Zero Hedge

Islamabad Court Bombing Kills 12 - Pakistan Quickly Blames India, Afghanistan

Islamabad Court Bombing Kills 12 - Pakistan Quickly Blames India, Afghanistan

A suicide bombing attack outside a court in Pakistan's capital Islamabad has killed 12 people and injured at least 27 more, and by all reports the carnage could have been worse as the attacker was unable to get inside a district courthouse, the intended target.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has said he "strongly condemned the suicide blast." And Sindh province’s Home Minister Ziaul Hassan Lanjar said in a statement, "Suicide bombers and terrorists have no religion. They are enemies of humanity."

Aftermath of the attack Tuesday, AFP/Getty Images

"As I entered the court building, a huge blast occurred. I thought the entire judiciary building would collapse on me," a court lawyer and eyewitness, Zahid Khan, told CBS News. "When I went upstairs, I saw people lying on the ground around the fire … Just three minutes earlier, I had been at that exact spot while parking my bike."

"I saw many people lying injured, with blood on the road," he said. Smoke had still been visible rising over the area in the wake of the blast.

Importantly Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has quickly laid blame on India, despite suicide bombings not being typical of operations out of India:

Sharif has blamed India for the “suicide attack” in Islamabad as well as the attack on a cadet college that took place near the border with Afghanistan earlier today.

Without providing any evidence to back up his statement, Sharif said: "Both attacks are the worst examples of Indian state terrorism in the region."

"It is time for the world to condemn such nefarious conspiracies of India," he continued in an official government account post on X. "We will continue the war against them until the complete elimination of the scourge of terrorism."

Casting stones at India is typical of rival nuclear-armed power Pakistan, as the neighboring countries have long been bitter enemies, but the past week has seen the Pakistani Taliban, or TTP, as well as some representatives within the Afghan Taliban issue repeat threats against Pakistani cities.

Pakistan's Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif did narrow his blame on Afghan and border terrorism. "Kabul's rulers can stop terrorism in Pakistan, but today's suicide attack at the Islamabad district courts proves this is a nationwide war," Asif said in a statement Tuesday.

"Anyone who believes the Pakistan Army is only fighting on the Afghan-Pakistan border and in remote Balochistan should take this attack as a wake-up call. This is a war for all of Pakistan," he added.

The timing of this attack is interesting related to India, however, as just the day prior a large car blast targeted Red Fort, which is a highly populated tourist destination. It killed eight and wounded many more, after which India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed that the "conspirators" behind the blast "will not be spared," and that "all those responsible will be brought to justice."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 11:20

61% Of Institutions Plan To Boost Crypto Exposure, Despite October Crash; Sygnum

61% Of Institutions Plan To Boost Crypto Exposure, Despite October Crash; Sygnum

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Institutional investors are maintaining confidence in digital assets despite a sharp market correction in October, with most planning to expand their exposure in the months ahead, according to new research.

Over 61% of institutions plan to increase their cryptocurrency investments, while 55% hold a bullish short-term outlook, Swiss crypto banking group Sygnum said in a report released on Tuesday.

The survey covered 1,000 institutional investors globally.

Roughly 73% of surveyed institutions are investing in crypto due to expectations of higher future returns, despite the industry still recovering from the record $20 billion market crash at the beginning of October.

However, investor sentiment continues facing uncertainty due to delays in key market catalysts, including the Market Structure bill and the approval of more altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Institutional crypto allocation plans. Source: Sygnum

While this uncertainty may carry over into 2026, Sygnum’s lead crypto asset ecosystem researcher, Lucas Schweiger, predicts a maturing digital asset market, where institutions seek diversified exposure with long-term growth expectations.

“The story of 2025 is one of measured risk, pending regulatory decisions and powerful demand catalysts against a backdrop of fiscal and geopolitical pressures,” he said, adding:

“But investors are now better informed. Discipline has tempered exuberance, but not conviction, in the market’s long-term growth trajectory.” 

Despite October’s correction, “powerful demand catalysts” and institutional participation remained at an all-time high, with the growing ETF applications signaling more institutional demand, added Schweiger.

At least 16 crypto ETF applications are currently awaiting approval, which were delayed by the ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 40th day.

Crypto staking ETFs may be the next institutional catalyst

Crypto staking ETFs may present the next fundamental catalyst for institutional cryptocurrency demand.

Over 80% of the surveyed institutions expressed interest in crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ether, while 70% stated that they would start investing or increase their investments if these ETFs offered staking rewards.

Staking means locking your tokens into a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain network for a predetermined period to secure the network and earn passive income in exchange.

Meanwhile, investors are now anticipating the end of the government shutdown, which could bring “bulk approvals” for altcoin ETFs from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, catalyzing the “next wave of institutional flows,” according to Sygnum.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 11:00

FBI Seeks To Unmask Anonymous Web Archiving Service Owner

FBI Seeks To Unmask Anonymous Web Archiving Service Owner

Authored by José Niño via Headline USA,

The FBI has issued a subpoena to Canadian domain registrar Tucows seeking to unmask the anonymous owner of Archive.today, a popular web archiving service used by millions worldwide. 

The subpoena, dated last Tuesday and posted publicly on Archive.today’s X account, states it relates to a federal criminal investigation being conducted by the FBI, as The Verge reported. However, the document provides no specific details about what alleged crime is under investigation.

The FBI is requesting comprehensive identifying information from Tucows, including customer or subscriber name, address of service, and billing address associated with Archive.today, per The Verge report.

Beyond basic contact details, the subpoena demands an extensive array of data such as telephone connection records, including incoming and outgoing calls and SMS or MMS records, payment information like credit card or bank account numbers, internet connectivity session times and durations, device identifiers, IP addresses, and details about services used such as email, cloud computing, and gaming services.

The subpoena instructs Tucows not to disclose its existence indefinitely, as any such disclosure could interfere with an ongoing investigation and enforcement of the law, as recounted by Gizmodo. 

That request became moot when Archive.today publicly posted the document. Journalist Max Blumenthal, editor of The Grayzone, drew attention to the subpoena on X, emphasizing that Archive.today is used by journalists and researchers to “document edits to articles, bypass subscription walls and avoid giving traffic to the failing corporate media.”

Launched in 2012, Archive.today functions similarly to the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine but with key differences.

Users can submit URLs to create permanent snapshots of web pages, preserving content before it disappears or changes. 

The service supports ZIP downloads and image based page saves, and crucially, pages are almost never deleted except in extreme cases like child pornography. As AV Club noted, the site gained prominence during the 2014 GamerGate controversy, when users employed it to track article edits while avoiding directing traffic to certain websites.

Very little is known about who runs Archive.today. The original domain was registered in May 2012 by someone using the name Denis Petrov from Prague, Czech Republic, as Gigazine reported. However, this is likely a pseudonym, since Denis Petrov is an extremely common Russian name, and the same contact information was used to register sketchy domains including carding forums and piracy sites.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 10:25

Electric Bill Crisis Blame-Game Begins: Democrats Slam Data Centers, GOP Faults "Climate-Cult Ideology"

Electric Bill Crisis Blame-Game Begins: Democrats Slam Data Centers, GOP Faults "Climate-Cult Ideology"

It only took politicians a little over a year to catch up to our Mid-Atlantic power bill crisis theme (read here), as the battle to control the narrative over surging electricity costs intensifies.

Democrats are pointing the finger at the explosion of data center buildouts and power-hungry server racks, while conservative politicians blame disastrous green-energy policies, specifically, the early retirement of fossil-fuel power generation plants and the rapid rollout of unreliable solar and wind generation. 

On Monday, Sen. Bernie Sanders and several Democratic senators, including Sens. Blumenthal, Van Hollen, Markey, and Wyden, penned a joint letter to the Trump administration and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the adminstration's fast-tracking of AI infrastructure is creating "bidding wars" between households and trillion-dollar companies such as Meta, OpenAI, Alphabet, and Oracle for limited electricity supplies.

"As American families face soaring electricity bills caused by the Trump Administration's sweetheart deals with Big Tech companies, we write to demand information about the failure of the Administration to prevent consumers from being forced to subsidize the cost of data centers — costs compounded by the Administration's reckless abandonment and assault on new, clean energy sources," the senators wrote in the letter. 

Democrats are correct that data centers are certainly fueling the power bill crisis across the Mid-Atlantic states. However, they are never able to tell the whole truth, conveniently leaving out that their climate crisis hoax led to the early retirement of fossil fuel generation plants, which in turn stripped the grids of now much-needed spare capacity. Goldman warned this past summer of "Price-Spikes & Blackouts."

In fact, these Democrats doubled down and blamed this mess on Trump's "assault on clean energy sources." Democrats need a major wake-up call: intermittent green power sources do not provide stable power for data centers. In fact, Spain's nationwide blackout last summer was centered on unreliable renewable energy.

On the opposite side of the political spectrum, the Maryland Freedom Caucus, a coalition of conservative Republican members of the Maryland House of Delegates, joined forces with lawmakers in surrounding states to address skyrocketing power bills.

"Politicians and special interest groups have traded energy independence for a delusional climate cultist ideology, and every Maryland family is paying the price with skyrocketing bills and a rapidly dwindling energy supply," Maryland Delegate Brian Chisholm recently told local outlet Fox Baltimore. 

Chisholm continued, "We stand firmly united with our colleagues in neighboring states to deliver real, adult solutions and finally put an end to the childish nonsense impacting our state."

In a recent note, we cited a Goldman Sachs report by analyst Carly Davenport that found "higher power bill inflation has been the most pronounced in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California in the past three years." Please do note, these regions and states are governed by leftist politicians wearing climate crisis blinders, ones that even Bill Gates had to take off last month after he acknowledged the whole climate crisis narrative was fake news.

Why is it that Democrat-run states are experiencing the brunt of the power bill crisis? Is it grid mismanagement?

Davenport added more color:

Residential utility bill inflation has accelerated in certain regions, raising concerns about customer affordability. A few states in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic such as MD, CT, DE and DC, as well as California, have seen accumulated bill inflation of 29% in the past three years (20pp above CPI), while other states such as MI, ND, AR, SD and LA had bill growth of only 5% in the same period (Exhibit 2). Interestingly, the states with higher bill inflation during this period have deregulated or competitive power markets, and those with lower inflation are in traditional regulated markets. We provide more details on power market fundamentals and utility bills within.

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States Hit Hardest by Power Bill Crisis

While Democrats are busy pushing their affordability narrative ahead of the 2026 midterms and blaming data centers for the power bill crisis, they're conveniently ignoring one key fact: their so-called "climate crisis" agenda has gutted America's power grid. By forcing the early retirement of fossil-fuel plants and replacing them with unreliable solar and wind, they've stripped the grid of critical spare capacity, a policy failure now colliding head-on with the data center power surge.

What's clear is that political parties will be ramping up their own narratives about why power bills are exploding in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

This is happening much sooner than we anticipated. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 10:05

Electric Bill Crisis Blame-Game Begins: Democrats Slam Data Centers, GOP Faults "Climate-Cult Ideology"

Electric Bill Crisis Blame-Game Begins: Democrats Slam Data Centers, GOP Faults "Climate-Cult Ideology"

It only took politicians a little over a year to catch up to our Mid-Atlantic power bill crisis theme (read here), as the battle to control the narrative over surging electricity costs intensifies.

Democrats are pointing the finger at the explosion of data center buildouts and power-hungry server racks, while conservative politicians blame disastrous green-energy policies, specifically, the early retirement of fossil-fuel power generation plants and the rapid rollout of unreliable solar and wind generation. 

