Zero Hedge

Kim Jong Un Calls for 'Limitless' Nuclear Build-Up In Response To 'Asia NATO'

Kim Jong Un Calls for 'Limitless' Nuclear Build-Up In Response To 'Asia NATO'

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered a fiery speech where he stressed the importance of accelerating the country’s nuclear weapons program in response to Western threats.  

In the address to the North Korean Army issued days ago, Kim said, "The United States has already converted its alliance with the [South Korea] into a nuclear-based one and created an 'Asian NATO' in haste by cementing its military ties with Japan and South Korea."

The North Korean leader stressed that US nuclear deployments to the region, joint war games with South Korea and Japan, and building military blocs aimed at Pyongyang are all intolerable to North Korea. 

Kim stressed the increasing threat from Washington justified accelerating Pyongyang’s nuclear program. "Long ago, the line of building up our nuclear forces became an irreversible policy, so what remains to be done now is for these forces to get more fully ready for action so that they can carry out the mission of deterring war and the second mission at any moment."

He continued, "We will build up our nation’s self-defense forces, the pivot of which is its nuclear capability, limitlessly and endlessly without satisfaction."

In addition to discussing North Korea’s military tensions with the US, Kim also discussed Pyongyang’s position in what he has previously described as a "new Cold War."

"As the US and other Western countries are using Ukraine as a shock force in the war against Russia, we should view it as a maneuver to enrich their real-war experience and expand the scope of military intervention all over the world."

He added, "By sustaining their military assistance to Ukraine and Israel…This aggravates the international security situation, stoking fears of a third world war."

The relationship between Washington and Pyongyang has soured during the Joe Biden administration. At the end of Donald Trump’s first term, North Korea and the US were engaged in some diplomacy, and Pyongyang was largely respecting its self-imposed missile test moratorium. 

However, Biden refused to engage with Kim while increasing the presence of the American military in South Korea. Combined with the administration’s efforts to bring South Korea and Japan into a military pact, Pyongyang views the Biden policy as highly aggressive. 

Kim responded by ramping up the missile tests, conducting war games near the DMZ, and strengthening Pyongyang’s ties with Moscow. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:40

Netanyahu Says Israel Offering $1.3 Million Reward For Each Hostage Freed

Netanyahu Says Israel Offering $1.3 Million Reward For Each Hostage Freed

On Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a rare surprise visit to the Gaza Strip, specifically to the area of the Netzarim Corridor, which runs through the center of the strip.

He was there to deliver a message, showing that Hamas does not and will not rule Gaza. He also issued a warning to those terrorists that are holding Israelis hostage, vowing that they'll pay a heavy price.

He proclaimed that Israel Defense Forces troops in Gaza have "achieved excellent results toward our important goal — that Hamas will not rule in Gaza. We are destroying its military capabilities in a very impressive manner, and we are moving on to its ruling capabilities… Hamas will not be in Gaza."

TOI/GPO: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip on Tuesday.

Israeli authorities have in recent months said that over 60 living hostages remain somewhere in Gaza, of the about 100 who were never returned.

Of these, Netanyahu said "we are not letting up" and that Israel "will continue to do so until we reach everyone — both the living and the dead." He also at one point addressed "those who are holding our hostages," saying that "whoever dares to harm our hostages — will bear the responsibility. We will pursue you and we will get you."

He offered a reward of NIS 5 million (or just over $1.3 million) to anyone in Gaza who turns an Israeli captive over the Israel. It's not the first time a monetary reward has been offered, but the money has been greatly increased with this announcement.

"I gave an order to increase the reward for those who bring information about the hostage - NIS 5 million for each hostage instead of NIS 1 million and safe passage for the informant and his family," Netanyahu said.

The Jerusalem Post writes that "In his public comments, he stressed that Israel is willing to do small deals, by which captors would be given monetary rewards and free passage out of Gaza in exchange for releasing the hostages in their custody."

The hope is that which such a large sum, families of Hamas members tasked with hosting and guarding hostages might come forward and free the hostages. Or else, individual Palestinians who might know where hostages are being kept might step forward with the information. It could also entice Hamas members to turn on their leadership.

Defense Minister Israel Katz, IDF chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, accompanied him during the brief tour of the central Gaza area.

"The choice is in your hands, but the result will be the same. We will bring everyone home," Netanyahu said. During a Monday debate in the Knesset, he addressed the outrage by victims' families over his handling of the hostage crisis. 

"Demonstrations by hostage families and civilian protesters inside and outside the Knesset during the debate underscored the turbulence surrounding the several dozen Israelis believed to still be alive in Gaza," one report observed. "Multiple individuals were escorted out of the meeting due to outbursts and disruption."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:20

SpaceX Launches Starship Into Orbit, Lands Successfully But Scraps Plan For "Chopsticks" Booster Catch

SpaceX Launches Starship Into Orbit, Lands Successfully But Scraps Plan For "Chopsticks" Booster Catch

Update: Disappointing those who had hoped to see the "chopsticks" catch in action for the second time in a month, the Super Heavy booster instead splashed down in the ocean after it was deemed unsafe to attempt the remarkable midair catch today.

To all those who bought the "No" contract on Polymarket for the chopsticks catch, congratulations on your 4x return.

Otherwise, everything was successful, and SpaceX’s gargantuan Starship rocket blasted off from South Texas in a key test attended by President-elect Donald Trump.

SpaceX’s launch system, comprised of its Super Heavy booster and Starship upper spacecraft, cleared the tower shortly after 4 p.m. local time on Tuesday, the start of a roughly hour-long planned mission to space and partially around the world. After Super Heavy landed in the Gulf of Mexico, Starship continued its voyage through space. At one point, it successfully reignited one of its Raptor engines — the first time SpaceX was able to do so during these flight tests. Starship will need to reignite its engines in order to control its descent to Earth and maneuver through space.

Starship then circled most of the globe before plunging through the atmosphere about 45 minutes into the mission, its body engulfed in the reddish orange glow of plasma as its upgraded heat shield endured intense temperatures while hurtling back to Earth.

Starship survived the reentry, moving its exterior flaps to help guide its descent, though some showed signs of burn and slight damage. Then, as Starship fell through clouds, it flipped itself and reignited its engines to turn upright and softly splash into the Indian Ocean shortly after 6 p.m. New York time in what Elon Musk said was a "successful ocean landing."

 

* * *

Earlier

The sixth flight test of SpaceX's Starship megarocket is targeted to launch during a 30-minute window that opens at 5 PM EST (2100 GMT; 4 PM local Texas time). 

The next Starship test flight aims to push the envelope of Starship and booster capabilities and prepare the entire launch system for reuse. 

"Objectives include the booster once again returning to the launch site for catch, reigniting a ship Raptor engine while in space, and testing a suite of heatshield experiments and maneuvering changes for ship reentry and descent over the Indian Ocean," SpaceX's website wrote. 

Elon Musk outlined Starship Flight 6's objectives on X:

Musk pointed out, "Current Starship is more than twice as powerful as the Saturn V Moon rocket. Starship V3, which hopefully flies in about a year, will be 3X more powerful."

Even before the two-stage megarocket — featuring the Starship spacecraft stacked atop the Super Heavy booster — launches late afternoon, prediction market platform Polymarket has allowed users to wager on whether the Mechazilla arms (or chopsticks) at the Starbase launchpad near Brownsville, Texas, will successfully catch the Starship as it returns to Earth.

Last month's Starship Flight 5 marked a historic success.

The Polymarket bet is titled "Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?" With about seven hours left before launch, users overwhelmingly bet confidently (about 80%) that chopsticks will successfully catch Starship. About $286k have traded on the contract so far. 

Polymarket has made betting on binary events in the news cycle possible. 

Watch the sixth Starship flight test:

Meanwhile, Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX, told investors last Friday that the company plans hundreds of Starship rocket launches during President Trump's second term.

There is a report from Politico that President-elect Trump plans to watch the Starship launch with Musk in Texas.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:10

Guess What's Coming To DC?

Guess What's Coming To DC?

Authored by El Gato Malo via The Brownstone Institute,

DC is about to experience something entirely new, something absolutely unprecedented in its experience. They think the barbarians are coming. And perhaps they are. But not the kinds of barbarians they suspect. Not this time.

The simple fact is that there exists a very small group of incredibly high-function, insanely productive people. It’s the dirty secret of the world. This tiny tribe conceives, invents, and builds basically everything novel. All of it. They are not normal people. They are the 0.1%.

Unless you have worked with them, around them, or been a part of what they do, you simply lack a reference for what they are like. It’s essentially inconceivable how much such people can get done when they set their minds to it, how many rules they will disprove, break, or ignore, and how many paradigms they will upend.

DC has never seen a mob of high-function autist builders and fin warriors coalesce before. They have no fricking idea what’s coming. They cannot possibly know. But I do.

