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California Homeschool Families Rally Against Bill For Increased Oversight, Funding Cuts

California Homeschool Families Rally Against Bill For Increased Oversight, Funding Cuts

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Homeschooling families in California are rallying against a bill they say would cut funding for critical enrichment programs and force their charter schools to close down.

Protesters rally to oppose AB 84 in California on June 23, 2025. Courtesy of Stephanie Dawson

Introduced by Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi, AB 84 seeks to increase oversight and accountability for charter schools, particularly non-classroom-based (NCB) programs.

The bill would “strengthen accountability and oversight to crack down on documented fraud and improper use of taxpayer dollars allocated for public education,” Muratsuchi, a Democrat from Los Angeles, said during an Assembly Standing Committee on Education hearing in April. Muratsuchi cited the A3 charter school scandal in San Diego, where in 2019, over $400 million in taxpayer funds was defrauded.

“Some charter schools provide vouchers to families using taxpayer dollars intended for public education.  These vouchers have been spent on family trips to Disneyland, ski resorts, and baseball games,” Muratsuchi told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement on July 2. “AB 84 seeks to ensure that public education funds are properly spent on legitimate educational activities.”

But parents and educators who provide extra curricular activities to students enrolled in charter schools, called vendors, say the bill would hurt students by cutting out significant funding for those classes.

AB 84 would reduce per-student funding for non-classroom based charter schools by up to 30 percent and restrict the use of public funds for enrichment activities unless providers hold traditional teaching credentials, limiting partnerships with specialists and professionals in the community.

For some vendors, that means they’ll have to close their business entirely.

“It would give me a pretty big dent,” Derek Davis, a private boxing coach in Temecula and Menifee, told The Epoch Times on June 27. “I would honestly most likely have to close shop and just go get a different job. So much of my clientele is all through the charter schools.”

Davis provides private boxing lessons at the homes of his students, mostly boys between five and 15 years old. He also offers group coaching lessons, providing an opportunity for children to socialize, similar to a traditional physical education class in public schools.

Davis said the bill would cut his business by about 50 to 75 percent.

“It took me years, a lot of work into going through the system and getting registered through all the charter schools, building the relationships with all the parents, and then meeting the kids,” Davis said. “This bill is going to really affect me negatively.”

Davis said most of his students get a one-hour lesson once or twice a week. Without the funding families currently receive for enrichment, however, most wouldn’t be able to afford his lessons, which cost about $50 to $60 per hour.

But the real people losing out are the students, Davis said.

California has the most homeschooled students in the country, with 547,561 children between five and 17 as of 2024, according to a survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. The state saw a 78 percent increase in homeschool students between 2017 and 2022, with the number doubling during COVID.

Currently, California is classified as a low-regulation state for homeschooling by the Home School Legal Defense Association, due to its minimal curriculum control, notification, and testing requirements.

The state’s low regulations and robust charter school options make it an appealing option for families seeking an alternative to public or private school for their children.

Opposition to AB 84 has been organized by a group called Freedom Angels, who argue the bill would cut funding for children’s enrichment programs, threatening the personalized learning models parents have tailored for their children’s unique interests, talents, and learning styles.

All of that is an ecosystem together, and when you attack one critical part of it, it weakens and damages the entire ecosystem,” Freedom Angels organizer Tara Thornton told The Epoch Times on June 27. “So this is going to affect and impact so many children, their choices, and opportunities.”

Thornton and Denise Aguilar of Freedom Angels are behind the rallies being held at the 30 local district offices of Democratic state senators. The next rally is scheduled for July 14.

Stephanie Dawson (C) and her children, Celeste (L) and Nicholas (R), attend a rally to oppose AB 84 in California on June 23, 2025. Courtesy of Stephanie Dawson

At the local level, homeschooling mom of two Stephanie Dawson has organized groups in Riverside County to rally against the bill. She leads a co-op and is also a school board member at Mission Vista Academy, a non in-person charter school that serves parts of Riverside, Orange, San Diego, and San Bernardino Counties.

Dawson’s 8-year-old son Nicholas takes horseback riding lessons, and drama and zoology classes as part of his homeschool curriculum. Out of pocket, the three enrichment programs through Mission Vista Academy would cost her family approximately $2,000 per school year.

This (bill) actually would impact most of the children in our co-op, as well,” Dawson told The Epoch Times. “So it’s a big thing in our community.”

AB 84 threatens to shut down most charter schools, including Mission Vista Academy.

“A lot of the aspects of this bill would make it so that these charter schools can’t function,” she said. “Our children can receive services and enrichment programs from non-credentialed vendors with this bill that will no longer be allowed so enrichment programs, such as horseback riding lessons, music lessons, STEM programs would be taken away.”

Many vendors for enrichment programs are small businesses owned by people who are specialists in their field, and don’t necessarily hold traditional teaching credentials, such as the ranches that offer horseback riding lessons and music professionals.

Currently, vendors must be pre-approved by the charter school. If they want to participate, they must apply. Parents select the vendors they want to use and vendors invoice the charter school after services are rendered.

The bill would also prohibit schools sharing staff.

“One of our students in our co-op is going into high school soon,” she said. “So, for example, if he’s enrolled in a charter that gets impacted by this bill, the amount of classes that he’s able to take from the charter school, non in-person, would be reduced because currently, the charters are able to share their staff, including their teachers that teach classes online, for example. If they can’t do that, it reduces how many teachers they have per charter school.”

Like most families in Dawson’s co-op, she says that even without the funding for enrichment programs, she would choose to continue to homeschool her son, who has never been to a brick-and-mortar school.

