Zero Hedge

Hamas Submits 'Positive Response' To US-Backed Ceasefire As Pressure Mounts On Netanyahu

Hamas Submits 'Positive Response' To US-Backed Ceasefire As Pressure Mounts On Netanyahu

Hamas announced on Friday that it had delivered a "positive" response to the latest US-backed ceasefire and hostage release proposal for Gaza, stating it was ready to begin proximity talks with Israel "immediately" to resolve outstanding issues.

But just like with prior instances of being near the "goal line" - a phrase often heard during the Biden administration - Hamas has put forth several key conditions which could prove serious obstacles toward finalizing a deal. Still, global media is saying this is the closest the warring parties have been to reaching an agreement in a long time.

Via Associated Press

Israeli media, citing one mediation source, has said that one of Hamas’s main demands is clearer assurances about what happens if negotiations on a permanent ceasefire are not concluded by the end of the proposed 60-day truce.

The militant group's official statement said, "The movement has delivered its response to the brotherly mediators, which was characterized by a positive spirit."

"Hamas is fully prepared, with all seriousness, to immediately enter a new round of negotiations on the mechanism for implementing this framework," it added.

The current draft presented to Hamas says the ceasefire could be extended as long as both sides are negotiating in good faith, but Hamas reportedly wants that clause removed, fearing it gives Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opening to resume military action. This is precisely what ensued in March when a previous deal unraveled.

Instead, Hamas is pushing for language that guarantees negotiations on a permanent ceasefire will continue until a final agreement is reached, and this is something which Israel has resisted. 

Meanwhile, pressure on Netanyahu continues to grow domestically, as The Times of Israel details:

Tens of thousands of Israelis are set to join hostage families at mass rallies on Saturday night to urge the government to reach a deal that will free all the remaining captives held in Gaza after Israel and Hamas accepted the outlines of a US truce deal.

The rallies will be held as the security cabinet gathers to discuss Hamas’s response to the emerging ceasefire-hostage deal, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to the White House on Monday.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum demanded a comprehensive deal to end the war and release the remaining 50 hostages, at least 28 of whom are dead, even as Israeli officials are reportedly working to see which living hostages to prioritize in the partial, phased release under discussion.

Prior statements of Israeli leaders have presented a grim outlook, with the possibility that less than twenty captives taken on Oct.7, 2023 might still be alive.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in its official statement, "Amid reports of a partial deal, and the prime minister’s trip to the United States, hostage families invite Israelis of all stripes to come to Hostages Square and join them in a clear call: 'This is the time to finish the job, reach a comprehensive deal and ensure full Israeli victory.'"

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 14:35

"The Struggle To Get 'Normal' Again Is Epic... And Harsh..."

"The Struggle To Get 'Normal' Again Is Epic... And Harsh..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"I can negotiate with a man who wants to make money. I can't negotiate with a communist who wants to kill me." 

- Josh Lippincott on "X"

O, Norman Rockwell, where are you when we really need you?

Forgive us, Emma Lazarus, our second thoughts about those huddled masses yearning to breathe free. . . the wretched refuse of your teeming shore(s).

That was then and this is now. O, beautiful for spacious skies (but, why so many contrails criss-crossing overhead from the New York Island to the gulf stream waters?).

O, land of tattooed grandmas, hostages of the tiny screens, the sexually confounded, the illiterate and innumerate, the lawless and the feckless, brainwashed youth marinated in Marx, the deranged, befuddled, the bought-off, the bug-eyed and bewildered, the lame, the halt, the addicts, grifters, hustlers, porn-stars, drugstore cowboys, alpha dogs, beta boys, shrieking Karens, and sundry victims of future-shock — whither, this hallowed experiment in nationhood?

Wouldn’t you like to know? In the meantime, husk that corn and flip them burgers! Turn them wieners! Mash your guacamole, pop another frostie, pass the Jack, lock-and-load, and mind those hovering drones! It is the 249th birthday of what remains of our country! Respect and thanks, ye ancestors!

At least, there is Mr. Trump in command now, not Norman Bates’s mother (or whatever decrepitating thing pretended to rule from the White House those previous four years of anarchy and agony). Daddy’s in da house — finally! — and things are being put in order against all odds. Yeah, you’re gonna clean up your damn room, or else! For many, this is a yuge relief. The rest of you, with your “No Kings” fake revolution, your Antifa monkey business, your mean girl psychodramas, your trans psychosis, your childless despair, your occult Gramscian schemes of destruction — please report back to the margins, where you belong.

The struggle to get normal again is epic and harsh. And, of course, many will deny that there ever was such a state of being, of minding your business in the purest sense of the phrase, acting like responsible, self-respecting, autonomous adults. In the immortal words of Aimee Mann, better wise-up. Childhood ends; something else begins. Take yourself seriously for a change, but keep your heart light, ready for the jokes that travail always presents. After all, nothing is funnier than unhappiness.

To get back to normal, to shed the burden of absurdities we’ve been heaped with, requires an accounting. You know this. Matter of fact, the absence of such an accounting has been bugging you no end. A whole lot of pain and suffering was inflicted across this land in recent years and barely a soul has had to do any ‘splainin’. It rankles badly. When, if ever, will these vicious, seditionist goons who turned the nation inside-out and upside-down be compelled to sit at the defendant’s table in a court of law?

I have a theory. The right dawgs, you well-know, have been in position for months. They understand the conspiracy hatched ten years ago through-and-through. Mr. Patel, remember, ran Chairman Devon Nunes’ investigation of the nascent RussiaRussiaRussia hoax in 2017 as senior counsel for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and helped draft the “Nunes Letter,” much abused by the perfidious news media, that laid out the plot by Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Obama & Company to smother Donald Trump’s newborn presidency in its crib.

Through some alchemy of mass political psychosis, that conspiracy has rolled on for a whole decade, one malice-driven prank after another. It continues to this day, an evermore rearguard action conducted by Deep State rogues and their public mouthpiece, Norm Eisen of Lawfare, Inc. Dan Bongino, now at Mr. Patel’s right-hand, chronicled that long march of treason in several books while he conducted daily podcast discourses on the workings of it all. “Remember the names,” he always said. Danny Boombatz remembers the names.

Normality, with all its own problems and hazards, demands that accounting for crimes and insults against the people of this sore-beset Republic. That fateful accounting is the one element missing in all of Mr. Trump’s implacable “winning” of the past five months. Those remembered names fester like an abscessed wound in America’s body politic. That wound must be cleaned, irrigated, debrided, and dressed in judicial process that restores the probity and honor of our much-abused law.

My theory is that a whole lot of other matters had to be cleared out of the way first. And now, that is pretty much where we’re at. Mr. Ratcliffe, formerly Director of National Intelligence (in Trump One) and now Director of the CIA, also knows all the names. He’s been as quiet as a tick on a wild hog lo these many months, but on Wednesday he issued quite a squawk, in the public arena of X, no less, along with a report by trusted agency colleagues titled (nontoxically) Tradecraft Review 2016 ICA on Election Interference 062625.

This fateful report, which lays out the originating crime, should commence the more general institutional accounting so overdue. It’s coming. Cases are being laid and made quietly in the background. Cases will be brought. The insults will be redressed. Derangement will slip away like that quicksilver mirage on a desert highway. The inordinate division of recent years will go with it. We will allow ourselves to be a people again, one nation under God, as the old chestnut goes. Next year, on our country’s 250th birthday, there will be a special reason to celebrate. For now, patience and fortitude.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 14:00

OPEC+ Boosts Output More Than Expected In Quest To Snuff Shale

OPEC+ Boosts Output More Than Expected In Quest To Snuff Shale

Confirming earlier media leaks, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production even more rapidly than expected next month, as the Saudi-led group seeks to capitalize on strong summer demand in its move to reclaim market share.

The eight core group members agreed to raise supply by 548,000 barrels a day at a video conference on Saturday, putting the group on pace to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts one year earlier than originally outlined. The countries had announced increases of 411,000 barrels for each of May, June and July, already three times faster than scheduled, and traders had expected the same amount for August.

Saturday’s decision was based on “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories,” the Vienna-based OPEC said in a statement.

Crude traders had widely expected OPEC+ to ratify another hike of 411,000 barrels day for August, according to a Bloomberg survey, and delegates’ initial discussions this week also focused on that level. 

The latest increase amplifies a dramatic strategy pivot by the OPEC+ that helped drive oil prices lower this year, one which many view as punishment for quota abusers and as targeting US shale production which recently peaked and has been unchanged for months. Since April, the group shifted from years of output restraint to reopening the taps, surprising crude traders and raising questions about its long-term strategy. Officials have said that Riyadh is especially eager to restart more idled capacity as quickly as possible in a drive for market share.

Saturday’s decision also provides the latest indication of how Riyadh has consolidated its control of the group’s decision-making process, as late as Friday evening, delegates from several member nations appeared unaware of the plan to accelerate.

Meanwhile, citing unnamed delegates Bloomberg added that the cartel will consider adding another roughly 548,000 barrels a day in September at the next meeting on Aug. 3, which would represent the final step in reviving the 2.2 million barrels a day of supply curbs announced in 2023. Beyond that, it’s not clear whether the group would turn its attention to the next 1.66 million-barrel tier of idle output.

