Trump: European Leaders Will Return This Week To Discuss Russia–Ukraine War

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that European leaders would return to the United States in the coming days to discuss the administration’s ongoing efforts to end the Russia–Ukraine War.

Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews after a quick visit to New York, Trump said that leaders would be coming to the White House “individually” to meet with him. He didn’t provide specifics on who would be visiting but suggested that the meetings would be held across Monday and Tuesday.

Discussing the ongoing Russia–Ukrainian conflict, Trump said he was “not happy” about the current state of negotiations, Russia, or “anything having to do with that war.”

“I’m not happy. I’m not happy about the whole situation,” he said. He said that the two Eastern European nations were losing, “between Ukraine and Russia, 7,000 soldiers every single week. It’s such a horrible waste of humanity. So no, I am not thrilled with what’s happening.”

Pursuing an end to the conflict—which began with Russia’s invasion of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and escalated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s mainland in February 2022—was a pillar of Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Speaking to reporters, Trump expressed confidence that the conflict “is going to get settled.”

Since his first term, Trump has sought to negotiate peaceful resolutions to international conflicts. He admitted that he had thought the Eastern European conflict “would have been maybe the easiest one to settle of all. But with war, you never know what you’re getting.”

Nevertheless, Trump reiterated, “I believe we’re going to get it settled.”

Across August, Trump has escalated his efforts to bring an end to the conflict.

On Aug. 16, Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss an end to the conflict.

Though Putin announced some broad areas of agreement between the two superpowers, no formal agreement was reached.

“There’s no deal until there’s a deal,” Trump said at the time. He added, “We didn’t get there, but we have a very good chance of getting there.”

The two leaders did not mention a cease-fire or other key elements of negotiations, such as security guarantees for Ukraine or further U.S. sanctions on Russia and its supporters.

When later asked what key points the two sides disagreed on, Trump declined to say.

A few days later, Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a contingent of other European leaders at the White House.

At the time, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was ready to bring an end to the war and wanted a face-to-face meeting with Putin.

He said such meetings are the only way to move forward with the “complicated and painful issues” the discussions will entail.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 14:40

Appeals Court Upholds E. Jean Carroll's $83.3 Million Judgment Against Trump

Via Headline USA,

A federal appeals court has upheld a civil jury’s finding that President Donald Trump must pay $83.3 million to E. Jean Carroll for his repeated social media attacks against the longtime advice columnist after she accused him of sexual assault - even though a jury ruled that she lied about her rape allegations.

Carroll, whose advice column ran in the women’s magazine Elle from 1993 to 2019, has reportedly accused at least six prior men of raping her, including former CBS President Les Moonves.

Her bizarre social-media history also included posts making light of sexual trauma and even asking her followers if they found Trump sexually attractive.

Trump was prevented from submitting that evidence in his trial.

Despite her dubious track record, on Monday the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Trump’s appeal of the defamation award, finding that the “jury’s damages awards are fair and reasonable.”

In case you didn’t know, E Jean Carroll has accused many men of raping or sexually assaulting her…

Including a babysitter’s boyfriend, a dentist, a camp counselor, an unnamed college date, an unnamed boss and CBS chief executive Les Moonves - Per The National Pulse

This is why…

— Ryan Fournier (@RyanAFournier) January 27, 2024

Trump had argued that he should not have to pay the sum as a result of a Supreme Court decision expanding presidential immunity.

His lawyers had asked for a new trial.

A civil jury in Manhattan issued the $88.3 million award last year following a trial that centered on Trump’s repeated social media attacks against Carroll over her claims that he sexually assaulted her in a Manhattan department store in 1996.

That award followed a separate trial, in which Trump was found liable for sexually abusing Carroll and ordered to pay $5 million.

That award was upheld by an appeals court last December.

In a memoir, and again at a 2023 trial, Carroll described how a chance encounter with Trump at Bergdorf Goodman’s Fifth Avenue in 1996 started with the two flirting as they shopped, then ended with a violent struggle inside a dressing room.

Carroll said Trump slammed her against a dressing room wall, pulled down her tights and forced himself on her.

A jury found Trump liable for sexual assault, but concluded he hadn’t committed rape, as defined under New York law.

Trump repeatedly denied that the encounter took place and accused Carroll of making it up to help sell her book.

He also said that Carroll was “not my type.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 13:20

GM CEO Mary Barra Sells 40% Of Stock As EV Slowdown Pauses Cadillac Lyriq, Vistiq Production 

A General Motors spokesperson confirmed to the Detroit Free Press that CEO Mary Barra sold 994,863 shares last month, valued at roughly $35.4 million. The sale accounted for 40% of Barra's personal stake in the struggling legacy automaker, which is facing a slowdown in electric vehicle sales.

Barra's fire sale, one of her largest ever, included shares linked to performance rewards dating back to 2011, plus a wind-down of her estate-planning trust. It should be noted that these sales occurred under her 10B5-1 plan. 

Here's the breakdown (view Form 4 here) of the selling:

• Sold 297,000 shares at an average price of $58.24, making up to roughly $17.3 million.

• Sold 235,000 in money options at a strike price of $39, adding up to roughly $4.5 million.

• Sold 375,024 in the money options with a strike price of $35.49, adding up to roughly $8.5 million.

• Sold 87,839 shares from the annuity trust priced at $58.13, making roughly $5.1 million.

The Detroit Free Press cited Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who said Barra's stock sale should not be viewed as alarming. 

