Russia Crude Exports Tumble To Two Month Low

Russian crude oil shipments dropped to a two-month low as loadings from Russia’s Western ports slumped, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.

In the four weeks to November 17, Russian crude oil exports by sea dipped to 3.28 million barrels per day (bpd), down by 150,000 bpd compared to the previous four-week average to November 10, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. The decline in exports was the biggest since the end of July.  Daily crude flows in the week to Nov. 17 slumped by about 740,000 barrels to 2.83 million, dropping to their lowest since the first seven days of July.

The decline was driven by lower flows from the country’s Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic ports, while shipments from the Pacific remained unchanged.

A total of 26 tankers loaded 19.8 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Nov. 17, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down sharply from a revised 24.98 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week.

The weekly decline was mostly the result of a 30% slump in shipments from Russia’s export terminals on the Baltic and Black Seas. It could have been the result of increased refining rates in the second week of November, which left lower volumes of crude available for exports, according to Bloomberg.

In October, as available refinery capacity in Russia dipped, crude oil shipments hit a four-month high, as heavy domestic refinery maintenance left more crude available for export.

Russia exported on average 3.47 million bpd of crude in the four weeks to October 20, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to October 13, Bloomberg data showed at the time.

That was a consequence of refining rates at Russian crude processing facilities dropping to their lowest level for more than two years, since May 2022.

Crude exports from Russia could soon rise again, as some refineries are struggling with losses amid the gasoline export ban, currently in place until December 31, 2024.

Russia’s refineries have reportedly started to reduce run rates and some are considering shutting in operations, as the facilities are struggling with hefty losses amid export restrictions, rising oil prices, sanctions, and Ukrainian drone attacks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 20:30

Recommending Brig. Gen. Schwalier For The Air Force 'Plucking Board'

Authored by Forrest Marrion via RealClearPolitics,

In the mid-1990s, Brig. Gen. Terryl J. Schwalier “was a rising star in the Air Force,” as Dr. Rebecca Grant wrote in 2006. A decade earlier, in June 1996 he was finishing his one-year tour as a provisional wing commander in Saudi Arabia and was slated for promotion to major general. Then disaster struck. On June 25, 1996, a terrorist truck-bomb – “unprecedentedly large” – exploded outside the building in which his airmen were billeted. Nineteen died. Two hundred forty were wounded. Khobar Towers was among the worst losses of U.S. Air Force life at a deployed location in a single hostile incident in memory. In the investigation that followed, defense secretary William Cohen faced political pressure to assign blame. He buckled, going against his military advisors’ counsel, and, instead, denying Schwalier his second star. The scapegoated general retired.

The decision was unjust in the eyes of many in the know. For starters, Schwalier had not been lax in terms of “force protection (FP).” In fact, he had implemented some one hundred thirty separate FP measures during his deployment and made nearly all the changes recommended by a vulnerability assessment. As the writer recalls, Schwalier’s story and the tragedy of Khobar Towers was part of the assigned readings at the Air Force’s Air Command and Staff College the following year. Furthermore, a key part of the Pentagon’s “outside probe” headed by a retired four-star was badly flawed on the size of the bomb used. The actual bomb – containing “at least 20,000 pounds of TNT” according to the Defense Special Weapons Agency – was at least four times larger than stated in the report, skewing further the judgment against Schwalier. In the years after Schwalier’s retirement, several attempts to overturn the denial of his promotion fell short.

In July 1997, days prior to the announcement of Cohen’s decision to deny Schwalier his promotion, Air Force chief of staff General Ron Fogleman resigned. He did so based on principle, stating to Aerospace Power Journal, “I just could not begin to imagine facing the Air Force after Secretary Cohen made the decision to cancel General Schwalier’s promotion.” In another forum, the chief stated, “I simply lost respect and confidence in the leadership that I was supposed to be following.”

For the record, I have zero relationship with the brigadier general. About ten years ago I was privileged to meet General Fogleman – though unplanned – at the top of the escalator outside the Pentagon, as each of us waited to meet someone. We had three minutes together. Even those who have never met General Fogleman hold him in highest regard. He is universally respected and admired. As far as I know, he was the last four-star to resign on principle.

We need more like him. In the last several years, as more and more are realizing – or at least are finding the courage to speak up – the Air Force has lost its way. Despite the Service infamously prioritizing its pilots’ pigmentation over their proficiency – claiming “too many white pilots” – based on leadership’s commitment to a racist ideology (DEI), how many senior officers have resigned as General Fogleman did?

Meanwhile, following President Trump’s reelection, some, like retired one-star and former defense policy senior official Anthony Tata, are reporting, “The Pentagon is hyper politicized and needs a thorough vetting to include senior active duty military personnel” who are participating in discussions on how to undermine the new administration. National security reporter Haley Britzky, warns, “Pentagon officials are having informal conversations about how the [defense department] would respond if Donald Trump issues orders to deploy active-duty troops domestically [or] fire large swaths of apolitical staffers.” This is not news, but common knowledge.

Precedent exists for holding special administrative boards to determine who stays and who goes among Air Force (and all Services’) senior leaders once the new Trump administration takes over. Recently I wrote about General George C. Marshall’s “plucking board” at the outset of World War Two (RealClearDefense, Sep. 26, 2024). As the U.S. Army chief of staff, Marshall was finally in a position to address the seniority system both he and the Army had long suffered under. As the army expanded in 1940 and ‘41 Marshall built a command system “to be able to put my finger on the man I wanted” for particular leadership posts. Marshall biographer Forrest Pogue wrote, “. . . he was preparing an army for war and felt that the selection of those who could lead in battle was a duty he owed the state.”

To ensure impartiality in the process of eliminating unfit senior officers from consideration for higher-level and combat commands, Marshall appointed six retired officers, headed by his predecessor, General Malin Craig. Marshall’s plucking board was “empowered to remove from line promotion any officer for reasons deemed good and sufficient.” Those removed were given one year to retire. As Marshall told the board, “Critical times are upon us.”

We’re in the same boat today. Except that today’s threats come not only from overseas: since the Obama administration, our once-professional military has been politicized, thanks to neo-Marxist ideology, personal enmity, or misguided judgment.

As the above warnings from knowledgeable Pentagon observers indicate, the second Trump administration will need to conduct a thorough house-cleaning of the military officer corps, many of whom wear stars. This is where Brig. Gen. Terry Schwalier comes in. For the Air Force, arguably there are few (if any) retired senior officers as well-suited to join, or lead, a plucking board.

As one lifelong leading aerospace historian and scholar writes:

You want people who can think beyond their service, who don’t have a grudge and “score-settling” attitude . . . who are in their late 60s and 70s to give them detachment, who are recognized stand-outs, and preferably 3 or 4-star so they have “big picture” experience. Finally, and most importantly, all should be combat veterans AND combat commanders.

He adds: Schwalier “meets the criteria.” Should the President decide on that course of action and bring Schwalier back on active duty, promotion to 3-stars is most appropriate.

As in 1940, the United States faces rogue actors abroad, this time led by China and several lesser would-be aggressors. As countless military historians and others observe, leadership remains the key to authentic deterrence based on strength, and, should deterrence fail, to military success. Having decided to prioritize wasteful, degrading, and morale-killing pursuits such as diversity-equity, searching for imagined extremists in the ranks, and identity politics instead of merit-based combat readiness and unit cohesion, the current Air Force and Pentagon senior leadership must be vetted, corrected, or sent into retirement following a professional, impartial, timely evaluation. The clock is ticking before a real fight reveals very quickly that every DEI program and billet was terribly misguided and a waste of money that was needed for combat readiness.

To borrow the term of Marshall’s day, the senior officers complicit in such priorities and activities, are unfit. Whether it’s by a Schwalier-led plucking board or otherwise, they need to go.

Forrest L. Marion is a retired Department of the Air Force military historian. His most recent work is Standing Up Space Force: The Road to the Nation's Sixth Armed Service (Naval Institute Press, 2023).

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 20:05

Biden Rushes $275M More In Weapons To Ukraine Before Trump Enters Office

There are just two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, and Ukraine hawks are feeling the pressure. For them, apparently it's time to flood Zelensky's coffers with as much money as possible ahead of the possibility that Trump may cut off the tap, after having on the campaign trail called Zelensky "the greatest salesman on earth".

