Russia Expresses Alarm Over Deepening NATO-South Korea Ties

Moscow and Pyongyang have quite obviously deepened their relations in unprecedented ways over the past years since the Ukraine war began, and this has been most on display with the transfer of thousands of North Korean troops in support of Russian forces, and DPRK soldiers even losing their lives while fighting Ukraine.

So it's only to be expected that Russia side with North Korea in the long-running conflict and standoff with South Korea. But now the Kremlin senses Seoul is moving ever closer to NATO, to the point that it's calling out the deepened military relations.

Russia has newly made clear its position that it is unacceptable for South Korea to become a de facto participant in the alliance’s rearmament efforts.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a new statement issued following a meeting between Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko and South Korean Ambassador to Moscow Lee Seok Bae:

"The Russian side expressed serious concern over Seoul’s growing drift toward NATO, as demonstrated, among other things, by the Republic of Korea’s practical steps to deepen military and military-technical cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance, the consequences of which pose a threat to Russia’s security," the statement said.

The ministry stated that "it is unacceptable for the Republic of Korea to become a de facto participant in NATO's qualitative and quantitative rearmament process, as the alliance has openly declared its preparations for war with Russia."

Of course, South Korea is not a NATO member and full membership remains unrealistic; however, it is seen by Brussels as a highly integrated "Indo-Pacific partner" - and of course the United States has a permanent large-scale troop presence there.

Major General Eray Üngüder, Director of NATO’s Cooperative Security Division, declared in June that "The Republic of Korea is a longstanding Partner of NATO and we are grateful to have this strongly committed partnership."

And NATO describes on its website of relations with Seoul that "This collaboration, initiated in 2005, involves joint efforts in several fields including cybersecurity, capability development, new technologies and countering hybrid threats. This year’s conversations primarily addressed topics like interoperability, standardization and cyber exercises."

But Moscow definitely sees thing differently. It agrees with Kim Jong Un that Washington is an 'imperialist' power and hegemon, and through constant military flexing, sows instability from Eastern Europe to the South Pacific.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 21:20

Fake Records May Have Put Untrained Drivers On America's Roads

Authored by David Manney via PJMedia.com,

Fake training records can move an unprepared driver one step closer to a commercial license.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin are now investigating about 75 entry-level driver training schools suspected of doing exactly that.

Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has identified approximately 75 entry-level driving training schools suspected of fraudulent activities, including using improper driver certifications, falsifying training records, and failing to properly train drivers applying for CDLs, among other violations. USDOT will engage DHS’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in its investigations of these schools.

“USDOT has spent the last year rooting out bad actors from our trucking industry,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy. “We've knocked over 24,000 drivers off our roads for failing to speak English, forced states to cancel over 28,000 licenses illegally issued to foreign drivers, and purged over 9,500 unqualified training schools from our FMCSA registry. DHS will be a force multiplier of our efforts to clean up America's roads. President Trump is using every lever at his disposal to ensure the safety of American families.”

“Too many American lives have been lost in completely avoidable accidents because illegal aliens have been granted commercial driver’s licenses to drive trucks and 18-wheelers on America’s roadways,” said DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. “DHS law enforcement is partnering with the Department of Transportation to eliminate CDL fraud, strengthen the integrity of the CDL system, and investigate commercial driver’s license schools throughout the country. This is a whole of government approach, to keep America’s roads safe.”

This is part of the administration's ongoing efforts to root out fraud from American trucking and restore integrity to the industry.

Federal officials say the schools may have used improper certifications, falsified training records, or failed to train CDL applicants properly. Homeland Security Investigations will work with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration to determine whether poor instruction crossed into criminal fraud.

The licensing system gives training schools enormous power. Federal rules require many first-time applicants to complete approved instruction before taking a CDL skills test.

Registered schools then submit completion records electronically, and state licensing agencies use those records to decide whether an applicant may test.

Providers also self-certify that they meet federal standards when joining the registry. A dishonest school damages the first major checkpoint before an applicant ever sits for the road test. Fraud at that stage reaches far beyond paperwork.

Duffy's department had already found deep problems. In February, more than 300 investigators conducted 1,426 on-site inspections across all 50 states. They issued 448 proposed removal notices, while 109 providers removed themselves after learning investigators were coming. Another 97 remained under investigation.

The violations were not harmless technical errors. Investigators found instructors without the proper licenses, schools using the wrong vehicles, incomplete student assessments, and providers that failed to meet their state requirements. One school had even trained bus drivers.

Nearly 10,000 training locations have now been removed from the federal registry. The department also says more than 24,000 drivers were taken out of service for failing English proficiency requirements, while states canceled more than 28,000 licenses illegally issued to foreign drivers.

Those numbers expose a system that went too long without firm inspection. The new joint probe adds criminal investigators who can follow records, payments, identities, and possible coordination between schools and applicants.

Legitimate driving schools and qualified immigrant drivers should welcome the cleanup. Fraudulent operators cheapen the work of every instructor who teaches the rules and every driver who earns a CDL lawfully. They also leave responsible trucking companies exposed when a bad credential slips through.

A commercial license is permission to operate some of the largest vehicles on American roads. Families traveling beside them can't inspect a driver's school records or verify who provided the training. The government carries that duty before the license is issued.

Duffy and Mullin are finally treating driver training as part of highway safety rather than an administrative formality. The 75 schools remain under investigation, and officials still must establish what each one did. Every false record should be traced to the driver, licensing office, and person who profited from it because a forged certificate should never become a license to endanger everyone else.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 20:55

$100 Billion & Climbing: Iran War Price Tag Believed Far Higher Than WH Estimates

While the Pentagon publicly clings to a $30 billion price tag for its war against Iran, internal Defense Department assessments (unsurprisingly) paint a far more staggering picture: the true cost is rapidly closing in on the $80 billion to $100 billion range, according to NBC News.

The Pentagon's Office of Management and Budget told Congress on June 30 that US military operations against Iran so far is $30 billion: "We’ve spent about $30 billion," OMB Director Russel Vought told the House Appropriations Committee. 

NBC's new assessment bluntly states the following, however: "The cost of the war with Iran could be more than triple the most recent estimate of roughly $30 billion, according to three U.S. officials and three people familiar with the internal cost estimates."

The lower figure was reportedly initially floated based a classic Washington accounting trick which only evaluates the cost of expended missiles and munitions while conveniently ignoring the charred remnants of American hardware and damaged bases littering the Gulf states after Iranian retaliatory attacks, the report explains.

The estimate featured in the NBC report accounts for actually rebuilding those installations previously attacked by Iran. Judging by how things are going this week - after five consecutive days of renewed fighting - the final bill from damage will only keep pushing up from here.

It has been well documented that while American troops at Gulf bases across the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf were by and large pulled back from near 'front lines' - large US military assets like refueling tankers were in some cases left behind, resulting in scenes like the following:

The Telegraph: In a picture verified by AFP, the mangled airframe of the US air force jet stands on the runway of Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia.

"Five U.S. Air Force refueling planes were struck and damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia, according to two U.S. officials," The Wall Street Journal reported in mid-March. Each one costs hundreds of millions.

"The tankers were hit during an Iranian missile strike on the Saudi base in recent days, the officials said," WSJ detailed at the time. "U.S. Central Command declined to comment. The tankers were damaged but not fully destroyed and are being repaired, one of the officials said. No one was killed in the strikes."

And in Bahrain, home of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, damage to military facilities is already estimated at $1 billion. Heavily fortified installations in Kuwait have also taken a severe beating, with both these tiny Arab Gulf states being favored targets of IRGC projectiles of late.

In the meantime, with a $1.5 trillion budget battle looming this autumn, the Pentagon is currently urging Congress to approve $68 billion supplemental funding package just to keep the lights on, but as the Iran war drags on with few clear objectives outlining an endgame, defense officials are hitting a wall of bipartisan skepticism among lawmakers.

One D.C. watchdog group, Public Citizen, has stated this week: "The American people are fed up with spending more on bombs and less on basic needs. And they are furious with a pointless, deadly, illegal, unconstitutional and protracted war that is costing lives and driving up gas prices."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 20:30

Why Washington Is Challenging The International Criminal Court

Authored by William Brooks via The Epoch Times,

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent announcement of a “whole-of-government” campaign to challenge the International Criminal Court (ICC) has generated predictable discourse worldwide.

