Exposing Beijing's 'Gray Trade' Tariff Avoidance Scheme

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

Is a new boom in deceptive trading practices taking shape in many parts of the world? As the U.S.–China trade war intensifies, it certainly looks that way.

China’s Gray Trade Strategy Blunts Impact of US Tariffs

With U.S. tariffs reaching 145 percent on Chinese imports—at least at the time of this writing—Beijing’s new strategy seems to include the use of so-called gray trade to bypass American trade barriers. Gray trade involves rerouting goods through low-tariff countries, such as Vietnam, Mexico, or Malaysia, to conceal their Chinese origin and thereby reduce U.S. import duties.

This sneaky tactic has surged as a response to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, making China’s goods less competitive in the U.S. market due to their added cost.

Gray Trade Loophole Strategy

The simple idea behind gray trade is to exploit loopholes in U.S. Rules of Origin, the trading guidance for determining a product’s country of origin for tariff purposes. Chinese goods, for example, will remain unassembled or may be about 90 percent manufactured before being shipped to an intermediary country. There, they undergo final production, assembly, processing, repackaging, or relabeling to qualify as originating from that country, rather than from China.

For example, Chinese electronic parts may be sent to Vietnam, assembled into a product, and then labeled, “Made in Vietnam.” This enables China to benefit from the 10 percent tariff on Vietnamese imports under Trump’s 2025 reciprocal tariff regime, instead of the 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods.

It’s a perfectly sensible response by Beijing, and there’s no doubt that Chinese firms are rerouting goods through Vietnam, Mexico, and Turkey to exploit lower tariffs on goods sourced from those countries. A related tactic occurring in Mexico involves dividing goods into packages that are below the $800 tariff-free threshold for non-Chinese origins, a tactic called the “Tijuana two-step.”

China Has to Resort to Gray Trade

But gray trade isn’t new or even unfamiliar to the second Trump administration. During Trump’s first term, Chinese solar manufacturers bypassed 30 percent tariffs by partnering with their neighbors in Southeast Asia. In 2025, tracing the movement and provenance of vast numbers of products is complex at best and nearly impossible at worst, making it a challenge to disrupt gray trade.

It’s no mystery why Beijing is engaging in gray trade. With its exports to the United States accounting for 10 percent of its trade and supporting between 10 million and 20 million jobs, some experts say the world’s largest manufacturer faces an estimated 80 percent decline in its exports over the next two years, if the gray trade were to cease.

As domestic economic conditions decline due to the anticipated extensive trade tensions, China’s 2025 GDP projections have fallen from 5 percent to as low as 4 percent, potentially resulting in a 20 percent drop in GDP growth in just one year. With joblessness among its young people (ages 16 to 24) already approaching 17 percent, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces a growing resentment among its people. The Party would like to avoid an uprising by its younger generation.

The gray trade has provided a much-needed cushion against the blow of the Trump administration’s high tariffs. For instance, according to official data, China’s exports surged by 12.4 percent in March, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 11.6 percent and exports to Vietnam climbing by nearly 19 percent.

Impact on Low-Tariff Countries

But it’s not just China that gains from gray trade. Its low-tariff country partners also gain economically from gray trade but face risks, too. Gray trading partners, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico, profit from trade and processing fees, with some estimates on the social media platform X reaching as high as 10 percent. It’s worth noting that between 2017 and 2022, Vietnam replaced almost half of China’s lost market share in U.S. imports.

However, gray trading partner countries risk the consequences of U.S. pushback, resulting in a delicate balancing act for these countries caught between gray trade with China and managing important trading relationships with the United States.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

Economically, gray trade preserves China’s U.S. market access for the moment, but it raises costs as intermediaries take their cut, with logistics costs also increasing. For U.S. consumers, it may delay steep price hikes, but won’t eliminate them.

Geopolitically, Beijing’s retaliatory 125 percent tariffs on U.S. goods, plus adding barriers to U.S. beef and LNG imports, raise tensions even higher. CCP leader Xi Jinping’s recent visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia could have secured their gray trade hubs going forward.

A Rough Road Ahead?

But the impact of gray trade is perhaps deeper and wider than many may expect. On the one hand, it’s a reasonable response on China’s part to U.S. tariffs. But on the other hand, there are greater risks. The United States could expand tariffs or use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to close loopholes.

That, too, may be a rational response by the United States, or it could make things worse.

“The global trade system for the past ninety years is collapsing, leaving it difficult for people to forecast the economic impact and tell where the bottom for a market is,” Vincent Chan, a China strategist at Aletheia Capital Ltd., told Bloomberg.

As new phases of U.S. trade policy and responses unfold, the biggest risk may be uncontrolled escalation in both tariff retaliation and other forms of retaliation. In short, the impact of the gray trade may be deeper and wider than many expect, and it could even lead to a global trade war, with its own far-reaching implications.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 23:55

Dhillon Promises Action To Enforce Trump's Executive Orders On Civil Rights

Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Harmeet Dhillon’s decision to step down as the CEO of the Center of American Liberty to accept her new role as an assistant attorney general is one of mixed emotions, but it’s the right move, she says.

Harmeet Dhillon attends the 2023 CAGOP convention in Anaheim, Calif., on Sept. 30, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump chose Dhillon, who is known for championing parental rights, to lead the civil rights division of the Department of Justice (DOJ) under the direction of Attorney General Pam Bondi. She was confirmed on April 3.

“Our priorities are the president’s priorities,” Dhillon told The Epoch Times. “You’re not going to see any sunlight between us and the White House on their policy prerogatives.”

Trump’s executive orders that aim to protect women’s and girls’ rights in sports and target gender ideology, anti-Semitism, and “unconstitutional and discriminatory behavior at America’s top institutions of higher learning” indicate a few focal points for the civil rights division, she said.

“Those are our top civil rights priorities, and I don’t think anyone will be surprised to learn that,” she said. “I’m pretty sure I was selected for this role because of the background in civil rights on a number of aligned issues that we have done at the Center for American Liberty ... as well as my private practice and the Dhillon Law Group.”

The DOJ’s civil rights division is the nation’s primary defender of religious liberties, which are protected by the First Amendment and many federal statutes, “so you can expect that to be a priority of this administration,” she said.

With more than 400 attorneys, 600 employees in the DOJ’s civil rights division, and a heavy backlog of work, Dhillon said she’s getting up to speed on the division’s activities and beginning new investigations and initiatives.

“Every few minutes, something different crosses my desk,” she said, on her seventh day on the job.

While people on social media are asking her to investigate a wide range of issues, Dhillon said it will take time.

“I can’t put the cart before the horse. We have to do our investigations in due order,” she said. “As lawyers, we need to get our facts straight and go through a particular process before we file lawsuits, but I can assure you that the civil rights division under Bondi’s leadership, and under President Trump’s leadership is going to be extremely active on the issues that Americans care about.”

And those issues, she said, are the ones the president has spoken about on the campaign trail and in the Oval Office.

“Once we get started with some of these lawsuits becoming public and investigations—having some teeth into them—I think people are going to see those results to a much greater degree than ever in a Republican administration,” she said.

Dhillon recently launched a new account on social media platform X, where people can follow her official government posts.

Attorney General Pam Bondi speaks during a press briefing at the Department of Justice in Washington on Feb. 12, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times ‘Bittersweet’ Sentiments

When she accepted the nomination, she knew it would mean stepping down as CEO of the Center for American Liberty, which she founded in 2018.

“It’s bittersweet,” she said. “I’m sad about moving on because it was a dream of mine,” she said.

But she is confident in her colleague Mark Trammell’s ability to take the reins. Trammell is the former executive director.

Dhillon said she started the organization because she saw conservative organizations “doing little slices of civil rights work in very narrow areas, but nobody comprehensively taking on the rights of American citizens who are suffering from novel forms of discrimination or traditional forms of discrimination.”

The center has defended the rights of free speech for students on campus and filed more lawsuits during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, mainly on the grounds of religious freedom, than any other organization, and is well-known for representing young people who had undergone medical and hormonal treatments as teens in attempts to change their gender, which they are now trying to reverse; they’re known as detransitioners.

“We have led the nation in standing up for the rights of young women to hold their physicians and medical institutions accountable for misleading them about the gender transition industry and the harm that it does to so many thousands of American young women and men as well,” Dhillon said.

A New Role

When asked if she would investigate complaints from parents of gender dysphoric children who say they’ve faced the threat of having a child taken from their custody for refusing to call the child by opposite sex or preferred pronouns, Dhillon said, “Center for American Liberty took on several cases like that and that should be a clue.”

“I find it to be a very troubling trend,” she said. “It is absolutely a violation of Supreme Court jurisprudence, as well as natural law and civil rights law, for any state to usurp parental rights the way that we have seen.”

Pins with gender pronouns in Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Coercing parents to use preferred pronouns as a condition of enjoying their natural rights as parents is a violation of the First Amendment, due process, and equal protection, she said.

Dhillon said she is also concerned about states that prohibit foster parents from helping orphaned children or troubled youth because they refuse to align with certain viewpoints on gender.

Read more here...

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Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 23:05

Manhattan Congestion Toll Remains In Effect Despite Trump Admin Deadline For Removal

A Trump administration deadline to remove a toll charged to drivers in Manhattan, New York City, by April 20 has not been met by local authorities.

On Jan. 5, the city implemented a congestion pricing policy under which drivers of cars, small vans, pickup trucks, and SUVs are charged a $9 toll for entering Manhattan below 60th Street between 5 a.m. and 9 p.m. on weekdays and between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. on weekends.

The rates change during other times based on peak traffic. Trucks, taxis, buses, motorcycles, and Uber services are also subject to the toll.

In February, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) terminated approval for the congestion pricing policy. New York state’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), the state agency overseeing the tolls, then sued the federal government for canceling the program.

The DOT had initially given the MTA until March 31 to stop the collection of tolls under congestion pricing. This deadline was later extended by a period of 30 days, until April 20. By Sunday’s deadline, congestion pricing was still in effect in New York City.

But, as Naveen Athrappully reports below for The Epoch Times, both New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office and the MTA confirmed on Sunday that its system of traffic cameras continues to collect the fee assessed on most cars entering the borough below Central Park.

“The cameras are staying on,” Hochul’s spokesperson Avi Small said.

John J. McCarthy, the MTA’s chief of policy and external relations, said, “In case there were any doubts, MTA, State and City reaffirmed in a court filing that congestion pricing is here to stay and that the arguments Secretary Duffy made trying to stop it have zero merit.”

The DOT said it would not remove the deadline even as the court case plays out, saying it would “not hesitate to use every tool” at its disposal if the state failed to stop the toll.

The MTA argues that toll fees help raise money to upgrade the city’s aging transit systems.

Hochul previously said the money would underpin $15 billion in debt financing for mass transit capital improvements, with 80 percent of the money to be spent on the subway and bus system and 20 percent on two commuter rail systems.

The Trump administration opposed the toll over concerns it negatively affects small businesses and average American citizens.

In a March 20 statement on social media platform X, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the “unlawful pricing scheme charges working-class citizens to use roads their federal tax dollars already paid to build.”

