Who Really Drives Global Terrorism? Internal US Govt Data Offers A Surprising Answer

Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com

Every administration reaches for the same line. Iran, we are told, is the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism — a claim now central to the case for war. It carries the weight of an official designation: Iran has sat on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism since January 19, 1984, the longest-running designation currently on the books, alongside Cuba, North Korea, and Syria. The supporting figures get repeated as settled fact — more than a billion dollars a year in terror financing, and somewhere between 140,000 and 185,000 IRGC-Quds Force partner fighters spread across Afghanistan, Gaza, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen.

The problem is that the government's own record doesn't back the headline. The place to test the claim is the data the State Department itself publishes — the statistical annex to Country Reports on Terrorism, and before it Patterns of Global Terrorism, the congressionally mandated series that has catalogued international terrorist incidents year by year since 1990. When you actually read those tables, a different picture emerges from the one sold on cable news.

Who commits the attacks

The annex doesn’t sort attacks by sect, but it doesn’t need to. The identity of the top perpetrator groups tells the story on its own. Year after year across 2004–2023, the most active and lethal groups are Sunni: the Taliban, ISIS, Boko Haram, al-Qaeda and its affiliates, al-Shabaab, the TTP. On the order of nine in ten attacks in the reporting trace back to Sunni extremist actors operating out of the Salafi-jihadist tradition. None of them answer to Tehran. Most regard Shia Muslims — Iran very much included — as heretics, and target them accordingly. ISIS has spent years at open war with Iran and its allies.

A separate French dataset, compiled by FONDAPOL over a longer 1979–April 2024 window, lands in the same place. The five deadliest Islamist groups over that period account for better than 80 percent of all victims of Islamist terrorism — and every one of the five is Sunni: the Taliban, ISIS, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and al-Qaeda.

Where are the Iran-linked groups in all this? Largely absent from the top of the tables. Hezbollah and the Iran-aligned militias tend not to appear, in part because their operations are directed mainly at military forces rather than civilians, which places them outside the working definition of terrorism the reports use. The Houthis are the main Shia-linked group to surface in recent editions, and only as a small share of the total.

It is only in 2023 that three groups in Iran’s orbit — the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah — break into the top ten at all. They do so because of their attacks on Israel, and those attacks were aimed primarily at military targets. Before 2023, neither Hamas nor Hezbollah ranked among the groups responsible for the most attacks worldwide. That is a remarkable fact for two organizations routinely described as among the planet’s most prolific terrorists.

The Israeli numbers

Take the definition of terrorism that Benjamin Netanyahu himself uses — violence against civilians for political ends — and apply it to Israel’s own government data, drawn from the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s record of victims of Palestinian violence covering 2000 through April 2024. (That dataset predates and excludes the October 7, 2023 attack.)

Two things stand out. First, Palestinian attacks have trended downward since 2003. The peak sits in the 2000–2005 window — the Second Intifada. Across the full 24 years, 1,552 Israelis were killed and 5,595 wounded, and the violence is heavily concentrated in that early-2000s spike: roughly 76 percent of the deaths and 92 percent of the wounded fall within the Second Intifada years. Second, Hamas is not the terrorist engine the public imagination makes it out to be. Only about 15 percent of attacks over the 24-year span are attributed to Hamas, acting alone or with another faction. None of this makes Hamas a peace movement — it isn’t — but it is not an organization waging ceaseless slaughter either.

The rocket fire is the clearest case of rhetoric outrunning arithmetic. Hamas and Hezbollah have launched thousands of rockets at Israel over 25 years. The death toll specifically from those rockets across 2001–2025 is on the order of 50 to 75 people — not the “thousands” the coverage implies. The gap between the two numbers is the whole point.

Set against this is the asymmetry no honest accounting can skip. Israel killed an estimated 11,200–11,500 Palestinians between 2000 and October 6, 2023. Since October 7, the figure in Gaza has climbed past 73,000 by the Gaza Health Ministry’s count — a number an Israeli military official effectively conceded in January 2026, accepting more than 71,000 killed by direct Israeli fire.

Who actually funds the perpetrators

If the metric is real, it points somewhere other than Tehran. The Sunni groups that dominate the casualty tables have drawn financial support from the Gulf Arab states — and, more awkwardly, from the United States itself.

The paper trail runs through Syria: US and allied money reaching outfits spun off from ISIS, including the al-Nusra lineage that produced Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, whose leader Washington once had a $10 million bounty on before quietly retiring it. The same government that brands Iran the foremost sponsor of terrorism has, at various points, been a facilitator of the very groups doing the most killing.

The bottom line

The designation is doing political work, not analytical work. Iran is not, by the government’s own incident data, the major driver of global terrorism; the perpetrators overwhelmingly belong to a Sunni jihadist current that is hostile to Iran and financed from elsewhere.

A serious campaign against the sponsors of terrorism would start with the Gulf states, not with Tehran. Instead, a charge the data won’t support is being used as the pretext for an unprovoked war. A country living in a glass house should think twice before throwing rocks.

Anticipated objections — and the answers

“But Hamas and Hezbollah entered the top ten in 2023, so Iran’s proxies are major terrorists.” They entered in a single year, and only because of a war with Israel in which their fire was directed mainly at military targets — soldiers, bases, the IDF in the field. The State Department’s own definition turns on violence against civilians for political ends. A spike driven by attacks on an army during an active war is not evidence of sustained civilian-directed terrorism; it’s evidence of a shooting war. For the two prior decades of the reporting, neither group cracked the list of the world’s most active perpetrators. One year inside the top ten, produced by combat with a state military, does not overturn twenty outside it.

“You’re leaning on data that excludes October 7, 2023 — the deadliest single day in the whole record.” The exclusion is stated plainly, not smuggled: the Israeli Foreign Ministry dataset runs through the period before that attack, and October 7 is the largest single event on the Israeli side of the ledger. Grant it in full. It changes the total for one day; it does not change the structure of the twenty-year record, in which Palestinian violence trends downward after 2003 and Hamas accounts for roughly 15 percent of attacks. Nor does a single mass-casualty event convert Iran into the foremost global sponsor of terrorism, when the groups filling the casualty tables every other year — ISIS, the Taliban, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab — remain Sunni, anti-Shia, and unconnected to Tehran. October 7 is a real and terrible data point. It is not the trend, and it is not the sponsorship question.

“Body counts don’t measure sponsorship — the designation is about the support a state provides, not how many its proxies kill.” This is the fairest objection, and it’s worth meeting directly rather than dodging. Concede the distinction: state sponsorship is measured by money, weapons, and training, not by proxy casualty totals. But the “foremost sponsor” claim is almost never used that narrowly in practice. It is deployed to characterize the threat — to argue that Iran is the principal engine of the terrorism Americans should fear. Measured against the actual distribution of terrorist violence, that characterization collapses: the threat is overwhelmingly Sunni jihadist. And on the sponsorship axis itself, the framework is applied selectively. The Gulf states that financed Sunni networks, and the U.S. and allied money that reached groups spun off from ISIS in Syria, never draw the “number one sponsor” label. A designation that is consistent only when it points at Iran is a political instrument, not an analytical finding.

“Calling Hezbollah’s targets ‘primarily military’ whitewashes real atrocities.” The claim is about the pattern the reporting captures, not a denial that Hezbollah has ever killed civilians — it plainly has, from the 1980s bombings to attacks abroad. The point stands at the level of the aggregate data: across the reporting period, the group’s operations register mainly against military forces, which is precisely why it sits outside the top perpetrator tables that are built on civilian-directed attacks. Acknowledging the exceptions doesn’t move the aggregate.

*  *  *

Sources: U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism (statistical annex, 2004–2023) and Patterns of Global Terrorism; FONDAPOL, dataset on Islamist terrorism 1979–2024; Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, victims of Palestinian violence and terrorism 2000–2024; Gaza Health Ministry casualty figures. I have synthesized this from my previously published Sonar21 essays.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 23:25

"Fibermaxxing" Craze Forces Big Food Into Reformulation Cycle

BNP Paribas analysts say Gen Z's growing awareness of healthy, high-protein, high-fiber diets is accelerating a reformulation cycle across the Big Food industrial complex, as manufacturers race to make products more appealing to the youth and those on GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. 

In a report titled "Fiber Is the New Protein,” BNP analyst Joan Lim said the protein craze ignited by GLP-1 adoption has been coined "fibermaxxing," as younger consumers seek food products promising satiety, digestive health and weight-management benefits.

Consumer research firm Nielsen shows protein-rich categories have seen stronger volumes versus junk food categories. 

The global dietary fiber market was valued at roughly $9.6 billion in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.6% through 2034, as the fiber-maxxing trend gains even more momentum.

