The Real Ghost Of Halloween: Inflation

Data from the National Retail Federation shows that some $13 billion will be spent on Halloween in the United States this year, whether that’s in the form of nightmarish costumes, spooky decorations for the house or candy for trick-or-treaters.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, compared to 2023, this is an increase of about $1 billion, showing how consumer spending patterns are back on track after a comparatively quiet Halloween in the pandemic year of 2020 as well as in 2024.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Yet, while expenditure was up in 2025, it actually hasn't risen significantly when taking inflation into account. Halloween spending is expected to hit $13.1 billion in 2025, but adjusted for inflation, this is closer to 8.7 billion in 2009 dollars, about the same as in 2023.

While Halloween originated in Ireland, a highly commercialized and lucrative version of the tradition has been embraced in the U.S., with around seven in 10 adults saying they would be celebrating Halloween this year, whether that’s through dressing up, pumpkin carving or going out at trick-or-treating.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 18:50

Stark Irony: Iran Angrily Condemns Trump's Call To Resume US Nuclear Testing

In a stark irony, Iran has condemned and lashed out at President Trump's call to return the United States to nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other countries like Russia and China.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called out the move as both "regressive" and "irresponsible". Iran has of course remained under harsh and expansive US-led sanctions over its nuclear program, which has involved no warheads or other testing, and which Tehran has long insisted is only for peaceful nuclear energy purposes.

Iran has a serious ballistic missile arsenal. via AFP

"Having rebranded its ‘Department of Defense’ as the ‘Department of War,’ a nuclear-armed bully is resuming testing of atomic weapons," Araghchi wrote on X late Thursday.

"The same bully has been demonizing Iran’s peaceful nuclear program and threatening further strikes on our safeguarded nuclear facilities, all in blatant violation of international law," he said.

Trump's surprise announcement on Truth Social came earlier that same day just before meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

The has media widely assumed that Trump just ordered explosives tests of nuclear warheads, which hasn't been done by the US since 1992. But the reality is that Trump's wording was ambiguous enough to also mean simply the testing of nuclear delivery weapons and not detonating bombs themselves.

Moon of Alabama astutely points out that A Nuclear Delivery Vehicle Is Not A Nuclear War Head:

However Trumps next sentence is not about testing nuclear warheads. It is about testing of carrier systems that can deploy nuclear warheads.

Trump says: “Because of other countries testing programs,…”

No country has recently exploded a nuclear bomb or warhead for testing or other purposes. The last known nuclear test was done by North Korea in 2017.

It is important to distinguish between testing a carrier designed to deliver a nuclear war head and testing, i.e. exploding, the nuclear war head itself. A nuclear carrier can be a bomber, a land based (intercontinental) missile or a submarine based missile or torpedo.

Still, this is how the world is interpreting it, given The Washington Post and many others gave it precisely that meaning. But given Trump was aiming all of this at Russia to condemn its own tests within the last week of no less than two cutting-edge nuclear delivery weapons, the ambiguity is perhaps intentional and having its effect.

As for Iran, despite the June war and the at this point total and official end of the JCPOA, it is unlikely to give up its nuclear program. After being attacked by Israel and Washington, with its nuke sites heavily bombed, it likely feels more incentivized than ever to achieve nuclear weapons, or other capable WMD deterrent.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 17:20

Republicans Are Walking Into A Trap On Section 230 Repeal

Authored by Yael Ossowski via RealClearPolitics,

Among political conservatives, there is no hotter potato at the moment than the civil liability protections afforded by Section 230 to online operators. Unless Republicans learn to love it again and reject the censorship lawfare complex favored by Democrats, they risk dooming our tech leaders and everyone who uses their products to the sharks circling our legal system.

The twenty-six words tucked into the Communications Decency Act of 1996 shielded publishers from liability so they could host and moderate content and still allow a wide range of speech without fear of lawsuits. Since then, Section 230 has evolved to be one of the most powerful legal shields in the nation against civil litigation in U.S. courts. This gave the early digital economy the guardrails it needed to thrive by incentivizing creatives and disruptors to bring their big ideas to life.

Nothing ices a good idea like the fear of a lawsuit.

Yet, to be a rising star in the Republican Party today conveys some kind of fealty to the idea that Section 230 is antiquated – a relic of the early Internet that has outlasted its usefulness.

Last month, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) called on his colleagues to “fully repeal Section 230” to cut the knees of AI companies and thwart their LLM training models. “Open the courtroom doors. Allow people to sue who have their rights taken from them, including suing companies and actors and individuals who use AI,” said Hawley.

He’s joined in these efforts by fellow Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham and Marsha Blackburn, not to mention Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin and Amyâ?¯Klobuchar.

According to the Section 230 Legislation Tracker maintained by Lawfare and the Center on Technology Policy at UNC-Chapel Hill, there have already been 41 separate bills aimed at curbing some aspects of the law by both Democrats and Republicans in the last two sessions.

The principal motivation for Democrats, including former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, has always been to force censorship of social media platforms to stop “disinformation,” a pretext for muting opposing views. The coordination of Democratic officials pressuring platforms to censor, as revealed in the Twitter Files, proves this beyond dispute.

To highlight the irony, we should remember that President Donald Trump is not only the chief executive of the United States, but also the owner of a social media platform that currently enjoys broad Section 230 protections afforded to any online publisher.

A wish to cripple Section 230 means making Truth Social a target as much as YouTube or Instagram. We should harbor no illusions that right-leaning media publications, podcasters, and websites would be the first to be kneecapped in a post-Section 230 world. Can MAGA and the GOP swallow that pill?

In that scenario, it will be the millions of Americans who currently enjoy freedom of speech online that will lose out. It’s the tens of millions of Americans turning to AI tools to become more productive, create value, and build the next great economic engines of our time who will be harmed by dismantling Section 230.

If Republicans want to cement American dominance in technological innovation, they will have to abandon this devil’s dance on gutting Section 230 liability protections. This is a censorship trap laid by Democrats to benefit them once they return to power.

The premise of broad civil liability protection for platforms is a core principle that has and should be applied to producers across America’s innovative stack, whether it’s oil and gas firms fending off dubious climate cases or artificial intelligence firms building the tools that are the key to America’s present economic dominance.

For one, Republicans should follow the lead of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who has rightly intimated that Section 230 likely applies to AI chatbots where many Americans are now getting their information. Legislation to further clarify this would alleviate thousands of hours of courtroom battles and millions awarded to plaintiff attorneys, all too keen to make their millions suing AI companies.

Forcing platforms to spend their time fending off trial lawyers circling their offices will not only hasten censorship on American internet platforms, but it will also require it. There is no business model for online connection with liability protection removed.

If Section 230 falls and every online dispute is dragged into court, it won’t be Big Tech that pays the price – it will be Americans whose speech and livelihoods hang in the balance.

Yaël Ossowski is deputy director of the Consumer Choice Center, a global consumer advocacy group.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 17:00

After Prez Urges 'TRUMP CARD', Mike Johnson Warns Democrats Will Wreak Havoc If GOP Kills Filibuster

President Trump is pounding the table for Senate Republicans to “play their TRUMP CARD” - demanding they scrap the chamber’s 60-vote filibuster rule to push through a stopgap bill to end the government shutdown. But despite the former president’s fiery Truth Social post Thursday night, GOP senators - wary of detonating the so-called “nuclear option” - are crickets. 

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media on board Air Force One en route to the U.S., October 30, 2025. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Fresh off a trip to Asia, Trump said he faced questions overseas about why “powerful Republicans allowed” Democrats to shut down the government - and called on his party to act fast. “It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option - Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” he wrote.

Under current Senate rules, most legislation, including funding measures, requires 60 votes to advance. Republicans hold just 53 seats, and while a few Democrats have occasionally sided with them on procedural votes, others, like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), have defected in the opposite direction. That math leaves Trump’s call a political long shot.

Johnson’s caution: "If the shoe was on the other foot…"

At a Friday press conference, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) didn’t directly break with Trump but made clear he’s wary of tampering with one of the Senate’s oldest guardrails.

“The filibuster has traditionally been viewed as a very important safeguard,” Johnson said. “If the shoe was on the other foot, I don’t think our team would like it.”

Johnson warned that eliminating the rule could pave the way for Democrats to grant statehood to Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico - adding two likely Democratic senators - or ram through sweeping gun bans and other progressive priorities. He described Trump’s Truth Social broadside as “another expression of frustration, of the anger that has been felt, the anger by the President.”

Senate Republicans draw the line

Many Senate Republicans, especially veterans of the chamber, fear that once the filibuster is gone, there’s no going back. They say the rule forces both sides to seek compromise — and protects whichever party ends up in the minority.

“The filibuster forces us to find common ground in the Senate. Power changes hands, but principles shouldn’t,” Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) wrote Friday, calling himself a “firm no” on eliminating it.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) - who has made preserving the legislative filibuster a central part of his leadership - also isn’t budging. “Leader Thune’s position on the importance of the legislative filibuster is unchanged,” a spokesman said Friday.

Thune has already faced pressure from the right, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), to cave to Trump’s demands. But he and other Republicans insist that the short-term gain of reopening the government with a simple-majority vote isn’t worth the long-term fallout.

Even if Thune wanted to change course, he likely lacks the votes. Several Senate Republicans have said they won’t go along with any effort to end the 60-vote rule through the nuclear option — a parliamentary maneuver that lets the majority change Senate precedent with a simple majority.

Advocates of the move claim it could be narrowly written to apply only to spending bills. But critics warn that in practice, any change to the Senate’s precedents would effectively kill the filibuster for all legislation - opening the floodgates to one-party rule whenever control flips.

“It would be a drastic move for such a limited win as a stopgap spending bill,” one GOP aide told reporters.

Trump’s long-running feud with the filibuster

This isn’t the first time Trump has tried to “neuter” the filibuster. During his first term, he repeatedly urged then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to nuke it. McConnell, who made masterful use of the rule to stall Democratic priorities for years, refused.