"The Pentagon will send Ukraine at least $275 million in new weapons, US officials said Tuesday, as the Biden administration rushes to do as much as it can to help Kyiv fight back against Russia in the remaining two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office," The Associated Press reports Tuesday afternoon.

Via Shutterstock.com

And alarmingly, the same report observes that "In rapid succession this week, President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the authority to fire longer-range missiles deeper into Russia and then Russian President Vladimir Putin formally lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons."

Contents or details of the new aid package have yet been made public, but there could be more missiles and equipment supporting the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which was used by the Ukrainians Tuesday against Russian territory, marking a new escalation.

The geopolitical analysis blog Moon of Alabama has zeroed in on why US authorization for ATACMS attacks on Russian soil is such a big deal:

We do not know yet if the new authorized use for ATACMS munition on targets within Russia is only relevant for the cluster ammunition missile type or for high explosive ATACMS missiles with a reach of 300 kilometer.

However, the Russian President Vladimir Putin has correctly pointed out that ANY use of ATACMS requires the involvement of NATO (U.S/UK) assets for acquiring the targeting data and for planning and programming the missile's mission.

Any use of ATACMS onto Russian proper is thus an act of war by NATO against the Russian Federation. The Russian response to such will be appropriate but may well surface in a theater far from Ukraine.

Indeed President Putin and Kremlin officials have echoed precisely this point of view of late, which is also why Putin signed into effect a new expansion of Russia's nuclear doctrine.

According to the newly expanded doctrine, in the event Western powers assist another nation in a major attack on Russian soil, those same Western powers will also be held responsible. This can trigger Russian nuclear launch. But so far Russian officials have made it clear that they do not anticipate nuclear war.

Clearly the Kremlin is awaiting patiently the return of Donald Trump to the White House, hoping this will stop NATO's steady escalation of involvement in the war on Ukraine's behalf.

Meanwhile, with all that money for Ukraine floating around, and constant transfers of arms, this exchange is important to recall...

Stewart uses some bad language here, but consider for a moment her attitude. This is what elitism looks like. This is what people on on the left and right are upset about. Elites who laugh at millions of dollars being wasted, precisely because they can't be found... pic.twitter.com/GnBeONkXDC

— Fr. George (@FrGeorgedeIdaho) November 19, 2024

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 19:40

Minnesota Election Judge Faces Felony Charges For Allowing Unregistered People To Vote

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

An election judge in Minnesota is now facing serious criminal charges after he allowed multiple unregistered residents to cast votes anyway in the recent election.

As reported by Breitbart, Judge Timothy Michael Scouton was responsible for overseeing the election process in Badoura Township, a small town with a population of roughly 100 people.

Hubbard County Auditor Kay Rave filed a complaint after she determined that she could not find completed registration forms among the ballots she received from Scouton’s jurisdiction.

This complaint led to an investigation by the Hubbard County Sheriff’s Office.

Eventually, another judge who worked with Scouton on election night came forward and told police that Scouton explicitly ordered voters to not fill out the Minnesota Voter Registration Application.

A third judge said that Scouton simply told new voters to sign the back of a book rather than fill out any official forms.

At least 11 people voted illegally as a result of Scouton’s actions.

He was arrested last week and faces two felony charges: One count of accepting the vote of an unregistered vote, and one count of neglect of duty by an election official.

In a statement following the arrest, the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office issued a statement.

“These allegations are extremely serious and must be fully and thoroughly investigated,” the statement read.

“Election judges take an oath to administer elections in accordance with the law, a deliberate failure to do so is unlawful and a betrayal of the public trust.”

“Minnesota’s elections rely on the dedication and public service of 30,000 people and they are required to conduct their work fairly, impartially, and within the letter of the law,” the statement added.

“The Hubbard County Auditor took prompt and correct action in notifying local authorities of the uncovered discrepancies so they could investigate.”

Scouton had finished his basic election judge training in July of this year.

Adding to the complications of the case, it was revealed that Scouton’s son worked as an election judge on Election Night as well, and was responsible for registering applications.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 19:15

National Average Fuel Prices Nearing Three Year Low

No sooner did President Trump win the election in a landslide than national average gasoline prices are set to fall below the $3 per gallon mark heading into the holiday season in the U.S.

In fact, national average fuel prices have dropped to their lowest since January, nearing 2021 levels, with further declines likely as West Texas Intermediate crude hovers near its lowest since September, according to Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg.

The Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg article states that AAA predicts 71.7 million people will travel by car for Thanksgiving, the highest since before the pandemic. Gas prices, averaging $3.08 last week, could drop below $3 nationally, with drivers in some states east of the Rockies paying as little as $2.25 to $2.50 per gallon.

Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel tracker GasBuddy, told Yahoo/Bloomberg: “Things at the pump are starting to feel normal for most Americans.”

He added: "In some parts of the deep South, where gasoline taxes are low, we’re seeing gas prices that would be more equivalent of the nostalgia everyone has for the good times.”

“Refineries are struggling under weak crack spreads already, meaning that gasoline demand is anemic, and they’re having a hard time finding a home for all the gasoline they’re producing,” DeHaan concluded. 

Meanwhile Yahoo/Bloomberg notes gasoline demand rebounded above last year’s levels, with nationwide inventories dropping and U.S. refiners producing record amounts to counter a decline in imports. However, the brief Thanksgiving travel surge is unlikely to significantly boost refiners' margins. 

Traffic congestion, unlike gas prices, will soar, with cities like Boston, New York, and Los Angeles experiencing more than double their usual traffic, according to INRIX.

And international travel is booming, with flight bookings up 23% and cruise bookings rising 20% compared to last year. Air travelers are also benefiting from lower costs, with international flight prices down 5%, according to AAA.

While the decline hasn't been attributable to President Trump's re-election just yet, Zero Hedge contributor Quoth the Raven predicted in a note on Monday morning column that Trump in office likely means less geopolitical volatility, and eventually, a continued tailwind for lower gas prices. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 18:50

A Revolutionary Time

Authored by Christopher Roach via American Greatness,

Though it has only been two weeks, it feels like a long time since Trump won the election, not least because of his rapid-fire release of cabinet nominations. The cabinet is important and demonstrates presidential priorities, as well as his judgment.

Trump’s cabinet so far matches the themes he expressed during the campaign. He is prioritizing immigration, dismantling the Deep State, and uprooting the “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI)” racket. There is also a “national unity” aspect to his picks because of the inclusion of prominent former Democrat supporters like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard.

So far, things are also running noticeably smoother than they did in 2016. There was a lot of preliminary planning and organization, and it shows.

The Outsider Cabinet

The biggest sign of significant change is the presence of outsiders. His first cabinet included many Bush-administration retreads, military men whom Trump overestimated, and business associates who had no apparent convictions. There was a lot of disloyalty, which magnified the endemic disloyalty of career civil servants.

Looking over Trump’s picks to date, Pete Hegseth seems tasked with prosecuting Trump’s war on “wokeism” within the military, but I am concerned about his lack of experience in managing large organizations. Affirmative action is a major problem in the military, but so too is the bloated procurement system. It needs to be fixed.

Hegseth seems to be a pure gut pick: Trump thought he sounded sharp on Fox News and was impressed with his military record, so now he wants to put him in charge. I hope he’ll rise to the occasion.

Matt Gaetz at the DOJ and Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence head are there to wage war on the Deep State. Both have been personally affected. Gabbard will be good, as she’s obviously bright, has military experience, good foreign policy instincts, and is skeptical of the incumbent organizations.

As an intelligent critic of our interventionist foreign policy, the lying media naturally defames her as a Russian agent. But, after the false Russian collusion allegations against Trump, no one is really listening to this kind of nonsense anymore.

Gaetz has been a hardcore Trump supporter from the beginning, and he will be a major change agent if he can make it through the nomination process. Many at the DOJ are saying they’ll resign if he is appointed; this kind of internal “self-deportation” is a feature and not a bug of Trump’s election. It means Trump gets to hire more people, deal with fewer fifth columnists, and make more of a mark on these run-amok federal agencies.

