Zero Hedge

Polaris Reports "Alarming" 2025 EPS Outlook As RZR & ATV Demand Slide

Polaris Reports "Alarming" 2025 EPS Outlook As RZR & ATV Demand Slide

Polaris shares fell 6% in premarket trading after the company, known for producing ATVs, UTVs, jet skis, and snowmobiles, surprised investors with guidance for a 65% year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS for 2025, coming in far below expectations. 

Citi analyst James Hardiman told clients earlier that the downward revision was very "alarming," warning about President Trump's tariff battle with China could result in additional downward pressure for EPS for the full year. 

"While management suggested on their 3Q call that a good starting point for 2025 EPS would be flat with 2024, which was guided to $3.25, at the time, management officially initiated 2025 adjusted EPS guidance at just $1.10," Hardiman said, adding his team maintained a "Neutral" rating on PII shares. 

Polaris' Yearly Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Sees adjusted EPS about -65% from 2024's $3.25; estimate $3.06

  • Sees sales -1% to -4%

However, Polaris reported better-than-expected revenue in the fourth quarter, though sales fell 23% year-over-year to $1.76 billion. High interest rates deterred consumers from purchasing RZRs, Sportsman ATVs, and other offroad vehicles. 

Here's a snapshot of the fourth quarter: 

  • Sales $1.76 billion, -23% y/y, estimate $1.68 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Off Road sales $1.44 billion, -25% y/y, estimate $1.36 billion

  • On Road sales $180.8 million, -21% y/y, estimate $209.8 million

  • Marine sales $137.4 million, -4.1% y/y, estimate $118.3 million

  • Adjusted gross profit margin 21.1% vs. 20.8% y/y, estimate 21.3%

  • Cash and cash equivalents $287.8 million, -22% y/y, estimate $397.8 million

  • Adj. EPS 92c, estimate 90c

Covid bump ended in 4Q22

Polaris's YoY revenue growth is the worst since GFC. 

Bloomberg noted: 

  • For 2025, expects margin headwinds from negative mix, planned reductions in production leading to negative absorption in addition to the restoration of the company's employee profit- sharing program

  • Primary factors affecting fourth-quarter sales were lower volume due to planned reductions in shipments as we actively managed dealer inventory in a subdued retail environment

Shares are back to Covid crash levels

Bottoming fishing is a dangerous game... 

Several months ago, Polaris CEO Mike Speetzen warned that "consumer confidence and retail demand remained challenging."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 09:45

US Home Prices Surge To New Record High (Except In Tampa)

US Home Prices Surge To New Record High (Except In Tampa)

US home prices in America's 20 largest cities rose 0.41% MoM in November (far better than the 0.3% MoM expected) according to the latest data from S&P CoreLogic's Case-Shiller Index. That leaves prices up 4.33% YoY (up from 4.23% YoY in October) and the first acceleration in YoY price gains since March 2024

Source: Bloomberg

So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices...

Source: Bloomberg

Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates increased during that period, and dipped since (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, things do not end well...

Source: Bloomberg

Tampa stands out with the only price drop on a YoY basis...

In fact Tampa prices are at their lowest since Oct 2023...

However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag)...

Source: Bloomberg

Which suggests the pace of home price appreciation is set to slow further from here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 09:15

Chaos On Border: Mexican Cartels Fire At US Border Patrol Agents

Chaos On Border: Mexican Cartels Fire At US Border Patrol Agents

Chaos erupted along the US-Mexico border on Monday when cartel members opened fire on US Border Patrol agents. This incident came just one week after President Trump ramped up border security efforts, deployed the military, and formally designated cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. 

Late Monday night, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez wrote on X:

Earlier today, @TxDPS responded to assist the US Border Patrol after agents received gunfire from cartel members in Mexico while patrolling in Fronton, Starr County. 

DPS Drone Operators captured the gunmen fleeing Mexico due to military presence, & seeking refuge on an island between the US & Mexico.

The State of Texas will continue to monitor the area closely & use every resource available to prevent transnational threats to our law enforcement partners & the homeland.

Fox News' Bill Melugin commented on Olivarez's post: 

Texas DPS releases drone footage showing the cartel gunmen suspected of shooting at US Border Patrol agents in the RGV earlier today. The men can be seen armed with rifles, and appear to aim at the TX DPS drone.

One user on X, asked: "Where are our Marine snipers at?" 

On Jan. 20, President Trump designated Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations

More than 10,000 US troops are being deployed to the southern border to restore national security following globalist policies under the Biden-Harris regime. These policies resulted in a ten million unvetted migrant invasion into the US from third-world countries. 

Also, nationwide Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids have resulted in thousands of arrests of criminal illegal aliens so far, who will be deported to their home countries. Deportation flight began last week

Meanwhile, far-left corporate media, Hollywood elites, progressive think tanks, and radical leftist politicians are melting down over Trump deporting criminal illegal aliens. These folks are out of touch, failing to recognize that restoring national and border security was a very clear mandate given to Trump by a majority of voters.

Our view is that the designation of Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations sets up the pathway for US federal investigators to follow the money trail and disrupt cartel operations by sanctioning Mexican banks that wash their dirty money. Pain is likely coming for Mexican banks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 08:45

US Durable Goods Orders Tumbled In December As Boeing Bloodbath Continues

US Durable Goods Orders Tumbled In December As Boeing Bloodbath Continues

US Durable Goods Orders tumbled in December, according to preliminary data, dropping 2.2% MoM (vs +0.65 MoM expectations). Worse still, November's 1.2% MoM decline was revised down to a 2.0% MoM decline...

Source: Bloomberg

The large decline appears to be Boeing related as Ex-Transports, durable goods rose 0.3% MoM as expected with non-defense aircraft and parts orders plunging 45.7% MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

The value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment excluding aircraft and military hardware, increased 0.5% last month after a revised 0.9% jump in November.

The bottom line - who knows? Ignore the noise and all is well. But what if the noise is the signal?

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 08:41

Since 2018, Over 75,000 Canadians Died Waiting For Health Care

Since 2018, Over 75,000 Canadians Died Waiting For Health Care

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

If you think Canada has such a great nationalized health care system, you need to reconsider.

Death by Delay

SecondStreet reports 15,474 Canadians Died Waiting for Health Care in 2023-24

Today, SecondStreet.org released government data showing an additional 15,474 patients in Canada died in 2023-24 before receiving various surgeries or diagnostic scans. However, that number is incomplete, as several governments provide either partial data, or simply do not track the problem.

SecondStreet.org collected the data by filing Freedom of Information (FOI) requests across Canada. When the data collected is extrapolated across jurisdictions which did not provide data, the number actually nearly doubles, to around 28,077. These figures cover everything from cancer treatment and heart operations to cataract surgery and MRI scans.

“Canadians pay really high taxes and yet our health care system is failing when compared to better-performing universal systems in Europe,” said Harrison Fleming, Legislative and Policy Director at SecondStreet.org. “Thousands of Canadians across the country find themselves on waitlists — in some cases for several years -— with too many tragically dying before ever getting treated, or even diagnosed.”

Key Findings
  • At least 15,474 patients died in Canada while waiting for surgeries or diagnostic scans. This figure does not include Quebec, Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador and most of Manitoba. Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia only provided data on patients who died while waiting for surgeries – not diagnostic scans.

  • If one extrapolates the data provided across provinces and health regions that did not provide data, an estimated 28,077 patients died last year on health care waiting lists.

  • While some response data is vague, SecondStreet.org observed cases where patients died after waiting anywhere from less than a week for treatment to more than 14 years.

  • New data from Ontario Health suggests 378 patients died while waiting for cardiac surgery or a cardiac procedure.

  • Since April 2018, SecondStreet.org has identified a staggering 74,677 cases where Canadians died while waiting for care.

Another 15,000-Plus Euthanized

The National Review comments on Canada’s Socialized Health-Care Culture of Death

What a debacle. More than 15,000 people died in Canada in one year because they couldn’t access care in the country’s collapsing socialized health-care system.

But it gets worse. About the same number of people were euthanized in Canada in 2023. Some asked to be lethally jabbed because they couldn’t access health care in a timely fashion.

