Individual Economists

Newsom Prepares To Violate State Constitution To Save 'Democracy' In Redistricting Battle

Zero Hedge -

Newsom Prepares To Violate State Constitution To Save 'Democracy' In Redistricting Battle

Via American Greatness,

Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom is moving ahead with a controversial plan to redraw his state’s congressional maps by overriding the state’s non-partisan redistricting commission to counter redistricting moves by Republican lawmakers in Texas.

Newsom has launched a $100 million campaign that is backed by Planned Parenthood, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), the California Teachers Association (CTA) and the California Federation of Labor Unions and a handful of billionaire donors.

Lawmakers in California approved the redistricting plan on Thursday, labeling it “Democracy’s Best Bet.”

However, serious concerns remain as to whether Newsom’s plan can survive legal scrutiny for a number of reasons.

In 2010, a decisive percentage of California voters (62-38) passed Prop 20 which took redistricting out of the hands of politicians and created an independent citizens commission in the state constitution.

Constitutional attorney Mark Meuser says Newsom’s redistricting plan would violate California’s constitution by holding hearings on a bill less than 30 days after introduction and by drawing maps without authority.

Meuser also says Newsom’s plan runs afoul of the state constitution by drawing maps contrary to its requirements and by drawing mid-decade maps, which are prohibited.

Meuser further claims that Newsom will need to change the law that requires 131 days notice for special elections on constitutional amendments.

Newsom’s actions appear to put the will of billionaire donors and politically connected special interest groups ahead of the will of the people of California who voted to amend their state’s constitution to make redistricting less susceptible to political mischief.

Under these conditions, Newsom’s determination to save “democracy” appears to mean doing whatever it takes to claw back Democratic control of Congress.

Even if that means ignoring or undermining the will of millions of residents of California.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 17:30

Disney Wants Men Back In Theaters After Years Of Catering To Feminism

Zero Hedge -

Disney Wants Men Back In Theaters After Years Of Catering To Feminism

A recent report from Variety claims that the top echelons of Disney are scrambling to figure out how to entice the male demographic back into theaters, specifically Gen Z men.  Apparently, a media company alienating 50% of their audience base is, in fact, a bad business decision.  The mind boggles...   

Keep in mind, this is the same company that coined the phrase "The Force Is Female" and "Her-O" (instead of "Hero"...very clever).  This is the same company that tried to embed gay and trans characters into movies for toddlers.  This is the same company that actually went to war with the state of Florida to force them to accept LGBT and gender fluid indoctrination in public schools in opposition to the vast majority of the voting population. 

Finally, this is the same company that tried to bait and switch legendary male heroes for feminist "Girl Boss" heroes in every significant action/fantasy/sci-fi franchise they own the rights to. 

They turned Star Wars and Marvel, two of the biggest box office properties of all time, into the menstruation huts of the cinema world.  They went from making billions per project, to bombing harder than Nagasaki in theaters and in streaming. 

The crux of the problem is that media companies have systematically eliminated any factors that might remotely interest men.  This was not an accident, they did this by design.  This includes going to war against the "male gaze" and the archetype of the male protector (knight in shining armor).  Female protagonists alone are not a deal breaker, but remove all femininity, all sex appeal and browbeat the audience with anti-male messaging about how women "don't need no man" and there goes your biggest potential cash pool.    

Disney has been at the forefront of the woke deconstructionist agenda to rewrite or destroy every masculine western pop culture figure of the past 50 years.  They treated these icons as sacrificial lambs; joyfully slaughtered to appease the demonic gods of feminism.  And now, they want the men they openly despise to come running back with wallets in hand?

That's a new level of crazy.  But hey, that's Disney.

Even worse, the Variety story doesn't indicate that Disney ever plans to admit what they did wrong.  Anyone waiting around for an apology doesn't understand how the political left operates - They never admit they are wrong. 

As Variety notes:

"Leadership at Walt Disney Studios has been pressing Hollywood creatives in recent months, multiple sources tell Variety, for movies that will bring young men back to the brand in a meaningful way..."

"Every film studio is looking for better ways to convert young audiences into habitual moviegoers. Numerous studies show that Gen Z men in particular are a lonely, gaming-obsessed group who were hampered in their formative years by COVID-19 lockdowns — not the easiest segment to grasp..."

It sounds like they still hate the Gen Z male demographic while pretending as if those men are mysterious, stunted and hard to please.  At no point does Disney question their previous DEI production policies.  The obvious conclusion is that woke politics and the targeting of masculinity drove the male demographic away.  Almost every Disney film with overt woke messaging has lost significant earnings in the past five years.

Some people argue that Disney doesn't care about profits anymore and they are willing to sacrifice the box office in the name of promoting progressive ideology.  Clearly this is not true if the company (along with hundreds of other companies) is now scrambling to remove DEI from their marketing and find ways to get men back to the ticket counter. 

Even Disney still needs to bring in profits, not just to keep operations running but to maintain an image of cultural relevancy.  They can dip into their reserves and pump out all the woke propaganda they want, but it doesn't mean anything if no one is watching.  Eventually they will collapse, and it will be for nothing.  Their large cadre of leftist writers were laughing a few years ago at the "chuds"; now those talentless hacks are crying all the way to their local LA homeless shelter. 

The bottom line is that when Disney says they want to court the male audience, what they really mean is that they need the moderate and conservative male audience.  To do that requires more than original IPs, it requires a complete overhaul of the Hollywood system and a return to masculine formats more common in the 1980s and 1990s.     

Disney no longer has the intelligence or imagination power on staff to create anything inventive or original.  To appeal to conservative men, they would have to hire conservative writers, directors and producers, which they will never do.  Instead, they will go through the motions of rehashing old franchises in a desperate bid to appeal to people's nostalgia. This won't work and the majority of their products will continue to flop. 

Even if they remove all woke messaging from their content, new movies still have to be good.  They don't know how to make anything good and the DEI hires infesting their company halls will continue to drag them down into failure. Disney's renewed quest for the male audience is a case study in Get Woke, Go Broke.    

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 16:55

Money Wired To Mexico Hits A Decade Low As US Immigration Policies Take Hold

Zero Hedge -

Money Wired To Mexico Hits A Decade Low As US Immigration Policies Take Hold

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration is playing a role in the sharpest decline in monthly remittances to Mexico in more than a decade, analysts say.

According to numbers released this month from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), income from remittances abroad stood at $5.2 billion in June, a 16.2 percent decrease compared with June 2024.

That represents the largest drop in 13 years, according to a report from BBVA Research.

Remittances in 2024 represented approximately 3.4 percent of Mexico’s gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.

Remittances are transfers of money earned in the United States to such parties as relatives, friends, or business associates abroad. Ninety-nine percent of the remittances sent in the first half of 2025 were made through electronic funds transfers, according to the BBVA report.

The drop occurred after a decade of growth. Between 2013 and 2024, remittances to Mexico almost tripled to $64.7 billion from $23 billion, according to BBVA.

Analysts attribute the decline to President Donald Trump’s deportation policies and the availability of alternative methods for sending remittances.

Some have suggested that the U.S. dollar’s weaker position against the Mexican peso has played a part as well.

“I think it’s all of the above,” said Ana Valdez, CEO at The Latino Donor Collaborative, a think tank that examines the economic impact of Latinos in the United States.

While remittances are also sent by U.S. citizens and legal immigrants, illegal immigrants frequently make the payments to Mexico and other countries. Valdez told The Epoch Times that uncertainty over immigration status for some, such as those who may have received temporary protective status, could impact remittances to Mexico.

One obvious reason for the decline in money flowing across the border is that fewer Mexicans are entering the United States, Rubi Bledsoe, a researcher with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The Epoch Times. “It has been harder for them, I guess, to access legitimate avenues to seek asylum,” she said.

And those already in the United States may be changing their spending patterns.

Increased deportations and a reluctance on the part of employers to hire those without legal status could also be affecting remittances.

New York state immigration attorney Marina Shepelsky told The Epoch Times that illegal immigrants are lying low and have become more frugal out of fear of being deported.

“I think a lot of people are saving money now in case they’re deported, so they’re not sending anything home,” Shepelsky said.

She said she’s not surprised that people in the hotel, restaurant, and agriculture sectors, which depend more heavily on illegal immigrant labor, have been vocal about Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations and the prospect of losing workers.

“I’m worried about the effect on our economy,” Shepelsky said.

Deporting illegal immigrants is part of the Trump administration’s border security policy, prompting pushback in sanctuary states such as New York, Illinois, and California, where ICE has been conducting enforcement operations, sometimes at farms and workplaces, to find and deport those who are in the country unlawfully.

Democrats have long maintained that illegal immigrants are essential for farming, construction, and hospitality, claiming that most U.S. citizens don’t want those jobs.

Some experts disagree, saying that money leaving the homeland for foreign shores isn’t good for the U.S. economy.

According to a July study published by the Federation for American Immigration Reform, the U.S. economy loses at least $200 billion annually in remittances to foreign countries. The number is likely even higher now because the last reliable, bilateral data were published in 2021.

At the time, Mexico received the most remittances at $52.6 billion, according to the study.

Money being sent out of the country means that it isn’t being spent on goods and services in the United States. Tax revenue is also lost on the sale of goods and services that the remittance money would have generated.

Beyond that, the study pointed out that remittances intentionally or unintentionally support cartels, human smuggling, terrorists, and crime.