Fibermaxxing is already visible, according to Lim. Only 20% of people globally consume the recommended daily amount of fiber, yet social media posts using the #fibermaxxing hashtag attracted more than 150 million views on TikTok in 2025.

Food and beverage research firm Datassential found that 52% of US consumers are interested in trying fibermaxxing and 42% consider products labeled "high fiber" healthier.

Fiber has also overtaken probiotics in digestive-health marketing. Some 38% of products carrying a digestive-health claim now advertise high fiber, compared with 19% featuring probiotics. PepsiCo and Nestlé are among the big food companies that are placing fiber claims more prominently on their packaging.

About 35% of US consumers increased their protein intake between 2024 and 2025, while 75% said they would pay more for protein-rich foods and beverages. The global market for protein-rich products is estimated at $65 billion and growing at 6%-8% annually.

With GLP-1 penetration at 12% in the US and in the low single digits globally, adoption is expected to increase as the drugs become widely available in oral form and more affordable. Lim pointed out that "GLP-1 users need to consume more protein to mitigate the effects of muscle loss."

BNP identified Tate & Lyle and Ingredion as best positioned to benefit from fibermaxxing. 

Kerry Group, DSM-Firmenich, IFF, Givaudan and Novonesis could benefit from demand for flavors, enzymes, cultures and texture solutions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 23:00

Trained On 53 Million Pages: US Supercomputer-Backed Tool To Search Nuclear Reactor Data

Authored by Aman Tripathi via Interesting Engineering,

Nuclear power stations across North America have begun using a dedicated virtual system called NIVA. The software was created by Atomic Canyon in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute, the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, and the Nuclear Energy Institute.

Atomic Canyon collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to train the FERMI models. (Representational image)

It provides engineers and technicians across the commercial reactor fleet with an automated method to query vast archives of technical, operational, and regulatory records.

"The U.S. nuclear sector sits on decades of invaluable technical and operational knowledge, but too much of that knowledge remains difficult to access at the speed modern deployments require," said Trey Lauderdale, Founder & CEO, Atomic Canyon.

"The fleetwide availability of NIVA shows that AI in nuclear power is real, operational, and ready to be deployed responsibly at a fleetwide scale."

Technical architecture for model training

The technological foundation of the platform rests on a specialized model family named FERMI. Standard, general-purpose language systems frequently fail to parse the dense technical terminology, precise abbreviations, and domain-specific syntax common in nuclear engineering. FERMI was built to resolve this issue by interpreting technical meaning rather than simply scanning for exact keyword occurrences.

Atomic Canyon collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to train the models on the Frontier exascale supercomputer. The training dataset included more than 53 million pages of documentation from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The completed model weights are publicly available on the Hugging Face repository.

FERMI functions within an operational software interface called Neutron. While NIVA applies the retrieval models across broader sector archives, the Neutron environment links those capabilities directly to an individual station's private network. This structure lets local engineering departments run searches across their own licensing bases, routine maintenance logs, technical drawings, and operating procedures.

The current rollout provides plant personnel with two functional modules, alongside a third tool scheduled for future release.

Functional modules with commercial expansion plan

The first component is the Knowledge Assistant. Plant staff can enter queries in conversational phrasing to obtain direct answers extracted from verified technical repositories. The system sources information from NRC Regulatory Guides, NUREG reports, NEI guidelines, INPO standards, and EPRI research publications. Every output includes direct citations in the text, allowing engineers to verify statements against the original source documents.

The second component is the Operating Experience Assistant. This tool reviews historical plant performance logs and previous event reports. It evaluates the underlying context of a query instead of looking for surface-level word matches, and engineers can interact with the returned records through a conversational query window to investigate past equipment behavior. A third tool focused on diagnostic and troubleshooting tasks is undergoing software development, with plant trials planned for later this year.

The commercial deployment follows a six-month pilot evaluation period at several operating utilities, including Constellation Energy, which operates 21 reactors across 12 station sites.

Atomic Canyon previously tested its generative tools on-site at the Diablo Canyon facility managed by Pacific Gas and Electric Company.

To finance the expansion of the software across additional commercial sites, Atomic Canyon secured an investment round. Backers include NVIDIA, Plug and Play Ventures, and former Vanguard Group chairman Mortimer Buckley. The funds will support ongoing software engineering and integration across operating facilities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 22:35

Russia Says Ready For 'New Ideas' From US On Ending Ukraine War

The Kremlin has newly said it is ready for dialogue with Washington and open to ideas for ending the conflict in Ukraine, but still says it will not compromise on Russia's core aims.

A senior Russian diplomat has stressed that any future talks must align with President Vladimir Putin's position. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated in an interview published by national media on Friday that Russia is open to proposals that are in line with "realities on the ground."

"The Russian Federation is ready to listen to any reasonable proposals and ideas that are in line with the goals set by the Russian president and meet the ‘realities on the ground’," Ryabkov said.

"At this stage, it is more important to what extent Washington is able to influence the decisions of the Kyiv regime and its European sponsors, who still dream of a ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia," he added.

via Reuters

The remarks suggest that the Kremlin is responding positively and openly to recent overtures initiated by Washington.

"US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated the need to put forward new ideas toward a settlement, and we are ready to listen to them if this constitutes the mentioned 'efforts' of the Americans," Ryabkov continued.

"We remain open to dialogue with Washington, but that does not mean that we will abandon our fundamental positions," he added.

Time is working against Ukraine and its Western backers in Europe, "something they will have to reckon with," Ryabkov additionally pointed out.

President Trump has this summer signaled that his outlook on Ukraine's chances on the battlefield may have softened or changed of late:

By the time Trump and Zelensky met at a NATO summit in July, the American president said the Ukrainian leader had “been very effective” in the war. “We’ve actually developed a good relationship,” Trump added.

But as Ukraine’s strikes have intensified, so have Russia’s — and Kyiv faces major challenges in defending against them because of shortages of American Patriot air defense missiles.

Zelensky, for his part, has been explicit that the new long-range strikes are meant to force Moscow to the negotiating table under conditions that favor Kiev.

The LA Times has recently outlined significant developments this summer, which are part of this risky strategy:

• As part of the campaign against oil infrastructure, Kyiv said it hit Russia’s largest oil refinery, more than 1,550 miles from Ukraine.
• Kyiv has also targeted defense manufacturing centers. It hit a factory making navigation systems multiple times, including with its own Flamingo missile.
• In July and August, Ukraine struck warehouses for major Russian online retailer Wildberries. Kyiv said the company helps supply the Russian military. Moscow denies that.
• Many of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian air defenses and radar are around Russian-held Crimea and are often carried out with drones.

The feeling in Moscow is that it’s extremely unlikely Washington will authorise Starlink coverage for Ukrainian strike drones operating inside Russia because doing so would set a dangerous precedent likely eventually to backfire on the Americans.

The US benefits enormously from… https://t.co/JQwD4VWdXk

— Brian McDonald (@BrianMcDonaldIE) August 21, 2026

But there are still no signs that Russia's own retaliatory strikes are letting up - instead they are intensifying and becoming more and more deadly - also at a moment Ukraine's air defense munitions and capabilities are dwindling fast.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 22:10

The Six Nooses: How Interventionism Is Strangling The Family's Will To Reproduce

Authored by Felix Yang via the Mises Institute,

The total fertility rate needed to sustain a population is 2.1. Averaged over 2020-2024, South Korea's stands at 0.78, Taiwan's at 0.89, and Hong Kong's at 0.79. Mainstream demography still treats these as cultural anomalies, when they are in fact the terminal readings of a century-long experiment in administrative intervention.

The standard explanation blames housing costs, changing values, or the burden of raising children in a modern economy. Examined through the lens of praxeology - the deductive logic of human action - that explanation gets the causation backward.

Childbearing is, at bottom, a long-horizon investment: a rational actor accepts a low time preference, sinking two decades of capital and labor into a payoff that only matures across generations. That calculation depends entirely on a stable institutional environment in which the link between sacrifice and reward holds. Modern interventionism, the self-reinforcing pattern Mises identified in which each intervention's side effects become the pretext for the next, has severed that link through six distinct mechanisms.

The first is fiat-currency inflation. Since the Federal Reserve's founding in 1913, the dollar has lost more than 96 percent of its purchasing power. Money's evolved function as a store of value across time has been replaced by a bureaucratic IOU that depreciates by design. A family cannot rationally sink twenty years of capital into a child when the currency in which that capital is denominated is being quietly devalued year over year.