Duffy said Hochul’s “refusal to end cordon pricing“ and her ”open disrespect towards the federal government is unacceptable.”

On Monday, Duffy sent a letter to Hochul regarding the state’s “illegal toll,” according to an April 21 statement from the DOT.

The New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) has been given 30 days to describe how its noncompliance is not illegal.

If the tolls are not stopped by then, or if the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), after evaluating NYSDOT’s response, determines that New York is out of compliance, the agency will take multiple actions, it said

This includes ceasing further “advance construction” projects within Manhattan and no more National Environmental Policy Act approvals for projects in the borough. The only exception would be if the projects are deemed to be essential for safety, the agency said.

If the noncompliance continues, more restrictive actions will be taken, including ceasing approvals for certain projects within New York City, it said

The corrective measures “may be expanded to other geographic areas within the State of New York if noncompliance continues,” DOT said.

Cars pass under E-ZPass readers and license plate-scanning cameras on the George Washington Bridge as congestion pricing takes effect in New York City on Jan. 5, 2024. Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

MTA Versus DOT

In its complaint against the federal government, MTA said that the FHWA, a division of the DOT, had executed the Value Pricing Pilot Program (VPPP) allowing the congestion toll collection in November 2024.

It criticized the Trump administration’s efforts to terminate the congestion pricing, calling them “unlawful.”

The defendants have provided “no basis” for reversing their position on the program despite having approved it only a few months back, the MTA argued. Defendants in the case include the DOT, FHWA, and Duffy.

“Neither the VPPP Agreement nor applicable law or regulations permit FHWA to unilaterally terminate the VPPP Agreement,” the lawsuit said.

“This makes good sense. If FHWA had the right to unilaterally terminate a VPPP program that had already been approved and implemented, it would create uncertainty around the future of such programs any time leadership at FHWA, USDOT, or the White House changed—uncertainty that may make it difficult to issue bonds for other projects and would clearly undermine the purposes of the VPPP.”

Terminating the VPPP agreement is an “open disregard of a host of federal statutes and regulations” while also violating MTA’s rights under the U.S. Constitution, the complaint said.

In a Feb. 19 letter to Hochul, Duffy said New York City’s need for congestion pricing “appears to be driven primarily by the need to raise revenue for the Metropolitan Transit Authority system as opposed to the need to reduce congestion.”

Toll rates set under VPPP “should not be driven primarily by revenue targets,” he said.

Signs advising drivers of congestion pricing tolls are displayed near the exit of the Lincoln Tunnel in New York City on Feb. 19, 2025. Seth Wenig/AP Photo

Duffy said he recognized that the Federal Highway Administration under the Biden administration had deemed the congestion pricing policy eligible for approval under the VPPP initiative.

The Federal Highway Administration “did not explain the basis for its conclusion,” he wrote.

Even though the NYSDOT and the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) have relied on the VPPP agreement to collect tolls, Duffy said such reliance “should not prevent the termination” of the agreement.

While NYSDOT and TBTA “have incurred costs related to the program, many of these costs were incurred” before the agreement was signed. The Federal Highway Administration “is not aware of any substantial costs associated with the physical stopping of the program,” the letter said.

The Epoch Times reached out to Hochul and the MTA for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 22:40

We Took The Buyout: Federal Employees On Why They Accepted The Offer To Quit

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Shortly after taking office, the Trump administration offered federal employees a deal many couldn’t refuse: resign voluntarily and receive full benefits and paid leave lasting until September.

Demonstrators rally outside the U.S. Office of Personnel Management in Washington on Feb. 5, 2025. Nathan Howard/Reuters

More than 75,000 workers eventually accepted the Deferred Resignation Program, or buyout, which came as part of the administration’s broader efforts to shrink the size of the federal bureaucracy. Since the beginning of President Donald Trump’s second term, the government has already laid off hundreds of thousands of federal employees and contractors.

As the federal government concludes a second round of buyout offers to nudge still more government workers out of the bureaucracy, The Epoch Times spoke with several employees who took the first buyout—and one who was not allowed to take it—about how the decision has affected their lives.

It wasn’t just Democrats who took the buyout, either: All who spoke to The Epoch Times about their decision were Trump supporters, and their accepting the offer was based on personal, rather than political, reasons. Most asked to remain anonymous over privacy concerns.

A former meteorologist told The Epoch Times that the buyout was too good to pass up. He was already eyeing retirement, and the government’s offer simply allowed him to jump-start those plans.

This was the most common reason for several others who took the deal as well.

Bill Page, a former curriculum manager for Army University, said he and most of his colleagues were in the same situation.

“Almost everybody in my section also took it. We were all older, or most of us were older, and were thinking about retiring anyway. And this opportunity came up.”

Page said his department was somewhat superfluous anyway. The employees who were too young to retire—or simply wanted to keep working—were allowed to move to other departments. Those who were already eligible for retirement had their buyout compensation extended to December, making the transition into retirement easier.

The Epoch Times asked Page about his next chapter.

“I’m 71, my next chapter is probably dying or something,” he joked. “But one of the reasons I didn’t retire until now was because I didn’t know what I would do with myself. I thought I wouldn’t have anything to do, and I was wrong. I’ve done all kinds of things ... and I’m enjoying myself.”

A former cybersecurity agent told the Epoch Times that the buyout was “a blessing.”

On Jan. 20, eight days before the buyout offer was announced, Trump asked federal agency heads to bring employees back into the office “as soon as practicable.” For years, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, many federal employees have been permitted work remotely, rarely or never coming into the office physically.

By this time, the cybersecurity agent said, he and his wife had moved to the midwest and had little desire to return to the east coast.

Fortunately, he was eligible to retire in September after a decade of service.

“So it worked out for me. Like I said, I don’t know if everybody has that experience, but for me, it worked out real well.”

Not everyone was as enthusiastic about their decision to take the offer.

One man, a 58-year-old in asset management, told The Epoch Times that he was essentially forced to accept the buyout due to the prohibition on remote work.

He said he had worked remotely for years when the call to return to the office came in. His agency had a building that was only about a 20 minute drive that he hoped would suffice.

However, he later learned that, due to his particular set of duties, he might be required to work out of the Washington office, on the opposite side of the country. He said he didn’t find such a move desirable or financially feasible. Thus, he felt forced to take the buyout and retire two years early.

“I wouldn’t get a reduced retirement once I turned 60,” he said.

But he said available information at the time “wasn’t full and complete.” His department pushed off any final decision on remote workers beyond the window to take the buyout.

Uncertain about whether he'd have to move, he took the offer just to be safe, he said. But he expressed concern that the reduced retirement benefit may cause a bit of financial strain in the future.

Not everyone was allowed to take the buyout, which was only available to those not considered “essential.”

One young woman, an acquisitions specialist, jumped at the chance to live her dream of being a full-time homemaker when she learned about the offer. She said the lagging economy had forced her to work for over a decade, since she and her husband needed the extra income to support their two small children.

Her husband expects to receive enough military disability benefits to support the family, but not until later this year. In the interim, she suggested the family is struggling.

“It’s just kind of hard right now, with just things being so expensive and just not having enough resources.”

She had hoped to use the buyout to allow her to leave work early and begin homeschooling her 5-year old. But the government rejected her request, labeling her an “essential” worker.

“It was kind of frustrating. They promised you, you know, you’re gonna get paid out till September, and then they made it seem like everybody would get approved.”

She had been told beforehand that rejections would be rare, but in her department the opposite turned out to be true. Less than 20 employees were approved, perhaps because the department’s work was deemed to be especially crucial. But she insisted there was still plenty of fat to trim there.

“I do see a lot of positions in our agency that they could do away with to save the government money. I feel like they have a lot of employees that do similar jobs that they could kind of cut, especially in our headquarters.”

Although everyone who spoke to The Epoch Times was in favor of the program—and the reduction in the size of government that prompted it—they also generally felt the Trump administration’s plans had all been conducted a bit hastily.

Some, like the meteorologist, noted that while there was substantial federal bloat to remove in some agencies, their own departments were already “woefully understaffed.”

One former employee said that his younger colleague was set to be promoted, but had to wait until workforce reductions were comp.leted. If he had taken the promotion when it was scheduled, it would have put him in “probationary status,” and there was a chance he might have been targeted for firing.

Joseph Lord contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 22:15

Air Cargo Faces $22BN Revenue Hit When China Tariff Exemption Ends

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

U.S. plans next month to cancel tariff-free access for low-value parcel shipments from China and Hong Kong, coupled with a new 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports, could bleed more than $22 billion in revenue from the air cargo sector over three years and put thousands of online sellers with direct-to-consumer fulfillment models out of business, according to an e-commerce and logistics consulting firm. 

Derek Lossing, the founder of Cirrus Global Advisors, has previously said the Trump administration’s recent trade actions against China would “decimate” air cargo out of China because demand for products on the Temu and Shein platforms would plummet. His Seattle-based consultancy has now quantified the downstream effects of the changes on the air cargo sector. 

The Cirrus Global Advisors model shows the airfreight industry revenue could contract $22 billion if the White House maintains tariffs at 125% for a substantial period of time, based on assumptions about lower consumer demand, excess airline capacity and downward pressure on yields. Large cargo airlines and freighter forwarders, like Atlas Air and Kuehne+Nagel subsidiary Apex Logistics, with heavy exposure to large Chinese marketplaces, as well as Amazon and smaller online brands, are expected to experience downward pressure on revenues, Losing said in a phone interview.

The estimate was made before the U.S. clarified that China tariff rate was actually 145%, to include a previous tariff, but it’s unclear if the higher rate would further drag down industry revenue.

E-commerce shipments account for an estimated 50% to 60% of China-U.S. air volumes and an estimated 20% of global air cargo volumes, according to logistics providers and the International Air Transport Association. Experts agree that dozens of widebody freighters are dedicated to hauling e-commerce shipments across the Pacific each day from China, but Lossing said he believes an estimate of 100 such aircraft by Netherlands-based consultant Rotate is high.

Total air cargo revenue on the China-U.S. trade lane will decrease more than 30% because of the lower volumes caused by the new U.S. trade policies and the lower yields that will follow, Lossing, a former Amazon logistics executive, predicted. 

When the Biden administration last fall proposed tighter rules for a subset of Chinese goods to qualify for de minimis, a program that allows the duty and tax-free entry of shipments with an aggregate value of $800 or less per person, per day, Cirrus Global Advisors estimated the impact to global air cargo revenue at $3 billion over three years. The estimate for revenue loss has steadily increased with Trump’s aggressive posturing against China before and after his inauguration, culminating with a complete ban of all Chinese goods from duty-free treatment, effective May 2. Starting next Friday, retailers will need to file formal customs entries, which require much more information and time than the fast-track de minimis process, to clear individual shipments

U.S. Customs and Border Protection says lax data requirements for de minimis shipments makes it difficult to screen for entry of illicit and unsafe goods. Trump canceled de minimis on the grounds that it enables smuggling of the opioid fentanyl and cheap imports that undercut U.S. retailers and manufacturers. 