"We are not concerned about this, and it's about shares that hit some triggers," Ives said, adding, "Barra remains a key part of the GM's success, and we do not view this as a needle mover."

Barra's selling raises a new question: What does that say about GM's future?

Bloomberg data shows that Barra's stock sales began in the summer of 2024 and have continued ever since, reducing her total position to 2018 levels. Barra became CEO in January 2014.  

The selling comes as the Detroit Free Press announced in recent days that GM's Spring Hill Assembly plant in Tennessee will experience several weeks of downtime. The plant makes the Cadillac Lyriq SUV and Vistiq. 

Additionally, GM's Fairfax Assembly plant in Kansas City, Kansas, and its CAMI Assembly Plant line in Ingersoll, Ontario, are adjusting production plans.

"General Motors is making strategic production adjustments in alignment with expected slower EV industry growth and customer demand by leveraging our flexible ICE and EV manufacturing footprint," GM spokesman Kevin Kelly told Detroit Free Press last week. 

Sales are slowing.

Only time will tell what 17 months of selling stock means for the future of GM's leadership.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 13:00

Why Diversification Is Failing In The Age Of Passive Investing

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Diversification has been the backbone of “buy and hold” strategies for the last few decades. It was a boon to financial advisors who couldn’t actively manage portfolios, and it created a massive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) industry that allowed for even further simplification of investing. The message was basic: “Buy a basket of assets, dollar cost average, and given enough time, you will grow your wealth.”

But where did that marketing revolution come from? Based on the premise of index investing, it created massive firms like Vanguard, Fidelity, BlackRock, and others. For that answer, we need to go back in time to 1952. Then, Harry Markowitz revolutionized investment strategy with his portfolio choice theory. His work, for which he received a Nobel Prize, gave rise to what we now know as Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which proposed that the best portfolios don’t focus on individual securities but on how groups of assets interact.

The goal was to combine uncorrelated assets to reduce overall volatility while optimizing returns. This model encouraged investors to spread risk through diversification. Critically, it assumes that assets wouldn’t all move together in times of stress. This theory served as the bedrock of portfolio construction for decades, especially for institutional investors. The strategy worked well before the turn of the century, when sectors rotated leadership and assets moved independently based on distinct economic drivers. Back then, diversification across asset classes, sectors, and geographies was a reliable way to reduce portfolio risk.

However, over the last 15 years, following the financial crisis, the investing environment has changed. Monetary and fiscal interventions, global central bank interest rate policies, the maturity of algorithmic and computerized trading strategies, and concentration have reduced diversification’s value. As shown, any portfolio “diversified” between large, mid, and small-cap stocks, international and emerging markets, real estate, and gold, has significantly underperformed being invested solely in the S&P 500 index. Furthermore, in times of crisis, like 2020, the diversification failed to protect investors from the downturn as correlations went to “1.”

The reality is that markets have changed.

The assumptions that supported MPT, uncorrelated assets, stable relationships, and rational price behavior, have eroded. Central banks have injected liquidity, distorted yields, and suppressed volatility. Meanwhile, passive investing has reshaped how money flows into stocks.

The basic premise of diversification is under pressure from structural shifts that Markowitz could not have anticipated.

Passive Investing’s Impact on Market Structure

Passive investing has grown from a niche strategy into the dominant force in equity markets. Index funds and ETFs now account for over half of U.S. equity ownership. These vehicles allocate capital based on market capitalization, not valuation, fundamentals, or business quality. As more money flows into these funds, the largest companies receive the lion’s share of new capital. That’s created a powerful feedback loop, where price drives flows, and flows drive price.

This shift has radically changed the effectiveness of diversification. Investors who think they’re diversified across multiple ETFs often have overlapping exposure to the same few mega-cap names. For example, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are top holdings in technology ETFs, dividend funds, and large-cap growth portfolios. In the U.S., there are roughly 4000 ETFs, and 771, approximately 20%, own Apple. Therefore, if you own an S&P index fund, a Nasdaq index ETF, and a technology-focused ETF, you have multiple holdings of the same companies. This overlap increases portfolio risk and concentration. What looks like diversification is often just duplicated exposure dressed up as balance.

As noted in “The Bull Market Is Alive And Well,” the top 10 stocks have a hefty weighting in the S&P 500 index, which absorbs $0.36 of every dollar invested. Furthermore, the top 10 stocks impact the S&P 500 index the same as the bottom 440 stocks combined.

Furthermore, the top ten stocks in the S&P 500 now account for more than 70 percent of the index’s return. These names dominate the performance of most portfolios, even those that appear broad on the surface. As passive flows continue to distort market mechanics, the ability of traditional diversification to reduce risk has declined. Assets that once behaved independently now rise and fall together, leaving portfolios more vulnerable when markets correct.

But that is where we find the demise of Modern Portfolio Theory, which assumes that asset classes will not move in perfect unison. Historically, this was true. Sector correlations typically ranged between 0.3 and 0.6, allowing diversification to smooth out returns. When one part of the market fell, others could rise or stay flat. That dynamic gave portfolios resilience. But today, those correlations are breaking down. During market stress, correlations spike as high as 0.9. Nearly every asset class sells off together, erasing the protective benefit of diversification.