Dawson has shaped his education around his personalized learning style, his skills, talents, and his interests.

“And that makes his education so much more rich than I'd be able to do if he was going to a traditional school,” she said.

The mother of two touts the benefits of alternative education models. Her daughter Celeste, who is now an adult, went through the public school system until her senior year, which coincided with COVID. She enrolled in Mission Vista, part of their first graduating class, where she thrived after being able to select hand-picked enrichment classes that fed her talents and interests.

“When we’re able to focus on those things, it makes their education so much more enriching. So, for the parents and the families who would like to go that route, who would like to step out of the traditional learning style, because their child would thrive elsewhere. It’s important for us to have those options.”

AB 84 passed the Assembly on June 5 43-25 and is currently in the State Senate, referred to the Committee on Rules for assignment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 19:45

Facebook Is Still The Most Important Social News Network

Facebook Is Still The Most Important Social News Network

According to the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2025, over half of under-35-year-olds in the United States now say that social media/video networks are their main source for accessing news, followed by TV and online news sites.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, among the 12 countries that the Reuters Institute has been tracking on this question since 2014, Facebook and YouTube are still the most important channels for news.

 Facebook Is Still the Most Important Social News Network | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Until 2022, Facebook had a reach of 30 percent of all surveyed respondents. This has dropped however to 26 percent, marking a 16 percentage point drop from its peak of 2016.

At the same time, the share of those who consume news via Instagram and Tiktok has risen over recent years, driven by younger demographics.

While just one percent of respondents used TikTok for news in 2020, this figure has recently increased to ten percent.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 19:00

Israel Arms New 'Anti-Hamas' Militias In Gaza: Report

Israel Arms New 'Anti-Hamas' Militias In Gaza: Report

Via The Cradle

Israeli media reported Thursday on the presence of two new, Israeli-backed armed groups operating against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. According to Israeli news outlet Ynet, “one group is active in Gaza City, and the other in Khan Yunis” – where the Israeli military is currently present. 

Ynet had previously reported, citing sources affiliated with the Palestinian Authority (PA), that "new Fatah-aligned militias would soon begin operations in the strip." The same sources told the outlet this week that “these are the very groups now coordinating directly with the IDF,” with both receiving salaries from the PA. 

Illustrative file image, via Flash90

One of the groups is based in Gaza City’s Shujaiya neighborhood – an area known historically as a hotbed of resistance, where Israeli forces are currently preparing to escalate operations. This faction is reportedly linked to Rami Halles, an anti-Hamas activist in Gaza linked to the PA Fatah party

The Halles clan has had bad blood with Hamas since the Islamist's movement’s takeover of Gaza years ago. “Halles and his men are heavily armed and are now receiving Israeli protection and operational cover,” sources cited by Ynet say. 

The second militia, based in the southern city of Khan Yunis, is said to be led by a man named Yasser Hnaidek, who “is receiving Israeli aid – both in weapons and humanitarian supplies – as well as a salary from the PA.” He also hails from a Fatah-linked family in Gaza, according to what has been circulating. 

Hnaidek has denied involvement in any such organization. In a video circulating on social media on Thursday, he refutes reports in Hebrew media that he has cooperated with Israel, affirming, “I am with the resistance and the internal front in Gaza,” adding that “Hamas knows who I am.”

The Halles clan has also released a statement denying “any act of treason or cooperation with Israel.”

The Ynet report follows recent information about an Israeli-backed gang operating in the southernmost city of Rafah – led by the Fatah-linked Yasser Abu Shabab, also allegedly linked to ISIS. 

Abu Shabab and his group were confirmed to have been receiving Israeli support, and are behind the looting of humanitarian aid convoys in Gaza. The gang is also responsible for scouting and securing territory ahead of Israeli military operations. Additionally, Abu Shabab has been accused of drug trafficking.

Hamas has given Abu Shabab 10 days to surrender to authorities on charges of treason, armed rebellion, and forming an armed gang, or face trial in absentia, according to a statement by the Hamas-run Interior Ministry in Gaza on 1 July.

In late 2024, the Hamas-run Interior Ministry in Gaza established a police force in the strip called the Arrow (‘Sahem’) Unit, aimed at combating aid looters and militias linked to Israel. 

Clashes have been breaking out recently between the Arrow Unit and these militants.

Abu Shabab’s militia said in early June 2025 that the Arrow Unit had killed “over 50 of our volunteers, including relatives of our leader, Yasser, as we guarded aid convoys and redistributed supplies that were otherwise destined for corrupt entities linked to Hamas.”

Israel continues to accuse Hamas of diverting humanitarian aid for itself – a claim which the UN has publicly rejected.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 18:15

No Love Letters

No Love Letters

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Financial markets got treated with a surprisingly strong June employment gain in the US yesterday, JOLTing 10y Treasury yields nearly 7bp higher and even more so at the front-end of the curve. Indeed, the market’s change of heart saw the implied probability of a 25bp cut in July fall from 25% to around 5%. That’s back to tail-risk area. European rates – briefly interjected by the US data – remained on a downward path, as recent jawboning from ECB officials on the concerns of a EURUSD exchange rate heading and potentially exceeding the 1.20 level has revived expectations that the ECB could still cut rates after the summer, should such a scenario materialize.

