Zero Hedge

Historic Women's College Gives Honorary Degree To Rachel Levine (A Man)

Historic Women's College Gives Honorary Degree To Rachel Levine (A Man)

It is an interesting kind of horror that modern academia, an environment where objective facts should be most revered, has instead become an environment where objective facts are most reviled.  The complete denial of biological reality within the western academic community is an enduring source of social disruption.  Their continued promotion of gender fluid theory, based on zero concrete scientific evidence, is stealing opportunities from real women and turning western education into an embarrassing mockery.

The Trump Administration's efforts to reverse the cancerous growth of wokeness in public institutions is making a difference, but there are still many areas of American life that will remain infected for years to come.

The latest example is the recent announcement that Dr. Rachel Levine (formerly Richard Levine), a man pretending to be a woman, is  being awarded an honorary degree by Smith College in Massachusetts.  Keep in mind, Smith College is a historic private women's college. 

Levine has also been given the honor of addressing graduates in a commencement speech with "words of wisdom" for women entering the professional world.  Rachel Levine served as the "first trans Secretary for Health" for the US Department of Health and Human Services under the Biden Administration.  Levine exploited the position to push trans propaganda on the American public.  He also widely advocated for the gender transitioning of children.  

Chartered in 1871 by Sophia Smith and opened in 1875, Smith is a member of the historic Seven Sisters colleges, a group of women's colleges in the Northeastern United States.  It should be noted that Smith College has received extensive federal funding, which is something the Trump Administration might want to look into.

The school's decision to give an honorary degree to a man has led to some backlash, with women protesters speaking out on the hypocrisy.  The issue of men going trans and invading women's spaces has divided the feminist movement, with woke extremists on one side and "TERFs" (trans-exclusionary radical feminists) on the other side.  The "TERF" label is meant to be a pejorative insult to those women that refuse to accept trans women (men) as legitimate women.

The overarching problem with the trans movement is that it demands the normalization and even celebration of mental illness under protected group status.  On the totem pole of social justice, trans people are at the top, enjoying a venerated position even above black women and gays.  The level of hand holding and social coddling of transgenders hit almost worshipful heights during the Biden Administration's woke blitz.  It was a primary factor in the eventual fall of the Democratic Party.   

Virtue signaling among the academic elite suggests that progressives have still not learned their lesson when it comes to biological reality and the US has a ways to go before the trans issue is settled. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 19:40

Marx's Economic Forecasts: Over 150 Years Of Failure

Marx's Economic Forecasts: Over 150 Years Of Failure

Authored by Richard Fulmer via The Mises Institute,

From atop the flawed foundation of the Labor Theory of Value, Karl Marx made a series of predictions about capitalism that time has proven incorrect. Among these are the immiseration of the masses due to capital accumulation, chronic overproduction, capitalist-driven imperialism, and the inevitable rise of monopolies.

Immiseration

Even during Marx’s lifetime, capitalism was already improving the material conditions of workers and raising living standards. The Industrial Revolution, along with advancements in technology and productivity, enabled even low-skilled workers to achieve a standard of living once unimaginable to even the wealthiest.

In fact, capitalism has delivered many of the promises socialism once made. Marx envisioned a future where the working class would achieve prosperity, leisure, and cultural development—goals largely realized under capitalist systems. Today, workers enjoy higher real wages, shorter workweeks, better working conditions, and greater access to healthcare and education than at any time in history. Innovations once considered luxuries—such as indoor plumbing, refrigeration, and instant global communication—are now standard for much of the world’s population.

Capital Equipment

Marx believed that new technology:

  • Eliminated jobs and forced workers into lower-wage positions. He theorized that automation would create a permanent “industrial reserve army” of unemployed workers, driving wages down.

  • Reduced workers to mere machine operators. He argued that specialization and mechanization would strip workers of their skills and bargaining power.

  • Extracted more work in less time. He feared that capitalists would use technology to increase profits by lengthening shifts, reducing breaks, and intensifying production speeds.

Instead, technology has increased workers’ productivity, making them more valuable to employers, who, in turn, offer higher wages to attract and retain them. While some jobs have been eliminated, new industries and occupations have emerged, often requiring higher skill levels. Factory workers today perform fewer menial tasks and more complex functions, such as CNC (computer numerical control) machine programming, maintenance, and oversight of automated systems.

Rather than longer workdays, the average time on the job has significantly declined. In Marx’s time, factory workers commonly labored 60-80 hours per week. Today, most industrialized nations have 35-40-hour workweeks, and benefits like paid time off, sick leave, and retirement plans are widespread. Moreover, automation has largely eliminated the most dangerous and physically punishing tasks.

Marx saw economic progress as a zero-sum game, where capitalists’ gains necessarily meant workers’ losses. Instead, technological advancements have expanded economic output, creating new industries, higher wages, and improved working conditions.

Overproduction

Marx claimed that capitalist employers would suppress wages to the point that workers couldn’t afford to buy the goods they produced, leading to unsold inventory and economic collapse. But workers are never expected to buy everything they produce in any economic system.

Consider a cobbler in medieval Europe who made 30 pairs of shoes per month. He couldn’t possibly purchase all of them—he had to sell them to buy food, clothing, and materials for more shoes. But the shoe market didn’t collapse because demand wasn’t limited to cobblers—other people needed shoes too.

Similarly, in modern economies, businesses don’t rely solely on their employees as customers; they sell to a broad market that includes domestic and international consumers. Capitalism has consistently overcome supply-demand imbalances through pricing mechanisms, market expansion, and innovation.

Imperialism

Marx believed capitalists profited by extracting “surplus value” from workers—paying them less than the value of their production. He argued that as automation and competition reduced profit margins, capitalists would exploit workers by cutting wages or increasing working hours, and seek new sources of cheap labor, ultimately resorting to conquest to sustain profits.

This prediction failed on multiple fronts. First, workers’ ability to switch jobs, negotiate higher wages, or start businesses prevents employers from driving wages to subsistence levels, though the same cannot be said for Marxist-Leninist societies in which the state is the only employer.

Second, trade—not conquest—has proven to be the more effective path to economic expansion. As Adam Smith noted in The Wealth of Nations, war and colonization are more costly and less productive and profitable than is voluntary exchange. The reason why war and imperialism correlates with capitalism is because the state—allied with crony capitalists—expands off of the wealth from capitalism.

Finally, capitalism fosters innovation, creating new markets and industries. Economic growth has come not from territorial expansion but from developing new goods, services, and business models that increase wealth across society.

Monopoly

Marx predicted that competition would inevitably drive smaller firms out of business, leaving only a handful of monopolies powerful enough to suppress wages, control prices, and stifle innovation.

While monopolies do arise, they are typically short-lived in competitive markets. Whenever an entrepreneur introduces a new product or service, he may temporarily enjoy a dominant market position, but competitors soon emerge if the government does not prevent market entry. In fact, this situation does not technically describe a monopoly since monopolies involve legal privileging of politically-connected firms by the state.

Furthermore, as companies grow too large, they often face diseconomies of scale—inefficiencies that increase costs and reduce agility. Bureaucracy, slow decision-making, and organizational complexity often weaken large firms, opening opportunities for smaller, more innovative competitors.

Ultimately, government intervention, rather than free markets, has been the primary enabler of enduring monopolies. Regulations, subsidies, and licensing requirements frequently serve to protect established firms from competition.

Conclusion

Karl Marx’s predictions about capitalism have consistently failed. Instead of immiseration, capitalism has increased living standards. Instead of job destruction, technology has created new industries and opportunities. Instead of economic collapse due to overproduction, global trade has flourished. Instead of conquest, capitalism has fostered economic expansion through voluntary exchange. And instead of monopolistic stagnation, competition and innovation continue to drive economic progress, despite the intervention of political states.

Marx’s economic forecasts were not just incorrect but fundamentally flawed. Capitalism, despite its imperfections, has outperformed Marx’s vision by delivering prosperity on an unprecedented scale.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 19:15

House Republicans Press Harvard For Transparency Over Alleged Ties To Chinese Military

House Republicans Press Harvard For Transparency Over Alleged Ties To Chinese Military

Woke elites running Harvard University into the ground faced fresh controversy on Monday morning as House Republicans launched a formal inquiry into the school's reported ties with foreign adversaries, citing serious national security and ethical concerns.

The House Select Committee on China, joined by the House Committee on Education and Workforce and Chairwoman of House Republican Leadership Elise Stefanik, sent a letter to Harvard demanding transparency and accountability regarding the university's partnerships with foreign adversaries and entities involved in human rights abuses. 

The investigation focuses on the university's reported partnerships with Chinese military-linked institutions, sanctioned entities, and researchers tied to the Iranian regime.