Free Stuff is Grand

Here are some comments to the National Review Article

  • Adjusting proportionally for population, that would be 239,104 deaths in the United States and would make “Unavailability of health care” the third leading cause of death in the US, after heart disease and cancer but ahead of such massive killers as accidents, COVID, and diabetes.

  • If the US adopted Canada’s approach to health care, where would Canadians go for their time-critical and technically advanced medical care? Living in the Great Satan’s shadow has its benefits!

I arrived at a similar 234,488 waiting deaths in the US if the results were similar.

Free stuff is grand, if you don’t die waiting for it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 07:45

Trump Says Microsoft In Talks To Purchase TikTok

Trump Says Microsoft In Talks To Purchase TikTok

Late Monday night aboard Air Force One, President Donald Trump told reporters that Microsoft is in discussions with the China-based tech giant ByteDance to acquire TikTok, according to a report from Bloomberg.

"I would say yes," Trump told reporters when asked if Microsoft would purchase the short video app used by more than 170 million Americans. 

The president continued, "A lot of interest in TikTok. There's great interest in TikTok."

Such a deal with Chinese owner ByteDance would avert a ban in the US. On Trump's first day in office, he signed an executive order extending the divest-or-ban deadline by 75 days. This extension gives ByteDance sufficient time to negotiate a deal with a US company. 

Last week, Trump told reporters he was open to X's Elon Musk or Oracle founder Larry Ellison purchasing TikTok. 

In recent days, AI startup Perplexity proposed a merger plan with TikTok, with the US government receiving half of the new company, a source told Reuters

Earlier Monday, Trump told House Republican leaders at the Trump National Doral just outside Miami that he previously pushed for a ban of the video app under national security grounds; however, he changed his mind due to pro-Trump content creators that flourished on the platform.

"We'll see what happens. We're going to have a lot of people bidding on it, and if we can save all that voice and all the jobs, and China won't be involved, we don't want China involved, but we'll see what happens," he told lawmakers, referring to TikTok. 

Trump noted, "I like bidding wars because you make your best deal. So if there's a bidding war, that's a good thing." 

And Microsoft confirmed. 

Shares of MSFT are muted in premarket trading in New York following the overnight report, as the DeepSeek AI fallout continues to overshadow the entire AI complex. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 07:20

Will Trump's Coal Comments To Davos 'Greenies' Revive US Miners?

Will Trump's Coal Comments To Davos 'Greenies' Revive US Miners?

President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency to boost fossil fuel power generation amid surging load demands on the grid via the 'Powering Up America' theme, including AI data centers, electrification of the economy, and re-shoring trends. The move by Trump underscores a massive policy shift from the Biden-Harris regime's 'green' policies that only acted as a 'throttle' on the economy, making US companies less competitive globally. Meanwhile, China ramped up cheap energy via an explosion in coal-fired power production.

"They can fuel it with anything they want, and they may have coal as a backup — good, clean coal," Trump said in a virtual appearance at Thursday's annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. 

Trump said that if critical infrastructure, such as natural gas and oil pipelines, gets "blown up," coal could be used as a critical backup energy source

He noted, "We have more coal than anybody," adding, "We have more oil and gas than anybody."

Trump is correct.

The US is the world's largest producer of oil and NatGas. Although it holds the largest coal reserves globally, it ranks fourth-largest coal producer, behind China, India, and Indonesia.

With Trump pausing the war on fossil fuels, the urgent need to ramp up power production through NatGas and coal will likely become a reality. This move aims to ensure a more stable transition to a clean energy future, including nuclear, while hopefully lowering energy bills for Americans after Biden-Harris' reckless green policies drove power prices sky-high. 

Trump's comments on coal sent shares of Peabody Energy, the top US coal miner, surging as much as 7.6% last Thursday—the largest intraday gain since right after the November presidential election.

Will Trump's comments produce a price floor in the low $18 handle, similar to the price action in 2023? 

Meanwhile, the Russell 3000 Coal Subsector Index climbed 4.2%.

"Trump's support for fossil fuels is well known, but coal didn't receive as much attention during this campaign as it did in prior elections," Bloomberg's Will Wade pointed out in a note. 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Javier Blas doesn't believe in coal's revival: "Respectfully, I disagree. In the US we know that ultra cheap shale gas has eviscerated the economics of coal-fired power plants. In America, the biggest enemy of coal is gas." 

With a quarter of US coal power plants set for retirement by 2040, the question arises whether Trump's push for stable and low-cost fossil fuel power generation will include a revival of coal. Ensuring cheap power for the transition to clean nuclear power is critical for the US and maintaining competitiveness with China in global markets.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 06:55

Zombie Foundations Threaten The Nation And All Of Creation

Zombie Foundations Threaten The Nation And All Of Creation

Authored by Michael Kochin via American Greatness,

As the tide of totalitarian wokeness recedes from the swamp, some of its ugliest and most toxic creatures will find refuge as employees or grantees of tax-exempt nonprofits. In our pluralist and democratic society, we must, to some degree, tolerate organizations with intolerant, inhuman, or wicked purposes, not least because we should have the intellectual humility not to judge every cause on our present knowledge. Who knows what valuable chemotherapy will come from the poison mushroom the Sierra Club is fighting to save?

True, we need, or at any rate must suffer, the plague of foundations—for fear of an unhealthy political monoculture in which our own miscues and misdeeds go unchallenged. That does not mean these foundations’ current powers and privileges should go unscrutinized. The Ford Foundation was set up in 1936 and now controls about $17 billion in assets, and long since passed out of the effective control of the Ford family. The Rockefeller Foundation controls a mere $6 billion but is so alienated from its roots in Standard Oil money that it is divesting from fossil fuels.

These foundations, and the endowed nonprofit sector more broadly, have been captured by a set of woke officers largely unsupervised by equally woke boards of trustees. They are globalist and frequently antihuman, but they benefit from tax privileges at the expense of the American people. The Ford Foundation has given hundreds of millions to Black Lives Matter and similar causes, and nothing to those whose homes and businesses were destroyed by BLM rioters. The Rockefeller Brothers Foundation pays anti-Semitic protestors on Ivy League campuses while claiming to be balanced because it funds the no less murderously intentioned astroturf organization, the Orwellian-monikered Jewish Voices for Peace.

We can’t and we shouldn’t make every rich man in America either blow his stash on drawing to inside straights and launching fast rockets or donate it to more humane causes. But we can require that all nontaxable foundations come to subserve the views of current donors, by requiring every entity in the nonprofit sector to spend down its endowment in a short period of time. At the moment, private foundations are required to spend 5% of their endowment a year. Given market performance, especially in inflationary times, that is far from sufficient to ensure that these foundations do not outlive the intentions of their donors and eat American civilization.

The Federal government should set a spending level sufficient to ensure that all nonprofits are disendowed in a reasonable amount of time. If a 20% required annual payout is not sufficient, we can try 25% or even 50%. If a foundation can’t find a way to spend that money within its alleged lawful purposes, no worries: it can just write a check to the IRS for the difference between what it managed to spend and the required payout. Our national debt is so large that Uncle Sam could swallow all the $1 trillion dollars or more assets of all the private foundations in America with barely a burp.

If the Feds want to be really cynical, the IRS can police the payouts to detect shifting of endowments through shell foundations while ignoring the looting of endowments by foundation executives. No great harm will come to the world from nonprofit vice presidents flying off to Tahiti in private jets with bags of loot and nostrils coated in white powder—we cannot say the same for the money these foundations have lawfully and conscientiously spent on the agendas they hold in good faith.

The Ford Foundation claims to have faith and fidelity to the American nation and pride in the broader American story and to serve, rather than subvert American democratic capitalism. Given its role in funding and promoting the hateful and mendacious 1619 Project, which sought to undermine our faith in America by teaching that Black slavery was the essential pillar of the American project, it is time to put that claim to the destructive test by watching it spend itself down to nonexistence.

The bloated nonprofit sector feeds off American wealth and abuses fundamental freedoms to undermine both liberty and prosperity. Time for some political chemotherapy...

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 06:30

Trump Effect: NATO Chief Pleads For Members To Quickly Step Up Defense Spending

Trump Effect: NATO Chief Pleads For Members To Quickly Step Up Defense Spending

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday spoke in Lisbon, Portugal alongside the country's Prime Minister Luis Montenegro. The Portuguese prime minister pledge that his country will meet its 2% goal by 2029, but Rutte emphasized this "will not be enough"

Of course, Rutte primarily had Russia in mind when he spoke the following: "We know that the goal of 2%, now set a decade ago, will not be enough to meet the challenges of tomorrow."

