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Watch: Carney Says Nothing Off Table As "Era Of Close Ties With US Is Over", But Delays Tariff Retaliation

Watch: Carney Says Nothing Off Table As "Era Of Close Ties With US Is Over", But Delays Tariff Retaliation

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a blistering speech on Thursday, declaring that the era of deep economic, security and military ties with the United States "is over," after President Donald Trump announced steep auto tariffs of 25% on imports into the United States - which could affect an estimated 500,000 jobs in the Canadian auto industry.

Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada “won’t back down” from President Donald Trump’s trade war and tariffs on the auto sector.

"We will fight the U.S. tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of our own that will have maximum impact in the United States and minimum impacts here in Canada," Carney said during a press conference that took him off the campaign trail ahead of the country's April 28 general election, adding that "Nothing is off the table to defend our workers and our country."

One option would be for Canada to impose excise duties on exports of oil, potash and other commodities - however the Canadian government says they will delay any sort of announcement until they see what the Trump administration does on April 2, Carney told reporters.

Carney called Trump's auto tariffs "unjustified" and said they were in breach of existing trade deals, while also warning Candians that Trump had permanently altered relations to the point that regardless of any future deals, there would be "no turning back."

"The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over," he said, adding that Canada's response to the tariffs "is to fight, is to protect, is to build."

"We will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of our own that will have maximum impact in the United States and minimum impacts here in Canada," Carney added.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford spoke with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and said Lutnick confirmed to him that Canada won't be hit with an 'immediate' tariff, and that finished vehicles with US parts will face a rate lower than 25%. A car with US parts would instead be subject to a tariff of 12.5%.

Ford told reporters Lutnick did not give him any assurances there would be any easing or softening of the tariffs.

When Ford was asked whether Lutnick knows what Trump is planning to announce April 2, he said. “I think he has an idea.” Then the premier added: “Or maybe he doesn’t. That’s even scarier if he doesn’t. So let’s see what they come forward with on April 2, but we’re prepared, we’re ready.” -Bloomberg

"Americans need us. I told him," said Ford of his call with Lutnick, adding that he's "not sure" if the Trump administration fully understands the North American vehicle supply chain.

"They don’t have the people down there to fill the jobs."

The White house, meanwhile, has reached out to schedule a call with Carney, which he says should happen in the "next day or two," but that while he'll talk to Trump - he will not participate in substantive trade negotiations with Washington until Trump shows Canada "respect," which would include cutting out Trump's repeated threats to annex Canada as America's 51st state.

"For me, there are two conditions, not necessarily for a call, but a negotiation with the United States. First Respect, respect for our sovereignty as a country... apparently it's a lot for him," Carney said, adding "There has to be comprehensive discussion between the two of us, including with respect to our economy and our security."

*  *  *

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Satisfaction guaranteed. If you think it's bullshit, or it just doesn't work for you, simply ask for a refund... Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 18:20

What IT Security?

What IT Security?

Authored by Karl Denninger via Market-Ticker.org,

Oh boy....

President Donald Trump revealed that a staffer with national security advisor Mike Waltz's office included the editor-in-chief of the Atlantic in a Signal group chat with senior Trump officials who were discussing plans for an upcoming strike on Houthi rebels in Yemen.

"It was one of Michael’s people on the phone. A staffer had his number on there," Trump told NBC in a phone interview when asked how Jeffrey Goldberg, the Atlantic's editor-in-chief, was added to the high-profile chat.

Who was the person with zero IT security expertise that had people in the DOD and NatSec part of the government using anything other than their own infrastructure for such things?

There's utterly no reason to ever trust any external system for sensitive information internal to the government.

Ever.

Let's say, for example, I send you an email.  I typically "sign" them.  By doing this the email has included both an attestation that it has not been altered, as otherwise the signature will not validate, and my public key.

Now if your computer has a trust chain to verify that -- and I publish that, by the way (so it can validate that public key is good) then you can now send me an encrypted message.  Once you do so not even you can read it -- only I can, because I'm the only one with the other half of the key.

With me so far?

Now let's say we start up a conversation and we have ten people in there.  I send an encrypted message to all ten. What I actually send is ten messages because each person's public key is different and again, each of them are the only people with the other half of it.  So far so good.  They each get it, they can decode it, but not the copy sent to anyone else -- and since I signed it if that signature verifies they know it hasn't been tampered with in transit.

But in this case, since you care about the integrity of who can be a part of conversations generally, all transmissions go through the government's infrastructure.  The government, incidentally, already has the PKI infrastructure (issuing certificates, attesting to them, etc. -- this is part of, but not all of, how a CAC card works) to do all this.

Thus when you send the message the server -- which is a DOD/NatSec server -- is the machine that processes it.  Because a public key is in fact public it knows who the message is going to (all of the recipients) and whether the DOD/NatSec servers issued the certificates involved and to whom.

The server cannot see the unencrypted contents of the message as only the recipient of each transmission has the private key required to decode it -- but it knows who its going to and their public certificate.  This means it can be set up to look at same and refuse to deliver a message if it is to someone who doesn't have a DOD-issued certificate and, for example, the other people in the communication do; it could either embargo it (after all, there might be circumstances where this is legitimate) or alert someone that something hinky may be going on, throw it in the trash summarily, or some combination.

It can't see the contents, but it can interdict the message before it ever leaves the DOD and identify who transmitted it because the machine that sent it is known.

In other words if you set things up properly, and run them properly, what happened can't happen and if it is attempted, either by accident or malice, not only does it not work the person who did it gets busted if the transmission was not legitimate.

Yeah.

That.

Security of communications is supposed to be important.... right?

So why did CISA, which is an official government agency, recommend Signal specifically when it has no nexus within the government and thus, while it may be end-to-end encrypted (and not full of holes, which I can't speak to since I've never looked at it in sufficient detail to have a valid opinion) it has no means of controlling who is in a chat nor to prevent anyone who might, whether through accident or malice, add someone unauthorized to a new or existing one and there is no means for the participants or organization to which they belong to vet who is in said chat.

You can have the best encryption on the planet -- absolutely impossible to break -- but if there is either someone foolish or malicious it is meaningless exactly as while you can have a fortified home or business if you leave the front door unlocked it matters not.

The entire reason you use a chain of trust and only allow entities known to have been authorized through that chain to be included in any sort of access regime is precisely this.  Humans are both fallible and, from time to time, corrupt.

Either is fatal to a security scheme and thus you must design in and insist on a control process to mitigate that risk.

We do not, at present, know if the breach here was due to stupidity (accident counts) or malice but what we do know is that CISA -- an official government source -- made a recommendation during the last Administration (so no, you can't lay this one on Trump) to use infrastructure for allegedly "secure" communications that lacked any measure of control over human accident or malice in terms of recipient (and group) management.

This incident, beyond the actual person who added (or changed) the recipient so that reporter was in the list, is directly chargeable against CISA and their recommendation.  Since it is their job to put forward such standards for the government this is a fatal failure and every individual involved in that process, no matter how small their involvement, must be both publicly identified and expelled.  As there was apparently no classified data breached as a result of this criminal sanction is not appropriate -- but permanent severance from any government employment now and in the future, along with summary and permanent revocation of any clearance held by said persons is not just advisable -- it is mandatory.

Security is a process, not a product.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 17:40

Some Illegal Immigrants Deported Under Alien Enemies Act Were Returned To US: Filings

Some Illegal Immigrants Deported Under Alien Enemies Act Were Returned To US: Filings

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

At least 10 illegal immigrants who were recently deported by U.S. authorities to El Salvador were returned to the United States, according to new court filings.

A deportation flight boards passengers from Panama funded by the United States, in Panama City on Feb. 13, 2025. Telemetro via AP/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

Nine women on one of the planes that landed in El Salvador were kept on board the aircraft and ultimately transported back to America, a Venezuelan national with the initials S.Z.F.R. said in one of the documents that was filed with the federal court in Washington on March 24.

The woman said that after a refueling stop, the plane was said to have landed in El Salvador. The men were led off the plane, but the women were not.

I was told that the President of El Salvador would not accept women. I was also told that we were going back to detention in the U.S.,” the woman said.

She said that all of the women on the plane were taken to Laredo, Texas, where they had been before departing for El Salvador.

The sworn declaration was entered in a legal case involving the use of the Alien Enemies Act by the Trump administration. After President Donald Trump signed an order declaring an invasion of the United States by the Venezuelan terrorist gang Tren de Aragua, U.S. authorities transported some illegal immigrants suspected of being part of the gang to El Salvador, which entered an agreement with the United States to accept criminal deportees for incarceration.

Venezuelans in immigration custody sued, alleging the proclamation was illegally being used against nationals of a country that is not at war with America.

 U.S. District Judge James Boasberg on March 15 blocked the administration from deporting alleged gang members solely under the Alien Enemies Act. A U.S. official said that two planes were already outside U.S. airspace when the judge’s order was released. A third plane did depart after the order but contained illegal immigrants who had been ordered removed by U.S. judges, the official said.

In a separate declaration, a Nicaraguan male whose name was redacted said he was placed on a plane on March 15 along with others, including Venezuelan and El Salvadoran nationals. He said the plane flew to El Salvador and that he was removed from the aircraft. After he answered questions about his citizenship, he was told to sit on the floor of one of the planes, he said.

I overheard a Salvadoran official tell an ICE officer that the Salvadoran government would not detain someone from another Central American country because of the conflict it would cause. I also heard him say that they would not receive the females because the prison was not for females, and females were not mentioned in the agreement,” the man said.

The man said he was sent back to Texas, arriving on March 16.

“These declarations are submitted to refute the government’s contention that it was not ‘feasibl[e]’ for the planes to bring anyone back and that this Court did not account for practical considerations like whether the planes ‘had enough fuel’ to turn around,” lawyers for the illegal immigrants told Boasberg.

In a previous motion, government lawyers said the judge incorrectly suggested that a government attorney was able to divert the aircraft carrying the deportees.

“The comment betrayed a complete misunderstanding of the serious national security, safety, regulatory, and logistical problems presented by a fiat from the Court directed at pilots operating outside the United States and was made without regard to whether any such aircraft could feasibly be diverted or even had enough fuel to safely do so,” the government lawyers stated.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment.

Lawyers for the plaintiffs say Boasberg should find that the illegal immigrants were illegally removed in violation of his order and that he should order those who were illegally deported to be returned to the United States.

In other developments in the case on Thursday, a federal court heard the Trump administration’s appeal of Boasberg’s order. The administration invoked a state secrets privilege, informing the judge that officials would not provide information about deportees.

Boasberg said on Friday that plaintiffs must respond to the invocation by March 31 if they want to be heard.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 17:00

Appeals Court Halts Judge's Order Requiring Musk To Hand Over DOGE Records

Appeals Court Halts Judge's Order Requiring Musk To Hand Over DOGE Records

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court has temporarily blocked a discovery order from U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan that would have required Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to turn over documents and respond to written questions about their role in advising cuts in certain parts of the federal government.

In a ruling issued on March 26, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit granted an emergency stay of Chutkan’s March 12 order, which had largely granted limited, expedited discovery to a coalition of 13 Democratic-led states, requiring Musk and DOGE to produce documents and respond to questions within 21 days.

The appeals court ruled that Musk and DOGE had “satisfied the stringent requirements for a stay” and showed that they are likely to prevail in their claim that the lower court must resolve their motion to dismiss before allowing discovery to proceed.

“In particular, petitioners have shown a likelihood of success on their argument that the district court was required to decide their motion to dismiss before allowing discovery,” the three-judge panel wrote in its ruling.

Following the appellate court ruling, Chutkan entered a minute order acknowledging the decision. She has canceled a status hearing previously scheduled for March 27.

The case, brought by New Mexico and a coalition of 12 Democratic-led states, challenges the legality of DOGE’s sweeping cost-cutting efforts, which have included the cancellation of federal grants and mass terminations of government employees from jobs identified by DOGE as unneeded.

The plaintiffs argued in their original complaint that Musk is effectively running DOGE without Senate confirmation, allegedly in violation of the Constitution’s Appointments Clause.

“Oblivious to the threat this poses to the nation, President Trump has delegated virtually unchecked authority to Mr. Musk without proper legal authorization from Congress and without meaningful supervision of his activities,” the plaintiffs allege. 

