Zero Hedge

"Blood, Feces, & Terror": The Trump Pardons Trigger Judicial Rage

"Blood, Feces, & Terror": The Trump Pardons Trigger Judicial Rage

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Even though President Trump had made it a campaign pledge to pardon those involved in the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot, the roughly 1,500 pardons Trump issued on his first day produced familiar reactions from politicians and pundits.

In Philadelphia, District Attorney Larry Krasner pledged to pursue those pardoned or commuted with new charges on the state level — eclipsing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg in repackaging federal crimes as state offenses.

Others cited the pardons as evidence of an even greater plot or purpose. On MSNBC, former NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund head Sherrilyn Ifill declared that the pardons were all part of a plan to build an army of “brownshirts.”

Not to be outdone, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) warned that Trump was issuing pardons to create a “reserve army of political foot soldiers to act on behalf of MAGA and Donald Trump.”

Such hyperbole, particularly the Nazi references, is now commonplace. Indeed, the left jumped the shark on the Nazi-mania and death-of-democracy mantra months ago. This week, however, some of the most strident comments seem to be coming from the federal bench itself.

Indeed, some judges used dismissal hearings to launch into what seemed at points like cable-ready commentary. Take District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan, an Obama appointee who had previously presided over Trump’s election interference case.

Chutkan had been criticized for failing to recuse herself from that case after she made highly controversial statements about Trump from the bench. In a sentencing hearing of a Jan. 6 rioter in 2022, Chutkan said that the rioters “were there in fealty, in loyalty, to one man — not to the Constitution.” She added then, “[i]t’s a blind loyalty to one person who, by the way, remains free to this day.” That “one person” was still under investigation at the time and, when Trump was charged, Chutkan refused to let the case go.

She then pursued Trump with a vigor second only to Special Counsel Jack Smith.

In the latest hearing, Chutkan again decided to use the bench to amplify her own views of the pardons and Jan. 6. She proclaimed that the pardons could not change the “tragic truth” and “cannot whitewash the blood, feces and terror that the mob left in its wake. And it cannot repair the jagged breach in America’s sacred tradition of peacefully transitioning power.”

In fairness, judges often express the gravity of offenses at sentencing, and most of us certainly share the strong revulsion over what occurred on Jan. 6. However, these cases are being dismissed after an election whose winner explicitly pledged to close the prosecutions through executive clemency.

The defendant in her courtroom was there to have a required dismissal entered in his case, not to hear Judge Chutkan speaking truth to power. In this case, she is the power. It is the power to rule dispassionately on the specific case before her. It is not the power to hold court on the merits of presidential decisions.

Down the hall, Chutkan’s colleague Judge Beryl Howell, also an Obama appointee, lashed out at Trump’s actions, writing, “[T]his Court cannot let stand the revisionist myth relayed in this presidential pronouncement.”

Yet, all of that paled in comparison to what their colleague U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, also an Obama appointee, did with his Jan. 6 cases.

He ordered J6 defendants to seek prior approval before going to Capitol Hill or even coming within any of the 69 square miles of the nation’s Capitol. Thus Mehta practically banished Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and seven other defendants.

It does not appear that the Trump Justice Department requested such restrictions, but Mehta was able to impose them because those defendants had received commutations rather than pardons. A commutation does not require the dismissal of a case, and courts are generally allowed to set conditions for released defendants.

However, these are new conditions imposed after presidential commutations. More importantly, they could affect the exercise of First Amendment rights from free speech to free association to the right to petition the government. For example, Rhodes and others would have to disclose intended meetings with members of Congress or participation in political events.

Rhodes previously asked to speak to the House committee that investigated the riot, but the Democrat-controlled committee refused to allow it. (A Yale law graduate, Rhodes insisted that the hearing be conducted in public, the very condition Hunter Biden made with the support of some of these same members.)

What if Rhodes now wants to meet privately with members to supply his testimony? He would need Mehta to approve it and potentially make such plans public.

In my book, “The Indispensable Right,” I discuss the J6 cases and serious concerns over what a top Justice Department official called the “shock and awe” campaign to make an example of the defendants by throwing the book at them.

Nevertheless, even though I opposed the seditious conspiracy charges on legal grounds, I did not support the pardoning of violent offenders who attacked police officers.

The court system plays a key role in either tamping down or fueling rage in society. The book details how “rage rhetoric” often became state rage during periods of crackdowns on free speech. Over the last two centuries, some judges used their courtrooms to lash out at political opponents, anarchists, unionists or communists.

I was particularly concerned in these cases with sentences that seemed visceral, even gratuitous, in denying free speech rights.

In Washington, judges imposed limits on what political views defendants could read or share.

For example, Judge Reggie B. Walton, a Bush appointee who had previously called Trump a “charlatan,” had before him a typical Jan. 6 case — that of Daniel Goodwyn, 35, of Corinth, Texas. Goodwyn pleaded guilty on Jan. 31, 2023, to one misdemeanor count of entering and remaining in a restricted building. It is a minor offense that generated little jail time.

However, Walton faulted Goodwyn for appearing on Fox News and spreading “disinformation,” and so he ordered the government to monitor what he was viewing and discussing. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals rebuked Walton for that surveillance order, but he doubled down. On remand, the Biden Justice Department insisted that Goodwyn was unrepentant and still viewing “extremist media.”

Walton, therefore, determined that the risk was too great in Goodwyn spreading “false narratives” when we are “on the heels of another election.”

Now, his colleague is similarly ordering that those freed under Trump’s commutations will disclose and seek approval to go to the Capitol to speak with members or other citizens.

Many of us have long viewed the Jan. 6 riot as a desecration of our constitutional process. Few people want to defend Rhodes or either the Oath Keepers or the Proud Boys. However, the First Amendment was not written to protect popular speech or popular individuals.

The Mehta order should not push President Trump toward converting these commutations into pardons. It should also not prevent us from questioning the court’s authority to regulate the exercise of First Amendment rights.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 11:50

Sweden Seizes Bulk Carrier After Suspected Baltic Sea Undersea Fiber Cable Sabotage

Sweden Seizes Bulk Carrier After Suspected Baltic Sea Undersea Fiber Cable Sabotage

Following Sunday's undersea cable incident, in which a bulk carrier damaged a fiber optic cable connecting Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland, Swedish prosecutors announced that the ship had been seized and is anchored outside the Swedish port of Karlskrona.

Local newspaper Expressen confirmed that Swedish Coast Guard vessels surrounded the Malta-flagged Vezhen, now anchored at the port of Karlskrona. 

"We are directly on site with the seized ship and are taking measures as decided by the prosecutor," said Mattias Lindholm, spokesperson for the Coast Guard. 

Mats Ljungqvist, a senior prosecutor at the National Security Unit, stated that the National Police Operations Department, the Coast Guard, and the Armed Forces are involved in the investigation into Vezhen.

The ship is suspected of damaging the data cable under the Baltic Sea belonging to Latvia's state-run radio and TV center by dragging an anchor. 

According to ship tracking data, Vezhen departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga last week and was transiting between Gotland and Latvia when the undersea cable was damaged. 

Latvia's state-run radio and TV center said the "damaged" undersea fiber optic cable caused disruptions in data transmission.

Over the past 18 months, three alarming incidents have been reported in which commercial ships traveling to or from Russian ports are suspected of severing undersea cables in the Baltic region.

Source: WaPo 

Accident or sabotage? The billion-dollar question. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 08:50

Hedge Fund CIO: If Trump's Agenda Succeeds, It Will Force Foreign Leaders To Adopt Pro-Growth Policies

Hedge Fund CIO: If Trump's Agenda Succeeds, It Will Force Foreign Leaders To Adopt Pro-Growth Policies

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Hope all goes well… “Builders make the most money,” I said at the luncheon, high in some tower, looking out over Dallas. “That’s why I’m sitting here today,” said the entrepreneur to my left, confident, smiling. “If you’re not building a company, the next best thing is to own equity,” I said to the oil, gas, tech execs, family offices.

We discussed the new administration, geopolitics, markets, risks, opportunities, my worldview. Then I asked them all about Trump’s drill-baby-drill policy, America’s energy supply dynamics, demand. “Biden was bad for business but good for prices,” one said, many nodded. “And Trump will be good for business but bad for prices.”

“The golden age of America begins right now,” said President Trump, vowing to annihilate the nation’s many challenges, sending a shiver through our country’s allies and adversaries.

Economists were quick to spread skepticism. You see, American growth is already quite robust, with GDPNow estimating Q4 real GDP of 3.0%. Unemployment is low at 4.1%. CPI inflation at 2.9% is higher than target but well off the 9.1% high in mid-2022. Nationwide gasoline prices are $3.14 a gallon, not far from levels in Trump’s first term, miles below the $5.03 mid-2022 highs. And the stock market is at all-time highs, with the Shiller P/E ratio at a level exceeded only in the 1999 bubble.

So, economists argue that with a 6.3% federal budget deficit, the prospect of massive tariffs, slowing international trade, government layoffs, reduced immigration, and rising inflation, the US economy simply lacks the capacity to power ahead, even with Trump’s pledge to slash red tape. Perhaps they’re right, but economists (and central bankers) have been horribly wrong for so many years that it’s hard to do anything but take the other side of their consensus.

Our geopolitical allies and adversaries are another matter altogether. They’re simply praying Trump’s economic experiment fails. With the American economy already outpacing every country that matters, and with those nation’s electorates growing increasingly agitated, restless, riotous, the possibility of the US widening the chasm terrifies their leaders.

The prospect of being held to account for their economic mismanagement, like the negligent mayor of Los Angeles, is too much to bear for the globe’s presidents, prime ministers, chancellors, paranoid dictators. And this, in an ironic twist, holds promise for a brighter global future, if the America First agenda forces panicked foreign leaders to adopt more pro-growth policies for their people.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 08:30

DeepSink: Global Markets Crash On Cheap China AI Panic

DeepSink: Global Markets Crash On Cheap China AI Panic

US equity futures and global markets are tumbling as rising weekend fears that China's DeepSeek's R1 AI platform could lead to a collapse in capex spending plans, have culminated in a wholesale rout of tech names around the world. And since tech is by and far the most important sector to global equities, almost nothing has been spared (with the possible exception of the energy sector which for months was used as a pair trade to fund tech longs). As a result, what as of 6pm on Sunday night (when futs opened) was a mere DeepSelling trickle...

... has since transformed into a full-blown DeepSink rout, sending S&P futures down as much as 3% and Nasdaq futures down 5%, before a modest bounce. As of 8:00am, S&P futs were down 2.3%, and Nasdaq futs tumbled 3.9%, on futures volume that was about four times the 30-day average, as the the DeepSeek story forces investors to "question the market position of all the MegaCap Tech names and the entire AI supply chain." Mag7 names are all plunging premarket by 4-6% while some former leaders are getting absolutely nuked such as NVDA -11%, AVGO -10.8%, VRT -18%. The global risk off panic means bond yields are collapsing while the USD is moving lower and commodities are mixed. Mag7 earnings take on heightened importance this week, but the SPX may be down 4-5% ahead of TSLA’s earnings on Weds. As JPM's market intel team puts it, "Is AI dead or is one of the greatest buy-the-dip trades in recent memory?" Separately, President Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Colombia, which sent the dollar higher, also contributed to the contracts’ decline. Trump pulled the threat after reaching a deal with the Colombian government on the return of deported migrants.

In premarket trading, Nvidia plunged 12% in US premarket trading, setting it up for the biggest drop on record in terms of market capitalization after Cramer said last week it could be "breaking out."

All AI-linked stocks slumped amid concern that AI models from Chinese firm DeepSeek could disrupt US technological leadership. C3.ai (AI) -6%, Palantir (PLTR) -6%, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) -9%; Chip-related stocks decline: Broadcom (AVGO) -12%, Lam Research (LRCX) -5%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) -14%; AI infrastructure-related stocks also traded lower: Amphenol (APH) -11%, ARM Holdings (ARM) -10%, Oracle (ORCL) -7%. The tech slump triggered by DeepSeek sent ripples into other industries. Needless to say, all Mag7 names were sharply lower: Alphabet (GOOGL) -3%, Amazon (AMZN) -4%, Apple (AAPL) -0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) -6%, Meta Platforms (META) -3%, Nvidia (NVDA) -12% and Tesla (TSLA) -4%. Power stocks, which are typically less volatile, slid on fears of weaker electricity demand from AI data centres. Here are some other premarket movers:

  • Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) surges 110% after the drug developer gave promising results from a mid-stage trial of its experimental treatment for patients with cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis — a liver disease.
  • AT&T Inc. (T) climbs 2% after posting fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street projections, driven by seasonal promotions and bundled product offerings.
  • For some reason, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks also dropped as the emergence of a new Chinese artificial intelligence model triggered a global selloff in riskier assets. Coinbase (COIN) -4%, Mara Holdings (MARA) -5%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) -6%
  • Logility (LGTY) jumps 23% after Aptean agreed to acquire the software company for $14.30 per share.
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) tumbles 13% after the fintech company’s first quarter and full-year forecasts for adjusted Ebitda trail consensus expectations.
  • Technology stocks slide after DeepSeek raised questions about high valuations of companies such as Nvidia.

The buzz over DeepSeek emerged over the weekend, with tech analysts saying the company’s AI model provides comparable performance to the world’s best chatbots at a fraction of the price. For some thoughts see here:

For investors, it put a question mark over an AI-driven rally that’s added $15 trillion to the Nasdaq 100 since 2022 and been at the heart of US equity gains.

“It does put a lot of scrutiny at the level of valuations,” said Benedicte Lowe, equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360. “We are quite positive on US tech stock sector. But it puts pressure on the outlook and is a turning point for the companies at this stage in the cycle.”

President Trump’s spat over the weekend with Colombia also added to the bearish mood in the market. Trump had announced sweeping tariffs on the country and then abruptly changed course after reaching a deal on the return of deported migrants.  “The incident again shows that tariffs are a negotiating tool, but markets need to price in some premium for the volatility that such announcements will bring,” wrote Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies. The Mexican peso underperforms with a 1% fall.

Tech will remain in focus for traders, with four of the Magnificent Seven stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla — scheduled to release results this week. “With DeepSeek likely to stay in investors’ minds, muted gains for beats and severe punishment for misses may be the outcome of the earnings season,” said Patrick Armstrong, chief investment officer at Plurimi Wealth LLP.

In Europe, ASML Holding NV sank 10%, the biggest selloff since October, weighing on the Europe’s Stoxx 600, which was down 0.6%. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

  • ASML and ASM International lead a slide in European semiconductor stocks, while Siemens Energy also sinks, as shares tied to the artificial intelligence industry drop amid concern that AI models from Chinese firm DeepSeek could disrupt US technological leadership.
  • BASF shares fall as much as 2.5% after the German company reported preliminary results, with earnings momentum in the chemicals divisions weaker than expected.
  • Luxury shares fall as JPMorgan says recent share-price gains for Richemont and Burberry were likely down to company-specific dynamics and may not play out to the same extent for other luxury goods firms.
  • Diageo shares fall as much as 1.2% after the distiller said it does not plan to sell the Guinness beer brand or its stake in Moet Hennessy.
  • SGS shares jump as much as 7% while Bureau Veritas slides as much as 3.8% after the pair confirmed that talks about a possible combination have ended without a deal being reached.
  • Ryanair shares rise as much as 4.2%, touching the highest since May, after a stronger-than-expected performance in the third quarter, driven by healthy close-in bookings during the holiday period.
  • Universal Music shares gain as much as 7.6%, the most since August, after the world’s largest record label announced a new multiyear distribution agreement with Spotify Technology which includes new paid subscription tiers and the bundling of music and non-music content.
  • WH Smith shares rise as much as 9.3%, their biggest intraday advance since September 11, after a report the company was exploring options, including a potential sale, for its high street unit, which includes more than 500 stores in the UK.
  • BAT rises as much as 4.4%, hitting the highest level since March 2023, after an upgrade by UBS in which analysts contend the tobacco giant’s valuation is too low.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were steady Monday as Chinese shares’ gains on AI-fueled optimism offset selloffs in India triggered by concerns over an economic slowdown. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up early gains to trade flat. Shares of Alibaba, Tencent and Toyota were among top gainers. Indian stocks, including Infosys and HDFC Bank, fell and weighed on the index. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong led gains at the start of a shortened trading week, with tech firms linked to DeepSeek rallying as investors assessed the Chinese AI app’s popularity. Chinese AI-related stocks reacted positively, with mainland-listed Merit Interactive Co. among those surging by their daily limits. Merit has some of the clearest links to DeepSeek after stating in an earlier filing that it had incorporated the homegrown AI firm’s model into marketing. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed as much as 2% ahead of Lunar New Year holidays this week. Japan’s Topix index climbed, as market participants breathed a sigh of relief that the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate hike last week passed without turmoil. Markets in Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia were closed for a holiday Monday.