European bond yields also fell partly due to an FT report that the EU will propose a permanent “Joint Debt Instrument for Crisis” in mid-July, to be included in the 2028 budget. While joint borrowing was used during COVID-19 and the EU earlier this year adopted a regulation formally establishing the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, which will see the EU raise €150bn for investment in large-scale defence, making it permanent—especially with grants—would be a major step requiring unanimous approval. Countries like Germany oppose more joint debt, but growing defence and infrastructure needs may push the EU toward compromise, as seen during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, President Trump once again delivered on his promise to “act”, as the One Big and Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) got through Congress with a 218-214 vote. As Philip Marey, our US strategist, explains, the act is supposed to include all Trump’s promises on fiscal policy in his second term. The bill extends the expiring 2017 TCJA income tax cuts to avoid a fiscal cliff and introduces new deductions for tips, overtime, and Social Security taxes. It increases defence and immigration spending, while offsetting costs through cuts to Democratic priorities. These include ending EV tax credits, imposing tariffs on foreign-heavy renewable energy projects, and reducing federal funding for SNAP and Medicaid. States are expected to cover the shortfall. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be raised at Trump’s request, despite opposition from fiscal conservatives.

On balance, budget deficits are projected to rise by $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. But this is not how the proponents of the Bill are trying to sell it! On July 1, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the Senate-passed bill would reduce deficits by $0.4 trillion, based on a baseline that assumes the extension of Trump-era tax cuts (TCJA). However, this assumption deviates from the CBO’s 2017 scoring, which expected those tax cuts to expire. By using this altered baseline, the bill appears fiscally responsible, but in reality, it hides the true cost. Or, as Philip puts it: “With a simple shift-in-accounting trick, $3.8 trillion has disappeared into a black hole of time inconsistency."

More importantly, as Philip notes, the frontloading of tax cuts and spending cut delays will cause a fiscal cliff at the end of 2028 that will create political pressure in 2028 to extend the tax cuts and kick the spending cuts further down the road. Therefore, the upward impact on budget deficits in the next 10 years could be even larger. At the same time, the impact on the economy may prove limited as the extensions of the TCJA have been widely anticipated.

How this pans out remains to be seen of course, but the upward debt trajectory, as envisaged by this multi-annual budget would obviously be something that not only investors but also the Fed will have to weigh.

And this HUGE bill really was just one story out there. Indeed, it is hard to keep up for financial markets participants, let alone businesses, these days when it comes to staying abreast with geo-economic and geopolitical events. We could mention the flaring up of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia following the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russian custody, or the unsuccessful call between President Trump and President Putin on “Ukraine” yesterday (which follows the US’s decision to stop crucial weapon and ammunition supplies to Ukraine), but if we just stick to trade there is already a long list of potentially wave-making developments.

Just consider the rising tensions between the EU and China leading China to cancel part of a forthcoming summit on 24-25 July between the two. Those relations have been strained by European EV tariffs and disagreements over China industrial overcapacity issues and industrial policy and has been compounded by recent export controls on rare earths. The EU has announced a host of anti-dumping probes and/or measures against China this year. This morning China announced a 34.9% anti-dumping duty on EU brandy set to start tomorrow following an earlier probe. But the bigger message here appears to be that China is warning Europe not to pick a side – as it is under significant pressure from the US to do so.

So, on that note and after ‘trade deals’ with Vietnam on Wednesday and with Indonesia on Thursday, this suggests that China may be concerned about the imminent risks of ‘transshipment’ clauses ending up in US-EU agreements as well. That things are ‘moving’ behind the curtains seems clear. But whether that means a deal is close.. Frankly, and despite both sides airing a more positive tone on the progress in the trade negotiations recently, markets participants should still be prepared for anything. Nothing has come out of the last formal negotiations between the EU’s Sefcovic and the US’ Greer yesterday. An agreement in principle, postponing the 9 July deadline, seems to be the best the EU can hope for at the moment with time clearly running out. EC President Von der Leyen confirmed as much. While member states are still divided, the EU seems ready to accept a deal in which the 10% universal tariff remains, with exceptions for alcoholic beverages and US commitment that it will be granted (quota) carveouts for the current car and steel tariffs, plus low tariffs on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and aircraft, which are still upcoming. But it is anything but certain that the EU will be able to reach such a deal, given what the EU is willing to offer and that the sectors dubbed key by the EU, are among those the US wants to bring home production of.

In any case, Trump stated that he will be sending letters to about ten to twelve countries today. And those won’t be love letters. No, these letters would announce tariffs to apply as from 1 August, for those countries that will not be able to agree on a trade deal with the US. Trump said “They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs […],” which suggests some countries may be dealt even higher tariffs than initially announced during Liberation Day. Although the date on which these tariffs would come into effect suggests the effective deadline for a deal has been delayed by a few weeks (from 9 July), it doesn’t alter the overall picture of an uncertain, and possibly disappointing, outcome.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 17:56

Hurricane Hunters Set To Probe Tropical Disturbance Near Georgia

Hurricane Hunters Set To Probe Tropical Disturbance Near Georgia

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season began on a very quiet note, with little storm activity during June. However, as we shift into July, meteorologists on X are closely tracking a developing tropical system off Georgia's east coast. The storm appears disorganized and lopsided at this time, but conditions are becoming more favorable for gradual strengthening. Spaghetti models show multiple forecast paths tracking up the U.S. East Coast, through parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and potentially over southern New Jersey—just barely missing New York City.

"We have "Invest 92L" lurking about 100 miles east of the Georgia coast. It's been showing signs of development, with more thunderstorm activity blossoming. It's unclear if a low-level center has formed, but the Hurricane Hunters will investigate soon," weather app MyRadar wrote on X. 

MyRadar noted, "We see it's roiling with convection, or shower/thunderstorm activity. That's a sign of a healthy disturbance. But the system needs a center of circulation to better organize. Maybe there's a low-level swirl buried somewhere in there... maybe not."