This shift is driven by the rise of passive ownership, which has increased the linkage between stocks, sectors, and even asset classes. Academic research from INSEAD and UC Irvine confirms that companies with high passive ownership become more volatile and exhibit stronger co-movement, especially during sell-offs. Central bank interventions have added another layer of distortion by suppressing price discovery and inflating asset prices indiscriminately. Liquidity flows, not fundamentals, now drive much of market behavior.

Even portfolios designed to be “all-weather” or “risk-parity” have failed to deliver protection during sharp downturns. Diversification fails when everything is tied to the same flows and narratives. The illusion of balance breaks down exactly when it is most needed. This environment has made it harder to rely on traditional asset allocation strategies.

Therefore, given this change to market dynamics, investors must now think differently about managing risk.

New Approaches to Diversification in a Concentrated Market

Yes, diversification still matters. In fact, it matters more now than ever. While the traditional benefits of diversification have weakened due to high correlations and market concentration, the need to reduce risk remains unchanged. The objective is not to eliminate volatility, but to manage it intelligently. That means ensuring portfolios can withstand market downturns while still participating in upside when leadership changes or new trends emerge.

Surface-level diversification is no longer enough in a market increasingly driven by passive flows and dominated by a few mega-cap names. Owning multiple funds or asset classes does not guarantee protection if the underlying exposures overlap. Investors must go deeper and look beyond labels and into the actual drivers of risk and return. Here are seven strategies to help achieve more effective diversification in today’s environment:

1. Limit Overlap Across Holdings: To reduce concentration risk in your portfolio, ensure you limit duplicate positions across your funds.

2. Prioritize High-Conviction, Quality Holdings: Reduce broad exposure in favor of companies with consistent earnings, low debt, and durable competitive advantages. Quality stocks tend to be more resilient across market cycles.

3. Allocate by Investment Factors, Not Just Sectors: Diversify based on factors like value, size, momentum, and low volatility. These traits respond differently to economic conditions, creating more effective diversification than sector spreads alone.

4. Don’t Forget About Cash: When uncertain markets arrive, remember the value of cash as a hedge against volatility risk.

5. Use Active Management Where It Adds Value: Tactical funds or active managers can navigate around crowded trades and avoid the systematic exposures built into passive indexes.

6. Incorporate Alternative Allocation Models: Explore risk-based strategies like Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP), which adapt to changing correlations and distribute risk more evenly than traditional mean-variance approaches.

7. Monitor Correlations Over Time: Correlations are dynamic, especially in periods of stress. Review your portfolio regularly to ensure your holdings are not moving in lockstep when it matters most.

Each of these steps is designed to restore the core purpose of diversification: risk control without sacrificing the opportunity for return.

In a market where broad ownership no longer guarantees safety, discipline, and deeper analysis make the difference.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 12:40

Outlook For Job Seekers Suddenly Craters To Record Low Amid Steady Inflation Expectations, NY Fed Finds

After sliding every month since April, short-term inflation expectations (inside a 1 year horizon) as polled by the Ny Fed survey of consumer expectations appear to have bottomed and after rising modestly in July from 3.0% to 3.1%, rose again in August, this time to 3.2%. At the same time, inflation expectations were They were unchanged for the 3rd consecutive month at the three-year horizon at 3.0%, and also unchanged at 2.9% for the five-year-ahead horizon (median inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, increased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons and declined at the five-year-ahead horizon.)

One place where consumers may be disappointed is that median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the third consecutive month at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023. However, as recent data has shown, home price growth is stalling fast, and at this rate will turn negative within a month or two at which point home price expectations will reprice dramatically.

What is curious is what while short-term inflation expectations rose fractionally, the declined across the board when disaggregated by various components. to wit: median year-ahead commodity price change expectations declined by 0.9% points for the cost of college education to 7.8%, by 1.0% point for rent to 6.0%, and by 0.4 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 8.8%. Median year-ahead price change expectations remained unchanged for gas (3.9%) and food (5.5%) for the third consecutive month.

Turning to household finance expectations, the median expected growth in household income remained unchanged for the second consecutive month at 2.9% in August, equaling its 12-month trailing average. Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.0%. The series has been moving in a range between 4.8% and 5.2% since February 2025.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated somewhat, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.

While the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.8% to 13.1%, it remained below its 12-month trailing average of 13.5%. 

Somewhat amusingly, median year-ahead expected growth in government debt declined by 2.5% points to 6.6%. Spoiler alert: this will not happen. What also will not happen is that average interest rates on savings accounts will rise - on the contrary, once the Fed starts cutting rates in 2 weeks, expect much lower rates - but that didn't stop 24.3% of respondents, up 0.7% on th month, from expecting that saving accounts will be higher in 12 months.

On the flip side, perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago worsened with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations became more dispersed. A larger share of households are expecting a worse financial situation, and an equally larger share of households are expecting a better financial situation in one year from now. 

And yet despite the apparent deterioration in outlook, at least households can still cling to hopes for higher stock prices: the mean perceived probability that US stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.6 percentage point to 38.9%.

While the latest inflation and household finance readings were relatively tame the same can not be said for expectations about the Labor Market. Here, the most notable shift came from responses by those who lose a job now, and say that the prospects of finding new employment within three months dropped by almost 6 percentage points in August to the lowest reading since the New York Fed began asking the question in 2013. That’s also the sharpest downturn in one month since the pandemic. Specifically, the perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8 ppt to 44.9 percent, the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013.

The darkening outlook for job seekers was broad-based across age, education and income groups, the New York Fed said. Yet it was most pronounced for those with a high school diploma as their highest level of education.

