Trump Says India Agreed To Stop Buying Oil From Russia

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced on Oct. 15 that India has pledged to stop purchasing oil from Russia within a short period, a decision that would help cut off funding for Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

“Within a short period of time, they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a press conference.

Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave him the assurance on Oct. 15.

“That’s a big stop,” Trump said. “Now [I’ve] got to get China to do the same thing.”

Trump has repeatedly accused India and China of buying Russian crude oil and funding Moscow’s aggression in Eastern Europe.

“We were not happy with him buying oil from Russia, because that lets Russia continue on with this ridiculous war,” Trump said of Modi.

On Aug. 6, Trump issued an executive order raising the tariff rate on Indian goods entering the United States to 50 percent.

Trump pointed to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil as justification for the significant increase in levies on the nation’s exports.

In recent years, India has become one of Russia’s most important trading partners, with annual bilateral trade rising to nearly $69 billion.

The rapid increase in trade has been fueled primarily by energy purchases.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, India’s annual crude oil imports from Russia hovered at about $1 billion. But since the war began, imports have skyrocketed, reaching $25.5 billion in 2022, $48.6 billion in 2023, and $52.7 billion in 2024, according to the U.N. Comtrade database.

Experts at the Observer Research Foundation think tank estimate that India accounts for more than one-third of Russia’s crude exports, behind China’s 50 percent share.

“Indian refiners have temporarily ramped up Russian crude imports, without any visible signs of concern emerging from the political leadership,” the foundation wrote in a report.

The United States has accused India of reselling Russian oil on the open market, allegedly further benefiting Russia.

“India’s subsequent reselling of this oil on the open market, often at significant profit, further enables the Russian Federation’s economy to fund its aggression,” Trump’s executive order reads.

In December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Modi signed a flurry of trade and arms deals. Putin and Modi also signed nine agreements related to trade, research, and climate action in July 2024.

According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, the U.S. goods trade deficit with India was almost $46 billion in 2024, representing a 5.9 percent increase from 2023.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 11:45

Government Shutdown Enters 16th Day: These Are The Regions Most & Least Impacted

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

As the federal government shutdown drags on, some states are feeling the pinch a lot more than others—and the nation’s capital is the most affected region.

An Oct. 15 report from WalletHub indicates that some 900,000 federal employees have been furloughed, while another 700,000 continue to work without pay. Essential services such as air traffic control and military operations are continuing.

The data shows that Washington, DC is experiencing the brunt of the stalemate, given that 25 percent of all jobs there are related to the federal government. The District is also home to the highest number of federal contract dollars per capita, which translates to an impasse on many ongoing projects.

In addition, the capital has the second-highest number of residents enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which is still operating, but runs the risk of losing all funding if the deadlock continues much longer.

Hawaii is listed as the second most affected state, also because of its large number of federal workers. About 5.6 percent of all jobs in Hawaii are federal positions.

Real estate comprises nearly 23 percent of Hawaii’s gross state product—the fourth-highest share in the United States.

The report indicates the shutdown could have an adverse effect on mortgage processing due to staff shortages at the IRS, Federal Housing Administration, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

In addition, Hawaii has some of the country’s largest numbers of national parks.

“The latest government shutdown makes life stressful for people across the U.S., but places like DC and Hawaii, where a high percentage of residents work directly for the government or have government contracts, are getting hit the hardest,” WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo noted in the report.

“States with a lot of residents who receive SNAP benefits, such as New Mexico, also could be in a dire situation if money for this vital program runs out before the gridlock ends.”

New Mexico is listed as the third state most affected by the government shutdown, as it receives more than $6,000 per capita in federal contracts, and a fifth of its population is enrolled in the SNAP Program.

“That means an extended shutdown could lead to a big chunk of the state’s residents struggling to afford food if the government no longer has any funds available for benefits,” the report states.

New Mexico also has the seventh-highest percentage of federal jobs and the fifth-most national parks per capita.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown is estimated to cost the U.S. economy close to $400 million per day.

Other states hurt the most by the shutdown include Alaska, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Arizona.

Meanwhile, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, and New Hampshire represent the top five states that are least affected by the shutdown.

As negotiations over spending limits, foreign aid, and healthcare subsidies continue, the government shutdown has lasted 15 full days and entered its 16th day on Oct. 16.

The longest U.S. government shutdown on record lasted 35 days, from December 2018 to January 2019.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 11:05

 

My contrarian instincts often kick in when I see the crowd reaching a questionable consensus. Most of the time, what the crowd does IS the market; what they say, however, is often suspect.

Over the past few years, the crowd has expected rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts that never materialized; there were repeated expectations in 2022, ’23, and ‘24 of an imminent recession that never happened; the fears caused by market concentration seem to have also been ignored by Mr. Market.

Then there is the endless cacophony of bubble chatter.

I cannot recall ever hearing the crowd identify a bubble in real time, and then there actually a) being a bubble that b) burst soon after. By definition, the crowd creates bubbles through a combination of psychology, greed/FOMO, excess liquidity, and sheer recklessness.

Way back in 2011, I tried to create a checklist of how to spot a bubble in real-time. With the benefit of time and hindsight, it is easy to see the influence of the Great Financial Crisis on that list. It is 14 bullet quantitative points that should allow you to see if any market is exhibiting bubblicious tendencies.

Let’s go through those 14 points to see how they hold up today:

Standard Deviations of Valuation: Markets are pricey, but not Japan 1989/1999-2000 Dotcom pricey

Significantly elevated returns: The past 15 years have seen returns of 16% annually. This is the third-best rolling 15-year period since WW2, but it also follows a 57% GFC crash. The past two years 25% annually. 2023-24 certainly counts as elevated.

Excess leverage: While there are some leveraged products put there like 2X and 3X ETFs, it is hardly a meaningful amount of capital (the same was said about Subprime, but that was wildly infiltrated throughout the entirety of the financial system)

New financial products: Alts? Private Credit? Neither is so much “New” as newly popular.

Expansion of Credit: Mostly tight, not very available.

Trading Volumes Spike: NYSE average daily trading volume (ADV) is roughly 1.36 billion shares – somewhat above historical average of 900 million to 1.2 billion shares per day. NASDAQ average daily volumes has exceeded 9 billion shares through 2025.​ ADV ranges 6–8 billion shares daily, so activity this year is well above average.

Perverse Incentives: I am not aware of much here other than the land grab in alts, the huge number of new ETFs, and the return of meme stock trading.

Tortured rationalizations: These are ever-present, but there has been some uptick lately.

Unintended Consequences: Have yet to fully happen.

Employment trends: Full employment is offset by eye-watering salaries for AI engineers.

Credit Spreads: Are very tight, and make me wonder why anyone would want to own HY when IG is almost the same pricing

Credit Standards: Still tight since the GFC.

Default Rates: Low, but moving higher in autos, credit card, mortgage but especially student loan debt.

Unusually Low Volatility: VIX atr 20 is not exactly complacent; as we saw in April, VOL has been quick to respond to any issue…

So while there are some signs of bubblicious activity, it is hardly overwhelming or seriously determinative in my view. Stocks are pricey, but this seems less like a bubble and more like a later stage bull market cycle.

Earlier this year, I noted what a spectacularly underappreciated 15 years we have enjoyed. The bubble talk looks like a lot more of the same…

Remember, Greenspan’s “Irrational Exuberance” speech was December, 1996. All bull markets run further, longer, and higher than most expect…

 

 

 

Previously:
Checklist: How to Spot a Bubble in Real Time (June 9, 2011)

A Spectacularly Underappreciated 15 Years (April 28, 2025)

 

 

 

Realtime Bubble Checklist
1. Standard Deviations of Valuation: Look at traditional metrics –  valuations, P/E, price to sales, etc. — to rise two or even three standard deviations away from the historical mean.

2. Significantly elevated returns:  The S&P500 returns in the 1990s were far beyond what one could reasonably expect on a sustainable basis. The years around Greenspan’s “Irrational Exuberance” speech suggest that a bubble was forming:

1995    37.58
1996    22.96
1997    33.36
1998    28.58
1999    21.04

And the Nasdaq numbers were even better.

3. Excess leverage: Every great financial bubble has at its root easy money and rampant speculation. Find the leverage, and speculation won’t be too far behind.

4. New financial products: This is not a sufficient condition for bubble, but it does seems that each major bubble has new products somewhere in the mix. It may be Index funds, derivatives, tulips, 2/28 Arms.

5. Expansion of Credit:  This is beyond mere speculative leverage. With lots of money floating around, we eventually get around to funding the public to help inflate the bubble. From Credit cards to HELOCs, the 20th century was when the public was invited to leverage up.

6. Trading Volumes Spike: We saw it in equities, we saw it in derivatives, and we’ve seen it in houses: The transaction volumes in every major boom and bust, almost by definition, rises dramatically.

7. Perverse Incentives: Where you have unaligned incentives between corporate employees and shareholders, you get perverse results — like 300 mortgage companies blowing themselves up.

8. Tortured rationalizations: Look for absurd explanations for the new paradigm: Price to Clicks ratio, aggregating eyeballs, Dow 36,000.

9. Unintended Consequences: All legislation has unexpected and unwanted side effects. What recent (or not so recent) laws may have created an unexpected and bizarre result?

10. Employment trends:  A big increase in a given field — real estate brokers, day traders, etc. — may be a clue as to a developing bubble.

11. Credit Spreads: Look for a very low spread between legitimately AAA bonds and higher yielding junk can be indicative of fixed income risk appetites running too hot.

12. Credit Standards: Low and falling lending standards are always a forward indicator of credit trouble ahead. This can be part of a bubble psychology.

13. Default Rates: Very low default rates on corporate and high yield bonds can indicates the ease with which even poorly run companies can refinance. This suggests excess liquidity, and creates false sense of security.

14. Unusually Low Volatility: Low equity volatility readings over an extended period indicates equity investor complacency.

The post RealTime Bubble Checklist appeared first on The Big Picture.

