Archeologist's Comment On Human Sacrifice Exposes Inanity Of 'Oppression Studies' Mindset

Authored by Dave Huber via The College Fix,

Making the rounds this past week were comments by a Mexican archeologist regarding the discovery of a Mayan altar at which child sacrifices were performed.

As reported by CBS News, the altar, found in Tikal National Park, showed “the remains of three children not older than 4 years,” according to the scholar who led the discovery team.

The savagery of how such sacrifices were performed, however, is not brought up. Instead, we merely read how Tikal was “a cosmopolitan center,” a “center of cultural convergence,” and how the altar had a “figure representing the Storm Goddess.”

CBS also managed to get a comment from an archeologist not affiliated with the findings at Tikal. How come? Probably because María Belén Méndez of the National Autonomous University of Mexico said the child sacrifices were merely “a practice.”

“It’s not that [its practitioners] were violent,” Belén Méndez said, just that sacrifices were “their way of connecting with the celestial bodies.”

As Reason Senior Editor (and former College Fix contributor) Robby Soave put it, “mostly peaceful child sacrifice”?

Now, imagine CBS News finding some deep-woods gentleman in, say, Middle-Of-Nowhere Arkansas. He’s holding several individuals captive on his property and forcing them to work for him and tend to his land:

Professor Antoinette Whitebread told CBS News it’s not that this man was practicing slavery. It was just his way of connecting with the Bible. After all, in Leviticus and Joshua we read “Moses tells the Israelites on the way to the Promised Land how they should acquire and keep slaves,” and that “some of you shall always be slaves.”

In the the New Testament, Ephesians notes that Paul said “Slaves, obey your earthly masters with fear and trembling.”

We have to imagine this as of course CBS would never run such a segment — because it’s ridiculous. The West long ago rejected such justifications (if they ever really existed in the first place), and there’s no way CBS or other news outlets would treat this hypothetical without referencing the inherent barbarity.

Oppression studies dictates that Western values, culture, and even science aren’t any better than others’, and since they’ve been the (positive) focus for so long, the focus must now shift elsewhere — but only with favorable narratives.

New Zealand, for example, tells us “indigenous ways of knowing” are on par with modern Western science methods. The University of Massachusetts Amherst got a $30 million federal grant in 2023 to “braid” indigenous knowledge into science. And a required nursing class at the University of Alberta teaches about “indigenous ways” of understanding “health … and being one with nature.”

In the meantime, high school and college students are taught that the West’s history of “settler-colonialism” is responsible for just about any conceivable ill. Courses and workshops on “whiteness,” “white supremacy,” “white fragility,” etc. cover all that and then some.

The irony of the CBS story is that 1) the Maya/Teotihuacan never encountered Europeans (their eventual successors, the Aztec, wouldn’t meet Cortez and Co. until 700 years later), and 2) the Maya actually were quite advanced mathematically and scientifically. 

Thus, even on an oppression studies basis, there’s no reason to sugarcoat their heinous practice of human sacrifice.

But whoever said oppression studies and its adherents make any sense?

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 06:30

Breaking Down Copper Trade In Charts Amid Noisy Trade War, IMF Downgrade

The ongoing trade war is poised to deliver a negative shock to US growth, prompting the International Monetary Fund to slash its 2025 forecast earlier Tuesday. This gloomier outlook has sharpened our focus on the once high-flying industrial metals market—now showing signs of weakness—particularly the copper market.

Goldman analyst Adam Gillard provided clients with a snapshot of current conditions in the copper market, highlighting tight physical supply in China and continued strength in domestic demand.

However, Gillard cautioned that ongoing global industrial production weakness and declining Chinese exports—driven by the deepening trade war—could tip the market into surplus.

The analyst outlined four micro data points on the copper markets for clients to better gauge sentiment:

1. US cathode imports: YTD imports from BL data 408k MT implying an "over-import" of ~100k MT vs market expectations of ~300k MT (by June). If this run rate continues LME should tighten despite the likely tariff related demand shock.

Source: Goldman Sachs Research

2. Scrap: US scrap spreads remain under pressure as rising discounts erode the CME premium (US scrap is priced off CMX). March exports unchanged sequentially despite ARB strength; we don't have April export data yet but this will be key given lower US exports (FY production ~542k MT contained) were key to the bull thesis.

3. Chinese demand: Ostensibly strong; YTD demand +10% due to production strength (from increased smelter capacity), seasonally adjusted stock draws (in part due to tariff related tolling exports) and strong net imports (despite deeply negative SHFE / LME import arb). Think this figure inflated by SMM production numbers (base affect) but a strong number nonetheless.

4. Positioning: Although our CTA model is running close to max short LME net spec at 28k is above the Aug24 low of 16k, and China appear to be still be running long on Shanghai (due to strong domestic demand).

Source: Goldman Sachs Research

The question remains whether copper bulls like Kostas Bintas, Trafigura Group's former co-head of metals and now with Mercuria Energy Group, and/or Carlyle Group's Jeff Currie (former Goldman boss of commodities) are still bullish on the industrial metal—or if the trade war has delayed their thesis of much higher prices. 

LME Copper...

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 05:45

Iran Offers More Nuclear Transparency In Exchange For Lifting Sanctions

Iran says that ready to make its nuclear program more transparent at a moment it is preparing to send representatives for a third round of talks with the United States, set for April 26.

Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tuesday that Tehran in return for this greater transparency wants US-led sanctions lifted.

"We will try to create more transparency and more trust [in the nuclear program] in exchange for lifting sanctions. In other words, in exchange for lifting sanctions — I emphasize, in a way that is effective and has a [positive] effect on people's lives — Iran is ready to create more trust in its nuclear program and more transparency," Mohajerani told reporters.

Mohajerani made clear that Tehran is ready to reach "good agreement" with the United States on nuclear issue. "We are confident that reaching a good agreement in a short time while respecting our national interests is realistic," she said, calling the prior two rounds "good" amid a "constructive" atmosphere.

The day prior to these optimistic remarks, Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned that Israel was seeking to "undermine" the ongoing nuclear talks with Washington, amid reports in Israeli media that leaders are mulling a 'limited' attack on the Islamic Republic.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that a "kind of coalition is forming… to undermine and disrupt the diplomatic process" and that the "Zionist regime is at the center of this effort."

Alluding to reports from last week of an internal US administration split on Iran, Baghaei further warned that hawks in the US are also involved in the effort to sabotage the talks. "Alongside it are a series of warmongering currents in the United States and figures from different factions," he said.

President Trump has reportedly told the Israelis that no, he will not support preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and that he prefers to negotiate a solution. Below is what the US side said after last weekend's second round of talks in Rome: 

"Today, in Rome, over four hours in our second round of talks, we made very good progress in our direct and indirect discussions," the official said Saturday. "We agreed to meet again next week and are grateful to our Omani partners for facilitating these talks and to our Italian partners for hosting us today."

Russia too, as an original signatory to the defunct 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, is getting more deeply involved - reportedly at the invitation of the Trump administration.

The leader of Oman, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, visited Moscow on Tuesday where he met with President Vladimir Putin to discuss what's next.

"Oman has been mediating between Iran and the United States as President Donald Trump seeks an agreement that would curb Iran's nuclear program, which Washington believes is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon," writes Reuters.

Fiery exchange between Israeli spox and editor-and-chief of Russia's RT...

A fiery back-and-forth after we asked Israeli foreign ministry spokesperson if Israel will give up its nuclear weapons if Iran's nuclear program is dismantled.

"Israel is not a threat to anyone. We don't have any ambitions in any other country. Iran has ambition in the entire… pic.twitter.com/LlSH3Y3OYD

— Margarita Simonyan (@M_Simonyan) April 22, 2025

"We discussed the progress of negotiations between Iranian and American representatives," a Kremlin statement said. Moscow and Tehran have been increasingly close, given their recent cooperation on defense, and in places like Ukraine - where Russian forces are heavily reliant on Iran-produced suicide drones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 04:15

Estonia Might Become Europe's Next Trouble Spot

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The latest socio-political and security developments suggest that it relishes being a frontline state...

Estonia catapulted back into international news after it recently seized an alleged vessel from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”, to which Russia had a restrained reaction for the pragmatic reasons explained here, but it’s also been stirring up trouble with Russia in other ways too. The aforementioned provocation coincides with the passing of a law allowing Estonia to sink foreign vessels that it deems to pose a national security threat. It’s possible that this could be the next planned regional escalation.

On the security front, Estonia also reportedly wants to deploy some of its troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission jointly led by France and the UK. Moreover, there’s always the chance that the UK decides to transform its rotational ~1,000-troop military presence in Estonia into a permanent fixture. That would make it the third NATO member to do so in the region after the US (in Poland and Romania) and Germany (in Lithuania). This could be sold as a hedge against the US withdrawing some of its troops.

Estonia’s internal situation is also becoming increasingly tense as a result of three interconnected developments.

The first concerns the latest law denying local voting rights to foreigners, which includes some of those 22.5% of Russians living in the country who don’t meet the post-independence criteria for citizenship and are thus legally classified as “stateless persons”.