With OPEC+ pushing barrels into a market that is widely expected to be oversupplied later in the year, Brent futures have retreated 8.5% in 2025 as crude production rises both across the alliance and globally, while the threat to economic growth from President Trump’s trade war has cast a shadow on future demand. 

Still, oil fundamentals look more robust in the immediate term, and some delegates said the group is accelerating supply increases in part to take advantage of stronger demand during the northern hemisphere summer. Refiners in the US are churning through the most crude for the time of year since 2019, and prices for some fuels like diesel have soared. 

The extra oil output will be welcomed by President Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower oil prices to bolster the US economy, and needs to stave off inflation while pushing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

Yet they also threaten to swell a looming supply surplus. Global oil inventories have been accumulating at a pace of about 1 million barrels a day in recent months, as consumption in China cools while production climbs across the Americas, from the US to Guyana, Canada and Brazil.

A substantial surplus looms later this year, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs anticipate that prices will sink towards $60 a barrel or lower in the fourth quarter. Prices jumped during the conflict last month between Iran and Israel, but fell back quickly as it became clear that oil flows remained unaffected.

By pushing for faster supply increases, Saudi Arabia risks offsetting the benefits of higher sales volumes with the impact of falling oil prices. The kingdom is already grappling with a soaring budget deficit, and has been forced to slash spending on some of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s flagship projects.

OPEC+ co-leader Russia is confronting a deteriorating economic outlook and potential banking crisis as President Vladimir Putin continues to wage a costly war against neighboring Ukraine.

The drop in prices is also spreading pain through the American shale industry. In a recent survey, US shale executives said they expect to drill significantly fewer wells this year than planned at the start of 2025, citing lower oil prices and uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs.

“OPEC+ is sending a clear message, for anyone still in doubt: the group is firmly shifting toward a market share strategy,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at research firm Rystad Energy A/S who previously worked at the OPEC secretariat.

“Two big questions now hang over the market,” Leon added. “Will OPEC+ target the next tier of 1.66 million barrels? And second, is there enough demand to absorb it?”

There is a third question: with US wells plunging to 4 years low and US E&P companies now maximizing output from only on the most efficient Permian wells, how long until shale hits a major depletion air pocket and US production plunges, sending oil prices surging.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 13:25

Tehran Dismisses Reports Of Renewed US Talks Amid Domestic 'Anger'

Tehran Dismisses Reports Of Renewed US Talks Amid Domestic 'Anger'

Via The Cradle

Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday denied reports that Tehran and Washington were scheduled to resume indirect nuclear negotiations, rejecting the claims as baseless.

"Public opinion is currently so angry that no one even dares to talk about negotiations and diplomacy," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told Iranian media on Saturday.

Result of Israeli attacks on oil refineries and other sites last month, via EPA/Guardian

His comments follow a report by Amwaj.media on 4 July, citing unnamed Iranian sources who claimed that backchannel discussions were being revived following last month’s 12-day Israeli–US war on Iran.

On 29 June, Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht-e Ravanchi told reporters that no date had been set for further negotiations.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had earlier said that a return to talks was “under consideration and based on national interests,” but stopped short of confirming any decision or timeline.

Baghaei emphasized that recent Israeli strikes on Iranian cities and civilian infrastructure made diplomacy politically impossible, pointing specifically to what he described as war crimes.

“With the passage of several days since the cessation of the Israeli aggression, new dimensions of the war crimes committed by Netanyahu in Tehran and other Iranian cities subjected to attacks by the Israeli entity are being revealed,” he said.

Baghaei cited the Israeli bombing of Evin Prison Hospital, which killed 79 people, as an example of the “brutal Israeli war crime” committed during the assault.

He called for international condemnation of the “aggressive entity,” saying it must be “held accountable and punished” for crimes against the Iranian people.

Iranian and US negotiators were set to meet in Oman on 15 June for a sixth round of indirect nuclear talks. The meeting was cancelled after Israeli warplanes bombed Tehran two days earlier, with Iranian and Omani sources confirming the talks were suspended indefinitely in response to the assault.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 12:50

Poland Blasts Trump-Putin Dialogue After Drone Strike Escalation

Poland Blasts Trump-Putin Dialogue After Drone Strike Escalation

NATO's largest and most well-protected 'eastern flank' country is angry over President Donald Trump's phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski has called on Trump to restart military aid to Ukraine, and he highlighted recent Russian airstrike that damaged the Polish Embassy compound in Kiev.

Poland’s long-standing foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, via Politico

Trump's Thursday call with Putin yielded no fresh progress on ending the war, but it did result in anger and tensions among European allies, and certainly wasn't received well by Zelensky.

In a message posted on X on Friday, Sikorski urged Trump to resume the supply of anti-aircraft ammunition to Ukraine amid record-setting numbers of drones sent against the country this week. He also accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of "mocking" US-led peace efforts.

Zelensky suggested something similar, painting a picture that Trump is still getting 'played' by the Russian leader, who has no authentic intent to end the war.

"Massive Russian attack last night has caused fires and much damage, including to the Polish consulate in Kyiv," Sikorski wrote in the post. "President Trump, Putin is mocking your peace efforts. Please restore supplies of anti-aircraft ammunition to Ukraine and impose tough new sanctions on the aggressor."

Sikorski, however, separately confirmed that no one was harmed in the embassy strike, also suggesting little damage.

Trump has described that he was "very disappointed" by the Putin call, while a Friday call with Zelensky centered on the Ukrainian leader urging new, tougher sanctions on Moscow.

But Trump has resisted this, also amid similar requests from European allies, given the likelihood of this ending a path toward negotiated settlement altogether.

Trump is also busy trying to salvage bilateral US relations with Russia as part of the process. More sanctions would do little to impact Moscow's decision-making in Ukraine at this point, and Trump knows this, as Moscow increasingly relies on China, India, and even North Korea and Iran for defense and energy-related trade.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 12:15

One Big Beautiful Budget Deficit

One Big Beautiful Budget Deficit

By Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

Summary

  • On Thursday, Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that is supposed to include all Trump’s promises on fiscal policy in his second term. The bill includes tax cuts and additional spending on Republican priorities. The bill will extend the income tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which were set to expire by the end of the year and would have caused a fiscal cliff. There will be tax deductions for taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security. The bill includes additional spending on defense and immigration enforcement.
  • To finance the tax cuts and additional spending, or at least some of it, there are tax increases for and spending cuts in Democratic priorities. The tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will be terminated. What’s more, new taxes on wind and solar energy projects will be imposed if they use too much foreign content. Federal spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will be reduced and the slack should be picked up by the states. There will also be cuts in spending on Medicaid, the health care program for low-income people. Finally, at the request of Trump, and much to the dismay of the fiscal hawks, the debt limit will be raised by $5 trillion.
  • On balance, budget deficits are projected to rise by $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. However, the bill front-loads tax cuts and delays spending cuts, causing a fiscal cliff at the end of 2028 that will create political pressure in 2028 to extend the tax cuts and kick the spending cuts further down the road. Therefore, the upward impact on budget deficits in the next 10 years could be even larger.
  • Despite the large rise in the budget deficit, the upward impact on the growth trajectory of the US economy is likely to be limited. A large part of what the Republicans and their proxies are trying to sell as “tax cuts” are actually extensions of the TCJA, which have been widely anticipated.
  • Meanwhile, the increase in defense spending is relatively modest and keeps it below what other NATO members have pledged (as percentage of GDP). Despite all the talk about Trump’s “grand strategy”, this means that US foreign policy ambitions will be severely limited in the coming decade: a victory for the isolationists.
  • The One Big Beautiful Budget Act of 2025 underlines that two traditional wings of the Republican Party, the fiscal hawks and the foreign policy hawks, have been pushed aside by the MAGA movement.
Introduction 

The US Congress has passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that is supposed to include all Trump’s promises on fiscal policy in his second term. The self-imposed deadline was for the Senate and the House of Representatives to get a uniform bill to President Trump’s desk by July 4. On Tuesday, in the Senate, Vice President Vance had to step in as the tie breaker, because 50 senators voted in favor of the bill (50 Republicans) and 50 against (all 47 Democrats and 3 Republicans). Rand Paul voted “nay” because of the rise in the debt limit. In contrast, Susan Collins and Thom Tillis found the Medicaid cuts too deep to support the bill. Today, in the final vote of the House of Representatives, there were 218 votes in favor of the bill (218 Republicans) and 214 against (all 212 Democrats and 2 Republicans). Thomas Massie voted against the bill because he wanted more spending cuts, calling the bill a “debt bomb”, and at the other end of the Republican spectrum Brian Fitzpatrick – who supported the earlier House version of the bill – objected to the deeper cuts in Medicaid and SNAP.

What’s in the bill?

The One Big Beautiful Budget Act (OBBBA) of 2025 includes tax cuts and additional spending on Republican priorities. The bill will extend the income tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, the main fiscal policy package of Trump’s first term. These tax cuts were set to expire by the end of the year and would have caused a fiscal cliff. There will be tax deductions for taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security, in line with Trump’s promises of “no taxes” on these three sources of income during his 2024 campaign. There will also be a rise in child tax credits. The deduction cap on state and local taxes (SALT) will also be raised, at the request of Republican lawmakers in high tax states.