RFK Jr. at Health and Human Services is the counterweight to the regulatory capture of the FDA and totalitarian instincts of the public health establishment. RFK Jr. has some peculiar and out-of-mainstream ideas. Alternative medicine is, in fact, full of false and dangerous fads, whether it is colloidal silver or using radio waves to diminish autism.

But these ideas are not much crazier than the mandatory masking, social distance rules, and experimental vaccine mandates during COVID. Most important, he appears to respect patient autonomy and recognizes the primary root of health lies not in medicine, but in a healthier lifestyle.

Even though South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem has been nominated to lead the Department of Homeland Security, long-time advisor Steven Miller and proposed immigration Tsar, Tom Homan, are the real capos for the deportation agenda. This seems to be a high priority for the administration.

These are tough, smart, and clear-eyed men who understand the issues well. They inspire confidence.

A Rejection of Managerialism

Each of these nominees is a living refutation of the dominant practices of managerial credentialism. For most of Washington, D.C., a very narrow sense of who is qualified for senior roles ends up doing a lot of work to affect substantive outcomes. This gatekeeping practice looks to credentials and conformity as keys to the realm. Who can forget chubby Alexander Vindman and his praise of the sacred “interagency process?”

Washington’s credentialism is more than a matter of having elite degrees. Critics have mocked Hegseth, even though he is a Princeton and Harvard graduate, reached the rank of major in the National Guard, and is a double Bronze Star winner and combat veteran. But he didn’t follow the usual path and is an unapologetic right-winger, so he is suspect.

Credentialism means one works through the ranks in the same way as everyone currently in authority so that the organization is always replicating itself. An aspirant must be part of the “blob,” wait his turn, learn the acceptable ways to think and talk, and quickly adopt new fads, such as listing pronouns in a LinkedIn bio.

This process yields conformist mediocrities and moral cowards. This includes everyone from the four-star generals who boldly retconned the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan into a success to the current heads of the State Department, CIA, FBI, and DOD. It would be very damaging to this system if outsiders figured out the jobs quickly and were able to achieve better results.

Above all, managerialism is an ideology that empowers credentialed technocrats. It has a strong aversion to anything natural, organic, or unregulated. This is at least one of the roots of the recent obsession with misinformation and disinformation. A raucous, sometimes-wrong, and completely unregulated “marketplace of ideas” is simply too threatening to the managerial class.

Such a freewheeling system risks exposing official lies, such as the outsider-led discovery that COVID was almost certainly a lab leak, which was covered up by lifelong bureaucrats like Anthony Fauci.

New Standards

If the legacy ruling class treated Trump’s first term as an aberration, they seem to understand that 2024 is different. While they seethe, they must also admit that the American people have rejected the left’s extreme social agenda. In response, some good election post-mortems have been written, and it looks like the more extreme manifestations of wokeism are already in retreat from corporate America and the universities.

Under Biden, the Democrats tried to mimic the right’s patriotism with their J6 narrative and defamatory lies about Russian collusion, but their love of country has always been ideological and conditional. This performative patriotism cannot be reconciled with their sustained criticism of America as “systemically racist.” This is why the mask slips so often, and they say things like Trump supporters are “garbage.”

The old system is exemplified by Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris: power-hungry people with only modest talents who worked their way up the ranks but proved incapable of improving anything of importance when given responsibility. They are a reminder that real talent doesn’t always climb through the ranks; it often skips over them or ignores them, sometimes creating whole new organizations.

Under Trump, instead of the “organization kid,” bold and revolutionary outsiders like Elon Musk are providing an alternate model for executive leadership.

Trump was supposed to hire a bunch of outsiders during his first term, and he even created a website to gather resumes from ordinary Americans out in flyover country. But the database and its thousands of resumes were lost, likely sabotaged. He ended up hiring insiders and opportunists provided to him by the RNC.

So far, it appears he has learned from this mistake.

Beauty, Standards, and Excellence

The Democratic Party is lately about ugliness and weirdness. It celebrates the deviant and normalizes it. This makes sense, as beauty, standards, and excellence are all related.

Trump’s team is healthy and attractive. Trump picked those whom he thinks are best for the job, often with diverse views and unorthodox paths to success. So far there is none of the “tokenism” that usually surrounds both Democratic and Republican administrations. He seems indifferent about whether his team “looks like America,” but—like his winning coalition—it will be more representative of the country as a whole than the multi-hued, ideological clones of the Biden administration.

Combined with Trump’s majority, the bold cabinet picks signal a real “vibe shift.” The moment has a revolutionary feel, much more than I expected. It is analogous to the French or, more recently, Reagan revolutions, where styles rapidly changed, along with policies and elites. Short hair and business suits were back in style during the 1980s, after a slacker, self-indulgent decade following the disorders of the 1960s.

If Trump’s support comes from those who are resentful of being ruled over by their inferiors, the left’s core consists of those who are absolutely loyal to this system that artificially elevates them to positions of power and prestige. They are loyal because they know, deep down, in any fair competition, they would lose. This is what is meant by the useful concept of “bioleninism.”

Thus, the Trump revolution is not merely a political one but a cultural and aesthetic one. Things are changing rapidly because the left has lost confidence. They can no longer claim to represent the majority or console themselves that the arc of history is bending toward their eventual triumph.

Long on nostalgia, the Make America Great Again concept is also forward-looking. This is because the greatness of America resides in its optimism, creativity, embrace of technological progress, and because the country has always welcomed and rewarded people of talent, regardless of their pedigree or background.

Even before he has taken the oath for a second time, Trump is exemplifying the MAGA spirit with his extraordinary cabinet of outsiders.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 18:25

Gallup: Public Support For Gun-Bans Craters

According to Gallup’s latest polling, support for a handgun ban has fallen to just 20 percent and support for an “assault weapons” ban has cratered to just 52 percent.

Gun bans were a constant call from both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris over the last four years.

President Biden often combined the call with dubious factual, legal, and historical arguments.

Jonathan Turley previously wrote about the failure of politicians to acknowledge the limits posed by the Second Amendment and controlling case law. While there are good-faith objections to how the Second Amendment has been interpreted, the current case law makes such bans very difficult to defend.

In 2008, the Supreme Court handed down a landmark ruling in District of Columbia v. Heller, recognizing the Second Amendment as encompassing an individual right to bear arms.

Yet, the 2024 campaign showed a belated recognition that the Administration has failed to galvanize public opinion in support of gun limits and bans.

Harris came under fire during the campaign when she suddenly seemed to embrace one of the very guns that she previously vilified as it became clear that she was too far left from much of the country.

Years ago, Turley wrote that the rise in gun ownership in the United States, including among minority gun owners, was strikingly out of sync with the Democratic talking point.

In 2019, support for an assault weapons ban stood at 61%. It is now barely at a majority.

The drop in support for a handgun ban is notable in that only 33 percent of Democrats support such a ban.

The rise in gun ownership and the drop in polling raise another issue where Democratic candidates seem to be speaking to an increasingly empty room. The gun ownership rates are a problem for the party because most political issues do not involve a large personal investment by citizens. When someone becomes a gun owner, they spend hundreds of dollars on the weapon, ammunition, and other costs. The ban campaigns become more of a personal and financial issue for them.

Harris’s attempt to appeal to gun owners fell flat after years of calling for limits and bans.

The question is whether the party is ready to pivot on this and other issues — and whether it can given its political base.

That 33 percent is the core voting block in primaries even as the rest of the country moves toward the center of the political spectrum.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 18:00

Kim Jong Un Calls for 'Limitless' Nuclear Build-Up In Response To 'Asia NATO'

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered a fiery speech where he stressed the importance of accelerating the country’s nuclear weapons program in response to Western threats.  

In the address to the North Korean Army issued days ago, Kim said, "The United States has already converted its alliance with the [South Korea] into a nuclear-based one and created an 'Asian NATO' in haste by cementing its military ties with Japan and South Korea."

The North Korean leader stressed that US nuclear deployments to the region, joint war games with South Korea and Japan, and building military blocs aimed at Pyongyang are all intolerable to North Korea. 

Kim stressed the increasing threat from Washington justified accelerating Pyongyang’s nuclear program. "Long ago, the line of building up our nuclear forces became an irreversible policy, so what remains to be done now is for these forces to get more fully ready for action so that they can carry out the mission of deterring war and the second mission at any moment."

