Individual Economists

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.9% YoY

Calculated Risk -

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 29.2% YoY, but still down 21.1% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 25.9% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Nov. 16, 2024
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 25.9% above year-ago levels

For the 54th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. However, this week’s growth was smaller than last week’s, marking the eighth consecutive week of deceleration and the smallest annual increase since late March.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—climbed 3.5% this week compared with one year ago

The number of newly listed homes saw a slight uptick compared with the same week last year, offering a glimmer of hope for buyers seeking fresh inventory. However, the recent climb in mortgage rates might deter many potential sellers from entering the market, particularly those locked into lower rates who are hesitant to trade up to higher borrowing costs.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 54th consecutive week.  
However, inventory is still historically low.
New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Federal Police Accuse Jair Bolsonaro Of Plotting "Violent Overthrow" Of President Lula

Zero Hedge -

Federal Police Accuse Jair Bolsonaro Of Plotting "Violent Overthrow" Of President Lula

In a shocking development, but perhaps coming as no surprise to some (who have long warned "Brazil's Donald Trump" would be target of an avalanche of further political persecution from the left once out of office) Brazil's federal police on Thursday announced a formal call for the the indictment of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro over a 2022 "coup" plot.

Supposedly this involved an organized criminal network which Bolsonaro directed to prevent current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from taking office. The police allege Bolsonaro and 36 other officials and individuals plotted the "violent overthrow of the democratic state."

AFP: Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro was in office from 2019 to 2022.

"Federal police concluded on Thursday the investigation into the existence of a criminal organization that acted in a coordinated way in 2022 in an attempt to maintain the then-president in power," the statement said.

"The final report has been sent to the Supreme Court with the request that 37 individuals [including the ex-president] be indicted for the crimes of the violent overthrow of the democratic state, coup d'etat and criminal organization."

An initial social media statement from Bolsonaro responded simply, "The fight begins at the Attorney General's office." It's as yet unclear whether the attorney general will take up the case, which could bring at least 12 years in prison if the ex-president is convicted.

Bolsonaro has also said he's the victim of a state-backed "persecution" and that he's innocent of all allegations. Police allege the criminal conspiracy occurred in the last several months of Bolsonaro's 2019-2022 presidency.

Current reports have left open whether the plotting had anything to do with the later "insurrection" which rocked central government buildings Brasilia on January 8, 2023 - involving angry pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators breaking into the Congress building, the Supreme Court, and also storming the presidential palace. American and some international commentators had at the time characterized it as Bolsonaro's own "J6 riot".

Bolsonaro is already facing other more minor investigations and charges, including allegedly falsifying his Covid-19 vaccination record. This new allegation by the federal police is the most serious one yet.

The NY Times details that "The charges are the culmination of a sweeping two-year investigation in which police raided homes and offices, arrested senior aides to Mr. Bolsonaro and secured confessions and plea deals with people involved in the plot."

"The announcement comes two days after four members of an elite military unit, including a former top aide to Mr. Bolsonaro, were arrested and accused of planning to assassinate Mr. Lula shortly before he took office in January 2023," the report indicates further.

So ultimately, the police are claiming a direct assassination plot targeting Lula. Already Bolsonaro has been barred from running for office for eight years, after in June 2023 Brazil's highest electoral court says that he cannot run for or hold any public office until 2030. This means he'll have to sit out the 2026 election regardless of if these coup allegations stick.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 17:20

Will Democrats Finally Learn A Lesson?

Zero Hedge -

Will Democrats Finally Learn A Lesson?

Authored by Daniel Lipinski via RealClearPolitics,

Here we go again. Voters have elected Donald Trump president while giving Republicans majorities in the House and Senate. And once again, Democrats are asking themselves, “What do we do now?” When this occurred eight years ago, I was a Democrat serving in the House of Representatives. At that time, some of my colleagues who had seen many traditional Democrats in their district vote for Trump spoke out. They said that working-class voters were tired of feeling looked down upon by Democrats because of policies they supported, what they believed, or even who they were. So when Hillary Clinton was caught claiming that half of Trump’s supporters were a “basket of deplorables: racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic,” she was seen to be confirming this, helping to doom her campaign.

But instead of changing course, Democrats doubled down by embracing a more ardent progressivism and demanding that everyone follow. Primary challenges by progressives rose dramatically. My experience was emblematic. Working-class voters were my base because I focused on bread-and-butter issues critical to struggling families, and I was not supportive of progressive social issues. After surviving in 2018, I lost in 2020 to a progressive challenger bankrolled by millions from national groups. At the same time, candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 were stumbling over each other, trying to get further to the left on a variety of issues. Decriminalizing illegal border crossings, funding sex-change operations for prisoners and detained illegal immigrants, and defunding the police became party dogma, further alienating the working class.

Thanks to bumbling by President Trump and congressional Republicans, however, Democrats won the House in 2018 and captured the White House and both chambers of Congress in 2020.  Progressives felt vindicated and were emboldened to continue their agenda with a self-righteous swagger. President Biden, whose victory was made possible by a reputation he had built over five decades as a moderate deal-maker, foolishly embraced progressives to prepare to run for reelection in 2024. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, who won in a state that gave Clinton and Biden less than 30% of the vote, was hounded out of the party by progressives who should have been thankful for every vote he gave them.

In 2024, Republicans handed a massive in-kind gift to their opponents when they nominated the man most responsible for the Democratic Party’s election victories the past six years. Democrats were also given a unique opportunity to install a nominee who did not have to pander to progressives to win primaries. Perhaps the party had no other choice but Vice President Kamala Harris, who had taken some very progressive positions when running for the nomination in 2019. But with five long years having passed, she could have tried to make a clean and hard break from these. Instead, she chose to walk away from some of these positions softly, never seizing the opportunity to claim that a new working-class friendly perspective led her to change. Harris sealed her fate when she delivered a too-clever-by-half professorial response – “I’ll follow the law” – when asked whether she still supported taxpayer-funded sex-change operations for prisoners and detained illegal aliens. Donald Trump went on to become just the second Republican in 36 years to win the popular vote, thanks in part to significant support from non-white working-class voters, particularly Hispanics. 

As Democrats try to figure out what to do next, it is folly to believe that all the party needs is “clarity of message,” as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA) recently claimed. And while it is good to propose new policies directed at helping those left behind economically, as Rep. Ro Khanna (CA) did, it won’t solve the political problem. But buried in that post-election piece by Khanna was one sentence that gets much closer to what Democrats must do: “For our economic message to be heard, we must show common sense on issues of crime and the safety of families and not shame or cancel those who may have honest disagreements with us on a particular social issue.” Rep. Seth Moulton (MA) expressed a similar sentiment when he said, “We lost, in part, because we shame and belittle too many opinions held by too many voters, and that needs to stop.” 

While these are hopeful signs, Democrats must do more than pay lip service to change. After all, a few years ago, Khanna – who is now positioning for a presidential run – was publicly urging our Democratic House colleagues to cancel me from Congress because of honest issue disagreements. And last week, when Moulton dared to give a specific example of not wanting his daughters “getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete,” he was lambasted by multiple Democratic officials, including his state’s governor and one of his congressional colleagues. Nowhere did I see any Democrat have the courage to support Moulton’s commonsense concern or even defend him for being willing to raise an issue with significant public resonance.

Voters are not fools, especially working-class voters who continue to feel that the country is going in the wrong direction and that they always get the short end of the stick. They may not watch day-to-day politics closely, but they understand who and what the Democratic Party now seems to really value. Only time will tell if the party has finally learned a lesson.

Daniel Lipinski is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He represented the Third District of Illinois in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2005 to 2021.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 17:00

The List: Policy Actions To Save America From Globalism Before Time Runs Out

Zero Hedge -

The List: Policy Actions To Save America From Globalism Before Time Runs Out

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

It’s been a wild ride. After years of near total leftist control of every significant social and governmental institution in the US and abroad the American people have said enough is enough. The progressives have once again been slapped with the ultimate lesson of our era – Get Woke, Go Broke. This time they’re not just broke; they’re broken.

I don’t think I’ve seen such an electoral bloodbath in my lifetime (maybe the Reagan landslide in 1984, but I was only a child). The conservatives control the Oval Office, the Senate, the House and the Supreme Court. Regardless of what you might think of Trump, what’s important is that he ran his campaign on anti-woke and anti-globalism and the US population voted for that agenda en masse.

The American people want an end to the madness of the leftist/globalist regime. They want an end to establishment corruption. They want an end to US involvement in foreign conflicts. They want the woke indoctrination of their children to stop. They want an end to open borders. They want an end to perpetual debt spending and inflation. And, they want reassurance that events like the attempted covid coup against our constitutional liberties will never happen again.

Over the past several months I have been predicting a Trump election win based on the clear sociopolitical shift in popular sentiment. However, my concern has always been that Trump will not make good on his campaign promises, either because he is being thwarted by Neo-Cons within his own team or because he did not intend to follow through in the first place. We all saw what happened after 2016 – The status quo was mostly maintained.

To be fair, in 2016 Trump’s team was mostly chosen for him and that team was comprised of many snakes in the grass. This time around I have a bit more optimism. Trump’s coalition is significantly better than his first term and many of the people involved seem to be dedicated to their particular cause. If this is the case and Trump really means to change things for the better, I have a few ideas on how he can ensure that America never again deviates into the path of globalism.

Some of these actions have already been promoted by the Trump Administration in recent days, some of them have not. Obviously none of these changes are easy but they can be done with the proper enthusiasm and pressure from the American people applied to their representatives in the Senate and Congress. Here’s what we can do as a country to keep our society free and prosperous well into the future.