I know A LOT of these people. This is what most of my friends are like. They learn for a living. They pull systems apart, see them as functional wholes, and work 16-hour days reading arcane 1,000-page descriptions until they understand. Then they pull the underwear of whoever thought they understood this material up over their heads in an atomic wedgie and take over a space. 

It’s just what you do if you’re a person like that. It’s compulsion. It’s like breathing. These are 3 and 4 and 5 standard deviation people who have focus and talent in quantities they do not even have maps of in Washington. I keep hearing about people I know a little getting tapped for transition teams and I’m like “Ooooooh, that guy can read 100 CDS prospectuses in a weekend and remember it all,” or “Yeah, that guy thinks in algorithms and sleeps once a month. He could code when he was 6.”

“Only an insider can tackle the swamp” is dead wrong. It takes someone radically different to make a radical difference. And I am giddy realizing that they are coming. It does not matter that they do not know the terrain yet. They will. They have 3 months to learn. That’s more than enough.

Watch. Moving into novel systems or spaces and becoming better at it than the people currently there is what these people do. It’s ALL they do. It’s who and what they are.

It does not matter if it’s the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the DMV, or NASA. Same game, same result. every time.

The “insiders” are so screwed. DC has no one like this. They have never even met people like this because people like this avoid government like it is a bag of plague rats. Because it is.

But now they are interested and looking to play exterminator because the state strayed too far into our world and so now we are coming for theirs.

And wait until you see what the world’s best builders can tear down. It’s going to be glorious.

These are the same people who in 10 weeks using just sparse public data and Twitter pulled the pants down on the whole edifice of public health and revealed them as fakes, phonies, and charlatans. Then they rewrote the discipline. It will never be the same. Most of us had never even looked at epidemiology before. In a few months the “amateurs” eclipsed the experts and left them for dead.

We did this as outsiders and without any maps and with the very opposite of help.

Imagine what this gang can do with the keys to the kingdom.

It’s going to be nothing but baffled astonishment from the Beltway boffins.

“How in hell have they read and understood everything!?! They are not experts here!” will decry the people who need to pass bills to find out what’s in them. “How the hell are they producing so much output, so much impact? How did they know just where to push?”

They have never seen what 10 of these guys and three pots of coffee can achieve. I have. Mountains get relocated.

The really truly high-functioning have not come to meet the regulatasaurus before. They were busy and had better things to do.

Not anymore. “Dismantle Leviathan” is now a step in everyone’s business plan. Better, it’s public service as it was supposed to be: not a vocation, not a career. Instead, it is a task, a dirty task that needs doing so you go and do it and then you go home once it’s done.

You fricking clowns just cornered Elon and made this election and administration an existential issue for him and his empire. And an awful lot of us feel the same way. You cornered all of us. Go along to get along ended because you guys crossed the line. Welcome to reflexivity.

The pushback is going to be something for the ages.

DC is going to feel like it’s being invaded by an entire bestiary of mythical monsters with magical powers who can see through walls and huck immovable objects over the horizon. They will come from every side at once. They will replace thousands of federal employees right from the start. 

You’ll be fighting against the outside and the inside. They’re going to transfer and move those permanent staters they cannot fire. Have fun in Topeka or Guam. They’re lovely this time of year.

They are not going to play nice or play fair. They are going to get things done. And they are going to clown you while doing it, clown you like “name their agency after a crypto shitcoin that muskrat ran “to the moon” just because they think it’s funny.”

And it will be.

This is a new kind of team, a team that comes from an ethos of “Move fast and break things” and “Ask forgiveness, not permission.” They are not the GOP procedure drones of yesteryear, These are people who just walk in and do stuff and fuck your process. They have made careers of it.

The Dems have long ago figured out the “Just go do it and let the chips fall where they may” model (basically since Obamacare) but they do it stupidly and on topics where the results will be bad. 

This will be like Uber. By the time the regulators woke up and tried to move against it, people loved it too much to let them take it away. There were protests in front of every DMV in Commiefornia.

And so the world progressed. And instead of doing it donkey-style to contravene the Constitution, team effective autists will be doing it to uphold it. Look on my plans ye mighty and wet your pants. This is teed up in a whole new way on a whole new field.

They will have the swamp in knots. DC power is entrenched because it is secret and controls access and channels and promotion and most especially access to media and publicity. That game is over.

Vivek is a seriously effective guy with finance and biotech and founder chops. He speaks well and makes things. And like him or loathe him, Elon is a change (and a chaos) agent. He takes crazy, audacious swings and builds stuff. He’s a rogue and a pirate. It’s why he’s good at what he does. He asks simple questions like “What did you accomplish this week?” that you cannot hide from. But his real superpower is this: there is no human on earth today who can bring the circus like Elon can bring the circus. No one.

The man is a one-man always traveling 11-ring Barnum and Bailey show. And what an astonishing show this is going to be.

Name and shame are incredibly powerful. This will be an unending media event, a drip feed of “Can you believe they spent millions making and studying transgender monkeys?” (this was a real grant BTW) 

It will be relentless, revelatory, and invite the whole of the public to the party. There will be no escape, no off switch, no media gatekeeping: this is direct-to-consumer messaging. And hey, let’s get the Epstein list out in the open while we’re at it. Imagine how much DC cycle time THAT would eat, time in which you can get even more stuff done.

Sunlight is a powerful disinfectant. 

Let’s look at everything with new eyes. Let’s disrupt.

Get the establishment on tilt from day one and never stop pushing. Not from any side, not for a moment. Shut things down. Gut agencies like trout. Invite them to “cry some more” if they don’t like it.

Flood the box so hard that the news cycle cannot even cover it. This technocracy is not used to having to defend ground from this sort of attack. They are used to being the ones making the rules. They will not have any idea what to do.

There are these magical times in human history when the truly smart and talented and effective come together and change everything. American independence. The Manhattan Project. Xerox PARC. Apollo. Silicon Valley in the 80’s and 90’s.

Some vast project captures the imagination and worlds are moved.

I think it’s a bit early to just come out and say “This is that” but I’m here to tell you that the cabinet secretaries and the appointments to run agencies are only a part of the show and maybe not the important part.

The thousands coming with them are NOT more drones from interchangeable bureaucrat collective 2177.

These are the finance and pharma and tech bros. Not the fake ones who wear fleece vests and work in biz dev. The meat eaters. Wave upon wave upon wave of them in their hyper-motivated myriads.

And this is a new-new thing.

In the end, it’s just a gross mismatch for you, DC.

You’re smart enough to be a Washington wonk and run rings around drunk Congresscritters as they insider trade. Neat. What’s coming is smart enough to find edge trading against the Goldman arb desk and produce drugs and catch rockets.

We live where you need results, not a sinecure. And we are well and truly pissed. You people are not even bringing a knife to a gunfight. You’re bringing a dinosaur to a meteor strike.

Say goodbye to the Potomac Country Club. Things are about to change. And pardon me if I am over-effusive and over-optimistic, but if this is even 20% of what it looks like, hot damn this is gonna be fun.

Republished from the author’s Substack 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 17:00

The Cure For What Ails Us: Market Crash And Mass Defaults

The Cure For What Ails Us: Market Crash And Mass Defaults

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The system has reached extremes that can no longer be rebalanced by policy tweaks, borrowing another couple trillion dollars or inflating asset bubbles.

There are many possible answers to the question "what ails us?" but they all boil down to one reality: the socio-political-economic system has slowly transmogrified into one that benefits the few at the expense of the many by its very structure. There are many moving parts in this transmogrification, hence the multiplicity of answers to "what ails us?"

The net result is extreme asymmetry in wealth and income, a reality I've often explored, most recently in The Seeds of Social Revolution: Extreme Wealth Inequality. As documented in the data-rich history The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century, extreme asymmetries of wealth / income get rebalanced one way or the other, either by policy changes or social upheaval.

Correspondent John recently proposed a third rebalancing mechanism: a crash of The Everything Bubble markets and a mass default by the bottom 90% that erases a major chunk of debt, which as often noted here, is somebody else's asset: default on the debt and the asset is wiped out.

Here are John's comments on this third rebalancing mechanism:

The wealth divide has been my (very) hot button issue for years, overriding all others. I agree with your two options, but you left out door #3.

As for policy change, I think that is fanciful thinking. The top 10% (who think everything is wonderful) will never vote for substantial change, as they'll never vote for anything other than feel-good minor change ...with loopholes, of course.

I think Door #3 will be taken ... which the Deep State will have to allow as they see civil unrest coming ever clearer on the horizon if not. What is Door #3? A Crash of assets, which will flatten the divide. In a credit-based economy, it will be easy to let it all fall. Assets fall everywhere ... including debt (an asset for top 10%) as the bottom 90% just walk away (as there are no debtor prisons). A crash of assets requires no vote ... just The Powers That Be standing back. (Of course, half measures will be taken to show the top 10% we're DOING SOMETHING ... but in reality this only stretches out the collapse).