Limiting de minimis when tariffs were relatively low was mostly considered an inconvenience for large Chinese marketplaces like Temu, Shein and Alibaba because their prices are so low consumers likely wouldn’t change their shopping habits if a piece of clothing increased in price by $2 or $3. But the imposition of 145% tariffs has blown up the model of fulfilling orders in China and shipping them by air directly to the customer’s residence, which was cheaper and faster than shipping in bulk by ocean to a U.S. warehouse for pick, pack and delivery. 

Temu, a hugely popular market for cheap goods, and fast-fashion brand Shein last week notified customers on their websites that they will raise prices starting April 25 in response to new trade rules and rising tariffs. The South China Morning Post reported that Temu has already sharply reduced online advertising in the U.S. Despite this, both sites have seen a spike in orders recently as shoppers try to get goods before the tariffs kick in. 

In addition to higher prices from tariffs, digital markets could lose sales as new customs clearance requirements create friction for customers during checkout, Lossing predicted Friday on LinkedIn.

“How comfortable will U.S. online consumers be to provide more, personal sensitive information to shop on a Chinese website, to facilitate a customs declaration for a B2C shipment,” he wrote. If e-commerce hassles and privacy concerns deter consumers from completing purchases the decline in cross-border parcel volumes and air cargo revenues could be even greater than currently forecast.

The Cirrus model, like others, assumes that the steep drop in China e-commerce shipments to the U.S. will significantly reduce demand for freighter aircraft. Airlines will respond by accelerating the retirement of older aircraft and relocating assets to other markets, resulting in excess capacity there and lower average freight rates. The degree to which express carriers and freighter operators reduce flight schedules or remove aircraft from China service will depend on how much consumers pullback from shopping. 

And If the European Commission follows through on intentions to remove the de minimis exemption for goods valued below $170 and impose a customs handling fee on individual B2C packages the harm to cross-border e-commerce players, including all-cargo airlines, could be severe, Losing told FreightWaves. 

“That’s kind of the one-two punch that actually would potentially push the revenue loss for air cargo over our current estimate,” he said. 

And the potential damage to the industry could spread if the Trump administration, as threatened, eliminates de minimis benefits across all nations once systems are in place to collect tariffs from millions of extra shipments per day. But the harm could also be less severe if the President follows a pattern of quickly undoing policy pronouncements and relaxes the tariffs or de minimis rules.

Small online sellers at high risk

The crackdown on Chinese e-commerce shipments poses an existential threat for many small-and-medium e-tailers with storefronts selling goods directly from China, as well as logistics providers that handle customs clearance and last-mile delivery for B2C shippers, said Lossing.

Large Chinese marketplaces were already preparing for more restrictive de minimis rules by building millions of square feet of U.S. warehouses the past couple of years to support a more traditional B2B2C fulfillment model, logistics executives said. Temu, for example, will consign goods to its U.S. entity, clear them via a formal customs entry, pay duty and truck them to a fulfillment center, where they will be stored, picked, packed and delivered.

Another reason for consolidating air or ocean shipments on one customs entry is to reduce the cost for customs brokerage and merchandise processing fees paid to the government per shipment. The cost for customs brokers to file entries will shoot up from 10 cents to $3 per package once the special de minimis pathway is eliminated. 

The National Foreign Trade Council calculates that without de minimis the average $50 package would require about $31 in paperwork, a brokerage fee of $20, plus tariffs and taxes, which would more than double the delivery cost.

In addition to significantly higher import costs, air shipments are expected to take longer for CBP to process under the standard entry process. 

Lossing said there are tens of thousands of small companies in China that sell on Amazon and other platforms that won’t be able to pay the 145% tariff and don’t have the resources to use a traditional containerized export model. And many customers will switch to countries like Vietnam, where tariffs are lower, for their online orders. 

He shot down arguments that the direct-to-consumer model for e-commerce from China is still viable because it allows merchants to defer tariffs until the actual time of sale versus paying them at a U.S. port of entry and it avoids the risk of having cash tied up in unsold inventory while paying for warehousing. 

On LinkedIn he challenged the assertion on Bloomberg Television by Izzy Rosenzweig, CEO of e-commerce logistics provider Portless, that the benefits of fulfilling individual orders from China to U.S. residents still made economic sense. Rosenzweig said Shein has plenty of margin to absorb higher import costs, while Temu’s goal is to fulfill 80% of its orders in the domestic U.S. 

“There are some pretty significant data points that show that the China D2C model will not survive at these tariff rates and de minimis closure. I guess only time will tell what happens….The only upside we see for the China-US e-commerce model is air freight rates are set to drop 30%-40% on the trade lane, bringing the cost per parcel down over $1 per unit,” Lossing posted.

Aaron Rubin, founder and CEO of ShipHero, a warehouse management software provider for e-commerce brands, said on LinkedIn that FedEx is charging an additional 45 cents per pound on airfreight from China because so many companies are running sales to liquidate their Chinese products for de minimis expires on May 2.

New tariffs, higher shipping rates and customer friction together “will force all companies to create and implement B2B2C clearance models because asking for sensitive customer information at checkout is a nail in the coffin” for direct-to-consumer fulfillment, Lossing said on LinkedIn. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 21:25

Protectionism Is Good

Authored by Josiah Lippincott via American Greatness,

Independence is freedom. Dependence is slavery. The more independence you have, the more choices you can make and the freer you are.

The more you need things from other people, the fewer choices you have, and the more you must obey the whims of others.

If you are poor, then you must work in order to live. You must trade your time and energy for sustenance, or you will die. Therefore, you must give up your freedom of choice to live.

Necessity constrains you.

Wealth, by contrast, gives you choices. You don’t have to take the first menial job you see just to put food on the table. Your money gives you power and flexibility. You can be your own boss.

Self-sufficiency—being independent—is critical to freedom and happiness. Relationships of desire replace those of necessity and convenience; friendship replaces subordination.

In this life, we can never wholly be free of necessity, but it is best to minimize our needs as much as possible. The frugal and prudent man sets up hedges around his wealth. He takes out “insurance” against the possibility of trouble and saves for a rainy day. He is moderate in his spending, avoids debt, and pays off his creditors quickly.

This common-sense wisdom is just as applicable at the national as at the individual level. A prudent nation does not sell off its future for cheap pleasures in the present; it works to liberate itself from dependence on foreigners and enemies; it prepares for hard times.

A prudent nation is, to the maximum extent possible, self-reliant and frugal.

The globalist liberal economic regime is none of these things. Indeed, the free traders insist that the wisdom of prudence and frugality is folly and even tyrannical, that autarky, or self-sufficiency, is ruin, and that dependence on foreigners is prosperity and power.

They are wrong.

Trade, of course, is a source of wealth. Specialization creates efficiency, and efficiency creates wealth. Instead of doing many things poorly, a worker can focus on doing one thing extremely well. He then trades the excess of his labor with others for what he needs and wants.

On a large enough scale, this trade between different specialists or workers creates far greater prosperity than if every man had to care for himself. In the state of nature, self-sufficiency is painful and hard to acquire. The individual by himself is vulnerable to injury, death, robbery, and famine.

A thousand dangers threaten him on every side. But when he allies with others, he is less weak. The more cords you wrap together, the stronger the rope becomes. Strength compounds strength.

But this strengthening has an upper limit. An alliance between men must be a true alliance. The members must care for one another and share their mutual commitment to the same high degree.

You cannot ally with people who hate you or who seek to defraud you. An alliance is a two-way street.

Globalists don’t understand this principle, however. 

In the aftermath of WWII, the Allied nations, giddy with victory and smug in their liberal values, believed that the whole world could live as one, that the population of the earth could enter into one giant alliance. It is from this idea that we get the “United Nations,” quite literally the nations of the earth were to be united into one global community rooted in shared democratic values. After the fall of the Soviet Union, it appeared that this liberal project had been realized.

Every nation on earth had entered into a new era free from tyranny and the petty jealousies of the old geopolitical order.

Liberals used this rationale to justify massive outsourcing in the American economy. 

Shipping jobs abroad lowered labor costs, brought cheaper prices, and raised the value of American companies. With fewer liabilities on their balance books, stocks rose to soaring heights. Returns blossomed. Investments boomed.

True enough, the United States had outsourced innumerable key industries abroad. Today, 99 percent of our medications, shoes, and fish are acquired from abroad, primarily from China. But for liberals, this was a small price to pay.

Free trade makes a nation wealthy. Global free trade should make it even wealthier. And where wealth goes, democracy is sure to follow. Democracy means peace. Peace means happiness. All would be well.

This promise was a lie. The nations of the earth do not share a fundamental interest. Democracy does not guarantee peace. Free trade does not make for endless prosperity. The delusions of a global order of freedom are hollow to the core. Indeed, they are evil.

COVID lockdowns made this clear. If liberalism and free trade lead to ever more freedom, how does one explain the global panic over a respiratory virus, a panic so intense it led to the American government unilaterally suspending the rights of free association, worship, and speech for years at a time?

It wasn’t just America, either. Western nations transformed themselves into open-air prison camps. After the initial wave of hysteria passed, relentless vaccine mandates came. The freedom of bodily autonomy was suspended on an almost global scale.

COVID threw back the curtain on the liberal world order and revealed its rotten, tyrannical, and insane heart, but it was not the only warning sign. Far from it.

The nations of the earth do not share a common interest. The explosion in BLM violence, anti-White DEI policies, and the relentless condemnations of American history for its bigotry and White supremacy make clear that no such reconciliation has yet occurred or is even possible.

The more migrants pour into America, the more our social cohesion frays, and the more our once-shared history is condemned and destroyed.

China and America, for instance, obviously pursue different interests. If they were the same, then we should simply unite and form one nation with a common citizenship. This would not work, of course. No one today would even dream of proposing such a thing.

The idea of uniting with Russia is even more absurd. Liberals foam at the mouth over Putin’s actions in Ukraine, viciously condemning the foreign policy of our one-time ally in WWII. The Russians, moreover, have no interest in being adversaries or even junior partners in the neoliberal world order. They want respect and a seat at the table, and they are willing to fight for them.

At home, America’s rural communities are in shambles. Once high-paying middle-class factory jobs have been wiped out. Empty factories dot the plain. Large swaths of America look like they lost a war: the buildings are falling apart, and the population is filled with foreigners.

The “interdependent” global economy has made Americans worse off in virtually every possible way. The only pathway to success today is through the “new economy.”

Every single one of my non-STEM college-educated millennial peers is working in law, finance, real estate, marketing, the non-profit sector, or for the government. They do not own businesses making real goods or employing real people. They are in industries that depend on government largesse, donations from the wealthy (derived primarily from equities), or working for the same stock-rich individuals.

Wealth increasingly concentrates in fewer and fewer hands. A few major cities—San Francisco, New York City, and Washington, DC—wield immense political and economic power. The scramble to get access to this wealth has given enormous influence to those in power.

It is much easier to cancel someone who works in a coveted laptop class job than it is to cancel a small-business owner who makes key components for a critical national industry.

Centralization makes censorship and gatekeeping much easier.

