Schiff On Metals & Miners: Dollar Bubble Burst Will Humble The Economy

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter recently joined Metals and Miners host Gary Gohm to discuss a range of economic topics, from consumer debt to the fragility of the U.S. dollar and the shifting global reserve landscape. He explains how reckless borrowing—by both consumers and governments—ties into the bigger story of unsustainable dollar dominance and its consequences for economic security, inflation, and the gold market. 

Peter opens with a candid take on the psychology of U.S. consumers facing mounting financial strain. He notes that for many deeply in debt, there’s little incentive to curb borrowing when bankruptcy feels inevitable:

And I think that the people who are trying to borrow more money out of desperation, they probably don’t even care that they can’t pay the money back. 

They just want to borrow more. And in fact, once you’ve already borrowed more than you can possibly repay, and you know it’s just a matter of time before you file for bankruptcy, you may as well go out with a real bang. I mean, so you might as well just take out as much additional credit.

So the consumer has no qualms about refinancing a house that is going to go into foreclosure anyway, or maxing out a credit card that he has no intention of paying, or signing up for buy now, pay later, when in his mind it’s ‘buy now, pay never.’

Steering the conversation to the foundation of this unchecked borrowing, Peter highlights the even larger bubble inflating quietly in the background: the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. He argues that it’s this inflation that fuels trade imbalances and the erosion of American manufacturing—not foreign “cheating” or tariffs as some officials claim:

Well, first of all, the biggest bubble of them all is the one in the US dollar and in US treasuries. 

And that’s what’s been enabling these massive trade deficits that Secretary Bessent said are responsible for hollowing out our industrial base, decimating our supply chains, sacrificing our economic security. 

All that stuff is true as to what’s happened, but he’s got the cause wrong. He’s blaming all these problems on foreigners cheating through tariffs and non-tariff barriers. But that’s got nothing to do with it.

Peter then zeroes in on a risk most policymakers won’t acknowledge: the vulnerability of American banks if confronted with a stagflation scenario. He explains that stress tests run by the Federal Reserve ignore the one scenario that could truly expose the banking system’s weaknesses:

Well, it’s extremely exposed. And in fact, you know, stagflation, a combination of a weak economy and rising interest rates, is the one scenario that the Fed never stress tested any of the banks for. 

The Federal Reserve, in its most worst case adverse scenario, where there is a massive recession with high unemployment, they assume that interest rates go back down to zero, and that treasury bonds yields collapse. 

They did not run a stress test where you have a recession with high unemployment, but inflation and interest rates go up, not down. … They’d all fail under a really adverse scenario.

Shifting the focus to where big players are moving their assets, Peter notes that central banks are already well into the process of selling dollars and U.S. government debt in favor of gold. He argues that this transition is still in its early stages, with gold’s price set to climb much higher as a result:

We’re just headed higher to 4,000 and beyond. But gold is what central banks are buying as they are selling dollars. 

They are moving reserves from dollars to gold, which means they’re not buying treasuries either or mortgage backed securities. 

And we’re still early in that process. It’s been going on for a couple of years, but it’s still got a long way to go.

Peter ties his argument together by recalling how the U.S. has used the dollar’s global reserve currency status as a crutch to maintain lifestyles that outstrip domestic production and savings. As the world moves away from the dollar, he warns, Americans will be forced to return to more sustainable habits—producing and saving rather than consuming and borrowing:

The changes that I am referring to have to do with the fact that we’ve been able to get a free ride on the global gravy train. 

We’ve been able to exploit the reserve status of the US dollar to live beyond our means. We’re able to consume as a nation more than we collectively produce, and we’re able to borrow a lot more than we collectively save. 

And so our standard of living, right, our ability to buy stuff, has been enhanced by taking advantage of the dollar’s role. Without the dollar as a reserve currency, we’d have to produce more, which means we’d have to save more.

For more of Peter’s insight, check out his other recent interview on the Mining Network!

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/18/2025 - 10:30

Hamas Planned Oct. 7 To Prevent Israel-Saudi Normalization, Documents Confirm

Newly uncovered internal Hamas documents confirm a longtime theory explaining the motives behind the Oct.7, 2023 terror attack which kicked off the bloody and grinding Gaza war, which still shows no signs of abating and has resulted in unprecedented death and destruction in the Gaza Strip.

The documents, published by The Wall Street Journal, demonstrate that Hamas leaders had a specific aim of preventing a potential peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia based on the US-backed Abraham Accords. This was speculated about soon after the horrific attacks that also kicked off the hostage crisis.

Yahya Sinwar signaling 'victory' at a 2021 rally, via Shutterstock.

This is according to minutes from a high-level meeting which cite now slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and which were reportedly discovered by Israeli forces in Gaza tunnels. Sinwar was quoted in the internal papers, which are dated Oct. 2, 2023 - as saying, "There is no doubt that the Saudi-Zionist normalization agreement is progressing significantly."

He expressed alarm that a deal would "open the door for the majority of Arab and Islamic countries to follow the same path." 

Indeed the Palestinians have long feared that broad acceptance of the Abraham Accords in the region would leave the cause of a statehood permanently forgotten and sidelined. It would allow for Israeli expansion with impunity, and with no powerful Arab block to resist or raise a voice. It would also likely dry up any funding or weapons support for armed groups like Hamas or Islamic Jihad.

The Wall Street Journal presents the following, quoting notes from the meeting further:

For Sinwar and Hamas, who have called for total destruction of Israel and the creation of a Palestinian state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, this was unacceptable. Sinwar said it was time to unleash an attack that had been in the planning stages for two years.

The goal, he said, is "to bring about a major move or a strategic shift in the paths and balances of the region with regard to the Palestinian cause." He expected to get help from the other Iranian-backed forces of the so-called axis of resistance to Israel.

He called for an "extraordinary act" in order to halt the move toward Israeli-Saudi normalization.

WSJ: "The Israeli military says it found minutes from an Oct. 2, 2023 meeting of Hamas leadership where Yahya Sinwar said an 'extraordinary act' was needed to confront Israeli-Saudi normalization."

Hamas has not commented on the documents' authenticity, but again, their contents appear fully consistent with concerns voiced by some Palestinian officials long prior to Oct. 7 - that the Palestinian cause would suffocate and die if the Arab Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, achieve full diplomatic normalization with Israel.

One year ago, at the tail-end of the Biden administration, the US was still trying to entice the Saudis to sign a deal - even offering help with developing a civilian nuclear program and fewer restrictions on arms purchases in exchange for normalizing ties with Israel.

The US position has long been that a Palestinian state must be born out direct negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, and not accomplished superficially within an external forum like the UN. But powerful Arab states like Saudi Arabia would theoretically apply immense pressure on the Palestinian side.

Israel for its part has clearly rejected that it will allow for a Palestinian state so long as Hamas still exists, and PM Netanyahu has even linked the more secular-leaning Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to 'terrorism'. He has also rejected a prior US call to allow the PA to take over and administer the Gaza Strip. The reality is that the current Gaza war makes the prospect of achieving a Palestinian state more distant than ever.

Israeli military in Hamas tunnels and commander bunkers under Gaza, via IDF.

And the prospect of Palestinian statehood resulting from some kind of Israel-Saudi normalization agreement based on Trump's Abraham Accords (conceived during his first administration) - which US media reports previously hailed as 'deal of the century' - also clearly seems a pipe dream at this point.

In this regard at least, Sinyar's 'extraordinary act' served its purpose, but the bloody aftermath is thousands of Israelis killed, many tens of thousands of Palestinians dead and wounded, and a region on fire.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/18/2025 - 09:55

From Debanking To Banking Arms-Race - The Rise Of Stablecoins

Authored by Megan Knab via CoinTelegraph.com,

There are few historical examples of such a massive about-face for an industry, from banks debanking crypto businesses to now embracing stablecoins. If you talk to most crypto startup founders or companies with crypto on the balance sheet, they will all have war stories about finding, applying for and maintaining bank accounts. 

Over the past three years, over half of debanking complaints have been lodged against four American banks — Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citibank. Now, as the policies that discriminated against the crypto industry, like “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” and the recision of controversial accounting rule SAB 121, have been repealed, a new openness to blockchain technology from the finance sector is possible. 

It is imperative that the banking industry stop shunning crypto and start — at least understanding it — to stay competitive. How stablecoins are deployed will separate the banking winners and losers. 

From debanking to stablecoins 

Of course, stablecoins are not a new concept. For years, large institutions like JPMorgan and Santander have experimented with stablecoins and blockchains. Those experiments were around small functions like internal treasury reconciliation and interbank settlement. Much of this was also on private blockchains created by those banks. Implementing digital dollars on private chains, however, misses out on the core innovation of stablecoins.

While the use case of stablecoins for international remittances is clear, we are just scratching the surface of the power of stablecoins on public networks. For example, stablecoins eradicate unauthorized payment disputes and enable far faster pay cycles. 

Payroll payments are also complex. Payday is a web of thousands of automated clearing houses, wires, comma-separated values and PDFs. The programmability of stablecoins enables companies to create efficiency among all these data structures, processing times, reconciliations and paycheck reporting. 

Many smaller banks are just now waking up to the opportunity to incorporate permissionless, public network stablecoins into their workflows. Similar to how many businesses started to investigate how AI might change their businesses with the 2022 release of ChatGPT, so too are banks needing to look at how stablecoins will upend money movement.

 Recently, Custodia Bank issued its own stablecoin, Avit, on Ethereum. Custodia’s users can access quick, cheap banking services that are hard to beat. This is an excellent example of implementation for other financial institutions to follow.

Stablecoin adoption is increasing as the tech keeps improving

Active stablecoin wallets increased from 19.6 million in February 2024 to over 30 million in February 2025, according to Artemis and Dune. US President Donald Trump hopes to have stablecoin legislation on his desk by August 2025. Wyoming already did so in late March 2025.

Stablecoin infrastructure has improved significantly, and there is increased confidence in the security of stablecoins. 91% of the supply of stablecoins is fiat-backed, and only 8.5% are backed by collateralized crypto assets. Riskier algorithmic stablecoins have gone out of vogue.

Incremental changes also make it easier for non-crypto businesses to use stablecoins. There are now simple solutions for many of the original UX problems with stablecoins.

Additionally, more assets are moving onchain. Using stablecoins on public networks like Ethereum, payment companies will be better prepared to serve the future financial system. It’s not just stablecoins that are updating the financial system, either. Earlier this year, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said on Squawk Box he wants the SEC to “rapidly approve the tokenization of bonds and stocks.”

For banks looking for a competitive advantage in a world of powerful fintechs, shifting interest rates and lower consumer savings, using the power of stablecoins to improve their products and their internal operations might be the most powerful decision they make. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/18/2025 - 09:20

EU Establishment Fumes As "Far Right" Romanian Candidate Closes In On Presidential Win

When EU backed officials in Romania fabricated the accusation that right leaning presidential candidate Calin Georgescu was only popular because of a Russian disinformation operation on social media, the most common assumption was that this was purely a political stunt to draw voters away from his campaign.  Instead, the establishment surprised many around the world with Georgescu's arrest and eventual disqualification from the race. 

To this day there is still no concrete evidence that Russia had any hand in the candidate's campaign or made any measurable effort to sway the election in his favor.

At bottom, Georgescu was the clear favorite to win exactly because he was a populist, nationalist and wanted to keep Romania out of the Ukraine conflict. This is what the Romanian people want.  However, the qualities that endeared him to the public were also the qualities that made him a target for removal.  The strategy has only resulted in even greater defiance by the voters and given a clear boost to George Simion, the conservative alternative. 

