Zero Hedge

Attention Boomers: AI-Backed Deepfake Impersonations Are Getting Harder To Detect, FBI Warns

Attention Boomers: AI-Backed Deepfake Impersonations Are Getting Harder To Detect, FBI Warns

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Increasingly hard-to-detect deepfake content created with artificial intelligence is being exploited by criminals to impersonate trusted individuals, the FBI and the American Bankers Association (ABA) said in a report published on Sept. 3.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation in Washington on Aug. 7, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

In its “Deepfake Media Scams” infographic, the FBI said that scams targeting Americans are surging. Since 2020, the agency has received more than 4.2 million reports of fraud, amounting to $50.5 billion in losses. “Imposter scams in particular are on the rise. ... Criminals are using deepfakes, or media that is generated or manipulated by AI, to gain your trust and scam you out of your hard-earned money.”

Deepfake content can include altered images, audio, or video. Scammers may pose as family, friends, or public figures, including celebrities, law enforcement, and government officials, the FBI warned.

“Deepfakes are becoming increasingly sophisticated and harder to detect,” said Sam Kunjukunju, vice president of consumer education for the ABA Foundation.

According to the infographic, certain inconsistencies in the AI-generated material can help detect deepfakes.

When it comes to images or videos, people should watch out for blurred or distorted faces; unnatural shadows or lighting; whether audio and video are out of sync; whether the teeth and hair look real; and whether the person blinks too little or too much. In the case of audio, people should listen closely to determine if the tone of voice is too flat or unnatural.

The infographic listed three red flags of a deepfake scam: unexpected requests for money or personal information; emotional manipulation involving urgency or fear; and uncharacteristic communication from what appears to be a known individual.

To remain safe, the ABA and FBI advised Americans to think before responding to emotional or urgent requests, and to create code words or phrases to confirm the identities of loved ones.

“The FBI continues to see a troubling rise in fraud reports involving deepfake media,” said Jose Perez, assistant director of the FBI’s Criminal Investigative Division.

[ZH: for example...]

“Educating the public about this emerging threat is key to preventing these scams and minimizing their impact. We encourage consumers to stay informed and share what they learn with friends and family so they can spot deepfakes before they do any harm.”

According to an Aug. 6 report by cybersecurity company Group-IB, the global economic impact of losses from deepfake-enabled fraud is estimated to reach $40 billion by 2027.

“Stolen money is almost never recovered: Due to rapid laundering through money‑mule chains and crypto mixers, fewer than 5 percent of funds lost to sophisticated vishing scams are ever recovered,” it said.

Vishing, a short form of voice phishing, refers to scammers impersonating authority figures such as government officials, tech support personnel, and bank employees to dupe targets and steal money.

According to Group-IB, deepfake vishing relies heavily on emotional manipulation tactics. Targets of such scams include corporate executives and financial employees.

Elderly and emotionally distressed individuals are also vulnerable to deepfake vishing tactics due to their limited digital literacy and unfamiliarity with artificial voice tech, Group-IB added. As such, scams involving impersonation of familiar-sounding voices may have a bigger impact on these individuals.

In June, a deepfake scam incident came to light involving a Canadian man in his 80s losing more than $15,000 in a scheme that used a deepfake of Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

In the scam, Ford was depicted promoting a mutual fund account, which the victim saw via a Facebook ad. When the victim clicked on the ad, a chat opened up, ultimately convincing him to invest the money.

In June, Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) introduced the bipartisan Preventing Deep Fake Scams Act, which aims to tackle the threat posed by such fraud.

The bill seeks to address AI-assisted data and identity theft or fraud by setting up an AI-focused task force in the financial sector.

“Scammers are using deep fakes to impersonate victims’ family members in order to steal their money,” Husted said.

“As fraudsters continue to scheme, we need to make sure we utilize AI so that we can better protect innocent Americans and prevent these scams from happening in the first place. My bill would protect Ohio’s seniors, families and small business owners from malicious actors who take advantage of their compassion.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 17:40

Israel Reportedly Targeted Turkish Arms Transfers In Latest Syria Strike

Israel Reportedly Targeted Turkish Arms Transfers In Latest Syria Strike

On Monday night Israel's military carried out more major airstrikes across the central and western parts of Syria, which the Jolani regime's foreign minister condemned as "a blatant infringement" of its sovereignty and regional stability.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said that "forces are operating in all combat zones day and night for the security of Israel" - and Israel has been using varying justifications for these attacks, including that former Assad army weapons don't fall into the hands of extremists.

Scene of explosion in Homs Monday night, via Turkish Minute

But this fresh assault was the biggest probably in months, given it involved dozens of separate strikes on 'military targets' of the Islamist-led government.

Attacks were observed and reported in Palmyra and Homs, as well as on the coastal city of Latakia. The UK-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that "the Israeli strike near Homs targeted a military unit south of the city".

Israeli media has pointed to alleged Turkish weapons stores being struck:

The Saudi news channel Al-Hadath reported Tuesday that the IDF site struck overnight in the Syrian city of Homs was a warehouse storing missiles and air defense equipment. According to the report, the weapons were manufactured in Turkey and had recently been transferred to Homs.

Ironically, for years Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar were completely silent when Israel attacked Assad's Syria literally hundreds of times, but now things have changed, as the Gulf backs the Al-Qaeda linked President Sharaa/Jolani. Arab News writes:

Saudi Arabia has strongly condemned the continued Israeli strikes on Syrian territory, the latest of which targeted several areas in Homs and Latakia governorates.

In a statement on Tuesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the attacks as a “flagrant violation” of international law and of the 1974 disengagement agreement between Syria and Israel.

“The Kingdom affirms its full support for the measures taken by the Syrian government to achieve security and stability in Syria, preserve civil peace, and uphold the sovereignty of the state and its institutions over all its territories,” the ministry said.

So suddenly Saudi Arabia and the GCC states start talking about "sovereignty" only after they got their desired regime change in Damascus.

Of course, Saudi and Israeli intelligence had worked behind the scenes for years - sometimes reportedly in coordination - to undermine Syria in support of jihadists militants who sought to overthrow Assad. The result, as we've been documenting, has been a huge rise in attacks on religious minorities - including against Christians, Druze, and Alawites.

Radical Saudi clerics have long been present in places like Idlib, and are now in Damascus, in support of the prior anti-Assad jihadist insurgency which now rules the country. Currently, Israel doesn't want Turkish influence or weapons in the war-ravaged country.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 17:20

Nine Meals From Anarchy

Nine Meals From Anarchy

Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”

Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky.

The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.

But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbour with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, “I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbour and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you.”

But surely, there’s no need to speculate on this concern. There’s nothing on the evening news to suggest that such a problem even might be on the horizon. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.

The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.

If there were a month where significant inflation took place (say, 3%), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.

From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalised.

In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.

However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighbourhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighbourhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighbourhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had “invaded” his local supermarket.

*  *  *

Cough

Cough

Cough (this one for closers only)

*  *  *

In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.

Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.

Then … unfortunately … the cavalry arrives

At that point, it would be very likely that the central government would step in and issue controls to the food industry that served political needs rather than business needs, greatly exacerbating the problem. Suppliers would be ordered to deliver to those neighbourhoods where the riots are the worst, even if those retailers are unable to pay. This would increase the number of closings of suppliers.

Along the way, truckers would begin to refuse to enter troubled neighbourhoods, and the military might well be brought in to force deliveries to take place.

But why worry about the above? After all, inflation is contained at present and, although governments fudge the numbers, the present level of inflation is not sufficient to create the above scenario, as it has in so many other countries.

So, what would it take for the above to occur? Well, historically, it has always begun with excessive debt. We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history. In addition, the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions. They will most certainly pop.

With a crash in the markets, deflation always follows as people try to unload assets to cover for their losses. The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has stated that it will unquestionably print as much money as it takes to counter deflation. Unfortunately, inflation has a far greater effect on the price of commodities than assets. Therefore, the prices of commodities will rise dramatically, further squeezing the purchasing power of the consumer, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he will buy assets, even if they’re bargain priced. Therefore, asset holders will drop their prices repeatedly as they become more desperate. The Fed then prints more to counter the deeper deflation and we enter a period when deflation and inflation are increasing concurrently.

Historically, when this point has been reached, no government has ever done the right thing. They have, instead, done the very opposite – keep printing. A by-product of this conundrum is reflected in the photo above. Food still exists, but retailers shut down because they cannot pay for goods. Suppliers shut down because they’re not receiving payments from retailers. Producers cut production because sales are plummeting.

In every country that has passed through such a period, the government has eventually gotten out of the way and the free market has prevailed, re-energizing the industry and creating a return to normal. The question is not whether civilization will come to an end. (It will not.) The question is the liveability of a society that is experiencing a food crisis, as even the best of people are likely to panic and become a potential threat to anyone who is known to store a case of soup in his cellar.

Fear of starvation is fundamentally different from other fears of shortages. Even good people panic. In such times, it’s advantageous to be living in a rural setting, as far from the centre of panic as possible. It’s also advantageous to store food in advance that will last for several months, if necessary. However, even these measures are no guarantee, as, today, modern highways and efficient cars make it easy for anyone to travel quickly to where the goods are. The ideal is to be prepared to sit out the crisis in a country that will be less likely to be impacted by dramatic inflation – where the likelihood of a food crisis is low and basic safety is more assured.

*  *  *

History teaches us that societies are far more fragile than they appear, and the thin line between order and chaos often comes down to whether people can put food on the table. The warning signs are already in place, and while no one can predict the exact moment of crisis, we can prepare. To understand the deeper risks ahead and learn how to safeguard yourself and your family before panic sets in, we urge you to read our Special Report: Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse. You can access it here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 17:00

Charlotte Pocketed $3.3M From Left-Wing NGO To Empty Jails For 'Racial Equity'

Charlotte Pocketed $3.3M From Left-Wing NGO To Empty Jails For 'Racial Equity'

The optics are incredibly awful for the entire Democratic Party machine.

The brutal killing of Iryna Zarutska (Ukrainian refugee) on a commuter train in North Carolina highlights not only the willingness of leftist corporate media to cover up news stories that jeopardize their woke narratives but also the broader failure of so-called criminal justice reform, which appears to have shockingly backfired and become a major public safety threat. Adding to the mounting outrage, a leftist magistrate judge released the schizophrenic monster on cashless bail (before he killed Zarutska) - another failure point. And then there's this: far-left nonprofits accelerated the push for disastrous criminal justice reforms. 

It's now widely known that Decarlos Brown Jr., 34, Zarutska's killer, had been previously arrested 14 times in North Carolina for crimes ranging from assault to firearms possession, and whose own mother admitted he was schizophrenic and should never have been allowed back on the streets, was recently released on cashless bail (before he killed Zarutska) by a progressive magistrate judge despite a two-decade violent crime spree. 

But the failures don't stop with local leftist politicians and rogue progressive judges (or magistrate judges) who embrace woke and enabled criminal justice reform from hell. They extend much deeper - into the shadowy world of the dark-money-funded nonprofit industrial complex, which poured millions of dollars into Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, to push for "reducing the jail population."

"Another factor in the death of Iryna Zarutska on Charlotte's light rail--the left-wing MacArthur Foundation giving Mecklenburg county a $3.3 million grant to reduce the jail population. Specifically as part of racial equity aims," Daily Wire's Megan Basham wrote on X. 

Basham noted, "Like Soros' Open Society, the MacArthur Foundation incentivizes local municipalities to make residents less safe by leaving threats like Decarlos Brown on the streets." 

Basham's screenshots show Mecklenburg County boasting about the MacArthur Foundation plowing $3.3 million into the county as part of a "Safety and Justice Challenge" that aims to "reduce the jail population"... 

MacArthur Foundation's own website shows that it's committed to DEI. 

Using public data via Sayari, the MacArthur Foundation is linked to the usual far-left NGO suspects, including the Rockefeller Family Fund and many others that are not particularly enthusiastic about 'America First'. 

It seems as if the very pillars the Democratic Party has built itself on, whether social and criminal justice reform, progressive judges, or its dark-money-funded NGO complex, all played a role in allowing serial criminals to roam the streets, endangering the public.