Democrats, for their part, tried to kill the filibuster themselves in 2022 to pass election-law changes - but failed when Sens. Joe Manchin ( D-West VA) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) joined Republicans in opposition.

For now, Trump’s push appears to be more about political pressure than practical policy. Johnson and Senate GOP leaders are holding the line, warning that once the filibuster is gone, there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 16:40

Dark Tidings

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

". . . the fake news isn’t reporting on Operation Arctic Frost. It’s not that they’re trying to cover it up. . . but that they actually think it was totally normal and legitimate."

 - Hans Mahncke

Surely you’ve noticed in recent years just how gruesome the Halloween townscape has become with our competitive yard displays of giant skeletons, shrieking ghouls, corpses seeming to emerge from the crabgrass, and miscellaneous body parts strewn about the property. The symbolism seems pretty overt: America yearns to become a death cult.

The world has seen this before and it generally doesn’t end well. Something in their equivalent of the zeitgeist drove the Aztecs to sharply ramp-up the scale of their human sacrifices in the years just before Hernán Cortés came to their capital city, Tenochtitlán. Bernal Diaz, a foot-soldier in Cortés’s legion, later wrote:

“I remember that they had in a plaza, where there were some shrines, so many places of dead skulls, which could be counted, according to the concert as they were set, that when they appeared they would be more than one hundred thousand; and I say again about one hundred thousand. And in another part of the square were as many rows of bones without meat, bones of the dead, that could not be counted; and they had in many beams many heads hanging from one part to another. And keeping those bones and skulls were three priests, who, as we understood, were in charge of them. . . . “

Cortés had arrived in Mexico in April of 1519 with an expeditionary force of about 500 soldiers and by August of 1521, it was all over. He defeated the empire of a million Aztecs and commenced the systematic demolition of their monuments, including the horrifying great rack-of-skulls (tzompantli) where they displayed their thousands of trophies.

“Sculpture of the skull rack in the Zocolo, site of the great Aztec temple, Mexico City.

Something — more precisely, some cabal of somebodies — is attempting to systematically demolish the social scaffold of our country now. It can’t just be the Soros network of NGOs. The best we can do to identify the central animating agent is the Deep State or Blob, a malignancy within our own organs of national management. It’s shaping up as a kind of American Armageddon, a battle between the forces of darkness and light, death and life. The battle has been going on for at least ten years, since Mr. Trump invaded the body politic — rather like when Cortés entered Mexico and set off a chain of events that ended the cruel and despotic culture embedded there. We’re acting out something along those lines now.

The death cult is vividly on display in our time and place. Minneapolis is poised to elect the skeletal-looking Somali Omar Fateh as its next mayor. The once-emblematic city of Garrison’s Keillor’s “above average,” relentlessly “nice” prairie folk was wrecked in 2020 in tribute to BLM’s patron saint, George Floyd, and has never recovered, written off as a national sacrifice zone for the sake of diversity, equity, and inclusion. Omar Fateh styles himself as a “Democratic Socialist.” This is the next new thing.

Omar Fateh on Right

Likewise, New York City is about to elevate the Ugandan Marxist Jihadi (and self-styled Democratic Socialist) Zohran Mamdani into the top job at city hall. As usual with this brand of insurrectionists — that is, persons bent on destroying our society — the label is yet another language game meant to scramble your brain.

You have probably not failed to notice the incessant recital of the phrase “our democracy” by Democratic Party field marshals starting with “Joe Biden” in the final months of his, uh, late performance. “Our democracy” has nothing to do, really, with citizen participation in governance. The phrase is a cover for their desperate power-seeking — for instance, the “nomination” of Kamala Harris with zero democratic voting procedure — in the service of preserving a vast empire of rackets that siphon taxpayer dollars into multitudinous NGOs and countless government programs that provide jobs and free stuff to an ever-growing class of parasitic dependents in the party’s thrall.

So, the next ploy upcoming will be the sequel to the “No Kings” demos of recent months: “The Fall of the Trump Fascist Regime” mass protest event planned for Washington, DC, on November 5, following election day. The stated idea is to surround the White House with millions of shrieking “Resistance” warriors to exorcise President Trump. The unstated idea is to provoke the president to invoke the Insurrection Act and thus, supposedly, demonstrate that he is a tyrant to their satisfaction.

More likely, if things get out of hand and violence erupts, the Resistance warriors and their Antifa shock troops — sure to be on-hand — will only prove that they are the actual insurrectionists. In which case, this time, expect arrests and indictments of the folks behind the extravaganza, with the prospect of pretty harsh penalties. (Are you listening, Norm Eisen, Mary McCord, and friends?)

Meanwhile, the emerging scandal around the “Arctic Frost” scheme executed under “Joe Biden’s” DOJ to harass and persecute his admin’s political adversaries, takes shape as “worse than Watergate,” in the words of Senate Judiciary Committee chair Charles Grassley. Fresh evidence about this nefarious activity only reinforces the developing seditious conspiracy case that will be prosecuted out of the Southern District of Florida encompassing the entirety of treasonous acts from RussiaGate forward amounting to a long-running coup that never did manage to succeed, no matter how they keep at it.

Ghouls on display on East 71st Street in Manhattan today (Credit: Truman Verdun)

You know the names of most of the major players involved, and ever more members of the supporting cast, lodged in the Deep State, are being revealed daily. Think of them when you see the ghouls and skeletons on display in America’s yards this Halloween eve.

*  *  *

Saturday, November 1, is the official publication date for my new book, the novel Look I’m Gone, live on Amazon tomorrow. To celebrate, I offer readers an amusing excerpt from the book which you can find here at this link.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 16:20

Republicans' Surprising Performances In Key Governor Races

Authored by J.T. Young via RealClearPolitics,

Virginia’s and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races show the Republican candidates currently matching or beating Donald Trump’s past presidential margins. This is big for these state races and for gauging the overall country’s mood. It could be bigger still if it presages a Republican threat to Democrats’ “second blue wall” in 2026 and 2028.

In Virginia, the Republican, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, has been trailing the Democrat, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, by double digits as recently as the beginning of October. Before Republican Glenn Youngkin upset Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s bid for a second term in 2021, four of Virginia’s previous five governors had been Democrats. No Republican presidential candidate has won Virginia since 2004. 

In New Jersey, the Republican, former state representative Jack Ciattarelli, has been trailing the Democrat, former Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, by double digits as recently as the beginning of September. In presidential elections, no Republican has won New Jersey since 1988. 

Reasonable expectations would consider both states comfortable for Democrats in this year’s gubernatorial races: Neither state has been won by a Republican presidential candidate in over 20 years; this year’s Democrat gubernatorial candidates hold sizable leads; and off-year elections historically go against the party holding the presidency.   

However, polls have shown both races tightening dramatically in their final weeks.

Averaging the polls in RealClearPolitics’ list of gubernatorial races since mid-October, we get Democrat Spanberger with just a 6.9 percentage point lead in Virginia, and Democrat Sherrill with 4.6 percentage point lead in New Jersey. Democrats’ leads have been cut roughly in half in New Jersey and sharply reduced in Virginia.

While noteworthy on their own, these results are even more so when you look at how President Trump performed in these states. Over the last three presidential elections, Trump lost Virginia by an average of 6.9 percentage points. In 2024, Trump lost New Jersey by 5.9 percentage points; over the last three presidential elections, he lost New Jersey by an average of 11.6 percentage points.

In Virginia, Earle-Sears is matching Trump’s average over the last three presidential elections. In New Jersey, Ciattarelli is running ahead of President Trump’s 2024 margin and at less than half of Trump’s three-election deficit average there.    

This is remarkable for several reasons. For one, while much is made of Trump’s job approval being negative (45.3%-51.7% in RCP’s 10/23 national polling average), Trump’s favorability rating is higher at -8.3% than either the Republican Party’s (-12%) or the Democrat Party’s (-24.3%). Yet Republicans’ Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial candidates appear to be matching or outperforming them all. 

Democrats will excuse their gubernatorial candidates’ weakening positions on local issues that are sapping momentum late in these races. In Virginia, Spanberger is being hurt by fallout from the revelation of Democrat attorney general nominee Jay Jones’ violent texting and reckless driving conviction. In New Jersey, Sherrill has been hurt by her involvement in a cheating scandal while she was at the U.S. Naval Academy. 

Yet Trump, as Democrats constantly point out, is also a divisive figure who fails to rally all his base or appeal to moderates. In 2024, exit polling showed Trump losing 9% of conservatives and 58% of moderates. In other words, if the Democrat gubernatorial candidates are performing below the party’s potential, Trump too has also performed below his apparent potential. 

Looking to the 2026 and 2028 elections, there is a lot to glean from Republicans’ closing performances in Virginia and New Jersey. Both states are in the “second blue wall,” those states Democrats depend on to be presidentially competitive, but which Harris won by 10 percentage points or less (Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico: 50 electoral votes). Without these states and the seven swing states Harris lost in 2024, Democrats become irrelevant in presidential contests. 

Republicans are holding their own in the two biggest electoral vote states in this “second blue wall.” They are doing so without Donald Trump on the ballot (which helps them), yet with him in the White House (which hurts them). 

If Republicans are now matching or outperforming what Trump did in 2024 in these six states, it bodes well for them holding control of Congress in 2026. This would deny Democrats a platform for attacking Trump during his term’s last two years, something they vigorously did after the 2018 midterms. It bodes even better for Republicans’ chances in 2028 and for their nominee outperforming Trump, cementing control of the seven swing states and breaking into Democrats’ “second blue wall.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 15:45

"Chilling Opportunity" Theme Heats Up: Goldman Forecasts Liquid Cooling To Dominate Data Centers

Building on the "Chilling Opportunity" theme around data-center cooling and the rapid rise of liquid-cooling systems in AI server racks, Goldman analysts have raised their 2025-26 global server-cooling market estimates and introduced a new 2027 forecast, reflecting surging demand tied to the accelerating AI data center buildout.