The second is the socialization of old-age support. Pay-as-you-go pension systems are, by their own actuarial logic, generational Ponzi schemes: they accumulate no real assets and depend entirely on new entrants to pay existing claims. The US Social Security Trustees project the OASI trust fund will exhaust its reserves by 2033, at which point benefits fall automatically to 77 percent of what has been promised. Once old age depends on the political solvency of a pooled fund rather than on the number or quality of children a person raises, raising children loses its economic rationale as an intergenerational contract.

The third is medical monopoly. Administrative licensing and price controls replace price rationing in healthcare with queue rationing; the scarcity remains, only relabeled. In Canada, the median wait from referral to specialist treatment now exceeds thirty weeks, the longest in the Fraser Institute's thirty-three years of tracking; an estimated 24,000 Canadians died last year while still waiting for treatment they were promised for free. When survival itself becomes a bureaucratic waiting list, family planning becomes an act of faith rather than calculation.

The fourth is the nationalization of education. Before compulsory public schooling, private and community-funded education had already brought English literacy to roughly 85 to 90 percent in Britain and the United States. Compulsory schooling was not introduced to fix a market failure; Prussia's own architects of the system said openly that its purpose was to discipline the individual will to the needs of the state.

Modern public education systems - lacking any price mechanism or profit-and-loss discipline - level toward mediocrity, forcing families into a second, private tuition market simply to buy back their children's competitiveness. Demographer John Caldwell's Wealth Flows Theory shows that fertility collapses precisely when the direction of intergenerational wealth reverses, from children supporting parents to parents indefinitely subsidizing children, a reversal driven above all by the spread of compulsory schooling.

The fifth is the stripping of housing sovereignty. Zoning and land-use regulation manufacture artificial scarcity, transferring wealth from young families to entrenched incumbents under the banner of protecting communities from externalities. A natural experiment between two American cities makes the point starkly. Houston has rejected zoning by popular referendum three times - in 1948, 1962, and 1993; its price-to-monthly-rent ratio (PM/R, sale price divided by monthly rent) sits near 108, and its total fertility rate holds at 1.98. San Francisco - fully regulated under the California Environmental Quality Act - has a PM/R above 360 and a fertility rate of 1.49. Even Houston's relatively favorable outcome still falls short of replacement, because housing freedom alone cannot offset the other five nooses operating at the federal level.

The sixth is administrative relief. When government nationalizes a function that was once a community mutual-aid contract grounded in local knowledge, it does not eliminate poverty; it manufactures a self-perpetuating administrative class with every incentive to manage poverty rather than end it, along with well-documented adverse selection. In the United States, the extension of welfare benefits conditioned on remaining unmarried is directly implicated. In Thomas Sowell's research, the rise of single-parent households among black Americans increased from roughly 22 to 67 percent between 1960 and 1985.

These six mechanisms compound each other rather than operating in isolation, closing a systemic trap across four dimensions of family sovereignty: the financial, the physical, the temporal, and the spiritual. Rome ran the same experiment two thousand years ago.

Bread-and-circuses welfare, currency debasement from a near-pure silver denarius to a five-percent-silver disc, and the administrative capture of the yeoman farmer class produced, over four centuries, the same terminal outcome: infant abandonment recorded in the papyrus record of Roman Egypt, and a city of a million reduced to roughly 100,000 residents by the sixth century.

The conclusion is not a call for better-designed subsidies. Every subsidy is simply a further extension of the same interventionist logic that caused the collapse in the first place. Each of the six nooses was, in its own time, sold to families as a trade: surrender this piece of sovereignty, and the state will guarantee that safety in return.

Benjamin Franklin's words - later carried into Hayek's The Road to Serfdom - exposed exactly where that trade always ends: those who would give up liberty for a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. The family bore that trade six times over and has a falling fertility rate to show for it - the safety was never delivered, and the liberty is gone.

The only path back is the restoration of private property and the family's own sovereignty over its financial, physical, and intergenerational decisions.

Felix Yang is the author of "Why the Cradle Stands Empty: How Interventionism Strangles Fertility."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 21:45

Assistant U.S. Attorney Found Dead Inside Federal Building

A high-ranking federal prosecutor was found dead inside a Southern California federal building on Wednesday, just hours after he was reported missing.

Andrew Haden, Illustration via Wonderwall

Andrew Haden, 48, the No. 2 official in the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of California, was discovered in a vacant office at the Edward J. Schwartz Federal Building, officials said.

The county Medical Examiner's Office will determine the official cause and manner of death, but a source told the San Diego Union-Tribune that investigators believe Haden died by suicide.

Haden was a 16-year veteran of the office who climbed the ranks after joining in 2010 through the Attorney General's Honors Program. Haden served as first assistant U.S. attorney and previously ran both the Violent Crimes & Human Trafficking Section and the Criminal Division. The federal prosecutor was also a U.S. Navy veteran and a father of two school-aged children.

U.S. Attorney Adam Gordon broke the news to staffers in an email Thursday.

"This is one of the darkest days in our office's history, but there was nothing dark about Andrew Haden's life," Gordon wrote. "He was a beacon of light — full of laughter, friendship, integrity and unwavering commitment to serving our community.

"We will honor his life and legacy by carrying his light forward, today and always," he added.

Even the defense attorneys who squared off against him were rattled. Jeremy Warren, who faced Haden in court time and again, told the newspaper "the fact that we remained friends throughout is a testament to the type of guy he was," calling the death "a huge blow to the entire federal community in San Diego."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 21:20

Wealth Exodus: Australians Flock To Property Investment Over Business

Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times,

Fewer Australians are putting their capital into businesses, with the drop most acute among the wealthy, new data from the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) shows. Instead, more wealth is flowing into property.

A food delivery worker waits to collect an order at a shop in the Sydney CBD in Sydney, Australia, on Aug. 15, 2026. George Chan/Getty Images

The proportion of working-age Australians who run a business which employs people fell from 13.8 percent in 2002 to just 9.8 percent in 2022, according to the report called "Bricks, not Businesses."

Over the same period, the numbers of people who own at least one investment property went up by 8.1 percentage points.

That trend is even more pronounced among the wealthiest 20 percent of households, where the share of wealth tied to business fell from 11 percent in 2002 to 4.4 percent in 2022.

Meanwhile, the share of wealth tied to investment properties rose from 10.2 percent to 14.2 percent.

Challenging Business Conditions

The economic climate has long been tough for businesses. In the 2025-26 financial year, 375,331 businesses exited the market, a number broadly similar to the previous three years. Some, such as Sydney's Lamia Super Deli, were forced to close after decades of serving customers.

In 2024, business closures reached COVID-era levels, with hospitality the worst hit, and that trend has worsened since.

And more businesses are being forced to shut their doors after running into financial difficulties.

In 2024, there were 11,053 instances of companies entering administration or voluntary liquidation. That number rose to 14,722 in 2025 before dipping only marginally to 14,011 in the 2025-26 financial year.

CEDA Economist Daniel Beadle said property investment remained a better option than owning a business in an increasingly uncertain economy.

"That's not a coincidence. It's the predictable result of a tax and policy system that rewards passive investment in existing property over the kind of productive risk-taking that creates new businesses, new jobs and a more dynamic economy," he said.

According to the analysis, policies like negative gearing and the capital gains discount have consistently favoured real estate over business investment, while assistance for start-ups and small enterprises has lagged behind.

Despite a 64 percent increase in prices since 2007, small business capital gains concessions have remained at the same asset and turnover thresholds.

And the flight of capital from business to property is particularly the case among high-net-worth individuals and families, CEDA has found.

"The Australians most financially equipped to take a risk on a new business are doing so less, with more of their wealth concentrated in property," Beadle said.

Policies Have Favoured Property

The drivers of declining entrepreneurship are complex and layered, but addressing distortions that favour property investment over businesses can help correct this trend, the report said.

It also found that the federal budget for 2026-27 and subsequent policies, such as new assistance for small and young businesses and changes to negative gearing and the capital gains discount have made "meaningful progress" in rebalancing these incentives.

"These changes are a genuine step in the right direction," Beadle said. "Removing some of the long-standing advantages enjoyed by property investors, while improving conditions for people starting a business, is exactly the kind of rebalancing we need."

The economist cautioned, however, that tax settings alone would not be sufficient to revitalise the nation's entrepreneurial base, emphasising that CEDA would closely monitor measures announced in the federal budget to reduce the regulatory burden.

"Businesses consistently tell us that regulation is one of the biggest handbrakes on getting started and growing. In some cities, opening something as simple as a café can mean working through more than 30 separate council steps before you've sold a single coffee," he said.

Although there are concerns that falling home prices could have a greater impact on household wealth as more people invest their capital in housing rather than productive assets, Beadle said these concerns were exaggerated.