1) Recess Appointments For Cabinet

The first time Trump tried to appoint his cabinet the amount of Senate interference that took place caused delays of almost 4 months, and that was with appointees that represented no threat to the status quo. This time around it is clear that Neo-Cons within the Senate will work with Democrats to outright reject choices like RFK Jr and Matt Gaetz. They WILL try to sabotage any nominee that presents a legitimate threat to the establishment order.

With this is mind, and per the Constitution, Trump has the option to call a recess of the Senate and make his appointments while they are away and without their approval. There is also a little known rule that allows him to force Congress to adjourn. Candidates for the Senate majority leader position all agreed to support recess appointments before they were voted on, which means there should not be any interference to a call of recess from Trump. Multiple presidents have used this emergency option to fill their cabinets.

2) Federal Voter ID Law

It’s seems like a no-brainer. Every state (except one) that the Democrats won in the 2024 election was a state with no voter ID laws. That’s not a coincidence. Correlation is not always causation, but it’s highly suspicious none-the-less. Many developed nations around the world have strict ID laws when it comes to elections. Why do we not have them in the US?

With the advent of electronic ballots and large scale mail in ballots, a voter ID requirement is more important than ever to prevent election fraud. One of Trump’s top concerns after entering office in 2025 is to pass a federal voter ID requirement for all future elections. This cannot be left to flounder for years, it must be done by 2026.

3) Total Border Control And Mass Deportation – The Details

One of the key agendas of globalism is the forced establishment of open borders in the western world, along with mass migrations of third-world aliens cor cultural saturation and replacement. The goal is to destroy the west from within and then replace it with am economically Marxist and morally ambiguous civilization. Stopping this scheme will require aggressively enforced border laws and deportation laws. This requires multiple steps…

Immediately Establish Texas-Style Border Controls

Despite constant interference from the Biden Administration, the state of Texas and governor Greg Abbott have been incredibly effective in stopping illegal border crossings using expanded patrols and razor wire barriers. Encounters with illegals on the Texas border have dropped by 86% through Operation Lone Star in the span of a year. That’s impressive. Texas methods should be used across the entire border.

Increased Fines Against Companies Hiring Illegal Immigrants

This is a strategy being used by some European nations and it makes sense; a lot of illegals jump the border because they know there’s under the table jobs waiting for them. Trump must make it financially untenable for companies to hire migrants without proper work visas, and greatly increasing fines is the best way to do this.

100% Tariffs On Mexico Until They Secure Their Own Borders

The Mexican government is absolutely corrupt and often uses the US border as a pressure valve to get rid of their poor and their criminals. Instead of fixing the problems within their own country they export those problems to America. This needs to stop.

End All Asylum Requests From Third World Countries

Until the immigration problem is solved the asylum loophole needs to be closed. Save for a few citizens from countries where very real asylum protections are needed (like oppressed dissidents from China or North Korea), there’s no need to take in most of these people and their asylum claims are fraudulent.

Increase Efficiency Of Immigrant Worker Visa Program

Democrats often argue that America cannot survive without migrant workers. I say this is a lie designed to prevent legitimate immigration reform, but if there really is work that needs to be done in our country and migrants are somehow the only people that can do it, then we can have both.

If Trump streamlines the work visa program to speed up the process while vetting applicants, then we can have controlled borders AND migrant workers. To pay for increased efficiency of the program, double the application fee and reduce their legal work period in the US to 1 year or less.

Mass Deportations Of Illegals

This was a key plank of the Trump campaign and it looks like he plans to make it happen. Starting with ALL the migrants that entered the US illegally in the past four years and all those relocated through Biden’s shady visa program. This can be achieved by cutting off existing subsidies to migrants, fines for companies that hire illegals, citizenship verification for home buying or home rentals, ending federal subsidies to Democrat sanctuary cities, etc. Ultimately, most illegals will leave the country on their own.

4) Shut Down Globalist NGOs

Globalist NGOs are the primary source of corruption within the US government and our society at large. NGO’s have all the rights of individual citizens with none of the limitations. They can generate billions of dollars for influence campaigns. They can lobby politicians (bribe them) to get legislation put in place. They can use their incredible financial resources to fund activist movements and create civil unrest from thin air. And, they can even fund programs to control education and encourage mass illegal immigration.

NGOs should be banned from lobbying. And, any NGO’s caught engaging in the funding of woke propaganda in schools, violent activist groups or illegal immigration efforts should be immediately shut down. Some NGOs feed on government funding (like George Soros’ Open Society Foundation) while others are privately funded (like the Ford Foundation). If they are receiving subsidies, that money should be cut off. Stopping the operations of globalist NGOs is imperative to saving western civilization.

5) Immediate Peace Negotiations On Ukraine

Here’s the bottom line – Ukraine is losing the war against Russia. Their eastern front is collapsing due to attrition and in another year or less Russia WILL take the entire country. The war is also being managed by proxy by NATO. We are swiftly plunging into open conflict between the east and the west. This must stop. Even if the situation doesn’t go nuclear, a world war at this time would cause a catastrophic economic collapse, for the US, for Europe and most of the East. Only the globalists want this to happen.

Ukraine is an irrelevant territory not worth fighting over. Americans don’t want to fight over it. Europeans don’t want to fight over it and I doubt the average Russian wants to fight over it. Vladimir Zelensky must be forced to accept the loss of the Donbas to Russia. A DMZ must be established and the fighting must end for the sake of the world.

6) Investigate Covid Corruption

There should be an in-depth investigation into the Biden Administration’s handling of the Covid mandates, including the attempted censorship of information contrary to the government narrative. There should be a real investigation into the viral laboratories in Wuhan, China and Anthony Fauci’s involvement with those labs to develop coronaviruses using gain of function research. Americans want answers.

7) National Ban On CBDCs And The Cashless Economy

In tandem with open borders, globalists at the IMF and BIS have been quietly building a massive global central bank digital currency framework (CBDCs). The erasure of nationally controlled economies and currencies would be required in order to create a globally centralized economy with a single world currency. And, in order to force populations to accept such a system, the globalists need CBDCs.

With a cashless economy in place, elites within governments and central banks would have ultimate power to socially engineer public behavior. If they can take away your money any time they please, it’s much harder to rebel against them. If they can program caveats into CBDCs to prevent spending on certain goods (like meat or gas, for example) then they can pressure the populace into accepting carbon controls and other draconian measures. CBDCs are the end of freedom as we know it.

8) Economic Stop-Gap Plan

I have outlined options for preventing a total economic collapse in previous articles, so I won’t go in-depth here. I will quickly list some of the most important measures that could be taken to revitalize the struggling system. Many of them are designed to bypass the Federal Reserve.

  • End The Income Tax For 99% Of The Population – Tax The 1%

  • End Property Taxes On Single Family Homes – Only Tax Owners With Multiple Properties

  • Remove All Illegal Immigrants From The US – This Will Trigger A Drop In Property Prices And Rent

  • Create Subsidy Incentives For Married Couples With Children – Home Loans, Education

  • Bring Back Technical Apprenticeship Programs – Increase Technical Workers Without College

  • Use Tariffs, But Also Backstop Tariffs With Domestic Production – Focus On High Quality Goods

  • Domestically Manufacture High Quality Goods With Long Life To Help Fight Inflation

  • Issue A Gold/Silver Backed Treasury Bond – Offer Metals Backed Savings Accounts

  • Institute A Moratorium On Debt Ceiling Increases Until Government Deficit Spending And Debt Are Under Control

There’s a lot of work that needs to be done to save the economy in the long run but the options above could help to boost the American worker and consumer and stall a breakdown. Currently, the US faces the highest national debt, the highest interest payments and the highest consumer debt in the nation’s history. We are also still in the middle of a stagflationary crisis. Something dramatic must be done soon, before it’s too late.

Bonus Policy: Institute A Mandatory IQ Test And Mental Acuity Test For All Political Candidates And Leaders

It’s hard to test a person for moral compass but you can at least test intelligence. A candidate should not be prevented from running for office because of low IQ, but I believe the public has a right to know who they’re voting for. If they decide they don’t want a low IQ leader, then that should be up to them.

By extension, independent mental acuity testing should be a regular occurrence. As we saw with Joe Biden, the establishment will happily hide the mental decline of a politician if it serves their interests. The people have a right to know.

No doubt hundreds of other policy ideas could be added to the list above, but these actions are a solid start.  If Trump instituted even half of these solutions the US could be saved from perhaps the worst existential crisis in the nation’s history and globalism would be on the ropes.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 16:20

Mega-Caps Mullered As Bitcoin, Bullion, & 'Big Shorts' Burst Higher

Zero Hedge -

Mega-Caps Mullered As Bitcoin, Bullion, & 'Big Shorts' Burst Higher

Of course, as goes NVDA, so goes the market, and after last night's beat (but disappointing revenue forecast), the giantest of giant tech companies swung around like a penny stock, adding and subtracting $100s of billions in market cap in an instant...

Bear in mind that the vol market had pegged an 8% swing -  Jensen's comments helped rescue the stock: "I believe that there will be no digestion until we modernize a trillion dollars with the data centers."

Interestingly, while NVDA managed to hold on to gains, the Mega-Cap tech basket was hit hard and could not bounce back to green...

Source: Bloomberg

... as GOOGL was clubbed like a baby seal...

Source: Bloomberg

All the major indices ended the day green (though Nasdaq lagged), as Small Caps ripped...

...thanks to a huge short squeeze (again)...