“We had a week of relative restraint on Trump’s part with regards to tariffs, with the dollar index easing to lowest level in more than four weeks,” said Kok Hoong Wong, head of institutional equities sales trading at Maybank Securities. “But that changed this morning after Trump slapped tariffs on Colombia, driving US stock futures lower and dollar higher in early Asian trade. DeepSeek, an open-source model that seemed to be able to run on lower-spec GPU, may pose a challenge to Nvidia’s dominance and other popular AI providers such as ChatGPT,” he said.

In FX, the Japanese yen climbs to the top of the G-10 FX leader board, rising 1.3% against the greenback as its safe-haven appeal comes to the fore. The Swiss franc also climbs 0.6%. FX was also hit after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Colombia before abruptly pulling the threat when Colombia's president agreed to comply with Trump's demands. The Mexican peso underperforms with a 1% fall.

In rates, treasuries lead a rally in global government bonds, with US 10-year yields falling as much as 12bp across maturities and all but 30-year having reached lowest levels this year. Haven demand is at play with tech shares leading US stock index futures lower on perceived competitive threat from China’s AI startup DeepSeek. Yields remain at least 9bp lower led by intermediate sectors, steepening 5s30s spread by ~2.5bp toward Friday’s highs; 10-year, down 11bp near 4.51%, outperforms bunds and gilts by ~5bps. US session includes 2- and 5-year note auctions, an accelerated schedule that concludes with 7-year notes Tuesday, before Wednesday’s FOMC policy announcement.  

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.4% to $75 a barrel. Spot gold falls $6 to $2,765/oz. Bitcoin falls 5% to below $100,000.

It's a busy week, which sees the Fed, ECB, PCE and the bulk of tech earnings; on Monday we start with the December Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and new home sales (10am) and January Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 2.0% to 6,013.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 526.86
  • MXAP little changed at 182.85
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 573.64
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 39,565.80
  • Topix up 0.3% to 2,758.07
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 20,197.77
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,250.60
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 75,351.00
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 8,408.87
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,536.80
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.52%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0476
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $78.40/bbl
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $78.40/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,761.00
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 107.52

Top Overnight news

  • Nvidia shares tumbled premarket as Chinese startup DeepSeek’s lower-cost AI model — which Marc Andreessen called “AI’s Sputnik moment” — cast doubt on sky-high tech valuations. Nasdaq futures fell more than 4%, putting broader tech stocks on track for a $1 trillion wipeout. ASML dropped more than 10%. DeepSeek’s AI assistant overtook ChatGPT to become the top free app on the US App Store. BBG
  • Big Tech earnings this week may add to worries for equities bulls, with profit growth projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years. BBG
  • US President Trump announced the US will impose emergency 25% tariffs on all Colombian goods coming into the US which will be raised to 50% in one week after Colombia denied entry to two US deportation flights. Trump also announced a travel ban and visa revocations on Colombian government officials and said he will fully impose emergency treasury, banking and financial sanctions on Colombia, while he added that the measures on Colombia are just the beginning.
  • Colombian President Petro backtracked and offered his presidential plane to repatriate migrants coming back from the US, although Reuters reported that Petro threatened 50% tariffs on goods from the US in retaliation to measures announced by US President Trump. However, the White House later announced that Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump's terms including unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the US, while fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions on Colombia will be held in reserve and not signed but visa sanctions issued and enhanced inspections will remain in effect until the first plane of Colombian deportees is returned.
  • Mexico reportedly refused a US deportation flight, according to officials cited by Reuters. However, the White House denied reports of Mexico refusing migrant flights and stated that Mexico has accepted several flights in recent days.
  • Momentum is growing among US President Trump’s advisers to place 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as soon as Saturday ahead of negotiations: WSJ.
  • Pete Hegseth was confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Defense through a 51-50 vote in which US VP Vance cast the tie-breaking vote.
  • Elon Musk reportedly explores blockchain use in the US government efficiency effort.
  • China’s economy stumbled in January, with factory activity unexpectedly shrinking to 49.1 after three months of expansion. Economists said the pre-Chinese New Year slowdown was more severe than usual. BBG
  • The CSRC unveiled measures to boost index investments and the government approved 52 billion yuan ($7.2 billion) for long-term equity investment. BBG
  • Israel started allowing Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, the AP reported. The White House earlier said Israel and Lebanon extended their truce until Feb. 18 as they began talks for the return of Lebanese prisoners. BBG
  • German companies unexpectedly became more pessimistic at the start of the year. Ifo’s expectations index fell to 84.2 in January from 84.4 the previous month. BBG
  • British business activity slumped and profit warnings rose, reports by the CBI and EY-Parthenon showed. PM Keir Starmer discussed trade on a call with Trump and agreed to meet soon. BBG
  • Goldman predicts US sanctions won’t significantly impact Russian oil production because of high freight rates and cheap supply. Non-sanctioned ships are filling the gap left by blacklisted tankers, while the deepening discount of ESPO crude attracts price-sensitive buyers. GIR, BBG.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed in a holiday-thinned start to the week as participants digested disappointing Chinese PMI data, Trump's tariff announcement on Colombia, and with Chinese start-up DeepSeek threatening US dominance in the AI sector with a low-cost model on par with OpenAI’s o1. Markets in Australia, South Korea and Taiwan were closed for holidays. Nikkei 225 reversed opening gains and dipped back beneath 40,000 amid headwinds from Trump tariffs and Chinese PMIs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat on the last trading day for the mainland before the Chinese New Year holiday despite the disappointing PMI data which showed headline Chinese Manufacturing PMI back in contraction territory. Nonetheless, there was notable strength seen in some AI-related stocks after Chinese tech start-up DeepSeek's low-cost AI model was reported to be on par with OpenAI's o1.

Top Asian News

  • US President Trump said he is in talks with multiple people regarding buying TikTok and will likely have a decision on the app’s future in the next 30 days, while it was separately reported that the White House is working on a plan to have Oracle (ORCL) and an investor group takeover US TikTok.
  • China’s Foreign Minister Wang is to visit the UK in February for talks with UK Foreign Secretary Lammy, according to The Guardian.
  • China's President Xi says they will be preventing and resolving risks in key areas and external shocks, to promote a sustained economic recovery and improvement in 2025, via Xinhua.

European bourses are almost entirely in the red while US futures are lower across the board amid the fallout from disappointing Chinese PMI data overnight, Trump's tariff announcement on Colombia, and with Chinese start-up DeepSeek threatening US dominance in the AI sector with a low-cost model on par with OpenAI’s o1. Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, with heavyweight tech and energy names in the region slumping on the DeepSeek update; ASML -10.6%, ASM -14.2% and Siemens Energy -21%.  Sectors somewhat mixed with a clear defensive bias given broader market risk aversion, with Tech lagging on the above alongside Energy which is also hit on Trump and Chinese PMIs, factors which weigh on Basic Resources as well.

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday and agreed to meet soon, according to the UK government.
  • UK PM Starmer is expected to resist pressure from US President Trump to increase defence spending amid concerns surrounding public finances, according to The Times citing sources.
  • UK Chancellor Reeves will call on sceptical Labour MPs on Monday to back her plans to boost the UK economy including the proposal to expand London’s Heathrow Airport, according to FT.
  • UK Chancellor Reeves indicated the government would consider signing up to the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM), a tariff-free trading scheme, according to The Telegraph.
  • Fitch affirmed Netherlands at AAA; Outlook Stable.

FX

  • DXY is lower on the session with the Dollar on the backfoot vs. safe-haven currencies such as JPY and CHF due to the risk-aversion on the AI-related updates. Index at a 107.21 low, matching the trough from Friday.
  • JPY and CHF the outperformers, with USD/JPY testing but yet to breach 154.00 to the downside vs overnight 156.25 peak.
  • EUR near the unchanged mark, benefitting slightly from the German Ifo metrics though they provide only minimal relief given internal commentary while the Single Currency is very much focused on the ECB this week. EUR/USD in 1.0455-1.0502 band.
  • GBP is faring slightly better and taking advantage of the USD's downside as it stands though Cable is yet to deviate significantly from the unchanged mark. EUR/GBP pressured and towards 0.8393 lows. Action which comes ahead of a speech from Chancellor Reeves on Wednesday, ahead of which press has been focussed on various growth initiatives from the gov't.
  • Antipodeans softer given the risk tone and soft Chinese data, with the Yuan also hit on this.
  • On tariffs, MXN and CAD are both softer this morning after reports suggesting that President Trump could slap pre-emptive tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as Saturday; action is much more pronounced in the MXN.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1698 vs exp. 7.2295 (prev. 7.1705).
  • Mexican Central Bank said it will consider larger cuts to the benchmark interest rate early this year due to slowing inflation and warned balance of risks for inflation remains tilted to the upside mostly due to the persistence of core inflation.
  • Barclays month-end model indicates "moderate USD selling against most majors"; signal for Cable is "borderline strong".

Fixed Income

  • AI updates drive haven allure while Central Bank meetings move into focus; USTs post gains in excess of 20 ticks at a 109-07+ high into frontloaded supply on account of the FOMC this week.
  • Bunds holding around the 132.00 mark having hit a 132.06 peak just after Ifo and the opening of the US pre-market, resistance at 132.15 and 132.22 from last Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
  • Further upside for the complex came from the German Ifo release which saw Business Climate and Current Conditions print firmer than expected, however Expectations slipped from the prior as expected and internal commentary points to stagflation.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 41 ticks on the AI action to a 92.32 open before extending to a 92.60 peak post-Ifo and the US pre-market open. UK specifics not market moving thus far, lots of press attention on various initiatives the gov’t/Treasury is considering to drive growth ahead of a speech from Chancellor Reeves on Wednesday.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are modestly in the green. Having ground their way higher throughout the European morning and benefiting from the USD softness and ongoing geopolitical tensions; WTI and Brent at the top-end of USD 73.67-74.97/bbl and USD 76.57-77.88/bbl respective parameters.
  • However, initial action was bearish given Trump's tariff rhetoric, lower energy demand from datacentres for AI purposes and soft Chinese data all on the demand side. Furthermore, on the supply side Trump spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and discussed bringing oil prices down.
  • NatGas under marked pressure given the potential implications on energy demand from Chinese start-up DeepSeek announcing a model on par with OpenAI's advanced o1 model for a fraction of the costs. Elsewhere, EU to continue talks with Ukraine around gas supplies to Europe.
  • Metals are lower across the board with XAU yet to find any haven allure from the above and losing out at the expense of haven-FX and Bonds. Though, XAU has lifted off lows and is towards the USD 2772/oz session high. Base peers lower given the risk tone and Chinese data, 3M LME Copper holding just above USD 9.1k/T.
  • Russia's Nornickel (Q4): nickel output 59KT (prev. 55.8), palladium 606 (prev. 547), 2024 nickel output 205KT (prev. 209).
  • EU Commission says it will continue talks with Ukraine on Natgas supplies to Europe, will include Hungary and Slovakia.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed three hostages are to be released by Hamas and that Israel will allow Palestinians to cross into northern Gaza from Monday morning. It was also reported that Hamas said it handed over to mediators the required information regarding the list of hostages to be released during the first phase of the Gaza agreement.
  • Hamas said that Israel procrastinates in implementing ceasefire terms by preventing displaced Palestinians from returning to northern Gaza, while it holds Israel responsible for any delays in the implementation of the agreement and the repercussions in subsequent stages. It was separately reported that Hamas released a list of 200 Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel, according to Reuters.
  • Israeli fire killed a Lebanese soldier and injured another in southern Lebanon, while it was also reported that Israeli fire killed two people and injured 31 in southern Lebanon. It was later announced that the death toll from Israeli fire in southern Lebanon rose to eleven.
  • White House said the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon will continue to be in effect until February 18th, while Lebanon, Israel and the US will also begin negotiations for the return of Lebanese prisoners captured after 7th October 2023.
  • UN envoy in Lebanon and UNIFIL said conditions are not yet in place for the return of Lebanese citizens to the south, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
  • US lifted the pause on delivery of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, according to a source cited by Reuters.
  • US President Trump spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah of Jordan about moving people out of ‘demolition site’ Gaza to neighbouring countries and said he will speak with Egypt’s President El Sisi, while it was separately reported that Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said Egypt rejects any attempt to move Palestinians out of their land.
  • US Secretary of Defense Hegseth spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu and stressed the US is fully committed to ensuring Israel has the capabilities it needs to defend itself.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said he is hearing the Taliban is holding more American hostages than has been reported, while he added that the US may place a very big bounty on Taliban’s top leaders. It was separately reported that Rubio spoke with Yemeni PM Ahmed Bin Mubarak and discussed cooperation to stop Houthi attacks.
  • US President Trump’s Middle East envoy Witkoff will travel to Israel on Wednesday to oversee the Gaza ceasefire.
  • Iran has launched AI-guided missiles during military manoeuvres in Gulf waters, according to Sky News Arabia citing Iranian press.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia said its troops captured Zelene in eastern Ukraine, according to IFAX.
  • Moldovan President Sandu arrived in Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
  • Belarusian exit polls showed incumbent Lukashenko won the presidential election with 87.6% of votes.
  • Radio Free Europe editor posts that the EU ambassadors meeting has concluded and a six month extension to Russian sanctions is likely to come later today.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Baltic Sea submarine fibre optic cable between Latvia and Sweden was damaged on Sunday morning which was caused by external influence, according to Latvian public broadcaster LSM citing the cable operator.
  • North Korea tested a strategic cruise missile on Saturday, according to KCNA.
  • China’s Coast Guard said two Philippine vessels entered waters near the reef in the Spratly islands on Saturday, while China’s Coast Guards intercepted the vessels and drove them away.
  • Russia's Kremlin says there is still no signal from the US side about a Trump-Putin meeting.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Dec. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.06, prior -0.12
  • 10:00: Dec. New Home Sales MoM, est. 2.4%, prior 5.9%
  • 10:00: Dec. New Home Sales, est. 672,000, prior 664,000
  • 10:30: Jan. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -3.0, prior 3.4

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One week down, 207 to go of Trump 2.0 and what have we learnt so far? It’s hard to say we’ve learnt too much, even with the best part of a hundred executive orders already signed. The market has been relieved that tariffs haven’t been issued on “day one” as previously promised but its only five days until the February 1st date Mr Trump suggested could be the point he puts tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. So that will be the gorilla in the room this week. In addition, he’s ordered departmental reviews of existing trade practises with an April 1st deadline. So no news on tariffs isn’t necessarily good news. Yesterday Columbia was the latest to feel the wrath of Mr Trump as he ordered an emergency 25% tariff on the country, to be doubled in a week, over the country's refusal to allow two planes of undocumented migrants returning from the US to land. However, in the early hours of this morning, the US removed the threat after the Colombian leader agreed to grant entry to US military flights deporting migrants. This 12 hour incident feels like a template for how the US will now deal with its foreign policy issues.

Outside of Mr Trump watching, there’s a lot going on this week with rate meetings from the Fed and Bank of Canada (Wednesday), and the ECB (Thursday); inflation data in Europe (Thursday/Friday), US (core PCE Friday), Japan (Tokyo CPI Thursday), and Australia (Wednesday); and Q4 GDP in the US, Germany, France, Italy and Euro Zone (Thursday). If that wasn’t enough, earnings season starts to take off in both the US and Europe with 102 S&P 500 and 53 Stoxx 600 companies reporting with four of the Magnificent 7 (Microsoft, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday) being the obvious highlight. In the AI world there's been a lot of chatter in the last few days around Chinese firm DeepSeek's announcement that it's produced an open-source AI model that rivals some of the US tech giant's equivalents for a fraction of the costs and using less sophisticated chips. As this story builds, Nasdaq futures are down -2.23% this morning, driving the S&P 500 down -1.17%. These are big moves for this time of day. It will be interesting if this story gets momentum and whether the Mag-7 loses some of their luster.