"The European model indicates a 70% chance that a tropical or subtropical depression forms," MyRadar said. 

The latest spaghetti models, which display multiple forecast paths for the storm, indicate it may track up the East Coast, moving through the Mid-Atlantic with a more coastal approach, and narrowly miss New York City.

The months of August and September tend to be the most active for hurricane activity. 

The next named storm, by the way, will be called Chantal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 17:30

Activists Sue Federal Authorities Over ICE Raids In Los Angeles

Activists Sue Federal Authorities Over ICE Raids In Los Angeles

Authored by John Fredricks via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

At the site of the Bubble Bath Hand Car Wash in Torrance, immigration activists gathered on Wednesday morning to announce a lawsuit against the federal government, launched in the early hours of July 2, 2025.

An American flag waves above immigration activists in Torrance, Calif., on July 2, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The suit, which alleges that immigration raids violate the Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights of thousands of people, is being brought by multiple civil and immigration rights groups, according to officials with the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) Foundation of Southern California, one of the plaintiffs.

Mohammad Tajsar, senior attorney with the ACLU Foundation, told reporters that the groups are suing the federal government “for their unlawful, immoral, and unconstitutional siege of the city of Los Angeles and its neighboring communities” in what he called a “landmark lawsuit.”

If you are brown, (federal agents) will hunt you down,” he said.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), has vehemently denied claims of racial profiling, calling it a “disgusting” smear tactic against law enforcement officers.

Mohammad Tajsar, senior staff attorney with the ACLU Foundation of Southern California, speaks in Torrance, Calif., on July 2, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Attorneys and immigration activists were joined by the relatives of several men detained by ICE agents while working on the premises of the car wash. Their last names were not given due to security concerns.

Since June 6, documented cases of arrests made by federal agents have sparked protests throughout the city, leading to arrests and property damage, according to Los Angeles Police Department officials.

Assaults on federal agents have also seen a heavy increase, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Acting Director Todd M. Lyons, who reported that both officers and agents are already facing a 500 percent increase in assaults.

The lawsuit comes just two days after the Trump administration sued the City of Los Angeles on June 30 over its ‘sanctuary city' policies, alleging in federal court that the ordinance violates the Constitution by thwarting immigration enforcement.

ICE agents form a defensive perimeter near an operations center in Los Angeles on June 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

“The United States Constitution’s Supremacy Clause prohibits the city from picking and choosing which federal laws will be enforced and which will not,” United States Attorney for the Central District of California Bill Essayli said in a statement on the lawsuit.

The lawsuit holds the city of Los Angeles accountable for deliberately obstructing the enforcement of federal immigration law.'’

Hilda Solis, a member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, said Tuesday that according to data cited by the Department of Homeland Security, between June 6 and 22, more than 1,600 individuals were detained or deported in Southern California.

“There have been no arrests of killers, rapists or drug dealers,” Mark Rosenbaum, senior special counsel for strategic litigation at legal services group Public Counsel, told reporters in the parking area of the Bubble Bath Hand Car Wash.

One of the clearest patterns that have emerged in the raids in Southern California has been stops and interrogations ... on the basis of apparent race and ethnicity.”

Findings by Department of Homeland Security officials, detailed in a June 26 press release, challenged Rosenbaum’s allegation, stating that recent DHS operations in Los Angeles have “resulted in the arrest of criminal illegal aliens—with convictions ranging from murder, pedophilia, fentanyl trafficking, spousal abuse, sexual assault, and armed robbery.

Wednesday’s proposed class-action suit, brought in Los Angeles federal court, is seeking preliminary and permanent injunctions to stop further alleged violations of Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights, according to attorneys for the plaintiffs.

City News Service contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 16:45

Activists Sue Federal Authorities Over ICE Raids In Los Angeles

Activists Sue Federal Authorities Over ICE Raids In Los Angeles

Authored by John Fredricks via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

At the site of the Bubble Bath Hand Car Wash in Torrance, immigration activists gathered on Wednesday morning to announce a lawsuit against the federal government, launched in the early hours of July 2, 2025.

An American flag waves above immigration activists in Torrance, Calif., on July 2, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The suit, which alleges that immigration raids violate the Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights of thousands of people, is being brought by multiple civil and immigration rights groups, according to officials with the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) Foundation of Southern California, one of the plaintiffs.

Mohammad Tajsar, senior attorney with the ACLU Foundation, told reporters that the groups are suing the federal government “for their unlawful, immoral, and unconstitutional siege of the city of Los Angeles and its neighboring communities” in what he called a “landmark lawsuit.”

If you are brown, (federal agents) will hunt you down,” he said.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), has vehemently denied claims of racial profiling, calling it a “disgusting” smear tactic against law enforcement officers.

Mohammad Tajsar, senior staff attorney with the ACLU Foundation of Southern California, speaks in Torrance, Calif., on July 2, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Attorneys and immigration activists were joined by the relatives of several men detained by ICE agents while working on the premises of the car wash. Their last names were not given due to security concerns.

Since June 6, documented cases of arrests made by federal agents have sparked protests throughout the city, leading to arrests and property damage, according to Los Angeles Police Department officials.

Assaults on federal agents have also seen a heavy increase, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Acting Director Todd M. Lyons, who reported that both officers and agents are already facing a 500 percent increase in assaults.

The lawsuit comes just two days after the Trump administration sued the City of Los Angeles on June 30 over its ‘sanctuary city' policies, alleging in federal court that the ordinance violates the Constitution by thwarting immigration enforcement.