Goldman analysts, led by Allen Chang, penned a note to clients on Thursday, highlighting that liquid-cooling adoption is rapidly accelerating across data centers amid growing demand for higher compute and the accompanying rise in power consumption.

Chang modeled liquid cooling penetration to reach 15% / 45% / 74% / 80% (2024–27E) for AI training servers, 1% / 15% / 17% / 20% for AI inferencing servers, and 0% / 4% / 6% / 8% for general and high-performance computing servers. 

Since Chang's July 2025 report, he raised his Global Server Cooling TAM forecasts by +9% for 2025 and +16% for 2026, to $7.9 billion and $14.0 billion, representing +111% and +77% year-over-year growth, respectively, noting that the upward revision is mostly because of stronger demand for high-power AI servers. It's very simple: more power equals more compute, which means more liquid cooling.  

AI Training Servers: Liquid cooling to penetrate quickly

Chang's note builds on the chilling opportunity theme:

• UBS Finds "Chilling Opportunity" In Data Center Cooling

• "Quick" Rise Of Liquid-Cooling At AI Data Centers Signals A "Chilling Opportunity"

• Vertiv Drops After Amazon Unveils In-House Liquid Cooling System, Marking Pivot To Liquid

UBS analyst Joshua Spector showed clients in June a roadmap through 2035 illustrating how AI server rack power consumption could surge to as much as 1,000 kilowatts per unit, compared with legacy servers currently running between 10 and 60 kilowatts, and first-generation AI servers consuming around 80 to 140 kilowatts.

More compute equals more power ... and by now, you know what that means: higher demand for liquid cooling. 

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can view the full note in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 15:25

Bessent: China "Made A Real Mistake" By Threatening To Curb Rare Earth Exports

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent says Beijing “made a real mistake” by threatening to curb rare earth exports, according to a new report from Financial Times. 

Bessent told Financial Times in a new interview that the US will secure alternative supplies within “12 to 24 months” and also said of China's threat: “China has alerted everyone to the danger. They’ve made a real mistake. It’s one thing to put the gun on the table. It’s another thing to fire shots in the air.”

Bessent spoke after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea, saying the two leaders had found an “equilibrium” in their trade relationship. Despite recent disruptions triggered by China’s rare earths controls, he believes Beijing can no longer use these minerals as leverage: “I don’t think they’re able to do it now because we have offsetting measures.”

FT writes that the summit followed months of heightened tariffs and retaliatory export restrictions. According to Bessent, Chinese officials were “slightly alarmed by the global backlash” to their latest measures. He said his talks with vice-premier He Lifeng helped preserve a one-year truce: “ceteris paribus, we have reached an equilibrium”.

Bessent described a respectful and pragmatic tone between Trump and Xi, including a lighter exchange about the timing of a potential Beijing visit: “‘It’s very cold in January and February, why don’t we push it back to April?’”

Under the agreement, China will delay its rare earth policy, boost US soybean purchases and permit US control of TikTok. On TikTok, Bessent said: “Everything’s ironed out … we should see a transaction very soon.” The US will postpone blacklisting thousands of Chinese entities, while Trump will cut some fentanyl-related tariffs in return for a crackdown on precursor chemicals. “Fentanyl occupied a lot of the discussion,” he noted.

Bessent rejected the idea that Washington can no longer push for structural reform in China. He argued that US tariffs have diverted Chinese exports to other developed markets: “We’ve set a standard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the rest of the world doesn’t follow.”

Highlighting US advantages — from “the world’s premier military” to leadership in technology — he said Trump is “cementing and expanding these strengths, and the Chinese know this.”

Bessent expects the deal to hold: “There will naturally be some bumps . . . but I think we have much better communication channels now.”

The Trump administration has made reshoring manufacturing and securing critical materials a central priority, arguing the US became dangerously dependent on foreign supply chains — particularly China. Through tariffs, investment incentives, and stricter controls on technology transfers, the administration has tried to push companies to relocate production of vital goods such as semiconductors, electric-vehicle components and defence materials back to the US or friendly allies.

As we have documented on Zero Hedge, rare earth minerals — crucial for electronics, batteries and advanced weaponry — have been a major focus. After China signaled willingness to restrict access, the administration accelerated efforts to develop domestic mining and processing, diversify suppliers, and build strategic reserves. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 14:05

Chinese Companies Are Betting That The Trump-Xi Truce Will Not Last

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The ECB’s policy decision did not spook markets yesterday. The deposit rate was left at 2% for the third time in a row. Only limited new information had come out since September, and therefore policymakers saw no reason to adjust their policy stance when they also deemed this unnecessary last month.

Looking ahead, Lagarde left all options open, but the ECB president did conclude that downside risks have lessened somewhat. We would add that the doves’ case for another rate cut in December is too.

In September, the ECB had already concluded that the risks to the economic outlook had become more balanced. Yesterday, Lagarde noted that the EU-US trade deal, the ceasefire in the Middle East, and the US-China agreement that was announced shortly before the ECB’s decision “have mitigated some of the downside risks.”

These risks haven’t disappeared completely, though. The agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi sounded more like another short-term ceasefire than a path towards something more long-term. Bloomberg reports that Chinese companies are betting that the truce will not last.

Beijing will not tighten its export restrictions on critical minerals for a year, and China will buy “large amounts” of US soybeans. Trump declared it a big victory. According to the US president, the two countries have settled their differences and there is now “no roadblock at all on rare earth.” However, as we read it, China has agreed to pause additional restrictions on rare earth exports; not to roll back existing export controls. So, industry shortages may not disappear as quickly as Trump expects.

On paper, the deal gives markets a year of respite. But that hardly seems enough for the US (and Europe!) to secure their own, parallel, supply chains for these minerals – even as Chinese export restrictions lead to more coordination among the West. The G7 energy ministers agreed to launch a Critical Minerals Production Alliance that will “secure transparent, democratic, and sustainable critical mineral supply chains across the G7.” So far there are few details, but this initiative was undoubtedly given fresh impetus following China’s decision last month.

This new alliance comes on top of national initiatives. The US government is actively taking stakes in companies involved in critical minerals. And earlier this week, EC President Von der Leyen announced a RESourceEU plan that comes on top of Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Act. Nonetheless, reducing the dependence on China is something that will take considerable time.

Until that day, the US may still feel that China is squeezing some of these supply chains. Again, yesterday’s deal does not require China to accelerate its exports from the current drip feed. So, a new escalation could come back to haunt markets earlier than expected. But as long as the US remains reliant on Chinese supplies of critical minerals, Xi holds a trump card.

This week’s deal illustrates that well. Trump touted it as a big win, but the US president did make quite a few concessions in return. Import tariffs on Chinese goods will be lowered and additional port fees on Chinese ships will be rolled back. The US will also roll back changes in the entity list, which imposed trade sanctions on companies that are at least 50% owned by a Chinese entity.

Despite these delays, some of the damage may already be done. These changes to the US sanctions list were arguably part of the reason for the Dutch government to cease control of a chipmaker, leading to a fallout between the EU and China. In response, Beijing blocked the export of Nexperia’s chips that are made in China. That has the global auto industry scared for chip shortages.

In short, trade tensions and geopolitical risks remain. But so far, these have not affected the Eurozone economy as much as feared. The economy expanded 0.2% q/q in the third quarter, beating expectations of near-stagnation. The Eurozone economy has thus shown greater resilience to the US trade war than we had anticipated, but we believe that the full impact of the tariffs has yet to materialise in the coming quarters.

Over the medium term, domestic demand remains a key driver of growth in the euro area – and that may actually be partly instigated by shifts in global trade and geopolitics. Capital investments in France and Germany picked up, while the Netherlands reported stronger exports of machinery and equipment – is this a sign that Europe is shifting to more local purchases?

On that note, Germany is reportedly considering paying telecom operators to replace Chinese equipment in their networks with alternatives.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 13:45

Ex-FBI Chief James Comey Seeks Dismissal of Indictment

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Lawyers for Former FBI Director James Comey have asked the court to dismiss two federal charges filed against him over his alleged false statements to Congress in 2020, arguing that his testimony was truthful.

In a motion filed, Comey’s lawyers argued that Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) questions could not form the basis for his indictment because they were “fundamentally ambiguous” and that Comey’s answers to his questions were “literally true” and therefore cannot sustain a conviction.

His lawyers argued that the questions posed by Cruz, which prompted Comey’s alleged false testimony during the Senate Judiciary Committee in 2020, were lengthy and confusing, according to the legal filing.

“Specifically, after speaking for more than a minute, Senator Ted Cruz asked Mr. Comey to recall statements he had made three years earlier and to simultaneously address statements that Senator Cruz incorrectly claimed were made by Andrew McCabe, the former Deputy Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI),” the motion stated.

“In doing so, Senator Cruz never indicated that he wanted Mr. Comey to address the statements or activities of any person except for McCabe.”

Comey’s lawyers argued that while the government has the authority to prosecute witnesses who misled investigators by giving materially false answers to clear questions, it cannot “create confusion by posing an imprecise question and then seek to exploit that confusion by placing an after-the-fact nefarious interpretation on the ensuing benign answer.”

“Indeed, basic due process principles in criminal law require that the questioner frame his questions with clarity so that a witness does not have to guess,” the lawyers stated in the motion.

“Fundamental to any false statement charge are both clear questions and false answers. Neither exists here.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

The DOJ charged Comey in September with one count of making a false statement to Congress and one count of obstruction in a criminal case, which carry potential prison time.

Comey also filed two additional motions on Oct. 20, alleging that the Trump administration brought a vindictive and selective prosecution and relied on an illegally appointed prosecutor.

The motions alleged that President Donald Trump sought to bring a case against one of his political opponents after multiple investigations, even though prosecutors previously said there was insufficient evidence. Comey argued that in allegedly doing so, the Trump administration violated multiple aspects of the Constitution, including the due process and appointments clauses.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 13:10

House Oversight Committee Says Biden Autopen Pardons Are Null And Void

A GOP led House Oversight Committee has submitted a report to Attorney General Pam Bondi asserting that former president Joe Biden’s “cognitive decline” was so severe he may not have been aware of pardons he allegedly signed by autopen. 