House Republicans are demanding internal documents and testimony, adding to a growing list of challenges plaguing the university, including recent controversies over campus antisemitism and donor backlash.

Addressed to Harvard President Alan Garber, the letter sent by Education and Workforce Committee Chairman Tim Walberg (R-MI), Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI), and House Republican Leadership Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) outlined Harvard's troubling partnerships and activities that raise alarm bells about national security and ethical concerns: 

  • Harvard's repeated training of members of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC)—a U.S.-sanctioned paramilitary group that plays a central role in the Chinese Communist Party's genocide of Uyghur Muslims

  • Research partnerships funded by the Department of Defense with Chinese military-linked universities, including Tsinghua, Zhejiang, and Huazhong Universities

  • Collaborations with Iranian-government-funded researchers, including projects financed by the Iranian National Science Foundation

  • Organ transplantation research involving PRC-based collaborators, amid mounting evidence of the CCP's forced organ harvesting practices

Moolenaar stated, "Harvard trained members of a sanctioned Chinese paramilitary group responsible for genocide, and its researchers partnered with Chinese military universities on DoD-funded research and worked with researchers funded by the Iranian regime," adding, "These are not isolated incidents—they represent a disturbing pattern that puts U.S. national security at risk. The Select Committee's investigation will deliver answers, expose the truth, and hold Harvard accountable to the American people."

Chairman Walberg stated, "No American university or college should be assisting the CCP in expanding its influence, oppressing American citizens, or undermining U.S. national security," adding, "Unfortunately, we have found several instances in which Harvard University aided and even collaborated with the CCP – including helping Chinese researchers on military projects funded by the Iranian government. This is unacceptable and President Garber needs to provide answers to Congress for this colossal failure."

And Chairwoman Stefanik stated, "Harvard University must be held accountable. I demand full transparency and immediate cooperation with the Select Committee's investigation. We must ensure that no American institution enables the CCP's military modernization or the Iranian regime's technological ambitions — especially under the guise of academic exchange." 

The news of the House Republican investigation into Harvard's questionable foreign ties follows widespread layoffs reported last week following the U.S. government's termination notices for federally funded research projects. 

So far, the Trump administration has canceled approximately $2.7 billion in grants, with another nearly $1 billion in funding for Harvard's research partners at risk.

President Garber announced he would soon take a 25% pay cut after losing federal funding. He refused the Trump administration's simple request to comply with concerns over DEI and antisemitism.

"More than 80 faculty members — from several schools and academic units — have pledged to donate 10 percent of their salaries for up to a year to support the University if it continues to resist the Trump administration," The Harvard Crimson recently reported.

So brave.

Harvard alumnus Bill Ackman commented last week about the school's death spiral.

We suspect House Republicans won't stop with Harvard. These investigations are likely to expand to other Ivy League schools that have aggressively pushed toxic Marxist DEI agendas—initiatives that, in some cases, may have been influenced by foreign adversaries to undermine the nation. Some of these elite schools foster disdain for America, which is deeply troubling. This trend must be confronted and reversed.

 

*   *    * 

Full Letter to Harvard U. from House Republicans... Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 18:50

Don't Take The Black Pill

Don't Take The Black Pill

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

What kinds of attitudes do you bring to the prospect of political and social change? The answer matters more than we think. Those with hope and passion for improvement tend to win the day, especially if the other side merely wallows in grievance and despair.

This is true for writers and intellectuals too. We are all trying to find our way through in a thicket of confusion in what are truly treacherous times. In the backdrop stands a complex emotional template that can profoundly affect how we see the world and its future.

G.K. Chesterton once wrote that he rejects both optimism and pessimism, preferring to look at reality itself, even in the darkest of times, with hope and not despair. It is equally important to look at the brightest times with trepidation that something might, alas, be broken underneath the surface and therefore they won’t last.

Those words have stuck with me. A naive optimism is as pointless as the fatalism of a perpetually downcast pessimism that sees every sign of improvement as a delusion.

The times call on all of us to adopt a more Chestertonian attitude toward the world around us, our expectations for the future, and our own role in it. The bias of eschatological certainty can blind in both directions, either by chaining us to dread of a doomed future or by luring us into complacency with visions of an eminently dawning utopia.

Many people are traumatized from the last five years. We’ve discovered that many of the conspiracy theories are true. There were memes passed around over these years that the wackiest theories last month seem to come true this month.

Elon Musk even confirmed it. When he took over Twitter and got a first-hand look at what was being censored and why, he told interviewers that every conspiracy theory is true and then some. His comment underscores the feeling of betrayal sensed by everyone in public and private life today.

When you go through times like this, the oldest spiritual battles confront all of us. We can join in the rot while throwing away all standards of decency and honesty. The presumption here is that the system is corrupt so we might as well join in, like rioters when the fires start to burn.

Another response is to throw yourself into being part of the solution in some way at some level. This could be in your own household or it could be in national politics, plus everything in between.

What increasingly concerns me is a different breed that has come to populate the dissident movement, especially these days and in light of all we’ve been through. These are people who have done vast reading and discovered that the problems around us are extremely deep, tracing to classified worlds of darkness and occult influences. They extend this analysis far back in time, even tracing this to the ancient world.

There is nothing wrong with that outlook as such except that it does feed into a conviction that there is no escape under any conditions. Rather than join in or fly into a hopeful opposition with constructive efforts to change, they construct an ideology of despair. This says that there is nothing to be done because the bad guys rule all things.

There is no chance for progress, says this view, and anything that looks hopeful is nothing but a sham. All seeming good news or admissions of wrongdoing are nothing but “limited hangouts,” probably pushed by “controlled opposition,” making concessions to distract us from the dark truths of our entrenched and depraved destiny.

In popular parlance, and tracing to the model presented in the movie “The Matrix,” these are people who take the Black Pill. This is different from the Blue Pill, which is what you take to go along to get along, or the Red Pill, which is what you take to be part of the reality-based solution. The Black Pill is what you take to wallow in despair and drag everyone around down with you.

I suspect you know someone who has taken the Black Pill. I have variously encountered them for years. Frustrated with such people, the pen name Midwestern Doctor recently wrote that the Black Pill leads people to say: “it’s futile to ever make things better so if you try to, you’re just getting scammed,” “all the things being proposed are actually distractions to keep us from fixing the real problem,” and “the person proposing this terrible proposal is actually an enemy trying to sabotage the movement.”

The Black Pill is seductive because it “It gives you a way to feel in control of your environment (by declaring it’s hopeless to do anything) and superior to others (by knowing a secret truth they don’t know).” Yes, it is easily rendered as a form of Gnosticism, a theory that only a few know the fullness of the esoteric truth while all exoteric knowledge is mere veneer.

The Black Pill is closely related to the problem of purity seeking. No change in social policy, law, or legislation will ever be enough, of course. For that reason, every hint of progress, even vast progress, is easily presented as a trick designed to hide more fundamental corruption. Nothing is ever good enough, and any attempt to make something better is itself part of the problem because it deceives people into thinking there will ever be a way out of the morass.

It’s inevitable that Black-Pilled purists will be meanest to those they are the closest to. This is because those are the people who will listen to them, and the social set among which they can make a difference. For this reason, they can be toxic to any attempt at community organizing, social cohesion, or basic demands of collegiality. When people figure out the game and block them or stop inviting them, they always have a ready excuse: the leadership of the group is clearly compromised and part of the enemy.

This only scratches the surface of the problems of Black-Pilled purists. Because they rule out the possibility of making a difference for good, they target those who try and put down every effort to improve the world. De facto, they always end up saying that the existing status quo, however bad it is, is actually better than the reformed world given to us by people who are compromised and playing ball with the elites. Perversely, then, the purists in every movement eventually become useful servants of the very elites they claim to oppose.

If you follow what I’ve written above, you can understand why some small minority of people that who worked to bring the Trump administration to power, or at least contributed to raising grave doubts about alternatives, are now putting down every effort at reform, even tangible victories.

The MAGA and MAHA movement has Black-Pilled purists in its ranks who will never be satisfied until condition X is met. Condition X could be an end to all hormones in livestock, a ban on all GMOs, an end to all foreign aid, a withdrawal and ban of mRNA shots or all vaccines, stopping all trade with China, or whatever other condition you name, which they always deem the top priority.

Nothing less will do. When that condition is met, there will always be more, because the point is not actually betterment but perpetual alienation from the idea of betterment itself.

As you can see, such people do not work and play well with others, make difficult colleagues, and end up as destructive forces within any attempted community of activists or intellectuals. Such people thrive on factionalism in every smaller unit of interest, all with the hope of being the leader of a community of their own creation, even if it is a community of one.