ICE agents form a defensive perimeter near an operations center in Los Angeles on June 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

“The United States Constitution’s Supremacy Clause prohibits the city from picking and choosing which federal laws will be enforced and which will not,” United States Attorney for the Central District of California Bill Essayli said in a statement on the lawsuit.

The lawsuit holds the city of Los Angeles accountable for deliberately obstructing the enforcement of federal immigration law.'’

Hilda Solis, a member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, said Tuesday that according to data cited by the Department of Homeland Security, between June 6 and 22, more than 1,600 individuals were detained or deported in Southern California.

“There have been no arrests of killers, rapists or drug dealers,” Mark Rosenbaum, senior special counsel for strategic litigation at legal services group Public Counsel, told reporters in the parking area of the Bubble Bath Hand Car Wash.

One of the clearest patterns that have emerged in the raids in Southern California has been stops and interrogations ... on the basis of apparent race and ethnicity.”

Findings by Department of Homeland Security officials, detailed in a June 26 press release, challenged Rosenbaum’s allegation, stating that recent DHS operations in Los Angeles have “resulted in the arrest of criminal illegal aliens—with convictions ranging from murder, pedophilia, fentanyl trafficking, spousal abuse, sexual assault, and armed robbery.

Wednesday’s proposed class-action suit, brought in Los Angeles federal court, is seeking preliminary and permanent injunctions to stop further alleged violations of Fourth and Fifth Amendment rights, according to attorneys for the plaintiffs.

City News Service contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 16:45

"A Highly Kinetic Period" - Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Reflects On H1... & What Lies Ahead

"A Highly Kinetic Period" - Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Reflects On H1... & What Lies Ahead

The first half of 2025 was a highly kinetic period, to say the least, according to Goldman Sachs head of hedge fund coverage, Tony Pasquariello.

With a touch of distance from the screens this week, he went back and read a bunch of his recent notes, which served as a reminder of the immense narrative volatility along the path.

For example:

  • US exceptionalism was a bright and shining consensus position at the start of the year...

  • ...that gave way to the worst short-cycle selloff in domestic equities since the depths of COVID...

  • ...only to see S&P close out H1’25 on the dead highs (and we’ve kept going).

What follows from here is a set of views that Pasquariello took away from the past six months -- with an eye towards the next six months...

MARKET DIRECTION:

- given all of the uncertainty and volatility, it’s hard to look back and NOT be a little impressed with how the US economy has performed.

- remember, in the toughest moments of April, many folks believed that a US recession was all but in the bag. 

- in practice, the risk management challenge was two-fold: calibrating huge changes to US political orthodoxy -- at the exact time as new and disruptive technologies were colliding. 

- if you flash forward to today -- with NDX nearly 40% off the lows -- Mr. Market has added another data point to this analog: periods of exceptionally high policy uncertainty usually give way to strong equity returns.

- the April shakeout also calls to mind this well-worn rule of thumb: within a structural bull market, if you want to be short US equities, your timing needs to be impeccable. 

- now, in trying to work out how the market recovered the highs, perhaps it’s simply because governments, corporates and households stayed on the gas.

- don’t take my word for it, simply look at the trajectory of US fiscal spending ... or the capex plans of the Magnificent Seven ... or US retail demand for stocks.

- looking forward, the bull case is this: the US economy is durable, financial conditions are easy and we’re witnessing a remarkable acceleration of applied innovation. 

- set against that, growth is apt to slow during the second half, risk/reward at this multiple isn’t alluring and global bond markets skate on thin ice (witness the UK again this week).

- in the end, it’s still a bull market, yet one that’s delivering less convexity and less consistency than before -- I wrote that earlier in the year, and I’m sticking with it.

- core positions that I believe in (and would marry as a composite): US technology / US power ... steeper global yield curves ... a (somewhat) weaker dollar ... and don’t fight the primary trend in gold. 

A SHORT SET OF THOUGHTS ON US TECH:

- I’ve long believed that this space offers elements of sword AND shield -- while there were some moments when both the sword and the shield had gone missing, NDX finished H1’25 up a very respectable 8%.

- if Q1 was marked by the swing from Stargate euphoria to DeepSeek disruption, Q2 was marked by remarkable earnings news and an unrelenting commitment to capex. 

- taken together, both champions and challengers were on the offensive, such that demand for compute was some form of insatiable ... I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

- in addition, while the sensation around AI is shifting in the press (namely the risk of impingement on jobs), the capex stories were a clear support for the market (which could only amplify the societal challenges).

- valuation: as Pete Callahan notes, NDX currently trades on a 28x P/E, roughly in line with its 5-year average; while not a tailwind, I don’t regard that as a headwind, either.

- what has clearly changed: in both 2023 and 2024, every stock in the Magnificent Seven rallied; at the halfway point this year, you had three up / three down / one flat.

Conclusion: stay in the pocket, particularly into the seasonal sweet spot that is July.

US VS ROW:

- lest it be said, after a very long (and very powerful) run, the US was NOT the best game in town. 

- with a hefty slice of humble pie, I have to give credit to European equites -- it was hard to make up a bullish story at the end of last year, but the fact set changed, and specific pockets totally shined (witness the DAX, the banks, the defense names). 

- so, whether it was the game change in European defense spending -- or the lightning strike that was DeepSeek -- there were a few fundamental inflections that played to the strengths of non-dollar markets.

- now the question is whether structural allocators of capital will sell their holdings of US equities and put the chips elsewhere -- again, I doubt it, and think the dollar bears the brunt of things for now.    

- in the context of that question, Brett Nelson highlighted a recent WSJ article that reminds us of a clear truth: over the past 50 years, Europe has created (from scratch) 14 companies with a market capitalization of more than $10bn; the US has created 241.