It is obvious to those with eyes to see and ears to hear that our contemporary economic situation is not sustainable. We cannot keep going on like this. COVID was a blaring warning of the grave dangers of globalism.

America must choose a new path. We must choose the path of self-reliance, frugality, moderation, and prudence. We must choose to embrace national sovereignty and rejuvenation.

For 80 years, the American ruling class has been selling America off for parts. Our privileged geopolitical situation, isolated from Asia and Europe by vast oceans, our intelligent and industrious population, our ethnic homogeneity, our vast natural resources, and our open space are an immense source of wealth. For decades, the grifters and parasites were able to sell and sell and sell. They defrauded their countrymen of jobs, opportunities, and possibilities. We have indebted our children and sold off their inheritance to enjoy pleasures in the present.

All of this is disgusting and contemptible. We need a reckoning.

Tariffs and borders will deliver the national economy we deserve.

In the short run, asset valuations and wages are inversely correlated. 

The more a company must pay its workers, the less profit it can offer investors. For a corporation, high wages are a liability. Yet, this logic is stupid.

In the long run, the greatest asset a company has is the workers who make it up. Without their labor and insight, the company would not exist. High wages make our civil society stronger. Workers who feel like they have skin in the game are more patriotic, more motivated, and more eager to sacrifice for the greater good.

If forced to choose between corporate profits or higher wages, we should choose higher wages. Exporting jobs abroad to cheap Chinese laborers is a form of fraud. It is a betrayal. Good jobs should exist right here in America.

High wages mean better working conditions and better worker safety. America wouldn’t need minimum wage laws if the labor market were tight enough. True, corporations sacrifice profits in this arrangement, but those profits weren’t ever theirs to sacrifice. Workers and owners need each other.

We cannot sell out either one (through outsourcing or socialist revolution, respectively) without incurring deep economic and political wounds.

Capitalism and private property work best when capital and property are distributed broadly and freely.

In the 1970s, CEO compensation to average worker salary was about 20:1. This is a fair deal. It is right for those in charge, who ensure the business exists at all, to be better compensated than those who merely clock in and out. But today, this ratio has grown out of all proportion: it is now 400:1. The average CEO makes 400 times what his worker makes.

American workers deserve more respect. Without them, none of our national wealth would be possible! Competition with cheap foreign labor is a race to the bottom. It is suicide. We need the American worker to have purchasing power and excess capital. We need him to be confident and strong.

This means protecting him from foreign competition that sacrifices living standards for money. Americans deserve their dignity.

We need strong borders, too. There is no point in re-shoring factories only to fill them with immigrants. Third-world immigrants, especially, are a blight. They are often clannish, resentful, and grasping. They do not care about the nation or its history. They want money. They think the older White majority is racist and bad. They vote overwhelmingly Democrat. They need to go.

Immigration drives up housing prices, too. God isn’t making any more land. Artificially inflating the price of homes and space by an endless flow of migrants is a government subsidy towards those who already own homes at the expense of those who wish to acquire them. This is not fair.

Due to America’s vast resources and our (still) high-quality native population, we should have become less dependent on foreign trade as we became wealthier, not more. Trade is a product of excess wealth beyond the needs of life.

Early in the life of the American republic, our native industries were small and inefficient compared to those of Europe. American farmers, therefore, would trade commodities for relatively cheap manufactured goods abroad. But this dynamic created dependency. Americans became wealthier due to trade, but they also became needy. They had to have these manufactured goods to keep growing.

Tariffs incentivized Americans to pour their excess labor into making manufactured goods instead of more commodities made abroad. That policy made America into an industrial powerhouse in its own right instead of a satellite of Europe.

We need a similar policy now in order to recover high middle-class wages and a stable internal economy that isn’t dependent on foreign trade to maintain prosperity.

From an individual or global perspective, foreign trade creates prosperity. From the standpoint of the nation-state, it is a sign of misallocated capital. If America can only eat 50 million bushels of wheat, but we grow 100 million bushels, then this is a sign we have too many people making wheat. In the short run, it is better to ship that excess abroad in order to trade for luxuries.

In the long run, it is better to turn the excess labor of making wheat for export into making the foreign luxuries right here at home.

In a nation with as many resources and as much space as the United States, autarky is much more feasible than for nations like Japan or North Korea. While true autarky is not achievable or desirable—foreign trade and travel are part of individual freedom—it is good to encourage internal manufacturing as much as is reasonable.

Tariffs strike the right balance: they impose costs on foreign goods while channeling revenue back into the nation. The individual maintains access to foreign goods, even though this can harm domestic manufacturers, while paying into the commonwealth of the nation.

Tariffs are good. They protect the high American standard of living, make us more independent of foreign countries, and encourage innovation right here at home. Tariffs benefit us all. They are a necessary hedge to protecting American wealth.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 19:45

Kremlin Hails US Proposal To Deny NATO Membership To Ukraine, Awaits Official Word On Crimea

The Kremlin has belatedly reacted to Washington proposals toward ending the war in Ukraine, by praising and welcoming the Trump administration's ruling out Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); however, as The Wall Street Journal reports in the wake of high-level meetings in Europe last week, Moscow "showed no urgency in reaching a deal."

"We have heard from Washington at various levels that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is out of the question," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a Monday press briefing. "This is something that satisfies us and coincides with our position."

"Ukraine should not be a member of NATO and should not have prospects for integration with it," Peskov said. "This would be a threat to the national interests of the Russian Federation. And this is one of the root causes of the conflict."

The US is reportedly waiting on the Zelensky government to respond to the package of proposals which Washington wants Kiev and Europe to accept.

Peskov signaled in his remarks that questions "especially about a time frame" are not the big priority right now, which contradicts President Trump's insistence that the two warring sides quickly get to the negotiating table with days or weeks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared Monday that Moscow has a "positive attitude" toward genuine efforts to create peace.

Zelensky is expected to convey a decision at a meeting in London later this week. He stipulated on X, "An unconditional cease-fire must be the first step toward peace, and this Easter made it clear that it is Russia’s actions that are prolonging the war."

He went to say the weekend Easter truce was but a PR smokescreen meant to fool Europe and the US on Putin's truce intentions. He accused Russia of having repeatedly violated it.

As for what's said to be another key aspect to the US plan for peace - Crimea's status - the Kremlin was more guarded on this, given final word on this from Washington apparently hasn't been conveyed.

"Anonymously sourced media reports regarding efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict should be taken with a grain of salt," Peskov warned in response to a question about potential American recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea.

"There are numerous reports circulating," Peskov stated. "The search for a peaceful resolution must not be conducted publicly... For this reason, anonymous claims should be evaluated with utmost caution."

Crimea was taken by the Kremlin in 2014 following the CIA/western-orchestrated overthrow of then president Yanukovich in the Maidan coup, and Russia subsequently held a referendum to validate its control but the international community has resisted recognizing the peninsula as Russian to avoid legitimizing the annexation.

Zelensky has lately and repeatedly stressed he will not cede territory to Moscow, and so have European leaders. He and Ukraine and some European officials argue that doing so risks undermining international laws and treaties prohibiting the taking of land through use of force.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 19:20

Drugged Into Oblivion: More Than 60% Of US Adults Admit That They Are Taking Pharmaceutical Drugs

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Americans watch more television than anyone else in the world, and as we watch television we are constantly being bombarded by commercials from pharmaceutical companies.  As I discussed in a previous article, pharmaceutical companies spend more than 15 billion dollars on television advertising each year.  The reason they do this is because it works.  We are the most drugged nation in the history of the world, and the pharmaceutical companies are absolutely swimming in cash.

According to polling that was conducted by KFF, a whopping 61 percent of all U.S. adults admit that they are currently taking at least one pharmaceutical drug.

That is a solid majority of the population.

And once they have you on one drug, they are much more likely to be able to get you on another.

The KFF survey found that 13 percent of U.S. adults are taking one pharmaceutical drug.

The KFF survey found that 11 percent of U.S. adults are taking two pharmaceutical drugs.

The KFF survey found that 10 percent of U.S. adults are taking three pharmaceutical drugs.

And most shocking of all, the KFF survey found that 27 percent of U.S. adults are taking at least four pharmaceutical drugs.

That means that more than a quarter of the adult population is currently on at least four  prescription medications.

That is insane!

But this is where we are at as a society.

Elderly Americans are the biggest victims.  One study found “that an estimated 89 percent of older adults” took at least one  prescription medication within the past 12 months.

Even if you aren’t sick, the system is designed to find a reason why you should become a customer of the big pharmaceutical companies.

For example, the percentage of Americans that have been diagnosed with depression has more than tripled since 2005…

Today, new CDC data showed that nearly 18 percent of Americans had depression in 2023, an all-time high. In 2005, when Cruise’s controversial interview aired, that figure was about 5.4 percent.

At this stage, it is so easy to be diagnosed with depression.

Just act a little bit sad, and they will gladly start giving you pills.

This is particularly true for women.  According to Google AI, women in the United States are using antidepressants at a rate that is more than twice as high as men…

According to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted in 2015-2018, approximately 17.7% of women aged 18 and older reported using antidepressants in the past 30 days. This is significantly higher than the rate for men, which was 8.4%.

If you have been on antidepressants, you already know how they can mess with your head.

I have seen it happen to people that I know personally.

So what is going to happen to the millions of Americans that are highly dependent on these drugs if they suddenly can’t get them anymore?

Today, we import approximately 75 percent of our essential medicines, and most of those essential medicines come from either China or India…

According to Exiger, the U.S. currently imports 75% of its essential medicines, with most of them coming from China and India. While India produces about half of the generic drugs the U.S. imports, it relies heavily on China for 80% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). More than 500 generic drugs rely on one country’s APIs, including treatments for diabetes and heart conditions as well as antibiotics.

Another factor putting Americans at risk is the use of forced labor in the production of pharmaceuticals. Exiger found that multiple suppliers, including Sinopharm, Zhejiang Shindai Chemical Group and Zhejiang Chemicals Export Corp., relied on Uyghur forced labor in Xinjiang. Customs and Border Patrol is supposed to block goods made with forced labor; however, some still get through.

We have got a real mess on our hands.

Many pharmaceutical drugs will soon become much more expensive, and in other cases we could witness extreme shortages.

Millions of U.S. adults are about to experience a very rude awakening.

Of course it isn’t just adults that are being drugged into oblivion.

Today, millions of American boys are being given drugs for ADHD…

More than 21% of 14-year-old boys in this country now supposedly suffer from this condition. The number goes up to 23% for 17-year-old boys. As a result, prescriptions for drugs like Ritalin and Adderall have skyrocketed. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of prescriptions for stimulants to treat ADHD increased dramatically by nearly 60%. Boys between the ages of 10 to 14 were the demographic that saw the highest increase in these prescriptions.

What we are witnessing is a national tragedy.

Most of the boys that are taking these drugs simply do not need them.