The bill includes additional spending on defense and immigration enforcement. The latter will be improved by extending the border wall, increased detention of migrants, and additional funds for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). The largest items in defense spending are shipbuilding, the Golden Dome defense system against foreign missiles, and replenishing the stock of ammunition. However, this would still leave defense spending at about 2.7% of GDP by 2034, which is well below the target that other NATO members have pledged at the recent summit in The Hague. Of course, compared to these countries the US has spent much more in cumulative terms, but the more relevant benchmark is what is needed against enemy countries. To put this in a historical perspective: when the US tried to outrun the Soviet Union during the Reagan years the US spent more than 6% of GDP.

To finance the tax cuts and additional spending, or at least some of it, there are tax increases for and spending cuts in Democratic priorities. The tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will be terminated. This was one of Trump’s campaign pledges. What’s more, new taxes on wind and solar energy projects will be imposed if they use too much foreign content. Federal spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will be reduced and the slack should be picked up by the states. There will also be cuts in spending on Medicaid, the health care program for low-income people. However, they have been eased to keep the so-called “Medicaid moderates” on board. The fiscal hawks wanted more spending cuts, but the Republican leadership needed to keep the centrists on board, given the small margins in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Finally, at the request of Trump, and much to the dismay of the fiscal hawks, the debt limit will be raised.

What’s not in the bill

To the relief of foreign investors, and spurred on by the US business sector, the proposed introduction of Section 899 to the Internal Revenue Code has been removed from the One Big Beautiful Bill because of a forthcoming international tax agreement announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Section 899 would have introduced retaliatory taxes on foreign companies from countries that impose “unfair taxes” on US companies, such as undertaxed profits rules, digital services taxes, and diverted profits taxes. However, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith have stated that the US Congress could still adopt Section 899 if the new international tax agreement is violated. What has never been in any version of the bill is a serious attempt to rein in spending on Social Security and Medicare. Consequently, US public debt remains on a trajectory that hardly seems sustainable in the long run.

The budget impact of the bill

On July 1, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the bill as passed by the Senate would decrease budget deficits by $0.4 trillion, relative to the budget enforcement baseline for consideration in the Senate. Of course this sounds great and is what the Republicans and their proxies are trying to sell to the public. However, this baseline – imposed by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsay Graham – already assumes an extension of the TCJA income tax provisions. On its own this is a choice that could be defended, however when the CBO scored the TCJA in 2017 they assumed that these tax provisions would expire, in line with then current law and with the common practice of budget scoring by the CBO. So taken together, the budget impact of these tax extensions has been deleted. This is truly One Big Beautiful Magic Act. As Lindsay Graham put it last week: “I’m the king of the numbers, I’m Zeus, the budget king.” With a simple shift-in-accounting trick1, $3.8 trillion has disappeared into a black hole of time inconsistency. In the same letter on July 1, the nonpartisan CBO stated that compared with their January 2025 baseline budget projections, it would increase deficits over the 2025-2034 period by $3.4 trillion. So in reality, the OBBBA has a significant upward impact on the budget deficit.

What’s more, the bill front-loads tax cuts in the next few years and delays spending cuts, causing a rise in the budget deficit in the short run and political pressure down the road to extend the tax cuts, further increasing annual budget deficits. Many deficit-increasing measures are scheduled to expire in 2028, while many deficit-reducing measures do not start until after 2028.

This would create a large fiscal cliff in 2028 that could force another extension of tax cuts, similar to the response that we are seeing this year in anticipation of a 2025 fiscal cliff that would emerge if the OBBBA had been rejected. Keep in mind that in November 2028 elections will take place for the presidency, the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate. In addition to extending tax cuts, there may be pressure to undo much of the deficit reduction scheduled by the OBBBA to take place after 2028. This could increase the upward impact of the bill on the budget deficit in the next ten years from $3.3 trillion to $4.8 trillion according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). In other words, the OBBBA of 2025 would repeat the same trick used in the TCJA of 2017 by keeping the projected upward impact on the federal deficit limited through sunsets that are very likely to cause extensions of deficit-increasing measures when the fiscal cliffs comes in sight. These measures are only temporary in name, in reality they are permanent.

The economic impact of the bill

Despite the large rise in the budget deficit, the upward impact on the growth trajectory of the US economy is likely to be limited. A large part of what the Republicans and their proxies are trying to sell as “tax cuts” are actually extensions of the income tax provisions in the TCJA. In fact, the One Big Beautiful Bill is removing the fiscal cliff that loomed at the end of this year. What’s more, the extension has been widely anticipated because the Republicans could not afford the fiscal cliff from an electoral perspective. So this should not change the growth projections of the US economy. The additional stimulus would come from the other tax cuts, which are considerably smaller.

No serious attempt has been made to improve the US public debt trajectory. Fiscal discipline has gone out of the window on Capitol Hill and the few remaining fiscal hawks are at best slowing down the upward trajectory of the debt. This leaves the enforcement of US fiscal discipline to the bond vigilantes. However, they are faced with limited alternatives to US treasuries. Nevertheless, as far as they are able and willing to diversify away from US treasuries, they could demand higher yields. In the long run, this is increasingly likely. Either through higher interest rates or through higher tax rates if US lawmakers are going to put their fiscal house in order, this budget explosion could slow down economic growth down the road. However for now, the low tax rates of the TCJA have been extended and some new tax cuts have been added. Just stop thinking about tomorrow.

The foreign policy impact of the bill

Despite all the talk about Trump’s “grand strategy”, defense spending in the One Big Beautiful Bill does not seem compatible with preserving US military dominance. Cutting taxes (or extending tax cuts) without touching Social Security and Medicare has left little room for increasing defense spending. This means that US foreign policy ambitions will be severely limited in the coming decade. In this sense the OBBBA is also a victory for the isolationists. While the recent US attack on Iran can be seen as a short-term victory for the foreign policy hawks in the Republican Party, the OBBBA will give the isolationists the upper hand in the long run.

Conclusion

In the end, this bill is essentially about extending the Trump tax cuts of 2017 and adding some new tax cuts promised during the presidential campaign of 2024. Despite spending cuts on clean energy programs and health care for low income Americans, the fiscal hawks saw their wings clipped again and the US public debt continues to rise. However, the foreign policy hawks are in for some big disappointments as well. They may be basking in the glory of the attack on Iran, but there is no budget for their future ambitions. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” underlines that these two traditional wings of the Republican Party, the fiscal hawks and the foreign policy hawks, have been pushed aside by the MAGA movement.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 11:40

FBI, Sheriff's Office Arrest 28 Motorcycle Gang Members In 'Operation Mongolian Beef'

FBI, Sheriff's Office Arrest 28 Motorcycle Gang Members In 'Operation Mongolian Beef'

Over two dozen alleged members of an outlaw motorcycle gang have been arrested and charged in connection with a March shooting at a Florida gas station, the FBI's Jacksonville office announced on Wednesday.

In total, 28 members of the Mongols motorcycle gang were arrested during a joint operation, dubbed "Operation Mongolian Beef," which was done in coordination between the FBI Jacksonville Division, the Volusia Sheriff's Office, and the Seventh Judicial Circuit State Attorney's Office, according to a statement, which added that arrest warrants were issued for three other members of the gang, whose arrests are pending.

As the Epoch Times notes further, the individuals have been charged with aggravated rioting in relation to the shooting at a gas station in New Smyrna Beach during Bike Week on March 8, 2025.

Aggravated rioting is when an individual participates in a riot of 25 or more other people, according to the statement. It is a second-degree felony and punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

As part of the operation, the FBI and its law enforcement partners carried out 14 search warrants at multiple properties, including at the Mongols Clubhouse in Edgewater, Florida; four homes in Volusia County; three homes in Brevard County; two homes in Miami-Dade County; one home in Chesterfield County, Virginia; one home in Palm Beach County; and two homes in Polk County.

“The FBI has made a commitment to all Americans that we will crush violent crime across the country,” FBI Jacksonville Special Agent in Charge Jason Carley said in the statement.

“There is no doubt Volusia County and, in fact, the entire state of Florida is safer today with these violent offenders off the street.”

The Mongols motorcycle gang, also known as the Mongols Motorcycle Club, is an international organization that self-identifies as an “outlaw” motorcycle gang, meaning its members define themselves as within the “1 percent” of motorcycle clubs who do not abide by the law, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ).

The group has slogans such as “Respect Few, Fear None” and “Live Mongol Die Mongol,” which the DOJ said illustrate the members’ “cut-throat attitude.”

Its members typically wear vests and patches, or have tattoos identifying their connection to the group, the DOJ said.

Outlaw motorcycle gangs are generally highly structured criminal organizations whose members engage in a range of criminal activities, including violent crime, weapons trafficking, and drug trafficking, according to the DOJ.

The Mongols gang is one of many such outlaw gangs that pose a “serious national domestic threat,” the department said.

Volusia Sheriff Mike Chitwood said the March 8 shooting took place at around 11.30 a.m, and involved members of the Mongols gang and a rival gang called the Warlocks.

He said the Mongols knew in advance that the Warlocks would be at the gas station and planned to “attack them.”

The Mongols arrived at the gas station and fired at the rival gang members, Chitwood said at a press conference, adding that “bullets were flying, innocent people were there, children were there.”