Americans must avoid cities and towns where progressives enforce cashless bail and other woke policies, as these places are increasingly crime-ridden and unsafe.

Zarutska's shocking death should've never happened. This is a policy failure by the liberal elites. And there needs to be accountability at the ballot box. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 16:40

In Blind Trust We Trust

In Blind Trust We Trust

Authored by Jenna McCarthy via Jenna's Side Rocks,

Sure, the “experts” sometimes get things wrong. But at least they’re unanimous...

Dear Liberals and Legislative Leeches,

First, I want to personally thank you for trying to protect the rest of us from the answers to dangerous questions like “why are our kids getting autism at unprecedented rates?” and “why is life expectancy in America getting shorter and shorter?” Unfortunately, we’ve currently got a lunatic in charge of our nation’s collective health, and he’s out there right now, clipboard in hand, acting like the Sherlock Holmes of chronic disease and trying to figure these things out. Can you imagine? We’ve lived perfectly fine* without answers to anything for ages!

[*Perfectly fine = the sickest nation on earth, but at least we’ve cornered the market on pity. Other countries get Nobel Prizes, we get GoFundMe campaigns. Go USA!]

Remember when plus-size dudes and bearded ladies were carnival attractions?

Before RFK Jr. even got into office, we ranked first in healthcare spending, first in chronic disease, and last in every measurable health outcome. Sure, that looks bad on paper. But did you know that Kennedy once stole a dead whale that had been hit by a car and then fed the roadkill to his pet ravens (or something like that)? Or that two of his family members have called him a threat to Americans’ health? (Fine, the two family members are his sister Kerry, who was busted for not disclosing she was being handsomely paid for her “activism,” and his nephew Joseph, who sits on the board of a major pharmaceutical company—but I’m sure they’re both lovely, trustworthy people!)

Let’s face it, Kennedy is a former drug addict. I realize he’s been sober for longer than Lindsay Lohan has even been alive, but can’t we please just go back to having a fat dude in a dress making our healthcare policy calls? I felt so much safer back then, when The Science™ (*minus biology and psychiatry) wasn’t under constant, relentless attack.

You think the guy on the left knows a thing or two about health? Please.

Look, if my car makes an awful grinding noise, the last thing I want is some nutcase popping the hood and digging around under there trying to unearth the cause. No, thank you. I prefer my mechanic to pat me on the back and assure me that it’s perfectly safe to drive. How do I know if he’s telling me the truth? I don’t! That’s why cult-level trust is so important.

That’s also why it’s so tragic that Kennedy is destroying our faith in the entire vaccine industry. He recklessly insists on knowing exactly what’s in every shot, where they migrate in the body, and whether they’ll make us glow in the dark. What’s the point of that? I’m not a doctor! Since when am I qualified to read labels and make decisions? It’s far better to let our dedicated public servants decide what’s good for us—especially since every single one of them cashes a paycheck from the same pharma giants they’re regulating. They must have crazy inside intel, am I right?

I know what you might be thinking: “the experts” don’t exactly have a flawless track record.

Take Iraq (the WMDs that definitely existed). Or the opioid epidemic (“non-addictive” painkillers, anyone?). Or masks (wear them, don’t wear them, double them, ditch them), gain-of-function research (doesn’t happen, okay, it does), myocarditis in young men (rare! common! nothing to see here!), lab leaks (total conspiracy… oh wait, maybe not), “two weeks to flatten the curve” (*give or take), the food pyramid (be sure to eat your six daily servings of Wonder Bread!), hormone replacement therapy (miracle, disaster, miracle again), DDT (“what if we just sprayed it on, like, everything?”), Thalidomide (oops, sorry about your debilitating disfigurement), Vioxx (also sorry about your heart attack/stroke/death), the Tuskegee experiments (thank you for your volunteer service, gentlemen!), smoking (“More Doctors Smoke Camels”), Prozac for toddlers (because pills are obviously easier than parenting)…

I could go on, but the point is, people make mistakes. Even experts are only human. Look on the bright side: They’re due to be right any day now. Even a broken clock and all.

Here’s the thing about vaccines: A bunch of people say they have been diligently tested and are both utterly harmless and incredibly effective. Some other people say that they haven’t and that they’re not. Why would we randomly listen to the nay-sayers? I know, it seems like both sides could just present their information to the public and let us decide—but that would be pure chaos. Can you imagine, an entire country of morons trying to decipher complicated charts and graphs? We can’t even agree on how to pronounce “gyro.” (PSA: It rhymes with hero when you say it properly.)

Much better to keep things tidy: one side talks and the other side gets deplatformed.

That’s how The Science™ has always worked!

Why are we messing with that sacred system now?

So please, my progressive and/or parasitic pals, stand firm. Protect the empire of corpulence, cancer, diabetes, depression, and autoimmune disorders. Don’t let Kennedy destroy our proud tradition of blindly treating symptoms while ignoring causes. Because if that fringy health heretic gets his way, we might lose the only thing that truly unites us as Americans: our ability to fill prescriptions faster than we can fill our pieholes.

Yours in obesity and obedience,

Jenna

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 16:20

Dozens Of Containers Go Overboard In Port Of Long Beach Mishap

Dozens Of Containers Go Overboard In Port Of Long Beach Mishap

Footage of the aftermath of dozens of containers falling off a massive cargo ship at the Port of Long Beach surfaced on X in the early afternoon.

Aerial footage from local outlet ABC7 shows containers scattered across the harbor.

Port officials confirmed no injuries were reported, though the contents of the containers and the cause of the incident remain unknown.

One X user joked, "All that Temu merchandise. Total losses estimated at $5,431."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 15:30

Worst Revision In History: BLS Admits A Record 911K Fewer Jobs Were Added Under Biden

Worst Revision In History: BLS Admits A Record 911K Fewer Jobs Were Added Under Biden

Two weeks ago, before both Bloomberg and Reuters, we told our subscribers to "brace for another huge negative payrolls revision"...

... and just like one year ago when we did exactly the same, we were spot on: moments ago the BLS reported that as part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions, a record 911K payrolls for the period April 2024-March 2025 would be revised away.  As shown in the chart below, the biggest revisions were in Leisure and Hospitality, Professional and Business services, and Retail and Wholesale trade sectors.

Some more from the full press release:

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000 (-0.6 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These counts are derived primarily from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies. 

The preliminary benchmark revision reflects the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to their own sources of error. It serves as a preliminary measure of the total error in CES employment estimates from March 2024 to March 2025. Preliminary research, which is not comprehensive and is subject to updates in QCEW data, indicates that the primary contributors to the overestimation of employment growth are likely the result of two sources—response error and nonresponse error. First, businesses reported less employment to the QCEW than they reported to the CES survey (response error). Second, businesses who were selected for the CES survey but did not respond reported less employment to the QCEW than those businesses who did respond to the CES survey (nonresponse error). Estimates of other errors, such as the forecast error from the net birth-death model, are not available at this time. Information on how the net birth-death forecasts have reduced benchmark revisions historically are available on the CES Birth-Death Model Frequently Asked Questions page in question 10, www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm.

The preliminary benchmark revisions in table 1 are calculated only for March 2025 for the major industry sectors. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level. 

What is more remarkable about today's print is that after last year's stunning 818K negative revision, which was the second biggest since the global financial crisis (and which we also warned ahead of time was coming), virtually nobody expected this year's number to be higher. It was not only higher, but it was the biggest negative revision on record!

Taken at face value, the preliminary estimate suggests that payroll growth averaged 71k jobs/month between April 2024 and March 2025, vs. 147k jobs/month as currently reported in the payrolls statistics.

No wonder the WSJ now reports that "White House Prepares Report Critical of Statistics Agency" in what is a clear effort at kitchen-sinking all the ugly, fake jobs numbers that were "created" by the Biden admin, and saddled Trump with relentless negative revisions. Expect 1-2 more months of painful job prints, and then another powerful rally higher into the 2026 midterms under a new BLS commissioner as all of Biden's fake baggage is expunged. 

Commenting on the "data" revision, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirms what we said, namely that today's revision "brings the Biden jobs overstatement to a staggering 1.5M. The truth: President Trump inherited a far worse economy than reported, and he’s right to say the Fed is choking off growth with high rates."

But VP JD Vance landed the crushing blow, saying that BLS data has become completely "useless" - something we have said since 2021 - adding that a change was necessary to restore confidence. We are all eagerly awaiting said change, which will need to be far more extensive than just a replacement of the commissioner.

So what does it all mean? Couple things and we will follow up with a more extended analysis but here is the punchline:

  • Trump was absolutely correct to fire the BLS commissioner one month ago: one year of major negative revisions is happenstance; twice is coincidence; three times is enemy action... and in her case, it was just unexcusable incompetence as the most important economic data point the market uses was dead wrong. 
  • There was virtually no domestic job creation in the last year of the Biden admin when one excludes the hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens who entered the work force. 
  • The Fed should have started cutting rates in February, and would have started cutting rates in February if it knew the true sad state of the US labor market.

Just as remarkable: 2 million jobs from the last 3 years of the Biden admin have now been revised away. 

One thing that will never be revised away, however, is the trillions in debt accumulated over his period, and which we now learn encumbered future generations of Americans with massive amounts of debt only to create far fewer jobs than initially reported.

And again, ZeroHedge subs knew all this two weeks ahead of time: to stay ahead of the curve, please consider subscribing. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 15:25

FBI Director, Transportation Secretary Investigating Charlotte Stabbing Murder

FBI Director, Transportation Secretary Investigating Charlotte Stabbing Murder

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Ahead of President Trump's comments, the FBI and Transportation Department have both signaled that federal officials will investigate the fatal stabbing death of a Ukrainian refugee in North Carolina after video footage of the incident was released last week.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy wrote on Monday night that the agency “will be investigating Charlotte over its failure to protect Iryna Zarutska,” referring to the victim in the stabbing murder.

“If mayors can’t keep their trains and buses safe, they don’t deserve the taxpayers’ money,” Duffy added on X.

“Murders on public transit like that of Iryna Zarutska should never be allowed to happen again.”

At the same time, FBI Director Kash Patel said on social media that the bureau was continuing to investigate the incident.

“The FBI has been investigating the Charlotte train murder from day one. Stay tuned,” Patel wrote on Monday evening on X.

Patel did not provide other details about the nature of the investigation.

Critics say the death of Zarutska, 23, could have been prevented, and they’re blaming officials for failing to keep a man with a history of mental illness, arrests, and erratic behavior off the streets before he killed her.

On Monday, President Donald Trump wrote on social media that “Criminals like this need to be LOCKED UP.”

The suspect, Decarlos Brown Jr., 34, had served time in prison, been briefly committed for schizophrenia, and was arrested earlier this year after repeatedly calling 911 from a hospital, according to court records.

Zarutska had come to the United States to escape the war in Ukraine, relatives wrote in a GoFundMe post and in an obituary, describing her as determined to build a safer life.

Video footage of the incident shows the moments leading up to the stabbing death on a Charlotte Area Transit System light-rail train.

Zarutska is seen wearing a baseball cap, sitting on the train in front of Brown as she scrolls on the phone before Brown pulls out a knife and stabs her from behind.

The two did not appear to have any interaction beforehand.

The footage doesn’t show the stabbing, cutting away to when Brown is seen walking on the light-rail line covered in blood.

Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, a Democrat, issued a statement on X on Saturday about the video showing the moments before the woman’s death.

“The video of the heartbreaking attack that took Iryna Zarutska’s life is now public. I want to thank our media partners and community members who have chosen not to repost or share the footage out of respect for Iryna’s family,” Lyles wrote.

“This was a senseless and tragic loss. My prayers remain with her loved ones as they continue to grieve through an unimaginable time.”

Brown was arrested at the scene and charged with first-degree murder, officials said in a statement last month. Court records show he had cycled through the criminal justice system for more than a decade, with 14 prior cases in Mecklenburg County, including serving five years for robbery with a dangerous weapon.

