, with the current intraday range between 99.89 - 100.11, and compared to yesterday's 100.06-100.36 range. Challenger October US Job Cuts jump 175.3% to a 7-month high at 153.074k (prev. 54.064k in September), according to Bloomberg. The release led to some upside in T-note futures and downside in the USD. On the tariff front, the US Supreme Court yesterday sharply questioned President Trump’s broad use of emergency powers to impose global tariffs, although this risk event is likely to be a slow burner, touted to end in Q1/Q2 2026, while ING's baseline is that tariffs will stay regardless of the ruling.
• EUR is slightly firmer against the USD, largely amid USD weakness, whilst little action was seen following a variety of comments from ECB's Schnabel and de Guindos, and largely pessimistic Construction PMI. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1490-1.1524 intraday range, with traders also cognizant of the converging 50 DMA (1.1670) and 100 DMA (1.1664).
• USD/JPY faded some of the prior day's advances and gave back the 154.00 status following an acceleration in wages, with USD weakness further weighing on the pair in early European hours. Aside from that, there is little else to mention for the JPY, with the pair comfortably tucked within yesterday's 152.96-154.35 range. Furthermore, one of Japan's largest labour unions, UA Zensen, is reportedly planning to push for a 6% wage hike for regular workers in next year's talks, according to Bloomberg.
• Sterling in focus as the clock ticks down to the Bank of England rate decision, minutes, and MPR are due at 12:00GMT/07:00EST, with the press conference at 12:30GMT/07:30EST. The MPC is expected to keep the Bank Rate at 4.0%, likely via a 6-3 vote, with focus on any signals regarding future easing. Despite softer-than-expected September inflation, elevated Y/Y CPI is expected to keep policymakers on hold, though three members may favour a cut. GBP/USD resides in a current 1.3042-1.3089 range after topping yesterday's peak at 1.3054.
• Diverging as the AUD/NZD cross rises above 1.1500 from a 1.1486 intraday low, with the AUD propped up by the base metals and the NZD hampered by cautious RBNZ commentary. Overnight, RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said he doesn’t think they are out of the worst on global trade tensions, while he added the labour market has deteriorated, which is something they anticipated. AUD/USD resides in a 0.6497-0.6518 range and is still some way off its 100 DMA (0.6539). NZD/USD is contained in a 0.5651-0.5669 range at the time of writing.
• EUR/NOK stopped just shy of its 100 DMA (11.7519) following the policy decision by Norges Bank, which opted to keep rates steady at 4.00% as expected. The Bank largely reiterated the statement from the prior meeting, suggesting that "no information has been received that indicates that the outlook for the Norwegian economy has changed significantly since the September policy meeting".
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0865 vs exp. 7.1222 (Prev. 7.0901)
• Brazilian Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB evaluated that maintaining the interest rate at the current level for a very prolonged period is enough to ensure convergence of inflation to the target. Furthermore, it said that future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, and it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.

Fixed Income

• USTs are contained overnight as newsflow at the time was relatively limited and participants awaited a packed docket of Fed speak, texts are expected from Williams (voter) and Paulson (2026). Spent the morning near enough unchanged and just above the 112-10 session low. Thereafter, a bout of support was seen for havens generally around the European cash equity open; potential drivers include the Israeli comments on Egypt. Thereafter, the docket ahead was lightened by an early release of October’s Challenger job cuts. Printed at 153k (prev. 54k), to a seven-month high. This added to the modest strength seen in USTs and took them to a 112-18 high with gains of eight ticks at best. A print that has added a little bit of dovishness back into Fed pricing, though the odds of a 25bps cut in December remain at around 65% after losing the 70% handle yesterday following ADP and ISM Services. Markets see more job market indicators today via the Chicago Fed BLS unemployment forecast and the latest Revelio statistics.
• Bunds initial action was similar to that outlined above in USTs. Bunds spent the first part of the day holding near enough unchanged and just above the 129.03 opening mark. Thereafter, a pickup occurred around the European cash equity open before a 129.18 peak printed alongside Challenger; again, detailed in USTs above. Prior to this, an interesting speech from ECB’s Schnabel, where she said there are factors that are suggestive of tilting the structure of the ECB’s portfolio towards shorter-dated assets, but no move in Bunds at the time. Construction PMIs passed without impact this morning. Ahead, traders look to the referenced US events before remarks from ECB’s Nagel and Chief Economist Lane; particularly regarding the ECB’s portfolio, in light of Schnabel. No move to supply from Spain and France this morning. Overall, the auctions were well received with the long-dated French metric in particular garnering strength, a welcome sign amid the ongoing political turmoil.
• Gilts opened firmer by around 15 ticks and then quickly extended a handful more to a 93.33 high, a move that acknowledged the modest bullish action seen at the time, as outlined above. Price action for Gilts was a little more pronounced than that seen in peers, nothing too significant behind this but potentially a function of the relative underperformance seen in Gilts vs Bunds for much of Wednesday and/or positioning into the BoE. The BoE is expected to maintain the policy rate at 4.00%, though the decision will almost certainly be subject to dissent; expectations are broadly for either 7-2 or 6-3, however a split where Governor Bailey has to cast the deciding vote cannot be ruled out.
• Spain sells EUR 4.503bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 3.00% 2033, 1.85% 2035, 3.50% 2041 Bono & EUR 0.534bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 IL Bono.