On Monday, Sen. Bernie Sanders and several Democratic senators, including Sens. Blumenthal, Van Hollen, Markey, and Wyden, penned a joint letter to the Trump administration and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the adminstration's fast-tracking of AI infrastructure is creating "bidding wars" between households and trillion-dollar companies such as Meta, OpenAI, Alphabet, and Oracle for limited electricity supplies.

"As American families face soaring electricity bills caused by the Trump Administration's sweetheart deals with Big Tech companies, we write to demand information about the failure of the Administration to prevent consumers from being forced to subsidize the cost of data centers — costs compounded by the Administration's reckless abandonment and assault on new, clean energy sources," the senators wrote in the letter. 

Democrats are correct that data centers are certainly fueling the power bill crisis across the Mid-Atlantic states. However, they are never able to tell the whole truth, conveniently leaving out that their climate crisis hoax led to the early retirement of fossil fuel generation plants, which in turn stripped the grids of now much-needed spare capacity. Goldman warned this past summer of "Price-Spikes & Blackouts."

In fact, these Democrats doubled down and blamed this mess on Trump's "assault on clean energy sources." Democrats need a major wake-up call: intermittent green power sources do not provide stable power for data centers. In fact, Spain's nationwide blackout last summer was centered on unreliable renewable energy.

On the opposite side of the political spectrum, the Maryland Freedom Caucus, a coalition of conservative Republican members of the Maryland House of Delegates, joined forces with lawmakers in surrounding states to address skyrocketing power bills.

"Politicians and special interest groups have traded energy independence for a delusional climate cultist ideology, and every Maryland family is paying the price with skyrocketing bills and a rapidly dwindling energy supply," Maryland Delegate Brian Chisholm recently told local outlet Fox Baltimore. 

Chisholm continued, "We stand firmly united with our colleagues in neighboring states to deliver real, adult solutions and finally put an end to the childish nonsense impacting our state."

In a recent note, we cited a Goldman Sachs report by analyst Carly Davenport that found "higher power bill inflation has been the most pronounced in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California in the past three years." Please do note, these regions and states are governed by leftist politicians wearing climate crisis blinders, ones that even Bill Gates had to take off last month after he acknowledged the whole climate crisis narrative was fake news.

Why is it that Democrat-run states are experiencing the brunt of the power bill crisis? Is it grid mismanagement?

Davenport added more color:

Residential utility bill inflation has accelerated in certain regions, raising concerns about customer affordability. A few states in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic such as MD, CT, DE and DC, as well as California, have seen accumulated bill inflation of 29% in the past three years (20pp above CPI), while other states such as MI, ND, AR, SD and LA had bill growth of only 5% in the same period (Exhibit 2). Interestingly, the states with higher bill inflation during this period have deregulated or competitive power markets, and those with lower inflation are in traditional regulated markets. We provide more details on power market fundamentals and utility bills within.

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States Hit Hardest by Power Bill Crisis

While Democrats are busy pushing their affordability narrative ahead of the 2026 midterms and blaming data centers for the power bill crisis, they're conveniently ignoring one key fact: their so-called "climate crisis" agenda has gutted America's power grid. By forcing the early retirement of fossil-fuel plants and replacing them with unreliable solar and wind, they've stripped the grid of critical spare capacity, a policy failure now colliding head-on with the data center power surge.

What's clear is that political parties will be ramping up their own narratives about why power bills are exploding in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

This is happening much sooner than we anticipated. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 10:05

Trump Asks Supreme Court To Take Up E. Jean Carroll's Defamation Case

Trump Asks Supreme Court To Take Up E. Jean Carroll's Defamation Case

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has asked the Supreme Court to wade into his defamation dispute with author E. Jean Carroll, alleging that an appeals court failed to recognize multiple evidentiary flaws that led to an adverse verdict for him.

Trump’s legal team told The Epoch Times it filed a petition for writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court on Nov. 10. The justices have not yet decided whether to take up the case.

“The American People stand with President Trump as they demand an immediate end to all of the Witch Hunts, including the Democrat-funded travesty of the Carroll Hoaxes,” a spokesman for Trump’s legal team told The Epoch Times.

“President Trump will keep winning against Liberal Lawfare, as he continues to focus on his mission to Make America Great Again.”

The petition, which has been reviewed by The Epoch Times, is the latest development in a years-long saga surrounding Carroll’s allegation that Trump sexually assaulted her in a department store at some point during the 1990s. Trump has repeatedly denied the allegations.

Carroll sued him for defamation and won more than $80 million in two trials. Trump’s petition to the Supreme Court concerns a December 2024 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit that upheld the verdict in one of the trials. That trial resulted in a $5 million award for Carroll.

The purported evidentiary errors in that trial prevented Trump from fully contesting Carroll’s case in another trial that resulted in an award of $83 million, Trump’s attorneys argued. The Second Circuit later upheld that larger verdict in a decision from September.

According to Trump’s attorneys, the Second Circuit’s 2024 opinion misinterpreted the Federal Rules of Evidence and wrongly allowed Carroll to rely on propensity evidence, or evidence that purported to show Trump had a propensity to act in a particular way.

One of those pieces of evidence was the Access Hollywood Tape released during the 2016 presidential election. Trump’s attorneys also took issue with allowing testimony from two women who accused Trump of unwanted touching and kissing.

In its 2024 decision, the Second Circuit rejected Trump’s criticisms of the lower court’s handling of the evidence.

“On review for abuse of discretion, we conclude that Mr. Trump has not demonstrated that the district court erred in any of the challenged rulings,” an unsigned opinion read.

“Further, he has not carried his burden to show that any claimed error or combination of claimed errors affected his substantial rights as required to warrant a new trial.”

An attorney who represented Carroll in the Second Circuit did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment before publishing time. In a briefing to the court, Carroll’s attorneys called Trump’s evidentiary arguments “empty.”

“There was no error here, let alone a violation of Trump’s substantial rights.”

Trump attempted to have the whole circuit rehear the case, but was denied in June, with two judges dissenting from that decision.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 09:50

Trump Asks Supreme Court To Take Up E. Jean Carroll's Defamation Case

Trump Asks Supreme Court To Take Up E. Jean Carroll's Defamation Case

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has asked the Supreme Court to wade into his defamation dispute with author E. Jean Carroll, alleging that an appeals court failed to recognize multiple evidentiary flaws that led to an adverse verdict for him.

Trump’s legal team told The Epoch Times it filed a petition for writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court on Nov. 10. The justices have not yet decided whether to take up the case.

“The American People stand with President Trump as they demand an immediate end to all of the Witch Hunts, including the Democrat-funded travesty of the Carroll Hoaxes,” a spokesman for Trump’s legal team told The Epoch Times.

“President Trump will keep winning against Liberal Lawfare, as he continues to focus on his mission to Make America Great Again.”

The petition, which has been reviewed by The Epoch Times, is the latest development in a years-long saga surrounding Carroll’s allegation that Trump sexually assaulted her in a department store at some point during the 1990s. Trump has repeatedly denied the allegations.

Carroll sued him for defamation and won more than $80 million in two trials. Trump’s petition to the Supreme Court concerns a December 2024 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit that upheld the verdict in one of the trials. That trial resulted in a $5 million award for Carroll.

The purported evidentiary errors in that trial prevented Trump from fully contesting Carroll’s case in another trial that resulted in an award of $83 million, Trump’s attorneys argued. The Second Circuit later upheld that larger verdict in a decision from September.

According to Trump’s attorneys, the Second Circuit’s 2024 opinion misinterpreted the Federal Rules of Evidence and wrongly allowed Carroll to rely on propensity evidence, or evidence that purported to show Trump had a propensity to act in a particular way.

One of those pieces of evidence was the Access Hollywood Tape released during the 2016 presidential election. Trump’s attorneys also took issue with allowing testimony from two women who accused Trump of unwanted touching and kissing.

In its 2024 decision, the Second Circuit rejected Trump’s criticisms of the lower court’s handling of the evidence.

“On review for abuse of discretion, we conclude that Mr. Trump has not demonstrated that the district court erred in any of the challenged rulings,” an unsigned opinion read.

“Further, he has not carried his burden to show that any claimed error or combination of claimed errors affected his substantial rights as required to warrant a new trial.”

An attorney who represented Carroll in the Second Circuit did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment before publishing time. In a briefing to the court, Carroll’s attorneys called Trump’s evidentiary arguments “empty.”

“There was no error here, let alone a violation of Trump’s substantial rights.”

Trump attempted to have the whole circuit rehear the case, but was denied in June, with two judges dissenting from that decision.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 09:50

EU Eyes Huawei Ban Over Half-Decade After Trump Flagged 'Security Danger'

EU Eyes Huawei Ban Over Half-Decade After Trump Flagged 'Security Danger'

Once again Donald Trump has proven himself light-years ahead of Europe in foreseeing major security issues and deep flaws in EU policy.

It was of course all the way back in President Trump's first term that he first signed the May 2019 executive order seeking to block Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei from selling equipment in the US, as tech comms by "a foreign adversary" could likely to create an "undue risk of sabotage" or else "catastrophic effects" to US infrastructure, particularly related to sensitive communications systems.

Now, well over a half-decade later and European Union is weighing the possibility of mandating that all member states prohibit the use of Huawei and ZTE equipment in their telecommunications networks. Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting the possible move based on unnamed sources Monday and Tuesday.

Image source: Light Reading

And not just that but the new policy would actually have teeth behind it as the EU’s current recommendations would become binding regulations. Member states that fail to comply could face sanctions, which clearly reflects much-belated growing concerns about national security risks linked to Chinese technology companies.

Again, this is something Trump has warned about all along, which earlier was met with a collective shrug in Brussels. Back in 2019 while on a state visit to European countries he had proclaimed, "I do think it's a security risk, it's a security danger."

But like on a number of other issues, such as importation of Russian energy, EU members are not lockstep and on the same page, with outliers like Greece and Spain continuing to rely on Chinese suppliers.

Once again this represents uneven security standards across the bloc, which apparently EU leadership is only very late wising up to when it comes to the threat of Chinese tech embedded within European comms and systems.

Bloomberg writes in a fresh report:

Commission Vice President Henna Virkkunen wants to convert the European Commission’s 2020 recommendation to stop using high-risk vendors in mobile networks into a legal requirement, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private. 

While infrastructure decisions rest with national governments, Virkkunen’s proposal would compel EU countries to align with the commission’s security guidance. If the recommendations become legally binding, member countries that don’t follow the rules could face a so-called infringement procedure and financial penalties.

"The security of our 5G networks is crucial for our economy," commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier has said this week.

And Bloomberg continues, "Virkkunen is examining ways to limit the use of Chinese equipment suppliers in fixed-line networks, as countries push for the rapid deployment of state-of-the-art fiber cables to expand high-speed internet access."

Widely viewed by critics as committing intellectual property theft, a violator of trade regulations, and a security risk, Huawei has already been barred from accessing key American technologies and their associated suppliers. Nevertheless, the company managed to release a fairly advanced 5G smartphone in late 2023, and its 5G network equipment continues to hold a strong position in the market.

China's foreign ministry has reacted to the latest news as follows: "Certain countries’ forced removal of secure and high-quality Chinese telecom equipment has not only delayed their own technological progress but also caused significant economic losses," according to spokesman Lin Jian. "Politicizing economic and trade issues under the guise of security will hinder technological advancement and economic development."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 09:35

EU Eyes Huawei Ban Over Half-Decade After Trump Flagged 'Security Danger'

EU Eyes Huawei Ban Over Half-Decade After Trump Flagged 'Security Danger'

Once again Donald Trump has proven himself light-years ahead of Europe in foreseeing major security issues and deep flaws in EU policy.