Remittance Tax

Republicans, who have argued that a remittance tax would discourage illegal immigration, were successful in getting a 1 percent remittance fee added to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

That tax becomes effective in January 2026 for certain types of remittances in which the sender provides cash, a money order, or a cashier’s check to remittance providers. Traditional remittance providers in the United States include companies such as Western Union and MoneyGram.

Vice President JD Vance cosponsored a similar bill when he was a U.S. senator from Ohio in 2023. That bill, called the WIRED Act, would have imposed a 10 percent fee on remittances flowing out of the United States.

“This legislation is a common-sense solution to disincentivize illegal immigration and reduce the cartels’ financial power,” Vance said at the time.

The revenue generated from a remittance tax under the bill could be used to fund increased border security measures and immigration enforcement efforts, proponents said.

On the other hand, Democrats contend that remittances increase the spending power of households in poorer countries, potentially reducing poverty and increasing demand for U.S. exports.

Illinois Democratic Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García spoke out against taxing remittances under the Republican-led bill this spring, saying that “would destabilize immigrant families and economies here and abroad.”

“When immigrants send money home, they’re not just helping loved ones—they’re keeping entire communities afloat in countries like Mexico, Nigeria, and the Philippines,” he said during debate on the bill.

Bypassing Taxes

There are ways around traditional money-wiring services—and the new remittance tax—and those alternate ways of sending funds across the border could be a factor in the declining remittance numbers, according to Valdez.

People can send money to their family members in Mexico without wiring it, Valdez said. She said people are finding other ways to deliver money, such as “getting together with the neighbors, getting together with people that are actually traveling and bringing cash.”

Some could also be taking advantage of a new system, the Bienestar card, Valdez said. The bank card system, set up by the Mexican government, can be used for remittances and is advertised as bypassing the 1 percent U.S. tax on remittances because it’s considered a bank-to-bank transfer that doesn’t involve cash.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 16:20

Think Tank Urges Dems To Drop These 45 Terms That Turn Off Normies

Zero Hedge -

Think Tank Urges Dems To Drop These 45 Terms That Turn Off Normies

A left-leaning think tank is urging Democrats to stop repelling normal human beings with the use of a deep grab-bag of woke words and phrases. The road to electoral Hell is paved with good intentions, writes Third Way: "The intent of this language is to include, broaden, empathize, accept, and embrace. The effect of this language is to sound like the extreme, divisive, elitist, and obfuscatory, enforcers of wokeness." 

Third Way is far from the first to warn leftists that their language is off-putting. Bill Maher has repeatedly pummeled them, and Vice President JD Vance has too, telling Laura Ingraham, "I mean, look, the autopsy for the Democrats, some free political advice from the president of the United States is: stop sounding like crazy people.” 

However, Third Way's communique is distinguished by its long and specific list of annoying jargon. "In this memo, we are putting a spotlight on the language we use that puts a wall between us and everyday people of all races, religions, and ethnicities. These are words that people simply do not say, yet they hear them from Democrats," said Third Way, which describes itself as a group of "passionate moderates" but is, in practice, an organization of center-leftists that evolved out of a gun control group, Americans for Gun Safety, and is led by a career Democratic pol, Jonathan Cowan.  

Third Way founder and president Jonathan Cowan and Rep.Nancy Pelosi (Photo: Third Way)

Elaborating on the theme with Politico this week, Third Way SVP Lanae Erickson said three potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates are exemplary communicators: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego. She said that Beshear was recently “talking about the fact that ‘justice-involved individuals’ is not a thing that any justice-involved individual would call themselves." 

"Over the years we’ve conducted, read, and analyzed hours upon hours of focus groups, and we’ve yet to hear a voter volunteer any of the phrases below except as a form of derision or parody of Democrats," said the group. The memo breaks down the long list of offending words and phrases into several categories. 

THERAPY SPEAK: According to Third Way, these words tell others "I’m more empathetic than you, and you are callous to hurting other’s feelings." They also make it "uncomfortable for many people to engage in hard topics," the DC-based group says. 

  • Privilege
  • Violence (as in “environmental violence”)
  • Dialoguing
  • Othering
  • Triggering
  • Microaggression / assault/ invalidation
  • Progressive stack
  • Centering
  • Safe space
  • Holding space
  • Body shaming

SEMINAR ROOM LANGUAGE:  Third Way says these words tell people “I’m smarter and more concerned about important issues than you." The group warns that "when we use words people don’t understand, studies show that the part of their brain that signals distrust becomes more active." 

  • Subverting norms
  • Systems of oppression
  • Critical theory
  • Cultural appropriation
  • Postmodernism
  • Overton Window
  • Heuristic
  • Existential threat to [climate, the planet, democracy, the economy]

ORGANIZER JARGON: "These words say "we are beholden to groups, not individuals," said Third Way.  

  • Radical transparency
  • Small ‘d’ democracy
  • Barriers to participation
  • Stakeholders
  • The unhoused
  • Food insecurity
  • Housing insecurity
  • Person who immigrated

GENDER/ ORIENTATION CORRECTNESS: Third Way says this jargon tells normies, “Your views on traditional genders and gender roles are at best quaint.” 

  • Birthing person/inseminated person
  • Pregnant people
  • Chest feeding
  • Cisgender
  • Deadnaming
  • Heteronormative
  • Patriarchy
  • LGBTQIA+

RACIAL CONSTRUCTS: "These words signal that talking about race is even more of a minefield" with the danger of being called a racist if you fail to use the latest "correct terminology," said Third Way.  

  • Latinx
  • BIPOC
  • Allyship
  • Intersectionality
  • Minoritized communities

CRIME TALK: Third Way warns that these terms tell normies that “the criminal is the victim. The victim is an afterthought." 

  • Justice-involved
  • Carceration
  • Incarcerated people
  • Involuntary confinement

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 14:35

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Median House Prices Up Only 0.2% YoY

Calculated Risk -

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Median House PriceClick on graph for larger image.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY

Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in July

California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Declared Conflicts Of Interest for CDC Advisers Dropped Before RFK Jr. Dismissals: Study

Zero Hedge -

Declared Conflicts Of Interest for CDC Advisers Dropped Before RFK Jr. Dismissals: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Conflicts of interest declared by vaccine advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) dropped significantly before the advisers were all dismissed by Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., according to a new study.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meets in Atlanta on June 25, 2025. Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

The reported conflict of interest prevalence rate at Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meetings declined from 13.5 percent between 2000 and 2004 to 6.2 percent between 2016 and 2024, researchers found after examining declared interests in a new tool released by the HHS, the CDC’s parent agency.

The average annual rates of conflicts reported by ACIP members fell from 42.8 percent to 5 percent.

There was also a decline over time in reported conflicts of interest for the parallel panel that advises the Food and Drug Administration, although the conflict reporting rate for that panel bounced back up from zero percent per meeting between 2008 and 2015 to 1.9 percent between 2016 and 2024.

The study was published by the Journal of the American Medical Association on Aug. 18.

“In the past, there have been high levels of reported conflicts on influential vaccine committees, but there has been substantial progress since the early 2000s,” study coauthor Genevieve Kanter, senior scholar at the Schaeffer Center and associate professor at the University of Southern California Sol Price School of Public Policy, said in a statement. “Although it’s important to remain vigilant, conflicts of interest on vaccine advisory committees have been at historically low levels for quite some time.”

The study was funded in part by the Harvey Motulsky and Lisa Norton-Motulsky Fund. Kanter and a coauthor also reported receiving funding from Arnold Ventures for unrelated work.

The study only examined declared conflicts of interest. An Epoch Times review found that multiple ACIP panel members in 2024 cast votes on vaccine recommendations even though they were receiving, or had recently received, money from companies that would be affected by the recommendations.

HHS is ensuring radical transparency and restoring public trust,” HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon told The Epoch Times via email. “Earlier this year we launched the ACIP Conflicts of Interest tool so the public can easily view historical conflicts.

“Secretary Kennedy is committed to eliminating both real and perceived conflicts to strengthen confidence in public health decisions.”

When dismissing all 17 members of ACIP in June, Kennedy said in an op-ed that “the committee has been plagued with persistent conflicts of interest and has become little more than a rubber stamp for any vaccine.”

He cited a 2000 report that found that conflicts of interest were rife among members of the CDC and Food and Drug Administration advisory panels. He also cited a 2009 inspector general report detailing unresolved conflicts of interest for a majority of special CDC government employees, such as ACIP members.

“These conflicts of interest persist,” Kennedy said at the time. “Most of ACIP’s members have received substantial funding from pharmaceutical companies, including those marketing vaccines.”

ACIP advises the CDC on immunization schedules and other vaccine-related matters. The CDC typically adopts its advice.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 14:00

Putin Vetoed Hypersonic Missile Strike On Zelensky's Office, Belarusian President Says

Zero Hedge -

Putin Vetoed Hypersonic Missile Strike On Zelensky's Office, Belarusian President Says

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Friday told reporters in an anecdote given to a press conference that Russian authorities had plans to directly attack Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's office in Kiev, but that President Putin rejected the proposed action.

What's more, Lukashenko said, is that it would have happened with the new Oreshnik missiles, which are medium-range hypersonics that Russian officials have touted as having the same destructive power as a low-yield nuclear strike.

Sputnik/Reuters

RT News conveyed the Belarusian president's remarks as describing unnamed figures in Russia suggested using the system against Kiev's "decision-making centers" - but that Putin dismissed the plan by saying "absolutely not".

"There would have been nothing left, if the strike would have taken place," added Lukashenko.

There was no specific date or timeline attached to the story, and thus no way of verifying it - but very likely Russian military planners have long researched and prepared a large range of military options to present to Kremlin decision-makers.