For background, Estonia considers them to be the descendants of “Soviet occupiers”, which is the basis upon which it’s restricted their rights.

Expanding upon the last point about historical perception, Estonia is also ramping up its long-running campaign of dismantling Soviet-era World War II monuments, which the state regards symbols of Soviet occupation. 

Russia, however, believes that this move amounts to historical revisionism. In connection with that, readers should be aware that Russia has consistently accused Estonia of glorifying Nazi collaborators, with the most blatant example thereof being the annual marches in honor of the SS.

As if these moves weren’t provocative enough, Estonia just passed a law requiring the Estonian Chrisitan Orthodox Church to sever its canonical ties with the Russian Orthodox Church. 

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharov reacted to this by denouncing “the systematic destruction of fundamental human rights and freedoms continues under the guise of far-fetched, so-called democratic slogans. Once again, a blow has been dealt to one of the most sensitive areas – religious rights and freedoms.”

Estonia is able to threaten Russia’s direct and indirect interests, correspondingly relating to its national security and the rights of its co-ethnics in that country, with impunity due to its NATO membership. The only realistic scenarios in which Russia might countenance using military force are if Estonia participates in blockading the Gulf of Finland, uses force against Russian vessels (whether a warship or Russian-flagged civilian ship), or attacks across the “Baltic Defence Line” that it’s building along their border.

So long as Estonia keeps its provocations below these thresholds, then the risk of a major war breaking out should remain low, but bilateral tensions will worsen as will those between Russia and the European members of NATO. That could turn Estonia into Europe’s next trouble spot, thus accelerating the militarization of the Baltic Sea and the nearby Arctic region, likely including the Russian-Finnish border. Russian-EU tensions would then persist indefinitely even if Russian-US relations improve in the future.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 03:30

Zelensky Wants To Meet Trump In Rome At Pope's Funeral

The last time Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky was in the same room with US President Donald Trump, it didn't go so well. That was scene of the February 28 fireworks in Oval Office (see below), also involving Vice President JD Vance. Since then, US-Ukraine relations have been very strained, and Trump had even briefly halted the flow of weapons to Ukrainian forces.

Zelensky would like to try again, at a moment he's not happy the US and Russia are engaged in ongoing bilateral talks with the purpose of diplomatic normalization and achieving resolution to the Ukraine war. Zelensky on Tuesday made clear that he would like to meet Trump in the Vatican on Saturday where global leaders will attend the funeral of Pope Francis, who died in the early hours of Monday.

St. Peter's Square, file image

"Yes, I would like to, I am ready. We are always ready to meet with our partners from the United States," Zelensky said in answering a journalist's question on whether he hopes to meet Trump and the funeral ceremonies.

And a Vatican statement has indicated the two leaders are likely to sit near each other, up at the front of the proceedings.

"We expect the world leaders coming for the papal funeral, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, will be seated in the front row or towards the front of the funeral in St. Peter's Square on Saturday morning. We might see some images of the world leaders greeting each other. The ceremony will be solemn," it stated.

Trump just before this last weekend warned he's ready to walk away from efforts to forge a peace deal if progress is not quickly made, and that's when Putin unveiled his 30-hour Easter truce.

This week much discussion has reportedly focused on Crimea, with the US being open to giving formal recognition of Russia's hold over the peninsula. But this has been another source of tension, as Zelensky has already rejected this.

If Trump and Zelensky do meet, it could be just brief and informal, or else they could set up a meeting on the sidelines while in Rome. According to more details of funeral preparations:

Francis's coffin -- which he previously ordered should be of wood and zinc -- will then be taken inside the church and from there to Rome's papal basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore for burial. 

The funeral date was set by cardinals meeting in a so-called "general congregation", the first of a series of meetings which will culminate in a conclave within three weeks, where a new pope will be elected.

Francis died in the Casa Santa Marta, the Vatican residence where he lived during his 12-year papacy, and his body was laid out in its chapel on Monday evening.

The Pope during his pontificate frequently called for peace in Ukraine, but he also at times lashed out at the West and the arms industry for fueling the bloodshed.

Not very long ago, in late February, this scene played out at the White House...

Wow.

Vance and Trump went in on Zelensky and it was deserved. pic.twitter.com/dnAsRDIqWf

— Wendy O (@CryptoWendyO) February 28, 2025

At the moment, at least 99.5% of Kursk territory is back in Russia's control. Russia's military also still continues to advance in remaining parts of Donetsk still held by Ukraine, but slowly and village by village.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 02:45

Austria Sees Sharp Drop In Asylum Applications, March Hits Lowest Level Since 2020

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The number of asylum applications in Austria dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2025, marking a significant decline of 33 percent compared to the same period last year.

From January through March, a total of 4,644 applications were submitted. With 1,329 applications, March saw the fewest monthly asylum requests since July 2020.

As reported by Heute, only around one in three asylum requests are new, with the remainder typically involving requests for an upgrade in status, such as moving from subsidiary protection to full asylum, as well as applications for children born in Austria or those related to family reunification.

This pattern is particularly evident among Afghan nationals. Of the 504 Afghan applications submitted in the first quarter, just 93 were first-time filings. One contributing factor is the continuing effect of a European Court of Justice decision, which states that Afghan women do not require individual hearings in certain cases. As a result, individuals previously granted subsidiary protection are increasingly applying for full asylum status.

Syrians show a similar trend, with 268 follow-up applications compared to only 58 new ones. The Austrian government continues to accept asylum applications from Syrians, but generally does not process them while the political future of Syria remains uncertain following the Islamist coup in Damascus and the fall of the deposed former president Bashar al-Assad.

As of now, there are 12,918 pending asylum cases involving Syrians, followed by 4,112 involving Afghans. In total, Austria is handling just under 15,300 asylum cases a year. During the first quarter, asylum status was granted in 2,120 cases, while subsidiary protection was approved 451 times and humanitarian residence in 299 cases.

Afghans were the most likely group to receive asylum or residence, with almost 1,500 individuals granted asylum titles alone. In contrast, only 77 Syrians were granted asylum during the same period.

The new coalition government in Vienna is expected to introduce new legislation to suspend family reunification for at least a year, which is expected to further halt the flow of asylum applications in the country.

Austria's new government announced it will “temporarily” suspend family reunification for migrants.

The right-wing FPÖ says it's all smoke and mirrors.

"The quota is supposed to be zero for only half a year, then more people will be reunited." said FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl. pic.twitter.com/7n807KB4vm

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) March 13, 2025

A poll published last month found that more than 80 percent of respondents in Austria back tighter asylum regulations.

A general decline in asylum applications was also observed across the wider European Union, with 210,641 applications filed by the end of March, representing a 19 percent drop. However, some countries, including Poland, Croatia, Luxembourg, and Belgium, have seen increases in applications.

When population is taken into account, Austria now ranks tenth among European countries in terms of asylum application rates.

Despite the drop in new applications, Austria’s basic support infrastructure remains under pressure. As of early April, more than 65,000 individuals were receiving basic care services, although this number has decreased by nearly 3,000 since the beginning of the year.

These services were particularly affected by the influx of Ukrainian refugees over the past few years, with 55 percent of those receiving support coming from the war-torn country.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/23/2025 - 02:00

Andrew Cuomo Referred To DOJ For Criminal Prosecution

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

Last October, the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic has sent a criminal referral to the Justice Department, recommending former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo be charged with making false statements to Congress.

Unsurprisingly, the DOJ ignored the referral. Some six months later, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., has asked Trump’s Justice Department to take a look at the matter again.

“To our knowledge, the Biden Administration ignored this referral despite clear facts and evidence. Accordingly, we request you review this referral and take appropriate action,” Comer said Monday in a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Andrew Cuomo LIED to Congress about his deadly nursing home scandal.

That’s why Chairman Comer (@RepJamesComer) is re-upping his referral to the DOJ (@TheJusticeDept / @AGPamBondi) for criminal charges.

Seniors in New York DIED under Cuomo’s must-admit nursing home order. pic.twitter.com/FIZxp0ujgk

— Oversight Committee (@GOPoversight) April 21, 2025

According to last year’s coronavirus subcommittee report, Cuomo had reviewed, edited, and even drafted portions of a purportedly independent and peer-reviewed New York State Department of Health report, which was used to support his deadly pandemic-era nursing home policies.

However, Cuomo told the subcommittee in his June transcribed interview that he had nothing to do with that report. Cuomo’s lie is why the House GOP wants him criminally charged.

“Andrew Cuomo is a man with a history of corruption and deceit, now caught red-handed lying to Congress during the Select Subcommittee’s investigation into the COVID-19 nursing home tragedy in New York,” Comer said Monday.

“This wasn’t a slip-up—it was a calculated cover-up by a man seeking to shield himself from responsibility for the devastating loss of life in New York’s nursing homes.”

The Cuomo administration came under significant scrutiny for a policy that at first required nursing homes to readmit recovering COVID-19 patients in an effort to avoid hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. That was on top of state fatality figures that significantly undercounted the deaths.