"To keep NATO strong, we must, however, continue to adapt and to guarantee our security in the future, we also need to ramp up our efforts now. That also means we need to spend more on our defense," he added.

Donald Trump with Mark Rutte, via AP

It has been confirmed that Portugal, a founding member of NATO, only spent 1.5% of its GDP on its NATO commitments in 2023.

White Rutte has been sounding a similar theme and warning since replacing Stoltenberg last year, these calls to go well beyond 2% spending will only amplify now that Trump is in office in the US, and is a reflection of Trump's own longtime insistence on much higher spending, at a bar of 5%.

The Trump effect has already borne fruit:

Lithuania and Estonia have become the first NATO members to pledge an increase in defense spending to five percent of GDP, according to a report by the Financial Times.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys and Estonian Prime Minister Kristan Michal confirmed their countries' commitment to strengthening defense capabilities in response to regional security concerns, the report said.

Newsweek and other publications have specifically cited pressure from Trump as well as preparation for his policies as the driving factor that made this happen.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys acknowledged, "Of course, there's pressure... from our main and biggest ally in NATO. We cannot ignore those messages."

But Trump's high bar of the 5% target is going to be a tall order for most NATO allies, so they can certainly expect to keep feeling the pressure over the next four years.

As we detailed previously, Trump recently proposed a more ambitious 5 percent goal, saying during a Jan. 7 press conference at Mar-a-Lago that "they can all afford it."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 05:45

Green Deception: Environmental Activists Serve China's Energy Agenda

Green Deception: Environmental Activists Serve China's Energy Agenda

Authored by Joe Buccino via RealClearDefense,

American energy independence is under attack from a shadowy alliance that threatens the foundation of our national security and economic prosperity. On the surface, we see radical environmental activists interrupting corporate shareholder meetings, blocking traffic, and vandalizing artwork. But behind these increasingly aggressive protests lies a more insidious threat: the Chinese Communist Party, which quietly bankrolls these same activists through a complex web of foundations and activist networks. Through dark money, China exploits environmental activism to undermine America's energy sector. This dangerous partnership between foreign adversaries and domestic extremists demands immediate Congressional action – including comprehensive investigations into Chinese funding of domestic American nonprofits and new laws protecting American energy infrastructure. The security of America's energy future hangs in the balance, and we can no longer afford to ignore this coordinated assault on our nation's vital interests.

The evidence of Beijing's strategic manipulation of American environmental groups has been mounting for years, but recent investigations have exposed the actual depth of these connections. Through a sophisticated network of foundations, consulting firms, and environmental organizations, the Chinese Communist Party has established multiple channels to funnel money and influence into groups working to obstruct American energy development. Beijing's influence becomes clear when following the money. For example, Climate Defiance is one of the most aggressive new environmental groups making headlines nationwide. More than half of their 2023 funding flowed through the Oil and Gas Action Network – an organization supported by the Energy Foundation, whose Chinese office maintains deep ties to the Chinese Communist nation and Chinese nationals with direct links to the regime. Similarly, investigations reveal several other prominent environmental groups receive substantial funding through organizations with documented connections to Beijing, including research institutes that coordinate with Chinese state entities and foundations that partner with CCP-controlled ecological agencies.

China's financial support of American environmental groups raises a crucial question that cuts to the heart of Beijing's strategy: Why would the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and most prominent financier of fossil fuel projects globally invest in funding American environmental protesters? The answer reveals a calculated effort to weaken American energy independence: these radical groups are unknowingly doing China's dirty work by targeting and disrupting America's vital energy infrastructure projects.

The numbers tell the story of China's true environmental priorities. China's greenhouse gas emissions are double those of the United States, while Chinese institutions lead the world in financing new fossil fuel developments. These facts expose an obvious truth—China's interest isn't in saving the environment but in sabotaging America's energy independence and economic competitiveness.

The tactical playbook of these Chinese-backed environmental groups has become increasingly aggressive and disruptive. Environmental activists have shut down a New York Times climate conference, declaring that "climate criminals should not be allowed in polite society." They've disrupted major sporting events, vandalized priceless artworks, blocked highways during rush hour, and damaged construction equipment to cause massive delays at pipeline sites.

These aren't random acts of civil disobedience – they're part of a coordinated strategy to weaken American energy infrastructure and drive-up consumer costs. The groups behind these actions openly admit their radical aims. The Climate Emergency Fund's executive director recently told The New Republic that movements "need to have a radical flank that is disrupting normalcy."

Even when these protests fail to stop energy projects completely, they succeed in driving up costs and causing delays that benefit America's competitors. Look at what happened in North Dakota, where Greenpeace-organized protests against the Dakota Access pipeline resulted in such extensive damages that the energy company is now suing for $300 million in losses.

These protests achieve China's goal: making American energy development so costly and complicated that we become increasingly dependent on foreign sources. While American companies battle protesters and legal challenges, China continues to expand its fossil fuel infrastructure at a breakneck pace.

The evidence suggests we're watching a sophisticated influence operation: China provides funding to U.S.-based foundations, which then channel money to radical environmental groups, who in turn deploy increasingly aggressive tactics against American energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, China races ahead with its own energy development, free from similar protests or disruptions.

The Trump administration should spur Congress to act swiftly to counter this threat. The Select Committee on the CCP must launch comprehensive investigations into the flow of Chinese money to American environmental groups. Americans deserve to know which protesters are funded by foreign adversaries. Second, Congress must pass the Safe and Secure Transportation of American Energy Act, strengthening criminal penalties for individuals who vandalize or disrupt American pipeline operations. This legislation will convey that the Trump administration will not tolerate foreign-funded attacks on critical U.S. infrastructure.

The First Amendment protects Americans' right to protest and voice dissent. But when foreign adversaries exploit these freedoms to advance their own strategic interests at America's expense, we must draw a line. The Chinese Communist Party has found willing – though perhaps unwitting – allies in the radical environmental movement. Their partnership threatens not just American energy independence but our national security.

As these groups escalate their disruptive tactics in the months ahead, remember who benefits from their actions.

When protesters shut down American energy projects and drive-up costs for American families, they're not just advancing an environmental agenda – they're advancing China's strategic objectives at America's expense. The choice before us is clear: We can allow foreign-funded extremists to sabotage American energy independence, or we can take decisive action to protect our critical infrastructure and ensure America's energy future remains in American hands.

Joe Buccino is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and the CEO of Vantage + Vox.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 05:00

Nissan Planning To Cut Up To 2,000 U.S. Jobs And Reduce Production By 25%

Nissan Planning To Cut Up To 2,000 U.S. Jobs And Reduce Production By 25%

Nissan plans to cut 1,500–2,000 U.S. jobs and reduce production by 25% as part of a strategic review, according to GuruFocus.

It aims to close a production line at its Smyrna, TN plant by April and another at its Canton, MS plant later in the year. The company is reviewing its EV production and investment strategy.

Spokesperson Shiro Nagai stated the reports are unofficial, and Nissan declined further comment. However, it wouldn't be an unreasonable move for the automaker which has struggled in recent years and is in the midst of considering a merger.

Recall back in late December we wrote that the struggling automaker was considering a tie-up with Honda that would make it the world's third largest automaker. 

Facing competition from EV leaders like Tesla and China's BYD, Japanese automakers are uniting to cut costs and accelerate their transition to electric vehicles.

Honda's president, Toshihiro Mibe, stated last month that the companies plan to form a joint holding company, maintaining their brands while Honda leads management. A merger agreement is targeted for June, with the holding company expected to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by August 2026.

There is still to study and discuss, Mibe said. He commented: “Frankly speaking, the possibility of this not being implemented is not zero.”

“We have come to the realization that in order for both parties to be leaders in this mobility transformation, it is necessary to make a more bold change than a collaboration in specific areas,” he added. 