It was of course all the way back in President Trump's first term that he first signed the May 2019 executive order seeking to block Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei from selling equipment in the US, as tech comms by "a foreign adversary" could likely to create an "undue risk of sabotage" or else "catastrophic effects" to US infrastructure, particularly related to sensitive communications systems.

Now, well over a half-decade later and European Union is weighing the possibility of mandating that all member states prohibit the use of Huawei and ZTE equipment in their telecommunications networks. Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting the possible move based on unnamed sources Monday and Tuesday.

Image source: Light Reading

And not just that but the new policy would actually have teeth behind it as the EU’s current recommendations would become binding regulations. Member states that fail to comply could face sanctions, which clearly reflects much-belated growing concerns about national security risks linked to Chinese technology companies.

Again, this is something Trump has warned about all along, which earlier was met with a collective shrug in Brussels. Back in 2019 while on a state visit to European countries he had proclaimed, "I do think it's a security risk, it's a security danger."

But like on a number of other issues, such as importation of Russian energy, EU members are not lockstep and on the same page, with outliers like Greece and Spain continuing to rely on Chinese suppliers.

Once again this represents uneven security standards across the bloc, which apparently EU leadership is only very late wising up to when it comes to the threat of Chinese tech embedded within European comms and systems.

Bloomberg writes in a fresh report:

Commission Vice President Henna Virkkunen wants to convert the European Commission’s 2020 recommendation to stop using high-risk vendors in mobile networks into a legal requirement, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private. 

While infrastructure decisions rest with national governments, Virkkunen’s proposal would compel EU countries to align with the commission’s security guidance. If the recommendations become legally binding, member countries that don’t follow the rules could face a so-called infringement procedure and financial penalties.

"The security of our 5G networks is crucial for our economy," commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier has said this week.

And Bloomberg continues, "Virkkunen is examining ways to limit the use of Chinese equipment suppliers in fixed-line networks, as countries push for the rapid deployment of state-of-the-art fiber cables to expand high-speed internet access."

Widely viewed by critics as committing intellectual property theft, a violator of trade regulations, and a security risk, Huawei has already been barred from accessing key American technologies and their associated suppliers. Nevertheless, the company managed to release a fairly advanced 5G smartphone in late 2023, and its 5G network equipment continues to hold a strong position in the market.

China's foreign ministry has reacted to the latest news as follows: "Certain countries’ forced removal of secure and high-quality Chinese telecom equipment has not only delayed their own technological progress but also caused significant economic losses," according to spokesman Lin Jian. "Politicizing economic and trade issues under the guise of security will hinder technological advancement and economic development."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 09:35

Russia Claims It Thwarted British & Ukrainian Plot To Steal Hypersonic Missile-Equipped Jet

Russia Claims It Thwarted British & Ukrainian Plot To Steal Hypersonic Missile-Equipped Jet

In an entirely bizarre - though perhaps not completely without precedent - allegation from the Russian government, Ukrainian and British intelligence attempted to steal a MiG-31 fighter jet equipped with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that it had thwarted the alleged plot in which the foreign spies allegedly offered Russian pilots $3 million if they would perform the heist.

Via The Aviationist 

The RIA news agency quoted the FSB as saying the stolen aircraft was intended to be flown toward a NATO base in the Romanian city of Constanta.

"The measures taken have thwarted the Ukrainian and British intelligence services’ plans for a large-scale provocation," RIA quoted the FSB as saying.

But this is where the high-risk caper and narrative gets even stranger. The FSB isn't alleging that Ukraine was simply trying to steal the Russian hypersonic missile or aircraft in order to use it, but that the whole objective was to see the MiG-31 get shot down while inbound over NATO-member Romania's airspace

"In order to hijack the aircraft, Ukrainian military intelligence officers tried to recruit Russian pilots, offering $3 million," the FSB statement reads. "The special services then planned to send the jet with the Kinzhal missile to the area where NATO's largest airbase in southeastern Europe is located, in the Romanian city of Constanta, where it could be shot down by air defenses," it emphasized.

Apparently Russian intelligence is saying all of this was ultimately aimed at creative a huge false-flag operation, or major provocation, in order to drastically escalate NATO tensions with Moscow, which would see the West intervene more directly on Kiev's behalf.

Russia's RT has offered a precedent for Ukrainian intelligence seeking to lure Russian pilots to its side, writing the following:

Kiev has previously offered money and assistance to defectors. In 2023, Russian Mi-8 pilot Maksim Kuzminov defected to Ukraine, landing his helicopter behind the front lines with the HUR’s help. Two of the other crew members, unaware of his plan, were killed upon landing. Kuzminov was assassinated a year later in Spain, where he was living under a new identity and with a Ukrainian passport.

In 2022, the FSB accused former Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev, a Bulgarian-born journalist, of taking part in a failed Ukrainian attempt to recruit Russian military pilots. Grozev said he was embedded with Ukrainian intelligence officers as a documentary filmmaker and claimed that his text messages were forged.

NATO operations in Constanta currently serve as a significant hub for the military alliance's operations in Eastern Europe, with at least 5,000 multi-national troops stationed there. These numbers are expected to grow as the NATO base there is undergoing expansion.

As for the fresh FSB claims of the attempted jet and hypersonic missile theft, Ukraine and the UK will no doubt express outrage and denial, but it does serve to illustrate the level of suspicion and 'shadow wars' currently raging in the background related to the Ukraine conflict.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 09:00

Russia Claims It Thwarted British & Ukrainian Plot To Steal Hypersonic Missile-Equipped Jet

Russia Claims It Thwarted British & Ukrainian Plot To Steal Hypersonic Missile-Equipped Jet

In an entirely bizarre - though perhaps not completely without precedent - allegation from the Russian government, Ukrainian and British intelligence attempted to steal a MiG-31 fighter jet equipped with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that it had thwarted the alleged plot in which the foreign spies allegedly offered Russian pilots $3 million if they would perform the heist.

Via The Aviationist 

The RIA news agency quoted the FSB as saying the stolen aircraft was intended to be flown toward a NATO base in the Romanian city of Constanta.

"The measures taken have thwarted the Ukrainian and British intelligence services’ plans for a large-scale provocation," RIA quoted the FSB as saying.

But this is where the high-risk caper and narrative gets even stranger. The FSB isn't alleging that Ukraine was simply trying to steal the Russian hypersonic missile or aircraft in order to use it, but that the whole objective was to see the MiG-31 get shot down while inbound over NATO-member Romania's airspace

"In order to hijack the aircraft, Ukrainian military intelligence officers tried to recruit Russian pilots, offering $3 million," the FSB statement reads. "The special services then planned to send the jet with the Kinzhal missile to the area where NATO's largest airbase in southeastern Europe is located, in the Romanian city of Constanta, where it could be shot down by air defenses," it emphasized.

Apparently Russian intelligence is saying all of this was ultimately aimed at creative a huge false-flag operation, or major provocation, in order to drastically escalate NATO tensions with Moscow, which would see the West intervene more directly on Kiev's behalf.

Russia's RT has offered a precedent for Ukrainian intelligence seeking to lure Russian pilots to its side, writing the following:

Kiev has previously offered money and assistance to defectors. In 2023, Russian Mi-8 pilot Maksim Kuzminov defected to Ukraine, landing his helicopter behind the front lines with the HUR’s help. Two of the other crew members, unaware of his plan, were killed upon landing. Kuzminov was assassinated a year later in Spain, where he was living under a new identity and with a Ukrainian passport.

In 2022, the FSB accused former Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev, a Bulgarian-born journalist, of taking part in a failed Ukrainian attempt to recruit Russian military pilots. Grozev said he was embedded with Ukrainian intelligence officers as a documentary filmmaker and claimed that his text messages were forged.

NATO operations in Constanta currently serve as a significant hub for the military alliance's operations in Eastern Europe, with at least 5,000 multi-national troops stationed there. These numbers are expected to grow as the NATO base there is undergoing expansion.

As for the fresh FSB claims of the attempted jet and hypersonic missile theft, Ukraine and the UK will no doubt express outrage and denial, but it does serve to illustrate the level of suspicion and 'shadow wars' currently raging in the background related to the Ukraine conflict.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 09:00

Futures Slide As AI Jitters Return After SoftBank Liquidates Nvidia Stake

Futures Slide As AI Jitters Return After SoftBank Liquidates Nvidia Stake

US futures are weaker following the best day for the S&P500 in almost a month and the Nasdaq's best day since late May. The market frontran the catalyst: late on Monday the Senate passed its funding bill, and the House is expected to vote on Weds, as it always eventually does, especially since it has Trump’s full support. The government reopening will give us September data over the next few weeks, but Oct data may skipped as the government  moves on to November. As of 8:00am S&P futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures slide 0.5%, with Mag7/Semis/AI themes all are under pressure as NVDA (-1.5%) saw major shareholder SoftBank exit its entire stake to play other AI themes and CRWV (-8.9%) cut is forecast which it blamed on AI supply chain bottlenecks that triggered customer fulfilment delays. USD is flat as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day. Commodities are higher led by Energy and Metals. Today’s macro data focus is on NFIB Small Business Survey, ADP’s new weekly job report, and AMD’s analyst day.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower as Nvidia falls 1.6% after SoftBank Group sold its stake in the chip giant (Apple 0.0%, Microsoft -0.3%, Amazon -0.1%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta Platforms -1.2%, Tesla -0.7%)

  • BigBear.ai (BBAI) jumps 18% after the software firm reported revenue for the third quarter that beat Wall Street estimates.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 10% after the cloud-computing provider reported its third-quarter results and said a data-center delay would impact fourth-quarter expectations.
  • Gemini Space Station (GEMI) shares fall 7% as the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss reported a steeper loss than analysts anticipated in its first earnings release since going public.
  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 4% after the recently merged media company raised its target for job cuts and cost-saving measures.
  • RealReal (REAL) rises 15% after the online marketplace for luxury goods boosted its revenue guidance for the full year to beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Rigetti Computing (RGTI) falls 3% after the quantum-computing firm reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 9% after the space-transportation company reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Surmodics (SRDX) rises 48% after saying a federal court rejected a request by the FTC and some state regulators for a preliminary injunction blocking the company’s acquisition by GTCR.

In other corporate news, First Brands’ new CEO testified that within weeks of arriving, he uncovered evidence of massive financial fraud at the auto-parts company. Intel’s Chief Technology and AI Officer has left the company to take a role at OpenAI, where he’ll work on the startup’s infrastructure efforts. Paramount Skydance raised its post-merger savings target to $3 billion and will invest $1.5 billion in additional 2026 spend for Paramount+ streaming services and other initiatives.

The record-setting 41-day shutdown may end as soon as Wednesday, when the House is expected to vote on a funding measure passed by the Senate. For context, the S&P 500 has posted an average 2.3% gain in the month following the resolution of prior shutdowns, according to data crunched by CFRA’s chief market strategist Sam Stovall. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence team repeats verbatim what we said two weeks ago, and reckons that a reopening of the government could release more liquidity into the market, supporting stocks. The recent rebound has seen bullish option activity pick up while spikes in volatility and hedging cost gauges have been modest.