Thank you, John, for an insightful description of a third option that rebalances extreme wealth inequality by reducing the assets of the top 10% and the liabilities of the bottom 90%. As John noted, this process is easy in a debt-based economy: just reduce the expansion of debt and the asset bubble pops, the economy craters and debtors default en masse, reducing the liabilities side of the ledger.

As John so presciently described, The Powers That Be will oversee this reduction while wringing their hands and promoting their ineffective efforts to stem the collapse as "we're giving it all we got, Captain!"

The asset bubble and debt load are so enormous, tens of trillions of dollars will need to be shaved off both ledgers to rebalance the system. All bubbles pop under their own weight at some point, and bubbles often deflate in a symmetrical fashion, dropping at the same rate as the bubble inflated. This chart of NASDAQ illustrates how bubble symmetry might play out going forward.

Since the top 1% own 50% of all stocks, guess who this drop will hurt the most? The top 90% to 99% own close to 40% of the remaining equities, so the top 10% will absorb roughly 90% of the losses as the stock market bubble pops.

Here is total systemic debt. The federal government debt isn't going away, short of a complete systemic collapse, and the legal pathway of local governments defaulting on their debts is murky, but there are no obstructions to private-sector defaults of all lender-generated debt: commercial real estate mortgages, housing mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, etc. As for student loans, the old phrase you can't get blood from a turnip may describe the futility of trying to collect blood (student loan payments) from turnips (debtors without assets or income.)

We can play the game Japan has played for 35 years, keeping non-performing loans on the books at full (i.e. phantom) value, but look where that artifice got Japan: 35 years of stagnation as everyone knows the "assets" are phantom and so the value can't be discovered by the market. Since accurate valuation is impossible, trust dissipates and the system rots away from within.

As a thought experiment, let's project writing off $50 trillion of debt based on phantom collateral that's evaporated. That is of course a writedown of assets by $50 trillion, too, which would reduce household assets to around $100 trillion--still substantial, just no longer a bubble.

The system has reached extremes that can no longer be rebalanced by policy tweaks, borrowing another couple trillion dollars or inflating asset bubbles. What ails us can be rectified by adjusting (ahem) assets (collateral) and debt to rebalance the extremes that are destabilizing the system from within.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 16:20

Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As Markets Mull Moscow, Mullahs, Musk, & Macro

Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As Markets Mull Moscow, Mullahs, Musk, & Macro

Geopolitics, macroeconomics, and domestic politics all combined for a wile ride in stocks today...

Geopolitics was a major headwind overnight as Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in the event of a massive conventional attack on its soil. But, then that reversed as headlines suggested Iran is looking to de-escalate (IRAN AGREES TO STOP PRODUCING NEAR BOMB-GRADE URANIUM: IAEA).

All of that prompted a roller-coaster in stocks with Nasdaq ending the best (and Small Caps recovering dramatically from overnight weakness). The Dow desperately tried to get green but failed (even with help from WMT)...

Then Musk sparked some chaos in media stocks as he tweeted: "No advertising for pharma"...

Source: Bloomberg

Shorts were squeezed today from the cash open...

Source: Bloomberg

Mega-Cap Tech rallied significantly on the day, bouncing off pre-election levels ahead of tomorrow's NVDA earnings...

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was higher on the day with tomorrow's risk event priced in (though less than typical for an NVDA earnings day)...

Source: Bloomberg

US Macro data disappointed - housing starts and permits were ugly - which helped pull bond yields lower (along with chatter about potential 'safe' picks for Treasury Secretary)...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin continued its charge higher, topping $94,000 - a new record high in USD terms...

Source: Bloomberg

...and coming within a few points of an all-time record high against gold...

Source: Bloomberg

...even as gold started to rally back from its post-election doldrums too...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices dipped on the Iran headlines but overall it appears geopolitical uncertainty is adding some premium back into the energy complex...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, US equities are currently pricing a very optimistic growth environment...

Source: Goldman Sachs

Goldman's sector model leads them to recommend overweight positions in Materials, Software & Services, and Utilities. From an investment strategy perspective, they invoke the dictum of Donald Trump to “protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 16:00

No Apology Can "Undo The Damage" Gary Gensler Has Caused...

No Apology Can "Undo The Damage" Gary Gensler Has Caused...

Authored by Ciran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

Gemini exchange co-founder Tyler Winklevoss has asserted that the harm inflicted on the cryptocurrency industry by Gary Gensler, Chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is irreparable. This statement comes amid growing speculation that Gensler might step down from his position.

“Let’s all be clear on one thing. Gary Gensler is evil,” Winklevoss declared in a Nov. 15 X post.

“He should never again have a position of influence, power, or consequence,” Winklevoss added.

Winklevoss’ remarks follow growing optimism among crypto market participants that Gensler, a well-known crypto skeptic, may resign after Trump’s win in the US presidential election on Nov. 5.

Gensler’s behavior cannot be excused as “good faith,” Winkelvoss claims

Winklevoss claimed that Gensler’s behavior cannot be excused as “good faith mistakes” before arguing that it was “entirely thought out, intentional, and purposeful to fulfill his personal, political agenda at any cost.”

Source: Tyler Winklevoss

During Gensler’s time as SEC chair, crypto firms like major exchanges Binance and Coinbase, Ripple, among others, have faced ongoing legal battles from the regulator. Winklevoss argued that Gensler took the regulation-by-enforcement approach to the crypto industry, showing little regard for anyone working in the sector:

“Even if this meant nuking an industry, tens of thousands of jobs, people’s livelihoods, billions of invested capital, and more, ironically, his sociopathic ambition ended up torching his own political party.”

Echoing a similar sentiment to Winklevoss, Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin recently told Cointelegraph:

“We’ve been living in a gas-lit world for a long time, generously gas-lit by the SEC.”

Backlash toward Gensler continues to grow

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor believes whoever takes Gensler’s job has the “most pivotal role” in the crypto industry.

“I think this is incredibly bullish for digital assets,” Saylor added.

Reuters reported on Nov. 7, citing people with knowledge of the matter, that Robinhood’s legal chief, Dan Gallagher, is currently the Trump team’s frontrunner to replace Gensler.

Meanwhile, on Nov. 14, eighteen US states filed a lawsuit against the SEC and Gensler, accusing the financial regulator of “gross government overreach” against the nascent crypto industry.

The plaintiffs include Nebraska, Tennessee, Wyoming, Kentucky, West Virginia, Iowa, Texas, Mississippi, Ohio, Montana and others.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 15:40

Netanyahu Signals Rejection Of Lebanon Truce: 'Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah'

Netanyahu Signals Rejection Of Lebanon Truce: 'Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah'

Late Monday Lebanese sources had said that Hezbollah has agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire plan. But by the close of the day it became clear that Israel has yet to formally sign off. "Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting," Reuters reported.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initial reaction was to say that Israeli will still operate militarily against Hezbollah in response to attacks, even in the scenario a ceasefire deal is reached. This seems to reflect a belief that Hezbollah won't uphold its end of a potential ceasefire even if formally enacted.

"The most important thing is not (the deal that) will be laid on paper," Netanyahu told the Knesset. "We will be forced to ensure our security in the north (of Israel) and to systematically carry out operations against Hezbollah’s attacks… even after a ceasefire."

TOI/Israel Police image: Emergency responders at scene of a deadly Hezbollah rocket impact in Shfar’am, northern Israel on Monday.

"Even if there is a paper [setting out an agreement], worthy though it may be, we will be required, in order to ensure our security in the north (of Israel), to systematically carry out operations — not only against Hezbollah’s attacks, which could come."

He continued, "Even if there is a ceasefire, nobody can guarantee it will hold. So it’s not only our reaction, a preventive reaction, a reaction in the wake of attack, but also the capacity to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening." Netanyahu concluded by emphasizing, "We will not allow Hezbollah to return to the state it was in on October 6, 2023."

US special envoy Amos Hochstein is in Lebanon on Tuesday, where he's described "very productive" meetings with top Lebanese officials. He says that a deal to end the fighting is "within our grasp". Hochstein is expected to be in Israel by Wednesday.

Lebanese officials are now saying the ball is in Israel's court. Currently an Israeli ground offensive is still active, and Beirut has been heavily pummeled by Israel's aerial offensive, which has also reached into central and northeastern Lebanon of late, especially the Bekaa Valley.

But the skepticism expressed by Netanyahu is rooted in the long-running demand that Hezbollah withdraw its forces to regions north of the Litani River, in order to establish an indefinite buffer zone. Israel also wants its military to be able to patrol southern Lebanon after that point to ensure no continued missile or drone attacks on northern Israel.

Hezbollah has considered this demand an impossibility, and thus this week's international reports suggesting a deal has been reached are premature. But Netanyahu has signaled he's willing to contemplate a deal ahead of Trump entering the White House.