As Glenn Back has accurately pointed out, our “feminized education system” tends to punish normal male behavior…

“The truth is we’ve been told not that a feminized education system has increasingly punished normal male behavior it doesn’t understand; it’s not that schools have lost their capacity to educate male students; it’s not that smartphone use and electronics in general have become distractions teachers have been unable to control. Instead, we’re led to believe that boys have suddenly become afflicted with a severe psychological disorder,” Glenn reads from the Daily Wire piece.

He agrees that what’s being done to boys in education is a travesty.

“Everything is just push the girls, push the girls, push the girls — ‘you can be anything.’ ‘Shut up, sit down, have some Ritalin’ to the boys,” he condemns.

The boys who are being written off as distractible and out of control are really just being typical boys.

He is right.

We have been trained to think that typical male behavior is abnormal when it most certainly is not.

Sadly, an increasing percentage of U.S. adults now believe that children are such a “burden” that they don’t want to be parents at all…

A new study shows the number of U.S. adults who do not want to have children has doubled in 20 years.

“We found that the percentage of non-parents who don’t want any children rose from 14% in 2002 to 29% in 2023,” Jennifer Watling Neal, co-author of the study and professor of psychology at Michigan State University (MSU), said.

“During the same period, the percentage of non-parents who plan to have children in the future fell from 79% to 59%,” she added.

The relentless propaganda that they have been feeding us is working.

More U.S. adults than ever before are completely rejecting parenthood.

Needless to say, this is a recipe for societal suicide.

If we do not reproduce ourselves, we can’t expect to have any sort of a positive future.

Sadly, millions of Americans simply do not care about the future at this point because they have already been drugged into oblivion.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 18:55

Why More People Are Testing Their Blood Without A Doctor

Authored by Sheramy Tsai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The scale doesn’t lie—but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

You might be eating better, exercising more, and still seeing the same number each morning. It’s frustrating, discouraging, and, as it turns out, possibly misleading.

For decades, weight has been treated as a primary marker of health. But a number on the scale says little about inflammation, cardiovascular risk, or metabolic dysfunction—factors that often shift before any visible weight loss appears.

That’s why more people are turning to at-home biomarker testing—health tracking that looks beneath the surface, revealing internal changes long before they’re visible in the mirror or on the scale.

Colin Godby, an engineer and father of two, tested his blood out of curiosity, not concern. What he found was unexpected—and alarming.

The at-home test revealed that Godby had hereditary hemochromatosis, a genetic condition that causes iron to accumulate in the body. Left untreated, it can lead to liver disease, heart problems, and other complications. It was a diagnosis standard labs hadn’t caught—and likely wouldn’t have.

“I’d been chalking up fatigue and joint pain to getting older,” he said. “But this gave me answers. Real ones.”

What stood out to Godby wasn’t just the result—it was the realization that he might never have discovered the issue through routine care. He hadn’t planned to see a doctor, and even if he had, a ferritin test likely wouldn’t have been part of a standard workup.

“I realized how blind I was to the nuance of my health,” said Godby. “And how likely it would be for many other people to also have potential issues they might not know about.”

From COVID-19 Swabs to Full Panels

During the pandemic, millions swabbed their noses at home and waited for COVID-19 test results—an experience that introduced many to the idea of testing health at home.

“COVID normalized the idea that you could test yourself and act on the results,” said Jordan Moradian, a product and growth manager at SiPhox Health, a direct-to-consumer testing company, in an interview with The Epoch Times.

Even before the pandemic, health tracking was gaining traction among wellness enthusiasts. COVID-19 accelerated the trend, Moradian said, fueled by renewed interest in immunity, more time at home, and popular science voices like Andrew Huberman.

Grab a SiPhox blood test kit here...

Order SiPhox blood tests over our secure portal

Today, companies like SiPhox, Everlywell, LetsGetChecked, and QuestHealth offer clinical-grade diagnostics at home. Tests typically use finger-prick or saliva samples to measure everything from blood sugar and inflammation to hormones and cholesterol—and deliver results in days.

The global home testing market, valued at more than $10.5 billion in 2024, is projected to nearly double by 2030, according to Grand View Research. The growth reflects a shift toward preventive, patient-led care—emphasizing early detection, frequent monitoring, and personal agency.

Beyond the Doctor’s Office

At-home blood testing gives people more control over their health, often filling gaps left by conventional care.

Most annual checkups include only basic labs—typically a lipid panel and perhaps a comprehensive metabolic panel. However, these often exclude markers of inflammation, insulin resistance, hormone balance, or cardiovascular risk. As a result, early signs of chronic disease may go unnoticed.

“Many people turn to at-home biomarker tracking to test markers their physicians may not typically order,” Moradian said.

In places where diagnostics are limited, these tools offer a fuller health picture before a clinical visit.

The appeal is not just access, but speed. Instead of waiting months for a follow-up panel, users can adjust their lifestyle and retest within weeks, getting near real-time feedback on what’s working.

Moradian identified three groups driving demand: people recovering from health scares who want early warnings; younger, data-driven users testing diets or supplements; and those in “medical deserts” with limited access to care.

Some of the most revealing data come from what routine checkups miss, he said. Many users discover elevated ApoB—a key heart disease marker—even with normal cholesterol. Others uncover hormonal imbalances, such as low testosterone, rarely screened for in standard exams.

For many, this internal data becomes more than diagnostic—it becomes personal. The numbers link daily choices to real biological change.

Motivation in the Metrics

The bathroom scale is slow to move and quick to frustrate. Blood work, by contrast, offers internal proof that change is happening—even before it’s visible. A drop in blood sugar, a dip in inflammation, or a hormone shift can be more motivating than what’s seen in the mirror.

“Improvements in biomarkers almost always come before visible weight changes,” said Dr. Robert Lufkin, a physician and author of “Lies I Taught in Medical School,” in an email interview with The Epoch Times. “Tracking blood sugar or inflammation offers real-time feedback—often before any physical changes show up.”

Moradian sees the same pattern. “Biomarker tracking offers a holistic view of one’s health,” he said. “When someone pursues weight loss, they can also see parallel improvements in blood pressure or kidney function—changes that would otherwise go unnoticed if they focused solely on the scale.”

“This ‘whole-picture’ perspective is hugely motivating,” he added. “Seeing multiple indicators trend positively reinforces that lifestyle changes are working even before outward, easily visible progress appears.”

In a culture obsessed with appearance, internal markers offer a deeper kind of progress:—one rooted in biology, not vanity.

How Accurate Are At-Home Tests?

As at-home blood testing grows, many wonder if the results are as reliable as those from a doctor’s office. Companies like SiPhox say yes—if the right standards are met.

“A common misconception is that at-home testing isn’t as accurate or reliable as clinical testing,” Moradian said. “In reality, reputable at-home tests employ rigorously validated methodologies and must meet strict regulatory standards.”

SiPhox processes tests through Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments and College of American Pathologists-accredited labs, which are federally certified for accuracy and oversight. The company reports a 95 percent to 99 percent match with standard venous draws, benchmarked quarterly against labs like LabCorp and Quest Diagnostics.

However, not all tests meet these standards. Experts urge consumers to look past marketing and ask key questions: Is the lab certified? Are the tests validated? Do clinicians review results?

The Association for Diagnostics & Laboratory Medicine (ADLM) supports at-home testing only through certified labs that provide clear explanations and follow-up options.

“Consumer-directed laboratory testing can provide valuable information,” said Anthony Killeen, the group’s president, in a press release. However, he emphasized that it must be used appropriately and with support from qualified professionals.

ADLM has also warned about quality gaps, calling for tighter regulation of misleading or poorly validated tests. As the industry grows, the group’s message is clear: Convenience must not come at the cost of accuracy.

The Limits of At-Home Testing

At-home blood testing offers fast, easy access to health data and the promise of early detection. However, experts warn that more data doesn’t always lead to better outcomes.

One risk is over-testing. Like daily weigh-ins, frequent checks of glucose or inflammation can fuel anxiety over normal fluctuations.

“Frequent testing without proper context can lead to anxiety, overanalysis, and obsession with small, normal fluctuations,” said Lufkin. “Not every spike or dip is meaningful—bodies are dynamic.”

Another challenge is interpretation. Without a doctor’s guidance, users may make diet or supplement decisions based on a single number.

“Self-monitoring is intended to complement professional medical advice, not replace it,” said Moradian. “We encourage users to share their biomarker data with their health care providers, fostering collaborative decision-making.”

A 2020 review in Archives of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine echoed this concern, noting that consumers “may not know the risks or what significance a result has.” In some cases, false positives led to unnecessary procedures, added costs, and anxiety.

Privacy is another issue. A 2023 study published in JAMA Internal Medicine found that fewer than half of direct-to-consumer companies followed HIPAA guidelines. Only four allowed users to delete their data, while over half admitted they could share it for research or with third parties.

Cost is another barrier. While tests may appear cheaper than lab visits, a full panel can cost $75 to $300, and few are covered by insurance. For frequent users, the price adds up quickly.

Your Body, Your Baseline

At-home testing shifts the focus from population averages to personal baselines—moving health tracking from what works for most to what works for you.

This idea underpins “N=1 medicine,” a growing movement in which individuals act as their own experiments. Instead of relying on annual checkups or generic advice, users collect data, track trends, and make changes based on what works for them.

But where to begin?

Lufkin recommends starting with a foundational lab panel that includes fasting insulin, fasting glucose, HbA1c (a longer-term marker of blood glucose levels), triglycerides and HDL (to calculate the ratio), CRP (a marker of inflammation), LDL-C, and vitamin D.

“These give a snapshot of your metabolic and inflammatory status—far more informative than weight or BMI,” he said.

Once you have your baseline, Lufkin advises a gradual, focused approach:

• Pick one change, such as cutting added sugar, walking after meals, or improving sleep.
• Track how you feel—energy, mood, cravings, and digestion often shift before lab numbers do.
• Retest every three to six months to monitor trends and confirm your direction.

“Even small improvements confirm that your efforts are working—long before the mirror shows it,” he said.

Ultimately, at-home testing isn’t about micromanaging every fluctuation. “You don’t need to be perfect—just curious,” Lufkin said. “Let data guide your next best step. That’s real empowerment.”

And again, pick up a SiPhox test here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 18:05

"China Will Never Accept It": Beijing Warns Countries Against Trade Deal With Trump At China's Expense

It's starting to smell like a real trade war.

Just days after the WSJ reported that Scott Bessent's grand trade war strategy was to force more than 70 US trade partners to sign bilateral deals while aligning against China, Beijing has warned it will retaliate against countries that negotiate trade deals with the US “at the expense of China’s interests”, fueling global tensions as the world’s two economic superpowers lunge at each other over tariffs.

“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the ministry said on Monday. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures in a reciprocal manner.”

“China respects the right of all parties to resolve their economic and trade differences with the United States through equal consultations,” the commerce ministry said adding that if countries encroached on Beijing’s interests, it was “determined and capable of safeguarding its own rights”.

The ministry added that “all parties should stand on the side of fairness and justice and should defend international economic and trade rules and the multilateral trading system”.

It said: “Once international trade returns to the ‘law of the jungle’, where the strong prey on the weak, all countries will become victims.”