Georgescu has thrown his support behind Simion, a self proclaimed fan of MAGA and a staunch opponent of Romanian involvement in Ukraine.  Simion recently crushed the existing government coalition in the do-over elections, causing Romania's Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to resign.  The final election, slated for this Sunday, will finally end the chaos of the uncertain election process.

As critics of the action to stifle the populist movement point out, the government only seems to have made voters more galvanized against the status quo.  It's clear that the progressive multiculturalist seat of power in Europe is fading, and they are willing to use any authoritarian means necessary to "save democracy".  

The problem is that the more the European Union squeezes their fist around member nations, the more countries end up slipping through their fingers.  Simion's odds of winning the election are high.  High enough, in fact, that the progressive media has unleashed a rancid flood of swampy propaganda attacking the candidate in preparation of his likely victory. 

Within the past two days we have seen some incredibly biased and manipulative headlines.  

The Guardian says:  ‘Between a mathematician and a Trump-loving hooligan’: Romania’s stark presidential choice

From the Washington Post:  A Russian-stoked protest movement lifts a MAGA-like populist in Romania

From Politico:  Romania’s Simion wants a broad coalition. Good luck with that.

From The New York Times (in reference to Simion's possible win):  Romania Is About to Experience Disaster

From Foreign Policy:  Romania’s Far Right Is More Extreme Than You Think

This is not journalism, this is agit-prop for the globalist oligarchy.  CNN only referred to Simion as "A MAGA Courting Populist", which is generally true, but in their tiny leftist minds this accusation alone is a kind irredeemable condemnation. 

The reaction from the corporate media in the west reveals how valuable Romania is for the future plans of NATO and the EU.  Sitting directly on Ukraine's southwest border with access to the Black Sea, Romania would be a key strategic position in a future war with Russia should Europe be insane enough to pursue a conflict.  There is also the matter of the European population becoming increasingly disenchanted with the progressive elites in power.  Their open border policies and carbon controls have nearly destroyed most of the union and left it in third world shambles.

A win for populists in Romania could herald even greater wins by other nationalist parties across the continent in the next few years.        

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/18/2025 - 08:45

The Latest Hungarian-Ukrainian Tensions Are Troubling

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban revealed after a meeting with the Defense Council that Ukraine is meddling in the ongoing Hungarian referendum over whether to support Ukraine’s EU membership plans. 

He also accused the opposition of unprecedentedly colluding with them. 

This coincided with Hungary reportedly downing a Ukrainian drone, which followed tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions after Ukraine accused Hungary of spying on it and Hungary accused Ukraine of pushing hostile propaganda.

The larger context concerns Hungary’s principled refusal to send arms to Ukraine or allow its territory to be used by others to that end due to its pro-peace policy. As can be evinced above, it’s also against Ukraine joining the EU, the reason being that Ukraine discriminates against the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia/Transcarpathia. Even though Orban has repeatedly explained how the aforesaid policies align with Hungarian national interests, Zelensky and many in the West accuse him of being Putin’s puppet.

This was the tacit pretext upon which Ukraine let a gas deal with Russia lapse at the start of the year to the detriment of downstream customers like Hungary and Slovakia, the second of which began following in Budapest’s geopolitical footsteps after Prime Minister Roberto Fico’s return to power in late 2023. Ukraine’s move was therefore clearly meant to punish them for their pro-peace policies, which Ukraine believes undermine European unity towards the conflict and could one day obstruct EU financial aid.

The latest tensions are more troubling than any of the aforesaid since they concern security issues. Mutual mistrust was boiling for a while as detailed above but it’s now taking on a new dimension. Given their deteriorating ties since 2022, it was to be expected that they’d spy on each other, but few could have expected Ukraine’s innuendo that Hungary might be preparing an invasion and Hungary’s innuendo that Ukraine might try to orchestrate a Color Revolution. These claims deserve to be scrutinized.

Ukraine’s build upon smears that Hungary is a Russian proxy and might therefore be ordered to open a “second front” sometime in the future on the pretext of protecting its co-ethnics. While they’re indeed being discriminated against, the costs of a Hungarian military intervention in their support far outweigh the benefits. Hungary would ostracize itself from the West, open itself up to crippling sanctions and possibly even allied attack, and have to incorporate or forcibly expel Zakarpattia’s Ukrainian population.

Hungary’s claims are more believable since Ukraine already behaves as a Western proxy. Former Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov boasted in January 2023 that “We’re carrying out NATO’s mission today, without shedding their blood.” The Wall Street Journal then reported in March 2024 that Ukraine was fighting Russia in Sudan, while last summer, a GUR official claimed credit for a deadly Tuareg attack on Wagner in Mali. It thus wouldn’t be surprising if Ukraine is helping the West undermine Russian-friendly Orban.

With this insight in mind, Ukraine is much more of a credible threat to Hungary than the inverse.

In fact, Ukraine might exploit the latest tensions as the pretext for ramping up pressure on Hungary, which could in turn prompt more European countries to do the same. 

Any legal action against the Hungarian opposition for their collusion with the Ukrainian special services might also lead to serious EU sanctions. Hungary must therefore brace itself for major meddling ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/18/2025 - 07:00

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• This New Investing Idea Isn’t Right for Your Retirement Plan: Why don’t ‘alternative assets’ like private credit belong in your 401(k)? Let us count the ways. (WSJ)

• Can Bill Ackman create a ‘modern-day’ Berkshire Hathaway? Hard-charging hedge fund boss faces steep hurdles in bid to emulate Warren Buffett. (Financial Times)

• Rugpull: Crypto Is Still for Criming: Crypto has been used to scam naïve Trump loyalists. An investigative report by the Washington Post found that while a handful of large investors made a lot of money from the coin $Trump, tens of thousands of small investors, lured in by the Trump name, bought the coin near its peak and have seen most of their money vanish. (Paul Krugman)

• Meta Battles an ‘Epidemic of Scams’ as Criminals Flood Instagram and Facebook: Fake puppies and phony offers of mouthwatering bargains are often seeded by overseas crime networks; employees say company is reluctant to impede its advertising juggernaut. (WSJ date says 2025, but this ain’t much different than 2015). (Wall Street Journal)

• The Mess at Airports Is Part of a Larger Pattern: What’s behind the Newark-airport fiasco. (The Atlantic) see also Newark Flight Chaos Shows the Crisis Rocking Air Traffic Control Jobs: The path to alleviating a shortage of air traffic controllers runs through a training academy in Oklahoma City. (Bloomberg) see also Newark’s Air Traffic Control Staffing Crisis Is Dire. It’s Also Not Unique. Ninety-nine percent of the air traffic control facilities in the United States are operating below recommended staffing levels, a New York Times analysis has found. (New York Times) see also This Air-Traffic Controller Just Averted a Midair Collision. Now He’s Speaking Out. Jonathan Stewart says controllers didn’t walk off the job after recent FAA equipment outages; ‘I don’t want to be responsible for killing 400 people’. (Wall Street Journal)

• UnitedHealth’s Collapse Has Nothing to Do With Luigi Mangione: The company’s stock tells a darker story about how American health care really works. (Slate)

• Keep calm (but delete your nudes): the new rules for travelling to and from MAGA America: Many people have decided a trip to the US isn’t worth the risk after recent border detentions. But if you are going, what do you need to know? Immigration lawyers explain it all (WTF?!?). (The Guardian)

• Trump’s Real Secretary of State: How the president’s friend and golfing partner Steve Witkoff got one of the hardest jobs on the planet. (The Atlantic) see also Trump radically remade the US food system in just 100 days: The people who grow and sell America’s food no longer trust the USDA. We made a timeline to show you what happened. (Grist)

• The ‘R-word,’ embraced by Joe Rogan and Elon Musk, inches back into the mainstream: Many still consider the word a disability slur, and while its use has percolated in the comedy world for years, only recently has it — and discussion of its return — become more common. (NBC News)

• Creepy: Why is Maga-land so obsessed with Kai Trump turning 18? Do you really need to ask? The birthday of Donald Trump’s granddaughter has been forced upon my consciousness because an awful lot of people are being weird about it. (The Guardian)

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business with John Montgomery, founder and CEO of Bridgeway Capital.  The firm, which was founded in 1993, manages ~$5B in assets; they have become known for donating 50% of their annual company profits to non-profit organizations.

Half of American Households Hold 97.5% of the National Wealth

Source: Bloomberg

 

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~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Is Christian Nationalism The Solution To The Frailty Of Liberalism?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

Conservative movements are often depicted as unyielding and uncompromising; dangerously incapable of adaptation when new ideas come to light. This image of the political right is rooted in a number of misconceptions. In reality, modern conservatives are often far too compromising – Far too willing to go along to get along. None of us wants to be seen as a dictator.

Perhaps the most important and defining characteristic of conservatives (at least in the US) is a regard for freedom, but ONLY freedom that is tempered by responsibility. When leftists (or libertarians) scrutinize the conservative ideal they usually reach back around 50 years to the days of evangelical censorship – The attempts to shut down the porn industry, temper the gay agenda in media, warn about satanic references in movies and violence in video games.

This was the era of the Christian “busybody” and a lot of people made fun of them for it. To be clear, they were wrong in some instances, but as our current predicament in the west proves, they were right about many things, too.

The supposed balance to the evangelicals was Liberalism. Most liberals today are certainly not the staunchly individualist and freedom minded people they once were. In fact, the majority of them joined woke activists without question or kept their mouths shut while the far-left pulled a speed run into Orwell’s 1984.

Perhaps in a desperate attempt to save their ideology from losing all relevancy, some liberals slipped over to the center and criticized the woke mob. Most of them didn’t have the balls to jump into the culture war until a few years ago. Those of us in the conservative sphere had already been exposing the existential dangers of post-modernism, futurism and luciferianism for decades.

Centrist liberals say they want to temper the political left’s addiction to Marxism and Communism. As recent events have proven, they are simply not up to the task of controlling their political cousins. The woke movement spread like a cancer throughout the entire liberal body and they bowed in fealty. The only thing that stopped the rot was the right wing finally taking a stand and going on the offensive.

With conservative principles currently gaining momentum there is a chance that America could actually turn back the clock on mores and social cohesion to a time when traditional values were held in much higher regard. This can only be a good thing in my opinion, but it requires a reconsideration of our concept of personal liberty. Maybe some behavior needs to be reined in? Maybe total unchecked chaos and limitless individualism is a bad thing?

Liberals warn that conservatives are gaining too much power after the success of MAGA in last year’s elections and therefore we must be kept in check. Their argument? The woke left is beaten, but now the world must put a leash on the “woke right”.

The “woke right” label in itself is a rather remedial and silly attempt to divert popular discussion away from traditional values (a development that hasn’t taken place in the US in a long time). Morals, nobility and responsibility might become “cool” again, and liberals simply can’t have that.

They argue that their way (a continued idealization of individualism without taking inherent narcissism, psychopathy and the mentality of mobs into account) is the best way. However, we have seen where liberalism without boundaries ends. The cult of chaos (wokeness) is simply a natural extension of the liberal ideal. They demand an end to ALL restrictions, even the restrictions of objective truth.

They want total open multicultural expansion, unfettered freedom to interpret biology and morality according to subjective preference, unchecked sexual deviancy, no consequences whatsoever for their actions. Liberals are not as far from this end of the spectrum as they pretend. They don’t like cultural structures and rules either. They don’t like collective limitations (unless they control those limitations). They don’t even believe in evil; they only believe in circumstances.

Conservatives now stand atop the fray of the culture war and many of us are suggesting that, in order to prevent the nightmare of wokeness (or something even worse) from ever happening again, we might need to instill some enduring rules of social conduct. The liberals in turn are freaking out. They especially seem to despise Christian Nationalists who want to bring America back to an era of carefully defined moral order.