Two Warlocks were shot and sustained minor injuries, Chitwood said.

They declined to cooperate with law enforcement, but officials were able to use video footage from the shooting, including footage taken by bystanders, to identify at least 31 individuals allegedly involved in the incident, he said.

Chitwood said the Mongols are recognized as an organized crime domestic terror group in the United States, and internationally.

“They lit the fuse,” he said of the group. “It’s game on now. It’s game on because there’s going to be a treasure trove of evidence that’s going to lead to more and more indictments and arrests and put all the motorcycle gangers on notice.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 11:05

Columbia To Pay $9 Million To Settle Lawsuit Over US News College Ranking Data

Columbia To Pay $9 Million To Settle Lawsuit Over US News College Ranking Data

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Columbia University has agreed to pay $9 million to settle a proposed class-action lawsuit by a former student who claimed the school submitted inaccurate data to U.S. News & World Report, artificially inflating its position in the publication’s annual ranking of American universities.

The main campus of Columbia University in New York City on April 12, 2025. Caitlin Ochs/Reuters

In a statement to The Epoch Times, a university spokesperson said Columbia did not admit to any wrongdoing as part of the agreement and is entering into the settlement to “avoid protracted and costly litigation.”

“Columbia University has reached a settlement agreement regarding the alleged misreporting of data to U.S. News & World Report in connection with its Best Colleges rankings,” the spokesperson said.

The settlement covers about 22,000 undergraduate students at Columbia College, Columbia Engineering, and Columbia’s School of General Studies who were enrolled from the fall of 2016 to the spring of 2022, the spokesperson said.

“While the University denies any wrongdoing, it deeply regrets deficiencies in prior reporting and has adopted new steps to improve the quality and accuracy of information available to prospective students,” the spokesperson added. “Since 2022, the University has published Common Data Sets for all three undergraduate schools which are reviewed by a well-established, independent advisory firm to ensure reporting accuracy.”

The settlement stems from a lawsuit filed against Columbia’s Board of Trustees in August 2022 by a former student who accused the university of misrepresenting some of the data it submitted to U.S. News & World Report’s (USNWR’s) annual list.

According to the complaint, Columbia’s USNWR ranking has steadily risen from 18th place in 1988 to 2nd place in 2022 through the reporting of false data.

The lawsuit stated that USNWR’s yearly college rankings are popular with the general public and influence university application patterns. It further said the publication relies on universities, including Columbia, to self-report the data, which is then used to determine the universities’ rankings.

In March 2022, Michael Thaddeus, a professor of mathematics at Columbia, published an article concluding that the university had misreported data to USNWR.

The lawsuit said that Thaddeus found, among other things, that Columbia reported to USNWR that 82.5 percent of undergraduate classes enroll fewer than 20 students, which marked a higher percentage than any other school in the top 100 USNWR rankings.

His analysis of data from Columbia’s Directory of Classes indicated that the correct figure was likely between 62.7 percent and 66.9 percent, the lawsuit said.

Columbia also told USNWR that 8.9 percent of undergraduate classes enroll 50 students or more, but an analysis of data from Columbia’s Directory of Classes indicated that figure was more likely between 10.6 percent and 12.4 percent, according to the lawsuit.

The university also told the publication that 96.5 percent of its non-medical faculty are full-time, but the analysis by Thaddeus found that the correct figure was likely 74.1 percent. It also reported that its student-faculty ratio is 6:1, but Thaddeus found it was likely 11:1.

The lawsuit stated that Colombia’s actions were “objectively false, misleading and deceptive.” They also led to students paying “premiums for tuition, fees and costs based, in material part, upon Columbia’s USNWR ranking,” according to the lawsuit.

It alleged breach of contract, unjust enrichment, common law fraud, and violation of New York General Business Law.

In September 2022, the university said that it had “previously relied on outdated and/or incorrect methodologies” for some of the data it had submitted to USNWR and said it had changed those methodologies for current and future data submissions.

Then-Provost Mary Boyce said in a statement that “anything less than complete accuracy in the data that we report—regardless of the size or the reason—is inconsistent with the standards of excellence to which Columbia holds itself.”

“We deeply regret the deficiencies in our prior reporting and are committed to doing better,” Boyce added.

In June 2023, Columbia said its undergraduate schools would stop submitting data to the U.S. News rankings, saying it remained “concerned with the role that rankings have assumed in the undergraduate application process.”

It said the rankings appeared to have an outsized influence on prospective students and may “distill a university’s profile into a composite of data categories.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 10:30

UN Nuclear Inspectors Depart Tehran As Iran Vows To Keep Enriching

UN Nuclear Inspectors Depart Tehran As Iran Vows To Keep Enriching

A group of inspectors from the United Nations' nuclear watchdog has finally and formally departed Iran after the country decided to halt its cooperation with the agency, following last month's surprise bombing raids by Israel and the United States.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed in statement shared on X on Friday that its personnel are returning to the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria. 

Via Reuters

Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Tehran, clarified that it's as yet unclear just how many IAEA inspectors left the country in this 'final' wave of departures.

"The language used doesn’t clarify whether all or only some of the staff departed, but it appears that a number of them are still in Iran," he said.

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi has urged Iran to resume monitoring and verification efforts as soon as possible, saying it is of "crucial importance" that direct dialogue with Tehran continues.

"The inspectors have been housed in Tehran unable to visit Iran’s nuclear sites since Israel attacked the country on June 13," The Wall Street Journal details. "They were housed at a hotel in the capital but may have later moved to a U.N. location, according to one of the people."

All of this comes after the Trump White House has threatened the potential for more military action should Iran resume enrichment of uranium, which it has promised to do undeterred. According to more from WSJ:

Their departure makes the prospect of any significant international access to Iran’s nuclear sites extremely unlikely, allowing it to carry out nuclear work unchecked. Iran’s activities are, however, being watched closely by Western and Israeli intelligence agencies, and the IAEA has access to satellite imagery of its sites. It also raises the prospect of a standoff over Iran’s participation in the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which bans it from nuclear weapons and requires regular inspections of its atomic program. 

For decades, Iran has been subject to rigorous inspections of its core nuclear sites. Inspectors would visit its enrichment sites and check its stockpile of enriched uranium every couple of days, ensuring that Iran wasn’t diverting fissile material for a nuclear weapon. 

Iran has meanwhile said that while it doesn't plan to retaliate further against the United States, it will carry on peaceful nuclear energy activities as a matter of national sovereignty. "As long as there is no act of aggression being perpetrated by the United States against us, we will not respond again," Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told NBC News on Thursday.

"Our policy has not changed on enrichment," Takht-Ravanchi crucially added. "Iran has every right to do enrichment within its territory. The only thing that we have to observe is not to go for militarization."

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 09:35

Americans Must Oppose The Establishment Of An East Asian NATO

Americans Must Oppose The Establishment Of An East Asian NATO

Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Libertarian Institute,

Ely Ratner’s latest offering in Foreign Affairs, “The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact,” is a textbook example of how groupthink, careerism, and militarist ideology continue to warp US foreign policy discourse. Ratner, now back at the Marathon Initiative after a stint as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, proposes a new multilateral NATO-style alliance in the Pacific. This would be a grotesque escalation of already dangerous US commitments in East Asia. From the perspective of anyone interested in realism, restraint, or constitutional government, this proposal is not only strategically unwise but morally and fiscally indefensible.

Let us begin with the obvious. Ratner envisions binding the United States to the defense of Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, with others (e.g., South Korea, New Zealand) to follow. But the US is already encumbered with mutual defense treaties in the region, such as with Japan and the Philippines—agreements that are themselves dangerous anachronisms dating from the early Cold War. Ratner, rather than asking whether these entanglements serve American interests, wants to double down by interlocking them in a region-wide web of obligations. To what end? To contain China, a country that, despite its size, has shown no intention or ability to project power beyond its near seas in a sustained or existentially threatening way.

The notion that Beijing aspires to be the next Nazi Germany, complete with pan-regional domination, is sheer fantasy—one that defense contractors and think tanks like the Marathon Initiative and the Center for a New American Security are happy to propagate for funding and prestige. Ratner is a veteran of both. His entire professional career has been spent either in government positions advocating military buildup or in think tanks crafting white papers that rationalize the same. That this man would now argue for institutionalizing a war alliance against the very country he has built his career warning against is predictable, but no less dangerous.

Libertarians have long warned against expansive foreign commitments that tie American lives and treasure to the ambitions and anxieties of foreign powers. Ratner’s proposed “Pacific Defense Pact” would formalize exactly the sort of blank-check militarism that the Founders abhorred. It would commit the United States to a potential war over rocks in the South China Sea or fishing disputes in the East China Sea, escalating every regional quarrel into a possible global conflict. If China is a threat to Japan or the Philippines, those nations—wealthy and capable in their own right—can and should take responsibility for their own defense.

Ratner attempts to buttress his case by citing the growing military cooperation among Australia, Japan, and the Philippines. But rather than taking this as evidence that these states are capable of handling their own regional affairs, he takes it as a reason for the U.S. to get more deeply involved. This is precisely backward. If America’s allies are increasing their capabilities and coordination, what better time to reduce, not increase, US exposure?