Crude

• Crude benchmarks have pared back on Wednesday’s losses following comments from Israeli Defense Minister Katz and sellers failing to extend through the lows of the 7-day range. After testing prior support lows, crude benchmarks sold off, reversing APAC gains, and troughed at USD 59.46/bbl and 63.37/bbl. However, this selloff was short-lived and benchmarks bid higher to a peak of 60.51/bbl and 64.34/bbl respectively. Saudi Arabia cut its December Light Crude OSP to Asia, in line with expectations. This confirms that the kingdom is comfortable with Brent prices holding between USD 60-65/bbl. Slight downticks were seen in crude benchmarks but move wasn’t sustained.
• Spot XAU has followed on from Wednesday’s gains as the yellow metal continues to consolidate following its 11% selloff from ATHs. XAU dipped to a trough of USD 3964/oz early in the APAC session but reversed higher and extended through Wednesday’s high at USD 3990/oz as the European session risk sentiment started off weak. Currently, the yellow metal is trading near session highs at USD 4017/oz. A surprising Challenger Layoff release had little impact on spot gold action.
• Base metals are trading mixed, with iron ore continuing to sell off as China steel industry heads into the low season while copper gains following risk-on tone during the APAC session. 3M LME Copper dipped to a low of USD 10.69k/t before driving higher as it followed the CME Copper bid back above USD 5/lb. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.79k/t and remains in a c. USD 40/t band near session highs.
• Saudi Arabia set the December Light Crude OSP to Asia to + USD 1.00/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average (prev. + USD 2.20), to Europe at + USD 1.35/bbl vs ICE Brent (prev. +1.35), and to US at + USD 3.20/bbl vs ASCI (prev. + USD 3.70).

Geopolitics

• "Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz: Declaring war on smuggling operations through drones on our border with Egypt", according to Al Jazeera; "ordered the border area with Egypt to be turned into a closed military zone", via Iran International
• US President Trump warned the Nigerian government that they had better move fast to stop the killing of Christians.
• US President Trump recently expressed reservations to top aides about launching military action to oust Venezuelan President Maduro, fearing that strikes might not compel Maduro to step down, according to sources cited by WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity, est. 3.35%, prior 3.3%
• 8:30 am: 3Q P Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.85%, prior 1%
• 8:30 am: Nov 1 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225k
• 8:30 am: Oct 25 Continuing Claims, est. 1948k
• 10:00 am: Sep F Wholesale Inventories MoM

Central Bank Speakers

• 11:00 am: Fed’s Williams speaks at Goethe University Frankfurt
• 11:00 am: Fed’s Barr Participates in Moderated Discussion
• 12:00 pm: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at the Economic Club of New York
• 3:30 pm: Fed’s Waller in Panel on Central Banking and Payments
• 4:30 pm: Fed’s Paulson speaks on Consumer Finance Institute
• 5:30 pm: Fed’s Musalem Speaks at a Fireside Chat on Monetary Policy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The risk-on tone has returned to markets over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.37%) recovering from the previous day’s selloff. The main driver was stronger-than-expected data, alongside growing speculation that the government shutdown might come to an end soon. So that helped to boost investor optimism about the near-term outlook, with risk assets doing well across the board. Indeed, US HY spreads (-9bps) tightened for the first time in a week, and Bitcoin (+3.38%) stabilised after its losses in recent days. Moreover, that trend has continued overnight, with several indices in Asia seeing strong gains, including the Nikkei (+1.48%) and the Hang Seng (+1.61%).

That US data was pivotal for the market recovery, as it pushed back against the building narrative about an economic slowdown, particularly after the weaker ISM manufacturing print on Monday. First, we had the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which showed private payrolls were up by +42k in October (vs. +30k expected), which was a clear rebound from the -29k contraction in September. That’s a release that’s taken on more significance than usual, given we’re missing the usual jobs report because of the shutdown. Then shortly after, we had the ISM Services index for October, which rose by more than expected to 52.4 (vs. 50.8 expected). So again, that reassured investors that the US outlook was more resilient than feared, and we even saw the new orders subcomponent rise to a 12-month high of 56.2 (vs. 51.0 expected).

Those prints meant investors dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts in the months ahead. Moreover, there was fresh momentum in that direction from the prices paid component of the ISM services, which ticked up to 70.0. That now takes it to levels last seen in late-2022, back when the Fed were rapidly hiking rates to clamp down on inflation. So that added to concerns about tariff-driven inflation, and investors felt it made future cuts less likely. For instance, the likelihood of a rate cut in December fell from 70% to 62% by the close, and if we look further out, the number of cuts priced by December 2026 fell -6.0bps on the day to 77bps. So that meant Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+5.5bps) rising to 3.63%, whilst the 10yr yield (+7.4bps) moved up to 4.16%.

In the meantime, there were also fresh headlines on the government shutdown, as speculation continued as to whether some sort of deal might be reached. Notably, the Washington Post reported yesterday that around a dozen Senate Democrats were considering voting to end the shutdown, saying that a bipartisan group was working on a deal.

According to the article, it said that Republicans would agree in return to hold a vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies. But later in the day, there was a Politico article saying that the Democratic wins in the elections had boosted those arguing they should dig in. So the Polymarket chances have moved around considerably, although they still point to a 50% chance that the shutdown ends by November 15.

On the tariffs, the Supreme Court heard arguments yesterday in the case against Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which were previously ruled invalid by the lower courts. The questioning left a sense of key justices suggesting that the President may have overstepped his authority with this use of emergency powers. For instance, the Polymarket odds that the Supreme Court would rule in favour of the IEEPA tariffs declined from 38% to 25%. However, even if the current broad tariffs are ruled invalid, the details of the ruling and which alternative avenues the administration end up pursuing will be important for the eventual tariff outcome.

This backdrop proved to be a positive one for equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.37%) recovering from its selloff the previous day, though it did give up about half of the day’s gains in the final hour of trading. And while the Magnificent 7 (+0.88%) outperformed, it was a good day all round, as the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +1.54%, and more than 60% of the S&P 500 were higher on the day. Meanwhile in Europe, there was a similarly positive trend, which was reinforced by the final PMIs from across the continent. Indeed, the Euro Area composite PMI was revised up to 52.5 (vs. flash 52.2), leaving the reading at a two-year high. So that helped the STOXX 600 (+0.23%) to advance, alongside gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.64%) and the DAX (+0.42%). But the risk-on move didn’t extend to commodities, as Brent crude (-1.43%) fell to a two-week low of $63.52/bbl as the focus again shifted to emergent excess oil supply , whilst gold (+1.21%) recovered most of Tuesday’s losses.