A decade ago I might have agreed with this concern, at least in part. I’m not fond of the idea of a theocracy in which the church rules the state. I also agree that most people have a conscience outside of biblical teaching (If we didn’t then humanity would have gone extinct long ago).

That said, Christian Nationalism does not require theocracy, and if you do have a conscience then you should already be in agreement with most Christian fundamentals anyway. Living in a society where Christianity is more widely embraced wouldn’t make any difference for you. It would only be incompatible if a person harbors post-modern delusions that view Christianity as the enemy. If that’s the case, you shouldn’t be living in America anyway. All you have to do is go elsewhere.

I think liberals need to acknowledge that they are a product of a very narrow moment in time and that time is fading. For most of American history Christianity was the preeminent cultural compass. The US was always Christian and nearly all of our leaders were Christian. America has in fact always been a Christian nation and Christian Nationalism was the norm. Christians are still the majority today (62%) despite the endless negative campaign to shut them down.

As recently as the 1990s, over 90% of all Americans identified as Christian. Things have only changed in the past 30 years, and they have done so dramatically to the negative.

In light of the unfettered horrors of wokism I’m increasingly convinced that Christian doctrine is a necessary firewall designed to filter out otherwise malicious ideological malware. If the progressives (and their liberal counterparts) are not kept in check by someone, then the woke march could repeat by the next generation.

So, what is to be done?

The underlying debate is this – Should one group define western culture above all others and defend it against existential threats. Are Christian Nationalists that group? I would say yes to both questions, because of America’s spiritual history and the fact that there’s no other viable alternative. Do we continue to allow liberals to anoint themselves the arbiters of American culture? Or, do we try something different?

Is this hard-right position also “woke right”? The term “woke right” is often linked back to Kevin DeYoung’s 2022 review of Stephen Wolfe’s book The Case for Christian Nationalism. In his article entitled “The Rise of Right-Wing Wokeism” he argues that:

“Besides trafficking in sweeping and unsubstantiated claims about the totalizing control of the Globalist American Empire and the gynocracy, Wolfe’s apocalyptic vision—for all of its vitriol toward the secular elites—borrows liberally from the playbook of the left.

He not only redefines the nature of oppression as psychological oppression (making it easier to justify extreme measures and harder to argue things aren’t as bad as they seem), he also rallies the troops (figuratively, but perhaps also literally?) by reminding them they’re victims. “The world is out to get you, and people out there hate you” is not a message that will ultimately help white men or any other group that considers themselves oppressed…”

“…If critical race theory teaches that America has failed, that the existing order is irredeemable, that Western liberalism was a mistake from the beginning, that the current system is rigged against our tribe, and that we ought to make ethnic consciousness more important—it seems to me that Wolfe’s project is the right-wing version of these same impulses.”

While DeYoung’s analysis seems to be coming from a sincere place and he does defend Christian culture as an important part of American life, his analysis requires a certain level of ignorance to stay afloat. Liberals and left leaning Christians refuse to consider one important factor:

Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you.

The entire premise behind the notion of the “woke right” requires that none of the threats above prove to be real. That there is no globalist conspiracy to destroy the west and Christianity. That the subversion of conservative principles is imagined. That there is no white replacement in the US and Europe. That conservatives are not being oppressed and that tribal organization against our attackers is unwarranted or impractical.

DeYoung (and most liberals) prefer passive Christianity. If Christians had thought like DeYoung in the Middle Ages, the entire west would have been wiped off the face of the Earth by Muslim invaders centuries ago. Instead, they took direct action to save themselves. The issue is not even particularly nationalist in origin, it’s only that nations are the easiest barrier to rally and defend. At bottom, Christians must at times act to prevent their own erasure.

Wokeness is largely about false witness – Leftists claim they are being oppressed when they are provably not. The political right cannot be woke because the western world and Christianity are indeed under constant attack. This is not debatable.

In Europe today, the war on Christians and conservatives (or populists) is evident and it is undeniably systemic. Europeans have been under siege by engineered mass immigration from the third-world. Most of the migrants come from places (Islamic) that despise Christianity and view personal liberty as an aberration or heresy. The governments of France, Germany, England and Romania are actively imprisoning right leaning political opponents and silencing them online, all in the name of liberal democracy.

In the US, woke zealots and the global elites have used everything from mass censorship to medical tyranny to mob violence to shut down and terrorize the political right. The Biden Administration made multiple public proclamations declaring conservatives a domestic threat to democracy. We were accused of being insurrectionists. We were painted as terrorists, and all we did was ask questions and demand truthful answers. This isn’t an exaggerated tale of victimhood conjured up for sympathy, it’s just the facts.

The debate over Christians and conservatives taking direct action instead of waiting around for the next crisis reminds me of a fascinating film directed by Bill Paxton called ‘Frailty’. If you haven’t seen it then I recommend doing so before I spoil it for you here.

In the movie, Bill Paxton plays a father with two sons living a relatively normal life as a devout man with a good heart. One day, he approaches his sons with a terrifying tale: He was visited by an angel from heaven that told him he has been chosen for a mission to destroy evil. The evil, he says, is enacted by demons that take the form of human beings. He claims that God has demanded that he and his sons remove these demons before they do anymore harm.

The youngest son believes his father without question and in full faith. The older son does not and asserts that the man might be going dangerously insane.

What follows is an escalating conflict between father and son as Bill Paxton begins to kill the people he believes are demonic. When he touches them, he says he can see the crimes they’ve committed. The older son refuses to participate in the murders and tries to sabotage Paxton’s efforts. Finally, Paxton accuses his oldest of being a demon as well. The boy eventually kills his father in order to stop the murders.

Plot Twist: Bill Paxton really did receive a vision from God. He really was killing demons, and his eldest son was also a demon the whole time.

Liberals who perpetuate the woke right narrative remind me of the oldest son in Frailty.

They play at being even handed, fighting to keep the scales of power from tipping in either direction. In truth, they are blinded by their own self righteousness and their belief that there is no such thing as evil. The rest of us see it, but if we try to do something about it these same people obstruct and sabotage and accuse us of “becoming monsters to defeat the monsters”. They allow the sparks of woke chaos to survive.

Should western civilization be allowed to discriminate? Should we be able to refuse to associate? Should we have the right to be tribal (like everyone else) and deny entry to malicious cultures and ideologies? Is our heritage valid and enduring? Is Christian Nationalism the solution to the woke luciferian agenda? It seems to me that the elites want conservatism dead so badly that it must be a threat to them.

We ARE fighting demons, and a culture without a spiritual consensus is a dying culture. Christian Nationalism was the natural default of American society for centuries. Many people who are not Christians are still perfectly capable of living and thriving within such a society as long as they don’t try to tear it down. The Overton Window has merely been rigged so far to the left that any return to the old standard sounds like madness; it is in fact the most sane thing we could possibly do to save our country.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 23:20

Desperate San Francisco Pins Business Hopes On Nintendo Flagship Store

Essentially all of America's major cities on the west coast are experiencing a period of steep economic decline.  The reason for the financial squeeze and the exodus of major business chains is obvious - Democrat run cities enforce progressive criminal policies and progressive tax policies.  The two elements combined make it nearly impossible for most companies to function and turn a profit.  Even worse, businesses are finding it difficult to ensure their employees stay safe.

The theft issue is astronomical, even after the California State Government (and city governments) reversed a law which made prosecution of anyone stealing under $950 in goods almost impossible.  Criminal residents took full advantage of the lack of enforcement and gutted numerous retail outlets, forcing them to lock up their stock behind plastic and chains.  The elimination of the law might lesson the incentive to steal, but too many criminals know they are still unlikely to be caught or have their cases pursued by the city. 

Denny's, Walgreens, Michael Kors and others have shuttered San Francisco locations. So far in 2025, the San Francisco Police Department has recorded more than 8,100 crime reports, including 530 robberies and over 4,600 instances of larceny theft.

In San Francisco's once bustling Union Square shopping district, some of the largest retailers are running for the hills.  Nordstrom, Bloomingdale's, Macy's, Saks Fifth Avenue, Uniqlo, Adidas, American Eagle, J. Crew, Madewell, Aldo, L'Occitane, as well as Psycho Bunny, Sunglass Hut, and Razer have all closed stores in the area or are in the process of leaving. 

However, the city is placing hope in the arrival of a brand new Nintendo flagship store in Union Square, which they think will help rejuvenate shopping activity.  The store is one of only two in existence outside of Japan.

It probably doesn't need to be spelled out, but the desperation and delusion are palpable here.  The store is a unique item to the US, but not enough to draw in a shopping revival in the already hollow Union Square.  San Francisco's reputation as a tourist destination is undeniably sullied.  A single successful store is also not going to drive other businesses to take a chance in a market they already escaped. 

Why Nintendo would choose to establish a flagship operation in the area is a mystery, but the city government has recently created a "Downtown Revitalization Program" (including something called the "San Francisco New Deal") which offers a number of financial incentives, grants, low interest loans and rewards for "beautification". Nintendo may have gathered enough taxpayer cash already to pay for their first year of operations. 

In other words, no company is going to put down roots in San Francisco unless the local government pays them to do so.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 21:35

Syrian President Skips Arab League Summit In Baghdad After Outcry Over ISIS Background

Via Middle East Eye

A summit of the Arab League began in Baghdad on Saturday, with Syria's president absent following Iraqi outcry. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas was the first Arab leader to arrive in Baghdad on Friday, followed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Saturday.

However, a diplomatic source told AFP that most Gulf leaders would not be attending. Other figures present in Baghdad on Saturday include United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein (right) walks with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (left) upon his arrival in Baghdad for the 34th Arab League summit on 17 May 2025

The summit is expected to discuss the numerous crises afflicting the region, including Israel's ongoing attack on the Gaza Strip.

US President Donald Trump, who has been touring the Gulf states, sparked outrage in the Arab world earlier this year when he declared his country would take control of Gaza and turn it into the "Riviera of the Middle East".

In response, Arab leaders announced the development of a post-war plan at the previous summit in Cairo in March to rebuild the territory.

The Iraqi government has said this month's summit would endorse the plan, which calls for a $53bn fund to finance Gaza's reconstruction over five years. Under the proposal, the territory would be administered during a transitional period by a committee of Palestinian technocrats, before the PA regains control.

"We are not just rebuilding Iraq, we are also reshaping the Middle East through a balanced foreign policy, wise leadership, development initiatives, and strategic partnerships," Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani wrote in an opinion piece earlier this month.

Syrian al-Qaeda founder

Iraq is still trying to stabilize after years of violence sparked off by the US-led invasion in 2003 that overthrew long-time ruler Saddam Hussein.

Controversy had swirled around an invitation extended by Sudani to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who came to power after overthrowing Bashar al-Assad in December. Numerous Iraqi politicians had called for him to be blocked from attending over his past membership in al-Qaeda in Iraq, a group responsible for the deaths of thousands of Iraqis during the 2000s through often indiscriminate and sectarian attacks.

On Saturday, it was reported that Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, who was also a member of Syria's al-Qaeda wing alongside Sharaa, would be attending the summit rather than the president.

Iraqi media reported last month that at least 50 MPs from Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataeb Hezbollah - two Iran-backed armed political factions that provided military support to Assad against Sharaa and other Syrian opposition groups - had filed criminal complaints in Iraqi courts against the Syrian president.

The Islamic Dawa Party, which held the prime ministership during the bulk of the al-Qaeda insurgency, also warned against inviting Sharaa to Iraq. Though they did not mention the prime minister by name, they said that anyone invited to the Arab League conference should have a "spotless" legal record, both at home and abroad.