In June, an investigation into New York’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic found former Gov. Cuomo’s “top down” approach of dictating public health policy through his office—rather than coordinating with state and local agencies—sewed confusion during the crisis.

In the state’s nursing homes, where some 15,000 people died, the administration’s lack of communication with agencies and facilities resulted in wasted resources and mistrust — not to mention anxiety for residents’ loved ones, according to the independent probe commissioned by current Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022.

Cuomo resigned from office in August 2021, amid sexual harassment allegations, which he denies. Hochul, a fellow Democrat who had been Cuomo’s lieutenant, inherited the job and was reelected the follow year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 17:40

Democrat County Attorney Lets Anti-Tesla Terrorist Off the Hook

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJ Media,

So an unhinged leftist goes through downtown Minneapolis, casually walking his dog and keying Teslas as if it’s a hobby. Not just one or two vehicles, but six Teslas, to be exact, with damage totaling more than $20,000. Caught red-handed on video, arrested by police, and unequivocally identified as 33-year-old Dylan Adams, a state employee no less. 

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Seems like a slam-dunk criminal case, right? Wrong. Instead of holding him accountable, Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty decided to give him a pass.

Yes, you read that right. The man caused tens of thousands of dollars in damage, but rather than face criminal charges, Adams gets the warm embrace of “diversion.” According to Moriarty’s office, its priority is ensuring that he “keeps his job” and has the opportunity to pay restitution. Really? Is this what justice looks like now under liberal leadership—a coddling of the perpetrator while his victims are left wondering if their property even matters? This isn’t prosecutorial discretion; it’s left-wing activism.

Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty

As a Democrat affiliated with Minnesota’s DFL Party, Moriarity has consistently championed leftist criminal justice reforms, including claims of racial disparities in marijuana stings and traffic stops, advocating for reduced incarceration, and emphasizing rehabilitation for juvenile offenders. Her tenure as Hennepin County Public Defender has been marked by clashes with establishment figures over her vocal stance on systemic racism. She also publicly identified as queer during her campaign, aligning herself with broader social justice movements.

This is a case study in everything wrong with progressive governance. Minneapolis police did their job. They identified a suspect, arrested him, and presented the case to the Hennepin County Attorney’s Office. But instead of enforcing the law, Moriarty turned it into a joke. The perpetrator is a state employee, a data analyst for the Department of Human Services. If that sounds familiar, it’s because bureaucrats like him are protected at all costs under leftist policies, and that protection comes at our expense. 

Who benefits from this? It’s certainly not the victims, who now have to fight tooth and nail for restitution they may never see. And it’s certainly not law-abiding citizens who are left wondering if criminals face any real consequences anymore. This isn’t just a failure at the local level; it’s emblematic of a broader liberal obsession with excusing bad behavior. In their worldview, the criminal is somehow the real victim, and property crimes are treated as minor inconveniences instead of serious offenses.  

But this wasn’t a random outburst of poor judgment. Adams systematically keyed cars targeting automotive “villains” like Tesla because Elon Musk has the audacity to want to root out wasteful spending from the government. 

NEW: Minneapolis Police Department rips far-left DA Mary Moriarty for declining to charge a Minnesota government employee who caused $20,000 in damages to Teslas.

No wonder why Minneapolis is turning into a sh*t hole.

Police provided evidence of 33-year-old Dylan Bryan Adams… pic.twitter.com/g7h7lnjnks

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 22, 2025

Even more infuriating, Moriarty’s office tried to spin this decision as a win for fairness and justice. “Our main priorities are to secure restitution for the victims and hold Mr. Adams accountable,” a spokesperson claimed. 

Really? Because it seems like the only person with guaranteed benefits here is the guy who broke the law. The attorney’s office also claimed this diversion program would reduce the likelihood of repeat offenses. How? By letting him off with a slap on the wrist? Forgive us if we're skeptical of that logic.

This entire fiasco exposes the moral bankruptcy at the core of leftist ideology. These are the same people who excused the chaos and destruction of the BLM riots, who now clamor for the return of a deported MS-13 gang member, and who remain conveniently silent as Teslas are vandalized simply because the company’s CEO is aligned with Donald Trump. Time and again, Democrats show us exactly who they are: the party that coddles criminals and vilifies law-abiding Americans. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 16:55

Tesla Misses Across The Board; Slams "Uncertainty" In Automotive Market, But Affirms Affordable Model "Remains On Track" For H1 2025

With everyone's attention turning to Mag7 heavyweight Tesla after hours (full preview here), focus will be on whether outlook is reduced after weaker Q1 sales; other key focus points will be i) robotaxi launch, ii) FSD adoptions in China and Europe and iii) updates on lower priced vehicles/new launches. TSLA stock is down -53% from it’s December highs (-40% YTD) and given all the negative press of late (including ‘code red’ headlines yesterday) leave Goldman thinking that positioning and expectations are very low at this point.

To that point, Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Securities, thinks Tesla’s investment case has little to do with how the company performs this year. Rather, investors are looking to 2026 and beyond and Tesla’s autonomy opportunity. “I expect $TSLA to be ugly tonight (11-12% auto gross margins ex credits, down from 13.6% in December) — and it probably doesn’t matter,” Munster said in a post on X ahead of the results.

Also as widely documented recently, amid backlash against Musk, some Tesla owners are opting to trade their vehicles in. While used vehicles are increasing in price by about 1% on average, Tesla models are seeing price drops of about 10%, according to iSeeCars.com, which may be a discussion point on the earnings call.

So with that in mind, Tesla shares close the day up 4.6%, with straddles pricing in a +/-10% move after earnings. Here is what the company just reported for Q1 moments ago. As Munster predicted, it was ugly.

• Revenues $19.34BN, big miss to estimates of $21.37BN
• EPS 27c, missing estimates of 43c
• Gross margin 16.3% (down from 17.4% y/y), and beating estimates of 16.1%
• Automotive gross margin ex reg credits 12.5%, beating estimates of 11.9%
• Operating income $399 million, -66% y/y, missing estimates of $1.13 billion
• Free cash flow $664 million (vs. negative $2.53 billion y/y) missing  estimate $1.08 billion
• Capital expenditure $1.49 billion (down -46% vs $2.77Bn y/y and down 47% vs $2.78BN Q/Q), missing estimates of $2.49 billion

And visually:

Of note, Tesla eked out positive free cash flow number by slashing capex almost in half compared with the prior quarter and a year ago. Absent that, it would have burned cash. Below we summarize commentary and context from the investor letter (more details below)

• Will Revisit Our 2025 Guidance in Our Q2 Update
• Leaves Out Return to Growth Forecast From Earnings Report
• Rate of Growth Will Depend on A Variety of Factors
• Tariff Landscape to Have A Larger Impact on Energy Unit
• Says Difficult to Measure Impacts of Global Trade Policy
• Actions to Stabilize in Medium to Long-Term
• Sufficient Liquidity to Fund Our Product Roadmap
• Plans for New Vehicles on Track for Start Prod in 1H '25
• Uncertainty Could Impact Demand in Near Term
• Sees More Affordable Models Lead to Less Cost Reduction
• Despite Tariffs, Sees Increasing Need for Energy Storage
• Tariffs to Impact Energy More Than Automotive

The company's Q1 investor letter was far more downbeat than investors had come to expect. Here is what Musk had to say about the company's highlights:

Uncertainty in the automotive and energy markets continues to increase as rapidly evolving trade policy adversely impacts the global supply chain and cost structure of Tesla and our peers. This dynamic, along with changing political sentiment, could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term. We remain committed to expanding our business model to include delivering autonomous robots across multiple form factors and use cases – powered by our real-world AI expertise – to our customers and for use in our factories, as we navigate these headwinds.

The warnings continued, with an emphasis on the company's energy business:

AI is a major pillar of growth for Tesla and the broader economy and key to our pursuit of sustainable abundance. Furthermore, AI infrastructure is driving rapid load growth, which, along with traditional utility customer applications, is creating an outsized opportunity for our Energy storage products to stabilize the grid, shift energy when it is needed most and provide additional power capacity. While the current tariff landscape will have a relatively larger impact on our Energy business compared to automotive, we are taking actions to stabilize the business in the medium to long-term and focus on maintaining its health.

As Bloomberg expands on the bolded text, that must be because Tesla’s Megapack product, the massive batteries that store energy, uses LFP cells, which are largely imported from China. It’s also helpful to remember that North America only made up 5% of global lithium-ion battery production capacity in 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie. China, meanwhile, made up 84%. While the US is ramping up its domestic battery manufacturing capacity, that will take time. 

More to this point, Tesla acknowledged it still has a little ways to go for onshoring its own lithium supply: “Our lithium refining and cathode production plants are on track to start production in 2025, onshoring production of critical battery materials to the US.”

But most troubling was the following segment, announcing that the company will only discuss 2025 guidance in the Q2 update next quarter:

It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services. While we are making prudent investments that will set up both our vehicle and energy businesses for growth, the rate of growth this year will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts, production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment. We will revisit our 2025 guidance in our Q2 update.