In theory the main event this week would normally be the Fed but in our economists’s preview here they expect a relatively quiet meeting with no rate move and limited guidance about future policy decisions. They believe that while Chair Powell may not rule out a March cut as he did last January, the broad signals from the meeting should confirm that such a cut is not likely with Powell possibly emphasising the underlying strength of the economy and signs of stabilisation in the labour market that would require patience in removing further restriction. When asked about Mr Trump’s policies and their impact on inflation expect Powell to play a straight bat and say that the committee wont prejudge policies in advance.

After the Fed we get Q4 US GDP on Thursday (DB expect 2.6%), and then the core PCE deflator on Friday. Our economists expect +0.20% vs. +0.1% in December which should just about help the YoY rate round down to 2.8%. The 3-month annualized growth rate should tick down slightly to 2.3% from 2.5% and the 6-month rate should be unchanged at 2.4%. The employment cost index (ECI) is also out on Friday and this will be a key release for the Fed as more subdued labour market pressure has given them comfort in recent months.

Over in Europe, our economists expect the central bank to deliver another 25 bps cut on Thursday taking the policy rate to 2.75% and see the description of the policy stance unchanged relative to December. See more in their preview here. The ECB will also release its bank lending survey tomorrow and the consumer expectations survey on Friday. Optimism is creeping back into Europe this year and the December 2025 ECB contract has gone up from 1.56% in early December to 2.07% on Friday implying less than four cuts from here. Much of course will depend on the extent that Europe is in the crossfire of Mr Trump and so far the market is relieved that nothing specific was announced last week but note that Trump on at least two occasions called out the European Union and said at his virtual Davos address that the EU treats the US "very unfairly" and "very badly". So it would be wise to brace yourself for more news on this front.

Elsewhere in Europe, this week the focus will also be on flash January CPIs starting with Spain on Thursday. Prints for Germany and France are due Friday, with Eurozone-wide numbers out a week today. Our European economists expect headline and core Eurozone HICP to decline by 0.1pp to 2.3% YoY and 2.6% YoY. Their forecasts for Spain, Germany and France are 2.38%, 2.79% and 1.85%, respectively. See more in their latest inflation chartbook here and don't forget the GDP prints in Germany, France and the Eurozone on Thursday, as well as Sweden on Wednesday. Other highlights include the Ifo survey in Germany today as well as Sweden's Riksbank rates decision on Wednesday.

In Japan our economists preview the week-ahead including views on Thursday's Tokyo inflation, industrial production and labour market data and key forecasts updates here. The day-by-day week ahead calendar is at the end as usual with a fuller list of key events, including the main earnings to be realised.

Asian equity markets are mixed in thin trading as the Columbia and DeepSeek stories reverberate. The Hang Seng (+0.87%) is leading the way but mainland Chinese stocks are flatish after weaker than expected manufacturing PMI data (more below). Chinese markets will be closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday from tomorrow. Elsewhere, Australian and South Korean markets are closed for holidays. 10yr UST yields (-3.25bps) have edged lower, trading at 4.59% as we go to print.

Coming back to China, the official factory activity unexpectedly shrank in January, coming in at 49.1 (v/s +50.1 expected), down from +50.1 thus reversing the expansionary momentum over the past three months. China’s non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in January, compared to 52.2 last month. Separately, China’s industrial profits jumped +11.0% in December from a year earlier, growing for the first time since July. Meanwhile, full-year industrial profits in 2024 fell -3.3% from the previous year, extending declines to a third consecutive year.

Looking back at last week now, risk assets put in a strong performance as investors were relieved by the lack of immediate tariffs after Donald Trump returned to the presidency. That helped the S&P 500 advance +1.74% over the week as a whole (-0.29% Friday), which included its first record high of 2025 on Thursday. Those gains were evident across the world, with Europe’s STOXX 600 up +1.23% (-0.05% Friday), whilst Japan’s Nikkei was up +3.85% (-0.07% Friday) even as they delivered a hike on Friday, one that was fully priced by the time it arrived.

These advances were supported by growing investor confidence that the Fed would still cut rates this year, particularly given the absence of tariffs so far. On top of that, oil prices fell back after four consecutive weekly gains, with Brent crude down -2.83% last week to $78.50/bbl. So collectively, that meant the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting ticked up by +4.3bps to 42bps, meaning that futures still see at least 2 cuts in 2025 as more-likely-than-not. In turn, that helped Treasury yields inch lower, with the 2yr yield down -1.7bps (-2.3bps Friday) to 4.27% and the 10yr yield down -0.6bps (-2.3bps Friday) to 4.62%.

In Europe however, sovereign bonds struggled last week as the risk-on tone gathered pace across markets. That was particularly the case in Europe, where the 10yr bund yield was up +3.6bps (+2.0bps Friday) to 2.57%, which followed an upside surprise in the January flash PMIs on Friday. In Germany itself, the composite PMI was up to 50.1 (vs. 48.3 expected), which is its first month in expansionary territory since June. And for the Euro Area as a whole, the composite PMI was up to 50.2 (vs. 49.7 expected), which is its highest level since August. So that led to a few more questions about how rapidly the ECB would cut rates, with the amount priced in by the December meeting down -12.5bps over the week to 87bps.

Finally, spreads continued to tighten across the board last week. In fact, Euro IG credit spreads (-3bps) fell to their tightest level in 3 years, at 95bps. And among sovereign bonds, the Spanish-German 10yr spread also ended the week at its tightest in three and a half years, at just 62bps. US credit spreads also continued to tighten, with US IG down -2bps last week to 78bps, and US HY tightening -6bps to 256bps.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 08:15

European Leaders Double-Down On Stagnation At Davos

European Leaders Double-Down On Stagnation At Davos

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Many market participants appeared astonished to learn that Von Der Leyen and Scholz in Davos were steadfastly pursuing the policies that have severely damaged the EU. However, this is typical bureaucratic behaviour.

In a predictable move, EU bureaucrats have chosen to exploit the new Trump administration as an external enemy, rather than seizing the opportunity to unleash the immense potential of their economies. Bureaucrats do not care about results; they care about bureaucracy.

Ursula Von Der Leyen expressed her unwavering commitment to upholding the European Union’s climate and economic strategies when she asserted that “Europe will continue on its current path,” a stance marked by stagnation, high taxes, low competitiveness, and excessive debt. The Paris Agreement continues to be the best hope of all humanity,” she repeated. “Europe will stay the course and keep working with all nations that want to protect nature and stop global warming.” This statement is simply incorrect. The EU has used the Paris Climate Agreement as a tool for economic and social control, causing harm to its industrial and business infrastructure. In fact, the Paris Climate Agreement has achieved the opposite of its intended goals. The EU is now more dependent on imports of liquefied natural gas and coal to address supply challenges. European Union climate policies have only reduced emissions by crippling economic growth and industrial production.

Technology, competition, and free markets are necessary for environmental defence, not interventionism.

We should not be surprised when we read that the European Commission will present its competitive compass plan without reducing government overspending or eliminating any of the taxation and legislation burdens that have crippled the European Union.

Over the past 16 years, the U.S. GDP has grown by 94%, while the European Union’s nominal GDP has only increased by 11.2%. This has happened in a period of enormous fiscal and monetary “stimulus packages,” including the Juncker Plan and the Next Generation EU Fund, as well as negative nominal rates. The European Union stagnation is a consequence of a chain of public sector-promoted spending programs that have left a trail of debt and no real productivity growth.

From 2010 to 2023, productivity in the EU increased by only 5%, significantly lower than the 22% increase in the U.S. during the same period. How can this happen?

When governments subsidise low productivity and penalise high productivity with enormous taxes, the economy slumps.

European Union officials justify this trend, citing the rise of China and emerging economies as the reasons for the European relative decline. However, the share of global GDP for the EU has decreased from 34% in 1960 to 15% in 2024, while the U.S. has seen an increase from 28% to 25% over the same timeframe.

Social indicators are also significantly poorer. The unemployment rate in the European Union was 5.9% in November 2024. In the same period, the unemployment rate in the United States was recorded at 4.2%. However, countries like Spain and Greece have unemployment rates of 11.2% and 9.6%, respectively, with the population at risk of poverty and exclusion at 27% in Spain, 25% in Greece, and an average of 21% in the EU, according to Eurostat, with 13% of the population living in poverty. In the United States, the equivalent to the European rate is 22%, with 11% of the population living in poverty.

The EU’s at-risk-of-poverty threshold for a single person in Germany, the richest nation, stood at $14,124 per year. In Spain, it stood at $10,393 according to INE. In the US, it was $14,580 according to official figures. This means the poor in the United States are richer and fewer than in Europe.

The sad truth is that the alleged social contract and enormous government spending have not helped Europe in any area, and the average tax wedge is ten points higher in the EU than in the US, according to the Tax Foundation.

In Europe, it’s quite common to blame its economic weakness on a lack of central bank support.  It is simply false. The increase in money supply (M2) in the Euro Area from 2020 to 2025 was around 15%, and the balance sheet of the ECB is significantly larger than the United States Federal Reserve. The ECB’s balance sheet stands at 42% of GDP after reaching a peak of 69%, while the Fed’s balance sheet is 24.4% of GDP after reaching a peak of 37%. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented negative nominal interest rates on June 11, 2014, and has kept its anti-fragmentation and liquidity tools intact.

The ECB has been characterised by a hugely accommodative policy, focusing on maintaining price stability with a target inflation rate of “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”

The European Union is the poster boy of neo-Keynesianism and is losing in every social and economic area, missing all its opportunities in energy, technology, and industry. Bureaucracy, high taxes, and misguided interventionist policies.

The European Union could thrive with lower government spending, tax cuts, and eliminating bureaucracy because it has the human capital, businesses, and entrepreneurs to achieve it. However, the EU leaders do not want to reduce interventionism and their economic control objectives, leading to a significant risk of the EU bowing to China instead of cooperating with the US.

The EU problem is not Trump; it is the European Union’s interventionist political agenda.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 05:00

Tether USDt Tops Salary Payments & Savings In EU In 2024; Brighty

Tether USDt Tops Salary Payments & Savings In EU In 2024; Brighty

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Tether USDt, the world’s largest stablecoin by market capitalization, was the most widely used currency for salary payments and savings on the European crypto banking platform Brighty in 2024, according to a new report.

Brighty’s “Crypto Earners’ Money Habits” report, shared with Cointelegraph, revealed that USDt accounted for 85% of all crypto deposits on the platform.

The stablecoin also ranked as the second-largest savings asset after the euro, representing 33% of all business-to-customer (B2C) savings.

Brighty’s insights on money habits by crypto earners are based on data extracted from its base of 200,000 users for 2024 and additional surveys of 400 crypto earners across the European Union.

Tron-based USDT is the winner

While USDT enjoyed overwhelming dominance among crypto earners, rival stablecoin USD Coin only accounted for 5% of all B2C deposits by earners on Brighty last year.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, saw a similar share of 5%.

The share of currency/digital currency on Brighty’s deposits, withdrawals and card payments. Source: Brighty

According to Brighty’s data, TRC-20 USDT — USDT issued on the Tron blockchain — was the dominant stablecoin on the platform, accounting for more than 60% of overall USDT transactions on the platform.

The dominance of TRC-20 USDT is attributed to lower fees for transacting the stablecoin, as ERC-20 USDT — Ethereum-based USDT — has been associated with higher network fees.

The data aligns with Brighty’s survey results, as at least 70% of respondents cited lower transaction fees as a reason for using crypto for payments more frequently.

Reasons for using crypto for payments by Brighty’s survey respondents. Source: Brighty

Brighty expects a “challenging transition to USDC”

Brighty’s data raises questions in the context of the European crypto framework known as Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), suggesting a potential massive switch in USDT’s dominance.

While Tether’s rival Circle received a MiCA license for issuing its USDC stablecoin last year, Tether has opposed some MiCA requirements, effectively distancing itself from compliance. As such, European crypto asset service providers (CASP) might have to restrict USDT as a noncompliant MiCA stablecoin, according to some industry observers.

“Historically, USDT represented more than half of all crypto utilized by users,” Brighty’s co-founder and chief technology officer, Nick Denisenko, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“We expect a challenging transition to USDC, and users will need a lot of time to adapt to the changes.”

Brighty is a Swiss personal finance app that combines traditional digital banking experience with the benefits of stablecoins and decentralized finance. Its services include crypto exchange against numerous fiat currencies, particularly targeting global digital nomads, who are expected to reach 60 million by 2030.

As a European CASP, Brighty is working to obtain a MiCA license from local regulatory authorities, Denisenko said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/27/2025 - 04:15

Trump Effect: LA Bends The Knee, Will Reopen Pacific Palisades To Residents Starting Monday

Trump Effect: LA Bends The Knee, Will Reopen Pacific Palisades To Residents Starting Monday

Two days after President Trump scolded Los Angeles for refusing to allow residents affected by the recent fires to return to their homes, Mayor Karen Bass announced that Pacific Palisades will be completely reopened to residents during daylight hours, starting Monday, Jan. 27.

During a Friday roundtable, Bass told Trump that it was unsafe for residents to return. After residents at the meeting decried the slow response, Bass compromised - saying they could return "within a week."

Trump replied: "That’s a long time, a week. I’ll be honest, to me, everyone standing in front of their house, they want to go to work and they’re not allowed to do it. … They’re safe. They’re safe. You know what? They’re not safe. They’re not safe now. They’re going to be much safer. A week, a week is actually a long time the way I look at it."

Residents of the Palisades began trying to their homes and lots on Saturday - some of whom were able to talk their way past police, according to Breitbart's Joel Pollak, a Palisades resident whose house was spared. Pollak has been reporting from the ground since the fires began.

The county's decision to allow residents to return on Monday came with a caveat; weather permitting, and only until 5:00 p.m., which will allow people to sift through the rubble for belongings, or grieve and make peace with their loss.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 23:20

The Most Important Week Of The Quarter: Month End, Fed, ECB, Earnings , PCE And More

The Most Important Week Of The Quarter: Month End, Fed, ECB, Earnings , PCE And More

By Goldman trader Paolo Schiavone

Key Events - Global Week Ahead:  Fed and ECB, Lunar New Year, 20% S&P Earnings

  • Monday : China industrial profits and PMI, Germany IFO , US new home sales, Lagarde speak in Budapest, Bessent confirmation. 3rd Feb first QRA. 
  • Tuesday : US consumer confidence, durable goods, Informal dinner Lagarde and Von der Leyen. GM, Starbucks results. 
  • Wednesday : Fed, Brazil and Canada rate decision, Spain GDP, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings, Reeves speech in Oxfordshire, BOJ minutes
  • Thursday : ECB, Apple, CAT, Visa, UPS Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings, US Q4 GDP; RBA Jones speaks, BOJ Himino speaks.
  • Friday : France CPI, Germany CPI, unemployment, US personal income, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Samsung earnings, Bowman remarks.

Trading markets

  1. The plethora of events suggest x-asset vol is likely to be back next week. It’s Fed vs Mag7 earnings                          
  2. Very opportunity-rich environment if you’re quick on the trigger. But also, plenty of bad volatility (in as, not fundamentally driven, hard to forecast).                                                                                                                           
  3. So, you need to be nimble, size at half-75% of normal. Strong convictions weakly held. Weak convictions expressed in a risk efficient, premium down format.

Framework: Technical, Flows, Positioning. Valuation, Sentiment. 

  • Technical 30% : Top of the channel for US Equities/ Europe Breaking out / Oil and Copper at support / Momentum in bonds sell off seem to have calmed. 
  • Flows 30% :  Global equity funds slowed (+$6bn vs +$13bn last week). Fixed income stronger demand (+$14bn vs +$11bn last week). EM negative flows. FX , USD demand. 
  • Positioning 20% : Cleaner in Equities/ FI/ FX. Tariffs, strong earnings, healthy thematic, supportive macro have left clients with limited convictions. 
  • Valuation 10% : Low Equity Risk premia / Neutral for bonds. Would say not very high for the Mag7 given the reset in EPS expectations. Bonds 
  • Sentiment 10%: AAII stretched, GS Neutral. Despite one of the largest USD weekly drawdowns in years still constructive in Equities, Short oil, Neutral bonds. 