RT has detailed that the "Oreshnik, Russia’s newly developed medium-range hypersonic missile system which can travel at speeds of up to Mach 10, has already entered serial production."

"The system, which analysts claim cannot be intercepted, can carry nuclear or conventional warheads, and release multiple guided warheads," the report added.

A number of pro-Moscow hawks and Russian military bloggers have long questioned why Putin has appeared restrained in his approach to the war - for example having never hit Ukraine's military and intelligence headquarter buildings in the capital.

It could have something to do with Putin being very 'lawfare'-oriented in the way he does things. For example, the long-running conflict itself is still at the legal designation level of 'Special Military Operation' and so is not considered a full war from Moscow's point of view, which would require total societal mobilization.

Putin could also still be hoping for permanent settlement which leaves Russia in control, and with recognized sovereignty over the seized eastern territories and Crimea. It further seems that Russia is in no mood to try and occupy and administer the whole of Ukraine, fearing a disastrous quagmire and over-stretching of its armed forces.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 13:25

The New York Times Publishes False Energy And Climate Information And Refuses To Correct Its Errors

Zero Hedge -

The New York Times Publishes False Energy And Climate Information And Refuses To Correct Its Errors

Authored by Howard Gruenspecht via RealClearEnergy,

Articles addressing energy and climate topics in The New York Times (NYT) increasingly include Inaccurate data and false information. The problem is compounded by the paper’s failure to follow its own corrections policy when errors are called to its attention. 

Readers look to the NYT to deliver well-reasoned and fact-checked information and analysis in areas where they are not themselves experts. However, based on my professional focus on data and analysis of energy and related environmental issues over the past 45 years, which includes White House and Department of Energy senior positions in the Carter, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43, Obama, and Trump 45 administrations as well as work at leading universities and think tanks, NYT coverage of these subjects too often fails to live up to its own standards for accuracy and journalistic integrity. 

As a lifetime reader of the NYT, the frequency of errors and a refusal to fix them raises doubts regarding the accuracy of information presented on other topics. Whether or not the problem extends beyond energy and climate, the NYT readership clearly deserves better. 

Three recent NYT articles illustrate the problem: a July 22 article by Max Bearak, ostensibly reporting on remarks by UN Secretary-General Guterres’ on renewable energy; a May 26 article by Ivan Penn on competition between electric vehicles (EVs) and vehicles powered by internal combustion engine (ICEVs); and an April 23 column by David Wallace-Wells on the loss of cultural and political momentum for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These are considered in turn below, followed by some summary conclusions. 

  1. Max Bearak’s July 22 2025 article “U.S. Is Missing the Century’s ‘Greatest Economic Opportunity,’ U.N. Chief Says” (July 23 print edition).

The article opens with a review of UN Secretary-General Guterres’ remarks promoting renewable energy investment as both an economic opportunity and an environmental imperative. With deft mixing of quoted and unquoted words, Bearak reports that Guterres explicitly criticized the U.S. and other countries that follow its policies on fossil fuels. Though that may well be the Secretary-General opinion, that view is not borne out in the as-delivered transcript of his remarks.

The bulk of the article turns to a discussion of energy data and climate policy that attempts to explain why the current situation has arisen, noting that this material was “left unsaid” by Mr. Guterres. From this point forward the reporter’s own analysis seeks to establish that China, in contrast to the U.S., is constructively pursuing a green energy transition. Unfortunately, the article presents faulty and misleading data. 

In seeking to highlight China’s constructive role the article states “Over the past decade, China has gone from a largely coal-powered economy to one that is deploying more renewable energy than anywhere else.”  Growth in China’s production and deployment of a wide range of renewable energy technologies is indeed very impressive. However, data in the 2025 Statistical Review of Word Energy (a widely-respected source of energy data available online here), show that China is still largely powered by coal. In 2024 coal provided 58.1% of China’s total energy use (92.2 out of 158.9 exajoules), while in 2014 it accounted for 69.8% of China’s energy use (82.1 out of 117.6 exajoules). (FYI, 1 exajoule = 947.8 trillion British Thermal Units).Thus, coal still dominates in China’s energy mix, although coal use grew more slowly than total energy use over the past decade.   

Following its discussion of China’s renewable energy progress, the article turns to energy use and production the U.S. and other rich countries. It incorrectly states that “Relatively wealthy countries like the U.S., Canada, Australia and Saudi Arabia are also the world’s biggest producers of fossil fuels.”   Data in the 2025 Statistical Review show that China’s total production of coal, oil, and natural gas totaled 112.3 exajoules in 2024, 32% higher than that of the second leading producer, the U.S., which totaled 85.0 exajoules. Indeed, China’s production of coal (94.5 exajoules) alone exceeds the total fossil fuel production of any other country. Moreover, the 2024 data is no anomaly; China has been by far the world’s largest fossil fuel producer in every year since 2005.        

Despite having contacted the NYT corrections team and the author to point out these errors, as well as the article’s mischaracterization of the temperature-related aim of the 2015 Paris Agreement, no corrections have been made to date. 

  1. Ivan Penn’s May 26 2025 article “Electric Vehicles Died a Century Ago: Could that Happen Again?”  (May 27 print edition).

The article draws a parallel between the current competition between electric vehicles (EVs) and those with internal combustion engines (ICEVs) and the competition between them at the dawn of the automobile age. According to the article “scholars who have studied the earlier age of electric vehicles see parallels in their demise in the early decades of the 1900s and the attacks they are facing now. In both eras, electric cars struggled to gain acceptance in the marketplace and were undermined by politics.” 

Actions taken since the start of the Trump Administration to eliminate EV subsidies and to modify mandates and regulations that would have forced very rapid rates of EV adoption do matter.These actions are widely expected to slow, but not stop, EV market share growth, compared to the outlook assuming a continuation of Biden-era policies. However, available data and research clearly refute the claim that the market extinction of EVs a hundred year ago can be attributed to lawmakers of that era having “put their thumbs on the scale — and coming out on the side of oil” by enacting a very generous oil depletion allowance in 1926.

The oil policy changes discussed in the article cannot have played a major role in the demise of EVs a century ago because EVs were already on their deathbed before they occurred. Data on vehicle manufacturing and registrations show that at least 98%, and possibly more than 99%, of the 17.5 million vehicles registered to operate in 1925 were already ICEVs. The article avoids recognizing that reality, which directly undercuts its line of argument. 

The Department of Energy’s History of Electric Cars paper, prepared during the Obama Administration, specifically notes that the market share of EV sales peaked in 1899 and 1900 and declined thereafter, while the absolute level of EV production peaked in 1912 and declined thereafter. The early peaking of both EV market share and production occurred against the backdrop of explosive growth in both annual vehicle sales (from 4,200 in 1900 to 181,000 in 1910 and 3.74 million in 1925) and total vehicle registrations (from 8000 in 1900 to 459,000 in 1910 to 17.5 million in 1925). The History of Electric Cars paper also identifies the four major drivers of the EV decline in the early 20th century: improved roads, which favored ICEVs that could offer long range capability; oil discoveries in Texas that led to lower gasoline prices; the invention of the electric starter, which eliminated the need for a hand crank to start ICEVs; and mass production of ICEVs, which dramatically lowered their cost. The 1926 oil tax policy change does not make the list. Indeed, it is not even mentioned in the paper.

Federal policy can sometimes be a key driver of energy market outcomes, as has arguably been the case with the Price Anderson Act that enabled commercial nuclear power, the Natural Gas Act, and renewable fuel content mandates. That said, the fate of EVs a century ago shows that federal policies are not always a significant factor in market outcomes. Today’s EV advocates can draw solace from that point, since modern EVs have many positive attributes that should favor continued EV market share growth, and perhaps a future market-leading role, even with the recent removal of some policy stimulants.

  1. David Wallace-Wells’ April 23, 2025 article, “The World Seems to Be Surrendering to Climate Change” (subsequently revised twice).

Wallace-Wells discusses the declining cultural and political momentum for ambitious action to limit greenhouse gas emissions in recent years, noting that this trend applies both domestically and globally. 

In closing, the article observes that when climate advocates reckon with the loss of cultural and political momentum they often point to green records set each year. After reviewing some of these recent records and pointing out that a staggering share of global progress is taking place in China, Wallace-Wells notes that progress in the U.S. can be similarly breathtaking. It is here that problems in both the data cited and in the NYT corrections process are clearly evident.

In describing U.S. green energy progress, the original version of the article stated that electricity generation from renewables exceeded that from fossil fuels in 2024, which is woefully incorrect. Data readily available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration website and many other sources show that renewables provided 20% of 2024 US generation compared to 60% from fossil fuels. 

The NYT did issue a correction, but the initial one it posted on April 25 claimed that monthly electricity generated by renewables in the U.S. exceeded the amount generated using fossil fuels for the first time in March. That updated claim was also wrong, as fossil generation substantially exceeded renewable generation in both March 2024 and March 2025. When this new error was called to its attention, the paper issued a further correction, still dated April 25, that now appears on its website. The final correction took an approach that is simultaneously misleading for readers and instructive regarding how hard the NYT strives to avoid issuing clear substantive corrections that may embarrass its authors or cast doubt on its preferred narratives. Rather than simply strike the original errant point or its errant replacement, which are not at all central to the main focus of the article, the second correction reframes it as a comparison between generation from clean sources and fossil fuels. The trick here is that “clean sources” evidently includes include nuclear generation, which provides roughly 20% of U.S. generation, to finally make the comparison valid. However, nuclear is not once mentioned in the article or in the final correction note, which even suggests that the original article was also comparing generation from clean sources and fossil fuels. The losers here are the general readers, who would likely assume that “clean sources” is simply a synonym for “renewables” and never know that they had been badly misled.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, I could go on – the three articles reviewed above are only examples of a larger problem that has been evident for some time. 