“The valuations don’t look crazy but they do if there’s nervousness on the growth story,” Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of EMEA fundamental equities at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “That’s why I think the AI story, of which we do remain bullish, we do think while there is a lot further to go, it is likely to be a volatile ride.”

Additionally, Goldman yesterday noted that corporate buybacks are also providing a tailwind to equities now that the earnings season is over. US companies had authorized over $1.2 trillion of buybacks this year through October, an increase of 15% from last year, according to Goldman Sachs research — and November is typically one of the strongest months for buybacks.

Traders have other reasons to feel more optimistic than last week, with the government shutdown looking close to being resolved, corporate buybacks ramping up and positive technicals. Another reason to be bullish is the latest short squeeze: derivatives strategists at Barclays say put open interest increased dramatically last week, causing the put-to-call open interest ratio to spike to near the highest level in two years. This likely reflects increased demand for downside protection, and any time the market jerks higher, all those downside hedges get monetized pushing risk even higher, and/or starting a short squeeze.

Still, doubts over the AI narrative are a fly in the ointment. CoreWeave sank about 9% in premarket trading after the company slashed its revenue forecast. The setback at CoreWeave, which rents out access to powerful artificial intelligence chips, gives investors another reason to worry about the strength of the tech industry at a time when there’s widespread anxiety over valuations. 

Another glitch in the positive mood is news that Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself but was a necessary financing measure, while CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said that he “can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not.” Nvidia shares are slipping in premarket trading.

Source: SoftBank

With earnings season now mostly over, out of the 457 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed. 

European stocks gained for a second day with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.67% as sentiment was boosted by signs that the US government shutdown is nearing an end. UK stocks got a boost after the unemployment rate came in stronger than expected, sending the FTSE 100 up 0.8% and outperforming its regional counterparts. Vodafone shares rise as the telecommunications operator reported upbeat earnings. Consumer products and healthcare shares outperform, while insurance shares lag, with Munich Re a drag after cutting its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.  to 576.65 with 152 members down, 430 up, and 18  unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

  • Vodafone shares rise as much as 7% after reporting positive organic service revenue growth in Germany after five consecutive quarters of decline.
  • Adyen shares rise as much as 4.6% as the payments company set long-term guidance for about 20% net sales growth in years after 2026.
  • Mandatum gains as much as 7.5% to hit a fresh record high, after third-quarter earnings beat estimates.
  • Premier Group advances as much as 7.9%, to its highest intraday level on record, after the company reported first-half 2026 revenue that increased about 6% from the previous comparable period.
  • Munich Re shares decline as much as 3.3%, among the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.
  • Inwit drops as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the tower operator said intense competition and limited cash generation are likely to continue impacting the Italian telecommunications market in the short term.
  • Hensoldt shares fall as much as 9.3% as analysts find the German defense firm’s guidance for next year and for 2030 disappointing and say the company’s valuation is demanding.
  • EDP shares fall as much as 5% after the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold its stake in the Portugese energy company.
  • SKF shares drop as much as 7.7%, pulling back from a record high, after the world’s biggest maker of ball bearings outlined new financial targets that analysts at Jefferies described as “underwhelming.
  • Lundbeck declines as much as 8.4% after Jefferies downgraded the Danish pharmaceutical firm to underperform from hold to account for its “upcoming patent cliff.”
  • Hilton Food shares fall as much as 25%, hitting their lowest level in a decade, after the group cut its full-year guidance and warned profit progression in the next financial year may be “difficult.”

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fluctuated, as investors weighed progress from ending the US government shutdown against lingering risks including stretched tech valuations and the prospect of renewed trade frictions.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up early gains of as much as 0.5% to trade little changed. Korean chip stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance. TSMC fell after posting its slowest monthly revenue growth in over a year, stoking concerns that the AI-driven stock rally has outpaced fundamentals. Sentiment weakened after the Wall Street Journal reported that China will fast-track rare earth export approvals for most firms but exclude those linked to the US military. In China, shares traded in narrow band, with the onshore benchmark dropping 0.9% amid concerns around the rare earth export controls.  While the US will start to receive rare earths, the additional mechanisms to restrict access by the US military “may increase the risk of derailing the current ‘trade truce’ between the two countries,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser for Asia technology at Union Bancaire Privee.

In Fx, the dollar slumped after ADP showed a 11K drop in jobs in the past week, while the pound is down 0.3% and is the weakest of the G-10 currencies.

In rates, Treasury futures slightly lower across the long-end of the strip. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to Veterans Day holiday. Small weakness seen in the long-end implies some bear steepening pressure on the curve, with long-bond and ultra-long bond futures lower by 6 to 7 ticks on the day. UK government bonds have rallied after the unemployment rate rose more than expected and separate tax-based data showed the number of employees on payroll fell more than forecast. Short-end gilts lead the advance, with UK 2-year yields falling 7 bps to 3.74% as traders boosted bets on an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England next month. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year note sale. IG dollar issuance slate empty, but expected to pick up again Wednesday. Verizon’s $11bn five-part deal headlined a nine-deal $19.25bn US investment-grade primary docket Monday. Issuers paid about 6bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.6 times covered,Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year notes, followed by $25 billion 30-year bonds Thursday. Monday’s 3-year note auction achieved solid results

In commodities, spot gold rises $23 to around $4,139/oz. WTI crude futures rise 0.4% to near $60.40 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 0.5%.

The US economic calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr on AI and innovation at 10:25pm

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
  • DAX +0.1%
  • CAC 40 +0.7%
  • 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.12%
  • VIX +0.4 points at 17.95
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.53
  • euro +0.1% at $1.1572
  • WTI crude +0.3% at $60.3/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The Senate passed legislation on Monday night (vote was 60-40) to end the nation’s longest government shutdown, after a critical splinter group of Democrats joined with Republicans and backed a spending package that omitted the chief concession their party had spent weeks demanding. The measure goes next to the House, which is expected to take it up no sooner than Wednesday. NYT
  • SoftBank has sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8 billion, as the global tech investor shakes its pockets for cash to plow into its massive bet on OpenAI: WSJ
  • Obamacare subsidies face an uncertain future as Democrats scramble to find Republican support for an extension before they expire at the end of 2025. BBG
  • China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms. WSJ  
  • India’s top refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russian oil for next month, people familiar said, signaling that Western sanctions and trade talks with the US are having a major impact on buying patterns. BBG
  • Trump said the US is getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with India. BBG
  • The U.K.’s jobs market continued to creak in the third quarter, making it more likely that the Bank of England will cut borrowing costs in December after it narrowly chose to keep rates on hold last week. UK saw a 20bp M/M uptick in the unemployment rate to 5% (vs. 4.8% in Aug and ahead of the Street’s 4.9% forecast) while wage growth cooled. WSJ
  • US flight cuts are set to increase even as Congress works to end the shutdown. The FAA has ordered airlines to scale back national operations by 6% today, a number to rise to 10% from Friday. BBG
  • AI data centers draw political scrutiny as some accuse the infrastructure building boom of driving up electricity prices. WSJ
  • CoreWeave shares fell premarket (CRWV -10% premkt) after the company cut its forecast due to a data center delay. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

  • China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user’ system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.
  • China's Foreign Minister Wang held a phone call with Canada's Foreign Minister on Tuesday and said China is willing to strengthen communication with Canada and willing to accelerate the resumption of exchanges and cooperation in various fields, while he added that diplomatic, commercial and other departments of their countries can properly resolve concerns.
  • Switzerland is close to sealing a 15% tariff deal with the US and could be completed as early as Thursday or Friday, via Reuters citing sources. Deal is not certain until US President Trump has given his approval.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally. ASX 200 faded its early advances as the outperformance in gold stocks and miners was negated by weakness in  tech and the top-weighted financial sector following CBA's modest earnings growth, while the improvement in Consumer Sentiment to a 7-year high did little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 initially rallied amid currency weakness and as participants digested earnings results, but eventually wiped out all of its gains as sentiment soured. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid losses in tech, including Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, which failed to benefit, despite it being China's Singles' Day, which is the world's largest shopping event, as sales had begun weeks earlier in an effort to boost sluggish spending.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said they are aware that high inflation is weighing on private consumption, and that a weak yen pushes up prices through higher import costs. Kiuchi added they will expand and implement measures to cushion the impacts of higher prices, as well as continue to aim for wage growth exceeding inflation.
  • China State Planner Official says private investment has slowed down this year. Adds that there's challenges in private investment. Energy official says it will increase policy supply for attracting private investment in energy. There's plan to support Private Investment to flow to high value service sectors. Aims to encourage private firms to enter the tech sector. Some of the new policy-based financial tool allowed to support private investment in key areas.
  • PBoC issues its Q3 monetary policy implementation report:. Policy: To implement appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen transmission of policy. To keep liquidity ample. To maintain FX flexibility and prevent overshooting risks. Will maintain reasonable relative relationships among various types of interest rates. Global Situation: External situation unstable and uncertain Economy: Economy faces may risks and challenges. To increase efforts to support consumption and tech innovation. To stabilise growth, jobs, and market expectations. Foundation for economic recovery needs to be enhanced. To maintain reasonable growth in total amount of finance. Need to consolidate economic recovery. Inflation: To maintain prices at reasonable level Banks: To reduce cost of bank's liability. To fend off financial systemic risks.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened stronger across the board and have held towards best levels throughout the European morning. The FTSE 100 outperforms today, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which has pressured the GBP and slightly increased odds of a December rate cut at the BoE. European sectors hold a positive bias, with notable strength in Consumer Products & Services, Health Care, and Construction. Gains in Consumer Products & Services are led by LVMH (+1.7%), after reports the company plans to open several flagship stores across China in December, amidst early indications of a regional recovery.

Top European News

  • European Commission has begun setting up a new intelligence body under President Ursula von der Leyen, in an attempt to improve the use of information gathered by national spy agencies, according to FT.
  • ECB's Elderson says "current [rate] level is appropriate, but we will continue to be data-dependent and will decide one meeting at a time". "Our monetary policy is in a good place. It’s true that the economic environment remains uncertain, so we cannot commit to a pre-determined interest rate path". Elderson cites risks of higher inflation from supply fragmentation and defence spending. "Among the risks of lower inflation, I would include the appreciation of the euro, which could reduce demand for euro area exports; and a re-routing to the euro area of products previously shipped to the United States". "We do, of course, monitor the euro’s exchange rate against other currencies because it could affect inflation". Elderson says policy should not undermine banking mergers. Elderson argues mergers must be judged on technical and prudential criteria.
  • ECB's Vujcic says the risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Economically in a good place. Frontloading of tariffs is still unwinding. Consumers are still very cautious in Europe. Market valuations are stretched. A bit concerned that retail participation in stock markets are growing faster than hedge funds.
  • BoE's Greene says risk management around inflation needs to influence policy views. Policy: Policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise. Not convinced that policy is meaningfully restrictive. Labour Market: Latest unemployment report is not great. Problems with the labour force survey make it hard to know what is happening. Inflation: Household inflation expectations are at the very top of expectations. Worried about inflation persistence. Wages: The weaker wage data is good news. Wage settlements data for next year from surveys is higher than we would like to see. Latest data suggests that the disinflationary process is on track. Wages are still "way too high" given weak growth. Says the market pricing of 3.25-3.50% for the neutral rate is reasonable.