Such people invariably drive people off from any community, displacing productive and hopeful people with more followers of their dark worldview. Sadly, they are rarely blocked before they cause damage because they specialize in playing off the tolerance of others and the fear of leadership in being called censors or hidden assets of the bad guys.

The biggest problem with the Black Pill is spiritual. It is not possible to wallow constantly in despair and keep it from invading every nook and cranny of the brain, heart, and soul. It becomes an addiction to the point that such people will never be satisfied without the dopamine rush that comes with trashing everything and everybody no matter what.

Don’t take the Black Pill. Again, the attitude of Chesterton is the right one: Even in the darkest of times, hope is better than despair. A naive optimism is as unproductive as a perpetually downcast and paralyzing pessimism that sees every sign of improvement as a delusion.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 18:25

Vance Abruptly Cancels Israel Visit As IDF Expands Gaza Operations

Vance Abruptly Cancels Israel Visit As IDF Expands Gaza Operations

More friction between Israel and the United States has come to light Monday as Vice President JD Vance has canceled a planned official trip to Israel due to the expansion of Israel's military operation in Gaza, according to a senior US official cited in Axios.

The report emphasizes that "The US official said Vance made the decision because he didn't want his trip to suggest the Trump administration endorsed the Israeli decision to launch a massive operation at a time when the U.S. is pushing for a ceasefire and hostage deal."

VP Vance in Rome. AFP/Getty Images

Still, Vance sought to downplay this as purely a political pressure move or strong signaling to Israel by saying it comes down to "logistical" issues.

"Logistically, it was just a little bit too hard on basic things like, who the hell is going to take care of our kids if we take another couple of days overseas?" he said Monday in response to a question about the trip. "I’m sure we’ll visit Israel sometime in the future, but not today," Vance added. The question of childcare or babysitting is certainly an unexpected reason or explanation, or dubious.

Starting Friday the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced an expanded mobilization of troops for operation 'Gideon's Chariots'. Some two million Palestinians are expected to be forced into a "humanitarian zone" while most of the enclave is destroyed and flattened.

The policy somewhat contradicts Trump's main messaging during last week's Gulf tour, wherein he emphasized peace through deal-making, and not 'chaos' in the war-torn Middle East. 

According to a timeline of the Vance trip cancellation issued by Axios:

  • Additional discussions took place on Sunday between U.S. and Israeli officials to prepare for Vance's visit. Reports soon popped up in the Israeli press that Vance might arrive on Tuesday.
  • Several hours later, a White House official denied the reports in a statement to reporters traveling with the VP. "While the Secret Service has engaged in contingency planning for the addition of several potential countries, no additional visits were at any point decided upon, and logistical constraints have precluded an extension of his travel beyond Rome. He will return to Washington on Monday."

In the White House press briefing room Monday morning, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to a question by ZeroHedge by saying President Trump "has made it very clear he wants to see this conflict in the region end."

"The president is moving as quickly as he possibly can and working overtime to end these conflicts in both Israel and Gaza and also the Russia-Ukraine war," Leavitt added. "The president made it very clear to Hamas that he wanted to see all hostages released."

Several reports earlier this month pointed to severely strained ties between Trump and Netanyahu; however, the US president has since sought to downplay this. Yet Vance abruptly canceling his Israel trip certainly points to trouble between Washington and Tel Aviv.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 18:00

Top FDA Official Discloses She Never Received COVID-19 Vaccine

Top FDA Official Discloses She Never Received COVID-19 Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A top Food and Drug Administration (FDA) official said on May 15 that she never took a COVID-19 vaccine due to concerns about biodistribution.

Dr. Sara Brenner, the FDA’s principal deputy commissioner, said during an event in Washington that she did not receive any of the COVID-19 vaccines.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Brenner said that she was pregnant during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It was unknown at the time what the biodistribution patterns of those products were, and in my case, in particular, what the excretion would be in breast milk,” Brenner said. “That was my primary concern, and that exposure I was very concerned about.”

When asked whether the information that has emerged since then validates her choice, Brenner, who said she was not speaking on behalf of the FDA, said she thinks it does.

Researchers reported in a 2022 paper that messenger ribonucleic acid, which is in the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 shots, was detected in human breast milk. Another paper, in 2023, detailed similar findings.

Pfizer and Moderna did not return requests for comment.

Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA’s commissioner, has been critical of COVID-19 vaccine boosters. He has indicated that he received a primary series of one of the vaccines.

About 81 percent of the U.S. population received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as of the spring of 2023, according to federal data.

Brenner was speaking at an event held by a new group that is seeking to help influence officials such as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and their promotion of an agenda dubbed Make America Healthy Again (MAHA). The group is called the MAHA Institute.

The comments came on the same day a health official confirmed to The Epoch Times that officials will stop recommending routine COVID-19 vaccination for youth and pregnant women. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which, like the FDA, is part of the Department of Health and Human Services, currently recommends that people aged 6 months and older receive at least one dose of the currently available vaccines.

Brenner, who has trained as a preventative medicine doctor and has expertise in nanotechnology, has been with the FDA since the first Trump administration. She was the agency’s chief medical officer for diagnostics during the pandemic and was detailed to support White House efforts to respond to COVID-19 while Joe Biden was president.

Brenner recalled conducting toxicology research while in school, including examining biodistribution. She said that an important part of medicine is looking at the unintended effects, also known as adverse events or side effects. She also said she knew that the lipid nanoparticles used to deliver mRNA in the COVID-19 vaccines could result in unintended effects.

Brenner referred to previous years in the government as a dark time, but described the present day as a new dawn, with fresh leaders such as Kennedy in place.

“We’re moving very quickly to make it such that there will be more transparency, more available data and information, so that people ... can see and evaluate for themselves sort of what the truths are and what’s known and unknown,” she said. “And I'll go ahead and put it that way, because one of the biggest misses, I think, in the previous several years is that there was no acknowledgement of what was unknown, right? There was there were only statements and assertions that were really more like beliefs or things that were desired to be true than they were true knowns.”

Brenner said that a key part of regaining trust from the public is being honest and transparent. She also said she believes that the vast majority of government workers are good people who want to serve their country and try to do their best, and that it will take a long time to figure out how events unfolded during the pandemic.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 17:40

A Third Of Russell 3000 Energy Companies Trade Below Book Value

A Third Of Russell 3000 Energy Companies Trade Below Book Value

Looking at Berkshire's mindblowing $350 billion cash stash...

... one would think that there is nothing in the market that a value investor would find attractive. One would be wrong: almost half of all mid- and small-cap oil and gas stocks in the US are now trading below their book values. That’s the highest level since the pandemic. And according to Bloomberg, it’s a gift for value investors worshiping the gospel of Warren Buffett and his mentor Ben Graham, who referred to these kinds of opportunities as “cigar butts.”

“We’re going to take advantage of a lot of suckers,” said Cole Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management, who has been buying additional oil and gas stocks that are trading well below book.

Energy has been the second-worst performing sector in the S&P 500 in Q2, losing roughly 10% since President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, as oil prices tumble due to fears of global trade wars sparking economic slowdowns and OPEC member countries boosting production to increase supply. Two weeks ago, West Texas Intermediate crude fell to around $55 a barrel, a level it touched in April and before that February 2021. It has rebounded only modestly since then and remains down about 15% for the year.

Today, shares of oil and gas companies such as Murphy Oil, Crescent Energy and Noble Corp., are trading for less than what the assets on their books are worth. That’s the classic definition of value investing, where the stock is priced at less than what the business would be worth if it was stripped and sold for parts. 

At this point, 33% of Russell 3000 energy stocks are trading below their book values. The figure rose as high as 40% late last week, before the US and China agreed to a 90-day trade truce, which gave a slight boost to oil prices and energy stocks. The last time this happened, it preceded off a two-year run in 2021 and 2022 when energy trounced the market and was the top-performing sector.

A similar proportion of large- and small- Canadian oil and gas stocks have also fallen into the same range, Bloomberg calcualtes. 

Smead, who is invested on both sides of the border, thinks the stocks are undervalued and poised to at least return to book value, and likely more. “I don’t need to have a rosy picture” for the energy outlook to make money trading energy stocks, Smead said.

Smead isn’t alone in buying energy names cheap. A handful of cash rich oil and gas companies have indicated they’ll repurchase their stock if it has sold off sharply. Cenovus Energy bought back C$62 million ($44 million) of its own shares in the first quarter and has nearly tripled that to C$178 million in the second quarter so far.

“The smartest capital allocation today is to repurchase shares” rather than paying down debt, Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice said on a May 6 conference call. “Buybacks are the right thing at these levels” as crude prices have slipped, Stice said, adding that he expects the Texas-based oil producer to increase its stock repurchase program.