Source: Bloomberg

On the macro side, it was 'bad news':  Philly Fed fell hard in November (from +10.3 to -5.5 vs +8.0 exp), Continuing Jobless claims topped 1.9mm Americans for the first time in three years (initial claims dropped), and the Leading Index dropped 0.4% (more than expected). Initial claims and existing home sales were positive to offset some of the negative but overall, the US Macro Surprise index actually rolled over...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were marginally higher on the day with the short-end lagging (2Y +3bps, 30Y +1bps). That pulled the short-end higher on the week, while the belly is outperforming on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations continued to slide with less than three full 25bp cuts now priced-in by the end of 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

As bond yields rose, so did oil prices with WTI holding back above $70...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied back up near post-election highs...

Source: Bloomberg

But, the big news of the day was in 'alternate' currencies with bitcoin continuing to charge higher (topping $99k) as Gensler announced his retirement and Trump's crypto council takes shape...

Source: Bloomberg

...and Gold also soared back above its 50DMA...

Source: Bloomberg

...up for the 4th straight day after 6 straight down following the election...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, Bitcoin finally took out its record high relative to gold...

Source: Bloomberg

Do you feel lucky?

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 16:00

Vail Resorts At Four-Year Low Despite "Strong" Winter Trends 

Zero Hedge -

Vail Resorts At Four-Year Low Despite "Strong" Winter Trends 

Vail Resorts, the world's largest ski resort operator—including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 additional resorts across North America—has entered a seasonally favorable period for share price appreciation. Additionally, cooler and snowier weather trends are supporting resort openings as the ski season gets underway.

Let's begin with the latest note from Barclays' Brandt Montour, who provided clients with new details about the "US Ski Weather" at Vail's resorts.

"Latest snow depth in key Western US resorts (in aggregate) is higher this year versus its historical average," Montour said, adding, "Average temperatures have been colder than usual, with a greater number of days below freezing (<=32°F), in aggregate." 

The analyst said, "Early season snowfall in key western N.A. regions has generally been strong in November." 

Meanwhile, Montour noted, "The East hasn't received any snow yet this season, which isn't surprising or atypical. However, these resorts opened in mid to late November last year, and we believe MTN is targeting similar opening dates for that region this year (tickets have been on sale at select East Coast resorts for as early as November 22)."

The latest projected openings of Vail Resorts.

Snowfall trends.

Weather models show cooling is in place across the Lower 48 through early December. This is one reason why NatGas prices have soared in recent sessions. 

Private weather forecast BAMWX stated on X, "On this note, I suspect the fail of La Niña is playing a major role in preventing the Eastern/SE ridge that has been so dominant to be prevalent. Stretched polar vortex also setting up in the right spot is a big key too. Fun pattern for Winter lovers approaching."

"Confidence increasing of a VERY cold pattern developing to end November and start December. Both the EPS/GEFS is support of a widespread notably below normal pattern for much of the US. You won't find a much better upper-level pattern with ridging near Greenland and the N. Pac," BAMWX noted in a separate X post. 

Plus, there are major snow threats across the Mid-Alantic and Northeast to the end of the week. 

Favorable weather for Vail Resorts comes with shares trading at a four-year low...

Seasonally, shares generally appreciate in November.

Vail Resorts is a potential bottom watch if cooler trends hold. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 15:45

Obama's Ukraine Cover Up

Zero Hedge -

Obama's Ukraine Cover Up

Authored by Jeff Carlson & Hans Mahncke via Truth Over News,

Last week we wrote about the central role Obama played in establishing the Russiagate Hoax. This week we’re going to take a closer look at why Obama was so involved. What drove him to push a hoax that had been ostensibly put into place by the Clinton campaign? 

Many are aware of Biden’s entanglements in Ukraine but most are unaware of Obama’s implicit involvement. For some time now it's been our working theory that Russiagate originated, at least in part, as the result of what Joe Biden was doing in Ukraine - and as a result of Obama’s knowledge of Biden’s actions.

Recall that Biden’s involvement in Ukraine traces back to at least early 2014 when he was pulled into the U.S. overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically-held elections by Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs in the Obama State Department.

In November 2013, Ukraine’s president Yanukovych turned down a U.S.-backed trade deal with the European Union in favor of an emergency bailout from Russia, a decision which was understandable from Ukraine’s perspective but one which Nuland and her state department colleagues found deeply upsetting.

When the European Union pursued a diplomatic route at resolving the impasse by proposing a power sharing agreement, Nuland was quick to veto the idea, telling Pyatt in a leaked phone call, “[expletive] the EU.” During that same call, Nuland discussed her plans for the ouster of Yanukovych and the installation of opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk as prime minister.

Towards the end of their conversation, Nuland noted that Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan had informed her that “you need Biden,” and she concluded by telling Pyatt that “Biden’s willing.”

Biden was effectively appointed as the Obama administration’s point man on Ukraine in February 2014. On Feb. 22, 2014, just as Nuland had planned, Yanukovych was removed as president of Ukraine and, three days later, Yatsenyuk, the candidate favored by Nuland, was installed as prime minister.

In other words, the U.S. government had effectively enabled a coup that ousted a democratically elected leader and replaced him with their own candidate. The US-led ouster of Yanukovich also had other internal repercussions, most notably the outbreak of an eight-year civil war between western Ukraine and the Russian-speaking Donbass region of Ukraine.

The idea that any of this could have been done without the direct approval from Obama, is of course, ridiculous.

One of the members of Yanukovych’s government who lost his position in government as a result of the coup was Mykola Zlochevsky, the Oligarch owner of Burisma Energy. He had first served as minister of ecology and natural resources and later as deputy secretary for economic and social security. During his tenure in government, Zlochevsky’s companies, particularly Burisma, reportedly received an unusually large number of permits to extract oil and gas.

In April 2014, UK prosecutors seized $23.5 million in assets owned by Zlochevsky that were held at a London bank, alleging that Zlochevsky had engaged in criminal conduct in Ukraine. It was at this same time that Burisma appointed Biden’s son, Hunter, and his close associate, Devin Archer to its board of directors.

On April 21, 2014, Joe Biden traveled to Ukraine, offering not only his political support, but also $50 million in aid for Ukraine’s shaky new government. During Joe’s Ukraine visit, on April 22, it was announced that Archer had suddenly joined the board of Burisma.

Hunter had also joined Burisma’s board that same month, but curiously Burisma didn’t announce Hunter’s appointment until May 12, 2014—after his father’s visit to Ukraine had concluded.

Many have portrayed Hunter’s involvement as little more than a means for the Biden family to extract hefty board fees from Burisma for association with the Biden name. While there is likely a large amount of truth to this, we also suspect something bigger may have been at play—the effective capture of Ukraine’s natural gas assets.

In a June 23, 2014 proposal from Boies Schiller, the law firm that employed Hunter, Burisma was provided with what Boies Schiller termed a “Strategic Outline for Legal Defense Plan.” Their proposal stated that they wanted to “Insulate Burisma from politically motivated disruptions in operations, including legal challenges to licenses, now and in the future.” 

The proposal from Boies Schiller was referring to the natural gas licenses that had been illegally accumulated by Zlochevsky during his time in the Ukrainian government.

As part of this strategy, Boies wanted to “Meet with the U.S. officials in Washington, DC who are leading U.S. policy related to Ukraine to brief them on who Burisma is, its significance to the future of Ukraine, and the Investigation in order to seek their advice and assistance.”

The proposal noted that “we are starting the process of creating an echo-chamber of U.S. officials discussing Burisma between and amongst themselves and encouraging each other to meet with Burisma.” Boies disclosed in their proposal that they had already spoken to a number of congressional members and their staff, including Senator Chris Murphy and his chief of staff.

Amos Hochstein, Obama’s U.S. Special Envoy for International Energy, was also mentioned in the Boies proposal - which focused on establishing a meeting between Hochstein and Burisma’s CFO Vadym Pozharskyi in the coming month of July 2014. It appears that meeting never happened - although Hochstein did meet with Burisma lobbyist David Leiter and Boies law partner Heather King. 

Meanwhile, efforts by Hunter continued. In a November 2014 email, Hunter told his long-time money-man Eric Schwerin to "Pls send D Amos' contact info… Amos is 'Acting Special Envoy, Bureau of energy Resources' at State."

What is clear from these documents is that Hunter and Archer were working to bring in high-level political support for Burisma from members of Congress and officials in the Obama administration at a time when it was very clear that Burisma was run by a corrupt Ukrainian Oligarch. And all of that support appeared to be centering around protecting the natural gas assets of Burisma.

We’ve written a number of times on Joe Biden’s efforts to get Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin removed so we won’t rehash that entire story here. But it’s worth noting that it may have been around the sequence of events leading to Shokin’s firing that Obama may have become alarmed.

The level of involvement from Obama officials would only accelerate in 2015 after the Bidens were further pulled into the legal entanglements of Burisma, which was under ongoing investigations into the theft of Ukraine’s natural gas assets. 

After receiving a new demand for help in ending the investigations into Burisma from Zlochevsky on November 2, 2015, Hunter immediately reached out to the previously-mentioned Hochstein. Hunter would meet in-person with Hochstein four days later, on November 6, 2015. Hochstein later reluctantly (and evasively) told congressional investigators that Hunter “wanted to know my views on Burisma and Zlochevsky.”

Hochstein, who was Obama’s U.S. Special Envoy for International Energy at the time, privately expressed his concerns about Hunter’s role at Burisma to Joe Biden in October 2015 and again during a flight to Ukraine on December 7, 2015. 

We’ve mentioned Hochstein a number of times for a reason. Hochstein had been appointed by Obama to “help Ukraine, and other European countries, find new supplies of natural gas after Russia invaded” Crimea in 2014. Hochstein “also worked on energy issues related to sanctions on Iran and Russia” and “worked closely with officials at the White House's National Security Council and government agencies.”

Hochstein was Obama’s point man on the energy situation in Ukraine. If Hochstein knew everything the Biden’s were doing, so did Obama.