However, Sudani - like several other Arab leaders - has been keen to normalize ties with Syria following 13 years of civil [proxy war for regime change] war that have destabilized the wider region, including fueling the rise of the Islamic State group in Iraq.

The summit also comes shortly after Sharaa met with Trump, who announced the lifting of sanctions imposed on Syria during the Assad era. Still, not everyone has been so open to mending relations with Iraq's western neighbor.

Safaa Rashid, a Baghdad resident who lost three cousins in al-Qaeda blasts in 2005, told Middle East Eye last month that he was appalled by Sudani's decision to invite Sharaa.

"[Sharaa] is the face of terrorism," he said. "He must be held accountable. I lost three cousins to his group’s violence... How can someone like this be welcomed as if he were an honored guest?"

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 21:00

"I Don't Know What To Do!": Borrowers Report Credit-Score Carnage As Student Loans Hit Reports

Last week we noted new report from the New York Federal Reserve, which showed that while Americans' credit card debt is falling, credit scores are starting to decline due to an uptick in student loan delinquencies. 

The NY Fed's Center for Macroeconomic Data's quarterly report reveals that overall household debt rose by $167 billion - with credit card debt declining by $29 billion. Yet, the delinquency rate for student loans surged from below 1% to nearly 7.7% after a pandemic-era pause on student loan payments was lifted in September 2023.

While the payments were resumed, policymakers extended a one-year ramp-up period that shielded borrowers' missed payments from being reported to credit bureaus. This extension expired in October 2024, with delinquencies starting to hit the first quarter of 2025. 

Needless to say, it's total carnage among borrowers, as one can see from Reddit's 'StudentLoans' forum.

"My credit score dropped 240+ points. i dont know what to do!!" said one Redditor, who says she can't pay her bills because she doesn't have a job after graduating in 2024.

"My score was in the high 700s and dropped to about 480," said another Redditor, who said they were notified by reporting agency Experian that their credit "took a massive hit."

"My transunion and equifax scores took a -100 hit due to my loans "just being recognized this January,"" reported another borrower.

"My credit dropped from a 720 to a 550," said yet another - who reported having "6 total loans from school" that have been "deferred for a while."

"Credit Got Torched" reads a Friday post. "i am unfortunately 1 of the 9 million people who received delinquency marks on my credit report from the dept of education for student loans, which decreased my credit score by 118 points."

Interestingly, several redditors said their scores tanked from loans taken out in their names that they were unaware of - including the first example, who said "I have 10 student loans overall, 5 sub, 5 unsub, and have never had anything else on my credit or anything, no cards or loans, etc. I did get my identity stolen, but I disputed the loans that were taken out fraudulently, and my score was barely affected at all from it."

According to the NY Fed report, while over half of the newly delinquent borrowers already have subprime credit scores, around 2.4 million borrowers who entered delinquency this year had scores over 620 - which could have allowed them to qualify for auto loans, mortgages, and credit cards, prior to the delinquency being reported. 3.2 million borrowers whose scores were under 620 (56.6% of the newly delinquent population) saw their scores decline by an average of 74 points.

Another 2 million borrowers with scores between 620 - 719 (35.9% of new delinquencies) saw their credit scores fall by an average of 140 points - while there were 400,000 borrowers whose scores were above 720 (7.2% of new delinquencies) that saw their scores fall by over 100 points.

Over 1 million borrowers saw drops of at least 150 points. 

The report found that seven states have a conditional student loan delinquency rate — which excludes borrowers who don't have a payment due — above 30%, including Mississippi (44.6%), Alabama (34.1%), West Virginia (34%), Kentucky (33.6%), Oklahoma (33.6%), Arkansas (33.5%) and Louisiana (31.8%).

At the end of the first quarter, over 20 million federal student loan borrowers weren't in repayment and five million had a zero-dollar monthly payment. -Fox News

"After a five-year hiatus, student loan delinquency has returned to the pre-pandemic 'normal' with more than 10 percent of balances and roughly six million borrowers either past due or in default," according to the NY Fed report, which noted that the collections process that resumed in May includes the "garnishment of wages, tax returns, and Social Security payments."

"Additionally, millions of borrowers face steep declines in their credit standing which will increase borrowing costs or seriously limit their access to credit like mortgages and auto loans."

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 20:25

Los Angeles County Targets Retail Theft With New Warning Program

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Los Angeles County is launching a new program to warn criminals and deter retail theft, according to District Attorney Nathan Hochman, who says local businesses have lost millions of dollars to theft since January.

Retailers can contact local law enforcement to obtain one of 10,000 yellow warning decals to post at their business and inform the public that thefts will be prosecuted by the regional retail theft task force.

The sticker also has a QR code for the public to use to report any crimes.

According to the National Retail Federation, the Los Angeles area is the worst in the nation for organized retail crime.

At a press conference on May 14 in front of a 7-Eleven convenience store in West Los Angeles, Hochman said ending the cycle of catch-and-release in recent years that sent serial retail thieves back on the streets to reoffend is a top priority.

“Small businesses, stores, and even big-box retailers constitute the lifeline of our communities, and the lifeblood of our communities are under attack,” Hochman said.

“They’ve had to deal over the last several years with criminals who had the mistaken belief that you can come into a 7-Eleven, for instance, take whatever you want, leave, and nothing would happen.

“We are here today to explain to them the exact opposite,” he said. “You will be held accountable, you will be arrested, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

The district attorney said he intended to use new authority afforded by Proposition 36, passed by state voters last year, to prosecute thieves and repeat offenders.

The proposition—also known as the “Homelessness, Drug Addiction, and Theft Reduction Act,” went into effect on Dec. 18, 2024.

The new law increased penalties for certain drug and theft crimes, and reclassified some misdemeanors as felonies for repeat offenders. The penalties can include sentences of up to three years in jail or prison if the defendant has already been convicted for certain thefts.

Since December, the county has filed over 1,000 Prop. 36 felony theft charges against repeat offenders, according to Hochman.

“We are armed with an additional set of laws under Prop. 36,” Hochman said.

Los Angeles County District Attorney Nathan Hochman said 10,000 warning decals will be available for local stores beginning May 16, 2025. Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office

Before Prop. 36 went into effect, petty thefts under $950 were classified as misdemeanors, and thefts could not be aggregated to meet the felony threshold, creating a “culture of impunity,” Hochman’s office stated.

One of the felony arrests made since the new law took effect was of Corry Summerville, 38, who was allegedly a serial shoplifter at the 7-Eleven featured in the news conference.

Summerville has been charged with 12 felony charges and one count of robbery related to alleged thefts at the convenience store owned by franchisee Jawad Ursani between January and March.

Four employees resigned, allegedly out of fear of continued encounters with Summerville, according to the Los Angeles Police Department Commanding Officer Capt. Richard Gabaldon.

One of the employees was allegedly violently assaulted when he asked Summerville to pay for items.

“We commend the victim for ultimately coming forward,” Gabaldon said at the news conference.

Los Angeles Councilwoman Katy Yaroslavsky, who represents the district where the 7-Eleven is located, said her family often frequented the store.

“When a store is repeatedly targeted or a theft turns violent, it does more than hurt the business,” Yaroslavsky said at the event. “It makes you wonder if it’s safe to send your kids in. It makes you worry that someone could get caught in the middle. And it makes you feel like no one is in charge.”

The district attorney is also partnering with local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies to investigate and prosecute organized retail crime. Investigators are targeting serial shoplifters, smash-and-grab mobs, and large-scale criminal enterprises.

“This is a warning to all the criminals out there, if you come to these stores and think you’re going to come here and commit a crime, we’re going to arrest you and present a good case to the D.A., and you will go to jail for that,” said LAPD Capt. Francis Boateng, commanding officer of the department’s commercial crimes division.

Convenience store owner Ursani, who has operated the 7-Eleven featured at the news conference for more than 25 years, said he was grateful for the support from Hochman and the law enforcement communities.

“My store was targeted not once, but twice, by a smash-and-grab of about over 50 teenagers and a repeat [alleged] shoplifter who is now detained and will be held accountable by this D.A.’s office as we speak,” Ursani said. “Each incident costs us in stolen goods, broken equipment, staff morale, and personal safety.”

Ursani said he has had to spend thousands of dollars on protection for the store, instead of spending the money on inventory and community investments.

“It’s not just about theft, it’s about fear and instability it brings to everyone who depends on this store and our entire community,” Ursani added.

Prop. 36 has given law enforcement more tools to target operations that harm communities, according to Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department Detective Division Chief Joe Mendoza.

“While Proposition 36 promotes necessary criminal justice reform, it also allows us to focus resources on serious, organized theft operations that harm our communities,” Mendoza said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 19:50

"Black Fatigue" Goes Viral: Everyone Including Blacks Is Tired Of Ghetto Behavior

The progressive ideal is largely to blame for the monstrous creation that is ghetto culture.  The idea that racial narcissism among blacks should not only be tolerated but celebrated has led to a surge in open animosity for societal rules and standards within the US.  Far more than any other group, the black community makes up the largest share of physical crime according to their percentage of the population. This includes robbery, aggravated assault, and homicides.

For example, black Americans make up only 13% of the population but commit around 52% of all homicides according to FBI statistics.  The recent case of Karmelo Anthony comes to mind, a black teen who admitted to stabbing a white teen and killing him because the white teen allegedly "pushed him" (which he argues was a threat that made deadly force justifiable). 

The concept of "disrespect" as an offense that justifies murder is only one problem.  There is an identifiable trend of theatrical sociopathy within the black community that goes far beyond the norm.  The prevailing theory is that this is predominantly cultural - Black Americans have the highest rate of single parent households in the country (50% of black homes compared to 20% of white homes in 2023). Most of these households are run by single mothers.  Single mother homes are a notorious indicator of future criminality among juveniles.  

Then there is the problem of racial victim culture; the false idea that black Americans are being "oppressed" in the US by a systemic conspiracy of white patriarchs.  In reality, white Americans have been exponentially tolerant and have provided special privileges for blacks (affirmative action and DEI), largely because progressive society demands that reparations be made for slavery 150 years ago and segregation 60 years ago.  The form of those reparations has more or less been white guilt and a quiet passiveness in the face of increasing antagonism.   

Leftists claim white people should take it because historically they deserve it.  Ignore the fact that every culture on Earth had institutional slavery and all the slaves sent to the Americas were purchased from African tribes that enslaved other African tribes. 

However, it appears that the black community's precious supply of white guilt has finally run out and people are fed up.  The term "Black Fatigue" has gone viral this week on social media, sparking a much needed conversation among not just whites, but also blacks and other minorities.  The catalyst blamed for the trend is the now widely known "Shiloh Hendrix Incident" which has led to public support and an uproar among progressives who demand the woman be prosecuted for dropping an N-bomb. 

I don’t think it’s so much “black fatigue” as it is POS fatigue which you can see in various races.

For instance, white people are sick of Antifa and radical leftists who coat their entitlement and destruction with pseudo-morality. Hispanic people don’t like border hoppers who… pic.twitter.com/yaHMKKnlj3

— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) May 12, 2025

Perhaps white Americans finally speaking up instead of remaining silent is what was needed all along.  The fear has not been so much about black reprisal, but reprisal from the leftist mob, which until recently had weaponized cancel culture to destroy the lives of anyone speaking outside of prescribed leftist opinions.

The following clips illustrate Black Fatigue in the most symbolic way possible:  An arrogant desire to destroy what other groups build, no matter how meaningless and petty the situation might be.  Never helping, never cooperating, never trying to make things better.

