Trump Says He'll Patrol Washington With Police, National Guard Thursday

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said that he will be patrolling the streets with police and the National Guard in Washington on the evening of Aug. 21.

Members of the National Guard patrol near the US Capitol on the National Mall in Washington, on Aug. 20, 2025. Photo by Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

“I’m going to be going out tonight, I think, with the police and with the military, of course. We’re going to do a job,” Trump told Todd Sternes on his radio show.

The president went on to say that the military stationed in Washington is doing a “fantastic job” at law enforcement in the nation’s capital.

President Donald Trump federalized control of the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department on Aug. 11, ordering about 800 National Guard troops to assist with law enforcement.

“I’m announcing a historic action to rescue our nation’s capital from crime, bloodshed, bedlam, and squalor, and worse,“ Trump said at a White House press briefing at the time.

“This is Liberation Day in D.C., and we’re going to take our capital back.”

Starnes responded to Trump’s news of his plans to go on patrol, pondering whether the president would be given a uniform, and joked, “I want to see my president tase someone tonight.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 16:20

Only 17% Of 25-34-Year-Old Americans Have Attained The 5 Major Milestones Of Adulthood

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,m

What I am about to share with you is some of the clearest evidence yet that the middle class in America is being systematically destroyed.  Young adults are forming middle class households at an extremely depressed rate, and that is because the American Dream is simply out of reach for most of them in this very harsh economic environment.  If you can’t get a good job that pays an adequate wage, you aren’t going to be able to live a middle class lifestyle.  Sadly, many older Americans simply do not understand how difficult things have become for our young adults in this day and age.

The Census Bureau has produced a paper entitled “Changes in Milestones of Adulthood” that absolutely blew me away.

According to the Census Bureau, the 5 major milestones of adulthood are living away from your parents, completing your education, getting a job, marrying, and living with a child.  Since 1975, the success that our young people have had in attaining these milestones has declined dramatically…

According to the working paper, “Changes in Milestones of Adulthood,” almost half of all young adults in 1975 had reached four milestones associated with adulthood: moving out of one’s parents’ home, getting a job, getting married and having a child.

Five decades on, that progression has changed dramatically. The share of young adults that have followed the traditional pathway to adulthood has dropped to less than a quarter, according to the paper.

After reading that CBS News article, I had to go find the original paper.

I found it on the official Census Bureau website, and it says that in 2023 only 17 percent of young adults had attained the 5 major milestones of adulthood…

In 2005, the most common combination was young adults who had all five milestones (about 26% experienced all five milestones). By 2023, however, the proportion of young adults who experienced all five markers of adulthood declined to about 17%, and young adults who reported only experiencing the three economic milestones of living away from parents, completing education, and participating in the labor force was the modal combination. Finally, the residual category in Figure 2 representing the proportion of young adults who experienced any other combination of milestones declined from 36% to 30%, suggesting that the experiences of young adults have become more homogeneous for contemporary cohorts.

17 percent!

Just think about that.

If our society was in good shape, most of our young adults would be in a position to achieve all 5 milestones by the age of 25.

But our society is not in good shape.  According to the Census Bureau paper, the primary reason why young adults are not achieving these milestones is because they are “facing economic barriers”…

The reason for this, according to the paper, is that more young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 are facing economic barriers compared with previous generations. Changing societal attitudes around family formation are also contributing to the sharp decline in the share of young people reaching what the U.S. Census Bureau considers to be “key milestones.”

If I keep hitting people with more evidence day after day, maybe the skeptics will finally start getting it.

Our young adults are not entering the middle class fast enough to replace the older middle class adults that are dying off.

As a result, the middle class is steadily shrinking.

To be a part of the middle class, you have to be able to get a middle class job.

And right now the competition for middle class jobs among our young people is extremely fierce.

If you doubt this, just consider what a 23-year-old college graduate recently admitted to NBC News…

“Every guy I know that is without a job right now wants to work, but they just can’t get it,” said Eli McCullick, who has been looking for a job for more than a year after he graduated with a degree in sociology from the University of Colorado Boulder. “It’s demoralizing for guys who really want to get ahead and it’s just not happening.”

McCullick, 23, said he hasn’t even been able to get an hourly job at a restaurant or doing cleaning work at a hotel in the Boulder area, where he’s living at a property his father owns. The only way he has been able to earn money to cover his food and daily expenses has been to do odd jobs for friends and relatives, like shoveling horse manure, mowing lawns and helping an older woman prepare for a yard sale.

There is no way that I would want to be a fresh college graduate looking for a job right now.

It is terrible out there.

Another recent college graduate told NBC News that nearly all of his friends are unemployed and living with their parents…

Sean Breen, who graduated this spring with a communications degree from California State University, Long Beach, said he and nearly all of his high school friends, both men and women, are back home living with their parents and unemployed. He said even those who went to top-ranked colleges and got seemingly in-demand degrees are unable to find work.

“It is like a high school reunion,” Breen said. “We’re all, we are back in Marin County this summer, all unemployed, all trying to find a barista job, a part-time something, because we haven’t found anything.”

After having applied to hundreds of jobs, he said, Breen now plans to go to graduate school in the fall at Trinity College in Ireland, where tuition is significantly lower and, he hopes, jobs will be more plentiful.

This is the reality of what is really going on out there.

Those that keep insisting that “everything is fine” just need to stop.

The job market is freezing up and layoffs have absolutely skyrocketed compared to last year…

Layoffs have risen 140 percent from a year ago, a new report reveals.

Companies have already announced more than 800,000 job cuts this year alone, the highest since the pandemic upended the economy in 2020.

US-based employers cut 62,075 jobs in July compared to 25,885 in the same month last year.

Those numbers are staggering.

Unfortunately, 62 percent of U.S. consumers believe that unemployment will continue to get even worse during the months ahead…

• About 62% of consumers believe unemployment will worsen in the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan’s latest monthly survey.

• That’s bounced around a little in the last few months, but consistently hung around levels not seen since the Great Recession.

Do you remember how difficult it was to get a good job during the Great Recession?

Well, now we are entering a similar time.

That may help to explain why “job hugging” has become a thing in 2025…

Job hugging is the act of holding onto a job “for dear life,” consultants at Korn Ferry, an organizational consulting firm, wrote last week.

The rate at which workers are voluntarily leaving their jobs — known as the quits rate — has hovered around 2% since the start of the year, according to data from the U.S. Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Outside of the initial days of the Covid-19 pandemic, levels haven’t been that consistently low since early 2016.

The quits rate is a barometer of workers’ perceptions of the broader labor market, said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab. In this case, they may be nervous about getting another job or aren’t enthusiastic about their ability to find one, she said.

If you have a job that you highly value, don’t let go.

Hold on to it as tightly as you can, because if you lose it you may not find work again for a long time.

A lot of people are shocked by what is happening, but the truth is that nobody should be surprised.

There was no way that we were going to be able to defy the laws of economics forever.

The inexorable march of time cannot be stopped, and our future is going to look a whole lot different than most people anticipated.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 15:30

The post Putting Universal Medicare Front and Center appeared first on CEPR.