“As a result, he has transformed a minor position that was formerly responsible for managing government websites into a designated agent of chaos without limitation and in violation of the separation of powers.”

In a subsequent motion for a temporary restraining order against Musk and DOGE, the states further accused Musk of unlawfully exercising sweeping executive power without Senate confirmation, directing federal agencies to fire employees, cancel contracts, dismantle programs, and access sensitive government data.

In response, government lawyers urged the court to reject the emergency motion. They argued that the states had failed to show any imminent or irreparable harm, and said the restraining order sought was overly broad, legally unsupported, and disconnected from core constitutional claims made by the plaintiffs. Even if Musk were improperly appointed, they argue, sharing data with him or others at DOGE does not, by itself, constitute an illegal exercise of government power. Musk also is not empowered to act without the president’s approval, they said.

Chutkan partially sided with the Democrat-led states on March 12, ordering Musk, DOGE, and related entities to turn over documents about firing federal workers and altering government databases. She also required DOGE to identify everyone who has led or worked at the agency since President Donald Trump took office, and list all agencies where DOGE or Musk canceled contracts, cut grants, or terminated employees.

Trump and Musk have both said that DOGE has been assisting various agencies that have fired or offered buyouts to tens of thousands of federal workers since Trump returned to office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Musk, as a special government employee, has been tasked by Trump to lead DOGE to help fulfill his campaign pledge of reducing waste, streamlining federal operations, and cutting red tape.

The DOGE team has taken quick action to audit and pursue reforms across federal agencies. It recently reported $130 billion in savings through canceled grants, asset sales, workforce reductions, and terminated contracts and leases.

Critics of DOGE have argued that its activities raise security and oversight issues, with a number of lawsuits filed challenging its operations.

Musk recently revealed that the DOGE team has been receiving death threats on a daily basis.

“The DOGE team is getting death threats every single day,” Musk said during a March 24 White House cabinet meeting. “They’re just trying to do the right thing for the American taxpayer and for the American people.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 15:40

A Blueprint For Dismantling The Fed

A Blueprint For Dismantling The Fed

Authored by Alex Younger via The Mises Institute,

So much has been written about why we should end the Federal Reserve, and with the recent public demand for an audit, the message has finally reached the masses. Hopefully, if such an audit manifests, it will be the first step toward ultimately dismantling the Federal Reserve. (We should start with the extremely shady Bank Term Funding Program). But very little has been written about how to end the Federal Reserve, and that is what I wish to address here.

The How

You may read through my proposed plan and disagree with me on the details. But we must agree on this point: The key objective is to minimize any fluctuations in the current money supply as best we can. This can be done in a delicate manner that might even go unnoticed by the market, outlined in 5 steps:

1. Revoke All Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Privileges

The Federal Reserve should no longer have the ability to directly manipulate the money supply. Repeal the Federal Reserve Act.

2. Lock Down All Debt Assets on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

This refers to all assets on the balance sheet with a contractual expiration, such as US Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and other loan types. These assets make up roughly 99 percent of the Fed’s balance sheet. Rather than selling them, they should be allowed to expire naturally over the next 30 years—the longest duration of USTs and MBSs. During this period, the Fed may still collect interest payments on these assets and reinvest them to prevent removing those funds from the monetary base.

3. Gradually Sell Off Non-Expiring Assets

Any assets on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet that lack a contractual expiration should be sold off gradually over a period of 1 to 5 years. At present, I have been unable to find a reliable estimate of how much of this asset type exists, but I suspect it is relatively small—possibly less than a billion dollars.

4. The Federal Reserve Becomes a True Private Institution with No Special Legal Privileges

The Federal Reserve should operate as a fully private institution, stripped of any special legal banking privileges. Its only remaining advantages would be its established market position, its role in facilitating bank-to-bank lending, the interest payments from existing assets on its books, and its historical significance. This is far more than it deserves, but the primary objective must be to dismantle its power without triggering economic catastrophe.

5. If the Federal Reserve Cannot Function as a Private Bank

If the Federal Reserve fails to maintain its market position—which is likely, given that it has never truly faced competition—then major banks will need to determine among themselves how to facilitate interbank lending. They may assign central banking functions to other private institutions, operating within the limits of private banking law. Alternatively, the market may simply deem the Federal Reserve obsolete, allowing it to wither away naturally. Either outcome would be entirely acceptable.

The Balance Sheet Details

As of this writing, the Federal Reserve holds $6.8 trillion on its balance sheet. This follows a sharp 25 percent reduction from its previous $8.9 trillion over the past two years—a decrease of $2.1 trillion. In other words, the Fed initially printed $8.9 trillion and used this newly-created money to purchase assets in the market.

What has the Federal Reserve been buying? Primarily US debt. Our financial system functions like an ouroboros, with the Federal Reserve acting as a perpetual buyer of new government debt—funded by printed money. As of this writing, the Fed holds approximately $5 trillion of the national debt and artificially inflates domestic demand for it. Ending the Federal Reserve would severely restrict the government’s ability to create new debt, forcing a fundamental shift in government spending policy:

Fed Balance Sheet Composition

Currently, $4.2 trillion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet consists of US Treasury bonds (USTs), while another $2.2 trillion is made up of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Together, these two asset classes account for $6.4 trillion, or about 94 percent of the total balance sheet. The remaining 6 percent is a mix of various other debt securities, including corporate debt, federal agency debt, and other loan types, all of which also have contractual expiration dates.

Natural Expiration of Debt Assets

Let’s consider the potential consequences of abandoning current monetary policy and requiring the Federal Reserve to let its debt assets naturally roll off the balance sheet. Debt contracts have expiration dates, meaning that once they reach maturity, they expire worthless and can simply be removed from the balance sheet without active intervention. This approach would gradually shrink the Fed’s holdings over time, reducing its influence on the financial system without the immediate shock of mass asset sales.

Here is a projection of the balance sheet over the next 30 years under this plan:

Projection of Assets Naturally Expiring on Fed Balance Sheet.

The debt expirations are front-loaded, meaning the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet would experience a sharp initial decline before tapering off over time. In the first year, we would see a significant 10 percent reduction, which would gradually level out to a 1.7 percent decrease per year. On average, the decline would be around 3.1 percent annually.

This projection assumes the Fed has purchased debt with an evenly distributed range of expiration dates across different maturity groups, which is likely accurate. In reality, the actual decline would be somewhat more volatile due to variations in the composition of the Fed’s holdings.

Not Quantitative Tightening

The key advantage of this approach is that it differs from traditional quantitative tightening. No funds would be actively removed from banks’ reserves—those reserves would remain at their current levels. Instead, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet would shrink passively as debt assets naturally expire, avoiding the disruptive liquidity drain that comes with aggressive asset sales.

To fully understand this, a brief crash course in quantitative tightening (QT) is necessary. Admittedly, there is a certain genius to the way Federal Reserve monetary policy operates. When the Fed tightens, it sells assets from its balance sheet to primary dealers (large banks) on the open market. The Federal Reserve essentially functions as a “bank for big banks,” where major US banks store their reserves much like a savings account. These reserves not only remain at the Fed but also earn interest, just like a traditional savings account. This structure allows the Fed to influence liquidity in the financial system without directly impacting the day-to-day operations of commercial banks, making its monetary policy more indirect but highly effective.

When the Fed sells assets to primary dealers, it sells to banks that already have reserve accounts at the Fed. This means the money used to purchase these assets is already parked at the Federal Reserve. When the Fed either sells securities or allows them to mature without reinvesting, two things happen simultaneously: 1) the Fed’s assets decrease as the securities leave its balance sheet; 2) the bank’s reserve account at the Fed decreases by the same amount. These two changes cancel each other out, effectively removing that portion of the monetary base from circulation. This is how quantitative tightening (QT) functions—it contracts the money supply by destroying reserves, rather than directly pulling cash from the economy.

The key difference in my proposed approach is that the Fed would continue receiving interest payments on its remaining assets for the duration of their terms. The most realistic scenario is that these funds will be used to pay interest on reserves held by banks at the Fed, allowing normal banking operations to continue without disruption. However, unless the Fed finds an alternative revenue source, the interest on reserves rate can be expected to gradually decline over the next 30 years as assets roll off the balance sheet. This slow adjustment provides banks with ample time to determine how to manage their reserves in a post-Fed environment.

Inflationary vs. Deflationary Pressures

One likely outcome of this transition would be an increase in business investment by big banks. The interest on reserves paid by the Fed has historically discouraged banks from investing in the open market. From the bank’s perspective, why would I go make a risky investment into some startup, or some business which could hit rough waters and default, when I could just park my assets at the Fed and make a risk-free 4.4 percent? Basically, the Fed has been paying banks to not loan you money.

As the Fed’s ability to pay interest on reserves diminishes over time, banks would have a stronger incentive to deploy their capital elsewhere, likely fueling greater investment in businesses, loans, and other market-driven opportunities. This new pressure on banks to seek better investment opportunities within the first five years of this transition will create an inflationary counterbalance to the deflationary pressure that naturally comes with ending the Fed.

As banks shift their reserves into the market, increased lending and investment could stimulate economic activity, offsetting the contractionary effects of removing the Fed’s artificial demand for debt. This dynamic could help stabilize prices during the transition, preventing a sudden economic shock while still moving toward a more market-driven monetary system.

Conclusion

The ideal outcomes from this arrangement would be the following:

  • The Fed loses its extra-legal authority, operating solely as a private institution;

  • Direct central planning of interest rates ends, eliminating monetary supply manipulation;

  • Minimal fluctuation in the money supply, as bank reserves remain unaffected and the Fed continues receiving interest payments on its debt assets, preventing a liquidity drain;

  • Market stability, with little disruption to economic equilibrium;

  • Slight dollar appreciation, as the deflationary effects of ending the Fed are counterbalanced by banks investing their reserves;

  • No rush for banks to find alternative bank-to-bank lending solutions, ensuring a smooth transition;

  • No need to rewrite ACH payment systems, which currently rely on the Federal Reserve;

  • Greater urgency in reducing federal debt, as an appreciating currency increases the real debt burden;

  • A shift toward more prudent and productive financial behavior, as stronger purchasing power encourages saving and discourages reckless debt accumulation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 15:00

Judge Declines Trump Admin Request That She Recuse Herself From Perkins Coie Case

Judge Declines Trump Admin Request That She Recuse Herself From Perkins Coie Case

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge has declined a request by the Trump administration that she remove herself from overseeing a lawsuit challenging an executive action targeting Perkins Coie LLP, accusing the Justice Department of attacking her character in an effort to undermine the integrity of the judicial system.

U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell wrote in a March 26 ruling that a Trump administration filing seeking her recusal was “rife with innuendo” and that none of the claims it put forward “come close to meeting the standard for disqualification.”

“Though this adage is commonplace, and the tactic overused, it is called to mind by defendants’ pending motion to disqualify this Court: ‘When you can’t attack the message, attack the messenger,’” U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell wrote in a March 26 ruling.

President Donald Trump’s action issued on March 6 prevents law firm Perkins Coie from doing business with federal contractors and blocks its lawyers from accessing government officials.

Additionally, it suspends any active security clearances held by individuals at the firm, pending a review of whether such clearances are consistent with the national interest.

Perkins Coie was hired by Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee in 2016.

According to the presidential action issued by Trump, the law firm has engaged in “dishonest and dangerous activity” that has affected the United States “for decades.”

The firm sued the administration over the order in federal court in Washington on March 11, alleging Trump’s actions violated its rights under the U.S. Constitution.

Roughly a week after Trump’s executive action was first issued, Howell temporarily blocked the administration from enforcing much of it, finding the law firm was likely to win its lawsuit.

Last week, the Department of Justice (DOJ) asked for the case to be moved to another judge in Washington’s federal court, citing Howell’s public comments about the president and her connection with key aspects of the case.

“This Court has not kept its disdain for President Trump secret,” Chad Mizelle, acting associate attorney general at the DOJ, wrote in a motion seeking her disqualification. 

“It has voiced its thoughts loudly—both inside and outside the courtroom.”

Speaking inside the court, Mizelle also pointed to now-former special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of Trump, during which he said that Howell found “reason to believe that the former President would ‘flee from prosecution.’”