Republicans argue that the proper course is to err on the side of caution given evidence of Biden's decaying mental condition - Even if the President was made aware of the sweeping documents rather than his aides using his autopen signature to falsify the pardons, it is likely that he still had no understanding of what the documents actually contained. 

Conservatives on the committee advise Bondi that the 4,245 presidential pardons and commutations issued by the Democrat, 82, should therefore be placed under review and could be considered invalid.  Republican Senator Josh Hawley chimed in on the issue, expressing deep concerns over some of the Biden signatures, including commuted sentences for multiple criminals who victimized children.

The report has been published only a month after one of former President Joe Biden's top aides - Jeff Zients, told the House Oversight Committee that an aide with his email credentials was green lighting some of the most controversial 'autopen' pardons, that Hunter Biden - who received an insane pardon himself - was involved in the pardon discussions, and that Joe Biden's brain was pea soup.

Hunter received a "full and unconditional" pardon for his crimes in early December, just under two months before Joe left office.  Biden approved nearly 2,500 commutations on Jan. 17, days before leaving the White House, (and issued over 4,200 in total over his term) - the most of any US president, and the most ever in a single day.

If Bondi moves forward with the investigation into the autopen scandal, it could open up a flurry of prosecutions including cases against Hunter Biden.

The panel “deems void President Biden’s executive actions that were signed using the Autopen, and the committee determines that action by the Department of Justice is warranted to address the legal consequences of that determination,” it said in its letter to Bondi, published Tuesday.

The Biden family is also subject to renewed investigation over ongoing suspicions that they misused their political positions to collect bribes from foreign officials in exchange for favors (influence peddling).  Biden did not pardon himself before leaving office, likely because of presidential immunity for "official acts" as determined by the Supreme Court in 2024.

Biden's presidency was rife with disinformation and a number of constitutional violations, from lies about Biden's mental health to lies about his administration's involvement in mass censorship.  His office then wrapped itself, its aides and it's allies in pardons upon exiting the White House as a means to avoid any future culpability.  It would be a travesty (for him and his family) if those pardons turned out to be null and void.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 12:40

Trick-Or-Treat Around The World

Trick-or-treating has been associated with Halloween celebrations in the U.S. and Canada since the early 1900s, but, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the infographic below, traditions of children going door to door in a quest for treats exist in many parts of the world, with one European custom being widely recognized as the precursor of the North American tradition.

You will find more infographics at Statista

As far back as the Middle Ages, people in the British Isles dressed up for holidays and went from door to door performing scenes in order to receive a thank-you in the form of food and drink.

The tradition is preserved today in Scotland and Ireland under the name guising and features dressed-up children rather than theater displays. The origin of Halloween, celebrated on October 31, also goes back to Celtic traditions, more specifically the Samhain festival, which marked the beginning of winter and a time when fairies and spirits needed to be appeased.

 Like many Christian holidays, All Saints' Day (November 1) and its eve, All Hallows' Day, coincide with the pagan festival and trick-or-treating is done in Portugal on the first day of November.

All Saints' Day also has a big significance in Mexico (celebrated as Day of the Dead there) but U.S. Halloween traditions have also been adopted, most heavily in the Northern and Central parts of the country, where the custom is named calaverita (litte skull) after the sugar skulls which are gifted for the festival.

But scary dress and trick-or-treating antics are not tied to a single date: Scandinavian children engage in them around Easter, while those in Northern Germany and Southern Denmark pick New Year's Eve. In Southern Germany, Austria Switzerland, the Netherlands and Flanders in Belgium, treats are given out not for threats, but for songs, which children perform on November 11 (St. Martin's Day). Caroling for sweets is also performed during Ramadan in Central Asia. This is where trick-or-treating blends into Christmas caroling, which is sometimes also rewarded with food offerings, for example in Eastern Europe.

The practice is associated most closely with England and the United States, but involves adults as well as children and more commonly the collection of money, for example for charity.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 12:05

Trump Reacts To Headlines Of 'Imminent' Land Attack: 'No Strikes On Venezuela'

Update(1155ET): It took a few mere hours for President Trump to react to headlines from early this morning declaring, "US strikes on Venezuela possibly days away." The Miami Herald cited sources who said it could just be even just "hours" away. 

Of course, if these land strikes against military and cartel locations are indeed imminent, the Pentagon would want to maintain the element of surprise. So Trump has either just now authentically rejected that it's going to happen at all, or else is seeking to run cover in order to keep that military element of surprise and edge. Now he's saying there will be "no strikes on Venezuela". Asked whether he's decided on such strikes, Trump responded "no". "President Trump reversed the decision Friday afternoon, stating no strikes would happen, leaving the military buildup's intent unclear amid ongoing U.S. efforts against drug trafficking," breaking reports say.

• TRUMP: NO STRIKES ON VENEZUELA
• TRUMP ON NUCLEAR TESTS: WE'RE GOING TO DO SOME TESTING
• TRUMP ON NUCLEAR TESTS: YOU'LL FIND OUT VERY SOON

And oil promptly dumped on the Venezuela-related headline...

* * *

New Friday morning reporting says that President Trump has made the decision to attack Venezuela, ahead of which has seen an unprecedented US military build-up in the South Caribbean, and has included redeploying the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group from the Mediterranean to join operations off Venezuela.

The planned attacks against Venezuelan military installations are being reported in The Miami Herald and The Wall Street Journal, both which describe the impending assault as imminent.

via US Navy

"The Trump Administration has made the decision to attack military installations inside Venezuela and the strikes could come at any moment, sources with knowledge of the situation told the Miami Herald, as the U.S. prepares to initiate the next stage of its campaign against the Soles drug cartel," Miami Herald writes.

The will "seek to destroy military installations used by the drug-trafficking organization the U.S. says is headed by Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and run by top members of his regime," the report continues.

Sources say it could come in just "hours" or a matter of "days":

Sources told the Herald that the targets — which could be struck by air in a matter of days or even hours — also aim to decapitate the cartel’s hierarchy. U.S. officials believe the cartel exports around 500 tons of cocaine yearly, split between Europe and the United States. While sources declined to say whether Maduro himself is a target, one of them said his time is running out.

“Maduro is about to find himself trapped and might soon discover that he cannot flee the country even if he decided to,” the source said. “What’s worse for him, there is now more than one general willing to capture and hand him over, fully aware that one thing is to talk about death, and another to see it coming.”

It sounds like it will be a full regime change operation, with a 'friendly' pro-US opposition leader likely to be installed into power - such as the latest Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, who just in a non-peaceful manner warned Maduro that "his time is up", after repeatedly calling on Trump for some kind of intervention in her country.

Oil spiked on the new war headlines, in a place which has the world's largest proven crude reserves...

Up to this point, the significant number of US assets positioned in regional waters have only engaged in maritime operations, having blown up some 15 suspected narco-smuggling boats at this point, and killing and wounding dozens. But in classified briefings to Congressional leaders, reports suggest the Pentagon can't confirm the identities of who it is actually taking out, even though they've been labeled high valued 'narco-terrorists' who ultimately do the bidding of President Maduro.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 11:55

88-Year-Old Congresswoman Is Exposed For Having 7 No-Show Jobs

Authored by José Niño via Headline USA,

Eleanor Holmes Norton, Washington D.C.’s 88-year-old congressional delegate, claims to sit on multiple boards at prestigious institutions, but investigations reveal she hasn’t been active with them in years. Some of these positions no longer even exist according to a report by Luke Goldstein and Dan Boguslaw. 

According to her latest financial disclosure, Norton lists positions on roughly half a dozen boards. However, when contacted, three organizations reported no recent contact with her, while two confirmed their boards had been dissolved years ago.

These revelations follow a troubling NBC4 report that obtained a police document detailing how scammers posing as HVAC repairmen defrauded Norton of $4,400 for services never performed. The report also noted that Norton has a caretaker with power of attorney who reported the fraud.

Norton, once a prominent civil rights leader who participated in the 1963 March on Washington, now appears to have outdated information on her ethics forms, suggesting her staff may be resubmitting portions automatically without updates.

Goldstein and Boguslaw observed that the boards Norton lists include the executive committee of the Yale Law School Association, the board of trustees for Antioch College, the lawyers committee for civil rights, and advisory boards at Georgetown’s Women’s Law & Public Policy Fellowship Program, American University’s Women and Politics Institute, and the Sewall Belmont House.

Repeated inquiries to these organizations yielded concerning responses. Norton was a founding member of Georgetown’s Women’s Law & Public Policy Fellowship Program and regularly hosted fellows for Capitol Hill lunches. However, according to a spokesperson, she hasn’t done so since 2019.

American University’s response was even more revealing: “The Women & Politics Institute no longer has an advisory board,” they wrote, per Goldstein and Boguslaw’s report. 

Similarly, representatives for the Sewall-Belmont House explained that ownership transferred to the National Park Service in 2016, and the Park Service has no record of an advisory board or Norton’s current involvement with the site.

Two congressional sources confirmed Norton is largely absent from committee meetings and planning sessions. During the Trump administration’s deployment of trfcioops to Washington D.C., Norton was nearly invisible except for a generic condemnation statement.

Republican-led hearings on D.C. crime and public safety should have been Norton’s opportunity to defend her constituents, but she struggled through a prepared statement. Sources close to city council reported her “halting” performance immediately sparked discussions about organizing efforts to push her toward retirement.

Two city council members have since announced primary challenges: Robert White, the current at-large council member, and Brooke Pinto, the Ward 2 council member.

Despite these challenges, Norton has told reporters she intends to run for re-election at age 90, though her staff maintains she hasn’t decided.