Fed view: We are pricing, 7 for March ,14 for May 25 for June. We view “market pricing as a probabilistic statement about possible Fed paths in coming years is too hawkish”

Interesting Trades:

  1. Fed- Dovish vs pricing- Rec SFRM5Z5
  2. Rec BOC meeting on Wed- 25 or more than 0
  3. Deepseek- low quality dip on Nasdaq. Buy dips in NQH5
  4. Earnings: ASML short MSFT long/ Meta long
  5. Earnings: Oracle/ Microsoft/ Amazon vs NVDA
  6. Long Copper into Chinese seasonality and Lunar new year destocking.

Weekend News flow: 

  1. Trump ridicules Denmark and insists US will take Greenland – FT
  2. Meta's chief AI scientist says DeepSeek's success shows that "open source models better vs proprietary ones"
  3. President Trump said he wants to "clean out" the Gaza Strip and urged Jordan and Egypt
  4. German Election Taboos Broken as Merz and Musk Flirt With AfD
  5. Baltic Sea data cable damaged in latest case of potential sabotage
  6. Reeves seeks to unlock billions from UK pension schemes for investment- FT

Charts: 

Chart 1 GS Flow of funds last week:

Chart 2: Mag Seven: EPS expectations slowing- buying opportunity on a lower bar ( BBG)

Chart 3: SPX short and USD shorts capitulation was at full speed.

Chart 4: Corporate Insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in history (data going back to 1988) 

Chart 5: Gold continues to be one of the highest conviction/ trend trades out of the gates in 2025. (Goldman)

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 23:13

Will Any Federal Officials Pay For What They Did?

Will Any Federal Officials Pay For What They Did?

Authored by James Bovard via The Brownstone Institute,

The biggest scientific con of the century is finally being exposed. But will any politicians or government officials ever be held responsible for the carnage they unleashed on Americans?

In early 2020, when the Covid pandemic was starting to ravage America, federal bureaucrats and politicians rushed to suppress any suggestion that the pandemic originated from a Chinese government lab bankrolled by US government agencies. Key Biden administration officials effectively exonerated the Chinese government even though the Chinese completely stonewalled any outside investigation into the origin of the Covid virus, as the Wall Street Journal recently revealed in a front-page scoop. 

The FBI’s top expert concluded that the virus leaked from the lab but he was derailed by the Biden administration, blocked from presenting his evidence at a key White House meeting in August 2021. Three scientists at the National Center for Medical Intelligence, part of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, concluded that Covid leaked from a lab but they were muzzled. The Inspector General is conducting an investigation to determine why those experts were silenced. The Department of Energy also concluded that Covid originated in a lab. In September 2023, a senior CIA analyst told a Congressional committee that six key CIA analysts had been bribed by the agency to abandon their conclusion that Covid originated in a lab leak.

The Chinese government first admitted that a pandemic had broken out in the city of Wuhan in early 2020. Though the Chinese military-affiliated Wuhan Institute of Virology had been experimenting with bats for years, the Chinese government insisted the new virus came from a nearby marketplace. But the lead scientists involved with bat research had all been struck down by Covid-19 symptoms shortly before the Chinese government denied any responsibility. There was a deluge of circumstantial evidence quickly linking the new virus to the lab. 

The outbreak of Covid-19 spurred one of the most brazen cover-ups in modern US history. The National Institute for Health had been financing gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That type of research seeks to genetically alter organisms to enable the spread of viruses into new species. Such research is extremely dangerous; as MIT professor Kevin Esvelt asked in 2021, “Why is anyone trying to teach the world how to make viruses that could kill millions of people?” The risks were compounded because the Wuhan Institute had a very poor safety rating. Two years earlier, the State Department confidentially “warned other federal agencies about safety issues at Wuhan labs studying bat Covid,” but the public disclosure of that alert was delayed until 2022.

In January 2020, top federal scientists recognized that the pandemic could obliterate their reputations. Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes for Health, wrote in an email that “a swift convening of experts in a confidence-inspiring framework is needed or the voices of conspiracy will quickly dominate, doing great potential harm to science and international harmony.” The “conspiracy” was the facts of the matter.

Anthony Fauci, the chief of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), speedily enlisted a handful of trusted scientists to gin up a paper supposedly “proving” that the virus could not have originated in the lab. A top NIAID scientist accepted the task of debunking the lab-leak story because, as he emailed a colleague, “Tony doesn’t want his fingerprints on origin stories.” The Lancet, one of the most respected medical journals in the world, enlisted in the cover-up with an op-ed by 27 scientists who proclaimed: “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that Covid-19 does not have a natural origin.” Maybe the same scientists also sent an addendum to NIH: Keep giving us grant money or your reputation will “swim with the fishes.”

Further “proof” was provided by a torrent of accusations of racism against anyone who publicly suggested that the virus originated in a Chinese lab. The State Department’s Global Engagement Center added a federal fist to the debate, pressuring Twitter to suppress hundreds of thousands of accounts (including thousands of average Americans) in early 2020 for the crime of suggesting that Covid originated in a lab. Bureaucrats secretly decided that wildly exaggerated forecasts of pandemic mortality made the First Amendment null and void. 

If Covid-19 had been initially recognized as the result of one of the biggest government boondoggles in history, it would have been far more difficult for American politicians and government scientists to pirouette as saviors as they seized sway over daily life. 

The virus that the NIH financed provided push-button dictatorial power to politicians at every level of government. In the name of saving lives, politicians entitled themselves to destroy an unlimited number of livelihoods. Most governors responded to Covid-19 by dropping the equivalent of a Reverse Neutron Bomb — something that destroys the economy while leaving human beings unharmed. But the only way to assume people were uninjured was to presume that their lives were totally detached from their jobs, bank accounts, mortgage and rent payments, and friends and family.

A virus with a 99+% survival rate spawned a 100% presumption in favor of despotism. From the start of the pandemic, many people who swore allegiance to “science and data” also believed that absolute power would keep them safe. Doubters became dissidents who deserved to be covertly silenced. 

Shutdown advocates appealed to science like righteous priests invoking God and the Bible to sanctify scourging enemies. But the “science” was often farcically unreliable. Mandatory mask mandates became the new version of the Emancipation Proclamation. Fauci and other top officials deceived Americans into believing that cloth masks offered far more protection than they delivered. Do Americans finally recognize that the federal government was the biggest source of disinformation during the pandemic?

A century ago, historian Henry Adams declared that politics has “always been the systematic organization of hatreds.” Covid-19 policies were so disruptive in part because politicians intentionally sought to maximize fear and rage against anyone who refused to submit to any dictate. After the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines collapsed, Biden responded by dictating that a hundred million American adults must get injected based on his personal decree.

A few weeks later at a CNN town hall, Biden derided vaccine skeptics as murderers who only wanted “the freedom to kill you” with Covid. A few months later, a Rasmussen poll found that 59% of Democratic voters favored house arrest for the unvaccinated, and 45% favored locking the unvaxxed into government detention facilities. Almost half of Democrats favored empowering the government to “fine or imprison individuals who publicly question the efficacy of the existing Covid-19 vaccines on social media, television, radio, or in online or digital publications.” But hatred proved to be as ineffective as the Pfizer vaccine when it came to fighting Covid-19.

Fauci, who was also Biden’s chief medical advisor, justified Covid mandates because average citizens “don’t have the ability” to determine what is best for them. But Congressional investigations revealed that Fauci was at the center of string-pulling to shirk responsibility for the Wuhan debacle. After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) suggested prosecuting Fauci for false testimony on bankrolling “gain-of-function” research, Fauci howled that his critics are “really criticizing science because I represent science. That’s dangerous.” But not nearly as dangerous as vesting vast power in secretive federal agencies.

On September 20, 2023, the Biden administration belatedly banned the Wuhan Institute of Virology from receiving any US government research funding for 10 years as punishment for its unauthorized gain-of-function experiments on bat coronaviruses. But why did the Biden administration omit the same condemnation and similar prohibitions from any American scientist, institute, or government officials that had any role in this debacle? 

Instead of Tony Fauci bobbleheads, the slogan “Your Government at Work” superimposed atop a million American caskets captured the reality of Covid-19. 

An earlier version of this piece was posted by The Libertarian Institute

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 22:10

CIA Admits COVID-19 "More Likely" Came From Chinese Lab

CIA Admits COVID-19 "More Likely" Came From Chinese Lab

Having been temporarily banned from Twitter, Facebook, and Google over 'COVID conspiracy theories' (when we first suggested in January 2020 that the fact there was a Level 4 virus lab in Wuhan was likely not a coincidence to the origin of COVID), and being accused by intel officials of being a propaganda spreading site, we couldn't help but see the irony (and not rage, frustration, or desire for retribution), when the CIA itself confirmed this week that it found a lab origin “more likely” for the COVID-19 pandemic, joining two other top U.S. agencies that have previously made the assessment.

“CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting,” a spokesperson for the agency said in a Jan. 25 statement to media outlets.

More comical is the fact that, despite no actual physical evidence of a natural origin, the agency emphasized that it has “low confidence” in the assessment and still considers it plausible that the virus came from nature.

The CIA will “continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment,” the spokesperson said.

President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, testifies before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

As Eva Fu reports for The Epoch Times, the assessment marks a shift in stance from the intelligence agency that has for years refrained from making a conclusion on the issue, citing lack of information.

John Ratcliffe, the new CIA director, has long supported the lab leak possibility, telling a congressional panel in April 2023 that it’s the “only explanation” for the disease that has since killed millions around the globe.

After gaining Senate confirmation, Ratcliffe told Breitbart News that addressing the pandemic origin would be a “day one” priority for him.

“I’ve been on record, as you know, in saying I think our intelligence, our science, and our common sense all really dictates that the origins of COVID was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,” he said, adding that he plans to look at intelligence and get the agency “off the sidelines.”

The international efforts to get more clarity about the source of the virus from China have made little headway.

In late December 2024, the World Health Organization repeated a request for Beijing to share COVID-related data.

“This is a moral and scientific imperative,” the organization said. “Without transparency, sharing, and cooperation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics.”

In the years since the pandemic broke out from central Chinese city Wuhan, Beijing has silenced on-the-ground citizen journalists, doctors, and academics who sought to shed light on the issue or criticize the regime’s handling of the virus.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), the Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, said he was pleased to see the CIA’s assessment.

“I’ve said from the beginning that COVID likely originated in the Wuhan labs. Communist China covered it up and the liberal media covered for them,” he said in a Jan. 25 statement “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”

The FBI and the Energy Department have previously assessed that the virus had originated from a lab. The State Department, under the first Trump administration, said in a fact sheet that several researchers had fallen sick with COVID-like symptoms in the autumn of 2019, months before the pandemic exploded to a global scale.

Leaked Chinese documents that The Epoch Times obtained also show that Chinese hospitals were treating patients with COVID-like symptoms months before the regime’s official timeline.

“The Chinese government, it seems to me, has been doing its best to try to thwart and obfuscate the work here—the work that we’re doing, the work that our U.S. government and close foreign partners are doing. And that’s unfortunate for everybody,” then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said in early 2023.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 20:25

Crank Your Amps To 11

Crank Your Amps To 11

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

In this industry we are always trying to decipher the signal from the noise. That is never easy, but the level of “noise” coming out of D.C. and elsewhere is making it extremely difficult to identify signals. Some weekend T-Reports write themselves (thankfully) and some are a struggle.

  • What economic data is relevant and indicative of potential trends going forward?
  • How much of the data is largely irrelevant if policies shift dramatically?

The level of noise is so high that all I could think of was Spinal Tap and how they were fortunate that their amps went to 11, while everyone else’s only went to 10.

Given all the hype surrounding the first 24 hours and all of the executive orders, I’m surprised that I am more confused, rather than less confused, by the trajectory of this administration (one week into it).

Most Surprised by…

Bitcoin. I am most surprised that Bitcoin isn’t a lot higher. This administration seems keen to embrace crypto. There is a lot of chatter about the potential for Bitcoin or crypto reserves. Is Bitcoin failing to break a lot higher because people believe that there are enough politicians in D.C. who think it isn’t a good idea (or even think that it is a bad idea) to use tax dollars to buy and hold crypto? Is there a belief that the crypto community can’t donate enough money to politicians to get some kind of a deal through? Or is the question on Kalshi too narrow and the reserve will include things other than just Bitcoin? We linked to that betting site in last weekend’s report - $Trump, TikTok, and Trea$urie$. Or, quite simply, has so much been priced in that we will need to see a lot more out of D.C. to get another big rally? If so, that has implications for the broader market.

Least Surprised by…

The number of responses on this month’s Around the World. Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group weighed in on:

  • The Ceasefire in Gaza.
  • Iran Signing a Strategic Partnership Pact with Russia.
  • The Escalation in the War between Russia and Ukraine.
  • The Chinese Cyber Threat.
  • The U.S. “Engagement” with Greenland.
Most Intrigued by…

DeepSeek. Given all the “noise” around TikTok, you would think that would be a focus, but DeepSeek caught my attention. It seems like this AI model may have been out there for some time, but it exploded in my social media timeline this weekend. On the face of it, we have an AI tool that is cheaper to build and possibly better than existing AI platforms. The “catch” is that it is a Chinese developed AI engine. Given privacy concerns and the cyber threats, I cannot help but wonder who would (or should) use it?

That is, assuming it is real. Periodically we used to get stories about some group achieving “cold fusion” that never turned out to be real, and lately, some similar claims about quantum computing have yet to pan out in reality.

In any case, if extremely good AI can be built with “old school” chips, it would have a lot of ramifications for this market. It does seem unbelievable in some ways but reminds us of the discussion we’ve been having about China’s efforts to develop chips of their own.

  • The smallest chips require state of the art tech manufacturing to be built efficiently. However, small chips can be made inefficiently using old tech. It isn’t an efficient way to make the thinnest chips, but it can be accomplished to a degree, which is presumably how China is making some of its smallest chips (assuming they haven’t figured out how to get access to state of the art tech that the U.S. and others are trying to prevent China from obtaining).
  • The “packaging” (vertically stacking multiple chips) may play a bigger role in semiconductors continuing to adhere to Moore’s Law (or some variation of it) as opposed to just creating smaller and smaller chips. While packaging is also challenging, it is not necessarily “state of the art” challenging, which would reduce “our” lead over Chinese chipmakers.

Given the importance of AI in our markets (if not yet in our economy), this “story” could be interesting (and also harkens back to the question at the end of the first section – how much is priced in already?).

A Little Concerned by…

Delinquencies. This is something we are digging into in more detail as it has become a common theme in more meetings. With student loan forgiveness becoming a thing of the past (it was never really a thing) and no real clarity on how things like not taxing tips will play out, there are more and more questions about some segments of the consumer. With hopes of much lower interest rates being dashed (for now) the concern about consumption is increasing (at least for those who didn’t load up on crypto).

We are digging through the various metrics on delinquencies to figure out if this is something that should be a larger concern or not. The fact that it is coming up more in conversations means it definitely warrants some further digging. If it is true that consumers are stretched, then it shines a different light on what policies are needed, and how quickly they are needed, to ensure that the economic data doesn’t tumble.

A recession isn’t on anyone’s mind right now, and maybe it should be? It surprised us by not showing up when everyone was talking about it, so maybe a recession will make a surprise entrance? Doubtful, but time to start digging into the data that is concerning and possibly difficult to turn around.

A Little Confused by…

Inflation. Too much to unpack here, but we are working on a chart package. Of all the economic data that will be influenced by policies out of D.C., inflation is the most significant, so maybe it is a fool’s errand to think too much about it, but here are some things that keep coming to mind:

The owners equivalent rent (OER) is once again lagging virtually any “real time” measure of rent. This time around it is overstating rent inflation in CPI data. We discussed the quandary of Making Policy on Bad Data and that remains a concern.

Can the president tell the Fed what to do? No. Can the president enact policies that reduce inflation and allow the Fed to cut? Yes, but that might be difficult.

Is inflation simply oil? No, though the president, in my opinion, is not completely wrong to focus on getting oil prices lower as a strategy to lower inflation.

What impact will tariffs and immigration policy have on inflation? We still don’t really know how these “day 1” policies are going to play out, so it is difficult to estimate. Frankly, what has been done on the tariff front and on immigration has been fairly benign. That may continue, though the risk of a hiccup on the tariff front is rising as so much (maybe too much) good news is being priced in.