The judge also “pierced attorney-client privilege, ordering President Trump’s attorney to testify before a D.C. grand jury” investigating his alleged retention of classified documents in the South Florida case, he said.

Mizelle added that Howell also previously rejected Trump’s view that the indictments against individuals involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol were a “national injustice” and called his supporters “sore losers.”

In her 21-page ruling, Howell wrote that when the DOJ “engages in this rhetorical strategy of ad hominem attack, the stakes become much larger than only the reputation of the targeted federal judge.”

“This strategy is designed to impugn the integrity of the federal judicial system and blame any loss on the decision-maker rather than fallacies in the substantive legal arguments presented,” she added.

The judge said she welcomed the Trump administration’s opportunity “to set the record straight, because facts matter.”

“Every litigating party deserves a fair and impartial hearing to determine both what the material facts are and how the law best applies to those facts,” she wrote. 

“That fundamental promise, however, does not entitle any party—not even those with the power and prestige of the President of the United States or a federal agency—to demand adherence to their own version of the facts and preferred legal outcome.”

“The clear absence of any legitimate basis for disqualification requires denial” of the DOJ’s request that she recuse herself from the case, the judge said.

Howell is set to decide in the coming weeks whether to extend her block on Trump’s order against Perkins Coie.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Perkins Coie for comment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 14:25

Ugly, Tailing 7Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand In 3 Years

Ugly, Tailing 7Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand In 3 Years

Moments ago, the Treasury sold the week's final coupon auction and after a stellar stopping through 2Y sale, a mediocre, tailing 5Y, today's 7Y was the ugliest of the lot.

Stopping at a high yield of 4.233%, the auction yielded 0.4bps more than February and also tailed then When Issued 4.227% by 0.06bps; this was the first tail for the 7Y tenor since August 2024.

The bid to cover dropped to 2.534 from 2.638, the lowest since August 2024, and obviously below the six-auction average of 2.69.

But it was the internals there were downright atrocious, as Indirects were awarded only 61.2%, down from 66.1%, and the lowest since March 22! At the same time, Directs jumped to 26.1% (the most since, yes, March 22), which left just 12.7% to Dealers.

Overall, this was the ugliest 7Y auction in years, and while not as catastrophic as the legendary Feb 2021 auction which was, for all intents and purposes, failed, the taste left in investors' mouths after the dismal lack of foreign demand will reverberate for a long time, because it has been a while since we saw such ugly auctions on days when the market is melting down.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 13:28

Department Of Energy Further Postpones Biden-Era Home Appliance Rules

Department Of Energy Further Postpones Biden-Era Home Appliance Rules

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said this week that the Department of Energy (DOE) had further postponed the effective dates for three Biden-era home appliance mandates.

The mandates were previously postponed in February. The department has delayed “effective dates for three home appliance rules: Test Procedures for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps, Efficiency Standards for Walk-In Coolers and Freezers, and Efficiency Standards for Gas Instantaneous Water Heaters,” according to the DOE’s March 24 statement.

The department has also officially withdrawn four conservation standards that applied to ceiling fans, dehumidifiers, external power supplies, and electric motors.

The decision “marks a key step in lowering costs, enhancing performance, and expanding options for American consumers,” the department said.

The Biden-era rule on central air conditioners and heat pumps amended test procedures for these appliances, with manufacturers required to use the new test procedures on their products. The effective date of the rule was Feb. 6.

Regulations on coolers, freezers, and gas water heaters amended energy conservation standards for these appliances, with the updated rules initially set to be effective from Feb. 21, and regulations for gas water heaters initially to be effective from March 11.

At the time, the DOE, under the Biden administration, said that the updates “would result in significant conservation of energy, and are technologically feasible and economically justified.”

In 2023, consumer watchdog Alliance for Consumers calculated the cost of President Joe Biden’s regulations on appliances such as water heaters, air conditioners, gas stoves, and other devices. The watchdog found that these measures would cost the average American household more than $9,100.

In its decision to delay the effective dates of the three home appliance rules, the DOE said it acted in accordance with President Donald Trump’s Jan. 31 executive order “Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation.”

The presidential action aims to “alleviate unnecessary regulatory burdens” and prevent the federal regulation from imposing “massive costs on the lives of millions of Americans.”

Wright said that the DOE is taking “critical steps” to help American families prosper under the Trump administration.

“By removing burdensome regulations put in place by the Biden administration, we are returning freedom of choice to the American people, ensuring consumers can choose the home appliances that work best for their lives and budgets,” Wright said. “This power should not belong to the federal government.”

Tackling Appliance Rules

Republican lawmakers have taken action against the Biden administration’s policies targeting appliances.

In January, the House passed a resolution to repeal energy standards targeting consumer gas-fired instantaneous water heaters. Eleven lawmakers from the Democratic Party joined Republicans in voting for the resolution.

At the time, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said that the American people “made it clear they want lower costs and more choices, and we are keeping our promise to undo the damage of the last administration.”

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) supported the resolution, criticizing the new standards for gas water heaters, warning that the rules would push up costs and create “unnecessary challenges,” thus significantly affecting builders and homeowners.

“The push for a shift to more expensive condensing gas water heaters presents substantial hurdles for remodeling and replacement projects, especially in older homes,” the association said in January. “Furthermore, NAHB is concerned that this rule is part of a broader agenda to phase out natural gas appliances, ultimately limiting consumer choice and driving up utility costs.”

DOE also said in February that it was developing a new energy efficiency category for natural gas tankless water heaters.

“Creating a new category for these popular and low-cost water heaters exempts these products from the Biden–Harris Administration’s onerous rules and gives the American people the power to choose the best option for their homes and budgets,” the department said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 13:05

"Reducing Bureaucratic Sprawl": RFK Jr. Cuts 10,000 Jobs From Health & Human Services Department

"Reducing Bureaucratic Sprawl": RFK Jr. Cuts 10,000 Jobs From Health & Human Services Department

Update: Moments ago, the Department of Health and Human Services released its plan to "save taxpayers $1.8 billion per year through a reduction in workforce of about 10,000 full-time employees as part of this latest transformation."

HHS will "streamline the functions of the Department. Currently, the 28 divisions of the HHS contain many redundant units. The restructuring plan will consolidate them into 15 new divisions, including a new Administration for a Healthy America, or AHA, and will centralize core functions such as Human Resources, Information Technology, Procurement, External Affairs, and Policy. Regional offices will be reduced from 10 to 5," the agency wrote in the press release. 

The overhaul is focused on HHS's new priority: Ending America's epidemic of chronic illness by focusing on safe, wholesome food, clean water, and the elimination of environmental toxins. 

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy stated, "We aren't just reducing bureaucratic sprawl. We are realigning the organization with its core mission and our new priorities in reversing the chronic disease epidemic," adding, "This Department will do more – a lot more – at a lower cost to the taxpayer."

*   *   * 

The Wall Street Journal has obtained documents indicating that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is preparing to announce large job cuts to overhaul the nation's health agencies. The plan builds on broader cuts by the Trump administration and Elon Musk's DOGE to reduce the size of the bloated federal government that has plundered taxpayer monies for far too long.

Kennedy plans to cut as many as 10,000 employees from the department, adding to the 10,000 who have already left through voluntary severance offers since President Trump took office. 

Documents reviewed by WSJ indicate that, when combined with voluntary departures, the planned cuts would reduce the department's workforce by 25%—bringing it down to 62,000 federal health employees. The plan would also halve the number of regional offices from 10 to 5. 

WSJ provided more color on the cuts:

As part of the 10,000 workers to be let go, the Trump administration plans to cut: 3,500 full-time employees from the Food and Drug Administration—or about 19% of the agency's workforce 2,400 employees from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—or about 18% of its workforce 1,200 employees from the National Institutes of Health—or about 6% of its workforce 300 employees from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—or about 4% of its workforce.

More broadly, the Trump administration's cuts to the bloated federal government and unelected bureaucracy—often called the 'shadow government'—are beginning to filter through the jobs data (first here) with continuing jobless claims in Washington, D.C, now at their highest level since 2021 (now here).

Jobless claims continue to rise across Virginia, DC, and Maryland - an area also known as "Deep Tristate" - where federal workers live and play with free money from taxpayers... Now the party is over:

In addition to a softening labor market across the Deep Tristate, the D.C. housing market is being flooded with inventory (more MLS data here). 

Kennedy's HHS cuts, set to be announced later today, add to the mounting headwinds for the Deep Tristate, as cracks emerge in both the labor and housing markets. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 12:45

Waste Of The Day: Boeing Lacks "Trained And Experienced" Employees

Waste Of The Day: Boeing Lacks "Trained And Experienced" Employees

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Boeing, the engineering company behind the failed mission that left two astronauts stranded in space, received $6.4 billion in contracts from NASA between fiscal years 2021 and 2024, according to federal data reviewed by OpenTheBooks. Only CalTech, which manages NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, received more money.

Key facts: Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft experienced a thruster malfunction during its first manned flight last June. The ship was forced to return to Earth unmanned, leaving Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore stuck at the International Space Station.

NASA’s inspector general later released an audit of Boeing’s Exploration Upper Stage launch system — a project unrelated to Starliner, but one that sheds light on deeper issues within the company.

Open the Books

The audit found “quality control issues” with Boeing’s work attributed to “the lack of a sufficient number of trained and experienced aerospace workers at Boeing.”

The Defense Contract Management Agency issued 71 Corrective Action Requests to Boeing between 2021 and 2023, asking the company to fix its quality control problems. But the company was “nonresponsive in taking corrective actions,” the inspector general wrote.

The audit found the its part of the Artemis IV mission — which is supposed to take us back to the moon — is six years behind schedule and an estimated $1.8 billion over budget. It’s now expected to cost $2.8 billion by the time it is used in 2028.

The inspector general recommended that NASA work with Boeing to create a training program for the company’s employees and give Boeing “financial penalties” for not meeting quality control standards.

Boeing’s work on the launch system is documented online, but the public would have no way of finding it by checking USAspending.gov, which is supposed to catalog all federal contracts. The website lists $2.7 billion sent to Boeing for the Ares I project, which has not existed since 2010.

A NASA spokesperson said the money had been shifted to the space launcher system at the request of Congress.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com

Summary: The federal government would be wise to investigate companies’ quality control before awarding them billions of dollars worth of contracts, not years after the fact.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 11:45

States Work To Make Gold And Silver Alternative Currencies To US Dollar

States Work To Make Gold And Silver Alternative Currencies To US Dollar

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Those who seethe as their dollars lose value to inflation may be pleased to know that many states are now working to pass laws that would allow gold and silver to be used—not only for savings and investment but as everyday currency for purchases and payments as well.

Yee Hui Lau/Shutterstock

The state of Utah took a major step last week toward the use of gold and silver as transactional currencies, allowing their use for state payments to vendors. A bill, sponsored by state Rep. Ken Ivory, passed the Utah state legislature on March 18 and is now awaiting the signature of Gov. Spencer Cox. 

If signed, this bill would make Utah the first state in America to pass a “transactional gold” bill.

“This is about making sure that people have choices,” Ivory told The Epoch Times. “It’s important that we give people a choice in how they store and transact their earnings and their savings.”

For Utah residents, the bill also addressed issues of local autonomy and preservation of savings, he said.

“We express our liberty and our work and our property in something called money, but where the dollar used to be money, now it’s just currency,” he said. “I think people want to see their earnings and property be reflected in real money again.

Money functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. But the dollar has struggled to hold its value since it was delinked from gold.

One of the key elements of precious metals is the ability to hopefully retain purchasing power of your money, and so if the dollar is being eroded by inflation, precious metals have typically been able to preserve purchasing power better than the fiat currency,” Utah state treasurer Marlo Oaks told The Epoch Times.

A Growing Movement to Use Gold as Money

State lawmakers believe they are on firm legal footing in establishing an alternative legal tender. While the U.S. Constitution gives the federal government the exclusive right to “coin money,” it also permits states to make “gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts.”

That’s one of the key elements of why this is even possible ... because it’s called out in the Constitution,” Oaks said. 

Utah is far from alone in this effort. Many other states are also working to accept gold as currency. 

According to Kevin Freeman, author of “Pirate Money” and a longstanding advocate for using gold as legal tender, the movement by states to legislate transactional gold has gained significant traction over the past several years.