On Monday, Duffy said his office would conduct an investigation into the issue, warning that his department could withhold funding to municipalities if public safety isn’t made a priority.

“Your federal tax dollars go to fund a lot of these transit systems across the country,” Duffy told Fox News in an interview on Monday.

“And we have to look at them and say, ‘Well, maybe it’s appropriate that we start pulling some of that money back because I don’t think the American taxpayer wants to pay for the homelessness and criminal element that harm little 23-year-old girls like this who are going home from work.’”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 15:05

Government Accidentally Reveals Someone Inside Twitter Fabricated 'Gotcha' Accounts To Frame Conservative Firebrand

Government Accidentally Reveals Someone Inside Twitter Fabricated 'Gotcha' Accounts To Frame Conservative Firebrand

Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge,

The Truth Has No Agenda

Everything that preceded the 2020 federal election was a complex system of control by a network of ideologues, federal agencies, allies in the private sector, financial stakeholders and corrupt interests all working toward a common goal.

There’s no need to go through the background of how the election was manipulated and how the government and private sector, specifically social media, worked to influence the 2020 outcome because you have all seen it.

Whether it was local election officials working to control outcomes, federal agencies working to support them (CISA, FBI, DHS), financial interests working to fund them (Zuckerberg et al), or social media platforms controlling the visible content and discussion (Twitter Files, Google, Facebook etc.), the objective was all the same.  It was a massive one-sided operation against the freewill of the American voter.

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, those same system operators, govt officials, corporate media, private sector groups and social media platforms then circled the wagons to scatter the evidence of their conduct.  If you questioned anything you were a threat.  That’s the context to the dynamic that unfolded.

Lawfare operatives joined forces with Democrat staffers, and allies in social media platforms all worked in concert to target the voices of anyone who would rise in opposition to the corruption that was stunningly clear in the outcome of the election process.  Corporate media then labeled, isolated, ridiculed and marginalized anyone who dared to point out the obvious.

When AG Merrick Garland says this of January 6, 2021:

[…] “the Justice Department has conducted one of the largest, most complex, and most resource-intensive investigations in our history. We have worked to analyze massive amounts of physical and digital data. We have recovered devices, decrypted electronic messages, triangulated phones, and pored through tens of thousands of hours of video. We have also benefited from tens of thousands of tips we received from the public. Following these digital and physical footprints, we were able to identify hundreds of people.” {link} The targeting operation needs context.

Do you remember on April 27, 2024, when DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz said,

“more than 3.4 million search queries into the NSA database took place between Dec. 1st, 2020 and Nov. 30th, 2021, by government officials and/or contractors working on behalf of the federal government.”  The result was “more than 1 million searches of private documents and communication of Americans that were illegal and non-compliant,” and over “10,000 federal employees have access to that database.” {OIG Testimony}.

Put the statement from Garland together with the statement from Horowitz, and you get an understanding of what was done.

Hundreds of stakeholders in the Lawfare network joined forces with hundreds of people who became staff researchers for a weaponized Congress.  Hundreds more social media background agents then poured thousands of hours into feeding private information to the DOJ, FBI, J6 Committee and all of their hired staff working on the project.

How do I know?… …I was one of their targets.

Before telling the rest of the story, some background is needed.

I am well versed in the ways of the administrative state and the corrupt systems, institutions and silos that make up our weaponized government. I can (a) see them; (b) predict their activity; and (c) know where their traps and operations are located.

Traveling the deep investigative weeds of the administrative state eventually gives you a set of skills.  When people ask how the outlines on this website can seem so far ahead of the sunlight that eventually falls upon the outlined corruption, this is essentially why.  When you take these skills on the road, you learn to be a free-range scout, and after a long while you learn how to track the activity.

When I was outlining how the Fourth Branch of Government works and/or Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop and the DHS system operating inside it, I wasn’t shooting from the hip. However, people will always seek to dismiss the uncomfortable truth.

Sometimes you just have to wait for the evidence you know exists to surface, or for a situation to unfold that is driven by a self-fulfilling prophecy. The often uncomfy CTH predictions turn out to be the truth of the issue because they are based on the factual evidence of the issue.

That level of how the system works came in very handy when I received this subpoena from Chairman Bennie Thompson and the J6 Committee.  [Warning, things could get uncomfortable if you don’t accept the scale of corruption that exists.]

Pay attention to the red box on the page shown.

This is essentially the probable cause that justifies the subpoena itself. 

I have redacted a name in the box for reasons you will see that follow.

I was never in Washington DC on January 6, 2021, nor did I work with or communicate with anyone who was involved in any of the activities that were subject to the J6 committee investigative authority.

I’m going to skip a lot of background noise, irrelevant legal stuff, jurisdictional issues, discoveries from discussions with lawyers and the experience gained in association with this ridiculous subpoena.  Instead, I am going to focus on the biggest story within it.

Sticking to the information in the Red Box above, notice how the J6 committee has evidence, “public-source information and documents on file”, showing my participation, communication, and contact with people and technology that are material interests to the committee.

Here’s the kicker…. I had no clue what the hell they were talking about.

There’s not a single aspect of their outline that I had any knowledge or connection of.

I had no idea what Zello was. I had no idea who 1% watchdog might be. I had never heard of “Stop the Steal J6” or associated “channel.”  I had never heard of the person redacted, and I had never communicated with any Oath Keeper, any communication system, or platform, or anyone or anything – nothing – that is outlined in that subpoena.

Those points of evidence outlined in the subpoena had no connection to me at all.

The subpoena might as well have been asking me to appear in Michigan because my Red Ferrari was involved in a hit and run accident, during my trip to Detroit.

I don’t own a Ferrari; I have never been to Michigan; I certainly never had an accident; I wasn’t on a trip and have never visited Detroit.

The entire construct of their probable cause for the subpoena was silly. Complete and utter nonsense.

That said, how could there be “public records” and “documentary” evidence of something that never happened?

At first, I thought this was some silly case of mistaken identity and they just sent a subpoena to the wrong person. 

However, the investigators were adamant the evidence existed, and the need for testimony was required.

After taking advice from several smart people, and after discovering the costs associated with just the reply to the committee and/or representation therein; suddenly I realized there might be more value for me in this subpoena than the committee.  After all, how can there be public-records and documents that I own a red Ferrari and went to Michigan when I don’t and never did.

After several back and forths I discovered, through their admissions of their own research, and through documents they extracted as an outcome of their tasks to prove the merit of their claims, that someone *inside* Twitter had created a fictitious identity of me associated with the networks and communications as the investigators described them.

Think about what was discovered here.

Someone inside the Twitter platform, an employee of Twitter or a person who had the ability to access their administrative system (ie. FBI), had made a decision to target me.

As a result: (a) they had been doing this for a long time with a specific goal in mind; and (b) they created an elaborate trail of background activity and identity that was entirely fabricated.

Eventually, my assigned investigative unit admitted this. 

Think about it. 

How could they clear me, without them having the underlying evidence that proved my innocence?

Once, the federal investigators realized what took place they wanted to get rid of me -and my snark filled curiosity- with great urgency.  They also had an ‘oh shit’ moment, when they contemplated everything, including what they had revealed to me from the outset of my contact, now several months prior.

What I discovered in this experience was that DHS, and by extension DOJ/FBI and the January 6 investigators, had direct administrative level backdoors into all social media platforms.

Overlay the Twitter files now, and then expand your thinking…. Do you remember Elon Musk promising, several times, that he would provide end-to-end encryption on the Twitter Direct Messages?  Remember that?  It never happened, did it.  Why not?

In their quest to prove that I owned a Red Ferrari, traveled to Michigan and had a hit-and-run accident, these investigators outlined to me how the United States Government, through their DHS authority, has employees, agents and contractors with open portals into all social media platforms.

Yes, the federal government is inside the mechanics of the systems (Twitter, Facebook, Meta, Instagram, Google, YouTube, WhatsApp, Zello, etc) and they have administrative access in real time to monitor, review, extract and evaluate everything, soup-to-nuts.

It was only because the investigators and forensic data knuckleheads have these portals, that they were able to locate the source of the fabricated evidence they were originally attributing to me.  This was an investigative process and research discovery being conducted in the data processing systems of Twitter in real time as they questioned me.

Once they realized what had taken place, and as soon as I started asking how they were making these admissions (now carrying an apologetic certainty), suddenly the investigators wanted no further contact or communication with me.  You’re good, whoopsie daisy, our bad, sorry.

Now, take some time to fully digest and absorb what I have just shared.

The U.S. government is worried about TikTok, because U.S. citizen data might be extracted?

Meanwhile, the U.S. government, at a fully unrestricted administrative level, is inside Twitter, Facebook, Meta, Insta, YouTube etc., running amok and extracting anything – including private messages… and they’re somehow worried about protecting us from TikTok data collection.  Think about it.

Maybe the thing that worried them is not that administrators within TikTok were datamining; maybe, just maybe, the thing that really worried them is that they’re not the administrators.

Ears of an elephant, eyes of a mouse.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 14:25

Hamas Accuses Trump Of A Set-Up In Doha, After 5 Leaders Killed In Israeli Strike

Hamas Accuses Trump Of A Set-Up In Doha, After 5 Leaders Killed In Israeli Strike

Update(1355ET): Hamas has claimed in an official statement that Israel failed in its attempt to assassinate the group's negotiations team; however, it acknowledged that five of its members were killed in the Tuesday Israeli aerial attack on Doha, including the son of the group's chief negotiator Khalil Al-Hayya.

There's been some back-and-forth on whether the US greenlighted the operation ahead of time, but reports say the White House was informed once the operation had already been ordered by Netanyahu. Trump officials then quickly informed Qatar.

"Qatar, which condemned the attack, hosts America’s most important air base in the region as well as much of Hamas’s political leadership. It has been a key mediator in two years of talks to resolve the war in Gaza," The Wall Street Journal reports. "Israel informed the U.S. that the attack was coming, and the U.S. in turn notified Qatar, people familiar with the matter said."

There's been some speculation over whether Trump just did to Hamas what was done to Iran: lure them into thinking negotiations were happening, only to set them up for a brutal 'decapitation' air strike which no one expected.

The following were confirmed killed, base on the Hamas statement:

"We confirm the enemy's failure to assassinate our brothers in the negotiating delegation. However, a number of our martyred brothers have ascended to the highest ranks of glory, including: Martyr Jihad Labad (Abu Bilal) – Director of Dr. Khalil Al-Hayya's Office, Martyr Humam Al-Hayya (Abu Yahya) – Son of Dr. Khalil Al-Hayya, Martyr Abdullah Abdul Wahid (Abu Khalil) – Companion, Martyr Moamen Hassouna (Abu Omar) – Companion, Martyr Ahmed Al-Mamluk (Abu Malik) – Companion"

Hamas went on to say that the United States is responsible for the attack alongside the Israelis, and alleged a 'set up' of sorts.

Qatari officer killed... what did the US know in term of details and how far in advance?

"Targeting the negotiating delegation, as they discussed US President Donald Trump's latest proposal, confirms beyond doubt that Netanyahu and his government do not want to reach any agreement and are deliberately seeking to thwart all opportunities and thwart international efforts, disregarding the lives of their prisoners held by the resistance, the sovereignty of states, or the security and stability of the region," the US-designated terror group said. "We hold the US administration jointly responsible with the occupation for this crime," it added.

A number of journalists have agreed that it seems the Hamas team was intentionally lured to the targeted location in Doha...

The Israelis have reiterated that it will hunt down terrorists "anywhere in the world". Netanyahu has boasted that this paves the way for the war to end. Certainly, all prospects for peace talks are completely over.

And the White House reaction:

  • White House praises, kinda condemns Israel's bombing of Qatar, promises 'will not happen again'
  • Confirms Qatar was 'informed of impending attack'
  • 'Unilaterally bombing close ally of US...doesn't advance Israel-US goals However, eliminating Hamas worthy goal'

* * *

Multiple explosions have been reported in Doha, Qatar on Tuesday, according to eyewitnesses cited by Reuters. Initial reports suggest a missile strike or series of possible aerial strikes.