The Trump administration is applying diplomatic pressure on allied governments to reconsider their support for the Court. Washington is calling for expanded sanctions against ICC officials, visa restrictions, and renewed insistence that the Court has no lawful authority over citizens of sovereign nations.

For the usual globalist critics, this is just another example of Trumpian unilateralism. But for sensible Americans, it reflects the president’s determination to place “America First” ahead of international institutions.

In fact, the issue deserves thoughtful examination that goes beyond ideological rhetoric. At its heart lies one of the oldest questions in constitutional government: Who has the ultimate authority to judge the citizens of a sovereign nation—its own national institutions, or an international tribunal whose judges are beyond the reach of that nation’s electorate?

The answer explains why every American administration since the ICC’s creation has refused to recognize the Court’s jurisdiction over American servicemen and government officials.

The International Criminal Court was established under the Rome Statute in 1998 and formally began operations in 2002. It was created with an admirable purpose: to prosecute individuals responsible for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and, more recently, the crime of aggression when national courts either cannot or will not act.

The horrors of Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia convinced many that the “international order” needed a permanent institution capable of bringing the world’s worst criminals to justice. Few people disputed that objective.

Since World War II, the United States has played a significant role in shaping modern international criminal law. From the Nuremberg trials to the creation of temporary tribunals for Yugoslavia and Rwanda, successive American governments have supported the prosecution of genuine war criminals.

What Washington has never accepted is the proposition that an international court may exercise criminal jurisdiction over American citizens without the United States’ consent.

Global Overreach

Bill Clinton authorized the signing of the Rome Statute during the final days of his administration, but he deliberately declined to submit it to the Senate for ratification, acknowledging significant constitutional concerns.

George W. Bush later informed the United Nations that the United States did not intend to become a party to the treaty. Congress reinforced that position through the American Service-Members’ Protection Act of 2002, declaring that American military personnel should never be surrendered to the ICC without U.S. consent.

Subsequent administrations differed in tone but not in principle. Barack Obama cooperated with the Court in certain cases involving foreign atrocities while continuing to reject its jurisdiction over Americans.

Joe Biden lifted some sanctions imposed during Donald Trump’s first term but tacitly maintained that the ICC possessed no lawful authority over U.S. personnel. The American constitutional objection has remained remarkably consistent across the partisan divide.

The present controversy over the court’s power arose from the ICC’s contention that if an alleged offense occurs within the territory of a country that has ratified the Rome Statute, the Court may prosecute even citizens of countries that have never accepted its jurisdiction.

The Court’s reasoning formed the basis for investigations involving American personnel in Afghanistan and has also underpinned recent proceedings involving Israeli leaders. Sovereign nations are right to see this as global overreach.

America in Opposition

History offers good reasons for American concern. International organizations, such as the United Nations, are not immune from politicization. Their legitimacy depends not only upon noble aspirations but also upon public confidence that they exercise their authority impartially and within clearly defined legal limits.

Whenever global institutions expand their jurisdiction beyond what states originally contemplated, they inevitably invite resistance.

This concern echoes an argument made 50 years ago by the late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan. In his influential 1975 book “A Dangerous Place” and in articles and speeches during his tenure as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Moynihan argued that the United States had entered an era of permanent “opposition” within international institutions.

He believed that organizations originally established to foster cooperation had increasingly become grievance forums for a multinational majority of former European colonies that were determined to disparage the United States and its longstanding allies.

Moynihan did not reject international cooperation; quite the opposite. He believed that international institutions were valuable—but only when they respected truth, legal restraint, and the sovereign equality of nations. When those institutions exceeded their proper authority or became instruments of political activism, he believed democratic governments had both the right and the obligation to resist.

Half a century later, Moynihan’s warning is remarkably relevant. The present dispute is not just about whether war crimes should be prosecuted. Every civilized nation supports bringing genuine perpetrators of genocide and crimes against humanity to justice.

The real question is whether or not an international court has an independent right to define the limits of its own authority.

Washington Rejects the ICC’s Jurisdiction

American constitutional tradition holds that treaties bind only those nations that freely consent to them. The Senate never ratified the Rome Statute. Consequently, successive administrations have maintained that no international body can acquire criminal jurisdiction over Americans through the unilateral decisions of other governments.

This is not merely a legal technicality. It goes to the heart of democratic accountability. American judges answer to constitutional procedures established by the American people. Congress writes the laws. Presidents appoint judges under constitutional safeguards. Elections provide ultimate political accountability.

The judges of the International Criminal Court answer to no American electorate. American citizens cannot vote them out of office, alter their mandate, or amend the Rome Statute under which they operate. This exempts the Court from democratic accountability and permits it to exercise extraordinary powers over individuals who never consented to its authority. Within this order of things, Americans are as inclined to trust the impartiality of international judges as they are to trust the neutrality of international soccer referees.

Washington’s position is not unique. Other major democracies, including India, have also declined to join the Court. The objections vary, but many share the concern that international institutions should not gradually acquire powers that sovereign governments never delegated. Dismissing concerns about sovereignty as ultra-America-first nationalism diminishes the importance of an issue that has occupied constitutional scholars for decades.

That is a profound constitutional issue. In spite of the usual virtue signaling and anti-American theater, there is a principle at stake that has united every U.S. administration for more than a quarter century. The United States never consented to place its citizens under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court.

Whether one agrees with Rubio’s assertion or not, it is hardly an extremist position. It reflects a long-standing understanding of constitutional government—that the legitimacy of law rests ultimately upon the consent of the governed. This is not just another battle in the culture wars or more evidence of presidential brinkmanship—it’s an issue that deserves to be taken seriously.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 20:05

California Grocery Stores Use Facial Recognition Technology To Combat Theft

Via American Greatness,

Faced with a shoplifting epidemic that has battered California retailers for years, Grocery Outlet is fighting back with technology.

Customers are not thrilled about it.

The Emeryville-based discount grocery chain has begun installing facial recognition software called SAFR at a handful of Bay Area stores, including its Pleasant Hill “Bargain Market” location, CBS News San Francisco reported.

Customers walking through the doors will find signs warning them the system is in use, a disclosure the company says is meant to keep shoppers informed.

The rollout comes as California tries to combat a shoplifting problem that has spiraled out of control.

FBI data cited by CBS shows theft in the state has jumped 50 percent since the COVID-19 pandemic, a surge that has forced retailers from big-box chains to neighborhood grocers to spend millions on security measures, or in some cases, shutter stores altogether.

For June Guerrero, who spent years managing a retail store, the new technology is a welcome and overdue response to a problem she saw firsthand.

“I worked for years as a manager of a store and the theft was just unbelievable,” Guerrero told CBS News. “I agree with it.”

Not every customer sees it that way. Barbara Jackson told the outlet she’s uneasy about having her face scanned every time she shops for groceries.

“I do understand, but invading my privacy with my picture, I don’t agree on that,” Jackson said. “You gotta find a better way.”

Shopper Steve Burdette raised a different concern: the risk of the system misidentifying innocent customers as thieves.

“It could lead to a lot of problems, I think for companies and businesses and people,” he said.

SAFR president Charisse Jacques pushed back on the notion that the technology amounts to mass surveillance. She said the company does not maintain a database of every customer who walks through the door, retains information on suspected shoplifters only for a limited window, and does not share data with outside agencies — including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, according to the New York Post.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 19:15

"Glaring Subsidization": Virginia Questions Cost Allocation For Data Centers

By Diana DiGangi of UtilityDive

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s office, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others weighed in on Dominion Energy’s proposal for allocating the cost of transmission projects driven by data center development at a hearing held by the Virginia State Corporation Commission on Tuesday.

Louise White, Spanberger’s deputy energy officer, said that the governor’s office wants the SCC to apply three solutions in the case: a “but for” cost causation standard; requiring transmission level-contributions in aid of construction, or CIAC, payments; and transitioning to the summer/winter peak and average cost allocation method.

Attorney and lobbyist Will Cleveland testified on behalf of Google that Dominion only recently completed its shift to a 12 coincident peak demands allocation factor, and its new GS-5 rate class for large loads hasn’t yet gone into full effect, saying it’s “simply too early in the process” to know whether these changes alone might fairly reallocate the data center cost burden.