Iranian President Inks Defense Treaty With Belarus, Seeks To 'Overcome US Sanctions'

Via The Cradle

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed 12 cooperation agreements during Pezeshkian’s official visit to Minsk on Wednesday, strengthening ties between the two nations in defiance of US sanctions.

A joint statement was signed alongside the dozen cooperation agreements which cover politics, international law, health, pharmaceuticals, industry, environment, tourism, art, media, free trade zones, industrial and special economic zones, and investment. Officials said the documents lay the foundation for long-term bilateral cooperation.

Iranian and Belarusian presidents, IRNA

Pezeshkian described the visit as “one of the turning points in relations between the two countries,” adding that “relations with Belarus are being pursued at the highest possible level.” 

He emphasized that “the Islamic Republic of Iran places no restrictions on strengthening its relations with Belarus” and that both sides would fully implement the 2023–2026 cooperation roadmap.

The Iranian president pointed to practical steps including joint investments, expanded customs cooperation, increased goods and passenger transit, and resolving private sector issues. He also called for stronger media and cultural exchanges “with the aim of presenting a real image of the two countries.”

At the joint press conference, Pezeshkian criticized the US and its European allies, saying they are “trying to spread unilateralism and dictate their viewpoints on other countries. Such an approach has not been and will not be tolerable by you and us.” 

He added that “western countries, led by the United States, are seeking to carve out our path in accordance with their own wishes,” but that Iran and Belarus “can overcome sanctions and problems by working together seriously.”

Pezeshkian thanked Minsk for supporting Tehran against “the aggressive attacks of the Zionist regime and the United States against Iranian soil and peaceful nuclear facilities,” calling them “a clear aggression against international law and an explicit violation of the UN Charter.”

Iranian president's official welcome ceremony in Minsk:

President of #Belarus officially welcomed #Iran's President in Minsk. https://t.co/fW1XJV4RD0 pic.twitter.com/SZpZFxiUFv

— Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) August 20, 2025

Lukashenko called Iran a reliable partner, saying, “We can discuss all topics of interest and areas of cooperation, and elevate our relations to the highest levels,” later asking Pezeshkian to send his regards to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Both presidents highlighted multilateral organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and BRICS as frameworks to expand cooperation beyond Western-led structures.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 14:40

The Last Global Neoliberal Institutional Pillar Could Soon Crumble

By Michael Every of Rabobank

We’re All In A Hole Alright

The Fed minutes overnight showed the FOMC largely united behind rates on hold in July as they “assessed that the effects of higher tariffs had become more apparent in the prices of some goods but that their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remained to be seen.” Indeed, the key point was that they “judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs.”

Does anybody anywhere know how the current confluence of inflationary and deflationary forces will play out? In the UK, for example, where the BoE are already cutting rates, headline inflation is 3.8% y-o-y, nearly double target. There are real signs of economic weakness, but also real inflation in pocket and lingering on in services.

One would hope the top central bankers about to assemble at Jackson Hole are laser-focused on this. The Financial Times editorial today argues their collective focus should be on staying independent, getting better economic data, and understanding how government spending drives inflation better. There are problems with each – and more to boot.

Bloomberg says Jackson Hole will rally around under-fire Fed Chair Powell, which seems logical. Yet Powell is still likely to see his replacement named within weeks, it appears; moreover, David Zervos -- one of the potential candidates to succeed him -- just said it’s inaccurate to describe the Fed as independent, and claimed Powell is aligned with the political left. And will Jackson Hole also rally round Fed Governor Cook, who just had a criminal referral letter for mortgage fraud sent to the DOJ by the head of the FHFA? Trump has called on her to resign: she says she won’t be bullied. We have of course seen similar Fed governor turnover in recent years.

While each central bank is different in terms of its constitutional set-up, how many of them are truly safe in their (very recent in historical terms) independence when push comes to shove? Who appoints whom? That’s a one-way street. As tellingly, what can central banks do to ensure their independence if it’s threatened? ”Raise rates?”(!) Yes, some central banks have done so in the past to hurt governments they didn’t like: no, they won’t do that now. But it might delay rate cuts, perhaps. Or might they not buy their own government’s bonds in a market panic ensuing from fears over their loss of independence? There’s a discussion point with strong views either side, depending on which country we are talking about.

In short, on one level we are talking personalities here; on another we are talking underlying political-economy ideologies; and on another we are talking realpolitik and power structures.

Meanwhile, what’s true for central banking is even more starkly evident in the world they are now operating in.

Stunning Europe, but not a surprise to those who think in the terms described above, Russia now says it must be included in any Ukraine security guarantees - along with China. Russia also says no talks with Zelenskyy are on the horizon.

The unwillingness to talk to Ukraine is no surprise for Europe; but the Russian insistence that it gets to determine what Ukraine’s security guarantees look like -- and that it wants China involved, perhaps even meaning the PLA operating on the ground(?) -- is a geopolitical and diplomatic shock of the highest order for Brussels.

(And that comes on top of reports that European Commission President von der Leyen was reportedly asked to leave the room at times during Monday’s White House discussions on Ukraine because she wasn’t “a leader” nor “an elected head of state.”)

As Politico puts it bluntly, ‘Russia wants… Russia to have veto over Western security guarantees for Ukraine’ while ‘Europe has no real solutions for security guarantees on Ukraine’. The stakes here are sky high and so are the market’s fat tail risks.

Is Putin risking the massive increase in US and EU primary and secondary sanctions that could disrupt global trade and markets? Or will the US accept his terms, seeing Ukraine and Europe humbled even further? On one hand, that’s a ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ markets environment alongside the total defenestration of European strategic autonomy, with real long-run implications for its economy. On the other, it’s a likely rapid surge in energy prices and a massive supply chain shock as long-threatened global bifurcation accelerates rapidly.

On which note, Indian state firms reportedly secured several shipments of Russian crude recently, ignoring US warnings of higher tariffs, while Russia says it plans to start sending LNG to India, an area the US had been targeting. Moscow also called for “greater Eurasian partnership” between itself, China (which is rejecting Nvidia H20 after recent “insulting” comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick, and which may launch CNY stablecoins ahead), and India. That all raises the stakes from the current stand-off over Ukraine even higher. And that’s as a serious US Navy flotilla heads for oil-rich Venezuela, run by “narco-terrorist” President Maduro, who has a $50m US reward on his head: hello, Monroe Doctrine.

(Moreover, purely for the ECB to consider, ‘US drug pricing shake-up threatens access to medicines in Europe’ (Politico). Does that sound inflationary or deflationary?)

So, are the Jackson Hole central bankers worried about their futures; a lack of accurate data; and their own poor understanding of how governments drive inflation as defence spending is about to return to Cold War levels also following these developments? They are supposed to be ‘forward looking’, right? What’s their base-case scenario then? Does their modelling capture these risks? Will they make that clear, or are we supposed to imply it from what they share? Of course, I’m being facetious.

The reality is central banks will just wait and see what happens to energy prices and supply chains, then react. That puts their much-vaunted ‘independence’ into perspective: it’s more of a reaction function outside of the kind of ‘Econ 101’ world we no longer live in. Regrettably, few in the private sector have that luxury, and many must position/hedge such risks in advance.