AP writes that a potential merger between Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi could create an automotive giant valued at over $50 billion, helping them compete with industry leaders like Toyota and Volkswagen.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 04:15

Trump's 90-Day Suspension Of Foreign Aid Might Counterintuitively Bolster Washington's Influence

Trump's 90-Day Suspension Of Foreign Aid Might Counterintuitively Bolster Washington's Influence

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

One of the Executive Orders that Trump just signed suspends some foreign aid for 90 days, specifically “development assistance funds to foreign countries and implementing non-governmental organizations, international organizations, and contractors”, in order to assess their “efficiencies and consistency with US foreign policy”. It remains unclear at the time of writing whether the State Department’s subsequent “stop-work orders” will affect military aid to Ukraine so that possibility won’t be covered in this analysis.

Most foreign aid programs have been exploited to meddle in other countries’ affairs by funding anti-government and even in some cases anti-state movements that later orchestrate Color Revolutions. Even if they’re not taken to that extreme, they at the very least create problems for the implementation of those countries’ domestic and foreign policies by artificially manufacturing grassroots opposition to them, which manipulates perceptions of their popularity and can thus influence national elections.

Such was recently the case in Georgia, which fended off a nearly-two-year-long Western-backed but superficially “NGO”-driven campaign against the ruling party. This was officially waged in response to their FARA-inspired foreign agents law but was really punishment for them pragmatically refusing to sanction Russia and open up a “second front” against it in the South Caucasus during Ukraine’s failed summer 2023 counteroffensive. Georgia can now rest a bit easier for the time being.

The same goes for the many African countries like new BRICS partner Uganda who’ve been aggressively pressured by American-backed “NGOs” into accepting the normalization of LGBT+ in contravention of their traditional values. As put forth in Trump’s Executive Order, “The United States foreign aid industry and bureaucracy…serve to destabilize world peace by promoting ideas in foreign countries that are directly inverse to harmonious and stable relations internal to and among countries.”

Observers also shouldn’t forget about India after the US meddled in last year’s elections despite their strategic partnership. Russia gave voice to India’s concerns at the time due to the sensitivity of India calling the US out while the political process was ongoing, after which the ruling BJP accused the State Department and the “deep state” of meddling in other matters last month. While independently financed Soros still remains a problem, the US government shouldn’t be one for now, to India’s relief.

Less political meddling and socio-cultural engineering, at least for the next three months, will be much appreciated by all those countries that have been targeted by “NGO”-driven Hybrid War.

The emphasis is on less of these efforts as opposed to their complete freeze since some programs might have enough funds left to partially operate during the interim while the Secretary of State can issue waivers for specific ones at his discretion. Some might therefore continue in full but most will be adversely affected.

The end effect is that American influence might rebound in the Global South since a large part of why many of these countries started turning away from the US since the start of the century was due to it violating their sovereignty by funding “NGOs” that meddle in their affairs.

If Trump reforms the US’ international lending strategy to remove political strings on aid programs, including from those institutions that it controls like the IMF and World Bank, then this process would further accelerate.

His promised imposition of more tariffs might trouble some of these same countries, but it’s not the same as coercing them into making political and socio-cultural changes against their will in exchange for emergency financial aid, which ultimately risks destabilizing them and later advancing regime change. This potentially new approach could restore some of the attractiveness in partnering with the US by partially evening the odds vis-à-vis its competitions with China and Russia in the Global South.

In the event that this comes to pass, then those two would be compelled to offer better deals to their partners in order to prevent them from being enticed by the US into accepting whatever it proposes, thus possibly catalyzing a cycle of competition that works to those other countries’ benefit. For that to happen, the US would have to treat its partners more as equals and less as vassals, but old habits die hard so this can’t be taken for granted even if Trump appears somewhat (key qualifier) interested in it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 03:30

Tesla Hits Brussels With Lawsuit Over Tariffs On Made-In-China EVs

Tesla Hits Brussels With Lawsuit Over Tariffs On Made-In-China EVs

Elon Musk's Tesla filed a lawsuit against the European Commission in Luxembourg, challenging tariffs imposed on imported made-in-China electric vehicles. The lawsuit marks the latest friction between Musk and Brussels, further intensifying tensions following his public support for Germany's AfD party that has infuriated EU progressives. 

Financial Times reports that the European Court of Justice published confirmation of a lawsuit filed by Tesla's Shanghai subsidiary on its website early Monday. No further details were provided about the lawsuit, which follows similar claims filed by Germany's BMW and three Chinese automakers.

In October, the EU imposed anti-subsidy tariffs of up to 7.8% on made-in-China Teslas and as high as 35.3% on some Chinese EVs. These were in addition to the standard 10% import tariff for vehicles. 

The European Commission, the bloc's executive arm, concluded its anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese imports of EVs in 2024. The findings showed China's unfair support for its EV industry, which could produce cheaper EVs than EU automakers. The duties enacted would be active for five years. 

Transport and Environment data shows that Tesla accounted for 28% of the Chinese-made EVs imported into Europe in 2023. 

Tesla received the lowest tariff rate among all other EV importers because Beijing provided it with the least financial support. 

BMW wrote in a statement that EU tariffs on imported EVs "do not strengthen the competitiveness of European manufacturers," but instead "harm business model of globally active companies" and "limit the supply of e-cars to European customers and can therefore even slow down decarbonization in the transport sector."

BMW considers it "preferable that a political agreement be sought through negotiation. As stated before, it is important to avoid a trade conflict that only has losers in the end."

Meanwhile, Tesla's lawsuit against the bloc complicates things for Musk as he made a recent surprise address at the campaign launch for Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. 

The timing of Musk's support for the AfD and Tesla's tariff dispute with Brussels highlights the growing tension between the world's richest man and the woke progressives running the bloc. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 02:45

What Happens If Ukraine Collapses?

What Happens If Ukraine Collapses?

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via substack,

The situation is developing rapidly in Ukraine. Many of the key towns and cities to Ukrainian defence seem to be falling like dominoes. Colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces, Markus Reisner, has warned that the collapse of the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) is likely to be near. Developments on the ground are confirming this with, e.g., Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka falling in consecutive (rapid) fashion.

A “peace plan” has also surfaced, allegedly from the Trump administration. It basically lays out a path, where a truce should be declared by Easter (April 20) 2025 and peace by May 9. If this is the actual plan, I have to ask in what reality are the people who wrote it living in? The collapse of the AFU may be just days (the worst-case) or few weeks away. And then there’s this proposition:

Ukraine does not reduce the size of the army. The United States is committed to continuing support for the modernization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The idea that Russia would allow the U.S. to continue to create a proxy-force along its longest border in the west is ludicrous. For example, in the Paris Peace Treaties of 1947, the Finnish army was heavily sanctioned and it’s size diminished. No outside force was allowed to participate on its modernization or development, because the Soviet Union did not want to see another attack on their soil (Finland took part on the Operation Barbarossa, unofficially). Moreover, like I have noted in the Peace in Ukraine, there’s only one force in the world that can surveillance the line of ceasefire with any credibility: the U.N.

If this really was an actual (second) proposition of President Trump, it’s definitely better than the first one, but there’s still a long way to go. The main point to recognize is that the days of American military hegemony have passed.

To provide some additional motivation, I will now open the best and worst-case scenarios of post-AFU-collapse developments for everyone to read.

*  *  *

Update II 1/25/2025

It seems that I was a bit too hasty in my conclusions concerning the halt of U.S. military aid to Ukraine. First of all, the stoppage reportedly concerns only the part of the State Department, while most of the military aid (naturally) goes through the Pentagon. Zelenskyy has also just recently stated that U.S. military aid has not been halted (“thank God”). To note, the halt of foreign aid concerned all countries, except Egypt and Israel.

However, we should remember two things. In late-June, President Trump was presented a plan that suggested a halt of military aid to Ukraine, if it refuses to open talsk with Russia. Secondly, the Secretary of Defence, Pete Heghseth, was appointed (approved) by the Congress just yesterday.

These imply that the halt of the flow of aid through State Department could have been a warning. That is, it could have been used to signal President Zelenskyy that negotiations with President Putin needs to commence, asap. And, if this does not happen, actual curbs in the flow of funds through the Pentagon will be introduced.

Based on what I know from the negotiation strategies of President Trump,1 such a work-plan is plausible. Trump has also stated many times that he wants a peace to Ukraine, and it needs to start with getting the two sides to the negotiation table. “Blackmailing” Ukraine with military aid, will accomplish this, I am sure.