This is especially as the last 48 hours have seen hundreds of rockets rain down on Israeli cities, some reaching into Tel Aviv shopping districts, as Israel keeps up its devastating airstrikes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 15:20

Great News Consumers: Olive Oil Bear Market Worsens As Harvests Improve 

Great News Consumers: Olive Oil Bear Market Worsens As Harvests Improve 

Spain's Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil producer, stated that the multi-year drought-driven crisis, which caused prices of "liquid gold" to surge, is ending as a favorable 2024-25 harvest gets underway in Spain. This suggests that olive oil prices at supermarkets are expected to decline in the months ahead. 

Miguel Ángel Guzmán, chief sales officer at Deoleo, told CNBC, "We are still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially in the higher quality oils, such as extra virgin.

"However, the outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases," Guzmán said. 

He added, "Although there have been steps towards improvement, it would not be entirely accurate to say that the crisis is over." 

Spot prices for Spanish Olive Oil Extra Virgin peaked at 8,835 euros a ton in late January and have since tumbled into a bear market (-43.5%), sliding to around 5,145 euros by late fall. This is mainly because estimates point to improved harvests in the top-producing countries of Spain, Greece, and Tunisia. 

Bloomberg's Javier Blas pointed out, "Retail olive oil prices will follow down very soon (they have already in origin countries like Spain / Italy)." 

Here's our coverage on the olive oil crisis:

Great news, consumers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 14:40

Experienced Disrupters Wanted!

Experienced Disrupters Wanted!

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Now that the election is in the rearview mirror, the focus now turns to what the next four years are going to look like in a second Trump term. From all indications, things will not be business as usual.

Trump Turns The Tables

After being inaugurated as president in 2009, Barack Obama met with congressional Republicans to discuss his economic plans. There was a lot of complaining and pushback from the Republicans, but Obama made it clear he was going to push through his programs whether they liked it or not.

In a smarmy tone, Obama told the Republican leaders, “Elections have consequences” and added, “I won” for good measure. Obama did not have many major accomplishments, but he did push through Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act) and signed many executive orders to force changes in immigration law and to implement other preferences.

The phrase, “elections have consequences” was continually trotted out to make the point that winners can do what they want.

Now, events have come full circle.

Donald Trump not only won the White House in a landslide Electoral College vote and a majority of the popular vote, but his party took control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Now it’s the Republicans who are turning the tables on Obama’s famous quote.

A Defensive Change

Take Trump’s choice for Secretary of Defense, for instance. Trump appointed Pete Hegseth, Major in the U.S. Army, combat veteran with service in Iraq and Afghanistan, winner of two Bronze Stars, and graduate of Princeton and Harvard. He is well-qualified, but not a conventional choice in the sense that he does not emerge from the swamp of the military-industrial complex. He’s a fierce opponent of “woke” policies that are weakening our military and hurting enlistments. He’s determined to force the retirement or resignation of a large cadre of generals and admirals who are more interested in political correctness than they are in combat readiness.

The Trump transition team is also creating a “Warrior Board” that will systematically review senior officers (so-called “Flag Officers” consisting of generals and admirals) to identify those who are overly political, woke, or supported former Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff Mark Milley. Many will be forced out, which is not only good for morale but also creates space in the highest ranks for promotions of deserving Majors and Colonels.

More Disrupters

Or take two of his more “controversial” picks (if you listen to the hyperventilating of the mainstream media).

Tulsi Gabbard has been nominated to be the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She is a former member of Congress and a Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army with deployments to Iraq. She received both a Meritorious Service Medal and a Combat Medical Badge. Gabbard is assigned to the Army Reserve’s Psychological Operations Command, which is perhaps the best possible background for an intelligence chief. But yet, many are screaming “no experience”!

Matt Gaetz has been nominated to be the next Attorney General of the United States. He has a first-class legal mind and excellent cross-examination skills, which will be needed in the course of prosecuting bureaucrats who committed illegal acts during the Biden-Harris years. Again, Washington and the media are panicking at the thought of Gaetz heading the DOJ.

Historian Victor Davis Hanson sums up the Trump appointments battle best:

“Many of Trump’s first-round picks share some common themes. One, many, who were in the past victimized by government bullies and cowardly bureaucratic grandees, or proved sharp critics of the administrative state, are now, in karma-style, in charge of the very agencies that hounded him. So, Elon Musk, a perennial target of government regulatory functionaries, was once policed, but now he polices the bureaucratic police. Robert Kennedy, Jr., proposed overseer of government health programs, was often blasted as a crank by the subsidized scientists and the administrators within HHS whom he will now direct. Pete Hegseth fought the military DEI machinery while a soldier in the ranks and wrote a book about the corruption of the Pentagon. He will now, if confirmed, run the Pentagon. Tulsi Gabbard was improperly put on a national security travel watch list as a supposed security threat — and now will be a guardian of our security as Director of National Intelligence. Tom Homan was derided by the Biden administration and its Homeland Security minions as a fanatic border hawk; now he will run ICE and deal with the detritus of Biden fanaticism on the border. Two, none of these appointments are traditional swamp creatures. Few rotate from the think tanks. This time around there are no retired “Wise Men” or retired four-stars. Few are Uniparty magnificoes revolving back into high government from their DC university or New York corporate and investment waystations. None are DEI, cover-our-identity-politics-base candidates. By design, their past government service resumes are thin — few past undersecretaries of these or special assistants to those. And there are not a lot of suffixed alphabetic letters or prefixed long-winded titles that adorn their names. In other words, they are vaxed from the sort of acculturated administrative state mindset that has alienated and terrified the citizenry.”

Terrified, indeed.

Trump’s selections are what is needed to clean up the stink of Washington. Trump was the new kid in town in 2016 and failed to penetrate the Swamp. This time will be different and it will be like a breath of fresh air in the Beltway.

Give Obama credit where it’s due. Elections definitely have consequences.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 14:20

Jaguar Attempts To 'Bud Light' Itself With Cringeworthy Woke Ad

Jaguar Attempts To 'Bud Light' Itself With Cringeworthy Woke Ad

British sports car manufacturer Jaguar, one of the most celebrated motorsport brands, first gained prominence in the 1950s with its iconic C-Type and D-Type sports cars, securing seven victories at the prestigious 24 Hours of Le Mans. Jag launched the iconic E-Type at the 1961 Geneva Motor Show and has since produced stylish vehicles for the general public and racing teams. 

Given Jaguar's legacy of racing excellence, their marketing team has just nuked the brand in a manner reminiscent of Bud Light's controversial ad featuring Dylan Mulvaney, a man who identifies as a woman.

Jag's new ad, published on X on Tuesday morning, is titled "Copy nothing." 

Yet it looks like their marketing team copied a scene from the movie Zoolander. 

The X post was heavily ratio'd, and many people were utterly baffled by how tone-deaf Jaguar's marketing team has become in an era increasingly shifting away from toxic woke ideology.

"Umm where are the cars in this ad? Is this for fashion?" X user Pixel Prett asked. 

Jag's social media team responded: "Think of this as a declaration of intent."

Someone else asked Jag: "To go bankrupt? Got it."

The internet says...

Not one vehicle was shown in the ad. Yet wokeism culture was pushed into overdrive.  

Bring back the 1990s, please. 

We all have the same question. Maybe Jag is trying to boost its DEI score for year-end purposes... 

Jag's inability to read the room as the wokeism tide in corporate America goes out is troubling for the brand...

Earlier this year, Subha Barry, former head of diversity at Merrill Lynch, told Bloomberg, "We are past the peak" of wokeism. 

To sum up, this isn't the first time Jag has had tranny issues. 

Good luck. 

... 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 14:00

"Bitcoin Can Change The World Because The World Cannot Change Bitcoin"

"Bitcoin Can Change The World Because The World Cannot Change Bitcoin"

Authored by Mark Mason via BitcoinMagazine.com,

We often babble on about Bitcoin being an inflation hedge - as if it's some sort of financial umbrella protecting us from the monetary drizzle. But let's cut the crumpets; the real magic lies in its finite supply.

In his recent episode of The Money Matters Podcast, streamed live on 11 November 2024, Mallers didn't just hit the nail on the head; he used a sledgehammer. "Bitcoin is a solution, it is not a hedge," he proclaimed, with the kind of conviction you'd expect from someone who's just discovered tea and biscuits.

He pointed out the glaringly obvious—yet often overlooked—fact that Bitcoin is the only asset where increased demand doesn't lead to increased supply.

If everyone suddenly wants an iPhone, Apple will churn them out faster than you can say "planned obsolescence." But if everyone wants Bitcoin? Well, tough biscuits. There's a fixed supply, and that's that.

Mallers eloquently stated, "Bitcoin is the most performant asset in the world because it's the scarcest asset in the world. It's the only asset that demands a higher price for more supply." It's like trying to get tickets to a sold-out Oasis concert; the more you want them, the more you have to cough up.

He also took a delightful jab at those who think Bitcoin is just another cog in the financial machine, correlated to stocks or precious metals. It's as if he's telling us that while the world fiddles with monetary policies like a cat with a ball of yarn, Bitcoin stands unflinchingly firm.