Democratic Party leadership has remained silent on the situation, declining to intervene while Washington D.C. faces ongoing challenges with minimal representation.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 11:45

Vance Calls For Slowing Down Legal Immigration At Turning Point USA Event

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Vice President JD Vance on Oct. 29 said that the rate of legal immigration should be slowed down, saying too many people have been allowed into the United States, undercutting American wages and challenging social cohesion.

Vice President JD Vance takes the stage during a "This Is the Turning Point" campus tour event at the University of Mississippi, in Oxford, Miss., on Oct. 29, 2025. Gerald Herbert/AP Photo

“Right now, we have let in too many immigrants into the United States of America. That is just a fundamental reality, now,” the vice president said.

Vance made the remarks while taking questions from students after delivering a speech at the University of Mississippi during a Turning Point USA event, stepping into the role of debater, which had been performed by the organization’s late founder, Charlie Kirk.

“I think the evidence is pretty clear that a lot of those immigrants are actually undercutting the wages of American workers,” he said, adding that was one of the reasons that President Donald Trump and others in his administration have encouraged H-1B visa reform.

He said that while some immigrants can enrich the United States, “we have got to get our overall numbers way, way down; too many people have come into the United States.”

Touching on the issue of immigration outpacing assimilation, he said: “You’ve got to allow your own society to cohere a little bit, to build a sense of common identity for all the newcomers to assimilate ... into American culture. Until you do that, you’ve got to be careful about any additional immigration, in my view.”

Pressed by one woman who questioned his position, Vance said that while he respects that there are people who have legally entered the United States and contribute to the country, it does not mean the United States should commit to immigration policies that could permit millions more to come in the future.

Common American Community

There are “too many people who want to come to the United States of America, and my job as vice president is not to look out for the interests of the whole world. It’s to look out for the people of the United States,” he said.

The vice president did not specify a target number for legal immigration, saying it would depend on the circumstances and on providing enough space for newcomers to settle and integrate into American society.

“What is the exact number of immigrants America should accept in the future? Right now, the answer is far less than we’ve been accepting,” Vance said.

“We have got to become a common community again, and you can’t do that when you have such high numbers of immigration, which is one of the reasons why we have the immigration policy we do.”

Attendees listen as Vice President JD Vance speaks during a "This Is the Turning Point" campus tour event at the University of Mississippi, in Oxford, Miss., on Oct. 29, 2025. Gerald Herbert/AP Photo

Vance was introduced on stage by Charlie Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, who has taken a leading role at Turning Point USA as its CEO.

In his speech before taking questions, Vance reflected on the advice that Charlie Kirk had given to young people, including his urging for them to get married, find a vocation, and build a family.

“That was the advice that he gave on campuses. But that’s not just about you. That’s also about our country and about our government, because while you have the freedom to live life as you so choose, I have got a responsibility as your vice president to make the American dream as accessible as possible,” Vance said.

Attendees cheer during a "This Is the Turning Point" campus tour event at the University of Mississippi, in Oxford, Miss., on Oct. 29, 2025. Gerald Herbert/AP Photo

“This is why we care about all the things that we care about. Why do I care so much about having a secure border in the United States of America?

“It’s because I believe that when you let in a flood of illegal immigration, what it does is it drives down the wages of young people and makes housing unaffordable for the entire American population. That’s why we closed down the border.”

Vance added: “The left will say our immigration policy is about hating immigration, hating immigrants. We don’t hate anybody. We love our fellow citizens, and because we want them to have the American dream, we shut that border down the very first day that Donald J. Trump was the president of the United States.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 11:05

Jamaica's Catastrophe Bond Poised For Big Payout Within Weeks After Hurricane Melissa's Insane Strength

Hurricane Melissa was the most powerful storm to make landfall in Jamaica in over 170 years, ripping through the Caribbean island's western region with 185 mph winds and leaving widespread destruction to infrastructure, towns, resorts, and farmland. The storm's central pressure is likely to have fallen below the threshold that would trigger a $150 million catastrophe bond designed to offset weather-related losses through the capital markets.

According to CNBC, the government of Jamaica's $150 million cat bond was structured by insurance broker Aon using the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development's "capital at risk" program and could be triggered as soon as next month.

For the island nation's government to receive funds, the storm's central pressure must be less than 900 millibars upon landfall. Early indications from the National Hurricane Center show the Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds met that threshold in several regions in the western part of the island. 

Source: Bloomberg

Key details about $150 million cat bond:

• The cat bond, structured by Aon and effective through 2027, provides parametric coverage, meaning payouts are based on storm intensity metrics rather than assessed damages.

• Triggering paypout requires the storm's central pressure must be <900 millibars upon landfall. Early National Hurricane Center data confirm Melissa met this threshold in multiple regions, now pending verification by an independent agent which could take weeks. 

• If triggered, funds could reach Jamaica within about one month, far faster than traditional insurance settlements, which often take several months.

Jamaica is the first Caribbean and small-island nation to sponsor a cat bond, according to Aon. 

"While the final numbers are still being verified, the early signs suggest the transaction is doing what it was designed to do: getting critical funds to the country quickly after a major disaster," Chris Lefferdink, Aon's head of insurance-linked securities for North America, told CNBC in a statement. 

The question of whether the $150 million cat bond will cover all the damage remains in question. New satellite data from Bloomberg shows extensive damage. 

Source: Bloomberg

Damage report so far:

• Montego Bay, Black River, and surrounding parishes (Saint James, Westmoreland, Saint Elizabeth) suffered the heaviest damage, with around 40% of buildings and roads destroyed.

• Power outages persist for about 72% of customers, while many communities remain isolated due to blocked roads and debris.

• At least 19 people were killed, and economic losses are estimated at $8 billion, about one-third of Jamaica's GDP, according to Enki Research.

Satellite imagery showing power outages across Jamaica. Top taken before Melissa. Bottom taken after. Represents lights you normally would see. https://t.co/Hk3pbO84Yf pic.twitter.com/s9NDDyLJ47

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) October 31, 2025

Jamaica's use of a cat bond and its likely trigger event in the coming weeks could spark significant interest among other Caribbean nations for next year's Atlantic hurricane season. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 10:05

Chicago PMI Beats But Remains In 'Contraction' For Second Straught Year

There's good news and bad news in today's macro data (what scarce data there is).

MNI's Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) printed a better than expected 43.8 (42.3 exp), up from the prior 40.6...

Source: Bloomberg

There's a little more good news as seven of the underlying components rose vs last month:

• Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

The bad news is, as the chart above shows (normalized for the 50 cut off between expansion and contraction), this was the 23rd straight month below 50 (contraction) and the 37th month of contraction in the last 38 months.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 09:57

New York Declares Emergency Over Looming Pause In Food Stamps

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Thursday declared a state of emergency due to the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) program being suspended on Nov. 1 due to the government shutdown and a lack of funding.

People shop for food at a store that accepts food stamps in New York City in a file photograph. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The decision means that $65 million in state funds will be allocated for emergency food assistance to provide for 40 million meals statewide, her office said in a statement. Around 3 million people in the state receive SNAP benefits, known as food stamps.

In a statement, the Democratic governor said that the loss of SNAP funds is “an unprecedented public health crisis” and will harm farmers, grocers, and other stores across the state.

“Today, I’m declaring a state of emergency and am committing additional state funds for emergency food assistance to ensure New Yorkers don’t go hungry,” Hochul added in her statement.

The $65 million in state funding will include $40 million “in new funding for the Hunger Prevention and Nutrition Assistance Program, which provides emergency food relief and nutrition services to food-insecure populations,” said her office.

The emergency order also directs the Empire State Service Corps and the State University of New York Corps, which are both state-funded public service work program for college students, to assist in SNAP registrations and other efforts.

“The Empire State Service Corps will allow current members to expand their paid hours, enabling them to provide greater support at food pantries statewide,” the statement from her office said. “In addition, new short-term crisis response positions will be created to assist food pantries and food banks facing staffing shortages.

SNAP’s looming lapse in funding comes as the shutdown has lasted nearly a month, coming after members of Congress did not come to an agreement on how to fund the government.

Democrats have said that any measure to reopen the government should include what they say are protections for health care, including an extension of health care subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. Republicans say that talks on health care should come after the government is reopened.

Meanwhile, both Democrats and Republicans, as well as the Trump administration, have traded blame over the lapse in SNAP funding.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned that food stamps are set to run dry and accused Democrats of obstructing the reopening of the government. Hochul and other Democrats have blamed the Trump administration and Republicans over the shutdown and SNAP funding lapse.

Other states have issued emergency orders over SNAP deadline. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, said on Oct. 27 that his administration will provide $3 million in emergency funding to a nonprofit to residents who are expected to lose access to SNAP.

The governor of Delaware, Matt Meyer, also declared an emergency earlier this week that he said will allow the state to redirect funds to food assistance during the shutdown. Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee made a similar declaration on Oct. 28, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin declared one on Oct. 23.

At the same time, 25 states have filed a lawsuit against the federal government to keep SNAP’s funding going past the Nov. 1 deadline. U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani told lawyers on Thursday in a hearing that the government can’t afford to cover the program, and that there’s a process to follow rather than simply suspending all benefits.

“The steps involve finding an equitable way of reducing benefits,” said Talwani in the hearing.

The Trump administration has argued it wasn’t allowed to use a contingency fund with about $5 billion in it for the program, while a USDA plan from before the shutdown said that money would be tapped to keep SNAP running. Democratic states have argued that not only could that contingency money be used, it must be. They also said a separate fund with around $23 billion could be tapped.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 09:25

Coinbase CEO's Bizarre Final Words On Q3 Call Just Paid Off A Lucky Few

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Coinbase boss Brian Armstrong shook up two prediction markets in the final seconds of Thursday’s third-quarter earnings call by dropping a list of crypto buzzwords that Kalshi and Polymarket users bet would be mentioned in the call, resolving all markets to a “yes.” 

Several Kalshi and Polymarket users were ecstatic that their bets paid off in the final seconds. In contrast, others were understandably rattled to hear that a prediction market could be so easily upended.  