Overnight in Asia, the equity rally has continued, with the major indices advancing across the region. That’s been clear across the board, with gains for the Nikkei (+1.48%), the Hang Seng (+1.61%), the CSI 300 (+1.23%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.86%), and the KOSPI (+1.44%). However, US and European equity futures are broadly steady this morning, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.02%) and the DAX (+0.02%) currently little changed.

Looking forward, a key focus today will be on the Bank of England’s latest policy decision, which is being announced at 12:00 London time. The consensus and market pricing is expecting rates to stay on hold at 4%, but at time of writing markets are pricing in a 26% probability of a 25bp cut, so there’s a bit of uncertainty in market pricing. In his preview, our UK economist also expects a hold, but his call is now finely balanced, and he thinks the case for a 25bp rate cut has strengthened materially after a dovish round of data. Ahead of that, sovereign bond yields moved higher across Europe, in line with the moves for US Treasuries. Gilts saw the biggest increase, with 10yr yields up +3.8bps on the day, but there were also increases for yields on 10yr bunds (+1.9bps), OATs (+1.9bps) and BTPs (+2.2bps).

To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision. There’s also plenty of speakers, including ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kocher, Schnabel, Villeroy, Nagel and Lane, along with the Fed’s Williams, Barr, Hammack, Waller and Musalem. On the data side, we’ll get German industrial production and Euro Area retail sales for September.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:33

Pirates Attack Tanker Off Somalia Coast 

Maritime journal Lloyd's List reported early Thursday that the Malta-flagged tanker Hellas Aphrodite was boarded by suspected pirates off the Somali coast. This maritime incident comes just days after another attempted hijacking of a commercial vessel in the region. 

Pirates have boarded Malta-flagged Hellas Aphrodite, a product tanker, off the Somali coast just days after a near miss in the same region pic.twitter.com/PEeuTbIrUO

— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) November 6, 2025

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed a small vessel "fired small arms and RPGs" and "unauthorised personnel" boarded the tanker hauling gasoline about 560 nautical miles off the southeast of Eyl, Somalia. 

Lloyd's List noted, "An unsuccessful attempt to board a Stolt-Nielsen tanker off Somalia on Monday is unlikely to be an isolated incident with growing evidence of a resurgent piracy threat building with links to al-Shabaab and the Houthis."

Lloyd's List reported that an unsuccessful attempt to board a Stolt-Nielsen tanker off Somalia on Monday is unlikely to be an isolated incident with growing evidence of a resurgent piracy threat building with links to al-Shabaab and the Houthis https://t.co/aFFLRZqyyn

— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) November 6, 2025

Greek news outlet Enikos reported that Latsco Marine Management, which operates the Hellas Aphrodite, confirmed all 24 crew members are safe and accounted for. The situation remains ongoing.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:25

Judge Orders Prosecutors To Turn Over Evidence Against James Comey

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Nov. 5 ordered prosecutors from the Department of Justice (DOJ) to hand over evidence in its case against former FBI Director James Comey.

Magistrate Judge William Fitzpatrick gave the DOJ until the end of Thursday to provide Comey’s attorneys with grand jury materials, along with other evidence related to the case. Comey’s attorneys told the court that they had no access to relevant evidence that had been collected years ago as part of an FBI probe into media leaks.

The DOJ alleges that Comey lied to Congress in 2020 during a hearing in which he said he had not “authorized someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous source in news reports.”

Comey has pleaded not guilty and filed a motion to dismiss his case as “selective and vindictive” prosecution. He argues that the case was brought in retaliation for his role in the Crossfire Hurricane investigation, in which President Donald Trump was falsely accused of colluding with Russia to steal the 2016 election.

His attorneys argued in a court filing that the Trump administration declined to prosecute other individuals who allegedly lied to Congress, saying it was because they were his political allies.

Judge Fitzpatrick, during Wednesday’s hearing, questioned whether the prosecution may have acted too hastily to indict Comey.

“The procedural posture of this case is highly unusual,” he said.

The judge asked the DOJ to provide Comey’s defense team with evidence seized from his former attorney, Daniel Richman, in 2019 and 2020.

The DOJ alleges that Comey repeatedly leaked information to the media through Richman for years, in contradiction of his statement to Congress that he never authorized any leaks.

Comey’s attorneys say his statement to Congress was only in regard to a specific question about authorizing leaks through former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

In addition to materials from the Richman investigation, the judge has ordered prosecutors to produce grand jury transcripts.

Comey’s is one of several high-profile cases recently filed against Trump’s former political opponents.

New York Attorney General Letitia James, who ran for office on a promise to investigate Trump, was indicted in October on charges of mortgage fraud. James sued Trump in 2022, accusing him and his business associates of overvaluing property in order to secure more favorable business loan rates.

New York Supreme Court Manhattan Judge Arthur Engoron ruled against Trump in 2024, fining him $364 million, an amount with interest that rose to more than $500 million. The fine was vacated by a New York appeals court in August.

The FBI also raided the home of former national security adviser John Bolton in Bethesda, Maryland, on Aug. 22.

Bolton, who frequently criticized the president, was indicted in October on charges of leaking classified documents.

The administration has faced criticism over the indictments of Comey and James, since U.S. Attorney Erik Siebert left his position after refusing to bring charges against either of them.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:25

Deeply-Divided Bank Of England Leaves Rates Unchanged, Warns Of "AI Bubble"

The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 4.0% this morning, opting against a cut (as the market expected) ahead of the UK government's annual budget this month (which is expected to feature tax hikes).

"We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our two-percent target before we cut them again," BoE governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement following the widely-expected decision.

The decision was very tight as policymakers including Bailey voted 5-4 to maintain the rate.

Four members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) called for a cut to 3.75 percent.

The BoE last cut its key rate in August amid concerns over the impact of US tariffs on the UK economy.

Importantly, the minutes of the meeting noted that “overall the risks [to the inflation outlook] are now more balanced” but that more evidence is needed. The last reference essentially conditions the next interest cut to further progress in the data.