Axios journalist Barak Ravid, referencing Israeli officials, reported that the blasts were believed to be part of an assassination attempt targeting Hamas members. Netanyahu is really going gloves off at this point, it appears, and all negotiations seem definitively off.

"Israeli official tells me the explosion in Doha is an assassination attempt again Hamas officials," Axios' Ravid reports.

Could this be Hamas targeting the negotiating team, or other Hamas leaders who have long hid out in Qatar? It was apparently an Israeli aerial attack, which is going to outrage the Gulf states over the violation of airspace:

In the first official US comment on the attack, the American embassy in Doha says it has seen “reports of missile strikes occurring” in the Qatari capital.

Channel 12 is citing an Israeli official who says US President Trump gave the green light for the attack on Hamas leadership. There are emerging reports that that US and UK surveillance planes were in the air over the Gulf at the time of the strike.

The attack has resulted in the US Embassy in Doha issuing a shelter in place order for US citizens in the country. The UAE is also said to be furious over the attack. It has condemned the "treacherous" attack by Israel.

Israel Channel 12: Hamas Gaza leader Khalil al-Hayya was the primary target of the Israeli attack on Doha.

According to more confirmation via The Wall Street Journal:

The attack targeted Hamas leaders Khalil Al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin, one of the officials said. It wasn’t immediately clear whether anyone was killed in the attack or how it was carried out.

Defense Minister Israel Katz earlier warned Hamas leaders abroad that they would be “annihilated” if the group didn’t lay down its arms.

But Al Jazeera is reporting that Al-Hayya has survived the attack. "A Hamas source tells Al Jazeera that Israeli strikes targeted officials from the group who were meeting in Doha to discuss Trump’s ceasefire proposal," the regional outlet says. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has written on social media, "Terrorists have no and will have no immunity from the long arm of Israel anywhere in the world."

The actions sparked a surge in oil prices as geopolitical risk premia re-emerge...

OPEC+ will be pleased.

developing...

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 13:55

Stockman: Central Planning Is The Problem

Stockman: Central Planning Is The Problem

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

It seems damn obvious that neither Jay Powell, Donald Trump, the 12 geniuses on the FOMC, nor any other set of Washington apparatchiks should be setting interest rates. That’s a job tailor-made for millions of players on the free market without any help, nudges, guidance, or big fat thumb on the supply/demand scale by the central bank.

It also seems equally obvious that under the current post-1987 regime of Keynesian activism at the Fed that interest rates have been way too low for most of the past four decades. Indeed, the very idea that interest rates on the money market should be negative or even close to zero in real terms is an out-and-out recipe for inflation, both with respect to goods and services prices on Main Street and also, most especially, with respect to financial asset prices on Wall Street.

Yet here is what we have had since Alan Greenspan and his heirs and assigns embarked upon the path of heavy-duty Keynesian macro-management of the US economy. Since the year 2000, the inflation-adjusted money-market rate (i.e., Fed funds) has been negative—often deeply so—more than 80% of the time.

Accordingly, the implicit thrust of Fed policy has been to severely punish savers, who, after taxes and inflation, have been badly crushed, and reward borrowers and speculators. The latter have essentially been offered free money on a short-term basis to fund their leveraged speculations via rolling over the Fed’s cheap overnight money day after day for years running.

Indeed, Wall Street speculators literally loved the negative carry pictured in the graph below: It became the foundation for trillions upon trillions of easy, arbitrage profits in the futures and options market and via an endless variety of highly leveraged bespoke trading schemes.

Needless to say, the politicians on the banks of the Potomac were also enthusiastic about their resulting ability to borrow on a massive scale while still paying diminutive levels of annual interest on the soaring public debt. In fiscal terms, the Fed’s negative real rates were the equivalent of a free lunch.

Still, the opposite ends of this 40-year chart tell you all you need to know about why central bank interest rate pegging is both counter-productive and unnecessary. Thus, back in 1984-1987, the real Fed funds rate was clearly not too high at positive 3-5%. That’s because it was exactly during this five-year period that the ballyhooed “Morning in America” Reagan Boom occurred. Real growth averaged 4.8% per annum between 1983 and 1987.

Now, according to GOP orators, the Reagan Boom of 1983-1987 was the be-all-and-end-all of spectacular economic performance. So why in the hell did Jay Powell and his merry band of money-printers insist that the real Fed funds rate in Q3 2024 was too high at barely +2.0% and therefore warranted the 100 basis point rate cut it administered on the eve of the November election?

Moreover, at the present moment, the story is even worse. The Donald was pounding the table for a 300 basis point cut a few weeks ago when, during Q2 2025, the inflation-adjusted Fed funds rate had posted at just +1.27%. So what he apparently wants is a return to the inflationary Fed print-a-thons of the last several decades and to an implied inflation-adjusted Fed funds rate of, well, -2.27%.

That’s right. After more than two decades of inflationary money-printing, the real money market rate has barely peeked its nose above the zero bound per the graph above. Yet we have both of our wanna-be monetary central planners—Powell and Trump—in a public shouting match about how much to cut, how soon to cut, and what flakey excuse should be offered to justify it.

Well, the hell with both of them!

Neither can possibly know the “correct” overnight interest rate (i.e., Fed funds), to say nothing of the level and shape of the entire yield curve all the way out to 30-year bonds or even 50-year loan maturities. The right levels for all the interest rates along the entire yield curve are constantly on the move and shape-shifting at any moment in time owing to a blizzard of changing real-world conditions with respect to the supply and demand for funds, and the undulations of the underlying macro-economy.

Indeed, the very idea of administered or state-pegged interest rates is as unworkable, counter-productive, and absurd as each and every failed past experiment in wage, price, profit, and rent controls with respect to Main Street commerce in daily bread, shelter, clothing, and transit has shown. And most especially so when the far superior alternative of a vast, liquid free market in debt and all other forms of financial assets is readily available.

The reason we have administered interest rates rather than free market rates, of course, is due to the great big Keynesian bugaboo about financial instability, the oscillations of the business cycle, and the alleged grand collapse of capitalism during the Great Depression.

That is, the implicit claim is that unless we have an all-powerful interest rate Sherpa managing debt yields and the related economic activity, a free market in money, debt, real estate, and other financial assets will inexorably tumble into thundering instability and ultimately send the main street economy into depressionary collapse.

The truth is, this is unmitigated humbug. In the first place, it is obvious that the financial and economic instability we have had during the half-century since the dollar was unshackled from its anchor in gold in 1971 has been caused by the “start and stop” policy interventions and interest rate pegging cycles of the Fed itself, not the free market.

As shown in the graph below, once the 12-person FOMC took lock, stock, and barrel control of the nerve center of capitalism—the financial markets and asset prices— after August 1971, there have been eight recessions and short-run volatility of economic activity that has ranged from +35% to -35% on an annualized basis.

If we were in the betting business, we’d wager that left to his own devices, Mr. Market would likely generate less instability than the Fed-controlled economy has displayed since 1971.

If the volatility reduction and business cycle flattening canard doesn’t cut the mustard in terms of justifying the Fed’s interest rate-pegging regime, neither does the claim that it enhances the trend rate of real economic growth and living standard gains. The underlying presumption is that the free market is too stupid to discover the rate of interest that induces optimum growth, so a monetary politburo known as the FOMC needs to take control of the rate-setting process.

Well, here’s an empirical test that can’t be gainsaid. To wit, between the so-called Fed-Treasury agreement in March 1951 and August 1971, we had a gold-anchored monetary system and a Federal Reserve run with an exceedingly “light touch” by William McChesney Martin. By contrast, after the gamblers of Wall Street brought the credit, housing, and equity markets down with the thundering crash in the fall of 2008, we had a rogue regime of massive money-printing and incessant, heavy financial market intervention by the Fed under Bernanke and his successors.

There is no contest on the growth and prosperity front, however, between the two periods. Real growth as measured by real final sales of domestic product rose at a 3.83% annual rate during the “light touch” era of Q2 1951 to Q2 1971, while the growth rate was barely half of that level at 1.94% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2025. Q.E.D.

*  *  *

If decades of Fed meddling have taught us anything, it’s that central planning doesn’t stabilize the economy—it undermines it. The bigger risk ahead isn’t just bad policy, but the potential collapse of the dollar’s global reserve status and the desperate measures Washington may take in response. To prepare for what’s coming and protect yourself from the fallout, click here to claim your free copy of our Special Report: Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 13:45

Stellar 3Y Auction Blows Away Expectations With Huge Stop-Through, Near Record Foreign Demand, Record Low Dealers

Stellar 3Y Auction Blows Away Expectations With Huge Stop-Through, Near Record Foreign Demand, Record Low Dealers

With interest rates in freefall in recent days, but reversing modestly this morning, traders were wondering if today's auction of $58BN in 3 year paper would accentuate the modest reversal or extend on the positive momentum observed over the past week. The answer was resoundingly the latter, and here's why.

First, the auction stopped at high yield of 3.485%, down sharply from 3.669% last month, and the lowest since Sept 2024 when the Fed was about to cut rates by a jumbo 50bps on another huge downward jobs revision print. The auction stopped through the When Issued 3.492% by 0.7bps, and following 3 straight tailing auctions, was the biggest through since Feb 2025.

The bid to cover was an impressive 2.726%, up 20bps from August and the highest since February.

The internals were even more impressive, with Indirects taking down a near record 74.24%, up from 53.99% in August and the 2nd highest on record!

And with Directs awarded 17.39%, Dealers were left with just 8.37%, the lowest on record. 

Overall this was a blowout 3Y auction, easily one of the top 3 on record, and the bond market certainly liked it: with yields moving higher after today's record negative revision (on expecations of steepening that will follow the inflation that rate cuts usher in) we have seen renewed buying across the curve.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 13:29

"A Flashing Red Warning Light": Big Oil Is Making Big Job Cuts

"A Flashing Red Warning Light": Big Oil Is Making Big Job Cuts

Oil and gas producers worldwide are bracing for a prolonged downturn, with job losses and investment cuts spreading through the industry, according to a new report from Financial Times. ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and BP have all announced large-scale layoffs, while others are shelving or selling projects to conserve cash. “This isn’t just a Conoco problem,” said Kirk Edwards of Latigo Petroleum. “It’s a flashing red warning light for the entire US oil and gas industry.”

FT writes that the sector is under pressure as crude prices, which spiked after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have since dropped by half. Opec+ has shifted strategy, increasing output to regain market share, a move that adds further price strain. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie predict Brent could slide under $60 a barrel by early 2026 and stay there “up to a few years.” Below that level, western majors struggle to fund both shareholder payouts and new projects.

The cuts are hitting hardest in the US, where shale drilling requires around $65 a barrel to stay profitable, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve. ConocoPhillips has warned that as many as 3,250 staff may lose their jobs by Christmas, while Chevron has been working through 8,000 cuts since February. BP has already trimmed 4,700 positions. “The way we protect the most jobs for the most people is by remaining competitive,” said Chevron’s Mike Wirth.

State-owned producers are also retrenching: Saudi Aramco raised $10bn by selling part of its pipeline network, and Malaysia’s Petronas shed 5,000 jobs. Capital spending worldwide is forecast to fall 4.3% this year to $341.9bn — the first decline since 2020 — and US output is expected to contract for the first time since 2021.

Some companies are leaning on outsourcing and digital tools to offset the downturn. “AI is giving operators new ways to optimise in a challenging market,” said Andrew Gillick of Enverus. But industry veterans warn that shrinking investment may have long-term consequences. “Domestic oil producers are finding it hard… which is costing jobs,” said Roe Patterson of Marauder Capital. “The problem is that our domestic oil production may not be there when the country needs it in the future.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 13:25

Wall Street Giant Cantor Debuts Bitcoin Fund With Gold Insurance

Wall Street Giant Cantor Debuts Bitcoin Fund With Gold Insurance

Authored by Mat Di Salvo via Decrypt.com,

The fund will supposedly protect investors from Bitcoin's sometimes huge dips by using the precious metal...