And then there was this ominous headline from Bloomberg:

• *TESLA LEAVES OUT RETURN TO GROWTH FORECAST FROM EARNINGS REPORT

Investors will certainly be interested in seeing what Elon has to say about his close relationship with Donald Trump; here Bloomberg notes that the deck doesn’t mention Musk. But it does acknowledge “changing political sentiment” which “could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term." It will be interesting if that’s the case in more than one region. There were many concerned that the Chinese consumer would champion domestic names due to Musk’s association with the Trump administration and its tariff policy.

While this barrage of warnings and negative news would have been enough to send the stock plunging after hours, the following section from the earnings report is what some are clinging to to explain why the stock is modestly higher after hours:

Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup.

Tesla elaborates that "this approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 60% growth over 2024 production before investing in new manufacturing lines."

As for the company's Robotaxi product, the  Cybercab, Tesla said it is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026.

One wonders how long the initial upside momentum in the stock price will persist once investors dig into this latest attempt to manage expectations.

For now, it is working and after swinging after hours, TSLA stock has tabilize modestly in the green, trading just around $238. Dave Mazza, CEO at Roundhill Financial, had this to say post results: “A lot of negative seems to be priced in if the Tesla numbers were that bad and the stock isn’t tanking.”

Full investor presentation below (full pdf here):

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 16:33

Defy, Deny, Defund, Deport, Destroy

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

I must have dreamed a thousand dreams
Been haunted by a million screams
But I can hear the marching feet
They’re moving into the street

Now, did you read the news today?
They say the danger has gone away
But I can see the fire’s still alight
They’re burning into the night

There’s too many men, too many people
Making too many problems
And there’s not much love to go around
Can’t you see this is the land of confusion?

Genesis – Land of Confusion

I think “Land of Confusion” is an accurate description of the world in 2025, even if the song was written in 1986 during the Reagan presidency. The three-month-old Trump presidency has been a whirlwind of executive orders, high profile deportations, mass firings of stay-at-home government drones who pretend to work, daily revelations from DOGE about massive waste, fraud, and corruption within the Federal government, defunding the democrat slush fund – USAID, release of JFK files showing the CIA was involved, defunding the Ukraine debacle, negotiating with Putin to end the war while the EU attempts to undermine those negotiations to start WW3, and now waging a global tariff war against China and every country who have taken advantage of our penchant for consuming while going into massive debt to do so.

The Wall Street cabal and foreign owners of our trillions in Treasury debt have attempted to derail Trump’s tariff war by throwing a hissy fit like they did after their $700 billion TARP bailout was initially voted down in 2008. They drove the stock market down 17% and drove the 10-Year Treasury up 50 basis points in a matter of days, before Trump yelled uncle, delayed most tariffs for 90 days and has been busy granting exceptions to favored industries who have his ear.

Despite running on a platform of ending the Ukraine war and the Israel Gaza conflict within weeks of taking office, the Ukraine war is not close to being resolved, and Trump has done nothing but pour gasoline on the Middle East fire. He has increased military aid to Israel so they can continue to bomb the rubble that is Gaza. He is spending billions bombing the Houthis, while risking our carrier groups, when we have no real strategic interest in doing so, other than doing Netanyahu’s bidding.

One day he threatens Iran with obliteration, and the next day he sends a negotiator to talk things over. Threaten and back-off seems to be Trump’s standard operating procedure. Xi knows this is Trump’s method of winning negotiations, so his response has been to match Trump’s threats with his own threats. Waiting for someone to blink.

Trump continues to de-fund and penalize the largest universities in the U.S. because a few thousand of their students protested on their campuses about Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. In my book, free speech means free speech, whether I like it or not. The antisemitism narrative being pushed by the Trump administration and their MSM cheerleaders at Fox seems excessive and overblown. Miriam Adleson’s $100 million campaign contribution seems to be paying off.

When you impartially step back and observe how Trump treats Netanyahu and how the vast majority in congress do whatever Israel instructs them to do, it’s undeniable our government is broadly controlled by another country that does not have our best interests at heart. AIPAC uses bribes and threats to keep our politicians in line. This fact is clearly revealed by how they treat Thomas Massie, the most principled freedom-loving person in congress. He has been declared Israel Enemy #1 by AIPAC and their Israel handlers for not kissing their ring.

Confusion reigns because the world is lost in a blizzard of lies and paralyzed in a boundless morass of uncertainty. The ability of corporations, small business owners, and average Americans to make decisions, based upon a reasonable understanding of the rules of the game and what the near-term future holds, has been obliterated because the rules change on a daily basis. I know Trump’s tariff bonanza is designed as a negotiating tactic to force foreign countries to lower their trade barriers and give American exporters a level playing field. As a negotiating tactic, it is a bold roll of the dice. If it works, as the biggest importer in the world, Americans will benefit from lower prices. China is the wildcard.

If Trump cannot negotiate a reasonable agreement with China and tariff increases remain in effect, an inflationary global recession will ensue. The debt saturated American economy cannot endure higher interest rates, higher inflation, higher deficits, rising unemployment, and interest on the national debt soaring above $1 trillion. It most certainly cannot fight simultaneous wars in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

We know when politicians, and even dictators, feel intolerable pressure because their economies are imploding and the natives are growing restless, angrier, and hungrier, they always follow the same playbook – distract the masses by giving them an foreign enemy, other than themselves. If these tariff wars do not de-intensify, global wars will begin and intensify until clear winners and losers are determined. That’s how it rolls in a Fourth Turning.

At the three month point of his presidency, Trump has purposefully created chaos as a tool to try and reverse decades of corruption, treason, and destruction. He has signed 130 executive orders, as the legislative branch of government has become inconsequential and toothless. Presidents now attempt to rule by dictate, bypassing Congress, unless forced to seek their permission. The left calls Trump a dictator, but they didn’t call Biden a dictator when he signed 160 executive orders, or Obama with 277 executive orders, or Clinton with 364 executive orders.

It’s the way the game is played, so every time the other party takes over, they reverse the executive orders of the previous administration. That is no way to run a country, but it is a way to run a banana republic circling the drain. While the bozos in congress are enriched for doing whatever they are instructed to do by whichever billionaires installed them, the judicial branch has now seized the most power of the three branches, under the guise of a legal system which no longer has a basis in the U.S. Constitution or Bill of Rights.

Treasonous judges (Boasberg) have been positioned by the Deep State and their billionaire puppet masters (Soros, Gates) to wage a lawfare war against anyone who defies the lucrative and corrupt status quo or attempts to reverse illegal actions taken by previous politician puppets (Biden, Obama) using executive orders and disregarding the Constitution. An entire establishment of corrupt district attorneys, judges, law firms, and fake NGOs are tasked with stopping everything Trump and his cabinet attempt to do which would benefit the average American, make the country safer, root out corruption, and enhance the financial condition of a country drowning in debt.

Judges blocking deportation of illegals, the firing of useless government drones, the defunding of left wing organizations within the government (USAID, NPR, PBS) pretending to be impartial, cutting off federal funds for the largest far left universities where 95% of the faculty vote Democrat, and essentially anything Trump was elected to do by the majority of Americans, must be defied and destroyed if necessary. Arrest the judges and let them rot in the putrid dungeon cells in D.C. without due process, like they inflicted upon grandmothers and other innocent J6 protestors.

“The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.” ― Tacitus, The Annals of Imperial Rome

The American empire now exceeds the Roman empire when it comes to state corruption. And we all know how that ended. We started as a republic, decayed into a democracy, and we now live in a dystopian, delusional, debt fueled totalitarian oligarchy, being ushered into a techno-gulag while staring at our gadgets, addicted to toxic foodstuff, and oblivious to the propaganda and indoctrination being employed to control us. Pretending we can vote our way out of this is a fool’s game. They control all the levers (financial, political, legal, social, military, media). They have the money. They have the power. They have control.

They will not relinquish their wealth, power and control willingly, or non-violently. That’s a fact. I know there are varied opinions on whether Trump is actually playing a part in herding his followers into the techno-gulag, or whether he truly believes he can usher in a new golden age by defeating the deeply rooted Deep State quislings. I’m living through it, but I am treating it like I’m watching a TV drama, waiting to see how the next episode plays out.

Anyone with an ounce of critical thinking skills can discern all is not right in this world. The anger, vitriol, hate and violence being exhibited by the globalist loving left, fueled by Soros/Gates funding, is a precursor of the vicious conflicts which will mark the last five or so years of this Fourth Turning. To me, this Fourth Turning has delved into a battle between the globalist, totalitarian minded, new world order faction and a rag tag assemblage of libertarian minded, freedom loving, rational, decent, family oriented, frustrated, and heavily armed anarchists, who are being pushed towards their boiling point.

The pressure builds. The anger is welling up from the depths. Normal people, who just want to be left alone to live their lives, have been taxed into poverty at the point of a gun, raped by the relentless inflation purposely created by the oligarch banking cabal, forced to accept deviancy in public schools as normal, coerced into having a toxic gene therapy injected into their bodies in order to keep their jobs, and convinced by the media and their billionaire oligarch owners to become debt slaves in order to live the American dream.