If we were to see change at the Fed that drives a wedge between it and other central banks -- with the PBOC already far from independent in the Western sense -- the last global neoliberal institutional pillar could crumble, as I warned in Thin Ice in 2016. If it goes, so could a lot else.

Already, what’s good for one central bank isn’t necessarily good for another. The RBNZ governor just told the Kiwi parliament (where the government has tweaked the Reserve Bank’s remit in the recent past: there is political plasticity even in the home of inflation-targeting) that higher commodity prices and lower rates are the ingredient for an economic recovery in H2. Not elsewhere though, surely? They mostly don’t want the higher commodity prices part.

There’s certainly a lot for the world’s top central bankers to consider over the next few days, and vastly more than the FT would have it - because we’re all in a hole alright.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 14:40

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 August. ...

10-16 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 66.3% (-0.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.51 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$104.50 (-0.5%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until the Fall travel period.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Russia Attacks US-Owned Factory In Ukraine, While Insisting It Has Veto Power Over Any 'Security Guarantees'

Now nearly a week out from last Friday's historic Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, the White House has had to temper its positive predictions on the peace process, after prematurely touting that a Putin and Zelensky bilateral meeting was on the horizon. By Wednesday the Kremlin had made it clear this is not yet the case.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued some non-committal statements, watering down what appeared an already vague commitment. A future direct meeting with the Ukrainian leader - a president which Moscow previously dubbed illegitimate - would have to be prepared "gradually... starting with the expert level and thereafter going through all the required steps."

A separate Russian official has stated that "it shouldn't be a meeting for the sake of a meeting" - highlighting that despite Trump's strong diplomatic efforts, Russia remains 'open' but doesn't consider the warring sides to have bridged key major gaps on peace terms just yet.

As Trump's peace process stalls once again, Russia has just attacked an American electronics factory in Western Ukraine. Telegram/AFP via Getty Images

On Thursday The Wall Street Journal underscored that there's yet another key divide - the question of future security guarantees and how they will be monitored or implemented: 

Russia warned on Wednesday that it should effectively hold veto power over any action to assist Ukraine after a peace deal is reached, rendering planned Western security guarantees for Kyiv moot and delivering a setback to negotiations championed by President Trump. 

...Lavrov’s insistence that Russia must have a say in how any security guarantees for Ukraine would be enacted contradicted the Trump administration's assertion that Putin agreed to European and U.S. security guarantees at the Alaska summit on Friday.

Lavrov’s remarks were a potent sign that Moscow’s maximalist demands in the war haven’t shifted despite a surge in diplomatic engagement in recent days. Western security assurances to deter against future Russian invasions are key to getting Ukraine to sign on to a peace deal.

Russia has never wavered on insisting that NATO or Western forces never be allowed to patrol or have a presence in Ukraine. Moscow's war justification from the beginning has been focused on the question of NATO expansion, and demanding permanent Ukrainian neutrality.

Strangely, while President Trump has this week assured Russia of 'no US boots on the ground' - the White House spokesperson at the same time suggested there could be some kind of pledged US or Western air support as part of future security guarantees. But the messaging has been contradictory as at the same time Trump has been pledging 'minimal' American involvement in any future security guarantees for Ukraine.

Moscow will likely present the targeted Mukachevo plant as military or 'dual use' in nature...

Ukraine: U.S. company Flex’s plant in Mukachevo was destroyed in Russian missile strike.

The factory produced electronics like fitness trackers, health monitors, and coffee machines for brands such as Nike, Google, and Lenovo. It had just been renovated in April.

At the time of… pic.twitter.com/YnpCpiCQIb

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 21, 2025

Geopolitical news source Moon of Alabama reacted as follows:

While Russia is confidently prosecuting the war in Ukraine towards its inevitable end. Meanwhile the 'West' is still negotiating with itself about the conditions under which it will have to capitulate.

Discussions continue about 'security guarantees' for Ukraine even as the only serious ones are those that Russia is willing to give. The confused arguments about 'guarantees' are reflected in the reports of them. Consider this nonsense:

"A security guarantee could encompass a wide range of issues. In return for Russia ending its invasion, a security pact could include a pledge of U.S. air support for any European-led operations should Russian troops resume their assault."

If Russia ends the war NATO-like 'security guarantees' are to be given to Ukraine as a reward?

Indeed, it's as if Trump and his top officials still don't understand the core problems, or at least purposefully ignore what remain the root causes to this war.

Trump wants to see more rapid momentum and engagement come out of the Alaska summit, hoping for a Putin-Zelensky summit within days or weeks. But that's very unlikely to happen, also given Zelensky - with the encouragement of the more hawkish European allies - has still not offered substantive compromise. He reportedly isn't even willing to lift restrictions on the use of the Russian language in public discourse or media.

The US president is meanwhile venting his frustrations on Thursday...

Looks like Trump is upset with Putin bombing an American electronics plant in Ukraine — and refusing to meet Zelensky. Let’s see what, if anything, this will mean for Ukraine’s ability to hit deep inside Russia. pic.twitter.com/vWvN5AggYg

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) August 21, 2025

This is in reference to fresh reports - noted in the above images - that a "massive Russian airstrike hit a US-owned electronics factory in Ukraine early Thursday while some 800 civilians were working there."

"The Flex Ltd. plant in Mukachevo, a city hundreds of miles from the front line, was engulfed in flames after being hit by two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles around 4:30 a.m., according to Ukrainian officials," NY Post details.

At this point, Trump is likely to grow more frustrated as more days inevitably pass and there are no further grand compromises to be made, except by the Ukrainian side and its Western backers - given Russian forces' ascendancy in the war theatre.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 13:30

"100% By Accident": Scientists Stumble Upon Laser-Free LASIK Alternative

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A chemistry professor trying to heat cartilage with electricity made a mistake that could change eye surgery. Michael Hill at Occidental College accidentally used too little current in his experiment - and stumbled upon a discovery that might replace LASIK with a gentler treatment that reshapes corneas without ever cutting the eye.

Nicoleta Ionescu/Shutterstock

The discovery may offer hope for the millions of people living with poor vision who want an alternative to glasses and contact lenses but are wary of LASIK’s risks. While laser eye surgery is generally successful, it involves cutting into the eye and can cause complications including dry eyes, vision problems, and in rare cases, severe side effects.

Happy Accident Behind the Discovery

The breakthrough happened entirely by chance when Hill and his collaborator, Dr. Brian Wong, a professor of otolaryngology-head and neck surgery at the University of California–Irvine, were frustrated with their attempts to reshape cartilage using lasers.

Hill said that they decided to try heating the material using an electric current, but accidentally used a far smaller current than they intended. They expected to see the cartilage bubbling and shaking. However, when Wong touched the cartilage, it wasn’t hot—suggesting another effect was at play.

While Wong is a medical professional, Hill is a physical chemist, and it was their partnership that allowed them to connect the dots.

Low electrical currents change the pH of cartilage, loosening molecular bonds and making tissues more malleable.

“And it’s like, this is electrochemistry,” Wong said. “That’s hydrogen and oxygen being evolved, so the discovery was entirely by accident on cartilage—100 percent by accident.”