He continued, "We will build up our nation’s self-defense forces, the pivot of which is its nuclear capability, limitlessly and endlessly without satisfaction."

In addition to discussing North Korea’s military tensions with the US, Kim also discussed Pyongyang’s position in what he has previously described as a "new Cold War."

"As the US and other Western countries are using Ukraine as a shock force in the war against Russia, we should view it as a maneuver to enrich their real-war experience and expand the scope of military intervention all over the world."

He added, "By sustaining their military assistance to Ukraine and Israel…This aggravates the international security situation, stoking fears of a third world war."

The relationship between Washington and Pyongyang has soured during the Joe Biden administration. At the end of Donald Trump’s first term, North Korea and the US were engaged in some diplomacy, and Pyongyang was largely respecting its self-imposed missile test moratorium. 

Upon resuming the presidency in 2025, Donald Trump will face an emboldened leader in North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, who has not only expanded the country’s missile arsenal but also enjoys a much closer relationship with Russia https://t.co/CQypdjSqU6 pic.twitter.com/HMMWKbdT6u

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 7, 2024

However, Biden refused to engage with Kim while increasing the presence of the American military in South Korea. Combined with the administration’s efforts to bring South Korea and Japan into a military pact, Pyongyang views the Biden policy as highly aggressive. 

Kim responded by ramping up the missile tests, conducting war games near the DMZ, and strengthening Pyongyang’s ties with Moscow. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:40

Netanyahu Says Israel Offering $1.3 Million Reward For Each Hostage Freed

On Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a rare surprise visit to the Gaza Strip, specifically to the area of the Netzarim Corridor, which runs through the center of the strip.

He was there to deliver a message, showing that Hamas does not and will not rule Gaza. He also issued a warning to those terrorists that are holding Israelis hostage, vowing that they'll pay a heavy price.

He proclaimed that Israel Defense Forces troops in Gaza have "achieved excellent results toward our important goal — that Hamas will not rule in Gaza. We are destroying its military capabilities in a very impressive manner, and we are moving on to its ruling capabilities… Hamas will not be in Gaza."

TOI/GPO: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip on Tuesday.

Israeli authorities have in recent months said that over 60 living hostages remain somewhere in Gaza, of the about 100 who were never returned.

Of these, Netanyahu said "we are not letting up" and that Israel "will continue to do so until we reach everyone — both the living and the dead." He also at one point addressed "those who are holding our hostages," saying that "whoever dares to harm our hostages — will bear the responsibility. We will pursue you and we will get you."

He offered a reward of NIS 5 million (or just over $1.3 million) to anyone in Gaza who turns an Israeli captive over the Israel. It's not the first time a monetary reward has been offered, but the money has been greatly increased with this announcement.

"I gave an order to increase the reward for those who bring information about the hostage - NIS 5 million for each hostage instead of NIS 1 million and safe passage for the informant and his family," Netanyahu said.

The Jerusalem Post writes that "In his public comments, he stressed that Israel is willing to do small deals, by which captors would be given monetary rewards and free passage out of Gaza in exchange for releasing the hostages in their custody."

The hope is that which such a large sum, families of Hamas members tasked with hosting and guarding hostages might come forward and free the hostages. Or else, individual Palestinians who might know where hostages are being kept might step forward with the information. It could also entice Hamas members to turn on their leadership.

Defense Minister Israel Katz, IDF chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, accompanied him during the brief tour of the central Gaza area.

"The choice is in your hands, but the result will be the same. We will bring everyone home," Netanyahu said. During a Monday debate in the Knesset, he addressed the outrage by victims' families over his handling of the hostage crisis. 

IDF forces fight in Notzirath, Gaza Strip pic.twitter.com/CD7WEKQEvy

— POV combat footage (@Zoma3mk) November 17, 2024

"Demonstrations by hostage families and civilian protesters inside and outside the Knesset during the debate underscored the turbulence surrounding the several dozen Israelis believed to still be alive in Gaza," one report observed. "Multiple individuals were escorted out of the meeting due to outbursts and disruption."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:20

SpaceX Launches Starship Into Orbit, Lands Successfully But Scraps Plan For "Chopsticks" Booster Catch

Update: Disappointing those who had hoped to see the "chopsticks" catch in action for the second time in a month, the Super Heavy booster instead splashed down in the ocean after it was deemed unsafe to attempt the remarkable midair catch today.

BREAKING: Space X Super Heavy booster makes offshore splashdown after it was deemed unsafe to attempt the "chopstick" catch. pic.twitter.com/h3kTy07mEp

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 19, 2024

To all those who bought the "No" contract on Polymarket for the chopsticks catch, congratulations on your 4x return.

Otherwise, everything was successful, and SpaceX’s gargantuan Starship rocket blasted off from South Texas in a key test attended by President-elect Donald Trump.

SpaceX’s launch system, comprised of its Super Heavy booster and Starship upper spacecraft, cleared the tower shortly after 4 p.m. local time on Tuesday, the start of a roughly hour-long planned mission to space and partially around the world. After Super Heavy landed in the Gulf of Mexico, Starship continued its voyage through space. At one point, it successfully reignited one of its Raptor engines — the first time SpaceX was able to do so during these flight tests. Starship will need to reignite its engines in order to control its descent to Earth and maneuver through space.

Starship then circled most of the globe before plunging through the atmosphere about 45 minutes into the mission, its body engulfed in the reddish orange glow of plasma as its upgraded heat shield endured intense temperatures while hurtling back to Earth.

Starship survived the reentry, moving its exterior flaps to help guide its descent, though some showed signs of burn and slight damage. Then, as Starship fell through clouds, it flipped itself and reignited its engines to turn upright and softly splash into the Indian Ocean shortly after 6 p.m. New York time in what Elon Musk said was a "successful ocean landing."

Successful ocean landing of Starship!

We will do one more ocean landing of the ship. If that goes well, then SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower. https://t.co/osFud7XXPo

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 20, 2024

 

* * *

Earlier

The sixth flight test of SpaceX's Starship megarocket is targeted to launch during a 30-minute window that opens at 5 PM EST (2100 GMT; 4 PM local Texas time). 

The next Starship test flight aims to push the envelope of Starship and booster capabilities and prepare the entire launch system for reuse. 

"Objectives include the booster once again returning to the launch site for catch, reigniting a ship Raptor engine while in space, and testing a suite of heatshield experiments and maneuvering changes for ship reentry and descent over the Indian Ocean," SpaceX's website wrote. 

Elon Musk outlined Starship Flight 6's objectives on X:

The objectives for Starship Flight 6 are:

1. Restart of Raptor engines in vacuum.
2. Daylight landing of the ship.
3. Higher peak heating (steeper) reentry.
4. Faster/harder booster catch.

There are thousands of small design changes also being tested.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 19, 2024

Musk pointed out, "Current Starship is more than twice as powerful as the Saturn V Moon rocket. Starship V3, which hopefully flies in about a year, will be 3X more powerful."

Current Starship is more than twice as powerful as the Saturn V Moon rocket.

Starship V3, which hopefully flies in about a year, will be 3X more powerful. https://t.co/K0p8HuXH3b

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 19, 2024

Even before the two-stage megarocket — featuring the Starship spacecraft stacked atop the Super Heavy booster — launches late afternoon, prediction market platform Polymarket has allowed users to wager on whether the Mechazilla arms (or chopsticks) at the Starbase launchpad near Brownsville, Texas, will successfully catch the Starship as it returns to Earth.

Last month's Starship Flight 5 marked a historic success.

Starship rocket booster caught by tower pic.twitter.com/aOQmSkt6YE

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 13, 2024

The Polymarket bet is titled "Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?" With about seven hours left before launch, users overwhelmingly bet confidently (about 80%) that chopsticks will successfully catch Starship. About $286k have traded on the contract so far. 

Polymarket has made betting on binary events in the news cycle possible. 

Watch the sixth Starship flight test:

Meanwhile, Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX, told investors last Friday that the company plans hundreds of Starship rocket launches during President Trump's second term.

There is a report from Politico that President-elect Trump plans to watch the Starship launch with Musk in Texas.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:10

Guess What's Coming To DC?