With the Kremlin, however, President Trump needs to pull out some (serious) carrots, not just sticks. Russians are progressing steadily in Ukraine and closing in on critical logistic hubs, most notably Pokrovsk. Russia is holding a serious upper-hand in the war, and further economic sanctions are a moot point (more on that later). I think everything needs to start with negotiations between Presidents Putin and Trump. Here’s the roadmap.

Let’s see what comes.

*  *  *

Update

Yesterday evening, we learned that the Trump administration halted almost all foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, for 90 days. This was reported by Politico, and it means that the clock truly starts to tick for the collapse of the AFU.

President Zelenskyy now effectively faces two options:

1. To start negotiations with President Putin.

2. Face an impending collapse or an unconditional surrender of the AFU, possibly leading to a military coup.

In other words, the stakes were just raised heavily. I am keen to think that President Zelenskyy will start negotiations, but first he has to change his decree making all negotiations with President Putin illegal.

In any case, things are in motion now.

*  *  *

Issues discussed:
  • The best-case scenario leading to truce and negotiations after the collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

  • The worst-case scenario leading to a regional war after the collapse of the AFU.

  • How do we get to the path leading to peace.

Ukraine has become something of a re-entry way to geopolitics for me. This is mostly, because I have made a complete 180 degree turn in my views towards the war between Russia and Ukraine. I started with an over-whelming support for Ukraine (see, e.g., thisthis and this), which turned into a suspicion in September 2022, and into a full opposition five months later. Now, I want to understand, what could happen in Europe, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) would collapse, a point which edges closer each passing day.

I present two, the best-case and the worst-case, scenarios for post-collapse Ukraine (and Europe). By collapse I mean a mass retreat of soldiers and battle-field commanders from the frontlines across the nation. Such an event may come about much easier than many think. This is because in a situation, where reserves are highly limited, like they are now in Ukraine, collapse of some sections of the frontline can come rapidly leading to panicky capitulations across the entirety of the frontline. When there are no amble reserves to strengthen the failing sections, there’s a risk of forces becoming pocketed in, forcing a wide-scale retreat. This is, e.g., what happened to Finnish Defence Foces in the Karelian Isthmus in early summer of 1944.

More precisely, I will sketch two plausible paths of developments after the defences of Ukraine crumble. I will not go into specifics of possible military developments, because that’s not my expertise. No one also can honestly state that they would know what happens after a collapse of the AFU, but we can speculate. Let’s dive in.

Post-requiem of the AFU: The best-case

The best-case scenario assumes that there will be no aim of the NATO Deep State or Ukrainian leadership to push the whole continent into a war. Based on what we have seen, the opposite seems to hold. Moreover, the best-case scenario assumes that President Trump is willing to accept Ukraine losing a large chunk of its landmass and to end the open-door policy of NATO. We at GnS Economics have recently warned on the possibility of a failure of President Trump in Ukraine, as it appears that he would not be willing to commit to such conditions.

These assumptions lead to 10 developments that could occur after the collapse of the AFU, in the best-case:

  1. Russian troops quickly progress to the banks of the Dnepr.

  2. Generals of the AFU hastily secure the defences of Kiev.

  3. The United Nations jumps into action with the Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire supported also by Russia.

  4. Russian troops halt their progress to the Kherson-Dnipro-Kiev -line (along the Dnepr).

  5. NATO halts all Ukraine/NATO attacks to Russian troops in Ukraine, by the order of President Trump.

  6. Presidents Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy agree on the terms of an U.N. monitored line of ceasefire along the Dnepr.

  7. Russia limits its military presence to ceded areas and evacuates attack systems to sufficient distance from borders (established line of ceasefire) of the remaining Ukraine.

  8. The EU and the US stop all deliveries of weapons and volunteers to Ukraine.

  9. The EU and the U.S. agree on an emergency economic support package for the (remaining) Ukraine.

  10. The neutrality of Ukraine is agreed as the starting point of peace negotiations including all the major parties: China, The EU, Ukraine, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and NATO.

Essentially, the best-case scenario mimic the developments and actions we would need to see to establish a (lasting) peace in Ukraine. At this point, this looks unlikely, which is why need to turn to the worst-case to understand what may come.

Post-requiem of the AFU: The worst-case

How could the situation develop in the worst-case?

  1. Russian troops advance rapidly to the Dnepr.

  2. NATO calls for imminent ceasefire and hails to send in a “peace-keeping force”, while announcing that Ukraine will be made member of the Alliance.

  3. Russian troops cross the Dnepr and enact a siege of Kiev with the troops advancing from Belarus, while Russian troops in the South advance on the outskirts of Odessa. President Zelenskyy flees to Poland to oversee the “resistance”.

  4. France sends troops to Odessa, while the U.K., in accordance with the 100-year Partnership Declaration, send troops to Lviv.

  5. Russia strikes Lviv with Oreshnik or with a tactical nuclear weapons destroying the U.K. troops.

  6. The U.K. declares war to Russia, and President Trump warns Russia not to escalate any further.

  7. Poland strikes Belarus, while sending her forces to Lviv.

  8. Russia and Belarus strike to NATO bases in Poland.

  9. NATO enacts Article 5 and starts a massive buildup of troops along its eastern border. Russia and Belarus responds with mobilization.

  10. A regional conflict forms.

NATO is yet not ready for a full military conflict with Russia, which is why the ladders of escalation end to “forming” of a regional conflict (on which more below). Naturally the sequence of events can also take a much darker turn with the 10 ladders leading into an onset of a nuclear war. There’s also the possibility that, when the imminent collapse of the AFU looms the Zelenskyy regime, with the help of the NATO Deep State, stages a false flag attack targeting either the NATO troops in Europe or a NATO country, blaming Russia. This would start a NATO-Russia war, or at least lead to widening of the conflict.

Conclusions

I have to say that I am not very optimistic on the prospects peace in Ukraine, currently. President Trump seems to be fixated to the old-dated view that NATO and the U.S. would hold a military upper-hand still. Developments in Iran and especially in Ukraine have already shown this not to be true.

Moreover, I worry on the growing military strength of Russia. Just yesterday, I learned that Russia has started to mass-produce battle-drones which are immune to electronic warfare. The story with Russian military development in a conflict is always the same. First, they screw up massively, then retreat, learn, regroup and strike with unmet fervor. During the past 90 years there’s only exception to this, the Soviet-Afghan war, which ended to the defeat of the Red Army and to the collapse of the Soviet Union (driving the defeat). At current time, I am rather certain that Kremlin seeks only peace. If the AFU and Ukraine become over-run, would that change? It probably depends on the scenario we end up to.

I honesty cannot conclude anything else from the actions and comments of some European NATO members than that the Alliance is seeking a pro-longed conflict with Russia. The likelihood of this grows with Russian military strength building up, because it will be met by NATO (eventually). It seems rather obvious that NATO is not yet ready for a pro-longed conflict with Russia, and the NATO Deep State, et al., may look to end the conflict in a way that would create fear and thus wide-spread acceptance in Europe for a re-armament. A false flag attack somewhere in Europe blaming Russia would suit this purpose well. Also, an unconditional surrender of the AFU combined with massive russophobic propaganda could also do the trick. When re-armament cycle gets going in Europe, wars result.

How long do we have, before the AFU collapses (or surrenders)? No one knows for sure, but most estimates put this in the range from months to a year. Yet, we have to acknowledge that this point can also arrive very quickly. Losses are massive and there are rumors of a mutiny building within the AFU. After the collapse, we would enter some very dangerous waters.

I dearly hope that President Trump changes his course in Ukraine rapidly.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2025 - 02:00

How A Montana Community Learned To Live With The Bomb

How A Montana Community Learned To Live With The Bomb

Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The landscape is stark and unforgiving, typical of deep winter in rural Montana.

The snow-covered Judith Mountains rise majestically in the distance, while vast fields of dormant wheat, hay, and barley stretch beneath a gloomy gray sky blanketed in white.

Ed Butcher, 81, peered through the cracked windshield of his red Honda all-wheel drive, which had been struck by a bird a few days earlier.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Allan Stein/The Epoch Times, Public Domain

At the end of an eight mile gravel road, two miles east of the family homestead in Winifred (population 174), he could see his destination.