The NYT, which has a very deep bench of staff who specialize in energy and climate matters, including the authors of these articles, must do better. Bearak should be able to correctly identify the world’s largest fossil fuel producer and coal’s continuing role as the dominant energy source in China. Penn should be able to recognize that history does not support the notion that EV developments today are repeating, or even closely rhyming with, the history of EVs a century ago. The temptation to craft tidy morality fable or reprise the origins dubious oil depletion policy first introduced in the mid-1920s that provided a huge windfall to the oil industry does not grant a license to posit a clearly invalid parallelism. The editors overseeing these articles also bear responsibility. 

Finally, even when factual errors do slip into articles, a sound and well-implemented corrections policy can greatly mitigate the damage. The stated NYT correction policy that “when we learn of a mistake, we acknowledge it with a correction” is sound, but its current implementation is atrocious. The so-called Grey Lady of journalism should be blushing in shame. The paper quickly corrects errors that are of minor importance to most readers, such as misspelled names, incorrect job titles, or inaccurate event dates. However, when substantive factual errors are identified and reported to the paper, as in the examples discussed above, its response is to either stonewall, as in the case of the Bearak article, or to obfuscate and evade, as in its correction of the comparison of renewable and fossil fuel generation levels in the Wallace-Wells article. In the latter case, the common observation that the cover-up is often worse than the crime clearly applies.  

The NYT must always remember that the purpose of corrections is to inform the reader of what is actually true, rather than to protect its writers from embarrassment or protect preferred narratives that cannot withstand scrutiny. 

Howard Gruenspecht served in senior White House positions in the Carter and Bush 41 Administrations, in Deputy Assistant Secretary and Office Director roles in the Department of Energy policy office during the Bush 41 and Clinton Administrations, and as the Deputy Administrator (top non-political position) of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which provides independent energy data and analysis, during the Bush 43, Obama, and Trump 45 Administrations. 

* * *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 12:50

"I Have No Idea": Justice Department Official Raised Objections To Ill-Defined Biden Pardons

Zero Hedge -

"I Have No Idea": Justice Department Official Raised Objections To Ill-Defined Biden Pardons

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The House Oversight Committee is investigating the use of the autopen by Biden officials as allegations grow that President Joe Biden had little idea of some of the actions taken under his name, from executive orders to pardons. Now, the Committee has disclosed that at least one senior official warned that he had “no idea” what the parameters were for Biden’s blanket pardons and that the public was being misled about the pardons only applying to non-violent individuals.

Associate Deputy Attorney General Brad Weinsheimer told the Office of White House Counsel they needed an additional statement from the President as to his intent and the scope of the pardon:

“I think the language ‘offenses described to the Department of Justice’ in the warrant is highly problematic and in order to resolve its meaning appropriately, and consistent with the President’s intent, we will need a statement or direction from the President as to how to interpret the language…I have no idea what interpretation the incoming Administration will give to the warrant, but they may find this interpretation attractive, as it gives effect to the language but does not go beyond the four corners of the warrant.”

So, at least for this senior Justice Department official, it was not just Biden who may have had little idea of what pardons were being issued under his name. The confusion was shared by implementing attorneys. That is a serious problem in the use of this presidential power by unseen, unnamed staff members.

Weinsheimer also flagged how even the stated intent of Biden in barring violent individuals was being disregarded due to the ill-defined criteria:

“One other important note – in communication about the commutations, the White House has described those who received commutations as people convicted of non-violent drug offenses. I think you should stop saying that because it is untrue or at least misleading… As you know, even with the exceedingly limited review we were permitted to do of the individuals we believed you might be considering for commutation action, we initially identified 19 that were highly problematic.”

House Oversight Chairman James Comer is pursuing this investigation despite opposition from Democratic members and, of course, many in the media. Yet, there is mounting evidence that Biden was clueless on major decisions made in his Administration, including signing a major executive order on natural gas exports. In this latest controversy, a veteran Justice official did not have a clue about the scope of the pardons as staff members just compiled lists of people whom they wanted to include in the presidential order.

What is particularly disconcerting is how accountability for any abuse is made more difficult by the large number of staff contributing to these lists and lack of clearly defined decision makers.  With Biden abdicating his own responsibility, staffers were allowed to effectively add names to a signed blank page, exercising a presidential power with the level of circumspection of an inter-office memo.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 11:40

Canada's Refusal To Cooperate With DEA On Fentanyl "Superlab" Investigation Fueled Cross-Border Tariffs  

Zero Hedge -

Canada's Refusal To Cooperate With DEA On Fentanyl "Superlab" Investigation Fueled Cross-Border Tariffs  

President Trump's new hemispheric defense strategy, stretching across North, Central, and South America, now includes the deployment of 4,000 troops and three guided-missile destroyers positioned in international waters off Venezuela, as part of a broader campaign to dismantle command-and-control hubs of narco-terrorists and purge Chinese-linked drug and money-laundering networks from the region. 

Last week, the Pentagon positioned three Aegis guided-missile destroyers (the USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, and USS Sampson) directly off the coast of Venezuela as new force posturing takes hold in the region, with the Pentagon's crosshairs focused on narco-terrorists fueling America's drug death crisis that claims 100,000 lives per year. 

Simultaneously, attention turns to Canada, which, like Mexico and other surrounding countries, remains a very weak partner in the region as the Trump administration advances its hemispheric defense strategy to clean up the Americas ahead of the 2030s. Trump's cleanup of the Western hemisphere is almost comparable to his micro efforts to restore law and order in crime-ridden Washington, D.C. - and soon, in many other cities nationwide left in ruins by failed Democratic leadership that allowed violent crime and open-air drug markets to flourish. 

Sam Cooper of the investigative outlet The Bureau has uncovered in recent years that North America's fentanyl crisis is not just a drug death crisis wiping out military-aged men and women by the hundreds of thousands - it's also a sprawling international money-laundering machine, run through Chinese Triads, Mexican cartels, and Canadian financial networks in a massive transnational crime web that fuels the crisis. Some view this operation to subvert Washington as Chinese irregular warfare, explained here.

Cooper's work, as we've covered in recent years, spans Chinese narcos using laundering networks via TD bank and other Canadian financial institutions to "Breaking Bad-style" superlabs in Canada to all things China subverting the Americas... 

Cooper's latest report focuses on how Canada's federal police (RCMP) refused to cooperate with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in 2022 on a probe into a British Columbia fentanyl "superlab" tied to Chinese precursor shipments. It was only after the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Iranian-Canadian businessman Bahman Djebelibak and his Health Canada–licensed Valerian Labs that the RCMP belatedly launched its own investigation, without sharing critical information with the U.S. Gov't. 

The superlab in Falkland, B.C. was eventually raided and dismantled, with investigations suggesting the lab was able to produce drugs on an industrial scale:

  • Drugs: 54kg fentanyl (95 million lethal doses), 390kg meth, 35kg cocaine, 15kg MDMA.

Last year, Derek Maltz, Acting DEA Administrator, commented on the botched RCMP investigation, blasting the RCMP: "The way they conducted business was disgusting, honestly. We can't have that kind of activity when our countries are being attacked at levels we've never seen."

Former current and senior U.S. officials told Cooper that Ottawa's problem isn't just incompetence - it's structural. Weak, antiquated laws. It appears politics paralyze leadership, and corruption runs all the way to the top.

* * *

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Meanwhile, the investigation into the Falkland raid was a dark reality: Chinese underground bankers in Vancouver and Toronto move hundreds of millions through Canadian and U.S. banks, laundering cartel money and financing fentanyl labs. None of this is new, but what is, in the era of Trump, will all be dismantled.

Source: Heritage Foundation

Fast forward today, Ottawa has learned the hard way with a tariff war with Trump, following years of inaction and botched investigations into fentanyl superlabs in its country that fuel America's drug death crisis. 

Here's an excerpt of Cooper's latest report:

Canada’s federal police refused to investigate or cooperate with the United States Drug Enforcement Administration on a British Columbia fentanyl superlab probe tied to chemical-precursor shipments from China into Vancouver in late 2022, according to senior U.S. officials. More than a year later — only after the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Iranian-Canadian businessman Bahman Djebelibak and his Health Canada–licensed company Valerian Labs, naming them as part of a Chinese fentanyl trafficking syndicate that Washington sought to disrupt — did the RCMP finally open a siloed investigation. The force continued to refuse coordination or information sharing with the American agents who had initiated the case. In an exclusive interview, Derek Maltz, DEA Acting Administrator in 2025 with oversight of the matter, called the B.C. superlab case a “major disaster.”

This explosive information, confirmed to The Bureau by current and former senior U.S. officials, has never before been reported in the Falkland, B.C., superlab case, which was covered internationally by outlets including The New York Times. It amounts to a rare public rebuke that elevates the matter from a Canadian policing failure into a high-consequence geopolitical dispute.

It also helps explain Washington’s decision on July 31 to impose 35 percent tariffs on Canada, reinforcing President Donald Trump’s claim that senior officials had warned him Ottawa failed to cooperate or devote sufficient resources to interdictions against Chinese- and Mexican-linked drug trafficking networks blamed for killing hundreds of thousands of North Americans. Three weeks ago, in a statement underscoring intelligence tied to the Falkland lab case, the White House said: “Mexican cartels are increasingly operating fentanyl labs in Canada.” It added: “Canada-based drug trafficking organizations maintain robust ‘super labs,’ mostly in rural and dense areas in western Canada, some of which can produce 44 to 66 pounds of fentanyl weekly.”