Even after recent falls, national dwelling prices remain more than double their 2010 level.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 20:55

US Treasury Classifies Hezbollah As Arm Of The IRGC, Not A 'Stand-Alone' Group

The new US Treasury sanctions on Hezbollah unveiled Thursday do more than ever before in 'legally' classifying the Lebanese militant group as essentially an arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Treasury action - which is certainly not the first designation against the group - underscored that it operated in "service to the Iranian regime under the command of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps."

A State Department official characterized the re-designation as specifying that Hezbollah is an "Iranian proxy, not a stand-alone operation as implied by the previous designation."

"This action builds on years of US designations that have repeatedly documented the operational, financial, and logistical integration between Hizballah and the IRGC-QF," the official also stated, calling Hezbollah "an extension" of the IRGC's Quds Force.

"This underscores that Hezbollah operates with little to no regard for Lebanese sovereignty, the Lebanese people, or the Lebanese state," the US official added, which reflects longstanding Washington policy toward Lebanon.

The Treasury action had additionally targeted ten individuals accused of being part of a network that transfers cash to the Shia group.

Hezbollah has responded Friday by stating that this action "will not deter" its fighting against Israel.

"All these unjust sanctions and classifications will not deter us from adhering to the path of resistance and the right of Lebanon and the Lebanese to defend their land, sovereignty and resources," the fresh Hezbollah statement said.

The statement also asserted that the paramilitary group "does not need anyone to vouch for its Lebanese identity and patriotism." However, it boasted that "Our close and fraternal relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran is a relationship we cherish and are proud of."

While long-running cooperation between Iran and Hezbollah is obvious, including in the context of the Syrian proxy war - wherein the two defended Assad - most scholars of Lebanese history tend to see the group as springing out of a legitimately local or regional movement tied to Shia grievances and lack of representation in Lebanon's impoverished south.

It was largely a latecomer in the Lebanese Civil War, but has grown to be the most powerful and well-armed faction among all the different players in Lebanon. 

The group is even more powerful than the small Mediterranean country's national army, and has been in a decades long war with Israel for control of contested border regions, and standing against Israeli occupation of Lebanese lands as well as the Syrian Golan Heights.

But Washington's new action is ultimately tied to the broader economic war towards completely isolating Iran and its proxies - something likely to prove easier said than done, given Russia and China are not going to play along, as well as perhaps much of the Global South and BRICS nations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 20:30

Let Americans Keep The Savings They Find

Authored by Wendy Barnes via RealClearPolitics,

As candidates spend the coming months telling voters how they would transform American health care, they should not overlook reforms that could make care more accessible and affordable without requiring complex new government programs.

Millions of Americans are already trying to make their health care dollars go further. They compare prices, explore alternatives to insurance, and choose lower-cost ways to obtain prescriptions and routine care. Yet federal policies often penalize them for doing exactly what policymakers say they want consumers to do: shop carefully and choose the best value option.

A practical health care affordability agenda should begin with a simple principle: When Americans use their own money to pay for legitimate health care, government rules should help that money go further.

Policymakers can put that principle into practice in two ways.

First, consumers should receive credit for the money they actually spend on prescriptions.

Consider a consumer whose insurance requires an $80 out-of-pocket payment for a prescription. That same drug may be available for $30 through a cash-pay option. Choosing the $30 price should be an easy decision.

But under many health plans, that spending may not count toward the consumer's deductible or annual out-of-pocket maximum because the prescription was purchased outside of traditional insurance. The consumer saves $50 at the pharmacy counter but forfeits credit for the $30 spent.

That is not how a system designed to encourage cost-conscious choices should work.

The Every Dollar Counts Act, introduced this year by Rep. Greg Murphy, M.D., offers a straightforward solution that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle should support. It would require out-of-pocket spending on covered prescription drugs to count toward a consumer's deductible and out-of-pocket maximum regardless of where the medication is purchased.

Americans should not have to choose between finding the lowest available price and receiving the full value of their insurance. If enacted, this legislation would help remove that tradeoff.

Second, Congress should modernize flexible spending accounts (FSAs) and health savings accounts (HSAs) to reflect how people receive health care today. These accounts allow consumers to use pre-tax dollars for qualified medical expenses, but health care delivery is evolving more quickly than the rules governing which expenses qualify.

Consumers increasingly use low-cost memberships that provide access to discounted prescriptions, virtual visits, or other health care services. In many cases, a consumer can use FSA or HSA funds for the prescription or appointment itself, but not for the membership that unlocks the lower price.

Congress has already begun to recognize that health care memberships can be legitimate medical expenses. As of this year, certain direct primary care memberships can be paid tax-free from an HSA under a change implemented through IRS guidance. But that change is narrowly limited, leaving out broader memberships that may combine prescription savings, virtual care, and other services.

Lawmakers should extend the same principle to other health care memberships and to HSAs and FSAs. Clear eligibility standards and reasonable monthly limits could prevent abuse while allowing consumers to use their own health care dollars for services specifically designed to reduce the cost of care.

Neither of these proposals would replace insurance or require Washington to construct a new health care system. They would simply update existing policies to reflect how Americans already seek and pay for care.

Candidates will continue debating ambitious plans throughout the election season. But affordability is also shaped by technical rules with very real consequences: whether a consumer's spending counts, whether personal health care funds can be used, and whether someone can confidently choose a lower price.

Washington should give people credit for making responsible health care decisions. When Americans find a legitimate way to pay less for the care they need, public policy should reward that choice.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

Wendy Barnes is president and CEO of GoodRx, the leading platform for prescription access and affordability.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 20:05

Buying May Not Beat Renting Until Retirement In Some Expensive Markets: Zillow

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

For a typical U.S. household, it can take decades to save for a home and reach the point where buying becomes cheaper than renting, with the timeline stretching into retirement in some expensive markets, according to an Aug. 20 Zillow report.

A "for sale" sign is posted in front of a home for sale in San Marino, Calif., on Sept. 6, 2023. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Zillow calculated the number of years that a household saving 10 percent of the area's median income would need to save for a 20 percent down payment on either a typical single-family or starter home. The break-even period was when the cumulative cost of owning a home fell below the cost of renting a similar home.

Nationally, Zillow found that after about 15 years, the average household can reach the point where purchasing a home becomes financially advantageous compared with renting for the same amount of time. This includes about 8.5 years of saving for the down payment and another 6.2 years to break even on the purchase.

For starter home purchases, the saving and break-even point is much shorter, at just 7.2 years, compared with renting a multifamily unit.

However, in some high-cost markets, the timeline can be very long. In San Diego, where the median list price was $1.23 million as of July 31, it takes nearly 50 years to reach that point - the longest timeline nationwide.

Other notable markets with lengthy saving and break-even periods include Boston, New York City, and Seattle - all at more than 27 years.

"The common wisdom is that saving early to buy a home is the smart financial move, but the reality is more nuanced," Zillow senior economist Kara Ng said in the report.

"The breakeven number tells you something about a market that a price tag alone doesn't. Buyers should think about not just when they can afford to buy, but how long they'd need to stay before owning makes more financial sense than renting."

Ng added that while homeownership provides equity and stability, renting can offer more flexibility and freedom from unexpected household bills.

On Aug. 18, Zillow reported that the typical asking rent increased to $1,962 nationally in July - a 2.3 percent annual jump and the fastest pace in more than a year. Based on that rent, Zillow said a household would need an annual income of $78,488 to afford it, compared with nearly $100,000 to afford a typical mortgage payment.

In Memphis, Tennessee, which had a median list price of $168,423 as of the end of July, the timeline shrank to 11 years, the shortest in the country.

The report also shows that the number of years required to save a down payment in Austin, Texas, skewed lower than the national average, at just eight years. At the end of July, the median list price there was $563,250. However, it notes that due to declining rents, that same buyer would need another 18 years to break even on the purchase compared with renting, surpassing the national average by more than three times.

Miami, meanwhile, presented a contrasting case: Buyers needed about 13 years to save for a down payment but could break even with renting in just 9.6 years. Miami's median list price stood at $646,600 as of July 31.

Zillow noted that in 2019, the combined timeline was 11 years nationwide - about four years shorter than today. It said the housing shortage of some 4.7 million homes was contributing to rising costs and longer timelines for both saving and breaking even.

"The metros with the largest shortages tend to also have the longest break-even timeline," the report says.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 19:15

Mobility Data Flashes Warning Sign Along Pakistan's Iran-Linked Copper-Corridor

AI-powered geospatial data platform xMap's data scientist, Dana Harrison, asked in a LinkedIn post: "Can Mobility Data Spot Commodity Supply Risk Before the Market Does?"

Harrison used location data from points of interest and human mobility data to focus on what she says are "changes in human movement" over recent months along Pakistan's Chagai copper-gold corridor, home to Saindak and the massive Reko Diq development, which is located near the Iranian border.