Alternative to Carving the Eye With a Laser

Hill’s team has developed a technique called electromechanical reshaping (EMR) that uses small electric currents to make the cornea—the clear, dome-shaped front part of the eye—more malleable, then molds it into the correct shape.

The electrical current makes the cornea tissue more moldable, like clay. Once the electricity stops, the tissue locks into its new configuration.

In tests on rabbit eyes, the process took about a minute—comparable to LASIK’s speed but without incisions, expensive laser equipment, or tissue removal.

The cornea focuses light onto the retina. If it’s misshapen, vision becomes blurry. LASIK surgery corrects this by using a laser to burn a small amount of material to reshape the cornea, but it’s an invasive procedure with potential risks.

“LASIK is just a fancy way of doing traditional surgery. It’s still carving tissue—it’s just carving with a laser,” said Hill in a press statement. He will present his findings at the American Chemical Society’s fall meeting in August.

The team repeated the process on 12 rabbit eyeballs, 10 of which had simulated nearsightedness. In all cases, the treatment adjusted the eye’s focusing power, indicating potential for vision correction. The cells in the eyeballs survived because the researchers carefully controlled the tissue’s acidity levels.

They also demonstrated that the technique might reverse some corneal cloudiness caused by chemical damage, which currently requires corneal transplants.

Hill and Wong are now investigating whether the cornea can be reshaped without incisions, using EMR.

Dr. James R. Kelly, an ophthalmologist at Kelly Vision and director of Refractive Surgery Education at Northwell Health in New York, who was not involved in the study, said in an interview with The Epoch Times that EMR could “in theory” significantly reduce certain complication risks by avoiding incisions or ablation.

“There’s no flap to dislocate, no laser-induced tissue removal, and less disturbance to the corneal nerve supply,” he said. This could mean fewer dry eye symptoms after surgery. “Additionally, if EMR proves reversible, that would be a major safety advantage over current laser-based techniques,” he added.

Greater Safety and Accessibility

Hill noted that the team’s goal was to come up with a technique that was more accessible and safer than current laser-based treatments.

However, EMR temporarily alters the tissue pH, and there are “potential risks” involved—and those risks can only be sorted out through a live study, he said.

“We have data on ex vivo specimens that suggest the electrochemical technique does not cause acute changes to the underlying collagen structure of the cornea, nor does it immediately cause cellular necrosis, but these data are very, very limited,” Hill said.

Kelly said his biggest concern is whether the reshaping will hold up over time and remain uniform.

He noted that the cornea is “biologically active” and its collagen structure and hydration can change with healing, aging, or inflammation. Without long-term in-vivo data, “we don’t know if the refractive effect will regress, shift unpredictably, or affect corneal transparency.”

Kelly added that “durability, stability, and optical quality” over many years will be key tests for EMR before it can be considered a viable alternative to LASIK, and believes it could be 20 years or more before this technique becomes commercially available—if it ever does.

While funding uncertainties have temporarily halted progress, Hill remains optimistic, noting there’s a “long road” between what has been accomplished and clinical use.

“Our next steps are definitely to carry out a live-animal study.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 13:10

Globalists Are Rebranding Their "Woke Capitalism" Agenda After Crushing Setbacks

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

People who carefully track the machinations of globalist institutions might have noticed a disturbing atmosphere of silence since the 2024 elections. I discussed this trend a few months ago in my article “Globalists Go Radio Silent As NATO Flirts With World War III”, specifically the dramatic shift that has taken place since the pandemic when organizations like the World Economic Forum ripped the mask off completely and admitted their true authoritarian intentions.

By the end of 2021, most of the world was under maniacal technocratic control and the globalists seemed to think they had western civilization by the balls. The elites were constantly in the media openly touting their plans, from perpetual covid lockdowns, to vaccine passports, to climate lockdowns, to cashless digital monetary systems where all economic liberty is lost, to the “sharing economy” where private property is abolished, to the Fourth Industrial Revolution in which AI runs everything, to the “Great Reset” which would completely undermine the free market system and herald a socialist dystopia.

In my 20 years as an economist, writer and analyst in the liberty movement I have never seen the globalists reveal their true intentions so brazenly. The pandemic exposed an incredible number of people to the underlying reality of the “New World Order” and in that span of around three years the awakening skyrocketed. The number of patriots born during covid was unprecedented.

People realized it wasn’t a mere conspiracy theory. World events were not simply random products of chance and chaos. There was indeed a smoky god-damn room filled with nefarious plotting parasites. The march towards global governance was real and now everyone except the dumbest of the dumb knows it.

The powers-that-be were so confident in the success of their endeavor that they essentially proclaimed global government by bureaucrats and corporations in the very midst of covid. Calling it the “Council for Inclusive Capitalism” working in collusion with the Vatican.

The question we have to ask today is, where did it all go? The globalists were so confident and bold and now they are reticent. Did they give up? Or, are they rebranding their agenda yet again?

For example, in 2020 almost no one knew what ESG was. By 2023 everyone understood that the meaningless acronym for “Environmental, Social, Governance” is actually an insidious cover designed to hide the woke capitalism agenda.

Woke capitalism, also known as inclusive capitalism, is a centralization program which links together governments, bureaucratic agencies, NGOs as well as international banks and corporations under one ideological umbrella (globalism, multiculturalism, DEI, climate change, etc). This massive cartel uses monetary incentives and extortion to force businesses and individuals to conform to a woke/socialist model.

For the last decade these groups have been funding a suffocating propaganda campaign, forcing woke indoctrination onto the masses. However, the globalists didn’t comprehend the level of push-back that they ultimately encountered.

In their arrogance, they ended up inspiring more resistance, not less. And so, terms like ESG and DEI are being abandoned. Even Lynn Forester de Rothschild, head of the Council for Inclusive Capitalism, was forced to admit that ESG is dead and needs to be rebranded.

Within the occult methodology the natural solution would be to adopt new organizations and new names but maintain the same goals. I’ve noticed that this happens often with the globalists. At one point the majority of their planning was done within the Council on Foreign Relations and the Bilderberg Group. Then it was the Club Of Rome and the UN. Then it was the IMF. Then the focus switched to Davos and the WEF.

They used the term “New World Order”, then switched to “Multipolar World Order”, then to “the Great Reset” and the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”. This makes it very difficult for researchers to track the most current mechanisms of the conspiracy.

I have found that, in the last year, “Stakeholder Capitalism” has become the fresh code for much of their renewed efforts. It’s not a new term, but it is being used more often by the elites to draw less attention. Some use the phrase “stakeholder capitalism 3.0” or “third phase stakeholder capitalism”.

The original idea being that corporations can no longer make profits a priority. Rather, they must produce equal outcomes (not just equal opportunities) in order to participate in the interdependent international economy. In order to get access to the system, companies must promote approved narratives on climate and social justice, as well as partner with governments and NGOs to make DEI equity a reality.

The companies that don’t participate will face pressure from government officials and will not be able to compete with companies that comply. The problem is, this requires that meritocracy be erased and that producers be forced to subsidize feeders on a planetary scale. That is to say, stakeholder capitalism is global communism cloaked in the humanist costume of corporate responsibility.

The World Economic Forum seems to be doubling down on ESG and stakeholder capitalism with Blackrock CEO Larry Fink at the helm, despite growing public opposition.  Though, Blackrock has removed a majority of ESG and DEI related language from their corporate reports.