Not everyone will be able to take advantage of their cheaper stock price as they don’t have the available cash. Chevron , for instance, said it will cut buybacks in the second quarter following the drop in crude. It's bigger, and higher quality peer, Exxon, however, continues to repurchase its stock with clockwork regularity as it print money quarter after quarter.

Then there is also a debate about how best to value oil and gas producers. BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeremy McCrea says book value isn’t a useful measurement for the energy sector since it can change quickly and dramatically with commodity prices. He prefers cash flow, Ebitda and reserve values, but says the stocks still are cheap based on those metrics.

“Typically, the best times to invest in the energy sector are when it feels the most uncomfortable,” McCrea said. “And it’s pretty uncomfortable right now just given this uncertainty. That’s historically some of the better times to come into the market.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 17:20

"...The Entire Profession Sold Out The Country To Act As The Democrats' Damage Control Agency..."

"...The Entire Profession Sold Out The Country To Act As The Democrats' Damage Control Agency..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Swamp Fever

“Don’t misunderstand me. I want Biden to get better and live many more years, so he can watch his family go broke from running out of influence to sell.” 

- Oilfield Rando on X

If the slithering denizens of Okefenokee-on-the-Potomac were nervous about their fates before Sunday — and I’d say they’ve been rather jumped-up since Nov. 4 — then Maria Bartiromo’s Sunday morning session with FBI top dawgs Patel and Bongino must have been a near-death experience for them. Something Roto-rooterish this way comes, officialdom must be thinking, if you can call utter hysteria “thinking.”

Washington is nervous because there have been zero leaks from the agency, a condition heretofore unknown in that haunted, pestiferous, reeking marsh. There’s plenty of the usual background noise, of course: the insectile hum, the croaking, trilling, buzzing, staccato peeps, chirps, and squeals of the squirming lesser creatures. . . the occasional roar of an ancient gator. . . the guttural cry of the night heron, the sharp yelp of some furry prey meeting its doom, the pulsating, primordial, chthonic cacophony of creatures suffering to mate in the frightful darkness. . . but that’s just the news media doing their thing.

We’ve remarked more than once here in recent weeks about the ominous silence emanating from the FBI leadership amidst all that other noise, and now you know: a mighty information dump is coming, bales of documents that Christopher Wray sat on for years will be publicly released un-redacted, spells will be broken, names will be named (with imputations of crimes committed), and abiding mysteries unraveled — like, what was the FBI actually doing around the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and much more.

Prepare for some disappointment. Alas, most non-capital federal crimes (acts short of treason and murder) have a five-year statute of limitations (18 U.S.C. § 3282), so the multitudinous felonious misdeeds of RussiaGate will go unpunished. Stzrok, McCabe, Rosenstein, Pientka, Ohr (and wife Nellie), Thibault, Baker, Atkinson, Halper, Horowitz, Lynch, Yates, et al., will skate off into the sunset, but not without lasting reputational damage. Mr. Obama’s presidential aura will surely lose a lot of its luster.

But there is plenty to keep the DOJ busy with more recent turpitudes carried out with the election of “Joe Biden,” including perhaps the 2020 election itself in the months before November, 2025, when the statute of limitations kicks in for that caper. Mainly, what looms is a reckoning over “Joe Biden’s” fake presidency and the momentous question as to who was really running the executive branch of the government, most particularly who was using the devious “auto-pen” to sign off on executive orders and perhaps even on legislation.

It is a wonder of modern times that this affront to the public trust somehow remains an abiding mystery. But it shows just how fake Jake Tapper’s new book is — Original Sin: President Biden's Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again. Jake blames the whole fiasco on “the White House” without ever stating who in that building was actually acting in “JB’s” place as shadow president. Tapper, allegedly a reporter, apparently never bothered to ask. But neither did anyone else at CNN, the other TV news networks, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Atlantic, and every other outpost of OG journalism.

Nor does Jake conclude the obvious: that his entire profession sold out the country to act as the Democratic Party’s damage control agency — rather than its traditional duty to act as a powerful check on corrupt, runaway government. Which is to say that the news media Jake represents is at least as corrupt as the government itself.

It’s for certain now, anyway, that we are going to find out exactly who was behind the fabled auto-pen, and it will probably turn out to be a cabal composed of Chiefs-of-Staff, Ron Klain and Jeffrey Zients, Dr. Jill, NSA Jake Sullivan, Deputy AG Lisa Monaco, Domestic Affairs advisor Susan Rice, and ultimately to some degree former President Obama, holed-up a few blocks away in his Kalorama mansion those four years of “Joe Biden’s” term in the oval office. Why wouldn’t Mr. Obama, now a private citizen, be called to some official forum, say a courtroom or a congressional committee, to answer questions about that? He’s not any sort of God with God-like privileges.

What we’re just beginning to see now is a furious divorce struggle between the OG news outfits and the Democratic Party, both fighting for their very lives. They are both already mortally wounded, even as they turn on each other, and liable to drop dead in the onslaught behind whatever Patel & Bongino fire at them in the weeks ahead. And even while all those RussiaGaters skate from out-of-date charges, plenty of other officials (and non-officials, like the lawfare ninjas, Eisen, Elias, and Weissmann) could go down for what went on since inauguration day, 2021.

Then there is Ed Martin, lately tossed aside as US attorney for the DC district, doing an adroit lateral arabesque into Main Justice as (simultaneously) the US Pardons Attorney, Director of the Weaponization Working Group, and Associate Deputy Attorney General. We are going to find out whether any of those preemptive pardons signed with the auto-pen in the last hours of “Joe Biden’s” presidency have legal credence. They include the pardons issued for the whole House J-6 investigation committee. House members are not immune from prosecution for crimes committed in connection with their official duties. That means you, Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, Jamie Raskin, and Bennie Thompson.

And so, also amidst all that deafening noise roaring across The Swamp, we get the sad news over the weekend that former president, now plain citizen Joe Biden, has got aggressive Stage 4 metastatic prostate cancer spreading into his very bones. Strange to relate, this is one of the very “turbo-cancers” said to be induced by the Covid-19 mRNA “vaccine” shots that “JB” exhorted Americans to take — and supposedly submitted to himself. What can you say, besides boo-hoo?

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 16:20

Why Keynesians Got Inflation And Growth Wrong

Why Keynesians Got Inflation And Growth Wrong

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Inflation is not soaring, and economic growth is solid...

The Tariff Tantrum has proven that consensus was wrong about soaring inflation and an economic slump. Why? The exaggerated perception of tariffs’ economic impact stemmed from the belief that American consumers would bear the full burden of tariffs. Why were they wrong?

The first reason was that most analyses relied on a simplistic calculation of tariffs, treating supply chains as if they only involved buyers and sellers. Supply chains are very complex, and most exporters must deal with overcapacity challenges and working capital problems. Thus, the impact of tariffs is likely to be absorbed by numerous links in the supply chain, including transport, storage, distribution, manufacturing, retailers and purchasing chains.

Furthermore, most exporting companies face a significant problem of overcapacity and working capital; if they don’t sell their products fast and effectively, their debt soars, and the losses at warehouses can lead to a chain of bankruptcies.

Ignoring that the world of exporter businesses, particularly in China, has a structural overcapacity problem and mounting financial challenges due to working capital build was one of the mistakes made by excessively pessimistic analysts. Therefore, there is no sign of inflation soaring anywhere. The Export Price Index rose only 0.1% in April and 2.0% year on year, while the Import Price Index rose a modest 0.1% in the month and 0.1% year on year. Prices dropped by 0.5% in the final demand PPI (producer price index) for April. On a year-over-year basis, headline and core April PPI declined versus previous readings.

United States retail sales rose by 0.1% in April, up 5.2 % from April 2024, and following a large 1.7% increase in March 2025. Inflation hit a four-year low in April, a month that should have reflected a massive increase due to tariffs, according to consensus estimates, while wage growth rose to a four-year high.

Inflation in April slowed to the slowest pace since 2021. Egg prices fell by 12%, and prices for bakery items, meat, and poultry also decreased. Americans are not suffering the apocalyptic inflation that interventionists predicted. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%—an annualised rate of 2.3%—and the lowest in four years. Furthermore, core CPI rose only 2.8%, showing no sign of inflationary pressures.

The first quarter’s gross domestic product was positive. Despite a 0.3% decline, the private sector increased by 1.6% annually. Government spending declined 5.1%. In the past week, JP Morgan has removed its call for a recession and the Atlanta Fed Nowcast shows a healthy 2.4% GDP growth for the second quarter, an estimate shared by Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics.