The SCC’s hearing concerns Dominion’s proposed change to its Rider T-1, a line-item charge allocated to cost recovery for transmission investments, which the utility seeks to increase in order to recover around $1.5 billion in transmission costs. Dominion originally estimated that the average residential ratepayer’s bill would increase by around $2.90 a month as a result but lowered that estimate to $0.94 a month based on updated forecasting.

Cleveland said that SCC’s final order in Dominion’s 2025 rate case approved large load provisions like the creation of the GS-5 rate class, with cost shifting as the provisions’ “entire premise ... Why is that not sufficient?” He asked the SCC to direct Dominion to revise its line extension policy to allow for voluntary CIAC payments, which he called a “win-win.” 

Andrew Major, an SCC attorney testifying on behalf of commission staff, said that if the commission chooses to adopt a methodology other than 12CP, staff “recommends transitioning over a multi-year period in order to facilitate gradualism and cost responsibility.”

“However, regardless of the cost allocation methodology that is chosen, there remains a glaring cross-class subsidization occurring to the benefit of new GS-5 customers,” Major said. He noted that Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta signed a ratepayer protection pledge at the White House in March, adding, “Curiously, none of those companies mentioned this pledge in either pre-filed testimony or opening statements today.”

The SCC continued to hear arguments on Wednesday, and must issue a decision in the case by Aug. 1.

In testimony filed June 11, Amazon witness Cameron Brooks also requested the adoption of voluntary CIAC payments “as a way to reduce ratepayer burden,” saying this would make “the customer’s financial responsibility for the identified facilities … clear, enforceable, and integral to mitigating subsidization and stranded cost risks.”

Jonathan Zader, senior assistant county attorney for Loudoun County — where the bulk of Virginia’s data centers are being developed — testified that “the stakes are particularly high” for Loudoun County, which requests cost recovery under Rider T-1 include direct allocation and CIAC payments for upgrades that are “but for” caused by interconnecting large load customers.

Methodology arguments

Michael Goggin, of Grid Strategies, testified on behalf of Appalachian Voices that concerns about stranded asset risk — enabled by what Brooks called the “socialization of speculative investment” from data center developers — is driving advocacy for CIAC payments as well as direct assignment, which allocates the cost of upgrades directly to the customer or rate class they’re serving.

But Goggin argued that “direct assignment only helps address part of the problem here. Dominion is still far too reliant on supplemental projects and needs to be directed to utilize the PJM regional competitive transmission planning process for the bulk of its transmission investment, so that we can reduce costs for all ratepayers,” he said.

John Farmer, section chief of the insurance and utilities regulatory section within the office of consumer counsel at the Virginia Attorney General’s Office, said the consumer council office “generally supports direct assignment conceptually when it is possible to identify a cost causer,” and “believes that the situations in which we may be able to identify a specific cost causer are growing.”

“But unlike allocating costs among the different classes, something this commission has done with regularity for many many years, there are uncertainties when it comes to the direct assignment of transmission costs that may warrant additional analysis,” Farmer said. For instance, he said, additional analysis on the relative merits of direct assignment to specific customers versus direct assignment to the overall GS-5 rate class “could be helpful.”

Farmer also said that the summer and winter peak average methodology of calculating cost, or an average and excess methodology used alongside 12CP, could be “reasonable alternatives” to the current 12CP methodology.

“Consumer Council does not find [Dominion’s] counterarguments to testimony recommending the SWPA method, in particular, to be persuasive, and expects the evidence that will come before this commission will support a movement to that methodology,” he said.

Dominion uses SWPA for cost-of-service studies and rate structures in North Carolina, but Dominion regulatory analyst Robert Miller said the company “believes that 12CP is the more appropriate allocation methodology for the companies for the Virginia jurisdiction.”

Miller reasoned that Dominion has a much smaller service territory in North Carolina, and he is not aware of any new high load factor customers in that area. He said that 12CP is a preferable methodology for use in Virginia, but agreed with Southern Environmental Law Center senior attorney Nate Benforado that SWPA “is in the zone of reasonableness.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 17:40

The Maine Democratic Senate Debate To Replace Platner Was - Quite Something

The field of eight candidates was split into two groups of four, running the top-tier candidates first and dishing the rest out for a second round. By the time it wrapped, these eight took turns explaining why they, specifically, are the ones who can finally unseat an incumbent who has outlasted six presidential administrations, and ended up making Graham Platner look pretty good in the process.

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows participated in the first segment. She previously challenged Collins for this same Senate seat in 2014 and lost by 37 points. She is also widely known for trying to remove Trump from the Republican primary ballot in 2024 by invoking the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause, which was shot down by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Bellows found a new way to look unprepared on stage Thursday night, as she was unable to answer simple questions about her own policy positions.

MODERATOR: "What qualifications do you have to serve in the U.S. Senate?"

Maine Democrat Ashley Webb: "I'm a songwriter and I write my own books." pic.twitter.com/csMIFkmt4Q

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 17, 2026

Asked about the military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, she attacked Collins directly, "What Susan Collins has failed to stop is a completely unstable foreign policy," she said.

Moderator Phil Hirschkorn was forced to point out the inconvenient fact that Collins voted for a war powers resolution limiting Trump's options in Venezuela back in January.

Bellows had nothing. "Forgive me," she said. "A week ago, I was on vacation on a river on the Kennebec, and I've been running for governor for a long time."

She added, "When I need to know the facts, I will," she added. "I'll do my homework."

The most amusing candidate was Ashley Webb, a trans-identifying man whose qualifications for the United States Senate are, objectively, dubious. "I ran for office several times, didn't win, but I did run. And then I'm a songwriter, and then I write my own books, and then I suppose my transparency," Webb said. "I wouldn't lie to the people and I wouldn't deceive the people like we're being deceived right now."

Webb created a viral moment by mistakenly referring to "pork bellying" instead of "pork barreling," the practice of allocating federal funds for local projects.

Checking in on the Maine Senate Debate: “I believe they called it pork bellying by cutting out the pork belly from all the bills, sure that would save a lot of money as well…” pic.twitter.com/Gv66Ks43rh

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) July 17, 2026

Another clip of Webb that has gone viral is him involves his position on transgender bathroom policy. "With the trans community, we're being dehumanized, they say that we want to hurt people. I don't want to hurt anybody. I just want to use the bathroom and if they want me to use the men's room, I will. But I don't want to be assaulted," he said.

Nobody on either panel closed the sale, and left-leaning media outlets couldn't deny it.

"The debate laid bare the reality of how difficult replacing Platner and mounting a serious challenge against Collins will be," CNN reported. "None of the candidates in Thursday night's debate could replicate the political skills that allowed Platner to emerge as a viral sensation, elbow a two-term governor out of the race and poll neck-and-neck with Collins before he ended his campaign after a woman accused him of rape - allegations he has denied. Shah's delivery was one-note and Bellows' was halting. Wood often turned to his notes. Jackson frequently cleared his throat and changed directions mid-sentence."

The candidates on stage Thursday were unprepared, uninspiring, and exactly the kind of opposition Susan Collins should be thanking her lucky stars for. Eight Democrats took the stage looking for a breakout moment and what voters got was more of a blooper reel instead.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 16:40

After Trump's 'Election Cyber-F**kery' Speech, "The Game Is Gonna Get Rough Now"...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“. . . the Democrat Party. . . are morally bankrupt nincompoops who have been beaten by the establishment like the rented mules they are. “

- Kurt Schlichter on X

Strange to relate, in last night’s speech to the nation on election chicanery, President Trump managed to both overwhelm and underwhelm public expectation.

He touched on voting machine shenanigans, registration skullduggery, cyber-fuckery, labor union toolery, ballot fraud, and especially China meddling.

Internal CIA / FBI docs at the time said that China’s policy around the 2020 US election was to “leverage all domestic and foreign elements” opposed to the President to prevent his re-election. The Intel bunch never sent that memo to the White House. They were too busy pushing fake Russia meddling, fake impeachment, and a fake Covid-19 pandemic. Then they declared the 2020 was “the most secure election in history.”

As of yesterday, the President de-classified many thousands of Intel agency documents for the public (and news media) to peruse.

And naturally, the major cable news networks (except Fox) declined to broadcast the speech.

As of Friday morning, The New York Times leads the offensive to disparage the actual news.

He’s Obsessed, that Trump!