  • Cantor Fitzgerald has debuted a new Bitcoin fund.

  • The fund also gives investors exposure to gold—for downside protection.

  • Gold rose to a record high near $3,680 on Monday, while BTC is trading about 9% off its all-time best, set last month.

Wall Street giant Cantor Fitzgerald debuted a new fund Monday that aims to give investors exposure to Bitcoin's gains and downside protection with gold. 

The fund, the Cantor Fitzgerald Gold Protected Bitcoin Fund, which was announced in May at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, aims to address the concerns of investors scared of Bitcoin

Monday's announcement said that the fund "minimizes the risk of short-term volatility and reduces the impact of correlation spikes while continuing to benefit from the long-term upside trend of Bitcoin." 

"This gold-protected Bitcoin strategy spans five years and tackles both risks head-on: it captures Bitcoin's upward trajectory while gold provides a safety net that historically performs well when markets decline," Global Head of Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management Bill Ferri said. 

He added:

"With risk assets at or near all-time highs, timing and protection matter."

Decrypt reached out to Cantor Fitzgerald for comment. 

Bitcoin, the largest and oldest digital asset, has in the past made massive gains but experienced huge drops throughout its 16 year history.

Bitcoin was recently trading at under $112,182, up about 1% over the past 24 hours and more than 20% year-to-date according to cryptocurrency markets data provider CoinGecko. But the leading cryptocurrency by market cap has fallen nearly 9% since reaching an all-time high of $124,128 last month. 

To be sure, experts recently told Decrypt that with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which institutions have flooded into, the asset should experience less volatility. The digital coin's volatility has significantly dampened this year. 

But during the last bull market of 2021, the asset hit a high of over $69,000 per coin only to plunge to under $16,000 the following year. The current up cycle has likely yet to see an end, many analysts believe. 

Cantor's Bitcoin lending business has carried out its first transactions, the investment banking giant announced on Tuesday, underscoring its increasing presence in the crypto space. Prime broker FalconX and crypto lending protocol Maple Finance were the first companies to draw on the financing. The New York-based Cantor, part of Cantor Fitzgerald, expects to make up to $2 billion in financing available in this first phase, the company said. “Early on, Cantor recognized the transformative impact...

Gold, the traditional save haven asset, hit a new high Monday near $3,680 per ounce and is up more than 37% year-to-date, amid ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy, inflation and other macroeconomic uncertainties.

Cantor was among the early, vocal Wall Street supporters of Bitcoin. The firm helps custody the Treasury reserves for stablecoin giant Tether's USDT stablecoin product. Its former chairman and CEO Howard Lutnick, an advisor to Donald Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign, is now U.S. Commerce Secretary.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 13:05

Nepal Descends Into Chaos After Social Media Ban, PM Resigns, Finance Minister Dragged Through Street

Nepal Descends Into Chaos After Social Media Ban, PM Resigns, Finance Minister Dragged Through Street

Chaos has descended on Nepal amid raging mass protests against a short-lived ban on social media, and accusations of widespread government corruption. The small Himalayan country has descended into hellish conditions in less than a mere 48 hours of raging anti-government demonstrations.

The protests appear mostly led by the young, after several popular social media sites were blocked and clashes with police led to authorities firing on crowds, resulting in 19 people dead. 

Attack on Nepalese communist party office Tuesday, via AP

But even after the social media ban was lifted amid the pressure and mayhem, demonstrators set fire to the homes of top Nepalese leaders and and even parliament building. 

Specifically Facebook, X, Instagram, and YouTube were blocked among some two dozen others, after the government said the companies failed to comply with local law by failing to register for requred government oversight.

Parliament burned and surrounded by thousands...

The airport was also shuttered and army helicopters were seen deployed to rescue government ministers from the mob. Apparently, the country's finance minister wasn't so lucky...

India Today: Nepal's Finance Minister Bishnu Prasad Paudel reportedly chased by protesters and kicked after a video showed him fleeing down a street.

According to reports, "Nepal's finance minister was chased and beaten by demonstrators Tuesday as Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned following days of violent student-led protests against corruption and a ban on social media."

Residents of top politicians in Kathmandu have been reported attacked and in some cases damaged or set on fire, including the prime minister of the country, KP Sharma Oli. He has since stepped down in the wake of the protester killings.

"Oli’s private home was among those set on fire, as were those of the president, home minister and the leader of the country’s largest party, Nepali Congress, which is part of the governing coalition," AP reports.

"Oli’s family was at the official residence at the time. The home of the leader of the opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) was also set ablaze," AP adds.

Clashes in the streets, via AP

The moment at which police opened fire on crowds was the tipping point. Even after the social media ban was reversed, the rioting became more intense.

“We are here to protest because our youths and friends are getting killed, we are here to see that justice is done and the present regime is ousted,” one eyewitness interviewed by international press outside the damaged parliament building said Tuesday. "K.P. Oli should be chased away."

A key part of what's driving the outrage related to the protests dubbed 'Gen Z' is that those killed by police were found to have been shot in the head and chest, according to hospital staff who received the dead and wounded.

One protester told the BBC, "Rather than the social media ban, I think everyone's focus is on corruption." She added, "We want our country back - we came to stop corruption."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 12:45

Why Billions In AI Investment Can Be A Pitfall For Some Companies

Why Billions In AI Investment Can Be A Pitfall For Some Companies

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The artificial intelligence (AI) gold rush has reached American businesses, but despite billions being spent, many companies aren’t seeing a return on their investment in the emerging technology.

Photo illustration of a phone screen with AI logo, on May 16, 2025. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

The United States is the world’s leading investor in AI technologies. Tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft have led the way in private sector investment and announced more than $100 billion in additional AI expenditures this year.

An analysis from CMS developer Storyblok noted that eCommerce businesses are spending, on average, nearly $400,000 on AI solutions for enhanced customer service experiences. However, only 32 percent reported even a “slight improvement” in operations resulting from their AI investment.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) published research showing that despite U.S. companies spending upwards of $40 billion on AI investments, 95 percent have seen zero monetary return.

The study found that only 5 percent of integrated AI pilot programs are producing millions of dollars worth of value. Businesses stuck in the start-up phase of integration suffer what AI developer and vice president of Vapor IO, Kamil Mansuri, called “magic wand” thinking.

“Companies stuck in pilot hell usually have three issues: unclear success metrics, trying to solve everything at once, and treating AI as the goal instead of the solution,” Mansuri told The Epoch Times.

Mansuri said the MIT study findings didn’t surprise him because, in his experience, companies tend to treat AI like a magic wand instead of a tool for specific problems. Mansuri said the best way to avoid this pitfall is to steer clear of what he called “vague AI transformation.”

“At Vapor IO, we saw real ROI [return on investment] because we targeted concrete use cases like infrastructure optimization and automated failover systems,” Mansuri said.

“The difference is focus …. We cut cloud spend from $1.5 [million] to $800,000 by using AI for resource optimization because we knew exactly what problem we were solving.”

Mansuri believes the key to monetary return on AI investments comes from starting small and choosing an area with a measurable impact.

“The companies seeing results pick one specific pain point, prove value there, then expand,” he said.

Trial and Error

Mansuri is among many trying to peel back the corporate hype to expose what lies behind the investment-returns gap: a disconnect between integration and workflows. The MIT report also pointed to a lack of feedback loops or a misalignment with individual business needs.

“We invested a significant amount of money in making use of AI at Ranko Media and, overall, replacing humans didn’t work at all. Enabling our team to produce more output is where we found the best ROI,” Nick Rubright, CEO of Ranko Media, told The Epoch Times.

“For example, we create lots of content for our clients ... We tried to automate content with AI, but the problem for us was that in GEO [generative search optimization] and SEO [search engine optimization], it’s winner-take-all. So we had to go back to leveraging human writers with real-world subject matter expertise because we needed to create content that would be competitive on the internet,” Rubright said.

A smartphone and a laptop displaying the logos of the artificial intelligence OpenAI research laboratory and ChatGPT robot, in Manta, near Turin, on Oct. 4, 2023. Marco Bertorello/AFP via Getty Images

He added that his company still uses AI to create content, but only the tools that are useful to his workforce and with the specific goal of expediting repetitive tasks.

By taking the focused integration versus human replacement approach, Rubright said AI has significantly improved his company’s content profitability.

“We make about 4x margin on content now, and the performance of that content has improved significantly across the board. I think it’s because humans have instinct from prior experience, but AI just sort of does what everyone else is doing and uses data, not experience,” he said.

Rubright also believes executives who view AI as a cheap replacement for human labor likely won’t see the returns they expect.

“There’s a lot of talk about AI being a human replacement, and lots of AI startups claim their tools can replace workers, but I’ve never found this to be true because these new tools still need management,” he said.

The phenomenon of high AI-tool adoption and low industry disruption rates is something the MIT report observed across 300 publicly disclosed AI projects, interviews with 52 organizations, and responses from 153 senior leaders at four key industry conferences.

So far, industries showing the most successful AI transformation include telecommunications and professional services.

The report also noted that established large language model AI programs such as ChatGPT have higher rates of successful corporate deployment than their custom-made counterparts. Many of the failed attempts to integrate custom AI tools into businesses were attributed to “brittle workflows, lack of contextual learning, and misalignment with day-to-day operations.”

Mansuri said he sees three main barriers come up regularly for companies struggling to get a return on their AI investment.

“First, data quality. You can’t build reliable AI on messy data. Companies rush to implement models without cleaning up their data infrastructure first. This is like trying to cook gourmet meals with spoiled ingredients,” he said.

The second one he noticed is unrealistic expectations at the executive level. Mansuri said many CEOs expect to see an “immediate transformation” after sinking money into AI technologies.

Finally, he said, many leadership teams try to retrofit existing roles instead of hiring people who actually understand both the tech and the business applications.

“You need engineers who can bridge the mercurial gap between cutting-edge AI capabilities and practical business value,” Mansuri said.

A software company’s booth is seen during the AI+Expo Special Competitive Studies Project in Washington on June 2, 2025. As AI technology advances, its use in company administrative work has become more common. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times Fixing Bottlenecks

Starting small and having clarity around what AI tools are being used for has helped many business owners steer clear of an investment sinkhole, experts said.

“We’ve seen tangible ROI from AI because we started small and applied it to specific bottlenecks rather than chasing a big project,” Eric Turney, president of custom product manufacturing firm The Monterey Company, told The Epoch Times.

Turney said his company uses AI to generate SEO-optimized content and streamline customer responses, which has significantly reduced their cost per lead and improved lead response times.

“Unlike companies that stall, we’ve turned AI into a revenue driver by tying it directly to measurable outcomes,” he said.

Nick Strada, the founder of ad agency Bruiser Creative, is also seeing a fast return on his AI investment because he put it into production immediately. It has paid for itself, even with big projects.

“AI tools aren’t lab toys, they’re embedded in workflows that affect both cost and revenue,” Strada told The Epoch Times.

He said on the cost side, automation through AI tools has saved money on labor hours with tasks such as parsing briefs, scraping campaign data, and generating research reports. In terms of revenue generation, Strada said his company is seeing returns there, too.

He used a recent example of when a client came to his company with a seemingly impossible schedule and modest budget, which AI was able to help solve.

“By combining human craft with AI-enhanced workflows, including image generation, scaling tools, [and] automated asset preparation, we produced work that reached Cannes Lions scale. That success generated new client opportunities and reinforced relationships,” he said.

Strada said reaping the rewards from smart AI investments isn’t a theoretical concept: “It shows up as reduced operational overhead, new project wins, and the ability to make ideas come to life in ways that were previously not possible.”

Turney said successful AI integration in a business requires clarity on its place within the company workflow.

In his experience, Turney has noticed “companies often overinvest in experimental tools or broad strategies, but fail to integrate AI into their daily operations with accountability effectively.”

He said another corporate pitfall is treating AI like a “magic bullet,” rather than continually refining its role.

Mansuri said the formula for successful AI investment is simple: Industries with clear, measurable processes see faster returns. For example, he said logistics and supply chain optimization manifest revenue quickly because route planning and inventory management have direct cost savings that can be measured in real-time.