Did Goldman Just Spot 'Peak Reddit'?

A team of Goldman analysts led by Eric Sheridan published an earnings preview note that covered the digital advertising sub-sector. What caught our attention wasn't the changes in stock recommendations, but a section further down that cited SensorTower data on growth and engagement trends across major social media platforms. 

Building on our earlier report that "ChatGPT massively reduced Reddit citations," with SimilarWeb data showing steep declines in U.S. web traffic on Reddit, Sheridan expanded on this emerging theme, citing new SensorTower data that showed both monthly active users and time spent on Reddit have peaked. 

The decline and fall of social media pic.twitter.com/woMZkCDlsN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 16, 2025

SensorTower shows Reddit's monthly user time spent in the app or website worldwide and the U.S. steadily increased since the early days of Covid, but likely peaked earlier this year, as shown in the data below... 

Data from SensorTower indicates that user growth & total time spent in app remains somewhat stable in the U.S. while seeing stronger growth in international markets and overall continuing to surprise to the upside (albeit seeing a slight deceleration towards the end of Q3). We call out four platforms that are seeing particularly strong engagement trends in Q3: Instagram (total time spent up +17% YoY and +16% YoY globally & in the U.S., respectively), Pinterest (+14% YoY / +21% YoY), YouTube (+1% YoY /+5% YoY), and Facebook ((1)% YoY / +3% YoY).

Reddit's global monthly active users have also plateaued over the past year. In the U.S., monthly active users peaked in the summer of 2024 and have since declined as users lose interest, likely hooked instead on short-form video platforms such as TikTok, YouTube Shorts, and Instagram or Facebook Reels.

The platforms that have seen the largest monthly average user growth since Jan 2021 levels are Reddit, Pinterest, and Instagram in the U.S. and Reddit, Snapchat and Instagram globally, according to SensorTower. In Q3, specifically, Pinterest, Instagram, and Snapchat are seeing the strongest global MAU growth amongst the comp set, with SensorTower data indicating average global MAUs grew +7% YoY, +5% YoY and +5% YoY in Q3 for each platform, respectively.

And where has the engagement shifted? Well, as the analysts point out, "short-form video remains a key driver of engagement growth for Instagram and YouTube." 

As we've discussed in prior research, short-form video remains a dominant theme within digital advertising and continues to be a key driver of engagement growth (time spent, sessions per day, etc.) for several of the major US platforms. To track this theme, we analyze data from SensorTower on user growth & engagement for what we consider to be the three primary short-form video platforms: TikTok, Instagram and YouTube. The data indicates that average time spent per user per day continues to increase for both Instagram (~52 mins daily in the U.S. and ~71 mins globally in Q3, vs. ~37 mins and ~54 mins in Q3'21, respectively) and YouTube (~79 mins daily in the U.S. and ~83 mins globally in Q3, vs. ~62 mins and ~71 mins in Q3'21, respectively). For TikTok, average U.S. time spent per user per day was ~78 mins/day, down from ~85 mins/day in Q3'21 and a peak of ~92 mins/day in mid 2023.

Let's take a step back with a focus on Reddit. At the start of the month, we cited Reddit's U.S. daily active users data via SimilarWeb from X user Bert Tian, who stated:

$RDDT US Website DAU (source @Similarweb ) has dropped sharply after ChatGPT massively reduced Reddit citations — traffic is not even close to early-year levels.

Multiple data vendors are all picking up the shift in ChatGPT citation patterns. Reasons still unclear, but one guess is that ChatGPT may be limiting web search for free accounts as a cost-cutting move to push monetization.

Source: X user Bert Tian

As we noted at the time, who in the AI chatbot world, including OpenAI, thought it was a great idea to pull citations from Reddit, a platform plagued with opinions rather than truth, which skews chatbot answers from end-users? Also, Reddit has a far-left hate epidemic. Even citing Wikipedia is a disaster for the pursuit of truth (hence Musk's move to launch Grokipedia).

Source: TryProfound

Why are Reddit monthly users and engagements sliding? Could users just be burnt out with endless streams of Trump headlines, or perhaps they're developing 'TikTok Brain Rot' with an addiction to short-form videos? Or are ChatGPT citation patterns helping to accelerate lower web traffic? There are many questions. 

One thing we do know: Shares have yet to recover since the Oct. 1 report about new traffic data.

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the entire report in the usual place. Chartpack is extensive, with a lot more in the report. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 10:45

The post The Trump Boom: A Legend in His Own Mind appeared first on CEPR.

Fool Me Once...

By Bas van Geffen, Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist

The US-China trade war is flaring up again, and the US government is still shutdown. But it’s also earnings season and we have AI deals, so stocks are going higher. How long will that last? And if the S&P 500 suddenly does become sensitive to the unravelling of international relations and global trade, who caves first?

According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, it won’t be the US government. They will not negotiate with China, just because the stock market is going down. That’s easy to say when markets are still going up, but will they stick to it? In any case, such statements do not exude confidence.

Bessent and US Trade Representative Greer noted that the Chinese restrictions on rare earths show that China cannot be trusted with the global supply chain: “It’s an exercise in economic coercion on every country across the world.” The Treasury Secretary concluded that if China cannot be a reliable partner, then the world must decouple.

Considering that the Chinese restrictions on rare earths will give that decoupling an extra nudge, why is the US so unhappy? At the same time, Bessent floated the possibility of a longer deferral of US tariffs on Chinese goods, in return for a delay to Beijing’s new restrictions on rare earths. If China’s supply of rare earths and magnets has been so unreliable despite an earlier agreement between the two countries, then why is Bessent willing to try again?

In the eyes of the Trump administration, things are perhaps moving in the right direction. Even if they are, things are certainly moving too fast for the US and the global economy. But remember, the stock market will not affect the US’ position in the negotiations with China. Neither will potential supply chain disruptions, or economic damage.

Nonetheless, Bessent did offer China another offramp: he suggested that, perhaps, the vice minister of Commerce had “gone rogue.” The US Treasury Secretary added that he “believes China is open to discussion,” and said he was “optimistic that this can be de-escalated” thanks to the strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi.

Trump, however, declared that the US and China are now in a sustained trade war. So, will Bessent’s suggestion of new trade truce get Trump’s approval? And are Chinese officials willing to entertain negotiations, while the US lambasts them at the same time? Will Beijing drop its own vice minister to restart the talks? China did not take the offramp provided by Trump last weekend either.

As the tensions between the US and China re-escalate, the Trump administration’s tactics are becoming less and less covert. The Dutch minister of Finance denied that there had been any US involvement in the unprecedented move to take control of Nexperia, but court documents indicate that the US had in fact warned the Netherlands months earlier that the company could be put on the entity list, subjecting it to US trade restrictions.

Add outright election interference to that. Yesterday, Bessent said that the US would arrange another $20 billion support for Argentina, as the country tries to overcome a liquidity crisis. But will that support be conditional on Milei winning the mid-term elections later this month, just like the $20 billion swap line might be? Trump has certainly suggested that: “I’m with this man because his philosophy is correct [...] And if he wins, we’re staying with him. And if he doesn’t win, we’re gone.”

But we’ll undoubtedly have another AI-deal somewhere, soon.

Equities may continually post gains, gold is too. The metal has surpassed $4,200 per troy ounce, in what has been coined the “debasement trade.” The IMF warned that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP by the end of the decade, which would be the highest since the aftermath of World War II.

The IMF suggests that governments “spend smarter,” as debt servicing costs are rising: “Redirecting public spending toward infrastructure, education, health, and research and development, without increasing overall spending, can deliver significant long-term gains in output,” which would in turn improve debt sustainability.

Yet, many countries have now realised that there are a couple more items to add to that list, including defence, critical resources, and industry.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 10:25

Trump Says He's Mulling Land Strikes On Venezuela, Confirms CIA Covert Ops

President Trump later in the day Wednesday verbalized that he's mulling a land operation or strikes in Venezuela following a New York Times report that same day which said he had authorized CIA covert operations targeting the Maduro government. 

"We are certainly looking at land now because we’ve got the sea under control. We’ve had a couple of days now where there isn’t a boat to be found," Trump told reporters inside the Oval Office when asked about the issue. Below is direct confirmation from the Commander-in-Chief:

President Trump confirms reports that he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela, marking a sharp escalation in US efforts to pressure President Nicolas Maduro’s regime https://t.co/oRfumD3eFu pic.twitter.com/iZeME55qG7

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 16, 2025

"I authorized for two reasons, really. No. 1, they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America, they came in through the border," Trump said. "A lot of drugs coming in from Venezuela, and a lot of drugs come in through the sea."

"But we’re going to stop them by land also," he added. The NYT report had made clear that the end goal would be overthrowing socialist strongman Nicolas Maduro.

We should note that by this logic, the United States would be justified in invading Mexico and waging war against other regional countries as well.

Congress has been missing in action and US Presidents have long pursued regime change in countries the US deems 'enemies' with or without the consent of the American people or its representatives.

Trump was also asked point blank if his goal is the end of President Nicolas Maduro. Trump dodged this one, responding:

"Wouldn’t it be a ridiculous question for me to answer?" Trump said. "But I think Venezuela is feeling heat."

"We’re not going to let our country be ruined because other people want to drop, as you say, their worst ... we’re not going to take them."

So far 27 people of unknown identities (or nationalities) have died in five rounds of attacks on boats which were believed to be smuggling drugs. The Pentagon has publicized these drone strikes by releasing video in each case.

It's become something that both Trump and Hegseth, as well as Vice President J.D. Vance have openly boasted about, despite Venezuela having a third world army and not much in the way of aerial defenses to speak of.

Where's DNI Tulsi Gabbard in all of this? Any pushback?

https://t.co/FFg6ty8rUc pic.twitter.com/RhoZXTKQPc

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) October 15, 2025

Washington typically picks such fights with weak or Third World countries - it wouldn't dare take such brazen action against countries like China or North Korea, which are nuclear armed and have serious militaries.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 10:05

Ill. Gov. JB Pritzker's Tax Docs Show $10.3M Income, $1.4M In "Gambling" Gains

Nothing says 'in touch with working class Americans' more than casually throwing around millions at casinos...just ask Gov. JB Pritzker...