The actual news: China hacked over 220-million voter registrations, plus social security files; manufactured and shipped tens of thousands of fake US driver’s licenses to be used in motor-voter states; and paid favored US journalists to write negative articles about Mr. Trump. The Department of Homeland Security reported 278,000 non-citizens were registered to vote in federal elections. But that number was compiled only from states that complied with DOJ demands for voter rolls. California, New York, and Illinois and many other states refused, so the number is probably more than double the DHS figure.

The big take-away was that US Intel agencies withheld all this intel from the President of the US, Mr. Trump, in the lead-up to the 2020 vote.

Yes, there really is Deep State, as seen starkly in a now-declassified memo from the then-chief of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division, one Nikki Floris, who wrote “I’m basically running a shadow government at this point” by hiding information from POTUS.

Ms. Floris is now employed as Microsoft’s Director of Insider Risk (former Deputy Attorney General under “Joe Biden,” Lisa Monaco, is President of Microsoft Global Affairs.)

According to the NY Post’s Miranda Devine, in August 2020, Nikki Floris also tried to hoodwink Senators Chuck Grassley and Rob Johnson, telling them the Hunter Biden laptop was a Russian op — a gag later ratified by fifty-one former intel officers (including five former CIA Directors) who signed the notorious October letter to the news media.

All of this activity, Mr. Trump averred, amounted to a cover-up of a conspiracy by members of the permanent bureaucracy to overthrow the government. And that is exactly why more than one federal grand jury is convened in Fort Pierce, Florida, right now, to sort out who, exactly, is going to account for these rather grave crimes. The new document release is apt to accelerate the work of US Attorneys there, since declassification is the biggest routine holdup in the process.

On the “underwhelming” side of the president’s speech, there was little mention of the swing-state ballot fraud enabled and conducted by local election officials in Fulton County, Georgia, Maricopa County, Arizona, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Antrim County, Michigan, Mesa County, Colorado, and Philadelphia, PA. But you know that the FBI raided Fulton County election headquarters months ago and seized around 700 boxes of evidence, and then reassigned 260 FBI agents to examine all the material. All that might still be to-come.

Then there is the question of the millions of dollars that Hunter Biden winkled out of China over the years before the 2020 election — records of which were stuffed in his infamous laptop, along with photos and video of his sexual exploits there — and whether Hunter’s father, Joe, was a blackmail captive of China leading up to that election. Stay tuned on that.

Altogether, Mr. Trump’s speech and document drops are obviously an effort to move election reform, the Save America Act, through Congress, where it has languished in a procedural miasma for months due to one man: Senate Majority Leader John Thune. The President’s emphasis last night on China’s election meddling is purposeful in ways not broadly apprehended, but I will tell you:

If Congress does not find a way to vote that bill out to Mr. Trump’s desk before they recess for the rest of the summer in late July, Mr. Trump will invoke an executive order under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) — Public Law 94-412; codified at 50 U.S.C. §§ 1601–1651 — requiring the fifty states to employ all the same provisions that are in the SAVE America Act for the 2026 midterm elections. Under the NEA, the federal courts cannot be used to fight or strike down the executive order; it can only be stopped by a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate.

If that is the course that this takes, you can expect Antifa and the Democratic-Socialist foot-soldiers to take to the streets this fall in a violently-amplified episode of “No Kings” demonstrations — because fair and honest elections with citizens-only voting will mean the end of the Democratic Party, and they know it. Last night’s move by President Trump is only the opening bid of a quickening game against the Deep State, and their partners-in-sedition.

The game is gonna get rough now.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 16:20

PJM Capacity Auction Results Compound "Alarm Bells": FERC Chairman Swett

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The PJM Interconnection’s just-held capacity auction cleared nearly 7 GW below its reliability target and only drew roughly 500 MW of new power supply, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Laura Swett said Thursday.

“These numbers compound the alarm bells for a call to action in PJM,” Swett said during the agency’s monthly meeting. “Am I surprised that PJM failed to deliver? No, I am not,” Swett said later during a media briefing.

However, FERC isn’t trying to “target” PJM, she said.

“This is a problem that involves people at the federal level, at the market level, the state level, the registered entities, the market participants … all the utilities, the companies there,” Swett said. “This is a very complex issue that everyone has to coalesce around, coming up with a solution.”

FERC aims to address some of the problems at a technical conference on July 23 focused on PJM’s governance issues.

“The current stakeholder process in PJM is slow where it must be fast, opaque where it must be transparent, and vulnerable to vetoes and agenda control exactly when the region needs immediate action,” Swett said.

From the conference, FERC expects to get “ideas on paper, on a record,” Swett said. “I am very optimistic that certain proposals will be front runners that are grounded in the record that we collect next week, so that there should be a more clear path forward for PJM after that.”

FERC Commissioner Lindsay See also highlighted the need for reforms at PJM, the nation’s largest grid operator, serving 67 million people in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions.

“PJM has to be able to get reforms across the finish line in a timely and transparent way,” See said. “Part of that also includes the need for a governance structure that can not only deliver concrete results but that can give parties the type of confidence in those reforms that’s necessary to drive investment where and when it’s needed.”

Last week, FERC Commissioner David LaCerte said the status quo at PJM was “untenable.”

Here are five other takeaways from FERC’s meeting.

Data center reliability standards

FERC set deadlines for the North American Electric Reliability Corp. to develop reliability standards for computational loads — data centers and crypto-mining operations — and the rules for registering those loads by Dec. 31. The grid watchdog is already developing those standards and rules.

FERC also directed NERC to file by March 1 a plan detailing the next steps in its standards development process for computational loads.

“I applaud NERC’s proactive efforts on these matters,” Swett said. FERC set the deadlines because “they are a great mechanism for producing results,” she said.

As part of its Large Loads Action Plan, NERC expects to issue the proposed reliability standards and draft registry criteria for public comment in August, it said Thursday.

FERC orders CAISO, SPP Western seams report

FERC ordered the California Independent System Operator and the Southwest Power Pool to file a report by Sept. 30 on how they plan to manage the seams between their markets and neighboring balancing authority areas in the West. The CAISO-run Extended Day-Ahead Market started operating in May. SPP expanded its footprint into the Western Interconnection in April, and its Markets+ initiative is expected to go live in October 2027. 

“While the increased deployment of organized markets is intended to bring substantial reliability and economic benefits to the West, the resulting seams create reliability, operational, and market efficiency hurdles that warrant proactive attention,” FERC said.

Earlier this month, CAISO President and CEO Elliot Mainzer said the grid operator was working with SPP to develop a joint operating agreement before Markets+ begins operating.

Complaint over PSE&G cost recovery advances

FERC advanced a complaint over Public Service Electric and Gas Co.’s cost recovery of a $546 million transmission project it built in New Jersey. The agency ordered an administrative law judge to conduct hearings on Public Citizen’s January complaint alleging that the costs were imprudently incurred.

In December 2024, PSE&G agreed to pay a $6.6 million fine to settle a FERC enforcement office investigation into the utility’s justifications to PJM for building the Roseland-Pleasant Valley transmission project.

FERC rejects complaint over Duke transmission rates

FERC rejected a complaint that sought to stop Duke Energy Progress from including the costs of four transmission lines that could benefit solar developers into its overall transmission rates. 

The agency dismissed arguments made by North Carolina Electric Membership Corp. in its complaint, saying, “Rolled-in rate treatment for the costs of the four … projects is consistent with longstanding Commission precedent that favors rolled-in rate treatment for integrated transmission facilities.”

FERC eyes changes to ‘hypothetical capital structure’ incentive

FERC approved a 50/50 hypothetical debt to equity capital structure for two transmission projects that Basin Electric Power Cooperative plans to build in North Dakota for about $469.3 million. FERC offers hypothetical capital structures as an incentive for transmission development.

“They can help new transmission companies secure financing for large projects and allow developers to move forward even when their actual capital structure may not yet reflect a project’s long-term financial profile,” Swett said. 

However, FERC is considering changes to the incentive, which increases consumer costs, Swett said at the agency’s meeting.

“This is a very complex topic with significant implications for financing, project development, regional planning, and customer affordability. Even small changes to utilities’ return can have significant impacts,” she said. “I am confident that working with my colleagues, we can get that balance right and ensure that our policies promote needed transmission investment while protecting consumers.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 15:40

Apple And DOJ In "Early Settlement Talks" Over 2024 Antitrust Lawsuit

Apple and the U.S. Department of Justice are reportedly in early discussions to settle the government's 2024 antitrust lawsuit against the iPhone maker, though no agreement has been reached and no trial date has been set, Bloomberg reported today.