FX

  • The DXY holds steady through the European session, mirroring the subdued tone from APAC trade, after a mild softening earlier in the week. Market reaction was muted to the Senate’s approval of the government funding bill—largely in line with expectations—with attention now turning to the House, where Speaker Johnson aims for a Wednesday vote on the stopgap measure. The DXY trades within a tight 99.60–99.74 band, comfortably inside Monday’s 99.46–99.74 range, with resistance seen at the November 7th high of 99.87. No move seen on lower-than-prior US NFIB; inner report suggested "many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so".
  • EUR/USD remains directionless, confined to a narrow range amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone and with no move seen to the ZEW survey or to ECB commentary. Germany’s ZEW survey disappointed, with commentary noting that while government investment plans may offer short-term support, “structural problems continue to exist". ECB commentary offered little new insight: Vujčić said inflation risks are now broadly balanced, while Elderson reiterated that the current rate level is “appropriate,” stressing continued data dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach. The pair trades comfortably within Monday’s 1.1541–1.1583 range
  • GBP/USD slipped lower in early trade after a lacklustre overnight session, weighed by weaker-than-expected UK labour data. Employment contracted, the jobless rate ticked higher than expectations, while earnings ex-bonus matched forecasts. The release prompted a swift GBP/USD drop from 1.3153 to 1.3121, while EUR/GBP climbed from 0.8781 to 0.8804 within eight minutes. BoE rate expectations turned slightly more dovish, with a full 25bps cut now fully priced for February (vs. 98.8% pre-data). Post-data, BoE’s Greene noted the unemployment report was “not great” and cautioned that survey issues cloud the labour market picture. She added that policy “needs to be more restrictive than otherwise,” but remains unconvinced that current settings are “meaningfully restrictive". GBP/USD trades near the lower end of a 1.3116–1.3178 band
  • USD/JPY ticked higher overnight, briefly reclaiming the 154.00 handle before paring gains as broader risk sentiment softened. The session has offered little in the way of fresh domestic catalysts, with price action largely dictated by cautious risk tone and subdued cross-asset moves. The pair continues to consolidate within a 154.03–154.49 range.
  • The Antipodeans drifted lower through the APAC session, giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains that were driven by improved risk sentiment. AUD/USD eased further from its 100DMA (0.6539) after encountering resistance at that level yesterday, with the pair trading within a 0.6515–0.6537 band.

Fixed Income

  • US Treasury futures are essentially flat, after being pressured overnight; price action today is exceptionally thin, with volumes light as the US observes Veterans’ Day, where cash bond trading will be shut. Currently in a narrow 112-20 to 112-22+ range, with catalysts seemingly light for the remainder of the day, aside from the US NFIB Business Optimism Index and Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP. On the trade front, some progress between US-India with the POTUS suggesting they “are getting close”. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Switzerland is near a deal to cut the US tariff on its exports to 15% from 39%, with an agreement possible within two weeks.
  • Bunds are incrementally lower/flat and trade in a 129.97-129.11 range. Specifics are incredibly light heading into the ZEW survey, aside from a few ECB speakers' comments, which ultimately lacked surprises. To recap, Elderson said current rates are appropriate and will continue to take a data-dependent approach. Elsewhere, Vujcic said risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Price action today has been lacklustre. Initially bid on the release of the UK jobs report (discussed below), before being capped at and trading sideways for the remainder of the morning, awaiting ZEW data. That failed to budge Bunds – German ZEW Current/Economic Conditions were both weaker than expected.
  • Gilts are the clear outperformers today, boosted following a poor regional jobs report, which has raised the odds of a December rate cut (-18bps vs -15.5bps pre-release). UK paper is currently trading in a 93.53 to 93.69 range, and with price action fairly lacklustre since the open. To recap the latest data, the figures were very poor; Employment Chance contracted by 22k (exp. 0k), whilst the unemployment rate ticked a little higher to 5% - interestingly, the 3M Avg. Earnings printed at 4.8% (exp. 5%). Overall, metrics are conducive to a cut in December, but the focus ultimately remains firmly on inflation developments, highlighted by Governor Bailey at the most recent confab. Following the report, Greene suggested that the “latest unemployment report is not great”, but described the wage data as “good news”. She also highlighted that policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise, citing worries re. inflation persistence.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks traded choppy throughout the APAC session but saw some strength as the European session got underway, as the risk sentiment remains high and attacks on Russian refineries continue. Just as reports that Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, crude benchmarks surged c. USD 0.60/bbl higher and are currently trading near session highs at USD 60.43/bbl and USD 64.43/bbl.
  • Spot XAU has continued to bid higher as the European session got underway as participants hope for further Fed easing. XAU followed on from Monday’s trend day to a peak of USD 4149/oz during the APAC session before pulling back to a low of USD 4125/oz. As the session switched over, European traders haven’t yet managed to extend the day’s parameters but are currently trading near session highs at USD 4144/oz.
  • Base metals remain rangebound amid a lack of market catalysts. 3M LME Copper gapped higher to open at USD 10.84k/t before oscillating in a tight USD 10.8k-10.86k/t band as the European session continued.
  • Five big Indian refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russia oil for December, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
  • UBS expects global gold demand this year and next to reach its strongest level since 2011.
  • Commerzbank metals year-end forecasts: Copper USD 10,500/t (prev. 9,600/t). Aluminium USD 2,900/t (prev. 2,600/t). Zinc USD 3,000/t (prev. 2,800/t). Gold USD 4,200/oz. Nickel USD 15,000/t (prev. 16,000/t). Silver USD 50/oz. Platinum USD 1,700/oz. Palladium USD 1,400/oz.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US President Trump posted "It was an Honor to spend time with Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, the new President of Syria, where we discussed all the intricacies of PEACE in the Middle East, of which he is a major advocate. I look forward to meeting and speaking again. Everyone is talking about the Great Miracle that is taking place in the Middle East. Having a stable and successful Syria is very important to all countries in the Region."
  • Turkish Foreign Minister said they discussed Syria and Gaza in talks with US and Syrian counterparts, US VP Vance, Trump aide Witkoff, and special envoy Barrack. He added that US officials understand that Syria needs to be united, and that problems in south and north Syria risk dividing the country.
  • US is reportedly planning to build a large military base in Israel’s Gaza border region, according to Israeli press citing Israeli sources; the facility would be used by international forces operating in Gaza to help maintain the ceasefire. Facility could accommodate several thousand soldiers. They estimated the project’s budget at roughly USD 500mln.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

  • Ukrainian drone attack damaged civilian infrastructure in Russia's Saratov, according to the regional governor.
  • Russian security services reportedly foiled a joint Ukrainian-British operation to hijack a Russian MiG-31 equipped with a hypersonic missile, according to RIA.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Thai Defence Minister announced the halting of ceasefire implementation steps and return of Cambodian prisoner of war, while he said they will explain to Malaysia and the US regarding the Thai decision on the ceasefire.

US Event Calendar

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:44

Futures Slide As AI Jitters Return After SoftBank Liquidates Nvidia Stake

Futures Slide As AI Jitters Return After SoftBank Liquidates Nvidia Stake

US futures are weaker following the best day for the S&P500 in almost a month and the Nasdaq's best day since late May. The market frontran the catalyst: late on Monday the Senate passed its funding bill, and the House is expected to vote on Weds, as it always eventually does, especially since it has Trump’s full support. The government reopening will give us September data over the next few weeks, but Oct data may skipped as the government  moves on to November. As of 8:00am S&P futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures slide 0.5%, with Mag7/Semis/AI themes all are under pressure as NVDA (-1.5%) saw major shareholder SoftBank exit its entire stake to play other AI themes and CRWV (-8.9%) cut is forecast which it blamed on AI supply chain bottlenecks that triggered customer fulfilment delays. USD is flat as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day. Commodities are higher led by Energy and Metals. Today’s macro data focus is on NFIB Small Business Survey, ADP’s new weekly job report, and AMD’s analyst day.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower as Nvidia falls 1.6% after SoftBank Group sold its stake in the chip giant (Apple 0.0%, Microsoft -0.3%, Amazon -0.1%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta Platforms -1.2%, Tesla -0.7%)

  • BigBear.ai (BBAI) jumps 18% after the software firm reported revenue for the third quarter that beat Wall Street estimates.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 10% after the cloud-computing provider reported its third-quarter results and said a data-center delay would impact fourth-quarter expectations.
  • Gemini Space Station (GEMI) shares fall 7% as the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss reported a steeper loss than analysts anticipated in its first earnings release since going public.
  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 4% after the recently merged media company raised its target for job cuts and cost-saving measures.
  • RealReal (REAL) rises 15% after the online marketplace for luxury goods boosted its revenue guidance for the full year to beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Rigetti Computing (RGTI) falls 3% after the quantum-computing firm reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 9% after the space-transportation company reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Surmodics (SRDX) rises 48% after saying a federal court rejected a request by the FTC and some state regulators for a preliminary injunction blocking the company’s acquisition by GTCR.

In other corporate news, First Brands’ new CEO testified that within weeks of arriving, he uncovered evidence of massive financial fraud at the auto-parts company. Intel’s Chief Technology and AI Officer has left the company to take a role at OpenAI, where he’ll work on the startup’s infrastructure efforts. Paramount Skydance raised its post-merger savings target to $3 billion and will invest $1.5 billion in additional 2026 spend for Paramount+ streaming services and other initiatives.

The record-setting 41-day shutdown may end as soon as Wednesday, when the House is expected to vote on a funding measure passed by the Senate. For context, the S&P 500 has posted an average 2.3% gain in the month following the resolution of prior shutdowns, according to data crunched by CFRA’s chief market strategist Sam Stovall. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence team repeats verbatim what we said two weeks ago, and reckons that a reopening of the government could release more liquidity into the market, supporting stocks. The recent rebound has seen bullish option activity pick up while spikes in volatility and hedging cost gauges have been modest.

“The valuations don’t look crazy but they do if there’s nervousness on the growth story,” Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of EMEA fundamental equities at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “That’s why I think the AI story, of which we do remain bullish, we do think while there is a lot further to go, it is likely to be a volatile ride.”

Additionally, Goldman yesterday noted that corporate buybacks are also providing a tailwind to equities now that the earnings season is over. US companies had authorized over $1.2 trillion of buybacks this year through October, an increase of 15% from last year, according to Goldman Sachs research — and November is typically one of the strongest months for buybacks.

Traders have other reasons to feel more optimistic than last week, with the government shutdown looking close to being resolved, corporate buybacks ramping up and positive technicals. Another reason to be bullish is the latest short squeeze: derivatives strategists at Barclays say put open interest increased dramatically last week, causing the put-to-call open interest ratio to spike to near the highest level in two years. This likely reflects increased demand for downside protection, and any time the market jerks higher, all those downside hedges get monetized pushing risk even higher, and/or starting a short squeeze.

Still, doubts over the AI narrative are a fly in the ointment. CoreWeave sank about 9% in premarket trading after the company slashed its revenue forecast. The setback at CoreWeave, which rents out access to powerful artificial intelligence chips, gives investors another reason to worry about the strength of the tech industry at a time when there’s widespread anxiety over valuations. 

Another glitch in the positive mood is news that Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself but was a necessary financing measure, while CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said that he “can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not.” Nvidia shares are slipping in premarket trading.

Source: SoftBank

With earnings season now mostly over, out of the 457 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed. 