Five months before Democratic primary voters hit the polls, Gov. JB Pritzker — Illinois’ billionaire governor and Hyatt heir — dropped partial tax records showing he and his wife pulled in over $10.3 million in taxable income last year, including a tidy $1.4 million from gambling, according to the Chicago Tribune. 

As usual, the release came with big numbers and small transparency: Pritzker’s campaign shared only the top pages of his returns, leaving the juicy details of his fortune (and those famously murky trusts) safely out of view.

The $10.3 million haul was his biggest in years, up from $3.2 million in 2023 and $2.3 million in 2022 — though still shy of the $18.5 million in 2021. Asked about the jump, a campaign spokesperson offered the usual shrug: “Certain trusts make distributions each year…”

Those same trusts paid $4.5 million to the state and $30.2 million to the feds. The Pritzkers personally kicked in another $1.6 million in federal taxes and $512,000 to Illinois.

As for that gambling income, the campaign clarified that “The Governor had winnings and losses from a casino during the year.” 

Thanks for that incredible clarification. Meanwhile, his 2026 running mate, Christian Mitchell, made a modest-by-comparison $583,600. Forbes pegs Pritzker’s net worth at $3.9 billion, up a casual $200 million from last year.

As for Zero Hedge readers, they appear to be skeptical. One responded to our Tweet pointing out this story by saying: "Kalshi prediction markets - he took the over on chicago crime."

"The gambling income is definitely not bribe money laundering. Definitely not," another responded. Said another follower: "Pritzker is gambling every time he bends over to tie his shoes."

Pritzker likes to say he’s in a “blind trust,” though experts note it’s not that blind — he still gets enough info to fill out required disclosures. He’s promised to donate any profits from companies with state contracts after leaving office.

The governor and his wife also gave $3.3 million to charity last year, doubling their 2023 donations.

All told, Pritzker’s political spending remains as massive as his fortune — about half a billion dollars so far, including over $130 million to clobber Darren Bailey in 2022. Not bad for a guy who technically doesn’t take a paycheck from the state.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 09:25

Futures Rise As Strong TSMC Results Reboot AI Optimism

Stock futures rose as an olive branch from Treasury Secretary Bessent calmed trade-war fears, while a guidance hike from chipmaker TSMC (which saw profit rise 39%) rejuvenated the AI narrative. Mood was boosted as earnings beats continue to roll in and some traders are ramping up bets for a half-point Fed rate cut by year-end. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4%, with support from technology sector earnings, driving slight outperformance by Nasdaq 100 futures which are up 0.6%. Pre-market Mag7 names are all higher with Semis seeing a bid (AVGO +1.6%, NVDA +1.2%) with Cyclicals and Defensives indicated higher but Cyclicals outperforming. Europe's Stoxx 600 also rose, with Nestlé SA jumping more than 8% after reporting a rebound in sales and unveiling plans to cut 16,000 jobs. Bessent floated a longer-term US / China truce with the current agreement set to expire on Nov 10; the rare earth restrictions are receiving pushback from G7. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp and the USD is indicated lower for the third consecutive day. Commodities are mixed with Energy leading, Metals lagging, and Ags mixed. Today we get the October Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and October NAHB housing market index (10am); Fed speaker slate includes Waller, Barr and Miran (9am), Bowman (10am), Miran (4:15pm) and Kashkari (6pm).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia +1.2%, Alphabet +1%, Apple +0.3%, Microsoft +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta +0.4%)

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) falls 9% after the computer hardware and storage company issued a full-year forecast for profit and cash flow that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
• Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) rises 2% after entering into an agreement to sell Del Taco Holdings Inc. to Yadav Enterprises Inc. for $115 million in cash, subject to certain adjustments.
• JB Hunt (JBHT) gains 12% after the transportation and logistics company reported third-quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate helped by better cost control measures.
• Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) soars 54% as two studies in its Phase 3 Essential3 program of ulixacaltamide in essential tremor met their primary endpoints.
• Salesforce (CRM) rises 5.5% after the software company forecast that revenue growth will accelerate to double digits in the coming years.
• Sea Ltd. ADRs (SE) rises 4% after an upgrade from BofA Global Research to buy from neutral, with the analyst noting that there is “strong momentum” across businesses.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rises 2% after it hiked its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year, reinforcing hopes in the longevity of a global boom in AI spending.
• Travelers (TRV) falls 4% after the insurance company reported net premiums written that came in below the average analyst estimates.
• United Airlines (UAL) slips about 1% as analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence note that the airline’s results show signs of saturation, even for its premium seats.

Futures resumed their meltup after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hiked its revenue-growth target and raised its forecast for capital spending. TSMC’s results reinforced hopes on the AI megatrend, after the chipmaker increased its revenue outlook for the second time this year, and underscored how leading chipmakers stand to be among the biggest winners from an AI investment boom that’s expected to top $1 trillion in the coming years. The market’s response showed investors remain optimistic about the corporate outlook, even as renewed trade tensions cast a shadow.

“We’re seeing that companies continue to spend, AI technology has been adopted and keeps being adopted,” said Anthi Tsouvali, a multi-asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Equities should continue to move upwards. But having said that, I don’t think that it’s going to be a straight line.”

After several months of relative calm, friction between Washington and Beijing has flared up again, with stocks seeing sharp swings as dip buyers step in following selloffs. The latest development saw Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent float the possibility of extending a pause on import duties if China halts its planned controls on rare earths.

Despite the tensions, corporate earnings have reminded investors that the fundamentals for stocks remain strong at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. Among S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings through Wednesday, 78% have beaten estimates, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Investors are getting so used to “political ups and downs, that they are now realizing that unless they hurt the earnings of companies, which are the real drivers of risk markets, then they really cannot affect equity markets,” Fabiana Fedeli, chief investment officer for equities, multi-asset and sustainability at M&G Investments, told Bloomberg TV.

The debasement trade continued with gold soared as high as $4,247 an ounce, taking gains this year to more than 60% as trade frictions and expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts lured buyers. The dollar slipped for a third day and Treasuries were little changed. French bonds underperformed European peers as premier Sebastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index also rose, with food beverage and automobile shares leading gains, while travel and insurance stocks lagged; Swiss equities outperformed thanks to a jump for food giant Nestle which soared more than 8% after reporting a rebound in sales and unveiling plans to cut 16,000 jobs. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Nestlé shares surged as much 8.2% after the foodmaker posted a stronger-than-expected increase in quarterly sales and announced plans to slash 16,000 jobs, just weeks after replacing its chief executive officer
• Nordea Bank shares rose as much as 4.1% in Helsinki, reaching a record high, after the lender reported earnings that analysts said were solid, highlighting a beat for net interest income
• CCC fell as much a 9.4%, the most in two weeks, after Ningi Research issued a short report suggesting the Polish footwear retailer’s turnaround is a falsely engineered “illusion”
• Whitbread shares slid as much as 10%, the steepest drop since May 2020, after first-half results. Analysts pointed to higher-than-expected UK cost inflation and a cut in profit guidance for the Premier Inn owner’s German business

Asian stocks advanced, led by South Korea, as investors bet on improved prospects for a tariff deal with the US.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, poised for its biggest two-day gain since April. Korean chipmakers including Samsung and SK Hynix were among the biggest contributors to the gain. TSMC also jumped before the company announced third-quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates. Key equity gauges traded higher in Taiwan and Japan while those in Hong Kong shares fell as investors turned cautious on the tech sector’s outlook. Korea’s Kospi surged 2.5% to a fresh record as hopes for a trade pact drove exporters higher. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects some outcome from negotiations “in the next 10 days,” according to Yonhap News. Meanwhile, executives from Samsung, Hyundai and other Korean firms may meet with President Donald Trump later this week, according to Korea Economic Daily. For the broader region, while the return of US-China trade tensions threatens to derail the breakneck stock rally since April, many investors are still betting that Trump will eventually back down from his tariff threats. In other specific markets, Japanese stocks rose amid eased political uncertainty over next week’s parliamentary vote to decide the prime minister. Australian stocks climbed to a record after unemployment jumped more than expected, strengthening the case for a rate cut.

In FX, dollar-yen rises as Japanese parties hash out policy talks toward possible coalition agreements. French politicians are debating ahead of no-confidence motions, which Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is expected to survive.

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across a flatter yield curve, with 5s30s spread edging back toward 100bp with bunds and gilts seening similarly steady price action during London morning. Long-end yields are richer by about 1bp, with curve spreads broadly flatter by less than 1bp, 10-year is near 4.02%. Minimal moves in European bond markets, slight outperformance in gilts at the short-end after the UK’s economy ekes out modest growth. Focal points of US session include several Fed speakers and potential for more corporate bond offerings by big banks.  

In commodities, gold touches another record high, now up $40 to $4,240/oz. Oil choppy but higher, with Brent trading above $62.