Now, 25 states have looked at this, and we’re getting even some traditionally blue states that are demonstrating interest,” Freeman told The Epoch Times. “We’ve picked up bipartisan support, and so my optimism is quite high.”

In February, legislators in Mississippi introduced a bill, HB 1064, to make gold and silver legal tender in the state. If the bill passes, it would allow citizens to use gold or silver coins to settle debts and for private transactions.

In December 2024, Missouri introduced the “Constitutional Money Act,” which among other things would recognize gold and silver as legal tender. 

States shaded in gold are actively considering legislation in favor of using gold as legal tender (Source: Constitutional Currency, Kevin Freeman).

Other states working to introduce or pass similar legislation include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming, according to an organization called Constitutional Currency, which is affiliated with Freeman’s work.

History on Their Side

Historically, gold functioned as money throughout the United States until the federal government intervened to force the transition to what ultimately became a “fiat” currency. The word “fiat” in Latin means “let it be done” in respect of decrees; regarding currencies it has come to mean that they are worth what the issuing government says they are worth, to the extent that people have confidence in the government that issues it.

According to a 2024 Federal Reserve report by Maria Hasenstab, until the 1930s, American banks had to keep gold reserves in their vaults equal to a designated percentage of the money they issued.

When the Great Depression hit in 1929, “people hoarded gold instead of depositing it in banks, which created an international gold shortage,” Hasenstab writes. “Countries around the world basically ran out of supply and were forced off the gold standard.”

A shortage of money caused prices to decline in the 1930s, causing the crisis to escalate. Farmers, for example, could no longer earn enough for their crops to repay bank loans, leading to defaults and the failure of many local banks. 

At the time, the Federal Reserve maintained a tight money supply, restricting credit and causing the U.S. economy to contract further. 

One of the first major efforts to transition Americans away from the use of gold as money occurred in 1933, when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt issued an executive order to seize privately-held gold, forcing Americans to hand over their gold coins, bullion, and gold certificates. Those who refused faced up to ten years in prison or a fine of $10,000, or both. 

This ended the use of gold for domestic transactions in the United States. 

Thereafter, the value of U.S. paper currency was linked to gold and could theoretically be exchanged into gold for international transactions until 1971, when President Richard Nixon ended this convertibility, leaving the dollar as a purely “fiat” currency.

Dollars Not Holding Value

However, Americans have experienced a dramatic erosion in the value of their money under the fiat currency system. Since Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard in 1971, the U.S. dollar suffered a cumulative inflation of 688 percent. An item you could have purchased for $1 in 1971 costs $7.88 today, according to the U.S. Inflation calculator.

By contrast, gold, which was worth about $40 an ounce in 1971, is trading in the range of $3,000 per ounce today. 

In 1971, you could buy a house for $20,000 in Salt Lake, or 563 ounces of gold,” Ivory said. “Today, the average house is pushing $600,000, but with 563 ounces of gold you can buy more than three houses.

“Houses aren’t more expensive; they’re less expensive than ever on a fixed standard,” he said. “But our dollar has become this illusory standard where we’ve got unelected people deciding what the inflation rate is, which means how much of our money they’re going to take every year.”

During the past four years, Americans saw the value of their money fall by more than 20 percent, due to trillions of dollars in government spending that expanded the supply of money at a faster rate than the production of goods and services, driving up prices. And while inflation has come down from a high of more than 9 percent per year in 2022, it continues to hover around 3 percent today. 

A number of other issues regarding the dollar, including federal debt and spending, could also erode people’s confidence that it can maintain its value as a fiat currency.

“Certainly as part of our working group, there was a lot of discussion around the impact of inflation, the impact of the amount of debt we have, and the erosion, potentially, of the reserve status of the dollar,” Oaks said. “With BRICS and other foreign entities trying to move away from the dollar, you’ve seen central banks accumulate physical gold.”

The working group that produced Utah’s legislation included former Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles and former Citibank and American Express CFO Gary Crittenden.

Spending Gold with a Debit Card

According to Freeman, one thing that is necessary for gold to become a commonly used transactional currency is a proliferation of companies like Glint, which is based in the United Kingdom.

Glint holds gold deposits and issues debit cards that allow depositors to spend their gold deposits in any amount and in multiple currencies. The company states on its website that it “offers an alternative to fiat currencies enabling our clients to buy, save, and spend allocated gold with the flexibility of Mastercard.”

It’s really the result of technological advancements that enable fractional gold transactions as easy as using a debit card,” Oaks said. “The value [of gold deposits] is tracked for you, and you can transact in the economy with the card technology that we have.”

While Freeman hopes that gold and silver will one day be widely available as a transactional currency, he expects this will be an alternative to, rather than a replacement for, the U.S. dollar.

“I don’t see it necessarily replacing the American dollar, unless the dollar were to fail,” he said. 

“But money has changed a lot,” he said. “Now, we have Tap to Pay and Venmo and Bitcoin and PayPal; this is just another way to pay.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 11:10

Rutgers University Vs The Libertarian Institute: Capitalism And Socialism

Rutgers University Vs The Libertarian Institute: Capitalism And Socialism

Private ownership. Individualism. Property rights. Wealth creation.

Equity. Welfare. Eliminating class disparities. To each according to his need…

Which way western man?

Visit the ZeroHedge homepage tonight at 7pm ET for our live Capitalism vs Socialism Debate, with socialist Rutgers Professor Ben Burgis facing off against capitalist Editor of the Libertarian Institute Keith Knight. The debate will be moderated by Erik Townsend, host of the MacroVoices podcast.

While it is clear where most ZH readers fall on the issue, best understand those who seek to control you.

As a primer for the debate, below are snapshots into each participants’ positions.

Socialist

No owning beaches, no owning property, and… well maybe there's common ground on the last one.

Capitalist (ancap)

This sum it up the sentiment well…

We’ll see you tonight at 7pm ET.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 10:55

Trump Says Government Likely Won't Be Using Signal After The Atlantic Fallout

Trump Says Government Likely Won't Be Using Signal After The Atlantic Fallout

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said on March 25 that government officials likely will not be using the Signal messaging app after The Atlantic magazine’s editor-in-chief was inadvertently included in a group chat with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and national security adviser Mike Waltz.

When asked about the Signal chat during remarks at the White House on March 25, Trump said: “A lot of times you find out defects by exactly things like that, but I don’t think it’s something we’re looking forward to using again.

We may be forced to use it. You may be in a situation where you need speed as opposed to gross safety, and you may be forced to use it, but generally speaking, I think we probably won’t be using it very much.”

The fallout came after Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, alleged that he saw a discussion between Hegseth and other officials take place in a group chat he was added to in the Signal messaging app hours before strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen ordered by Trump earlier this month.

The National Security Council has since said the text chain Goldberg reported “appears to be authentic” and that it is looking into how a journalist’s number was added to the chain.

Hegseth spoke to reporters in Hawaii on March 24 and disputed Goldberg’s account, insisting that no war plans were texted in the chat. He also raised questions about Goldberg’s credibility. Goldberg, who published an article in The Atlantic about the group chat, later told MSNBC that his article was based on what he saw in the Signal chat. He accused Hegseth of trying to deflect from the allegations.

Signal uses end-to-end encryption for its messaging and calling services, which prevents any third party from viewing conversation content or listening in on calls. It is considered a popular app for direct messaging, group chats, phone calls, and video calls.

When asked about the use of the chat app, Trump said he “wasn’t involved” but only “heard about it.”

“I hear it’s used by a lot of groups,” he said. “It’s used by the media a lot. It’s used by a lot of the military and, I think, successfully, but sometimes somebody can get onto those things.

That’s one of the prices you pay when you’re not sitting in the Situation Room with no phones on, which is always the best, frankly ... the best is to be there.

Earlier in the day, Trump told NBC News that Waltz or a member of his staff had added Goldberg to the chat but defended his national security adviser. He echoed those comments during his remarks in the White House on March 25 and said Waltz does not need to apologize. He suggested that news outlets’ response to the reports has been overblown.

They’ve made a big deal out of this because we’ve had two perfect months,” Trump said, pivoting to the economy and policies he has initiated since taking office in January. “We’re bringing in business; we have another one announced tomorrow.”

After the recent reports, the president of Signal defended the app, although she did not directly address The Atlantic article.

“Signal is the gold standard in private comms,” Signal President Meredith Whittaker wrote in a post on social media platform X in response to a report that compared Signal to WhatsApp. She attempted to differentiate Signal from WhatsApp, which is owned by Meta Platforms.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 10:35

Europe Rules Out Easing Of Russian Sanctions, Killing Ceasefire Hopes

Europe Rules Out Easing Of Russian Sanctions, Killing Ceasefire Hopes

French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting nations in Paris who make up a 'coalition of the willing' in their continued support to Ukraine, and on Thursday he has announced that sanctions on Russia will not be lifted, as unanimously agreed to among participants.

The twenty-seven heads of mostly European states and governments represented there further agreed there will be no easing of sanctions in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire.

AFP/Getty Images

A new Black Sea peace initiative was unveiled by Washington at the Riyadh talks, and agreed to by both warring parties as of Wednesday, and would see Russian food and agricultural sanctions lifted, as well as the reconnection of Russian agricultural banks to the international Swift payment system.

The Wall Street Journal's Yaroslav Trofimov points out that "The lifting of sanctions on banking, as demanded by Russia, cannot be done without European say so. Now what?"

Russia has said the naval ceasefire would only come into force after Washington lifts sanctions against its food and fertilizer trade. The energy and Black Sea ceasefires were first announced Tuesday.

There was already severe disagreement with Ukraine concerning its scope and implementation, but Moscow said it was willing to play ball. "In accordance with the agreement between the presidents of Russia and the United States, both sides have committed to implementing the Black Sea initiative," a Kremlin statement had announced, affirming the US-backed agreement.

"This initiative includes guaranteeing safe navigation in the Black Sea, refraining from the use of force, and prohibiting the use of commercial vessels for military purposes, while establishing appropriate control measures through inspections of such vessels."

But Ukraine on the same day had already accused Moscow of "lying" about the terms of the agreement: The Ukrainian defense ministry said the movement of Russian warships outside the "eastern part of the Black Sea" would be treated as a violation of the agreement, according to regional media.

Thus it seems both Kiev and Europe are setting up the Trump-backed partial ceasefire to fail before it even gets off the ground.

As for Macron, he said Thursday that while he welcomes the role of Presdient Trump in overseeing the peace talks, the stance of the 'coalition of the willing' remains clear. "fundamentally, to win peace, and to do this, we must place Ukraine in the best possible position to negotiate and ensure that the peace that will be negotiated will be solid and lasting," he said.

He charged that it remains Russia who is unwilling to abide by terms of the proposed ceasefires, and has been adding unacceptable conditions. The UK's Starmer too said in Paris that "There was absolute clarity that Russia is trying to delay [peace], is playing games, and we have to be absolutely clear about that."

The British prime minister also hailed "complete clarity that now is not the time for lifting of sanctions." He went so far to say "Quite the contrary, what we discussed is how we can increase sanctions to support the US initiative, to bring Russia to the table through further pressure from this group of countries."

"What came out was strong from the meeting was so many countries standing, as they’ve stood for over three years now, with Ukraine in this crucial moment for as long as it takes for" he said. This certainly pushes peace back further on the horizon - but at this point Moscow is probably OK with that, as its forces gobble up more territory. The longer this drags on, the worse the ground reality gets for the Ukrainian side.

*  *  *

Buy any 2 bags of coffee and receive a free ZeroHedge Tumbler!

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 10:15

Final, And Completely Meaningless, Q4 GDP Print Revised Fractionally Higher

Final, And Completely Meaningless, Q4 GDP Print Revised Fractionally Higher

While it is as stale as 3 month old milk, and therefor completely useless especially ahead of tomorrow's personal income/core PCE report, moments ago the BLS reported its 2nd revision to Q4 GDP which was revised up to 2.4% compared to the second est. of 2.3%, and above the median consensus of 2.3% (+2.2% to +2.6%) from 55 economists. The final Q4 print was down from 3.1% in Q3. The increase, however, wasn't due to stronger consumption (this declined from 4.2% to 4.0%, below the 4.2% estimate) but mostly due to trade and downward revised imports. Additionally, inflation prints were more muted, with 4Q GDP price index rising 2.3% vs second est. of +2.4%, and the 4Q core PCE q/q rising 2.6%, also below the second est. of +2.7%.