European stocks gained for a second day with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.67% as sentiment was boosted by signs that the US government shutdown is nearing an end. UK stocks got a boost after the unemployment rate came in stronger than expected, sending the FTSE 100 up 0.8% and outperforming its regional counterparts. Vodafone shares rise as the telecommunications operator reported upbeat earnings. Consumer products and healthcare shares outperform, while insurance shares lag, with Munich Re a drag after cutting its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.  to 576.65 with 152 members down, 430 up, and 18  unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

  • Vodafone shares rise as much as 7% after reporting positive organic service revenue growth in Germany after five consecutive quarters of decline.
  • Adyen shares rise as much as 4.6% as the payments company set long-term guidance for about 20% net sales growth in years after 2026.
  • Mandatum gains as much as 7.5% to hit a fresh record high, after third-quarter earnings beat estimates.
  • Premier Group advances as much as 7.9%, to its highest intraday level on record, after the company reported first-half 2026 revenue that increased about 6% from the previous comparable period.
  • Munich Re shares decline as much as 3.3%, among the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.
  • Inwit drops as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the tower operator said intense competition and limited cash generation are likely to continue impacting the Italian telecommunications market in the short term.
  • Hensoldt shares fall as much as 9.3% as analysts find the German defense firm’s guidance for next year and for 2030 disappointing and say the company’s valuation is demanding.
  • EDP shares fall as much as 5% after the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold its stake in the Portugese energy company.
  • SKF shares drop as much as 7.7%, pulling back from a record high, after the world’s biggest maker of ball bearings outlined new financial targets that analysts at Jefferies described as “underwhelming.
  • Lundbeck declines as much as 8.4% after Jefferies downgraded the Danish pharmaceutical firm to underperform from hold to account for its “upcoming patent cliff.”
  • Hilton Food shares fall as much as 25%, hitting their lowest level in a decade, after the group cut its full-year guidance and warned profit progression in the next financial year may be “difficult.”

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fluctuated, as investors weighed progress from ending the US government shutdown against lingering risks including stretched tech valuations and the prospect of renewed trade frictions.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up early gains of as much as 0.5% to trade little changed. Korean chip stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance. TSMC fell after posting its slowest monthly revenue growth in over a year, stoking concerns that the AI-driven stock rally has outpaced fundamentals. Sentiment weakened after the Wall Street Journal reported that China will fast-track rare earth export approvals for most firms but exclude those linked to the US military. In China, shares traded in narrow band, with the onshore benchmark dropping 0.9% amid concerns around the rare earth export controls.  While the US will start to receive rare earths, the additional mechanisms to restrict access by the US military “may increase the risk of derailing the current ‘trade truce’ between the two countries,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser for Asia technology at Union Bancaire Privee.

In Fx, the dollar slumped after ADP showed a 11K drop in jobs in the past week, while the pound is down 0.3% and is the weakest of the G-10 currencies.

In rates, Treasury futures slightly lower across the long-end of the strip. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to Veterans Day holiday. Small weakness seen in the long-end implies some bear steepening pressure on the curve, with long-bond and ultra-long bond futures lower by 6 to 7 ticks on the day. UK government bonds have rallied after the unemployment rate rose more than expected and separate tax-based data showed the number of employees on payroll fell more than forecast. Short-end gilts lead the advance, with UK 2-year yields falling 7 bps to 3.74% as traders boosted bets on an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England next month. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year note sale. IG dollar issuance slate empty, but expected to pick up again Wednesday. Verizon’s $11bn five-part deal headlined a nine-deal $19.25bn US investment-grade primary docket Monday. Issuers paid about 6bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.6 times covered,Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year notes, followed by $25 billion 30-year bonds Thursday. Monday’s 3-year note auction achieved solid results

In commodities, spot gold rises $23 to around $4,139/oz. WTI crude futures rise 0.4% to near $60.40 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 0.5%.

The US economic calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr on AI and innovation at 10:25pm

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
  • DAX +0.1%
  • CAC 40 +0.7%
  • 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.12%
  • VIX +0.4 points at 17.95
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.53
  • euro +0.1% at $1.1572
  • WTI crude +0.3% at $60.3/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The Senate passed legislation on Monday night (vote was 60-40) to end the nation’s longest government shutdown, after a critical splinter group of Democrats joined with Republicans and backed a spending package that omitted the chief concession their party had spent weeks demanding. The measure goes next to the House, which is expected to take it up no sooner than Wednesday. NYT
  • SoftBank has sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8 billion, as the global tech investor shakes its pockets for cash to plow into its massive bet on OpenAI: WSJ
  • Obamacare subsidies face an uncertain future as Democrats scramble to find Republican support for an extension before they expire at the end of 2025. BBG
  • China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms. WSJ  
  • India’s top refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russian oil for next month, people familiar said, signaling that Western sanctions and trade talks with the US are having a major impact on buying patterns. BBG
  • Trump said the US is getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with India. BBG
  • The U.K.’s jobs market continued to creak in the third quarter, making it more likely that the Bank of England will cut borrowing costs in December after it narrowly chose to keep rates on hold last week. UK saw a 20bp M/M uptick in the unemployment rate to 5% (vs. 4.8% in Aug and ahead of the Street’s 4.9% forecast) while wage growth cooled. WSJ
  • US flight cuts are set to increase even as Congress works to end the shutdown. The FAA has ordered airlines to scale back national operations by 6% today, a number to rise to 10% from Friday. BBG
  • AI data centers draw political scrutiny as some accuse the infrastructure building boom of driving up electricity prices. WSJ
  • CoreWeave shares fell premarket (CRWV -10% premkt) after the company cut its forecast due to a data center delay. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

  • China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user’ system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.
  • China's Foreign Minister Wang held a phone call with Canada's Foreign Minister on Tuesday and said China is willing to strengthen communication with Canada and willing to accelerate the resumption of exchanges and cooperation in various fields, while he added that diplomatic, commercial and other departments of their countries can properly resolve concerns.
  • Switzerland is close to sealing a 15% tariff deal with the US and could be completed as early as Thursday or Friday, via Reuters citing sources. Deal is not certain until US President Trump has given his approval.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally. ASX 200 faded its early advances as the outperformance in gold stocks and miners was negated by weakness in  tech and the top-weighted financial sector following CBA's modest earnings growth, while the improvement in Consumer Sentiment to a 7-year high did little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 initially rallied amid currency weakness and as participants digested earnings results, but eventually wiped out all of its gains as sentiment soured. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid losses in tech, including Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, which failed to benefit, despite it being China's Singles' Day, which is the world's largest shopping event, as sales had begun weeks earlier in an effort to boost sluggish spending.

Top Asian News

  • Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said they are aware that high inflation is weighing on private consumption, and that a weak yen pushes up prices through higher import costs. Kiuchi added they will expand and implement measures to cushion the impacts of higher prices, as well as continue to aim for wage growth exceeding inflation.
  • China State Planner Official says private investment has slowed down this year. Adds that there's challenges in private investment. Energy official says it will increase policy supply for attracting private investment in energy. There's plan to support Private Investment to flow to high value service sectors. Aims to encourage private firms to enter the tech sector. Some of the new policy-based financial tool allowed to support private investment in key areas.
  • PBoC issues its Q3 monetary policy implementation report:. Policy: To implement appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen transmission of policy. To keep liquidity ample. To maintain FX flexibility and prevent overshooting risks. Will maintain reasonable relative relationships among various types of interest rates. Global Situation: External situation unstable and uncertain Economy: Economy faces may risks and challenges. To increase efforts to support consumption and tech innovation. To stabilise growth, jobs, and market expectations. Foundation for economic recovery needs to be enhanced. To maintain reasonable growth in total amount of finance. Need to consolidate economic recovery. Inflation: To maintain prices at reasonable level Banks: To reduce cost of bank's liability. To fend off financial systemic risks.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened stronger across the board and have held towards best levels throughout the European morning. The FTSE 100 outperforms today, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which has pressured the GBP and slightly increased odds of a December rate cut at the BoE. European sectors hold a positive bias, with notable strength in Consumer Products & Services, Health Care, and Construction. Gains in Consumer Products & Services are led by LVMH (+1.7%), after reports the company plans to open several flagship stores across China in December, amidst early indications of a regional recovery.

Top European News

  • European Commission has begun setting up a new intelligence body under President Ursula von der Leyen, in an attempt to improve the use of information gathered by national spy agencies, according to FT.
  • ECB's Elderson says "current [rate] level is appropriate, but we will continue to be data-dependent and will decide one meeting at a time". "Our monetary policy is in a good place. It’s true that the economic environment remains uncertain, so we cannot commit to a pre-determined interest rate path". Elderson cites risks of higher inflation from supply fragmentation and defence spending. "Among the risks of lower inflation, I would include the appreciation of the euro, which could reduce demand for euro area exports; and a re-routing to the euro area of products previously shipped to the United States". "We do, of course, monitor the euro’s exchange rate against other currencies because it could affect inflation". Elderson says policy should not undermine banking mergers. Elderson argues mergers must be judged on technical and prudential criteria.
  • ECB's Vujcic says the risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Economically in a good place. Frontloading of tariffs is still unwinding. Consumers are still very cautious in Europe. Market valuations are stretched. A bit concerned that retail participation in stock markets are growing faster than hedge funds.
  • BoE's Greene says risk management around inflation needs to influence policy views. Policy: Policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise. Not convinced that policy is meaningfully restrictive. Labour Market: Latest unemployment report is not great. Problems with the labour force survey make it hard to know what is happening. Inflation: Household inflation expectations are at the very top of expectations. Worried about inflation persistence. Wages: The weaker wage data is good news. Wage settlements data for next year from surveys is higher than we would like to see. Latest data suggests that the disinflationary process is on track. Wages are still "way too high" given weak growth. Says the market pricing of 3.25-3.50% for the neutral rate is reasonable.

FX

  • The DXY holds steady through the European session, mirroring the subdued tone from APAC trade, after a mild softening earlier in the week. Market reaction was muted to the Senate’s approval of the government funding bill—largely in line with expectations—with attention now turning to the House, where Speaker Johnson aims for a Wednesday vote on the stopgap measure. The DXY trades within a tight 99.60–99.74 band, comfortably inside Monday’s 99.46–99.74 range, with resistance seen at the November 7th high of 99.87. No move seen on lower-than-prior US NFIB; inner report suggested "many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so".
  • EUR/USD remains directionless, confined to a narrow range amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone and with no move seen to the ZEW survey or to ECB commentary. Germany’s ZEW survey disappointed, with commentary noting that while government investment plans may offer short-term support, “structural problems continue to exist". ECB commentary offered little new insight: Vujčić said inflation risks are now broadly balanced, while Elderson reiterated that the current rate level is “appropriate,” stressing continued data dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach. The pair trades comfortably within Monday’s 1.1541–1.1583 range
  • GBP/USD slipped lower in early trade after a lacklustre overnight session, weighed by weaker-than-expected UK labour data. Employment contracted, the jobless rate ticked higher than expectations, while earnings ex-bonus matched forecasts. The release prompted a swift GBP/USD drop from 1.3153 to 1.3121, while EUR/GBP climbed from 0.8781 to 0.8804 within eight minutes. BoE rate expectations turned slightly more dovish, with a full 25bps cut now fully priced for February (vs. 98.8% pre-data). Post-data, BoE’s Greene noted the unemployment report was “not great” and cautioned that survey issues cloud the labour market picture. She added that policy “needs to be more restrictive than otherwise,” but remains unconvinced that current settings are “meaningfully restrictive". GBP/USD trades near the lower end of a 1.3116–1.3178 band
  • USD/JPY ticked higher overnight, briefly reclaiming the 154.00 handle before paring gains as broader risk sentiment softened. The session has offered little in the way of fresh domestic catalysts, with price action largely dictated by cautious risk tone and subdued cross-asset moves. The pair continues to consolidate within a 154.03–154.49 range.
  • The Antipodeans drifted lower through the APAC session, giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains that were driven by improved risk sentiment. AUD/USD eased further from its 100DMA (0.6539) after encountering resistance at that level yesterday, with the pair trading within a 0.6515–0.6537 band.