The one-acre plot is secured by a chain-link fence, complete with surveillance cameras, motion sensors, and barbed wire.

On the fence hangs a sign that reads “Restricted Area,” warning that anyone who breached the fence could be subject to the authorized use of lethal force.

“This is it—the grand tour,” Butcher exclaimed as he parked the vehicle and stepped outside into the biting cold wind and tundra.

He pointed through the fence and said, “There’s the missile.”

Beneath tons of reinforced steel and concrete inside the Hatch Launch E05 facility, the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has remained on alert for a nuclear attack for 60 years.

In 1964, when Butcher was in high school, his father sold a one-acre plot to the Air Force for $100, allowing it to house this single missile with a nuclear warhead, sitting thousands of miles away from a potential target.

The Minuteman missile system is a powerful weapon system, developed in the late 1950s and deployed a decade later at strategic locations across the United States.

It was a groundbreaking development at the time, combining speed, mobility, and reliability to achieve nearly a 100 percent alert rate—two launch crew officers provide around-the-clock alert ability in the launch center, according to the Air Force.

The missile stands 59 feet tall and weighs 79,342 pounds. It can travel up to 8,700 miles at speeds reaching 15,000 miles per hour outside the atmosphere.

As a weapon of mass destruction, it can deploy up to three Mk12A nuclear warheads, each with a yield of 300 to 350 kilotons of TNT.

Ed Butcher walks around the chain-link perimeter fence surrounding a Minuteman III missile silo on his family's ranch in Winifred, Mont., on Jan. 8, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Each warhead is more than 20 times more powerful than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, which resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people.

Butcher, a former Montana legislator, recalled a period of nuclear brinkmanship based on the principle of mutually assured destruction when the Minuteman missile first arrived on the family ranch.

This was during the peak of the Cold War, following the Cuban Missile Crisis, which brought the United States and Soviet Union closer to nuclear war than ever before.

Everyone was anxious about a potential nuclear exchange, Butcher recalled, and “duck and cover” drills were routine in schools.

Despite the context, Butcher adapted to living near the missile. He never truly feared a nuclear attack on “Missile Country.”

Logic told him that the Minuteman III would be launched long before any Soviet missile could reach its target.

Butcher, a fifth-generation rancher with 400 to 500 cattle, remarked: “They'd be hitting an empty hole.”

The 12,000-acre cattle ranch has been in the Butcher family since 1913 when Ed’s grandparents first settled there.

Missile County

Fergus County, Montana, approximately the size of New Jersey with a population of 11,772, is home to 52 operational nuclear missile silos. Lewistown serves as the county seat.

The 341st Missile Wing stationed at Malmstrom Air Force Base  in nearby Cascade County. The base is one of three—located in Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota—that utilize the Minuteman III land-based missile system.

Butcher said that he had observed the Minuteman III missile outside the hatch at least once during scheduled maintenance.

A 341st Missile Wing Inspector General team member inspects a launch facility recapture exercise during Global Thunder 19 at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont., on Oct. 30, 2018. Beau Wade/U.S. Air Force

“I was counting cows out in the pasture,” and the security gate to the missile silo was open, Butcher said. “One of the cows got inside near the missile.”

Butcher said he entered  the secure area to fetch his cow. He was immediately confronted by an armed military guard.

“Sir, you can’t be here,” the soldier said.

“I own this place,” Butcher responded. “These are my cows.”

The guard persisted, so Butcher replied, “Then you chase her out.”

The soldier’s eyes got “really big,” Butcher recalled. “He looked at the cow. He looked at me.”

“He finally decided it was OK for me to come riding in. He didn’t want to chase after a cow.”

His father, who was a licensed pilot, would also check on the cattle from the air.

“He’d always turn before he got to the missile [silo],” Butcher said. “ He didn’t want to be flying over if they decided to set it off. That was the closest thing Dad had for concerns” about nuclear missiles.

“Other than that, he didn’t care.”

Three Legs of Deterrence

The Minuteman III weapon system completes America’s nuclear “triad,” which includes submarine-launched ballistic missiles and strategic bombers.

The Sentinel ICBM program is set to replace the 400 missiles and 450 launch facilities of the aging Minuteman III weapon system by 2038, providing capabilities until 2075.

In September 2020, the Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman a contract worth $13.3 billion to design and build the Sentinel program.

However, on Jan. 18, 2024, the Air Force announced that the project’s costs had reached a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach, which is when initial estimate thresholds are exceeded by 25 percent or more, triggering a review.

The cost of the Sentinel program is now estimated at $140.9 billion, representing an 81 percent increase from the program’s 2020 budget.

According to the Nunn-McCurdy review, the command and launch segment accounts for the majority of this cost growth.

In a statement, the Air Force indicated it is developing a comprehensive plan to restructure the Sentinel program, focusing on the root causes of the breach and establishing a suitable management structure to control costs.

“Our U.S. nuclear forces are ready, as they have been for decades, to deter our adversaries and respond decisively should deterrence fail,” said Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin in the January 2024 statement.

Airmen from the 90th Maintenance Group are responsible for maintaining and repairing ICBMs on alert status within the F.E. Warren missile complex, as they are one of three missile bases part of Air Force Global Strike Command, on Dec. 18, 2019. The Minuteman III, on alert at all three bases, replaced the Peacekeeper at F.E. Warren in the 1970s. Senior Airman Abbigayle Williams/U.S. Air Force

We face an evolving and complex security environment marked by two major nuclear powers that are strategic competitors and potential adversaries,” Allvin said.

“While I have confidence in our legacy systems today, it is imperative that we modernize our nuclear Triad. A restructured Sentinel program is essential to ensure we remain best postured to address future threats.”

Lewistown and Great Falls, 116 miles northwest, will be most affected by the Sentinel project in Montana.

The project will involve removing all 45 missile alert facilities from the missile fields and building launch centers in at least 24 locations.

It will include renovating all 450 existing launch facilities to a “like-new” condition.

The Sentinel project also involves the  construction of 3,100 miles of new utility corridors while using 4,900 miles of existing corridors and easements.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 23:25

House GOP Could Grant Concealed Carry Reciprocity For 22 Million Gun Owners Nationwide

House GOP Could Grant Concealed Carry Reciprocity For 22 Million Gun Owners Nationwide

Authored by Bronson Winslow via American Greatness,

House Republicans and President Donald Trump are sponsoring legislation to dismantle 50 years of Democrat-led firearm laws that have stifled concealed carry reciprocity in America and unduly burden nearly 22 million gun owners.

The Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act (H.R. 38) is backed by 120 House Republicans and would ensure consistent protections for responsible firearm owners nationwide while still respecting state-level laws and autonomy. President Donald Trump has expressed his strong support and readiness to sign the bill into law if it lands on his desk.

“Our Second Amendment right does not disappear when we cross invisible state lines, and this commonsense legislation guarantees that,” said North Carolina Rep. Hudson (R).

“The Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act will protect law-abiding citizens’ rights to conceal carry and travel freely between states without worrying about conflicting state codes or onerous civil suits.”

Much like driver’s licenses, concealed carry permits would be recognized across state lines, with individuals required to adhere to the laws of their destination state. The bill upholds state sovereignty by refraining from imposing a national standard for concealed carry.

Instead, it ensures reciprocity while respecting each state’s authority to define its own regulations. If enacted, this legislation would empower an estimated 22 million Americans to travel freely without fear of punishment under restrictive laws in states with stringent gun control policies.

Modern concealed carry permitting first began in Georgia in the 1970s under Democrat Governor Zell Miller. The Georgia permit process quickly gained traction across America, and many states entered into reciprocity agreements to allow residents to travel freely.

But that wasn’t the case in all states. Numerous blue states began to reject reciprocity with states that fostered strong Second Amendment freedoms—effectively creating a dicey road map for traveling gun owners.

"At every turn, federal bureaucrats and Washington Democrats are relentlessly trying to undermine the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding Americans,” said Kansas Rep. Tracey Mann (R).

“Our constitutional rights don’t magically go away when we travel across state lines, no matter how badly states like New York and California wish they would.

Alongside President Trump, pro-gun advocacy group Gun Owners of America (GOA) has endorsed the legislation, saying, “Congress has the opportunity to deliver the greatest legislative victory for the gun rights movement in a century.”