Looking at today's US economic calendar we get the October Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and October NAHB housing market index (10am); October retail sales and PPI reports and weekly jobless claims data will be delayed due to government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Waller, Barr and Miran (9am), Bowman (10am), Miran (4:15pm) and Kashkari (6pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.03%
• VIX -0.3 points at 20.31
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1209.79
• euro little changed at $1.1654
• WTI crude +0.4% at $58.53/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Bessent said the US investment boom is sustainable and just getting started, while he stated there is pent-up demand and America is open for business, according to CNBC. Bessent said the only thing slowing the US and President Trump down is the government shutdown, and he has seen numbers that the shutdown is hurting the economy by up to USD 15bln a day.
• US Treasury official said the government shutdown could cost the US economy USD 15bln per week, correcting Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent comments that estimated USD 15bln of costs per day. 
• US bipartisan group of senators reportedly discussing several different potential off-ramps involving the enhanced Obamacare subsidies, discussing the possibility of two side-by-side votes intended to end the shutdown: Punchbowl.
• US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown: Politico 
• Supreme Court on Wed sounded like it will rule against large chunks of the Voting Rights Act, potentially opening the door to a ~12 seat GOP boost in the House depending on how districts are redrawn. NYT
• Hamas said it’s handed over all the bodies of hostages that it can find without special machinery in the devastated Gaza Strip, but Israel countered it’s not trying hard enough and owes at least another dozen under the ceasefire terms. BBG
• China’s new rare-earth export curbs prompted a backlash from G-7 finance chiefs, with Scott Bessent signaling an emerging united front. Germany and Japan also said a joint response is being considered. BBG
• China Thurs morning clarified that its recent rare earth restrictions don’t amount to an outright ban and that exports will continue. "As long as the rare earths are used for civil purposes, [the exports] will be approved," a spokeswoman for the commerce ministry said at a press briefing on Thursday. Newsweek
• TSMC posted a better-than-anticipated 39% jump in profit, the latest sign of robust AI spending. It also lifted its 2025 revenue growth outlook and said conviction in the AI megatrend is “strengthening.” BBG
• India will no longer purchase Russian oil, according to President Donald Trump, a major victory in his effort to pressure Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Politico
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday warned the U.S. will “impose costs on Russia” if it does not seek to end the Ukraine war, his strongest criticism yet of Moscow and a signal of the administration’s increasing support for Kyiv. Politico
• Big investors are cutting back their exposure to riskier corporate debt, in a bet that a huge rally in recent years has left the market vulnerable to a sell-off if the global economy falters. FT
• President Donald Trump said he might go to the Supreme Court to personally watch oral arguments on whether the bulk of his tariffs pass legal muster. The Supreme Court will hear arguments Nov. 5 over whether import taxes imposed by Trump are legal, with Trump saying the tariffs are authorized under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. BBG
• Seasonal job searches jumped 27% from last year and 50% from 2023, far outpacing postings and signaling a cooling US job market, according to Indeed. Retailers plan the fewest holiday hires since 2009. BBG
• BofA total card spending (w/e 11th Oct) +3.7% Y/Y (prev. 2.2%); surge driven either by higher prices during Amazon's Prime Day amid tariffs, or strong demand.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.
• US President Trump claimed that South Korea signed a deal to make an "upfront" payment of USD 350bln to invest in the US, while it was also reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent said that South Korea and the US can resolve their differences over how to implement Seoul's USD 350bln investment pledge, and that he expects "something" to come "in the next 10 days", according to Yonhap.
• South Korean Presidential Policy Chief noted optimism when asked about tariff talks with the US, while South Korea's Finance Minister said the US may accept South Korea's proposal in tariff talks, according to Yonhap
• Mexican Economy Minister Ebrard said Mexico is in talks with the US to discount tariffs on heavy truck parts.
• Federal officials said they have found no evidence of widespread undervaluing of imported appliances after Whirlpool (WHR) last month accused its rivals of possible tariff evasion, according to WSJ.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak responds to US President Trump's remarks on India: says Russia continues to collaborate with partners, and Novak is confident partners will continue to work with them.
• China's Commerce Ministry said it took a constructive stance during recent US-China trade talks. Says rare earth export controls are different to an export ban. All licence applications for civilian use will be approved.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained despite a choppy performance as US-China frictions remained in focus. ASX 200 printed a record high with most sectors in the green amid a softer yield environment, which was facilitated by a rise in unemployment. Nikkei 225 climbed higher and was unfazed by disappointing Machinery Orders and comments from BoJ hawk Tamura. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged behind regional peers amid US-China frictions, and with the Hong Kong benchmark
underperforming amid weakness in Chinese tech stocks, while it was also reported that the FCC is to expel Hong Kong Telecom from US networks.

Top Asian News

• BoJ, PBoC and BoK governors held a tripartite meeting on October 15th in Washington, which BoJ Governor Ueda chaired, while they exchanged views on recent economic and financial developments.
• BoJ's Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral and the growth rate of Japan's economy is likely to rise, with overseas economies returning to a moderate growth path. Tamura said don't need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks, but stated that there is a strong possibility that the slowdown in overseas economies will not be as significant as initially expected. Furthermore, he said given upside price risks, the BoJ should push up rates closer toward neutral to avoid being forced to hike rates sharply in the future. BoJ's Tamura declined to comment when asked whether to propose a rate hike at the October meeting, while he stated he believes it is necessary to adjust the degree of monetary easing to make rate closer to neutral rate. He added a weak JPY could accelerate upward price pressures.
• RBA Assistant Governor Kent noted signs that financial conditions are less restrictive after past rate cuts and said the cash rate is within the range of neutral estimates, but the range is very wide and uncertain, while he added that neutral rates are not a suitable guide to the near-term path of monetary policy.
• Japan's Innovations Party, Fujita says another round of discussion with the LDP will take place this Friday . Both parties have found a lot of common ground. Not certain that a deal will be ultimately reached

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened broadly modestly firmer, and have traded sideways throughout the morning. A brief slip seen in the earlier part of the morning, with no clear driver. Thereafter, indices picked up off worst levels amidst constructive trade-related commentary from the Chinese Commerce Ministry; it noted that "All licence applications for civilian use will be approved". European sectors are mixed . Consumer Staples has been boosted by post-earning strength after it reported decent Q3 metrics and announced job cuts. Elsewhere, Consumer Discretionary has been hampered by some downside in Luxury names; LVMH and Kering both received downgrades, with downside also likely some profit-taking after Wednesday's considerable upside.

Top European News

• French PM Lecornu suvives 1st round of no confidence motion; with 271 lawnmakers voting against the government (vs 289 thresold to oust government).
• IFS writes that Chancellor Reeves would need to raise the fiscal buffer to around GBP 50bln vs the GBP 9.9bln she had in March, in order to have a better than 50-50 chance of avoiding additional tax increases and/or spending cuts, according to Bloomberg.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to launch an initiative next week with 20 of the UKʼs largest pension funds, which will try to make it more seamless for pension funds to back British infrastructure and growth projects, according to FT.
• ECB's Dolenc says rates should hold steady unless new shock hits, inflation risks are balanced, growth on a solid path.
• Swiss Government forecasts: Higher US tariffs have further clouded the outlook for the Swiss economy; forecast reflects expectations of a weak second half of 2025 and is based on the assumption that international tariffs will remain at current levels.

FX

• DXY is a touch lower with the USD overall showing a mixed performance vs. peers. The US macro narrative remains fixated on the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China with the latest salvo from Trump being that, if the US doesn't have tariffs, they don't have national security. For now, the focus for the market is whether this is merely a negotiating tactic by Trump or a genuine intention to squeeze the Chinese economy. The US government remains shutdown and as such, tier 1 data points are lacking. For today's agenda, the Philly Fed Business Index is due following yesterday's solid NY Fed Manufacturing print. Elsewhere, the speaker slate includes Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari. DXY hit a WTD low overnight at 98.41 before trimming losses.
• EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD in the run-up to the no-confidence votes in French PM Lecornu. The first motion put forward by the far-right National Rally (RN) will likely fail, as RN and the Union for Democratic Change (UDR) are the only major parties that are backing it. The second motion, put forward by the far-left, La France Insoumise (LFI), has a greater potential to pass given that it could see support from both the Left and the Right. If Lecornu survives, there will likely be some additional reprieve for the EUR and a narrowing of the GE/FR spread. If he falls, odds of fresh legislative elections will rise. Elsewhere, ECBʼs Lane, Lagarde, Wunsch and Kocher are due to give remarks later. EUR/USD has been as high as 1.1675.
• JPY is fractionally firmer vs. the USD with the pair extending above the 151 mark. The focus for Japan remains on domestic politics with LDP leader Takaichi scrambling to secure her position as PM. Her path to power appears to be reliant on forming an alliance with the Japanese Innovation Party (JIP) with the parties having met today and expected to continue discussions tomorrow. Overnight, BoJ's Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral. However, his comments had little follow-through to JPY, given he is the most hawkish member on the board. USD/JPY is still some way off yesterday's peak at 151.87.
• GBP is firmer vs. the USD and extending on Wednesday's upside. August's M/M UK GDP printed in-line with expectations at 0.1% with the prior revised lower to -0.1% from 0%. On the budget, the latest trial balloon from the Treasury is that taxes on the wealthy "will be part of the story". For today's agenda, BoE's Mann and Greene are due to give remarks. Cable has ventured as high as 1.3442 with the next upside target coming via the 50DMA at 1.3473.
• AUD is flat vs. the USD after shrugging off overnight losses that were triggered by the latest Australian labour market report .The release saw an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate and a smaller-than-forecast increase in employment change. Subsequently, AUD/USD slipped onto a 0.64 handle, delving as low as 0.6480 with odds of an RBA rate cut standing at circa 71%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0968 vs exp. 7.1186 (Prev. 7.0995).