Fixed Income

  • US Treasury futures are essentially flat, after being pressured overnight; price action today is exceptionally thin, with volumes light as the US observes Veterans’ Day, where cash bond trading will be shut. Currently in a narrow 112-20 to 112-22+ range, with catalysts seemingly light for the remainder of the day, aside from the US NFIB Business Optimism Index and Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP. On the trade front, some progress between US-India with the POTUS suggesting they “are getting close”. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Switzerland is near a deal to cut the US tariff on its exports to 15% from 39%, with an agreement possible within two weeks.
  • Bunds are incrementally lower/flat and trade in a 129.97-129.11 range. Specifics are incredibly light heading into the ZEW survey, aside from a few ECB speakers' comments, which ultimately lacked surprises. To recap, Elderson said current rates are appropriate and will continue to take a data-dependent approach. Elsewhere, Vujcic said risks are balanced around inflation and that recent growth and inflation are higher than forecast. Price action today has been lacklustre. Initially bid on the release of the UK jobs report (discussed below), before being capped at and trading sideways for the remainder of the morning, awaiting ZEW data. That failed to budge Bunds – German ZEW Current/Economic Conditions were both weaker than expected.
  • Gilts are the clear outperformers today, boosted following a poor regional jobs report, which has raised the odds of a December rate cut (-18bps vs -15.5bps pre-release). UK paper is currently trading in a 93.53 to 93.69 range, and with price action fairly lacklustre since the open. To recap the latest data, the figures were very poor; Employment Chance contracted by 22k (exp. 0k), whilst the unemployment rate ticked a little higher to 5% - interestingly, the 3M Avg. Earnings printed at 4.8% (exp. 5%). Overall, metrics are conducive to a cut in December, but the focus ultimately remains firmly on inflation developments, highlighted by Governor Bailey at the most recent confab. Following the report, Greene suggested that the “latest unemployment report is not great”, but described the wage data as “good news”. She also highlighted that policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise, citing worries re. inflation persistence.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks traded choppy throughout the APAC session but saw some strength as the European session got underway, as the risk sentiment remains high and attacks on Russian refineries continue. Just as reports that Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, crude benchmarks surged c. USD 0.60/bbl higher and are currently trading near session highs at USD 60.43/bbl and USD 64.43/bbl.
  • Spot XAU has continued to bid higher as the European session got underway as participants hope for further Fed easing. XAU followed on from Monday’s trend day to a peak of USD 4149/oz during the APAC session before pulling back to a low of USD 4125/oz. As the session switched over, European traders haven’t yet managed to extend the day’s parameters but are currently trading near session highs at USD 4144/oz.
  • Base metals remain rangebound amid a lack of market catalysts. 3M LME Copper gapped higher to open at USD 10.84k/t before oscillating in a tight USD 10.8k-10.86k/t band as the European session continued.
  • Five big Indian refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russia oil for December, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
  • UBS expects global gold demand this year and next to reach its strongest level since 2011.
  • Commerzbank metals year-end forecasts: Copper USD 10,500/t (prev. 9,600/t). Aluminium USD 2,900/t (prev. 2,600/t). Zinc USD 3,000/t (prev. 2,800/t). Gold USD 4,200/oz. Nickel USD 15,000/t (prev. 16,000/t). Silver USD 50/oz. Platinum USD 1,700/oz. Palladium USD 1,400/oz.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US President Trump posted "It was an Honor to spend time with Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, the new President of Syria, where we discussed all the intricacies of PEACE in the Middle East, of which he is a major advocate. I look forward to meeting and speaking again. Everyone is talking about the Great Miracle that is taking place in the Middle East. Having a stable and successful Syria is very important to all countries in the Region."
  • Turkish Foreign Minister said they discussed Syria and Gaza in talks with US and Syrian counterparts, US VP Vance, Trump aide Witkoff, and special envoy Barrack. He added that US officials understand that Syria needs to be united, and that problems in south and north Syria risk dividing the country.
  • US is reportedly planning to build a large military base in Israel’s Gaza border region, according to Israeli press citing Israeli sources; the facility would be used by international forces operating in Gaza to help maintain the ceasefire. Facility could accommodate several thousand soldiers. They estimated the project’s budget at roughly USD 500mln.

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

  • Ukrainian drone attack damaged civilian infrastructure in Russia's Saratov, according to the regional governor.
  • Russian security services reportedly foiled a joint Ukrainian-British operation to hijack a Russian MiG-31 equipped with a hypersonic missile, according to RIA.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Thai Defence Minister announced the halting of ceasefire implementation steps and return of Cambodian prisoner of war, while he said they will explain to Malaysia and the US regarding the Thai decision on the ceasefire.

US Event Calendar

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:44

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Recent announcements of large layoffs at a few prominent companies have raised concerns that the labor market could be weakening further, and today's new weekly ADP employment report confirms that fear.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023...

ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its long-running monthly report.

They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.

So far, Goldman does not find clear evidence that most of the increase in these layoff measures is directly motivated by AI, although tech industries saw meaningful increases in layoffs in October across both measures.

At the same time, initial jobless claims - which are less noisy and more representative but could lag layoff announcements and WARN notices - remain low.

Goldman complements these data with a new tool to track layoff discussions among publicly listed companies based on earnings call transcripts. 

Their tool suggests that layoff-focused discussions have increased recently, particularly in the ongoing 2025Q3 earnings calls. We find that layoff discussions increase after companies discuss AI in earnings calls at least a few times, although this pattern has only recently started to emerge for non-tech companies. 

We combine Challenger announcements, WARN notices, initial claims, and earnings call mentions into a layoff tracker.

Goldman's tracker has increased in October and is now higher than before the pandemic.

Our quantile regressions based on the level of our layoff tracker, the level of our job growth tracker net of the breakeven pace of job growth, and changes in our slack tracker indicate that the risk of labor market deterioration has increased recently, with the probability of a 0.5pp or higher increase in the unemployment rate over the next six months at 20-25% (vs. 10% six months ago).

Finally, sentiment among US small businesses eased in October to a six-month low on a deterioration in earnings and less optimism about the economy.

The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index declined 0.6 point to 98.2, according to figures released Tuesday. Five of the 10 components that make up the gauge decreased while four improved.

The net share of owners reporting stronger earnings in the last three months fell 9 percentage points, the most since the pandemic and restrained by weaker sales and higher materials costs.

While labor quality continued to rank as the top problem for small businesses, owners were relatively sanguine about hiring challenges. Just 32% reported they were unable to fill job openings, matching the lowest since the end of 2020. The share reporting few or no qualified applicants for vacancies was one of the smallest in that time frame.

However, there was a small decrease in hiring plans in the next three months, marking the first decline since May.

Somewhat surprisingly, given those numbers, new data shows a collapse in immigrant work applications...

So, is the labor market's difficulty a supply issue after all?

The result of all this is a rise in rate-cut odds and a drop in the dollar...

Cash bonds are closed for Veterans Day but futs signal a drop of about 4bps for the 10Y yield...

Stocks are largely unmoved.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:42

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Dollar Dumps As ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, Small Biz Optimism Hits 6 Month Lows

Recent announcements of large layoffs at a few prominent companies have raised concerns that the labor market could be weakening further, and today's new weekly ADP employment report confirms that fear.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023...

ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its long-running monthly report.

They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.

So far, Goldman does not find clear evidence that most of the increase in these layoff measures is directly motivated by AI, although tech industries saw meaningful increases in layoffs in October across both measures.

At the same time, initial jobless claims - which are less noisy and more representative but could lag layoff announcements and WARN notices - remain low.

Goldman complements these data with a new tool to track layoff discussions among publicly listed companies based on earnings call transcripts. 

Their tool suggests that layoff-focused discussions have increased recently, particularly in the ongoing 2025Q3 earnings calls. We find that layoff discussions increase after companies discuss AI in earnings calls at least a few times, although this pattern has only recently started to emerge for non-tech companies. 

We combine Challenger announcements, WARN notices, initial claims, and earnings call mentions into a layoff tracker.

Goldman's tracker has increased in October and is now higher than before the pandemic.

Our quantile regressions based on the level of our layoff tracker, the level of our job growth tracker net of the breakeven pace of job growth, and changes in our slack tracker indicate that the risk of labor market deterioration has increased recently, with the probability of a 0.5pp or higher increase in the unemployment rate over the next six months at 20-25% (vs. 10% six months ago).

Finally, sentiment among US small businesses eased in October to a six-month low on a deterioration in earnings and less optimism about the economy.

The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index declined 0.6 point to 98.2, according to figures released Tuesday. Five of the 10 components that make up the gauge decreased while four improved.

The net share of owners reporting stronger earnings in the last three months fell 9 percentage points, the most since the pandemic and restrained by weaker sales and higher materials costs.

While labor quality continued to rank as the top problem for small businesses, owners were relatively sanguine about hiring challenges. Just 32% reported they were unable to fill job openings, matching the lowest since the end of 2020. The share reporting few or no qualified applicants for vacancies was one of the smallest in that time frame.

However, there was a small decrease in hiring plans in the next three months, marking the first decline since May.

Somewhat surprisingly, given those numbers, new data shows a collapse in immigrant work applications...

So, is the labor market's difficulty a supply issue after all?

The result of all this is a rise in rate-cut odds and a drop in the dollar...

Cash bonds are closed for Veterans Day but futs signal a drop of about 4bps for the 10Y yield...

Stocks are largely unmoved.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:42

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

The lead up to a Turning Point USA event on Monday night at UC Berkeley was filled with violence and mayhem, as aggressive protesters banged against barriers, set off a smoke grenade, and screamed at attendees waiting in line as law enforcement worked to keep things from spiraling into uncontrolled chaos.

The event, featuring Christian apologist Frank Turek and conservative actor Rob Schneider, was able to take place despite the raucous Antifa-led protest, which included a fight that turned bloody.

“Aerial footage captured a violent confrontation in which a person dressed in dark clothing pummeled someone wearing a red T-shirt on the sidewalk outside the event. Dozens of people remained in line as tensions flared, creating what [was] described as a rowdy scene,” Fox News reported.

Savanah Hernandez, a TPUSA contributor, posted a series of videos on X depicting the chaos.

“UC Berkeley is currently a war zone and ANTIFA has tried to rush the barriers into tonight’s TPUSA event multiple times. The crowd is getting more and more rowdy,” she posted Monday evening.

“Here are the two main agitators who continued to try to break down the event barriers tonight. One is covered in trans flag patches reading ‘fags against fascism’ and the other is an Asian protester who kept his face covered throughout the night,” she added.

Hernandez also noted protesters tried to storm the barriers, posting videos showing cops seeking to push back aggressive demonstrators.

“Protesters are trying to break through the barriers set up outside of the TPUSA event at UC Berkeley. A smoke grenade was lit off by an ANTIFA protester resulting in TPUSA attendees being rushed inside. Police are struggle to contain the protest,” she posted on X.

The event kicked off with TPUSA contributor Jobob Taeleifi, who congratulated the audience for making it into the auditorium.