It is difficult enough to form good policy when the data is noisy, but when we are surrounded by even more noise out of D.C., it will be increasingly difficult not to make policy mistakes.

Bottom Line

Set your amps to 11 and prepare to deal with the noise! Fortunately, from a T-Report perspective, noise fits our 2025 theme of “messy, but manageable.”

Expect weakness in both bonds and stocks in the coming days and weeks. So much good has been priced in that it will be difficult for bonds or stocks to surprise to the upside. We’ve been looking to Bitcoin as a “tell” and even that isn’t sending a strong buy signal any longer (even with mounting evidence that it should be).

Caution is the order of the day as we try to filter the signal from the immense amount of noise and also get back to looking for the trends that will be difficult to turn around.

Good luck and maybe before or after football today, it is worth finding and watching a good mockumentary – we could all use a laugh or two.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 19:50

The Algorithmic Age

The Algorithmic Age

Authored by Josh Stylman via The Brownstone Institute,

Having explored the physical and psychological mechanisms of control in a previous article, and their deployment through cultural engineering in yet another article, we now turn to their ultimate evolution: the automation of consciousness control through digital systems.

In my research on the tech-industrial complex, I’ve documented how today’s digital giants weren’t simply co-opted by power structures—many were potentially designed from their inception as tools for mass surveillance and social control. From Google’s origins in a DARPA-funded CIA project to Amazon’s founder Jeff Bezos’ familial ties to ARPA, these weren’t just successful startups that later aligned with government interests

What Tavistock discovered through years of careful study—emotional resonance trumps facts, peer influence outweighs authority, and indirect manipulation succeeds where direct propaganda fails—now forms the foundational logic of social media algorithms. Facebook’s emotion manipulation study and Netflix’s A/B testing of thumbnails (explored in detail later) exemplify the digital automation of these century-old insights, as AI systems perform billions of real-time experiments, continuously refining the art of influence at an unprecedented scale.

Just as Laurel Cc served as a physical space for steering culture, today’s digital platforms function as virtual laboratories for consciousness control—reaching further and operating with far greater precision. Social media platforms have scaled these principles through ‘influencer’ amplification and engagement metrics. The discovery that indirect influence outperforms direct propaganda now shapes how platforms subtly adjust content visibility. What once required years of meticulous psychological study can now be tested and optimized in real-time, with algorithms leveraging billions of interactions to perfect their methods of influence.

The manipulation of music reflects a broader evolution in cultural control: what began with localized programming, like Laurel Canyon’s experiments in counterculture, has now transitioned into global, algorithmically-driven systems. These digital tools automate the same mechanisms, shaping consciousness on an unprecedented scale

Netflix’s approach parallels Bernays’ manipulation principles in digital form—perhaps unsurprisingly, as co-founder Marc Randolph was Bernays’ great-nephew and Sigmund Freud’s great-grand-nephew. Where Bernays used focus groups to test messaging, Netflix conducts massive A/B testing of thumbnails and titles, showing different images to different users based on their psychological profiles.

Their recommendation algorithm doesn’t just suggest content—it shapes viewing patterns by controlling visibility and context, similar to how Bernays orchestrated comprehensive promotional campaigns that shaped public perception through multiple channels. Just as Bernays understood how to create the perfect environment to sell products—like promoting music rooms in homes to sell pianos—Netflix crafts personalized interfaces that guide viewers toward specific content choices. Their approach to original content production similarly relies on analyzing mass psychological data to craft narratives for specific demographic segments.

More insidiously, Netflix’s content strategy actively shapes social consciousness through selective promotion and burial of content. While films supporting establishment narratives receive prominent placement, documentaries questioning official accounts often find themselves buried in the platform’s least visible categories or excluded from recommendation algorithms entirely. Even successful films like What Is a Woman? faced systematic suppression across multiple platforms, demonstrating how digital gatekeepers can effectively erase challenging perspectives while maintaining the illusion of open access.

I experienced this censorship firsthand. I was fortunate enough to serve as a producer for Anecdotals, directed by Jennifer Sharp, a film documenting Covid-19 vaccine injuries, including her own. YouTube removed it on Day One, claiming individuals couldn’t discuss their own vaccine experiences. Only after Senator Ron Johnson’s intervention was the film reinstated—a telling example of how platform censorship silences personal narratives that challenge official accounts.

This gatekeeping extends across the digital landscape. By controlling which documentaries appear prominently, which foreign films reach American audiences, and which perspectives get highlighted in their original programming, platforms like Netflix act as cultural gatekeepers—just as Bernays managed public perception for his corporate clients. Where earlier systems relied on human gatekeepers to shape culture, streaming platforms use data analytics and recommendation algorithms to automate the steering of consciousness. The platform’s content strategy and promotion systems represent Bernays’ principles of psychological manipulation operating at an unprecedented scale.

Reality TV: Engineering the Self 

Before social media turned billions into their own content creators, Reality TV perfected the template for self-commodification. The Kardashians exemplified this transition: transforming from reality TV stars into digital-age influencers, they showed how to convert personal authenticity into a marketable brand. Their show didn’t just reshape societal norms around wealth and consumption—it provided a masterclass in abandoning genuine human experience for carefully curated performance. Audiences learned that being oneself was less valuable than becoming a brand, that authentic moments mattered less than engineered content, and that real relationships were secondary to networked influence.

This transformation from person to persona would reach its apex with social media, where billions now willingly participate in their own behavioral modification. Users learn to suppress authentic expression in favor of algorithmic rewards, to filter genuine experience through the lens of potential content, and to value themselves not by internal measures but through metrics of likes and shares. What Reality TV pioneered—the voluntary surrender of privacy, the replacement of authentic self with marketable image, the transformation of life into content—social media would democratize at a global scale. Now anyone could become their own reality show, trading authenticity for engagement.

Instagram epitomizes this transformation, training users to view their lives as content to be curated, their experiences as photo opportunities, and their memories as stories to be shared with the public. The platform’s ‘influencer’ economy turns authentic moments into marketing opportunities, teaching users to modify their actual behavior—where they go, what they eat, how they dress—to create content that algorithms will reward. This isn’t just sharing life online—it’s reshaping life itself to serve the digital marketplace.

Even as these systems grow more pervasive, their limits are becoming increasingly visible. The same tools that enable manipulating cultural currents also reveal its fragility, as audiences begin to challenge manipulative narratives.

Cracks in the System

Despite its sophistication, the system of control is beginning to show cracks. Increasingly, the public is pushing back against blatant attempts at cultural engineering, as evidenced by current consumer and electoral rejections.

Recent attempts at obvious cultural exploitation, such as corporate marketing campaigns and celebrity-driven narratives, have begun to fail, signaling a turning point in public tolerance for manipulation. When Bud Light and Target—companies with their own deep establishment connections—faced massive consumer backlash in 2023 over their social messaging campaigns, the speed and scale of the rejection marked a significant shift in consumer behavior. Major investment firms like BlackRock faced unprecedented pushback against ESG initiatives, seeing significant outflows that forced them to recalibrate their approach. Even celebrity influence lost its power to shape public opinion—when dozens of A-list celebrities united behind one candidate in the 2024 election, their coordinated endorsements not only failed to sway voters but may have backfired, suggesting a growing public fatigue with manufactured consensus.

The public is increasingly recognizing these manipulation patterns. When viral videos expose dozens of news anchors reading identical scripts about ‘threats to our democracy,’ the facade of independent journalism crumbles, revealing the continued operation of systematic narrative control. Legacy media’s authority is crumbling, with frequent exposures of staged narratives and misrepresented sources revealing the persistence of centralized messaging systems.

Even the fact-checking industry, designed to bolster official narratives, faces growing skepticism as people discover that these ‘independent’ arbiters of truth are often funded by the very power structures they claim to monitor. The supposed guardians of truth serve instead as enforcers of acceptable thought, their funding trails leading directly to the organizations they’re meant to oversee.

The public awakening extends beyond corporate messaging to a broader realization that supposedly organic social changes are often engineered. For example, while most people only became aware of the Tavistock Institute through recent controversies about gender-affirming care, their reaction hints at a deeper realization: that cultural shifts long accepted as natural evolution might instead have institutional authors. Though few still understand Tavistock’s historic role in shaping culture since our grandparents’ time, a growing number of people are questioning whether seemingly spontaneous social transformations may have been, in fact, deliberately orchestrated.

This growing recognition signals a fundamental shift: as audiences become more conscious of manipulation methods, the effectiveness of these control systems begins to diminish. Yet the system is designed to provoke intense emotional responses—the more outrageous the better—precisely to prevent critical analysis. By keeping the public in a constant state of reactionary outrage, whether defending or attacking figures like Trump or Musk, it successfully distracts from examining the underlying power structures these figures operate within. The heightened emotional state serves as a perfect shield against rational inquiry.

Before examining today’s digital control mechanisms in detail, the evolution from Edison’s hardware monopolies to Tavistock’s psychological operations to today’s algorithmic control systems reveals more than a natural historical progression—it shows how each stage intentionally built upon the last to achieve the same goal. Physical control of media distribution evolved into psychological manipulation of content, which has now been automated through digital systems. As AI systems become more sophisticated, they don’t just automate these control mechanisms—they perfect them, learning and adapting in real time across billions of interactions.

We can visualize how distinct domains of power—finance, media, intelligence, and culture—have converged into an integrated grid of social control. While these systems initially operated independently, they now function as a unified network, each reinforcing and amplifying the others. This framework, refined over a century, reaches its ultimate expression in the digital age, where algorithms automate what once required elaborate coordination between human authorities.

The Digital Endgame

Today’s digital platforms represent the culmination of control methods developed over the past century. Where their researchers once had to manually study group dynamics and psychological responses, AI systems now perform billions of real-time experiments, continuously refining their influence techniques through massive data analysis and behavioral tracking. What Thomas Edison achieved through physical control of films, modern tech companies now accomplish through algorithms and automated content moderation.

The convergence of surveillance, algorithms, and financial systems represents not just an evolution in technique but an escalation in scope. This convergence appears by design. Consider that Facebook launched the same day DARPA shut down ‘LifeLog,‘ their project to track a person’s ‘entire existence’ online. Or that major tech platforms now employ numerous former intelligence operatives in their ‘Trust & Safety’ teams, determining what content gets amplified or suppressed. 

Social media platforms capture detailed behavioral data, which algorithms analyze to predict and shape user actions. This data increasingly feeds into financial systems through credit scoring, targeted advertising, and emerging Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Together, these create a closed loop where surveillance refines targeting, shapes economic incentives, and enforces compliance with dominant order norms at the most granular level.

This evolution manifests in concrete ways:

  • Edison’s infrastructure monopoly became platform ownership

  • Tavistock’s psychology studies became social media algorithms

  • Operation Mockingbird’s media infiltration became automated content moderation

  • The Hays Code’s moral controls became ‘community guidelines

More specifically, Edison’s original blueprint for control evolved into digital form:

  • His control of production equipment became platform ownership and cloud infrastructure

  • Theater distribution control became algorithmic visibility

  • Patent enforcement became Terms of Service

  • Financial blacklisting became demonetization

  • His definition of ‘authorized’ content became ‘community standards'”

Edison’s patent monopoly allowed him to dictate which films could be shown and where—just as today’s tech platforms use Terms of Service, IP rights, and algorithmic visibility to determine what content reaches audiences. Where Edison could simply deny theaters access to films, modern platforms can quietly reduce visibility through “shadow banning” or demonetization.

This evolution from manual to algorithmic control reflects a century of refinement. Where the Hays Code explicitly banned content, AI systems now subtly deprioritize it. Where Operation Mockingbird required human editors, recommendation algorithms now automatically shape information flow. The mechanisms haven’t disappeared—they’ve become invisible, automated, and far more effective.

The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated how thoroughly and quickly modern control systems could manufacture consensus and enforce compliance. Within weeks, established scientific principles about natural immunity, outdoor transmission, and focused protection were replaced by a new orthodoxy. 

Social media algorithms were programmed to amplify fear-based content while suppressing alternative viewpoints, while news outlets coordinated messaging to maintain narrative control, and financial pressures ensured institutional compliance. 

Just as Rockefeller’s early capture of medical institutions shaped the boundaries of acceptable knowledge a century ago, the pandemic response demonstrated how thoroughly this system could activate in a crisis. The same mechanisms that once defined ‘scientific’ versus ‘alternative’ medicine now determined which public health approaches could be discussed and which would be systematically suppressed. 

The Great Barrington Declaration scientists found themselves erased not just through typical censorship, but through the invisible hand of algorithmic suppression—their views buried in search results, their discussions flagged as misinformation, their professional reputations questioned by coordinated media campaigns. This trifecta of suppression rendered dissenting perspectives effectively invisible, demonstrating how modern platforms can converge with state power to erase opposition while maintaining the illusion of independent oversight. Most users never realize what they’re not seeing—the most effective censorship is invisible to its targets.

Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter offered a crack of light, exposing previously hidden practices like shadow banning and algorithmic content suppression through the release of the Twitter Files. These revelations demonstrated how thoroughly platforms had integrated government influence into their moderation policies—whether through direct pressure or voluntary compliance—erasing dissent under the guise of ‘maintaining community standards.’ Yet even Musk acknowledged the limits of free expression within this framework, stating that ‘freedom of speech doesn’t mean freedom of reach.’ This admission underscores the enduring reality: even under new leadership, platforms remain bound by the algorithms and incentives that shape visibility, influence, and economic viability.

Perhaps the ultimate expression of this evolution is the proposed introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which transform social control mechanisms into financial infrastructure. The merger of ESG metrics with digital currency creates unprecedented granular control—every purchase, every transaction, every economic choice becomes subject to automated social compliance scoring. 

This fusion of financial surveillance with behavioral control represents the ultimate expression of the control systems that began with Edison’s physical monopolies. By embedding surveillance into currency itself, governments and corporations gain the ability to monitor, restrict, and manipulate transactions based on compliance with official criteria—from carbon usage limits to diversity metrics to social credit scores. These systems could render dissent not just punishable, but economically impossible—restricting access to basic necessities like food, housing, and transportation for those who fail to comply with approved behaviors.

What began with Tavistock’s careful study of mass psychology, tested through Facebook’s crude emotion experiments, and perfected through modern algorithmic systems, represents more than a century of evolving social control. Each stage built upon the last: from physical monopolies to psychological manipulation to digital automation. Today’s social media platforms don’t just study human behavior—they shape it algorithmically, automating mass psychological manipulation through billions of daily interactions.

Unplugging from the Matrix: A Path Back to Reality

Understanding these systems is the first step toward liberation. As the machinery of control reaches its peak, so too does the opportunity for resistance. The endgame for centralized power presents a paradox: the same systems designed to limit freedom also expose their own vulnerabilities. 

While the evolution from Edison’s physical monopolies to today’s invisible algorithmic controls may feel overwhelming, it reveals a crucial truth: these mechanisms are constructed—and what is constructed can be dismantled or circumvented.

We can already see glimmers of resistance. As I’ve observed in my investigation of Big Tech’s origins, people are increasingly demanding transparency and authenticity—and once they see these control systems, they don’t unsee them. Public backlash against obvious ideological sculpting—from corporate virtue-signaling campaigns to platform censorship—suggests an awakening to these methods of control. The public rejection of corporate news networks in favor of independent journalism, the mass exodus from manipulative social media platforms to decentralized alternatives, and the growing movement toward local community building all demonstrate how awareness leads to action.

The rise of platforms committed to free speech, even within centralized systems, shows that alternatives to algorithmic manipulation are possible. By championing transparency, reducing reliance on automated content moderation, and supporting the open exchange of ideas, these platforms challenge the status quo and push back against the dominance of centralized narratives. Building on these principles, truly decentralized networks represent our best hope for resistance: by eliminating gatekeepers entirely, they offer the greatest potential to counter hierarchical control and empower authentic expression.

The battle for freedom of consciousness is now our most fundamental struggle. Without it, we are not autonomous actors but non-player characters (NPCs) in someone else’s game, making seemingly free choices within carefully constructed parameters. Each time we question an algorithmic recommendation or seek out independent voices, we crack the control matrix. When we build in-person local communities and support decentralized platforms, we create spaces beyond algorithmic manipulation. These aren’t just acts of resistance—they’re steps toward reclaiming our autonomy as conscious human actors rather than programmed NPCs.