Fixed Income

• USTs are slightly firmer thus far, in contrast to EGBs and Gilts . However, magnitudes are slim with gains of just 6+ ticks at most in a 113-08 to 113-13+ band. A parameter that is entirely within Wednesdayʼs 113-06+ to 113-17+ range. Thus far, the main points of focus are US President Trump saying they are in a trade war with China. Though, commentary this morning from Chinaʼs Commerce Ministry has perhaps been a little more conciliatory than we have seen in recent sessions. Ahead, Fed speakers in focus with six officials appearing a total of nine times across the day. Additionally, we await the Philly Fed manufacturing report, which follows this week's upside surprise seen in the Empire manufacturing survey, and ahead of PMI data due next week.
• OATs marginally bid as the French PM survives the 1st no confidence motion; now awaiting 2nd vote . Into the second vote, OATs trade slightly heavier than Bunds with the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread wider today and as high as 78.5bps. Of the two motions, the one filed by La France Insoumise (LFI) has a chance of passing; full Newsquawk primer available on the feed. For the motion to pass, a majority in the Assembly of 289 votes is needed. Elsewhere, no move to the morningʼs French tap which, while taken down well enough and without reaction, was a little softer than the last very strong outing.
• A slightly softer start to the day. Bunds have at most posted losses of 21 ticks at a 129.93 trough . However, this has since moderated a touch to losses of just under 10 ticks in a 129.93 to 130.14 band. Specifics for the benchmark were a little light, no supply from Germany though the Spanish tap was received well enough and spurred no discernable reaction. Elsewhere, the final Italian inflation print for September was unrevised
• Gilts opened unchanged at Wednesdayʼs 92.43 close . External leads prior to the open were a little mixed, with USTs firmer while Bunds were softer but both within reach of the unchanged mark. The morningʼs main update for the UK was August growth data. Overall, the series came in broadly as expected though the return to growth for the headline was offset by a downward revision to negative territory for Julyʼs M/M figure. The data doesn't change the narrative for the BoE of a hold in November and a cut being possible in December. With a move dependent on how the next data points print (particularly CPI) and the November Budget. On that, the Guardian adds to recent reports around taxes for the wealthiest members of society while the FT previews the launch of a pension funds initiative next week.
• Spain sells EUR 4.442bln vs exp. EUR 4.0-5.0bln 1.25% 2030, 2.55% 2032 and 3.20% 2035 Bono.
• France sells EUR 11.499bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.50% 2030, 2.70% 2031, and 0.00% 2031 OAT.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain rangebound throughout the APAC session despite increased Russian oil restrictions and rising trade tensions. WTI and Brent oscillate in a USD 58.55-59.11/bbl and USD 62.18-62.75/bbl band respectively, as markets wait for further confirmation of Russian oil export restrictions. Most recently, crude futures have dipped down to fresh lows, but lacks a clear driver.
• Spot XAU continues to climb to record levels, peaking at USD 4242/oz during the APAC session and currently trading just shy of best levels at USD 4230/oz. This comes as US-China tensions, ongoing US government shutdown and further expectations of rate cuts in the US drive the precious metal higher.
• Base metals currently trading relatively muted as trade tensions weigh on the metal space while structural challenges support the metal space. 3M LME Copper is currently oscillating in a c. USD 130/t range as the market waits for more news.
• Vice President of Transneft says companies have not reduced oil supplies to the pipeline system; have enough capacity as Russia's OPEC+ oil output quota increases.
• "Russian Energy Minister: Oil refineries will postpone maintenance work to meet market needs", according to Al Arabiya.
• UBS sees the decline in real rates, potentially into negative territory, further boosting the portfolio appeal of gold, which could rise towards UBS' upside case of USD 4,700/oz.
• Equinor (EQNR NO) says production has started at its Bacalhau field (220k BPD)
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Distillate -4.8mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline +3.0mln (exp. - 0.1mln).
• US President Trump said Indian PM Modi assured him that they won't buy Russian oil, while he added that they now need to get China to stop buying Russian oil. It was later reported that some Indian oil refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, with refiners expecting a gradual reduction in imports, according to Reuters sources.
• Saudi Aramco CEO warned of a global oil shortage if the industry fails to invest, according to FT. 
• Ukraine's military says it struck Russia's Saratov oil refinery (140k BPD) overnight

Geopolitics

• IDF says "Sirens sounding in Eilat following a hostile aircraft infiltration", via X; Eilat alarms in Israel were a false alarm, according to Al-Hadath correspondent.
• Israel reportedly gave the US new intelligence that shows Hamas has access to more of the bodies than it claims, according to Axios' Ravid, while it was separately reported that the Red Cross received the remains of two new hostages, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US senior advisor said there were very positive conversations involving the US on making sure aid reaches Gaza, while the advisor stated that stabilisation forces are starting to be constructed and that many countries have raised their hand to be part of a Gaza stabilisation force.
• "Senior Egyptian official to Saudi Al-Hadath TV: The issue of the return of the dead hostages may lead to the postponement of the next stages of the Trump plan", according to Kann News.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• US President Trump said Ukraine would like to go on the offensive in the war with Russia, while he also suggested that Russian President Putin could make a settlement.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump confirmed that he authorised the CIA to operate in Venezuela.
• Venezuela's government said it rejects the statement by US President Trump in which he publicly admitted to having authorised operations to act against the peace and stability of Venezuela, while it stated the US statement constitutes a violation of international law and the UN Charter. Furthermore, it stated that US manoeuvres seek to legitimise an  operation of "regime change" with the ultimate aim of appropriating Venezuelan oil resources.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Oct Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 10, prior 23.2
• 10:00 am: Aug Business Inventories, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Oct NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 33, prior 32

Central Bank Speakers 

• 9:00 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks at Council on Foreign Relations
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Stablecoins
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Stress Testing Research Conference
• 4:15 pm: Fed Governor Stephen Miran in Moderated Conversation
• 6:00 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Town Hall in South Dakota

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets recovered some ground yesterday as strong earnings and more positive signals on the US-China relationship helped to boost investor optimism. So that meant the S&P 500 (+0.40%) closed at its highest level since Trump’s tariff announcement on Friday, whilst US HY spreads also tightened a further -16bps. Similarly in Europe, France’s CAC 40 (+1.99%) posted its best performance since May amidst a surge for LVMH (+12.22%) after its earnings release, and the STOXX 600 (+0.57%) also hit its highest level since the Friday tariff news. So there’s been some more positivity returning to markets, with investors hoping that an escalation in the trade war can still be avoided.

Starting with that trade news, there were a few positive signals from Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday which raised hopes that the 100% additional tariffs on China wouldn’t end up being implemented. Bessent said that as far he knows, President Trump “is a go” for meeting with President Xi this month. And he also suggested that the US could extend the trade truce for a longer period if China didn’t pursue its plan to put export controls on rare earths. That said, there was little sign of backing down by Trump, and shortly after the US equity close, he suggested that the US was in a trade war with China and again signalled 100% tariffs.

This backdrop led to a topsy-turvy session, with a positive mood dominating overall as the S&P 500 closed +0.40% higher, though it had been up as much as +1.20% shortly after Bessent’s comments. The trade-exposed areas saw a clear outperformance, seemingly reflecting investors’ growing confidence that the full 100% tariffs will ultimately be avoided. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+1.70%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (+2.99%) posted strong gains, with latter also helped by positive commentary from ASML (+3.12%). So that meant the NASDAQ (+0.66%) and the Mag-7 (+0.79%) also outperformed. And there was a further boost from solid bank earnings, with Morgan Stanley (+4.71%) and Bank of America (+4.37%) both rising after their latest results.

In others news, Bessent also confirmed that he had narrowed the number of Fed chair candidates from 11 to 5, who CNBC have reported are Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. And Bessent also said that the next round of interviews would begin later in November, after which he imagines sending 3-4 names for Trump’s consideration. Bear in mind that incumbent Fed Chair Powell’s four-year term as Chair comes to an end in May, and as it stands on Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is considered the most likely to be nominated as Chair, with a 34% chance, with Kevin Warsh in second on 19%.

Against that backdrop, front-end Treasury yields moved slightly higher yesterday, as the more positive sentiment led investors to dial back their expectations for rapid rate cuts. So the 2yr yield (+1.6bps) ended the day at 3.50%, though the 10yr yield was down -0.4bps to 4.03%, its lowest in four weeks. Matters were also helped by some decent economic data, with the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey rising to 10.7 (vs. -1.8 expected). But of course, we didn’t get the previously-scheduled CPI release because of the government shutdown, which is coming out on October 24 instead. And concern about a prolonged shutdown has continued to mount, with no signs yet of a compromise emerging between Republicans and Democrats. Indeed, Polymarket odds of the shutdown lasting beyond November 16 are up to 32% after a federal judge ordered the administration to pause plans to fire federal workers during the shutdown. And we’re already on day 16 now, making this shutdown the joint-third longest with 2013. Only two others have gone on for longer, which are the 21-day shutdown in 1995-96, and the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds put in a stronger performance, in part because of lower oil prices, which is helping to ease concerns about inflation. Indeed yesterday, Brent crude oil prices (-0.77%) closed at a 5-month low of $61.91/bbl, though they are back up to $62.45 overnight after Trump suggested that India would halt purchases of Russian oil. So yields fell across the continent yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.0bps), OATs (-5.4bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all moving lower.

Meanwhile, the Franco-German 10yr spread tightened to a one-month low of 77bps, as investor expectations grew that PM Lecornu’s government would survive two no-confidence votes today. As a reminder, Lecornu proposed suspending the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election, meaning no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028. So that led the Socialist Party to say they wouldn’t vote to topple the government, which has increased Lecornu’s chances of winning. But the National Assembly remains fractured between different political groups, and all eyes will be on the result, particularly given two former PMs (Barnier and Bayrou) have lost confidence votes in the last 12 months. 

Otherwise, European equities were also relatively upbeat, with the STOXX 600 (+0.57%) advancing thanks to strong company earnings. Most of its gains were supported by the CAC 40 (+1.99%), which posted its biggest jump since May after LVMH (+12.22%) reported strong earnings. However, it was a different across the rest of Europe, with the FTSE 100 (-0.30%) and the DAX (-0.23%) both losing ground.

Overnight, the equity rally has stalled out following Trump’s comments, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.04%) basically flat. But we have seen a decent performance from several indices in Asia, including the KOSPI (+2.11%), which is on track for another record, alongside a strong advance for the Nikkei (+1.08%). Chinese equities have seen more muted gains however, with the CSI 300 (+0.33%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.10%) only posting modest gains. And over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.81%) has risen after the latest employment data for September was weaker than expected, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% (vs. 4.3% expected). In turn, that’s led investors to price in a growing chance of a rate cut at the next RBA meeting, with futures now suggesting a 63% probability of a cut in November, up from 36% yesterday. So that’s led to a rally for government bonds too, with the 10yr yield (-4.8bps) down to 4.16%, and the Australian dollar has weakened -0.35% against the US dollar.