As regards the forward guidance, the MPC left the overall message broadly unchanged but did change the wording by removing “careful” and now saying that “[i]f progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path.”

Interestingly, while the BoE's guidance is dovish, its forecasts continue to have an inflation overshoot for the whole of next year and into 2027 - CPI is seen at 2.5% in Q4 2026 and 2.0% in Q4 2027 2.0%, based on market rates.

The BoE's December meeting is definitely in play based on Governor Bailey's comment:

"The downside scenario seems more likely. It could help explain the elevated saving rate, and Agents’ intelligence on uncertainty. Rather than cutting Bank Rate now, I would prefer to wait and see if the durability in disinflation is confirmed in upcoming economic developments this year. Current market pricing is close to the path suggested by a forward-looking Taylor rule, which is a fair description of my position at present".

OIS pricing for the December meeting has moved to around 16.5bp, from around 11bp priced before the decision (or a 66% chance of a cut.

Cable strengthened on the 'hold'...

Finallym, during his press conference, Bailey also weighed in on the frothy valuations in stock markets, led by US tech stocks and the AI megatrend, saying that “we could have an AI bubble” and that is being watched closely for any implications on financial stability.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:15

Silicon Valley's Growing Anti-Woke, Pro-Abundance Rebellion

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

To paraphrase and utterly subvert one of Karl Marx’s best-known quotes, a “spectre” is haunting Silicon Valley—the spectre of authentic abundance. All the powers of woke California have entered into an unholy alliance to exorcise this spectre: public sector unions, the environmentalist lobby, the crony capitalists, Antifa radicals, and Reddit trolls.

They’re going to lose. For all the power the state’s ruling unholy alliance still wields with its “No Kings” populism, its partisan Prop. 50 redistricting, and its absolute grip on state and local governance, it is now in conflict with a far greater historical and cultural momentum. Innate to California and irrepressible, the forces of innovation and creativity that have defined the state for nearly two hundred years are asserting themselves in new domains. Authentic abundance is on the way, and nothing can stop it.

It’s about time. For decades, with an intensity that exploded during the first Trump presidency and crested during the Biden administration, liberals and progressives and woke ideologues have exercised sway over the valley. But through it all, their core message was always anathema to the entrepreneurial spirit that defined the culture. Because the core message of woke is NO. This core message is psychological—you will be sensitive, you will respect the paradigm of oppression—but it is also physical: energy rationing, water rationing, i.e., embrace scarcity.

For a while, the unholy alliance was indulged. As long as Silicon Valley remained a destination where a brilliant engineer could show up from anywhere on earth with an idea that could change the world, the slow infiltration of woke scolds into their growing corporations was tolerable. The dazzling and sudden wealth, the amazing breakthroughs, the sheer excitement of being in the technology epicenter of the world—these perks overshadowed the growing encroachment. But they went too far.

The anti-woke rebellion, now well underway, was bound to happen. The foundation of Silicon Valley culture is the power of lone individuals with big ideas and big brains, individuals with tunnel vision and uncontainable drive. That’s what it takes to change the world, and for every successful company founder, the valley was littered with the remains of fallen competitors. It was, and is, one of the most ruthlessly competitive expressions of pure capitalism the world has ever seen. And it delivered, decade after decade.

The cliches that help define Silicon Valley are accurate ways to describe how the people working there think and what they have accomplished. Better, faster, cheaper. Moore’s Law (the principle that the speed and capability of computers can be expected to double every two years). Creative destruction. The “unicorn” chase (building a company to a $1 billion valuation). Hustle culture. Tech bros. Synergy.

On the surface, these phrases seem shallow. Except they are a way of life. And the results speak for themselves. The transistor. The chip. The mainframe, the mini, the workstation, the PC, the laptop, the internet, the iPhone, the smartphone, and AI. In less than one lifetime, we traversed that landscape. The world will never be the same.

But suddenly, a glitch has appeared in the matrix. If every high-tech product has become better, faster, and cheaper, why is everything else so expensive? Why can’t we produce cheap energy, deliver abundant and affordable water, and produce homes that people with average incomes can afford and want to live in? Why is it that a flat-screen television is dirt cheap, while owning a modest home is now completely out of reach for almost every young married couple in America?

It’s about time the titans of Silicon Valley turned their attention to these challenges. Steps along the way have been eye-openers. A few years ago, a group of Silicon Valley investors came together to acquire land and build new homes—an entirely new community—on huge tracts of underutilized land north of San Francisco. What could possibly go wrong? The proposal would have increased the housing supply in a region enduring a desperate shortage of new homes. It was situated near a major freeway corridor, within commuting range of San Francisco. They were going to do everything right, with sustainably sourced water and electricity, a generous percentage of low-income housing, energy-efficient smart buildings, and provisions for mass transit. Wouldn’t everyone want this to happen? It would be a slam dunk!

And then reality intervened. Every public entity remotely within the footprint of the planned community had demands, mostly impossible to meet, delivered by politicians whose campaign benefactors were the perennially powerful public sector unions. Every landowner who didn’t want to see their rural lifestyle disrupted gained disproportionate support from environmentalist litigators, brilliantly exploiting every one of California’s nearly infinite array of environmental laws and regulations.

So much for abundant housing, because the only thing the unholy alliance produces in abundance is new home-killing regulations and litigation. It afflicts aspiring builders everywhere in California. Pay. Pay more. Wait. Wait some more. Lose. Try again, and lose again. Give up. Go to Texas, where they still want homebuilders.

What about abundant energy? This, too, is unavailable, despite the billions that Silicon Valley investors are prepared to spend on data centers to process AI queries to, you know, cure disease, guarantee national security, save the world, and make sure any random inquirer can know which episode of Miami Vice included the song “Red Rain.” But instead of converting these deliverables into reality, investors must contend with a state determined to achieve “net zero” by 2045, a state that wants to electrify the entire economy and yet is mired in regulations that won’t even fast-track approval of energy solutions that are “carbon-free.”