The statement by China's commerce ministry, which was in response to reports that Trump’s administration planned to use trade talks with multiple countries to try to isolate China, called on them to instead join Beijing to “resist unilateral bullying."

The sharp escalation follows the failure to gain any traction in trade and tariff negotiations. Trump has called several times for Beijing to open negotiations to avert a trade war, and China has said it is open to talks, but neither side has signalled that high-level contacts are under way.

While last week's WSJ report said the US strategy to gang up on China was intended to pressure Beijing to come to the negotiating table and abandon its defiant stance, China has shown little sign of backing down. Instead, president Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia last week, where he sought to shore up relations with Beijing’s trading partners.

South-east Asian exporters face steep tariffs under the Trump administration, which has also accused them of serving as a transshipment conduit for Chinese goods. Unfortunately for them, without the US as a final customer for most of their exports (including Chinese transshipments), and vows of solidarity will be hollow once countless Pacific rim factories go dark sparking an economic and labor crisis in countries which have virtually no social safety net.

And while China has ironically sought to portray itself as a pillar of the international trading system, it is struggling with weak domestic demand following a deep property slowdown, forcing policymakers to lean on manufacturing and exports for economic growth and leaving the economy vulnerable to the trade war with the US. As a reminder, some 40% of Chinese economic growth is in the form of trade, and while the hit to the US would be mostly along the inflationary and capital market pathways, once more than a third of China's economy is forced to find new end markets,  the pain for the domestic economic will be orders of magnitude worse.

It's also why Goldman now expects China's Q2 real GDP growth to collapse to 0.8% qoq ann from 4.9% in Q1.

Meanwhile, Beijing has repeatedly promised various initiatives to spur consumption but has held back from launching a “bazooka” fiscal stimulus (something it can't do since it has hit debt saturation), instead investing heavily in industry to shake off its reliance on western technology.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 15:00

Jury Convicts Renovaro Biosciences Founder Of Orchestrating Murder-For-Hire Of His Former Business Partner

A federal jury on Friday convicted former Enochian Biosciences (now Renovaro) "scientific founder", "inventor" and former largest shareholder Serhat Gumrukcu of orchestrating the 2018 murder-for-hire of his former business partner in Vermont, according to VTDigger.com. 

The jury found Gumrukcu - who was brought to the attention of market participants by former short seller Hindenburg Research back in 2022, alongside of ShareSleuth - guilty on all three felony charges: murder for hire, conspiracy to commit murder for hire, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud. He now faces a mandatory life sentence. 

Gumrukcu was taken into custody shortly afterward. Jurors deliberated for about six hours, including a lunch break, returning their decision Friday afternoon.

Gumrukcu had formerly been praised by Enochian CEO Mark Dybul - who once worked under Anthony Fauci at the National Institute of Health - with Dybul writing in November 2019 that he was "one of those rare geniuses that is not bound by scientific discipline or dogma". Hindenburg accused Dybul of turning a "blind eye to outrageous fraud" perpetrated by Gumrukcu in a stunning follow up report after the "inventor's" death. 

Mark Dybul, far left, Serhat Gumrukcu, second from left

After being removed from Enochian, the company changed its name and continued without Gumrukcu. The murder for hire case stems from the killing of 39-year-old Gregory Davis, which prosecutors say was ordered by Gumrukcu over a soured oil deal.

“This verdict is the product of years of investigative work,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Michael Drescher, commending the efforts of federal and local law enforcement.

Once a Turkish national living in a Los Angeles mansion, Gumrukcu now awaits formal sentencing later this year. His attorney could not be reached for comment.

A supposed mind-reading magician turned biomedical entrepreneur, Serhat Gumrukcu mingled with Hollywood elites and earned millions through unconventional medical ventures. But during his five-week trial in Burlington, he faced a far different spotlight—three days on the witness stand, denying involvement in the 2018 murder-for-hire of former business partner Gregory Davis.

Though he claimed innocence, Gumrukcu admitted under oath to lying to authorities and said he'd told “so many lies” in past deals he couldn’t remember them all. He acknowledged buying a fake medical degree from Russia, calling it “cheating,” and described his younger self as “arrogant,” advocating unorthodox treatments like leeches and mistletoe.

As part of their investigation into Enochian and Gumrukcu, Hindenburg Research ordered the very same degree to prove that it was fake back in 2022. 

Way back when, @HindenburgRes published on Enochian Biosciences, now Renovaro $RENB. Their scientific genius, Serhat Gumrukcu, just took the stand this week to deny he hired someone to murder a dude he defrauded. But he DID admit, just as Hindenburg uncovered, that he bought a… pic.twitter.com/G7cfLCV1zB

— Codfish Johnny (@CodfishJohnny) April 17, 2025

Prosecutors argued Gumrukcu had Davis killed to prevent him from exposing fraud tied to a failed oil deal—one that could have derailed a lucrative biomedical contract with Enochian BioSciences.

“Gregg Davis was a problem for the defendant,” said prosecutor Paul Van de Graaf. “It was the defendant who paid for the murder.”

Van de Graaf outlined how Gumrukcu financed the $200,000 plot, with testimony from three co-conspirators, including former assistant Berk Eratay. Eratay claimed Gumrukcu told him he wanted to “get rid of a problem,” prompting Eratay to enlist others, including hitman Jerry Banks. Banks testified he posed as a U.S. marshal, kidnapped Davis, and executed him in rural Vermont.

Defense attorney Ethan Balogh argued it was Eratay who “ran the op,” not Gumrukcu. He said the funds were meant for a cryptocurrency project and portrayed Davis as untrustworthy. Balogh accused the three key witnesses—who took plea deals to avoid life sentences—of lying to save themselves: “These men were all going to die in the cage.”

Prosecutors countered that none of them had a reason to kill Davis—except Gumrukcu. As Van de Graaf said, even “peaceful” men can outsource their violence.

As Hindenburg noted in a subsequent report, the story of Gumrukcu’s rise and fall, up to awaiting trial was chronicled in a podcast produced by Amazon’s Wondery (Spotify, Apple).

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 13:45

This One Weird Trick Let D.C. Judges Stage A Coup

Authored by Daniel Greenfield,

The Supreme Court’s ruling in J.G.G. v. Donald J. Trump was not an unqualified triumph for the Trump administration’s deportations of foreign gang members, but it was a definite rebuke not just to Judge Boasberg, but to the entire D.C. Circuit Court shadow government.

The ACLU filed J.G.G. v. Trump in defense of five Venezuelan inmates in New York and Texas. All of the men claimed that they were not gang members and there was no indication that any of them were being deported, denying them any actual standing for coming before the court.

Especially before Judge James Boasberg who is thousands of miles away in Washington D.C.

Despite the lack of standing and the case being filed in the wrong venue, Judge James Boasberg, the chief judge of the D.C. Circuit Court, not only blocked the deportation of all gang members back to Venezuela, but ordered that planes currently over international airspace that were carrying gang members turn around and bring them back to the United States.

Boasberg fumed that the planes were not turned around on his mere word and threatened the Justice Department with repercussions for not recognizing his power over not only the entire country, but also the entire planet.

But why was a judge from the D.C. Circuit Court on a case involving inmates in Texas?

The answer is that leftist organizations and the judges of the D.C. Circuit Court were using one weird trick to seize power over the entire country (if not always the planet) and transform themselves into a shadow government able to block any Trump administration move.

The Supreme Court’s ruling vacating Boasberg’s order stated that, “the detainees are confined in Texas, so venue is improper in the District of Columbia” and directed that the appropriate “venue lies in the district of confinement”. So how did a D.C. judge ever get involved at all?

In Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s concurrence he noted that the “only question is where that judicial review should occur. That venue question turns on whether these transfer claims belong in habeas corpus proceedings or instead may be brought under the Administrative Procedure Act.” The Supreme Court’s ruling even noted that “initially the detainees sought relief in habeas among other causes of action, but they dismissed their habeas claims” and stated that “their claims fall within the ‘core’ of the writ of habeas corpus and thus must be brought in habeas.”

Kavanaugh then laid out a brief history of detainees, including those terrorists at Gitmo, bringing claims under habeas corpus rather than, strangely, under the Administrative Procedure Act.

The Administrative Procedure Act had been created in response to the rise of a vast unaccountable government bureaucracy under FDR. The APA was supposed to stop the administrative state from turning into exactly the kind of self-governing machine it grew into which FDR had described as threatening to “develop a fourth branch of government for which there is no sanction in the Constitution.” It was not meant to block presidents from executing their policies or subject every one of those policies to the review of the D.C. Circuit Court.

The D.C. Circuit Court however has enabled every leftist ‘resistance’ group to go ‘judge shopping’ and file APA complaints to block anything and everything President Trump does.

And so the ACLU appealed to the D.C. Circuit Court, wielding the Administrative Procedure Act, to challenge the question of whether President Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act (which predated the APA by 148 years) applied and what could be defined as wartime. The ACLU was asking Boasberg to block President Trump’s use of presidential powers based on an act meant to check bureaucratic overreach. And Judge Boasberg went ahead and tried to seize control of U.S. forces abroad from President Trump in the name of an act meant to regulate agencies.

The Supreme Court’s response to this unconstitutional abomination was milder than it deserved.

What gave the ACLU and Boasberg the idea that they could get away with it? The ACLU had previously sued the Trump administration for removing materials falsely describing the existence of a ‘transgender’ society as a violation of the “Administrative Procedure Act” by “removing articles without a reasoned basis” as if that were a matter subject to the APA.

In another case, ‘Judge’ Ana Reyes, a Uruguayan activist lawyer appointed by Biden as the first gay ‘Latinx’ judge in the D.C. Circuit Court, blocked the removal of mentally ill individuals who hallucinate the idea that they are members of some other sex than their biological one, by claiming that it’ss “soaked in animus and dripping with pretext, Its language is unabashedly demeaning, its policy stigmatizes transgender persons as inherently unfit” and argued, despite the mountain of evidence, that the Department of Defense had “not provided a legitimate reason for banning all transgender troops” and therefore violated the Administrative Procedure Act.

Reyes had confused the Administrative Procedure Act with her own personal opinion and rather than ruling on the legality of a policy based on actual laws, abused the APA to seize power over the Pentagon to promote her own favored social and sexual worldviews in the APA’s name.

But the Supreme Court has begun shooting down some APA abuses.

In its response to a Biden judge in Massachusetts blocking the Trump administration from ending education grants that violate its ban on DEI, the court noted that Judge Myong Joun and the court “lacked jurisdiction to order the payment of money under the APA” and that monetary cases involving the government are supposed to go to the Court of Federal Claims.

The APA has become a favored weapon of choice whether the issue at hand is financial, foreign policy, deporting illegal aliens or even publishing materials about the existence of transgenderism on government websites. During the first term of the administration, leftist groups had taken to boasting of having entire “teams of APA litigators and experts”.

And with a 93% loss rate for the Trump administration in APA cases, the judicial coup was a sound strategy. All a leftist judge had to do was declare that the Trump administration’s actions were “poorly reasoned” or lacked “sufficient rationale” and would override the president’s orders.