‘A major disaster on that big lab in British Columbia’

In multiple interviews with senior officials — including Derek Maltz, who retired this year after Mexico carried out an unprecedented wave of extraditions of dozens of cartel leaders to the United States — The Bureau confirmed devastating details of the Falkland superlab in British Columbia, hidden in mountainous terrain between Vancouver and Calgary. The case became public only in October 2024 — to the surprise of DEA investigators — when the RCMP announced it had dismantled what it called the most sophisticated drug laboratory ever uncovered in Canada, capable of producing up to 95 million potentially lethal doses of fentanyl. Investigators seized a staggering half-ton of narcotics: 54 kilograms of fentanyl, 390 kilos of methamphetamine, 35 kilos of cocaine, 15 kilos of MDMA, smaller amounts of cannabis, and large quantities of precursor chemicals from China. Police estimated the street value at about $500 million.

The raid also exposed the militarized posture of Mexican cartel–style operations, with 89 firearms — including handguns, AR-15-style rifles and submachine guns, many loaded — along with explosive devices, ammunition, silencers, high-capacity magazines, body armor, and roughly $500,000 in cash. So far, only a man named Gaganpreet Singh Randhawa, believed to be a lower level suspect, has been charged after the RCMP’s raid on the Falkland lab and related Vancouver-area properties. What Ottawa failed to share with Canadians, U.S. sources say, is that the DEA’s Newark, New Jersey office had already delivered the case to Canadian authorities through the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa nearly two years earlier — warning of precursor shipments tied to Djebelibak’s company, Valerian Labs. Canadian police, the officials said, not only declined to cooperate but also delayed launching their own siloed probe until after Washington imposed sanctions on Djebelibak in October 2023.

The way they conducted business was disgusting, honestly,” Maltz said in an August 2025 interview. “And we can’t have that kind of activity when our countries are being attacked at levels that we’ve never seen in the history of our countries.”

Maltz, who limited his remarks to high-level confirmations, agreed with numerous other U.S. officials interviewed by The Bureau that the Falkland breakdown was neither isolated nor new — but part of a recurring pattern of refusal and delay in Ottawa’s dealings with American law enforcement.

“Over the years, we’ve had historical issues with the RCMP not sharing properly, and most recently there was a major disaster that happened on that big lab in British Columbia,” Maltz confirmed.

“The superlab was part of some ongoing stuff going on with DEA New Jersey. There was a major frustration with the DEA agents in the United States that had investigative equity and investigative knowledge on this particular case. And we were trying to share and cooperate. And it was a major problem.”

Like other senior U.S. experts interviewed by The Bureau this year regarding Canada’s increasing exploitation by Chinese and Mexican fentanyl networks, Maltz said Ottawa’s repeated inability to investigate and prosecute major drug trafficking and money laundering networks — and its frequent refusal to cooperate with international allies — stems from a combination of weak, outdated laws and ineffective leadership.

Other U.S. and Canadian police experts also warned they believe the RCMP and relevant Canadian agencies such as Canada Border Services suffer from significant corruption concerns.

“It goes down to the basic information sharing, the antiquated laws, that people are not stepping up and not leading the efforts,” Maltz said of the Falkland lab case. “When I was Acting Administrator, I met with the current leadership and it was actually sad because these guys came to see me and they want to do the right thing. They say all the right things, but they’re so far behind and the laws are so antiquated and so archaic.”

In an interview, Donald Im, who retired in 2022 after a long career as a senior DEA official, described the synthetic narcotics overdose crisis in North America — fueled by Chinese Communist Party chemical suppliers and cartel distribution networks — as a “slow motion, weapons of mass destruction that exposes the vulnerability of whole nations and regions.”

As part of the DEA’s Special Operations Division, Im oversaw sprawling investigations into global Chinese money laundering systems and fentanyl precursor supply chains. He said he provided support to the New Jersey DEA probes that became a linchpin of the agency’s strategy and indirectly tied into the Falkland superlab case. These investigations exposed how Chinese underground bankers — often operating from Vancouver and Toronto — were moving staggering nine-figure flows — in some cases, hundreds of millions within months — through U.S. and Canadian financial institutions, as well as through international trade routes between China, Mexico, Canada, and South America, to sustain the fentanyl trade.

Those innovative cases, Im said, connected Chinese laundering networks across North America to an extraordinarily wide array of actors, demonstrating that seemingly local probes connected to the same global syndicates moving precursors from China, laundering through Canadian and U.S. banks, and producing fentanyl on an industrial scale in hidden labs across Canada.

Im added, in his opinion: “If only one person was arrested in that sophisticated Falkland laboratory? It is either the RCMP is incompetent or, politically, they’ve been neutered.”

That assessment is supported by previous case studies. Another source for this story — deeply troubled by the RCMP and Canadian prosecutors’ decisions not to pursue major targets uncovered in probes of drug-laundering networks tied to Chinese, Iranian, and Mexican syndicates — said they learned the RCMP, while conducting a major investigation into Iranian state-linked drug launderers in Toronto and Montreal, stumbled onto a Chinese suspect moving $600 million in just six months. Yet when briefed, the DEA was told the RCMP would not pursue the case, citing a different investigative focus.

We reached out to the RCMP. They said “No”

While Derek Maltz spoke only at a high level about Washington’s concerns with Ottawa’s handling of the Falkland case, another U.S. official provided a more detailed account of the behind-the-scenes drama between American and Canadian agencies.

The U.S. government source, who had direct knowledge of the case and requested anonymity due to ongoing investigations, said that in late 2022 the DEA’s Newark, New Jersey office alerted colleagues at the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa to precursor shipments from China bound for Valerian Labs, Inc., a Port Coquitlam–based company owned by Bahman Djebelibak, publicly known as “Bobby Shah" ... 

The rest of the report can be viewed on The Bureau's Substack... 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 11:05

How Great Powers Fall Apart

Zero Hedge -

How Great Powers Fall Apart

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We're humoring our self-delusion.

How do great powers come undone? We can start with a destructive force without equal: self-delusion.

Emperor Norton comes to mind in this context. In 1859, in the Gold Rush-enriched city of San Francisco, Joshua Norton, a bankrupt businessman, declared himself "Emperor of these United States" in a proclamation that he signed "Norton I, Emperor of the United States."

This grandiosity played well in the rough and tumble "get rich quick, then lose it all" zeitgeist of San Francisco, and rather than be abused or disabused, Norton was "treated deferentially in San Francisco and elsewhere in California, and currency issued in his name was honored in some of the establishments he frequented."

In other words, his self-delusion was humored. On a grand scale, the same can be said of Great Powers: they humor their own self-delusion.

The progression of a Great Power from self-delusion to collapse was insightfully traced out by Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik in the late 1960s, when Amalrik predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, the lone voice to make such a bold prediction at the apex of Soviet power.

Amalrik's analysis was nuanced, drawing upon the human weaknesses that blind us to our own self-deception and rosy assumptions. Chief among these is the comforting belief that "it will all work out because it's always worked out before," an assumption that blinds us to the extraordinary nature of the crisis and the decay that we avoid recognizing beneath the surface of normal life.

Amalrik noted that the primary motivation of the various classes and interest groups was self-preservation, seeking to maintain whatever each faction currently held in terms of wealth and power. The misguided assumption made by all was that the system was so stable and powerful that they didn't need to concern themselves with anything beyond securing their position in the system.

As the system destabilizes, nobody notices because they're focused solely on the infighting borne of self-preservation.

He was also alert to the government's role in mediating the forces seeking to suppress reforms as dangers to the status quo and those seeking to force reforms on a sclerotic systems, and how seemingly small policy decisions can grease the skids to rapidly unfolding crises few imagined were even possible.

One of Amalrik's analytic techniques is both novel and insightful. This excerpt from How a Great Power Falls Apart: Decline Is Invisible From the Inside explains the concept of working backward from whatever outcome seems unlikely or even impossible:

Amalrik also provided a kind of blueprint for analytic alienation. It is actually possible, he suggested, to think your way through the end of days. The method is to practice living with the most unlikely outcome you can fathom and then to work backward, systematically and carefully, from the what-if to the 'here's-why.' The point isn't to pick one's evidence to fit a particular conclusion. It is rather to jolt oneself out of the assumption of linear change--to consider, for a moment, how some future historian might recast implausible concerns as inevitable ones."

Catastrophic outcomes are considered impossible because the status quo views itself as already having the means to handle any crisis. There's nothing to be learned from others and no reason to even ponder unlikely outcomes, and this creates a toxic blend of hubris and blindness.

"Society was becoming more complicated, more riven with difference, more demanding of the state but less convinced that the state could deliver. What was left was a political system far weaker than anyone--even those committed to its renewal--was able to recognize."

Those in power reckon they have the means to deal with any problem. Suppress dissent, buy off a troublesome constituency, print more money, etc. This confidence reflects the dominant political mythologies of the Great Power and its people. Reformers believe the status quo is capable of systemic reform, those resisting reform believe the system will endure without any reforms, and both are disconnected from reality: the status quo is no longer capable of real reforms, and left on autopilot, it is heading off a cliff.

"Amalrik offered a technique for suspending one's deepest political mythologies and posing questions that might seem, here and now, to lie at the frontier of crankery.