President Trump has already voiced his support. It is simply common sense for Congress to ensure that each state’s concealed carry license is valid in every other state,” said Aidan Johnston, GOA’s Director of Federal Affairs.

Stop Restriction Overkill

Many states across the U.S. enforce restrictive laws that hinder concealed carry permit holders from fully exercising their Second Amendment rights. Additionally, states often refuse reciprocity with others they perceive as having insufficient safety standards for issuing permits.

If enacted, H.R. 38 would prevent states like New York and California from barring law-abiding Americans from Texas or Florida from carrying concealed weapons for self-defense while traveling. However, while the legislation ensures reciprocity between states, it does not override or change the specific gun laws within individual states.

Yet even with enforced reciprocity, permit holders encounter significant challenges in blue states like New York, California, and Maryland, which enforce restrictive regulations that designate broad areas as “sensitive locations” where concealed carry is prohibited.

In 2022, the Supreme Court affirmed in the Bruen ruling that every American has the right to carry a firearm for self-defense. However, numerous blue states continued to impose restrictive measures—all while claiming they updated their laws to adhere to Bruen.

These states continue to restrict concealed carry in locations such as casinos, public libraries, museums, bars, and restaurants serving alcohol, entertainment venues, and even on private property without explicit consent—making concealed carry a nightmare even if nationwide reciprocity becomes a reality.

Moving Forward

The Constitutional Concealed Carry Act showcases the Trump administration’s willingness to assist law-abiding gun owners after four years of persecution under former President Joe Biden. However, it is only the beginning of what must be a broader effort to fully restore the freedoms the Left has strategically stolen from Americans.

As we look ahead to President Trump’s second term, it is crucial for the Supreme Court, lower courts, Congress, and state governments to reevaluate restrictive firearm laws, particularly those that unjustly designate vast areas as “sensitive locations” to undermine concealed carry rights.

President Trump has already expressed his commitment to signing this legislation, but this cannot be the end of the conversation. It must serve as the foundation for a larger movement to dismantle laws that unfairly hinder law-abiding citizens and to return power back to the people.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 22:35

How Widespread Is Holocaust Denialism?

How Widespread Is Holocaust Denialism?

On this day, January 27, 1945 - 80 years ago today - the Auschwitz concentration camp was liberated by Soviet forces.

At this milestone, with adult survivors of the Holocaust approaching 100 years of age, Holocaust remembrance is at a crossroads, as the generation which bore witness to the horrors of the Shoah is shrinking in size and forces denying or diminishing it grow more fierce.

 Number of Adult Holocaust Survivors Dwindles | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports that a new survey by the Anti-Defamation League shows that 4 percent globally deny today that the Holocaust happened.

This number was 5 percent among men and 5 percent among people between the ages of 18 and 49.

 How Widespread Is Holocaust Denialism? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

While in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, rates of Holocaust denialism were average, they were elevated in North Africa and the Middle East.

They were at below-average rates in Western Europe (1 percent of respondents).

However, many more respondents said they believed that the number of victims of the Holocaust had been greatly exaggerated.

This reached as high as a third of respondents in North Africa and the Middle East, 18 percent in Asia, 16 percent each in Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa and even 15 percent in the Americas.

The survey also asked respondents if they agreed with any out of 11 stereotypes about Jewish people and asked questions about the acceptance or rejection of Israel. It found that people had especially strong antisemitic beliefs in the Magreb states and the Middle East, but also in Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey.

The survey found that younger people were more likely to show antisemitic attitudes.

While the average country scored 26 out of 100 points in the survey in 2014 (with 100 being the worst result), this had changed to an average score of 46 out of 100 in 2024.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 22:10

Medicare Isn't Broke - Yet

Medicare Isn't Broke - Yet

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Medicare has a money problem. Or it will in about 10 years. It’s the sort of problem Dwight Eisenhower might have called important but not urgent, like a balloon payment on a mortgage or a roof that only leaks once in a while. Such problems are easy to ignore until it’s too late to fix them.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Yet anything costing $1 trillion a year will inevitably become urgent soon enough, and Medicare’s funding shortfall will demand attention and action by 2036 to prevent a crisis.

That’s when the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, which pays hospital bills for 68 million Americans, will be depleted, according to Medicare’s trustees. After that, the annual income for Medicare Part A will fall 11 percent short of expenses.

But that’s a decade away. For now, the HI Trust Fund has a surplus of more than $200 billion, according to the latest report. And Medicare Part B, which covers things such as doctor visits and diagnostic tests, had reserves of over $180 billion.

Medicare is not insolvent, but there is an increasingly large gap between the revenue generated by the program and its total expenses. And that requires an increasingly large transfer of cash from the U.S. Treasury to make the program work.

In 2023, revenue coming into Medicare through payroll taxes, premiums, and interest covered about 57 percent of the program’s expenses. The other 43 percent, about $43 billion, had to be paid from the government’s general fund. This gap between income and expenses has always existed, but it’s growing rapidly. By 2053, the general fund will have to cover fully half of program costs.

President Donald Trump, like former President Joe Biden before him, has promised to protect Medicare, though neither articulated a plan for doing so.

Medicare, which will have its 60th birthday in July, chugged along for decades without attracting much attention. Why is it now falling further and further behind expenses?

That’s partly due to the way Medicare was designed, and it’s partly a result of changing demographics, American innovation, and decisions that were made along the way.

It’s Not a Business

Medicare provides medical care for people who are age 65 and older, or disabled, or have end-state renal disease or ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.

Medicare is called an insurance program but it wasn’t designed to be fully self-sustaining. It has always operated more like a federally subsidized health payment program.

Medicare Part A, which pays for hospitalization, is the most like traditional insurance and the closest to being financially stable. The lion’s share of funding for Part A comes from a 2.9 percent payroll tax. The rest comes from a tax on Social Security benefits, interest on the fund balance, and premiums paid by some beneficiaries.

It’s a mistake to think of the HI Trust Fund as an endowment or a pension, according to Jon Kingsdale, an adjunct associate professor of health care policy at Brown University.

“It’s simply like a checking account, which is filled up by payroll taxes throughout the year and is drawn down by spending for hospitals and nursing homes and other facilities,” Kingsdale told The Epoch Times.

Like a checking account, the HI Trust Fund can reach a zero balance. The trustees predict that will happen in 2036. After that, the income it receives will cover only about 79 percent of Part A obligations.

Medicare Part B is a little different. Its expenses are paid through the Medicare Supplemental Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund, as are expenses for Medicare Part D, prescription drug coverage.

People who qualify for Medicare can opt into Parts B and D by paying a premium. Part B also receives some income from interest on the fund balance, and states contribute to support Part D.

But that income covers only a fraction of the expenses. More than 70 percent of the funding for the SMI Trust fund comes from the general budget. Every year, Congress estimates upcoming expenses, then adds money to cover the gap.

Increases in premiums have not kept pace with expenses, so the share paid by the general fund has grown larger.

When the HI Trust Fund is depleted, it will cause an urgent problem because the government currently has no legal mechanism for adding more money to it. But the larger issue is that the primary funding sources for Medicare are not keeping pace with rising costs, requiring the government to pay a larger and larger share of the nation’s wealth to keep the program going.

Medicare now consumes about 3.8 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, the total value of all goods and services produced. By 2048 it will be 5.8 percent, according to the Medicare trustees.

Three main factors are driving that.

Senior citizen Yoko Mitani waits for her prescription at Ballin Pharmacy in Chicago on May 3, 2004. Enrollment for the Medicare Drug Benefit program offering discounts on prescription drugs for senior citizens was made available today. Tim Boyle/Getty Images Demographics, Innovation, Medicare Advantage

Two population events coincided in the 20th century that resulted in financial pressure on Medicare. First, the 76 million baby boomers who were born between 1946 and 1964. They started to retire in 2011. That caused Medicare enrollment, which had been growing by about 500,000 a year, to add 1.3 million beneficiaries a year for the next 14 years.

Additionally, long before the baby boomers signed up for Medicare, the birth rate fell significantly. Americans have gone from having 123 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 at the height of the baby boom to having 56.1 births per 1,000 by 2022.