I recently came across an article published at the end of July from the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance which outlines the more discreet evolution of ESG (and DEI) in 2025. It reiterates similar observations made by globalists over the past year, that ESG must be rebranded but not abandoned.

It argues that the old political virtue signaling and compliance checklists of the last decade must be set aside (for now) and that stakeholder capitalism should be presented as a “win-win” for the companies and communities involved. It is, in a way, an attempt to sell conservatives on the idea of ESG.

One argument is that companies that engage in ESG-like policies “make more money” and gain more share value. Limited data is produced to support this claim, and I would point out that stock markets overall have been on a frightening bull run since the election.

Companies that are NOT engaging in ESG are doing just as well as those that are, at least…in the US. Harvard notes that outflows from ESG funds are prevalent in America, but in the EU they are becoming more successful. I’m seeing similar trends in Canada and Australia – Anywhere that governments are working with globalists to enforce DEI standards on companies, ESG funds are obviously going to outperform.

It’s a cartel, remember, and western political leaders are the enforcers. The US is the only place where ESG is in retreat. This could change in the near term as Europeans grow increasingly rebellious against the multicultural coup, but it does illustrate the fact that woke capitalism (stakeholder capitalism) cannot survive without government intervention.

This is not to say that progress in the fight against globalism has not been made. I grow tired of blackpilled mouth-breathers that act as if there have been no victories and that everything is going “according to the globalist plan”. If this was true then they would have proudly and publicly moved forward with their Great Reset instead of running back into the shadows.

That said, vigilance requires temperance. Behind the scenes many corporations are still introducing woke policies and they are even advancing the globalist takeover in Europe. The fight must focus on these specific companies and their NGO partners; it is not the job of corporations (or leftist politicians and NGOs) to enact social engineering. They are not qualified to determine the greater good because they are not good people. They are driven by the desire for power, not morality or reason.

The globalists have lost the information war, but they keep coming back because they have yet to face real world consequences for their hubris. The only way to end the nightmare permanently is to dissolve the structures that give them their influence, or, remove them from the equation entirely.

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 12:30

Appeals Court Tosses Trump's $454 Million Civil Fraud Judgement As Prez Claims 'Total Victory'

A New York appeals court has tossed out a $454 million civil fraud judgement handed down last year against Donald Trump, his family, and his company. 

 New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron, Donald Trump

While the Appellate Division's First Department upheld the ruling, it found that the $454 million penalty was excessive and at odds with the Eighth Amendment.

"The documentary evidence supports Supreme Court's conclusion that the Attorney General made a prima facie showing that each defendant participated in the fraudulent scheme," reads the opinion. "The trial record is also replete with evidence supporting the court's determination that the individual defendants had the requisite intent to defraud, a necessary element of each Penal Law claim."

The decision comes after New York Attorney General Letitia James’s office asked an appeals court last August to uphold the $454 million civil fraud judgment against Trump. 

The appellate judges, however, said of the judgement; "while harm certainly occurred, it was not the cataclysmic harm that can justify a nearly half billion-dollar award to the State."

In response to the decision, President Trump claimed 'TOTAL VICTORY in the FAKE New York State Attorney General Letitia James Case!" 

"The amount, including Interest and Penalties, was over $550 Million Dollars. It was a Political Witch Hunt, in a business sense, the likes of which no one has ever seen before. This was a Case of Election Interference by the City and State trying to show, illegally, that I did things that were wrong when, in fact, everything I did was absolutely CORRECT and, even, PERFECT," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The case can now be appealed by either side to the state's highest court, the New York Court of Appeals.

"Today's ruling by the New York appeals court is a resounding victory for President Trump and his company," Trump's former personal attorney, Alina Habba, said in response. "The court struck down the outrageous and unlawful $464 million penalty, confirming what we have said from the beginning: the Attorney General’s case was politically motivated, legally baseless, and grossly excessive." 

Today’s ruling by the New York appeals court is a resounding victory for President Trump and his company. The court struck down the outrageous and unlawful $464 million penalty, confirming what we have said from the beginning: the Attorney General’s case was politically…

— Alina Habba (@AlinaHabba) August 21, 2025

Following a three-month civil trial last year, Judge Arthur Engoron found Trump liable for inflating his net worth to secure better business deals, writing in his decision that Trump and his co-defendants engaged in frauds that "leap off the page and shock the conscience," adding "Their complete lack of contrition and remorse borders on pathological. They are accused only of inflating asset values to make more money. The documents prove this over and over again."

Trump has long claimed that the case was politically motivated, saying "I've been persecuted by someone running for office," referring to NY Attorney General Letitia James, who brought the case - and is currently under investigation for her own real estate fraud. 

In his February decision, Engoron temporarily barred Trump and his family from leading New York-based companies, along with the $454 million fine. With interest, the penalty was closer to half-a-billion dollars. 

Trump denied all wrongdoing - arguing that the alleged victims in the case were sophisticated banks who were happy to go into business with the Trump Organization, and profited from the deals. Meanwhile, Trump's lawyers argued that James violated the statue of limitations, misapplied the relevant law, and encouraged the excessive penalty. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 12:10

Lisa Cook'd: DOJ To Investigate Fed Governor, Urges Her Removal Over Alleged Mortgage Fraud

The saga surrounding the upcoming termination of the Fed's DEI hire just escalated dramatically after the Justice Department announced it would investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook, after a top Justice official informed Fed Chair Jerome Powell of the probe and encouraged him to remove her from the board, in a letter sent Thursday.

Ed Martin, the DOJ official who led similar investigations into Adam Schiff NYAG General Letitia James, told Powell that Cook’s case “requires further examination.” 

"At this time, I encourage you to remove Ms. Cook from your Board,” Martin wrote. “Do it today before it is too late! After all, no American thinks it is appropriate that she serve during this time with a cloud hanging over her."

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte wrote a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Martin on Aug. 15 suggesting that Cook may have committed a criminal offense. The letter alleged that Cook “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.”

Cook on Wednesday said she intended to remain at the central bank, after Trump also called for her resignation. She may, however, find that difficult to do with a criminal probe - or worse - hanging over her head. 

“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said in an emailed statement via a Fed spokesperson. “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”

“This is a new attempt of the administration to gain more control over the Fed,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist. “They’re pulling as many different levers as they can find to get that control.” The outspoken Democrat Sahm is best known for dumping on her own "rule' - which was ripped off from Goldman's former chief economist Ed McKelvey - so the spike in unemployment wouldn't show the US economy as sinking into a recession during the Biden admin. 

A resignation would create another opening for Trump to fill on the Fed board as the president piles pressure on the central bank to lower rates. Trump has lashed out at Powell as “Too Late” for not slashing rates months ago, and suggested he too should step aside. Trump has also heavily criticized Powell and the Fed over the cost of its ongoing headquarters renovation project.