Alternatively, Mansuri said industries that are heavily regulated, such as health care, can take longer to show returns on AI investment.

“Industries with quantifiable processes and clear success metrics see faster ROI than those with subjective or heavily regulated outcomes,” Mansuri said.

In a March report, Morgan Stanley noted many company executives are optimistic about seeing a return on their AI investments amid rosy forecasts of hundreds of millions in profit gains over the next few years.

However, the investment bank tempered this enthusiasm by acknowledging that AI-investments with long-run payoff are challenging to identify.

“AI adopters are already outperforming the broader market,” Andrew Pauker, a director at Morgan Stanley Equity Research, said in a statement.

“Companies discussing AI adoption have been rewarded in fourth-quarter earnings.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 12:25

The Mark Of Kaine: How A Senator's Remarks Border On Constitutional Blasphemy

The Mark Of Kaine: How A Senator's Remarks Border On Constitutional Blasphemy

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) this week warned the American people that a Trump nominee for a State Department position was an extremist, cut from the same cloth as the Iranian mullahs and religious extremists.

Riley Barnes, nominated to serve as assistant secretary of State for democracy, human rights and labor, revealed his dangerous proclivities to Kaine in his opening statement when he said that “all men are created equal because our rights come from God, our creator; not from our laws, not from our governments.”

It was a line that should be familiar to any citizen — virtually ripped from the Declaration of Independence, our founding document that is about to celebrate its 250th anniversary.

Yet Kaine offered a very surprising response in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.

“The notion that rights don’t come from laws and don’t come from the government, but come from the Creator — that’s what the Iranian government believes,” he said.

“It’s a theocratic regime that bases its rule on Shia (sic) law and targets Sunnis, Bahá’ís, Jews, Christians, and other religious minorities. They do it because they believe that they understand what natural rights are from their Creator. So, the statement that our rights do not come from our laws or our governments is extremely troubling.”

The idea that laws “come from the government” is the basis of what is called “legal positivism,” which holds that the legitimacy and authority of laws are not based on God or natural law but rather legislation and court decisions.

In my forthcoming book celebrating the 250th anniversary, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I detail how the Declaration of Independence (and our nation as a whole) was founded on a deep belief in natural laws coming from our Creator, not government.

That view is captured in the Declaration, which states, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

Kaine represents Virginia, the state that played such a critical role in those very principles that he now associates with religious fanatics and terrorists.

In fact, Kaine’s view did exist at the founding — and it was rejected. Alexander Hamilton wrote that “The sacred rights of mankind are not to be rummaged for among old parchments or musty records. They are written, as with a sunbeam, in the whole volume of human nature, by the hand of the Divinity itself, and can never be erased or obscured by mortal power.”

Although the Framers were clear, Kaine seemed hopelessly confused. He later insisted that “I’m a strong believer in natural rights, but I have a feeling if we were to have a debate about natural rights in the room and put people around the table with different religious traditions, there would be some significant differences in the definitions of those natural rights.”

This country was founded on core, shared principles of natural law, including a deep commitment to individual rights against the government. The government was not the source but the scourge of individual rights.

This belief in preexisting rights was based on such Enlightenment philosophers as John Locke who believed that, even at the beginning when no society existed, there was law, “The state of nature has a law of nature to govern it, which obliges every one,” he wrote. “And reason, which is that law, teaches all mankind.”

Note that a natural law can also be based on a view of the inherent rights of human beings — a view of those rights needed to be fully human. Like divinely ordained rights, these are rights (such as free speech) that belong to all humans, regardless of the whim or want of a given government. They are still not “rights [that] come from our laws or our governments.”

The danger of legal positivism is that what government giveth, government can take away. Our prized unalienable rights become entirely alienable if they are merely the product of legislatures and courts.

It also means that constitutional protections or even the constitutional system itself is discardable, like out-of-fashion tricorn hats. As discussed in the book, a new generation of Jacobins is rising on the American left, challenging our constitutional traditions. Commentator Jennifer Szalai has denounced what she called “Constitution worship” and argued that “Americans have long assumed that the Constitution could save us. A growing chorus now wonders whether we need to be saved from it.”

That chorus includes establishment figures such as Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the Berkeley Law School and author of “No Democracy Lasts Forever: How the Constitution Threatens the United States.”

Other law professors, such as Ryan D. Doerfler of Harvard and Samuel Moyn of Yale, have called for the nation to “reclaim America from constitutionalism.”

That “reclamation” is easier if our rights are based not in natural law, but rather in the evolving priorities of lawmakers like Kaine. Protections then become not the manifestations of human rights, but of rights invented by humans.

Kaine’s view — that advocates of natural law are no different from mullahs applying Sharia law — is not just ill-informed but would have been considered by the founders as constitutionally blasphemous.

He is, regrettably, the embodiment of a new crisis of faith in the foundations of our republic on the very eve of its 250th anniversary. This is a crisis of faith not just in our Constitution, but in each other as human beings “endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights.”

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and a best-selling author whose forthcoming“Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution” explores the foundations and the future of American democracy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 10:25

BLS About To Announce Another Huge Payrolls Revision: Here's What To Expect

BLS About To Announce Another Huge Payrolls Revision: Here's What To Expect

Two weeks after we first warned readers to "Brace For Another Huge Negative Payrolls Revision, Greenlighting A 50bps September Rate Cut", first Bloomberg and then Reuters... 

... both jumped on the bandwagon.

So for those who did not read our long-form preview of what to expect today at 10am ET - in a nutshell one should expect another huge negative revision to benchmark jobs, potentially as big as 1 million which would make it the biggest on record - here courtesy of Newsquawk is a quick and dirty primer on what to expect.

The BLS will release the preliminary 2025 benchmark revisions to the establishment survey at 10:00EDT on September 9th, 2025.

The final revisions will follow in February 2026, alongside the January employment situation report. Each year, establishment survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March, derived from state unemployment insurance (Ul) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. Bank of America notes that the preliminary estimate is based on QCEW data covering April 2024-March 2025. Importantly, the September release will provide only the implied revision to the March 2025 level of payrolls, with no historical data yet updated.

The Bloomberg consensus shows analysts expected a print of -682k, with estimates ranging between -250k and -900k. For context, the March 2024 nonfarm employment level was ultimately revised down by -598k in the final benchmark, compared with a preliminary estimate of-818k. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Waller warned he expects the prelim revisions will show that monthly job creation will be reduced by an average of 60k a month, indicating a 720k downward revision on an annualized basis.

Bank of America expects a downward revision of 500k to 1mln, implying that payrolls as of March 2025 may have been overstated by 40k-85k per month on average over the April 2024-March 2025 period. BofA also highlights that revisions for April-December 2025, which matter most for the Fed, will only be available with the final benchmark in February 2026.

* * * 

As described in late August, ZeroHedge certainly expects another major negative revision, potentially as large as 1 million..

... which the Trump admin will blame the Obama admin on as part of the ongoing kitchen sinking effort to realign jobs far lower to greenlight a major rate cut by Powell...

... only to reboot the labor market some time in November at which point jobs will start ramping higher ahead of the 2026 midterms. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 09:54

Sacre Bleu Monday

Sacre Bleu Monday

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As expected, the French government collapsed yesterday, leaving the country in political chaos just as it needs to deal with massive economic and national security challenges. President Macron has ruled out a snap election. (See here for our pre-confidence vote take.)

As is the way of markets --albeit helped by directionality from the US-- French bond yields were lower on the day. However, markets and realpolitik have not communicated in recent years: is the second largest economy in Europe, and the only one with a nuclear trifecta, looking unable to deal with its fiscal deficit, and perhaps ungovernable, something that can be easily shrugged off?

Le Figaro English recently noted: ‘“Prices Have Literally Exploded”: Have French Restaurateurs Been Too Gluttonous for Their Own Good?”, noting “Empty terraces, silent dining rooms… Despite the heatwave, this summer has been a cold shower for restaurateurs. While the tourist season is in full swing, cafés, bistros and traditional inns are being shunned by the French.” Is this not perhaps tiptoeing towards ‘Let them eat cake’ territory?

Now ex-French PM Bayrou warned just before losing the vote, “Don’t become the UK”, and there the mood remains febrile regardless of Labour’s huge parliamentary majority. The anti-Labour Daily Mail notes ‘Desperate Starmer accused of the 'mother of all stitch-ups' and trying to 'fix' Labour's deputy leadership contest by giving hopefuls just THREE DAYS to get the backing of 80 MPs’. The pro-Labour Guardian says: ‘Revealed: how Boris Johnson traded PM contacts for global business deals’ (Guardian), including being paid £240,000 just after meeting Venezuelan President Maduro last year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the anti-establishment Reform Party continues to sit at the top of all opinion polls.

In the US, the Wall Street Journal reports that the ‘White House Prepares Report Critical of Statistics Agency’ and ‘The Renewed Bid to End Quarterly Earnings Reports’. What, no data and no quarterly higher/lower-than games? What is a capitalist to do?! Innovate and invest in physical capital? But who wants to do that when there are assets to speculate on?

Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened to punch FHFA Director Pulte in the face, with additional expletives. That likely burgeoned his reputation in some circles: the man who as a young trader broke the Bank of England for Soros in 1992 arguably now wants to break the international financial architecture, and in the US’ favour. While many in DM who don’t see it, those in EM do – albeit in exaggerated form.

Putin advisor Kobyakov just stated: “The US is now trying to rewrite the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets. Remember the size of their debt - $35 trillion. These two sectors --crypto and gold-- are essentially alternatives to the traditional global currency system. Washington’s actions in this area clearly highlight one of its main goals: to urgently address the declining trust in the dollar. As in the 1930s and the 1970s, the US plans to solve its financial problems at the world’s expense, this time by pushing everyone into the “crypto cloud.” Over time, once part of the US national debt is placed into stablecoins, Washington will devalue that debt. Put simply: they have a $35 trillion currency debt, they’ll move it into the crypto cloud, devalue it, and start from scratch. That’s the reality for those who are so enthusiastic about crypto.”

We recently wrote about the geopolitical implications of dollar stablecoins, while most of the market seems to only focus on the ‘buy all the things’ aspect of them.

That said, yesterday’s BRICS virtual summit saw its members appear wary of exacerbating any trade wars with the US: although that geopolitical grouping criticised US policies, it steered clear of any direct attacks on President Trump. That’s following Chinese trade data yesterday that saw exports to the US slump 33% y-o-y but total exports still rise 4.4% - somebody is buying a whole lot more: shipments to the EU were up 10.4%, to ASEAN 22.5% and to Africa 26%. That’s either a lot of transshipment for the US to deal with or a lot of deindustrialisation everywhere else, with unhappy politicians to follow in short order.

Japan is also looking to find another new PM who can deal with a similarly fractious parliament and worrying geopolitical backdrop with public debt more than twice as high as France. That’s as China called Australia (and, by proxy, Japan?) a “geopolitical puppet” for holding a security meeting with the Japanese alongside the recent military parade in Beijing.

More importantly, it’s as reports have it that the looming update to the US National Defence Strategy will see a focus on the homeland and the Western Hemisphere (read: the Monroe Doctrine) rather than a pivot from Europe to Asia.

If you are in Asia, get ready to be told to spend 5% of GDP on defence like Europe has: how you then finance that is your business, but you will be financing the new US factories that build the weapons you will be buying to defend yourself with. That’s as Indonesian President Prabowo removed his finance minister after street protests, risking more turmoil for that G20 economy, while Thailand’s new PM and finance minister --with a fiscal deficit of nearly 6% of GDP-- are seeing tourism groups call for cash coupons to be given to foreign visitors to spend in the hopes of boosting the economy. That’s how well things are going.

If you are working against US interests in Latin America, the tail risks are larger. Not only did the US recently blow up a Venezuelan drug-trafficking vessel in international waters, send a Naval flotilla there, and base 10 F-35 jets in Puerto Rico, but there are reports the White House is considering military strikes on narcotics facilities inside Venezuela. Which just happens to be a Russian, Chinese, and Iranian ally and very oil rich.