Harrison continued:

On this episode of The Reckless Rabithole, I noodled around with xMap mobility data along Pakistan's Chagai copper-gold corridor, home to Saindak and the massive Reko Diq development.

During a period of growing security and logistics disruptions, mobility in Nushki and Dalbandin began to diverge materially from comparable locations elsewhere in Balochistan, with both ending July roughly 20 index points below the regional benchmark.

Not suggesting mobility caused or predicted the disruption. But it raises a question I find much more interesting:

Could changes in human movement provide an early signal of operational stress around critical-mineral supply chains?

The data does not directly track copper shipments and/or mine production. It merely shows overall human movement is declining, and sharp declines may suggest road restrictions, security operations, reduced commercial activity, telecommunications outages, or population displacement along the N-40 Highway, the main artery connecting Quetta with Nushki, Dalbandin, Saindak, and Pakistan's border with Iran.

Source: x-Map's Dana Harrison

For context, the Chagai copper-gold corridor lies largely along the N-40 Highway near both Iran and Afghanistan and contains two strategically important mining assets:

Given President Trump's "ECONOMIC D-DAY" statement against Iran earlier this week, in which he warned that any country working with Iran would suffer "severe economic consequences," it remains an open-ended question why mobility is declining in Pakistan's critical-mineral corridor (near Iran). However, this type of data may hint at potential future supply disruptions emerging from the region.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 18:50

Supreme Court Chief Justice Pauses Block On White House Ballroom Construction

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts on Aug. 21 said the Trump administration can proceed with construction of a new White House ballroom.

Roberts, in a brief order, paused the preliminary injunction that had been entered by a U.S. district judge and upheld by a federal appeals court.

The lower court order “is hereby stayed pending further order of The Chief Justice or of the Court,” Roberts said, granting an appeal from the Trump administration.

Construction of the planned 90,000-square-foot ballroom began in 2025. Its cost has been pegged at $400 million, with financing coming from private donors.

Judge Richard Leon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia in March entered the preliminary injunction against construction of the ballroom.

Leon said that there are no laws that give the president the authority to build the ballroom and that construction must stop until Congress authorized the ballroom’s completion, even if private funds are being used for the work. Leon later clarified that the block was for above-ground construction.

A panel of judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of ​Columbia Circuit in April temporarily halted Leon’s injunction as it considered the case.

A majority of the panel on Aug. 7 reinstated the injunction. The majority said that “whether or not a massive ballroom should be constructed is for Congress to decide and is not a matter for Executive self-help” and that Congress had not ceded “unfettered authority” to the president to dramatically alter the White House.

That prompted the government’s appeal to the Supreme Court.

U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer said in the emergency application to the court that a quick decision was imperative because the injunction would halt work that was “vitally required by national security.”

Officials have also said that a completed ballroom would host crucial diplomatic functions and that construction delays give foreign countries more time to gather intelligence on the White House complex.

The National Trust for Historic Preservation, which filed the case, told Roberts that a removal of the injunction would cause irreparable harm because the ballroom will be substantially finished soon absent an injunction, and be virtually impossible to deconstruct once completed, citing administration statements.

“The injuries to the National Trust, its members, and the public from the unauthorized construction of the ballroom—catalogued by Petitioners’ own Environmental Assessment and already found to be irreparable by the lower courts—will in all likelihood become irreversible,” it said in a filing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 18:25

The Push To Bring Back Recess Time In Public Schools

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

Spencer Taylor describes his high school experience as a dark time, rife with detentions, suspensions, and over-medicated peers who acted up because they, too, couldn't sit still in class all day.

New students tour Nora Sterry Elementary School in Los Angeles on Jan. 15, 2025. There is a nationwide push to bring back or increase recess time for public school students. (Chris Delmas/AFP via Getty Images

"You would have maybe five minutes to go out and see the sun," the Michigan native recalled. "We just needed to run around. We just needed to get all our energy out. ... I barely graduated."

Fifteen years later, Taylor released a documentary about a similar problem affecting millions of U.S. students, "The Death of Recess."

He researched laws and policies across the nation and visited schools across several U.S. states and Europe. He snuck into a national teachers union annual meeting to understand why so many competing interests continually overshadow conversations about school recess time.

"There's no voice that represents the parents and students," Taylor said during a June panel discussion hosted by The Heritage Foundation in Washington. "Everybody's trying to get a hold of those valuable minutes of the kids being in the classroom because they view that - they all view it - as social engineering."

The film, released earlier this year, coincides with a nationwide push to bring back or increase recess time for public school students based on research citing higher academic achievement and improved mental health in children who attend schools with more free play time between blocks of instruction.

Thirteen states now have laws requiring recess periods until at least middle school, while 12 states have passed legislation mandating minimum "physical activity" minutes per week that can include recess and physical education class.

In May, the American Academy of Pediatrics updated its guidance on school recess, calling for multiple 20-minute breaks per day. A new parent organization, Say Yes to Recess, is lobbying policymakers and elected leaders across the nation.

"The issue has created this momentum," Debra Lawrence, president of the U.S. affiliate of the International Play Association, told The Epoch Times. "Parents are talking."

A student studies in a classroom in Nevitt Elementary School in Phoenix on Oct. 26, 2022. Research suggests higher academic achievement and improved mental health in children who attend schools with more free play time between blocks of instruction. Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images Policy

In December 2025, Johns Hopkins University published a policy guide for advancing recess in school laws.

Its model legislation calls for at least 20 minutes of daily recess for grades K through 8 and mandates that schools cannot withhold recess from children as a disciplinary measure. There should also be enforcement and accountability measures, it says, along with an explanation of how districts and states will monitor the requirement.

The Department of Health and Human Services recommends at least 60 minutes of daily physical activity for children aged 6 to 17, regardless of whether that's at school, at home, or elsewhere, while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises that the 20 minutes of daily elementary school recess should be supplemented by regular physical education classes, the policy report states.

Lawrence said there should be a clear national standard for recess, preferably outdoor unstructured play, covering kindergarten through 12th grade. Twenty minutes a day for elementary school children, she added, isn't much if that includes the time students take to put on jackets and boots, get in line, and make their way out of the building.

Her organization recommends up to 15 minutes of outdoor recess time for every 45 minutes of instruction, a longstanding practice in Finland.

Short-term memory breaks are needed for information to be absorbed into the brain, while long-term memory develops with proper sleep.

"Their little brains need a break," she said.

Students run and play on the playground at Freedom Preparatory Academy in Provo, Utah, on Sept. 10, 2020. In May, the American Academy of Pediatrics updated its guidance on school recess, calling for multiple 20-minute breaks per day. George Frey/AFP via Getty Images State Legislation

South Carolina is the latest state to mandate recess. Its law, which was signed in June and takes effect this academic year, requires 20 minutes of unstructured outdoor recess time for pre-K through eighth grade in addition to 90 minutes of physical education class per week.

Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia enacted school recess-related laws last year. California, Connecticut, and Washington state enacted laws in 2024.

In Kansas earlier this year, Gov. Laura Kelly vetoed legislation that would have required 30 minutes of daily recess for elementary school students. Similar legislation in Oregon and Utah failed, but passed in Oklahoma.

New York state legislators are still considering a measure providing 30 minutes of daily recess to K-6 students. It also prohibits school leaders from withholding recess for disciplinary reasons.

Ohio state House Reps. Tom Young and Melanie Miller have introduced legislation calling for 30 minutes of morning and 30 minutes of afternoon recess for students through eighth grade. Gov. Mike DeWine supports the measure.

"Developing healthy habits can help every Ohioan reach their God-given potential," he said of the proposal during his March 10 state of the state address.

Students leave P.S. 234 after their first day of school in Astoria, New York City on Sept. 4, 2014. New York state legislators are still considering a measure providing 30 minutes of daily recess to students in grades K-6. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times Parent Organizations

The Say Yes to Recess group was formed by three mothers in early 2025, after a local push for more outdoor time for kids in Tennessee resulted in only a 10-minute increase.

After successfully pushing a state mandate in the Volunteer State, the organization launched a national movement for 60 minutes of unstructured play. It now has chapters in 18 states. Additional chapters in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Utah are expected in the coming months, according to its website.

Kathryn Truman, one of the group's founders, said Say Yes to Recess prevailed in Tennessee because it found practical solutions without extending the length of the school day to accommodate more recess time while still complying with state curriculum mandates.

"Some instructional time requirements were recommendations rather than state mandates," Truman told The Epoch Times. "This distinction created opportunities for schools to reorganize their schedules and prioritize recess without lengthening the school day."