The question is what action, event, or person will trigger the violent response, destined to occur in the foreseeable future. Two-hundred-and-fifty years ago this past week the British attempting to confiscate weapons from farmer patriots resulted in the battles of Lexington & Concord, triggering the American Revolution. One hundred and sixty-four years ago this past week Fort Sumter was attacked, triggering the Civil War. Eighty-six years ago, Hitler was preparing to invade Poland, triggering WW2.

The number of potential triggers domestically and internationally are vast. Internationally, Israel attacking Iran, the globalist tyrants in France, UK, and Germany provoking an expansion of the Ukraine war into WW3, or China responding to Trump’s tariff war by invading Taiwan, are all potential triggers for bloody conflict.

Domestically, there are also a myriad of potential triggers which could unleash a torrent of blood across the land. I know most normies and those ignorant of history believe that level of violence is impossible in this “age of reason and civility”. Assassination, firebombing, and swatting are now perfectly acceptable forms of “protest’ by the demented fiends constituting the left. If Trump was to be assassinated, that would most certainly trigger a violent response by his MAGA army of heavily armed adherents.

Trump’s frustration with the never ending lawfare tactics being used by his enemies and their captured politicized judges, is bound to boil over and lead him in the direction of martial law and the arrest of these judges and their puppet masters.

With the Supreme Court occupied by three moronic women with IQs below room temperature, and two supposed right leaning judges who clearly have been compromised by the Surveillance State, the courts can no longer be expected to make rulings in accordance with the Constitution. Therefore, a real Constitutional crisis is a certainty. When the rule of law has been annihilated and exiled to the annals of history, good men are forced to do bad things in order for future generations to stand a chance.

When the USD loses 11% of its value versus the DXY, and 39% versus gold over the course of 3 months, and the stock market plunges by 1,000 points on a regular basis, down 17% from its recent high, something is amiss. When gold goes up by 30% in four and a half months ($760 an ounce), it is a huge warning sign the system is coming unglued. Panic is setting in. The foreign countries Trump has been threatening are selling the USD.

Attempting to bully the world when you are the biggest debtor nation in history may not be a well thought out strategy. We are truly in a land of confusion. Is the Wall Street cabal tanking the markets to force Trump to back off on the tariffs? As average working stiffs see their 401ks vaporize for the third time this century, deal with the relentless inflation on the things they need to live (homes, rent, food, insurance, property taxes, medical), and observe no one being arrested for corruption, treason or being on Epstein’s list, their frustration, anger and impatience grows to the point where they are likely to blow.

I picture the opening scene of Falling Down, with Bill Foster, the average working schmuck, sweating, frustrated, and swinging wildly trying to kill a fly while trapped in a traffic jam. He snaps. Everyone has a breaking point. And I believe millions of normal peace-loving people will SOON reach their breaking point, pushed too far by their government, the media, bankers, and the billionaire globalist oligarchs pulling the strings. It will be up to people like you and me to make things right again. There will be no Superman or White Knight coming to save the day. We will see if we are up to the challenge.

Oh, Superman, where are you now?
When every thing’s gone wrong somehow?
Men of steel, these men of power
I’m losing control by the hour

I won’t be coming home tonight
My generation will put it right
We’re not just making promises
That we know we’ll never keep

Genesis – Land of Confusion

There are no guarantees this Fourth Turning has a happily ever after ending. Empires always fall.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 16:20

The 8 Narrative Fallacies That Drive American Politics

Authored by Allan Feifer via AmericanThinker.com,

We live in a world rife with narrative fallacies intended to herd Americans and other Westerners towards Marxism. 

Here’s a list of just a few of the fallacious narratives that drive politics to the left:

Poverty. 

The claim is that poverty has never been worse. The truth is that poverty is at its lowest level of all time. Global poverty has seen significant declines over the past two centuries, particularly in terms of extreme poverty. Most of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty two hundred years ago, but today, that figure has dropped to about one in ten people. This progress is largely attributed to economic growth and development in many regions, particularly due to American dynamism.

The Courts’ Role In Controlling Policy. 

Weaponized use of the legal system is now de rigueur today for Democrats. Republicans are all criminals, we’re told. In this way, what Democrats can’t win at the ballot box may now be effectively undone by the courts.

In a delicious irony, Letitia James (“No one is above the law”), the New York Attorney General, is facing allegations of mortgage fraud for falsifying records to secure home loans for a property in Virginia, which she claimed as her principal residence while still serving in New York. This juxtaposes against claims she made that Trump had overinflated the values of many of his properties in a first-of-its-kind civil fraud trial that ended with a $454 million judgment now on appeal.

Climate Change. 

Is it about science or control? One has only to look at Europe today, where believers in climate change are reducing farming, restricting choice in how people travel, and trying to electrify everything with scarce “Green” energy that does not contribute to base load capacity, all while trying to get rid of your pets in the name of saving the planet.

American Colonialism. 

Is America a slave nation and colonizer, or quite the opposite? Little is ever said about the massive internal struggle we had in righting the wrong of slavery, ending with what remains America’s costliest war, with perhaps 750,000 dead, 2% of our entire population at the time. That would be the equivalent of 7 million dead today. Don’t you think we’ve already paid a high enough price for our mistakes?

Income Inequality. 

America has the highest number of billionaires in the world; is that a good or bad thing? If you care about your own personal economy, it is best not to look at too many billionaires as a bad thing. Progressives don’t want you to know it, but the top 10% of taxpayers pay 76% of all income taxes, and the bottom half, less than 2%.

Universal (aka Socialized) Healthcare. 

Will people live longer, better lives with universal healthcare, or maybe not? America already has universal healthcare. It’s called Medicaid, and it has 79 million beneficiaries. However, on average, people of means live 14 years longer than Medicaid recipients. Could factors like lifestyle choices, environmental conditions, and prioritizing healthy living be more critical than government spending? The facts tell a revealing story of misplaced priorities.

Education. 

Is there a correlation between spending money on education and creating thinking and functioning citizens? The US ranks in the bottom half on educational attainment among the most developed nations while spending the most per pupil. Frighteningly, the trend line is flat to declining, the opposite of improving. Johnny can’t read, write, or do math anymore in a world dominated by those who can!

America as a Citizen of the World. 

Does the world need America to lead or step back and let the world run itself? This is the key question we may be most divided on today.

Globalism has been a cancer that benefits government and big business. However, isolationism is effectively the opposite of globalism, and it would see America isolated and cut off from markets. Receding from leadership would automatically cede control to the strongest nation willing to step up and replace us. Unquestionably, that nation would be China. This would be the perfect setup for our economic destruction or, more likely, confrontation leading to WWIII. Rational minds must find the right balance between globalism and isolation.

Most popular progressive narratives ultimately attack the central premise that is a prerequisite for prosperity: economic growth and development by profit-seeking capitalists. Progressives largely eschew our history of success in favor of an ever-larger government that effectively decides what kind of growth and development there is to be through laws, regulations, financial incentives, and/or coercion, i.e., a Command Economy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 15:40

Stocks Reverse Bessent Gains On Report "It May Take Months To Hammer Out Final Trade Deals"

Update (1315ET): Shortly after the Bessent headlines moved stocks higher, Politco reports, while The White House is closing in on general agreements with Japan and India to stave off massive U.S. tariffs, it “may take months to hammer out the final deals,” said one of the people, conceding, “these things are complicated.”

Worse still, the optimism on the initial Bessent headlines has been erased as his actual comments were far less hopeful:

• BESSENT: REBALANCING OF CHINA ECONOMY TOWARDS CONSUMPTION AND U.S. ECONOMY TOWARDS MANUFACTURING IN TWO TO THREE YEARS WOULD BE A 'HUGE WIN' - RTRS

• BESSENT SAYS CHINA NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE A 'SLOG', DESCRIBES CURRENT BILATERAL TRADE SITUATION AS AN EMBARGO -PERSON WHO HEARD JP MORGAN SESSION

And just like that all the gains are gone...

*  *  *

US equity markets were already ramping higher, as yesterday's massive short pile up reversed and transformed into a squeeze (and force out of underexposed systematic funds), when an 11:58am ET headlines from Bloomberg, suggesting...  well... the obvious, namely that the trade war with China is unsustainable in the long run according to Bessent...

• *BESSENT SEES DE-ESCALATION WITH CHINA, SITUATION UNSUSTAINABLE

... sent the US equities to session highs, up 3%...

...and reversing all of yesterday losses...

Started with a major short-squeeze...

The broad risk on move has sent the dollar higher, hitting the yen and euro, and pushing the USDJPY well above 141 (after sliding below 140 overnight) and the EURUSD has pushed to session lows, down 0.5%, while the US 10y yield is near its richest levels of the day, down 3bp. Gold is also sliding and was below $3400 after hitting a record high $3500 just a few hours earlier.

While gold is sliding, bitcoin topped $91,000...