One Trump’s campaign to eliminate Cook is successful, it will give him the opportunity to exert more influence over the US central bank by securing a majority on its seven-member board of governors.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 11:56

Beijing's Olive Branch: Boeing In Talks On 500-Jet Mega Deal

With the tariff trade truce extended to November 10, U.S. and Chinese negotiators are working toward a trade deal ahead of a possible meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping later this year. Key issues include the flow of critical Chinese rare earth minerals to the U.S. and Beijing's access to advanced Nvidia chips for its AI firms.

Now, a well-calculated olive branch from Beijing appears to have surfaced: a Bloomberg report indicates Boeing is in discussions to sell 500 commercial jets to Chinese airlines, signaling China's willingness to deal. 

The report is based on sources familiar with the potential transaction that is still being worked out. The "mega sale", as described by Bloomberg journalists, has been "years in the making, is contingent on the two nations diffusing the trade hostilities that hark back to Trump's first term in office — and could still fall apart." 

People familiar with the deal say Chinese officials have already begun talks with domestic airlines about how many Boeing jets will be needed to expand their fleets. The report did not specify which models, whether single-aisle or widebody.

This potential aircraft order appears to be part of Beijing's bargaining chips with Washington and will likely be at the center of any trade agreement. 

The Biden-Harris regime made no proper attempts to ensure Boeing orders to China would ramp back to pre-2019 levels. 

Source: Bloomberg

China is the world's second-largest aviation market, primarily relying on Airbus and Boeing jets. It is expected to double its commercial fleet to nearly 10,000 aircraft over the next two decades.

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg's news story sent Boeing shares up as much as 3.7% in premarket trading. The stock has been stuck in a 5.5-year channel following the twin 737 Max crashes, other aircraft setbacks, and investor pessimism fueled by toxic DEI initiatives on jet production lines.  

The timing of this report suggests China is using aircraft orders as bargaining chips ahead of Trump-Xi talks. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 11:50

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

• $422,400: Median existing-home price for all housing types, up 0.2% from one year ago ($421,400) – the 25th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% for this cycle in May 2021 and bottomed at -3.0% in May 2023. Prices are now up 0.2% YoY.

On a month-over-month basis, median prices decreased 2.4% from the peak in June. This is more than the normal seasonal decrease in the median price for July. Typically, the NAR median price increases in the Spring, and tends to peak seasonally in the June report. The median price will likely decline until early 2026.

The median price tends to lead the Case-Shiller index, and this suggests a lower YoY increase in the Case-Shiller index as in May over the next couple of months.

There is much more in the article.

US Manufacturing Activity "Unexpectedly" Soars To Highest Since 2022

One month after unexpectedly sliding into contraction for the first time in 2025, moments ago the S&P Manufaturing PMI even more unexpectedly soared from 49.8 to 53.3, not only smashing expectations of another decline to 49.7 and printing well above the highest economist forecast and in fact printing 7-sigma above the median estimate...

... but was the highest print since May 2022! According to S&P's PMI report, the surge signaled "a renewed improvement of factory business conditions after a brief deterioration in July." 

At the same time the S&P Services PMI declined from last month's red hot 55.7 to 55.4, but still beat estimates of 54.2. As a result, the composite PMI of US business activity grew at the fastest rate recorded so far this year in August, rising to 55.4 from 55.1, matching the previous post-covid high from Dec 2024 and  adding to signs of a strong third quarter. Output has now grown continually for 31 months, with the latest two months seeing the strongest back-to-back expansions since the spring of 2022. 

According to the report, growth was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Hiring also picked up. Most notably, job creation reached one of the highest rates seen over the past three years as companies reported the largest build-up in uncompleted work since May 2022.

Some more details:

• Production rose for a third successive month, rising at a pace not recorded since May 2022, buoyed by the largest influx of new orders since February 2024.
• Factory employment meanwhile rebounded after a decline in July to register the largest payroll gain since March 2022. Inventories of inputs also rose sharply after a drop in July.
• That left only the suppliers delivery times index acting as a drag on the PMI (reflecting faster deliveries), but to a lesser degree than in July.
• Backlogs rose at an unchanged and therefore joint-steepest rate since May 2022 in the services economy, while manufacturing backlogs also rose to the greatest extent in over three years.
• While many manufacturers reported improved sales and demand, the upturn in production and order inflows was in part linked to renewed inventory building. Stocks of finished goods rose to an extent not previously recorded since data were first available in 2007, while stocks of purchased inputs showed the second-largest rise seen for over three years.
• While stock building was partly fueled by expectations of rising demand, some factories also reported increased safety-stock building amid fears of supply shortages or to protect against further price rises, in turn reflecting the recent impact of import tariffs.

There was more good news when it comes to jobs: employment rose for a sixth successive month, with the pace of job creation hitting the highest since January (and one of the strongest rates seen for over three years). Service providers took on staff at the fastest pace for seven months while factory job gains reached the highest since March 2022. Companies largely took on additional staff in response to rising backlogs of work. Uncompleted orders rose for a fifth consecutive month, rising in August at a pace unsurpassed since May 2022 reflecting stronger demand and near-term capacity constraints at some companies.

There were some concerns on the price side, with tariffs reported as the key driver of further cost increases in August. Companies across both manufacturing and service sectors collectively reported the steepest rise in input prices since May and the second-largest increase since January 2023. Rates of increase accelerated in both sectors. While the manufacturing cost rise was especially large, being the second-steepest since August 2022, the service sector increase was the second-highest since June 2023. Average prices charged for goods and services rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 as firms passed higher costs on to customers. Although goods price inflation cooled slightly for a second month in a row, it remained among the highest seen over the past three years. Service sector price inflation meanwhile was the sharpest since August 2022.

Business confidence in the outlook also improved but remained much weaker than seen at the start of the year as companies reported ongoing concerns over the impact of government policies, especially in relation to tariffs. Tariffs were again widely cited as the principal cause of sharply higher costs, which in turn fed through to the steepest rise in average selling prices recorded over the past three years. 

Commenting on the report, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said that the "strong flash PMI reading for August adds to signs that US businesses have enjoyed a strong third quarter so far. The data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate, up from the average 1.3% expansion seen over the first two quarters of the year."

“Companies across both manufacturing and services are reporting stronger demand conditions, but are struggling to meet sales growth, causing backlogs of work to rise at a pace not seen since the pandemic-related capacity constraints recorded in early 2022. Stock building of finished goods has also risen at a survey record pace, linked in part to worries over future supply conditions."

 “While this upturn in demand has fueled a surge in hiring, it has also bolstered firms’ pricing power. Companies have consequently passed tariff-related cost increases through to customers in increasing numbers, indicating that inflation pressures are now at their highest for three years."

 As a result, the economist concludes that the "rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months. Indeed, combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes.”

In other words, the report coming unexpectedly strong, may be just an attempt by the traditionally anti-Trumpian S&P to pressure the Fed into maintaining a hawkish bias even as the labor market - at least as measured by most other 3rd parties - continues to deteriorate. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 10:13

FDA Warns Public Over Potentially Radioactive Walmart Shrimp

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Tuesday told the U.S. public not to eat, sell, or serve certain imported Walmart frozen shrimp produced by an Indonesian company because it may have been exposed to a radioactive material.

Health officials said in a statement that it is investigating reports of Cesium-137 contamination in shipping containers as well as shrimp products that were processed by Indonesia-based PT. Bahari Makmur Sejati, also known as BMS Food.