Authored by El Gato Malo via The Brownstone Institute,

DC is about to experience something entirely new, something absolutely unprecedented in its experience. They think the barbarians are coming. And perhaps they are. But not the kinds of barbarians they suspect. Not this time.

The simple fact is that there exists a very small group of incredibly high-function, insanely productive people. It’s the dirty secret of the world. This tiny tribe conceives, invents, and builds basically everything novel. All of it. They are not normal people. They are the 0.1%.

Unless you have worked with them, around them, or been a part of what they do, you simply lack a reference for what they are like. It’s essentially inconceivable how much such people can get done when they set their minds to it, how many rules they will disprove, break, or ignore, and how many paradigms they will upend.

DC has never seen a mob of high-function autist builders and fin warriors coalesce before. They have no fricking idea what’s coming. They cannot possibly know. But I do.

I know A LOT of these people. This is what most of my friends are like. They learn for a living. They pull systems apart, see them as functional wholes, and work 16-hour days reading arcane 1,000-page descriptions until they understand. Then they pull the underwear of whoever thought they understood this material up over their heads in an atomic wedgie and take over a space. 

It’s just what you do if you’re a person like that. It’s compulsion. It’s like breathing. These are 3 and 4 and 5 standard deviation people who have focus and talent in quantities they do not even have maps of in Washington. I keep hearing about people I know a little getting tapped for transition teams and I’m like “Ooooooh, that guy can read 100 CDS prospectuses in a weekend and remember it all,” or “Yeah, that guy thinks in algorithms and sleeps once a month. He could code when he was 6.”

“Only an insider can tackle the swamp” is dead wrong. It takes someone radically different to make a radical difference. And I am giddy realizing that they are coming. It does not matter that they do not know the terrain yet. They will. They have 3 months to learn. That’s more than enough.

Watch. Moving into novel systems or spaces and becoming better at it than the people currently there is what these people do. It’s ALL they do. It’s who and what they are.

It does not matter if it’s the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the DMV, or NASA. Same game, same result. every time.

The “insiders” are so screwed. DC has no one like this. They have never even met people like this because people like this avoid government like it is a bag of plague rats. Because it is.

But now they are interested and looking to play exterminator because the state strayed too far into our world and so now we are coming for theirs.

And wait until you see what the world’s best builders can tear down. It’s going to be glorious.

These are the same people who in 10 weeks using just sparse public data and Twitter pulled the pants down on the whole edifice of public health and revealed them as fakes, phonies, and charlatans. Then they rewrote the discipline. It will never be the same. Most of us had never even looked at epidemiology before. In a few months the “amateurs” eclipsed the experts and left them for dead.

We did this as outsiders and without any maps and with the very opposite of help.

Imagine what this gang can do with the keys to the kingdom.

It’s going to be nothing but baffled astonishment from the Beltway boffins.

“How in hell have they read and understood everything!?! They are not experts here!” will decry the people who need to pass bills to find out what’s in them. “How the hell are they producing so much output, so much impact? How did they know just where to push?”

They have never seen what 10 of these guys and three pots of coffee can achieve. I have. Mountains get relocated.

The really truly high-functioning have not come to meet the regulatasaurus before. They were busy and had better things to do.

Not anymore. “Dismantle Leviathan” is now a step in everyone’s business plan. Better, it’s public service as it was supposed to be: not a vocation, not a career. Instead, it is a task, a dirty task that needs doing so you go and do it and then you go home once it’s done.

You fricking clowns just cornered Elon and made this election and administration an existential issue for him and his empire. And an awful lot of us feel the same way. You cornered all of us. Go along to get along ended because you guys crossed the line. Welcome to reflexivity.

The pushback is going to be something for the ages.

DC is going to feel like it’s being invaded by an entire bestiary of mythical monsters with magical powers who can see through walls and huck immovable objects over the horizon. They will come from every side at once. They will replace thousands of federal employees right from the start. 

You’ll be fighting against the outside and the inside. They’re going to transfer and move those permanent staters they cannot fire. Have fun in Topeka or Guam. They’re lovely this time of year.

They are not going to play nice or play fair. They are going to get things done. And they are going to clown you while doing it, clown you like “name their agency after a crypto shitcoin that muskrat ran “to the moon” just because they think it’s funny.”

And it will be.

This is a new kind of team, a team that comes from an ethos of “Move fast and break things” and “Ask forgiveness, not permission.” They are not the GOP procedure drones of yesteryear, These are people who just walk in and do stuff and fuck your process. They have made careers of it.

The Dems have long ago figured out the “Just go do it and let the chips fall where they may” model (basically since Obamacare) but they do it stupidly and on topics where the results will be bad. 

This will be like Uber. By the time the regulators woke up and tried to move against it, people loved it too much to let them take it away. There were protests in front of every DMV in Commiefornia.

And so the world progressed. And instead of doing it donkey-style to contravene the Constitution, team effective autists will be doing it to uphold it. Look on my plans ye mighty and wet your pants. This is teed up in a whole new way on a whole new field.

They will have the swamp in knots. DC power is entrenched because it is secret and controls access and channels and promotion and most especially access to media and publicity. That game is over.

Vivek is a seriously effective guy with finance and biotech and founder chops. He speaks well and makes things. And like him or loathe him, Elon is a change (and a chaos) agent. He takes crazy, audacious swings and builds stuff. He’s a rogue and a pirate. It’s why he’s good at what he does. He asks simple questions like “What did you accomplish this week?” that you cannot hide from. But his real superpower is this: there is no human on earth today who can bring the circus like Elon can bring the circus. No one.

The man is a one-man always traveling 11-ring Barnum and Bailey show. And what an astonishing show this is going to be.

Name and shame are incredibly powerful. This will be an unending media event, a drip feed of “Can you believe they spent millions making and studying transgender monkeys?” (this was a real grant BTW) 

It will be relentless, revelatory, and invite the whole of the public to the party. There will be no escape, no off switch, no media gatekeeping: this is direct-to-consumer messaging. And hey, let’s get the Epstein list out in the open while we’re at it. Imagine how much DC cycle time THAT would eat, time in which you can get even more stuff done.

Sunlight is a powerful disinfectant. 

Let’s look at everything with new eyes. Let’s disrupt.

Get the establishment on tilt from day one and never stop pushing. Not from any side, not for a moment. Shut things down. Gut agencies like trout. Invite them to “cry some more” if they don’t like it.

Flood the box so hard that the news cycle cannot even cover it. This technocracy is not used to having to defend ground from this sort of attack. They are used to being the ones making the rules. They will not have any idea what to do.

There are these magical times in human history when the truly smart and talented and effective come together and change everything. American independence. The Manhattan Project. Xerox PARC. Apollo. Silicon Valley in the 80’s and 90’s.

Some vast project captures the imagination and worlds are moved.

I think it’s a bit early to just come out and say “This is that” but I’m here to tell you that the cabinet secretaries and the appointments to run agencies are only a part of the show and maybe not the important part.

The thousands coming with them are NOT more drones from interchangeable bureaucrat collective 2177.

These are the finance and pharma and tech bros. Not the fake ones who wear fleece vests and work in biz dev. The meat eaters. Wave upon wave upon wave of them in their hyper-motivated myriads.

And this is a new-new thing.

In the end, it’s just a gross mismatch for you, DC.

You’re smart enough to be a Washington wonk and run rings around drunk Congresscritters as they insider trade. Neat. What’s coming is smart enough to find edge trading against the Goldman arb desk and produce drugs and catch rockets.

We live where you need results, not a sinecure. And we are well and truly pissed. You people are not even bringing a knife to a gunfight. You’re bringing a dinosaur to a meteor strike.

Say goodbye to the Potomac Country Club. Things are about to change. And pardon me if I am over-effusive and over-optimistic, but if this is even 20% of what it looks like, hot damn this is gonna be fun.

Republished from the author’s Substack 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:00

The Cure For What Ails Us: Market Crash And Mass Defaults

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The system has reached extremes that can no longer be rebalanced by policy tweaks, borrowing another couple trillion dollars or inflating asset bubbles.