Not too far away, Argentina’s pro-US President Milei saw his party suffer a notable local election defeat in Buenos Aires, which unlike in Europe led to a real slump in both the peso and Argentinean bonds. In short, while DM might now look and act a lot more like EM, they can still get away with legacy DM FX and bond pricing… for now at least.

Indeed, while DM don’t really think about it, “because DM”, gold is at a fresh all-time high even as US yields decline. That’s as close to a “Down with this sort of thing” protest as you are going to get.

But back in the world of financial market commentary, Bloomberg, which neatly summarizes all its stories with AI, sees Shuli Ren recommend that due to AI rapidly replacing white collar jobs ahead, the only way readers can now avoid becoming future “peasants” is by investing thematically in tech to try to stay ahead.

Why does “Dennis! There’s some lovely filth down here!” suddenly spring to my mind? And why does ‘Do You Hear the People Sing?’ from Les Misérables? Both fit a Sacré bleu Monday and thoughts of a New Order.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 09:45

Futures, Yields Rise Ahead Of Another Huge Payrolls Revision

Futures, Yields Rise Ahead Of Another Huge Payrolls Revision

Futures are higher led by Tech as expectations of Fed rate cuts continued to drive gains, while Treasuries eased after a rally that pushed global bonds into bull-market territory ahead of what is set to be another huge negative benchmark revision to payrolls. As of 8:30am S&P futures are 0.1% higher, while Nasdaq futures gain 0.2% as Mag7 stocks see a muted bid with AVGO/NVDA leading Semis higher. Both Cyclicals and Defensives have caught a bid with Materials buoyed by the Anglo / Teck deal. The yield curve is bear steepening as 10Y yield rise by 2bps to 4.07%; the dollar slid for a third day, with the yen driving advances among major currencies on renewed signals of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Commodities are higher with broad-based strength across all 3 complex but notable increases in crude, natgas, coffee, and iron. Today’s macro data focus is on the NFP revision with BBG survey seeing a 700k negative revision to payrolls and the modest beat in the NFIB Small Business Optimism (100.8, vs Exp. 100.5) where the Hiring sub-index has been a leading indicator for future NFP prints.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks post modest gains (Nvidia +0.2%, Tesla +0.2%, Meta +0.4%, Microsoft +0.3%, Amazon -0.09%, Alphabet is flat, Apple -0.4%)..

  • Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) rises 5% after announcing it is ending its data center product over the coming three years and will move customers to its cloud platform.
  • Brighthouse Financial (BHF) is up 11% after the Financial Times reported that Aquarian Holdings is in late-stage talks with two Middle Eastern investors to finance a takeover of the life insurer.
  • Fox Corp. (FOXA) falls 4% and News Corp. (NWSA) declines 4% after Rupert Murdoch and his children resolved a messy family feud with a settlement that gives favored son Lachlan Murdoch broad control and ensures Fox News and the rest of the sprawling media empire retains its conservative slant.
  • Planet Labs (PL) is down 10% after after the company said it would offer $300 million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2030. The shares soared 48% in Monday’s regular session.
  • Nano Dimension Ltd. (NNDM) rises 2% after initiating a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value and named David S. Stehlin as its new chief executive officer, replacing Ofir Baharav.
  • Nebius (NBIS) jumps 54% after the AI-centric cloud platform company said it will provide Microsoft access to GPU infrastructure capacity at its new data center in Vineland, New Jersey, over five years.
  • Sable Offshore (SOC) falls 9% following news that Governor Gavin Newsom seeks to impose further restrictions on California’s offshore oil industry, a setback to Sable and its controversial project off the coast of Santa Barbara County.
  • Teck Resources Ltd.’s US-listed shares (TECK) climb 16% after Anglo American PLC agreed to acquire the Canadian miner for 1.3301 shares for each Teck share. Anglo will also pay its investors a $4.5 billion special dividend ahead of the combination. Anglo shares leaped 9.1% in London.
  • UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) rises 4% after saying it expects most of its Medicare Advantage members to be in highly rated plans that earn bonus payments next year, a boon for its health insurance business.

The S&P 500 and US bonds have been on a tear as traders increasingly stoked bets that the Fed will kick-off rate cuts this month. Despite clear cracks in the labor market, investors are wagering that the economy is still sufficiently robust to power corporate earnings. Swaps are pricing at least four quarter-point cuts by the time Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Some are betting that this year’s easing cycle could begin with a jumbo half-point cut this month as job-market weakness outweighs lingering inflation concerns.

As we first discussed two weeks ago, Tuesday’s revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics data for payrolls for the year through March are expected to reinforce the view of a US jobs slowdown. Later this week, the core consumer price index for August is projected to show an increase of 0.3% for a second month in a row, indicating that progress on reducing price pressures has stalled. 

The BLS figures “would be a big change in the job market narrative,” ING rates strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder wrote in a note. This “could fuel questions of why the Fed shouldn’t cut by 50 basis points this month.”

“This is a supportive combination for equity markets,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “We believe that AI demand is still strong and will continue to support earnings in the sector, pushing returns in the sector — and hence overall equity market performance — higher.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 posted modest gains as investors looked out for the next steps in France’s battle to repair its finances. Anglo American Plc rallied more than 9% after agreeing to a tie-up with Canada’s Teck Resources Ltd. Bonds weakened across the board. In France, bonds were little changed as President Emmanuel Macron started his search for a premier capable of steering a budget through a deeply fractured National Assembly. The continued lack of common ground has weighed on sentiment, driving up the country’s risk premium.

“No one was expecting a bloodbath on the markets today, it’s clear that the worst-case scenario of snap elections is not taking place, at least right now,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “So at the moment we’re muddling through, but with a spread with Germany that is at levels of the sovereign debt crisis of 2012.”

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced, as tech and Chinese property stocks climbed, and investors continued to eye prospects for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% to the highest since February 2021, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest boosts. Taiwan’s Taiex jumped more than 1% to a fresh record, and Korea’s Kospi touched a new high for the year. Indonesia led decliners after the nation’s finance minister was abruptly removed. “Further Fed rate cut bets are fueling positive sentiment in Asia today, especially in growth areas like tech that will rally in these conditions,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney. “In the near term, we can push higher and test record levels for Asian stocks, but may see some profit-taking across all markets ahead of key US inflation data.” Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index slipped as fiscal concerns mounted after after President Prabowo Subianto replaced Sri Mulyani Indrawati as finance minister. While Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, who is taking over the role, vowed to keep Indonesia fiscally healthy, Indrawati enjoyed widespread respect among global investors.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.2%. The Japanese yen rose 0.8% against the greenback, taking USD/JPY firmly below 147 after Bloomberg reported Bank of Japan officials are of the view that it may be possible to raise interest rates again this year regardless of domestic political instability. The Aussie dollar also outperforms, rising 0.4% as it benefits from higher iron ore prices.

In rates, treasuries declined, pushing US 10-year yields up 2 bps to 4.06%. Gilts and bunds are also in the red. French 10-year borrowing costs did rise above Italy’s for the first time, although this was down to technical reasons.

In commodities, Oil rose for a second day as investors weighed the prospect for softening demand after Saudi Arabia cut pricing for most of its grades. WTI crude futures rise 1% to near $62.90 a barrel. Spot gold is up almost $20 and flirting with a record. Iron ore climbed for a sixth day and headed for its highest close in more than six months on expectations that Chinese demand will gather momentum. Bitcoin rises 1% to around $113,000. 

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include French industrial production for July, the US NFIB small business optimism for August, and there’s the preliminary benchmark revision for US payrolls. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy, and BoE Deputy Governor Breeden.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
  • Russell 2000 mini little changed
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%
  • DAX -0.5%
  • CAC 40 little changed
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.06%
  • VIX +0.1 points at 15.2
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1196.41
  • euro little changed at $1.1765
  • WTI crude +1.2% at $63/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The level of U.S. employment for the 12 months through March could be slashed by as many as one million jobs when the government publishes its preliminary nonfarm payrolls benchmark estimate on Tuesday. The payrolls benchmark revision would come on the heels of news last Friday that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy shed jobs in June for the first time in 4-1/2 years. It would suggest the labor market was already struggling before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. RTRS
  • After two federal courts have found that many of the steep emergency tariffs imposed by Trump are illegal, if the Supreme Court rules that Trump did not have the authority to impose the tariffs, the U.S. government could be obligated to refund importers anywhere from $750 billion to $1 trillion, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned. This could potentially place upward pressure on yields. CNBC
  • South Korean companies have routinely used unsuitable visas for workers sent to the US to build multibillion dollar advanced manufacturing sites. The admission comes after dramatic raid last week by ICE at a battery plant being built by Hyundai and LG in Georgia, which led to the detention of 475 workers. White House officials warn more such immigration actions are being planned FT.
  • The world’s biggest oil and gas companies are cutting jobs, slashing costs, and scaling back investments at the fastest pace since the coronavirus market collapse, as execs brace for a prolonged period of lower crude prices. FT
  • Israel ordered Gaza City’s one million residents to leave in advance of a major military offensive. BBG
  • US Senate Banking panel to vote on Miran's Fed nomination on September 10th: BBG
  • White House is preparing a report critical on the Bureau of Labor Statistics: WSJ
  • Taiwan’s exports hit a record $58.5 billion in August, surging more than 34% from a year ago, boosted by strong tech demand and the AI boom despite new US tariffs. BBG
  • BOJ officials are of the view that it may be possible to raise the benchmark interest rate again this year regardless of domestic political instability, as economic conditions have developed in line with expectations. RTRS
  • Officials in Europe are considering potential sanctions against China for buying Russian oil. FT
  • A measure of France’s borrowing costs exceeded Italy’s for the first time in the euro zone’s history, signaling investor concerns. French PM Francois Bayrou will resign today. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

  • Japan's trade negotiator Akazawa said US tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars, will be lowered by September 16th, according to Reuters citing a post on X. However, Akazawa later commented that tariff discussions with the US are not fully resolved and that Japan must ensure the trade deal is carried out.
  • South Korea and the US are to resume working-level talks regarding tariffs, according to Yonhap
  • South Korea's presidential adviser said US trade negotiations are being delayed due to the issue of FX market impacts from the USD 350bln package and have asked the US to help find a solution to the capital market impact, while they told the US that they can't agree on terms similar to Japan's USD 550bln deal.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region failed to fully sustain the mildly positive handover from Wall St, with price action contained amid light fresh catalysts and as participants looked ahead to upcoming events, including inflation data scheduled in the next couple of days. ASX 200 was dragged lower with notable weakness in Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Financials, with sentiment also not helped by a deterioration in consumer confidence and mixed business surveys. Nikkei 225 initially rallied above the 44,000 levels to print a fresh record high, but then gradually faded its gains as political uncertainty lingered. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by outperformance in real estate and tech, with the former helped as China's MIIT pledged to accelerate breakthroughs in high-performance chip technology. Conversely, the mainland lagged amid lingering global frictions with EU officials reportedly discussing potential sanctions on China and other parties for the purchase of Russian energy, while Chinese President Xi recently took aim at a 'certain country' increasing trade war risks.

Top Asian News

  • BoJ reportedly sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation, via Bloomberg citing sources; likely to keep rates unchanged on September 19th. Sees steady progress towards the BoJ price target. Sees the US trade deal as removing some risks to growth. Some officials are even of the view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October.
  • Reuters sources report that while political uncertainty in Japan will not derail the BoJ's normalisation plan, it could impact the timing of the next hike; add, "BoJ does not need to hike in the midst of turbulence". "no rush...as long as it gets another rate hike done possibly by early next year".
  • Bank of Japan likely to slightly reduce purchases of super-long Japanese government bonds in Q4 2025, according to Reuters sources. BoJ to make final decision on 30 September, influenced by 20-year government bond auction on 17 September and market volatility in super-long JGB yields.
  • China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a briefing that China is to accelerate breakthroughs in high-performance chip technology and will guide 10-gigabit optical networks from pilot testing to deployment.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he will carefully consider the possibility when asked about entering the LDP leadership race, while he noted that Japan's economy is showing bright signs, but there is a need to support those suffering from rising prices, including food prices.
  • Japanese LDP politician Kono reiterated that if the BoJ delays rate hikes, it would boost inflation, and noted they need to fix a weak yen, so the BoJ needs to hike rates, while he added that a sales tax cut would increase the deficit, and said he is 'sleeping on' whether to run for LDP leadership.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened modestly firmer across the board, but now display a mixed picture, though with nothing really behind the slip in sentiment. European sectors opened with a strong positive bias, but as sentiment slipped, sectors are now mixed. Basic Resources tops the pile, boosted by gains in Anglo American (+10%); the Co. and Teck Resources (+10.3% pre-market) have merged to create a USD 50bln mining giant; the merger is expected to yield USD 800mln in annual synergies. Elsewhere, Banks and Media complete the top three; for the latter, UMG (+2.2%) boosts the sector after receiving a broker upgrade.