The choice between authentic consciousness and programmed behavior requires daily discernment. We can passively consume curated content or actively seek diverse perspectives. We can accept algorithmic suggestions or consciously choose our information sources. We can isolate ourselves in digital bubbles or build real-world communities of resistance.

Our liberation begins with recognition: these systems of control, though powerful, are not inevitable. They were constructed, and they can be dismantled. By embracing creativity, fostering authentic connection, and restoring our sovereignty, we don’t just resist the control matrix—we reclaim our fundamental right to author our own destiny. The future belongs to those aware enough to see the system, brave enough to reject it, and creative enough to build something better.

*  *  *

Essential Resources for Understanding Power and Influence

Friends and readers often ask where they can learn more about the esoteric topics I explore, particularly the intersections of culture, power, and social control. This curated list of resources has been instrumental in shaping my understanding of how power structures operate, influence, and shape public consciousness. These works span disciplines—from history and psychology to investigative journalism and cultural critique.

I share these not as a definitive roadmap but as an invitation to independent inquiry. In an era when algorithms increasingly shape what we see and think, engaging with diverse, well-researched perspectives becomes an act of empowerment. I hope the resources below serve as valuable starting points for those seeking to understand the deeper systems that shape our world.

Books:

  1. Dave McGowan, Weird Scenes Inside the Canyon
    Detailed investigation of the Laurel Canyon music scene and its military/intelligence connections.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18681494-weird-scenes-inside-the-canyon
  2. John Coleman, The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations
    Inside perspective on one of the key architects of mass psychological manipulation.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7863459-the-tavistock-institute-of-human-relations?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_22
  3. John Coleman, The Committee of 300
    An exploration of the power structures shaping global policies, culture, and narratives.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/105897.The_Committee_of_300
  4. Miles Copeland, The Game of Nations
    Insights from a former CIA operative on covert operations and manipulation of public perception.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1344357.The_Game_of_Nations
  5. Daniel Estulin, Tavistock Institute: Social Engineering the Masses
    Contemporary analysis of ongoing influence operations.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/29351771-tavistock-institute
  6. Edward Bernays, Propaganda
    A foundational work on the manipulation of public opinion and the psychology behind mass persuasion.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/191140.Propaganda
  7. Neil Postman, Amusing Ourselves to Death
    An exploration of how entertainment and media shape public consciousness and discourse.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/74034.Amusing_Ourselves_to_Death
  8. Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man
    A critical analysis of how media environments influence human perception and behavior.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/61786.Understanding_Media
  9. Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism
    In-depth exploration of how technology companies exploit personal data for control and profit.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26195941-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism
  10. Mark Crispin Miller, Boxed In: The Culture of TV
    A critique of television as a medium of social and psychological control.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1342360.Boxed_In
  11. Gore Vidal, Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace
    Essays on the military-industrial complex and its ties to media narratives.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53078.Perpetual_War_for_Perpetual_Peace
  12. Jay Dyer, Esoteric Hollywood (Parts 1 & 2)
    A deep dive into the occult, intelligence connections, and symbolic manipulation in Hollywood films.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32851888-esoteric-hollywood
  13. Tom O’Neill, Chaos: Charles Manson, the CIA, and the Secret History of the Sixties
    A riveting investigation into the CIA’s covert experiments and their connections to the counterculture and Charles Manson.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/43015073-chaos
  14. The Memoirs of Billy Shears
    Presented as historical fiction, this book delves into the Paul McCartney replacement conspiracy, blending elements of autobiography, cultural critique, and an exploration of The Beatles’ role as a socially engineered phenomenon that shaped and redirected 20th-century youth culture.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31178916-the-memoirs-of-billy-shears
  15. Paul L. Williams, Operation Gladio: The Unholy Alliance Between the Vatican, the CIA, and the Mafia
    A detailed account of covert operations, propaganda, and the intelligence community’s hidden influence on global events.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22245430-operation-gladio
  16. Konstandinos Kalimtgis, Dope, Inc.: Britain’s Opium War Against the World
    An explosive investigation into the global drug trade, exposing its ties to elite financial and political institutions.
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16145722-dope-inc 

Essential Voices and Further Investigations:

  1. Mike Williams, Sage of Quay
    Comprehensive documentation of The Beatles, Tavistock, and their role in cultural manipulation.
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtimXpaec1UWO4lHSYNgfvg
  2. Michael Benz, Foundation for Freedom Online
    Current analysis of media manipulation and digital censorship infrastructure.
    https://foundationforfreedomonline.com
  3. Courtney Turner, The Courtney Turner Podcast
    Engaging conversations on cultural engineering, Tavistock’s legacy, and modern social control mechanisms.
    https://www.courtneyturner.com/podcast
  4. Jay Dyer, Jay’s Analysis Deep dives into Hollywood, esoteric symbolism, and the intersection of culture, power, and intelligence networks.
    https://jaysanalysis.com
  5. Solari Report – Catherine Austin Fitts
    A comprehensive resource exploring the financial, geopolitical, and systemic structures shaping global events, with unparalleled research into transparency, hidden systems, and actionable solutions.
    https://home.solari.com
  6. Whitney Webb, Unlimited Hangout
    Investigative reporting on intelligence agencies, corporate power, and media manipulation.
    https://unlimitedhangout.com
  7. Monica Perez, The Monica Perez Show
    Thought-provoking discussions on propaganda, psychological operations, and media narratives.
    https://monicaperezshow.com
  8. Sam Tripoli, Tin Foil Hat Podcast
    Unfiltered conversations exploring alternative theories, hidden histories, and systemic manipulation.
    https://samtripoli.com/tin-foil-hat
  9. William Ramsey Investigates
    In-depth examinations of occult influences, historical conspiracies, and intelligence operations shaping society.
    https://www.williamramseyinvestigates.com
  10. Adam Curtis, The Century of the Self (Documentary)
    A powerful visual journey through the evolution of psychological manipulation in media and advertising.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnPmg0R1M04
Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 18:40

DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Freeze Student Debt, Environmental Cases

DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Freeze Student Debt, Environmental Cases

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Justice Department reversed the agency’s position on a redistricting dispute currently before the U.S. Supreme Court. At the same time, the department asked the justices to halt the processing of pending student loan and environmental regulation cases.

The new court filings were issued on Jan. 24, days after President Donald Trump was inaugurated.

Position changes in high-profile court cases often take place when a new party assumes the presidency. After President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, the Department of Justice (DOJ) also changed position on several court cases that were pending at the time.

The DOJ’s new court filings leave the door open to the Supreme Court resuming processing of the student debt and environmental cases in the future, but also suggest the cases may become moot if the Trump administration decides to undo the Biden administration policies that prompted the various lawsuits.

Acting Solicitor General Sarah M. Harris, who is currently the Trump administration’s top lawyer at the Supreme Court, said in a new court filing that the DOJ has changed its position in the redistricting case.

She is also asking the court to halt all written briefing deadlines in the student loan case and two environmental cases, which would suspend the processing of those cases indefinitely. Before the court hears oral argument in a case, it typically asks the litigants to file briefs outlining the legal arguments they intend to make.

In legal parlance, Harris filed motions to hold the briefing schedule in those three cases in abeyance. In other words, she asked the court to suspend briefings until the new administration can decide how to proceed.

Trump has nominated attorney John Sauer as solicitor general. Sauer, who was Missouri’s solicitor general from 2017, represented Trump at the Supreme Court in his successful bid for immunity after being prosecuted for attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

Student Debt Case

Harris filed an abeyance motion with the Supreme Court in U.S. Department of Education v. Career Colleges and Schools of Texas. The court granted the petition on Jan. 10. The oral argument has not been scheduled.

An association of colleges challenged the Biden-era Department of Education’s rule establishing the procedures that student borrowers can follow to show that they were defrauded by the schools they attended and thereby qualify for student loan forgiveness. Some borrowers claim that schools committed fraud by using unethical recruitment tactics or by advertising exaggerated post-graduation job placement figures.

A lower court issued a ruling halting the department-directed expansion of defenses that student loan borrowers can use to contest repayment.

“After the change in Administration, the Acting Secretary of Education has determined that the Department should reassess the basis for and soundness of the Department’s borrower-defense regulations,” Harris wrote in the motion.

California Emissions Dispute

Harris filed an abeyance motion with the high court in Diamond Alternative Energy LLC v. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The Supreme Court agreed on Dec. 13, 2024, to decide whether it would revive a lawsuit filed by energy companies over California’s tough vehicle emissions standards. The court has not yet scheduled oral argument in the case.

A lower court ruled that California had the authority to regulate tailpipe emissions. That court held that the energy companies bringing the legal action could not demonstrate that they had legal standing to sue, meaning they couldn’t show a strong enough connection to the claim to justify their participation in the lawsuit.

Energy companies told the Supreme Court in their petition that they will suffer economic harm if California, whose state economy is large, is allowed to continue imposing vehicle emissions standards that are more stringent than those mandated by the federal government.

California’s policy stances are influential, and several states have already adopted its regulatory framework for automobiles. California says its policies are needed to fight climate change by driving down demand for liquid fuel.

“After the change in Administration, EPA’s Acting Administrator has determined that the agency should reassess the basis for and soundness of the 2022 reinstatement decision,” Harris wrote, referring to a regulatory action taken by the EPA.

“Such a reassessment could obviate the need for this Court to determine whether petitioners had Article III standing to challenge that decision.”

Article III of the U.S. Constitution governs federal courts and has been interpreted as stating those courts may only hear cases involving actual controversies in which at least one litigant has standing to sue.

Other Environmental Cases

The DOJ also asked the Supreme Court to pause the processing of two other cases that dispute EPA actions.

Both are about the federal Clean Air Act, which provides that challenges to “nationally applicable regulations” may “be filed only” in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

In the first case, Oklahoma v. EPA, which has been consolidated with Pacificorp v. EPA, Oklahoma and other states argue that state disputes over EPA policies should be heard in regional circuit courts, rather than in the nation’s capital.

The Supreme Court granted the petition on Oct. 21, 2024. No oral argument has yet been scheduled.

At issue is the EPA’s “good neighbor” rule that cracks down on states whose industries are said to be contributing to smog.

The Clean Air Act requires each state to adopt an implementation plan to comply with national standards, which the EPA then reviews, but in 2023, the agency drafted its own rule after rejecting 23 states’ plans for meeting national ozone standards.

In February 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit determined that challenges to EPA disapproval of the state plans could be filed only in the D.C. Circuit.

The Supreme Court voted 5–4 on June 27, 2024, to temporarily put the EPA’s rule on hold. The court held that the emissions-reduction standards established by the EPA’s plan would probably cause irreversible harm to several of the affected states unless the plan were stayed until it could be reviewed by the lower courts.

The states said the regulation was illegal, costly, and could lead to blackouts, while the EPA said the rule was urgently needed to fight air pollution. They said the EPA’s plan undermines the principles of the Clean Air Act.

In the second case, EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining, oil refineries argue they should be exempted from a federal mandate that the gasoline they produce should be made with a percentage of ethanol.

The Supreme Court approved the petition on Oct. 21, 2024. Oral argument has not been scheduled by the court.

The EPA argued the case should be heard by the D.C. Circuit, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit found in November 2023 that it—and not the D.C. Circuit—was the proper forum for that appeal.

Harris used identical language in part of the Oklahoma v. EPA abeyance motion and the EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining abeyance motion.

“After the change in Administration, EPA’s Acting Administrator has determined that the agency should reassess the basis for and soundness of the underlying disapproval action,” Harris wrote. “Such a reassessment could obviate the need for this Court to determine the proper venue for challenges to that action.”

Redistricting Case

In the redistricting case, the Supreme Court decided on Nov. 4, 2024, the day before the presidential election, to take up the racial gerrymandering dispute known as Louisiana v. Callais, which was consolidated with the related case of Robinson v. Callais.

Gerrymandering is the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to favor a particular party or constituency.

A federal district judge in 2022 had ordered the Republican-controlled Louisiana State Legislature to revise its electoral map, which provided for one black-majority congressional district, because it discriminated against black voters, who constitute almost one-third of the state’s population.

The Legislature complied, approving a new map that featured two black-majority districts. Map opponents told the Supreme Court in briefs that the new redistricting plan discriminated against non-black voters.

A panel of three federal district judges then sided with the non-black voters, determining in April 2024 that the map could not be used in upcoming elections. The Supreme Court intervened and stayed that order, allowing the map to be used.

Harris told the justices in a Jan. 24 letter that the Biden-era DOJ filed a friend-of-the-court brief on Dec. 23, 2024, arguing that there was “a strong basis in evidence” for the single federal district judge to believe a new map had to be drawn to bring the state into compliance with the federal Voting Rights Act. On Jan. 16, while Biden was still president, the DOJ also asked to participate in the oral argument of the case.

But with “the change in Administration, the Department of Justice has reconsidered the government’s position in these cases,” and the Biden-era brief “no longer represents the position of the United States.”

The DOJ is also “withdrawing its pending motion to participate in the oral argument,” Harris wrote.

Oral argument in the case has not yet been scheduled.

It is unclear when the Supreme Court will respond to the change in position in the redistricting case and to the abeyance motions.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 16:20

Goldman Finds "More Nuclear & Fewer EVs" As Trump Supercharges Powering Up America Theme

Goldman Finds "More Nuclear & Fewer EVs" As Trump Supercharges Powering Up America Theme

There is a lot to unpack in Goldman's note, "US Policy Implications: Reliability, AI/Data Center Power Surge, More Nuclear/Fewer EVs," which discusses President Trump's "energy emergency" executive orders alongside the private sector announcement of the Stargate AI infrastructure project

Goldman analysts Brian Singer, Brendan Corbett, and others noted that despite President Trump's executive order freezing all Inflation Reduction Act funding disbursements, they remain "bullish on multiple sustainable themes" because of corporate/consumer/policymaker/regulator priority:

  • Reliability of energy, power and water supply.

  • Efficiency innovation towards energy, land and resource use. AI/Data Center power demand growth and willingness by Big Tech/hyperscalers to pay Green Reliability Premiums in support of nuclear generation and multiple other Clean Reliable virtual/on-site power sourcing.

  • Increased embrace by Sustainable Investors of the need for AI and Automation to fill rising labor challenges accelerated by aging populations in developed economies with tailwinds for Reskilling/Education/Womenomics stocks.

The team of analysts noted a convergence of multiple drivers impacting Sustainable Investing themes and the broader US economy in 2025 that only provides tailwinds for other themes, including "Reliability, Efficiency, AI/Automation, Training/Reskilling, Womenomics, and Affordability/Access. " 

They see tailwinds for Green Capex to support growth and infrastructure modernization... 

The analysts next provided a breakdown of President Trump's executive orders related to energy and AI announced last week:

In the first days of the new US Administration, President Trump issued executive orders declaring a National Energy Emergency, reviewing wind energy permitting and promoting affordable/reliable energy and domestic natural resources.

What was broadly consistent with our prior reports. Much of the policy and priorities were in-line with discussions in Washington in October, our post-election outlook and our 2025 outlook, in particular regarding:

  • Prioritizing acceleration of permitting processes for US energy/power/minerals development.

  • De-emphasis on EVs and offshore wind.

  • Suspension of further IRA loans/grants.

  • Broad support for nuclear.

  • Broad support for infrastructure/AI/data centers.

What was not consistent with our prior reports. Beyond the topics discussed in our prior reports, the executive orders issued in the opening days of the Administration:

  • Call for a suspension of federal permitting for onshore wind projects pending the completion of a comprehensive assessment and review of Federal wind leasing and permitting practices.

  • Pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act pending a 90-day review of processes, policies, and programs for issuing grants, loans, contracts, or any other financial disbursements of such appropriated funds for consistency with the law.

  • Supply and maintain a critical minerals National Defense Stockpile.

Four investment takeaways for key 2025 themes.

  • In aggregate, the policy initiatives broadly support our bullish outlook for investment towards Reliability of power, energy and water which we believe will be a priority of regulators, policymakers, corporates and consumers.

  • The increased focus on affordability we believe is bullish for the broad theme of Efficiency -- energy, resources and land.

  • Support for AI/data centers benefits companies in the supply chain of the AI/data center global power surge, in our view, including those providing low-carbon solutions.

  • At the same time there remain uncertainties, most importantly over the sustainability of IRA tax incentives and outlook for federal permitting of onshore wind. Not all onshore wind projects require federal permits, suggesting greater nuance regarding company-specific impact.