Now, I don't know about you, but the idea that Bitcoin is immune to the whims of central banks and governments makes me sleep better at night. Well, that and a good cup of Earl Grey. The finite nature of Bitcoin means it can't be diluted, devalued, or tampered with—unlike my neighbor's opinion on my lawn gnomes.

Mallers sums it up brilliantly: "Bitcoin can change the world because the world cannot change Bitcoin." It's the financial equivalent of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object—except, in this case, the object is a decentralized ledger, and the force is our collective realization that scarcity is valuable.

So, what's the takeaway here? If you're still treating Bitcoin like an optional side dish rather than the main course, it's time to rethink your financial menu. The scarcity of Bitcoin isn't a bug; it's a feature—a rather splendid one at that.

In the grand tapestry of assets, Bitcoin is that elusive thread of gold that doesn't tarnish, doesn't fray, and certainly doesn't multiply just because we fancy a bit more bling. It's high time we recognized Bitcoin not just as a hedge against inflation but as a standalone solution to the age-old problem of value preservation.

As for me, I've decided to value two things above all: my time and my Bitcoins. Everything else is just window dressing—or, as we say across the pond, mere fluff.

So here's to Jack Mallers for reminding us that sometimes, less truly is more. And if you haven't watched his latest video, do yourself a favor and give it a gander. Just be prepared—you might find yourself nodding along more vigorously than a bobblehead on a bumpy road.

Cheers!

Watch the video:

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 13:40

Pentagon Gets Rid Of DEI Evidence Before Trump Takes Office

Pentagon Gets Rid Of DEI Evidence Before Trump Takes Office

Authored by Dmytro “Henry” Aleksandrov via Headline USA,

It was recently reported that corrupt Pentagon officials are “scrambling” to wipe all evidence of DEI before President-elect Donald Trump steps back into the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Breitbart News wrote in its exclusive article that its sources stated that the Pentagon is in “absolute disarray” with “generals scrambling” because Trump plans to fire far-left senior military leaders who pushed DEI and other woke policies instead of taking care of combat readiness.

One source compared the organization’s situation to a hornet’s nest being kicked over, adding that “DEI pages are starting to disappear off the main websites.”

“They’re being archived as we speak. They are full-bore focused on cleaning up anything DEI-related,” the source stated.

Another anonymous person said that many Pentagon employees are afraid they will be fired, stating that “they are in panic mode.”

The recent news came after Trump gathered the names of senior officers who had pushed DEI. One Breitbart source familiar with the plan said that Trump’s team drafted an executive order to create a panel to recommend those senior officers for elimination and that the executive order is “definitely” going to Trump’s desk.

“This is for real. This [order] has made the cut,” the source said, noting that the executive order could be revised and consulted with incoming leaders at the Pentagon.

According to the sources, the order plans to “reorient the U.S. military away from the woke ideology and priorities that have been foisted upon it” since the Obama administration.

“Looks as if the Department of Defense has ordered an industrial shredder. WARNING: Shredding documents is a felony. We will not accept claims of ‘I was just doing my job.’ The hammer of Justice is coming,” the Department of Government Efficiency parody account stated.

Headline USA previously reported on Trump planning to fire far-left generals en masse.

The recent news came after Trump picked Army veteran Pete Hegseth as the head of the Department of Defense, which resulted in the Left seething over the pick.

“The Pentagon is legitimately scared of [Hegseth] because of his opposition to DEI — keep in mind, the Defense Department is spending around $86 BILLION on various DEI initiatives,” Kaylee McGhee White said. “Hegseth wants to root that out.”

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 13:00

USPS Incurs $9.5 Billion Loss Despite Raising Stamp Prices

USPS Incurs $9.5 Billion Loss Despite Raising Stamp Prices

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) incurred a significant increase in its losses this fiscal year, as revenues jumped but volumes dipped.

Net loss for 2024 fiscal totaled $9.5 billion, up from $6.5 billion last year, said a Nov. 14 statement from the agency reflecting its earnings. The $3 billion increase in losses occurred at the same time the agency had a slight revenue increase from $78.18 billion to $79.53 billion. The revenue uptick was not supported by an increase in mail volume, which fell from 116 billion units to 112 billion units.

A post office in Buena Park, Calif., on Jan. 15, 2021. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

According to the USPS Office of the Inspector General, the postal agency “relies almost entirely on the revenue generated from postage” to cover the costs of delivering mail.

The jump in net loss occurred despite an increase in postal rates by the agency. This increase, implemented in January and July, was done in accordance with the 2021 Delivering for America (DFA) plan that calls for such annual hikes.

The 10-year plan is reportedly aimed at boosting USPS’s financial situation.

The postal agency said that more than 80 percent of the loss incurred this year was due to factors “outside of management’s control,” such as adjustments related to employees’ non-cash compensation, according to the report.

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy said the organization’s pricing and product strategies “are continuing to improve our revenue picture and fuel market share gains in our package business.”

Nonprofit advocacy Keep US Posted criticized the USPS for its large losses, blaming it on the agency’s focus on the DFA plan. The $9.5 billion loss is more than $3 billion above projections, said the nonprofit’s executive director, former congressman Kevin Yoder.

He attributed the losses to mail volume declines that negated the increase in package volumes. Yoder blamed DeJoy for pursuing the DFA’s “disastrous postage increases and misbegotten focus on packages over traditional mail, which is still the largest revenue-generator for USPS.”

“The bottom line is that these consistent financial losses are driven by stamp hikes which lead to disastrous mail volume losses, plus the complete failure of USPS to capture parcel market share in already crowded package delivery space.”

USPS chief financial officer Joseph Corbett said the ongoing trend of falling mail volume and rising package volume reinforces the agency’s commitment to fully implementing the DFA plan.

Adhering to the plan has resulted in cutting down work hours for the third straight year, resulting in $2.3 billion in annual savings, he claimed.

USPS and Price Hikes

When USPS last raised the price of stamps in July, it justified the decision by saying the hike was financially necessary for the agency, as per the DFA plan.

“USPS prices remain among the most affordable in the world,” it said.

Earlier in May, the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC) said the postal agency’s July price increase was in line with regulations and that there was no legal reason to reject the hikes. PRC is an independent agency tasked with regulatory oversight of USPS.

A group of senators criticized USPS in a letter in April for the “unsustainable” price hikes. After the agency began raising postage rates, “we began to see the disastrous effects in 2023,” they wrote, pointing to a decline of 11 billion pieces of mail volume that year and the $6.5 billion loss.

“Instead of connecting the two issues, USPS blamed inflation, despite mail prices nearly doubling inflation in that time period.”

In September, Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Kan.) introduced the USPS SERVES US Act, which Keep US Posted says will allow the PRC to course-correct USPS decisions driving the agency into “financial ruin.”

The bill seeks to limit “negative effects” of the DFA plan, which has made mailing expensive for customers, it said.

“Since August 2021, there have been six unprecedented postage hikes—one every six months, well above inflation—that have hurt businesses, newspapers, nonprofit mailers, and individual Americans,” LaTurner noted.

“With each price hike, demand for mail, which is still the biggest revenue-generator for the USPS, declines, access to our postal network is threatened, and the USPS slips further into financial ruin.”

On Friday, the postal agency said it filed a notice with PRC for raising Shipping Services prices scheduled to take effect from Jan. 19. Prices for Mailing Services will remain unchanged due to which First-Class stamp prices will not be raised.

The Epoch Times reached out to USPS for comment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 11:20

VDH: Can Trump End Ukraine's 'Endless War'?

VDH: Can Trump End Ukraine's 'Endless War'?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Trump was elected in part on promises to avoid “endless wars” of the sort that cost American blood and treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq but without resulting in strategic advantage or civilized calm.

Yet as a Jacksonian, Trump also restored American deterrence through punitive strikes against ISIS and terrorist thugs like Baghdadi and Soleimani—without being bogged down in costly follow-ups. During the last four administrations, Putin stayed within his borders only during the Trump four years.

But upon entering office, Trump will likely still be faced with something far more challenging as he confronts what has become the greatest European killing field since World War II—the cauldron on the Ukrainian border that has likely already cost 1-1.5 million combined dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and civilians.

There is no end in sight after three years of escalating violence. But there are increasing worries that strategically logical and morally defensible—but geopolitically dangerous—Ukrainian strikes on the Russian interior will nonetheless escalate and lead to a wider war among the world’s nuclear powers.

Many on the right wish for Trump to immediately cut off all aid to Ukraine for what they feel is an unwinnable war, even if that abrupt cessation would end any leverage with which to force Putin to negotiate.

They claim the war was instigated by a globalist left, serving as a proxy conflict waged to ruin Russia at the cost of Ukrainian soldiers. They see it orchestrated by a now non-democratic Ukrainian government, lacking elections, a free press, or opposition parties, led by an ungracious and corrupt Zelensky cadre that has allied with the American left in an election year.