A bit less dramatic, but tied to that, is that the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months ticked up by 0.1% point to 14.5%. The reading is above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.0%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 0.1% point to 18.9%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 19.0%.

Additionally, mean unemployment expectations, or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now, increased by 1.7 ppt to 39.1% which however is well below the recent April highs of 44.1%. 

The results followed a dismal employment report last Friday showing firms added just 22,000 net new positions in August. Revisions also revealed that companies shed workers in June. The unemployment moved up to 4.3%, and cemented the odds of a 25bps rate cut in two weeks.

Fed officials say concerns are shifting from the inflation risks posed by tariffs to weakness in the job market. Many businesses have delayed price increases after stocking up on inventory at the beginning of the year.

And sure enough, the latest NY Fed survey confirms that while fears of runaway inflation expectations are now long gone (except perhaps a dozen or so blue haired Karens which UMich polls relentless month after month), the labor market continues to deteriorate at an accelerating pace, and absent a jumbo rate cut soon, the deterioration will be sufficient to trigger a recession. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 12:20

Putin Doesn't Seem Worried As EU's 19th Sanctions Package Would Hit Russian Banks, Oil

The United States, Europe and Ukraine are still pinning their hopes on witnessing a Russian economic "collapse" that theoretically will hasten a desperate Putin to the negotiating table, where he'll make significant compromise.

That's according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a Meet the Press interview Sunday. He said: "We are prepared to increase pressure on Russia, but we need our partners in Europe to follow."

Urging Europe to act more aggressively, he said, "We are talking about what the two, the EU and the U.S., do together. But we need our European partners to follow us."

At this moment the European Union is considering a new round of sanctions targeting several Russian banks and energy firms - which would mark its 19th package. The newest round would take aim at Russia’s payment and credit card networks, cryptocurrency exchanges, as well as impose additional restrictions on its oil trade. In total it would target about half a dozen Russian banks and energy companies.

The action is expected to be coordinated, after EU representatives meet this week in Washington with Trump admin officials. Have nearly twenty rounds of sanctions really put the squeeze and hurt on Russia, enough to impact Putin's war aims? So far, the evidence has not been compelling.

With each new round of sanctions going back to 2022, it remains the same mantra from people like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who previewed starting early last month, "We have adopted 18 packages so far, and we are advancing preparation for the 19th. This package will be forthcoming in early September."

She reasoned, "We need to prepare the 19th package so that Russia sees that we are serious. We must continue to limit Russia’s potential." The EU's position is that the sanctions pressure will eventually "President Putin to the negotiation table."

The state of the battlefield in eastern Ukraine strongly suggests that the Kremlin could care less if Europe and the US are 'serious' - as Russian forces have kept slowly advancing piecemeal, and even last month penetrated into the central oblast of Dnipropetrovsk. This also comes off Putin's time in Beijing, which sent a message to the world doubling down on trade commitments in defiance of Washington, also involving India.

As far as another round of major sanctions, it's looking like President Trump will probably pull the trigger, given events like Sunday's record-breaking drone and missile attack on Kiev and across Ukraine will only ramp up the pressure on him to act, amid the urgings of hawks. He might be more interested in salvaging bilateral US-Russia ties, however. Certainly the Russians have had a favorable approach to this.

Germany's Deutsche Welle reviews:

• Russia attacks with 805 drones and 13 missiles, most of which were intercepted, according to Ukraine's Air Force
• Strikes hit residential areas in Kyiv, killing at least two people, and set fire to one of the main government buildings
• Ukraine's president and prime minister continue to urge global allies to ramp up pressure on Russia by strengthening sanctions against country

That Soviet Union won the war against the nazis and that China also emerged as a victor is “something new” for Kaja Kallas. https://t.co/haklg9LP4C

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) September 5, 2025

That attack marked the first time that high level 'decision-making centers' of the government were attacked, as the cabinet of ministers building was set a blaze, which is not far from Zelensky's office.

There remains no forward movement on getting Putin and Zelensky into top level negotiations, as Trump has sought, and Zelensky even said he won't go the the capital of "that terrorist" Putin. Such rhetoric will ensure that a meeting doesn't happen, and Zelensky and Europe seem content with this - even as untold numbers continue dying by the day on the eastern battlefield.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 11:40

Trial Of Trump Assassination Attempt Suspect Begins: What To Know

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Ryan Routh, the man accused of trying to assassinate President Donald Trump last year at his South Florida golf course, is set to go on trial in federal court on Sept. 8.

In September 2024, Routh, 59, allegedly entered the grounds of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, armed with a semiautomatic rifle. Prosecutors allege that Routh pointed the rifle barrel at a U.S. Secret Service agent while targeting Trump, who was then the Republican presidential candidate.

Routh has pleaded not guilty to multiple charges, including attempting to assassinate a major presidential candidate, assaulting a federal officer, and multiple firearm violations.

Here’s what to know about the trial of the suspect in the second Trump assassination attempt, set to begin on Sept. 8.

Routh Will Represent Himself

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, the same judge who presided over and tossed out Trump’s classified documents case last year, is also handling Routh’s case in Fort Pierce, Florida.

Cannon approved Routh’s request to represent himself at trial during a hearing in July.

Routh requested to represent himself at trial in a June 29 letter to Cannon, claiming that he and his lawyers are “a million miles apart” and that they refused to answer his questions.