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 17:40

Former Alabama Basketball Player Wins Defamation Suit Against NY Times

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

An Alabama jury ruled on Aug. 20 that The New York Times defamed ex-college basketball player Kai Spears when the newspaper falsely reported in 2023 that he was present during a fatal shooting in Tuscaloosa.

Kai Spears #32 of the Alabama Crimson Tide dribbles the ball during a practice session at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on April 5, 2024. Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Spears, who was then a walk-on basketball player for the University of Alabama's Crimson Tide, filed a defamation suit against the newspaper in May 2023 after it falsely reported that he was one of the passengers in a car involved in the Jan. 15, 2023, shooting that killed 23-year-old mother Jamea Harris.

After a nine-day trial, the eight-person jury in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama sided with Spears and awarded him $9.25 million in damages.

Spears's attorney Matt Glover welcomed the ruling in a statement, saying he believed it would help improve journalism across the country.

Charlie Stadtlander, a spokesperson for the NY Times, said the company was disappointed by the jury's decision to hold it liable for he called "an honest mistake" and will review its legal options.

"We thank the jury for its service, but believe the verdict and award of damages are contrary to law and not supported by the evidence," the spokesperson said in a statement.

The case stemmed from a 2023 article that identified Spears as being present during the shooting, citing an anonymous source.

Spears said in his complaint that the newspaper's false reporting had affected his education and his ability to advance in basketball. He also said the false statements would permanently associate him with the murder.

The newspaper later issued an editor's note, saying that its article "misidentified the person who was in the car with Brandon Miller when the shooting occurred" and that it regretted the error.

"Based on information from a person familiar with the case, the article erroneously identified that person as Kai Spears, a freshman basketball player. After the article was initially published, Alabama's athletic director and Spears's father denied that Spears was present," the editor's note said.

The newspaper "included those responses and reviewed its reporting, but did not conclude that any other change to the article was warranted at that time," it added.

The New York Times headquarters in New York City on Dec. 7, 2009. Mario Tama/Getty Images

The newspaper said its editors assigned further reporting after Spears filed the suit, which "determined that the other person at the scene was not Spears."

A NY Times article reporting on the verdict Thursday said the newspaper "had not lost a defamation lawsuit brought in the United States over one of its articles in more than 50 years."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 17:00

Trump To Flood US With 300,000 Tons Of Tariff-Free Ground Beef To Tame Prices Ahead Of Midterms

With 74 days remaining until the midterm elections and average retail ground-beef prices hovering near $7 per pound, President Trump said in a Truth Social post Friday morning that his administration will temporarily waive certain tariffs on ground-beef imports. The move follows our Monday report highlighting signs that consumers are balking at record beef prices, with demand destruction beginning to surface against a backdrop of household stress, including Walmart sales that missed estimates and dismal July retail-sales data.

"Today, I concluded a deal to substantially lower the price of ground beef for working American families. As everyone knows, under President Biden, beef prices soared at their fastest rate and the American beef herd fell to its smallest size in modern history," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump continued, "As we work to rebuild this herd and help our ranchers, for the next 90 days, the United States will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out-of-quota tariff."

He concluded, "We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices. This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again."

The temporary import waiver appears intended to address affordability concerns in supermarket aisles ahead of the midterm elections.

Because the relief is temporary, the longer-term supply backdrop remains challenging. Bank of America analysts recently cited Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, who warned that the US cattle cycle is unlikely to improve anytime soon and that beef prices are poised to remain elevated through at least next year.

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the national average price of ground beef in supermarkets is hovering just below $7 per pound, a record high, as a prolonged cattle shortage shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

New data from Chicago-based market research company Circana, first published by Bloomberg on Monday, show that beef sales volumes declined .3% during the 13 weeks through mid-July. Volumes had risen about 5% during the same period in each of the previous two years. The decline is notable because it occurred during the peak grilling season around Memorial Day and July Fourth. Translation: demand destruction.

Source: Bloomberg

Read:

• When Will The Cattle Cycle Turn? BofA Has Answers For Beef Lovers

With the cattle cycle likely to take several years to rebound properly, we recently outlined the one overlooked protein that is far cheaper than beef (read here).

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 16:40

Remember The Names

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“. . . it’s subversion and nothing about it is accidental. it’s a well worn playbook to use the democratic institutions of a high trust state to destroy a civilization.”

- El Gato Malo on Substack

An eerie quiet masks the panic rising among the many players in the long-running train of crimes carried out under color-of-law against the people of this country that goes roughly under the clunky name of The Grand Conspiracy. What is Joe DiGenova up to, exactly, in the Southern District of Florida, with its several grand juries grinding away? Indictments will fly, for sure, but then who will flip on whom? It won’t take a whole lot of flippers to seal many fates in this skein of sedition and treason. The tension must be terrible for them.

The question has long been: how do you even begin to organize a set of coherent cases around this roaring avalanche of nefarious acts that got bigger with each successive attempt at cover-up?

Let’s see if we can block out a panoramic picture of potential prosecutions.

The gigantic mess must be separated into packets.

It’s probably best to begin with the FBI’s “Midyear Exam” op of 2016 - the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server. You can bet that the server contained evidence of HRC’s two seminal crimes that kicked things off: 1) the transfer of US military technology to Russia’s Skolkovo high-tech hub and payments from seventeen companies involved coincidentally received by the Clinton Foundation when she was Sec’y of State; and 2) the “Uranium One” deal transferring US-owned nuke material to Russia (via Canada) that required a State Dept signoff by HRC — coincident with husband Bill receiving a half-million dollar “lecture fee” from a Russian bank. Players involved in Midyear Exam: Comey, Strzok, McCabe, Page, then-AG Loretta Lynch.

That potential embarrassment of this sketchy business was simply squashed by Lynch and Comey, while HRC took care to physically destroy the server and devices linked to it. But it also prompted the creation of the Russian collusion prank against then-candidate Donald Trump, (“Crossfire Hurricane”) to distract attention from all that. . . which turned into the huge RussiaGate operation that marshaled the FBI, the CIA, the Senate Intel Committee, and offices deep in the Pentagon to put over a gigantic hoax. It was green-lighted by President Barack Obama and organized by CIA-Director John Brennan, with FBI Director Comey and DNI James Clapper. Supporting players (potential defendants) include Susan Rice, Sally Yates, Veep Joe Biden (or “Joe Biden”), then White House aide Lisa Monaco, and CIA agent Eric Ciaramella (who wrote the actual Intel Community Assessment that jump-started the op). McCabe, Stzrok, Page, Ohr (and wife, Nellie), Rosenstein, and many FBI agents are potential defendants. Also Gina Haspel, CIA London station chief, who coordinated with the UK’s MI6 agent, Christopher Steele of the Steele Dossier. Throw in DOD-sponsored spook Stefan Halper and FBI liaison in London, Alan Kohler. After May, 2017, Christopher Wray was responsible for all FBI mischief and FISA Court irregularities (along with FISA Judge James Boasberg).

The Mueller Investigation was a subset of RussiaGate, but deserves its own case packet. It was an attempt to legitimize the RussiaGate hoax, and to keep the news media fed with innuendo. In effect it was a hoax unto itself, consumed $32-million, and ran nearly two years. It produced exactly nothing in evidence that President Trump had “colluded” with Russia about anything. Since Robert Mueller was mentally incapacitated, the investigation was run by subordinates, Aaron Zebley, Andrew Weissmann. Attorneys Jeanie Rhee, Elizabeth Prelogar, Brandon Van Grack and others. It was a fraud on the public and probably an obstruction of justice.

Impeachment No. 1 (the Ukraine phone call impeachment) was an entirely false operation cooked up by lawfare ninja Norm Eisen in collusion with Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Adam Schiff, with assistance from CIA agent (“whistleblower”) Eric Ciaramella and NSC member Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, with a boost from then-IC Inspector General Michael Atkinson. Eisen later admitted on a video that the aim of the impeachment was to “prebunk” Veep “Joe Biden’s” bribery and grift activities in Ukraine as the Democratic party prepared to run him for president in 2020. Ciaramella had accompanied Veep “Joe Biden” on several trips to Ukraine and knew what “JB” was up to there. Indict them all for sedition and treason.

The 2020 election op was pulled off in coordination with the Covid-1 scam that positioned the nation for massive mail-in ballot fraud, which was coordinated by lawfare ninja Marc Elias, then employed by the Democratic Party law firm Perkins Coie. Elias was assisted by Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook, now Meta), whose nonprofit, Center for Tech and Civic Life (CTCL), distributed over $400-million to roughly 2500 election districts around the country, much of it used to pay select officials who would count and report mail-in ballots. The mail-in ballot fraud had been planned and gamed-out previously by the non-profit org Transition Integrity Project, run by Rosa Brooks and Nils Gilman.