Black fatigue

Who has it? pic.twitter.com/x0aoz9AKBN

— The General (@1776General_) May 17, 2025

And an egotistical need to display power over other groups (especially white people) by sabotaging them even though they have done nothing wrong and want to be left alone. Oversensitive reactions to every perceived slight, creating a psychology of persecution that leads blacks to lash out over everything.  These are habits not limited to individuals, but habits of the culture as a whole.  

This black mother is absolutely terrible as she teaches her baby girl to bully white girls, whom she captions as “baby Karens” in her video. pic.twitter.com/L5ExtXYZGL

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) September 19, 2024

Black fatigue is leading to a dangerous place and it's clear that at least some in the community see what is happening and they're trying to mitigate the damage.  Historically speaking, the next stage would be mass anger and retaliation for such behaviors. 

Hopefully it won't come to that.  If ghetto culture is abandoned and calmer minds prevail then it's likely most racial strife within the US today will disappear as quickly as it gestated.  But this would require that a large portion of black Americans accept the reality that they are not victims and that they are causing the problem.  How likely is it that this will happen given decades of woke indoctrination that says white people are always the  source of every conflict and trespass?    

 

*  *  *

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Click pic... buy seeds... take food supply into your own hands... Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 19:15

Nuclear Names Oklo And NuScale Move Forward With SMR Permitting, Plans

Sam Altman-backed Oklo says it is navigating what CEO Jacob DeWitte calls “good uncertainty” as potential Trump administration executive orders could accelerate Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing, expand military and Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear roles, and boost U.S. nuclear fuel supply chains, according to UtilityDive.

On Oklo’s Q1 2025 earnings call, DeWitte confirmed the company is engaged in a “pre-application readiness assessment” with the NRC, aiming to smooth its formal license submission for a newly upsized 75-MW reactor design in Q4 2025. The company still targets late 2027 or early 2028 for first power production at its Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site.

DeWitte noted the recent departure of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as Oklo board chair removes a potential conflict of interest should OpenAI become a future power customer. Oklo already holds about 14 GW in nonbinding agreements with data centers and industrial operators.

The White House is weighing four nuclear-related executive orders, including directives to overhaul NRC licensing with an 18-month deadline for new applications, reconsider radiation exposure limits, and authorize military and DOE property for reactor deployments—potentially bypassing standard NRC approvals.

These efforts aim to boost U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050, up from about 100 GW today. While the NRC is already implementing changes from last year’s ADVANCE Act, further reforms could shorten Oklo’s expected 24- to 30-month licensing timeline.

The UtilityDive report says that Oklo is also among eight companies eligible for the military’s Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations program, enabling on-base reactor deployments. It’s developing nuclear fuel fabrication facilities capable of reusing spent fuel that would otherwise sit in long-term storage.

Meanwhile, NuScale Power is actively pursuing contracts for its small modular reactor (SMR) technology, targeting a firm customer order by the end of 2025. CEO John Hopkins said the company could deliver an operational power plant by 2030 “if we get closure on a deal here soon.” NuScale is awaiting expected NRC approval in July for its uprated 77-MW design and has 12 modules in production through manufacturing partner Doosan, capable of delivering up to 20 per year.

Hopkins emphasized NuScale’s focus on finalizing real contracts rather than nonbinding agreements, stating, “We’re actually in the process of submitting and negotiating term sheets. We’ve got customers that [want] to … touch steel.” Potential buyers include data center operators, heavy industry, and utilities. CFO Ramsey Hamady added that a signed deal would likely involve multiple parties, including plant operators and tier-one data center or AI developers.

Unlike Oklo’s build-own-operate model, NuScale provides SMR technology and plant services, likening its role to “the chip in the Dell computer.” While NuScale has courted data center customers similar to Oklo, it also promotes its reactors for hydrogen production, desalination, carbon capture, and petrochemicals.

NuScale has about two years of financial runway but expects a committed project to significantly improve its outlook. “We’ll be in a great place if our biggest challenge is keeping up with orders,” Hamady said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 15:45

"We Study Fascism...We're Leaving The US": NYTimes Runs Video Of Yale Profs Fleeing To Canada

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The New York Times continues to work tirelessly to maintain the narrative that the United States is now a fascist regime. Earlier, the Times demonstrated its view of balanced analysis by running a collection of legal opinions titled “A Road Map to Trump’s Lawless Presidency.” Now, it is featuring three Yale professors fleeing fascism for the safety of Canada, making direct references to the rise of the Nazis. The video is titled “These Yale Professors Study Fascism.”

All three professors are going permanently to Canada to teach at the University of Toronto. It appears that the systemic rollback of free speech for conservatives in Canada is not a deterrent for Yale professors longing to be free.

The seven-minute opinion video features the three scholars:  Yale philosophy Professor Jason Stanley and history professors Marci Shore and Timothy Snyder (who are married).

Shore insisted that the United States is now a fascist country replicating the Nazi takeover. Indeed, she mocks those of us who believe that our constitutional system has proven itself for centuries as a guarantor of civil liberties, including our system of checks and balances. Shore dismisses such assurances while suggesting that the American people are a virtual ship of fools in not recognizing the fascists all around them: “The lesson of 1933 is that you get out sooner rather than later.” She added that Americans are

“like people on the Titanic saying, ‘Our ship can’t sink.’ We’ve got the best ship. We’ve got the strongest ship. We’ve got the biggest ship. Our ship can’t sink,” she said. “And what you know as a historian is that there is no such thing as a ship that can’t sink.”

Professor Snyder declared that Americans are deluding themselves:

“If you think there is this thing out there called ‘America,’ and it’s exceptional, that means that you don’t have to do anything. Whatever is happening, it must be freedom. Soon, you are using the word freedom, what you are talking about is authoritarianism.”

The New York Times splices in ominous images of migrants being detained, children crying, and anti-Israel protesters being arrested. It also shows the image of Elon Musk’s alleged Nazi salute, a ridiculous claim fostered by the media.

Previously, Snyder did interviews claiming an oligarchic conspiracy led by Musk:

“we’re shifting from a democracy, which had some pretty heavy oligarchical streaks running through it, toward something like an oligarchy, in which I think it’s fair to say that it’s not Trump who’s the most important person. It’s Musk. Trump has debts. Musk has money. Trump has debts specifically to Musk for getting him elected. And I think the burden of proof is actually on Trump to show that he has any room for maneuver in this system. And it’s going to be interesting to see how congressional Republicans react, because what this particular oligarch wants is to break the federal government. And whatever their views might be, not — many of them don’t actually want the United States of America to cease to exist so that oligarchs can pick up the pieces.”

That is who the New York Times featured in its latest apocalyptic diatribe. What is interesting about one interview is how Snyder predicts Trump will engage in censorship through litigation, noting that it will not involve direct censorship barred by the First Amendment. He entirely ignores the massive censorship system of conservatives fostered by the Biden Administration on social media. That was apparently not something that you would speak out against, let alone leave the country over.

Professor Stanley’s past contributions to the political debate include his condemnation of “the right-wing hateosphere” in a diatribe that he later reaffirmed:

I am really, truly, embarrassed by the fact that my mild comment ‘F[**]k those assholes’ is being spread. This wildly understates my actual sentiments towards homophobic religious proponents of evil like Richard Swinburne, who use their status as professional philosophers to oppress others with less power. I am SO SORRY for using such mild language.

In the New York Times video, Stanley clinically explains that “you know you’re living in a fascist society when you’re constantly going over in your head the reasons why you’re safe. What we want is a country where none of us have to feel that way.”

It is a curious statement. Most of us fight to preserve our civil liberties to maintain a country that remains the longest, most stable, and most successful constitutional system in history. We do not dramatically pick up our things and stomp out of the country in a self-aggrandizing huff.

Losing elections can certainly make some “feel that way,” but for the rest of the country, it seemed like democracy at work. In the meantime, our courts are sorting out challenges to Trump executive orders, with many judges, including Trump appointees, ruling against the Administration. Those are the pesky “checks and balances” that Professor Shore blissfully dismissed in the New York Times video.

What is truly striking is that even Yale (which has purged virtually all conservatives from its faculty ranks) is not sufficiently “safe” for these three academic émigrés. They are going to the University of Toronto and Ontario to feel truly safe.

Of course, Ontario is not viewed as a safe space for many conservatives or contrarians. It proved hardly protective for University of Toronto professor emeritus Jordon Peterson when he was ordered to take mandatory training classes to curb his controversial writings. That order was upheld by successive Canadian courts.

So now these three academics will relocate to Toronto to teach Canadian students about fascism. They may, however, want to tread lightly on the subject of free speech.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 15:10

David Stockman On Why America Doesn't Need "Allies"

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

The title is a bit crude and is deliberately mocking in tone. But it has to be because there is a deeply-entrenched, almost sacred presumption embedded in the nation’s foreign policy catechism that “allies”, “alliances” and “coalitions of the willing” are the be-all-and-end-all of enlightened, necessary and effective foreign policy.

American policy-makers and diplomats perforce should therefore never leave these shores for the wider world without them. This dogma perhaps reached its epitome in Secretary of State James Baker’s “coalition of the willing” during the utterly pointless first Gulf War of 1991 and has plagued us ever since. Unfortunately.

In fact, the truth is more nearly the opposite–so it needs to be stated coarsely, almost defiantly. To wit, allies in today’s world are mostly an albatross, completely irrelevant to the military security of the American homeland and a major source of unnecessary friction and even outright conflict among the nations.

In a word, America is such an outsized economic and military Hegemon that all the little and mid-sized nation’s it has lined-up in formal and de facto alliances are inherently incentivized to pursue policies that minimize their own defense investments—even as they are also encouraged to throw diplomatic caution to the winds. That is, Washington’s “alliances” enable the domestic politicians or elected governments of these small allies to be more aggressive or confrontational vis-a-vis the “bad guys” designated by Washington than they surely would be if operating only upon their own steam.

For instance, the former Estonian prime minister between 2021 and 2024, Kaja Kallas, and now foreign affairs chief for the EU has been a loud-mouthed, vitriolic critic of Russia and hardline supporter of sending other people’s money [i.e. yours] to the support of the equally pointless proxy war against Russia on the Ukrainian steppes.

Of course, with a population of just 1.3 million, GDP of barely $40 billion and armed force of 8,000, Estonia amounts to a cipher of an ally in the scheme of things. So it does absolutely nothing for America’s homeland security, even as it has emboldened Kallas to become a loud irritant to the Big Bear of a country next door.

Then again, if there were no such thing as NATO and the Article 5 military shield of the US, do you think Kallas would be noisily whooping it up for Zelensky? Would her people have tolerated her posturing as little David waving a sling-shot at the Goliath next door?

We dare say the very opposite would have prevailed. Estonia and its leader would have taken care to make nice to their extra large sized neighbor—as small countries have done from times immemorial.

And if making diplomatic nice and conducting mutually beneficial economic commerce wasn’t working for some reason, although it almost always does, they would have been obligated to arm themselves to the hilt. That is, mobilize 10-25% of GDP for defense, if necessary, rather than the pittance of 2.9% of GDP that Estonia actually spends. In turn, that would establish deterrence—the standing up to a potential aggressor the heavy cost in blood and treasure it would be obligated to face in breaching the borders and sovereignty of a smaller neighbor.

And, no, for crying out loud, the 21st century world is not unique when it comes to the relationships between big, small and middle sized nations. What we described above as making nice in diplomacy and economics and making deterrence clear is actually the way the world of nations is supposed to work, and, prior to the rise of the Hegemon on the Potomac, actually usually did.

Most certainly the gods of history have not conferred upon Washington’s politicians and apparatchiks a mandate to befriend and safeguard  from one end of the planet to the other every Little Guy from the heavy breathing of nearby Big Guys.