He also floated the idea of being used in a prisoner exchange with Iran, China, North Korea, or Russia.

“I could die being of some use and save all this court mess, but no one acts; perhaps you have the power to trade me away,” Routh wrote.

The suspect’s defense counsel, including attorney Kristy Militello, filed a motion on July 23 to terminate representation, saying her “attorney-client relationship” with Routh was “irreconcilably broken.”

Cannon told the defense attorneys that they must remain as standby counsel.

Routh Given Clear Instructions on Court Conduct

During a hearing on Sept. 2, Cannon told Routh that he cannot make any sudden movements while representing himself at trial. While he will be allowed to use a podium while questioning witnesses or speaking to the jury, he will not have free rein in the courtroom, Cannon said.

“If you make any sudden movements, marshals will take decisive and quick action to respond,” Cannon said.

The judge also said that Routh will be dressed in professional business attire for the duration of the trial.

Week one of the trial will begin with jury selection, which is expected to last three days, during which attorneys will question three sets of 60 prospective jurors. Twelve jurors and four alternates must be found before the trial begins. Opening statements will begin on Sept. 11, with prosecutors slated to start presenting their evidence afterward.

While the court has designated four weeks for the trial, attorneys expect it to end sooner.

Defense, Prosecution Plans for Trial

In a court filing ahead of a Sept. 2 hearing, Routh said he wanted to subpoena Trump himself, while suggesting a “beatdown session would be more fun and entertaining for everyone.” He also used a list of insults for Trump, calling the president a “baboon.”

Routh requested Cannon subpoena “every single person that had something negative to say about Ryan Routh” in another filing on the same day.

“Please put them on the stand under oath and lets see who lies, themor [sic] the FBI,” Routh wrote.

In response, Cannon denied Routh’s new witness requests after approving four previously, and said nothing the defendant has written suggests a “subpoena to President Trump would be relevant or necessary to prepare an adequate defense.” Routh also tried to subpoena a former lover, alleging her romantic experience with him “evidences his purported peacefulness, gentleness, and nonviolence.”

Cannon referred to the request as a “farce to bring about obviously ludicrous and absurd results in a court proceeding.”

The judge on Sept. 2 also unsealed the prosecution’s 33-page list of exhibits, which may be introduced as evidence during Routh’s trial. The list says that prosecutors possess photos of Routh holding the same model of semiautomatic rifle that was found at Trump’s golf club in September 2024, when the assassination attempt occurred.

The list also contains electronic messages sent from a cellphone that law enforcement found in Routh’s car on the day of the attempt. In one that was dated two months prior to his arrest, Routh allegedly requests a “missile launcher.” The document also accuses Routh of sending a message in August 2024 seeking “help ensuring that [Trump] does not get elected.”

In that message, Routh allegedly offered to pay an unnamed person to track the location of Trump’s airplane with flight tracking apps.

The exhibit list also references a message about an electronic “chat about sniper concealment” during the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, and internet searches for how long gunpowder sticks to clothing and for responses by the U.S. Secret Service to assassination plots.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 11:20

Is It Simply "Too Late" To Fix?

By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank senior strategist

US bond yields dumped on Friday as the August US payrolls report confirmed a weakening labor market. Yields on US 10s finished the session 8.5bps lower at 4.08%, and 10-year sovereign yields in Australia and New Zealand are taking the lead this morning, currently down 5 and 4.5bps respectively.

OIS futures are now pricing a Fed rate cut in September as a virtual fait accompli, with at least one subsequent cut (almost two) priced in for the remainder of 2025 (and 10% odds of a 50bps rate cut). Nevertheless, US stocks closed Friday lower with the duration exposed NASDAQ performing best and the ‘earnings-today’ Dow Jones faring worst to end the session 0.48% lower.

Gold prices are rising again in early trade this morning after pumping more than 4% last week to reset all-time-highs. The prospect of lower real rates is doubtless a driver, as the US front-end comes under pressure following the soft payrolls report and the market looks ahead to CPI figures later this week that could confirm the stagflation scenario that Jerome Powell said he couldn’t see as recently as last year.

The Ukraine war and the weaponization of the dollar was the straw that broke the camel's back pic.twitter.com/QL6COvzeXK

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 7, 2025

5y5y inflation swaps in the US have been rising since Liberation Day back in April, while 2-year treasury yields have been falling since the middle of May. Politicization of the Fed is undoubtedly a factor in the unusual price action. Short-end nominal yields dropped substantially after Adriana Kugler announced on August 1st that she was stepping down as a Fed Governor, and dropped again after Trump’s August 21st announcement that he was firing Lisa Cook. In both instances, long-end real yields remained comparatively well supported, creating an alligator-jaw effect on the graph.

Trump further upped the ante in his campaign to assert control over monetary policy late last week. Following the release of the poor payrolls data (which followed poor reads on the ADP report, the JOLTS report and the weekly jobless claims report) he ‘Truthed’ that Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have cut rates a long ago and also nominated a shortlist of Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and Christopher Waller as potential successors to Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Naturally, all three have shown an inclination to cut the Fed Funds rate.

Events in other markets are also perhaps conducive to ideas of structurally higher borrowing costs at the long end of the curve. Firstly, Japan’s PM Ishiba has just announced that he will be stepping down. Ishiba is a fiscal hawk and while there is no clarity yet over a successor, it is likely that whoever takes over would be less inclined toward budget restraint and less supportive of tighter monetary policy from the BOJ. Sanae Takaichi, who finished second to Ishiba in a previous LDP leadership runoff, favours a more stimulatory fiscal stance and could be in the mix to become the new Premier.