There are many possible answers to the question "what ails us?" but they all boil down to one reality: the socio-political-economic system has slowly transmogrified into one that benefits the few at the expense of the many by its very structure. There are many moving parts in this transmogrification, hence the multiplicity of answers to "what ails us?"

The net result is extreme asymmetry in wealth and income, a reality I've often explored, most recently in The Seeds of Social Revolution: Extreme Wealth Inequality. As documented in the data-rich history The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century, extreme asymmetries of wealth / income get rebalanced one way or the other, either by policy changes or social upheaval.

Correspondent John recently proposed a third rebalancing mechanism: a crash of The Everything Bubble markets and a mass default by the bottom 90% that erases a major chunk of debt, which as often noted here, is somebody else's asset: default on the debt and the asset is wiped out.

Here are John's comments on this third rebalancing mechanism:

The wealth divide has been my (very) hot button issue for years, overriding all others. I agree with your two options, but you left out door #3.

As for policy change, I think that is fanciful thinking. The top 10% (who think everything is wonderful) will never vote for substantial change, as they'll never vote for anything other than feel-good minor change ...with loopholes, of course.

I think Door #3 will be taken ... which the Deep State will have to allow as they see civil unrest coming ever clearer on the horizon if not. What is Door #3? A Crash of assets, which will flatten the divide. In a credit-based economy, it will be easy to let it all fall. Assets fall everywhere ... including debt (an asset for top 10%) as the bottom 90% just walk away (as there are no debtor prisons). A crash of assets requires no vote ... just The Powers That Be standing back. (Of course, half measures will be taken to show the top 10% we're DOING SOMETHING ... but in reality this only stretches out the collapse).

Thank you, John, for an insightful description of a third option that rebalances extreme wealth inequality by reducing the assets of the top 10% and the liabilities of the bottom 90%. As John noted, this process is easy in a debt-based economy: just reduce the expansion of debt and the asset bubble pops, the economy craters and debtors default en masse, reducing the liabilities side of the ledger.

As John so presciently described, The Powers That Be will oversee this reduction while wringing their hands and promoting their ineffective efforts to stem the collapse as "we're giving it all we got, Captain!"

The asset bubble and debt load are so enormous, tens of trillions of dollars will need to be shaved off both ledgers to rebalance the system. All bubbles pop under their own weight at some point, and bubbles often deflate in a symmetrical fashion, dropping at the same rate as the bubble inflated. This chart of NASDAQ illustrates how bubble symmetry might play out going forward.

Since the top 1% own 50% of all stocks, guess who this drop will hurt the most? The top 90% to 99% own close to 40% of the remaining equities, so the top 10% will absorb roughly 90% of the losses as the stock market bubble pops.

Here is total systemic debt. The federal government debt isn't going away, short of a complete systemic collapse, and the legal pathway of local governments defaulting on their debts is murky, but there are no obstructions to private-sector defaults of all lender-generated debt: commercial real estate mortgages, housing mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, etc. As for student loans, the old phrase you can't get blood from a turnip may describe the futility of trying to collect blood (student loan payments) from turnips (debtors without assets or income.)

We can play the game Japan has played for 35 years, keeping non-performing loans on the books at full (i.e. phantom) value, but look where that artifice got Japan: 35 years of stagnation as everyone knows the "assets" are phantom and so the value can't be discovered by the market. Since accurate valuation is impossible, trust dissipates and the system rots away from within.

As a thought experiment, let's project writing off $50 trillion of debt based on phantom collateral that's evaporated. That is of course a writedown of assets by $50 trillion, too, which would reduce household assets to around $100 trillion--still substantial, just no longer a bubble.

The system has reached extremes that can no longer be rebalanced by policy tweaks, borrowing another couple trillion dollars or inflating asset bubbles. What ails us can be rectified by adjusting (ahem) assets (collateral) and debt to rebalance the extremes that are destabilizing the system from within.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 16:20

Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As Markets Mull Moscow, Mullahs, Musk, & Macro

Geopolitics, macroeconomics, and domestic politics all combined for a wile ride in stocks today...

Geopolitics was a major headwind overnight as Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in the event of a massive conventional attack on its soil. But, then that reversed as headlines suggested Iran is looking to de-escalate (IRAN AGREES TO STOP PRODUCING NEAR BOMB-GRADE URANIUM: IAEA).

All of that prompted a roller-coaster in stocks with Nasdaq ending the best (and Small Caps recovering dramatically from overnight weakness). The Dow desperately tried to get green but failed (even with help from WMT)...

Then Musk sparked some chaos in media stocks as he tweeted: "No advertising for pharma"...

Source: Bloomberg

Shorts were squeezed today from the cash open...

Source: Bloomberg

Mega-Cap Tech rallied significantly on the day, bouncing off pre-election levels ahead of tomorrow's NVDA earnings...

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was higher on the day with tomorrow's risk event priced in (though less than typical for an NVDA earnings day)...

Source: Bloomberg

US Macro data disappointed - housing starts and permits were ugly - which helped pull bond yields lower (along with chatter about potential 'safe' picks for Treasury Secretary)...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin continued its charge higher, topping $94,000 - a new record high in USD terms...

Source: Bloomberg

...and coming within a few points of an all-time record high against gold...

Source: Bloomberg

...even as gold started to rally back from its post-election doldrums too...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices dipped on the Iran headlines but overall it appears geopolitical uncertainty is adding some premium back into the energy complex...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, US equities are currently pricing a very optimistic growth environment...

Source: Goldman Sachs

Goldman's sector model leads them to recommend overweight positions in Materials, Software & Services, and Utilities. From an investment strategy perspective, they invoke the dictum of Donald Trump to “protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 16:00

No Apology Can "Undo The Damage" Gary Gensler Has Caused...

Authored by Ciran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

Gemini exchange co-founder Tyler Winklevoss has asserted that the harm inflicted on the cryptocurrency industry by Gary Gensler, Chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is irreparable. This statement comes amid growing speculation that Gensler might step down from his position.

“Let’s all be clear on one thing. Gary Gensler is evil,” Winklevoss declared in a Nov. 15 X post.

“He should never again have a position of influence, power, or consequence,” Winklevoss added.

Winklevoss’ remarks follow growing optimism among crypto market participants that Gensler, a well-known crypto skeptic, may resign after Trump’s win in the US presidential election on Nov. 5.

Gensler’s behavior cannot be excused as “good faith,” Winkelvoss claims

Winklevoss claimed that Gensler’s behavior cannot be excused as “good faith mistakes” before arguing that it was “entirely thought out, intentional, and purposeful to fulfill his personal, political agenda at any cost.”

Source: Tyler Winklevoss

During Gensler’s time as SEC chair, crypto firms like major exchanges Binance and Coinbase, Ripple, among others, have faced ongoing legal battles from the regulator. Winklevoss argued that Gensler took the regulation-by-enforcement approach to the crypto industry, showing little regard for anyone working in the sector:

“Even if this meant nuking an industry, tens of thousands of jobs, people’s livelihoods, billions of invested capital, and more, ironically, his sociopathic ambition ended up torching his own political party.”

Echoing a similar sentiment to Winklevoss, Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin recently told Cointelegraph:

“We’ve been living in a gas-lit world for a long time, generously gas-lit by the SEC.”

Backlash toward Gensler continues to grow

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor believes whoever takes Gensler’s job has the “most pivotal role” in the crypto industry.

“I think this is incredibly bullish for digital assets,” Saylor added.

Reuters reported on Nov. 7, citing people with knowledge of the matter, that Robinhood’s legal chief, Dan Gallagher, is currently the Trump team’s frontrunner to replace Gensler.

Meanwhile, on Nov. 14, eighteen US states filed a lawsuit against the SEC and Gensler, accusing the financial regulator of “gross government overreach” against the nascent crypto industry.

The plaintiffs include Nebraska, Tennessee, Wyoming, Kentucky, West Virginia, Iowa, Texas, Mississippi, Ohio, Montana and others.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 15:40

Netanyahu Signals Rejection Of Lebanon Truce: 'Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah'

Late Monday Lebanese sources had said that Hezbollah has agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire plan. But by the close of the day it became clear that Israel has yet to formally sign off. "Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting," Reuters reported.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initial reaction was to say that Israeli will still operate militarily against Hezbollah in response to attacks, even in the scenario a ceasefire deal is reached. This seems to reflect a belief that Hezbollah won't uphold its end of a potential ceasefire even if formally enacted.