Apple has made multiple settlement offers this year in an effort to resolve the case, but negotiations remain ongoing and could still fall apart. Neither Apple nor the DOJ commented.

The lawsuit, originally filed under the Biden administration by the Justice Department along with 19 states and the District of Columbia, accuses Apple of illegally maintaining a monopoly in the smartphone market by making it harder for competing products and services to gain traction.

Regulators pointed to restrictions involving messaging apps, smartwatches, digital wallets, cloud gaming services, and so-called "super apps," arguing the company's practices harmed developers, competitors, and consumers. Apple lost its attempt to dismiss the case in June 2025.

Since the lawsuit was filed, Apple has already made several changes that address parts of the government's complaint. The company now supports RCS messaging, allows cloud gaming apps on the App Store, has opened the iPhone's NFC payment chip to third-party developers, and introduced a framework for mini apps. Apple still does not allow the Apple Watch to work with Android devices, though it has added features that improve compatibility between iPhones and non-Apple smartwatches.

The report also comes as the Trump Justice Department has shown a greater willingness to settle antitrust cases inherited from the previous administration, arguing negotiated agreements can deliver faster consumer benefits while avoiding years of costly litigation. It remains unclear whether the state attorneys general involved in the lawsuit are participating in the settlement talks.

While the Biden Justice Department launched a series of aggressive cases against Big Tech, including lawsuits targeting Apple, Google, Amazon and Meta Platforms, Trump's DOJ has shown a greater willingness to resolve inherited cases through negotiated settlements rather than years of courtroom battles.

That doesn't necessarily mean antitrust scrutiny is disappearing, but it does suggest the administration may be more focused on securing practical concessions from technology companies than pursuing lengthy, high-profile litigation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 15:20

DOJ, DHS Launch Election Integrity Website

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Thursday launched a joint website featuring an interactive map of federal enforcement actions aimed at election security, transparency, and integrity.

“Excited to launch the joint @TheJusticeDept @DHSgov election integrity website, an interactive map showing what actions the federal government is taking to improve election security, transparency, and integrity for all Americans! Updated regularly!” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon announced on X on July 16.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The website displays a nationwide map of states and the District of Columbia, with users able to click any jurisdiction to view linked enforcement records.

The page lists Justice Department actions targeting states that fail to produce voter registration rolls.

The Civil Rights Division said the effort was to protect the right to vote by ensuring accurate rolls and removing ineligible voters.

The page urges the public to “Get involved and learn more about the division’s election-integrity enforcement actions” and to “Support Election Integrity: Help the Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security protect the vote by reporting concerns and staying informed.”

The launch comes as the division continues to press states for full voter registration lists under federal laws, including the National Voter Registration Act, the Help America Vote Act, and the Civil Rights Act of 1960. Officials have described clean rolls as essential so that every eligible citizen’s vote counts equally and without dilution.

The interactive map and linked press releases centralize the volume of recent litigation and immigration-related arrests in one place. The site will be updated regularly as additional actions are taken.

Recent Justice Department filings listed include February 2026 lawsuits against five additional states for failure to produce voter rolls; January 2026 actions targeting Virginia, Arizona, and Connecticut; and multiple 2025 cases.

DHS and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) entries detail arrests of noncitizens who allegedly voted in federal elections, including a New Jersey case and an Australian national charged with voting in multiple elections, along with a Mexican national’s guilty plea for falsely claiming U.S. citizenship.

The site opens with a quote from President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14248, issued March 25, 2025: “Free, fair, and honest elections unmarred by fraud, errors, or suspicion are fundamental to maintaining our constitutional Republic.”

The executive order highlights that the United States does not enforce basic and necessary election protections, noting that countries like India and Brazil tie voter identification to biometric databases, whereas the United States relies on self-attestation for citizenship.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 14:40

HSBC Upgrades Apple To Buy, Sees "AI Boost" Sparking Device-Upgrade Cycle

Days after KeyBanc analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh downgraded Apple over concerns that soaring memory chip costs and rising iPad, Mac, and iPhone prices could spark a growth slowdown, HSBC analysts took the opposite view, upgrading the stock to a "Buy" rating to end the week.

HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson upgraded Apple to "Buy" from "Hold" on Friday morning and raised his price target to $366 from $260, telling clients that an "AI boost comes at the right moment" and could unleash a major device-upgrade cycle.

Cote-Colisson explained:

A new cycle ahead.

Thus far, we had retained a cautious approach on Apple with a Hold rating.

We had preferred other segments of the AI value chain, more prompt to exploit the bottlenecks created by the high demand in computing power, including hyperscalers or memory makers.

We think Apple is now at an operational turning point: not only can the company stay away from the (too) high capex debate (it only invests 2.5% of its 2026e sales vs 39% for hyperscalers, see page 10), we think it is also well placed to leverage its 2.5bn installed device base with its forthcoming revamped Apple Intelligence.

This AI boost comes at the right moment, when we think Apple has one of its most innovative product pipelines in place.

Cote-Colisson pointed out that Apple is at an "inflection point" as it prepares to deploy an agentic version of Siri capable of accessing information across applications and executing more complex tasks:

• New AI features coming this year represent a key catalyst for an acceleration in Apple's hardware and Services revenue
• Recent price hikes show confidence from Apple that pricing power can limit the negative impact of memory pricing on margin

HSBC expects the AI overhaul to coincide with a strong product pipeline that includes the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, a book-style foldable iPhone, an iPhone Air, a 20th-anniversary model and eventually AI-powered smart glasses. The combination could accelerate upgrades across Apple's installed base of more than 2.5 billion active devices, particularly among owners of the iPhone 15 and 16.

Putting this all together, the analyst expects the AI overhaul and robust pipeline to begin the "start of a fundamental shift that will force a faster hardware refresh across the 2.5bn+ active device installed base."

Cote-Colisson also raised Apple's 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates by 7% to 9%, including an 11% to 13% increase in his iPhone forecasts. He expects iPhone sales to rise 11.6% in fiscal 2027, compared with the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 8.3%. He also lifted his 2027 Services revenue forecast by 5.4%.

His fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate increased about 8% to $10.26, or 7.5% above consensus. Cote-Colisson expects EPS growth of roughly 16% that year, compared with a 12% median among Apple's peers.

Cote-Colisson pointed out that rising memory prices remain a significant risk: "Downside risks include competition from AI labs introducing new form factors that could challenge smartphones and a longer-than-expected global memory chip shortage compressing margins, although we believe Apple can command a significant degree of pricing power."

Earlier in the week, KeyBanc analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh downgraded Apple from "Sector Weight" to "Underweight" amid fears that rising device prices due to the memory crunch will hit sales in the coming quarters.

In mid-June, Apple CEO Tim Cook told the WSJ in an exclusive interview that price hikes were "unavoidable" because of the memory chip crunch.

Latest Bloomberg data shows 36 "Buy" ratings, 18 "Neutral" ratings, and 4 "Sell" ratings on the stock, with an average 12-month price target of $322.

$322 PT 

Professional subscribers can read more on Apple at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 14:25

Meta Eyes $10 Billion Deal To Lease AI Computing Power To Anthropic

Meta is standing up a cloud business to sell excess computing capacity from its massive data-center buildout, as we detailed earlier this month. The new business line would put Meta in direct competition with industry leaders such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.

Meta is in talks to rent computing power from its AI data centers to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth as much as USD 10bln over two years: NYT

Now "excess power"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 17, 2026

The New York Times reported that Meta is considering selling excess computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth up to $10 billion over the next two years.

Here's more color from NYT:

Meta is in talks to rent computing power from its artificial intelligence data centers to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth as much as $10 billion over two years, three people with knowledge of the discussions said, a potential step toward a new A.I. business for the social networking company.

Anthropic proposed the deal in June and Meta is considering it, said the people, who were not authorized to discuss confidential conversations. While the specifics were in flux, Anthropic would pay Meta in monthly increments over the two-year period, the people said. The companies would be able to opt out of any agreement early, they added.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently acknowledged that AI agent development over the past four months "hasn't accelerated in the way we expected."