As for water, options are limited, to put it mildly. Desalination? Gotta go through the Coastal Commission, so… forget it. Surface reservoirs? The long-promised Sites Reservoir, allegedly a major reservoir project that is close to actually getting built, remains mired in procedural delays and litigation even as its lead proponents continue to assiduously attend conferences to smile, shake hands, and prosper off the process instead of the result. What about wastewater recycling? Sure, but you’ll still spend 10-20 years just getting approval to begin construction.

It almost should go without saying that the woke culture that scuttled James Damore’s career at Google was not going to last. Nor was the whole infrastructure of parasitic human resources departments that large tech corporations were forced to create in order to elevate their percentage of diversity hires to acceptable regulatory norms. The founders of these mega companies did everything they were told to do by the woke. Until they didn’t.

The last straw wasn’t the unholy alliance demanding adherence to the oppressor vs. oppressed paradigm, enforced by parasitic HR departments. That annoyance just put the last straw into context and ensured that once it came, a more comprehensive realignment would ensue. But the last straw, which violated every core principle that ever animated a genuine entrepreneur, was when they realized how California’s ruling class had basically outlawed production of more energy, water, housing, and every other physical essential that requires so much as a scratch in the earth.

Not lost on Silicon Valley’s awakened entrepreneurs was that, at the same time as the unholy alliance is making abundance more impossible than ever to achieve, they’ve adopted “abundance” as a new weapon in their rhetorical arsenal. It isn’t working. The insincerity is brazen, and the backlash is undiminished.

Now, the notion not of “abundance” as a campaign buzzword, but as authentic, actual abundance, stalks the conference rooms and Zoom calls and animates discussions in the valley with a fervor that was previously restricted to code and chip design. We will have affordable homes. We will have abundant energy. We are not going to accept inadequate supplies of water. We have found a new frontier to conquer, and we will not lose.

A wonderful driver of Silicon Valley’s rising abundance culture and the evolving political philosophy that constitutes its true ideological foundation can be found in the articulate ravings of a relatively new publication, Pirate Wires. The insouciance of this publication had print magazine predecessors in the previous generation. Mondo 2000. Upside. Wired. The Red Herring. But those first translations of Silicon Valley energy into Silicon Valley culture were ahead of their time and mostly apolitical. It took politically contrived scarcity hitting home, combined with woke overreach, for voices to emerge that not only had an edge but also moved way beyond chips and code.

In a rebuttal to the ersatz, limited vision of abundance promoted by liberals Klein and Johnson in their recent bestseller “Abundance,” Pirate Wires editor Mike Solana wrote an essay, “The Abundance Delusion.” Published by The Atlantic last summer, it is a masterpiece. Solana has given us a Jetsonesque vision of the future. It is a beautiful, utterly uninhibited, uncompromising paeon to a Tomorrowland that Silicon Valley has both the wealth and the brainpower to deliver, and the sooner, the better. Here is my favorite paragraph from this work of art:

“I want a bullet train that rips across the country from San Francisco to New York in half a day. I want to take that ride in a first-class cabin, with a little bar car somewhere onboard where I can talk shit with strangers over martinis as we travel through the Rockies. Fuck it, let’s throw in a robot bartender. I want genetically modified hydroponic gardens. I want special economic zones for manufacturing, for rare-earth-metals mining and processing, for rocketry and electric vehicles, and every other high-tech project you can think of, a reality in which Americans are liberated from local regulations that kneecap our industrial output—a reality in which our capacity is limited only by our imagination. I want gene drives, which means the eradication of invasive Burmese pythons in the Florida wetlands, the screwworm, and pretty much all mosquitoes. I want weather modification. I want geoengineering. I want to terraform Mars into a habitable world. I want a giant “Justice” statue, to complement the East Coast’s “Liberty,” on Alcatraz Island. I want this statue to depict an objectively hot person. Finally, the Moon should be a state, and no I won’t be taking any further questions.”

Having been a big fan of Pirate Wires for over a year, I can say with reasonable confidence that while these guys are clearly having a roaring good time, they are not playing. Something epic is happening in Silicon Valley today. It is a seismic shift, and it is long overdue. We are on the cusp of an urban renaissance that will be enabled by technology; it is going to be insanely excellent, and this new, even more expansive iteration of Silicon Valley is going to catalyze its progress.

This vision of the future is as optimistic and realistic as it is contagious and inspiring. We will expand our cities underground to accommodate infrastructure and transportation, and communication conduits, using new, far more cost-effective tunneling equipment such as that pioneered by the Boring Company. We will build our cities further upwards to accommodate drone ports and indoor farms, and we will employ creative parasitic architecture to enhance and enlarge legacy structures. If we want to, we will increase the per capita usable surface area in urban centers, both indoors and outdoors, even as we maintain or even increase the population density per square mile.

As dreams become reality, the next generation of smart buildings will not only be nearly self-sufficient in water and energy consumption through recycling, but they will also be much easier to maintain. Buildings will have photovoltaic skin, including the windows, battery storage using safe and inexpensive technologies, and spacious areas, including ample areas for plants and natural light, and often utilize mass timber as a structural material.

The technology-driven renaissance we are only now fully entering will change the rules, making projects profitable that previously could not possibly attract investment. Recycling practices that are economically impossible today, along with construction projects that so far have been economically infeasible, will become cost-effective propositions when robots begin to coordinate and manage increasingly automated processes to aid in recycling, construction, hazardous waste management, and critical maintenance. Highly skilled, labor-intensive jobs will be done by machines, dramatically lowering costs.

We will have flying cars after all. We will have robots and androids and colonies on Mars. And it will be unleashed by competitive capitalism as practiced by a new generation of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who not only rejected but also completely eradicated the woke mind virus and vanquished the special interests who profited from scarcity.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 08:05

Snap Shares Soar On $400 Million Perplexity Deal To Embed AI-Powered Search

The AI application wave is being driven by the rapid integration of these intelligent systems into products people already use, from messaging and search to productivity, entertainment, commerce, and even transportation. The latest example: Snap's $400 million partnership with Perplexity to integrate its AI-powered answer engine directly into Snapchat, signaling how conversational AI is becoming a core layer directly within some apps. 