"The most important thing is not (the deal that) will be laid on paper," Netanyahu told the Knesset. "We will be forced to ensure our security in the north (of Israel) and to systematically carry out operations against Hezbollah’s attacks… even after a ceasefire."

TOI/Israel Police image: Emergency responders at scene of a deadly Hezbollah rocket impact in Shfar’am, northern Israel on Monday.

"Even if there is a paper [setting out an agreement], worthy though it may be, we will be required, in order to ensure our security in the north (of Israel), to systematically carry out operations — not only against Hezbollah’s attacks, which could come."

He continued, "Even if there is a ceasefire, nobody can guarantee it will hold. So it’s not only our reaction, a preventive reaction, a reaction in the wake of attack, but also the capacity to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening." Netanyahu concluded by emphasizing, "We will not allow Hezbollah to return to the state it was in on October 6, 2023."

US special envoy Amos Hochstein is in Lebanon on Tuesday, where he's described "very productive" meetings with top Lebanese officials. He says that a deal to end the fighting is "within our grasp". Hochstein is expected to be in Israel by Wednesday.

Lebanese officials are now saying the ball is in Israel's court. Currently an Israeli ground offensive is still active, and Beirut has been heavily pummeled by Israel's aerial offensive, which has also reached into central and northeastern Lebanon of late, especially the Bekaa Valley.

But the skepticism expressed by Netanyahu is rooted in the long-running demand that Hezbollah withdraw its forces to regions north of the Litani River, in order to establish an indefinite buffer zone. Israel also wants its military to be able to patrol southern Lebanon after that point to ensure no continued missile or drone attacks on northern Israel.

⚡️More of rocket impacts in Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/QKt8u3Uws4

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 18, 2024

Hezbollah has considered this demand an impossibility, and thus this week's international reports suggesting a deal has been reached are premature. But Netanyahu has signaled he's willing to contemplate a deal ahead of Trump entering the White House.

This is especially as the last 48 hours have seen hundreds of rockets rain down on Israeli cities, some reaching into Tel Aviv shopping districts, as Israel keeps up its devastating airstrikes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 15:20

Great News Consumers: Olive Oil Bear Market Worsens As Harvests Improve 

Spain's Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil producer, stated that the multi-year drought-driven crisis, which caused prices of "liquid gold" to surge, is ending as a favorable 2024-25 harvest gets underway in Spain. This suggests that olive oil prices at supermarkets are expected to decline in the months ahead. 

Miguel Ángel Guzmán, chief sales officer at Deoleo, told CNBC, "We are still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially in the higher quality oils, such as extra virgin.

"However, the outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases," Guzmán said. 

He added, "Although there have been steps towards improvement, it would not be entirely accurate to say that the crisis is over." 

Spot prices for Spanish Olive Oil Extra Virgin peaked at 8,835 euros a ton in late January and have since tumbled into a bear market (-43.5%), sliding to around 5,145 euros by late fall. This is mainly because estimates point to improved harvests in the top-producing countries of Spain, Greece, and Tunisia. 

Bloomberg's Javier Blas pointed out, "Retail olive oil prices will follow down very soon (they have already in origin countries like Spain / Italy)." 

CHART OF THE DAY: As the 2024-25 harvest gets underway in Spain and the rest of the Mediterranean, **wholesale** olive oil prices have crashed.

Retail olive oil prices will follow down very soon (they have already in origin countries like Spain / Italy) #oliveoil #aceitedeoliva pic.twitter.com/kuEzW0gm5D

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) November 18, 2024

Here's our coverage on the olive oil crisis:

• Olive Oil Prices Soar As Top Producer Plagued With Drought
• Record Olive Oil Prices Keep Italian Pizza-Making Costs High
• Olive Oil Supply Crunch Eases As World's Top Producer Sees Harvest Jump

Great news, consumers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 14:40

Experienced Disrupters Wanted!

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Now that the election is in the rearview mirror, the focus now turns to what the next four years are going to look like in a second Trump term. From all indications, things will not be business as usual.

Trump Turns The Tables

After being inaugurated as president in 2009, Barack Obama met with congressional Republicans to discuss his economic plans. There was a lot of complaining and pushback from the Republicans, but Obama made it clear he was going to push through his programs whether they liked it or not.

In a smarmy tone, Obama told the Republican leaders, “Elections have consequences” and added, “I won” for good measure. Obama did not have many major accomplishments, but he did push through Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act) and signed many executive orders to force changes in immigration law and to implement other preferences.

The phrase, “elections have consequences” was continually trotted out to make the point that winners can do what they want.

Now, events have come full circle.

Donald Trump not only won the White House in a landslide Electoral College vote and a majority of the popular vote, but his party took control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Now it’s the Republicans who are turning the tables on Obama’s famous quote.

A Defensive Change

Take Trump’s choice for Secretary of Defense, for instance. Trump appointed Pete Hegseth, Major in the U.S. Army, combat veteran with service in Iraq and Afghanistan, winner of two Bronze Stars, and graduate of Princeton and Harvard. He is well-qualified, but not a conventional choice in the sense that he does not emerge from the swamp of the military-industrial complex. He’s a fierce opponent of “woke” policies that are weakening our military and hurting enlistments. He’s determined to force the retirement or resignation of a large cadre of generals and admirals who are more interested in political correctness than they are in combat readiness.

The Trump transition team is also creating a “Warrior Board” that will systematically review senior officers (so-called “Flag Officers” consisting of generals and admirals) to identify those who are overly political, woke, or supported former Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff Mark Milley. Many will be forced out, which is not only good for morale but also creates space in the highest ranks for promotions of deserving Majors and Colonels.

More Disrupters

Or take two of his more “controversial” picks (if you listen to the hyperventilating of the mainstream media).

Tulsi Gabbard has been nominated to be the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She is a former member of Congress and a Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army with deployments to Iraq. She received both a Meritorious Service Medal and a Combat Medical Badge. Gabbard is assigned to the Army Reserve’s Psychological Operations Command, which is perhaps the best possible background for an intelligence chief. But yet, many are screaming “no experience”!

Matt Gaetz has been nominated to be the next Attorney General of the United States. He has a first-class legal mind and excellent cross-examination skills, which will be needed in the course of prosecuting bureaucrats who committed illegal acts during the Biden-Harris years. Again, Washington and the media are panicking at the thought of Gaetz heading the DOJ.

Historian Victor Davis Hanson sums up the Trump appointments battle best:

“Many of Trump’s first-round picks share some common themes. One, many, who were in the past victimized by government bullies and cowardly bureaucratic grandees, or proved sharp critics of the administrative state, are now, in karma-style, in charge of the very agencies that hounded him. So, Elon Musk, a perennial target of government regulatory functionaries, was once policed, but now he polices the bureaucratic police. Robert Kennedy, Jr., proposed overseer of government health programs, was often blasted as a crank by the subsidized scientists and the administrators within HHS whom he will now direct. Pete Hegseth fought the military DEI machinery while a soldier in the ranks and wrote a book about the corruption of the Pentagon. He will now, if confirmed, run the Pentagon. Tulsi Gabbard was improperly put on a national security travel watch list as a supposed security threat — and now will be a guardian of our security as Director of National Intelligence. Tom Homan was derided by the Biden administration and its Homeland Security minions as a fanatic border hawk; now he will run ICE and deal with the detritus of Biden fanaticism on the border. Two, none of these appointments are traditional swamp creatures. Few rotate from the think tanks. This time around there are no retired “Wise Men” or retired four-stars. Few are Uniparty magnificoes revolving back into high government from their DC university or New York corporate and investment waystations. None are DEI, cover-our-identity-politics-base candidates. By design, their past government service resumes are thin — few past undersecretaries of these or special assistants to those. And there are not a lot of suffixed alphabetic letters or prefixed long-winded titles that adorn their names. In other words, they are vaxed from the sort of acculturated administrative state mindset that has alienated and terrified the citizenry.”

Terrified, indeed.

Trump’s selections are what is needed to clean up the stink of Washington. Trump was the new kid in town in 2016 and failed to penetrate the Swamp. This time will be different and it will be like a breath of fresh air in the Beltway.