According to the BEA, the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

As shown in the chart below, GDP was revised up 0.1% point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports.

Specifically, here is the breakdown of the 2.4% print by component:

  • Personal Consumption: 2.70%
  • Fixed Investment: -0.2%
  • Change in private inventories: -0.84%
  • Exports: -0.01%
  • Imports: 0.27%
  • Government consumption: 0.52%

For a grand total of 2.440%

Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned down.

From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected an increase of 2.3 percent in real value added for private goods-producing industries, an increase of 2.4 percent for private services-producing industries, and an increase of 2.7 percent for government.

Real gross output increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, reflecting an increase of 0.3 percent for private goods-producing industries, an increase of 2.0 percent for private services-producing industries, and an increase of 3.1 percent for government.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.4 percent, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.

Bottom line: this was just another meaningless print, not just because it is beyond stale now - when the entire market looks ahead to the consequences of trade war - but also because a much more updated version of the core PCE data will come in exactly 24 hours.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 08:55

Is DOGE Winning? Continuing Jobless Claims In DC Highest Since 2021

Is DOGE Winning? Continuing Jobless Claims In DC Highest Since 2021

Headline initial jobless claims rose by 224k last week - a very boring, very steady, very non-recessionary signal that the labor market is just fine despite all the partisan panic in 'soft' data surveys...

Michigan and Texas saw the biggest decline in jobless claims last week, while Oregon and Kentucky saw the biggest increase...

Nationwide continuing jobless claims continue to oscillate around 1.9 million Americans...

Of course, all eyes are on DC and the impact of DOGE. While initial jobless claims are slowing in the region (as a multitude of lawsuits stall the process of draining the swamp)...

...we note that continuing jobless claims in DC are now at their highest since 2021...

And across the Deep Tristate, jobless claims continue to rise...

So, is DOGE winning?

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 08:42

Global Markets Slide Spooked By Trump Auto Tariffs

Global Markets Slide Spooked By Trump Auto Tariffs

US stock futures faded earlier gains, but were also off session lows after a tariff-driven selloff in equities on Wednesday which hit the Mag7 names. Futures on the S&P 500 are flat after Trump announced 25% uniform tariffs on auto imports, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% amid a reversal of the Monday price action as investors seem to be back to the recession playbook ahead of April 2 announcement. Mag 7, Cyclicals and High Short Interest are among the worst performing baskets, while Defensives outperformed. AI and data center names faced a slew of negative catalysts so far this week, including NVDA’s China environmental curbs, sell-side report on MSFT lease cancellation, BABA’s comments earlier this week: NVDA-5.7%; JPM's Data Center basket -3.0%. Commodities are higher led by oil and base metals. Outside the US, China ADRs outperformed US domestics with KWEB up 54bps today as China PBOC adviser promised (once again) that China will ramp up stimulus if growth falters.

In premarket trading, shares of US automakers and auto-parts suppliers dropped with peers in Europe also declining following Trump’s tariff announcement. Gamestop fell as the company said it plans to offer convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin. Nvidia slips, leading Mag7 declines and extending losses into a third straight session amid growing concerns over the outlook for spending on AI (Alphabet -0.3%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.1%, Meta -0.5%, Nvidia -1.7% and Tesla +0.5%). Automaker stocks fall after President Donald Trump hit auto imports with a 25% tariff starting next week. Analysts say Ford and General Motors are set to see the biggest impact, while Stellantis and Tesla are in a better position (General Motors -6%, Ford -0.7%, Stellantis’s US-listed shares -1.6%; Auto-parts firms: Autoliv -3%, Magna -1.8, BorgWarner -0.7%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • 3D Systems (DDD) falls 5% after the 3D-printing company issued annual forecasts for revenue and adjusted gross margin that trailed Wall Street expectations.
  • AMD (AMD) slips 3% after Jefferies downgraded the chipmaker to hold, with analysts citing limited traction in artificial intelligence among other negatives.
  • Cava Group (CAVA) climbs 2% as the company will replace Altair Engineering Inc. in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on March 31.
  • Coursera (COUR) falls 2.2% after Bank of America resumed coverage of the online educational firm with an underperform rating, citing a “muted” 2025 revenue growth outlook.
  • GameStop (GME) drops 6% as the company seeks to sell $1.3 billion of convertible bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases as it embraces a strategy that was developed by the cryptocurrency advocate Michael Saylor.
  • Jefferies (JEF) slips 5% after fiscal first-quarter earnings declined amid a drop in investment-banking and capital-markets revenue, with activity hurt by uncertainty around US policy and geopolitics.
  • MicroVision (MVIS) falls 5% after the electronics components company reported fourth-quarter revenue that trailed Wall Street projections and a wider-than-anticipated loss.
  • Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) gains 6% after the retailer provided a 1Q forecast for adj. Ebitda that topped expectations and said the company expects double-digit improvement in the metric this year.
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) climbs about 1% after the financial services platform introduced several new products at a Wednesday event, including Robinhood Strategies, Robinhood Banking and Robinhood Cortex.
  • Soleno (SLNO) jumps 36% after the biotech won US FDA approval for its Vykat extended-release tablets for the treatment of a condition where sufferers have a sense of being hungry all the time.
  • Verint (VRNT) drops 12% after the customer-service software firm reported adjusted revenue and profits for the fourth quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

Worries over President Donald Trump’s tariffs hit markets again on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 halting a three-day win streak to close down 1.1%. Trump implemented a 25% levy on auto imports, while threatening further duties on the EU and Canada. The S&P 500 fell 10% between February and March over concern that harsher tariffs will lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation. The index then staged a mild recovery since hitting a low on March 13, but now all eyes are on the so-called reciprocal tariffs, with details due on April 2, the so-called "Liberation Day."

“Tariffs are front and center on people’s minds,” said Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “We all know that tariffs are stagflationary and markets have been trying to price that to different extents. What we don’t know yet is what’s the ultimate lasting impact.”

The tariff drama is also casting doubt over European equities’ recent outperformance against US peers. Pictet’s Sai has downgraded his view on Europe, citing an inevitable hit to economic growth and earnings. Over at BlackRock Investment Institute, managers expect US stocks to soon regain their edge. 

“We have been overweight global equities over fixed income for many, many quarters – even as valuations looked increasingly stretched. But for the first time in years, we find ourselves genuinely worried about risk assets,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman for research at Barclays. “Cash allocations should be higher until policy clarity stages at least a mild comeback.”

Technology stocks have come under heavier pressure in recent sessions, as investors question how much longer will the artificial intelligence boom cycle last. Such anxiety resurfaced on Wednesday after a team of TD Cowen analysts said Microsoft Corp. has walked away from new data center projects in the US and Europe.

European stocks also fell as the US pushed ahead with harsh tariffs on automakers and threatened more sweeping trade levies, reinforcing investor concern about the hit to global economic growth. The Stoxx 600 slid 0.5%. Stellantis NV, which makes the Jeep Compass SUV in Mexico, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG fell about 3%. Traders also sold US auto shares, with General Motors Co. tumbling 6% in pre-market trading. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

  • Next shares rise as much as 9% after the UK fashion retailer said it’s made a stronger-than-expected start to the new year and boosted its profit guidance.
  • Umicore shares rise as much as 11% after the materials technology company outlined ambitious targets for 2028, with its earnings goal coming in above analyst expectations.
  • Coor shares gain as much as 6.1% after the Swedish facility services firm’s price target was raised to SEK52 from SEK48 at DNB.
  • Sofina advances as much as 3.3% after releasing its full-year results, with KBC Securities subsequently boosting its price target and saying this is the year in which the investment company “bounces back.”
  • European auto stocks fall after President Donald Trump announced a “permanent” 25% tariff on any car not produced in the US.
  • UBS shares fall as much as 5.6% as Bank of America downgrades the lender to underperform, saying the lack of clarity on regulation is likely to drag on for months.
  • Air France-KLM, EasyJet shares fall as Deutsche Bank downgrades the stocks. The bank cuts earnings forecasts for firms across Europe’s transport sector, noting near-term downside risks to GDP for the US and Europe.
  • MFE shares dropped as much as 7.2% in Milan, before paring declines, after the company owned by Italy’s Berlusconi family launched a tender offer on ProSiebenSat.1 Media in a bid to tighten its grip over the German entertainment company.
  • Trigano shares drop as much as 15%, the most since 2021, after the maker of motorhomes and leisure vehicles reported a steeper fall in quarterly revenue than anticipated.
  • eDreams falls as much as 18% after a shareholder offloaded shares in the firm at a discount to yesterday’s close.
  • Kontron shares dive as much as 6.2%, the most in over two months, after the German IT firm experienced a more challenging fourth-quarter than anticipated, according to analysts.

Asian equities edged lower as President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs and threat of more levies on Europe and Canada weighed on sentiment. Chinese shares advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6% before paring the loss, with benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan underperforming. Toyota Motor slumped following Trump’s decision to slap 25% tariffs on all cars that aren’t manufactured in the US. TSMC was the biggest drag on the gauge after a report that China’s energy rules for advanced chips could dent Nvidia’s sales. Asian equities have been range-bound recently as traders brace for Trump’s renewed tariff offensive to land on April 2. For the month, the MSCI Asia benchmark has gained nearly 3% and is headed for its best monthly performance since September. Benchmarks on Chinese and Hong Kong stocks rallied before ending the day with modest gains of around 0.3%. Optimism over China’s AI breakthrough and supportive macro policy has helped the market beat peers this year. 

In FX, the dollar slipped as investors weighed the possibility that President Trump’s latest tariffs could limit the country’s growth potential, although the realty is that the tariffs will lead to a recession elsewhere much faster. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, reversing the previous day’s 0.3% gain. JPY and CAD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, while GBP and NZD are outperforming. Trump “could be recognizing that his trade policies might be having a ricocheting effect on the US consumers and business owners,” said Fiona Lim, a senior strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore. “That makes US dollar gains susceptible to reversal." USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 150.97, outperforming as the Trump’s latest announcement to slap a 25% tax on Japanese auto imports hit home the prospect that the Japanese economy will suffer from tariffs, keeping the Bank of Japan cautious on raising interest rates. Earlier, the Norwegian krone recovered losses versus the euro after Norges Bank delayed a cut in borrowing costs until later this year as inflation picked up. Elsewhere in Asia, Indian stocks rose ahead of the expiry of monthly derivative contracts. The Nifty 50 Index is on pace for its biggest monthly advance since at least June 2024. 

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 4bps to 4.39% after St Louis Fed President Musalem stuck to the central bank’s position that it is in no hurry to keep cutting rates, while voicing concerns that trade levies will fan inflation. Musalem said it’s not clear the impact of tariffs will prove temporary, and cautioned that secondary effects could prompt officials to hold interest rates steady for longer. Euro-area bond yields slipped as expectations grew that the central bank will cut interest rates to cushion the fallout from trade-related shocks; German 10-year yields have nearly erased their drop and are at 2.78%. UK bonds slumped across the curve, underperforming US Treasuries and German bunds, amid lingering concerns over the government’s fiscal position. UK 10-year yields are up 7 basis points to 4.80%, and at the highest since January. Focal points of US session include $44 billion 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time and economic data slate including weekly jobless claims and final 4Q GDP revision. 

In commodities, WTI crude is trading within Wednesday’s range, falling 0.1% to around $69.56. Spot gold is up roughly $35 to near $3,055/oz.  Gold has been benefiting from haven demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ramped up its forecast to $3,300 an ounce by year-end, the latest in a series of banks to up their prediction. Bitcoin has risen to above $87,000. 