To the day ahead now, and we’ll get UK August monthly GDP, Italy’s August trade balance, Eurozone August trade balance, Canada September existing home sales, housing starts. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Waller, Barr, Bowman and Miran, and the ECB’s Lagarde, Kocher, Wunsch and Lane. Notable earnings for today include Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 08:37

"World Is Changing": Nestlé Shares Surge Most Since 2008 After Announcing Plans To Cut 16,000 Jobs

Shares of Swiss food giant Nestlé SA jumped more than 8% in Switzerland today, marking the largest intraday gain in 17 years. This followed the company's announcement of an acceleration in its turnaround efforts, including aggressive restructuring measures such as slashing 16,000 jobs, or about 6% of its global workforce, over the next two years.

"The world is changing, and Nestlé needs to change faster. This will include making hard but necessary decisions to reduce headcount over the next two years, Nestlé CEO Philipp Navratil wrote in a statement.

The restructuring is part of a broadened cost-savings plan targeting $3.7 billion by 2027, paired with an earnings release that showed stronger-than-expected Q3 sales growth of 4.3%.

The news sent Nestlé shares surging 8.25%, the largest intraday surge in October 2008.

On the year, shares are up 10% after being nearly halved since peaking in late 2021. Shares recently bounced off late 2016 lows.

Wall Street analysts welcomed new signs of improvement in Nestlé's Real Internal Growth. Nestlé also reiterated its guidance.

Here's what Wall Street is saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

RBC (sector perform)

• Analyst James Edwardes Jones says this update could be the one that shows Nestlé is on the path to "rehabilitation" in RIG, noting a strong 120bps beat on this metric

• Nespresso saw the strongest beat in 3Q, while Nestlé Health Science growth was also a meaningful beat

• Maintaining of guidance is as expected

Morgan Stanley (underweight)

• Results are a "step in the right direction," with RIG +1.5% vs consensus at 0.3%, analyst Sarah Simon writes

• However, still some drag effects from China, and notes that 4Q will face some tougher comparisons

• Welcomes the higher cost savings ambitions and says this "suggests a greater sense of urgency to resolve underperforming areas"

Vontobel (buy)

• 3Q faced relatively easy comps, but Nestlé definitely delivered on RIG, which has been a key focus, analyst Jean- Philippe Bertschy says

• Beyond the numbers, CEO comments help put Nestlé on the "offensive" and seemingly heading in the right direction

Jefferies (hold)

• Step up and transparency on cost savings is welcome, alongside better-than-expected results, according to analyst David Hayes
• Remains some concern that 4Q growth will step down, showing still plenty more to do, but this is a good start

Analysts hold 11 "Buys", 12 "Holds" and 1 "Sell" on Nestlé with an average 12-month price target of 85 CHF.

. . .

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 08:25

Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st.

In 2005 and 2006, I was researching previous housing bubble / busts to try to predict what would happen following the bursting of the housing bubble.

So, in April 2008, when many pundits were calling the housing bottom, I wrote: Housing Bust Duration

After another year (or two) of rapidly falling prices, it's very likely that real prices will continue to fall - but at a slower pace. During the last few years of the bust, real prices will be flat or decline slowly - and the conventional wisdom will be that homes are a poor investment.

The Los Angeles bust took 86 months in real terms from peak to trough (about 7 years) using the Case-Shiller index. If the Composite 20 bust takes a similar amount of time, the real price bottom will happen in early 2013 or so.

And then in February 2012 I wrote: The Housing Bottom is Here

There are several reasons I think that house prices are close to a bottom. First prices are close to normal looking at the price-to-rent ratio and real prices (especially if prices fall another 4% to 5% NSA between the November Case-Shiller report and the March report). Second the large decline in listed inventory means less downward pressure on house prices, and third, I think that several policy initiatives will lessen the pressure from distressed sales (the probable mortgage settlement, the HARP refinance program, and more).

And in March 2013, I wrote about the two bottoms - one for activity and the other for prices: Housing: The Two Bottoms

I pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment, and the second bottom is for house prices.
...
[I]t appears activity bottomed in 2009 through 2011 (depending on the measure) and house prices bottomed in early 2012.

DC Judge Lets 'Big Balls' Attackers Walk Free

A Washington DC judge, Kendra Biggs, has let two teens who attacked former DOGE staffer 'big balls' walk free on probation, avoiding jail time because the judge feels her job is to 'rehabilitate' and not punish. 

Edward 'Big Balls' Coristine

The decision drew sharp criticism from President Trump, who said Wednesday afternoon; "That's terrible," adding "the judge should be ashamed." 

The defendants, both 15-years-old, pleaded guilty to various charges related to the attack on the 19-year-old Musk protégé, Edward Coristine. 

BREAKING - DC Judge Kendra Briggs has allowed the two “teens” who jumped Edward ‘Big Balls’ Coristine to avoid jail and sentenced them to simple probation, stating her job is to “rehabilitate,” not punish. pic.twitter.com/7LRv7fVbQP

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) October 15, 2025

The male pleaded guilty to attempted robbery and simple assault - and felony assault and a robbery at a nearby gas station in a separate incident. The female attacker pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of simple assault for pepper-spraying someone in the separate gas station incident - for which prosecutors agreed to drop the assault charge from the 'big balls' incident. 

Via WaPo

US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro said the decision to sentence the pair to probation was "shocking."

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt lamented on "The Charlie Kirk Show," "One of the big issues in D.C. is these juveniles, they just get a slap on the wrist," adding "This administration has a completely different philosophy. We need law and order."

The two teens were part of a group wreaking havoc along a busy nightlife corridor in D.C. about a mile from the White House in the early hours of Aug. 3. No other juveniles have been charged. -WaPo

"The two of you were together with a larger group of younger people who decided to basically terrorize U Street," Biggs told the teens during a hearing at DC Superior Court Tuesday afternoon. 

The night of the incident, the two teens approached Big Balls and another person on Swann Street in Northwest Washington in the predawn darkness. 

"Let me get your car! Let me get your car," said the teens. While Coristine's friend was able to jump in the car and lock the doors, the teens beat the shit out of Big Balls. 

In a Wednesday night post on X, Coristine posted "This senseless crime must be stopped," adding that many of the people involved in the attack remain on the streets, unprosecuted. 

"That night could’ve gone far differently. Think of your daughters and mothers," he wrote. "The same group attacked people before and after us, breaking ribs and stomping heads."

The teens must perform 90 hours of community service, stay away from each other, and stay out of cars unless they have the owner's permission. 

Lol. LMAO even. 

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Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 06:45

My morning train WFH reads:

• Worried About the Market? 5 Big Risks and How to Hedge Them. As the market hits new highs, some investors are losing faith. What to do to ease your fears. (Barron’s)

• What Hamburger Helper Knows and GDP Misses: Individual behavior — like millions of decisions about what to have for dinner — is often a better economic indicator than fancy government reports. (The Daily Economy) see also What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy: Box demand touches nearly every industry, from flat-screen TVs to packaged food, all of which see sales fluctuate based on how flush shoppers feel. (Businessweek)

• FTAV Q&A: Jim Chanos: Wall Street’s most famous short seller on the First Brands fiasco, Enron and the “magical machine” in private credit markets. (Financial Times)

• Grocery Prices Keep Rising. Frustrated Consumers Are Trying to Adapt. Record beef prices and coffee that costs $1 more per pound since May have shoppers cutting back on some foods, stockpiling others. (Wall Street Journal)

• I tracked Amazon’s Prime Day prices. We’ve been played. I would have saved, on average, almost nothing. Here’s what you should do to actually get a good deal on Amazon. (Washington Post)

• Don’t trust AI jobs predictions, says Wharton expert Ethan Mollick: ‘No one knows anything.’ Some evidence of workplace productivity gains from gen AI are emerging, but he says the larger truth is that we still know very little about AI, the job market, and future use cases, and that goes for the biggest AI companies, too. (CNBC)

• Your Genes Are Simply Not Enough to Explain How Smart You Are: Seven years ago, I took a bet with Charles Murray about whether we’d basically understand the genetics of intelligence by now. (The Atlantic)

• Say farewell to the TiVo box, the device that revolutionized how we watch television: Say farewell to the TiVo box, the device that revolutionized how we watch television (Los Angeles Times)

• Is Kansas City Still the Barbecue Capital of America? For the past few decades, the national spotlight has been on the Carolinas and Texas. But the most influential barbecue town may just be Kansas City.  (New York Times)

• Taylor Swift’s new album smashes sales records in first week: Success of ‘The Life of a Showgirl’ unprecedented in era of declining music purchases. (Financial Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.  Named “Best Market Strategist” by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, she is also on Barron’s “100 Most Influential Women in Finance” every year since the list’s inception.

 

BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF is on the cusp of $100 billion in assets, a milestone it will have achieved in less than two years

Source: Sherwood

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Iraq Sets Deadline To End Dependence On Iranian Gas, Under US Pressure

Via The Cradle

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said he aims to end Iraq’s $4-billion dependence on Iranian gas by early 2028, outlining a plan to recover flared gas and attract foreign investment during an interview with CNBC published Tuesday.

"We developed a clear vision to address this structural imbalance that affects our ability to generate and produce electricity and provide it to citizens," Sudani told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Baghdad.

Via AFP

He said Iraq had signed investment deals with TotalEnergies, Chinese, and Emirati companies to capture and process gas currently burned off at oil sites. "For the first time in Iraq’s history, there is a clear plan and daily action to resolve this issue, with a deadline of early 2028 set for zero gas flaring," Sudani said.

Gas supplied by Iran powers around one-third of Iraq’s electricity, yet years of neglect, graft, and inadequate investment have crippled the national grid, leaving citizens dependent on expensive, heavily polluting private generators.

Sudani said his administration is pursuing a "multi-pronged" approach, involving cooperation with Chinese, Russian, European, and US companies, alongside Gulf partners.