The shrimp was sold in Walmart locations in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, and West Virginia, according to a notice from the FDA.

“If you recently purchased one of the impacted lots of Great Value raw frozen shrimp from Walmart, throw it away,” the FDA said in the notice. “Do not eat or serve this product.”

Retailers and distributors in the United States are also advised to dispose of the frozen shrimp product and should not serve it, the agency added.

The FDA also advised people who believe they may have been exposed to Cesium-137, a radioactive isotope of the element cesium that can increase the risk of cancer in people, that they should speak with a health care provider.

Cesium-137 is a byproduct of nuclear reactions, including nuclear bombs, testing, reactor operations, and accidents. It’s widespread around the world, with trace amounts found in the environment, including soil, food, and air.

Elevated amounts of the radioactive isotope may be present in high-contamination areas, including Chernobyl, Ukraine, in 1986, and Fukushima, Japan, in 2011, after nuclear plant disasters, the FDA has said.

The FDA recommended that Walmart recall the Great Value brand frozen shrimp from stores after federal officials detected Cesium-137 in shipping containers and a sample of breaded shrimp imported from Indonesia, the FDA also said.

The level detected in the frozen breaded Walmart shrimp was far lower than FDA intervention levels. However, the agency said that avoiding potentially contaminated products could reduce exposure to low-level radiation that could lead to health problems over time.

The Epoch Times contacted Walmart for comment on Wednesday.

Walmart immediately recalled the products, a company spokesperson told news outlets this week. Consumers should discard the products or return them to any Walmart store for a refund, the spokesperson added.

According to the FDA notice, the impacted products include Great Value brand frozen raw shrimp, lot code: 8005540-1, Best by Date: 3/15/2027; Great Value brand frozen raw shrimp, lot code: 8005538-1, Best by Date: 3/15/2027; and Great Value brand frozen raw shrimp, lot code: 8005539-1, Best by Date: 3/15/2027.

Symptoms of radiation sickness can include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, fever, fatigue, low blood pressure, infections, hair loss, weakness and fatigue, and mental changes, according to the Mayo Clinic.

Last week, the FDA issued an import alert for PT. Bahari Makmur Sejati for all shrimp products imported into the United States, while the agency said in its Tuesday notice that the Indonesian company was “added to the red list of this alert” to ensure “that no implicated shrimp products will enter U.S. commerce until the company resolves the conditions that gave rise to the appearance of the violation.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 10:10

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Increase in July

Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. ...

Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. ...

• 2.0% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million in July.

• Year-over-year: 0.8% increase in existing-home sales

• 0.6% increase in unsold inventory – 1.55 million units equal to 4.6 months' supply.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in July (4.01 million SAAR) were up 2.0% from the previous month and were up 0.8% compared to the July 2024 sales rate.  
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.55 million in July from 1.54 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 15.7% year-over-year (blue) in July compared to July 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.6 months in July from 4.7 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

Bullard Backs 100bps In 2025 Rate Cuts In Hopes Of Replacing Powell

With candidates hoping to replace Jerome Powell coming up with increasingly dovish - not to mention - plans on how to attract Trump's attention and jump in the lead earlier this morning, former St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, who has emerged a long-shot contender for the next US central bank chief, called for a percentage point of interest-rate cuts this year, with scope to do more in 2026.

“Rates are a little bit high right now, and I think we can get down about 100 basis points going into 2026 — I think that’ll start with a rate reduction here at the September meeting, and probably be followed up later this year,” Bullard said on Fox Business Thursday.

Bullard, now dean of Purdue University’s business school, said he’d been in contact with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about his candidacy for Fed chair, and is aiming to set up an interview with him, “probably” after Labor Day — which falls on Sept. 1.

As for further rate cuts next year, Bullard said it will depend on how data come in. He also cited the need to protect the reserve status of the dollar.

Unfortunately for Bullard, he remains dead last in the Polymarket Powell-replacement sweepstakes, and he will have to either push for NIRP or, even better, Yield Curve Control if he hopes to have any real chance of getting Trump to notice him. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:47

US, EU Release Details Of Trade Deal

The US and European Union finally laid out the details of their recently announced trade deal which reduces tariffs on European automobiles while opening the door to new potential discounts for steel and aluminum.

The joint statement issued this morning represents an advancement of the preliminary deal announced a month ago, and includes specific benchmarks for the EU to secure its promised sectoral tariff discounts on cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, as well as new commitments for addressing the bloc’s digital services regulations.

Trump had repeatedly praised the sweeping US-EU trade framework, extolling it as “a big deal” in a Monday White House meeting with foreign leaders including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

The development underscores the nature of trade talks under Trump, with some initial, broad pronouncements of deals giving way to weeks or more of work to hammer out detailed agreements. Many of them are also tied to sweeping policy changes that could take time to materialize.

For example, Trump already imposed a flat 15% rate on most European goods, half the 30% he’d previously threatened. But the US promise to extend that lower levy to autos and auto parts now hinges on the EU formally introducing a legislative proposal to eliminate a host of its own tariffs on US industrial goods and provide “preferential market access” for some US seafood and agricultural products.

Below we summarize the highlights from the deal:

• US to levy 15% tariff on most EU imports, including autos, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips and lumber.
• US and EU to consider steps to ensure secure supply chains, including tariff rate-quota solutions.
• US and EU commit to address ‘unjustified digital trade barriers,’ with EU agreeing not to adopt network usage fees.
• US and EU to consider cooperation on ring-fencing domestic steel and aluminum markets from overcapacity.
• US and EU to negotiate rules of origin to ensure the trade agreement benefits predominantly both partners.
• EU companies to invest an additional USD 600bln across US strategic sectors through 2028.
• EU intends to procure USD 750bln in US LNG, oil and nuclear energy products, plus at least USD 40bln of US AI chips.
• From September 1, US to apply only MFN tariffs on EU aircraft and parts, generic pharmaceuticals, ingredients, chemical precursors and unavailable natural resources.
• US will lower tariffs on autos and auto parts when EU introduces legislation to enact tariff reductions.
• EU intends to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural goods.
• Senior US official expects tariff relief for EU automakers to come in 'hopefully weeks.*
• US and EU release joint statement locking in details of trade deal reached last month.

Tariffs: 

• 15% on most goods (vs 30% threatened)
• 15% on Autos (prev. 25%)
• 15% on Pharma + Chips
• US will retain a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminium
• Zero-for-zero tariffs have been agreed for some agricultural products, aircraft component parts, and certain chemical
• No final agreement has been reached yet on tariffs for spirits
• Aircraft exports are temporarily exempt from tariffs pending the outcome of a US investigation

EU Investments

• EU will invest USD 600bln in the US, including in military equipment
• EU will purchase USD 750bln worth of US energy, mainly LNG

As Bloomberg reports, the statement outlines choreographed action on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US codifying reduced auto tariffs once the EU “formally introduces the necessary legislative proposal to enact” its own promised tariff reductions. The discounted 15% tariffs on European auto imports, lower than a 27.5% Trump previously imposed on them, would be effective from the start of the same month that legislation is advanced. 