“I was a little distracted because I was tracking the predictions market about what Coinbase will say in their next earnings call, and I just want to add here, the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3, make sure we get those in before the end of the call,” said Armstrong. 

The “What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call” markets from Kalshi and Polymarket saw $80,242 and $3,912 worth of bets placed.

That included 24 punters on Polymarket, where fortunately, no one lost more than $12 on a single bet. 

Armstrong later on X said it happened “spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a [prediction markets] link in the chat.”

lol this was fun - happened spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a link in the chat https://t.co/tQiV3B9jUj

— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) October 31, 2025

Armstrong seemed to please more punters than not

Almost every punter in the comments section was pleased with Armstrong’s last-minute decision to list the crypto buzzwords not mentioned earlier.

“HAHAHAH THE GOAT BRIAN,” Polymarket user TheMasterMind said, while Kalshi users Redbullfool and Chungboy thanked Armstrong for the “gift.”

Mention words in Kalshi’s “What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call” market. Source: Kalshi 

While prediction markets are powerful tools for gauging expectations, they rely on the trust that insiders won’t won’t exploit their knowledge for personal gain.

Actions like this have previously raised suspicions of insider trading and market manipulation.

Coinbase performed well in Q3

Although the earnings call had an unusual conclusion, Coinbase delivered another profitable quarter, with $432.6 million in net income and $1.9 billion in revenue, representing a 55% increase from the same quarter in the previous year.

Coinbase also increased its Bitcoin holdings by 2,772 BTC to 14,458 BTC — putting it back in the top 10 largest corporate Bitcoin holding companies, BitcoinTreasuries.NET data shows.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 08:55

Futures Rebound Lifted By Strong Amazon, Apple Earnings

US equity futures rebound from the Thursday drop, led by Mag 7. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.8% higher and Nasdaq futures gain 1.2%, on pace for sixth and seventh straight monthly gains respectively, with all Mag 7 names higher premarket, led by AMZN (+12.7%) and AAPL (+1.9%) after their robust earnings release (AWS sales growth of 19.7%, best since 2022 and AAPL’s revenue guidance) yesterday after-close. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell for a fourth day, putting the gauge on track for its longest losing streak since July; in Japan, the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 closed up and notched its best month since 1990. Bond yields are flat, the USD is higher. Commodities are mostly lower; copper fell -2.4%. Today's calendar slate includes October MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45am (several minutes earlier for subscribers); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1.  Fed speaker slate includes Dallas Fed President Logan (9:30am) and Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (12pm). Both CVX and XOM reporting earnings this morning.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Amazon.com (AMZN) jumps 12% after the company’s cloud unit posted the strongest growth rate in almost three years, reassuring investors who were concerned that the largest seller of rented computing power was losing ground to rivals. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 2% after the company predicted a major sales surge during the holiday season after releasing new iPhones, helping assure investors that its flagship product remains a growth engine (Nvidia (NVDA) +2%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +1.4%, Tesla (TSLA) +1.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.4%)

• Brighthouse Financial (BHF) soars 22% after the Financial Times reports that Aquarian Holdings is in advanced talks to take the US life insurer private.
• Charter Communications (CHTR) falls 5% after posting third-quarter results.
• Cloudflare (NET) rises 8% after the software company forecast revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Coinbase (COIN) advances 4% after the largest US crypto exchanged reported third-quarter revenue that exceeded estimates following an uptick in trading as token prices climbed to record highs.
• Dexcom (DXCM) sinks 12% after the glucose-monitor company cut its adjusted gross margin forecast for the full year.
• Floor & Decor (FND) shares are up 7% after the home products retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Illumina (ILMN) gain 6% after the gene-sequencing company boosted its adjusted profit and operating margin for the full year. Analysts note the better-than-expected results for the third quarter should help ease investor concerns.
• Netflix Inc. (NFLX) gained more than 2% in premarket trading. The company approved a 10-for-1 stock split to make its share price more accessible for employees who participate in the company’s stock option program. Separately, Reuters reported the company is exploring a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming businesses.
• Pony.ai (PONY) is up 4% after the autonomous vehicle technology company said it’s been granted Shenzhen’s first citywide permit for fully driverless commercial robotaxi operations.
• Reddit (RDDT) gains 10% after the social-media company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus.
• Roku (ROKU) shares are down 4% after the streaming-video platform company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. While analysts are broadly positive, they said the results aren’t enough to meet high expectations.
• Western Digital (WDC) rises 9% as the computer-storage company reported better-than-expected 1Q results and its current quarter forecast came in largely ahead of estimates.

In corporate news, Exxon Mobil outperformed Wall Street expectations for a sixth consecutive quarter after beginning operations at its fourth oil-production project in Guyana. Chevron beat earnings estimates as profits from the $53 billion Hess Corp. acquisition were included in the results for the first time, boosting oil production and cash flow. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang still hopes to sell chips from the company’s Blackwell lineup to customers in China, though he has no current plans to do so, he told reporters Friday. Millennium Management is raising $5 billion in a new fund to invest in private market opportunities.

US stock gains offered investors a respite from Thursday’s bruising session, amid lingering doubts over whether heavy AI spending will pay off. The S&P 500’s advance has increasingly relied on a group of tech megacaps - recent record highs were hit on record negative breadth - with warnings over lofty valuations following a blistering rally.

“Volatility has become a feature rather than a bug — day-to-day swings now regularly move major stocks by hundreds of billions of dollars,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “The feedback loop of investor sentiment, speculative positioning, and rapid news-driven reactions amplify these moves.”

On Friday, futures rose as Amazon jumped 13% in premarket trading, a move set to add about $300 billion to its market value after reporting the fastest cloud-unit growth in nearly three years. Apple also climbed on a revenue beat and upbeat holiday forecast. Nvidia meanwhile, unveiled new partnerships with South Korea’s biggest firms, extending a global push to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure. Friday's market gains will seal the index’s longest monthly winning streak since August 2021, capping a rally that has withstood global trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Earnings season remains top of mind with more than 60% of S&P 500 companies having reported to date, and a further 150 expected today and next week. Contrast of earnings receptions to AI spending has diverged within big tech, as investors seek quantification of how investments are benefiting related businesses.  Earnings have also broadly topped forecasts, with about 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating expectations.

According to BofA's Michael Hartnett, global equities drew $17.2 billion in inflows in the week to Oct. 29. Hartnett added that AI’s leadership remains firmly in place. Market breadth remains a concern for traders, and divergence notable between US and European equities. Michael Burry, the man who made his name shorting the US housing market, sent what appears to be a cryptic warning to retail investors about market exuberance. Equity performance in 2025 has been characterized by extreme concentration of volatility episodes, according to Barclays strategists.

“The risks are mainly flows. They have been the main driver, much more than EPS growth,” said Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi. “If flows begin to halt on risky assets, then there will be a genuine selloff. But it’s like a black swan, you never know when it’s coming.”

On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the US to return to the negotiating table with China in a year. That came after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers. Xi also warned against “breaking supply chains” in his first public remarks after meeting with Trump. “A comprehensive deal still looks far away and while trade tensions have eased for the time being, they have the potential to resurface,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist at Jefferies International.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell for a fourth day, putting the gauge on track for its longest losing streak since July. Telecoms, insurance and construction stocks are dragging. Treasuries and European bonds relatively steady, with small outperformance at the short-end in gilts. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Puig shares rose as much as 9.8% with trading volume almost 10 times the 20-day average after the Spanish group reported better-than-expected 3Q sales and upgraded its guidance for the last three months of the year
• Fuchs shares gain as much as 12%, the most since March 2020, after the chemicals company reported a stronger-than-expected Ebit as North and South American markets improved from previous softness
• Danske Bank gains as much as 2.8%, the most in a month, after the Danish lender reported solid third-quarter numbers, with analysts flagging strong core revenues and a slight beat to net interest income (NII)
• Interpump shares rise as much as 6.8%. Equita analysts upgraded the Italian hydraulics and pumps manufacturer as they expect the stock to outperform thanks to improving margins and organic trends and see M&A opportunities
• Kongsberg shares gain as much as 4.9% after a slew of analysts upgraded the stock following the Norwegian company’s results-driven declines on Thursday, leaving the firm with no sell or equivalent recommendations
• UMG shares rise as much as 1.8% after the world’s largest record label delivered a beat on both revenue and adjusted Ebitda in the third quarter, with growth in the important subscription unit ahead of expectations
• Erste shares rise as much as 4.1% as the Austrian lender raised its net interest income growth and CET1 capital ratio guidance. The bank sees its deal to buy Santander’s Polish unit on track to close around the year-end
• Viridien shares rose as much as 26%, the biggest jump since 2020, after the French group reported operating profits well above expectations
• Scor shares fall as much as 8.2%, the most since July, as analysts grew concerned about the reinsurance company’s solvency ratio and real estate amortization after it reported third-quarter results
• Spie shares fall as much as 5.9% to the lowest since May as the France-based engineering services company’s third-quarter organic growth came up short
• AXA shares dropped as much as 2.5% after the French insurer reported nine-month results. Jefferies highlighted the Solvency II ratio as the biggest news from the results, while Citi saw the update as uneventful
• Saint-Gobain falls as much as 3.2%, to the lowest since mid-April, after reporting third-quarter like-for-like sales that missed consensus estimates, and expected to trigger small downgrades to consensus numbers
• Acerinox falls as much as 3.4% after the stainless steelmaker said fourth-quarter Ebitda is expected to be lower than in the third quarter. Analysts see potential double-digit downgrades to full-year consensus
• Elis shares fall as much as 1.2% after the French cleaning services group reported growth in Central Europe that missed estimates due to softness in Germany. This morning, the firm also said it will buy Larosé
• Drax shares fall as much as 3.7% after UBS initiated coverage of the chemicals firm with a sell rating, saying too much optimism is priced in for the shares