The US economic calendar includes 4Q GDP revision, February wholesale inventories, and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), February pending home sales (10am) and March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin and Collins (both 4:30pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,756.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 544.30
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 188.48
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 588.03
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 37,799.97
  • Topix little changed at 2,815.47
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 23,578.80
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,373.75
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 77,708.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,969.04
  • Kospi down 1.4% to 2,607.15
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.75%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0765
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $73.51/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $3,034.94
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 104.49

Top Overnight News

  • President Trump posted on Truth "If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!"
  • President Trump announced the US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber. Trump stated auto tariffs are going into effect on April 2nd and will start being collected on April 3rd, as well as noted that he will have a news conference on April 2nd which is the real Liberation Day. Furthermore, reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd will be on all tariffs but they will be lenient and in many cases, the tariffs will be less than the tariff charged on the US.
  • President Trump said there will be some form of a deal on TikTok and if the deal is not finished, it will be extended. Trump said there are numerous ways to buy TikTok and there is a lot of interest in TikTok, while he added that China has to play a role and he may give China a little reduction in tariffs to get it done
  • China reject Trump's offer of tariff waivers in exchange for TikTok deal, according to AFP
  • OpenAI is said to be close to a SoftBank-led $40 billion funding deal that would double its valuation to $300 billion. The AI developer’s funding round would be the largest of all time. BBG
  • US President Trump effectively cut 10% of funding for the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security which is the key agency in the US-China tech race: BBG
  • The Trump administration’s deep cuts to the federal workforce and research funding threaten to erode the quality and credibility of “gold standard” US statistics, economists have warned. US data, from the jobs report to inflation indices, can swing the Street’s $105tn stock and bond markets in milliseconds, and underpin policies that influence the trajectory of the world’s biggest economy. FT
  • Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang on Thursday pledged stronger policy support for the world's No.2 economy, which he said had started 2025 well and was on track to hit this year's growth target, buoyed by advancements in AI and other technologies. RTRS
  • Chinese financial authorities have told some companies and advisers that they can begin the process of launching mainland initial public offerings once more, in an early sign of a rebound in listings in the world’s second largest economy. Authorities have informed groups in the tech, advanced manufacturing, and consumer sectors in the past few weeks that they can file IPO paperwork. FT
  • China may inject up to $260 billion of liquidity into developers this year, Bloomberg Economics said. Meanwhile the biggest banks are said to be accelerating write-offs of soured property loans to clean up their balance sheets. BBG
  • Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba said he won’t rule out taking countermeasures against the 25% tariff on US car imports. The new levies greatly reduce the likelihood of the BOJ raising rates on May 1, central bank watchers said. BBG
  • Ukraine is reviewing a economic partnership proposal from the US that may be signed as soon as next week, Scott Bessent told Fox. European leaders are meeting in Paris today to try to carve a role for themselves in the US-led ceasefire talks. BBG
  • Donald Trump said he’d impose tariffs “far larger than currently planned” on Canada and the EU if they work together against the US. Earlier, he announced a 25% levy on all car imports, effective next week. Reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on all nations, Trump added, though rates may be lower than expected. Trump also said he’d consider lowering levies on China to secure a TikTok deal. BBG
  • Copper traders are racing against time to ship the metal to the US before tariffs hit in weeks — not months. They risk losses on shipping costs and that may wipe out profits for those that locked in the spread between Comex and LME prices. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

  • White House official said Commerce Secretary Lutnick informed President Trump that national security concerns raised in the earlier autos probe remain and may have escalated. The official stated the 25% tariff applies to autos and auto parts, in addition to any other duties or fees, while the new 25% tariff will be added to the existing 25% tariff on light trucks and cars coming to the US under USMCA will be tariffed according to their foreign part content. Furthermore, the official stated that tariffs take effect after midnight on April 3rd and it was also reported that Trump's autos proclamation provides a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports until May 3rd.
  • Canadian PM Carney said Trump's tariff announcement is a direct attack on Canadian workers and they will defend their country, while he will convene a high-level meeting on Thursday to discuss trade options and noted that tariffs will hurt Canada but the country will emerge stronger. Furthermore, he said if retaliatory tariffs are appropriate, Canada will take steps in its own interest and that Ottawa will react soon in which it can introduce retaliatory tariffs, while he is sure he will speak to Trump soon.
  • Ontario's Premier said he spoke to PM Carney and they agreed Canada needs to stand firm, strong and united, while he fully supports the government preparing retaliatory tariffs to show that Canada will never back down.
  • Unifor said regarding US auto tariffs that President Trump fails to understand the chaos and damages tariffs will inflict on workers and consumers in both Canada and the US.
  • Mexico's Foreign Minister held a call with US Deputy Secretary of State Landau in which they talked about security, migration and commerce, while they agreed to exchange information regularly and to schedule a face-to-face meeting in the near future, according to Mexico's Exterior Ministry
  • European Commission President Von der Leyen said she deeply regrets the US decision to impose tariffs on European automotive exports, while the European Commission will assess the announcement along with other measures the US is expected to unveil in the coming days and the EU will continue to seek negotiated solutions while safeguarding its economic interests.
  • Japanese PM Ishiba said various options are on the table for consideration regarding US auto tariffs and need to think about the appropriate response. Ishiba added that Japan is making the largest investment in the US and questions whether it makes sense to apply higher auto tariffs equally to all countries, which is a point it has made and will continue to make to the US.
  • China's ambassador to the US said using fentanyl as an excuse to raise taxes for no reason will only turn another point of cooperation into a point of friction, while the ambassador added that the development of China-US relations has reached a new and important juncture and hopes the US will work with China in the same direction.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with cautiousness seen after Trump's latest tariff salvo in which he announced the US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars made outside of the US effective on April 2nd and reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are also set for next week but stated they will be lenient, and in many cases, tariffs will be less than the tariffs charged on the US. ASX 200 declined with the index dragged lower by underperformance in tech, real estate and financials but with further downside stemmed by resilience in utilities and the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 slipped back beneath the 38,000 level with automakers among the worst hit following Trump's 25% auto  tariff announcement. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with outperformance in Hong Kong amid a slew of earnings releases and after US President Trump also suggested he may give China a little reduction in tariffs to get a TikTok deal done, while China's Vice Premier vowed to push forward reforms to help high-quality economic growth in a speech at the Boao Forum.

Top Asian News

  • China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said at the Boao Forum that there is a significant rise in uncertainties in the world and that China will resolutely oppose protectionism, as well as promote globalisation and safeguard free trade. Ding said China's economy has had a good start this year and the improving trend in China's economy has become more consolidated, while he is confident in China achieving its growth target and contributing to Asia and world growth. Furthermore, he said they will push forward key reforms to help high-quality economic growth, promote the development of private firms and make greater efforts to promote the healthy development of the property and stock market.
  • Chinese FX Regulator Deputy Head says will resolutely prevent overshooting risks in CNY exchange rates; will keep CNY exchange rate basically stable.

European bourses were primed for a softer open with losses accelerating modestly thereafter given the latest US tariff rhetoric, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Auto names lag given the focus of Trump's commentary with marked pressure in names across the board though they are off lows. H3C says NVIDIA (NVDA) H20 chip stocks are nearly depleted, new shipments are due Mid April, according to a client notice; H3C will distribute the chips based on profit margins. Microsoft (MSFT) mulls developing own high-end generative AI, according to Nikkei citing Microsoft CEO Nadella; CEO added that having its proprietary platform will make it easier to provide services optimised for its business software.

Top European News

 

  • ECB's Kazaks says we can probably keep cutting rates if the baseline holds, adds uncertainty is really high and geopolitics is the main cause.
  • ECB's Wunsch says the ECB is facing a difficult balancing act as tariffs would be bad for the economy and inflationary, via CNBC; a pause should be on the table in April. Unclear what the impact of the recent German fiscal announcement will be. Inflation risks might be on the upside.
  • ECB's Villeroy says France needs to bring the deficit back to the 3% mark Earlier: French 2024 budget deficit at 5.8% of GDP vs gov't exp. 6.0% (5.4% in 2023), via INSEE.
  • UK Chancellor says UK is in “intense negotiations” with the US on all tariffs and “working on” exempting the UK because “we don't run a surplus”, via BBC.

FX

  • DXY in the red after gaining on Wednesday, currently posting a slightly mixed performance against peers. DXY pivoting the 104.50 mark and awaiting tariff developments alongside a handful of other drivers.
  • EUR is modestly firmer but off a 1.0787 high against the USD, yet to make its way back onto a 1.08 handle and approach yesterday's peak @ 1.0803. To the downside, attention is on the 200DMA @ 1.0729.
  • Cable is back above the 1.29 handle with the recovery from Wednesday's pressure a tentative one and we are still shy of that session's 1.2949 peak. Specifics light thus far, with commentary very much just digesting the statement and tariff implications.
  • USD/JPY has extended on yesterday's upside with JPY the worst performer across the majors. Fresh macro drivers for Japan are light as markets look ahead to Tokyo CPI overnight. Finds itself at a 150.96 peak.
  • NOK picked up on the Norges Bank announcement (details below), with EUR/NOK knee jerking to a 11.3374 low before then paring modestly.
  • Antipodeans attempting to recoup lost ground and take advantage of USD downside, of note is the suggestion that Trump could give China some tariff relief for a TikTok deal.
  • Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025; Q4-2025 Repo Path 4.21% (prev. 3.80%).
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1763 vs exp. 7.2728 (Prev. 7.1754).

Fixed Income

  • Modest divergence between EGBs and USTs with Bunds firmer and yields lower given the growth implications of the latest tariff commentary, though Bunds have faded from early 128.69 peaks and are at session lows some 40 ticks below but still just in the green.
  • USTs meanwhile find themselves in the red, with yields picking up on the global and US inflationary implications of such action, as such yields are firmer with the curve steepening ahead of data and 7yr supply; a sale which follows a robust 2yr and more a tepid 5yr outing earlier in the week.
  • Gilts in the red despite opening with very modest gains. Pressure which comes given the inflationary implications of the above and despite officials in the UK stressing that they do not plan to retaliate to US action and are seeking favourable deals. Thus far, at a 90.55 trough, below Wednesday’s 90.75 low which printed during the statement.
  • Reuters calculations suggest China stepped up fiscal support and accelerated bond issuance to the highest on record in Q1 2025, issuing a total of CNY 3.28tln.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are both in the red with sentiment feeling heavy amid the US administration's ongoing tariff rhetoric. Otherwise, rhetoric has been light but prices found somewhat of a floor around the time that Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister said that given the current circumstances, it is impossible that Russia will make any concessions on strategic stability, and there is no concrete agreement on the Black Sea deal.
  • WTI May resides in a USD 69.22-69.96/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 73.35-73.97/bbl.
  • Dutch TTF shifts between modest gains and losses in early European hours, with complex-specific newsflow light this morning but with traders cognizant of the heating season coming to an end, with stockpiling season ahead.
  • Precious metals are mostly firmer with gold gaining on haven flows and most recently extending above the USD 3050/oz mark, a much which occurred without a fresh fundamental driver and may be more technically driven.
  • Base metals hit on the risk tone and tariff commentary. 3M LME copper current resides in a USD 9,828.80-9,997.75/t range at the time of writing.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US President Trump said US attacks on Houthis will continue for a long time.
  • Hamas spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanoua was killed in an Israeli airstrike on northern Gaza, according to Hamas media cited by Reuters. In relevant news, Lebanese media reported an Israeli march targeted a car on a road in Tyre in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • "US official to Al-Arabiya: The Pentagon is considering plans to deploy additional forces in the Middle East", according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia's Foreign Ministry says recent Russia-US contacts are at the beginning of a long and difficult process of restoring relations, according to RIA.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says given the current circumstances, it is impossible that Russia will make any concessions on strategic stability, via Tass; no concrete agreement on Black Sea deal.
  • European Council President Costa says EU must keep the pressure on Russia via sanctions and he will convey this message in today's leaders' meeting on Ukraine
  • North Korean leader Kim supervised tests of kamikaze drones and the nation was presumed to send at least 3,000 more troops to Russia, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%
    • 4Q Personal Consumption, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
    • 4Q GDP Price Index, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
    • 4Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
  • 08:30: Feb. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$138b, prior -$153.3b, revised -$155.6b
  • 08:30: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 223,000
    • March Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m
  • 08:30: Feb. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%
    • Feb. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.8%
  • 10:00: Feb. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 1.0%, prior -4.6%
    • Feb. Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -5.2%
  • 11:00: March Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Shortly after the US market close last night, President Trump announced additional 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, which will start to be collected from April 3. President Trump framed the tariffs as “permanent”, and the tariffs will apply not just to fully assembled cars, but also to key auto parts, including engines, transmissions and electrical components with the tariffs on auto parts set to take effect no later than May 3. President Trump separately said that reciprocal tariffs were still coming on April 2, although he later added that these will be “very lenient”, while also mentioning upcoming tariffs on pharmaceuticals and lumber. President Trump also said that Republicans in Congress would work on approving tax deductions on car interest rate payments.