The powerful aren't accustomed to thinking this way. But in the lesser places, among the dissidents and the displaced, people have had to be skilled in the art of self-inquiry. How much longer should we stay? What do we put in the suitcase? Here or there, how can I be of use? In life, as in politics, the antidote to hopelessness isn't hope. It's planning."

I often refer to author Ray Huang's summary of how the mighty Ming Dynasty fell apart:

"The year 1587 may seem to be insignificant; nevertheless, it is evident by that time the limit for the Ming dynasty had already been reached. It no longer mattered whether the ruler was conscientious or irresponsible, whether his chief counselor was enterprising or conformist, whether the generals were resourceful or incompetent, whether the civil officials were honest or corrupt, or whether the leading thinkers were radicals or conservatives--in the end they all failed to reach fulfillment."

Nothing is as it seems. As correspondent Ray W. so presciently observed some years ago, "It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically."

Put another way, we're humoring our self-delusion.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 10:30

Big Tech Could Soon Use Brain Chips To Read Your Innermost Thoughts: Study

Zero Hedge -

Big Tech Could Soon Use Brain Chips To Read Your Innermost Thoughts: Study

A new study out of Stanford University reveals that neural implants, also known as brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), might not just help paralyzed individuals communicate - they could potentially lay bare your innermost thoughts to Big Tech.

Published in the medical journal Cell, the research shows these devices can decode brain signals to produce synthesized speech faster and with less effort.

BCIs work by using tiny electrode arrays to monitor activity in the brain’s motor cortex, the region controlling speech-related muscles. Until now, the tech relied on signals from paralyzed individuals actively trying to speak. The Stanford team, however, discovered that even imagined speech generates similar, though weaker, signals in the motor cortex. With the help of artificial intelligence, they translated those faint signals into words with up to 74% accuracy from a 125,000-word vocabulary.

“We’re recording the signals as they’re attempting to speak and translating those neural signals into the words that they’re trying to say,” said Erin Kunz, a postdoctoral researcher at Stanford’s Neural Prosthetics Translational Laboratory.

But this technological leap has raised red flags among critics who warn of a dystopian future where your private thoughts could be exposed.

Nita Farahany, a Duke University law and philosophy professor and author of The Battle for Your Brain, sounded the alarm telling NPR, “The more we push this research forward, the more transparent our brains become.”

Farahany expressed concern that tech giants like Apple, Google, and Meta could exploit BCIs to access consumers’ minds without consent, urging safeguards like passwords to protect thoughts meant to stay private.

We have to recognize that this new era of brain transparency really is an entirely new frontier for us,” Farahany said.

While the world fixates on artificial intelligence, some of the tech industry’s heaviest hitters are pouring billions into BCIs. Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, has raised $1.2 billion for his Neuralink venture, which is now conducting clinical trials with top institutions like the Barrow Neurological Institute, The Miami Project to Cure Paralysis, and the Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi.

Now, another tech titan is entering the fray.

OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman is launching Merge Labs to challenge Musk’s Neuralink. Backed by OpenAI’s venture arm and valued at $850 million, Merge Labs is seeking $250 million in funding, according to the Financial Times. While Altman will serve as a co-founder alongside Alex Blania of the iris-scanning World project, sources say he won’t take an operational role.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 09:55

Which Western Security Guarantees For Ukraine Might Be Acceptable To Putin?

Zero Hedge -

Which Western Security Guarantees For Ukraine Might Be Acceptable To Putin?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

He might hypothetically agree that the resumption of NATO’s present support for Ukraine (arms, intelligence, logistics, etc.) in the event of another conflict wouldn’t cross Russia’s red lines but he’s unlikely to compromise on the issue of Western troops in Ukraine once the present conflict ends.

Steve Witkoff’s claim that Putin allegedly agreed to the US offering Ukraine “Article 5-like protection” during the Anchorage Summit, which Trump repeated during his White House Summit with Zelensky and a handful of European leaders, raises the question of what form this could hypothetically take if true. Assuming for the sake of analysis that he did indeed agree to this, it’s important to clarify exactly what Article 5 entails. For starters, it doesn’t obligate allies to dispatch troops if one of them is attacked.

Per the North Atlantic Treaty, each member only has to take “such action as it deems necessary”, which could include “the use of armed forces” but doesn’t have to. As was explained earlier this year here, “Ukraine has arguably enjoyed the benefits of this principle for the past three years despite not being a NATO member since it’s received everything other than troops from the alliance.” Arms, intelligence, logistical, and other forms of support have already been provided to Ukraine in the spirit of Article 5.

It might therefore be the case that Putin agreed that such “Article 5-like protection” could be resumed in the event of another conflict without crossing Russia’s red lines. Although Russia objects to Ukraine’s remilitarization after the present conflict ends, it’s possible that it could agree to this too as part of a grand compromise in exchange for some of its other goals being met as explained here. What Russia doesn’t agree to, however, is the dispatch of Western troops to Ukraine after the present conflict ends.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova declared on the day of the White House Summit that “We reiterate our long-standing position of unequivocally rejecting any scenarios involving the deployment of NATO military contingents in Ukraine”. This position isn’t expected to change since one of the reasons behind the special operation is to stop NATO’s expansion inside Ukraine. Western boots on the ground there afterwards would therefore amount to the perceived failure of Russia’s primary goal.

This would especially be the case if they’re deployed along the Line of Contact, but their deployment west of the Dnieper in parallel with the creation of a demilitarized “Trans-Dnieper” region controlled by non-Western peacekeepers as proposed here could hypothetically be a compromise. That said, Russia would prefer for there to only be non-Western peacekeepers, if any at all. The deployment of foreign military forces, regardless of the country, could embolden Ukraine to stage false-flag provocations.

To summarize, in the order of the most hypothetically acceptable Western security guarantees to Ukraine to the least hypothetically acceptable from Russia’s perspective, these are:

1) the resumption of Western support for Ukraine only if another conflict erupts and without any peacekeepers at all;

2) continued Western support but with non-Western peacekeepers;  and

3) continued Western support, Western troops west of the Dnieper, and non-Western troops in a demilitarized “Trans-Dnieper” region.

The scope of Ukraine’s demilitarization and the extent of Western security guarantees to it after the present conflict ends are of the utmost importance for Russia in order to prevent Ukraine from once again being weaponized as a launchpad for Western aggression. It’s therefore highly unlikely that Russia will compromise much on this issue, especially the scenario of Western troops in Ukraine. Russia might be more flexible on other issues, but on this one, it might prove unwavering.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/23/2025 - 09:20

Schedule for Week of August 24, 2025

Calculated Risk -

The key indicators this week include July New Home Sales, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for July, and Case-Shiller house prices for June.

----- Monday, August 25th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 630 thousand SAAR, up from 627 thousand in June.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

----- Tuesday, August 26th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for a 4.0% decrease in orders.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 2.3% in May and is expected to slower further in June.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

----- Wednesday, August 27th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 28th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 236 thousand from 235 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the advance estimate.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in this index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for August. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August.

----- Friday, August 29th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.9% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August).

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review Chair Jerome H. Powell: “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Taylor Sheridan’s Extreme Productivity: The prolific mind behind “Sicario” and “Yellowstone” only started his writing career at 40. The realest deadlines (a young family, a $350m ranch) have pushed him to grind at an unbelievable pace. (SatPost by Trung Phan)

Lisa Su Runs AMD—and Is Out for Nvidia’s Blood: While everyone else has been talking about Nvidia’s GPUs, Lisa Su has discreetly turned AMD into a chipmaking phenom. And as the US-China tech war rages, she’s at the center of it all. (Wired)

Brain Food: Alzheimer’s breakthroughs of mice and men, the stranger-than-fiction phenomenon of comb jelly intelligence, RIP Dobby, and three recommendations. (The Garden of the Forking Paths)

How America Got Its Baby Back, Baby Back, Baby Back: Chili’s was once a relic of the ’90s. Then it blew past its competitors—and conquered casual American dining. In its Texas test kitchen, I saw how. (Slate)

The West is bored to death: Our nihilistic politics are a product of the crushing ennui and spiritual vacancy of modern life. (New Statesman)

• The heir’s property: one man’s journey to reclaim family land in the American South: An in-depth look at the issue of land passed down through generations, told through the lens of one man’s struggle to retain land purchased a century ago by his great-grandfather, who was born into slavery during the Confederacy. (USA Today)

The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis: The party is bleeding support beyond the ballot box, a new analysis shows. (New York Times) see also How the Democrats Became the Party That Brings Pencils to a Knife Fight: Will the battle over Texas’ gerrymandering lead to a new era for the party? (New York Times)

Getting to the Moon or Mars? Musk and Bezos Tackle Space Travel’s Refueling Problem: Spacecraft that could fuel up in orbit would be less weighted down at liftoff and fly deeper into space. (Wall Street Journal)

50 Years After ‘Born to Run,’ We Took a Trip to Springsteen Country: Few albums capture a time and place the way Bruce Springsteen’s ‘Born to Run’ evokes 1970s New Jersey. A pair of superfans hit the road to see how much of that world remains. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. The firm manages over $7 trillion in assets.


Consumer spending is under downward pressure from slowing job growth, student loan payments restarting and deportations lowering the number of consumers


Source: Apollo

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To Afford Seattle Rent, You Need Nearly $91,000 A Year

Zero Hedge -

To Afford Seattle Rent, You Need Nearly $91,000 A Year

Renting in Seattle now requires a much higher income than just a few years ago, according to new Zillow data sourced by Axios.. To afford the typical monthly rent in the metro area, a household must earn nearly $91,000 annually — about 23% more than five years ago.