Moreover, the article is riddled with familiar alarmism: Chinese ships near disputed islands, alleged disinformation campaigns, and weaponized economic policies. Ratner ignores the fact that the United States engages in all of these tactics itself. He paints a picture of a defensive, peace-loving Washington encircled by an aggressive, expansionist Beijing—a cartoonish dichotomy unworthy of serious analysis. He also omits any discussion of the provocative role the U.S. has played in stoking regional tensions, such as through arms sales, freedom-of-navigation operations, and explicit promises to defend Taiwan.

The article’s most galling claim is that the proposed pact would not burden the U.S. military with new obligations but would merely formalize existing relationships. This is either dishonest or delusional. Anyone familiar with alliance politics knows that formalizing mutual defense guarantees dramatically raises expectations, lowers diplomatic flexibility, and can actually increase the likelihood of conflict since such pacts, once signed, create pressure to demonstrate credibility, to act decisively, and to escalate disputes that might otherwise be ignored or resolved diplomatically.

From a constitutional and fiscal perspective, Ratner’s proposal is especially dangerous. The U.S. is $34 trillion in debt, overstretched militarily, and embroiled in military deployments on every continent. The last thing it needs is a new Cold War style alliance. Japan, the Philippines, and Australia (along with a host of others, such as India, Indonesia, and South Korea) are perfectly capable of defending themselves against a country that still struggles to project naval power beyond the first island chain.

In sum, Ratner’s Pacific Defense Pact is not a serious proposal for American security. It is a serious proposal for keeping the defense contractors flush, the think tanks buzzing, and the machinery of war humming. As the author of The Fake China Threat and Its Very Real Danger, I must once again stress: this fear-mongering has real costs—to our economy, to our liberty, and to the lives of Americans who might be asked to fight and die in a wholly unnecessary war. We should reject Ratner’s vision not only because it is strategically misguided but because it is morally bankrupt.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 09:20

This Is The Income A Family Needs To Be Middle Class, By State

This Is The Income A Family Needs To Be Middle Class, By State

Across the United States, what qualifies as “middle class” varies widely depending on where you live.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, breaks down the median household income for each U.S. state, revealing sharp contrasts in earning power. It provides a snapshot of where families may feel more or less financially secure based on local income benchmarks.

The data for this visualization comes from SmartAsset.

Editor’s note: This map uses median household income as a simple indicator of the middle class in each state. True middle class status typically spans a range of incomes.

Top Earners Cluster in the Northeast

Maryland, Washington D.C., and Massachusetts lead the nation with household incomes at or above $90,000. High concentrations of federal jobs, tech firms, and elite educational institutions contribute to these numbers. According to Pew Research Center, these regions also report strong access to health care and education, reinforcing higher cost-of-living dynamics.

RankStateMedian Household Income 1Maryland$90,203 2District Of Columbia$90,088 3Massachusetts$89,645 4New Jersey$89,296 5New Hampshire$88,465 6Washington$87,820 7California$85,388 8Utah$84,131 9Virginia$83,848 10Connecticut$83,771 11Colorado$82,067 12Alaska$81,818 13Minnesota$80,774 14Oregon$77,305 15Illinois$76,384 16Hawaii$76,285 17New York$74,314 18Georgia$74,063 19Rhode Island$74,008 20Wisconsin$73,014 21Nevada$72,618 22Pennsylvania$71,412 23Arizona$71,033 24Michigan$69,965 25North Dakota$69,478 26Texas$69,430 27North Carolina$67,671 28Delaware$67,016 29Iowa$66,122 30Missouri$65,795 31South Dakota$64,956 32Indiana$64,806 33Florida$64,666 34Nebraska$64,573 35Kansas$64,362 36South Carolina$63,718 37Ohio$61,891 38Maine$61,489 39Montana$59,955 40Tennessee$59,862 41Oklahoma$59,071 42Wyoming$58,845 43Louisiana$58,833 44Vermont$58,654 45Idaho$58,208 46Alabama$55,771 47Kentucky$54,942 48New Mexico$54,076 49Arkansas$52,664 50West Virginia$49,170 51Mississippi$47,519

The South Continues to Lag Behind

Southern states like Mississippi, and Alabama have the lowest median household incomes, under $54,000. Economic mobility in these regions is often hindered by lower investment in public infrastructure and education. As Brookings notes, many Southern states also experience higher poverty rates and limited access to high-paying industries.

States with Growing Incomes

Several states in the West and Midwest—including Oregon, and Utah—are emerging with stronger income levels, typically in the $70,000-$80,000 range.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out U.S. Workers Earning Under $17/Hour by State on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/05/2025 - 08:45

The Spiderweb & The Lion: Subversive Infiltration And US National Security

The Spiderweb & The Lion: Subversive Infiltration And US National Security

Authored by Andy Thaxton via RealClearWire,

Over a decade ago, when I was working on force protection issues for Navy air logistics missions, the threat of drone attacks was just beginning to be seriously discussed. We kicked around contingencies and “what ifs,” but those discussions were largely in the background of mission planning. Over the course of the past ten years however, that threat has exploded to the forefront of the military operational planning world and has presented something altogether new in modern warfare.

In the early hours of June 1, 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) executed Operation Spiderweb, an audacious drone assault on Russian airfields that destroyed or damaged a number of Russia’s most prized aircraft, including possibly two A-50 early-warning planes and as many as a dozen strategic bombers. Drones, smuggled into Russia over 18 months and concealed in remote-controlled containers, were launched from within Russian territory, catching Moscow’s defenses off guard.

Just days later, on June 13, 2025, Israel’s Mossad orchestrated a similarly bold strike, dubbed Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Mossad agents, operating covertly within Iran, established drone bases near Tehran and smuggled precision weapons to dismantle air defenses and eliminate key figures, including Revolutionary Guards commanders and at least one senior nuclear scientist. Allow me to emphasize, the drone attacks came from within Russia and from within Iran.

These operations quite possibly signal a new era of warfare: patient, subversive infiltration by committed adversaries willing to play the long game.

The United States—due to years of lax borders and insufficient oversight of foreign land purchases—is alarmingly vulnerable to such tactics, especially from a strategic rival like China, whose land acquisitions near U.S. military bases pose a clear risk.

Asymmetric Warfare Redefined?

Even for those who pay little attention to such things, it is hard to miss that Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb and Israel’s Rising Lion represent a paradigm shift in modern conflict. Rather than relying on conventional military power, both operations leveraged covert infiltration, advanced—though not restricted—technology, and strategic patience to strike deep within enemy territory. Ukraine’s drones, assembled and concealed over months, targeted a multi-billion-dollar air fleet with low-cost, commercially adapted unmanned systems. The SBU’s operation—smuggling drones across borders and hiding them in plain sight—demonstrated how irregular tactics can cripple a nation’s strategic power.

Similarly, Mossad spent (likely) years infiltrating Iran to set up drone bases and move munitions into position, striking at the heart of Tehran’s nuclear program and eliminating critical personnel. These operations reveal the growing effectiveness of a new asymmetric warfare, where smaller actors, with a little creativity, can exploit the vulnerabilities of larger adversaries, potentially for dimes on the dollar. Drones costing mere thousands, or even less, can now challenge systems worth billions. To complicate things further, drones can be deployed en masse. Online videos of Chinese drone light shows are something to see—single controllers managing 10,000 or more small drones in remarkable displays of precision and agility. It’s not hard to imagine what creative military planners could come up with using such systems.

Besides drones being employed in the two operations, there was a common thread of time. Both Ukraine and Israel invested significant time in planning, exploiting weak internal security, and insider access. Ukraine’s drones were smuggled incrementally and hidden in trucks and shipping crates. Mossad’s operatives reportedly worked under the nose of Iranian intelligence, using civilian vehicles to transport weapons and establish covert launch sites. These examples reveal a chilling truth: a patient adversary embedded on a target’s soil can strike with devastating precision.

Is the US Vulnerable?

The United States, with its liberal immigration policies of recent years, and permissive foreign investment rules is ripe for similar subversion. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) oversees foreign land purchases, but its mandate is limited and often fails to detect national security risks posed by strategic acquisitions.

A 2021 case involving the Chinese Fufeng Group’s purchase of 300 acres near Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota sparked congressional concern. The base plays a key role in U.S. drone operations and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions—making it an ideal target for espionage or sabotage. Chinese firms have also purchased or attempted to purchase land near other sensitive sites, including Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada and Fort Bragg in North Carolina. Only within the past few years has this activity started to gain the attention of lawmakers.

Separate from land purchases, as early as 2019, public warnings of Chinese container ships potentially docking in U.S. ports with concealed drone launchers onboard have been raised. Such covert systems could be used to target military installations and sensitive infrastructure. Tom Shugart, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), emphasized this risk recently stating, “We routinely allow ships owned and operated by DoD-designated Chinese military companies to sit in our ports with thousands of containers onboard and under their control.”

China Is a Patient Adversary

China’s strategy mirrors the patience and subversion seen in Ukraine and Israel’s operations. Through the Belt and Road Initiative and a sweeping global investment program, Beijing demonstrates a long-term approach to gaining strategic leverage. The FBI has highlighted the use of shell companies to obscure Chinese ownership behind purchases, which could complicate oversight by CFIUS and state governments. These acquisitions, if unchecked, could provide ground for passive intelligence gathering and even launching attacks.