Today's rally is already shaping up as the biggest since Trump’s tariff pivot on April 9. According to UBS S&T, money is flowing back into High Momentum {UBQQHMTM}, up 3.5%, with groups like M&A Banks {UBXXMABK}, up 2.8%, and AI Power {UBXXVOLT}, up 3.4%, benefitting. Some more notable flows:

• A risk-on rotation is visible in Volatility {UBPTVOL}, up +2.5%, versus Quality {UBPTQLTY}, down 1.4%. Lower quality pockets are bouncing back most forcefully with De-SPACs {UBXXDSPC} up 3.5%, and Low Quality Credit {UBXXCRED} up 3%.

• Tariff Losers {UBXXTTL}, up 2.8% stabilise, note the basket outperformed meaningfully during Monday's selloff in a sign of washed out positioning.

• Defence Primes {UBXXPRME} are down 3%, though note about two-thirds of the move is driven by Northrop after disappointing earnings.

Another reason for today's meltup is the reversal of yesterday's meltdown, as panicked systematic funds scramble to buy. According to Goldman's Cullen Morgan, the systematic macro rebalance has effectively been completed, with global equity length going from approximately an 8 out of 10 during the YTD/February highs to a 1 out of 10 currently, of $53bn and representing a short position from CTA/trend followers and 1-yr low lengths from risk parity style + VA vol-control products. 

As a result, Goldman now has CTAs as modeled buyers in every scenario over the next week and month.

 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 14:45

Putin Offers To Halt Fighting Along Current Front Lines In Ukraine: Report

In a huge development, President Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of ongoing efforts to work with US President Donald Trump toward reaching a permanent peace deal. This reportedly happened during ongoing dialogue with Trump's top envoys.

This is according to several sources which spoke to Financial Times, which wrote further in a Tuesday report, "The proposal is the first formal indication Putin has given since the war’s early months three years ago that Russia could step back from its maximalist demands to end the invasion."

"The Russian president told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, during a meeting in St Petersburg earlier this month that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv’s control, three of the people said," FT continues.

Via Sputnik/Reuters

The Kremlin side has not publicly acknowledged this, and so the breaking report should be taken with a grain of salt, given this contradicts Putin's public stance that Russia will never relinquish the four territories which were declared part of the Russian Federation after the Moscow-backed referendums of Sept. 2022.

However, if Russian forces did simply halt their advance based on an agreed-upon freeze in fighting, there would be portions of these territories still not under Russian military control.

The FT report goes on, "The US has since floated ideas for a possible settlement that includes Washington recognizing Russian ownership of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, the people added, as well as at least acknowledging the Kremlin’s de facto control over the parts of the four regions it currently holds."

All of this is being reported hours after Ukraine's President Zelensky said he has rejected the possibility of ceding over Crimea, after the Trump administration reportedly offered the 'gift' to Putin of US recognition of Russian sovereignty over the strategic peninsula and home to the Russian navy's Black Sea fleet.

According to Ukrainian media:

Ukraine will not legally recognize Russia's occupation of Crimea under any circumstances, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a briefing in Kyiv on April 22.

"There is nothing to talk about. This violates our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine," Zelensky told reporters.

Zelensky added, "As soon as talks about Crimea and our sovereign territories begin, the talks enter the format that Russia wants — prolonging the war – because it will not be possible to agree on everything quickly."

Kiev has also recently accused Moscow of using negotiations as a smokescreen while in actuality prolonging the war, also coming off the 30-hour Eastern truce, which saw both sides accuse the other of many violations.

The Financial Times acknowledged this possibility, and the fact that Moscow is in the driver's seat related to any potential settlement that would end the conflict, in the following:

But European officials briefed on US efforts to end the war cautioned that Putin would probably use the apparent concession as bait to lure Trump into accepting Russia’s other demands and forcing them on Ukraine as a fait accompli. "There is a lot of pressure on Kyiv right now to give up on things so Trump can claim victory," one of them said.

The reality remains that if Zelensky can't so much as admit that Crimea will be permanently in Russia's hands, with no hope of Kiev ever getting it back, the prospect of a peace settlement happening anytime soon seems very remote.

But clearly Moscow is seeking to show itself willing to compromise by these overtures, but whether there's much substance or genuineness behind the offer to halt all frontline fighting is another question. At the moment, at least 99.5% of Kursk territory is back in Russia's control. Russia's military also still continues to advance in remaining parts of Donetsk still held by Ukraine, but slowly and village by village.

*  *  *

Top products last week at ZeroHedge Store:

- ZeroHedge Waxed Canvas Hat

- ZeroHedge Shirt

- IQ Biologix Astaxanthin (extremely potent anti-inflammatory)

- ZeroHedge Multitool

- Anza SWAT Micarta Blued (made in the USA)

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 14:40

'Soft' Data Slaughter Continues As Richmond Fed Manufacturing New Orders Expected To Be The Worst Ever...

In yet more confirmation that propaganda works, two 'soft' data surveys this morning signal the end of the world is imminent... and it's worse than it's ever been before.

First, we saw The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey plunge to -42.7 (in April) from -32.5 with current conditions and six-month-forward expectations at their worst levels since the peak of the COVID lockdowns...

Under the hood, Sales and CapEx expectations tumbled while Prices Paid soared to two year highs...

Simply put, firms remained pessimistic and continue to expect declines in activity over the next six months at their own firms and in the region.

The same - but worse - picture was evident with The Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Activity survey which tumbled to -13 (-7 exp) with overall Business Conditions plummeting to -30 - just shy of the lowest levels since the COVID lockdowns...

But, under the hood, it was expectations for New Orders that too the proverbial biscuit, collapsing to the worst levels in history... worse than at the very peak of global supply chain closure during the COVID lockdowns!!!

And Prices Paid are also soaring for Richmond Manufacturers...

And so, the trend continues lower in 'soft' data and higher in 'hard data'...

The question is - will we see a replay of Q2 2024 (where 'hard' data caught down to 'soft') or Q2 2023 (where 'hard' data kept rising and 'soft' data finally shrugged off the sentiment cloud)?

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 14:20

Gold-Backed Vs USD-Backed Stablecoins: Key Differences

Authored by Dilip Kumar Patairya via CoinTelegraph.com,

What are gold-backed stablecoins, and how do they work?

Gold-backed stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to physical gold reserves and designed to maintain a stable value. The concept of gold-backed digital currencies dates back to the early days of cryptocurrency, with developers aiming to create a reliable store of value. 

Each gold-backed stablecoin represents a specific quantity of gold. For instance, one token might be linked to 1 troy ounce of gold. A troy ounce is a unit of weight used explicitly for weighing precious metals like gold, silver and platinum; it is equal to 31.1034768 grams. 

A third party typically holds the gold reserves to ensure security and transparency. The issuing entity is responsible for maintaining an equivalent amount of physical gold for every token in circulation. 

The token’s price remains closely aligned with the market value of gold. Buyers pay gold's spot price for a token. Similarly, if the stablecoin fails, the tokenholders can redeem their tokens for the gold. Practically, the gold is liquidated for electronic fiat transfers.

Regulators classify gold-backed stablecoins as commodity-backed stablecoins or asset-referenced tokens (ARTs), depending on jurisdiction. Examples of gold-backed stablecoins include Tether Gold , Paxos Gold PAXG and Alloy (aUSDT).

Did you know? On April 1, 2025, Tether Gold (XAUT) traded at $3,165. Its market capitalization was about $780.3 million, with a daily trading volume of $11.03 million.

Advantages of gold-backed stablecoins

Gold-backed stablecoins combine the stability of gold with the flexibility of digital assets. Their blockchain-based nature offers benefits beyond traditional paper gold. 

Here are a few advantages of gold-backed stablecoins:

• Flexible alternative to physical gold: Gold-backed stablecoins function as blockchain-based representations of gold, offering a more efficient and flexible alternative to holding physical bullion. 

• Instant global trading: Unlike traditional gold ownership, these tokens can be stored in cryptocurrency wallets from which you can transfer instantly and trade globally with a nominal transactional fee.

• Access to DeFi applications: They also enable decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, expanding their usability beyond traditional gold investments.

• Better security: Physical gold is vulnerable to theft, loss and damage. Gold-backed stablecoins, stored on blockchain networks, can be more secure.

• Programmability: Gold-backed stablecoins are programmable because they exist on blockchain networks such as Ethereum. This allows them to interact with smart contracts and work with decentralized apps (DApps).

• Divisibility: Splitting physical gold or even paper gold is challenging. However, you can split a single token into several decimal places, which can be recorded on the blockchain.

• Make gold more accessible: Gold-backed tokens enable you to easily access gold. An ounce of gold may be expensive, but you can easily buy 0.001 of a token. 

• Interoperability: When you release a token on a widely used network like Ethereum, it is instantly operable with DApps, DeFi platforms and wallets supported by the network.

Diversification of funds: Investing in gold-backed stablecoins enables you to diversify your funds. It is a unique type of asset that protects you against currency value drops.

What are USD-backed stablecoins, and how do they work?