The announcement on auto tariffs came after the US close, but the shares of automakers lost ground in after-hours trading as a result. For instance, General Motors was down -6.26%, whilst Ford fell -4.66%. That’s been echoed in Asian markets overnight, with Toyota down -2.72%, making it one of the weaker performers in the Nikkei, which itself has fallen -0.96%. Looking forward, DAX futures have also slumped another -0.75% overnight, reflecting the number of automakers in the index and Germany’s dependence on trade. However, US equities have showed signs of stabilising this morning, with S&P 500 futures up +0.11%.

Before the tariff announcement, equities had shown some signs of bottoming out, which followed a WSJ story that President Trump and his trade team were considering a narrower tariff regime than they once envisaged. But a negative tone still dominated overall, as reports had already come out that President Trump was preparing an announcement on auto tariffs (before any specifics came out) leading to a clear risk-off mood, which also wasn’t helped by an FT report claiming that EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič expected US tariffs “in the realm of 20%”. Unsurprisingly, the most-exposed sectors took a particular hit, and Europe’s STOXX Automobiles and Parts Index ended the session down -2.56%. The moves also meant the German DAX (-1.17%) underperformed, and US automakers also lost ground, with GM down -3.12% in the main session, before the subsequent -6.26% decline after-hours.

That tariff hit was evident more broadly among global equities. In the US, the Magnificent 7 (-3.00%) saw a particularly large slump, reversing course after its strongest 3-day performance since the US election. In turn, that dragged down the S&P 500 (-1.12%), which fell back even though a narrow majority of the index’s components actually moved higher on the day, which just goes to show how much influence the Mag 7 still have. Some of the more defensive sectors including consumer staples (+1.42%) and utilities (+0.70%) put in a solid performance, but Nvidia (-5.74%) and Tesla (-5.58%) led the declines, ending the session as the 5th and 7th worst performers in the S&P 500, respectively. There was also a team of equity analysts who said Microsoft (-1.31%) had walked away from more data centre projects. Their note last month, that first discussed this trend, was part of the reason the Mag-7 sell-off gathered some momentum in February. Earlier in the, week Alibaba chairman Joe Tsai warned of a potential bubble in data centres. So one to continue to watch. Back in Europe, there was also a slump across the board led by tech and auto stocks, with the STOXX 600 (-0.70%) posting its biggest daily decline in two weeks.

Elsewhere, the tariff news also saw copper futures (+0.64%) rise to a record high, which followed Bloomberg’s report that US copper tariffs could happen within several weeks, which would be much sooner than the 270-day deadline for the investigation launched last month. So that added to fears about inflationary pressures, pushing the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.9bps) up to a one-month closing high of 4.35%. Matters also weren’t helped by a fresh rise in oil prices, with Brent crude (+1.05%) up to its highest level so far this month, at $73.79/bbl. So by the close, the US 1yr inflation swap was up +3.5bps to 3.02%, only just beneath its recent closing peak of 3.05% last month. Higher yields and the risk-off tone helped the dollar index (+0.33%) rise to its highest in three weeks.

Whilst tariffs were the main global news story yesterday, there were several economic headlines from the UK too, as the government announced fresh spending cuts at their Spring Statement. The context is that without the cuts, the government would have risked breaching their fiscal rules, thanks to a combination of growth downgrades and higher bond yields since their Budget in October. So if they hadn’t done anything, their margin against the rules would have been cut from £9.9bn in October to -£4.1bn today. However, the latest measures have now restored that headroom back to £9.9bn, which include benefit changes and reforms to public services. Nevertheless, it’s still quite a narrow margin by historical standards, and the OBR judged that the probability of meeting the fiscal mandate (for the current budget to balance in 2029-30) is only 54%. So the risk is that further fiscal tightening might be required later in the year if growth keeps surprising on the downside or bond yields creep higher.

Against that backdrop, UK gilts outperformed yesterday, with a big boost after the UK Debt Management Office said they’d sell £299.2bn of gilts in the 2025-26 fiscal year, a bit beneath the £302bn expected by the consensus. That gilt rally also got further support from the softer-than-expected CPI print for February, with headline CPI down to +2.8% (vs. +3.0% expected). So that led investors to dial up the likelihood of another rate cut at the Bank of England’s next meeting in May, with the probability up from 61% on Tuesday to 77% by yesterday’s close. In turn, that saw gilts rally across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) and the 10yr yield (-3.1bps) both falling.

Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields were fairly steady, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.4bps) not seeing much movement in either direction. There was a bit of ECB commentary, with Austria’s Holzmann (a hawk) saying that there was “a need to be cautious in reducing the interest rate too much.” But France’s Villeroy said they “still have room to cut pragmatically”, and investors moved to price in a growing likelihood that we’d still get another rate cut at the next meeting in April. In fact, overnight index swaps raised the probability of another cut to 76%.

Overnight in Asia, that negative market reaction has continued following the auto tariff announcement from President Trump. The Nikkei (-0.96%) and the KOSPI (-1.35%) are leading the losses, with Australia’s S&P/ASX/200 also down -0.37%. However, it hasn’t all been bad news, with the Hang Seng (+0.90%) posting a strong performance this morning, whilst the CSI 300 (+0.32%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.22%) are also in positive territory.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the third estimate of Q4 GDP, the weekly initial jobless claims, and pending home sales for February. We’ll also get the Euro Area M3 money supply for February. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Villeroy, Wunsch, Escriva and Schnabel, the Fed’s Barkin and Collins, and the BoE’s Dhingra.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 08:25

The Mechanics of Silver Price Suppression

The Mechanics of Silver Price Suppression

Authored by Jesse Colombo via The Bubble Bubble Report,

Many precious metals investors have heard about silver manipulation or suspected it, but few fully understand how it works or can clearly explain it. Many also intuitively sense that silver’s price is artificially low and should be much higher but struggle to identify what—or who—is keeping it suppressed. I have committed myself to studying silver price manipulation, documenting the evidence, educating others, and exposing these practices to bring them to an end and ensure justice is served. In this article, I will explain in clear and accessible terms how silver’s price is systematically manipulated and suppressed.

Simply put, the goal of silver price manipulation is to keep silver’s price artificially low as well as prevent it from breaking above key technical levels that could trigger a full-blown bull market. According to consensus within the precious metals community, the primary culprits behind silver price manipulation are the bullion banks—the most influential players in the precious metals market. These include major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, UBS, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs, several of which have been found guilty of manipulating precious metals markets—particularly gold and silver.

The LBMA’s office in the heart of the City of London. Source: lbma.org.uk.

Bullion banks are typically members of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the leading authority overseeing the global over-the-counter (OTC) precious metals market. As LBMA members, these banks play a central role in the market by acting as market makers, facilitating large trades, managing vaulting and storage, and participating in price-setting mechanisms such as the daily London Gold and Silver Fix. This dominant position allows them to exert significant influence over silver prices, making manipulation not just possible, but systemic.

The most common, obvious, and widespread form of silver manipulation is price slams—also known as "tamps"—which almost exclusively take place during the New York COMEX trading session between 8:30 and 11 AM EST. As I’ll explain in greater detail shortly, these slams occur on a high percentage of mornings, but they become even more frequent and aggressive when silver is attempting to break above a key technical or psychological level.

When silver approaches a breakout point that could trigger a snowball effect of additional buying, bullion banks step in to drop the hammer, forcefully slamming the price back down below that level. This calculated suppression is designed to demoralize existing silver investors, discourage new participants, and ensure that silver’s price languishes, preventing momentum from building in its favor.

Silver’s price action over the past year serves as a textbook example of how silver tamping works. As the chart below illustrates, silver has repeatedly attempted to break above the $32–$33 resistance zone, only to be slammed back down each time—except for the current breakout attempt (the outcome of which remains uncertain).

Notably, these persistent price slams have kept silver stagnant, even as gold has surged by approximately $1,000 per ounce to $3,000—a powerful 50% bull market rally that, under normal conditions, would have pulled silver higher due to their historically strong price relationship. However, bullion banks have gone to extraordinary lengths to prevent silver from following its sibling, gold.

To see what one of these slams or tamps looks like on an intraday chart, let’s examine a particularly egregious example from Friday morning, February 14th. While the daily chart above provides a broader view of the price action, the intraday chart below captures exactly how it unfolded that morning. Bullion banks rely on the assumption that most people won’t scrutinize their tactics too closely—but that’s exactly what we’re going to do here.

Some of the most aggressive slams tend to occur on Friday mornings during the U.S. trading session. With the Asian and European markets closed, trading volume and liquidity are significantly lower, creating the perfect conditions for bullion banks to manipulate silver’s price with minimal resistance. This lack of market depth allows them to maximize their impact, giving them more “bang for their buck” when executing price suppression tactics.

As you can see from the 5-minute intraday chart, silver staged a powerful breakout, surging $1 per ounce (3%) during the Asian and European trading sessions. This rally pushed silver above the key $33 resistance level, which had acted as a ceiling for much of the past year, sparking excitement within the precious metals community as many believed silver was finally taking off.

However, around 9 AM New York time, as the U.S. trading session got underway, a massive flood of "paper" silver—in the form of futures contracts—was suddenly dumped onto the market. This deliberate maneuver drove silver back below the critical $33 level, halting the breakout in its tracks and demoralizing silver investors once again.

Note that the silver dumped onto the market was "paper" silver—futures contracts largely unbacked by physical metal. This is the primary way bullion banks artificially suppress silver’s price, keeping it well below where it should be based on true supply and demand for physical silver. What’s both infuriating and disheartening is that this manipulative pattern has persisted almost daily for decades, consistently driving prices downward—never upward.

The chart below shows another egregious example of the manipulation slam pattern, captured on the intraday silver futures chart from late October to early November. During this period, silver made a strong breakout attempt, reaching as high as $35 per ounce, only to be aggressively slammed lower nearly every morning between 8:30 AM and 11:00 AM EST. The heavy selling pressure during the U.S. trading session repeatedly drove silver’s price back down, putting the kibosh on the widely watched late October breakout attempt.

These manipulation slams almost exclusively occur in the morning and rarely at any other time of the trading day. To me, these are unmistakable fingerprints of bullion banks deliberately suppressing silver’s price. This is anything but an organic or natural market.

And sure enough, at the time of writing on March 19, 2025, silver has been slammed in all four of the last four trading sessions, proving that this manipulation pattern remains alive and well:

Interestingly, Gold Charts R Us—a leading provider of precious metals data—analyzed and averaged every silver futures trading session from 2007 to 2013. Their findings revealed a clear and consistent pattern: sharp price slams during the New York morning session, followed by recoveries in the afternoon and overnight as the Asian and European markets open. This exact pattern is clearly visible in the chart, and unfortunately, the same phenomenon continues in 2025.

Gold Charts R Us also provided statistical evidence through another model, demonstrating that for literally decades, silver has been consistently slammed during the New York morning trading sessions, only to recover later in the European and Asian sessions.

The black line on this chart represents the New York Intraday Silver Index, which tracks the theoretical price of silver if one were to buy at the New York open, hold throughout the trading day, and sell at the New York close. This index further illustrates how silver’s price is regularly pressured downward during U.S. market hours before rebounding in overseas sessions. Starting from a base of 100 in 1970, this index has been relentlessly eroded, plunging to just 8.19 by February 2025—a staggering decline of nearly 92%.

In stark contrast, the New York Overnight Silver Index, represented by the blue line on the chart, tracks the theoretical price of silver if one were to buy at the New York close in the afternoon and sell at the New York open the following morning. Starting from a base of 100 in 1970, this index has skyrocketed to over 20,000 by February 2025—an astonishing gain of 19,900%.

Gold Charts R Us also included the standard price of silver, represented by the red line on the chart, as a baseline for comparison. Since 1970, it has risen a little more than 16-fold, significantly outperforming the New York Intraday Silver Index but falling far short of the explosive gains seen in the New York Overnight Silver Index.