Kaja Kallas on X: “Ukraine’s brave and fierce fight for freedom has been an “inspiration” to the Estonian people. Many have joined the voluntary Defence League.

Indeed, in a world not dislocated by the Hegemon on the Potomac no one would think to describe the reckless foolishness of Kiev in militarily attacking and brutalizing the Russian speaking populations of the Donbas after the Maidan Coup of February 2014 as an “inspiration”. 

It was actually stupid beyond belief—something that neighbors not addled by the Hegemon’s military shield or egged on by the CIA, NED, USAID, the State Department and Pentagon would have no problem recognizing and observing.

Indeed that observation applies to the whole passel of little countries that have been admitted to NATO since the turn of the century.  For instance, when it comes to the five  small Balkan countries that do not even share the Black Sea shorelines with Russia, here is the pitiful military capacity and defense heft (measured as % of GDP) that they bring to America’s homeland security.

In order to put this pittance of military manpower in perspective, moreover, we first note by way of comparison the size of police forces in major US cities. While these domestic police men, women and theys may eat too many donuts on the job and thereby fail any combat readiness tests, when it comes to sheer human muscle the city police forces listed here outrank most of what these Balkan “allies” bring to the table.

Size of Police Forces In Major US Cities:

• New York City: 36,000.
• Chicago: 13,100.
• Los Angeles: 10,000.
• Philadelphia: 6,500.

This is by way of saying that all of the above cities have bigger forces of men in blue than do most of the small the NATO allies depicted below, where we show their active military manpower and their defense spending as a % of GDP.

• Croatia: 14,300/1.8% of GDP.
• North Macedonia: 8,000/1.7% of GDP.
• Slovenia: 7,300/1.5% of GDP.
• Albania: 6,600/1.7% of GDP.
• Montenegro: 2,350/1.6% of GDP.

Clearly, these countries are not shaking in their boots about the Russian Bear. In the most recent year of red hot proxy war between NATO and Russia on the hapless steppes of the Ukraine, none of these five even bothered to spend 2% of GDP on defense!

Indeed, even the bigger fry positioned cheek-by-jowl with Russia on the Black Sea didn’t evince any greater fear of the Bear. Romania spends only 2.2% of GDP on defense and its voters just elected a president who wanted to make friendly with Putin—which democratic chosen leader was, of course, ixnayed by Romania’s “allies” in Brussels and Washington.

Likewise, Bulgaria spends but 2.2% on defense, as well. And, understandably, Serbia has not even seen fit to join NATO. Well, not since its capital was bombed to smithereens in 1999 by NATO war planes, owing to its insistence that Kosovo not be severed from its sovereign territory owing to the writ of Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Even then as Russia’s firm ally in the region, Serbia spends about 2.3% of GDP on defense and has about 28,000 active men in uniform in its armed forces. That is, Serbia’s neutral forces total about the same as the combined military might of the five small fry on the Adriatic side of the Balkans.

Moreover, it also turns out that these five wee NATO members actually spend about the same pittance for military capabilities as is hoovered-up by Ukraine-bordering Hungary and Slovakia. The former spends about 2.0% of GDP on defense while the latter’s military spending is 2.1% of GDP. Yet both governments next door to the  Russian Bear are militantly opposed to the NATO proxy war in Ukraine and successfully get along with Moscow quite well!

In short, none of these countries really seem to fear the Russian Bear or they would be spending double digit percentages of their GDP making themselves so well armed as to make a unappetizing meal for the alleged aggressor in Moscow. To the contrary, they have either joined NATO to get into the Atlantic Club or have simply eschewed the opportunity (Serbia) or gone along for the ride (Hungary and Slovakia).

The point is, extending NATO to the Balkans was a stupid joke perpetrated by Warfare State apparatchiks in Washington and Brussels. It does absolutely nothing for America’s homeland defense militarily, while enabling Russia’s small next door neighbors to spend a pittance for defense and from time to time squeak-up to the Bear in a provocative manner that they would not dream of doing on the strength of 8,000 lightly armed soldiers of their own.

Of course, the same thing is true up north on the Baltic. The three Baltic republics both experienced and do remember their decades of Soviet occupation. Yet their present day budgetary statements make abundantly clear that they do not really perceive post-communist Russia to be the same existential same threat at all. That’s why they spend nickels and dimes on make-pretend militaries, even as their politicians like Kallas demagogue about Putin in order to stir up the home voters and incur the favor of the warmongering neocon apparatchiks who dominate the NATO and the EU.

Still, no countries with the wafer-thin military capacities depicted in the numbers below truly fear their Russian neighbor. If they did, with or without NATO, they’d put their budgetary dollars where the unfortunate rhetoric of some of the loud-mouthed politicians lies.

Armed Forces Size and Defense % of GDP:

• Lithuania: 14,100/2.8% of GDP.
• Estonia: 7,700/2.9% of GDP.
• Latvia: 6,750/2.4% of GDP.

In short, the Donald’s observations about the state of the world usually amount to a random collection of the true, the false and the foolish. But in the case of all these pipsqueak NATO allies he surely hit the nail on the head.

Washington’s “Allies” in The Baltics

That is to say, all of these allies are far more trouble than they are worth. The military security of the American homeland can be secured by an invincible strategic nuclear triad based on bombers, land-based ICBMs and its deep sea nuclear subs–none of which require foreign bases or foreign “allies”. That, and a powerful conventional Fortress America defense of its shorelines and air space would more than do the job of maintaining the military security of the American homeland in today’s world.

Neither of these military capabilities are enhanced in the slightest by the pipsqueak allies that have been drafted into NATO since 1999. Nor in today’s world is there any risk that a larger power as economically lame as Russia or Ponzi-based as Red China could attack, conquer and roll-up tens of trillions of GDP, military age manpower and defense production capacities among large numbers of their small fry neighbors.

Indeed, both Russia and China well know that the cost of invasion, conquest and pacification in today’s world would not remotely be worth the candle. That’s perhaps why the answer to the question as to how many countries Red China has conquered in the last four decades is, well,  zero!

To the contrary, what America’s 750 bases and 160,000 servicemen positioned abroad from Japan to Germany, Italy and the UK actually amount to are dangerous “trip wires”designed to:

• Provide an excuse for US defense contractors to sell weapons to the allied nations where US forces are based.
• Create an excuse to meddle in foreign conflicts owing to the fact that American servicemen are in harms’ way.

Suffice it here to note that during the heyday of America’s development as the greatest nation on earth—from the cancellation of the treaty with France in 1797 to the ratification of the NATO Treaty in 1949—America had no alliances, no military treaties and no allies empowered to provoke conflicts with their neighbors on the understanding that Uncle Sam had their backs.

He didn’t and during those 152 years everything worked out for America as well as any nation in history before or since. And absolutely nothing has changed to alter the wisdom of Washington and Jefferson about avoidance of Entangling Alliances.

*  *  *

The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. It could cause the most significant disaster since the 1930s. Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 15:10

Doug Casey On DOGE, Deficits, & The Coming Financial Earthquake

Via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: What’s your perspective on the claims Elon Musk and others made about the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) during the campaign, and how would you assess the actual progress they’ve achieved since then?

Doug Casey: I hate to sound pessimistic, because the idea of DOGE was excellent, but it’s not making much in the way of progress. Musk first thought he could cut $2 trillion from the budget. I see how he could say that; it’s a very reasonable estimate. But as he discovered the depth of the resistance, he reduced it to $1 trillion. And now it’s $150 billion—and he’s probably not even going to be able to do that.

Why is it failing? One reason is that Congress has legislated and mandated most of the spending, and the hundreds of agencies that carry it out—and Trump can’t eliminate them. Congress has to abolish these programs and agencies. All DOGE can do is make recommendations.

It’s true that the USAID building is closed, but apparently, many of its employees and programs have just simply been reassigned to the State Department or other places. They’ve made no progress on getting rid of the Department of Education.

I’m sure Trump very much wants to see DOGE be successful, but unfortunately its very name is “Government Efficiency,” and I question whether we really want the government to be more efficient. The only way to solve the problem isn’t by making government more efficient, but by abolishing agencies wholesale—not just trimming some fat.

Will there be a fundamental change? That’s unlikely because, as I’ve said many times before, Trump has no philosophical center. Nor any understanding of economics, as evidenced by his tariffs scheme, which I think will fail utterly—and may even be the catalyst that sets off the Greater Depression. He’s flying by the seat of his pants.

Equally bad—or worse—he appears to want an industrial policy for the US, where he’ll be making investments in all kinds of things to make the US a manufacturing center again. It’s like what Argentina did under the Peronists. He does whatever seems like a good idea at the time…

International Man: With Elon Musk signaling his impending departure from DOGE, how do you foresee the future of DOGE and its initiatives unfolding without his leadership?

Doug Casey: As Chairman Mao once said, “The helmsman sets the course that sails the ship.” And if the helmsman jumps ship, it’s questionable whether other crewmen can take over successfully. Maybe they will. But without the public profile and moral suasion of Musk, I suspect that the people he leaves in charge of this advisory agency will flounder.

And, remember, DOGE itself has no power. But the Deep State has an immense amount of power, and they’re fighting it tooth and nail—both with go-slow policies and by filing lawsuits everywhere possible to stop it from happening.

In the long run, just cutting things back can’t possibly work. It’s like pruning a plant. Gardeners prune plants to make them healthier. If you just prune agencies, they’ll grow back even more virulent. The only solution is for scores of them—hundreds of them—to be pulled out by the roots and Agent Orange sown where they grew. That’s not happening.

For instance, take Ukraine. Zelensky has become a billionaire, as have all his cronies, and the fighting is still going on. Why? Because the US is still sending them money and materiel.

I’m afraid serious cuts are bluster, not reality. And where can they really cut things? Are they going to take money away from the Veterans Administration or military pensions? No. Certainly not from the military itself—Trump has said they’re going to increase spending from $800 billion to $1 trillion. Are they going to cut back Medicare or Social Security? Abolish Medicaid? They should, but they won’t. These things, along with interest on the national debt, equal about 85% of spending.

They can’t reduce the interest burden on the federal debt; it will continue growing with more spending and higher interest rates. Which, I suspect, are headed toward the levels we saw in the early 1980s, when the government was paying 20% for its money.

Musk has said he’s found thousands of egregious cases of waste, fraud, and abuse that should be referred to the Department of Justice. But that’s far, far more than the DOJ can handle. Where are the headlines about prosecutions for the things Musk has talked about? I’m quite disappointed. I’d like to see hundreds of heads on stakes, but it looks like the bedbugs and cockroaches are just going to hide while the lights are on.

International Man: Do you believe DOGE’s proposed cuts will lead to genuine, permanent reductions in government spending—or will they simply free up funds for Washington to redirect toward areas like defense?

Doug Casey: All kinds of obvious things aren’t being touched—like the $50 billion the US gives to foreign governments around the world, a bottomless pit of graft. That’s not going to change. Certainly not the $4 billion the US gives to Israel every year, or the $4 billion it gives to Egypt every year to bribe it into being Israel’s BFF.

One thing that will kill any real progress from DOGE is subtle threats from the Deep State in general, and the praetorian agencies in particular. The NSA knows everything about everybody. If any DOGE employee gets too aggressive about breaking rice bowls or imprisoning bigwigs, they’ll be intimidated. These agencies know, or can fabricate, inconvenient things about them.

Or perform a cover up. Look at the Epstein case. We were supposed to learn what Epstein was up to, and with who. But everything’s being heavily redacted to protect guilty but well-connected people. The elite always close ranks to protect each other.