USD-backed stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to the US dollar. Each token is typically backed by an equivalent amount of US dollars or cash-equivalent assets held in reserve by a financial institution or trust.

For every USD-backed stablecoin issued, the issuing entity must maintain a corresponding reserve amount to guarantee its value. This ensures that holders can always redeem their tokens for an equivalent dollar amount. Examples of USD-backed stablecoins are Tether, USD and Binance USD (BUSD), all of which are used in trading, payments and DeFi.

You can buy and sell stablecoins through crypto exchanges like Binance or Coinbase. To purchase, create an account, complete verification, deposit fiat or crypto and choose a stablecoin such as USDt or USDC. To sell, go to the trading section, select your stablecoin, and exchange it for fiat or another crypto. Some wallets and peer-to-peer (P2P) exchanges also support stablecoin trading.

Did you know? The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulations (MiCA) have forced crypto exchanges to delist USDT and other non-compliant stablecoins, resulting in a growing market for Euro-backed stablecoins. USDC continues to be a prominent USD alternative in the region.

Advantages of USD-backed stablecoins

USD-backed stablecoins offer several advantages, making them a critical part of the crypto ecosystem. By combining the reliability of fiat currency with the efficiency of blockchain, USD-backed stablecoins play a vital role in digital finance. 

Here are a few advantages of USD-backed stablecoins:

• Steady value: Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies, which experience high volatility, stablecoins maintain a steady value, making them an ideal unit for payments, particularly in exchange for goods and services.

• Liquidity and accessibility: USD-backed stablecoins are widely accepted across crypto exchanges, payment platforms and DeFi applications. This allows traders to move funds quickly between assets without converting crypto back to fiat currency, reducing transaction costs and delays.

• Transparency: Issuers generally provide regular audits and reports on their reserves, which enables users to verify that actual USD holdings back each token. This transparency builds trust among users, issuers and regulators.

• Fast, low-cost international payments: Operating on blockchain networks, USD-backed blockchain networks facilitate fast, low-cost international payments without relying on traditional banking systems. This makes them a preferred option for remittances and cross-border trade.

• Safe haven during market downturns: USD-backed stablecoins offer stability during periods of market volatility. Investors and traders often convert volatile crypto holdings into stablecoins to protect their value without exiting the crypto market entirely.

Still, please note that stablecoins may depeg occasionally because of several macro and microeconomic factors. 

Macro factors include changes in economic conditions, such as inflation or an increase in interest rates. Micro variables involve differences in market conditions, such as changes in the underlying collateral and problems with liquidity. 

When Silicon Valley Bank failed in March of 2023, the USDC stablecoin deviated from its peg because $3.3 billion of its reserves were held there.

Did you know? Stablecoins are of four types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, algorithmic and commodity-collateralized. Algorithmic stablecoins have gradually gone out of favor.

Key differences between gold-backed and USD-backed stablecoins

Gold-backed and USD-backed tokens are stablecoins, yet they differ in several ways. This comparison explores the fundamental differences, focusing on their backing assets, price stability, liquidity, adoption and primary use cases:

Backing asset: Physical gold vs fiat reserves

Gold-backed and USD-backed stablecoins differ primarily regarding the collateral that supports their value. Gold-backed stablecoins are tied to physical gold, usually at a fixed ratio, while some USD-backed stablecoins are backed by a reserve of US dollars, short-dated and cash deposits.

Price stability: Long-term vs short-term

The value of gold-backed stablecoins fluctuates depending on the market price of gold, which can experience short-term volatility but tends to appreciate over the long run. USD-backed stablecoins maintain a 1:1 peg to the dollar, ensuring more predictable short-term stability. Their value remains steady unless external factors, such as regulatory changes or mismanagement of reserves, impact the peg. 

Liquidity and adoption: Use of USD-backed in DeFi applications

USD-backed stablecoins are more liquid and widely accepted in the crypto ecosystem, including exchanges, payment systems and DeFi applications. They are frequently used for trading and lending. Moreover, many countries in Latin America, such as Bolivia, have adopted USDC for payments. Gold-backed stablecoins, while useful for preserving value, are less commonly integrated into DeFi protocols due to low liquidity concerns.  

Use cases: Value storage 

Gold-backed stablecoins serve as a hedge against inflation, appealing to investors seeking growth. USD-backed stablecoins are preferred by investors seeking stability and value storage. USD-backed stablecoins are used for everyday transactions, trading and financial services, thanks to instant liquidity and ease of use.

Regulatory considerations: Compliance

Gold-backed stablecoins and fiat-backed stablecoins differ in regulation due to their underlying assets. For instance, specific regulations such as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) and the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act have emerged in the US for USD-backed stablecoins. However, no specific regulations exist for gold-backed stablecoins as of March 31, 2025, though they are expected to adhere to the usual banking and financial regulations.

Can gold-backed stablecoins surpass USD-backed coins in adoption?

Two factors favoring gold-backed stablecoins are their inflation-resistant properties and long-term stability. As Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser points out, gold enjoys greater global trust than the US dollar, particularly among nations with strained relations with the US. 

But is this enough for gold-backed stablecoins to get ahead of its more celebrated competitor?

USD-backed stablecoins, often under scrutiny in the days of the Biden administration, are now enjoying the support of the US government headed by President Donald Trump. The current dispensation views USD-backed stablecoins as a potent tool to maintain the status of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. While the Trump administration has been crypto-friendly since it took over, its support of the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act, which await Congressional approval, is further testimony of this approach.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has emphasized stablecoins as a strategic tool for sustaining the dollar’s reserve currency status. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has echoed this sentiment, supporting stablecoins as a means to uphold US dollar hegemony.

Still, countries including Russia, China and Iran, arch-rivals of the US, might prefer gold-backed stablecoins over USD-backed stablecoins because the bullion-powered coins may help them limit the influence of the US dollar. According to Keiser, China and Russia collectively hold around 50,000 tons of gold, more than officially reported. If true, this gold could be used to roll out gold-backed stablecoins.

If gold-backed stablecoins gain wider adoption, they could challenge the US government’s efforts to maintain dollar dominance through stablecoins. To that end, stablecoin issuer Tether introduced Alloy (aUSDT) in June 2024, a gold-backed digital asset tied to Tether Gold (XAUT), a token representing claims on physical gold. 

Gold-backed stablecoins resemble the gold-backed US dollar before 1971. That was the year when President Richard Nixon abolished the convertibility of the US dollar to gold. XAUT has enjoyed a 15.7% price increase year-to-date, suggesting the growth potential of the bullion-backed stablecoins.

While gold-backed stablecoins present a compelling alternative, the battle for dominance between gold and USD-pegged stablecoins remains ongoing, influenced by geopolitical factors, financial policies, and market demand.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 14:00

Buyers Strike Arrives: Foreign Demand For 2Y Treasury Auction Craters To 2 Year Low

For much of April, and certainly following the vomit-inducing surge in 10Y yields two weeks ago, the biggest question in the market has been whether China is dumping their roughly $1 trillion in treasuries. And while we won't know until June when the April TIC data hits (and even then the data is at best mixed), moments ago we found something just as important: the Chinese are certainly no longer rushing to buy US paper, something we learned following today's 2Y auction which saw a dramatic plunge in Indirect (i.e. foreign) demand.

Let's back up.

Today's $69 billion auction priced at a high yield of 3.795%, down from 3.984% last month and the lowest since last September. It also tailed the 3.789% When Issued by 0.6bps, this was the first tail since January and the biggest tail since October.

But while the small tail could be glossed over, the first sign of trouble was today's bid to cover which slumped from  2.66 to 2.52, the lowest since October, and below the six-auction average of 2.64.

But things really went off the rails when looking at the internals, where unlike the recent set of 3/10/30 auctions which saw Direct bids collapse, the Direct award in today's 2Y was solid, in fact at 30.1%, it was one of the highest on record. The problem is that the surge in Directs came at the expense of a plunge in Indirects, or foreign buyers, which tumbled to a two year low. As shown below, the April Indirect takedown was just 56.2%, the lowest since the depth of the bank bailout crisis in March 2023.

in other words, while Indirect demand was strong 2 weeks ago, it has since collapsed, and if drops another 10-20% lower, the Fed may have no choice but to restart QE to provide what it is explicitly supposed to do: be a Buyer of Last Resort backstop to the US treasury.

Finally, with surging Directs, and plunging Indirects, Dealers ended up holding on to 13.7%m above last month's 10.7%, and modestly above the recent average of 11.6% if hardly an outlier print.

Overall, this was a very mediocre - at best - auction, but it could have been far worse if Directs had not stepped in to fill the void left by the suddenly buyer's strike from Indirects, i.e., foreigners, i.e., China.

So keep a close eye on the week's remaining coupon auctions: unlike two weeks ago when all eyes were on the Directs, we are finally down to brass tacks, and keep a close eye on the only metric that matters: whether foreigners are finally done funding the trillions and trillions of US debt, leaving only the Fed's QE as an option.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 13:48

Goldman Finds First Solar "Well-Positioned" To Benefit From US Tariffs On Asian Panel Producers

With the Trump administration preparing to impose new tariffs on U.S. solar imports from four Southeast Asian nations, Goldman analysts see Arizona-based First Solar as the top beneficiary, calling it "the leading U.S. panel manufacturer best positioned to gain from escalating trade protections."