They could be in place within weeks, said a senior Trump administration official who briefed reporters on the initiative. The shift has been anxiously anticipated by some EU member states, particularly Germany, which exported $34.9 billion of new cars and auto parts to the US in 2024.

The legislative trigger is designed to help ensure the EU delivers on its promised tariff reductions — and ensure the 27-nation bloc has sufficient pressure to obtain the political mandate needed to make the changes, the administration official said. 

Meanwhile, the US is committing to apply lower most-favored-nation tariffs to a slew of other European products — including aircraft and aircraft parts, generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients and some natural resources such as cork. The US is also renewing its commitment to cap sectoral tariffs on European pharmaceutical products, semiconductors and lumber at 15%. 

It’s also opening the prospect for discounted rates on some steel, aluminum and derivative products under a quota system. That’s a shift from the White House’s stated plans in July, when the Trump administration insisted those metal tariffs would remain at 50%, helping to lower trade deficits with the EU and bring revenue to US coffers. 

On steel and aluminum, the EU and US now assert they “intend to consider the possibility to cooperate on ring-fencing their respective domestic markets from overcapacity, while ensuring secure supply chains between each other,” according to the joint statement. 

As discussed here before, the document raises major questions about how the EU might fulfill its promise to invest $600 billion in the US or purchase some $750 billion in US energy resources, including liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear power products. through 2028.

Private sector investments by European companies would be expected across strategic sectors in the US, including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, the senior administration official said. Meanwhile, the EU plans to substantially increase procurement of military and defense equipment from the US, according to the statement, and intends to buy at least $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips.

According to the joint statement, the EU intends to provide preferential market access for seafood and non-sensitive agricultural goods imported from the US, including tree nuts, certain dairy products, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, planting seeds, soybean oil, and pork and bison meat.

In recent weeks, deliberations over the EU’s digital services regulations and potential relief for some goods — including wine and spirits - were seen prolonging talks. The EU didn’t secure lower rates for alcohol in the joint statement.
But the US and EU are pledging to address some of what the statement calls “unjustified digital trade barriers,” with the bloc confirming that it will “not adopt or maintain network usage fees.” 

The EU has committed to work toward providing more “flexibilities” in its levy on carbon-intensive imports set to kick in next year, the statement said, and it will seek to ensure its corporate sustainability due diligence and reporting requirements don’t pose “undue restrictions on transatlantic trade.” 

Potential changes could include eased compliance requirements for small- and medium-sized businesses, according to the statement. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:30

Robbed, Punched, And Pistol-Whipped - A White House Reporter's Account Of Crime In DC

Authored by Iris Tao via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

The latest move by the White House to crack down on crime in Washington prompted me to reflect on a harrowing moment from my own life - the morning I was robbed at gunpoint just steps from my apartment.

White House reporter Iris Tao at the White House in Washington on March 26, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

It was 8:30 a.m. on a Saturday in January 2022. I had just left my building near The Wharf in Southwest D.C. when a man in a black ski mask appeared out of nowhere, pointed a gun at my face, and demanded my phone.

“Give me your phone,” he barked as he snatched it from my jacket pocket.

Then, with cold precision, he ordered me to hand over my wallet, laptop, and phone password.

Before fear even set in, instinct kicked in—not to protect my belongings, but to protect the sensitive information I carried. As a White House reporter for NTD Television, the sister outlet of The Epoch Times, I felt an overwhelming duty to safeguard my sources, colleagues, and loved ones.

“I can’t,” I said. “Don’t do this.”

He struck me across the face with the butt of his handgun.

My cheek went numb and flushed red.

“Help! Help!” I screamed as he ran off. A neighbor called the police. Later, an officer told me the assailant had fled into an apartment just a block away. They believed they knew who he was—but I never heard from them again.

I stayed surprisingly composed during the attack, but once I got back inside, the fear set in. He could have shot me. I could have died—just as my career was beginning. My parents and now-husband were hundreds of miles away.

I grew up in New York City and considered myself street-smart. Crime statistics had always been just numbers. I walked the streets of Queens and Manhattan alone, day or night. That Saturday morning shattered that confidence.

It’s been more than two years. Since then, I’ve never walked the streets of D.C. alone at night. I Uber home every day—even though my office is within walking distance. I’m on high alert after dark, whether I’m working or just meeting friends. Fear lives around every corner.

I didn’t tell my grandparents what happened until a year later—I was afraid it would devastate them and convince them I should leave D.C. entirely. Truthfully, I still love this city. But the scar of that morning lingers.

So when friends ask, “Is D.C. safe?” I don’t just share the stats. I share what happened to me.

Officially, the Metropolitan Police Department says violent crime is down 35 percent from its 2023 peak, and city leaders say we’re near a 30-year low. But lived experience tells a different story.

Last year alone, D.C. reported 29,348 crimes, including:

• 3,469 violent offenses
• 1,026 assaults with a dangerous weapon
• 2,113 robberies

That’s thousands of families like mine, who have endured the trauma and aftermath of violence.

Some experts say not all crimes are even reported. Others point to claims that police leadership under-reported data to make the numbers look better. One thing, however, is hard to manipulate: the homicide rate.

In 2024, D.C.’s homicide rate was 27.3 per 100,000 residents—the fourth-highest in the country, and more than double the rate from just a decade ago.

So far in 2025, there have been more than 100 homicides.

Among the victims:

• Three-year-old Honesty Cheadle, shot while sitting in a car with her family after Fourth of July fireworks.
• 21-year-old Capitol Hill intern Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, killed while walking through Northwest D.C. one evening.
• And just hours after President Trump declared a public safety emergency on August 12, a 33-year-old man was shot and killed in Logan Circle—less than a mile from the White House.

These are not just numbers. Each one is a person. A life cut short. A family changed forever.

As national debate swirls around crime in the capital and whether National Guard troops should patrol its streets, I hope we remember the human cost behind every statistic.

I’m expecting my first child at the end of this year. And we’ve decided we won’t stay in D.C.—not until both the numbers and the stories prove the city has truly changed.

As a new mom, I want my son to grow up in a place where he can walk freely, play safely, and live without fear. I think most parents want the same.

And I hope—someday—we can live that vision here in our nation’s capital: a clean, beautiful, and truly shining city on a hill once again.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:15

Initial Claims Unexpectedly Jump As Continuing Claims Surge To Four-Year Highs On Deep Tri-State Misery

One week after initial claims printed at the same level (224k) where they were at in Nov 2021 (with non-seasonally adjusted claims hovering near record lows), moments ago the BLS reported that claims jumped in the last week, rising by 11k to 235K, the highest since June 20. Curiously the jump in seasonally adjusted claims took place even as unadjusted claims dipped to 2025 lows.

A breakdown of initial claims by state does not show any dramatic outliers: Kentucky saw the biggest increase in initial claims, up almost 2K, while claims in California dropped by 1,948.

Meanwhile, the relentless rise in continuing jobless claims continues, and in the latest week rose to 1.972 million, up from 1942 million, and above the 1.960 million expected; it was also the highest print since the covid crash.

The silver lining (if that's what one would call it) is the continuing jobless claims across the Deep TriState keep rising...

Must may be gone, but DOGE is still taking deep state coup-plotter scalps. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 08:51