“Despite all the craziness, despite all the liberal policies, we believe the Bay Area can be saved,” he said. “We need more spaces of courage — not more safe spaces — and all you showed great courage showing up here tonight.”

Schneider posted on X: “Thank YOU, Antifa for welcoming us tonight at UC Berkeley. We Look forward to our thoughtful, teargas free discussion and debate.”

During his speech, the actor decried UC Berkeley administrators, saying they set up stringent roadblocks that kept people from attending the event: “Shame on the assholes at this university for making it so difficult to get in … shame on you.”

According to a post by TPUSA, attendees were threatened by Antifa and called Nazis and fascists, and Charlie Kirk’s death was celebrated.

Protests began prior to the event, according to Fox News: “Prior to the protest, four students were arrested overnight for vandalism related to the event. Flyers opposing Turning Point USA’s visit were also posted around campus leading up to the tour stop.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:25

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

'War Zone': Violent Protest Erupts At UC Berkeley TPUSA Event

Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

The lead up to a Turning Point USA event on Monday night at UC Berkeley was filled with violence and mayhem, as aggressive protesters banged against barriers, set off a smoke grenade, and screamed at attendees waiting in line as law enforcement worked to keep things from spiraling into uncontrolled chaos.

The event, featuring Christian apologist Frank Turek and conservative actor Rob Schneider, was able to take place despite the raucous Antifa-led protest, which included a fight that turned bloody.

“Aerial footage captured a violent confrontation in which a person dressed in dark clothing pummeled someone wearing a red T-shirt on the sidewalk outside the event. Dozens of people remained in line as tensions flared, creating what [was] described as a rowdy scene,” Fox News reported.

Savanah Hernandez, a TPUSA contributor, posted a series of videos on X depicting the chaos.

“UC Berkeley is currently a war zone and ANTIFA has tried to rush the barriers into tonight’s TPUSA event multiple times. The crowd is getting more and more rowdy,” she posted Monday evening.

“Here are the two main agitators who continued to try to break down the event barriers tonight. One is covered in trans flag patches reading ‘fags against fascism’ and the other is an Asian protester who kept his face covered throughout the night,” she added.

Hernandez also noted protesters tried to storm the barriers, posting videos showing cops seeking to push back aggressive demonstrators.

“Protesters are trying to break through the barriers set up outside of the TPUSA event at UC Berkeley. A smoke grenade was lit off by an ANTIFA protester resulting in TPUSA attendees being rushed inside. Police are struggle to contain the protest,” she posted on X.

The event kicked off with TPUSA contributor Jobob Taeleifi, who congratulated the audience for making it into the auditorium.

“Despite all the craziness, despite all the liberal policies, we believe the Bay Area can be saved,” he said. “We need more spaces of courage — not more safe spaces — and all you showed great courage showing up here tonight.”

Schneider posted on X: “Thank YOU, Antifa for welcoming us tonight at UC Berkeley. We Look forward to our thoughtful, teargas free discussion and debate.”

During his speech, the actor decried UC Berkeley administrators, saying they set up stringent roadblocks that kept people from attending the event: “Shame on the assholes at this university for making it so difficult to get in … shame on you.”

According to a post by TPUSA, attendees were threatened by Antifa and called Nazis and fascists, and Charlie Kirk’s death was celebrated.

Protests began prior to the event, according to Fox News: “Prior to the protest, four students were arrested overnight for vandalism related to the event. Flyers opposing Turning Point USA’s visit were also posted around campus leading up to the tour stop.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:25

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

In another warning sign for the AI bubble, one we've been tracking closely, from the accelerating AI-linked debt binge and widening Oracle CDS spreads to repeated cautions from BofA's Michael Hartnett and others - yet another red flag emerged Tuesday morning. 

Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group cashed out its $5.83 billion stake in Nvidia in October and is now raising capital for new AI investments across data centers, robotics, and chip manufacturing. The sale underscores Son's core strategy - buy low, sell high - while positioning SoftBank as a major funder across the global AI ecosystem.

CFO Yoshimitsu Goto told reporters earlier that the sale of its Nvidia stake was part of SoftBank's cycle of "divesting and reinvesting," describing it as the company's "fate" to continually reallocate capital. 

"Our investment in OpenAI is significant, so we plan to use some existing assets to help fund it," Goto said. He declined to comment on whether the timing of the sale had any significance.  

"I can't say if we're in an AI bubble or not," Goto continued, adding that the sale is for "capital can be utilized for our financing." 

Despite our concerns about an AI bubble, outlined in four must-read reports here:

... SoftBank's timing of the sale was very strategic: the Japanese conglomerate had exited Nvidia once before in 2019 but began rebuilding its position in 2020, about two years before the advent of ChatGPT sparked the AI investment boom. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kirk Boodry noted that SoftBank is on track to report its highest annual profit since 2020. "The sale of $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares highlights the company's access to liquidity as it continues its AI investment program." 

Increased liquidity access allows Son to pursue broader investment plans, including the "Stargate" data center network and a $1 trillion AI manufacturing hub in Arizona.

SoftBank has also lined up $20 billion in new loans backed by Arm Holdings and bridge loans to fund OpenAI and Ampere deals.

As a reminder, SoftBank bought a 2% stake in Intel for $2 billion to align with the Trump administration's semiconductor expansion efforts. Goto reminded investors and reporters earlier that the current industry view is healthy enthusiasm and that greater risk lies in underinvesting. 

Shares of SoftBank in Tokyo have tripled this year, peaking at 27,695 yen. 

Goldman analyst Francois Theis reminded clients of SoftBank's 11% stake in Sam Altman's OpenAI, along with its publicly listed holdings and pipeline of upcoming listings.

Softbank has traded as an OpenAI proxy over the summer (similarly to how it traded pre BABA listing) with a discount to NAV sharply shrinking (-14% using the company's assumption post close marking to market their Open AI stake at latest round of valuations at $500B vs the $260B they participated in at earlier this year – model available on request). Post its recapitalisation, Softbank via its SVF2 has now a 11% stake in OpenAI Group PBC ($34.7B investment). They have completed their first tranche and set to proceed with the second and large tranche ($22.5B in Dec. this year)

Impact on listed investments

Pipeline for listing (filed)

Besides selling Nvidia, SoftBank also sold $9.17 billion worth of T-Mobile shares between June and September. Its Vision Fund is also preparing to list more Asian portfolio companies. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:05

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

SoftBank Dumps Entire Nvidia Stake To Double-Down On 'Core AI Enablers'

In another warning sign for the AI bubble, one we've been tracking closely, from the accelerating AI-linked debt binge and widening Oracle CDS spreads to repeated cautions from BofA's Michael Hartnett and others - yet another red flag emerged Tuesday morning. 

Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group cashed out its $5.83 billion stake in Nvidia in October and is now raising capital for new AI investments across data centers, robotics, and chip manufacturing. The sale underscores Son's core strategy - buy low, sell high - while positioning SoftBank as a major funder across the global AI ecosystem.

CFO Yoshimitsu Goto told reporters earlier that the sale of its Nvidia stake was part of SoftBank's cycle of "divesting and reinvesting," describing it as the company's "fate" to continually reallocate capital. 

"Our investment in OpenAI is significant, so we plan to use some existing assets to help fund it," Goto said. He declined to comment on whether the timing of the sale had any significance.  

"I can't say if we're in an AI bubble or not," Goto continued, adding that the sale is for "capital can be utilized for our financing." 

Despite our concerns about an AI bubble, outlined in four must-read reports here:

... SoftBank's timing of the sale was very strategic: the Japanese conglomerate had exited Nvidia once before in 2019 but began rebuilding its position in 2020, about two years before the advent of ChatGPT sparked the AI investment boom. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kirk Boodry noted that SoftBank is on track to report its highest annual profit since 2020. "The sale of $5.8 billion in Nvidia shares highlights the company's access to liquidity as it continues its AI investment program." 

Increased liquidity access allows Son to pursue broader investment plans, including the "Stargate" data center network and a $1 trillion AI manufacturing hub in Arizona.

SoftBank has also lined up $20 billion in new loans backed by Arm Holdings and bridge loans to fund OpenAI and Ampere deals.

As a reminder, SoftBank bought a 2% stake in Intel for $2 billion to align with the Trump administration's semiconductor expansion efforts. Goto reminded investors and reporters earlier that the current industry view is healthy enthusiasm and that greater risk lies in underinvesting. 

Shares of SoftBank in Tokyo have tripled this year, peaking at 27,695 yen. 

Goldman analyst Francois Theis reminded clients of SoftBank's 11% stake in Sam Altman's OpenAI, along with its publicly listed holdings and pipeline of upcoming listings.

Softbank has traded as an OpenAI proxy over the summer (similarly to how it traded pre BABA listing) with a discount to NAV sharply shrinking (-14% using the company's assumption post close marking to market their Open AI stake at latest round of valuations at $500B vs the $260B they participated in at earlier this year – model available on request). Post its recapitalisation, Softbank via its SVF2 has now a 11% stake in OpenAI Group PBC ($34.7B investment). They have completed their first tranche and set to proceed with the second and large tranche ($22.5B in Dec. this year)

Impact on listed investments

Pipeline for listing (filed)

Besides selling Nvidia, SoftBank also sold $9.17 billion worth of T-Mobile shares between June and September. Its Vision Fund is also preparing to list more Asian portfolio companies. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 08:05

U.S. Aluminum Prices Surge To Record Highs As Tariffs Squeeze Supply

U.S. Aluminum Prices Surge To Record Highs As Tariffs Squeeze Supply

Aluminum prices in the U.S. climbed to new record highs on Monday as domestic inventories tightened sharply, driven by the Trump administration’s steel and aluminum tariffs designed to bolster and revitalize America’s industrial base.

According to Bloomberg, the all-in U.S. aluminum price, combining the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark and the U.S. Midwest delivery premium, hit a record high of $4,816 per ton, nearly double the level from the December 2023 lows.

The U.S. remains heavily dependent on foreign aluminum imports, lacking any robust domestic production capacity to satisfy domestic demand. Canada, its largest supplier, has seen shipments fall sharply since President Trump imposed aluminum tariffs in March and later doubled them to 50% in June.

From April to July, U.S. aluminum imports averaged 64,000 tons per month below the 2024 baseline, partially offset by an 18,000-ton increase in scrap imports, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Amy Gower.

Gower noted that the U.S. aluminum inventory has been shrinking by about 46,000 tons per month due to tariff uncertainty, particularly around the U.S.-Canada trade spat.

“However, the destocking likely cannot continue indefinitely, and the recent rise in the Midwest premium suggests that some buying is returning,” she said.

“The steel and aluminum tariffs shut down avenues for circumvention — supporting the continued revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries,” Jeffrey Kessler, the Commerce Department’s under secretary for industry and security, wrote in a statement shortly after the Trump administration unveiled 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 additional product types over the summer.

Meanwhile, aluminum moved higher by .3% to $2,878 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, extending gains after reaching a three-year high last week.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, open interest in aluminum contracts hit a new record of 745,000 lots. Futures are at their highest since last November, driven by supply constraints and elevated demand.

BofA Securities analyst Matty Zhao noted that Chinese aluminum shares are undervalued, as construction of data centers and artificial-intelligence power equipment has fueled demand for the industrial metal.

“We have seen some long-term funds diverted from Chinese stocks to aluminum futures,” Shuohe Asset Management Co. Domestic analyst Gao Yin said, adding that futures will likely move higher.

Rounding back to the U.S., one can only imagine that rising industrial metal prices will add more inflationary cost-push pressures. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 07:45

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