Earlier in the session, Asia’s benchmark also pared its monthly advance. Stocks in Asia slipped as broad regional losses, led by China and Hong Kong, outweighed gains in Japan and South Korea. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%, with Alibaba and Tencent among the top laggards, though it’s on track to end the month up 3.6%. The MSCI China Index is on course for its first monthly loss since April, as a liquidity-fueled AI rally gives way to concerns about lingering US-China tensions and economic concerns. In Japan, Hitachi’s better-than-expected earnings and upgraded outlook lifted sentiment. With stocks across major markets trading near record highs, investors are watching for concentration risk and strength of earnings. Results from Amazon and Apple in the US helped lift sentiment around technology names, but BYD’s sales miss raised concerns on the Chinese electric vehicle industry. Stocks also rose in New Zealand and Indonesia, while declining in Vietnam, India and Thailand.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed Friday, set to gain 1.5% in October, which would be its second monthly advance this year. USD/JPY fell to 153.65 as inflation in Tokyo rose at a faster pace in October, backing the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike. It has since reversed losses, trading little changed around 154.12. In addition to Tokyo inflation, Japan’s better-than-expected industrial output in September also supported the yen earlier. Spot hit the session low after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is monitoring the yen with a strong sense of urgency

In rates, US Treasuries steadied after two sessions of sharply higher yields; most yields were within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels. US 10-year around 4.105% is just below Thursday’s high; bunds and gilts in the sector keep pace. Curve is slightly steeper, widening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by less than 1bp on the day. Price action in European bonds is similarly muted following French and euro-area inflation data for October. 

In commodities, gold lower and hovering around $4,000/oz. Oil falling, with Brent short of $65/barrel. Oil set for a third monthly loss.

US economic calendar slate includes October MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45am (several minutes earlier for subscribers); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1.  Fed speaker slate includes Dallas Fed President Logan (9:30am) and Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (12pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.1%
• VIX -0.8 points at 16.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1218.88
• euro little changed at $1.157
• WTI crude -0.6% at $60.18/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump Urges Republicans to End the Filibuster to Reopen Government. WSJ
• Elon Musk’s SpaceX Set to Win $2 Billion Pentagon Satellite Deal. WSJ
• Private Credit’s Rising Pile of ‘Bad PIK’ Points to Default Woes. BBG
• A narrow Pacific waterway is at the heart of U.S. plans to choke China’s vast navy. RTRS
• China’s factory activity slumped for the longest streak in more than nine years, prompting fresh calls for greater policy support even as the country reached a trade truce with the US. BBG
• Trump's exit is Xi's cue to take centre stage at APEC. RTRS
• More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy. WSJ
• King Charles strips brother Andrew of titles and his mansion. RTRS
• The great AI buildout shows no sign of slowing. RTRS
• Disney Channels Go Dark on YouTube TV. WSJ
• Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough. WSJ
• China signals sharper pivot to consumption as imbalances worsen. RTRS
• The Japanese government is monitoring the yen with a strong sense of urgency, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said, sending her first clear warning on currency movements since taking on her role. BBG
• Inflation in Tokyo rose at a faster pace, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to keep raising interest rates gradually and giving the yen a boost. BBG
• Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told China’s President Xi Jinping her concerns over his country’s rare earth export restrictions in their first formal meeting, as tensions spanning from trade to security continue to simmer between the two countries. BBG
• US President Trump's administration fired Fannie Mae ethics officials, according to WSJ.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang told reporters that he hopes to sell the Blackwell chip to China, but as it stands there are no plans to do so. Sales were not a topic of discussion during the meeting with China's Council for the Promotion of Trade. Co. has been growing quickly, but in the last six months this has accelerated "quite substantially".

Trade/Tariffs

• Chinese President Xi called for safeguarding multilateral trade at the APEC summit and urged members to practice true multilateralism, while he called on APEC to keep industrial and supply chains smooth and stable. Xi said APEC should promote an open regional economic environment and called for promoting trade and investment liberalisation, as well as urged members to jointly promote the digitalisation and greening of free trade.
• China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang said they will conduct studies on international standards, economic and trade rules, and continue to meet them in terms of green standards. Li said export volume of photovoltaic products exceeded CNY 200bln for four consecutive years, and that export volume of electric vehicles exceeded 2mln units for the first time last year. Furthermore, he said green vehicles such as locomotives have also maintained strong growth and that China will continue to adapt to the global trend of green and low-carbon development.
• South Korean President Lee said they are at a critical inflection point of change in global order, and global trade uncertainty is deepening.
• EU officials will today be informed about a visit by US Commerce Secretary Lutnick to the EU on November 24th for trade talks, via Politico.
• Japan's PM Takaichi to Chinese President Xi says she would like to confirm basic direction of Japan-China relation, including building constructive and stable ties.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region digested recent earnings releases and a data deluge at month-end. ASX 200 was flat as gains in mining, materials and resources were offset as defensives lagged. Nikkei 225 outperformed and climbed above the 52,000 level to print a fresh all-time high after recent currency weakness and the lack of immediate rate hike signals from the BoJ, while participants digested a slew of data, including a higher Unemployment Rate, hot Tokyo CPI and a rebound in Industrial Production. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were amid losses in tech stocks, and after Chinese Manufacturing PMI data missed expectations and showed a faster pace of contraction in factory activity

Top Asian News

 

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said discussions on lowering gasoline prices have progressed, including sources for funding, while she added that the Bank of Japan’s recent decision was extremely reasonable and that monetary policies are up to the BoJ to decide. Katayama also commented that they are recently seeing one-sided and rapid moves, as well noted, it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they are closely watching foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) opened mostly lower and have traded with a negative bias throughout the morning. Pressure which lacks a fresh catalyst, but follows on from a tentative APAC session. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a few sectors managing to hold afloat. Banks buoyed by upside in the likes of Danske Bank (+1.8%) and Caixabank (+1.4%), post-earnings. Construction & Materials is found right at the foot of the pile, pressured by losses in Saint-Gobain (-1.9%), after it missed on its Q3 revenue figure.

Top European News

• ECB's Rehn says keeping interest rate unchanged is justified due to uncertainty about inflation outlook in the coming years. The impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be disinflationary.
• ECB's Muller says economic situation has gradually improved and current interest rates level is appropriate.
• ECB's Kazaks says ECB will move when needed but shouldn't be 'jumpy', growth is still weak with high uncertainty. Should not overinterpret 2028 inflation outlook.

FX

• DXY is slightly firmer and currently trading at the mid-point of a 99.41-99.66 range. Nothing really behind the mild strength today, but it does comes amid elevated yields in the aftermath of the hawkish Powell presser. Focus for the day will be on the Chicago PMI and commentary from Fed’s Logan and Bostic; Miran and Schmid will also likely explain their recent dissent. As a reminder, Miran voted for a 50bps cut, whilst Schmid opted for U/C.
• EUR is flat vs the USD, trading in a tight 1.1556-1.1577 range. The single-currency was little moved on the ECB decision itself, and President Lagarde lacked surprises at her presser thereafter. Following the announcement, Reuters sources suggested that ECB policymakers are preparing for a December showdown on inflation and rates. Some favour a cut, to prevent undershooting in 2028 whilst others give little weight to longer-term outlooks. Turning to this morning, a few ECB members have provided commentary; Rehn said keeping rates steady was justified due to uncertainty, Muller said current interest rates are appropriate and Kazaks suggested the ECB should not be “jumpy” adding that growth is still weak. On data, little move to the EZ HICP, whereby the headline printed in-line with expectations at 2.1% (prev. 2.2%); core and super-core metrics remained unchanged from the prior, defying the forecast for a slight moderation.
• GBP is a touch softer vs the broadly firmer Dollar; currently trading within a narrow 1.3126-1.3164 range. Really not much by way of fresh in terms of the UK’s Budget, but traders are now weighing up possibilities of a Budget without Chancellor Reeves. In more detail, in the last few days, Reeves reportedly breached renting-related rules, forcing her to apologise for the mistake. There were calls for her to resign, though PM Starmer poured cold water on those suggesting that there is “no need” for further action. GBP did sour a touch in recent sessions, but has since stabilised as PM Starmer backed his Chancellor.
• JPY is a touch lower today and trades within a 153.66 to 154.41 range. Overnight the pair saw modest pressure following a hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI report, which saw the Y/Y jump to 2.8% (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.4%). Also in focus for the Yen was some jawboning from the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who said he has been recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves, adding that, he is closely watching foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency.
• Antipodeans are underperforming today, continuing the pressure seen in the APAC session. Downside which follows on from subdued Chinese Manufacturing PMI, and amidst a tentative risk tone in Asia and into the European session.