• "Agent Development Hasn't Accelerated The Way We Expected": What Zuckerberg's AI Agent Confession Means For Token Demand

The company has also said it may build more data centers than it needs based on the number of customers using its AI products. Selling excess computing power to companies such as Anthropic would open a new revenue stream and potentially alleviate investor concerns following Meta's multiyear data-center buildout spree.

"A generational transfer in free cash flow is taking place: BofA pic.twitter.com/4K9fMrs8II

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 8, 2026

It's not just Meta. Elon Musk's SpaceX, which acquired his AI startup xAI earlier this year, has been renting massive amounts of computing capacity from its Memphis data centers to Anthropic PBC. That strategy could help xAI generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2028 and $100 billion by 2030.

Amid a fast-moving AI race...

... Meta's models are nowhere to be found. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 13:45

Pentagon Chief Backs Blue Angels Pilots Following Low-Altitude Pass Over Florida Beach Crowd

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

War Secretary Pete Hegseth offered support for U.S. Navy Blue Angels pilots on Thursday after a review of a low-altitude jet maneuver over Pensacola Beach, Florida, the day before.

Dramatic video shows the U.S. Navy Blue Angels making a low-altitude flyover above Pensacola Beach, Florida, on Wednesday. Navy officials confirmed in a statement that Blue Angels leadership is "reviewing the circumstances surrounding the maneuver and conducting a thorough safety… pic.twitter.com/ZUa1ryk4X8

— ABC News (@ABC) July 15, 2026

Video posted online showed one of the demonstration jets flying unusually close to the ground during an arrival maneuver on Wednesday.

The jet kicked up sand and beach items among spectators at a “Breakfast with the Blues” event. Children were seen covering their ears with their heads bowed.

The maneuver occurred during events tied to the squadron’s 80th anniversary.

“The flyovers will continue until morale improves,” Hegseth posted on X.

The Blue Angels said it is conducting a review of the maneuver.

“The safety of our hometown community, spectators, and our pilots is our highest priority. Team leadership is reviewing the circumstances surrounding the maneuver and conducting a thorough safety review to ensure all operations adhere to strict Navy and FAA safety standards,” the squadron said in a statement.

Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said later Thursday that a flight debrief had been completed and there would be no reprimands.

“No reprimands. No firings. No problem. That’s the sound of Freedom,” Cao wrote on X. “Semper fi and Hooyah.”

Wednesday’s incident took place during preparations for the Pensacola Beach Air Show. The show features expanded performances this year for the anniversaries. Organizers predicted large crowds.

No injuries were reported. One spectator told local media she had been in attendance at the air show for 10 years and never witnessed such a pass. She said she thought the jet might hit them but called the experience amazing.

This was at least the third time in recent months that Hegseth supported pilots after aerial maneuvers that drew scrutiny over safety concerns. The Pentagon lifted suspensions of helicopter pilots who flew low over the coast of South Carolina. In March, Hegseth said Army pilots would not be punished after flying attack helicopters near singer Kid Rock’s house.

Some lawmakers criticized the maneuver.

“Aviation safety rules are written in blood. Glamorizing and excusing reckless behavior like this will only lead to more, until we reach the point where a horrific tragedy occurs because of brazen, careless rhetoric like this,” Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) said on X.

The Blue Angels were created in 1946 and perform precision maneuvers at air shows and other events. Its home base is located in Pensacola.

Military aviation is closely regulated. Low-altitude flying limits reaction time for pilots. Blue Angels operations follow strict parameters on minimum altitudes.

The review followed standard Navy procedures for deviations from flight profiles. Past investigations into demonstration squadron incidents have examined precision requirements.

The Blue Angels squadron is made up of pilots and supporting personnel who perform for millions of spectators annually. The team remains set to continue its demonstrations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 13:10

 

Perhaps the question I hear asked most often is: “Are we in a bubble? What’s happening with this artificial intelligence thingie?”

I picked my favorite charts that shed light on this issue. All of these were pulled from my Q3 Review & Update quarterly call, which I do for RWM clients.

We have heard a lot of kvetching (sorry about using technical jargon) about the S&P’s big five, mag seven, and top ten. The top five is ~27% of the index, about where we were in the late ’60s and early ’70s. What sent concentration down over the following 30 years wasn’t a market crash; it was primarily the lack of Anti-Trust enforcement.1

Giant conglomerates were not in favor; M&A was cautiously watched. Most vertically integrated industries were carefully monitored; anywhere the consumer was disadvantaged, they were often not allowed to proceed. You simply could not just merge or buy whoever you wanted.

Concentration really began to tick up after a very significant regime change in M&A and antitrust enforcement in the late ’80s and early ’90s. Fast forward to what’s taken place over the past 15 years — it’s really gone postal.

Chart via Deutsche Bank Research Institute

 

I showed a table last year on the Magnificent Seven: 846 mergers have taken place over the past 15 years (as of a year ago!). In an era of traditional antitrust enforcement, we simply wouldn’t have 7 companies become the giant conglomerates that dominate everything today. Instead, these companies would be several hundred competitive firms; and if you believe what Adam Smith had to say, this would lead to better services at lower prices. The Mag 7 are probably 100 standalone companies, many of which would be S&P 500 companies in their own right.2

So while the bears are focused on concentration, they are ignoring the history of how these companies came together. The concentration meme mistakes these 300 companies for just 7 giant vertically integrated firms ….

~~~

Let’s see how market concentration around the world looks. This chart is quite telling.

 

Many of the world’s largest and/or most advanced economies have a concentration of their top 10 companies at 60, 70, 80% — Canada, France, the UK, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea. Yes, equity market concentration is something we should all pay attention to — but the US is on the relatively low end of the scale compared to the rest of the world.3

~~~

 

Perhaps the most interesting answer to the question “Are we in a bubble?” is the four biggest companies heading into the dot-com peak, and today.

Intel and Microsoft (before they entered the Dow) sported P/E ratios of 47 and 60, respectively. Oracle was at 120, Cisco, 130.

Today, Microsoft is under 20. Wait — you’re telling me that heading into the dot-com implosion, Microsoft was 3X as expensive as it is today? Apple at 33, pricey, but they are not only one of the biggest companies in the world, but one of the most profitable. Google at 25. Nvidia at 18? That sounds reasonable.

Ed Yardeni reminds us that the forward P/E of the technology sector today is 22; for the entire S&P 500, it is 20.4. In 2000, we were looking at 55 and 25 — Technology was 2X as expensive as it is now.

~~~

Home in on Nvidia, the poster child for the claim of an artificial intelligence bubble. It has grown into its P/E price. It now sports the same P/E ratio it did way back in 2019 — before the pandemic, before the CARES Act, before the semiconductor bill, before ChatGPT became a household name. It’s back to the same P/E ratio. That is an astonishing data point I find hard to ignore.

Its earnings have caught up to its price — and, more precisely, it’s given up a trillion dollars in market cap this year, the price has become a whole lot more rational relative to earnings. Again, when you see a chart like this, does it scream bubble to you?

~~~

Finally, I want to share an astonishing chart via the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. It shows how much the US has been spending on private AI investment relative to the rest of the world. This is a red flag for the people hyper-focused on a bubble.

The more accurate way to think about it (IMO) is that every new technology comes with massive overinvestment and an over-allocation of capital toward that technology.  This turns out not to be a bad thing (unless it’s your capital).

We built thousands of miles of railroad track in the 1800s, and most of those rail companies went bankrupt. The survivors bought up all that railway and connected those tracks into a giant coast-to-coast network for pennies on the dollar. Then came the Telegraph companies; into the 20th century, you had Telephone, Radio, Oil, Automobiles, Television, Aviation, Semiconductors, Computers, etc.

My favorite example is bandwidth and fiber. Global Crossing and Metromedia Fiber laid 1000s of miles of dark fiber for thousands of dollars per mile — then went bankrupt. The telecos and cable cos bought it up for pennies per mile. If that did not happen, YouTube, Facebook, Netflix, Instagram, and all the rest of the bandwidth-intensive firms would not be free or even reasonable.

Would you subscribe to Netflix or Disney+ if they were $400 per month? Without those cheap, fat pipes, those services would not exist. Somebody had to spend billions to build them and then go belly up…

Misallocation of capital is ultimately a positive. My friend Dan Gross wrote a book called Pop: Why Bubbles Are Great for the Economy — this chart could come right out of his book. Look at US investment in AI: it’s 20 times greater than China’s, which in turn is more than double the UK’s, or Canada’s, or France’s.