It’s all smoke but no fire. These agencies—with all the information they have—can destroy anyone who attacks them. If not now, while Trump is still in office, they’ll certainly seek retribution after he leaves. Our best hope—but it’s a long shot—is that Trump will realize that it’s kill or be killed, and will try to destroy them utterly while he’s still in power. That would be inviting civil war… but he has no real alternative.

International Man: Given that DOGE represents the most significant attempt to reduce government spending in generations, what are the implications if it fails?

Doug Casey: The economy is on the ragged edge, and with the tariffs creating economic chaos the Democrats may be re-elected in 2028. In fact, they may even win the midterms, which would guarantee that all of Trump’s efforts fail.

If the Democrats regain control of the government, they’ll redouble spending to try to forestall the Greater Depression and kick the can down the road for a few more years. And they’ll be supported by the American people, who are going to miss all the freebies the government was bribing them with. The average American has become so corrupt that he doesn’t want to have his doggy dish taken away.

For a while, during the first month of Trump’s presidency, it looked like it was going to once again be morning in America. But we’re finding out that morning only lasts six hours—and we’re already past noon. Things look quite grim.

International Man: As the US debt crisis intensifies, what steps should individuals take to protect their wealth—and what speculative opportunities do you see emerging from this turmoil?

Doug Casey: Even if we avoid a major war, I’m afraid the trend that’s been in motion for many decades is going to stay in motion and continue accelerating until the whole mess collapses under its own weight.

The US has become a giant multicultural empire revolving around the Washington Beltway. It could go down catastrophically the way Rome did. Or it may just degrade slowly like Spain or England. They still exist, but they’re hollow shells of their previous selves.

The financial, economic, political, and social problems we’re laboring under are leading to a breakup of the country. So, instead of the US getting bigger with the extremely expensive acquisitions of Greenland, the Panama Canal Zone, and—God forbid—Canada, the US is more likely to get smaller.

All you can do is try to insulate yourself. The way to do that is by diversifying your money safely out of the country and continuing to build significant positions in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. With hopefully some successful speculations along the way.

*  *  *

As Doug Casey makes clear, the US is spiraling toward a financial and political reckoning—and few are prepared for what comes next. In times like these, it’s critical to focus on real assets that stand outside the system. That’s why we urge you to see Doug’s latest video dispatch: The World’s #1 Investment Opportunity. In it, the legendary investor reveals what the mainstream media won’t tell you about gold—and why now may be the most important time in decades to act. Click here to see it now.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 14:00

Vietnam Q1 Auto Sales Outperform Asian Peers, Rising 24%, Led By Chinese Brands

Vietnam led Southeast Asia’s auto sales growth in Q1 2025, with a 24% year-on-year surge, outpacing larger markets thanks to strong economic momentum and rising public investment, according to Nikkei Asia.

Nikkei Asia data shows total sales across Southeast Asia’s five biggest markets—Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam—fell 1.7% to 732,898 vehicles.

In Vietnam, hybrid vehicle sales soared 80% to 2,562 units, driven by new models from Toyota and Suzuki. Commercial vehicles and trucks also saw strong gains, rising 22% and 21% to 15,445 and 13,400 units, respectively, supported by a 19.8% jump in public investment to $4.67 billion.

“We expect Vietnam's passenger car sales, excluding VinFast and some luxury brands, to grow 15% year on year in 2025,” said Thuc Than, an analyst at Vietcap Securities. “Our forecast does not take into account a possible negative outcome of the tariff negotiations,” she added, warning that higher tariffs could pose risks to growth.

Vietnam’s official auto sales stood at 118,813 vehicles, but including VinFast’s 35,100 units and Hyundai’s 11,464 units, total sales would surpass the Philippines’ 117,074 units.

The Philippines saw solid 7% growth, led by a 13.9% rise in commercial vehicle sales, even as passenger car sales fell 13.7%. EV and hybrid sales accounted for 5.73% of the market.

Thailand’s market shrank 7% to 153,193 vehicles, with ICE passenger car sales down 14% and pickup truck sales down 13%. EV sales, however, grew 19% to 22,737 units, boosted by Chinese brands like BYD, which saw March sales jump nearly threefold.

Nikkei Asia writes that despite the yearly decline, Thailand’s Q1 sales rose 14% quarter-on-quarter, topping 150,000 units for the first time in a year, aided by price cuts and promotions.

Malaysia, Southeast Asia’s second-largest market, also slowed. Sales fell 7.4% to 188,100 vehicles as backlogs cleared and the market normalized. March sales rose slightly by 2.2%, supported by aggressive marketing campaigns.

Chinese brands are making rapid inroads in Malaysia’s EV market. Proton’s first EV, the e.MAS 7, launched in December, has already received over 5,500 orders, with a second model, the e.MAS 5, expected later this year.

“The Chinese brands are offering very competitive and affordable prices,” said Periasamy Arumugam of Great Wall Motors. Jerry Chan of Jetour added, “Malaysian customers prefer big cars like SUVs,” noting that Jetour plans to manufacture vehicles locally in Johor to meet demand.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 13:25

The Ball's In Trump's Court After The Latest Istanbul Talks

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The mixed signals that he sent on Friday suggest that he hasn’t made up his mind about what to do...

The first bilateral Russian-Ukrainian talks in over three years were held in Istanbul on Friday after Zelensky agreed, likely under pressure from Trump, to Putin’s proposal from the week prior. They didn’t result in the unconditional 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine demanded nor did Ukraine agree to withdraw from the entirety of the disputed regions like Russia demanded, but they did agree to a prisoner swap and to hold another round of talks sometime in the future. They therefore weren’t for nothing.

Most importantly, Russia and Ukraine were able to show Trump that they’re interested in peace after he signaled his increasing impatience with the US’ hitherto unsuccessful mediation between them, which could result in him either “escalating to de-escalate” or simply walking away from the conflict. Prior to making his fateful choice about the future of American involvement, Trump will likely hold talks with Putin, at the very least over the phone but ideally in person sometime in the coming weeks.

After all, the ball’s now in his court after the Russian and Ukrainian positions have proven to be irreconcilable, so Russia will either inevitably obtain its maximum goals by continuing to rely on military means to that end or the US will double down on support for Ukraine in order to prevent that outcome. The only realistic compromise would be if the US successfully coerces Ukraine into withdrawing from some or all of the disputed regions in exchange for Russia agreeing to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

The US hasn’t yet attempted that even though it could have tried doing so anytime over the past three months since Trump returned to the White House, however, thus leading to the aforesaid scenario branch. It therefore remains unclear exactly what Trump will do. On the one hand, he just threatened Russia with “crushing” sanctions, but he also just complained about the billions that the US “pissed away” in support of Ukraine. It accordingly looks like he himself hasn’t yet decided how to proceed.

“Escalating to de-escalate” would entail enormous financial and strategic costs, the latter with regard to potentially offsetting his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia” for more muscularly containing China and even risking World War III in the worst-case scenario. 

At the same time, walking away would lead to him owning what could then soon become one of the West’s worst geopolitical defeats. The middle ground between these extremes could be strictly enforced secondary sanctions against Russia’s energy clients.

To elaborate, the aim would be to pressure China and India into drastically curtailing their imports, the first as a “goodwill gesture” after Trump’s newly announced “total reset” in their ties and the second as a means to signal its worth to the US in the hopes that Trump reconsiders his incipient pivot to Pakistan. Nevertheless, one or both might still refuse to comply or secretly continue to purchase large amounts of Russian energy, thus forcing the US to either turn a blind eye or worsen ties by sanctioning them.

A blend of these scenarios could see Trump threatening Zelensky with a clean break from this conflict if he doesn’t withdraw from Donbass while threatening Putin with strictly enforced secondary sanctions if he doesn’t accept a (unconditional?) 30-day ceasefire in the event that this happens. Calls could then be made to Xi and Modi to inform them of his plans in the hope that they’ll convince Putin to agree. Such a proposal would be the most pragmatic one from the US’ perspective and could lead to a breakthrough.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 12:50

Manhunt Underway: 3 Inmates Caught, 7 Still Loose After Brazen New Orleans Jailbreak

Late Friday night, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry announced on X that law enforcement had recaptured three of the ten violent inmates who escaped from a New Orleans jail through a hole in the wall behind a toilet.

"3 down, 7 to go, and we ARE NOT slowing down!" Landry said, adding, "LOCK THEM UP!" 

3 down 7 to go, and we ARE NOT slowing down!

LOCK THEM UP! pic.twitter.com/h8K5cQRwY1

— Jeff Landry (@JeffLandry) May 17, 2025

The brazen jailbreak was caught on video.  

Most shocking: The escape wasn’t discovered until a routine headcount around 8:30 a.m., giving the fugitives more than seven hours of freedom before the alarm was raised. https://t.co/FOaCTMtvEc

— Brian Entin (@BrianEntin) May 17, 2025

Before the inmates escaped, they left humorous messages on the wall for correctional officers, including "To easy LoL."

According to Sheriff Susan Hutson, the inmates broke out of the jail in Orleans Parish around 0100 local time on Friday. 

"We have indication that these detainees received assistance in their escape from individuals inside of our department," Hutson said. She noted that one jail employee saw the great escape through surveillance footage but did not report it. 

It wasn't until 0830 local time that jail authorities noticed the missing men after a routine head count, according to the sheriff. That gave the inmates a gap of plus seven hours to flee the area. 

The seven inmates still at large are Corey Boyd, Leo Tate, Jermaine Donald, Derrick Groves, Lenton Vanburen, Antoine T. Massey, and Gary C. Price. Those apprehended include Kendall Myles, Robert Moody, and Dkenan Dennis.

Meanwhile, we're not sure if the New Orleans police chief is after the escapees or the Batman...

JUST IN: New Orleans Cpt. Stephanie Minto-Gibson wears bizarre glasses to a press conference to give an update on the 10 inmates who escaped jail.

Only one of the inmates has been caught as of this time after the group escaped by removing a toilet from the wall.

What a… pic.twitter.com/CQcOOMyUwN

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) May 16, 2025

Inside job?

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 12:15

Recession Probabilities Decline

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The “Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” Rally

Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following “Liberation Day.” However, we also made competing cases for the bulls and bears on the market’s next move.

“It is always difficult to say whether this is a ‘bear market’ rally while you are in the midst of it. In hindsight, these things are easy to identify, and investors have plenty of reasons to play the ‘could’ve, should’ve’ game. However, some valid arguments exist about why the recent correction was just that, and may now be over.”

This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as shown, the markets are reaching decently overbought levels after being extremely oversold. This suggests that at least for now, the “easy money” has been made. With the market above the 200, and above the 50 and 20-DMA, pullbacks should be between 5600 and 5800. Investors can use such a pullback to increase portfolio equity exposures and reduce hedges accordingly. Conversely, 5000 to 5200 becomes the next critical target if those lower supports are violated. However, such would require some unexpected event to unfold.

Given the reduction in tariff-related risk and stable economic data, we suspect the market will hold bullish support. That statement follows our analysis from earlier this week, which discussed whether we have returned to a bull market or if this is still a bear market rally. That analysis compared the current market advance to the 2022 corrective cycle. However, that article elicited quite a few comments about why the recent “tariff” sell-off could be like the 2020 COVID-pandemic decline and recovery. It’s a fair question and worth a few words.

2020 vs 2025

As shown, there is an analogy between the current market recovery and that seen in 2020 following the pandemic. However, it is worth remembering that there are many competing differences between the current macroeconomic backdrop and that of 2020.

However, as we discussed in that previous analysis, even a “can’t stop, won’t stop bull market” gives those who can be patient better risk/reward opportunities to increase equity exposures. For example, after the initial rally off the March 2020 lows, the market pulled back and consolidated briefly before rallying further. Then, another longer consolidation process that year provided another entry point for bullish investors.