Top European News

FX

  • DXY edged higher through the European session shortly after printing session lows coming out of APAC hours, where for the most part DXY saw some relief from Monday's extension of post-NFP selling and as longer-dated US yields retreated. In terms of state-side news, the US Senate Banking panel is to vote on Miran's Fed nomination on September 10th, according to Bloomberg. Further, White House is preparing a report critical of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to WSJ. DXY resides in a 97.253-97.519 range.
  • EUR moves at the whim of the buck following initial choppiness coming out of Asian hours. In France, PM Bayrou lost in a landslide as expected, while President Macron is to name a new PM in the coming days, which may come after the September 10th strikes. The OAT-Bund spreads pushed wider after Bayrou’s defeat, though EUR/USD held steady. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1744-1.1780 band.
  • JPY firmed in European hours following source reports that the BoJ sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation, via Bloomberg citing sources, but likely to keep rates unchanged on September 19th. Some officials are even of the view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October. Earlier sources via Reuters noted that while political uncertainty in Japan will not derail the BoJ's normalisation plan, it could impact the timing of the next hike: "BoJ does not need to hike in the midst of turbulence". USD/JPY fell under its 50 DMA (147.42) to a 146.56 trough from a 147.56 session high.
  • GBP gained a firmer footing at the 1.3500 handle after G10 currencies generally took advantage of recent dollar selling, but with further upside limited amid light catalysts. Overnight, it was reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is to tell ministers to prioritise the fight against inflation in a Cabinet meeting today, according to FT, although this caused little immediate follow-through on exchange rates. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3544-1.3583 range, ahead of BoE's Breeden later.
  • Antipodeans are holding the positive bias seen in APAC hours as the pairs are kept afloat after a firmer PBoC reference rate setting, but with gains capped following weaker Australian consumer sentiment and mixed business surveys.
  • Norway's Labour Party government won re-election backed by four smaller parties, according to official results.

Fixed Income

  • A slightly softer start to the session for USTs, but only modestly so. Specifics light as we look to the BLS NFP benchmark revision report, an Apple event and then 3yr supply. Into this and mentioned supply USTs find themselves a little heavy, towards the lower end of a 113-11 to 113-19 band.
  • JGBs were on a gradual descent across the APAC session and into the European morning, initially in-fitting with the modest pullback seen in peers but then accelerating on fresh BoJ sources. Firstly, Reuters reported that political uncertainty will not derail the BoJ’s normalisation plan, but could impact the timing. However, this was followed by a Bloomberg source that the BoJ still sees some chance of hiking this year (markets imply 15bps of tightening by end-2025). Even more hawkishly, the source stated some officials are of the view that an October hike could be appropriate (+8bps implied by markets). The hawkish elements sent JGBs to a 136.73 trough, lower by near enough 50 ticks at worst.
  • OATs kicked off the day near enough unchanged to Monday’s close. With a small bout of pressure seen into the close as the French confidence vote hit just minutes before. However, as expected, the price reaction for OATs themselves has been fairly muted, due to the fall of Bayrou being very much priced in. One nuance on the reaction, but only really evident in the spread, was the slightly worse than expected vote split for him, as not all of the central alliance voted ‘for’ Bayrou. A nuance that perhaps explained the modest jump up in the OAT-Bund 10yr spread to 83.38bps this morning, eclipsing the 82.19bps peak that printed when Bayrou announced the vote. If the move continues, we look to the YTD peak at 88bps and then the 2024 peak of 90bps.
  • Bunds are softer, with the pressure of a comparable scale to that outlined in USTs above; pressure which came ahead of a double green line outing. The auction was fairly in-line and had limited impact on Bunds. At a 128.97 low, above Monday’s 128.91 base and towards the upper-end of Friday’s 128.51 to 129.20 band; i.e. similar price action to USTs, as outlined above.
  • Gilts echo the above. Down to 91.31 at worst but well clear of Monday’s 91.09 base and, like with Bunds and USTs, towards the upper end of a 90.65 to 91.31 range. Specifics for the UK a little light, supply was well received and lifted Gilts off worst levels and to a marginal new high at 91.48; though, the benchmark still languishes in the red by just under 10 ticks. That aside, we await a speech from Chancellor Reeves in the later part of the morning.

Commodities

  • Crude edges higher in rangebound trade after the prior day's fluctuations, whereby early gains due to OPEC+ and geopolitics were trimmed after Saudi Arabia lowered premiums for OSPs to Asia and North-West Europe. WTI currently resides in a 62.37-63.16/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.12-66.94/bbl range.
  • Precious metals are relatively rangebound trade amid light catalysts and head of risk events, with attention now on data releases, including the BLS prelim. benchmark revisions are scheduled today, followed by PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,628.48-3,659.43/oz after printing fresh record highs yet again.
  • Base metals lack firm direction with the price action contained within a tight range after the indecisive performance on Monday, and with newsflow light today. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,894.20-9,963.70 /t range at the time of writing.
  • Iraq sets October Basra medium crude official selling price to Asia at USD 1.35/bbl premium to Dubai average; Selling price for Europe set at -USD 2/bbl versus Dated Brent; Selling price to North and South America at -USD 1/bbl versus ASCI.
  • US Interior Secretary says they have the capacity to replace all Russian gas to Europe.
  • HSBC expects "OPEC+ to start unwinding 1.65mbd voluntary cuts from October"; HSBC maintains USD 65/bbl Brent forecast from Q4, with rising downside risks from rising market surplus.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israel conducted strikes in the vicinity of Syria's Homs, Palmyra and Latakia cities.
  • Downing Street spokesperson said Palestinian President Abbas welcomed UK PM Starmer's pledge to recognise a Palestinian state ahead of the UN General Assembly meeting later this month.
  • "Iranian government: The regime's leadership will decide to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty", via Al Arabiya.
  • Iran-IAEA agreement likely at Cairo talks, according to Tasnim News.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Ukraine is at risk of a shortage of air defence weapons after a US DoD review of military aid resulted in slower deliveries, according to officials cited by FT.

Geopolitics: Other

  • North Korea's leader Kim observed solid fuel engine tests and said it marks an important change to the nuclear force.
  • Chinese President Xi sent congratulations to North Korea's Kim on the founding anniversary, while it was separately reported that President Xi said China is ready to enhance strategic communication and maintain close cooperation with North Korea for regional and world peace, and development, according to Xinhua.

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00 am: Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 100.5, prior 100.3
  • 10:00 am: Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls revision Exp -700K, Last -818K

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The dominant theme in the markets over the past 24 hours has been the continued global bond rally. This has helped ease pressure on the latest French political crisis, which culminated last night in the government losing its confidence vote by 364 to 194. With the defeat having been widely anticipated, the market reaction was muted. But had the fixed income sell-off from earlier last week persisted, the outcome might have triggered a very different response.

According to President Macron’s office, he will nominate a new PM in the coming days. The new PM would then have to find a way to pass a budget for next year. With the far-right National Rally and the far-left France Unbowed calling for snap elections, this would likely require a PM that can keep the centre-left Socialists from voting against the budget, as well as keeping the current centre-right coalition on board. Yesterday’s result implied some cracks within the latter, with the 194 votes for the outgoing government being less than the 210 if all of Bayrou’s allies had voted in favour. Still, the overall sense is that both the centre-right and centre-left face incentives to avoid snap elections, and 10yr OAT-Bund spreads tightened slightly (-2.0bps) ahead of yesterday‘s vote. In a note last night, our economists discuss the key next steps to watch, including on the upcoming budget process (see here). There will be a lot of noise around France over the next few days as tomorrow brings a social media launched day of nationwide protest aimed at bringing the country to a standstill, Friday brings an update from Fitch, and a week on Thursday we have a union-organised day of regional and national strikes. So, a lot going on. 

Looking at the fixed income moves in detail, bonds gained across Europe with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.9ps), OATs (-4.0bps), BTPs (-3.3bps) and Gilts (-4.0bps) all moving lower. Treasury yields also moved lower across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.3bps) down to its lowest since September 2022, at just 3.49%. The 30yr Treasury yield (-6.7bps) hit a 4-month low of 4.69%. So that helped ease fears about the fiscal situation and means we’re a long way from where things stood last Wednesday, back when the 30yr yield was just a whisker beneath 5%.

The main driver was a continuation of the sentiment post payrolls with increasing confidence of rate cuts dominating the landscape. It's almost as if CPI on Thursday doesn't matter. On inflation, the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectation series inched up from 3.1% to 3.2% yesterday. However, the consumer expectation series showed that expectations of finding a new job fell to its lowest reading since that series began back in 2013. So that chimed with Friday’s jobs report, where the unemployment rate hit its highest in nearly 4 years, at 4.3%.

All that led to mounting confidence that the Fed would soon be cutting rates, with a growing probability placed on back-to-back rate cuts at the remaining three meetings this year. Indeed, the amount of cuts priced by December’s meeting went up +3.0bps on the day to 72bps by the close. So that would be just shy of the 75bps required to fully price in a rate cut at each meeting, and it’s the most rate cuts priced for 2025 since early May, back when there were still genuine recession fears swirling in the aftermath of Liberation Day. Another beneficiary were gold prices (+1.37%), as the prospect of more rate cuts saw them surge to a fresh record of $3,636/oz. It's up a further +0.34% higher overnight.  

This narrative of labor market weakness could well get further support today, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics are releasing their preliminary benchmark revision for payrolls at 10:00 Eastern Time. Basically, they do a big revision of the payroll numbers each year to benchmark it against the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). And although the final numbers don’t get published until March 2026, they announce the preliminary revisions beforehand, which will give us a better sense of how those are likely to move. In terms of today’s announcement, our US economists write that the latest QCEW from Q4 2024 suggests that the average monthly payroll gains over April 2024-March 2025 could be revised down by roughly 50-60k, from a starting point of 146k. So that would imply a lot less momentum in the labour market in the period running up to Liberation Day. But bear in mind this revision only goes up to March 2025, so whatever happens today, it isn’t going to add to our sense of where the labour market is right now. Note that Bessent suggested the annual revision might be around 800k, when speaking over the weekend. This averages 66.6k per month if his number is to be taken literally rather than just an approximate level for the press. 

For equities, the rate cutting narrative outweighed fears about an economic slowdown. So that led to a decent advance on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (+0.21%) closing less than a tenth of a percent from its record high, while the NASDAQ (+0.45%) hit a record high of its own. That said, defensive sectors struggled, leaving the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.04%) marginally lower. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.52%) moved higher, and France’s CAC 40 (+0.78%) put in a decent performance too ahead of the result of the confidence vote.

Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.11%) is leading gains, rallying for the sixth day, while the Hang Seng (+0.80%) is also trading notably higher, hitting its highest level since late 2021 despite paring gains above 1.5% earlier. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.11%) has also surrendered larger gains, dropping over a percentage point from its morning highs. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.60%), the CSI (-0.41%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.30%) are bucking the regional trend. S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.17%) futures are trading slightly higher.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include French industrial production for July, the US NFIB small business optimism for August, and there’s the preliminary benchmark revision for US payrolls. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy, and BoE Deputy Governor Breeden.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 - 08:36

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