More proof of this comes from a series of meetings between prosecutors from Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and officials from Obama’s National Security Council, the FBI, the State Department, and the DOJ that took place in January 2016. The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington later “confirmed the Obama administration requested the meetings.”

Present at these January 2016 meetings was Andrii Telizhenko, then an employee at the Ukrainian embassy. According to Telizhenko, a recurring theme at these meetings was “how important it was that all of our anti-corruption efforts be united.” Additionally, Telizhenko was told that U.S. officials “had an interest in reviving a closed investigation into payments to U.S. figures from Ukraine’s Russia-backed Party of Regions.”

The focus of US officials was almost certainly Trump’s future Campaign Manager Paul Manafort. We know that “Agents interviewed Manafort in 2014 about whether he received undeclared payments” and “whether he engaged in improper foreign lobbying in Ukraine.” 

According to Telizhenko “DOJ officials asked investigators from Ukraine’s NABU if they could help locate new evidence about the Party of Regions’ payments and its dealings with Americans.” Trump’s soon-to-be campaign manager, Paul Manafort, would later be implicated in the Party of Regions payments, leading to his ultimate removal from the Trump Campaign. 

In January 2016, right at the time of the NABU’s meeting with Obama’s officials, Alexandra Chalupa, who had been investigating Manafort’s work in Ukraine, informed an unknown senior DNC official that she believed there was a Russian connection with the Trump campaign.

This theme would be picked up by the Clinton campaign and the Intelligence Community in the summer of 2016. Chalupa also told the official to expect Manafort’s involvement in the Trump campaign. How Chalupa knew this in advance has never been fully explained.

NABU was established in October 2014 with assistance from the US government - led by a big push from vice-president Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland. In January 2016, NABU director Artem Sytnyk announced that his bureau was close to signing a Memorandum of cooperation with the FBI and by February 9th, the FBI had had a permanent representative onsite at the NABU offices.

One week after the first FBI representative was installed at NABU, on February 18, 2016 - while Joe Biden was actively pushing for Shokin’s removal - authorities in Latvia flagged a series of ‘suspicious’ financial transactions linked to Hunter Biden, Devon Archer and two other unknown individuals involved with Burisma.

It was later reported that “a series of loan payments totaling about $16.6 million that were routed from companies in Belize and the United Kingdom to Burisma through Ukraine’s PrivatBank between 2012 and 2015.” Latvian officials claimed that a portion of these funds were transferred to Hunter, Devon and the two unnamed individuals - one of whom was a US citizen.

Despite requests for assistance, a Latvian official said his government received no criminal evidence from Ukraine and thus took no further action on the investigation. It seems implausible to us that the FBI, with its active presence within Ukraine’s anti-corruption offices, was not aware of these transactions - along with everything else the Bidens were doing.

From the perspective of Obama and Biden, this situation with Latvian authorities needed to be fully contained before it exploded. Indeed, Shokin later said that it was this information that “made it impossible” to shut down his investigation of Burisma. 

Once Biden succeeded in getting Shokin officially fired on March 29, 2016, there was a new focus and a new directive for Biden—finding the proper replacement for Shokin. Despite Shokin's removal, the Burisma investigation was still technically open.

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko appointed Yuriy Sevruk as Shokin's replacement the same day as Shokin's firing. At this same time, Blue Star (hired by Burisma at Hunter's urging) began vetting Sevruk. It appears that Blue Star decided that Sevruk wasn’t the right person to wrap up all the investigations into Burisma. 

We know this because on May 12, 2016, Former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko was suddenly appointed as Ukraine’s new prosecutor general - replacing Sevruk. The day after Lutsenko was appointed, Biden finally freed up the $1 billion funding to Ukraine that had been originally slated for November 2014 during a call with Poroshenko.

This unexplained delay in funding is important because the Obama White House had been deeply involved in the funding of Ukraine from the very start. It seems totally implausible that Biden could simply delay $1 billion in funding that had been approved by Obama’s White House six months earlier without Obama’s sign off.

On May 27, 2016, there was another call between Biden and Poroshenko (Hunter was inexplicably cc'd on the scheduling email). Three days later, on May 30, 2016, Lutsenko fired Sevruk. There was now an entirely new team at the prosecutor's office. 

Not so coincidentally, it was on this same day that groundwork for attacks on the Trump campaign really began. Fusion GPS’s Nellie Ohr, wife of DOJ official Bruce Ohr, sent an email to Bruce and three other DOJ officials disclosing the existence of the Ukraine Black Box that was later used to target Paul Manafort. No one outside of Ukraine knew of the Black Box - or Black Ledger as it was later known.

Once Biden had finally sorted out the prosecutor situation in Ukraine, he needed to make sure his actions stayed hidden from public inquiry. All the more so because any serious investigation might ultimately shift towards Obama. Which made the ascending Trump Campaign a clear and present threat to Obama.

Obama and Biden couldn't afford to have Trump poking around Ukraine as the new president. This helps to explain the sudden targeting of the Trump campaign in late spring 2016—just as Biden put the finishing touches on Shokin’s firing. This also explains the explosion of attacks on Trump once he became president. 

As we moved further into Trump’s presidency, it also explains the ferocious response from the DNC when Trump started to ask questions regarding Biden’s actions in Ukraine. If Trump was allowed to continue, he would have discovered all of the Biden misdeeds, Obama’s knowledge of everything, and perhaps other misdeeds from the others among the larger DC Establishment as well.

Everything circles back to Ukraine. And Obama.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 15:25

Russia Says It's Ready For Any "Realistic" Ukraine Peace Plan As ICBMs Fly

Zero Hedge -

Russia Says It's Ready For Any "Realistic" Ukraine Peace Plan As ICBMs Fly

After Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) went airborne Thursday for the first time of the war, reportedly targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the Kremlin is emphasizing that it is still open to peace - amid this week's fresh wave of hugely escalatory policies issued from the US and UK (namely, greenlighting long-range attacks on Russian territory with West-supplied missiles).

A senior Ukrainian military official earlier told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called "RS-26 Rubezh" that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital. In the wake of this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a press briefing that Russia is still ready to consider any "realistic" peace initiative on the conflict in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Ministry Press Office/TASS

She said a realistic plan takes into account Russia's own interests and the situation on the ground. "We are open to negotiations, we are ready to consider any realistic, non-politicized initiative – of course," Zakharova said.

"I would like to emphasize once again: the key word is taking into account the interests of our country, the current situation on ground and guarantees of compliance with relevant agreements," she reiterated.

President Putin has previously indicated that a realistic solution would hinge on nothing less than Ukraine giving up all aspirations to join NATO as well as the ceding of the four territories in the east and south, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Ukrainian officials have throughout the war spoken as if the ceding of the eastern territories is a non-starter. However, Zelensky views Trump's plan to jump-start peace negotiations as authentic.

"I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision" to end the war, Zelensky told a European summit earlier this month, but followed with: "It doesn't mean that it will happen this way."

"He [Trump] wants this war to be finished," Zelensky continued, but then described hasty resolution "is going to be a loss for Ukraine."

There's currently much speculation over why the Biden administration seems bent on hastening WW3 with only two months left in office. Is this about building rapid leverage for Kiev before Trump enters? Is the White House trying to thwart Trump's plans for peace? 

Putin might take the path of restraint and patience until Trump enters the Oval, keeping available options open - though it's clear that things are escalating fast. The conflict grows more unpredictable by the day, given the injection of Western long-range missile systems.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 15:05

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Year-over-year in October

Calculated Risk -

From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Serious delinquencies hit 17-month high while foreclosure activity remains historically muted
• At 3.45% in October, the national delinquency rate was up 6% from the same time last year, marking five consecutive months of year-over-year increases

• While 30- & 60-day delinquencies decreased from September, seriously past due loans (90+ days) continued their slow rise, now up 7.3% from last year and at the highest level since May 2023

• Though both foreclosure starts (+12.2%) and completions (+10.1%) were up in October, both remain down from last year (-12.3% and -9.5%, respectively) and well below pre-pandemic levels

• Likewise, foreclosure inventory was up a modest +1K in the month, but there are 28K fewer loans in active foreclosure than there were at this same time last year

• Prepayment activity rose on easing interest rates to a level not seen in over two years (May 2022) and nearly double where it was last October
emphasis added
Mortgage Delinquency RateClick on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

US Bitcoin ETF Assets Break Above $100 Billion

Zero Hedge -

US Bitcoin ETF Assets Break Above $100 Billion

Authored by Alex O'Donnell via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds now collectively manage approximately $104 billion, and are on track to surpass gold ETFs in net assets.

United States Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) broke $100 billion in net assets for the first time on Nov. 21, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Bitcoin has dominated the ETF landscape since spot BTC ETFs launched in January. Investor interest accelerated after crypto-friendly President-elect Donald Trump prevailed on Nov. 5 in the US elections.

Collectively, BTC ETFs now manage approximately $104 billion. They are on track to surpass gold ETFs in net assets, which together hold approximately $120 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of Nov. 21, according to Bitcoin Archive.

Bitcoin ETFs are “now 97% of way to passing Satoshi as biggest holder and 82% of way to passing gold ETFs,” Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a Nov. 21 post on the X platform.

Source: Bitcoin Archive

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leads the pack, pulling $30 billion in net inflows since January, according to Bloomberg data.

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) has been the second most popular BTC ETF, seeing inflows of more than $11 billion so far this year, per Bloomberg.

The crypto market surged following Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, as many believe his win will benefit the industry, Cointelegraph Research said.

Spot BTC traded at more than $96,000 as of Nov. 21, up nearly 120% since the start of 2024, according to Google Finance data.