There’s a reason the US is the leader in this space: so much money is sloshing around, and that money is finding its way to investments like AI. Is there overinvestment in this space? Probably. There is endless amounts of capital. Go to any of the wealthier areas of the country — the Hamptons, Palm Beach, Newport, Nantucket — and it’s astonishing how much money is out there. Some of it buys beach houses, but a lot of it gets misinvested.

~~~

Does that mean this is a bubble? Does that mean AI is going to put everybody out of work?  Does that mean this is a disaster?

Historically, probably not. Most of the data I see does not say we are in the midst of a bubble remotely like 1999-2000.

That doesn’t mean capital won’t get misallocated, and it doesn’t mean this can’t become a bubble.  I can promise you it DOES NOT mean that this bull marekt will not end one day. But so far, so good.

 

 

 

Previously:
The Magnificent 493 (August 12, 2025)

Stocks, Bubbles & Market Myths (January 16, 2026)

Rational Exuberance? (November 24, 2025)

A Short History of Bubbles (October 24, 2025)

 

 

 

 

 

FOOTNOTES

1. Some of the lower prices and lower concentration seem to be related to both A) De-Conglomerization, and B) higher inflation post 1073 Arab Oil Embargo.

2. Facebook would have to compete not just with TikTok, but with Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, Reels, Threads, etc. Google may have started out as search, but its leveraged that into dominant positions in enterprise software, Storage, Google Drive, YouTube, Google Cloud, Chrome, Android, Google Play, Google Maps, Gemini AI, Nest, Motorola, Waymo, Wiz, etc.

The same is true for Amazon — which includes streaming Amazon Prime, mega firm Amazon Web Services,  as a giant standalone entity.

Look at Apple: while the phone is a big part of their revenue, Apple Services alone would be an S&P 500 company. The earbuds, Beats, and the rest of their audio business would be its own standalone company. This is to say nothing of Microsoft, which owns so much stuff it’s almost impossible to keep up.

Google bought YouTube ~20 years ago in 2006 for the then-outrageous price of $1.65 billion. On its own, YouTube would be one of the biggest companies in the S&P 500.

3. The caveat here is that the US population is less than 5% of the global population, and yet we’re 25% of world GDP and 50% of world market cap. Perhaps other countries don’t have room for so many companies, and only their big winners show up. I can’t fully explain it — I can just point out that if this is a problem in the US, it’s a much bigger problem in the rest of the world.

 

The post Overvalued, Bubble, or Revolution? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Musk Buys Florida-Based Energy Company

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Elon Musk has acquired a power company based in Jacksonville, Fla., paying $1 billion for the mobile gas-turbine provider as a possible solution to data center energy needs.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) lists Musk as the acquiring party, with New APR Energy, LLC listed as the acquired entity.

Neither party issued public statements on the deal that closed May 14. Local business news outlet Jacksonville Daily Record first reported on the news in June before it gained national media attention in recent days.

The potential cost of the deal was found in a separate filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in which Technologies Group reported selling its 5 percent non-voting stake in New APR Energy in a May 28 SEC report.

Duos said its sale generated $50.4 million in net proceeds, which implies the Musk deal was worth at least $1 billion.

Musk continues to invest in artificial intelligence (AI) development with the research company he founded, xAI, and its chatbot Grok.

His xAI company runs the Colossus data center in Tennessee, a $20 billion facility near a power plant site, where he has had to rent turbine units as he waits for grid power to the site.

New APR Energy owns and maintains a fleet of gas turbines with more than 1 gigawatt of power generation capacity, according to a statement from the company in January, when it expanded capacity.

The company has been delivering power to clients for more than 20 years, deploying its fleets “in as little as 30 to 90 days,” the statement said.

Grok is a generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) chatbot developed by xAI, based on a large language model (LLM). It was developed at the initiative of Elon Musk in response to the rise of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Riccardo Milani/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

Musk’s purchase of the Florida company represents his second investment in the energy sector. In 2006, Musk helped fund SolarCity, a company founded by his cousins, Peter and Lyndon Rive, which grew to be the largest residential solar installer in the United States.

Tesla bought SolarCity in an all-stock deal worth about $2.6 billion in 2016 and turned it into Tesla Energy.

Tech expert and podcaster Aakash Gupta said Musk’s latest transaction exposed the AI industry’s current problems.

“What [Musk] bought tells you where the real bottleneck in AI is,” Gupta said in a July 16 post on X.

New APR Energy operates a fleet of mobile gas and diesel turbines with over 1 gigawatt of generation capacity—enough to power 750,000 homes at once.

The fleet, which was built for disaster response, arrives on trucks and can be delivered, installed, and commissioned in a month.

The fast set-up time makes sense for Musk, who has already lived through delays with xAI’s first Memphis plant, Gupta said.

“Environmental groups sued. The [Justice Department] intervened to keep the turbines running. He was renting the most important input to his most important company,” Gupta said. “So he bought the landlord. … Every AI lab can buy the same chips. Only one of them now owns a power plant fleet that ships by truck.”

New APR Energy and Tesla did not return requests for comments about the purchase by publication time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 12:35

US Sends Dozens More Refueling Planes To Israel Amid Widening Iran War, Oil Climbs Summary

• Surge in more large US refueling planes headed to Mideast, signaling likely expansion of strikes on Iran.
• US attacks hit Iranian energy and transport infrastructure.
• Iran threatens stronger retaliation and claims strike on US base in Qatar - and deepens attacks to include US outposts in Jordan, Syria.
• Iran urges power conservation; Hormuz shipping traffic declines further.
• Oil prices rise to session highs on fears of broader regional conflict.

//--> //--> //--> Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes 27% · No 74%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Trump Sends Dozens More Refueling Planes in Sign Of Widening War

Oil prices are climbing on fresh reports Friday that President Trump is ready to continue escalating and expanding strikes on the Islamic Republic, after a Situation Room briefing this week where the Commander-in-Chief was presented with various options. It bears repeating that the White House in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury promised the American public a fast and hasty, limited military engagement - but this is where we are four months later...

"The Trump administration notified Israel it is sending dozens more refueling planes to the country ahead of a potential expansion of military operations against Iran, three U.S. and Israeli officials said," reports Axios. "After he was presented with several new military plans in a Situation Room meeting Tuesday, President Trump is considering a massive offensive in Iran that would be wider in scope than the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz." This is but the latest signal that the ceasefire and negotiations are fully dead, and the potential for runaway escalation is bigger than ever:

• OIL RISES TO SESSION HIGHS, BRENT TRADES ABOVE $87/BBL
• US YIELDS RISE TO DAY'S HIGH ON REPORTS OF US-IRAN ESCALATION
• US TO SEND DOZENS MORE REFUELING PLANES: AXIOS

War Secretary Pete Hegseth boasted Friday of taking out this Iranian maritime monitoring tower on the southern coast:

Meanwhile, another US attack on an Iranian oil tanker is being widely reported:

US forces have attacked an Iranian oil tanker docked near Iran’s Kharg Island for the second time in two days, according to an Iranian official speaking to the Fars news agency.

“The empty, Belma N.I.22 oil tanker, which was hit two days ago, was attacked again today by two US missiles”, the deputy governor of Bushehr told Fars.

Iranians Urges to Conserve Power

Iran has on Friday warned of a "more crushing" retaliation following the conclusion of last night's sixth consecutive day of US attacks, targeting military targets and logistics infrastructure, but also civilian sites connected to the power grid. By all accounts this current wave goes beyond the prior strikes in size and scope compared to the past several days.

Iranian state media has reported that eight people were killed from the overnight attacks, and that several bridges had been attacked overnight.

Illustrative wartime image from earlier in the conflict.

The country is feeling the strain under what is now nearly a week of constant US heavy attacks. This is being seen in that Iran's energy ministry has urgently called on citizens to reduce electricity use after the power grid came under strain following US strikes on energy infrastructure in the south.

In a statement on Friday, the ministry said those areas in the south "are currently experiencing extreme heat and attacks on power infrastructure." But as Al Jazeera notes, "The ministry however did not elaborate on whether it was power plants, transmission lines or other equipment that had been attacked." According to more details:

Iran's Energy Ministry urged citizens to reduce electricity consumption to help stabilize power supply in the country’s southern provinces following US strikes on energy facilities, citing extreme heat and infrastructure damage, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported Friday.