The APA enabled a massive shift of power from the executive branch to district courts, and to the D.C. Circuit Court which had seized virtually unlimited power from both the president and local courts and judges in the process creating an unelected shadow government.

But the D.C. judicial shadow government overreached itself. And Boasberg’s attempt to seize presidential powers has created a constitutional moment of crisis that may unwind the coup.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 13:25

Miami Housing Market Hit By "Breathtaking" Collapse In Demand

Nick Gerli, CEO and Founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, has issued another troubling update on Florida's housing market—this time sounding the alarm about a collapse in demand across the Miami metro area. He described the plunge in sales as "breathtaking."

For the last few years, we've tracked the post-Covid surge in inventory hitting Sun Belt states, including this note from last summer: 

• Florida Housing Downturn "Keeps Getting More Intense By The Day"

This was followed by Gerli's report in late January: "My Favorite Housing Market Graph Right Now"... 

"My Favorite Housing Market Graph Right Now" https://t.co/yzvc1WIyKM

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 30, 2025

Now Gerli has offered more color on the deteriorating housing market in Miami:

The collapse in demand in Miami's housing market is breathtaking. Sales are down 50% from pandemic peak, and are 30% below the long-term average for March. There's a narrative building in Florida that somehow Miami won't be impacted by this housing downturn. And that narrative is likely wrong.

The collapse in demand in Miami's housing market is breathtaking.

Sales are down 50% from pandemic peak, and are 30% below the long-term average for March.

There's a narrative building in Florida that somehow Miami won't be impacted by this housing downturn.

And that narrative… pic.twitter.com/JS9iHEfNYb

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 19, 2025

Gerli debunked some misconceptions about the downturn, with some individuals saying this is "West Coast only."

1) What I'm starting to hear here on the ground in Florida is that this is a "west coast only" downturn. And that it's purely the hurricanes that hit Tampa last year that are causing issues.

But in reality - everywhere in Florida's housing market is negatively impacted,…

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 19, 2025

Inventory in Miami has surged to 51,000 homes - the second highest on record. 

2) Inventory in the Miami metro is up to 51,000 homes, which is the 2nd highest level on record for March according to Realtor's inventory data set. pic.twitter.com/JHV6g08dYW

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 19, 2025

Meanwhile. 

3) Meanwhile, price growth in the 3-county metro is now shifting down.

Values are already dropping in Palm Beach (-2.5%) and Broward (-1.1%) YoY.

While they're still up slightly in Miami-Dade (+1.8%). pic.twitter.com/aZXcn7AtpP

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 19, 2025

"In some ways, it's surprising prices haven't dropped by more already due to the demand collapse. And resulting inventory spike. but in the end housing downturns can take time to play out. And the whole Miami area is at a big risk if the current trends in the market continue," Gerli noted. 

According to the Reventure app, prices across Miami-Dade County are 20.3% overvalued. 

5) In particular, prices in Miami-Dade county are 20.3% overvalued compared to the long-run norms, indicating some major downside risk. pic.twitter.com/Gwboa5av7y

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 19, 2025

He warned: "The more overvalued prices are, the greater the risk of downturns."

6) The more overvalued prices are, the greater the risk of downturns.

You can see Miami went through an epic downturn in the last crash, when prices actually became 33% undervalued.

This is when a lot of people in Miami real estate made their money. pic.twitter.com/vLeaP6vqB9

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 19, 2025

Separately, and more broadly, the US housing inventory for new homes has hit its highest level since 2007.

What could possibly go wrong in an oversupplied housing market, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering around 7%?

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 12:45

Democrat Judge Caught Harboring Suspected Tren de Aragua Gang Member

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

A county judge in New Mexico has reportedly resigned after Homeland Security Investigations agents arrested a suspected Tren de Aragua gang member and other illegal aliens at his home.

The resignation of Doña Ana County Magistrate Judge Joel Cano comes after HSI agents executed a search warrant at his home on Feb. 28—arresting suspected 23-year-old gang member Cristhian Ortega-Lopez there. Agents also took an undisclosed number of other illegal immigrants into custody, and seized four firearms that he handled illegally.

The details of Ortega-Lopez’s case are wild.

According to court records, the suspected Tren de Aragua member was arrested while entering the U.S. illegally on Dec. 15, 2023. Due to overcrowded Border Patrol facilities, Ortega-Lopez was released three days later.

This is absolutely bonkers: It looks like the judge's wife disclosed that the Tren de Aragua member was living with them -- and she seemingly discloses multiples crimes, including that he worked illegally and crossed the border 5 times in recent months

The judge's family might… https://t.co/nLnbo55oFD pic.twitter.com/rnRvRadly7

— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) April 21, 2025

Ortega-Lopez was supposed to stay in Denver pending removal proceedings. However, he moved to El Paso, Texas, without informing Homeland Security or any other government agency.

It was in El Paso where Ortega-Lopez met Nancy Cano, the wife of Judge Cano. The Canos admitted they hired Ortega-Lopez to install a glass door for them—which is illegal since the Venezuelan was not authorized to work.

Ortega-Lopez was evicted from his apartment last April, after which he moved in with the Canos.

The suspected Tren de Aragua member’s relationship with the Canos became cozy, so much so that he was introduced to their daughter, April Cano, who let him use her guns—which, like him working without authorization, is illegal.

Unfortunately for the Canos, Ortega-Lopez posted pictures of himself with those firearms on social media.

The story became arguably even stranger after the HSI agents executed the Feb. 28 search warrant. On March 13, Nancy Cano wrote to U.S. Judge Damian Martinez, pleading for him to have mercy on Ortega-Lopez. In that letter, Cano seemingly admits that she illegally hired the immigrant—and also hired him out to others.

“Each job he got I was told he did an excellent job. No one was ever disappointed. I started to receive more requests for him to return or referral for more jobs,” she said, also enclosing pictures of Ortega-Lopez with the Cano family.

“On five different occasions he went through Border Patrol check points with no problems,” she added—perhaps disclosing yet more crimes. “I took him in as my own son … Please consider his future and give him a chance.”

During a court hearing the next day, U.S. Judge Damian Martinez asked Justice Department prosecutor Maria Armijio if she knew Judge Cano. When the prosecutor said she didn’t know Judge Cano, Martinez said he did know him—and trusted him.

“I’ve met him before several times and he’s got a BS meter like you – a lot of people have never seen. He knows when somebody is BS’ing him,” Judge Martinez said. “I don’t think Judge Cano has a BS meter and I don’t think he would just let anybody live in his property.”

Judge Martinez found that Ortega-Lopez was not a flight risk, and ordered him to be released. The DOJ appealed on March 28, disclosing more information about Ortega-Lopez’s relationship with the Canos, as well as his affiliation with Tren de Aragua. According to the DOJ, agents found ample evidence of his gang affiliation while searching his cell phones.

“A search of the cellphones revealed the following, which affirms the fact that the Defendant is a TdA member: 

"(1) A conversation with an individual on April 30, 2024, in which he refers to his AK-47 tattoo as an ‘Aragua train,’ and comments that he is worried about telling [Nancy Cano] about it,” the DOJ said in its March 28 appeal.

“(2) A conversation with an individual in which they discuss the $5,000 award offered by the State of Texas for TdA members and joke about the reward money,” the DOJ’s appeal added.

“(3) A conversation with an individual in which the other participant warns Defendant about sending photographs that may jeopardize him in the United States that also includes a request to get a grenade or two 38s.”

Agents also allegedly found photographs of two brutal murder victims that includes mutilated bodies, decapitated heads and dismembered hands on Ortega-Lopez’s cell phones.

A hearing is schedule for April 30 for Judge Martinez to reconsider allowing Ortega-Lopez to remain free on bail. The Canos have reportedly declined to comment on the matter.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 12:25

El Salvador Offers To Swap Venezuelans Deported From US For Political Prisoners Held By Venezuela

El Salvaror's President Nayib Bukele has offered to swap 252 Venezuelans deported to his country for "political prisoners" held by Venezuela.

Bukele has agreed to hold deportees from the US in a maximum-security prison known as CECOT in exchange for payment - currently reported at around $6 million and growing. The Trump administration on March 15 sent 261 suspected illegal alien gang members to CECOT under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, and has sent roughly 30 more since then, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The Trump administration alleges that the deported Venezuelan illegals belong to criminal gangs, including Tren de Aragua, which he deemed a terrorist organization earlier this year.

On Sunday, Bukele wrote on X that the 252 Venezuelans could be sent to Venezuela in exchange for the same number of "political prisoners" held by the Maduro government under a "humanitarian agreement."

"Your political prisoners haven’t committed any crime," he wrote.

"Mr. Nicolas Maduro, you have said on numerous occasions that you want the Venezuelans back and free," reads the post. "Unlike you, who have political prisoners, we don't have political prisoners. All the Venezuelans we have in custody were detained as part of an operation against gangs like the Tren de Aragua in the United States.

"Unlike our detainees, many of whom have committed murder, others have committed rape, and some have even been arrested multiple times before being deported, your political prisoners have committed no crime. The only reason they are imprisoned is because they opposed you and your electoral fraud.

"I want to propose a humanitarian agreement that includes the repatriation of 100% of the 252 Venezuelans who were deported, in exchange for the release and delivery of an identical number (252) of the thousands of political prisoners that you hold," Bukele continued (translated).

If Maduro accepts the deal, it could ease political pressure on the Trump administration, which has been accused of denying due process to illegals and was temporarily blocked by the Supreme Court on Saturday from further deportations under the 18th century law.

The proposal comes after US Democrats dropped everything to demand the return of a 'wrongly deported' El Salvadoran national living in the US illegally, Kilmar Abrego Garcia. 

Garcia, whose wife issued a restraining order for domestic violence, was issued a deportation order and was later given a "withholding of removal" status due to danger he faced from a 'rival gang' if he returned to El Salvador.

Last week, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) visited Abrego Garcia in El Salvador after Bukele refused to cooperate with an order by the US Supreme Court instructing the Trump administration to "facilitate" the return of Abrego Garcia.

According to Venezuelan rights group Foro Penal, there are 903 political prisoners being held by Maduro, including protesters and opposition leaders. Among the political prisoners Bukele mentioned is the son-in-law of former diplomat Edmundo González, who ran against Maduro and is considered by some allies of Washington to have won the election. Also being held by Maduro are journalist Roland Carreño, and the mother of opposition leader María Corina Machado.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 12:05

China's Oil Supertankers Slammed With $5.2 Million Fee Per U.S. Port Call

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• The U.S. is introducing fees on operators of China-built vessels calling at U.S. ports.

• These fees could reach up to $5.2 million per call for large supertankers.

• The U.S. Trade Representative states the move aims to address Chinese dominance and bolster the U.S. shipbuilding industry.

The U.S. move to penalize China-built and China-owned vessels calling at U.S. ports could lead to an oil supertanker made in China and operated by a Chinese company facing a fee of up to $5.2 million per call at a U.S. port, shipbrokers have estimated.

The U.S. last week announced fees on vessel owners and operators of China based on net tonnage per U.S. voyage. 