This is clear evidence that normal market forces are not at play. Instead, it points to blatant downward manipulation. Unfortunately, this suppression discourages both existing silver investors and potential newcomers, which is precisely the intended goal. By keeping silver artificially low, the manipulators aim to undermine assets that compete with the U.S. dollar, which itself is no longer backed by anything.

Silver slams, or tamps, have become so normalized and expected that the precious metals community even jokes about a mythical figure known as Mr. Slammy—a fictional character who appears each morning to manipulate the price of gold and silver by slamming them down.

Adding to the humor, there is even a parody account on X impersonating Mr. Slammy, playfully teasing and tormenting precious metals investors whenever gold and silver surge higher. When the metals inevitably get slammed back down, the account takes mock victory laps, celebrating the suppression.

The origin of the term “tamp” or “tamping down” in reference to intentionally slamming silver prices traces back to a statement made in 2021 by Rostin Behnam, who was then chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Behnam essentially admitted that silver was deliberately slammed by 10% on February 2, 2021, and, in an approving tone, stated that silver futures were able to “tamp down what could have been a much worse situation.”

That “situation” referred to growing fears of a silver shortage and a potential squeeze, which was on the verge of sending prices significantly higher. Instead of preventing market manipulation, as the CFTC is supposed to do, it essentially acknowledged it and gave it tacit approval—which is infuriating. This clearly shows that the agency is protecting the big banks rather than looking out for everyday investors and traders.

Another method bullion banks use to suppress silver prices, aside from flooding the market with massive quantities of paper silver almost daily, is spoofing. This tactic involves placing large sell orders on the futures limit order book to create an artificial price ceiling, reinforcing resistance at key levels.

This form of manipulation isn't just theoretical. In 2023, two former JP Morgan precious metals traders, Michael Nowak and Gregg Smith, were convicted of price manipulation and spoofing as part of a broader market-rigging scheme, resulting in fines and prison sentences. Yet, despite these convictions, similar tactics continue to be used in one form or another.

As I’ve been explaining, one of the key factors keeping silver’s price suppressed over the past year has been the heavy short selling of COMEX silver futures by swap dealers—primarily the trading desks of bullion banks such as JP Morgan and UBS. In the process, these entities amassed a massive net short position of 42,116 futures contracts, equivalent to 211 million ounces of silver—or roughly a quarter of the world’s annual silver production. This staggering figure underscores the immense downward pressure being exerted on the silver market.

What’s even more astonishing is how much of this massive short position in silver futures is naked, meaning it isn’t backed by physical silver. Instead, it consists largely of “paper” silver being dumped onto the market to artificially suppress prices. However, once silver finally breaks out, it is likely trigger a wave of short covering, where the banks that bet against silver through naked short selling are forced to buy it back as prices rise to limit their losses.As the price climbs, these banks will become increasingly desperate to close their positions, further fueling the rally.

If the buying pressure is strong enough, it could even lead to a short squeeze, dramatically amplifying silver’s upward momentum. Given the sheer size of their short position, bullion banks stand to lose approximately $211 million for every $1 increase in silver’s price—a setup for a major price surge. Now, imagine what happens if silver climbs by $5, $10, $20, or more from this point.

The risk of an explosive silver short squeeze is further amplified by the astonishing ratio of 378 ounces of paper silver—including ETFs, futures, and other derivatives—for every single ounce of physical silver. This extreme imbalance highlights just how overleveraged the paper silver market has become.

In a violent short squeeze, holders of paper silver could be forced to scramble for the extremely scarce physical silver to fulfill their contractual obligations. This would likely cause the price of paper silver products to collapse, while physical silver prices could skyrocket to jaw-dropping levels, potentially reaching several hundred dollars per ounce.

What motivates bullion banks to suppress the price of silver? They do so on behalf of central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, which seek to maintain confidence in paper currencies like the U.S. dollar. A soaring silver price signals weakness in fiat money, raising doubts about its strength and stability. By keeping silver artificially low, bullion banks help preserve the illusion of a strong dollar.

This motivation becomes clear when considering that the U.S. money supply has surged by over 85,000% since 1920, drastically eroding the dollar’s purchasing power. As the dollar declines, the cost of living continues to rise, making a normal middle-class lifestyle increasingly out of reach for most Americans. In contrast, while paper currencies around the world have steadily lost value, silver has retained its purchasing power, serving as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

While the supply of dollars has surged and continues to expand, silver has consistently preserved its purchasing power. The compelling chart below illustrates how the purchasing power of $1,000 in silver ounces has changed over time. In 1960, $1,000 could buy 1,087 ounces of silver, but today, it purchases only 29.74 ounces—a staggering 97% decline in the dollar's purchasing power relative to silver. This means that the same amount of silver in 1960 could buy roughly the same quantity of goods and services then as it does today, whereas the dollar has lost significant value. That’s a powerful reason to consider storing wealth in physical silver.

Though silver is heavily manipulated and suppressed—possibly the most manipulated asset on the planet—I have strong hope that it will soon break free and thrive. I explained this in detail in a recent report, which I highly recommend reading for further insights, as I don’t have space to cover it fully in this already lengthy piece.

The key reasons for my optimism include the fact that silver has been in a supply deficit for the past five years, with demand consistently outpacing supply. Additionally, silver is extremely undervalued by nearly every measure. I see it as a beach ball being held underwater—it can’t stay suppressed much longer and is bound to pop back up with force.

Also, take a look at the chart below and notice how gold struggled from 2020 to early 2024 to break above the $2,000–$2,100 resistance zone, which acted as a price ceiling for much of that period. Despite multiple attempts, gold was repeatedly pushed back down. However, in March 2024, it finally broke out, igniting the powerful bull market we see today. I see striking parallels with silver’s $32–$33 resistance zone over the past year and believe that once silver manages to close above this level, it will soar just as gold did.

To summarize, silver is heavily manipulated and suppressed by bullion banks like JP Morgan and UBS, acting on behalf of central banks. The price of silver should be significantly higher than its current level. While this is infuriating from a moral standpoint, it also presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for patient silver stackers to acquire the metal at artificially low prices before it breaks free from manipulation and soars—just as gold did one year ago.

At the same time, I am working tirelessly to understand, document, expose, and educate the broader public about silver price manipulation, with the goal of bringing it to an end and ensuring that justice is served. Please help me spread the word by sharing this report with anyone who may be interested.

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 08:05

Goldman Weighs In On Accelerated Copper Import Tariff Timeline 

Goldman Weighs In On Accelerated Copper Import Tariff Timeline 

President Trump's national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, launched in February to review raw copper, refined copper, copper concentrates, copper alloys, scrap copper, and other copper derivatives imported into the U.S, directed the Commerce Department to deliver tariff recommendations to the White House within 270 days. That review process has likely been accelerated, as a new report suggests U.S. copper imports could be enacted in the near-term. 

Sources told Bloomberg that the Trump administration is moving quickly with its review of copper import tariffs and will likely act well before the 270-day deadline, which was expected between September and November. The new timeline has now shifted to mid-May.

Commenting on the shortened timeline, Goldman's Eoin Dinsmore, Aurelia Waltham, and others provided clients with a critical Q&A addressing physical market flows and pricing across various exchanges:

What is the impact on physical market flows?

Greater certainty on copper tariffs means COMEX is likely to trade at a higher premium to LME, but there is less time to ship metal to the U.S. Assuming tariffs are implemented in May, we think shipments to the U.S. will likely be fast tracked, with net imports in April potentially jumping 200kt[1] above the standard 60-70kt/month, albeit with upside risk. However, with the possibility of earlier tariff implementation, we now expect U.S. stocks to decline by 30-40kt/month from mid-to-late Q2 onwards. Thus, we avoid a stock glut in the U.S. in Q3 2025, when we expect global copper market tightness to be most pronounced.

What is the impact on the LME price?

We see stranded stocks at the low-end of our range - a 200kt increase in U.S. stocks, and a possible 60kt loss of refined production from lower U.S. exports of copper concentrates and scrap. But by Q3, when we forecast the bulk of the 2025 annual global deficit will occur, U.S. stocks should have started to normalize. Thus, the expected H2 crunch should be less pronounced, which reduces upside risk to our LME price forecast. We hold to our 3/6/12 Month LME price forecasts of $9,600/t, $10,000/t and $10,700/t, and flag near-term downside risk from the trade policy update on April 2nd.

Will COMEX now price the full 25% tariff over the LME?

Factoring in uncertainty on the tariff level and high U.S. inventories, we think an implied tariff of 20% should be the cap in the near-term. This has also been a level regularly cited as a good exit point in numerous client meetings.

Will Sep-Dec 2025 spreads tighten?

We close the trade recommendation to go long Sep-Dec 2025 timespreads. Despite Q3 2025 being the key point for global copper market tightness, the spread will no longer need to rise to a level to halt exports to the U.S. Based on our Q3 ex-US reported inventories forecast, the likely backwardation would be only $0-60/t, close to current levels.

The analysts see global copper markets shifting into a deficit in 2Q25.

U.S. copper inventories should begin declining after tariffs are enacted.

Analysts expect the COMEX and LME spread to be capped soon. 

The Bloomberg report sent copper prices on Comex up 3% to a record $5.37 per pound. Meanwhile, the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange fell 2% to $9,893 per ton, widening the gap between the two contracts to about $1,700 per ton

"The news today is this story of Copper tariffs coming sooner than possibly expected... LME/CMX arb at $1750-1800 in July (+$300 to start today) or 18% Tarrff expected," Goldman analyst James McGeoch told clients earlier. 

McGeoch offered some thoughts about today's news and copper trading:

  • The durability of this move is significantly greater than 2024. Balances are tight, there is a fundamental driver and a technical ampifier (that technical is also fundamental in that the U.S. is short metal, fundamentally they want to change that).

  • As price traded back to $10k last night, the CMX premium now well above 15%, as it trades through record highs to 529 (+1.5%), traders (with vested interests) talk about price to $12k

  • Remember that whilst metal is being stacked in the U.S., we had last week the China SRB suggest it was also looking to build stocks of critical minerals: cobalt, copper, nickel, and lithium  link. So Apparent demand (at either end, U.S. and China) is amplifying the effect of real demand (electrification, Chinese fiscal put, German infra plan), and tightening the balances further

  • Trading observation in discussion Monday - Positioning has not baked the above in. Regional contract differentiation leaves those with the global view on sideline (also too much idiosyncratic risk they lack edge to play). Point is the big rally lacks a big uptick in spec interest/positioning. The copper fwds have a lot to go, the incentives not in the curve and physical premiums doubled last week (first sign they are being impacted). The work now is dissecting physical location premiums and how the moves in inventory can impact near term demand. As we rally to $10k we may see some producing selling and as such spreads can remain bid.

  • CTA's are as long as I can recall, the GS model suggests close to $18bn (historical max 19.6bn). This is where all the length is. CFTC weekly data showed a fairly meh inc for managed money accts (CME +9 to 22k lots, LME +2 to 63k)

And we ask: What happens to global copper production with prices at record highs?

Now that tariffs are likely to be imposed sooner, importers will have significantly less time to rush copper shipments into the U.S.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 06:55

WTF Headline Of The Day: Convicted Pakistani Pedo Avoids Deportation From UK Because He's An Alcoholic

WTF Headline Of The Day: Convicted Pakistani Pedo Avoids Deportation From UK Because He's An Alcoholic

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A convicted pedophile has escaped deportation from the UK to his native country of Pakistan after a judge ruled that he would face “inhuman or degrading treatment” there for being an alcoholic.

Yes, really.

The man was released from prison after serving sentences for sex offences, but was subsequently charged again after assaulting a teenage girl.

The Home Office issued a deportation order, however, the guy successfully appealed it using the European Convention on Human Rights whilst serving another one year sentence in prison.

His legal representatives argued that without proper treatment for his addiction in Pakistan, his “uncontrollable” alcoholism could worsen and potentially lead to “further suffering.”

Respondents on X expressed disbelief at the UK justice system, with many pointing out that there are people currently serving longer prison sentences for spicy tweets.

This case follows similar incidents, including one just last month where another Pakistani pedo was permitted to remain in the UK with a judge ruling that deportation would be “unduly harsh” owing to the fact that his family in Pakistan took a “dim view” of his crimes.

Conservative MP Sir Alec Shelbrooke urged that “The Government needs to stop dangerous criminals being allowed to stay in this country.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/27/2025 - 06:30

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