The prime minister said Qatari investments in Iraq have exceeded $5 billion, while Saudi and Emirati firms are financing several ventures, including a Masdar agreement to generate 1,000 megawatts (MW) of power. "Our economy and our relations have never been one-sided," he said.

However, renewed western sanctions on Iran pose new challenges to Baghdad’s energy strategy. In August, European powers triggered the snapback mechanism, restoring restrictions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. The move could further tighten Washington’s financial oversight of Baghdad, already accused of allowing Iranian-linked transactions.

According to Al-Araby al-Jadeed, senior Iraqi officials said the US is now demanding Baghdad "disengage from Iran," prosecute resistance leaders, and reform its financial and judicial systems. "The Iraqi financial sector, both public and private, is now under near-total oversight by the US Treasury," an Iraqi diplomat said.

The Coordination Framework coalition, which includes several Iran-aligned factions, warned that US pressure could serve as a pretext for Israeli strikes inside Iraq. China’s growing presence in Iraq’s energy sector reflects the same diversification drive al-Sudani outlined. 

Via AFP

On September 23, Iraq Business News reported that China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPP) signed a $2.5-billion contract with the Basra Oil Company to build a 950-kilometer seawater distribution network across southern Iraq. 

Beijing’s expanding footprint also includes TotalEnergies’ Artawi field expansion and PowerChina’s $4-billion desalination project in Basra.

Executives from four Chinese oil firms told Reuters their combined production in Iraq is set to double to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, signaling Beijing’s accelerating expansion in OPEC’s second-largest producer. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 06:30

Goldman's "6 Ps" Framework: The Forces Driving Growth & Constraints In AI Data Center Universe 

What's becoming very clear is that data center power demand is set to surge through the end of the decade, requiring vast amounts of electricity and water to keep advanced AI chips operating smoothly, powering chatbots. Goldman Sachs analysts warn that this AI infrastructure expansion will hinge on six key drivers - the so-called  "6 Ps" - shaping growth potential and the constraints facing data center buildouts. 

A team of Goldman analysts led by Brian Singer and Carly Davenport told clients that global data center power demand is set to jump 175% from 2023 levels by 2030. In other words, this increase is equivalent to adding a top 10 electricity-consuming nation to the global grid. The revision, up from a prior estimate of 165%, reflects stronger-than-expected AI server shipments, larger data center capacity buildouts, and more bullish outlooks on the digital economy. 

Those "6 Ps" that will shape the next decade of data center growth include:

1. AI's Pervasiveness,

2. AI compute and energy Productivity,

3. Electricity prices needed to expand supply,

4. Government policy incentives,

5. Parts availability, and

6. People availability for infrastructure construction and maintenance.

Data center power demand is set to accelerate.

... and focusing more on the U.S. and Europe.

Four key questions driving the outlook for AI/Data Center Power Demand:

1. Parts & People: Will equipment and labor availability constrain power infrastructure? Equipment availability will be the principal driver of sourcing power capacity growth from renewables (in particular utility-scale solar and battery storage) and natural gas peaking plants in the near term, natural gas combined cycle in the medium term and nuclear in the long term. Our outlook for labor demand suggests the need for a substantive increase in skilled workers in transmission/distribution in the near to medium term.

2. Price & Policy: Will power demand be constrained by rising supply cost of Green and non-green power options? We believe Big Tech will continue to take an all-in approach to data center power sourcing, with continued willingness to pay Green Reliability Premiums while at the same time prioritizing time-to-market. We do not believe the sunsetting of Inflation Reduction Act incentives as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will have a meaningful near-term impact on power sourcing.

3. Productivity: Will new-gen AI chips and more efficient compute usage in the latest AI models drive lower or higher aggregate power demand? We assume Big Tech cash flow/budgets will be the key constraint, leaving upside risk if there are no constraints and downside risk if compute speed or token demand are finite.

4. Pervasiveness: Will AI server demand be constrained by AI results/innovations? This will remain key to watch, particularly from a Sustainability perspective whether we see accelerated efficiency solutions in the health care, energy, agriculture and education sectors.

The analysts highlighted their favorite companies that are expected to receive "tailwinds" across the data center power demand ecosystem. The companies shown in bold are Buy-rated stocks.

The data center buildout phase is well underway in the U.S.

Every new AI chip increases computing, thus the power demanded for server racks. 

Related:

• Could AI's Growing Thirst For Water Usher In Localized Resource Wars

• Goldman Identifies "Vulnerable Link" At Center Of Energy Security

The key takeaway is that the data center buildout will be anything but linear, propelled by the AI vendor financing "circle jerk" growth drivers, but also tempered by inevitable constraints. While potential bottlenecks could weigh on AI equity valuations if they intensify, those current constraints remain manageable and are not yet posing a material threat to valuations. 

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full note in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 05:45

Climate Lunatics In Germany Want Total Deindustrialization In Just 15 Years

Authored by 'eugyppius' via 'A Plague Chronicle',

Hamburg is German’s leading industrial city.

Its companies add 20 billion Euros in gross value every year.

Much of this economic output is related to Hamburg’s happy location on the Elbe and the fact that the city is home to Europe’s third-largest port. All of this has made Hamburg extremely prosperous, which prosperity has filled it with rafts of clueless virtue-signalling morons who have no idea how anything works, why they find Hamburg attractive in the first place or how their hip urban lifestyles are maintained.

In this photo, published by BILD, you can see some of these unmitigated retards having a happy because they’ve just scored cheap virtue points by voting in their own personal energy apocalypse.

Specifically, these dumbasses are celebrating because their completely insane popular referendum passed with 53.2% of the vote on Sunday. This referendum, the so-called Zukunftsentscheid (“future decision”), binds the Free and Hanseatic City to achieving total carbon neutrality by 2040, five years earlier than the 2045 goal set by the almost equally insane Germany-wide Climate Protection Law as emended in 2021, which is in turn five years earlier than the 2050 goal established by the selfsame law as it originally passed the Bundestag in the year of the child-saint Greta Thunberg 2019.

Turnout was pretty low in Hamburg last Sunday, with less than 44% of eligible voters bothering to cast a ballot, most of them by mail. Thus just 23% of the most deranged Hamburgians could take their city hostage and commit its government to destroying all of its industry and most of its economic activity inside the next decade and a half.

The biggest joke is that when Hamburg has finally achieved the sacred Net Zero, it will make absolutely zero net difference to anything.

Hamburg is responsible for something like 0.022% of CO2 emissions globally. The city is not even a rounding error.

The referendum was an initiative of Fridays for Future, but it gathered the support of various social and environmental organisations, among them Greenpeace, the union Verdi and even FC St. Pauli. It will successively cap annual CO2 emissions sector-by-sector, imposing a slow and relentless strangulation in turn on transit, households, commerce and industry.

Consider just some of the consequences:

• All gas and oil heating systems in every last building in Hamburg will have to be changed out in the coming years. 

• The cost to landlords will be reckoned in the billions.

• Hamburg’s entire natural gas network, constructed over generations and extending to nearly 8,000 kilometers, will soon have to be decommissioned entirely.

• The city will probably have to impose on all of its streets a strict speed limit of 30 kph (19 mph) and take drastic steps to reduce traffic.

• Municipal industries must transition from petroleum coke and gas entirely to hydrogen and e-fuels, although there is hardly a market for either of these alternatives or even the hope of one.

If this law is not reversed, Hamburg will become a wasteland.

First industry will leave, and then all the people will.

Look again at this photo:

It is absolutely imperative to get these sorts of people out of politics. They are crazy and they are doing everything in their power to destroy civilisation.

They are insulated from a lot of the economic chaos they wreak because they’re overwhelmingly government bureaucrats, university types and hipsters who are to varying degrees reliant on the state to make their living. 

They’re renters rather than owners, they live near the city centre rather than in the suburbs, they’re young rather than old (h/t Apollo News for that link) and they think what they’ve done is just fantastic.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 05:00

Make It Rain: Ukraine Wants Up To $20BN In Arms From NATO Backers Next Year

European countries in NATO on Wednesday signaled their readiness to go all-in on President Trump's plan to transfer US weapons to Ukraine using allied funds. The Biden administration had basically donated most arms, but Trump's plan is to sell them, making the US role a little more indirect. But this could effectively put the most hawkish European leaders in the driver's seat related to the still ratcheting proxy war.

"Thanks to funding from allies, we are providing Ukraine with critical U.S. equipment," NATO chief Mark Rutte proclaimed as alliance defense ministers met in Brussels. "And today, we heard from ally after ally about new contributions."

Via WSJ

At this point twenty NATO allies in total are pledging support for the scheme, which aims to take care of Keiv's long-term defense needs as if faces down Russia's special military operation, possibly for years to come.

"Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands have pledged $2 billion in four separate PURL packages," Politico notes. "And on Wednesday, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Finland among others were poised to finalize a fifth package, according to three NATO diplomats, who like others quoted in this story were granted anonymity to speak freely."

As for Berlin, it said it is ready to buy $500 million worth of American weapons for Ukraine under a new program to fast-track military equipment.

Pistorius articulated that Germany's "package addresses a number of urgent requirements of Ukraine. It provides air defense systems, Patriot (missile) interceptors, radar systems and precision guided artillery, rockets and ammunition."

He stated Germany would separately provide "another two Iris-T air defense systems, including a large number of guided missiles, as well as shoulder-fired air defense missiles."

This comes also as the Zelensky government wants allies to rain money on his government and military. They've issued their wish list or shopping list, at the top of which is US Tomahawks - though it remains anything but certain whether Trump will authorize such a brazen escalation against Moscow.

The Ukrainians are poised to pounce as Western governments open their wallets, using European taxpayers' money of course. This part is nothing new.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth tries to put on a tough show of strength even as Russia is continuously ascendent on the eastern battlefield, though Moscow is absorbing losses at home as its oil infrastructure gets pummeled...