The previous proposal was a per-port-entry fee of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-built vessels, and up to a $1 million per-port-entry fee on any vessel (Chinese-built or non-Chinese-built) for operators that have any Chinese-built vessels in their fleet or orderbook.

Now, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) plans to impose fees on operators of Chinese-built ships based on net tonnage or containers, increasing incrementally over the following years.

Commenting on the new USTR move, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, “Ships and shipping are vital to American economic security and the free flow of commerce.”

“The Trump administration’s actions will begin to reverse Chinese dominance, address threats to the U.S. supply chain, and send a demand signal for U.S.-built ships,” Greer added.

Under the new plan, the fee on a China-made China-operated supertanker could reach up to $5.2 million per call because of the large tonnage of the supertankers compared to smaller oil tankers, according to the research arm of Arrow Shipbroking Group cited by Bloomberg.

The previous per-call only fee would have charged up to $3.5 million for a tanker to call at a U.S. port.

Oil traders have already started to avoid hiring tankers built in China amid concerns that port fees could be coming for Chinese vessels at U.S. ports as part of a plan by President Donald Trump to revitalize the American shipbuilding industry. 

Oil traders and charterers that are booking vessels to call, load, or discharge cargoes at U.S. ports are seeking vessels not built in China, market sources told Bloomberg earlier this month.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 11:45

"He Who Has The Gold Makes The Rules" President Trump Proclaims Over Easter Weekend

While many are still wondering about whether or not the audit of Fort Knox is happening, it doesn't seem like President Trump doubts the country's gold holdings.

With gold surging through $3420/oz. for the first time ever this morning, many are pointing back to one of President Trump's Truth Social posts from yesterday. Trump wrote on Easter: "THE GOLDEN RULE OF NEGOTIATING AND SUCCESS: HE WHO HAS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES. THANK YOU!". 

Recall, in early 2025, Donald Trump and Elon Musk publicly questioned whether Fort Knox still holds its gold reserves. Trump announced plans to visit the site, while Musk suggested a live-streamed inspection, saying, “Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then responded by citing a 2024 audit confirming the presence of 147.3 million ounces of gold, with no major withdrawals in years. He added that senators can request a tour through his office.

Meanwhile, we've laid out a number of reasons we think gold is surging in our article out this morning here. 

"in a sign that investors are rotating investments away from the US, Deutsche Bank AG said that Chinese clients have reduced some of their Treasuries holdings in favor of European debt. European high-quality bonds, Japanese government bonds and gold are likely to be the potential choices for investors as alternatives to Treasuries, said Lillian Tao, head of China macro and global emerging market sales at the bank," we wrote earlier this morning.

While there was no specific catalyst for the suddenly collapse in the illiquid early Asian session, which saw many countries on extended Easter holiday, Bloomberg quoted traders that hedge funds are selling the dollar against virtually any currencies after National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that President Donald Trump is still exploring ways to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, according to traders.

“The president and his team will continue to study that,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday when asked by a reporter if removing Powell was an option.

Hassett then suggested, accurately, that the Fed under Powell, who was appointed by Trump during his first term, had acted politically to benefit Democrats.

“The policy of this Federal Reserve was to raise rates the minute President Trump was elected last time, to say that the supply-side tax cuts that were going to be inflationary,” Hassett said, adding that Fed officials opted not to go “on TV and at IMF meetings and warn about the terrible inflation from the obvious runaway spending from Joe Biden, and the obvious runaway spending from Joe Biden was textbook inflationary,” Hassett continued. “And then they cut rates right ahead of the election.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 11:25

El Salvador Works With Nvidia To Develop Sovereign AI Infrastructure

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

El Salvador, the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, is working with the computer chip giant Nvidia to implement artificial intelligence for national development.

El Salvador signed a letter of intent to collaborate with Nvidia on “sovereign AI to drive innovation and economic growth,” the National Bitcoin Office (ONBTC) of El Salvador announced on X on April 21.

As part of the collaboration, El Salvador will benefit from Nvidia’s AI tools, resources and expertise, enabling the development of sovereign AI capabilities targeting priorities related to culture, language, environment and economy.

“El Salvador will focus on building domestic AI infrastructure, upskilling the workforce, and creating solutions to address local challenges such as improving healthcare delivery, advancing education, and boosting economic productivity,” the announcement said.

AI training for state officials and developers

El Salvador’s latest collaboration with Nvidia marks the country’s commitment to encouraging AI usage to optimize multiple processes within the government and society.

With its new AI push, El Salvador intends to establish AI training programs for developers, researchers and government officials to “ensure the nation has the talent to sustain its AI ambitions.”

Source: The Bitcoin Office

One example includes the creation of AI-driven models to forecast weather and rainfall, which would support emergency response, protect residents in landslide-prone areas and optimize hydroelectric power management.

Not the first AI initiative for El Salvador

El Salvador’s Nvidia partnership adds to a growing list of AI-focused initiatives.

In March 2025, the ONBTC announced Salvador’s university-level public education AI program CUBO_ai, touting it as the “only national education program bringing in top-tier field experts.” The program was announced with support from major Bitcoin bull Cathie Wood, who is expected to give the first lecture as part of the program.

An excerpt from the CUBO_ai announcement by El Salvador. Source: The Bitcoin Office

Last year, Wood predicted that El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) and AI plans may boost GDP tenfold by 2029.

While El Salvador has been aggressively introducing AI initiatives, its Bitcoin ambitions have been somewhat deterred.

In early March, the International Monetary Fund moved to restrict further Bitcoin purchases by El Salvador as part of an extended $1.4 billion funding arrangement with the country. However, the government has continued stacking 1 Bitcoin a day, raising questions about the implications of the deal with the IMF.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 11:05

Putin Confirms End Of Easter Truce, Large-Scale Fighting Resumes

Russia has confirmed the end of its 30-hour Easter truce, which reportedly had some success as areas across the frontlines saw guns and shelling fall silent for the first time in well over three years.

On Monday the Kremlin acknowledged that military action has resumed, and also emphasized again that the ceasefire which began Saturday evening was indicative of its attitude that it is indeed open to any peace initiatives.

"Our attitude to ceasefires is positive, and that is why we proposed the initiative, especially as it was during the holy Easter days," Putin had said of the special holiday weekend truce. "We’ve seen the initial reaction [from Kiev], as I believe everyone did. The statement characterized our proposal as ‘playing with lives’ and so on."

Via Al Jazeera footage

Zelensky had quickly accused Putin of not being genuine, and suggested it was a PR move intended to signal the Trump administration. "As of Easter morning, we can say that the Russian army is trying to create a general impression of a ceasefire, but in some places, it does not abandon individual attempts to advance and inflict losses on Ukraine," he had posted on X.

"In practice, either Putin does not have full control over his army, or the situation proves that in Russia, they have no intention of making a genuine move toward ending the war, and are only interested in favorable PR coverage," Zelensky wrote.

But Putin had pointed out, "Apparently, smarter people – probably foreign handlers – explained that refusing such a proposal is a losing proposition for the Kiev regime, and [the Ukrainians] swiftly agreed."

Putin has also shot back in fresh Monday statements that Zelensky was "ready to reject Easter ceasefire — until his Western curators reminded him it's bad PR to oppose peace outright."

Ukraine has meanwhile proposed extending the truce for 30 days after it ended midnight Sunday, resulting in the Kremlin saying it is studying the possibility. Putin has since said he is reviewing a Ukrainian proposal for each side to case attacks on any civilian infrastructure.

Still, Putin has made clear that he's not interested in a merely temporary solution, but wants to achieve something lasing, on fears that Ukraine would just use a 30-day window to rearm and regroup.

Russian state media has published footage showing that during the Easter truce there was some positive, peaceful engagement among some troops on the ground.

Rare moment of direct communication between Russian & Ukrainian soldiers during Easter ceasefire

They soon returned to their positions, retrieving their wounded pic.twitter.com/gyD6U2trcy

— RT (@RT_com) April 21, 2025

As the for US, the State Department on Sunday that the US remains committed to "a full and comprehensive ceasefire." The Trump administration has made clear it is losing patience, and that both sides need to move fast toward the negotiating table.

Ukraine's Air Force confirmed on Monday the resumption of heavy strikes, describing Russian forces launched 96 drones and three missiles on eastern and southern Ukraine overnight.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 10:45

Abrego Garcia Moved To Lower Security Detention Facility, Given Own Room: State Department

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an illegal immigrant who was deported to El Salvador by the Trump administration, has been transferred from the country’s maximum-security prison to a detention facility, where he now has his own room, according to an April 20 court filing by the U.S. State Department.

Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran native, illegally entered the United States in 2011 and was living in Maryland. He was arrested and deported to El Salvador in March for allegedly being a member of the MS-13 gang, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, despite an immigration judge having issued a withholding of removal—which legally barred his deportation to his home country—in 2019 due to concerns for his safety.

The department said Abrego Garcia was transferred from El Salvador’s Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) to a facility in Santa Ana eight days before he met with U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) on April 17 during the senator’s visit to the country.

“Abrego Garcia told Sen. Van Hollen that he had been placed in the administrative building of Centro Industrial, in a room of his own with a bed and furniture, and that he was not in a cell,” Michael Kozak, a senior official at the State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, said in the filing.

Van Hollen traveled to El Salvador last week to visit Abrego Garcia after Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said the man would not be returned to the United States.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ordered the Trump administration to facilitate his return to the United States after it acknowledged that he was deported following an administrative error.

The administration has said that it lacked the authority to return Abrego Garcia from El Salvador as he was already in the custody of a foreign nation.

Speaking to reporters on April 16, Van Hollen said the Salvadoran government initially denied him a visit or phone call with Abrego Garcia after meeting with the country’s Vice President Félix Ulloa. That visit occurred the following day when Salvadoran officials transported the man to the hotel where Van Hollen was staying.

The senator has accused the Trump administration of defying court orders.

“When you defy court orders and deny one man his Constitutional rights, you threaten them for ALL,” Van Hollen stated on social media, adding that there was no evidence linking Abrego Garcia to the MS-13 gang.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

President Donald Trump has criticized Democrats whom he said were falsely portraying Abrego Garcia as an innocent person, saying that two courts have found him to be a member of “the violent, killer gang MS-13.”

“Those lying to the American People on behalf of violent criminals have to be held responsible by the Agencies and the Courts,” Trump stated in a Truth Social post on Sunday.

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House on April 14, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

On April 18, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released documents detailing Abrego Garcia’s past encounters with law enforcement.

According to the documents, Abrego Garcia was pulled over in Tennessee for speeding while carrying eight other individuals in a vehicle belonging to his employer in December 2022.

No luggage was found in the vehicle. DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said the group’s three-day travel from Texas to Maryland “reek of human trafficking.”

“We hear far too much about the gang members and criminals’ false sob stories and not enough about their victims,” McLaughlin said in a statement. Abrego Garcia was not charged in the incident.

In 2019, Abrego Garcia was identified by the Prince George’s County Police Department’s gang unit as a member of the MS-13 gang. He was later granted withholding of removal by an immigration judge, according to the DHS.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/21/2025 - 08:50