The analysts turned their focus on "AI/data centers' global power surge: Continue to see aggressive US/global growth, all-in approach to power sourcing." This coincides with our "The Next AI Trade" note in April 2024.  

Here's more from the analysts about the data center power surge that will boost demand on the grids through the end of the decade:

Our analysis suggests a 160%-165% increase in data center power demand by 2030 vs. 2023 levels. In the US, this implies that data centers will contribute a ~1% CAGR to overall US power demand; our Utilities team in its April 2024 report expects overall US power demand CAGR of 2.4% through 2030. We see data centers adding a 0.3% CAGR to overall global power demand. Our base case implies data center power demand moves from 1%-2% of overall global power demand to 3%-4% by 2030. In the US, the pace of mix increase is even greater, more than doubling by 2030 from 4% in 2023. If global data center growth in 2030 vs. 2023 levels were its own country, it would be a top 10 global power consumer.

However.

The analysts cautioned that, amid the surge in data center power demand, five potential constraints could pose significant risks to their updated base case of a 160% jump in global data center power demand growth in 2030 vs. 2023 levels: 

  1. Will AI server shipments be constrained by data center capacity? Our analysis led by our Telecom Infrastructure team suggests a tightening market for data center real estate in the coming years but sufficient capacity for our base case expectations for power demand.

  2. Will data center capacity be constrained by power infrastructure? Our analysis led by our Utilities team suggests a combination of new generation additions and greater utilization of existing capacity will be sufficient to meet data center power demand with transmission/interconnection the greatest risk. The investment split of the intended $500 bn Stargate project into AI servers vs. other infrastructure remains unclear. Broadly, we believe a $50 bn purchase of high-powered AI servers would lead to about 8-17 TWh of annual power demand, depending on power intensity of the servers purchased (new gen vs. older gen).

  3. Will power infrastructure be constrained by low-carbon optionality/cost? We believe Big Tech will continue to take an all-in approach to data center power sourcing, with continued willingness to pay Green Reliability Premiums while at the same time prioritizing time-to-market. We estimate the impact of major hyperscalers absorbing Green Reliability Premiums consistent with our recent AI/data center power surge report represents a modest 2%-3% of EBITDA and a minimal impact on >30% corporate returns. We note that Microsoft's CEO noted continued intentions to achieve 2030 decarbonization objectives in a CNBC interview on January 22, and Amazon's Chief Sustainability Officer was quoted in a press report as staying course on low-carbon goals.

  4. Will new-gen AI chips drive lower or higher aggregate power demand? We assume Big Tech cash flow/budgets will be the key constraint, leaving upside risk if there are no constraints and downside risk if compute speed demand is finite. We continue to see more risk to the upside (i.e., fewer capital constraints) while AI is in the training phase.

  5. Will AI server demand be constrained by AI results/innovations? This will remain key to watch, particularly from a Sustainability perspective whether we see accelerated efficiency solutions in the health care, energy, agriculture and education sectors.

The analysts then shifted their focus on "underinvestment in infrastructure" amid tailwinds by the Trump administration, plus ongoing power demand shift higher: 

We believe the confluence of rising power demand, historical underinvestment in infrastructure and rising temperatures/more extreme weather events will continue to drive rising tailwinds for investments in Reliability -- primarily of Power/Energy and Water. We continue to see opportunity for investment in stocks levered to the theme globally, which we believe will be a priority for both policymakers and corporate/residential consumers.

Infrastructure replacement and hardening both necessitate Reliability investment. Our meetings with corporates, regulators and policymakers in 2024 indicated increased recognition of the need for grid/water infrastructure hardening and modernization. This is due to both underinvestment in recent years as well as a wider range of expected temperatures between summer and winter. We believe both policymakers and regulators will look to reduce risk of outages and as such prioritize measures that would improve Reliability and Resiliency.

Adaptation will likely be a rising theme regardless of climate outcome, in our view. We believe the growing realization of potential risks/impacts/opportunities as global temperatures rise will serve to further investor and corporate focus on Adaptation. Since 1970, the world has seen an acceleration in temperature rise vs. the 1850-1900 average, per Berkeley Earth data. In the near to medium term we believe investors and corporates will take increased measures to quantify physical risks, increase investments towards Adaptation mitigation/solutions and look for new ways of gaining exposure to Adaptation solutions. Our meetings with regulators and corporates suggest recognition of the need to invest to mitigate Reliability risk from extreme weather events or more volatile summer/winter temperatures via investment in water/power solutions.

Generational growth will act as a further tailwind for infrastructure spending. We expect electricity demand growth in the US and Europe to accelerate to levels not seen in a generation, a function of electrification (Europe and US), AI/broader data center demand (US and Europe) and industrialization/reshoring (US). Also, with an eye on reducing risk of outages, we believe regulators will support investments to meet rising demand, with particular support for affordable technologies that advance meeting demand and reliability goals. We also see regionalization driving increased water infrastructure needs in select geographies.

Reliability a driver of recent US power M&A. On January 10, Constellation Energy (CEG, Coverage Suspended) announced plans to acquire privately held company Calpine, which would fuse Constellation's largely nuclear generation fleet with Calpine's largely natural gas generation fleet. The companies in their statement announcing the deal highlighted the increased need for Reliability amid rising demand growth, in particular from data centers.

Goldman's Utilities Research teams provided their outlook on US electricity consumption...

To conclude, the analysts said a more significant shift is underway within the Trump era: "Accelerated nuclear generation expansion combined with reductions in incentives for electric vehicles in the US may not derail overall Green Capex while potentially leading to net lower long-term carbon emissions." 

Let's not forget that in December 2020, one of our major themes was the nuclear trade.

Separately, on Saturday, we provided readers with Michael Hartnett's latest Flow Show, which shows the 10 biggest themes through the end of the decade

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 15:45

Stockman: America's Fiscal Doomsday Machine Must Be Stopped

Stockman: America's Fiscal Doomsday Machine Must Be Stopped

Authored by David Stockman via the Brownstone Institute,

The following is Chapter One of David Stockman’s latest book, “How to Cut $2 Trillion: A Blueprint From Ronald Reagan’s Budget Cutter to Musk, Ramaswamy and the DOGE Team.”

The DOGE $2 trillion budget savings goal is crucial to the very future of constitutional democracy and capitalist prosperity in America. In fact, the soaring public debt is now so out of control that the Federal budget threatens to become a self-fueling financial doomsday machine.

Recall this sequence.

When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 on a call to bring the nation’s inflationary budget under control, the public debt was $930 billion and about 30 percent of GDP.

By the time Donald Trump was elected the first time it had erupted to $20 trillion, which has now become $36 trillion and 125 percent of GDP. Moreover, by the end of this decade the Federal fiscal equation will be going supercritical without sweeping budget reductions at the level of the DOGE target. Thus, by FY 2034 the annual baseline deficit according to CBO will total $2.9 trillion and 7 percent of GDP.

Yet even these enormous figures are based on a Rosy Scenario fairy tale. Namely, that Congress will never again adopt another spending increase or tax cut, including the impending $5 trillion extension of the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts. It also conveniently assumes there will be no recessions, no inflation recurrence, no interest rate flare-ups nor any other economic crises for the remainder of this decade and forever thereafter.

Furthermore, it presumes that these surging red ink totals and soaring debt service expenses would be copacetic in the bond pits just the same. That is, CBO inexplicably projects that 7 percent of GDP deficits and annual interest expense of $1.7 trillion or 4.1 percent of GDP by 2034 would be compatible with a weighted average yield on nearly $60 trillion of public debt of just 3.4 percent.

Yes, and if dogs could whistle the world would be a chorus! Give the average yield just another 250 basis points, however, and now you have $3.1 trillion of annual debt service expense and a $4 trillion annual deficit by 2034. In short, there is a doom-loop building inside the Federal fiscal equation and nothing short of the DOGE target of $2 trillion of annual budget savings by the end of this decade can reverse its explosive materialization in the years beyond.

If sweeping budget retrenchment does not occur soon, in fact, soaring interest expense will ignite a veritable fiscal wildfire. On paper, the public debt would power upward unabated to $150 trillion or 166 percent of GDP by mid-century (2054) under CBO’s current Rosy Scenario projections. Of course, long before the debt actually hits this staggering figure, the whole system would implode. Every remnant of America as we now know it would go down the tubes.

So we need to be clear that the DOGE team of Musk and Ramaswamy must focus on savings of $2 trillion per year commencing relatively soon. That’s because the nation’s fiscal doomsday machine will be accumulating interest expense so fast as to make $2 trillion of savings spread over a longer period–such as a decade–little more than a rounding error. To wit, Federal interest expense has already passed the $1 trillion per year mark, will exceed $2 trillion per year in the early 2030s and would top $7.5 trillion per year at minimum by our calculations by mid-century.

Stated differently, if something drastic is not done now—like a $2 trillion annual budget savings by the end of Donald Trump’s second term—America will be paying more interest on the public debt within 25 years than the entirety of today’s Federal budget. That’s right: Debt service will exceed current outlays for Social Security, defense, Medicare, education, highways, the national parks, Head Start, interest, and the Washington Monument, too.

Obviously, the sprawling Federal government and its prodigious expanse of spending and debt literally defies easy comprehension and graspable solutions. After all, the current annual budget of $7 trillion amounts to Federal spending of nearly $20 billion per day and $830 million per hour. And when you talk about the 10-year budget outlook, comprehension literally fades away completely: The current CBO spending baseline for 2025-2034 amounts to $85 trillion or just shy of the annual GDP of the entirety of planet Earth this year.

So based on experience we suggest that the DOGE team needs to build its $2 trillion case around a target year and several big buckets of savings by broad type. The latter can then be used to fashion a detailed but comprehensible blueprint for arraying and conveying the desperately needed housecleaning of the Federal budget that the DOGE has been tasked with accomplishing.

In that context, FY 2029 makes the most sense as a target year since it would represent the 4th and outgoing Trump budget; and also one which would give sufficient time for phasing in some of the sweeping cuts that will be needed, but not so far in the distant future as to be largely irrelevant to the here and now of fiscal governance during Donald Trump’s second term.

We’d also suggest three big buckets of savings, which we would short-hand as follows:

  • Slash the Fat... by eliminating unnecessary and wasteful agencies and bureaucrats wholesale.

  • Downsize the Muscle... by curtailing national security capacities and functions that have grown up during the Forever Wars but are not needed for an America First foreign policy.

  • Cut the Bone... by reducing low-priority entitlements and subsidies that the nation cannot afford, and which a reasonable view of societal equity does not require.

Needless to say, when it comes to the vast wasteland of the Federal budget there are innumerable ways to skin the cat. But based on our own experience of more than a half-century of familiarity with the Federal budget as both a participant and an informed observer, we judge the following mix to be the most plausible and balanced way to get to the $2 trillion of annual savings by FY 2029.

To be sure, even this relatively judicious mix is sure to ignite firestorms on the banks of the Potomac like never before, but it can be strongly justified and defended for the reasons we will lay out in detail below.

Annual DOGE Savings Targets by Component:
  • Slash the Fat: $400 billion or 20 percent.

  • Downsize the Muscle: $500 billion or 25 percent.

  • Cut the Bone: $1.1 trillion or 55 percent.

Suffice it here to say that the first bucket alone would leave them screaming to high heaven in the swamplands of DC. But even that $400 billion savings could be accomplished only by eliminating 16 agencies entirely, slashing another nine departments by 50 percent, cutting the balance of the nondefense payroll by 34 percent, terminating $40 billion per year worth of wasteful farmer subsidies, cancelling entirely $60 billion per year of energy boondoggles including all EV credits, and eliminating $150 billion per year of all other forms of corporate welfare and subsidies embedded in the budget and tax code.

We will amplify the details of this $400 billion of inherent Federal budget fat and waste in the chapters below. But suffice it here to say that attacking the usual shock effect lists of outrageous studies, stupid foreign aid projects, or even payments to dead people, as is often used to illustrate wasteful spending, will get you barely a fractional decimal point of the savings target, as desirable as eliminating this nonsense might be in its own right.

For instance, a recent “outrageous spending” list showed $4 million was wasted on “Dr. Fauci’s Transgender Monkey Study” and $6 million on a “USAID Fund to Boost Egyptian Tourism,” among countless more absurdities. Still, eliminating these two items would contribute only 0.0005 percent to the $2 trillion savings target.

Even some of the larger ideas of this sort, such as timelier elimination of dead people from the Social Security rolls, would not get you very far, either. To be sure, 1.1 million Social Security recipients pass on to their rewards each year, while departing beneficiaries would be receiving an average benefit currently of $1,907 per month. So one extra month of dead people on the rolls costs the not inconsiderable sum of $2.1 billion.

At the present time, however, not much excess dwell time actually happens. The rolls are purged every month based on newly filed death certificates, and this encompasses the termination of payments to anyone who died during the course of the month, including the last day. So the average duration on the rolls of Social Security decedents is 15 days, which computes to $1.050 billion of payments.

Of course, if the Musk and Ramaswamy team could come up with some more super-duper software to monitor, report, calculate final month benefits and then terminate decedents in real time, it might reduce dwell time by two-thirds. In turn, this means that getting dead people off Social Security 10 days faster would generate a savings of $700 million per year or about 0.04 percent of the $2 trillion target. That is to say, there is undoubtedly room for efficiency improvements and elimination of outright waste and stupidity everywhere in the Federal budget, but it unfortunately adds up to rounding errors.

Stated differently, if it doesn’t “scream and bleed” politically it won’t likely make a dent in achieving the $2 trillion goal. There is just plain nothing antiseptic about slashing the Federal budget.

For instance, even a thundering 50 percent cut in the current nondefense Federal headcounts of 1.343 million would save just $100 billion annually by the target year of 2029. And that’s a comprehensive figure based on the current average cost per Federal employee of $100,000 in pay per year plus $44,000 in average benefits and fringes–-escalated for inflation to $160,000 per bureaucrat by FY 2029.

Accordingly, to reach $2 trillion of annual savings will require a deep dive into the three buckets listed above. In the next five chapters we will lay out the most plausible and judicious route to the $400 billion of “Slash the Fat” savings, followed by the details and an America First rationale for cutting $500 billion per year of unneeded muscle from the national security budget in Chapter 7. Chapter 8 will then delve into $1.1 trillion per year of cuts from the bone of entitlement and domestic welfare that would be needed to reach the $2 trillion DOGE savings target.

But one thing should be clear from the outset. Lists of outrageous anecdotal items provide color about the stupidity and waste that is rampant in the Federal government. But they have nothing whatsoever to do with the fact-based analysis and philosophical U-turns that will actually be required to complete the DOGE mission successfully.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 15:10

Trump And Newsom Prepare To Battle Over Wildfire Relief

Trump And Newsom Prepare To Battle Over Wildfire Relief

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump is set to conclude the first regular work week of his second term by coming here to survey the devastation of the Southern California’s wildfires.

That’s the kind of things presidents do. But nothing about the last five days, from Trump’s swearing-in to the break-neck speed in which he moved to transform the nation’s political landscape, could honestly be described as regular. Now his willingness to trudge directly into the heart of the resistance to see the torched remains of Palisades and Malibu for himself seems a fitting coda to one of the boldest launches of a president’s second term in history.

And in a week consumed by political theater, Trump managed to generate even more drama by leaving California Gov. Gavin Newsom guessing as to whether the two will share the spotlight during his visit, considering their most recent war of words over water and wildfires – not to mention their increasingly spirited rivalry.

Last Sunday, when Trump announced plans to come here and “to see it and get it moving back,” it seemed like the two leaders might put aside their petty grievances and pot shots to focus on a joint federal-state rebuilding plan to deal with an ordeal that has claimed 28 lives and some 16,000 buildings – and is not yet over.

Instead, it’s uncertain whether Trump will greet the governor when he touches down in Los Angeles or ignore him altogether. And while new fires continue to ignite across California’s Southland, the region is now only one of several stops Trump plans to make Friday, between visits to hurricane-ravaged North Carolina and a touchdown in Nevada to thank voters for his victory there.

Newsom, who is widely considered a top contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, has complained publicly over the insinuation by Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson that relief for California would come with undefined strings attached.