The threat is not merely theoretical. Security analysts are increasingly concerned about the possibility of PLA-aligned actors using assets on U.S. soil to disrupt logistics during a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Drones launched from rural properties could target airfields, fuel depots, or command centers—just as Ukraine’s SBU did to Russia.

Closing the Gap

The United States must act decisively to counter this emerging threat. First, Congress should expand CFIUS authority to review all foreign land purchases in proximity to U.S. military bases. Second, the Department of Homeland Security must enhance port security and increase inspections of Chinese-flagged vessels for hidden weapons systems, as urged by CNAS. Third, the U.S. must elevate counterintelligence operations focused on subversive foreign networks—taking cues from Israel’s proven intelligence tradecraft. Finally, individual states must continue to pass legislation restricting foreign ownership of sensitive land.

Ukraine and Israel have demonstrated that patient, subversive infiltration can paralyze powerful militaries. China, through strategic land acquisitions and global ambitions, is already positioned to exploit America’s vulnerabilities. The question is no longer what if—but when.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 22:45

These Are The Most Stolen Cars In Every US State

These Are The Most Stolen Cars In Every US State

Car theft is a widespread issue, driven by factors like demand for parts and organized criminal activity.

In 2024, over 850,000 vehicles were stolen across the U.S., averaging one every 37 seconds.

To see which cars are being targeted the most, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualized the most stolen car model in every state.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from FinanceBuzz, which reviewed 2024 auto-theft insurance claims filed with the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB).

State Make and Model Vehicles Stolen Alabama Toyota Camry 219 Alaska Chevrolet Silverado 1500 61 Arizona Hyundai Elantra 649 Arkansas Chevrolet Silverado 1500 178 California Chevrolet Silverado 1500 6248 Colorado Hyundai Elantra 998 Connecticut Hyundai Elantra 617 Delaware Hyundai Elantra 73 Florida Hyundai Elantra 1074 Georgia Hyundai Elantra 750 Hawaii Kia Soul 75 Idaho Ford F150 Series 37 Illinois Jeep Grand Cherokee 1615 Indiana Hyundai Elantra 475 Iowa Chevrolet Silverado 1500 93 Kansas Hyundai Elantra 253 Kentucky Hyundai Sonata 419 Louisiana Hyundai Elantra 360 Maine Chevrolet Silverado 1500 42 Maryland Hyundai Elantra 1966 Massachusetts Honda Accord/Hyundai Elantra (tie) 241 Michigan Jeep Grand Cherokee 1507 Minnesota Hyundai Elantra 652 Mississippi Ford F150 Series 172 Missouri Hyundai Elantra 1074 Montana Ford F150 Series 60 Nebraska Hyundai Elantra 245 Nevada Hyundai Elantra 832 New Hampshire GMC Savana 19 New Jersey Honda Accord 755 New Mexico Chevrolet Silverado 1500 335 New York Honda CR-V 1776 North Carolina Hyundai Elantra 1094 North Dakota Chevrolet Silverado 1500 46 Ohio Hyundai Elantra 1351 Oklahoma Chevrolet Silverado 1500 293 Oregon Honda Civic 435 Pennsylvania Hyundai Elantra 1081 Rhode Island Honda Accord 60 South Carolina Honda Accord 331 South Dakota Ford F150 Series 76 Tennessee Nissan Maxima 1501 Texas Chevrolet Silverado 1500 6453 Utah Honda Civic 120 Vermont Subaru Forester 25 Virginia Hyundai Elantra 550 Washington Hyundai Elantra 1379 West Virginia Ford F150 Series 50 Wisconsin Hyundai Elantra 515 Wyoming Ford F150 Series 19 Hyundai and Kia’s Missing Security Feature

The most common model in this dataset is the Hyundai Elantra, which was the most stolen car in 20 different states. The Hyundai Sonata (Kentucky) and Kia Soul (Hawaii) also made an appearance.

A major reason for this trend is that many Hyundai and Kia models produced between 2011 and 2021 lack electronic engine immobilizers—basic anti-theft tech now standard in most vehicles.

This omission made it easier for thieves to exploit vulnerabilities, especially after viral social media videos demonstrated how to steal these cars using simple tools.

Pickup Popularity in the Heartland

Full-size pickups remain prime targets in rural and border states.

The Chevrolet Silverado 1500 leads theft tallies in Texas, California, and seven additional states, while Ford’s F-150 heads the list in six others. Both models are some of the most popular vehicles sold in the country, so it makes sense they’re also frequently stolen.

High resale demand for parts, coupled with interchangeable components across model years, keeps older trucks attractive to thieves—even as new anti-theft tech rolls out.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out How Tariffs Will Impact U.S. Car Prices on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 22:00

How To Obtain REAL Independence... Minimizing The State's Ability To Coerce You

How To Obtain REAL Independence... Minimizing The State's Ability To Coerce You

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Every July 4, Americans have less independence to celebrate...

Although the country’s founding ideals enshrined individual sovereignty, those principles have become little more than ancient history in practice today.

As Independence Day rolls around, it’s worth asking a serious question:

What does real independence look like - and how can you actually achieve it?

Let’s start by defining what it doesn’t look like:

  • A pile of taxes on every corner: income tax, sales tax, property tax, capital gains tax, estate tax—the list goes on.

  • Speech increasingly policed by “hate speech” laws and vague restrictions.

  • Mass surveillance through corporate-government partnerships, like Palantir’s work with federal agencies.

  • Travel restrictions, both international and domestic.

  • Legal tender laws, which force people to use rapidly debasing government confetti as money

  • The looming threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which can be programmed and controlled.

  • Endless foreign wars with no clear objective or benefit to the average citizen.

  • Systematic erosion of the Bill of Rights.

  • An ever-growing web of mandates, regulations, and bureaucratic red tape.

  • A politicized justice system that applies the law selectively.

  • An out-of-control federal debt burden and exploding interest expense, now consuming a massive share of tax revenue.

  • Persistent inflation and ongoing currency debasement, steadily eroding the value of your savings and income.

And that’s just a partial list.

Here’s the bottom line:

It doesn’t matter which party is in power. They are all headed in the same direction, albeit at different speeds.

The state will continue to squeeze your finances and tighten its grip over your choices. More taxes, more surveillance, more rules, fewer rights. That’s the trendline.

So what can you do?

You protect yourself with “Freedom Insurance.”

Most people have medical, life, fire, and car insurance.

Of course, you hope you never have to use these policies, but you have them anyway. They give you peace of mind and protect you if and when the worst does happen.

Think of international diversification as the ultimate insurance policy against an out-of-control government. I call it Freedom Insurance.

International diversification is a time-tested route to true freedom.

For centuries, wealthy families have used international strategies to protect their money and freedom. Now, thanks to modern technology, you can do the same—without needing to be a billionaire or even leave home.

You can start by:

  • Buying physical gold and silver – timeless, global assets that no central bank can print into oblivion.

  • Opening foreign bank accounts – spreading risk and gaining access to sounder financial institutions.

  • Acquiring foreign real estate – a tangible asset outside your home government’s jurisdiction.

  • Getting a second passport – your ultimate exit strategy if things take a turn for the worse.

  • Diversifying your income streams internationally – earn from clients, investments, or ventures in multiple countries. Better still, route this income through offshore structures in favorable jurisdictions.

  • Moving your digital footprint abroad – host your email, websites, and cloud data in privacy-respecting countries.

None of this is particularly difficult. It just takes some foresight and initiative.

These are all necessary steps to ensure your personal and financial freedom to the maximum extent in the coming chaos.

That’s how you declare your own personal independence.

When you’re no longer fully dependent on any single country for your money, rights, or future, it becomes very difficult for any one government to control you.

And when you reach that point, you’ll finally understand what real independence feels like.

So, how do you go about doing it?

If you’re serious about minimizing the state’s ability to coerce you—and you understand that “hope” is not a strategy—then it’s time to take the next step toward actionable independence.

Securing a second passport is one of the smartest moves you can make. It’s your ultimate Plan B—your legal escape hatch in an increasingly unstable world.

To help you navigate this process, we’re offering a free, in-depth guide: How to Get a Second Passport… the Easiest Option for You. This report breaks down the most accessible options, explains the costs involved, and highlights which paths are most popular and why. If you’re even thinking about international diversification, you need to read this first.

The world is heading toward crisis. Your ability to move freely—and protect yourself financially—may soon depend on the actions you take today. Click here to download the free report now.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 21:15

Indian Engineer Caught Secretly Working Up To Five Tech Jobs Simultaneously, Offered New Gig At "Cheat On Everything" Startup

Indian Engineer Caught Secretly Working Up To Five Tech Jobs Simultaneously, Offered New Gig At "Cheat On Everything" Startup

A Silicon Valley hiring scandal has erupted around an Indian software engineer accused of secretly working for as many as five technology companies simultaneously, exposing vulnerabilities in startup recruitment practices and reigniting debates over remote work accountability.

Soham Parekh, based in India, faces mounting allegations from multiple Y Combinator-backed startup founders who claim he misrepresented his employment history while juggling concurrent positions.

Suhail Doshi, founder of artificial intelligence startup Playground AI, first exposed the alleged scheme in a series of posts detailing how his company discovered Parekh's simultaneous employment at three to four other firms. Playground AI terminated Parekh within a week of hiring him in 2024, Doshi said.