The ministry asked subscribers to turn off air conditioners for one hour during peak consumption periods to help ensure a more stable electricity supply to the affected provinces, ISNA said.

Report: Hormuz Strait transit falls to three week low--

Hormuz traffic reaches three week low

MarineTraffic data indicate confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone fell to eight on 16 July, down from 15 a day earlier and marking a three week low. Seven of the eight transits followed the Iranian route, with no… pic.twitter.com/mEXVxsx40d

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) July 17, 2026

Friday was the first time that Iran's government acknowledged American "attacks on power infrastructure" during the campaign, which comes after Trump's prior warning to go after key civilian infrastructure.

Attacks on Bridges

And on the bridges: "Iranian media reported that five bridges were hit in the latest round of US strikes, as well as the train station in coastal Bandar Khamir and Iranshahr Airport ​in southeastern Iran," Reuters reports. An airport has also reportedly been attacked.

Iran has warned of an "infrastructure for infrastructure" tit-for-tat:

Kuwait says that one of the country's power and water desalinations plans suffered "severe damage" after an Iranian attack.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 17, 2026

There are signs of renewed attacks on rail as well, per NBC:

A railway junction station just west of Bandar Abbas was also hit, the state-owned IRIB news agency said. The highway and railway bridge strikes appeared aimed at cutting off Bandar Abbas, Iran’s main port, from roads leading toward Tehran, the capital.

While other routes still are open, the U.S. strikes could expand further, potentially disrupting both the movement of military materiel and goods needed for Iran’s 90 million people.

Regional Arab states which host American bases say they were busy overnight intercepting missiles and drones sent from Iran, including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and with reports of projectiles inbound even in Syria.

'Powerful Attack' on Qatar Base

The IRGC announced Friday that it carried out an attack on the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, asserting that it destroyed a long-range radar system and several US aerial refueling aircraft.

Iran's Chabahar port control tower COLLAPSES after more than a week of US strikes — Pete Hegseth boasts of destruction in X photo

Iranian FM Araghchi calls the attacks one of many US 'war crimes' committed over the past week pic.twitter.com/lDBz6ufJ5j

— RT (@RT_com) July 17, 2026

Its Aerospace Force described that carried out a "surprise and powerful" attack on Al Udeid Air Base, claiming to have taken out a long-range radar system along with the refueling aircraft parked there.

Per IRIB news agency, the elite Iranian force stated, "The American enemy and the hosts of its bases in the region should know that crossing red lines and attacking people and civilian infrastructure will have a very severe and miserable price. If the enemy continues this trend, more crushing responses are on the way; responses that will remain in the history of battles."

Iran's bridges have come under fresh strikes, via social media/X.

The IRGC further warned that American forces will "pay a heavy price" for what it called crossing "red lines" and targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. Tehran has not backed off its assertion of 'control' over the Strait of Hormuz - also calling this its red line.

The day or evening prior saw US Marines having conducted "a verification boarding" of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman - which the Pentagon characterized as part of operations enforcing the new naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 12:25

UMich Sentiment Extends Bounce From Record 46-Year-Lows As Gas Prices Ease

Having rebounded from record (46 year) lows in June, University of Michigan's preliminary July Sentiment survey was expected to show further improvement as gas prices fell since the US-Iran 'peace' MoU signing (before rising modestly in the last few days of the reignited conflict).

And indeed it did, headline Consumer Sentiment jumped from 49.5 to 54.4 (51.0 exp) - its highest since February...

"With the second straight month of 10% jumps," said UMich Dirctor of Surveys, Joanne Hsu, pointing out that "consumer sentiment climbed to its highest reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the pump in recent weeks."

All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions.

This month’s rise in sentiment was pervasive across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party.

Particularly strong increases were seen among consumers without a bachelor’s degree.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.6% in June to a still-elevated 4.2% this month. 

However, Hsu concludes by pouring cold water on the bounce by noting that sentiment’s upward momentum may prove difficult to sustain if recent declines in gas prices continue to reverse course.

Interviews for this release spanned June 23 to July 13, with more than 70% completed before the resumption of US strikes against Iran on July 7 and the subsequent increase in gas prices.

credittrader Fri, 07/17/2026 - 10:07

US Industrial Production Disappoints (Again) In June

US Industrial Production rose just 0.1% MoM in June (less than the 0.2% MoM rise expected), after also disappointing in May. That slowed the annual growth in production from 1.6% YoY to +1.1% YoY...

The recent blip higher in Capacity Utilization faded last month (76.1% vs 76.2% exp) with the down-trend seemingly still in tact...

If 'soft' survey data is in any way predictive of reality, then we should be seeing a sizable trend higher in industrial production...

...or maybe it's just another useless sentiment signal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 09:21

Historic NYC Church Torched In Confirmed Arson - City Rejects Save Plan As Demolition Ordered

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The FDNY has now confirmed what many suspected from the start: the massive fire that gutted the historic South Bushwick Reform Church in Brooklyn was intentionally set. The 1853 landmark, a Greek Revival structure that served generations of worshippers as both a house of faith and a community hub, is a total loss, and it will be completely torn down.

CBS New York reported the determination this week. Pastor James E. Steward II made clear the congregation never saw it coming.

"It was more than just a building. It's lives and generations of lives that have been touched," Steward said. "We have no known enemies."

CBS New York says the New York City Fire Department have come to the conclusion the historic Christian church recently set on fire was "intentionally set"

The South Bushwick Reform Church was built in 1863 and served generations of worshippers. It will be completely torn down... pic.twitter.com/npo7KfWQjV

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) July 16, 2026

He added: "Now we understand it is intentional, which brings another layer of grief to myself, as well as the congregation and the community." And: "Whoever is responsible for this ultimately has to answer to God."

No arrests have been made. Investigators previously noted a person of interest seen fleeing the scene on video shortly before the June 19 blaze erupted. The three-alarm fire brought down the steeple and left the wooden structure irreparable in the eyes of city officials.

Yet the congregation and local supporters pushed to preserve what remained. An independent structural engineer assessed the site as sound enough for restoration efforts focused on the attached fellowship hall and surviving elements. The city's Department of Buildings rejected the plan. Demolition is set to begin in August. The agency is led by Commissioner Ahmed Tigani.

!!! NYC Department of Buildings rejects plan to save a 174-year-old church in Bushwick that burned via arson

Demolition is set to begin in August

Ahmed Tigani leads the agency pic.twitter.com/KbIwgu1vux

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

This is not an isolated loss. Just weeks earlier, a 138-year-old church in Astoria, Queens, suffered a devastating "mystery" fire in April. The city rejected proposals to rebuild. The structure was demolished two weeks later.

> 138 year old church in Astoria, NY

> is damaged by mystery fire in April

> the city rejects proposal to rebuild

> church is demolished 2 weeks later pic.twitter.com/JsXaNpemhw

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 14, 2026

The losses mirror those in Europe, where a spate of church attacks have occurred.

In France, nearly 50 fires or arson attempts hit churches and Christian sites in a single recent year - a sharp rise - with authorities recording a Christian religious building vanishing every two weeks through fire, collapse, or deliberate damage.

Recent examples include the June blaze that destroyed most of the roof at the 17th-century Chapelle Sainte-Anne-des-Rochers in Brittany and the gutting of the Église Saint-Cyriaque in Montenach.

 

Canada has seen the same. Historic churches have been reduced to ashes with causes left unresolved and little urgency from authorities.

In the UK, churches face routine attacks while official outrage is selectively applied. A historic London church burned to the ground amid government silence, even as leaders scrambled to respond to incidents involving other faith sites.

 

In New York the physical symbols of the city's Christian heritage are vanishing under official processes that prioritize teardown over preservation. The South Bushwick congregation is left raising what funds it can while the city bills the church for its own demolition and prepares the site for whatever comes next. The Astoria church is already gone.

These buildings stood for more than a century as anchors of community and continuity. Their rapid destruction, followed by bureaucratic refusal to allow rebuilding, fits a larger pattern playing out from Brooklyn to Quebec to provincial France. The foundations that built Western cities are being burned and demolished.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/17/2026 - 08:55