Nov. 6 was IBIT’s “biggest volume day ever” as investors flocked to cryptocurrencies after Trump’s election win, Balchunas said in a Nov. 6 X post.

On Nov. 7, IBIT clocked $1.1 billion in inflows, reclaiming inflow status after two consecutive days of outflows totaling $113.3 million, according to Farside data.

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

BTC is expected to top somewhere between $100,000 and $150,000 per coin, MV Global said.

BlackRock’s IBIT now holds more assets than the asset manager’s gold ETF despite only launching in January, data from BlackRock shows.

Investors are turning toward gold and BTC in a so-called “debasement trade” as they brace for a “catastrophic scenario” amid rising geopolitical tensions, according to an Oct. 3 report by JPMorgan.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 14:05

As Biden Escalates, Half Of Ukrainians Want Negotiated End To War - ASAP

Zero Hedge -

As Biden Escalates, Half Of Ukrainians Want Negotiated End To War - ASAP

With the Russian army relentlessly seizing more territory while mounting casualties, power outages, and aggressive conscription tactics make life miserable for everyone, half of Ukrainians have had enough: They now want their government to pursue a deal that ends the war as soon as possible.  

According to the latest Gallup polls, 52% of Ukrainians agreed with the statement "Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible."  That's substantially more than the 38% who said the country should "continue fighting until it wins the war." These are huge shifts in sentiment from polls taken in 2022. Then, 73% of Ukrainians were gung-ho about fighting to victory, while only 22% were eager for a speedy, negotiated end to the conflict. 

Of those who want a negotiated end to the war, 52% say Ukraine should be willing to make territorial concessions; 38% disagreed. Meanwhile, among the "keep-fighting" crowd, the definition of victory is starting to bend to realities on the ground. Last year, 93% of them defined victory as Ukraine regaining all territory, even Crimea. That's now dropped to 81%.   

In a sign that fewer Ukrainians view the United States government as part of the solution, more Ukrainians think the European Union and the United Kingdom should play "a significant role" in peace negotiations than the United States. The poll was taken in October; at the time, more Ukrainians wanted a potential Kamala Harris administration to play a significant role than a Donald Trump one. 

The important new read on sentiment inside Ukraine comes days after President Biden gave the green light for a major escalation of the war, by authorizing Ukraine to use the long-range, US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System to strike deeper into Russian territory. Ukraine quickly put its new permission to work, striking a Russian military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region -- about 71 miles from the Ukraine border. 

Biden's policy change prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to threaten a "symmetrical" response, enabling strikes against the United States by third parties: 

“If someone considers it possible to supply such weapons to a combat zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why do we not have the right to supply our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world from which the strikes will be carried out on sensitive objects of those countries that do this in relation to Russia? That is, the answer may be symmetrical. We will think about it.”

On Tuesday, Putin signed off on an update to Russia's nuclear weapons policy. Under the revised doctrine, a conventional attack on Russia that is enabled by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack by the two actors. More chillingly, Russia will now consider nuclear retaliation for conventional attacks by a nuclear power.

Since Ukraine is constantly -- if dubiously -- touted as an exemplary democracy, let's hope its government yields to its citizens' growing desire for peace before it's too late for all of us. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 13:45

The Officer Who Killed Ashli Babbitt Had Long History Of Disciplinary & Training Problems; Report

Zero Hedge -

The Officer Who Killed Ashli Babbitt Had Long History Of Disciplinary & Training Problems; Report

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

I have previously written about the dubious investigations of the shooting of Ashli Babbitt on Jan. 6th and the alleged violation of the standards for the use of lethal force by the officer who shot her. strongly disagreed with the findings of investigations by the Capitol Police and the Justice Department in clearing Captain Michael Byrd, who shot the unarmed protester. Now, Just the News has an alarming report of the record of Byrd that only magnifies these concerns.

Liberal politicians and pundits often refer to multiple deaths from the Jan. 6th riot. In reality, only one person died that day, and that was Babbitt, who was shot while trying to climb through a window.

However, the media lionized Byrd and portrayed the killing of the unarmed Babbitt as clearly justified. That is in sharp contrast to the approach that the media has taken in other shootings by law enforcement.

An unjustified killing by police on that day was inconsistent with the public narrative pushed by the pundits and the press.

As I have previously written, what occurred on Jan. 6th was a disgrace. However, it was a riot, not an insurrection. (It was certainly not an act of terrorism as claimed by some Democratic politicians). A protest at the Capitol resulted in a complete breakdown of the inadequate security precautions, a failure that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately admitted but only recently was disclosed.

The failure of Pelosi and others to properly prepare for the protest, despite the offer of President Donald Trump of 10,000 National Guard troops, does not excuse the conduct of the rioters who attacked the Capitol, interrupted the constitutional process, and committed property damage.

Babbitt was one of those rioters. She was wrong in her actions, but the penalty for breaking a window and unauthorized entry is not death in this country. I previously spoke with her mother, Micki Witthoeft, and her husband, Aaron Babbitt, about their continuing effort to expose what occurred that day.

The new report confirms what many of us had previously heard about the Byrd controversy.

Babbitt, 35, was an Air Force veteran and Trump supporter who participated in the riot three years ago. She was clearly committing criminal acts of trespass, property damage, and other offenses.  However, the question is whether an officer is justified in shooting a protester when he admits that he did not see any weapon before discharging his weapon.

Just to recap what we previously discussed in the earlier column:

When protesters rushed to the House chamber, police barricaded the chamber’s doors; Capitol Police were on both sides, with officers standing directly behind Babbitt. Babbitt and others began to force their way through, and Babbitt started to climb through a broken window. That is when Byrd killed her.

At the time, some of us familiar with the rules governing police use of force raised concerns over the shooting. Those concerns were heightened by the DOJ’s bizarre review and report, which stated the governing standards but then seemed to brush them aside to clear Byrd.

The DOJ report did not read like any post-shooting review I have read as a criminal defense attorney or law professor. The DOJ statement notably does not say that the shooting was justified. Instead, it stressed that “prosecutors would have to prove not only that the officer used force that was constitutionally unreasonable, but that the officer did so ‘willfully.’” It seemed simply to shrug and say that the DOJ did not believe it could prove “a bad purpose to disregard the law” and that “evidence that an officer acted out of fear, mistake, panic, misperception, negligence, or even poor judgment cannot establish the high level of intent.”

While the Supreme Court, in cases such as Graham v. Connor, has said that courts must consider “the facts and circumstances of each particular case,” it has emphasized that lethal force must be used only against someone who is “an immediate threat to the safety of the officers or others, and … is actively resisting arrest or attempting to evade arrest by flight.” Particularly with armed assailants, the standard governing “imminent harm” recognizes that these decisions must often be made in the most chaotic and brief encounters.

Under these standards, police officers should not shoot unarmed suspects or rioters without a clear threat to themselves or fellow officers. That even applies to armed suspects who fail to obey orders. Indeed, Huntsville police officer William “Ben” Darby was convicted of killing a suicidal man holding a gun to his head. Despite being cleared by a police review board, Darby was prosecuted, found guilty, and sentenced to 25 years in prison, even though Darby said he feared for the safety of himself and fellow officers. Yet law professors and experts who have praised such prosecutions in the past have been conspicuously silent over the shooting of an unarmed woman who had officers in front of and behind her on Jan. 6.

Byrd went public soon after the Capitol Police declared that “no further action will be taken” in the case. He then demolished the two official reviews that cleared him.

Byrd described how he was “trapped” with other officers as “the chants got louder” with what “sounded like hundreds of people outside of that door.” He said he yelled for all of the protesters to stop: “I tried to wait as long as I could. I hoped and prayed no one tried to enter through those doors. But their failure to comply required me to take the appropriate action to save the lives of members of Congress and myself and my fellow officers.”

Byrd could just as well have hit the officers behind Babbitt, who was shot while struggling to squeeze through the window.

Of all of the lines from Byrd, this one stands out: “I could not fully see her hands or what was in the backpack or what the intentions are.” So, Byrd admitted he did not see a weapon or an immediate threat from Babbitt beyond her trying to enter through the window. Nevertheless, Byrd boasted, “I know that day I saved countless lives.” He ignored that Babbitt was the one person killed during the riot. (Two protesters died of natural causes and a third from an amphetamine overdose; one police officer died the next day from natural causes, and four officers have committed suicide since then.) No other officers facing similar threats shot anyone in any other part of the Capitol, even those who were attacked by rioters armed with clubs or other objects.

The new report confirms prior accounts that Byrd had prior disciplinary and training issues. According to Just the News, they included “a failed shotgun qualification test, a failed FBI background check for a weapon’s purchase, a 33-day suspension for a lost weapon and referral to Maryland state prosecutors for firing his gun at a stolen car fleeing his neighborhood.”

Given this history and the shooting of Babbitt, Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., the chair of the House Administration Oversight Subcommittee investigation, wrote to express concern over Byrd’s promotion to captain. Those incidents included Byrd firing at a car and allegedly misrepresenting the incident in claiming that “he fired at a vehicle trying to strike him when the evidence fellow officers found at the scene indicated he shot at the vehicle after it had already passed him and no longer posed a threat.” The letter states the Office of Professional Responsibility found that the evidence did not support his claim and “OPR concluded that the evidence suggests Byrd ‘discharged his service weapon at the vans after they passed him by.’”

The concern is that the political environment — and powerful interests in Congress — demanded that Byrd be cleared. As discussed in my new book, The Indispensable Right,” the Justice Department had publicly pledged to bring “shock and awe” in prosecuting anyone associated with the riot. Finding that the only person killed that day was an unjustified shooting would not exactly fit with the narrative.