"His resumé was 90% fake," Doshi wrote, sharing documentation that listed previous positions at prominent AI companies including Dynamo AI, Union AI, and Synthesia. The founder also published what he claimed was a private message from Parekh expressing remorse: "Have I completely sabotaged my career? What can I do to improve my situation? I am also happy to come clean."

The allegations quickly snowballed as other tech executives came forward with similar experiences. Fleet AI CEO Nicolai Ouporov claimed that Parekh had worked for his company and suggested the behavior was systematic.

Matthew Parkhurst, CEO of cloud cost optimization startup Antimetal, described firing Parekh after discovering his multiple concurrent positions. Despite calling the engineer "really smart and likeable," Parkhurst quipped that "hiring Soham is a new rite of passage" in the startup community.

Yet, the controversy surrounding Parekh shouldn't take anyone by surprise.

In 2024, research from SideHustles.com found that one-third of remote workers maintain multiple jobs, compared to 20% of in-person workers and 17% of hybrid workers. 25% of employees hold multiple positions, averaging 50 hours per week across their roles.

"Remote workers are increasingly working multiple jobs due to the rising cost of living in recent years," Kevin Thompson, finance expert and CEO of 9i Capital Group, told Newsweek.

"Additionally, many remote roles are relatively easy to manage, allowing workers to take on additional jobs without a noticeable drop in productivity."

The controversy has even attracted opportunistic job offers, with Cluley CEO Roy Lee, whose AI tool helps users "cheat on everything" from job interviews to sales calls, reaching out to Parekh with a job offer.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 20:30

California Homeschool Families Rally Against Bill For Increased Oversight, Funding Cuts

California Homeschool Families Rally Against Bill For Increased Oversight, Funding Cuts

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Homeschooling families in California are rallying against a bill they say would cut funding for critical enrichment programs and force their charter schools to close down.

Protesters rally to oppose AB 84 in California on June 23, 2025. Courtesy of Stephanie Dawson

Introduced by Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi, AB 84 seeks to increase oversight and accountability for charter schools, particularly non-classroom-based (NCB) programs.

The bill would “strengthen accountability and oversight to crack down on documented fraud and improper use of taxpayer dollars allocated for public education,” Muratsuchi, a Democrat from Los Angeles, said during an Assembly Standing Committee on Education hearing in April. Muratsuchi cited the A3 charter school scandal in San Diego, where in 2019, over $400 million in taxpayer funds was defrauded.

“Some charter schools provide vouchers to families using taxpayer dollars intended for public education.  These vouchers have been spent on family trips to Disneyland, ski resorts, and baseball games,” Muratsuchi told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement on July 2. “AB 84 seeks to ensure that public education funds are properly spent on legitimate educational activities.”

But parents and educators who provide extra curricular activities to students enrolled in charter schools, called vendors, say the bill would hurt students by cutting out significant funding for those classes.

AB 84 would reduce per-student funding for non-classroom based charter schools by up to 30 percent and restrict the use of public funds for enrichment activities unless providers hold traditional teaching credentials, limiting partnerships with specialists and professionals in the community.

For some vendors, that means they’ll have to close their business entirely.

“It would give me a pretty big dent,” Derek Davis, a private boxing coach in Temecula and Menifee, told The Epoch Times on June 27. “I would honestly most likely have to close shop and just go get a different job. So much of my clientele is all through the charter schools.”

Davis provides private boxing lessons at the homes of his students, mostly boys between five and 15 years old. He also offers group coaching lessons, providing an opportunity for children to socialize, similar to a traditional physical education class in public schools.

Davis said the bill would cut his business by about 50 to 75 percent.

“It took me years, a lot of work into going through the system and getting registered through all the charter schools, building the relationships with all the parents, and then meeting the kids,” Davis said. “This bill is going to really affect me negatively.”

Davis said most of his students get a one-hour lesson once or twice a week. Without the funding families currently receive for enrichment, however, most wouldn’t be able to afford his lessons, which cost about $50 to $60 per hour.

But the real people losing out are the students, Davis said.

California has the most homeschooled students in the country, with 547,561 children between five and 17 as of 2024, according to a survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. The state saw a 78 percent increase in homeschool students between 2017 and 2022, with the number doubling during COVID.

Currently, California is classified as a low-regulation state for homeschooling by the Home School Legal Defense Association, due to its minimal curriculum control, notification, and testing requirements.

The state’s low regulations and robust charter school options make it an appealing option for families seeking an alternative to public or private school for their children.

Opposition to AB 84 has been organized by a group called Freedom Angels, who argue the bill would cut funding for children’s enrichment programs, threatening the personalized learning models parents have tailored for their children’s unique interests, talents, and learning styles.

“All of that is an ecosystem together, and when you attack one critical part of it, it weakens and damages the entire ecosystem,” Freedom Angels organizer Tara Thornton told The Epoch Times on June 27. “So this is going to affect and impact so many children, their choices, and opportunities.”

Thornton and Denise Aguilar of Freedom Angels are behind the rallies being held at the 30 local district offices of Democratic state senators. The next rally is scheduled for July 14.

Stephanie Dawson (C) and her children, Celeste (L) and Nicholas (R), attend a rally to oppose AB 84 in California on June 23, 2025. Courtesy of Stephanie Dawson

At the local level, homeschooling mom of two Stephanie Dawson has organized groups in Riverside County to rally against the bill. She leads a co-op and is also a school board member at Mission Vista Academy, a non in-person charter school that serves parts of Riverside, Orange, San Diego, and San Bernardino Counties.

Dawson’s 8-year-old son Nicholas takes horseback riding lessons, and drama and zoology classes as part of his homeschool curriculum. Out of pocket, the three enrichment programs through Mission Vista Academy would cost her family approximately $2,000 per school year.

“This (bill) actually would impact most of the children in our co-op, as well,” Dawson told The Epoch Times. “So it’s a big thing in our community.”

AB 84 threatens to shut down most charter schools, including Mission Vista Academy.

“A lot of the aspects of this bill would make it so that these charter schools can’t function,” she said. “Our children can receive services and enrichment programs from non-credentialed vendors with this bill that will no longer be allowed so enrichment programs, such as horseback riding lessons, music lessons, STEM programs would be taken away.”

Many vendors for enrichment programs are small businesses owned by people who are specialists in their field, and don’t necessarily hold traditional teaching credentials, such as the ranches that offer horseback riding lessons and music professionals.

Currently, vendors must be pre-approved by the charter school. If they want to participate, they must apply. Parents select the vendors they want to use and vendors invoice the charter school after services are rendered.

The bill would also prohibit schools sharing staff.

“One of our students in our co-op is going into high school soon,” she said. “So, for example, if he’s enrolled in a charter that gets impacted by this bill, the amount of classes that he’s able to take from the charter school, non in-person, would be reduced because currently, the charters are able to share their staff, including their teachers that teach classes online, for example. If they can’t do that, it reduces how many teachers they have per charter school.”

Like most families in Dawson’s co-op, she says that even without the funding for enrichment programs, she would choose to continue to homeschool her son, who has never been to a brick-and-mortar school.

Dawson has shaped his education around his personalized learning style, his skills, talents, and his interests.

“And that makes his education so much more rich than I'd be able to do if he was going to a traditional school,” she said.

The mother of two touts the benefits of alternative education models. Her daughter Celeste, who is now an adult, went through the public school system until her senior year, which coincided with COVID. She enrolled in Mission Vista, part of their first graduating class, where she thrived after being able to select hand-picked enrichment classes that fed her talents and interests.

“When we’re able to focus on those things, it makes their education so much more enriching. So, for the parents and the families who would like to go that route, who would like to step out of the traditional learning style, because their child would thrive elsewhere. It’s important for us to have those options.”

AB 84 passed the Assembly on June 5 43-25 and is currently in the State Senate, referred to the Committee on Rules for assignment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 19:45

Facebook Is Still The Most Important Social News Network

Facebook Is Still The Most Important Social News Network

According to the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2025, over half of under-35-year-olds in the United States now say that social media/video networks are their main source for accessing news, followed by TV and online news sites.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, among the 12 countries that the Reuters Institute has been tracking on this question since 2014, Facebook and YouTube are still the most important channels for news.

Facebook Is Still the Most Important Social News Network | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Until 2022, Facebook had a reach of 30 percent of all surveyed respondents. This has dropped however to 26 percent, marking a 16 percentage point drop from its peak of 2016.

At the same time, the share of those who consume news via Instagram and Tiktok has risen over recent years, driven by younger demographics.

While just one percent of respondents used TikTok for news in 2020, this figure has recently increased to ten percent.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 19:00

Israel Arms New 'Anti-Hamas' Militias In Gaza: Report

Israel Arms New 'Anti-Hamas' Militias In Gaza: Report

Via The Cradle

Israeli media reported Thursday on the presence of two new, Israeli-backed armed groups operating against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. According to Israeli news outlet Ynet, “one group is active in Gaza City, and the other in Khan Yunis” – where the Israeli military is currently present. 

Ynet had previously reported, citing sources affiliated with the Palestinian Authority (PA), that "new Fatah-aligned militias would soon begin operations in the strip." The same sources told the outlet this week that “these are the very groups now coordinating directly with the IDF,” with both receiving salaries from the PA. 