The key to understanding the lack of inflation is to look at monetary aggregates. Tariffs do not cause inflation. There are other reasons we can use to criticise tariffs, but not inflation causation. Market participants have realised that tariffs are a tool for negotiating better trade deals and facilitating the opening of markets rather than being used solely as a protectionist measure. The same reason why you need nuclear weapons to avoid a nuclear war: tariffs are required to force better trade deals.

The cause of inflation is the soaring government spending, which leads to an increase in both the money supply and money velocity. Deficit spending is down 35% between February and April 2025 compared to the same period last year. While money supply is rising, albeit at a modest pace, velocity of money is gradually declining. The public sector is slowly shrinking and the private sector is strengthening; hence, there is no real inflation risk.

The only thing that can make aggregate prices rise, consolidate, and continue is the debasement of the purchasing power of the currency due to uncontrolled government spending. Thankfully, government spending is starting to moderate.

The United States economy is stronger than it appears, and the negotiating power of importers is larger than estimated due to two factors: the previously mentioned overcapacity challenge of most exporters and the global relevance of the U.S. market. Exporters cannot substitute their U.S. sales with other markets. Even the European Union is relatively weak as a market.

In the following months, we will likely see more trade deals, and most concerns from market participants will probably vanish or at least be significantly reduced. Ultimately, the Tariff Tantrum has proven that Keynesian analysis is wrong and that successful trade deals were the goal of the administration.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 15:40

The FBI Washington Headquarters Won't Be Missed

The FBI Washington Headquarters Won't Be Missed

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Current FBI Director Kash Patel is closing down the agency’s Washington, DC, mothership office and moving at least 1,500 employees out of the DC area to regional offices.

The decision was not just Patel’s.

During the Biden Administration, it was determined that the 50-year-old Hoover building headquarters was structurally decrepit. More germanely, no prior FBI director had ever explained why nearly a third of the FBI workforce was centered in offices in Washington, far from where most of the serious crime in America occurs.

The news is welcome for reasons well beyond the safety of agents in an apparently unsafe headquarters.

It is no exaggeration to state that most of the FBI scandals of the last decade were born in the Hoover building headquarters, suggesting that the agency had long become top-heavy, politically weaponized, and deeply embedded in and compromised by the Washington apparat.

Former FBI Director, later appointed as special counsel, Robert Mueller ran a media-driven, 20-month, 40-million-dollar legal circus chasing the unicorn of “Russian collusion.” His left-wing legal team—replete with political conflicts of interest and scrubbed cell phones—was dubbed by the obsequious, giddy left-wing media as the “army,” “untouchables,” “all-stars,” “dream team,” and “hunter-killer teams.”

When called to testify about his investigation that had found no Russian-Trump collusion, Mueller implausibly denied any knowledge of the Steele dossier or FusionGPS. Yet they were arguably the very catalysts for his own special counsel appointment.

Two of his Washington FBI investigators were fired—the amorous Peter Strzok and Lisa Page—who had co-texted a deep personal antipathy toward Trump, the object of their investigations, and a desire to see him not become president, referred to as an “insurance policy.” 

Note that either the FBI or Mueller’s team also mysteriously lost the requested recorded texts and calls on the duo’s phones.

Mueller’s successor, James Comey, outdid his predecessor’s congressionally sworn amnesia. Now in the news yet again for allegedly threatening the president with an “8647” tweet, Comey, while under oath to a congressional committee, stonewalled questioning by claiming he did not remember or could not answer on some 245 separate occasions.

Somehow in 2016, Comey—suddenly acting as both an investigator and a de facto federal prosecutor, despite clear conflicts of interest—managed to interfere in the 2016 campaign by finding Hillary Clinton likely guilty of, but somehow not indictable for, a number of felonies, from unlawfully transmitting classified files to destroying subpoenaed evidence.

Comey also lied to the president that he was not a subject of his own ongoing FBI-directed investigation of Trump.

Comey hired Christopher Steele as an informant and thereby helped to birth Steele’s fabrications.

Comey, through a friend, leaked to the New York Times his own private conversations with the president, recorded on his own FBI device no less.

He set up National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and bragged about how easily the naive and ambushed Flynn foolishly spoke to his FBI investigators without an attorney.

His successor, interim director Andrew McCabe, was a kindred leaker and political partisan. 

He was fired for lying to federal investigators on four occasions, three times while under oath.

McCabe’s successor, Christopher Wray, infamously oversaw FBI agents spying on parents at school board meetings and supposedly also monitoring “radical traditionalist” Catholics.

Wray’s FBI conducted the now equally discredited Mar-a-Lago SWAT team raid on ex-President Trump’s personal residence. The performance-art operation was supposedly designed to find rumored mountains of improperly stored classified files. Despite all the leaks and fake news about troves of secret and classified dossiers, in the end, agents carted away 13,000 documents to find a mere 102 that were deemed classified—some .007 percent of what they confiscated.

In a now-infamous photo of the document trove released by the FBI, Trump’s classified papers were haphazardly strewn across the floor with nearby covers emblazoned “Secret” in red rubrics.

Agents later admitted the photos did not reflect the actual position of the documents when they had arrived, but were scattered over the floor and photographed by the FBI, along with the covers that they had brought along to the raid as photo props.

The FBI then showed far less interest in investigating Joe Biden’s three-decade-long illegal possession of classified documents, stored in at least three unsecured locations—and only revealed when the Biden White House had appointed a special counsel to investigate Trump for what Biden himself had done for far longer, with less security and with continued impunity.

Washington FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith was indicted and convicted of doctoring a FISA application document in order to deceive the federal court into granting surveillance over an innocent but framed Carter Page.

FBI chief counsel James A. Baker, likewise Washington-based, allegedly was deeply involved in trying to shop the spurious Steele dossier to the media on the eve of the 2016 election.

In general, the Washington FBI sought to warp both the 2016 and 2020 elections and might arguably have affected either outcome. Besides finding Hillary Clinton likely culpable and then improperly exonerating her, later in 2020, the FBI sat tight and silent on the Hunter Biden laptop after authenticating it as genuine.

Yet almost at the same time, kindred ex-intelligence authorities—the now notorious “51 former intelligence officials” —rounded up by former CIA interim director Mike Morrell at the prompt of then Biden aide and soon-to-be Secretary of State Antony Blinken—brazenly lied to the public that the laptop was a likely creation of Russian intelligence.

This disinformation campaign, launched by the 51 “former” intelligence agents, included some who were still on the federal payroll as contractors. Their intent was to arm Joe Biden in the upcoming October 2020 presidential debate with the lie that the incriminating laptop (again confirmed in secret by the FBI as genuine) was fabricated by the Russians. And the ruse worked perfectly in deceiving the American people on the eve of the election.

Note as well that the FBI embedded agents in social media concerns like Facebook and Twitter to partner in censoring news by deeming it “misinformation” and “disinformation.” Yet, in truth, their jobs in the so-called “Twitter Files” scandal were better defined as suppressing any news considered problematic to the then-2020 Biden campaign.

Many FBI agents later rotated over to high-paying social media companies after their collaboration, among them former FBI general counsel Baker, who was then subsequently fired by the new owner of Twitter, Elon Musk.

The list of ethical, moral, and legal misadventures at the top-heavy Washington FBI office could be easily expanded.

But suffice to say, the closure of the J. Edgar Hoover building and the dispersal of the toxic Washington-centric FB hierarchy is welcome news.

Hopefully, this historic closure will also mark the end of the most sordid and decade-long chapter in the history of a once-great agency.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 14:20

US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble Most In Over 2 Years

US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble Most In Over 2 Years

Since December's Trump-optimism-driven surge in Leading Economic Indicators (the first since last February), The Conference Board's headline index has decelerated rapidly with April data released today plunging 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop since March 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, Consumer Sentiment (cough UMich Democrats) and Stock Prices were the biggest negative contributors, while New Manufacturing orders (hard data) and Credit were the biggest positive contributors...

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged the total index level down to its lowest since February 2016...

Source: Bloomberg

“The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

“Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April. 

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. 

However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. 

The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.

Source: Bloomberg

So the economy is doomed (ish) because stocks and sentiment are down... because investors are pricing in a doomed economy...? 

Perhaps the word 'leading' in this index is misleading...

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 14:00

Goldman Raises Oil Demand Outlook

Goldman Raises Oil Demand Outlook

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • Goldman Sachs has increased its global oil demand forecast but maintained its price predictions for Brent crude and WTI for the current year, despite current trading values exceeding those projections.

  • The potential for a US-Iran nuclear deal and the progression of the tariff war are significant factors creating uncertainty in the oil market, influencing forecasts and potential price fluctuations.