In October 2020, fifty-one former intel officials signed a public letter denouncing the Hunter Biden laptop as having “the earmarks of Russian disinformation.” The letter was organized by Antony Blinken and former CIA-Director Michael Morrell. It was done in coordination with a social media campaign to suppress public knowledge of the laptop (and the Biden family record of international grift inside it) to influence the presidential election a month later. Potential fraud indictments.

The Jan 6 riot at the US Capitol has never been adequately investigated. FBI Director Wray was allowed to evade answering to Congress about the number of FBI agents and associated employees (including CIA personnel) that were mixed in with the crowd to provoke the intrusion inside the building and related violence. Speaker Nancy Pelosi engineered the situation so that the certification of electoral vote slates would not be challenged as procedure allowed. Sedition and Treason.

The Jan 6 Congressional Committee was a fraud on the American people put together by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to coverup her involvement in the crimes behind the Jan 6 Capitol riot. The members involved likely enjoy Congressional immunity for the spectacle itself, but perhaps not for destroying all the evidence that was collected in the course of the investigation. Chairman Bennie G. Thompson was responsible for that.

The Mar-a-Lago raid of August 2022 was authorized by Attorney General Merrick Garland and carried out by FBI Director Wray with Assistant Director Steven D’Antuono. Three months later, Garland appointed Jack Smith Special Counsel to oversee the Mar-a-Lago documents case, which he botched, resulting in its dismissal two years later. The raid itself arguably lacked probable cause and was based on an improper scope of evidence sought. Indict Merrick Garland under 18 U.S.C. § 241, conspiracy against rights.

The lawfare operations of 2023-2024 in several jurisdictions resulted in indictments against candidate Donald Trump and others in Fulton County, GA, and New York City. The Fulton County case under DA Fani Willis (later disqualified for “the appearance of impropriety”) was assisted by the “Joe Biden” White House, possibly by attorneys Richard Sauber and Beth Mueller in the WH Counsel’s Office, giving it the odor of a purely political prosecution. In the the Stormy Daniels hush money case against Donald Trump brought by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, DOJ officer Matthew Colangelo left his cushy position as Principal Deputy Associate US Attorney General to take a job assisting DA Bragg in the NYC court. Colangelo delivered the opening statement at the 2024 trial and played a central role in the prosecution. The trial was presided over by political judge Juan Merchan. Just days ago, The New York Times reported that the Democratic Party fundraising company, Authentic Campaigns, previously owned by Judge Merchan’s daughter, Loren Merchan, has been under investigation the past year. Anybody detect the odor of politics? Malicious prosecution, improper judicial conduct.

Many of the political celebrities mentioned above, and probably many not-so-well-known players, must be freaking out as the waves ominously pound the beach and the summer days tick down toward the ill winds of fall. I’m pretty sure that readers and commentors can add some candidates to the list of potential indictments, and perhaps some ops I might have overlooked. (The entire odious Covid-19 affair is partly a separate matter, but that has also commenced a new phase with the guilty plea deal announced days ago by Dr. Fauci’s chief advisor, Dr. David Morens.) Even former President Obama looks boxed-in. He enjoys immunity from actions he took as president, but that immunity prevents him from hiding behind the fifth amendment as a now-private citizen in a court of law.

Things are livening up.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 16:20

ICE Arrests 5 Suspected Child Predators In Undercover Operation

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested five suspected child predators during an operation in Omaha, Nebraska, between Aug. 12 and 14, the agency said in an Aug. 20 statement.

(L–R) Bryan Dady, Jocsan Aparicio Santos, Logan Trigg, Law Eh, and Tillian Hutton were arrested for suspected sexual crimes against children in Omaha, Nebraska, between Aug. 12 and 14. Courtesy of ICE

The undercover operation was carried out by ICE's Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Omaha unit together with state and local partners. Among the five arrested and charged, three had prior convictions for sexual crimes against children and were also listed on sex offender registries, the agency said.

If convicted on the new charges, these three individuals could face enhanced penalties, likely adding 10 more years to any sentence.

ICE said the HSI is "delivering on President Trump and Secretary Mullin's mandate to protect America's children."

More than 5,000 child predators and human traffickers have been arrested since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, according to an Aug. 18 White House statement.

Trump has backed law enforcement agencies and empowered the Federal Bureau of Investigation to "hunt predators instead of political targets," the White House said.

In its recent statement, ICE said that one of the arrested individuals, Bryan Dady, 48, a U.S. citizen, has been listed in Nebraska's sex offender registry for a 2023 conviction for enticing a 9-year-old girl. The person was also arrested in January this year on new charges alleging the grooming and enticement of a 13-year-old.

Another individual, Jocsan Aparicio Santos, 39, a Mexican citizen with lawful permanent residency in the United States, is currently on a sex offender registry for a 2010 conviction linked to assaulting a 15-year-old girl.

A third individual, Logan Trigg, 29, an American citizen, is also on a sex offender registry for a conviction related to sexually assaulting a 13-year-old girl.

The fourth person, Law Eh, 39, a naturalized American from Burma, also known as Myanmar, was charged with possessing files containing child sexual abuse material, while the fifth, Tillian Hutton, 25, another U.S. citizen, is facing charges of sex trafficking children.

ICE Homeland Security Investigations logo. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

All five suspects intended to engage in sexual acts with children, according to ICE.

"These cases are not hypothetical; they show a real demand for the sexual exploitation of children in our community," HSI Kansas City Special Agent in Charge Rick Sabatini said in the statement.

"They show why law enforcement must continue to identify and disrupt offenders before they have the opportunity to harm a child."

According to ICE, the HSI Omaha Metro Juvenile Sex Trafficking Task Force has obtained 21 federal convictions for sex trafficking children since 2021.

The Epoch Times reached out to the public attorneys representing the charged individuals but did not receive any response by publication time.

Child Trafficking, Exploitation

According to data from the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children, it received more than 113,500 reports of potential child sex trafficking last year, a 323 percent increase from 2024.

A child can be trafficked by family members, strangers, and gangs. In some cases, exploitation of children may not involve any trafficking. Instead, the children may be offered food, money, or shelter in exchange for sexual engagement.

Some of the risk factors of child trafficking include intergenerational sexual abuse, low self-esteem, substance abuse, gang activity, and developmental or physical disabilities, the center said.

Legislative actions have been taken to address the issue of child exploitation. On June 10, Trump signed the Secure America Act into law, which contained a provision to combat child exploitation.

The provision provided the Department of Homeland Security with $108.5 million to hire 200 new child exploitation investigators and analysts, according to a June 9 statement from the office of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who introduced the provision.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) in Washington on Sept. 21, 2021. Ken Cedeno/Getty Images

Before the legislation was in place, Homeland Security employed seven full-time specialists to identify child exploitation victims, the statement said.

"That's two hundred new law enforcement officers to find and rescue kids trafficked by predators and a new initiative to coordinate local, state, and federal enforcement," Hawley said in the statement. "This is the biggest surge against online child exploitation ever by the federal government. It's time to rescue these kids."

Members of the U.S. Marshals’ Missing Child Unit during "Operation Never Forgotten 2021" in Atlanta, Georgia. Courtesy of Shane T. McCoy/U.S. Marshals

In an unrelated operation, the U.S. Marshals Service said on Aug. 10 that 48 missing children from Massachusetts were rescued during a multi-agency operation tied to the FIFA World Cup.

The agency said the rescued children were between 12 and 17 years old. Several of them were found outside state borders after investigators tracked leads across the country and to multiple states. The children have since been reunited with their families or referred to child welfare and victim services, the service said.

In another major operation conducted in April, Operation Iron Pursuit, the FBI targeted alleged child exploitation predators across the United States. The effort led to the rescue of more than 200 child victims and the arrests of more than 350 individuals, the FBI said in a May 15 statement.

An earlier effort, the two-week Operation Relentless Justice conducted in December, resulted in 205 child victims being located and 293 alleged offenders being arrested.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 15:45

Saylor's Strategy Treasury Back To Breakeven As Crypto Rips, StanChart Says $100k Bitcoin Year-End Call May Be 'Too Low'

Markets are reminding investors that volatility has two sides in digital assets.

As Standard Chartered's crypto guru, Geoffrey Kendrick, begins his latest note, we’ve been used to (earlier in 2026) prices falling sharply.

Now we are starting to see (only starting) what happens when prices rise sharply.

So far this week, Kendrick notes that we have mostly seen liquidation of short positions, as chart (source: Coinglass).

In fact if I look at the full history on Coinglass, this is the largest liquidation of BTC shorts ever (data back to June 2021)...

The good thing is that for long term investors BTC is a Giffin good (people want to buy more when prices go up).