- I also found this week’s headline that AstraZeneca is considering a move of their listing from the UK to the US to be notable (when the headline hit, it was the single largest weight in the FTSE).

- in effect, this was the real story of the first half: it was a bull market for GLOBAL equity indices -- simply pull up a chart of MXWO -- where the US didn’t do all of the heavy lifting. 

THE OTHER BIG DYNAMICS IN THE GAME:

- The Fed: our call is now for sequential cuts in September / October / December ... then two more moves in March and June of next year ... taking the terminal rate down to 3-1/8%.

- on geopolitics, I’d argue that recent months underscore two long standing observations: (1) no one really knows anything; (2) markets have no moral conscience and tend to move on from things.

- the dollar: this was the joker in the pack, from consensus long to start the year to consensus short by the end of Q2; given the Fed is set to out-ease everyone, and given more pressure on USD hedge ratios, again I suspect the path of least resistance is to the downside.

- if there’s a bolt-on to the prior line, it’s that I find it really hard to pick other currencies that I actually want to own -- which, of course, leads one back to gold

- the deficit / debt sustainability: the first half was proof of how this variable comes in and out of market focus on a random cadence, leaving both bulls and bears with more questions than answers; I suspect it will be with us for a long while, and argues for steeper curves / more term premium.

- flows, positioning: it never ceases to amaze me how market technicals can hold so much sway at market inflection points; I can only assume that technical discipline will continue to matter in the second half (the current bias is favorable, thanks to retail and systematic strategies).

- a follow-on from the prior line: I’d keep a close eye on gross exposures -- which have been running very high, and saw a significant pressure test this week (e.g. the violent breakdown in the momentum factor).

- breadth: yes, this has been a narrow rally, but such is life in a top heavy index; said another way, I don’t buy the old wisdom that poor breadth means S&P is an unhealthy asset.  

- valuation: S&P trades on an objectively elevated multiple, yet that fact alone hasn’t stood in the way of progress, and I suspect the onus is now on earnings to carry the load. 

- bitcoin: brick-by-brick, I think it continues to achieve a modicum of respect as a long-term store-of-value (as much of the altcoin universe struggles).

- stablecoins: this theme came on like a wildfire, and I suspect it isn’t going to magically disappear anytime soon;.

- hedge funds: you know my bias, but the fact is both discretionary and systematic managers are performing well.

- the celebration of July 4th, I agree with this wisdom from the great Warren Buffett: “we’re always in the process of change, and we’ll always find all kinds of things to criticize in the country ... but the luckiest day in my life is the day I was born, because I was born in the United States.”

Finally, a chart for the road...

...one that invites as big a question as any right now. 

With thanks to Brett Nelson, this plots earnings growth of the US vs various cuts of ROW (12-month trailing EPS, expressed in local FX).

To my eye, it clearly demonstrates why US equities have outperformed so much in the post-GFC era (particularly post-COVID). 

Now the debate turns on whether that immense gap is set to converge, or not:

More here from Goldman Sachs Sales & Trading team available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 16:00

"A Highly Kinetic Period" - Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Reflects On H1... & What Lies Ahead

"A Highly Kinetic Period" - Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Reflects On H1... & What Lies Ahead

The first half of 2025 was a highly kinetic period, to say the least, according to Goldman Sachs head of hedge fund coverage, Tony Pasquariello.

With a touch of distance from the screens this week, he went back and read a bunch of his recent notes, which served as a reminder of the immense narrative volatility along the path.

For example:

  • US exceptionalism was a bright and shining consensus position at the start of the year...

  • ...that gave way to the worst short-cycle selloff in domestic equities since the depths of COVID...

  • ...only to see S&P close out H1’25 on the dead highs (and we’ve kept going).

What follows from here is a set of views that Pasquariello took away from the past six months -- with an eye towards the next six months...

MARKET DIRECTION:

- given all of the uncertainty and volatility, it’s hard to look back and NOT be a little impressed with how the US economy has performed.

- remember, in the toughest moments of April, many folks believed that a US recession was all but in the bag. 

- in practice, the risk management challenge was two-fold: calibrating huge changes to US political orthodoxy -- at the exact time as new and disruptive technologies were colliding. 

- if you flash forward to today -- with NDX nearly 40% off the lows -- Mr. Market has added another data point to this analog: periods of exceptionally high policy uncertainty usually give way to strong equity returns.

- the April shakeout also calls to mind this well-worn rule of thumb: within a structural bull market, if you want to be short US equities, your timing needs to be impeccable. 

- now, in trying to work out how the market recovered the highs, perhaps it’s simply because governments, corporates and households stayed on the gas.

- don’t take my word for it, simply look at the trajectory of US fiscal spending ... or the capex plans of the Magnificent Seven ... or US retail demand for stocks.

- looking forward, the bull case is this: the US economy is durable, financial conditions are easy and we’re witnessing a remarkable acceleration of applied innovation. 

- set against that, growth is apt to slow during the second half, risk/reward at this multiple isn’t alluring and global bond markets skate on thin ice (witness the UK again this week).

- in the end, it’s still a bull market, yet one that’s delivering less convexity and less consistency than before -- I wrote that earlier in the year, and I’m sticking with it.

- core positions that I believe in (and would marry as a composite): US technology / US power ... steeper global yield curves ... a (somewhat) weaker dollar ... and don’t fight the primary trend in gold. 

A SHORT SET OF THOUGHTS ON US TECH:

- I’ve long believed that this space offers elements of sword AND shield -- while there were some moments when both the sword and the shield had gone missing, NDX finished H1’25 up a very respectable 8%.