  • Future oil prices could drop significantly if the tariff war worsens and OPEC Plus restores its previously cut oil supply, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their outlook for global oil demand upwards, now expecting growth of 600,000 barrels daily this year and 400,000 barrels daily in 2026.

The bank, however, maintained its oil price forecast at $60 per barrel of Brent crude and $56 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate for this year, Reuters reported, citing a new note. 

Brent crude was trading at over $65 per barrel at the time of writing, and WTI was trading at over $62.

Goldman’s analysts expect the benchmarks to fall further next year, to $56 for Brent crude and $52 for WTI. 

A big reason for the bearish outlook is the nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran that recently became a more distinct possibility than it was until now. 

Last Thursday, President Trump the two sides were really close to sealing such a deal. 

The news dealt a blow to oil prices.

Later updates, however, tamed any optimism as they revealed persistent differences between the two sides on what conditions they would accept. The U.S. side insists on Iran committing to stop any uranium enrichment activities. The Iranian side considers its uranium-enrichment activities non-negotiable.

However, the prospect of a shorter rather than longer tariff war has improved the outlook for global growth, which could offset any bearish supply effect stemming from a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by improving demand for crude, per Goldman. 

This was the basis for their upward revision of demand for the second half of the year, or, as they put it, “Incorporating lower tariffs and higher GDP.”

On the other hand, if the tariff war drags on and comes to affect global economic growth in the physical world rather than the realm of forecast, the investment bank expects Brent could drop as far as $40 per barrel in late 2026. 

For that to happen, OPEC+ must also bring back all the barrels it cut from its combined supply back in 2022, Goldman analysts noted.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 13:45

"It Went Very Well" - Trump Sees Imminent "End To The War" After Two-Hour-Call With Putin

"It Went Very Well" - Trump Sees Imminent "End To The War" After Two-Hour-Call With Putin

Update (1335ET): Confirming the optimistic readout from the Kremlin, President Trump just posted on TruthSocial stating that his call with Putin "went very well." (emphasis ours)

Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. 

I believe it went very well. 

Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. 

The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of. 

The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later. 

Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree. 

There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country. 

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately. 

I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin. 

The Vatican, as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. 

Let the process begin!

And cue the European leaders and US neocons fuming over the potential for peace.

*  *  *

Update(1300ET): Presidents Trump and Putin have ended their phone call, which lasted for more than two hours, according to RIA. This suggests some heavy lifting was done regarding peace in Ukraine, and restoring Washington-Moscow relations. Trump had reportedly phoned Zelensky just prior to speaking with Putin. It appears an overall 'positive' development, also given the emerging wire headlines:

  • PUTIN CALLED HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP USEFUL: TASS
  • PUTIN: MEMORANDUM WITH UKRAINE MAY INCLUDE TRUCE TERMS: TASS
  • RUSSIA READY TO WORK WITH UKRAINE ON FUTURE PEACE DEAL: TASS
  • PUTIN SAYS HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP WAS VERY MEANINGFUL: IFX
  • PUTIN SAYS TRUCE IS POSSIBLE IF CERTAIN AGREEMENTS REACHED:TASS

But this Putin reference to "certain agreements" or conditions being reached will be the sticking point. Zelensky has repeatedly made clear "this is Ukraine's land" when it comes to the annexed four eastern territories and Crimea.

Very likely, Putin pressed this point with Trump - that Zelensky is refusing any level of compromise (which is precisely what Kiev is currently accusing Moscow of doing). 

As we await the call readouts from both sides, Vice President JD Vance's latest remarks upon returning to the US from Rome lay out where things stand:

Meanwhile...

* * *

President Trump is expected to hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, followed by a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - after they were first announced Saturday.

Writing in all caps, the president posted over the weekend to Truth Social, "The subjects of the call with be, stopping the 'bloodbath' that is killing, on average, more than 5000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, and trade."

He continued in the statement by saying "hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war, a war that should have never happened, will end." His highly optimistic note ended with "God bless us all!!!" - again written in all caps.

Via AFP

Trump has further indicated he'll be in contact with "various" NATO leaders related to these ceasefire efforts, coming on heels of the Friday meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations - the first such direct engagement since efforts at talks ceased within the opening months of 2022 and the war's start.

The NY Times has previewed:

The call, which Mr. Trump said would take place at 10 a.m. Eastern, would be the third known phone conversation between the two men since the American president’s second term began. The first two, which took place in February and March, were celebrated in Moscow as signs of weakening Western resolve to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

And the Kremlin issued the following Monday:

"The conversation is important, taking into account the negotiations held in Istanbul," Peskov said. "As for the talks, we [in the Kremlin] have already said everything we could, we underscored the basic points," he added. "We will now wait for it. We will give the maximum information possible based on the results of the conversation," he stated.

There was little concrete which came out of the meeting, other than a new POW swap - which is to involve 1,000 captives returned on either side - and declarations that each side is open to meeting a gain.

Still, the warring sides are far apart in terms of conditions, with Zelensky having reasserted on Friday, "In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land."

Just ahead of the Putin-Zelensky calls at the White House on Monday:

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed the US administration's thinking on how things are really going at this point. He reiterated to CBS News’ ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday that the White House will not tolerate endless negotiations which simply drag the war and killing on further.

"On the one hand, we’re trying to achieve peace and end a very bloody, costly, and destructive war. So there’s some element of patience that is required," he began by acknowledging.

"On the other hand, we don’t have time to waste. There are a lot of other things happening in the world that we also need to be paying attention to. So we don’t want to be involved in this process of just endless talks. There has to be some progress, some movement forward," he then emphasized.

The US is currently examining competing ceasefire proposals offered by each side. "If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress," he said.

The following is reportedly among Moscow's top list of demands, which can be described as maximalist (at least from the West's perspective), per a recent Bloomberg report:

  • Ukraine agreeing to neutral status regarding NATO
  • No foreign troops in Ukraine
  • No nuclear weapons in Ukraine
  • De-facto recognition of Crimea and lost eastern territories as now Russia's
  • Withdrawal of Kiev forces from these territories before a ceasefire takes effect

But Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin's demand of de-facto recognizing the loss of its territories. Zelensky has time and again vowed to fight on, despite mounting losses and serious manpower issues. 

The White House is likely to latch on to anything positive regarding these talks that it can; however, President Trump has clearly been exerting pressure for more speedy resolution, and is growing impatient.

The Europeans are ready to slap more sanctions on Moscow, and Washington has also warned that this would essentially be plan B if Russia doesn't cooperate. But Russia's fresh maximalist demands will be a hard sell.

*  *  *

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Click pic... buy seeds... take food supply into your own hands... Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 13:40

Israel Allows Aid Into Gaza As WHO Warns 500,000 On Brink Of Starvation

Israel Allows Aid Into Gaza As WHO Warns 500,000 On Brink Of Starvation

Israel has enforced a nearly three-month blockade on humanitarian aid going into the Gaza Strip, amid reports that Hamas and criminal elements have been intercepting and stealing the aid, and then reselling it.

The Wall Street Journal reports Monday that "Israel will allow the resumption of limited aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip, ending a nearly three-month blockade that has depleted humanitarian supplies in the enclave as the military expands its operations there."

Pressure has been coming from Washington and international organizations for the ban on aid to be lifted, on new reports that famine is once again hitting the largely destroyed Palestinian enclave.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office first announced Sunday that "a basic quantity of food to be brought in" to avoid a starvation crisis. He has also declared his intent to take over all of the Gaza Strip.

via Associated Press

Interestingly, the statement said that a driving concern is not the plight of Gaza civilians, but that mass starvation could risk endangering the Israeli military campaign to annihilate the militant group Hamas.

Netanyahu is framing the move as necessary to keep up political support from Washington:

Netanyahu said U.S. senators he has known for years as supporters of Israel, "our best friends in the world", were telling him the scenes of hunger were draining vital support and bringing Israel close to a "red line, to a point where we might lose control".

"It is for that reason, in order to achieve victory, we have to somehow solve the problem," he said, in a message apparently addressed to far-right hardliners in his government who have insisted aid be denied to Gaza to stop it reaching Hamas.

So the new policy to allow aid in is a political ploy, but one that will indeed likely satisfy critics, for the time being at least.

Fresh reports out of the UN and World Health Organization (WHO) have sounded the alarm, saying nearly 500,000 people are at risk of starvation in Gaza.

"Populations across the Gaza Strip are at risk of famine as fighting has surged again, border crossings are still closed, and food is dangerously scarce," a UN statement says.

"Hunger and malnutrition have intensified sharply since all aid was blocked from entering on 2 March, reversing the clear humanitarian gains seen during the ceasefire earlier this year," the UN's World Food Program has said.