The incidents also include allegations of improper handling of his weapon, including reports that Byrd left his service weapon in a public bathroom in the Capitol Visitor Center complex used by tourists and visitors.

The Babbitt family has continued to fight to force the facts into the open and has filed a civil case. A trial is now set for 2026.

Here is his letter detailing the disciplinary problems of Captain Byrd: 11.20.2024 Letter From Rep. Barry Loudermilk to USCP Chief of Police Manger.pdf

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 13:25

Indiana AG Opens "Human Labor Trafficking" Probe At Tyson Meat Factory 

Zero Hedge -

Indiana AG Opens "Human Labor Trafficking" Probe At Tyson Meat Factory 

One week after our viral "Dear Border Czar: This Nonprofit Boasts A List Of 400 Companies That Employ Migrants" note revealed the Tent Partnership for Refugees, an open border aligned nonprofit, funded by a Turkish billionaire who was a mega supporter of Kamala Harris, funneled migrants into factories via a complex network of settlement agencies, staffing agencies, and other nonprofits... 

... Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita released a statement Wednseday, indicating his office has sent a civil investigative demand (CID) to Tyson Foods' meat factory in Logansport, Indiana, seeking information about human labor trafficking

Rokita's office stated, "Tyson Foods may be in possession, custody, or control of documentary materials or may have knowledge of facts that are relevant to an investigation being conducted concerning human labor trafficking and indecent nuisances." 

Here's where things get very interesting...

Attorney General Rokita announced he sent CIDs to Cass County Health Department, Logansport Community School Corp., Berry Global Group Inc., Tent Partnership for Refugees, God is Good, and Jackson County Industrial Development Corp. over this same growing issue.

On October 10, we first commented on the Tyson meatpacking plant in Logansport. 

The investigation is focused on the complex web of nonprofits, "refugee resettlement" organizations, and employers like Tyson Foods... 

We first revealed Tent's questionable activity in funneling migrants into corporations as early as Much in a note titled "How Shadowy Network Of NGOs Supplies Mega-Corporations With Migrants To Exploit Cheap Labor."

What's very clear is that migrants did not aimlessly walk across Biden-Harris' wide-open southern border and then find instant job placements that displaced and replaced blue-collar native-born workers. There is a massive NGO network, internationally and domestically, that channels unvetted migrants from foreign lands into US factories.

Last week, incoming "border czar," Tom Homan, told "Fox & Friends" hosts, "Public safety threats and national security threats will be the priority...they pose the most danger to this country." 

Homan said, "Where do we find most victims of sex trafficking and forced labor trafficking? At worksites..." 

Homan's team will have a field day with Tent's list of 400 companies that used their services to source low-cost, cheap migrants instead of holding job fairs for US citizens.

Tyson Foods must respond to the CID by December 4, 2024.

Lining America's food supply chain with unvetted migrants raises significant national security concerns.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 13:05

Senate Kills Sanders' Effort To Block Weapons For Israel

Zero Hedge -

Senate Kills Sanders' Effort To Block Weapons For Israel

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The Senate on Wednesday night voted down resolutions introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to block several weapons transfers to Israel, but the effort received more support from Democrats than expected.

Eighteen senators — Sanders, Sen. Angus King (I-ME), and 16 Democrats — voted in favor of the first resolution that would have blocked the transfer of 120mm tank shells to Israel. 

Getty Images

Seventy-nine senators voted against the resolution, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who opposes US military aid to Ukraine and previously joined efforts against weapons transfers to Saudi Arabia that supported its brutal war in Yemen.

The second resolution to block 120mm mortar rounds for Israel failed in a vote of 19-78. The third resolution, which would have blocked a JDAM bomb kit shipment to Israel, failed in a vote of 17-80.

The White House came out strongly against the resolutions ahead of the vote, putting out talking points that claimed any senator who voted to block the arms shipments to Israel would be helping Hamas.

"Disapproving arms purchases for Israel at this moment wouldput wind in the sails of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas at the worst possible moment," the Biden administration said.

A day earlier, Sanders and his cosponsors — Peter Welch (D-VT), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) — gave a press conference where they explained their reasoning for wanting to block the arms transfers, pointing to the starvation of Palestinians and atrocities being committed with US weapons.

Sanders said US military aid to Israel was illegal due to US foreign assistance laws that prohibit providing weapons to countries that intentionally block aid or commit human rights violations.

"Israel is clearly in violation of these laws," Sanders said. "Under these circumstances, it is illegal for the US government to provide them with more offensive weaponry. Joint resolutions of disapproval are Congress’s tool to enforce those laws."

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 12:45

Jussie Smollett Hate Crime Hoax Overturned By Illinois Supreme Court On Technicality

Zero Hedge -

Jussie Smollett Hate Crime Hoax Overturned By Illinois Supreme Court On Technicality

Disgraced actor Jussie Smollet's hate 2019 hate crime hoax has been overturned by the Illinois Supreme Court over prosecutorial issues.

According to the state high court, the former "Empire" actor should not have been charged after he entered a non-prosecution agreement with the Cook County State Attorney's office.

"Today we resolve a question about the State’s responsibility to honor the agreements it makes with defendants," the court wrote in documents obtained by Fox News. "Specifically, we address whether a dismissal of a case by nolle prosequi allows the State to bring a second prosecution when the dismissal was entered as part of an agreement with the defendant and the defendant has performed his part of the bargain. We hold that a second prosecution under these circumstances is a due process violation, and we therefore reverse defendant’s conviction."

Smollett was sentenced to 150 days in jail and 30 months' probation after being found guilty of five counts of felony disorderly conduct, after he told police in January 2019 that he had been attacked by Trump supporters shouting at 2am in the middle of Chicago.

Smollett claimed that two Nigerian-born brothers - one of whom was his personal trainer, lover, and alleged drug dealer - are "sophisticated" criminals who set him up. The 39-year-old actor is accused of lying to police about being the victim of a racist and homophobic assault. The class-4 felony carries a sentence of up to three years in prison, however experts cited by Fox News think he would most likely face probation and perhaps community service.

The brothers, Abimbola and Olabinjo Osundario, claim Smollett paid them $3,500 to stage an infamous hate-crime hoax on January 29, 2019 - when the former "Empire" star claimed he was attacked around 2 a.m. by two white men who recognized him from the show shouted racist and homophobic slurs, doused him in a bleach-like liquid, hung a rope around his neck, and yelled "This is MAGA country."

The scandal soon engulfed Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, who was widely criticized for the move and was later found to have made a series of unethical blunders in her handling of the case. 

Smollet was originally slapped with a 16-count indictment for lying to the police, however the Cook County State Attorney's office suddenly dropped the charges after  Michelle Obama's former Chief of Staff, Tina Tchen, pressured Chicago's top prosecutor, Kim Foxx, to transfer the case to the FBI. When that wasn't done, Foxx's office decided not to pursue the case.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 12:20

NatGas Hits Highest Price In Year On "Very Cold Pattern Developing" Across Lower 48 

Zero Hedge -

NatGas Hits Highest Price In Year On "Very Cold Pattern Developing" Across Lower 48 

Natural gas futures in Chicago jumped 6% on Thursday, reaching a one-year high as traders price a cold blast across the Lower 48. 

Futures for December delivery soared to $3.372 per million British thermal units, up 6% this morning and up nearly 27% since Nov. 8. Prices also touched a one-year. 

Ole R. Hvalbye, a Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), told energy news website Rigzone that NatGas soared on "the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) short-term forecast (6-14 days) predicts colder than normal temperatures spreading from the West Coast, with below-average conditions expected across much of the country, except for the Gulf Coast and East Coast."

Data from Bloomberg shows that temperatures across the Lower 48 are forecasted to trend below a 30-year average for the next few weeks, indicating that fuel demand will rise as thermostats are turned up. 

More weather forecast...

Plus, there are major snow threats across the Mid-Alantic and Northeast.

"Adding to the bullish sentiment, feedgas supply to U.S. LNG export terminals has climbed to 14.07 billion cubic feet per day, the highest level since January 2024, according to BNEF," Hvalbye added.

The SEB analyst continued, "This marks a significant increase from last week's average of 13.5 billion cubic feet per day. Additionally, export flows to Mexico are estimated at 6.6 billion cubic feet per day today, highlighting strong demand from the region."

He said, "Domestic natural gas production in the U.S. is estimated at 101.8 billion cubic feet per day today, slightly below last week's average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day." 

"Meanwhile, demand for nat gas across the Lower 48 states has risen to 79.3 billion cubic feet per day but remains below the five-year average of approximately 82.7 billion cubic feet per day," he noted. 

Hvalbye added that the EU gas market will continue to see upward price pressure as global demand for LNG cargoes intensifies during the Northern Hemisphere winter season. 

One of the biggest questions for energy traders is how high prices will rise before drillers, who curtailed output earlier this year, begin ramping up production. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 11:40

Investors Are Increasingly Reluctant To Buy US Treasuries Even At These Yields

Zero Hedge -

Investors Are Increasingly Reluctant To Buy US Treasuries Even At These Yields

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday, my colleague wrote that not everything is worth worrying about equally. Financial stability reports always provide plenty of fodder for pessimists; after all, the purpose of these reports is to raise awareness of potential downsides. But not all risks are equally concrete or urgent. Having said that, in its latest Financial Stability Review, the ECB was more blunt about financial risks than in previous years.

The central bank is particularly worried about the potential resurgence of the sovereign debt crisis, but unlike the original crisis, France is now being called out as a particular risk: policy uncertainty [or paralysis], weak fiscal fundamentals in some countries and sluggish potential growth raise concerns about sovereign debt sustainability.” Countries’ debt ratios are high, and this debt increasingly has to be refinanced at higher interest rates. Admittedly, it is somewhat alarming that fiscal metrics haven’t recovered since the pandemic – although ratios have improved over the past few years.