- if Q1 was marked by the swing from Stargate euphoria to DeepSeek disruption, Q2 was marked by remarkable earnings news and an unrelenting commitment to capex. 

- taken together, both champions and challengers were on the offensive, such that demand for compute was some form of insatiable ... I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

- in addition, while the sensation around AI is shifting in the press (namely the risk of impingement on jobs), the capex stories were a clear support for the market (which could only amplify the societal challenges).

- valuation: as Pete Callahan notes, NDX currently trades on a 28x P/E, roughly in line with its 5-year average; while not a tailwind, I don’t regard that as a headwind, either.

- what has clearly changed: in both 2023 and 2024, every stock in the Magnificent Seven rallied; at the halfway point this year, you had three up / three down / one flat.

Conclusion: stay in the pocket, particularly into the seasonal sweet spot that is July.

US VS ROW:

- lest it be said, after a very long (and very powerful) run, the US was NOT the best game in town. 

- with a hefty slice of humble pie, I have to give credit to European equites -- it was hard to make up a bullish story at the end of last year, but the fact set changed, and specific pockets totally shined (witness the DAX, the banks, the defense names). 

- so, whether it was the game change in European defense spending -- or the lightning strike that was DeepSeek -- there were a few fundamental inflections that played to the strengths of non-dollar markets.

- now the question is whether structural allocators of capital will sell their holdings of US equities and put the chips elsewhere -- again, I doubt it, and think the dollar bears the brunt of things for now.    

- in the context of that question, Brett Nelson highlighted a recent WSJ article that reminds us of a clear truth: over the past 50 years, Europe has created (from scratch) 14 companies with a market capitalization of more than $10bn; the US has created 241.

- I also found this week’s headline that AstraZeneca is considering a move of their listing from the UK to the US to be notable (when the headline hit, it was the single largest weight in the FTSE).

- in effect, this was the real story of the first half: it was a bull market for GLOBAL equity indices -- simply pull up a chart of MXWO -- where the US didn’t do all of the heavy lifting. 

THE OTHER BIG DYNAMICS IN THE GAME:

- The Fed: our call is now for sequential cuts in September / October / December ... then two more moves in March and June of next year ... taking the terminal rate down to 3-1/8%.

- on geopolitics, I’d argue that recent months underscore two long standing observations: (1) no one really knows anything; (2) markets have no moral conscience and tend to move on from things.

- the dollar: this was the joker in the pack, from consensus long to start the year to consensus short by the end of Q2; given the Fed is set to out-ease everyone, and given more pressure on USD hedge ratios, again I suspect the path of least resistance is to the downside.

- if there’s a bolt-on to the prior line, it’s that I find it really hard to pick other currencies that I actually want to own -- which, of course, leads one back to gold

- the deficit / debt sustainability: the first half was proof of how this variable comes in and out of market focus on a random cadence, leaving both bulls and bears with more questions than answers; I suspect it will be with us for a long while, and argues for steeper curves / more term premium.

- flows, positioning: it never ceases to amaze me how market technicals can hold so much sway at market inflection points; I can only assume that technical discipline will continue to matter in the second half (the current bias is favorable, thanks to retail and systematic strategies).

- a follow-on from the prior line: I’d keep a close eye on gross exposures -- which have been running very high, and saw a significant pressure test this week (e.g. the violent breakdown in the momentum factor).

- breadth: yes, this has been a narrow rally, but such is life in a top heavy index; said another way, I don’t buy the old wisdom that poor breadth means S&P is an unhealthy asset.  

- valuation: S&P trades on an objectively elevated multiple, yet that fact alone hasn’t stood in the way of progress, and I suspect the onus is now on earnings to carry the load. 

- bitcoin: brick-by-brick, I think it continues to achieve a modicum of respect as a long-term store-of-value (as much of the altcoin universe struggles).

- stablecoins: this theme came on like a wildfire, and I suspect it isn’t going to magically disappear anytime soon;.

- hedge funds: you know my bias, but the fact is both discretionary and systematic managers are performing well.

- the celebration of July 4th, I agree with this wisdom from the great Warren Buffett: “we’re always in the process of change, and we’ll always find all kinds of things to criticize in the country ... but the luckiest day in my life is the day I was born, because I was born in the United States.”

Finally, a chart for the road...

...one that invites as big a question as any right now. 

With thanks to Brett Nelson, this plots earnings growth of the US vs various cuts of ROW (12-month trailing EPS, expressed in local FX).

To my eye, it clearly demonstrates why US equities have outperformed so much in the post-GFC era (particularly post-COVID). 

Now the debate turns on whether that immense gap is set to converge, or not:

More here from Goldman Sachs Sales & Trading team available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 16:00

Waste Of The Day: COVID Loans For 11-Year-Olds

Waste Of The Day: COVID Loans For 11-Year-Olds

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A weekly allowance or a lemonade stand are great ways to teach young kids how to manage their money. A loan from the Small Business Administration is not. 

Yet according to the Department of Government Efficiency, the SBA issued 5,593 loans in 2020 and 2021 worth $312 million to businesses whose listed owners were 11 years old or younger. Either America’s children have suddenly become expert entrepreneurs or, more likely, another round of fraud from the Covid-19 pandemic has been uncovered. 

DOGE also claimed that the SBA gave 3,095 loans worth $333 million to borrowers who were listed as 115 years or older, bringing the total age-related fraud to $645 million. 