And the organization, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), projects that "an alarming 71,000 children and more than 17,000 mothers will need urgent treatment for acute malnutrition. A report states that "At the beginning of 2025, agencies estimated 60,000 children would need treatment."

The organization further warned that "Families in Gaza are starving while the food they need is sitting at the border." As it's believed that tens of thousands of Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants are still utilizing Gaza's vast tunnel network to fight the Israelis, the war looks to continue possibly for years to come.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 13:05

GM Urges The Senate To Kill California's 2035 EV Rules

GM Urges The Senate To Kill California's 2035 EV Rules

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

GM once supported California’s 2035 EV target. It wisely has second thoughts...

Sanity Prevails

In 2022, California Governor Gavin Newsom approved regulations banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035. GM foolishly supported the idea.

I am pleased to report that sanity has prevailed. The Wall Street Journal reports GM Is Pushing Hard to Tank California’s EV Mandate

“We need your help!” GM said in an email it sent this past week to thousands of its white-collar employees. “Emissions standards that are not aligned with market realities pose a serious threat to our business by undermining consumer choice and vehicle affordability.”

GM, one of the biggest sellers of EVs in the U.S., is encouraging employees to use scripted talking points to lobby Senators. The goal is to nullify a 2022 California measure that would ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035, a mandate that has since been adopted by 11 other states. The Senate could vote as early as next week to revoke a waiver that allows California to set its own stricter tailpipe-emissions standards.

GM set its own internal goal of ending sales of nearly all gas-only vehicles by 2035 and initially supported the California target, while advocating for a uniform national standard.

But the EV market has taken a turn. Three years ago, U.S. automakers couldn’t keep up with demand; now EV sales are beginning to sputter. Discounts are drying up, car buyers are seeking lower-priced alternatives, and Congress is looking to roll back tax credits that for years have powered electric-vehicle sales.

GM abandoned a self-imposed target to build 400,000 electric vehicles by mid-2024, and last year the company said it would delay plans for a new Buick electric vehicle and push back the opening of an EV truck factory. Ford Motor and other automakers have similarly scaled back plans.

“GM believes in customer choice, and we continue to focus on offering the best and broadest portfolio of vehicles on the market,” the spokeswoman said. 

The turn against California’s mandate has been bipartisan. When the U.S. House passed a bill identical to the Senate’s earlier this month, 35 Democrats supported the legislation, including two from California.

Rep. Laura Gillen, a Democrat from New York, one of the states to adopt the mandate, said she supports the goal of reducing emissions but that the timeline is “out of touch with reality” and an undue burden on consumers facing a cost-of-living crisis.

“If everybody in my district went out and got an EV, the grid could not accommodate that,” Gillen said.

Hoot of the Day

GM now supports customer choice. Fancy that.

Republicans are using the Congressional Review Act (CRA) which allows Congress to review and potentially overturn federal agency rules.

The maneuver only needs a simple majority and is thus filibuster-proof. Thus, the CRA should pass the Senate easily.

There may be a legal challenge, but I expect Trump will prevail on this one if there is a challenge. If seven Democrats sign on, then this can pass by normal legislation.

Eleven states have adopted California’s mandate and if Democrats take the White House again, they may adopt more nonsensical EV rules.

So it’s best to get 60 votes. But 4 years of sanity is better than none.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 12:45

Dept Of Defense Tells Commanders To Identify Troops With Gender Dysphoria

Dept Of Defense Tells Commanders To Identify Troops With Gender Dysphoria

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Defense has directed commanders to identify service members with a history of gender dysphoria who have not come forward under a new policy that bans transgender troops.

“Commanders who are aware of Service members in their units with gender dysphoria, a history of gender dysphoria, or symptoms consistent with gender dysphoria will direct individualized medical record reviews of such Service members to confirm compliance with medical standards” under the military’s readiness program, Jules W. Hurst III, a Pentagon official, wrote in a memorandum dated May 15.

President Donald Trump has said that people who express a “false ‘gender identity’” cannot meet the standards for military service, and defense officials later promulgated a new policy that bars troops who have or are experiencing gender dysphoria from serving.

At least some of the troops with gender dysphoria, which refers to when people believe they’re a gender that does not match their sex, are undergoing or have completed transgender procedures in an attempt to alter their gender..

The Supreme Court recently stayed a district court order that had been blocking the policy. 

Officials said on May 8 that about 1,000 members have come forward to identify themselves as having gender dysphoria.

Active-duty troops have until June 6 to identify themselves as being unable to serve due to gender dysphoria. The deadline is July 7 for reserves.

During that period, military departments will seek to identify affected troops who choose not to identify themselves, a senior defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters in a call on May 15.

“Commanders who are aware of service members in their units who meet the criteria of this policy will direct individualized medical record reviews. Any individuals who meet the criteria of the policy and do not voluntarily identify themselves and go through the voluntary separation process will be processed involuntarily unless they are granted a waiver,” the official added later.

Troops who are involuntarily separated may lose certain benefits that they would receive if they come forward, according to the Department of Defense.

An estimated 4,200 troops have gender dysphoria. The force has about 2.1 million troops.

The military uses its readiness program to make sure troops are qualified and fit for duty. Medical evaluations are done through the program periodically, including an annual health screening.

When asked about concerns that commanders could abuse the process, the official told reporters in the call that leaders are confident in commanders’ exercising their discretion and protecting the privacy of troop health information.

“Any negative action that they would take to one of their assigned service members that would be retaliatory would be completely unacceptable regardless of whether it concerned this policy or any other policy,” the official added later.

Troops who are discharged under the new policy are eligible for up to $125,000 in separation payments, depending on their rank and how long they’ve been serving.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 12:05

FBI ID's 'Pro-Mortalist' Suspect Shredded In Bombing Of Palm Springs Fertility Clinic

FBI ID's 'Pro-Mortalist' Suspect Shredded In Bombing Of Palm Springs Fertility Clinic

The FBI has identified the suspect in Saturday's powerful car-bombing of a Palm Springs fertility clinic as 25-year-old Guy Edward Bartkus, a man who held an odd set of beliefs about humanity and other sentient life forms. Officials say Bartkus was fatally torn to shreds, and classified his attack as an act of terrorism.

The FBI says Bartkus, who embraced "pro-mortalism" and "anti-natalism," tried to livestream the bombing

While investigators are still working to fully confirm it was the work of Bartkus, they believe he foreshadowed his attack in a manifesto he posted to the internet, along with a 30-minute audio recording. Bartkus was an adherent to a strange philosophy called "pro-mortalism," which encourages the extinction of humanity and other sentient beings to preclude the suffering associated with life. Hand in hand with that belief goes Bartkus' embrace of "anti-natalism," which argues that nobody should have children -- a belief that bears directly on his targeting of a fertility clinic.  

Doing his part to advance pro-mortalism: This hearty slab o' beef is believed to be the torso of Bartkus (via @_Mnimasworld)

In the half-hour-long audio file saved under the title "pre," the calmly-speaking and occasionally-chuckling narrator believed to be Bartkus says: 

“Ooookay, I figured I would just make a recording explaining why I’ve decided to bomb an [in vitro fertilization] building or clinic. Basically, it just comes down to I’m angry that I exist and that, you know, nobody got my consent to bring me here. And I know what you're going to say: 'How could we have gotten your consent, because you didn't exist, blah, blah, blah.' Exactly the point. There's no way you can get consent to bring someone here, so don't fucking do it."         ...   

"Obviously, I'm very against [IVF]. It's extremely wrong. I mean, these are people who are having kids after they've sat there and thought about it. How much more stupid can it get?...I guess you can make the argument 'well at least they're thinking about it'...Yeah, that is something I guess, but at the same time, again, you still can't get the [infant's] goddam consent, you're not getting around that argument...basically, I'm anti-life. And IVF is kind of the epitome of pro-life ideology, so fuck IVF, fuck IVF clinics, and fuck the people that work for them, quite frankly."

The audio recording also likens giving birth to raping an unconscious woman, as neither the woman nor the unborn child is capable of granting consent. The speaker says he has some reluctance about the term "pro-mortalism," because some might misinterpret it as being sadistically "pro-dying;" he emphasizes that it means he's "pro-non-existence." The narrator argues that "parents are the real killers" because "they're the ones making you exist in the first place, which then guarantees a death." He says pro-mortalists encourage that guaranteed death to happen sooner than later so the individual "experience[s] less of life's bullshit."  

The manifesto referred to the homicide of his best friend, someone identified as "Sophie." It seems Sophie shared Bartkus' beliefs: Investigators say she convinced her boyfriend to shoot her in the head as she slept. He was charged with second-degree murder.  “We had agreed… if one of us died, the other would probably follow,” the manifesto read. 