The ECB continues that “large primary deficits make it harder to provide additional investment to combat structural challenges, including climate change, defence spending, and low productivity.” It’s hard to argue with this logic. Yet, at the same time, the bold investments required to fix Europe’s low structural growth rate require big government outlays. And, as we’ve noted almost a year ago now, any government will find it hard to gather voters’ support for structural investments and reforms if this means cutting back on social spending.

Corporate actions only underscore this need for structural improvement: yesterday, Ford announced it would cut 4,000 European jobs due to sluggish demand for electric vehicles and “fierce competition from China.”

At the same time, the outspokenness of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review is perhaps something of a warning to those who are banking on steep rate cuts. Of course, if a crisis were to develop, the ECB may have no other choice but to go back to it’s playbook for most of the 2010s. But the concerns about refinancing risk and higher interest costs imply that the central bank does not anticipate a return to very low rates.

Likewise, incoming data underscore that the easing cycle may not be as fast as some expect, and that it may end at a substantially higher rate. Yesterday, the ECB reported that Eurozone negotiated wages rose 5.4% y/y in Q3, pouring a bucket of cold water over any remaining expectations that the central bank may cut by more than 25 basis points in December. A rebound had been expected after the 3.5% print in the second quarter but the re-acceleration was significantly stronger than both we and the ECB had anticipated.

A large part of the acceleration can be attributed to strong wage increases in Germany. In Q3, collective agreements led to an 8.8% y/y increase in German wages. Stripping out one-off payments, German wages clocked in at 5.7%; That’s a sharp acceleration from 4% in Q2. We don’t believe that this acceleration will be sustained. The recent IG Metall deal, for example, suggests more moderate wage growth in the coming quarters. Nonetheless, data continue to underscore that wage pressures are receding only gradually.

Relatively sticky wages in other countries are also pointing in that direction. Dutch employers’ association AWVN tracked collectively agreed wages in Q3 at 4.3%, while Italian and Spanish wages appear to have stabilized just above the 3%-mark. On the very other end of the spectrum, French wages are still trending down, from 2.8% in Q2 to 2.7%. This will likely converge to further to the inflation rate in the coming quarters.

So, all in all, these data should not prevent the ECB from another 25bp cut in December, but they do underscore the need for caution as the ECB navigates heightened uncertainty about growth and lingering inflation risks.

Many of these risks are ultimately of Europe’s own making, but incoming President Trump is putting them in the spotlight. Trump has been quick to assemble much of his team, but one of the key roles, Treasury Secretary, remains unfilled for now. The President-elect’s more cautious approach perhaps reflects his awareness of the importance of this position. The FT reported yesterday that Marc Rowan –who is not unfamiliar to Wall Street–  is now a top contender for the job.

And Trump is right to consider his options. Because whoever gets the job, it will be a tough one. The incoming Treasury Secretary will have the difficult challenge of uniting Trump’s agenda of disruption and change in the (world) economy, and tax cuts, with stability in financial markets. The potential impact on the US fiscal deficit is getting increasing attention, and yesterday’s auction of 20y Treasury bonds served as a warning to the incoming administration. The auction drew very weak demand, even though 20y yields have risen from 4% in mid-September to around 4.65% currently. Although the 20 year is admittedly a bit of an odd point on the US curve, it does suggest that investors are reluctant to buy Treasuries even at these yields as long as there are concerns about potential impact of Trump’s plans on the deficit.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 11:20

Musk, Ramaswamy Reveal DOGE Blueprint To Cut Government Waste

Zero Hedge -

Musk, Ramaswamy Reveal DOGE Blueprint To Cut Government Waste

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have laid out their vision for the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

According to a new WSJ op-ed, the pair writes that "Our nation was founded on the basic idea that the people we elect run the government. That isn’t how America functions today. Most legal edicts aren’t laws enacted by Congress but “rules and regulations” promulgated by unelected bureaucrats—tens of thousands of them each year."

They call government bloat "antidemocratic and antithetical to the Founders' vision,' as it "imposes massive direct and indirect costs on taxpayers."

President Trump has asked the two of us to lead a newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to cut the federal government down to size. The entrenched and ever-growing bureaucracy represents an existential threat to our republic, and politicians have abetted it for too long. That’s why we’re doing things differently. We are entrepreneurs, not politicians. We will serve as outside volunteers, not federal officials or employees. Unlike government commissions or advisory committees, we won’t just write reports or cut ribbons. We’ll cut costs.

As the Epoch Times notes, the urgency for downsizing the federal government is due to the ballooning costs of paying interest on our ginormous national debt. I and others have been writing about the debt problem for decades, but now the national debt has reached a critical stage. According to usdebtclock.org, the federal debt passed $36 trillion last week.

There is nothing inherently significant about the number $36 trillion, but as you can see from the accompanying chart published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the annual cost of the federal debt has exploded from under $600 billion in 2020 to over $1 trillion now.

Here's the plan:

1. Regulatory Rescissions: Rolling Back Illegitimate Regulations

The most immediate and significant action DOGE will take is targeting the tens of thousands of regulations imposed by federal agencies, many of which exceed the constitutional authority granted to these agencies.

  • Using Supreme Court Rulings as a Guide: Following the rulings in West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency (2022) and Loper Bright v. Raimondo (2024), DOGE will work to identify regulations that overstep the bounds of the authority Congress has granted. These rulings clarify that agencies cannot enact major economic or policy decisions without explicit congressional approval. DOGE will compile a list of regulations that should be nullified and present them to President Trump for executive action.

  • Immediate Suspension and Review of Regulations: Through executive orders, the president will pause enforcement of these overreaching regulations and initiate a full review process for rescission. This action will prevent regulations that were never approved by Congress from continuing to harm businesses and individuals.

  • Creating a System to Prevent Reviving Illegitimate Regulations: Once regulations are rescinded, DOGE will ensure that future administrations cannot simply reinstate them. Any reactivation of these regulations would require a new act of Congress, ensuring that regulatory power is returned to the people’s elected representatives.

2. Administrative Reductions: Streamlining Federal Agencies

Alongside regulatory rescissions, a drastic reduction in the size of the federal bureaucracy will be necessary. DOGE will target specific reforms to reduce the number of federal employees, streamline agency operations, and focus government efforts on its core constitutional responsibilities.

  • Identifying Minimum Staffing Needs: DOGE will collaborate with agency leaders to identify the minimum number of employees required to carry out essential functions. With fewer regulations to enforce, many agencies will require significantly fewer staff. As regulations are rescinded, the corresponding workforce reductions will follow.

  • Cost-effective Employee Transitions: For those whose positions are eliminated, DOGE will support their transition into the private sector, providing incentives for early retirement or voluntary severance. Programs designed to make these exits as seamless as possible will be implemented, ensuring a smooth process for both employees and taxpayers.

  • Leveraging Executive Authority to Limit Bureaucratic Growth: President Trump will use his authority to amend civil-service rules to curtail administrative overgrowth. This could include actions like large-scale firings or moving federal agencies out of Washington, D.C., to reduce costs and decentralize power.

  • Restoring Accountability in Federal Agencies: Agencies will be required to return to in-person work, ending the COVID-era trend of remote work. This will incentivize employees who are unwilling to meet this expectation to voluntarily exit, reducing the overall headcount.

3. Cost Savings: Tackling Waste, Fraud, and Abuse

Beyond reducing the size of government and eliminating unnecessary regulations, DOGE will focus on eliminating wasteful spending and ensuring that taxpayer dollars are used efficiently.

  • Ending Unauthorized Expenditures: A significant portion of federal spending, over $500 billion annually, is either unauthorized by Congress or used for purposes Congress never intended. DOGE will work with the administration to end these wasteful programs, including unnecessary funding to international organizations and progressive groups, while scrutinizing expenditures like the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

  • Overhauling Federal Procurement: The government’s procurement system is notorious for waste and inefficiency. DOGE will conduct large-scale audits of federal contracts, suspending payments where necessary to identify and eliminate inefficiencies. This will be especially critical for agencies like the Department of Defense, which has failed repeated audits, indicating a lack of oversight over how taxpayer money is spent.

  • Targeting the Deficit and Overspending: While entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid are often the focus of budgetary discussions, DOGE will tackle the more immediate waste, fraud, and abuse that plagues most federal agencies. Through targeted executive actions, DOGE will curb these excesses without the need for new legislation.

A Historic Opportunity

With a mandate for change and a supportive legal framework, DOGE has the opportunity to make meaningful strides in reducing the size and scope of the federal government. Through regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions, and targeted cost savings, this initiative aims to eliminate wasteful spending and restore accountability in Washington.

The ultimate goal of DOGE is to make its own existence obsolete by July 4, 2026 - the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. By then, it is hoped that a leaner, more efficient government will be in place, one that is more responsive to the needs of the people and more in line with the vision of the Founders. If successful, this reform effort will be a gift to the nation, ensuring that future generations inherit a government that is both effective and accountable.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 11:00

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

Excerpt:
As expected, existing home sales were up year-over-year for the first time since 2021. This was a combination of weak sales in October last year and lower mortgage rates in August and September when contracts were signed (Existing home sales are reported at closing).
...
The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearThe fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales increased 2.9% year-over-year compared to October 2023. This was the first year-over-year increase since July 2021.