This new collaboration gives Perplexity access to nearly 1 billion monthly active users, mainly Gen Z and millennial audiences. Perplexity plans to compensate Snap through a mix of cash and equity, with revenue recognition starting in 2026. 

Millions of people connect and discover the world through Snapchat. By bringing Perplexity to Snapchat, we're able to serve that curiosity directly where it occurs," Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas wrote in a statement.

Snap CEO Evan Spiegel noted, "Our goal is to make AI more personal, social, and fun – woven into the fabric of your friendships, Snaps, and conversations," adding, "This partnership reflects our shared vision for the power of AI to enhance discovery and connection on Snapchat, and we look forward to collaborating with more innovative partners in the future." 

Snap-Perplexity partnership came alongside Snap's third-quarter earnings: revenue rose 5% year-on-year to $1.51 billion (slightly above Bloomberg Consensus estimates), and daily active users climbed 8% to 477 million. For Q4, Snap guided sales of $1.68 billion to $1.71 billion, mostly in line with analysts' expectations.

In markets, the partnership sent Snap shares up more than 20% to around $8.77 each. Shares are hovering at pre-Covid levels. 

More importantly, the consumer layer of AI integration is gaining momentum, with yesterday's news that Apple's Siri will soon be powered by Google's AI, alongside recent announcements about Spotify's AI features and other apps rapidly embedding models. Meanwhile, Tesla vehicles can now operate in Full Self-Driving mode with the Grok chatbot integrated directly into the system. We expect this flood of app-layer AI innovation to expand even further in 2026.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 07:45

Germany Submits To Islam: Christmas Market In Overath Cancelled

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In the German town of Overath (North Rhine-Westphalia), this year’s Christmas market has been cancelled. The cost of protecting visitors from potential terrorist attacks exceeds the organizer’s budget. The city refuses to cover the expenses. A capitulation to Islamism.

It wasn’t long ago that Christmas markets were among the social highlights of the year. Whether in small towns or major cities – they were meeting points for friends and family, for mulled wine, sausages, and quiet conversations wrapped in winter’s cold and early darkness.

Places of Togetherness 

There was this special peaceful coziness. A place where community was celebrated – joyful, calm, and without fear. A tradition that brought people closer together.

What would urban life be without safe and regular gatherings in public spaces? A wasteland. A dystopia.

These moments – when people could pause, breathe, and let the soul drift for a moment – have become scarce in Germany’s public life. Since 2015, since Angela Merkel’s open-border decision, Europe has entered its own Michel Houellebecq moment.

The mass influx of young men from predominantly Islamic countries has deeply shattered the population’s sense of security.

The Loss of Carefreeness 

And in this increasingly tense atmosphere, just when Chancellor Friedrich Merz touched a sore point by speaking about the changing face of cities, a manufactured storm of outrage erupted against him.

Even after deadly Islamist attacks – Berlin’s Breitscheidplatz in 2016 with 12 victims, the Solingen festival stabbing in 2023 with three dead, or the bombing plot at the Magdeburg Christmas market last year – Germany still refuses to confront militant Islam pressing into Europe.

The aggressive rejection of any criticism within Islamic circles points to the core problem: Islam never passed through the crucible of Enlightenment like Christianity did. Christianity’s claws were cut – and what remained was woven into the psychological fabric of modernity.

The list of Islamist attacks in Germany and Europe is long and growing month by month. And it proves how intimidation of secular Western society has become successful – when even traditional festivals like Christmas markets are only possible behind heavy police presence and concrete barriers to stop jihadist vehicle attacks.

The feeling of carefree celebration is gone.

Another Christmas Market Falls 

The cancellation of this year’s Christmas market in Overath near Cologne fits perfectly into this picture. High security costs to protect visitors from terrorism make it impossible to open. The city refused to cover the organizer’s expenses.
The same now in Dresden – several smaller private Christmas markets cancelled because security costs exploded.

For one and a half years, the market association tried to negotiate with city officials, said Andreas Korschmann, head of the town marketing group.

Wouldn’t this be precisely the moment for the city to step up? Aren’t politicians always preaching about civic engagement and vibrant local life?

But there is no sign of courage, no standing up for a free, tolerant society. Just hollow political phrases for their own feel-good bubble.

In Overath, Islamists have managed – without any real resistance – to push aside a piece of tradition and communal life.

Outside knife-free zones and heavily policed city centers, a chilling silence spreads.

Winter Markets as Fig Leaf 

The pitiful renaming of Christmas markets into “Winter Markets” was already a bow to Islam. A needless kowtow to an increasingly irritable, alienated homegrown left-wing milieu.

Germany is trapped in an identity and cultural crisis.

It’s impossible to ignore: large parts of politics and society have thrown in the towel, surrendering to Islamist pressure and the obvious threat.

A real solution would begin at the border – with a completely new regime controlling who enters the country. But the political Left and its media complex successfully taboo such measures as nationalist extremism.

The policy of open borders – a one-way membrane into the welfare state – has inflicted deep wounds on German society over the last decade. This is not just a vague feeling of insecurity; it is statistically documented in black and white.

With endless migration waves and the lack of cultural immune defense, German traditions and public life are fading into a deafening silence.

Michel Houellebecq’s grim vision of Europe bowing before militant Islam is, year after year, turning into a bleak certainty.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 07:20

Diageo Lowers Outlook On Dismal Drinking Demand As Shares Hit Decade Low 

British spirits giant Diageo Plc, one of the world's largest drink makers, tumbled to a 10-year low on Thursday after lowered guidance overshadowed better-than-expected first-quarter sales. Wall Street analysts noted mounting frustration over the lack of detail regarding the company's search for a new chief executive.

The maker of Don Julio, Johnnie Walker, Casamigos, Smirnoff, and many other popular bar beverages now expect organic net sales to be flat to slightly lower, compared to prior guidance for growth. This dismal outlook overshadowed stronger-than-expected first-quarter sales. 