Give Obama credit where it’s due. Elections definitely have consequences.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 14:20

Jaguar Attempts To 'Bud Light' Itself With Cringeworthy Woke Ad

British sports car manufacturer Jaguar, one of the most celebrated motorsport brands, first gained prominence in the 1950s with its iconic C-Type and D-Type sports cars, securing seven victories at the prestigious 24 Hours of Le Mans. Jag launched the iconic E-Type at the 1961 Geneva Motor Show and has since produced stylish vehicles for the general public and racing teams. 

Given Jaguar's legacy of racing excellence, their marketing team has just nuked the brand in a manner reminiscent of Bud Light's controversial ad featuring Dylan Mulvaney, a man who identifies as a woman.

Jag's new ad, published on X on Tuesday morning, is titled "Copy nothing." 

Copy nothing. #Jaguar pic.twitter.com/BfVhc3l09B

— Jaguar (@Jaguar) November 19, 2024

Yet it looks like their marketing team copied a scene from the movie Zoolander. 

The X post was heavily ratio'd, and many people were utterly baffled by how tone-deaf Jaguar's marketing team has become in an era increasingly shifting away from toxic woke ideology.

"Umm where are the cars in this ad? Is this for fashion?" X user Pixel Prett asked. 

Jag's social media team responded: "Think of this as a declaration of intent."

Think of this as a declaration of intent.

— Jaguar (@Jaguar) November 19, 2024

Someone else asked Jag: "To go bankrupt? Got it."

To go bankrupt? Got it

— LaTouraineBTS ⌚️ (@dave_watches) November 19, 2024

The internet says...

Not one vehicle was shown in the ad. Yet wokeism culture was pushed into overdrive.  

Introducing you to the future.

— Jaguar (@Jaguar) November 19, 2024

Bring back the 1990s, please. 

We all have the same question. Maybe Jag is trying to boost its DEI score for year-end purposes... 

My question exactly https://t.co/ayHMsWoR7j

— Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) November 19, 2024

Jag's inability to read the room as the wokeism tide in corporate America goes out is troubling for the brand...

• "Backlash Is Real": DEI Exodus Gains Steam Across Corporate America

• The Retreat Of DEI In Corporate America

• Insider Tells Christopher Rufo Why Boeing Killed DEI

Earlier this year, Subha Barry, former head of diversity at Merrill Lynch, told Bloomberg, "We are past the peak" of wokeism. 

To sum up, this isn't the first time Jag has had tranny issues. 

Good luck. 

... 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 14:00

"Bitcoin Can Change The World Because The World Cannot Change Bitcoin"

Authored by Mark Mason via BitcoinMagazine.com,

We often babble on about Bitcoin being an inflation hedge - as if it's some sort of financial umbrella protecting us from the monetary drizzle. But let's cut the crumpets; the real magic lies in its finite supply.

In his recent episode of The Money Matters Podcast, streamed live on 11 November 2024, Mallers didn't just hit the nail on the head; he used a sledgehammer. "Bitcoin is a solution, it is not a hedge," he proclaimed, with the kind of conviction you'd expect from someone who's just discovered tea and biscuits.

He pointed out the glaringly obvious—yet often overlooked—fact that Bitcoin is the only asset where increased demand doesn't lead to increased supply.

If everyone suddenly wants an iPhone, Apple will churn them out faster than you can say "planned obsolescence." But if everyone wants Bitcoin? Well, tough biscuits. There's a fixed supply, and that's that.

Mallers eloquently stated, "Bitcoin is the most performant asset in the world because it's the scarcest asset in the world. It's the only asset that demands a higher price for more supply." It's like trying to get tickets to a sold-out Oasis concert; the more you want them, the more you have to cough up.

He also took a delightful jab at those who think Bitcoin is just another cog in the financial machine, correlated to stocks or precious metals. It's as if he's telling us that while the world fiddles with monetary policies like a cat with a ball of yarn, Bitcoin stands unflinchingly firm.

Now, I don't know about you, but the idea that Bitcoin is immune to the whims of central banks and governments makes me sleep better at night. Well, that and a good cup of Earl Grey. The finite nature of Bitcoin means it can't be diluted, devalued, or tampered with—unlike my neighbor's opinion on my lawn gnomes.

Mallers sums it up brilliantly: "Bitcoin can change the world because the world cannot change Bitcoin." It's the financial equivalent of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object—except, in this case, the object is a decentralized ledger, and the force is our collective realization that scarcity is valuable.

So, what's the takeaway here? If you're still treating Bitcoin like an optional side dish rather than the main course, it's time to rethink your financial menu. The scarcity of Bitcoin isn't a bug; it's a feature—a rather splendid one at that.

In the grand tapestry of assets, Bitcoin is that elusive thread of gold that doesn't tarnish, doesn't fray, and certainly doesn't multiply just because we fancy a bit more bling. It's high time we recognized Bitcoin not just as a hedge against inflation but as a standalone solution to the age-old problem of value preservation.

As for me, I've decided to value two things above all: my time and my Bitcoins. Everything else is just window dressing—or, as we say across the pond, mere fluff.

So here's to Jack Mallers for reminding us that sometimes, less truly is more. And if you haven't watched his latest video, do yourself a favor and give it a gander. Just be prepared—you might find yourself nodding along more vigorously than a bobblehead on a bumpy road.

Cheers!

Watch the video:

#Bitcoin can change the world because the world can’t change #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/3WnamG8nL7

— Jack Mallers (@jackmallers) November 14, 2024

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 13:40

Pentagon Gets Rid Of DEI Evidence Before Trump Takes Office

Authored by Dmytro “Henry” Aleksandrov via Headline USA,

It was recently reported that corrupt Pentagon officials are “scrambling” to wipe all evidence of DEI before President-elect Donald Trump steps back into the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Breitbart News wrote in its exclusive article that its sources stated that the Pentagon is in “absolute disarray” with “generals scrambling” because Trump plans to fire far-left senior military leaders who pushed DEI and other woke policies instead of taking care of combat readiness.

One source compared the organization’s situation to a hornet’s nest being kicked over, adding that “DEI pages are starting to disappear off the main websites.”

“They’re being archived as we speak. They are full-bore focused on cleaning up anything DEI-related,” the source stated.

Another anonymous person said that many Pentagon employees are afraid they will be fired, stating that “they are in panic mode.”

The recent news came after Trump gathered the names of senior officers who had pushed DEI. One Breitbart source familiar with the plan said that Trump’s team drafted an executive order to create a panel to recommend those senior officers for elimination and that the executive order is “definitely” going to Trump’s desk.

“This is for real. This [order] has made the cut,” the source said, noting that the executive order could be revised and consulted with incoming leaders at the Pentagon.

According to the sources, the order plans to “reorient the U.S. military away from the woke ideology and priorities that have been foisted upon it” since the Obama administration.

“Looks as if the Department of Defense has ordered an industrial shredder. WARNING: Shredding documents is a felony. We will not accept claims of ‘I was just doing my job.’ The hammer of Justice is coming,” the Department of Government Efficiency parody account stated.

Looks as if the Department of Defense has ordered an industrial shredder.

WARNING:

Shredding documents is a felony. We will not accept claims of “I was just doing my job.”

The hammer of Justice is coming. pic.twitter.com/yjfrmVrUMf

— DOGE - Department of Government Effeciency Parody (@realdogenews) November 16, 2024

Headline USA previously reported on Trump planning to fire far-left generals en masse.

The recent news came after Trump picked Army veteran Pete Hegseth as the head of the Department of Defense, which resulted in the Left seething over the pick.

“The Pentagon is legitimately scared of [Hegseth] because of his opposition to DEI — keep in mind, the Defense Department is spending around $86 BILLION on various DEI initiatives,” Kaylee McGhee White said. “Hegseth wants to root that out.”

"The Pentagon is legitimately scared of @PeteHegseth because of his opposition to DEI — keep in mind, the Defense Department is spending around $86 BILLION on various DEI initiatives," says @KayleeDMcGhee.

"Hegseth wants to root that out." pic.twitter.com/T1zXefZptq

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) November 18, 2024

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 13:00