Taken together, those events created a situation in which fewer workers are paying the Medicare payroll tax compared with the number of people receiving benefits. When the program was created in 1965, the ratio of workers to beneficiaries was 4 to 1. Today it’s 2.8 to 1 and will continue to decrease through 2040.

The rise in obesity, addiction, diabetes, and other chronic illnesses costs all Americans, including Medicare beneficiaries, more now. Americans spent about $8,500 per person, adjusted for inflation, on health care in 2000. Today the amount is more than $14,500.

The second factor in the cost of Medicare is innovation in the health care industry. Medicare pays for far more diagnostic tools and treatments than it did in 1965, including things such as CT scans, MRIs, and joint replacement surgery. But the biggest recent cost increase has come from prescription drugs, which were not covered by Medicare until 2006. By 2022, prescription drugs accounted for 14 percent of all Medicare spending.

A third factor is Medicare Part C, or Medicare Advantage. That’s an optional program started in 1997 to allow private insurance companies to manage benefits for Medicare beneficiaries.

People who opt into Medicare Advantage continue to pay their Part B premium to Medicare. Then the government pays the insurer a lump sum to pay for their treatment. An analysis by KFF, a health policy research group, found that Medicare Advantage cost $321 per year more per enrolled beneficiary than traditional Medicare did in 2019. That amounted to $7 billion.

Now, more than half of Medicare’s 68 million beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 21:45

Scott Bessent Confirmed As Treasury Secretary, Pushes For Gradual Universal Tariffs Up To 20%

Scott Bessent Confirmed As Treasury Secretary, Pushes For Gradual Universal Tariffs Up To 20%

Late on Monday, the Senate confirmed Scott Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary in a 68–29 vote, putting him in a key role in implementing President Trump’s tariff and growth agenda. The billionaire investor will be spearheading Trump’s plan of cutting taxes and curbing deficits, while putting forward a tariff plan that also facilitates growth.

The Senate Finance Committee approved Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary on a 16-11 vote, with two Democrats—Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.)—joining Republicans. Democrats who opposed his nomination alluded to concerns about his tax dispute with the IRS.

“Like a lot of Wall Street titans, he’s opted out of paying a fair share into Medicare,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking member on the committee.

Bessent has previously said the U.S. faces economic calamity if Congress does not renew key provisions from Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire Dec. 31, 2025. According to the Epoch Times, negotiating the extension of those tax cuts will be one of Bessent’s major responsibilities even as he pushes for 3 percent annual growth, significant trims to deficits, and increasing domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) described the Wall Street veteran as an “example of the American dream in action.”

“He brings a wealth of private sector experience in the economy and markets to his new role, as well as the concern for the needs of working Americans,” Thune said on the Senate floor.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) defended Bessent before the vote, saying that the Key Square Group founder has complied with tax laws.

Many Democrats, naturally, disagreed. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), one of the Democrats who voted against Trump’s pick to lead the Treasury Department,  called it a “double standard in America” during an executive committee hearing on Jan. 21.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Bessent’s nomination further highlights billionaires’ influence on U.S. politics. “Billionaires dominate the American economy, and Republicans plan to give them more tax breaks,” she said.

In his Jan. 16 confirmation hearing in front of the committee, Bessent discussed various economic issues. Bessent has expressed how critical it is to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), President Donald Trump’s signature legislation from his first term in the White House.

Sitting before the Senate Finance Committee during his Jan. 16 confirmation hearing, the Wall Street veteran told lawmakers that allowing the TCJA to expire would cause “an economic calamity” and lead to “financial instability.” “We will see a gigantic middle-class tax increase. We will see the child tax credit halved,“ Bessent said. ”We will see the deductions halved … it has the potential for a sudden stop.”

Contrary to his most recent hedge fund letter, the billionaire financier now also supports the president’s tariff plans. He highlighted the various benefits associated with trade levies, such as strengthening the U.S. dollar, forcing foreign manufacturers to export deflation, and nudging consumers to change their preferences to support American jobs.

And speaking of flipflopping, exactly one year after he wrote in his KeySquare letter to investors that he found it "unlikely that across-the-board tariffs, as currently reported by the media, would be enacted", the FT reported that Bessent is now pushing for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5% and rise gradually.

The 2.5% levy would move higher by the same amount each month, the people familiar with it said, giving businesses time to adjust and countries the chance to negotiate with the US president’s administration.

The levies could be pushed up to as high as 20 per cent — in line with Trump’s maximalist position on the campaign trail last year. But a gradual introduction would be more moderate than the immediate action some countries feared.

The proposal by Bessent comes as Trump’s team debates how to implement tariff plans, with the president escalating his tariff rhetoric on Monday in a speech in Florida, threatening more duties on semiconductors, metals and pharmaceutical goods.

“We have to bring production back to our country,” Trump said.

Trump was speaking after a day of turmoil in US stock markets, triggered by a tech sell-off as China appeared to make a leap ahead of the US in the global artificial intelligence race. His threat to impose tariffs on semiconductors entering the US would be difficult to carry out given the impact on tech companies relying on chipmakers such as Taiwan’s TSMC.

In contrast, Bessent’s plan would see just 2.5% added to tariffs each month. According to the FT, it was unclear if the Treasury secretary had convinced other central stakeholders, including Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, to adopt his proposal for a gradual introduction of tariffs.

Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to force tariffs of up to 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico as soon as this weekend, and in recent days threatened Colombia with 25% tariffs in a dispute over deportees. That said, an FT source said that Trump’s thinking said he was weighing different options. “There is not a single plan the president is ready to decide on yet.”

When asked by reporters last week whether he planned to introduce universal tariffs, Trump replied: “We may. But we’re not ready for that yet.”

We may not be there yet, but we will be there soon, especially if Trump follows through on his urging to abolish income tax altogether, which implies that tariffs would need to somehow generate similar amounts of revenue. In that case a 20% universal tariff is just the start.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 21:20

Missouri Takes CCP To Court For $25 Billion Over Hoarding Of COVID-19 Protective Equipment

Missouri Takes CCP To Court For $25 Billion Over Hoarding Of COVID-19 Protective Equipment

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be on trial in Missouri on Jan. 27 after the state sued over damages sustained as a result of its actions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Andrew Bailey during the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference the Gaylord National Convention Center in Fort Washington, Maryland, Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024. Photo by Dominic Gwinn / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP

We’re hauling China into court to hold them accountable for unleashing COVID-19 on the world,” state Attorney General Andrew Bailey said in a press release, Gray Media local affiliate KAIT8 reported.

It said that Bailey is scheduled to appear in federal district court in Cape Girardeau for the trial.

Missouri will be the first state to sue the CCP and its relevant entities over actions it says allowed COVID-19 to spread globally.

Bailey’s office said it will seek $25 billion in damages for actions it says caused significant loss of life and economic disruptions in Missouri and harmed its citizens.

“Missouri v. China is truly a landmark case, as we seek $25 billion in damages,” Bailey said. “We won a key victory in this case last year, so we’re feeling confident heading into trial.”

Bailey filed the lawsuit in federal district court in 2020 during the pandemic. Bailey’s office sought damages for the CCP’s cover up of critical information about human-to-human spread of the virus inside China and for hoarding personal protective equipment.

None of the China-based defendants named in the lawsuit responded, though briefs were filed by Lawyers for Upholding International Law and The China Society of Private International Law to defend China.

The CCP dismissed any factual or legal basis for the lawsuit, which it called “very absurd.”

The case was dismissed by the district court judge, who ruled that the defendants were immune under the 1976 Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA), which generally prohibits lawsuits against foreign states in U.S. courts. Upon appeal to a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, Missouri’s case was revived in January 2024 but only for the state’s claims regarding the hoarding of personal protective equipment.

The panel ruled that part of the lawsuit as an antitrust claim that fell under the statutory exception related to commercial activity by foreign states.

The state must now prove that the CCP and the other named China-based entities hoarded personal protective equipment, and that the direct effect of this caused harm to Missouri and its citizens.

The CCP is not expected to have a representative in court, which could make a default judgment in Missouri’s favor easier to achieve, facing no cross-examination or rebuttals from China.

Critics of the case have called it a stunt aimed at publicly placing blame on the CCP for the COVID-19 pandemic. Some legal experts have also warned that the case could set a risky precedent to see foreign governments allow plaintiffs to sue the United States in tribunals around the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 20:55

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