Fixed Income

• USTs are under modest pressure early doors amid the constructive performance of US equity futures as numbers from Amazon and Apple drive the region, and particularly the NQ, higher. Additionally, the debt space has been hit by Meta announcing USD 30bln of issuance, the largest corporate HG offering this since 2023 and the largest Meta has ever tapped the market for. Newsflow this morning has been light as we await upcoming Fed speakers. Into those, UST are towards the trough of a 112-17+ to 112-23+ band with downside of 5+ ticks at most. The low is just a tick above Thursday’s 112-16 post-Powell base. The Fed docket begins with Logan (2027), Bostic (2027) and Hammack (2026); however, the topics don’t appear to be directly pertinent to current/future monetary policy. Instead, the main focus will likely be on the dissent texts from Miran (voted for a 50bps cut, again) and Schmid (voted for U/C).
• Bunds are weighed on in-fitting with the above. Down to a 129.16 trough into the flash EZ HICP print, posting losses of c. 20 ticks at worst. Little move on the EZ HICP, whereby the headline printed in-line with expectations at 2.1% (prev. 2.2%); core and super-core metrics remained unchanged from the prior, above expectations. Ultimately, the print does not change the narrative for the ECB that inflation remains near target and the outlook is broadly unchanged. As a reminder, post-ECB Reuters sources added to the known narrative around December; that the 2028 inflation forecasts could spark a ‘showdown’ on inflation and by extension interest rates, as the 2028 projection could print in favour of easing.
• Gilts opened lower by 18 ticks at the benchmark reacted to the overnight pressure from US earnings and Meta issuance. Thereafter, Gilts fell another 10 to a 93.44 trough but still clear of Thursday’s 93.29 base and the WTD low of 93.15 from Monday. Specifics for the UK are relatively light, domestic press remains focussed on the rental blunder by Chancellor Reeves. As it stands, PM Starmer is standing by her but the scandal could ultimately lead to her dismissal; given how close we are to the Autumn Budget, if that occurs before the replacement would likely be a continuity-appointment to essentially deliver Reeves’ budget.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are on the backfoot but remain rangebound as the market waits for the OPEC+ meeting at the weekend. Currently, WTI and Brent are oscillating in a tight USD 60.02-60.53/bbl and USD 63.83-64.33/bbl range respectively. On the Gaza ceasefire, it was reported that the US has allowed Israel to enforce the ceasefire and fire at Hamas targets behind the yellow line where the IDF holds in Gaza. Artillery shelling has been reported inside the yellow line east of Gaza city. However, this news has not shifted crude prices.
• Spot XAU followed on from Thursday’s rebound, extending to a peak of USD 4046/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before falling back lower to a trough of USD 3988/oz. XAU remains above USD 4k/oz, currently trading at 4003/oz, as the market digests a week of central bank announcements.
• Base metals continue to fall despite the positive China-US talks held in the early hours of Thursday’s session. Following Thursday’s selloff weighed on by dollar strength, 3M LME Copper rebounded in the latter hours of Thursday’s session and peaked at USD 10.98k/t as the APAC session got underway. The red metal fell to a trough of USD 10.86k/t and oscillated in a tight c. USD 40/oz before extending on the day’s losses. Thus far, 3M LME Copper remains near session lows at USD 10.83k/t.
• Oman December crude OSP at USD 65.06/bbl (prev. USD 70.01 M/M), via GME data.
• China Iron and Steel Association said China’s apparent steel consumption from January to September fell 5.7% Y/Y to 649mln metric tons, while it added that apparent steel consumption in 2025 is expected to fall for a fifth straight year.

Geopolitics

• Palestinian media reports Israeli raids targeted Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US reportedly cancelled the Trump-Putin meeting after Moscow sent a memo to Washington, as the Russian Foreign Ministry’s maximalist demands for ending the Ukraine war led to the US scrapping the planned meeting in Budapest, according to FT.
• Russia's Kremlin on FT report that US President Trump and Russia's President Putin meeting is cancelled says "I'd refer you to Russia's Foreign Ministry statement, not newspapers reports".
• US President Trump's administration identified targets in Venezuela that include military facilities used to smuggle drugs, according to WSJ citing US officials familiar with the matter. Furthermore, the officials stated that if Trump decided to move forward with airstrikes, the targets would send a clear message to Venezuelan leader Maduro that it is time to step down.
• US Secretary of Defense Hegseth met with Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, which he said was a good and constructive meeting, while he highlighted the importance of maintaining the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, he highlighted US concerns about China’s activities in the South China Sea and said the US will continue to stoutly defend its interests.

US Event calendar

• 8:30 am: Sep Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: Sep Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: Sep Real Personal Spending, est. 0.18%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: Sep PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
• 8:30 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
• 8:30 am: 3Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
• 9:45 am: Oct MNI Chicago PMI, est. 42, prior 40.6

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Halloween to you all. My main skill today will be to persuade my family that although I’m a bit more mobile now, the risks of going trick or treating is just too great so soon after the back operation. I’m not convinced that will fly. I may threaten to show off my two huge operation scars to frighten everyone! The whole family have extravagant outfits delivered yesterday from Amazon with every accessory imaginable. No wonder their results were so good last night.

Indeed just as the tech mood had soured yesterday, this morning that has mostly turned around following results from Apple and Amazon after the closing bell. Amazon’s shares surged by +13% in post-market trading as its cloud revenue grew +20% y/y, the fastest since 2022. So that boosted sentiment on what has been the weakest performing of the Mag-7 stocks this year, with only a +1.58% YTD gain after yesterday’s -3.23% decline.  Meanwhile, Apple saw a +2% after-market gain as it projected 10-12% revenue growth in the current quarter (vs. +6% est.) driven by stronger iPhone sales. US equity futures are erasing much of yesterday’s decline this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.65% and on the NASDAQ up +1.21%.

This renewed momentum has helped sentiment after a more challenging day yesterday despite the positive outcomes from the US-China trade discussions. Investor concerns over AI-related capital expenditure resurfaced, highlighted by Meta’s sharp decline of -11.33% after results after the closing bell on Wednesday night. The company also announced a $30 billion bond issuance - the largest in over two years - to fund its operations. So not all capex is being funded out of cash! Nvidia also fell -2.00% as investors didn’t received any clarity on possible Blackwell chip sales to China. Overnight Trump has actually said that they didn’t talk about Blackwell specifically. These developments curtailed the recent equity rally, with the S&P 500 down -0.99%, the Nasdaq off -1.57%, and the Magnificent 7 sliding -2.73%. We could get a bounce back today.

One of the more fascinating stories yesterday was Meta’s $30 billion bond sale announcement, aimed at supporting its AI growth and infrastructure. US IG was a couple basis points wider yesterday to make room for the deal. A deluge of corporate bond issuance also appeared to push up Treasury yields early in the US session, with 10yr yields closing +2.1bps at 4.10%. Meta’s shares were already falling before the deal was announced due to disappointments in the earnings release the night before. Initially they dropped as much as -13.50% before closing -11.33% lower - its largest fall since the autumn 2022 bear market. This followed Wednesday’s disclosure that Meta expects to spend up to $72 billion on capital expenditures this year, primarily on datacentres and infrastructure, with further increases anticipated in 2026. Investors are increasingly questioning the return on such spending, particularly given Meta’s revenue-to-capex ratio of just 3.02—the lowest among its peers.

Markets are also still digesting the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea. While most agreements had been priced in beforehand, the two leaders agreed to a one-year trade truce until November 2026. The US will reduce its fentanyl-related tariff from 20% to 10%, and China will remove its 10–15% retaliatory tariffs on various US agricultural products and delay rare earth export controls announced earlier this month. Despite this stabilisation, structural differences persist, and it’s easy for there to be some scepticism of the deal’s scope due to the lack of concrete commitments. The sense that we are seeing more of an extended truce rather than a de-escalation was added to by US Trade Representative Greer confirming last night that the US will continue a recently opened probe into China’s compliance with the limited trade agreement reached during Trump’s first term.

Asian equity markets saw mixed performance this morning, with the Nikkei (+2.03%) and KOSPI (+0.5%) helped by gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 is flat with China risk lagging on poor PMI data.  The CSI (-1.14%), Hang Seng (-0.88%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.75%) are all lower.

With regards to that data, the official manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49.0, compared to the expected 49.6, down from 49.8 in September, and the lowest for 6 months. The non-manufacturing PMI increasing to 50.1 in October as anticipated. However, the weakness in manufacturing has caused the composite PMI to decline to 50.0 in October from 50.6.

In Japan, Tokyo’s core CPI increased by 2.8% in October, surpassing expectations (2.6%) and underscoring ongoing inflationary pressures. Ueda yesterday seemed to place more emphasis on monitoring things like progress on the next spring Shinto wage negotiations and how the economy was dealing with tariff uncertainty. So this higher inflation alone won't seemingly change much. Also in Japan, factory output in September rose by 2.2% from the previous month, exceeding market forecasts of a 1.5% increase, while retail sales showed a modest year-on-year rebound of 0.5%, compared to the expected 0.7%, indicating fragile domestic demand. Additionally, Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly remained stable at 2.6% in September (expectations at 2.5%).

Turning to Europe, the ECB held rates steady at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, citing mixed signals on growth and inflation. President Christine Lagarde reiterated that policy is “in a good place”, though she emphasised it is “not a fixed place”, and the ECB will act as needed to maintain stability. While there were no material surprises, our economists note that if anything the ECB seemed a little more confident about growth amid all the uncertainties, continuing a trend of increasingly less dovish statements. They continue to see the ECB as having reached the end of its easing cycle (see their reaction here). Market expectations for ECB rate cuts remain muted, with just 11.6bps of cuts priced by next September (-0.7bps on the day).

European sovereign yields moved modestly higher, with the 10yr Bund yield up +2.2bps, OATs +1.7bps, and BTPs +1.7bps. That rise in yields was supported by decent Euro area Q3 GDP data, with quarter-on-quarter growth at +0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected). Germany posted flat growth (0.0% vs. 0.0% expected), while France outperformed at +0.5% (vs. +0.2% expected). You can view our economists’ note here. Positives include strong private sector savings, fiscal policy flexibility (except in France), and a less restrictive monetary outlook. However, US tariffs remain a headwind. Despite the stronger-than-expected growth, the Stoxx 600 (-0.10%) lost ground, with France’s CAC (-0.53%) and Spain’s IBEX (-0.68%) leading the decline.

In commodities, gold rebounded above $4,000/oz, rising +2.40%. Brent crude saw a modest gain, climbing to $65.00/bbl (+0.12%), after President Trump indicated that China will begin importing oil and gas from Alaska.

In other news, liberal Dutch leader Rob Jetten is poised to become the next prime minister in the Netherlands after the D66 party performed better than expected in Wednesday’s parliamentary elections. This marks a shift back to the centre following the 2023 elections, which were won by the far-right Freedom Party, now set to lose 11 seats.

Looking ahead to today, the main release will be inflation data in Europe, with October CPI due for France, Italy and the Euro area. We’ll also hear from Fed officials Logan, Hammack, and Bostic, while key earnings reports are expected from ExxonMobil, AbbVie, and Chevron.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 08:37