Zillow uses the standard guideline that rent should take up no more than 30% of household income. Based on that, the typical Seattle-area rent of $2,271 in April would require an annual income of $90,840, the 11th-highest threshold among major U.S. metros.

Seattle’s relatively high household incomes help cushion the blow for many families: the region’s median household income reached $110,744 in 2023, well above Zillow’s affordability mark. But single earners face tighter constraints. Census data show Seattle’s per capita income was $82,508 last year — leaving many individuals below the level needed to comfortably pay average rent.

Axios writes that nationally, typical rents stood at $2,024 per month in April, requiring about $80,949 in annual income — roughly $10,000 less than in Seattle.

Housing costs have surged since pre-pandemic, with rents growing quite a bit faster than wages,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow. “This often leaves little room for other expenses, making it particularly difficult for those hoping to save for a down payment on a future home.

The findings highlight the widening gap between housing costs and wages across the country, even in regions with relatively strong incomes like Seattle.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 23:00

When Smartphones Get Smarter, Do We Get Dumber?

Zero Hedge -

When Smartphones Get Smarter, Do We Get Dumber?

Authored by Makai Allbert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As Mohamed Elmasry, emeritus professor of computer engineering at the University of Waterloo, watched his 11- and 10-year-old grandchildren tapping away on their smartphones, he posed a simple question: “What’s one-third of nine?”

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Freepik, Getty Images

Instead of taking a moment to think, they immediately opened their calculator apps, he wrote in his book “iMind Artificial and Real Intelligence.”

Later, fresh from a family vacation in Cuba, he asked them to name the island’s capital. Once again, their fingers flew to their devices, Googling the answer rather than recalling their recent experience.

With 60 percent of the global population—and 97 percent of those younger than 30—using smartphones, technology has inadvertently become an extension of our thinking process.

However, everything comes at a cost. Cognitive outsourcing, which involves relying on external systems to collect or process information, may increase one’s risk of cognitive decline.

Habitual GPS (global positioning system) use, for example, has been linked to a significant decrease in spatial memory, reducing one’s ability to navigate independently. As AI applications such as ChatGPT become a household norm—with 55 percent of Americans reporting regular AI use—recent studies found that it is resulting in impaired critical thinking skills, dependency, loss of decision-making, and laziness.

Experts emphasize cultivating and prioritizing innate human skills that technology cannot replicate.

Neglected Real Intelligence

Referring to his grandkids and their overreliance on technology, Elmasry explained that they are far from “stupid.”

The problem is that they are not using their real intelligence.

They—and the rest of their generation—have grown accustomed to using apps and digital devices—unconsciously defaulting to internet search engines such as Google rather than thinking something through.

Just as physical muscles atrophy without use, so too do our cognitive abilities weaken when we let technology think for us.

A telling case is now called the “Google effect,” or digital amnesia, as shown in a 2011 study from Columbia University.

The current generation has grown accustomed to using apps and digital devices. hughhan/unsplash, Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Betsy Sparrow and colleagues at Columbia found that individuals tend to easily forget information that is readily available on the internet.

Their findings show that people are more likely to remember things they think are not available online. They are also better at recalling where to find information on the internet than recalling the information itself.

A 2021 study further tested the effects of Googling and found that participants who relied on search engines such as Google performed worse on learning assessments and memory recall than those who did not search online.

The study also shows that Googlers often had higher confidence that they had “mastered” the study material, indicating an overestimation in learning and ignorance of their learning deficit. Their overconfidence might be the result of having an “illusion of knowledge” bias—accessing information through search engines creates a false sense of personal expertise and diminishes people’s effort to learn.

Overreliance on technology is part of the problem, but having it around may be just as harmful. A study published in the Journal of the Association for Consumer Research discovered that “the mere presence” of a smartphone reduced “available cognitive capacity”—even if the phone was off or placed in a bag.

This “brain drain” effect likely occurs because the presence of a smartphone taps into our cognitive resources, subtly allocating our attention and making it harder to concentrate fully on the task at hand, researchers say. Not only does excessive tech use impair our cognition, but also, clinicians and researchers have noticed that it is linked to impaired social intelligence—the innate aspects that make us human.

Becoming Machine-Like

In the United States, children ages 8 to 12 typically spend four to six hours per day looking at screens, while teenagers may spend up to nine hours daily looking at screens. Further, 44 percent of teenagers feel anxious, and 39 percent feel lonely without their phones.

Excessive screen time reduces social interactions and emotional intelligence and has been linked to autistic-like symptoms, with longer durations of screen use correlated with more severe symptoms.

Dr. Jason Liu, a medical doctor who also has a doctorate in neuroscience, is a research scientist and founding president of the Mind-Body Science Institute International. Liu told The Epoch Times that he is particularly concerned about children’s use of digital media.

He said he has observed irregularities in his young patients who spend excessive time in the digital world—noticing their mechanical speech, lack of emotional expression, poor eye contact, and difficulty forming genuine human connections. Many exhibit attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, responding with detachment and struggling with emotional fragility.

We should not let technology replace our human nature,” Liu said.

Corroborating Liu’s observations, a JAMA study followed about 3,000 adolescents with no prior ADHD symptoms over 24 months and found that a higher frequency of modern digital media use was associated with significantly higher odds of developing ADHD symptoms.

As early as 1998, scientists introduced the concept of the “Internet Paradox,” which is that the internet, despite being a “social tool,” leads to antisocial behavior.

Observing 73 households during their first years online, researchers noted that increased internet use was associated with reduced communication with family members, smaller social circles, and heightened depression and loneliness.

However, a three-year follow-up found that most of the adverse effects dissipated. The researcher explained this through a “rich get richer” model; introverts experienced more negative effects from the internet, while extroverts, with stronger social networks, benefited more and became more engaged in online communities, mitigating negative effects.

Manuel Garcia-Garcia, global lead of neuroscience at Ipsos, who holds a doctorate in neuroscience, told The Epoch Times that human-to-human connections are vital for building deeper connections and that while digital communication tools facilitate connectivity, they can lead to superficial interactions and impede social cues.

Supporting Liu’s observation of patients becoming “machine-like,” a Facebook emotional contagion experiment, conducted on nearly 700,000 users, manipulated news feeds to show more positive or negative posts. Users exposed to more positive content posted more positive updates, while those seeing more negative content posted more negative updates.

This demonstrated that technology can nudge human behavior in subtle yet systematic ways. This nudging, according to experts, can make our actions and emotions predictable, similar to programmed responses.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 22:35

HHS Rolls Out 'MAHA In Action' To Spotlight Health Reforms

Zero Hedge -

HHS Rolls Out 'MAHA In Action' To Spotlight Health Reforms

Early in his tenure as Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vowed to make transparency a key element of the department under his leadership.

This week, HHS announced the debut of MAHA in Action, an online platform highlighting federal initiatives and state-led reforms implementing the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda.

MAHA in Action offers visibility into how health care reforms are working in communities across the country, according to a HHS press release.

“Make America Healthy Again isn’t just a slogan—it’s a mission statement, and we’re delivering results, fast,” Kennedy said.

“The MAHA in Action tracker puts the wins on the map. It gives the public, the press, and policymakers real-time visibility into how we’re restoring health, integrity, and accountability to every corner of our public health agency.”

As Jeff Louderbeck reports for The Epoch Times, MAHA in Action features updates on federal reforms underway across multiple HHS agencies. Among them are removing petroleum-based dyes and harmful additives from the U.S. food supply, restoring public trust in vaccine safety and scientific transparency, closing the GRAS (Generally Recognized As Safe) loophole that allows chemicals into food with unknown safety data, and finding the root causes of the chronic disease epidemic, including autism.

One transparency-centered tool on MAHA in Action involves the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Conflicts of Interest.

In recent months, HHS has dismissed all 17 members of the ACIP panel, ended the CDC’s COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for pregnant women and healthy children, and ordered the removal of mercury from influenza vaccines.

After it voted to advise officials to stop recommending influenza shots that have mercury, the remade ACIP said it plans to look at multiple other vaccines.

The ACIP conflicts of interest section on MAHA in Action includes declarations disclosed by voting members during ACIP public meetings since 2000.

“ACIP members are required to declare any potential or perceived conflicts of interest that arise in the course of ACIP tenure and any relevant business interests, positions of authority or other connections with organizations relevant to the work of the ACIP,” according to MAHA in Action.

MAHA in Action also includes an interactive map that follows Kennedy’s MAHA tours and a list of state policies that align with the MAHA agenda.

Among the key “victories” since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House include 12 states with USDA-approved SNAP waivers restricting candy and sugary drinks, eight states banning synthetic dyes or select additives from school meals, two states requiring warning labels on products with unsafe ingredients, 22 states limiting cell phone use in schools, and states restricting lab-grown meat, expanding access to Ivermectin, and removing fluoride from municipal water supplies among other initiatives, MAHA in Action reported.

“Americans are tired of toxic food, failed science, and chronic disease becoming the norm,” Kennedy said.

We’re turning the tide through bold federal action at HHS and state-driven reforms. The momentum is real, and we’re just getting started,” he added.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Washington on May 22, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The MAHA Commission, chaired by Kennedy and established by Trump, “was on track to submit its Make Our Children Healthy Again Strategy report to the president on August 12th,” Kush Desai, a spokesman for the White House, told The Epoch Times in an email on Aug. 11.

“The report will be unveiled to the public shortly thereafter as we coordinate the schedules of the President and the various cabinet members who are a part of the commission,” he added.