The Magic Of Classic US Gold & Silver Coins

Zero Hedge -

The Magic Of Classic US Gold & Silver Coins

By Jesse Colombo of The Bubble Bubble Report

Most gold and silver investors begin their journey by purchasing modern bullion coins, such as the American Gold and Silver Eagles from the United States Mint—a practical and popular way to invest in precious metals, and how I started as well. However, I soon discovered that the United States once minted gold and silver coins for everyday circulation, not just for investment purposes like today's bullion coins. As I delved deeper into these classic American coins, I developed a profound appreciation for their elegance, historical significance, and connection to a time when the U.S. dollar was made from and backed by gold and silver. In this article, I aim to share the benefits and joys of investing in these timeless pieces of American history.

Four years after the ratification of the United States Constitution, Congress passed the Coinage Act of 1792. This landmark legislation established the U.S. dollar as the nation’s standard unit of currency, created the United States Mint, and set forth regulations for coinage. The Act designated the silver dollar as the official unit of money and declared it lawful tender. It also introduced three gold coins: the $10 "eagle," the $5 "half eagle," and the $2.50 "quarter eagle," laying the foundation for the nation's monetary system. The $20 "double eagle" coin containing 0.9675 troy ounces of gold was introduced in 1849 as a means to utilize and market the significant influx of gold from the California Gold Rush.

$20 gold double eagle and $10 gold eagle coins from the author’s collection

From 1795 to 1933, the United States Mint produced gold coins designed for everyday use rather than for investment or collecting. During this period, silver coins were commonly used for daily transactions, while gold coins primarily served as a means of savings and wealth preservation. Gold coins were also used for large purchases, such as land, and in commercial transactions. Due to their high value, gold coins were typically owned by the affluent. In particular, most $20 gold double eagles were stored in bank vaults and seldom circulated in everyday life because of their substantial value, even at the time.

Since pre-1933 U.S. gold coins were rarely used in everyday transactions, a significant number of them have survived in excellent condition, including many graded as Brilliant Uncirculated (BU). What I find fascinating is that many of these coins—provided they are not rare dates or strikes—are surprisingly common and can often be acquired at premiums similar to, or even lower than, modern bullion coins. Yet, they carry with them a rich historical legacy! Many reputable bullion dealers, such as SD Bullion, JM Bullion, Money Metals Exchange, and APMEX, offer these remarkable coins, making them accessible to collectors and investors alike.

If your primary goal is to invest in gold while still enjoying a touch of history (as opposed to collecting rare coins), focusing on common-year $20 gold double eagles from the late-1800s and early-1900s is your best bet. As far as classic coins go, these coins typically carry the lowest premiums over the spot price of gold. For instance, SD Bullion currently offers Brilliant Uncirculated $20 Saint-Gaudens double eagles at a 6.05% premium over the spot price of gold. By comparison, the ultra-popular modern 1 oz American gold eagle bullion coin is available at a 5.69% premium. In my opinion, that extra 0.36% premium is well worth it for owning a tangible piece of history!

The smaller $10, $5, and $2.50 gold eagle-series coins are certainly fascinating, and I personally own a few. However, they tend to carry significantly higher premiums compared to the $20 gold double eagles, making them less ideal for investment purposes. Among the $20 gold double eagles, the 1907–1933 Saint-Gaudens design is often regarded as one of the most beautiful coin designs in history, which has made it highly sought after. In contrast, the 1849–1907 Liberty Head $20 gold double eagle, while more understated in appearance, is still a desirable piece (and one I also own and appreciate). Notably, the 1933 Saint-Gaudens $20 gold double eagle holds the distinction of being the most valuable gold coin ever sold, fetching an astonishing $18.8 million in 2021 and setting the record for the most expensive coin in history.

Classic American silver coins and silver certificates from the author’s collection

In addition to classic American gold coins, I also enjoy investing in classic American silver coins, which were minted for everyday circulation between 1794 and 1970. During this period, dimes, quarters, half-dollars, and dollar coins were made from silver alloys. Today, these coins are a popular way to invest in silver and are commonly referred to as “junk silver,” pre-1965 silver coins, or 90%, 40%, and 35% silver coins. While I own some higher-value U.S. silver coins, such as early 20th-century pieces and silver dollars, the best option for most investors is to focus on common-date silver dimes, quarters, and half-dollars from the mid-twentieth century. These tend to have lower premiums compared to silver coins with greater numismatic value. For finding the best deals on junk silver, I recommend using FindBullionPrices.com, a great resource for comparing prices.

I absolutely love the look, feel, heft, and distinctive "clink" sound of classic American silver coins, which stand in stark contrast to soulless modern non-silver coins. Even when these silver coins have a weathered or slightly tarnished appearance, I find them even more charming, as they carry a tangible sense of history—evidence of the countless hands that have touched and handled them over the years. In fact, I often prefer circulated and weathered silver coins to pristine modern bullion coins because I can freely touch and handle them without worrying about tarnishing or leaving fingerprints. Unlike gold, silver naturally tarnishes, so I feel less guilty about enjoying these historic coins in a hands-on way, adding to their unique appeal.

America's currency was once backed by and literally made from precious metals, which have served as money par excellence for approximately 6,000 years. However, the U.S. dollar has been steadily devalued since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has been a terrible steward of the nation’s currency, enabling excessive government spending by creating new dollars. For instance, within just six years of the Fed's founding, the dollar lost half of its purchasing power—a trend that has persisted over time.

To add insult to injury, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt took the United States off the Gold Standard in 1933, ceased the minting of gold coins, and banned private ownership of gold. This policy required individuals to turn in their gold eagle coins to the government, which then melted them down. However, many of the pre-1933 U.S. gold coins available today were spared from this fate because they had been stored in European bank vaults, allowing them to survive unscathed and find their way back into the market decades later.

In 1965, the United States stopped minting dimes, quarters, and half-dollars from their traditional 90% silver alloy, replacing it with a cheaper nickel-and-copper composition. This marked yet another significant debasement of the U.S. dollar. As the melt value of the older silver coins soon exceeded their face value, those who recognized their greater worth quickly removed them from circulation. This historical shift explains why these silver coins remain popular among investors and collectors even today.

Finally, on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold for foreign governments, effectively transforming the dollar into a pure fiat or “paper” currency with no intrinsic backing. This pivotal decision removed all constraints on the creation of new money, marking the final nail in the coffin for the dollar’s integrity and purchasing power. Over the ensuing decades, this shift paved the way for rampant inflation, unaffordable housing and other necessities, skyrocketing national debt, and an ever-widening wealth gap. To dive deeper into the steady debasement of the U.S. dollar and its far-reaching consequences, check out my detailed article on ZeroHedge.

Contrary to popular belief, inflation is not simply the rising cost of goods and services—that's merely the inevitable consequence. True inflation is the expansion of the money supply itself. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman famously stated, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” General inflation is rooted in monetary policy, not in supply shocks like energy crises or droughts that temporarily raise prices for specific goods.

A long-term chart of the U.S. adjusted monetary base, a key measure of the money supply, reveals a staggering 55,440% increase from 1920 to 2020. Curiously, the Federal Reserve stopped publishing this data series in late 2019—a move that raises serious questions. Could they be attempting to obscure the extent of the dollar's debasement? You decide.

Another key measure of the money supply is the M2 money supply, and its correlation with the price of gold is clear. This relationship highlights why gold serves as an excellent long-term hedge against money printing and inflation. Silver also tracks the M2 money supply, though its price tends to exhibit greater volatility compared to gold.

The long-term U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) chart, which dates back to 1800, vividly illustrates how each successive erosion of the dollar’s integrity has led to soaring living costs and a dramatic decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. Remarkably, consumer prices in the United States were relatively stable for nearly a century until the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913. This marked a turning point, unleashing inflation on an unprecedented scale. Since the Fed's inception, U.S. consumer prices have risen more than thirtyfold!

It’s difficult to imagine a time without steady, relentless inflation, but that was the reality throughout much of the 19th century. During this era, money was far sounder, backed by gold and silver, providing a stable foundation for the nation’s economy—despite the lack of modern technology and so-called “sophistication” we have today.

Since its creation in 1913, the Federal Reserve has overseen the U.S. dollar's staggering loss of nearly 97% of its purchasing power—a decline that shows no signs of stopping, unfortunately:

Another striking way to visualize the dollar’s dramatic loss of purchasing power is by comparing it to gold. Over the past century, the U.S. dollar has lost an astonishing 99.25% of its purchasing power relative to gold.

The harsh reality is that the devaluation of the dollar will continue until it meets the same fate as every paper currency throughout history—complete worthlessness. Unfortunately, it’s not just the dollar that is on this trajectory; the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and other fiat currencies are all on the same precarious path. Governments have always struggled to resist the temptation of money printing, a practice enabled by paper currencies but restrained when money is backed by gold and silver.

As I recently explained, the U.S. national debt has surged past $36 trillion, with annual interest payments now exceeding $1.1 trillion. This staggering figure surpasses federal spending on defense, income security, health, veterans' benefits, and even Medicare, making it the second-largest expense for the U.S. government—second only to Social Security. This unsustainable fiscal situation will inevitably compel the U.S. to rely heavily on printing more money just to meet its obligations—a vicious cycle that will accelerate the currency’s decline.

Classic American gold and silver coins evoke a bittersweet feeling for me. On one hand, I love that they serve as a tangible reminder of a time when we had sound money; on the other, it saddens me that this era of monetary integrity is long gone. Anyone with wisdom and foresight should safeguard their hard-earned wealth with gold and silver—timeless forms of money that have reliably served humanity for thousands of years.

While I enjoy investing in modern bullion coins and bars, there’s something uniquely special about pre-1933 American gold coins and pre-1965 silver coins. Their history, craftsmanship, and connection to a bygone era set them apart. I believe you’ll understand exactly what I mean once you hold a piece of this history in your own hands.

If you enjoyed this article, please visit Jesse's Substack for more content like this

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/21/2024 - 10:40

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