Diageo shares in London fell 6% to a 10-year low, down 58% since peaking around 4,000 pounds in 4Q21.

Interim CEO Nik Jhangiani acknowledged a dismal outlook but reaffirmed that Diageo's $625 million cost-savings plan remains on track. Also weighing on sentiment is the lack of color over CEO succession after Debra Crew's sudden July exit. 

"We are not satisfied with our current performance and are focused on what we can manage and control," Jhangiani said in the statement.

Wall Street analyst reactions 

• Jefferies (Buy): Warned that the lack of management succession news could weigh on shares; said cash guidance is unchanged, but EBIT and sales were revised down, with Q1 ahead of expectations.

• RBC (Sector Perform): Highlighted that Q1 results beat expectations but full-year guidance was reduced due to weaker North American and Chinese demand; also noted no CEO update.

• Citi (Buy): Acknowledged Q1 beat but flagged that FY26 guidance downgrades and a likely weaker Q2 outlook could pressure the stock; nonetheless, sees limited downside as FY26 EPS consensus is unlikely to fall materially.

More broadly, U.S. spirits faced another transition year as demand continues to slide, mirroring a similar decline in China. Younger U.S. consumers have been abandoning alcohol in favor of healthier lifestyle trends, further pressuring overall consumption.

At the start of this year, we cited a Goldman note that warned clients, "There is no sign of a bottom, with risks still skewed to the downside," for Diageo shares. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 06:55

What's The Real Reason Why The Economist Wants Europe To Spend $400 Billion More On Ukraine?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Federalizing the EU, not the political fantasy of defeating Russia, is the real goal, which requires another four years of proxy warfare and at least another $400 billion to complete.

The Economist argued that the EU and the UK should meet Ukraine’s estimated $390 billion financing needs over the next four years.

In their words, “Another half-decade of [Russia’s supposedly worsening economic-financial situation] would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia”, while “Any long-term financing solution for Ukraine would help Europe build the financial and industrial muscle it needs to defend itself.”

This would only cost 0.4% of GDP per NATO member (excluding the US).

They also fearmongered that “The alternative would be for Ukraine to lose the war and become an embittered, semi-failed state whose army and defence industries could by exploited by Mr Putin as part of a new, reinvigorated Russian threat.” While it’s unlikely that Ukraine would ever team up with Russia to threaten any NATO state, Ukraine might blame Poland for its loss, after which Ukraine might back a terrorist-separatist campaign in Poland waged by its ultra-nationalist diaspora as warned about here.

Regardless of whatever one might think about the aforesaid scenario, the point is that The Economist is employing a typical carrot-and-stick approach in a bid to persuade its elite European audience that it’s less costly for them to foot Ukraine’s estimated $390 billion bill across the next four years than not to. The immediate context concerns the US’ intensified proxy war of attrition against Russia as part of Trump’s new three-phased strategy that’s meant to bankrupt the Kremlin and then stir unrest at home.

To be clear, citing this strategy doesn’t imply endorsement, it’s just meant to show why The Economist thinks that its audience might now be receptive to its appeal. About that, it’ll be a hard sell to convince folks that they need to subsidize Ukraine to such an extent over the next nearly half-decade, which could entail more taxes and social spending cuts. After all, the $100-110 billion spent this year (“the highest sum yet”) didn’t push Russia back, so the same amount over the next four likely won’t either.

Russia’s war chest is also big enough to continue funding the conflict during this time, so The Economist’s proposal would merely retain the status quo instead of alter it in the West’s favor. The dynamics might even shift further in Russia’s favor, The Economist candidly warned to its credit, “if Russia can tap China for funds”. In that scenario, the EU would likely be compelled to “tap” its own population for an equivalent sum to at least retain the status quo, thus worsening their burden with no clear end in sight.

As The Economist wrote: “for the EU to issue bonds collectively would create a bigger pool of common debt, deepening Europe’s single capital market and boosting the role of the euro as a reserve currency. A multi-year horizon for weapons procurement would help Europe sequence the build-up of its defence industry.” This aligns with July 2024’s assessment that “The EU’s Planned Transformation Into A Military Union Is A Federalist Power Play”. Federalizing the EU, not defeating Russia, is therefore the real goal.

This insight enables one to understand why EU elites – especially in EU-leader Germany – complied with the US’ anti-Russian sanctions at their own economic expense. In exchange for neutralizing the euro’s potential to rival the dollar, EU elites were allowed to accelerate the bloc’s federalization to entrench their power, which the US approved after no longer viewing the now-subordinated EU as a latent threat. Another four years of proxy warfare and at least ~$400 billion are now required to complete this process.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 06:30

US Sanctions North Korean Bankers, Institutions Over Money Laundering

The United States on Nov. 4 imposed sanctions on individuals and entities accused of assisting North Korea in laundering money generated from cyberespionage and illicit activities.

The Treasury said the measures aim to cut off financial resources that support Pyongyang’s nuclear programs because the communist regime in Pyongyang relies on such illicit activities to fund its ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs.

More than $3 billion—mostly in cryptocurrency—has been siphoned off by North Korean-affiliated cybercriminals through advanced malware and social engineering over the past three years, according to the Treasury’s estimates. The department described the scale of financial theft by Pyongyang as unparalleled by any other nation.

“North Korean state-sponsored hackers steal and launder money to fund the regime’s nuclear weapons program,” said John Hurley, the Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

“By generating revenue for Pyongyang’s weapons development, these actors directly threaten U.S. and global security.”

As The Epoch Times' Dorothy Li reports, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed penalties on two individuals named Jang Kuk Chol and Ho Jong Son, who are accused of helping manage $5.3 million in cryptocurrency and other funds on behalf of a financial institution previously sanctioned by the Treasury, First Credit Bank.

Some of the money can be traced back to a North Korean ransomware actor that previously targeted American victims and managed revenue from North Korean IT workers, the Treasury said.

The department also sanctioned Korea Mangyongdae Computer Technology Company and its president, U Yong Su.