Illustrative file image, via Flash90

One of the groups is based in Gaza City’s Shujaiya neighborhood – an area known historically as a hotbed of resistance, where Israeli forces are currently preparing to escalate operations. This faction is reportedly linked to Rami Halles, an anti-Hamas activist in Gaza linked to the PA Fatah party. 

The Halles clan has had bad blood with Hamas since the Islamist's movement’s takeover of Gaza years ago. “Halles and his men are heavily armed and are now receiving Israeli protection and operational cover,” sources cited by Ynet say. 

The second militia, based in the southern city of Khan Yunis, is said to be led by a man named Yasser Hnaidek, who “is receiving Israeli aid – both in weapons and humanitarian supplies – as well as a salary from the PA.” He also hails from a Fatah-linked family in Gaza, according to what has been circulating. 

Hnaidek has denied involvement in any such organization. In a video circulating on social media on Thursday, he refutes reports in Hebrew media that he has cooperated with Israel, affirming, “I am with the resistance and the internal front in Gaza,” adding that “Hamas knows who I am.”

The Halles clan has also released a statement denying “any act of treason or cooperation with Israel.”

The Ynet report follows recent information about an Israeli-backed gang operating in the southernmost city of Rafah – led by the Fatah-linked Yasser Abu Shabab, also allegedly linked to ISIS. 

Abu Shabab and his group were confirmed to have been receiving Israeli support, and are behind the looting of humanitarian aid convoys in Gaza. The gang is also responsible for scouting and securing territory ahead of Israeli military operations. Additionally, Abu Shabab has been accused of drug trafficking.

Hamas has given Abu Shabab 10 days to surrender to authorities on charges of treason, armed rebellion, and forming an armed gang, or face trial in absentia, according to a statement by the Hamas-run Interior Ministry in Gaza on 1 July.

In late 2024, the Hamas-run Interior Ministry in Gaza established a police force in the strip called the Arrow (‘Sahem’) Unit, aimed at combating aid looters and militias linked to Israel. 

Clashes have been breaking out recently between the Arrow Unit and these militants.

Abu Shabab’s militia said in early June 2025 that the Arrow Unit had killed “over 50 of our volunteers, including relatives of our leader, Yasser, as we guarded aid convoys and redistributed supplies that were otherwise destined for corrupt entities linked to Hamas.”

Israel continues to accuse Hamas of diverting humanitarian aid for itself – a claim which the UN has publicly rejected.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 18:15

No Love Letters

No Love Letters

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Financial markets got treated with a surprisingly strong June employment gain in the US yesterday, JOLTing 10y Treasury yields nearly 7bp higher and even more so at the front-end of the curve. Indeed, the market’s change of heart saw the implied probability of a 25bp cut in July fall from 25% to around 5%. That’s back to tail-risk area. European rates – briefly interjected by the US data – remained on a downward path, as recent jawboning from ECB officials on the concerns of a EURUSD exchange rate heading and potentially exceeding the 1.20 level has revived expectations that the ECB could still cut rates after the summer, should such a scenario materialize.

European bond yields also fell partly due to an FT report that the EU will propose a permanent “Joint Debt Instrument for Crisis” in mid-July, to be included in the 2028 budget. While joint borrowing was used during COVID-19 and the EU earlier this year adopted a regulation formally establishing the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, which will see the EU raise €150bn for investment in large-scale defence, making it permanent—especially with grants—would be a major step requiring unanimous approval. Countries like Germany oppose more joint debt, but growing defence and infrastructure needs may push the EU toward compromise, as seen during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, President Trump once again delivered on his promise to “act”, as the One Big and Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) got through Congress with a 218-214 vote. As Philip Marey, our US strategist, explains, the act is supposed to include all Trump’s promises on fiscal policy in his second term. The bill extends the expiring 2017 TCJA income tax cuts to avoid a fiscal cliff and introduces new deductions for tips, overtime, and Social Security taxes. It increases defence and immigration spending, while offsetting costs through cuts to Democratic priorities. These include ending EV tax credits, imposing tariffs on foreign-heavy renewable energy projects, and reducing federal funding for SNAP and Medicaid. States are expected to cover the shortfall. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be raised at Trump’s request, despite opposition from fiscal conservatives.

On balance, budget deficits are projected to rise by $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. But this is not how the proponents of the Bill are trying to sell it! On July 1, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the Senate-passed bill would reduce deficits by $0.4 trillion, based on a baseline that assumes the extension of Trump-era tax cuts (TCJA). However, this assumption deviates from the CBO’s 2017 scoring, which expected those tax cuts to expire. By using this altered baseline, the bill appears fiscally responsible, but in reality, it hides the true cost. Or, as Philip puts it: “With a simple shift-in-accounting trick, $3.8 trillion has disappeared into a black hole of time inconsistency."

More importantly, as Philip notes, the frontloading of tax cuts and spending cut delays will cause a fiscal cliff at the end of 2028 that will create political pressure in 2028 to extend the tax cuts and kick the spending cuts further down the road. Therefore, the upward impact on budget deficits in the next 10 years could be even larger. At the same time, the impact on the economy may prove limited as the extensions of the TCJA have been widely anticipated.

How this pans out remains to be seen of course, but the upward debt trajectory, as envisaged by this multi-annual budget would obviously be something that not only investors but also the Fed will have to weigh.

And this HUGE bill really was just one story out there. Indeed, it is hard to keep up for financial markets participants, let alone businesses, these days when it comes to staying abreast with geo-economic and geopolitical events. We could mention the flaring up of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia following the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russian custody, or the unsuccessful call between President Trump and President Putin on “Ukraine” yesterday (which follows the US’s decision to stop crucial weapon and ammunition supplies to Ukraine), but if we just stick to trade there is already a long list of potentially wave-making developments.

Just consider the rising tensions between the EU and China leading China to cancel part of a forthcoming summit on 24-25 July between the two. Those relations have been strained by European EV tariffs and disagreements over China industrial overcapacity issues and industrial policy and has been compounded by recent export controls on rare earths. The EU has announced a host of anti-dumping probes and/or measures against China this year. This morning China announced a 34.9% anti-dumping duty on EU brandy set to start tomorrow following an earlier probe. But the bigger message here appears to be that China is warning Europe not to pick a side – as it is under significant pressure from the US to do so.

So, on that note and after ‘trade deals’ with Vietnam on Wednesday and with Indonesia on Thursday, this suggests that China may be concerned about the imminent risks of ‘transshipment’ clauses ending up in US-EU agreements as well. That things are ‘moving’ behind the curtains seems clear. But whether that means a deal is close.. Frankly, and despite both sides airing a more positive tone on the progress in the trade negotiations recently, markets participants should still be prepared for anything. Nothing has come out of the last formal negotiations between the EU’s Sefcovic and the US’ Greer yesterday. An agreement in principle, postponing the 9 July deadline, seems to be the best the EU can hope for at the moment with time clearly running out. EC President Von der Leyen confirmed as much. While member states are still divided, the EU seems ready to accept a deal in which the 10% universal tariff remains, with exceptions for alcoholic beverages and US commitment that it will be granted (quota) carveouts for the current car and steel tariffs, plus low tariffs on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and aircraft, which are still upcoming. But it is anything but certain that the EU will be able to reach such a deal, given what the EU is willing to offer and that the sectors dubbed key by the EU, are among those the US wants to bring home production of.

In any case, Trump stated that he will be sending letters to about ten to twelve countries today. And those won’t be love letters. No, these letters would announce tariffs to apply as from 1 August, for those countries that will not be able to agree on a trade deal with the US. Trump said “They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs […],” which suggests some countries may be dealt even higher tariffs than initially announced during Liberation Day. Although the date on which these tariffs would come into effect suggests the effective deadline for a deal has been delayed by a few weeks (from 9 July), it doesn’t alter the overall picture of an uncertain, and possibly disappointing, outcome.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 17:56

Hurricane Hunters Set To Probe Tropical Disturbance Near Georgia

Hurricane Hunters Set To Probe Tropical Disturbance Near Georgia

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season began on a very quiet note, with little storm activity during June. However, as we shift into July, meteorologists on X are closely tracking a developing tropical system off Georgia's east coast. The storm appears disorganized and lopsided at this time, but conditions are becoming more favorable for gradual strengthening. Spaghetti models show multiple forecast paths tracking up the U.S. East Coast, through parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and potentially over southern New Jersey—just barely missing New York City.

"We have "Invest 92L" lurking about 100 miles east of the Georgia coast. It's been showing signs of development, with more thunderstorm activity blossoming. It's unclear if a low-level center has formed, but the Hurricane Hunters will investigate soon," weather app MyRadar wrote on X. 

MyRadar noted, "We see it's roiling with convection, or shower/thunderstorm activity. That's a sign of a healthy disturbance. But the system needs a center of circulation to better organize. Maybe there's a low-level swirl buried somewhere in there... maybe not."

"The European model indicates a 70% chance that a tropical or subtropical depression forms," MyRadar said. 

The latest spaghetti models, which display multiple forecast paths for the storm, indicate it may track up the East Coast, moving through the Mid-Atlantic with a more coastal approach, and narrowly miss New York City.

The months of August and September tend to be the most active for hurricane activity. 

The next named storm, by the way, will be called Chantal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 17:30

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