As a result, ETF inflows have begun too... A little bounce, and the crowd rushes in:

Bitcoin biggest ETF inflows since May...

Ether biggest ETF inflows since January...

But, if we zoom out on ETFs, Kendrick says this pick up is small/just getting started.

At roughly USD1.5bn in inflows so far this week, this is good.

History shows that at some stage we will get a daily inflow of more than USD1bn (perhaps today).

The next point to note is that because crypto has lagged AI all year, open interest is very low.

As prices rise, interest in the asset class will rise too.

All of which leads to Kendrick's big line.

In a Feb. 12 report, Kendrick cut Standard Chartered’s year-end Bitcoin target to $100,000 from $150,000 and its Ether target to $4,000 from $7,500. At the time, he expected Bitcoin to fall to around $50,000 and Ether to $1,400 before recovering during the rest of the year.

Today, he write: “For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low."

He is not alone.

As CoinTelegraph reports, other industry watchers have also pointed to signs that the bear market may be nearing an end.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said Bitcoin may bottom in October, while 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said an August close above $63,000 could confirm a bear-market bottom.

New BTC buy wall sits below $68,000

CoinTelegraph goes on to note that amid misgivings over the durability of Bitcoin’s volatile upside move, analysis from onchain analytics platform Glassnode revealed a new safety net forming below $70,000.

Some 3.44 million BTC now have an onchain cost basis, also known as realized price, between $58,000 and $67,000. Of this, 2.23 million BTC - equal to around 11% of the total supply - was added over the past 11 weeks.

“It’s the densest cost-basis cluster below spot — a key potential support zone on any retracement,” Glassnode cofounder Rafael Schultze-Kraft commented on X.

Bitcoin UTXO realized price distribution data. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft on X.com

BTC/USD broke through several key resistance levels this week, including its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $68,967, a key target to reclaim to end the long-term BTC price downtrend.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's 20% surge in the last three days saw it reclaim a key level for Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury company.

Data from monitoring resource BitcoinTreasuries puts the cost basis for Strategy’s holdings of 840,447 BTC at $75,385, currently with a year-to-date gain of approximately $450 million.

As Cointelegraph reported, between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9, Strategy opted to sell a small portion of its treasury worth 1,690 BTC to repurchase 1.15 million shares of its STRC preferred stock for $108.6 million. The move represented the company’s fourth Bitcoin sale of 2026.

Concerns over the long-term viability of the company’s Bitcoin investment thesis accompanied the sales, something that the subsequent BTC price run-up should help alleviate, independent crypto analyst William Clemente suggested.

“Not only should Saylor/Strategy fears have been abated for a while once he showed that he was willing to sell BTC to rebuy STRC, but now after this price impulse they are even more over-collateralized by their BTC holdings,” he wrote on X, referring to former CEO Michael Saylor.

In an interview with Fox News earlier in August, current CEO Phong Le stated that Strategy would return to buying Bitcoin before the end of the year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 14:45

Biden Adviser Warned Fauci, CDC Director Cloth Masks Didn't Work Well: Text

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A doctor who advised President Joe Biden on COVID-19 warned Dr. Anthony Fauci and other top Biden administration officials in a newly disclosed text message that wearing cloth masks provided “very limited protection.”

Dr. Michael Osterholm, who was part of Biden’s COVID-19 transition advisory team, told Fauci and other officials, including the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the time, in August 2021, that the government needed to encourage the wearing of N-95 masks, rather than masking in general.

“Note the very limited protection from face cloth coverings,” Osterholm said in the text. He said that he supported masking, “but we must be promoting the use of N-95s, even if not fit tested.”

The CDC recommended masking in 2020 after the COVID-19 pandemic started, prompting mask mandates in schools and other places. The agency promoted cloth masks, in addition to better quality face coverings, citing research it published in its quasi-journal.

Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, leading up to the 2021 text said publicly that cloth masks provided limited benefits and that he favored N-95s.

After Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis threatened to withhold funds from schools that forced masking on children, a reporter during a White House press briefing on Aug. 6, 2021, referenced Osterholm’s comments.

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary at the time, noted that Osterholm was no longer a government adviser. She said the Biden administration was relying on medical experts in the federal government for masking. The issue with DeSantis, she added, was that the governor was “preventing schools and teachers and others from protecting themselves and the students in their classroom.”

Osterholm reacted by composing a message to Fauci, then-CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, and several others.

“I’m sending this via text messaging to avoid any FOIA issues,” he wrote on Aug. 8, 2021, referring to the Freedom of Information Act.

A former Fauci adviser just pleaded guilty to the federal crime of defrauding the government by destroying and conspiring to destroy federal records subject to the act, which lets people request government records.

Osterholm, in his message, pointed to a fact sheet from the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists that said with cloth masks, people had little protection against COVID-19.

He told the administration officials that “none of the studies that CDC uses to support its statement as to the significant protection of face cloth coverings stand up to scientific scrutiny” and urged them to “strongly promote” N-95s to the public.

“I am certain one day that one of the take-away findings of this pandemic was the constant [government] emphasis on masking while at the same time providing minimal guidance to the public what effective masking means,” he said.

The message was obtained by The Epoch Times from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who acquired it from the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency. The record was produced in response to Grassley’s requests for documents related to the origins of COVID-19, a spokeswoman said.

Osterholm, Walensky, and Fauci did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Walensky through 2022 advised schools to keep mask mandates in place. Many states and districts throughout that year rolled back masking requirements. The CDC says on its website now that wearing a mask “offers you an extra layer of protection from respiratory illness” and that “cloth masks generally offer lower levels of protection to wearers.”

Ian Miller, author of “Unmasked: The Global Failure of COVID Mask Mandates,” wrote on X that the newly disclosed message showed that top experts “knew that cloth masks didn’t work and were already failing to stop or even slow transmission and they kept demanding more mask mandates and forced school and toddler masking anyway.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 14:05

FERC Approves SPP "Topology Optimization" Plan For Cutting Grid Congestion

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Wednesday approved the Southwest Power Pool’s proposal for using “topology optimization” to reduce grid congestion and its related costs.

Traditionally, grid operators respond to grid congestion by redispatching power plants, which can lead to higher production and congestion costs, SPP said in its May 21 proposal to FERC.

However, with grid-enhancing technologies, grid operators can use topology reconfiguration to change power flows as a less expensive way to handle congestion, according to SPP, which runs the grid in all or part of 17 states from north Texas to North Dakota.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Aug. 19, 2026, approved the Southwest Power Pool’s proposal for using “topology optimization” to reduce grid congestion, which could cut down on the amount of wind generation the grid operator curtails. Getty Images

Under SPP’s plan, market participants will be able to submit proposals for reconfigurations due to power plant outages or grid constraints, or the grid operator itself may offer a reconfiguration, according to SPP’s application at FERC.

SPP will analyze the potential reconfigurations to determine if the wholesale market as a whole will benefit from the reconfiguration, the grid operator said. SPP will also assess the reconfiguration’s effect on grid reliability before approving a change.

A study conducted by NewGrid, SPP and the Brattle Group found that historical system operating limit violations could be eliminated for 75% of the constraints that were analyzed, with potential congestion cost savings of $18 million to $44 million a year, the grid operator said.

In its application, SPP pointed to the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s success with economic topology reconfiguration, which MISO started using in 2024. So far this year, MISO has saved $95 million through economic reconfigurations, according to an Aug. 18 staff presentation to the grid operator’s Reliability Subcommittee.

SPP’s plan was developed through its stakeholder process and supported at FERC by Advanced Energy United, the Working for Advanced Transmission Technologies Coalition, and a joint filing by Evergy, Enel North America and EDF Power Solutions.

SPP’s congestion costs averaged $1.6 billion a year over the last three years, Evergy, Enel and EDF noted, citing the grid operator’s market monitor’s most recent state of the market report.

Also, SPP averaged 1,382 MW of curtailed wind and solar resources throughout 2025, “representing cost increases for consumers and creating reliability risk due to potential generation shortfalls,” the companies said.

“Reconfigurations reliably reroute electric flow around congestion by opening or closing circuit breakers, and has afforded millions of dollars in congestion savings across MISO and SPP,” they said, adding that SPP already uses topology reconfigurations to manage reliability issues.

In separate concurring statements, FERC commissioners Judy Chang and David Rosner urged other grid operators to adopt topology optimization as a means for better managing power flows, including during extreme weather conditions.

“It is an example of the type of advanced transmission technologies that can readily help the U.S. power system quickly integrate more load and generation while reducing costs to all consumers,” Chang said.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is set to implement a topology optimization mechanism early next year, SPP noted.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/21/2026 - 13:25