In contrast, many on the left see Putin’s invasion and the right’s weariness with the costs of the conflict as the long-awaited global proof of the Trump-Russian “collusion” unicorn. Thus, after the 2016 collusion hoax and 2020 laptop disinformation ruse, they see in some of the right’s opposition to the war at last proof of the Russophiliac Trump perfidy. They judge Putin, not China’s imperialist juggernaut, as the real enemy and discount the dangers of a new Russia-China-Iran-North Korean axis. And to see Ukraine utterly defeat Russia, recover all of the Donbass and Crimea, and destroy the Putin dictatorship, they are willing again to feed the war to the last Ukrainian while discounting escalating Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons to prevent defeat.

Trump has vowed to end the catastrophe on day one by doing what is now taboo: calling Vladimir Putin and making a deal that would do the now impossible: entice Russia back to its February 24, 2022, borders before it invaded and thus preserve a reduced but still autonomous and secure Ukraine.

How could Trump pull that unlikely deal off?

Ostensibly, he would follow the advice of a growing number of Western diplomats, generals, scholars, and pundits who have reluctantly outlined a general plan to stop the slaughter.

But how could Putin reassure the Russian people of anything short of an absolute annexation of Ukraine after the cost of one million Russian casualties?

Perhaps in the deal, Putin could brag that he institutionalized forever his 2014 annexations of once Russian-speaking majority Donbass and Crimea; that he prevented Ukraine from joining NATO on the doorstep of Mother Russia; and that he achieved a strategic coup in aligning Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea in a new grand alliance against the West and particularly the United States, with the acquiescence if not support of NATO member Turkey and an ever more sympathetic India.

And what would Ukraine and the West gain from such a Trump art of the deal?

Kyiv might boast that, as the bulwark of Europe, Ukraine heroically saved the country from Russian annexation as envisioned in the 2022 attempt to decapitate Kyiv and absorb the entire country. Ukraine subsequently was armed by the West and fought effectively enough to stymie the Russian juggernaut, wound and humiliate the Russian military, and sow dissension within the vastly weakened Russian dictatorship, as evidenced by the assassinated would-be insurgent Prigozhin.

Trump then might pull off the agreement if he could further establish a DMZ between the Russian and Ukrainian borders and ensure European Union economic aid for a fully armed Ukraine that might deter an endlessly restless Russian neighbor.

It would admittedly be a shaky and questionable deal, given Putin’s propensity to break his word and insidiously and endlessly seek to reestablish the borders of the old Soviet Union.

How then would Trump pull such a grand bargain off, given the hatred shown him by the American left for “selling out Zelensky,” the likely furor from the MAGA base of giving even one cent more than the current $200 billion to Ukraine, and its “endless war,” and the ankle biting from the Europeans who would be relieved by the end of hostilities on its borders but loathe to give any credit to Trump, whom they detest?

What would be the incentives for any such deal, and would they be contrary to both the interests of the American people and the new Republican populist-nationalist coalition?

Yet consider that if Trump were to cut all support for Ukraine, the right would see Ukraine become shortly absorbed—and it would be blamed for a humiliation comparable to the Kabul catastrophe, only worse, since Ukraine, unlike the Afghanistan mess, required only American arms, not our lives.

In contrast, if the endless war grinds on and on, at some point, the pro-war and so-called humanitarian left will be permanently stamped as the callous party of unending conflict and utterly indifferent to the consumption of Ukrainian youth, spent to further its endless vendetta against a Russian people who also are worn out by the war.

Both Russia and Ukraine are running out of soldiers, with escalating casualties that will haunt them for decades. Russia yearns to be free of sanctions and to sell oil and gas to Europe. The West, and the U.S. in particular, would like to triangulate Russia against China and vice versa, in Kissingerian style, and thus avoid any two-power nuclear standoff.

America wants to increase and stockpile its munitions with an emboldened China on the horizon. It is dangerously exhausted by defense cuts and massive aid to Ukraine and Israel while preferring allies like Israel that can win with a few billion rather than perhaps lose after receiving $200 billion. The Republican Party is now becoming the party of peace, and Trump, the Jacksonian, nonetheless the most reluctant president to spend American blood and treasure abroad in memory.

Europe is mentally worn out by the war and increasingly reneging on its once boastful unqualified support for Ukraine. So, it hopes the demonized Trump can both end the hated war and then be blamed for ending it without an unconditional Ukrainian victory.

In short, there are lots of parties who want, and lots of incentives for, an end to our 21st-century Verdun.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 10:25

DoJ Reportedly Pushing For Google To Divest Chrome To Dismantle Search Monopoly

DoJ Reportedly Pushing For Google To Divest Chrome To Dismantle Search Monopoly

The US Department of Justice is reportedly planning to ask a federal judge to force Google's parent company, Alphabet, to sell off its Chrome internet browser, potentially marking one of the biggest tech industry crackdowns in the US in decades.

On August 5, US District Judge Amit Mehta, Washington, DC, ruled that Google violated antitrust law by spending billions of dollars to create an illegal monopoly as the world's default search engine on smartphones, computers, and tablets. The ruling paved the way for antitrust enforcers to submit a 32-page document about potential remedies for the judge to consider. 

Now, Bloomberg reports, citing sources, that top DoJ antitrust officials plan to ask Juge Mehta to consider one of Google's top remedies: selling off its Chrome browser unit. 

Here's more from the report:

Antitrust officials, along with states that have joined the case, also plan to recommend Wednesday that federal judge Amit Mehta impose data licensing requirements, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing a confidential matter.

If Mehta accepts the proposals, they have the potential to reshape the online search market and the burgeoning AI industry.

...

The government has the option to decide whether a Chrome sale is necessary at a later date if some of the other aspects of the remedy create a more competitive market, the people added. 

Government attorneys met with dozens of companies over the past three months as they prepared the recommendation. States are still considering adding some proposals and some details could change, the people said.

Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google's vice president of regulatory affairs, said the DoJ "continues to push a radical agenda that goes far beyond the legal issues in this case."

"The government putting its thumb on the scale in these ways would harm consumers, developers and American technological leadership at precisely the moment it is most needed," Mulholland said. 

Selling off Chrome would severely impact Google's ad unit, considering the browser maintains about 61% of the US market share, according to web traffic analytics service StatCounter. Google's ad revenue in 2023 was $237.86 billion.

Judge Mehta has planned a two-week April hearing on the changes Google must make to remedy the illegal behavior. The final ruling could come as early as August 2025. Google does plan to file an appeal. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 10:05

The Vibe Shift And The Wealth Effect

The Vibe Shift And The Wealth Effect

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The second weekend following the election that rocked the world had football players in the end zone doing the now-famous Trump Dance. The UFC event that put together the fabulous five of the MAGA/MAHA/DOGE team culminated with the winning fighter giving his prize belt to Trump himself.

President-elect Donald Trump greets Jon Jones after he defeated Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden in New York early on Nov. 17, 2024. Evan Vucci/AP Photo

One might call it joy, with the victorious avengers leading the way.

Soon after the team was photographed on Trump Force One eating McDonald’s hamburgers, reprising the iconic moment when the candidate trolled his opponent by actually working as a fry cook and serving customers. This was just before Trump himself put on the vest of a sanitation worker and drove a truck.

You know all these stories because there has been a sudden and remarkable shift in American politics. The pronouns are disappearing from bios, major influencers are hiding, pollsters are resigning, and a different ethos is obvious in every town center in America, even in blue states. It’s as if a curtain has been lifted or a big weight has been pulled off the chest of the body politic.

I observe this without intended partisanship; indeed my blue-voting friends all confirm the same, and confess to some relief that maybe times are changing to better ones, with a more coherent understanding of who we are as a people and our task as a nation.

Maybe.

Behind this new exuberance, however, is a grim economic reality. There is no sense in which the economy is healthy. No matter what data you examine, you see some very dark clouds. The debt addiction by government, Wall Street, institutions, and households is palpable and, once you examine the numbers, truly scary.

Adjusting retail sales for inflation, for example, yields no real increase at all in years. In fact, once adjusted for inflation, there has been a net decline in retail sales.

Business inventories reflect the same. They are not really increasing, despite all reports. What you hear on the news is merely higher prices, which is not the same thing as economic growth.

Industrial production is extremely weak, reflecting continued loss of manufacturing energy and entrepreneurial weakness.

There is a strong argument to make–and the incoming Trump administration needs to point this out immediately–that we are already in what used to be called a recession. More specifically, this is an inflationary recession, because inflation is not gone but, by some measures, actually accelerating. Fundamentals point to a likely resurgence starting as soon as the spring of 2025, just in time to challenge the Trump campaign’s promise to banish it forever.

Real income is down and falling. The U.S. dollar buys likely 40 percent less of goods and services than it bought just four years ago. That pertains to dollar-based structures of production but imports are a different story. They have risen far less in price, which you can discover by going to any retail outlet and buying a product that used to be produced in the United States which is now nearly entirely made abroad.