Investigators comb through the wreckage at the American Reproductive Centers clinic in Palm Springs (Reuters / David Swanson)

In its initial report on the bombing, the New York Times used four paragraphs to allude to the possibility that the bombing was the work of conservatives, noting that "many Christian conservatives who oppose abortion also oppose I.V.F. because they do not support the loss of embryos, which they consider people." Bartkus clearly didn't match the Times' roundabout suggestion. However, social media users trying to tether Bartkus to the "extreme left" seem almost as baseless. Indeed, there's no indication yet of Bartkus being aligned with any mainstream political movements or candidates.

He was dismembered when a powerful bomb in his silver 2010 Ford Fusion exploded around 11am local time Saturday -- when the American Reproductive Centers clinic was closed; four bystanders suffered minor injuries and none are hospitalized. While the clinic suffered major damage to its offices and patient-consultation spaces, the IVF lab and its stored embryos went unscathed. Investigators say Bartkus intended to livestream the explosion, going so far as to set up a tripod and camera. However, the video never uploaded to the web. 

Bartkus, who lived about 60 miles away in Twentynine Palms, had been coping with depression and some sort of personal relationship struggles, according to law enforcement sources that spoke to NBC News. It's not yet been reported if, like so many other mentally-troubled people who lash out violently, Bartkus was taking SSRI antidepressant drugs. Neighbors told the Los Angeles Times they hadn't seen anyone in his residence for months. “It’s a bit unsettling to know our neighbor was doing something so evil," said Jeanette Hogan, who lives directly across the street. 

Neighbors were evacuated when police executed a search warrant at Bartkus' home in Twentynine Palms (Gina Ferazzi via LA Times)

The suspect's 75-year-old father, Richard Bartkus, told KTLA 5 News that he hadn't seen his son in 11 years. He described him as having been a "smart, good kid" who'd set fire to the family home as he played with matches at an unspecified age. “After he had burned the house down, he started changing a little bit, he’d light fires,” his father said, choking back tears. “I was too strict for him, so he wanted to stay with Mom until the divorce came through. Mom was lenient.” He said his son was fascinated by making model rockets and smoke bombs -- a fascination he apparently put to work in building a powerful bomb used against the fertility clinic.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:45

Texas House OKs Bill To Sue Vaccine Makers for False Ads

Texas House OKs Bill To Sue Vaccine Makers for False Ads

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via substack,

In a major victory for accountability and informed consent, the Texas House of Representatives passed HB 3441 yesterday, a bill that would allow Texans to sue vaccine manufacturers whose advertising leads to injury or harm.

The unprecedented move comes as CDC data show there have been an alarming 2,665,796 adverse events linked to vaccines since 1990, the vast majority related to COVID-19 jabs.

But if fewer than 1% of adverse events are reported - as a 2010 HHS-funded Harvard analysis confirms - the real number could exceed 266 million, or roughly 7.6 million per year, or 20,800 per day.

First filed in February, the new bill passed yesterday by a vote of 88–31, moving the legislation one step closer to becoming law.

The pioneering legislation boasts a whopping 79 brave sponsors, 74 Republicans and 5 Democrats.

The bill is spearheaded by Representatives Shelley Luther (R-62), Jeff Leach (R-67), Marc LaHood (R-121), Oscar Longoria (D-35), and Mike Schofield (R-132).

If you want this kind of bill passed in your state or at the federal level, you can find your local, state, and U.S. representatives here and let them know.

What the Bill Does

Texas House Bill 3441, titled “Relating to the liability of vaccine manufacturers that advertise a harmful vaccine,” holds pharmaceutical companies liable if:

  • They advertise a vaccine in Texas through paid promotion, and

  • That advertised vaccine causes injury or harm to an individual.

In short: if a vaccine manufacturer pushes a product through ads—and that product ends up causing harm—they can be sued for it in court.

The bill defines “advertising” broadly to include:

  • Television and radio ads

  • Print media and digital media

  • Product placements and influencer promotions

But excludes materials inside a clinical setting or direct conversations between doctors and patients.

Legal Ramifications

HB 3441 creates a clear legal pathway for Texans to bring a civil action against vaccine manufacturers—up to three years after the injury occurs.

If the injured party prevails in court, the manufacturer is required to pay:

  • Actual damages

  • Court costs

  • Attorney’s fees

Why This Matters

For decades, vaccine manufacturers have enjoyed near-total immunity from liability thanks to federal protections under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 and the PREP Act.

But HB 3441 cuts through that shield—not by targeting the product itself, but by going after the promotional lies used to sell it.

Cleverly, the bill’s authors appear to be leveraging the advertising hook as a legal workaround to federal immunity, holding companies accountable for the claims they make, not merely the product they produce.

This represents a massive legal shift.

If HB 3441 becomes law, Texas could become the first state in the nation to strip vaccine manufacturers of their immunity—at least when it comes to deceptive advertising that leads to harm.

What’s Next

The bill is now classified as “engrossed,” meaning it’s cleared the House and is headed to the Texas Senate for consideration. If it passes the Senate and is signed by the governor, it will go into effect on September 1, 2025.

Bottom Line

The message from Texas lawmakers is clear: If you lied in your ad and your shot injured someone - get ready to pay up.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:25

Germany Makes "Sea-Change Policy Shift" On Nuclear Power In Europe

Germany Makes "Sea-Change Policy Shift" On Nuclear Power In Europe

Three weeks after widespread power grid failures across Portugal and Spain, triggered by unreliable solar and wind power, Germany appears to be sharply recalibrating its energy stance. 

In a notable policy shift, the new conservative government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has reversed its longstanding opposition to nuclear power. The move reflects a growing understanding in Berlin that overreliance on unreliable solar and wind power generation poses serious risks to economic stability and energy security. The shift also signals a broader return to common-sense energy policymaking in Europe, with nuclear power increasingly viewed as critical in France in achieving reliable, low-carbon power generation.

The Financial Times reports that German officials have informed Paris they will no longer oppose French efforts to have nuclear energy recognized as equivalent to renewables in EU legislation. This marks a significant policy shift, considering former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had firmly opposed treating nuclear power on the same level as solar and wind in the EU's framework for achieving net zero by 2050.

"The Germans are telling us: we will be very pragmatic on the issue of nuclear power," an anonymous French diplomat told the FT, which was involved in the talks with the Germans. The person said this means that "all the biases against nuclear power, which still remain here and there in EU legislation, will be removed."

"This will be a sea-change policy shift," said a German official.

Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at think-tank Bruegel, said, "It's a welcome rapprochement that will make the topic of energy easier in the EU," adding, "Politically, Merz is also thinking about the nuclear umbrella."

Berlin's reversal on nuclear power comes three weeks after solar and wind collapsed the power grids across Portugal and Spain. 

Europe's dangerous and radical shift to unreliable net-zero energy has been nothing short of a disaster and an embarrassment for the far-left liberals high in their castles in Brussels. 

Merz has clearly recognized the urgent need to reverse degrowth net-zero policies. He also understands the strategic urgency of revitalizing Franco-German cooperation—a prerequisite for unlocking stalled EU-level decision-making under former Chancellor Scholz.

"When France and Germany agree, it is much easier for Europe to move forward," said Lars-Hendrik Röller, a professor at Berlin-based ESMT business school who was chief economic adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, adding, "While several challenges remain, I believe this issue will be solved."

Last week, FT obtained a letter sent to the European Commission by ministers from 12 European member states explaining that it was "imperative" that Brussels acknowledge the "complementary nature of nuclear and renewable energy sources."

The new Franco-German policy shift on energy is critical for Europe to get its house in order, considering NatGas prices have surged since the Ukraine-Russia war, making manufacturing uncompetitive on global markets because inputs have driven up prices of end products (such as automobiles). Solar and wind trends have also created instability in the power grid, which is a national security threat.

It's encouraging to see that Germany has finally acknowledged what has long been clear: a stable, reliable path to net-zero requires nuclear power. ZeroHedge readers have been well ahead of this theme since December 2020. More details here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 11:05

What Downgrade? Stocks & Bonds Surge Into The Green After Moody's Cut

What Downgrade? Stocks & Bonds Surge Into The Green After Moody's Cut

Despte all the doomsaying and blame-scaping following Moody's downgrade late on Friday night, the market has well and truly shrugged off the FUD (for now).

US equity markets have ripped higher from the cash open with The Dow erasing all of the losses sine Friday's cash close...

2Y Treasury yields are now lower on the day also...

As we detailed here and here, this is not the end of the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 10:24

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