The weekly Technical Gauge we produce each week in this newsletter below follows the same path as 2020. While not yet back to bullish technical extremes, it is moving quickly higher to more elevated levels. When those readings reached 80, the market went through a longer consolidation process in 2020.

So, is this 2022 where the recent rally will fail and test lower levels? Maybe. Or, is it more like 2020, where the rally continues with only mild pullbacks along the way? Possibly. The true answer is that I don’t know. However, it is worth considering that there are many macroeconomic differences today compared to 2020. That lack of fiscal and monetary support, slowing economic growth, and tighter monetary policy are headwinds to higher stock prices. But, it is logical that the latest bullish market action has investors questioning a more cautious approach to the markets.

The same is true for us. We are currently underweight equities and hedged. However, the need for hedges is quickly declining, and the need for equity exposure is increasing. It’s a tough battle between creating portfolio performance and risk management. We are sticking with risk management until things become more certain, at least for now.

This week, we will discuss why another bearish case is fading – recession probabilities are falling.

A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Coliseum

“A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Coliseum” is a hysterical play by Craig Sodaro. In the play, Simplcuss, a naive Swiss farmer, heads for Rome to follow his dream of becoming a stand-up comedian; little does he know what adventures are in store. Stumbling into the house of General Spurius Sillius in search of food and water, he’s mistaken for the dreaded gladiator, Terribilus, who is due to fight in the Colosseum the following day. Simplcuss has to figure out how to save himself, and he overhears the General’s wife, Drusilla, and Senator Publius Piscious plotting to kill the Emperor’s daughter and the Emperor himself!

Without telling you the ending, there are many similarities to the current market. Over the last several months, the media headlines have been filled with stories of “Recessionus Terribulus.” Whether President Trump planned to deport illegal immigrants, Elon Musk and DOGE cutting government spending, or lately the fears of tariffs, all played into the media headlines of an impending recession.

Of course, there was also economic data to help support those claims. As discussed in the “Consumer Is Tapping Out,” rising delinquency rates are problematic. Particularly, for an economy driven by personal consumption. To wit:

“The current data point toward a recessionary risk. Deflation is highly correlated to economic growth rates, wages, and rates. Unsurprisingly, recessions reduce inflation as demand for goods and services collapses. While inflation may be “sticky,” the recent decline in bond yields and wages suggests consumer demand will decline this year. When tariffs, an additional tax on consumers, increase the cost burden, the reaction historically is not expansionary.”

Furthermore, last weekend’s #BullBearReport noted the rather sharp negative revisions to earnings estimates for the S&P 500 index.

“Given the slowdown in economic growth rates, it is unsurprising that, as of May 1st, S&P Global finally acquiesced and revised earnings estimates lower. However, this wasn’t a mild earnings revision but a slashing of estimates from their April 15th expectation of $292/share in 2026 to just $274. Furthermore, full-year 2025 reported earnings estimates were cut by nearly $20/share from $258/share to just $238/share.”

However, what is interesting is that despite these and several other indicators suggesting an increase in recessionary risk, the financial markets are currently putting in one of the strongest rallies we have seen since the COVID pandemic. Of course, much of that rally came on the heels of the relief of the sharp reduction of tariffs on China, one of the U.S.’s key trading partners.

As such, while Wall Street analysts and economists were slashing economic growth and earnings estimates just a month ago, striking fear into investors’ hearts, that has now reversed.

Recession Probabilities Are Falling

Following the announcements of trade deals with both the UK and China, recession probabilities for 2025 declined. Now, economists are rushing to reverse those previous recession calls.

The reality is that the onerous tariff levels initiated by the Trump administration were never permanent. This was a mistaken assumption by the mainstream media. Furthermore, the “inflation impact” from tariffs, which was expected to cause the recession, has yet to appear. Such is evident in both inflation reports this past week. The chart below shows the composite CPI/PPI index and whether inflation is above or below the long-term average inflation rate. Currently, inflation is 2% below its long-term average.

Inflation failing to appear is unsurprising and something we discussed in detail in “Tariffs Roil Markets.” In their rush to undermine the current administration, the media also failed to consider two important facts we discussed previously.

“The first is that Trump’s tariffs are a ‘stick and carrot’ for negotiating an agreement with both Mexico and Canada. As you will see, all he wanted was assistance in securing the borders, reducing illegal immigration, and arresting the illegal flow of drugs, especially “Fentanyl,” into the U.S. Therefore, any assistance provided by Canada or Mexico would lead to a reversal of those tariffs. Secondly, we stated the market’s opening would likely be the worst level of the day, so any “panic selling” of positions early in the morning would likely be a mistake.”

That same logic applies to China and every other country dependent on U.S. trade. Given that China depends on roughly $50 billion in annual trade (16.2% of total exports worldwide) to the U.S. for its economic growth, President Trump was correct in assuming he had a stronger hand in the negotiations.

With those tariffs vastly reduced, the risk of the recessionary impact from an excess “tax” on consumers is fading. However, even with the tariffs reversed, the economic data, while slowing, does not suggest that a recession risk is imminent.

A Recession-Proof Economy?

Doug Cass made a valid point this past week, asking if the “economy is now recession-proof.”

“Is the economy now recession-proof? Is this also now a syntax question as opposed to a practical question?

By a syntax question, this is what I mean. Recession is measured by reported GDP and reported employment. GDP is in part a function of reported inflation. If inflation is understated, GDP is overstated by the same amount. Employment includes jobs going to immigrants, second jobs, jobs created by the birth/death model, and jobs going to government employees that often have negative productivity and whose roles (regulatory and bureaucratic nonsense) end up harming the country and the economy, even though they help GDP in the short term.

The country thought we were in recession in the middle part of the Biden term. This includes very prominent financial minds and the average Joe. There is a reason the election went the way it did: “It’s the economy, stupid.” But, as measured by the official stats, there was no recession, and things were pretty good. Now, we are still not in recession, and as measured by the same stats, it still seems 50% likely we will not be in recession, and if we ever enter one, it feels like it might be mild, at least as measured by those same statistics.

So, is the economy now recession-proof? If we don’t go into a recession now, with the shaky foundation that was in place, including an overspent consumer, all the debt, global tensions, and all the uncertainty, it feels like we will never have a recession.”

It seems that way, but the one contributing factor that broke all pre-existing models was the flood of monetary and fiscal stimulus post the COVID pandemic. It may take us years to determine if the previous historical models and indicators, such as inverted yield curves, ever function as they did previously to gauge recession probabilities. Maybe they won’t.

However, as noted above, economists are rapidly reversing their predictions about the recession and now suggest that President Trump’s actions, while previously thought to be an economic disaster, might be beneficial. Furthermore, financial conditions are improving, which also supports economic activity. If that trend continues, particularly if the Fed resumes cutting interest rates, it should start to feed into consumer confidence. If consumer confidence strengthens, which would be logical following recent tariff resolutions, this should reduce recession probabilities further.

Understand the message here. As discussed two weeks ago, the economic growth rate is slowing, but recession probabilities remain low.

That does not mean that a recession is permanently avoided.

However, therein lies the problem with recession probabilities and predictions in the first place.

The Problem With Recession Predictions

It is wise to remember that in 2022, we had the most anticipated recession, which failed to occur and preceded one of the strongest bull markets in recent history.

The problem with predicting recessions is that economists always work off lagging economic data. Such is particularly the case with GDP, which is revised three times following the end of the quarter, 12 months, and 3 years later. Historically, given that lag, the timing of U.S. recessions can be off by 9 to 12 months before they are recognized by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The chart below shows the lag between the onset and recognition of previous U.S. recessions.

The following table better shows the lag between the start and recognition of previous U.S. recessions. I have also noted the impact on financial markets as investors reprice earnings growth for a reversal in economic growth rates.

Investors must decide whether the current correction is “just a correction” or whether the risk of a U.S. recession is increasing.

Currently, few indicators suggest recession probabilities are rising. The Economic Composite Index (a comprehensive measure of economic activity comprised of more than 100 data points) is in expansionary territory. The EOCI index confirms the improvement in the 6-month rate of change in the Leading Economic Index (LEI), one of the best recession indicators, and current levels of economic growth. While economic growth will undoubtedly slow as all of the excess governmental spending under the previous Administration reverses, there is currently no recession warning in the data. That does not mean that it can not change in the future. However, for now, the risk of recession is extremely low.

Adding to that analysis, the economically weighted ISM composite index is also in expansionary territory, suggesting no current risk of recession. This composite index (80% service / 20% manufacturing) is why we wrote that there was no recession risk in 2023 or 2024 despite inverted yield curves.

Lastly, Government spending remains robust, which fuels economic growth. While the current Administration is looking to cut spending and reduce the deficit, which would weaken economic growth rates, they are making very little headway.

Furthermore, despite the hopes that DOGE would cut Federal spending, it has only returned to the post-financial crisis exponential growth trend as the Government continues to use “Continuing Resolutions” to fund the Government. These resolutions automatically increase government spending by 8% annually. In other words, spending doubles every nine years, so debt levels continue to rise, feeding into economic growth rates.

Conclusion: Staying Grounded Amid Market Volatility

While recession probabilities have resurfaced in the headlines following the recent market sell-off, the economic data does not yet support the narrative of an imminent downturn.

As I discussed in “The Risk Of Recession Is Not Zero,” the government is currently engaged in activities that will impact economic growth. If those actions are combined with those of an already struggling consumer, the risk of recession will undoubtedly increase. Thus, economists are now scrambling to reverse their recession calls.

Historically, recession calls tend to be premature, often relying on lagging indicators that confirm economic contractions only well after they have begun. Current indicators point to a slower economic expansion, not contraction. Although growth is slowing, a slower growth environment does not equate to a recession—a distinction investors must keep in mind.

The more significant concern for markets is the inevitable impact of slowing economic growth on corporate earnings expectations. With analysts projecting continued double-digit earnings growth into 2026, there is an apparent disconnect between these forecasts and the economic reality. History suggests that earnings will eventually revert to levels that align with economic activity, which could lead to further bouts of market volatility.

For investors, the key takeaway is to stay informed, focus on fundamentals, and avoid being swayed by short-term noise. While volatility and corrections are natural in market cycles, history shows that panic-driven decisions often lead to missed opportunities. As long as economic indicators remain expansionary, the risk of a recession remains low, though careful monitoring is warranted. Investors should continue to assess their portfolios, manage risk prudently, and position themselves for a gradual slowdown rather than an economic collapse.

How We Are Trading It

As noted last week, we continue to manage our portfolios in a manner that allows us to participate in the market while still hedging against underlying risk. As such, we have started rebalancing risk as necessary and adjusting portfolio holdings to improve relative market performance. Notably, the breadth of the market has improved, but as noted above, the short-term overbought conditions suggest the “easy money” has been made. We will wait for corrections to reduce cash balances further and remove portfolio hedges entirely. That is, of course, unless some other unexpected event surfaces that substantially increases market risk.

As noted, while the risk of recession has fallen, recession probabilities are not zero. As we said in Friday’s Daily Market Commentary:

“However, patience will likely pay off here. As noted previously, we are still on a weekly sell signal, which has historically led to short-term market underperformance. As shown, previous periods of historical weekly moving average crossovers typically involve a more extended period of consolidation or corrective price actions. The main exception to that rule was 2020, when the Federal Reserve intervened with massive monetary support. With yields rising and the Fed on hold, no excess support is coming into the market other than a surge in corporate buybacks. However, those are due to decline starting next month.“

Continue to follow the rules and stick to your discipline. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/17/2025 - 11:40