In a similar fashion, France’s PM Bayrou faces a confidence vote later today where he is likely to lose his job. Bayrou has proposed EUR 44bn of austerity measures over the next 12 months in a bid to repair France’s parlous public finances, but faces staunch opposition on both the left and right to his plans. If Bayrou loses the vote (which seems likely), President Macron could either appoint a new Prime Minister, dissolve the national assembly and call fresh elections, or step down himself. The latter is highly unlikely, and the second course risks an even less palatable composition of parliament. We believe that the most likely course is that Macron will appoint a new Prime Minister and plans for fiscal retrenchment will be necessarily curtailed by the unfriendly operating environment. Our full analysis is available here.

And finally, the UK lost its deputy PM (who also happened to be the housing minister) late last week when news emerged that Angela Rayner had underpaid taxes on the purchase of a seaside flat, contravening the ministerial code of conduct in the process. PM Starmer has announced a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle but was at pains to stress that beleaguered Chancellor Rachel Reeves would be remaining in her current position in a bid to calm the already jittery gilts market.

30-year gilt yields reached their highest levels since 1998 last week as markets lost confidence in the trajectory of the UK fiscal position. Rising yields and projected productivity downgrades have more than wiped out the ‘fiscal headroom’ that Reeves left for herself at her last budget and now puts her in the position of having to find tens of billions of pounds worth of savings measures that are almost certain to be opposed by her own backbench.

Failure to pass savings measures will likely push gilt yields even higher, highlighting the economic doom loop that the UK now finds itself in as the Guardian reports senior Labour Party figures helpfully advising Keir Starmer to “stop making mistakes.” Keep in mind that the UK (and France!) also needs to find some money to re-arm on the off chance that they might have to fight the Russians.

So, while front end yields are sinking today on hopes of easier money from central banks, the story at the long end is a little more complicated. Fixing bloated fiscal positions without clobbering the economy and simultaneously finding ways to finance spending priorities has become a policy paradox. Is it simply ‘too late’ to fix? Or can out of the box economic thinking still find a solution?

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 11:00

Americans Sour On Capitalism As Democrats Go All-In On Socialism: Survey

A new Gallup survey reveals that Americans' positive perception of capitalism has slipped to 54%, the lowest level since the poll began in 2010 and down from 60% in 2021. Meanwhile, views of socialism remain steady at around 39%, though partisan divides are widening, with two-thirds of Democrats viewing socialism favorably.

This comes as the next generation of Democratic politicians grows more radical than ever, calling for a socialist reconstruction of America, with some of these unhinged politicians openly embracing Marxism.

Democrats and independents have grown increasingly skeptical of capitalism. For the first time, fewer than half of Democrats (42%) view the economic system that has allowed America to become a superpower as favorable. Republicans' views remain unchanged, with three-quarters holding a favorable opinion.

Not surprisingly, two-thirds of Democrats view socialism favorably, up from 50% in 2010.

This reflects an alarming shift within the party as it embraces far-left progressive policies, with an increasing number of Democratic leaders openly leaning toward Marxism. Republicans, by contrast, remain broadly skeptical of socialism, mindful of the lessons from the fall of the Berlin Wall decades ago.

Democrats socialism = communism pic.twitter.com/4hXrr5GZpj

— Maverick17 (@okvino17) September 8, 2025

One thing voters agree on: positive views of mega corporations continue to slide over a multi-decade period to a record low. 

Sixty percent of Republicans, 36% of independents, and 17% of Democrats view mega corporations positively. 

"Americans overall continue to be skeptical of socialism, but Democrats are the exception," Gallup wrote in the report, adding, "Since 2016, more Democrats have held positive views of socialism than of capitalism, with the gap expanding to 24 points today." 

Gallup noted, "Democrats' more positive views of socialism occur at a time when many high-profile Democratic officials — most notably, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as well as New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani — have identified themselves as Democratic socialists and advocated policies calling for a significantly expanded government role in economic matters." 

The takeaway from the new survey confirms our reporting: Democrats have gone off the deep end. Rather than returning to the center of the political aisle, they've chosen to double and even triple down on all things woke and now openly embrace socialism. Some in the party are even cheerleading Marxism while calling for the collapse of capitalism and America.

US Patriotism Among Democrats Crashes As Marxist Demands Grow Louder https://t.co/rCOU2SKplG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 4, 2025

This type of revolutionary behavior by Democrats is not tolerated by President Trump, who campaigned against socialism in 2024, often declaring that "America will never be a socialist country." 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 10:40

"A Clear Defeat": Argentina Bonds, Peso Plunge After Milei Routed In Buenos Aires Polls

Argentina’s President Javier Milei suffered a heavy defeat in Buenos Aires province, where the Peronist Fuerza Patria coalition won 47% of the vote against his Libertad Avanza’s 34%, according to FT.

Pre-election forecasts had predicted a closer contest, which Milei had hoped would boost momentum for the October 26 midterms.

“Buenos Aires province is traditionally very Peronist, but this margin is even worse than expected,” said Alberto Ades of NWI Management. He warned markets would react with weaker bonds, equities, and higher country risk.

FT writes that the setback comes amid Milei’s struggles in Congress, where his veto was recently overturned, and a corruption scandal involving leaked recordings and alleged kickbacks linked to his sister Karina. His approval has dropped below 40%.