Listen to this US war hawk blabber. Has he the slightest clue what Russia’s security actually means? Moscow asked for one thing: stop NATO expansion.
The West laughed, thinking Russia was weak, bulldozed ahead, and now pays the price.
Over 21% of Ukraine is already Russian.
Play… pic.twitter.com/JcCZojF17n

— Richard (@ricwe123) October 15, 2025

Zelensky's Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal estimated Ukraine will need between $12 billion and $20 billion worth of military aid next year as part of NATO's new purchasing initiative. He specifically said this would help the country procure badly needed long-range artillery shells.

Again, all this is a recipe for dragging the war on yet further, and without end, as people die in the hundreds of thousands. All sides have essentially admitted that peace talks are dead at this point, and Trump has expressed frustration with Moscow.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 04:15

The Slowly Mounting Mineral Shock

Authored by Portia Roberts & Peter Bryant via RealClearEnergy,

China’s latest squeeze on mineral exports - and Washington’s threat of retaliation - ends any illusion that critical minerals are a niche matter. They are the scaffolding of modern society. A nearly bewildering array of minerals are essential for everything from defense technologies to EV dreams to the great race for “dominance” in artificial intelligence. Neither America, nor our allies, extract and refine enough key minerals.

The United States depends on imports for most (in some cases all) key minerals including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and especially the 17 vital rare earth elements. Without foreign suppliers, we face a shock of varying degrees, from serious to catastrophic, across all industries and services. COVID-driven supply chain disruptions provided a glimpse of what could come. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is one of a handful of non-aligned entities that looks at and advises about global critical minerals. Unfortunately, it appears that the IEA either ignores or is naïve about market-shaping realities, including those put in play last week by China. This matters because IEA’s genesis was the 1970s oil shock, tasked with brokering facts to anticipate, if not prevent another such catastrophic event in the future. Instead, IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 should earn a Pollyanna award; it assumes the kinds of needed cooperation, innovation, and capital flows are happening or will. If policymakers mistake that analysis as a blueprint, or as a rationale for inaction or action––as was done by the Biden Administration to justify the LNG-export pause—we could well learn what mineral scarcity looks like. 

China is, as is now well-known, the dominant energy minerals market-shaper. It doesn’t merely mine and refine; it finances, secures offtakes, standardizes chemistries, and wields export controls. It commands a variety of chokepoints that differ for each mineral. In other words, it wields a monopolistic-like ability to manipulate markets. Dominance in the activities that make minerals useful neutralizes efforts to diversify the sources of various minerals. It doesn’t matter if a new mine opens in the US, or a different hemisphere or continent if one country’s investment can control a significant proportion of supply. And as a result China can “dump” so much supply, long enough, into the market to collapse prices that bankrupt competition, cause unprofitable mines to be mothballed, or make planned projects infeasible. 

Nonetheless, new mines, smelters, and refineries are needed. But all face a steep uphill battle for multiple reasons, including what the IEA correctly calls "above-ground risks"—what the mining industry terms "the social license to operate" (SLO). These issues are really opportunities rather than risks, and their importance cannot be overstated. (Although the IEA Outlook understates them). If not properly engaged, dealings with local communities can stall or prevent permitting, or even slow or stop development. This ultimately adds costs, further advantaging China's producers. 

Another overlooked aspect is that it often takes decades for new sites to begin operations. Refining is an inherently energy-intensive and chemical-centric industry, a frankly dirty business. Western firms, and regulations, have long exercised due caution. But it will likely take a great deal of innovation and intense investment for new facilities to meet ever-more stringent environmental standards and costs that don’t again advantage China.

On top of that, an in-the-weeds nuance that is utterly critical: the IEA underplays the long-run decline in ore grades, i.e., the share of the rock that contains the mineral. Existing mines, particularly copper, will require ever more energy and water per ton of metal, creating more tailings waste to manage, more capital expenditure, and thus more delays. Efficiency and recycling can’t come close to doing enough to bridge the looming gap between supply and demand. 

Oil shocks cause price leaps, lines at gas stations, political fallout. Mineral shocks are slow burns, until they’re not. They might initially surface as longer delivery times, stalled grid projects, costlier products––or some with missing features. But if mineral shortages continue, if (limited) stockpiles are exhausted, markets unavoidably face price shocks.

For the United States, the solution has long been known and remains urgent: rebuild end-to-end capability at home and simultaneously, vital for velocity, work with allies (and other friendly resource-endowed countries) on such key areas as geology, mining, refining, and component manufacturing. Streamline permitting without diluting environmental standards. Use different tools such as targeted offtakes, public-private finance and defense authorities to anchor new refineries and processing hubs. And level with voters: everything starts with mining (or farming). If we won’t mine at home or overseas with trusted partners, we will continue to face economic and security fragility—on terms set elsewhere.

The IEA was founded to help prevent energy shocks, not promote policies that make them more likely. In minerals, models that minimize or ignore chokepoints and social license realities will steer the world into the very emergencies we want to avoid. We don’t need aspirational scenarios. We need mineral realism.

Portia Roberts is Policy Director for the National Center for Energy Analytics. 

Peter Bryant is Chairman of Clareo and Key Minerals Forum. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 03:30

E-Waste Is A Literal Gold Mine

This year’s International E-Waste Day, celebrated annually on October 14 to raise awareness about the growing problem of electronic waste and promote responsible e-waste management, focuses on the critical resources contained in e-waste. These days, as some of those materials have become a bargaining chip in geopolitics, it’s more important than ever to recover the valuable resources contained in unused or broken electronic products.

According to the latest edition of the Global E-Waste Monitor – a flagship publication on the topic funded and prepared by the UNITAR SCYCLE Programme, ITU and Fondation Carmignac – global e-waste contained 31 billion kilograms of metals in 2022, including approximately 4 billion kg of metals classified as critical raw materials. And it’s not just from an environmental or political perspective that it makes sense to recover the metals, but also from a financial point of view.

As Statista's Felix Richter sums up in the following chart, the estimated value of metals contained in e-waste in 2022 was $91 billion, with copper, iron, gold and nickel the most valuable components.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Only a fraction, $28 billion, of this value was recovered in 2022, however, with $9 billion worth of metals recovered in documented formal collection and recycling schemes and $12 billion (mostly iron, copper and platinum-group metals) recycled through informal routes in low- and middle-income countries.

According to the report, this is not nearly enough to balance out the negative effects of our current treatment of e-waste, with externalized costs to human health and the environment estimated at $78 billion per year.

All things considered, the authors estimate the overall impact of e-waste management to have been a net cost of approximately $37 billion in 2022 – a cost that could rise to $40 billion annually by 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario.

International E-Waste Day was established in 2018 by the WEEE Forum, an international association of organizations involved in the collection and recycling of waste electrical and electronic equipment (or ‘WEEE).

Its aim is to encourage consumers, companies and policymakers to take action in reducing e-waste, improving recycling rates and promoting a more circular economy. Each year, the initiative highlights a specific theme to inspire more sustainable habits worldwide.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 02:45

Only 3% Of Ukrainian Refugees Likely To Return In Worst-Case Scenario, Ifo Study Warns

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A new study warns that the vast majority of Ukrainian refugees living in Europe may never return home unless Ukraine regains its territory and secures Western security guarantees.

Just 3 percent of Ukrainian refugees in Europe would return to their home country in the most pessimistic post-war scenario, according to a major new working paper by Germany’s Ifo Institute.

The study, based on surveys of 2,543 refugees across 30 European countries, found that territorial integrity and security guarantees are the most decisive factors in shaping return decisions — outweighing economic opportunities and even peace agreements.

The researchers presented refugees with a range of hypothetical post-war conditions, varying factors such as Ukraine’s territorial control, NATO membership, corruption levels, and economic recovery.

They found that the difference between best- and worst-case outcomes is vast: Nearly half of refugees (46.5 percent) would return if Ukraine fully restored its 1991 borders, joined NATO, cut corruption and boosted incomes.

On the other hand, just 2.7 percent would do so if Russia retained most occupied territories, no peace deal was signed, security guarantees were absent, and the economy worsened.

“Territorial integrity is the strongest driver of return intentions,” the authors write, noting that restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders raises the average probability of return by 10.8 percentage points compared to scenarios where Russia retains control. NATO membership increases return probability by a further 7.1 points, while cutting corruption boosts it by 3.2 points — roughly the same effect as a 20 percent rise in income or the prospect of EU accession.

The study also found significant demographic differences.

Women showed higher overall return intentions than men and were more sensitive to economic and institutional improvements.

Younger refugees, aged 18 to 34, placed more weight on job opportunities, income prospects, and potential EU membership, but their average return probability was just 26.3 percent — a worrying sign for Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction given its low birth rate.

“Credible security arrangements and the restoration of territorial integrity are prerequisites for large-scale voluntary return,” the authors note.

Given that NATO membership and EU membership are currently off the table without unanimity among members — Hungary, for example, proving to be a stumbling block in both instances — the percentage of returnees in reality would likely be at the lower end of the scale, with Ukraine unlikely to achieve the conditions the Ifo Institute identifies as prerequisites for large-scale return.

The realistic return rate is far lower than previous surveys, such as one conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) last year, which revealed that 64 percent of Ukrainian refugees living in Poland, Germany, and Czechia, were satisfied with their new lives and intended to pursue citizenship in their respective host countries.

The longer the conflict drags on, the less likely Ukrainian refugees are to return home, as seen by a February 2023 survey from Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), which revealed 34 percent of respondents would return immediately after the war without qualification.

According to Eurostat data, as of the end of August 2025, 4.37 million Ukrainian refugees were living in the European Union under the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive — equivalent to 9.7 refugees per 1,000 people across the bloc.

Poland and Germany host by far the largest numbers, with 1.21 million and 995,925 respectively, followed by the Czech Republic (385,855) and Italy (171,200).

Substantial Ukrainian populations are also present in Spain (244,165), France (129,350), and Romania (192,835).

At 34.4 per 1,000 persons, Czechia has taken in the most refugees per capita, followed by Poland (27.3) and Estonia (25.4).

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/16/2025 - 02:00