Key facts: An SBA spokesperson confirmed to the fact-checking site Snopes that "According to our preliminary analysis, SBA can confirm that over 5,500 loans, totaling about $312M, were distributed to businesses whose only listed owner was 11 years old or younger at the time of the disbursement." 

The White House did not offer additional context to Snopes or FOX News, and it’s unclear how the loans were actually used. Isabel Casillas Guzman, the SBA administrator at the time when the loans were paid, also did not return Snopes’ request for comment. 

Snopes noted that it’s possible the loans were paid to adult borrowers, but the recipients appear as children in the government database because of poor recordkeeping.

Either way, the mistake is serious. The Pandemic Response Accountability Committee recently claimed that at least $79 billion of fraud during the pandemic was “readily preventable,” but government officials were not verifying Social Security numbers before paying out loans. 

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com 

Background: Though DOGE provided taxpayers with a great service by announcing the potential fraud publicly, full transparency would require the government to release records showing the loans so DOGE’s claims can be independently verified. 

That’s a common theme with DOGE’s efforts to fight government waste. After DOGE announced it had cancelled 7 million active Social Security numbers for people 120 years or older, OpenTheBooks filed a Freedom of Information Act request for a list of Social Security disbursements by age group. The Social Security Administration claimed that no records exist. 

OpenTheBooks also analyzed every program cancelled by DOGE as of May 27 and found that the average person can only verify the dollar figures for 42% of the contracts and 27% of the grants. That doesn’t necessarily mean DOGE’s dollar figures are mistaken, but it means that public sites like USAspending.gov that record government spending data are insufficient for full transparency because they do not update in real time. 

Summary: Whether or not 11-year-olds actually received loans from the SBA, it’s clear that government recordkeeping and fraud prevention measures need a serious overhaul. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 15:25

Waste Of The Day: COVID Loans For 11-Year-Olds

Waste Of The Day: COVID Loans For 11-Year-Olds

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A weekly allowance or a lemonade stand are great ways to teach young kids how to manage their money. A loan from the Small Business Administration is not. 

Yet according to the Department of Government Efficiency, the SBA issued 5,593 loans in 2020 and 2021 worth $312 million to businesses whose listed owners were 11 years old or younger. Either America’s children have suddenly become expert entrepreneurs or, more likely, another round of fraud from the Covid-19 pandemic has been uncovered. 

DOGE also claimed that the SBA gave 3,095 loans worth $333 million to borrowers who were listed as 115 years or older, bringing the total age-related fraud to $645 million. 

Key facts: An SBA spokesperson confirmed to the fact-checking site Snopes that "According to our preliminary analysis, SBA can confirm that over 5,500 loans, totaling about $312M, were distributed to businesses whose only listed owner was 11 years old or younger at the time of the disbursement." 

The White House did not offer additional context to Snopes or FOX News, and it’s unclear how the loans were actually used. Isabel Casillas Guzman, the SBA administrator at the time when the loans were paid, also did not return Snopes’ request for comment. 

Snopes noted that it’s possible the loans were paid to adult borrowers, but the recipients appear as children in the government database because of poor recordkeeping.

Either way, the mistake is serious. The Pandemic Response Accountability Committee recently claimed that at least $79 billion of fraud during the pandemic was “readily preventable,” but government officials were not verifying Social Security numbers before paying out loans. 

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com 

Background: Though DOGE provided taxpayers with a great service by announcing the potential fraud publicly, full transparency would require the government to release records showing the loans so DOGE’s claims can be independently verified. 

That’s a common theme with DOGE’s efforts to fight government waste. After DOGE announced it had cancelled 7 million active Social Security numbers for people 120 years or older, OpenTheBooks filed a Freedom of Information Act request for a list of Social Security disbursements by age group. The Social Security Administration claimed that no records exist. 

OpenTheBooks also analyzed every program cancelled by DOGE as of May 27 and found that the average person can only verify the dollar figures for 42% of the contracts and 27% of the grants. That doesn’t necessarily mean DOGE’s dollar figures are mistaken, but it means that public sites like USAspending.gov that record government spending data are insufficient for full transparency because they do not update in real time. 

Summary: Whether or not 11-year-olds actually received loans from the SBA, it’s clear that government recordkeeping and fraud prevention measures need a serious overhaul. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 15:25

The (Falling) Price Of A July 4th Cookout

The (Falling) Price Of A July 4th Cookout

This Independence Day, shoppers can expect to pay an average of $70.92 for a cookout for 10 people, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) annual Fourth of July market basket survey. This marks a 30 cent decline from last year, although it remains the second most expensive year since the survey began back in 2013.

Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart just how much different ingredients for a typical Fourth of July menu will set people back this year.

 The Price of a July 4 Cookout | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to AFBF analysts, while there have been price drops in the cost of items such as pork chops (-8.8 percent), chips (-2.1 percent) and hamburger buns (-2.6 percent), there have also been increases in the cost of beef (+4.4 percent), potato salad (+6.6 percent) and canned pork and beans (+8.2 percent).

“Inflation and lower availability of some food items continue to keep prices stubbornly high for America’s families,” said AFBF Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub.

“High prices don’t mean more money for farmers, however. Farmers are price takers, not price makers. Their share of the food retail dollar is just 15 percent. The cost of running their farm is up, from labor and transportation, to taxes.”

Among the factors influencing the increases are the fact fewer cattle are available for processing, while steel and aluminium tariffs have led to increased prices on canned goods. Egg prices remain elevated, however have come down from their peaks earlier this year as egg-laying chicken populations are starting to recover from avian influenza. Meanwhile, wheat prices are lower than they were several years ago, contributing to the slightly lower cost of hamburger buns.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/04/2025 - 14:50

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