The North Korea-based tech company allegedly used Chinese nationals as “banking proxies” to obscure the origin of funds generated by the North Korean IT workers’ illicit revenue generation schemes, it said.

Pyongyang employs banking representatives, financial institutions, and shell companies located in places such as Beijing and Moscow to launder funds generated through illicit financial activities, including IT worker fraud, digital asset theft, and sanctions evasion, according to the U.S. government.

Among those targeted is Ryujong Credit Bank, a North Korea-based financial institution accused of providing “financial assistance in sanctions avoidance activities between China and North Korea.”

“These activities have included the remittance of North Korea’s foreign currency earnings, money laundering, and financial transactions for overseas North Korean workers,” the department said.

In addition, four representatives of North Korean financial institutions based in China and Russia were also added to the sanctions list. Included is Ho Yong Chol, who allegedly facilitated the transfer of more than $2.5 million in U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan on behalf of U.S.-designated Korea Daesong Bank, while managing transactions exceeding $85 million for another North Korean state-affiliated entity.

The sanction came weeks after the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, an 11-nation group led by the United States, released the latest assessment of North Korea’s cyber operations.

North Korea’s cyber force is “a full-spectrum, national program operating at a sophistication approaching the cyber programs of China and Russia,” the report reads.

In late June, the U.S. Justice Department announced criminal charges against individuals allegedly involved in Pyongyang’s scheme to fund its nuclear weapon programs by helping North Korean IT workers get jobs at more than 100 American companies, including Fortune 500 groups.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 05:45

The Ban On Ricky Gervais' Billboard Saying "Welcome To London, Don't Forget Your Stab Vest" Shows We Are No Longer Free

Authored by Lee Taylor via DailySceptic.org,

Last week, Britain’s comedy treasure, Ricky Gervais, took to social media to rant about how his proposed billboards for Dutch Barn Vodka had been rejected.

Each banner featured a dark but hilarious slogan that would have inevitably won the applause of Britain’s disillusioned masses.

Its rejected lines include:

• “Dutch Barn, drugs this good are usually illegal.”

• “Dutch Barn, your tube driver’s favourite drink in the morning.”

• “Dutch Barn, one day you’ll be underground for good.”

Ironically, the slogan to cause the most amusement of all among social media followers was the following:

• “Welcome to London, don’t forget your stab vest.”

Brits particularly appreciated this version as it bravely stood as a dark, tongue-in-cheek nod to Britain’s knife-crime epidemic.

But to the rule makers it was just another offensive idea that was banned due to being too ‘inappropriate’. 

Merely a day after Gervais delivered his rant, reality took a terrifying turn. On a Doncaster-to-London train, a man went on a blood-fuelled rage, stabbing 10 innocent people. Real life quickly turned darker than the joke, and not even the most intuitive writers could have scripted it. 

Gervais, who has made a career out of saying what others daren’t, simply held up a mirror. The reaction proved his point: in Britain today you can be stabbed on your commute, but you can’t harmlessly address it on a poster. And, if you have to know a single fact about the British psyche, it is that we cope by mocking life’s miseries – that’s the British spirit for you.

Transport for London was quick to deny the censorship, insisting the campaign was never formally rejected. Who knows, maybe it was all a publicity stunt – but that only underscores the point. In today’s climate, Gervais’s kind of humour wouldn’t stand a chance of official approval.

Advertising used to be a marketplace of ideas, brash, creative, sometimes tasteless, but free. Now it’s a managed space policed by people who think their job is to protect us from ourselves. The regulators pore over copy like priests parsing scripture, deciding what the public may or may not see. ‘Misleading’, ‘offensive’, ‘harmful’. The list of forbidden words grows weekly.

But this isn’t just about prudishness or brand safety. It’s about ideology. The modern advertising world has become a proxy for the wider culture war: a class of bureaucrats and creative-industry lifers enforcing political orthodoxy under the guise of ‘standards’. They’re terrified of a complaint on X and paralysed by the idea that someone, somewhere, might take offence.

On the Underground, censorship is practically civic policy. The same network that hosts endless government propaganda about ‘climate action’ and ‘diversity’ suddenly loses its appetite for satire, religion or, heaven forbid, criticism of London itself. Remember the “Are you beach body ready?” poster that was banned for hurting feelings? The one showing a woman in a yellow bikini? Sadiq Khan couldn’t get to a microphone fast enough to declare London a “body-positive” zone. But as Gervais says: “Just because you’re offended, doesn’t mean you’re right.”

Since then, Khan’s office has vetoed everything from meat adverts to oil campaigns, always in the name of public virtue. He governs the capital like a headmaster confiscating magazines, deciding what adults are allowed to look at between stations. It’s not public transport anymore; it’s a rolling sermon.

That’s why Gervais’s intervention matters. He isn’t some fringe provocateur. He’s one of Britain’s most-watched comedians, adored across class and political lines. When he takes aim at hypocrisy, whether it’s celebrity moralising or political correctness, people listen. He has an instinct for where the real line of public decency lies, and it’s a long way from where our cultural gatekeepers have drawn it. 

The fact that even he can’t get a joke past the bureaucrats tells you how far we’ve drifted. If Gervais can’t advertise satire, what hope is there for anyone trying to challenge consensus thinking? When the king starts killing the jester, you know the kingdom’s in trouble.

Advertising should be judged by one metric alone: does it persuade? If it’s stupid, tasteless or misses the mark, the market will kill it. Viewers will sneer, consumers won’t buy, and brands will learn. That’s accountability, not a panel of political appointees policing tone and subtext.

It’s time to strip moralism out of marketing. Dismantle the cosy club of regulators, councils and committees that treat adults like children. Let the people, the supposed targets of all this messaging, decide what offends them and what doesn’t. Because when you hand censorship to the state or its cultural proxies, it never stops at adverts. It spreads. One day you can’t mock London crime; the next you can’t discuss it. 

Lee Taylor is CEO and Founder of marketing agency Uncommon Sense.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 05:00