“Without any doubt, today we suffered a clear defeat,” Milei conceded. “But the economic course for which we were elected will not change. We will continue to defend fiscal balance tooth and nail.”

Analyst Ana Iparraguirre said, “This result was primarily a negative message to Milei’s government,” warning financial turbulence could deepen voter discontent.

Markets are already stressed: short-term dollar bonds have fallen 15% since July, equities 34%, and debt spreads widened nearly 2 points to 9%. To defend the peso, Milei has raised rates, tightened reserves, and sold dollars, but economists fear recession.

“The resounding defeat of President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza in the Province of Buenos Aires election will likely confirm the worst of market fears and unleash an adverse feedback loop of negative price action, unpleasant policy moves, and more downbeat expectations heading into October’s national mid-terms," Bloomberg economist Jimena Zuniga said.

“The government engineered a sharp recession with high rates to defend the peso, but Buenos Aires voters are saying jobs matter more than squeezing out the last bit of inflation,” said Walter Stoeppelwerth of Grit Capital.

Despite this blow, polls still predict Milei’s coalition will gain seats in Congress, though it holds less than 15% in either chamber. The result, however, bolsters Peronist governor Axel Kicillof, a rising figure in the opposition.

The peso plunged 7% to 1,450 per US dollar, near the upper limit of its trading band, at the start of local trading.

Dollar notes due 2035, among the most traded, slid 5.56 cents to 56.09, pushing yields to 12.6% and leading losses across emerging markets.

“This was Peronism’s bastion. The national election will be different,” said Fernando Marengo of Blacktoro. “The focus has to shift to building agreements — the reforms that could be done by decree are done.”

Argentina’s sovereign bonds tumbled after the defeat in Buenos Aires, according to Bloomberg.

Investors had braced for a selloff if Milei lost by more than five points; instead, the 14-point margin magnified concerns ahead of October’s midterms.

Morgan Stanley swiftly closed its week-old buy call on Argentine assets, warning that Sunday’s outcome increases the risk of a “downside scenario in which the market questions the likelihood of continued reforms, and uncertainty rises around the future external financing sources,” according to economist Fernando Sedano and strategist Simon Waever.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: CPI, Payrolls Revisions, France Vote Of Confidence, ECB

Usually the post-payrolls week is quieter but not this time, as we get another bumper week of events as we build to next week's FOMC. Although the Fed is now on its media blackout, Wednesday's PPI and especially Thursday's CPI will shape pricing ahead of that (note that the traditional order of CPI before PPI is flipped this week), with all eyes still focused on the tariff impact. 28bps of cuts are now priced in for the next meeting, so a quarter-point cut is fully priced but without much being priced in for a 50bps move (that will change after tomorrow's negative benchmark revision). DB economists believe you’d need to see pretty weak inflation this week to get that. We preview that US inflation data below but before we do the main highlights for the rest of the week are: the French confidence vote in the National Assembly, German industrial production and the New York Fed’s inflation expectations today; the preliminary annual benchmark revisions by the US BLS for payrolls tomorrow; Chinese inflation, the State of the Union address by European Commission President von der Leyen, and a 10yr UST auction on Wednesday; the ECB decision and a 30yr UST auction on Thursday; and finally on Friday there’s the  University of Michigan survey. 

We’ll go through a few of these events now and review Friday’s payrolls and its impact below. But let’s first take a look at what’s expected in Thursday’s US CPI. In their preview. DB's US economists expect monthly headline CPI to rise to +0.36% in August, which would be the strongest monthly print since January. That’s partly because of their forecast for a +1.7% increase in seasonally adjusted gas prices, along with some positive payback in food-at-home prices. At the same time, they think core CPI will be a little weaker at +0.32%, although that would still be in line with the six-month high we had last month. If that’s correct, then that would lift the year-on-year headline number by two-tenths to +2.9%, with core edging up a little but still rounding to +3.1%, the same as last month. Of course, the focus will very much be on the continued impact of the tariffs in core goods categories, and we know these are still filtering through, given several rates like the 50% on copper only came into force last month.

In terms of the implications for the Fed, the jobs report on Friday has seen the tide turn to increasing concern about tepid employment growth rather than permanently above-target inflation. That report showed nonfarm payrolls up just +22k (down from +79k in July and clearly beneath the +75k print expected). Moreover, there were another -21k of downward revisions to the previous two months, which was well below the huge -258k revisions in the previous report, but still the 6th time in the last 7 months that the revisions had been negative. So that meant the unemployment rate moved up a tenth to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. And the broader U6 measure (which includes underemployed and marginally attached workers) moved up to 8.1%, again the highest since October 2021. As it stands, the latest revisions mean that June this year has a -13k print, which is the first negative month since December 2020. It also marks an end to the second-longest streak of consecutive positive payroll prints in data back to 1939. The one caveat they discuss around the weak data is that the slide in payrolls does look similar to that seen between June and August last year even if there is evidence of labor market weakness in the numbers.

Overall, they don’t view the report as soft enough to push the FOMC towards a larger-than-usual 50bp cut next week, partly because the median dot in June was in line with two cuts and an unemployment rate at 4.5% by year-end. So nothing out of the ordinary yet relative to this. However, as we warned two weeks ago, keep an eye out for the preliminary BLS annual benchmark revisions tomorrow for another rewrite of history. These only impact the period to March so it won’t have anything about the most recent five months. But there are likely to be downward revisions of as much as 50-60k per month over the year according to our economists, based on the survey linked to the revisions calculations. Bessent nodded to this sort of number yesterday in a press interview.