The manufacturing leakage out of the borders is not improving but getting worse, with growing manufacturing losses and trade deficits as far as the eye can see. With the dollar continuing to provide liquidity to the world, the flood of imports never stops while exports are dominated almost entirely by oil and gas.

Even in this sector, Europe is not unaware that it is far better off importing from Russia than the United States, which makes trade negotiations with Europe extremely difficult. Energy and debt assets are the only bargaining chips the United States has, and those are being eaten away in real time.

What does an incoming administration do with an economy mired in an unannounced inflationary recession, a weak production sector, and a debt overhang the likes of which the world has never seen? A good mood and Trump dances only get a nation so far.

The problem of U.S. wars abroad is another issue entirely, and the evidence of the moment suggests that the outgoing administration has no intention of receding to the background ahead of the changing of the guard.

What to do?

As I’ve argued constantly, there are dramatic steps that Trump can take to mitigate against these dark clouds but it will absolutely require dramatic changes in regulatory burdens, agency hegemony, and outright federal spending.

The Federal Reserve needs to be relieved of the burden of monetizing debt but that only happens if the Treasury stops issuing T-bills. That is going to require a massive U-turn on federal policy starting immediately.

The team called DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) has the right idea. The budget needs an immediate slashing, starting with the preposterous increases in government spending over the last year that have added hundreds of thousands of new government employees at all levels and zoomed the federal debt to levels never seen before, all in hopes of forestalling a Trump victory. It did not work and now those efforts need to be reversed.

But the troubles are far deeper. The bloat in government payrolls has been unchecked for generations, to the point that only a reported 5 percent of government employees actually go into the office. While I’m not privy to the average day of a government worker lucky enough to have such a gig, it is reasonable to assume that such talent could be far better deployed in private sector employment.

Ideas being floated around now involve immediate abolition of more than 100 agencies at least and buyout packages that would provide 1-2 years of severance for voluntary career moves. That seems like a viable and highly necessary plan. Along with that, the Trump administration is planning to invoke the Supreme Court decision of Loper Bright to say that decades of regulatory imposition is actually unconstitutional.

Beyond that, there is the possibility of extreme capital gains and income tax cuts, in addition to that which has been floated on the campaign trail: no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no tax on overtime. The notion that we could abolish the income tax completely and replace it with tariffs is not implausible given the current political moment, which compares to 1989-90 Eastern Europe.

Of course that kind of shift will require huge spending reductions on the level of that which we saw in Argentina last year. Javier Milei managed to reduce inflation from thousands of percent to 2.6 percent in a month, which is too high but vastly improved. The answer was reducing government spending and debt and thus reducing pressure on the central bank with its money-printing habits.

The United States could follow a similar path but the Trump administration must act extremely quickly.

Forgive a slight foray into economic theory. There are two paths that a shift in economic trajectories can take. The first is an “income effect.” That happens when people have either more or less money and adjust spending and resource allocation on that basis alone. This is all about accounting in real time: more resources, more spending; fewer resources, less spending.

But there is another possibility called the “wealth effect.” This occurs when assets obtain great value and people and businesses conduct their economic lives based on the expectation of great riches down the line. This requires massive confidence in the future, which involves a belief in greater freedom, more secure property rights, longer lives, and a better life generally speaking.

The wealth effect cannot be modeled. It cannot be fully anticipated. It cannot be mapped and calculated according to normal accounting standards. The wealth effect is a form of magic: it draws upon a genuine confidence that the future will be vastly better than the present. The wealth effect can mitigate every storm cloud. It can boost investment, increase innovation, reduce inflation, and even balance the budget.

The wealth effect is the great unknown. But it can be unleashed by a regime that truly trusts the people with freedom and has the courage and boldness to dismantle the machinery that is currently holding back the visions and aspirations of a people clamoring for genuine economic opportunity.

There are few times in history where we have seen this work: Britain in the 18th century, America in the late 19th century, Japan and Germany after the Second World War, Vietnam at the end of the Cold War, and so on. Firing up the wealth effect requires change in Washington, D.C., like none of us have seen in our lifetimes.

In other words, the vibe shift, as delightful as it is, is not enough. We need real evidence of change. Is the incoming Trump administration up to the task? If so, we are going to see far more dancing in the end zones.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 09:50

Walmart Beats, Lifts Outlook For 3rd Time As Increasingly More Wealthy Americans Trade Down To Big Box Retailer

Walmart Beats, Lifts Outlook For 3rd Time As Increasingly More Wealthy Americans Trade Down To Big Box Retailer

At a time when the US consumer is cracking under the weight of record credit card debt as personal savings slide to all time lows (at least until the Biden admin revises them higher just because) in a futile scramble to keep up with rising prices, Walmart can seemingly do no wrong and this morning the company unofficially ended Q3 earnings season when it not only reported earnings that beat across the board, but also raised its guidance for the third time in a row.

  • Adjusted EPS 58c, beating estimate 53c, but the lowest since Q3 2023
  • Revenue $169.59 billion, +5.5% y/y, beating estimates of $167.49 billion, and net of $1.2 billion negative FX impact
    • Total US comparable sales ex-gas +5.5%, beating estimates of +3.8%
    • Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +5.3%, beating estimates of +3.73%
    • Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +7%, beating estimates of +4.22%

  • Operating income %5.4 billion, up 9.1%, and "reflects gross margin expansion, improved eCommerce losses and higher Walmart+ membership income, partially offset by expense deleverage"
  • Gross profit 24.2%, down from 24.4%, and reflects "improved inventory management, continuing to manage pricing aligned to competitive price gaps and improved eCommerce margins"
  • Operating cash flow $22.9BN, up $3.9BN YoY "due an increase in cash provided by operating income and lapping the payment of accrued opioid legal charges in the prior period, partially offset by increased inventory purchases"
  • Free cash flow was $6.2BN, up 1.9%BN YoY "due to the increase in operating cash flow, partially offset by an increase of $2.0 billion in capital expenditures to support strategic investments"

In Q3, the company returned $2.7BN to shareholders: of this $1.7BN was dividends and $1.0 billion was stock repurchases representing 12.6 million shares, at an average price of $77.57 per share and leaving $13.5BN remaining under the share repurchase authorization.

The quarter in charts:

Remarkably, the gross profit rate at Walmart US rose 42bps. This was due to:

  • Strong inventory management and lower markdowns as well as managing pricing to maintain competitive price gaps to the retail market
  • Advertising and data analytics & insights businesses benefited business mix
  • Net delivery cost per order decreased ~40%, the third consecutive quarter of 40% improvement; benefited eCommerce margins
  • Offset by product mix headwinds as grocery and health & wellness sales outgrew gen merch

Also notable that WMT's inventory declined in the quarter, dropping 0.6%, thanks to "disciplined inventory management while sustaining strong in-stock levels."

While average transaction growth slowed, customers are buying more at each visit, driving ticket sizes. A lot of that growth was driven by upper-income households making $100,000 a year or more as increasingly more affluent households trade down. That cohort made up roughly 75% of share gains for the quarter.

Across the board, shoppers are being selective, but Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said they’re continuing to spend money at a consistent clip.

“In these seasonal moments when people want to celebrate, they are spending into that,” Rainey said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday. And yes, people now "celebrate" by shopping at Walmart.

Even more remarkable than the solid quarter, was the company's latest guidance boost. This is what WMT now sees for FY 2025:

  • Adjusted EPS $2.42 to $2.47, up from $2.35 to $2.43 on Aug 15, in line with the consensus estimate of $2.45, and up from $2.23 to $2.37 on Feb 2024
  • Net sales +4.8% to +5.1%, up from +3.75% to +4.75% on Aug 15, and up from 3.0% to 4.0% on Feb 2024.
  • Company sees year adj. operating income growing 8.5%-9.25%, up from 6.5% to 8.0% on Aug 15 and up from 4.0% to 6.0% on Feb 20

Rainey said Walmart’s higher full-year guidance primarily reflects strong third-quarter performance and that he expects a slight uptick in the ongoing quarter.

The company’s investments in e-commerce are also lifting sales. Walmart began selling pre-owned watches and collectible sneakers online in recent months, and added a new benefit for Walmart+ loyalty members: discounts on Burger King meals. Walmart’s online sales now represent about 18% of the company’s business.

Walmart is among the first big retailers to report earnings ahead of the all-important holiday period, which is shorter this year due to Thanksgiving falling later in November. The retailer moved up Thanksgiving deals by a few weeks, in hopes of luring consumers feeling pinched by high inflation and distracted by a turbulent election season.

So far, CFO Rainey said items like AirPods, televisions and tires are selling well.

In recent quarters, most retailers have pointed to a US consumer who remains cautious about macroeconomic uncertainties. Indeed, most shoppers have pulled back following years of inflation and high interest rates, especially walking away from appliances, clothes and other non-essential items. In fact, if it wasn't for rich consumers trading down to Walmart, the picture would have been far uglier.