The U.S. Commerce Department announced the new tariffs on Monday, stemming from a year-long trade investigation. The investigation found that solar manufacturers in Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand benefited from government subsidies that dumped low-cost panels into the U.S. market, undercutting domestic producers and harming the American solar manufacturing industry. 

Cheap solar panels from Cambodia could face tariffs as high as 3,521%, mainly due to non-cooperation by solar manufacturers targeted in the U.S. investigation, which began under the Biden-Harris administration. Chinese manufacturer Jinko Solar's panels produced in Malaysia are set to be hit with a 41% tariff, while Trina Solar's products from Thailand face duties of 375%.

"This is a decisive victory for American manufacturing," said Tim Brightbill, partner at Wiley Rein and lead counsel for the coalition of solar companies that pursued the case, which Bloomberg quoted. 

Brightbill said the findings in the new report confirm "what we've long known: that Chinese-headquartered solar companies have been cheating the system, undercutting US companies and costing American workers their livelihoods." 

Goldman analysts Brian Lee, Nick Cash, and Tyler Bisset told clients that First Solar (FSLR) is the big "winner" here...

"Within our coverage of solar panel manufacturers, we continue to view FSLR as the main beneficiary from any incremental tariffs. As the leading solar manufacturer within the U.S., the company could be well positioned to raise ASPs," the analysts said. 

FSLR shares are up 7% in premarket trading. As of Monday's close, shares were -31% on the year and down more than 58% since peaking around $300 a share last June. 

Among other movers in the space: Sunnova Energy +5.6%, SolarEdge Technologies +3%, Array Technologies +1.7%, and Enphase Energy +1.2%.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 13:40

Container Orders Plummet - Trade Deals Now Or Economic Depression Soon

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Global container booking volumes fell by 49% between the last week of March and the first week of April 2025, according to Freight Waves. Imports from China to the United States collapsed by 64%, with imports of apparel and textiles declining by a whopping 59% and 57%, respectively. The figures coming from shipping companies are worse than those seen during the Covid-19 crisis.

These alarming figures suggest that importers are unwilling to accept higher prices in the middle of a tariff war, that exporters cannot simply choose to move their products elsewhere easily, and that the excess capacity in many sectors is much larger than initially expected.

No one wants to accept the cost of tariffs, and this means that the only option for the economies with elevated productive overcapacity is to negotiate a trade deal, and quickly, or face an economic depression.

The mainstream view about tariffs was that United States consumers would pay the entire negative impact. This news suggests otherwise. The purchasing power of importers is higher than expected. 

The number of order cancellations is so large that ports in China have had to take emergency measures to address the challenges created by piles of unsold containers.

The negative impact is enormous on ports, as fees plummet, but we cannot forget the dramatic effect on producers with excess capacity. Many global exporters are going to face bankruptcy if no trade deal is reached due to insufficient working capital.

In the European Union, leaders are concerned that the trade war between the United States and China will bring a flood of cheap products from China that could endanger local producers and create a significant economic problem.

Many exporters are facing a harsh reality: They cannot sell their products if they don’t export them to the United States, and the importers are not going to accept higher prices due to tariffs.

The reason why exporters cannot pass the cost of tariffs to United States consumers is because most of the products they delivered to America were only attractive because they were exceedingly cheap. When prices rise, demand decreases significantly. The tariff war has shown that demand is not inelastic.

The collapse in container orders proves Menger’s imputation theory. Output prices determine factor prices, not the other way around.

The unsustainable state of global shipping will compel countries to expedite trade agreements with the United States, failing which they risk a cascade of economic collapses within their business structures.

The slump in container orders proves that United States importers are not going to accept any price, that excess capacity in the main retail sectors is enormous, and that there is no straightforward alternative for American consumers.

If you believed that other countries would hesitate to negotiate trade agreements with the United States, you need to reconsider.   The American consumer loves cheap products but does not want the same goods at twice the price.

The United States economy may suffer a contraction due to this sudden slump in imports, but the consequences are much larger for the exporter nations.

The outcome is not positive for any country, so there is only one choice to make: negotiate or lose. If countries fail to establish significant trade agreements with the United States in the near future, their retailers are likely to face a severe working capital crisis.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 13:20

Wells Fargo Analysts Say Amazon Paused Some Data Center Lease Commitments

First came China's "Deep Seek" moment at the start of the year. Then TD Cowen's Michael Elias told clients Microsoft was scaling back data center projects in the U.S. and Europe. Shortly after, Goldman Sachs pulled forward its peak data center forecast to this year. Now, Wells Fargo analysts report that Amazon has paused some data center lease negotiations for its cloud division.

"Over the weekend, we heard from several industry sources that Amazon Web Services (AWS) has paused a portion of its leasing discussions on the colocation side (particularly international ones)," Wells Fargo analysts wrote in a note on Monday, adding, "The positioning is similar to what we've heard recently from MSFT." 

The analysts noted that Amazon is not canceling signed deals. Instead, they're digesting recent aggressive lease-up deals. 

"It does appear like the hyperscalers (big cloud companies) are being more discerning with leasing large clusters of power, and tightening up pre-lease windows for capacity that (would) be delivered before the end of 2026," the analysts said, noting that Meta and Alphabet-owned Google remain active in data center leasing. 

Kevin Miller, Vice President of AWS Global Data Centers, downplayed the Wells Fargo report in a LinkedIn post, calling the move "routine capacity management" and stating that there have been no recent fundamental changes to Amazon's expansion plans.

After the unveiling of China's ultra-cheap DeepSeek rival to ChatGPT in January, TD Cowen's Michael Elias, a month later, first reported on Microsoft data center order cancellations - followed by a more recent note from the analyst that specified the big tech firm has walked away from data center projects in the U.S. and Europe, amounting to a capacity of approximately 2 gigawatts of electricity.

"We continue to believe the lease cancellations and deferrals of capacity points to data center oversupply relative to its current demand forecast," Elias wrote in a note last month. 

Just a few weeks ago, Goldman's James Schneider, Michael Smith, and others revised their peak data center capacity forecasts forward to 2025 (from late 2026). 

As soon as the Deep Seek moment happened. We said this development will likely revise the forecast. 

And that's precisely what happened. 

The peak data center capacity forecast was issued in January. 

April's revision.

Meanwhile, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin that he did not forecast any cuts in data center construction. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 13:00

Nearly Half Of US Home-Sellers Are Offering Buyer Concessions

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

Nearly half of U.S. home sellers gave concessions to buyers in the first quarter of 2025, as rising housing costs, high interest rates, and a growing supply of homes have made buyers more cautious, according to a new report from Redfin.

The technology-driven real estate broker reported that 44.4 percent of home-sale transactions included a concession—such as funds for repairs, closing costs, or mortgage-rate buydowns—up from 39.3 percent a year ago and close to the record 45.1 percent seen in early 2023.

“When buyers have more options to choose from, it typically means they have more negotiating power,” the report stated. 

“Plus, Redfin agents report that many homes are overpriced, which often means they linger on the market, forcing sellers to offer concessions to find a buyer.”

The concessions reflect a shift in the housing market, which has become more favorable to buyers due to reduced demand and increased competition among sellers, the report stated. Listings have now reached a five-year high, giving buyers more options and leverage.

“Buyers used to ask for concessions to cover little things like repairs,” said Chaley McVay, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Portland, Oregon.

“Now they’re negotiating concessions so they can afford to buy a home. A lot of sellers are offering money for mortgage-rate buydowns, and I recently had one seller cover seven months of HOA fees for the buyer.”

McVay noted that many sellers are concerned about their net proceeds, especially those who purchased at market peaks in 2021 and 2022 and may now face higher mortgage rates if buying again. Concessions can help close deals without reducing list prices, she said.

Seattle saw the highest increase in concessions among major U.S. metropolitan areas, with 71.3 percent of home sales including concessions—nearly double the 36.4 percent rate a year ago. 

Portland followed with a 63.9 percent rate, up more than 14 percentage points. Los Angeles, San Jose, and Houston also posted notable increases.

In contrast, New York City saw the sharpest decline, with just 5.5 percent of sellers providing concessions, down from 21.2 percent. 

Miami, San Antonio, Tampa, and Phoenix also saw declines, as sellers in these markets have already adjusted pricing expectations due to prolonged cooling trends.

In addition to concessions, some sellers are lowering their asking prices or accepting offers below the list price.

Redfin found that 21.5 percent of homes sold in the first quarter went for less than asking and included a concession, while nearly 10 percent had a concession, a price cut, and a final sale below the original list price.

Economic uncertainty appears to be weighing on prospective homeowners as well. Approximately 13 percent of pending home sales were canceled in March, equating to roughly 52,000 canceled transactions.

This marks the third-highest March cancellation rate since 2017, following a pandemic-driven peak in 2020.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/22/2025 - 11:40