The commission’s first report was released in May. It largely details problems with the health of Americans and attributes the rise of chronic diseases among children to a poor diet full of ultraprocessed foods, exposure to chemicals, a lack of physical activity, and the overprescription of medications.

Trump established the commission in February and said that the commission should “study the scope of the childhood chronic disease crisis and any potential contributing causes, including the American diet, absorption of toxic material, medical treatments, lifestyle, environmental factors, Government policies, food production techniques, electromagnetic radiation, and corporate influence or cronyism.”

Per the order, the commission was required to submit its first report to the president within 100 days. It was also required to present a strategy to Trump on how to address chronic diseases, including obesity, within 180 days. That deadline was Aug. 12.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 22:10

Microsoft Failed To Disclose Key Details About Use Of China-Based Engineers In U.S. Defense Work, Record Shows

Zero Hedge -

Microsoft Failed To Disclose Key Details About Use Of China-Based Engineers In U.S. Defense Work, Record Shows

Authored by Renee Dudley with research by Doris Burke via ProPublica,

Microsoft, as a provider of cloud services to the U.S. government, is required to regularly submit security plans to officials describing how the company will protect federal computer systems.

Yet in a 2025 submission to the Defense Department, the tech giant left out key details, including its use of employees based in China, the top cyber adversary of the U.S., to work on highly sensitive department systems, according to a copy obtained by ProPublica. In fact, the Microsoft plan viewed by ProPublica makes no reference to the company’s China-based operations or foreign engineers at all.

The document belies Microsoft’s repeated assertions that it disclosed the arrangement to the federal government, showing exactly what was left out as it sold its security plan to the Defense Department. The Pentagon has been investigating the use of foreign personnel by IT contractors in the wake of reporting by ProPublica last month that exposed Microsoft’s practice.

Our work detailed how Microsoft relies on “digital escorts” — U.S. personnel with security clearances — to supervise the foreign engineers who maintain the Defense Department’s cloud systems. The department requires that people handling sensitive data be U.S. citizens or permanent residents.

Microsoft’s security plan, dated Feb. 28 and submitted to the department’s IT agency, distinguishes between personnel who have undergone and passed background screenings to access its Azure Government cloud platform and those who have not. But it omits the fact that workers who have not been screened include non-U.S. citizens based in foreign countries. “Whenever non-screened personnel request access to Azure Government, an operator who has been screened and has access to Azure Government provides escorted access,” the company said in its plan.

The document also fails to disclose that the screened digital escorts can be contractors hired by a staffing company, not Microsoft employees. ProPublica found that escorts, in many cases former military personnel selected because they possess active security clearances, often lack the expertise needed to supervise engineers with far more advanced technical skills. Microsoft has told ProPublica that escorts “are provided specific training on protecting sensitive data” and preventing harm.

Microsoft’s reference to the escort model comes two-thirds of the way into the 125-page document, known as a “System Security Plan,” in several paragraphs under the heading “Escorted Access.” Government officials are supposed to evaluate these plans to determine whether the security measures disclosed in them are acceptable.

In interviews with ProPublica, Microsoft has maintained that it disclosed the digital escorting arrangement in the plan, and that the government approved it. But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other government officials have expressed shock and outrage over the model, raising questions about what, exactly, the company disclosed as it sought to win and keep government cloud computing contracts.

None of the parties involved, including Microsoft and the Defense Department, commented on the omissions in this year’s security plan. But former federal officials now say that the obliqueness of the disclosure, which ProPublica is reporting for the first time, may explain that disconnect and likely contributed to the government’s acceptance of the practice. Microsoft previously told ProPublica that its security documentation to the government, going back years, contained similar wording regarding escorts.

Former Defense Department Chief Information Officer John Sherman, who said he was unfamiliar with the digital escorting process before ProPublica’s reporting, called it a “case of not asking the perfect question to the vendor, with every conceivable prohibited condition spelled out.”

In a LinkedIn post about ProPublica’s investigation, Sherman said such a question “would’ve smoked out this crazy practice of ‘digital escorts.’” His post continued: “The DoD can’t be exposed in this way. The company needs to admit this was wrong and commit to not doing things that don’t pass a common sense test.”

Experts have said allowing China-based personnel to perform technical support and maintenance on U.S. government computer systems poses major security risks. Laws in China grant the country’s officials broad authority to collect data, and experts say it is difficult for any Chinese citizen or company to meaningfully resist a direct request from security forces or law enforcement. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has deemed China the “most active and persistent cyber threat to U.S. Government, private-sector, and critical infrastructure networks.”

Following ProPublica’s reporting last month, Microsoft said that it had stopped using China-based engineers to support Defense Department cloud computing systems. The company did not respond directly to questions from ProPublica about the security plan and instead issued a statement defending the escort practice.

Escorted sessions were tightly monitored and supplemented by layers of security mitigations,” the statement said. “Based on the feedback we’ve received, however, we have updated our processes to prevent any involvement of China based engineers.”

Sen. Tom Cotton, a Republican who chairs the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, wrote to Hegseth last month suggesting that the Defense Department needed to strengthen oversight of its contractors and that current processes “fail to account for the growing Chinese threat.”

“As we learn more about these ‘digital escorts’ and other unwise — and outrageous — practices used by some DoD partners, it is clear the Department and Congress will need to take further action,” Cotton wrote. He continued: “We must put in place the protocols and processes to adopt innovative technology quickly, effectively, and safely.”

Since 2011, the government has used the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program, known as FedRAMP, to evaluate the security practices of commercial companies that want to sell cloud services to the federal government. The Defense Department also has its own guidelines, which include the citizenship requirement for people handling sensitive data.

Both FedRAMP and the Defense Department rely on “third party assessment organizations” to evaluate whether vendors meet the government’s cloud security requirements. While the government considers these organizations “independent,” they are hired and paid directly by the company being assessed. Microsoft, for example, told ProPublica that it enlisted a company called Kratos to shepherd it through the initial FedRAMP and Defense Department authorization processes and to handle annual assessments after winning federal contracts.

On its website, Kratos calls itself the “guiding light” for organizations seeking to win government cloud contracts and said it “boasts a history of performing successful security assessments.”

In a statement to ProPublica, Kratos said its work determines “if security controls are documented accurately,” but the company did not say whether Microsoft had done so in the security plan it submitted to the Defense Department’s IT agency.

Microsoft told ProPublica that it has given demonstrations of the escort process to Kratos but not directly to federal officials. The security plan makes no reference to any such demonstration. Kratos did not respond to questions about whether its assessors were aware that non-screened personnel could include foreign workers.

A former Microsoft employee who worked with Kratos through several FedRAMP accreditations compared Microsoft’s role in the process to “leading the witness” to the desired outcome. “The government approved what we paid Kratos to tell the government to approve. You’re paying for the outcome you want,” said the former employee, who requested anonymity to discuss the confidential proceeding.

Kratos said it “vehemently denies the characterization from an unnamed source that Kratos’ services are pay for play.” In its statement, Kratos said that it has been “accredited and audited by an independent, non-profit industry group” for factors that “include impartiality, competence and independence.”

“Kratos hires and retains the most technically sophisticated, certified security and technology experts,” the company said, adding that its personnel “are beyond reproach in their work.”

For its part, Microsoft said hiring Kratos was simply part of following the government’s cloud assessment process. “As required by FedRAMP, Microsoft relies on this certified assessor to conduct independent assessments on our behalf under FedRAMP’s supervision,” Microsoft said in its statement.

Still, critics take issue with the FedRAMP process itself, saying that the arrangement of a company paying its auditor presents an inherent conflict of interest. One former official from the U.S. General Services Administration, which houses FedRAMP, likened it to a restaurant hiring and paying for its own health inspector rather than the city doing so.

The GSA did not respond to requests for comment.

The Defense Information Systems Agency, the Defense Department’s IT agency, reviewed and accepted Microsoft’s security plan. Among those involved were senior DISA officials Roger Greenwell and Jackie Snouffer, according to people familiar with the situation. Neither responded to phone messages seeking comment, and DISA and Defense Department spokespeople did not respond to ProPublica’s request to interview them.

A DISA spokesperson declined to comment for this article, saying “any responses will come from Office of the Secretary of Defense Public Affairs.”

The Office of the Secretary of Defense did not respond to questions about whether Greenwell and Snouffer, or anyone at DISA, understood that Microsoft’s China-based employees would be supporting the Defense Department’s cloud. A spokesperson also did not directly respond to questions about Microsoft’s System Security Plan but in an emailed statement said the information in such plans is considered proprietary. The spokesperson noted that “any process that fails to comply with” department restrictions barring foreigners from accessing sensitive department systems “poses unacceptable risk to the DOD infrastructure.”

That said, the office left open the door to the continued use of foreign-based engineers with digital escorts for “infrastructure support,” saying that it “may be deemed an acceptable risk,” depending on factors that include “the country of origin of the foreign national” being escorted. The department said in such scenarios foreign workers would have “view-only” capabilities, not “hands-on” access. In addition to China, Microsoft has operations in India, the European Union and elsewhere across the globe.

In a statement to ProPublica on Friday, Hegseth’s office said the Pentagon’s investigation into tech companies’ use of foreign personnel “is complete and we have identified a series of possible actions the Department could take.” A spokesperson declined to describe those actions or say whether the department would follow through with them. It’s unclear whether Microsoft’s security plan or DISA’s role in approving it was a part of the review.

“As with all contracted relationships, the Department works directly with the vendor to address concerns, to include those that have come to light with the Microsoft digital escort process,” Hegseth’s office said in the statement.

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 21:45

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