One potential red flag for Walmart is the thread of sharply higher prices from China. Donald Trump has promised to impose a 60% tariff on goods imported from China and as much as 20% on items from other countries, which could lead to possible price hikes. That said, Walmart’s price changes were roughly flat for the quarter. Grocery prices are slightly higher than they were last year, though other consumer products are cheaper. Rainey said clothing sales have been softer partly because of warm weather.

The company’s shares are up nearly 60% year-to-date, far outpacing the S&P 500 Index. But investors’ bar is getting higher for Walmart, which has beat Wall Street forecasts for comparable sales all year.

WMT stock gained 3% in early trading, trading at a new all time high.

Here is the full Q3 investor presentation

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 09:33

Lavrov Warns "West Is Escalating Conflict" Just After Putin Signs Nuclear Doctrine Expanse Into Effect

Lavrov Warns "West Is Escalating Conflict" Just After Putin Signs Nuclear Doctrine Expanse Into Effect

Starting in late September, Russia had unveiled its expanded nuclear doctrine which proposed a lowered threshold for Russian strategic forces' use of nukes. This was due to the "emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies" - amid fiercer drone and missile attacks coming across the border from Ukraine. This change in nuclear doctrine has now been formally signed into effect by President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, two days after President Biden authorized Ukraine to begin conducting long-range strikes inside Russia with US-made missiles.

Ukraine has already taken advantage of that approval, also on Tuesday, using a MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System to strike a military installation in the western Bryansk region. "For the first time, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles," RBC Ukraine news agency reported Tuesday. 

RBC Ukraine said the military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region was successfully hit with ATACMS after six American-made missiles were fired (with Russia saying it intercepted five of them). This location was about 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has described that the nuclear doctrine changes mean that "the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus." 

Source: Sputnik 

"An important element of this document is that nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies,” Peskov said.

Thus this is the key change and lowering of the threshold - that even conventional weapons used by an enemy could trigger nuclear retaliation if deemed enough of a threat against Russia and its sovereignty.

The Associated Press also spells out, "The new doctrine allows for a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power."

Alarmingly, Peskov has already said that a Ukrainian attack like today's could potentially trigger it:

Asked Tuesday if a Ukrainian attack with longer-range U.S. missiles could potentially trigger a nuclear response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov answered affirmatively, pointing to the doctrine’s provision that holds the door open for it after a conventional strike that raises critical threats for the "sovereignty and territorial integrity: of Russia and its ally, Belarus."

Also according to the newly expanded doctrine, in the event Western powers assist another nation in a major attack on Russian soil, those same Western powers will also be held responsible. This can trigger Russian nuclear launch. This appears to be why Peskov answered in the affirmative.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has addressed the nuclear doctrine change from Brazil's Rio de Janeiro on the sidelines of the G20 Summit.

He asserted that Russia's position is that nuclear war won't happen, and that fundamentally Russian nuclear doctrine doesn't differ from the United States' - which sees nukes as a 'deterrent'. But still, he added, Russia will "react accordingly" to Ukraine firing a US long-range missile.

He expressed hope that the West will study the update in Russia's nuclear doctrine. "I hope that they [in the West] will read this doctrine. And not the way they read the UN Charter, seeing only what they need, but the doctrine in its entirety and interconnectedness," Lavrov said.

"The West appears to be working towards escalating the Ukraine conflict," he asserted. Meanwhile the US has indicated it won't respond to Russia's nuclear doctrine move. Let's hope saner heads prevail at the White House, at least until Trump enters the Oval, after which serious efforts toward peace talks might begin and have a much greater chance.

Meanwhile, Medvedev also weighs in, and characteristically doesn't hold back...

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 09:25

MAGA Takeover Or Adelson's Proxy Regime? Highlights From Blumenthal, Beattie At Last Night's ZH Debate

MAGA Takeover Or Adelson's Proxy Regime? Highlights From Blumenthal, Beattie At Last Night's ZH Debate MAGA or MIGA?

Will Trump and his new cadre of appointees succeed in ending the wars, closing the border, slashing bureaucracy, and ridding our food/medicine of poison? Or will he get rolled by the Deep State again?

Revolver News founder Darren Beattie and Grayzone Editor-in-chief Max Blumenthal dove deep into Trump’s cabinet in last night’s debate, hosted by friend of ZeroHedge Adam Taggart (who was kind enough to fill in for Judge Napolitano due to a last minute issue — please subscribe to Taggart’s YouTube channel to thank him).

Here were the highlights:

Battle of the Billionaires: Miriam Adelson & Elon Musk

Zionist mega-donor Miriam Adelson has called for full annexation of the West Bank in Palestine, a move that would surely stir the already-boiling Middle East. Could Space X founder Elon Musk act as a counterbalance? Beattie thinks so.

Beattie: “Elon Musk is not an interventionist by any means… Elon Musk matters a thousand times more than Miriam Adelson or any other, you know, person who's donated this time around.”

“The one billionaire that matters most — other than Donald Trump — is Elon Musk.”

Giving credit to Musk for reportedly engaging in peace talk with Iran last week, Blumenthal nonetheless pointed out that even the world’s richest man has bent the knee to “the lobby” in the past.

Blumenthal: “[Ben Shapiro] took Elon Musk to Auschwitz after Elon Musk took on the ADL and realized there was actually a force more powerful than the so-called richest man in America.”

“[Musk] had to bow to the power of the Israel lobby and the Zionist movement, and that should really tell us something about the danger that is faced in this Trump administration.”

Little Marco

Iran, China, Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela… these are just a few countries where Marco Rubio would like to see the governments toppled, as Blumenthal noted.

Blumenthal: “[Rubio is] going to escalate with this Monroeist foreign policy that John Bolton also articulated with coups, color revolutions, all kinds of sabotage and sanctions, and it will create more migrant pressure.”

“Many of the weapons companies that are also fueling the Taiwan lobby in Washington have supported Marco Rubio.”

Lending a ‘White Pill”, Beattie offered analysis of Rubio that could indicate his hawkish inclinations have tempered (or at least that he will respect the Trump agenda more so than first-term hardliners).

Beattie: “We shouldn't have this ossified picture of things from 2015… you have people who are pathologically committed and ideological, whereas I don't think that Rubio is of that sort.”

“He is not the sort — I think — like a Pompeo or like a Bolton who would be a driving force in opposition stated Trump preferences of bringing peace and resolution to the variety of global conflicts.”

“If Trump could avoid war with Pompeo, he can certainly avoid war with Rubio.”

Gabbard: “She’s an enigmatic figure”

Former Hawaiian Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has repeated the standard pro-Israel mantras over the years, but — as Blumenthal conceded — her foreign policy ran contrary to much of the Jewish state’s agenda, like regime change in Syria which she opposed. Is Gabbard playing politics?

Blumenthal: “[Tulsi] has actually gone against the grain of the most malevolent force in the United States, which is really admirable… Tulsi Gabbard is someone who has the potential to really reform the intelligence services.”

“The reason she's hated so much is because… she targeted the real source of the war machine, which was sending over a billion dollars in weapons and aid to fanatical jihadist proxies of al-Qaeda, which were tearing Syria to shreds.”

On Gabbard, Blumenthal and Beattie saw eye-to-eye.

Beattie: “She knows about the malicious activities of these groups like the [Syrian] White Helmets and people like Victoria Nuland and all of these scam organizations whose sole purpose is to dupe the United States into conflicts that it shouldn't be in.

Pistol Pete

According to Blumenthal, Hegseth is both a jarhead and religiously fanatical zionist… not a great combo. 

Blumenthal: “[Hegseth] fought — not to make peace and prevent new Wars from happening — but he fought knowing that his sons Gunner, Boon, and Rex would have to fight a war to defend Israel and that Israel's interests and the interests of the US are fundamentally intertwined and form the bedrock of western civilization.”

“Fundamentally intertwined with a country that’s been at perpetual war with all its neighbors. That’s currently engaged in ethnic cleansing of 400,000 people that it’s trying to starve out of the Gaza Strip so it can take their land.”

The Grayzone editor-in-chief highlighted Hegseth’s defense of soldiers who committed war crimes, like Eddie Ghallager who “shot little girls for fun in Afghanistan”, a story corroborated by the New York Post. Hegseth then advocated for Ghallager’s release.

While Blumenthal admitted it could be entertaining to see Hegseth clash with woke warmongers, that is ultimately a side-show and Fox News talking point that distracts from the bigger picture:

“The real issue isn’t whether the military is too gay… The issue is whether it’s going to continue to go to war to defend the strategic depth of a tiny little apartheid state thousands of miles away.”

Full Debate

Beattie and Blumenthal dissected most of the major cabinet appointments over the course of their 2-hour debate, so we suggest all readers enjoy the full discussion below:

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/19/2024 - 09:10

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