Elsewhere, we see what is likely to be a low-key ECB decision on Thursday. DB economists expect them to keep the deposit rate on hold at 2% and think the ECB has reached its terminal rate in this cycle.

More importantly in Europe is today's confidence vote in France. Proceedings start at 3pm local time with the vote results likely to be known after 5pm CET. That’s likely to see a defeat for Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government, but most interesting is what happens next. President Macron is expected to nominate a new PM that could achieve a majority to pass the budget. This would probably require the backing of the center-left Socialists as the right-wing populist National Rally has called for snap parliamentary elections to be held. There are also general strikes called in France for September 10 and September 18, and Politico reported over the weekend that Macron is aiming to have Bayrou’s replacement lined up before the second one of these. At the start of last week, France’s fiscal situation was a real pressing issue for markets, along with the UK gilt market selloff, but the US bond rally has taken some of the sting out of this. Nevertheless, both countries remain in a precarious situation if global rates turn again.

Speaking of politics, Japan’s PM Ishiba announced over the weekend that he will step down, after several weeks of speculation after the poor summer election results. The leadership race will now take place and likely take 2-3 weeks, although the new LDP leader will need some support from opposition parties to become PM given LDP-Komeito have lost their majority. A key issue at stake is the direction of monetary policy, and the two front runners seem to be Koizumi and Takaichi with the former more likely to coincide with higher Japanese rates. That’s contributed to a weaker Japanese yen overnight, which has fallen by -0.48% against the US Dollar to 148.15 per dollar. Meanwhile, yields are fairly stable, and the Nikkei (+1.33%) is closing back on its record high this morning after there were decent upward revisions to Japan’s growth data. It showed the economy growing at an annualised +2.2% rate in Q2, having initially pointed to a +1.0% rate. So that means the economy has expanded for 5 consecutive quarters now, the longest run since 2016-18.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 8

• Data: US August NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, July consumer credit, China August trade balance, Japan August Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, July BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany July industrial production, trade balance
• Central banks : ECB's Villeroy speaks
• Other: France confidence vote, Norway parliamentary election

Tuesday September 9

• Data: US August NFIB small business optimism, Japan August M2, M3, machine tool orders, France July industrial production
• Central banks: ECB's Nagel and Villeroy speak, BoE's Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Oracle, Synopsis
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday September 10

• Data: US August PPI, July wholesale trade sales, China August CPI, PPI, Italy July industrial production, Sweden July GDP indicator, Denmark and Norway August CPI
• Earnings: Inditex
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)
• Other: State of the Union address by the European Commission President von der Leyen

Thursday September 11

• Data: US August CPI, federal budget balance, Q2 household change in net worth, initial jobless claims, UK August RICS house price balance, Japan August PPI, Germany July current account balance
• Central banks: ECB decision
• Earnings: Adobe, Kroger
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds (reopening, $22bn)

Friday September 12

• Data: US September University of Michigan survey, UK July monthly GDP, Japan July capacity utilisation, Italy Q2 unemployment rate, Canada July building permits, Q2 capacity utilisation rate
• Central banks: ECB's Rehn, Kocher and Nagel speak, BoE's inflation attitudes survey

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Thursday and the University of Michigan report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Monday, September 8 

• 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, August (last 3.1%) 

Tuesday, September 9 

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, August (consensus 100.5, last 100.3)
• 10:00 AM BLS releases preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revision: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to the level of nonfarm payrolls for March 2025. The final benchmark revision will be issued and incorporated into nonfarm payrolls alongside the January 2026 employment report in February 2026. Based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)—the key source data for the annual benchmark revision—a large downward revision seems likely; we estimate on the order of 550-950k (or a 45-80k downward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2024-March 2025). However, we believe next week’s estimate could revise payroll growth down by as much as 400k too much.

Wednesday, September 10 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, August (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); PPI ex-food and energy, August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, August (GS +0.3%, consensus NA, last +0.6%)

Thursday, September 11 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), August (GS +0.37%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (MoM), August (GS +0.36%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); CPI (YoY), August (GS +2.90%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.70%); Core CPI (YoY), August (GS +3.13%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.06%): We estimate a 0.36% increase in August core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 3.1% on a rounded basis. Our forecast reflects increases in used car prices (+1.2%) reflecting an increase in auction prices, new car prices (+0.2%) reflecting a decline in dealer incentives, and the car insurance category (+0.4%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We forecast an increase in airfares in August (+3%), reflecting a boost from seasonal distortions and an increase in underlying airfares based on our equity analysts’ tracking of online price data. We have penciled in upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as communication, household furnishings, and recreation) worth +0.14pp on core inflation. We expect the shelter components to be roughly unchanged on net (primary rent +0.25%; OER +0.26%). We estimate a 0.37% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food prices (+0.35%) and energy (+0.6%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.29% increase in core PCE in August. We will update our core PCE forecast after the CPI is released.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 6 (GS 230k, consensus 234k, last 237k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 30 (consensus 1,950k, last 1,940k)

Friday, September 12 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September preliminary (GS 57.4, consensus 58.0, last 58.2)
• University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, September preliminary (GS 3.4%, consensus 3.5%, last 3.5%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/08/2025 - 09:50