But the governor has offered an olive branch of sorts, pledging to approach their new relationship with an “open hand, not a closed fist” while continuing to hold a special state legislative session to Trump-proof California. Attorney General Rob Bonta, meanwhile, one day after Trump’s inauguration, joined New Jersey and Massachusetts in suing the Trump administration over its executive order ending birthright citizenship for children born in the U.S. to illegal immigrants.

Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity Wednesday night that he “[hasn’t] even thought about” whether he’ll meet Newsom during the California visit. The next afternoon, Newsom told reporters he still didn’t know Trump’s plans for the trip. Pressed on whether the two men would meet Friday, Newsom said, “Well. I certainly plan on being there at the tarmac.”

Newsom is trying to shift the spotlight away from the myriad state and local failures and onto efforts he’s made over the last two weeks to protect Californians who’ve lost their homes from price-gouging rents, while also vowing to expedite the rebuilding process by removing the normal bureaucratic and costly environmental hurdles the state normally imposes. But Trump has issued blistering criticism of California’s government’s mismanagement and decades of water and environmental policies that have failed to help mitigate the impact of these deadly and destructive infernos when they hit.

Trump is seizing on the wildfires to gain an advantage in a first-term fight he lost with Newsom, an effort to send more water from Northern California to Central Valley farmers and to southern parts of the state. Trump has repeatedly ridiculed Newsom and California Democrats for trying to protect the endangered Delta smelt in their history of restricting the release of water across the state. In one of his first actions, Trump released an initiative to prioritize  “people over fish,” an effort he described as “stopping radical environmentalism to provide water to Southern California.”

The president also has expressed urgency in helping bring Los Angeles back “with some of the best builders in the world,” ahead of the 2028 Olympic Games the city is hosting. He declared during his Hannity interview that he didn’t think the federal government should “give California anything until they let the water run [southward].” Trump also has suggested that Republicans in Congress could withhold the wildfire aid unless Democrats agree to a debt-limit increase.

Californian lawmakers, including Republicans, are stuck in middle, trying to bridge the divide to help their constituents rebuild.

Republican state Sen. Suzette Martinez Valladares, who represents the Santa Clarita area north of Los Angeles where the Hughes Fire broke out Wednesday, stood alongside Newsom at a press conference Thursday in which the governor touted the $2.5 billion in wildfire disaster aid appropriated by the state legislature.

Valladares said her constituents were lucky because so many fire-fighting resources have been deployed to the state that firefighters were able to contain the fire in the first 24 hours.

When we respond to disasters, I do believe it’s always appropriate to put partisanship and politics aside,” she told RealClearPolitics Thursday night. “It’s really important to send a clear message to the Trump administration that disaster relief is not partisan.”

Valladares and several of her Republican colleagues are pushing back against the threats to place conditions on federal disaster relief for Californians.

I don’t think it’s appropriate to do that, and a lot of Republican colleagues in the state legislature feel the same way,” she said.

At the same time, Valladares and her Republican peers are hitting Newsom and the Democratic supermajorities in the state legislature for rejecting or slow-walking a host of fire-prevention measures over the last two decades, including hurdles to prescribed burns and forest thinning.

California Senate Republicans Thursday released a 15-page document outlining their legislative record of “working to protect Californians, Homes, and Communities” from the increasing threat of wildfires, which have killed more than 150 Californians over the last decade and completely wiping out entire communities.

Two measures Valladares sponsored made that list, including extending a suspension of requirements imposed by the California Environmental Quality Act for a three-year period in order to facilitate prescribed burns, vegetation thinning, and fuel reduction projects on federal lands. The effort died on the Senate floor in 2021.

In 2021, Newsom vetoed another Valladares measure that passed with bipartisan support that would have required the state insurance commissioner to convene a working group of stakeholders to review the feasibility of allowing insurers to offer more affordable plans to help curb skyrocketing insurance costs and the epidemic of insurance companies dropping policies across the state.

Though the state legislature passed $2.5 billion in wildfire relief Thursday, Democrats in Sacramento voted to block $1 billion for wildfire prevention Republicans proposed.

“Their failure to invest in prevention directly lead[s] to the disastrous wildfires,” Californian Assemblyman Bill Essayli said in a Thursday post on X.com. “They would rather spend our tax dollars to fund healthcare for illegal immigrants.”

When it comes to fire prevention, Democrats’ efforts are focused more sweepingly – on combating global warming, which they hold responsible for the increase in wildfires. Valladares agrees that climate change has contributed to the increasingly destructive wildfires, but says that Democrats shouldn’t block prevention efforts that state elected officials can control.

Newsom is known for his half-truths, which to me is not helpful,” she said. “L.A. has become a breakpoint [showing] where all of our issues in California have come from, and that’s a lack of accountability and mismanagement of fire mitigation to our insurance crisis to our housing crisis. It’s now time for California, its legislature, to do the right thing and not listen to the lobbyists of the environmentalists.”

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 14:00

This Is The Income Needed To Raise A Family In Each US State

This Is The Income Needed To Raise A Family In Each US State

Over 13 million families in the U.S. have two children living at home.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, illustrates the income needed to raise a family of four in each state. GOBankingRates compiled the data as of December 2024.

Methodology: GOBankingRates analyzed 2023 Consumer Expenditure Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate annual living expenses for a family of four across all 50 states. Costs included housing, groceries, utilities, healthcare, and transportation.

Hawaii and Massachusetts at the Top

A six-figure household income is required to raise a family of four in 26 states.

High taxes, strict land-use rules, and shipping costs make Hawaii the priciest state for families. The state is followed by Massachusetts and California at the top of the list.

Rank State Salary Needed 1 Hawaii $259K 2 Massachusetts $200K 3 California $188K 4 New York $156K 5 Alaska $137K 6 Maine $136K 7 New Jersey $135K 8 Vermont $132K 9 Oregon $132K 10 Arizona $131K 11 Washington $131K 12 Utah $128K 13 Connecticut $127K 14 New Hampshire $124K 15 Rhode Island $123K 16 Nevada $113K 17 Colorado $113K 18 Florida $112K 19 Virginia $111K 20 Idaho $107K 21 Wisconsin $107K 22 Delaware $107K 23 North Carolina $105K 24 Wyoming $101K 25 Illinois $100K 26 South Dakota $100K 27 Ohio $99K 28 Maryland $99K 29 Pennsylvania $98K 30 South Carolina $98K 31 Montana $97K 32 Minnesota $97K 33 New Mexico $96K 34 Texas $96K 35 Louisiana $95K 36 North Dakota $95K 37 Georgia $95K 38 Nebraska $94K 39 Michigan $94K 40 Indiana $94K 41 Kentucky $93K 42 Tennessee $92K 43 Missouri $92K 44 Iowa $92K 45 Oklahoma $91K 46 Arkansas $88K 47 Kansas $88K 48 Alabama $88K 49 Mississippi $88K 50 West Virginia $82K

At the bottom, West Virginia, Alabama, and Mississippi are the cheapest states to raise a family. In comparison, a family in Hawaii ($259,000) needs to earn more than three times what a family in West Virginia ($82,000) needs to raise a family of four.

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out this graphic, which shows what the average American household’s monthly budget looks like, including savings, taxes, and all other expenditure.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 13:25

Trump Calls For Jordan, Egypt To Take More Palestinian Refugees, "Clean Out" Gaza

Trump Calls For Jordan, Egypt To Take More Palestinian Refugees, "Clean Out" Gaza

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Jan. 25 that he wants Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab nations to accept more Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip, with the goal of moving out enough of the war-torn area’s population to “just clean [it] out” and create a virtual clean slate of the Palestinian territory.

Trump made the comments during a 20-minute question-and-answer conference with reporters on Air Force One Saturday. He said he lifted former President Joe Biden’s hold on sending 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, which was intended to lower civilian casualties in the Israel–Hamas War, now paused during a fragile cease-fire deal.

Trump said he released the bombs that day, “They’ve been waiting for them for a long time.”

When asked why he lifted the ban, Trump said, “Because they bought” the bombs.

The president has backed Israel for much of his political career. Regarding his goals for Gaza, Trump described a call earlier in the day with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and said he would speak with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on Sunday.

“I’d like Egypt to take people,” Trump said.

“You’re talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing and say, ‘You know, it’s over.’”

During his call with Abdullah, Trump said he complimented Jordan for taking in Palestinian refugees and told the king, “I'd love for you to take on more, cause I’m looking at the whole Gaza Strip right now, and it’s a mess. It’s a real mess.”

The resettling or displacement of Gaza refugees would likely spur pushback from Palestinians, who hold a connection to the region. Trump said the area has experienced “many, many conflicts” for centuries and that resettling could be “temporary or long term.”

“Something has to happen,” the president said. “But it’s literally a demolition site right now. Almost everything’s demolished, and people are dying there.”

“So, I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations, and build housing in a different location, where they can maybe live in peace for a change,” he added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office did not issue an immediate response to Trump’s remarks.

After his inauguration on Jan. 20, Trump said Gaza has “really got to be rebuilt in a different way.”

”Gaza is interesting. It’s a phenomenal location, on the sea. The best weather, you know, everything is good. It’s like, some beautiful things could be done with it,” he added.

The response from the Hamas terrorist group and its aligned groups was swift, with the terrorist organization Palestinian Islamic Jihad calling Trump’s idea “deplorable.” The group told AFP that the plan encourages “war crimes and crimes against humanity by forcing our people to leave their land.”

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, has fought alongside Hamas and other allied Palestinian groups throughout the Israel-Hamas war. It is the second-largest militant group in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The U.S. State Department designated it as a terrorist group in 1997.

Bassem Naim of Hamas’s political bureau told AFP that Palestinians would foil those plans, just as they have with other ideas “for displacement and alternative homelands over the decades.”

He added that Gazans would not “accept any offers or solutions, even if their apparent intentions are good under the banner of reconstruction, as proposed by U.S. President Trump.”

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, an opponent of the Gaza truce deal, called Trump’s idea of seeking relocation for Gazans a “great idea.”

“Only out-of-the-box thinking with new solutions will bring a solution of peace and security,” he said.

Trump’s resumption of large bomb deliveries is a break from Biden, who stalled their delivery in May to limit an all-out assault on Rafah, the southern Gaza city. Israel took control of the city a month later after a majority of Rafah’s one million residents that had lived or taken shelter in the city had been removed.

At the time, Biden had also paused 1,700 500-pound bombs that were packaged in the same shipment, but delivered those weeks later.

Trump’s latest move comes amid his celebrations of the first phase of the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Fighting is paused, and Hamas released some of the hostages it took in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons.

However, negotiations in the cease-fire’s second phase have not yet begun, which would result in all Hamas-held hostages being released.

The Israeli government has threatened to resume its war with Hamas—which began after the terrorist group massacred Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, 2023—if the remaining hostages are not released.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 12:50

Democrats Threaten "Righteous Litigation" Over Trump's Shutdown Of DEI Offices

Democrats Threaten "Righteous Litigation" Over Trump's Shutdown Of DEI Offices

If a president has the power to unilaterally approve and fund DEI programs within the federal government, then any future president also has the power to unilaterally shut those DEI programs down.  This is how executive orders work, but Democrats think when it comes to Donald Trump legal restrictions apply. 

Woke activist politicians are up in arms this week after Trump signed orders effectively shutting down all DEI related offices within the government and placing employees on paid leave pending inevitable pink slips.  The usual suspects including House Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar held a press conference to voice their outrage over the fast-paced elimination of DEI. 

Jeffries arguments in particular were loaded with fallacies in an attempt to rewrite what Diversity, Equity and Inclusion initiatives actually are.  According to the House Minority Leader, America has always embraced DEI.

First we have to clarify that DEI is not and never will be American.  It is a communistic policy which places the group over the individual.  Meaning, the merit of the individual is dismissed as irrelevant in favor of diversity hiring for the sake of appearances.  Inevitably, this leads to the discrimination of certain people (namely straight white men and conservatives), because DEI operates on a victimhood totem pole which places certain groups above others depending on their ethnic or sexual status.  

There aren't enough high level black, indigenous or trans aerospace engineers in the US to fill positions at agencies like NASA.  So, DEI officials hire unqualified or lesser qualified workers by default.

Furthermore, "equity" and "equality" are not the same thing, and Hakeem Jeffries knows this. 

Equality is about equal treatment and equal opportunity.  Under equality, merit still applies. 

Equity is about forcing equality of outcome and giving special treatment to people based on their perceived or fabricated social disadvantages.  Under equity there can be no such thing as merit because the most useless people will always rise to the top based on who can pretend to be the most "oppressed".     

America has never embraced equity; it is a poisonous ideology that destroys excellence and progress.  America will always strive for equality based on merit.  If you have the chops to do the job at a top level, your skin color or bedroom activities don't matter.  If you're lazy, entitled and incompetent, then no amount of victim group status earns you a job.

Ilhan Omar attempted to reinforce the equity claim in her arguments, asserting that the public is "misinformed" about what DEI is and what DEI hiring entails.

Omar seems to assert that DEI is not about hiring people based simply on their diversity.  This is a lie. Regardless of how Democrats gaslight, in practice DEI has always been about hiring people based on their supposed oppression status.  It's about filling out that perfect inclusion pie chart that leftists venerate so much, and this is done at the expense of skill and experience.  It is also designed to slowly but surely weed out conservatives from government and exclude them from participation. 

Given a choice between a conservative and a woke activist, who is a DEI bureaucrat going to hire first?     

Hakeem Jeffries goes on to threaten an 'avalanche of righteous litigation' by Democrats in response to Trump's DEI shutdowns, claiming that the action is outside of the President's power and is unconstitutional.  It's unlikely that such litigation will go far or accomplish much other than to serve as a distraction.  DEI offices are federal creations which means they are subject to presidential executive orders.  There's nothing Dems can do about it.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 12:15

Trump Administration Puts Immediate Pause On FDA, CDC, & HHS Reports And Posts

Trump Administration Puts Immediate Pause On FDA, CDC, & HHS Reports And Posts

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Trump administration has placed a freeze on many federal health agency communications with the public until at least the end of the month.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters in Atlanta on April 23, 2020. (Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images

In a Jan. 21 memo, Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Acting Secretary Dorothy Fink told agency staff officials that an “immediate pause” had been ordered on announcements, press releases, social media posts, regulations, and guidance until those communications were approved by an appointee.

Agencies that are affected include HHS-supervised agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and many others. The pause is in effect through Feb. 1, according to the memo.

The pause announced by Fink includes anything that may be published in the Federal Register, as well as in the CDC’s publication, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, which offers studies and alerts on a range of health-related subject matter. Nothing has been published in the CDC publication since Jan. 16, or four days before President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Fink said in the memo that some exceptions would be made for communications that affect “critical health, safety, environmental, financial or nation security functions.” However, such statements would have to be reviewed beforehand, she said.

On Jan. 21, the FDA posted notices about warning letters sent to companies. The CDC posted several statements, announcements, and research papers on its website on Jan. 21 and Jan. 22.

Fink, an endocrinologist and career civil servant who had led the HHS Office on Women’s Health, was selected by Trump as his interim HHS secretary on the afternoon of Jan. 20, according to a notice published by the White House. She will remain in that position until Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the president’s choice to lead the agency, is confirmed by the Senate.

Hearings for Kennedy, formerly an independent presidential candidate before dropping out and endorsing Trump last year, will start in the Senate as soon as the paperwork is sent to the upper chamber, a senator from Louisiana confirmed to local media outlets.

I’m told the paperwork might come today, at which point we can schedule the hearings,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) told the Shreveport Times on Jan. 21.

Long a critic of certain vaccines, Kennedy has endorsed a Trump-related slogan, “Make America Healthy Again,” while Trump said at a pre-election rally in New York City that he would have Kennedy “go wild” on U.S. health agencies. During a conference last year, Kennedy said he wanted to fire 600 people working at the NIH, which oversees vaccine research, and replace them with 600 new hires.

We need to act fast, and we want to have those people in place on Jan. 20, so that on Jan. 21, 600 people are going to walk into offices at NIH and 600 people are going to leave,” Kennedy said.

To lead the CDC, Trump has chosen former Florida Republican Rep. Dave Weldon, a medical doctor. Trump also selected Johns Hopkins surgeon Marty Makary to lead the FDA.

The Epoch Times contacted the FDA, CDC, and HHS for additional comment on Jan. 22.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/26/2025 - 09:55

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